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Weibull Analysis

Course Content
I.

II.

III. Weibull Analysis

IV. System Reliability & Warranty Data Analysis

V.

VI.

. Reliability Introduction


Reliability?
The probability that an item will perform a required function without failure
under stated conditions for a stated period of time.

Probability Density Function : f(t)


Cumulative Distribution Function : F(t)

()
Reliability Function : R(t)


Hazard Function : h(t), (t)


MTTF (Mean Time To Failure)

f (X) =

MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure)

(Percentile)
B Life (B10, B5, B1)
4

1
e
2p s

( X - m )2
2s 2

n(t)
N

F(t) =

N-n(t)
N

f(t) =

n(t+t) -n(t)
N

t (t+t)

(t) =

n(t) -n(t+t)
n(t)t

t (t+t)
t t

R(t) =



90 6 Data
F(t), R(t), f(t), (t)?

4
21
30
25
8
2

t()
1
2
3
4
5
6

Fre

f(t)
0.350

30

0.300

25

0.250

20

0.200

15

0.150

10

0.100

0.050

0.000
2

R(t)
0.956
0.722

f(t)
0.044
0.233

(t)
0.044
0.244

0.6111

0.389

0.333

0.462

0.889
0.978
1.000

0.111
0.022
0.000

0.278
0.089
0.022

0.714
0.800
1.000

F(t=2)
=
(t)

35

F(t)
0.044
0.278

1.000
0.900
0.800
R(t=2)

0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400

f(t=2)
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000

1
2
3(t=2)
4

=5

N-n(t)
N
1.000
n(t) 0.900
0.800
N 0.700
0.600
0.500
n(t+t) -n(t)
0.400
N 0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
n(t) -n(t+t)
6

n(t)t

25
90

1=

=R(t)

0.278

65
90

0.722

21
90

0.233

21
3
86

=4

50.244
6

F(t)

.Types of Probability Distributions

Types of Probability Distributions


Why use Probability Distributions?
Probability distributions are used to evalulate failure data to predict reliability
Probability distributions fit real world measurements and test data (life, failure rate)

Often Used Probability Distributions


Continous Distribution :
Exponential
Normal
Weibull
Log-Normal
Gamma
Chi-Square
Others
Discrete Distribution :
Poisson
Binomial
Others
8

Types of Probability Distributions

Bathtub Curve

Gamma

Exponential

10

Normal, Log Normal

Exponential Distribution

Overstress
(: )


: f(t) = e-t

: R(t) = e-t
: h(t) =
(MTTF): =1/
( MTTF )
R t
tR = ln(1/R)

11

Exponential Distribution
(MTTF)
(T) (r)

=
r

Where T: Total Test Time,

Type I

Type II

nt
= r
r

nt
= 0
r
t0 :

r: ,

t (n - r )t0
= i
r

n :

10
X

20
X

tr :

30
X

40
X
|

t (n - r )t r
= i
r

|
60
/

t (n - r )t0
= i
r

10 + 20 + 30 + 40 + (6-4) x 60
4
12

= 220/4 = 55

Exponential Distribution
: (MTTF) 55
( )?
, = 1/ MTTF = 1/55 = 0.01818
20 ?
R(t=20) = e-t = e-0.01818 x 20 = 0.695
20 ?
F(t=20) = 1 - e-t = 1 - e-0.01818 x 20 = 1- 0.695 = 0.305

F(t=55) = 1 - e-t

1 - e-0.01818 x 55 = 1- 0.362 = 0.632

63.2%

B10 Life ( 10% ) => F(t=?) = 0.1 = 1 - e-t


=> e-t = 0.9
=> t = ln(0.9)/- = 5.8

13

Normal Distribution
/ (6 Sigma)
N(m, s2) .
99.999998%

t - m 2
f (t ) =
exp - t
2
2p s
2s

99.999943%

99.9937%
68.26%
95.46%
99.73%
m-6s m-5s m-4s m-3s m-2s m-s


- T ~ N(m, s2)
t-m
t-m
) = 1 - (
)
s
s
t-m
: F (t ) = 1 - R(t ) = (
)
s
:

