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TALIBAN WAR IN PAKISTAN , AFGHANISTAN-A WRITERS PERCEPTIONS FROM 2001 TO 2011

TALIBAN WAR IN PAKISTAN , AFGHANISTAN-A WRITERS PERCEPTIONS FROM 2001 TO 2011

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This is consolidation of a number of analysis written on Taliban and the Afghan War from 2000 to 2011.

Over the passage of time my views have changed ,particularly after closely observing Taliban and Afghanistan from 2003 till todate. I began as a fierce Jihadists who drank alchohol but saw Jihadists as heroes like Che Guevera and Ho Chi Minh.

On seeing the Taliban closely in Afghanistan I ended as a cyncic about motivation of all actors whether US , Pakistani , Taliban or any other. This is why I felt in the end like a stateless man and a citizen of wilderness. This is a register of how a persons concept of world events and history transforms. I have deliberately kept the various essays together. There may be contradictions but there is a rational line of thought too. The readers must forgive me for my bitterness and cynicism . Agha H Amin

A historical examination of mercenary tradition of Pakistan Army published in a shorter form in PRAVDA on line on 24 September 2001

Yusuf Masti Khan-A Bold and Forthright Man in a Pakistan full of Hypocrites

We are a shameless state led by most shameless people both civilians and military !

They can stand any amount of kicking from the Americans !

Yusuf Masti Khan is a bold and daring progressive thinker from Balochistan.

A Baloch by race , but thats not important ! What is important that he is a rare commodity ! A Ghayoor and upright man in a country of most shameless leaders !

I was lucky to see him once on TV.He spoke boldly and forthrightly that Pakistan is nothing but a vassal of USA and pakistans army is in reality an army of USA !

Pakistan is a country where any man who states the truth is branded as anti state while its foundation was based on collaboration !

The most genuine people were jailed , tortured and killed in this so called state !

He rarely comes on Pakistani TV because most of the characters you see on pakistani TV are men of straw with no guts and totally intellectually dishonest !

Many years ago I had discussed pakistans mercenary history in my article published in PRAVDA in October2001 :--

The Indo Pak Armies and Their Mercenary Calling

by

A.H Amin

PRAVDA-Sep 2001

AGHA.H.AMIN

STATELESS MAN AND CITIZEN OF WILDERNESS JALA KAY MASHAL I JAAN HUM JANOON SIFAAT CHALAY ,JO GHAR KO AAG LAGAYAY HAMATAY SAATH CHALAY

Pravda.RU:Main:More in detail 16:20 2001-09-24 A.H.AMIN:

THE INDO-PAK ARMIES AND THEIR MERCENARY CALLING

As the adage aptly describes, there is nothing worse than to do the right thing for the wrong reason. We may modify it slightly by rephrasing it as doing the right thing, or the supposedly right thing, for the wrong reason! The pre-1947 Indian Army was a mercenary army composed of villagers from barren, rain-irrigated areas of India! These mercenaries were employed against their own people right from 1757!

The Sepoys (as these mercenaries were called) fought for money just like the Senegalese in French occupied Africa fought for money! These mercenaries comprised many nationalities and religions. They killed the Santhals in Bengal and the Martathas in Central India; they destroyed Tipu Sultan in 1799; they fought against the freedom fighters of 1857 when a greater part of the Hindustani mercenaries rebelled against the British masters! They fought against the Punjabi Sikhs, who later on were enlisted as mercenaries!

They fought against the Afghans in three wars during 1839-42, 1878-80, and in 1919. In addition, they fought in countless expeditions in the Trans-Indus Frontier from 1843 to 1946, destroying livestocks, razing villages to the ground, and destroying wells. Internationally, these mercenaries fought against the Muslim Turks in the First Great War, against the Chinese in the Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion, and against the Germans and in the First and Second World Wars: all races that had nothing against India! In short, these men fought for a living against anyone, whether they be Muslim Christian, Buddhist, Indian, Turkish, German, or Chinese for a living!

Espirit de Corps was a cleverly coined British ploy to galvanize these mercenaries.

There were exceptions to the mercenary rule. In 1857, the Bengal Army, some three-fourths of which was Hindustani Hindu led by one fourth Hindustani and Ranghar Muslims mostly from cavalry that rebelled against the English East India Company! Unfortunately, India was not a country, and the English Company found eager mercenaries in the northwest! They were eager to loot Delhi and panting to get land grants, Jangi Inams, and many more carrots that the cunning English colonials promised!

Opportunism became the rule of Indian society, now known as Indo Pak, whether it was poets,

educationists, lawyers, civil servants, or soldiers! The Indians were a defeated people and they thought that the White man was invincible! There were some exceptions to apathy when Sher Ali, a tall, muscular Pathan, stabbed the British Viceroy Mayo in the Andaman Islands in 1872!

Lord Mayo Viceroy of India stabbed to death by Sher Ali Afridi in 1872.Only an Afridi and a tribal Pashtuncould have done it ! They are the only ones with some spine left ! HA HA HA

However, Sher Ali Afridi was an exception, and most Indians were far more pragmatic and opportunistic than a Pathan convict in Andamans!

Sher Ali Afridi who was not a mercenary ,but an Afridi is an Afridi

Thus, nobody remembers Sher Ali today except the Pashtun Students Federation, where his photograph tops the gallery of heroes!

Like a blossom today then scattered, how can the fragrance last forever ,

Sher Ali was ,however, an exception, and sycophancy and appeasement remained the cardinal lifescripts of most Indians.

Sher Ali Afridi

Some motivated Pathans of the tribal area minus the more opportunistic people of Mardan Charsadda Swabi Kohat and D.I Khan carried at the struggle that had its origins in Sayyid Ahmad Brelvis guerrilla war. Then came the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05!

The myth of European superiority was broken! Some audacious men, mostly Bengali Hindus, decided to strike back! A bold man called Rash Behari Bose actually attacked the British Viceroy Charles Hardinge with a bomb containing gramophone needles and nails while he was entering Delhi in 1813. Unfortunately, Bihari failed to kill the viceroy. However, terror struck at the heart of the British!

So what if he was not a Muslim , he is and will remain our hero , because he was one!

Their viceroy was attacked not in far flung Andaman Islands but in the newly created imperial capital Delhi and not by a Wahabi but by a highly educated Bengali Hindu. Rash Bihari escaped, but the Indian Army did not wake up from the slumber of their mercenary sleep. The First World War was yet another testing ground for the mercenary Indian Army. In the words of one British historian, the Punjabi Muslims stood staunch as a rock while there was a question mark over the Pathans.

He did not ,however, add that these disloyal Pathans were not from settled districts of Mardan or Charsadda Kohat or Peshawar but from the tribal areas and from D.I Khan. Some Indian military men were ashamed of their degrading mercenary status and did rebel against the British.

Notable among these were the Hindustani Muslim Ranghars of the 5th Light Infantry, who for some

time captured Singapore;

The real patriots , men of 125th Light Infantry , Singapore 1915

the Afridis of various Frontier Force Units, notably the indomitable Mir Mast Afridi; and some Mahsuds from the Mahsud Companies of the 129 and 130 Baluchis. Lastly, there were the Pathan Squadrons of Curetons 15 Lancers (the Punjabi Muslim Squadrons remaining pragmatically loyal).

Mehsud warriors fighting against British

Waziristan being bombed 1919

All these men died, but all men are mortal. Is it death that our rulers are afraid of or is it a billion dollar package that will give them immortality? Is collaboration at the rate of few billion the golden lesson that they are leaving for posterity? A pragmatic lesson one must say. One important development took place during the First World War.

The Sikh Ghadrites, a group of Punjabis, some Hindus, and mostly Sikhs, did manage to subvert the Indian Army from their mercenary calling. They did not succeed, but many soldiers of scribes unit 23 Cavalry were court martialled and executed for conspiracy against British Empire.

On the whole, the Indian Army remained staunch even when martial law was imposed in Punjab in 1919, Gujranwala was bombed, many civilians flogged or made to crawl in the public, and many hundreds of civilians were killed by the army. The only inspiring incident of the Indian Army not being a mercenary force occurred in the 1930s, when the Garhwali Hindus soldiers of a unit of the Royal Garhwal Rifles refused to fire on the Pathan Muslim Redshirts demonstrating against the British.

Chandar Singh Garhwali who despite being a Hindu refused to open fire as a soldier of Garhwal Regiment at Peshawar in 1930.He was dismissed from the army and later elected as a member of parliament on Indian National Congress ticket

The Indian Army remained largely loyal in WW II, minus the Indian National Army in Burma. By and large, Indian independence had no connection with the Indian Army, who remained loyal mercenaries to the end to their British masters.

In India Nehru reduced the army to its correct place, i.e. a servile instrument of policy of the civilians. In Pakistan, because the Muslim League the political party that led Pakistan, there was an a party of soldiers with a mercenary past, and with nothing to do with the political struggle to free India, they were able to usurp power.

Since they were leaders of a mercenary army rather than a national army, they made the USA their godfather, making professions of being the vanguard of the USA, whether it was the protection of Anglo-Iranian Oil Fields or supporting Anglo-French claims over the Suez Canal. In the process of this abject appeasement, they managed an aid package from the USA. This was sufficient to make the Pakistan Army a sophisticated army but insufficient to win a war against India, not because of material reasons, but because of poor higher leadership and strategic and operational ineptness.

All throughout this period, the common Pakistani was anti-US anti-West, pro-Arab, and pro-Muslim. However, the common man was only a servile tool , democracy having been destroyed by 1958. The army remained a mercenary army with little national participation. It fought the 1965 War well, albeit at a battalion level, since beyond the battalion level, the more senior ranks were ones who had been programmed by the pre-1947 British to be company commanders at best. The 1965 War proved to be a watershed in Pakistani history, since it made clear the fact that the army was not a national army , since it was without participation from the country’s east wing!

This fact was realized by General Yahya, the new C in C, but it was too late. The result was a civil war followed by defeat in a conventional war and the break up of Pakistan into two states. Few lessons were learnt, and soon, the country’s first post-1946 democratically elected government was dismissed amidst allegations of superpower involvement.

The army came with a 90-day promise to hold elections, which were never held. The gap between the people and the army grew, and the situation was saved only by the fact that the Zia military junta found a new master, more correctly a new paymaster, in the USA once the USSR invaded Afghanistan. For next nine years, Pakistan fought the USA’s war against communism, only to be conveniently discarded like an syringe with a decade long life. A syringe used to inject poison into the Red Army and then thrown into the incinerator of history! Within three years of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the USA was all keen to declare Pakistan a terrorist state; the Americans have short memories.

Something like an impromptu encounter with a lass in a bar, followed by an expression of eternal love and everything forgotten the next day after the desired objective is achieved. Suddenly, in September 2001, precisely on the 11th of September, the USA suddenly woke up from a thirteen-year attack of insomnia and remembered that they had a very close friend called Pakistan: cheap friend led by a machine with a mercenary past. Thus, the latest US-Pakistan nexus.

What is the motivation of Pakistan’s military elite to appease the USA? They are a bunch of men who came into power in an impromptu manner and suffer from a crisis of legitimacy. Since the end of the Cold War, mercenaries were no longer in demand and Pakistan’s standing army was getting little aid from USA or any potential mercenary masters. The strikes September, 11th 2001 changed everything! Once again, Pakistan’s elite got a chance that they had last received in 1979. Because they had missed one in the 1990-91 Gulf War, this time they are in no mood to miss another!

Their mercenary calling has been given a God-given opportunity! Without any deliberation, the military junta gave the US near divine status and offered their mercenary services against a neighbouring Muslim country.

Soon, this stand was rationalized by the military dictator in the name of Pakistan’s best interest; that India would benefit if Pakistan did not go on its knees to appease the Americans; that the Israelis would attack Pakistan; that the USA was lesser of the two evils. Pakistan, the so-called bastion of Islam despite its 500,000 man army and an arsenal of nuclear weapons, is literally crawling in diplomatic language to appease the Americans. If this state created in the name of Islam is so vulnerable, then it should be declared the fifty-first state of the USA. It be a Puerto Rico or Panama with a US military presence.

Why all the macho talk about being Momins and soldiers of Allah?

Macho soldier of Islam is at his knees on one phone call from Uncle Bush,HA HA HA

The macho soldier ! HA HA HA

Soldiers of Allah who will be doing sentry duty around prospective airfields from where US aircrafts would fly to subject Afghanistan to fire and destruction! If a few billion dollars are so important, then what is the difference between Sepoy Khudadad who fought for 18 Rupees a month in the 1920s for the King and against his enemies?

If this country cannot survive without oil imported for free or on a subsidized rate from a neighbouring country, why waste the tax payers' money on a foreign ministry that consumes some 28 crores per day!

God may have made us poor, but we became Be Ghairat (Shameless) by our own choice! There have been too many strange coincidences in the last month. The death of General G.A Khan, the descendant of the indomitable Alizais who defied British orders to fight against the Turks in Mesopotamia 1915 in Mesopotamia.

The reader may note that the 15 Lancersso was an all-Muslim unit, but only its less pragmatic Pathan Squadrons refused to fight against the Turks, while the more pragmatic Punjabi Muslim Squadron obeyed orders like sheep. At the time of the blast, Pakistan’s top intelligence official was in USA. The Chinese decided to make a port at Gwadar, which could also be a naval base. The Talibans were close to complete victory in Afghanistan!

The year 2001 is a watershed in Pakistani history. Either Pakistan will be condemned to be a country ruled by mercenaries, or it will became a true republic, an Islamic Republic or whatever one may call it. Are we so weak that one threat from a bully with an average IQ sends our leaders , so-called martial men who wear camouflage commando jackets, a clear and total violation of the army dress code, of the Pakistan army down to their knees?

What is the use of a Chinese policy if one ultimatum evaporates all the resolution that our military leaders are supposed to have? It makes one think whether or not the Holy Kaaba is in Mecca or a few thousand miles further West. To stab your neighbor in order to gain a few billion is being rationalised as pragmatic foreign policy. Even a courtesan called Hazrat Mahal did not collaborate with the British, fighting the war of Independence in Lucknow.

She did not surrender even once Lucknow was recaptured in March 1858 and died in exile in Nepal. Pragmatism would have meant accepting a pension that the British offered her and settling in India. However, this dancing girl was not a mercenary! What has happened? Our rulers have accepted the role of glorified coolies and camp followers of the USA! This country's rulers had sold their souls in 1954 once the first major treaty with USA was signed. After a great deal of kicking during the period of 1990-1999, they regained some pride.

The year 2001 has robbed this nation from being a nation of resolute man. We have been auctioned for a few billion dollars. Auctioned because a superpower wants access to the strategic underbelly of Russia and China. Auctioned because of valid strategic reasons. Our leaders have not learnt anything from Machiavelli, whom they do try or claim to read.

The men who collaborate with any superior power or play bargaining games with it are the first targets. Thus, the fate of Liaquat in 1951, the fate of Bhutto who defied USA but died a martyrs death in 1979, and that of Zia in 1988 a collaborator mercenary. We have everything written on the wall.

Its only the lack of perception that makes us blind. Even Russia and China will be the losers!

Is this helicopter for external enemies or killing your own people ! HA HA HA

This so-called attack will stop on the Oxus River or at the Wakhan Strip. It will spread on into Chinese Turkestan (Sinkiang), Tajikistan, Kazakhastan, and to the Urals. If there is a minor Muslim separatist threat in China or Russia today, after a few years, these separatists will be getting Stingers to fight with until Siberia, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Sinkiang are sattellites of the Western powers. The Iranians are secretly rejoicing, but they must not forget that a Sunni Afghanistan is less of a threat

than an Afghanistan administered under a US or UN mandate.

The Talibans in all probability may be crushed, but Afghan nationalism will survive! Their will be new groups, new Ahmad Shah’s, nd new Hikmatyars who will fight a new Holy war against US occupation with Chinese- and Russian-supplied weapons, such as those from the CIA during 1979-88.

The Russians must forget how the USA had behaved when they occupied Afghanistan in 1979. 14,000 Russians died, most because of of weapons supplied to the Afghan resistance by CIA. The USSR must redress the balance of 1979-88 during 2001-10. Let the invaders come and settle down in Kabul and Kandahar and then send gifts of 100 body bags each day to their home country!

Is this country a private security agency that can be hired for a few billion dollars? If that is the case, why not lease our forces to fight as mercenaries as they did before 1947? Never in Pakistani history was collaboration so openly defended and propagated. Even Finland, a country far smaller than Pakistan, fought without US or British aid honorably for a certain duration of time. Are the Indians such a threat that we have to compete with them in being timid and shameless? The mercenary calling of our state has once again triumphed! The "bastion of Islam" is too weak to withstand one verbal volley of a man who is angry about something that has happened many thousand miles away from this country.

To compound things further, we have journalists, thinkers, and so-called experts busy writing articles for Hazoor ka Iqbal Buland Karna! Opportunism, which was instilled in us by the British in 1757, has once again triumphed! Two countries were created in the name of religionto date,i.e., Israel and Pakistan. Israel has fought for its ideology. Ironically, Pakistan has retained its mercenary character. Wrong, forever on the throne and truth, forever on the Scaffold!

A.H.Amin Major Agha Humayun Amin (Retired) is an ex-tank corps officer and a military writer and correspondent. He is the author of two books on the Pakistan army. He has been the executive editor of Globe Karachi and a military writer.

Assessing 9/11 and the future which would be fought as I saw it from Bahawalpur just a few days after on 14 September 2011.

A Financial Analysis of how the war on terror may be fought

An Audit of Warfare Wars in the Financial Perspective and some reflections on the present situation Major Agha.H.Amin (Retired) October 2001 http://www.defencejournal.com/2001/october/warfare.htm While valour, operational strategic insight receive great attention, financial aspects, drab albeit extremely significant, are mostly ignored by students of military history. This article aims at highlighting the financial aspect of war with a view to show that there is a great deal of truth in Napoleons saying why bigger battalions, other factors being relatively similar, are more likely to emerge as victorious! In ancient and medieval history size of armies was relatively small, munitions and armaments were rudimentary and armies lived off the land! As the size of armies increased and warfare became more civilised financial aspects of war became far more complicated. The period 1550-1650 was a watershed in military history. During this period size of armies radically increased. Around 1631 Gustavus Adolphus commanded armies which were in excess of 100,000. It became difficult to sustain such large armies. The total strength of the Mughal Army of Emperor Akbar was estimated around 38,77,557 matchlockmen and infantry (including militia and zamindars retainers) while the cavalry was estimated to be around 384,758 men.1 In Aurangzeb’s time the strength varied from 240,000 to 300,000 cavalry and around 600,000 infantry.2 In Aurangzeb’s reign Aurangzeb’s Maratha War laid the foundation of financial decline of Mughal Empire. The magnitude of the expenses may be imagined from the fact that Aurangzeb’s military budget was double of Shahjahan’s military budget!3 This expense had serious maritime implications. Because of pre-occupation with the Maratha guerrillas Aurangzeb failed to capture the strategic ports of Bombay and Madras.4 Thus by late 1690s and 1700 Bombay was a prosperous and strongly fortified port and had surpassed Mughal Surat as a port! During this period Mughal land revenue declined due to revolts and civil wars and foreign trade which could have compensated for the shortfall was almost zero, which may be gauged from the fact that custom revenue “yielded less than one percent of the total revenue of

the state”.5 This trend was not confined to India alone! War was no longer a question of few charges, a brilliant stratagem but a very costly affair. In 1552 a single campaign at Metz cost the Hapsburg Emperor Charles the Fifth ten times his normal income from the American colonies alone! The British victory at Plassey was decisive because it gave the English East India Company enormous additional revenue with which it was able to massively expand its army. Thus within four years of Plassey the English East India Company had effectively neutralised its rival French Company once it had captured the most important French base Pondicherry in 1761. The English East India Company became the best paymaster in India after Plassey and no native power could challenge it. Even on a personal level the British officers made huge personal fortunes out of war! Thus Clive as a relatively junior officer in Madras made something like 40,000 Pounds Sterling between 1744 and 1753! In Bengal he manoeuvred Mir Jafar into gifting him something like 234,000 Pounds Sterling in the period 1757-66 ! Even more honest British generals like Wellington earned prize money around the figures of 43,000 Pounds Sterling in the period 1798-1805!7 The other side of the coin is the fact that these men exposed themselves to fire unlike our silent soldiers and many more “GT Road soldiers” (a term coined by one of our leading military writers) who may have spent 1965 and 1971 war going up and down the GT Road, for no fault of theirs, but the resultant guilt complex makes them fond of wearing martial dresses, a clear violation of “Army Dress Regulations” with a macho outlook without having been through the baptism of fire! On the other hand wars, most of which were initiated by the highly ambitious Viceroy Marquis Wellesley brought losses for the English East India Company! Thus by 1815 three quarters of the budget of the English East India Company was gobbled by its 150,000 strong standing army alone! In 1815 the total debt of the East India Company stood at 40 Million Pounds Sterling!8 Wellesley was thus forced to extort money from States like Oudh whose more than half territory he annexed in 1801 citing political compulsions! This was not enough. In 1814-16 the English Company once again forced the Nawab of Oudh to give it a loan to finance part of the bill of the Anglo Nepal War! 9 Few people understand how the First World War bled Britain white in financial terms. This in turn weakened British resolve to hold on to the colonies and accelerated the process of grant of self-rule to the British colonies after the First World War. The British never realised how the First World War would affect them and financially destroy them! They were a victim of self-hypnosis about the sun never setting on the British Empire! Their historians had distorted the fact that Napoleon was not defeated by Nelson at Trafalgar alone but by Russian Spanish Austrian and Prussian blood in many wars fought between 1805 and 1815! Table No 1 illustrates the financial potential of Europe’s leading powers as it stood in 1914:—10 This was not all. As a matter of fact USA advanced huge loans to all allied countries which made their economy far more weaker than it was in 1914. The following table illustrates the war loans advanced by USA to various allied countries:— The British financial position was made worse by the fact that it had also advanced loans of a total amount of 8,695,000,000/- USD to its allies.13 Thus Britain with a total pre- war annual income of 11 Billion USD had spent something like 44,000,000,000/- USD as direct cost of the war (excluding indirect costs) as compared with US whose pre-war income was some 37 Billion USD and which had spent only something like 31,000,000,000/- USD as direct cost of war! Such was the British war weariness that it concluded a treaty with Afghanistan which had attacked India without fighting anything more than a few minor border actions! Thus British losses in the First Great War resulted in Afghanistan’s diplomatic independence, which it got by signing the Treaty of Rawalpindi in the aftermath of the Third Afghan War! Britain had won the war but its victory was a Pyhrric one !

