SISTEM REKAYASA SIPIL Acuan : A Sistem Approach To Civil Engineering Planning And esign Planning And Design Process

System Approach e!inition o! pro"lem System Analysis e!inition o! s#stem componen

$athering o! data

ata a%uisition and anal#sis

evelopment o! evaluate criteria

&"'ective !unction

(ormulation o! alternatives

Model "uilding and Esta"lishment o! constraints

Evaluation o! alternatives

&ptimi)ation and * or economic !easi"ilit#

Choosing "est alternative

(inal design*plan and implementation

Management techni%ues PERT * CPM

PLA++I+$ * ESI$+ Planning : Is the !ormulation o! goals and o"'ectives that are consistent ,ith political- socialenvironmental- economic- technological- and aesthetic constrains. and the general de!inition o! procedures designed to meet those goals and o"'ectives/ Should "e involved in all aspects o! an engineering pro'ect- including preliminar# Investigations- !easi"ilit# studies- detailed anal#sis and speci!ication !or implementation and*or construction- and monitoring and maintenance/ esign The Accreditation 0oard !or Engineering and Technolog# 1A0ET 23456- de!ines design The process o! devising a s#stem- component- or process to meet desired needs/ It is a decision7ma8ing process 1o!ten iterative6- in ,hich the "asic sciences- mathematics- and engineering sciences are applied to con!ert resources optimall# to meet a stated o"'ective/ Among the !undamental elements o! the design process are the esta"lishment o! o"'ectives and criteria- s#nthesis- anal#sis- construction- testing- and evaluation/ 9ill 123426 has stated that students ,ho have mastered the !undamentals o! design ,ill ha"ittuall# 2/ $et a correct ans,er to the correct pro"lem :/ 0e counted on to : a/ Ma8e appropriate assumtions "/ Select reasona"le values !or missing data ;/ Set up pro"lems in a concise ta"ular !rom ,hen iterative or repetitive calculation are re%uire </ Esta"lish an e!!icient procedure "e!ore attempting to solve a pro"lem- and than use that procedure =/ Relate mathematical models to their real7,orld counterparts >/ 9ave an understanding o! the limitations o! design !ormulas and pertinent design Procedures ?/ 9ave the a"ilit# to com!orta"l# and con!identl# a/ Arrive at an appropriate solution "/ See8 the help o! a consultant 1specialist6 4/ etermine the most e!!icient computational tool- mind- calculator or computer Interaction of planning and design The planning and design processes complement each other/ Essentiall# the same steps are re%uired in "oth- and the s#stem approach can "e applied e%uall# as e!!ectivel# to either process/ The s#stem approach is essentiall# a planning !rame,or8 to improve the design process/

A!ter the designer determines the "est design !or the end product- "e it a high7rise "uilding or a section o! high,a#- the orderl# implementation 1construction6 o! the must "e planed/ SYSTEMS A s#stem is some collection o! components that are connected "# some t#pe o! interaction or interrelationship/ These components collectivel# ,ill respond to a given input and produce some !orm o! output/ The s#stems approach can also "e thought o! as a s#stem- ,hich the tools o! s#stems anal#sis comprising its components/ epicts the p#ramidal structure o! a t#pical hierarch# o! s#stems S#stem Transportation s#stem

su" s#stem E@press,a# s#stem

su" s#stem Air transport s#stem

component Interchanges

component 9igh,a# segment

component Air tra!!ic control

component Airport

Systems Approach The s#stems approach is a general pro"lem7 solving techni%ue that "rings more o"'ectivit# to the planning*design processes/ The s#stems approach esta"lishes the proper mood o! in%uir# and helps in the selection o! the "est course o! action that ,ill accomplish a presscri"ed goal "# "roadening the in!ormation "ase o! the decision ma8er/

Activity overlap and feedback within systems approach Time e!inition o! pro"lem

$athering o! data

evelopment eval/ crit/

(ormulation o! altr/

Evaluation o! altr/

Choosing "est altr/

(inal plan*design and implementation

Problem definition: ma# re%uire iteration and care!ul investigation- "ecause pro"lem s#mtoms ma# mas8 the true cause the pro"lem/ athering data: to asisst in planning and design decision ma8ing through the s#stems approach ,ill generall# "e done in con'uction ,ith several steps/ 1set varia"les and parameters through statistical o"servation- suggest ,hat mathematical models- and chec8 the validit# o! an# estimated s#stem outputs6 Development of eval!ative criteria: to measure the degree o! attainment o! s#stem o"'ectives/ 1some evaluative criteria ,ill provide an a"solute value o! ho, good the solution is6