R(t ) = P(T t ) = P( Z

(MTBF): m

14

m+s m+2s m+3s m+4sm+5s m+6s

Normal Distribution

m=100,000 Cycle, s=10,000 Cycle .
12 Cycle F(t),R(t) .
z = (120,000 100,000)/10,000 = 2
F(t=12,000) = (

t -m

) = z = 2.0 = 0.9772

R(t=12,000) = 1 0.9772 = 0.0228

15

Lognormal Distribution
Log(T) ( ) N(m, s2), m: , s:
(, ), (, ) ,
T ~

lnt - 2
1
: f(t) =
exp
2 2
2t

t0


Mean = exp
2

ln(t) -
R(t) = P[T t] = P Z

Log(T) ~

16

Lognormal Distribution
m s .
. s
s > 2 ,
s = 1 ,
s < 0.5 ,

17

Weibull Distribution

(Highly flexible)
() ()

<1: DFR,

=1: CFR,

=2: IFR

<1: ,

=1: ,

=2: ,

=3.5:

.
(components parts) .
The Weibull Distribution(WD) should be used at or below the component level

The WD should be used only when a single failure mode is expected.


The WD is typically applied in analyzing mechanical failures
( ball bearings, motors, fatigue failure of some simple structures.)

18

Weibull Distribution

2

t
f(t) =

-1

t
exp -

t
R(t) = exp -

t
h(t) =

MTBF

-1

3
t -
f(t) =

-1

t -
exp -

t -
R(t) = exp -

t -
h(t) =

-1

1
MTBF = 1

1
MTBF = 1

Definition :

, (scale parameter) : the compression of the weibull probability density function


, (shape parameter) : the slope of the weibull culmulative distribution function
, (location parameter) : the x intercept of the weibull probability density function
,
19

. Weibull Analysis

Weibull Background
Weibull Analysis Backgroud

Developed by W. Weibull (Sweden 1937)

Originally used to describe fatigue of bearings

Extended to many other applications

Works well for LIFE data

Works well for small data sets

Method is easy to learn and apply

Statisticians hate it

Weibull ?

Plot


(Probability Paper) ,

, ,
, ,
21

Weibull Distribution
Flexiblility of Weibull Distribution

Shape ,

22

<1:

=1:

=2:

=3.5:

Weibull Plotting theory


Weibull
F(t) (t)
F(t) = 1 - exp(-(t/)) 1-F(t) = - exp(-(t/)) ln[ln(1/[1-F(t)])] = ln(t) - ln()
ln[ln(1/[1-F(t)])] ln(t)

aX +

Weibull Probability Paper

ln(t)

F(t)

Percent

99

ML Estimates

95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30

(t, F(t))

Shape:

3.20182

Scale:

77.8615

, ?

ln[ln(1/[1-F(t)])]

20
10
5
3
2
1
10

100

Data
23

F(t) ?

Small Sample F(t)


F(t)
Median Rank: F(t) = (i-0.3)/(N+0.4) - 10 Median Rank
Mean Rank: F(t) = i/(N+1)
Midpoint Rank:

F(t) = (i-0.5)/N

Median Rank
GM, Johnson
Median rank positions are used instead of other ranking methods because median
ranks are at a specific confidence level (50%). => 50% Rank
i tim e to failure

24

F(i)

16

(1-0.3)/(6+0.4) =

0.109

34

(2-0.3)/(6+0.4) =

0.266

53

(3-0.3)/(6+0.4) =

0.422

75

(4-0.3)/(6+0.4) =

0.578

93

(5-0.3)/(6+0.4) =

0.734

120

(6-0.3)/(6+0.4) =

0.891

Small Sample F(t)


Censoring Data F(t)
Consider case with sample of 4 fatigue tests
2500 cycles (F), 3000 cycles (S), 4200 cycles (F), 4900 cycles (F)
How to assign Median Ranks, F(t)

25

Weibull Parameter
Weibull Parameter(, ) Estimation
Probability Plotting

Least Squares Method(LSM :)

y = a bx
b =

S( xy ) ( xi - x )( yi - y )
=
( xi - x ) 2
S( xx)

* :

x = ln(t )

a = y-b x

y = ln[ln(1 - F (t )) -1 ]

= b
= (e-a)1/b

Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE :)


Method of Moments (MOM)
26

Weibull Probability Plot



,F(t)

1, 2, ...
i ,F(t) (Median Rank)
(ti , F(ti ))
.





