Unbounding the Future: the Nanotechnology Revolution

Eric Drexler and Chris Peterson, with Gayle Perga it !illia "orrow and Co #any, $nc% New &or'
1991 by K. Eric Drexler, Chris Peterson, and Gayle Pergamit. All rights reserved.

Foreword by Stewart Brand anotechnology. !he science is good, the engineering is "easible, the #aths o" a##roach are many, the conse$%ences are revol%tionary&times&revol%tionary, and the sched%le is' in o%r li"etimes. (%t )hat* o one +no)s b%t )hat. !hat,s )hy a boo+ li+e this is cr%cial before molec%lar engineering and the ro%tine trans"ormation o" matter arrives. !he technology )ill arrive #iecemeal and #rominently b%t the conse$%ences )ill arrive at a larger scale and o"ten invisibly. Pers#ective "rom )ithin a b%rsting revol%tion is al)ays a #roblem beca%se the long vie) is obsc%red by com#elling immediacies and the s%dden tra""ic o" #eo#le ne) to the s%b-ect, some sei.ing o##ort%nity, some vie)ing )ith alarm. (oth o#timists and #essimists abo%t ne) technologies are notorio%s "or their t%nnel vision. !he tem#tation al)ays is to "oc%s on a single #oint o" de#art%re or a single "eared or desired goal. /am#le #oint o" de#art%re' 0hat i" )e can ma+e anything o%t o" diamond* /am#le "eared1desired goal' 0hat i" molec%lar&scale medicine lets #eo#le live "or cent%ries* 0e,re not acc%stomed to as+ing, 0hat )o%ld a )orld be li+e )here many s%ch things are occ%rring* or do )e as+, 0hat should s%ch a )orld be li+e* !he "irst )ord that comes to mind is careful. !he second is carnival. anotechnology brea+thro%ghs are li+ely to be sel"&accelerating and sel"&#roli"erating, m%ch as in"ormation technology advances have been "or the #ast several decades 2and )ill contin%e to be, es#ecially as nanotech +ic+s in3. 0e co%ld get a seething text%re o" constant innovation and s%r#rise, )ith desired res%lts and %nex#ected side&e""ects colliding in all directions. 4o) do yo% have a care"%l carnival* Unbounding the Future s#ells o%t some o" the ans)er. 5,ve been )atching the develo#ment o" Eric Drexler,s ideas since 1967, )hen he )as an 85! %ndergrad%ate )or+ing on s#ace technologies 2s#ace settlements, mass drivers, and solar sailing3. 0here 5 )as )atching "rom )as the 9bac+&to&basics9 )orld o" the Whole Earth Catalog #%blications, )hich 5 edited at the time. 5n that enclave o" environmentalists and )orld&savers one o" o%r dirty )ords )as technofix. A techno"ix )as deemed al)ays bad beca%se it )as a shortc%t:an overly "oc%sed directing o" high tech at a #roblem )ith no concern "or ne) and #ossibly )orse #roblems that the sol%tion might create. (%t some techno"ixes, )e began to notice, had the #ro#erty o" changing h%man #ers#ective in a healthy )ay. Personal com#%ters em#o)ered individ%als and too+ a)ay centrali.ed control o" comm%nication technology. /#ace satellites:at "irst re-ected by environmentalists:#roved to be inval%able environmental s%rveillance tools, and their images o" Earth "rom s#ace became an engine o" the ecology movement. 5 thin+ nanotechnology also is a #ers#ective shi"ter. 5t is a set o" technologies so "%ndamental as to amo%nt to a )hole ne) domain o" bac+ to basics. 0e m%st rethin+ the %ses o" materials and tools in o%r lives and civili.ations. Eric sho)ed himsel" able to thin+ on that scale )ith his 19;< boo+, Engines of Creation. 5n it he #ro#osed that the #otential chaos and ha.ard o" nanotech revol%tions re$%ired serio%s antici#atory debate, and "or an initial "or%m he and his )i"e Chris Peterson set %# the =oresight 5nstit%te. 5 )rote to =oresight "or literat%re and soon "o%nd mysel" on its board o" advisers. =rom that vantage #oint 5 )atched the gro)ing technical challenges to the #la%sibility o" nanotechnology 25 also enco%raged a "e)3 as #eo#le began to ta+e the #ros#ects serio%sly. !he easy

challenges )ere re"%ted #olitely. !he hard ones changed and im#roved the body o" ideas. do)n. >et.

one shot it

5 also )atched the increasing re#orts "rom the vario%s technical disci#lines o" research clearly headed to)ard nanotech ca#abilities, mostly by #eo#le )ho had no a)areness o" each other. 5 %rged Eric and Chris to assemble them at a con"erence. !he =irst =oresight Con"erence on anotechnology too+ #lace in 19;9 at /tan"ord ?niversity )ith a good mix o" technical and c%lt%ral iss%es addressed. !hat convergence $%ic+ened the #ace o" antici#ation and research. !his boo+ no) ta+es an admirable next ste#. As 5,ve learned "rom the Global (%siness et)or+, )here 5 )or+ #art&time hel#ing m%ltinational cor#orations thin+ abo%t their "%t%re, all "%t%rists soon discover that correct #rediction is im#ossible. And "orcing the "%t%re in a desired direction is also im#ossible. 0hat does that leave "oretho%ght to do* @ne o" the most val%able tools has #roved to be )hat is called scenario #lanning in )hich dramatic, divergent stories o" relevant "%t%res are s#%n o%t. Divergent strategies to handle them are #ro#osed, and the scenarios and strategies are #layed against each other %ntil the scenarios are coherent, #la%sible, s%r#rising, insight"%l, and chec+able against real events as they %n"old. 9Aob%st9 2ada#table3 strategies are s%##osed to emerge "rom the #rocess. !his boo+ delivers a rich array o" micro&scenarios o" nanotechnology at )or+, some thrilling, some terri"ying, all com#elling. Probably none re#resent exactly )hat )ill ha##en, b%t in aggregate they give a dee# sense o" the +ind o" thing that )ill ha##en. /trategies o" ho) to stay ahead o" the #rocess are #ro#osed, b%t the %ltimate res#onsibility "or the )holesome %se and develo#ment o" nanotechnology "alls on every #erson a)are o" it. !hat no) incl%des yo%. :/te)art (rand

(uthors) Note 8any o" the "ollo)ing cha#ters combine "act%al descri#tions )ith "%t%re scenarios based on those "acts. =acts and #ossibilities by themselves can dry and disconnected "rom h%man a""airsB scenarios are )idely %sed by b%siness strategists to lin+ "acts and #ossibilities into coherent, vital #ict%res. 0e ado#t them "or this #%r#ose. Scenarios are distinguished from the surrounding text by indentation. 0here they s#ea+ o" technologies, they re#resent o%r %nderstanding o" )hat is #ossible. 0here they s#ea+ o" events occ%rred be"ore 1991, they re#resent o%r %nderstanding o" )hat has already ha##ened. @ther elements o" scenarios, ho)ever, are there to tell a story. !he story in "irst t)o #aragra#hs, set in 199C, is "act.

Pre*ace Antibiotics, aircra"t, satellites, n%clear )ea#ons, television, mass #rod%ction, com#%ters, a global #etrole%m economy:all the "amiliar revol%tions o" t)entieth&cent%ry technology, )ith their gro)ing conse$%ences "or h%man li"e and the Earth itsel", have emerged )ithin living memory. !hese revol%tions have been enormo%s, yet the next "e) decades #romise "ar more. !he ne) #ros#ects aren,t as "amiliar, and can,t be' they haven,t ha##ened yet. @%r aim in this boo+, tho%gh, is to see )hat )e can see, to try to %nderstand not the events o" the %n+no)n and %n+no)able "%t%re b%t distinct, +no)able #ossibilities that )ill sha#e )hat the "%t%re can become. !)entieth&cent%ry technology is headed "or the -%n+ hea#, or #erha#s the recycling bins. 5t has changed li"eB its re#lacement )ill change li"e again, b%t di""erently. !his boo+ attem#ts to trace at least a "e) o" the im#ortant conse$%ences o" the coming revol%tion in molecular nanotechnology, incl%ding conse$%ences "or the environment, medicine, )ar"are, ind%stry, society, and li"e on Earth. 0e,ll #aint a #ict%re o" the technology itsel":its #arts, #rocesses, and abilities:b%t the technology )ill be a detail in a larger )hole. A short s%mmary o" )hat molec%lar nanotechnology )ill mean is thorough and inex ensive control of the structure of matter. Poll%tion, #hysical disease, and material #overty all stem "rom #oor control o" the str%ct%re o" matter. /tri# mines, clear&c%tting, re"ineries, #a#er mills, and oil )ells are some o" the cr%de, t)entieth&cent%ry technologies that )ill be re#laced. Dental drills and toxic chemothera#ies are others. As al)ays, there is both #romise o" bene"it and danger o" ab%se. As has become ro%tine, the ?nited /tates is sli##ing behind by not loo+ing ahead. As never be"ore, "oresight is both vital and #ossible. 5,ve made the technical case "or the "easibility o" molec%lar nanotechnology else)here, and this case has been che)ed over by scientists and engineers since the mid&19;Cs. 2!he technical bibliogra#hy o%tlines some o" the relevant literat%re.3 !he idea o" molec%lar nanotechnology is no) abo%t as )ell acce#ted as )as the idea o" "lying to the 8oon in the #re:s#ace age year o" 197C, nineteen years be"ore the ! ollo "" landing and seven years be"ore the shoc+ o" S utni#. !hose )ho %nderstand it ex#ect it to ha##en, b%t )itho%t the cost and %ncertainty o" a grand national commitment. @%r goal in this boo+ is to describe )hat molec%lar nanotechnology )ill mean in #ractical terms, so that more #eo#le can thin+ more realistically abo%t the "%t%re. Decisions on ho) to develo# and control #o)er"%l ne) technologies are too im#ortant to be le"t by de"a%lt to a hand"%l o" s#eciali.ed researchers, or to a hasty #olitical #rocess that "lares into action at the last min%te )hen the S utni# goes %#. 0ith more )ides#read %nderstanding and longer deliberation, #olitical decisions are more li+ely to serve the common good. 5 )o%ld never have )ritten a boo+ li+e this on my o)nB 5 lean in a more abstract direction. Combined blame and than+s belong to my coa%thors, Chris Peterson and Gayle Pergamit, "or ma+ing this boo+ ha##en and "or clothing the bones o" technology in the "lesh o" h%man #ossibilities. :K. Eric Drexler /tan"ord ?niversity

+able o* Contents
=ore)ord by /te)art (rand Pre"ace A%thors, ote

Cha#ter 1 Doo+ing =or)ard Cha#ter E !he 8olec%lar 0orld Cha#ter F (ottom&?# !echnology Cha#ter G Paths, Pioneers, and Progress Cha#ter 7 !he !hreshold o" anotechnology Cha#ter < 0or+ing )ith anotechnology

Cha#ter 6 !he /#iral o" Ca#ability Cha#ter ; Providing the (asics, and 8ore Cha#ter 9 Aestoring the Environment Cha#ter 1C anomedicine

Cha#ter 11 Dimits and Do)nsides Cha#ter 1E /a"ety, Accidents, and Ab%se Cha#ter 1F Policy and Pros#ects A"ter)ord' !a+ing Action =%rther Aeading !echnical (ibliogra#hy Glossary Ac+no)ledgments 5ndex

Cha#ter , -oo'ing Forward !he Ha#anese #ro"essor and his American visitor #a%sed in the rain to loo+ at a rising concrete str%ct%re on a %niversity cam#%s in the !o+yo s%b%rbs near 4igashi+oganei /tation. 9!his is "or o%r anotechnology Center,9 Pro"essor Kobayashi said. !he #ro"essor,s g%est com#limented the )or+ as he )ondered to himsel", )hen )o%ld an American #ro"essor be able to say the same* !his anotechnology Center )as being b%ilt in the s#ring o" 199C, as Eric Drexler )as mid)ay thro%gh a hectic eight&day tri#, giving tal+s on nanotechnology to researchers and seeing do.ens o" %niversity and consorti%m research laboratories. A Ha#anese research society had s#onsored the tri#, and the 8inistry o" 5nternational !rade and 5nd%stry 85!53 had organi.ed a sym#osi%m aro%nd the visitIa sym#osi%m on molec%lar machines and nanotechnology. Ha#anese research )as "orging ahead, aiming to develo# 9ne) modes o" science and technology in harmony )ith nat%re and h%man society,9 a ne) technology "or the t)enty&"irst cent%ry. !here is a vie) o" the "%t%re that doesn,t "it )ith the vie) in the ne)s#a#ers. !hin+ o" it as an alternative, a t%rn in the road o" "%t%re history that leads to a di""erent )orld. 5n that )orld, cancer "ollo)s #olio, #etrole%m "ollo)s )hale oil, and ind%strial technology "ollo)s chi##ed "lintIall healed or re#laced. @ld #roblems vanish, ne) #roblems a##ear' do)n the road are many alternative )orlds, some "it to live in, some not. 0e aim to s%rvey this road and the alternatives, beca%se to arrive at a )orld "it to live in, )e )ill all need a better vie) o" the o#en #aths. 4o) does one begin to describe a #rocess that can re#lace the ind%strial system o" the )orld* Physical #ossibilities, research trends, "%t%re technologies, h%man conse$%ences, #olitical challenges' this is the logical se$%ence, b%t none o" these ma+es a satis"actory starting #oint. !he story might begin )ith research at #laces li+e 5(8, D% Pont, and the EAA!@ #ro-ects at !s%+%ba and A5KE , b%t this )o%ld begin )ith molec%les, seemingly remote "rom h%man concerns. At the core o" the story is a +ind o" technologyI9molec%lar nanotechnology9 or 9molec%lar man%"act%ring9Ithat a##ears destined to re#lace most o" technology as )e +no) it today, b%t it seems best not to begin in the middle. 5nstead, it seems best to begin )ith a little o" each to#ic, brie"ly s+etching conse$%ences, technologies, trends, and #rinci#les be"ore diving into )hole cha#ters on one as#ect or another. !his cha#ter #rovides those s+etches and sets the stage "or )hat "ollo)s. All this can be read as #osing a grand 90hat i"*9 $%estion' What if molecular manufacturing and its roducts re lace modern technology$ 5" they don,t, then the $%estion merely invites an entertaining and mind&stretching exercise. (%t i" they do, then )or+ing o%t good ans)ers in advance may ti# the balance in ma+ing decisions that determine the "ate o" the )orld. Dater cha#ters )ill sho) )hy )e see molec%lar man%"act%ring as being almost inevitable, yet "or no) it )ill s%""ice i" eno%gh #eo#le give eno%gh tho%ght to the $%estion 90hat i"*9 ( .'etch o* +echnologies %olecular nanotechnology& !horo%gh, inex#ensive control o" the str%ct%re o" matter based on molec%le&by&molec%le control o" #rod%cts and by#rod%ctsB the #rod%cts and #rocesses o" molec%lar man%"act%ring. !echnology&as&)e&+no)&it is a #rod%ct o" ind%stry, o" man%"act%ring and chemical engineering. 5nd%stry&as&)e&+no)&it ta+es things "rom nat%reIore "rom mo%ntains, trees "rom "orestsIand coerces them into "orms that someone considers %se"%l. !rees become l%mber, then ho%ses. 8o%ntains become r%bble, then molten iron, then steel, then cars. /and becomes a #%ri"ied gas, then silicon, then chi#s. And so it goes. Each #rocess is cr%de, based on c%tting, stirring, ba+ing, s#raying, etching, grinding, and the li+e. !rees, tho%gh, are not cr%de' !o ma+e )ood and leaves, they neither c%t, grind, stir, ba+e,

s#ray, etch, nor grind. 5nstead, they gather solar energy %sing molec%lar electronic devices, the #hotosynthetic reaction centers o" chloro#lasts. !hey %se that energy to drive molecular machines' active devices )ith moving #arts o" #recise, molec%lar str%ct%reI)hich #rocess carbon dioxide and )ater into oxygen and molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s. !hey %se other molec%lar machines to -oin these molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s to "orm roots, tr%n+s, branches, t)igs, solar collectors, and more molec%lar machinery. Every tree ma+es leaves, and each lea" is more so#histicated than a s#acecra"t, more "inely #atterned than the latest chi# "rom /ilicon Jalley. !hey do all this )itho%t noise, heat, toxic "%mes, or h%man labor, and they cons%me #oll%tants as they go. Jie)ed this )ay, trees are high technology. Chi#s and roc+ets aren,t. !rees give a hint o" )hat molec%lar nanotechnology )ill be li+e, b%t nanotechnology )on,t be biotechnology beca%se it )on,t rely on altering li"e. (iotechnology is a "%rther stage in the domestication o" living things. Di+e selective breeding, it resha#es the genetic heritage o" a s#ecies to #rod%ce varieties more %se"%l to #eo#le. ?nli+e selective breeding, it inserts ne) genes. Di+e biotechnologyIor ordinary treesImolec%lar nanotechnology )ill %se molec%lar machinery, b%t %nli+e biotechnology, it )ill not rely on genetic meddling. 5t )ill be not an extension o" biotechnology, b%t an alternative or a re#lacement. 8olec%lar nanotechnology co%ld have been conceived and analy.edItho%gh not b%iltIbased on scienti"ic +no)ledge available "orty years ago. Even today, as develo#ment accelerates, %nderstanding gro)s slo)ly beca%se molec%lar nanotechnology merges "ields that have been strangers' the molec%lar sciences, )or+ing at the threshold o" the $%ant%m realm, and mechanical engineering, still mired in the grease and cr%dity o" conventional technology. anotechnology )ill be a technology o" ne) molec%lar machines, o" gears and sha"ts and bearings that move and )or+ )ith #arts sha#ed in accord )ith the )ave e$%ations at the "o%ndations o" nat%ral la). 8echanical engineers don,t design molec%les. 8olec%lar scientists seldom design machines. >et a ne) "ield )ill gro)Iis gro)ing todayIin the ga# bet)een. !hat "ield )ill re#lace both chemistry as )e +no) it and mechanical engineering as )e +no) it. And )hat is man%"act%ring today, or modern technology itsel", b%t a #atch)or+ o" cr%de chemistry and cr%de machines* Cha#ter E )ill #aint a concrete #ict%re o" molec%lar machines and molec%lar man%"act%ring, b%t "or no) analogy )ill serve. Pict%re an a%tomated "actory, "%ll o" conveyor belts, com#%ters, rollers, stam#ers, and s)inging robot arms. o) imagine something li+e that "actory, b%t a million times smaller and )or+ing a million times "aster, )ith #arts and )or+#ieces o" molec%lar si.e. 5n this "actory, a 9#oll%tant9 )o%ld be a loose molec%le, li+e a ricocheting bolt or )asher, and loose molec%les aren,t tolerated. 5n many )ays, the "actory is %tterly %nli+e a living cell' not "l%id, "lexible, ada#table, and "ertile, b%t rigid, #re#rogrammed and s#eciali.ed. And yet "or all o" that, this microsco#ic molec%lar "actory em%lates li"e in its clean, #recise molec%lar constr%ction. Advanced molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill be able to ma+e almost anything. ?nli+e cr%de mechanical and chemical technologies, molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill )or+ "rom the bottom %#, assembling intricate #rod%cts "rom the molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s that %nderlie everything in the #hysical )orld. anotechnology )ill bring ne) ca#abilities, giving %s ne) )ays to ma+e things, heal o%r bodies, and care "or the environment. 5t )ill also bring %n)elcome advances in )ea#onry and give %s yet more )ays to "o%l %# the )orld on an enormo%s scale. 5t )on,t a%tomatically solve o%r #roblems' even #o)er"%l technologies merely give %s more #o)er. As %s%al, )e have a lot o" )or+ ahead o" %s and a lot o" hard decisions to ma+e i" )e ho#e to harness ne) develo#ments to good ends. !he main reason to #ay attention to nanotechnology no), be"ore it exists, is to get a head start on %nderstanding it and )hat to do abo%t it. ( .'etch o* Conse/uences !he ?nited /tates has become "amo%s "or its obsession )ith the next year,s elections and the next $%arter,s #ro"its, and the "%t%re be damned. onetheless, )e are )riting "or normal h%man beings )ho "eel that the "%t%re matters:ten, t)enty, #erha#s even thirty years "rom no)I"or #eo#le )ho care

eno%gh to try to shi"t the odds "or the better. 8a+ing )ise choices )ith an eye to the "%t%re re$%ires a realistic #ict%re o" )hat the "%t%re can hold. 0hat i" most #ict%res o" the "%t%re today are based on the )rong ass%m#tions* 4ere are a "e) o" today,s common ass%m#tions, some so "amiliar that they are seldom stated' 5nd%strial develo#ment is the only alternative to #overty. 8any #eo#le m%st )or+ in "actories. Greater )ealth means greater reso%rce cons%m#tion. Dogging, mining, and "ossil&"%el b%rning m%st contin%e. 8an%"act%ring means #oll%ting. !hird 0orld develo#ment )o%ld doom the environment.

!hese all de#end on a more basic ass%m#tion' (ndustry as we #now it cannot be re laced. /ome "%rther common ass%m#tions' !he t)enty&"irst cent%ry )ill basically bring more o" the same. !oday,s economic trends )ill de"ine tomorro),s #roblems. /#ace"light )ill never be a""ordable "or most #eo#le. =orests )ill never gro) beyond Earth. 8ore advanced medicine )ill al)ays be more ex#ensive. Even highly advanced medicine )on,t be able to +ee# #eo#le healthy. /olar energy )ill never become really inex#ensive. !oxic )astes )ill never be gathered and eliminated. Develo#ed land )ill never be ret%rned to )ilderness. !here )ill never be )ea#ons )orse than n%clear missiles. Poll%tion and reso%rce de#letion )ill event%ally bring )ar or colla#se.

!hese, too, de#end on a more basic ass%m#tion' )echnology as we #now it will never be re laced. !hese common#lace ass%m#tions #aint a "%t%re "%ll o" terrible dilemmas, and the notion that a technological change )ill let %s esca#e "rom them smac+s o" the idea that some technological "ix can save the ind%strial system. !he #ros#ect, tho%gh, is $%ite di""erent' !he ind%strial system )on,t be "ixed, it )ill be -%n+ed and recycled. !he #ros#ect isn,t more ind%strial )ealth ri##ed "rom the "lesh o" the Earth, b%t green )ealth %n"olding "rom #rocesses as clean as a gro)ing tree. !oday, o%r ind%strial technologies "orce %s to choose better $%ality or lo)er cost or greater sa"ety or a cleaner environment. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring, ho)ever, can be %sed to im#rove $%ality and lo)er costs and increase sa"ety and clean the environment. !he coming revol%tions in technology )ill transcend many o" the old, "amiliar dilemmas. And yes, they )ill bring "resh, e$%ally terrible dilemmas.

8olec%lar nanotechnology )ill bring thoro%gh and inex#ensive control o" the str%ct%re o" matter. 0e need to %nderstand molec%lar nanotechnology in order to %nderstand the "%t%re ca#abilities o" the h%man race. !his )ill hel# %s see the challenges ahead, and hel# %s #lan ho) best to conserve val%es, traditions, and ecosystems thro%gh e""ective #olicies and instit%tions. Di+e)ise, it can hel# %s see )hat today,s events mean, incl%ding b%siness o##ort%nities and #ossibilities "or action. 0e need a vision o" )here technology is leading beca%se technology is a #art o" )hat h%man beings are, and )ill a""ect )hat )e and o%r societies can become. !he conse$%ences o" the coming revol%tions )ill de#end on h%man actions. As al)ays, ne) abilities )ill create ne) #ossibilities both "or good and "or ill. 0e )ill disc%ss both, "oc%sing on ho) #olitical and economic #ress%res can best be harnessed to achieve good ends. @%r ans)ers )ill not be satis"actory, b%t they are at least a beginning. ( .'etch o* +rends !echnology has been moving to)ard greater control o" the str%ct%re o" matter "or millennia. =or decades, microtechnology has been b%ilding ever&smaller devices, )or+ing to)ard the molec%lar si.e scale "rom the to# do)n. =or a cent%ry or more, chemistry has been b%ilding ever&larger molec%les, )or+ing %# to)ard molec%les large eno%gh to serve as machines. !he research is global, and the com#etition is heating %#. /ince the conce#t o" molec%lar nanotechnology )as "irst laid o%t, scientists have develo#ed more #o)er"%l ca#abilities in chemistry and molec%lar mani#%lation 2see Cha#ter G3. !here is no) a better #ict%re o" ho) those ca#abilities can come together in the next ste#s 2see Cha#ter 73, and o" ho) advanced molec%lar man%"act%ring can )or+ 2see Cha#ter <3. anotechnology has arrived as an idea and as a research direction, tho%gh not yet as a reality. at%rally occ%rring molec%lar machines exist already. Aesearchers are learning to design ne) ones. !he trend is clear, and it )ill accelerate beca%se better molec%lar machines can hel# b%ild even better molec%lar machines. (y the standards o" daily li"e, the develo#ment o" molec%lar nanotechnology )ill be grad%al, s#anning years or decades, yet by the #ondero%s standards o" h%man history it )ill ha##en in an eyeblin+. 5n retros#ect, the )holesale re#lacement o" t)entieth&cent%ry technologies )ill s%rely be seen as a technological revol%tion, as a #rocess encom#assing a great brea+thro%gh. !oday, )e live in the end o" the #re&brea+thro%gh era, )ith #re&brea+thro%gh technologies, ho#es, "ears, and #reocc%#ations that o"ten seem #ermanent, as did the Cold 0ar. >et it seems that the brea+thro%gh era is not a matter "or some "%t%re generation, b%t "or o%r o)n. !hese develo#ments are ta+ing sha#e right no), and it )o%ld be rash to ass%me that their conse$%ences )ill be many years delayed. 5n later cha#ters, )e,ll say more abo%t )hat researchers are doing today, abo%t )here their )or+ is leading, and abo%t the #roblems and choices ahead. !o get a sense o" the conse$%ences, tho%gh, re$%ires a #ict%re o" )hat nanotechnology can do. !his can be hard to gras# beca%se #ast advanced technologies:micro)ave t%bes, lasers, s%#ercond%ctors, satellites, robots, and the li+e:have come tric+ling o%t o" "actories, at "irst )ith high #rice tags and narro) a##lications. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring, tho%gh, )ill be more li+e com#%ters' a "lexible technology )ith a h%ge range o" a##lications. And molec%lar man%"act%ring )on,t come tric+ling o%t o" conventional "actories as com#%ters did' it )ill re lace "actories and re#lace or %#grade their #rod%cts. !his is something ne) and basic, not -%st another t)entieth&cent%ry gadget. 5t )ill arise o%t o" t)entieth&cent%ry trends in science, b%t it )ill brea+ the trend&lines in technology, economics, and environmental a""airs. Calc%lators )ere once tho%sand&dollar des+to# cl%n+ers, b%t microelectronics made them "ast and e""icient, si.ed to a child,s #oc+et and #riced to a child,s b%dget. o) imagine a revol%tion o" similar magnit%de, b%t a##lied to everything else.

"ore Conse/uences: .cenes *ro

a Post0brea'through !orld

0hat nanotechnology )ill mean "or h%man li"e is beyond o%r #redicting, b%t a good )ay to %nderstand )hat it could mean is to #aint scenarios. A good scenario brings together di""erent as#ects o" the )orld 2technologies, environments, h%man concerns3 into a coherent )hole. 8a-or cor#orations %se scenarios to hel# envision the #aths that the "%t%re may ta+e:not as "orecasts, b%t as tools "or thin+ing. 5n #laying the 90hat i"*9 game, scenarios #resent trial ans)ers and #ose ne) $%estions. !he "ollo)ing scenarios can,t re#resent )hat )ill ha##en, beca%se no one +no)s. !hey can, ho)ever, sho) ho) #ost&brea+thro%gh ca#abilities co%ld mesh )ith h%man li"e and Earth,s environment. !he res%lts )ill li+ely seem $%aintly conservative "rom a "%t%re #ers#ective, ho)ever m%ch they seem li+e science "iction today. !he iss%es behind these scenarios )ill be disc%ssed in later cha#ters. .cenario: .olar Energy 5n =airban+s, Alas+a, Dinda 4oover ya)ns and "li#s a s)itch on a dar+ )inter morning. !he light comes on, #o)ered by stored solar electricity. !he Alas+a oil #i#eline sh%t do)n years ago, and tan+er tra""ic is gone "or good. anotechnology can ma+e solar cells e""icient, as chea# as ne)s#a#er, and as to%gh as as#halt:to%gh eno%gh to %se "or res%r"acing roads, collecting energy )itho%t dis#lacing any more grass and trees. !ogether )ith e""icient, inex#ensive storage cells, this )ill yield lo)&cost #o)er 2b%t no, not 9too chea# to meter93. Cha#ter 9 disc%sses #ros#ects "or energy and the environment in more de#th. .cenario: "edicine that Cures /%e 8iller o" Dincoln, ebras+a, has been a bit hoarse "or )ee+s, and -%st came do)n )ith a horrid head cold. =or the #ast six months, she,s been seeing ads "or At DastKL' the C%re "or the Common Cold, so she s#ends her "ive dollars and ta+es the nose&s#ray and throat&s#ray doses. 0ithin three ho%rs, 99 #ercent o" the vir%ses in her nose and throat are gone, and the rest are on the r%n. 0ithin six ho%rs, the medical mechanisms have become inactive, li+e a #inch o" inhaled b%t biodegradable d%st, soon cleared "rom the body. /he "eels m%ch better and )on,t in"ect her "riends at dinner. !he h%man imm%ne system is an intricate molec%lar mechanism, #atrolling the body "or vir%ses and other invaders, recogni.ing them by their "oreign molec%lar coats. !he imm%ne system, tho%gh, is slo) to recogni.e something ne). =or her "ive dollars, /%e bo%ght 1C billion molec%lar mechanisms #rimed to recogni.e not -%st the vir%ses she had already enco%ntered, b%t each o" the "ive h%ndred most common vir%ses that ca%se colds, in"l%en.a, and the li+e. 0ee+s have #assed, b%t the hoarseness /%e had be"ore her cold still hasn,t gone a)ayB it gets )orse. /he ignores it thro%gh a long vacation, b%t once she,s bac+ and ca%ght %#, /%e "inally goes to see her doctor. 4e loo+s do)n her throat and says, 94mmm.9 4e as+s her to inhale an aerosol, co%gh, s#it in a c%#, and go read a maga.ine. !he diagnosis #o#s %# on a screen "ive min%tes a"ter he #o%rs the sam#le into his cell analy.er. Des#ite his +no)ledge, his training and tools, he "eels chilled to read the diagnosis' a malignant cancer o" the throat, the same disease that has cro##ed %# all too o"ten in his o)n mother,s "amily. 4e to%ches the 9Proceed9 b%tton. 5n t)enty min%tes, he loo+s at the screen to chec+ #rogress. >es, /%e,s cancero%s cells are all o" one basic +ind, dis#laying one o" the 1<,F1G +no)n molec%lar mar+ers "or malignancy. !hey can be recogni.ed, and since they can be recogni.ed, they can be destroyed by standard molec%lar machines #rimed to react to those mar+ers. !he doctor instr%cts the cell analy.er to #rime some 9imm%ne machines9 to go a"ter her cancer cells. 4e tests them on cells "rom the sam#le, )atches, and sees that they )or+ as ex#ected, so he has the analy.er #rime %# some more.

/%e #%ts the maga.ine do)n and loo+s %#. 90ell, Doc, )hat,s the )ord*9 she as+s. 95 "o%nd some s%s#icio%s cells, b%t this sho%ld clear it %#,9 he says. 4e gives her a throat s#ray and an in-ection. 95,d li+e yo% to come bac+ in three )ee+s, -%st to be s%re.9 9Do 5 have to*9 she as+s. 9>o% +no),9 he lect%res her, 9)e need to ma+e s%re it,s gone. >o% really sho%ldn,t let things li+e this go so "ar be"ore coming in.9 9>es, "ine, 5,ll ma+e the a##ointment,9 she says. Deaving the o""ice, /%e thin+s "ondly o" ho) old& "ashioned and conservative Dr. =%-ima is. !he molec%lar mechanisms o" the imm%ne system already destroy most #otential cancers be"ore they gro) large eno%gh to detect. 0ith nanotechnology, )e )ill b%ild molec%lar mechanisms to destroy those that the imm%ne system misses. Cha#ter 1C disc%sses medical nanotechnologies in more de#th. .cenario: Cleansing the .oil Cali"ornia /co%t !roo# 96F1 has hi+ed "or six days, dee# in the second&)ilderness "orests o" the Paci"ic orth)est. 95 bet )e,re the "irst #eo#le ever to )al+ here,9 says one o" the yo%ngest sco%ts. 90ell, maybe yo%,re right abo%t wal#ing,9 says /co%tmaster Hac+son, 9b%t loo+ %# ahead:)hat do yo% see, sco%ts*9 !)enty #aces ahead r%ns a stri# o" yo%nger trees, stretching le"t and right %ntil it vanishes among the tr%n+s o" the s%rro%nding "orest. 94ey, g%ysK Another old logging roadK9 sho%ts an older sco%t. /everal sco%ts #%ll #robes "rom their #oc+ets and "it them to the ends o" their )al+ing stic+s. Hac+son smiles' 5t,s been ten years since a Cali"ornia troo# "o%nd anything this )ay, b%t the +ids +ee# trying. !he sco%ts "an o%t, angling their #ath along the scar o" the old road, #o+ing at the gro%nd and )atching the reado%ts on the stic+ handles. /%ddenly, %nex#ectedly, comes a call' 95,ve got a signalK 0o):5,ve got PC(sK9 5n a moment, grinning sco%ts are ma##ing and tracing the s#ill. Decades ago, a tr%c+ )ith a lea+ing load o" chemical )aste sn%c+ do)n the old logging road, leaving a thin toxic trail. !hat trail leads them to a dee# ravine, some r%sted dr%ms, and a nice )ide #atch o" invisible "ilth. !he excitement is electri"ying. /etting aside their ma#s and orienteering #ractice, they %nseal a satellite locator to log the exact latit%de and longit%de o" the site, then send a message that registers their clean%# claim on the ravine. !he s%rvey done, they head o"" again, eagerly #lanning a ret%rn tri# to earn the no)&rare !oxic 0aste Clean%# 8erit (adge. !oday, tree "arms are re#lacing )ilderness. !omorro), the slo) ret%rn to )ilderness may begin, )hen nat%re need no longer be seen as a storeho%se o" nat%ral reso%rces to be #l%ndered. Cha#ter 9 )ill disc%ss -%st ho) little need be ta+en "rom nat%re to #rovide h%mans )ith )ealth, and ho) #ost& brea+thro%gh technologies can remove "rom nat%re the toxic resid%es o" t)entieth&cent%ry mista+es. .cenario: Poc'et .u#erco #uters At the ?niversity o" 8ichigan, Hoel Gregory grabs a molec%lar rod )ith both hands and t)ists. 5t "eels a bit )ea+, and a ri##le o" red reveals too m%ch stress in a strained molec%lar bond hal")ay do)n its length. 4e adds t)o atoms and t)ists the rod again' all greens and bl%es,

m%ch better. Hoel #l%gs the rod into the mechanical arm he,s designing, t%rns %# the tem#erat%re, and sets the )hole thing in motion. A million atoms dance in thermal vibration, gears s#in, and the arm s)ings to and "rom in #rogrammed motion. 5t loo+s good. A "e) #arts are still moc+&%#s, b%t doing a thesis ta+es time, and he,ll )or+ o%t the rest o" the molec%lar details later. Hoel stri#s o"" the com#%ter dis#lay goggles and gloves and blin+s at the real )orld. 5t,s time "or a sand)ich and a c%# o" co""ee. 4e grabs the com#%ter itsel", st%""s it into his #oc+et, and heads "or the st%dent center. Aesearchers already %se com#%ters to b%ild models o" molec%les, and 9virt%al reality systems9 have beg%n to a##ear, enabling a %ser to )al+ aro%nd the image o" a molec%le and 9to%ch9 it, %sing com#%ter&controlled gloves and goggles. 0e can,t b%ild a s%#ercom#%ter able to model a million&atom machine yet:m%ch less b%ild a #oc+et s%#ercom#%ter:b%t com#%ters +ee# shrin+ing in si.e and cost. 0ith nanotechnology to ma+e molec%lar #arts, a com#%ter li+e Hoel,s )ill become easy to b%ild. !oday,s s%#ercom#%ters )ill seem li+e hand&cran+ed adding machines by com#arison. Cha#ters E and F ta+e a closer loo+ at a sim%lated molec%lar )orld. .cenario: Global !ealth (ehind a village school in the "orest a stone,s thro) "rom the Congo Aiver, a des+to# com#%ter )ith a tho%sand times the #o)er o" an early 199Cs s%#ercom#%ter lies hal"&b%ried in a recycling bin. 5ndoors, Hose#h Ado%la and his "riends have "inished their day,s st%diesB no) they are #laying together in a vivid game %niverse %sing #ersonal com#%ters each a million times more #o)er"%l than the cl%n+er in the trash. !hey stay late in air&conditioned com"ort. !rees %se air, soil, and s%nlight to ma+e )ood, and )ood is chea# eno%gh to b%rn. anotechnology can do li+e)ise, ma+ing #rod%cts as chea# as )ood:even #rod%cts li+e s%#ercom#%ters, air conditioners, and solar cells to #o)er them. !he res%lting economics may even +ee# tro#ical "orests "rom being b%rned. Cha#ter 6 )ill disc%ss ho) costs can "all lo) eno%gh to ma+e material )ealth "or the !hird 0orld easy to achieve. .cenario: Cleansing the (ir 5n Earth,s atmos#here, the t)entieth&cent%ry rise in carbon&dioxide levels has halted and reversed. =ossil "%els are obsolete, so #oll%tion rates have lessened. E""icient agric%lt%re has "reed "ertile land "or re"orestation, so gro)ing trees are cleansing the atmos#here. /%r#l%s solar #o)er "rom the )orld,s re#aved roads is being %sed to brea+ do)n excess carbon dioxide at a rate o" 7 billion tons #er year. Climates are ret%rning to normal, the seas are receding to their historical shores, and ecosystems are beginning the slo) #rocess o" recovery. 5n another t)enty years, the atmos#here )ill be bac+ to the #re&ind%strial com#osition it had in the year 1;CC. Cha#ter 9 )ill disc%ss environmental clean%#, "rom red%cing the so%rces to cleaning %# the messes already in #lace. .cenario: +rans#ortation 1utward Him /alin,s a"ternoon "light "rom D%lles 5nternational is on the gro%nd, late "or de#art%re. 5m#atiently, Him chec+s the time' any later, and he,ll miss his connecting "light. At last, the glassy&s%r"aced cra"t rolls do)n the r%n)ay. 0ith gliderli+e )ings, it li"ts its "at body and climbs stee#ly to)ard the east. A "e) #ages into his novel, Him is interr%#ted by a second recitation o" sa"ety instr%ctions and the ca#tain,s anno%ncement that they,ll try to ma+e %# "or lost time. Him settles bac+ in his seat as the main engines +ic+ in, the )ings retract, the acceleration b%ilds, and the s+y dar+ens to blac+. Di+e the highest&#er"ormance roc+ets o" the 19;Cs, Him,s liner #rod%ces an exha%st o" #%re )ater va#or. /#ace"light has become clean, sa"e, and ro%tine. And every year, more #eo#le go %# than come do)n. !he cost o" s#ace"light is mostly the cost o" high&#er"ormance, reliable hard)are. 8olec%lar

man%"act%ring )ill ma+e aeros#ace str%ct%res "rom nearly "la)less, s%#erstrong materials at lo) cost. Add inex#ensive "%el, and s#ace )ill become more accessible than the other side o" the ocean is today. Cha#ter ; disc%sses the #ros#ects "or o#ening the )orld beyond Earth. .cenario: Restoring .#ecies Aestoration Day Ceremonies are al)ays moving events. =or some reason, the old #eo#le al)ays cry, even tho%gh they say they,re ha##y. Crying, !racy /tiegler thin+s, doesn*t ma#e any sense. /he loo+s again thro%gh the camo%"lage screen over the sandy !riangle Keys beach, ga.ing across the Caribbean to)ard the >%catMn Penins%la. Soon this will be theirs again, and that*s all to the good. !racy and the other scientists "rom (ioArchive have #ositions o" honor in today,s Aestoration Day Ceremony. /ince the mid&t)entieth cent%ry there had been no living Caribbean mon+ seals, only grisly relics o" the years o" their sla%ghter' seal "%rs and dry m%se%m s#ecimens. !racy,s team str%ggled "or years, gathering these relics and st%dying them )ith molec%lar instr%ments. 5t had been +no)n "or decadesIsince the 19;CsIthat genes are to%gh eno%gh to s%rvive in dried s+in, bone, horn, and eggshell. !racy,s team had collected genes and reb%ilt cells. !hey )or+ed "or years, and gave than+s to the strict #rotectionIlate, b%t good eno%ghIthat saved one related s#ecies. At last, a 4a)aiian mon+ seal had given birth to a genetically&#%re Caribbean mon+ seal, t)in to a seal long dead. And no) there )ere "ive h%ndred, some yo%ng, some middle&aged, )ith decent genetic diversity and "ive years, ex#erience living in the con"ines o" a coastal ecological station. !oday, )ith ra%co%s voices, they are moving o%t into the )orld to reclaim their ecological niche. As !racy )atches, she thin+s o" the voices that )ill never be heard again' o" the s#ecies, +no)n and %n+no)n, that le"t not a even a bloody scra# to be cherished and restored. !ho%sands 2millions*3 o" s#ecies had sim#ly been br%shed into extinction as habitats )ere destroyed by "arming and logging. Peo#le +ne):"or years they had +no)n:that "ree.ing or drying )o%ld save genes. And they +ne) o" the ecological destr%ction, and they +ne) they )eren,t sto##ing it. And the ignorant bastards didn,t even +ee# sam#les. !racy discovers that she, too, cries at Aestoration Day Ceremonies. Peo#le )ill s%rely #%sh biomedical a##lications o" nanotechnology "ar and "ast "or h%man health& care. 0ith a bit more #%shing, this technology base )ill be good eno%gh to restore some s#ecies no) tho%ght lost "orever, to re#air some o" the damage h%man beings have done to the )eb o" li"e. 5t )o%ld be better to #reserve ecosystems and s#ecies intact, b%t restoration, even o" a "e) s#ecies, )ill be "ar better than nothing. /ome sam#les "rom endangered s#ecies are being +e#t today, b%t not eno%gh, and mostly "or the )rong reasons. Cha#ter 9 )ill ta+e a closer loo+ at ecosystem restoration, and )hat "%t%re #ros#ects mean "or action ta+en today. .cenario: (n Unstable (r s Race Dis#%tes over technology develo#ment and trade had so%red relationshi#s bet)een /inga#ore and the Ha#an&?nited /tates alliance. Di#lomatic in$%iries regarding #ec%liar seismic and sonar readings in the /o%th China /ea had -%st beg%n )hen they s%ddenly became irrelevant' an estimated one billion tons o" %n"amiliar, highly&a%tomated military hard)are a##eared in coastal )aters aro%nd the )orld. Acc%sations began to "ly bet)een Congress and Peace0atch #ersonnel' 95" yo%,d done yo%r -obsI9 95" yo%,d let %s do o%r -obsI9 And so, in late =ebr%ary, /inga#ore emerged as a military s%#er#o)er. Do) cost, high $%ality, high&s#eed #rod%ction can be a##lied to many #%r#oses, not all attractive. anotechnology has enormo%s #otential "or ab%se.

+echnologies Revisited 8olec%les matter beca%se matter is made o" molec%les, and everything "rom air to "lesh to s#acecra"t is made o" matter. 0hen )e learn ho) to arrange molec%les in ne) )ays, )e can ma+e ne) things, and ma+e old things in ne) )ays. Perha#s this is )hy Ha#an,s 85!5 has identi"ied 9control technologies "or the #recision arrangement o" molec%les9 as a basic ind%strial technology "or the t)enty&"irst cent%ry. 8olec%lar nanotechnology )ill give thoro%gh control o" matter on a large scale at lo) cost, shattering a )hole set o" technological and economic barriers more or less at one stro+e. A molec%le is an ob-ect consisting o" a collection o" atoms held together by strong bonds 2one& atom molec%les are a s#ecial case3. 98olec%le9 %s%ally re"ers to an ob-ect )ith a n%mber o" atoms small eno%gh to be co%nted 2a "e) to a "e) tho%sand3, b%t strictly s#ea+ing a tr%c+ tire 2"or instance3 is mostly one big molec%le, containing something li+e 1,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC atoms. Co%nting this many atoms alo%d )o%ld ta+e abo%t 1C,CCC,CCC,CCC billion years. /cientists and engineers still have no direct, convenient )ay to control molec%les, basically beca%se h%man hands are abo%t 1C million times too large. !oday, chemists and materials scientists ma+e molec%lar str%ct%res indirectly, by mixing, heating, and the li+e. !he idea o" nanotechnology begins )ith the idea o" a molecular assembler, a device resembling an ind%strial robot arm b%t b%ilt on a microsco#ic scale. A general&#%r#ose molec%lar assembler )ill be a -ointed mechanism b%ilt "rom rigid molec%lar #arts, driven by motors, controlled by com#%ters, and able to gras# and a##ly molec%lar&scale tools. 8olec%lar assemblers can be %sed to b%ild other molec%lar machines:they can even b%ild more molec%lar assemblers. Assemblers and other machines in molec%lar man%"act%ring systems )ill be able to ma+e almost anything, i" given the right ra) materials. 5n e""ect, molec%lar assemblers )ill #rovide the microsco#ic 9hands9 that )e lac+ today. 2Chemists are as+ed to "orgive this literary licenseB the s#eci"ic details o" molec%lar binding and bonding don,t change the concl%sion.3 anotechnology )ill give better control o" molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s, o" ho) they move and go together to "orm more com#lex ob-ects. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e things by b%ilding "rom the bottom %#, starting )ith the smallest #ossible b%ilding bloc+s. !he nano in nanotechnology comes "rom nanos, the Gree+ )ord "or d)ar". 5n science, the #re"ix nano+ means one&billionth o" something, as in nanometer and nanosecond, )hich are ty#ical %nits o" si.e and time in the )orld o" molec%lar man%"act%ring. 0hen yo% see it tac+ed onto the name o" an ob-ect, it means that the ob-ect is made by #atterning matter )ith molec%lar control' nanomachine, nanomotor, nanocom#%ter. !hese are the smallest, most #recise devices that ma+e sense based on today,s science. 2(e ca%tio%s o" other %sages, tho%ghIsome researchers have beg%n to %se the nano+ #re"ix to re"er to other small&scale technologies in the laboratory today. 5n this boo+ nanotechnology means the recise, molecular nanotechnology o" the "%t%re. (ritish %sage also a##lies the term to the small&scale and high #recision technologies o" todayIeven to #recision grinding and meas%rement. !he latter are %se"%l, b%t hardly revol%tionary.3 Digital electronics bro%ght an in"ormation&#rocessing revol%tion by handling in"ormation $%ic+ly and controllably in #er"ect, discrete #ieces' bits and bytes. Di+e)ise, nanotechnology )ill bring a matter&#rocessing revol%tion by handling matter $%ic+ly and controllably in #er"ect, discrete #ieces' atoms and molec%les. !he digital revol%tion has centered on a device able to ma+e any desired #attern o" bits' the #rogrammable com#%ter. Di+e)ise, the nanotechnological revol%tion )ill center on a device able to ma+e 2almost3 any desired #attern o" atoms' the #rogrammable assembler. !he technologies that #lag%e %s today s%""er "rom the messiness and )ear o" an old #honogra#h record. anotechnology, in contrast, )ill bring the cris#, digital #er"ection o" a com#act disc. ( Road "a# !he next t)o sections say a bit more abo%t )hy nanotechnology is already )orth yo%r attention and abo%t )hether it,s #ossible to %nderstand anything abo%t the "%t%re. Dater cha#ters ans)er $%estions li+e the "ollo)ing'

0ho is )or+ing on nanotechnology* 0hat are they doing, and )hy* 4o) can this )or+ come together to #rovide brea+thro%gh ca#abilities* 0hen might this ha##en* 0hat develo#ments sho%ld )e )atch "or* 4o) )ill nanotechnology )or+* 0ho )ill be able to %se it* 0hat )ill it mean "or the economy* =or medicine* =or the environment* 0hat are its ris+s* 0hat basic reg%lations )ill )e need* 0hat )ill it mean "or the global arms race* 0hat might go )rong as this technology emerges, and )hat can )e do abo%t it*

5n a democratic society, only a "e) #eo#le need an in&de#th %nderstanding o" ho) a technology )or+s, b%t many #eo#le need to %nderstand )hat it can do. 5n the next cha#ter, )e,ll lead o"" by describing the molec%lar )orld and ho) it )or+s:a"ter all, everything aro%nd %s and inside %s is made o" molec%lesIb%t the main story is abo%t )hat this technology )ill mean "or h%man beings and the bios#here. Why Talk About It? 5t is these concerns:the im#lications o" nanotechnology "or o%r lives, the environment, and the "%t%re:that g%ided the )riting o" this boo+. anotechnology can bring great achievements and solve great #roblems, b%t it )ill li+e)ise #resent o##ort%nities "or enormo%s ab%se. Aesearch #rogress is necessary, b%t so is an in"ormed and ca%tio%s #%blic. @%r motivation in #resenting these ideas is as m%ch a "ear o" #otential harm, and a )ish to avoid it, as a longing "or the #otential good and a )ish to see+ it. Even so, )e )ill d)ell on the good that nanotechnology can bring and give only an o%tline o" the obvio%s #otential harm. !he coming revol%tion can best be managed by #eo#le )ho share not only a #ict%re o" )hat they )ish to avoid, b%t o" )hat they can achieve. 5" )e as a society have a clear vie) o" a ro%te to "ollo), )e )on,t need a #recise catalog o" every cli"" and mine "ield to the side o" the road. /ome )ill hear this em#hasis and call %s o#timistic. (%t )o%ld it really be )ise to d)ell on exactly ho) a technology can be ab%sed* @r to dra) %# bl%e#rints, #erha#s* /till, sitting here, #re#aring to tell this story, is an %ncom"ortable #lace "or a researcher to be. 5n his boo+ ,ow Su erstition Won and Science -ost, historian Hohn C. (%rnham tells o" the cent%ry&long retreat o" scientists "rom )hat they once sa) as their res#onsibility' #resenting the content and methods o" science to a broad a%dience, "or the #%blic good. !oday, the c%lt%re o" science ta+es a dim vie) o" 9#o#%lari.ation.9 5" yo% can )rite in #lain English, this is ta+en as evidence that yo% can,t do math, and vice versa. Aobert Pool, a member o" the ne)s sta"" o" the most #restigio%s American scienti"ic -o%rnal, Science, ac+no)ledges this negative attit%de in )riting that 9some researchers, either by choice or -%st by being in the )rong #lace at the )rong time, ma+e it into the #%blic eye.9 /o ho) can a researcher +ee# o%t o" tro%ble* 5" yo% st%mble on something im#ortant, )ra# it in -argon. 5" #eo#le reali.e that it,s im#ortant, r%n and hide. Aobert Pool gently %rges scientists to become more involved, b%t the social #ress%res in the research comm%nity are heavily in the other direction. 5n res#onse to this negative attit%de to)ard 9#o#%lari.ation,9 )e can only as+ that scientists and engineers try to act in a thoro%ghly #ro"essional "ashion )hen -%dging a given #ro#osal:)hich is to say, that they #ay scr%#%lo%s attention to the scienti"ic and technical "acts. !his means -%dging the validity o" technical ideas based on their "act%al merits, and not on their 2occasionally readable3 style o" #resentation, or on the emotional res#onse they may stir %#. anotechnology matters to #eo#le, and they deserve to +no) abo%t its "lesh&and&blood h%man conse$%ences, its im#act on society and nat%re. 0e %rge scienti"ically inclined readers to cons%lt the !echnical (ibliogra#hy at the end o" the boo+, and then to #oint o%t any ma-or errors they can "ind in the technical #a#ers on this to#ic. 0e

%rge nonscientists )ho enco%nter scienti"ically +no)ledgeable critics to as+ "or s ecific, technical criticisms. 0e,ll disc%ss some o" the criticisms made to date in Cha#ter F. >ears o" disc%ssion )ith scientists and engineersIin #%blic, in #rivate, at con"erences, and thro%gh the #ressIindicate that the case "or nanotechnology is solid. Ha#anese and E%ro#ean ind%stry, government, and academic researchers are "orging ahead on the road to nanotechnology, and more and more ?./. research is a##licable. /ome researchers have even beg%n to call it an obvio%s goal. !ords that 2loc' +hin'ing Americans, so o"ten in the "ore"ront o" science and technology, have a c%rio%s di""ic%lty in thin+ing abo%t the "%t%re. Dang%age seems to have something to do )ith it.

A serio%s #roblem. 2Calvin and ,obbes. Co yright ./0 "121 by Universal 3ress Syndicate. /e rinting with ermission. !ll rights reserved0 5" something so%nds "%t%reli+e, )e call it 9"%t%ristic.9 5" that doesn,t sto# the conversation, )e say that it 9so%nds li+e science "iction.9 !hese descri#tions remind listeners o" la%ghable 197Cs "antasies li+e roc+ets to the 8oon, video tele#hones, ray g%ns, robots, and the li+e. @" co%rse, all these became real in the 19<Cs, beca%se the science wasn*t "iction. !oday, )e can see not only ho) to b%ild additional science&"ictional devices, b%t:more im#ortant, "or better or )orse:ho) to ma+e them chea# and ab%ndant. 0e need to thin+ abo%t the "%t%re, and name&calling )on,t hel#. C%rio%sly, the Ha#anese lang%age seems to lac+ a dis#araging )ord "or 9"%t%reli+e.9 5deas "or "%t%re technologies may be termed mirai no 29o" the "%t%re,9 a ho#e or a goal3, sh4rai+te#i 2an ex#ected develo#ment, )hich might be t)enty years a)ay3, or #4s4 no 29imaginary9 only, beca%se contrary to #hysical la) or economics3. !o thin+ abo%t the "%t%re, )e need to disting%ish mirai no and sh4rai+te#i, li+e nanotechnology, "rom mere #4s4 no, li+e antigravity boots. A "inal ob-ection is the claim that there,s no #oint in trying to thin+ abo%t the "%t%re, beca%se it is all too com#lex and %n#redictable. !his is too s)ee#ing, b%t has more than a little tr%th. 5t deserves a considered res#onse. +he Di**iculty o* -oo'ing Forward 5" o%r "%t%re )ill incl%de nanotechnology, then it )o%ld be %se"%l to %nderstand )hat it can do, so that )e can ma+e more sensible #lans "or o%r "amilies, careers, com#anies, and society. (%t many intelligent #eo#le )ill res#ond that %nderstanding is im#ossible, that the "%t%re is -%st too %n#redictable. !his de#ends, o" co%rse, on )hat yo%,re trying to #redict' !he )eather a month "rom no)* =orget itB )eather is too chaotic. !he #osition o" the 8oon a cent%ry "rom no)* EasyB the 8oon,s orbit is li+e cloc+)or+.

0hich #ersonal&com#%ter com#any )ill lead t)enty years "rom no)* Good l%c+B ma-or com#anies today didn,t even exist t)enty years ago. !hat #ersonal com#%ters )ill become enormo%sly more #o)er"%l* A virt%al certainty. And so on. 5" yo% aim to say something sensible abo%t the "%t%re o" technology, the tric+ is to as+ the right $%estions and to avoid the standard #it"alls. 5n his boo+ %egamista#es& Forecasting and the %yth of /a id )echnological Change, /teven /chnaars s%rveys these #it"alls and their e""ects on #ast #redictions. (orro)ing and ada#ting some o" his generali.ations, here are o%r s%ggestions "or ho) to bl%nder into a 8egamista+e in "orecasting' 5gnore the scienti"ic "acts, or g%ess. =orget to as+ )hether anyone )ants the #ro-ected #rod%ct or sit%ation. 5gnore the costs. !ry to #redict )hich com#any or technology )ill )in.

5n loo+ing at )hat to ex#ect "rom nanotechnologyIor any technologyIall o" these m%st be avoided, since they can lead to some grand abs%rdities. 5n a classic demonstration o" the "irst error, someone once concocted the notion that #ills )o%ld someday re#lace "ood. (%t #eo#le need energy to live, and energy means calories, )hich means "%el, )hich ta+es %# room. !o s%bsist on #ills, yo%,d need to gobble them by the "ist"%l. !his )o%ld be li+e eating a tasteless +ibbled dog "ood, )hich )as hardly the idea. 5n short, the #ills&"or&"ood #rediction ignored the scienti"ic "acts. 5n a similar vein, )e once heard #romises o" a c%re "or cancerIb%t this )as based on a g%ess abo%t scienti"ic "acts, a g%ess that 9cancer9 )as in some sense a single disease, )hich might have a single #oint o" v%lnerability and a single c%re. !his g%ess )as )rong, and #rogress against cancer has been slo). Earlier, )e #resented a scenario that incl%des the ro%tine c%re o" a cancer %sing nanotechnology. !his scenario ta+es acco%nt o" the c%rrently +no)n "acts' Cancers di""er, b%t each +ind can be recogni.ed by its molec%lar mar+ers. 8olec%lar machines can recogni.e molec%lar mar+ers, and so can be #rimed to recogni.e and destroy s#eci"ic +inds o" cancer cells as they t%rn %#. 0e )ill ex#lore medical a##lications o" nanotechnology "%rther in Cha#ter 1C. Even nanotechnology can,t cram a meal into a #ill, b%t this is -%st as )ell. !he #ills&"or&"ood #ro#osal didn,t -%st ignore the "acts, it also ignored )hat #eo#le want'things li+e dinner conversation and novel ethnic c%isines. 8aga.ines once #romised cities beneath the sea, b%t )ho )ants to live in the %ltimate dam#, chilly climate* Cali"ornia and the /%nbelt have someho) #roved more #o#%lar. And again, )e )ere #romised tal+ing cars, b%t a"ter giving them a try, #eo#le #re"er l%x%ry cars "rom com#anies that #romise silence. 8any h%man )ants are easy to #redict, beca%se they are old and stable' Peo#le )ant better medical care, ho%sing, cons%mer goods, trans#ortation, ed%cation, and so "orth, #re"erably at lo)er costs, )ith greater sa"ety, in a cleaner environment. 0hen o%r limited abilities "orce %s to choose better $%ality or lo)er cost or greater sa"ety or a cleaner environment, decisions become stic+y. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill allo) a big ste# in the direction o" better $%ality and lo)er costs and increased sa"ety and a cleaner environment. 2Choices o" how much of each )ill remain.3 !here is no existing mar+et demand "or 9nanotechnology,9 as s%ch, b%t a great demand "or )hat it can do. eglecting costs has also been #o#%lar among #rognosticators' (%ilding cities %nder the sea )o%ld be ex#ensive, )ith "e) bene"its. (%ilding in s#ace has more bene"its, b%t )o%ld be "ar more ex#ensive, %sing #ast or #resent technologies. 8any bold #ro-ections gather d%st on shelves beca%se develo#ment or man%"act%ring costs are too high. /ome exam#les incl%de #ersonal robots, "lying cars, and 8oon colonies:they still so%nd more li+e 197Cs science "iction than #ractical #ossibilities, and cost is one ma-or reason. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring is, in #art, abo%t cost red%ction. As mentioned above, molec%lar

machines in nat%re ma+e things chea#ly, li+e )ood, #otatoes, and hay. !rees are more com#lex than s#acecra"t, so )hy sho%ld s#acecra"t stay more ex#ensive* Gordon !%lloc+, #ro"essor o" economics and #olitical science at the ?niversity o" Ari.ona, says o" molec%lar nanotechnology, 95ts economic e""ect is that )e )ill all be m%ch richer.9 !he #ros#ect o" b%ilding so#histicated #rod%cts "or the #rice o" #otatoes gives reason to #%ll a lot o" old #ro-ections do)n "rom the shel". 0e ho#e yo% )on,t mind the d%st )hen )e br%sh them o"" "or a "resh loo+. Even staying )ithin the bo%nds o" +no)n science, "oc%sing on things #eo#le )ant, and #aying attention to costs, it,s still hard to #ic+ a s#eci"ic )inner. !echnology develo#ment is li+e a horse race' everyone +no)s that some horse )ill )in, b%t +no)ing which horse is harder 2and )orth big b%c+s3. (oth cor#orate managers betting money and researchers betting their careers have to #lay this game, and they o"ten lose. A technology may )or+, #rovide something %se"%l, and be less ex#ensive than last year,s alternative, yet still be clobbered in the mar+et by something %nex#ected b%t better. !o +no) )hich technologies )ill )in, yo%,d have to +no) all the alternatives, )hether they,ve been invented yet or not. Good l%c+K 0e )on,t try to #lay that game here. 9 anotechnology9 2li+e 9modern ind%stry93 describes a h%ge range o" technologies. onetheless, nanotechnology in one "orm or another is a mon%mentally obvio%s idea' it )ill be the c%lmination o" an age&old trend to)ard more thoro%gh control o" the str%ct%re o" matter. Predicting that some "orm o" nanotechnology )ill )in most technology races is li+e #redicting that some horse )ill )in a horse race 2as o##osed to, say, a dachsh%nd3. A technology based on thoro%gh control o" the str%ct%re o" matter )ill almost al)ays beat one based on cr%de control o" the str%ct%re o" matter. @ther technologies have already )on races in the literal sense o" being first. =e), ho)ever, )ill )in in the sense o" being best. Ex#loratory Engineering /t%dies o" nanotechnology are today in the ex loratory engineering #hase, and -%st beginning to move into engineering develo#ment. !he basic idea o" ex#loratory engineering is sim#le' combine engineering #rinci#les )ith +no)n scienti"ic "acts to "orm a #ict%re o" "%t%re technological #ossibilities. Ex#loratory engineering loo+s at "%t%re #ossibilities to hel# g%ide o%r attention in the #resent. /cience:es#ecially molec%lar science:has moved "ast in recent decades. !here is no need to )ait "or more scienti"ic brea+thro%ghs in order to ma+e engineering brea+thro%ghs in nanotechnology.

Ex#loratory Engineering Jenn Diagram )he outer tagged rectangle re resents the set of all technologies ermitted by the laws of nature, whether they exist or not, whether they have been imagined or not. Within this set are those technologies that are manufacturable with today*s technology, and those that are understandable with

today*s science. )extboo#s teach what is understandable .hence teachable0 and manufacturable .hence immediately ractical0. 3ractical engineers achieve many successes by cut+and+try methods and ut them into roduction. Ex loratory engineers study what will become ractical as manufacturing abilities ex and to embrace more of the ossible. !he above ill%stration sho)s ho) ex#loratory engineering relates to more "amiliar +inds o" engineering. Each )or+s )ithin the limits o" the #ossible, )hich are set by the +no)n and %n+no)n la)s o" nat%re. !he most "amiliar +ind is the engineering ta%ght in schools' this 9textboo+ engineering9 covers technologies that can be both understood 2so they can be ta%ght3 and manufactured 2so they can be %sed3. (ridge&b%ilding and gearbox design "all in this category. @ther technologies, ho)ever, can be man%"act%red b%t aren,t %nderstoodIany engineer can give exam#les o" things that )or+ )hen similar things don,t, and "or no obvio%s reason. (%t as long as they do )or+, and )or+ consistently, they can be %sed )ith con"idence. !his is the )orld o" 9c%t&and&try engineering,9 so im#ortant to modern ind%stry. (earing l%brication, adhesives, and many man%"act%ring technologies advance by c%t&and&try methods. Ex#loratory engineering covers technologies that can be %nderstood b%t not man%"act%red:yet. !echnologies in this category are also "amiliar to engineers, altho%gh normally they design s%ch things only "or "%n. /o m%ch is +no)n abo%t mechanics, thermodynamics, electronics, and so "orth that engineers can o"ten calc%late )hat something )ill do, -%st "rom a descri#tion o" it. >et there is no reason )hy everything that can be correctly described m%st be man%"act%rableIthe constraints are di""erent. Ex#loratory engineering is as sim#le as textboo+ engineering, b%t neither military #lanners nor cor#orate exec%tives see m%ch #ro"it in it, so it hasn,t received m%ch attention. !he conce#ts o" molec%lar man%"act%ring and molec%lar are straight"or)ard res%lts o" ex#loratory engineering research a##lied to molec%lar systems. As )e observed above, the basic ideas co%ld have been )or+ed o%t "orty years ago, i" anyone had bothered. at%rally eno%gh, both scientists and engineers )ere #reocc%#ied )ith more immediate concerns. (%t no), )ith the threshold o" nanotechnology a##roaching, attention is beginning to "oc%s on )here the next ste#s lead. anotechnology seems to be )here the )orld is headed i" technology +ee#s advancing, and com#etition #ractically g%arantees that advances )ill contin%e. 5t )ill o#en both a h%ge range o" o##ort%nities "or bene"it and a h%ge range o" o##ort%nities "or mis%se. 0e )ill #aint scenarios to give a sense o" the #ros#ects and #ossibilities, b%t )e don,t o""er #redictions o" )hat )ill ha##en. Act%al h%man choices and bl%nders )ill de#end on a range o" "actors and alternatives beyond )hat )e can ho#e to antici#ate.

Cha#ter 3 +he "olecular !orld anotechnology )ill be a bottom&%# technology, b%ilding %#)ard "rom the molec%lar scale. 5t )ill bring a revol%tion in h%man abilities li+e that bro%ght by agric%lt%re or #o)er machinery. 5t can even be %sed li+e that bro%ght by agric%lt%re or #o)er machinery. (%t )e h%mans are h%ge creations )ith no direct ex#erience o" the molec%lar )orld, and this can ma+e nanotechnology hard to vis%ali.e, hence hard to %nderstand. /cientists )or+ing )ith molec%las "ace this #roblem today. !hey can o"ten calc%late ho) molec%les )ill behave, b%t to understand this behavior, they need more than hea#s o" n%mbers' they need #ict%res, movies, and interactive sim%lations, and so they are #rod%cing them at an ever& increasing #ace. !he ?./. ational /cience =o%ndation has la%nched a #rogramm in 9scienti"ic vis%ali.ation9, in #art to harness s%#ercom#%ters to the #roblem o" #ict%ring the molec%lar )orld. 8olec%les are ob-ects that exert "orces on one another. 5" yo%r hands )ere small eno%gh, yo% co%ld grab them, s$%ee.e them, and bash them together. ?nderstanding the molec%lar )orld is m%ch li+e %nderstanding any other #hysical )orld' it is a matter o" %nderstanding si.e, sha#e, strength, "orce, motion, and the li+e:a matter o" %nderstanding the di""erences bet)een sand, )ater, and roc+, or bet)een steel and soa# b%bbles. !oday,s vis%ali.ation tools give a taste o" )hat )ill become #ossible )ith tomorro),s "aster com#%ters and better 9virt%al realities,9 sim%lated environments that let yo% to%r a )orld that 9exists9 only as a model inside the com#%ter. (e"ore disc%ssing nanotechnology and ho) it relates to the technologies o" today, let,s try to get a more concrete %nderstanding o" the molec%lar )orld by describing a sim%lation embedded in a scenario. 5n this scenario, events and technologies described as dating "rom 199C or be"ore are historically acc%rateB those )ith later dates are either #ro-ections or mere scenario elements. !he descri#tive details in the sim%lation are )ritten to "it designs and calc%lations based on standard scienti"ic data, so the science isn,t "iction. Exploring the Molecular World 5n a scenario in the last cha#ter, )e sa) Hoel Gregory mani#%lating molec%les in the virt%al reality o" a sim%lated )orld %sing video goggles, tactile gloves, and a s%#ercom#%ter. !he early t)enty&"irst cent%ry sho%ld be able to do even better. 5magine, then, that today yo% )ere to ta+e a really long na#, overslee#, and )a+e %# decades later in a nanotechnological )orld. 5n the t)enty&"irst cent%ry, even more than in the t)entieth, it,s easy to ma+e things )or+ )itho%t %nderstanding them, b%t to a ne)comer m%ch o" the technology seems li+e magic, )hich is dissatis"ying. A"ter a "e) days, yo% )ant to %nderstand )hat nanotechnology is, on a g%t level. (ac+ in the late t)entieth cent%ry, most teaching %sed dry )ords and sim#le #ict%res, b%t no)I "or a to#ic li+e thisIit,s easier to ex#lore a sim%lated )orld. And so yo% decide to ex#lore a sim%lation o" the molec%lar )orld. Doo+ing thro%gh the broch%re, yo% read many tedio%s "acts abo%t the sim%lation' ho) acc%rate it is in describing si.es, "orces, motions, and the li+eB ho) similar it is to )or+ing tools %sed by both engineering st%dents and #ro"essionalsB ho) yo% can b%y one "or yo%r very o)n home, and so "orth. 5t ex#lains ho) yo% can to%r the h%man body, see state&o"&the&art nanotechnology in action, climb a bacteri%m, etc. =or starters, yo% decide to ta+e an introd%ctory to%r' sim%lations o" real t)entieth&cent%ry ob-ects alongside $%aint t)entieth&cent%ry conce#ts o" nanotechnology. A"ter #aying a small "ee and memori.ing a "e) +ey #hrases 2any variation o" 9Get me o%t o" hereK9 )ill do the most im#ortant -ob3, yo% #%ll on a #o)ers%it, #oc+et a !al+ing !o%rg%ide, ste# into the sim%lation chamber, and stra# the video goggles over yo%r eyes. Doo+ing thro%gh the goggles, yo% seem to be in a room )ith a table yo% +no) isn,t really there and )alls that seem too "ar a)ay to "it in the sim%lation chamber. (%t tric+ery )ith a treadmill "loor ma+es the )al+ to the )alls seem "ar eno%gh, and )hen yo% )al+ bac+ and th%m# the table, it "eels solid beca%se the #o)ers%it sto#s yo%r hand shar#ly at -%st the right #lace. >o% can even "eel the text%re o" the

carvings on the table leg, beca%se the s%it,s gloves #ress against yo%r "ingerti#s in the right #atterns as yo% move. !he sim%lation isn,t #er"ect, b%t it,s easy to ignore the de"ects. @n the table is 2or seems to be3 an old 199Cs silicon com#%ter chi#. 0hen yo% #ic+ it %#, as the beginners, instr%ctions s%ggest, it loo+s li+e =ig%re 1A. !hen yo% say, 9/hrin+ meK9, and the )orld seems to ex#and.

