CE 397 Statistics in Water Resources Exercise 8

Flood Frequency Analysis
By: Samuel Sandoval, Patrick Se kora, !ames Se""i, and #avid $aidment Center %or Researc& in Water Resources 'niversity o% (exas at )ustin )"ril *++9 Contents
Contents,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, .ntroduction,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, /oals o% t&is Exercise,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Com"uter and #ata Re0uirements,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,* Part -: 'sin1 2EC3SSP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,* Part *: Extreme 4alue #istri5ution (y"e .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-* Part 3 6 Extreme 7lo8s %or #i%%erent 7lo8 Re1imes,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,-7 (o Be (urned .n:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -9

Introduction
Every stream or river &as instances o% extremely au1mented %lo8, (&ere%ore, 8&en desi1nin1 en1ineered &ydrolo1ic systems it is im"erative t&at Water Resources en1ineers suc& as ourselves account %or t&e varia5ility in&erent to t&e 8ater 5ody, En1ineers can attem"t to understand t&e tem"erament o% t&ese %lo8s 5y a""lyin1 statistics to t&e recorded %lo8s to determine &ydrolo1ic extremes, (&ese values, suc& as t&e -++3year %lood, assist a desi1ner in enumeratin1 t&e %lo8 "arameters around 8&ic& a dam or levee must 5e 5uilt in order to minimi9e risk,

Goals of this Exercise
(&e "rimary 1oal o% t&is exercise is to use various statistical tools to determine t&e &ydrolo1ic extremes %or 1iven 8ater 5odies, 'sin1 %lo8 values %rom t&e 'S/S data5ase, values %or 1iven -

extremes can 5e calculated usin1 t&e com"uter "ro1ram 2EC3SSP, (&e results %rom t&is "ro1ram can t&en 5e com"ared to calculated values derived %rom t&e Bulletin -7B "rocedure o% im"lementin1 t&e :o1 Pearson (y"e ... distri5ution &tt":;;8ater,us1s,1ov;os8;5ulletin-75;dl<%lo8,"d% =*8$B>, (&e Pearson (y"e ... distri5ution is one o% seven ty"es o% distri5utions devised 5y ?arl Pearson, a Britis& statistician, 5e1innin1 in -89@, Pearson #istri5utions #urin1 t&e -97+As, 'S &ydrolo1ists %lood "eaks to c&oose a distri5ution to %it to t&em, and c&ose t&e Pearson (y"e ... distri5ution a""lied to t&e :o1s o% t&e %lo8s to 5ase -+, (&ey devised a %ittin1 "rocedure 8&ic& is summari9ed in BBulletin -7BC t&at 8as t&en and is no8 t&e standard distri5ution in t&e 'nited States %or %lood %re0uency analysis, 7inally, t&ese met&ods 8ill 5e a""lied to com"are and contrast t&ree o% t&e nationAs "rimary %lo8 re1imes,

Computer and Data Requirements
(o "er%orm t&is exercise, you 8ill need a com"uter 8it& t&e Windo8s o"eratin1 system, $icroso%t Excel, and access to t&e internet, We 8ill 5e usin1 2EC3SSP -,+, a statistical so%t8are "acka1e develo"ed 5y t&e )rmy Cor"s o% En1ineers, (&e "ro1ram can 5e do8nloaded %rom t&eir 8e5site: &tt":;;888,&ec,usace,army,mil;so%t8are;&ec3 ss";do8nloads,&tml, Be sure to do8nload t&e ne8est version, 4ersion -,+ =not t&e arc&ived 5eta versionD>, (&is "ro1ram is %ree and can 5e do8nloaded onto a "ersonal com"uter, .t is installed in t&e com"uters in t&e :RC in Room EC! 3,3+-, .t may take a5out E@ seconds to load u" on its %irst use, 5ut starts u" %aster a%ter t&at, (&e data %iles needed %or t&is exercise are availa5le at: &tt":;;888,ce,utexas,edu;"ro%;maidment;StatWR*++9;Ex8;Ex8,9i"