27

Weibull Probability Plot


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

F(t)

92
130
233
260
320
325
420
430
465
518
640
700
710
770
830
1010
1020
1280
1330
1690

0.0341
0.0831
0.1322
0.1812
0.2302
0.2793
0.3283
0.3774
0.4264
0.4775
0.5245
0.5736
0.6226
0.6717
0.7207
0.7698
0.8188
0.8678
0.9169
0.9659

= (1-0.3)/(20+0.4)
= (2-0.3)/(20+0.4)

28

Weibull Probability Plot



(), ()

1
F(t)

ln(t)

ln[ln(1-F(t))-1]


63.2

F(t0)

t0

29


4 .
?

30

Weibull

<1

>4
stress corrosion

()

>1

=1

, t
t0

t1

burn-in
stress screening

t2

Over Stress Failure



Safety Factor
3

31

t3
1<<4
Weatout Failure
Fatigue

Mixed Weibull Distribution


()
2
Weibull Probability Plot for Failure

Percent

99

ML Estimates

95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
10

100

1000

Data
32

Shape:

1.36793

Scale:

344.551

Mixed Weibull Distribution


Mixed Weibull Distribution

33

. System Reliability & Warranty

System Reliability Analysis


System Reliability Analysis

System Reliability
: RS = R1R2R3Ri = Ri

(RS = , Ri = i )

: RS = 1 - F1F2F3Fi = 1 - Fi = 1 (1-Ri )

R1 = 0.9

R1 = 0.9

R2 = 0.9

R2 = 0.9

RS = R1R2 = (0.9)(0.9) = 0.81

RS = 1-F1F2 = 1-(0.1)(0.1) = 0.99

35

System Reliability Analysis



6 (5km)
, R1 ,
5km
R1 = ? , =0.00201/km
R2 = 0.999, R3 = 0.95, R4 = 0.85, R5 = 0.89, R6 = 0.78

R1=

e-t =

Rx = 1-(1-0.85)(1-0.89)(1-0.79)

0.99

= 0.996

RS= R1R2R3Rx = 0.936

36

Warranty Data, Weibull


2008. 7 SOP Warranty Data ( 2008. 07 ~ 2009. 01)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

2008. 7

2008. 8

2008. 9 2008. 10 2008. 11 2008. 12 2009. 1

1977

4249

5945

3784

4228

8349

3417

31949

0
8
15
11
1
11
3

5
4
7
0
2
0

0
3
2
7
4

0
1
4
6

0
2
7

0
3

5
21
35
24
7
11
3

f(t)

