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Preface Abbreviations and conventions xv xvii
Introduction. International security, armaments and disarmament
3 3 5 11 15 15 18
I. Assessing the past year II. SIPRI Yearbook 2012: overview, themes and key ﬁndings Overview—Key trends and ﬁndings III. Looking ahead 1. Responding to atrocities: the new geopolitics of intervention
I. The challenge of civilian protection II. New paradigms for a new century: protection of civilians and the responsibility to protect Protection of civilians in armed conﬂict—The responsibility to protect—The relationship between protection of civilians and the responsibility to protect III. Libya and its aftermath: the limits of intervention? Implementing Resolution 1973: a case of overreach?—The geopolitical environment after Libya: potential for a new consensus? IV. The future for civilian protection Criteria for the authorization of military force—Measures falling short of coercive military intervention—Long-term preventive strategies—Developing appropriate institutional response capacities—Rethinking the concept of ‘national interest’
Part I. Security and conﬂicts, 2011
2. Armed conﬂict Overview
43 43 45
I. The ﬁrst year of the Arab Spring MARIE ALLANSSON, JONAS BAUMANN, SAMUEL TAUB, LOTTA THEMNÉR
AND PETER WALLENSTEEN
Domestic developments—External involvement—Conclusions Table 2.1. The Arab Spring, 2011 46
Average number of fatalities in non-state conﬂicts.5. 2001–10 Figure 2. Global trends in peace operations CLAIRE FANCHINI Figure 3. 2001–10 Sources and methods IV. non-state conﬂicts and one-sided violence.8. Numbers of armed conﬂicts. Organized violence in the Horn of Africa JONAS BAUMANN.6. 2001–10 Table 2. Non-state conﬂict.2. by region.9. Countries with the greatest change in Global Peace Index scores. The Global Peace Index 2012 Sources and methods 3. Number of personnel deployed to multilateral peace operations. 2001–10 LOTTA THEMNÉR AND PETER WALLENSTEEN 58 65 Armed conﬂicts—Non-state conﬂicts—One-sided violence— Organized violence: a comparison Figure 2. The Global Peace Index 2012 CAMILLA SCHIPPA AND THOMAS MORGAN 66 75 75 78 80 68 71 72 74 76 77 81 84 85 86 87 89 89 91 92 92 Table 2. by type of conducting organization. by category of organized violence.4. 2001–10 Figure 2. Number of multilateral peace operations. One sided-violence in 2010 Table 2. 2002–11 Figure 3. 2011–12 Table 2. LOTTA THEMNÉR AND PETER WALLENSTEEN 57 Armed conﬂict: the regional effects of Somalia’s instability— One-sided violence: abuses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region—Non-state conﬂicts: unrest in border areas Figure 2.1. by intensity. Non-state conﬂicts in 2010 Table 2. Subcategories of non-state conﬂict. Fatalities.3. by subcategory and region. Armed conﬂict. Armed conﬂicts in 2010 Table 2. 2001–10 Table 2.2.5. Map of the Horn of Africa III.3.6.vi SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 II. One-sided violence. 2001–10 Figure 2. MARCUS NILSSON. 2001–10 Figure 2. Patterns of organized violence. 2002–11 . type and region. Peace operations and conﬂict management Overview SHARON WIHARTA I. 2001–10 Table 2. Fatalities in one-sided violence.1.2.4. by actor and region.7. by type of actor.
