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Kerry Obrien Obama Rudd

Kerry Obrien Obama Rudd

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Political Commentry from Australian Journalist
Political Commentry from Australian Journalist

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Published by: Magelican on Dec 09, 2013
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12/09/2013

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KERRY O'BRIEN, PRESENTER: In the past two days in Washington, Prime inister Ke!in R"dd has had e#tensi!e ta$%s with President Bara&% O'ama, Se&retary o( State )i$ary *$inton, and +e(ense Se&retary Ro'ert ,ates.nd .(ghanistan (eat"red in a$$ three &on!ersationsWe're to$d .meri&a hasn't yet (orma$$y as%ed (or a 'igger ."stra$ian &ommitment to the &ampaign against Ta$i'an and a$ /aeda ins"rgents there, '"t it seems it's 0"st a matter o( timePresident O'ama is a'o"t to "n!ei$ his new po$i&y in .(ghanistan 'ased on an e#ha"sti!e re!iew.nd one man with signi(i&ant inp"t to that re!iew was an ."stra$ian &o"nter1 ins"rgen&y e#pert named +a!id Ki$&"$$en, regarded in Washington as one o( the wor$d's most in($"entia$ e#perts on g"erri$$a war(are- )e was senior ad!iser to ,enera$ +a!id Petrae"s d"ring $ast year's s"rge in Ira2, and to *ondo$ee33a Ri&e.t a time when ."stra$ia's +e(en&e inister 4oe$ 5it3gi''on appears to 'e spe&ta&"$ar$y o((side with his department, +a!id Ki$&"$$en is warning that ."stra$ian troops are a'o"t to e#posed to greater ris% against the Ta$i'an, and that the &on($i&t &o"$d $ast a de&ade+a!id Ki$&"$$en has 0"st &omp$eted an e#ha"sti!e 'oo% on &o"nter1ins"rgen&y &a$$ed the '.&&identa$ ,"erri$$a', and I spo%e with him today o"t o( Washington+a!id Ki$&"$$en, yo"'!e twi&e $ed 6S (ie$d assessment teams in 7889 and $ast year to re!iew the .(ghan &ampaign- What do yo" thin% President O'ama's $atest re!iew wi$$ re&ommend: +.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: I thin% what we're $i%e$y to see is a meas"red in&rease in 'oth &i!i$ian and mi$itary assets in .(ghanistan and I thin% primari$y it's going to 'e a training 'rigade and a &o"p$e o( additiona$ &om'at 'rigades into the so"th o( .(ghanistanKERRY O'BRIEN: .nd is that what yo" thin% sho"$d 'e re&ommended: +.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: The re!iew's 'een !ery &omprehensi!e and in (a&t one o( the interesting things that 'oth ;i&e President Biden and Ri&hard )o$'roo% ha!e said p"'$i&$y is that we need to 'e (o&"sing on a&hie!a'$e o'0e&ti!es and ade2"ate reso"r&es- I thin% that's a !ery sensi'$e way to approa&h the re!iew and they'!e '"i$t on a n"m'er o( re!iews that were done 'y the B"sh administration in the $ast twe$!e months- .nd I thin% one o( the %ey re&ommendations that's di((erent (rom 0"st troop n"m'ers or 0"st assets wi$$ 'e a'o"t (o&"sing on prote&ting the .(ghan pop"$ation where it $i!es primari$y in &ities and sma$$ !i$$ages- That's pro'a'$y the main shi(t that I thin% we=re going to see 0"st aside (rom the sheer n"m'ersKERRY O'BRIEN: Yo"'!e written in the '.&&identa$ ,"erri$$a' that the .(ghan &ampaign may 'e approa&hing a tipping point, and a$tho"gh the &on($i&t might 'e winna'$e, the o!era$$ trend is e#treme$y negati!e- What e!iden&e do yo" 'ase that on: +.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Three years sin&e 788> we'!e see a'o"t a >88 per &ent in&rease in !io$en&e in .(ghanistan- In the same time(rame, the area that's a((e&ted 'y the ins"rgen&y has more than do"'$ed- The &o"nter nar&oti&s &ampaign has, I wo"$d say, sta$$ed- Nar&oti&s hasn't got worse '"t it's sti$$ sti&%ing at s"&h a high $e!e$ that )e$$man pro!in&e, the British pro!in&e, whi&h they are se&"ring, is now the wor$d &apita$ (or opi"m and heroin prod"&tion-