The Japanese fought heroically against the USA in the Second World War. However, certain financial indicators show why the USA emerged victorious in the Second World War. Table No 4 shows the armament spendings of various countries in the period 1935-45 in Billions of USD at the rate as it stood in the year 1994:—14 As a matter of fact Table No 4 explains how the allies won the war against Japan and Germany! US money combined with Russian blood won the war since the Red Army sustained some 90%15 of the total casualties sustained by all allies! Japan was industrially too outmoded to fight USA. The fact that despite all these shortcomings the Japanese did well is no compliment to the US military role in WW Two! The Japanese industry took much longer to build aircraft carriers,16 the most important weapon of the war as compared to US industry. Thus Japanese cause was doomed after they lost four carriers at Midway. Industrially they could never recover from this loss. The industrial potential of the US armaments industry may be gauged from the fact that during Second World War US industry alone produced some 52% of world wide (including both allies and the axis powers) aircraft production, 36% of all artillery, 48% of all vehicles and 61% of all ship building!17 Recently in an article Lieutenant General Hameed Gul (Retired) called the US soldiers chocolate cream soldiers! Some pedants in order to indulge in the exercise of “Hazoor ka Iqbal Buland Karna” (Endless Sycophancy) criticised Hameed Gul for saying so! Logistically Hameed Gul’s point is valid. Even in WW Two the US soldier was a thoroughly spoilt soldier. This may be gauged from the following statistics. In WW II on the average each US fighting division consumed something like 720 tons of supply per day as compared with barely 200 tons of supplies per day of its German counterpart division. This included a scale of one ounce of sweets, two ounces of biscuits, and one packet of chewing gum for every man per day totalling something like 6,250 pounds of sweets, 12,500 pounds of biscuits and 100,000 packets of gum!18 The 1965 War certainly played a major role in derailing Pakistan’s economy and the 1971 War certainly proved too costly for Indira Gandhi and she was booted out within four years of a victorious war. The human mind works strangely! Increased expectations lead to bitterness and sometimes ungrateful behaviour and defeat results in increased resolve to vindicate one’s honour! In the present situation with a long low intensity war impending some readers may draw wrong conclusions and think that material might cannot be defeated with anything. This is incorrect provided the guerrilla or unconventional forces receive some kind of aid like the Viet Cong got in Vietnam War from USSR and the Afghan Mujahideen from USA! Fortunately guerrilla war turned out to be something totally different from conventional war. Thus in Vietnam despite spending something like direct cost of 515 Billion USD and a total cost of something like 900 Billion US Dollars19 the USA failed in its self-professed object of detainment of communism! This is despite the fact that over 13 Million Tonnes of bombs equivalent to 450 times the energy of the atomic bombs used on Hiroshima were dropped on Vietnam! This comes down to an average of 265 KG for every man, woman and child in Indo- China! Indeed one optimist has estimated that had the Americans showered the Indo-China residents with the money spent on making all these bombs they might have won the war of hearts and minds!20 But then men, at least the vast majority of them are highly irrational creatures! Conclusion War whether conventional or unconventional, high or low intensity is a combination of moral and material factors! In the first strike, audacity wins but long-term wars cannot be fought on audacity alone! Nations, especially those based on democratic institutions are not one man shows! Their decision making and executing processes are highly deliberate and well organised affairs! On the other hand every empire has gone through a process of rise, decline and fall and the same applies to USA! On the other hand, sentimental people which we are, we must not forget that US aid apart from Islamic fervour played a major role in the Afghan War or Jihad,

which has been described as “the largest covert action programme since Second World War”!21 Some 2 Billion US Dollars were pumped in Afghanistan by the USA, a far cheaper business than Vietnam! No one knows how much of the Vietnam War was financed by exports of high-grade narcotics from the Golden Triangle or how much of the Afghan War was financed from exports of Heroin and Dope from the Golden Crescent! The danger in today’s war is that it has no rules! It has too many shades, variation in which it is not easy to make out! Too many notes, too many flavours! It is far more complicated than any conventional or unconventional war which has been fought to date! The danger lies in the fact that hatred will become as intense as it was in the 30 Years War or in the Crusades! The power of state would increase at the expense of individual liberty and citizens of all countries, big and small will suffer! Indeed the foundations were laid once civilians were indiscriminately killed in Vietnam and when Operation Phoenix had authorised killing by assassination! Just last year this scribe had stated in one of the articles published in the Defence Journal, “Similarly the Americans must remember that the Muslim Jehadi Count Dracula that they resurrected many centuries after the crusades with CIA Dollars and modern US military hardware in Ningrahar and Paktia is definitely far more dangerous than the older original Transylvanian version of Bram Stoker which was only confined to the London journal in which it was serialised! This new Muslim Dracula may one-day travel in the hidden vaults of a merchant ship across the Atlantic or Pacific to USA! The reader may note that as per one respectable authority only five out of 100 containers arriving at US ports are checked thoroughly! Ironically the result would be the re-creation of a medieval or pre-medieval religious rivalry, for vampires can only be destroyed by recourse to religion! As in Indo-Pak religious extremism in India was intensified once religious extremism intensified in Pakistan from the post-1977 period. The case in Europe and USA may be almost similar. Fears of Islamic resurgence may give rise to another similarly absurd reaction in shape of Christian military resurgence!” One lesson in finance for unconventional forces fighting larger forces in today’s world is that they must have allies! One cannot gamble on any single card, may it be ideological fervour or martial races theory or sheer material superiority! A lesson for both the US and its present and potential enemies in the war against terrorism! There was a time when a man named Nixon had bragged “The bastards have never been bombed like they are going to be bombed this time”!22 The bastards were bombed but their resolve was not erased and USA had to finally withdraw from Vietnam! But USSR supported them to a great extent and China to a much lesser extent and the Cold War had not ended! May be the recent situation dating from 11th September restarts the Cold War or a hotter War! The worst war and the most costly war is one in which the enemy does not wear a uniform ! We saw one in 1971! It makes all including non-combatants vulnerable to attack and atrocities ! The war which began on 11th September 2001 is one without precedent in the history of mankind! This war will be the worse civil war cum crusade cum jihad fought on a global scale! The other day we heard someone saying “USA will never be the same again”. I am afraid that I disagree with this a bit myopic view! I assert with all my strength that after 11th September 2001 this world will never be the same again! God help us! To rephrase Lord Greys phrase made on the outbreak of First World War one may say that “lights around us are going out! Who knows whether the future generations will ever see them lit up again”! Table No 1 National Income in Per Capital Income in Country Population in millions billion USD USD United States of America 37 Billion 98 377

Britain 11 Billion 45 France 6 Billion 39 Japan 2 Billion 55 Germany 12 Billion 65 Italy 4 Billion 37 Russia 7 Billion 171 Austria-Hungary 3 Billion 52 Table No 2 shows the financial meaning of First World War11:— Country/Dominion/Colony Direct Cost of War in USD United States of America 22,625,253,000/Great Britain 35,334,012,000/Canada 1,665,576,000/Australia 1,423,208,000/New Zealand 378,750,000/India 601,279,000/Union of South Africa 300,000,000/British Colonies 125,000,000/France 24,265,583,000/Russia 22,593,950,000/Italy 12,413,998,000/Belgium 1,154,468,000/Romania 1,600,000,000/Japan 40,000,000/Serbia 399,400,000/Greece 270,000,000/Other Allied Countries 500,000,000/Grand Total 125,690,477,000/Table No 3 showing advances made in The First World War by the USA to its Allies12 Country Loan advanced in USD Great Britain 4,316,000,000/France 2,852,000,000/Italy 1,591,000,000/Russia 187,000,000/Belgium 341,000,000/Serbia 27,000,000/Czechoslovakia 50,000,000/Greece 43,000,000/Rumania 30,000,000/Cuba 10,000,000/Liberia 5,000,000/-

244 153 36 184 108 41 57

Table No 4 Showing Spending on Armaments in Billions in US Dollars COUNTRY 1935-38 1939 1940 1941 1942 USA Canada Britain USSR Germany 13.5 ? 22.5 72.0 108.0 5.4 ? 9.0 30.0 31.0 13.5 ? 31.5 45.0 54.0 40.5 4.5 58.5 76.0 54.0 180.0 9.0 81.0 104.0 77.0

1943 342.0 13.5 99.0 125.0 124.0

1944 378.0 13.5 100.0 144.0 153.0

Japan 18.0 4.5 9.0 18.0 27.0 42.0 54.0 End Notes 1Page-61-The Army of the Indian Mughals-Its Organisation and Administration-William Irvine-1898. Reprinted by Eurasia Publishing House-Ramnagar-New Delhi-1987. 2 Ibid. 3Page-316-Cambridge History of India-The Mughal Period-Lieut Col Sir Wolseley Haig and Sir Richard BurnReprinted by S.Chand and Company-New Delhi-1987. 4Page-242-The New Cambridge History of India-The Mughal Empire-John.F.Richards-Cambridge University Press-1993. 5 Page-317-Haig and Burn-Op Cit. 6Page-59-The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers--Paul Kennedy-Fontana Press-London-1988. 7Pages-129 & 130-The Rise and Fall of the British Empire-Lawrence James-Abacus Books-UK-1995. 8Page-133 & 134-Ibid. 9Page-239-A Popular History of British India-W.Cooke Taylor-1855-Reprinted by Mittal Publications-New Delhi1987. 10 Page-314-Paul Kennedy-Op Cit. 11Page-364-A Concise History of the First World War-Edited by Brigadier Vincent.J.Esposito-Pall Mall PressLondon-1964. 12 Page-369-Ibid. 13Ibid. 14Page-515-The Pacific War Encyclopedia-Volume Two-James.F.Dunnigan and Albert.A .Nofi-Facts on File IncNew York-1998. 15Page-987-Hitler and Stalin-Parallel Lives-Alan Bullock-Alfred. A. Knopf-New York-1992. 16Page-421-Pacific War Encyclopedia-Op Cit. 17Page-423-Ibid. 18Pages-33 & 34-Overlord-Max Hastings-New York-1984. 19Page-109-The Economic Consequences of the Vietnam War-Anthony.S.Campagna-Praeger-New York-1991. 20 Page-35-Vietnam-A Travel Survival Kit-Robert Storey and Daniel Robinson-Lonely Planet PublicationsAustralia-1995. 21Page-186-Superpowers Defeated-Douglas. A. Borer-Frank Cass Publishers-London-1999. 22 Reported in New York Times-

On Myths of Afghan history written shortly before the US actually physically invaded AfghanistanOctober 2001

On the Indo Pak Conflict31 May 2002

An assessment of the historical origins of the Muslim Christian Conflict and how the Jihadists sees the war.Also published on www.orbat.com Published in the NATION Lahore on 22 June 2002

WHAT USA SEEKS TO DESTROY A.H Amin The three cardinal attributes of today's geopolitics are "globalisation", "non ideological international themes" and "emphasis on economics" rather than "ideological conflict" as the key theme in international relations. It is another thing that below the surface "ideology remains a key issue", "the desire to enslave smaller or weaker states by larger or stronger states" remains the key issue and "globalisation" is but another name of capitalism practiced at a global scale. The so called unipolar system also has limitations and is being repeatedly challenged, if not conventionally, then unconventionally as proved by events of 9/11. The famous philosopher Toffler may have re-defined power but human nature remains the same as it was 2,500 years ago. US Think Tanks and so called experts may advance subtle theses but the underlying conflict is the same i.e. a West which adopted Eastern

Christianity and refashioned it as per Barbarian ideals versus an East with a different mindset and a different set of values. The international capitalist order was challenged by French Revolution and the Communist Revolution in Russia but the power of the imperialistic exploiters could not be broken. Nonetheless without USSR military aid the Arabs could not have survived Israeli hegemonism. This is an irrefutable historical reality. Long ago the West's present dilemma was summed up by one of its greatest historian Gibbon in the following words "Yet this apparent security should not tempt us to forget that new enemies and unknown dangers may possibly arise from some obscure people, scarcely visible in the map of the world". In the same paragraph Gibbon cited the example of the Arabs who had "languished in poverty and contempt" till the advent of Islam when in Gibbon's words Islam" breathed into those same bodies the soul of enthusiasm". When modern US thinkers with links with US State decision making and analytical bodies state with confidence that "ideology is no longer fashionable" and that "international terrorism" is the key issue who are they fooling. If this line of thinking is to be followed, whenever any White Man or a Jewish man dies it is terrorism while whenever any non White or Muslim dies this is casualty inflicted in sheer self defence in the war against terrorism. A stooge is a man who was protected by USSR and a King or Emir or a president protected by US Forces or US aid is a perfect patriot. Take the "Firebombing of Tokyo" on the fateful night of 9/10 March 1945. On that night the US Airforce in the proud words of an American writer "conducted the most destructive air raid in history". Sixteen square miles of Tokyo were destroyed and some 83,793 Japanese civilian were killed mostly by third degree burns while some 40,918 were injured. A US General proudly exclaimed "It made a lot of sense to kill skilled workers". Compare this with US position on 9/11. If for a moment we accept that 9/11 was a great outrage in which some 3,000 were killed not all of them skilled, what was Tokyo Raid of March 1945? There is a subtle motivation here. An ulterior geopolitical agenda. The West still fears ideology which it abandoned after 1945 in favour of shameless materialism. It fears men who cannot be bought, who have no fear for the tomorrow, who cannot be stopped by a NATO or the wide Atlantic or wider Pacific. USSR may have been a more synthetic state but the men motivated to die without motivated by the CIA pumped dollar via

Silent Soldiers is a more dangerous specie. Enters the Asian and African Collaborator Regimes. Liberal Presidents, subtle Emirs, Egalitarian Kings, all mustered like Sepoy Jahan Khan in the First World War to fight the War against Terror. The Soviets were more naïve if less morally defective than the American decision makers. The Americans seek to accomplish enslavement through more sophisticated methods. Thus one of their intellectuals states in an article that "unlike centuries past, when war was the great arbiter, today the most interesting type of power do not come out of the barrel of the gun". Today this man says "there is a much bigger pay off in getting others to want what you want". And there is no shortage of collaborators, ambitious men who usurped power whether it was after the downfall of Ottoman Empire with British or French money or in Egypt or Pakistan or in Indonesia. Somewhere deep inside the US decision makers are at a loss to admit as to how with a 30 Billion USD intelligence budget, 13 Federal Organisations dealing with Intelligence and some 30,000 eavesdroppers employed by USA's National Security Agency was the Al Qaeda able to strike. Compare 30 Billion USD per year spent since two decades with may be 4 Billion USD lost in 9/11. If the East or the Islamic World has any edge over the West it is in willingness to sacrifice rather than materialism and selfishness. What the West and particularly the USA fears is not nuclear weapons but men motivated by ideology. Men who cannot be bought like the so many Emirs, Kings and Military Presidents from Morocco till Pakistan. The world has not changed from Gibbons' times. The New Barbarians as the USA sees the Muslim radicals are more dangerous because they cannot be bought. Because they have operational talent and strategic acumen. Because they do not beg like Sadat for a Camp David but fight with their limbs rather than Stingers. What the US seeks is destruction of ideology which as per one theme presently floated in the so called prestigious National Defence College at Islamabad is no longer fashionable. This is the Clash of Civilisation and will continue till this world exists or till the USA discovers a new planet where human beings can survive and to which the Americans will migrate after all the mineral resources of this world are exhausted and we are left to die without water or fuel. If this is so and if low intensity war is the only way in which the

conventionally weaker forces can defeat the conventionally stronger forces then so be it. If extremism in thought or ideology is out of fashion and out of favour with USA and its camp followers, so be it. If we are in any case condemned to be sub humans in a world order dominated by the G-7 and have no other recourse but to fight with bomb, dagger or suicide explosive pack then so be it. Jala kay Mashal-i-Jaan, Hum Junoon-Sifaat Chalay. Jo Ghar ko aag lagaay, hamarey saath chalay. ESSENCE OF THE MATTER PAKISTANI HISTORY SUMMED UP-PUBLISHED IN DAILY NATION LAHORE IN AUGUST 2002 AFTER WHICH NATION WAS WARNED NOT TO PUBLISH MY ARTICLES AND THEY DID NOT TILL 2003

Essence of Pakistani History in a page

Essence of the Matter A.H Amin August 2002 Nation , Lahore

While analysis of todays Pakistani politics is outwardly subtle and convincing at the face value , serious historical analysis remains the weak point .What is lacking is the long view , the inability to penetrate through appearances,the motivation to write with an ulterior motivation to please to secure personal business objectives and worse of all to criticise simply because a writer has acquired the reputation of a cynic and his writings are read simply because his cynicism provides a catharsis for many ! This does not mean that all is well or all military or civil rulers are well meaning reluctant coup makers ! This article is an attempt to capture crux of the whole issue in a few paragraphs ! An ambitious but certainly not impossible endeavour ! First of all the basis of modern Indo Pak politics was initially a type of liberal set of beliefs based on faith in British parliamentary system and liberalism mixed with the philosophy of self rule ! The British introduced Western democracy in India with a view to afford a vent to the Indians desire for participation and sense of involvement ! The urban professional classes picked it up as a means for self realisation or self advancement ! The feudals picked it up as a means of continuing their unfair advantage or position of influence in the Indian society. The middle classes ran after government jobs as a means of self advancement and economic benefit ! The Indian soldiers served in the army as mercenaries motivated by economic benefits and part propelled by espirit de corps ! The politicians came into conflict with the British not because all of them were heroes or martyrs but because it was a struggle for power ! The civil servants and mercenary pre 1947 Indo Pak soldiers collaborated with the British because it improved their prospects of self advancement ! The pre 1947 Indian Army , the father of the post 1947 Indian and Pakistan Army had nothing to do with Indo Pak political struggle at

least in what they voluntarily or deliberately did less a platoon of Garhwal Rifles which refused to open fire on Muslims demonstrating in Peshawar in 1930 ! After all who was shooting down Indo Pak civilians like partridges in Wana , Razmak ,Sindh and Jallianwalla Bagh other than the British Kings Indian Army ! Four brigades in tribal areas , two brigades in Sindh in the Hur Rebellion ! The Indian or Muslim civil servant, soldier and policeman till 14th August and some to date were collaborators of the Western power which ruled India till the transfer of power ! The Hindus were better organised politically since the Indian National Congress was dominated by a strong Hindu professional and business class while the Muslims were condemned to be politically more backward since because of peculiar historical reasons Mr Jinnah had no choice but to accept the Muslim feudals who dominated Muslim politics ! Mr Jinnah was forced to ally with the Unionists in Punjab and the Sindhi landlords in future against the advice of Punjabi Muslim urban leaders like Dr Iqbal because it was a strategic compulsion.Thus from August 1947 India inherited a strong political culture while The Muslim League was destroyed by the feudals who had joined it out of fear of land reforms and because of being in debt to Hindu money lenders just a few years after Mr Jinnah's death ! Here again economics played a major role ! It has been estimated that in pre 1947 Punjab and Sindh money lending was the most important occupation after agriculture and that while the net revenue of Irrigation Department of Punjab was 267 Lakh Rupees that of money lenders was 500 Lakh Rupees ! In 1911 out of a total of 803,560 money lenders in India some 25 % or 193,890 lived in Punjab alone ! Thus while the total population of pre 1947 Punjab was one eleventh of India ,it had some one fourth of India's money lenders ! All this ensured that the feudal elements jumped in the Muslim League band wagon not out of genuine motivation but because of economic compulsion ! Now the post 1947 era ! While post 1947 Indian Congress leaders like Nehru and Patel chided the Indian Army for their un nationalistic role in British rule and reduced their basic salary Pakistan was condemned to be ruled by a civil military clique within eleven years of independence ! Men who had collaborated with the British before 1947 became Pakistan's rulers within seven years of Independence ! Officials of Indian Audit and Accounts Service like Ghulam Mohammad and Mohammad Ali ! Feudals like Kalabagh who before 1947 were faithfuls of a man no higher than the British Deputy Commissioner of Mianwali ! Compare the fact that while Nehru abolished Cantonment Boards within no time after independence even today a

Pakistani civilian living in a plot of land bought by paying through his nose in a cantonment area lives within perpetual awe of the cantonment boards simply because no Pakistani statesman had the courage or the vision to reduce the military or civil bureucrats to size ! A man who spent his life in sycophancy of the British was this country's governor general within four years of independence while genuine freedom fighters like Raja Ghazanfar Ali were outcasts within four years of independence ! A political agent whose pre partition training was to intrigue and lie and make the frontier tribes fight so that British rule was prolonged was this country's president within eight years of independence ! A soldier who was guilty of tactical timidity in Burma was this country's first Muslim Army chief within four years of independence ! While this country's first military ruler came with a pledge to modernise this country the culture of police gang rape was a direct result of the Ayub-Kalabagh style of governance ! Who can forget the Miss Akhtar Case of Lyallpur or the Kharian Police Gang Rape case of 1968. Since the Pakistani military has had the best of all in most of Pakistan's history we will confine this discussion to the military's role ! A study of history proves that while the Roman Republic was great the citizens were poor or lived a Spartan living ! While the first four Muslim caliphs practised austerity the Muslim Kingdom touched Central Asia at one extreme and Egypt at the other ! Now compare Pakistan ! Three of the four of Pakistan's military rulers till to date were from humble background less Yahya Khan whose father was from the Indian Police Service ! All three less Yahya Khan departed richer than they were when they took over while the Pakistani state successively became poorer with their departure ! Compare Ayub Zia's or any of todays three or four star generals assets with what they had at the time of passing out from the miltary academy whether it was the Sandhurst or OTS Dera Dun or Kakul ! As per Feldman a reliable authority Ayubs studies in college were financed by Nawab Kalabagh ! Major General Tajammul states that in 1950 the then major general Ayub had just one green suit ! Zia of 1960s is remembered by Gul Hassan as a meek obsequeous soldier , a man unfit to be an officer of the Pakistan Army in words of his immediate senior Major General Nawazish ! Why these man acted the way they did ! Was it because of ideology or self interest ? From necessity or from choice ? Mustafa Kemal had saved Turkey from disintegration , a direct consequence of the Treaty of

Sevres ! Degaulle was a military hero of France ! What were our military rulers ! Ayub destroyed the Constitution of 1956 , a direct consequence of which was the separation of East Pakistan within fifteen years ! General Zia destroyed the Second Constitution of Pakistan simply because he feared a prime minister who could threaten his personal authority ! We had one who came to wipe out corruption and institutionalised corruption in the Pakistani society through route permits and industrial permits ! We had one who attempted to undo what his soldier predecessor had been doing for eleven years in order to perpetuate his rule and presided over this country's partition in 1971 ! We had one who wanted to hold hands with God Almighty in his dishonesties and in the process introduced extremism in this country's politics ! He came with a Morris Minor and today his sons are in Land Cruisers ! We have one who professes to be a liberal and is strengthening the police and faces the most serious religious threat in Pakistan's history ! All were motivated by self interest ! All three came poorer and left the country poorer if not economically then politically ! What is the conclusion ! All military rulers acted out of self preservation ! They had no ideology ! Less Yahya all started from the lower middle class or middle class and ended as business tycoons ! They destroyed constitutions , promiscuously destroyed the political system by introducing test tube babies in politics who they later condemned as corrupt and defective ! They destroyed Pakistan's constitution transforming the office of prime minister from that of a potent statesman and respectable political chief executive to that of a glorified eunuch ! All to preserve one man's head ! All to ensure personal power ! When they acted out of choice it was for self preservation , when they acted out of choice it was for self advancement ! In a nutshell Pakistan's political history is a story of soldiers of humble origins motivated by intense ambition and rising to the highest political office ! Entering the stage with one green suit and departing the stage leaving a dynasty with phenomenal riches whether it was Zia or Ayub or todays Crore Commanders ! While admirals guilty of worst sort of bribery are allowed to go scot free politicians against whom one single charge even one tenth of Mansoorul Haq is not proved are rotting in Jails since last five years ! Our memories are short , we have been brought up doctored through propaganda,through censured press and are made to believe that our present rulers are honest while their predessors were dishonest ! Alas

we have reached a stage when no one seriously reads the newspapers any more ! The self proclaimed Messiahs of this nation administered so many injections of falsehood and distortion to it that today that the average man has lost all political awareness ! He is well meaning and motivated but no longer has faith in the state or in those who lead him ! Inflation and depression has reduced him to a robot ! From those who day and night praise this regime motivated by a large number of reasons of self interest one may ask this question ! Has human nature changed ! Is personal interest not the ideology of todays military government ! If submarines were bought in the past are not Boeing 777 being purchased today ! If there was a polo ground constructed in the past what about many hundred acres leased to a foreign company for a commercial golf course today ! Defaulters who cannot enter Dubai are heading banks in Pakistan ! If all was divided in between cousins and inlaws yesterday , is not the same happening today ! In the worst Machiavellian phrase in todays Pakistan dominated by the soldiers self propagated image as one who NABs the corrupt what is it all other than a simple proof of Machiavellis dictum " Assume a virtue,Prince,if you have it not ! Honesty and Spartan living are not virtues in todays Pakistan ! Machiavelli was not wrong when he said " men are easily corrupted and let themselves become of the opposite nature,no matter how good they are and well taught". We are condemned to rigged elections,manipulation of like minded lotahs and palace intrigues ! We are condemned to long term insecurity simply because some individuals are not secure with a strong and stable political system for this country ! This is our tragedy from which we can only be rescued albeit ironically by unforeseen air crashes or war !

