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AP Statistics - Tree Diagrams 1. A university professor fails 20% of his students in the final.

After the final, he polls the students and asks how many of them studied more than 3 hours for it. Of those who passed the final, 72% said that they studied for it. Of those who failed the final, 31% said they studied for it. Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Find the probability that a) a student studies c) if a student studies, he passes e) if a student doesnt study, he fails

b) a student doesnt study d) if a student studies, he fails f) if a student doesnt study, he passes

2. It is estimated that 4% of people who spend time in the woods will get Lyme disease. Of people with Lyme disease, the test to determine if you have it is will. giive a positive reading 97% of the time. Of people who do not have Lyme disease, the same test will give a negative rating 92% of the time. Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Find the probability that a) the a person gets a positive reading c) if the person gets a positive reading, he has Lyme disease e) If a person gets a negative reading, he doesnt have Lyme disease

b) the a person gets a positive reading d) if a person gets a positive reading, he doesnt have Lyme disease f) If a person gets a negative reading, he has Lyme disease

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Stu Schwartz

3. I take a true false test. I studied for it and feel well prepared for it. I estimate that I have a 90% chance of getting a problem correct. On questions I dont know, I will guess. Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Find the probability that a) I answer a question correctly

b) If I got the question correct, it is because I knew it.

4. A prominent university decides admissions according to the following criteria. Students with SATs under 1400 are rejected. Those who are still considered will have their GPA examined. Those with GPAs 3.7 and above are accepted. Those under 3.2 are rejected. Those with GPAs between 3.2 and below 3.7 will have their essays read by 4 admission officers. If 3 out of 4 officers like the essay, then the student is admitted. If not, the student is rejected. Over the years, the following statistics have been compiled: On the average, 57% of students who apply to that university have SATs 1400 or over. Of the students with SATs 1400 and over... 58% have GPAs 3.7 or above 31% have GPAs between 3.2 and 3.7 Of the students who have their essays read, there is a 50% chance that an admission officer will like their essay Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Find the probabilities that a) a student is accepted c) if a student is accepted, he had a GPA of 3.7 or above e) If a student is rejected, its because of his essays
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b) a student is rejected d) if a student is accepted, he got in because of writing good essays f) If a student has SATs ! 1400, he is accepted

Stu Schwartz

AP Statistics - Tree Diagrams 1. A university professor fails 20% of his students in the final. After the final, he polls the students and asks how many of them studied more than 3 hours for it. Of those who passed the final, 72% said that they studied for it. Of those who failed the final, 31% said they studied for it. Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Study - .72

.576

Pass - .8 Doesnt study- .28

.224

Fail - .2

Study - .31

.062

Doesnt study - .69


Find the probability that a) a student studies - .638 c) if a student studies, he passes -

.138

b) a student doesnt study - .362

.576 = .903 .638 .138 = .381 .362

d) if a student studies, he fails -

.062 = .097 .638 .224 = .619 .362

e) if a student doesnt study, he fails

f) if a student doesnt study, he passes -

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Stu Schwartz

2. It is estimated that 4% of people who spend time in the woods will get Lyme disease. Of people with Lyme disease, the test to determine if you have it is will. giive a positive reading 97% of the time. Of people who do not have Lyme disease, the same test will give a negative rating 92% of the time. Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Pos. reading .97 Lyme disease .04

.0388

Neg. reading .03

.0012

No Lyme disease -.96

Neg reading. .92

.8832

Pos reading - .08


Find the probability that a) a person gets a positive reading - .1156 c) if the person gets a positive reading, he has Lyme disease .0388 = .3356 .1156 e) If a person gets a negative reading, he doesnt have Lyme disease .8832 = .9986 .8844

.0768

b) the a person gets a negative reading - .8844 d) if a person gets a positive reading, he doesnt have Lyme disease .0768 = .6644 .1156 f) If a person gets a negative reading, he has Lyme disease .0012 = .0014 .8844

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Stu Schwartz

3. I take a true false test. I studied for it and feel well prepared for it. I estimate that I have a 90% chance of getting a problem correct. On questions I dont know, I will guess. Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

Correct Know the answer - .85

.85

.075 Guess - .15 Correct - .5 Incorrect .5


Find the probability that a) I answer a question correctly - .925 b) If I got the question correct, it is because I knew it.-

.075

.85 = .919 .925

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Stu Schwartz

4. A prominent university decides admissions according to the following criteria. Students with SATs under 1400 are rejected. Those who are still considered will have their GPA examined. Those with GPAs 3.7 and above are accepted. Those under 3.2 are rejected. Those with GPAs between 3.2 and below 3.7 will have their essays read by 4 admission officers. If 3 out of 4 officers like the essay, then the student is admitted. If not, the student is rejected. Over the years, the following statistics have been compiled: On the average, 57% of students who apply to that university have SATs 1400 or over. Of the students with SATs 1400 and over... 58% have GPAs 3.7 or above 31% have GPAs between 3.2 and 3.7 Of the students who have their essays read, there is a 50% chance that an admission officer will like their essay Make a tree diagram for this problem and then answer the following questions.

GPA>3.7 - .58

Accept = .3306 GPA < .32 - .11 Reject - .0627

SAT over 1400 - .57

3.2<GPA<3.7 - .31 Like essay - .3125 Accept - .0552

Dont like essay - .6875 SAT under 1400 - .43


Find the probabilities that a. a student is accepted - .3858 c. if a student is accepted, he had a GPA of .3306 3.7 or above = .8569 .3858 e. If a student is rejected, its because his .1215 essays = .1978 .6142

Reject - .1215 Reject - .43

b. a student is rejected - .6142 d. if a student is accepted, he got in because of writing good essays -

.0552 = .1431 .3858

f. If a student has SATs over 1400, he is accepted .3858 = .6768 .57

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Stu Schwartz