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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING
or “Follow the Money…er...Energy”
or master 1 Why added CO2 does NOT cause Global Warming, Removing CO2 will NOT change the temperature. and Why the Sun, Moon and Planets are the natural cause of Cyclical Global Warming and El Nino/La Nina, the PDO and the weather etc.
(c) copyright, John Dodds July 2009
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
This document “John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of Global Warming” ™ is protected under US registered copyright law and international treaties. US Registration # I-212574861 All rights are reserved by the author. All copying of any parts is prohibited. All derivative works are protected by this copyright, except as indicated below, or by agreement with the author. When (not just if) this document makes its way onto the web, it is still protected. Note that if you post it to the web where it can be copied, then you as a distributor are responsible for the royalties for each copy that is not paid for by the copier. Any individual, commercial, government etc copying of any full or partial document requires the payment of copyright royalties of US$10.00 (ten) per copy or part thereof. (just like a music CD or book) Books or similar publications copying parts of this document, or derivative works or translations (electronic, voice, Braille, foreign languages etc) require explicit license permission of the copyright owner at a price to be determined. This includes website copies, printed copies (e.g. textbooks), distributed electronic copies, and any others. Use of these copyrighted documents, for example in lawsuits, publishing or other commercial ventures such as Nova or Discover Science specials or a movie to counter Al Gore’s one, etc. will require negotiated license payments, depending upon the perceived value. Solicitations for book rights are welcome. Use for research and not for profit scientific papers that expand upon the science may quote and use one copy of pieces as needed with an appropriate reference to the “John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming” available at www.Scribd.com. Royalty fees for scientific republication of these derivative articles may be waived. For all other applications , Licenses, full or partial e.g. Ch 2 or Ch 12 only, one time, multiple or unlimited, are available from John Dodds at a price to be determined. email JDoddsGW@sbcglobal.net Royalty payments for copies are mostly on the honor system, but can be enforced under copyright law. For self made full or partial copies make $10 (US) per copy payments to J. Dodds Inc, PO Box 471533, San Francisco, Ca 94147. An electronic based version of the document may be obtained from the www.SCRIBD.com website. By the publication of this document, a claim is made to all government and foreign entities (e.g. US-EPA Auditor General, California Massachusetts etc State auditors and Governments, foreign Governments etc) for any compensation and rewards for eliminating Government Fraud Waste and Abuse in the area of GHG/CO2 caused Global Warming, monitoring, avoidance, alternative power requirements, and related regulations. This document is dedicated to my wife Paula Sanford and our friend Joan Corrigan for their encouragement.- Penguin, penguin, penguin! Biography of John Dodds: I am a retired Nuclear Engineer, (B.Sc. '70 and M of (Nuclear) Eng '72 from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.) I worked for Bechtel Corporation doing computerized safety analysis on Nuclear Power Plants for 20+ years. I have no other affiliation with the oil, gas or power industries, (except buying their products) nor with any environmental or political groups. My motives are selfish. I do not want to see my taxes and expenses increased without a valid reason, especially if it is flawed science.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
Table of Contents
Chapter and Subject Headings Introductory Parable Abstract Chapter 1. REALITY IS: -Identification of various Earthly temperature related charts Chapter 2. Why the “GreenHouse Effect/CO2 causes Global Warming” Theory FAILS. Chapter 3. Overview: The Physics behind the Causes of Earthly Global Warming Cycles. 3.1 The history of Global Warming and Ice Ages 3.2 Arrhenius, Milankovitch et al. Theories 3.3 Fourier’s Energy Balance and Stefan-Boltzmann Equilibrium 3.4 The impact of GRAVITY, Isaac Newton’s equation and Maxwell’s Entropy 3.5 The theoretical impact of Eccentric Planetary Orbits, Orbital Resonances 3.5.1 Elliptical Orbits 3.5.2 Eccentricity 3.5.3 Resonances Chapter 4. Identifying the Global Warming causes from 1850 to 2010 Ch 4.1 Sun/Earth/Moon distance variations Ch 4.2 Jupiter/Earth distance variations Ch 4.3 Saturn/Earth distance variations Ch 4.4 Venus/Earth distance variations Ch 4.5 Orbital Resonances & The PTTI- Peak Temperature Timing Indicator Ch 4.6 Eccentricity, Tilt or Obliquity, and Precession in practice Ch 4.7 Earthly Magnetic Fields and the Ozone Hole/Montreal Protocol Chapter 5. Explaining The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) , El Nino/La Nina and the AMO. Chapter 6. Global Warming Causes for the last 1,000 years Chapter 7. Global Warming Causes for the last 12,000 years, during Mankind’s History Chapter 8 Speculating on Global Warming variations for 10,000 to 5.000,000+ years ago Chapter 9. Fearless Foolhardy PREDICTIONS for 60, 500, and 25,000 years Chapter 10. Other speculations Chapter 11. Suggestions for Further Research Areas Chapter 12: SUMMARY Appendix 1: Methodologies Appendix 2. Sequence of revelation of the Wobble Theory
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
Table of Contents (cont.)
List Of Figures and Illustrations Fig.1a- 400 years of GISP2 and Hadley 1854-2007 MEASURED Global Temperatures Fig.1b- 1000yr GISP2 Greenland Ice Core Temperature with Hadley Global Temperatures Fig.1c- 10,000 Year GISP2 & Hadley Temperatures Fig.1d- 50,000 Year GISP2 (Northern Hemisphere) Temperatures Fig.1e- 50,000 Years of GISP2, EPICA and VOSTOK Temperatures Fig.1f- 750,000 Years of Antarctic Temperature and CO2 Fig.1g- Frequency Analysis chart of Ice Core temperatures Fig.1h- 5 MY of Earthly Eccentricity AND Climate Change Fig.1i- Laskar’s 11MY Earth Eccentricity cycles Fig.1j- Zachos (2001): 70 MY of major Earth temperature, ice ages and C14 Fig.1k- 150 Million Years of Eccentricity for the Inner Planets Fig.1l- Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength for 800KY Fig.1m- Magnetic Field Variation Frequencies Fig.1n- Radiation transmitted by the Atmosphere by Dr Rohde Fig.2a- Solar Earth Atmospheric Energy Equilibrium & Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) Fig.2b- Hansen GISS Model Temperature Equilibrium Fig.2c- GreenHouse Effect Temperature Equilibrium & SBL Feedback Fig.2d- Energy Sources: Solar + Gravity + Magnetic Field Energy Equilibrium Fig.3.2a- Glaciation, Milankovitch Eccentricity and Tilt, & Magnetic Field Fig.3.2b- Earth eccentricity , tilt and insolation at 65 degrees N, for the next 50K years Fig.3.4a- Energy Sources (Solar + Gravity) to Earth Layers Fig.3.4b-Gravity and Magnetic Field Equilibrium Fig.3.5a- Generic Eccentricity from Wikipedia Fig.3.5b- Orbits: Eccentricity and Latitude Angles Fig.3.5c- Jupiter/Saturn 60 year Resonance Visualization Fig.4a- Components of FORCE of Gravity on Earth from 1850 through 2050 Fig.4b- COMPARE: Venus, Jupiter and Saturn Gravity Impact on EARTH to 3 year averaged monthly Hadley Earth Temperatures from 1850 to 2007 FOUR major components to the temperature identified in the Gravity chart as 1. Sun/Earth eccentricity - a longer term effect, – the increasing base trendline which is attributable to the Milankovitch effects of not just insolation but also the larger gravity. 2. Jupiter gravity, an approximate 12 year effect 3. Saturn gravity, an approximate 30 year effect which combines with Jupiter to result in a ~60 year RESONANCE effect and 4. Venus gravity a short term effect which basically contributes temperature “noise”. Fig.4.1a- Sun/Earth Distance Variations 1000 to 2200AD Fig.4.1b- Sun Earth Distance 1940-2025 Fig.4.1c- Moon Earth Distance 1000 – 2200AD Fig.4.1d- Forces on Earth from 1940 through 2020
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
Table of Contents (cont.)
List Of Figures and Illustrations (cont.) Fig.4.2a- Jupiter to Earth Distance for the 20 years from 1680 through 1710 Fig.4.2b- Jupiter to Earth distance from 1600-2200 Fig.4.2c- Jupiter to Earth distance for a 5200 year time period, 3000BC to 2200AD Fig.4.2d- Jupiter to SUN (not Earth) distance, 3000BC to 3000AD, identifying 900+ Year Cycles Fig.4.3a- Saturn to SUN (not Earth) distance, 3000BC to 3000AD, identifying 900+ Year Cycles Fig.4.3b- Saturn to Earth Apogee distance,(furthest distance from Earth) from 1600 -2200AD Fig.4.3c- Saturn to Earth Perigee distance,(closest distance from Earth) from 1600 -2200AD Fig.4.4a- Venus to Earth Apogee and Perigee Distance from 1600AD to 2200 AD Fig.4.5a- ORBITS: Eccentricity and Latitude Angles Fig.4.5b- Sum of the Jupiter + Saturn Forces vs time, 1850-2020, with 1880, 1940 & 1999 peaks Fig.4.5c- SUN Forces at perigees and Jupiter plus Saturn Forces 1900-2070 Fig.4.5d- SUN Forces at apogees, from 1900 to 2070 Fig.4.5e- Component apogee Forces from Sun, Jupiter + Saturn, and Venus, 1900 to 2070 Fig.4.5f- PTTI-Peak Temperature Timing Indicator for 1940-2025, 60 year cycle peaks Fig.4.5g- Visualizing PTTI 60 Year Planetary Cycle Locations Fig.4.5h- COMPARE: PTTI-Peak Temperature Timing Indicator to Earth Temps,1400-2070. Identify, 1) correlation of 60 year planetary cycles with temperature cycles, 2) prediction of NEXT cycle peak in 2057, 2115… and 3) cause of PDO/EL Nino 60 year cooling/warming cycles Fig.4.5i- COMPARE: PTTI vs VOSTOK Temperatures 3000BC to 2000AD, & 900+ year cycles Fig.4.5j- Visualizing PTTI 900+ Year Planetary Cycle Locations Fig.4.5k- Laskar’s 11MY Earth Eccentricity cycles Fig.4.7a- Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength for 800KY Fig.4.7b- Magnetic Field Variation Frequencies Fig.5a- The PTTI Latitude angle relationship to the North/South PDO/El Nino/La Nina Fig.5b- Short term 1995-2015 PTTI North/South impacts, including Venus Fig.5c- Short term 1995-2015 Forces from Jupiter+ Saturn and Venus Fig.5d- Land vs Ocean and North/South Hemispheric Temperatures 1880-2009 Fig.8a- Five Million Years of Earth Eccentricity and Temperature Fig.9a- 1000 Years of Earth Warming Temperature with Projections and longer term cycles Fig.9b- The Previous warming cycle 3100BC to 1200BC Fig.10a- 11,000 Years of SUNSPOTS by Solanki Fig.10b- Sunspots 1600-2010 Fig.10c- Planetary Latitude Angles on the SUN, 1600-2200 Fig.10d- Planetary FORCES on the SUN, 1600-2200 Fig.10e- The Total Forces vs time on the Sun 1600-2200 Fig.10f- The Total Forces on the Sun from 1940-2025, showing the 60 year resonance cycle Fig.10g- The short term 1995-2016, Planetary Latitude Angles on the Sun Fig.12a- SUMMARY: GreenHouse Effect Temperature Equilibrium & SBL Feedback Fig.12b- SUMMARY: ORBITS: Eccentricity and Latitude Angles Fig.12c- SUMMARY: COMPARE: Venus, Jupiter and Saturn Gravity Impact on EARTH to 3 year averaged monthly Hadley Earth Temperatures from 1850 to 2007 Fig.12d- SUMMARY: COMPARE: PTTI-Peak Temperature Timing Indicator to Earth Temps,1400-2070.
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which causes tidal and wind power for example. Ino was laughing her head off as she went by pointing at the Emperor. then adding more CO2 can’t transfer more energy out or raise the temperature because there isn’t any more to transfer out. One day they will come to their senses and stop all this foolishness about carbon offset indulgences and carbon taxes and footprints. Besides it won't hurt them to become a little more energy efficient. But at the back of the space-train was a little girl. One day Emperor IPCC told his subjects that the marble is heating up. The people said no. ( Aug. and Emperor IPCC said don't worry that happens all the time. it violates the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. Everyone knows that just by adding CO2 without extra energy." and she laughed all the way on her trip around the sun. and virtually unchanging.your cousins Stefan and Boltzmann explained it all very neatly in their equation. My Max Well's Demon demonstrates that warming requires extra energy and increasing Entropy."He's only wearing a big medal with an N on it. Even the Emperor's grandfather Arrhenius never seemed to understand that if his CO2 based Greenhouse Effect transferred energy from the colder upper atmosphere down to the warmer ground level. He also didn’t seem to understand that if the CO2 is already transferring out all the energy that’s coming in. It might play havoc with the people who sell indulgences and carbon futures though.. and her brother JC or "Max". It violates common sense.. Just because you add CO2 doesn’t mean that you transfer more energy out. with only the sun shining down on it. or he would know that every time the Jupiter Express comes by it shakes and rattles the blue marble and by gravity adds friction and extra energy to it. then the warmer ground level would just transfer the borrowed energy right back as it returned immediately to equilibrium. "The emperor has no clothes on" she said . All the added people are breathing out too much carbon dioxide and it is warming the marble up. Just then a big old space-train. or taking energy from one place & moving it to another. named Ino Well. But don't worry about the blue marble people.. you just add extra CO2 that sits up there doing nothing. thus warming it up. came shooting by and the marble bounced around and wiggled and wobbled. & warming the atmosphere in the process. It violates the law of conservation of energy. like when the blue marble gets closer to the sun due to its eccentric orbit or closer to the Jupiter Express.) and instead they make projections based solely on the sun's light energy. Heating up only happens when extra energy is added. and show some respect. it can't be happening. the Jupiter Express. there was a little squishy blue marble that sat quietly out in space miles from anywhere. and second ignore the largest and varying sources of energy input into the earth (gravity. He never completed his 8th grade science class. and the sun was just shining quietly up there just as it had always done. He said that the emperor does not know any better. that you can't warm the entire blue marble up. but they saw the thermometers going up and the ice melting. Common sense says that hotter objects radiate more energy and energy flows from warmer to colder. which is thousands of times smaller. 2009) Page 6 of 151 . and those Governments and companies wasting money Wobble Theory 13. You also have to question how the Emperors minions can rely upon global warming computer programs that first fail to implement an energy equilibrium imposed by the StefanBoltzmann Law. Max told his sister to stop laughing.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Introductory Parable: (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Once upon a time. It is nothing. or Entropy. or the Jupiter Express.
with thanks and apologies to Hans Christian Andersen. ( Aug. It just removes the excess CO2 that is usually just sitting up there. 2008. Feb 10. What a waste of resources that could be solving real problems. Dodds. (c) Copyright. J. instead of tilting at imaginary windmills. Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 7 of 151 . Reproduction allowed only with permission.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 trying to reduce their CO2 and energy production but still maintain high standards of living. All those worthless programs to reduce CO2! They just don’t understand that taking the extra excess CO2 out of the air will not change the global air temperature. And then there is all that research and those economic studies using the computer programs and flawed temperature projections that is just plain wrong.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 ABSTRACT (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Public Summary The current Hansen/NASA/GISS/IPCC scientific theory and computer models is that adding more CO2 causes more greenhouse effect which causes more warming. This is wrong. At night when the sun goes down, there is less energy coming in and going out, there is less CO2 used in the Greenhouse effect even when there is more CO2, and the temperature goes down. There is then excess CO2 just sitting in the air, doing nothing, at times perhaps more than 50% is doing nothing. This excess CO2 does NOT cause more warming. The correct theory is actually that the more energy that comes in and out, then the more warming and more greenhouse effect there is. The change in energy flow, not the change in CO2 causes the cooling and warming. It cools at night warms in the day due to Earth rotation, cools in winter, warms in summer due to annual orbit eccentricity fluctuations, cools for 30 years, warms for 30 years due to the Jupiter/Saturn 60 year resonance eccentricity gravity impact (see below), cools for ~450 years, warms for ~450 years due to the rotation of the resonance effect, cools for 20,000 years, warms for 20,000 years due to the tilt effect from orbital eccentricity,… The current CO2 Causes Warming theory says that the solar insolation or sunlight is the sole source of energy to the Earth. This is wrong. The "John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global warming ©, TM)" (available at www.scribd.com) says that Gravity causes the eccentric Earth orbit and rotation, core temperature, and winds & waves which cause friction and heat. Changes in the force of gravity, in addition to the sunlight, will cause changes in the temperature. Gravity (& solar) variations are caused by orbital changes or eccentricity. The Sun gets closer and further away from the Earth ,The moon gets closer and further away from the Earth, the planets, mostly Jupiter Saturn and Venus, get closer and further away from the Earth. All with different length cycles. The current global warming has increased, since 1850 when they started to measure temperature, in three cyclical almost 60 year waves, It warmed through 1880, cooled slightly for 30 years then warmed through 1940, cooled for 30 years then warmed through 1999, now it is cooling for almost 30 years through ~2028 then it will warm through 2058. Ice core samples extend the 60 year cycles back for thousands of years. The cause of these almost 60 year cycles is planetary eccentricity, or more specifically the almost 60 year Jupiter and Saturn orbital resonance cycle. Every about 60 years Jupiter and Saturn and the Earth (& moon) line up at the closest points in their orbits, thus maximizing the gravity energy that is imparted to the Earth. After the peak, the Earth is moving further away, so the gravity energy is decreasing (Newton's Law of Gravity) AND the Earth's potential energy is being stored up and is unavailable as temperature (like rolling a VERY BIG rock up a gravity well or hill). For the 2nd 30 years the Earth is rolling down the hill, the potential energy is released as heat, AND the force and energy of gravity is increasing, as the Earth gets closer, thus warming the Earth. In addition to the 60 year cycle, there are also ~900 year cycles, resulting in nominal 450 years of cooling, like 1000AD to 1600 AD, then nominal 450 years of warming like 1600 to 2000, or 2800BC to 2300BC. Orbital plots of Jupiter and Saturn, which cause Earth eccentricity AND Ice core temperatures ALSO show these cycles . There are even longer 41,000, tilt, 100,000 and 405,000 year, 2.4MY eccentricity cycles that cause ice ages. The latter is the Milankovitch Theory that was also based on only solar insolation or sunlight energy and it has the major deficiency of not having enough energy to cause ice ages, according to Wikipedia et al. The changes in gravity energy are up to 20 times larger than the solar insolation/sunlight energy. The
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Sun's gravity energy itself is 200,000 times the sunlight energy, but most of it goes into causing the orbit and rotation. When John Dodds Wobble Theory adds gravity energy then the Milankovitch problem is eliminated. Gravity changes, not CO2, cause warming, and cooling and ice ages. Gravity causes warming which causes plant/algae growth, which cause CO2 increases when they die (or burn)- hence the correlation, but not cause. • If the energy (or lack of gravity energy) used in the CO2 Computer models is wrong, then the temperature projection results (IPCC) are wrong, the conclusions regulations (Kyoto Treaty, IPCC, Cap & Trade,, Waxman Markey Energy bill, California/EPA Auto emissions bills), and solutions (reduce CO2) are wrong, all subsequent scientific and economic studies (Stern Report etc) dependant on the results are wrong, all the global warming textbooks & web tutorials are wrong. If the amount of CO2 in the air is always in excess of that used to create the Greenhouse effect, (& currently at a16C average temperature there is less greenhouse effect than when we were at the record 58C in 1922 when CO2 was 280ppm, or the recent 48C in the 2009 Australian bushfires), then adding more CO2 will not impact the temperature. It just adds excess CO2. Likewise, if there is excess CO2 then geo-engineering the Earth, to remove the CO2 will only remove the excess CO2, it will not impact the temperature. If however, we remove all the CO2 then all plants/algae (& people) die. Add more CO2 and you get more plant growth (think 2000ppm when the dinosaurs were here, in the Mesozoic Era, 65M to 250M years ago). The Stefan--Boltzmann Law of Physics, says that at a higher temperature more energy is transported out. This law dictates equilibrium temperatures. If the Earth temperature goes up (eg by more supposed CO2 induced greenhouse effect), then it radiates more energy out to return to equilibrium. If the earth temperature goes down, then it radiates less energy out and the temperature returns to the equilibrium to the energy coming in. Thus adding solar mirrors/collectors to beam energy into the earth, will raise the temperature, adding shading solar mirrors/umbrellas or clouds to reduce the earth temperature (if they can be held in orbital place), will only reduce the sunlight coming in. It will have no impact on the gravity energy which dominates. Since CO2 is produced in the "burn a hydrocarbon-produce energy" cycle, then removing the CO2 reduces the amount of energy produced. It is NOT the same as reducing the particulate or other gas pollutants (NO, NO2, SO SO2 etc) that are produced as by products. These can be filtered out relatively cheaply by scrubbers etc. Substituting "renewable" energy eg solar or gravity caused wind or geothermal energy just raises the cost of the extra energy. If you add 20% solar energy at 15cents per KW, instead of Coal at 3c/KW, then you have doubled the price of energy. Increased energy costs mean that all computer power, manufacturing and fertilizer production, food, transportation ,and heat and air conditioning will cost more. People who can't afford these costs will die. Like the 93 year old Chicago man in 2009, whose winter heat was turned off & he froze painfully to death, or the 15,000 French people who could not afford air conditioning and died in the 2004 heat wave. Eventually when the cost of coal & oil get more expensive (due to scarcity) or the solar and wind and geothermal energy get cheaper, then the energy source transformation will happen. Solar wind and geothermal are not actually "renewable". Once the sunlight & gravity goes past the Earth, it is not recoverable. These energy sources are just larger & more diffuse than coal or oil.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Scientific Summary of Abstract: 1. • Adding CO2 and greenhouse gases to the air does not add energy to the Earth and so can NOT cause global warming, as claimed by the IPCC and the computer models. Adding water vapor to the air does not cause it to warm. Adding CO2 to the air can NOT cause any additional warming because, at equilibrium, and we are constantly at equilibrium per the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, ALL of the energy that is coming in, AND already going out, is ALREADY being transported out by the preexisting CO2 & GHGs & direct to space transport. Adding extra CO2 can NOT transport out any more energy and thus cause added energy delay and greenhouse effect (GHE) because there is NO EXTRA energy available to be transported out. Any extra CO2 will just sit there in the air as excess, doing nothing. The obvious proof is that whenever the energy-in decreases and the air cools, every night, then some CO2 (~13% for a 10 degrees C drop since the reduction in water vapor and CO2 are proportional) that was occupied transporting energy out and adding to warming by the GHE is released (gives up its energy photon to space) and this then is added EXCESS CO2 in the air, above that needed to transport all the incoming energy. Since the GHE worked in 1922 at 58 C when CO2 was at 280ppm, then today at the average temperature of 16C, there could be ~40% of 280ppm of excess CO2 in the air. Man released CO2 (`105ppm) is EXTRA above this excess. It just sits there in the air. The amount of energy coming in and going out dictates how much of a GHE effect there is. The amount of CO2 is irrelevant. The Global Computer Models, the basis for the IPCC conclusions, assume that any extra CO2 added also absorbs this extra imaginary energy and adds to the Greenhouse effect and causes warming. The models also assume that feedback effects also can add or subtract extra energy without specifying where the energy comes from. This is impossible. It violates the Law of conservation of energy. In addition as described in Ch 2 this also explains why the IPCC model violates Entropy, and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, why the IPCC Model violates the Ideal Gas Law, and why the IPCC Models fail to consider all sources of energy into the Earth. The models and IPCC are just plain wrong. They violate the laws of physics. The idea that entire disciplines of mankind’s knowledge can continue without performing a simple basic conservation of energy calculation is as scary as hell. 2. • If extra CO2 does not cause global warming then all efforts to reduce the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere have absolutely no impact on the global temperature. Now if ALL the CO2 is removed, then the temperature will go down but it would also eliminate all life on Earth since algae & plants require CO2 and people supply it. CO2 removal will remove the extra or excess CO2 without impacting the temperature or the essential CO2 that causes the GHE. The IPCC analysis of Global Warming is wrong. The Kyoto Protocol for reducing CO2 levels is not valid and a total waste of money. Carbon trading and offset indulgences are worthless. Economic analyses of impacts of warming are worthless. Projections of sea level rise based on CO2 caused warming are worthless. This is classic GIGO- Garbage Into an incorrect computer program generates Garbage Out. 3. • Global warming is caused by the time variable addition of extra energy to the Earth system, primarily from the Sun, and the moon, then from the planets Jupiter and Saturn, sometimes Venus, and to a lesser extent the other planets. Energy is added to the Earth first by the force of Gravity and gravitons from the various planets, then by photons from solar insolation, then by magnetic fields (magnetrons?) and finally by cosmic ray photons. The amount of energy added by man (nuclear plant, coal/oil burning etc) is trivial compared to that added by gravity and solar insolation. Gravity causes winds, waves, tides, earth rotation
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 etc which by friction add energy to the Earth. The energy from gravity is mostly controlled by the relative eccentricity (distance) of the Jupiter/Saturn 60 year resonance cycle, which is why we have 30 year cooling cycles followed by 30 year warming cycles. The energy from gravity heats the Earth in the same manner that solar radiation does. It is primarily the short transit time that the energy is delayed while being transported into and out of the Earth that results in the Earthly temperature and its variations, of which the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere is but a small part. This paper discusses and details how these mechanisms work. Global warming and cooling is a natural phenomenon that mankind will have to adapt to forever because there is nothing he can do about it. 4. • In addition to direct Earth heating by gravity, there is also energy storage within the planet of the potential energy relative to the sun, and to a lesser extent potential energy relative to the other planets, primarily Jupiter. As the earth moves away from the sun, gravity energy is stored as potential energy. (i.e. rolling a rock up a hill) Potential energy is not detectable as temperature on Earth. As the earth moves closer to the Sun, this potential energy is released some as friction & heat, some as velocity. This explains why the Earth can warm quickly, but cool down over a longer period, during ice age cycles. Within the 60 year Jupiter-Saturn resonance cycle, immediately after the Earth reaches the peak energy point (near Jupiter perigee), then for the next 30 years the Earth moves away from the net Jupiter Saturn equivalent point in irregular cyclic movements depending upon the orbits, so that the Earth to Jupiter & Saturn POTENTIAL ENERGY is increasing, the Earth gets cooler. Then for the 2nd 30 years the net distance from Earth to the J&S equivalent point is getting closer, the potential energy is decreasing & the Earth is warming. 5. • The gravity energy from the Jupiter Saturn resonance also has a north south component to it. When the earth is closest to Jupiter at the peak energy point, then Jupiter is also below the Earth-Sun ecliptic plane and it is adding more energy to the southern hemisphere. When Earth is furthest away, at the Jupiter apogee point, then Jupiter is above the ecliptic plane adding more (but less than the maximum) energy to the Northern hemisphere. This explains why the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino/La Nina, and the Atlantic oscillations etc have a 60 year cycle with 30 years north and 30 years south. Why hurricanes and cyclones have 60 year cycles etc The Venus northsouth oscillation is the primary cause of the shorter El Nino/La Nina oscillation, but it also depends on coinciding with the Jupiter/Saturn energy peaks. 6. • Only the energy from solar insolation is used by the current Global Computer Models used by the IPCC, hence that analysis is not valid since it ignores larger more important sources (gravity) which vary in time. 7. • Since man can NOT (yet?) control gravity, the major source of heat energy to the Earth, then he can NOT control Global Warming. Government efforts to manage CO2 emissions, or to geo-engineer “solutions” are scientifically impossible, a fraud, and rip-off of the tax paying citizens. What they accomplish is increasing the cost of energy, and of everything else that is made by man by using energy. The net result is mankind pays more for energy, which leaves every person poorer. Spending money on CO2 elimination won’t change the temperature but it will kill a lot of people who can no longer afford heating and cooling (& food). The Greenhouse Effect (GHE) does not result in global warming after the Earth has reached (continuously changing) equilibrium temperature conditions. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law will
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 continuously maintain the atmosphere/Earth at equilibrium conditions. At equilibrium, where total energy-in equals energy-out from the Earth, and all of the energy coming in is already being transported out by the GHGs (or direct radiation), the addition of an extra CO2 molecule to the air will not increase the temperature. The added CO2 could only replace an existing CO2 molecule that was already transporting one of the limited number of energy photons out. There would be no extra absorption or delay and hence no warming, unless extra energy is added from outside the Earth. There is no additional energy available to be absorbed. The amount of energy coming in and going out dictates how much CO2 can warm the atmosphere. The added CO2 simply adds to the excess of CO2 that is already waiting in the atmosphere to transport out any added energy, such as occurs when the sun comes up in the morning. Since this excess CO2 exists, and is capable of handling extremely high daily temperatures, then removing any of this excess CO2 will have absolutely no impact on the global temperature. All efforts at CO2 reduction and removal will have absolutely no impact on temperature and are a waste of money. Carbon taxes and carbon trading schemes are a pure worthless tax. Flaws in the computer models used to identify the global warming by GHGs/CO2 are identified. The primary ones are the failure to properly account for the greenhouse effect after reaching equilibrium, but also a failure to comply with the second law of thermodynamics (entropy) by taking energy from the cooler stratosphere in order to warm the warmer ground, a failure to comply with conservation of energy, the requirement to ignore the Stefan-Boltzmann Law in order to maintain the earth in a non-equilibrium energy condition for decades, among others, and finally a failure to account for all the energy coming into the earth (mostly from gravity). In short the Global Computer Models are flawed, leading to incorrect IPCC conclusions, leading to flawed Government programs to combat global warming. The varying and natural warming and cooling of the earth is a result of variations in the amount of energy coming into the Earth over time. The Milankovitch theory has long been used to explain the timing of ice ages, but it fails to account for the total quantity of energy required by several orders of magnitude. The major quantities of energy are explained by the force (& subsequent energy) from external GRAVITY applied to the Earth. The sources of gravity and energy include the Sun, Moon, and planets, AND to a lesser extent the energy from solar insolation, magnetic fields and cosmic rays that impact the Earth. Only solar insolation is used in the current global computer models, a major deficiency which invalidates the models and their results. Variations in the timing of the energy from gravity result in variations in the temperature of the Earth. As Milankovitch identified, the Earth eccentricity, tilt and precession change the solar insolation, but they also change the energy from gravity at the same time. The Energy from the solar gravity is at least 200,000 times greater than the energy from solar isolation, but much of it goes into maintaining the Earth orbit, its spin, its magnetic field AND its core temperature. Variations of the energy from gravity from the planets due to eccentricity cycles, primarily Jupiter, but also Venus, Saturn and to a lesser extent the others, result in time and orbit dependant variations in the Earth temperature. This is why the Sun’s and Moon’s gravity cause tides and wind and ocean currents and friction, which add energy to the Earth. These changes in temperature are beyond the control of mankind, but can fairly easily be predicted so that adverse
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 consequences, droughts, cyclones, hurricanes, etc., can be planned for and mitigated. Variations in the angle of incidence or Latitude (angle above or below the ecliptic (Sun-Earth) plane -and hence the distance and force or energy imparted continuously) of the Energy from Jupiter and Venus results in the variations of the PDO/ENSO/NOA/AMO etc resulting in predictable variations in warming and cooling air and ocean currents. (not to mention changes in Earth’s liquid core currents). This will explain the 30 year warming and 30 year cooling cycles observed in each hemisphere for the various PDO/ENSO/NAO/AMO, El Nino and La Nina cycles. This will allow better prediction of hurricane/cyclone cycles. The strengths of the hurricanes etc however will be dependent upon the strengths of the gravity fields and how they result in increased temperatures. Variations in the incoming force of gravity results in variations in the magnitude & probably locations (and possibly field flipping?) of the Earth’s magnetic field, which is generated by the dynamo effect of charged particles (iron ions in the liquid core) rotating through a varying gravity field, converting the gravity energy to magnetic field energy. Changes in the magnetic field which continuously emits energy to space, result in changes in the energy imparted to the charged particles in the stratosphere, thus accounting for (some/all?) of the recent observed reductions in the energy content and temperature of the Stratosphere, even while the ground troposphere temperature has been increasing due to increasing solar insolation and gravity. The reduced magnetic field will also increase the size of the (charged particle) ozone hole (with less mag field driving force the ions travel a shorter distance towards the poles yielding a larger hole), thus raising questions about the validity of the theory that the hole size is caused by chlorofluorocarbons. (hence the Montreal protocol) Variations in the forces of gravity and the time it takes for that gravity energy to transport through the Earth system, result in varying temperatures and accumulation of energy within the Earth in various forms (spin, potential energy, kinetic energy, temperature, ice, coal, oil etc). This is one source of the energy that continues to supply the heat to the center of the earth, as well as the other planets etc. Radioactive isotope decay also supplies heat, but it is relatively constant and decreasing. This is why Jupiter can radiate out more heat energy than what it takes in from solar insolation, supposedly one of the “great mysteries” of the solar system according to a NASA spokesperson.. The forces of gravity are why Mercury can have a continuous magnetic field as recently discovered by NASA.(and even though they don’t know it yet – it varies with time). This is why the Saturn moon Enceladus can have the recently discovered (& explained) jets of particles that emanate from the “tiger stripe” crevices at the south pole. No doubt there are many other physical phenomena that can be explained by this identification of the sources and timing of energy into the Earth. Some significant ones are identified in the body of this report, such as methane melting will also not cause warming, and increasing warming causes less tilt, which reduces the angle for gravity to cause the Earth’s magnetic field, which then decreases the magnetic field energy transmitted to stratospheric ions, which then causes a larger ozone hole and smaller Northern Lights. (The chemical cause by CFCs needs to be investigated to see how much of an effect is due to the reduced mag field) No doubt others will identify many others. The body of this treatise is devoted to identifying the various forces and energy and their interactions and consequences. As such it requires the reader to first identify many subtle ideas and to assemble them into a coherent theory. It is not a simple problem, but it only requires a
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 basic high school earth science understanding.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 1. Reality is:… (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is… is a series of graphs and charts that show the history of temperature and other related phenomena on the Earth over time. The basic observation is that the Earth Globe has been warming since about 1700, but over longer times the temperature oscillates by several degrees. The changes appear to be somewhat cyclical. Observations and comments about each chart are given on or following the chart. The sources for this data are identified on or near the chart. Many thanks to the many researchers who have compiled this basic information. Also thanks to the NASA WDC (World Data Center) which has complied their collection of data from these researchers and made it available as at the NASA NOAA Paleoclimatology WDC (World data center. ) web site. The body of this treatise is devoted to identifying the various forces and energy and their interactions and consequences. As such it requires the reader to first identify many subtle ideas and to assemble them into a coherent theory. It is not a simple problem. It requires patience and an the ability to bring in ideas from left field. The first idea to get out of your head is that the impacts of mankind are large enough to effect the temperature of the entire Earth. The amount of total energy used by mankind is trivial compared to what the sun’s solar insolation sends through the Earth, which itself is trivial compared to the energy from Gravity that passes through the Earth constantly. So read it all first, before objecting. No doubt there are subtleties that have been missed and can be added by other researchers. It is also evolutionary. Some identifications (e.g. the 60+ year temperature cycle) have been refined (it is now <60 years) so that initial estimates (e.g. the 2064 projected top in the next temperature cycle) have been refined to now be in ~2058 or 9 instead of 2064. The Wobble Theory Document, is structured to 1. Identify the current reality 2. Identify why the current Greenhouse Effect theory FAILS 3. Identify historical findings and their implications 4. Identify the magnitudes and sources of energies contributing to global warming 5. Attempting to Integrate these energies to allow future predictions 6. Identifying future implications and research possibilities
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1a: Earth Global Temperature for ~400 years, 1600-2008 from 1600-1854 by GISP2 from Greenland 1854 through 2008 by Hadley GLOBAL temperature data (GISS data is similar)
This is the current global warming period from the Maunder minimum coldest point in1630 (according to GISP2 data) to now- 2008. Note the ~60 year periodicity. If the pattern holds then for the 30 years from the 1998 high to the next low should take 30 years (to ~2030) followed by a 30 year up move to ~2060, then another 30 year down move. The question to be determined is what will be the magnitude of the temperature in about 2060. Will it be higher than the 1998 high , the same, or lower? It should be noted that the use of the GISP2 data (northern hemisphere) is dictated by the lack of longer term detailed world data. There are hemispherical differences (PDO/NAO) in global temperature that must be accounted for. A comparison to the southern hemispherical data from Antarctica shows some of these differences. Also the GISP2 data with approximately 10 year sample timeframes is the best available. Epica has 200-300 year samples. VOSTOK has 25 year sample intervals. Given that temperature cycles seem to vary in 60 year cycles, or 30 year top to bottom cycles then only the GISP2 data would show this and even then it is subject to missing absolute peaks and valleys.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1b (below):GISP2 Temperature for the last 1000 Years (including Hadley global warming data for the last 150 years)
Note that the current northern hemisphere temperature is approximately as high as that achieved during the last 1000 years, since the Viking medieval warming. It is still much lower than what was achieved in the last 10,000 years This figure is misleading in that GISP2 (Northern Hemisphere) historical temperatures have been grafted together with Hadley’s Global temperature measurements since 1854. Research in this paper has disclosed that temperatures are significantly location and time dependant, e.g. El Nino etc makes one hemisphere or another warmer or cooler than another. The speed with which temperatures are maintained e.g. gravity or solar insolation coming in and out at the speed of light vs the much slower global equalization of temperatures, means that it is feasible to maintain a hemispheric differential (similar to winter vs summer) for years and decades. This means that while a Global Temperature can be calculated, it may not be meaningful when trying to relate to ice core measurements. Just as daily & seasonal variations must be accounted for, then orbital eccentricity variations (e.g. 12, 60, 854/913 year cycles etc) must also be accounted for.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1c (below): GISP2 Temperature for the last 10,000 years GISP2 is located at 72D58” North, & 38D46” West @ elev 3205m.