Betrayal at Camp David Published in Daily Nation Lahore 22 June 2003 and quoted by Carlotta Gall in New York Times

20 June 2003 While outwardly Musharraf’s Camp David meeting with Bush is being termed by the official media as a harmless exercise in enhancing Pakistan’s economic development , there is little doubt that this meeting is a part of secret diplomacy that started around 1998 once Pakistan defied US threats and went forward with a Nuclear blast at Chaghai .

While USA is fighting a supposed war against Terror Musharraf is fighting a war to stay in power ! This is the key to what will be brokered and sold at Camp David ! In a nutshell Musharraf is going to Camp David to get a ten year extension from the actual power that appoints army chiefs in Pakistan ! It is another matter that army chiefs in Pakistan appoint and dismiss prime ministers !

The US strategic objectives in Indo Pak are (1) Pakistans denuclearization (2) Denial of freedom of manouevre to anti US unconventional warfare groups waging a low intensity war against USA (3) Establishing a new order in which India would be the key US ally against China while Pakistan is assigned the task of dog catcher to catch anti US groups or their members and do the dirty job of acting as sub contractor police man of USA in Iran and Middle East !

Pakistan’s denuclearization started once Shaukat Aziz the US Citizen and VVIP status US agent visited Kahuta laboratories ! He went there , he saw it and now he is proceeding to to DC to report ! Sab Achha Sahib ! What was accomplished by Israeli Fighters by destroying Iraq’s Nuclear reactor in two minutes over Baghdad would be accomplished by USA in Musharraf’s five year over Pakistan ! Three years have already passed ! If Pakistan is economically improving it is at the cost of betrayal of its military potential !

Musharraf knows that unless the Kashmir issue is resolved or significant efforts are made in that direction there can be no complete denuclearization of Pakistan as his benefactor USA desires ! The Pakistani people has to be presented a solution that promises to solve the Kashmir issue so that this can be used as a bait to proceeed with denuclearization of Pakistan . Since India would not agree to complete pull out the USA is working on two solutions , one in which the valley would be neutralized by Indian troop withdrawal , placed under the Aga Khan for ten years and then given a choice to be independent or join India or Pakistan , the second solution is to accept the line of control as border ! Kashmir would be used as a bait to denuclearize Pakistan while economic aid in form of writing off of loans and other packages would be the anaesthesia to take care of the anti US perceptions of the vast bulk of all who matter in Pakistan ! We have made Pakistan a prosperous and nice place to live in so forget about Nuclear weapons and let India and Musharraf live in peace !

The USA knows that Musharraf is walking on a tight rope and they would be happy that Musharraf continues to walk on that tight rope for his next ten years as president of Pakistan.This is the civilized Machiavellian way of dealing with what Musharraf terms as US allies !

Both Musharraf and USA knows that a sellout would not be acceptable to the Pakistani public , therefore they will stretch the drama to a two to five year period so that the climax is robbed of any of its attached tension and melodrama ! When the edifice of a nation created on ideological grounds would collapse there would be no sound and all would be done with surgical precision !

The USA knows that a direct sell out at Camp David would lead to a Islambouli style assassination in Pakistan ! Therefore the sellout would be slow , subtle and Machiavellian ! One possible way of doing it would be to start constitutionally ! Scrap the 1973 Constitution , getting rid of Islamic provisions and the LFO controversy ! Hold new elections after a period of three to five years in which US injections of bribe aid would have bought all politicians and silence all voices of dissent ! Proceed with Phase two after the new elections ! The new parliament and the military president go forward as allies and betray this nation !

The game being played at Camp David is little else than betrayal par excellence ! Pakistan’s military rulers have always regarded the USA as a safer bet than the choice of Pakistani people ! Musharraf is proceeding to Camp David to prove it once again ! 7 July 2003 Pakistan’s Islamic Factor History proves that religion has been repeatedly used by various classes to secure their personal or class aims and objectives ! Religion as a political factor to unite Indians against the British was introduced in politics by Gandhi ! Gandhi represented the Hindu middle and professional classes funded by the business classes who were western educated , outwardly secular in outlook but relied on Hindu religious symbols to achieve their political ends ! When Gandhi sidelined Mr Jinnah from main congress leadership after 1921-22 Mr Jinnah also abandoned his initial ideology of Indian nationalism based on constitutionalism and adopted Islam as his slogan ! In most of his political speeches Mr Jinnah stressed on the fact that the Indian Muslims were a separate nation and their unique religious and social practices entitled them to have a separate country ! This slogan was convenient and politically expedient to unite the pre 1947 Indo Pak Muslims against the Hindu dominated congress !

In 1947 while addressing the constituent assembly of Pakistan Mr Jinnah clarified that his idea of Pakistan was a secular state where Muslims and non Muslims would politically speaking only be Pakistanis and religion would be a private matter ! Mr Jinnah’s line of reasoning was not immediately questioned by the religious right since Jinnah was an indisputed leader but the question whether Pakistan was a secular state or an Islamic state was hotly debated in the constituent assembly of Pakistan from 1948 till 1956 ! The Muslim League and most other parties of this time were dominated by the professional middle classes or landlords who had merely viewed religion as a slogan to galvanise the masses and never wanted a theological state ! The landlords wanted to get rid of a Hindu money lending class and a land reform threatening congress party while the middle classes enthusiastically supported Pakistan because they viewed the new state as one with greater opportunities of advancement for their class since the Hindus who were more educationally advanced were eliminated from the competition ! The religious parties which had initially opposed Pakistan’s creation based on the idea that partition would only divide Indian Muslims now turned the table on the Muslim League by demanding that since the Muslim League itself declared that the Indo Pak Muslims needed a separate country to practice Islam , the new country must be based on the Islamic Sharia ! The non religious feudal and middle class Muslim Leaguers led by Liaquat Ali Khan initially outmanoeuvred the Islamists by moving the Objectives Resolution which paid lip service to Islam while preserving Pakistan’s initially envisaged secular ethos ! The Islamists however were not pacified and the 1953 Anti Qadiani riots proved that the Islamists were a force to be reckoned with ! However massive US aid from 1954 to 1965 marginalised the Islamists and strengthened the secular forces under the military dictator Ayub Khan ! In 1970 the Islamists were again unable to gain much except in NWFP and Baluchistan and the neosocialist PPP and the nationalistic Awami League swept West and East Pakistan ! Islamists parties were strengthened in between 1971-77 because of the 1971 defeat and because of some of Mr Bhuttos policies ! In 1977 the religious right gained a new benefactor in shape of USA who viewed the Islamist dominated anti Bhutto Pakistan National Alliance as a safer bet than an anti US charismatic leader like Bhutto ! Thus the 1977 agitation and the Zia military coup of 1977 which toppled Mr Bhutto ! Pakistan’s military dictator decided keeping in view the immense political strength of the anti Zia PPP that his best bet to survive was use of Islam as a political slogan ! Thus Zia’s Islamisation measures and the various stunts and ploys employed by the military junta to demonstrate that Zia was a true soldier of Islam ! The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan further strengthened Islamist forces not only in Pakistan but at an international level ! Out of the Afghan War of 1979-88 emerged a promiscuous alliance of convenience like a Mutah marriage ! Financed by the CIA and the Saudis , with Islam as slogan , and Jihad as the modus operandi ! The Islamists because of sheer expediency became the darlings of Pakistan’s ISI and USA’s CIA ! Many billions were pumped to support the anti Soviet Jihad ! Islamist forces were able to consolidate themselves with lavish funds,advanced weaponry and elaborate organizational networks ! All changed after the Soviet withdrawal from Afganistan ! The islamists now became a liability for USA and the Pakistani elite ! The dirty war was over ! The Islamists had done their job ! Now they must not be allowed to reap the harvest ! Thus a reversal of policies ! By 1991 however the Pakistani elite realized that USA no longer needed them and as a result Islamist forces once again received a boost ! Both Nawaz and Benazir governments made many efforts

to endear themselves to the USA but the USA snubbed both ! Islamist forces as a result re-organised ! In 1994-96 Pakistan’s government once again used religion as a slogan once the Afghan Talibans were cultivated ! For some time the Americans also saw the taliban as a safe bet for oil pipelines ! However by 1998 the Americans realized that the Talibans were not good enough puppets and must be removed ! During all this time Pakistan’s economy rapidly weakened because of US embargoes and economic policies ! The politicians and the military and intelligence bosses once again fell back on Islamist forces which were used to fight the bloody undeclared wars in Kashmir ! The Kargil adventure of 1999 was the highpoint in this drama once regular Pakistan Army volunteers were employed in the name of Islam with diasastorous consequences ! By October 1999 once Musharraf usurped power Pakistan was a sidelined state till the 9/11 incident which proved a heaven sent opportunity for Pakistan’s military junta just like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan had done for Zia the junta ! Pakistan’s military junta now made a U turn and collaborated with the USA in fighting a war against Islamists ! In 1979-89 the same military junta was with the Islamists because it meant US aid ! Now the same military junta viewed the Islamists as persona non gratas simply because it meant getting US aid ! The same state continues till to date ! The chain of historic events above mentioned demand analysis ! From 1937 till 1947 the pre 1947 Muslim elite employed “Islam” as a slogan to galvanise the Muslim masses based on the emotional Pakistan slogan based on Islam ! Once Pakistan was achieved the same elite immediately made a U turn and declared that Pakistan was a secular state without justifying why 1 million Muslims were sacrificed to create a Muslim state where religion would be a personal matter ! Thus HAFEEZ Jullundhri noted with sarcasm ‘ Qaafle lut gaiy barbad ho gayay to kia hooa , Mutmain hain Qaafla Salaar apnay Kaam Say ! Between 1947 and 1976 religion was ditched as US aid came and the middle classes and the higher classes enjoyed great prosperity partly because of international aid and more because of elimination of the rich Hindus by mass genocide and control of evacuee property ! In 1977 religion was employed as a slogan because the middle and higher classes united with the Islamists simply because Mr Bhutto’s policies were a threat for the urban classes in Karachi ,Multan and Lahore because of a variety of reasons including nationalization,quota system,liberal outlook etc ! The USA financed the Islamists against Bhutto because they thought that the Islamists were asafer bet than Bhutto ! Between 1977 and 1989 Pakistan’s military junta used Islam as a tool because it suited their political and economic ends i.e because of the PPP as a political threat and the US military and economic aid in Afghan War ! Between 1989 and 1999 the Islamists once again received a boost because US stopped their aid and the civil and military elite once again picked up the slogan of Islam in danger ! Between 2001 and to date Pakistan’s military junta once again made a U turn and adopted an anti Islamist policy simply because it meant US economic and military aid ! The elections of 2002 strengthened Islamists forces thanks to the U turn of Pakistan’s military government after 9/11 ! The resultant sense of betrayal strengthened the Islamists morally ! The Islamists for the first time emerged as a strong constitutional force which challenged Pakistan’s military junta in Pakistan’s parliament ! Thus the MMA stand on LFO and against Musharraf’s US appeasing policies !

There is no doubt that a storm is gathering in Pakistan Iran Afghanistan and the Arab world which this time will not subside ! This storm is gathering because the Muslim elite has repeatedly used Islam as a convenient slogan , picked up at will to get aid from USA and abandoned at whim once it meant not getting US Dollars ! The Islamists are on a strong footing today ! This the start of a drama that would carry on in many acts ! Since religion was used as a cheap slogan by the elite , now it appears that the elite would have a harder time in manipulating the common man ! Inflation , rising population , unemployment is strengthening the Islamists forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan by leaps and bounds ! The US invasion of Iraq ahs further strengthened the Islamist forces since it has proved to be a spur for forces of resistance led by Islamists! One Million dead in 1947 to create a country of Muslims !Two million dead in Afghanistan from 1978 till 2003 ! 100,000 dead in Kashmir from 1989 till to date ! 500 dead in Kargil ! The many thousands dead in Palestine,Algeria,Egypt , Iraq , all in the name of Islam ! To make the Islamic world a safer place for miltary dictators who order military volunteers in the name of Islam but pose as liberals to get US aid ! Kings and princes who gamble in Monaco and womanise in Paris but stage behaedings of small time drug dealers to give cheap thrills to the common man ! The day when the Muslim common man would question military dictators or kings about what they did to the aid money they got or the oil money they wasted in gambling or enjoying is not very far away ! Inshallah I hope ! In the next ten years a long bloody war would be fought between the Islamists and the opportunist forces in Muslim world which have agaian and again used Islam as a cheap tool to drug the masses ! Now the Muslim common man cannot be fooled or amused by cheap slogans or beheadings of petty criminals ! Now they want the heads of their rulers who have used Islam in the most Machiavellian manner for achieving their cheap personal and dynastic ends ! This the decade of the decisive war between Islamists and anti Islamists ! This war will not be won by superior weaponry or cheap slogans ! This war will be fought in the shadows , covertly and more motivated forces would finally carry the day ! Many Roman Empires and many great dynasties would be destroyed in the process ! When the common man fearlessly snipes at the US soldiers in Baghdad or when the common man defies Rangers and so many other military entities and goes on with suicide bombings , wars can no longer be won by conventional forces with better weapons bu t weaker hearts ! The human heart is the most decisive weapon and the USA alienated it after 9/11 ! 29 July 2003 Pakistan's Power Equation and Geopolitical Future We start with the premise that religion was employed by the Muslim elite right from the very beginning to galvanise the Muslim masses ! The masses were galvanised to fight and die in the name of Islam , while the elite classes reaped the harvest ! While this was the case from the earliest Muslim invasions of India we shall only discuss Pakistan's power equation in its present historical context. The Indo Pak Muslims played a leading part in the 1857 rebellion while the vast bulk of the army that rebelled in 1857 was Hindu ! After 1857 the Muslim elite adopted a policy of "loyalism" to the British.This policy continued till 1947 and after 1947 the British were replaced by the Americans !

Symbolically although it may sound unpleasant one may compare the Indo Pak Muslims of pre 1947 as a damsel , half raped by Hindu and Sikh resurgence saved by an English knight in the shining armour i.e the " English East India Company" ! It is unheroic , but remains a fact ! By 1803 Delhi the old Muslim capital was firmly in Hindu Maratha hands while Muslim majority Punjab and Frontier was firmy under Sikh control ! Muslim ruled Sindh and Bahawalpur were only saved from Sikh occupation since the Treaty of Amritsar of 1809 between the English Company and Sikhs forbade Sikh expansion east of sutlej and in Sindh ! The Indian Muslims were politically backward and saved from political extinction once the British for their own reasons of divide and rule granted them right of separate electorate in 1909 ! The major Muslim leader of pre 1947 Mr Jinnah was initially a pork eating whiskey drinking Indian nationalist but was forced to adopt slogans of Muslim cimmunalism since Gandhi and Nehru sidelined him from main Indian nationalist leadership since Jinnah was not a Hindu , although Nehru was only a born Hindu and an atheist at heart ! Thus Mr Jinnah without the religious slogan was confined to Muslim minority provinces in 1937 elections ! The approach of Second World War and Congress's anti British stand afforded Jinnah with an opportunity to side with the British Raj in WW Two by encouraging Muslim support to British war effort .The British viceroy Linlithgow then asked Jinnah that he must have a concrete slogan ! Thus emerged the Pakistan Resolution of 1940 ! In 1947 Mr Jinnah concluded that since now the British who had saved the Indian Muslims from Hindu domination were gone he must find new protectors ! Thus the US -Pakistan collaboration ! Mr Jinnah's successors were removed by the military usurper Ayub in 1958 and Ayub attempted to transform Pakistan into a relatively modern state led by a monopoly of industrialists and feudals ! The attempt failed in 1969 ! Pakistan's first and only major ideological leader was Mr Z.A Bhutto who coined the term " Islamic Socialism" ! Bhutto created Pakistan's only solid political party and galvanised the masses by slogans of Islamic Socialism and egalitarianism ! Bhutto's ideological appeal and charisma survived his judicial murder by the military usurper Zia. Bhutto's party remained engaged in struggle with the military junta and won the 1988 elections held in the aftermath of the dictator Zias aircraft crash ! 1988 was the turning point in Pakistan's political history ! Bhuttos opportunistic daughter Benazir exchanged ideology for power ! The army and its intelligence set up and a conservative president was given a share in the power and the great Bhuttos daughter excelled not in socialist policies but in financial deals !

This situation enabled the military junta to repalce Bhutto by a military backed Nawaz Sharif twice in 1990 and 1997 ! By 1997 Nawaz became politically mature and turned the tables on the military sacking first a naval chief on charges of corruption in a submarine deal and then the army chief General Karamat for corruption charges in the Ukrainian tank deal ! Nawaz then led Pakistan while Pakistan detonated its nuclear device in 1998 and then went forward to make peace with India which was sabotaged by the army's Kargil faux pas ! Nawaz was overthrown by Musharraf in October 1999 once Nawaz was also planning to remove Musharraf ! Musharraf came to power with high ideals and promises to eliminate corruption but ultimately used the army's coercive anti corruption organ NAB designed to eliminate corruption to buy corrupt politicians to form a pro military party PML Q ! The events of 9/11 proved that the Pakistani military junta had no balls to resist any American pressure and the post 9/11 Pakistani policy again proved a watershed since it divorced the army from Islamic ideology and adventurism which the military had used to secure its very personal trade union of generals agenda since 1958 ! The following are the salient features of Pakistan's power equation :-1- All political parties are now directly or indirectly manipulated by the army's intelligence agencies either by blackmail , by coercive policies of NAB for involvement in corruption cases or by confinement of various political leaders in jail .Nawaz Sharif and company are politically sidelined , financially on the retreat since their businesses are nearly blocked , and keen to compromise with athe army who no longer needs them. Benazir has no ideological agenda and wants power .She lobbies in the West that she is West's best bet against fundamentalism , an idea which no longer sells since General Musharraf has already proved that he is USA' s best collaborator .The religious MMA despite all its slogans of Islam is either in league with the military intelligence or blackmailed by the agencies or keen to enjoy the rewards of power ! 2-The judiciary has been bought by the army or reduced to impotence ! 3-The common man is in the grip of inflation and unemployment and is disillusioned with politics . 4-The smaller provinces i.e Baluchistan and Sindh are sidelined and can in the future incline towards secession at some stage ! 5- The army has destroyed or corrupted all major political and other institutions and is now fully involved in business and commercial activities of all types ! 6-The country's majority province Punjab is led by collaborator politicians who have agreed to be loyal to the military since their corruption has been condoned by the military !

7- The elite classes and the middle classes are by and large in favour of the military junta since it promises order and security . Out of this the following scenario emerges :-1- The USA can very conveniently strike any deal with Pakistan's military junta ignoring Pakistani masses aspirations and all political parties since no Pakistani party has any ideology or agenda less personal interest . 2-Within 5 years Pakistan would be as irrelevant to the region as Mexico is to North America or Bhutan to India. 3-The Pakistani politicians if need be would as easily compromise with any occupying power whether it is India or USA just to continue to enjoy their personal perks and privileges ! 4-At some stage the Pakistani military would lose so much of its credibility that it would no longer be able to control the situation . This is because within the next five years war would no longer be the favoured form of policy and the existing geopolitical situation would demand that India and Pakistan's huge military establishments are reduced . Conclusion If this was to be the future of a state created in the name of ideology,sacrificing millions in the name of religion , a united India was a better option ! If the Pakistani state was destined to be ruled by corrupt politicians and generals it would have been better if India was not divided ! But British imperial interest and the interests of the elite classes demaded otherwise ! Thus the whole farce in the name of religion ! Self deception par excellence !