=5G?AE 1' P@0EA @= !E Frame .!0 shows a hand holding a com uter chi . )his is shown magnified "55 times in .B0. !nother factor of "55 magnification .C0 shows a living cell laced on the chi to show scale. 6et another factor of "55 magnification .70 shows two nanocom uters beside the cell. )he smaller .shown

as bloc#0 has roughly the same ower as the chi seen in the first view8 the larger .with only the corner visible0 is as owerful as mid+"125s mainframe com uter. !nother factor of "55 magnification .E0 shows an irregular rotein from the cell on the lower right, and a cylindrical gear made by molecular manufacturing at to left. )a#ing a smaller factor of "5 9um , .F0 shows two atoms in the rotein, with electron clouds re resented by sti ling. ! final factor of "55 magnification .:0 reveals the nucleus of the atom as a tiny s ec#. 4ision and "otion >o% "eel as tho%gh yo%,re "alling to)ard the chi#,s s%r"ace, shrin+ing ra#idly. 5n a moment, it loo+s ro%ghly li+e =ig%re 1(, )ith yo%r th%mb still there holding it. !he )orld gro)s bl%rrier, then everything seems to go )rong as yo% a##roach the molec%lar level. =irst, yo%r vision bl%rs to %selessnessIthere is light, b%t it becomes a "eat%reless "og. >o%r s+in is tic+led by small im#acts, then battered by )hat "eel li+e hard&thro)n marbles. >o%r arms and legs "eel as tho%gh they are ca%ght in t%rb%lence, #%lling to and "ro, harder and harder. !he gro%nd hits yo%r "eet, yo% st%mble and stic+ to the gro%nd li+e a "ly on "ly#a#er, battered so hard that it almost h%rts. >o% as+ed "or realism, and only the b%ilt&in sa"ety limits in the s%it +ee# the sim%lated thermal

motions o" air molec%les and o" yo%r o)n arms "rom beating yo% senseless. 9/to#K9 gives yo% a rest "rom the s%it,s yan+ing and th%m#ing, and 9/tandard settingsK9 ma+es the )orld aro%nd yo% become more reasonable. !he sim%lation changes, introd%cing the standard cheats. >o%r sim%lated eyes are no) smaller than a light )ave, ma+ing "oc%s im#ossible, b%t the goggles sna# yo%r vision into shar#ness and sho) the atoms aro%nd yo% as small s#heres. 2Aeal nanomachines are as blind as yo% )ere a moment ago, and can,t cheat.3 >o% are on the s%r"ace o" the 199Cs com#%ter chi#, bet)een a cell and t)o bloc+y nanocom#%ters li+e the ones in =ig%re 1D. >o%r sim%lated body is 7C nanometers tall, abo%t 11GC,CCC,CCC yo%r real si.e, and the smaller nanocom#%ter is t)ice yo%r height. At that si.e, yo% can 9see9 atoms and molec%les, as in =ig%re 1E. !he sim%lation +ee#s bombarding yo% )ith air molec%les, b%t the standard settings leave o%t the sensation o" being #elted )ith marbles. A moment ago yo% )ere st%c+ tight to the gro%nd by molec%lar stic+iness, b%t the standard settings give yo%r m%scles the e""ective strength o" steel Iat least in sim%lationIby ma+ing everything aro%nd yo% m%ch so"ter and )ea+er. !he to%rg%ide says that the only %nreal "eat%res o" the sim%lation have to do )ith you'not -%st yo%r ability to see and to ignore thermal sha+ing and bombardment, b%t also yo%r sheer existence at a si.e too small "or anything so com#lex as a h%man being. 5t also ex#lains )hy yo% can see things move, something abo%t slo)ing do)n everything aro%nd yo% by a "actor o" 1C "or every "actor o" 1C enlargement, and by another "actor to allo) "or yo%r being made stronger and hence "aster. And so, )ith yo%r greater strength and some ad-%stments to ma+e yo%r arms, legs, and torso less stic+y, yo% can stand, see, "eel, and ta+e stoc+ o" the sit%ation. "olecular +exture !he gro%nd %nder"oot, li+e everything aro%nd yo%, is #ebbly )ith atom&si.ed b%m#s the si.e o" yo%r "ingerti#s. @b-ects loo+ li+e b%nches o" trans#arent gra#es or "%sed marbles in a variety o" #retty b%t imaginary colors. !he sim%lation dis#lays a vie) o" atoms and molec%les m%ch li+e those %sed by chemists in the 19;Cs, b%t )ith a shar#er F&D image and a better )ay to move them and to "eel the "orces they exert. Act%ally, the )hole sim%lation set%# is nothing b%t an im#roved version o" systems b%ilt in the late 19;CsIthe com#%ter is "aster, b%t it is calc%lating the same things. !he video goggles are better and the )hole&body #o)ers%it is a ma-or change, b%t even in the 19;Cs there )ere F&D dis#lays "or molec%les and cr%de devices that gave a sense o" to%ching them. !he gloves on this s%it give the sensation o" to%ching )hatever the com#%ter sim%lates. 0hen yo% r%n a "ingerti# over the side o" the smaller nanocom#%ter, it "eels odd, hard to describe. 5t is as i" the s%r"ace )ere magnetic:it #%lls on yo%r "ingerti# i" yo% move close eno%gh. (%t the res%lt isn,t a shar# clic+ o" contact, beca%se the s%r"ace isn,t hard li+e a magnet, b%t strangely so"t. !o%ching the s%r"ace is li+e to%ching a "ilm o" "og that grades smoothly into "oam r%bber, then hard r%bber, then steel, all )ithin the thic+ness o" a sheet o" corr%gated cardboard. 8oving side)ays, yo%r "ingerti# "eels no text%re, no "riction, -%st smooth b%m#s more sli##ery than oil, and a tendency to get #%lled into hollo)s. P%lling "ree o" the s%r"ace ta+es a "irm t%g. !he sim%lation ma+es yo%r atom&si.ed "ingerti#s "eel the same "orces that an atom )o%ld. 5t is strange ho) sli##ery the s%r"ace isIand it can,t have been l%bricated, since even a single oil molec%le )o%ld be a l%m# the si.e o" yo%r th%mb. !his sli##eriness ma+es it obvio%s ho) nano& scale bearings can )or+, ho) the #arts o" molec%lar machines can slide smoothly. (%t on to# o" this, there is a tingling "eeling in yo%r "ingers, li+e the sensation o" to%ching a )or+ing lo%ds#ea+er. 0hen yo% #%t yo%r ear against the )all o" the nanocom#%ter, yo% "linch bac+' "or a moment, yo% heard a so%nd li+e the hiss o" a t)entiethIcent%ry television t%ned to a channel )ith no broadcast, )ith nothing b%t sno) and staticIb%t lo%d, #ain"%lly lo%d. All the atoms in the s%r"ace are vibrating at high "re$%encies, too "ast to see. !his is thermal vibration, and it,s obvio%s )hy it,s also called thermal noise.

Gas and -i/uid 5ndivid%al molec%les still move too $%ic+ly to see. /o, to add one more cheat to the sim%lation, yo% iss%e the command 90hoaK9, and everything aro%nd seems to slo) do)n by a "actor o" ten. @n the s%r"ace, yo% no) can see thermal vibrations that had been too $%ic+ to "ollo). All aro%nd, air molec%les become easier to )atch. !hey )hi. abo%t as thic+ as raindro#s in a storm, b%t they are the si.e o" marbles and bo%nce in all directions. !hey,re also stic+y in a magnetli+e )ay, and some are s+idding aro%nd on the )all o" the nanocom#%ter. 0hen yo% grab one, it sli#s a)ay. 8ost are li+e t)o "%sed s#heres, b%t yo% s#ot one that is #er"ectly ro%ndIit is an argon atom, and these are "airly rare. 0ith a "irm gri# on all sides to +ee# it "rom shooting a)ay li+e a )atermelon seed, yo% #inch it bet)een yo%r steel&strong "ingers. 5t com#resses by abo%t 1C #ercent be"ore the resistance is more than yo% can overcome. 5t s#rings bac+ #er"ectly and instantly )hen yo% relax, then bo%nces "ree o" yo%r gri#. Atoms have an %n"amiliar #er"ection abo%t them, resilient and %nchanging, and they s%rro%nd yo% in thic+ s)arms. At the base o" the )all is a ch%rning blob that can only be a dro#let o" )ater. /coo#ing %# a hand"%l "or a closer loo+ yields a s)arm o" molec%les, h%ndreds, all t%mbling and b%mbling over one another, b%t clinging in a coherent mass. As yo% )atch, tho%gh, one brea+s "ree o" the li$%id and "lies o"" into the "reer chaos o" the s%rro%nding air' the )ater is eva#orating. /ome slide %# yo%r arm and lodge in the arm#it, b%t event%ally s+itter a)ay. Getting rid o" all the )ater molec%les ta+es too m%ch scra#ing, so yo% command 9Clean meK9 to dry o"". +oo . all and +oo -arge (eside yo%, the smaller nanocom#%ter is a bloc+ t)ice yo%r height, b%t it,s easy to climb %# onto it as the to%rg%ide s%ggests. Gravity is less im#ortant on a small scale' even a "ly can de"y gravity to )al+ on a ceiling, and an ant can li"t )hat )o%ld be a tr%c+ to %s. At a sim%lated si.e o" "i"ty nanometers, gravity co%nts "or nothing. 8aterials +ee# their strength, and are -%st as hard to bend or brea+, b%t the )eight o" an ob-ect becomes negligible. Even )itho%t the strength& enhancement that lets yo% overcome molec%lar stic+iness, yo% co%ld li"t an ob-ect )ith GC million times yo%r mass:li+e a #erson o" normal si.e li"ting a box containing a hal"&do.en "%lly loaded oil tan+ers. !o sim%late this )ea+ gravity, the #o)ers%it cradles yo%r body,s )eight, ma+ing yo% "eel as i" yo% )ere "loating. !his is almost li+e a vacation in an orbital theme #ar+, )al+ing )ith stic+yboots on )alls, ceilings, and )hatnot, b%t )ith no need "or antina%sea medication. @n to# o" the nanocom#%ter is a stray #rotein molec%le, li+e the one in =ig%re 1E. !his loo+s li+e a cl%ster o" gra#es and is abo%t the same si.e. 5t even "eels a bit li+e a b%nch o" gra#es, so"t and loose. !he #arts don,t "ly "ree li+e a gas or t%mble and )ander li+e a li$%id, b%t they do $%iver li+e gelatin and sometimes "lo# or t)ist. 5t is solid eno%gh, b%t the "olded str%ct%re is not as strong as yo%r steel "ingers. 5n the 199Cs, #eo#le began to b%ild molec%lar machinery o%t o" #roteins, co#ying biology. 5t )or+ed, b%t it,s easy to see )hy they moved on to better materials. =rom a sim%lated #oc+et, yo% #%ll o%t a sim%lated magni"ying glass and loo+ at the sim%lated #rotein. !his sho)s a #air o" bonded atoms on the s%r"ace at 1C times magni"ication, loo+ing li+e =ig%re 1=. !he atoms are almost trans#arent, b%t even a close loo+ doesn,t reveal a n%cle%s inside, beca%se it,s too small to see. 5t )o%ld ta+e 1,CCC times magni"ication to be able to see it, even )ith the head start o" being able to see atoms )ith yo%r na+ed eye. 4o) co%ld #eo#le ever con"%se big, #l%m# atoms )ith tiny s#ec+s li+e n%clei* Aemembering ho) yo%r steel&strong "ingers co%ldn,t #ress more than a "raction o" the )ay to)ard the n%cle%s o" an argon atom "rom the air, it,s clear )hy n%clear "%sion is so di""ic%lt. 5n "act, the to%rg%ide said that it )o%ld ta+e a real&)orld #ro-ectile over a h%ndred times "aster than a high&#o)ered ri"le b%llet to #enetrate into the atomic core and let t)o n%clei "%se. !ry as yo% might, there -%st isn,t anything yo% co%ld "ind in the molec%lar )orld that co%ld reach into the middle o" an atom to meddle )ith its n%cle%s. >o% can,t to%ch it and yo% can,t see it, so yo% sto# s$%inting tho%gh the magni"ying glass. %clei -%st aren,t o" m%ch interest in nanotechnology.

Pu55le Chains !a+ing the advice o" the to%rg%ide, yo% grab t)o molec%lar +nobs on the #rotein and #%ll. 5t resists "or a moment, b%t then a loo# comes "ree, letting other loo#s "lo# aro%nd more, and the )hole str%ct%re seems to melt into a )rithing coil. A"ter a bit o" #%lling and )restling, the #rotein,s str%ct%re becomes obvio%s' 5t is a long chain:longer than yo% are tall, i" yo% co%ld get it straightIand each segment o" the chain has one o" several +inds o" +nobs stic+ing o"" to the side. 0ith the m%lticolored, glassy&bead #ortrayal o" atoms, the #rotein chain resembles a "lamboyant nec+lace. !his may be decorative, b%t ho) does it all go bac+ together* !he chain "lo#s and t)ists and thrashes, and yo% #%ll and #%sh and t)ist, b%t the original tight, solid #ac+ing is lost. !here are more )ays to go )rong in "olding %# the chain than there are in solving A%bi+,s C%be, and no) that the "olded str%ct%re is gone, it isn,t even clear )hat the res%lt sho%ld loo+ li+e. 4o) did those t)entieth&cent%ry researchers ever solve the notorio%s 9#rotein "olding #roblem9* 5t,s a matter o" record that they started b%ilding #rotein ob-ects in the late 19;Cs. !his #rotein molec%le )on,t go bac+ together, so yo% try to brea+ it. A "irm gri# and a #o)er"%l yan+ straightens a section a bit, b%t the chain holds together and sna#s bac+. !ho%gh %n"olding it )as easy, even m%scles )ith the strength o" steelIthe strength o" /%#ermanIcan,t brea+ the chain itsel". Chemical bonds are ama.ingly strong, so it,s time to cheat again. 0hen yo% say, 9=limsy )orld:one secondK9 )hile #%lling, yo%r hands easily move a#art, s#litting the chain in t)o be"ore its strength ret%rns to normal. >o%,ve "orced a chemical change, b%t there m%st be easier )ays since chemists do their )or+ )itho%t tiny s%#erhands. 0hile yo% com#are the bro+en ends, they thrash aro%nd and b%m# together. !he third time this ha##ens, the chain re-oins, as strong as be"ore. !his is li+e having sna#&together #arts, b%t the sna#s are "ar stronger than )elded steel. 8odern assembler chemistry %s%ally %ses other a##roaches, b%t seeing this ha##en ma+es the idea o" molec%lar assembly more %nderstandable' P%t the right #ieces together in the right #ositions, and they sna# together to ma+e a bigger str%ct%re. Aemembering the 90hoaK9 command, yo% decide to go bac+ to the #ro#erly scaled s#eed "or yo%r si.e and strength. /aying 9/tandard settingsK,9 yo% see the thrashing o" the #rotein chain s#eed %# to hard&to&"ollo) bl%r. Nano achines At yo%r "eet is a ribbed, ringed cylindrical ob-ect abo%t the si.e o" a so%# cannot a messy, loosely "olded strand li+e the #rotein 2be"ore it "ell a#art3, b%t a solid #iece o" modern nanotechnology. 5t,s a gear li+e the one in =ig%re 1E. Pic+ing it %#, yo% can immediately "eel ho) di""erent it is "rom a #rotein. 5n the gear, everything is held in #lace by bonds as strong as those that str%ng together the beads o" the #rotein chain. 5t can,t %n"old, and yo%,d have to cheat again to brea+ its #er"ect symmetry. Di+e those in the )all o" the nanocom#%ter, its solidly attached atoms vibrate only slightly. !here,s another gear nearby, so yo% "it them together and ma+e the atomic teeth mesh, )ith b%m#s on one "itting into hollo)s on the other. !hey stic+ together, and the so"t, slic+ atomic s%r"aces let them roll smoothly. ?nder"oot is the nanocom#%ter itsel", a h%ge mechanism b%ilt in the same rigid style. Climbing do)n "rom it, yo% can see thro%gh the trans#arent layers o" the )all to )atch the inner )or+s. An electric motor an arm&s#an )ide s#ins inside, t%rning a cran+ that drives a set o" oscillating rods, )hich in t%rn drive smaller rods. !his doesn,t loo+ li+e a com#%terB it loo+s more li+e an engineer,s "antasy "rom the nineteenth cent%ry. (%t then, it is an anti$%e design:the to%rg%ide said that the original #ro#osal )as a #iece o" ex#loratory engineering dating "rom the mid&19;Cs, a mechanical design that )as s%#erseded by im#roved electronic designs be"ore anyone had the tools to b%ild even a #rototy#e. !his sim%lation is based on a version b%ilt by a hobbyist many years later. !he mechanical nanocom#%ter may be cr%de, b%t it does )or+, and it,s a lot smaller and more e""icient than the electronic com#%ters o" the early 199Cs. 5t,s even some)hat "aster. !he rods slide bac+ and "orth in a bl%r o" motion, bloc+ing and %nbloc+ing each other in changing #atterns,

)eaving #atterns o" logic. !his nanocom#%ter is a stri##ed&do)n model )ith almost no memory, %seless by itsel". Doo+ing beyond it, yo% see the other bloc+:the one on the le"t in =ig%re 1D: )hich contains a machine #o)er"%l eno%gh to com#ete )ith most com#%ters b%ilt in 199C. !his com#%ter is a millionth o" a meter on a side, b%t "rom )here yo% stand, it loo+s li+e a bloc+y b%ilding looming over ten stories tall. !he to%rg%ide says that it contains over 1CC billion atoms and stores as m%ch data as a room "%ll o" boo+s. >o% can see some o" the storage system inside' ro) %#on ro) o" rac+s containing s#ools o" molec%lar ta#e some)hat li+e the #rotein chain, b%t )ith sim#le b%m#s re#resenting the 1s and Cs o" com#%ter data. !hese nanocom#%ters seem big and cr%de, b%t the gro%nd yo%,re no) standing on is also a com#%ter:a single chi# "rom 199C, ro%ghly as #o)er"%l as the smaller, stri##ed&do)n nanocom#%ter at yo%r side. As yo% ga.e o%t over the chi#, yo% get a better sense "or -%st ho) cr%de things )ere a "e) decades ago. At yo%r "eet, on the smallest scale, the chi# is an irreg%lar mess. Altho%gh the )all o" the nanocom#%ter is #ebbly )ith atomic&scale b%m#s, the b%m#s are as reg%lar as tile. !he chi#,s s%r"ace, tho%gh, is a -%mble o" l%m#s and mo%nds. !his #attern s#reads "or do.ens o" #aces in all directions, ending in an irreg%lar cli"" mar+ing the edge o" a single transistor. (eyond, yo% can see other ridges and #latea%s stretching o"" to the hori.on. !hese "orm grand, reg%lar #atterns, the circ%its o" the com#%ter. !he hori.on:the edge o" the chi#:is so distant that )al+ing there "rom the center )o%ld 2as the to%rg%ide )arns3 ta+e days. And these vast #ieces o" landsca#ing )ere considered t)entieth&cent%ry miracles o" miniat%ri.ation* Cells and 2odies Even bac+ then, research in molec%lar biology had revealed the existence o" smaller, more #er"ect machines s%ch as the #rotein molec%les in cells. A sim%lated h%man cell:#%t here beca%se earlier visitors )anted to see the si.e com#arisons:its on the chi# next to the smaller nanocom#%ter. !he to%rg%ide #oints o%t that the sim%lation cheats a bit at this #oint, ma+ing the cell act as tho%gh it )ere in a )atery environment instead o" air. !he cell d)ar"s the nanocom#%ter, s#ra)ling across the chi# s%r"ace and rearing into the s+y li+e a small mo%ntain. 0al+ing the nat%re trail aro%nd its edge )o%ld lead across many transistor&#latea%s and ta+e abo%t an ho%r. A glance is eno%gh to sho) ho) di""erent it is "rom a nanocom#%ter or a gear' it loo#s organic, it b%lges and c%rves li+e a blob o" liver, b%t its s%r"ace is shaggy )ith )aving molec%lar chains. 0al+ing %# to its edge, yo% can see that the membrane )ra##ing the cell is "l%id 2cell walls are "or sti"" things li+e #lants3, and the membrane molec%les are in constant motion. @n an im#%lse, yo% thr%st yo%r arm thro%gh the membrane and #o+e aro%nd inside. >o% can "eel many #roteins b%m#ing and t%mbling aro%nd in the cell,s interior "l%id, and a crisscrossing net)or+ o" #rotein cables and beams. /ome)here inside are the molec%lar machines that made all these #roteins, b%t s%ch bits o" machinery are embedded in a roiling, organic mass. 0hen yo% #%ll yo%r arm o%t, the membrane "lo)s closed behind. !he "l%id, dynamic str%ct%re o" the cell is largely sel" healing. !hat,s )hat let scientists #er"orm ex#erimental s%rgery on cells )ith the old, cr%de tools o" the t)entieth cent%ry' !hey didn,t need to stitch %# the holes they made )hen they #o+ed aro%nd inside. Even a single h%man cell is h%ge and com#lex. o real thin+ing being co%ld be as small as yo% are in the sim%lation' A sim#le com#%ter )itho%t any memory is t)ice yo%r height, and the larger nanocom#%ter, the si.e o" an a#artment com#lex, is no smarter than one o" the s%bmoronic com#%ters o" 199C. ot even a bendable "inger co%ld be as small as yo%r sim%lated "ingers' in the sim%lation, yo%r "ingers are only one atom )ide, leaving no room "or the slimmest #ossible tendon, to say nothing o" nerves. =or a last loo+ at the organic )orld, yo% ga.e o%t #ast the hori.on and see the image o" yo%r o)n, "%ll&si.ed th%mb holding the chi# on )hich yo% stand. !he b%lge o" yo%r th%mb rises ten times higher than 8o%nt Everest. Above, "illing the s+y, is a "ace looming li+e the Earth seen

"rom orbit, ga.ing do)n. 5t is yo%r o)n "ace, )ith chee+s the si.e o" continents. !he eyes are motionless. !hin+ing o" the to%rg%ide,s data, yo% remember' !he sim%lation %ses the standard mechanical scaling r%les, so being GC million times smaller has made yo% GC million times "aster. !o let yo% #%ll "ree o" s%r"aces, it increased yo%r strength by more than a "actor o" 1CC, )hich increased yo%r s#eed by more than a "actor o" 1C. /o one second in the ordinary )orld corres#onds to over GCC million here in the sim%lation. 5t )o%ld ta+e years to see that h%ge "ace in the s+y com#lete a single eyeblin+. Eno%gh. At the command 9Get me o%tK9, the molec%lar )orld vanishes, and yo%r "eeling o" )eight ret%rns as the s%it goes slac+. >o% stri# o"" the video gogglesIand h%gely, slo)ly, blin+.

Cha#ter 6 2otto 0U# +echnology !he to%r in the last cha#ter sho)ed the si.es, "orces, and general nat%re o" ob-ects in the molec%lar )orld. (%ilding on this, )e can get a better #ict%re o" )here develo#ments seem to be leading, a better #ict%re o" molec%lar man%"act%ring itsel". !o sho) the si.es, "orces, and general nat%re o" things in molec%lar man%"act%ring, )e "irst invite the reader 2and the reader,s in$%isitive alter ego3 to ta+e a second and "inal to%r be"ore ret%rning to the )orld o" #resent&day research. As be"ore, the #re&199C history is acc%rate, and the science isn,t "iction. +he .ilicon 4alley Faire !he to%r o" the molec%lar )orld sho)ed some #rod%cts o" molec%lar man%"act%ring, b%t didn,t sho) ho) they )ere made. !he technologies yo% remember "rom the old days have mostly been re#lacedIb%t ho) did this ha##en* !he /ilicon Jalley =aire is advertised as 9An a%thentic theme #ar+ ca#t%ring li"e, )or+, and #lay in the early (rea+thro%gh years.9 /ince 9)or+9 m%st incl%de man%"act%ring, it seems )orth a visit. A broad dome ca#s the #ar+ I9!o "%lly ca#t%re the a%thentic sights, so%nds, and smells o" the era,9 the to%rg%ide #olitely says. 5nside, the clothes and hairstyles, the ne)s#a#er headlines, the b%m#er&to&b%m#er tra""ic, all loo+ m%ch as they did be"ore yo%r long na#. A light ha.e obsc%res the b%ildings on the "ar side o" the dome, yo%r eyes b%rn slightly, and the air smells tr%ly a%thentic. Pocket Libraries !he ano"abricators, 5nc., #lant o""ers the main dis#lay o" early nanotechnology. As yo% near the b%ilding, the to%rg%ide mentions that this is indeed the original man%"act%ring #lant, given landmar+ stat%s over t)enty years ago, then made the center#iece o" the /ilicon Jalley =aire ten years later, )hen . . . 0ith a "e) ta#s, yo% reset the #oc+et to%rg%ide to s#ea+ %# less o"ten. As #eo#le "ile into the ano"abricator #lant, there,s a moment o" h%shed $%iet, a sense o" )al+ing into history. ano"abricators' home o" the /%#erChi#, the "irst mass&mar+et #rod%ct o" nanotechnology. 5t )as the h%ge memory ca#acity o" /%#erChi#s that made #ossible the "irst Poc+et Dibrary. !his section o" the #lant no) ho%ses a series o" dis#lays, incl%ding )or+ing re#licas o" early #rod%cts. Pic+ing %# a Poc+et Dibrary, yo% "ind that it,s not only the si.e o" a )allet, b%t abo%t the same )eight. >et it has eno%gh memory to record every vol%me in the Dibrary o" Congress: something li+e a million times the ca#acity o" a #ersonal com#%ter "rom 199C. 5t o#ens )ith a "li#, the t)o&#anel screen lights %#, and a )orld o" )ritten +no)ledge is at yo%r "ingerti#s. 5m#ressive. 90o), can yo% believe these things*9 says another to%rist as he "ingers a Poc+et Dibrary. 94ardly any video, no F&D:-%st )ords, so%nd, and "lat #ict%res. And the costK 5 )o%ldn,t,ve bo%ght Nem "or my +ids at that #riceK9 >o%r to%rg%ide $%ietly states the #rice' abo%t )hat yo% remember "or a to#&o"&the&line !J set "rom 199C. !his isn,t the chea# man%"act%ring #romised by mat%re nanotechnology, b%t it seems li+e a #retty good #rice "or a library. 4mm . . . ho) did they )or+ o%t the co#yrights and royalties* !here,s a lot more to this #rod%ct than -%st the technology . . . Nanofabrication !he next room dis#lays more technology. 4ere in the )or+room )here /%#erChi#s )ere "irst made, early nanotech man%"act%ring is s#read o%t on dis#lay. !he )hole set%# is s%r#risingly $%iet and ordinary. (ac+ in the 19;Cs and 199Cs, chi# #lants had care"%lly controlled clean

rooms )ith go)ns and mas+s on )or+ers and visitors, s#ecial )or+stations, and care"%lly cra"ted air "lo)s to +ee# d%st a)ay "rom #rod%cts. !his room has none o" that. 5t,s even a little gr%bby. 5n the middle o" a big s$%are table are a hal"&do.en steel tan+s, abo%t the si.e and sha#e o" old& "ashioned mil+ cans. Each can has a di""erent label identi"ying its contents' 8E8@A> (D@CK/, DA!A&!AA /85//5@ (D@CK/, 5 !EA=ACE (D@CK/. !hese are the #arts needed "or b%ilding %# the chi#. Clear #lastic t%bes, carrying clear and tea&colored li$%ids, emerge "rom the mo%ths o" the mil+ cans and dra#e across the table. !he t%bes end in "ist&si.ed boxes mo%nted above shallo) dishes sitting in a ring aro%nd the cans. As the di""erent li$%ids dri# into each dish, a beater li+e a +itchen mixer s)irls the li$%id. 5n each dish, nanomachines are b%ilding /%#erChi#s. A ano"ab 9engineer,9 dressed in #eriod clothing com#lete )ith name badge, is setting %# a dish to begin b%ilding a ne) chi#. 9!his,9 he says, holding %# a blan+ )ith a #air o" t)ee.ers, 9is a silicon chi# li+e the ones made )ith #re&brea+thro%gh technology. Com#anies here in this valley made chi#s li+e these by melting silicon, "ree.ing it into l%m#s, sa)ing the l%m#s into slices, #olishing the slices, and then going thro%gh a long series o" chemical and #hotogra#hic ste#s. 0hen they )ere done, they had a #attern o" lines and blobs o" di""erent materials on the s%r"ace. Even the smallest o" these blobs contained billions o" atoms, and it too+ several blobs )or+ing together to store a single bit o" in"ormation. A chi# this si.e, the si.e o" yo%r "ingernail, co%ld store only a "raction o" a billion bits. 4ere at ano"ab, )e %sed bare silicon chi#s as a base "or b%ilding %# nanomemory. !he #ict%re on the )all here sho)s the s%r"ace o" a blan+ chi#' no transistors, no memory circ%its, -%st "ine )ires to connect %# )ith the nanomemory )e b%ilt on to#. !he nanomemory, even in the early days, stored thousands o" billions o" bits. And )e made them li+e this, b%t a tho%sand at a time:9 4e #laces the chi# in the dish, #resses a b%tton, and the dish begins to "ill )ith li$%id. 9A "e) years latter,9 he adds, 9)e got rid o" the silicon chi#s entirely9:he #ro#s %# a sign saying !45/ C45P (?5DD (EGA A!' E'17 P.8., E/!58A!ED C@8PDE!5@ !58E' 1'CC A.8.:9 and )e s#ed %# the constr%ction #rocess by a "actor o" a tho%sand.9 !he chi#s in the dishes all loo+ #retty m%ch the same exce#t "or color. !he ne) chi# loo+s li+e d%ll metal. !he only di""erence yo% can see in the older chi#s, "%rther along in the #rocess, is a smooth rectang%lar #atch covered by a "ilm o" dar+er material. An animated "lo)chart on the )all sho)s ho) layer %#on layer o" nanomemory b%ilding bloc+s are grabbed "rom sol%tion and laid do)n on the s%r"ace to ma+e that "ilm. !he to%rg%ide ex#lains that the energy "or this #rocess, li+e the energy "or molec%lar machines )ithin cells, comes "rom dissolved chemicals:"rom oxygen and "%el molec%les. !he total amo%nt o" energy needed here is trivial, beca%se the amo%nt o" #rod%ct is trivial' at the end o" the #rocess, the total thic+ness o" nanomemory str%ct%re:the memory store "or a Poc+et Dibrary:amo%nts to one&tenth the thic+ness o" a sheet o" #a#er, s#read over an area smaller than a #ostage stam#. "olecular (sse bly !he animated "lo)chart sho)ed nanomemory b%ilding bloc+s as big things containing abo%t a h%ndred tho%sand atoms a#iece 2it ta+es a moment to remember that this is still s%bmicrosco#ic3. !he b%ild #rocess in the dishes stac+ed these bloc+s to ma+e the memory "ilm on the /%#erChi#, b%t ho) )ere the bloc+s themselves b%ilt* !he hard #art in this molec%lar& man%"act%ring b%siness has got to be at the bottom o" the )hole #rocess, at the stage )here molec%les are #%t together to ma+e large, com#lex #arts. !he /ilicon Jalley =aire o""ers sim%lations o" this molec%lar assembly #rocess, and at no extra charge. =rom the to%rg%ide, yo% learn that modern assembly #rocesses are com#lexB that earlier #rocesses:li+e those %sed by ano"abricators, 5nc. :%sed clever&b%t&obsc%re engineering tric+sB and that the sim#lest, earliest conce#ts )ere never b%ilt. 0hy not begin at the beginning* A short )al+ ta+es yo% to the 8%se%m o" Anti$%e Conce#ts, the "irst )ing o" the 8%se%m o" 8olec%lar 8an%"act%ring.

A #ee+ inside the "irst hall sho)s several #eo#le strolling aro%nd )earing loosely "itting -%m#s%its )ith attached goggles and gloves, staring at nothing and #laying mime )ith invisible ob-ects. @h )ell, )hy not -oin the "ools, #arade* /te##ing thro%gh the door)ay )hile )earing the s%it is entirely di""erent. !he goggles sho) a normal )orld o%tside the door and a molec%lar )orld inside. o) yo%, too, can see and "eel the exhibit that "ills the hall. 5t,s m%ch li+e the earlier sim%lated molec%lar )orld' it shares the standard settings "or si.e, strength, and s#eed. Again, atoms seem GC million times larger, abo%t the si.e o" yo%r "ingerti#s. !his sim%lation is a bit less thoro%gh than the last )as:yo% can "eel sim%lated ob-ects, b%t only )ith yo%r gloved hands. Again, everything seems to be made o" $%ivering masses o" "%sed marbles, each an atom. =5G?AE E' A//E8(DEA 05!4 =AC!@A> @ C45P

! factory;large enough to ma#e over "5 million nanocom uters er day would fit on the edge one of today*s integrated circuits. (nset shows an assembler arm together with wor# iece on a conveyor belt. 90elcome,9 says the to%rg%ide, 9to a 199C conce#t "or a molec%lar&man%"act%ring #lant. !hese ex#loratory engineering designs )ere never intended "or act%al %se, yet they demonstrate the basics o" molec%lar man%"act%ring' ma+ing #arts, testing them, and assembling them.9 8achinery "ills the hall. @verall, the sight is reminiscent o" an a%tomated "actory o" the 19;Cs or 199Cs. 5t seems clear eno%gh )hat m%st be going on' (ig machines stand beside a conveyor belt loaded )ith hal"&"inished&loo+ing bloc+s o" some material 2this set%# loo+s m%ch li+e =ig%re E3B the machines m%st do some sort o" )or+ on the bloc+s. H%dging by the conveyor belt, the bloc+s event%ally move "rom one arm to the next %ntil they t%rn a corner and enter the next hall. /ince nothing is real, the exhibit can,t be damaged, so yo% )al+ %# to a machine and give it a #o+e. 5t seems as solid as the )all o" the nanocom#%ter in the #revio%s to%r. /%ddenly, yo% notice something odd' no bombarding air molec%les and no dro#lets o" )ater:in "act, no loose molec%les any)here. Every atom seems to be #art o" a mechanical system, $%ivering thermal vibration, b%t other)ise #er"ectly controlled. Everything here is li+e the nanocom#%ter or li+e the to%gh little gearB none o" it resembles the loosely coiled #rotein or the roiling mass o" the living cell.

!he conveyor belt seems motionless. At reg%lar intervals along the belt are bloc+s o" material %nder constr%ction' )or+#ieces. !he nearest bloc+ is abo%t a h%ndred marble&b%m#s )ide, so it m%st contain something li+e 1CC x 1CC x 1CC atoms, a "%ll million. !his bloc+ loo+s strangely "amiliar, )ith its rods, cran+, and the rest. 5t,s a nanocom#%ter:or rather, a bloc+li+e #art o" a nanocom#%ter still %nder constr%ction. /tanding alongside the #ieces o" nanocom#%ter on the conveyor belt, dominating the hall, is a ro) o" h%ge mechanisms. !heir tr%n+s rise "rom the "loor, as thic+ as old oa+s. Even tho%gh they bend over, they rear overhead. 9Each machine,9 yo%r to%rg%ide says, 9is the arm o" a general&#%r#ose molec%lar assembler. @ne assembler arm is bent over )ith its ti# #ressed to a bloc+ on the conveyor belt. 0al+ing closer, yo% see molec%lar assembly in action. !he arm ends in a "ist&si.ed +nob )ith a "e) #rotr%ding marbles, li+e +n%c+les. Aight no), t)o $%ivering marbles:atoms:are #ressed into a small hollo) in the bloc+. As yo% )atch, the t)o s#heres shi"t, sna##ing into #lace in the bloc+ )ith a $%ic+ t)itch o" motion' a chemical reaction. !he assembler arm -%st stands there, nearly motionless. !he "ist has lost t)o +n%c+les, and the bloc+ o" nanocom#%ter is t)o atoms larger. !he to%rg%ide holds "orth' 9!his general&#%r#ose assembler conce#t resembles, in essence, the "actory robots o" the 19;Cs. 5t is a com#%ter&controlled mechanical arm that moves molec%lar tools according to a series o" instr%ctions. Each tool is li+e a single&shot sta#ler or rivet g%n. 5t has a handle "or the assembler to grab and comes loaded )ith a little bit o" matter "e) atoms:)hich it attaches to the )or+#iece by a chemical reaction.9 !his is li+e the re-oining o" the #rotein chain in the earlier to%r. Molecular Precision !he atoms seemed to -%m# into #lace easily eno%ghB can they -%m# o%t o" #lace -%st as easily* (y no) the assembler arm has cre#t bac+ "rom the s%r"ace, leaving a small ga#, so yo% can reach in and #o+e at the ne)ly added atoms. Po+ing and #rying do no good' 0hen yo% #%sh as hard as yo% can 2)ith yo%r sim%lated "ingers as strong as steel3, the atoms don,t b%dge by a visible amo%nt. /trong molec%lar bonds hold them in #lace. >o%r #oc+et to%rg%ide:)hich has been a##lying the #o)er o" a tho%sand 199Cs s%#ercom#%ters to the tas+ o" deciding )hen to s#ea+ %#:remar+s, 98olec%lar bonds hold things together. 5n strong, stable materials atoms are either bonded, or they aren,t, )ith no #ossibilities in bet)een. Assemblers )or+ by ma+ing and brea+ing bonds, so each ste# either s%cceeds #er"ectly or "ails com#letely. 5n #re&brea+thro%gh man%"act%ring, #arts )ere al)ays made and #%t together )ith small inacc%racies. !hese co%ld add %# to )rec+ #rod%ct $%ality. At the molec%lar scale, these #roblems vanish. /ince each ste# is #er"ectly #recise, little errors can,t add %#. !he #rocess either )or+s, or it doesn,t.9 (%t )hat abo%t those de"inite, com#lete "ail%res* =ired by scienti"ic c%riosity, yo% )al+ to the next assembler, grab the ti#, and sha+e it. Almost nothing ha##ens. 0hen yo% shove as hard as yo% can, the ti# moves by abo%t one&tenth o" an atomic diameter, then s#rings bac+. 9!hermal vibrations can ca%se mista+es by ca%sing #arts to come together and "orm bonds in the )rong #lace,9 the to%rg%ide remar+s. 9!hermal vibrations ma+e "lo##y ob-ects bend "%rther than sti"" ones, and so these assembler arms )ere designed to be thic+ and st%bby to ma+e them very sti"". Error rates can be +e#t to one in a trillion, and so small #rod%cts can be #er"ectly reg%lar and #er"ectly identical. Darge #rod%cts can be almost #er"ect, having -%st a "e) atoms o%t o" #lace.9 !his sho%ld mean high reliability. @ddly, most o" the things yo%,ve been seeing o%tside have loo+ed #retty ordinary:not slic+, shiny, and #er"ect, b%t ro%gh and homey. !hey m%st have been manufactured that )ay, or made by hand. /lic+, shiny things m%st not im#ress anyone anymore.

Molecular

obotics

(y no), the assembler arm has moved by several atom&)idths. !hro%gh the transl%cent sides o" the arm yo% can see that the arm is "%ll o" mechanisms' t)irling sha"ts, gears, and large, slo)ly t%rning rings that drive the rotation and extension o" -oints along the tr%n+. !he )hole system is a h%ge, artic%lated robot arm. !he arm is big beca%se the smallest #arts are the si.e o" marbles, and the machinery inside that ma+es it move and bend has many, many #arts. 5nside, another mechanism is at )or+' !he arm no) ends in a hole, and yo% can see the old, s#ent molec%lar tool being retracted thro%gh a t%be do)n the middle. Patience, #atience. 0ithin a "e) min%tes, a ne) tool is on its )ay bac+ %# the t%be. Event%ally, it reaches the end. /ha"ts t)irl, gears t%rn, and clam#s loc+ the tool in #osition. @ther sha"ts t)irl, and the arm slo)ly leans %# against the )or+#iece again at a ne) site. =inally, )ith a t)itch o" motion, more atoms -%m# across, and the bloc+ is again -%st a little bit bigger. !he cycle begins again. !his h%ge arm seems ama.ingly slo), b%t the standard sim%lation settings have shi"ted s#eeds by a "actor o" over GCC million. A "e) min%tes o" sim%lation time corres#ond to less than a millionth o" a second o" real time, so this sti"", sl%ggish arm is com#leting abo%t a million o#erations #er second. Peering do)n at the very base o" the assembler arm, yo% can get a glim#se o" yet more assembler&arm machinery %nderneath the "loor' Electric motors s#in, and a nanocom#%ter ch%gs a)ay, rods #%m#ing "%rio%sly. All these rods and gears move $%ic+ly, sliding and t%rning many times "or every cycle o" the #ondero%s arm. !his seems ine""icientB the mechanical vibrations m%st generate a lot o" heat, so the electric motors m%st dra) a lot o" #o)er. 4aving a com#%ter control each arm is a lot more a)+)ard no) than it )as in #re&brea+thro%gh years. (ac+ then, a robot arm )as big and ex#ensive and a com#%ter )as a chea# chi#B no) the com#%ter is bigger than the arm. !here m%st be a better )ay:b%t then, this is the 8%se%m o" Anti$%e Conce#ts. !uilding"!locks into !uildings 0here do the bloc+s go, once the assemblers have "inished )ith them* =ollo)ing the conveyor belt #ast a do.en arms, yo% stroll to the end o" the hall, t%rn the corner, and "ind yo%rsel" on a balcony overloo+ing a vaster hall beyond. 4ere, -%st o"" the conveyor belt, a bloc+ sits in a com#lex "ixt%re. 5ts #arts are moving, and an enormo%s arm looms over it li+e a constr%ction crane. A"ter a moment, the to%rg%ide s#ea+s %# and con"irms yo%r s%s#icion' 9A"ter man%"act%ring, each bloc+ is tested. Darge arms #ic+ %# #ro#erly made bloc+s. 5n this hall, the larger arms assemble almost a tho%sand bloc+s o" vario%s +inds to ma+e a com#lete nanocom#%ter. !he grand hall has its o)n conveyor belt, bearing a series o" #artially com#leted nanocom#%ters. Arrayed along this grand belt is a ro) o" grand arms, able to s)ing to and "ro, to reach do)n to lesser conveyor belts, #l%c+ million&atom bloc+s "rom testing stations, and #l%g them into the grand )or+#ieces, the nanocom#%ters %nder constr%ction. !he belt r%ns the length o" the hall, and at the end, "inished nanocom#%ters t%rn a corner:to a yet&grander hall beyond* A"ter ga.ing at the "inal&assembly hall "or several min%tes, yo% notice that nothing seems to have moved. 8ere #atience )on,t do' at the rate the smaller arms moved in the hall behind yo%, each bloc+ m%st ta+e months to com#lete, and the grand bloc+&handling arms are ta+ing "%ll advantage o" the leis%re this #rovides. (%ilding a com#%ter, start to "inish, might ta+e a terribly long time. Perha#s as long as the blin+ o" an eye. 8olec%lar assemblers b%ild bloc+s that go to bloc+ assemblers. !he bloc+ assemblers b%ild com#%ters, )hich go to system assemblers, )hich b%ild systems, )hich:at least one #ath "rom molec%les to large #rod%cts seems clear eno%gh. 5" a car )ere assembled by normal&si.ed robots "rom a tho%sand #ieces, each #iece having been assembled by smaller robots "rom a tho%sand smaller #ieces, and so on, do)n and do)n, then only ten levels o" assembly #rocess )o%ld se#arate cars "rom molec%les. Perha#s, aro%nd a "e) more corners and do)n a "e) more

ever&larger halls, yo% )o%ld see a #ost&brea+thro%gh car in the ma+ing, )ith %nrecogni.able engine #arts and com"ortable seating being sna##ed together in a cent%ry&long #rocess in a hall so vast that the Paci"ic @cean )o%ld be a #%ddle in the corner . . . H%st ten ste#s in si.eB eight, starting )ith bloc+s as big as the ones made in the hall behind yo%. !he molec%lar )orld seems closer, vie)ed this )ay. Molecular Processing /te##ing bac+ into that hall, yo% )onder ho) the #rocess begins. 5n every cycle o" their sl%ggish motion, each molec%lar assembler gets a "resh tool thro%gh a t%be "rom some)here beneath the "loor, and that somewhere is )here the story o" molec%lar #recision begins. And so yo% as+, 90here do the tools come "rom*9, and the to%rg%ide re#lies, 9>o% might )ant to ta+e the elevator to yo%r le"t.9 /te##ing o%t o" the elevator and into the basement, yo% see a )ide hall "%ll o" small conveyor belts and #%lleysB a large #i#e r%ns do)n the middle. A #la$%e on the )all says, 98echanochemical #rocessing conce#t, circa 199C.9 As %s%al, all the motions seem rather slo), b%t in this hall everything that seems designed to move is visibly in motion. !he general "lo) seems to be a)ay "rom the #i#e, thro%gh several ste#s, and then %# thro%gh the ceiling to)ard the hall o" assemblers above. A"ter )al+ing over to the #i#e, yo% can see that it is nearly trans#arent. 5nside is a seething chaos o" small molec%les' the )all o" the #i#e is the bo%ndary bet)een loose molec%les and controlled ones, b%t the loose molec%les are )ell con"ined. 5n this sim%lation, yo%r "ingerti#s are li+e small molec%les. o matter ho) hard yo% #%sh, there,s no )ay to drive yo%r "inger thro%gh the )all o" the #i#e. Every "e) #aces along the #i#e a "itting -%ts o%t, a ho%sing )ith a mechanically driven rotating thing, ex#osed to the li$%id inside the #i#e, b%t also ex#osed to a belt r%nning over one o" the #%lleys, embedded in the ho%sing. 5t,s hard to see exactly )hat is ha##ening. !he to%rg%ide s#ea+s %#, saying, 9Poc+ets on the rotor ca#t%re single molec%les "rom the li$%id in the #i#e. Each rotor #oc+et has a si.e and sha#e that "its -%st one o" the several di""erent +inds o" molec%le in the li$%id, so the #rocess is rather selective. Ca#t%red molec%les are then #%shed into the #oc+ets on the belt that,s )ra##ed over the #%lley there, then:9 9Eno%gh,9 yo% say. =ine, it singles o%t molec%les and stic+s them into this ma.e o" machinery. Pres%mably, the machines can sort the molec%les to ma+e s%re the right +inds go to the right #laces. !he belts loo# bac+ and "orth carrying big, +nobby masses o" molec%les. 8any o" the #%lleys:rollers*:#ress t)o belts together inside a ho%sing )ith a%xiliary rollers. 0hile yo% are loo+ing at one o" these, the to%rg%ide says, 9Each +nob on a belt is a mechanochemical& #rocessing device. 0hen t)o +nobs on di""erent belts are #ressed together in the right )ay, they are designed to trans"er molec%lar "ragments "rom one to another by means o" a mechanically "orced chemical reaction. 5n this )ay, small molec%les are bro+en do)n, recombined, and "inally -oined to molec%lar tools o" the sort %sed in the assemblers in the hall above. 5n this device here, the rollers create a #ress%re e$%al to the #ress%re "o%nd hal")ay to the center o" the Earth, s#eeding a reaction that:9 9=ine, "ine,9 yo% say. Chemists in the old days managed to ma+e ama.ingly com#lex molec%les -%st by mixing di""erent chemicals together in sol%tion in the right order %nder the right conditions. 4ere, molec%les can certainly be bro%ght together in the right order, and the conditions are m%ch better controlled. 5t stands to reason that this care"%lly designed ma.e o" #%lleys and belts can do a better -ob o" molec%le #rocessing than a test t%be "%ll o" disorgani.ed li$%id ever co%ld. =rom a li$%id, thro%gh a sorter, into a mill, and o%t as tools' this seems to be the story o" molec%le #rocessing. All the belts are loo#s, so the machinery -%st goes aro%nd and

aro%nd, carrying and trans"orming molec%lar #arts. !eyond Anti#ues !his system o" belts seems terribly sim#le and e""icient, com#ared to the #ondero%s arms driven by "rantic com#%ters in the hall above. 0hy sto# )ith ma+ing sim#le tools* >o% m%st have m%ttered this, beca%se the to%rg%ide s#ea+s %# again and says, 9!he /#ecial&Assembler Exhibit sho)s another early molec%lar&man%"act%ring conce#t that %ses the #rinci#les o" this molec%le&#rocessing system to b%ild large, com#lex ob-ects. 5" a system is b%ilding only a single #rod%ct, there is no need to have com#%ters and "lexible arms move #arts aro%nd. 5t is "ar more e""icient to b%ild a machine in )hich everything -%st moves on belts at a constant s#eed, adding small #arts to larger ones and then bringing the larger ones together as yo% sa) at the end o" the hall above.9 !his does seem li+e a more sensible )ay to ch%rn o%t a lot o" identical #rod%cts, b%t it so%nds li+e -%st more o" the same. Gears li+e "%sed marbles, belts li+e coarse bead)or+, drive sha"ts, #%lleys, machines and more machines. 5n a "e) #laces, marbles sna# into ne) #atterns to #re#are a tool or ma+e a #rod%ct. Aoll, roll, ch%g, ch%g, #o#, sna#, then roll and ch%g some more. As yo% leave the sim%lation hall, yo% as+, 95s there anything im#ortant 5,ve missed in this molec%lar man%"act%ring to%r*9 !he to%rg%ide la%nches into a list' 9>es:the inner )or+ings o" assembler arms, )ith drive sha"ts, )orm gears, and harmonic drivesB the %se o" Diels&Alder reactions, inter"acial "ree&radial chain reactions, and dative&bond "ormation to -oin bloc+s together in the larger&scale stages o" assemblyB di""erent +inds o" mechanochemical #rocessing "or #re#aring reactive molec%lar toolsB the %se o" staged&cascade methods in #roviding "eed&molec%les o" the right +inds )ith near& #er"ect reliabilityB the di""erences bet)een e""icient and ine""icient ste#s in molec%lar #rocessingB the %se o" red%ndancy to ens%re reliability in large systems des#ite s#oradic damageB modern methods o" b%ilding large ob-ects "rom smaller bloc+sB modern electronicB modern methods "or:9 9Eno%ghK9 yo% say, and the to%rg%ide "alls silent as yo% #itch it into a recycling bin. A co%rse in molec%lar man%"act%ring isn,t )hat yo%,re loo+ing "or right no)B the general idea seems clear eno%gh. 5t,s time to ta+e another loo+ at the )orld on a more normal scale. 4o%ses, roads, b%ildings, even the landsca#e loo+ed di""erent o%t there beyond the =aire dome:less cro)ded, #aved, and #lo)ed than yo% remember. (%t )hy* !he history boo+s 2)ell, they,re more than -%st boo#s3 say that molec%lar man%"act%ring made a big di""erenceB #erha#s no) the changes )ill ma+e more sense. >es, it,s time to leave. As yo% toss yo%r goggled, gloved -%m#s%it into another bin, a stri+ing dar+&haired )oman is ta+ing a "resh one "rom a rac+. /he )ears a -ac+et embla.oned )ith the name 9Desert Aose ano8an%"act%ring.9 94o),d yo% li+e it*9 she as+s )ith a smile. 9Pretty ama.ing,9 yo% say. 9>es,9 she agrees. 95 sa) this sim bac+ )hen 5 )as ta+ing my "irst molec%lar& man%"act%ring class. 5 s)ore 5,d never design anything so cl%n+yK !his )hole set%# really brings bac+ the memories:5 can,t )ait to see i" it,s as cr%de as 5 remember.9 /he ste#s into the sim%lation hall and closes the door. Crude +echnology As the /ilicon Jalley =aire scenario sho)s, molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill )or+ m%ch li+e ordinary man%"act%ring, b%t )ith devices b%ilt so small that a single loose molec%le o" #oll%tant )o%ld be li+e a bric+ heaved into a machine tool. Hohn 0al+er o" A%todes+, a leading com#any in com#%ter&aided

design, observes that nanotechnology and today,s cr%de methods are very di""erent' 9!echnology has never had this +ind o" #recise controlB all o" o%r technologies today are b%l+ technologies. 0e ta+e a big ch%n+ o" st%"" and hac+ a)ay at it %ntil )e,re le"t )ith the ob-ect )e )ant, or )e assemble #arts "rom com#onents )itho%t regard to str%ct%re at the molec%lar level.9 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill orchestrate atoms into #rod%cts o" sym#honic com#lexity, b%t modern man%"act%ring mostly ma+es lo%d noises. !hese "ig%rative noises are sometimes all too literal' A crac+ in a metal "orging gro)s %nder stress, a )ing "ails, and a #assenger -et crashes "rom the s+y. A chemical reaction goes o%t o" control, heat and #ress%re b%ild, and a #oisono%s blast sha+es the co%ntryside. A li"esaving #rod%ct cannot be made, a heart "ails, and a hos#ital,s heart&monitoring machine signals the end )ith a high&#itched )ail. !oday, )e ma+e many things "rom metal, by machining. =rom the #ers#ective o" o%r standard, sim%lated molec%lar )orld, a ty#ical metal #art is a #iece o" terrain many days, -o%rney across. !he metal itsel" is )ea+ com#ared to the bonds o" the #rotein chain or other to%gh nanomechanisms' solid steel is no stronger than yo%r sim%lated "ingers, and the atoms on its s%r"ace can be #%shed aro%nd )ith yo%r bare hands. /tanding on a #iece o" metal being machined in a lathe, yo% )o%ld see a c%tting blade cra)l #ast a "e) times #er year, li+e a ma-estic #lo%gh the si.e o" a mo%ntain range. Each #ass )o%ld ri# %# a stri# o" the metal landsca#e, leaving a r%gged valley broad eno%gh to hold a to)n. !his is machining "rom a nanotechnological #ers#ective' a #rocess that hac+s cr%de sha#es "rom intrinsically )ea+ materials. !oday, electronics are made "rom silicon chi#s. 0e have already seen the landsca#e o" a "inished chi#. D%ring man%"act%ring, metal "eat%res )o%ld be b%ilt %# by a cent%ries&long dri..le o" metal&atom rain, and hollo)s )o%ld be "ormed by a cent%ries&long s%bmergence in an acid sea. =rom the #ers#ective o" o%r sim%lation, the )hole #rocess )o%ld resemble geology as m%ch as man%"act%ring, )ith the slo) layering o" sedimentary de#osits alternating )ith ages o" erosion. !he term nanotechnology is sometimes %sed as a name "or small&scale microtechnology, b%t the di""erence bet)een molec%lar man%"act%ring and this sort o" microlandsca#ing is li+e the di""erence bet)een )atchma+ing and b%lldo.ing. !oday, chemists ma+e molec%les by sol%tion chemistry. 0e have seen )hat a li$%id loo+s li+e in o%r "irst sim%lation, )ith molec%les b%m#ing and t%mbling and )andering aro%nd. H%st as assemblers can ma+e chemical reactions occ%r by bringing molec%les together mechanically, so reactions can occ%r )hen molec%les b%m# at random thro%gh thermal vibration and motion in a li$%id. 5ndeed, m%ch o" )hat )e +no) today abo%t chemical reactions comes "rom observing this #rocess. Chemists ma+e large molec%les by mixing small molec%les in a li$%id. (y choosing the right molec%les and conditions, they can get a s%r#rising meas%re o" control over the res%lts' only some #airs o" molec%les )ill react, and then only in certain )ays. Doing chemistry this )ay, tho%gh, is li+e trying to assemble a model car by #%tting the #ieces in a box and sha+ing. !his )ill only )or+ )ith cleverly sha#ed #ieces, and it is hard to ma+e anything very com#lex. Chemists today consider it challenging to ma+e a #recise, three&dimensional str%ct%re having a h%ndred atoms, and ma+ing one )ith a tho%sand atoms is a great accom#lishment. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring, in contrast, )ill ro%tinely assemble millions or billions. !he basic chemical #rinci#les )ill be the same, b%t control and reliability )ill be vastly greater. 5t is the di""erence bet)een thro)ing things together blindly and #%tting them together )ith a )atchma+er,s care. !echnology today doesn,t #ermit thoro%gh control o" the str%ct%re o" matter. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill. !oday,s technologies have given %s com#%ters, s#acecra"t, indoor #l%mbing, and the other )onders o" the modern age. !omorro),s )ill do m%ch more, bringing change and choices. .i #le "atter, . art "atter !oday,s technology mostly )or+s )ith matter in a "e) basic "orms' gases, li$%ids, and solids. !ho%gh each "orm has many varieties, all are com#aratively sim#le.

Gases, as )e,ve seen, consist o" molec%les ricocheting thro%gh s#ace. A vol%me o" gas )ill #%sh against its )alls and, i" not )alled in, ex#and )itho%t limit. Gases can s%##ly certain ra) materials "or nanomachines, and nanomachines can be %sed to remove #oll%tants "rom air and t%rn them into something else. Gases lac+ str%ct%re, so they )ill remain sim#le. Di$%ids are some)hat li+e gases, b%t their molec%les cling together to "orm a coherent blob that )on,t ex#and beyond a certain limit. Di$%ids )ill be good so%rces o" ra) materials "or nanomachines beca%se they are denser and can carry a )ide range o" "%els and ra) materials in sol%tion 2the #i#e in the molec%lar&#rocessing hall contained li$%id3. anomachines can clean %# #oll%ted )ater as easily as air, removing and trans"orming noxio%s molec%les. Di$%ids have more str%ct%re than gases, b%t nanotechnology )ill have its greatest a##lication to solids. /olids are diverse. /olid b%tter consists o" molec%les stronger than steel, b%t the molec%les cling to one another by the )ea+er "orces o" molec%lar stic+iness. A little heat increases thermal vibrations and ma+es the solid str%ct%re disintegrate into a blob o" li$%id. (%tterli+e materials )o%ld ma+e #oor nanomachines. 8etals consist o" atoms held together by stronger "orces, and so they can be str%ct%rally stronger and able to )ithstand higher tem#erat%res. !he "orces are not very directional, tho%gh, and so #lanes o" metal atoms can sli# #ast one another %nder #ress%reB this is )hy s#oons bend, rather than brea+. !his ability to sli# ma+es metals less brittle and easier to sha#e 2)ith cr%de technology3, b%t it also )ea+ens them. @nly the strongest, hardest, highest&melting #oint metals are )orth considering as #arts o" nanomachines.

=5G?AE F' CAA(@ &/@=! A D 4AAD <n the left is gra hite;the material called =lead= in encils;made of carbon atoms. <n right is diamond;the same atoms arranged in a different attern. Diamond consists o" carbon atoms held together by strong, directional bonds, li+e the bonds do)n the axis o" a #rotein chain. 2/ee =ig%re F.3 !hese directional bonds ma+e it hard "or #lanes o" atoms to sli# #ast one another, ma+ing diamond 2and similar materials3 very strong indeed:ten to a h%ndred times stronger than steel. (%t the #lanes can,t easily sli#, so )hen the material "ails, it doesn,t bend, it brea+s. !iny crac+s can easily gro), ma+ing a large ob-ect seem )ea+. Glass is a similar material' glass )indo)s seem )ea+:and a scratch ma+es glass "ar )ea+er:yet thin, #er"ect glass "ibers are )idely %sed to ma+e com#osite materials stronger and lighter than steel. anotechnology )ill be able to b%ild )ith diamond and similar strong materials, ma+ing small, "la)less "ibers and com#onents. 5n engineering today, diamond is -%st beginning to be %sed. Ha#an has #ioneered a technology "or ma+ing diamond at lo) #ress%re, and a Ha#anese com#any sells a s#ea+er )ith excellent high& "re$%ency res#onse:the s#ea+er cone is rein"orced )ith a light, sti"" "ilm o" diamond. Diamond is

extraordinary st%"", made "rom chea# materials li+e nat%ral gas. ?./. com#anies are scrambling to catch %#. All these materials are sim#le. 8ore com#lex str%ct%res lead to more com#lex #ro#erties, and begin to give some hint o" )hat molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill mean "or materials. 0hat i" yo% str%ng carbon atoms in long chains )ith side&gro%#s, a bit li+e a #rotein chain, and lin+ed them into a big three&dimensional mesh* 5" the chains )ere +in+ed so that they co%ldn,t #ac+ tightly, they )o%ld coil %# and "lo# aro%nd almost li+e molec%les in a li$%id, yet the strong bonds )o%ld +ee# the overall mesh intact. P%lling the )hole net)or+ )o%ld tend to straighten the chains, b%t their )rithing motions )o%ld tend to coil them bac+ %#. !his sort o" net)or+ has been made' it is called r%bber. A%bber is )ea+ mostly beca%se the net)or+ is irreg%lar. 0hen stretched, "irst one chain brea+s, then another, beca%se they don,t all become ta%t at the same time to share and divide the load. A more reg%lar mesh )o%ld be as so"t as r%bber at "irst, b%t )hen stretched to the limit )o%ld become stronger than steel. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring co%ld ma+e s%ch st%"". !he nat%ral )orld contains a host o" good materials:cell%lose and lignin in )ood, stronger&than& steel #roteins in s#ider,s sil+, hard ceramics in grains o" sand, and more. 8any #rod%cts o" molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill be designed "or great d%rability, li+e sand. @thers )ill be designed to "all a#art easily "or easy recycling, li+e )ood. /ome may be designed "or %ses )here they may be thro)n a)ay. 5n this last category, nanotailored biodegradables )ill shine. 0ith care, almost any sort o" #rod%ct "rom a shoe to com#%ter&driven nanomachines can be made to last "or a good long time, and then %n.i# "airly ra#idly and very thoro%ghly into molec%les and other bits o" st%"" all o" +inds normally "o%nd in the soil. !his gives only a hint o" )hat molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e #ossible by giving better control o" the str%ct%re o" solid matter. !he most im#ressive a##lications )ill not be s%#erstrong str%ct%ral materials, im#roved r%bber, and sim#le biodegradable materials' these are %ni"orm, re#etitive str%ct%res not greatly di""erent "rom ordinary materials. !hese materials are 9st%#id.9 0hen #%shed, they resist, or they stretch and bo%nce bac+. 5" yo% shine light on them, they transmit it, re"lect it, or absorb it. (%t molec%lar man%"act%ring can do m%ch more. Aather than hea#ing %# sim#le molec%les, it can b%ild materials "rom trillions o" motors, ratchets, light&emitters, and com#%ters. 8%scle is smarter than r%bber beca%se it contains molec%lar machines' it can be told to contract. !he #rod%cts o" molec%lar man%"act%ring can incl%de materials able to change sha#e, color, and other #ro#erties on command. 0hen a d%st mote can contain a s%#ercom#%ter, materials can be made smart, medicine can be made so#histicated, and the )orld )ill be a di""erent #lace. /mart materials )ill be disc%ssed in Cha#ter ;. $deas and Criticis s 0e,ve -%st seen a #ict%re o" molec%lar man%"act%ring 2o" one sort3 and o" )hat it can do 2in s+etchy o%tline3. o) let,s loo+ at the idea o" nanotechnology itsel"' 0here did it come "rom, and )hat do the ex#erts thin+ o" it* !he next cha#ter )ill have more to say on the latter #oint, #resenting the tho%ghts o" researchers )ho are advancing the "ield thro%gh their o)n )or+. $rigins !he idea o" molec%lar nanotechnology, li+e most ideas, has roots stretching "ar bac+ in time. 5n ancient Greece, Democrit%s s%ggested that the )orld )as b%ilt o" d%rable, invisible #articles:atoms, the b%ilding bloc+s o" solid ob-ects, li$%ids, and gases. 5n the last h%ndred years, scientists have learned more and more abo%t these b%ilding bloc+s, and chemists have learned more and more )ays to combine them to ma+e ne) things. Decades ago, biologists "o%nd molec%les that do com#lex thingsB they termed them 9molec%lar machines.9

Physicist Aichard =eynman )as a visionary o" miniat%ri.ation )ho #ointed to)ard something li+e molec%lar nanotechnology' on December E9, 1979, in an a"ter&dinner tal+ at the ann%al meeting o" the American Physical /ociety, he #ro#osed that large machines co%ld be %sed to ma+e smaller machines, )hich co%ld ma+e still smaller ones, )or+ing in a to#&do)n "ashion "rom the macroscale to the microscale. At the end o" his tal+, he #ainted a vision o" moving individ%al atoms, #ointing o%t, 9!he #rinci#les o" #hysics, as "ar as 5 can see, do not s#ea+ against the #ossibility o" mane%vering things atom by atom.9 4e #ict%red ma+ing molec%les, #ointing clearly in the direction ta+en by the modern conce#t o" nanotechnology' 9(%t it is interesting that it )o%ld be, in #rinci#le, #ossible 25 thin+3 "or a #hysicist to synthesi.e any chemical s%bstance the chemist )rites do)n. Give the orders, and the #hysicist synthesi.es it. 4o)* P%t the atoms do)n )here the chemist says, and so yo% ma+e the s%bstance.9 Des#ite this clear sign#ost #ointing to a #otentially revol%tionary area, no one "illed the conce#t%al ga# bet)een miniat%re machines and chemical s%bstances. !here )as no clear conce#t o" ma+ing molec%lar machines able to b%ild more s%ch machines, no notion o" controllable molec%lar man%"act%ring. 0ith hindsight, one )onders )hy the ga# too+ so long to "ill. =eynman himsel" didn,t "ollo) it %#, saying that the ability to mane%ver atoms one by one 9)ill really be %seless9 since chemists )o%ld come %# )ith traditional, b%l+&#rocess )ays to ma+e ne) chemical s%bstances. =or a researcher )hose main interest )as #hysics, he had contrib%ted m%ch -%st by #lacing the sign#ost' it )as %# to others to move "or)ard. 5nstead, the idea o" molec%lar machines "or molec%lar man%"act%ring didn,t a##ear "or decades. =rom today,s vie)#oint, molec%lar nanotechnology loo+s more li+e an extension o" chemistry than li+e an extension o" miniat%ri.ation. A mechanical engineer, loo+ing at nanotechnology, might as+, 94o) can machines be made so small*9 A chemist, tho%gh, )o%ld as+, 94o) can molec%les be made so large*9 !he chemist has the better $%estion. anotechnology isn,t #rimarily abo%t miniat%ri.ing machines, b%t abo%t extending #recise control o" molec%lar str%ct%re to larger and larger scales. anotechnology is abo%t ma+ing 2#recise3 things big. "(CR1.C1P$C (ND "1-ECU-(R C1"P1NEN+. +echnology str%ts, beams, casins cables "asteners, gl%e solenoids, act%ators motors drive sha"ts bearings clam#s tools #rod%ction lines n%merical systems control Function transmit #ositions "orce, hold "olecular Exa #les cell )alls, microt%b%les collagen, sil+ intermolec%lar "orces m%scle actin, myosin "lagellar motor bacterial "lagella single bonds en.ymatic binding sites en.ymes, molec%les en.yme ribosomes genetic system reactive systems,

transmit tension connect #arts move things t%rn sha"ts transmit tor$%e s%##ort moving #arts hold )or+#ieces modi"y )or+#ieces control devices store and read #rograms

Ada#ted "rom K. E. Drexler, 3roceedings of the >ational !cademy of Sciences, Jol. 6; 219;13 ##. 7E67&6;. at%re gives the most obvio%s cl%es to ho) this can be done, and it )as the gro)ing scienti"ic literat%re on nat%ral molec%lar machines that led one o" the #resent a%thors 2Drexler3 to #ro#ose molec%lar nanotechnology o" the sort described here. A strategy to reach the goal )as #art o" the conce#t' (%ild increasingly com#lex molec%lar machinery "rom sim#ler #ieces, incl%ding molec%lar machines able to b%ild more molec%lar machines. And the motivation "or st%dying this, and #%blishing* Dargely the "ear o" living in a )orld that might r%sh into the ne) technology blindly, )ith %gly conse$%ences. !his conce#t and initial ex#loratory )or+ started in early 1966 at 85!B the "irst technical #%blication came in 19;1 in the 3roceedings of the >ational !cademy of Sciences. =or years, 85! remained the center o" thin+ing on nanotechnology and molec%lar man%"act%ring' in 19;7, the 85! anotechnology /t%dy Gro%# )as "ormedB it soon initiated an ann%al lect%re series )hich gre) into a t)o&day sym#osi%m by 199C. !he "irst boo+ on the to#ic, Engines of Creation, )as #%blished in 19;<. 5n 19;;, /tan"ord ?niversity became the "irst to o""er a co%rse in molec%lar nanotechnology, s#onsored by the De#artment o" Com#%ter /cience. 5n 19;9, this de#artment hosted the "irst ma-or con"erence on the s%b-ect, cos#onsored by the =oresight 5nstit%te and Global (%siness et)or+. 0ith the %#coming #%blication o" a technical boo+ describing nanotechnology:"rom molec%lar mechanical and $%ant%m& mechanical #rinci#les %# to assembly systems and #rod%cts:the s%b-ect )ill be easier to teach, and more college co%rses )ill become available. 5n #arallel )ith the develo#ment and s#read o" ideas abo%t nanotechnology and molec%lar man%"act%ring:ideas that remain #%re theory, ho)ever )ell gro%nded:scientists and engineers, )or+ing in laboratories to b%ild real tools and ca#abilities, have been #ioneering roads to nanotechnology. Aesearch has come a long )ay since the mid&19;Cs, as )e,ll see in the next cha#ter. (%t, as one might ex#ect )ith a com#lex ne) idea that, i" tr%e, disr%#ts a lot o" existing #lans and ex#ectations, some ob-ections have been heard. %It Won&t Work% Di"e might be m%ch sim#ler i" these ideas abo%t nanotechnology had some "atal "la). 5" only molec%les co%ldn,t be %sed to "orm machines, or the machines co%ldn,t be %sed to b%ild things, then )e might be able to +ee# right on going )ith o%r cr%de technologies' o%r medicine that doesn,t heal, o%r s#acecra"t that don,t o#en a ne) "rontier, o%r oil crises, o%r #oll%tion, and all the limits that +ee# %s "rom trading "amiliar #roblems "or strange ones. 8ost ne) ideas are )rong, es#ecially i" they #%r#ort to bring radical changes. 5t is not %nreasonable to ho#e that these are )rong. =rom years o" disc%ssions )ith chemists, #hysicists, and engineers, it is #ossible to com#ile )hat seems to be a com#lete list o" basic, critical $%estions abo%t )hether nanotechnology )ill )or+. !he $%estioners generally seem satis"ied )ith the ans)ers. %Will Ther'al (ibrations Mess Things )p?% !he earlier scenarios describe the nat%re o" thermal vibration and the #roblems it can ca%se. Designing nanomachines strong eno%gh and sti"" eno%gh to o#erate reliably des#ite thermal vibration is a gen%ine engineering challenge. (%t calc%lating the design re$%irements %s%ally re$%ires only sim#le textboo+ #rinci#les, and these re$%irements can be met "or everything described in this boo+. %Will *uantu' )ncertainty Mess Things )p?% O%ant%m mechanics says that #articles m%st be described as small smears o" #robability, not as #oints )ith #er"ectly de"ined locations. !his is, in "act, )hy the atoms and molec%les in the sim%lations "elt so so"t and smooth' their electrons are smeared o%t over the )hole vol%me o" the molec%le, and these electron clo%ds ta#er o"" smoothly and so"tly to)ard the edges. Atoms themselves are a bit

%ncertain in #osition, b%t this is a small e""ect com#ared to thermal vibrations. Again, sim#le textboo+ #rinci#les a##ly, and )ell&designed molec%lar machines )ill )or+. %Will Loose Molecules Mess Things )p?% Chemists )or+ )ith loose molec%les in li$%ids, and they nat%rally tend to #ict%re molec%les as "lying aro%nd loose. 5t is #ossible to b%ild nanomachines and molec%lar&man%"act%ring systems that )or+ in this sort o" environment 2biological mechanisms are an existence #roo"3, b%t in the long r%n, there )ill be no need to do so. !he /ilicon Jalley =aire sim%lation gives the right idea' /ystems can be b%ilt )ith no loose molec%les, ma+ing nanomechanical design m%ch easier. 5" no molec%les are loose inside a machine, then loose molec%les can,t ca%se #roblems there. %Will +he'ical Instability Mess Things )p?% Chemists #er"orm chemical reactions, )hich means that they tend to )or+ )ith reactive, %nstable molec%les. 8any molec%les, tho%gh, can sit aro%nd in #eace )ith their neighbors "or millions o" years, as is +no)n both "rom chemical theory and "rom the st%dy o" molec%les tra##ed in ancient roc+. anomachines can be b%ilt "rom the more stable sorts o" str%ct%re. !he only necessary exce#tion is in molec%lar assembly, )here molec%les m%st react, b%t even here the reactive molec%les need not be t%rned loose. !hey can be a##lied -%st )hen and )here they are needed in the constr%ction #rocess. %Is It Too +o'plex, Like !iology?% An easy )ay to ex#lain molec%lar man%"act%ring is to say that it is some)hat li+e molec%lar biology' small, com#lex molec%lar devices )or+ing together to b%ild things and do vario%s -obs. !he next #oint, ho)ever, is that molec%lar man%"act%ring is di""erent in every detail and di""erent in overall str%ct%re' com#are the nanocom#%ters, assembler arms, and conveyor belts described above to the shaggy, seething living cell described in the last cha#ter. (iology is com#lex in a strange and )onder"%l )ay. Engineers need not even %nderstand li"e, m%ch less d%#licate it, merely to b%ild a molec%lar&scale "actory. 95 don,t see anything )rong )ith it. (%t it,s so interdisci#linary:co%ldn,t there be a #roblem 5 can,t see*9 anotechnology is basically a shotg%n marriage o" chemistry and mechanical engineering, )ith #hysics 2as al)ays3 #residing. !his ma+es a com#lete eval%ation di""ic%lt "or most o" today,s s#ecialists, beca%se each o" these "ields is ta%ght se#arately and %s%ally #racticed se#arately. 8any s#ecialists, having highly "oc%sed bac+gro%nds, "ind themselves %ne$%i##ed to eval%ate #ro#osals that overla# other disci#lines. 0hen as+ed to do so, they )ill state "eelings o" discom"ort, beca%se altho%gh they can,t identi"y any #artic%lar #roblems, they can,t veri"y the entire conce#t as so%nd. /cientists and engineers )ith m%ltidisci#linary bac+gro%nds, or )ith access to s#ecialists "rom other "ields, can eval%ate the idea "rom all sides. 0e,ll meet some o" these in Cha#ter G. It Will Work0hen #hysicists, chemists, biologists, engineers, and com#%ter scientists eval%ate those #arts o" nanotechnology that "all )ithin their disci#lines, they agree' At no #oint )o%ld it re$%ire ne) #rinci#les or violate a #hysical la). !here may "or many years be some ex#erts o""ering negative o""& the&c%"" o#inions, b%t the consens%s among those )ho have ta+en the time to examine the "acts is clear. 8olec%lar nanotechnology "alls entirely )ithin the realm o" the #ossible. %It Would Work, but Isn&t It a !ad Idea to I'ple'ent It?% 5" this means, 9!hese ne) technologies could easily do "ar more harm than good,9 then there is no arg%ment, beca%se no one seems to disagree.