F(t)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

31949
28532
20183
15955
12171
6226
1977

5
21
35
24
7
11
3

0.00016
0.00074
0.00173
0.00150
0.00058
0.00177
0.00152

0.00016
0.00089
0.00263
0.00413
0.00471
0.00647
0.00799

100,000

16
89
263
413
471
647
799
Censored Data

37

16
73
174
150
58
176
152
=

99201

Warranty Data, Weibull


Weibull Analysis

Censoring Information

Count

Uncensored value

799

Right censored value

Table of Percentiles
Standard

99201

Percent Percentile

Censoring value: Censored = 0

Error

95.0% Normal CI
Lower

0.0001

0.02690

0.005446

0.0010

0.1157

0.01750

0.08599

0.1556

Estimation Method: Maximum Likelihood

0.0100

0.4974

0.05005

0.4084

0.6059

Distribution: Weibull

0.1000

2.1394

0.1105

1.9334

2.3674

1.0000

9.2255

0.2120

8.8192

9.6505

2.0000

14.3572

0.4382

13.5236

15.2422

3.0000

18.6218

0.6959

17.3066

20.0369

Upper

4.0000

22.4172

0.9594

20.6135

24.3787

1.69185

5.0000

25.9059

1.2235

23.6156

28.4183

6.0000

29.1742

1.4868

26.4010

32.2387

7.0000

32.2746

1.7489

29.0225

35.8911

8.0000

35.2423

2.0100

31.5149

39.4104

9.0000

38.1020

2.2701

33.9027

42.8215

10.0000

40.8722

2.5293

36.2036

46.1427

Parameter Estimates
Standard
Parameter Estimate
Shape

Scale

1.57865

170.03

Error
0.05578

18.76

95.0% Normal CI
Lower
1.47301

136.96

211.08

Table of Survival Probabilities


95.0% Normal CI
Time Probability

Lower

Upper

24.0000

0.9556

0.9491

0.9612

36.0000

0.9174

0.9020

0.9304
38

0.01809

Upper
0.04000

Warranty Data Lab Data Data


B10Life, 160,000Km !
Weibull
Fail : 3ea @ 432hr, 1ea @ 576hr
Censored : 2ea @ 900hr
= 2.1875
= 986 hr
B10 Life = 281 hr
?

Field(Warranty) Data, Weibull Analysis


B10 Life = 100,000 Km


LAB 281 hr Field 100,000 km ()

160,000Km B10 Life ?


281hr : Field 100,000Km = T : Field 160,000Km
B10 Life 16Km T = 500
39

Exercises

Exercises
1
20 5000 , 280, 680, 1030, 1260,
1340, 1500, 2480, 3860, 4700 . (MTTF) B10
Life .

2
1 Data , () = 0.9252, () = 8445
. B10 Life .

3
4
1000 R(t=1000)?
MTTF = 3000

R2

=1500, = 200

= 2, = 4500

R1
MTTF = 3000

41

R3
Rx

R4

1
20 5000 , 280, 680, 1030,
1260, 1340, 1500, 2480, 3860, 4700 . (MTTF)
B10 Life .

t (n - r )t0
= i
r

17130 + 55000
9

B10 Life
R(t) = e-t t = lnR(t)-1 t = 844

42

= 72130/9 = 8014

2
1 Data , () = 0.9252, () = 8445
. B10 Life .

t
R(t) = exp -

B10 Life

t = [ln R(t)-1]1/

= 741

43

3
4
1000 R(t=1000)?
MTTF = 3000

R2

=1500, = 200

= 2, = 4500

R1
MTTF = 3000

R3

Rx
R1 = 1 - (

t -m

) = 1 - (-2.5) = 1 0.0062 = 0.9938

R2,R3 = e-t = e-1000/3000 = 0.7165 Rx = 1 (1-R2)(1-R3) = 0.9196


R4 = exp -

= 0.9518

Rs = R1 Rx R4 = (0.9938)(0.9196)(0.9518) = 0.8698
44

R4

. Reliability Qualification Test


Durability test:
how KDAC runs wheel cylinder stroke test
GMW15391 99% Reliability 50% confidence KDAC


Bayes Theorem 99% sample cycle
?
Weibull slope < 1

1.1Million brake apply

spreadsheet .



(R98C50 at 75,000 cycle)
Customer


(Stress, )

Test Time & Sample Size

46

Customer Stress & Part Strength


Good & Bad Design
Stress
(Customer Usage)

Strength

Stress
Strength
(Customer Usage)

Design Strength Greater Than Field Stress


Field Stress Greater Than Design Strength

Field Failure Probability = Stress & Strength Interference region

In the severe use condition of customer, no failure = good design


Lab Test Condition = 95/99/99.8th %ile customer load condition

47

99.8th Percentile Customer Stress?