5 August 2003

Pakistani Military Virtue’s Obituary A.H. Amin

[Editor's note: a kanal of land is an eight of an acre; for approximate conversions, use $1 = Rs 50 [actually Rs 56]. Clausewitz, the great philosopher of war described “Military Virtue” of an army as the corporate spirit which forms the bond between bravery , enthusiasm and espirit de corps. Clausewitz further defined military virtue as a quality which drives an army in a similar way as genius makes a military commander illustrious. Military virtue in words of Clausewitz could be generated in two ways, i.e by a succession of military campaigns and victories or by military training activity carried to the highest pitch. The more a general demanded of his troops in terms of dedicated military activity in peace, the surer he would be that his demands in war would be properly answered. In short military virtue is the fuel that is supposed to drive an army in war. With the above premise in mind and keeping in view our present history it can be safely concluded that military virtue of the Pakistan Army as an institution witnessed erosion from 1958 once the party started that made sons of Risaldar majors and Assistant Political Agents progress into industrial tycoons. It was a joy ride. Ascent of men who had one green suit to wear in words of General Tajammul into the tycoons of Pakistan . It was beginning of prosperity for few and first part of end of military virtue of a previously Spartan and clean military machine. The second military junta of Pakistan was led by the only army chief not from humble background and this ensured that the Pakistan Army was kept away from cheap consumerism and avaricious lust for real estate. The second great dinner party started in 1979 when thanks to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan a heaven sent opportunity arrived in shape of US military aid for the third military junta of Pakistan . Stingers were flown in by the daddy for the obedient son and these were sold in the open market by silent soldiers. Thus new business empires were created. The Zia junta as a whole did roaring business and the result is that at least four major tycoons of Pakistan today including present commerce minister have direct links with the Zia junta. Where does building 90 acres of a welfare colony known as Creek City with the cheapest shack for 6 Million Rupees fit in? Did the military junta began the occupation for such sublime purposes in 1958 or 1999? Where does developing of 500 Kanals of land in prime commercial real estate in Islamabad fit in? Is this the business of a navy that was miserably shut up in a mousehole in Karachi port in 1971 War? True that kickbacks may have been taken but at least Admiral Mansur bought a good submarine for the navy. But for whose welfare is the Navy undertaking a project 1500 kilometers from the nearest sea? Recently a petitioner went to Lahore high court and demanded justice. His facts were as following. Air Chief Marshal Abbas Khattak (retired) had received Rs180 million as kickbacks in the purchase of 40 old Mirage fighters Air Chief Marshal, Feroz Khan was suspected of receiving a five per cent commission on the purchase of 40 F-7 planes worth $271 million In 1996, the army bought 1,047 GS-90s at a cost of $20,889 per jeep. The market value of a jeep was only $13,000 at the time. According to sources in the NAB [Pakistan's anti-corruption agency Editor], some senior army officers had made Rs 510 million in the deal, the petitioner alleged. He alleged that 111 army men had got 400 plots in Bahawalpur and Rahimyar Khan districts at throwaway prices, allegedly paying Rs 47.50 per kanal as against the actual price of Rs15,000 to Rs20,000. Another 35,000 kanals were distributed among them.

As per details, each of the six respondents allegedly got 400 kanals in the Punjab while former NAB chairman Lt-Gen Mohammad Amjad was allotted a two-kanal plot on the Sarwar Road in Lahore for just Rs 800,000 - payable in installments over 20 years. The market value of this plot was Rs20 million. According to Mr Dogar, the petitioner, Gen Musharraf had acquired a commercial plot worth Rs 20 million at DHA in Lahore for just Rs100,000 - payable in 20 years. "As mentioned in the report of defense services director-general, a loss of Rs5 billion was incurred due to such allotments." He submitted in his petition that the army had awarded a contract for the purchase of 1,000 Hino trucks at $40,000 per unit while Gandhara Industries had offered trucks of the same specification for $25,000 apiece. In the purchase of 3,000 Landrovers in 1995, army officials allegedly received around Rs2 billion as kickbacks. "The army management at Wapda raised the power tariff 13 times during the last three years besides purchasing electric meters at Rs1,050 apiece against the open market price of Rs456, causing a loss of Rs1.65 billion to the national exchequer." The petitioner accused the former military regime of selling the Pak-Saudi Fertilizers for Rs7 billion and earning a Rs2 billion commission on the deal. "In 1996, the Pakistan Navy spent Rs13 million on installing air-conditioners at the Islamabad Golf Club without any justification." Apart from this petition some other major scams involving serving or ex members of the military junta are as following :-1- Ex army chief General Jahangir Karamat took kickbacks more than 20 Million USD from Ukrainian tank company for purchase of 300 Ukrainian tanks for Pakistan Army through a middleman colonel Mahmood , a brother tank corps officer of Karamat . Ex premier Nawaz Sharif sent present chief of the Water and Power authority major general Zulfiqar then serving in ISI to Ukraine/Azerbaijan to investigate the scam .Zulfiqar compiled complete report of the transaction and the bribes given and was rewarded with post of chiarman water and power and promotion to three star rank while Karamat was forced to ask for retirement based on the blackmail that if he did not do so he would be charged for corruption. 2-Many road contracts were given to a firm Hasnain Construction company without tendering by the ex communication minister General Qazi , again the same company was leased lucrative real estate in Lahore for a Golf Club under frontmanship of Palm Country Golf Club Singapore. 3-Prime commercial land developed in Defence Housing Authority Karachi was leased at dirt cheap rates to Macdonalds operated by Amin Lakhani by the then corps commander Karachi Lieut General Afzal Janjua . 4-The army 's coercive organ NAB struck various under the table deals with various individuals accused of high profile economic crime in addition to arm twisting NAB defaulters into joining present government , these include present prime minister Jamali and at least one fourth of all elected legislators. Where does the military virtue of a defense outfit stand in these circumstances?. Is 2003 not an year fit to publish its obituary? Our military virtue died , trampled below the treacherous wheels of overpriced military trucks and overpriced Chinese aircraft and defective Atlantique planes that crash in own waters because of dubious maintenance. Yes all this has served one important development purpose . Sons of ex subedars, ex clerks, ex assistant political agents have done well, climbing from relatively simple life styles to grand luxuries propelled by phenomenal assets. All came to clean the

Augean stables and all departed richer. The only exception was General Yahya Khan who whatever his drawbacks at least did not have the mind of a petty shop keeper. What began as an idealistic journey ends with the shady deals around creeks in Karachi which the navy failed to defend in 1971 and a military junta which wants to rule this country for eternity. Wrong forever on the throne! Truth forever on the scaffold! 1 July 2003 Tejh Singh of Meerut A. H. AMIN In 1807 one Khushaal Singh , son of a poor Brahman shopkeeper of Gaur Class came from Sardhana Pargana of district Meerut, then a part of Honourable English East India Company's territory to Lahore. Khushaal enrolled as a soldier in Ranjit Singh's army and ultimately rose to the rank of a Jemadar. The Hindustani Brahman became close to Ranjit Singh and also brought his nephew Tejh Ram from Meerut to Lahore in 1812. They both became Sikhs, soon, the uncle in 1812 and the nephew in 1816. By 1830s Tejh Singh was one of the senior Sikh Chiefs in the inner circle of Ranjit Singh having served in many key posts at Peshawar, Kashmir etc. Like many leaders of past and present Ranjit Singh feared a military coup and this made him have Hindustani Hindus like Tejh Singh in his army's highest ranks. It is an interesting fact of history that one of the greatest leaders of Punjab did not favour having a Punjabi chief in his highest army ranks for fear of a military coup. No surprise since it is another fact of history that all four army chiefs of Pakistan Army hailing from Punjab were selected by Sindhi or Pathan heads or political heads of state i.e. Tikka, Zia and Karamat by two Sindhi prime ministers i.e. Z.A. Bhutto and Benazir, while Asif Nawaz was selected by a Pathan president. Yet when war finally came in 1845-46 Tejhh Singh betrayed the Khalsa at the battles of Feroz Shah and Moodke refusing to attack a far weaker British force which also housed the then Governor General of India . This if done would have been a fatal blow to the British. Mallesson the famous author of the book "Decisive Battles of India" has singled out Feroz Shah and Moodke as a decisive battle in which Tejhh Singh's treachery was more fatal than that of Mir Jafar at Plassey. Tejhh Singh was well rewarded for his services by the English East India Company and his family's name was on the top in the famous book Punjab Chiefs published in 1909. The tradition of divide and rule, selecting key persons from political or ethnic minorities is ancient. The Mughals soon discarded their key Uzbek and Turk nobles soon after Humayun's demise in Akbar's reign and imported the Persian nobles with the hope that being from the Fiqh-I-Jafariya they would be a sectarian minority and thus a political guarantee against a coup by a Sunni Turani military commander. The folly was proved once the Persian Zulfiqar Khan allied with the Marathas against the Mughals and in the Battle of Karnal once the Persian Nawab of Oudh betrayed the Mughals leading to the sack of Delhi. Liaquat Ali Khan selected a junior and military record-wise incompetent officer Ayub Khan simply because Liaqat was involved in a political battle and did not want a Punjabi army chief. Pakistan payed the price in 1958. Ayub selected Yahya with the premise that Yahya belonged to the Qizilbash minority and Pakistan paid the price in 1971. Bhutto selected Zia because he thought that Zia was meek and docile and Pakistan is paying the price till to date. Nawaz selected Musharraf with the premise that

Musharraf being from a minority would be less dangerous than the Pathan Ali Quli and Pakistan paid the price in Kargil and Nawaz on 12th October. There is a Mianwali saying " Siana Kaaan , Gooo tay Digdaa" . Divide and rule is a dangerous policy. Back in 1980s the military intelligence pundits acted as the midwife of ethnic parties in Sindh in the hope that it would counter the PPP. Thus a Pandora's Box was opened and the military intelligence Don Quixotes have so far failed to control the genie they unleashed in Sindh in 1985-86. These ethnic parties may even outlast Pakistan the way geopolitical events are moving. The Afghan Mujahideen and their successors Taliban again represent an interesting lesson in the limitations of policy of divide and rule. Just to preserve a military regime facing a political challenge in 1980s and 1990s these groups specially the Taliban became an embarrassment for Pakistan and Pakistan paid the price of 10 Billion loss to economy in 2001. Presently the policy of dividing and destroying two of this country's largest parties the PPP and the PML is again dangerous. Whatever is left to present the military rulers any credible defiance is being bull dozed just in the interest of one man rule. Thus the PML Q and the PPP Patriots. How long would this policy of divide and rule go on. This is a phenomenal self-deception. How long would we be again and again betrayed by Zulfiqar Khans or Tejhh Singhs whatever their ethnicity sect or religion.

US Strategy of Dual Central Position 21 July 2003 by A. H. Amin While it is impossible to gauge exactly how USA intends pursuing its “ War for Total World Domination” geography provides some clues about future US intentions. Geography is as valid in warfare and strategy as it was 1500 years ago. Jomini one of the great thinkers in modern strategy narrates an incident, which is as relevant today as it was in 1806. At the end of a conference in 1806 before Jena Campaign in which Napoleon humbled Prussia (Germany) Jomini asked Napoleon if he might join Napoleon later at a place called Bamberg ! Napoleon who thought that his destination was secret was annoyed asked Jomini “ who told you that I am going to Bamberg ?” “The map of Germany, Sire and your campaigns of Marengo (1800) and Ulm (1805)” Jomini replied. While USA has not produced any Napoleon and in all probability would not produce any geography gives us many clues about future US designs . These clues are of interest for all concerned whether they are military analysts, Al Qaeda members, Third World military leaders, contractors,bankers, armaments dealers, real estate brokers etc. It appears that USA has adopted a Strategy which may be termed as one of “Dual central positions” ! One central region of operations in Afghanistan and now a second base of operations in Iraq. To supplement this base the USA has minor vassals like Qatar, Oman,Kuwait, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan etc ! Afghanistan was gained by leapfrogging using Pakistan as a temporary base of operations

during the period 2001-2002 . Afghanistan provides US with a choice of multiple strategic objectives ! It can threaten both Russia and China’s strategic underbelly as earlier discussed in an article published in PRAVDA by this scribe in 2001 ! It can threaten both Pakistan and Iran from Afghanistan in addition to dominating entire Central Asian Region . USA can also support actively a future Islamic Insurgency in Chinese Singkiang from Afghanistan with Central Asian Republics as conduits as well as an independent Kashmir which it has been championing since long ! Afghanistan can also be used as a base to support wars of insurgency or liberation in Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan and as a convenient base to support aerial strikes against Pakistan , in Baghdad style ! If Pakistan counters it with a WMD attack it would only be attacking brother Muslim Afghans ! Afghanistan combined with an independent Baluchistan at some stage would also ensure a secure US line of communication all the way from Chah Bahar and Gwadar to Central Asia . A new base to launch deep strategic forays in the heart of Russia and China isolating and cutting off both from the vast natural oil and gas reserves of Central Asia and severing the Russian line of communication with Oil and Gas rich Siberia ! All fits well as long as Afghanistan remains quiet .A convincing argument that the sooner China and Russia start taking interest in aiding the Afghan insurgents the better it would be for their future strategic survival ! It’s a question of survival for Russia an! d China ! Iraq is USA ‘s second central position in the region . Iraq can again be used to threaten multiple objectives in the region . The Muslim states harbouring anti US terrorist groups like Syria, Lebanon , Iran. Oil rich Arab states like Saudi Arabia in case a radical anti monarchist coup threatens the status quo in Saudi Arabia and Turkey in case the Islamists gain greater strength in Turkey in the next ten years ! Iraq can be ideally used to fix iran by inspiring and aiding a Kurdish insurgency in Iran . Discipline Turkey by encouraging Kurd separatism in case the Turkish Islamists gain greater resolution ! Dominate Middle East Oil in general firmly ensuring USA’ s overwhelming strategic control on worlds economy ! All is well as long as USA meets minimum resistance but all may not be at USA’s feet in case Syria remains defiant , Iran actively assists Iraqi Shiites and the Arab masses finally decide to remove the shackles that have enslaved them for the last fifty years ! While USA’s strategy of Dual Central Positions is outwardly sound and subtle , it has germs of defeat . It appears that initially Afghanistan may pose serious problems for USA unless it arrives at a neat strategic solution with regard to attainment of its strategic objectives for which it has occupied Afghanistan namely “ Final Solution of Pakistan’s WMD capability” and “ Domination of Central Asia and Western Iran”. While Iraq was thought to be the centre of gravity of anti US/Israeli low intensity war Pakistan despite a docile military regime is regarded as centre of gravity of Islamic military resurgence. Afghanistan is merely the region where Islamist forces based in Pakistan practice and train ! Afghanistan therefore is not a US objective itself but a staging area to deal with a strategic objective (s) i.e. Pakistan ,Iran ,Central Asia , China , Russia etc . Pakistan has to be neutralised despite the fact that Musharraf is USA’s blue eyed because it posseses WMD capability and stands in between Chinese Singkiang Central Asia and USA ! Iran has to be neutralised because it is ideologically against USA and is a base of anti US/Israeli low intensity warrior groups ! In this case Afghanistan the base area itself can prove dangerous for the USA ! Here mother nature seriously challenges US technology! There are no deserts like Iraq where US airpower can strike at will ! There are no big urban targets like Baghdad capture of which can lead to the collapse of the whole house !

There are no docile vassal states here like Kuwait and Jordan from where operations can be mounted .One side contains Pakistan’s tribal area which the Britishers failed to pacify in 100 years .One side contains Iran which cannot be overawed like Pakistan by one phone call . The area in the north is cordoned by the Russian Army which has no love lost with USA and which remembers with grief its 14,000 men lost thanks to US Stingers and US aid in 1979 . Therefore Afghanistan the! Western Dual strategic base of USA would be more of a liability than a blessing. Any serious US move which threatens the strategic balance in the region may bring China and Russia actively into the arena and continued sniping on part of anti US Afghan forces keeps the Americans on the hop ! Iraq as it stands today may prove initially easier to hold than Afghanistan but all in this case depends on Arab masses ! If they resign to their fate they will be reduced to sub humans and be ruled by foreigners as they were ruled in the Roman and Ottoman Turk times . If they resist and not overawed they may survive with honour and dignity ! So much for geography and US designs ! War is the province of the unknown as Clausewitz states and Low Intensity War i.e. War in the Shadows is far more complex than winning the Second World War with overwhelming industrial might ! There are no Hiroshima’s or Nagasakis in this region ! The area where the USA is fighting its new war is vast ! More vast than USA’s air power capability! More rugged than Vietnam ! More diverse than any other continent ! It may not be well equipped but races which inhabit it cannot be wiped out like the Americans wiped out the Apaches,Sioux and many other Indian tribes ! It is a war of civilisations but one in which one civilisation will be pitched against at least three different civilisations ! This war for Mackinder’s Heartland would not be fought in Iraq or Afghanistan alone but in all parts of the world including all major US and European cities ! This war does not have a front or rear or centre and no single centre of gravity ! We hope tha! t the Americans would brush up their strategic thought and knowledge of grand strategy and fight a short war and go with respect and grace rather than a decade long war which may prove to be USA’ s culminating point in the classic Clausewitzian sense ! A. H Amin is a writer , journalist , ex editor of Defence Journal(Pakistan), ex Editor of Globe (Pakistan); author of Indo Pak Wars from 1947 to 1971, Man's Role in History and Land of the Pure (short stories). He contributed above article toMedia Monitors Network (MMN) from Sindh, Pakistan. Source: by courtesy & © 2003 A. H. Amin by the same author:

9 Aug 2003

Musharaf Sir Syed and appeasing the West A.H Amin

The foundation of the present Indo Pak Muslim leadership can be straight traced to loyalist Muslims known as “ Mutiny Worthies” i.e those Muslim classes that collaborated with the British in the War of Independence of 1857 ! Sir Syed Ahmad Khan widely regarded as a major Muslim leader ,compared with Musharraf by some columnists recently was a traitor to the Muslim cause in 1857 , guiding British forces entering Rohailkhand via Rurki from North West and in the consequence winning special pension for life of 200 per mensem , a khilat of one cap of four cones which he wore in public , one gashwara or outer turban ,one jacket , one pair of shawls , one jugha or coat , one pearl necklace , one sword etc ! All for being a most loyal servant of English East India Company in 1857-58 ! Pakistan’s first prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan grandfather protected British lines of communication atKarnal , another prime minister Noon’s ancestors supplied cavalry which fought for the British at Delhi , leader of opposition Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan’s Babar Pathan ancestors rendered active support to British against Hindustani soldiers of 68 and 69 NI at Multan , all these facts duly recorded in the famous book Punjab Chiefs ! There is no denying the fact that Sir Syed whatever good he later did was a traitor to the Muslim cause in 1857 ! And he was rewarded for that winning a membership to the Viceroy’s council and the award of “ Sir” for many services which also included opposing the All India Congress from which Mr Jinnah the founder of Pakistani state began his political career ! Whatever anyone may assert simple historical facts prove that Sir Syed began his ascent into fame as a British tout ! This was known in 1857 and his house in Delhi was sacked by Muslim freedom fighters at Delhi for collaboration with the British as per his British biographer Graham ! It has been hypothesized that later the Syed felt guilty in his subconscious for collaborating with the British in 1857 and his later educational efforts were a lifelong process of atonement ! Whatever the case Sir Syed was a man who collaborated with the British like his dear friend Nawab Mohammad Hayat of Wah who was British general Nicholson’s orderly officer at Siege of Delhi in 1857 and later presided over the 1888, 1889 and 1890 sessions of Sir Syed’s Mohammadan Educational Conference ! This man Hayat who was British general Nicholsons most faithful native orderly officer or native aide de camp as he was later called in order to add dignity to his Nawabi title was a major actor in Sir Syed’s Aligarh Movement and a trustee of MAO College Aligarh ! The landlords

of Aligarh including the Sherwanis who to this day supply Muslim members of parliament to India ’s Lok Sabha were again Sir Syed’s most important comrades ! Since Sir Syed is being compared with General Musharraf who usurped power on 12th October 1999 it is important to once again analyse Sir Syed’s thinking and arrive at conclusions whether it is still relevant to the cause of Indo Pak Muslims or not ! Essentially Sir Syed was advocate of a policy that stated that Muslims must be loyal to the British rulers , stay away from politics , concentrate on acquiring education and bargain for special rights from the British as a special interest group the same way as the Hindu Rajputs had bargained with the Mughals earlier ! Now for a moment one may analyse the situation of this period ! The British had crushed the war of independence of 1857 and were occupying and ruling Indo Pak ! The Muslims were not educated and lagging behind in education ! The approach of Sir Syed was a short term strategy and was later revised ! Muslims later entered active politics , joined congress including Jinnah , even politically allied themselves with the congress in 1919-21 which Mr Jinnah left not because it was a Hindu dominated party but because it favoured extra constitutional ways of fighting the British of which Mr Jinnah did not approve ! Even in case of education Sir Syed’s role has been exgaggerated ! It has been propagated that had there been no Sir Syed the Muslims have remained an illiterate lot ! Statistics fortunately do not prove this assertion ! In a survey done for twenty years between 1882 and 1902 a period of twenty years , it was found that Sir Syed’s MAO College had contributed 220 out of total of 1,184 Muslim graduates from all five universities of India or about 18.5 % ! This means that even if Sir Syed had died fighting for the Muslim cause at Bijnor in 1857 Indo Pak Muslims would still have been an educated lot ! But here we are in Pakistan giving all the credit to Aligarh which was just one of the many institutions ! Iqbal never went to Aligarh , Jinnah was a product of Sindh Madrassa , and while Aligarh may have produced many Muslim leaders it also produced Ghulam Mohammad and Ayub Khan who destroyed Pakistan ’s political institutions ! One however may state that Aligarh played a major role in the education of Hindustani Muslims who formed more than three fourth of Aligarh ’s students from its foundation till 1947 ! But it would be unfair to forget Government College Lahore that produced Iqbal,Islamia College Peshawar,Islamia College Lahore and Sindh Madarsah or Syed Amir Ali who had nothing to do with Aligarh and yet played a major role in British Indian Muslim politics and education ! The circumstances which Musharraf faces have little similarity with those of Sir Syed ! In 1857 the Muslims were a subdued lot ! They had rebelled against the British in the area between Karnal and Benares and their brethren in Punjab and Frontier had collaborated with the British in defeating them ! History of the Frontier Force records that two Muslim soldiers one Pathan and one Punjabi were awarded the Indian Order of Merit for killing the freedom fighter Bakht Khan at Nawabganj in Oudh in 1858 ! Most of the old units of Pakistan Army also played a major role in defeating 1857 in collaboration with British like they are now playing in defeating the war on terror although no one knows who will win this war finally ! Pakistan today is not an occupied country like India of 1857 ! It has nuclear weapons , a standing army whose chief could not stand once threatened by telephone ! Today education is not the problem of Pakistan ! We have too many educated people , many driving

taxis and many doing petty jobs to make the ends meet ! Pakistan’s problem is that it is still ruled by the descendants of the same class that collaborated with the British in 1857 and from 1857 to 1947 , whether they are Lehgaris,Noons,Tiwanas,Syeds,Bhuttos or any one that matters ! The army that rules Pakistan was essentially a British recruited mercenary force which was staunchly loyal to the British whether fighting against Muslims in 1857, in the pre 1947 tribal areas , at Jallianwalla Bagh and now to the Americans in Afghanistan or Iraq ! If sepoy Jahan Khan could be hired for seven rupees a month , today the Americans can hire this army for may be 1,000/- USD per month ! Sir Syed in his zeal to please the British justified British attack on Afghanistan in 1878-80 i.e the Second Afghan War ! Again he justified the British aggression against Egypt i.e bombardment of Alexandria in 1882 ! He advised the British to follow the policy of divide and rule and not to have Muslims and Hindus in one unit since he felt that by keeping both in one unit both communities had come to understand each other and thus rebelled against the British in 1857 ! The problem of today’s Pakistan is that the military junta, the civil servants, feudals and business interests have united out of common interest and are exploiting this country for the last fifty years ! In the process they aligned themselves with USA in the process getting massive aid most of which was either pilfered or went into defaulted loans and the common man gained little ! Pakistan ’s problem today is not Kashmir , not even India but the civil-military clique that is exploiting this country ! Who galvanized the common man in name of Jihad which today Musharraf condemns as terrorism ! Pakistan ’s military junta ! What was the motivation of this junta then to wage Jihad ! US dollars coming to Afghanistan against USSR ! Today the same military junta has made a U turn because today they are getting dollars not to wage Jihad ! As far as assertions that Musharraf is a patriot acting in best interests of Pakistan , all that one may state is that this assertion will only be proved by the test of time ! So far Muslim politics in Pakistan and before 1947 has been dominated by collaborators ! Initially they collaborated with the British and now with USA , justifying collaboration in the name of patriotism ! All acted in the best interest of Islam and all did well ! At least materially ! If Musharraf is sincere about Pakistan he may like to study Malayasia's Mahatir who is doing a great service to his country without going to the lowest depths of servility in pleasing USA ! Economies are not developed by US aid or by loaning troops as mercenaries but by providing true leadership ! Armies alone cannot reform societies and most of the maladies that afflict Pakistan are not because of British military occupation of this country but four occupations of this country by its very own army !

