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Alexander Group Report - First Draft 12.16.13

Alexander Group Report - First Draft 12.16.13

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Published by stephen_mistler2763
The first draft of the Alexander Group report, received by DHHS 12.16.13
The first draft of the Alexander Group report, received by DHHS 12.16.13

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Published by: stephen_mistler2763 on Jan 17, 2014
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The second risk factor being considered is the PMPM growth factor. The middle value was
based on computations by the USDHHS Office of the Actuary. The low-end value assumes that
costs would grow by a full percentage point below that calculation. However, Maine’s fee
reimbursement is one of the lowest in the nation compared to private reimbursement rates,
which indicates there may be upward pressure to increase the rates. The high-end value is
based on historic inflation for medical services in New England states, as measured by the
Consumer Price Index.

PMPM Risk Factor Impact on Total MaineCare Budget Cost: The chart above shows how the
PMPM growth factors would impact the total cost of expansion.

Low EndMiddleHigh End

1.9%

2.9%

3.9%

PMPM Growth Risk Factor

The Alexander Group

Page 62

PMPM Risk Factor Impact on Total MaineCare State Funds Budget Cost: The chart above
shows how PMPM growth factors would impact costs for the state of Maine.

35.2

33.2

46.2

66.8

76.0

91.8

106.0

111.7

117.7

123.9

35.9

34.1

48.0

70.0

80.4

98.1

114.4

121.7

129.4

137.6

36.5

35.1

49.8

73.4

85.0

104.7

123.3

132.4

142.2

152.6

$-

$50

$100

$150

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

Millions

State Fiscal Year

Estimated StateCost of Expansion over Baseline

Low End

Middle

High End

Low End 10-Year Cost: $808 Million
Middle Case 10-Year Cost: $869 Million
High End 10-Year Cost: $935 Million

Assumes HigherFMAP for Childless Adults below 100% of FPL

The Alexander Group

Page 63

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