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Tourism Research


Approaches to Tourism
Demand and Forecasting
Types of Research
 Basic versus applied
 Cross-sectional versus longitudinal

 Qualitative versus quantitative

 Primary versus secondary
Basic Research
 Basic research is a pure research
 It is useful for specific issues

 The Knowledge is expressed in general
laws, theories or models.
 Associated with universities

 Induction and deduction
Induction / Deduction
 In induction repeated observations and analysis of
data leads to the formulation of theories or models
that links these observation in a meaningful way.
 Deduction begins with an existing theory or model
and applies this to a particular situations to see
whether it is valid in that case or not.
 Induction moves from the specific to general
 Deduction moves the general to specific
Testing induction and deduction
Applied Research
 Applied research is directed towards specific practical problems
and outcomes
 It is associated with product development, identification of
target markets, community reaction towards
 It is associated with Government, Non-governmental
organizations and private organizations.
 If it is industry based the results must be kept confidential
 Eg: Plog’s psychographic segmentation
Cross Sectional Research
 CrossSectional Research is a snapshot
approach that describes a situation
essentially at one point of time.
Longitudinal Research
 It is also called as trend research
 Several time periods with several snapshots.
 Survey of the Same respondents from one time period to
the next.
 Ability to monitor the changing behaviour of a given
 Eg. A same question may be asked before and after
( Consumers who have already booked a trip to a
particular location.
Qualitative Research
 Qualitative research can be initially defined as
a mode of research that does not place its
emphasis on statistics or statistical analysis.
 Small number of observations or respondents,
but they are in depth
 This method is suitable for the situations,
where little is known about the subject matter
 Eg: Select a group of 10 residents from any
destination and conduct an in depth interview
with each to see what they think about the
tourism sector in their community.
Quantitative Research
 Quantitative Research relies on the collection
of statistics that are then analyzed through a
variety of statistical techniques.
 The quantitative research techniques typically
are data condensers
 It involves a very rigorous process of
hypothesis formulation, observations, data
collections, data analysis, rejections or
acceptance of hypothesis.
Primary Research
 Primary research the data are collected
directly by the researcher and did not
exists prior to their collection
 Survey
Characteristic of three ideal
survey types
Secondary Research
 Academic Journals
 Academic books
 Statistical Compilations
 Trade publications
 News papers and Magazines
 Internet
 Topographical maps and remotely sensed images
Comparative Studies
 Analysis of a problem in two or more places
 Cross national context
 To benefit form other country or place
 Solve the specific problems
 Eg. Under what circumstances does the
development of a tourist industry result in
deterioration of environmental quality in a host
Demand forecasting – A Broad Overview

 “Market demand for a product class is
the total volume which would be bought
by a defined customer group in a defined
location in a defined time period under
defined environmental conditions and
marketing efforts and at a given price”
Organizations Sales Forecast
 Theorganization’s sales forecast is the
expected level of company sales based
on a chosen marketing plans and
assumed environmental conditions.
Uses of Forecasts
 Short term ( 3-6-12 months) planning for
production, manpower, raw materials,
inventory etc., and for raising necessary
working capital
 Medium term(1 -3 Years) Planning for addition
of balancing equipment and marginal
 Long term( 5 – 10 Years) Planning for
substantial expansion, setting up of new units,
Diversification, location of raw materials from
the long term point of view
Forecasting Stages
 Forecast of Environment

 Industry forecast

 Organization / Company Sales Forecast
Grouping of demand forecasting
 All demand forecasts can be grouped
broadly under three heads, Those based
on :
(i) What people say – Future
(ii) What people do – present
(iii) What people have done – past
Forecasting Techniques
 Forecasting methods falling under the
three broad groups of techniques are
as follows.
(i) Based on what people say
(ii) Based on what people Do
(iii) Based on what people have done
Based on what people say
 Survey of Buyer’s intentions
 Sales Force Composite Method

 Jury of the executive opinion method

 Expert opinion method

 End use method

 Delphi Technique
Based on what people do
 Putting the product to a market test to
elicit buyers’ responses and using them
to make projections of demand
Based on what people have done

 Trend methods
 Time series Analysis
 Exponential smoothing models
 Regression models ( simple, Multiple Log form and
Non-long form
 Econometric models
 Input-out put models
 Historical Analogy method
 Geographical Analogy method
Based on what people say
Survey of Buyer’s intentions

a forecasting technique in which known
purchasers of a product are asked to
predict their requirements for a given
future period
Sales Force Composite Method
 method of forecasting future demand for
a product by adding together what each
member of the sales force expects to be
able to sell in his or her territory
Jury of the executive opinion
a forecasting method based on the
opinions of senior management
Expert opinion method
a sales forecasting method in which
outside specialists or industry experts -
economists, academics, management
consultants, advertising executives, etc -
are asked to assist in the preparation of
the sales forecast
Delphi Technique

 The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive
forecasting method which relies on a panel of
independent experts. The carefully selected
experts answer questionnaires in two or more
rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides
an anonymous summary of the experts’
forecasts from the previous round as well as
the reasons they provided for their judgments
Based on what people do
Product testing method
 exposing consumers to a new product, in
final or prototype form, so that they might
compare it to their usual brand and rate
it, the results of product testing will
indicate to the company whether further
evaluation of the product in test markets
is desirable, see concept development
and testing and new product
Based on What people have done
Trend Method

a forecasting method in which likely
future sales are estimated by statistical
analysis of previous sales patterns
Time Series Analysis
 timemanagement technique in which the
amount of time allocated to each job
activity is recorded and later reviewed in
order to plan for more productive use of
the available time, see time
Exponential Smoothing Models
a quantitative technique for sales
forecasting using historical data
weighted to favour the most recent
Regression Models
 In statistics, a mathematical method of
modeling the relationships among three
or more variables. It is used to predict
the value of one variable given the
values of the others. For example, a
model might estimate sales based on
age and gender. A regression analysis
yields an equation that expresses the
Econometric Models
 An econometric model is one of the tools
economists use to forecast future
developments in the economy. In the simplest
terms, econometricians measure past
relationships among such variables as
consumer spending, household income, tax
rates, interest rates,employment, and the like,
and then try to forecast how changes in some
variables will affect the future course of others.
Input-output Models
 The Input-output model of economics
uses a matrix representation of a nation's
(or a region's) economy to predict the
effect of changes in one industry on
others and by consumers, government,
and foreign suppliers on the economy.
Historical Analogy Method
 anapproach to sales forecasting in
which the past sales results of a similar
product are used to predict the likely
sales of a similar new product.
Geographical Analogy method

a distinctive characteristic of the
industrial market, the industrial market
tends to be more geographically
concentrated than the consumer market