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1785/0120050138

**A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data
**

by Tatsuo Kanno, Akira Narita, Nobuyuki Morikawa, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, and Yoshimitsu Fukushima

Abstract Following the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Kobe. Earthquake, the Japanese government, in an effort to prevent future earthquake disasters, installed networks consisting of a large number of strong-motion observation stations. Further, national seismic hazard maps were made available to the public on an Internet website in March 2005 by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. However, these maps indicate only the local seismic intensity for Japan, as empirically converted from predicted peak velocity in consolidated soils. For various applications, other strong-motion indexes such as the response spectral acceleration are required. In this study, a database of whole Japanese strong ground motion records between 1963 and 2003 is established in order to identify a new standard attenuation relation for Japan, for response acceleration as well as peak value. It is usually very difﬁcult to determine a suitable model form due to the large variability of strong-motion data and correlation among the model variables, because the strong coupling of variables in an attenuation model, and the statistical power of the data is often not large enough to determine the necessity of these parameters. Therefore, in this study, our model has only three variables: earthquake magnitude, shortest distance to the seismic fault plane, and focal depth. To improve predictions given by the model, site correction terms are adopted and additional terms for correcting regional anomalous seismic intensity with respect to the base model are determined. The good ﬁt between the model and observed strong-motion records suggests that the new model is reasonably robust.

Introduction

Following the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government, in an effort to prevent future earthquake disasters, installed networks consisting of a large number of strong-motion observation stations, including K-NET (Kinoshita, 1998), which is operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention. Further, national seismic hazard maps were made public on an Internet website in March 2005 by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (1995). These maps indicate only the local seismic intensity for Japan, as empirically converted from peak velocity predicted by Si and Midorikawa (1999) in consolidated soils. For various applications, other strong-motion indexes such as the response spectral acceleration are required. Some empirical attenuation relations for the response spectra (e.g., Kobayashi and Midorikawa, 1982; Annaka et al., 1997) exist for Japan, but they were derived from a limited set of records. In this study, a database of whole Japanese strong ground motion records between 1963 and 2003 is established in order to identify a new standard attenuation relation for Japan, for response acceleration as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV). It is usually very difﬁcult to determine a suitable model form due to the large variability of strong-motion data and correlation among the model variables, because the strong coupling of variables in an attenuation model and the statistical power of the data is often not large enough to determine the necessity of these parameters (Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990). Therefore, we attempt to determine a simple form for average characteristics only with minimum parameters. The effects of other confusing parameters such as site geology, regional anomalies, and so forth will be corrected by bias reduction of residuals. This kind of correction has succeeded in the past; for example, the Nishimura and Horike (2003) model has additional parameters to accommodate those records that have large and systematic residuals, and Morikawa et al. (2003) determined additional correction terms for the Si and Midorikawa (1999) model to better predict the anomalous seismic intensity area in northeast Japan. Since confusing near-source phenomena can be ex-

879

T. Values of Mw and the source distance for data in countries other than Japan were acquired from the Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems (COSMOS). Narita. Taiwan. in this study.. N. (3) two orthogonal horizontal components are available. providing a total of 91. Considering the above. a comparison with actual data and existing attenuation relations conﬁrms that the new model is reasonably robust. same as Fukushima et al. Figure 2a and 2b shows . X) Ͻ log10 (1) (data from networks including mechanical seismometer) where log represents log10 in the present study.025 ן100. H. earthquake from the analysis. Fukushima We selected data from the database for regression analysis using the following criteria: (1) Mw is not smaller than 5. Data from countries other than Japan were taken from earthquakes in California. (2001). 1996).0033X מlog(X ם0.42Mw מ0. (3) Mw from the CMT catalog of Harvard University. earthquake yielded quite a lot of records. 1996). and 5% damped acceleration response spectra. and seismic wave propagation may be different than in other regions of the crust. the United States. These earthquakes occurred in the compressional regime and in shallow crust. Chang et al. We adopted moment magnitude Mw and source distance X as the parameters for the base model. theoretical approaches are valuable for very short fault-to-site distances.. matching conditions in Japan. (4) (Fukushima and Tanaka. respectively. 2000). We also used the hypocenter location determined by the Japan Metrological Agency.42Mw) ם1. X) Ͻ log10 and f (Mw . X) Ͻ log2 (data from other networks). and Boore (2001). The prediction parameters of our attenuation relation are horizontal peak ground acceleration. who developed an attenuation relation applicable to Nevada by collecting worldwide strong-motion records in extensional tectonic regimes. we introduce additional correction terms for site effects and regional anomalies. 788 records from 12 earthquakes in countries other than Japan were also used because the number of near-source data from large events in Japan is insufﬁcient. 2000). we collected all available Japanese seismic waveform data. remarkably low amplitudes are reported for this earthquake by Idriss and Abrahamson (2000).880 pected. a standard attenuation relation is very useful for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and will be essential to a future national seismic hazard map for Japan. we excluded data from the 1999 Chi-Chi. To improve the ﬁt of the base model.1 Hz was applied. and (5) data were truncated at an Mw-dependent source distance (Fukushima.0. 1989). and f (Mw . Fujiwara. Figure 1a and 1b shows the locations of the observation sites and earthquake epicenters used for the regression analysis. while low-frequency noise was eliminated from individual nondigital records by visual inspection. This kind of data extension has been successfully applied by Spudich et al. A possible explanation of these low amplitudes is that Taiwan is located on a much-fractured continental margin (Seno. For PGV: f (Mw . High-pass ﬁltering with a cutoff frequency of 0.22 (3) (2) Strong Ground Motion Database In this study. (2) data were recorded on the ground surface. ground motions simulated by theoretical methods are strongly dependent on the assumed model and not always warranted by the observations. As a matter of course. respectively. The peak value is the peak square root of the sum of squares of two orthogonal horizontal components in the time domain. Morikawa. 1997) as follows: For PGA and response spectra: f (Mw . These simulated results should be compared with average values estimated by an empirical attenuation relation. (2) Mw determined by Fnet (Fukuyama et al. (1997). Data distributions with respect to amplitude and source distance were examined for each magnitude. The number of observation sites in Japan and other countries totaled 2236 points and 305 points. Therefore. The source distance is the closest distance from a fault plane to the observation site and is the hypocentral distance in the case of earthquakes for which the fault model is not available. and the 5% damped horizontal acceleration response spectra. in this study we compile a database containing a large number of strong-motion records and then establish a base model that is able to capture the average characteristics of earthquake ground motion for PGA. X) ס0. except very close to fault. the 1999 Chi-Chi. Taiwan. and Y. horizontal peak ground velocity. as shown in Table 2. (4) at least ﬁve stations were triggered by the event. and Turkey. Nevertheless. A. and (4) Mw converted from Mj (Japanese seismic magnitude) by a semiempirical relation (Fukushima. we collected all available faultplane models for earthquakes with Mw greater than 6. Values of Mw were from the following references (in order of preference): (1) Mw summarized in the Fault Parameter Handbook (Sato. The number of data used in the regression analysis is shown in Table 1. PGV. Earthquake records from K-NET and KiKnet (Aoi et al. Kanno. 2000) were collected up to the 2003 Tokachioki earthquake and otherwise up to the end of 2002. However..731 records from 4967 earthquakes. 1992. Additionally.5. Further. Further. and those events having irregular distributions that could be associated with a particular geological/tectonic feature (such as volcanic earthquakes) were eliminated. Finally.

