) :

Rent Seeking Activities and The Political Economy of the Paddy

Pledging Market Intervention Measures

(...)
2553

) :

Rent Seeking Activities and The Political Economy of the Paddy

Pledging Market Intervention Measures

)
2553


 (TDRI)
(...) 

... 
 ::
: :
:: 
(...) 

 
 :
:  :



) :


:
(welfare cost)
( ) 

 :

2548/49  
: 
2551-2552
5.24 2548/49
(implicit cost) 51,758.26
19,130
 :
-16,609.94
-17,720.99  : : 
 :
56 63 :
 ( )

 
 
15,853
3,276.8
:  37.25

 18 4.2
23.4 
: :
: :
 ( 55
) : 


:
(contingent liability)
(  )
 : 

(social cost) : 

  :


:

 
1

 

:
: (:
) :
10
82  
10 10 :
: : :
ii

 : : 
 
(re-insurance)
: :
 :
::

: : :

iii

Abstract
Rent Seeking Activities and The Political Economy of the Paddy Pledging Market
Intervention Measures
The objectives of this study are three-fold. Firstly, the study will estimate the cost, revenue,
loss and welfare cost of the paddy pledging program in year 2005/06. The second objective is estimate
the economic rents that are captured by participants of the program, i.e., farmers, rice millers,
warehouse owners, surveyors, exporters and government officials. Their rent-seeking activities,
including corruption behavior, will also be described. Finally, the economic impact of the paddy
pledging program on production cost, quality of rice, export competitiveness and rice market structure
will be also analysed. The study uses the paddy pledging program in 2005/06 as a case study because
all of the rice in this program was sold old and the high guarantee price which resulted in a large
amount of pledged paddy is similar to the situation in 2008-09.
The costs of the program, which include the financial and some implicit cost, are estimated at
51,758.26 million baht and the loss is 19,130 million baht, of which 15,853 million baht are economic
rent, and the rest are the operation costs and storage loss. The welfare cost is slightly lower (16,60917,721 million baht). Although the consumers had to pay higher rice price, the farmers who did not
participate in the program also benefited from the higher paddy price.
The differences between the guaranteed prices of paddy and their market prices as well as the
fact that the prices that government sell their rice are lower than the market price generate the
economic rents for those involved in the program. The other sources of rents are the milling fee and
warehouse rental costs which are higher than the market rates. The study finds that the farmers capture
as much as 37.25% of the loss. About 23.4% of the rent is captured by exporters, 18% to the rice
millers, 4.2% to the warehouse owners and surveyors, and 17% are the loss due to storage and
operating expenses of the program. The politicians and government officials share parts of the rents
accrued to rice millers, warehouse owners and exporters. This study did not provide the estimates due
to data unavailability. Since most of the benefits (55% of rent) did not go to the farmers, the paddy
pledging program is the costly policy of subsidizing farmers. In addition, most of the rents are
captured by the well-to-do farmers in the irrigated areas, and a few large-scale exporters.
Various kinds of rent seeking activities are identified in this study, some of them include the
adoption of short duration varieties (70-75 days) which negatively affect rice quality, and the excessive

capacity expansion of rice mills. These activities are rent dissipating. In addition, the program is also
plagued with corruption at all stages of intervention. In stead of dissipation of real resources,
corruption is the outright transfer of money. These activities may have negative impact on economic
growth.
Finally, since the government has become the largest rice trader, the program has resulted in
negative impact on cost of production, export competitiveness and competition in the rice markets.
For these reason, the paddy pledging program should be abolished.
This study recommends a quasi put option program as a direct means to subsidize the
farmers. Its objective is to provide a price insurance policy for the farmers so that they do not suffer
loss from their paddy sale. The new policy does not aim at shoring up the market prices of paddy.
Every farmer, including those who do not have the marketable surplus, can insure their crop up to a
maximum of 10 to 20 ton per household. One major advantage of this policy is that the government
will not involve in the rice business. If the market (or reference) price is lower than the insured price at
the harvesting time, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives will pay the difference to
the farmers. The farmer do not sell any rice to the government as in the case of paddy pledging
program. Therefore, the competition in the rice markets will be restored.

vi


....................................................................................................................................................................... I
........................................................................................................................................................................................ I
ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................................................................V
) 1 ................................................................................................................................................................................1
1.1 .................................................................................................................................................................................1
1.2 ...................................................................................................................................................................3
1.3 ......................................................................................................................................................3
) 2 ..............................................................................................................7
2.1 : :.........................................................................7
2.2 .......................................................................................................................................9
2.3 ........................................................................................................13
2.4 : 2548/49 ...................18
2.5 2548/49 .................................................................................................25
) 3 2548/49 ......................................................................................27
3.1 ...........................................................................................................................27
3.2  ......................................................................................................................34
3.3 .....................................................40
3.4 ......................................48
) 4 ) .............................57
4.1 ...........................................................................................................58
4.2 .............................................................................................................60
4.3 ..........................................................................................63
4.4 .......................................................................................................64
4.5 : ........................................................................................67
) 5 ..............................................................................................................................71
5.1 ................................................................................................................................................................................71
5.2 .............................................................................................................................................71
5.3  ........................................................................................................72
...............................................................................................................................................................................87
....................................................................................................................................................................................91


 2.1
 2.2
 2.3
 2.4

 .. 2524/25-2552...............................13
 ...............................................................................15
2548/49 .............................................................22

2548/49 ..........................................................................................................................................25
 3.1 2548/49 ...........................................27
 3.2 2548/49 31 2552 ...................29
 3.3 : ..........................32
 3.4  ...........................................................................38
 3.5 
2548/49 .......................................................................................................................39
 3.6 ..........................40
 3.7  ..............................43
 3.8  2548/2549........................................46
 3.9 2 ............................................47
 3.10 ............................................................................................51
 3.11 ..........................................52
 4.1 (/) .........................................................................................65
 5.1  
( 350,000 ).......................................................................................73
 5.2  ..........................................79

viii


 2.1
 2.2
 2.3
 2.4
 2.5
 3.1
 3.2

........................................14
...................................................15
.......................................................17
.....................................................18
2548/49 .......................................21
2548/49......................................................................................35
:
( )........................................................................41
 3.3 6 2551 2552.........................................51
 3.4
10 2549/50 ..................................................................................................53
 5.1 : .......................................................................................................................................78

ix

) 1

1.1


 
 ( 10
2547 29 2548 2-4 2552
2548 ) . 
 
 x

 

x 
  
 
:
: 
( ) 1 




1


 :
 :  :


 



 (:) 

: : 
:  
2 :: : 



:



:


:  
   


:  
: : : 


2


1.2
1) 
:
 

2)
:
3) :
(economic loss) 

::
4) 


1.3
: ( )  :


 :: 3
() () 
3 () 
x
() () ()

2548/49 
: 

: 
 

3


 2551-2552


  
 : ()
() 
(: ) 
()
: 1)  (explicit
cost)  2) (implicit cost)
 (  
  ) 

:  (Rent seeking
loss) 
::


::  (
) : :
:
: (welfare cost)
 (1)  (2)
(3) (4) (5)
(6) (7)
 (Rent seeking activities)
Tullock (1967) Krueger (1974) Bhagwati (1982) 
 (real resources) 
 : 
4


 :  

 3 - 4

5


) 2

:: 


:  2.2-2.3  2.4 2.5
2548/49

2.1 : d)
: (price support policy)
: 2508 : (support price)
 : 2512 2515
: 2  13.4 (Siamwalla
1987)
: 2518  :


 (...) :

(.)  : :
(Siamwalla 1987)
2523/24  : 


( 2537 Siamwalla1987) : :
( ) :
x  (2527) ... 2526
( 54) ( 27) 6
13

 2524/25  . 4.5
 : 3 | .:
: 10
: : 2526 : : 2527
200
:: 
 

: 2529 ( 2531)
  : 
  :
2524/25
  
(...)  :  80  :
...
(3-4 ) :
  : :
 

:: 2544 :
...  
 2544/45 
 :
1.68 2547 

( ) : (price support) 
 :

.
... 
8


 (...)