"orm!lation of alternative: is essentiall# the development o! s#stem models that is con'unction ,ith evaluative criteria ,ill "e used in later anal#sis an decision ma8ing 1 it should not "e assumed that mathematical model "uilding and optimi)ation techni%ues are either re%uired or su!!icient !or application o! the s#stems approach/6 An optimi)ation model is a conceptual model consisting o! some o"'ective !unction 1evaluative criterion6 that is to "e ma@imi)ed or minimi)ed su"'ect to some set o! constrains/ La,- patents- standards- or regulation Economics Resourse limitations Political and social presures Moralit# and ethical and pro!essional resposi"ilities Phisical principles Eval!ation of alternatives# numerous mathematical techni%ues are availa"le- including the simple@ method !or linear programming models- anal#tical and search techni%ues !or solving nonlinear programming models- partial de!!erential e%uations- matri@ alge"ravarious economic anal#sis- and deterministic or stochastic computer simulation/ $hoosing the best alternatives: must "e made in the conte@t o! the o"'ective and evaluative criteria previousl# esta"lished- "ut also must ta8e into account non7 %uanti!ia"le aspects o! the pro"lem such as aesthetic and political considerations/ "inal planning%design and impementation: is the culmination o! the s#stems approach/ System analysis S#stem anal#sis provides tools that- i! used e!!ectivel#- can greatl# assist in implementation o! the s#stems approach/ S#stem anal#sis cannot replace the s#stems approach- "ut it is o!ten an integral part o! it- especiall# i! mathematical optimi)ation is to "e underta8en/ Some o! the techni%ues that can "e used in s#stem anal#sis are as !ollo,s: Linear programming Economic anal#sis #namic programming ecision anal#sis Multio"'ective anal#sis Management techni%ues +et,or8 and linear graph anal#sis Applications e&ercises escri"e ,hat might "e involved in appl#ing each step o! the s#stem approach to each o! the pro'ects listed "ello,/ Approach the pro"lem !rom the perspective o! an engineer ,or8ing !or the primar# group responsi"le !or sponsoring the pro'ect A ne, interchange lin8ing an interstate high,a# ,ith a ne, sport comple@ A ,aste,ater treatment plant !or a cit# A high7rise apartment "uilding A rail rapid transit s#stem !or a metropolitan area

DE"I'ITI(' (" P)(*+EM Pro"lem de!inition is pro"a"l# the most di!!icult step in the application o! the s#stems approach/ It is also one o! the most di!!icult steps to descri"e/ Pro"lem de!inition is an investigative stage in ,hich the engineer has to decide i! a pro"lem does indeed e@ist/ Time- !inancial- la"or- and material constraints ma# have considera"le in!luence on all aspects o! pro"lem de!inition/ e!inition o! the pro"lem should also include the development o! preliminar# criteria ,hich ,ill "e used to 'udge the validit# o! a possi"le solution/ Pro"lem de!inition is a compromise "et,een including all !actors in!luencing the pro"lem and 8eeping the pro"lem small enough to "e solved ,ith availa"le time "udget and manpo,er resources/ ,ierarchy of systems S#stems can "e su"divided in to t,o t#pes : physical and organi-ational/ 1the transportation s#stem !or a metropolitan area is an e@ample o! a ph#sical s#stem- ph#sical su"s#stems ,ithin this s#stem could include the e@press,a# s#stem- the rapid transit s#stem- and the air transport s#stem6/ The airport authorit# 1management structure6 ,ould "e classi!ied as an organi)ational su"s#stem ,ithin the air transport s#stem/ Structure s#stem ma#"e devided into deterministic and stochastic. eterministic s#stems- ever# particular input ,ill produce a predicta"le response/ Stochastic s#stems one can not e@pect identical output ,hen the s#stem is su"'ected to identical input/ S!bsystem and component interactions To assist in de!ining the interaction among various levels o! the s#stem hierarch#s#stems anal#sts generall# thin8 in terms o! goals/ ob0ective- and criteria/ A goal is the speci!ic purpose or !unction o! a particular s#stem or su"s#stem/ (b0ectives re!lect the ,a#s in ,hich the goal or goals o! the s#stem can "e met/ $riteria indicate ho, the degree o! o"'ective attainment can "e measured/