5" this means, 9!hese ne) technologies will certainly do more harm than good,9 then )e disagree' m%ch good is #ossible, m%ch harm is avoidable, and it )o%ld be too bold to declare any s%ch o%tcome 9certain.9 5" this means, 9!hese ne) technologies sho%ld be avoided,9 then )e re#ly, 94o), )ith )hat ris+s, and )ith )hat conse$%ences*9 Cha#ters 1E and 1F concl%de that it is sa"er to ride the beast than to hang on to its tail )hile others s)arm aboard. 5" this means, 9Don,t thin+ abo%t it or describe it,9 then )e re#ly, 94o) else are )e to %nderstand it or ma+e decisions*9 5ncreased h%man abilities have ro%tinely been %sed to damage the environment and to ma+e )ar. Even the cr%de technologies o" the t)entieth cent%ry have ta+en %s to the brin+. 5t is nat%ral to "eel exhilarated 2or terri"ied3 by a #ros#ect that #romises 2or threatens3 to extend h%man abilities beyond most #ast dreams 2or nightmares3. 5t is better to "eel both, to meld and moderate these "eelings, and to set o%t on a co%rse o" action that ma+es bad o%tcomes less li+ely. 0e,re convinced that the best co%rse is to "oc%s on the #otential good )hile )arning o" the #otential evils. %!ut Isn&t It )nlikely to Arri.e Within $ur Lifeti'es?% !hose in "ailing health may be -%sti"ied in saying thisB others are ex#ressing an o#inion that may )ell be )rong. 5t )o%ld be o#timistic to ass%me that bene"its are aro%nd the corner, and #r%dent to ass%me that they )ill be long delayed. Conversely, it )o%ld be o#timistic to ass%me that dangers )ill be long delayed, and #r%dent to ass%me that they )ill arrive #rom#tly. 0hatever good or ill may come o" #ost&brea+thro%gh ca#abilities, the t%rb%lence o" the coming transition )ill #resent a real danger. 0hile )e invite readers to ta+e a 90hat i"*9 stance to)ard these technologies, it )o%ld be im#r%dent to listen to the l%lling so%nd o" the #romise 9not in o%r li"etimes.9 Even today, #%blic acce#tance o" man,s coming ex#loration o" s#ace is slo). 5t is considered an event o%r children may ex#erience, b%t certainly not one that )e shall see. E. (erga%st and 0. (eller =rom the "ore)ord to Satellite?, )ritten H%ly 1976 S utni# orbits Earth, @ctober 1976 =oot#rints on 8oon, H%ly 19<9 Pers#ective 0e are still many years a)ay "rom nanotechnology based on molec%lar man%"act%ring. 5t might even seem that s%ch vast, slo) giants as o%rselves co%ld never ma+e s%ch small, $%ic+ machines. !he "ollo)ing sections )ill describe ho) advances in science and technology are leading to)ard these abilities. 0e,ll try to get some "eel "or the road ahead, "or its length, and "or ho) "ast )e,re moving. 0e are already s%r#risingly close to develo#ing a cr%de molec%lar man%"act%ring technology, and getting visibly closer every )ee+. !he "irst, cr%de technology )ill enable the constr%ction o" molec%lar machines that can be %sed to b%ild better molec%lar machines, climbing a ladder o" ca#abilities that leads to general&#%r#ose molec%lar assemblers as good or better than those described here. !he o##ort%nities then )ill be enormo%s. 5" )e haven,t #re#ared, the dangers, too, )ill be enormo%s. 0hether )e,re ready or not, the res%lting changes )ill be disr%#tive, s)ee#ing ind%stries aside, %#ending military strategies, and trans"orming o%r )ays o" li"e.

Cha#ter 7 Paths, Pioneers, and Progress A basic $%estion abo%t nanotechnology is, 90hen )ill it be achieved*9 !he ans)er is sim#le' o one +no)s. 4o) molec%lar machines )ill behave is a matter "or calc%lation, b%t ho) long it )ill ta+e %s to develo# them is a se#arate iss%e. !echnology timetables can,t be calc%lated "rom the la)s o" nat%re, they can only be g%essed at. 5n this cha#ter, )e examine di""erent #aths to nanotechnology, hear )hat some o" the #ioneers have to say, and describe the #rogress already made. !his )ill not ans)er o%r basic $%estion, b%t it )ill ed%cate o%r g%esses. 8olec%lar nanotechnology co%ld be develo#ed in any o" several basically di""erent )ays. Each o" these basic alternatives itsel" incl%des "%rther alternatives. Aesearchers )ill be as+ing, 94o) can )e ma+e the "astest #rogress*9 !o %nderstand the ans)ers they may come to, )e need to as+ the same $%estion here, ado#ting 2"or the moment3 a g%ng&ho, let,s&go, ho)&do&)e&get&the&-ob&done* attit%de. 0e give some o" the researchers, ans)ers in their o)n )ords. !ill $t Ever 2e (chieved8 Di+e 90hen )ill it be achieved*9, this is a basic $%estion )ith an ans)er beyond calc%lation. 4ere, tho%gh, the ans)er seems "airly clear. !hro%gho%t history, #eo#le have )or+ed to achieve better control o" matter, to convince atoms to do )hat )e )ant them to do. !his has gone on since be"ore #eo#le learned that atoms exist, and has accelerated ever since. Altho%gh di""erent ind%stries %se di""erent materials and di""erent tools and methods, the basic aim is al)ays the same. !hey see+ to ma+e better things, and ma+e them more consistently, and that means better control o" the str%ct%re o" matter. =rom this #ers#ective, nanotechnology is -%st the next, nat%ral ste# in a #rogression that has been %nder )ay "or millennia. Consider the com#act discs no) re#lacing older stereo records' both the old and the ne) technologies stam# #atterns into #lastic, b%t "or CDs, the b%m#s on the stam#ing s%r"ace are only abo%t 1FC by <CC nanometers in si.e, vers%s 1CC,CCC nanometers or so "or the )idth o" the groove on an old&style record. @r loo+ at a #ersonal com#%ter. Hohn =oster, a #hysicist at 5(8,s Almaden Aesearch Center, #oints to a hard dis+ and says that 9inside that box are a b%nch o" )hirring dis+s, and every one o" those dis+s has got a metal layer )here the in"ormation is stored. !he last thing on to# o" the metal layer is a monolayer that,s the l%bricant bet)een the dis+ and the head that "lies over it. !he monolayer is not "i"teen angstroms P17 angstroms Q 1.7 nanometersR and it,s not three, beca%se "i"teen )on,t )or+ and neither )ill three. /o it has to be ten #l%s or min%s a "e) angstroms. !his is de"initely )or+ing in the nanometer regime. 0e,re at that level' 0e shi# it every day and ma+e money on it every day.9 !he transistors on com#%ter chi#s are heading do)n in si.e on an ex#onential c%rve. =oster,s colleag%e at 5(8, Patric+ Arnett, ex#ects the trend to contin%e' 95" yo% stay on that c%rve, then yo% end %# at the atomic scale at ECEC or so. !hat,s the nat%re o" technology no). >o% ex#ect to "ollo) that c%rve as "ar as yo% can go.9 !he trend is clear, and at least some o" the res%lts can be "oreseen, b%t the #recise #ath and timetable "or the develo#ment o" nanotechnology is %n#redictable. !his %n#redictability goes to the heart o" im#ortant $%estions' 94o) )ill this technology be develo#ed* 0ho )ill do it* 0here* 0hen* 5n ten years* =i"ty* A h%ndred* 0ill this ha##en in my li"etime*9 !he ans)ers )ill de#end on )hat #eo#le do )ith their time and reso%rces, )hich in t%rn )ill de#end on )hat goals they thin+ are most #romising. 4%man attit%des, %nderstanding, and goals )ill ma+e all the di""erence. !hat Decisions "ost (**ect the Rate o* (dvance8 Decisions abo%t research directions are central. Aesearchers are already #o%ring e""ort into chemical synthesis, molec%lar engineering, and related "ields. !he same amo%nt o" e""ort co%ld #rod%ce more im#ressive res%lts in molec%lar nanotechnology i" a "raction o" it )ere di""erently directed. !he research "%ndersIcor#orate exec%tives, and decision ma+ers in science "%nding

agencies li+e the ational /cience =o%ndation in the ?nited /tates and Ha#an,s 8inistry o" 5nternational !rade and 5nd%stryIall have a large in"l%ence on research directions, b%t so do the researchers )or+ing in the labs. !hey s%bmit #ro#osals to #otential "%nders 2and o"ten s#end time on #ersonally chosen #ro-ects, regardless o" "%nding3, so their o#inions also sha#e )hat ha##ens. 0here #%blic money is involved, #oliticians, im#ressions o" #%blic o#inion can have a h%ge in"l%ence, and #%blic o#inion de#ends on )hat all o" %s thin+ and say.. /till, researchers #lay a central role. !hey tend to )or+ on )hat they thin+ is interesting, )hich de#ends on )hat they thin+ is #ossible, )hich de#ends on the tools they have orIamong the most creative researchersIon the tools they can see ho) to ma+e. @%r tools sha#e ho) )e thin+' as the saying goes, )hen all yo% have is a hammer, everything loo+s li+e a nail. e) tools enco%rage ne) tho%ghts and enable ne) achievements, and decisions abo%t tool develo#ment )ill #ace advances in nanotechnology. !o %nderstand the challenges ahead, )e need to ta+e a loo+ at ideas abo%t the tools that )ill be needed. !hy (re +ools .o $ #ortant8 !hro%gho%t history, limited tools have limited achievement. Deonardo da Jinci,s sixteenth cent%ry chain drives and ball bearings )ere theoretically )or+able, yet never )or+ed in their inventor,s li"etime. Charles (abbage,s nineteenth cent%ry mechanical com#%ter s%""ered the same "ate. !he #roblem* (oth inventors needed #recisely machined #arts that 2tho%gh readily available today3 )ere beyond the man%"act%ring technology o" their times. Physicist David 8iller reco%nts ho) a so#histicated integrated circ%it design #ro-ect at !A0 hit similar limits in the early 19;Cs' 95t all came do)n to )hether a German com#any co%ld cool their glass lenses slo)ly eno%gh to give %s the acc%racy )e needed. !hey co%ldn,t.9 5n the molec%lar )orld, tool develo#ment again #aces #rogress, and ne) tools can bring breathta+ing advances. 8ar+ Pearson, director o" molec%lar biology "or D% Pont, has observed this in action' 90hen 5 )as a grad%ate st%dent bac+ in the 197Cs, it )as a m%ltiyear #roblem to determine the molec%lar str%ct%re o" a single #rotein. 0e %sed to say, ,one #rotein, one career., >et no) the time has shr%n+ "rom a career to a decade to a yearIand in o#timal cases to a "e) months.9 Protein str%ct%res can be ma##ed atom by atom by st%dying S&ray re"lections "rom layers in #rotein crystals. Pearson observes that 9Characteri.ing a #rotein )as a career&long endeavor in #art beca%se it )as so di""ic%lt to get crystals, and -%st getting the material )as a big constraint. 0ith ne) technologies, )e can get o%r hands on the material no)Ithat may so%nd m%ndane, b%t it,s a great advance. !o the #eo#le in the "ield, it ma+es all the di""erence in the )orld.9 5m#roved tools "or ma+ing and st%dying #roteins are o" s#ecial im#ortance beca%se #roteins are #romising b%ilding bloc+s "or "irst&generation molec%lar machines. 2ut $sn)t .cience (bout Discoveries, Not +ools8 obel Pri.es are more o"ten a)arded "or discoveries than "or the tools 2incl%ding instr%ments and techni$%es3 that made them #ossible. 5" the goal is to s#%r scienti"ic #rogress, this is a shame. !his #attern o" re)ard extends thro%gho%t science, leading to a chronic %nderinvestment in develo#ing ne) tools. Phili# Abelson, an editor o" the -o%rnal Science, #oints o%t that the ?nited /tates s%""ers "rom 9a lac+ o" s%##ort "or develo#ment o" ne) instr%mentation. At one time, )e had a virt%al mono#oly in #ioneering advances in instr%mentation. o) #ractically no "ederal "%nds are available to %niversities "or the #%r#ose.9 5t,s easier and less ris+y to s$%ee.e one more #iece o" data o%t o" an existing tool than to #ioneer the develo#ment o" a ne) one, and it ta+es less imagination. (%t ne) tools emerge any)ay, o"ten "rom so%rces in other "ields. !he st%dy o" #rotein crystals, "or exam#le, can bene"it "rom ne) S&ray so%rces develo#ed by #hysicists, and techni$%es "rom chemistry can hel# ma+e ne) #roteins. (eca%se they can,t antici#ate tools res%lting "rom innovations in other "ields, scientists and engineers are o"ten too #essimistic abo%t )hat can be achieved in their o)n "ields. anotechnology )ill -oin several "ields, and yield tools %se"%l in many others. 0e sho%ld ex#ect s%r#rising res%lts.

!hat +ools Do Researchers Use to 2uild . all Devices8 !oday,s tools "or ma+ing small&scale str%ct%res are o" t)o +inds' molec%lar&#rocessing tools and b%l+&#rocessing tools. =or decades, chemists and molec%lar biologists have been %sing better and better molec%lar&#rocessing tools to ma+e and mani#%late #recise, molec%lar str%ct%res. !hese tools are o" obvio%s %se. Physicists, as )e )ill see, have recently develo#ed tools that can also mani#%late molec%les. Combined )ith techni$%es "rom chemistry and molec%lar biology, these #hysicist,s tools #romise great advances. 8icrotechnologists have a##lied chi#&ma+ing techni$%es to the man%"act%re o" microsco#ic machines. !hese technologiesIthe main a##roach to miniat%ri.ation in recent decadesIcan #lay at most a s%##orting role in the develo#ment o" nanotechnology. Des#ite a##earances, it seems that microtechnology cannot be re"ined into nanotechnology. 2ut $sn)t Nanotechnology 9ust 4ery . all "icrotechnology8 =or many years, it )as conventional to ass%me that the road to very small devices led thro%gh smaller and smaller devices' a to#&do)n #ath. @n this #ath, #rogress is meas%red by miniat%ri.ation' 4o) small a transistor can )e b%ild* 4o) small a motor* 4o) thin a line can )e dra) on the s%r"ace o" a crystal* 8iniat%ri.ation "oc%ses on scale and has #aid o"" )ell, s#a)ning ind%stries ranging "rom )atchma+ing to microelectronics. Aesearchers at A!T! (ell Dabs, the ?niversity o" Cali"ornia at (er+eley, and other laboratories in the ?nited /tates have %sed micromachining 2based on microelectronic technologies3 to ma+e tiny gears and even electric motors. 8icromachining is also being #%rs%ed s%ccess"%lly in Ha#an and Germany. !hese microgears and micromotors are, ho)ever, enormo%s by nanotechnological standards' a ty#ical device is meas%red in tens o" micrometers, billions o" times the vol%me o" com#arable nanogears and nanomotors. 25n o%r sim%lated molec%lar )orld, ten microns is the si.e o" a small to)n.3 5n si.e, con"%sing microtechnology )ith molec%lar nanotechnology is li+e con"%sing an ele#hant )ith a ladyb%g. !he di""erences r%n dee#er, tho%gh. 8icrotechnology d%m#s atoms on s%r"aces and digs them a)ay again in b%l+, )ith no regard "or )hich atom goes )here. 5ts methods are inherently cr%de. 8olec%lar nanotechnology, in contrast, #ositions each atom )ith care. As (ill DeGrado, a #rotein chemist at D% Pont, says, 9!he essence o" nanotechnology is that #eo#le have )or+ed "or years ma+ing things smaller and smaller %ntil )e,re a##roaching molec%lar dimensions. At that #oint, one can,t ma+e smaller things exce#t by starting )ith molec%les and b%ilding them %# into assemblies.9 !he di""erence is basic' 5n microtechnology, the challenge is to b%ild smallerB in nanotechnology, the challenge is to b%ild biggerI)e can already ma+e small molec%les. 2A lang%age )arning' in recent years, nanotechnology has indeed been %sed to mean 9very small microtechnology9B "or this %sage, the ans)er to the above $%estion is yes, by de"inition. !his %se o" a ne) )ord "or a mere extension o" an old technology )ill #rod%ce considerable con"%sion, #artic%larly in light o" the )ides#read %se o" nanotechnology in the sense "o%nd here. anolithogra#hy, nanoelectronics, nanocom#osites, nano"abrication' not all that is nano& is molec%lar, or very relevant to the concerns raised in this boo+. !he terms molecular nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing are more a)+)ard b%t avoid this con"%sion.3 !ill "icrotechnology -ead to Nanotechnology8 Can b%lldo.ers can be %sed to ma+e )rist)atches* At most, they can hel# to b%ild "actories in )hich )atches are made. !ho%gh there co%ld be s%r#rises, the relevance o" microtechnology to molec%lar nanotechnology seems similar. 5nstead, a bottom&%# a##roach is needed to accom#lish engineering goals on the molec%lar scale.

!hat (re the "ain +ools Used *or "olecular Engineering8 Almost by de"inition, the #ath to molec%lar nanotechnology m%st lead thro%gh molec%lar engineering. 0or+ing in di""erent disci#lines, driven by di""erent goals, researchers are ma+ing #rogress in this "ield. Chemists are develo#ing techni$%es able to b%ild #recise molec%lar str%ct%res o" sorts never be"ore seen. (iochemists are learning to b%ild str%ct%res o" "amiliar +inds, s%ch as #roteins, to ma+e ne) molec%lar ob-ects. 5n a visible sense, most o" the tools %sed by chemists and biochemists are rather %nim#ressive. !hey )or+ on co%nterto#s cl%ttered )ith dishes, bottles, t%bes, and the li+e, mixing, stirring, heating, and #o%ring li$%idsIin biochemistry, the li$%id is %s%ally )ater )ith a trace o" material dissolved in it. Periodically, a bit o" li$%id is #%t into a larger machine and a stri# o" #a#er comes o%t )ith a gra#h #rinted on it. As one might g%ess "rom this descri#tion, research in the molec%lar sciences is %s%ally m%ch less ex#ensive than research in high&energy #hysics 2)ith its m%ltibillion&dollar #article accelerators3 or research in s#ace 2)ith its m%ltibillion&dollar s#acecra"t3. Chemistry has been called 9small science,9 and not beca%se o" the si.e o" the molec%les. Chemists and biochemists advance their "ield chie"ly by develo#ing ne) molec%les that can serve as tools, hel#ing to b%ild or st%dy other molec%les. =%rther advances come "rom ne) instr%mentation, ne) )ays to examine molec%les and determine their str%ct%res and behaviors. >et more advances come "rom ne) so"t)are tools, ne) com#%ter&based techni$%es "or #redicting ho) a molec%le )ith a #artic%lar str%ct%re )ill behave. 8any o" these so"t)are tools let researchers #eer thro%gh a screen into sim%lated molec%lar )orlds m%ch li+e those to%red in the last t)o cha#ters. @" these "ields, it is biomolec%lar science that is most obvio%sly develo#ing tools that can b%ild nanotechnology, beca%se biomolec%les already "orm molec%lar machines, incl%ding devices resembling cr%de assemblers. !his #ath is easiest to #ict%re, and can s%rely )or+, yet there is no g%arantee that it )ill be "astest' research gro%#s "ollo)ing another #ath may )ell )in. Each o" these #aths is being #%rs%ed )orld)ide, and on each, #rogress is accelerating. Physicists have recently contrib%ted ne) tools o" great #romise "or molec%lar engineering. !hese are the roximal robes, incl%ding the scanning tunneling microsco e 2/!83 and the atomic force microsco e 2A=83. A #roximal&#robe device #laces a shar# ti# in #roximity to a s%r"ace and %ses it to #robe 2and sometimes modi"y3 the s%r"ace and any molec%les that may be st%c+ to it.

2U=ig%re G' ill%stration o" /!8 and A=83 =ig%re G' /!81A=8 )he scanning tunneling microsco e .S)%, on the left0 images surfaces well enough to show individual atoms, sensing surface contours by monitoring the current 9um ing the ga between ti and surface. )he atomic force microsco e .!F%, on the right0 senses surface contours by mechanical contact, drawing a ti over the surface and o tically sensing its motion as it asses over single+atom bum s. :ow Does an .+" !or'8 An /!8 brings a shar#, electrically cond%cting needle %# to an electrically&cond%cting s%r"ace, almost to%ching it. !he needle and s%r"ace are electrically connected 2see the le"t&hand side o" =ig%re G3, so that a c%rrent )ill "lo) i" they to%ch, li+e closing a s)itch. (%t at -%st )hat #oint do so"t, "%..y atoms 9to%ch9* 5t t%rns o%t that a detectable c%rrent "lo)s )hen -%st t)o atoms are in ten%o%s contact I"%..y "ringes barely overla##ingIone on the s%r"ace and one on the ti# o" the needle. (y delicately mane%vering the needle aro%nd over the s%r"ace, +ee#ing the c%rrent "lo)ing at a tiny, constant rate, the /!8 can ma# sha#e o" the s%r"ace )ith great #recision. 5ndeed, to +ee# the c%rrent constant, the needle has to go %# and do)n as it #asses over individ%al atoms. !he /!8 )as invented by Gerd (innig and 4einrich Aohrer, research #hysicists st%dying s%r"ace #henomena at 5(8,s research labs in V%rich, /)it.erland. A"ter )or+ing thro%gh the 196Cs, Aohrer and (innig s%bmitted their "irst #atent disclos%re on an /!8 in mid&1969. 5n 19;E, they #rod%ced images o" a silicon s%r"ace, sho)ing individ%al atoms. 5ronically, the im#ortance o" their )or+ )as not immediately recogni.ed' Aohrer and (innig,s "irst scienti"ic #a#er on the ne) tool )as re-ected "or #%blication on the gro%nds that it )as 9not interesting eno%gh.9 !oday, /!8 con"erences dra) interested researchers by the h%ndreds "rom aro%nd the )orld. 5n 19;<I$%ite #rom#tly as these things goI(innig and Aohrer )ere a)arded a obel Pri.e.

!he /)edish Academy ex#lained its reasoning' 9!he scanning t%nneling microsco#e is com#letely ne) and )e have so "ar seen only the beginning o" its develo#ment. 5t is, ho)ever, clear that entirely ne) "ields are o#ening %# "or the st%dy o" matter.9 /!8s are no longer exotic' Digital 5nstr%ments o" /anta (arbara, Cali"ornia, sells its system 2the anosco#eL3 by mail )ith an atomic&resol%tion&or& yo%r&money&bac+ g%arantee. 0ithin three years o" their commercial introd%ction, h%ndreds o" /!8s had been #%rchased. :ow Does an (F" !or'8 !he related atomic "orce microsco#e 2on the right side o" =ig%re G3 is even sim#ler in conce#t' A shar# #robe is dragged over the s%r"ace, #ressed do)n gently by a straight s#ring. !he instr%ment senses motions in the s#ring 2%s%ally o#tically3, and the s#ring moves %# and do)n )henever the ti# is dragged over an atom on the s%r"ace. !he ti# 9"eels9 the s%r"ace -%st li+e a "ingerti# in the sim%lated molec%lar )orld. !he A=8 )as invented by (innig, O%ate, and Gerber at /tan"ord ?niversity and 5(8 /an Hose in 19;7. A"ter the s%ccess o" the /!8, the im#ortance o" the A=8 )as immediately recogni.ed. Among other advantages, it )or+s )ith noncond%cting materials. !he next cha#ter )ill describe ho) A=8&based devices might be %sed as molec%lar mani#%lators in develo#ing molec%lar nanotechnology. As this is )ritten, A=8s have -%st become commercially available. 2 ote that that A=8s and /!8s are not $%ite as easy to %se as these descri#tions might s%ggest. =or exam#le, a bad ti# or a bad s%r"ace can #revent atomic resol%tion, and #o%nding on the table is not recommended )hen s%ch sensitive instr%ments are in o#eration. =%rther, scientists o"ten have tro%ble deciding -%st )hat they,re seeing, even )hen they get a good image. Can Proxi al Probes "ove (to s8 !o those thin+ing in terms o" nanotechnology, /!8s immediately loo+ed #romising not only "or seeing atoms and molec%les b%t "or mani#%lating them. !his idea soon became )ides#read among #hysicists. As Calvin O%ate stated in 3hysics )oday in 19;<, 9/ome o" %s believe that the scanning t%nneling microsco#e )ill evolve . . . that one day PitR )ill be %sed to )rite and read #atterns o" molec%lar si.e.9 !his a##roach )as s%ggested as an #ath to molec%lar nanotechnology in Engines of Creation, again in 19;<. (y no), )hole stac+s o" scienti"ic #a#ers doc%ment the %se o" /!8 and A=8 ti#s to scratch, melt, erode, indent, and other)ise modi"y s%r"aces on a nanometer scale. !hese o#erations move atoms aro%nd, b%t )ith little control. !hey amo%nt to b%l+ o#erations on a tiny scaleI one "ine scratch a "e) do.en atoms )ide, instead o" the billions that res%lt "rom conventional #olishing o#erations. Can Proxi al Probes "ove (to s "ore Precisely8 5n 19;6, A. /. (ec+er, H. A. Golovchen+o, and (. /. /)art.entr%ber at A!T! (ell Daboratories anno%nced that they had %sed an /!8 to de#osit small blobs on a germani%m s%r"ace. Each blob )as tho%ght to consist o" one or a "e) germani%m atoms. /hortly therea"ter, 5(8 Almaden researchers Hohn =oster, Hane =rommer, and Patric+ Arnett achieved a milestone in /!8&based molec%lar mani#%lation. @" this team, =oster and Arnett attended the =irst =oresight Con"erence on anotechnology, )here they told %s the motivations behind their )or+. =oster came to 5(8 "rom /tan"ord ?niversity, )here he had com#leted a doctorate in #hysics and ta%ght at grad%ate school. !he /!8 )or+ )as one o" his "irst #ro-ects in the cor#orate )orld. 4e describes his colleag%e Arnett as a "ormer 9semicond%ctor -oc+9 involved in chi# creation at 5(8,s (%rlington and >or+to)n locations. (esides his doctorate in #hysics, Arnett bro%ght mechanical& engineering training to the e""ort. Arnett ex#lains )hat they )ere trying to do' 90e )anted to see i" yo% co%ld do something on an atomic scale, to create a mechanism "or storing in"ormation and getting it bac+ reliably.9 !he ans)er )as yes. 5n Han%ary 19;;, the -o%rnal >ature carried their letter re#orting s%ccess in #inning an organic molec%le to a #artic%lar location on a s%r"ace, %sing an /!8 to "orm a chemical bond by

a##lying an electrical #%lse thro%gh the ti#. !hey "o%nd that having created and sensed the "eat%re, they co%ld go bac+ and %se another voltage #%lse "rom the ti# to change the "eat%re again' enlarging it, #artly erasing it, or com#letely removing it. 5(8 $%ic+ly sa) a commercial %se, as ex#lained by Pa%l 8. 4orn, acting director o" #hysical sciences at the !homas H. 0atson Aesearch Center' 9!his means yo% can create a storage element the si.e o" an atom. ?ltimately, the ability to do that co%ld lead to storage that is ten million times more dense than anything )e have today.9 A broader vision )as given by another researcher, H. (. Pethica, in the iss%e o" >ature in )hich the )or+ a##eared' 9!he #artial eras%re re#orted by =oster et al. im#lies that molec%les may have #ieces deliberately removed, and in #rinci#le be atomically ,edited,, thereby demonstrating one o" the ideals o" nanotechnology.9 Can Proxi al Probes "ove (to s !ith Co #lete Precision8 =oster,s gro%# s%cceeded in #inning single molec%les to a s%r"ace, b%t they co%ldn,t control the res%ltsIthe #osition and orientationI#recisely. 5n A#ril 199C, ho)ever, another gro%# at the same laboratory carried the mani#%lation o" atoms even "%rther, bringing a s#lash o" #%blicity. Admittedly, the story m%st have been hard to resist' it )as accom#anied by an /!8 #ict%re o" the name 5(8,9 s#elled o%t )ith thirty&"ive #recisely #laced atoms 2=ig%re 73. !he #recision here is com#lete, li+e the #recision o" molec%lar assembly' each atom sits in a dim#le on the s%r"ace o" a nic+el crystalB it can rest either in one dim#le or in another, b%t never some)here bet)een. =ig%re 7' 0orld,s /mallest Dogo&F7 Senon Atoms

Donald Eigler, the lead a%thor on the >ature #a#er describing this )or+, sees clearly )here all this is leading' 9=or decades, the electronics ind%stry has been "acing the challenge o" ho) to b%ild smaller and smaller str%ct%res. =or those o" %s )ho )ill no) be %sing individ%al atoms as b%ilding bloc+s, the challenge )ill be ho) to b%ild %# str%ct%res atom by atom.9 :ow Far Can Proxi al Probes +a'e Us8 Proximal #robes have advantages as a tool "or develo#ing nanotechnology, b%t also )ea+nesses. !oday, their )or+ing ti#s are ro%gh and irreg%lar, ty#ically even ro%gher than sho)n in =ig%re 7. !o ma+e stable bonds "orm, Hohn =oster,s gro%# %sed a #%lse o" electricity, b%t the res%lts #roved hard to control. !he 95(89 s#elled o%t by Donald Eigler,s gro%# )as #recise, b%t stable only at tem#erat%res near absol%te .eroIs%ch #atterns vanish at room tem#erat%re beca%se they are not based on stable chemical bonds. (%ilding str%ct%res that are both stable and #recise is still a challenge. !o "orm stable bonds in #recise #atterns is the next big challenge. Hohn =oster says, 90e,re ex#loring a conce#t )hich )e call ,molec%lar herding,, %sing the /!8 to ,herd, molec%les the )ay my /hetland shee# dog )o%ld herd shee# . . . @%r %ltimate goal )ith molec%lar herding is to ma+e one #artic%lar molec%le move to another #artic%lar one, and then essentially "orce them together. 5" yo% co%ld #%t t)o molec%les that might be small #arts o" a nanomachine on the s%r"ace, then this +ind o" herding )o%ld allo) yo% to ha%l one o" them %# to the other. 5nstead o" re$%iring random motion o" a li$%id and s#eci"ic chemical loc+&and&+ey interactions to give yo% exactly )hat yo% )ant in bringing t)o molec%les together Pas in chemical and biochemical

a##roachesR, yo% co%ld drive that reaction on a local level )ith the /!8. >o% co%ld %se the /!8 to #%t things )here yo% )ant them to be.9 !he next cha#ter )ill disc%ss additional ideas "or %sing #roximal #robes in early nanotechnology. Proximal&#robe instr%ments may be a big hel# in b%ilding the "irst generation o" nanomachines, b%t they have a basic limit' Each instr%ment is h%ge on a molec%lar scale, and each co%ld bond only one molec%lar #iece at a time. !o ma+e anything largeIsay, large eno%gh to see )ith the na+ed eye I)o%ld ta+e an abs%rdly long time. A device o" this sort co%ld add one #iece #er second, b%t even a #inhead contains more atoms than the n%mber o" seconds since the "ormation o" Earth. (%ilding a Poc+et Dibrary this )ay )o%ld be a long&term #ro-ect. :ow Can .uch .low .yste s Ever 2uild (nything 2ig8 Aabbits and dandelions contain str%ct%res #%t together one molec%lar #iece at a time, yet they gro) and re#rod%ce $%ic+ly. 4o)* !hey b%ild in #arallel, )ith many billions o" molec%lar machines )or+ing at once. !o gain the bene"its o" s%ch enormo%s #arallelism, researchers can either 13 %se #roximal #robes to b%ild a better, next&generation technology, or E3 %se a di""erent a##roach "rom the start. !he techni$%es o" chemistry and biomolec%lar engineering already have enormo%s #arallelism, and already b%ild #recise molec%lar str%ct%res. !heir methods, ho)ever, are less direct than the still hy#othetical #roximal #robe&based molec%le&#ositioners. !hey %se molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s sha#ed to "it together s#ontaneo%sly, in a #rocess o" self+assembly. David (iegelsen, a #hysicist )ho )or+s )ith /!8s at the Serox Palo Alto Aesearch Center, #%t it this )ay at the nanotechnology con"erence' 9Clearly, assembly %sing /!8s and other variants )ill have to be tried. (%t biological systems are an existence #roo" that assembly and sel"&assembly can be done. 5 don,t see )hy one sho%ld try to deviate "rom something that already exists. !hat (re the "ain (dvantages o* "olecular 2uilding 2loc's8 A h%ge technology base "or molec%lar constr%ction already exists. !ools originally develo#ed by biochemists and biotechnologists to deal )ith molec%lar machines "o%nd in nat%re can be redirected to ma+e ne) molec%lar machines. !he ex#ertise b%ilt %# by chemists in more than a cent%ry o" steady #rogress )ill be cr%cial in molec%lar design and constr%ction. (oth disci#lines ro%tinely handle molec%les by the billions and get them to "orm #atterns by sel"&assembly. (iochemists, in #artic%lar, can begin by co#ying designs "rom nat%re. 8olec%lar b%ilding&bloc+ strategies co%ld )or+ together )ith #roximal #robe strategies, or co%ld re#lace them, -%m#ing directly to the constr%ction o" large n%mbers o" molec%lar machines. Either )ay, #rotein molec%les are li+ely to #lay a central role, as they do in nat%re. :ow Can Protein Engineering 2uild "olecular "achines8 Proteins can sel" assemble into )or+ing molec%lar machines, ob-ects that do something, s%ch as c%tting and s#licing other molec%les or ma+ing m%scles contract. !hey also -oin )ith other molec%les to "orm h%ge assemblies li+e the ribosome 2abo%t the si.e o" a )ashing machine, in o%r sim%lation vie)3. AibosomesI#rogrammable machines "or man%"act%ring #roteinsIare nat%re,s closest a##roach to a molec%lar assembler. !he genetic&engineering ind%stry is chie"ly in the b%siness o" re#rogramming nat%ral nanomachines, the ribosomes, to ma+e ne) #roteins or to ma+e "amiliar #roteins more chea#ly. Designing ne) #roteins is termed rotein engineering. /ince biomolec%les already "orm s%ch com#lex devices, it,s easy to see that advanced #rotein engineering co%ld be %sed to b%ild "irst&generation nanomachines. $* !e Can "a'e Proteins, !hy (ren)t !e 2uilding Fancy "olecular "achines8 8a+ing #roteins is easier than designing them. Protein chemists began by st%dying #roteins

"o%nd in nat%re, b%t have only recently moved on to the #roblem o" engineering ne) ones. !hese are called de novo #roteins, meaning com#letely ne), made "rom scratch. Designing #roteins is di""ic%lt beca%se o" the )ay they are constr%cted. As (ill DeGrado, a #rotein chemist D% Pont, ex#lains' 9A characteristic o" #roteins is that their activities de#end on their three&dimensional str%ct%res. !hese activities may range "rom hormonal action to a "%nction in digestion or in metabolism. 0hatever their "%nction, it,s al)ays essential to have a de"inite three&dimensional sha#e or str%ct%re.9 !his three& dimensional str%ct%re "orms )hen a chain "olds to "orm a com#act molec%lar ob-ect. !o get a "eel "or ho) to%gh it is to #redict the nat%ral "olding o" a #rotein chain, #ict%re a straight #iece o" cord )ith h%ndreds o" magnets and stic+y +nots along its length. 5n this state, it,s easy to ma+e and easy to %nderstand. o) #ic+ it %#, #%t it in a glass -ar, and sha+e it "or a long time. Co%ld yo% #redict its "inal sha#e* Certainly not' it,s a tangled mess. @ne might call this e""ort at #rediction 9the stic+y&cord& "olding #roblem9B #rotein chemists call theirs 9the #rotein&"olding #roblem. Given the correct conditions, a #rotein chain al)ays "olds into one s#ecial sha#e, b%t that sha#e is hard to #redict "rom -%st the straightened str%ct%re. Protein designers, tho%gh, "ace the di""erent -ob o" "irst determining a desired "inal sha#e, and then "ig%ring o%t )hat linear se$%ence o" amino acids to %se to ma+e that sha#e. 0itho%t solving the classic #rotein&"olding #roblem, they have beg%n to solve the #rotein&design #roblem. !hat :as 2een (cco #lished .o Far8 (ill DeGrado and his colleag%es at D% Pont had one o" the "irst s%ccesses' 90e,ve been able to %se basic #rinci#les to design and b%ild a sim#le molec%le that "olds %# the )ay )e )ant it to. !his is really the "irst real exam#le o" a designed #rotein str%ct%re, designed "rom scratch, not by ta+ing an already existing str%ct%re and tin+ering )ith it.9 Altho%gh scientists do the )or+, the )or+ itsel" is really a "orm o" engineering, as sho)n by the title o" the "ield,s -o%rnal, 3rotein Engineering. (ill DeGrado,s descri#tion o" the #rocess ma+es this clear' 9A"ter yo%,ve made it, the next ste# is to "ind o%t )hether yo%r #rotein did )hat yo% ex#ected it to do. Did it "old* Did it #ass ions across bilayers Ps%ch as cell membranesR* Does it have a catalytic "%nction Ps#eeding s#eci"ic chemical reactionsR* And that,s tested %sing the a##ro#riate ex#eriment. 8ore than li+ely, it )on,t have done )hat yo% )anted it to do, so yo% have to "ind o%t )hy. o), a good design has in it a contingency #lan "or "ail%re and hel#s yo% learn "rom mista+es. Aather than designing a str%ct%re that )o%ld ta+e a year or more to analy.e, yo% design it so that it can be assayed "or given "%nction or str%ct%re in a matter o" days.9 8any gro%#s are #%rs%ing #rotein design today, incl%ding academic researchers li+e Hane and Dave Aichardson at D%+e ?niversity, (r%ce Eric+son at the ?niversity o" orth Carolina, and !om (l%ndell, Aobin Deatherbarro), and Alan =ersht in (ritain. !he s%ccesses have started to roll in. Ha#an, ho)ever, is %ni$%e in having an organi.ation devoted excl%sively to s%ch #ro-ects' the Protein Engineering Aesearch 5nstit%te 2PEA53 in @sa+a. 5n 199C, PEA5 anno%nced the s%ccess"%l design and constr%ction o" a de novo #rotein several times larger than any b%ilt be"ore. $s +here (nything .#ecial (bout Proteins8 !he main advantage o" #roteins is that they are "amiliar' a lot is +no)n abo%t them, and many tools exist "or )or+ing )ith them. >et #roteins have disadvantages as )ell. H%st beca%se this design )or+ is starting )ith #roteinsIso"t, s$%ishy molec%les that are only marginally s%itable "or nanotechnologyIdoesn,t mean it )ill stay )ithin those limits. De Grado #oints o%t 9!he "%ndamental goal o" o%r )or+ in de novo design is to be able to ta+e the next ste# and get entirely a)ay "rom #rotein systems.9 An early exam#le is the )or+ o" 0allace Carothers o" D% Pont, )ho %sed a de novo a##roach to st%dying the nat%re o" #roteins' Aather than trying to c%t %# #roteins, he tried to b%ild %# things starting )ith amino acids and other similar monomers. 5n 19F7, he s%cceeded in ma+ing nylon.

DeGrado ex#lains 9!here is a dee# #hiloso#hical belie" at D% Pont in the ability o" #eo#le to ma+e molec%les de novo that )ill do %se"%l things. And there is a "air degree o" commitment "rom the management that "ollo)ing that #ath )ill lead to #rod%cts' not directly, and not al)ays #redictably, b%t they +no) that they need to s%##ort the basic science. 95 thin+ %ltimately )e have a better chance at doing some really exciting things by de novo design, beca%se o%r re#ertory sho%ld be m%ch greater than that o" nat%re. !hin+ abo%t the ability to "ly' @ne co%ld breed better carrier #igeons or one co%ld design air#lanes.9 !he biology comm%nity, ho)ever, leans more to)ard ornithology than to)ard aeros#ace engineering. DeGrado,s ex#erience is that 9a lot o" biologists "eel that i" yo% aren,t )or+ing )ith the real thing Pnat%ral #roteinsR, yo% aren,t st%dying biology, so they don,t totally acce#t )hat )e,re doing. @n the other hand, they recogni.e it as good chemistry.9 !here $s Protein Engineering :eaded8 Di+e the 5(8 #hysicists, #rotein designers are moved by a vision o" molec%lar engineering. 5n 19;9, (ill DeGrado #redicted, 95 thin+ )e,ll be able to ma+e catalysts or en.ymeli+e molec%les, #ossibly ones that cataly.e reactions not cataly.ed in nat%re.9 Catalysts are molec%lar machines that s#eed %# chemical reactions' they "orm a sha#e "or the t)o reacting molec%les to "it into and thereby hel# the reaction move "aster, %# to a million reactions #er second. e) ones, "or reactions that no) go slo)ly, )ill give enormo%s cost savings to the chemical ind%stry. !his #rediction )as borne o%t -%st a "e) months later, )hen Denver researchers Hohn /te)art, Karl 4ahn, and 0iesla) Klis anno%nced their ne) en.yme, designed "rom scratch over a #eriod o" t)o years and b%ilt s%ccess"%lly on the "irst try. 5t,s a catalyst, ma+ing some reactions go abo%t 1CC,CCC times "aster. obel Pri.e&)inning biochemist (r%ce 8erri"ield believes that 9i" others can re#rod%ce and ex#and on this )or+, it )ill be one o" the most im#ortant achievements in biology or chemistry.9 DeGrado also has longer term #lans "or #rotein design, beyond ma+ing ne) catalysts' 95t )ill allo) %s to thin+ abo%t designing molec%lar devices in the next "ive to ten years. 5t sho%ld be #ossible %ltimately to s#eci"y a #artic%lar design and b%ild it. !hen yo%,ll have, say, #roteinli+e molec%les that sel"&assemble into com#lex molec%lar ob-ects, )hich can serve as machinery. (%t there,s a limit to ho) small yo% can ma+e devices. >o%,ll shrin+ things do)n so "ar and then yo% )on,t be able to go any "%rther, beca%se yo%,ve reached molec%lar dimensions.9 8ar+ Pearson sho)s that management at D% Pont also has this vision. Aegarding the #ros#ects "or nanotechnology and assemblers, he remar+ed, 9>o% +no), it,ll ta+e money and e""ort and good ideas "or s%re. (%t to my )ay o" thin+ing, there is no absol%te "%ndamental limitation to #recl%de %s "rom doing this +ind o" thing.9 4e didn,t say his com#any #lans to develo# nanotechnology, b%t s%ch #lans aren,t really necessary. D% Pont is already on the nanotechnology #ath, "or otherIshorter&term, commercialIreasons. Di+e 5(8, i" they do decide to move $%ic+ly, they have the reso%rces and "or)ard&loo+ing #eo#le needed to s%cceed. !ho Else 2uilds "olecular 1b;ects8 Chemists, most o" )hom do not )or+ on #roteins, are the traditional ex#erts in b%ilding molec%lar ob-ects. As a gro%# they,ve been b%ilding molec%les "or over a cent%ry, )ith ever increasing ability and con"idence. !heir methods are all indirect' !hey )or+ )ith billions o" atoms at a timeI massive #arallelismIb%t )itho%t control o" the #ositions o" their )or+#ieces. !he molec%les ty#ically t%mble randomly in a li$%id or gas, li+e #ieces o" a #%..le that may or may not "it together correctly )hen sha+en together in a box. 0ith clever design and #lanning, most #ieces )ill -oin #ro#erly. Chemists mix molec%les on a h%ge scale 2in o%r sim%lation vie), a test t%be holds a ch%rning molec%lar s)arm )ith the vol%me o" an inland sea3, yet they still achieve #recise molec%lar trans"ormations. Given that they )or+ so indirectly, their achievements are asto%nding. !his is, in #art, the res%lt o" the enormo%s amo%nt o" )or+ #o%red into the "ield "or many decades. !ho%sands o"

chemists are )or+ing on molec%lar constr%ction in the ?nited /tates aloneB add to that the chemists in E%ro#e, in Ha#an, and in the rest o" the )orld, and yo% have a h%ge comm%nity o" researchers ma+ing great strides. !ho%gh it #%blishes only a one&#aragra#h s%mmary o" each research re#ort, a g%ide to the chemical literat%reIChemical !bstractsIcovers several library )alls and gro)s by many "eet o" shel" s#ace every year. :ow Can "ixing Che icals 2uild "olecular 1b;ects8 An engineer )o%ld say that chemists 2at least those s#eciali.ing in synthesis3 are doing constr%ction )or+, and )o%ld be ama.ed that they can accom#lish anything )itho%t being able to grab #arts and #%t them in #lace. Chemists, in e""ect, )or+ )ith their hands tied behind their bac+s. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can be termed 9#ositional chemistry9 or 9#ositional synthesis,9 and )ill give chemists the ability to #%t molec%les )here they )ant them in three&dimensional s#ace. Aather than trying to design #%..le #ieces that )ill stic+ together #ro#erly by themselves )hen sha+en together in a box, chemists )ill then be able to treat molec%les more li+e bric+s to be stac+ed. !he basic #rinci#les o" chemistry )ill be the same, b%t strategies "or constr%ction )ill become "ar sim#ler. 0itho%t #ositional control, chemists "ace a #roblem something li+e this' Pict%re a giant glass barrel "%ll o" tiny battery&#o)ered drills, b%..ing a)ay in all directions, vibrating aro%nd in the barrel. >o%r goal is to ta+e a #iece o" )ood and #%t a hole in -%st one s#eci"ic s#ot. 5" yo% sim#ly thro) it in the barrel, it )ill be drilled ha#ha.ardly in many #laces. !o control the #rocess, yo% m%st #rotect all the #laces yo% don,t )ant drilledI#erha#s by gl%ing #rotective #ieces o" metal over most o" the )ood s%r"ace. !his #roblemIho) to #rotect one #art o" a molec%le )hile altering another #artIhas "orced chemists to develo# ever&cleverer #loys to b%ild larger and larger molec%les. $* Che ists Can "a'e "olecules, !hy (ren)t +hey 2uilding Fancy "olecular "achines8 Chemists can achieve great things, b%t have "oc%sed m%ch o" their e""ort on d%#licating molec%les "o%nd in nat%re and then ma+ing minor variants. As an exam#le, ta+e #alytoxin, a molec%le "o%nd in a 4a)aiian coral. 5t )as so di""ic%lt to ma+e in the lab that it has been called 9the 8o%nt Everest o" synthetic chemistry,9 and its synthesis )as hailed as a tri%m#h. @ther e""orts are #o%red into ma+ing small molec%les )ith %n%s%al bonding, or molec%les o" remar+able symmetry, li+e 9c%bane9 and 9dodecahedrane9 2sha#ed li+e the Platonic solids they are named a"ter3. Chemists, at least in the ?nited /tates, regard themselves as nat%ral scientists even )hen their li"e,s )or+ is the constr%ction o" molec%les by arti"icial means. @rdinarily, #eo#le )ho b%ild things are called engineers. And indeed, at the ?niversity o" !o+yo the De#artment o" /ynthetic Chemistry is #art o" the =ac%lty o" EngineeringB its chemists are designing molec%lar s)itches "or storing com#%ter data. Engineering achievements )ill re$%ire )or+ directed at engineering goals. :ow Could Che ists "ove +oward 2uilding "olecular "achines8 8olec%lar engineers )or+ing to)ard nanotechnology need a set o" molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s "or ma+ing large, com#lex str%ct%res. /ystematic b%ilding&bloc+ constr%ction )as #ioneered by (r%ce 8erri"ield, )inner o" the 19;G obel Pri.e in Chemistry. 4is a##roach, +no)n as 9solid #hase synthesis,9 or sim#ly 9the 8erri"ield method,9 is %sed to synthesi.e the long chains o" amino acids that "orm #roteins. 5n the 8erri"ield method, cycles o" chemical reaction each add one molec%lar b%ilding bloc+ to the end o" a chain anchored to a solid s%##ort. !his ha##ens in #arallel to each o" trillions o" identical chains, b%ilding %# trillions o" molec%lar ob-ects )ith a #artic%lar se$%ence o" b%ilding bloc+s. Chemists ro%tinely %se the 8erri"ield method to ma+e molec%les larger than #alytoxin, and related techni$%es are %sed "or ma+ing D A in so&called gene machines' an ad "rom an Alabama com#any reads, 9C%stom D AIP%ri"ied and Delivered in G; ho%rs.9

0hile it,s hard to #redict ho) a nat%ral #rotein chain )ill "oldIthey )eren,t designed to "old #redictablyIchemists co%ld ma+e b%ilding bloc+s that are larger, more diverse, and more inclined to "old %# in a single, obvio%s, stable #attern. 0ith a set o" b%ilding bloc+s li+e these, and the 8erri"ield method to string them together, molec%lar engineers co%ld design and b%ild molec%lar machines )ith greater ease. :ow Do Researchers Design !hat +hey Can)t .ee8 !o ma+e a ne) molec%le, both its str%ct%re and the #roced%re to ma+e it m%st be designed. Com#ared to gigantic science #ro-ects li+e the /%#ercond%cting /%#ercollider and the 4%bble /#ace !elesco#e, )or+ing )ith molec%les can be done on a shoestring b%dget. /till, the costs o" trying many di""erent #roced%res add %#. !o hel# #redict in advance )hat )ill )or+ and )hat )on,t, designers t%rn to models. >o% may have #layed )ith molec%lar models in chemistry class' colored #lastic balls and stic+s that "it together li+e !in+er !oys. Each color re#resents a di""erent +ind o" atom' carbon, hydrogen, and so on. Even sim#le #lastic models can give yo% a "eel "or ho) many bonds each +ind o" atom ma+es, ho) long the bonds are, and at )hat angles they are made. A more so#histicated "orm o" model %ses only s#heres and #artial s#heres, )itho%t stic+s. !hese color"%l, b%m#y sha#es are called CPK models, and are )idely %sed by #ro"essional chemists. obel la%reate Donald Cram remar+s that 90e have s#ent h%ndreds o" ho%rs b%ilding CPK models o" #otential com#lexes and grading them "or desirability as research targets.9 4is research, li+e that o" "ello) obelists Charles H. Pedersen and Hean&8arie Dehn, has "oc%sed on designing and ma+ing medi%m&si.ed molec%les that sel" assemble. Altho%gh #hysical models can,t give a good descri#tion o" ho) molec%les bend and move, com#%ter&based molec%les can. Com#%ter&based modeling is already #laying a +ey role in molec%lar engineering. As Hohn 0al+er 2a "o%nder and leader o" A%todes+3 has remar+ed, 9?nli+e all o" the ind%strial revol%tions that #receded it, molec%lar engineering re$%ires, as an essential com#onent, the ability to design, model, and sim%late molec%lar str%ct%res %sing com#%ters.9 !his has not gone %nnoticed in the b%siness comm%nity. Hohn 0al+er,s remar+ )as #art o" a tal+ on nanotechnology given at A%todes+, a leader in com#%ter&aided design and one o" the "ive largest so"t)are "irms in the ?nited /tates. /oon a"ter this tal+, the com#any made its "irst ma-or investment in the com#%ter&aided design o" molec%les. :ow Does "olecular Design Co #are to "ore Fa iliar <inds o* Engineering8 8an%"act%rers and architects +no) that designs "or ne) #rod%cts and b%ildings are best done on a com#%ter, by com#%ter&aided design 2CAD3. !he ne) molec%lar design so"t)are can be called molecular C!7, and in its "ore"ront are researchers s%ch as Hay Ponder o" the >ale ?niversity De#artment o" 8olec%lar (io#hysics and (iochemistry. Ponder ex#lains that 9!here,s a strong lin+ bet)een )hat molec%lar designers are doing and )hat architects do. 8ichael 0ard o" D% Pont is designing a set o" b%ilding bloc+s "or a !in+er !oy set so that yo% can b%ild larger str%ct%res. !hat,s exactly )hat )e,re doing )ith molec%lar modeling techni$%es. 9All the design and mechanical engineering #rinci#les that a##ly to b%ilding a s+yscra#er or a bridge a##ly to molec%lar architect%re as )ell. 5" yo%,re b%ilding a bridge, yo%,re going to model it and see ho) many tr%c+s can be on the bridge at the same time )itho%t it colla#sing, )hat +ind o" "orces yo%,re going to a##ly to it, )hether it can stand %# to an earth$%a+e. 9And the same #rocess goes on in molec%lar design' >o%,re designing #ieces and then analy.ing the stresses and "orces and ho) they )ill change and #ert%rb the str%ct%re. 5t,s exactly the same as designing and b%ilding a b%ilding, or analy.ing the stresses on any macroscale str%ct%re. 5 thin+ it,s im#ortant to get #eo#le to thin+ in those terms. 9!he molec%lar designer has to be creative in the same )ay that an architect has to be creative in designing a b%ilding. 0hen #eo#le are loo+ing at the interior o" a #rotein str%ct%re and trying to

redesign it to create a s#ace that )ill have a #artic%lar "%nction, s%ch as binding to #artic%lar molec%les, that,s li+e designing a room to %se as a dining roomIone that )ill "it certain si.es o" tables and certain n%mbers o" g%ests. 5t,s the same thing in both cases' >o% have to design a s#ace "or a "%nction.9 Ponder combines chemistry and com#%ter science )ith an overall engineering a##roach' 95,m +ind o" a hybrid. 5 s#end abo%t hal" my time doing ex#eriments and abo%t hal" my time )riting com#%ter #rograms and doing com#%tational )or+. 5n the laboratory, 5 create or design molec%les to test some o" the com#%tational ideas. /o 5,m at the inter"ace.9 !he engineering #ers#ective hel#s in thin+ing abo%t )here molec%lar research can lead' 9Even tho%gh )ith nanotechnology )e,re at the nanometer scale, the str%ct%res are still big eno%gh that an a)"%l lot o" things are classical. Again, it,s really li+e b%ilding bridgesIvery small bridges. And so there are many almost standard mechanical& engineering techni$%es "or architect%re and b%ilding str%ct%res, s%ch as stress analysis, that a##ly.9 Doesn)t Engineering Re/uire "ore +ea wor' +han .cience Does8 Getting to nanotechnology )ill re$%ire the )or+ o" ex#erts in di""ering "ields' chemists, )ho are learning ho) to ma+e molec%lar machinesB com#%ter scientists, )ho are b%ilding the needed design toolsB and #erha#s /!8 and A=8 ex#erts, )ho can #rovide tools "or molec%lar #ositioning. !o ma+e #rogress, ho)ever, these ex#erts m%st do more than -%st )or+, they m%st )or+ together. (eca%se nanotechnology is inherently interdisci#linary, co%ntries that dra) hard lines bet)een their academic disci#lines, as the ?nited /tates does, )ill "ind that their researchers have di""ic%lty comm%nicating and coo#erating. 5n chemistry today, a hal"&do.en researchers aided by a "e) tens o" st%dents and technicians is considered a large team. 5n aeros#ace engineering, enormo%s tas+s li+e reaching the 8oon or b%ilding a ne) airliner are bro+en do)n into tas+s that are )ithin the reach o" small teams. All these small teams )or+ together, "orming a large team that may consist o" tho%sands o" engineers aided by many tho%sands o" technicians. 5" chemistry is to move in the direction o" molec%lar systems engineering, chemists )ill need to ta+e at least a "e) ste#s in this direction. 5n engineering, everyone +no)s that designing a roc+et )ill re$%ire s+ills "rom many disci#lines. /ome engineers +no) str%ct%res, others +no) #%m#s, comb%stion, electronics, so"t)are, aerodynamics, control theory, and so on and so "orth do)n a long list o" disci#lines. Engineering managers +no) ho) to bring di""erent disci#lines together to b%ild systems. 5n academic science, interdisci#linary )or+ is #rod%ctive and #raised, b%t is relatively rare. /cientists don,t need to coo#erate to have their res%lts "it together' they are all describing di""erent #arts o" the same thingInat%reIso in the long r%n, their res%lts tend to come together into a single #ict%re. Engineering, ho)ever, is di""erent. (eca%se it is more creative 2it act%ally creates com#lex things3, it demands more attention to team)or+. 5" the "inished #arts are going to )or+ together, they m%st be develo#ed by gro%#s that share a common #ict%re o" )hat each #art m%st accom#lish. Engineers in di""erent disci#lines are "orced to comm%nicateB the challenge o" management and team& b%ilding is to ma+e that comm%nication ha##en. !his )ill a##ly to engineering molec%lar systems as m%ch as it does to engineering com#%ters, cars, aircra"t, or "actories. Hay Ponder s%ggests that it,s a $%estion o" #ers#ective. 95t,s all a matter o" )hat,s #erceived to be im#ortant by the di""erent gro%#s that have to come together to ma+e this )or+' the chemists doing their bit and the com#%tational #eo#le doing their bit. Peo#le have to come together and see the big #ict%re. !here are #eo#le )ho try to bridge the ga#s, b%t they are rare com#ared to the #eo#le )ho -%st )or+ in their o)n s#ecialty.9 Progress to)ard nanotechnology )ill contin%e, and as it does, researchers trained as chemists, #hysicists, and the li+e )ill learn to tal+ to one another to solve ne) #roblems. !hey )ill either learn to thin+ li+e engineers and )or+ in teams, or they )ill be ecli#sed by colleag%es )ho do.

(re +hese Proble s Preventing (dvances8 0ith all these #roblems, the advance to)ard nanotechnology steadily contin%es. 5nd%stry m%st gain ever&better control o" matter to stay com#etitive in the )orld mar+et#lace. !he /!8, #rotein engineering, and m%ch o" chemistry are driven by commercial im#eratives. =oc%sed e""orts )o%ld yield "aster advances, yet even )itho%t a clear "oc%s, advances in this direction have an air o" inevitability. As (ill DeGrado observes, 90e really do have the tools. Ex#erience has sho)n that )hen yo% have the analytic and synthetic tools to do things, in the end science goes ahead and does them Ibeca%se they are doable.9 Hay Ponder agrees' 9@ver the next "e) years, yo%,re going to see slo) evol%tionary advances coming "rom #eo#le tin+ering )ith molec%lar str%ct%res and "ig%ring o%t their #rinci#les. Peo#le are going to )or+ on a #artic%lar #roblem beca%se they see some a##lication "or it or beca%se they got grant "%nding "or it. And in the #rocess o" doing something li+e im#roving a la%ndry detergent,s ability to clean #rotein stains, Proctor and Gamble is going to hel# )or+ o%t the #rinci#les "or ho) to increase molec%lar stability, and to design s#aces inside the molec%les.9 (re the 9a#anese 2earing +heir .hare o* the 2urden in Nanotechnology Research8 =or a variety o" reasons, Ha#an,s contrib%tion to nanotechnology research #romises to be excellent. 0hile the ?nited /tates has generally #%rs%ed researching this area )ith little sense o" long&term direction, it a##ears that Ha#an has beg%n to ta+e a more "oc%sed a##roach. Aesearchers there already have clear ideas abo%t molec%lar machinesIabo%t )hat might )or+ and )hat #robably )on,t. Ha#anese researchers are acc%stomed to a higher level o" interdisci#linary contact and engineering em#hasis than are Americans. 5n the ?nited /tates, )e #ri.e 9basic science,9 o"ten calling it 9#%re science,9 as i" to im#ly that #ractical a##lications are a "orm o" im#%rity. Ha#an instead em#hasi.es 9basic technology.9 anotechnology is a basic technology, and the Ha#anese recogni.e it as s%ch. Aecent changes at the !o+yo 5nstit%te o" !echnologyIHa#an,s e$%ivalent o" 85!Ire"lect their vie)s o" #romising directions "or "%t%re research. =or many decades, !o+yo !ech has had t)o ma-or divisions' a =ac%lty o" /cience and a =ac%lty o" Engineering. !o these is no) being added a =ac%lty o" (ioscience and (iotechnology, to consist o" "o%r de#artments' a De#artment o" (ioscience, a De#artment o" (ioengineering, a De#artment o" (iomolec%lar Engineering, and )hat is termed a 9De#artment o" (iostr%ct%re.9 !he creation o" a ne) "ac%lty in a ma-or Ha#anese %niversity is a rare event. 0hat ?./. %niversity has a de#artment ex#licitly devoted to molec%lar engineering* Ha#an has both the de#artments at !o+yo !ech and Kyoto ?niversity,s recently established De#artment o" 8olec%lar Engineering. Ha#an,s 5nstit%te "or Physical and Chemical Aesearch 2A5KE 3 has broad&based interdisci#linary strength. 4iroy%+i /asabe, head o" the =rontier 8aterials Aesearch Program at A5KE , notes that the instit%te has ex#ertise in organic synthesis, #rotein engineering, and /!8 technology. /asabe says that his laboratory may need a molec%lar mani#%lator o" the sort described in the next cha#ter to accom#lish its goals in molec%lar engineering. Aesearch consortia in Ha#an are also moving to)ard nanotechnology. !he Ex#loratory Aesearch "or Advanced !echnology @rgani.ation 2EAA!@3 s#onsors many three&to&"ive year #ro-ects in #arallel, each )ith a s#eci"ic goal. Consider the )or+ in #rogress' W >oshida anomechanism Pro-ect W 4otani 8olec%lar Dynamic Assembly Pro-ect W K%nita+e 8olec%lar Architect%re Pro-ect W agayama Protein Array Pro-ect W Aono Atomcra"t Pro-ect !hese "oc%s on di""erent as#ects o" gaining control over matter at the atomic level. !he

agayama Protein Array Pro-ect aims to %se #roteins as engineering materials to move to)ard ma+ing ne) molec%lar devices. !he Aono Atomcra"t Pro-ect does not involve n%clear #o)erIas its translation might im#lyIb%t is instead an interdisci#linary e""ort to %se an /!8 to arrange matter on the atomic scale. At some #oint, )or+ on nanotechnology m%st move beyond s#in&o""s "rom other "ields and %nderta+e the design and constr%ction o" molec%lar machinery. !his shi"t "rom o##ort%nistic science to organi.ed engineering re$%ires a change in attit%de. 5n this, Ha#an leads the ?nited /tates. !hat $s a Good Educated Guess o* :ow -ong $t !ill +a'e to Develo# "olecular Nanotechnology8 8olec%lar nanotechnology )ill emerge ste# by ste#. 8a-or milestones, s%ch as the engineering o" #roteins and the #ositioning o" individ%al atoms, have already been #assed. !o get a sense o" the li+ely #ace o" develo#ments, )e need to loo+ at ho) vario%s trends "it together. Com#%ter&based molec%lar&modeling tools are s#a)ning com#%ter&aided design tools. !hese )ill gro) more ca#able. !he %nderlying technology baseIcom#%ter hard)areIhas "or decades been im#roving in #rice and #er"ormance on a stee#ly rising c%rve, )hich is generally ex#ected to contin%e "or many years. !hese advances are $%ite inde#endent o" #rogress in molec%lar engineering, b%t they ma+e molec%lar engineering easier, s#eeding advances. Com#%ter models o" molec%lar machines are beginning to a##ear, and these )ill )het the a##etites o" researchers. Progress in engineering molec%lar machines, )hether %sing #roximal #robes or sel"&assembly, )ill event%ally achieve stri+ing s%ccessesB the ob-ectives o" research in Ha#an )ill begin to dra) serio%s attentionB %nderstanding o" the long&term #romise o" molec%lar engineering )ill become more )ides#read. /ome combination o" these develo#ments )ill event%ally lead to a serio%s, #%blic a##raisal o" )hat these technologies can achieveIand then the )orld o" o#inion, "%nding, and research "ashion )ill change. (e"ore, advances )ill be steady b%t ha#ha.ardB a"ter)ard, advances )ill be driven )ith the energy that "lo)s into ma-or commercial, military, and medical research #rograms, beca%se nanotechnology )ill be recogni.ed as "%rthering ma-or commercial, military, and medical goals. !he timing o" s%bse$%ent events de#ends largely on )hen this threshold o" serio%s attention is reached. 5n ma+ing time estimates, #eo#le are #rone to ass%me that a large change m%st ta+e a long time. 8ost do, b%t not all. Poc+et calc%lators had a dramatic e""ect on the slide&r%le ind%stry' they re#laced it. !he s#eed o" this change ca%ght the slide r%le mog%ls by s%r#rise, b%t the #ace o" #rogress in electronics didn,t slo) do)n merely to s%it their ex#ectations. @ne can arg%e that nanotechnology )ill be develo#ed "ast' many co%ntries and com#anies )ill be com#eting to get there "irst. !hey )ill be driven on)ard both by the immense ex#ected bene"itsIin many areas, incl%ding medicine and the environmentIas )ell as by #otential military a##lications. !hat is a #o)er"%l combination o" motives, and com#etition is a #o)er"%l accelerator. A co%nterarg%ment, tho%gh, s%ggests that develo#ment )ill be slo)' anyone )ho has done anything o" signi"icance in the real )orld o" technologyIdoing a scienti"ic ex#eriment, )riting a com#%ter #rogram, bringing a ne) #rod%ct to mar+etI+no)s that these goals ta+e longer than ex#ected. 5ndeed, 4o"stadter,s Da) states that #ro-ects ta+e longer than ex#ected, even )hen 4o"stadter,s Da) is ta+en into acco%nt. !his #rinci#le is a good g%ide "or the short term, and "or a single #ro-ect. !he sit%ation di""ers, tho%gh, )hen many di""erent a##roaches are being ex#lored by many di""erent gro%#s over a #eriod o" years. 8ost #ro-ects may ta+e longer than ex#ected, b%t )ith many teams trying many a##roaches, one a##roach may #rove "aster than ex#ected. !he )inner o" a race is al)ays "aster than the average r%nner. Hohn 0al+er notes, 9!he remar+able thing abo%t molec%lar engineering is that it loo+s li+e there are many di""erent )ays to get there and, at the moment, ra#id #rogress is being made along every #athIall at the same time.9

Also, technology develo#ment is li+e a race r%n over an %nma##ed co%rse. 0hen the "irst r%nners reach the to# o" a hill, they may see a shortc%t. A trailing r%nner may decide to crash o"" into the b%shes, and st%mble across a bicycle and a #aved road. !he #rogress o" technology is seldom #redictable beca%se #rogress o"ten reveals ne) directions.

:/!3, <F -(>E!/ @S. !CCE-E/!)(>: :/<W), <F )EC,><-<:6 ,ow close we are to goal de ends on whether technological advances are a constant ace of accelerating. (n this diagram, the dashed line re resents the current level of technology, and the large dot in the u er right re resents a goal such as nanotechnology. With a straight+line advance, it*s easier to estimate how far away a goal is. With an accelerating advance, a goal can be reached with little warning. /o ho) can )e estimate a date "or the arrival o" nanotechnology* 5t,s sa"est to ta+e a ca%tio%s a##roach' 0hen antici#ating bene"its, ass%me it,s "ar o""B )hen #re#aring "or #otential #roblems, ass%me it,s right aro%nd the corner. !he old "ol+ saying a##lies' 4o#e "or the best, #re#are "or the )orst. Any dates assigned to 9"ar o""9 and 9right aro%nd the corner9 can be no better than ed%cated g%essesImolec%lar behavior can be calc%lated, b%t not technology timetables o" this sort. 0ith those caveats, )e )o%ld estimate that general&#%r#ose molec%lar assemblers )ill li+ely be develo#ed in the early decades o" the t)enty&"irst cent%ry, #erha#s in the "irst. Hohn 0al+er, )hose technological "oresight has led A%todes+ "rom start&%# to a dominant role in its ind%stry, #oints o%t that not long ago, 98any visionaries intimately "amiliar )ith the develo#ments o" silicon technology still "orecast it )o%ld ta+e bet)een t)enty and "i"ty years be"ore molec%lar engineering became a reality. !his is )ell beyond the #lanning hori.on o" most com#anies. (%t recently, everything has beg%n to change.9 (ased on the ne) develo#ments, 0al+er #laces his bet' 9C%rrent #rogress s%ggests the revol%tion may ha##en )ithin this decade, #erha#s starting )ithin "ive years.