The Future of Indo Pak Conflict 21 August 2003 While cosmetically and outwardly it appears that Indo Pak relations are warming up , essentially new realities are emerging . Cardinal factors of the new emerging scenario are as following :--

1Musharraf regime struggling for survival against political parties who have little or no ideology is surviving thanks to USsupport which it managed since 9/11. 2US support has also forced Musharraf regime to make compromises like de-escalating the proxy war in Kashmir , rein in extremist elements , de-escalate the nuclear and missile programme etc. 3US aim is to essentially employ Pakistani military regime of Musharraf as a dirt cleaning minor tactical garbage collector , while rewarding Musharraf with short term aid inputs which would not alter the strategic balance in the region . 4The USA at one point in time would either attempt to go for complete denuclearization of Pakistan or Balkanisation in case denuclearization does not proceed as it desires.Ideally the USA would like to retain Musharraf for this job ! Musharraf as he stands is an asset not only for USA but for India also . Pakistan’s possible Balkanisation may mean a greater Punjab in the north , a Pathan autonomous state linked with Afghanistan in the Northwest , two states in the south I.e a US satellite Baluchistan andSindh with two possible divisions , a Mohajir free port in Karachi as the top US collaborator satellite in the region and an independent Sindhi state in the hinterland . 5Reducing Pakistan to size or denuclearizing it would not be an easy task since Musharraf alone cannot accomplish the job .Thus the USA may maneuver at some stage when Musharraf and Pakistan has lost its utility to do the job in league with India .This would mean that India may launch proxy wars in Sindh and Baluchistan already alienated from the Pakistani Federal Government because of Musharrafs policies . 6Indo pak conflict is now an inevitable fact of history .Both sides have been sharpening knives since 1971 .1971 was an unfinished war and India had not achieved any of its objectives .Converesly an undeclared desire to avenge 1971 lingers in the Pakistani psyche .Two forces keep the conflict alive , the Pakistaani military establishment whose survival lies in some type of confrontation with India and Indias political problems of coalition government which force Indian parties to adopt a militant anti Pakistan attitude. 7Cynically the best US solution for the Indo Pak problems lies in making India do the dirty job of reducing Pakistan to size after Pakistan has been used up as a mid term tactical condom to do the dirty job of dealing with Islamic militancy and the dirty job of mercenary soldiering in Iraq and Iran ! 8The Americans are obsessed with petty parsimony and while they lose many billions in Quixotic ventures overseas they will not give Pakistan a strong 10 Billion package which may make Pakistan a more stable and responsible country . 9Indo Pak conflict may take following forms in the future :--

a. A series of proxy wars fought simultaneously in Kashmir,Sindh ,Baluchistan ,NWFP’s tribal areas . b. A surgical nuclear strike on Pakistan ’s nuclear assets with Indo-IsraeliUS cooperation .This may be one of the cheaper US preferred solutions .Already viruses like Shaukat Aziz are in the Pakistani body organism and there may be more in the military hierarchy . c. A conventional war between India and Pakistan in case hitherto unknown changes take place in Pakistan’s military hierarchy , whose chances are low but cannot be ruled out , like a coup , or a change of command following an accidental impromptur high key assassination like Indira Gandhi . Conclusion Men are essentially irrational creatures ! Musharraf is only a mean mortal and one of the tools in the great global geopolitical game ! While his policy of divide and rule has served him well in the short run , his policies have divided Pakistan and will ultimately lead to the Balkanisation of Pakistan. The whole process may take anything from two to ten years but as things are moving Pakistan will not be able to preserve its nuclear deterrent for long unless unforeseen accidents happen !

2ND SEP 2003 Russia's Strategic Opportunity A.H Amin Many years earlier when the old USSR had stumbled into Afghanistan the USA had manipulated the Muslims of Afghanistan and many other parts of the world to wage a Jihad against USSR ! Some 13,310 Soviet soldiers and airmen , many of them Muslims from Central Asia and Caucasus were killed , thanks to sophisticated weapons supplied to the Afghan Mujahideen by USA ! 4,730 dead in 1980 , 1981 and 1982 ,1984 in the year 1982 , and 2,343 in 1984 !1000 Stinger Missiles and 250 launchers were provided by USA against Russian aerial power ! The smugglimg of Heroin in USSR and to the Red Army was institutionalised as a policy to weaken the resolve of the Soviets ! When all this was achieved the Afghans were dumped by USA and today US aerial bombing in Afghanistan thanks to the likes of daisy cutters etc is a deadlier US gift to Afghans ! Today the USA hunts the same Mujahideen used by it to fight against USSR like partridges in Paktia and Spin Baldak ! The Quixotic US venture in Iraq stands out as a grand strategic opportunity for Russia to undo the unipolar world order and avenge the Afghan War ! All that is required is a statesman with Lenin's strategic insight and coup d oeil to start a grand strategic process of revival and reassertion ! While the USSR involvement in Afghanistan was essentially a haphazard hastily initiated affair to assist a pro Soviet regime , US invasion of Iraq strategically speaking is a well planned venture which has the potential to destabilise Russia and many other power centres by dominating the Middle East Oil and to stage further adventurist moves against Russia' soft under belly i.e the Central Asian Republics etc.Thus once Russia enters the arena as an active player assisting anti US forces waging a just war of liberation against USA it would not only be guarding its own strategic interests but also gain the good will of the Islamic world whose masses are led by tinpot dictators and kings who have already literally prostrated themselves in front of USA symbolically changing the direction of their grand strategic geopolitical Kaba from Mecca to Washington D.C . Today the USA is stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan in a far more irrevocable way than USSR in Afghanistan ! This is the ideal moment for Russia and China to act as friends of freedom fighters in Iraq and Afghanistan ! Bury the dead past , strike a deal with Chechnyans and settle strategic scores with a power which has a major role in demise of USSR ! Sentiments of the populace,terrain , global strategic situation and logistics all favour the Russian role ! Iran can be the frontline state similar to Pakistan ! By striking another deal with Tajiks and Uzbeks partitioning Afghanistan the Russians can also arrive at a strategic understanding with the Pashtun anti US forces ! Today the Russians are no longer Godless communists but Christian people of the

book like Muslims ! By aiding the anti US Iraqi resistance the Russians would be having a guaranteed share in a post US liberated Iraq and a more democratic post monarchist Arab world ! While the Soviet Union lost many billion dollars in Afghanistan , the total costs varying from 20 to 80 billion USD here in Iraq and Afghanistan by a mere half a billion USD per year the Russians can achieve miracles in turning the scales against anti US forces ! 2003 is Russia and any other power which wants to undo the unipolar world orders golden opportunity ! The US occupation of Iraq must not succeed ! If it succeeds unipolar world order would become a permanent reality for at least half a century !

STRATEGIC BRILLIANCE 10 SEP 2003

Musharrafs conduct in the post 9/11 scenario has been described by some observors as an outstanding strategic decision and as his finest moment ! Whether this statement originates from a desire to please or practice suave sycophancy or from conviction is debatable !However there is no denying of the fact that business and writing are promisciusly mixed by some scribes , thus writing reduced to an exercise of doing the right thing for the wrong reasons ! It has also been asserted by a similar breed of analysts that Pakistan's Afghan policy was bankrupt while the same analysts were hailing the Taliban as a respectable and potent element while Pakistan's military junta viewed them favourably ! Since this brief article is not concerned directly with sommersualts of certain analysts we will not delve into details of their conduct or motivation ! In the situation following 9/11 Musharraf was presented with a very mildly veiled crudely worded threat that in case he did not capitulate to US demands USA would treat Pakistan as a belligerent and Pakistan would face its wrath ! Historically this was something similar to Hitlers ultimatum to Poland to surrender Danzig in 1939 or Yezids ultimatum to Imam Hussain to accept Yazids claim to kingship at Karbala ! Musharraf submitted and USA had its way !If this is considered strategic brilliance then " surrender" is the finest military virtue in a military commander ! True that Pakistan was given a breather , a tactical breather one may say in historic terms for being a good vassal and Pakistans' elite classes got another long break to enjoy the riches which they have accumulated since 1947 and before 1947 by collaborating with the British masters ! A decision is strategically or tactically brilliant where it is taken in face of tremendous odds and a military commander defies tremendous odds emerging victorious finally in the tangible sense by winning or preserving his force or in the intangible and immortal sense despite tangibly losing the battle like Imam Hussein at Karbala , like the Poles in 1939 or like Tipu Sultan at Mysore ! However martyrdom is not one of the significant attributes of the military commanders of the Indo Pak Subcontinent ! Their brilliance in strategy operational or grand consists in having been directing staff at National Defence College or in having held plush military appointments ! In WW Two 33 % German generals died in action ! Compare this with Indo Pak ! In 1947-48 war the seniormost officer in Pakistan Army who died in action was a captai9n barring Major Sloan of Engineers an Anglo who died in mine clearing ! Indian Army lost some colonels and brigadiers also one being a Muslim ! Compare Kargil with conduct of Field Marshal Lord Roberts in WW One in France ! In Kargil battle no officer beyond major was killed in action while most of the arm chair strategists who planned it did not go beyond Skardu ! Field Marshal Lord Roberts was an Indian Army officer and an ex British C in C ! At a very old age above 80 he went to France to inspect Indian troops fighting in Flanders ! When he came to know that Indian troops were not having great coats despite extreme cold Roberts refused to wear his own great coat , caught cold and died ! When Napolen merely violated Prussia's neutrality by marching through Ansbach Enclave Prussia picked up the gauntlet , challenged Napoleonic France despite immense odds against Prussia and in consequence was overrun by the French in 1806 ! However the final Prussia which emerged as a liberated country was far stronger and emerged as one of Europe's greatest powers ! Here we have the supreme lesson in appeasement timidity and docility and apparently reasonable men hail it as an example of boldness in strategic decision making !

Leadership or strategic brilliance is not about moving in a macho camouflaged jacket in your own country addressing civilians but in defying tremendous odds in battle ! Great military leaders did not launch their young soldiers and officers into valleys of death and then pleaded their civilian prime minister to proceed to DC on a mercy mission ! Strategic brilliance does not consist in using another neighbouring Muslim nation as cannon fodder and then stabbing them ! Setting a precedent after which no Afghan worth his salt would ever think of joining or supporting Pakistan ! If Musharraf's U turn was a brilliant strategic decision , one may ask who reaped most of the benefits from Pakistan's Afghan policy ! Surely the military junta and the generals sons today part of Musharraf's government ! One may also question that if Pakistan 's Afghan policy was a three decade diasaster or a blessing ! If USSR had not stepped in Afghanistan would USA have tolerated Pakistan's nuclear programme for three decades ! Would Pakistan have gained sophisticated military hardware and above all would Pakistan have been saved by a U turn which furnished the strategic pivot employing which Musharraf took his brilliant or meek U turn ! Had there been no Afghan war the USA would have reduced Pakistan to size by 1980 ! Already they had financed the 1977 agitation to remove Bhutto because of Pakistan's nuclear programme and would have pushed on to denuclearise Pakistan by 1980 had there been no USSR invasion of Afghanistan ! Even today Pakistan is important for USA not because Musharraf is brilliant but because some people crashed into twin trade towers on 9/11 and because a man called Saddam created an opposition to USA for which today Bush needs Pakistani troops in Iraq as cannon fodder ! To act as tactical garbage collectors ! To act as pointers and retriever hounds in the bloody fox hunt ! One may term US policy towards Pakistan in the present scenario as a strategic pause underatken while USA deals with more immediate threats like Al Qaeda the Taliban and Iraq ! The sharpening of knives proceeds albeit silently to denuclearise Pakistan which the USA would attempt when the Talibans and Al Qaeda stop bugging it ! Pakistan's safetry ironically has been provided not because of Musharrafs starategic meekness but because of self sacrifice of countless unnamed warriors who died in Afghanistan ,Kargil ,Kashmir and Iraq ! The longer USA remains bogged down in the War against terrorism the better is for Pakistan's survival as a respectable state ! USA's cosmetic friendship with Pakistan is ony a strategic suspension of action till the favoureable moment arrives to denuclearise Pakistan with Indo-Israeli US cooperation ! This friendship exists not because of Mushararfs strategic brilliance or meekness but because of peculiar historical geopolitical circumstances ! Tommorrow the same analysts would verily hail Musharrafs strategic meekness to denuclearise Pakistan as another strategic decision ! Sycophancy goes on and life brings all the bounties for the practitioners of controlled sycophyancy !

USA’S PAKISTAN STRATEGY 16 SEPTEMBER 2003 It appears that only two major forces are left in this world , the USA and those who have decided not to accept US hegemony based on conventional military power and a massive economic base ! The present USA as it stands today is the culmination of a nearly century long struggle for world mastery originating from 1914 ! While tangibly USA dominates the world since 1990 following demise of USSR , since 2001 USA's unipolar dominance has come increasingly under challenge from tangibly smaller but intangibly stronger forces , represented by Islamic extremists ! Pakistan constitutes the most decisive albeit silent pivotal front where USA is fighting its war for final mastery or survival ! Pakistan with its WMD potential , rough terrain and peculiar geopolitical position is without any doubt the geopolitical heartland of global anti US forces ! Thus USA has a definite " Pakistan Strategy" to fight this war ! Since outright war waged with an open intention to destroy anti US forces is not practicable in the present circumstances USA is following a " Multiple Axis" strategy in case of Pakistan ! On the economic plane they have a US citizen holding the finance ministry , with a concrete agenda to reduce the vast " Black Economy" which has enabled Pakistan in the past to survive US sanctions , gather economic intelligence , and to monitor utiliastion of funds ! In the Intelligence plane US penetration has multiplied with the pretext of waging war on terror,sharing of intelligence etc ! At the highest political level USA has a strong leverage position in manipulating Pakistan's military junta which is engaged in a political struggle with political parties and anti US Islamist groups and badly needs US support ! On the external/neighbouring countries plane USA has support of India and Afghan governments which can be employed to armtwist Pakistan's military regime, with direct military action the former case and by covert action in the latters case ! Musharraf himself confessed that his support to USA was directly linked to avoiding an open Indian-US Front against Pakistan ! US strategy against Pakistan may be conveniently divided into three parts , a short term scenario of cooperation in which Pakistani government acts as US vassal , in the war on terror ,rounding up suspects , providing intelligence ,supplying troops for policing US conquered possessions , act as a potential US base for operations against Iraq etc ! This short term period may extend from one to three years !This is a temporary strategic suspension of action ! This would be followed by an interim period in which operations may be staged to denuclearise Pakistan with Indo-Israeli cooperation in

case Pakistan's military regime or its successor political regime does not voluntarily submit to US ultimatum ! The third stage involves open US support to India to act as its junior partner in the region , with a reduced Pakistan with a strong US presence ,bases in Gwadar and Karachi and communication links with Central Asia from where USA would tranfer oil and gas to the sea via Pakistani or Iranian ports ! An important part of US strategy is intense pressure on Pakistan to share its data particularly demographic data and to extend police control in hitherto remote areas so that no area escapes US scrutiny ! Thus the immense growth of credit cards , leasing companies , car finances , NADRA , computerised passports , police presence in Tribal areas of NWFP and Baluchistan and increased border patrolling ! Since the greatest danger to USA lies in the minds and persons of men who can hide and plan without being detected by electronic or police observation this information facet of the US War is the most important part of the game plan ! Interestingly it constitutes the weakest link in the whole chain ! All efforts by Pakistani government undertaken to open up the remote areas to US surveillance and to bring all activities of individuals under state scrutiny would directly lead to a clash with tribal forces and secret groups which have operated in Pakistans Western provinces for centuries ! This in turn may lead to an armed insurrection in Baluchistan and Tribal Areas of NWFP ! All this neatly fits in with Indian plans since any proxy war in Baluchistan and NWFP would be in Indian strategic interest ! The Police Act of 2000 of Musharraf regime is worse than Indian Police Act of 1860 and its extension into tribal areas of NWFP and Baluchistan would be resisted by tribesman and the local tribal leaders ! The anti money laundering policies of Shaukat Aziz are designed to help US economic interests and already the Western Union is doing good business in money transfers ! In addition messrs NADRA's ulterior aim is to make Pakistan an open book for the CIA and DIA , where no anti US leader can hide and where no anti US activity can take place ! Here interests of Musharraf regime and the USA neatly meet on a converging axis ! Increased state control suits the military junta as well as USA ! Another important US ally are the political forces in Pakistan ! They are as ready to sell themselves to USA as Musharraf ! Thus Benazir Bhutto has repeatedly offered herself as USA's best candidate to fight USA's war against terror ! Similarly Pakistan's clerics are again potential US allies provided they are given a share in the power ! They are distinct from the more extreme Wahabi or Shiite brand of Islam which is more revolutionary in outlook and more anti US by ideology ! The vast bulk of members of Pakistan's National Assembly are descendants of a class which was loyal to the British before 1947 , were loyal to the Pakistani military junta after 1947 and would be loyal to USA or any other regional power in case of Pakistan's demise as an independent country ! Thus ironically well wishers of Pakistan may not constitute the majority in Pakistan's present National Asembly ! Those who can be armtwisted by coercive state organs like NAB ,MI and ISI can also be coerced by CIA ,RAW etc ! Thus Pakistan's

sovereignty may be safer under smaller but organised patriotic groups , who are not overawed by conventional threats ! Musharraf's peculiar policies have already divided Pakistans provinces thanks to unnecessary emphasis on Kalabagh Dam and on extending police control in Baluchistan ! A house divided against itself is not a very dependable structure and that is exactly where Musharraf's policies are leading ! The economic situation remains dismal despite rhetoric of phenomenal economic recovery and unemployment constitutes good fuel for increased fires of frustration and resentment which are academies of terrorism and hatred ! Poverty as Aristotle said is the parent of revolution and crime ! The actions of the hounds fighting the so called war against terror are such that retaliation remains the only guarantee for survival of the anti US forces under attack ! The USA and its lackeys are feeding the world with illusions , so that men no longer resist tyrnanny and agents of FBI,CIA,BATF ann Homeland Security have their way picking anyone from any part of the globe ! Liberty is under graver threat since 9/11 than it was ever before and the only security lies in undoing the unipolar world order ! During the vast bulk of Pakistan's history it is the civil-military-industrial-feudal elite who have ruled this country ! The finest proof of this partnership is the Musharraf-Chaudhry alliance which illustrates how Pakistan's military junta is most comfortable in acting in tandem with known financially corrupt politicians as long as they tow the military junta's line and serve its interests ! The reassuring part in the whole bleak affair is the fact that history does not move in straight lines ! Neither USA nor Musharraf can make history as they please ! The current of history is influenced by multiple as well as mysterious forces ! The boat can be rocked by unknown guests who emerge from unforeseen directions ! One odd sentry and one odd incident can bring a well oiled and sophisticated machine to a grinding halt ! The friction of geopolitics cannot be overcome by pedants found in District of Columbia or in Islamabad's bastions of intellectual pedantry !

8 OCT 2003 THE GATHERING STORM Published in Statesman Peshawar The Gathering Storm

In October 1947 Mr Jinnah initiated a strategic masterstroke known as “ Operation Curzon” under which for brigade groups i.e Razmak Brigade Group , Bannu Brigade Group,Wana Brigade Group and

Gardai Brigade Group were withdrawn from the Trans Indus Tribal Areas later more familiarly known as FATA etc ! Operation Curzon constituted a brilliant culmination of a senseless Frontier Policy dating from Mughal times and inherited by the British from the Sikhs in 1849 during which many billions were lost in pointless Frontier Expeditions and in construction of innumerable picquets , roads , and forts !

In 2002 Pakistan came back to square one once pedants spurred by USA reversed the entire brilliant policy initiated by Jinnah ! The tribesman who had greeted the withdrawing Pakistan Army Brigades during Operation Curzon with harmless playful sniping are today all set to resist an unjust policy initiated by an unelected military junta !

If the entire tract between Draband and Malakand was a land of death for the occupying Mughal , Sikh or British Indian Army , sadly history is witnessing a repetition in 2003 ! What was won by an elected founding father has been driven into a bottomless quagmire by unelected men who govern without accountability reinforced by Draconian coercive powers of arbitrarily initiated laws like NAB ordinance !