Note 1 the periodic nature of the temperature variations. There is a spike approximately every 900 to1000 years, there is a 3600 year cycle (4 – 900 year cycles?). Note 2 that frequently there is a 200-300 year period of a rapid increase or decrease in temperature of 1 to 2 degrees followed by a 30-50% correction of equal or slightly shorter duration. These are the NORMAL mode of changing temperature. There have been 17 to 20 of them in this 12,000 year period of the most recent post ice age warming. The global warming propaganda that this warming cycle is unique and unprecedented is totally absurd. Note 3 that the current temperature is just barely into the middle third of the normal range for the last 10,000 years. More warming might be expected, but since we have experienced a 400 year warming trend in three waves then a cooling correction should be expected before the longer term warming trend reappears. (see the trend from ~2800BC through ~2000BC for an example). This middle third is where the majority of mankind’s modern existence has been spent. The prolonged cooling of the Maunder Minimum is the exception rather than the norm. Note 4 that the peaks of 1000AD (Vikings), 100BC (Romans) , 3000BC to 4000BC (Egyptian Dynasties), and 5000BC, 6000BC and 7000BC (farming invented) are ALL higher than the current temperature peak.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
(Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1d (below): GISP2 Temperature for the last 50,000 years.
1.Note the 3600 to 3800 year cycles (horizontal arrows) of cold bottoms. 2.Note that the sharp 20 degree C changes during the cold ice age from 20,000 to 45000 years ago were all of a duration of 900 to 1000 years. Except for two which lasted for ~3600 years. ( or 4 x 900+ years). 3.Note also that the supposed northern hemisphere comet/asteroid hit that in 10,900BC (12,900 years ago) actually happened at a cold bottom. The actual Ice Age bottom was 26,000 or 30,000 years ago, It warmed irregularly to 14,700 years ago It cooled for ~1800 years, until the comet hit Then it warmed for 3600 to 4000 years to the 7000BC (9000 years ago) peak. The idea that the comet/asteroid caused warming is contrary to the theory that asteroids cause dust/smoke which blocks solar insolation. Volcanoes cause dust and smoke which causes cooling for a few years. 4.Also it is noted that these large sharp spikes are less severe in EPICA/Antarctic data either because the 3000 year separation of the data sampling points missed then OR because they did not appear so significant in magnitude in the Southern hemisphere. It is theorized that they relate first to the 913 or 973 year Jupiter sub cycles and second that there is a bias towards the northern hemisphere (i.e. bias towards Jupiter being above the ecliptic place to make the GISP2 data spike so much whereas the EPICA data does not?) Wobble Theory 13, ( Aug, 2009) Page 19 of 151
More detailed analysis should be able to determine this answer.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 5. 6. ( Aug. or possibly even 450 years. then another larger warming for the next 400-450 years back up to the previous peaks near 1000BC and 6000BC.Note that the ~3600 year cycles continue into the current warm age of today.000 BC to 6300 BC ALSO approximately fit the 3600 year cycles. BUT have wildly different magnitudes in the temperature changes. probably with the large warming from 1600-2000. The alternative expectation is that we have already started the next ice age cooling and we may not get back to the previous highs. In the last 300+ years we are coming out of one of those bottom spikes.000BC and 10. followed by a stable or slight cooling for 400 years. Irregular warming might be expected for the next 1500 years or so. 2009) Page 20 of 151 .Note that the great warming & cooling periods from 13000BC to ~10. Wobble Theory 13. except that the magnitudes are not as great.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1e (below): GISP2. ( Aug.000 years Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 21 of 151 . EPICA & VOSTOK Temperature for the last 50.
This may be due to the fact that the EPICA data is for deuterium.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 GISP2 is located at 72d58” North. 1. i.? 3. has NOT been included in EPICA or Vostok.e. & 38D46” West @ el 3205m. The most recent warming for the last 150 years (Hadley or GISS world wide temperatures.000BC (12K yrs BP) through 7K BC (9Kyr BP). ( Aug. Is there an error in Vostok? Is data missing or is the scaling/age dating in error for older age ice? In any case it would greatly enhance research if there were an orbital Ephemeris program to give data for the planets from 50KYBP to 25KY into the future to figure out what caused those bumps. 2. and exactly what progression of orbital changes result in the warming from the ice age.(?) OR it may be that the GISP2 location in Greenland is subject to wider variations in temperature than the EPICA location in Antarctica? Or it may be that the energy input varies depending upon if you are above or below the equator in conjunction with where precession is located. 3323m (i. It is almost on top of the South Magnetic Pole if that has any impact on anything. In both GISP2 and EPICA. just the magnitudes of the increases and decreases differ. the bumps are at 46000 and 38000 years BP. and the GISP2 data is for temperature. Given that the cyclic nature of temperatures with a dominant 60 year cycle. (all straight from WDC) It seems to me that the Vostok data set is off at those two bumps 42000 and 35000 years BP.Note that the temperature increase for the last 400 years and especially the last measured 150 years of Hadley/GISS data would still make the current temperature well below the recent world peaks from 10.e. We are NOT in an unprecedented warm period. 161 degrees from GISP2) VOSTOK is located at 78d27’51” South and 106d57’51” East @el 3500m. Precession will impact the differences. then it is very feasible for Vostok and EPICA data to miss data points at the extremes. EPICA and GISP data. Wobble Theory 13.Note that the long term gross timing still corresponds between the VOSTOK.Note that the data resolution. Note 4: I am not sure about the validity of the three data sets. even though close in Antarctica. 145degrees around the world from GISP2. or timing of when the data was sampled at EPICA is more coarse (several hundred years) than the GISP2 data (10 year increments) and Vostok (~25 years) thus giving less detail. and where we are going in the future. 2009) Page 22 of 151 . not to mention the N/S difference. EPICA is located at 75d South & 123d24’ East @ el.
Clearly the CO2/temperature correlation is no longer valid. As shown in previous slides the temperature is still in the little blue square at the right of the picture. BUT solar insolation variation is only less than 1% of the energy needed to explain it.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1f. 2009) Page 23 of 151 .Long term (750.000 yr) ice core temperatures correlate with Milankovitch cycles ( Earthly eccentricity/distance. which is well off the top of the graph. The figure below. (see Wikipedia Milankovitch entry for “problems”) So where does the energy come from? In the global warming computer models there are no other sources of energy.000 year data before the “present” year of 2000. precession.ie 145 degrees from GISP2) temperature data for the 400. Note that today in 2009.000 years before 1950 (blue) from Jouset et al. from the EPICA (Antarctica) 750. tilt. the CO2 level is currently above 385+ ppm (red X). This increase in CO2 is due to mankind’s burning of fossil fuels for energy. Wobble Theory 13. also shows the obvious correlation (not cause) with CO2 levels (red). Note the current CO2 value of 385+ppm X In the figure to the right the VOSTOK (Antarctica 78d27’51”South & 106d51’57” East. data from WDC Jouset et al (2004) shows the Delta Deuterium data (pink) which also correlates to temperature. ( Aug.).
( Aug.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 24 of 151 .
but I can’t find it again!) There is also a 405.9Ky (?). 15. 6. identify 405KY & 100Ky (or 120 and 93Ky) (eccentricity) 41Ky (tilt).000 year cycle that is related to the Earth’s eccentricity.1 & 14. 12yr 2yr 1y 30 day 1 day etc Earthly cycles. 2009) Page 25 of 151 . ( Aug. 7.5Ky.5Ky. 9Ky. 22 & 19Ky (precession).…60y.000 years ago (see Vostok/Epica data above) Wobble Theory 13. Frequency Analysis charts of Ice Cores . 12Ky. We are currently approaching the least eccentric (almost a circle) orbit (due in about 20.000 year cycle. What causes each one of them? (there is a better chart out there in internet world that also includes the 405.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1g .000 years that was last seen about 380.
solar insolation and gravity induced 3 month Earth seasonal cycles. tilt & insolation induced 1 month Moon induced cycles 1 day axis rotation Wobble Theory 13.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Note also that there is a ~7500 year cycle. (4 x 100K cycles) 100K Earth eccentricity cycles (2.4 Million Yr eccentricity cycles (6 x 405K sub cycles) 405Ky cycles as long term Earth (& other planets) eccentricity. which in itself is a multiple of the ~900-1000 year cycle also in the GISP 2 data. precession.5 tilt cycles?) 41Ky cycles as tilt caused by sub eccentricity planetary sub-cycles? 19-22K Precession cycles (planetary causes? Half a tilt cycle?) 7500 and 3600 year cycles related to multiples of the ~1K yr Jupiter and Saturn cycles? 900 year sub eccentricity long term Jupiter and Saturn resonance cycles 60 year Jupiter and Saturn 5:2 resonance sub eccentricity cycles 30 year Saturn sub-cycles 12 year Jupiter sub-cycles (& solar insolation sun-spot cycles?) 1 year Earth annual eccentricity orbital cycles. This is also approximately a multiple (twice) of the ~3600 year cycle in the GISP2 & Vostok data. We should be able to identify 42Million year Mars eccentricity cycles (A Jupiter chart would be nice Drs Ghil/Laskar) 2. 2009) Page 26 of 151 . that can be seen on the EPICA data from 8200 years ago to about 1000BC. ( Aug.
2009) Page 27 of 151 . ( Aug.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1h. Five Million Years of Earthly Eccentricity AND Climate Change Wobble Theory 13.
besides Jupiter’s eccentricity.004 eccentricity.4MY cycle.4MY (or 6 – 405Kyear sub cycles) resonance cycle impacting this cycle. Once we get to such long timeframes. ( Aug. such as cosmic ray variations.4MY cycle has all 6 cycles in the taller double top pattern. closest levels (~.4MY on either side. it is feasible that the Earth temperature and its eccentricity may have other factors.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1i. Also notice that the patterns of Earth climate are similar in that there are similar patterns to the climate in that there are extreme cold periods (double bottoms) with relatively warmer periods for the 0. The 2. It seems there is a 2.) of nearest distances from the sun. In the Laskar 11 MY chart you can argue that there are 6 x 405KY cycles in each 2.4MY cycles alternate between cycles where the ones at each end are shorter (less extreme eccentricity) with the 4 in between more like taller double top cycles. and the 2nd 2. 2009) Page 28 of 151 . Wobble Theory 13. and gravity variations due to the solar system’s movement within the galaxy as the galaxy’s spiral arms change shape. or as neighboring galaxies come closer or move further away.e. Laskar’s 11MY Earth Eccentricity cycles Note the periods when the 405KY Earth Eccentricity cycle reached its points of least extreme aphelion (i.
there is a 2 wave upward correction from 67MY BP to 50 MY BP. If the Elliott wave structure holds then a warming trend should be expected for the next 10 million years. ice ages and C14 Clearly the 50 million year temperature has structure.before the meteor impact 65MY BP. Again if the structure holds then the previous25MY should have been a cooling wave. As for previous history. From 50 million years to ~35 million years BP. there is a 3 wave down structure. ( Aug. followed by a 9 million year “correction” or upwave. The question is what came before and what is yet to come. 2009) Page 29 of 151 . Wobble Theory 13. It may already be evident in the slight upswing in the C-13 values for the last few million years.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1j: Zachos (2001): 70 MY of major Earth temperature. then from 24 million years to now another cooling 3 wave structure with the last ice age being the coldest.
Ghil 2001 UCLA) No long term cycles for the outer planets was presented although I am sure that they must exist.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is figure 1k: 150 Million Years of ECCENTRICTY for the Inner Planets (Varadi. 2009) Page 30 of 151 . then it should be safe to assume that all the planets EXCEPT Jupiter. have a somewhat similar synchronized pattern. Fannegar. just as they do Wobble Theory 13. AND if the cause of the eccentricities is the gravity interactions of the planets. ( Aug. If the patterns from smaller time intervals are consistent. or can be generated.
See Saturn Sec 4. which occur at 59-62 MY then at100-103 MY. There is a 42MY resonance cycle out there. AND perhaps it also has a resonance switch at 115MY implying an even longer cycle. AND Jupiter should be the exact opposite or inverted. Can this be verified by calculation of the Jupiter orbital eccentricity over the multi-million year time scales?? It requires that the gravitational laws of physics must hold. An analysis of the Mars 150M eccentricity shows a familiar pattern of alternating long and short cycles (spaced about 5Myrs apart.5 on resonances & transition periods) Wobble Theory 13.3 for similar shorter term chart which resolved itself into the Jupiter Saturn 5:2 resonance. the little dogs go right. 2009) Page 31 of 151 . When the big dog goes left.5My where the cycle switches to the previous leg to start the next series of cycles. ( Aug. This would be required to conserve (gravitational) energy between the planets.) It even has the familiar half cycle resonance switches 15-17. (see Ch 3.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 for the shorter term cycles of 60 and 913 years. and that Chaos (Laskar 2003) is just an excuse for not knowing enough of the prevailing physical conditions at the time in question.
000 year cycles) ago.000 years (or two 405. when the last 405. ( Aug. Wobble Theory 13.000 year cycle ended.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1l: Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength for 800KY This chart of the Earth’s magnetic field shows an obvious symmetry around the time about 380. The chart argues for a similar reduction in Earth’s magnetic field for the next 20-25000 years (it has already started. Note that the last time the earth magnetic field “flipped” was about 780. 2009) Page 32 of 151 .000 years ago.see the top left corner) as we continue to the point of least eccentricity in the Earth orbit.
and in fact they are interrelated. 2009) Page 33 of 151 .John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1m: Magnetic Field Variation Frequencies This is a frequency analysis of the Earth magnetic field showing the causes of the various bumps in the field. Wobble Theory 13. ( Aug. This is similar to the Frequency analysis of the Earth’s temperature and orbital eccentricity cycles.
Rhode Note the CO2 absorption curve in the infrared. 2009) Page 34 of 151 .John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 1n: Radiation transmitted by the Atmosphere by Dr. Wobble Theory 13. ( Aug. When CO2 absorbs. it absorbs 100%. You can’t absorb more than 100% even if you add more CO2.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is that the Ground (or troposphere, 0-10Km) temperature is warming at least through 1998, and the Stratosphere (>10Km) temperature is cooling. How can one warm & the other cool? Changes in external Sun/solar insolation HAS to warm (or cool) BOTH levels of atmosphere at the same time. (it happens daily!) Equilibrium is dictated by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law SBL. There is some unknown process that is different in the two parts of the atmosphere that impacts the temperature differently. Current theory says that it is the addition of CO2, but CO2 does not add or subtract energy. CO2 for the last few hundred years has been constantly increasing. If CO2 is the cause of warming, then cooling is not possible during periods when the energy input from solar insolation (i.e. since 1960) is approximately constant. This observation by itself raises questions about the validity of the CO2 causes warming theory. Also there is an energy flow from the center of the Earth out to space, not from space into the ground. If the Earth were not at equilibrium, then the energy flow from ground to space would return the stratospheric temperature to equilibrium. The following chapters discuss these charts and their implications.
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then all the CO2 over the past few billion years would have trapped photons and the air would be very very hot. enforced by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. both in the ground/troposphere and in the stratosphere. will capture and release IR energy photons of selected specific energies. Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 36 of 151 . why the IPCC Model violates the Ideal Gas Law 7. such as water vapor and CO2. why the IPCC model fails to conserve energy 5. why the IPCC Models fail to consider all sources of energy into the Earth. and hence outgoing energy dictates how much CO2 can be used in the GHE. 2. of which water vapor contributes (90+% of the 10% & CO2 <1%) above what it would be if there were no GHGs in the air. why Excess and Extra CO2 are present in the air making CO2 removal ineffective 4. The temperature will not change because the amount of incoming..which it is NOT. A vibrating 900C CO2 will almost immediately transfer energy by collisions to the cooler air molecules and they will all assume the same temperature.i. why the IPCC model violates Entropy. Adding more CO2 to the excess will not change the temperature. The CO2 does NOT TRAP the energy photons. then whenever it goes down there is excess CO2 freed up into the air from the job of transporting the energy out to space. then each CO2 molecule would be at ~900C. The “IPCC Models” are considered to be the scientific studies and papers and Global Computer Models (GCMs -primarily from Hadley Labs in England and the NASA GISS Labs in the US) that contribute to the “CO2 causes Global Warming Theory” explained in the IPCC Reports. The Capture-Release process results in a slight delay (microseconds?) in the release of the energy to space. If GHGs trapped the energy. the Earth’s natural temperature equilibrium. The GreenHouse Effect (GHE) identified by Svante Arrhenius in his 1896 paper (available in Wikipedia) identifies that the addition of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. ( Aug. Because the temperature goes up and down. This delay results in increasing the transit time of the energy and increasing the temperature of the Earth due to the Greenhouse Effect. and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics 6. this will just take the transport job away from a pre-existing CO2 molecule. If there is an increase in the total amount of energy coming in and going out. such that if any man-added CO2 tries to transport an IR photon to space (& increase the Greenhouse effect). hence giving an Earth surface temperature at equilibrium some 30 degrees (about 10% of the total 289K. as they are transported to space. as would all the air. or in the delay or greenhouse effect then the temperature does increase. what Equilibrium Conditions and the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) are 3. Many photons still escape to space directly with no capture and release.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 2: Why the Greenhouse Effect Theory FAILS (at times) (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) This chapter identifies specific areas which explains why the addition of CO2 to the air FAILS to cause warming: 1. If it trapped the energy. guarantees that the Earth temperature will be dictated by the amount of energy coming into (and out of) the Earth. and all released energy went directly to space with no delay. the Greenhouse effect actually does heat the atmosphere. In fact calculations show that there is always excess CO2 in the air.e. methane etc. what the Greenhouse Effect GHE) is. In summary.
The frequency that is absorbed & released by water vapor. What happens is that the excess CO2 AND Water Vapor just sits in the air waiting for extra energy to be made available. and then to space. then any added heat from any supposed added CO2 absorption. At this point all the available energy that can go out is already being transported out by the preexisting CO2 & GHGs. ( Aug. It is analogous to the ground heating phenomenon. 2009) Page 37 of 151 . will cause the GHE from water vapor.. When incoming energy is absorbed by the ground or water. If all the energy that is capable of going out is already going out (at equilibrium). first cannot be created by conservation of energy. The delay while the incoming energy is held in the ground/water as it is transported by convection and conduction through the ground is what causes the ground temperature. it raises the temperature. it then radiates out. Adding additional CO2 can not transport out more energy if there is no energy to transport out.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 The fallacy in the Greenhouse Theory is the assumption that it continues as theCO2 concentration increases. and then there can be no feedback effect because there is no energy created that can be used for the feedback effect. and then this hotter ground radiates IR energy out to the air (where some is absorbed by the GHGs). When the energy hits the ground and is turned into IR radiation. AND the associated DELAY due to convection and conduction in releasing the energy causes the peak temperature to be in mid afternoon. or energy in equals energy out. the frequency applicable to CO2 will cause the smaller greenhouse effect from CO2. rather than at noon when the peak incoming energy occurs. Wobble Theory 13. The idea that the extra heat caused by added CO2 absorption can generate a feedback effect is wrong. In reality the theory only works up to the point where the Earth reaches equilibrium conditions.
a fire.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 EQUILIBRIUM and the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) Fig 2a Equilibrium conditions are defined as when the energy coming in equals the energy going out. then the increased loss would cool the object. a light bulb etc) produces or absorbs energy then the temperature it assumes at any point (from the interior to the surface) moves rapidly towards an equilibrium level. 2009) Page 38 of 151 . where the amount of energy coming in or being produced. Hypothetically. If the amount radiating magically (or by an increased GHG due to more CO2) became smaller then the object would retain more heat and would warm up. The Earth is basically at or very close to equilibrium temperature at all times. and would radiate more. If it was not then the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) would force it to go to equilibrium at the speed of light or of energy being radiated out. the sun. or the Laws of Physics or the SBL). The SBL can be applied at all radii. for a constant energy–in. until it returned to equilibrium with the energy coming in. The object becomes an automatic self regulating device (i. Wobble Theory 13. ( Aug. until it returned to equilibrium. the earth. (There is no mention of a CO2 dependence in the equation) What this means is that if an object (e. Mother Nature. The SBL says that an object (black OR gray body) radiates energy in proportion to its temperature raised to the 4th power. Which would then radiate less since it was cooler. is equal to the amount being expelled out.g.e. As the radius gets larger the surface area increases and the temperature gets lower. always moving towards equilibrium defined by the amount of energy coming in or produced. IF the amount radiating out magically changed to become larger. which defines the temperature.
2009) Page 39 of 151 . Wobble Theory 13. And it is. This is impossible. Locally you can change the temperature (e. the energy source to a point on the surface is always either increasing (morning) or decreasing (afternoon) or zero (night). the weather) but only by taking energy from one location and moving it to another. The IPCC (CO2 causes global warming) process fails to account for the almost immediate return of the Earth’s atmosphere to equilibrium or return to the original temperature after adding CO2. then the SBL does not.g.) explicitly states that the temperature profile of the atmosphere is changed by the GHE (colder air moved to the warmer ground – against all common sense when the actual energy process is transporting energy from the warmer ground to the cooler stratosphere constantly). or 2b at right. then the GHE process must be flawed. Adding or subtracting CO2 does not (significantly) change the energy content. because it ignores that the SBL forces equilibrium.) If the GHE process in the computer models (CO2 causes warming) works. and the second time as we cool down at night and go from a net absorbing energy at that point. which means that the current laws of physics fail. ONLY changing the amount of external energy-in (or produced) can change the Earths global temperature. This contradicts reality.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 In the case of the Earth where it rotates one side away from the incoming energy source. The Earth temperature is always chasing the equilibrium due to the changing level of incoming energy. The NASA GISS model (according to Hansen et al 2005 figure (e). as dictated by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL). ( Aug. once as we go from below the global average temperature of 16C(289K) to above in the morning as we absorb more energy . Since this is flat out impossible. BUT exactly twice a day it passes exactly through the equilibrium point. In fact the GISS model actually states that the Earth Atmosphere is maintained in a non-equilibrium condition until the CO2 is removed. to a net radiating energy out at night. BUT the SBL WILL return it to equilibrium (usually by winds blowing from hot to cold. This is impossible unless they ignored that the SBL re-imposes equilibrium to the energy-in.
any added or extra CO2 molecule that captures an IR photon in the transport out process.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Why Excess and Extra CO2 are present in the air making CO2 removal ineffective Once the GHE is at equilibrium conditions with energy-in equal to energy-out. due to the addition of extra CO2 as is assumed by the Global Warming computer codes and IPCC. as excess. Example 1: With a global average temperature of 289K/16C. from a high of 294 to a low of 284 at night. ( Aug. in desert locations where the temperature records were set. per the Stefan Boltzmann Law. and then that.e. All the energy is ALREADY being processed out by the preexisting CO2. (284/294)^4=0. Now this would be valid if the proportions of GHGs stayed constant. However. will take this photon away from some other CO2 molecule that would have been transporting the IR photon. doing nothing. in which case extra GHG absorptions will happen. (289/330)^4=0. This means that if the CO2 distribution is uniform. or up to 110ppm of excess CO2.60 or 40% doing nothing). Extra increased temperature will only occur if there is an increase in the energy coming in and going out. There will be an excess of CO2 molecules in the air. will have no additional effect on the temperature. then the amount of water vapor is probably less and the change in the water vapor contribution to the GHE is probably greater than the change in the CO2 contribution. The reasoning that the added CO2 does NOT add warming is first there is no energy added by adding CO2 itself. It does not change the fact that the amount of energy in the frequency range that can be absorbed by CO2 is reduced (the sun is not shining) & therefore the amount of GHE attributable to CO2 MUST also be reduced. then at the current average temperature of 16C/289K. There will be no extra delay or extra absorption. up to 13% less CO2 (& 13% less water vapor etc if the reduction were proportional .e. Adding more has little or no impact. then the night side which is radiating less energy out (its colder!) MUST HAVE some. just like it happens every morning. Wobble Theory 13. even before adding the extra 105+ppm of manmade CO2 from burning. lets say that the temperature range is 10 degrees per day.) doing the energy transport in the greenhouse effect part of energy transport. at equilibrium where the energy-in IS equal to the energy-out. then any addition of extra GHGs. NOT the availability of CO2. With the world at or very close to equilibrium temperatures. there is an excess of up to 40% of GHG molecules. This means that some. 2009) Page 40 of 151 .87. Available energy dictates the temperature rise and the GHE. up to 13% of the CO2 is just sitting there. (i. then this 10 degree temperature difference translates to about a 13% difference in the amount of energy transported out. Example 2: In fact since the air once reached a record temperature of 57C/330K (in Death Valley in 1913.& 58C in Libya in 1922) and this temperature was handled by the then existing 280ppm of CO2. I. specifically the CO2 added to the atmosphere by man burning hydrocarbons.