Cha#ter = +he +hreshold o* Nanotechnology 5n the last cha#ter, )e loo+ed at the state o" c%rrent research, b%t "rom there to the nanotechnology o" even the Poc+et Dibrary scenario is a lea#. 4o) )ill this ga# be crossed* 5n this cha#ter, )e o%tline ho) emerging technologies can lead to nanotechnology. !he act%al #ath to nanotechnologyIthe one that history boo+s )ill recordIco%ld emerge "rom any one o" the research directions in #hysics, biochemistry, and chemistry reco%nted in the last cha#ter, or 2more li+ely3 "rom a combination o" them. !he availability o" so many good o#tions b%ilds con"idence that the goal can be reached, even )hile it decreases con"idence that some #artic%lar #ath )ill be "astest. !o see ho) advances might cross the ga# "rom #resent technology to early nanotechnology, let,s "ollo) one #ath o%t o" the many #ossible. !ridging the /ap @ne )ay to bridge the ga# )o%ld thro%gh the develo#ment o" an A=8&based molecular mani ulator ca#able o" doing #rimitive molec%lar man%"act%ring. !his device )o%ld combine a sim#le molec%lar deviceIa molec%lar gri##erI)ith an A=8 #ositioning mechanism. An A=8 can move its ti# )ith #recisionB a molec%lar mani#%lator )o%ld add a gri##er to the ti# to hold a molec%lar tool. A molec%lar mani#%lator o" this +ind )o%ld g%ide chemical reactions by #ositioning molec%les, li+e a slo), sim#le, b%t enormo%s assembler. 25n o%r standard sim%lation vie), )here a molec%lar assembler arm "its in a room, the A=8 a##arat%s o" a molec%lar mani#%lator )o%ld be the si.e o" a moon.3 Des#ite its limits, an A=8 molec%lar mani#%lator )ill be a stri+ing advance. 4o) might this advance occ%r* /ince )e,re choosing one #ath o%t o" many #ossible, )e may as )ell incl%de more details and tell a story. 2A more technical descri#tion o" a device li+e the "ollo)ing can be "o%nd in >atureB see the technical bibliogra#hy3. .cenario: Develo#ing a "olecular "ani#ulator /everal years ago, researchers at the ?niversity o" (robdingnag began )or+ on develo#ing a molec%lar mani#%lator. !o reach this goal, a team o" a do.en #hysicists, chemists, and #rotein researchers banded together 2some )or+ing "%ll time, some #art time3 and began the creative team)or+ needed to solve the basic #roblems. =irst they needed to attach a gri##er to an A=8 ti#. As gri##ers, they chose "ragments o" antibody molec%les, the selectively stic+y #roteins that the imm%ne system %ses to bind and identi"y germs. 5" they co%ld get the 9bac+9 o" the molec%le st%c+ onto a ti#, then the 9"ront9 co%ld bind and hold molec%lar tools. 2!he advantage o" antibody "ragments )as this' "reedom o" tool choice. /ince the late 19;Cs, researchers had been able to generate antibodies able to bind almost any #reselected molec%le&or molec%lar tool.3 !hey tried hal" a do.en methods be"ore "inding one that )or+ed reliably, )ith res%lts li+e those sho)n in =ig%re <. A grad%ate st%dent got her Ph.D., and the A=8 ti# got its gri##er.

=5G?AE <' 8@DEC?DAA 8A 5P?DA!@A ! molecular mani ulator .!F% ti and tool holder, above0 would bind and molecular tools to build u a wor# iece, molecule by molecule. osition reactive

5n #arallel, the ?. (rob A=8 researchers )or+ed on #lacing ti#s in a #recise location and then holding them there )ith atomic acc%racy "or seconds at a time. !his #roved straight"or)ard. !hey %sed techni$%es develo#ed else)here d%ring the early 199Cs, adding only modest re"inements. !hey no) had their gri##er and a )ay o" #%tting it )here they )anted it, b%t they needed a set o" tools. !he gri##er )as li+e the ch%c+ o" a drill, )aiting to have di""erent bits "itted into its tool&holder slot. /o as the "inal ste#, the synthetic chemists on the team made a do.en di""erent molec%lar tools, all identical at one end b%t di""erent at the other. !he similar #arts all bo%nd to the same antibody tool&holder, slotting neatly into #osition. !he di""erent #arts )ere all chemically reactive in di""erent )ays. Di+e the molec%lar tools in the hall o" assembler arms in Cha#ter F, each o" these tools co%ld %se a chemical reaction to trans"er some atoms to a molec%lar ob-ect %nder constr%ction. Develo#ing the molec%lar tool +it )as the to%ghest #art o" the #ro-ectB it too+ abo%t as m%ch )or+ as had gone into d%#licating the #alytoxin molec%le bac+ in the 19;Cs. one o" the tas+s in the #ro-ect demanded the sol%tion o" a dee# scienti"ic #%..le, and none demanded the sol%tion o" a notorio%sly di""ic%lt engineering #roblem. Each tas+ had many #ossible sol%tions, the #roblem )as to "ind a com#atible set o" sol%tions and a##ly them. A"ter a "e) years, the sol%tions came together and the ?. (rob research team began b%ilding ne) molec%les by molec%lar mani#%lation. o) many teams are doing li+e)ise. 2uilding with "olecular Gri##ers and +ools !o b%ild something )ith the ?. (rob team,s A=8&based molec%lar mani#%lator system, yo% %se it as "ollo)s' =irst, choose a s%r"ace to b%ild on and #lace it %nder the ti# in a #ool o" li$%id. !hen d%n+ the A=8 ti# into the li$%id, bringing it do)n to the s%r"ace, and bac+ it o"" a little. Constr%ction can no) begin as soon as a tool is loaded into the gri##er. !%bes and #%m#s can "lo) di""erent li$%ids over the s%r"ace and #ast the gri##er, carrying

di""erent tool molec%les. 5" yo% )ant to do something )ith a tool o" !y#e A, yo% )ash in the #ro#er li$%id, and a !y#e A molec%le #rom#tly stic+s the to the gri##er as sho)n in =ig%re <. @nce it is in the gri##er, yo% can %se the A=8 mechanism to move it aro%nd and #%t it )here yo% )ant it. 8ove it %# to the s%r"ace at a convenient s#ot, )ait a "e) seconds, and it reacts, "orming a bond and leaving a molec%lar "ragment attached to the s#ot yo% chose. !o add a di""erent "ragment, yo% can %se a tool o" !y#e (' yo% bac+ %# the ti#, "lo) in a "resh li$%id carrying the ne) tools, and in a moment a tool o" the ne) ty#e is bo%nd in #lace and ready to a##ly, either on or alongside the "irst s#ot. /te# by ste#, yo% b%ild %# a #recise molec%lar str%ct%re. Each ste# ta+es only seconds. 8olec%lar tools #o# into the gri##er in a "raction o" a second, and %sed tools #o# o"" at the same rate. @nce the ti# has #ositioned a molec%le, it reacts $%ic+ly, abo%t a million times "aster than %n)anted reactions at other sites. 5n this )ay, the molec%lar mani#%lator gives good control o" )here reactions )ill occ%r 2tho%gh it is not as reliable as an advanced assembler )o%ld be3. 5t is "airly "ast by a chemist,s standardsI#er cycle Ib%t still a million times slo)er than an advanced assembler. 5t can #er"orm a variety o" ste#s, b%t isn,t as "lexible and ca#able as an advanced assembler. 5n short, it is hardly the last )ord in nanotechnology, yet is a great advance over )hat has gone be"ore. Products 0ith its ability to accelerate desired reactions by a "actor o" a million or so, the ?. (rob team,s molec%lar mani#%lator can #er"orm 1C,CCC to 1CC,CCC ste#s )ith good reliability. (ac+ in the 19;Cs, chemists ma+ing #rotein molec%les str%ggled to #er"orm -%st one h%ndred ste#s. !he ?. (rob research team 2and its many imitators3 can no) b%ild str%ct%res that are stronger and easier to design than #roteins' not "lo##y, "olded chains, b%t r%gged ob-ects held together by a st%rdy net)or+ o" bonds. !ho%gh not as strong and dense as diamond, these str%ct%res are li+e bits o" a to%gh engineering #lastic. A s#ecially ada#ted com#%ter&aided design system ma+es it easy to design molec%lar ob-ects made "rom these materials. >et the A=8&based molec%lar mani#%lator has one grave disadvantage' 5t does chemistry one molec%le at a time, and it ties %# a machine as ex#ensive as a car "or ho%rs or days to #rod%ce that one large molec%le. /ome molec%les, tho%gh, are val%able eno%gh to be )orth b%ilding even one at a time. !hese dra) #rom#t attention. A single molec%le isn,t m%ch %se as a dye, a dr%g, or a "loor )ax, b%t it can have s%bstantial val%e i" it #rovides %se"%l in"ormation. !he ?. (rob team $%ic+ly #%blishes a #ile o" scienti"ic #a#ers based on ex#eriments )ith single molec%les' they b%ild a molec%le, #robe it, re#ort the res%lts, and b%ild another. /ome o" these res%lts sho) chemists else)here in the m%ltibillion&dollar chemical ind%stry ho) to design ne) catalysts, molec%les that can hel# ma+e other molec%les more chea#ly, cleanly, and e""iciently. !his in"ormation is )orth a lot. !hree ne) #rod%cts o" s#ecial interest are among the "irst to be made. !he "irstI molec%lar electronicsIbegins )ith ex#eriments cond%cted by a research gro%# at a com#%ter chi# com#any. !hey %se their molec%lar mani#%lator to b%ild single molec%les and #robe them, grad%ally learning ho) to b%ild the #arts needed "or molec%lar electronic com#%ters. !hese ne) com#%ters don,t immediately become #ractical, beca%se the costs are too high "or ma+ing s%ch large molec%les )ith A=8&based technology. >et some com#anies begin to #rod%ce sim#ler molec%lar electronic devices "or %se in sensors and s#eciali.ed high&s#eed signal #rocessing. A s#ecialty ind%stry is born and begins to ex#and. !he second #rod%ct is a gene reader, a com#lex molec%lar device b%ilt on the s%r"ace o" a chi#. !he biologists )ho b%ilt the reader combined #roteins borro)ed "rom cells )ith s#ecial& #%r#ose molec%lar machines designed "rom scratch. !he res%lt )as a molec%lar system that binds D A molec%les and #%lls them #ast a read&head&li+e ta#e thro%gh a ta#e recorder. !he device )or+s as "ast as some nat%rally occ%rring molec%lar machines that read D A, )ith one +ey advantage' it o%t#%ts its data electronically. At that s#eed, a single device can read a h%man

genome in abo%t a year. !ho%gh still too ex#ensive "or a doctor,s o""ice, these readers are #rom#tly in great demand "rom research laboratories. Another small ind%stry is born. !he third #rod%ct is "ar more im#ortant, in the long r%n' re#lacement ti#s "or molec%lar mani#%lators, gri##ers, and tools that are better than the originals. 0ith these ne), more versatile devices, researchers are no) b%ilding more ambitio%s #rod%cts and tools. More 0cenario1 The Next 0tep to Nanotechnology 0hile the #hysicist&led team at ?. (rob )as "inishing its )or+ on the A=8&based molec%lar mani#%lator, a chemist&led team at the ?niversity o" Dilli#%t )as )or+ing "%rio%sly. !hey sa) the ?. (rob des+to# machine as too large and its ex#ected #rod%cts as too ex#ensive. Even bac+ in the 19;Cs, David (iegelsen o" the Serox Palo Alto Aesearch Center had noted, 9!he main dra)bac+ 5 see to %sing a hybrid #rotoassembler PA=8&based molec%lar mani#%latorR is that it )o%ld ta+e a long time to b%ild -%st one %nit. (%ilding re$%ires a series o" atom&by&atom constr%ction ste#s. 5t )o%ld be better to b%ild in #arallel "rom the very beginning, ma+ing many trillions o" these molec%les all at the same time. 5 thin+ there is tremendo%s #o)er in #arallel assembly. 8aybe another "ield, chemistry or biology, o""ers a better )ay to do it.9 !he chemists at ?. Dill aimed to develo# that better )ay, b%ilding "irst sim#le and then more and more com#lex molec%lar machines. !he event%al res%lt )as a #rimitive molec%lar assembler able to b%ild molec%lar ob-ects by the trillions. Che ist)s +ools 4o) did the chemists achieve this* D%ring the years )hen the ?. (rob team )as develo#ing the molec%lar mani#%lator, researchers )or+ing in #rotein science and synthetic chemistry had made better and better systems o" molec%lar b%ilding bloc+s. Chemists )ere )ell #re#ared "or doing this' by the late 19;Cs, it had become #ossible to b%ild stable str%ct%res the si.e o" medi%m&si.ed #rotein molec%les, and )or+ had beg%n to "oc%s on ma+ing these molec%les #er"orm %se"%l )or+ by binding and modi"ying other molec%les. Chemists learned to %se these so#histicated catalysts&early molec%lar devices&to ma+e their o)n )or+ easier by hel#ing in the man%"act%re o" still more large molec%les. Another traditional chemist,s tool )as so"t)are "or doing com#%ter&aided design. !he early so"t)are designed by Hay Ponder and =rederic Aichards o" >ale ?niversity %ltimately led to semi& a%tomatic tools "or designing molec%les o" a #artic%lar sha#e and "%nction. Chemists then co%ld easily design molec%les that )o%ld sel"&assemble into larger str%ct%res, several tens o" nanometers across. "olecular Construction "achines !hese advances in so"t)are and chemical synthesis let the ?. Dill team tac+le the tas+ o" b%ilding a #rimitive version o" a molec%lar assembler. Altho%gh they co%ldn,t b%ild anything as com#lex as a nanocom#%ter or as sti"" as diamond, they didn,t need to. !heir design %sed sliding molec%lar rods to #osition a molec%lar gri##er m%ch li+e the gri##er %sed at ?. (rob, again %sing the s%rro%nding li$%id to control )hich tool the gri##er held. 5nstead o" an A=8,s electronic controls, they %sed the s%rro%nding li$%id to control the #osition o" the rods as )ell. 5n a ne%tral sol%tion, the rods )o%ld )ithdra)B in an acid sol%tion, they )o%ld extend. 4o) "ar they moved de#ended on )hat other molec%les )ere aro%nd to lodge in s#ecial #oc+ets and bloc+ the motion. !heir #rimitive assemblers b%ilt m%ch the same sorts o" #rod%cts that the ?. (rob molec%lar mani#%lator didB the tools )ere similar, and s#eed and acc%racy )ere abo%t the same. >et there )as one dramatic advantage' Abo%t 1,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC ?. Dill assemblers co%ld "it in the s#ace occ%#ied by one ?. (rob mani#%lator, and it )as easy to #rod%ce a mere 1,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC times as m%ch #rod%ct at the same cost. 0ith the "irst, #rimitive assemblers, constr%ction )as slo) beca%se each ste# re$%ired ne) li$%id baths and several seconds o" soa+ing and )aiting, and a ty#ical #rod%ct might ta+e

tho%sands o" ste#s. onetheless, the ?. Dill team made a lot o" money licensing their technology to researchers trying to commerciali.e #rod%cts they had "irst researched )ith the ?. (rob machine. A"ter starting an inde#endent com#any 2 ano"abricators, 5nc.3, they #o%red their research e""orts into b%ilding better machines. 0ithin a "e) years, they had assemblers )ith m%lti#le gri##ers, each loaded )ith a di""erent +ind o" toolB "lashes o" colored light )o%ld "li# molec%les "rom state to state 2they co#ied these molec%les "rom the #igments o" the retina o" the eye3B "li##ing molec%les )o%ld change tools and change rod #ositions. /oa+ing and )aiting become a thing o" the #ast, and soon they )ere #o%ring o%t #arts that, )hen mixed )ith li$%id and added to dishes )ith s#ecial blan+ chi#s )o%ld b%ild %# the dense memory layers that made #ossible the Poc+et Dibrary. !hat )as )hen things started moving "ast. !he semicond%ctor ind%stry )ent the )ay o" the vac%%m t%be ind%stry. 8oney and talent #o%red into the ne) technology. 8olec%lar CAD tools got better, assemblers made it easy to b%ild )hat )as designed, and "ast #rod%ction and testing made molec%lar engineering as easy as #laying )ith so"t)are. Assemblers got better, "aster, and chea#er. Aesearchers %sed assemblers to b%ild nanocom#%ters, and nanocom#%ters to control better, "aster assemblers. ?sing tools to b%ild better tools is an ancient story. 0ithin a decade, almost anything co%ld be made by molec%lar man%"act%ring, and )as

=5G?AE 6' PA!4/ !@ >anotechnology develo ment flow chart

A @!EC4 @D@G>

0ill develo#ments in the late #re&brea+thro%gh days be as -%st described* Certainly not' the technical a##roaches )ill di""er, and the ?./. academic research setting im#lied by the scenario co%ld easily be re#laced by academic, commercial, governmental, or military research settings in any o" the advanced nations. 0hat do seem realistic are the im#lied re$%irements "or e""ort, technology, and time, as )ell as the basic ca#abilities o" di""erent devices. 0e are a##roaching a threshold o" ca#ability beyond )hich "%rther advances )ill become easy and "ast.

Cha#ter > !or'ing with Nanotechnology !he )ord manufacturing comes "rom the Datin manufactus, meaning 9handmade.9 !oday, the term brings to mind h%ge, noisy machines stam#ing o%t #rod%cts and s#e)ing )aste. Giving %# man%"act%red #rod%cts isn,t #o#%lar or #racticalIalmost everything )e %se today is man%"act%red. 5" all machine&made #rod%cts )ere to s%ddenly vanish, most #eo#le in the ?nited /tates )o%ld "ind themselves na+ed and o%tdoors, )ith very little aro%nd them. Ex#anding man%"act%ring is an ob-ective o" nearly every nation on Earth. 0e can,t give %# man%"act%ring, b%t )e can re#lace today,s technologies )ith something radically di""erent. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can hel# %s get )hat )e seem to )ant' high&$%ality #rod%cts made at lo) cost )ith little environmental im#act. Cha#ter 1E )ill describe the grave #roblems raised by misa##lication o" this ca#ability, b%t "or no) )e disc%ss the #ositive side. 0hat "ollo)s is an ex#loration o" the #ossibleIa loo+ at the devices that co%ld be b%ilt once #recise molec%lar control is achieved, and a loo+ at ho) #eo#le might r%n a man%"act%ring b%siness based on nanomachines. !ry not to thin+ o" these s+etches as hard&and&"ast #redictions o" #recisely ho) things )ill be done, b%t instead as descri#tions o" ca#abilitiesIthe sorts o" things that can be done once nanotechnology is )ell in hand. Do%btless there )ill be better )ays to do things than the )ays )e describe. As %s%al, re"erences to the 19;Cs and be"ore are historically acc%rateB in the rest, the science isn,t "iction.. 0cenario1 2esert ose Industries

Desert Aose 5nd%stries is a diversi"ied )holesale man%"act%rer o" eno%gh "%rnit%re, com#%ters, toys, and recreation e$%i#ment to have made any t)entieth&cent%ry ca#tain o" ind%stry #ro%d. (%t i" yo% assembled all Desert Aose em#loyees in "ront o" cor#orate head$%arters, yo%,d see Carl and 8aria /antos standing beside a b%ilding the si.e o" a "o%r& bedroom ho%se. !his ind%strial giant is a ty#ical mom&and&#o# b%siness, hel#ed along by a net)or+ o" telecomm%ters )ho handle sales and c%stomer s%##ort "rom homes scattered across orth America. !heir "riends chide Carl and 8aria as 9old&"ashioned traditionalists9 and tease 8aria abo%t abandoning Carl in the "actory )hile she travels to E%ro#e, Asia, /o%th America, and A"rica "or ne) b%siness. 5n the molec%lar&man%"act%ring b%siness, "amiliar #ersonal s+ills and virt%esI honesty, acc%racy, good comm%nicationIare as im#ortant as be"ore. 8aria li+es to )or+ )ith the c%stomers. Aided by her /.(. in molec%lar man%"act%ring "rom 85! and her 8=A in design, she #atiently hel#s nervo%s ne) designers thro%gh their "irst man%"act%ring ex#erience, and )ith %n"lagging co%rtesy and good h%mor, handles r%sh orders, last&second changes, and s#ecial orders. 8aria,s good design ideas and caring #ersonality )on them a re#%tation "or being res#onsive to c%stomer needs. Carl, #recise and care"%l, b%ilt their name "or acc%rate man%"act%ring and delivery on sched%le. Exce#t "or Carl,s habit o" #laying Gersh)in at "%ll vol%me )ith the )indo)s o#en, the only so%nds at the Desert Aose site are the birds along the ban+s o" the stream that )inds across the canyon "loorB no clan+ing machinery here. 8aria,s #arents b%ilt Desert Aose 5nd%stries o%t here on an old smelter many miles a)ay "rom h%man neighbors. !hey regraded the land and cleaned %# the )astes. 8aria ada#ted a molec%lar #rocessor to convert heavy&metal contaminants bac+ into stable minerals, and shi##ed them o"" to hel# re"ill the hole they had originally come "rom, an old o#en&#it mine. !he desert has mostly healed no), and a "e) to%gh trees are s#reading along the stream again. e) c%stomers coming %# the road "or a "irsthand loo+ at the man%"act%ring o#erations get the "%ll to%r' a l%nch1meeting room, 8aria,s o""ice, the man%"act%ring #lant, and the )areho%se s#ace "or #arts and #rod%cts o%t bac+. 9!he #lant9 is the largest room, and Carl,s

#ride. !)elve man%"act%ring #onds and their cooling systemsIvats ranging in si.e "rom a +itchen sin+ to a small s)imming #oolIare )here Desert Aose %ses nanocom#%ters and assemblers to do their b%ilding )or+. A #l%mbers, nightmare o" #i#ing r%ns bet)een the #onds and a tri#le ro) o" containers )ith labels li+e CAA(@ =EED/!@CK, PAEPAAED PDA!5 ?8, /5VE&G /!A?C!?AAD =5(EA/, and PAE=A( 8@!@A/. Carl +ee#s a good stoc+ o" #arts and ra) materials on hand, )ith more in the %ndergro%nd )areho%se. /%re, some rare things almost never get %sed, b%t having them ready to go is one o" Carl,s secrets "or delivering on time and b%ilding #recisely to s#eci"ication. @ver on a table are Carl,s m%sic system and the com#%tersI descendants o" the 5(8 PCs and 8acintoshes o" the 19;CsIthat are %sed to r%n the man%"act%ring #rocess. 5n a s#ace the si.e o" a large living room, Carl and 8aria have all the ra) materials and all the #rod%ction e$%i#mentInanocom#%ters and assemblersIthey need "or b%ilding almost anything. @ccasionally, Carl and 8aria need the services o" s#eciali.ed tools, s%ch as disassemblers, that might exist only in labs. A disassembler )or+s li+e an archeologist, #ainsta+ingly excavating the str%ct%re o" a molec%le, removing atom a"ter atom, in order to record and analy.e the molec%lar str%ct%re. (eca%se they )or+ so slo)ly, noting the #osition o" each molec%le, disassemblers aren,t %sed "or recycling o#erationsIit )o%ld be ex#ensive and #ointless to record all this %n)anted data. (%t as tools "or analy.ing the %n+no)n, they,re hard to beat.. 8aria "o%nd this o%t )hen a c%stomer sent her an order "or tro#ically scented "%rnit%re and "ixt%res "or his resta%rant, b%t instead o" incl%ding the so"t)are instr%ctions "or b%ilding the #er"%me, 8aria "o%nd a #lastic bag "%ll o" resino%s bro)n goo+ )ith a note saying, 95 got this st%"" in the tro#ics. Please ma+e the "abric smell li+e this.9 8aria 2a"ter sni""ing the goo+ and deciding it smelled s%r#risingly tro#ically good3 shi##ed the sam#le to the lab "or chemical analysis by disassembler. !he lab sent bac+ so"t)are )ith the molec%lar descri#tion and instr%ctions "or b%ilding the same scent into the "%rnit%re. Carl %s%ally sched%les #rod%ction very tightly' in every tan+, assemblers are b%ilding #rod%ctsB every com#%ter is directing )or+. (%t this morning, listening to the tone o" 8aria,s voice )a"ting in "rom the "ront o""ice, Carl changes his #lans' something im#ortant is abo%t to ha##en. 4e #ost#ones b%ilding orders "or video )all#a#er and commemorative diamond baseballs, and holds three #ools and a com#%ter ready. 8in%tes later, 8aria h%rries in, her voice tight and anxio%s. 9Carl, that earth$%a+e do)n so%thIthey need hel#. Amanda "rom the Aed Cross is sending the so"t)are right no).9 !o b%ild a #rod%ct, Desert Aose needs design instr%ctionsIcom#%ter so"t)areI"or the assemblers. Carl and 8aria have their o)n so"t)are library, b%t %s%ally they b%y or rent )hat they need, or the c%stomers send their o)n designs. !he so"t)are that Amanda sends contains the s#eci"ications to man%"act%re the emergency e$%i#ment' a set o" instr%ctions to be r%n on a standard des+to# com#%ter. 0ithin min%tes, t)o co#ies o" the Aed Cross so"t)are arrive electronically. (e"ore starting the b%ild, Carl metic%lo%sly chec+s to ma+e s%re that the master co#y and bac+%# co#y agree and )eren,t damaged in transit. 5" the instr%ctions are com#lete and correct and #ro#erly signed )ith the Aed Cross data stam#, then the des+to# com#%ter )ill comm%nicate these b%ilding instr%ctions directly to millions o" small com#%ters acting as on&the&-ob "oremen directing the )or+' nanocom#%ters. Nanoco'puters 0hile the "irst, #rimitive assemblers )ere controlled by changing )hat molec%les are in the sol%tion aro%nd the device, getting the s#eed and acc%racy )anted "or large&scale man%"act%ring ta+es real com#%tation. Carl,s set%# %ses a combination o" s#ecial&#%r#ose molec%le #rocessors and general&#%r#ose assemblers, all controlled and orchestrated by nanocom#%ters.

Com#%ters bac+ in the 199Cs %sed microelectronics. !hey )or+ed by moving electrical charge bac+ and "orth thro%gh cond%cting #athsI)ires, in e""ectI%sing it to bloc+ and %nbloc+ the "lo) o" charge in other #aths. 0ith nanotechnology, com#%ters are b%ilt "rom molec%lar electronics. Di+e the com#%ters o" the 199Cs, they %se electronic signals to )eave the #atterns o" digital logic. (eing made o" molec%lar com#onents, tho%gh, they are b%ilt on a m%ch smaller scale than 199Cs com#%ters, and )or+ m%ch "aster and more e""iciently. @n the scale o" o%r sim%lated molec%lar )orld, 199Cs com#%ter chi#s are li+e landsca#es, )hile nanocom#%ters are li+e individ%al b%ildings. Carl,s des+to# PC contains over a trillion nanocom#%ters, eno%gh to o%t&com#%te all the microelectronic com#%ters o" the t)entieth cent%ry #%t together. (ac+ in the dar+ ages o" the 19;Cs, an ex#loratory engineer #ro#osed that nanocom#%ters co%ld be mechanical, %sing sliding rods instead o" moving electrons as sho)n in =ig%re ;. !hese molec%lar mechanical com#%ters )ere m%ch easier to design than molec%lar electronic com#%ters )o%ld have been. !hey )ere a big hel# in getting some idea o" )hat nanotechnology co%ld do.

=5G?AE ;' 8EC4A 5CAD !AA /5/!@A !n electronic transistor .above0 lets current flow when a negative electric charge is a lied and bloc#s current when a ositive charge is a lied. )he mechanical =transistor= .below0 lets the horiAontal rod move when the vertical rod is down, and bloc#s the horiAontal rod when the vertical rod is u . Either device can be used to build logic gates and com uters. Even bac+ then, it )as #retty obvio%s that mechanical com#%ters )o%ld be slo)er than electronic com#%ters. Carl,s molec%lar electronic PC )o%ld have been no great s%r#rise, tho%gh nobody +ne) -%st ho) to design one. 0hen nanotechnology act%ally arrived and #eo#le started com#eting to b%ild the best #ossible com#%ters, molec%lar electronics )on the technology race. /till, mechanical nanocom#%ters could have done all the nanocom#%ting -obs at Desert Aose' ordinary, everyday molec%lar man%"act%ring -%st doesn,t demand the last )ord in com#%ter #er"ormance. =or Carl, the millions o" nanocom#%ters in the mil+y )aters o" his b%ilding #onds are -%st extensions o" machines on his des+, machines there to hel# him r%n his b%siness and deliver #rod%cts to his c%stomersIor, in the case o" the Aed Cross emergency, to hel# #rovide time& critical emergency s%##lies. (y reserving those three se#arate #onds, Carl can either b%ild three

di""erent +inds o" e$%i#ment "or the Aed Cross or %se all the #onds to mass&#rod%ce the "irst thing on the Aed Cross list' emergency shelters "or ten tho%sand #eo#le. !he so"t)are is ready, the #l%mbing is "ine, the dr%ms o" b%ilding materials are all to##ed %#, the /#ecial 8ix "or this -ob is loaded' the b%ild is ready to start. 9@+ay,9 Carl tells the com#%ter, 9b%ild Aed Cross tents.9 Com#%ter tal+s to nanocom#%ters. 5n all three #ools, nanocom#%ters tal+ to assemblers. !he b%ild begins. Asse'bling Products /ome o" the b%ilding done at Desert Aose 5nd%stries %ses assemblers m%ch li+e the ones )e sa) in the "irst hall o" the #lant to%r, bac+ in the sim%lated molec%lar )orld o" the /ilicon Jalley =aire. As seen in sim%lation, they are big, slo), com#%ter&controlled things moving molec%lar tools. 0ith the right instr%ctions and machinery to +ee# them s%##lied )ith molec%lar tools, these general&#%r#ose assemblers can b%ild almost anything. !hey,re slo), tho%gh, and ta+e a lot o" energy to r%n. /ome o" the b%ilding %ses s#ecial&#%r#ose assembly systems in the molec%le&#rocessing style, li+e the systems in the basement )e sa) in the to%r o" a sim%lated molec%lar "actory. !he s#ecial&#%r#ose systems are all moving belts and rollers, b%t no arms. !his is "aster and more e""icient, b%t "or $%antity orders, cooling re$%irements limit the s#eed. 5t,s "aster to %se larger, #re"abricated b%ilding bloc+s. Desert Aose %ses these "or most o" their )or+, and es#ecially "or r%sh orders li+e the one Carl -%st set %#. !heir %ndergro%nd )areho%se has room&si.ed bins containing %#)ard o" a tho%sand tons o" the most #o#%lar b%ilding bloc+s, things li+e str%ct%ral "ibers. !hey,re made at #lants on the 0est Coast and shi##ed here by s%b)ay "or ready %se. @ther +inds are made on site %sing the s#ecial&#%r#ose assemblers. Carl,s main room has several cabinet&si.ed boxes hoo+ed %# to the #l%mbing, each ta+ing in ra) materials, r%nning them thro%gh this sort o" s#eciali.ed molec%lar machinery, and #%m#ing o%t a mil+y syr%# o" #rod%ct. @ne syr%# contains motors, another one contains com#%ters, and another is "%ll o" microsco#ic #l%g&in light so%rces. All go into tan+s "or later %se. o) they,re being %sed. !he mix "or the Aed Cross tent -ob is mostly str%ct%ral "iber stronger than the old b%llet#roo"&vest materials. @ther b%ilding bloc+s also go in, incl%ding motors, com#%ters, and do.ens o" little str%ts, angle brac+ets, and doohic+ies. !he mix )o%ld loo+ li+e someone had stirred together the #arts "rom a do.en toy sets, i" the #arts )ere big eno%gh to see. 5n "act, tho%gh, the largest #arts )o%ld be no more than bl%rry dots, i" yo% sa) one %nder a normal o#tical microsco#e. !he mix also contains bloc+&assemblers, "loating "ree li+e everything else. !hese machines are big, abo%t li+e an o""ice b%ilding in o%r sim%lation vie) )ith the standard settings. Each has several -ointed arms, a com#%ter, and several #l%gs and soc+ets. !hese do the act%al constr%ction )or+. !o begin the b%ild, #%m#s #o%r the mix into a man%"act%ring #ond. !he constant t%mbling motions o" microsco#ic things in li$%ids )o%ld be too disorgani.ed "or b%ilding anything so large as a tent, so the bloc+&assemblers start grabbing their neighbors. 0ithin moments, they have lin+ed %# to "orm a "rame)or+ s#read thro%gh the li$%id. o) that they are #l%gged together, they divide %# -obs, and get to )or+. 5nstr%ctions #o%r in "rom Carl,s des+to# com#%ter. !he bloc+&assemblers %se stic+y gri##ers to #%ll s#eci"ic +inds o" b%ilding bloc+s o%t o" the li$%id. !hey %se their arms to #l%g them together. =or a #ermanent -ob, they )o%ld be %sing bloc+s that bond together chemically and #ermanently. =or these tem#orary tents, tho%gh, the Aed Cross design %ses a set o" standard bloc+s that are #%t together )ith ama.ingly ordinary "asteners' these bloc+s have sna#s, #l%gs, and scre)s, tho%gh o" co%rse the #arts are atomically #er"ect and the threads on the scre)s are single helical ro)s o" atoms. !he res%lting -oints )ea+en the tent,s str%ct%re some)hat, b%t )ho cares* !he basic materials are almost a h%ndred times stronger than steel, so there is strength to )aste i" it ma+es man%"act%ring more convenient.

=iber segments sna# together to ma+e "abrics. /ome segments contain motors and com#%ters, lin+ed by "ibers that contain #o)er and data cables. /tr%ts sna# together )ith more motors and com#%ters to ma+e the tent,s main str%ct%res. /#ecial s%r"aces are made o" s#ecial b%ilding bloc+s. =rom the h%man #ers#ective, each tent is a light)eight str%ct%re that contains most o" the conveniences and com"orts o" an a#artment' coo+ing "acilities, a bathroom, beds, )indo)s, air conditioning, s#ecially modi"ied to meet the environmental demands o" the $%a+e& stric+en co%ntry. =rom a b%ilder,s #ers#ective, es#ecially "rom a nanomachine,s #oint o" vie), the tent is -%st str%ct%re sla##ed together "rom a "e) h%ndred +inds o" #re"ab #arts. 5n a matter o" seconds, each bloc+&assembler has #%t together a "e) tho%sand #arts, and its section o" the tent is done. 5n "act, the )hole thing is done' many trillions o" hands ma+e light )or+. A crane s)ings o%t over the #ond and starts #l%c+ing o%t tent #ac+ages as "resh mix "lo)s in. 8aria,s concern has dra)n her bac+ to the #lant to see ho) the b%ild is going. 95t,s coming along,9 Carl reass%res her. 9Doo+, the "irst batch o" tents is o%t.9 5n the )areho%se, the "irst #allet is already stac+ed )ith "ive layers o" dove&gray 9s%itcases9' tents dried and #ac+ed "or trans#ort. Carl grabs a tent by the handle and l%gs it o%t the door. 4e #%shes a tab on the corner labeled 9@#en,9 and it ta+es over a min%te to %n"old to a str%ct%re a hal"&do.en #aces on a side. !he tent is big, and light eno%gh to blo) a)ay i" it didn,t cling to the gro%nd so tightly. 8aria and Carl to%r the tent, testing the a##liances, chec+ing the constr%ction o" "%rnit%re' everything is extremely light)eight com#ared to the b%l+&man%"act%red goods o" the 199Cs, to%gh b%t almost hollo). Di+e the other str%ct%res, the )alls and "loors are "%ll o" tiny motors and str%ts controlled by sim#le com#%ters li+e the ones %sed in t)entieth&cent%ry cars, televisions, and #inball machines. !hey can %n"old and re"old. !hey can also "lex to #rod%ce so%nd li+e a high&$%ality s#ea+er, or to absorb so%nd to silence o%tdoors rac+et. !he )hole three&room set%# is small and e""icient, loo+ing li+e a cross bet)een a boat cabin and a Ha#anese b%siness hotel room. @%tside, tho%gh, it is little more than a box. 8aria sha+es her head, +no)ing "%ll )ell )hat architects can do these days )hen they try to ma+e a b%ilding really "it its site. <h well, she thin+s, )hese won*t be used for long. 90ell, that loo+s #retty good to me,9 says Carl )ith satis"action. 9And 5 thin+ )e,ll be "inished in another ho%r.9 8aria is relieved. 95,m glad yo% had those #ools "reed %# so "ast.9 (y three o,cloc+, they,ve shi##ed three tho%sand emergency shelters, sending them by s%b)ay. 0ithin hal" an ho%r, tents are being set %# at the disaster site. !ehind the 0cenes and After3ard Desert Aose 5nd%stries and other man%"act%rers can ma+e almost anything $%ic+ly and at lo) cost. !hat incl%des the t%nneling machines and other e$%i#ment that made the s%b)ay system they %se "or shi##ing. Digging a t%nnel "rom coast to coast no) costs less than digging a single bloc+ %nder e) >or+ City %sed to. 5t )asn,t ex#ensive to get a dee#&transit terminal installed in their basement. H%st as the tents aren,t mere b%ndles o" canvas, these s%b)ays aren,t slo) things "%ll o" screeching, -olting metal boxes. !hey,re magnetically levitated to reach aircra"t s#eedsIas ex#erimental Ha#anese trains )ere in the late 19;CsIma+ing it easy "or Carl and 8aria to give their c%stomers $%ic+ service. !here,s still a road leading to the #lant, b%t nobody,s driven a tr%c+ over it "or years. !hey only ta+e in materials that they )ill event%ally shi# o%t in #rod%cts, so there,s nothing le"t over, and no )astes to d%m#. @ne corner o" the #lant is "%ll o" recycling e$%i#ment. !here are al)ays some obsolete #arts to get rid o", or things that have been damaged and need to be re)or+ed. !hese get bro+en do)n into sim#ler molec%les and #%t bac+ together again to ma+e ne) #arts.

!he g%n+ in the man%"act%ring #onds is )ater mixed )ith #articles m%ch "iner than silt. !he #articlesI"asteners, com#%ters, and the restIstay in s%s#ension beca%se they are )ra##ed in molec%lar -ac+ets that +ee# them there. !his %ses the same #rinci#le as detergent molec%les, )hich coat #articles o" oily dirt to "loat them a)ay. !ho%gh it )o%ldn,t be n%tritio%s or a##eti.ing, yo% co%ld drin+ the tent mix and be no )orse "or it. !o yo%r body, the #arts and their -ac+ets, and even the nanomachines, )o%ld be li+e so many bits o" grit and sa)d%st. 2Grandma )o%ld have called it ro%ghage.3 Carl and 8aria get their #o)er "rom solar cells in the road, )hich is the only reason they bothered having it #aved. 5n bac+ o" their #lant stands )hat loo+s li+e a "at smo+estac+. All it #rod%ces, tho%gh, is an %#dra"t o" clean, )arm air. !he dar+ly #aved road, ba+ing in the e) 8exico s%n, is cooler than yo% might ex#ect' it soa+s %# solar energy and ma+es electricity, instead o" -%st heat. @nce the #o)er is %sed, it t%rns bac+ into heat, )hich has to go some)here. /o the heat rises "rom their cooling to)er instead o" the road, and the energy does %se"%l )or+ on the )ay. /ome #rod%cts, li+e roc+et engines, are made more slo)ly and in a single #iece. !his ma+es them stronger and more #ermanent. !he tents, tho%gh, don,t need to be s%#erstrong and are -%st "or tem#orary %se. A "e) days a"ter the tents go %#, the earth$%a+e victims start to move o%t into ne) ho%sing 2#ermanent, better&loo+ing, and very earth$%a+e resistant3. !he tents get "olded and shi##ed o"" "or recycling. Aecycling things b%ilt this )ay is sim#le and e""icient' nanomachines -%st %nscre) and %nsna# the connectors and sort the #arts into bins again. !he shi#ments Desert Aose gets are mostly recycled to begin )ith. !here,s no s#ecial labeling "or recycled materials, beca%se the molec%lar #arts are the same either )ay. =or convenience 2and to +ee# the #lant small3, Carl and 8aria get most o" their #arts #re"abricated, even tho%gh they can ma+e almost anything. !hey can even ma+e more #rod%ction e$%i#ment. 5n one o" their man%"act%ring #onds, they can #%t together a ne) cabinet "%ll o" s#ecial&#%r#ose assemblers. !hey do this )hen they )ant to ma+e a ne) ty#e o" #art in& ho%se. Di+e #arts, the #art&assemblers are made by s#ecial&#%r#ose assemblers. Carl can even ma+e big vats in medi%m&si.e vats, %n"olding them li+e tents. 5" Desert Aose 5nd%stries needed to do%ble ca#acity, Carl and 8aria co%ld do it in -%st a "e) days. !hey did this once "or a s#ecial order o" stadi%m sections. 8aria got Carl to recycle the ne) b%ilding be"ore its shado) h%rt their cact%s garden. 4actory 4actories 5n the Desert Aose 5nd%stries scenario, man%"act%ring has become chea#, "ast, clean, and e""icient. ?sing "ast, #recise machines to handle matter in molec%lar #ieces ma+es it easy "or nanotechnology to be "ast, clean, and e""icient. (%t "or it to be chea , the man%"act%ring e$%i#ment has to be chea#. !he Desert Aose scenario sho)s ho) this can )or+. 8olec%lar&man%"act%ring e$%i#ment can be %sed to ma+e all the #arts needed to b%ild more molec%lar man%"act%ring e$%i#ment. 5t can even b%ild the machines needed to #%t the #arts together. !his resembles an idea develo#ed by A/A "or a sel"& ex#anding man%"act%ring com#lex on the 8oon, b%t made "aster and sim#ler %sing molec%lar machines and #arts. Re#licators 5n the early days o" nanotechnology, there )on,t be as many di""erent +inds o" machines as there are at Desert Aose. @ne )ay to b%ild a lot o" molec%lar man%"act%ring e$%i#ment in a reasonable time )o%ld be to ma+e a machine that can be %sed to ma+e a co#y o" itsel", starting )ith s#ecial b%t sim#le

chemicals. A machine able to do this is called a 9re#licator.9 0ith a re#licator and a #ot "%ll o" the right "%el and ra) materials, yo% co%ld start )ith one machine, then have t)o, "o%r, eight, and so on. !his do%bling #rocess soon ma+es eno%gh machines to be %se"%l. !he re#licatorsIeach incl%ding a com#%ter to control it and a generalI#%r#ose assembler to b%ild things&co%ld then be %sed to ma+e something else, li+e the tons o" s#eciali.ed machines needed to set %# a Desert Aose man%"act%ring #lant. At that #oint, the re#licators co%ld be discarded in "avor o" those more e""icient machines. Ae#licators are )orth a closer loo+, tho%gh, beca%se they sho) ho) $%ic+ly molec%lar man%"act%ring systems can be %sed to b%ild more man%"act%ring e$%i#ment. =ig%re 9 sho)s a design described in /tan"ord ?niversity co%rse C/ GCG in the s#ring o" 19;;. 5" )e )ere in one o" o%r standard sim%lation vie)s, the s%bmicrosco#ic device at the to# o" the #ict%re )o%ld be li+e a h%ge tan+, three stories tall )hen lying on its side. 8ost o" its interior is ta+en %# by a ta#e memory system that tells ho) to move the arm to b%ild all the #arts o" the re#licator, exce#t the ta#e itsel". !he ta#e gets made by a s#ecial ta#e&co#ying machine. At the right&hand end o" the re#licator are #ores "or bringing in "%el and ra)&material molec%les, and machinery "or #rocessing them. 5n the middle are com#%ter&controlled arms, li+e the ones )e sa) on the #lant tri#. !hese do most o" the act%al constr%ction. =5G?AE 9' AEPD5CA!@A ! re licator would be able to build co ies of itself when su lied with fuel and raw materials. (n the diagram, .!0 contains a nanocom uter, .B0 a library of stored instructions, .C0 contains machinery that ta#es in fuel and roduces electric ower, .70 is a motor, and .E0 contains machinery that re ares raw materials for use. .!ll volumes follow calculations resented in a class at Stanford.0 )he lower diagrams illustrate ste s in a re lication cycle, showing how the wor#ing s ace is #e t isolated from the external liBuid, which rovides the needed fuel and raw+material molecules. /e licators of this sort are useful as thought ex eriments to show how nanomachines can roduct more nanomachines, but s ecialiAed manufacturing eBui ment would be more efficient in ractice. !he ste#s in the cycleI%sing a co#y to bloc+ the t%be, beginning a "resh co#y, then releasing the old oneIill%strate one )ay "or a machine to b%ild a co#y o" itsel" )hile "loating in a li$%id, yet doing all its constr%ction )or+ inside, in vac%%m. 25t,s easier to design "or vac%%m, and this is ex#loratory&engineering )or+, so easier design is better design.3 Calc%lations s%ggest that the )hole constr%ction cycle can be com#leted in less than a $%arter ho%r, since the re#licator contains abo%t a billion atoms, and each arm can handle abo%t a million atoms #er second. At that rate, one device can do%ble and do%ble again to ma+e trillions in abo%t ten ho%rs. Each re#licator -%st sits in a chemical bath, soa+ing %# )hat it needs and ma+ing more re#licators. Event%ally, either the s#ecial chemicals r%n o%t or other chemicals are added to signal

them to do something else. At that #oint, they can be re#rogrammed to #rod%ce anything else yo% #lease, so long as it can be extr%ded "rom the "ront. !he #rod%cts can be long, and can %n"old or be #ieced together to ma+e larger ob-ects, so the si.e o" these initial re#licatorsIsmaller than a bacteri%mI)o%ld be only a tem#orary limitation. General (sse blers =rom the molec%lar mani#%lators and #rimitive assemblers described in the last cha#ter, the most li+ely #ath to nanotechnology leads to assemblers )ith more and more general ca#abilities. /till, e""iciency "avors s#ecial&#%r#ose machines, and the Desert Aose scenario didn,t ma+e m%ch %se o" general assemblers. 0hy bother ma+ing general&#%r#ose assemblers in the "irst #lace* !o see the ans)er, t%rn the $%estion aro%nd and as+, 0hy not b%ild s%ch a tool* !here is nothing o%tstandingly di""ic%lt abo%t a general assembler, as molec%lar machinery goes. 5t )ill -%st be a device )ith good, "lexible #ositional control and a system to "eed it a variety o" molec%lar tools. !his is a %se"%l, basic ca#ability. General&#%r#ose assemblers co%ld al)ays be re#laced by a lot o" s#eciali.ed devices, b%t to b%ild those s#eciali.ed devices in the "irst #lace, it ma+es sense to come %# )ith a more "lexible, general&#%r#ose system that can -%st be re#rogrammed. /o, general #%r#ose machines are li+ely to "ind %se in ma+ing short #rod%ction r%ns o" more s#eciali.ed devices. Aal#h 8er+le, a com#%ters and sec%rity ex#ert at Serox Palo Alto Aesearch Center, sees this as #aralleling the )ay man%"act%ring )or+s today' 9General #%r#ose devices co%ld do many tas+s, b%t they,ll do them ine""iciently. =or any given tas+, there )ill be one or a "e) best )ays o" doing it, and one or a "e) s#ecial #%r#ose devices that are "inely t%ned to do that one tas+. ails aren,t made by a general&#%r#ose machine sho#, they,re made by nail&ma+ing machines. 8a+ing nails )ith a general&#%r#ose machine sho# )o%ld be more ex#ensive, more di""ic%lt, and more time&cons%ming. Di+e)ise, in the "%t%re )e )on,t see a #roli"eration o" general&#%r#ose sel"&re#licating systems, )e,ll see s#eciali.ation "or almost every tas+.9 What Will These +apabilities Make Possible? 0e,ve s%rveyed a lot o" devices' assemblers o" vario%s "lavors, nanocom#%ters, disassemblers, re#licators, and others. 0hat,s im#ortant abo%t these is not the exact distinctions bet)een them, b%t the ca#abilities that they )ill give and the e""ects they )ill have on h%man lives. Again, )e are s%s#ending disc%ssion o" #otential misa##lications %ntil later. 5" )e tease a#art the im#lications o" )hat )e,ve seen in the Desert Aose scenario, )e can analy.e some o" the +ey im#acts o" molec%lar man%"act%ring in ind%stry, science, and medicine. +echnology and $ndustry At its base, nanotechnology is abo%t molec%lar man%"act%ring, and man%"act%ring is the basis o" m%ch o" today,s ind%stry. !his is )hy Desert Aose made a good starting #oint "or describing the #ossibilities o" a nanotechnological )orld. =rom an ind%strial #ers#ective, it ma+es sense to thin+ o" nanotechnology in terms o" #rod%cts and #rod%ction. >ew 3roducts' !oday, )e handle matter cr%dely, b%t nanotechnology )ill bring thoro%gh control o" the str%ct%re o" matter, the ability to b%ild ob-ects to atom&by&atom s#eci"ications. !his means being able to ma+e almost anything. (y com#arison, even today,s range o" #rod%cts )ill "eel very limited. anotechnology )ill ma+e #ossible a h%ge range o" ne) #rod%cts, a range )e can,t envision today. /till, to get a "eel "or )hat is #ossible, )e can loo+ at some easily imagined a##lications. /eliable 3roducts' !oday, #rod%cts o"ten "ail, b%t "or "ail%res to occ%rI"or a )ing to "all o"" an air#lane, or a bearing to )ear o%tIa lot o" atoms have to be o%t o" #lace. 5n the "%t%re, )e can do better. !here are t)o basic reasons "or this' better materials and better $%ality control, both achieved by molec%lar man%"act%ring. (y %sing materials tens o" times stronger than steel, as Desert Aose did, it )ill be easy to ma+e things that are very strong, )ith a h%ge sa"ety margin. (y b%ilding things )ith

atom&by&atom control, "la)s can be made very rare and extremely smallInonexistent, by #resent standards. 0ith nanotechnology, )e can design in big sa"ety margins and then man%"act%re the design )ith near&#er"ection. !he res%lt )ill be #rod%cts that are to%gh and reliable. 2!here )ill still be room "or bad designs, and "or #eo#le )ho )ish to ta+e ris+s in machines that balance on the edge o" disaster.3 (ntelligent 3roducts& !oday, )e ma+e most things "rom big ch%n+s o" metal, )ood, #lastic, and the li+e, or "rom tangles o" "ibers. @b-ects made )ith molec%lar man%"act%ring can contain trillions o" microsco#ic motors and com#%ters, "orming #arts that )or+ together to do something %se"%l. A climber,s ro#e can be made o" "ibers that slide aro%nd and re)eave to eliminate "rayed s#ots. !ents can be made o" #arts that slide and loc+ to t%rn a #ac+age into a b%ilding. 0alls and "%rnit%re can be made to re#air themselves, instead o" #assively deteriorating. @n a m%ndane level, this sort o" "lexibility )ill increase reliability and d%rability. (eyond this, it )ill ma+e #ossible ne) #rod%cts )ith abilities )e never imagined )e needed so badly. And beyond even this, it )ill o#en ne) #ossibilities "or art. (nex ensive 3roduction& !oday, #rod%ction re$%ires a lot o" labor, either "or ma+ing things or "or b%ilding and maintaining machines that ma+e things. Dabor is ex#ensive, and ex#ensive machines ma+e a%tomation ex#ensive, too. 5n the Desert Aose scenario, )e got a glim#se o" ho) molec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e #rod%ction "ar less ex#ensive than it is today. !his is #erha#s the most s%r#rising concl%sion abo%t nanotechnology, so )e,ll ta+e a closer loo+ at it in the next cha#ter. Clean 3roduction& !oday, o%r man%"act%ring #rocesses handle matter slo##ily, #rod%cing #oll%tion. @ne ste# #%ts st%"" )here it sho%ldn,t beB the next )ashes it o"" the #rod%ct and into the )ater s%##ly. @%r trans#ortation system )orsens the #roblem as %nreliable tr%c+s and tan+ers s#ill noxio%s chemicals over the land and sea. Everything is ex#ensive, so com#anies s+im# on even the hal"&e""ective #oll%tion controls that )e +no) ho) to b%ild. anotechnology )ill mean greater control o" matter, ma+ing it easy to avoid #oll%tion. !his means that a little #%blic #ress%re )ill go a long )ay to)ard a cleaner environment. Di+e)ise, it )ill ma+e it easy to increase e""iciency and red%ce reso%rce re$%irements. Prod%cts, li+e the Aed Cross tents at Desert Aose, can be made o" sna#&together, easily recyclable #arts. /o#histicated #rod%cts co%ld even be made "rom biodegradable materials. anotechnology )ill ma+e it easy to attac+ the ca%ses o" #oll%tion at their technological root. anotechnology )ill have great a##lications in the "ield o" ind%stry, m%ch as transistors had great a##lications in the "ield o" vac%%m t%be electronics, and democracy had great a##lications in the "ield o" monarchy. 5t )ill not so m%ch advance t)entieth&cent%ry ind%stry as re lace itInot all at once, b%t d%ring a thin slice o" historical time. .cience Chemistry' !oday, chemists )or+ )ith h%ge n%mber o" molec%les and st%dy them %sing clever, indirect techni$%es. 8a+ing a ne) molec%le can be a ma-or #ro-ect, and st%dying it can be another. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill hel# chemists ma+e )hat they )ant to st%dy, and it )ill hel# them ma+e the tools they need to st%dy it. anoinstr%ments )ill be %sed to #rod, meas%re, and modi"y molec%les in a host o" )ays, st%dying their str%ct%res, behaviors, and interactions. %aterials' !oday, materials scientists ma+e ne) s%#ercond%ctors, semicond%ctors, and str%ct%ral materials by mixing and cr%shing and ba+ing and "ree.ing, and so "orth. !hey dream o" "ar more str%ct%res than they can ma+e, and they st%mble across more things than they #lan. 0ith molec%lar man%"act%ring, materials science can be m%ch more systematic and thoro%gh. e) ideas can be tested beca%se ne) materials can be b%ilt according to #lan 2rather than #laying aro%nd, gro#ing "or a reci#e3. !his need not r%le o%t %nex#ected discoveries, since ex#erimentsIeven blind searchesI)ill go

m%ch "aster. A "e) tons o" ra) materials )o%ld be eno%gh to ma+e a billion sam#les, each a c%bic micron in si.e. 5n all o" history so "ar, materials scientists have never tested so many materials. 0ith nanoinstr%ments and nanocom#%ters, they co%ld. @ne laboratory co%ld then do more than all o" today,s materials scientists #%t together. Biology' !oday, biologists %se a host o" molec%lar devices borro)ed "rom biology to st%dy biology. 8any o" these can be vie)ed as molec%lar machines. anotechnology )ill greatly advance biology by #roviding better molec%lar devices, better nanoinstr%ments. /ome cells have already been ma##ed in ama.ing molec%lar detail, b%t biology still has "ar to go. 0ith nanoinstr%ments 2incl%ding molec%le&by&molec%le disassemblers3, biologists )ill at last be able to ma# cells com#letely and st%dy their interactions in detail. 5t )ill become easy not only to "ind molec%les in cells, b%t to learn )hat they do. !his )ill hel# in %nderstanding disease and the molec%lar re$%irements "or health, enormo%sly advancing medicine. Com utation' !oday, com#%ters range "rom a million to a billion times "aster than an old des+to# adding machine, and the res%lts have been revol%tionary "or science. Every year, more $%estions can be ans)ered by calc%lations based on +no)n #rinci#les o" #hysics. !he advent o" nanocom#%tersI even slo), miserable, mechanical nanocom#%tersI)ill give %s #ractical machines )ith a trillion times the #o)er o" today,s com#%ters 2essentially by letting %s #ac+age a trillion com#%ters in a small s#ace, )itho%t gobbling too m%ch money or energy.3 !he conse$%ences )ill again be revol%tionary. 3hysics' !he +no)n #rinci#les o" #hysics are ade$%ate "or %nderstanding molec%les, materials, and cells, b%t not "or %nderstanding #henomena on a scale that )o%ld still be s%bmicrosco#ic i" atoms )ere the si.e o" marbles. anotechnology can,t hel# here directly, b%t it can #rovide man%"act%ring "acilities that )ill ma+e h%ge #article accelerators economical, )here today they strain national b%dgets. 8ore generally, nanotechnology )ill hel# science )herever #recision and "ine details are im#ortant. /cience "re$%ently #roceeds by trying small variations in almost identical ex#eriments, com#aring the res%lts. !his )ill be easier )hen molec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e t)o ob-ects that are identical, molec%le by molec%le. 5n some areas, today,s techni$%es are not only cr%de, b%t destr%ctive. Archaeological sites are %ni$%e records o" the h%man #ast, b%t today,s techni$%es thro) a)ay most in"ormation d%ring the dig, by accident. =%t%re archaeologists, able to si"t soil not s#ec+ by s#ec+ b%t molec%le by molec%le, )ill be grate"%l indeed to those archaeologists )ho today leave some gro%nd %ndist%rbed. "edicine @" all the areas )here the ability to man%"act%re ne) tools is im#ortant, medicine is #erha#s the greatest. !he h%man body is intricate, and that intricacy extends beyond the range o" h%man vision, beyond microsco#ic imaging, do)n to the molec%lar scale. 98olec%lar medicine9 is an increasingly #o#%lar term today, b%t medicine today has only the sim#lest o" molec%lar tools. As biology %ses nanoinstr%ments to learn abo%t disease and health, )e )ill learn the #hysical re$%irements "or restoring and maintaining health. And )ith this +no)ledge )ill come the tools needed satis"y those re$%irementsItools ranging "rom im#roved #harmace%ticals to devices able to re#air cells and tiss%es thro%gh molec%lar s%rgery. Advanced medicine )ill be among the most com#lex and di""ic%lt a##lications o" nanotechnology. 5t )ill re$%ire great +no)ledge, b%t nanoinstr%ments )ill hel# gather this +no)ledge. 5t )ill #ose great engineering challenges, b%t com#%ters o" trillion"old greater #o)er )ill hel# meet those challenges. 5t )ill solve medical #roblems on )hich )e s#end billions o" dollars today, in ho#es o" modest im#rovements. !oday, modern medicine o"ten means an ex#ensive )ay to #rolong misery. 0ill nanomedicine be more o" the same* Any reader over the age o", say, thirty +no)s ho) things start to go )rong' an ache here, a )rin+le there, the loss o" an ability. @ver the decades, the #hysical $%ality o" li"e declines "aster and "asterIthe limits o" )hat the body can do become stricterI%ntil the limits are those o" a

hos#ital bed. !he healing abilities )e have )hen yo%ng seem to "ade a)ay. 8odern medical #ractice ex#ends the b%l+ o" its e""ort on s%ch things as intensive care %nits, dragging o%t the last "e) years o" li"e )itho%t restoring health. !r%ly advanced medicine )ill be able to restore and s%##lement the yo%th"%l ability to heal. 5ts cost )ill de#end on the cost o" #rod%cing things more intricate than any )e have seen be"ore, the cost o" #rod%cing com#%ters, sensors, and the li+e by the trillions. !o %nderstand the #ros#ects "or medicine, li+e those "or science and ind%stry, )e need to ta+e a closer loo+ at the cost o" molec%lar man%"act%ring.

Cha#ter ? +he .#iral o* Ca#ability 5n earlier cha#ters, )e have ste##ed "or)ard and bac+)ard thro%gh time. !he last ste# )as a big one, lea#ing "rom small laboratory devices to the high&ca#acity ind%strial "acility o" the Desert Aose scenario. @%r narrative crossed this ga# in a single lea#, b%t the )orld )on,t. !o %nderstand ho) nanotechnology might %n"old, it ma+es sense to loo+ at some o" its easier and more di""ic%lt a##lications. !he res%lt )on,t be a timetable, or even a series o" milestones, b%t it sho%ld give a better #ict%re o" )hat )e can ex#ect as nanotechnology develo#s "rom sim#le, cr%de, costly beginnings to a state o" greater so#histication and lo)er cost. I'pro.ing *uality 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e better #rod%cts #ossible. 0e,re li+ely to see some early a##lications in at least t)o areas' stronger materials and "aster com#%ters. /trong materials are sim#le, and )ill be hard to #ass %#. Com#%ters are more com#lex, b%t the #ayo"" )ill be enormo%s. Co #uters !he com#%ter ind%stry has been %nder steady #ress%re to ma+e com#%ter chi#s ever smaller. As si.es have shr%n+, costs have "allen )hile e""iciency and ca#abilities have increased. !he #ress%re to contin%e this #rocess #%shes in the direction o" nanotechnologyB it may even be one o" the ma-or motivations behind develo#ing the technology. Hohn 0al+er, a "o%nder o" A%todes+, ex#lains' 9Even technologies )ith enormo%s #otential can lie dormant %nless there are signi"icant #ayo""s along the )ay to re)ard those )ho #ioneer them. !hat,s one o" the reasons integrated circ%its develo#ed so ra#idlyB each advance "o%nd an immediate mar+et )illing to a##ly it and enrich the innovator that created it. 9Does molec%lar engineering have this +ind o" #ayo""* 5 thin+ it does. Aemembering that )e may be less than ten years a)ay "rom ,hitting the )all, as "ar as scaling o%r existing electronics goes, a great deal o" research is #resently going on in the area o" molec%lar and $%ant%m electronics. !he #ayo"" is easy to calc%late' >o% can b%ild devices one tho%sand times "aster, more energy&e""icient, and chea#er than those )e,re c%rrently %singIat least one h%ndred times better than exotic materials being considered to re#lace silicon )hen it reaches its limits.9 =ederico Ca#asso, head o" the O%ant%m Phenomena and Device Aesearch De#artment at A!T! (ell Dabs, agrees that electronics researchers )ill +ee# #%shing "or smaller devices once silicon,s #otential has been reached. 4e ex#lains that 9at some #oint )e )ill reach di""ic%lties' some #eo#le say at a h%ndred "i"ty nanometers, others thin+ it,s beyond that. 0hat )ill ha##en then* 5t,s hard to thin+ that the electronics ind%stry )ill say, ,/to# here. 0e,ll sto# evolving beca%se )e can,t shrin+ the device., =rom an economic #oint o" vie), in order to s%rvive, an ind%stry has to innovate contin%o%sly.9 !he com#%ter ind%stry,s #%sh to)ard devices o" molec%lar si.e has an air o" inevitability. !oday,s researchers str%ggle to b%ild molec%lar electronics %sing b%l+ techni$%es, )ith no #rod%cts yet in sightB )ith molec%lar mani#%lators, they )ill "inally have the tools they need "or "ast and acc%rate ex#erimentation. @nce s%ccess"%l designs are develo#ed, #ac+aged, and tested, the #ress%re )ill be on to learn to ma+e them in $%antity at lo) cost. !he com#etitive #ress%res )ill be "ierce, beca%se advanced molec%lar electronics )ill be orders of magnitude better than today,s integrated circ%its, %ltimately enabling the constr%ction o" com#%ters )ith trillion"old greater ca#ability. .trong, -ightweight .tructures At the o##osite extreme "rom molec%lar electronicsIcom#lex and at "irst )orth billions o" dollars #er gramIare str%ct%ral materials' )orth only dollars #er +ilogram in most a##lications, b%t m%ch

sim#ler in str%ct%re. @nce molec%lar man%"act%ring becomes inex#ensive, str%ct%ral materials )ill be im#ortant #rod%cts. !hese materials #lay a central role in almost everything aro%nd %s, "rom cars and aircra"t to "%rnit%re and ho%ses. All o" these ob-ects get their si.e, sha#e, and strength "rom a str%ct%ral s+eleton o" some sort. !his ma+es str%ct%ral materials a nat%ral #lace to begin in %nderstanding ho) nanotechnology can im#rove #rod%cts. Cars today are mostly made o" steel, aircra"t o" al%min%m, and b%ildings and "%rnit%re largely o" steel and )ood. !hese materials have a certain 9strength&to&)eight ratio9 2more #ro#erly, a strength& to&density ratio3. !o ma+e cars stronger, they,d have to be heavierB to ma+e them lighter, they,d have to be )ea+er. Clever design can change this relationshi# a little, b%t to change it a lot re$%ires a change o" materials. 8a+ing something heavy is easy' -%st leave a hollo) s#ace, then "ill it )ith )ater, sand, or lead shot. 8a+ing something light and strong is harder, b%t o"ten im#ortant. A%toma+ers try to ma+e cars light)eight, aircra"t man%"act%rers try harder, and )ith s#acecra"t man%"act%rers it is an obsession. Aed%cing mass saves materials and energy. !he strongest materials in %se today are mostly made o" carbon. Kevlar, %sed in racing sails and b%llet#roo" vests, is made o" carbon&rich molec%lar "ibers. Ex#ensive gra#hite com#osites, %sed in tennis rac+ets and -et aircra"t, are made %sing #%re&carbon "ibers. Per"ect "ibers o" carbonIboth gra#hite and diamondI)o%ld be even better, b%t can,t be made )ith today,s technology. @nce molec%lar man%"act%ring gets rolling, tho%gh, s%ch materials )ill be common#lace and inex#ensive. 0hat )ill these materials be li+e* !o #ict%re them, a good #lace to start is )ood. !he str%ct%re o" )ood can vary "rom extremely light and #oro%s, li+e balsa )ood, to denser str%ct%res li+e oa+. 0ood is made by molec%lar machinery in #lants "rom carbon&rich #olymers, mostly cell%lose. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill be able to ma+e materials li+e these, b%t )ith a strength&to&)eight ratio abo%t a h%ndred times that o" mediocre steel, and tens o" times better than the best steel. 5nstead o" being made o" cell%lose, these materials )ill be made o" carbon in "orms li+e diamond. Diamond is em#hasi.ed here not beca%se it is shiny and ex#ensive, b%t beca%se it is strong and #otentially chea#. Diamond is -%st carbon )ith #ro#erly arranged atoms. Com#anies are already learning to ma+e it "rom nat%ral gas at lo) #ress%re. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill be able to ma+e com#lex ob-ects o" the st%"", b%ilt lighter than balsa )ood b%t stronger than steel. Prod%cts made o" s%ch materials co%ld be startling by o%r #resent standards. @b-ects co%ld be made that are identical in si.e and sha#e to those )e ma+e today, b%t sim%ltaneo%sly stronger and 9C #ercent lighter. !his is something to +ee# in mind next time yo%,re l%gging a heavy ob-ect aro%nd. 25" something needs )eight to hold it in #lace, it )o%ld be more convenient to add this ballast )hen the thing is in its #ro#er location than to b%ild in the extra )eight #ermanently.3 (etter str%ct%ral materials )ill ma+e aircra"t lighter, stronger, and more e""icient, b%t )ill have the greatest e""ect on s#acecra"t. !oday, s#acecra"t can barely reach orbit )ith both a sa"ety margin and a cargo. !o get there at all, they have to dro# o"" #arts li+e boosters and tan+s along the )ay, shedding )eight. 0ith strong materials, this )ill change' as in the s#ace&travel&"or&b%siness scenario in Cha#ter 1, s#acecra"t )ill become more li+e aircra"t are today. !hey )ill be r%gged and reliable, and strong eno%gh and light eno%gh to reach s#ace in one #iece. *uickening 2e.elop'ent 5n some areas o" high technologyIs#ace"light has been a notorio%s exam#leIit ta+es years, even decades, to try a ne) idea. !his ma+es #rogress slo) to a cra)l. 5n other areasIso"t)are has been a shining exam#leIne) ideas can be tested in min%tes or ho%rs. /ince the /#ace /h%ttle design )as "ro.en, #ersonal com#%ter so"t)are has come into existence and gone thro%gh several generations o" commercial develo#ment, each )ith many cycles o" b%ilding and testing.

Fast, $nex#ensive +esting Even in the days o" the "irst o#erational molec%lar mani#%lators, ex#erimentation is li+ely to be reasonably "ast. 5ndivid%al chemical ste#s can ta+e seconds or less. Com#lex molec%lar ob-ects co%ld be b%ilt in a matter o" ho%rs. !his )ill let ne) ideas be #%t into #ractice almost as "ast as they can be designed. Dater assemblers )ill be even "aster. At a millionth o" a second #er ste#, they )ill a##roach the s#eed o" com#%ters. And, as nanotechnology mat%res, ex#erimenters )ill have more and more molec%lar instr%ments available to hel# them "ind o%t )hether their devices )or+ or not. =ast constr%ction and "ast testing )ill enco%rage "ast #rogress. At this #oint, the cost o" materials and e$%i#ment "or ex#eriments )ill be trivial. o one today can a""ord to b%ild 8oon roc+ets on a hobby b%dget, b%t they can a""ord to b%ild so"t)are, and many %se"%l #rograms have been the res%lt. !here is no economic reason )hy nanomachines co%ldn,t event%ally be b%ilt )ith a hobby&si.e b%dget, tho%gh there are reasonsIto be disc%ssed in later cha#tersI"or )anting to #lace limits on )hat can be b%ilt. Early .i #licity =inally, established technologies are al)ays #%shing %# against some limitB the easy o##ort%nities have generally been ex#loited. 5n many "ields, the limits are those o" the #ro#erties o" the materials %sed and the cost and #recision o" man%"act%ring. !his is tr%e "or com#%ters, "or s#acecra"t, "or cars, blenders, and shoes. =or so"t)are, the limits are those o" com#%ter ca#acity and o" sheer com#lexity 2)hich is to say, o" h%man intelligence3. A"ter molec%lar man%"act%ring develo#s certain basic abilities, a )hole set o" limits )ill "all, and a )hole range o" develo#ments )ill become #ossible. Dimits set by materials #ro#erties, and by the cost and #recision o" man%"act%ring, )ill be #%shed )ay bac+. Com#etition, easy o##ort%nities, and "ast, lo)&cost ex#erimentation sho%ld combine to yield an ex#losion o" ne) #rod%cts. !his does not mean immediately, and it does not a##ly to all imaginable nanotechnologies. /ome technologies are imaginable and clearly "easible, yet da%ntingly com#lex. /till, the above considerations s%ggest that a )ide range o" advances co%ld ha##en at a bris+ #ace. !he main bottlenec+ might seem to be a shortage o" +no)ledgeable designersIhardly anyone +no)s both chemistry and mechanical designIb%t im#roving com#%ter sim%lations )ill hel#. !hese sim%lations )ill let engineers tin+er )ith molec%lar&machinery designs, absorbing +no)ledge o" chemical r%les )itho%t learning chemistry in the %s%al sense. +li'bing +o'plexity 8a+ing "amiliar #rod%cts "rom im#roved materials )ill increase their sa"ety, #er"ormance, and %se"%lness. 5t )ill also #resent the sim#lest engineering tas+. A greater change, tho%gh, )ill res%lt "rom %n"amiliar #rod%cts made #ossible by ne) man%"act%ring methods. 5n tal+ing abo%t %n"amiliar #rod%cts, a hard&to&ans)er $%estion arises' 0hat )ill #eo#le )ant*

.#ace Prec%rsor science and technologies Cr%cial advance !hreshold ca#ability Early #ractical a##lications Physics /o%nding roc+ets !eams combine and im#rove technologies =irst satellite 0eather, s#y and

Co #uters 8athematics Electronics !eams combine and im#rove technologies =irst com#%ter /cienti"ic calc%lations

Nanotechnology !heoretical chemistry Chemical synthesis !eams combine and im#rove technologies =irst assembler 8olec%lar sensors

comm%nication satellites (rea+thro%gh ca#ability =%rther #ro-ected develo#ments 8ore advanced develo#ments >et more advanced develo#ments Ao%tine, inex#ensive s#ace"light D%nar base, 8ars ex#loration 8ining, develo#ment, settlement o" solar system 5nterstellar "light and settlement "easible

Payroll calc%lations

8olec%lar com#%ting

Po)er"%l mass&mar+et Po)er"%l inex#ensive des+to# com#%ters molec%lar man%"act%ring 0ides#read electronic #%blishing 8a-or a%tomation o" engineering design !rillion"old com#%ter #o)er e) medical abilities e), inex#ensive #rod%cts 4el# )ith com#%ter goals Environmental clean%# 4el# )ith com#%ter goals General tiss%e re#air

Prod%cts are ty#ically made beca%se their reci#ients )ant them. 5n o%r disc%ssions here, i" )e describe something that #eo#le )on,t )ant, then it #robably )on,t get b%ilt, and i" it does get b%ilt, it )ill soon disa##ear. 2!he exce#tionsI"ra%d, coercion, #ersistent mista+esIare im#ortant, b%t in other contexts.3 !o anchor o%r disc%ssion, it ma+es sense to loo+ not at totally ne) #rod%cts, b%t instead at ne) "eat%res "or old #rod%cts, or ne) )ays to #rovide old services. !his a##roach )on,t cover more than a "raction o" )hat is #ossible, b%t )ill start "rom something sensible and #rovide a s#ringboard "or the imagination. As %s%al, )e are describing #ossibilities, not ma+ing #redictions. !he #ossibilities "oc%sed on here arise "rom more com#lex a##lications o" molec%lar man%"act%ringInanotechnological #rod%cts that contain nanomachines )hen they are "inished. Earlier, )e disc%ssed strong materials. o), )e disc%ss some smart materials. . art "aterials !he goal o" ma+ing materials and ob-ects smart isn,t ne)' researchers are already str%ggling to b%ild str%ct%res that can sense internal and environmental conditions and ada#t themselves a##ro#riately. !here is even a Cournal of (ntelligent %aterial Systems and Structures. (y %sing materials that can ada#t their sha#es, sometimes hoo+ed %# to sensors and com#%ters, engineers are starting to ma+e ob-ects they call 9smart.9 !hese are the early ancestors o" the smart materials that molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e #ossible. !oday, )e are %sed to having machines )ith a "e) visible moving #arts. 5n cars, the )heels go aro%nd, the )indshield )i#ers go bac+ and "orth, the antenna may go %# and do)n, the seat belts, mirrors, and steering )heel may be motor&driven. Electric motors are "airly small, "airly inex#ensive, and "airly reliable, so they are "airly common. !he res%lt is machines that are "airly smart and "lexible, in a cl%msy, ex#ensive )ay. 5n the Desert Aose scenario, )e sa) 9tents9 being assembled "rom trillions o" s%bmicrosco#ically small #arts, incl%ding motors, com#%ters, "ibers, and str%ts. !o the na+ed eye, materials made "rom these #arts co%ld seem as smooth and %ni"orm as a #iece o" #lastic, or as richly text%red as )ood or clothIit is all a matter o" the arrangement and a##earance o" the s%bmicrosco#ic #arts. !hese motors and other #arts cost less than a trillionth o" a dollar a#iece. !hey can be $%ite reliable, and good design can ma+e systems )or+ smoothly even i" 1C #ercent o" a trillion motors b%rn o%t. Di+e)ise "or motor&controlling com#%ters and the rest. !he res%lting machines can be very smart and "lexible, com#ared to those o" today, and inex#ensive, too. 0hen materials can be "%ll o" motors and controllers, )hole ch%n+s o" material can be made "lexible and controllable. !he a##lications sho%ld be broad.

