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Joakim Lind, speech script

Mixed Reality
September 10, 2009
Ystad, Sweden

Can the 'Wallander' films be used to promote Skåne? What is the value of the
‘Wallander’ films, their exposure of Skåne and what effect does this have on the
tourist industry? With remarks to the BBC productions of Wallander films with
Kenneth Branagh in the lead role (2007-2008, 2009-2010).

A few years ago, in 2005, I was approached by representatives of the Municipal of Ystad,
Region Skåne, Oresund Film Commission and Tourism in Skåne, asking:

- Can you carry out a study that will provide an indication of the marketing value to Skåne
when it is promoted in films such as Wallander, and what this can mean for tourism?

Prior to this analysis I had carried out media analyses for the Region of Skåne summarising
the media image of Skåne in Sweden and abroad.

- “No problem – of course!,” I said, thinking “there must be someone who’s done this before.
Research that I could look back on and refer to. I can have a look and make parallels to
those studies.”

But back in 2005 I found almost nothing. Why this was the case was quickly revealed to me.
It was quite difficult, not to say impossible, to estimate a marketing value for a location.
Making expectations connected to the tourism industry is also difficult. Films and places are
unique and experiences from one region may not be relevant for another context.

The questions that I was to try and answer or reflect upon were:

1. What is the marketing or exposure value for Skåne when the region is exposed in
films? How can a region or location’s exposure in films be valued?

We all agree that films like ‘The Lord of the Rings’, ‘Star Wars’, ‘Zorba the Greek’,
and ‘Wallander’ have meant and continue to mean a lot for a location’s brand and
that in one way or another, our travel destinations are affected by reading a book or
seeing a film.
But can we find a way to quantify this value?

(Anecdote: I actually met Anthony Quinn in Crete when, in 1996, they celebrated the
50th anniversary of the book ‘Zorba the Greek’, that became a film in 1964. Well, I
say met; I was able to touch his arm. Can’t say that I went to Crete because of

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Zorba but I understood that Anthony Quinn and Zorba the Greek was regarded as
the best non-Greek ambassadeur Greece or Crete ever have had.)

2. The second question is as follows – what does this mean for tourism development
and tourism growth? What can be said in general, and about Ystad and the Skåne
region in particular?

In late 2005 only three to four of the Wallander series had been released as films. My
conclusions were based on projected scenarios of how many people would go and see the
films in different markets, and the expectations of tourism development.

When it came to the final effect on tourism, conclusions were based partly on experiences
and studies from other film location regions, and partly on interviews with representatives
from other regions with experiences from film-induced tourism.

In the last year, I have carried out similar studies for the Gotland Film Fund.

------------------
Since 2005, a lot has happened, as Itta said in her speech.

Thirteen further Wallander films with Krister Henriksson in


the lead role are being produced.

Kenneth Branagh’s first three Wallander episodes have


been produced and, as you know, have been shot on
location in Skåne. Currently another three films starring
Kenneth Branagh are being filmed on location.

I will primarily talk about what impact Branagh’s Wallander has, and what this will mean in
terms of marketing of Skåne and for Skåne as a tourist destination.

Films and locations – what effect can these have on tourism?


I created a model for how the value of regional exposure could be quantified and defined
some assumptions. You have to make assumptions. There are so many factors that should
be considered so you have to define some as static – ceteris paribus. Accept these
assumptions, which I believe to be reasonable, and a marketing value can be defined.

The assumptions I defined are as follows:

• Beautiful natural and environmental depictions in films attract tourists if the film is of
the correct type, meaning that the locations can be identified in the real world.
Through this, value is created. Sometimes a film is filmed on a location different

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from where it claims to take place (Lars von Trier’s ‘Dancer in the Dark’,
Trollhättan/USA). Every film gives message about a location – real or fictional. I
think perhaps every film contributes to how we perceive the world and look on
humanity. Many films contribute to the shaping of a location’s brand. How would we
perceive Gotland if legends like Bergman and Tarkovski wouldn’t have filmed there?
What would Ystad and Skåne be without the Wallander books and films?
• The depictions can be identified as scenes that are touristic, and where it is clear
from the story that the scenes are from a certain location. This does not necessarily
mean that the scenes must have been shot there.
• The exposure value of a location can be calculated in the same way as a product
(product placement).

In the case of Wallander, I obviously assume the books have at least the same marketing
value as all the films.

However, I have only analysed and valued the films. What can be said – with the support of
Sue Beeton from La Trobe University, Australia, among others – is that it seems it is only
when a book is first adapted into a film that it has an increased effect on tourism.