(ghanistan to show how e((e&ti!e$y the Ta$i'an is spreading its in($"en&e. got their weapons and &ame 'a&% and 0oined in 1 and assisted in (ighting the patro$.nd yo" point that a$$ the time the &on($i&t has 'een going on. and it too% them &a$$ing "p (ighter 0ets to e#a&t$y e#tra&t themse$!es (rom the (ight.nd that does happen. I sho"$d say. the other ma0or reason why it's 'een so e((e&ti!e (or them is that they (i$$ed a gap that we'!e &reated 'y sending the po$i&e to (ight the ins"rgents rather than %eeping them with the peop$e to prote&t the pop"$ation- .. BWhy did yo" s"pport the Ta$i'an: We didn't thin% yo" were on the Ta$i'an side-B . right now we ha!e a'o"t @? Shari'ah $aw &o"rts r"nning a&ross !ario"s parts o( the so"th o( . women getting stoned (or ad"$tery and hands getting &"t o(( and so on. the Ta$i'an ha!e 'een '"i$ding the 2"a$ity and sophisti&ation and n"m'ers o( their weapons arsena$+. not the side o( the (oreigner-B . we're going to 0oin in on the side o( the $o&a$ g"y.(ghanistan..*an yo" 'rie($y e#p$ain that point: +.. '"t interesting$y a'o"t A> per &ent o( the wor% o( these &o"rts are what we wo"$d &a$$ &i!i$ or &ommer&ia$ $aw. two things. yo" %now.B"t the Ta$i'an (o&"sed on the $o&a$ $e!e$..nd they said.They do a '"n&h o( things that re$ated to water and gra3ing and essentia$$y they're pro!iding disp"te reso$"tion and mediation ser!i&es at the $o&a$ $e!e$ (or !i$$ages a&ross the so"th o( .. inheritan&e. that wo"$d'!e 'een dishono"ra'$e.I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes.. it was 'e&a"se the $o&a$ peop$e in the !a$$ey went home to their !i$$ages..(ghanistanNow the reason that they are doing it and not the go!ernment is two1(o$d5irst$y. they are getting 'etterKERRY O'BRIEN: In yo"r 'oo% yo" des&ri'e one 'att$e in a mo"ntain !a$$ey in 6r"3gan in 7889 to ma%e a point a'o"t a&&identa$ g"erri$$as and the ris% o( p$aying into the hands o( what yo" &a$$ an a$ /aeda e#ha"stion strategy. yo" %now.The third 'atta$ion o( Spe&ia$ 5or&es gro"p.nd we &o"$dn't sit it o"t.nd we'!e a$so seen a drop in s"pport (or 'oth the internationa$ presen&e and the Kar3ai go!ernment o( 78 or ?8 per&entage points in that time (rame. where a $ot o( the peop$e that are (ighting "s aren't (ighting "s 'e&a"se they're ideo$ogi&a$$y &ommitted to a$ /aeda or to the Ta$i'an or any o( the other e#tremist gro"p. 7889.nd when yo" hear the term Shari'ah $aw &o"rt.(ter the 'att$e.meri&an was %i$$ed. was the reason they were pinned down was not so m"&h the Ta$i'an.I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes.I+ KI<*6<<EN: The 1 we$$..The interesting thing.nd i( we're going to 0oin in.It was a patro$ (rom third Spe&ia$ 5or&es gro"p. we're not-B B"t they said.So I thin% o!era$$ we'd ha!e to say it's not going we$$KERRY O'BRIEN: .They were pinned down (or a'o"t si# ho"rs and one .They were mo!ing thro"gh a !a$$ey in northern 6r"3gan when they were am'"shed 'y a'o"t @>8 Ta$i'an. the internationa$ &omm"nity spent a $ot o( e((ort '"i$ding instit"tions at the nationa$ $e!e$. they're (ighting "s 'e&a"se we 0"st t"rned "p in their !a$$ey and sort o( p"shed them into the arms o( a $o&a$ enemyKERRY O'BRIEN: Yo" gi!e one i$$"stration o( g"erri$$a $aw &o"rts operating thro"gho"t so"thern .*an yo" e$a'orate on the point: +. yo" %now. BThis is the most e#&iting thing that's happened in o"r !a$$ey (or a'o"t 78 years. se!en were wo"nded. di!or&e $aw. tho"gh. yo" thin%.The (irst one is the 'att$e whi&h too% p$a&e @Ath o( ay.So we went in and '"i$t &o"rts and S"preme *o"rt 0"dges and a po$i&e head2"arters in Ka'"$ and so on. BWe$$. o"t o( 5ort Bragg. &on!eyan&ing.nd so this to me is a &$assi& e#amp$e o( what I &a$$ the a&&identa$ g"erri$$a syndrome. North *aro$ina.They do property disp"tes. we as%ed a $ot o( the $o&a$s.nd se&ond$y.