.cenario: . art Paint /%r"aces s%rro%nd %s, and h%man&made s%r"acesI)alls, roo"s, and #avementIcover h%ge areas that matter to #eo#le. 4o) can smart materials ma+e a di""erence here* !he revol%tion in technology has come and gone, and yo% )ant to re#aint yo%r )alls. (reathing toxic solvents and #oll%ting )ater by )ashing br%shes have #assed into history, beca%se #aint has been re#laced )ith smarter st%"". !he mid&t)entieth cent%ry had seen considerable #rogress in #aints, es#ecially the develo#ment o" li$%ids that )eren,t $%ite li$%idI they )o%ld s#read )ith a br%sh, b%t didn,t 2st%#idly3 r%n and dri# %nder their o)n )eight. !his )as an im#rovement, b%t the ne) material, 9#a#er#aint,9 is even more coo#erative. Pa#er#aint comes in a box )ith a s#ecial tro)el and #en. !he #a#er#aint itsel" is a dry bloc+ that "eels a lot li+e a bloc+ o" )ood. =ollo)ing the instr%ctions, yo% %se the #en to dra) a line aro%nd the edge o" the area yo% )ant to #aint, #%tting an S in the middle to sho) )here yo% )ant the #aint to go onB the line is made o" nontoxic disa##earing in+, so yo% can slo# it aro%nd )itho%t staining anything. ?sing the tro)el, yo% slice o"" a h%n+ o" #a#er#aintI)hich is easy, beca%se it #arts li+e so"t b%tter to the tro)el, even tho%gh it behaves li+e a solid to everything else. Jery high 5O st%"", that. ext, yo% #ress the h%n+ against the S and start smoothing it o%t )ith the tro)el. Each stro+e s#reads a )ide s)ath o" #a#er#aint, m%ch )ider than the tro)el, b%t al)ays staying )ithin the in+ed line. A "e) s)i#es s#reads it #recisely to the edges, )here%#on it smooths o%t into a %ni"orm layer. 0hy doesn,t it -%st s#read itsel"* Ex#erience sho)ed that c%stomers didn,t mind the e""ort o" ma+ing a "e) s)i#es and #re"erred the added control. !he #a#er#aint consists o" a h%ge n%mber o" nanomachines )ith little )heels "or rolling over one another and little stic+y #ads "or clinging to s%r"aces. Each has a sim#le, st%#id com#%ter on board. Each can signal its neighbors. !he )hole mass o" them clings together li+e an ordinary solid, b%t they can sli# and slide in a controlled )ay )hen signaled. 0hen yo% smooth the tro)el over them, this contact tells them to get moving and s#read o%t. 0hen they hit the line, this tells them to sto#. 5" they don,t hit a line, they go a "e) handbreadths, then sto# any)ay %ntil yo% tro)el them again. 0hen they enco%nter a line on all sides, )ord gets aro%nd, and they -ostle aro%nd to "orm a smooth, %ni"orm layer. Any that get scra#ed o"" are -%st so m%ch loose d%st, b%t they stic+ together $%ite )ell. !his #aint&st%"" doesn,t get anything )et, doesn,t stain, and clings to s%r"aces -%st tightly eno%gh to +ee# it "rom #eeling o"" accidentally. 5" some ex#erimentally minded child starts digging )ith a stic+, ma+es a tear, and #eels some o"", it can be smoothed bac+ again and )ill re-oin as good as ne). !he child may eat a #iece, b%t care"%l reg%lation and testing has ens%red that this is no )orse than eating #lain #a#er, and sa"er than eating a color"%l /%nday ne)s#a#er #age. 8any re"inements are #ossible. /)i#es and #ats o" the tro)el co%ld ma+e areas thic+en or thin, or bridge small holes 2no more /#ac+lingK3. 0ith s%""iciently smart #a#er#aint, and some )ay to indicate )hat it sho%ld do, yo% can have yo%r choice o" text%res. Any good design )ill be )ashable, and a better design )o%ld shed dirt a%tomatically %sing microsco#ic br%shes. Aemoval, o" co%rse, is easy' either yo% ri# and #eel 2no scra#ing needed3, or "ind that tro)el, set the dial on the handle to 9stri#,9 and #o+e the s%r"ace a "e) times. Either )ay, yo% end %# )ith a l%m# ready to #itch into the recycling bin and the same old )all yo% started )ith, bared to sight again. Power Paint Perha#s no #rod%ct )ill ever be made exactly li+e the smart #aint -%st described. 5t )o%ld be disa##ointing i" something better co%ldn,t be made by the time smart #aint is technologically #ossible.

/till, #a#er#aint gives a "eel "or some o" the "eat%res to ex#ect in the ne) smart #rod%cts, "eat%res s%ch as increased "lexibility and better control. 0itho%t loading yet more ca#ability into o%r #aint 2tho%gh there is no reason )hy one couldn*t3, let,s ta+e a loo+ at some other smart #ro#erties one might )ant in a s%r"ace. External )alls, roo"s, and #aving s%r"aces are ex#osed to s%nlight, and s%nlight carries energy. A #roven ability o" molec%lar machinery is the conversion o" s%nlight to stored energy' #lants do it every day. Even no), )e can ma+e solar cells that convert s%nlight into electricity at e""iciencies o" FC #ercent or so. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring co%ld not only ma+e solar cells m%ch chea#er, b%t co%ld also ma+e them tiny eno%gh be incor#orated into the mobile b%ilding bloc+s o" a smart #aint. !o be e""icient, this #aint )o%ld have to be dar+Ithat is, )o%ld have to absorb a lot o" light. (lac+ )o%ld be best, b%t even light colors co%ld generate some #o)er, and e""iciency isn,t everything. @nce the #aint )as a##lied, its b%ilding bloc+s )o%ld #l%g together to #ool their electrical #o)er and deliver it thro%gh some standard #l%g. A thic+er, to%gher "orm o" this sort o" material co%ld be %sed to res%r"ace #avement, generate #o)er, and transmit it over large distances. /ince smart solar&cell #avement co%ld be designed "or im#roved traction and a similar roo"ing material co%ld be designed "or ama.ing lea+&resistance, the st%"" sho%ld be #o#%lar. @n a s%nny day, an area -%st a "e) #aces on a side )o%ld generate a +ilo)att o" electrical #o)er. 0ith good batteries 2and eno%gh re#aved roads and solar&cell roo"ing3, #resent demands "or electrical #o)er co%ld be met )ith no coal b%rning, no oil im#orts, no n%clear #o)er, no hydroelectric dams, and no land ta+en over "or solar #o)er generation #lants. Pretty Paint, (coustic Paint !he glo) o" "ire"lies and dee# sea "ish sho)s that molec%lar devices can convert stored chemical energy into light. All sorts o" common devices sho) that electricity can be converted to light. 0ith molec%lar man%"act%ring, this conversion can be done in thin "ilms, )ith control over the brightness and color o" each microsco#ic s#ot. !his co%ld be %sed "or di""%se lightingIceiling #a#er#aint that glo)s. 0ith more elaborate control, this )o%ld yield the marvel 2horror*3 o" video )all#a#er. 0ith today,s technology, )e are %sed to dis#lays that glo). 0ith molec%lar man%"act%ring, it )ill be e$%ally easy to ma+e dis#lays that -%st change color, li+e a #rinted #age )ith mobile in+. Chameleons and "lat"ish change color by moving colored #articles aro%nd, and nanomachines co%ld do li+e)ise. @n a more molec%lar level, they co%ld %se t%nable dyes. Dive lobsters are a dar+ grayish green, b%t )hen coo+ed t%rn bright red. 8%ch o" this change res%lts "rom the 9ret%ning9 o" a dye molec%le that is bo%nd in a #rotein in the live lobster b%t released by heat. !his basically mechanical change alters its colorB the same #rinci#le can be %sed in nanomachines, b%t reversibly. 4o) a s%r"ace a##ears de#ends on ho) it re"lects or emits light. anomachines and nanoelectronics )ill be able to control this )ithin )ide limits. !hey )ill be able to do li+e)ise "or so%nd, by controlling ho) a s%r"ace moves. 5n a stereo system, a s#ea+er is a movable s%r"ace, and nanomachines are great "or ma+ing things move as desired. 8a+ing a s%r"ace emit high&$%ality so%nd )ill be easy. Almost as easy )ill be s%r"aces that actively "lex to absorb so%nd, so that the bar+ing dog across the street seems to "ade a)ay. . art Cloth Doo+ing "%rther at the h%man environment )e "ind a lot o" cloth and related materials, s%ch as car#eting and shoes. !he textile ind%stry )as at the c%tting edge o" the "irst ind%strial revol%tion, and the next ind%strial revol%tion )ill have its e""ects on textiles. 0ith nanotechnology, even the "inest textile "ibers co%ld have sensors, com#%ters, and motors in their core at little extra cost. =abrics co%ld incl%de sensors able to detect light, heat, #ress%re, moist%re, stress, and )ear, net)or+s o" sim#le com#%ters to integrate this data, and motors and other

nanomechanisms to res#ond to it. @rdinary, everyday things li+e "abric and #adding co%ld be made res#onsive to a #erson,s needsIchanging sha#e, color, text%re, "it, and so "orthI)ith the )eather and a #erson,s #ost%re or sit%ation. !his #rocess co%ld be slo), or it co%ld be "ast eno%gh to res#ond to a gest%re. @ne res%lt )o%ld be gen%ine one&si.e&"its&all clothing 2give or ta+e child si.es3, #er"ectly tailored o"" the rac+, )arm in )inter, cool and dry in s%mmerB in short, nanotechnology co%ld #rovide )hat advertisers have only #romised. Even bog%s advertising gives a cl%e to h%man desires. !hro%gho%t history, the h%man race has #%rs%ed the $%est "or com"ortable shoes. 0ith "%lly ad-%stable materials, the seemingly im#ossible goal o" having shoes that both loo+ good and "eel good sho%ld "inally be achieved. /hoes co%ld +ee# yo%r "eet dry, and )arm exce#t in the Arctic, cool exce#t in the tro#ics, and as com"ortable as they can be )ith a #erson ste##ing on them. . art Furniture Ada#tive str%ct%res )ill be %se"%l in "%rnit%re. !oday, )e have "%rnit%re that ada#ts to the h%man body, b%t it does so in an a)+)ard and incom#lete manner. 5t ada#ts beca%se #eo#le grab c%shions and move them aro%nd. @r a chair ada#ts beca%se it is a hinged contra#tion that gr%dgingly bends and extends in a "e) #laces to s%it a small range o" #re"erred #ositions. @ccasionally, one sees "%rnit%re that allegedly gives a massage, b%t in "act only vibrates. !hese limitations are conse$%ences o" the ex#ense, b%l+iness, cl%msiness, and %nreliability o" s%ch things as moving #arts, motors, sensors, and com#%ters today. 0ith molec%lar man%"act%ring, it )ill be easy to ma+e "%rnit%re "rom smart materials that can ada#t to an individ%al h%man body, and to a #erson,s changing #osition, to consistently give com"ortable s%##ort. /mart c%shions co%ld also do a better -ob o" res#onding to hints in the "orm o" #ats, t%gs, and #%nches. As "or massageIa #iece o" "%rnit%re, no matter ho) advanced, is not the same as a masse%se. /till, a ty#ical massage setting on a smart chair )o%ld not mean today,s 9vibrate medi%m vigoro%sly,9 b%t something closer to 9"ive min%tes o" shiats%.9 (nd .o Forth % % % !his to%r thro%gh o" the #otential o" smart matter has sho)n ho) )e co%ld get )alls that loo+ and so%nd as )e )ish, clothing, shoes, and "%rnit%re o" greater com"ort, and clean solar #o)er. As one might ex#ect, this -%st scratches the s%r"ace. 5" yo% care to thin+ o" "%rther a##lications, here are some gro%nd r%les' Com#onents made by molec%lar man%"act%ring can be many tens o" times stronger than steel, b%t materials made by #l%gging many com#onents together )ill be )ea+er. =or these, strengths in the range o" cotton candy to steel seem achievable. !he com#onents )ill be sensitive to heat, and at high tem#erat%res they )ill brea+ do)n or b%rn. 8any materials )ill be able to s%rvive the tem#erat%re o" boiling )ater, b%t only s#eciali.ed designs )o%ld be oven&sa"e. Color, text%re, and %s%ally so%nd sho%ld be controllable. /%r"aces can be smooth and tightly sealed 2this ta+es some cleverness3. 8otions can be "airly "ast. Po)er has to come "rom some)hereB good so%rces incl%de electricity, stored chemical energy, and light. 5" nanomachines or smart materials are d%n+ed in li$%ids, chemical energy can come "rom dissolved molec%lesB i" they are in the o#en, energy can come "rom lightB i" they are sitting in one #lace, they can be #l%gged into a soc+etB i" they are moving aro%nd in the dar+, they can r%n on batteries "or a )hile, then r%n do)n and $%it. 0ithin these limits, m%ch can be accom#lished. 9/mart9 is a relative term. ?nless yo% )ant to ass%me that #eo#le learn a lot more abo%t intelligence and #rogramming, it is best to ass%me that these materials )ill "ollo) sim#le r%les, li+e those "ollo)ed by #arts o" dra)ings on com#%ter screens. 5n these dra)ings, a #ict%re o" a rectangle can be commanded to s#ro%t handles at its cornersB #%lling a handle stretches or shrin+s the rectangle )itho%t distorting its right&angle corners. An ob-ect made o" smart matter co%ld do li+e)ise in the real )orld' a box co%ld be stretched to a di""erent si.e, then made rigid againB a door in a smart&material )all co%ld have its osition %nloc+ed, its "rame moved a #ace to the le"t, and then be ret%rned to normal %se.

!here seems little reason to ma+e bits o" smart matter inde#endent, sel"&re#licating, or toxic. 0ith care, smart matter sho%ld be sa"er than )hat it re#laces beca%se it )ill be better controlled. /#ray #aint gets all over things and contains noxio%s solventsB the #a#er#aint described above doesn,t. !his )ill be a characteristic di""erence, i" )e exercise o%r %s%al vigilance to enco%rage the #rod%ction o" things that are sa"e and environmentally so%nd. 4alling +osts 5t may be "%n to disc%ss )ondro%s ne) #rod%cts, b%t they )on,t ma+e m%ch di""erence in the )orld i" they are too ex#ensive. (esides, many #eo#le today don,t have decent "ood, clothes, and a roo" over their heads, to say nothing o" "ancy 9nanost%"".9 Costs matter. !here is more to li"e than material goods, b%t )itho%t material goods li"e is miserable and narro). 5" goods are ex#ensive, #eo#le strive "or themB i" goods are ab%ndant, #eo#le can t%rn their attention else)here. /ome o" %s li+e to thin+ that )e are above a concern "or material goods, b%t this seems more common in the )ealthy co%ntries. Do)ering man%"act%ring costs is a m%ndane concern, b%t so are "eeding #eo#le, ho%sing them, and b%ilding se)age systems to +ee# them "rom dying o" cholera and he#atitis. =or all these reasons, "inding )ays to bring do)n #rod%ction costs is a )orthy goal. =or the #oor, "or the environment, and "or the "reeing o" h%man #otential, costs matter dee#ly. Det,s ta+e a closer loo+ at the costs o" molec%lar man%"act%ring. Can *alling costs be realistic8 5n"lation #rod%ces the ill%sion that costs rise, )hen the real story is that the val%e o" money is "alling. 5n the short term, real costs %s%ally don,t change very $%ic+ly, and this can #rod%ce the ill%sion that costs are stable "acts o" nat%re, li+e the la) o" gravity or the la)s o" thermodynamics. 5n the real )orld, tho%gh, most costs have been "alling by a cr%cial meas%re' the amo%nt o" h%man labor needed to ma+e things. Peo#le can a""ord more and more, beca%se their labor, s%##lemented by machines, can #rod%ce more and more. !his change is dramatic meas%red on a scale o" cent%ries, and e$%ally dramatic across the g%l" bet)een !hird 0orld and develo#ed co%ntries. !he rise "rom !hird 0orld to =irst 0orld standards o" living has raised income 2dro##ed the cost o" labor time3 by more than a "actor o" ten. 0hat can molec%lar man%"act%ring do* Darger cost red%ctions have ha##ened, most dramatically in com#%ters. !he cost o" a com#%ter o" a given ability has "allen by ro%ghly a "actor o" 1C every seven years since the 19GCs. 5n total, this is a "actor o" a million. 5" a%tomotive technologies had done li+e)ise, a l%x%ry car )o%ld no) cost less than one cent. 2Personal com#%ter systems still cost h%ndreds o" dollars both beca%se they are "ar more #o)er"%l than the giant machines o" the 19GCs and beca%se the cost o" b%ying any %se"%l com#%ter system incl%des m%ch more than -%st the cost o" a bare com#%ter chi#.3 Costs: ( First Esti ate /ome costs a##ly to a #ind o" #rod%ct, regardless o" ho) many co#ies o" it are made' these incl%de design costs, technology licensing costs, reg%latory a##roval costs, and the li+e. @ther costs a##ly to each unit o" a #rod%ct' these incl%de the costs o" labor, energy, ra) materials, #rod%ction e$%i#ment, #rod%ction sites, ins%rance, and )aste dis#osal. !he #er&+ind costs can become very lo) i" #rod%ction r%ns are large. 5" these costs stay high, it )ill be beca%se #eo#le #re"er ne) #rod%cts "or their ne) bene"its, des#ite the costIhardly ca%se "or com#laint. !he more basic and easier to analy.e costs are #er&%nit costs. A #ict%re to +ee# in mind here is o" Desert Aose 5nd%stries, )here molec%lar machinery does most o" the )or+, and )here #rod%cts are made "rom #arts that are %ltimately made "rom sim#le chemical s%bstances. Det,s consider some cost com#onents.

Energy& 8an%"act%ring at the molec%lar scale need not %se a lot o" energy. Plants b%ild billions o" tons o" highly #atterned material every year %sing available solar energy. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can be e""icient, in the sense that the energy needed to b%ild a bloc+ o" #rod%ct sho%ld be com#arable to the energy released in b%rning an e$%ivalent mass o" )ood or coal. 5" this energy )ere s%##lied as electricity at today,s costs, the energy cost o" man%"act%ring )o%ld be something li+e a dollar #er +ilogram. 0e,ll ret%rn to the cost o" energy later. /aw %aterials& 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )on,t need exotic materials as in#%ts. Plain b%l+ chemicals )ill s%""ice, and this means materials no more exotic than the "%els and "eedstoc+s that are, "or no), derived "rom #etrole%m and biomassIgasoline, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. !hese ty#ically cost tens o" cents #er +ilogram. 5" bi.arre com#o%nds are %sed, they can be made internally. Aare elements co%ld be avoided, b%t might be %se"%l in trace amo%nts. !he total $%antity o" ra) materials cons%med )ill be smaller than in conventional man%"act%ring #rocesses beca%se less )ill be )asted. Ca ital EBui ment and %aintenance& As )e sa) in the Desert Aose scenario, molec%lar man%"act%ring can be %sed to b%ild all o" the e$%i#ment needed "or molec%lar man%"act%ring. 5t seems that this e$%i#mentIeverything "rom large vats to s%bmicrosco#ic s#ecial&#%r#ose assemblersIcan be reasonably d%rable, lasting "or months or years be"ore being recycled and re#laced. 5" the e$%i#ment )ere to cost dollars #er +ilogram, and #rod%ce many tho%sands o" +ilograms o" #rod%ct in its li"e, the cost o" the e$%i#ment )o%ld add little to the cost o" the #rod%ct. Waste 7is osal& !oday,s man%"act%ring )aste is d%m#ed into the air, )ater, and land"ills. !here need be no s%ch )aste )ith molec%lar man%"act%ring. Excess materials o" the +ind no) s#e)ed into the environment co%ld instead be com#letely recycled internally, or co%ld emerge "rom the man%"act%ring #rocess in #%re "orm, ready "or %se in some other #rocess. 5n an advanced #rocess, the only )astes )o%ld be le"tover atoms res%lting "rom a bad mix o" ra) materials. 8ost o" these le"tover atoms )o%ld be ordinary minerals and sim#le gases li+e oxygen, the main 9)aste9 "rom the molec%lar machinery o" #lants. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring #rod%ces no ne) elementsIi" arsenic comes o%t, arsenic m%st have gone in, and the #rocess isn,t to blame "or its existence. Any intrinsically toxic materials o" this sort can at least be #%t in the sa"est "orm )e can devise "or dis#osal. @ne o#tion )o%ld be to chemically bond it into a stable mineral and #%t it bac+ )here it came "rom. -abor& @nce a #lant is o#erating, it sho%ld re$%ire little h%man labor 2)hat #eo#le do )ith their time )ill change, %nless "actories are +e#t r%nning as bi.arre hobbies3. Desert Aose 5nd%stries )as r%n by t)o #eo#le, yet )as described as #rod%cing large $%antities o" varied goods. !he basic molec%lar&scale o#erations o" man%"act%ring have to be a%tomated, since they are too small "or #eo#le to )or+ on. !he other o#erations are "airly sim#le and can be aided by e$%i#ment "or handling materials and in"ormation. S ace& Even a man%"act%ring #lant based on nanotechnology ta+es %# room. 5t )o%ld, ho)ever, be more com#act than "amiliar man%"act%ring #lants, and co%ld be b%ilt in some o%t&o"&the&)ay #lace )ith inex#ensive land. !hese costs sho%ld be small by today,s standards. (nsurance& !his cost )ill de#end on the state o" the la), b%t some com#arisons can be made. 5m#roved sensors and alarms co%ld be made integral #arts o" #rod%ctsB these sho%ld lo)er "ire and the"t #remi%ms. Prod%ct liability costs sho%ld be red%ced by sa"er, more reliable #rod%cts 2)e,ll disc%ss the $%estion o" #rod%ct sa"ety "%rther in Cha#ter 1E3. Em#loyee in-%ry rates )ill be red%ced by having less labor in#%t. /till, the legal system in the ?nited /tates has sho)n a dist%rbing tendency to bloc+ every new ris+, ho)ever small, even )hen this "orces #eo#le to +ee# s%""ering old ris+s, )hich are sometimes h%ge. 2!he s%##ly o" li"esaving vaccines has been threatened in -%st this )ay.3 0hen this ha##ens, )e +ill anonymo%s #eo#le in the name o" sa"ety. 5" this behavior raises ins%rance #remi%ms in a #erverse )ay, it co%ld disco%rage a shi"t to sa"er man%"act%ring technologies. /ince s%ch costs can gro) or shrin+ inde#endent o" the real )orld o" engineering and h%man )el"are, they are beyond o%r ability to estimate. Sales, 7istribution, )raining . . .& !hese costs )ill de#end on the #rod%ct' 5s it as common as

#otatoes, and as sim#le to %se* @r is it rare and com#lex, so that determining )hat yo% need, )here to get it, and ho) to %se it are the main #roblems* !hese service costs are real b%t can be disting%ished "rom costs o" the thing itsel". !o s%mmari.e, molec%lar man%"act%ring sho%ld event%ally lead to lo)er costs. !he initial ex#ense o" develo#ing the technology and s#eci"ic #rod%cts )ill be s%bstantial, b%t the cost o" #rod%ction can be lo). Energy costs 2at #resent #rices3 and materials costs 2ditto3 )o%ld be signi"icant, b%t not enormo%s. !hey )ere $%oted on a #er&+ilogram basis, b%t nanotechnological #rod%cts, being made o" s%#erior materials, )ill o"ten )eigh only a "raction o" )hat "amiliar #rod%cts do. 2(allast, )ere it needed, )ill be dirt&chea#.3 E$%i#ment costs, land costs, )aste&dis#osal costs, and labor costs can be lo) by the very nat%re o" the technology. Costs o" design, reg%lation, and ins%rance )ill de#end strongly on h%man tastes and are beyond #redicting. (asic #rod%cts, li+e clothing and ho%sing, can become inex#ensive %nless )e do something to +ee# them costly. As the cost o" im#roved sa"ety "alls, there )ill be less reason to acce#t %nsa"e #rod%cts. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring %ses #rocesses as controlled and e""icient as the molec%lar #rocesses in #lants. 5ts #rod%cts co%ld be as inex#ensive as #otatoes. !his may so%nd to good to be tr%e 2and there are do)nsides, as )e,ll disc%ss3, b%t )hy sho%ldn,t it be tr%e* /ho%ldn,t )e ex#ect large changes to come )ith the re#lacement o" modern technology* ( Cycle o* Falling Costs !he above estimate made a conservative ass%m#tion abo%t "%t%re costs' that energy and materials )ill cost then )hat they do no), be"ore molec%lar man%"act%ring has become available. !hey )on,t, beca%se lo)er costs lead to lo)er costs. Det,s say that ma+ing one +ilogram o" #rod%ct by molec%lar man%"act%ring re$%ires one dollar "or a +ilogram o" ra) materials and "o%r dollars "or a genero%s "orty +ilo)att&ho%rs o" energy. !hese are ty#ical #resent&day #rices "or materials and electrical energy. Ass%me, "or the moment, that other costs are small. @ne o" the res%lting "ive&dollar&#er&+ilogram #rod%cts can be solar cell #aint s%itable "or a##lying to #aved roads. A layer o" #aint a "e) millionths o" a meter thic+ )o%ld cost abo%t "ive cents #er s$%are meter to #rod%ce, and )o%ld generate eno%gh energy to ma+e another s$%are meter o" #aint in less than a )ee+, even allo)ing "or nighttime and moderate clo%d cover. !he so&called energy #aybac+ time )o%ld th%s be short. Det,s ass%me that this smart #aint costs as m%ch to s#read and hoo+ %# as it does to ma+e, and that )e demand that it #ay "or itsel" in a single month, so )e charge ten cents #er s$%are meter #er month. At that rate, the cost o" solar energy "rom res%r"aced roads )o%ld be ro%ghly XC.CCG #er +ilo)att ho%rIless than a t)entieth the energy cost ass%med in the initial #rod%ction&cost estimate. (y itsel", this ma+es the cost o" #rod%ction "all to a "raction o" )hat it )as be"ore. 8ost o" that remaining "raction consists o" the cost o" materials. (%t the #rod%cts o" nanotechnology )ill mostly be made o" carbon 2i" #resent ex#ectations are any g%ide3, and carbon dioxide is too ab%ndant in the atmos#here these days. 0ith energy so chea#, the atmos#here can be %sed as so%rce o" carbon 2and o" hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen3. !he #rice o" carbon )o%ld be a "e) cents #er +ilogramIro%ghly a t)entieth the original #rice ass%med "or ra) materials. (%t no), both energy and ra) materials are a t)entieth the original #rice, and so the #rod%cts become chea#er, incl%ding the energy&#rod%cing #rod%cts and the ra)&materialI#rod%cing 2atmos#here&cleaning3 #rod%cts.... !he above scenario is sim#le, b%t it seems realistic in its basic o%tlines' lo)er costs can lead to lo)er costs. 4o) "ar this #rocess can go is hard to estimate #recisely, b%t it co%ld go "ar indeed.

Power +oo Chea# +o "eter8 !his arg%ment )ill remind some readers o" an old claimIthat n%clear energy )o%ld lead to 9#o)er too chea# to meter.9 !his assertion, attrib%ted to the early n%clear era, has #assed into "ol+lore as a )arning to be s+e#tical o" technologists #romising "ree goodies. Does the )arning a##ly here* Anyone claiming that something is "ree doesn,t really %nderstand economics. ?sing something al)ays has a cost e$%al to the most val%able alternative %se "or the thing. Choosing one alternative sacri"ices another, and that sacri"ice is the cost. As economist Philli# K. /alin says, 9!here,s no s%ch thing as a "ree o##ort%nity,9 since o##ort%nities al)ays cost 2at least3 time and attention. anotechnology )ill not mean "ree goodies. (%t, one might arg%e, n%clear #o)er hasn,t even been inex#ensive. 5" technologists co%ld be so )rong bac+ then, )hy believe a similar arg%ment today* 0e are ha##y to re#ort that the arg%ments aren,t similar' any arg%ment "or 9n%clear #o)er too chea# to meter9 had to be abs%rd even given the #nowledge at the time, and o%r arg%ment isn,t. %clear reactors boil )ater to ma+e steam to t%rn t%rbines to t%rn generators to drive electrical #o)er thro%gh #o)er lines to trans"ormers to local #o)er lines to ho%ses, "actories, and so "orth. !he )ildest o#timist co%ld never have claimed that n%clear #o)er )as a "ree so%rce o" anything more than heat, and a realist )o%ld have added in the cost o" the reactor e$%i#ment, "%el, )aste dis#osal, ha.ards, and the rest. Even o%r )ild o#timist )o%ld have had to incl%de the cost o" b%ilding the boiler, the t%rbines, the generators, the #o)er lines, and the trans"ormers, and the cost o" maintenance on all these. !hese costs )ere +no)n to be a ma-or #art o" the cost o" #o)er, so "ree heat )o%ldn,t have meant "ree #o)er. !h%s, the claim )as abs%rd the day it )as madeInot merely in hindsight. 5n the early 19<Cs, Alvin 0einberg, head o" the @a+ Aidge ational Daboratory, )as a strong advocate o" n%clear #o)er, and arg%ed that it )o%ld #rovide 9chea# energy.9 4e )as o#timistic, b%t did his s%ms. =irst, he ass%med that n%clear&#o)er #lants co%ld be b%ilt a little more chea#ly than coal&"ired #o)er #lants o" the same si.e. !hen he ass%med that the cost o" "%el, )aste dis#osal, o#erations, and maintenance "or n%clear #lants )o%ld be not m%ch more than the cost o" o#erations and maintenance alone "or coal #lants. !hen he ass%med that they might last "or more than thirty years. =inally, he ass%med that they )o%ld be #%blicly o#erated, tax "ree at lo) interest 2)hich merely moves costs else)here3 and that a"ter thirty years the cost o" the e$%i#ment )o%ld be )ritten o"" 2)hich is an acco%nting "iction3. 0ith all o" that, he derived a #o)er cost that 9might be9 as lo) as one half the cost o" the chea#est coal&"ired #lant he mentions. 4e )as clearly an o#timist, b%t he didn,t come close to arg%ing "or #o)er too chea# to meter. -ow 2ut Not @ero Costs Peo#le have cried 90ol"K9 be"ore abo%t ne) technologies leading to over)helming ab%ndance. 5t )as said o" n%clear #o)er, and o" steam #o)er be"ore it, and #erha#s o" )ater )heels, the horse, the #lo%gh, and the chi##ed roc+. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring is di""erent beca%se it is a ne) )ay to ma+e almost anything, incl%ding more o" the e$%i#ment needed to do the man%"act%ring. !here has never been anything $%ite li+e this be"ore. !he basic arg%ment "or lo) cost #rod%ction is this' 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill be able to ma+e almost anything )ith little labor, land, or maintenance, )ith high #rod%ctivity, and )ith modest re$%irements "or materials and energy. 5ts #rod%cts )ill themselves be extremely #rod%ctive, as energy #rod%cers, as materials collectors, and as man%"act%ring e$%i#ment. !here has never been a technology )ith this combination o" characteristics, so historical analogies m%st be %sed )ith care. Perha#s the best analogy is this' 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill do "or matter #rocessing )hat the com#%ter has done "or in"ormation #rocessing. !here )ill al)ays be limiting costs, beca%se reso%rcesI)hether energy, matter, or design s+ill Ial)ays have some alternative %se. Costs )ill not "all to .ero, b%t it seems that they co%ld "all very lo) indeed.

Cha#ter A Providing the 2asics, and "ore !he h%ngry, the homeless, and the h%nted have little time or energy to devote to h%man relations or #ersonal develo#ment. =ood, shelter, and sec%rity are not everything, b%t they are basic. 8aterial ab%ndance is #erha#s the best +no)n )ay to b%ild a contem#t "or material things and a concern "or )hat lies beyond. 5n that s#irit, let %s ta+e a "%rther loo+ at #roviding hea#s o" basic material )ealth )here today there is #overty. !he idea o" bringing everyone in the )orld %# to a decent standard o" living loo+s %to#ian today. !he )orld,s #oor are n%mero%s and the )ealthy are "e), and yet the Earth,s reso%rces are already strained by o%r cr%de ind%strial and agric%lt%ral technologies. =or the 196Cs and 19;Cs, )ith a gro)ing a)areness o" the environmental im#act o" h%man #o#%lation and #oll%tion, many #eo#le have beg%n to )restle )ith the s#ecter o" declining )ealth. =e) have allo)ed themselves to consider )hat it might be li+e to live in a )orld )ith "ar greater material )ealth beca%se it has seemed im#ossible. Any disc%ssion o" s%ch things )ill inevitably have a )hi"" o" the 197Cs or 19<Cs abo%t it' Gee )hi., )e can have s%#ercars and (etter Diving !hro%gh 2a s%bstit%te "or conventional3 ChemistryK 5n the long r%n, %nless #o#%lation gro)th is limited, it )ill be im#ossible to maintain a decent standard o" living "or everyone. !his is a basic "act, and to ignore it )o%ld be to destroy o%r "%t%re. >et )ithin sight is a time in )hich the )orld,s #oorest can be raised to a material standard o" living that )o%ld be the envy o" the )orld,s richest today. !he +ey is e""icient, lo)&cost #rod%ction o" high&$%ality goods. 0hether this )ill be %sed to achieve the goals )e describe is more than -%st a $%estion o" technology. 4ere, as in the next t)o cha#ters, )e contin%e to "oc%s on ho) the ne) technologies can serve #ositive goals. !here is a lot to say, and it needs to be said, in #art beca%se #ositive goals can in some meas%re dis#lace negative goals. 0e as+ #atience o" those readers bothered by )hat may seem an o#timistic tone, and as+ that they imagine the a%thors to share their "ears that #o)er"%l technologies )ill be ab%sed, that #ositive goals may end in r%in, that a material #aradise may yet harbor h%man misery. Cha#ters 11 and 1E )ill disc%ss limits, accidents, and ab%se. Third World Nanotechnology 0here )ealth is concerned, the least develo#ed co%ntries #resent the hardest case. Can a ca#ability as advanced as nanotechnology, based on molec%lar machinery, be o" %se in the !hird 0orld* !he ans)er m%st be yes. Agric%lt%re is the bac+bone o" !hird 0orld economies today, and agric%lt%re is based on the nat%rally occ%rring molec%lar machines in )heat, rice, yams, and the li+e. !he !hird 0orld is short on e$%i#ment and s+ills. 25t o"ten has governmental #roblems as )ell, b%t that is another story.3 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e e$%i#ment inex#ensive eno%gh "or the #oor to b%y or "or aid agencies to give a)ay. !his incl%des e$%i#ment "or ma+ing more e$%i#ment, so de#endency co%ld be red%ced. As "or s+ills, basic molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill re$%ire little labor o" any +ind, and a little s+ill )ill go a long )ay. As the technology advances, more and more o" the #rod%cts can be easy&to&%se smart materials. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill enable the #oorest co%ntries to by#ass the di""ic%lt and dirty #rocess o" the ind%strial revol%tion. 5t can ma+e #rod%cts that are less ex#ensive and easier to %se than yams or rice or goats or )ater b%""alo. And )ith #rod%cts li+e chea# s%#ercom#%ters )ith h%ge databases o" )riting and animation vie)ed thro%gh F&D color dis#lays, it can even hel# s#read +no)ledge. anotechnology,s role in hel#ing the #oorest nations )on,t be on the minds o" the "irst develo#ersIthey,ll be in government and commercial labs in the )ealthiest nations, #%rs%ing #roblems o" concern to #eo#le there. 4istory, tho%gh, is "%ll o" %nintended conse$%ences, and some are "or the better.

+onstruction and 5ousing (%ilding large ob-ects is basic to solving #roblems o" ho%sing and trans#ortation. /mart materials can hel#. !oday, b%ildings are ex#ensive to constr%ct, ex#ensive to re#lace, and ex#ensive to ma+e "ire#roo", tornado&#roo", earth$%a+e&#roo", and so "orth. 8a+ing b%ildings tall is ex#ensiveB ma+ing )alls so%nd#roo" is ex#ensiveB b%ilding %ndergro%nd is ex#ensive. E""orts to relieve city congestion o"ten "o%nder on the high cost o" b%ilding s%b)ays, )hich can amo%nt to h%ndreds o" millions o" dollars #er mile. (%ilding codes and #olitics #ermitting, nanotechnology )ill ma+e #ossible revol%tions in the constr%ction o" b%ildings. /%#erior materials )ill ma+e it easy to constr%ct tall 2or dee#3 b%ildings to "ree %# land, and strong b%ildings that can ride o%t the greatest earth$%a+e )itho%t harm. (%ildings can be made so energy&e""icient and so good at %sing the solar energy "alling on them that most are net energy #rod%cers. 0hat is more, smart materials can ma+e it easy to b%ild and modi"y com#lex str%ct%res, s%ch as )alls "%ll o" )indo)s, )iring, #l%mbing, data net)or+s, and the li+e. =or a concrete exam#le that sho)s the #rinci#le, let,s #ict%re )hat smart #i#es co%ld be li+e. Det,s say that yo% )ant to install a "old&do)n sin+ in the corner o" yo%r bedroom. !he ne) materials ma+e "old&do)n sin+s #ractical, and in a ho%se made o" advanced smart materials, -%st stic+ing one on the )all )o%ld be eno%ghIthe #l%mbing )o%ld rearrange itsel". (%t this is an old, #re& brea+thro%gh ho%se, so the sin+ is a retro"it. !o do this home&handi)or+ #ro-ect, yo% b%y several boxes "%ll o" inex#ensive t%bing, !&-oints, valves, and "ixt%res in a variety o" si.es, all as light as )ood veneer and "eeling li+e so"t r%bber. !he biggest #ractical #roblem )ill be to ma+e a hole "rom an existing )ater #i#e and drain#i#e to )here yo% )ant the sin+. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can #rovide excellent #o)er tools to ma+e the holes, and smart #aint and #laster to cover them again, b%t the details de#end on ho) yo%r ho%se is b%ilt. !he smart #l%mbing system does hel#, o" co%rse. 5" yo% )ant to r%n the drain line thro%gh the attic, b%ilt&in #%m#s )ill ma+e s%re that the )ater "lo)s #ro#erly. !he "lexibility o" the #i#es ma+es it m%ch easier to r%n them aro%nd c%rves and corners. Do)&cost #o)er ma+es it #ractical "or the sin+ to have a "lo)&thro%gh )ater heater, so yo% only need to r%n a cold&)ater #i#e to have both hot and cold )ater. All the #arts go together as easily as a child,s bloc+s, and seem abo%t as "limsy and li+ely to lea+. 0hen yo% t%rn it on, tho%gh, the microsco#ic com#onents o" the #i#es loc+ together and become as strong as steel. And smart #l%mbing doesn*t lea+. 5" yo%r ho%se )ere made o" smart materials, li+e most o" the ho%sing in the !hird 0orld these days, li"e )o%ld have been easier. ?sing a s#ecial tro)el, )all str%ct%res )o%ld be re)or+ed li+e so"t clay, doing their str%ct%ral -ob all the )hile. /etting %# a #l%mbing system "rom scratch )ith this st%"" is easy, and hard to do )rong. Drin+ing )ater #i#es )on,t connect to )aste)ater #i#es, so drin+ing )ater can,t be accidentally contaminated. Drains )on,t clog, beca%se they can clean themselves better than a rotary steel blade ever co%ld. 5" yo% r%n eno%gh #i#es "rom everything to everything else, b%ilt&in #%m#s )ill ma+e s%re that )ater "lo)s in the right direction )ith ade$%ate #ress%re. /mart #l%mbing is one exam#le o" a general #attern. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can event%ally ma+e com#lex #rod%cts at lo) cost, and those com#lex #rod%cts can be sim#ler to %se than anything )e have today, "reeing o%r attention "or other concerns. (%ildings can become easy to ma+e and easy to change. !he basic conveniences o" the modern )orld, and more, can be carried to the ends o" the earth and installed by the #eo#le there to s%it their tastes. 4ood 0orld)ide "ood #rod%ction has been o%t#acing #o#%lation gro)th, yet h%nger contin%es. 5n recent years, "amine has o"ten had #olitical roots, as in Ethio#ia )here the r%lers aim to starve

o##onents into s%bmission. /%ch #roblems are beyond a sim#le technological sol%tion. !o avoid getting headaches, )e,ll also ignore the #olitics o" "arm #rice&s%##ort #rograms, )hich raise "ood #rices )hile #eo#le are going h%ngry. All )e can s%ggest here is a )ay to #rovide "resh "ood at lo)er cost )ith red%ced environmental im#act. =or decades, "%t%rists have #redicted the coming o" synthetic "oods. /ome sort o" molec%lar& man%"act%ring #rocess co%ld do%btless ma+e s%ch things )ith the %s%al lo) costs, b%t this doesn,t so%nd a##eti.ing, so )e,ll ignore the idea. 8ost agric%lt%re today is ine""icientIan environmental disaster. 8odern agric%lt%re is "amed "or )asting )ater and #oll%ting it )ith synthetic "ertili.ers, and "or s#reading herbicides and #esticides over the landsca#e. >et the greatest environmental im#act o" agric%lt%re is its sheer cons%m#tion o" land. 5n the American East, ancient "orests disa##eared %nder the ax, in #art to s%##ly )ood, in #art to clear land. !he #rairies o" the 0est disa##eared %nder the #lo). Aro%nd the )orld, this trend contin%es. !he technology o" the ax, the "ire, and the #lo) is chie"ly res#onsible "or the destr%ction o" rain "orests today. A gro)ing #o#%lation )ill tend to t%rn every #rod%ctive ecosystem into some sort o" "armland or gra.ing land, i" )e let it. o technological "ix can solve the long&term #roblem o" #o#%lation gro)th. onetheless, )e can roll bac+ the #roblem o" the loss o" land, yet increase "ood s%##lies. @ne a##roach is intensive greenho%se agric%lt%re. Every +ind o" #lant has its o#tim%m gro)ing conditions, and those conditions are "ar di""erent "rom those "o%nd in most "armland d%ring most o" the year. Plants gro)ing o%tdoors "ace insect #ests, %nless do%sed )ith #esticide, and lo) levels o" n%trients, %nless do%sed )ith "ertili.er. 5n greenho%ses #atrolled by 9nano"lys)atters9 able to eliminate invading insects, #lants )o%ld be #rotected "rom #ests and co%ld be #rovided )ith n%trients )itho%t contaminating gro%nd)ater or r%no"". 8ost #lants #re"er higher h%midity than most climates #rovide. 8ost #lants #re"er higher, more %ni"orm tem#erat%res than are ty#ically "o%nd o%tdoors. 0hat is more, #lants thrive in high levels o" carbon dioxide. @nly greenho%ses can #rovide #est #rotection, am#le n%trients, h%midity, )armth, and carbon dioxide all together and )itho%t reengineering the Earth. !a+en together, these "actors ma+e a huge di""erence in agric%lt%ral #rod%ctivity. Ex#eriments )ith intensive greenho%se agric%lt%re, #er"ormed by the Environmental Aesearch Dab in Ari.ona, sho) that an area o" E7C s$%are metersIabo%t the si.e o" a tennis co%rtIcan raise eno%gh "ood "or a #erson, year in and year o%t. 0ith molec%lar man%"act%ring to ma+e inex#ensive, reliable e$%i#ment, the intensive labor o" intensive agric%lt%re can be a%tomated. 0ith technology li+e the de#loyable 9tents9 and smart materials )e have described, greenho%se constr%ction can be inex#ensive. =ollo)ing the standard arg%ment, )ith e$%i#ment costs, labor costs, materials costs, and so "orth, all ex#ected to be lo), greenho%se&gro)n "oods can be inex#ensive. 0hat does this mean "or the environment* 5t means that the h%man race co%ld "eed itsel" )ith ordinary, nat%rally gro)n, #esticide&"ree "oods )hile ret%rning more than 9C #ercent o" today,s agric%lt%ral land to )ilds. 0ith a genero%s "ive h%ndred s$%are meters #er #erson, the ?./. #o#%lation )o%ld re$%ire only F #ercent o" #resent ?./. "arm acreage, "reeing 96 #ercent "or other %ses, or "or a grad%al ret%rn to )ilderness. 0hen "armers are able to gro) high&$%ality "oodst%""s inex#ensively, in a "raction o" the room that they re$%ire today, they )ill "ind more demand "or their land to be tended as a #ar+ or )ilderness than as a corn"ield. =arm -o%rnals can be ex#ected to carry articles advising on techni$%es "or ra#id and esthetic restoration o" "orest and grassland, and on ho) best to accommodate the desires o" the discriminating nat%re lover and conservationist. Even 9%n#o#%lar9 land )ill tend to become #o#%lar )ith #eo#le see+ing solit%de. !he economics o" assembler&based man%"act%ring )ill remove the incentive to ma+e greenho%ses chea#, %gly, and boxyB the only reason to b%ild that )ay today is the high cost o" b%ilding anything at all. And )hile today,s greenho%ses s%""er "rom viral and "%ngal in"estations, these co%ld be eradicated "rom #lants in the same )ay they )o%ld be "rom the h%man body, as )ill be described later. A #roblem "aced by today,s greenho%sesIoverheatingIco%ld be dealt )ith by %sing heat

exchangers, thereby conserving the care"%lly balanced inside atmos#here. =inally, i" it sho%ld t%rn o%t that a little bit o" bad )eather im#roves the taste o" tomatoes, that, too, co%ld be #rovided, since there )o%ld be no reason to be "anatical abo%t sheer e""iciency. +o''unications !oday, telecomm%nications systems have shar#ly limited ca#acity and are ex#ensive to ex#and. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill dro# the #rice o" the 9boxes9 in telecomm%nications systemsIthings s%ch as s)itching systems, com#%ters, tele#hones, and even the "abled video#hone. Cables made o" smart materials can ma+e these devices easy to install and easy to connect together. Aeg%latory agencies )illing, yo% might someday be able to b%y inex#ensive s#ools o" material resembling +ite string, and other s#ools o" material resembling ta#e, then %se them to -oin a )orld data net)or+. Either +ind o" strand can con"ig%re its core into a good&$%ality o#tical "iber, )ith s#ecial #rovisions "or going aro%nd bends. 0hen r%bbed together, #ieces o" string )ill "%se together, or "%se to a #iece o" ta#e. Pieces o" ta#e do li+e)ise. !o hoo+ %# to the net)or+, yo% r%n string or ta#e "rom yo%r tele#hone or other data terminal to the nearest #oint that is already connected. 5" yo% live dee# in a tro#ical rain "orest, r%n a string to the village satellite lin+. !hese data&cable materials incl%de am#li"iers, nanocom#%ters, s)itching nodes, and the rest, and they come loaded )ith so"t)are that 9+no)s9 ho) to act to transmit data reliably. 5" yo%,re )orried that a line may brea+, r%n three in di""erent directions. Even one line co%ld carry "ar more data than all the channels in a television cable #%t together. Transportation Getting aro%nd $%ic+ly re$%ires vehicles and some)here "or them to travel. !he old 197Cs vision o" #rivate helico#ters )o%ld be technically #ossible )ith inex#ensive, high&$%ality man%"act%ring, chea# energy, and a bit o" im#rovement in a%to#ilots and air&tra""ic controlIb%t )ill #eo#le really tolerate that m%ch -%n+ roaring across the s+y* =ort%nately, there is an alternative both to this and to b%ilding ever more roads. Going Underground ear the s%r"ace o" the Earth, there is as m%ch room %ndergro%nd as there is above it. !his is %s%ally ignored, beca%se the room is "%ll o" dirt, roc+, #ress%ri.ed )ater, and the li+e. Digging is ex#ensive. Digging long, dee# t%nnels is even more ex#ensive. !his ex#ense, ho)ever, is mostly in the cost o" e$%i#ment, materials, and energy. !%nneling machines are in )ide %se today, and molec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e them more e""icient and less ex#ensive. !he energy to o#erate them )ill be no great #roblem, and smart materials can line t%nnels as "ast as they are d%g, )ith little or no labor. anotechnology )ill o#en the lo) "rontier. 0ith a little care, the environmental im#act o" a dee# t%nnel can be trivial. 5nstead o" solid roc+ "ar belo) the s%r"ace, there is roc+ )ith a sealed t%nnel r%nning thro%gh it. othing nearby need be dist%rbed. !%nnels avoid both the aesthetic im#act o" a s+y "%ll o" noisy aircra"t and the environmental im#act o" #aving stri#s o" landsca#e. !his )ill ma+e them less ex#ensive than roads, and they can, i" desired, be more common than roads in the develo#ed )orld today. !hey )ill even #ermit "aster trans#ortation.

+a'ing the .ubway Ha#an and Germany are actively develo#ing magnetic trains, li+e those in the Desert Aose scenario. !hese avoid the limitations o" steel )heels on steel rails by %sing magnetic "orces to 9"ly9 the train along a s#ecial trac+. 8agnetic trains can reach aircra"t s#eeds at gro%nd level. @n long r%ns thro%gh evac%ated t%nnels, they can reach s#acecra"t s#eeds, traveling global distances in an ho%r or so 2less, i" #assengers are )illing to tolerate s%bstantial acceleration3. /ystems li+e this can give 9ta+ing the s%b)ay9 a ne) meaning. Docal trans#ortation )o%ld be at "ast a%tomotive s#eeds, b%t long&distance trans#ortation )o%ld be "aster than the Concorde. 0ith s%#ercond%cting electrical systems, "ast s%b)ays )o%ld be more energy e""icient than today,s slo) mass transit. Getting &our Car =or decades, #eo#le have #ro#osed re#lacing a%tomobiles )ith some "orm o" mass& trans#ortation system, and it seems that cost revol%tions 2incl%ding inex#ensive t%nneling3 may "inally ma+e this #ractical. (e"ore -%n+ing the car, tho%gh, it,s )orth seeing ho) it might be im#roved. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e almost anything better. A%tomobiles can be made stronger and sa"er, lighter, higher #er"ormance, and higher e""iciency, )hile getting excellent mileage and b%rning clean, inex#ensive "%els, #erha#s in "%el cells #o)ering $%iet electric motors. ?sing aerodynamic "orces to hold the car to the road, there,s no reason )hy a com"ortable #assenger car sho%ldn,t be able to deliver %ncom"ortable, drag&racer acceleration. !o imagine a chea# car b%ilt )ith molec%lar man%"act%ring, "irst imagine loading it )ith all the attractive "eat%res that yo%,ve ever heard #ro#osed. !his incl%des everything "rom today,s sel"& ad-%sting seats and mirrors, excellent so%nd systems, and s#ecially t%ned steering and s%s#ension systems, thro%gh a%tomated navigation dis#lays, emergency bra+ing, and reliable s%#er&d%#er airbags. o), instead o" -%st having the #osition o" the seats, mirrors, and so "orth ad-%st to a driver, as some cars do today, o%r smart&material car can also ad-%st its si.e, sha#e, and color, "acing o)ners )ith choices s%ch as, 90hat sho%ld o%r car loo+ li+e "or this occasion*9 !hose see+ing an image o" solid conservatism and )ealth )on,t drive s%ch chea# carsB they )ill ris+ their nec+s in a certi"ied anti$%e car, made "rom the traditional steel, #aint, and r%bber. 5" environmental reg%lations #ermit it, the car might even have a gen%ine gasoline&b%rning engine. !he latter can no do%bt be cleaned %# by "ancy nanotechnology&based emission&control systems. 1#ening the .#ace Frontier @%r trans#ortion system today e""ectively ends in the %##er atmos#here. !ravel beyond still ta+es the "orm o" 9historic missions.9 !here is no reason "or this sit%ation to contin%e "or long, once molec%lar man%"act%ring becomes )ell established. !he cost o" s#ace"light is high beca%se s#acecra"t are h%ge, "ragile things, made in s%ch small n%mbers that they,re almost hand&cra"ted. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill re#lace today,s delicate monsters )ith r%gged, mass&#rod%ced vehicles 2)hich, )ith greater e""iciency, needn,t be so large3. !he vehicles )ill cost little, b%t the energy* !oday, the energy cost o" a tic+et to orbit in an e""icient vehicle )o%ld be less than one h%ndred dollars. Do) cost vehicles and energy )ill dro# the total cost to a "raction o" this. 0e )ill +no) that s#ace"light has become inex#ensive )hen #eo#le see the Earth as -%st a small #art o" the )orld, and %nderstand in their bones that s#ace reso%rces ma+e contin%ed ex#loitation o" Earth,s reso%rces %nnecessary. 5n the long r%n, e""icient, clean, lo)&cost man%"act%ring can trans"orm the )ay h%man beings a""ect the Earth by their #resence. Even stay&at&home h%mans )ill be better able to heal the damage they have done.

Cha#ter B Restoring the Environ ent !he 196Cs sa) a revol%tion in 0estern attit%des to)ard the nat%ral environment. Concern )ith #oll%tion, de"orestation, and s#ecies extinction ex#loded. 0ith the rise o" these concerns came an ambivalent attit%de to)ard technology and the )ealth it )as #rod%cing' some said that h%man beings are destr%ctive to the environment in direct #ro#ortion to their #o)er. !his immediately s%ggested that technology and higher living standards )ere bad, being inherently destr%ctive. 90ealth9 came to im#ly environmental destr%ction. !he revol%tion in attit%des to)ard the environment has changed the idea o" )ealth. @%r national statistics may not re"lect itInot every last citi.en or #olitician may agreeIb%t the conce#t that gen%ine )ealth incl%des not -%st ho%ses and re"rigerators, "actories and machines, cars and roads, b%t also "ields and "orests, o)ls and )olves, clean air, clean )ater, and )ilderness has ta+en dee# root in minds and in #olitics. 9!he )ealth o" nat%re9 has come to incl%de nat%re as a val%e in itsel", not merely as #otential l%mber, ore, and "armland. As a conse$%ence, greater )ealth has beg%n to mean cleaner )ealth, greener )ealth. Aicher co%ntries can a""ord more ex#ensive, more e""icient e$%i#mentIscr%bbers on smo+estac+s, catalytic converters on carsIand so they can #rod%ce goods )ith less environmental im#act. !his trend gives at best a hint o" the "%t%re. Dester 8ilbrath, director o" the Aesearch Program in Environment and /ociety at the /tate ?niversity o" e) >or+ at (%""alo, observes, 9 anotechnologies have the #otential to #rod%ce #lenti"%l cons%mer goods )ith m%ch lo)er thro%gh#%t o" materials and m%ch less #rod%ction o" )aste, th%s red%cing carbon dioxide b%ild%# and red%cing global )arming. !hey also have the #otential to red%ce )aste, es#ecially ha.ardo%s )aste, converting it to nat%ral materials )hich do not threaten li"e.9 Hames Doveloc+ states that 9!he "%t%re co%ld be good i" )e regain a sense o" #%r#ose and embrace the ne) ind%stries based on in"ormation and nanotechnology. !hese add enormo%s val%e to molec%lar&si.ed #ieces o" matter, and need not be a threat to the environment as )ere the heavy #oll%ting ind%stries o" the #ast.9 Making It Easier to !e +lean /ho%ld )e boast o" high technology )hile ind%stry still can,t #rod%ce )itho%t #oll%ting* Poll%tion is a sign o" lo) technology, o" inade$%ate control o" ho) matter is handled. 5n"erior goods and ha.ardo%s )astes are t)o sides o" one #roblem. 0ith #rocesses based on molec%lar man%"act%ring, ind%stries )ill #rod%ce s%#erior goods, and by virt%e o" the same advance in control, )ill have no need o" b%rning, oiling, )ashing )ith solvents and acids, and "l%shing noxio%s chemicals do)n their drains. 8olec%lar&man%"act%ring #rocesses )ill rearrange atoms in controlled )ays, and can neatly #ac+age any %n)anted atoms "or recycling or ret%rn to their so%rce. !his intrinsic cleanliness ins#ired environmentalist !erence 8cKenna, )riting in the Whole Earth /eview, to call nanotechnology 9the most radical o" the green visions.9 !his green vision )ill not be "%l"illed a%tomatically, b%t only )ith e""ort. Any #o)er"%l technology can be %sed "or good or ill, and nanotechnology is no exce#tion. !oday, )e see scattered #rogress in environmental clean%# and restoration, some slo)ing o" ecological destr%ction, beca%se o" organi.ed #olitical #ress%re b%oyed by a gro%nds)ell o" #%blic concern. >et "or all its "orce, this #ress%re is s#read des#erately thin, "ighting enormo%s resistance rooted in economic "orces. (%t i" these economic "orces vanish, the o##osition )ill cr%mble. @"ten, the +ey to s%ccess in battle is to give one,s o##onents an attractive alternative to "ighting. !he most #o)er"%l cry o" the antigreen o##osition has been that clearing and #oll%ting the land o""er the only #ath to )ealth, the only esca#e "rom #overty. o) )e can see a clean, e""icient, and %nobtr%sive alternative' green )ealth, com#atible )ith nat%ral )ealth.

Ending +he'ical Pollution, +utting

esource +onsu'ption

0e,ve already seen ho) molec%lar man%"act%ring can #rovide clean solar energy )itho%t #aving over desert ecosystems, and ho) clean energy and common materials can be t%rned into ab%ndant, e""icient goods, also cleanly. 0ith care, so%rces o" chemical #oll%tionIeven o" excess carbon dioxide Ican, ste# by ste#, be eliminated. !his incl%des the #oll%tants res#onsible "or acid rain, as )ell as o.one&destroying gases, greenho%se gases, oil s#ills, and toxic )astes. 5n each case, the story is abo%t the same. Acid rain mostly res%lts "rom b%rning dirty "%els containing s%l"%r, and "rom b%rning cleaner "%els in a dirty )ay, #rod%cing nitrogen oxides. 0e,ve seen ho) molec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e solar cells chea# eno%gh and r%gged eno%gh to %se as road s%r"aces. 0ith green )ealth, )e can ma+e clean "%els "rom solar energy, air, and )aterB cons%ming these "%els in clean nanomechanical systems )o%ld -%st ret%rn to the air exactly the materials ta+en "rom it, along )ith a little )ater va#or. =%els are made, "%els are cons%med, and the cycle #rod%ces no net #oll%tion. 0ith chea# solar "%els, coal and #etrole%m can be re#laced, ignored, le"t in the gro%nd. 0hen #etrole%m is obsolete, oil s#ills )ill vanish. !he greenho%se gas o" greatest concern is carbon dioxide, and its main so%rce is the b%rning o" "ossil "%els. !he above ste#s )o%ld end this. !he release o" other gases, s%ch as the chloro"l%orocarbons 2C=Cs3 %sed in "oaming #lastics, is o"ten a side e""ect o" #rimitive man%"act%ring #rocesses' foaming lastic )ill hardly be a #o#%lar activity in an era o" molec%lar man%"act%ring. !hese materials can be re#laced or controlledIand they incl%de the gases most res#onsible "or o.one de#letion. !he chie" threats to the o.one layer are those same C=Cs, %sed as re"rigerants and solvents. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill %se solvents s#aringly 2mostly )ater3, and can recycle them )itho%t d%m#ing any. C=C re"rigerants can be re#laced even )ith c%rrent technology, at a costB )ith nanotechnology, that cost )ill be negligible. !oxic )astes generally consist o" harmless atoms arranged into noxio%s molec%lesB the same is tr%e o" se)age. 0ith inex#ensive energy and e$%i#ment able to )or+ at the molec%lar level, these )astes can be converted into harmless "orms. 8any need never be #rod%ced in the "irst #lace. @ther toxic )astes contain toxic elements, s%ch as lead, merc%ry, arsenic, and cadmi%m. !hese elements come "rom the gro%nd, and are best ret%rned to the location and condition in )hich they )ere "o%nd. 0ith nanotechnology, moreover, there )ill be little reason to dig them %# in the "irst #lace. anotechnology )ill be able to brea+ materials do)n to sim#le molec%les and b%ild them bac+ %# again. eed it be said that this )ill #ermit com#lete recycling* 5t is "air to say that eliminating these so%rces o" #oll%tion )o%ld be a ma-or im#rovement. !here doesn,t seem to be m%ch more to say, aside "rom the %s%al caveats' 9 ot immediately,9 9 ot all at once,9 and 9 ot on a #redictable sched%le.9 o one )ants to ma+e and d%m# )astesB they )ant something else, and get )astes as by&#rod%cts. 0ith a better )ay to get )hat #eo#le )ant, d%m#ing )astes can be sto##ed. Peo#le )ill also be able to get )hat they )ant )hile red%cing their reso%rce cons%m#tion. As materials gro) stronger, they can be %sed more s#aringly. As machines gro) more #er"ectIin their motors, bearings, ins%lation, com#%tersIthey )ill gro) more e""icient. 8aterials )ill be needed to ma+e things, and energy )ill be needed to r%n them, b%t in smaller amo%nts. 0hat is more, nanotechnology )ill be the %ltimate recycling technology. @b-ects can be made extremely d%rable, decreasing the need "or recyclingB alternatively, ob-ects can be made gen%inely biodegradable, designed at the molec%lar level to decom#ose a"ter %se, leaving h%m%s and mineral gritB alternatively, they can be made o" microsco#ic sna#&together #ieces, ma+ing ob-ects as recyclable as str%ct%res b%ilt and reb%ilt o%t o" a child,s bloc+sB "inally, even ob-ects not designed "or recycling can be ta+en a#art into sim#le molec%les and recycled regardless. Each a##roach has di""erent advantages and costs, and each ma+es c%rrent garbage #roblems go a)ay.

+leaning )p the T3entieth +entury Mess /till, even a"ter t)entieth&cent%ry ind%stry is history, its toxic resid%es )ill remain. Cleaning %# )aste d%m#s )ith today,s technology has #roved so ex#ensive and ine""ective that many in the "ield have all b%t given %# ho#e o" really solving the #roblem. 0hat can be done )ith #ost&brea+thro%gh technologies* Cleansing .oil and !ater anotechnology can hel# )ith the clean%# o" these #oll%tants. Diving organisms clean the environment, )hen they can, by %sing molec%lar machinery to brea+ do)n toxic materials. /ystems b%ilt )ith nanotechnology )ill be able to do li+e)ise, and to deal )ith com#o%nds that aren,t biodegradable. Alan Diss is director o" research "or Ecological Engineering Associates, a com#any that %ses +no)ledge o" ho) nat%ral ecosystems "%nction to address environmental #roblems s%ch as )aste)ater treatment. 4e ex#lains ho) clean%# co%ld )or+' 9!he more )e learn abo%t the ecosystem, the more )e "ind that "%nctions are managed by #artic%lar organisms or gro%#s o" organisms. anotech ,managers, might be able to ste# in )hen the nat%ral managers are not available, thereby having a #artic%lar ecological activity occ%r that other)ise )o%ldn,t have ha##ened. A nanotech manager might be %sed "or remediation in a sit%ation )here toxicants have destroyed some +ey members o" a #artic%lar ecosystemIsome managerial microbes, "or exam#le. @nce the needed activities are reinitiated, the living s%rvivors o" the stressed ecosystem can -%m# in and contin%e the ecosystem recovery e""ort.9 =5G?AE 1C' E J5A@ 8E !AD CDEA ?P

By changing the way materials and roducts are made, molecular manufacturing will free u land formerly used for industrial lants. )oxic materials could be removed from contaminated soil using solar ower as the energy source, and the cleanu device and any collected residues could later be carted away. !o see ho) nanomachines co%ld be %sed to clean %# #oll%tion, imagine a device made o" smart materials and ro%ghly resembling a tree, once it has been delivered and %n"olded. Above gro%nd are solar&collecting #anelsB belo) gro%nd, a branching system o" rootli+e t%bes reaches a certain distance into the soil. (y extending into a toxic )aste d%m#, these rootli+e str%ct%res co%ld soa+ %# toxic chemicals, %sing energy "rom the solar collectors to convert them into harmless com#o%nds. Aootli+e str%ct%res extending do)n into the )ater table co%ld do the same clean%# -ob in #oll%ted a$%i"ers. Cleansing the (t os#here 8ost atmos#heric #oll%tants are $%ic+ly )ashed o%t by rain 2t%rning them into soil& and )ater& #oll%tion #roblems3, b%t some air #oll%tants are longer lasting. Among these are the chlorine com#o%nds attac+ing the o.one layer that #rotects the Earth "rom excessive %ltraviolet radiation. /ince 1967, observers have recorded gro)ing holes in the o.one layer' at the /o%th Pole, the hole can reach as "ar as the ti#s o" /o%th America, A"rica, and A%stralia. Doss o" this #rotection s%b-ects

#eo#le to an increased ris+ o" s+in cancer and has %n+no)n e""ects on ecosystems. !he ne) technology base )ill be able to sto# the increase in o.one&destroying com#o%nds, b%t the e""ects )o%ld linger "or years. 4o) might this #roblem be reversed more ra#idly* !h%s "ar, )e,ve tal+ed abo%t nanotechnology in the laboratory, in man%"act%ring #lants, and in #rod%cts "or direct h%man %se. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can also ma+e #rod%cts that )ill #er"orm some %se"%l tem#orary "%nction )hen tossed o%t into the environment. Getting rid o" o.one&destroying #oll%tants high in the stratos#here is one exam#le. !here may be sim#ler a##roaches, )itho%t the so#histication o" nanotechnology, b%t here is one that )o%ld )or+ to cleanse the stratos#here o" chlorine' 8a+e h%ge n%mbers o" balloons, each the si.e o" a grain o" #ollen and light eno%gh to "loat %# into the o.one layer. 5n each, #lace a small solar&#o)er #lant, a molec%lar&#rocessing #lant, and a microsco#ic grain o" sodi%m. !he #rocessing #lant collects chlorine&containing com#o%nds and se#arates o%t the chlorine. Combining this )ith the sodi%m ma+es sodi%m chloride&ordinary salt. 0hen the sodi%m is gone, the balloon colla#ses and "alls. Event%ally, a grain o" salt and a biodegradable s#ec+ "all to Earth, %s%ally at sea. !he stratos#here is soon clean. A larger #roblem 2)ith a gro%nd&based sol%tion3 is climatic change ca%sed by rising carbon dioxide 2C@E3 levels. Global )arming, ex#ected by most climatologists and #robably %nder )ay today, is ca%sed by changes in the com#osition o" Earth,s atmos#here. !he s%n shines on the Earth, )arming it. !he Earth radiates heat bac+ into s#ace, cooling. !he rate at )hich it cools de#ends on ho) trans#arent the atmos#here is to the radiation o" heat. !he tendency o" the atmos#here to hold heat, to bloc+ thermal radiation "rom esca#ing into s#ace, ca%ses )hat is called the 9greenho%se e""ect.9 /everal gases contrib%te to this, b%t C@E #resents the most massive #roblem. =ossil "%els and de"orestation both contrib%te. (e"ore the ne) technology base arrives, something li+e FCC billion tons o" excess C@E )ill li+ely have been added to the atmos#here. /mall greenho%ses can hel# reverse the global greenho%se e""ect. (y #ermitting more e""icient agric%lt%re, molec%lar man%"act%ring can "ree land "or re"orestation, hel#ing to re#air the devastation )ro%ght by h%ngry #eo#le. Gro)ing "orests absorb C@E. 5" re"orestation is not "ast eno%gh, inex#ensive solar energy can be a##lied to remove C@E directly, #rod%cing oxygen and glossy gra#hite #ebbles. Painting the )orld,s roads )ith solar cells )o%ld yield abo%t "o%r trillion )atts o" #o)er, eno%gh to remove C@E at a rate o" 1C billion tons #er year. !em#orarily #lanting one&tenth o" ?./. "arm acreage )ith a solar cell 9cro#9 )o%ld #rovide eno%gh energy to remove FCC billion tons in "ive yearsB )inds )o%ld distrib%te the bene"its )orld)ide. !he t)entieth cent%ry ins%lt to Earth,s atmos#here can be reversed by less than a decade o" t)enty& "irst cent%ry re#air )or+. Ecosystems damaged in the meantime are another matter. 1rbital !aste !he s#ace near Earth is being #oll%ted )ith small orbiting #ro-ectiles, some as small as a #in. 8ost o" the debris is "loating "ragments o" discarded roc+et stages, b%t it also incl%des gloves and cameras dro##ed by astrona%ts. !his is not a #roblem "or li"e on Earth, b%t it is a #roblem as li"e begins its historic s#read beyond Earth&the "irst great ex#ansion since the greening o" the continents, long ago. @rbiting ob-ects travel m%ch "aster than ri"le b%llets, and energy increases as the s$%are o" s#eed. /mall "ragments o" debris in s#ace can do tremendo%s damage to a s#acecra"t, and )orseI their im#act on an s#acecra"t can blast loose yet more debris. Each "ragment is #otentially deadly to a s#ace"aring h%man crossing its #ath. !oday, the tiny "raction o" s#ace that is near Earth is increasingly cl%ttered. !his litter needs to be #ic+ed %#. 0ith molec%lar man%"act%ring, it )ill be #ossible to b%ild small s#acecra"t able to mane%ver "rom orbit to orbit in s#ace, #ic+ing %# one #iece o" debris a"ter another. /mall s#acecra"t are needed, since it ma+es no sense to send a sh%ttle a"ter a scra# o" metal the si.e o" a #ostage stam#. 0ith these devices, )e can clean the s+ies and +ee# them hos#itable to li"e.