Part 1: Using HEC !!P
(&e enc&antment o% a &istoric 1au1in1 station is undenia5le, (&ere%ore, 8e 8ill 5e returnin1 to an old %riend %rom t&e %irst exercise: 'S/S station +8-@8+++ on t&e Colorado River in )ustin, .n t&is "art o% t&e exercise, 8e 8ill use t&e 2EC3SSP "ro1ram you &ave do8nloaded to analy9e t&e &ydrolo1ic extremes o% t&e Colorado River &ere in )ustin, (&e statistical study "er%ormed 5y 2EC3SSP is 5ased u"on Bulletin -7B B/uidelines %or #eterminin1 7lood 7lo8 7re0uency,C (&is analysis is 5ased u"on %lo8 data, ot&er &ydrolo1ic data, and a volume3duration %re0uency analysis on &i1& and lo8 %lo8s, (&is data is t&en a""lied to a :o13Pearson (y"e ... distri5ution, (o 5e1in, o"en u" HEC-SSP, 'nder t&e File ta5, select New Study in order to create t&e tem"late used in t&is investi1ation,

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Fnce t&ese &ave 5een esta5lis&ed. it is time to select data %or station 08158000. click OK. 3 ./ive your study a descri"tive name. Wit& t&e ne8 study success%ully created. Ex8 and "lace it in a directory 8&ere you 8ill 5e a5le to %ind it. (&is s&ould create a matrix 8it& a list o% %olders in a menu on t&e le%t o% t&e screen. 'nder t&e Data menu select New. (&is is most easily done 5y im"ortin1 t&e data directly t&rou1& t&e internet into t&e 2EC3SSP "ro1ram.

so 5e sure t&is data ty"e is selected. Gou can c&oose Colorado &i'er %or Basin and (u#ti$) Tx %or :ocation. We 8ill 5e usin1 t&e )nnual Peak %lo8 data. (&is 8ill 5rin1 u" a menu 8&ic& 8ill allo8 you to select a state. )s you can see. Select t&e dataset and click %*+ort Study DSS File %or t&e Colorado River to continue. C&oose Texa# and click BF?. 5ut t&e desired station can 5e 0uickly %ound 5y ty"in1 t&e station num5er into t&e S!S Statio$ %D# dro"5ox: 08158000. E . (&en click !et S!S Statio$ %D#.C (&is 8ill 5rin1 u" a lar1e num5er o% stations. 'nder t&e Data Source Tab make sure S!S "eb#ite is selected %or t&e source o% your data.(&is o"ens a menu 8&ic& allo8s you to select t&e data you desire. a dataset &as a""eared in t&e menu on t&e le%t o% t&e screen.

@ .

.% you ri1&t click on t&e +8-@8+++. 2o8 muc& devastation in our do8nto8n area &as t&us 5een avoidedDD H . and select Plot) a &ydro1ra"& a""ears: )nd you can see &o8 "ronounced is t&e e%%ect o% t&e dams 5uilt durin1 t&e -93+As on reduction in %lood "eaks in )ustin.

7 . 5ut rat&er a &ydrolo1ic year =Fcto5er . al8ays t&ere 5ut "er&a"s little reco1ni9ed. ri1&t click t&e . our city 8ould not &ave t&e vi5rant environment surroundin1 our Colorado River t&rou1& do8nto8n )ustin. :ike8ise. (o "roceed in t&e analysis. a ta5le 8it& t&e dates and %lo8 values is created.Wit&out t&is %lood "rotection. i% you &it ri1&t click on +8-@8+++ and select Tabulate. %older on t&e menu on t&e le%t side o% t&e screen and select Ie8. .ulleti$ 1-. We are on our 8ay to %indin1 &ydrolo1ic extremesD Wit& data success%ully im"orted into t&e 2EC3SSP "ro1ram.t&rou1& Se"tem5er 3+>. it is ready to 5e analy9ed.t s&ould 5e noted t&at eac& year is not a calendar.