Definition of hierarchy of systems 9#droelectric po,er pro'ect

Environmental s#stem

am

Reservoir

Po,er plant

9#drolog#

Aater Land %ualit# use

Recreation Spill,a#

am section

Transmission Tur"ines s#stem

$enerators

Support structures

Controls

$eotechnic

Se,age Thermal Reservoir treatment strati!ication elevation and control temperature s#stem control s#stem

(oundation Inter!ace 9#draulic

Crane (oundation Aalls (loors s#stem

iversion tunnels

Penstoc8s

Control structures

Btilities

rainage

Structure

evinition o! goals and criteria 9#droelectric po,er pro'ect $oal : Ma@imi)e return on investment
Reservoir am $oal : minimi)e construction costs Criteria : unit and total costs Spill,a# $oal : minimi)e comple@it# and si)e am section $oal : minimi)e volume o! dam $eotechnic $oal : choose "est site !or dam Po,er plant 9#drolog#

Criterion : minimum cost

(oundation $oal : minimi)e necessit# !or grouting Criterion : volume o! grout re%uired

Inter!ace $oal : minimi)e necessit# to remove over"urden Criterion : #d ; o! cut

9#draulics $oal : minimi)e tunneling length and di!!icult# Criterion : tunneling cost

E&ample A high,a# "ridge is to "e designed to cross a river/ This is a pro"lem that is generall# ,ell de!ined ,ith %uanti!ia"le varia"les and parameters/ Pro"lem de!inition ,ould proceed as !ollo,s/ The goals !or this "ridge s#stem ,ould "e the save and e!!icient movement o! the re%uired volume o! tra!!ic/ &"'ectives !or the "ridge s#stem can "e identi!ied !rom the goals o! the ne@t level o! su"s#stem/ These ,ould include: Pedestrian/ Sa!e passage o! pedestrians across the river Roadway/ Su!!icient carr#ing capacit# at minimum cost Approach/ Smooth transition !rom approach high,a#s to "ridge proper Support Structure/ Support "ridge live and dead load at minimum cost Control System/ Maintain sa!e conditions ,hile ma@imi)ing throughput The environment surrounding the pro"lem ,ould include the approach high,a#s- the river- topograph# surrounding the site- and an# aesthetic considerations/ Approach high,a#s ,ould dictate appro@imatel# ,here the endpoints o! the "ridge ,ould have to "e and ,ould provide the tra!!ic input to the "ride/ The river conditions ,ould control ho, long the "ridge must "e- and ,hat t#pe o! support might "e re%uired/ Surrounding topograph# ,ould have to"e considered ,hen deciding alignment o! approach interchanges and ramp and placement o! end a"utments o! the "ridge/ Definition of system hierarchy for bridge pro0ect
0ridge

Pedestrian

Road,a#

Approach

Support structure

Control s#stem

Control

Access

Sur!ace

Su"grade

Interchanges

Ramps

Road,a# supprort

0ridge support

Sign

Mar8ing

Signals

Load trans!er s#stem

Aesthetic considerations ma# dictate the !orm o! the "ridge structure i! it is to "e placed at a site that ,ill "e under pu"lic scrutin#/ In de!ining the pro"lem environment- some insight must "e gained into ho, the remainder o! the steps o! the s#stems approach might "e underta8en/ ata that should "e gathered and anal#sed can usuall# "e ascertained "# as8ing a series o! %uestions a"out the pro"lem/ Is the river naviga"leC 9o, man# tra!!ic lanes ,ill "e re%uired C Should pedestrian tra!!ic "e accomodatedC Aill intermediate support "e re%uired !or the "ride structureC

