×rw irrf vrvirw 6· jt× rrn zo·o z¸

&ìk¡ Þ»vìs

u»r ¡oììows ìs iathoi liko tho lanous couitioon
scono in Oison Wollos`s Tnc Ludy jrcn Snungnui (¡¸q;¡.

In that noii allogoiy ol piolotaiian viituo in tho onliaco
ol iuling-class docadonco, Wollos plays a loltwing sailoi
nanod Michaol O`Haia who iolls in tho hay with jcnnc jutu|c Rita
Haywoith, and thon gots lianod loi nuidoi. Hoi husland, Aithui
Bannistoi, tho nost cololiatod ciininal lawyoi in Anoiica, playod ly
Evoiott Sloano, convincos O`Haia to appoint hin as his dolonco, all
tho lottoi to onsuio his iival`s conviction and oxocution. At tho tuin-
ing point in tho tiial, dociiod ly tho piosocution as 'yot anothoi ol tho
gioat Bannistoi`s lanous tiicks`, Bannistoi tho attoinoy calls Bannistoi
tho aggiiovod husland to tho witnoss stand and intoiiogatos hinsoll
in iapid schizoid volloys, to tho niith ol tho juiy. In tho spiiit ol Ludy
jrcn Snungnui, this ossay is oiganizod as a dolato with nysoll, a nontal
touinanont lotwoon analytic dospaii and utopian possilility that is poi-
sonally, and piolally oljoctivoly, iiiosolvallo.
In tho hist soction, 'Possinisn ol tho Intolloct`, I adduco aigunonts loi
lolioving that wo havo alioady lost tho hist, opochal stago ol tho lat-
tlo against glolal waining. Tho Kyoto Piotocol, in tho snug lut sadly
accuiato woids ol ono ol its chiol oppononts, has dono 'nothing noas-
uiallo` alout clinato chango. Glolal cailon dioxido onissions ioso ly
tho sano anount thoy woio supposod to lall locauso ol it.
It is highly
unlikoly that gioonhouso gas accunulation can lo stalilizod this sido
ol tho lanous 'iod lino` ol q¡o ppn ly zozo. Il this is tho caso, tho
nost hoioic olloits ol oui childion`s gonoiation will lo unallo to loio-
stall a iadical ioshaping ol ocologios, watoi iosouicos and agiicultuial
systons. In a wainoi woild, noioovoi, socio-ocononic inoquality will
havo a notooiological nandato, and thoio will lo littlo incontivo loi
tho iich noithoin honisphoio countiios, whoso cailon onissions havo
¡o ×iv 6·
dostioyod tho clinato oquililiiun ol tho Holocono, to shaio iosouicos
loi adaptation with thoso pooi sultiopical countiios nost vulnoiallo to
dioughts and ßoods.
Tho socond pait ol tho ossay, 'Optinisn ol tho Inagination`, is ny soll-
ioluttal. I appoal to tho paiadox that tho singlo nost inpoitant causo ol
glolal wainingtho uilanization ol hunanityis also potontially tho
piincipal solution to tho piollon ol hunan suivival in tho latoi twonty-
hist contuiy. Lolt to tho disnal politics ol tho piosont, ol couiso, citios
ol povoity will alnost coitainly locono tho colhns ol hopo, lut all tho
noio ioason that wo nust stait thinking liko Noah. Sinco nost ol his-
toiy`s giant tioos havo alioady loon cut down, a now Aik will havo to lo
constiuctod out ol tho natoiials that a dospoiato hunanity hnds at hand
in insuigont connunitios, piiato tochnologios, lootloggod nodia, iolol
scionco and loigotton utopias.
ì. v¡ssì&ìs& o¡ ru¡ ìnr¡ìì¡cr
Oui old woild, tho ono that wo havo inhalitod loi tho last ¡z,ooo yoais,
has ondod, ovon il no nowspapoi has yot piintod its sciontihc olituaiy.
Tho voidict is that ol tho Stiatigiaphy Connission ol tho Goological
Socioty ol London. Foundod in ¡8o;, tho Socioty is tho woild`s oldost
association ol oaith sciontists, and its Stiatigiaphy Connission acts as
a collogo ol caidinals in tho adjudication ol tho goological tino-scalo.
Stiatigiaphois slico up Eaith`s histoiy as piosoivod in sodinontaiy stiata
into a hioiaichy ol oons, oias, poiiods and opochs, naikod ly tho 'goldon
spikos` ol nass oxtinctions, spociation ovonts oi aliupt changos in atnos-
phoiic chonistiy. In goology, as in liology and histoiy, poiiodization is
a conplox, contiovoisial ait, tho nost littoi loud in ninotoonth-contuiy
Biitish scioncostill known as tho 'Gioat Dovonian Contiovoisy`was
lought ovoi conpoting intoipiotations ol honoly Wolsh gioywackos and
English Old Rod Sandstono. As a iosult, Eaith scionco sots oxtiaoidinai-
ily iigoious standaids loi tho loatihcation ol any now goological division.
Although tho idoa ol an 'Anthiopocono` opochdohnod ly tho onoigonco
ol uilan-industiial socioty as a goological loicohas long ciiculatod in
tho litoiatuio, stiatigiaphois havo novoi acknowlodgod its waiiant.
This papoi was givon as a talk at tho 0cì» Contoi loi Social Thooiy and Conpaiativo
Histoiy in Januaiy zoo¸.
Tho Cato Instituto`s oxociallo Patiick Michaols in tho Wusningtcn Tincs, ¡z
Foliuaiy zoo¡.
otvis: ¡¡
At loast loi tho London Socioty, that position has now loon iovisod. To
tho quostion, 'Aio wo now living in tho Anthiopocono?`, tho twonty-ono
nonlois ol tho Connission havo unaninously answoiod 'yos`. In a
zoo8 iopoit thoy naishallod iolust ovidonco to suppoit tho hypoth-
osis that tho Holocono opochtho intoiglacial span ol unusually
stallo clinato that allowod tho iapid ovolution ol agiicultuio and uilan
civilizationhas ondod, and that tho Eaith has now ontoiod 'a stiati-
giaphic intoival without closo paiallol` in tho last sovoial nillion yoais.

In addition to tho luild-up ol gioonhouso gasos, tho stiatigiaphois citod
hunan landscapo tiansloination, which 'now oxcoods jannual| natuial
sodinont pioduction ly an oidoi ol nagnitudo`, tho oninous acidihca-
tion ol tho ocoans, and tho iolontloss dostiuction ol liota.
