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OH-Gov PPP for Freedom Ohio (Dec. 2013)

OH-Gov PPP for Freedom Ohio (Dec. 2013)

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Public Policy Polling

2912 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com


From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling
To: Interested parties
Subject: Ohio Governor’s Race Continues to Looks Like a Toss Up
Date: 12/16/13

Public Policy Polling’s newest survey of the Ohio Governor’s race finds Republican John
Kasich polling at just 40%, a very weak position for an incumbent. Democrat Ed
FitzGerald is at 38%, Libertarian Charlie Earl is receiving 6%, and 16% of voters remain
undecided.

A PPP survey of this race in early November found that Kasich and FitzGerald were
knotted at 41%. Although there’s been a fair amount of movement toward Republicans
nationally since that time, the state of this particular race has seen very little movement
and Democrats continue to have an excellent chance at a pick up next year.

A few things really stand out in the crosstabs. FitzGerald dominates the middle, getting
55% of the vote with moderates to just 17% for Kasich. Also 66% of the voters who
remain undecided are women, giving FitzGerald a lot of room to grow with a
traditionally strong Democratic constituency.

PPP surveyed 1,011 Ohio voters from December 6
th
to 8th. The margin of error is +/-3.1%. This
poll was sponsored by Freedom Ohio.
December 6-8, 2013
Survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
December 6-8, 2013
Survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Ohio Survey Results
Q1 Are you registered to vote in the state of Ohio
at this address?
100%
Yes..................................................................
0%
No...................................................................
Q2 Thinking ahead to the November election that
will be held next year for Governor, Congress,
and other offices, how likely are you to vote in
that election? Would you say you are very
likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or
very unlikely to vote next November?
94%
Very likely .......................................................
6%
Somewhat likely..............................................
0%
Somewhat unlikely..........................................
0%
Very unlikely....................................................
0%
Not sure..........................................................
Q3 If the election for Governor were held today,
would you vote for Republican J ohn Kasich,
Democrat Ed Fitzgerald, or Libertarian Charlie
Earl?
40%
John Kasich ....................................................
38%
Ed FitzGerald..................................................
6%
Charlie Earl .....................................................
16%
Not sure..........................................................
Q4 Do you know someone who is gay, lesbian,
bisexual, or transgender?
85%
Yes..................................................................
12%
No...................................................................
4%
Not sure..........................................................
Q5 So that we have a representative sample of
Ohio voters, please provide the following
information. If you are female, press 1. If
male, press 2.
53%
Female............................................................
47%
Male................................................................
Q6 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as
a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or
something else?
27%
Strong Republican ..........................................
14%
Not so strong Republican................................
27%
Strong Democrat.............................................
9%
Not so strong Democrat ..................................
19%
Independent....................................................
4%
Other...............................................................
Q7 On political issues, do you consider yourself to
be conservative, moderate, or liberal?
30%
Very conservative ...........................................
25%
Somewhat conservative..................................
28%
Moderate.........................................................
10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................
8%
Very liberal ......................................................
Q8 Do you think of yourself as more conservative
or liberal?
24%
More conservative ..........................................
51%
More liberal .....................................................
25%
Not sure..........................................................
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic, white,
African-American, Asian, or something else?
1%
Hispanic..........................................................
83%
White ..............................................................
12%
African-American ............................................
1%
Asian...............................................................
3%
Something else...............................................
December 6-8, 2013
Survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
December 6-8, 2013
Survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Q10 What is your age?
6%
18 to 29...........................................................
13%
30 to 39...........................................................
20%
40 to 49...........................................................
23%
50 to 59...........................................................
13%
60 to 64...........................................................
25%
65 or older.......................................................
Q11 Is your home in an urban area, suburban area,
medium-sized town, small town, or rural area?
13%
Urban..............................................................
35%
Suburban ........................................................
14%
Medium-sized town.........................................
18%
Small town ......................................................
20%
Rural ...............................................................
Q12 What part of the state do you live in: Northeast
Ohio, Northwest Ohio, Central Ohio, Southwest
Ohio, or Southeast Ohio?
32%
NE Ohio..........................................................
15%
NW Ohio.........................................................
24%
Central Ohio....................................................
19%
SW Ohio .........................................................
10%
SE Ohio ..........................................................
Q13 Would you say you attend religious services
more than once a week, once a week, almost
every week, once or twice a month, a few times
a year, or never?
13%
More than once a week...................................
31%
Once a week...................................................
10%
Almost every week..........................................
10%
Once or twice a month....................................
20%
A few times a year ..........................................
15%
Never ..............................................................
December 6-8, 2013
survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
December 6-8, 2013
survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Base
Know LGBT
Per son?
Yes No
Not
sur e
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 40% 39% 55%
38% 37% 45% 29%
6% 6% 2% 1%
16% 17% 13% 15%
Base
Gender
Female Male
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 36% 45%
38% 39% 37%
6% 5% 6%
16% 21% 12%
Base
Par t y
St r ong
Republican
Not so st r ong
Republican
St r ong
Democr at
Not so st r ong
Democr at Independent Ot her
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 79% 49% 8% 9% 38% 49%
38% 7% 31% 78% 58% 25% 6%
6% 2% 3% 5% 1% 13% 19%
16% 12% 17% 9% 32% 24% 26%
Base
Ideology
Ver y
conser vative
Somewhat
conser vat ive Moder at e
Somewhat
liber al
Ver y
liber al
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 68% 57% 17% 9% 2%
38% 12% 21% 55% 72% 82%
6% 5% 4% 8% 2% 6%
16% 14% 18% 19% 17% 9%
Base
Moder at e Leaner s
Mor e
conser vat ive
Mor e
liber al
Not
sur e
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

17% 38% 8% 15%
55% 32% 71% 46%
8% 12% 8% 6%
19% 18% 13% 33%
Base
Race
Hispanic Whit e
Af r ican-
Amer ican Asian
Somet hing
else
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 38% 46% 9% 23% 22%
38% 14% 33% 79% 50% 19%
6% 4% 5% - 16% 35%
16% 43% 17% 12% 11% 24%
December 6-8, 2013
survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
December 6-8, 2013
survey of 1,011 Ohio voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Base
Age
18 t o
29
30 to
39
40 t o
49
50 t o
59
60 t o
64
65 or
older
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 40% 34% 38% 36% 40% 49%
38% 41% 42% 33% 43% 44% 31%
6% - 11% 8% 4% 2% 5%
16% 19% 13% 20% 17% 14% 16%
Base
Community Type
Ur ban Subur ban
Medium-
sized t own
Small
t own Rur al
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 26% 41% 45% 40% 46%
38% 55% 42% 29% 34% 29%
6% 4% 5% 3% 7% 7%
16% 14% 12% 23% 19% 18%
Base
Region
NE
Ohio
NW
Ohio
Cent r al
Ohio
SW
Ohio
SE
Ohio
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed Fit zGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 35% 37% 42% 47% 42%
38% 43% 35% 37% 32% 38%
6% 3% 5% 7% 9% 3%
16% 18% 22% 14% 12% 17%
Base
Religious Ser vice At t endance
Mor e than
once a week
Once a
week
Almost ever y
week
Once or t wice
a month
A few times
a year Never
Kasich/Fit zGer ald/Ea-
r l
John Kasich
Ed FitzGer ald
Char lie Ear l
Not sur e

40% 57% 48% 35% 44% 29% 26%
38% 22% 31% 53% 38% 44% 47%
6% 2% 4% 2% 6% 10% 7%
16% 19% 17% 10% 13% 17% 19%

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