Ahat aesthetic conditions should "e consideredC Ahat are the !uture development plans !or the areaC Some o! the data that could "e gathered and anal#)ed to ans,er these %uestions ,ould "e 2/ Tra!!ic count : a6 volume 1vehicle6 "6 t#pe 1vehicle6 c6 Pedestrian :/ Structural material strength and cost data ;/ Aidth- dept- and other river data </ (oundation conditions in river and at "oth ends o! "ride site =/ Legislated re%uirement >/ Land availa"ilit# and cost ?/ Seismic data 4/ +avigation data : a6 t#pe and si)e o! "oat "6 volume o! tra!!ic c6 clearance re%uirement 3/ Aesthetic data : a6 site lines "6 surrounding land use 25/ (uture development plans or pro'ections Evaluative criteria !or the pro'ect ,ould "e the li!e c#cle costs o! the "ridge ,hich ,ould ta8e into account the initial cost o! the "ridge- estimated annual maintenance costs- and the e@pected li!e o! the "ridge/ Cost ,ould "e determine su"'ect to speci!ied levels o! per!ormance !or the various su"s#stems- ,hich ,ould each incorporate their individual o"'ectives/ Aesthetic considerations ma# place a supplementar# evaluative criterion o! the pro"lem/ Adaptiveness o! the "ridge to !uture development and change ,ould also have to "e considered/ The !ormulation o! alternatives ,ould include the di!!erent t#pes o! structure to "e considered- length o! span re%uired- and num"er and t#pe o! supports/ Alternate tra!!ic pro'ections might "e use to estimate the num"er o! lanes re%uired/ Constrains on the alternatives ,ould "e include shipping restrictions and an# high,a# regulation re%uirements/ Even in a pro'ect o! this si)e- it ,ould "e impractical to tr# to develop a constrained optimi)ation model o! the ,hole pro'ect/ Mathematical models could "e used e!!ectivel#- ho,ever- to anal#)e- and in some cases optimi)e- su"s#stem o! the "ridge/ &verall optimi)ation could "e le!t up to the 'udgement o! the planners and designers/ +ot all alternatives could "e considered- "ut e@perience ,ill dictate ,hich alternatives ,ould pro"a"l# have a changce o! "eing !easi"le/ Economic anal#sis o! the overall pro'ect and design anal#sis o! the various components ,ill assist in the evaluation o! the alternatives and the choice o! the "est alternatives/ A!ter a decision has "een made as to the pre!ered alternative- !inal design ,ould commence/ This ,ould include detailed speci!ication o! all structural and phisical components o! the s#stem and development o! !a"rication and construction plans/ Implementation ,ould include management o! the construction phase o! the pro'ect using management aids such as PE)T 1Program Eval!ation and )efiew Techni1!e6 and $PM 1$ritical Path Method6- and identi!ication and interpretation o! needs !or changes in the design as the pro'ect proceeds to,ard completion/ Consideration o! these su"se%uent steps ,ill help in identi!#ing other s#stems and components that should "e included in the de!inition o! the pro"lem environment/ This ,ill reduce the need !or !eed"ac8 during su"se%uent steps- "ut not completel# eliminate it/ Engineer*planners must remain continuall# alert !or ne, in!ormation that ma# "ecome availa"le and ma# indicate the need !or !eed"ac8 to a previous step in the process/

Applications e&ercises Per!orm each o! the activities listed at the end o! this pro"lem !or each o! the !ollo,ing situations: a/ You are an engineer overseeing the stud# o! the entire high,a# s#stem !or a large metropolitas area "/ You are responsi"le !or developing a plan !or a ne, commercial airport that ma# "e "uild in #our region c/ Your client ,ants to "uild a high rise "uilding 1,ith "oth o!!ice and apartment space6 on the site o! an e@isting theater d/ You are conducting a stud# o! ,ater diversion !rom one ,atershed to another !or the purpose o! ,ater suppl# The activities !or this pro"lem are: 2/ evelop a s#stems hierarch# !or each o! the given situations/ Include several levels o! su"s#stems and components/ Put #oursel! in the place o! the engineer ,ho ,ill "e responsi"le !or the anal#sis and decision ma8ing :/ escri"e ,hat ,hould "e re%uired to de!ine the pro"lem !or each situation given/ Include ,hat ,ould "e necessar# to de!ine the pro"lem environment and possi"le goals- o"'ectives- and criteria !or the s#stems #ou have de!ine/ Indicate ,hat interaction ,ill pro"a"l# occur among su"s#stems and components/ ;/ escri"e ,hat t#pe o! data ,ould have to "e gathered throughout application o! the s#stem approach to each situation/ Indicate ho, di!!icult it ma# "e to ac%uire the necessar# data in each case- and ,h# it is necessar# to gather the particular data </ evelop possi"le evaluative criteria !or the situation descri"ed/ escri"e ho, #our evaluative criteria might change depending on #our relationship to the pro"lem/ 9o, might #our relationship to the pro"lem a!!ect #our ,hole approach to the pro"lem