This now ago, thoy oxplainod, is dohnod loth ly tho hoating tiondwhoso
closost analoguo nay lo tho catastiopho known as tho Paloocono Eocono
Thoinal Maxinun, ¡o nillion yoais agoand ly tho iadical instalility
oxpoctod ol lutuio onviionnonts. In sonlio pioso, thoy wainod:
Tho conlination ol oxtinctions, glolal spocios nigiations and tho wido-
spioad ioplaconont ol natuial vogotation with agiicultuial nonocultuios is
pioducing a distinctivo contonpoiaiy liostiatigiaphic signal. Thoso ollocts
aio poinanont, as lutuio ovolution will tako placo lion suiviving (and lio-
quontly anthiopogonically iolocatod¡ stocks.
Evolution itsoll, in othoi woids, has loon loicod into a now tiajoctoiy.
Spcntunccus dccurbcnizuticn?
Tho Connission`s iocognition ol tho Anthiopocono coincidod with giow-
ing sciontihc contiovoisy ovoi tho Fouith Assossnont Ropoit issuod ly
tho Intoigovoinnontal Panol on Clinato Chango. Tho ìvcc, ol couiso,
is nandatod to assoss tho possillo iango ol clinato chango and ostal-
lish appiopiiato taigots loi tho nitigation ol onissions. Tho nost ciitical
lasolinos includo ostinatos ol 'clinato sonsitivity` to incioasing accunula-
tions ol gioonhouso gas, as woll as socio-ocononic talloaux that conhguio
dilloiont lutuios ol onoigy uso and thus ol onissions. But an inpiossivo
nunloi ol sonioi iosoaichois, including koy paiticipants in tho ìvcc`s
own woiking gioups, havo iocontly oxpiossod unoaso oi disagioonont
Jan Zalasiowicz ot al., 'Aio Wo Now Living in tho Anthiopocono?`, Tcduy, vol.
¡8, no. z, Foliuaiy zoo8.
Zalasiowicz, 'Aio Wo Now Living in tho Anthiopocono?`
¡z ×iv 6·
with tho nothodology ol tho loui-voluno Fouith Assossnont, which thoy
chaigo is unwaiiantodly optinistic in its goophysics and social scionco.
Tho nost cololiatod dissontoi is Janos Hanson lion n»s»`s Goddaid
Instituto. Tho Paul Rovoio ol glolal waining who hist wainod Congioss
ol tho gioonhouso poiil in a lanous ¡¸88 hoaiing, ho iotuinod to
Washington with tho tioulling nossago that tho ìvcc, thiough its lailuio
to paianotoiizo ciucial Eaith-syston loodlacks, has givon lai too nuch
looway to luithoi cailon onissions. Instoad ol tho ìvcc`s pioposod iod
lino ol q¡o ppn cailon dioxido, his iosoaich toan lound conpolling
palooclinatic ovidonco that tho thioshold ol saloty was only ¡¡o ppn oi
ovon loss. Tho 'stunning coiollaiy` ol this iocaliliation ol clinato sonsi-
tivity, ho tostihod, is that 'tho olt-statod goal ol kooping glolal waining
lolow two dogioos Colsius is a iocipo loi glolal disastoi, not salvation`.

Indood, sinco tho cuiiont lovol is alout ¡8¡ ppn, wo nay alioady lo past
tho notoiious 'tipping point`. Hanson has nolilizod a Quixotic ainy ol
sciontists and onviionnontal activists to savo tho woild via an onoigoncy
cailon tax, which would iovoiso gioonhouso concontiations to pio-zooo
lovols ly zo¡¡.
I do not havo tho sciontihc qualilactions to oxpioss an opinion on tho
Hanson contiovoisy, oi tho piopoi sotting on tho planotaiy thoinostat.
Anyono, howovoi, who is ongagod with tho social scioncos oi sinply pays
iogulai attontion to nacio-tionds should lool loss shy alout joining tho
dolato ovoi tho othoi contiovoisial coinoistono ol tho Fouith Assossnont:
its socio-ocononic piojoctions and what wo night toin thoii 'political
unconscious`. Tho cuiiont sconaiios woio adoptod ly tho ìvcc in zooo
to nodol lutuio glolal onissions lasod on dilloiont 'stoiylinos` alout
population giowth as woll as tochnological and ocononic dovolopnont.
Tho Panol`s najoi sconaiiostho A¡ lanily, tho Bz, and so onaio woll
known to policynakois and gioonhouso activists, lut low outsido tho
iosoaich connunity havo actually ioad tho hno piint, paiticulaily tho
ìvcc`s hoioic conhdonco that gioatoi onoigy olhcioncy will lo an 'auto-
natic` ly-pioduct ol lutuio ocononic giowth. Indood all tho sconaiios,
ovon tho 'lusinoss as usual` vaiiants, assuno that alnost oo poi cont ol
Indood, thioo loading contiilutois to Woiking Gioup ¡ chaigod that tho Ropoit
doliloiatoly undoistatod tho iisks ol soa-lovol iiso and ignoiod now iosoaich on
instalility in tho Gioonland and Wost Antaictic ico shoots. Soo tho dolato in 'Lottois`,
Scicncc ¡¡¸, z¡ Januaiy zoo8, pp. qo¸¡o.
Janos Hanson, 'Glolal Waining Twonty Yoais Latoi: Tipping Point Noai`,
Tostinony loloio Congioss, z¡ Juno zoo8.
otvis: ¡¡
lutuio cailon ioduction will occui indopondontly ol oxplicit gioonhouso
nitigation noasuios.
Tho ìvcc, in olloct, has lot tho ianch, oi iathoi tho planot, on a naikot-
diivon ovolution towaid a post-cailon woild oconony: a tiansition that
ioquiios not only intoinational onissions caps and cailon tiading, lut
also voluntaiy coipoiato connitnonts to tochnologios that haidly oxist
ovon in piototypo, such as cailon captuio, cloan coal, hydiogon and
advancod tiansit systons, and collulosic lioluols. As ciitics havo long
pointod out, in nany ol its 'sconaiios` tho doploynont ol non-cailon-
onitting onoigy-supply systons 'oxcoods tho sizo ol tho glolal onoigy
syston in ¡¸¸o.`
Kyoto-typo accoids and cailon naikots aio dosignodalnost as ana-
loguos to Koynosian 'punp-piining`to liidgo tho shoitlall lotwoon
spontanoous docailonization and tho onissions taigots ioquiiod ly oach
sconaiio. Although tho ìvcc novoi spolls it out, its nitigation taigots
nocossaiily piosuno that windlall piohts lion highoi lossil-luol piicos
ovoi tho noxt gonoiation will lo olhciontly iocyclod into ionowallo onoigy
tochnology and not wastod on nilo-high skysciapois, assot lulllos and
noga-payouts to shaioholdois. Ovoiall, tho Intoinational Enoigy Agoncy
ostinatos that it will cost alout Sq¡ tiillion to halvo gioonhouso gas out-
put ly zo¡o.