... 80
  
:
 
:

2.2
20 4 
(...)  2524/25
 ... .
. 
80  .
100,000 ... : 13
 :  ...
: ... : (
2549) 2524/25 69
410 
2525/26 2527/28 ( 2551)
2529/30  5,000
 ...
 : ...
:  ...  3
6
2530/31 ... : 3

(2551)
 :

9


 (  2.1) :
2529/30 360,269 2,275,939
:: 3,809.6 :
:: ... 
:  :
:: 
10 :  10
: : ... :
2534 : :
:  
5 : 
90 6
2536/37 2540/41
:
40-50 (
2551)  (
2547) 2535/36 
90 :
... ( 2537) 
 : 1 3.38 2535/36
2541/42  
95
27  
5

: : : 
2526/27 2527/28   2529
( Siamwalla 1987)
6
 
: 
 3  

10


 2543/44  
 :
  100
1.62
2544 ...
... 
... .  ... .
 :
: 2.5
 : 2544 5
....

. ...
3 
2544

  2544/45
 : ()
2544/45  : 2.5 8.7
100 2547/48 2548/49 
: 9 () 
30 
 
: 
 : :
(price support) :  

 : 2547/48 1 3 :
 : :

11


(contingent liability)7 () 
(   4

2552)
2549/50 2550/51

2551 :
14,000 
.. 2551
:  45
  2551/52 
 12,000
  3
x
2552  11,800
 ( 2.1)

.
 ..2534  5,000 ( 2541
2543 2547-50 2,000 ) ...
2551/52
:
:  15 2550 19 :
... 98,975.35 28,891.97
... 2551

12


) 2.1 ) .. 2524/25-2552

) /
2524/25
... 80 100,000
: 13 ( .)
2529/30
:  ... 3
6

2530/31
: 3
2533/34
: : 
. (.) 2534/35
 80 90 
2536/37
2 
... 3 : . .

2541/42
 90 95
2542/43
 . ...
.:
2544
 ...
2544/45
 2.5 8.7 100

2547/48
  : 9
30
2549/50

2551
: 14,000 2551
12,000 2551/52
2552
11,800
2552
 :

2.3
: 
 

(price support) :
13


 2544/45 100
  1.6
2543/44 4.3 2544/45 ( 2.2) 2547/48 2548/49
308 ( 2.1 2.2)
 :

2543/44 2552
 : 8 2543/44 19 2544/45 38
2547/48 :  8.3 2544 44.7 2551
66.6 2552 ( 2.2) : 255152 
) 2.1
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

.. 52

.. 52

..51

..51

..51

..51

..50

..50

..50

..50

..-49

..-49

..-49

..-49

..-48

..-48

..-48

..-48

..-47

..-47

..-47

..-47

..-46

..-46

..-46

..-46

..-45

..-45

..-45

..-45

..-44

..-44

..-44

..-44

..-43

 : 2552 ( .)

 2547/48
: 2.2 ( 2 : :
5 : 2 1.7 )  

 2547/48 ( 2.2)

14


) 2.2
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

.. 52

.. 52

..51

..51

..51

..51

..50

..50

..50

..50

..-49

..-49

..-49

..-49

..-48

..-48

..-48

..-48

..-47

..-47

..-47

..-47

..-46

..-46

..-46

..-46

..-45

..-45

..-45

..-45

..-44

..-44

..-44

..-44

..-43

 

 : 2552 ( .)

) 2.2 )

2524/25
2525/26
2526/27
2527/28
2528/29
2529/30
2530/31
2531/32
2532/33
2533/34
2534/35
2535/36
2536/37
2537/38
2538/39
2539/40
2540/41
2541/42

15.76
14.77
16.94
17.27
17.93
16.83
15.27
17.88
18.48
14.90
17.52
17.30
16.48
18.16
17.73
17.78
18.79
18.66

0.00041
0.00145
0.00024
0.09047
2.2759
0.3491
0.5173
1.0819
0.7984
1.0602
3.3833
1.2027
1.4029
1.1822
0.8651
0.7864
0.6773

0.003
0.01
0.00
0.52
13.53
2.29
2.89
5.86
5.36
6.05
19.55
7.30
7.72
6.67
4.87
4.19
3.63

2525
2526
2527
2528
2529
2530
2531
2532
2533
2534
2535
2536
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542

2.02
2.10
2.61
2.63
2.33
2.04
2.77
3.38
2.12
2.29
2.88
2.62
1.96
2.95
4.29
4.55
4.79
4.34

15


) 2.2 ) ()

2542/43
2543/44
2544/45
2545/46
2546/47
2547/48
2548/49
2549/50
2550/51
2551/52

19.02
19.79
22.41
21.57
23.14
22.65
23.36
22.84
23.31
23.71

0.6978
1.6185
4.2981
3.5875
2.5384
8.6497
5.2478
1.2854
0.2395
5.3518

3.67
8.18
19.18
16.64
10.97
38.19
22.47
5.63
1.03
22.57

2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552

5.16
6.06
5.62
6.43
6.33
5.89
6.75
6.80
8.79
7.76

0.50
1.84
2.04
0.86
0.80
2.17
1.64
3.93
5.17 *

8.25
32.74
31.73
13.59
13.58
32.15
24.12
44.71
66.62

: *
 : Office of Agricultural Economics, Thailand; Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives; Public Warehouse
Organization, Ministry of Commerce, Thailand

:
()  

() 

( 3 4 )
 
 ( 3 4) :
: : ()
 2.3 ( )
Poaponsakorn (2009)
 : 10 6

16


) 2.3
1,400,000
1,200,000

10
Export

9
stock

1,000,000

800,000

6
5

600,000

400,000

3
2

200,000

1
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul08
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09

Jan
-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul06
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan
-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul07
Sep
-07
Nov
-07

 : 2552 (  2)

()  : 2544/45
 3.3 2542
6.9 2543 30 2544 60.7 2551/52
 : WTO :
2543 44 (aggregate measure of support) :
 WTO
() 2540
  (ADB 1998;
Sriboonchitta 1998; Siamwalla 1994) 2544/45
(Poapongsakorn 2008) 
 :
2544/45 

:
2552  12,000 11,800
( 67)
2552
: ( 2.4)
17


) 2.4
1,200

Thai 100-percent Grade B

US Southen long grain milled

1,000
800
600
400
200

. . -0
5
. . - 0
. 5
. -0
5
.-0
. 6
. .-0
6
. . -0
6
. .-0
. 6
. - 0
6
. .-0
6
.-0
. 7
. .-0
7
. .-0
7
. . -0
. 7
. - 0
7
. . -0
7
.-0
. 8
. .-0
8
. . -0
8
. . -0
. 8
. - 0
8
. . -0
. 8
-0
. 9
. -0
9

()
1,200

Thai 5-percent

Vietnam 5-percent

1,000
800
600
400
200

. .- 0
5
. .- 0
. 5
. -0
5
.-0
. 6
. .-0
6
. .- 0
. 6
. -0
6
. .- 0
. 6
. -0
6
.-0
. 7
. .-0
7
. .- 0
7
. .- 0
. 7
. - 0
7
. .- 0
7
.-0
. 8
. .-0
8
. .- 0
8
. .- 0
8
. .- 0
8
. .- 0
. 8
-0
. 9
.- 0
9

()
:  3
 : Creed Rice Market Report, Creed Rice Co., Inc., Houston, Texas.

2.4 d
2548/49
2548/49 ( 2548)
(.)  
 
(.) 
. 
(:  2.5) .:
2548/49 
18


: : 

( )
 

 (...) 

 .  .
: 
20 ... 4
x ...
(.) 
 ... 
. :: 
50 
: 20  :
50  ( 2.3)



.   
2548/49 

400 
: (400 )
9  
:  . 
9


: 

19


 .


  
 
 :
.  :
10( 2548)
216 6 20 14
6 16 (:) 36
6 30 (:) ( 2548)

: 3 ...  :
... 
... : 3
 :
 
:  

10


:

20


) 2.5 2548/49

 :  2548

21


:
x ...  x .