(&is 8ill 5rin1 u" t&e Bulletin -7B Editor. Be1in 5y 1ivin1 your analysis a name and selectin1 t&e 7lo8 #ata Set you ust created %rom t&e Flow Data Set Dro+box. "eibull Plotti$/ Po#itio$.n t&e 5ottom ri1&t o% t&e selection menu. WeAll ust 8ork 8it& t&e data a%ter -9E+.ew.Fct -9E+ and an e$d date o% 3+ Se"tem5er *++8 2it Co*+ute to determine t&e %lood %re0uency curve. . (&en &it Plot Cur'e to see t&e %lood %re0uency curve. 8 . We 8ill 5e usin1 t&e Statio$ S. and De0ault con%idence limits. use t&e Calendar to select a #tart date o% . so kee" all o% t&e selections on t&eir de%ault values.

t&e exceedance "ro5a5ility o% t&e &i1&est o5served %lo8 o% E7.. Iever t&e less.% you &it 4ie8 Re"ort. distri5ution.. . 7rom t&e %i1ures 5elo8 t&is.E@L.t looks like t&e data &ave a "attern t&at isnAt really %itted t&at 8ell 5y t&e :o1 Pearson (y"e . m is t&e rank =m J. youAll see a re"ort a5out t&e %lood %re0uency analysis. treatment o% outliers and so on. rankin1 o% t&e values. or Extreme 4alue (y"e . (&us.H9 J +.H++ c%s is " J -. lets continue on.+-E@ J -. ) "art o% t&at re"ort is re"roduced 5elo8. to make t&is assessment. 8it& t&e associated Wei5ull Plottin1 "osition =" J m. Gou donAt even really need a "ro5a5ility distri5ution model like :o1 Pearson .t s&o8s t&e ranked %lo8s %rom t&e lar1est on do8n8ards.t is "ossi5le to 1et a reasona5le idea o% t&e ma1nitude o% a -+ year %lood 8it& H8 years o% data since a""roximately H or 7 %loods exceedin1 t&at ma1nitude s&ould &ave occurred durin1 t&at "eriod.=nK-> 8&ere " is t&e exceedance "ro5a5ility. you can see t&at a disc&ar1e o% 37.8++ c%s is a""roximately a -+ year %lood since " J -...( and " J -+.is &i1&est %lo8> and n J H8 J t&e num5er o% ranked %lo8s>.. .-EL %or t&is disc&ar1e. 9 . .

+@ and +.(o see t&e results o% t&e Bulletin -7B analysis. (&e ta5ular results also make note o% t&e "resence o% any &i1& or lo8 outliers. . etc. )lso. (&is value can 5e com"ared to t&e ex"ected %lo8 %rom t&e :o13Pearson "ro5a5ility %unction curve. click on t&e Tabular &e#ult#.n t&is case. standard deviation. t&ere are none. a @+L 8it& a * year event.9@> can also 5e seen. (&e u""er and lo8er "ercent con%idence intervals =+. and ske8 are ta5ulated. )s can 5e seen. -+ . ) -L exceedance corres"onds 8it& a -++3year event. t&e statistical "arameters suc& as t&e mean. t&e com"uted %lo8s associated 8it& eac& "ercent exceedance are "rovided. (&is s&ould yield an identical menu to t&e one s&o8n 5elo8.

To be turned in: Compare the magnitude of the 10 year and 100 year floods for the data from 1941 onwards. By how much does the flood magnitude increase when you multiply its return period by a factor of ten? Recompute the flood fre uency cur!e for the period from 1900 to 1940 and from 1900 to "00#. Compare the three estimates of the 100 year flood. By how much did the building of the dams on the Colorado Ri!er decrease flood magnitudes? -- .

(&e "arameters o% t&e (y"e . Select t&e %lo8 data and t&e out"ut to 5e located in cell 7*.Part ": Extreme #alue Distri$ution %&pe I Io8. letAs estimate t&e maximum annual %lo8 %or di%%erent return "eriods usin1 t&e (y"e . distri5ution O and u. Extreme 4alue #istri5ution =also kno8n as t&e /um5el #istri5ution>. 'sin1 E0. (&is distri5ution &as a cumulative distri5ution %unction: M-N W&ere $ is t&e return "eriod. :etAs use t&ese results to calculate t&e "arameters o% t&e (y"e . Io8. and save it in a ne8 %older as Ty+e%Sol$2xl#b. E0uation .is used %or evaluatin1 t&e cumulative "ro5a5ility 1iven a %lo8. %unction O and u are ex"ressed 5y t&e %ollo8in1 e0uations: M*N M3N W&ere and are t&e standard deviation and mean o% t&e maximum annual %lo8 data set. and click on Su**ary Stati#tic#. -* . EE8-E c%s and t&e standard deviation 79*97 c%s &ave 5een calculated %or us. =*>. Iotice t&at t&e mean. :etAs calculate t&e descri"tive statistics %or t&e com"lete "eriod usin1 t&e #ata )nalysis tool. letAs o"en t&e %ile Ty+e1%2xl#b %or t&e Colorado River maximum annual %lo8s.