Youngs et al.5 19.10ϳ1. although several tectonic plates are subducting each other around Japan.50 5.00 PGV 5% Damped Acceleration Spectra (sec) 3392 73 377 10 8150 3391 73 377 10 8145 3391 73 377 10 8144 3391 73 377 10 8140 3391 73 377 10 8137 3380 73 375 10 8100 3360 73 375 10 8039 3312 73 371 10 7963 3311 73 371 10 7963 3205 70 331 10 7721 2057 61 352 10 6490 111 111 111 111 111 111 110 110 110 101 110 Table 2 Earthquakes in Countries Other Than Japan Used for Regression Analysis Source Region Country Origin Time (UT) (y/m/d h:m) Focal Depth (km) Mw San Fernando Imperial Valley Morgan Hill North Palm Springs Whittier Narrows Loma Prieta Landers Northridge Kocaeli Duzce USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA Turkey Turkey 1971/02/09 14:01 1979/10/15 23:17 1984/04/24 21:15 1986/07/08 09:20 1987/10/01 14:42 1989/10/18 00:04 1992/06/28 11:58 1994/01/17 12:30 1999/08/17 00:01 1999/11/12 16:57 8. 1997) for shallow events. or 5% damped response spectral acceleration (cm/sec2).1 6.4 7. subduction interface.50ϳ4. This fact may be due to almost the same path effect for the events of both categories. we used only two parameters (moment magnitude (Mw) and source distance (X)) and two equations.50ϳ3.3 6. and the difference is due to reﬂection and refraction of seismic waves at Moho. (2004) determined the coefﬁcient of Mw in the added distance term (e1) iteratively. . Their result was about 1.1 as a natural logarithm. b2. Regression Model Some existing attenuation relations account for different categories of source.. Differences in strong-motion attenuation characteristics among these source categories can be expected because the different tectonic locations may lead to different source characteristics and different travel paths for the seismic waves. To take account of source effect. because the focal depth of the two types of events is comparatively shallower than that of slab events. (5) (6) the magnitude-source distances for the PGA data used in the study. d1. In Si and Midorikawa (1999).5 6.e..0 14. D is the focal depth (km).30 1. one for shallow events and the other for deep events: log pre סa1 Mw םb1 X מlog(X םd1 • 10e1Mw) םc1 םe1 (D Յ 30 km) log pre סa2 Mw םb2 X מlog(X) םc2 םe2 (D Ͼ 30 km). 1997. However. and a1.4 12.4 11.20 1.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 881 Table 1 Number of Data Used for Regression Analysis Shallow Events Japan Period PGA Data 3392 Earthquake 73 Data 377 Others Earthquake 10 Data 8150 Deep Events Japan Earthquake 111 0. Truncation distance increases with increasing Mw. and c2 are the regression coefﬁcients. PGV (cm/sec). surface waves are predominant among seismic waves generated by shallow events while this is not usually so for deep events. we were not able to include stress drop as a variable because it cannot be deter- where pre is the predicted PGA (cm/sec2). The number of records from large earthquakes is relatively small and so is the number of deep events. 1981.. Midorikawa and Ohtake (2002) suggested that groundmotion records from shallow and deep earthquakes had different attenuation characteristics.0 6. In our base model. and this value is very close to 0.00 3. We investigated the depth effect of attenuation characteristics in our database and found that ground-motion amplitudes from earthquakes with focal depths greater than 30 km are considerably different from those of shallower events..00 1.1 14.7 7. earthquakes are divided into three categories. coefﬁcient e1 ס0.00 2.2 6.20 2. the increase in amplitude saturation with decreasing distance has to be described as a function of magnitude (e. Campbell.1 8.00 4.05ϳ1. Fukushima and Tanaka. On average.5 was selected for all periods in the present study.g.7 17.1 7. with earthquakes usually separated into three categories (i. 1990. crustal.50 1. Site effects and regional features (local anomalous seismic intensity) will be considered by additional correction terms.70ϳ2. only a slight difference can be seen between crustal and subduction interface earthquakes. stress drop may be the best physical parameter.6 6. which formed the basis for the national hazard mapping project. and subduction intraplate events) according to their tectonic locations. and Figure 2c shows the magnitude–focal depth distributions.0 17. Takahashi et al. Regression Analysis Method The base model accounting for average ground-motion characteristics was determined by the two-step stratiﬁed regression analysis method of Fukushima and Tanaka (1990).0 mined for all earthquakes in our dataset. b1. However.0 7. The effect of different paths depends on focal depth to a large degree. c1. as given in equation (4).6 4. e1 and e2 are errors between observed and predicted values. Therefore. a2.5 in the base-ten logarithmic scale. Further. For instance. Sadigh et al.