The most re&ent po$$ing in . Osama Bin <aden's in Pa%istan. to$d the Indians that .nd in the pro&ess. right there in the two thirds o( the &o"ntry that the go!ernment doesn't &ontro$. are they gi!ing themse$!es a sense o( $egitima&y in the eyes o( the peop$e: .B"t what &an .nd I o(ten say to peop$e in ..I'm ta$%ing a'o"t se&tions within the mi$itary and the inte$$igen&e &omm"nityKERRY O'BRIEN: Whi&h yo" ta$% a'o"t as a mi$itary state within a state+.(ghanistan is that when p"sh &omes to sho!e. peop$e don't ne&essari$y $i%e the Ta$i'an.(ghanistan s"ggested that a'o"t CC per &ent o( the .$i Fardari. we %now we'd get it 'a&%-B So that to me is an indi&ation o(. rea$$y. yo" sti$$ add "p to on$y a'o"t a third o( the pop"$ation o( Pa%istan. smash them together. one o( the things I do is when I go in the (ie$d. whi&h is demo&rati&a$$y e$e&ted and genera$$y (a!o"ra'$e to internationa$ &omm"nity e((ort in .. I as% peop$e a '"n&h o( 2"estions designed to (ig"re o"t.I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$.(ghan pop"$ation sti$$ (ears and dis$i%es the Ta$i'an.So I thin%. they say.We'!e had %ind o( an instr"menta$ re$ationship with the Pa%istanis where we want a transa&tion where they de$i!er a$ /aeda and the Ta$i'an and we pat them on the heads and say they're good 'oysThat is not where the Pa%istanis are at.meri&a do. BThey'd 0"st 'eat "s "p (or 'othering them.The Pa%istanis ha!e a $ong history o( s"pporting the Ta$i'an as an "n&on!entiona$ &o"nterweight to Indian regiona$ in($"en&e.It doesn't (o$$ow the dire&tion o( the e$e&ted po$iti&ian. whi&h &omes (rom that order.So i( Pa%istan were to &o$$apse and we were to see an a$ /aeda ta%eo!er.(ghanistan. yo" %now. yo" %now. to &hange the sit"ation: +...enera$ Pasha.(ghanistan.nd in the &ase o( a $ot o( !i$$ages in the so"th o( .I+ KI<*6<<EN: That's right to some e#tent.I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$. this is easy to say '"t e#treme$y hard to e#e&"teWhat we'!e done in re$ation to Pa%istan in the past has primari$y 'een (o&"sed on %i$$ing or &apt"ring the senior $eadership o( a$ /aeda and the Ta$i'an. sometimes in 'road day$ight "nder the noses o( Pa%istani mi$itary &he&%points.. that wo"$d 'e a pro'$em that wo"$d dwar( anything we'!e seen sin&e AE@@ in terms o( s&a$e and se!erity. rea$$y.Yo" on$y ha!e to $oo% at what happened a(ter the "m'ai atta&% in No!em'er $ast year when President .Pa%istan at the moment &$ear$y doesn't ha!e the wi$$ or the &apa&ity to do m"&h a'o"t that. who wo"$d yo" report it: Wo"$d yo" report it to the po$i&e or wo"$d yo" report it to someone e$se:B .si( . the . BI( someone sto$e yo"r 'i&y&$e and one o( yo"r $i!esto&%.(ghanistan.On$y a'o"t (o"r per &ent o( them want to see the Ta$i'an ta%e o!er.(ghanistan.nd an i$$"sion o( go!ernment: +. the (o&"s that we need to 'e p"tting in terms o( $ong1term iss"es in what we "sed to &a$$ the Bwar on terrorismB is primari$y Pa%istanKERRY O'BRIEN: Yo" a$so ta$% a'o"t the ease with whi&h ins"rgents &ross 'etween Pa%istan and . the president o( Pa%istan.They are &ontin"ing to do that and I don't ta$% here a'o"t the Pa%istani &i!i$ian $eadership. that's the Ta$i'anNow.Pa%istan's got @D? mi$$ion peop$e. it has @88 n"&$ear weapons. '"t they tr"st in their a'i$ity to de$i!er se&"rity at the $o&a$ $e!e$KERRY O'BRIEN: +oes it rea$$y matter anymore whether Osama Bin <aden is &a"ght or not: +.nd they $a"gh when yo" s"ggest that they wo"$d report it to the po$i&e.I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes and a rog"e state within a state at that..KERRY O'BRIEN: .B"t o"r e#perien&e in Ira2 parti&"$ar$y and in a$so the eastern1so"th o( . it has an army $arger than the 6S army and it has a$ /aeda head2"arters sitting there.B"t i( we report it to the Ta$i'an. where their $oya$ties $ie and what they thin% a'o"t the sit"ation. and it's good to 'ring that "p 'e&a"se i( yo" were to ta%e the pop"$ation o( Ira2 and the pop"$ation o( Pa%istan. the pop"$ation wi$$ go with whoe!er &an pro!ide them a sense o( predi&ta'i$ity and order and a sense o( sa(ety.

