Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com Tax Revenues - 2013

Issue #17

Economic

M23.01.2014

(4390.9-4242.3-20)=128.6mln.GEL).

The completion rate of state budget in 2013 is 90.9%.Correspondingly, there is the lack of 632.3 mln GEL in state budget.1 During the three quarter of 2013, the indicator of Tax burden (tax revenues/GDP) (25.3%) has not changed much in comparison with the corresponding indicator for 2012 (25.7%). In November 22013, tax revenues increased in comparison with the November 2012 (3.6%). Revenues from Income, Import and Property taxes increased (19.4%; 17.6%; 11.4%) and the revenues from VAT, Profit and Excise taxes (-2.2%; -20.6%; -0.3%) declined. In the period of January-November 2013, the total revenue from VAT and Income taxes is 4242.3 mln. GEL. Taking into account GDP growth (2.6%) , which is based on the turnover of VAT payer enterprises) and inflation rates (-0.7%) in the mentioned period, the total revenue from VAT and Income taxes should have been 4390.9 mln. GEL. The volume of import decreased (-1.53%), which should cause decrease of VAT revenue approximately by 20 mln GEL. This indicates lack of 128.6 mln.GEL

1. Operative data 2. The data of December will be published on 31th of January.

Tax Revenues
800 750 700 650
mln.GEL

In November 2013, the volume of Tax Revenues increased in comparison with the same indicator in October 2013 (11.1%), as well as in comparison with the indicator in November 2012 (3.6%). In the period of January-November 2013, monthly dynamics of tax revenues did not change much, but

600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 May Jun 2012 Jul Aug 2013 Sep Oct Nov Dec

the total volume of tax revenues decreased (-1.3%) in comparison with the indicator of the corresponding period in 2012.

VAT Revenue
330 310 290
mln.GEL

In November 2013, the volume of VAT revenue decreased in comparison with the indicator of November 2012 (-2.1%).

270 250 230 210 190 170 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2011 Jun 2012 Jul Aug 2013 Sep Oct Nov Dec

tors of GDP, the production of which are not fully taxed by VAT (e.i agriculture,financial activity,education), also by the growth of export (it is exempt from VAT); by decrease of import (it is not included in GDP but is the base of VAT) or may be tax collection was not properly administered.

It is noteworthy, that in the period of January-November 2013 the VAT decreased (-7.6%), while GDP grew (2.6%) 1. This can be explained by the growth of those sec-

1. Forecast of GDP growth by GEOSTAT, based on the VAT payer enter-

prises turnover, fiscal and monetary indicators.

Outlook and Indicators

www.pmcg-i.com Tax Revenues - 2013
The growth rate of VAT payers' turnover and VAT revenue

Economic

NIssue #17

M23.01.2014

It is considerable, that the turnover of the VAT payer enter-

30% 25%
growht rate com pared to previous year (%)

prises increased (5.7%) in October 2013, the volume of import increased (22.1%) in November 2013, but the revenue from VAT decreased in November 2013 (-2.1%).
VAT revenue in November 2013 is determined based on the turnover of the VAT payer enterprises in October 2013, as they pay VAT by the 15th day of the next month. And also based on the volume of import, which is taxed by VAT. As both of these indicators increased, its interesting why corresponding indicator of VAT decreased.

28.1% 25.0% 17.6% 19.8% 17.2%

20% 15% 12.5% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%

4.0%

6.3%

10.7%

5.8% -1.6% -2.1%

5.7%

-2.7% -3.3% -5.6% -13.0% -17.7%

-1.5%

-5.3%

-14.8%

-24.8%

Sept

Sept

Apr

Aug

Apr

Nov

Aug

Dec

Feb

June

2013 Jan

June

May

May

March

2012 Feb

Turnover growth rate of VAT payers (compared to previous year)

March

Growth rate of VAT revenue

Income Tax Revenue

230 210 190 170
mln.GEL

In November 2013, income tax revenue increased in comparison with October 2013 (0.1%), as well as in comparison with November 2012 (19%).

150 130 110 90 70 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 May Jun 2012 Jul Aug Sep 2013 Oct Nov Dec

In the period of January-November 2013, income tax revenue grew (9.2%) in comparison with the corresponding
indicator in 2012, which is due to the onetime payment in March 2013.

Basic Economic Indicators

Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD)
Per capita GDP (USD) GDP real growth, percent Consumer Price Index (Annual Average) Foreign Direct Investment (USD) Unemployment Rate External Public Debt (mln USD) Poverty Level

I12
3414.8 759.2 6.60%

II12
3971.9

III12
4129 918 7.50%

IV12
4332.2 963.2 3,0%

2012
15 846.8 3 523.4 6.2% 99.1 911.6 15% 4357.1 9.7%

I 13*
3487.6 777.8 2.4%

II 13*
3958.4 882.8 1.5%

III 13*
4120.3 918.9 1.4%

Contact Information

883.1
8.20%

PMCG Research

Tamar Jugheli
E-mail: research@pmcg.ge
www.pmcg-i.com E-mail: t.jugheli@pmcg.ge T: (+995) 2 921171

261.2 -

217.7
-

199 -

233.7

226.2

232.4

238.7

Source:

National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia, National Bank of Georgia

*preliminary data

-2-

Nov

Oct

July

July

Oct