Nuclear !aste 0e,ve s#o+en o" )aste that -%st needs molec%lar changes to ma+e it harmless, and toxic elements that came "rom the gro%nd, b%t n%clear technology has created a third +ind o" )aste. 5t has converted the slo), mild radioactivity o" %rani%m into the "ast, intense radioactivity o" ne)ly created n%clei, the #rod%cts o" "ission and ne%tron bombardment. o molec%lar change can ma+e them harmless, and these materials did not come "rom the gro%nd. !he #rod%cts o" molec%lar man%"act%ring co%ld hel# )ith conventional a##roaches to dealing )ith n%clear )aste, hel#ing to store it in the most stable, reliable "orms #ossibleIb%t there is a more radical sol%tion. Even be"ore the era o" the n%clear reactor and the n%clear bomb, ex#erimenters made arti"icially radioactive elements by accelerating #articles and slamming them into nonradioactive targets. !hese #articles traveled "ast eno%gh to #enetrate the interior o" an atom and reach the n%cle%s, -oining it or brea+ing it a#art. !he entire Earth is made o" "allo%t "rom n%clear reactions in ancient stars. 5ts radioactivity is lo) beca%se so m%ch time has #assed&many hal"&lives, "or most radioactive n%clei. 9Kic+ing9 these stable n%clei changes them, o"ten into a radioactive state. (%t +ic+ing a radioactive n%cle%s has a certain chance o" t%rning it into a stable one, destroying the radioactivity. (y +ic+ing, sorting, and +ic+ing again, an atom&smashing machine co%ld ta+e in electrical #o)er and radioactive )aste, and o%t#%t nothing b%t stable, nonradioactive elements, identical to those common in nat%re. Don,t recommend this to yo%r congressmanIit )o%ld be "ar too ex#ensive, todayIb%t it )ill some day be #ractical to destroy the radioactivity o" the t)entieth&cent%ry,s le"tover n%clear )aste. anotechnology cannot do this directly, beca%se molec%lar machines )or+ )ith molec%les, not n%clei. (%t indirectly, by ma+ing energy and e$%i#ment inex#ensive, molec%lar man%"act%ring can give %s the means "or a clean, #ermanent sol%tion to the #roblem o" )astes le"t over "rom the n%clear era. A Wealth of /arbage /hortages o"ten s#%r environmental damage. =aced )ith a "ood shortage, herdsmen can gra.e grasslands do)n to bare dirt. =aced )ith an energy shortage, ind%strial co%ntries can a##rove destr%ctive #ro-ects. !he gro)th o" #o#%lation and the cons%m#tion o" reso%rces by t)entieth&cent%ry ind%stry have #laced gro)ing #ress%res on Earth,s ability to s%##ort %s in the manner to )hich )e have become acc%stomed. !he reso%rce #roblem )ill loo+ $%ite di""erent in the t)enty&"irst cent%ry, )ith a ne) technology base. !oday, )e c%t trees and mine iron "or o%r str%ct%res. 0e #%m# oil and mine coal "or o%r energy. Even cement is born in the "lames o" b%rning "ossil "%els. Almost everything )e b%ild, almost every move )e ma+e, cons%mes something ri##ed "rom the Earth. !his need not contin%e. @%r civili.ation %ses materials "or many things, b%t mainly to ma+e things )ith a certain si.e, sha#e, and strength. !hese str%ct%ral %ses incl%de everything "rom "ibers in clothing to #aving in roads, and most o" the mass o" "%rnit%re, )alls, cars, s#acecra"t, com#%tersIindeed, most o" the mass o" almost every #rod%ct )e b%ild and %se. !he best str%ct%ral materials %se carbon, in "orms li+e diamond and gra#hite. 0ith elements "rom air and )ater, carbon ma+es %# the #olymers o" )ool and #olyester, and o" )ood and nylon. A t)enty&"irst&cent%ry civili.ation co%ld mine the atmos#here "or carbon, extracting over FCC billion tons be"ore lo)ering the C@E concentration bac+ to its nat%ral, #re& ind%strial level. =or a #o#%lation o" 1C billion, this )o%ld be eno%gh to give every "amily a large ho%se )ith light)eight b%t steel&strong )alls, )ith 97 #ercent le"t over. Atmos#heric garbage is an am#le so%rce o" str%ct%ral materials, )ith no need to c%t trees or dig iron ore. Plants sho) that carbon can be %sed to b%ild solar collectors. Daboratory )or+ sho)s that carbon com#o%nds can be better cond%ctors than co##er. A )hole #o)er system co%ld be b%ilt )itho%t even to%ching the rich reso%rces o" metal b%ried in garbage d%m#s. Carbon can ma+e )indo)s, o" #lastic or diamond. Carbon can ma+e things color"%l )ith organic

dyes. Carbon can be %sed to b%ild nanocom#%ters, and )ill be the chie" com#onent o" high& #er"ormance nanomachines o" all +inds. !he other com#onents in all these materials are hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen, all "o%nd in air and )ater. @ther elements are %se"%l, b%t seldom necessary. !races )o%ld o"ten be am#le. 0ith a ne) technology base ma+ing recycling easy, there need be no steady de#letion o" Earth,s reso%rces, -%st to +ee# a civili.ation r%nning. !he s+etch -%st made sho)s that recycling -%st one "orm o" garbageIexcess atmos#heric C@EIcan #rovide most needs. Even 1C billion )ealthy #eo#le )o%ld not need to stri# the Earth o" reso%rces. !hey co%ld ma+e do )ith )hat )e,ve already d%g %# and thro)n a)ay, and they )o%ldn,t even need all o" that. 5n short, a t)enty&"irst&cent%ry civili.ation )ith a #o#%lation o" 1C billion co%ld maintain a high standard o" living %sing nothing b%t )aste "rom t)entieth&cent%ry ind%stry, s%##lemented )ith modest amo%nts o" air, )ater, and s%nlight. !his )on,t necessarily ha##en, yet the very "act that it is #ossible gives a better sense o" )hat the ne) technology base can mean "or the relationshi# bet)een h%manity, reso%rces, and the Earth. Green Products 5n )he :reen Consumer, El+ington, 4ailes, and 8a+o)er de"ine a green #rod%ct as one that' W 5s not dangero%s to the health o" #eo#le or animals W Does not ca%se damage to the environment d%ring man%"act%re, %se, or dis#osal W Does not cons%me a dis#ro#ortionate amo%nt o" energy and other reso%rces d%ring man%"act%re, %se, or dis#osal W Does not ca%se %nnecessary )aste, d%e either to excessive #ac+aging or to a short %se"%l li"e W Does not involve the %nnecessary %se o" or cr%elty to animals W Does not %se materials derived "rom threatened s#ecies or environments W 5deally, does not trade #rice, $%ality, n%trition, or convenience "or environmental $%ality 0ith its ability to ma+e almost anything at lo) costIincl%ding #rod%cts designed "or extreme sa"ety, d%rability, e""iciencyI)itho%t mining, logging, harming animals or environments, or #rod%cing toxic )astes, molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e #ossible greener #rod%cts than any yet seen in a store. anotechnology can re#lace dirty )ealth )ith green )ealth. En.iron'ental estoration A central #roblem in environmental restoration is reversing environmental encroachment. 0e tend to see land as being gobbled %# by ho%sing, beca%se the land where we live generally is. =arming, tho%gh, cons%mes more land, and the variant o" "arming called 9"orestry9 cons%mes still more. (y rolling bac+ o%r re$%irement "or "armland, and "or )ood and #a#er, nanotechnology can change the balance o" "orces behind environmental encroachment. !his sho%ld ma+e it more #ractical, #olitically and economically, "or #eo#le to move to)ard environmental restoration. Aestoring the environment means ret%rning land to )hat it )as&removing )hat has been added and, )here #ossible, re#lacing )hat has been lost. 0e,ve seen ho) this can be done, in #art, by removing #oll%tants and some o" the #ress%res "or #lo%ghing and #aving. A more di""ic%lt #roblem, tho%gh, is restoring the ecological balance )here the changes have been biological. 8%ch o" Earth,s biological diversity has been a res%lt o" biological isolation, o" islands, seas, mo%ntains, and continents. !his isolation has been breached, and reversing the res%lting #roblems is one o" the greatest challenges in healing the bios#here.

$ #orted .#ecies 4%man meddling )ith li"e in the bios#here has ca%sed enormo%s ecological disr%#tions. !his hasn,t involved genetic engineeringIby t)isting organisms to better serve h%man #%r#oses, genetic engineering %s%ally leaves them less able to serve their o)n #%r#oses, less able to s%rvive and re#rod%ce in the )ild. !he great disr%#tions have come "rom a di""erent so%rce' "rom globe&traveling h%man beings ta+ing aggressive, )ell&ada#ted s#ecies "rom one #art o" the #lanet to another, landing them on a distant island or continent to invade an ecosystem )ith no evolved de"enses. !his has ha##ened again and again. A%stralia is a classic case. 5t had been isolated long eno%gh to evolve its o)n #ec%liar s#ecies $%ite %n"amiliar else)here' +angaroos, +oalas, d%c+&billed #laty#%ses. 0hen h%mans arrived, they bro%ght ne) s#ecies. 0hoever bro%ght the "irst rabbits co%ld not have g%essed that they, o" all creat%res, )o%ld be so destr%ctive. !hey soon overran the continent, destroying cro#s and gra.ing lands, %nchec+ed by nat%ral com#etitors or #redators. !hey )ere -oined by invaders "rom the #lant +ingdom' the #ric+ly #ear, and others. !he Americas have s%""ered invasions, too' t%mble)eed, a bane o" the rancher and "armer, is a relatively recent im#ort "rom Central Asia. /ince 197<, A"ricani.ed bees have been s#reading "rom (ra.il and moving northIb%t )hat they dis#lace, in America, are E%ro#ean bees. A"rica, in t%rn, is being invaded by the American scre)&)orm "ly, an insect )ith larvae that enter an animal,s )o%nds, incl%ding the %mbilical )o%nd o" a ne)born, and eat it alive. !he story goes on and on. Peo#le have sometimes tried, )ith a meas%re o" s%ccess, to "ight "ire )ith "ire' to bring in #arasitic s#ecies and diseases to attac+ the im#orted s#ecies and +ee# its gro)th )ithin some reasonable bo%nds. A%stralia,s #roblem )ith #ric+ly #ear )as tac+led %sing an insect "rom ArgentinaB the rabbits )ere c%t bac+I)ith mixed res%ltsI%sing a viral disease called myxomatosis' 9rabbit #ox.9 Ecosyste Protectors

5n many #arts o" the )orld, native s#ecies have been driven to extinction by rats, #igs, and other im#orted s#ecies, and others are endangered and "ighting "or their lives. (iological controlsI"ighting "ire )ith "ireIhave advantages' organisms are small, selective, and inex#ensive. !hese advantages )ill event%ally be shared by devices made %sing molec%lar man%"act%ring, )hich avoid the disadvantages o" im#orting and releasing yet more %ncontrollable, breeding, s#reading s#ecies. Alan Diss s#o+e o" %sing nanotechnological devices to hel# restore ecosystems at a chemical level. A similar idea can be a##lied at a biological level. !he challengeIand it is h%geI)o%ld be to develo# insect&si.e or even microbe&si.e devices that co%ld serve as selective, mobile, mechanical "lys)atters or )eed #%llers. !hese co%ld do )hat biological controls do, b%t )o%ld be %nable to re#licate and s#read. Det,s call devices o" this sort 9ecosystem #rotectors.9 !hey co%ld +ee# aggressive im#orted s#ecies o%t, saving native s#ecies "rom extinction. !o a h%man being or an ordinary organism, an ecosystem #rotector )o%ld seem li+e -%st one more o" the many billions o" di""erent +inds o" b%gs and microbes in the ecosystemIsmall things going abo%t their o)n b%siness, )ith no tendency to bite. !hey might be detectable, b%t only i" yo% sorted thro%gh a lot o" dirt and loo+ed at it thro%gh a microsco#e, beca%se they )o%ldn,t be very common. !hey )o%ld have -%st one #%r#ose' to notice )hen they b%m#ed into a member o" an im#orted s#ecies on the 9not )elcome here9 list, and then either to eliminate it or to ens%re, at least, that it co%ldn,t re#rod%ce. at%ral organisms are o"ten very "inic+y abo%t )hich s#ecies they attac+. !hese ecosystem #rotectors co%ld be e$%ally "inic+y abo%t )hich s#ecies they a##roach, and then, be"ore attac+ing, co%ld do a D A analysis to be s%re. 5t )o%ld be sim#lest 2es#ecially in the beginning )hile )e,re still learning3 to limit each +ind o" de"ender to monitoring only one im#orted s#ecies.

Each %nit o" a #artic%lar +ind o" ecosystem&de"ender device )o%ld be identical, b%ilt )ith #recision by a s#ecial&#%r#ose molec%lar&man%"act%ring set%#. Each )o%ld last "or a certain time, then brea+ do)n. Each +ind can be tested in a terrari%m, then a greenho%se, then a trial o%tdoors ecosystem, +ee#ing an eye on their e""ects at each stage %ntil one gains the con"idence "or larger scale %se. 9Darger scale9 co%ld still be $%ite limited, i" they aren,t designed to travel very "ar. !his b%ilt& in obsolescence limits both ho) long each device can o#erate and ho) "ar it can move' getting control o" the str%ct%re o" matter incl%des ma+ing nanomachines )or+ )here they,re )anted and not )or+ else)here. !he agric%lt%ral ind%stry today man%"act%res and distrib%tes many tho%sands o" tons o" #oisono%s chemicals to be s#rayed on the land, ty#ically in an attem#t to eliminate one or a "e) s#ecies o" insect. Ecosystem #rotectors co%ld also be %sed to #rotect these agric%lt%ral monoc%lt%res, "ield by "ield, )ith "ar less harm to the environment than today,s methods. !hey co%ld li+e)ise be %sed in the s#ecial ecosystems o" intensive greenho%se agric%lt%re. ?nli+e chemicals s#rayed into the environment, these ecosystem #rotectors )o%ld be #recisely limited in time, s#ace, and e""ect. !hey neither contaminate the gro%nd)ater nor #oison bees and ladyb%gs. 5n order to )eed o%t im#orted organisms and bring an ecosystem bac+ to its nat%ral balance, ecosystem #rotectors )o%ld not have to be very commonIonly common eno%gh "or a ty#ical im#orted organism to enco%nter one once in a li"etime, be"ore re#rod%cing. Even so, as the ecosystem #rotectors )ear o%t and sto# )or+ing, they )o%ld #resent a small& scale #roblem o" solid&)aste dis#osal. 0ith the exercise o" some clever design, all the machinery o" ecosystem #rotectors might be made o" reasonably d%rable yet biodegradable materials or 2at )orst3 materials no more harm"%l than bits o" grit and h%m%s in the soil. /o their remains )o%ld be li+e the shells o" diatoms, or bits o" lignin "rom )ood, or li+e #ec%liar #articles o" clay or sand. Alternatively, )e might develo# other mobile nanomachines to "ind and collect or brea+ do)n their remains. !his strategy starts to loo+ li+e setting %# a #arallel ecosystem o" mobile machines, a #rocess that co%ld be extended to s%##lement the nat%ral cleansing #rocesses o" nat%re in many )ays. Each ste# in this direction )ill re$%ire ca%tion, b%t not #aranoia' there need be no toxic chemicals here, no ne) creat%res to s#read and r%n )ild. 8isste#s )ill have the great virt%e o" being reversible. 5" )e decide that )e don,t li+e the e""ects o" some #artic%lar variety o" ecosystem #rotector or clean%# machine, )e co%ld sim#ly sto# man%"act%ring that +ind. 0e co%ld even retrieve those that had already been made and dis#ersed in the environment, since their exact n%mber is +no)n, along )ith )hich #atch o" gro%nd each is #atrolling. 5" the ma+ing and monitoring o" ecosystem #rotectors seems a lot o" tro%ble to go to -%st to )eed o%t nonnative s#ecies, consider this exam#le o" the environmental destr%ction s%ch s#ecies can ca%se. /ometime be"ore 0orld 0ar 55, a /o%th A"rican s#ecies o" "ire ant )as accidentally im#orted into the ?nited /tates. !oday, in"ested areas can have %# to "ive h%ndred o" these ants #er s$%are "oot. !he ational A%d%bon /ocietyIa strong o##onent o" irres#onsible %se o" #esticidesIhad to resort to s#raying its re"%ge islands near Cor#%s Christi )hen they "o%nd these ants destroying over hal" the hatchlings o" the bro)n #elican, an endangered s#ecies. 5n !exas, it,s been sho)n that the ne) ants are +illing o"" native ant s#eciesIred%cing biodiversity. !he ?/DA,s /an"ord Porter states that d%e to them, 9!exas may be in the midst o" a gen%ine biological revol%tion.9 !he ants are heading )est, and have established a beachhead in Cali"ornia. 0itho%t ecosystem #rotectors or something m%ch li+e them, ecologies aro%nd the )orld )ill contin%e to be threatened by %nnat%ral invasions. @%r s#ecies o#ened the ne) invasion ro%tes, and it,s o%r res#onsibility to #rotect native s#ecies made ne)ly v%lnerable by them. "ending the land !oday, most #eo#le are "ar "rom the land, tied %# in t%rning the )heels o" ECth cent%ry ind%stry. 5n the years to come, those )heels )ill be re#laced by molec%lar systems that do most o" their t%rning by themselves. !he #ress%re to destroy the land )ill be less. !ime available to hel# heal the land )ill

be greater. /%rely more energy )ill "lo) in this direction. !o mend r%ined landsca#es )ill re$%ire s+ill and e""ort. Ecosystem de"enders can do "lys)atting and )eed#%lling -obs no h%mans ever co%ld, b%t there )ill also be -obs o" sha#ing, #lanting, and n%rt%ring. !he land has been torn by machines g%ided by hasty hands, almost overnight. 5t can grad%ally be restored by #atient hands, )hether bare, gloved, or g%iding machines able to resha#e a ravaged mo%ntain )itho%t t%rning the soil. !he green )ealth that can be bro%ght by nanotechnology has raised high ho#es among some environmentalists. Again )riting in Whole Earth /eview, !erence 8cKenna s%ggests it 9)o%ld tend to #romote . . . a sense o" the %nity and balance o" nat%re and o" o%r o)n h%man #osition )ithin that dynamic and evolving balance.9 Perha#s #eo#le )ill learn to val%e nat%re more dee#ly )hen they can see it more clearly, )ith eyes %nclo%ded by grie" and g%ilt.

Cha#ter ,C Nano edicine @%r bodies are "illed )ith intricate, active molec%lar str%ct%res. 0hen those str%ct%res are damaged, health s%""ers. 8odern medicine can a""ect the )or+ings o" the body in many )ays, b%t "rom a molec%lar vie)#oint it remains cr%de indeed. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can constr%ct a range o" medical instr%ments and devices )ith "ar greater abilities. !he body is an enormo%sly com#lex )orld o" molec%les. 0ith nanotechnology to hel#, )e can learn to re#air it. The Molecular !ody !o %nderstand )hat nanotechnology can do "or medicine, )e need a #ict%re o" the body "rom a molec%lar #ers#ective. !he h%man body can be seen as a )or+yard, constr%ction site, and battlegro%nd "or molec%lar machines. 5t )or+s remar+ably )ell, %sing systems so com#lex that medical science still doesn,t %nderstand many o" them. =ail%res, tho%gh, are all too common. +he 2ody (s !or'yard 8olec%lar machines do the daily )or+ o" the body. 0hen )e che) and s)allo), m%scles drive o%r motions. 8%scle "ibers contain b%ndles o" molec%lar "ibers that shorten by sliding #ast one another. 5n the stomach and intestines, the molec%lar machines )e call digestive en.ymes brea+ do)n the com#lex molec%les in "oods, "orming smaller molec%les "or %se as "%el or as b%ilding bloc+s. 8olec%lar devices in the lining o" the digestive tract carry %se"%l molec%les to the bloodstream. 8ean)hile, in the l%ngs, molec%lar storage devices called hemoglobin molec%les #ic+ %# oxygen. Driven by molec%lar "ibers, the heart #%m#s blood laden )ith "%el and oxygen to cells. 5n the m%scles, "%el and oxygen drive contraction based on sliding molec%lar "ibers. 5n the brain, they drive the molec%lar #%m#s that charge nerve cells "or action. 5n the liver, they drive molec%lar machines that b%ild and brea+ do)n a )hole host o" molec%les. And so the story contin%es thro%gh all the )or+ o" the body. >et each o" these "%nctions sometimes "ails, )hether thro%gh damage or inborn de"ect. +he 2ody (s Construction .ite 5n gro)ing, healing, and rene)ing tiss%e, the body is a constr%ction site. Cells ta+e b%ilding materials "rom the bloodstream. 8olec%lar machinery #rogrammed by the cell,s genes %ses these materials to b%ild biological str%ct%res' to lay do)n bone and collagen, to b%ild )hole ne) cells, to rene) s+in, and to heal )o%nds. 0ith the exce#tion o" tooth "illings and other arti"icial im#lants, everything in the h%man body is constr%cted by molec%lar machines. !hese molec%lar machines b%ild molec%les, incl%ding more molec%lar machines. !hey clear a)ay str%ct%res that are old or o%t o" #lace, sometimes %sing machinery li+e digestive en.ymes to ta+e str%ct%res a#art. D%ring tiss%e constr%ction, )hole cells move abo%t, amoebali+e' extending #art o" themselves "or)ard, attaching, #%lling their material along, and letting go o" the "ormer attachment site behind them. 5ndivid%al cells contain a dynamic #attern o" molec%les made o" com#onents that can brea+ do)n b%t can also be re#laced. /ome molec%lar machines in the cell s#eciali.e in digesting molec%les that sho) signs o" damage, allo)ing them to be re#laced by "resh molec%les made according to genetic instr%ctions. Com#onents inside cells "orm their com#lex #atterns by sel"&assembly, that is, by stic+ing to the #ro#er #artners. =ail%res in constr%ction increase as )e age. !eeth )ear and crac+ and aren,t re#lacedB hair

"ollicles sto# )or+ingB s+in sags and )rin+les. !he eye,s sha#e becomes more rigid, r%ining close vision. >o%nger bodies can +nit together bro+en bones $%ic+ly, ma+ing them stronger than be"ore, b%t osteo#orosis can ma+e older bones so "ragile that they brea+ %nder minor stress. /ometimes constr%ction is botched "rom the beginning d%e to a missing or de"ective genetic code. 5n hemo#hilia, bleeding "ails to sto# d%e to the lac+ o" blood clotting "actor. Constr%ction o" m%scle tiss%e is disr%#ted in 1 in F,FCC male births by m%sc%lar dystro#hy, in )hich m%scles are grad%ally re#laced by scar tiss%e and "atB the molec%le 9dystro#hin9 is missing. /ic+le cell anemia res%lts "rom abnormal hemoglobin molec%les. Para#legics and $%adri#legics +no) that some #arts o" the body don,t heal )ell. !he s#inal cord is an extremeIand extremely serio%sIcase, b%t scarring and im#ro#er regro)th o" tiss%es res%lt "rom many accidents. 5" tiss%es al)ays regre) #ro#erly, in-%ry )o%ld do no #ermanent #hysical damage. +he 2ody (s 2attle*ield Assa%lts "rom o%tside the body t%rn it into a battle"ield )here the aggressors sometimes get the %##er hand. =rom #arasitic )orms to #roto.oa to "%ngi to bacteria to vir%ses, organisms o" many +inds have learned to live by entering the body and %sing their molec%lar machinery to b%ild more o" themselves "rom the body,s b%ilding bloc+s. !o meet this onsla%ght, the body m%sters the de"enses o" the imm%ne systemIan armada o" its o)n molec%lar machines. >o%r body,s o)n amoebali+e )hite blood cells #atrol the bloodstream and move o%t into tiss%es, threading their )ay bet)een other cells, searching "or invaders. 4o) can the imm%ne system disting%ish the h%ndreds o" +inds o" cells that sho%ld be in the body "rom the invading cells and vir%ses that sho%ldn,t* !his has been the central $%estion o" the com#lex science o" imm%nology. !he ans)er, as yet only #artially %nderstood, involves a com#lex inter#lay o" molec%les that recogni.e other molec%les by stic+ing to them in a selective "ashion. !hese incl%de "ree&"loating antibodiesI)hich are a bit li+e b%mbling g%ided missilesIand similar molec%les that are bo%nd to the s%r"ace o" )hite blood cells and other cells o" the imm%ne system, enabling them to recogni.e "oreign s%r"aces on contact. !his system ma+es li"e #ossible, de"ending o%r bodies "rom the "ate o" meat le"t at room tem#erat%re. /till, it lets %s do)n in t)o basic )ays. =irst, the imm%ne system does not res#ond to all invaders, or res#onds inade$%ately. 8alaria, t%berc%losis, her#es, and A5D/ all have their strategies "or evading destr%ction. Cancer is a s#ecial case in )hich the invaders are altered cells o" the body itsel", sometimes s%ccess"%lly mas$%erading as healthy cells and esca#ing detection. /econd, the imm%ne system sometimes overres#onds, attac+ing cells that sho%ld be le"t alone. Certain +inds o" arthritis, as )ell as l%#%s and rhe%matic "ever, are ca%sed by this mista+e. (et)een attac+ing )hen it sho%ldn,t and not attac+ing )hen it sho%ld, the imm%ne system o"ten "ails, ca%sing s%""ering and death. Medicine Today 0hen the body,s )or+ing, b%ilding, and battling goes a)ry, )e t%rn to medicine "or diagnosis and treatment. !oday,s methods, tho%gh, have obvio%s shortcomings. Crude "ethods Diagnostic #roced%res vary )idely, "rom as+ing a #atient $%estions, thro%gh loo+ing at S&ray shado)s, thro%gh ex#loratory s%rgery and the microsco#ic and chemical analysis o" materials "rom the body. Doctors can diagnose many ills, b%t others remain mysteries. Even a diagnosis does not im#ly %nderstanding' doctors co%ld diagnose in"ections be"ore they +ne) abo%t germs, and today can

diagnose many syndromes )ith %n+no)n ca%ses. A"ter years o" ex#erimentation and %ntold loss o" li"e, they can even treat )hat they don,t %nderstandIa dr%g may hel#, tho%gh no one +no)s )hy. Deaving aside s%ch thera#ies as heating, massaging, irradiating, and so "orth, the t)o main "orms o" treatment are s%rgery and dr%gs. =rom a molec%lar #ers#ective, neither is so#histicated. /%rgery is a direct, man%al a##roach to "ixing the body, no) #racticed by highly trained s#ecialists. /%rgeons se) together torn tiss%es and s+in to enable healing, c%t o%t cancer, clear o%t clogged arteries, and even install #acema+ers and re#lacement organs. 5t,s direct, b%t it can be dangero%s' anesthetics, in"ections, organ re-ection, and missed cancer cells can all ca%se "ail%re. /%rgeons lac+ "ine&scale control. !he body )or+s by means o" molec%lar machines, most )or+ing inside cells. /%rgeons can see neither molec%les nor cells, and can re#air neither. Dr%g thera#ies a""ect the body at the molec%lar level. /ome thera#iesIli+e ins%lin "or diabetics I#rovide materials the body lac+s. 8ostIli+e antibiotics "or in"ectionsIintrod%ce materials no h%man body #rod%ces. A dr%g consists o" small molec%lesB in o%r sim%lated molec%lar )orld, many )o%ld "it in the #alm o" yo%r hand. !hese molec%les are d%m#ed into the body 2sometimes directed to a #artic%lar region by a needle or the li+e3, )here they mix and )ander thro%gh blood and tiss%e. !hey ty#ically b%m# into other molec%les o" all sorts in all #laces, b%t only stic+ to and a""ect molec%les o" certain +inds. Antibiotics li+e #enicillin are selective #oisons. !hey stic+ to molec%lar machines in bacteria and -am them, th%s "ighting in"ection. Jir%ses are a harder case beca%se they are sim#ler and have "e)er v%lnerable molec%lar machines. 0orms, "%ngi, and #roto.oa are also di""ic%lt, beca%se their molec%lar machines are more li+e those "o%nd in the h%man body, and hence harder to -am selectively. Cancer is the most di""ic%lt o" all. Cancero%s gro)ths consist o" h%man cells, and attem#ts to #oison the cancer cells ty#ically #oison the rest o" the #atient as )ell. @ther dr%g molec%les bind to molec%les in the h%man body and modi"y their behavior. /ome decrease the secretion o" stomach acid, others stim%late the +idneys, many a""ect the molec%lar dynamics o" the brain. Designing dr%g molec%les to bind to s#eci"ic targets is a gro)th ind%stry today, and #rovides one o" the many short&term #ayo""s that is s#%rring develo#ments in molec%lar engineering. -i ited (bilities C%rrent medicine is limited both by its %nderstanding and by its tools. 5n many )ays, it is still more an art than a science. 8ar+ Pearson o" D% Pont #oints o%t, 95n some areas, medicine has become m%ch more scienti"ic, and in others not m%ch at all. 0e,re still short o" )hat 5 )o%ld consider a reasonable scienti"ic level. 8any #eo#le don,t reali.e that )e -%st don,t +no) "%ndamentally ho) things )or+. 5t,s li+e having an a%tomobile, and ho#ing that by ta+ing things a#art, )e,ll %nderstand something o" ho) they o#erate. 0e +no) there,s an engine in the "ront and )e +no) it,s %nder the hood, )e have an idea that it,s big and heavy, b%t )e don,t really see the rings that allo) #istons to slide in the bloc+. 0e don,t even %nderstand that controlled ex#losions are res#onsible "or #roviding the energy that drives the machine.9 (etter tools co%ld #rovide both better +no)ledge and better )ays to a##ly that +no)ledge "or healing. !oday,s s%rgery can rearrange blood vessels, b%t is "ar too coarse to rearrange or re#air cells. !oday,s dr%g thera#ies can target some s#eci"ic molec%les, b%t only some, and only on the basis o" ty#e. Doctors today can,t a""ect molec%les in one cell )hile leaving identical molec%les in a neighboring cell %nto%ched beca%se medicine today cannot a##ly s%rgical control to the molec%lar level. Nanotechnology in Medicine Develo#ments in nanotechnology )ill res%lt in im#roved medical sensors. As #rotein chemist (ill DeGrado notes, 9Probably the "irst %se yo% may see )o%ld be in diagnostics' being able to ta+e a tiny

amo%nt o" blood "rom somebody, -%st a #in#ric+, and diagnose "or a h%ndred di""erent things. (iological systems are already able to do that, and 5 thin+ )e sho%ld be able to design molec%les or assemblies o" molec%les that mimic the biological system.9 5n the longer term, tho%gh, the story o" nanotechnology in medicine )ill be the story o" extending s%rgical control to the molec%lar level. !he easiest a##lications )ill be aids to the imm%ne system, )hich selectively attac+ invaders o%tside tiss%es. 8ore di""ic%lt a##lications )ill re$%ire that medical nanomachines mimic )hite blood cells by entering tiss%es to interact )ith their cells. =%rther a##lications )ill involve the com#lexities o" molec%lar&level s%rgery on individ%al cells. As )e loo+ at ho) to solve vario%s #roblems, yo%,ll notice that some that loo+ di""ic%lt today )ill become easy, )hile others that might seem easier t%rn o%t to be more di""ic%lt. !he seeming di""ic%lty o" treating disorders is al)ays changing' @nce #olio )as "re$%ent and inc%rable, today it is easily #revented. /y#hilis once ca%sed steady #hysical decline leading to insanity and deathB no) it is c%red )ith a shot. Athlete,s "oot has never been seen as a great sco%rge, yet it remains hard to c%re. Di+e)ise )ith the common cold. !his #attern )ill contin%e' Deadly diseases may be easily dealt )ith, )hile minor ills remain inc%rable, or vice versa. As )e )ill see, a mat%re nanotechnology&based medicine )ill be able to deal )ith almost any #hysical #roblem, b%t the order o" di""ic%lty may be s%r#rising. at%re cares nothing "or o%r sense o" a##ro#riateness. 4orribleness and di""ic%lty -%st aren,t the same thing. Working $utside Tissues @ne a##roach to nanomedicine )o%ld ma+e %se o" microsco#ic mobile devices b%ilt %sing molec%lar&man%"act%ring e$%i#ment. !hese )o%ld resemble the ecosystem #rotectors and mobile clean%# machines disc%ssed in the last cha#ter. Di+e them, they )o%ld either be biodegradable, sel"& collecting, or collected by something else once they )ere done )or+ing. Di+e them, they )o%ld be more di""ic%lt to develo# than sim#le, "ixed&location nanomachines, yet clearly "easible and %se"%l. Develo#ment )ill start )ith the sim#ler a##lications, so let,s begin by loo+ing at )hat can be done )itho%t entering living tiss%es. !he s+in is the body,s largest organ, and its ex#osed #osition s%b-ects it to a lot o" ab%se. !his ex#osed #osition, tho%gh, also ma+es it easier to treat. Among the earlier a##lications o" molec%lar man%"act%ring may be those #o#%lar, $%asimedical #rod%cts, cosmetics. A cream #ac+ed )ith nanomachines co%ld do a better and more selective -ob o" cleaning than any #rod%ct can today. 5t co%ld remove the right amo%nt o" dead s+in, remove excess oils, add missing oils, a##ly the right amo%nts o" nat%ral moist%ri.ing com#o%nds, and even achieve the el%sive goal o" 9dee# #ore cleaning9 by act%ally reaching do)n into #ores and cleaning them o%t. !he cream co%ld be a smart material )ith smooth&on, #eel&o"" convenience. !he mo%th, teeth, and g%ms are ama.ingly tro%blesome. !oday, daily dental care is an endless cycle o" br%shing and "lossing, o" losing gro%nd to tooth decay and g%m disease as slo)ly as #ossible. A mo%th)ash "%ll o" smart nanomachines co%ld do all that br%shing and "lossing do and more, and )ith "ar less e""ortIma+ing it more li+ely to be %sed. !his mo%th)ash )o%ld identi"y and destroy #athogenic bacteria )hile allo)ing the harmless "lora o" the mo%th to "lo%rish in a healthy ecosystem. =%rther, the devices )o%ld identi"y #articles o" "ood, #la$%e, or tartar, and li"t them "rom teeth to be rinsed a)ay. (eing s%s#ended in li$%id and able to s)im abo%t, devices )o%ld be able to reach s%r"aces beyond reach o" toothbr%sh bristles or the "ibers o" "loss. As short&li"etime medical nanodevices, they co%ld be b%ilt to last only a "e) min%tes in the body be"ore "alling a#art into materials o" the sort "o%nd in "oods 2s%ch as "iber3. 0ith this sort o" daily dental care "rom an early age, tooth decay and g%m disease )o%ld li+ely never arise. 5" %nder )ay, they )o%ld be greatly lessened.

Going beyond this s%#er"icial treatment )o%ld involve moving among and modi"ying cells. Det,s consider )hat can be done )ith this treatment inside the body, b%t o%tside the body,s tiss%es. !he bloodstream carries everything "rom n%trients to imm%ne&system cells, )ith chemical signals and in"ectio%s organisms besides.

=5G?AE 11' 588? E 8AC45 E/ %edical nanodevices could augment the immune system by finding and disabling unwanted bacteria and viruses. )he immune device in the foreground has found a virus8 the other has touched a red blood cell. !da ted from Scientific !merican, Canuary "122. 4ere, it is %se"%l to thin+ in terms o" medical nanomachines that resemble small s%bmarines, li+e the ones in =ig%re 11. Each o" these is large eno%gh to carry a nanocom#%ter as #o)er"%l as a mid& 19;Cs main"rame, along )ith a h%ge database 2a billion bytes3, a com#lete set o" instr%ments "or identi"ying biological s%r"aces, and tools "or clobbering vir%ses, bacteria, and other invaders. 5mm%ne cells, as )e,ve seen, travel thro%gh the bloodstream chec+ing s%r"aces "or "oreignness andI)hen )or+ing #ro#erlyIattac+ing and eliminating )hat sho%ld not be there. !hese immune machines )o%ld do both more and less. 0ith their onboard sensors and com#%ters, they )ill be able to react to the same molec%lar signals that the imm%ne system does, b%t )ith greater discrimination. (e"ore being sent into the body on their search&and&destroy mission, they co%ld be #rogrammed )ith a set o" characteristics that lets them clearly disting%ish their targets "rom everything else. !he body,s imm%ne system can res#ond only to invading organisms that had been enco%ntered by that individ%al,s body. 5mm%ne machines, ho)ever, co%ld be #rogrammed to res#ond to anything that had been enco%ntered by )orld medicine. 5mm%ne machines can be designed "or %se in the bloodstream or the digestive tract 2the mo%th)ash described above %sed these abilities in h%nting do)n harm"%l bacteria3. !hey co%ld "loat and circ%late, as antibiotics do, )hile searching "or intr%ders to ne%trali.e. !o esca#e being eng%l"ed by )hite blood cells ma+ing their o)n #atrols, imm%ne machines co%ld dis#lay standard molec%les on their s%r"ace&molec%les the body +no)s and tr%sts alreadyIli+e a "ello) #olice o""icer )earing a "amiliar %ni"orm. 0hen an invader is identi"ied, it can be #%nct%red, letting its contents s#ill o%t and ending its e""ectiveness. 5" the contents )ere +no)n to be ha.ardo%s by themselves, then the imm%ne machine co%ld hold on to it long eno%gh to dismantle it more com#letely.

4o) )ill these devices +no) )hen it,s time to de#art* 5" the #hysician in charge is s%re the tas+ )ill be "inished )ithin, say, one day, the devices #rescribed co%ld be o" a ty#e designed to "all a#art a"ter t)enty&"o%r ho%rs. 5" the treatment time needed is variable, the #hysician co%ld monitor #rogress and sto# action at the a##ro#riate time by sending a s#eci"ic molec%leIas#irin #erha#s, or something even sa"erIas a signal to sto# )or+. !he inactivated devices )o%ld then be cleared o%t along )ith other )aste eliminated "rom the body. Working Within Tissues 5n most #arts o" the body, the "inest blood vessels, ca#illaries, #ass )ithin a "e) cell diameters o" every #oint. Certain )hite blood cells can leave these vessels to move among the neighboring cells. 5mm%ne machines and similar devices, being even smaller, co%ld do li+e)ise. 5n some tiss%es, this )ill be easy, in some harder, b%t )ith care"%l design and testing, essentially any #oint o" the body sho%ld become accessible "or healing re#airs. 8erely "ighting organisms in the bloodstream )o%ld be a ma-or advance, c%tting their n%mbers and inhibiting their s#read. Aoving medical nanomachines, tho%gh, )ill be able to h%nt do)n invaders thro%gho%t the body and eliminate them entirely. Eli inating $nvaders Cancers are a #rime exam#le. !he imm%ne system recogni.es and eliminates most #otential cancers, b%t some get by. Physicians can recogni.e cancer cells by their a##earance and by molec%lar mar+ers, b%t they cannot al)ays remove them all thro%gh s%rgery, and o"ten cannot "ind a selective #oison. 5mm%ne machines, ho)ever, )ill have no di""ic%lty identi"ying cancer cells, and )ill %ltimately be able to trac+ them do)n and destroy them )herever they may be gro)ing. Destroying every cancer cell )ill c%re the cancer. (acteria, #roto.oa, )orms, and other #arasites have even more obvio%s molec%lar mar+ers. @nce identi"ied, they co%ld be destroyed, ridding the body o" the disease they ca%se. 5mm%ne machines th%s co%ld deal )ith t%berc%losis, stre# throat, le#rosy, malaria, amoebic dysentery, slee#ing sic+ness, river blindness, hoo+)orm, "l%+es, candida, valley "ever, antibiotic&resistant bacteria, and even athlete,s "oot. All are ca%sed by invading cells or larger organisms 2s%ch as )orms3. 4ealth o""icials estimate that #arasitic diseases, common in the !hird 0orld, a""ect more than one billion #eo#le. =or many o" these diseases, no satis"actory dr%g treatment exists. All can event%ally be eliminated as threats to h%man health by a s%""iciently advanced "orm o" nanomedicine. :erding Cells Destroying invaders )ill be hel#"%l, b%t in-%ries and str%ct%ral #roblems #ose other #roblems. !r%ly advanced medicine )ill be able to b%ild %# and restr%ct%re tiss%es. 4ere, medical nanodevices can stim%late and g%ide the body,s o)n constr%ction and re#air mechanisms to restore healthy tiss%e. 0hat is healthy tiss%e* 5t consists o" normal cells in normal #atterns in a normal matrix all organi.ed in a normal relationshi# to the s%rro%nding tiss%es. /%rgeons today 2)ith their h%ge, cr%de tools3 can "ix some #roblems at the tiss%e level. A )o%nd disr%#ts the healthy relationshi# bet)een t)o di""erent #ieces o" tiss%e, and s%rgical gl%es and s%t%res can #artly remedy this #roblem by holding the tiss%es in a #osition that #romotes healing. Di+e)ise, coronary artery by#ass s%rgery brings abo%t a more healthy overall con"ig%ration o" tiss%esIone that #rovides )or+ing #l%mbing to s%##ly blood to the heart m%scle. /%rgeons c%t and stitch, b%t then they m%st rely on the tiss%e to heal its )o%nds as best it can. 4ealing establishes healthy relationshi#s on a "iner scale. Cells m%st divide, gro), migrate, and "ill ga#s. !hey m%st reorgani.e to "orm #ro#erly connected net)or+s o" "ine blood vessels. And cells m%st lay do)n materials to "orm the str%ct%ral, intercell%lar matrixIcollagen to #rovide the #ro#er sha#e and to%ghness, or mineral grains to #rovide rigidity, as in bone. @"ten, they lay do)n %n)anted scar tiss%e instead, bloc+ing #ro#er healing.

0ith eno%gh +no)ledge o" ho) these #rocesses )or+ 2and nanoinstr%ments can hel# gather that +no)ledge3 and )ith good eno%gh so"t)are to g%ide the #rocessIa more di""ic%lt challengeI medical nanomachines )ill be able to g%ide this healing #rocess. !he #roblem here is to g%ide the motion and behavior o" a mob o" active, living cellsIa #rocess that can be termed cell herding. Cells res#ond to a host o" signals "rom their environment' to chemicals in the s%rro%nding "l%ids, to signal molec%les on neighboring cells, and to mechanical "orces a##lied to them. Cell&herding devices )o%ld %se these signals to s#%r cell division )here it is needed and to disco%rage it )here it is not. !hey )o%ld n%dge cells to enco%rage them to migrate in a##ro#riate directions, or )o%ld sim#ly #ic+ them %#, move them along, and deliver them )here needed, enco%raging them to nestle into a #ro#er relationshi# )ith their neighbors. =inally, they )o%ld stim%late cells to s%rro%nd themselves )ith the #ro#er intercell%lar&matrix materials. @rIli+e the o)ner o" a small dog )ho, on a cold day, )ra#s the beast in a )ool -ac+etIthey )o%ld directly b%ild the #ro#er s%rro%nding str%ct%res "or the cell in its ne) location. 5n this )ay, coo#erating teams o" cell&herding devices co%ld g%ide the healing or restr%ct%ring o" tiss%es, ens%ring that their cells "orm healthy #atterns and a healthy matrix and that those tiss%es have a healthy relationshi# to their s%rro%ndings. 0here necessary, cells co%ld even be ad-%sted internally, as )e )ill disc%ss later. Rebuilding +issues Again, s+in #rovides easy exam#les and may be a nat%ral #lace to start in #ractice. Peo#le o"ten )ant hair )here they have bare s+in, and bare s+in )here they have hair. Cell herding machines co%ld move or destroy hair "ollicle cells to eliminate an %n)anted hair, or gro) more o" the needed cells and arrange them into a )or+ing "ollicle )here a hair is desired. (y ad-%sting the si.e o" the "ollicle and the #ro#erties o" some o" the cells, hairs co%ld be made coarser, or "iner, or straighter, or c%rlier. All these changes )o%ld involve no #ain, toxic chemicals, or stench. Cell&herding devices co%ld move do)n into the living layers o" s+in, removing %n)anted cells, stim%lating the gro)th o" ne) cells, narro)ing %nnat%rally #rominent blood vessels, ins%ring good circ%lation by g%iding the gro)th o" any needed normal blood vessels, and moving cells and "ibers aro%nd so as to eliminate even dee# )rin+les. At the o##osite end o" the s#ectr%m, cell herding )ill revol%tioni.e treatment o" li"e&threatening conditions. =or exam#le, the most common ca%se o" heart disease is red%ced or interr%#ted s%##ly o" blood to the heart m%scle. 5n #%m#ing oxygenated blood to the rest o" the body, the heart diverts a #ortion "or its o)n %se tho%gh the coronary arteries. 0hen these blood vessels become constricted, )e s#ea+ o" coronary&artery disease. 0hen they are bloc+ed, ca%sing heart m%scle tiss%e to die, )e s#ea+ o" someone 9having a coronary,9 another term "or heart attac+. Devices )or+ing in the bloodstream co%ld nibble a)ay at atherosclerotic de#osits, )idening the a""ected blood vessels. Cell herding devices co%ld restore artery )alls and artery linings to health, by ens%ring that the right cells and s%##orting str%ct%res are in the right #laces. !his )o%ld #revent most heart attac+s. (%t )hat i" a heart attac+ has already destroyed m%scle tiss%e, leaving the #atient )ith a scarred, damaged, and #oorly "%nctioning heart* @nce again, cell&herding devices co%ld accom#lish re#airs, )or+ing their )ay into the scar tiss%e and removing it bit by bit, re#lacing it )ith "resh m%scle "iber. 5" need be, this ne) "iber can be gro)n by a##lying a series o" internal molec%lar stim%li to selected heart m%scle cells to 9remind9 them o" the instr%ctions "or gro)th that they %sed decades earlier d%ring embryonic develo#ment. Cell&herding ca#abilities sho%ld also be able to deal )ith the vario%s "orms o" arthritis. 0here this is d%e to attac+s "rom the body,s o)n imm%ne system, the cells #rod%cing the damaging antibodies can be identi"ied and eliminated. !hen a cell&herding system )o%ld )or+ inside the -oint )here it )o%ld remove diseased tiss%es, calci"ied s#%rs, and so "orth, then re)or+ #atterns o" cells and intercell%lar material to "orm a healthy, smoothly )or+ing, and #ain&"ree -oint. Clearly, learning to re#air hearts and learning to re#air -oints )ill have some basic technologies in common, b%t m%ch o"

the research and develo#ment )ill have to be devoted to s#eci"ic tiss%es and s#eci"ic circ%mstances. A similar #rocessIb%t again, s#ecially ada#ted to the circ%mstances at handIco%ld be %sed to strengthen and resha#e bone, correcting osteo#orosis. 5n dentistry, this sort o" #rocess co%ld be %sed to "ill cavities, not )ith amalgam, b%t )ith nat%ral dentin and enamel. Aeversing the ravages o" #eriodontal disease )ill someday be straight"or)ard, )ith nanomedical devices to clean #oc+ets, -oin tiss%es, and g%ide regro)th. Even missing teeth co%ld be regro)n, )ith eno%gh control over cell behavior. Working on +ells 8oving thro%gh tiss%es )itho%t leaving a trail o" disr%#tion )ill re$%ire devices able to mani#%late and direct the motions o" cells, and to re#air them. 8%ch remains to be learnedIand )ill be easy to learn )ith nanoscale toolsIb%t today,s +no)ledge o" cells is eno%gh "or a start on the #roblem o" ho) to do s%rgery on cells. Cell biology is a booming "ield, even today. Cells can be made to live and gro) in laboratory c%lt%res i" they are #laced in a li$%id )ith s%itable n%trients, oxygen, and the rest. Even )ith today,s cr%de techni$%es, m%ch has been learned abo%t ho) cells res#ond to di""erent chemicals, to di""erent neighbors, and even to being #o+ed and c%t )ith needles. Cond%cting a ro%gh sort o" s%rgery on individ%al cells has been ro%tine "or many years in scienti"ic laboratories. !oday, researchers can in-ect ne) D A into cells %sing a tiny needleB small #%nct%res in a cell membrane a%tomatically reseal. (%t both these techni$%es %se tools that on a cell%lar scale are large and cl%msy&li+e doing s%rgery )ith an ax or a )rec+ing ball, instead o" a scal#el. ano&scale tools )ill enable medical #roced%res involving delicate s%rgery on individ%al cells. Eli inating 4iruses by Cell .urgery /ome viral diseases )ill res#ond to treatments that destroy vir%ses in the nose and throat, or in the bloodstream. !he "l% and common cold are exam#les. 8any others )o%ld be greatly im#roved by this, b%t not eliminated. All vir%ses )or+ by in-ecting their genes into a cell and ta+ing over its molec%lar machinery, %sing it to #rod%ce more vir%ses. !his is #art o" )hat ma+es viral illnesses so hard to treatImost o" the action is #er"ormed by the body,s o)n molec%lar machines, )hich can,t be inter"ered )ith on a )holesale basis. 0hen the imm%ne system deals )ith a viral illness, it both attac+s "ree vir%s #articles be"ore they enter cells, and attac+s in"ected cells be"ore they can ch%rn o%t too many more vir%s #articles. /ome vir%ses, tho%gh, insert their genes among the genes o" the cell, and lay lo). !he cell can seem entirely normal to the imm%ne system, "or months or years, %ntil the viral genes are triggered into action and begin the in"ective #rocess ane). !his #attern is res#onsible "or the #ersistence o" her#es in"ections, and "or the slo), deadly #rogress o" A5D/. !hese vir%ses can be eliminated by molec%lar&level cell%lar s%rgery. !he re$%ired devices co%ld be small eno%gh to "it entirely within the cell, i" need be. Greg =ahy, )ho heads the @rgan Cryo#reservation Pro-ect at the American Aed Cross,s Herome 4olland !rans#lantation Daboratory, )rites, 9Calc%lations im#ly that molec%lar sensors, molec%lar com#%ters, and molec%lar e""ectors can be combined into a device small eno%gh to "it easily inside a single cell and #o)er"%l eno%gh to re#air molec%lar and str%ct%ral de"ects 2or to degrade "oreign str%ct%res s%ch as vir%ses and bacteria3 as ra#idly as they acc%m%late. . . .!here is no reason s%ch systems cannot be b%ilt and "%nction as designed.9 E$%ally )ell, a cell s%rgery device located o%tside a cell co%ld reach thro%gh the membrane )ith long #robes. At the ends o" the #robes )o%ld be tools and sensors along )ith, #erha#s, a small a%xiliary com#%ter. !hese )o%ld be able to reach thro%gh m%lti#le membranes, %n#ac+age and %ncoil D A, read it, re#ac+age it, and recoil it, 9#roo"reading9 the D A by com#aring the se$%ences in one cell to the se$%ences o" other cells.

@n reading the genetic se$%ence s#elling o%t the message o" the A5D/ vir%s, a molec%lar s%rgery machine co%ld be #rogrammed to res#ond li+e an imm%ne machine, destroying the cell. (%t it )o%ld seem to ma+e more sense sim#ly to c%t o%t the A5D/ vir%s genes themselves, and reconnect the ends as they )ere be"ore in"ection. (y doing this, and +illing any vir%ses "o%nd in the cell, the #roced%re )o%ld restore the cell to health. "olecular Re#airs Cells are made o" billions o" molec%les, each b%ilt by molec%lar machines. !hese molec%les sel"& assemble to "orm larger str%ct%res, many in dynamic #atterns, #er#et%ally disintegrating and re"orming. Cell&s%rgery devices )ill be able to ma+e molec%les o" sorts that may be lac+ing, )hile destroying molec%les that are damaged or #resent in excess. !hey )ill be able not only to remove viral genes, b%t to re#air chemical and radiation&ca%sed damage to the cell,s o)n genes. Advanced cell s%rgery devices )o%ld be able to re#air cells almost regardless o" their initial state o" damage. (y activating and inactivating a cell,s genes, they )ill be able to stim%late cell division and g%ide )hat ty#es o" cells are "ormed. !his )ill be a great aid to cell herding and to healing tiss%es. As s%rgeons today rely on the s#ontaneo%s, sel"&organi.ing ability o" cells and tiss%es to -oin and heal the #arts they mani#%late, so cell&s%rgery devices )ill rely on the s#ontaneo%s sel"&organi.ing ca#abilities o" molec%les to -oin and 9heal9 the #arts they #%t together. 4ealing o" a s%rgical )o%nd involves s)ee#ing %# dead cells, gro)ing ne) cells, and a slo) and gen%inely #ain"%l #rocess o" tiss%e reorgani.ation. 5n contrast, the -oining o" molec%les is almost instantaneo%s and occ%rs on a scale "ar belo) that o" the most sensitive #ain rece#tor. 94ealing9 )ill not begin after the re#air devices have done their )or+, as it does in conventional s%rgery' rather, )hen they com#lete their )or+, the tiss%e )ill have been healed. 5ealing !ody and Li'b !he ability to herd cells and to #er"orm molec%lar re#airs and cell s%rgery )ill o#en ne) vistas "or medicine. !hese abilities a##ly on a small scale, b%t their e""ects can be large scale. Correcting Che istry 5n many diseases, the body as a )hole s%""ers "rom misreg%lation o" the signaling molec%les that travel thro%gh its "l%ids. 8any are rare' C%shing,s disease, Grave,s disease, Paget,s disease, Addison,s disease, Conn,s syndrome, Prader&Dabhart&0illi syndrome. @thers are common' millions o" older )omen s%""er "rom osteo#orosis, the )ea+ening o" bones that can accom#any lo)ered estrogen levels. Diabetes +ills "re$%ently eno%gh to ran+ in the to# ten ca%ses o" death in the ?nited /tates.B the n%mber o" individ%als +no)n to have it do%bles every "i"teen years. 5t is the leading ca%se o" blindness in the ?nited /tates, )ith other com#lications incl%ding +idney damage, cataracts, and cardiovasc%lar damage. !oday,s molec%lar medicine tries to solve these tro%bles by s%##lying missing molec%les' diabetics in-ect additional ins%lin. 0hile hel#"%l, this doesn,t c%re the disease or eliminate all sym#toms. 5n an era o" molec%lar s%rgery, #hysicians co%ld choose instead to re#air the de"ective organ, so it can reg%late its o)n chemicals again, and to read-%st the metabolic #ro#erties o" other cells in the body to match. !his )o%ld be a tr%e healing, "ar better than today,s #artial "ix. @nly no) are researchers ma+ing #rogress on another "re$%ent #roblem o" metabolic reg%lation' obesity. @nce this )as tho%ght to have one sim#le ca%se 2cons%ming excess calories3 and one main res%lt 2greater ro%ndness than "avored by today,s aesthetics3, b%t both ass%m#tions #roved )rong. @besity is a serio%s medical #roblem, increasing the ris+ o" diabetes mellit%s, osteoarthritis, degenerative diseases o" the heart, arteries, and +idneys, and shortening li"e ex#ectancy. And the s%##osed ca%se, sim#le overeating, has been sho)n to be incorrectIsomething dieters had al)ays s%s#ected, as they )atched thinner colleag%es gorge and yet gain no )eight.

!he ability to lay in stores o" "at )as a great bene"it to #eo#le once %#on a time, )hen "ood s%##lies )ere irreg%lar, nomadism and mara%ding bands made "ood storage di""ic%lt and ris+y, and starvation )as a common ca%se o" death. @%r bodies are still ada#ted to that )orld, and reg%late "at reserves accordingly. !his is )hy dieting o"ten has #erverse e""ects. !he body, )hen starved, res#onds by attem#ting to b%ild %# greater reserves o" "at at its next o##ort%nity. !he main e""ect o" exercise in )eight red%ction isn,t to b%rn %# calories, b%t to signal the body to ada#t itsel" "or e""icient mobility. @besity there"ore seems to be a matter o" chemical signals )ithin the body, signals to store "at "or "amine or to become lean "or motion. anomedicine )ill be able to reg%late these signals in the bloodstream, and to ad-%st ho) individ%al cells res#ond to them in the body. !he latter )o%ld even ma+e #ossible the el%sive 9s#ot red%ction #rogram9 to resha#e the distrib%tion o" body "at. 4ere, as )ith many #otential a##lications o" nanotechnology, the #roblem may be solved by other means "irst. /ome #roblems, tho%gh, )ill almost s%rely re$%ire nanomedicine. New 1rgans and -i bs /o "ar )e,ve seen ho) medical nanotechnology )o%ld be %sed in the sim#ler a##lications o%tside tiss%esIs%ch as in the bloodIthen inside tiss%es, and "inally inside cells. Consider ho) these abilities )ill "it together "or victims o" a%tomobile and motorcycle accidents. anoman%"act%red medical devices )ill be o" dramatic val%e to those )ho have s%""ered massive tra%ma. !a+e the case o" a #atient )ith a cr%shed or severed s#inal cord high in the bac+ or in the nec+. !he latest research gives ho#e that )hen s%ch #atients are treated #rom#tly a"ter the in-%ry, #aralysis may be at least #artially avoidable, sometimes. (%t those )hose in-%ries )eren,t treatedIincl%ding virt%ally all o" today,s #atientsIremain #araly.ed. 0hile research contin%es on a variety o" techni$%es "or attem#ting to aid a s#ontaneo%s healing #rocess, #ros#ects "or reversing this sort o" damage %sing conventional medicine remain blea+. 0ith the techni$%es disc%ssed above, it )ill become #ossible to remove scar tiss%e and to g%ide cell gro)th so as to #rod%ce healthy arrangements o" the cells on a microsco#ic scale. 0ith the right molec%lar&scale #o+ing and #rodding o" the cell n%cle%s, even nerve cells o" the sorts "o%nd in the brain and s#inal cord can be ind%ced to divide. 0here nerve cells have been destroyed, there need be no shortage o" re#lacements. !hese technologies )ill event%ally enable medicine to heal damaged s#inal cords, reversing #aralysis. !he ability to g%ide cell gro)th and division and to direct the organi.ation o" tiss%es )ill be s%""icient to regro) entire organs and limbs, not merely to re#air )hat has been damaged. !his )ill enable medicine to restore #hysical health des#ite the most grievo%s in-%ries. 5" this seems hard to believe, recall that medical advances have shoc+ed the )orld be"ore no). !o those in the #ast, the idea o" c%tting #eo#le o#en )ith +nives ainlessly )o%ld have seemed mirac%lo%s, b%t s%rgical anesthesia is no) ro%tine. Di+e)ise )ith bacterial in"ections and antibiotics, )ith the eradication o" small#ox, and the vaccine "or #olio' Each tamed a deadly terror, and each is no) hal"&"orgotten history. @%r g%t sense o" )hat seems li+ely has little to do )ith )hat can and cannot be done by medical technology. 5t has more to do )ith o%r habit%al "ears, incl%ding the "ear o" vain ho#es. >et )hat ama.es one generation seems obvio%s and even boring to the next. !he "irst baby born a"ter each brea+thro%gh gro)s %# )ondering )hat all the excitement )as abo%t. (esides, nano&scale medicine )on,t be a c%re&all. Consider a "i"ty&year&old mentally retarded man, )ith a mind li+e a t)o&year&old,s, or a )oman )ith a brain t%mor that has s#read to the #oint that her #ersonality has changed' 4o) co%ld they be 9healed9* o healing o" tiss%es co%ld re#lace a missed li"etime o" ad%lt ex#erience, nor can it re#lace lost in"ormation "rom a severely damaged brain. !he best #hysicians co%ld do )o%ld be to bring the #atients to some #hysically healthy condition. @ne can )ish "or more, b%t sometimes it )on,t be #ossible.

First (id !hro%gho%t the cent%ries, medicine has been constrained to maintain "%nctioning tiss%es, since once tiss%es sto# "%nctioning, they can,t heal themselves. 0ith molec%lar s%rgery to carry o%t the healing directly, medical #riorities change drasticallyI"%nction is no longer absol%tely necessary. 5n "act, a #hysician able to %se molec%lar s%rgery )o%ld #re"er to o#erate on non"%nctioning, str%ct%rally stable tiss%e than on tiss%e that has been allo)ed to contin%e mal"%nctioning %ntil its str%ct%re )as lost. (rain t%mors are an exam#le' !hey destroy the brain,s str%ct%re, and )ith it the #atient,s s+ills, memories, and #ersonality. Physicians in the "%t%re sho%ld be able to immediately interr%#t this #rocess, to sto# the "%nctioning o" the brain to stabili.e the #atient "or treatment. !echni$%es available today can sto# tiss%e "%nction )hile #reserving tiss%e str%ct%re. Greg =ahy.i=ahy, GregB, in his )or+ on organ #reservation at the American Aed Cross, is develo#ing a techni$%e "or vitri"ying animal +idneysIma+ing them into a lo)&tem#erat%re, crystal&"ree glassI)ith the goal o" maintaining their str%ct%re s%ch that, )hen bro%ght bac+ to room tem#erat%re, they can be trans#lanted. /ome +idneys have been cooled to &FC TdegBC, )armed bac+ %#, and then "%nctioned a"ter trans#lantation. A variety o" other #roced%res can also stabili.e tiss%es on a long&term basis. !hese #roced%res enable many cellsIb%t not )hole tiss%esIto s%rvive and recover )itho%t hel#B advanced molec%lar re#air and cell s%rgery )ill #res%mably ti# the balance, enabling cells, tiss%es, and organs to recover and heal. 0hen a##lied to stabili.ing a )hole #atient, s%ch a condition can be called biostasis. A #atient in biostasis can be +e#t there inde"initely %ntil the re$%ired medical hel# arrives. /o in the "%t%re, the $%estion 9Can this #atient be restored to health*9 )ill be ans)ered 9>es, i" the #atient,s brain is intact, and )ith it the #atient,s mind.9 /andra Dee Adamson o" the ational /#ace /ociety has her eyes on distant goals. /ome have #ro#osed that travel to the stars )o%ld ta+e generations, #reventing anyone on Earth "rom ever ma+ing the tri#. (%t she notes that biostasis )ill 9give ho#e to some "earless advent%rers )ho )ill ris+ s%s#ension and s%bse$%ent reanimation so they can see the stars "or themselves.9 Plague Insurance 8edical nanotechnologies #romise to extend healthy li"e, b%t i" history is any g%ide, they may also avert s%dden massive death. !he )ord lague is rarely heard today, exce#t in relation to A5D/B it calls %# visions o" the (lac+ Death o" the 8iddle Ages, )hen one third o" E%ro#e died in 1FG<&7C. A vir%lent in"l%en.a str%c+ in 191;, hal" lost in the ne)s o" the =irst 0orld 0ar' ho) many o" %s reali.e that it +illed at least EC million* Peo#le o"ten act as tho%gh #lag%es )ere gone "or good, as i" sanitation and antibiotics had van$%ished them. (%t as doctors are "orever telling their #atients, antibiotics +ill bacteria, b%t are %seless "or vir%ses. !he "l%, the common cold, her#es, and A5D/I none has a really e""ective treatment, beca%se all are ca%sed by vir%ses. 5n some A"rican co%ntries, as m%ch as 1C #ercent o" the #o#%lation is estimated to be in"ected )ith the A5D/&ca%sing 45J vir%s. 0itho%t a c%re soon, the stee# rise in deaths "rom A5D/ still lies in the "%t%re. A5D/ stands as a grim reminder that the great #lag%es o" history are not behind %s. +he +hreat e) diseases contin%e to a##ear today as they have thro%gho%t history. !oday,s #o#%lation, "ar larger than that o" any #revio%s cent%ry, #rovides a h%ge, "ertile territory "or their s#read. !oday,s trans#ortation systems can s#read vir%ses "rom continent to continent in a single day. 0hen shi#s sailed or ch%rned their )ay across the seas, an in"ected #assenger )as li+ely to sho) "%ll& blo)n disease be"ore arrival, #ermitting $%arantine. (%t "e) diseases can be g%aranteed to sho) themselves in the ho%rs o" a single aircra"t "light.

/o "ar as is +no)n, every s#ecies o" organism, "rom bacteri%m to )hale, is a""licted )ith vir%ses. Animal vir%ses sometimes 9-%m# the s#ecies ga#9 to in"ect other animals, or #eo#le. 8ost scientists believe that the ancestors o" the A5D/ vir%s co%ld, %ntil recently, in"ect only certain A"rican mon+eys. !hen these vir%ses made the inters#ecies -%m#. A similar -%m# occ%rred in the 19<Cs )hen scientists in 0est Germany, )or+ing )ith cells "rom mon+eys in ?ganda, s%ddenly "ell ill. Do.ens )ere in"ected, and several died o" a disease that ca%sed both blood clots and bleeding, ca%sed by )hat is no) named the 8arb%rg vir%s. 0hat i" the 8arb%rg vir%s had s#read )ith a snee.e, li+e in"l%en.a or the common cold* 0e thin+ o" h%man #lag%es as a health #roblem, b%t )hen they hit o%r "ello) s#ecies, )e tend to see them "rom an environmental #ers#ective. 5n the late 19;Cs, over hal" the harbor&seal #o#%lation in large #arts o" the orth /ea s%ddenly died, leading many at "irst to blame #oll%tion. !he ca%se, tho%gh, a##ears to be a distem#er vir%s that made the -%m# "rom dogs. (iologists )orry that the vir%s co%ld in"ect seal s#ecies aro%nd the )orld, since distem#er vir%s can s#read by aerosolsIthat is, by co%ghingIand seals live in close #hysical contact. /o "ar its mortality rate has been <C to 6C #ercent. 0hat o" A5D/ itsel"' Co%ld it change and give rise to a "orm able to s#read, say, as colds do* obel Da%reate 4o)ard 8. !emin has said, 95 thin+ that )e can very con"idently say that this can,t ha##en.9 obel Da%reate Hosh%a Dederberg, #resident o" Aoc+e"eller ?niversity in e) >or+ City, re#lied, 95 don,t share yo%r con"idence abo%t )hat can and cannot ha##en.9 4e #oints o%t that 9there is no reason a great #lag%e co%ld not ha##en again. . . .0e live in evol%tionary com#etition )ith microbesIbacteria and vir%ses. !here is no g%arantee that )e )ill be the s%rvivors.9 1ur $nade/uate (bilities (acterial diseases are mostly controllable today. /anitation limits the )ays in )hich #lag%e can s#read. !hese meas%res are -%st good eno%gh to l%ll %s into imagining the #roblem is solved. Jir%ses are common, vir%ses m%tateB some s#read thro%gh the air, and some are deadly. Plag%es sho) that "ast&s#reading diseases can be deadly, and e""ective antiviral dr%gs are still rare. !he only really e""ective treatments "or viral diseases are #reventive, not c%rative. !hey )or+ either by #reventing ex#os%re, or by ex#osing the body be"orehand to dead or harmless or "ragmentary "orms o" the vir%s, to #re#are the imm%ne system "or "%t%re ex#os%re. As the long str%ggle "or an A5D/ vaccine sho)s, one cannot co%nt on modern medicine to identi"y a ne) vir%s and #rod%ce an e""ective vaccine )ithin a single month or year or even a single decade. (%t in"l%en.a e#idemics s#read "ast, and 8arb%rg 55 or A5D/ 55 or something entirely ne) and deadly may do the same. Doing 2etter !he deaths "rom the next great #lag%e co%ld have beg%n in a village last )ee+, or co%ld begin next year, or a year be"ore )e learn to deal )ith ne) viral illnesses #rom#tly and e""ectively. 0ith l%c+, the #lag%e )ill )ait %ntil a year a"ter. 5mm%ne machines co%ld be set to +ill a ne) vir%s as soon as it is identi"ied. !he instr%ments nanotechnology brings )ill ma+e viral identi"ication easy. /ome day, the means )ill be in #lace to de"end h%man li"e against viral catastro#he. =rom eliminating vir%ses to re#airing individ%al cells, im#roving o%r control o" the molec%lar )orld )ill im#rove health care. 5mm%ne machines )or+ing in the bloodstream seem abo%t as com#lex as some engineering #ro-ects h%man beings have already com#letedI#ro-ects li+e large satellites. @ther medical nanotechnologies seem to be o" a higher order o" com#lexity. $n 0ol.ing 5ard Proble's /ome)here in the #rogression "rom relatively sim#le imm%ne devices to molec%lar s%rgery,

)e,ve crossed the "%..y line bet)een systems that teams o" clever biomedical engineers co%ld design in a reasonable length o" time and ones that might ta+e decades or #rove im#ossibly com#lex. Designing a nanomachine ca#able o" entering a cell, reading its D A, "inding and removing a deadly viral D A se$%ence, and then restoring the cell to normal )o%ld be a mon%mental -ob. /%ch tas+s are advanced a##lications o" nanotechnology, "ar beyond mere com#%ters, man%"act%ring e$%i#ment, and hal"&)itted 9smart materials.9 !o s%cceed )ithin a reasonable n%mber o" years, )e may need to a%tomate m%ch o" the engineering #rocess, incl%ding so"t)are engineering. !oday,s best ex#ert systems are no)here near so#histicated eno%gh. !he so"t)are m%st be able to a##ly #hysical #rinci#les, engineering r%les, and "ast com#%tation to generate and test ne) designs. Call it automated engineering. A%tomated engineering )ill #rove %se"%l in advanced nanomedicine beca%se o" the sheer n%mber o" small #roblems to be solved. !he h%man body contains h%ndreds o" +inds o" cells "orming a h%ge n%mber o" tiss%es and organs. !a+en as a )hole 2and ignoring the imm%ne system3, the body contains h%ndreds o" tho%sands o" di""erent +inds o" molec%les. Per"orming com#lex molec%lar re#airs on a damaged cell might re$%ire solving millions o" se#arate, re#etitive #roblems. !he molec%lar machinery in cell s%rgery devices )ill need to be controlled by com#lex so"t)are, and it )o%ld be best to be able to delegate the tas+ o" )riting that so"t)are to an a%tomated system. ?ntil then, or %ntil a lot o" more conventional design )or+ gets done, nanomedicine )ill have to "oc%s on sim#ler #roblems. (ging 0here does aging "it in the s#ectr%m o" di""ic%lty* !he deterioration that comes )ith aging is increasingly recogni.ed as a "orm o" disease, one that )ea+ens the body and ma+es it s%sce#tible to a host o" other diseases. Aging, in this vie), is as nat%ral as small#ox and b%bonic #lag%e, and more s%rely "atal. ?nli+e b%bonic #lag%e, ho)ever, aging res%lts "rom internal mal"%nctions in the molec%lar machinery o" the body, and a medical condition )ith so many di""erent sym#toms co%ld be com#lex. /%r#risingly, s%bstantial #rogress is being made )ith #resent techni$%es, )itho%t even a r%dimentary ability to #er"orm cell s%rgery in a medical context. /ome researchers believe that aging is #rimarily the res%lt o" a "airly small n%mber o" reg%latory #rocesses, and many o" these have already been sho)n to be alterable. 5" so, aging may be tac+led s%ccess"%lly be"ore even sim#le cell re#air is available. (%t the h%man aging #rocess is not )ell eno%gh %nderstood to enable a con"ident #ro-ection o" thisB "or exam#le, the n%mber o" reg%latory #rocesses is not yet +no)n. A thoro%gh sol%tion may )ell re$%ire advanced nanotechnology&based medicine, b%t a thoro%gh sol%tion seems #ossible. !he res%lt )o%ld not be immortality, -%st m%ch longer, healthier lives "or those )ho )ant them. Restoring .#ecies A challenging #roblem related to medicine 2and to biostasis3 is that o" s#ecies restoration. !oday, researchers are care"%lly #reserving sam#les "rom s#ecies no) becoming extinct. 5n some cases, all they have are tiss%e sam#les. =or other s#ecies, they,ve been able to save germ cells in the ho#e that they )ill be able to im#lant "ertili.ed eggs into related s#ecies and th%s bring the 2nearly*3 extinct s#ecies bac+. Each cell ty#ically contains the organism,s com#lete genetic in"ormation, b%t )hat can be done )ith this* 8any researchers today collect sam#les "or #reservation thin+ing only o" the im#lantation scenario' one that they +no) has already been made to )or+. @ther researchers are ta+ing a broader vie)' the Center "or Genetic Aeso%rces and 4eritage at the ?niversity o" O%eensland is a leader in the e""ort. Daryl Edmondson, coordinator o" the gene library, ex#lains that the center is %ni$%e beca%se it )ill 9actively collect data. 8ost other libraries sim#ly collate their o)n collections.9 Director Hohn 8attic+ describes it as a 9genetic Do%vre9 and #oints o%t that i" genes "rom today,s endangered s#ecies aren,t #reserved, 9s%bse$%ent generations )ill see )e had the technology to +ee# PD AR so"t)are and )ill as+ )hy )e didn,t do it.9 0ith this in"ormation and the sorts o" molec%lar re#air and cell&s%rgery ca#abilities )e have disc%ssed, lost s#ecies can someday be ret%rned to active li"e again as habitats are restored.