 ...:

...
:
20
 250 ( 2549) ...
  :

.  :: . : ...
 .  .
(Surveyors) :
 
 " "
 
: 
 
) 2.3 2548/49

1.
1.1)

...

1.2)

20

1.3) :

: 
: : :

22


) 2.3 2548/49 ( )

2. )
2.1)

1) 50
 : 20 

2) :
50  
3)
4) 
5) 

6)
  90 20 /
7) 
 () .

2.2)

2.3)


400 2 :
7
 

3. )
3.1)

1)  : 13% 
()  2%
2) ... 
 20

3.2)  
 1 : ...
20 1 :
3.3)
 250

23


) 2.3 2548/49 ( )

4.

1) 
./ :
2) : .
 216 /
6

5.
5.1) .

5.2) ...

5.3)
2548/49
5.4)
5.5)

5.6) 


5.7) . ()

1)

2)  .
1)
2) ... 6 



 


:

:

 : 2548

24


2.5 2548/49
2548/49
9 ( 5 3
1 :) : 2547/48
7,4007,480 34.4 6,750-6,787 5.1
( 1)
 : 624,428
61 5,247,837.65 58.9
 ... 2548/49
44,797.02 11,622.57
33,174.48 :
:: 1,164,447.67 22.19  10,706.55
762,904.16 64.46
7,436.136 
401,543.51 9.88
3,270.407 420,648 3.66
:: 4.08 :
( 2.4)
:  3
) 2.4 2548/49

()
()
()
() ()
()

1,183,552.55 11,622.57
762,904.16
7,436.14
64.46
420,648.39

4,064,285.10 33,174.45
401,543.51
3,270.41
9.88
3,662,741.59

5,247,837.65 44,797.02 1,164,447.67 10,706.55

22.19
4,083,389.98
 :  2552

25


) 3
2548/49
:
2548/49 
: : : :

 3.2
 3.3
 
 3.4 

3.1
: :
2548/49 
5,247,837.65  ...
44,797.02
11,622.57 33,174.48 
4,186.43 29,904.04 ( 3.1)
) 3.1 2548/49

.)
.)
.) :
.) :
:  2552

5,247,837.65
1,183,552.55
4,064,285.10
420,648.39
3,662,741.59

44,797.02
11,622.57
33,174.48
4,186.43
29,904.04

 ...  31 2552 2,348.51

2,005.62
94.68  ...
 
. 248.21
(.) 509.2
:  1,785.76 ::  .
1,234.87 
  3,318.61
: 
. 3,559.43 ( 2552)

6.8 45 30
4.02 25.23 30 (
(.) 2552)
:  
 2548/49 3 4
518.62  
: 138.69
657.31  11 
2  10   15 
( )
.
 - (financial cost) 
2548/49  31 2552
51,758.21 44,797.02
11

 :

28


: 6,961.24 (: )
32,628.26 ( 3.2) 19,130

  3,645.31
 9,877.53
6,226.77 :
: 
12
 3.2
 3.2  
: : (400 )
 (in-kind cost) 
( 20  3.2  3.7)
) 3.2 2548/49 31 2552

1.)
2.)

2.1)
2.2) ...

2.3) .

(/)

...
.) 1/
.) 2/
.) 3/
.)
.


.) Overhead 4/
.) 5/
.) 6/
.) 7/
1)
2) -
3) -
4)
5)

44,797.02
6,961.24
1,326.50
4.02
2,348.51
94.68

240

2,005.62

2,731.24

248.21

181.325

4,553.48
1,234.87
142.07
164.38
125.79
802.62
510.73
58.78
1.63
73.45
26.10

6.8

1,785.76

29


) 3.2 2548/49 31 2552 ( )

6) : 2 :
7)
8)
 8/
.)
.)
.)
.)
2.4)
9/
2.5) 10/
3.
+ (1.) +(2.)
4.)
) () + ()

 (/)
(Extra Economic Cost)
.)  11/
.) 12/

130.55
0.38
1.01
3,318.62
1,465.10
727.22
796.65
329.65
25.23
30.00
51,758.26
657.31
125.25
518.62
138.69

5.

32,628.26
24,745.56
509.06

6.

.) . 13/
.) : .
.)
...
.) .. 52
: 25% 20,560.24
14/
(5) (1) (2)
(/)

3,645.31

45
30

7,208.13
165.51
19,130.00

1/ 20
2/ ...  ...
4 4 (MRR (7.5%) + 1 3) x 4/12
3/ ...  ...
3 3 (MRR (7.5%) -1%- 3%)
x 3/12
4/ Overhead 35 .
(.)
: :

30


5/ : .
(.) 
::

6/  90
20 /
7/ 216 / 6 1) 20 / 2) - 3)
- 30 : 4) 14 / 6 

: 5) 16 : 6)
: 2 : 36 / 6 :

8/ 
: 

.  400
.  198.54
 20 1 ( 3.7)
. 36.25 1  6 :
217.5
. 100 . 15 1  6 :
90
9/
.
. 
. .
10/
( 2549)
11/    2 6 ()  3
10  4 15
12/ : 1 :   2  .
  :
1 .  
(11/12/)  ( 3.8)
13/
(.)
14/ 31 2552 2548/49 25%
20,560.24 : 8,050
: , (2548)  (2552)

31


.
:
3 4 :  3.3
 : :
 31 2552 :
2.79 : ... 
: ...
) 3.3 )d 1
2549
2550
2551
2552

(.. ..)

1.
... ( )
: ...
( + d ...)2

44,797.02
20,305.77
2,532.81
-

29,330.39
2,436.79
-

18,008.03
2,122.26
-

12,049.01
510.68
-

44,797.02

2. Operation Cost (2.1 2.5)

2.1

5,637.51
6,165.36

980.12
1,035.58

343.20
352.78

0.41
0.41

6,961.24
7,554.13

4.02
4.40

4.02
4.40

2.2 ...

2,138.35
2,338.56
94.68
103.55
2,005.62

181.33
191.58
-

28.84
29.64
-

2,193.41
38.05

181.33

41.61

191.58

(.. 48 .. 49)

...

.
.

(.. ..)

(.. ..)

7,602.54
52,399.56

2,348.51
2,559.79
94.68
103.55
2,005.62

28.84

2,193.41
248.21

29.64

262.84

32


) 3.3 )d 1 ( )
2549
2550
2551
2552

(.. ..)

(.. ..)

3,439.92
3,762.00
554.04
605.92
87.47
95.66
72.10
78.85
93.56
102.32
300.91
329.08
2,885.87
3,156.09
1,274.05
1,393.34
632.39
691.60
692.77
757.63
286.66
313.51
25.23
27.59
30.00
32.81

798.80
843.99
521.93
551.46
54.60
57.69
92.28
97.50
27.30
28.85
347.75
367.42
276.87
292.53
122.23
129.15
60.67
64.10
66.46
70.22
27.50
29.06
-

314.36
323.13
158.49
162.91
4.93
5.07
153.55
157.84
155.87
160.22
68.81
70.73
34.16
35.11
37.42
38.46
15.48
15.92
-

0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
-

4,553.49
4,929.54
1,234.87
1,320.70
142.07
153.35
164.38
176.36
125.79
136.24
802.62
854.76
3,318.62
3,608.84
1,465.10
1,593.22
727.22
790.82
796.65
866.32
329.65
358.48
25.23
27.59
30.00
32.81

50,434.53
55,741.16
328.32
359.06
218.88
239.37
109.44
119.69

980.12
3,851.02
305.96
323.27
278.15
293.88
27.81
29.39

343.20
2,779.47
23.03
23.67
21.59
22.19
1.44
1.48

0.41
2,057.39
-

51,758.26
64,429.04
657.31
706.00
518.62
555.45
138.69
150.55

(.. 48 .. 49)

2.3 .

. Overhead

2.4

2.5

3. (1) + (2)

4. Extra
) +
Economic

Cost
. 

(..
..)

33


) 3.3 )d 1 ( )
2549
2550
2551
2552

11,250.73
12,304.17
3,533.55
3,864.40
1,764.12
1,929.30
1,769.43

(.. ..)