Marketing Value – Exposure Value

The estimated marketing value is based on a model that


shows ‘cost of contact’ (the cost of creating and showing
tourism advertising on the same channel and reaching the
same audience with an advertising film).

The so-called ‘cost of contact’ differs, depending on


whether TV, DVD or cinema is used. This is something we
also took account of in the first studies.

‘Cost of contact’ can then be multiplied by the amount of clear ‘exposures’ (contacts) of the
region in the film.

What we have defined as ‘contact’ are characteristic local environment pictures or images
representative of the location (or when Skåne and/or Ystad is mentioned) or the use of
dialogue at the location in a way that reinforces the location’s characteristics. This can mean
scenes that are ‘touristy’ in nature and could just as easily be found in a tourist brochure or
advertising film.

The amount of contacts obviously varies from film to film. In some films, the location is
important for the plot. In such cases, the viewer knows where the film is set. In other films
the location is not important.

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In the case of Wallander films, Skåne is prominent. In an article, a Dagens Nyheter journalist
stated that Wallander could take place anywhere. This isn’t true. Wallander is closely
associated with Skåne. The early 1990s, when the first Wallander books were published, saw
the fall of the Communist states, an uncertain global future etc. This meant that the location
of Skåne is of great importance and essential to the plots and events in the Wallander books
and films.

To avoid reaching ‘pie in the sky’ figures, we continually used careful, conservative
estimations of location contacts and calculations.

We concluded that if you calculate ‘cost of contact’ in a similar manner to product placement
and accept that beautiful natural surroundings can have a positive effect on tourism, it is
clear that films can have a major, lasting influence on marketing value.

In each of Krister Henriksson’s Wallander films, we identified on average, 17 clear tourism


‘exposures’ to Skåne.

With an audience of 130 million contacts (here I got


audience figures from all the distributors, or
equivalent, from other films) in the countries in which
the films were to be broadcasted, these 17 exposures
were valued at almost 600 MSEK – 50 million euros.

On average, every individual exposure of Skåne was


valued at 2.7 cents, the equivalent of 0.5 euros (4.6
SEK) per viewer for the 17 clear Skåne exposures the
films were deemed to contain.

It should be pointed out that the study was carried out over the winter of 2005 and deals
with an anticipated audience. Today, with hard facts in hand and new markets where the
films have been broadcasted, and other 13 films produced, advertising value is of course
even higher. Furthermore, the impact that Wallander has in new markets following a
successful BBC production will increase exposure value for Krister Henriksson’s films even
more. And I assume the BBC production will create interest for the Swedish Wallander films.

The value reveals what it would cost the region to reach the same audience
through advertising in the different markets.

(Now I will comment the new Wallander films starring Kenneth Branagh.)

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If there was a lot of Skåne in the Swedish versions, there is possibly even more in
Branagh’s. As an old ‘Skåning’ I didn’t feel entirely at home (in Skåne) in the earlier
productions but in Branagh’s films, in my opinion, the essence of Skåne has been captured
fantastically. There is a magic in the landscapes that adds another dimension to what are
already exciting books and stories. This, I think, can make the films into tourism magnets
even more. In scene after scene, I think “this is so beautiful”. Of course I am somewhat
biased. But this has also been said in the reviews – at least in Swedish.

(Slide: Skåne scenery in ‘One Step Behind’)

If we look at ‘One Step Behind’, here’s example how we counted. Scenes had to be at least
30 seconds in length to count as one exposure. Branagh’s Wallander films contain on
average 18-20 clear exposures of Skåne including clear mentioning of location.

Advertising value per film and contact is calculated at 4.86 SEK – 5.40 SEK (appr. 50 cents,
0.5 euros).

To calculate exposure value, we need to know how many millions of people the films will
reach. The films have been shown in the UK, Germany, USA and Japan. These are big
markets. They will also be shown on TV in Scandinavia later this year or next year.

Market share in NY: 3-4 per cent. This figure is even higher in Japan.

The films have already been seen by approximately 100 million people.

A successful British drama series can reach 100


million people per episode. An audience of perhaps
300-500 million non-unique contacts is not
unreasonable for a successful drama production. The
films are likely to reach even more contacts.

In the diagram below, we have calculated using a


figure of 0.27 SEK per Skåne exposure (2.7 cents).
This is translated from an average value for product
placement. Can introduce the term location
placement.

RESULT: If the films reach 500 million contacts – which is not unreasonable for a British
drama series – advertising value will be 2.5 billion SEK plus (approximately 250 million
euros), probably even more.

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What is not included in this calculation is a decrease of ad value connected to repetition. The
first contacts are usually regarded as more valued and the additional less valued. (The value
could actually be negative if the exposure is frequent and too commercial.)