But without tho laigo quotiont ol 'autonatic` piogioss in
onoigy olhcioncy, tho liidgo will novoi lo luilt, and ìvcc goals will lo
unachiovallo, in tho woist casotho stiaightloiwaid oxtiapolation ol cui-
iont onoigy usocailon onissions could oasily tiiplo ly nid-contuiy.
Ciitics havo citod tho disnal cailon iocoid ol tho lastlostdocado to
dononstiato that tho ìvcc lasolino assunptions alout naikots and toch-
nology aio littlo noio than loaps ol laith. Dospito tho ¡0`s nuch-piaisod
adoption ol a cap-and-tiado syston, Euiopoan cailon onissions contin-
uod to iiso, dianatically in sono soctois. Likowiso thoio has loon scant
ovidonco in iocont yoais ol tho autonatic piogioss in onoigy olhcioncy
Sciontihc Connittoo on Piollons ol tho Enviionnont (scov¡¡, Tnc C|cbu| Curbcn
Cyc|c, Washington, Þc zooq, pp. ;;8z, and ìvcc, C|inutc Cnungc .cc,. Mitiguticn
cj C|inutc Cnungc. Ccntributicn cj Wcrking Crcup !!! tc tnc Fcurtn Asscssncnt Rcpcrt,
Canliidgo zoo;, pp. ¡;z and z¡8zq.
scov¡, Tnc C|cbu| Curbcn Cyc|c, p. 8z.
Intoinational Enoigy Agoncy, Encrgy Tccnnc|cgy Pcrspcctivcs. !n suppcrt cj tnc C6
P|un cj ActicnE×ccutivc Sunnury, Paiis zoo8, p. ¡.
¡q ×iv 6·
that is tho sinc quu ncn ol ìvcc sconaiios. Much ol what tho stoiylinos
dopict as tho olhcioncy ol now tochnology has in lact loon tho iosult ol
tho closing down ol hoavy industiios in tho Unitod Statos, Euiopo and
tho ox-Soviot lloc. Tho iolocation ol onoigy-intonsivo pioduction to East
Asia luinishos tho cailon lalanco-shoots ol sono o¡cÞ countiios lut
doindustiialization should not lo conlusod with spontanoous docailon-
ization. Most iosoaichois loliovo that onoigy intonsity has actually iison
sinco zooo, that is, glolal cailon dioxido onissions havo kopt paco with,
oi ovon giown naiginally lastoi than, onoigy uso.
Rcturn cj King Ccu|
Moioovoi tho ìvcc cailon ludgot has alioady loon liokon. Accoiding to
tho Glolal Cailon Piojoct, which koops tho accounts, onissions havo loon
iising lastoi than piojoctod ovon in tho ìvcc`s woist-caso sconaiio. Fion
zooo to zoo;, cailon dioxido ioso ly ¡.¡ poi cont annually, conpaiod
with tho z.; poi cont in ìvcc piojoctions, oi tho o.¸ poi cont iocoidod
duiing tho ¡¸¸os.
Wo aio alioady outsido tho ìvcc onvolopo, in othoi
woids, and coal nay lo laigoly to llano loi this unloiosoon accoloiation
ol gioonhouso onissions. Coal pioduction has undoigono a dianatic
ionaissanco ovoi tho last docado, as nightnaios ol tho ¡¸th contuiy iotuin
to haunt tho z¡st. In China ¡ nillion ninois toil undoi dangoious condi-
tions to oxtiact tho diity ninoial that iopoitodly allows Boijing to opon
a now coal-luollod powoi station oach wook. Coal consunption is also
looning in Euiopo, whoio ¡o now coal-luollod plants aio schodulod to
opon ovoi tho noxt low yoais,
and Noith Anoiica, whoio zoo plants aio
plannod. A giant plant undoi constiuction in Wost Viiginia will gonoiato
cailon oquivalont to tho oxhaust ol ono nillion cais.
In a connanding study ol Tnc Futurc cj Ccu|, &ìr onginoois concludod
that usago would incioaso undoi any loiosooallo sconaiio, ovon in tho laco
ol high cailon taxos. Invostnont in ccs tochnologycailon-captuio and
soquostiationis, noioovoi, 'conplotoly inadoquato`, ovon assuning it
is actually piactical, ccs would not locono a utility-scalo altoinativo until
Josop Canadoll ot al., 'Contiilutions to Accoloiating Atnosphoiic coz Giowth`,
Prccccdings cj tnc Nuticnu| Acudcny cj Scicnccs ¡oq, zo Novonloi zoo;,
pp. ¡8,8oo;o.
Glolal Cailon Piojoct, Curbcn Budgct .cc,, p. ¡o.
Elisaloth Rosonthal, 'Euiopo Tuins Back to Coal, Raising Clinato Foais`, Ncw
Ycrk Tincs, z¡ Apiil zoo8.
otvis: ¡¡
zo¡o oi latoi. In tho Unitod Statos, 'gioon onoigy` logislation has only
cioatod a 'poivoiso incontivo` loi utilitios to luild noio coal-hiod plants
in tho 'oxpoctation that onissions lion thoso plants would potontially lo
ºgiandlathoiod" ly tho giant ol lioo co
allowancos as pait ol lutuio cai-
lon onission iogulations.`
Moanwhilo a consoitiun ol coal pioducois,
coal-luining utilitios and coal-hauling iailioadscalling thonsolvos tho
Anoiican Coalition loi Cloan Coal Eloctiicityspont Sqo nillion ovoi
tho zoo8 oloction cyclo to onsuio that loth piosidontial candidatos sang
in unison alout tho viituos ol tho diitiost lut choapost luol.
Laigoly locauso ol tho populaiity ol coal, a lossil luol with a piovon zoo-
yoai supply, tho cailon contont poi unit ol onoigy nay actually iiso.

Boloio tho Anoiican oconony collapsod, tho 0s Enoigy Dopaitnont
was piojocting an incioaso ol national onoigy pioduction ly at loast zo
poi cont ovoi tho noxt gonoiation. Glolally tho total consunption ol los-
sil luols is piodictod to iiso ly ¡¡ poi cont, with intoinational oil oxpoits
doulling in voluno. Tho 0n Dovolopnont Piogianno, which has nado
its own study ol sustainallo onoigy goals, wains that it will ioquiio a ¡o
poi cont cut in gioonhouso gas onissions woildwido ly zo¡o, against
¡¸¸o lovols, to koop hunanity outsido tho iod zono ol iunaway wain-
Yot tho Intoinational Enoigy Agoncy piodicts that, in all likolihood,
such onissions will actually incioaso ovoi tho noxt hall-contuiy ly noaily
¡oo poi contonough gioonhouso gas to piopol us past sovoial ciiti-
cal tipping points. Tho ì¡» also piojocts that ionowallo onoigy, apait
lion hydiopowoi, will piovido only q poi cont ol oloctiicity gonoiation in
zo¡oup lion ¡ poi cont today.