15,799.45
16,693.36
15,799.45
16,693.36
1,783.21
1,884.10
14,016.24

(.. ..)

5,412.57
5,563.58
5,412.57
5,563.58
430.58
442.60
4,981.98

(..
..)

165.51
166.66
-

1,935.10
509.06
556.72
7,208.13
7,883.04
- 39,183.80
- 43,436.99

14,809.26
14,819.33
12,842.34

5,120.98
5,069.37
2,784.10

165.51
166.66
165.10
- 1,890.73

(.. 48 .. 49)

5. () + () + () + ()

. :

. ...

. .. 52

6. ( )

32,628.26
34,727.76
24,745.56
26,121.34
3,977.91
4,255.99
20,767.65
21,865.34
509.06
556.72
7,208.13
7,883.04
165.51
166.66
- 19,130.01
- 29,701.28

: 1 (ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield) 3 2.79

discount factor  ( http://www.thaibma.or.th/yieldcurve/YieldTTM.aspx)
2
... : ... (
2.79)
 : ...

3.2 )

:
 :
: ( )
 2548/49
 : (price support)
 
::  :
34


 : : :
:  3.1
 3.1  ()
OP1 : OQ1 ( )
 OP2 OQ2 ( )
: OQO : ( )
Q2 QO Q0ABQ2 ... ...
 : ... 
:
) 3.1 2548/49

S
P2

A
b

P1

dd

e
E

D + Qg
D

Q0

Q2

Q1

2548/49 5.24 22.5
:: 2 (
 3.1)  
 : 

35


 ( :) 12
 : :

( )
 : :
 (D) :
D+Qg   :
:: :

:  (producer surplus)
 (:) : :
(consumer surplus) 
: ( (CS)) + (:
(PS)) + () + ()
:
) % Welfare Cost
WC = CS + PS CG1 CG 2 + Sale
= ( a b ) + ( a + b + d ) ABQ 2 Q0 CG 2 + Sale
= d ABQ2 Q0 CG 2 + Sale

WC =
CS =
PS =  :
CG1 = ABQ2Q0 = 2548/49 :
CG2 = ... + . + +
Sale =

12

(OP2 3.1) 6,796.77  : 15%

7,100 5% 6,493.5

36


)
: d (P1),
:  (Q1) 
(Q0)  price elasticity of demand
price elasticity of supply
Price elasticity of demand

Qd
Q
P
P

P
P
P2 P1
P1

Q d 1

Q d
Qo Q1 1
d
Q1

. .(1)

Q s 1

Q s
Qo Q1 1
s
Q1

. (2)

Price elasticity of supply

Qs
Q
P
P

P
P
P2 P1
P1

 2 3 P1 Q0 Q1
2 : OQ2 Q0Q2 OQ0
: 2 P1 Q1 : 
:
) (price elasticity of demand)  
: (
) 2548/49 7.86 :
37


 15.5 23.36
: :
) 3.4 )

(2532)
(2543) 3/
(-0.12)
(-0.39)

(2532) 1/

(-4.00)

-1.43

-1.61

Suntayodom (1981) 2/

(-7.04)

-2.54

-2.72

 : (1) , .2532.:
. 
(2) . 2531. : : ,
. 24
(3) .2543. . Medium and long
terms Rice Supply and Demand.

) (price elasticity of supply) 

 (2521) 0.0453
(2543)  0.086

( 3.5)  3.5 -16,609.94
-17,720.99 :  (19,130 )
:  :
(producer surplus) 12,514 22,391
56 63 13 () 11,106 19,871 :: 51,758.26
13

 (22,391 ) (P1) 5,894.3

7,100 6,317.7
10,760.93 (6,493.5 )
(17.96 )   (12,514 )

38


  3.5
 


) 3.5 ) 2548/49
)

0.045

0.086

0.096

Q1
P1
CS
PS
CS+PS
CG1
CG2
Sale
Welfare
Welfare
Q1
P1
CS
PS
CS+PS
CG1
CG2
Sale
Welfare
Welfare
Q1
P1
CS
PS
CS+PS
CG1
CG2
Sale
Welfare
Welfare

- 1.61
- 2.54
23.22
23.27
6,375.07
6,664.61
-17,965.76
-11,996.30
20,243.17
13,515.10
2,277.41
1,518.80
-44,797.02
-4,797.02
- 6,961.24
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
32,628.26
-16,852.59
-17,611.20
-3,216.14
-3,360.92
23.09
23.19
6,387.36
6,671.07
-17,658.97
-11,839.86
19,904.18
13,341.75
2,245.21
1,501.89
-44,797.02
-4,797.02
- 6,961.24
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
32,628.26
- 16,884.79
-17,628.11
- 3,222.29
-3,364.14
23.07
23.17
6,392.98
6,672.64
- 17,531.13
-11,802.06
19,761.62
13,299.85
2,230.49
1,497.79
-44,797.02
-4,797.02
- 6,961.24
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
32,628.26
-16,899.51
-17,632.21
-3,225.10
-3,364.93

- 1.43
23.20
6,282.46
-19,871.47
22,391.53
2,520.06
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-16,609.94
-3,169.84
23.06
6,297.98
-19,485.96
21,965.36
2,479.40
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-16,650.60
-3,177.60
23.03
6,304.34
-19,340.12
21,802.85
2,462.73
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-16,667.27
-3,180.78

- 2.72
23.27
6,699.43
-11,277.46
12,705.04
1,427.59
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-17,702.41
-3,378.32
23.20
6,705.14
-11,139.19
12,551.82
1,412.63
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-17,717.37
-3,381.18
23.18
6,706.52
-11,105.75
12,514.76
1,409.01
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-17,720.99
-3,381.87

 :

6,292.2
: 3.5)

39


3.3
19,130
( )


:
)

 :
14  3.6
) 3.6

.. 2548

892,187

7,480

6,674

610,678

6,750

4,122

31,766

5,618

178

.. 2548

1,661,314

7,400

12,294

1,137,124

6,738

7,662

59,150

5,335

316

.. 2549

369,181

7,485

2,763

252,694

6,788

1,715

13,144

6,775

89

.. 2549

146,019

7,807

1,140

99,946

6,816

681

5,199

6,979

36

3,076,507

22,871

2,105,786

14,180

109,537

 :  (...) 2552

3.6 

14

:
(shadow price)  3.2
() 5,894 6,292  
: 3.6 


40


619

  22,871
14,180 619
37,670.30   ...
44,797.02 :
7,126.72  1,360.01 37.62
: ( 3.8)
: :
x 
:  : :
:    37.62
 
 :
3.8 
 

2 : :: 24
2548/49  : 60.6 2551/52 
 47 2548/49 15.9
2551/52 ( 3.2  5)
) 3.2 d
( )
)

) )
80

70

35

60

30

50

40

25

40

20

30

15

20

10

10

0
< 5.9 tons

6 - 14.9
tons

15- 28.9
tons

> 29 tons

0
< 5.9 tons

6 - 14.9 tons

15- 28.9 tons

> 29 tons

 :  2552

41


)

1) 400

1 ( )
: : 400
 
 
  20 1 :
198.54  3.7
: 2,192.31
2) ::

:  
36.25 1 6
: 796.65 100
15 1 6
90 1 :: 329.65
3) 20 .
90 : 125.79
: 3,444.40
 656.35 18 :
( 3.8)
::   
:
x x :
 
( ) :

42


 : 

  :

) 3.7 )
)
)

()
(/.)
( )
()
(/.)