Ac1!isition and Analysis of Data Attention to detail and good engineering 'udgement are essential ingredients in an# success!ul data ac%uisition program/ Care!ull# ac%uired data ma# "e anal#)ed to accomplish: 2/ Model cali"ration and veri!ication :/ Esta"lishment o! trends ;/ Calculating "asic statistics !or camparison 1mean- mode- standard deviationetc6 </ Estimation o! model constants 1regression6 =/ Statistical correlation 1regression and anal#sis o! variance6 >/ (re%uenc# anal#sis Methods of Data athering

The e@ample sho,s that ,hat t#pes o! methods might "e used to gather data !or a storm7 ,ater characteri)ation stud#/ As part o! a se,er upgrading and redesign o! pro'ect- it is necessar# to characteri)e the %uantit# and %ualit# o! storm,ater to assist in determining i! storm,ater treatment might "e re%uired/ The !ollo,ing outline indicates ,hat methods o! data gathering might "e utili)ed to characteri)e the %uantit# and %ualit# o! storm,ater/ +iterat!re )eview Previous studies o! same s#stem Previous studies o! similar s#stems Plans o! se,er s#stem Topographic and other maps Personal Interviews Municipal engineer Pu"lic ,or8s supervisor Residents along se,er right7o!7,a#- especiall# ,here pro"lems are suspected Emplo#ees ,ho have ,or8ed on the se,er Site reconnaisance Condition and securit# o! access points Interior condition o! se,ers Conditions o! out!all Data ac1!isition program (lo,rate T#pe o! primar# device Method o! secondar# data ac%uisition Dualit# sampling

Method o! sampling T#pe o! sample to "e ta8en iscrete Simple composite Methods o! sample anal#sis 2!ality $ontrol in Data Ac1!isition Although errors ,ill e@ist in an# measurement program- %ualit# control ,ill ensure that these errors are minimi)ed and are largel# o! the t#pe that can "e compensated !or/ Error is the di!!erence "et,een the measured value o! some %uantit# and the true or e@act value/ The amount o! error introduced depends on "oth the sensitivit# and accurac# o! the measuring device and the a"ilit# and s8ill o! the o"server/ Accurac# re!ers to the agreement "et,een the measurement and the true value o! the %uantit# "eing measured/ Accurac# is related to the statistical measures o! central tendenc# or location 1mean- median and mode6/ Analysis Measures o! Central Tendenc# Mean: the mean is the arithmetic average o! data/ Several rain gages are located in a large basin, but each covers a different proportion of the overall basin. It is desirable to calculate the weighted estimate of the mean rainfall for this basin, using the area of coverage as the weighting factor for each rain gage Median: the median is the middle value o! a set data values arranged in order o! magnitude Mode: the mode is the value in a set o! data ,hich is repeated the most times Calculate the: a! mean, b! median, and c! mode of the following set of traffic counts. All data values are in terms of hundreds of vehicles per hour Measures o! Earia"ilit# Eariance and Standard eviation/ The most commonl# used measures o! varia"ilit#- the variance and standard deviation- provide ,a#s o! %uanti!#ing the scatter o! data set ,ith respect to its mean value Coe!!icient o! variation/ The coe!!icient o! variation is a measure o! the relative dispersion o! data- ,hereas- the standard deviation is a measure o! the a"solute dispersion egrees o! !reedom/ The degrees o! !reedom 1 S6 is the num"er o! independent data that are availa"le !or estimating a particular statistical parameter

9#pothesis Testing/ 9#pothesis testing involves setting up some h#pothesis and then using statistical procedures either to re'ect or accept that h#pothesis ,ith some level o! certainl#/ 9#pothesis is !ormulated: 9o : F2 G F: The s#m"ol 9o is re!ered to as the null h#pothesis "ecause it is assume that there is no di!!erence "et,een the parameters "eing elavuated/