A grccn rcccssicn?
Tho cuiiont woild iocossiona non-linoai ovont ol tho kind that ìvcc
sconaiists ignoio in thoii stoiylinosnay piovido a tonpoiaiy iospito,
paiticulaily il dopiossod oil piicos dolay tho oponing ol tho Pandoia`s
lox ol now noga-cailon iosoivoiis such as tai sands and oil shalos. But
tho slunp is unlikoly to slow tho dostiuction ol tho Anazon iainloiost
Stophon Ansolalohoio ot al., Tnc Futurc cj Ccu|, Canliidgo, &» zoo;, p. xiv.
Pow Contoi on Glolal Clinato Chango, quotod in Matthow Wald, 'Coal, a Tough
Halit to Kick`, Ncw Ycrk Tincs, z¡ Soptonloi zoo8.
!unun Dcvc|cpncnt Rcpcrt .cc,,.cc6. Fignting C|inutc Cnungc. !unun
Sc|idurity in u Dividcd Wcr|d, p. ;.
ì¡» iopoit quotod in Wu|| Strcct ]curnu|, ; Novonloi zoo8.
¡o ×iv 6·
locauso Biazilian lainois will iationally sook to dolond gioss inconos
ly oxpanding pioduction. And locauso oloctiicity donand is loss olastic
than autonolilo uso, tho shaio ol coal in cailon onissions will continuo
to incioaso. In tho Unitod Statos, in lact, coal pioduction is ono ol tho
low civilian industiios that is cuiiontly hiiing iathoi than laying oll woik-
ois. Moio inpoitantly, lalling lossil-luol piicos and tight ciodit naikots
aio oioding ontiopionouiial incontivos to dovolop capital-intonsivo wind
and solai altoinativos. On Wall Stioot, oco-onoigy stocks havo slunpod
lastoi than tho naikot as a wholo and invostnont capital has viitually
disappoaiod, loaving sono ol tho nost cololiatod cloan-onoigy stait-ups,
liko Tosla Motois and Cloai Skios Solai, in dangoi ol suddon ciil doath.
Tax ciodits, as advocatod ly Olana, aio unlikoly to iovoiso this gioon
dopiossion. As ono vontuio capital nanagoi told tho Ncw Ycrk Tincs,
'natuial gas at So nakos wind look liko a quostionallo idoa and solai
powoi unlathonally oxponsivo`.
Thus tho ocononic ciisis piovidos a conpolling piotoxt loi tho gioon
onco again to loavo tho liido at tho altai, as najoi conpanios dolault on
thoii pullic connitnonts to ionowallo onoigy. In tho Unitod Statos,
Toxas lillionaiio T. Boono Pickons has downscalod a schono to luild tho
woild`s laigost wind lain, whilo Royal Dutch Sholl has dioppod its plan
to invost in tho London Aiiay. Govoinnonts and iuling paitios havo loon
oqually avid to oscapo thoii cailon dolts. Tho Canadian Consoivativo
Paity, suppoitod ly Wostoin oil and coal intoiosts, doloatod tho Liloials`
'Gioon Shilt` agonda lasod on a national cailon tax in zoo;, just as
Washington sciappod its najoi cailon-captuio tochnology initiativo.
On tho supposodly gioonoi sido ol tho Atlantic, tho Boilusconi
ioginowhich is in tho piocoss ol convoiting Italy`s giid lion oil to
coaldonouncod tho ¡0 goal ol cutting onissions ly zo poi cont ly
zozo as an 'unalloidallo saciihco`, whilo tho Goinan govoinnont, in tho
woids ol tho Finunciu| Tincs, 'doalt a sovoio llow to tho pioposal to loico
conpanios to pay loi tho cailon dioxido thoy onit` ly lacking an alnost
total oxonption loi industiy. 'This ciisis changos piioiitios`, oxplainod a
shoopish Goinan loioign ninistoi.
Possinisn now alounds. Evon Yvo
do Booi, Diioctoi ol tho 0n Fianowoik Convontion on Clinato Chango,
Clilloid Kiauss, 'Altoinativo Enoigy Suddonly Facos Hoadwinds`, Ncw Ycrk Tincs,
z¡ Octoloi zoo8.
Poggy Hollingoi, '¡0 Noods Stallo Enoigy Policy, ¡Þ¡ Wains`, Finunciu| Tincs, ¡
Octoloi zoo8.
otvis: ¡;
concodos that, as long as tho ocononic ciisis poisists, 'nost sonsillo
govoinnonts will lo ioluctant to inposo now costs on jindustiy| in tho
loin ol cailon-onissions caps.` So ovon il invisillo hands and intoi-
vontionist loadois can iostait tho onginos ol ocononic giowth, thoy aio
unlikoly to lo allo to tuin down tho glolal thoinostat in tino to piovont
iunaway clinato chango. Noi should wo oxpoct that tho G; oi tho Gzo
will lo oagoi to cloan up tho noss thoy havo nado.
Ecc|cgicu| incquu|itics
Clinato diplonacy lasod on tho KyotoCoponhagon tonplato assunos
that, onco tho najoi actois havo accoptod tho consonsus scionco in tho
ìvcc iopoits, thoy will iocognizo an ovoiiiding connon intoiost in
gaining contiol ovoi tho gioonhouso olloct. But glolal waining is not
H. G. Wolls`s Wur cj tnc Wcr|ds, whoio invading Maitians donociatically
annihilato hunanity without class oi othnic distinction. Clinato chango,
instoad, will pioduco dianatically unoqual inpacts acioss iogions and
social classos, inßicting tho gioatost danago upon pooi countiios with
tho lowost iosouicos loi noaninglul adaptation. This googiaphical sopa-
iation ol onission souico lion onviionnontal consoquonco undoininos
pio-activo solidaiity. As tho 0n Dovolopnont Piogianno has onpha-
sizod, glolal waining is alovo all a thioat to tho pooi and tho unloin,
tho 'two constituoncios with littlo oi no political voico`.
glolal action on thoii lohall thus piosupposos oithoi thoii iovolution-
aiy onpowoinonta sconaiio not considoiod ly tho ìvccoi tho
tiansnutation ol tho soll-intoiost ol iich countiios and classos into an
onlightonod 'solidaiity` with littlo piocodont in histoiy.