Military expenditure by region. 2011 II. Key military expenditure statistics by region. The top 10 contributors of civilian police to multilateral peace operations.3.1.3. by international organization and by income group. New peace operations in 2011 CLAIRE FANCHINI 93 93 95 Sudan and South Sudan: the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan and the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei—Libya: NATO’s Operation Uniﬁed Protector and the UN Support Mission in Libya—Syria: the Arab League Observer Mission to Syria— Conclusions Figure 3. 2002–11 Table 4.2. 2011 IV.1. Global developments in military expenditure SAM PERLO-FREEMAN AND CARINA SOLMIRANO Table 4.4.CONTENTS vii Figure 3. Multilateral peace operations. 2011 Figure 3. Military spending and armaments. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2011 Table 4. 2011 CLAIRE FANCHINI 108 112 113 143 Table 3. Military expenditure Overview SAM PERLO-FREEMAN I. Number of peace operations and personnel deployed.4.2. 2011 Sources and methods Part II. 2011 4. Table of multilateral peace operations. Estimates of the costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars to selected participating states 147 147 149 150 152 153 156 160 . 2011 II. Regional developments in peace operations CLAIRE FANCHINI 96 106 Africa—The Americas—Asia and Oceania—Europe—The Middle East Table 3. by region and type of organization. Map of South Sudan and Sudan III. The economic cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars SAM PERLO-FREEMAN AND CARINA SOLMIRANO Table 4. including and excluding the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.5. The top 10 contributors of troops to multilateral peace operations.
Number of countries reporting their military expenditure to the United Nations. 2002–11—The report of the Group of Governmental Experts Table 4. 2008–11 VI. Military expenditure by country.10. 2002–11 Table 4. The reporting of military expenditure data to the United Nations. 2002–11 SAM PERLO-FREEMAN. by region and subregion.1. Military expenditure in Africa OLAWALE ISMAIL AND SAM PERLO-FREEMAN 162 164 167 Oil and counterterrorism in Algeria—Oil and counterterrorism in Nigeria—Developments in other countries V.7. NOEL KELLY. Military expenditure by country as percentage of gross domestic product. 2002–11 NOEL KELLY 173 174 181 The United Nations reporting system—Trends in reporting.viii SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 III. Military expenditure by country. JACKSON 182 184 187 188 195 202 214 217 217 . Western Europe and Central Europe. ﬁnancial years 2001. 2002–2010 Sources and methods 5. 2002 and 2006–11 Table 4. 2011 VII.6. Military expenditure data. CARINA SOLMIRANO AND HELEN WILANDH Table 4. in constant US dollars for 2002–11 and current US dollars for 2011 Table 4.5. Changes in military spending versus gross domestic product. The United States’ military spending and the 2011 budget crisis ELISABETH SKÖNS AND SAM PERLO-FREEMAN Table 4.8. US outlays for the Department of Defense and total national defence.9. 2005. ELISABETH SKÖNS. Arms production and military services Overview SUSAN T. 2009 and 2011–13 IV. Reporting of military expenditure data to the United Nations. Europe and the impact of austerity on military expenditure SAM PERLO-FREEMAN The crisis countries of Southern Europe—The implications of reduced spending Figure 4. in local currency. OLAWALE ISMAIL. 2007.
The Indian arms-production and military services industry SUSAN T. 2007–11 262 264 . Selected cybersecurity acquisitions by OECD arms-producing and military services companies. WEZEMAN Major supplier developments—Recipient developments Figure 184.108.40.206.1. JACKSON Table 5. by region. JACKSON AND MIKAEL GRINBAUM India’s arms industry structure—India’s arms production framework—India’s military services industry—Conclusions IV. Military services companies in the SIPRI Top 100 for 2010 III. 2010 SUSAN T. The military services industry SUSAN T. MARK BROMLEY. 2011 II. spin-offs and sell-offs in the United States—The debate on arms industry cooperation in the European Union— Diversiﬁcation into cybersecurity Table 5. 2010 Sources and methods 6. JACKSON The US National Defense Authorization Act for 2012— Acquisitions.4. Developments in arms transfers in 2011 PAUL HOLTOM. Arms sales of companies in the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies. PIETER D. WEZEMAN AND SIEMON T.1.CONTENTS ix I. 2002–10 Table 5. 2002–11 Table 6. The trend in international transfers of major conventional weapons. The 10 largest suppliers of major conventional weapons and their destinations. Regional and national shares of arms sales for the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies. Key developments in the main arms-producing countries SUSAN T.2. International arms transfers Overview PAUL HOLTOM 219 220 228 230 232 239 247 248 251 257 259 259 261 I. JACKSON Military services companies in the SIPRI Top 100—Developments in selected military services sub-sectors—Conclusions Table 5. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies in the world excluding China. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies. 2010 compared to 2009 Table 5.
