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- Predicting Football Matches Using Neural Networks in MATLAB
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something out of the total possible.

Let’s check an

example….

• TROG likes to roll caveman dice.

• What is the Probability of Trog rolling a

“2” ?

Remember: Probability is the chance of doing

something out of the TOTAL POSSIBLE.

1 chance

6 Possible Outcomes

• The probability of Trog rolling a “2” on the

dice is:

1

6

What percent is that?

1÷6=

= .166666666666666666

…around 16-17%

• What is the probability of Trog rolling an

even number?

3 chances

6 total possible outcomes

• The probability of Trog rolling an even

number is:

3 = 1

6 2

What is the percent? (you should know this one

by heart!!)

50%

• The FANCY MATH WAY to

write probability of something is like this:

P(something)

What is the probability of getting

“heads” when you flip a coin?

WAY :

1

P(heads) = = 50%

2

That is Probability…..

…what about “ODDS” ?

NEWS FLASH!

“ODDS” and “PROBABILITY”

are

NOT THE

SAME ! ! ! ! !

• Odds and Probability are NOT THE

SAME!!!!!

Total Possible

What’s left over

What are the Odds of Trog

rolling an even number?

3 chances

3 left over

• The Odds of Trog rolling an even number

are:

3 = 1

3 1

Odds are usually written like this 1:1

• What are the ODDS that Trog rolls a “3” ?

1

5

= 1:5

• What are the odds against rolling a “4”?

5

1 5:1

Putting it together.

• The weather station says there is a 40%

probability of rain tomorrow. What are the

odds that it will rain?

• Remember ODDS compares the chance

of something happening vs. something not

happening!!!

4

Chance of rain happening:

= = 40%

2

6

Chance of rain NOT

happening. 3

60%

(The leftovers)

2 : 3 are the odds that it will rain.

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