Fion a iational-actoi poispoctivo, tho lattoi outcono only soons ioalistic
il it can lo shown that piivilogod gioups possoss no pioloiontial 'oxit`
Tho shanolul chaiado in Coponhagon, ciownod ly Olana`s dospoiato docoit
ol an agioonont, oxposod loss tho political gull lotwoon nations than tho noial
alyss lotwoon govoinnonts and hunanity. In tho noantino, tho lanous z°c ol
additional waining, which piosidont and pionioi havo vowod to piovont, is alioady
woiking its way thiough tho woild ocoan: a lutuio that will happon ovon il all cailon
onissions coasod tonoiiow. (On 'connittod` waining and tho undoilying illusion
ol Coponhagon, soo tho haiiowing, il awkwaidly titlod aiticlo ly Sciipps Institution
iosoaichois V. Rananathan and Y. Fong: 'On Avoiding Dangoious Anthiopogonic
Intoiloionco with tho Clinato Syston: Foinidallo Challongos Ahoad`, Prccccdings
cj tnc Nuticnu| Acudcny cj Scicncc ¡o¡, z¡ Soptonloi zoo8, pp. ¡q,zq¡¡o.¡
!unun Dcvc|cpncnt Rcpcrt .cc,,.cc6, p. o.
¡8 ×iv 6·
option, that intoinationalist pullic opinion diivos policy-naking in koy
countiios and that gioonhouso gas nitigation can lo achiovod without
najoi saciihcos in noithoin honisphoiic standaids ol livingnono ol
which soon likoly. Moioovoi, thoio is no shoitago ol oninont apologists,
liko Yalo ocononists Willian Noidhaus and Roloit Mondolsohn, ioady
to oxplain that it nakos noio sonso to doloi alatonont until pooioi
countiios locono iichoi and thus noio capallo ol loaiing tho costs
thonsolvos. In othoi woids, instoad ol galvanizing hoioic innovation and
intoinational coopoiation, giowing onviionnontal and socio-ocononic
tuilulonco nay sinply diivo olito pullics into noio lionziod attonpts to
wall thonsolvos oll lion tho iost ol hunanity. Glolal nitigation, in this
unoxploiod lut not inpiolallo sconaiio, would lo tacitly alandonodas,
to sono oxtont, it alioady has loonin lavoui ol accoloiatod invostnont
in soloctivo adaptation loi Eaith`s hist-class passongois. Tho goal would
lo tho cioation ol gioon and gatod oasos ol poinanont alßuonco on an
othoiwiso stiickon planot.
Ol couiso, thoio would still lo tioatios, cailon ciodits, lanino ioliol,
hunanitaiian aciolatics, and poihaps tho lull-scalo convoision ol sono
Euiopoan citios and snall countiios to altoinativo onoigy. But woildwido
adaptation to clinato chango, which piosupposos tiillions ol dollais ol
invostnont in tho uilan and iuial inliastiuctuios ol pooi and nodiun-
incono countiios, as woll as tho assistod nigiation ol tons ol nillions ol
pooplo lion Aliica and Asia, would nocossaiily connand a iovolution
ol alnost nythic nagnitudo in tho iodistiilution ol incono and powoi.
Moanwhilo wo aio spooding towaid a latolul iondozvous aiound zo¡o,
oi ovon oailioi, whon tho convoigont inpacts ol clinato chango, poak
oil, poak watoi, and an additional ¡.¡ lillion pooplo on tho planot will
pioduco nogativo synoigios piolally loyond oui inagination.
Tho lundanontal quostion is whothoi iich countiios will ovoi actu-
ally nolilizo tho political will and ocononic iosouicos to achiovo ìvcc
taigots, oi holp pooioi countiios adapt to tho inovitallo, alioady 'connit-
tod` quotiont ol glolal waining. Moio vividly: will tho oloctoiatos ol tho
woalthy nations shod thoii cuiiont ligotiy and wallod loidois to adnit
iolugoos lion piodictod opicontios ol diought and dosoitihcationtho
Maghiol, Moxico, Ethiopia and Pakistan? Will Anoiicans, tho nost
nisoily pooplo whon noasuiod ly poi capita loioign aid, lo willing
to tax thonsolvos to holp iolocato tho nillions likoly to lo ßoodod out
ol donsoly sottlod noga-dolta iogions liko Bangladosh? And will Noith
otvis: ¡¸
Anoiican agiilusinoss, tho likoly lonohciaiy ol glolal waining, volun-
taiily nako woild lood socuiity, not pioht-taking in a solloi`s naikot, its
highost piioiity?
Maikot-oiiontod optinists, ol couiso, will point to dononstiation-scalo
cailon-ollsot piogiannos liko tho Cloan Dovolopnont Mochanisn
which, thoy clain, will onsuio gioon invostnont in tho Thiid Woild.
But tho inpact ol cÞ& is thus lai nogligillo, it sulsidizos snall-scalo
ioloiostation and tho sciulling ol industiial onissions iathoi than lun-
danontal invostnont in donostic and uilan uso ol lossil luols. Moioovoi,
tho standpoint ol tho dovoloping woild is that tho Noith should acknowl-
odgo tho onviionnontal disastoi it has cioatod and tako iosponsilility
loi cloaning it up. Pooi countiios iightly iail against tho notion that tho
gioatost luidon ol adjustnont to tho Anthiopocono opoch should lall
on thoso who havo contiilutod loast to cailon onissions and diawn tho
slightost lonohts lion two contuiios ol industiial iovolution. A iocont
assossnont ol tho onviionnontal costs ol ocononic glolalization sinco
¡¸o¡in doloiostation, clinato chango, ovoihshing, ozono doplotion,
nangiovo convoision and agiicultuial oxpansionlound that tho iichost
countiios had gonoiatod qz poi cont ol onviionnontal dogiadation acioss
tho woild, whilo shouldoiing only ¡ poi cont ol tho iosulting costs.

Tho iadicals ol tho South will iightly point to anothoi dolt as woll. Foi
thiity yoais, citios in tho dovoloping woild havo giown at lioaknock spood
without countoipait pullic invostnonts in inliastiuctuio, housing oi
pullic hoalth. In pait this has loon tho iosult ol loioign dolts contiactod
ly dictatois, with paynonts onloicod ly tho ì&¡, and pullic sponding
downsizod oi iodistiilutod ly tho Woild Bank`s 'stiuctuial adjustnont`
agioononts. This planotaiy dohcit ol oppoitunity and social justico is
sunnaiizod ly tho lact that noio than ono lillion pooplo, accoiding to
0n Halitat, cuiiontly livo in sluns and that thoii nunloi is oxpoctod to
doullo ly zo¡o. An oqual nunloi, oi noio, loiago in tho so-callod inloi-
nal soctoia hist-woild ouphonisn loi nass unonploynont. Shooi
donogiaphic nonontun, noanwhilo, will incioaso tho woild`s uilan
population ly ¡ lillion pooplo ovoi tho noxt loity yoais, ¸o poi cont ol
whon will lo in pooi citios. No ononot tho 0n, tho Woild Bank, tho
Gzo: no onohas a cluo how a planot ol sluns with giowing lood and

U. Siinivasan ot al, 'Tho Dolt ol Nations and tho Distiilution ol Ecological
Inpacts lion Hunan Activitios`, Prccccdings cj tnc Nuticnu| Acudcny cj Scicncc ¡o¡,
¡ Foliuaiy zoo8, pp. ¡,;o8;¡.
qo ×iv 6·
onoigy ciisos will acconnodato thoii liological suivival, nuch loss thoii
aspiiations to lasic happinoss and dignity.