450
9.9
4,457.17
540
9.9

170
8.12
1,380.59
90
7.9

40
7.67
306.85
30
7.45

72
5.38
387.35
80
5.18

30
0.25
7.50
30
1.35
660
6,539.46
660
+ ()
2,082.29
 ()
400.00
 ()
1,682.29
(.)
169.85
: (.)
620
: 15% 14% (.)
10
. ) (.)
610
.)
 (.)
(/ )
* 2548/49 2548
: (.) .2548

( )
5,348.60
711.00
223.50
414.40
40.50
6,738.00
1,389.40
400.00
989.40
99.89
640
10
630
20
198.54

 :


(  4)  :
( 5)
  

( :)

400-600  ( 20
43


3 50 ) 2,000 15 2548/49 323 :

 10.7
)

216 6 802.62 16 152.94
4.20 : ( 3.8)
( )
 


17 ::
1 
:  
18: 6
12
 :  2548/49
2.25 3.50
 ::

15

2550/51 38,725 ( (.. 2550)

.. 2535 )
16
 16 26.1
776.52 :: :
7 10 ( )
17
. 27 
42 ()
18
3,000 3,500 2552 (
)

44


: 
 

 
)
:
: (
) 1) . Overhead
2) .. 3)

(  3.2) 2,619.53  499.16
13.69 : ( 3.8)
) ) 19 d
3 4 (.. 2548
..2552)   518.62
 98.83 2.71 : 
: 
138.69  26.43 0.72 :
( 3.8)
)
:  
2
(-19,130) 

19

: 2 1
   
   2 2  10 , 15  3  4

45


 4,479.41  853.57 23.42

: ( 3.8)
 .20
:  
  
: . (
 3) 
2548/49 4,409.71
 841.60 : 21
 ( 4)
) 3.8 ) 2548/2549




I
 ( )
II
: ( )
III


()
7,126.72
3,444.40
802.62
2,619.53
518.62
138.69
4,479.42
19,130.00

()
1,360.01
656.35
152.94
499.16
98.83
26.43
853.57
3,645.31

( )
37.25
18.01
4.20
13.69
2.71
0.72
23.42
100.00

 :

 3.2 ::
1) = + ( 22 ())
2) = ( 2.3 ()) +  ( 2.3)
3) = 2.3 ()

20

 F.O.B F.O.B : 15
 (liquid)

21
 4 

46


4) = 2.1 ( 2.2 () + () + ()) + ( 2.3 () + ()) + 2.4 + 2.5

5)  = 4 ()
6)  : = 4 ()
 2

(-19,130 )  
: 7,196.42 
1,373.36
 3.9  :
7,126.72 7,196.42 4,409.71
4,479.42 :  3.8

 4
 x :
18.01  37.25
) 3.9 2
) 1

) 2

7,126.72
4,479.42

37.25
23.42

7,196.43
4,409.71

37.62
23.05

: (1)  

(2)

 :

:
(economic loss)
  
  Tullock (1967)
Krueger (1974) 
47


 ( ) 
( 4)

3.4 22
: 19,130 2548/49

:
) = :  
:    :
23  
: 75  24 
3 : 1  ::
  ( ::)
 : :
: 
)
: :
 30 2547/48 2548/49 23
2552 ( 2.22) 

 
: ( 2549)
 :  
   
22

 : 2551 52 : Poapongsakorn 2009.

23

2552 
( , 1 2552)
24
 5.62 8.79 (  9.4 ) 2545 51
:  : 6.16  :
: :

48


 (2552) 


 

) :
:
:  
 :  : 




: :
:: 2545/46
 x : 
: ( 4  ) :
 :  : 


) :

 ( 7-30
)  : 
:
( ) 
:
3-6 
( )

49


7 30 : 
 :
) :
 : ( 2.3  2) 2549
5.23 7.67 2552 2
 10
6 ( 2.3  2 Poagongsakorn 2009)
:
 :
( )
2552 ( , 19 2552) : 
:
 ( 2552) 2542/43
25
  

2551-52 (12,000 11,800 )
2552 7.67 ( 2552)
6 2552 27 2551
22 2552  : (  3.3) 
 
 2552

25


:  : 


50


 ) 3.3 6 2551 2552

2552

2551

22%

27%
54%

50%

9%
10%

Thailand
U.S.A.

20%
8%

Thailand
U.S.A.

Vietnam
Other

Vietnam
Other

 : , 2552


26 ()
 17
 3.10 4-6  
() 3-4 
( 4 ) () :
  :
4-6   :
 
  : 
: ( 4  )
) 3.10 ( )
2
) 3 - 4
) 5 - 6
) 7 - 17

1 2551
58.92
20.34
14.49
6.24

1 2551
58.10
31.42
5.76
4.72

1 2552*
47.31
26.92
8.00
17.77

 : 2552 * 15 2552

26

 :
:  

51


)
:
 
  
( Poapongsakorn and Isvilanonda 2008)  3.11

: 2548/49 2552  1
53 : 2548/49 84
2551/52
) 3.11
2548/49

 40,000
40,001-100,000
100,001-200,000
200,001-340,000
340,000

()

193,966
211,992
83,891
30,612
5,203
525,664

2551/52

()

( )

()

()

( )

5,163.48
14,036.56
11,809.74
7,966.56
1,819.60
40,795.95

12.66
34.41
28.95
19.53
4.46
100.00

29,181
55,343
46,462
31,856
21,514
184,356

784.51
3,783.81
6,724.98
8,351.00
9,042.32
28,686.62

2.73
13.19
23.44
29.11
31.52
100.00

: * . ... 624,428 ::...

.  :
. ...
 :  (...), 2552


 
2549
: 10 ( 1   10
) :  2548/49 
( 
)  3.3  20 (2 )
11.50  20
52


 2.2 
 20 23.5 
2.4
) 3.4 10 2549/50

25

15

5.32

10
5

13.91

Dry-season
(2006)
(2549)

20

0.84

1.53
1.34
0.85

Wet-season
(2549/50)

6.70

5.58

8.13

9.33

9.60

2.48
1.96
3

3.66
4

4.05

3.50
5

4.72
7

5.00
8

6.18

5.32
9

10

: 1 10% 
 10 10% 
 : Poapongsakorn and Isvilanond, 2008

53


) 4
)

 
: (real resources) 
(rent seeking activities) :
 :  :
(rent dissipation) 

 

27
:
 :

 4.1  4.2
4.3  4.4 
 4.5  

:

27

(Gordon Tullock (1967,1980) Krueger (1974) Bhagawati (1987)) 

:   :


4.1
: 2548/49 
: 489,553 2547/48 624,428 2548/4928 :
 :
(1) :  2551 

 255129 
: ( ) 30 :
 
(2) :
: 
: :
  : 
 : 
31

28

2546/47  210,460
( 100%)  : 368 2550
 990 2551 : 582
2551 556 2552 :
2551 14,000 2551/52 12,000
2552 11,800  2
30
(2552) 2550/51 - 2551/52 :
 : 0.06  :  8.63 
18.2 .. 2527/38-2541/42 22.1 2542/43-2551/52
31
 
29

58


(3)  :  (350,000
2552  500,000 )32 :
:  
(4)
: :
   70-75
 6-8 2  5 2 :

 : : :
2552 
2552 4 6  23,600
( 5 2552)
3

 7-8 2
 :: : 
:   : 
 
( Minot 1998) 10-20


 :
: : 
(Poapongsakorn and Isvilanonda 2008) :
:: ( :) :

32

2551/52  184,156 ( 3.4 )  73

60,000 : 

59


: ::: :33 (
 2545) ::  
:  :
 :
 () 
 :   
:
(private cost)
: (social cost) : 
: :  ::

4.2


 (
)  :
50 :
50
: 
35 (Titapiwatanakun 2008)
34

33

2551 :
:  18,422 :
37,020 ( : 27
2551)
34
  ( : ) 
 :
: ( : )
35
5-6  : 100 :
  
  : : (arbitrage)

60


 0.86 2530 1.62 2548

(   5 2552)


60 36

= 32 :
2551/52 745 111
2550/51 433 2549/50 323 2548/49
2552 521 278 255037
:
: 
() E : x
: x : 2552 
11,800  9,000 x
500 ( 2552) :
 x Tom Slayton 
2552 5

 
() : 
:    :
 
 2551
3 5 :::

:  

36
 100
:: 90  : 

37
2-3  

61


() :  2552
: 
2552 6 7.7 :
:
: :

  
() : :  

=

= : :
() 
x () /
 ::


 38 
 .  
200 2549 : :
. 50 39
x
 18.01 
 3 ( 3.8)  38
: 

38

2547/48
1 2548  49 (
29 2548 48)
39
2551

62


  : 
:

4.3

() (216 ) 
()
: () :
( ) (Surveyors)
/ 
   
: 40   3
() () ()
:

 .41
 :


 :

( 7-10  5 ) :
40

( 29 2548 )
2547/48 ... 918,341
84 46 55  54 57
 
  

41
. .
.