First without CO2 (or GHGs) the energy would radiate out with no delay. 2009) Page 41 of 151 . Water vapor feedback. first consists of the direct GHG catch and release warming effect. Wobble Theory 13. When the temperature rises to equilibrium conditions. If all the energy-in is already going out then there is no more energy available to cause an increase in the Greenhouse effect. It will just substitute for another CO2 that was already transporting the energy out. Perhaps common sense might predict that the temperature on Venus is higher than on Earth because it gets more energy in and because the Pressure in 19 times that on Earth. and none would be available to further increase the temperature above equilibrium. then there would be a feedback increase in water vapor due to the higher temperature. Any of the so called feedback mechanisms will also not work. which in reality cannot exist. This limits the so-called runaway greenhouse effect. then some of the CO2 in the air will delay the photons out resulting in our current constantly changing (due to changing energy-in) equilibrium temperature. not because the atmosphere is 90+% CO2. for example. then all of the energy going out is already accounted for. The GHE would cease to increase. Any CO2 added after this will have no effect. when the energy-in equals the energy-out.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 2c. ( Aug. until the energy coming in (& out) increased. However if the temperature reaches equilibrium. and result in a tiny incremental Greenhouse effect rise in temperature. If one GHG is added this will capture (& release) a photon and delay it. below shows what happens when CO2 is added. again because there is NO extra energy available to be absorbed. GHE & SBL Feedback.
and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. The supposed positive feedback effects result in warming without specifying where the extra energy comes from. This means that the computer program calculations to show that CO2 causes warming are worthless. The process results in global warming (added CO2 adds warming/energy regardless of the CO2 concentration. rather than being always dependant upon the amount of GHG/CO2. thus returning to equilibrium conditions for the given energy-in. The Greenhouse Effect does not function above the equilibrium temperature to add warming. Last I heard the Law of Conservation of Energy does not allow this. which faithfully invoke the greenhouse effect theory (for EVERY CO2 added) to provide the technical/scientific basis for the IPCC reports. Adding CO2 can NOT increases the energy-out because there is NO MORE energy available to be transported out. etc. then the Stefan-Boltzmann Law will increase the amount of heat energy transported out per second at that point (the SBL feedback effect). is ONLY valid as the temperature is coming up to equilibrium. other than costing the people a ton of money in unnecessary excess costs. This also means that the "peer review" done to verify the computer programs AND most of the so called scientific papers using them are worthless. any additional Greenhouse Effect ceases to exist since there is no more energy available for the added GHGs to transport out. as the sole source of energy coming into the Earth. This means that EVERY SINGLE scheme and research effort for CO2 removal is effectively worthless. 2009) Page 42 of 151 . it takes the extra CO2 out of the air but since we have excess plus extra to handle the temperature variations it has ABSOLUTELY no impact on the temperature or global warming. identify the solar insolation. GOD! What a waste! Why the IPCC model fails to conserve energy and obey the Laws of Physics The GHE process used in the Global Computer Program/Models violates the law of conservation of energy. (among others). At that point. This means that the Kyoto Protocol is worthless. BUT if the local temperature is raised. footprints. The GCM models argue that added CO2 increases the CO2 density which increases the probability that more CO2 will absorb more photons and hence raise the temperature. By assigning energy to every extra added CO2 molecule (i. carbon tithing and indulgences etc. which requires the same number of CO2 transports and hence the same unchanged temperature. which hasn’t changed since ~1960. emissions trading. Entropy. The Global Computer Models (GCMs) such as the US NASA GISS and the UK Hadley models. ( Aug. adding CO2 causes warming) the computer models are creating energy out of thin air. OR if the energy-in equals energy-out process is at equilibrium.. This means that most of the research and economic studies based on CO2 increases done with the GCMs is worthless.e. This means the IPCC conclusion is worthless.) without adding any extra energy to the globe. then ALL the energy available for transport is ALREADY being transported out.an absurd physical impossibility that requires the mythical Maxwell’s Demon to move energy from the colder upper atmosphere to the warmer ground level while the Earth is constantly transporting energy in the opposite direction. and the EU has wasted a ton of money. The GCMs fail to account for the more dominant sources of energy provided by the varying and oscillating forces of gravity Wobble Theory 13. Now when we remove CO2 from the air by carbon taxes. as are the economic studies on the impacts that depend on the temperature increases.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Arrhenius’s Greenhouse effect.
then the higher temperature will increase the energy going out (per SBL) which will cool the air back down and return the air temperature to equilibrium with the energy coming in. The Earth itself passes exactly through the equilibrium temperature twice a day on a rotating basis. and yet the world alternately warms and cools. The GHE model results in a warmer Earth without adding energy. If the ground/air temperature is warmer than equilibrium due to the GHE. PV=nRT at equilibrium conditions. The Model ignores that the Earth atmosphere is always at or close to and approaching equilibrium due to the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL).temperature goes down at higher elevations where the density is lower. methane CH4 from the ground. and the addition of 100+ppm of CO2 (due to mankind’s burning of fossil fuels) above the previous high seen at the last two warming phases after the last two ice ages. (solar insolation is essentially constant since 1960 says research & IPCC). When the air density decreases. the ideal gas law governs the relationship between temperature pressure. 1200BC. The GHE model says that ANY addition of CO2 will increase the temperature. that a warmer entity will NOT transfer energy to a colder one) . especially cooling. if you burn a hydrocarbon. GHG warming) ever exists for more than a few minutes (described as a multi-year phenomenon by Hansen et al 2005 as the basis for the GISS model source of warming energy). What reality claims is that when you add a CO2 molecule you remove two O2 molecules. The computer codes can NOT possibly be correct by ignoring such large energy sources. either increases or decreases. add one CO2 and subtract 2 O2s. E. The GHE model violates Entropy and Equilibrium (creates warming without adding energy ) -or requires James Clerk Maxwell’s Demon ( a mythical entity invented to prove entropy. for a NET DEcrease (very slight) in air density. 2009) Page 43 of 151 . The Ideal Gas Law argument: In the Earth’s lower atmosphere or troposphere. then you get a CO2 molecule staying in the air and two water H2O molecules which rain out. In other words adding CO2 results in a trivial decrease in air temperature. & Venus. then the temperature decreases. then that requires that the Stefan-Boltzman Law not function (i. to radiating energy at night.) It does NOT vary energy coming-in levels.g. CO2 just DOES not correlate to global temperature. Also the increase in CO2 in the last few hundred years has not resulted in the global temperature exceeding the highs reached in 100BC. Being at a long term dis-equilibrium is physically impossible.a violation of the laws of physics.e. Saturn. but also from Jupiter.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 primarily from the sun and moon. CH4+2O2=>CO2+2H2O. What the Greenhouse effect claims is that by adding CO2 you can raise the temperature. or in its simplest form. This paper contends that there is no additional GHE Wobble Theory 13. CO2 is continuously increasing when the temperature was decreasing from 1800 to 1910.g. ( Aug. volume and density. If a dis-equilibrium condition (e. to cause temperature variations. and from 1940 through 1970 and from 1998 thru today. as each point on the Earth surface goes from absorbing energy in sunlight. 6000BC and 7000BC (Gisp2 data) or 12000 years ago (EPICA/VOSTOK data). Or the GHE is NOT valid and adding CO2 does NOT warm the air when you are at equilibrium conditions. In other words. with two oxygen molecules from the air. for example causing tidal energy. As a result either the GHE is valid and we will have to rewrite the Ideal Gas Law to add a term to accommodate the GHE. ALL of which provide more energy to the Earth than solar insolation. 5000BC. to move energy from colder locations to warmer location in violation of the laws of physics. has NOT increased the temperature above those seen at the previous highs.
3. (i. 2009) Page 44 of 151 . which means that the amount of energy transferred from the magnetic field to the ions in the stratosphere has also been decreasing. tilt and precession cycles. The same Milankovitch eccentricity (405. when there was a major increase in the global temperature. It is common knowledge that the gravity from the Sun and moon are responsible for the tides. ( Aug. both touted as solutions to the “energy crisis”. This may account for the actual measured lower temperature in the stratosphere and also the increase in size of the ozone hole. & while smaller than gravity they do have an impact.000 and 100. Solar insolation has essentially been flat with very little change from 1960 through 2000. are NOT accounted for. (something HAS to cause it and drive it since some magnetic field energy is constantly being radiated into space. But the planetary forces also have a continuous and variable input to the Earth. which are known to be too small to be responsible for ice age or global warming variations over such a small time frame. since much of the Sun’s force goes into creating the near circular obit of the Earth. 2. However longer term variation are explicitly accounted for as Milankovitch eccentricity. the Earths magnetic field has been decreasing. Saturn and even Venus also vary significantly with time.000 years or so. Magnetic field strengths more or less correspond with ice ages.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 when you are already at equilibrium conditions. Why the IPCC Models fail to consider all sources of energy into the Earth The IPCC reports indicate that the only source of variable external energy to the Global Warming Computer Programs comes from solar insolation which varies with time (somewhat proportional to sunspots) but is much too insignificant to be the cause of global warming or the ice ages (see Wikipedia for Milankovitch Theory. The forces of gravity from Jupiter. The force of gravity is the energy source and causes the magnetic field by the Dynamo effect. Wobble Theory 13. The forces of gravity from the sun as felt on the earth. and are the source of tidal energy. factors proportional to Milankovitch factors) 4.000 and 21000 year cycles) that impact Milankovitch’s solar insolation. These are also larger than solar insolation. and wind power. Several sources of energy have been ignored.000 years) and precession (19. They will only impact longer term eccentricity/tilt/precession effects. and problems at the end). The forces & energy from magnetic fields are also not evaluated. and variations are explicitly stated as being negligible in the Arrhenius paper. ocean currents and winds due to the Earth’s spin. These are the forces that actually cause the Earth’s eccentricity etc. This should be expected if Jupiter is the prime cause of all planetary eccentricity. All these cycles involve variations in the distance of the Earth to the sun over time. Note however that the total forces from the Sun are significantly greater.000 yr cycles) and tilt (41. AND vary vertically (North/South) over time. 1.) For the last 10. except that the variation in the force of Gravity are thousands of times larger.e. 5. The Earth’s core energy is implicitly assumed to be constant. also impact the variations in the force of Gravity on the Earth. These also are implicitly assumed to be relatively constant or at least to average out over a single year so that they should not cause or contribute to year over year global warming. It is noted later that the variation in Jupiter’s forces impacting the Sun & Earth are roughly comparable to the variations in the Sun’s forces impacting the Earth.
( Aug. Wobble Theory 13. The following chapters in John Dodds Wobble Theory of Global Warming evaluate these factors and attempt to predict the future of global warming on Earth.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 2d shows the Forces that result in the Earths Energy Equilibrium It is no wonder that the current computer models do not give reasonable/predictable/consistent results. 2009) Page 45 of 151 . A summary is provided in Ch 12.
) The basis for all existence is ENERGY . (it can not disappear or be created. UV light. Or with added Kinetic (movement) Energy ie velocity/speed. • For any use of energy there is an increase in entropy. AND presumably there are packets of magnetic energy (magnetrons??) that transfer the energy from magnetic fields from one place to another. gamma rays. • Energy generally exists in 4 known "worlds" from small to larger. • GRAVITONS which is packets of gravity energy at the speed of light that transfer the energy of gravity.this is called Entropy..most any movement or conversion involves energy losses to friction.there is some loss to the universe in all processes . oil.seconds. century etc) and space (x. O2.490. 2009) Page 46 of 151 . carbon. planets. the E/M ElectroMagneticMechanical world inhabited by people. U-238…) and molecules (H2. Energy can be converted to mass. Xrays. radiowaves. ( Aug.. Question?: Do gravitons and magnetrons travel at various frequencies like photons?) • MASS (measured in Kilograms. oxygen. c=386..heavy water H-2. visible LIGHT.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 3. galaxies… Wobble Theory 13. Breaking them down releases energy. E=Mc^2 (Albert EINSTEIN) .000 Km per hr. CH4methane a hydrocarbon. hr. coal etc) Basic particles (quarks etc) add energy in the subatomic world and grow to electrons. angular momentum/spin.. tritium H-3. asteroids. momentum. used as solar insolation. N2. and presumably there are also packets of Strong and Weak forces of energy within the atom and nucleus. to put the global climate models into perspective. just moved around) • Processing or using energy is NOT efficient..000 mph. CO2. protons & neutrons which grow to atoms or elements (hydrogen. animals. It is similar to friction in the mechanical world. cosmic rays. F2…) grow to chemical compounds and masses (H2O as water. people…. plants.measured in Joules. coal. liquids. microwaves. Ergs. Mass is energy at zero speed. gas.z) or distance -r (Km) • Energy is conserved. or the process cannot exist. small masses (hydrogen. the atomic or elemental world. IR-infrared light.y. calories • Energy exists in time (t.I'm sure one already exists!) ENERGY can be STORED in many forms.Standard Model of the Universes. (burn oil. … uranium…) with or without extra electrons (ions or charged particles) and/or extra neutrons (isotopes. “in 2 pages or less”. helium. (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) ENERGY (or John Dodds' understanding of how the Classical Universe works related to Global Warming. Kg). Cl2. • PHOTONS (. electrons) at high speed from the sun is the solar wind… More complex masses require/store more energy. solids. (See Wikipedia.) which is electro-magnetic packets of energy traveling at the speed of light. The sub atomic world. UF6 – Uranium hexafluoride. ice or steam. comets. yr. suns. (James Clerk MAXWELL). Uranium-235. or 1. and the Space world (for lack of a better term.fuel for nuclear power plants…) masses accumulate to create gases. Overview: The Physics behind the Causes of Earthly Global Warming Cycles.
This is getting into the Standard Model of the Universe (see Wikipedia) about which I know very little!!) ENERGY MAY BE CONVERTED from one form to another by many and varied processes. Hydrogen. ( Aug. Oxygen. However the models also ignore some sources that have a significant impact on the global temperature. In sum. DISTANCE. This section is intended to put in perspective where all this energy is flying around. the sum energy of all photons and gravitons in the 8. relative to a simple atomic nucleus (hydrogen) baseline (e.g. but in many cases justifiably ignore selected energy sources on the grounds that they are negligible. • NUCLEAR Energy -complexity related to nuclear distance and velocities.the atomic bomb. Carbon. OR hydrogen or helium fusion in a Sun. i. As a general rule of thumb. 2009) Page 47 of 151 . gravity energy is ignored. relative to a simple elemental baseline (Hydrogen plus electron. CH4…) • E/M KINETIC Energy -Velocity of mass relative to a location baseline (includes MOMENTUM energy)..g. potential energy is mostly ignored. drop a sun into a black hole • Gravity energy to Kinetic energy. most chemical energy is mostly modeled (e. a black hole converts mass to photons at the poles. or the Sun etc. convert Saturn gravity energy to Enceladus moon’s kinetic energy of emitted molecules • Gravity energy to Potential energy. burn hydrocarbons. eg Convert uranium nuclear energy to E/M kinetic heat energy.the object that transports energy in the form of a simple magnetic field (as opposed to the photon that transports electromagnetic energy). absorb photons -solar insolation etc. the freezing of water to ice involves the energy of transformation.Measured as TEMPERATURE • E/M POTENTIAL Energy of mass-height or distance relative to a Gravity baseline. magnetic energy is ignored.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 ENERGY PROCESSES involving TIME. • SPACE Energy.g. Wobble Theory 13.complexity related to atomic and molecular distance and velocities. usually energy is NOT converted quickly from one "world" (sub atomic).. throw a ball UP into the air. and expand the perspective of the reader so that they can look at the global warming models from a larger perspective to see the flaws. The models for short term (<200 year) variations consciously ignore the trivial energy variation from solar insolation due to the variation in Milankovitch tilt and eccentricity (& hence sun-earth distance) BUT when you consider the variation in gravity energy due to this same change in distance. allow a planet to go further from the sun out to the aphelion (furthest distance) point. drop a raindrop from the sky. E/M etc) without major disruptions.. let a planet fall to perihelion (closest point to sun). Examples follow. let a planet or asteroid fall towards the sun. eg relative to the Earth. In the Earth climate models. • Potential Gravity energy to Kinetic energy.(does it already have a name?) Is this dark energy and dark matter plus E/M mass (gravity) PLUS photon and graviton energy (e. to another (atomic. Electromagnetic and Gravity forces result in the storage and transfer of energy. to H2 to H2O CO2.e. the energy involved is no longer trivial).5 minutes of space time between the Sun and Earth)?? What about the energy included in magnetic fields? Is there such a thing as a “magneton”. Uranium) • CHEMICAL Energy .). Conclusive Point.roll a rock up a hill.do a satellite fly-by of a planet. Strong. Man and the Earth’s surface is NOT the center of the universe. the Global Computer Models are incomplete. and the 4 (known) FORCES: Weak.drop a rock off a cliff.
000 years of ice ages. (except for the last 100 years of manmade burning of hydrocarbons and release of CO2.the orbit is an ellipse rather than a circle. and currently on Jan 4 the shortest distance to the sun (or perihelion).org/history/climate/ by Spenser Weart.BUT it is a fact) o the Tilt or obliquity of the Earth (currently 23. • The Greenhouse Effect (GHE) proposed by Svante Arrhenius (1896. or 149 million kilometers or 8.0167. then the Ground temperature is about 30 degrees Centigrade higher.1 The history of Global Warming and Ice Ages (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) One History of the 2008 version of Global Warming is available at http://www. how much of the Sun’s solar insolation energy (1366 Watts/m^2 at the 1 AU distance (93 million miles. The website http://www.globalwarmingart. Wikipedia offers more detailed but scattered information. the night side still radiates (less) energy out to space.5 degrees) which will dictate where on Earth the sun hits most directly (hottest point. (This is intuitively wrong to people in the northern hemisphere – where winter (cold) happens in January. then according to the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. • Multi-year variations were complied by Croll and Mulatin Milankovitch (manually no less!) in order to try to explain why the Earth’s energy content varies with time resulting in the Ice Ages. Unfortunately the major problems with the Milankovitch Theory of Ice Age Causes suffers from a major weakness in that the amount of solar insolation energy provided by the changes due to the orbital variations are less than 1% of the energy Wobble Theory 13. than what it would be if the GHGs were not in the air and all the photons went from the ground direct to space.see fig ) Hence the (incorrect) assertion that more CO2 means more absorptions and a higher temperature under all circumstances. at night the Earth shields the night side which receives no solar insolation energy. Changes are due to two major factors o the annual orbital eccentricity (currently . Long term charts of CO2 and temperature have tended to correlate over the last 750. Some energy is reflected by the atmosphere • Daily variations are due to the earth’s daily rotation (historical observations) In the daytime the suns energy hits the Earth and is absorbed. methane etc.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3. The logic is that it takes longer (microseconds) for an energy photon to be absorbed and then the energy released or returned to the air. which catch and release energy photons on their way out from the ground to space.5 minutes of travel at the speed of light) from the center of the sun to the center of the earth) is available to be absorbed by the Earth. and the longest distance (aphelion) on July 4-5 (depending upon which side of the international date line you are on). This longer residence time for the energy in the air results in a higher temperature. In brief: • The sun adds heat via solar insolation (historical observation) resulting in one energy input to the Earth’s surface temperature. contains a collection of figures relevant to global warming. 2009) Page 48 of 151 .com/ by Robert A. Rohde . ( Aug. and in fact since it still has a base temperature.aip. The CO2 does NOT TRAP the energy. CO2. • Yearly or seasonal changes are due to variations in the Earth’s orbital distance (r) which dictates by the inverse R-squared rule.see Wikipedia) says that due to the presence of GreenHouse Gases (GHGs) in the air. such as water vapor.the tropics) and a minor difference in the distance from the sun to the surface of the Earth.
on both a yearly basis (northern Summer vs Southern winter) or on a 10. 2009) Page 49 of 151 . which is related to sunspots. ( Aug.000 year basis (precession cycles) • Wobble Theory 13. GISP2) would not necessarily warm up or cool down to the same extent as a point in Antarctica (e. 10. and hence Earth solar insolation. Precession rotates the extreme point around the world.g. Precession is why a point in Greenland (e. Precession is why at one point in the Ice Age.000 years later. Temperature profiles over time at different locations should not expect to be the same. BUT. the furthest extent of the ice (furthest point from the sun) might be in Chicago USA.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 required to cause ice ages (see the end of Wikipedia entry on Milankovitch Theory). or Vostok). nominally on their 11 to 13 year cycles o Changes in the eccentricity of the Earth Orbit o Changes in the Tilt of the Earth in its orbit (visualize a spinning top leaning over) o Changes in the Precession of the Earth’s axis of rotation (visualize the axis of the spinning top rotating around or precessing while the top spins). hence warmer or colder point. The precession results in a slightly larger or smaller distance from the sun (or a planet) to a point on the Earth’s surface. EPICA. The major multi year changes are due to: o Changes in the amount of energy radiated by the sun. or one half of a precession cycle later. while a point in the middle of Russia at the same latitude might be warmer. the location in Russia would be colder.g.
Wikipedia details the problems with the Theory primarily in that the variation in solar insolation (the only energy addressed) due to the Theory is much less than what is required to see the variations in temperature. Wobble Theory 13. more energy is added and processed by the Earth. Variations in the Earth’s eccentricity. At this point. When the Earth is warming then the magnetic field also seems to increase (i.2 Arrhenius. ( Aug. The narrowing of the range can be explained by the fact that with a more circular orbit the perihelion or closest point in the orbit is actually further out than the closest point in an extreme high eccentricity orbit. in the amount of solar insolation received and in the tilt of the Earth are depicted in the following composite figure (component sources from Illinois State Univ.000 years ago. Note that the eccentricity will reach a minimum in about 20.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3. and the aphelion (furthest point) is actually further out (colder) in a more eccentric orbit. winters will be warmer. a fraction of the IR radiation that is escaping from the Earth and delay the transport.000 eccentricity cycles ago. The last time the Earth magnetic field flipped over. The Original Arrhenius paper is also included. 2009) Page 50 of 151 . The Milankovitch Effect is also discussed in Wikipedia. thus resulting in a warming of the atmosphere. because the annual eccentricity variation will be lower due to the decreased eccentricity. Adding any more GHGs will have no effect because there is no extra energy for them to absorb. was ~780. the Earth will be at its most circular orbit. Basically the theory says that the variation in the distance from the Earth to the sun changes the amount of insolation energy that comes into the Earth and so causes the variations that result in Ice Ages. web site) for the past 700Ky. or about 2 full 405. The Earth magnetic field over time is also given since it seems to also correlate with ice ages.e. What is not stated is that the theory will not apply once the air reaches energy equilibrium. At this point the entire fraction of the incoming energy that is of the specific frequency that can be absorbed by the GHGs is already being absorbed. summers will be cooler. Adding CO2 will not add warming if the Earth temperature is already at equilibrium. but the range will be narrowing down. where energy in equals energy out. and Milankovitch Theories ((Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Arrhenius’ Theory that greenhouse gases cause an increase in the Earths ground or air temperature are discussed in Wikipedia. The Energy coming into the earth will be increasing as the Earth approaches perihelion or the closest point to the sun. The amount of energy dictates the amount of the greenhouse effect that can happen. Only adding more energy can make the GHE add its extra increment due to delaying the energy transport. In summary Arrhenius Theory says that GHGs in the air absorb at specific frequencies.000 years.
( Aug.2a Glaciation.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 3. & Magnetic Field Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 51 of 151 . Milankovitch Eccentricity and Tilt.
and closer to a circular orbit where the annual average temperatures would be unchanging.5 degree tilt.e. ( Aug. for the next 50K years. (except for tilt & daily rotation) Note also that the tilting of the Earth. Wobble Theory 13. This is why all the world record high temperatures were set 100+ years ago (after we invented thermometers). The high temperatures get lower and the low temperatures get higher. I. tilt and insolation at 65 degrees N. 2009) Page 52 of 151 . Note that as the eccentricity decreases then the range of the energy coming in decreases. will speed up and spin straighter when you slap it to add energy. which is caused by the gravity effects of the sun and planets as they move above and below the Sun Earth ecliptic plane.000 years ago) going from a 24 degree tilt to a 22. ALSO require energy.2b also gives the projection for the Earth eccentricity . The Earth is currently (since about 8 to 10. Just as a toy top in a gravity field. We are getting less eccentric in the orbit.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 3.
However we can now identify this other source as gravity from the Sun and planets. could the current global warming analyses which assume that solar insolation is the sole source of energy into the Earth. NONE of which are electromagnetic energy like the solar insolation. I sure hope that most of the rest of our “common knowledge” in our scientific textbooks is of better quality that the Greenhouse effect.000 times stronger than the energy from solar insolation (& constantly changing). have just “slightly” messed up on the energy balance calculation. 2009) Page 53 of 151 . Doesn’t give you much confidence in Scientists. Wobble Theory 13. He even postulated that there was an external source of energy from out in space somewhere to make his system work. and given that the gravity on Earth from Jupiter which varies by up to 50 % every year as the separation distance goes from 4 to 6 AUs.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3. is ~20 times as large as solar insolation. and God only knows what else. Most researchers since have thought that the latter was not true.the gravity energy gets converted to radiative energy.3 Fourier’s Energy Balance and Stefan-Boltzmann Equilibrium (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Fourier’s original Energy Balance paper in 1827 (& subsequent Greenhouse effect work by Arrhenius in 1896) said that the Earth is at a TOTAL EQUILIBRIUM ENERGY BALANCE. to changed Earth potential energy (relative to the sun) as the eccentric orbital distance changes? To changed Earth stored magnetic field energy as the tilt changes and the mag filed strength changes with time? How about to the energy stored in stratospheric charged particles acquired from the Earth mag field that is changing with time? How about to stored chemical energy in the earth such as oil or coal etc. Fourier. Fourier says there is a TOTAL energy balance. Maxwell. Every science textbook from the last 20 years needs to be rewritten to expunge the incorrect information about the Greenhouse effect. Using the radiative energy balance as the total is so incomplete as to be totally worthless scientific evaluation. and magnetic fields from everywhere. then. (This also explains why Jupiter might radiate more energy out that what is absorbed from solar insolation without having to create its own energy by having a fusion reactor at its core!. and created a greenhouse effect to explain it away? Just an editorial comment but it seems to me that the older scientists such as Newton.. Sure glad I’m only a “dumb” engineer.. ( Aug. (maybe Einstein) sure seemed to have a better handle on integrating scientific world knowledge than the current discipline bound scientists and peer reviewers of today. or as phase change warmer water instead of ice? Now given that the force of gravity just from the SUN acting on the Earth is about 200.) To do a full TOTAL energy balance you have to account for what happens to ALL the energy coming in. Does the gravity energy get converted to changed Earth angular momentum depending upon orbital location?. NOT just the electromagnetic field (radiative) energy balance that is postulated to make the Greenhouse effect work.
2. +/-20degrees out of 289. This is NOT included in the Global Warming computer models. the spin or angular momentum of the Earth 3.4 The impact of GRAVITY. Gravity from the sun results in: 1. “higher up” from the sun or from the respective planets!) 4. 2009) Page 54 of 151 . friction in energy conversion processes that is observable as temperature 6. As shown in Figure 3. the circulation of winds. This is the major source of daily temperature swings on the Earth’s surface – i. below.4a.e. This is readily discussed and incorporated into the Global Warming computer codes (See IPCC reports). hydrocarbons. ocean currents and liquid core circulation currents. What causes the other 269 degrees? The second source of energy coming into the Earth is from Gravity. 5. ( Aug. Isaac Newton’s equation and Maxwell’s Entropy (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Obviously.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3. in the form of photons or energy. the Earth’s (stored) potential energy relative to the sun when it is a more eccentric part of the orbit (i. the storage of energy in complex compounds such as biomass.e. the Earth’s orbit. the energy impacting the Earth first comes from solar insolation or electromagnetic fields. Variations of gravity from the planets causes the Earth’s eccentricity Wobble Theory 13. Energy Sources to Earth. ice/steam 7.
then these sources can result in uneven impacts. The primary source of energy is obviously the Sun.4b. and depending upon the relative distance. to maximize energy transfer to Earth. wind. 6 months later the Earth is at its closest to the sun. below. then the Earth gets pulled further from the sun. Wobble Theory 13. The eccentricities appear to be such that eccentricities in the Jupiter orbit is the major cause of the counter balancing eccentricities in the orbits of the other planets. then Jupiter. but in this most eccentric condition. ( Aug. Gravity from the other planets and the moon also impacts the Earth. When Jupiter zigs. Solar. For example when Jupiter is in the half of its orbit above the ecliptic (& also when it is near the furthest distance from the sun and Earth) then there will be a larger gravity and temperature impact on the Earth northern hemisphere. even Venus when it is close to Earth. Likewise when Jupiter is below the ecliptic or has a negative latitude.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 As shown in Figure 3. then the moon (tides. which results in energy impacts to both the northern and southern hemispheres at the same time. liquid core currents). but a lower overall impact due to the larger distance. Since the moon and planetary orbits are off the Earth-Sun ecliptic plane. The gravity from these planets since it impacts various parts of the Earth differently will also result in variations in the energy input into the Earth over time. ocean currents. Gravity and Magnetic Field Equilibrium. The combined effects of gravity result in the various eccentricities of orbits of the planets. Especially if the other planets are above or below the Sun-Earth ecliptic plane. 2009) Page 55 of 151 . Saturn. the other planets zag. then most of the impact will be in the Earth Southern hemisphere. When Jupiter is closest to Earth.
The computer models violate the laws of thermodynamics. solar insolation has not increased since ~1960). A fourth source is cosmic rays. but they too can vary depending upon the density of matter in the Galaxy. I. but can under the right circumstances impact the values of the other sources of energy. planets and exiting from the Earth to space. Maxwell’s Laws of thermodynamics and entropy.e. to increase the global temperature.e. Wobble Theory 13. from the sun. also thought to be of a small magnitude. This means that in the Global Warming computer codes it is impossible to move energy from the Stratosphere to the Troposphere without adding energy or losing some energy to entropy. apply in that it is impossible to perform a process (warming/cooling/phase conversion -ice to water etc) without losing some energy to entropy.. It is like friction that loses energy to heat. then it is NOT possible for the addition of CO2 which does NOT add energy.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 A third source of energy is that transported by Magnetic Fields. Thus if the amount of energy coming into the Earth system is constant (i. 2009) Page 56 of 151 . These are generally thought to be small compared to Gravity and solar insolation. and probably will result in very long term ( multi-millions of years) impacts. ( Aug. CO2 can’t cause the very real warming.