Customer use condition
Occurance
Dec(G)

Percent

Percentile

10.0

0.12

20.0

0.16

30.0

0.19

40.0

0.22

50.0

0.25

60.0

0.28

70.0

0.32

80.0

0.35

90.0

0.41

91.0

0.42

92.0

0.42

93.0

0.43

94.0

0.44

Forward

Rear

Total

0.2

746,618

106,660

853,278

0.3

198,490

28,356

226,846

0.4

155,112

22,158

177,270

0.5

54,515

7,788

62,303

0.6

14,493

2,076

16,569

0.7

2,915

417

3,332

0.8

274

38

312

95.0

0.46

0.9

80

80

96.0

0.47

21

21

97.0

0.49

98.0

0.51

1.1

99.0

0.54

1.2

99.8

0.61

100.0

0.85

Total

1,172,526

167,493

1,340,019

99.8th

%ile Customer Stress


= 0.61G = Test Stress

48

No Failure Test
Success-run formula (Bayes theorem)
RL = (1 C)1/n
Where RL = lower limit of reliability (RL = 0.97 indicates that R > or = 0.97)
C = confidence level
n = sample size

Success Run Table


Lower Limit Reliability = RL
Sample

C = Confidence Level

Reliability Requirement :

Size = n

50%

60%

90%

95%

0.500

0.400

0.100

0.050

0.794

0.737

0.464

0.368

0.906

0.877

0.720

0.652

lab Test?

14

0.952

0.937

0.848

0.807

17

0.960

0.948

0.873

0.838

35 parts test to 52 cylcles

23

0.970

0.961

0.905

0.878

17

0.960

0.948

0.873

0.838

23

0.970

0.961

0.905

0.878

35

0.980

0.974

0.936

0.918

69

0.990

0.987

0.967

0.958

R98 C50 at 52 cycles


How to design Reliability

without failure

49

Sample Size & Test Time Trade-off


Weibayes formula
n2 = n1*(t1/t2) , t2/ t1 = (n1/ n2 )1/ = multiple lives
F(t) = 1 - exp(-(t/)) R(t) = 1-F(t) = exp(-(t/))
R = (1 C)1/n = exp(-(t/)) Ln(1-C) = - n* (t/)

Ln(1-C) = -n1*(t1/) = -n2* (t2/)


n1*t1 = n2*t2 n2 = n1*(t1/t2)
Where = Weibull slope

n1 = original sample size


t1 = original test time = one life = target life (Reliability Evaluation point)
n2 = fewer sample size actually tested longer
t2 = longer test time

50

Sample Size
We plan a fairly short success test on propeller shaft shown below. We can run
the propeller shafts to 2.8 lives on a severe lab test. Previous data showed a
failure test on a similar drive shaft with a Weibull slope of 1.5. How man shafts
should we success test if customer wants to demonstrate a reliability of R97
C50 at one life?

N2 = N1*(T1/T2)
T2 = 2.8
T1 = 1

= 1.5
N1 = Ln(1-0.5) / Ln(0.97) = 22.76
N2 = 22.76*(1/2.8)1.5 = 4.86
5 Shafts must be tested to demonstrate R97C50

51

Test Time
We want to test a few rear suspension modules to a longer time to demonstate
reliablility in a success test. The reliability requirement for these modules is R >
or equal to 99% at one life on a severe lab test. Previously, we ran a failure test
for similar rear suspension modules and found the weibull slope to be 3.0. we
would like test only 6 rear suspension modules. How many lives should we be
tested on a success test to demonstrate an R of 99% at one life and at 50%
confidence?
T2/ T1 = (N1/ N2 )1/
N1 = Ln(1-0.5) / Ln(0.99) = 68.97
N2 = 6

=3

T2/ T1 = (69/ 6 )1/3 = 2.257 lives

52

Extension Test
100(1-)% Bx t

h ,

2 (2r +2)
n ( ) x
x
h
2
t

ln(1-x)-1

n ,

t
2 (2r +2)
h
x
x
n
2

1/

1
-1

ln(1-x)

t :
h :
n :
r :
: 1-
X : B x Life x
53

Extension Test
98% Reliability at 50% Confidence (75,000 cycle)
(Weibull Slope of 1.5 is Recommended for selecting sample size)
75,000 cycle
r = 0
50% B2 Life 75,000 Cycle ?
T = 75,000 , h = 75,000 , = 1.5 , = 0.5 , r = 0,
2(, 2r+2) = 2(0.5, 2) = 1.38629
n?
2 (2r +2)
n ( ) x
x
h
2
t