N. an iterative procedure (Fukushima et al.882 T.. Fukushima Figure 1.0 (25 Ͻ X Յ 50 km).0 (X Յ 25 km). H. In the case of shallow earthquakes. Narita. We weighted data in the near-source region to improve the near-source predictive ability of the model.5 (50 Ͻ X Յ 75 km).0 (X Ͼ 75 km). We used the same weighting scheme as adopted by Midorikawa and Ohtake (2003): 6. Morikawa. The weighting scheme has no physical meaning but is a useful approach for increasing the statistical power of the near-source data. and 1. 3. Kanno. and Y. 2003) was applied because of the nonlinear term in equation (5). A. Fujiwara. 1. . (a) Observation site locations and (b) epicenters of earthquakes used in regression analysis.

Hi denotes the thickness (m) and Vsi denotes the shear-wave velocity (m/sec) of the ith layer. the acceleration response spectra from deep earthquakes are almost the same as those from shallow events.and 80-km source distances. It is deﬁned as AVS d סd ͚ (H /V ) . Another possible reason may be the lower attenuation of high-frequency radiation in high-Q subduction zones (Youngs et al. 1997). Boore et al. Figure 6 shows the almost linear correlation relationship that we used to estimate AVS30 from AVS20 for the K-NET sites. we attempt to derive a correlation equation between AVS20 and AVS30 from the results of PS-logging at KiK-net sites. A possible explanation of the signiﬁcant difference at short periods is this high stress drop.0. we assumed the following simple equation for site effects.. but the short-period response spectra from deep events are much larger than those from shallow events. Lussou et al. Figure 5c compares the response spectra of shallow and deep events at 40. Therefore. and 80 km for shallow events and 40. 20. Nevertheless. for example. 1997. respectively. Zhao et al. Magnitude–distance and magnitude–focal-depth distributions for PGA. K-NET has many observation sites with PS-logging down to a depth of 20 m. At long periods. and prediction for close distances is not essential.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 883 Figure 2. and 5% damped response spectral acceleration are given in Tables 3 and 4 and Figure 3. however. Morikawa and Sasatani (2004) indicated extremely high stress drop for slab events in northeast Japan. The amplitude saturation characteristics at short distance are constrained by most crustal events. Additional Correction Terms Site Effects The average shear-wave velocity at an observation station was adopted as the parameter representing site conditions.5. 1993. The attenuation rate with increasing source distance for PGA is considerably larger than that for PGV.0 events. The source distances are 5. subduction events in Japan usually occur offshore. although predominant period dependence was eliminated: G סlog(obs/pre) סp log AVS30 םq .. Results Determined regression coefﬁcients for the base model in equations (5) and (6) for PGA. 2001) have adopted d ס30 m. and 8. respectively. 2000. The difference at short periods is signiﬁcant. Figure 4 shows PGA and PGV attenuation curves for magnitudes of 6. suggesting that short-period ground motions attenuate faster than long-period ground motions. the region within several tens of kilometers from the subduction interface of a large magnitude event is out of the applicable range. 80. The magnitude dependence of PGV is stronger than that of PGA. AVS30 was estimated at a total of 1081 sites among the total of 3422 sites registered in our database. The number of observation sites used to derive this additional correction term was reduced by above data selection criteria to 905 and 855 points for PGA and PGV. PGV. Some previous studies (Matsuoka and Midorikawa. although this is available for the KiK-net sites. 7.0. 40. On the other hand. and predicted values for Mw ם8. and 200 km for deep events. although both crustal and subduction interface events fall into the category of shallow events. Building Seismic Safety Council. (2004) used individual ampliﬁcation factors for four discrete site classes.5. (8) . Figure 4a and b is for shallow and deep events. not all observation sites have PS-logging down to 30-m depth..0 and a distance of less than 20 km are indicated by dotted lines in Figure 4. In order to use average shear-wave velocity at 30-m depth to represent site conditions for K-NET stations. In order to obtain a continuous site correction term. Figure 5a and b shows the predicted acceleration response spectra for shallow and deep magnitude 7. as also found by Si and Midorikawa (1999). iס1 i si n (7) where n is the number of strata layers down to depth d (m). 120. 7.