When Jupiter and Saturn collectively are closer to the Sun (& Earth). They reach their maximum positive latitudes (North) when Jupiter and Saturn are at their aphelions. 5. but Jupiter is closer to the Earth. not measurable as temperature. (Like rolling a rock up a gravity hill. and thus will have a smaller energy impact on Earth. 4. are the angles that planets are above or below the Sun-Earth ecliptic plane. Since Jupiter’s orbit is actually 11. Wobble Theory 13. the energy is reversed.i.Planetary RESONANCES are periodic or near periodic changes in orbit caused by the various gravities.e. then the Earth eccentricity (to the Sun) increases. When Jupiter is closer to Saturn in their orbits then Saturn is pulled in closer to Jupiter and Jupiter is pulled closer to Saturn. at various times in their orbits.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3. AND in the same quadrant relative to Earth. it is furthest away from the Sun. The planet warms.5 The impact of Eccentric Planetary Orbits and Orbital Resonances (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) In summary. 6. thus causing periodic. This causes North-South variations in temperatures. In addition to the Earth TILT and precession. a. The near 60 year resonance actually has its own longer term peak every ~854 or 913 years which is also repeated. further cooling the planet. Both Jupiter and Saturn currently reach their maximum negative latitudes (of a few degrees South) when the planets are at their perihelions and closest to the sun. when a planet moves outward in the orbit. AND the repeating resonance itself has a longer term resonance as it rotates around the orbit of Earth causing the locations of the perihelion & aphelion to move. but larger force of gravity due to distance) Similarly Jupiter has a 12 year effect on the Earth’s wobbling orbit. the potential energy relative to the sun is maximized. cyclical and in this case opposite eccentricities. (relative to the Sun) b. First the force of gravity (& energy) increases and second the stored potential energy is released slowly as added velocity and friction heat. over time.425 years. in addition to the well understood annual seasonal temperature changes due to the Earth’s distance from the sun and the tilt and precession in its axis: 1.As a planet passes the furthest point away (aphelion.In addition as the planet moves further away from the sun or from another planet. Energy flows from the Sun to Earth & Jupiter. causing a near 60 year repeating pattern of gravity effects on Earth & the Sun. ( Aug. apogee). increases. but it is closest to Jupiter and Saturn (low potential energy.In ELLIPTICAL ORBITS.86 years and Saturn’s is 29. When Jupiter pulls the Earth away from the Sun (more helio-eccentric) then the sun is further away. AND if this impact has a disproportionate North South impact on Earth. to maintain the conservation of energy. then there is a reversal of energy impacting the planet. This is why planetary temperatures vary. the planet receives less energy from the decreasing force of solar gravity and from the solar insolation. Five Jupiter ~12 year orbits resonate with Two ~30 year Saturn orbits. 2009) Page 57 of 151 . then the repeating resonance is not exactly 60 years. Angles of LATITUDE. The most common resonance is the near 60 year resonance between Jupiter and Saturn. and apogees. It cools 2. or six years later.) 3.Varying planetary orbits are responsible for the changes in other planetary orbits due to gravity attractions. Half an orbit. these will dictate the distance to the Sun or another planet and its gravity impact. Jupiter and Saturn CAUSE the Earth eccentricity. the amount of potential energy relative to the other body. When Earth is at its most eccentric.
b. c. cooler summers. to just greater than e=.5a (from Wikipedia) shows generic eccentricity.1 EARTH AND PLANETARY ORBITS ARE ELLIPSES. and the sun ends up causing tides etc and the associated friction heat. ( Aug.05.0034 or near zero) The closest point is getting further away. relative to the SUN. the orbital distance on the longer axis (green) is further from the sun. Earth varies from e=. warmer winters. cause the eccentricity of orbits. For the Sun to Earth. I. (estimated to be 0. Relative to a circular orbit (red).January). the furthest point is getting closer to the sun. (see Wikipedia “orbital eccentricity” source of the figure below).000 years the Earth is becoming less eccentric – more of a red circle. so that a more elliptic orbit gets hotter summers and cooler winters. However some energy is directed towards inefficiencies. closer to the sun. and they vary over time.05) to become closer to a red almost circular orbit. primarily Jupiter and Saturn. The Earth is currently becoming less eccentric & more circular 1. but since the differences couldn’t be seen. They have an eccentricity defined as e=(a-b)/(a+b) where a & b are the shorter and longer distances on the same single long axis of the orbit. aphelion (currently July) towards the closest point. unless forces change that motion) into an ellipse. As the planet Earth goes IN from furthest point. perihelion (currently January). (Earth gets faster as it approaches the sun) Wobble Theory 13. For the next 20. and at the short end of the long axis (the perihelion. 2009) Page 58 of 151 . It is going from a green eccentric orbit (actually 0. obviously most of the gravity force and energy is directed towards changing the planetary orbit from a straight line (Newton: an object in motion will continue in motion. the amount of solar insolation energy received from the sun increases. Figure 3. not circles.e.0034 close to the red circle. a. The gravity interactions of the planets. use the green ellipse to show the differences. which is also just greater than the red circle. the force and energy of gravity (& to a lesser extent solar magnetic field energy) from the sun increases.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Sec 3. the planet’s potential energy (which does not show up as temperature) from the sun decreases as this potential energy is turned into planetary friction and kinetic energy.5.
and sun to planet to Wobble Theory 13. the planet cools during the half of the orbit as it goes from closest point (perihelion) to furthest point (aphelion) due to annual eccentricity 3. or more circular. ( Aug. i. 4. the stored potential energy of the planet relative to the sun increases.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 d. but also on the other planetary orbits and where and when we are located in those orbits (i.com/2007/11/19/wobbles-part-1/ ) shows that the insolation (& by implication the force & energy of gravity) that a more eccentric orbit receives from the sun is marginally larger than what a circular orbit would impart to the Earth over the duration of the entire orbit. the warming half of the incoming orbit would equal the cooling half of the outgoing orbit. but the conversion of potential energy to kinetic energy is also going to warm the planet. I. that depend not just on the Earth’s orbit. If the orbit is unchanging in its eccentricity then the relative changes from year to year would be unchanging. d. coming in or going out relative to the other object) Hence the Milankovitch contention that Earth eccentricity cycles dictate ice age cycles. BUT since the orbital eccentricity is constantly and irregularly changing. a.e. which is 6 months after it reaches the most eccentric point when Jupiter is at its most eccentric. Jupiter’s eccentricity dictates when the peak temperatures happen. The energy sloshes around from potential to kinetic. 2. then we have variations from year to year. a more simple circular orbit should be the most energy efficient (less energy required to go into potential energy).e. 2009) Page 59 of 151 . and c. getting warmer.e. However the contribution would be largest from the Sun when the Earth is closest on the short end of the eccentric orbit. By using annual global average temperatures we are attempting to eliminate the annual seasonal variations. Tamino in his blog (www. However. i. until in a circular orbit there would be no variation due to eccentricity. 2008) to aphelion (furthest point July 4. 2008). and thus more energy should be required to maintain an elliptical orbit (the extra energy sloshes around from potential to kinetic energy depending upon orbital mode-out or in). the planet (annual average global temperature) warms up in the half of the orbit when the planet is approaching the perihelion point (closest to sun) due to annual eccentricity Note that tilt and precession will have other effects such that while a northern winter may be getting colder from January through March.e. As an orbit becomes less eccentric.e. The net impact on the Earths temperature will depend on if the orbit is becoming more eccentric or less eccentric over time. Intuitively. and high temperatures get cooler (Earth is further from the sun at the closest point).e. In the end the flow of energy between the masses depends upon where they all are and the TIME of that location. the contribution to the temperature from the eccentricity may be moving in the opposite direction -i. the solar insolation received by the planet decreases. This however ignores the potential energy of the orbit. As Earth goes OUT from perihelion (closest point of centers on Jan 3. The more important question is WHEN? Obviously in a more eccentric orbit. the energy is also flowing from the planets causing the eccentricity as well as from the Sun.tamino.e. the force and energy of gravity from the sun decreases. It is the actual distance from point to point that dictates the distance which dictates the amount of energy transfer.wordpress. then the extremes of the orbit become less extreme. I. the planet is going to be narrowing the temperature range. b. low temperatures get warmer (Earth is closer to the sun at the furthest point). i.
through 0.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 planet etc. with perihelion at ~20. Wobble Theory 13. 60 y 30 y 12y and 1 year down to 1 day. precession of ~20KY and then cycles of lesser eccentricity such as the 913y. but the tilt cycle of 41KY.000 years BP. ~380. ~780. all provide variations.).000 years AD.0034 (almost a circle. ( Aug.0167 now. 2009) Page 60 of 151 .000 years BP (also when the magnetic field last flipped) etc. to almost 0. ~590K & ~980K years BP) as a result of gravitational attractions between the planets (mostly Jupiter). mostly in the 405KY and 100KY cycles. The eccentricity of the Earth's orbit (relative to the SUN) varies from nearly 0.058 (most elliptical~200K.
the PEAK energy transfer to Earth from Jupiter & Saturn happens when they line up near their closest points.86 (nominal 12) year orbit and its own eccentricity. When the Earth is getting closer to Jupiter.2 PLANETARY ECCENTRICITY IMPACT ON EARTH Similar processes apply to the other planets depending upon their individual orbits. Thus the variations in the orbit.000 year cycle) eccentricity variations.1880.000 year and 405. then the energy from Jupiter’s gravity on the Earth is increasing (warmer up to peaks in . hence the actual peak is just past the Jupiter perigee (shortest distance to Earth) & well before the Saturn perigee. i. 1999. reaches a perihelion (closest to the sun) and a perigee (closest to Earth) at different times and with different forces of gravity (& energy) as applied to the Earth. through the 60 year sub-eccentricity. ( Aug. and the 854-913-973 eccentricity orbit AND continuing on to the longer term (unknown to me. it is the sum of gravitational energy and solar insolation energy and magnetic field energy. 2057…). In the case of the sun-earth annual orbit. This is NEAR the minimum distance from Jupiter.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3.5. but Saturn influences it a little. Jupiter with it’s 11. less eccentric or less potential energy between the two. from the nominal 12 year orbit. In the case of Jupiter’s influence on Earth it is only gravitational energy and the smaller magnetic field energy. and latitude or angle above or below the ecliptic plane. BUT the same logic applies. BUT. Figure 35b Orbits Eccentricity and Latitude Angles In this orbital eccentricity.probably a 41. 1940.e. This also happens when both planets are on Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 61 of 151 .
Also as the Earth passes the apogee furthest point. It is done by NASA probes all the time. the little dogs zag. In theory they should balance. If the Moon were also there this would really maximize the planetary gravity impacts.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 the negative latitude side below the Sun Earth ecliptic plane. i. the multi-annual cycles (405. the net potential energy increases as energy is taken out of the planet and stored as potential energy. more energy is added to the Earth system on the move from most eccentric to least eccentric location – i. The Earth eccentricity currently 0. the gravitational energy that was going into the Earth-Sun potential energy. & then swings by with an energy boost to get further out faster. getting more circular.0034. In addition as the Earth becomes more eccentric. Wobble Theory 13. the Earth also increases the amount of energy that is “stored” as potential energy relative to the sun. which is typically observed in the ice age curves of temperature. warming.e. not measurable as temperature. This will correspond to the minimum difference between high and low temperatures. 41000 year tilt cycle) change in eccentricity involves two phases. When the big dog zigs.000 year cycle. When the eccentricity is going from less eccentric to more eccentric energy is being added in smaller increments to the earth system. As with the annual Earth eccentricity.000 years according to most calculations. Thus ice ages bottom at their coldest when the Earth is at its most eccentric. It will reach its least eccentric point in about 20.0167 is approaching 0.Jupiter causes all the other eccentricities and energy is conserved.e.. with less energy coming in the Earth cools. While Earth and most other planets orbits are currently getting less eccentric on a multi-year basis.i. the orbit of Jupiter is getting more eccentric relative to the sun. The satellite dives towards the larger object picking up energy and speed. is now being measured more as heat as the potential energy is converted to kinetic energy (planetary motion and more friction and hence measurable heat). Similarly as the Earth passes the perigee (nearest) point(s) the net distance begins to increase. 100. ( Aug. An analogous situation is a flyby of the sun or planet by a satellite or rocket (or comet or asteroid etc). The Earth cools. The temperature will rise faster than it cooled down.e. 2009) Page 62 of 151 .000 year cycle. When becoming less eccentric. Potential energy does not show up as temperature.
4.858 years or about 12 years. 11. We get a just less than 60 year cycle when Jupiter and Saturn and Earth (& the moon) end up being in about the same place (they line up to maximize the forces and energy. The following Figure 3. ( Aug. but the 2nd 3rd … cycles will also differ slightly from the previous ones. I. 2009) Page 63 of 151 .5. is that the Earth orbit duration (365.425 years or about 30 years) do NOT synchronize or mesh or RESONATE nicely or exactly. or 5x12y=2x30y=60 year resonance.excluding the sun) at the same time.00 years) and the Jupiter orbit (4331 days.3 ORBITAL RESONANCES Another observation on these orbital cycles.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 3.e. 29. and generate about the same temperature (at least from these two major sources).) Wobble Theory 13.) and the Saturn orbit (10747 days. 4 if you count the moon) Resonance is the Jupiter/Saturn 5:2 .1 for an explanation of the PTTI. 1.5. What this does is first create the just under 60 year cycle.Peak Temperature Timing Indicator. The nearest Coincidence (3 planets in approximately a straight line. (see Ch.5c of where planets are during different parts of the orbit attempts to put this in visual terms.23 days.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Now just to complicate matters even further. the Jupiter component of the energy is decreasing) and then in the 2nd half of the 900+ years the Earth is getting closer to Jupiter (i. 913years = 77. 2009) Page 64 of 151 . and then immediately after the apogee point the energy transferred between the two increases MUCH FASTER because now you have not just the gravitational exchange energy (which has reversed but is about the same magnitude but increasing slightly as the planets get closer). ( Aug.e. It warms for about 450 years then cools or warms less for 450 years) before it returns to the exact level that it was at when the two planets and Earth lined up perfectly (t=0 in the figure). then the energy to the earth is first decreasing slowly as the increasing distance.06 Saturn orbits) . gaining more energy) IN THE SAME MANNER as the EARTH gains or loses energy due to its elliptical orbit around the Sun. and why you can get temperatures increasing faster than they decrease.028 Saturn orbits) or 973 years (82. with the ~60 (or sometimes 84 year) sub resonances Each cycle is not symmetric. Also note that when the Earth and one other planet approach the apogee point between the two. This is WHY temperatures appear to change direction very quickly at apogee points. ice age cycles) Wobble Theory 13.g.e. the orbits of Jupiter.00 Jupiter orbits and 31. Thus resulting in the actual magnitude of the energy going through an approximate ~900 year cycle.e. During this 900+ year coincidence cycle.05 Jupiter orbits and 33. So the distance (& energy) also changes with time. The Elliptic Orbital Resonance for Jupiter and Saturn is either 854yr 913 years or 973 (i. Saturn and Earth are ALL elliptical and changing with time. but ALSO the change of increasing potential energy (relative to the two planets & not measurable as temperature) reverses to being converted to kinetic energy (& more friction or more heat). (e. and relative potential energy reaches its maximum. This also applies to Saturn. you get Jupiter moving further away in the elliptical chart of the distance (i.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 CHAPTER 4 Identifying the Global Warming causes from 1850 to 2010 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) We begin with the identification that in addition to the Solar Insolation used as the SOLE energy source in the Global Computer Models adopted by IPCC. 2009) Page 65 of 151 .4 Solar insolation and solar gravity will be relatively constant and depend only upon the distance from the Sun to the Earth. The distance impact is the basis for the well known Milankovitch Theory for insolation Figure 4a . Wobble Theory 13. Components of FORCE of Gravity on Earth from 1850 through 2050. shows the relative magnitudes of these sources. ( Aug. gravity and to a lesser extent magnetic fields and cosmic rays as depicted in Section 3. sunspots). and any variation in the production (e. Magnetic fields and cosmic rays also add energy but these are currently thought to be smaller than the Gravity effects. and so ignored within the shorter time frames (<1000 years).g. 1850 was chosen because that is when the Hadley temperature measurement data starts. These are. there are several other sources of energy input into the Earth.
At times the energy from Venus is similar to Jupiter at its low range Venus varies in distance (& hence gravity and energy) from 0. Some goes into causing tides and winds and frictional forces (heat) in the ocean and air. (PV=nRT) hence higher temperatures closer to the core. The moon energy is 1000 times larger.3 AU to 1. Detailed Observations from Figure 4.The Earth is actually in an energy balance. and the force and energy from lunar gravity would also be long term decreasing. The changes in the force and energy from Solar gravity dwarf the energy from solar insolation. 2009) Page 66 of 151 . Hence you get major semi-cyclical changes or WOBBLES in the amount of energy hitting the Earth over time.its just that what is RADIATED out as detected by the satellites is NOT the complete measure of the energy transfer out.3 Sources of Gravity Energy on Earth. and in the liquid core. Gravity changes in proportion to distance squared just like solar insolation. as well as a 60 year resonance cycle with Jupiter since every alternate Saturn orbit is either more or less eccentric. 41Ky..000 larger than Jupiter. You need to add all these contributions (including solar insolation) up at all times.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS: The energy from the sun’s gravity is 200. (There is no nuclear power plant down there. weather (wind power) etc. (see 4 above) but most of it goes into making the earths trajectory an ellipse instead of a straight line. The energy from Solar gravity is changing with time as the Earth’s orbit becomes less eccentric. The energy contribution from Saturn is less than 10% that from Jupiter. BUT applied to gravity also. Jupiter is 20 times larger and varies with a ~12 year cycle due to Jupiter’s orbit. Energy from Solar and Lunar gravity approximately average out over a year or even over a century.i. some goes into spin (angular momentum of Earth shells. but radioactive decay of unstable isotopes does add a relatively constant but decreasing heat also). Energy from Lunar Gravity is 3 orders of magnitude larger than Solar insolation.7 day (~7+ month) orbit.000 times as large as the energy from Solar Insolation. Only longer term Earthly Milankovitch length cycles (400Ky. 100Ky.7 AU hence varying wildly in the course of its 224. ocean currents…) and maintaining the magnetic field and of course friction in all of these. but varies very frequently so that over a year it tends to mostly cancel out. what comes in equals what goes out. Saturn has its own 30 year orbital cycle. but most of it goes into making the moons trajectory an ellipse.it is missing gravity and magnetic fields. cooler closer to space. This explains why the satellite calculations of the Earth energy balance can differ from the calculated input from the solar insolation alone. except for the very long term since the moon is moving 3+ centimeters further away each year. The temperature varies with density. Some (this can be calculated by some enterprising grad student!) goes into tides (tidal power) & evaporation/rain (hydro power). thus the programs can not possibly be valid since they are incomplete and ignore the largest sources of incoming energy or heat.e.: Energy from Solar gravity is 200. This is one source of the energy for the mechanism to maintain the Earth’s CORE TEMPERATURE. ( Aug. and ~10^4 or 10. the traditional Milankovitch insolation eccentricity argument. and the times when both the Earth & Venus orbit resonate to result in peak gravity energy interactions.000 times larger than the annual average solar insolation. These forces and energy from gravity are ignored in the Global Warming computer programs. hence Milankovitch effects timing will correlate to variations in solar insolation from the dominant source of gravity (the sun). 20Ky… Wobble Theory 13.
the Jupiter orbit peaks in a minimum distance from Earth. the tilt straightens up -just like hitting a spinning top). but it is short lived due to the fast Venus orbit. A plot of Jupiter’s orbit shows a definite 60 years sub-cycle – WHICH just happens to results in 60 years cycles of the force of gravity acting on Earth and causing 60 years cycles in the Earth temperature. When the Earth begins the outward bound leg of the orbits (i. 2009) Page 67 of 151 .John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 cycles) will cause significant Solar gravity variations over time. Energy from Jupiter gravity is ~20 times larger than solar insolation. The orbits of Jupiter . Earth and Saturn are becoming less eccentric. which results in more CO2 production.000yr) cycle which is supposedly caused by planetary interactionsJupiter being the biggest interactor.it varies wildly due to the variation is distance between Earth & Venus e. Every sixty years. If the orbits start at the same time.) & earth is going in towards the sun (less eccentric warming as potential energy gets converted to temperature). according to www. Several factors influence the Jupiter and Saturn impacts on gravity forces and energy. thus maximizing the Jupiter force of gravity on Earth. Hence CO2 cycles can also correlate. but since CO2 does NOT add or create energy it can NOT cause warming.e. In Wobble Theory 13. next to each other (0. The peak from Venus can at times be larger than the gravity contribution from Jupiter. long term ice ages. AND the increase in CO2 caused by man fails to cause an increase in temperature. ( Aug. Venus gravity is a surprise. This occurs with the Jupiter/Saturn 5:2 resonance. thus adding energy wobbles to the dominant solar gravity. In addition since the changes are very small over a single year the effect of changes are difficult to see on short term charts. not just correlate with. which then causes more plant growth and death. You can also speculate that the increase in gravity energy causes the increase in temperature.g. more eccentric) then the Earth energy will also migrate into increased velocity relative to the sun (Kepler’s Law).e. show Jupiter currently getting more eccentric. it varies with perigees (shortest distance to Earth) and apogees (largest distance to Earth) The Saturn gravity is smaller. All three also have longer term eccentricity cycles (e. 5 Jupiter orbits (5 x 12yrs=60years) coincide with 2 Saturn orbits (2x30=60years). charts of eccentricity vs time.3 AU apart) or on opposite sides of the sun (1. There is an 800 year delay in CO2 rises after the end of the last ice age. and as global warming. This identifies the missing source of energy to justify why Milankovitch cycles (of gravity) cause. There are probably longer term Jupiter & Saturn variations. Gravity or energy peaks occur whenever several planets minimize their collective distances from Earth. then after the first Saturn orbit (30 years) Jupiter will have completed 2. Earth is in the process of getting a smaller energy boost as it does a series of progressively further away near sun slingshot fly-bys. Saturn and Earth are all eccentric within a single orbit. but Venus. resulting in the forces of gravity modifying the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. i. Also a long term eccentricity chart for Earth & Venus shows correlations for up to 50 million years. The energy boost is stored as increased angular momentum (spin) as decreased tilt (-as energy is added. It was noted that in the Alcyone software.5 orbits and be on the opposite side of the sun.7 AU apart).org. but still larger than insolation. like Earth’s 100Kyr Milankovitch eccentricity) There are a Jupiter and Saturn ~1000 year eccentricity change in the literature (google it!). hence the CO2/warming correlation (but not cause & it breaks down when man burns coal & oil to add CO2).g.. No doubt Jupiter oscillates one way (zigs) while the others oscillate the other (zags). and hence when averaged over a full orbit the energy contribution from Venus is much less than that from Jupiter. comparable to the Earth’s obliquity/tilt (41. It is assumed that Jupiter and the Sun act as the dominant forces and we are currently in the phase where Jupiter is going out (more eccentric.realclimate.
Note that when the Earth is at it’s aphelion (furthest from the sun). either in time or location. Energy from Venus Gravity (also larger than solar insolation and Jupiter gravity at times) peaks on a short 20 month cycle (whenever the Earth & Venus are closest together in their orbits ( Venus aphelion and Earth perihelion) . and Jupiter and Saturn are at perihelion (closest to sun) or perigee (closest to earth). The solar increases in gravity tend to minimize the planetary forces. The global computer models of the atmosphere & ocean do not even treat half of the forms that energy and heat is available in the earth. The varying forces of gravity from the other planets add wobbles or wiggles to the orbit. nothing lines up nicely. Another fortunate factor is that when the Earth is at perihelion (closest to the sun) it is further away from Jupiter and Saturn. 2009) Page 68 of 151 . but it is highly likely that conversion from gravity potential energy to kinetic energy is very common. as stored magnetic field energy. a pendulum swinging. The Energy stored in the Earth can be as gravitational potential energy with respect to the sun and each planet AND the moon (tidal energy). ( Aug. as stored thermal energy/temperature (ground air temps/volcanoes).g.e. or earth’s changing orbit. and negative energy as ice etc). positive energy as steam or water vapor. Saturn and Earth perihelions are in the same sector of space (~12o’clock in the orbitSee figure 11-2) but Jupiter is almost ¼ circle away (~2 o’clock+) so they can not coincide (until time rotates them around). or act oppositely. natural gas. A similar occurrence was for the 1878 peak. each other and the earth. adding short term (under 5 year) “noise” to the Earthly temperature cycles. The planets act like separate little pendulums impacting the sun. but the maximum (Jupiter perigee. Unfortunately. carbohydrates and fats. just like a pendulum. and a Saturn perigee. which is just one manifestation of the total energy. Saturn perigee. complex sugars. etc etc. Wobble Theory 13.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 general within the Earth system energy can migrate from potential gravity energy to kinetic energy (which causes friction and heat). Earth aphelion) will occur within the 3 years between a Jupiter perigee. The mechanics of how and when it goes from each form is very complicated. as kinetic energy (increased velocity at furthest distance apohelions) or as stored angular momentum (spin) and as stored tilt energy. you can maximize the force and energy from the Jupiter/Saturn forces of gravity. as stored chemical energy (oil. to the total energy and consequently to the Earth temperature. The forces of gravity make the earth energy oscillate like a pendulum over time. A note on Energy flows: The earth acts like a pendulum attached to the sun by a gravity string. A Venus cycle peaked in 1998 nearly on top of Jupiter & Saturn peaks in their cycles causing the hottest year data point.
– the increasing base trendline which is attributable to the Milankovitch effects of not just insolation but also the larger gravity. A simple observation of the Hadley Temperature curve and the 3 year moving average identifies FOUR major components to the temperature identified in the Gravity chart as 1.At planetary perigee & apogee points the CHANGE in the force of gravity will reverse directions and cause a change of directions in the energy or temperature curves (after accounting for inertia). an approximate 12 year effect 3. ( Aug.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4b: COMPARE Venus.Sun/Earth eccentricity . Jupiter and Saturn gravity impact on EARTH to 3 year averaged monthly Hadley Earth Temperatures from 1850 to 2007.Saturn gravity.Venus gravity a short term effect which basically contributes temperature “noise”. 2009) Page 69 of 151 . every change in the direction in the Earthly temperature correlates to a change in the energy supplied by the force of gravity from the planets. (It’s actually a 3 year average that is mislabeled on the chart) THE CURVES MATCH!!!(more or less) Every major change in the direction of increase or decrease in the Earth Temperature on the 3yr average curve coincides with Jupiter or Saturn reaching a perigee or apogee point!. The question now becomes what causes how much of each change. 2. In other words. an approximate 30 year effect which combines with Jupiter to result in a ~60 year RESONANCE effect and 4.a longer term effect. Wobble Theory 13.Jupiter gravity.
61yr) Venus orbit.i. and 1998/2003 . Logically look for a third 60 year temperature cycle to follow!! We are already in a 30 year cooling cycle (decreasing Jupiter & Saturn gravity & increasing Earth potential energy relative to Jupiter and Saturn) due to bottom in ~2028 and then peak in about 2058 ( warmer than 1998??) caused by Jupiter and Saturn.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 The details of each of these 4 components are discussed in the following sections for each planet. friction from tidal changes) but they also tend to average out over a yearly cycle and variations are difficult to observe on short term charts. (see discussion below) Short 20 month gravity blips (~3 Venus orbits catching up to a slower earth) which combine into temperature ”noise” cycles caused by Venus‘s approach to the Earth.g.e. 1879 etc. shows most of the 12 year Jupiter orbit cycles which identify the changes at each Jupiter perigee & apogee point. Note that the 11.e. ( Aug. 1944. 1938. then the balloon’s position/location does not change due to the forces which cancel out. The effects from Mars. is it possible that gravity/temperature changes make pitchers more prone to errors and hence we get more home runs? Do Japanese home run records also correspond with temperature peaks? Eliminating the Venus “noise” by using a 3 year temperature average. given the 224day (7. the Jupiter/Saturn 5:2 resonance yielding a 60 year earthly temperature cycle. BUT due to conservation of energy the energy provided by the forces does NOT cancel out. McGuire hit 70 and Bonds hit 73. UNLESS the longer term base cycle changes direction. BUT if you continue to increase the force and energy of each hand then the balloon will eventually pop. in a manner similar to the moon (& sun) causing tides in the ocean. 1998. Uranus. solar insolation etc are smaller.g. A coincidence or does the decreased force of gravity (sun minus Venus vs earth’s gravity) and higher temperature.. Note the analogy: If you put a balloon between your hands and apply equal & opposite forces by squeezing the balloon. 1940. . Roger Maris hit 61. lower air density from Venus make a baseball carry further? Or another conjecture. but still there! The gravity effects from the Sun and moon.g. tilt and precession will still have effects not accounted for by shorter term gravity and distance variations. due to the increase of energy provided to the balloon.A longer moving average on the temperature curve will eliminate both the Venus and Jupiter influences to show the 60+ year cyclicality with temp peaks in 1880.86 year (nominal 12) Jupiter orbit just happens to be very close to the nominal 11 year sunspot cycle. Forces of gravity can cancel when applied to movement in a direction.36 month or 0. lending credence to the theory that all the planets gravity acting on the Sun’s gases causes sunspots. are larger & in reality they do exist ( e. E. as well as 60 year Jupiter eccentricity cycles). since gravity changes during a full moon bring out eccentrics. Sharp peaks correspond to Venus perigees. Note however that solar effects do not average out. These are then the cause of some/most? of the long term (>100yrs) rising base trendline in the temperature curve. Wobble Theory 13. longer term Earthly changes in eccentricity. An interesting point is that many temperature peaks correspond to the years when Babe Ruth hit the then record 54 and 60 home runs in the US Baseball contests. A summary is provided below. Whenever the Jupiter gravity is increasing then the Earth Temperature is increasing. 2009) Page 70 of 151 .
PLUS the warming from short term decreased Jupiter eccentricity. the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino/La Nina oscillation. It will take a detailed 3 dimensional analysis of distance to determine exactly which gravity source is providing how much energy at what time. so there are direct changes to these gravity forces that will correlate to precession cycles. thus storing less potential energy). Apparently the influence of the Sun and moon mostly causes the Earth precession. In general it is assumed that since Venus is inside the Earth orbit. Wobble Theory 13. and warming associated with decreasing tilt. nor location specific variations. A special note on temperature data. The cause of this trend should be a combination of long term Earth Milankovitch type eccentricity cycles (warming from decreased eccentricity. In addition to the gravity forces. 2009) Page 71 of 151 . However when it comes to North south variations the varying angle of latitude for Venus may have some significant impacts.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 A longer term base increase in temperature is identified by a temperature “base trendline” below the 1910 & 1970 bottoms. there will be variations in solar insolation which will have some smaller effect which can NOT be completely ignored. and due to the sharp changes it will definitely be responsible for much of the noise in monthly temperature variations. Investigations during this study have shown that there are variations that can persist for years or months (both Jupiter and Saturn can persist at latitude angles (above or below the Sun Earth ecliptic plane) for years resulting in Earthly variations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. As such it does not show shorter term spikes and anomalies (such as caused by Venus). then any gross (planet wide) variations will be dwarfed by the Sun. ( Aug. All of which add up to the base temperature which WILL also vary with longer time cycles.Earth is closer to the sun. The Hadley data used in this study is the monthly worldwide average value. as well as weather related variations that may only last for days or seasons.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.1 Sun/Earth/Moon distance variations (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Figure 4.1a Sun/Earth Distance Variations
Figure 4.1b (below) Sun Earth Distance 1940-2025, shows a more detailed day by day chart of the Earth’s orbit shows MUCH more complexity in the eccentricity. The first chart shows the extremes of the orbit at the longest distances from the sun. (aphelions.) The second chart shows the extremes at the perihelions (closest distances to the sun) as the Earth bounces back & forth between the two charts. In reality what you see here is a SINGLE line which traces the Earth’s orbit for 1200 years (with a big chunk taken out of the middle of the graph in order to show the variations at the extreme points) The eccentricity varies widely year by year. Even on this 80 year time span, the trend towards less eccentricity is noticeable (sloped dotted lines). The nominal 11 through 13 year wobbles seem to be related to Jupiter’s 12yr orbit which would be the largest gravity influences after the sun & moon. There is probably also a nominal 60 year cycle (look at the “tooth bite marks” just above the red line in the chart above) related to the resonances of Jupiter and Saturn. The red/blue alternating arrows starting about 1972 correspond with the jagged temperature rise from 1972 thru 1998
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.1c shows the Moon’s distance over a 1200 year time span. There does not appear to be any noticeable change in eccentricity, nor any major wobbles (30 to 100 years) except for variations under 5 years.
The forces from the moon to Earth seem to be relatively stable over this 1000 year time frame. No longer term eccentricity is detected, although it is known that the moon retreats from the Earth by ~3.5 cm each year, resulting in a decreasing force over longer time periods. While there are 4 and 30 year wobbles the magnitude of about 2% seems to be relatively minor. The multiannual influence of the Moon on temperature appears to be minimal. However the monthly impact can be seen by the appearance of “crazies” on the streets when ever the full moon appears. At a full moon, the gravity force (& energy) on Earth is minimized since the gravity from the moon is opposite that from the sun. The north south impact of lunar gravity will depend upon the lunar orbit. In general it is expected that over a years time these should average out, but there certainly are seasonal variations that will have an impact on the temperature at various Earth locations. These are probably already incorporated into weather forecasts.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.1d shows the Moon Forces on Earth from 1940 through 2020. Note that since this is monthly data, then a daily data based chart would show more detailed and probably more extreme variations.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.2 Jupiter/Earth distance variations (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Figure 4.2a Jupiter Earth Distances. The DISTANCE between Jupiter and the Earth as a function of time is presented in several formats to show first how the data was derived, and what it means. Figure 4.2a, is a graph of the distance between Jupiter and the Earth for the 20 years from 1680 through 1710. The weekly data points (dots on the line) were downloaded from the Alcyone ephemeris program to MS-Excel. And plotted. This chart has 20 years on the x-axis and about 4 AU ( i.e. 4 times 93,000,000 miles, or 4 times 149,000,000 km on the y axis.) Note that the force of gravity acting as an inverse square on earth from Jupiter varies due to the distance changing from 4 AU to 6.5 AU all in the matter of six years. This change is NOT trivial, especially given that the forces from Jupiter are greater than the solar insolation.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.2b, Jupiter earth distance from 1600-2200, is the exact same data, i.e. one continuous orbit plot for 600 years, except that we have now zoomed out on the x-axis to cover 600 years, AND we have zoomed in on the y-axis to just show the outer extremes (i.e. furthest distances or apogees that Jupiter gets from Earth.