(&e %ollo8in1 result means t&at t&ere is a @9.+++ c%s in any year = P=SmaxTJ@++++>J+.n order to o5tain t&e return "eriod o% an annual maximum %lo8 o% @+.@ years.3L c&ance t&at t&e maximum %lo8 is &i1&er t&an @+. t&e %ollo8in1 e0uation can 5e used: (&us. -3 .+++ c%s in t&e 1a1e station +8-38+++ Colorado River usin1 a (y"e .+++ c%s.7L c&ance t&at t&e annual maximum %lo8 is less t&an @+.R/R-8>>C.@77*PH-8*8 J 9-*7 )nd store t&e result in cell /-9 Iext. (o o5tain t&e cumulative "ro5a5ility %unction use t&e %ollo8in1 e0uation and ty"e in cell /** t&e %ollo8in1 ex"ression: BJEQP=3-PEQP=3-P=7**3R/R-9>.+++ c%s = P=SmaxU@++++>J+. lets use E0.)nd store t&e result in cell /-8 Similarly. %or t&e "arameter u.@97>. letAs evaluate t&e "ro5a5ility t&at t&e annual maximum %lo8 is 1reater t&an @+. t&e return "eriod %or a @+.-+3>. . distri5ution is *. =3>: J EE8-E 3 +.+++ c%s. or t&at t&ere is ust E+.

distri5ution %or a return "eriod o% -++ years. -E . (y"e in cell 2*@ t&e %ollo8in1 command BJR/R-93R/R-8P:I=:I=-./*@>>C in order to calculate t&e -++3year %lood %lo8.Io8. letAs o5tain t&e ex"ected %lo8 accordin1 to a ty"e .

lets t&ink a5out t&is a 5itD ) %lo8 o% @+. Io8.+++ c%s "assin1 t&rou1& t&e center o% )ustin 8ill %lood lots o% ex"ensive &otels and 5uildin1s located alon1side t&e Colorado River.(&e -++3year %lood value is *93. :ets "lot t&e data: -@ .@E7 c%s. so t&ere is somet&in1 a 5it odd &ere. and t&at doesnAt &a""en every year.

. t&at annual maxium %lo8s do8nstream &ave 5een si1ni%icantly diminis&ed.t is evident t&at since t&e -9E+As 8&en t&e lar1e lakes (ravis and Buc&anan 8ere 5uilt u"stream on t&e Colorado River. :ets re"eat t&e com"utation o% t&e "arameters %or t&e annual maximum %lo8s on t&e Colorado River. P&e8D (&in1s are a lot 5etter since t&e dams 8ere 5uiltD To be turned in: a% & graph of the annual ma'imum flows for the Colorado Ri!er at &ustin for the period of record. C&oose t&e (0ter1340 ta5 in t&e Ty+e1%Sol$2xl#b s"reads&eet and re"eat t&e a5ove exercise =you can ust co"y t&e %ormulas %rom one s"reads&eet to t&e next. b% (repare a table that shows for the Colorado Ri!er at &ustin the return period )years% of an annual ma'imum flow of *0+000 cfs+ and the magnitude in cfs of the 100 year flood+ -H .