0044 2.0031 c1 0.39 0.69 מ0.0041 0.38 0. Coefﬁcients p and q were derived by regression analysis on the residuals averaged at intervals of every 100 m/sec in AVS30.17 0.56 e2 0.12 0.0053 0.66 0.45 0.0005 מ3.0039 0.0022 0.26 0.57 0.27 0.75 מ0.97 0.88 0.0060 0.0021 0.41 0.49 מ0.41 0.50 5.30 1.41 b2 מ0.90 1. Morikawa.41 0.40 0.40 0.0040 0.54 מ0.41 0.0016 0.71 מ0.0032 מ0.09 0.53 מ0.0037 0.0022 0.20 1.38 0. as examples.50 5.38 מ0.0042 2.40 מ0.39 מ0.0062 0.41 0. PGV.38 מ0.24 0.0018 0.0024 0.5–3.46 0.45 0.44 0.30 0.68 מ0.37 0.06 0.48 0.48 0.19 0.70 0.71 מ0.0032 0.02 0.19 0.0006 מ1.59 מ0.0019 0.38 0.66 מ0.24 0.0045 0.89 0.40 0.00 PGV 5% Damped Acceleration Response Spectra (sec) 0.0017 מ1. Narita.62 מ0.0039 0.0028 0.0019 0.0002 מ2.0006 מ1.0022 0.59 מ0.0055 e1 0.44 0.40 0.13 0.00 4.20 0.47 מ0. and 5% Damped Acceleration Response Spectra Period PGA a1 0.45 0.79 מ0.99 0.91 0.40 0.41 0.08 0.40 0.0064 0. The second modal period of a soil site is approximately the natural period divided by 2.00 1.93 0.68 מ0. Kanno.0062 0. A.0026 0.41 0.39 0.0017 מ1.41 0.0018 מ0.0041 0.42 0.0036 0.40 0.40 מ0.0021 0.70 2.46 מ0.10 0.27 0.46 0.80 0.62 0.0004 מ2.41 0.52 מ0.58 מ0.0017 מ1.35 0. and 5% Damped Acceleration Response Spectra Period PGA a2 0.0040 1.09 0.63 מ0. so equation (8) can be applied to wide AVS30 range.79 מ0.0048 0.22 0. while Table 5 pres- ents the coefﬁcients for equation (8).39 מ0.50 4.76 0.20 2.46 0.41 0.0037 0.00 3.0040 0.13 0.30 0.00 3.56 מ0.75 0.12 0. H.84 0.41 0.83 0.50 4.96 0.86 מ0.0016 מ2.35 0.42 0.33 0.10 1.54 מ0.0044 0. A considerable decrease of the averaged residuals with increasing AVS30 can be seen in the ﬁgure.73 0.884 T.07 0.40 0.0017 מ2.40 מ0.26 d1 0.40 0.55 מ0.0020 מ0. PGV.40 0.70 0.41 0.96 0.62 מ0.04 0.0021 מ0.0021 0.0043 2.84 מ0.08 0.0040 0. (9) Figure 7 shows.38 0.38 0.0035 0.45 מ0.38 0.95 0.80 0.0042 1.0026 0.72 0.00 1.51 0.60 0. and Y.86 0.30 1.36 where G is an additional correction term corresponding to site effects and log(obs/pre) is the residual between the observed amplitude of PGA.0020 0.43 מ0.25 0.22 0.43 0.73 מ0. Figure 8a shows absolute values of correlation coefﬁcients between model residuals and AVS30.13 0.36 0.12 0.22 0.0014 0.0030 0.38 מ0.42 0.45 0.52 מ0.74 מ0.40 0.41 מ0.60 0. Fukushima Table 3 Regression Coefﬁcients for Shallow Event Model of PGA.76 0.0032 0.0014 מ0.51 מ0.0030 0.0032 1.0022 0.0019 0.17 0.89 0.08 0.0005 מ1.00 4.53 מ0.0017 מ1.0043 2.41 0. and spectral acceleration (obs) and the values predicted (pre) by the base model in equations (5) and (6).92 מ0.54 מ0.21 0.37 Table 4 Regression Coefﬁcients for Deep Event Model of PGA.38 מ0.12 0.0023 0.67 0.70 2.37 0.65 מ0.0056 0.13 0.14 0.40 0.0020 0.94 מ0.45 0.08 0.50 1. However the correlation coefﬁcient at around 0.0017 מ1.59 מ0.72 מ0.0023 0.56 מ0.0009 מ0.82 מ0.99 0.39 מ0.41 0.70 0.0038 0.0029 0.0005 מ1.50 3.04 0.35 0.57 0. The predicted value after applying the additional correction terms corresponding to site effects (preG) can be simply interpreted as follows: log preG סlog pre םG .43 0.85 0.08 0.49 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.57 מ0.0009 מ1.39 0.0007 מ1.0041 1.38 מ0.41 0.50 0.40 0.50 3.41 0. Fujiwara.41 0.39 0.80 0.11 0.40 0.05 0.40 0.64 מ0.0033 0.15 0.41 0.46 0.0036 1.15 0.41 0.35 0. the relations between averaged residuals and AVS30 for PGA and PGV.12 0.45 0.03 0.0022 מ0.38 מ0.0040 1.32 0.0041 1.40 0.32 0.0004 מ3.38 מ0.25 0.10 1.50 מ0.50 1.77 מ0.0069 0.93 0.60 מ0.51 מ0.40 0.08 0.20 2.06 0.73 מ0.50 0.0039 c2 1.0003 מ2.14 0.46 0.22 0.0025 0.53 מ0.1 sec is smaller than that at other period ranges.90 1.52 מ0.0016 מ2.0 .20 1.00 PGV 5% Damped Acceleration Response Spectra (sec) 0.39 0.0020 מ0.0073 0.0065 0.0011 מ0.10 0.37 0.20 0.0042 2.54 מ0.54 מ0.38 0.72 0.0017 0.70 מ0.0025 0.0071 0.0022 0. Statistical tendency of the additional site effect correction increases with the correlation coefﬁcients.0038 1. We can see enough high value of the cross-correlation.00 2.90 מ0.0044 2.0039 0.0034 1.0034 0.46 0.11 0.82 מ0.38 0.0061 0.92 מ0.0003 מ2.75 0. PGV.0012 מ0.0009 מ1.80 0.72 0.56 b1 מ0.56 מ0.00 2.42 0.0043 2.52 מ0.63 0.0030 1.0004 מ2.46 0.0044 2.41 0.40 0.08 0.0044 2.05 0.77 מ0.39 0.40 0.54 0.49 0.0061 0.0007 מ3.80 מ0.43 מ0.0014 0.38 0.40 0.51 מ0.0066 0.70 0.37 0. A possible explanation of this dip is that site ampliﬁcation effects at short periods may be the second or higher mode responses of soil sites. N.40 0.07 0.