.. they go e$sewhere and it wi$$ tend to p"sh towards the &entre o( the &o"ntry.I wo"$d see three to (i!e years o( ma0or &om'at ahead o( "s.So I thin% we &an e#pe&t an in&rease in !io$en&e rather than a de&rease in the ne#t (ew monthsKERRY O'BRIEN: Whi&h sad$y. the head o( the army. it's 'e&a"se o( the (ighting season that I ta$%ed a'o"t 'e(ore.The ne#t year or two wi$$ 'e pretty intenseI( that goes right. yo" %now."stra$ian and +"t&h se&tor. in Or"3gan Pro!in&e.nd I thin% as we get into this thing.One o( the things we (o"nd in Ira2 was that as we .888 e#tra troops into . $ot o( the &o"ntries that are &ontri'"ting more to the &ampaign wi$$ 'e $oo%ing at po$i&e.. and I'd !ery 'e s"rprised i( we are not as%ed to do more at some point.. wasn't rea$$y done in re$ation to Ira. we need to 'e &$ear on the (a&t that it &o"$d 'e an e#treme$y $ong1term endea!o"rKERRY O'BRIEN: B"t yo"'re ta$%ing a'o"t an enormo"s stress on the po$iti&a$ wi$$ o( &o"ntries $i%e . at &i!i$ administrators and at aid. '"t ine!ita'$y.I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes."stra$ian $eadership a'o"t additiona$ re2"ests (or reso"r&esThat doesn't mean those dis&"ssions ha!en't ta%en p$a&e 'ehind the s&enes.meri&a. Britain and . o!er the &oming (ew months regard$ess o( whether we &ommit more troops or notThat's (or two reasons. and is it ine!ita'$e that more wi$$ 'e e#pe&ted o( .(ghans and a$$owing them to ta%e the $ead ro$e in se&"ring the &o"ntrySo that is 'est &ase.nd &o"nterins"rgen&y is $i%e s2"ee3ing a 'a$$oon. isn't it: +.5irst$y. yo" %now.I+ KI<*6<<EN: Best &ase.nd.ng"s )o"ston p"'$i&$y gainsaying the Prime inister in a matter o( internationa$ importan&e. whi&h is a 'ig i(."stra$ia's &ontri'"tion to the .I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes.I thin% what they hate to see is $osses not mat&hed 'y any per&epti'$e progress. where (ighting wi$$ 0"st nat"ra$$y in&rease as the weather impro!es. then we'$$ 'e into a sta'i$isation phase whi&h &o"$d $ast (o"r or (i!e years.."stra$ia.meri&an peop$e a'o"t how m"&h this is going to &ost.The ma0ority o( those g"ys wi$$ go into the east and so"th o( the &o"ntry.head o( the inte$$igen&e ser!i&e.nd then into a phase o( handing o!er to the .meri&an or the . aren't yo": Parti&"$ar$y sin&e the $onger it goes.I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$. the more the &as"a$ties mo"nt: +.(ghanistan &on($i&t to $ast: +. the 6nited States is a'o"t to p"t @D. that won't 'e happeningThat wo"$d 'e $i%e . the Prime inister was here in Washington this wee% and I'm not aware o( any p"'$i& statement 'y either the . a$tho"gh I thin% that pop"$ations in the West aren't ne&essari$y &as"a$ty a!erse.. said no. when yo" p"t more o( o"r g"ys into one area.."stra$ian peop$e and the . and how $ong it's going to ta%e."stra$ia: +.. I thin% soKERRY O'BRIEN: E!en i( the *oa$ition (or&es do e!erything right (rom now on. is going to mean e#pos"re to higher &as"a$ties. how $ong wo"$d yo" e#pe&t the .(ghanistan.So this is a sit"ation where the mi$itary simp$y are not a&ting "nder the &ontro$ o( the e$e&ted &i!i$ian go!ernmentKERRY O'BRIEN: )ow wo"$d yo" s"mmarise . 'est &ase..Those %inds o( things. the enemy doesn't disappear. i( that goes right.. wo"$d go to "m'ai and he$p in the in!estigations.nd the other point I wo"$d ma%e is that we wi$$ pro'a'$y see a spi%e in !io$en&e in the ."stra$ian se&tor o( the &o"ntry. into the .enera$ Kiyani.The !ery same day. @8 years.meri&a. &ertain$y in .B"t what I'd say is that that may not 'e mi$itary.(ghan &ampaign.Whi&h is something that "n(ort"nate$y.B"t se&ond$y. I thin% it's important that we $e!e$ with the .