@ne s%ch center isn,t eno%gh' the O%eensland center "oc%ses on A%stralian s#ecies 2nat%rally eno%gh3 and has limited "%nds. (esides, anything so #recio%s as the genetic in"ormation o" an endangered s#ecies sho%ld be stored in many se#arate locations "or sa"ety. 0e need to ta+e o%t an ins%rance #olicy on Earth,s genetic diversity )ith a broader net)or+ o" genetic libraries, concentrating s#ecial attention on gathering biological sam#les "rom the "ast&disa##earing rain "orests. /cienti"ic st%dy can )ait' the %rgency o" the sit%ation calls "or a vac%%m&cleaner a##roach. !he =oresight 5nstit%te is #romoting this e""ort thro%gh its (ioArchive Pro-ectB interested readers can )rite to the address at the end o" the A"ter)ord.

Cha#ter ,, -i its and Downsides !he disc%ssions o" #otential economic, medical, and environmental bene"its may have given the "alse im#ression that nanotechnology )ill create a )ondro%s %to#ia in )hich all h%man #roblems are solved and )e all live ha##ily ever a"ter. !his is even more mista+en than the idea that ne) technologies al)ays ca%se more #roblems than they solve. 8any o" the main constraints and di""ic%lties "aced by #eo#le are based not on technology or its lac+, b%t instead by the very nat%re o" the )orld )e live in and the essence o" o%r h%manness. 5ncreasing a""l%ence based on molec%lar man%"act%ring )on,t end economic #roblems any more than #ast increases in a""l%ence have. 0ilderness can still be destroyedB #eo#le can be o##ressedB "inancial mar+ets can be %nstableB trade )ars can be )agedB in"lation can soarB individ%als, com#anies, and nations can go into debtB b%rea%cracy can sti"le innovationB tax levels can become cri##lingB )ars and terrorism can rage. one o" these )ill a%tomatically be sto##ed by advanced technology. 0hat is more, the #otential bene"its o" ne) technologies aren,t a%tomatic. anotechnology could be %sed to restore the environment, to s#read )ealth, and to c%re most illness. (%t )ill it* !his de#ends on h%man action, )or+ing )ithin the limits set by the real )orld. !his cha#ter "irst describes some o" the limits to )hat nanotechnology can accom#lish, and then some o" the adverse side e""ects o" its basically good a##lications. !he next )ill disc%ss the #roblem o" accidents, )hich seems manageable, and then the "ar greater #roblem o" #otential ab%se o" ne) ca#abilities. 0o'e Li'its of Nanotechnology !he )orld im#oses limits on )hat )e can do. !echnology in general 2and nanotechnology in #artic%lar3 can #rovide #adding "or %s as )e thro) o%rselves against these hard, shar# limitations, and can sometimes hel# %s sli# #ast old limits thro%gh #revio%sly %n+no)n ga#s. Event%ally, tho%gh, )e )ill enco%nter ne) limits. 5n the end, solid constraints )ill limit h%man action no matter ho) m%ch )e -%ggle atoms and molec%les, or the bits and bytes o" in"ormation. Det,s loo+ at some o" these, starting )ith the most abstract and long termIthe most de"inite and hardest to avoidIand moving to)ard the more #ersonal and near term. $n*or ation -oss 8any #roblems di""er "%ndamentally "rom the material #roblems o" limited matter and energy' they involve in"ormation. /ome o" the most #recio%s stores o" in"ormation in the )orld today are the genetic codes o" the bios#here. !his in"ormation, di""erent "or virt%ally every individ%al organism, is the #rod%ct o" millions o" events that )e are inca#able o" modeling or recreating. 0hen this in"ormation is lost, it is lost "orever. 0hen the atoms encoding this in"ormation are thoro%ghly scattered, there seems to be no )ay to retrieve it. 0ith any s#ecies, most genetic in"ormation is shared in common, "o%nd in all members o" that s#ecies. (%t the variations in genetic code bet)een individ%als are im#ortant, both to the individ%als themselves and to the health and #ros#ects o" the s#ecies as a )hole. Consider the northern )hite rhino, )hose n%mbers have dro##ed to an estimated thirty&t)o animals, or the Cali"ornia condor, o" )hich only "orty remain, all in ca#tivity. Even i" biologists s%cceed in reestablishing these s#eciesI eight condors )ere hatched in 19;9Im%ch o" the diversity o" their genetic in"ormation has been lost. 0orse yet are extinctions o" s#ecies "or )hich no tiss%e sam#les )ere saved. !he "%t%re may see some ama.ing recoveries' Dry s+in and bones may yield a com#lete set o" genes )hen si"ted by molec%lar machinery, and even c%rrent techni$%es have been %sed to recover genes "rom an ancient

lea", almost EC million years old. @%r eyes and instr%ments cannot yet tell %s ho) m%ch in"ormation "rom the #ast remains, b%t )e do +no) that genetic in"ormation is being lost every day, and once lost, it is irretrievable. Physical -i its and Nonsense Peo#le have o"ten been )rong abo%t #hysical limits, con"%sing the limits o" their technology )ith the limits o" the #ossible. As a res%lt, learned men "irst dismissed the idea o" heavier&than&air "light, and then dismissed the idea o" "lying to the 8oon. >et #hysical limits are real, and all technologyI #ast, #resent, and "%t%reI)ill stay )ithin those limits. !here is even reason to s%s#ect that some o" those limits are )here the learned no) believe them to be. anotechnology )ill ma+e it #ossible to #%sh closer to the real limits set by nat%ral la), b%t it )ill not change those la)s or the limits they set. 5t )ill not a""ect the la) o" gravity, the gravitational constant, the s#eed o" light, the charge o" the electron, the radi%s o" the hydrogen atom, the val%e o" Planc+,s constant, the e""ects o" the %ncertainty #rinci#le, the #rinci#le o" least action, the mass o" the #roton, the la)s o" thermodynamics, or the boiling #oint o" )ater. anotechnology )on,t ma+e energy or matter "rom nothing. 5t seems a good bet that no one )ill b%ild a "aster&than&light s#acecra"t, or an antigravity machine, or a cable t)ice as strong as diamond. !here are limits. /cience today may be )rong abo%t some limits, b%t scienti"ic +no)ledge is #ractically de"ined to be o%r best in"ormation abo%t ho) the )orld )or+s, so it isn,t )ise to bet against it. !here )ill be claims that nanotechnology )ill be able to do things that it can,t, or that ca#abilities are aro%nd the corner )hen they aren,t. /ometimes these )ill be innocent errors, sometimes they )ill be c%l#ably st%#id errors, and sometimes they )ill be )hat amo%nts to "ra%d. Among the #roblems that nanotechnology cannot solve is that o" misg%ided claims, by #eo#le calling themselves 9scientists,9 9engineers,9 or 9b%siness#eo#le,9 that they have a big technical brea+thro%gh )orth a "ort%ne. Every interesting ne) technology, #artic%larly in its early days, is a chaotic mix o" com#etent )or+ers and charlatans. =or every !homas Edison inventing %se"%l #rod%cts s%ch as light b%lbs or the #rec%rsor o" movie #ro-ectors, there )ere #eo#le #romoting electric hairbr%shes to c%re baldness, and electric shoes, electric belts, electric hatsIthe list goes onIthat a%thoritatively claimed c%res "or in"ertility, over)eight, %nder)eight, and all the ills and discom"orts o" man+ind. !oday, )e la%gh at the cred%lity o" o%r "ore"athers )ho bo%ght these gadgetsB )e sho%ldn,t, %nless )e la%gh at o%r o)n times as )ell. Po#ulation at%ral la) im#oses limits, b%t so does the nat%re o" h%man beings. !hese )ill contin%e as long as #eo#le do. Ae#rod%ction is a dee#ly ingrained instinct en"orced by the march o" time, )hich r%thlessly discards the genetic material o" all )ho neglect it. 8any )o%ld arg%e that the Earth is already over#o#%lated. 0hile nanotechnology co%ld enable the c%rrent #o#%lation, and even a greatly increased one, to live more lightly on the Earth, there )ill still be limits to Earth,s ca#acity. !he norms o" h%man li"e are sha#ed by ancient #atterns' high rates o" in"ant or childhood mortality have been "acts o" li"e "or millennia, and having many, many children has been a )ay to ens%re that one or t)o )ill s%rvive to )or+ on the "arm, and to care "or yo% in yo%r old age. Darge "amilies nat%rally become traditional. 0hen modern medicine and reliable "ood s%##lies change those conditionsIas they have, in c%lt%ral terms, virt%ally overnightIbehavior does not shi"t as $%ic+ly. !he res%lt is the !hird 0orld #o#%lation boom. 5n 0estern co%ntries, )here there has been time "or behavior to ada#t, a h%ge "amily is the exce#tion. 5t might seem that o%r #roblem is solved. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring can ma+e everyone )ealthy, and )ealthy #o#%lations today have stable or shrin+ing #o#%lations. !he Earth can s%##ort more

#eo#le )ith advanced technologies, and these )ill also o#en %# the vast room and reso%rces o" the )orld beyond Earth. 0o%ld that this )ere tr%e. 5" 99 #ercent o" the #eo#le in a #o#%lation res#ond to )ealth by red%cing childbearing, the #o#%lation )ill indeed stabili.e or shrin+, "or a )hile. (%t #o#%lations are not %ni"orm. 0hat o" the 1 #ercent, say, )ho are members o" a minority )ith di""erent val%es* 5" that minority has a gro)th rate o" 7 #ercent #er year, then in ninety&"ive years they )ill be the ma-ority, and in one tho%sand years their #o#%lation )ill have gro)n by a "actor o" 1,7CC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC,CCC, i" reso%rce limits or genocide haven,t intervened. ote that the 4%tterites o" orth America, a reasonably )ealthy religio%s gro%# vie)ing "ertility control as a sin and high "ertility as a blessing, have managed an average o" ten children #er )oman. Given eno%gh time, ex#onential gro)th o" even the smallest #o#%lation can cons%me all the reso%rces in reach. !he right to re#rod%ce is o"ten regarded as basic, as ill%strated by the o%trage at re#orts o" "orced abortion in the Peo#le,s Ae#%blic o" China. !he 4%tterites and many others regard it as #art o" their "reedom o" religion. (%t )hat ha##ens )hen #arents have more children than they can s%##ortI does redistrib%tion solve the #roblem* (f re#rod%ction is not "orcibly s%##ressed, and if reso%rces are "orcibly and re eatedly redistrib%ted so that each h%man being has a ro%ghly e$%al share, then each #erson,s share )ill steadily shrin+. Even given the most o#timistic ass%m#tions regarding available reso%rces, )ith a #olicy o" reso%rce redistrib%tion and %nlimited re#rod%ction, the amo%nt #er #erson )o%ld event%ally be ins%""icient to s%stain li"e. !his #olicy m%st be avoided, beca%se i" it is "ollo)ed, it )ill +ill everyone. As soon as )e grant that any entity is entitled to certain rightsI)hether that entity be a h%man child, an animal, or some "%t%re arti"icial intelligenceIthe $%estion arises o" )ho is res#onsible "or #roviding reso%rces to s%##ort it )hen it can,t do so "or itsel". !he above arg%ment indicates that a #olicy o" coercion by some central #o)er to com#el the entire #o#%lation to s%##ort an ex#onentially ex#loding #o#%lation o" these individ%als )o%ld lead directly to disaster. ?ltimately, this res#onsibility m%st rest )ith the entities, initiator' the designer o" the arti"icial intelligence, the o)ner o" the #et, the #arents o" the child. o ne) technology can magically remove the limits im#osed by nat%ral la), and thereby li"t the b%rden o" h%man res#onsibility. 0olutions +ause Proble's Every time a technology solves a #roblem, it creates ne) #roblems. !his doesn,t mean that the change is ne%tral, or "or the )orse, o" co%rse. !he /al+ and /abin vaccines "or #olio virt%ally destroyed the iron&l%ng ind%stry, and the #oc+et calc%lator virt%ally destroyed the slide&r%le ind%stry, b%t these advances )ere )orth the #rice o" some economic ad-%stment. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring and nanotechnology )ill bring "ar greater changes, #lacing "ar greater strains on o%r ability to ada#t. 0e sho%ldn,t be s%r#rised )hen basically bene"icial a##lications ma+e someone miserable. @%r lives are largely centered aro%nd #roblems. 5" )e can solve many o" these #roblems, the centers o" o%r lives )ill shi"t, creating "resh #roblems. !his section s+etches some o" the iss%es o" change and ada#tation more to raise $%estions than to o""er sol%tions. Change Causes Proble s 8olec%lar man%"act%ring o""ers the #ossibility o" drastic change, a change in the means o" #rod%ction more "%ndamental than the introd%ction o" ind%stry, or o" agric%lt%re. @%r economic and social str%ct%res have evolved aro%nd ass%m#tions that )ill no longer be valid. 4o) )ill )e handle the changes in the )ay )e )or+ and live* anotechnology )ill have )ide& ranging im#act in many areas, incl%ding economic, ind%strial, and social #atterns. 0hat do historical #atterns in similar circ%mstances tell %s abo%t the "%t%re*

Any #o)er"%l technology )ith broad a##lications revol%tioni.es lives, and nanotechnology )ill be no exce#tion. De#ending on one,s #oint o" vie), this may so%nd exciting or it may so%nd dist%rbing, b%t it most certainly does not so%nd com"ortable. 5n com#arison to many #ro-ections o" the t)enty&"irst cent%ry, tho%gh, nanotechnology may lead to com aratively com"ortable change. !he changes most o"ten #ro-ectedI"or a "%t%re not incl%ding nanotechnologyIhave been ecological disaster, reso%rce shortages, economic colla#se, and a slide bac+ into misery. !he rise o" nanotechnology )ill o""er an alternativeIgreen )ealthIb%t that alternative )ill bring great changes "rom the #atterns o" recent decades. !imes o" ra#id technological change are disconcerting. =or most o" h%manity,s existence, #eo#le lived in a stable #attern. !hey learned to live as their #arents had livedIby h%nting and gathering, later by "armingIand changes )ere small and grad%al. A +no)ledge o" the #ast )as a reliable g%ide to the "%t%re. /%dden changes, )hen they did occ%r, )ere a#t to be r%ino%s' invasions or nat%ral disasters. !hese s%dden changes )ere "o%ght or re#aired or s%rvived as best one co%ld. 8a+ing ma-or changes by choice )as rare, and radical innovations )ere generally "or the )orse' the old )ays at least ens%red the ancestors, s%rvival, the ne) might not. !his made c%lt%res conservative. 5t is only nat%ral that there be e""orts to resist change, b%t be"ore %nderta+ing s%ch an e""ort, it ma+es sense to examine the record o" )hat )or+s and )hat doesn,t. !he only exam#les o" s%ccess"%l change "ighters have been comm%nities that have created and maintained barricades to isolate themselves "rom the o%tside )orld socially, c%lt%rally, and technologically. =or the t)o cent%ries be"ore 1;7G, Ha#an t%rned its bac+ on the o%tside )orld, "ollo)ing a deliberate #olicy o" secl%sion. !he leaders o" Albania restricted contacts "or many yearsB only recently have they started to o#en %#. 5solation attem#ts have )or+ed better on a smaller scale, )hen #artici#ation is vol%ntary rather than decreed by government. !oday, )ithin the 4a)aiian island chain, the tiny, #rivately o)ned island o" iiha%, sixteen miles long and six miles )ide, is deliberately +e#t as a #reserve o" the nineteenth& cent%ry 4a)aiian li"estyle. @ver t)o h%ndred "%ll&blooded 4a)aiians there s#ea+ the 4a)aiian lang%age and %se no tele#hones, #l%mbing, television, and no electricity 2exce#t in the school3. !he Amish o" Pennsylvania have no s%rro%nding ocean to hel# maintain their isolation, b%t rely instead on tight social, religio%s, and technological r%les aimed at +ee#ing external technology and c%lt%re o%t, and themselves gro%#ed inB those )ho leave the "old are excl%ded. @n a national scale, attem#ts to ta+e only one #art o" the #ac+ageI)hether social or technologicalIhaven,t done )ell at all. =or decades, the /oviet ?nion and the Eastern bloc nations )elcomed 0estern technology b%t attem#ted tight restrictions on the #assage o" #eo#le, ideas, and goods. >et illegal m%sic, tho%ghts, literat%re, and other +no)ledge still cre#t inIas they do into the 5slamic co%ntries. =ighting technological change in society at large has had little s%ccess, )here that change gave some large gro%# )hat it )anted. !he most "amo%s "ighters o" technological changeIthe D%dditesI )ere %ns%ccess"%l. !hey smashed 9a%tomated9 textile machinery that )as re#lacing old hand looms d%ring the early ind%strial revol%tion in England, b%t #eo#le )anted a""ordable clothing, and smashing e$%i#ment in one #lace -%st moved the b%siness else)here. Change has sometimes been #ost#oned, as )hen a later gro%#, %nder the banner o" 9Ca#tain /)ing,9 smashed h%ndreds o" threshing machines in a )ide area o" so%thern England in 1;FC. !hey s%cceeded in +ee#ing the old, labor& intensive )ays o" harvesting "or over a generation. 5n #revio%s cent%ries, )hen the )orld )as less tightly connected by international trade, comm%nications, and trans#ortation, delays o" years and even decades co%ld be en"orced thro%gh violence or legal mane%vers s%ch as tari""s, trade barriers, reg%lations, or o%tright banning. Attem#ting to sto# or #ost#one change is less s%ccess"%l today, )hen technology moves internationally almost as easily as #eo#le doIand h%man travel is so easy that E7 million #eo#le cross the Atlantic each year. Change "ighters "ind that the #roblems they create mo%nt )ith time. Prod%cts made %sing the old,

high&cost techni$%es are %ncom#etitive. !here is no )ay to bring bac+ the 9old -obs9' they no longer ma+e sense. (%t old habits die hard, and these same res#onses to the #ros#ect o" technological change contin%e todayIignoring it, denying it, and o##osing it. /ocieties that have "o%ght change, as (ritain did, have "allen behind in a clo%d o" coal smo+e. 0hy did the D%ddites res#ond violently* Perha#s their res#onse can be attrib%ted to three "actors' =irst, the change in their lives )as s%dden and radicalB second, it a""ected a large gro%# o" #eo#le at one time, in one areaB and third, in a )orld %n#re#ared "or ra#id technological change, there )as no sa"ety net to catch the %nem#loyed. 0hile local economies might have been able to absorb a tric+le o" h%ngry laid&o"" )or+ers, they lac+ed the si.e and diversity needed to o""er other em#loyment o#tions $%ic+ly to large n%mbers o" %nem#loyed. 5n the t)entieth cent%ry, ho)ever, societies have o" necessity become some)hat better ada#ted to change. !his has been a matter o" necessity, beca%se sl%ggish comm%nities soon "all behind. 5n the ancient days o" #easant stability, there )as no need "or instit%tions li+e Consumer /e orts to st%dy and rate ne) #rod%cts, or reg%lators li+e the Environmental Protection Agency to )atch over ne) ha.ards. 0e develo#ed the needs, and )e develo#ed the instit%tions. !hese mechanisms re#resent im#ortant ada#tions, not so m%ch to the technologies o" the t)entieth cent%ry, b%t to the increasing change in technology d%ring the t)entieth cent%ry. !here is great room "or im#rovement, b%t they can #erha#s #rovide a basis "or ada#ting to the next cent%ry as )ell. Even )ith the best o" instit%tions to c%shion shoc+s and disco%rage ab%se, there )ill be #roblems. !he very act o" solving #roblems o" #rod%ctionIo" increasing )ealthI)ill create #roblems o" economic change. Clean, Decentrali5ed Production Causes Proble s @ver cent%ries, the trend has seemed to be to)ard centrali.ation, beginning )ith the rise o" "actories and ind%strial to)ns. 0hat drove these develo#ments )as the high cost o" machinery and #lant o#erations, the need to be near #o)er so%rces, the im#racticality o" trans#ortation among many small, dis#ersed sites, and the need "or "ace&to&"ace comm%nication. (eginning )ith the "irst ind%strial revol%tion, "actories em#loyed large n%mbers o" #eo#le in one #lace, leading to overcro)ding and ma+ing local economies de#endent on one ind%stry and sometimes on a single com#any. Costly e$%i#ment necessitated central locations "or textile #rod%ction, rather than the cottage ind%stries )here a lone )oman co%ld earn a livelihood carding )ool and creating thread on a s#inning )heel 2#roviding the origin o" the term s inster3. (y the 19FCs, the belie" in the virt%res o" centrali.ation and central #lanningIthe s%##osed e""iciencies and economies o" scaleIled to nation)ide or continent)ide ex#eriments in centrali.ation. (%t over the last decade, these large&scale ex#eriments have been dismantled, "rom (ritain,s #rivati.ation o" nationali.ed %tilities to the beginning o" a ret%rn to the mar+et system in Eastern E%ro#ean co%ntries. (eca%se the old limits on trans#ortation, energy so%rces, and comm%nication have "allen, b%siness is no) decentrali.ing. (et)een 19;1 and 19;<, the =orbes 7CC com#anies c%t their em#loyees by 1.; million. (%t d%ring those same years, total civilian -obs )ent %# by 9.E million. /tart& %# com#anies created 1G million -obsB small com#anies created another G.7 million. !elecomm%ting is booming, as are ne) b%sinesses, inde#endent #ro"essionals, and cottage ind%stries. 0e,ve also seen the res%rgence o" small, b%t highly diverse stores' go%rmet "ood sho#s, s#ecialty ethnic sho#s, tea and co""ee #%rveyors, organic and health "ood stores, ba+eries, yog%rt sho#s, go%rmet ice&cream stores, convenience stores o""ering t)enty&"o%r&ho%r access, sho#s selling #ac+aged "ood #l%s snac+s. !hese stores e#itomi.e something "%ndamental' At some #oint, )hat )e )ant is not a standard good at an ever chea#er #rice, b%t s#ecial things c%stomi.ed to meet o%r o)n individ%al tastes or needs. !he trend "or advanced technologies seems to be leading a)ay "rom centrali.ation. 0ill nanotechnology co%nter or accelerate this trend* (y red%cing the cost o" e$%i#ment, by red%cing the

need "or large n%mbers o" #eo#le to )or+ on one #rod%ct, and bringing greater ability to #rod%ce the c%stomi.ed goods that #eo#le )ant, nanotechnology )ill #robably contin%e the t)entieth&cent%ry trend to)ard decentrali.ation. !he res%lts, tho%gh, )ill be disr%#tive to existing b%sinesses. !he com#%ter ind%stry #erha#s #rovides a cl%e to )hat might ha##en as costs are lo)ered by nanotechnology. !he com#%ter&so"t)are ind%stry is characteri.ed by the garage&sho# start&%#. 0hen yo%r e$%i#ment is chea#Iinex#ensive PCs b%ilt aro%nd lo)&cost chi#sIand yo% can ma+e a #rod%ct by thro)ing in some ingen%ity and h%man labor, it,s #ossible to start a ne) ind%stry on a shoestring. 5n 19CC, )hen cars )ere sim#le, there )ere many car man%"act%rers. (y the 19;Cs, i" yo% )eren,t an ind%strial giant li+e General 8otors or =ord, 4onda or issan, yo% had to be Hohn De Dorean to even get a shot at ac$%iring the ca#ital to #lay in the b%siness. 5" molec%lar man%"act%ring can slash the ca#ital costs "or #rod%cing cars or other #lant&intensive e$%i#ment, )e )ill see the e$%ivalent o" garage&sho# b%sinesses s#ringing %# to o""er ne) #rod%cts, and hiring )or+ers a)ay "rom the ind%strial giants o" today -%st as the #ersonal com#%ter has destroyed the dominance o" the main"rame. !he American dream is to be an entre#rene%r, and the technological trends o" the t)entieth cent%ry #oint in that direction. anotechnology #robably contin%es it. 5n one area, ho)ever, the late t)entieth&cent%ry trend has been to)ard %ni"ormity. !he nations o" 0estern E%ro#e are in the #rocess o" %niting %nder one set o" economic r%les, and #arts o" Eastern E%ro#e are anxio%s to -oin them. 8ore and more s%#ranational and transnational organi.ations +nit the )orld together. !he gro)th o" trade has motivated economic integration. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill )or+ against this trend as )ell, #ermitting radical decentrali.ation in economic terms. !his )ill hel# gro%#s that )ish to ste# aside "rom the stream o" change, enabling them to be more inde#endent o" the t%rb%lent o%tside )orld, #ic+ing and choosing )hat technologies they %se. (%t it )ill also hel# gro%#s that )ish to "ree themselves "rom the constraints o" the international comm%nity. Economic sanctions )ill have little "orce against co%ntries that need no im#orts or ex#orts to maintain a high standard o" living. And ex#ort restrictions )ill li+e)ise do little to ham#er a military b%ild%#. (y )ea+ening the ties o" trade, molec%lar man%"act%ring threatens to )ea+en the gl%e that holds nations together. 0e need that gl%e, tho%gh, to deal )ith the arms control iss%es raised by molec%lar man%"act%ring itsel". !his #roblem, ca%sed by the #otential "or decentrali.ation, may loom large in the coming years. Even !ealth and -eisure Cause Proble s Dester 8ilbrath, #ro"essor o" sociology and #olitical science, observes, 9 anotechnologies )ill create the #roblem o" ho) to meaning"%lly and s%stainably occ%#y the time o" #eo#le )ho need not #er"orm m%ch )or+ in order to have a s%""iciency o" li"e,s goods. @%r society has never "aced this #roblem be"ore, and it is not clear )hat social restr%ct%ring )ill be re$%ired to have a good society in those circ%mstances. 0e "ace m%ch dee# social learning.9 !he )orld has had little ex#erience )ith )hat anthro#ologists call 9ab%ndance economies.9 !he native American tribes o" the Paci"ic orth)est )ere one o" those rarities. A%th (enedict, in her classic boo+ 3atterns of Culture, )rote, 9!heir civili.ation )as b%ilt %#on an am#le s%##ly o" goods, inexha%stible, and obtained )itho%t excessive ex#endit%re o" labor.9 !he K)a+i%tls became "amo%s "or their 9#otlatches9' contests in )hich they so%ght to shame their rivals by hea#ing more gi"ts %#on them than they co%ld ever ret%rn. !he #otlatches )o%ld o"ten be a year in #re#aration, last "or days, and occasionally involve destr%ction o" entire b%ildings. 5t )as certainly a color"%l "orm o" +ee#ing %# )ith the Honeses. 0hat )ill motivate %s, once )e have achieved an ab%ndance economy* 0hat )ill )e regard as )orth)hile goals to #%rs%e* 5ncreased +no)ledge, ne) art, im#roved #hiloso#hy, eliminating h%man

and #lanetary ills* 0ill )e "ind o%rselves creating a better, )iser )orld, or s%n+ in boredom and -aded no) that )e have all and )ant nothing* 5" boredom gets o%t o" hand, the lively s#ectacle o" )ealthy donors see+ing to o%tdo each other to endo) the arts, aid the #oor, and do other good deeds "or the sa+e o" #restige )o%ld be )elcome. 0hat )ill ha##en as li"e s#ans contin%e to lengthen and the time needed to ma+e a living decreases* Even today, there are #eo#le )ho, )hen con"ronted )ith the #ros#ect o" a signi"icantly longer li"e s#an, exclaim that they co%ldn,t imagine )hat they )o%ld do )ith all that time. !his res#onse can be hard to %nderstand, )hen it )o%ld ta+e a tho%sand years to )al+ all the )orld,s roads, more tho%sands o" years to read all the )orld,s boo+s, and another ten tho%sand years to have a dinner conversation )ith each o" the )orld,s #eo#le&b%t tastes di""er, and even a "e) decades o" bad television might ma+e anyone long "or the #eace o" the grave. Changing E #loy ent Causes Proble s A ma-or concern, and certainly the single area o" greatest %#heaval, is em#loyment 2)hich may become hard to disting%ish "rom leis%re3. @nce, #eo#le had little choice o" em#loyment. !o +ee# a "%ll belly, most had to )or+ at the only -ob available' #easant "arming. Event%ally, #eo#le )ill have a com#lete choice o" em#loyment' they )ill be able to +ee# a "%ll belly and a )ealthy li"estyle )hile doing )hatever they #lease. !oday, )e are abo%t hal")ay bet)een those extremes. 5n advanced economies, many di""erent -obs are deemed %se"%l eno%gh that other #eo#le )ill o""er an ade$%ate income in exchange "or the res%lt. /ome #eo#le can ma+e a living doing something they en-oyIis this )or+, or leis%re* !he im#act o" nanotechnology on #atterns o" em#loyment )ill de#end on )hen it arrives. C%rrent demogra#hics sho) a shrin+ing s%##ly o" yo%ng #eo#le entering the )or+ "orce. Agric%lt%re, the assembly line, and entry level service -obs are ex#eriencing a labor shortage, and no relie" is in sight. 5" these trends contin%e, nanotechnology may sho) %# in the midst o" a shortage o" labor. 5" it arrives late eno%gh, it may com#ete )ith ind%stries that are already nearing "%ll a%tomationB 9-ob dis#lacement9 may mean re#lacing an ind%strial robot )ith a nanomachine. Em#loyment #atterns have shi"ted radically in the #ast. @ne h%ndred and "i"ty years ago, the ?nited /tates )as an agric%lt%ral nationI<9 #ercent o" all #eo#le )or+ed the land and a gro)ing #ercentage )or+ed in ind%stry doing things li+e b%ilding steam locomotives "or (ald)in Docomotives 0or+s or tanning leather "or the giant Central Deather mono#oly. (y the early t)entieth cent%ry, agric%lt%re )as )aning in n%mbers b%t increasing in #rod%ctivityB most #eo#le )or+ed in ind%stry, and the tiny in"ormation and service sector )as beginning to gro). !oday, the #ict%re has reversed' <9 #ercent o" em#loyed Americans )or+ in in"ormation or service -obs, only E; #ercent )or+ in ind%strial #rod%ction, and F #ercent in agric%lt%re. !his tiny "raction "eeds the other 96 #ercent o" Americans, ex#orts h%gely to other co%ntries, and receives s%bsidies and #rice s%##ort #ayments to sto# them "rom gro)ing even more "ood. 8an%"act%ring, even )itho%t nanotechnology, seems to be heading to)ard a similar condition. 0ith an ever&declining #ercentage o" o%r #o#%lation )or+ing in man%"act%ring, )e have as everyday #rod%cts things that )ere once available only to +ings and the high nobility. >et o)ning m%lti#le s%its o" clothes, having #ersonal #ortraits o" o%rselves and "amily members, having m%sic %#on o%r command, having a #ersonal bedroom, and having a coach a)aiting o%r needIthese are no) regarded as being among the bare necessities o" li"e. 5t may be #ossible to ad-%st to even greater )ealth )ith even less re$%ired labor, b%t the ad-%stment )ill s%rely ca%se #roblems. 5n a )orld in )hich nanotechnology red%ces the need "or )or+ers in agric%lt%re and man%"act%ring still "%rther, the $%estion )ill be as+ed, 90hat -obs are le"t "or #eo#le to do once "ood, clothing, and shelter are very inex#ensive*9 Again, the t)entieth cent%ry #rovides some g%idelines. As technology has red%ced costs by e""iciently #rod%cing many %nits o" an identical item, #eo#le have beg%n to demand c%stomi.ation to meet individ%al needs or #re"erences. As a res%lt, there are ever more -obs in #rod%cing c%stom goods. !oday, semi&c%stom goods that try to hel# %s meet o%r needs or ex#ress o%r taste abo%nd'

designer linens, ready&to&)ear "ashions, cosmetics, cars, tr%c+s, recreational vehicles, "%rnit%re, car#eting, shoes, televisions, toys, s#orts e$%i#ment, )ashing machines, micro)ave ovens, "ood #rocessors, bread ba+ers, #asta ma+ers, home com#%ters, tele#hones, ans)ering machinesIare all available in large and ever&changing variety. H%st as varied is the "ab%lo%s )ealth and diversity o" in"ormation #rod%ced in the t)entieth cent%ry. 5n"ormation #rod%cts are a large "actor in the economy' Americans b%y E.7 billion boo+s, < billion maga.ines, and EC billion ne)s#a#ers each year. 5n recent years, ne) maga.ines have been invented and la%nched at the rate o" one every b%siness day o" the year. A visit to a )ell&stoc+ed maga.ine rac+ sho)s only a hint o" the )ealth o" highly s#eciali.ed #%blications, each one "oc%sed on a s#eciali.ed interest or attit%de' hotdog s+iing, lo)&"at go%rmet coo+ing, travel in Ari.ona, a maga.ine "or #eo#le )ith a home o""ice and a com#%ter, and "inely t%ned maga.ines on health, leis%re, #sychology, science, #olitics, movie stars and roc+ stars, m%sic, h%nting, "ishing, games, art, "ashion, bea%ty, anti$%es, com#%ters, cars, g%ns, )restling. 8otion #ict%res, )hich started as a "loc+ o" inde#endent #rod%ction com#anies and then consolidated into the great st%dios o" the 19FCs, have since "ollo)ed the decentrali.ation and diversi"ication trends o" recent years. o) an ex#anding range o" "ilm entertainment comes via net)or+ !J, cable channels, #rivate net)or+s, videota#es, m%sic videos. 5nde#endent #rod%cers are aided by the technology innovations o" cable, direct broadcast satellites, videota#e technology, laser dis+s, videocameras. !he arts have b%rgeoned, )ith the general #%blic as the ne) #atron o" the arts. Any artist or art "orm that co%ld "ind and satis"y a mar+et boomed in the t)entieth cent%ry. ot -%st the traditional arts o" actors, )riters, m%sicians, and #ainters, b%t all "orms o" 9domestic9 artistry have gro)n to %n#recedented levels' landsca#e and interior design, "ashion design, cosmetics, hairstyling, architect%re, bridal cons%lting. Providing "or these demands are some o" the 9service and in"ormation9 -obs created in the late t)entieth cent%ry. 9/ervice9 -obs incl%de many )ays o" hel#ing other #eo#le' "rom n%rsing to com#%ter re#airs to sales. 5n 9in"ormation9 -obs, #ro-ected to have the "astest #ercentage gro)th over the next decade, #eo#le "ind, eval%ate, analy.e, and create in"ormation. A maga.ine col%mnist or !J ne)s #rod%cer obvio%sly has an 9in"ormation9 -ob. (%t so do #rogrammers, #aralegals, la)yers, acco%ntants, "inancial analysts, credit co%nselors, #sychologists, librarians, managers, engineers, biologists, travel agents, and teachers. 95ncreasingly,9 states Forbes maga.ine, 9#eo#le are no longer laborersB they are ed%cated #ro"essionals )ho carry their most im#ortant )or+ tools in their heads. Dismissing them "rom their -obs, c%tting them o"" "rom their #laces o" em#loyment may h%rt them emotionally and "inancially. (%t it doesn,t se#arate them "rom their vocation in the same )ay that #%shing a "armer o"" his "reshly seeded land does. =or cent%ries )or+ers )ere more de#endent on a #artic%lar #hysical setting than they are no). 8odern occ%#ations generally give their #ractitioners more inde#endenceIand greater mobilityIthan did those o" yesteryear.9 !hese h%man s+ills that #eo#le carry )ith them )ill contin%e to be val%ed' managing com#lexity, #roviding creativity, c%stomi.ing things "or other #eo#le, hel#ing #eo#le deal )ith #roblems, #roviding old services in ne) contexts, teaching, entertaining, and ma+ing decisions. A reasonable g%ess )o%ld be that many o" the service and in"ormation ind%stries o" the t)entieth cent%ry )ill contin%e to evolve and exist in a )orld )ith nanotechnology. 0hat is harder to imagine )o%ld be )hat ne) ind%stries )ill come into being once )e have ne) ca#abilities and lo)er costs. Along )ith the old economic la) o" s%##ly and demand is another governing "actor' #rice elasticity e""ects. Peo#le,s desire "or something is 9elastic9' it ex#ands or contracts )hen the cost o" something val%able goes do)n or %#. 5" the #rice o" a "light to E%ro#e is "ive h%ndred dollars, more #eo#le )ill ta+e a E%ro#ean vacation than i" the #rice is "ive tho%sand dollars. 0hen yo% had to hire a highly trained mathematician to do e$%ations, calc%lation )as slo) and ex#ensive. Peo#le didn,t do m%ch o" it %nless they absol%tely had to. !oday, com#%ters ma+e calc%lation chea# and a%tomatic. /o

no) b%sinesses do so#histicated "inancial modeling, chemists design #rotein molec%les, st%dents calc%late orbital tra-ectories "or s#aceshi#s, children #lay video games, moviema+ers do ever more ama.ing s#ecial e""ects, and the cartoonIvirt%ally extinct beca%se o" high labor costsIhas ret%rned to movie theaters, all beca%se com#%ters #ermit chea# calc%lation. anotechnology )ill o""er ne), a""ordable ca#abilities to these and other #eo#le. !oday, it,s as hard to #redict )hat ne) ind%stries )ill be invented as it )o%ld have been "or the creators o" the E 5AC com#%ter to have #redicted chea#, handheld game com#%ters "or children. /o rather than #rod%cing drastic %nem#loyment, nanotechnology seems li+ely to contin%e the trend already seen today, a)ay "rom -obs that can be a%tomated and into -obs )here the h%man #ers#ective is vital. (%t the tr%e #ossibilities are, as al)ays in the modern )orld, beyond #redicting. Change Disru#ts Plans 8a-or shi"ts in demogra#hics al)ays ca%se disr%#tions. Even )hen )e +no) they are coming, )e never #re#are "or them. @%r #lans are based on ex#ectations o" )hat )ill ha##en. 5" things don,t go as ex#ected, )e "ind that )e have 9malinvested.9 4o%ston real estate )as val%able and loo+ed to become even more so )hen times )ere good "or the oil b%siness thereB )hen the "ort%nes o" the oil b%siness changed, 4o%ston real estate )as "o%nd to have been overb%ilt, over#riced, and many millions o" dollars )ere lost. Dengthening li"e s#ans #%sh #eo#le to)ard ta+ing a longer&term #ers#ective, b%t ra#id rates o" change "orce a shorter&term #ers#ective in investments. !%rb%lence in technology and in governmental monetary #olicy have already shortened time hori.ons. (%siness#eo#le once ro%tinely b%ilt #lants )ith a thirty&year %se"%l li"e. !oday, the rate o" change is too "ast, and %ncertainty regarding in"lation and #otential changes in tax la)s is too great "or s%ch investments to ma+e sense. =aster change )ill shrin+ time hori.ons "%rther. Governments have ta+en on themselves the b%rden o" loo+ing a li"etime ahead, and the /ocial /ec%rity Administration is in "or some ro%gh times. 0hen @tto von (ismarc+, Germany,s 5ron Chancellor, came %# )ith the notion o" a g%aranteed old age #ension, it )as a cynically clever and lo)&cost )ay to gain #o#%lar good)ill. /o "e) #eo#le lived to age sixty&"ive that the amo%nts #aid o%t in #ensions )ere a #ittance. A"ter )atching the German ex#eriment "or a hand"%l o" years, other governments began "ollo)ing s%it. one o" them ex#ected a )orld li+e o%rs )here a baby girl born in the ?nited /tates today has an average li"e ex#ectancy o" 6;.G yearsIdo%ble that o" (ismarc+,s time Iand even this estimate is based on the "a%lty ass%m#tion that her medical care )ill be no better than her great&grandmother,s )as. At #resent, the /ocial /ec%rity Administration has t)o models' one they call 9#ositive9 and one they call 9negative.9 5n the 9#ositive9 model, #eo#le )or+ li+e dogs %ntil old age, retire, and #rom#tly dieI#res%mably be"ore they,ve had a chance to collect s%bstantial social sec%rity or medical bene"its. 5n the 9negative9 model, #eo#le retire early, develo# illnesses that re$%ire medical intervention, and then live a long time ma+ing doctor visits and hos#ital stays d%ring those years. Plans based on these models deserve to be disr%#ted. A better, more realistic scenario )o%ld have #eo#le living and able to s%##ort themselves "or a long time, )ith illnesses that can be handled easily and inex#ensively. Present social sec%rity bene"its are eno%gh to #rovide a certain standard o" livingI"ood, ho%sing, trans#ortation, and so "orth. 5n a "%t%re o" great material )ealth, these bene"its )ill be easy to #rovide, and #resent #ro-ections o" economic )oe res%lting "rom an aging #o#%lation )ill seem $%aint.

Co#ing with Change (ac+ in the seventies, a%thor Alvin !o""ler bro%ght o%t a boo+ called Future Shoc#, describing ho) dist%rbing ra#id change is "or #eo#le. !he boo+ )as a best&seller, b%t ho) m%ch act%al "%t%re shoc+ has been seen in the #ast decade* 8ost #eo#le seem to have come thro%gh the last t)o decades #retty m%ch all right, not in a state o" shoc+ at all. Aather than being shoc+ed by technology, they are instead annoyed abo%t #oll%tion and tra""ic. Does this mean !o""ler )as )rong in #redicting "%t%re shoc+* 5t,s tr%e that technology has been advancing ra#idly in many areas over the #ast t)enty years. (%t consider the average #erson,s home li"e' 4o) m%ch o" this ra#id technological advance has sho)n %# there* A great deal, yet most o" it is hidden, %nli+e the earlier #art o" the cent%ry, )here obvio%s change )as the norm. Electric lights and a##liances, a%tomobiles, tele#hones, air#lanes, radio, and television a""ected almost everyone,s #rivate li"e. @ne #erson,s li"e co%ld s#an the time "rom horse&and&b%ggy travel to )atching the 8oon landings on television. 5n contrast, the #ast t)enty years have seen ne) technologies move more $%ietly into the home. !he JCA and micro)ave oven don,t seem nearly as revol%tionary as earlier inventions. !ele#hone ans)ering machines are %se"%l b%t haven,t ca%sed ma-or changes in li"estyles. =ax machines are handy, b%t they,re m%ch li+e having very "ast mail, and as this is )ritten, "ax machines aren,t yet in most homes. /o it,s not s%r#rising that the average #erson has "elt little "%t%re shoc+ lately. e) medicines ta+en as #illsI)hich may be radically im#rovedIloo+ -%st li+e the earlier #ills. !he com#%teri.ed bills that come in the mail aren,t any more exciting to #ay than the old h%man&#re#ared bills. !his sit%ation is %nli+ely to last. 4o) m%ch longer can technology advance so ra#idly in so many "ields )itho%t ma-or e""ects on o%r li"estyles* !here,s been a res#ite "rom "%t%re shoc+ in the last three decadesB #eo#le have had a chance to catch their breath. 0hen nanotechnology arrives, )ill "%t%re shoc+ arrive )ith it* /ome segments o" society today are already getting #ractice in dealing )ith ra#id technological advance. !hose getting the most vigoro%s )or+o%t are in the com#%ter "ield, )here a machine t)o years old is regarded as obsolete, and so"t)are m%st be %#dated every "e) months to +ee# abreast o" the ne) develo#ments. (%t has this terri"ic rate o" #rogress been di..ying or over)helming* ot "or the cons%merIon the contrary, com#%ters have become easier to %se. 5n the 19<Cs, the e) 8ath that )as introd%ced into American grade schools and -%nior high schools incl%ded extensive st%dy o" arithmetic %sing n%mbers )ritten in something other than the "amiliar base 1C. !his )as to #re#are the 9Ad%lts o" !omorro)9 "or 9!he Com#%ter Age9 in )hich )e )o%ld all be )riting assembly lang%age com#%ter #rograms in binary 2base E3 code. (%t c%stomers no) #%rchase so"t)are rather than )rite it themselvesIthey need never deal )ith com#%ter lang%ages at all, m%ch less a #rimitive assembly lang%age. !he ra#id increase o" com#%ter s#eed has hel#ed ma+e com#%ters easier to %se. !his #rogression has occ%rred many times be"ore' Cars started o"" )ith external hand cran+s, then advanced to starters yo% co%ld yan+ "rom the com"ort o" the driver,s seatB no) starters #er"orm invisibly )hen yo% t%rn the +ey in the ignition. !his #attern )ill s%rely contin%e. =irst, some #eo#le )ill ada#t to the technology, b%t in the long r%n the technology )ill ada#t to %s. !he more "lexible and #o)er"%l the technology, the more easily it )ill ada#t. /een "rom a distance, seemingly trivial #atterns o" ada#tation "orm #art o" a larger #rocess that has mar+ed the last cent%ry' !he 0estern )orld has beg%n to invent mechanisms to handle a )orld o" #ersistent change. @%r mechanisms are by no means #er"ect or #ainless, as any %nem#loyed #erson can testi"y. Em#loyment agencies and headh%nters "or -ob see+ersB %nem#loyment and severance #ac+ages to ease -ob transitionsB on&the&-ob training, contin%ing ed%cation, retraining, s#eciali.ed seminars to %#date #ro"essional s+ills, #ro"essional associations, net)or+ing, comm%nity reso%rces centers, government training #rograms, and vol%nteer agencies are -%st a "e) o" the inventions

dealing )ith change and transition. Cons%mer in"ormation services, reg%latory agencies, and environmental organi.ations are others. !he most e""ective )ill end%re. 8ore o#tions )ill contin%e to be invented.

Cha#ter ,3 .a*ety, (ccidents, and (buse /ome tr%isms' Almost any technology is s%b-ect to %se, mis%se, ab%se, and accidents. !he more #o)er"%l a technology is )hen #ro#erly %sed, the )orse it is li+ely to be )hen ab%sed. Any #o)er"%l technology in h%man hands can be the s%b-ect o" accidents. anotechnology and molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill be no exce#tion. 5ndeed, i" molec%lar man%"act%ring re#laces modern ind%stry, and i" its nanotechnological #rod%cts re#lace most modern technologies, then most "%t%re accidents )ill have to involve nanotechnology. Another tr%ism' 5n a diverse, com#etitive )orld, any reasonably&inex#ensive technology )ith enormo%s commercial, medical, and military a##lications )ill almost s%rely be develo#ed and %sed. 5t is hard to envision a scenario 2short o" the colla#se o" civili.ation3 in )hich nanotechnology )ill not ma+e its a##earanceB it seems inevitable. 5" so, then its #roblems, ho)ever to%gh, m%st be dealt )ith. Di+e tr%c+s, aircra"t, biotechnology, roc+ets, com#%ters, boots, and )arm clothes, nanotechnology has the #otential "or both #eace"%l and aggressive %ses. 5n #eace"%l %ses 2by de"inition3, harm to #eo#le occ%rs either by accident or as an %nintended conse$%ence. 5n aggressive %ses, harm is deliberate. 5n a #eace"%l context, the #ro#er $%estion to as+ is Can fallible eo le of goodwill, ursuing normal human ur oses, use nanotechnology in a way that reduces ris# and harm to others$ 5n an aggressive, military context, the #ro#er $%estion to as+ is Can we somehow #ee the eace$ @%r ans)er to the "irst )ill be a clear yes, and to the second, an a##rehensive maybe. !hro%gho%t this disc%ssion, )e ass%me that most #eo#le )ill be alert in matters concerning their #ersonal sa"ety, and that some )ill be alert in matters concerning )orld sa"ety. D%ring the 196Cs, #eo#le a)a+ening to the ne) large&scale, long&term #roblems o" technology o"ten "elt isolated and #o)erless. !hey nat%rally "elt that technology )as o%t o" their control, in the hands o" shortsighted and irres#onsible gro%#s. !oday, there are still battles to be "o%ght, b%t the tide has t%rned. 0hen a concern arises regarding a ne), obvio%s technology, it is no) m%ch easier to get a hearing in the media, in the co%rts, and in the #olitical arena. 5m#roving these mechanisms "or social vigilance and the #olitical control o" technology is an im#ortant challenge. C%rrent mechanisms are im#er"ect, b%t they can still give a big #%sh in the right directions. !ho%gh )e ass%me alertness, alertness can be a scarce reso%rce. !he total amo%nt o" concern and energy available "or "oc%sing on long&term #roblems is so limited that it m%st be %sed care"%lly, not s$%andered on #roblems that are trivial or ill%sory. Part o" o%r aim in this cha#ter is to hel# sort o%t the iss%es raised by nanotechnology so that attention can be "oc%sed on #roblems that m%st be solved, b%t might not be. !he next "e) sections deal )ith accidents o" conventional sorts, )here sa"ety bene"its are obvio%s. Dater sections disc%ss more novel #roblems, some to%gh eno%gh that )e have no good ans)ers. 0afety in $rdinary Acti.ities As co%ntries have gro)n richer, their #eo#le have lived longer des#ite #oll%tion and a%tomobile accidents. Greater )ealth means sa"er roads, sa"er cars, sa"er homes, and sa"er )or+#laces. !hro%gho%t history, ne) technologies have bro%ght ne) ris+s, incl%ding ris+s o" death, in-%ry, and harm to the environment, b%t #r%dent #eo#le have only acce#ted ne) technologies )hen they o""ered an im#roved mix o" ris+s and bene"its. Des#ite occasional dramatic mista+es, the historical record says that #eo#le have s%cceeded in choosing technologies that red%ce their #ersonal ris+s. !his m%st be so, or )e )o%ldn,t be living longer. 8olec%lar man%"act%ring and its #rod%cts sho%ld contin%e this trend, not as an a%tomatic conse$%ence, b%t as a res%lt o" contin%ed vigilance, o" #eo#le exercising care in #ic+ing and choosing )hich technologies they allo) into their daily lives. anotechnology )ill give better control o"

#rod%ction and #rod%cts, and better control %s%ally means greater sa"ety. anotechnology )ill increase )ealth, and sa"ety is a "orm o" )ealth that #eo#le val%e. P%blic debate, #rod%ct testing, and sa"ety reg%lations are standard #arts o" this #rocess. :o e .a*ety 5n common home accidents, a dangero%s #rod%ct is )rongly a##lied, s#illed, or cons%med. 4omes today are "%ll o" corrosive and toxic materials, "or cleaning drains, dissolving stains, #oisoning insects, and so "orth. All too o"ten, children drin+ them and die. 0ith advanced technology, none o" these tas+s )ill re$%ire s%ch harsh, cr%de chemicals. Cleaning co%ld be #er"ormed by selective nanomachines instead o" corrosive chemicalsB insects co%ld be controlled by devices li+e ecosystem #rotectors that +no) the di""erence bet)een a coc+roach and a #erson or a ladyb%g. !here )ill do%btless be room "or deadly accidents, b%t )ith care and hard )or+, it sho%ld be #ossible to ens%re that nanotechnologies "or the home are sa"er than )hat they re#lace, saving many lives. 5t is, o" co%rse, #ossible to imagine sa"ety nightmares' nanotechnology co%ld be %sed to ma+e #rod%cts "ar more destr%ctive than anything )e,ve seen beca%se it co%ld be %sed to extend almost any ability "%rther than )e,ve seen. /%ch #rod%cts #res%mably )on,t be common#lace' even today, nerve gas )o%ld ma+e a #otent #esticide, b%t it isn,t sold "or home %se. !hin+ing realistically abo%t ha.ards re$%ires common sense. $ndustrial .a*ety 0e,ve already seen ho) #ost&brea+thro%gh technologies can eliminate oil s#ills by eliminating oil cons%m#tion. A similar story co%ld be told o" almost any class o" ind%strial accident today. (%t )hat abo%t accidentsIs#ills and the li+eI)ith the ne) technologies* Aather than trying to #aint a #ict%re o" a "%t%re technology, o" ho) it co%ld "ail and )hat the res#onses co%ld be, it seems better to try a tho%ght ex#eriment. 0hat co%ld be done to deal )ith oil s#ills, i" oil )ere still in %se* !his )ill sho) ho) nanotechnologies can be %sed to co#e )ith accidents' 5" there )ere a s#ill and oil on the shore, advanced nanomechanisms co%ld do an excellent -ob o" se#arating oil "rom sand, removing oil "rom roc+s, and cleaning cr%de oil "rom "eathers on birds and the "eathery legs o" barnacles. @il contamination is a #oll%tion #roblem, and nanotechnology )ill be a great aid in cleaning %# #oll%tion. (%t )hy sho%ld the oil reach the shore* Economical #rod%ction )o%ld ma+e it easy to stoc+#ile clean%# e$%i#ment near all the ma-or shi##ing ro%tes, along )ith "leets o" helico#ters to deliver it at the "irst distress call "rom a tan+er. @il clean%# e$%i#ment b%ilt )ith nanotechnology co%ld s%rely do an excellent -ob o" scoo#ing oil "rom the )ater be"ore it co%ld reach the shore. (%t )hy sho%ld the oil leave the tan+er* Economical #rod%ction o" strong materials co%ld ma+e seamless h%lls o" "ibro%s materials "ar to%gher than steel, )ith do%ble, tri#le, or $%adr%#le layers. /mart materials co%ld even ma+e #%nct%res sel"&sealing. 4%lls li+e this co%ld be r%n into roc+s at high)ay s#eeds )itho%t s#illing oil. (%t )hy sho%ld anyone be shi##ing cr%de oil across the sea* Even i" oil )ere still being #%m#ed 2des#ite inex#ensive solar energy and solar&derived "%els3, e""icient molec%le #rocessing systems co%ld re"ine it into #%re, "l%id "%els at the )ellhead, and inex#ensive t%nneling machines co%ld #rovide ro%tes "or dee#ly b%ried #i#elines. Any one o" these advances )o%ld shrin+ or eliminate today,s #roblem )ith oil s#ills, and all o" them are "easible. !his exam#le s%ggests a general #attern. 5" nanotechnology can #rovide so many di""erent )ays to avoid or deal )ith an oil s#illIone o" the largest and most environmentally destr%ctive accidents ca%sed by today,s ind%stryIit can #robably do li+e)ise "or ind%strial accidents in general. !he most direct a##roach is the most basic' the elimination o" anything resembling today,s b%l+

ind%strial #lants and #rocesses. !he shi"t "rom messy drilling activities and h%ge tan+ers to small&scale distrib%ted systems based on solar cells is characteristic o" the style in )hich nanotechnology can be %sed. !he chemical ind%stry today ty#ically relies on #lants "%ll o" large, #ress%ri.ed tan+s o" chemicals. ot s%r#risingly, these occasionally s#ill, ex#lode, or b%rn. 0ith nanotechnology, chemical #lants )ill be %nnecessary beca%se molec%les can be trans"ormed in smaller n%mbers, as needed and )here needed, )ith no need "or high tem#erat%res, high #ress%res, or big tan+s. !his )ill not only avoid #oll%ting by&#rod%cts, b%t red%ce the ris+ o" accidents. "edical sa*ety 8edicine can be sa"er too. Dr%gs o"ten have side e""ects that can do #ermanent damage or +ill. anomedicine )ill o""er alternatives to "looding the body )ith a #ossibly toxic chemical. @"ten, one )ants to a""ect -%st one target' -%st the stomach, or #erha#s -%st the %lcer. An antibiotic or antiviral treatment sho%ld "ight s#eci"ic bacteria or vir%ses and not damage anything else. 0hen medicine achieves the so#histication o" imm%ne machines and cell&s%rgery devices, this )ill become #ossible. (%t )hat abo%t medical accidents and side e""ects* 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e #ossible s%#erior sensors to tell medical researchers o" the e""ects o" a ne) treatment, thereby im#roving testing. (etter sensors )ill also hel# in monitoring any negative e""ects o" a treatment on an individ%al #atient. 0ith care, only a "e) cells )o%ld be damaged and only small concentrations o" toxic by& #rod%cts )o%ld be #rod%ced be"ore this )as noticed and the treatment corrected. !he reso%rces o" nanotechnology&based medicine )o%ld then be available "or dealing )ith the #roblem. 0ith biostasis techni$%es available, even the )orst medically ind%ced illnesses co%ld be #%t on hold )hile a treatment )as develo#ed. 5n short, serio%s medical mista+es co%ld be made "ar rarer, and most mista+es co%ld be corrected. !he concl%sion that "ollo)s "rom these exam#les o" oil s#ills, chemical #lants, and the e""ects o" medical treatments is straight"or)ard. !oday o%r com#arative #overty and o%r com#arative technological incom#etence #ress %s in the direction o" b%ilding and %sing relatively dangero%s and destr%ctive devices, systems, and techni$%es. 0ith greater )ealth and technological com#etence, )e )ill have the o#tion o" accom#lishing )hat )e do today 2and more3 )ith less ris+ and less environmental destr%ction' in short, being able to do more, and do it better. 0ith better&controlled technologies, and )ith an am#le meas%re o" "oresight and concern, )e )ill even be able to do a better -ob o" recovering "rom mista+es. 5t )on,t ha##en a%tomatically, b%t )ith normal care )e can arrange "or o%r "%t%re accidents to be smaller and less "re$%ent than those in o%r #ast. Extraordinary Accidents !he #revio%s section disc%ssed ordinary accidents that )o%ld occ%r d%ring the %se o" nanotechnology by generally res#onsible, yet "allible, h%man beings. anotechnology also raises the s#ecter, ho)ever, o" )hat have been termed 9extraordinary accidents9' accidents involving r%na)ay sel"&re#licating machines. @ne can imagine b%ilding a device abo%t the si.e o" a bacteri%m b%t to%gher and more nearly omnivoro%s. /%ch r%na)ays might blo) li+e #ollen and re#rod%ce li+e bacteria, eating any o" a )ide range o" organic materials' an ecological disaster o" %n#recedented magnit%deI indeed, one that co%ld destroy the bios#here as )e +no) it. !his may be )orth )orrying abo%t, b%t can this ha##en by accident* :ow to Pre#are a 2ig "ista'e !he so&called 9/tar !re+ scenario9 2named a"ter an e#isode o" Star )re#& )he >ext :eneration that "eat%red r%na)ay 9nanites93 is #erha#s the most commonly imagined #roblem. 5n this scenario, someone "irst invests considerable engineering e""ort in designing and b%ilding devices almost exactly li+e the one -%st described' bacterial&si.ed, omnivoro%s, able to s%rvive in a )ide range o" nat%ral environments, able to b%ild co#ies o" themselves, and made )ith -%st a "e) b%ilt&in sa"eg%ardsI

#erha#s a cloc+ that sh%ts them o"" a"ter a time, #erha#s something else. !hen, accidentally, the cloc+ "ails, or one o" these dangero%s re#licators b%ilds a co#y )ith a de"ective cloc+, and a)ay )e go )ith an %n#recedented ecological disaster. !his )o%ld be an extraordinary accident indeed. ote )ell, tho%gh, that this accident scenario starts )ith someone b%ilding a highly ca#able device that is almost disastro%sly dangero%s, b%t held in chec+ by a "e) sa"eg%ards. !his )o%ld be li+e )iring yo%r ho%se )ith dynamite and relying on a sa"ety&catch to #rotect the trigger' a s%bse$%ent ex#losion co%ld be called an accident, b%t the #roblem isn,t )ith the sa"ety mechanism, it,s )ith the dynamite installation. Do )e need to b%ild nanotechnological dynamite* 5t,s )orth considering -%st ho) little #ractical incentive there is "or anything even resembling the dangero%s re#licator -%st described. 2 ote that o%r to#ic here is accidentsB deliberate acts o" aggression are another matter.3 :ow to (void $t 0ith o%r #resent technology, )hich is sim#ler to b%ildIa car that r%ns on gasoline, or one that "orages "or "%els in the "orest* A "oraging car )o%ld be very hard to design, cost more to man%"act%re, and have more #arts to brea+ do)n. !he sit%ation is similar )ith nanotechnology. Aal#h 8er+le o" Serox Palo Alto Aesearch Center disc%ssed this iss%e at the =irst =oresight Con"erence on anotechnology. 4e ex#lains, 95t,s both %neconomical and more di""ic%lt to design a sel"&re#licating system that man%"act%res every #art it needs "rom nat%rally occ%rring com#o%nds. (acteria do this, b%t in the #rocess they have to synthesi.e all t)enty amino acids and many other com#o%nds, %sing elaborate en.yme systems tailored s#eci"ically "or the #%r#ose. =or bacteria "acing a hostile )orld, the ability to ada#t and res#ond to a changing environment is )orth almost any cost, "or lac+ing this ability they )o%ld be )i#ed o%t. 9(%t in a "actory setting, )here ade$%ate s%##lies o" all the needed #arts are #rovided, the ability to synthesi.e #arts "rom scratch is not only %nneeded, it cons%mes extra time and energy, and #rod%ces excess )aste. Even i" )e co%ld design arti"icial sel"&re#licating systems as "lexible as existing nat%ral ones, an in"lexible and rigid system is better ada#ted to the controlled "actory setting in )hich it )ill "ind itsel" than a more com#lex, more ada#table, less e""icient design.9 0hat is more, the Desert Aose 5nd%stries scenario sho)ed ho) an ex#andable "actory set%# co%ld o#erate )ith no sel"&re#licating machines at all' molec%lar man%"act%ring doesn,t re$%ire them. 5" they are %sed "or some #%r#ose, they )ill most li+ely resemble a%tomobiles in their "inic+y re$%irements. A sel"&re#licating molec%lar machine b%ilt "or ind%strial #%r#oses 2and made as sim#le as #ossible3 )o%ld "loat in a container o" s#ecially selected chemicals. As )ith the a%tomobile, the best chemicals to %se )ill #robably be chemicals not commonly "o%nd in nat%re, and it )o%ld be easy to ma+e that a design r%le' >ever ma#e a re licator that can use an abundant natural com ound as fuel. 5" )e "ollo) this r%le, the idea o" a re#licator 9esca#ing9 and re#licating in the )ild )ill be as abs%rd as the notion o" an a%tomobile going "eral and re"%eling itsel" "rom tree sa#. 0hether "or re#licators or cars, to design a machine that co%ld o#erate in the )ild )o%ld not be a matter o" a "lic+ o" the dra"tsman,s #en, b%t an intense, s%stained research&and&develo#ment e""ort "oc%sed on that ob-ective. Crashes and ex#losions occ%r in machinery by accident, b%t com#lex ne) ca#abilities don,t. A sim#le #sychological error "re$%ently occ%rs )hen someone "irst hears abo%t nanotechnology, and hears mention o" 9molec%lar machines,9 and 9re#licators,9 and 9nanocom#%ters,9 and 9nanomachines that o#erate in nat%re.9 !he error is this' !he #erson ma+es a single ne) mental #igeonhole "or 9nanotechnology,9 thro)s everything into it, and stirs. A"ter some mental "ermentation, the res%lt is the mythical nanomachine that does everything' it,s a re#licator, it,s a s%#ercom#%ter, it,s a Dand&Aover, it slices, it dicesIand on re"lection, this imaginary nanomachine so%nds %ncontrolled and dangero%s. 0ith eno%gh e""ort, a do&it&all nanomachine co%ld #erha#s be b%ilt, b%t it so%nds di""ic%lt and there,s no good reason to try.

!here are advantages to ma+ing systems o" molec%lar machinery that can %se inex#ensive, ab%ndant chemicals, and devices that can o#erate in nat%re, b%t these machines needn,t be re#licators. A "acility li+e Desert Aose might be designed to %se little b%t electric #o)er "rom solar #anels and molec%les "rom the air, b%t a set%# li+e this isn,t going to sli# a)ay. anomachines b%ilt "or cleaning %# #oll%tants and other o%tdoor tas+s co%ld be man%"act%red in "acilities r%n li+e Desert Aose and then s#read or installed )here they,re needed. Extraordinary accidents deserve attention, b%t )ith a little care they can be com#letely avoided. !he incentive to b%ild anything resembling a /tar !re+&scenario re#licator is negligible, even "rom a military #ers#ective. Any e""ort to)ard b%ilding s%ch a thing sho%ld be seen not as a %se o" nanotechnology, b%t as an ab%se. @ther ab%ses seem more li+ely, ho)ever, and are $%ite bad eno%gh. The +hief 2anger1 Abuse !he chie" danger o" nanotechnology isn,t accidents, b%t ab%se. !he sa"ety bene"its o" nanotechnology, )hen %sed )ith normal care, )ill "ree some o" o%r attention to gra##le )ith this "ar more di""ic%lt #roblem. As Dester 8ilbrath observes, 9 anotechnologies have s%ch great #o)er that they co%ld be %sed "or evil or environmentally destr%ctive #%r#oses as easily as they co%ld be %sed "or good and environmentally no%rishing #%r#oses. !his great danger )ill re$%ire a level o" #olitical control "ar beyond that )hich most nations +no) ho) to exercise. 0e have a #rodigio%s social learning tas+ that )e m%st "ace.9 !h%s "ar, )e,ve "oc%sed on ho) increased abilities can serve constr%ctive ends. ot s%r#risingly, the #otential conse$%encesI)ith the h%ge exce#tion o" social and economic disr%#tionIare over)helmingly #ositive. 5nherently clean, )ell&controlled, inex#ensive, s%#erior technologies, )hen a##lied )ith care, can yield "ar better res%lts than inherently dirty, messy, costly, in"erior technologies. !his sho%ld come as no s%r#rise, b%t it is only hal" o" the story. !he other hal" is the a##lication o" those same s%#erior technologies to destr%ctive ends. Aeaders "eeling that all this may be too good to be tr%e can breathe a sigh o" relie". !his #roblem loo+s to%gh. Coo#erative Controls 8olec%lar man%"act%ring )ill lead to more #o)er"%l technologies, b%t o%r c%rrent, cr%de technology already has )orld&smashing #otential. 0e have lived )ith that #otential "or decades no). 5n the coming years, )e )ill need to strengthen instit%tions "or maintaining #eace"%l sec%rity. 5" most o" the #olitical #o)er in the )orld, and )ith it most o" the #olice and military #o)er, sees that the co%rse o" sel" interest lies in #eace and stability, then sol%tions seem #ossible. 2!he #ros#ect o" an arms race in nanotechnology is terri"ying and to be avoided at almost any cost. As o" this )riting, the end o" the Cold 0ar o""ers a better ho#e o" avoiding this nightmare.3 Hames C. (ennett, a high& tech entre#rene%r and #%blic #olicy commentator a""iliated )ith the Center "or Constit%tional 5ss%es in !echnology, ex#lains the goal' 9Advanced technologies, #artic%larly as "ar&ranging a ca#ability as nanotechnology, )ill create a strong demand "or their reg%lation. !he challenge )ill be to create s%""icient controls to #revent the #o)er&h%ngry "rom ab%sing the technologies, )itho%t either smothering develo#ment or creating an overbearing international regime.9 5n the coming decades, #reventing ma-or ab%se o" nanotechnology )ill ta+e the "orm o" reg%lation, arms control, and antiterrorist activities. 5n the "ield o" arms control, nanotechnology sho%ld #resent strong motivation "or international coo#eration and "or intimate m%t%al ins#ection in the "orm o" -oint research #rograms. !he sheer #rod%ctive ca#abilities o" molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e it #ossible to move "rom a )or+ing )ea#ons #rototy#e to mass #rod%ction in a matter o" days. 5n a more exotic vein, dangero%s nanomachines co%ld be develo#ed, incl%ding #rogrammable 9germs9 2re#licating or nonre#licating3 "or

germ )ar"are. Either develo#ment co%ld bring )ar. 0ith #eace loo+ing so #ro"itable and an arms race loo+ing so dangero%s, arms control thro%gh coo#erative develo#ment sho%ld loo+ attractive. !his does not ma+e it easy, or li+ely. !errorism is not an immediate concern. 0e have lived )ith n%clear )ea#ons and nerve gas "or decades no), and nerve gas, at least, is not di""ic%lt to ma+e. As o" this )riting, no city has been obliterated by terrorists %sing these means, and no terrorist has even made a credible threat o" this sort. !he citi.ens o" 4iroshima and agasa+i, li+e the K%rds in 5ra$, "ell victim to n%clear and chemical )ea#ons )ielded by governments, not small gro%#s. /o long as nanotechnology is technologically more challenging than the sim#le chemistry o" nerve gas, nanoterrorism sho%ld not be a #rimary concern. !o +ee# dangero%s nanotechnologies %navailable, ho)ever, )ill re$%ire reg%lation. 5" anyone )ere "ree to b%ild anything %sing molec%lar man%"act%ring, then someday as the technology base im#roves and designs become available "or more and more nanodevices, someone, some)hereIi" only o%t o" sheer s#iteI)o%ld "ig%re o%t ho) to combine those nanodevices to ma+e a dangero%s re#licator and t%rn it loose. !here )ill almost s%rely be )arning signs, ho)ever' 5n the nat%ral co%rse o" events, ca%ses attract #rotesters be"ore stone&thro)ers, and #rod%ce letter bombs be"ore car bombs. Ab%se o" nanotechnology is li+ely to be visible long be"ore it is devastating, and this at least gives some time to try to res#ond. Regulatory +actics Ab%se o" this sort can be delayed, #erha#s "or a long time, by #ro#er reg%lation. !he goal here isn,t to ma+e reg%lations so tight that #eo#le )ill have to violate them to get anything done. !his )o%ld enco%rage holdo%ts, %ndergro%nd )or+, and disres#ect "or the la). 5nstead, the goal is to dra) bo%ndaries loosely eno%gh to ca%se little di""ic%lty "or legitimate )or+, )hile ma+ing dangero%s activities very di""ic%lt indeed. !his is a delicate balance to stri+e' those "ear"%l o" ris+ nat%rally try to a##ly cr%de and o##ressive reg%lations, and com#anies nat%rally try to loosen and avoid reg%lation entirely. onetheless, the #roblem m%st be solved, and this seems the best direction to ex#lore. 5n one a##roach, nanomachines co%ld be divided into t)o classes' ex erimental devices and a roved roducts. A##roved #rod%cts co%ld be made )idely available thro%gh s#ecial&#%r#ose molec%lar man%"act%ring systems. !h%s, once an ex#erimental device had #assed reg%latory ins#ection, it co%ld become inex#ensive and ab%ndant. 5n this )ay, #o#%lar demands "or a #rod%ct co%ld be satis"ied )itho%t anyone needing to brea+ sa"ety r%les. A##roved #rod%cts co%ld incl%de devices li+e 2b%t s%#erior to3 the "%ll range o" modern cons%mer #rod%cts, ranging "rom #ersonal s%#ercom#%ters )ith F&D color dis#lays, thro%gh smart constr%ction materials, to r%nning shoes )ith tr%ly ama.ing "eat%res. !he main cost o" s%ch goods might be the royalty to the designer. 5n Engines of Creation 2the "irst boo+ to examine this to#ic3, this strategy "or #rod%cing and distrib%ting a##roved #rod%cts is called a 9limited assembler system.9 ote that both a##roved #rod%cts and the limited assemblers that b%ild them )o%ld lac+ the ability to ma+e co#ies o" themselves, to sel"&re#licate. Aal#h 8er+le sees this ability as the one to +ee# an eye on' 9/el"&re#licating systems can and sho%ld be a##ro#riately reg%lated. !here seems no need, ho)ever, to have any more than normal concerns "or devices )hich cannot re#licate. 0hile )e might, as )ith any device, need la)s to ens%re their a##ro#riate %se, they #ose no extraordinary #roblems.9 =or most #rod%cts, normal medical, commercial, and environmental standards )o%ld a##lyB the reg%latory b%rea%cracies are already in #lace. !here are great advantages to #ermitting nearly "ree ex#erimentation in a ne) technology, allo)ing creative #eo#le to try ideas )itho%t see+ing #rior a##roval "rom a c%mbersome committee. /%r#risingly, this, too, seems com#atible )ith sa"ety. 5n the )orld o" nanotechnology, one c%bic micron is a large s#ace, )ith room eno%gh "or millions o" com#onents. =or many #%r#oses, a "e) c%bic microns )o%ld amo%nt to a large laboratory s#ace.

