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Probability of discovery (p(f)) Mean recoverable oil given discovery Mean recoverable gas given discovery Mean recoverable condensate given discovery Mean recoverable NGL given discovery Minimum Economic Reserve given discovery Probability of a commercial discovery NPV - Net Present Value given discovey EMV - Expected Monetary Value before drilling Break-even price given discovery, oil Break-even price given discovery, gas Definitions: Minimum Economic Reserve given discovery Probability of a commercial discovery NPV - Net present value given discovery EMV - Expected Monetary Value before drilling

percent mill Sm3 billion Sm3 mill Sm3 mill Sm3 mill o.e. Sm3 percent mill NOK mill NOK NOK/o.e.Sm3 NOK/o.e. Sm3

Expected reserve outcome that provides an expected NPV equal to zero. Probability of a discovery greater to or equal to the Minimum Economic Reserve. Expected net present value given discovery (including exploration and planning costs) (discount rate of 7%). See calcultaions i table 5. EMV = p(f)*(NPV) + (1-p(f))*(Net present value of exploration costs) p(f) = probability of discovery Discount rate of 7% Expected break-even price given discovery. Break-even that provides an NPV equal to zero. 7% discount rate. For an oil prospect break-even, BO, is calculated by this formula: Bo =

Cd d d X aX bX K X N

d O d G

Cd = Total costs, discounted X O = Oil volumes, discounted X d G = Gas volumes, discounted X d K = Condensate volumes, discounted

d

X d N = NGL volumes, discounted a = Value ratio between gas (in 1000 Sm3) and oil (in Sm3) = 0,64 b = Value ratio between condensate (in Sm3) and oil (in Sm3) = 1,00 = Value ratio between NGL (in Sm3) and oil (in Sm3) = 0,65

1000

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