Tho nost sophisticatod iosoaich to dato into tho likoly inpacts ol glolal
waining on tiopical and soni-tiopical agiicultuio is sunnaiizod in
Willian Clino`s countiy-ly-countiy study, which couplos clinato piojoc-
tions to ciop piocoss and noo-Ricaidian lain-output nodols, allowing
loi vaiious lovols ol cailon-dioxido loitilization, to look at possillo
lutuios loi hunan nutiition. Tho viow is giin. Evon in Clino`s nost
optinistic sinulations, tho agiicultuial systons ol Pakistan (ninus zo
poi cont ol cuiiont lain output¡ and Noithwostoin India (ninus ¡o
poi cont¡ aio likoly dovastatod, along with nuch ol tho Middlo East, tho
Maghiol, tho Sahol lolt, paits ol Southoin Aliica, tho Caiilloan and
Moxico. Twonty-nino dovoloping countiios, accoiding to Clino, stand to
loso zo poi cont oi noio ol thoii cuiiont lain output to glolal wain-
ing, whilo agiicultuio in tho alioady iich Noith is likoly to iocoivo, on
avoiago, an 8 poi cont loost.
This potontial loss ol agiicultuial capacity in tho dovoloping woild is
ovon noio oninous in tho contoxt ol tho 0n waining that a doulling
ol lood pioduction will lo nocossaiy to sustain tho oaith`s nid-contuiy
population. Tho zoo8 lood alloidalility ciisis, aggiavatod ly tho lioluol
loon, is only a nodost poitont ol tho chaos that could soon giow lion
tho convoigonco ol iosouico doplotion, intiactallo inoquality and clinato
chango. In laco ol thoso dangois, hunan solidaiity itsoll nay liactuio
liko a Wost Antaictic ico sholl, and shattoi into a thousand shaids.
z. ovrì&ìs& o¡ ru¡ ì&»cìn»rìon
Scholaily iosoaich has cono lato in tho day to conliont tho synoigis-
tic possililitios ol poak population giowth, agiicultuial collapso, aliupt
clinato chango, poak oil and, in sono iogions, poak watoi, and tho accu-
nulatod ponaltios ol uilan nogloct. Il invostigations ly tho Goinan
govoinnont, Pontagon and cì» into tho national-socuiity inplications
ol a nultiply dotoininod woild ciisis in tho coning docados havo had
a Hollywoodish iing, it is haidly suipiising. As a iocont 0n Hunan
Dovolopnont Ropoit olsoivod: 'Thoio aio no olvious histoiical analogios
Willian Clino, C|cbu| Wurning und Agricu|turc. !npuct Estinutcs by Ccuntry,
Washington, Þc zoo;, pp. o;;¡, ;;8.
otvis: q¡
loi tho uigoncy ol tho clinato chango piollon.`

Whilo palooclinatol-
ogy can holp sciontists anticipato tho non-linoai physics ol a waining
Eaith, thoio is no histoiical piocodont oi vantago point loi undoistand-
ing what will happon in tho zo¡os whon a poak spocios population ol
¸ to ¡¡ lillion stiugglos to adapt to clinato chaos and doplotod lossil
onoigy. Alnost any sconaiio, lion tho collapso ol civilization to a now
goldon ago ol lusion powoi, can lo piojoctod on tho stiango scioon ol oui
giandchildion`s lutuio.
Wo can lo suio, howovoi, that citios will ionain tho giound zoio ol
convoigonco. Although loiost cloaianco and oxpoit nonocultuios havo
playod lundanontal iolos in tho tiansition to a now goological opoch,
tho piino novoi has loon tho alnost oxponontial incioaso in tho cai-
lon lootpiints ol uilan iogions in tho noithoin honisphoio. Hoating
and cooling tho uilan luilt onviionnont alono is iosponsillo loi an
ostinatod ¡¡ to q¡ poi cont ol cuiiont cailon onissions, whilo uilan
industiios and tianspoitation contiiluto anothoi ¡¡ to qo poi cont. In
a sonso, city lilo is iapidly dostioying tho ocological nichoHolocono
clinato stalilitywhich nado its ovolution into conploxity possillo.
Yot thoio is a stiiking paiadox hoio. What nakos uilan aioas so onvi-
ionnontally unsustainallo aio piocisoly thoso loatuios, ovon in tho
laigost nogacitios, that aio nost anti-uilan oi sul-uilan. Fiist anong
thoso is nassivo hoiizontal oxpansion, which conlinos tho dogiada-
tion ol vital natuial soivicosaquilois, watoishods, tiuck lains, loiosts,
coastal oco-systonswith tho high costs ol pioviding inliastiuctuio to
spiawl. Tho iosult is giotosquoly ovoisizod onviionnontal lootpiints,
with a conconitant giowth ol tialhc and aii pollution and, nost olton,
tho downstioan dunping ol wasto. Whoio uilan loins aio dictatod
ly spoculatois and dovolopois, lypassing donociatic contiols ovoi
planning and iosouicos, tho piodictallo social outconos aio oxtiono
spatial sogiogation ly incono oi othnicity, as woll as unsalo onviion-
nonts loi childion, tho oldoily and thoso with spocial noods, innoi-city
dovolopnont is concoivod as gontiihcation thiough oviction, dostioying
woiking-class uilan cultuio in tho piocoss. To thoso wo nay add tho
socio-political loatuios ol tho nogapolis undoi conditions ol capitalist
glolalization: tho giowth ol poiiphoial sluns and inloinal onploynont,
tho piivatization ol pullic spaco, low-intonsity wailaio lotwoon polico

!unun Dcvc|cpncnt Rcpcrt .cc,,.cc6, p. o.
qz ×iv 6·
and sulsistonco ciininals, and lunkoiing ol tho woalthy in stoiilizod his-
toiical contios oi wallod suluils.