!o a device on a micron scale, a centimeter is an enormo%s distance. /%rro%nding a micron&scale device )ith a centimeter&thic+ )all )o%ld be li+e s%rro%nding a h%man being )ith a )all +ilometers thic+, and -%st as hard to #enetrate. =%rther, a micron&scale device can be incinerated in an instant by something as small as a s#ar+ o" static electricity. (ased on observations li+e these, Engines of Creation o%tlined the idea o" a sealed assembler lab, in )hich a researcher co%ld b%ild anything, even something deliberately designed to be dangero%s, and yet be %nable to get anything o%t o" the microsco#ic sealed laboratory exce#t "or in"ormation. 0ith a good comm%nications net)or+, a researcher or #rod%ct develo#er in !exas co%ld e$%ally easily #er"orm ex#eriments in a remote 8aine laboratory r%n )ith the sec%rity and secrecy o" a /)iss ban+. A lab )o%ld have a res#onsibility to its c%stomers to +ee# #ro#rietary )or+ con"idential, and a res#onsibility to reg%latory a%thorities to ens%re that nothing b%t in"ormation leaves the laboratory. Aesearchers co%ld then #er"orm any small&scale ex#eriments they )ish. @nly a##roved #rod%cts, o" co%rse, )o%ld be b%ilt o%tside the sealed laboratories. 0hile this may not be the best #attern o" reg%lation #ossible, it does sho) one )ay in )hich "reedom o" ex#erimentation co%ld be combined )ith strict reg%lation o" %se. (y #roviding a clear se#aration bet)een legitimate and illegitimate activity, it )o%ld hel# )ith the di""ic%lt #roblem o" identi"ying and #reventing research aimed at damaging ends. A sensible #olicy )ill have to balance the ris+ o" #rivate ab%se o" technology against the ris+ o" government ab%se o" technology and reg%lation. Do)&cost man%"act%ring can ma+e s%rveillance e$%i#ment less ex#ensive. 5ncreased s%rveillance can red%ce some ris+s in society, b%t the )atchers themselves o"ten aren,t very )ell )atched. Placing bo%nds on s%rveillance is a challenge "or today,s citi.ens as )ell as tomorro),s, and lessons learned in the #ast can be a##lied in the "%t%re. 5n the long r%n, it seems )ise to ass%me that someone, some)here, someho), )ill esca#e the bo%nds o" reg%lation and arms control and a##ly molec%lar&man%"act%ring ca#abilities to ma+ing novel )ea#ons. 5" by then )e have had several decades o" #eace"%l, res#onsible, creative develo#ment o" nanotechnology 2or #erha#s a "e) years o" hel# "rom smart machines3, then )e may have develo#ed both ecosystem #rotectors and so#histicated imm%ne machines "or medicine. !here is good reason to thin+ that distrib%ted technologies o" this sort co%ld be ada#ted and extended to deal )ith the #roblem o" #rotecting against novel nano)ea#onry. =ail%re to do so co%ld mean disaster. onetheless, b%ilding #rotective systems o" this sort )ill be by "ar the greatest challenge o" any )e have disc%ssed. !he chie" #%r#ose o" reg%latory tactics li+e those )e have described m%st be to b%y time "or those #eace"%l develo#ments, to maximi.e the chances that this challenge can be met be"ore time r%ns o%t. 2Any critic declaring this to be an o#timistic boo+ hereby stands charged )ith having "ailed to read and %nderstand the above #aragra#h.3 /uide It, or 0top It? Potential accidents richly deserve the attention they )ill get, and )e have con"idence that this attention )ill s%""ice to ma+e nanotechnology a "orce "or im#roved h%man and environmental sa"ety. Ab%se is the greater danger, and harder to deal )ith. 0hen considering a #ro#osed #olicy, the "irst $%estion sho%ld be, 94o) )ill this a""ect the long&term li+elihood o" serio%s ab%se*9 Guiding "eans "a'ing "any Choices G%iding a technology is a com#lex tas+. 5t means gra##ling )ith myriad decisions regarding )hich a##lications are bene"icial and )hich harm"%l in s%ch com#lex areas as medicine, the economy, and the environment. 5t means ma+ing s%ch ha##y choices as )hich o" several good a##roaches to a##ly in cleaning %# toxic&)aste d%m#s and reversing the greenho%se e""ect. 5t also means ma+ing more di""ic%lt choices in #lanning ecosystem restoration and environmental modi"ication. !hese #roblems )ill con"ront %s )ith a range o" choices better than )e have today, yet choices that thro) val%es into con"lict. 0hich is a better %se "or a #artic%lar #iece o" landIthe slo) restoration o" a )ilderness ecosystem, or develo#ment as a recreational #ar+* Either may be "ar better than #avement, stri# mines, and d%m#s, b%t the choices )ill be controversial.

Di+e)ise, in medicine, )e )ill have a choice o" develo#ing many di""erent )ays to c%re cancers, many di""erent )ays to c%re heart disease, many di""erent )ays to c%re A5D/. (%t the technologies that can be %sed to reb%ild damaged heart m%scle co%ld be extended to reb%ild m%scle and connective tiss%e str%ct%res else)here in the body, )itho%t the harm"%l side e""ects o" steroid dr%gs. !he range o" choices o#en to #eo#le )ill be enormo%s, and again )ill be ca%se "or great debate. 0hen a ne) medical technology is disc%ssed today, a "re$%ent comment is, 9!his #roced%re raises ethical $%estions.9 !his is o"ten ta+en as a signal to delay its %se, neglecting s%ch ethical $%estions as 95s )ithholding this li"esaving treatment )hile )e #onder a+in to m%rder*9 0hen a choice raises ethical $%estions or thro)s val%es into con"lict, it is time to ma+e an ethical decision or to ste# aside and let others choose "or themselves. Deciding to avoid )hatever raised the $%estion is itsel" a decisionIand o"ten ethically inde"ensible. e) technologies )ill "ace %s )ith %ncom"ortable decisions, b%t so does li"e itsel". /etting %# r%les "or nanotechnology develo#ment )ill be challenging' "inding )ays to maximi.e research "reedom )hile #reventing serio%s ab%se and ma#ing this stic# worldwide is a social challenge o" the "irst ran+. (eyond this are decisions regarding r%les "or its a##lication, and the challenge o" maximi.ing "reedom o" choice and action )hile #reventing serio%s ab%se, again worldwide. !o g%ide nanotechnology means gra##ling )ith a set o" decisions that co%ld %ltimately rema+e m%ch o" the )orldI"or the better i" )e are reasonably )ise, or "or the )orse i" )e are too bl%ndering and inca%tio%s. !o avoid this res#onsibility 2i" )e co%ld3 )o%ld be tem#ting, yet given the environmental and h%man sta+es, it )o%ld, #erha#s, be a )rong o" historic #ro#ortions. +rying to .to# "eans -osing Control !he sim#lest imaginable a##roach to 9g%iding9 nanotechnology )o%ld be to sto# it. !he easiest tri# to #lan is the tri# that goes no)here. !his )o%ld have a certain a##eal, i" it )ere #ossible. (eca%se o" its enormo%s #otential "or ab%se, nanotechnology has the #otential o" doing great harm. 5" )e believe that h%man beings and h%man instit%tions are too incom#etent to deal )ith nanotechnologyIthat they are too li+ely to t%rn it to aggressive military %se, or too li+ely to ma+e it "reely available to madmenIthen the o#tion o" sto##ing the develo#ment o" nanotechnology may seem attractive indeed. (%t the ethical $%estion that m%st g%ide h%man actions is not 90o%ld it be better to sto#*9, b%t 90o%ld attem#ts to sto# ma+e things better*9 @ne o#tion is to #%sh "or)ard, em#hasi.ing the need "or ca%tion b%t also the #otential "or good a##lications. !he #romise o" medical, economic, and environmental a##lications, -oined )ith the threat #osed by a ne) arms race, #rovides a #o)er"%l motive "or international coo#eration. 0ith #ositive goals and an incl%sive stance, international coo#eration is a #romising strategyB it co%ld #rovide a basis "or g%iding the develo#ment and a##lication o" nanotechnology. Another o#tion )o%ld be to em#hasi.e the do)nside, to "oc%s debate on #otential ab%ses in s%##ort o" a cam#aign to halt develo#ment. 5n "ollo)ing this strategy, an activist gro%# )o%ld )ant to do)n#lay the civilian a##lications o" nanotechnology and em#hasi.e its military a##lications. 4orror stories o" #otential ab%se 2incl%ding ab%ses that reg%lation co%ld easily #revent3 )o%ld hel# to ma+e the technology seem strange and dangero%s. !his strategy might s%cceed in s%##ressing civilian research in many co%ntries, tho%gh #robably not all. ?n"ort%nately, it )o%ld also g%arantee "%nding "or classi"ied military research #rograms in laboratories aro%nd the )orld, even in the most morally honest co%ntries, beca%se o" their then& inevitable "ear o" the conse$%ences i" someone else develo#ed nanotechnology "irst. 5n a hostile #%blic atmos#here, research )o%ld be #%shed into secret #rograms, and in secrecy the #ros#ects "or broad international coo#eration )o%ld disa##ear. Attem#ts to sto# nanotechnology "or "ear o" a ne), %nstable arms race become sel"&"%l"illing #ro#hecies. A"ter)ard, the advocates o" this vie) co%ld then

say, 90e )arned yo%K9 as the )orld slid to)ard a )ar they themselves had hel#ed to #re#are. Attem#ting to sto# technological develo#ment is a sim#le b%t dangero%s idea. !he greater its s%ccess, the greater the #olari.ation it )o%ld ca%se bet)een technology advocates and technology critics. A moderate s%ccess )o%ld #%sh research o%t o" the #%blic %niversities and into cor#orate and military research labs. A greater s%ccess )o%ld #%sh research o%t o" the cor#orate laboratories and into heavily classi"ied #rograms. A tr%ly ama.ing s%ccess )o%ld end most o" these, leaving the only remaining military #rograms in the hands o" those states )ith thoro%ghly re#ressive governments or alien ideologies. !his, #res%mably, is not ho) one )o%ld #re"er nanotechnology to be develo#ed. !he only gen%ine s%ccess )o%ld be a total s%ccess, and this )o%ld mean banning research not only in the ?nited /tates, and Germany, and =rance, and the rest o" 0estern E%ro#e, and Ha#an, and the /oviet ?nion, and the Peo#le,s Ae#%blic o" China, and !ai)an, b%t in Korea, /o%th A"rica, 5ran, 5ra$, 5srael, (ra.il, Argentina, Jietnam, and the #art o" Colombia controlled by the 8edellYn Cartel. Dater, as com#%ters im#rove, as chemistry advances, as more and more #roximal #robe microsco#es are b%ilt by high school st%dents, total s%ccess )o%ld re$%ire banning +ids "rom tin+ering in s%b%rban garages in Pittsb%rgh. Com#etitive #ress%res are #%shing technology to)ard thoro%gh control o" matter, and )e have seen that this goal can be reached by many di""erent #aths. Preventing one area o" research )o%ld not #revent the advance, nor )o%ld sto##ing )or+ in one co%ntry. 0hen the ?nited /tates delays dr%g develo#ment thro%gh strong reg%lation by the =DA, dr%g com#anies sim#ly s)itch research overseas, or non&?./. com#anies #%ll ahead. @rbital&la%nch ca#ability and n%clear )ea#ons ca#ability are other exam#les. Jery seldom has one co%ntry given these abilities to another, yet at least eight nations are able to la%nch satellites to orbit inde#endently, at least seven have detonated n%clear devices, and another t)o are s%s#ected to be )ithin easy reach o" n%clear ca#ability. 5ndia and 5srael have b%ilt bombs and la%nched satellites, tho%gh neither is considered a great #o)er or a leading "orce in )orld technology. 0here nanotechnology is concerned, many co%ntries are ca#able o" doing the re$%ired research, and more )ill be in the "%t%re. /o%th Korea has both the needed ed%cational levels and the ambitionB visitors "rom the Peo#le,s Ae#%blic o" China as+ abo%t nanotechnology. A decision at the to# directing the reso%rces o" a nation co%ld get res%lts almost any)here. !he ?nited /tates is only grad%ally being sha+en "rom its ill%sion that it r%les the )orld o" technology. !his ill%sion is a #oor basis "or decisions and action. esponsible Action =or all #ractical #%r#oses, nanotechnology seems inevitable. 0ith )or+, it can be made bene"icial, b%t only i" )e exercise ordinary care in avoiding accidents and extraordinary care in #reventing ab%se. 5t,s hard to get #eo#le to ta+e "%t%re technologies serio%sly. Present&day #roblems dominate disc%ssions, and ideas abo%t "%t%re #ossibilities ta+e e""ort to -%dge. (eca%se o" this inertia, broad international reg%lation o" nanotechnology )on,t be #ossible %ntil nanotechnology already exists, %ntil #eo#le begin to see its res%lts. And then, "or reg%lation to be most e""ective, researchers and governments in many co%ntries )ill need to coo#erate and be on s#ea+ing terms )ith the technology,s critics. 0hat, then, is the socially res#onsible co%rse o" action, the a##roach most li+ely to avoid serio%s ab%se o" nanotechnology and most li+ely to deliver some o" its #otential bene"its* 5t is, )e believe, to #oint o%t #otential dangers and ab%ses and ho) they can be avoided, b%t also to em#hasi.e the civilian a##lications in medicine, the environment, and the economy. 5t is these bene"its that #rovide gro%nds "or advocating o#en civilian develo#ment #rograms, and "or international coo#eration that can #rovide a basis "or e""ective international g%idance. !o g%ide nanotechnology )ill not be sim#le. 0e )ill be con"ronted )ith a range o" choices

greater than )e have "aced be"ore in history. 5t is only by gra##ling )ith those choices that )e )ill be able to a""ect them "or the better.

Cha#ter ,6 Policy and Pros#ects Altho%gh ex#loratory engineering research can sho) certain technological #ossibilities, gaining this +no)ledge can have a #aradoxical e""ect on o%r feeling o" +no)ledge, on o%r sense o" ho) m%ch )e +no) abo%t the "%t%re. 5t gives %s more in"ormation, b%t it can reveal a range o" #ossibilities so vast that )e "eel as i" )e +no) less than )e did be"ore. !he #ros#ect o" nanotechnology and molec%lar man%"act%ring has this #aradoxical e""ect. 5t ma+es certain scenariosIs%ch as a mid&t)enty&"irst&cent%ry )orld o" #overty, or cho+ing on #oll%tion ca%sed by massive acc%m%lations o" t)entieth cent%ry&style ind%stryIseem very %nli+ely indeed. !his is %se"%l in"ormation in trying to %nderstand o%r real sit%ation and trying to ma+e sensible #lans "or the "%t%re. And yet the range o" ne) #ossibilities o#ened %# is broader than )e co%ld have imagined be"ore. @n the negative side, one can imagine b%ilding engines o" destr%ction ca#able o" devastating the )orld as thoro%ghly as a n%clear )ar. @n the #ositive side, one can imagine "%t%res o" stable #eace )ith levels o" health, )ealth, and environmental $%ality beyond any historical #recedent and beyond #resent ex#ectations. 0ithin this s#ectr%m o" #ossibilities 2and o"" to its sides3 is a range o" "%t%res )e can,t even imagine. @%r actions, day by day, are ta+ing %s into one o" those "%t%res. ot to some "%t%re o" o%r #resent #lans or dreams or nightmares, b%t to a real "%t%re, one that )ill gro) "rom the intended and %nintended conse$%ences o" o%r actions, one that )e and o%r descendants )ill act%ally have to live in. /cenarios are %se"%l tools "or thin+ing abo%t the "%t%re. !hey don,t re#resent #redictions o" )hat )ill ha##en, b%t instead they #resent #ict%res o" )orlds that one can imagine ha##ening. (y loo+ing at these #ict%res and seeing ho) they "it together, )e can try to get some idea o" )hich events are more li+ely and )hich are less li+ely, and to get some idea o" ho) the choices )e ma+e today may a""ect the sha#e o" things to come. 0cenario 61 $rdinary Expectations 78996: anotechnology )ill have little direct e""ect on the )orld %ntil it is )ell develo#ed, many years "rom no). !he ex ectation o" nanotechnology, ho)ever, is in"l%encing ho) #eo#le thin+ and act today. >et even this ex#ectation is still in the early stages o" develo#ment and )ill li+ely have little e""ect on )orld a""airs "or years to come. 5n s+etching scenarios, it seems sensible to begin )ith the standard )orldvie), at least "or the next "e) years, and then to loo+ at ho) nanotechnology and the ex#ectation o" nanotechnology might later begin interacting )ith large&scale develo#ments. As this is being )ritten, old #ro-ections o" East E%ro#ean, 8iddle Eastern, and )orld a""airs have recently been %#ended, and ex#ectations are "airly m%ddy. /till, one can identi"y the broad o%tlines o" a conventional&)isdom vie) o" ex#ected events in the coming years and decades' !echnology doesn,t change m%ch in the next "ive years, or indeed in the next "i"ty. Com#%ter #o)er contin%es to gro) ra#idly, b%t )ith "e) im#ortant e""ects. !he great challenges o" technology are environmental' dealing )ith greenho%se gases and acid rain and the #roblems o" toxic )aste. 5n #arallel, more and more nations climb the ladder o" technological ca#ability to s%ch thresholds as the ability to la%nch satellites, b%ild n%clear )ea#ons, and man%"act%re com#%ter chi#s. 0ith the )orld)ide "lo) o" technical in"ormation and the )orld)ide em#hasis on technological develo#ment, more and more second&ran+ co%ntries "ollo) close on the heels o" the technological leaders. Cons%mer electronics contin%es to im#rove, b%t this leads to a better&entertained #o#%lation rather than a better&in"ormed one. Exciting anno%ncements li+e high&tem#erat%re s%#ercond%ctors and lo)&tem#erat%re "%sion contin%e to a##ear, b%t a"ter hearing cries o"

90ol"K9 and seeing only #%##y dogs and "airy tales, most #eo#le disco%nt ne)s o" #%r#orted brea+thro%ghs. Even in the thirty&to&"i"ty&year time "rame, most ne)s#a#er stories and res#ected analysts ass%me there )ill be little technological change. =i"ty&year #ro-ections o" carbon&dioxide acc%m%lation in the atmos#here ass%me that most energy )ill contin%e to come "rom "ossil "%els. !hirty&year #ro-ections o" economic crisis d%e to an aging #o#%lation and a shrin+ing )or+ "orce ass%me that economic #rod%ctivity doesn,t change greatly. 5n terms o" #rod%ctivity and )ealth, the ?nited /tates contin%es to lose gro%nd relative to the booming economies o" Eastern Asia' to Ha#an, /o%th Korea, !ai)an, and /inga#ore. 5n #olitical terms, the @rdinary Ex#ectations scenario is less clear, b%t ex#ectations seem to r%n something li+e this' !he brea+%# o" the Eastern bloc and the colla#se o" comm%nism as a 9#rogressive9 ideal lead to a "reer and more democratic )orld. 5n Eastern E%ro#e, and #erha#s in Central Asia, inde#endent co%ntries emerge, each )ith an ind%strial base and a #o#%lation having s%bstantial ed%cation in science and technology. !he relative decline o" the ?nited /tates economically and o" the /oviet ?nion militarily loosen some o" the ties that today bind the )orld,s democracies to one another. !he decreased threat o" /oviet military #o)er )ea+ens alliances. As A!@ loosens, and as the nations o" E%ro#e integrate their economic and #olitical lives, ga#s bet)een the ?nited /tates and E%ro#e gro). As /oviet #ress%re on Ha#an )ea+ens, the ?./.&Ha#anese military alliance )ea+ens and trade "rictions loom larger in com#arison. 5n this environment, #rotectionist #ress%res increase. An economic crash gro)s more li+ely. A shi"t "rom "riendly relationshi#s to #eace"%l hostility becomes an omino%s #ossibility. !he rise o" m%lti#le, nearly e$%al centers o" economic and technological ca#ability #rovides incentives "or greater integration and coo#eration, b%t also motives "or great com#etition and secrecy. 5n the long term, ho)ever, limited reso%rces and the costs both o" #oll%tion and o" #oll%tion controls bring economic gro)th to a halt in an increasingly im#overished )orld. Po#%lation gro)th d%ring this time has slo)ed, b%t creates great economic and environmental #ress%res. Aeso%rce con"licts escalate into )ar. !he climate has changed irreversibly, the old "orests are nearly gone, and extinction has s)e#t a ma-ority o" s#ecies into nothingness. Jariations on the "irst "ive to ten years o" the @rdinary Ex#ectations scenario can #rovide a bac+dro# "or scenarios covering the rise o" nanotechnology in, #erha#s, the next ten to t)enty years' 0cenario 81 Pollyanna Triu'phant 0e are living in a )orld li+e that o" the @rdinary Ex#ectations scenario )here, a"ter years o" antici#ation, #rimitive b%t "airly ca#able assemblers have recently been develo#ed. =or the "irst time, the media, the #%blic, and #olicyma+ers ta+e the #ros#ect o" nanotechnology serio%sly. 5t loo+s very good to them. !echnical )or+ has sho)n that nanotechnology, once develo#ed, can be %sed in a clean, controlled )ay, and that it can %ltimately dis#lace #oll%ting ind%stries )hile greatly increasing )ealth #er ca#ita. !he antici#ated health bene"its are enormo%s, and a"ter years o" a gro)ing death toll "rom A5D/Ionly #artially stemmed by advances in molec%lar medicineIthe #%blic has become very sensitive to the reg%lar re#orts o" h%man in"ection by exotic #rimate vir%ses "rom A"rica. Concern abo%t the stability o" Earth,s climate and ecosystems has gro)n as "orests have shr%n+ and )eather #atterns have changed. !he #ros#ect o" brea+ing o%t o" this cycle is a##ealing. 5t is clear that nanotechnology is no danger )hen in the hands o" #eo#le o" good)ill, and a relatively #eace"%l decade has allo)ed many #eo#le to "orget the existence o" other motives.

And so, )ith mirac%lo%sly %ndivided #o#%lar s%##ort dra)n "rom a grand coalition o" environmentalists see+ing to re#lace existing ind%stry, ind%strialists see+ing a more #rod%ctive technology, health advocates see+ing better health care, lo)&income gro%#s see+ing greater )ealth, and so on and so "orth, com#anies and governments #l%nge into nanotechnology )ith both "eet and )itho%t reservation. Develo#ment #roceeds at a brea+nec+ #ace, and everyone )ho )ants to #artici#ate in this great vent%re is )elcome. Primitive assemblers are %sed to b%ild better assemblers, )hich are %sed to b%ild yet better assemblers, in laboratories and hobby sho#s aro%nd the )orld. Prod%cts begin to #o%r "orth. !he economy is thro)n into t%rmoil. 8ilitary e$%i#ment also begins to #o%r "orth, and tensions begin to b%ild. A military research gro%# )ith more cleverness than sense b%ilds a monster re#licator, it eats everything, and )e all die. !his scenario is abs%rd, at least in #art beca%se #%blished )arnings already exist. /ince the 19<Cs, %ncritical a##la%se "or ne) technologies has been limited to the no)&de"%nct controlled #resses o" Eastern E%ro#e 2and similar #laces3, and even there the res%lting environmental disaster has become a matter "or #%blic debate, criticism, and correction. 5n the ex#anding "ree )orld o" today, the bene"its, costs, and dangers o" any great ne) technology )ill be thoro%ghly examined, ex#o%nded %#on, and lied abo%t "rom many di""erent directions. 0e may or may not manage to ma+e )ise choices as a res%lt. (%t one thing seems s%re' Pollyanna )ill not tri%m#h, beca%se Pollyanna doesn,t have the "acts on her side. 0cenario ;1 +hicken Little ules the oost Again, )e are in the )orld o" the @rdinary Ex#ectations scenario, and #rimitive assemblers have recently been develo#ed. Again, the #ros#ect o" nanotechnology is being ta+en serio%sly "or the "irst timeIb%t it is someho) #ortrayed as being -%st more o" the same, b%t )orse. Environmentalists vie) it not as an alternative to the #oll%ting ind%stries o" the t)entieth cent%ry, b%t as an extension o" h%man #o)er, and hence o" the h%man ability to do harm. 4orror stories o" technology gone mad are s#%n to s%##ort this vie). Arms control gro%#s are -%sti"iably alarmed by nanotechnology and em#hasi.e its military a##lications. Gro%#s see+ing arms control via disarmamentIand believing in %nilateral strategiesI)or+ to #revent the develo#ment o" nanotechnology every)here they can, that is, every)here )ithin their #olitical reach. !o maximi.e their #olitical leverage, they #ortray it as an almost #%rely military technology o" immense and malign #o)er. /#ecial interest gro%#s in ind%stry see molec%lar man%"act%ring as a threat to their b%siness and -oin the lobbying e""orts to #revent it "rom ha##ening. ?nions, neglecting the #ros#ect o" greater )ealth and leis%re "or their members, "oc%s instead on #ossible disr%#tions in established -obs. !hey, too, o##ose the develo#ment o" the ne) technology. As a res%lt, )e hear not abo%t ho) nanotechnology co%ld be %sed in health care, environmental clean%#, and the man%"act%re o" im#roved #rod%cts, b%t abo%t the insidio%s threat o" tiny, %ncontrollable military monster machines that )ill smash o%r ind%stry. A"ter a "e) years o" hearing this, #%blic o#inion in the ind%strial democracies is "irmly 9against the develo#ment o" nanotechnology,9 b%t this is more a slogan than an en"orceable #olicy. Da)s are nevertheless #assed to s%##ress it, and the "oc%s o" #%blic debate ret%rns to the old themes o" #overty and disease and the ne)er themes o" climatic change and environmental destr%ction. /ol%tions seem as distant as ever. o right&thin+ing #erson )o%ld have anything to do )ith nanotechnology, so only )rong&thin+ing #eo#le do. (%t the initial debate hadn,t become serio%s %ntil assemblers )ere develo#ed, and research had gone still "%rther be"ore the la)s )ere #assed. (y then, nanotechnology )as -%st aro%nd the corner.

Develo#ing nanotechnology is #rimarily a matter o" tools, -%st as )as develo#ing n%clear )ea#ons. Decades earlier, n%clear&)ea#ons ca#ability had s#read "rom one to t)o co%ntries in "orty&nine months, and to another three in the next "i"teen years, des#ite the re$%irement "or large $%antities o" exotic materials in each device. (y the 19;Cs, there )as already a h%ge international trade in chemical com#o%nds, and many tho%sands o" chemists )ho +ne) ho) to combine them to ma+e ne) molec%lar ob-ects, )or+ing not only in %niversity research labs, in cor#orate research labs, and in civilian and military government research labs, b%tIas the blac+ mar+et in designer dr%gs sho)sIsecretly, in criminal research labs. Even in the 19;Cs, a scanning t%nneling microsco#e had been b%ilt as a high school science&"air #ro-ect in the ?nited /tates. !here is nothing large&scale or exotic abo%t synthetic chemistry or abo%t #recise #ositioning o" molec%les. And in o%r scenario, #rimitive assemblers have already been develo#ed and techni$%es "or constr%cting them #%blished 2as is standard #ractice3 in the o#en scienti"ic literat%re. And so the attem#ts to s%##ress the develo#ment o" nanotechnology s%cceed only in s%##ressing the o en develo#ment o" nanotechnology. (%t governments cannot be s%re that other governments are not develo#ing it in secret, and they have no) heard so m%ch abo%t its military #otential that this is im#ossible to ignore. Aro%nd the )orld, governments $%ietly set %# secret research #rograms' some in democracies, others in the remaining a%thoritarian states. !here are even %ndergro%nd e""orts. @nce a #rimitive assembler or even an A=8&based molec%lar mani#%lator is in hand, the remaining challenges are chie"ly those o" design. 5n the 19;Cs, #ersonal com#%ters had become #o)er"%l eno%gh to %se "or designing molec%les. 5n the years since then, com#%ter #o)er has contin%ed its ex#onential ex#losion. Pec%liar elements o" the technoc%lt%re -oin )ithI#ic+ one' radical anarchists, radical reds, radical greens, or radical racistsIin a #ro-ect aimed at bringing do)n 9the corr%#t )orld order9 o" governments, o" com#anies, o" religions, o" h%man beings, or o" non)hite1nonbro)n #eo#le. 0ith res#onsible gro%#s o%t o" the technology race, they see a real chance o" "inding the leverage needed to change the )orld. And so years #ass in com#arative $%iet, )ith occasional r%mors o" activity or ex#os%re o" a #ro-ect. !hen, "rom an %nex#ected direction beyond the reach o" democratic control, destr%ctive change brea+s loose %#on an %n#re#ared )orld. !he s+y "alls, and Chic+en Dittle is vindicated. 0ith l%c+, )e )ill "ind that this scenario is also abs%rd. P%blic debate in the coming years )ill s%rely #resent a more balanced #ict%re o" the o##ort%nities and dangers #osed by the develo#ment o" nanotechnology. !ho%ght"%l #eo#le )ith con"licting vie)s )ill become dee#ly involved. !he im#racticability o" attem#ting to s%##ress technologies o" this sort )ill li+ely become clear eno%gh to give %s a chance o" +ee#ing develo#ment in the o#en, in relatively res#onsible hands. 0cenario <1 International Technori.alry A variant o" the @rdinary Ex#ectations scenario has #layed o%t "or a n%mber o" years no). And a"ter years o" contin%ing t%rb%lence, the net res%lt is this' Ha#anese economic #o)er has gro)n, )ith other East Asian economies beginning to close the ga#. !heir greater investment in long range civilian ATD, )ith a "oc%s since the late 19;Cs on engineering molec%lar systems, has enabled them to ta+e the lead on the #ath to nanotechnology. E%ro#ean economic integration and German %ni"ication, combined )ith the #ress%re o" economic and technological com#etition "rom the ?nited /tates and Ha#an, have t%rned E%ro#e in)ard to some extent. Altho%gh c%lt%ral ties )ith the ?nited /tates +ee# ?./.&E%ro#ean relations on a basically )arm basis, hostility bet)een E%ro#e and Ha#anIalready mar+ed in the 19;CsIhas gro)n. E%ro#e had long en-oyed great strength in chemistry and basic science, and in the 19;Cs had led the ?nited /tates in organi.ing e""orts on molec%lar electronics. !his has #laced them in a strong #osition )ith res#ect to nanotechnology, behind Ha#an b%t ahead o" the ?nited /tates.

!he ?nited /tates remains an enormo%sly #rod%ctive economy, b%t the c%m%lative e""ects o" an ed%cational system that neglects learning and cor#orations that em#hasi.e $%arterly res%lts have made themselves "elt. A"ter decades o" em#hasi.ing the short term, #eo#le no) "ind themselves living in the long term they had neglected. !he reaction to ?./. relative economic decline has not been investment and rene)al, b%t rhetoric and hostility directed to)ard 9"oreigners,9 #artic%larly the Ha#anese. 5t is th%s an isolated and some)hat de"ensive Ha#an that b%ilds the "irst molec%lar mani#%lator and recogni.es its long&term #otential. !he technology is develo#ed in a government&"%nded research laboratory )ith coo#eration "rom ma-or Ha#anese cor#orations. As the res%lt o" increasing tensions, "oreign researchersIthose still )elcome in Ha#anI)ere not invited to #artici#ate in this #artic%lar e""ort. A series o" committee meetings "ormali.es a tacit decision made earlier in choosing researchers, and the s#eci"ics o" this ne) develo#ment are treated as #ro#rietary. 5m#ressive res%lts are anno%nced, stirring #ride in Ha#anese research, b%t the s#eci"ics o" the methods involved are +e#t $%iet. !his scarcely delays the di""%sion o" the basic technology. A"ter the "irst demonstration, even the most myo#ic "%nding agencies s%##ort #ro-ects )ith the same goal. A E%ro#ean #ro-ect had already been started in a =rench laboratory' it soon s%cceeds in b%ilding an assembler based on some)hat di""erent #rinci#les. E%ro#ean researchers "ollo) the Ha#anese #recedent by +ee#ing the details o" their techni$%es as a loosely held secret, in the name o" E%ro#ean com#etitiveness. !he ?nited /tates "ollo)s s%it a year later in an e""ort "%nded by the De#artment o" De"ense. P%blic li"e goes on m%ch as be"ore, dominated by the antics o" entertainers and #oliticians, and by tales o" the "ate o" the environment or the /ocial /ec%rity system in a "antasy&"%t%re o" extra#olated t)entieth&cent%ry technology. (%t more and more, in #olicy circles and in the media, there is serio%s disc%ssion o" nanotechnology and molec%lar man%"act%ringI)hat they mean and )hat to do abo%t them. 5n Ha#an, second&generation assemblers have beg%n to t%rn o%t small $%antities o" increasingly so#histicated molec%lar devices. !hese are #rototy#es o" commercially %se"%l #rod%cts' sensors, molec%lar electronic devices, and scienti"ic instr%mentsB some are immediately %se"%l even at a #rice o" a h%ndred dollars #er molec%le. !here are #lans on the dra)ing boards "or molec%lar assemblers that co%ld ma+e these devices at #rices o" less than one&trillionth o" a dollar. !here are long&term #lans 2vie)ed )ith ho#e and antici#ation3 "or "%ll& "ledged molec%lar man%"act%ring able to ma+e almost anything at lo) cost "rom common materials. !his is exciting. 5t #romises to at last "ree Ha#an "rom its decades&old de#endence on "oreign trade, "oreign "ood, "oreign ra) materials, and "oreign #olitics. (y ma+ing s#ace"light inex#ensive and ro%tine, it #romises to o#en the %niverse to a #eo#le coo#ed %# on a cro)ded archi#elago. 5nvestment soars. E%ro#e leads America b%t lags behind Ha#an and loo+s on Ha#anese #rogress )ith hostility. E%ro#eans, too, share dreams o" a #o)er"%l technology, and begin a race "or the lead. !he ?nited /tates trails, b%t its h%ge reso%rces and so"t)are ex#ertise hel# it #ic+ %# s#eed as it -oins the race. @ther e""orts also begin, and tho%gh they advance steadily, they cannot +ee# #ace )ith the great #o)er blocs. @n all sides, the obvio%s military #otential o" molec%lar man%"act%ring "ires military interest, then research and develo#ment in both #%blicly anno%nced and secret #rograms. /trategists #lay nanotechnology )ar games in their minds, in their -o%rnals, and on their com#%ters. !hey come a)ay sha+en. !he more they loo+, the more strategies they "ind that )o%ld enable a technologically s%#erior #o)er to ma+e a sa"e, #reem#tive moveIlethal or

nonlethalIagainst all its o##onents. De"enses seem #ossible in #rinci#le, b%t not in time. >et it becomes obvio%s that molec%lar man%"act%ring can #rovide de"enses against lesser technologies. Even the great, mythical lea+&#roo" missile shield loo+s #ractical )hen the de"enders have vastly s%#erior technology and a tho%sand"old cost advantage b%ilding military e$%i#ment. o great #o)er seems #artic%larly hostile. (y then, all have "ormally or in"ormally been in a #eace"%l alliance "or many years. >et there are still memories o" )ar, and the bonds o" alliance and military coo#eration are )ea+ened by the lac+ o" a common enemy and the gro)th o" economic rivalry. And so s$%abbles over trade in obsolescing t)entieth&cent%ry technologies #oison coo#eration in develo#ing and managing the "resh technologies o" the t)enty&"irst cent%ry. !here are a tho%sand reasons to #%rs%e military research and develo#ment in these technologies, and nationalistic economic com#etition hel#s +ee# that )or+ secret on a nationalistic basis. 8ilitary #lanners m%st concern themselves not so m%ch )ith intentions as )ith ca#abilities. And so a technology develo#ed in an atmos#here o" commercial rivalry and secrecy mat%res in an atmos#here o" military rivalry and secrecy. Advanced nanotechnologies arrive in the )orld not as advances in medicine, or in environmental restoration, or as a basis "or ne) )ealth, b%t as military systems develo#ed in the midst o" an accelerating m%ltilateral arms race, )ith the $%iet goal o" #reem#tive %se. egotiations and develo#ment r%n nec+ and nec+, and then . . . . 0cenario =1 Enough +oherence Again o%r )orld is a variant o" the @rdinary Ex#ectations scenario, b%t the international environment is in a healthier condition. Des#ite trade "riction, global economic integration has contin%ed. E%ro#e, the ?nited /tates, and Ha#an all have a large sta+e in each other,s )ell& being, and they recogni.e it. 5nternational military coo#eration has contin%ed, in #art as a conscio%s co%nter)eight to con"licts over trade. 5nternational coo#eration in research has gro)n, s#%rred in #art by the Ha#anese desire "or closer international ties. !he end o" the Cold 0ar has made secret military research #rograms less common#lace. 5t is in this environment that #rimitive assemblers are develo#ed, and it doesn,t ma+e a great di""erence )ho gets there "irst. As is standard in basic research, gro%#s #%blish their res%lts in the o#en literat%re and com#ete to im#ress their colleag%es at home and abroad )ith the brilliance o" their achievements. !he arrival o" the "irst assemblers s#%rs serio%s debate on nanotechnology and its conse$%ences, and that debate is reasonably o#en and balanced. 5t covers military, medical, and environmental conse$%ences, )ith a ma-or em#hasis on ho) clean, e""icient man%"act%ring can raise the level o" )ealth and s#read it )orld)ide. 8ilitary analysts consider the im#act o" molec%lar man%"act%ring and its #otential #rod%cts, and concerns are grave, so they %nderta+e classi"ied research #rograms. (%tIas %s%alI secrecy slo)s comm%nication among researchers' those in the classi"ied #rograms "all behind their more o#en colleag%es, )hose in"ormal in"ormation&s)a##ing r%ns "ar ahead o" the #%blished -o%rnals. /ome "orces #%sh to)ard rivalryB others #%sh to)ard coo#eration. A healthy #attern emerges' !hose decision ma+ers )ho ta+e nanotechnology most serio%sly are #recisely those )ho see the least reason "or "%t%re international con"lict among democratic nations. !hey no longer antici#ate gro)ing con"lict over d)indling reso%rces, ine$%alities o" )ealth, and global atmos#heric #oll%tion. !hey see )hat nanotechnology can do "or these #roblems, )itho%t

anyone ta+ing anything "rom anyone else. And so, on all sides, those )ho ta+e nanotechnology most serio%sly are those most inclined to loo+ "or coo#erative sol%tions to the #roblems it #oses. !here are exce#tions, b%t the tide o" o#inion is against them, and their ideas do not dominate #olicy. !he #%blic debate on nanotechnology gro)s, and it ranges "ar and )ide. Enth%siasts s%ggest many )ondro%s a##lications "or nanotechnology. /ome are soon dismissed as being im#ossible or -%st #lain %ndesirable. /ome are )or+able im#rovements on the horrid technologies o" the t)entieth cent%ryB these are develo#ed and a##lied almost as soon as they become technically #ossible. !he rest are harder to eval%ate, b%t in the co%rse o" years o" hard )or+ and care"%l st%dy some o" these are develo#ed and ado#ted, and others are re-ected. At "irst, some #eo#le #ro#osed that nanotechnology be sto##ed, b%t they never #ro#osed a credible )ay to do it. Aealists observing the )orld)ide technological "erment loo+ "or other o#tions to deal )ith the dangers. !he )orld,s ind%strial democracies, ta+en together, hold the decisive lead. !hey have develo#ed mechanisms "or coordinating and controlling technologies )ith military #otential by reg%lating technology trans"er and trade. !hese mechanisms have been develo#ed, exercised, and honed thro%gh decades o" Cold 0ar ex#erience not only )ith n%clear and missile technologies, b%t )ith a host o" high technology #rod%cts and devices. !hese mechanisms aren,t #er"ect, b%t they are %se"%l. As concerns abo%t international instability mo%nt, the ind%strial democracies )or+ to im#rove their team)or+' they rein"orce the tradition o" "ree trade and coo#eration )ithin the cl%b, and strengthen reg%lations that bloc+ the "lo) o" critical technologies to the )orld,s remaining dictators. As a res%lt o" these develo#ments, nanotechnology mat%res in an atmos#here dominated more by economic coo#eration than by military com#etition. !he "oc%s o" #olicy is solidly on civilian a##lications, )ith d%e attention to #otential military threats. !r%st is rein"orced by the a%tomatic 9m%t%al ins#ection9 that is a nat%ral #art o" coo#erative research and develo#ment. 4ard decisions remain, and the sho%ting and the arg%ments gro) lo%der thro%gho%t the )orld,s media. (%t )here the #roblem is clear, and s%rvival or )orld )ell&being are at sta+e, necessary decisions are made and there is eno%gh international coherence to im#lement them. >ears #ass and technologies mat%re. 4ealth im#roves, )ealth rises, and the bios#here begins to heal. Des#ite the t%rb%lence and ang%ish o" changeIand des#ite voices saying, 95t )as better in the old days,9 at least "or them, and des#ite real lossesImany #eo#le o" good)ill can loo+ at the )orld, contem#late the )hole, and a""irm that this change is, on the )hole, a change "or the better. Prospects !oday,s +no)ledge abo%t molec%les and matter is eno%gh to give a #artial #ict%re o" )hat molec%lar machines and molec%lar man%"act%ring )ill ma+e #ossible. Even this #artial #ict%re sho)s #ossibilities that ma+e old vie)s o" the t)enty&"irst cent%ry thoro%ghly obsolete. /cience and technology are advancing to)ard molec%lar man%"act%ring along many "ronts, in chemistry, #hysics, biology, and com#%ter science. 8otives "or contin%ing range "rom the medical to the military to the scienti"ic. Aesearch in these directions is already )orld)ide, and -%st beginning to "oc%s on the ob-ective o" nanotechnology. Already, it is easy to describe ho) +no)n devices and #rinci#les can be combined to b%ild a #rimitive device able to g%ide molec%lar assembly. Act%ally doing it )ill not be so easyIlaboratory research never isIb%t it )ill be done, and in not too many years.

!he "irst, slo) assemblers )ill lead to #rod%cts that incl%de better assemblers. 8achines able to #%t molec%les together to ma+e molec%lar machines )ill lead to a s#iral o" "alling costs and im#roving $%ality, %ltimately yielding many res%lts that #eo#le "ervently )ant' a cleaner environment, an esca#e "rom #overty, health care that heals. !hese bene"its )ill bring dist%rbing changes and %nsettling choices, as ne) abilities al)ays do. !he #ace o" change may )ell accelerate, straining the instit%tions )e have evolved to co#e )ith t%rb%lent times. 8olec%lar&man%"act%ring ca#abilities )ill lend themselves to ab%se, and in #artic%lar, to the constr%ction o" )ea#ons by those see+ing #o)er. !o minimi.e the ris+ o" s%ch ab%se, )e need to develo# broad&based international coo#eration and reg%lation. Domestically, this "oc%s seems the best )ay to avoid #olari.ation bet)een those concerned )ith solving old #roblems and those concerned )ith avoiding ne) ones. 5nternationally, it seems the best )ay to avoid a sic+ening slide into a ne) arms race. As sho)n by the "o%r scenarios -%st s+etched, #%blic o#inion )ill sha#e #%blic #olicy, hel#ing to determine )hether these technologies are %sed "or good or "or ill. !he A"ter)ord )ill loo+ at today,s state o" o#inion and at )hat can be done to #%sh in a #ositive direction. 0e cannot #redict the "%t%re, and )e cannot #redict the conse$%ences o" o%r actions. onetheless, )hat )e do )ill ma+e a di""erence, and )e can begin by trying to avoid every ma-or bl%nder )e can identi"y. (eyond this, )e can try to %nderstand o%r sit%ation, )eigh o%r basic val%es, and choose o%r actions )ith )hatever )isdom )e can m%ster. !he choices )e ma+e in the coming years )ill sha#e a "%t%re that stretches beyond o%r imagining, a "%t%re "%ll o" danger, yet "%ll o" #romise. 5t has al)ays been so.

(*terword !he h%man race is a##roaching the great historical transition to thoro%gh, inex#ensive control o" the str%ct%re o" matter, )ith all that im#lies "or medicine, the environment, and o%r )ay o" li"e. 0hat ha##ens be"ore and d%ring that transition )ill sha#e its direction, and )ith it the "%t%re. 5s this )orth getting excited abo%t* Doo+ at some o" the concerns that bring #eo#le together "or action' Poverty 0ea#ons systems De"orestation !oxic )aste /ocial sec%rity 4o%sing Global )arming Endangered s#ecies =reedom Hobs %clear #o)er Di"e extension /#ace develo#ment Acid rain

A5D/, Al.heimer,s disease, heart disease, l%ng disease, cancer . . . Each o" these iss%es mobili.es great e""ort. Each )ill be %tterly trans"ormed by nanotechnology and its a##lications. =or many o" these iss%es, nanotechnology o""ers tools that can be %sed to achieve )hat #eo#le have been striving to accom#lish. =or many o" these same iss%es, the ab%se o" nanotechnology co%ld obliterate everything that has been achieved. A good com#anion to the #rece#t 9!hin+ globally, act locally9 is 9!hin+ o" the "%t%re, act in the #resent.9 5" everyone )ere to abandon short&term #roblems and today,s #o#%lar ca%ses, the res%lts )o%ld be disastro%s. (%t there is no danger o" that. !he more li+ely danger is the o##osite. !he )orld is heading straight "or a disr%#tive transition )ith everything at sta+e, yet 99.9 #ercent o" h%man e""ort and attention is going into either short&term concerns or long&term strategies based on a "antasy&"%t%re o" l%mbering t)entieth&cent%ry technology. 0hat is to be done* =or #eo#le more concerned )ith feeling good than )ith doing good, the ans)er is sim#le' Go "or the )arm "eeling that comes "rom adding one more bit o" s%##ort to an already&#o#%lar ca%se. !he grati"ication is immediate, even i" the contrib%tion is small. =or #eo#le more concerned )ith doing goodI)ho can "eel good only i" they live %# to their #otentialIthe ans)er is less sim#le' !o do the most good, "ind an im#ortant ca%se that is not already b%oyed %# by a cheering m%ltit%de, a #ro-ect )here one #erson,s contrib%tion almost a%tomatically ma+es a big di""erence. !here is, today, an obvio%s choice "or )here to loo+. !he #otential bene"its and dra)bac+s o" nanotechnology generate a tho%sand areas "or research, disc%ssion, ed%cation, entre#rene%ring, lobbying, develo#ment, reg%lation, and the restI"or #re#aration and "or action. A #erson,s contrib%tions can range "rom career commitment to verbal s%##ort. (oth can ma+e a di""erence in )here the )orld ends %#. $pinion Matters 0hat #eo#le do de#ends on )hat they believe. !he #ath to a )orld #re#ared to handle nanotechnology begins )ith the recognition that nanotechnology is a real #ros#ect. 0hat )o%ld be the res#onse to a ne) idea as broad as nanotechnology, i" it )ere tr%e* /ince it doesn,t "all into any existing technical s#ecialty, it )o%ldn,t be anyone,s -ob to #rovide an o""icial,

a%thoritative eval%ation. Advanced molec%lar man%"act%ring can,t be )or+ed on in the lab today, so it )o%ldn,t matter to scientists #laying the standard careers&and&"%nding game. /till, some scientists and engineers )o%ld become interested, thin+ abo%t it, and lend s%##ort. Science >ews, covering the "irst ma-or con"erence on the s%b-ect, )o%ld anno%nce that 9/ooner or later, the Age o" anotechnology )ill arrive.9 !his is, in "act, )hat has ha##ened. (%t )hat i" the idea )ere "alse* /ome c%rio%s scientist or engineer )o%ld soon #oint o%t a "atal error in the idea. /ince the s)ee#ing im#lications o" nanotechnology ma+e many #eo#le %ncom"ortable, a good co%nterarg%ment )o%ld s#read "ast, and )o%ld soon be on the li#s o" everyone )ho )o%ld #re"er to dismiss the )hole thing. o s%ch co%nterarg%ment has been heard. !he most li+ely reason is that nanotechnology is a so%nd idea. Aeactions have been changing "rom 9!hat,s ridic%lo%s9 to 9!hat,s obvio%s.9 !he basic recognition o" the iss%e is almost in #lace. 0hen nanotechnology emerges "rom the )orld o" ideas to the )orld o" #hysical reality, )e )ill need to be #re#ared. (%t )hat does this re$%ire* !o %nderstand )hat needs to be done today, it is best to begin )ith the long term and then )or+ bac+ to the #resent. Where We Will Need to !e 0hen the )orld is in the #rocess o" assimilating molec%lar man%"act%ring, years "rom no), it )o%ld be best i" #eo#le )ere ready and i" the )orld sit%ation "avored #eace"%l, coo#erative a##lications. (alanced international #rogress )o%ld be better than dominance by any nation. Coo#erative develo#ment )o%ld be better than technological rivalry. A "oc%s on civilian goals )o%ld be better than a "oc%s on military goals. A )ell&in"ormed #%blic s%##orting so%nd #olicies )o%ld be better than a startled #%blic s%##orting hal"&ba+ed schemes. All these goals )ill be best served i" #oliticians aren,t "orced to act li+e idiotsIthat is, i" the state o" #%blic o#inion #ermits them to ma+e the right decisions, and #erha#s even ma+es bad decisions #olitically costly. !he basic ob-ective is straight"or)ard' a )orld in )hich as many #eo#le as #ossible have a basic %nderstanding o" )hat is ha##ening, a #ict%re o" ho) it can lead to a better "%t%re, and a broad %nderstanding o" )hat to do 2and not to do3 to reach that "%t%re. !he o%tlines o" a #ositive scenario )o%ld then loo+ something li+e this' Environmental gro%#s and agencies have tho%ght thro%gh the iss%es raised by nanotechnology, and +no) )hat a##lications they )ant to #romote and )hat ab%ses they )ant to #revent. Di+e)ise, medical associations, associations o" retired #ersons, and the /ocial /ec%rity Administration have tho%ght thro%gh the iss%es raised by dramatically im#roved medical care and economic #rod%ctivity, and are ready )ith #olicy recommendations. (%siness gro%#s have done li+e)ise )ith economic iss%es, and b%siness )atchdog gro%#s are ready to ex#ose #olicies that merely serve s#ecial interests. Dabor gro%#s have considered the im#act o" a dee#, global economic restr%ct%ring on the -obs and income o" their members, and have #ro#osals "or c%shioning the shoc+ )itho%t holding do)n #rod%ctivity. Aeligio%s leaders have considered the moral dimensions o" many a##lications, and are ready )ith advice. 8ilitary analysts and arms control analysts have done the #ainsta+ing )or+ o" thin+ing thro%gh strategic scenarios, and have develo#ed an agreed&on core o" #olicies "or maintaining stability. 5nternational committees and agencies have made the ne) technologies a "oc%s o" disc%ssion and #lanning, and bac+ed by a healthy climate o" o#inion, they ma+e international coo#eration )or+. @verall, s%##orted by a "rame)or+ o" sensible #%blic o#inion and sensible #olitics, the com#lex #rocess o" ada#ting to change is )or+ing rather )ell. 5n "ield a"ter "ield, gro%# a"ter gro%# has #%t in the hard )or+ needed to come %# )ith #olicies that )o%ld advance their real interests )itho%t )rec+ing someone else,s interests. !his is #ossible more o"ten than most )o%ld have ex#ected, beca%se molec%lar man%"act%ring ma+es #ossible so many #ositive&s%m choices. !here are still big battles, b%t there is also a large core o" agreement.

5n this time o" transition, some #eo#le are actively involved in develo#ing and g%iding the technologies, b%t most #eo#le act as citi.ens, cons%mers, )or+ers, "riends, and "amily members. !hey sha#e )hat ha##ens in the broader )orld by their votes, contrib%tions, and #%rchases. !hey sha#e )hat ha##ens in their "amilies and comm%nities by )hat they say, )hat they do, and es#ecially by the ed%cational investments they have made or s%##orted. (y their choices, they determine )hat nanotechnology means "or daily li"e. 5o3 We +an /et There A )orld li+e this )ill re$%ire years o" #re#aration. 0hat can #eo#le do over the coming years to hel# this sort o" )orld emerge, to im#rove the #ros#ects "or a #eace"%l and bene"icial transition to ne) technologies* =or the time being, the main tas+ is to s#read in"ormation. Peo#le )ithin existing organi.ations can n%dge them to)ard eval%ating nanotechnology and molec%lar man%"act%ring. A good start is to introd%ce others in the organi.ation to the conce#ts, and tal+ thro%gh some o" their im#lications. =ollo)&%# activities )ill de#end on the gro%#, its reso%rces, and its #%r#oses. =or the time being, dra"ting o" ne) reg%lations, lobbying o" Congress, and the li+e all seem #remat%re. Getting nanotechnology into the #lanning #rocess, tho%gh, seems overd%e. 0e invite existing organi.ations )ith concerns regarding medicine, the economy, the environment, and other iss%es o" #%blic #olicy to #%t nanotechnology on their agendas, and to -oin in debating and %ltimately im#lementing sensible #olicies. /ome gro%#s are doing relevant research )or+. 8any co%ld bias their choice o" #ro-ects to "avor goals in the direction o" molec%lar systems engineering. =or nanotechnology to be ta+en really serio%sly, some research gro%# )ill have to b%ild a reasonably ca#able molec%lar mani#%lator or a #rimitive assembler. !his )ill re$%ire an interdisci#inary team, years o" )or+, and a total cost %nli+ely to exceed one tenth that o" a single "light o" the ?./. /#ace /h%ttle. @ther researchers can hel# by #roviding "%rther theoretical st%dies o" )hat advanced molec%lar man%"act%ring and nanotechnology )ill ma+e #ossible. !hese st%dies can hel# gro%#s +no) )hat to antici#ate in their #lanning. /ome scientists and engineers )ill )ant to steer their careers into the "ield o" nanotechnology. 8ore st%dents )ill )ant to st%dy a combination o" #hysics, chemistry, and engineering that )ill #re#are them to contrib%te. 0e enco%rage #eo#le o" common sense and good)ill to become involved in develo#ing nanotechnology. =or those )ho haveIor can gainIthe necessary technical bac+gro%nds, becoming involved )ith its develo#ment is an excellent )ay to in"l%ence ho) it is %sed. =or better or "or )orse, technical ex#erts in a "ield have a dis#ro#ortionate in"l%ence over related #olicies. D%ring these years, there )ill be a gro)ing need "or grass&roots organi.ations aimed at #%blic ed%cation and b%ilding a base "or #olitical action. 4aving a "e) tho%sand #eo#le ready to )rite "ive letters to Congress in some cr%cial year co%ld ma+e the di""erence bet)een a )orld that )or+s and a )orld destroyed by the long&term e""ects o" a shortsighted bill. 0hat ha##ens )ill de#end on )hat #eo#le do, and )hat #eo#le do )ill de#end on )hat they believe. !he )orld is over)helmingly sha#ed by the state o" o#inion' #eo#le,s o#inions abo%t )hat )ill and )on,t ha##en, )hat )ill and )on,t )or+, )hat )ill and )on,t #rove #ro"itable or bene"icial "or themselves, "or their "amilies, "or their b%sinesses, "or their comm%nities, "or the )orld. !his state o" o#inionIas ex#ressed in )hat #eo#le say to each other, and )hether their actions con"orm to their )ordsIsha#es decisions day to day. D%ring these years, it )ill matter greatly )hat #eo#le are saying to one another abo%t the "%t%re, and ho) to ma+e it )or+.

/etting 0tarted 0ith hel# "rom ne) technologies, )e can rene) the )orldInot ma+e it #er"ect, not eliminate con"lict, not achieve every imaginable dream, yet clear a)ay many a""lictions, both ancient and modern. 0ith good #re#aration, )e can #erha#s even avoid creating too many ne) a""lictions to ta+e their #lace. 0ho is res#onsible "or trying to bring this abo%t* !hose )ho )ant to "ight #overty, to earn their share o" the bene"its to come, to -oin in a great advent%re, to meet #eo#le )ho care abo%t the "%t%re, to save s#ecies, to heal the Earth, to heal the sic+, to be at the c%tting edge, to b%ild international coo#eration, to learn abo%t technology, to "ight dangers, to change the )orldInot necessarily all together, or all at once. !o hel# deal )ith the main #roblem today, lac+ o" +no)ledge, yo% can enco%rage "riends to read %# on the s%b-ect. 5" yo%,ve li+ed this boo+, #lease lend it. !he =oresight 5nstit%te #%blishes in"ormation and s#onsors con"erences on nanotechnology and its conse$%ences. 5t #rovides a channel "or ne)s, technical in"ormation, and disc%ssions o" #%blic #olicy, and it can hel# #%t yo% in contact )ith active #eo#le and organi.ations. !o stay in to%ch )ith develo#ments that )ill sha#e o%r "%t%re, #lease )rite or call' !he =oresight 5nstit%te P@ (ox <1C7; Palo Alto, CA 9GFC< G17&FEG&EG9C electronic mail' "oresightZc%#.#ortal.com.

Further Reading !his lists "%rther so%rces o" nontechnical in"ormation on nanotechnology and related to#ics. 2=or more technical material, see the !echnical (ibliogra#hy.3 4oresight Institute !his non#ro"it organi.ation )as "o%nded to address the o##ort%nities and challenges #osed by nanotechnology and other #o)er"%l antici#ated technologies. 8aterials available incl%de the U date ne)sletter, the Bac#ground orientation series, occasional #a#ers, and con"erence ta#es. /t%dents and others #lanning careers in nanotechnology&related research can re$%est Briefing D"& Studying >anotechnology. !he =oresight 5nstit%te s#onsors con"erences on both technical and #olicy iss%es raised by nanotechnology. Aeaders concerned abo%t endangered s#ecies sho%ld in$%ire abo%t the (ioArchive Pro-ect. !he instit%te,s address a##ears at the end o" the A"ter)ord. Engines of +reation1 the +o'ing Era of Nanotechnology by K. Eric Drexler !his "irst boo+ on nanotechnology 2Do%bleday 19;<3 introd%ces the s%b-ect "rom a more abstract and long&term #ers#ective. !o#ics covered incl%de nanotechnology,s relationshi# to scienti"ic +no)ledge, the evol%tion o" ideas, arti"icial intelligence, h%man li"e s#an, limits to gro)th, healing the environment, #revention o" technological ab%se, s#ace develo#ment, and the need "or ne) social technologies&s%ch as hy#ertext #%blishing and "act "or%ms&to hel# %s deal )ith ra#id technological change. Available in (ritain "rom =o%rth Estate, and in Ha#an "rom Personal 8edia 2%nder the title %achines that Create& >anotechnology3. $ther !ooks and Essays At+ins, P.0. %olecules. 2/cienti"ic American Dibrary /eries [E1, 19;63. An elegantly )ritten and heavily ill%strated introd%ction to the molec%lar )orld, sho)ing many molec%les in everyday %se. (ennett,Hames C. Creating Com etitive S ace )rade& a Common %ar#et for S ace Enter rise./anta 8onica, CA' Aeason =o%ndation Policy /t%dy o. 1EF 2A%g%st 199C3, Pro#osed a "rame)or+ "or international technology reg%lation )hich co%ld be extended to nanotechnology. (rand, /te)art. )he %edia -ab& (nventing the Future at %(). e) >or+' Ji+ing, 19;6. Jividly describes the Dab,s )or+ on the #ersonali.ed in"ormation technologies )e,ll be %sing tomorro). (%rgess, Heremy. %icrocosmos. e) >or+' Cambridge ?niversity Press, 19;6. A collection o" bea%ti"%l images o" the microscale )orld. (%rnham, Hohn C. ,ow Su erstition Won and Science -ost. e) (r%ns)ic+, H' A%tgers, 19;6. !ells the story o" scientists, declining e""ort to reaching o%t to the #%blic, and the res%lting erosion o" #%blic %nderstanding 2)hich %ltimately leads to "la)ed #%blic #olicy3. Drexler, K. Eric. 9Ex#loring =%t%re !echnologies,9 in 7oing Science' )he /eality Club ed. Hohn (roc+man. e) >or+' Prentice 4all, 1991. An essay describing the ex#loratory engineering a##roach to %nderstanding "%t%re technological #ossibilities. Drexler, K. Eric. 9!echnologies o" Danger and 0isdom,9 in 7irections and (m lications of !dvanced Com uting, @ol. " eds. Honathan P. Hac+y and Do%glas /ch%ler, eds. or)ood, H' Ablex, 19;9. !his essay disc%sses ho) com#%ter technologies co%ld be %sed to strengthen social mechanisms "or dealing )ith com#lex #roblems. !he vol%me is based on the "irst ma-or con"erence o" the Com#%ter Pro"essionals "or /ocial Aes#onsibility.

8ilbrath, Dester. Envisioning a Sustainable Society. Albany H' /tate ?niversity o" e) >or+ Press, 19;9. A broad )or+ )hich incl%des a brie" disc%ssion o" nanotechnology,s #otential e""ects. 0ildavs+y, Aaron. Searching for Safety. e) (r%ns)ic+, 4H' (o)ling Green /tate ?niversity, 19;;. !his boo+ doc%ments ho) %sing ne) technologies canIand doesIred%ce old ris+s more ra#idly than it creates ne) ones, and ho) either too little or too m%ch ca%tion can decrease sa"ety. Articles and Maga>ines Encyclo edia Britannica*s Science and the Future 6earboo# "115. !his ann%al incl%des an eighteen&#age introd%ction to nanotechnologyB o""#rints are available "rom the =oresight 5nstit%te 2address a##ears in the A"ter)ord3. 9Com#%ter Aecreations.9 Scientific !merican, Han. 19;;. A col%mn describing molec%lar mechanical com#%ters. 9!he 5nvisible =actory.9 )he Economist, Dec. 9, 19;9. A brie", clear, and technically acc%rate introd%ction to nanotechnology. 90here the ext =ort%nes 0ill be 8ade.9 Fortune, Dec. 7, 19;;. 5ncl%des a disc%ssion o" the b%siness conse$%ences o" nanotechnology. 5n"ormation and #%blications on biostasis and "%t%re medical ca#abilities are available "rom the Alcor Di"e Extension =o%ndation, 1EFE6 Doherty /treet, Aiverside, CA 9E7CFB tele#hone 261G3 6F<& 16CF. Science >ews is a )ee+ly ne)smaga.ine, accessible to the nontechnical reader. A good g%ide to 2among other things3 the latest develo#ments on the #ath to nanotechnology.

Glossary /ome terms %sed in disc%ssing nanotechnology and other antici#ated technologies' (sse bler' A general&#%r#ose device "or molec%lar man%"act%ring ca#able o" g%iding chemical reactions by #ositioning molec%les. (to : !he smallest %nit o" a chemical element, abo%t a third o" a nanometer in diameter. Atoms ma+e %# molec%les and solid ob-ects. (to ic *orce icrosco#e D(F"E' An instr%ment able to image s%r"aces to molec%lar acc%racy by mechanically #robing their s%r"ace conto%rs. A +ind o" #roximal #robe. (uto ated engineering' Engineering design done by a com#%ter system, generating detailed designs "rom broad s#eci"ications )ith little or no h%man hel#. (uto ated h%man labor. anu*acturing' As %sed here, nanotechnology&based man%"act%ring re$%iring little

2acteria' /ingle&celled microorganisms, abo%t one micrometer 2one tho%sand nanometers3 across. 2ul' technology' !echnology in )hich atoms and molec%lar are mani#%lated in b%l+, rather than individ%ally. Cell #har acology' Delivery o" dr%gs by medical nanomachines to exact locations in the body. Cell surgery' 8odi"ying cell%lar str%ct%res %sing medical nanomachines. Cell' A small str%ct%ral %nit, s%rro%nded by a membrane, ma+ing %# living things. Disasse bler' An instr%ment able to ta+e a#art str%ct%res a "e) atoms at a time, recording str%ct%ral in"ormation at each ste#. DN(' A molec%le encoding genetic in"ormation, "o%nd in the cell,s n%cle%s. Ecosyste #rotector' A nanomachine "or mechanically removing selected im#orted s#ecies "rom an ecosystem to #rotect native s#ecies. Enabling science and technologies' Areas o" research relevant to a #artic%lar goal, s%ch as nanotechnology. En5y es' 8olec%lar machines "o%nd in nat%re, made o" #rotein, )hich can cataly.e 2s#eed %#3 chemical reactions. Ex#loratory engineering' Design and analysis o" systems that are theoretically #ossible b%t cannot be b%ilt yet, o)ing to limitations in available tools. Gray goo' /ee /tar !re+ scenario. $ une achines' 8edical nanomachines designed "or internal %se, es#ecially in the bloodstream and digestive tract, able to identi"y and disable intr%ders s%ch as bacteria and vir%ses. -i ited asse bler' Assembler ca#able o" ma+ing only certain #rod%ctsB "aster, more e""icient, and less liable to ab%se than a general&#%r#ose assembler. "olecular electronics' Any system )ith atomically #recise electronic devices o" nanometer dimensions, es#ecially i" made o" discrete molec%lar #arts rather than the contin%o%s materials "o%nd in today,s semicond%ctor devices.

"olecular achine' Any machine )ith atomically #recise #arts o" nanometer dimensionsB can be %sed to describe molec%lar devices "o%nd in nat%re. "olecular ani#ulator' A device combining a #roximal #robe mechanism "or atomically #recise #ositioning )ith a molec%le binding site on the ti#B can serve as the basis "or b%ilding com#lex str%ct%res by #ositional synthesis. "olecular anu*acturing' 8an%"act%ring %sing molec%lar machinery, giving molec%le&by& molec%le control o" #rod%cts and by&#rod%cts via #ositional chemical synthesis. "olecular edicine' A variety o" #harmace%tical techni$%es and thera#ies in %se today.

"olecular nanotechnology' !horo%gh, inex#ensive control o" the str%ct%re o" matter based on molec%le&by&molec%le control o" #rod%cts and by#rod%ctsB the #rod%cts and #rocesses o" molec%lar man%"act%ring, incl%ding molec%lar machinery. "olecular recognition' A chemical term re"erring to #rocesses in )hich molec%les adhere in a highly s#eci"ic )ay, "orming a larger str%ct%reB an enabling technology "or nanotechnology. "olecular surgery or olecular re#air' Analysis and #hysical correction o" molec%lar str%ct%res in the body %sing medical nanomachines. "olecular syste s engineering' Design, analysis, and constr%ction o" systems o" molec%lar #arts )or+ing together to carry o%t a %se"%l #%r#ose. "olecule' Gro%# o" atoms held together by chemical bondsB the ty#ical %nit mani#%lated by nanotechnology. Nano0' A #re"ix meaning one billionth 2111,CCC,CCC,CCC3. Nanoco #uter' A com#%ter )ith #arts b%ilt on a molec%lar scale. Nanoelectronics' Electronics on a nanometer scale, )hether made by c%rrent techni$%es or nanotechnologyB incl%des both molec%lar electronics and nanoscale devices resembling today,s semicond%ctor devices. Nano achine' An arti"icial molec%lar machine o" the sort made by molec%lar man%"act%ring. Nano anu*acturing' /ame as molec%lar man%"act%ring. Nanosurgery' A generic term incl%ding molec%lar re#air and cell s%rgery. Nanotechnology' see 8olec%lar nanotechnology. Positional synthesis' Control o" chemical reactions by #recisely #ositioning the reactive molec%lesB the basic #rinci#le o" assemblers. Protein design, #rotein engineering' !he design and constr%ction o" ne) #roteinsB an enabling technology "or nanotechnology. Proxi al #robes' A "amily o" devices ca#able o" "ine #ositional control and sensing, incl%ding scanning t%nneling and atomic "orce microsco#esB an enabling technology "or nanotechnology. Re#licator' A system able to b%ild co#ies o" itsel" )hen #rovided )ith ra) materials and energy. Riboso e' A nat%rally occ%rring molec%lar machine that man%"act%res #roteins according to instr%ctions derived "rom the cell,s genes. .canning tunneling icrosco#e D.+"E' An instr%ment able to image cond%cting s%r"aces to atomic acc%racyB has been %sed to #in molec%les to a s%r"ace.

.ealed asse bler lab' A general&#%r#ose assembler system in a container #ermitting only energy and in"ormation to be exchanged )ith the environment. . art aterials and #roducts' 4ere, materials and #rod%cts ca#able o" relatively com#lex behavior d%e to the incor#oration o" nanocom#%ters and nanomachines. Also %sed "or #rod%cts having some ability to res#ond to the environment. .tar +re' scenario' /omeone b%ilds #otentially dangero%s sel"&re#licating devices that s#read disastro%sly. 4irtual reality syste ' A combination o" com#%ter and inter"ace devices 2goggles, gloves, etc.3 that #resents a %ser )ith the ill%sion o" being in a three dimensional )orld o" com#%ter&generated ob-ects. 4irus' A #arasite 2consisting #rimarily o" genetic material3 that invades cells and ta+es over their molec%lar machinery in order to co#y itsel". Ac+no)ledgments 8any #ro"essors and st%dents at 85! and /tan"ord ?niversity have hel#ed re"ine the technical ideas %nderlying this boo+. !han+s also go to technical a%diences at laboratories in the ?nited /tates, Ha#an, and /)it.erland "or their criti$%es o" these conce#ts. A n%mber o" "riends read early dra"ts and made s%ggestions "or im#roving the accessibility o" the boo+' Hames C. (ennett, Dinda (oyd, /te)art (rand, 4eidi Christensen, Allan Drexler, 4elene (r%n, Aoger D%ncan, /tan and Kiyomi 4%tchings, Peggy Hac+son, Hac+ie K%bal, Aal#h 8er+le, A%ss 8ills, Hanice 8orningstar, Ed ieha%s, 4arold and Hoy Pergamit, Amy Peterson, Gordon Peterson, orma Peterson, !racy /chmidt, /%e /ch%ma+er, Carol /ha), Dei" /mith, and 8arc /tiegler. !o (arry /ilverstein go s#ecial than+s "or s%##ort d%ring the )riting o" this boo+. !han+s also to o%r transcri#tionist Cheri =-ermedal, artist Pa%line Ph%ng, agent Hohn (roc+man, and editor Do%g /t%m#".