"wo batches of steel have mean values of modulus of elasticity of #$ % &$' psi and #& % &$' psi for sample si(e of ) and ', respectively. If the calculated t is *.)+, can the hypothesis ,o: -& . -* be re/ected, and if so, with what level of confidence0 t calculated . *.)+ 12 . n& 3 n* 4 * . &* Chec5 t6,12 from the table t$.&,&* . &.7)* t$.$+,&* . *.&78 t$.$*,&* . *.')& t$.$&,&* . #.$++ t$.$$&,&* . 9.#&) t calculated lies between t$.$*,&* and t$.$&,&* there for, the hypothesis, ,o: -& . -*, can be re/ected at the $.$* significance level but not at $.$& significance level. In other word, we can infer that the two means are different with less than a *: chance being in error. ;e are 8): sure that the two means are different, but not 88: sure. T,o other samples are dra,n !rom the same t,o "atches o! steel/ The various values o! modulus o! elasticit# 1E6 are given in the ta"le "elo, Measurement num"er 0atch 2 E125>psi6 0atch : E125>psi6 2 ;5 :3 : ;2 ;; ; :3 ;; < :4 ;5 = ;2 ;5 > ;2 ;2 Ahat in!erence can "e dra,n a"out the e%ualit# o! strength "et,een these t,o "atches o! steelC

)egression and correlation (or linear regression ,ith one independent varia"le- the regression model "ecomes YGaHI" !or a- ,e get >%ample: "he following dissolved o%ygen 1?!, temperature, and flow rate data are given for a station on the Connecticut River. Since dissolved o%ygen is a function of temperature in pure waters, it is believed that a model of the form 1? . a "! 3 b might be useful in predicting what the dissolved o%ygen level in the river would be for various water tempetarures. "he flow rate data will not be used at this time, but they will be used in a later section "i = ;;=-; + G :; 1? G ::>/=5*:; G 3/4<4 " G 2</=4 : 1?i"i "i = G :3?=/=? >>5?-23 Then a G 7 5/235 " G 1? 7 a " G 3/4<4 I 5/2312</=46 G 2:/>: & G 2:/>: J 5/231Ti6 Meas!res of oodness of "it for )egression E1!ations aG

<i=i = <i <i

i =2 i =2 n :

< <i
i =2

i =2 n

" G Y J aH

At this point- it is important to "e a"le to estimate ho, ,ell the regression line !its the measure data point/ In!erences can then "e made as to ho, accurate predicted values ma# "e/ These ,ill !orm con!idence "ounds on the results/ To "egin- de!ine the sum o! s%uares o! deviation o! the measure Y values- Yi- !rom the average value o! Y- Y- as
=
:

1=i = 6
i =2 n i =2

and

<

= 1 <i < 6 :

<= =

1 <i < 61=i = 6

Coe!!icient o! determination G r G

a <=

a : < :

=
: :

Correlation co!!icient G r G

a : < : Ga = :

< =

Ahen calculating either r or r:- it is help !ull to remem"er that

 <= = 1 <i < 61=i = 6 G <i=i n <=

<
:

n i

= <i : n <
i

i n

and

= i =i : n=
n

>%ample: Calculate the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination for the regression developed
":

G 2?23/2 R G 7 5/45

1? :
and
:

G 34/2<

and

"i1?i G :3?=/=?
i

R G 5/>;

The con!idence interval is given "# the estimated value I*7 ts Ahere t G value setected !rom studentKs LtM distri"ution !or proper degrees o! !reedom 1n7:6 and desired pro"a"ilit# level s G estimated standard deviation !or the parameter o! varia"le (or the slope o! the regression e%uation- the "est estimate o! the variance is given "# s:1a6 G
s : 1= 6 =: : since s 1Y6 G G n : < :

=
:

a : < : n :
a: 1 n :6

then s:1a6 G

= *1n :6 <
: :

= 1 n :6 <

The estimated variance !or an# predicted value- Yi- is given "# the e%uation S:1Yi6 G s:1Y6 2 +
2 1 < <i 6 : + n < :

2or the water @uality problem described aboved, what is the 8+: convidence interval for the slope a!0 t5/5=-:2 G :/545 s 1a6 G
:

1? *1n :6 G "
: :

1? 1 n :6"
:

a: G ;/2>2 @ 257: 1 n :6

con!idence interval G 75/235 I*7 :/541;/2>2@257:6 G 75/235 I*75/5>> it can "e said that a lies "et,een 7/2:< and 75/:=> Standard error o! estimate

S #-@ G

1=i =i6
i

n :