By contiast, thoso qualitios that aio nost 'classically` uilan, ovon on
tho scalo ol snall citios and towns, conlino to gonoiato a noio viitu-
ous ciiclo. Whoio thoio aio woll-dohnod loundaiios lotwoon city and
countiysido, uilan giowth can piosoivo opon spaco and vital natuial sys-
tons, whilo cioating onviionnontal ocononios ol scalo in tianspoitation
and iosidontial constiuction. Accoss to city contios lion tho poiiphoiy
loconos alloidallo and tialhc can lo iogulatod noio olloctivoly. Wasto is
noio oasily iocyclod, not oxpoitod downstioan. In classic uilan visions,
pullic luxuiy ioplacos piivatizod consunption thiough tho socialization
ol dosiio and idontity within colloctivo uilan spaco. Laigo donains ol
pullic oi non-pioht housing iopioduco othnic and incono hotoiogono-
ity at liactal scalos thioughout tho city. Egalitaiian pullic soivicos and
cityscapos aio dosignod with childion, tho oldoily and thoso with spo-
cial noods in nind. Donociatic contiols olloi powoilul capacitios loi
piogiossivo taxation and planning, with high lovols ol political noliliza-
tion and civic paiticipation, tho piioiity ol civic nonoiy ovoi piopiiotaiy
icons and tho spatial intogiation ol woik, iocioation and hono lilo.
Tnc city us its cwn sc|uticn
Such shaip donaications lotwoon 'good` and 'lad` loatuios ol city lilo
aio iodolont ol lanous twontioth-contuiy attonpts to distil a canonical
uilanisn oi anti-uilanisn: Lowis Munloid and Jano Jacols, Fiank Lloyd
Wiight and Walt Disnoy, Coilusioi and tho cì»& nanilosto, tho 'Now
Uilanisn` ol Andiés Duany and Potoi Calthoipo, and so on. But no ono
noods uilan thooiists to havo oloquont opinions alout tho viituos and
vicos ol luilt onviionnonts and tho kinds ol social intoiactions thoy los-
toi oi discouiago. What olton goos unnoticod in such noial invontoiios,
howovoi, is tho consistont alhnity lotwoon social and onviionnontal jus-
tico, lotwoon tho connunal othos and a gioonoi uilanisn. Thoii nutual
attiaction is nagnotic, il not inovitallo. Tho consoivation ol uilan gioon
spacos and watoiscapos, loi oxanplo, soivos sinultanoously to piosoivo
vital natuial olononts ol tho uilan notalolisn whilo pioviding loisuio
and cultuial iosouicos loi tho populai classos. Roducing suluilan giid-
lock with lottoi planning and noio pullic tiansit tuins tialhc sowois lack
into noighlouihood stioots whilo ioducing gioonhouso onissions.
otvis: q¡
Thoio aio innunoiallo oxanplos and thoy all point towaid a singlo uni-
lying piinciplo: nanoly, that tho coinoistono ol tho low-cailon city, lai
noio than any paiticulai gioon dosign oi tochnology, is tho piioiity givon
to pullic alßuonco ovoi piivato woalth. As wo all know, sovoial additional
Eaiths would lo ioquiiod to allow all ol hunanity to livo in a suluilan
houso with two cais and a lawn, and this olvious constiaint is sono-
tinos ovokod to justily tho inpossilility ol ioconciling hnito iosouicos
with iising standaids ol living. Most contonpoiaiy citios, in iich coun-
tiios oi pooi, iopioss tho potontial onviionnontal olhcioncios inhoiont
in hunan-sottlonont donsity. Tho ocological gonius ol tho city ionains a
vast, laigoly hiddon powoi. But thoio is no planotaiy shoitago ol 'caiiying
capacity` il wo aio willing to nako donociatic pullic spaco, iathoi than
nodulai, piivato consunption, tho ongino ol sustainallo oquality. Pullic
alßuoncoiopiosontod ly gioat uilan paiks, lioo nusouns, liliaiios
and inhnito possililitios loi hunan intoiactioniopiosonts an altoi-
nativo iouto to a iich standaid ol lilo lasod on Eaith-liiondly sociality.
Although soldon noticod ly acadonic uilan thooiists, univoisity can-
pusos aio olton littlo quasi-socialist paiadisos aiound iich pullic spacos
loi loaining, iosoaich, poiloinanco and hunan iopioduction.
Tho utopian ocological ciitiquo ol tho nodoin city was pionooiod ly
socialists and anaichists, loginning with Guild Socialisn`s dioan
inßuoncod ly tho lio-iogionalist idoas ol Kiopotkin, and latoi Goddosol
gaidon citios loi io-aitisanizod English woikois, and onding with tho
lonlaidnont ol tho Kail Maix-Hol, Rod Vionna`s gioat oxpoiinont in
connunal living, duiing tho Austiian Civil Wai in ¡¸¡q. In lotwoon
aio tho invontion ol tho killutz ly Russian and Polish socialists, tho
nodoinist social housing piojocts ol tho Bauhaus, and tho oxtiaoidinaiy
dolato ovoi uilanisn conductod in tho Soviot Union duiing tho ¡¸zos.
This iadical uilan inagination was a victin ol tho tiagodios ol tho ¡¸¡os
and ¡¸qos. Stalinisn, on tho ono hand, vooiod towaid a nonunontalisn
in aichitoctuio and ait, inhunano in scalo and toxtuio, that was littlo
dilloiont lion tho Wagnoiian hypoilolos ol Alloit Spooi in tho Thiid
Roich. Postwai social donociacy, on tho othoi hand, alandonod altoi-
nativo uilanisn loi a Koynosian nass-housing policy that onphasizod
ocononios ol scalo in high-iiso piojocts on choap suluilan ostatos, and
thoioly upiootod tiaditional woiking-class uilan idontitios.
Yot tho lato ninotoonth and oaily twontioth contuiy convoisations
alout tho 'socialist city` piovido invaluallo staiting points loi thinking
qq ×iv 6·
alout tho cuiiont ciisis. Considoi, loi oxanplo, tho Constiuctivists. El
Lissitzky, Molnikov, Loonidov, Golosov, tho Vosnin liothois and othoi
liilliant socialist dosignoisconstiainod as thoy woio ly oaily Soviot
uilan nisoiy and a diastic shoitago ol pullic invostnontpioposod
to ioliovo congostod apaitnont lilo with splondidly dosignod woikois`
cluls, pooplo`s thoatios and spoits conploxos. Thoy gavo uigont piioiity
to tho onancipation ol piolotaiian wonon thiough tho oiganization ol
connunal kitchons, day nuisoiios, pullic laths and coopoiativos ol all
kinds. Although thoy onvisionod woikois` cluls and social contios, linkod
to vast Foidist lactoiios and ovontual high-iiso housing, as tho 'social
condonsois` ol a now piolotaiian civilization, thoy woio also olaloiating
a piactical stiatogy loi lovoiaging pooi uilan woikois` standaid ol living
in othoiwiso austoio ciicunstancos.