including the trough at a period of around 1 sec.2 sec). PGV. Further. while the third modal period is approximately the natural period divided by 4.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 885 Figure 3. It is also possible that moderate nonlinear soil deformation at a soft soil site might considerably alter the ampliﬁcation ratios at short periods. This leads to the possibility that ground motion at 0. though only a small number of records in our dataset are large enough to induce nonlinear soil deformation. the stability of the correction function was investigated by looking at the zero-crossing points of equation (8). the period and ampliﬁcation ratio of the second or higher mode would depend on the precise variation of soil shear-wave velocity with depth. in Figure 8b. Figure 9 shows how the standard deviation decreases after introducing the site correction terms. Actually. This demonstrates that the proposed correction is very effective around this period. (1994) and Boore et al. which corresponds to the shear-wave velocity dependence of site ampliﬁcation. and 5% damped acceleration response spectra in equations (5) and (6). for a soil layer with a uniform or moderately increasing shear-wave velocity with increasing depth. .1 sec may be related to the second mode for a site with a natural period of 0. which is not easily represented by AVS30.0–5. This dependence is generally greater than determined by Midorikawa et al. Although this reduction in standard deviation can be seen in almost every period range. On the other hand. However. In this period range.3 sec and the third mode for a site with a natural period of 0.4 sec or longer. the zero-crossing point should be at approximately 300 m/sec of predominant in our database. meaning that the residuals strongly depend on AVS30. the standard deviation decreases considerably at a period of around 1 sec. whatever the period range. but the pattern of variation with period is very similar to these earlier results.0. Although the equation was determined from averaged residuals for individual intervals in AVS30. Regression coefﬁcients for PGA. a signiﬁcant dip in p value can be seen in Figure 8c. AVS30 values of the zero-cross points are concentrated around 300 m/sec. Figure 8c shows coefﬁcient p in equation (8). (1997). the standard deviation decreases only slightly in the short-period range (Ͻ0.

and (c) a comparison of the response spectra between shallow and deep events at 40 and 80 km source distances. N. Kanno.886 T.0: (a) shallow earthquake.5. H. Predicted acceleration response spectra for magnitude 7. Fukushima Figure 4. Narita. Attenuation curves of PGA and PGV for Mw 6. A. and Y. Fujiwara. 7. (b) deep earthquake.0 (a) for shallow and (b) deep events at representative source distances. Figure 5. and 8. 7. .0.5. Morikawa.

(2003) proposed additional correction terms for the attenuation relations given by Si and Midorikawa (1999). This phenomenon is explained by a unique Q structure beneath the island-arc region shown in Figure 10c (Utsu. a where A is additional correction term corresponding to anomalous seismic intensity. Umino and Hasegawa. The procedure is the same as that of Morikawa et al. which is a depth correction term deﬁned by A סlog(obs/pre) • ␣( סRtr םb) • (D מ30) . respectively (e. and Izu-Bonin trenches. 1967). and (3) observation sites provide estimated AVS30. (2) observation sites located to the east of 137Њ longitude east. Our analysis reveals similar bias. as shown in Figure 10. Namely. Japan. . AVS30. Relationship between AVS20 and Anomalous Seismic Intensity in Northeast Japan Intermediate and deep earthquakes occurring in the Paciﬁc plate usually generate anomalous seismic intensity in Japan’s northeast. (10) Figure 6. 1984). Relationship between residual and AVS30 for PGA and PGV. In order to accommodate this regional anomaly. and ␣ and b are the regression coefﬁcients. (2003). while amplitudes on the back-arc side of the volcanic front (with large Rtr) are smaller due to seismic waves propagating long distances within the underlying low Q mantle wedge. This anomalous seismic intensity is a large-scale abnormal distribution of relatively larger ground motions that cannot be explained by source or site effects.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 887 considerable contrast in Q is expected. Actually. Morikawa et al. amplitudes in the fore-arc (with small Rtr) region become larger as seismic waves propagate long distances within a high Q slab.g. Rtr is the shortest distance from the observation site to the Kuril. The predicted value after applying the additional correction terms corresponding to anomalous seismic intensity (preA) can be also interpreted as Figure 7. seismic waves to a fore-arc propagate shorter in low-Q zone than those to a back-arc. A subdataset for this depth correction is extracted from among deep earthquakes (30 km or deeper) satisfying the following criteria: (1) hypocenters located in the Paciﬁc plate. Figure 10a). The formulation of equation (10) is able to qualitatively explain the characteristics of seismic-wave attenuations caused by the unique Q structure beneath northeast Japan as shown inFigure 10c. the shortest distance from the site to the trench axis. that is.. These anomalous larger ground motions have been observed more commonly in fore-arc side (south or east of volcanoes) than in back-arc side (north or west of volcanoes. and we also introduce the additional correction terms to the base model plus the site correction terms described in the last section. it is about 300 or less and 1500 or more for low Q and high Q. For deeper events.