63


:  :
  

: 3 ( )
:

4.4

  ( 23.42) :
 : 
59 ( 2,642 ) 
 3 4 20 - 30 79 - 89
  42 :

: ( )

:
43 2551 2
58.92 ( 0.92 ) 2551 2
58.10

42

2551 17 2551 14 (:.. 2551 10 )

2552 17   5 1
, , , , .

43
  :


64



(concentrated benefits) :: :
  
::: (transaction cost) 
 :
 

 : 


(rent dissipation) :

: 
 4.1 :  

 
2  
 
 (
) 
 3 4 
) 4.1 (/)

) 1
2551
5%
10%

2551
5%
10%

4
) 2
) 3

) 4

11.00
9.82
13.50
15.80 - 16.80
14.00

11.50 - 12.00
11.05
14.00 14.35
18.00
12.00

11.35 - 11.50
14.00 - 14.20
10.50
-

11.30
13.60
-

15 - 16.25
12.10

16.05 - 16.55
-

15.6 - 16.55
-

16.05
-

65


) 4.1 (/) ()

15%
25%

2552
5%
10%
15%
25%

) 1
10.10
8.15
9.9 - 16.35
13 - 15.5
13.50
12.50
10.50
18.00
24.25
16.00 16.95

4
) 2
) 3
7.6 - 8.14
8.115
16.4 - 17.50
14.60
8.05
17.00
21.60 23.60
15.80 16.00

15.22
8.50
21.50
18.10
17.00

) 4
8.20
16.30
24.50
14.00

 : .

: 
: (1)
5-6   
:  
 (2) : :
. :
 6 2547 : (TOR)
: 5 :  :
: 1
: (
2548 11) ::  ..02/47
. 18 . 47  :  : 
: ( 2548 12-13
(3) (3):
( )
 2547
 :
(2548) 
66


 2547  . 3.62


 6 2547 (
2546/47) 77.2 ( 2544-2546) 34.4
: :

 
  

 

4.5 :


44



=


45 :

 

: 46
44

 : ( )

2552 :
45
:
46
- 2553 2
  

67


 : 2547
 : 
1.68 47
  5  : 162
: 2.2
: : 
. ... (x  , 10 2547)
:
2547 5,250
 5,000 2547/48 6,600
 6,000 
: 
 : 
 
: 48
:   
 49
2551 ( 14,000 ) 
(   )
2
1-2 : 
14,000   10,000
:

47

:
48
  

49
  2551 :
  

68


 x 
12,000
 :

2551 
:: 
(
2 4 2552)
 
:
:
2552 :

: 1.9
:: : :
 :  
 
5 18 ( 9 2553 : 7)
:  
3-6
50 ( 3.7 ) 400-600 (
 40,000  : 50
2,000 ) 4-6 10-15 ( ::
200 50-60 ) :
 

50

 1 2551/52 99,832 (
54) :: 184,356 84
:

69


 2552 : 
 2552 
 
51
: :
 Khan (2009) political corruption  


  :



51

(.) :
 18 2552 : 12 2552
.  17 2552 . 2
( 1 ) 
 1 2552   ...

70


) 5

5.1
:
(contingent liability)
( )
 : 

(social cost) : 
 
:

:

5.2
2 :
 

1 :
 :: :
:: :

 4 (1)
 ( 5.3) (2) 
(...) 

  :  52 (3)
:: 
(4) 
 :

: 2544/45
 

5.3 ) 53
) ) ?

  

 : 

 
(3.7 ) :


: : :
: : 2 ( ) 
:

52

: 
 :  20
: ... JBIC
 :
53
  2552
 75 2552

72


 : Black-Scholes
 5.1 :
()
54   :
 :
7,000 : 347
4.96

: 25 :
:
 (...
 )

) 5.1 ) )
( 350,000 )

(/)

(/)

d *
(/)

7,000

6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
6,500
7,000

149
347
649
1,036
1,479
1,952
2,439
22
75
192

8,000

7,500

54

) ( )
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
50
1

(1.85

6
3

)

(3.7
)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,999
4,499
2,414
1,485
743
17,929
8,964
4,810
2,966
1,483
26,668
13,334
7,155
4,442
2,221
35,405
17,703
9,500
5,909
2,954
43,823
21,911
11,758
7,370
3,685
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

 6,900

73


) 5.1 ) )
( 350,000 ) ( )

(/)

(/)

d *
(/)

) ( )
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
50
1


(1.85

6 3
(3.7
)

)
0
0
0
0
0

397
8,000
8,500
693
8,999
4,499
2,414
1,485
9,000
1,066
17,929
8,964
4,810
2,966
9,500
1,495
26,668
13,334
7,155
4,442
10,000
1,958
35,405
17,703
9,500
5,909
10,500
2,439
43,823
21,911
11,758
7,370
* : Black-Scholes
: 350,000 / 7,000-8,000
6,500-7,000
 :

743
1,483
2,221
2,954
3,685



 : 
:

: 25% 
 :
  
:
25  55
55

:


.

74


 ( )
 3.7
:

 
:
 
 : 
:


) d)
?
(1)  (2) : 
(3) ()
: 10 (4)
   
   
: ( 5.1)
:  
 
: 
: ( .)

: : 
: 2 :
x 2 : 
 : 

75


 ? 
... :  ( :
)  : 
 (exercising date) 
 56 : 
 :
:
:
... ?  ... 
: :
 :  ... 
... :
: ( ) : ...
  (
 )
) ) )
 ( ) 

(exercise date)  


  
25-30

56

  13 2552
 :
   
 

76


 = 

 
2  
:  :
25 30
= : :
10  :
( :
6,500 ) :
 
 :
   
: ( 
:
) 
: 

(exercise date)
 
 
: ... :
: 15 2552 15 2553


 :
  5 6
: 30 :

 :
10 82 
77


 10 ()  
10 10 :
) 5.1 d

...

...
.

...

)
 :
( ) 2552 8,000
6 ( 
) 1) 7,000 ( ) 2) 7,500 3)
8,000 4) 8,500 5) 9,000 6) 10,000
 ...
10 20
 

78


 2552/5357
 5.2 (1)  10
10,000 8,000
10 :: 23,686
 2.4
: 82  10 ( 5.2)
(2) 23,686
2548/49 ( 19,130 ) 
(2.4 )
 525,664  ( 52.9)
  ( 14.3 )
) 5.2 )

(/)
7,000

(/)
(/)
7,500
500
8,000
1,000
8,500
1,500
9,000
2,000
9,500
2,500
10,000
3,000
10,500
3,500
8,000
8,500
500
9,000
1,000
9,500
1,500
10,000
2,000
10,500
2,500
 (%)

10 /

5,922
11,843
17,765
23,686
29,608
35,529
41,451
5,922
11,843
17,765
23,686
29,608
82

()
20 /
30 /

7,145
7,595
14,290
15,190
21,435
22,785
28,581
30,380
35,726
37,975
42,871
45,570
50,016
53,165
7,145
7,595
14,290
15,190
21,435
22,785
28,581
30,380
35,726
37,975
95
98

40 /

7,774
15,547
23,321
31,094
38,868
46,641
54,415
7,774
15,547
23,321
31,094
38,868
100

:  2551/52 3.7
 1.3 ( ...) 2.4
 : : 
.. 2546

57

:  :
 

79


)
  : 2552 
7.67 ( : 2552)
 2552
 
2
(1)  2552
: (
) 
 15 2552 :
(2) 
: :: (floor) 
   :
) ) 8 d




: (3.5
)  

  x
 :
:


:

:


80


 
=

E


2552 
500,000 7 :
 AFTA 
:  1 2553 

= 
:  : :
:

  :
(Contingent liability)
4-5 : ...
: 2542 : 90,000
. ...
 (domestic subsidy)58 
 WTO  :







58

 :
()

81


5.4 .. 2552

 
 :
.  12 2552 
17 2552 .
10,000 : 6,969
200 40 : .
20 59 . 25

97 ( 5.2) 

2552 

: 2552 3.258  ...
x 2.54 ( 78 ) 23.9
 : 

 
.  . :

...   1
2552

59

15,300 14 14,300
16 10,000 25
9,500 16

82



60 
:
  
 ( 13 2552)
:
  :
  
 
2552 2552
2552  


 4
 :
:  
: :


2552 
 :
1)
( 2552/53) :  ( 2553) :
 
: 
 
60

: 12 2552
. 17 2552  1 2552
.