Unfortunately vision and forethought are not the hallmarks or cardinal attributes of the personality of many of the know all experts sitting on the pinnacles of organizations dealing with strategy and intelligence ! Conversely intelligence has been reduced to serving US policy interests and into coercing politicians to change party loyalties ! Thus the gathering storm of dissent and possible armed insurrection on Pakistan’s Western borders is naievely underestimated by pedants who as some great Victorian poet stated have never set a squadron in the field nor know the division of battle more than a spinster !

Under the prextext of fighting the war on terror and with the naieve aim of acquiring limited military aid an idea is being rationalized that Pakistan’s regular army must take over the tribal areas of NWFP and Baluchistan ! Outwardly neat and theoretically sound as far as staying inside cosy sand model rooms in military schools or colleges of instructions or in briefing halls in high sounding agencies dealing with silent warfare and information wars , the whole idea is dangerous, explosive and essentially counter productive !

The Tribal areas of Pakistan had been a blessing for this country in war ! In 1965 and 1971 Wars Pakistan Army could forget about their Western Borders ! In the Afghan war of 1979-99 these areas were a strategic asset ! Now alas some experts by virtue of institutional power bull dozed into practice

out of short term vision and running after petty awards are all set to initiate a dangerous policy which may prove to be the Spanish Ulcer of Pakistan Army !

Similarly in Baluchistan the same thinking is being advanced and Pakistans policy pundits are all set to introduce the police system which has already miserably failed in settled areas of Pakistan ! Part of the motivation of this naieve decision springs from personal ambitions of some high officials who are unhappy with having only 5 % control over their provinces total area !

While these pedantic decisions are put into practice another fatal combination is full effect ! Once again the Indian RAW and the old elements of Afghan KHAD are combining to wage a deadly low intensity war in Pakistan’s Western Borders ! It is common knowledge that the Afghans are the largest and most invisible minority in Pakistan with strong presence in key economic sectors like transport construction etc .Thus recruits for sabotage are no problem in any likely covert operation ! Ironically many are daily launched by this deadly combine like the sectarian assassinations !

Wars in this age are essentially low intensity wars ! It is logical that Indians would seek their strategic redress of grievances of losses suffered in Kashmir in NWFP and Baluchistan and in Sindh ! Ironically their task has been made easier by Pakistani military junta’s naieve policies in NWFP and Baluchistan’s tribal areas !

Pakistan has already come to grief in 1971 ! Thanks to naieve policies of the military usurper Ayub which alienated the Bengalis ! The next low intensity war may be fatal ! In 1971 there was West Pakistan to fall back upon ! In the next conflict the existence of what remains of Pakistan may be at stake ! Baluchistan and NWFP can absorb thrice as many Pakistani troops as Indian Held Kashmir can absorb !

Lastly it would be most appropriate to quote Tolstoy about the harms that military juntas inflict ; The military juntas are like entities which sit on a man’s back , choking him and making him carry them and yet assure themselves that they are very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means—except by getting off his back ! Allah be praised !

y your article

10/25/03 Reply ▼
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The Statesman
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To pavocavalry@hotmail.com dear sir your first article (Oct 11) caused a stir in GHQ, therefore it is not possible for us to publish "Pakistan's Strategic Dilemma" hope you will understand thanx and regards ghulam mustafa the statesman Peshawar

Pakistan's Strategic Dilemma The creation of Pakistan and division of India in 1947 into two states i.e a Muslim and a Hindu ruled state was an accident of history stranger than any fiction ! Pakistan was created not because the Hindustani Muslims loved Islam or because the Punjabi Muslims loved Sindhis or Pathan Muslims or the Baloch Muslims but essentially because Muslims of all ethnicities feared Hindu domination ! The essential attribute of the whole exercise was the fact that the Hindu was feared becasue he was numerically larger and intellectually and financially dominating ! Thus the Muslim higher and middle classes combined out of class motivation , the higher feudal classes fearing land reforms ,the middle classes viewing their chances in the job market as dim once in competition with the Hindu and Sikh ! Both these classes galvanised the Muslim masses in the name of religion and Mr Jinnah the highly westernised Muslim ironically became the champion ofIslam ! Immediately after the creation of the new state ,the majority Muslim ethnic community the Bengalis realised that the minority West wing of thenew country had no intention of letting the Bengalis rule as per natural rules of democracy ! Traditionally the Bengalis were sidelined fromleadership of Muslim politics initially by the Hindustani Muslims from UP who dominated Muslim politics from1858 till 1936 and later the same act was replayed by post 1936 Muslim leaders i.e Jinnah and Liaquat ! By 1948 the Bengalis learnt the bitter lesson that they were condemned as Red Indians of the new state once Mr Jinnah refused to accept linguistic claims of the Bengalis ! Jinnah's successor the Hindustani Muslim Liaquat Ali Khan continued the same strategy sidelining the brilliant Bengali leader Suharwardy ! The same strategy was continued by Liaquats successors a group of Punjabi bureaucrats dominated by two viruses Ghulam Mohammad giftedto Pakistan by Mr Jinnah and Chaudhry Mohammad Ali gifted to Pakistan by Liaquat Ali ! The same ethnic chauvinism was carried on by Pakistan's first military usurper Ayub , Pathan by nomenclature and domicile , Punjabi by language and cultural norms , and a tactically timid paper tiger of WW Two Burma fame sacked andput on adverse by British general Reese in Burma for exhibiting phenomenal tactical timidity ! By 1969 the Bengali Muslims realised that they hadbeen thoroughly exploited in the name of Islam ,politically economically as well as culturally ! They decided to adopt thepath ofsecessionism ! Thus the civil war of1971 ,a genocide of Bengali Muslims and their final liberation by the hated Hindu Indian Army,who the Bengalis also hated but accepted as their liberators out ofsheer pragmatism ! 2001 was another fatal turning point once Pakistan's elite dropped Islam which the Muslim elite had picked up as a slogan not out of love of Islam but out ofclass motives ! Thus Islam no longer remains the binding force of Pakistan ! Its a major strategic shift and the basis of two nation theory has been abandoned ! The bond that connected the Sindhis ,Baluchis and Pathans with Punjabis has been severed ! In any case Islam did notsave the Bihari ,Punjabi or Bengali Muslims from cold blooded massacres in 1971 ! Ideology becomes meaningless once nationalities are exploited and reducedto aborigines and Red Indians! If someone in the Indian RAW has not picked up this fatal strategic dilemma ofPakistan then the eleven story RAW Building complex should be Oklahomised with TNT ! Ironically true patriots and men of substance are persona non grata in the Pakistani ISI dominated now by pen pushers and job seekers and sycophants ! Once a retired three star Pakistani general Hamid Nawaz incharge of Pakistans defence bureucracy naievely states in USA that Pakistan was saved by USA from Indian attack ,the Sindhis and the Balochis rightly deduce , why have such a large Pakistan Army if USA saved us as the know all secretary defence says !

Today in 2003 Pakistan's strategic dilemma is not India , not Phalcon system , not Israel but its nationality problem ! Today the passions of secessionism and mutual distrust in Pakistan's three provinces Baluchistan ,Sindh and NWFP are clearly present and can explode into civil war if political solution is not found ! 2003 may be the jump off year for India to strategically redress the balance of losses suffered in Kashmir in Quetta,Panjgur,Dera Bugti ,Razmak,Hala,Khairpur,Dadu etc ! The hatred against many real and perceived injustices by Pakistans ruling Hindustani-Punjabi Muslim clique is a potent and serious threat to Pakistan's survival as a prosperous state ! The Sindhi Muslims feel that they have been reduced to Red Indians ! A man ofquestionable credentials and rubber stamp credibility has been thrust upon this ancient race as chief minister of the province ! All the major shots in the province are called by minority Hindustani Muslim politicians ! The Baloch Muslims feel that projects like Gwadar port would reduce them into a minority once Punjabi,Pathan and Hindustani Muslims converge into Gwadar as happened with the Sindhis in case of Karachi after 1947 ! They feel that construction of cantonments in Baluchistan is a prelude to a future policy of genocide against the Balochi speaking Baloches ! The Pathan tribal Muslims feel that Pakistan's military junta has little love for Islam and is all set to introduce the already failed and discredited police system in Pakistans settled areas ! They further feel that the decision to control cross border movement and carrying ofweapons without license is a breach of promises made by Mr Jinnah to the tribal Pathans in 1947 ! The population of the majority province Punjab is expanding and fast reducing the provinces water resources,thus the common Punjabi strongly feels that more water reservoirs should be constructed ! This is in direct opposition to Sindhi perceptions that any newwater reservoirs would mean the economic death of Sindh ! Pakistan's strategic dilemma is not the Indian armoured division at Jhansi or Ambala , no India Agni Prithvi or Trishul missille but its nationality question ! Ironically instead of resolving to solve the nationality question Pakistan's military junta misled by US citizens like Shaukat Aziz is placing great faith in economic recovery, which is not at all solving the nationality question ! These pedantic decision makers fail to admit that Pakistan was divided in 1971 because of circumstances which had its roots in fallacious policies of themilitary usurper Ayub ! 1971 was not a political failure alone , but also a major strategicfailure ! The nationality qusetion of 2003 may again prove to be a prelude to the next strategic failure ! There is no overestimation in the assertion that any insurgency in any single province of Pakistan would lead to anything less than the demise of a state created inthe name of Islam in 1947 ! Some parts of theTwo Nation Theory died in the bloody killing fields of Bengal , some in the stony wilderness of Sarawan,Jhalawan,Maiwand,Chamalng and Kohlu in 1974-76 , some in the containers at Kunduz,Mazar Sharif , Miran Shah and Wana ! Containers gained much fame in 2001 but containers were used to kill men first by the Nazis and Soviets in Second World War when cattle wagons of trains the ancient form of containers were used to suffocate prisoners being transported from point A to B.Later Taliban used containers to kill people and it was only in 2001 that Dostums containers gained fame. The last and ironically thefatal battles may be fought in Baluchistan and Sindh ! A day may come when the Punjab province is a landlocked state in battle with Sindh over water and Baluchistan over gas ! God forbidthe day when Ghauris and Ghaznavi missiles are confined to Punjab

while Sindh andBaluchistan are US sattellites ! If the present Pakistani military junta can be a US sattellite in order to avoid Indian domination , why cannot the same analogy bepickedup by a future Sindhi or Baloch Muslim state ! As a student ofstrategy Lieutenant General Hamid Nawaz made a fatal strategic statement ! There is one fence which divides India and Pakistan ! There is one which Sharon is constructing to divide thePalestenians and possibly a third psychological one which the Pakistani establishment has been constructing since 1971 to divide the Pakhtuns of Afghanistan and Pakistan ! A fine reward for services Pakhtuns rendered in fighting against the British while MAO College Aligarh or Lahore could not have survived one day without dole given by British Governor of UP/Punjab or the British Viceroy ! The tribal Pakhtuns(Pashtuns from settled districts of Mardan,Bannu,Kohat and Peshawar were job seekers and docile like Punjabis) braved bullets in many anti British movements while British knighted many Punjabi Muslims later famous as Pakistan's great leaders at the height of Non Cooperation Movement ! What a fineway of rewarding a race whose reservoirs of heroism and defiance of odds exceed all other races in the so calledIslamic Republic of Pakistan ! I have met Somalis and Bosnians in USA and Canada who narrated terrible stories about how their countries were destroyed ! Ironically Pakistan may be following the Somali or Bosnian model ! Economic recovery is but a mirage! The gathering storm of the nationality question is the gathering storm that may prove to be a fatal strategic hurricane ! Pakistan saw one hurricane in 1971 ! Another onemay not be far away ! Bengal was fatal as 1971 proved ! Baluchistan or Sindh God forbid would be the final act if fatal strategic decisions are not revoked ! A statesman is not created by merely getting an Alpha grade in a military staff college or a national defence college ! Ho Chi Minh was not a conventional general but he brought to grief many regular three four and five star generals ! The disintegration of Pakistan will weaken the region ! The only way to avoid it is to dismantle the military-intelligence complex which has been dominating Pakistan since 1947 and to create a new democratic order which wants peace with all its neighbours and no strategic depth in any external direction.The strategic depth of Pakistan can only be its people.But the civil-military mafia dominating Pakistan has always regarded its people as a subject race. Pakistan and Afghanistan are multi ethnic states.They need to be free of ethnic chauvinism and ideological extremism of any type.This fact must be digested by the Punjabi and Pashtun majorities in both countries.Punjabi chauvinism led to division of Pakistan in 1971 and Pashtun chauvinism condemned Afghanistran to its 25 year long civil war from 1978 till now.Kashmir and Pashtunistan issue were deadweights for both countries.The main block is not physical or material but mental and psychological.The day ethnic majorities in both countries start respecting minorities, both countries will be on the road to success.

The Last Remedy as actually sent to Daily Nation Lahore for publication in October 2003 13 Oct 2003

Monday, October 13, 2003 2:41 AM From: "A.H Amin" <pavocavalry@yahoo.com> View contact details To: editor@nation.com.pk Cc: pavocavalry@hotmail.com The Last Remedy A.H Amin When all remedies fail and all wisdom is promiscuously degraded into naked pragmatic opportunism twisted to suit personal ends glorified as idealistic collective aspirations , the last remedy is neither outwardly brilliant , nor apparently wise, but one that alters the course of history at best and instills some semblance of fear of God in the men at the helm of affairs ! Consider the following incidents, all precise historical realities, some stranger than fiction, albeit true! On pretext of training and with a design to hurt the religious sentiments of his soldiers an over strict martinet of a British commanding officer denied Eid leave to sepoys of 4/2nd Punjab Regiment in the not too distant year of 1938 . Somewhere in the field near Amangarh Ranges in Nowshera one fine winter night in November 1938 , a day before Eid ,a Punjabi Muslim soldier decided that the matter could only be vindicated by a caliber 303 Lee Enfield Rifle ! During the night this indomitable soul ran amok and shot dead four British officers , the first being the commanding officer of the Regiment and also three Indian VCOs ,more loyal than the king ! The British hushed up the incident, as few in Pakistan know today , , keeping in line with foxy old policy of " conspiracy of silence" ! The unit was quietly disbanded! Nevertheless fear of God was driven home well, albeit backed by the mighty swift force of kinetic energy of 303 caliber projectiles! The assailant was killed, but the example he set was well understood, i.e. do not underestimate the religious sentiments of your men!

In yet another incident earlier in 1904 Sepoy Kabul Khan , hailing from a fine P[akhtun tribe , the Abur Rehman Khel sub section of the Bahlolzai section of the illustriopus Mahsud tribe shot dead Captain J.B Bowring the Political SAgent of Waziristan in the middle of the nioght through the head ! In a subsequent dialogue soon after the incident the simple sepoy explained that he had a clear conscience since " Bowring was sleeping with his feet towards Mecca" and "therefore I shot him " ! Later Kabul Khan surrendered , threw his rifle without fear of death and was shot dead , dying with a clean conscience ! In 1984 two valiant Sikhs inscribed another lesson in the sands of time with their blood ! No heavy ranked corps commanders like Brar who slavishly followed orders to storm the Golden Temple despite being a Sikh in name ! These were simple souls , one an ordinary constable Satwant Singh and the other a Sub Inspector Beant Singh ! On the morning of 31st October 1984 at 9.38 precisely these two fearless men pumped seven bullets of a Sten Gun and revolver into the vital organs of Durga Devi ! No missiles test fired at unknown test sites but simple bullets which did the job which no missiles may ever ironically do ! The men died but the message that they gave in martyrdom lives ! In 1978 Egyptian president Anwar Sadat a complexed man inflicted with a highly dangerous disease ofcshameless opportunism betrayed the Arab Muslim cause at Camp David ! This betrayal was avenged by a lieutenant name Khalid Islambouli in 1981 ! Islambouli was executed , he never perhaps wanted to be a red tape without conscience , but he remains a hero in the eyes of many who have the heart to feel and the courage to think beyond immediate self interest ! The Holy Bible says " What shall it profit a man , if he shall gain the whole world and lose his soul ! (Bible-Mark 8:36).Compare this with the shameless opportunism of so many Suhartos and Sadats , the apparently wise men who lost wars but ruled their own people with help of Western powers ! I hold that militarily 1973 War was won by Israelis ! Perhaps the only war that the Israeils may lose is the present one against the guerrilla forces of Islam ! What is the life of a man ? Pilot Officer V.A Roseware who perished in the Battlle of Britain in 1940 explained this enigma in a letter written to his mother shortly before his death at the age of 25 0r 26 in the following words " The universe is so vast and so ageless that the lifec of one man can only be justified by the measure of his sacrifice" ! In Armughan I Hijaz the poet philosopher Iqbal says " Why there is no storm in your river ? Why your ego is nota true Muslim? It is absoolutely useless to complain against the destiny determined by God ? Why are you notb the destiny of God yourself ? " The Kamikaze pilots who crashed theior planes sacrificing their lives in second world war had the following motto " Like a blossom today then scattered , life is like a delicate flower ! How can one expect the fragrance to last forver ? "

When will leaders of Islam get out of the whirlpool of cheap existence and opportunism ! Bending obsequiously , and clicking their heels while shaking hands with US assistant secretaries of state ! Acclaiming their masters and basking in the glory of a passive foreign policy which has divided the Muslim world , facilitating the US task to defeat all Islamic forces piecemeal , one by one while , many others run after carrots suspended in mid air by USA as baits ! All is well while Syria is attacked by Israeli fighters while US Assistant Secretary of state visits Islamabad ! What is the idea of life ! To get a green card ! To build a palatial bungalow in Zamzama Scheme or Bani Gala ! To make costly condominiums and penthouses next to a creek overflowing with the phenomenal load of half the gutters of Karachi ! When I sometimes sleep a student of mine in Armour school shakes my shoulder in a dream ! Tiwana then a captain as I saw him in 1990-91 , later embracing ,martyrdom in Kargil in 1999 as a major tells me " Sir I am very unhappy , do you know how we died , do you know what happened to us , we had volunteered to fight for the cause of Islam" ! Once this dream ends I imagine the heroes of those rocky pinnacles! " Piles of bones, once animated by the proud breath of life ,now merely scattered limbs ,nameless remains , human chaos ,sacred agglomeration of countless relics – God shall recognize you , the dust of heroes ! Perhaps history will not forgive leaders whop betrayed their nations! Leaders who usurped power by virtue of their institutional positions earned after years of cheap manoeuvring and sycophancy ! What is the use of massive military hardwares , impressive missiles , macho camouflaged uniforms once the leaders have no will to fight ! What is the use of a top heavy military bureaucracy which seeks glory in playing the part of the pragmatic docile subsidiary vassal ! Why do common people become suicide bombers ! It is so because conventional armies of the Muslim world have to failed to do their job in battle , yet they enjoy moviong around with swagger and bravado claiming that they are the most martial military machines in the history of mankind ! The pleasant future that the US policy makers may have promised the relatively naieve Pakistani policy makers is essentially only a carrot to make the mule do its job ! pavocavalry@kurdland.com Arif Nizami published the article above only in January 2004 after two attempts had taken place on the usurper Musharrafs life On Armies of Muslim world and how to remove the usurper General Musharraf

16 Nov 2003 AGE OF STRATEGIC ANARCHY A.H Amin

While human history has continously oscillated between order and disorder , peace and war , the post 9/11 may be said to represent the watershed between the age of strategic stability which started from 1945 and a transition to a many decade ,perhaps century long period of strategic anarchy ! War as a sublime activity has witnessed a stark transition from rationality to madness from9/11 ! The Nero at the apex of the whole exercise is Emperor Bush the Second who more than any Al Qaeda terrorist , has made this world , a far more dangerous place for USA , primarily because of lack of knowledge and a myopic worldview which is based on a very narrow perception of history and human civilisation ! Alas Bush is a teetotaller and does not have that coup d oeil which distinguished great warlords like Winston Churchill reinforced by many pints of finest beverages of Scotland ! Here we have a scenario of a warlord , who has naieve strategic perception and is manipulated by cheap consumerist aides motivated by business interests or narrow beliefs in Christian resurgence or Zionist supremacy ! Thus the age of strategic uncertainty and anarchy ! If Field Marshal Foch's ideas on strategy are to be applied here , all anti American forces , have a grandstrategic opportunity to humble USA at a nominal cost in the entire region between Casablanca in the West till Sakhalin in the East, with additional reinforcement from sabotage missions launched in theentire tract from Los Angeles till United Kingdom ! American interests and American installations are located in such a widespread area that USA with its entire might cannot defend all of its many assets at all times ! Thus the truth in the adage that he who defends everything defends nothing ! Foch's two cardinal principles of strategy applied wisely in this scenario i.e " Economy of Force" and " Denial of freedom of manoeuvre to the enemy" can easily bring USA to a long term strategic grief ! Already some results are evident in many Quixotic Blackhawks reduced to molten metal in the entire deathland between Tikrit and Karbala ! The age of strategic anarchy may thus unfold in the following stages or phases ; i.e (1)Initial attrition of US forces in Iraq,Afghanistan and Korea (2) A period of spilling out of the conflict into new theatres by the USA in search of a centre of gravity like Iran,Syria ,Pakistan,Saudi Arabia.Something like Napoleons attack on Russia or Hitlers Case Blue which envisaged a dualoffensive towards Stalingrad and the Caucasian Oilfields (3) A period of intense attrition in the new theatres chosen by USA (4) a

period of USA's exhaustion , something close to Clausewitz's concept of culmination point of a great power and begining of decline of the New Christian Roman Empire of USA (5) A period of exploitation of USA's exhaustion by other major players like Russia,China ,EU etc ! Initial attrition may last from 1 to five years ! Possibly Bush's successor Democratic or Republican may be unable to initiate a policy of disengagement ! The USA is in position of a man holding a wolf by the ears ! It may be difficult to kill this wolf , but it is fatal to leave it ! All that the anti US forces ,open or covert need to do it is to assist the wolf ,create new breeding areas for the wolves , increase their birth rate ! In the second phase of spilling out USA has to suffer greater losses both material and moral ! Greater casualties ! An attack on Iran via Pakistani Baluchistan or via Azerbaijan or via the cosatal Persian Gulf ! A Possible denuclearisation of Pakistan ! A crusade against Syria with an American general walking haughtily till the masoulem of Salahuddin Ayubi in his boots and telling the sleeping Lion of Islam like earlier French generals who occupied Syria after 1918; Salahuddin I have come back to avenge the defeat of Crusaders !