30 1.35 5% Damped Acceleration Response Spectra (sec) 0.78 0. H.25 מ0. (c) Coefﬁcient p of equation (8) corresponding to dependence of AVS30.43 1.35 0.45 מ0. Figure 11 shows the standard deviations with and without the correction terms in equation (10).29 0.98 2.46 PGV מ0.88 2.50 מ0.20 מ0.24 0.77 log preA סlog pre םA .80 מ0.25 0. N. . Morikawa.32 0.13 מ0.12 מ0.66 1.20 מ0.35 מ0. This ﬁnding agrees with the results obtained by Maeda and Sasatani (2002).26 1.94 0.09 מ0.00 מ0.13 0. Kanno.96 0.50 מ0. A.18 0.30 מ0.74 0.00 מ0.28 0.91 2.83 2.92 2.72 1.07 מ0. Narita.72 1.47 0.60 מ0.93 2. However.04 0. For PGA and the response spectra at short periods.08 מ0.41 0.60 0.54 4.30 0.59 1.70 מ0.65 0. (b) AVS30 at the zero-crossing point of equation (8) for the individual period.84 0. (11) Estimates of the coefﬁcients in equation (10) are given in Table 6.53 1.44 1.10 מ0.70 3.96 2.89 2.32 1. Solid line indicates overall average and shaded band indicates the standard deviation.72 0.75 1.46 0.82 0.65 0.39 0.50 5.50 מ0.80 3.68 1.32 0.15 מ0.71 1. Fukushima Table 5 Obtained Coefﬁcients in Equation (8) Period PGA p מ0.92 2.78 1. Fujiwara.00 מ0.64 0.80 1.00 מ0.26 0.85 2.06 2.68 1.50 מ0.90 מ0.62 1.888 T.70 מ0.85 2.11 מ0.12 1.76 1.88 2.91 2.20 1.17 מ0.80 0. the correction term has relatively little effect on PGV and response spectra with a period beyond 0.30 מ0.87 2.97 2. who suggested that the difference in Q value between fore. the reduction in standard deviation is considerably large.26 0.09 0. Figure 8.50 מ0.60 1.6 sec.and backarc sides (where a high Q value may cause anomalous seismic intensity) was not signiﬁcant for periods over 1 sec.10 מ0.92 2.06 מ0.61 1.22 מ0.20 מ0.55 q 1.00 מ0.64 4.05 מ0. (a) Correlation coefﬁcients between residual and AVS30.40 מ0. and Y.

In this ﬁgure. respectively. AYK97. respectively. Boore et al. (1997). (1997). BJF97.. (1997). Annaka et al. SM99. and Midorikawa and Ohtake (2002). Discussion Comparison with Existing Attenuation Relations Figure 12 compares ground motions predicted by our model with existing models. (b) deep earthquake. Standard deviations before and after applying the additional correction terms corresponding to site effects: (a) shallow earthquake. and MO02 denote Fukushima and Tanaka (1992). On the contrary. Magnitude Mw 7. The attenuation characteristics of predicted PGA and PGV for deep events agree well with the . FT92. PGV values predicted for shallow events by our model bend more gently in the near-source region than others. (c) Schematic illustration of the unique Q structure beneath northeast Japan and ray paths for intermediate-depth earthquakes (Morikawa et al. Broken line is the trench axis. (a) Example of anomalous seismic intensity in northeast Japan. A focal depth D ס10 km was used for shallow crustal earthquakes and D ס60 km was used for deep in- traplate earthquakes. The site conditions for PGA and PGV were assumed to be 300 and 600 m/sec for soil and rock. (b) epicenters of data used for estimating the additional correction terms for anomalous seismic intensity in northeast Japan.0 was used in all cases because damage often occurs in Japan when the magnitude exceeds 7. These depths are the average values in our database. 2003). The PGA values predicted for shallow events by our model are similar to those predicted by the other models.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 889 Figure 9. corresponding to the models of Si and Midorikawa (1999) and Midorikawa and Ohtake (2002). and the amplitude is almost 2 times larger than that of Annaka et al. Figure 10. Si and Midorikawa (1999).