83


 ( 24 2552)
 :
( 2553)
 . 7
: 3 ( 
)   2553

 1
(  2)  ( 1)

 
 2553  

2 :
. : :
:  :
:
2) ) d)
::  
: :
:   
(.)
(...) :
:  2552 : 
 2553/54 
61

61

...  3-5

84


 
 ...
: 1-2 :
2553 ::
 
:  
 :  :
:
: :

: :::
3
 :   (social
entrepreneur)
: 
 ...  
(.) : :
 
 
:
:
:
3) 2552 
2 :  1 16

: 

:  
  (
 ) 
85


  
 
4) (exercise date) 2552 ...
 15 2552 2553
...   ( 2
)

::  
:
  

5) )
. . 
... .

x
6) d )
 : :: 
7)
(
 2552)
8)
9)
 ( : )
 
:
( :
  )   (hedging)
(spot market) 
86


 

:
 ( ) :
(domestic subsidy)
:
: :
: 10

87


.
2550. 2548/49
2549/50. .
. 2549.
. .
. 2546.
.
.
x  . 2527.
 2525/26. ,  2 ().
. 2521. " ".
,  27. :
.
: x . 2538. .
.
. 2550.
2548/49. .
. 2551. : . ( )
36 49.
. 2543. .
 .
. 2546. .
. .
. 2531. = :
. 24. .
. 2549.
. .
. 2547. .
.

 . 2552.
,  75 2552
. 2549. .
. .
. 2543. .
Medium and long terms Rice Supply and Demand.
. 2548.
2547.
.
. 2546.

. .
. 2537. .
.
. 2532. :
. .
. 2533.
. 
.
. 2531. 
.. 2503-2527.
:
: .

ADB. 1998. Thailand Agricultural Sector Needs Assessment Study. Vol.II-TA 3003-THA, Asian
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Krueger, A.O. 1974. The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society. American Economic
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Ministry of Planning and Invesment Vietnam and Medium-Term Industrial Strategy Project
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Worcester, Dean A. JR. 1970. New Estimates of the Welfare Loss to Monopoly, United States: 19561969. University of Washington.

89


) 1


)

/
)







.. 2543
.. 2543
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545

4,518.50
4,258.50
4,411.96
4,586.67
4,327.46
4,212.63
4,307.63
4,255.75
4,640.50
4,556.00
4,635.13
4,603.75
4,357.50
4,330.17
4,527.13
4,733.63
4,746.17
4,614.25
4,791.75
4,808.75
4,640.00
4,567.50
4,595.75
4,749.50

5,280.00
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
-

4,870.00
4,870.00
4,870.00
4,870.00
4,975.00
4,975.00
4,975.00
4,975.00
-

7,289.00
6,413.00
6,583.00
6,376.00
6,085.50
6,139.50
5,932.50
5,750.50
5,710.50
5,204.50
4,929.00
5,151.50
4,748.00
4,750.00
5,093.50
5,286.00
5,276.00
5,318.00
5,458.00
5,859.50
6,319.00
6,339.50
6,527.50
6,336.50

6,495.00
6,495.00
6,495.00
6,495.00
6,495.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
-

.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2546
.. 2546

4,721.38
4,617.75
4,814.00
4,821.00

5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00

6,271.50
6,361.00
6,055.00
6,619.50

6,800.00
6,800.00
6,800.00
6,800.00

) 1 ( )


)

/
)







.. 2546
4,713.17
5,330.00
7,322.50
6,800.00
.. 2546
4,653.25
4,975.00
7,771.00
.. 2546
4,664.75
4,975.00
7,984.00
.. 2546
4,765.25
4,975.00
8,311.00
.. 2546
4,768.25
4,975.00
8,454.50
.. 2546
4,620.00
8,788.00
.. 2546
4,592.00
8,097.50
.. 2546
4,517.75
8,447.00
.. 2546
4,459.75
5,330.00
8,025.00
7,000.00
.. 2546
4,525.75
5,330.00
7,974.00
7,000.00
.. 2547
4,758.25
5,330.00
9,318.50
7,000.00
.. 2547
4,736.25
5,330.00
8,834.50
7,000.00
.. 2547
5,095.75
5,330.00
9,271.00
7,000.00
.. 2547
5,351.67
5,250.00
9,457.50
.. 2547
5,407.00
5,250.00
9,249.50
.. 2547
5,372.00
5,250.00
8,546.50
.. 2547
5,497.75
5,250.00
7,957.00
.. 2547
5,909.75
7,717.50
.. 2547
5,812.00
7,417.00
.. 2547
5,738.25
7,185.00
.. 2547
6,061.00
6,600.00
7,407.00
10,000.00
.. 2547
6,157.00
6,600.00
7,636.50
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,307.50
6,600.00
7,885.00
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,325.75
6,600.00
7,955.00
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,854.33
6,600.00
8,028.00
10,000.00
94


) 1 ( )


)

/
)







.. 2548
6,677.50
6,700.00
8,000.00
.. 2548
6,711.33
6,700.00
7,913.50
.. 2548
6,724.00
6,700.00
7,688.50
.. 2548
6,618.75
6,700.00
7,696.00
.. 2548
6,602.75
7,995.00
.. 2548
6,703.00
8,013.00
.. 2548
6,879.75
7,882.50
.. 2548
6,750.00
7,100.00
7,480.00
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,738.00
7,100.00
7,400.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,787.50
7,100.00
7,485.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,815.50
7,100.00
7,807.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,831.25
7,100.00
8,168.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,787.50
7,100.00
8,190.50
.. 2549
6,680.00
7,100.00
8,305.00
.. 2549
6,656.25
7,100.00
8,298.50
.. 2549
6,720.00
7,100.00
8,705.00
.. 2549
5,976.75
8,970.50
.. 2549
6,516.00
9,022.50
.. 2549
6,012.75
8,980.00
.. 2549
6,050.25
6,500.00
8,460.00
9,000.00
.. 2549
6,144.00
6,500.00
8,275.50
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,330.33
6,500.00
8,680.00
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,416.67
6,500.00
8,787.50
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,345.96
6,500.00
8,932.00
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,967.00
6,600.00
8,954.50
.. 2550
6,197.25
6,600.00
8,903.50
95


) 1 ( )


)

/
)







.. 2550
6,275.25
6,600.00
8,960.50
.. 2550
6,275.00
6,600.00
9,025.00
.. 2550
6,291.75
9,025.00
.. 2550
6,266.25
9,057.50
.. 2550
6,269.50
9,120.50
.. 2550
6,650.00
6,700.00
9,348.00
9,300.00
.. 2550
6,933.50
6,700.00
10,261.00
9,300.00
.. 2551
7,006.75
6,700.00
10,965.50
9,300.00
.. 2551
7,919.25
6,700.00
12,145.00
9,300.00
.. 2551
10,546.50
6,700.00
13,119.00
9,300.00
.. 2551
13,632.00
18,259.50
.. 2551
13,325.75
17,418.50
.. 2551
12,396.00
14,000.00
15,110.50
.. 2551
12,372.00
14,000.00
14,730.00
.. 2551
11,862.00
14,000.00
13,657.50
.. 2551
11,892.00
14,000.00
13,761.50
.. 2551
10,826.25
13,649.00
.. 2551
9,353.75
12,000.00
11,351.50
15,000.00
.. 2551
9,422.50
12,000.00
12,040.00
15,000.00
.. 2552
9,875.00
12,000.00
13,412.50
15,000.00
.. 2552
10,300.00
12,000.00
13,881.25
15,000.00
.. 2552
9,450.00
12,000.00
14,175.00
15,000.00
.. 2552
9,721.88
11,800.00
14,212.50
.. 2552
9,600.00
11,800.00
14,075.00
 : , 2552