75,000
75,000

1.5

x = 0.02

ln(1-x)-1

1.38629
2

-1
ln(1-0.02)

34.3

1 Sample
t
2 (2r +2)
h
x
x
n
2

1/

1
-1

ln(1-x)

= 13,345 cycle
54

. Accelerated Tests



(, , , , )
-

- ,
(extrapolation)

Tn = Af x Ts ,

Tn :

Ts : Af :
56

T 50 = Ae E/kT

(Arrhenius)

(Eyring)

(Inverse Power)

A : ,E : Activation Energy
k : Boltzman (8.617x10-5)
T : ( + 273.26)
T50 : . =>1/, =>

T 50 = Ae E/kTV-B
A,B : , V : or

T 50 = AV-B
A,B : , V : or

T 50 =T a 2-
10 Rule

Generalized Eyring

HAST

Ta :
: (-)/10)

T 50 = /Te E/kTe (+/T)S


,, : , S : (Load)

T 50 = Ve E/kTe /RH
: , V : , RH :

57

or

10

& Load

&&



40


(2) : 105, 125
20


:
- : Arrhenius
T50(40) = AeE/kT
ln(T50) = ln(A) + E/kT

58

Temp.C

Time

Freq

F/C

105

132

105

181

105

226

105

252

105

288

105

309

105

333

105

354

105

377

105

398

105

425

10

125

66

125

87

125

99

125

105

125

112

125

123

125

134

125

143

125

154

125

163

125

175

10

&
ln(T50) = ln(A) + E/kT
= -11.987 + 0.58018/T +
59

125

105

40

Tn = Af x Ts
where Tn :
Ts :

Af :

125 Af = 13540/138 = 98
105 Af = 13540/336 = 13.5

60

Maximum likelihood (MLE) & Least squares (LS)


Maximum likelihood (MLE) -
Distribution parameter estimates are more precise than least squares (XY).
MLE allows you to perform an analysis when there are no failures. When there is only

one failure and some right-censored observations, the maximum likelihood parameter
estimates may exist for a Weibull distribution.
The maximum likelihood estimation method has attractive mathematical qualities.

Least squares (LS) -


Better graphical display to the probability plot because the line is fitted to the points
on a probability plot.
For complete sample, LS is more accurate than MLE. MLE tends to overestimate the
shape parameter for a Weibull distribution and underestimate the scale parameter in
other distributions. Therefore, MLE will tend to overestimate the low percentiles.

62

Characteristics of the Weibull Distribution

63

F(t)=(i-0.3)/(n+0.4) vs. F(t) = i/(n+1)

64

Height(in centimeters)

81.5

=i y
-y
=yy
-(a
(a
bxi )i )
i -i=(a
e i = yei e
-y
=i y

)bx
iy
i bx
i
i i=y
i i Predicted

(a,b) ?

81.0

Observed

80.5

80.0

Residual = Observed - Predicted

e i = y i - y i = y i - (a bx i )

(y - y )
= (y - (a bx(
)) Y
mi
e = n
n

i =1

79.5
22

23

24

Age(in months)

25

a,b =

2
i

i =1

i =1

26

b=

(x - x)(y - y)
(x - x)
i

65

a = y - bx

Excel
EXCEL
ln(ln(1/(1-F(t)))
t
92
130
233
260
320
325
420
430
465
518
640
700
710
770
830
1010
1020
1280
1330
1690

F(t)
0.0343
0.0833
0.1324
0.1814
0.2304
0.2794
0.3284
0.3775
0.4265
0.4755
0.5245
0.5735
0.6225
0.6716
0.7206
0.7696
0.8186
0.8676
0.9167
0.9657

ln(t)
4.5218
4.8675
5.4510
5.5607
5.7683
5.7838
6.0403
6.0638
6.1420
6.2500
6.4615
6.5511
6.5653
6.6464
6.7214
6.9177
6.9276
7.1546
7.1929
7.4325

ln[ ln(1/(1-F(t))]
-3.3548
-2.4417
-1.9521
-1.6088
-1.3399
-1.1157
-0.9210
-0.7467
-0.5871
-0.4381
-0.2965
-0.1599
-0.0260
0.1074
0.2430
0.3839
0.5349
0.7042
0.9102
1.2156

ln[ ln(1/(1-F(t))]