00 4.09 ן מ6.53 ן10מ6 4.63 ן10מ5 6.60 0.0. intraevent.44 ן מ3. for short periods less than 0.61 ן10מ6 3.50 ן10מ5 8.52 ן מ8.15 ן 3. Spectral accelerations for shallow events predicted by our model agree reasonably well with those predicted by others.60 ן10מ5 1. A. the predicted PGV is almost same as the Midorikawa and Ohtake (2002) value and about 1.30 0.07 0.18 ן10מ5 2. Morikawa.18 ן10מ5 7.23 ן מ6. with no correction terms at all.24 ן10מ3 Midorikawa and Ohtake (2002) model.12 0. and preЈ all is the predicted value under the normalization conditions (Fukushima et al.25 0.08 0. The attenuation model for deep events ﬁts the data very well at all distances. but from the lack of sufﬁcient data for these amplitude and distance ranges Figure 15 shows the distribution of total.35 ן מ2. The PGA and PGV values close to the source fault are around 750 cm/sec2 and 80 cm/sec.96 ן מ5.20 1. These residual distributions suggest that PGAs and PGVs at short distance and large amplitudes can be better estimated by our model than those at long distance and small amplitude.22 ן10מ5 2.11 0. and the depth correction terms have also been used in the model for deep events in the northeast of Japan.70 2.11 ן 2.54 ן10מ5 2.02 ן10מ5 2. D ס10 km.40 0.00 PGV 5% Damped Acceleration Response Spectra (sec) 2.53 ן10מ6 4.56 ן מ8.07 ן10מ5 1.70 0.99 ן10מ5 2.38 ן10מ5 5.54 ן מ4.37 ן מ7.15 ן10מ5 2.16 ן10מ5 7.35 0. The correction for the three deepest events appears to be too severe. and interevent residuals with respect to focal depth for events with a focal depth larger than 30 km.06 0.73 ן10 מ5 2. (12) 7. (1997) at a source distance of 50 km. 2003).88 ן10מ5 9. The residuals decrease with increasing predicted amplitude and with decreasing source distance.50 4. Narita.94 ן10מ5 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ2 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 10מ3 Figure 13 compares values predicted using the attenuation models developed in this study with corresponding values calculated from the records. The bias in the total error distribution is largely from interevent residuals. Fukushima Table 6 Obtained Coefﬁcients in Equation (10) Period PGA Comparison with Observed Records and Residuals of the New Attenuation Models b מ2 ␣ מ6.99 ן10מ5 2. while the other normalization parameters are the same as those for the shallow events.51 ן מ7.5 times larger than that predicted by Si and Midorikawa (1999) or Annaka et al.13 ן10מ6 2.08 ן מ1. Distributions of total residuals between observed and predicted PGAs and PGVs (log (obs/pre)) with respect to source distance and predicted values are shown in Figure 14.09 0.19 ן מ2. which took account of the different attenuation rates for shallow and deep events.30 1.51 ן מ4.05 ן מ1. The observed data were normalized as follows: log obsЈ סlog obs מlog preall םlog preall Ј . Figure 13a and b shows a comparison of attenuation curves obtained in the present study with data normalized to Mw 7. and AVS30 ס300 m/sec (soil) from shallow earthquakes.45 0. Kanno. respectively. the bias with respect to focal depth has improved for most events within a focal depth of 140 km. However. where obsЈ is the normalized data. Fujiwara.13 0.54 ן מ8. This large difference may be a result of using very different databases.80 0.67 ן מ4.80 ן מ4.47 ן מ8.15 0.52 ן מ1.50 1.50 5.78 ן מ5.50 0.08 ן10מ5 2.51 ן מ7.85 ן מ1.20 0. the intraevent residuals are not biased with focal depth but the interevent residuals are.00 1.06 ן10מ5 1. leading to a slight . Although this property is also indicated by Midorikawa and Ohtaka (2003).95 ן10מ5 7.44 ן מ1.00 2.10 1.18 ן10מ6 3.50 3.26 ן10מ5 2.62 ן10מ5 1.61 ן מ1. Figure 13c and d compare data for deep events.20 2..60 ן10מ6 2. The ﬁrst row of plots in Figure 15a show that.95 ן מ4.62 ן10מ5 1.48 ן מ2.53 ן מ7.38 ן מ6.890 T. it may result not from the modeling.49 ן10מ6 2.18 ן10מ5 5.23 ן10מ5 2.50 ן מ8.28 ן10מ6 2. Note that site correction terms have been incorporated for both shallow and deep events.41 ן10מ5 1.42 ן מ8.90 1. spectral accelerations predicted by our model for deep events are much lager than those predicted by the Annaka et al.47 ן10מ5 1.06 ן 9. However. The mean values of total error increase with focal depth up to 70 km and then appear to be constant for deeper events.27 ן מ2. The second row in Figure 15a shows that the depth correction terms have reduced the intraevent residuals considerably but the interevent error has increased slightly. (1997) model.10 0.55 ן מ8.01 ן10מ6 2.4 sec.09 ן10 0.01 ן 2. H. and Y.00 3. preall is the predicted value for identical parameters with observed data. N.19 ן מ2. These data were normalized to D ס60 km and Rtr without the inﬂuence of the anomalous seismic intensity. and this is a desirable property for engineering applications.05 0.53 ן10מ5 2.78 ן10מ5 מ8.17 0.22 0.99 ן10מ5 2. Figure 15a is for PGA.

AYK99. positive for Rtr Ͻ 300 km. Si and Midorikawa (1999). while those at sites on the back-arc side. where Rtr Ͼ 300 km. Standard deviations before and after applying the additional correction terms corresponding to anomalous seismic intensity in northeast Japan. BJF97. increase in interevent standard deviation. and Midorikawa and Ohtake (2002).28 while the interevent error increases slightly. (1997). We expect stress drop to increase with increasing focal depth for deep events and anticipate that this effect can be accounted for by the depth term in our correction term. Figure 12. we implicitly assumed in equation (10) that the trench axis parallels the volcanic front. and MO02 are Fukushima and Tanaka (1992). and negative for Rtr Ͼ 300 km. are attenuated. respectively. Comparison of new attenuation curves with others: FT92. Residuals in the third row of Figure 15a show that the correction term for site conditions has a marginal effect on PGA. Boore et al. (1997). the correction term ampliﬁes the spectra at sites on the fore-arc side where Rtr Ͻ 300 km. . For most periods. the correction factor of equation (10) is zero when Rtr is about 300 km. Annaka et al. Interevent errors for events deeper than 140 km decrease with increasing focal depth after applying correction factors to accommodate the anomalous seismic intensity.27 from 0. On the other hand. with intraevent error being reduced to 0. Therefore.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 891 Figure 11. SM99.

Fujiwara. H. and the overestimation of spectra for these events by equation (10) leads to an apparent bias in interevent errors for events with a focal depth of 140 km or more shown in Figure 15a. all strong-motion data for earthquakes deeper than 140 km are from the eastern part of Hokkaido. and IzuBonin regions (Fig. Solid and broken lines are the new attenuation curves and standard deviations. A. The distance between the volcanic front and the trench axis decreases in the eastern Hokkaido.35). Comparison of attenuation curves obtained in this study with normalized data. Normalization parameters for deep events are D ס60 km and Rtr without inﬂuence of anomalous seismic intensity. For this part of Japan.892 T.40 to 0. In our database. and Y. Morikawa. Note that the anomalous . Data are normalized to Mw 7. southern Kuril. N.0. D ס10 km. Fukushima Figure 13. In contrast to the case of PGA. This result may suggest that we should use other parameters instead of Rtr. where the site correction terms lead to minimal reduction in total and intraevent error. Figure 15b is for the 5% damped response acceleration of 1-sec period. and AVS30 ס300 m/sec (soil) for shallow events. leading to overestimations of spectra in the eastern part of Hokkaido and Izu-Bonin islands. 10a). while others are the same as those for shallow events. the site correction terms at 1 sec lead to signiﬁcant reduction of intraevent errors (from 0.27) and total errors (from 0. Narita.33 to 0. equation (10) enhances the predicted response spectra when Rtr Ͻ 300 km but the seismic waves reaching these sites have been attenuated (passing the low Q mantle wedge). Kanno.

