ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETS WHO WON, WHO LOST AND WHO LOOKED STUPID MARKET RUCTIONS II - THIS IS THE START OF SOMETHING BIG! A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSIE AND GOLD A QUICK TOUR OF ASIAN DATA THIS WEEK KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD

AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks
Dow S&P FTSE Nikkei Shanghai ASX 200

Weekly Change This Week

-0.88% 0.06% -0.63% -0.61% 0.00% -1.28% 15,699 1,783 6,510 14,915 2,033 5,173

Last Week
15,838 1,782 6,551 15,006 2,033 5,240

AROUND THE GROUNDS GLOBAL FX

Global FX
EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD AUDUSD USD Index

Weekly Change This Week

-1.37% -0.34% -0.87% 0.19% 0.96% 1.3487 102.20 1.6432 0.8758 81.25

Last Week
1.3675 102.55 1.6577 0.8741 80.48

AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIES

Commodities
Gold Nymex Crude Copper Bitcoin 10 year treasuries

Weekly Change This Week

-1.13% 1.67% -2.43% -0.53% -3.64% $ $ $ $ 1,242.30 97.23 3.21 947.00 2.65%

Last Week
$ $ $ $ 1,256.48 95.63 3.29 952.00 2.75%

THIS WEEK
WHERE JANUARY GOES SO GOES THE YEAR???

WINNERS
In this environment does anyone win besides owners
of Volatility?

EURJPY shorts perhaps Maybe Gold bears USD bulls The Fed 10s at 2.65% with another Taper

LOSERS
Sellers of Volatility again we have been talking about this for a while now Sellers of tin hats Yen Bears Nikkei Bulls Pundits who didnt recognise that earnings were baked in the cake

STUPID
PUNDITS, THE PRESS ANYONE WHO
DOESNT TAKE THE CARE TO WATCH THE WHOLE MARKET

WEEK II IS THIS THE START OF THE BIG SELLOFF?

WHERE ARE WE HEADED?

SPX VIX SURGES

SPX VIX BUT!

AS WE NOTED LAST WEEK VOLATILITY CLUSTERS LETS TALK ABOUT MINSKY AND MANDLEBROT

PLEASE READ

HTTP://WWW.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM.AU/THEEMERGING-MARKET-CRISIS-COULD-GET-MUCHWORSE-2014-1

BRAZIL IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE

CANARY IN THE COAL MINE MAYBE THE TURKISH LIRA IS ABOVE LAST WEEKS SILLY RATE HIKE ITS JUST LIKE THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE 1990S

RAND, RUPEE AND OTHERS

ITS ALL ABOUT PORTFOLIO FLOWS

HOW LONG HAVE WE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS?

SO EM RESERVE MGRS ARE CIRCLING THE WAGONS

FROM WESTPAC
US Federal Reserve custody holdings for the week to Wednesday 29 January showed the largest fall in foreign central bank holdings of treasuries at the Fed since late June 2013. A net -$20.7bn was sold in the week, compared to -$6.2bn the week prior. This is a useful indication of the scale of the acceleration in pressure on emerging market currencies over the week, forcing a range of central banks to dip into their reserves to defend their currencies.

DOW JONES

BROKEN THE TRENDLINE BCK TO OCTOBER 2012

S&P 500 DAILY

JUST HUNG ON TO SUPPORT LAST WEEK

S&P 500 WEEKLY

STARTING TO LOOK TERRIBLE BREAKING BACK INTO THE PREVIOUS TREND

1738 THE TARGET

S&P 500 MONTHLY

ITS JUST UGLY

NUFF SAID I RECKON

TARGET 1625

WHATS IT MEAN?
THIS IS THE START OF SOMETHING LARGER MANDLEBROT AND MINSKY TELL US SO NOT TODAY, NOT TONIGHT BUT JUST LIKE GOLD EVENTUALLY

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USD INDEX Not Yet

BUT WE ARE GETTING THERE

EURO IT IS ABOUT TIME

THE EURO IS HEADING UNDER 1.30 DEFLATION IS COMING

EURO YEN GONSKI

THIS SHOULD HEAD TOWARD 130

AUSSIE DOLLAR TRYING

TRYING TO BUILD A BASE BUT IN A STRONG WEEKLY DOWNTREND EM WEAKNESS AUSSIES BIGGEST THREAT

NIKKEI FOUND SUPPORT

FOUND SUPPORT BUT CAN IT HOLD? 14,500 IS THE BIG SUPPORT

YEN ROLLING OVER

TREND LOWER SUGGESTING MORE EM WEAKNESS

GOLD Frustration!
ITS GETTING RALLY HARD TO BE BULLISH ON THE CHARTS ALONE $1,225 AND $1,215 KEY SUPPORT

A QUICK TOUR AROUND ASIA

China again the key with manufacturing looking like
it slipped back into contraction with the HSBC PMI printing 49.6.

WEEK AHEAD ITS HUGE

Chinese PMI was already weak, Aussie AiG PMI contracting and we get a raft out tonight from all
over the world

BoE and ECB meeting are super important Australian trade and retail sales as well as the RBA meeting tomorrow US non- farm payrolls