Note that I chose the time around 1700 for a reason. This is when the distance changes direction. Up until 1696 Jupiter was getting more eccentric ( orbit expanding, energy going into potential energy,- cooling input to Earth). From 1696 thru about 2224, the orbit is getting less eccentric (or actually flat- with a constant eccentricity) indicating that Jupiter is NO LONGER providing a cooling input (less gravity potential energy input) to Earth. This is ALSO when the Earth temperature began to increase significantly faster than before this time frame. (i.e. when the current warming trend began) See GISP temp data fig 1a & 1b etc Note that the “lines” in this chart (actually the apogee extents of each 12 year orbit) first are ~12 years apart and second have an irregular sub-eccentricity that is 5 (60yrs), 6 (72yrs), 7 (84 yrs) or 8 (96yrs) orbits long. This adds irregularity to the impacts of the gravity from Jupiter (& probably also to sunspots).
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.2c is the SAME Jupiter distance to Earth but now for a 5200 year time period (3000BC- the limit of the Alcyone ephemeris program that generated the data, to 2200 AD,) and the chart is made up of 3 pieces stitched together, because Excel can’t show more than 65000 data points on a graph and because you can’t see the apogee (furthest extent at 6.5 AU) of the orbit AND the perigee (nearest point to Earth at ~4AU) all on the same chart. Needless to say we are looking at a SINGLE blue line that traces the orbit of Jupiter for 5000 years. The x-axis increments are 100 years, top graph from 400BC to 2100AD, the last two (short numbers) are 2000 and 2100 (just like the previous chart) The red line in the top right corner is the same flat redline on the previous chart.
Note 1. The short redlines, indicate cooling (more eccentric expanding out, energy goes from heat to stored potential energy) or warming/neutral (redlines are flat or contracting in/warming) less eccentric time periods. Note that when the first downward to flat line in the top graph is trending IN (less eccentric) the comparable line exactly below it is ALSO trending in – i.e. the orbit is getting smaller- less eccentric, less potential energy stored.)
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.2d is a 6000 year chart of the Jupiter to SUN (not Earth) distance. It is similar to the previous Jupiter to Earth distance chart, but “cleaner” since it eliminates the complexities introduced by the Earth’s orbit distance variation. First note that the eccentricity is getting larger. Jupiter is causing more extreme reactions from the other planets. The energy of Jupiter relative to the sun is going into potential energy. Jupiter is getting colder at its most extreme. This more extreme eccentricity phase is NOT permanent. There is a longer term eccentricity cycle (maybe 41KY or longer?- the opposite or what causes the decreasing Earth eccentricity) that governs it. This chart was originally used to identify the 913 or 973 year Jupiter eccentricity sub-cycles (above). The max and min points were identified (actually “estimated” since it is difficult to figure where one cycle ends and another begins) and the years between were counted, to, on average, get 913 (+/-60) years from the dates identified on the chart. More accurate dates could be determined by doing a daily or minute by minute chart of the orbit & identifying the actual turn/direction reversal points (see Saturn later). The turn points may also be slightly different on a Jupiter Earth chart which is what should be more properly used for Earth evaluations. I have these- they are just more sloppy and harder to see the turn points.
The 913 year cycles of eccentricity can readily be seen. Note that warming half & cooling half of each cycle is approximately 450+years at this time. (it changes with time, because the perihelion (nearest points) and apogee points change with time as they rotate around the orbit.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Note that the longer term eccentricity cycle (red lines at the bottom) are changing slope and becoming less eccentric, indicating a slowing down of the cooling influence of Jupiter.- see the discussion of the similar Saturn eccentricity lines in the next section. To get this change of slope we must be in the latter half of the next larger Jupiter eccentricity sub-cycle (41,000 years?? 70,000 years??). Note 2: The Jupiter transition points (dates are easily +/- 60 years since they are visually taken from the graph- a thorough evaluation of hourly data at each transition point could probably identify exactly when the transition takes place). They roughly are : ?-2800BC cooling (Alcyone ephemeris program only goes back to 3000BC) 2800BC -2390BC warming cycle 2390BC-1950BC cooling cycle 1950BC-1489BC warming 1489BC-1030BC cooling 1030BC-588BC warming 588BC-138BC cooling 138BC- 350AD – less eccentric- warming – Roman Empire expansion 350 to 906AD – more eccentric – cooling - Dark ages 906-1311/70 – less eccentric – warming – Viking expansion 1311/70-1762 (or 1696) – more eccentric- cooling- little ice age 1762-2224 – flat or less eccentric-warming- NOW, modern science era 2224-~2700 – more eccentric –cooling… This is the Jupiter contribution to warming/cooling cycles. To this must be added the Saturn contribution which is smaller (`~10%), the Venus contribution which is usually much smaller except for very short periods when the Jupiter contribution is low and Venus is high (i.e. temperature noise), AND the Earth contribution from the SUN & potential energy, which is constantly increasing since ~10000BC (except for short <10 year variations) as the Earth continues in its less eccentric orbit for the next 20,000+ years.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.3 Saturn/Earth distance variations (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures)
Figure 4.3a is a 6000year chart of the Distance from Saturn to the Sun.
First obviously, Saturn is getting less eccentric as Jupiter is getting more eccentric. Note that the 60 year eccentricity sub-cycle (separation between any two “lines”), becomes a 30 year sub-cycle in the first half of each 913 yr warming cycle. (e.g. 1500-1750, and 2400-2650 etc). Note that the warming part (less eccentric) of each 913/973 year cycle is longer (~600+ yrs) than the cooling part (250-300 years), but this changes with time. This creates a relative movement of the resonance interaction between the Jupiter 913/973 year cycle and the Saturn 913/973 year eccentricity cycle. (see PTTI discussion below and also in the following Saturn resonance discussion) Note that the longer term eccentricity (black lines at bottom) are already changing direction. I.e. There is an even longer term cycle or resonance out there somewhere. Could it be, say, 41,000 years long- i.e. the energy source that causes the Earth’s tilt cycle?- we know it’s a planetary source, not solar, because it impacts off–ecliptic angles (i.e. tilt). And since the change in slope of these lines indicates that the eccentricity is becoming less eccentric (like Earth) then we are probably in the first half of the longer term cycle – just like the curves above but on a time scale
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 that is 40 times longer?? Like, maybe, if the Earth cooling half of the 41K yr cycle started in ~10,000BC or 6200BC, 8200yBP, and were to end in 12,300AD?? Obviously the warming half (20KY+) of the tilt cycle corresponded with the total global warming (20KY+) at the end of the ice age. Now what if we combine the Earth tilt cycle turning cooler , along with a similar Jupiter reversal (remember Jupiter eccentricity is the tilt cause and opposite of Earth & the other planets) , AND the Earth eccentricity reversing in about 20,000 years, and have we just predicted a major big time cooling such as what would happen as the Earth gets into its next 100K cycle into the next ice age (which should be some 62,000 years (1.5x 41,000 year cycles) after that – i.e. about 87,000 years from now? Nice to speculate- and probably can be calculated with a better more accurate addition of the gravity forces from the various sources!!! Such a calculation would add more evidence of the validity of this WOBBLE THEORY. Note 2 The approximate dates (+/- 60 yrs- also could be identified exactly by a finer look at the orbit) for the changes in the Saturn 913/973 sub-cycles are 2742BC-2288BC Saturn cooling input 2288BC-1780BC warming 1780BC-1386BC cooling 1386BC-798BC warming 798BC-472BC cooling 472BC-117AD warming Roman expansion 117AD-440 cooling 440-1080AD warming Vikings 1180-1365 cooling 1365-2000 warming scientific age 2000- 2328 cooling
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.3b below shows the Saturn to Earth distance, but at the Apogees (furthest distance from Earth) from 1600 through 2200. The lower part (perigees) is on the next page.
Note that up until ~2000 (i.e. NINE years ago) the curve had been in decreasing eccentricity (warming mode). After 2000 it transitions to a cooling (increasing eccentricity, potential energy being stored) mode. The years 1998 to 2003 were a VERY CRITICAL transition point for the Saturn input to the Earth warming cycle. The Saturn input went from warming to cooling for the next few hundred years. In theory the rapid warming since 1700 should slow down if not stop or pause for a few hundred years, before continuing to warm for another 450 years or so. The total warming or cooling direction at that point is debatable with this level of data. We may continue in the same flat channel seen for the last 10,000 years in GISP2 & Vostok, (Imbrie theory) or we may have already started into a longer term cooling (ice age approach) as seen from 400,000BP to 350,000BP in GISP2. (Berger 78 theory) Note however that the 2058 year input is only just slightly less than the 1998/2003 input so it is feasible that the 2058 temperature might actually be similar to the 1998 peak (i.e. putting us on a temperature shoulder just like we were on a shoulder from 1999 through 2007), especially since the Earth/Sun input has been getting slightly warmer. BUT after that the Saturn input will be getting smaller resulting in several hundred years of cooling input.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.3c shows the perigees of the same Saturn orbit.
Jupiter Saturn Resonance Effect Note the alternating of the distances to Earth every 30 years or Saturn orbit. This is due to the location of Jupiter at the time. When Saturn is at its perigee AND Jupiter is on the same side of the Sun, then the Jupiter gravity draws Saturn into a closer orbit (hence alternating long spikes in this chart) When 30 years later, Saturn is again at its perigee, this time Jupiter is on the other side of the Sun (two and a half 12 year orbits in 30 years), hence it has a smaller gravity effect on the Saturn orbit, which naturally goes further out (short alternating spikes on the 2nd chart) This is the 5:2 resonance effect of the Jupiter Saturn orbits. Since the Saturn orbit varies so much, then the Saturn gravity effect on EARTH also varies significantly. Also note that the 60 year Saturn differences are less severe during the early time in the 900 year cycle- e.g. see how the 1620, 1650 and 1680 bottoms above are very close whereas the 60 year cycles in 1880, 1940 and 1998, 2058 are very prominent. In addition, there is a Saturn gravity effect on the Jupiter orbit.- same as above but reversed. This accounts for why there is a nominal 60 year sub-eccentricity cycle in the Jupiter orbit, but there are other effects that modify the Jupiter orbit so that the 60 years can be 72, 84 or even 96 years. Jupiter is not very regular. HOWEVER since an 11.858 year Jupiter orbit, does NOT resonate exactly with a 29.425 year Saturn orbit, there is a rotation of the resonance point around the Earth orbit, such that we get the nominal 854/913 year eccentricity when both planets line up (almost) exactly at their peak resonance. (see Ch 3.5 for the explanation) This of course ALSO requires that Earth be in the exact same location relative to the other two planets (i.e. one point zero exact year orbit). Wobble Theory 13, ( Aug, 2009) Page 84 of 151
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.4 Venus/Earth distance variations (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Figure 4.4a shows the distance from Venus to Earth from 1600AD to 2200 AD.
NOTE that Venus is NOT changing eccentricity, it just moves closer & further away from Earth. Note that longer term there appears to be no significant variation or long term eccentricity, between the two. It is known that both Earth and Venus have long term variations in eccentricity relative to the Sun. However it appears that they both seem to follow a similar eccentricity path Wobble Theory 13, ( Aug, 2009) Page 85 of 151
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 relative to each other. This can also be seen on a multi-million year chart of eccentricity shown in Sec 1, Where all of the small inner planets seems to follow a similar path primarily dictated by the gravity attractions of Jupiter and Saturn which cause the eccentricity. In the case of Venus temperature impact there are 240 year cycles (NOT eccentricity changes) where Venus is closer to Earth. There may be no observable net impact on the temperature on Earth, when averaged over the 8 year cycles, but only a short term spike for a few months during the closest approach- e.g. the 1998 point that caused the maximum Earth temperature when combined with high values from both Jupiter and Saturn. The 240 year cycles themselves bottomed in 1970 and have provided a small warming impact for 120 years when it will turn unto a small cooling impact in ~2090. There is also an ~8 year cycle, which resonates into two Jupiter/Venus 60 year cycles, which may account for some shorter term variances, but since Venus is always inside the Earths orbit. This causes short term complications – i.e. temperature noise, because first the Venus gravity impacts are always inside the Earth’s orbit, and second the times when Venus impacts are significant compared to Jupiter are relatively brief (some 2-3 months out of every 2+ years of Venus’s resonance orbit with Earth. If you use temperature averaged data e.g. a 3 year moving average, then the Venus “noise” disappears. BUT if you are looking at shorter term e.g. daily PTTI data, to determine where the daily energy is coming from, then Venus MUST be considered a source of energy. Since for a few months it is the most significant of all the planets, and it varies wildly. Another item of note is that Venus temperature cycles ALSO have a 60 year cyclicality. It starts just after the Jupiter/Saturn peak e.g. 1880, 1940, 2000, and goes into a 28 year period of less intensity followed by a 32 year period of higher levels of energy, on the 8 year cycles. That Venus follows the 60 year cycles from Jupiter & Saturn is not surprising since it is the Jupiter Saturn gravity resonance that dictates most of the minor planets eccentricities and cycles.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.5 Orbital Resonances & The PTTI – Peak Temperature Timing Indicator (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) You can see the current orbits visually in the following Figure 4.5a
It should be noted that as Jupiter and Saturn move from the negative Latitude (peak) values at the Perigee, nearest locations, that the force of gravity and energy transferred to earth decreases, BUT also with the distance increases the relative potential energy of Earth with respect to the planets ALSO increases. This removes energy from the Earth and makes it colder (bottom left corner of orbits). In reverse, as the distance decreases after reaching the apogee points (bottom left) and the planets “roll down” to their perigees, the potential energy gets turned back into friction/velocity and warms the Earth as well as the greater gravity forces. Now as the distances from Earth to Jupiter and Saturn increase in the first half of the cycle above,, the distance from the SUN to Earth decreases (planets cause eccentricity) , so that component of the energy added to Earth from the Sun increases. However, since most(?) of the sun/earth gravity is allocated towards maintaining the Earth orbit, the quantity available for tilt, spin, temperature, and storage as fossil fuels or ice is also varying. The exact allocation fractions over time are a research project for the future, but it should be noted that the range of variation in the Jupiter Saturn energies, is about the same as the variation in the Sun’s energies. I.e. conservation of energy in the causes of eccentricities. In the case of Jupiter which is getting more eccentric relative to the Earth (in the last 5000 years
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 of ephemeris data) in each 913 year cycle the less eccentric (warming) “half” of the cycle is actually shorter, under 456.5 (half of 913) years, than the longer more eccentric (cooling) “half”. For Saturn which is getting less eccentric (cooling) over the last 5000 years, it is reversed - the less eccentric half is longer than half the cycle (about 600 years), & the more eccentric warming half is shorter (about 300 years). Also currently the start of the 854/913 year cycle does NOT coincide with the Jupiter cycle, and Saturn also exhibits a 60 year resonance which manifests itself as a shorter less eccentric orbit followed by a longer more eccentric orbit. The Earth does not appear to have significant long cycles within the current 5000 year period up to now (just those slight 60 year and 854 year bite marks), but it is definitely becoming less eccentric i.e. warming due to potential energy. The earth orbit DOES have 2-7 year irregularities when it goes from cooling to warming and back again. HOWEVER we do know that Earth has eccentricity cycles of 405,000 years, and 100,000 year sub-cycles, AND there are tilt sub-cycles of 41,000 years that also show up as sub-cycles of the eccentricity cycles Needless to say all these variations when summed together result in a cyclic sequence that probably comes pretty close to never repeating, but the cycles are evident, and in theory could be accurately calculated given a fast enough computer. Note the alternating of the distances to Earth every 30 years or Saturn orbit. This is due to the location of Jupiter at the time. When Saturn is at its perigee AND Jupiter is on the same side of the Sun, then the Jupiter gravity draws Saturn into a closer orbit (hence alternating long spikes in the chart) When 30 years later, Saturn is again at its perigee, this time Jupiter is on the other side of the Sun (2.5 12 year orbits in 30 years), hence it has a smaller gravity effect on the Saturn orbit, which naturally goes further out (short alternating spikes) This is the 5:2 resonance effect of the Jupiter Saturn orbits. Since the Saturn orbit varies so much, then the Saturn gravity effect on EARTH also varies significantly. In addition, there is a Saturn gravity effect on the Jupiter orbit.- same as above but reversed. This accounts for why there is a nominal 60 year sub-eccentricity cycle in the Jupiter orbit. HOWEVER since an 11.858 year Jupiter orbit, does NOT resonate exactly with a 29.425 year Saturn orbit, there is a rotation of the resonance point around the Earth orbit, such that we get the nominal 913/973 year eccentricity when both planets line up exactly at their peak resonance. This of course ALSO requires that Earth be in the exact same location relative to the other two planets (i.e. one point zero exact year orbit). Graphically you can see part of this in the 1000 year PTTI (combination of Jupiter & Saturn gravity effects) visualization below. No wonder we get WOBBLES.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 The following figure shows the relative locations of the planets relative to the Sun Earth ecliptic plane. This shows why forces should be large when planets are closer at the perihelion points for Jupiter and Saturn. which
The first attempt to determine the relative impacts of the combined effects of both Jupiter and Saturn is Fig 4.5b is a simple sum of the Jupiter and Saturn forces vs time.
The observation is that peak forces, and hence peak temperatures from these two influences
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 alone occur on the ~60 year cycle at the 1880, 1940, 1999/2000 peak force points. The dominant 12 year cycle from Jupiter is readily evident. A new temperature peak should be expected in about 2058, or ~60 years after the last one. Cooling should be expected from 1998 for 18 years through 2016 or so. Then a slight warming due to Jupiter, then a further cooling into 2028. Next we can observe that the forces very rapidly decrease to their minimums in the 18 years following the peak. I.e. It cools off FAST in the first 6 years (half a Jupiter cycle) and then comes back and retests the cold point 12 years later. Note that this chart of the force of gravity does NOT reflect what happens to the relative potential energy of the planet. Immediately after the peak force point 1880, 1940, 1999 etc then the Earth goes into the phase where it is moving further away from the net Jupiter+ Saturn. I.e. the potential energy (of Earth relative to the other two) is increasing & the energy has to come from somewhere so it gets colder on Earth. In addition, for the 18 years (first 6years, then last 6 of the next 12) after the peak, the energy from Jupiter plus Saturn to Earth is net decreasing, again making it colder on Earth.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 The next figure 4.5c, 2Day SUN and Jupiter plus Saturn Forces 1900-2070, shows these Jupiter plus Saturn forces as they compare to the Forces imposed on the Earth from the sun.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
First you can see how Jupiter (dark blue) comprises ~90% of the total Jupiter plus Saturn forces. and the identification of the 1940, 1998, 2058 peaks. AND that the variation in the Jupiter force (~2E18 newtons), is roughly comparable to the variation in the Sun to Earth force (0.0002E22 newtons which equals ~2E18 newtons), which is exactly what should be expected if Jupiter is forcing the Earth eccentricity variations & energy is conserved. It just sloshes around on differing timetables Then a comparison to the forces from the Sun onto the Earth, shows that the Jupiter plus Saturn forces ALSO have an impact on the Sun to Earth force & hence energy. During the 6 year half cycle of increasing J+S force, there is also a corresponding (but not exact) increase in the Sun/Earth force. Jupiter’s eccentric orbit wobbles the earth & sun orbits so that the total energy increases. It could be visualized as when Jupiter attracts the Earth to its most eccentric extreme point, then 6 months later the Earth will be at its most extreme perihelion (closest to sun) point in its eccentric orbit. Conversely when Jupiter is further away forcing a less eccentric Earth orbit, then 6 months later the Earth will be at a less eccentric closest point (i.e. further out- cooler) when it comes in on its closest approach to the sun within that orbit. In other words Jupiter forces the Earth to get more energy from the sun (as well as from Jupiter) when it forces the Earth into a more eccentric orbit. Next we observe that there is a periodicity to the decreasing of the Sun/Earth forces. For the ~90 years from 1905 through ~1996, the peak sun forces are at a plateau. Then they drop for ~30 years & flatten out for another nominal 90 years. This continues through 2400, which is as far as I have taken the chart. Another observation is that the Jupiter+Saturn peaks at 1880, 1940, 1998, etc occur in the sun to Earth forces approximately two years earlier. – i.e. it’s a 1996 not 1998 peak. A similar pattern, plateau, increase, plateau, emerges for the minimum Sun Earth forces, (see Fig 4.5d below) except that the 30 year increase in the plateau does NOT occur at the same time as the drop in the maximum forces. The plateau rather than being 1905-1996, is at 19552045- see chart below (i.e. not what you get in a normal less eccentric curve such as the Jupiter or Saturn orbits where both the maximums and minimums converge at the same time..). An explanation is needed, although it is obviously orbit & Jupiter related, and contributes to the irregularity of the cyclical earthly temperatures. Finally it should be observed that the Sun/Earth forces are steadily decreasing as the Earth becomes less eccentric. Since the Jupiter eccentricity from 3000BC through 3000AD is continuing to become more eccentric, then both Saturn and the Earth should be and are continuing to become less eccentric. It is expected that this observed 6000 years of increasing Jupiter eccentricity, is part of, related to, and probably the major cause of the 21000 year half tilt cycle in the Earth. A plot of both Jupiter and Saturn for 200,000 years should confirm the planetary orbital sub cycles duration and point within the cycle, as well as how they fit/resonate to cause the tilt cycle, AND the warming part (nominal 20,000 years plus) of the ice age cycle.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 The following chart, Figure 4.5d, shows the minimum distances (as opposed to the maximums in the chart above)of the sun relative to the Earth
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Another variation of these energy curves is a TOTAL Energy impact on the Earth This is shown in Figure 4.5e.
The Sun forces in green & black (2day) data points, have the Jupiter plus Saturn forces in blue added, and the Venus forces (light brown) added together. Naturally this does not represent reality since the forces will act at different angles at different times, BUT it lets you relate the timing to the magnitudes. Note the peak plateau from 1902 to 1996, then the drop over ~20 years to the next plateau. This pattern continues for the next chart of 170 years also and also for the previous 5000 years of Jupiter and Sun-Earth data previously shown in sec 4.1, 2 & 3. It probably continues back until Jupiter reverses its eccentricity & starts to come back in towards the sun, which logically should have been about 30,000 years ago at the bottom of the ice age. The opposite pattern in the minimum forces does NOT correspond in the timing, where the plateau is nominally 1950 through 2040. with a following ~20+ year rise. The 90+30 years probably implies that there is some relation to the 120 years of a half cycle of the Venus energy cycle. Overall there is a long term decreasing eccentricity trend- i.e. the maximum energy is decreasing while the minimum energy is increasing, indicating that the Jupiter+Saturn eccentricity and its impacts on both the Sun and Earth is the cause. However the growing size of the Venus impactsright side lines are longer than left side brown lines) indicates that with the synchronized decreasing Earth (& Venus) eccentricity, then the relative impacts of the fixed, or at least
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 synchronized Earth Venus interaction may be having a more significant impact on those 8 year incidences of Venus energy impact from 1970 to 2090, when the Venus data in Sec 4.4 shows that the total Venus energy impact on Earth is growing for the first half of the 240 year cycle. I.e. the short term incidences of extreme weather hot spells may be explained by increased energy from Venus coincident with high Jupiter energy. Note 2. See how the “plateau” has a high degree of frequent Solar gravity influence for the first 50+ years then the frequency declines until in 1996 there is only a single year peak that defines the end of the plateau. Not sure what causes this, but obviously the 11-12 year separation of the Sun spikes e.g. 1985, 1996 etc is influenced by the Jupiter gravity influence on the Sun that also causes sunspots, both of which then impact the Earth, as a change in forces and energy. AND there is an influence from Venus that is probably resonating with the Jupiter forces. Note 3, see how the brown 8 year Venus cycle shows up (more visible on the right side), while Venus is negligible at most other times. Actually the Venus spike lasts for 3-4 months and the other 7.7 years it is negligible. The cause is the Venus Earth resonance in their orbits (variation of both of which are dictated by the 60 year Jupiter/Saturn resonance). There is also a 240 year growth (brown lines get bigger) and decay (brown lines get smaller in magnitude) cycle when you look at a longer chart. For a shorter view look at figures 5b and 5c which shows the energy and PTTI from 1995 through 2015 in the section explaining the PDO & El Nino/La Nina.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.5.1 The PTTI- Peak Temperature Timing Indicator (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) The PTTI is an arbitrary creation that currently works most of the time . It is a simple technique that attempts to combine the gravity timing effects from both Jupiter and Saturn on Earth AND the North South effects of the planets being above or below the Sun- Earth ecliptic plane. It is comprised of the arbitrary SUM of the Latitude (height above or below in degrees) of Jupiter and Saturn relative to the Sun-Earth Ecliptic plane vs. time. It is NOT the latitude of Jupiter relative to the Earth equator. It does NOT reflect the magnitude of the energy coming in, except in as much as the magnitude of the energy correlates to the latitude angle. AND we do know that the peak negative latitude occurs when the planet is at its perihelion (closest to sun), and the peak positive latitude is when the planet is at its aphelion- furthest from sun. It is an indicator derived solely from calculated orbital positions and does not use any measured temperature data. The theory is that Jupiter and Saturn contribute the majority of the fluctuation in planetary gravity forces on Earth. (Venus is a poor third except at certain times and mostly provides short term temperature noise which can be added.) The Sun and moon variations are temporarily ignored, even though they are dominant and provide the majority of the base infrequently or very slowly changing temperature. Moon variations average out within a year and their about monthly cycles will be smoothed out with yearly or 5 year averaged data. Sun/Earth variations are mostly longer term (1000s of years- tilt and eccentricity), and since the SUN defines the ecliptic plane, the sun is not capable of causing any north-south variation in temperature over time. Even though Jupiter is usually ~90% of the gravity contribution from the two, this is ignored by a simple addition of the latitudes.-i.e. the absolute value of the sum has no meaning, only the relative magnitude means anything. There is at least a major varying uncertainty in the value, depending upon the Venus, Sun and moon variations with time. This is a quick and dirty technique to determine WHEN the combined PEAK Jupiter and Saturn energy from gravity impact occurs. Usually it is close to the Jupiter (dominant) energy peak-or perigee. (In fact, the “forces” of gravity would cancel geometrically, but the energy contributions do not cancel) The PTTI should be used to determine relative relationships between “Jupiter plus Saturn” and the Earth temperature gravity contributions, and should correlate to short term Earth temperature fluctuation in the 10 to hundreds of years range. To do this “properly” some enterprising grad student or national lab is going to have to get exact energy contributions from the SUN, Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Venus and the other planets at all times (including tilt and precession changes) and to sum them at specific Earth locations of interest- e.g. Miami, New Orleans, Galveston for hurricanes, Darwin, Cairns in Australia, most of Indonesia, and SE Asia for cyclones etc. (my little PC can’t handle all this data). The temperature variations of other planets/asteroids vs time could be determined using a similar technique.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4.5f The PEAK Temperature Timing Indicator for 1940-2025.
The MAJOR OBSERVATION is that absolute (negative) latitude SUM extremes (light blue) occur in 1940 and 1998, which just happen to be temperature peaks (AGAIN) on the 3yr averaged Hadley world average temperature chart (see next figure). A secondary observation is that the 1982 (positive) peak is close behind and also corresponds to a relative temperature peak, when both Jupiter and Saturn are close together (same quadrant) and similar positive latitude- i.e. in the Northern Hemisphere) BUT also closer to the apogee (further away – i.e. less energy ) than closer to the perigee (at the 1940 and 1998 peaks.). Another chart from 1855 to 1940, ALSO shows that the 1880 Hadley peak temperature point corresponds to the negative maximum Sum of Latitudes. (daily data results in 32000 data points on this chart which is the limit of Excel charts- which makes it harder to create a longer daily chart) It is also noted that the short and frequent Venus peaks (light brown above) probably contribute to the extreme monthly variability on a Monthly Hadley temperature chart – i.e. all the temperature ”noise”. Also, the wiggles in Jupiter (blue line) and Saturn (pink) latitude curves are due to distance variation as the Earth goes round the sun EVERY YEAR, but the longer Jupiter and Saturn orbits leave those planets in the same relative quadrant of the solar system for several years. Second, there is a correlation of the peak latitudes to the shortest distance (peak force or peak energy transfer) to the planet. I.e. The shortest distance from Jupiter AND Saturn to Earth occurs when Jupiter is close its peak negative latitude (perigee of the planet) and Saturn is ALSO close
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 to its peak. The correlation works in part because both Jupiter and Saturn have their perigees (currently) in the 12o’clock to 3o’clock or NE quadrant, looking down onto the solar system. (A strange correlation, but it is probably due to the various gravity interactions that cause the orbital variations and eccentricities in the first place.) Thus the absolute peak PTTI happens close to when Jupiter is near its perigee (closest point at ~2 o’clock) AND Saturn is also near its closest perigee point (~12o’clock) or actually some point in between AND the Earth (& moon) are also there, all at the same time. (lesser total energies will occur when Jupiter and Saturn are at more distant locations- e.g. if Earth is close to the Jupiter perigee and Saturn is on the opposite side of its orbit- then Saturn is at least two times the Earth distance (-i.e. 2 AU) further away & hence giving less gravity energy.) This can be seen in Figure 4.5g, in the planetary locations as a function of time.
Since the maximum force of gravity or energy is a sum of negative latitudes (Jupiter and Saturn are below the ecliptic plane and near the perigee to maximize the combined effect from the two planets), the Earth temperature peak from Jupiter Saturn influences is mostly in the Southern hemisphere (- i.e. low PDO or NAO, or high ENSO oscillation values) The secondary peak point happens when both Jupiter and Saturn are on the other side of their orbits (further away) at the same time (i.e. currently about 40.3 years (1980+) after the first peak, and when Earth is on that
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 side also), BUT when both planets are closer to their apogees (furthest point) with the maximized potential energy between the two planets. This just happens to occur when Jupiter is ABOVE the ecliptic plane and Saturn is somewhere in between (i.e. mostly in Earths northern hemisphere which results in high PDO values). This then explains all the major energy inputs for major North South oscillations of the Earthly temperatures. I.e. PDO, El Nino, La Nina, the Atlantic oscillations etc. The release of ice age lake volumes to the Atlantic may cause perturbations in the salinity of the Atlantic, but these will only last as long as the cold & fresh water inputs continue, and there is no net change to the global energy available to explain a global cooling then warming.. The yearly and longer term hear/energy input cycles from the planets will quickly return the temperatures to the normal 60 year oscillations. The continuous heat inputs from the planets (probably Earth reaching a tilt minimum, and 41000 year apogee point 8200 years ago, maybe co-incident with Jupiter and Saturn sub-eccentricity cycles- since they are all interrelated by gravity forces) are vastly more significant than the cold in a left over ice age lake Agassiz. Finally a note about current conditions. Jupiter switched from a positive latitude to a negative one in 2008 and will continue there until 2012 or so. Since this is the dominant energy source (after the sun) then you should expect warmer southern hemisphere temperatures ( Hot spell and fires in Victoria Aust, in 1/09, more intense cyclones- Cat 5 Hamish off Australia in 2/09 reaching further south than ever before- the move of Jupiter into the southern hemisphere actually shifts the Hadley cells in a southern direction, moving cyclones further south, & the hotter central desert climate further south into Melbourne & Victoria) and cooler northern temperature-( Most snow in London in 2009 in more than 30 years, worst winter in central US in many years in 2009- again the Hadley cells move south with Jupiter, colder Canada weather moves into the US, hurricanes decrease etc). We should also be seeing the Sahara desert move south, and this explains the 30-65 year cycles recently found in Ghana (Science April 17 2009). After 2012 there will be a brief (6 year respite) as Jupiter again switches back to the north, but the years from 2020 through 2024 should again show the warmer south and colder north as Jupiter and El Nino again reverse. However this time we also have the Saturn influence being greatly diminished as its long term eccentricity decreases in influence. I.e. The years 2020-2024 are going to be very cold in the northern hemisphere (like the 1950s), while the southern will not be quite as warm as this current 2007 through 2012 period. The 30 year cooling cycle is in progress. NOW, lets test the PTTI (Peak Temperature Timing Indicator) hypothesis. First we have the confirmation identified above that the 1880 Hadley temperature peak confirms the idea. Second is a chart Fig 4.5h, of the PTTI from 1400 thru 2070 below, compared to a combination of the (Northern hemisphere) GISP2 temperatures with the Hadley 1850-2007 temperatures. NICE!! A very high correlation where almost ALL of the negative HTTI peaks (redlines) correspond to the peaks in the temperatures. It also predicts that the next temperature peak comparable to 1880, 1940 and 1998 will be in ~2057, then ~2115, AND the next comparable PDO/NAO point (top vs bottom peak) will also occur similarly. – We just identified WHY the PDO/ENSO/NAO etc cycles are about 60 years (30 warming, 30 cooling) AND that they can be predicted, which should make it easier to predict droughts and hurricane/cyclone cycles and if they are northern or southern hemisphere dominated.