such as PGA and PGV.731 records from 4967 . and used them to establish a new database. we proposed new standard attenuation relations not only for peak values. Based on the new database. Relationship between residuals and (1) fault distance and (2) predicted amplitude. Figure 16 shows the distribution of PGA residuals with respect to moment magnitude. as a contribution to a future national seismic hazard map of Japan. The conclusions of the study can be summarized as follows: • We assembled the largest possible number of seismic waveforms. but also for 5% damped acceleration response spectra. “Error” in these ﬁgures means total error between observed and predicted values. Conclusions We collected all available Japanese seismic waveform data. including those from the many strong-motion observation stations set up by the Japanese government and other organizations. obtaining a total of 91. as expected. There is no bias in total.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 893 Figure 14. and interevent errors. A large number of high-quality strong-motion records were obtained from these new networks. intraevent. seismic intensity correction terms produce a marginal reduction in intraevent errors at long periods.

Morikawa.894 T.S. H. . N.I. Data that can be corrected for site effects (S. Kanno. Fujiwara.) are selected.E.) and anomalous seismic intensity in northeast Japan (A. and Y. Fukushima Figure 15. Relationship between residual and focal depth for (a) PGA and (b) 5% damped acceleration response of 1-sec period for deep events. Narita. A.

The University of Shiga Prefecture. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry. Ishikawa. Dr. Port and Airport Research Institute. Matsumura-gumi Corporation. Japan Railway Company Group. Yamazaki. F. National Research Institute for Earthquake Science and Disaster Prevention: K-NET and KiK-net. Hanshin Expressway Public Corporation. Osaka Gas Co. Pitarka. 91. Acknowledgments We express our thanks to Dr. who kindly provided us with the strong-motion data: California Division of Water Resources. Dr. D.. Konoike Construction Co. Tokyo Electric Power Company. A. T. no focal-depth dependency of the residuals is clear for events deeper than 70 km. Kansai Electric Power Company. Kobe City Ofﬁce. EOS Trans. D. Midorikawa) who gave much valuable advice. Dr. S. Spurr. Additional correction terms accounting for site effects were introduced as a function of average shear-wave velocity from the ground surface to 30 m in depth (AVS30). Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation. Okumura.542 records from 184 events in Japan and 377 records from 10 events elsewhere for regression analysis. 24th JSCE Earthquake Eng. The Association for Earthquake Disaster Prevention. (c) interevent error. Somerville. (b) intraevent error. National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management. Zhao. Aoi. S. P. and Y... We selected 11. K. Am. California Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program. Obara. Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. intraevent and interevent errors with respect to moment magnitude are not biased. Katahira (1997). Obayashi Corporation. Dr. Residuals decrease with increasing predicted amplitude and decreasing source distance. Kyoto University. Seism.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data 895 Figure 16. Dr. T. J. Ishii. .. Y. and the committee on probabilistic seismic hazard map (Chairman: Prof. Shiga Prefecture. M. Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Authority. The Committee of Earthquake Observation and Research in the Kansai Area. in Proc. Geophys. 161–164 (in Japanese). Hori. Ltd. Distributions of total. (2001). Residuals seem to increase with focal depth for earthquakes shallower than 70 km. T. • • • • • • events in Japan and 788 records from 12 events in countries other than Japan. Okada (2000). Sato. United States Geological Survey. Kasahara. Relationship between residuals of PGA and moment magnitude: (a) total error. and the University of Southern California (in alphabetical order). An additional correction term corresponding to the anomalous seismic intensity in northeast Japan improves the prediction accuracy for PGA and 5% damped acceleration response spectra at short periods. Dr. an anonymous reviewer. Ltd. A proposal of an attenuation model for peak ground motions and 5% damped acceleration response spectra based on the JMA-87 type strong motion accelerograms. References Annaka. Soc. Earthquake Research Department. Maeda Corporation. Southern California Edison. Comparisons of ground motions from the 1999 ChiChi earthquake with empirical predictions largely based on data from California. Mr. Japan Meteorological Agency. T. S. Bull. Union 81.. However. K. Two simple regression models were adopted for shallow (focal depth of 30 km or less) and deep (focal depth of more than 30 km) events. We would like to acknowledge the following organizations and others. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Boore. Am. Railway Technical Research Institute. and F. Symposium. New strongmotion observation network: KiK-net. The new standard attenuation relations used in this study are able to capture the strong-motion attenuation characteristics of sites with an AVS30 of approximately 300 m/ sec. 329. 1212–1217.

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Ltd. Tsukuba Mitsui Building 1-6-1.) National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention 3-1. Japan anarita@mi. Tsukuba Ibaraki.) Manuscript received 11 July 2005.A New Attenuation Relation for Strong Ground Motion in Japan Based on Recorded Data Mitsubishi Space Software Co. Etchujima. 135-8530. Tsukuba Ibaraki.go. Japan morikawa@bosai.co. 305-0006.jp (N. Takezono.jp (A.jp (Y. 305-0032.N. Koto-ku Tokyo.fukushima@shimz..) Institute of Technology Shimizu Corporation 3-4-14.F.. H. 897 .jp fujiwara@bosai. Japan yoshimitsu.mss.co.F. Tennodai.go.M.

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