nd I thin% we may see something $i%e that in . KERRY O'BRIEN: We$$. And al &aeda's dis"ussions of %ihad and of terrorism have prompted a debate in !slami" theologi"al "ir"les a)in to sort of %ust war debate in the west# whi"h has really led to a shift and we've seen a drop of popularity in al &aeda fairly substantially over the last year or two..(ghanistan pro!ided we &an t"rn this thing aro"nd.. are yo" an optimist or pessimist on the 'roader regiona$ and g$o'a$ &on($i&t 'etween the West and mi$itant Is$ami& ("ndamenta$ism: +. And they unanimously re%e"ted al &aeda's ideology# and put forward a fatwa# a religious ruling# suggesting that people who support al &aeda are in fa"t hereti"s. 'hat's a ver y ma%or step( there's never been a unified# unanimous %udgment li)e that in the Muslim world before.t"rned the &ampaign aro"nd d"ring the s"rge and we started to see some !ery s"'stantia$ progress on the gro"nd.. King Abdullah of Jordan got 500 luma !slami" s"holars and politi"al leaders together in Armen# Jordan# in $005. that is. ! thin) that provided we get out of the business of unilaterally po)ing our nose into lo"al "ountr y's affairs and we adopt instead a support program where we wor) on a "ontinuous engagement basis to help people solve their own problems# provided we do that# ! thin) this thing is li)ely to die a natural death over time. than%s !ery m"&h (or ta$%ing with "s+. Kerry- .I+ KI<*6<<EN: Than%s.nd that's a 'ig pro!isoKERRY O'BRIEN: In the end. I'm an optimistWe've seen some extremely interesting developments in the Muslim world in the last four or five years. it wo"$d 'e ni&e to end this on a s$ight$y optimisti& note at $east.I+ KI<*6<<EN: In terms o( what we "sed to &a$$ the g$o'a$ war on terrorism.+a!id Ki$&"$$en. the &ontrast 'etween ta%(iri terrorists s"&h as a$ /aeda and the west.. that the wi$$ingness o( peop$e to to$erate &om'at operations 'e&ame higher.

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