2
1
0

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

-1
-2

Y = 1.5215x - 10.055
2
R = 0.9916

-3
-4

Y = a + bX
a = -10.055
b = 1.5215
= b = 1.5215

ln ()

= (e-a)1/b = 743
66

, B10
= 1.3, = 500,000 mile
100,000 mile R(t)?

t
R(t) = exp - = exp[-(100,000/300,000)1.3] = 0.884

B10 Life?

t=*(ln(1/R(t)))1/
= 500,000 * (ln(1/0.9))1/1.3 = 88,549 mile

= 500,000 mile , = 2 B10 Life?


t=*(ln(1/R(t)))1/
= 500,000 * (ln(1/0.9))1/2 = 162,296 mile

67

50% Confidence Level


Why Use 50% Confidence for Reliability Demonstration Tests?
A Common way across GM
Avoids confusion

Reports the best estimate of reliability


Using higher confidence levels gives under-estimated or overly conservative estimates
of reliability
Balances risk of passing bad parts & rejecting good parts
The 50% estimates is read off the Weibull best fit line

68


Binomial Distribution
- n : (Sampling with Replacement)
- p : - x :
n = 6 p = 0.25 (a) (b)

69

1)
Z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0

0
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.3413
0.3643
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4861
0.4893
0.4918
0.4938
0.4953
0.4965
0.4974
0.4981
0.4987

0.01
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.3438
0.3665
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4864
0.4896
0.4920
0.4940
0.4955
0.4966
0.4975
0.4982
0.4987

0.02
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.3461
0.3686
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4868
0.4898
0.4922
0.4941
0.4956
0.4967
0.4976
0.4982
0.4987

0.03
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.3485
0.3708
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4871
0.4901
0.4925
0.4943
0.4957
0.4968
0.4977
0.4983
0.4988

0.04
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.3508
0.3729
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4875
0.4904
0.4927
0.4945
0.4959
0.4969
0.4977
0.4984
0.4988

0.05
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.3531
0.3749
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4878
0.4906
0.4929
0.4946
0.4960
0.4970
0.4978
0.4984
0.4989

0.06
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.3554
0.3770
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4881
0.4909
0.4931
0.4948
0.4961
0.4971
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989

0.07
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.3577
0.3790
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4884
0.4911
0.4932
0.4949
0.4962
0.4972
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989

0.08
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.3599
0.3810
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4887
0.4913
0.4934
0.4951
0.4963
0.4973
0.4980
0.4986
0.4990

0.09
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
0.3621
0.3830
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
0.4890
0.4916
0.4936
0.4952
0.4964
0.4974
0.4981
0.4986
0.4990

2)
df\
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

0.995
0.00004
0.01003
0.07172
0.20699
0.41174
0.67573
0.98926
1.34441
1.73493
2.15586
2.60322
3.07382
3.56503
4.07467
4.60092
5.14221
5.69722
6.26480
6.84397
7.43384
8.03365
8.64272
9.26042
9.88623
10.51965
11.16024
11.80759
12.46134
13.12115
13.78672

0.99
0.00016
0.02010
0.11483
0.29711
0.55430
0.87209
1.23904
1.64650
2.08790
2.55821
3.05348
3.57057
4.10692
4.66043
5.22935
5.81221
6.40776
7.01491
7.63273
8.26040
8.89720
9.54249
10.19572
10.85636
11.52398
12.19815
12.87850
13.56471
14.25645
14.95346

0.975
0.00098
0.05064
0.21580
0.48442
0.83121
1.23734
1.68987
2.17973
2.70039
3.24697
3.81575
4.40379
5.00875
5.62873
6.26214
6.90766
7.56419
8.23075
8.90652
9.59078
10.28290
10.98232
11.68855
12.40115
13.11972
13.84390
14.57338
15.30786
16.04707
16.79077