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Figure 4.5h PTTI 1400-2070
Note that at the longer term PTTI transition points circa 1400-1450 and 1760-1820 where the secondary peaks transition from the first 60 year cycle being dominant to the 60 year cycle Wobble Theory 13, ( Aug, 2009) Page 100 of 151
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 coming off a period 30 years offset, (see the blue “moustache” lines at the bottom of the PTTI chart and the pink/purple “eyebrow” lines) and the sequence of the secondary peaks at the top of the chart where there is a sequence where instead of 60 year separations, there is the insertion of a bottom peak ONLY 30-40 years after the previous peak, which THEN becomes the basis for the next 60 year cycles series). This 90 year period instead of a 60 year period is observable from 1680 to 1790 on the GISP2 temperature chart, when the latest longer term warming started.. There is a major change in the direction of the combined Jupiter Plus Saturn temperature cycle. This indicates that we are transitioning from a sequence where something has changed. For example it may be that Jupiter had passed the apogee point and the effects of this change in heat energy are now combining with Saturn to produce the combined impact of the change. I.e. Jupiter going from going out (more eccentric- cooler) to going in (less eccentric- warmer) or some similar transition phase in Saturn. These are major turning points in the trend of the local temperature. Note also that this temperature curve is primarily for GISP2- i.e. NORTHERN hemisphere. Southern hemisphere (e.g. Vostok) curves may differ a little in the timing.
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5i below. IN fact for most of the time (on short Wobble Theory 13.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 4. 2009) Page 102 of 151 . ( Aug. shows the 5000 year history of Vostok and the PTTI representing the N_S variation of Jupiter plus Saturn gravity effects. First it is noted that Vostok and GISP2 do NOT correlate.
AND b) Calculate the temperature and energy inputs at selected locations (Caribbean. and the Sun gravity is always directed inward.e. but not perfectly – but remember that Vostok temperatures are taken every 25 years & so it would be very easy to slightly miss a peak. The PTTI minimums AND the direction change points at the tops (top arrows) correspond to Vostok maximum temperatures very frequently. AND YET. BUT weather forecasting should also be improved by knowing where the energy is directed to El Nino or modiki El Nino vs La Nina etc (. and SE Asia. there will be a slight warming for 2010-12 as the 12 year Jupiter input warms slightly. at the bottom the change points are indicated by the change of direction of the outer boundary of the lower PTTI curve (Like the short term PTTI where minimum points corresponded to the 1880. Annual prediction (2 vs 10 hurricanes?) will still depend on the weather. a peak at the bottom represents a temperature maximum and hence a change in direction of the warming or cooling)..John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 time scales) they seem to be opposite. Solar impacts should be somewhat similar. Note however that the impacts and timing from Solar gravity are NOT included here. Gulf of Mexico. In theory Jupiter and Saturn cause Earth eccentricity but as seen earlier.see July 3 2009 Science Magazine article by Peter Webster) Already the colder US winters in 2003-9 should have been predicted by the movement of the PDO south. 2009) Page 103 of 151 . the Sun Earth eccentricity) and one that is opposite (the angle of latitude of the Jupiter Saturn resonance which warms and cools alternatively from north to south?) On the longer term PTTI curve above.e. Jupiter/Saturn distance variations & resonances as proposed by this Wobble Theory. Northern Australia etc) in order to be able to predict yearly energy inputs to provide data for Hurricane/Cyclone prediction systems and PDO/El Nino prediction systems for longer term (tens of years) drought and rainfall prediction. ( Aug. i. AND the reduction in sunspots and the cooling effect from the Jupiter/Saturn cycle from 2003-2009 and beyond. In the future some National Lab or University is going to have to calculate the various distances and energies to various points on Earth in order to be able to verify that a) the GISP2 and Vostok/EPICA temperature data is actually from the Sun. on longer time scales. at the most extreme Earth eccentricity (closest to Jupiter) . 1942 and 1998 temperature peaks). BUT in the context that from 1998 thru 2028 (30 years) we are in a global PTTI cooling cycle Wobble Theory 13. Likewise. they both warmed from the bottom of the ice age 40Kyrs ago to the peaks 12K years ago for Vostok and 10K years ago for GISP2. the Sun impact 6 months later is ALSO at its most extreme or warmest. Indian Ocean. Gisp2 warming while Vostok cools. Clearly there is a warming source that is common (i. US East Coast. except that the angles of incidence from Jupiter/Saturn will rotate around the Earth.
one point zero exact year orbit).3).same as above but reversed. Wobble Theory 13. (see Ch 4. there is a Saturn gravity effect on the Jupiter orbit. No wonder we get WOBBLES. Graphically you can see part of this in the 1000 year PTTI Figure 4. does NOT resonate exactly with a 29. then the Jupiter gravity draws Saturn into a closer orbit (hence alternating long spikes in the chart) When 30 years later.. This accounts for why there is a nominal 60 year sub-eccentricity cycle in the Jupiter orbit. This is due to the location of Jupiter at the time. Saturn is again at its perigee. In addition.e. hence it has a smaller gravity effect on the Saturn orbit. Since the Saturn orbit varies so much. there is a rotation of the resonance point around the Earth orbit. 2009) Page 104 of 151 .2) HOWEVER since an 11.858 year Jupiter orbit.5 12 year orbits in 30 years).5j (combination of Jupiter & Saturn gravity effects) visualization below. this time Jupiter is on the other side of the Sun (2. which naturally goes further out (short alternating spikes) This is the 5:2 resonance effect of the Jupiter Saturn orbits. ( Aug. This of course ALSO requires that Earth be in the exact same location relative to the other two planets (i. then the Saturn gravity effect on EARTH also varies significantly. When Saturn is at its perigee AND Jupiter is on the same side of the Sun.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 1000 Year Jupiter Saturn Resonance Effect Gravity Impacts on Saturn and on Earth We have previously noted the alternating of the distances to Earth every 30 years or Saturn orbit (Ch 4.425 year Saturn orbit. such that we get the nominal 913/973 year eccentricity when both planets line up exactly at their peak resonance.
000 year eccentricities. Lasker’s Earth eccentricity & Inclination (to the Sun Jupiter plane?) calculations over 11 million years.3. How it relates to Jupiter & Saturn is not evident but easy to find out. and energy source. This data will be needed to tie down the timing of the 41000 yr tilt cause. and then the nominal 100Ky cycle (which is 2.4MY cycle. Wobble Theory 13. thus leading to the next longer term eccentricity sub-cycles (evident in the curving of the 5000 years Jupiter sec 4.000 year cycle in latitudes probably combine or resonate into the tilt pattern. and probably on the order of say 41K years – which result in the tilt wobbles on Earth?) Tilt is probably an off ecliptic plane phenomenon. With the exception of Jacques Lasker’s equations for the Jupiter and Saturn eccentricities vs time (Lasker 2004 ) I have been unable to find any pictures or data of Jupiter and Saturn eccentricity patterns over the multi-hundred thousand year time frame.5 41Ky cycle. and resonance cycles do not mesh exactly. My guess is that the off ecliptic orbits of primarily Jupiter Plus Saturn combine to form a 41KY off-ecliptic resonance wobble that results in the Earth tilt and the subsequent increase in Earth energy & ice age warming. On an even longer time frame.405KY or 2. 2009) Page 105 of 151 . Each little spike in the 11MY curve corresponds to the spike caused by the 41KY cycle as it combines into the nominal 100Ky cycle which eventually leads to the 405KY eccentricity cycle which builds to the 6. meaning that Jupiter and Saturn and their latitude variations in energy are the probable cause.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 This explains why the 60 year Jupiter Saturn resonance effect. ) dominating climate for the last million years.000 years is well known. I would guess that either the rumored Jupiter and Saturn 70. I would guess that the nominal 900 year eccentricity cycles.5k. or the rumored 100. The tilt frequency of 41. leads to a nominal 900 year ROTATING RESONANCE (854-913-973 year) orbital oscillation also. While the orbital data is not available in the Ephemeris programs. also show the rising/falling pattern of rotating resonances.2 and Saturn orbit plots sec 4. which is also the probably energy source for coming out of ice ages.see the three 3 wave down legs in Laskar below for the Earth’s eccentricity. ( Aug. This is the probable cause of the 41Ky cycles dominating the eccentricity up to a million years ago. Figure 4. The rotation of the 60 year intermediate peaks through the 900+ years of the next larger eccentricity cycles is readily evident in the 1400-2180 PTTI curve.
Tilt was at a maximum of 24. A Global Averaged temperature (e. When the earth began warming by increasing the energy absorbed from potential energy. Hadley.) There must be energy-in changes that cause tilt (probably gravity from Jupiter and the Sun) and precession (probably the sun’s & moon’s gravity & maybe Jupiter) changes. A warming (shorter distance) while in the negative latitude. then the wobbles will depend on where in the Jupiter/Saturn sub-eccentricity cycles you are. in the 41000 year cycle. when it was at its maximum negative latitude in the southern hemisphere.5 degrees. The temp vs time curves from GISP2 and Vostok are NOT going to coincide (i. when the Earth reached its warmest point (most energy content since the ice age bottom about 20.5 degrees (max energy content?) in about the year 6200BC (8200 years ago). ( Aug. due to tilt and precession. I.g.5 (minimum energy content) in about the projected year 12. Or the absolute distance to Jupiter. both warming or both cooling) at all times. AND where in the latitude angle cycles you are. ½ a precession cycle of 19K yr (or about 10Kyrs) earlier or later. (half of the 41. Hence.000 years before) in the most recent warming phase (10K yr). Hence at the bottom of the ice age (when Chicago was under ice). When you add energy it tightens up & spins more (increased angular momentum) and tilts less. IN other words.300AD. Note also that tilt and precession are visual results that correlate with but do NOT cause energy changes on the longer term (they only cause seasonal distance changes in a single earth year orbit.e.which will also impact the energy distribution (North-South) entering the earth over time. Wobble Theory 13. when the Earth is warming. The precession however DOES impact the temperature LOCATION on the Earth’s surface. some of this energy went into decreasing the tilt .000 year cycle ) Visualize when a toy top is losing energy it tilts over more from the vertical (or rotation axis) until it hits maximum tilt at 24. Due to precession the GISP2 location would be closer to Jupiter at one time as opposed to the opposite point in Russia which would be closer.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4. depending upon the relative locations. If the energy source is the sun (i.5 degrees for Earth. the tilt is decreasing from 22 through 23. For shorter periods the timing of the Jupiter/Saturn source may make the temperature lead or lag. will warm the Southern hemisphere before it gets to the Northern hemisphere. there would be less ice at the equivalent point in Russia.5 degrees (now!) to 24.e. or tightening up the rotation to the current 23. GISP2 and VOSTOK/EPICA temperatures should NOT be expected to coincide. or tilt.5 degrees until we reach the minimum tilt of 22. For long times (100KY+) the temps should coincide where the Earth eccentricity dominates the energy cycle.6 Tilt or Obliquity and Precession (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) TILT or OBLIQUITY: It is generally acknowledged that the gravity force of the planets causes Earth’s obliquity.e. 2009) Page 106 of 151 . or GISS temps) is NOT really meaningful when compared to GISP2 or Vostok. Earth eccentricity) the you would expect similar patterns (A Major move from cold ice age to warm period) BUT if the source of the energy is Jupiter/Saturn.
g. Now when the tilt decreases then the angle between the incident gravity from the Sun increases (90 -24=66 vs 90-22.000 year Earth eccentricity cycles ago. then we should expect that as tilt decreases the dynamo effect increases (gravity & tilt are more maximized) and the Earth energy increases and Wobble Theory 13.000 was last at a comparable location in time. It is comparable to the reduction that started about 420. Note the reduction in the magnetic field strength over the last few thousand years on the left side. add energy to a spinning top & it straightens up or spins truer. 2009) Page 107 of 151 . or almost two 405.000 years ago.7a. increased spin etc) then there is a correlation with decreased tilt.7 Earthly Magnetic Fields and the Ozone Hole/Montreal Protocol (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is figure 4.000 years ago.e.5=67. Why? The last time the Earth’s magnetic field reversed or flipped was that spike on the right side about 780. which is about the time that the 405.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Ch 4.000 years.5 degrees) and since ions (in the Earth’s liquid Core AND in the Stratosphere rotating through a gravity field. The Earth Magnetic field has been Decreasing for 100+ years if not for say 10. ( Aug. but also correlating on a macro scale with ice ages. will absorb gravitational energy to convert it to magnetic field energy (the dynamo effect). It is noted that when energy is added to the Earth (e. I.
I.For the ~20. PDO & El Nino/La Nina. the northern lights will be more visible further south. – i. Note also. For the last 10. does this impact the amount of energy retained in the ice or the timing of the variations? Second. then the correlation does not work.e. resulting in north south variations. The chemistry equations used to justify the Montreal protocol & banning of CFCs. VOSTOK). the magnetic field decreases. This also means that with a decreased magnetic field.g. ( Aug. the ozone hole will get larger. while the troposphere/ground can stay constant or even warm. The angle of the tilt determines how much of the incoming gravity energy can be transferred into magnetic field strength. With a smaller angle between the incoming energy and the rotation of the Earth liquid core ions.e. obviously did NOT include the influences of the energy changes from a decreasing magnetic field and the subsequent decrease in conversion of gravity energy to magnetic field energy to travel energy for the Stratospheric ions moving towards the poles. that tilt impacts the Earth’s magnetic field strength. Magnetic field decreases result in larger ozone holes. I. e. then the warming should generate an increasing magnetic field. Note also that the incoming energy variations due to distance will also change this. because if the magnetic field changes cause the ozone hole size then I want to be able to go back to using the cheaper CFCs for the financial benefit of mankind. Note however that this correlation depends on the sources of warming and cooling. There MUST be a continuing source of the energy coming into the Earth. As the Earth cools. When the Jupiter gravity force is above the ecliptic plane (positive Jupiter/Latitude value) the angle of energy incidence will also change. as the Earth has cooled slightly (both GISP2 and EPICA hit peak temperatures 10K to 12K years ago) then the mag field has also decreased.000 years of warming since the ice age bottom.e. Predicting the possibility of a change in the polarity of the magnetic field due in about 50. to provide the magnetic field energy radiating out.e.first if you take ice core samples right on top of the magnetic field south pole (i. gravity. 2.000-12. 1. If Jupiter or Saturn is responsible for warming. A comment on the self generating dynamo theory. vs the amount contributed by CFCs (for which a Nobel Prize was awarded). there needs to be an evaluation of just how much the magnetic field variation contributes to the ozone hole.e.5 degrees. 2009) Page 108 of 151 . energy for billions of years. The Earth mag field continuously radiates energy outward. If eccentricity and the SUN distance is responsible then the correlation works. resulting in magnetic field peaks corresponding to tilt peaks at 22. There is a possibility that the Montreal protocol is based on incomplete scientific conclusions. Is this significant compared to the chemistry of CFCs & ozone impacts? Just asking. the Stratosphere will cool.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 the magnetic field strength increases. the amount of energy transferred to the ions will be greater. then there is less energy that is transferred to the Stratospheric ions. and in general the magnetic field should approximately correspond to global warming relating to the Earth’s tilt.000 years.i. Two questions about the Earth’s magnetic field. When Earth eccentricity moves through the aphelion point (max eccentricity) the potential Wobble Theory 13. or differences between Antarctic & arctic/Greenland temperatures. The rotational axis of the Magnetic field is approximately one half of the Earths tilt from the rotational axis. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE.000 years.
ice age charts. At the previous 405K year cycle (minimum eccentricity) peak ~380. resulting in the ice age length warming peaks currently at about 10K years and counting.000 years ago. the length of the warming period/plateau (+/.000 years ago (the first cooling bottom after the earth hit the 405.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 energy relative to the sun. ( Aug. Wobble Theory 13.000 years before the long slow cooling slide began again. At least until a 65MY asteroid/comet strikes to cause a short term dust/temperature blip. there was no or little glaciation at the cooling bottom ~350. Apparently according to the Illinois State Univ. stored up. 2009) Page 109 of 151 .2-3 degrees) was about 30. is released as velocity and friction as the Earth gets closer to the sun.000 years would make this warming similar to the one 400K years ago.000 year apogee eccentricity nearest point) If this is true then mankind may have the benefit of several hundred thousand years of relatively warm period with little ice to battle. Cooling for the next 20.
then it should be feasible to construct a similar frequency analysis chart for energy. 2009) Page 110 of 151 . which is generated by the dynamo effect of charged particles (iron ions in the liquid core) rotating through a varying gravity field. a frequency analysis of the Earth’s Magnetic Field Strength. The reduced magnetic field will also increase the size of the (charged particle) ozone hole (with less mag field driving force the ions travel a shorter distance towards the poles yielding a larger hole). Since this is a frequency analysis chart for Magnetic Fields. even while the ground troposphere temperature has been increasing due to increasing solar insolation and gravity. (hence the Montreal protocol) Wobble Theory 13. thus accounting for (some/all?) of the recent observed reductions in the energy content and temperature of the Stratosphere. ( Aug. Fig 1g is a start but it should also be feasible to identify EACH of the various physical phenomena that cause the various bumps in the frequency chart.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) Reality is Figure 4. or temperature or gravity (& solar insolation) field impacts on Earth as a function of time.7b. result in changes in the energy imparted to the charged particles in the stratosphere. thus raising questions about the validity or at the least the completeness of the theory that the hole size is caused by chlorofluorocarbons. Variations in the incoming force of gravity results in variations in the magnitude & probably locations (and possibly field flipping?) of the Earth’s magnetic field. Changes in the magnetic field which continuously emits energy to space. converting the gravity energy to magnetic field energy. showing what causes many of the various bumps and phenomena associated with the magnetic field.
2009) Page 111 of 151 . the Sun’s gravity. and the tilt.e. and the relative distance to the various sources of energy. closer if a planetary source) Several factors are involved in determining “closer”. Jupiter Saturn. Longer term effects >1000 years). A complicating factor is the longer term precession of the Earth.e. Gray or Colorado State University have identified correlations of the PDO and AMO with the North American ground Temperature and with the 30 years up and 30 years down over-all cycles of temperature fluctuations in North America (e.(northern or southern hemisphere) Wobble Theory 13. Tornados etc. El Nino.e. tilt. La Nina. it gets to be a very complicated calculation to determine the distance from the source (sun or Jupiter) to a point on the Earth. Normal daily temperature cycling would return the global temperature to equilibrium conditions rapidly.e. Joe D’Aleo and Dr.) Since the Earth is always at or close to equilibrium (energy-in equals energy-out at least twice daily).5 degrees and the precession rotating the tilt around the earth. The global temperature oscillates on a nominal 60 year cycle of cooling and warming. El Nino. Nominal 12 year cycles of changes in the direction of warming or cooling can be observed and logically should be attributable to Jupiter’s changes of Latitude. then it stands to reason that if the PDO has a high value (northern hemisphere warmer than the southern) then the source of the warming energy MUST be higher in the northern hemisphere. seasonality will be “cancelled” out by using annual average temperature date. The intermediate term (10 to 100s of years) effects happens when Jupiter and Saturn are above/below the Sun-Earth ecliptic plane. A positive value means the Northern Pacific is warmer than the Southern Ocean . Note that the PDO shift from high to low whenever the Jupiter orbit goes from the northern to southern hemisphere. The short term (less than a year) effects. ( Aug. i. northern or southern hemisphere. (i. above and below the Sun Earth Ecliptic plane. Venus etc gravity which are dependant upon the distance to the point on the Earth. La Nina. Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the relative movement of the warmer water in the Pacific ocean. Dr.6 degrees.i. They are the tilt of the Earth. Since Jupiter in its 12 year orbit goes from above to below every 12 years then this should be evident in the cycles for the PDO.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 5: Explaining PDO. AMO etc (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) PDO. the precession of the tilt. With the Jupiter latitude (relative to the Sun Earth ecliptic plane varying from +/.g. the Sun’s insolation. so any sustained PDO warming or cooling requires an anisotropic energy input. In order for the northern hemisphere to be consistently warmer for 6 years or more. and the Earth tilt varying from 22 to 24. & AMO etc The PDO. Hurricanes. then there HAS to be a continuous source of energy that is maintaining that distribution of warmth. precession. i. eccentricity will be too small on a 10s of years scale to be noticeable. ENSO.
The PTTI components show the Jupiter latitude (dark blue) and the Saturn Latitude (purple) and the composite PTTI indicator in light blue. This chart shows. it is at least possible. ( Aug. The chart is extremely comples. 2009) Page 112 of 151 . Solar variations do not show this frequency as readily (even though the Solar variation also increase with the Jupiter Wobble Theory 13. Basically what we are trying to do is compare the measured temperatures and PDO North-South distribution to the Planetary positions and the composite of their relative positions to the north and south. Given that Jupiter is the largest variation in north south energy sources.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 5a. then the PDO from Mantua from 1900 on. You can infer a possible cause and effect. the PDO and Jupiter + Saturn Latitude or PTTI shows the correlation of the changing of directions of the PDO with the movement of Jupiter & Saturn above or below the Ecliptic plane. the Global Hadley temperature (green) the 5 year averaged PDO (red) for Shen from 1850 to 1900. Basically every time Jupiter crosses the zero line (equator of Sun earth ecliptic plane). there is a change in the direction of the PDO. First there are approximate 12 year bumps in the red PDO that seem to have some correlation to the 12 year Jupiter variations (dark blue) from positive to negative latitudes & back. BUT if you really strain you can see some patterns and infer some tentative conclusions.
etc.e.g.e. Variation in Earthly energy distribution from north to south (i. I. Also the cycles change in synchronization with the Earthly temperature cycles caused primarily by Jupiter & Venus as shown in 13 above. BUT in addition north-south variations will change with the angle of inclination. then the whole temp pattern shifts south. ( Aug. the varying distance related gravity effects of the Sun. since it will be just slightly closer to the offending planet/moon. north or south) the maximum energy is directed. IT should be predictable. .e. i.(tropical rains) head south This explains why the entire Sahara shifts up & down on 60 year cycles and on 840 or 913 year cycles and why droughts come & go. Nth Queensland gets worst cyclones in years. When Jupiter is above the zero line/ecliptic. moon. then the PDO is in its strong warming phase. how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Venus.e. OR in other words. when Jupiter & Sat are moving south. and the Earth potential energy is building up causing cooling. When Jupiter or the moon is located above the solar/earth ecliptic plane then there will be more energy coming into the Earth above the equator. Jan/Feb 2009: cold Canada air goes to lower 48 states. 1940-46 2003-2009. 1998 & future 2057-8). 1940.e.when the peaks are decreasing as the Earth eccentricity decreases and the Jupiter eccentricity increases NOTE how Hadley circulation cells will shift north or south depending on where the source of the energy is hitting.e. Second for the 60 year Hadley temperature cycles (green) it is possible to see that the first cooling down 30 years (after the PTTI southern hemisphere Peak tags in 1880. The 12 year Jupiter orbital cycles results in 6 up or warm years followed by 6 cool years accounting for the nominal 12 year cycles in the PDO and ENSO. As the temperature is cooling and both Jupiter and Saturn are getting more eccentric in each 60 year cycle. then the PDO is in its low or cooling phase.e. AND these also correspond to every second (smaller light blue) peaks in the PTTI when both Jupiter and Saturn are in their more eccentric (hence cooler) parts of their 60 year orbital eccentricities I. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation etc oscillate) with peaks and valleys is first going to depend on the amount of energy that is coming into the Earth as identified above. or latitude. And do not have north south variations. Jupiter.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 increases). London gets coldest in 30 years. The 12 and 60 year cycles in Jupiter’s orbit result in changes in the amount of energy impacting the Earth. of the incoming energy peak. lots of floods & rain. First there is a change in the direction of the PDO/AMO temperature whenever Jupiter crosses the ecliptic plane. PDO/ENSO and AMO. b) getting less extreme in the maximum northern latitude because the composite of the latitudes for the two planets occur at times such that combined they provide less energy.e. When Jupiter is below the ecliptic plane there will be more energy coming into the southern hemisphere. 2009) Page 113 of 151 . i. hot desert in central Aust moves to southern Aust & Victoria gets hotter & bush fires. AND in the point at which (above or below the ecliptic plane (i.. In addition the longer 60 year eccentricity cycle of Jupiter’s orbit (see Ch 4) is responsible for the 30 years up and 30 years down observed in the PDO etc. i. A chart of the PDO and ENSO and the Earthly temperature variation with time (fig 19a) shows first that the PDO & ENSO act in almost opposite modes. and ENSO is in its warming or strong phase. This is the first order 12year cycle change when Jupiter above the ecliptic warms the Northern hemisphere Wobble Theory 13.e. and tilt and precession stages. When Jupiter is below.corresponds to the negative PDO & corresponding peak southern oscillation (mostly). when PDO is high ENSO is low in temperature. I. then the composite PDO is a) cooling.
is constantly flowing through the Earth system. In Fig 5a it is noted that changes in the direction of EVERY PDO change correspond to changes in the direction of the Jupiter latitude. Venus. – i. just like the lesser solar insolation energy is Wobble Theory 13. Whenever Jupiter is very close to the Earth every 60 years then this increase in incoming energy can overpower the decrease that would come about normally by Jupiter crossing below the ecliptic plane. AND cycled caused by Venus which also has an even more pronounced north-south variation due to it being above or below the Sun Earth ecliptic plane. while larger and resulting in more visible tidal effects. and the moon. The energy primarily from the force of Jupiter’s gravity. given that Jupiter spends half its ~12 year orbit above the Sun Earth ecliptic plane (positive angle (light blue) on Fig 5a. It should be noted that all these temperature variations are induced by gravity variations that are a result of Jupiter’s eccentricity which changes the eccentricity of the other planets. It should be very feasible to predict when and how much the PDO and ENSO will oscillate.e. 2008 report. The question was raised as to where does the energy from the CO2 induced Greenhouse effect “Hide” while the PDO & AMO cycles are in cooling mode.intellicast. and that these peaks will be emphasized further when they coincide with Jupiter peaks. It should also be feasible to predict when and how much the NAO and (to me) unknown SAO (South Atlantic Oscillation) and El Nino/La Nina will oscillate. Man is not yet capable of creating enough energy (e. the 30 year Saturn cycles. There should also be smaller lesser effects form Saturn. within the 60 year cycles there are also lesser cycles such as the ~4year periodicity of peak El Ninos/La Ninas. & associated articles such as “More on The Great Pacific Climate Shift and the Relationship of Oceans to Temperatures and Arctic Ice”).com/Community/Content. Next the PDO and AMO oscillate with the 60 year energy cycle imposed primarily by Jupiter’s orbital distance variations. by coal.aspx?ref=rss&a=126 (D’Aleo May 19. The PDO and AMO correspond exactly to the Earthly land temperature variations from Hadley or GISS Temp. The greenhouse effect can only increase by delay some of the solar insolation or gravity energy if the incoming energy is increased. ( Aug. Secondly. As noted in the D’Aleo papers above. And only falls when the angle goes negative & Jupiter is then closer to the southern hemisphere. PDO would be high in the north. (also basically caused by Jupiter induced eccentricity) When the shorter term Venus gravity peaks occur (see Fig 5b below) it is speculated that El Nino/La Nina peaks also happen.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 preferentially.g. This is confirmed by figures from this source. then it should be expected that the energy would impact the earth in the northern hemisphere more since it is a few kilometers closer to Jupiter. The heat then continues to rise and accumulate in the PDO as long as Jupiter is above. tend to cancel out when averaged over a single year. Energy from the greenhouse effect does not exist because it cannot be created. The obvious answer is that it doesn’t. Such variations should be calculable using the various orbital parameters. While the 60 year periodicity is caused by the 60 year Jupiter Saturn resonance effect. 2009) Page 114 of 151 . This imposes the 60 year cycle in the PDO/AMO & ENSO. Variations due to the moon. oil or nuclear) to provide the energy to make such large changes in temperature. In Fig 5a it can be seen that the PDO starts to rise as soon as the Jupiter latitude angle reverses direction. there are also the 12 year Jupiter alone cycles. As indicated by Joseph D’Aleo at http://www. They are natural and NOT man made.
which would eliminate the PDO within a few days. adding more energy to the southern hemisphere. Hence varying PDO & AMO and Earth temperatures are all primarily dictated by the relative position of Jupiter etc and its eccentric orbit (which also dictates Earth eccentricity and the Earth Sun distance variations and the variations in the smaller solar insolation). ( Aug. there is increased energy (high PDO) from both for an extended period of time (a few extra years) Wobble Theory 13.g. would force the PDO/NAO etc to come to equilibrium. then a physical difference. if not yearly/seasonal variations. At shorter times within each year the effects of the moon’s orbit above & below the equator will also change this. PDO further north. When you add in that Jupiter’s eccentric orbit results in it being closer or further away . Since the Earth is constantly at equilibrium temperature because the Stefan–Boltzmann Law forces it to be. When the energy flows in from above the equator from a closer Jupiter then it is warmer above the equator and the PDO & AMO peak. then you also get increases and decreases in the amount of gravity energy flowing into the Earth. can only be MAINTAINED if there is a constant REPENISHMENT OF A LARGER AMOUNT OF ENERGY. 2009) Page 115 of 151 .John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 constantly flowing through the Earth. Note that the one major exception to the clean 12 year Jupiter dominated cycles is the 1980s period when the PDO stays in the northern hemisphere longer than it should. If you look at the PTTI chart you will notice that this 1980s period is when BOTH Jupiter and Saturn are in the Northern Hemisphere (with positive latitude values) and since they are not exactly synchronized to peak at the same time. e. When Jupiter goes below the ecliptic plane and more energy comes in below the equator then the PDO is low and ENSO higher. Otherwise the SBL & day night variations.
For short term seasonal weather predictions it will however be essential. as far as directing energy north or south of the plane. but on shorter time frames and over a year will MOSTLY cancel out. ( Aug. The Moon also has influences (probably greater. D’Aleo data Wobble Theory 13.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 5b Angles of Latitude above/below the Ecliptic Plane for Jupiter. 2009) Page 116 of 151 . Saturn and Venus for the short term of 1995 through 2015 shows which planet has influence when.