9. The maritime dimension of arms transfers to South East Asia. The ﬁnancial value of states’ arms exports. 2006–10 Table 6. Policies on exports of arms to states affected by the Arab Spring MARK BROMLEY AND PIETER D.4.4. The 50 largest recipients of major conventional weapons. Reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms. Map of Armenia and Azerbaijan Table 6.x SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 Table 6. 2007–11 Table 6. Suppliers of major conventional weapons to states affected by the Arab Spring. the Philippines. 2007–11 Sources and methods II. States participating in international. 2007–11 III.8. 2001–10 . 2007–11 Table 6. The 50 largest suppliers of major conventional weapons.6. WEZEMAN Maritime security in South East Asia—Arms transfers related to maritime security Figure 6. Suppliers of major conventional weapons to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Singapore and Viet Nam. Map of South East Asia Table 6.7. The 10 largest recipients of major conventional weapons and their suppliers. regional and national reporting mechanisms on arms transfers.3. Arms transfers to Armenia and Azerbaijan. 2007–11 PAUL HOLTOM 266 270 272 273 275 276 280 282 281 286 Armenia—Azerbaijan Figure 6. Malaysia. 2009–11 VI. Suppliers of major conventional weapons to Brunei Darussalam. 2001–10 Table 6. WEZEMAN Table 6. Transparency in arms transfers PAUL HOLTOM AND MARK BROMLEY 287 287 293 The United Nations Register of Conventional Arms—National and regional reports on arms exports Figure 6. Reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms.10. 2007–11 V. 2007–11 IV. Indonesia.2.2. by region. 2001–10 MARK BROMLEY 294 294 299 303 304 Table 6. The ﬁnancial value of states’ arms exports according to national government and industry sources. 2007–11 SIEMON T.5.3.
VITALY FEDCHENKO. KRISTENSEN Strategic bombers—Land-based ballistic missiles—Ballistic missile submarines and sea-launched ballistic missiles—Non-strategic nuclear weapons Table 7. KRISTENSEN Nuclear modernization—Nuclear strategy and planning— Land-based ballistic missiles—Ballistic missile submarines— Non-strategic nuclear weapons Table 7. British nuclear forces. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M.6. KRISTENSEN The British–French nuclear cooperation agreement Table 7. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. January 2012 III. Chinese nuclear forces SHANNON N. January 2012 VII. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Land-based ballistic missiles—Ballistic missile submarines— Aircraft and cruise missiles Table 7. Russian nuclear forces. Russian nuclear forces SHANNON N.1. KRISTENSEN Strike aircraft—Land-based missiles—Sea-based missiles Table 7. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. January 2012 I. KILE. KRISTENSEN Table 7. KILE.2.8. Pakistani nuclear forces SHANNON N. January 2012 II. January 2012 V. January 2012 VI. KILE Table 7.5.4. World nuclear forces. World nuclear forces Overview SHANNON N. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. January 2012 307 307 308 309 310 315 316 322 324 325 326 327 328 332 334 337 338 . KILE. British nuclear forces SHANNON N. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. Indian nuclear forces SHANNON N.7.CONTENTS xi 7. KRISTENSEN Strike aircraft—Land-based missiles Table 7. Pakistani nuclear forces. US nuclear forces SHANNON N. January 2012 IV. French nuclear forces SHANNON N. French nuclear forces. KILE. KILE.3. KILE. Chinese nuclear forces. Indian nuclear forces. US nuclear forces. KILE.