96


) 2

.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551

1)

2)

579,501
585,601
626,015
599,232
665,334
659,296
553,948
525,788
624,922
697,756
663,253
640,010
622,942
591,362
743,386
703,758
683,554
729,501
624,703
641,321
836,383
1,101,638
1,168,506
1,110,319
1,022,849
1,049,697
1,136,239

3.92
4.41
4.37
4.67
5.01
5.10
5.14
5.02
4.85
4.74
4.85
5.23
5.20
5.13
4.96
5.13
5.18
5.09
5.07
5.15
5.05
4.83
4.49
4.02
3.63
3.19
2.74
97


) 2 ( )

.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
 : 1)
2)

1)

2)

816,424
1,006,026
954,388
890,492
790,060
709,319
604,910
437,476
597,883
612,118
690,382
765,809
671,188
735,048
908,505

2.45
2.45
3.01
3.57
4.13
4.69
4.69
5.83
6.97
4.84
5.05
5.62
7.04
7.56
7.67

98


) 3
100%
d2
5%
5%
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B.

southern long gtain

milled
F.O.B. - US

.. 2548

292

286

347

278

.. 2548

294

288

346

292

.. 2548

296

289

345

303

.. 2548

286

280

336

308

.. 2548

288

282

338

320

.. 2549

299

293

353

343

.. 2549

307

300

369

354

.. 2549

310

303

374

353

.. 2549

310

304

387

358

.. 2549

315

308

386

364

.. 2549

319

312

391

364

.. 2549

323

315

403

371

.. 2549

321

315

409

395

.. 2549

319

314

410

406

.. 2549

312

307

406

418

.. 2549

310

305

406

419

.. 2549

317

311

423

.. 2550

321

313

420

.. 2550

325

317

417

.. 2550

320

321

441

405

.. 2550

327

319

439

400

99


) 3 ( )
100%
southern long gtain
d2
5%
5%
milled
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B. - US

.. 2550

329

320

439

397

..-2550

338

329

445

397

..-2550

345

336

457

392

..-2550

336

327

450

395

..-2550

332

323

448

413

..-2550

336

327

454

446

..-2550

349

340

480

475

..-2550

368

359

508

496

..-2551

399

389

545

518

..-2551

466

454

612

565

..-2551

567

554

711

664

..-2551

849

833

996

816

..-2551

990

973

1122

926

..-2551

870

854

1003

878

..-2551

831

814

923

854

..-2551

780

764

861

802

..-2551

764

749

824

791

..-2551

683

667

744

717

..-2551

591

576

689

664

..-2551

582

566

702

632

100


) 3 ( )
100%
southern long gtain
d2
5%
5%
milled
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B. - US

..-2552

611

581

764

592

..-2552

624

594

770

562

..-2552

637

608

768

513

..-2552

588

558

738

534

..-2552

556

526

732

513

..-2552

581

551

760

502

556

790

502

586
..-2552
 : 1)
2) USDA

101


) 4 2548/49
/d/)

(2)

/ /

19,870 18,250

-1,620

-4.45

18,250 -1,620

-4.45

0%

12,550

2,030

330.91

12,550

2,030

330.91

0%

10,650 12,550

1,900

62.08

12,550

1,900

62.08

0%

12,550

1,850

324.61

126

12,425

1,725

302.59

1%

141,000 16,500 17,650

1,150

162.15

177

17,474

974

137.26

1%

12,550

2,850

674.76

126

12,425

2,725

645.05

1%

200,784 17,600 19,002

1,402

281.56

380

18,622

1,022

205.25

2%

2,745

(1)

2550/2/.. 5% 32,673

2550/3/.. 5% 175,463 10,700

100% :2
5% 236,758
2550/6/..

9,700

100% :2
2549/6/.. 5% 163,012 10,520

2550/5/..

2549/4/..

100% :2
5% 288,907

9,750

12,550

2,800

808.94

251

12,299

2,549

736.42

2%

25% 90,490

9,030

10,575

1,545

139.81

212

10,364

1,334

120.67

2%

2551/.. 5% 67,958

11,237 18,550

7,313

497.01

1,855 16,695

5,458

370.95

10%

93,873

134,140

15,537 24,705

9,168

860.64

2,471 22,235

6,698

628.73

10%

15,537 20,800

5,263

706.00

2,080 18,720

3,183

426.99

10%

511

10% 6,647

15,537 20,800

5,263

2.69

2,080 18,720

3,183

1.63

10%

11,237 16,345

5,108

33.96

1,635 14,711

3,474

23.09

10%

15%

11,237 15,465

4,228

0.22

1,547 13,919

2,682

0.14

10%

53

2551/.. 25% 73,611

8,050

14,080

6,030

443.87

1,408

12,672

4,622

340.23

10%

2552/.. 25% 18,283

8,050

14,172

6,122

111.93

2,126

12,046

3,996

73.07

15%

25% 2,277
()

8,050

14,172

6,122

13.94

2,126

12,046

3,996

9.10

15%

5,450.65

4,409.72

 : (1) 2552 (2) 2552

102


) 5 d ( )
2548/49

 5.9 (48/49)
 3.9 (51/52)
6 - 14.9 (48/49)
40,001-100,000
4 8.9 (51/52)
15- 28.9 (48/49)
100,001-200,000
9 16.9 (51/52)
29 48.9 (48/49)
200,001-340,000
17 28.9 (51/52)
49 (48/49)
340,000
29 (51/52)

 40,000

1/
()
193,966
211,992
83,891
30,612
5,203
525,664**

( )
36.90
40.33
15.96
5.82
0.99
100.00

2551/52
25462/ 25462/

()
5,163.48
14,036.56
11,809.74
7,966.56
1,819.60
40,795.95

( )
12.66
34.41
28.95
19.53
4.46
100.00

( )
27.95

( )
70.22

29.54
18.90
14.24
9.37
100.00

( )

( )

( )

( )

15.83

2.73

57.2

18

30.02

13.19

23.7

22

25.20

23.44

10.9

21

17.28

29.11

4.7

16

11.67
100.00

31.52
100.00

3.5
100.00

24
100.00

20.22
6.04
2.59
0.93
100.00

: * 5% 2548/49 7,000 /  11,800 2551/52

** . ... 624,428 :: ... . 
:. ...
 : 1/  (...) 2552
2/ 2546

103


 6 /) 2548/4962
(.)
2548/49 : 
:
1.1 9  
 
5 3 1
:
1.2 : 15%
1)
42

10,000

40

9,900

38

9,800

36

9,700


50  10,000
:
2)
40

7,900

38

7,820

36

7,740

34

7,660


40 
7,900
62

2548/49

104


3)
100%

( 100%)

7,100

5%

( 5%)

7,000

10%

( 10%)

6,900

15%

( 15%)

6,800

25%

( 25%)

6,700

7,100

7,000

4)

7,700

7,500

1.3 1 2548
28 2549 1 31 2549 
 : 2548 -
2549 3  
4 
1.4
1.4.1
1) x 
2) 
2548/49 
...
3)  ...
... : ...

2548/49
... ...  ...
: ...
105


1.4.2 ( )
1) :
:  
2548/49
 ...
2) ... 
 ... ...
 
- 2548/49

- ...
 .
- 
- 

-
1.4.3
1)
 :

: :
2)  :
 : 

 63 :

63

2548

106


1.  50
 : 20 

2. : 50
  
 :
3.  .

4.  

5.   . 
 :

  90 20 /
6. h 
() .
7.   
.
 1 ::
.

1.5 
1) ...
 ...  15

...
2)
...
::
107


3) : ::
: :
: 
 
2548/49

(.)
: :: :
 
:
1.6 
1.

350,000

2.

20,000,000

3.

100,000,000

 
...
1.7
:
2548/49  :
.  .
 : 


... : 
x

108







 165/1