It may be feasible to predict that the hurricane season will be slow or slight even when Jupiter is a significant factor. it is wet in California. fortunately Saturn is in the northern hemisphere. but due to the yearly frequency of lunar variations these changes will be masked by the normal annual temperature variations. ALSO in the Southern hemisphere. January 2014 is probably going to cause a premature spring warming. First Jupiter spikes low in the southern hemisphere. and Jupiter is just transitioning from the southern to the northern hemisphere (the reverse of Jan 2009).John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Note how the D’Aleo El Nino peaks correspond to the Venus gravity peaks on these short term charts. However. with its wild ecliptic swings. All based on the relative energy content of the parts of the world. but if Venus hits the north during the winter. e. Longer term comparisons have not yet been made. Jupiter and to a lesser extent Venus Saturn. we have a northern hemisphere peak of Saturn and Venus. If this prediction technique is valid Spring in Australia (Oct 2010) is going to be very hot. Figure 5c shows the magnitude of the energy variations for Jupiter and Saturn AND ALSO for Venus (brown) for the same short 1995-2015 time period. The energy content of both the ocean and air should be somewhat predictable based on the locations of the Sun. Note that in early 2009 Jupiter had already slipped into the southern hemisphere. which just happens to be half the 60 year Jupiter energy cycle. hopefully it will be too early in the season to form cyclones. 2009) Page 117 of 151 . probably influencing the early 2009 Australian temperature and cyclone extremes. Then look at Jan 2014. Given the size of the energy spike (Jupiter plus Venus). Making these oscillations predictable will facilitate PDO/NAO/El Nino/La Nina etc. Note what happens in Oct 2010. then Venus also spikes for a major temperature increase. Which results in the 60 year cooling warming cycle of Global temperatures. Hurricanes frequencies supposedly have 30 years cycles.it may very well cause Northern hemisphere problems also. Wobble Theory 13. and tidal influences.g. the moon. drought & hurricane/cyclone/monsoon prediction in various parts of the world. also influences these north south variations.it is larger than what we had when the 1998 peak temperature happened in 1998 . ( Aug. instead of Summer/Fall. Again the peak energy is very high. etc at various times of the year. October is still northern hemisphere hurricane season/cyclone season. It is probable that the Lunar orbit.. when it is dry in Australia. but Venus spiked into the northern hemisphere.
then first it would take some external energy to move the ocean temperature to one side or the other (e. to enable disaster and drought preparedness. say soybeans instead of wheat or rice for example if a drought is known to be approaching. a warmer PDO up north). Hence the varying orbit and latitude of Jupiter etc provides both the energy and the uneven distribution to maintain the PDO or ENSO condition. Then once in a PDO warm north mode. there would be an equilibrium force of the warmer water trying to return to the equilibrium conditions (i. warmer water would flow to the south). This then requires that the PDO/ENSO cycle is NOT just a back and forth sloshing of energy but a process that requires additional energy from outside in order to maintain the dis-equilibrium condition. or more likely some mandated Government agency (NOAA) should be able to develop a computer program that models the various forces and then can Wobble Theory 13. ( Aug.) This might enable more intelligent crop choices. and in addition since the north would be warmer it would radiate more energy out to space.g.helps take the guesswork out of what & when to plant..John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Multi-year climate predictions similar to ocean tide tables should be feasible years in advance.e. Some enterprising grad student. and crop plantings etc. The idea that PDO/ENSO oscillations could occur on Earth as a natural unforced phenomenon is unrealistic. 2009) Page 118 of 151 . thus requiring that this energy be replaced CONTINUOUSLY in order to maintain the warmer PDO conditions. Assuming that an equilibrium condition was for a uniform energy distribution with both PDO and ENSO at the same temperature. (Farmers will love this.
(Nature News 12 Aug 09) showing that the current high rate of hurricanes was matched or exceeded during the medieval warming of 1000 years ago. adds credence to the 900+ year cycle that also resulted in the warming peak of 1000 years ago.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 generate a fairly reliable prediction for the various global locations. Primarily Jupiter which is above the sun-Earth ecliptic plane from 1980-2000. hence warmer in the northern hemisphere which has more land This also explains why since Jupiter swung below the ecliptic plain in 2008. floods and hot temperatures further south may be expected to be even worse during the last quarter of 2010. and the Hadley circulation cells over hot central Australia are moving south forcing more hot air into Victoria causing the early 2009 unprecedented bush fires. These can be explained by the latitude variations for the planets. then storms/cyclones. Given that Jupiter will be even further south of the ecliptic AND Venus will add a southern energy spike peaking in late Oct 2010. The more recent data (following two figures 5d & 5e) from Syun-Akasofu at the 2009 Heartland Institute Conference in NY. the cyclones off Northern Australia are going further south. 2009) Page 119 of 151 . cyclone /hurricane prediction much more reliable. ( Aug. These predictions should make drought. If the 60 year cycles can also be documented then the evidence on the planetary cause is becoming even more convincing. show hemispheric and land water differentials in temperature over time.. etc. Wobble Theory 13. the Southern hemisphere is now getting more energy. (even for so early in cyclone season) The most recent data from Michael Mann of Penn St Univ.
2009) Page 120 of 151 .John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Wobble Theory 13. ( Aug.
In fact the current temperature happens to be smack dab in the middle of the historical range of Earth temperature for the last 10. and 1000 years to 2007. as opposed to Antarctica where we have multiple cycles. These orbital distance fluctuations impact the planets’ forces of gravity and energy imparted to the Earth.then it will warm up again. Thus the current rapid change period is NOT unusual. Global Warming Causes for the last 1000 years (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) 1000 YEAR CONSIDERATIONS Temperature curves from GISP2 (49KY BP to 1850) with the Hadley measurements from 1850-2007 added. indicating that during the last warming (100K+ years ago) ALL the Greenland ice melted. were previously shown graphically. In addition to the complexities of their 12 and 30 year orbits relative to the Earth identified above. Jupiter is in a much longer term more-eccentric cycle dating from before 3000BC (limits of the ephemeris/orbits program).John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 6. Charts of the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn around the SUN show that these planets have very complex orbits. Jupiter began getting less eccentric (warmer on Earth) in about 1696. In its ~1000 year cycle. possibly even being the cause and source of energy of the Earth’s 41. Also two zoomed in charts. there are about 20 periods when the temperature changes up or down by 1 to 1. i. It is hypothesized that this longer term moreeccentric cycle in Jupiter corresponds to similar less-eccentric cycles in Saturn. EPICA or Vostok charts could also be shown since they confirm the overall trends but they are of a lesser time resolution so not as useful. 5000 years to the present. regardless of what CO2 does.000 year tilt/obliquity & eccentricity cycles. such that every second Saturn orbit is less than the previous one.b.hence the ~60 years cycles in Earth temperatures 1880-1942-2003 etc – see 13.. coral. or 5:2 resonance. ( Aug.. when it again begins to become more eccentric (colder winters) ALSO. AND Jupiter’s orbit also fluctuates similarly for every 5 orbits (~60 years). (It’s also higher/colder down south!) Orbital considerations: A chart of Earth’s distance from the Sun for the last 1000 years shows a relatively steadily decreasing eccentricity as the Earth orbits in a more circular pattern. Note that in the 5000 year temperature curve. & will continue until ~2224.5 degrees C warming. after the next 300-400 years of cooling. It is also noted that there is only one ice age cycle in the GISP2 temperature curves. the others zag).. It is actually the NORMAL mode of change. In the current trend we should expect at least another 1. 2009) Page 121 of 151 . History shows that fish. consistent with and contributing to the base temperature trendline identified above.5 degrees over a period of 200-300 years. (Can astronomers confirm that Jupiter’s eccentricity reversed at about the same time as Earth reversed either its Eccentricity or tilt cycles Wobble Theory 13. (previously identified as ~1000 yr cycles in the literature) in the context of much longer term trends.000 years in this ice age era warming cycle. are shown. Jupiter and Saturn have a 60 year cycle. due to Jupiter gravity influences. This is consistent with the current measurements that the Milankovitch eccentricity is decreasing.e. Earth and Venus (when Jupiter zigs. closer to the sun (warmer) at its extreme aphelion (cold) points. This decreasing eccentricity results in the force of gravity from the sun increasing AND the energy from solar insolation increasing.iii) In addition Jupiter and Saturn exhibit nominal 913 or 973 year orbital cycles in eccentricity. polar bears and people have survived these cycles in the past so they probably will in the future also.
g. then Jupiter went from more eccentric to less eccentric orbits.) but every 120 years it goes from closer. See Figure ?? Longer term (5kYrs) it seems to be flat relative to Earth. In general fast warming should occur when both Jupiter and Saturn are in warming trends (e. This is probably related to the decreasing Earth tilt as the Earth tops up its fuel tank with energyand so spins better/straighter like a faster top) Wobble Theory 13. i.e. (either by changes in their eccentricity towards less eccentricity.g. which is currently in a less eccentric(Milankovitch eccentricity getting more circular) mode thus resulting in an increase in the solar insolation over a cycle. and very long term (millions of years) the Earth and Venus seem to be in synchronization for changes in eccentricity relative to the sun (see Fig 1. 2009) Page 122 of 151 . & the other is not.warming to further away–cooling relative to the Earth. but also an increase in the integrated solar gravity. or changes in the Earth eccentricity (i. to more eccentric (cooling) in 1998/2003 or possibly 60 years later (depending on the 60 year cycle peak) In the 1000 year Earth temperature chart note the changes in direction of the Earth temperatures in the 1365 and 1700 time frames when first Saturn. It has gone or will go.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 or that they are linked?) The Saturn ~1000yr eccentricity cycle went from more eccentric to less eccentric (warming) in about 1365.e. Slower warming would happen when only one (e. Finally there is the ~240year variations in Venus’ orbit. global warming) . further demonstrating the impact that the two major planets have on the rest of the solar system. The third big factor in this equation is the Earth distance to the sun. These are more multiples of the 60 year Jupiter-Saturn resonance.e. Earth becoming more eccentric and moving closer to both Jupiter and Saturn. staying closer to the Earth and increasing the force and energy from gravity. Jupiter from 2003 to 2224) is in the less eccentric mode. Fast cooling should be when both are in more eccentric modes. 1696 thru 1998). thus allowing the increased energy from the less eccentric Earth orbit to dominate the Earthly temperature (i. ( Aug.
Needless to say it is possible to make a fearless prediction that at least an 1. The coincidence of 3 low point data point within a few hundred years of 1690AD. This just happens to coincide with the ~7500 year cycle that comes out of the Ice Core frequency analysis curve (see Fig 1g above – this frequency analysis needs to be redone in a much finer detail to give better hints as to what orbital cycles to look for. and ~ 3500BC and 5600BC points to a combination of two or three cycles almost coinciding. Not exactly scientific proof. Wobble Theory 13. but certainly enticing hints. 6500. 12. during Mankind’s History (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) 10. 2009) Page 123 of 151 .800 year warming cycle (1/2 of a 3600 year cycle. ¼ of a 7500 year cycle or the first half of 2-900 year cycles) began in 1630. Global Warming Causes for the last 12. 1690 or 1780.000 year temperature chart (GISP2 with Hadley measurements for the last 150 years) shows that there were ~17 periods when the temperature changed by 1. The 11000 year Solanki sunspot reconstruction data clearly shows a 7300 year cycle from 5615BC through 1685 or 1780 AD. ( Aug.5K years etc. It is also noted that there are other ice core temperature frequency peaks in the same time frames.e. This could be determined from analysis of the individual planet orbits by ephemeris programs that go back beyond 3000BC the limit of Alcyone and JPL Horizons etc.).000 Year Observations and Speculation: The 10. that in itself is composed of several nominal 3600 year cycles. is NOT at all unusual. It will necessary to identify each of these causes to be able to predict future temperature cycles on earth.000 years. (isn’t it a funny coincidence that multiples of 30 year Saturn cycles separate these temperature bottom points!) and possibly a 7200-7500 year (2 x 3600yrs) cycle. 9000. – i. This is reinforced by a similar 7500 year cycle in the Vostok and EPICA temperature charts. It is speculated that this is probably a longer term eccentricity variation in the Jupiter or Saturn orbits or some combination or resonance thereof.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 7. The increase from 1700 to 2000.5 to 2 degrees over a 200-300 year time period.
or if the 41000 years is a planetary eccentricity cycle that creates a longer term resonance. What is long term trend for earth – compare to Zachos. Logically the Jupiter warming cycle (i.86 year cycles.e. Make long term trend chart.Earth eccentric on 41Kyr cycles.000 years ago on the tilt cycle or ~40.5 times= 100Kyr cycle. However there is a very real possibility that the 100Kyr cycle is Wobble Theory 13.000 and next 30.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 8. On an even longer term we need to look towards longer term eccentricity cycles and long term variations in Solar output and variations external to the solar system. Is there a 41Ky Jupiter cycle? It is speculated that the Jupiter orbit.000 years ago on the earth eccentricity cycle.g.000+ years ago (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) VERY LONG TERM Speculation Now add to this that the speculated long term resonance cycle is 41. and if they can coordinate to generate the 41000 year resonance. which should also be readily proven by Laskar & Ghil million year Jupiter and Saturn orbital data & eccentricities. at which time we are approximately at the end of the 405. we are now in the cooling half which should continue for another 10000 years plus.000 years ago.000 years ago at the GISP/Vostok temperature peaks.000 years ago. cosmic rays & galaxy dust clouds etc.000 years and is responsible for the Earth tilt changes which require additional energy to warm up. Jupiter was becoming less eccentric (releasing potential energy) from 30. Also I would expect the longer term ice ages to coincide with these long term Jupiter/Saturn eccentricity cycles. the 913 or 973 year or ~1000 year variations. although it doesn’t seem to have been published.000. Is there a 20Ky wobble (precession) that related to either Jupiter or Saturn or something. & then be followed by the next warming half of the 41000 year resonance cycle.000 years to confirm first the lengths of their long term eccentricity cycles. Is the 100Ky a mathematical creation due to moving of 41Ky cycle. than those produced by Laskar & Ghil. contains 11. (as opposed to the current becoming more eccentric (storing potential energy0 for the last 3000 years) should coincide with a major temperature direction change point i. maximum potential energy) is at a positive latitude like GISP2. such that it will wobble out of the 41Ky dominance to the 2.Source 1. This 41Ky cycle began at the depths of the ice age some 30. the earth eccentricity reversal which was ~30.e. 2009) Page 124 of 151 . Given that the pattern for the ice age reversal is eerily similar (but 10 times longer) to the pattern for the Maunder minimum to current warming pattern (1600 to 2000) caused by the 854/913 year eccentricity sub-cycles I would expect similar causes but on the next largest scale. a 41000 year (tilt causing) cycle. the warming half ended ~10. Ideally since Jupiter forces Earth eccentricity then the Jupiter reversal should also coincide. 26000 years ago for GISP & a little later for Vostok & Epica. The paths traced by the solar system and galaxy rotations and the respective distances may result in even longer term cycles. ( Aug. e.000 to 1. This speculation should be able to be confirmed by plotting out the Jupiter and Saturn orbits and distances relative to Earth for the last 50.000 to 10. Speculating on Global Warming variations for 10. and probably the causes for the 100K (120 and 95KYr) and 405Kyr cycles. Even the fact that warming began first in the northern hemisphere argues for Jupiter or Saturn being the cause since their peak cold point (furthest distance. Laskar in France and Ghil at UCLA should already have this data available. 10 times 41K = 413000 cycle.000 year eccentricity cycle. but be opposite with. Longer term warming.
and to reinforce the original Milankovitch theory by eliminating the lack of sufficient energy to cause Ice Ages problem. he failed to include gravity and stored potential energy. tilt & insolation induced 1 month Moon induced cycles 1 day axis rotation cycles So.5 or 3 times the 41Ky tilt cycle. and it appears that Jupiter is the perturbing force that causes these (They zig when Jupiter zags in order to maintain the conservation of gravity energy. ( Aug. to apply a force that results in the Wobble Theory 13. which used to dominate several million years ago (Zachos 2001). I do not have access to a long term Jupiter and Saturn eccentricity cycle or distance relative to Earth plots but they must exist since Laskar (1990 & 2003) and Varadi Runnegar & Ghil at UCLA 2001 have generated multi-million year eccentricity cycles for the inner planets.000 times the . or is it actual variations from galaxy formation and/or Universe formation? Or maybe cyclical universe formation cycles every 30? Billion years???? Question: if Suns and galaxies radiate energy uniformly. 2009) Page 125 of 151 . In theory it should be possible to calculate the stored potential energy and the Gravitational energy that is some 20 to 200.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 simply a resonance between Saturn and Jupiter since the 100K and the 120K Earth eccentricity is 2. some very long term open questions Where do the changes in background radiation fit in? Is it background from rotating through spiral arms of neighboring (or our own) galaxies. Apparently we have the 100K Earth eccentricity and the 41K tilt and the ~20K precession cycles all interacting to give the long term “ice age” era Milankovitch cycle phenomenon. solar insolation and gravity induced 3 month Earth seasonal cycles.solar insolation level and see if it is sufficient to result in the difference between ice ages and warm periods in order to provide credence to this John Dodds Wobble Theory.) At the same time that tilt goes from min to max as the planetary positions gravity which cause tilt ALSO result in the release of potential energy (due to the relative distance to the planet).4Million Yr eccentricity cycles (6 x 405K sub cycles) 405Ky cycles as long term Earth (& other planets) eccentricity. & the universe is expanding.5 tilt cycles?) 41Ky cycles as tilt caused by sub eccentricity planetary sub-cycles? 19-22K Precession cycles (planetary causes? Half a tilt cycle?) 7500 and 3600 year cycles related to multiples of the ~900 yr Jupiter and Saturn cycles? 900 year sub eccentricity long term Jupiter and Saturn resonance cycles 60 year Jupiter and Saturn 5:2 resonance sub eccentricity cycles 30 year Saturn sub-cycles 12 year Jupiter sub-cycles (& solar insolation sun-spot cycles?) 1 year Earth annual eccentricity orbital cycles. We should be able to identify 42Million year Mars eccentricity cycles (A Jupiter chart would be nice Drs Ghil/Laskar) 2. doesn’t the radiated energy also radiate back inwards to create a very high density of dark energy (gravity & mag fields) in the volumetric center of the universe where there are no galaxies? Does this high density of energy act just like a sun in a solar system. (4 x 100K cycles) 100K Earth eccentricity cycles (2. However Milankovitch only used solar insolation energy. precession.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 components to travel in orbits that expand and contract eccentrically? Reality is Figure 8a. There seems to be a 2MY (or 5 – 400Kyear sub cycles) .6MY.) of nearest distances from the sun.e.6MY and 4. ( Aug.e. 2009) Page 126 of 151 . i.6MY. Five Million Years of Earthly Eccentricity AND Climate Change Note the periods when the 400KY Earth Eccentricity cycle reached its points of least extreme aphelion (i. the points at 0. closest levels (~.004 eccentricity. 2. resonance cycle impacting this cycle Also notice that the patterns of Earth climate are similar in Wobble Theory 13.
Given that each lobe in the 4. interacts with a Jupiter orbit of 11. but where on the temperature scale does the average fall relative to the freezing point of water. However. 2009) Page 127 of 151 . It never gets cold enough to freeze water. (cycles measured from the extreme bottom points (least eccentricity.6MY and 4. then this explains why the return or loss of the potential energy. The 400KY transition 5th lobes are centered on 0.000 year cycle. Wobble Theory 13. separated by the fifth. but longer.e. one ice age).6 MY before the present. Fannegar. At cold points water freezes & ice builds. an analysis shows that starting from the left (the present) there are 4 lobes in each ~400. ( Aug. Lets say that the average temperature is 18C. This is the same pattern that can be seen in the Jupiter and Saturn latitude above the ecliptic plane.5KY cycles for a 2. Note however that if you look at the 11MY data generated by Laskar (Fig 1i). The rotation period can be determined once the individual orbit durations (or eccentricity cycles) are known. The next one should be centered on 1. associated with more eccentricity.e.4MY cycle.4MY cycle.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 that there are similar patterns to the climate in that there are extreme cold periods (double bottoms) with relatively warmer periods for the . and a Saturn 30 year to create the 60 year resonance.) The lobes rotate through the standard cycle for two planets of differing orbital duration rotating thru the time cycle Head & shoulders. The question is NOT where is the warming energy coming from. The pattern in the 5 million years of Earth eccentricity (data from Varadi. the next chart of longer term eccentricity show that these cycles are actually SIX 4. warmer winters). (i. Ghil. This is evidence that a similar resonance . high left shoulder Head & shoulders high head Head & shoulders high right shoulder Reduced Double top. UCLA 2001) is that there are ~400. is responsible for the longer ice ages. It’s just a matter of when. Implying that ALL the Greenland ice melted during the last warm cycle. All the ice will eventually melt. but not mountain top.5KY cycle is somewhat similar in the change in the relative height/distance away from the Sun.000 year cycles (bottom to bottom) each consisting of 4 lobes.5MY on either side. or transition lobe which is symmetric and includes a 5th sub lobe itself. at least at the GISP2 site which is high. cooler summers. 2. The question is NOT is there more or less energy added or subtracted to cause ice ages. Where an Earth orbit of 1 yr. it is when does it arrive.4My in the future (to the left). It should be noted that the GISP2 ice cores in Greenland ONLY have one freeze cycle (i.6My.86 year. In the Eccentricity curves from Dr Ghil et al research group at UCLA. ) result in enough cold over time to freeze the water & keep it until the next freeze cycle thus resulting in ice ages. then instead of a 2MY cycle it is easier to get 6 400KY cycles to result in a 2. & the range is +/-20C. Does a wider energy variation ( warmer summer cooler winter. or the rise or loss of temperature in each ice age cycle is approximately the same. Now lets say that the range decreases to +/-15C due to the Earth orbit eccentricity getting smaller.
The 5 million year charts. so the ice melts.000 year cycles (like the tilt cycle. The analogy is to put a glass of ice cubes in a warm room.000 year cycles dating from the present to about 1. and are generated by the merging and varying of the interference/reinforcement of Jupiter and Saturn eccentricity cycles.000 year cycles. It is speculated that the 41000 year cycles tend to be shifting to result in the nominal 100. The arctic ice is melting.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Unless we are in a significantly different cycle. in the same manner that shorter term cycles (30 and 60 year and 854/913 year cycles. ( Aug. Given that there is no detailed orbital data readily available then it is difficult to confirm that long term cycles coincide with orbital cycles. 2009) Page 128 of 151 . 2000-2030 …). but the temperature is still above the ice melting point.like in Antarctica where there are multiple ice age cycles) Its just a matter of when. The ice melts. Wobble Theory 13. before then. If you turn on an air conditioner.000 or 120.000 years ago and then 41.000. all the ice in Greenland should melt this time also (except maybe on some mountain tops. Given the temperature (warm phase) the ice will continue to melt even if the Earth is already in a cooling phase leading to the next ice age. It is also speculated that Elliott wave’s 8 movements (5 up 3 down) are the same as 4 x 41000 year cycles. show that there are nominal 100. but slower. the room is getting cooler (1940-70.
The 1998 peak may not be exceeded for 450+ years. So. we should peak again in 2057 or 8.) BUT this time we have also had a reversal in the 913/973 year Saturn cycle towards the cooling side.000. and at some point there will be a 30 year not 60 year cycle as we switch to the next 900 year series.…2120. 1880. followed by the second half of the 60 year resonance cycle with irregular warming to 2057-8. In other words except for the Jupiter 12 year fluctuations we should bottom in temperature in about 30 years or 2028. cold). Then the Venus 240 year cycle (which just happen to be a multiple of the 60 year resonance cycle) Venus turned warmer in 1970. There will be a warming bump in the 30 year down trend due to the 12 Year Jupiter cycle. Normally you would expect the nominal 60 year cycle to be somewhat similar to the previous cycle (see the Hadley temp data in Fig 4b. high 2000. 1942. somewhat similar to the previous cycles. high 2224.1 Prediction for 50 Years to 2060 First there is the nominal 60 year resonance cycle combined with the 12yr (Jupiter) and 30 year (Saturn) orbital cycles. After 2057-8 we will again get a 30 year cooling followed by a 30 year warming. 2057. The next 500 years involves first the 60 year resonance cycle highs. 2360. and 405. The temperature peaked in 1998. or even a failure to get to a new high temperature.000 Years (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) 9. when both the annual orbits of Jupiter and Saturn are getting closer to Earth and providing warming input. with no major changes expected. Fearless Foolhardy PREDICTIONS for 60.000 year cycles). there is the question of how significant is the downturn in 913/973 year Saturn eccentricity as opposed to the continuing long term increase of the Earths warming eccentricity (41.000 and 100. Wobble Theory 13. say about 2018 thru 2023. and then warm up through 2057-8. 2240. & warmer lows. Jupiter= low 1696 (minimum energy.2 Prediction for 500 Years to 2500. low in ~2700 Saturn (less significant than Jupiter)= low 1355. 2009) Page 129 of 151 . 500 and 25. It is more likely to be lower given the strength of the down turning 913/973 year Saturn cycle relative to the 60 year resonance strength. but definitely NOT significantly higher – more like a double top in the temperature.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 9. 1998. when it turns cooler until 2230 Then the Jupiter and Saturn 913 year cycles and when they will hit. cooler highs. I would guess that the 2057 peak could be equal to or even slightly lower than the 1998 peak. low 2328 And the Earth/Sun continuing to get less eccentric. ( Aug. for 120 years through 2090. 2300. Then a cooling for 6 years to 2028 as the potential energy peaks with Earth furthest from the Jupiter Saturn resonance. 9. 2180.
1 is the period from 3500BC through 1300BC in GISP2 (Egyptian Dynasties) 2 is the period from the 6200BC bottom. not distance. the downturn 4000 years ago was not significant. then rises rapidly again for 450+ years. where the cycles are similar but not exactly the same.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 9a shows the current 1000 years with projections for about 450 years.) In the case of EPICA. then we should get a cooling/sideways correction for the next 300+ years or so. of Jupiter and Saturn orbits) What this predicts is that the current cooling pause from 1998 may last through say 2328 when Saturn again changes to the warming mode (but in the mean time Jupiter will hit a peak in 2224 Wobble Theory 13.000 year range. before we resume the warming cycle. These are the two most recent ~3600/3800 year cycles (4x 913/973 years) in the GISP and EPICA/Vostok modern warm era between ice ages. The temperature goes up rapidly for ~450+ years (with appropriate increases in civilization). This is probably due to a longer term cycle on the order of 7500 years that related to the Latitude. The Saturn 900 year cycle turn for warming may initiate it in 2328. 2009) Page 130 of 151 . again in 3 waves. the 913/973 year cycles are dictating the turning points.000 year (tilt) warming cycle 8200 years ago In both cases we started near the temperature low in the most recent 12. ( Aug. I would expect that since we have gone through the warming phase from 1600 through 2000. (start of farming) which is complicated by the start of the 41.000 years. in three waves.e. There are two possible recent parallel situations that we can compare to. to the top of the 10. than the two 3600+ year cycles for GISP2. (i. (it is more like a single 7500 year cycle to the 1600 bottom. pauses for 400 or so years to return to the previous top of the first or 3rd wave.
It will be during this warming that the Arctic ice cap and the GISP2 ice should disappear or at least melt significantly.60). as opposed to Vostok/Epica. in 2742BC we get a cooling input as Saturn changes cycles to cooling.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 so the 2224 thru 2328 cooling may be dramatic! Comparable to 1000AD to 1600 or the 2200 to 2000BC time frame shown in Figure 9b below If this comparison is reasonable. before it really gets colder for the following 200+ years. Also the melting of ice is dependant on the absolute temperature. until the next Saturn top circa 2913 (2000+ 913 years) and the Jupiter top circa 3137 (2224+913 years +/. NOT on if the temperature is warming or cooling. implying that all previous cycles melted. An ice cube will melt in a glass even if the air conditioner is cooling the room temperature down. that the cycles are basically dictated by the Jupiter eccentricity cycles from Ch 4.000 years ago. Remember that GISP2 ONLY has one ice age cycle of ice evident. In 1950BC Jupiter again turns to warming as its eccentricity Wobble Theory 13. 2009) Page 131 of 151 . Note on figure 9b. The northwest passage may finally be open for shipping. if someone hasn’t invented teletransportation by then. in 2300BC Jupiter turns to cooling initiating a 300+ year cold spell (which might very well be comparable to what we are going to get for the next few hundred years starting in 2224AD). but it is still above freezing. then we should expect to be in a slight cooling (maybe slight warming) plateau for the next hundred years (comparable to the 2300BC to 2200BC period. ( Aug.2. comparable to 2200BC through 2000BC But then there should be a significant warming which will extend up to but probably not beyond the peak temperatures experienced 10-12. From 2800BC to 2300BC Jupiter is warming the Earth.
60 yrs) Saturn turns cold again initiating a brief cold spell. While Wobble Theory identifies 60 year resonance and 900+ year eccentricity sub-cycles.000 and eventually 405. III to 14000 yBP. In addition to solar insolation.000 years ago that also ended in a quick temperature turnaround when the Earth previously his its 405. II to 1780.000 to 350.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 changes again.) Finally. through the peak in ~11000 yBP. Such longer term cycles are hinted at but not very well documented in the literature. and also Gravity from the planets PLUS there is the impact of converting temperature energy into planetary potential energy and back as the Earth moves to and fro in its variable eccentric orbit. (attention Drs Ghil & Laskar. If so then the next warming from 2328 (Saturn) and ~2700 (Jupiter) may never exceed our current 2000 top. The Wobble Theory is basically an extended Expanded Milankovitch Theory.3 Prediction for 25. it also speculates that longer term Jupiter and Saturn orbital eccentricity cycles (hinted at in Fig 4. warmest winters) may not be sufficient to allow the accumulation of too much ice. This scenario agrees with the Berger (1978) hypothesis that we are already heading into the next cooling leading to the minimum eccentricity point. ii to 1910.) is very similar in shape (not scale) if not identical to the 5 wave pattern as we come out of the last ice age ~24000 years before the present (BP). & V to 11000 yBP on the Vostok data). 2009) Page 132 of 151 . with attention drawn to the Epica and Vostok curves. Confirmation of this linkage should be relatively easy to prove by identifying the Jupiter and Saturn longer term orbital cycles and their resonances.3) or orbital resonance cycles are responsible for the 41. The longer term estimates bring the Milankovitch Theory into play. there is the force and energy of Gravity from the sun. It is noted that the 5 wave Elliott Wave pattern from 1610 to 2000 (Wave 1: 1620-1650. but in 1388BC Saturn kicks in with a last gasp warming cycle to kick the GISP2 temperature up to its peak in about 1350BC.000 year cycle. but the more dominant Jupiter is still warming through ~1480. Similar 5 Wobble Theory 13.000 years temperature pattern.000 year tilt cycles (it requires energy from somewhere to change the tilt!) and for the 100. 9.000 eccentricity cycle closest approach to the Sun. then a wave IV correction to come and a wave V to a new high temperature. Its major deficiency was that Earth eccentricity lacked sufficient energy to be responsible for the range of temperature drops in ice ages. Apparently (according to the lack of a “G” at the 350. which will agree with the Milankovitch timing. iii to 1940. both around the sun and also with respect to the planets. IV to 12500yBP. AND the temperature reversal was very quick.000 Years An alternate possibility to continued warming and cooling for a few more thousand years is that the peaks of 10. mostly Jupiter.4MY etc (& longer) Earth eccentricity cycles. the 41. ( Aug. Milankovitch basically said that the solar insolation and Earth eccentricity cycles and Tilt and Precession cycles caused ice ages.makes sense since we would be at the point of minimum eccentricity and the temperature range (coolest summers.2 & 4. figure 1b shows the 1000 year GISP2 northern hemisphere temperature pattern. 2. We may already be in a longer term cooling comparable to the cooling from 420. In 1780BC (+/.000 BP time (Fig 3. not the normal 100.000 and 12000 years a go.000 year.2a) there was NO major glaciation at this time so an ice age was missed???. Current theory says that Jupiter’s eccentricity causes Earth’s eccentricity. Figure 1e shows the 50. were the absolute temperature peaks during this warming cycle.000 years. v to 1999 . iv to 1970. III 1780-1999 as sub-waves i 1780-1880. (Wave I 24000 yBP to II 21500 yBP.