APP+I$ATI('S $alibration%3erification of Model The acc!racy o! an# model is dependent on the correctness o! the model !ormulation- on the %ualit# o! the input data used to drive the model- and on the a"ilit# to determine values !or the parameters o! the model accuratel#/ 9igh7%ualit# !ield and*or la"orator# data can "e used in cali"ration and veri!ication to ad'ust model parameters to achieve as accurate as possi"le results and to evaluate the precision 1reproduci"ilit# o! results6 o! the model/ $alibration is the process o! minimi)ing the error "et,een model output and actual measured s#stem output !or the same measured s#stem input/ This ma# involve regression anal#sis to estimate empirical parameters !or a deterministic or empirical model or successive ad'ustment o! parameters o! a deterministic or stocastic model to ta8e the model output agree ,ith the measured s#stem output ,ithin some error tolerance/ Sensitivity analysis o! the model ,ill help to identi!# parameters that- ,hen changed,ill have little e!!ect on the model output/ 3erification is the process o! testing ho, ,ell the model output compares ,ith realit# The !ollo,ing discussion o! a metodolog# !or cali"rating storm,ater models ,ill serve to illustrade the process o! cali"ration and veri!ication as applied to an actual situation/ Concepts and procedures that are developed in this application are e%uall# applica"le to other modelling situations/

(lo,chart SAMM cali"ration program

Input !rom SAMM %uantit# portion Calculate !lo, de!!erences Calculate s%uared de!!erence

Measure data input Calculate !lo, rate

Is %uantit# compared

Is %ualit# compared Calculate measured mass emission rates Calculate predicted mass emission rates !rom SAMM

Print %uantit# data

stop

Calculate pollutan di!!erences Calculate s%uare di!!erences

stop

Print %uantit# and %ualit# data

(PTIMI4ATI(' M(DE+S &ptimi)ation models are prescriptive models- in that the# suggest the "est methods o! s#stem operation- ,hich is a measure o! the degree o! attainment o! s#stem o"'ectives/ Design constraints- are speci!ied upper or lo,er "ounds on a design varia"le or relationship ,hich includes several interdependent design varia"les/ E@amples are minimum ,idth o! road,a#- ma@imum height o! a "uilding- or minimum level o! ,aste removal !rom se,age/ *ehavioral constraints- are derived !rom the "ehavioral re%uirements o! the s#stem/ E@amples are limits on ma@imum stresses in !le@ural mem"ers- ma@imum displacement o! truss 'oints- and ma@imum a@ial compressive load to prevent "uc8ling in columns/ Consider the optimum placement o! supports !or a simpl# supported !le@ural mem"er/ (or !le@ural mem"erNma@ G
Ac I

,here

M G "ending moment in the "eam c G ma@imum distance !rom neutral a@is I G moment o! inertia o! the cross section a"out its centroidal a@is Nma@ G ma@imum "ending stress !or an# particural cross section

(or a given cross section- the ma@imum "ending stress ,ill occure ,hen the "ending moment is a ma@imum- either positive or negative/ In design- Nma@ is replace "# Nallo, Nallo, O
Ac I

or

allow

I c

the %uantit# I*c is a propert# o! the cross section o! the mem"er- and is usuall# called Sthe section modulus/ The usual procedure !or choosing a "eam is as !ollo,s: 2/ Compute and graph moment !unction :/ (ind the ma@imum moment- either positive or negative ;/ Bsing the allo,a"le stress 1:5-555 psi !or A ;> steel6- calculate the re%uired section modulus Sreg G allow </ Choose the most economical 1least ,eight per !oot6 "eam !rom the steel ta"les that has S O Sreg a"out the appropriate centroidal a@is- and meet an# other dimentional restrictions/ Since the Nallo, is a material propert# and is constant in this anal#sis- the section modulus 1,hich governs the si)e o! "eam re%uired6 is directl# proportional to the ma@imum "ending moment applied to the "eam/ E$('(MI$ "EASI*I+ITY (" P)(5E$T
A