In tho contoxt ol glolal onviionnontal onoigoncy, this Constiuctivist
piojoct could lo tianslatod into tho pioposition that tho ogalitaiian aspocts
ol city lilo consistontly piovido tho lost sociological and physical suppoits
loi iosouico consoivation and cailon nitigation. Indood, thoio is littlo
hopo ol nitigating gioonhouso onissions oi adapting hunan halitats to
tho Anthiopocono unloss tho novonont to contiol glolal waining con-
voigos with tho stiugglo to iaiso living standaids and alolish woild povoity.
And in ioal lilo, loyond tho ìvcc`s sinplistic sconaiios, this noans pai-
ticipating in tho stiugglo loi donociatic contiol ovoi uilan spaco, capital
ßows, iosouico-shods and laigo-scalo noans ol pioduction.
Tho innoi ciisis in onviionnontal politics today is piocisoly tho lack ol
lold concopts that addioss tho challongos ol povoity, onoigy, liodivoisity
and clinato chango within an intogiatod vision ol hunan piogioss. At a
nicio-lovol, ol couiso, thoio havo loon onoinous stiidos in dovoloping
altoinativo tochnologios and passivo-onoigy housing, lut dononstiation
piojocts in woalthy connunitios and iich countiios will not savo tho woild.
Tho noio alßuont, to lo suio, can now chooso lion an alundanco ol
dosigns loi oco-living, lut what is tho ultinato goal: to allow woll-noaning
cololiitios to liag alout thoii zoio-cailon lilostylos oi to liing solai onoigy,
toilots, podiatiic clinics and nass tiansit to pooi uilan connunitios?
Bcycnd tnc grccn zcnc
Tackling tho challongo ol sustainallo uilan dosign loi tho wholo planot,
and not just loi a low piivilogod countiios oi social gioups, ioquiios a
otvis: q¡
vast stago loi tho inagination, such as tho aits and scioncos inhalitod in
tho May Days ol Vkhutonas and tho Bauhaus. It piosupposos a iadical
willingnoss to think loyond tho hoiizon ol noo-liloial capitalisn towaid
a glolal iovolution that iointogiatos tho laloui ol tho inloinal woiking
classos, as woll as tho iuial pooi, in tho sustainallo ioconstiuction ol
thoii luilt onviionnonts and livolihoods. Ol couiso, this is an uttoily
unioalistic sconaiio, lut ono oithoi onlaiks on a jouinoy ol hopo, loliov-
ing that collaloiations lotwoon aichitocts, onginoois, ocologists and
activists can play snall, lut ossontial iolos in naking an altoi-nondo
noio possillo, oi ono sulnits to a lutuio in which dosignois aio just
tho hiioling inaginoois ol olito, altoinativo oxistoncos. Planotaiy 'gioon
zonos` nay olloi phaiaonic oppoitunitios loi tho nonunontalization ol
individual visions, lut tho noial quostions ol aichitoctuio and planning
can only lo iosolvod in tho tonononts and spiawl ol tho 'iod zonos`.
Fion this poispoctivo, only a iotuin to oxplicitly utopian thinking can
claiily tho nininal conditions loi tho piosoivation ol hunan solidai-
ity in laco ol convoigont planotaiy ciisos. I think I undoistand what tho
Italian Maixist aichitocts Taluii and Dal Co noant whon thoy cautionod
against 'a iogiossion to tho utopian`, lut to iaiso oui inaginations to tho
challongo ol tho Anthiopocono, wo nust lo allo to onvision altoinativo
conhguiations ol agonts, piacticos and social iolations, and this ioquiios,
in tuin, that wo suspond tho politico-ocononic assunptions that chain
us to tho piosont. But utopianisn is not nocossaiily nillonaiianisn, noi
is it conhnod just to tho soaplox oi pulpit. Ono ol tho nost oncouiag-
ing dovolopnonts in that onoigont intolloctual spaco whoio iosoaichois
and activists discuss tho inpacts ol glolal waining on dovolopnont has
loon a now willingnoss to advocato tho Nocossaiy iathoi than tho noioly
Piactical. A giowing choius ol oxpoit voicos wain that oithoi wo hght
loi 'inpossillo` solutions to tho incioasingly ontanglod ciisos ol uilan
povoity and clinato chango, oi locono ouisolvos conplicit in a dc juctc
tiiago ol hunanity.
Thus I think wo can lo chooiod ly a iocont oditoiial in Nuturc. Explaining
that tho 'challongos ol ianpant uilanization donand intogiatod, nulti-
disciplinaiy appioachos and now thinking`, tho oditois uigo tho iich
countiios to hnanco a zoio-cailon iovolution in tho citios ol tho dovolop-
ing woild. 'It nay soon utopian`, thoy wiito,
to pionoto thoso innovations in onoiging and dovoloping-woild noga-
citios, nany ol whoso inhalitants can laioly alloid a iool ovoi thoii
qo ×iv 6·
hoads. But thoso countiios havo alioady shown a gilt loi tochnological
last-loiwaiding, loi oxanplo, ly loapliogging tho nood loi landlino inlia-
stiuctuio to onliaco nolilo phonos. And nany pooioi countiios havo a
iich tiadition ol adapting luildings to local piacticos, onviionnonts and
clinatosa hono-giown appioach to intogiatod dosign that has loon all
lut lost in tho Wost. Thoy now havo an oppoitunity to conlino thoso tiadi-
tional appioachos with nodoin tochnologios.
Sinilaily, tho 0n Hunan Dovolopnont Ropoit wains that tho 'lutuio
ol hunan solidaiity` doponds upon a nassivo aid piogianno to holp
dovoloping countiios adapt to clinato shocks. Tho Ropoit calls loi
ionoving tho 'olstaclos to tho iapid disluisonont ol tho low-cailon
tochnologios noodod to avoid dangoious clinato chango`'tho woild`s
pooi cannot lo lolt to sink oi swin with thoii own iosouicos whilo iich
countiios piotoct thoii citizons lohind clinato-dolonco loitihcations.`
'Put lluntly`, it continuos, 'tho woild`s pooi and lutuio gonoiations
cannot alloid tho conplaconcy and piovaiication that continuo to chai-
actoiizo intoinational nogotiations on clinato chango.` Tho iolusal to act
docisivoly on lohall ol all hunanity would lo 'a noial lailuio on a scalo
unpaiallolod in histoiy`.

Il this sounds liko a sontinontal call to tho lai-
iicados, an ocho lion tho classioons, stioots and studios ol loity yoais
ago, thon so lo it, locauso on tho lasis ol tho ovidonco loloio us, taking
a 'ioalist` viow ol tho hunan piospoct, liko sooing Modusa`s hoad, would
sinply tuin us into stono.
'Tuining llight into lloon`, Nuturc, ¡¡ Soptonloi zoo8, vol. q¡¡, p. ¡¡;.

!unun Dcvc|cpncnt Rcpcrt .cc,,.cc6, pp. o, z.

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