KILE 374 356 357 353 353 355 363 366 . KILE The IAEA’s assessment of alleged Iranian military nuclear activities—New US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran—IAEA Board of Governors resolution on Iran—Status of Fordow enrichment plant IV. as of December 2011 Part III. 2011 8. arms control and disarmament.10. KILE. notiﬁcations and inspections— New START and missile defence—Next steps after New START Table 8. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. Non-proliferation. North Korea’s nuclear programme SHANNON N. Signiﬁcant uranium enrichment facilities and capacity worldwide. North Korea’s military nuclear capabilities SHANNON N. as of 5 February 2011 and 1 September 2011 II. Russian–US nuclear arms control SHANNON N. Global stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU). as of December 2011 Table 7. Global stocks of separated plutonium. Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation Overview SHANNON N. January 2012 IX.11. Russian–US nuclear arms reduction treaties’ force limits Table 8.2. PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. Global stocks and production of ﬁssile materials. Syria and nuclear proliferation concerns SHANNON N. Signiﬁcant reprocessing facilities worldwide. 2011 Table 7. KRISTENSEN Table 7. 2011 ALEXANDER GLASER AND ZIA MIAN 341 342 343 345 346 347 349 350 Table 7.1. KILE. KILE Implementation of data exchanges. KILE I. KILE III. Israeli nuclear forces SHANNON N.xii SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 VIII. KRISTENSEN X. Iran and nuclear proliferation concerns SHANNON N. Israeli nuclear forces. 2011 Table 220.127.116.11. Russian and US aggregate numbers of strategic offensive arms under New START.
Chemical weapon arms control and disarmament JOHN HART Destruction of chemical weapons—Political tension III. Limiting the military capabilities of others: developments in arms export control MARK BROMLEY AND GLENN MCDONALD 425 Export control regimes—The European Union—Regional efforts to control small arms and light weapons in the Americas and . Chemical and biological warfare prevention and response JOHN HART 409 Scientiﬁc research—Future implications of science and technology 10. Conventional arms control Overview IAN ANTHONY 415 415 417 I. KILE UN Security Council Resolution 1977—Extension of the Group of Eight’s Global Partnership programme—The P5 states’ discussion of multilateral arms control 9. International cooperation on non-proliferation. arms control and nuclear security SHANNON N. Developments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group SIBYLLE BAUER 376 Revision of the guidelines for export of sensitive technology— Other Nuclear Supplier Group discussions during 2011—The future of nuclear export controls VI. Allegations of chemical and biological weapon programmes JOHN HART 406 North Korea—Iran and Libya—Syria IV.CONTENTS xiii V. Biological weapon arms control and disarmament JOHN HART II. Reducing security threats from chemical and biological materials Overview JOHN HART 387 391 391 393 397 I. Limiting conventional arms for humanitarian reasons: the case of cluster munitions LINA GRIP The Fourth Review Conference of the Certain Conventional Weapons Convention—The Convention on Cluster Munitions— Prospects and challenges II.
Multilateral arms embargoes in force during 2011 IV.xiv SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 Europe—The United Nations Programme of Action on small arms and light weapons III. Bodies with a regional focus or membership III. Bodies with a global focus or membership II. Chronology 2011 NENNE BODELL About the authors Errata Index . Multilateral arms embargoes PIETER D. Arms control and disarmament agreements NENNE BODELL 455 456 472 482 487 487 494 505 509 525 533 534 I. Bilateral treaties Annex B. Regional treaties III. Universal treaties II.and security-building measures HANS-JOACHIM SCHMIDT AND WOLFGANG ZELLNER Conﬁdence building in South America—Revision of the Vienna Document—Blockade of the Open Skies Consultative Commission 447 439 442 431 Annexes Annex A. International security cooperation bodies NENNE BODELL I. Strategic trade control regimes Annex C. Limiting conventional arms to promote military security: the case of conventional arms control in Europe HANS-JOACHIM SCHMIDT AND WOLFGANG ZELLNER The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe—Subregional arms control in South Eastern Europe—Prospects and challenges V. WEZEMAN AND NOEL KELLY Libya—Syria—Other multilateral arms embargoes—Embargo violations Table 10. Conﬁdence.1.
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