Ahen investigating the economic !easi"ilit# o! pro'ect- it is necessar# to determine i! the total "ene!it and return on invesment are greater than the cost/ In economic term- a determination has to "e made as to ,hether or not an alternative investment ,ould produce a greater return/ The methods !or anal#sis o! economic !easi"ilit# include: 2/ +et Present Aorth :/ Bni!orm Annual +et Return ;/ Rate &! Return </ 0ene!it*Cost Ratio A !ree,a# is presentl# "eing "uilt/ Along this !ree,a#- there is an interchange that ,ill connect ,ith a rapid transit station that is to "e "uilt = #r in the !uture/ Three alternatives have "een developed/ Alternative 6 0uild the interchange and station approach roads along ,ith the !ree,a#!or a capital cost o! P ;-555-555- and a #earl# maintenance cost o! P :5-555 Alternative 7 0uild the interchange ,ith the !ree,a#- "ut ,ait = #r to "uild the approach roads/ 0uilding the interchange no, ,ill cost P :-555-555- and ,ill have an annual maintenance cost o! P 2=-555/ 0uilding the approach roads in = #r is estimated to cost P :-555-555 at that time/ Alternative 8 Aait = #r to "uild "oth the interchange and the approach roads/ The estimated cost o! "oth in = #r is P =-555-555 I! it is assumed that cost in #ears su"se%uent to pro'ect completion 1 = #r in the !uture6 are appro@imatel# e%ual !or each o! the three alternatives- and that all alternatives have appro@imatel# the same use!ul li!e- !ind the least costl# o! these alternatives !or prevailing interest rates o! 4 and 2:Q/ Ahile present ,orth anal#sis ,ill "e used in these calculations- the student should veri!# that e%uivalent uni!orm annual costs ,ill lead to the same conclutions/ At a minimum attractive rate o! return o! 4Q- the !ollo,ing calculations can "e made: Alternative 6 Capital cost Annual maintenance cost o! P:5-555 !or = #r :5-5551BSPA(- 5/54- =6 G :5-555 1;-33;6 Total Alternative 7 Capital cost Annual maintenance cost o! P2=-555 !or = #r G 2=-555 1;-33;6 Additional capital e@penditure in = #r :-555-555 1PA(- 5-54- =6 G :-555-555 15->45>6 Total Alternative 8 P ;-555-555 P ?3-4>5 P ;-5?3-4>5 P :-555-555 P =3-43= P 2-;>2-:55 P ;-<:2-53=

Capital cost Annual maintenance cost Capital e@penditure in = #r G =-555-555 15->45>6 Total

P 5 P 5 P ;-<5;-555 P ;-<5;-555

There!ore- at an 4Q attractive rate o! return- alternative 2 is the most economical/ 9o,ever- at an attractive rate o! return o! 2:Q- alternative ; "ecomes the most advantageous- as is sho,n "# the !ollo,ing computations Alternative 6 Capital cost Annual maintenance cost :5-555 1BSPA(- 5/2:- =6 G :5-555 1;/>5=6 Total Alternative 7 Capital cost Annual maintenance cost G 2=-555 1;->5=6 Additional capital e@penditure in = #r :-555-5551PA(- 5/2:- =6 G :-555-555 15/=>?<6 Total Alternative 8 Capital e@penditure in = #r G =-555-555 15/=>?<6 Total P ;-555-555 P ?:-255 P ;-5?:-255 P :-555-555 P =<-5?= P 2-2;<-455 P ;-244-4?= P :-4;?-555 P :-4;?-555

(PTIMI4ATI(' TE$,'I29ES

&ptimi)ation is the process o! !inding the "est solution to a pro"lem ,ithin an esta"lished set o! constraint/ It ,ill generall# involve minimi)ation o! cost or material- or ma@imi)ation o! gain/ 9o,ever- optimi)ation is onl# possi"le i! there is a range o! choices availa"le/ The success o! optimi)ation depends primaril# on the a"ilit# o! the engineer to e!!ectivel# and realisticall# de!ine the pro"lem- and to develop a reasona"le model o! the pro"lem s#stem/ 1these processes have "een descri"e "e!ore6 (ptimi-ation by methods of calc!l!s Some pro"lems that can "e modeled "# continuous !unctions can "e optimi)ed through the methods o! calculus E@ample Minimi)ed the cost o! a rectangular "o@ to hold ; #d; o! sand- ,ith the constraint that the ,idth o! the "ottom o! the "o@ must "e e%ual to 4 !t Addtional In!ormation 2/ There is no top o! the "o@ :/ Bnit cost o! sides and !ront end G P R*!t: ;/ Bnit cost o! second end G P 2/= R*!t: </ Bnit cost o! "ottom G P :R*!t: H2 G length o! "o@ H: G height o! "o@

H: 4K H2