Intense attrition wouldtake place in the next third phase , with either USA destroying all its enemies or arriving at its culmination point ! A start of a period of decline , the ebb of the tide that started gaining strength from WW 1 ! The fourth phase would be either USA's victory , perhaps a Pyhrric one or an ignominous withdrawal ! The Barbarians as theUSA perceives its Islamic enemies wouldthen regroup and counter attack ! The fifth phase would be open exploitation of USA's exhaustion by China and Russia hopefully with a more resolute leader who drinks a lot of Vodka and has zeal and the killer instinct of a Peter the Great or Stalin !

The wholeprocess of these fivestages may vary from anything between 5 years to 100 years ! The stakes are high , the battle field vaster than any other battlefield in human history and the shades too many for the strategists eyeto perceive or comprehend ! The present third world war which started with 9/11 has no centreof gravity,no fixed battlle lines , it is hundred dimensional,no rules , no morality ,no boundaries and no tangible end in sight ! One thing is clear ! USA's cheap consumerist society has a great deal of military muscle but a pathetic strategic vision ! We salute the new age of Strategic anarchy !

Why Waziristan cannot be conquered
Why Waziristan cannot be conquered by A. H. Amin (Friday 13 February 2004)

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"Beware of despising the tribals. They brought both Muslim and non Muslim Emperors to grief whether it was Jahangir, Shah Jahan, Aurangzeb, Ranjit Singh or the British king." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Those who know the Pathans and their history will know exactly what is happening is Waziristan today and which Lashkar is doing what and for what reason. The tribal Pathans have traditionally been supreme fighters who defied the Mughal occupiers, the Sikh occupiers, the British occupiers and now the latest occupiers, i.e. the US coalition chasing the Pathans and Muslims of various castes and creeds motivated by sheer ideology. While the tribesmen know the art of resistance they also know the art of extortion from occupiers who try to buy them. Thus while the tribal Pathans killed many thousand occupiers in the British era they also managed to extort many subsidy payments from the British. Thus the same tribesmen who worked as contract laborers making roads for the British during day time, enjoyed sniping and shooting many British officers after sunset or during daytime when not on duty. Thus when a lashkar of tribesmen appears to be on the payroll of political agents fed by US CIA dollars, all is not what it seems. In this case the tribals are performing an overt function of collaboration and a covert function of increasing their financial muscle which may be subsequently channelised into gun running, drugs or Jihad. The tribesmen were not loyal subjects of the British. They spent their lives in sniping and ambushing the British and their mercenary Indian troops. Their life script was not to get a BA degree and become a minor civil servant or an ICS officer more loyal than the King. Nor did they get barristers degree and conduct profitable law practices in the courts of the British occupiers. These men defied the British, killing over 10,000 British or Indian troops from 1849 to 1947, bleeding the British Empire white, forcing the British to maintain a division plus force in the Trans Indus tribal tract. These tribesmen gave sanctuary to Mughal Prince Ferozshah and to the followers of Syed Ahmad Shaheed of Rai Barelly at Malka and Ambela. These tribesmen greeted the British Indian army with fire while many today are famous as great Muslim leaders accepted knighthood and were ridiculed for doing so by Maulana Zafar Ali Khan of "Zamindar" fame. The tribesmen acceded to Pakistan out of their free will. They were not conquered by the

Pakistan Army. As a matter of fact no army including the Mughal, Sikh or British ever succeeded in conquering them. The tribal areas were occupied, overrun but never conquered. Their mosques were never used as stables and powder magazines as many in the tract East of Indus including the Badshahi Mosque of Lahore. The tribesmen were not saved by the army of the English East India Company unlike the Muslims of Delhi or UP or the Muslims of Punjab and settled Pathan areas were from Hindu Marathas and Sikhs in 1803 and 1849. The tribesmen's mosques were not restored after humble petitioning to the English East India Company as was the case with Badshahi Mosque of Lahore in 1856. The tribesmen were not willing mercenaries of the British and many Mehsuds, Wazirs and Afridis defected to the German lines in WW-I and returned to Tirah and Waziristan to wage Jihad against the British. The tribesmen cannot be compared with mercenary Muslim troops who opened fire on the Holy Ka'aba on British orders or who gunned down freedom fighters like an FF unit did at Jallianwalla Bagh in 1919. The tribesmen acceded to Pakistan on the solemn assurance by Mr Jinnah that their customs and their Pathan way of life would not be interfered with. The tribesmen waged Pakistan's first successful Jihad in Kashmir in 1947-48. The tribesmen were used as cannon fodder during the Afghan War of 1979-89 when many generals became rich overnight and won cheap glory without exposing themselves to within 300 miles of hostile fire. The tribals braved salvoes of Soviet Katushkas and shrapnel of Hind Gun ships while sons of ex military tailors became billionaires. The tribals were more Pan Islamist than Jamaluddin Afghani, more martial than any so called martial race of Indo Pak. More resolute than any general from Cape Komorin to Khunjerab Pass. The tribals are raised as snipers, not as sycophants, their life script is not to please 15 different seniors and get a good ACR, practicing sycophancy with civilian prime ministers and launching coups without a shot being fired against unarmed civilian heads of state. What is happening in the tribal areas is not in Pakistan's national interests. The venom which has been forced into the tribal Pathan's soul is counterproductive for Pakistan in the long run. The tribal areas has seen many occupiers. They are classic practitioners of Liddell Harts strategy of indirect approach. Their guerrilla tactics are far more subtle than that of Mao, Ho Chi Minh or Che Guevara. They apply Mao without knowing what he had written. They apply Sandino's Nicaraguan tactics which brought US Marines to grief without ever having heard of him. They are warriors par excellence.

For each militant handed over the tribals gain goodwill from greedy political agents who they deceive and thus succeed in sheltering 50 militants. There is a method in the apparent outward collaboration of the tribals. They cannot be overawed by a telephone call or bought by a million dollar retainer. No cadet school or college can tame the tribals for whom music is the whistling bullet and its ricochet in the rocky gorges of Waziristan. The tribals don't need a federal government to make money. Their very location is an asset. Beware of despising the tribals. They brought both Muslim and non Muslim Emperors to grief whether it was Jahangir, Shah Jahan, Aurangzeb, Ranjit Singh or the British king. These are not the men who would sell their mother for a thousand dollars as some US senator said about some Pakistani leaders. These leaders may be found in Dera Ghazi Khan or somewhere East of the tribal areas. The tribals are sons of their fathers and there is no confusion about their paternity. A man who does not know the tribal Pathan way of life is not competent to judge the subtleties of their character. It appears that the same mistake is being made today in the highest echelons of Pakistan's present military usurpers http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content...b7adba15e14c1f A. H Amin is a writer, journalist, ex editor of Defence Journal (Pakistan), ex Editor of Globe (Pakistan); author of "Indo Pak Wars from 1947 to 1971," "Man's Role in History" and "Land of the Pure (short stories)." He contributed this article to Media Monitors Network (MMN) from Sindh, Pakistan.
Strategy of Opportunism A.H Amin 22 February 2004

While the USA is relentlessly pursuing a " Final Solution" type strategy aimed at reducing the Muslim World into sub humans fit to perform essentially menial tasks , the so called leaders of the Islamic

world are pursuing essentially short term myopic strategies centering around opportunistic motives without attempting to resist US attempts to narrow the freedom of manoeuvre of Islamic countries ! While logically a leader must resolutely resist once another external power overtly or covertly attempts to reduce his country's freedom of action , here we have a unique scenario where leaders have assumed the role of collaborators par excellence ! There are many parallels of similar nature in history ! Once the Spaniards landed in Mexico many native Red Indian leaders became the guides of the Spaniards for relatively petty personal gains ! Indo Pak had its share of Mir Jafars ,Sadiqs , many Syeds ,many feudals ,many military usurpers ! While Indians were flogged and made to crawl at gun point in Punjab in 1919 toadies like Sir Mohammad Shafi attended tea parties with the British Governor of Punjab ! While Delhi was in the control of the sepoys of 1857 , the Nawab of Karnal grandfather of Pakistan's first prime minister was protecting British communications from Punjab to Delhi and ancestors of Feroz Khan Noon another Pakistani prime minister were raising cavalry risalahs for the British ! Coming down to precise facts the USA is pursuing a clear cut strategy to instill docility , timidity and meekness in the Islamic world since 1945 ! There are roughly four aspects of the whole affair !The first dagger was struck in the heart of the Islamic world in shape of Israel in the words of Mr Jinnah ! Today many leaders of Islamic world are bending obsequeously to recognise Israel ! The key US base of operations to ensure chaos and disorder in the Islamic world is Israel !The second major US objective since the 1960s was to eliminate the spirit of idealism instilled in many subjugated classes and races to conduct an unconventional low intensity war against larger oppressive forces ! Thus the Vietnam conflict of 1960s and seventies ! The 1990s saw a unique reassertion of Islamist forces following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan ! What followed was a direct threat to USA's political economic and military interests ! Here was a threat greater than the Red Threat ! The third major US objective was to control the spread of Nuclear Bilogical and Chemical weapons , not for any reason connected with ethics but essentially to have a monopoly on the available means of violence ! The fourth major US objective is to control the economic resources of the Middle East and Central Asia till alternate sources of fuel are discovered ! The common aim in all four scenarios is to limit the growth of any challenge to USA whether it is China , Russia or the Islamic world !

In order to implement the above objectives the Americans picked up a leaf from the English East India Company's note book ! Thus the emergence of military usurpers and their so called liberal stance and rhetoric of detente ! The military usurpers and the many psuedo democratic and other dynastic leaders of the region are what the Nizam of Deccan or Nawab of Oudh to the English East India Company ! In both scenarios initially both the states were a threat to the English Colonisers ! Both were turned into vassals in a period stretching from 1764 to 1799 ! Oudh threatened the English Company and Battle of Buxar fought between the English company and Oudh was listed as a decisive battle of India by both Colonel Malleson the author of " Decisive Battles of India " and by Sir John Fortescue the official historian of the British Army ! Hyderabad was also a threat but was reduced into a vassal by a combination of intrigue and diplomacy ! The military juntas in West Asia are agents of change ! Agents selected to implement the US agenda to instil docility , timidity and meekness in the Islamic world ! Seen in this light President Musharraf’s four point agenda of initiating the peace process with India including Kashmir , actively accept and pursue the role of a subsidiary vassal in the US War against terror , thirdly declaration of war on Islamic militant forces within Pakistan and punishing individuals involved in nuclear proliferation , fits in very well with the above mentioned four objectives of USA . There is yet another psychological basis of the whole affair ! This is hidden but crucial ! The successful army officer who rises to general rank is not a mere professional but careerist par excellence ! A professional is devoted to the institution and knows his job while a careerist is dedicated to self advancement and has a selfish motivation ! Thus many fine professionals who were not careerists were sidelined in various ranks spanning from a major to a major general ! The vast majority of those who progress above major generals are careerists who are masters in the art of public relationing , sycophancy and scientific hole punching ! Well equipped with the art of Dale Carnegie these apparently successful people reach the highest slots , thus snatching opportunities and obtaining advantages which essentially belonged to higher characters ! Here is a scenario of a man who becomes a leader first by pleasing 15 seniors , getting good annual reports , later a civilian prime minister who selected him for the highest slot ! A point comes where this man becomes a country’s highest office holder ! He owes his office not to any ideology or a political process but to the art of

sycophancy practiced for thirty long years ! Now that this person is the head of state , he sees his survival not in following any national agenda but in practicing sycophancy with the only super power that he sees ! Thus all the resultant liberal agenda and professions of peace and moderation ! For many years the Pakistani military establishment was in the vanguard of supporting guerrilla wars of liberation ! Starting from Major General Akbar Khan in 1947-48 Kashmir War , Akhtar Malik in 1965 , on to the Afghan War of 1975-2001 the Pakistani establishment supported Islamist guerrilla forces ! The continuation of the same process was the Kargil Affair of 1999 once many regular volunteers were launched in the valleys of death and on to rocky pinnacles in a glacial wilderness ! For many years the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was viewed as a threat to Pakistan but today in a statement reported in national dailies the DG ISPR stated that US operations in Afghanistan are not the business of Pakistan ! In 1979 0r 1980 the threat was less dangerous since the Soviets were only on Pakistan’s borders ! Now the Americans are in Afghanistan , in alliance with India , sitting in the Gulf and also represented by many ex employees of Bank of America and CITI Bank holding key positions in Pakistan’s political hierarchy ! Then there are other close confidants who had stints of service in Washington D.C in diplomatic assignments and were cultivated during their walks in Maryland Parks ! There is also what the Americans call soft power represented by the likes of Zubaida Jalal and the NGOs ! There are members from sectarian and ethnic minorities all set to implement the US agenda so that USA gives them the promised city states on Pakistan’s coasts whether it is Gwadar or Karachi or the Northern Areas ! The détente with India is an essentially illogical affair ! Here is a power which is all set to reduce the Muslims of Indo Pak to the role of vassals in order to avenge a 1000 year long period of servility in which many Muslim kings destroyed temples or imposed taxes on the majority Hindus ! The Muslims were saved not by military power but by Ahmad Shah Abdali and the English East India Company who destroyed the Hindu Maraths and the Sikhs ! The BJP is a continuation of Sivajis agenda ! Détente with Pakistan is to be followed by reduction of Pakistan to a Bhutan or Nepal ! With the Jihadis declared as persona non grata and Pakistan’s Nuclear programme literally capped in the scenario following Qadeer Khan’s planned humiliation Pakistan within ten years will be little better than Nepal

or Bhutan or may be Sri Lanka ! All with the aim of pleasing the boss i.e USA and getting a good chit ! The so called strategy of assisting USA in the war against terror is also aimed at an extension of personal rule ! The motivation in this case again being self interest rather than national interest ! There is no doubt about the adage that there is a great difference between a cunning man and a wise man not only in the point of honesty as well as ability ! I have always been an intellectual disciple of Francis Bacon ! The irony of Pakistan is that we have had cunning leaders but very few wise leaders ! Those who were wise and had an ideology were eliminated ! Those who were well meaning but lacked grey matter were exiled ! We are left with cunning operators who are good school boys masters in pleasing the headmaster sitting in Washington D.C !

The Trans Frontier Warriors Wednesday, March 24, 2004 12:07 AM From: "A.H Amin" <pavocavalry@yahoo.com> View contact details To: editorial@nation.com.pk, editor@nation.com.pk The supreme defiance of the Trans Frontier Pathans as the British knew the Tribal Pathans is not merely racial but also philosophical ! Their philosophy of life is superior as well as subtle ! They are not bound in chains , having no mercenary past , having escaped docility timidity and meekness that was systematically instilled in the British in the inhabitants of the settled areas comprising the vast bulk of populace of modern Indo Pak ! The tribal philosophy of life is based on independence of human spirit ! They do not pay reluctant homage to anyone whether it is a usurper who has seized power through the backdoor or a priest who has voted for the seventeenth amendment ! They are not in the habit of taking dictations nor is irresolution disguised as liberalism or pragmatism the hallmark of their personality ! They are ready to defiantly look into the pit of hell rather than abandon their convictions to please a White Anglo Saxon Protestant master who subtly arm twists men with outwardly macho camouflaged attires into submissive mice ! They are not the humble subjects of the unipolar world order but men

who can raise themselves above the ideas of their times i.e shameless opportunism rationalized as “ brilliant foreign policy” ! While Pakistan’s present military usupers have very cleverly , rather treacherously introduced a Machiavellian confusion of principle in Pakistani society with subsidiary media allies like the Geo and ARY acting as subsidiary allies of the military junta the tribals are very clear who is a soldier of Islam and who is a terrorist ! The Mahsuds know fighting and have fought well whether it was Flanders or East Africa or whether it was against the British colonials ! Between 1914 and 1918 they killed 246 British soldiers and their Indian camp follower mercenary soldiers , capturing 400 rifles ! 180 major crimes in 1915 alone with 100 victims dead and 93 fat Hindu moneylenders and businessmen kidnapped ! In April and May 1917 the Mahsuds had bagged 207 in killed , nearly all regular army men both British and Indian , wounded some 140 and captured some 238 excellent standard British Indian Army issue Lee Enfield Rifles ! All with force of conviction backed by tremendous stalking skills and some Lee Enfield Rifles ! The Mahsuds serving in the British Indian Army did equally well ! They bayoneted a British officer at Bombay ! The British exasperated at their inability to instill timidity docility and meekness in the Mahsuds unlike many other races of Indo Pak Muslims declared that “ Mahsuds were a byword for unreliability” ! Many deserted to the Turkish and German lines in France , Egypt and Mesopotamia returning to Waziristan to carry on the real war against the colonial masters !The British were thus forced to disband most of the ten pure Mahsud companies of the Indian Army after the First World War ! While 421,000 Acres were distributed in West Punjab as Jangi Inams to the more misguided , pliable mercenaries in the Chenab and Bari Doab , for fighting against the Turk Muslims , the tribal areas were gifted with more forts , aerial bombing and destruction of whole villages ! It is an irony that these tribals figure nowhere in the history textbooks in Pakistani schools simply because no Wazir or Mahsud writes books for the various text book boards ! What is happening in Wana is a mere continuation of that story ! In 1919 the enemy was the British Empire , today it is the American Empire ! The Tribals do not have sons living in Boston or brothers working in American corporations barring few exceptions ! Their life script is not a green card or a Canadian Visa in the best tradition of “ Hop Step and Jump” from Lucknow , Karachi to Toronto ! They are not interested in pleasing glorified section officers of state department , sheepishly and obsequiously referred to as US Assistant Secretaries of States by the Pakistani Foreign Office ! The tribesemen are the men who resolutely charged the British Indian troops armed with Gatling Machine guns and Breach loading artillery guns with knives and muzzle loaders ! The British were so deeply disturbed that they lost faith in their weapons ! British officers rationalized their failures by alleging that their rifles lacked stopping power to check the tribal charges ! It was stated at staff debriefings that the then new caliber 303 lacked the stopping power of the previous caliber 457 rifle ! Secret forensic tests were then carried out on the corpses of Pathan Mullahs who had been already executed by firing squads using various types of ammunition ! Today we hear of corpses of Chechens

being sent for DNA tests ! Perhaps to discover how to make them as docile timid and meek as soldiers from many US vassal Islamic states ! On one dark March 1915 night Jemadar Mir Mast Afridi another indomitable tribal from Tirah made history not by shamelessly collaborating with the British to get some squares in Chenab colony like many from rain irrigated areas of Gujar Khan , but by deserting with 14 other Afridis to the German lines in France ! Mir Mast was awarded a very high German gallantry award Iron Cross by a personality no other than the German Kaiser and then sent to Tirah to carry on the Jihad against the British ! The Mahsuds and Wazirs are masters of ambush , raid and concealment ! They know the regular military tactics on their finger tips since many are ex servicemen , deserters or descendants of freedom fighters ! They may not know the art of getting a good ACR or pleasing multiple bosses starting from those in uniform till US state department clerks or section officers , but they know how to polish off one man with one round ! The tribesmen do not need three inches of neat whiskey to raise their spirits ! They rely on their faith in God or on some cigarettes fortified with Cannabis in case of the less pious ones ! They do not speak the Pashto of Mardan or Nowshera corrupted by ease and luxury thanks to Upper and Lower Swat Canals or easy jobs in the Nowshera Garrison ! What is happening in Waziristan today is no clash of terrorists with loyalists ! Loyalists certainly on one side but no terrorists opposing them ! If Loyalism is toeing the US State Department line then anyone opposing this line cannot be dubbed as a terrorist ! One may ask the US loyalists that where was their Islam when sons of middle class Jullundhur Pathan generals were smuggling Stingers to UAE or when grandsons of military tailors from Jullundhur were playing in millions stashed in UK bank accounts ! At that time Waziristan was El Dorado and today the Geo TV calls it a haven of terrorists ! This is a clash of two philosophies of life ! One that values the freedom of man and another that is enslaved by green cards , palatial bungalows and dominated by social climbers ! One consisting of descendants of freedom fighters and another consisting of descendants of economic migrants or recipients of Jangi Inams in Chenab Colony ! The USA aims at instilling docility timidity and meekness in the Islamic world ! Waziristan is one decisive testing area in this exercise