c% Compare the 100 year flood computed computed since 1940 by the . • • • Rio Puerco at Bernardo.'treme -alue $ype . I$ M'S/S /a1e +83@3+++N Patuxent River at Bo8ie. (&e collected data is located in Flow &e/i*e Data2xl#x. E"&emeral streams are "rone to %las& %loods. 5ut t&ese %lo8s are dominated 5y sno8melt 8ater in t&e s"rin1 and early summer.n8is. $# M'S/S /a1e +-@9EEE+N Clark 7ork at $issoula. We 8ill 5e lookin1 at one river o% eac& %lo8 re1ime %or t&is "art o% t&e exercise.'treme -alue $ype .inventory>. also kno8n as intermittent. and are common t&rou1& t&e Sout&8est 'S. $( M'S/S /a1e -*3E+@++N (&e daily disc&ar1e data =%rom *++7> %or eac& o% t&e a5ove rivers &as 5een "rovided. E"&emeral. courtesy o% t&e 'S/S 8e5site =&tt":.us1s.1ov.as computed by the .s the difference in the estimates by the two methods significant when compared to the confidence range on the Bulletin 10B estimate of the 100 year flow? Part ' ( Extreme )lo*s for Different )lo* Regimes 7or t&is "art 8e 8ill use 2EC3SSP to com"are and contrast t&ree ty"es o% stream re1imes common in t&e 'nited States: "erennial. Perennial streams &ave continuous %lo8 year3round. and sno83%ed. streams ty"ically &ave no %lo8 exce"t %or "eriods immediately %ollo8in1 "reci"itation. method with that deri!ed from the Bulletin 10B method for the same period of record. . distribution method. Sno83%ed streams are like "erennial streams in t&at t&ey su""ort year3round %lo8s. and are common on t&e East Coast o% t&e 'nited States. -7 . /how these !alues for the full period of record from 1900 and for the flood record since 1940..8aterdata. e"&emeral. Sno83%ed streams are common in t&e mountainous re1ions o% t&e Iort&8est 'S. and matc& eac& river to t&e %lo8 re1imes descri5ed a5ove. :ets take a look at a &ydro1ra"& %or eac& river.

-8 .

*.o% t&is exercise. By how much does the flood magnitude increase when you multiply its return period by a factor of ten? Recompute the flood fre uency cur!e for the period from 1900 to 1940 and from 1900 to "00#. #o8nload t&e )nnual Peak 7lo8 data %or eac& o% t&ese rivers. Com"are t&e -+3year and -++3year %lood %lo8s %or eac& river. -9 . Compare the three estimates of the 100 year flood. /enerate a Bulletin -7B analysis %or eac& river 8it& a ta5le o% results and exceedance "ro5a5ility curves.(&en. By how much did the building of the dams on the Colorado Ri!er decrease flood magnitudes? Part 2: a% & graph of the annual ma'imum flows for the Colorado Ri!er at &ustin for the period of record. %ollo8in1 t&e "rocedure outlined in Part . W&at are t&e interestin1 c&aracteristics o% eac& river and %lo8 re1imeV To be turned in: 1. %o +e %urned In: Part 1: Compare the magnitude of the 10 year and 100 year floods for the data from 1941 onwards. 3iscussion of each ri!er and associated regime+ with comments on how 4e'treme5 the !alues for each are. use 2EC3SSP to -.C2//( Bulletin 10B analyses for each ri!er+ including a table of results+ e'ceedance probability cur!es+ and a comparison of the 102year and 1002year floods for each ri!er. 3.

*+ . .s the difference in the estimates by the two methods significant when compared to the confidence range on the Bulletin 10B estimate of the 100 year flow? Part 3: 1. method with that deri!ed from the Bulletin 10B method for the same period of record. c% Compare the 100 year flood computed computed since 1940 by the .b% (repare a table that shows for the Colorado Ri!er at &ustin the return period )years% of an annual ma'imum flow of *0+000 cfs+ and the magnitude in cfs of the 100 year flood+ as computed by the . /how these !alues for the full period of record from 1900 and for the flood record since 1940.'treme -alue $ype . 3iscussion of each ri!er and associated regime+ with comments on how 4e'treme5 the !alues for each are.'treme -alue $ype .C2//( Bulletin 10B analyses for each ri!er+ including a summary table of results+ e'ceedance probability cur!es+ and a comparison of the 102year and 1002year floods for each ri!er. distribution method.

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