On the other hand I have only calculated cautiously and only used ad value and not a
multiplicator that you sometimes do to indicate that exposure in a feature film is regarded
higher than commercials.

In the study we have only looked at traditional channels such as TV, DVD or cinema.

But films reach us in so many other ways. For a more complete validation also these
channels should be included.

• Marketing material
• Peer to peer people talk
• Newspaper, TV and radio reviews
• Above all, the internet

YouTube visits increased by almost 80 percent last year. Daily use increased among all age
groups. More and more media is consumed on the internet. We also consume video clips in a
new way. This includes viral marketing, short clips that circulate in a more social web.

I believe that the internet does more for the region itself than DVD or video. Above all, I
want to see the films as artistic. However, a film clip or review can be passed on to my
friends for other purposes.

• Through YouTube and other channels, clips from


the BBC production of Wallander circulate.
• Clips from reviews – viral effect. People who
think the films are exciting and send them on to
friends / peers.
• This gives much more credibility and increases
‘observation’.
• Marketing value via viral channels is perhaps
much larger than?

Since we do not know how big an audience the films will reach, what can be said is:

Without hesitation, we can clearly say that the films will take Skåne out to a huge
audience and the films will attract tourists to Skåne.

__________

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The second part deals with how big an effect the films can have on tourism.

Without doubt, films and books are important in forming our


perception of the world and can contribute to affecting our
choice of destination.

Film tourism is becoming more and more popular. One


example is the use by web sites and travel agencies. But still,
film-related travel only accounts as one of a number of
reasons as to why people visit a particular region. The tourist
that goes to a place just because of a film is still quite scarce.

Looking at our part of the world:

• How would we perceive Gotland if Bergman and Tarkovsky hadn’t set films there and
left their mark on the island?
• How would we have perceived Stockholm and Småland and life on the other side if
we remove Astrid Lindgren from our thoughts?

To define what effect films have on tourism is more difficult. There are several international
examples that clearly illustrate this.

In the 2005 study, we studied regions with some similarities to Skåne and with experience of
film tourism in order to see what effects were seen there.

I looked at other studies that had been carried out as well as interviewing
representatives of regions that had experience of exposure as film locations.

Some examples of regions with experiences or comments to film-induced tourism that were
interviewed in prior studies.

• Inspector Morse. There are obvious comparisons with Inspector Morse. It is based on
successful novels (by Colin Dexter), just like Wallander. Oxford is one of the most
filmed towns in the world – at least in the UK. Suzanne Lockhart claims that at least
20% of tourists visiting the town do so with the TV series or films as the primary
reason. Around half perceive the films as important. During the 1990s and early
2000, Suzanne claims that a significant amount of visitors came with Morse as the
primary argument. Today, it’s more likely to be Harry Potter that attracts people to
the town.
• Polisen på Samsø. Danish police drama from the late 1990s.
• Swedish examples – Film i Väst and Filmpool Nord. The Hunters (Jägarna) from 1995
attracts tourists to Älvsbyn, but on a smaller scale.

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Experience from regions equivalent to Skåne show that tourism can be expected to increase
by between 4 and 10 percent per year for the first three years after exposure in an
internationally successful film. This figure can go up to 30-40 percent for a location like
Ystad, and is expected for the period during 2006-2008. The actual figures, now that we
know them, have been even greater than expected if we look at both visitor figures and
increase in turnover from tourism.

It is difficult to refine a film’s meaning for tourism


development. Film brings only one in a series of
argument to go to a location. Reputation, currency levels,
climate and weather forecast are other arguments. Of
course, the Swedish currency has also had effects on the
tourism recent years.

In our study, it was assumed that all other variables


remained consistent.

In the earlier study, I showed a prognosis of how tourist visitors from markets where
Wallander films were shown would increase. This was before the BBC production. A BBC
production reaches significantly more people.

The BBC production can reach an audience of hundreds of millions from significantly more
countries compared with earlier Wallander productions. Many of these people live within
travelling distance of Sweden, Skåne and Ystad.

It can therefore be concluded that tourism to Skåne will increase by significantly more than
the 3-4 percent per year previously mentioned, and that many visitors will quote the films as
an important motivating factor in why they chose to discover Skåne. This can perhaps
account for 10 percent per year or similar.

The increase in tourists visiting Ystad will obviously be even higher, with perhaps a 50
percent increase of tourism to Ystad during the coming three to four years. If other things
will stay the same – consistent – I think that the BBC production of Wallander will be a hit
for the tourism industry.

Thank you!

Joakim Lind
Mobile: +46 (0)70 928 69 73
Email: joakim.lind@cloudberry.se

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