The Elliott Wave implication is that similar but larger/longer scale causes are behind both patterns. and calculated the temperature projections for every location on Earth. N. temperature. and that we should be “correcting” for the next Wave IV for 90 if not a few hundred years. Elliott Wave Theory of stock market movements. 2009) Page 133 of 151 .John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 wave Elliott Wave patterns are also observable throughout the history of temperatures (e. Given that apparently the weather and climate is dictated by the forces of gravity from the various planets. because some enterprising grad student or weather department will have programmed the exact planetary orbits and precession locations. Mark Twain’s major complaint.ElliotWave. The associated change in gravity forces. & depressions) which then impacts the expression of this as stock market values (manias and recessions and depressions) as shown in the R. All this speculation will be academic.g. which doesn’t seem too likely at this time. This then identifies a physical basis for the socio-economic theory of Robert Prechter (www. ( Aug.com) . pressure etc impacts the sociological effects on people (i.e. Unless they invent anti-gravity. then it seems safe to say that no-one is ever going to be able to do something about the weather or climate. see Fig 9b above). Wobble Theory 13. happiness. This adds further credence to the idea that 2000 was a “top” in the rise of the temperature.
there would be no photon visible evidence (i. PLUS the gravity forces of suns and black holes etc relative to other suns and black holes (i. together comprise all visible mass and energy & dark energy & dark matter. then lets speculate: 1. high gravity. We also know that inside suns we can accumulate matter to create elements from hydrogen through carbon and oxygen to uranium and beyond.but not popular recently) Given that all this mass. the 8. We know that in misnamed black holes (i. ie we would appear to be in an expanding universe.e. 2009) Page 134 of 151 . is it also the name of the game for the galaxy. like a photon? 3. gamma ray. and the universe? 6. as they travel from the sun to the earth. x-ray. Could it be that just like the Earth gets to its (farthest) aphelion point & then reverses direction with no apparent cause (it’s actually a balance of Gravity and outward velocity translated into potential energy). Gravity and magnetic field forces are essentially invisible to photon based telescopes (i. ( Aug. potential energy say from the hypothetical original center/site of the big bang) PLUS the energy from these objects that is traveling between objects (e.does this require low density low gravity locations or exactly what conditions?) So how do we go from an electron left over after the positron annihilates to a proton or hydrogen atom – Is this the Higgs Boson?. light ray telescopes etc). 2.1. but travelling at the speed of light. Since cyclicality is the name of the game for global warming and the solar system. PLUS all the other stuff in open space going from mass to mass etc). Does the Universe just expand and contract just like an eccentric planet orbit does? Given that we are apparently in about the middle (?) of the blowing apart phase. John Dodds postulation of a continuously expanding and contracting Universe (by no means an original idea!!. Not sure what happens to time in a contracting universe (I don’t know the math well enough.e. mass is created.presumably from a confluence of energy waves!!. Other speculations (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) 10. Wobble Theory 13. I leave it to the future physicists to solve this one. This one is way out there. We also know that electron /positron pairs pop into existence all over the place (i. Lets hypothesize that the known masses and light energy.e. I.e. energy and forces is out there in space and is cyclical based on the orbits and distances and times between the objects.e.e.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 10. then does the total universe also get to its aphelion (actually ap-universe point) point(s) (not necessarily all at the same time??) and then reverse to compress back in towards the peri-universe point (closest point to the center). Is gravity just another form of energy transport. 5. high energy density locations) we can convert mass into energy (stars/masses go in. then I don’t see why intelligence couldn’t survive in a contracting universe either.do they come flying out of black holes also? OR is the Boson a consequence of slowing a protons energy package down to zero from the speed of light?) 4.g. high energy gamma-rays go out the top & bottom) No doubt magnetic fields and gravity fields also come out.after all I’m just a “dumb” engineer.5 minutes of light photons and gravity gravitons & magnetic fields magnetrons. gain of potential energy by each mass) that travel in the reverse direction was possible. but it seems like a non-problem) . but since man seems to survive on an Earth that is reversing from going out to coming back towards the sun.
Fig 10a Clearly sunspots correlate better to VOSTOK than to GISP2.g) is related to Saturn’s latitude. 2009) Page 135 of 151 . This chapter identifies data but can NOT yet draw definitive conclusions. The Solanki calculation of sunspots for the last 11. but is NOT the major cause. not a long term trend.. Perhaps Jupiter reaching an aphelion point?? As opposed to a combined effect from Jupiter. since the 3600 year cycle ending in 2800BC is a very sharp drop and rebound. Also the Earth’s 6200BC (8200BP) cycle bottom is only evident as the obvious V at 6200BC. ( Aug. then it is probable that this is also an influence on the cause of sunspots and the solar insolation which correlates time-wise (Milankovitch cycles) with the Earth temperature. of sunspots is given below Wobble Theory 13.000 years is given below. Saturn. Earth and Venus which should dominate the planetary gravity inputs. A chart Fig 10b. Perhaps the 7500/7200 year cycle from the frequency/cycle analysis (fig 1. SUNSPOTS Given that the gravity from the major planets is responsible for the Earth’s temperature.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 10. NOT as an absolute bottom like the 5300BC bottom.2.
Note the growing double top pattern on every second Jupiter plus Saturn latitude e.a 60 year cycle or two since we will be running on 30 years transition intervals at that time. 2080 and 2130. then due in 2190). If the Maunder minimum was in say 1675. which as the cycle continues should peak around the year 2224. the secondary peaks every 60 years will start getting stronger AND the number of sunspots will start to decrease in its 854 year cycle. ( Aug. when Jupiter reaches its least eccentric point in the current 854 year latitude cycle.g. The early period 1650-1750 show the 30 year cycles. Do they also exist for sunspots? A second observation is the declining pattern of every second top. Wobble Theory 13. This will peak or actually bottom around 2224. Clearly the Earthly 60 year resonance temperature peaks can be observed at the bottom of the chart. Observations on the Latitude of Jupiter and Saturn on the sun. and the increasing (slightly) pattern of the alternate tops. then the “next” maunder minimum will be in 1675+854= 2529 +/. This clearly correlates to the same pattern in the Saturn chart of distance to Earth. The correlation to sunspots is that the early period is Maunder minimum time and minimum sunspots. the later period 2050 through 2150 shows the very clear 60 year cycles.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 A chart fig 10c of the Latitude angles of Jupiter and Saturn on the SUN is given below for the period from 1650 to 2200. The later period is increasing larger numbers of sunspots. Clearly there is a rotating pattern associated with the Jupiter/Saturn movement through the 854/913 year cycles. (see Figure 4. 2009) Page 136 of 151 .2d) the pattern will reverse direction.
Venus & Earth due to their relative closeness to the sun are a surprising 2nd and 4th . Obviously the 11. with Saturn being third.86 years.e. 2009) Page 137 of 151 .5 degrees every 30 years. which in itself is probably short term. the current popular theory of magnetic field disturbances on the sun) The rotation of the sunspots is a combination of the Suns rotation and the fact that Jupiter (& Saturn and Earth and Venus) all have latitude transitions whereby they go from being above or below the solar system plane. leading to the Latitude chart and the 60 years resonance cycles shown above. ( Aug. I. Jupiter goes 1+ degrees above and below the Sun-Earth Ecliptic plane every 11.e.e. hydrogen ions) in a dynamo effect (that is dependant on the angle of incidence) to cause magnetic field disturbances that show up as sunspots.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 10d is a plot of the gravity forces from the planets acting on the sun. The mechanism for causing sunspots is apparently similar to what has previously been postulated for the cause of the Earth & Jupiter magnetic field. Saturn goes above and below by 2. shows that Jupiter is the obvious major source. The chart of the relative magnitude of the gravity forces impacting the sun from the various planetary eccentricity cycles. The variable forces of gravity interact with the ions or charged particles in the Sun (i.e. No doubt Earth & Venus & Mercury also have shorter term impacts which result in solar sunspot “noise”. (i. BUT it probably can result in intermittent solar flares which can be very dangerous when Wobble Theory 13. I.86 year Jupiter orbit comes nearest to forcing the nominal but erratic 11 year sunspot cycle.
Note that using daily data might result in more extreme values in some instances Note the 60 year cycles. And that there is little difference between the 12 year Jupiter cycles and the 60 year resonance cycles. 2009) Page 138 of 151 . Figure 10e is the TOTAL of the Forces acting on the Sun from the planets from 1600 to 2200 using weekly data. caused by the Jupiter/Saturn resonance.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 you are directly in the path. ( Aug. Wobble Theory 13.
see if he can prove it. there is an equal and opposite reaction form the more massive sun.e. Also there is a 20%+ variation in the gravity force acting on the Sun every 6 years or half cycle. These are when Jupiter and Saturn are in the phase where they are moving away ( from perihelion towards aphelion) from the Sun & Earth resulting in cooler Earth temperatures & apparently less force impacts on the Sun. which in theory should result in fewer sunspots (i. Remember also that this chart does NOT include any impacts from increasing or decreasing potential energy.e. A nice theory or explanation. 2009) Page 139 of 151 . Note the 18 years of less energy after each of the 1940 & 1999 peaks. which may impact/decrease the ability to create sunspots. the Sun temperature would be cooling slightly. i. Solanki et al.e. would also be increasing relative to Jupiter & Saturn. now). ( Aug. i. (again weekly data so more detailed peaks might be evident in more detailed data). Given the fact that as Jupiter and Saturn move away. Wobble Theory 13. I’ll let Dr. but the 1975 peak is also significant.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Fig 10f is a more detailed view from 1940 to 2025 of the sum of the forces acting on the sun. and the correlation of Sunspots to Earth temperature. since he knows a lot more than I do about it. then the potential energy of the SUN. The 1940 and 1999 peaks are still evident. quiet periods like now.
The arbitrary SUM curve of Jupiter’s latitude plus 10% of the latitudes of Saturn & Venus (Earth is zero by definition) follows the dominant Jupiter forces. Note the frequent noise impacts of Mercury. which correspond to the duration of the orbit. not the sunspots themselves or their impact on solar insolation variations. This would confirm the old theory (not mine) that Jupiter is primarily responsible for the sunspots. And if the 854 year cycle (see fig 10c speculations) corresponds in more detail to the number of sunspots. 2009) Page 140 of 151 . however the cause is the gravity effects. Probably it would make sense to plot the gravity incidence angles against the sunspot locations and use the plane defined by the sun’s rotation as the reference. ( Aug. Similarly the not quite so frequent noise from Venus. from 1995 to 2016. (The 10% choice is an attempt to factor in the relative strength of the forces) Note the effect Saturn has on the SUM curve in 1999 vs 2011. You could also compare the combined effects of gravity to see if this corresponds to the very variable 11 plus years sunspot cycles.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 10g is the Latitudes (above & below the Sun Earth ecliptic plane). It should be feasible to do a more detailed analysis and compare the latitude angles and the various forces to the number and timing and location of the sunspots. Next check to see if the Sun’s Wobble Theory 13. This reinforces the 1999 lower angle peak in forces and the correlation of sunspots to Earth temperature.
or be prepared for electrical grid transients). AND if one is going to hit the Earth. driven by Jupiter plus Saturn. & finally check to see if the 22 year magnetic field flipping can correlate with the angle of incidence flipping from north to south. except maybe for a very short term flare hitting us directly. Unfortunately. you should be able to predict when and where a sunspot or flares should occur. or maybe just Jupiter alone since twice 11. correlate to the various planetary gravities and predict future flares and take appropriate protective action (e. You should be able to use the satellites deployed to warn of solar flares to plot past locations. then sunspots no longer have the potential to cause significant impact on Earth temperatures.86 years is closer to a “22” year solar cycle. Wobble Theory 13. if gravity & potential energy is the cause. 2009) Page 141 of 151 . & not relative to the Sun Earth ecliptic plane or to the Jupiter Sun plane. In theory. if you plot the 3D locations of the inner planets relative to the sun. put the Astronauts in the protective room on the space station. given that the forces of gravity on Earth are far stronger than the solar insolation and sunspot induced solar flare energy.g. probably relative to the plane of the Sun’s rotation. ( Aug.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 magnetic field orientation lines up with the rotation axis.
and/or equations to simulate the data./NOAA).John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Chapter 11. 2009) Page 142 of 151 . Confirmation: This paper is mostly conjecture based on limited data and obvious reversal points where energy must by the rules of physics reverse their impacts. be able to handle capabilities identified by a selected group of scientists in anticipation of future needs.000 years into the future. It could produce PDO/ENSO tables similar to tide tables at a minimum. be able to produce charts which can be joined graphically & printed as a single sequence on roll paper printers d. be able to plot at least 256000 data points (vs the current 32000) in a chart c. cyclone and hurricane possibilities etc world wide. 6. 3. Wobble Theory 13. be able to handle large data bases of data points ( e. but especially hurricane/cyclone heat projections and the flawed economic studies. Ephemeris Program There is a need for an ephemeris program with a longer set of data. Fix the NASA/GISS model E software (& the 17 others?) to be able to handle planetary and sun/moon gravity forces and potential energy so that it can again produce viable charts data. Eccentricity & Latitude Data The UCLA team of Dr Ghil et al or Jacques Laskar should be asked to produce eccentricity and latitude data in finer detail (or does it already exist?). The data must include latitude information for all the planets relative to both Earth and the Sun. Jupiter as the biggest dog would be of special interest to identify longer term eccentricity sub cycles. It is suggested that more detailed analyses be done with more finer data (& bigger computers) to confirm the hypotheses. Suggestions for Research (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) 1. for ALL the planets (& any asteroids of large size which will enter the Earth orbit space or may be significant perturbations) for a period of 10 million years BP to a million years into the future. Microsoft Excel Scientific version: Microsoft should be asked to produce a scientific version of Excel (perhaps in gratitude for saving MS from having to pay for CO2 taxes. and latitudes in time should be identified.. perigee. ( Aug. 4. OR Sun/Oracle and the Open Source Software consortium should be paid to create an open source version) This version should by maintained to be compatible with future Office Versions AND a. PDO/ENSO AMO etc Simulations: A weather program that can model the north/south variations in temperatures should be created (perhaps by Colorado St Univ.000 years in the past and 30.g. maps etc that reflect the global temperature etc. millions vs the current 65000) b. This will be used to model and predicts droughts and temperature variation. aphelion and perihelion points. be able to directly export all charts to jpg and pny formats e. be more able to combine multiple (5?) x and y axes on a single chart f. 2. and perhaps to the Sun Jupiter plane. At least 50. This will be used to identify in more detail the transitions from ice ages to warm periods. and which can then be used by the myriad of follow-on scientific research applications. 5. Extreme apogee.
John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
Chapter 12. Summary (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) As indicated in Ch2,, the amount of global warming attributable to GHGs such as water vapor and CO2 is limited to the amount of energy coming into and hence out of the Earth at equilibrium conditions. regardless of the CO2 concentration. At equilibrium which is dictated by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (SBL) the amount of energy that can be transported out by CO2 can not exceed that which is coming in because there is no additional energy available to be transported out by any extra added CO2. This results in extra added CO2 just sitting in the air doing nothing, The proof is that when the air temperature goes down at night then the amount of energy transported out also reduces (eg by 13% for a 10 degree C drop per the ratio of T^4 in the SBL) and some CO2 is then just sitting in the air doing nothing. The idea that the amount of CO2 in the air could continue to cause a larger greenhouse effect, as used in the current Global Warming computer codes, is totally impossible if there is no additional energy available in the air to be transported by added CO2. Figure 12a, shows the Greenhouse Effect, and how it is limited by Temperature equilibrium.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Thus a new explanation for what has caused the recent global warming is needed. It is proposed in this copyrighted John Dodds' Wobble Theory of Global Warming, that the wobbles in the force of gravity from the Sun and planets is responsible for the varying and cyclical amount of energy transferred to the Earth. (see figure on front cover) The energy available from Gravity far exceeds that from solar insolation, the only energy sources used in the current computer codes and by IPCC, thus invalidating their results that blame CO2 for the warming. The energy from the force of gravity, acting on the Earth, primarily from the combined impact of the 60 year resonance orbital cycle of five 12 year Jupiter orbits, two 30 year Saturn orbits and sixty, one year Earth orbits, results in a 30 year cooling cycle as the Earth moves further away from Jupiter and Saturn at the energy peak or peak negative latitude (energy is also transferred from heat to potential energy relative to the sun and planets), followed by a 30 year warming cycle as the Earth approaches the maximum gravity energy peak and the potential energy is converted back to mechanical heat energy. There are also obvious 12 year sub-cycles caused by Jupiter’s orbit relative to the Earth. Figure 12b, shows how orbits and eccentricity and latitudes result in variations in the energy input to the Earth over time.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Figure 12c, A plot of the Earth temperature and the planetary forces, shows the evidence of the 12 year Jupiter cycles and the 60 year resonance cycles on the Earthly temperature.
This plot identifies -The 12 year cycles due to Jupiter’s orbital eccentricity & Earth orbit interactions -The 30 year interactions due to Saturn’s orbit -The 60 year Jupiter/Saturn resonance interactions, readily evident in the temperature plot - The short term temperature “noise” induced by Venus - A longer term base temperature rise due to the Suns orbital variations. The correlation of peak negative Latitudes, or angles below the Sun Earth elliptic plane, and the points of minimum distance/maximum force and energy to Earth (or perigees) results in being able to plot the latitude angles as an arbitrary Peak Temperature Timing Indicator (PTTI), all derived exclusively from orbital data, to determine when and where the peak temperatures should occur. A plot of Energy from gravity from these sources shows the same results. The cycles of the Jupiter/Saturn 60 year resonance interaction ends with the Earth reaching a near 60 year peak in warming as shown in the recent history of global temperature with the 1880, 1940, and 1998/9 peaks. in the following Plot of Latitudes and the combined GISP2 and Hadley temperatures on Earth. This orbital data coincides with the Earthly temperature data, indicating a probable cause and effect when combined with the Wobble Theory interpretation of the Laws of Physics.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 This figure 12d shows these and many more historical temperature peaks dating back to 1400AD,
The next energy cycle will therefore result in global cooling from 1998 to about 2028, so far confirmed by the temperature data that has been decreasing since the peak in 1999, with 12 year Jupiter bumps, then warming to the next peak in about 2057 or 58.. The cooling then warming
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 sequence has to do with two factors, first the fact that immediately after a peak, the Earth starts to recede from the Jupiter/Saturn mass resulting in less gravity energy, AND as the Earth recedes then the potential energy relative to the Jupiter/Saturn mass begins to increase thus taking energy from the Earth (temperature) and putting the energy into planetary potential energy which is not measurable as temperature. In 30 years, the Jupiter/Saturn mass will reach its apogee (furthest point) from Earth and begin to get closer, then returning the stored potential energy to mechanical/velocity energy, and increasing the gravity energy as the two get closer for the next 30 years, through about 2057. Due to the declining influence from the cooling Saturn eccentricity orbit, both these 60 year peaks may very well be below the 1999 peak. The main reason for these energy changes is Jupiter's eccentric orbit. As Jupiter gets more eccentric, all the other planets get less eccentric. -First Jupiter results in every second Saturn orbit being drawn in towards the Jupiter resulting in a 60 year eccentricity sub-cycle, & likewise Saturn will draw Jupiter out further every sixty years. -Second Jupiter's proximity also results in 12 year temperature cycles as well as 60 year subeccentricity cycles to the orbit of the Earth. This impacts the Jupiter Earth gravity interaction. -Third, the Jupiter eccentricity cycles result in a nominal 60 and 240 year cycle in Venus, resulting in periodic energy peaks from Venus to the Earth as those two planets interact -Fourth Jupiter results in gravity impacts on the Sun, which show up first as sunspots, then as variations in the distance from the Sun to the Earth, which also results in changes in the Sun's gravity impact on the Earth. The magnitude of the forces from Jupiter onto the Earth, are of the same magnitude as the variations of the forces from the Sun onto the Earth, thus adding to the confirmation of the theory. First Jupiter will pull the Earth closest to it (maximum Earth eccentricity and furthest from the Sun) and then the earth orbit 6 months later will result in the Earth reaching its perihelion (closest point to the sun) and the maximum Sun Earth gravity and temperature. Obviously there are complications from the other planets such as Saturn. The eccentricity resonance cycle for Jupiter/Saturn is not exactly 60 years because the Jupiter orbit is 11.86 years and the Saturn orbit is 29.425 years while the Earth orbit is 1.00 years. This difference results in a longer term eccentricity on the order of 854 or 913 years as the orbits try to resynchronize. These nominal 900 year eccentricity cycles are evident in longer term plots of the Jupiter and Saturn orbits and are responsible for longer term variations in the energy received by the Earth from the respective planets and the Sun. From these 900 year eccentricities we get Earthly temperature variation that are on the order of 450 year warming and cooling cycles. The last warming cycle began in ~1620 and is in the process of ending since Saturn just changed from warming to cooling influences in the year 2000. For the next 450+ years we should expect further cooling as first Saturn (2000), then Venus (2090) then Jupiter (2224) all move towards more cooling influences. Meanwhile the Sun's influence is continuing towards less eccentricity and a lowering of the high temperatures and a raising of the low temperatures. The net result of which is probably a relatively stable or slightly decreasing Earth temperature for several hundred years. A continuation of the 1620 to 2000 warming is unlikely if the previous patterns and the projection of future gravity from orbital cycle changes are any guide.
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009
It is also theorized that very long term 41Ky tilt cycles and the earth 405Ky eccentricity cycle, and the correlation to Milankovitch timing cycles for solar insolation, all relate to the timing of the various orbits as they rotate through synchronization or resonance patterns. Plots of Jupiter (above) and Saturn orbits show the ~900 year sub-eccentricity cycles as subsets of longer term eccentricity cycles (the base redline is beginning to curve up indicating that the cycle is slowing and eventually ending,) theorized to be the 41Ky tilt cycle or similar long term Jupiter and Saturn orbital eccentricity and their resonance. This will resolve the Milankovitch Theory problem of having insufficient energy from solar insolation to cause ice ages. The forces of gravity & potential energy cycles, which correlate with the Milankovitch timing provide the needed energy. Wobble theory is an expanded Milankovitch theory adjusted to include the force and energy from Gravity from both the Sun and the planets. The fact that Jupiter and Saturn have latitude variations, in that their orbits take them below and above the Sun Earth ecliptic plane (see Fig 12b above) also identifies why Earthly temperature patterns go above and below the equator in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the El Nino/La Nina oscillations and the Atlantic ocean oscillations. The location of Jupiter above the northern hemisphere will result in preferential warming of the northern hemisphere. The cycling of Jupiter and Saturn, above and below will result in the 6o year cycles for the PDO etc. Without the continuous input of energy from Jupiter and Saturn gravity it would be impossible to maintain the North South temperature differences for more than a few days, as
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John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 daily cyclical variations would even them out. The orbital oscillations of Venus are primarily responsible for the shorter term (<4 years) El Nino/La Nina oscillations from north to south. This identification of the source of energy, and its timing and directions, will result in the ability to better predict these temperature oscillations, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, and rainy seasons and their various impacts. The variability of Venus (and the moon) as a short term source of energy for brief 2-3 month periods can also be responsible for significant short term weather impacts. In particular the peaking combination of Jupiter Saturn AND Venus near Oct 2010, will probably cause very severe weather problems such as a major warm spell and possibly severe hurricanes and cyclones. The identification of the gravity energy sources and their cycles, -invalidates the CO2 causes warming theory, computer codes, and the IPCC studies, Kyoto & Copenhagen protocols etc -invalidates the global engineering ideas for the reduction of CO2, it will not change temperatures -invalidates all CO2 cap and trade programs and legislation, and CO2 emissions trading -invalidates all subsequent research and temperature projections based on the “CO2 causes warming” computer codes, and all the economic studies of the consequences -invalidates the Nobel Peace prizes for IPCC & Al Gore -invalidates every science textbook and website explanation of global warming Other items identified in the report are: - Gravity is the major source of Earth internal temperature along with radioisotope decay - Gravity is the source of energy for Magnetic fields via the Dynamo theory. It varies with tilt. - Gravity is the source of energy for Stratospheric temperature variations since a reduced gravity will result in reduced magnetic field strength and reduced ion energy capture and transport towards the poles thus causing larger ozone holes. This raises the question of the validity of the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs. -Gravity is the probable cause of Sunspots or magnetic fields and disturbances in a manner similar to the Earth gravity dynamo interaction with ions in earth liquid core, and Jupiter hydrogen ions, and Sun hydrogen ions, and Stratospheric ions. -Gravity is the source of energy for Jupiter (& Saturn etc) radiating more energy than the solar insolation it absorbs & the planetary magnetic fields. (e.g. recently discovered Mercury’s field) - Gravity is a possible source of energy to account for continental drift due to forces induced by the gravity Dynamo effect on ions in the land masses -Changes in the gravity effects change the direction of forces within the continents, probably inducing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Such correlation are available as several web sites. No doubt experts in various fields will be able to identify many other impacts that the forces of gravity and energy will have in their fields. No doubt there are other impacts that discipline specialists will identify, once they consciously include the temperature/energy impacts of gravity.
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noaa. then this peak will be missed. Data is manipulated in Excel.) The data for monthly charts is taken as the value on the 1st of the month & every 30 days thereafter.000.) 7. at various time scales. Note that excel data is manipulated within the chart or graph.html when G= 6.e. 5000y 12Ky. where the actual peak was 5 or 10 day later.gov/wdc/ .g.gov/planetary/factsheet/index. The data is NOT an average value for the month or the week.nasa.jpg files.pny or . 9. Cycles and sub-cycles of eccentricity are identified. Various different scales of data yield differing views of the results.000.000. Temperature data is downloaded from the Hadley labs for 1854-2007.67428E-11. 50Ky etc.000.9891E30Kg. & M2(earth)=5. weekly or monthly data is used instead of daily data (this means that absolute max & min points may be missed. 8.) 5.97E24Kg. then the average Force applied from the sun alone is 3. Multiple jpg images are spliced or added together in picture image manipulation software such as MS Picture IT or Picasa.000. E. 93 million miles) on average. Scientific data charts (e. Longer term data IS available somewhere (e. but then every 7th day thereafter. 2009) Page 150 of 151 . magnetic field strength vs time etc are downloaded from papers or web presentations and cut & pasted with other images. and r=1. 3. 6. Note that there are limitations due to the accuracy of the Ephemeris program and the temperature data measurements. Laskar). An alternative is the JPL Horizons ephemeris program which has similar limits. GISP2 data vs time for 800y. In most cases it will not matter.000 Newtons). Due to excel 65K data limits. 4.g. Wobble Theory 13. Temperatures are compared to the charts of Forces to visually identify any patterns or periodicities. 11.g.g. This data is limited to 3000BC to 3000AD (i. The choice of distance (time) between data points may result in missing extreme values. 10.400.com) is used to generate discrete distance and latitude data for Sun to planet data and Earth to planet & sun data.. 1. ( Aug.ngdc.alcyone. for long time periods. The data for weekly charts is also the first of the month of the first year. Graphs from excel are copied to PowerPoint and then saved as .54 x 10^22 or 35. Therefore gravity is more important as an energy source. 2. but the charts are close enough to draw conclusions. There is usually sufficient data to allow ZOOMING in (manipulating the x & y scales) on what appears to be a straight line Earth distance chart to find out that it is actually a series of up and down orbits that vary in distance.. The ephemeris program Alcyone (www.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Appendix 1 Methodologies (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) In brief.496E11 meters. about 6K years. (or ~150 million Km. For data taken on the first of the month. GISP2 & Epica & Vostok data is downloaded from the World Data Center databank at http://www. Sub-cycles are identified manually by “counting” points between extremes. This is BIG compared to the energy contained in 1366 Watts/m^2 of solar insolation. (e. The distance data is used to calculate forces (Newton’s inverse r squared law) using Planetary NASA data from http://nssdc. & M1 (sun)=1.gsfc. (or 3.54E22 Newtons. GISS data is similar. eccentricity vs time.
but not to the lower atmosphere where there are fewer ions in the air. Graph Forces of Gravity vs time ON EARTH (see Figure 11a) for the obvious major sources i. ( Aug. changes the rotation rate and changes with eccentricity and tilt etc. 2009) Page 151 of 151 . it is the ionized liquid iron core above the curie temperature. just like the ice ages go to warm periods and BACK again. (Is the Montreal Protocol justified or is that incomplete/faulty science also? Did the scientific analysis of the ozone hole ignore the fact that less energy is being added to the stratosphere and above because the magnetic field has been decreasing for the last few hundred years – thus invalidating the science behind the Montreal Protocol?) 2.e.John Dodds’ WOBBLE THEORY of GLOBAL WARMING © 2009 Appendix 2: Sequence of revelation of the Wobble Theory.charged particles (ions above the Curie temperature) in the liquid core –or electric currents rotating in a gravity field.com shareware software (or NASA’s JPL Horizons codes) and the simple force of gravity formula from Isaac Newton and compare to measured temperatures. (for historians) (Return to: Table of Contents or List of Figures) 1. 6. Milankovitch Earth tilt changes the angle of rotation. (Chart references are to a previous numbering system) Wobble Theory 13. Compare to Solar insolation. Fill in the details… Note: GRAVITY WOBBLES or changes over time!! (to state the obvious that everyone already knows . Sun Moon & Planets. c. 4. In the case of Jupiter and the Sun it is the rotation of the charged metallic hydrogen that causes the conversion of gravity potential energy to magnetic field energy.once you point it out to them!). BECAUSE the reduced magnetic field is providing less energy to charged particles (cosmic ray & insolation induced ions) in the Stratosphere. It also causes an increase in the ozone hole because lower energy ozone ions travel less distance towards poles. The Magnetic Field (partially?) causes Auroras by energy transport to poles.Alcyone. distance from Sun to Earth) will change rate of rotation of Earth Shells (liquid core vs Solid core) to change dynamo effect. So what variation can change the dynamo effect?a.Answer: GRAVITY.e. and short term temperatures (under 10K years) oscillate back & forth. So what causes the Earth Magnetic Field? – accepted answer – Earth Dynamo effect. from ALL sources (Sun. IDEA: So what adds varying energy to Earth. hence magnitude of field (precession wobbles will impact it also!) b. and Milankovitch factor variations – note similarities to Ice Core temp chart. Use distance data from WWW.Moon. CONCLUDE that gravity wobbles cause temperature variations.planets). The field is maintained continuously which means that there must be a continuous and variable source of gravitational potential energy being added to the Earth.) 5. This identifies the source of energy and its variations for the Earth’s Magnetic Field. Earth’s MAGNETIC FIELD Using the philosophy of “FOLLOW THE MONEY (ENERGY) ” propose the idea that Earth’s MAGNETIC FIELD reduces Stratospheric temperature without changing ground temperature. Due to repeating orbits it also oscillates around a median. Identify Earth Mag field chart – see Figure 7 – a combination of Ice core Mag field.As identified somewhere the magnetic field around a planet is caused by the force and energy from the gravity energy converted to magnetic field energy. Any variation in gravity forces will impact the differing Earth Shell rotation rates (inner core rotates faster than liquid outer core like a spinning ice skater. that converts gravity potential energy to magnetic field energy. In the case of Earth. Also change in eccentricity (i.. Increases in Mag Field co-relate to temp increases for EACH post ice age warming! But where does the energy come from? 3.
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