0.95
0.00393
0.10259
0.35185
0.71072
1.14548
1.63538
2.16735
2.73264
3.32511
3.94030
4.57481
5.22603
5.89186
6.57063
7.26094
7.96165
8.67176
9.39046
10.11701
10.85081
11.59131
12.33801
13.09051
13.84843
14.61141
15.37916
16.15140
16.92788
17.70837
18.49266

0.9
0.01579
0.21072
0.58437
1.06362
1.61031
2.20413
2.83311
3.48954
4.16816
4.86518
5.57778
6.30380
7.04150
7.78953
8.54676
9.31224
10.08519
10.86494
11.65091
12.44261
13.23960
14.04149
14.84796
15.65868
16.47341
17.29188
18.11390
18.93924
19.76774
20.59923

0.75
0.10153
0.57536
1.21253
1.92256
2.67460
3.45460
4.25485
5.07064
5.89883
6.73720
7.58414
8.43842
9.29907
10.16531
11.03654
11.91222
12.79193
13.67529
14.56200
15.45177
16.34438
17.23962
18.13730
19.03725
19.93934
20.84343
21.74940
22.65716
23.56659
24.47761

0.5
0.45494
1.38629
2.36597
3.35669
4.35146
5.34812
6.34581
7.34412
8.34283
9.34182
10.34100
11.34032
12.33976
13.33927
14.33886
15.33850
16.33818
17.33790
18.33765
19.33743
20.33723
21.33704
22.33688
23.33673
24.33659
25.33646
26.33634
27.33623
28.33613
29.33603

0.25
1.32330
2.77259
4.10834
5.38527
6.62568
7.84080
9.03715
10.21885
11.38875
12.54886
13.70069
14.84540
15.98391
17.11693
18.24509
19.36886
20.48868
21.60489
22.71781
23.82769
24.93478
26.03927
27.14134
28.24115
29.33885
30.43457
31.52841
32.62049
33.71091
34.79974

0.1
2.70554
4.60517
6.25139
7.77944
9.23636
10.64464
12.01704
13.36157
14.68366
15.98718
17.27501
18.54935
19.81193
21.06414
22.30713
23.54183
24.76904
25.98942
27.20357
28.41198
29.61509
30.81328
32.00690
33.19624
34.38159
35.56317
36.74122
37.91592
39.08747
40.25602

0.05
3.84146
5.99146
7.81473
9.48773
11.07050
12.59159
14.06714
15.50731
16.91898
18.30704
19.67514
21.02607
22.36203
23.68479
24.99579
26.29623
27.58711
28.86930
30.14353
31.41043
32.67057
33.92444
35.17246
36.41503
37.65248
38.88514
40.11327
41.33714
42.55697
43.77297

0.025
5.02389
7.37776
9.34840
11.14329
12.83250
14.44938
16.01276
17.53455
19.02277
20.48318
21.92005
23.33666
24.73560
26.11895
27.48839
28.84535
30.19101
31.52638
32.85233
34.16961
35.47888
36.78071
38.07563
39.36408
40.64647
41.92317
43.19451
44.46079
45.72229
46.97924

0.01
6.63490
9.21034
11.34487
13.27670
15.08627
16.81189
18.47531
20.09024
21.66599
23.20925
24.72497
26.21697
27.68825
29.14124
30.57791
31.99993
33.40866
34.80531
36.19087
37.56623
38.93217
40.28936
41.63840
42.97982
44.31410
45.64168
46.96294
48.27824
49.58788
50.89218

0.005
7.87944
10.59663
12.83816
14.86026
16.74960
18.54758
20.27774
21.95495
23.58935
25.18818
26.75685
28.29952
29.81947
31.31935
32.80132
34.26719
35.71847
37.15645
38.58226
39.99685
41.40106
42.79565
44.18128
45.55851
46.92789
48.28988
49.64492
50.99338
52.33562
53.67196