15 JUNE 2004

Published the NATION Lahore 15 June 2004 Pakistan Army -Afghanistan ,Kargil and Clifton Bridge A NEW TURNING POINT IN PAKISTANS HISTORY-A CORPS COMMANDER ATTACKED BY CIVILIAN MILITANTS The reasons why human beings act in a particular manner are diverse and complicated ! Unfortunately many of those who become famous and wield power are not heavy weights in terms of human greatness but essentially shallow light weights who gained promotion and power through a long drawn process involving sycophancy , duplicity , and intellectual dishonesty !Thus the reason why many wars in history were fought not because of convincing rationale or causes but to attain cheap glory on part of a shallow light weight who by some twist of destiny for his countrymen has gained a high instutional office . The Afghan War of 1979-2001 which began in 1975-76 once Mr Z.A Bhutto the then prime minister of Pakistan authorised a top secret military operation to arm twist the then Afghan strong man Sardar Daud occupies a fateful position in Pakistani military history ! What began as a limited military response for definite foreign policy objectives was soon transformed into a proxy war fought as a subsidiary US vassal by the military usurper Zia who was himself struggling for political survival ! How can the Afghan War be summed up in a paragraph ? It was a war which militarised the Pakistani society ! The concept of guerrilla war successfully applied by various military leaders from Sivaji in 1660 , Spaniards in the Peninsular War ,Vietnamese in Indo China was successfully applied in Afghanistan ! This convinced the Islamists which includes all who are Muslim by chance , guerrilla warriors by choice , and international soldiers of Allah by orientation , that faith combined with Kalashnikov ,some rockets , some explosives could move mountains ! This was a tremendous mental revolution whose significance was grasped by USA only around 1989 ! A slave as Muslims were , and people accustomed to be subjugated since many years had decided to rebel ! Afghanistan unleashed the concept of armed insurrection by the populace in Islamic World ! What had been done by Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam and Fidel Castro could be done in Afghanistan,Kashmir,Chechnya and many Middle Eastern autocracies ! The Kalashnikov decentralised the conduct of war from standing armies to private groups! Foreign policy no longer remained the tool of mediocre glorified clerks of the foreign ministry ! The lesson learnt was that a superpower or a regular army could be humbled by a low intensity war waged with faith plus AK-47 ! The Pakistani military establishment faced with US sanctions imposed after 1989 responded by aligning itself with the irregular guerrilla forces of Islam ! Ideology was embraced as a last remedy for survival ! Many groups dealing with jihad shifted their orientation from Afghanistan to Chechnya ,Kashmir and Philipines ! The USA saw the Islamists demobilised from the Afghan Guerrilla war as a threat as grave as the former USSR ! Till 1989 it was Anglo Saxon Capitalism versus Slav Communist Bloc ! Now it was Anglo Saxon capitalism led by USA versus Islamists from Asia and parts of Africa ! The partnership between the Pakistani military establishment and ideology lasted till 9/11/ 2001 ! After 9/11 as the National Defence College Islamabad declared in one of the themes given to a guest

speaker , i.e " Ideology was no longer fashionable" . Pakistan which had been the nursery of Islamists from many regions became the dog catcher of USA ! Ideology was no longer fashionable ! It did not pay in US dollars to follow ideology as was the case during the Afghan War from 1979 to 1989 ! Ideology now became fatal ! To be a Muslim and to be on the wrong side of USA was not merely incorrect but fatal ! Thus the famous " Volte face" or "U Turn" executed in the best traditions of Talleyrand and Machiavelli once USA presented Pakistan with an ultimatum of either being a US vassal or face the consequences ! The resultant surrender became another watershed in Pakistani military history ! The common Muslim was galvanised to vote for the Muslim League based on vague promises that Pakistan will be a bastion of Islam ! It did not take very long for the common man who bore the brunt of the 1947 carnage that the higher Pakistani classes were more interested in personal benefits and religion was a secondary matter ! The Pakistani higher classes discovered Islam only once the USSR came uninvited to the Afghan Dinner party ! Ideology suddenly became fashionable ! Ideology brought dollars ! Ideology made generals jump from Morris Minors to Land Cruisers and made them industrial tycoons ! Ideology made sense ! ideology still made sense when the USA sidelined Pakistan after 1989 ! It gave free cannon fodder to be sacrificed in Kashmir and Afghanistan ! Ideology made sense once the Pakistani military establishment decided to launch the ill fated Kargil Plan ! It made sense not because of any strategic reasons but because the office of army chief had been devalued by sacking of General Jahangir Karamat and glory had to be one to restore the macho image of some generals ! Ideology was dangerously compromised not merely by withdrawing from Kargil but essentially by launching Kargil ! Strategy was sacrificed on the altar of tactics and the Hindu Fundamentalist inadvertently given a new lease of life in the 1999 Indian elections ! The third fatal watershed in Pakistani military history was Pakistan's role of subsidiary tactical garbage collector of USA finally leading to the fateful Wana Faux Pas ! A serious fault initially only a hairline fracture appeared in the Pakistani body organism ! Internal cohesion was fatally ruptured ! The military establishment was no longer convincingly viewed as the guardian of Pakistani ideolgy ! Thus the unfortunate incidents of the bridge blast and suicide bombings in Pindi ! The fact that those who carried out the above operations were junior operatives is not important ! What is important is that there is an unfortunate ideological divide in the institution ! The sepoys are the foundation of the army ! Once someone says that " no important person was killed in firing incident A'' , this is a fatal error ! Are five or ten soldiers not important persons ! The most valuable weapon that a military leader has are his soldiers ! To call them unimportant is a fatal error ! The Clifton Bridge firing is the fourth fatal watershed in Pakistani military history ! The military establishment is no longer coercive ! Its might has been challenged ! This is a fatal omen ! It is mind boggling why its significance is not being realised ! The fear that the military machine inspired has ended ! Today the common man views the guardians of ideology as not so respectable ! The crevass that appeared after 9/11 is widening and the journey from Afghanistan to Clifton Bridge has been a story of many Fatal Decisions ! All is not lost yet but Pakistan definitely needs a great man at the helm

of affairs ! Unfortunately there is nothing significant presently on the highest pinnacles of power other than "mediocrity par excellence " ! May Allah save Pakistan from being a Somalia or Bosnia !

My Dear Agha Sahib, Good Morning. Thank you so much for the mail. Not many will be able to benefit from this writing. This requires some knowledge of history. It is good, nonetheless. You can ALWAYS be kinder !!!!!!!!!! I wonder if I am qualified to say that. I am very hard hiting too. Wish you all the best. Allah be with you. With best regards. Yours, Pasha

----Original Message Follows---From: "A. H AMIN" <pavocavalry@hotmail.com> Subject: Major Military Changes in Pakistan-Corrected/Modified Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 08:27:41 +0000 --Forwarded Message Attachment-From: pavocavalry@hotmail.com Subject: Major Military Changes in Pakistan-Corrected/Modified Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 08:27:41 +0000

Major military changes in Pakistan A.H Amin

When General Musharraf made major changes in the Pakistan Armys command structure he was merely following long established traditions in Pakistani political history . Lessons of institutional wisdom distilled down from Ranjit Singh to Mr Jinnah ,Liaquat Ali,Ayub , Z.A Bhutto, Zia and their lighter weight successors !

What are these principles ? Goof Selection Syndrome discovered by the British once they kept a 50 % ranker quota in the intake of Indian Military Academy Dera Dun.Perfected by the military usurper Ayub once he selected the drill square sergeant type soldier Musa to lead Pakistan Army with diasastorous results in 1965 ! Re-applied twice by Mr Z.A Bhutto once once he selected Tikka and second time fatally once he selected Zia to head the army both under the premise that both would be meek docile and servile followers,thus presenting no Bonapartist threat to Mr Z.A Bhuttos rule ! A similar tradition was followed by Zia once he created the office of vice chief of army staff , having learnt from the self created field marshal usurper Ayub that leaving the army chiefs post is suicidal for a military ruler ! Thus Zias selection of the ex ranker Sawar Khan as army chief, and subsequent succession of the short service commissioned non commander type staff officer K.M Arif.The same tradition was followed once Nawaz Sharif selected General Musharraf based on the faulty premise that Musharraf being from a minority ethnic group would not be a threat.This was Sharifs fatal decision !

Once Musharraf elevates weak men to occupy high posts he is merely following a tradition established by Ranit Singh when he selected Tejh Singh of Meerut to head the Khalsa. Goof selection syndrome remains the tragedy of the army of a relatively unstable state !

There is no doubt that armed forces of this part of the world have been traditionally highly disciplined.Marching loyally under British officers from Mardan to Delhi in 1857 ! Marching in three pincers under British officers in four Mysore Wars against Hyder Ali and Seringapatam.Marching from Kabul to Kandahar under Lord Roberts against the Afghans in the Second Afghan War.Fighting against Turks in the First World War.Staying loyal to the British at the height of Punjab Martial Law of 1919,Khilafat Movement down till 1947.Loyalty is a virtue and an asset ! The navy showed some spine when it revolted against the British in 1946, but that was an exception !

It is an armys command structure that all owe their position to the army chief.Hence all officers who retired recently or even after October 1999 owed their position to General Musharraf.Even the loudmouth Tariq Pervez was sacked by Musharraf once Nawaz Sharif was the prime minister.This is so because the military usurpers of Pakistan destroyed political leadership in Pakistan right from 1954 , breeding PIA shaver type hybrid Murgh e Dast Amoz prime ministers and politicians who were spineless or owed their success to military usurpers.The game started from 1954,perfected by Ayub , Yahya,Zia and Musharraf.Thus once Musharraf removed Nawaz Sharif and started supposedly cleaning the Augean stables of Pakistan he was cleaning the dirt that had accumulated in Pakistan from 1954-58 thanks to the systematic manner in which docilty ,timidity and mediocrity was instilled in Pakistani politicians by Pakistans military usurpers from 1958 to date ! Nawaz after all was the gift of Pakistani military usurpers to Pakistan.Mr Z.A Bhutto , although a great statesman was introduced to Pakistani politics and higher corridors of power by Major General Iskandar Mirza and the selef promoted field marshal Ayub !

Pakistans civilian rulers , politicians in waiting must understand that the office of vice chief was created by the military usurper Zia to ensure that the office of army chief and president are combined in one person.Musharraf is merely following the same tradition.The changes in army were introduced since the outgoing vice chief had completed his tenure.Ethnically no change was made since the previous vice chief belonged to the category culturally classified as Hindustani Muslim by the British and the present vice chief also belongs to the same category.Zia also followed the same tradition promoting two officers successively to

the vice chief rank who belonged to Zias ethnic group i.e Punjabi Muslims. A dear Sindhi friend of mine from the Intelligence Bureau states that Zias grandfather came from Saharanpur in UP to Jullundhur but by 1940 Zia was a plain Punjabi albeit educated at Saint Stephen College Delhi.So if Musharraf elevates two ethnic compatriots to vice chief rank he has merely followed a precedent !

It is interesting theoretical discussion to state that Musharraf vowed to take off his uniform in December 2004.In politics promises are made to be broken and Musharrafs decision to retain the uniform is what political expediency demands !

The war against terror is an interesting political expedient much misused by Pakistani politicians.The question is that both PPP and PML are equally loyal to the Americans ! They would gladly accept subservience to the USA ! As the Punjab , Frontier and Sindhi feudals accepted British supremacy in 1843-49 and till 1947 ! The tragedy of the Pakistani nation is that they are led by leaders who are equally keen to be slaves of USA ! All they want is power and patronage ! Ideologically there is no difference between Musharraf , PPP and PML ! The USA has a wide choice of lackeys and if they regard Musharraf as the best bet , they must be having their reasons !Pakistan has no shortage of job seekers and social climbers !

Now coming to the question of concentrating all power in one hand.This is the Pakistani political tradition.Mr Jinnah wanted to have a presidential form of government and retained the right of governor general to dismiss assemblies in 1947 . Liaquat Ali Khan wanted to rule without elections ! Ayub Khan hated having a prime minister.Mr Z.A Bhutto wanted one man rule ! Zia wanted one man rule ! Nawaz Sharif wanted to be Ameer ul Momineen ! So if Musharraf wants the same what is the difference ! The Pakistani political parties are too weak to overthrow him ! The Pakistani common man is too much under the pressure of inflation and poverty to think about politics !

As far as the so called war on terror , all Pakistani politicians and generals would be equally keen to appease the USA and gain or retain power ! The tradition of greed for Jangi Inams established once loyal and disciplined soldiers marched from Mardan to Delhi or Kabul To Kandahar or toHejaz to fire bullets at Khana I Kaba is very much alive !

All are panting to please the new US New World Order Commercial Company ! It was the British viceroy in 1857 , today its the USPresident ! We are doomed led by collaborators par excellence ! The rest is fiction !

December will be just another month and a dispassionate glance at Pakistans hopeless and dismal political history proves that Musharraf must not take off the uniform if he wants to survive ! Power and loyalty in this unfortunate state are linked to office.Seven days after his retirement General Beg told this scribe that visitors who came to meet him disppeared as soon as he took off his uniform on that great date 17 August . Musharraf is a good student of history !

It is a fiction to think that the new breed of officers in Pakistan Army after December 2004 would be different from those of the so called Afghan Jihad of 1979-89 . The qusetion is who fought the Afghan war ! How many Pakistani officers died in it ? Less than 2 ! The ones who fought it were the cannon fodder !The tradition established since 1792 is to support the best paymaster ! In 1792 and 1857 it was the English East India Company , in 1954-65 this paymaster was the USA. Again from 1979 to 1989 it was the USA . Again since 2001 tillto date it is the USA.The army has retained its disciplined character ! Jihad was only used as a convenient slogan to mobilise the Muslim masses ! Like Islam was used as a convenient slogan from 1940 till 1947 by the same Muslim feudals who had recruited soldiers for the British in 1857 , WW One and WW Two ! The Indian feudals led by Muslim feudals from Punjab , UP and Frontier took the British for a ride playing on British fears about another rebellion after 1857 ! Since 1947 the Muslim elite has been playing on US fears of USSR initially and now Islamic fundamentalism ! The losers in the whole game are the Muslim masses who are getting more and more alienated and every penny of US aid spent on aiding Muslim tinpot dictators and kings/emirs are flowing into a bottom less gutter !

What major powers do not understand is that the Muslim elite uses the slogan " Islam in danger" once their personal class interests are threatened as in 1940-47 or when US imposed sanctions on Pakistan from 1989 till 2001.This elite uses the slogan of Jihad once they hope to get US aid as in the Afghan War or once they have no hope of getting US aid and need cannon fodder for dying in Kashmir,Afghanistan or elsewhere.Ghareeb Ka Bacha

dies in Jihad and the General and the feudal-industrialists son gets eduacted at Wharton,Yale or at Oxbridge landing in cosy bank jobs or in multi national companies !

The intelligence corps creation was one act of dynamism by the then Major General Hamid Gul.It was created so that intelligence is professionalised and removed from the whims of thearmys field commanders.Concentrated to serve Pakistan rather than a divisional or corps commander and this bifurcation has improved Pakistani intelligence communitys performance.Ideology unfortunately remains a weak factor and personal advancement is the leading life script of the vast bulk of the officer class, heavily drawn from the lower middle class and the opportunistic middle classes for whom the army is a career like WAPDA ! True that the more idealistic ones died at Kargil but the mainstream breed survived in the more plush command and staff assignments rarely exposing them to fire !

The new ISI man is another safe bet for Musharraf since traditionally this slot has been occupied by conformists and careerists less some relatively brighter officers like Hameed Gul.The 10 Corps is very important in Pakistans power equation by virtue of having its location in Islamabad-Rawalpindi but the Mardan to Delhi tradition ensures that 10 Corps Commanders are loyal and obedient soldiers ! Loyalty pays and loyalty to the best paymaster is the best policy ! That is why the Guides marched from Mardan to Delhi and the 1st and 3rd Punjab Cavalry marched from Kabul to Kandahar ! That is why a Frontier Force Regiment gunned down 400 Punjabis at Jallianwalla Bagh in 1919 ! That is why a regiment from Punjab group fired at Mecca ! There were few exceptions like the Wazirs , Mahsuds and Tirah Afridis from 1849 till 1947 but they paid a heavy price and are paying it till to date ! Perhaps some Ranghars who led the 1857 revolt or the 5th Light Infantry revolt at Singapore in 1915.These are however lone exceptions.There are no Von Stauffenbergs in this bastion of docility meekness and opportunism.That requires breeding and centuries of tradition of soldiering.We are a race saved by the English East India Companys Bengal Army from the Sikhs in 1849 ! Or by US military and economic aid from 1947 till to date !

There is another misconception to thionk that ethnicity makes a difference. A 10 Corps commander from any ethnicity will be equally disciplined and loyal since the whole military

system rewards docility and conformity and punishes dynamism and adherence to strong convictions.The resultant breed regardless of ethnicity is the same ! Lacking independent judgement, good followers , good obedient sons !

The perception that Musharraf was favouring urdu speaking officers has not been laid to rest .This was followed by Zia once he favoured his own ethnic group and followed by Musharraf.This is a human failing and Musharraf is no exception.The key office of vice chief proves it.It was a Punjabi office in Zias time till junejo brought Beg Sahib who was viewed by Zia as an anachronism.

There is also some misconception about the Joint Chiefs office.Once General Sharif was promoted to this office a subedar from his unit congratulated him sarcastically stating that Sir Mubarik Ho , Aap Pakistan Fauj kay Sadar Fazal Illahi ban gaye hain ! This office is that of the harmless grandfather of the armed forces ! This was what it was designed to be in any case at least after July 1977 !

Alas when people say knowledge is power ! Pakistans history proves that power is the GHQ ! The 10 Corps or the 111 Brigade ! The rest is fiction !

I agree with some scribes once they say that Pakistans history is chequered ! Chequered and an undoubted political failure ! Ruled by usurpers motivated by the Mardan to Delhi tradition or by Murghe Dast Amoz premiers.Life goes on !

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A.H Amin is author of " Pakistan Army till 1965" , " Indo Pak Wars from 1947-71-A Strategic and Operational Analysis" , " Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-59 Reinterpreted" , " Man's Role in History" and ex Assistant Editor " Defence Journal" and ex Executive Editor of " Globe " Karachi.He is a columnist contributing to " NATION" , " NEWS" , "PRAVDA" , "DEFENCE JOURNAL" , " GLOBE" ,"PAKISTAN ARMY JOURNAL" , " CITADEL" and " www.orbat.com" analysis section.

pavocavalry@yahoo.com pavocavalry@kurdland.com BALOCHISTAN –AN INDIGENOUS STRUGGLE Published in NATION Lahore March 2005

A.H. Amin pavocavalry@kurdland.com The author is former Assistant Editor of Defense Journal, tank corps retired major of Pakistan Army and author of the Pakistan Army till 1965 used as a reference material at various military academies and institutions in the world including US Army War College Carlisle and US Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth.

What is happening in Balochistan once again merely proves the profound truth in the adage " Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it". Once again Pakistan's military junta is taking Pakistan towards possible civil war and secession. The writing is clear on the wall. This is a brief strategic analysis of the Balochistan situation. Wars since 1945 are fought by proxy. Without formal declaration and in the shadows. Balochistan is simply another such war. The essence of the whole affair is a combination of two factors. One being real or perceived injustices meted out to the Baloch race by the Pakistani federal establishment or mafia. Second being the complex geopolitical game being played since 1989 ,the high point of which was 9/11. Balochistan has been the Dravidian or aboriginal province of Pakistan. Having been educated in Quetta the intense albeit secret manner in which federal government personnel, both civil and military, despised the Baloch was a crystal clear fact for anyone with links to the above mentioned select mafia. Gas was discovered in early 1950s but Balochistan denied it till 1976 when the first significant LPG gas project was completed in Quetta. Later a gas pipeline was also laid till Quetta, with much show off by the military junta of the usurper Zia when Balochistan was headed by a corps commander and relative father in law of Zia son who had absented himself from 1971 war and who late General Eftikhar Shaheed had vowed to have shot after the war for cowardice. Gwadar, another controversial project was started twenty years too late by the present military junta. Gwadar far from being viewed as a positive project is perhaps rightly viewed by the Baloch as another Khokrapar railway conspiracy to turn the Baloch into a minority. The matter is simple. In 1969 once the Yahya Martial Law was imposed a major Baloch leader explained to the General Officer Commanding 16 Division in Quetta that development in Balochistan would mean turning the Baloch indigenous population into a minority and this would not be acceptable to any Baloch whether a common man or a Sardar. This faux pas was committed by Musharraf once he started Gwadar. Interestingly Gwadar a future Chinese naval base and a city that would turn the Baloch into a minority in their own province is a thorn both for the Baloch and the USA. A deadly possible convergence of interest in a delicate geopolitical era once USA is the only Roman Empire fighting the Barbarians ! The brilliant Pakistani military junta led by arm chair strategists think that they defeated the Baloch in 1948, 1958, 1964, 1968 and 1976 and would do it again. This is a grave error. An imperial strategic blunder. Today with USA in Afghanistan, Afghanistan being the new USPhilippines , Balochistan is a different ball game. The new US strategic agenda is possibly the creation of a Kurd State. If it is extended to creation of a new Baloch state, it should not be a surprise. An independent Baloch state would give the USA an excellent base which could possibly replace/supplement both Afghanistan and Pakistan to strike at future strategic targets in Central Asia, Middle East and Eastern China. A clean corridor from the Indian Ocean till Central Asia for pipelines etc with no problem clients like the Pashtun Taliban or the Pakistani military junta with its very own personal power problems. Militarily Pakistan Army if committed in Baluchistan is certainly bound to come to greater grief than it did in any of its internal wars. The Baloch guerrillas with a paltry 2 Million USD per month can commit some 3 to 5 Pakistani divisions doing exactly what the Indians were doing in Kashmir! An independent

Balochistan would be a strategic opportunity for USA. Linking US occupied Afghanistan directly with the Indian Ocean. A few billion USD pumped in the possibly independent state, with an ambassador like Zalmay Khalilzad supervising distribution of funds can make Balochistan more prosperous than Dubai. A very naieve statement was made by the Governor of Balochistan blaming the entire situation to the influx of external support from Balochistans North and Northwestern border. There is no doubt that the present war in Balochistan is indigenous. External support succeeds once a guerrilla war has internal roots. Today the war in Balochistan has the combined support of the Baloch masses and the Sardar. The last attempt to save Balochistan from becoming another Sindh dominated by ethnic mafias from outside the province or mosre closely an Australia populated by whites. What should be the response. First the Pakistani military junta needs to stop the construction of new cantonments. Second should be careful control on population of Gwadar. All non Baloch doing business in Gwadar must not be allowed the right to vote in any elections held in Gwadar. Third control of Gwadar being given to the Balochistan Provincial Government. Fourth Balochistan Provincial Government allowed to make direct economic ventures with foreign investors so that the Islamabad non Baloch Federal mafia is sidelined. Fifth cancellation of all land deals in Gwadar .The Federal Government may compensate the losers. It would be less costly than fighting another 1971 war in which the Pakistan Armed Forces were humiliated and severely damaged both materially and psychologically. Sixth transfer of control of all mineral and gas installations to the Balochistan Provincial Government. The Federal Government may monitor the facilities. The Pakistan military junta needs to understand that the best way to protect the Baloch oil and gas resources are the proud chests of the Baloch race and not the paid soldiers of an army with a strong pre 1947 mercenary tradition, having fired at its own people in 1857, in 1919 and at the Khana i Kaba ! The Balochistan war may be fatal for Pakistan. If USSR was disintegrated what is Pakistan? A small fly! A microscopic one. Lastly the Pakistani military junta needs to remember Kissingers saying , to be an enemy of USA is ok , but to be its friend is deadly! May Allah instill some sanity in the macho men leading Pakistan wearing camouflaged commando jackets in sheer violation of the " Army Dress Regulations" of Pakistan Army! The military leaders must read a little Shakespeare "The fault dear Brutus is not in our stars , but ourselves". For Gods sake stop blaming the Indians, Jews or Americans. Justice begins at home and Pakistan's civil and military rulers have exploited Balochistan since 1947. Once they admit this fact all shall be OK.

Strategic Naivette-A.H Amin-June 2005-Afghanistan Strategy Strategic Naivette

A.H Amin 23 June 2005 There is little doubt that Afghanistan is the new US Philipines just like Pakistan is the old US Philipines.Afghanistan was never the invincible tract of land as projected in cold war anti Soviet propaganda.Saved from Russian domination by British Grand Strategy Afghanistan initially followed a skilful foreign policy soliciting aid from both USA and USSR but the path was narrow and finally the fall from the narrow rope on which Afghanistan had walked came in 1973 when at last the Soviets gained ascendancy.My old comrade Watanjar removed Daud Khan as swiftly as he had brought him with all the dash and elan that only a Paktiawal has !Then began the grand party for the Pakistani military junta led by the tailors son Zia.The Pakistani military junta had a grand party gobbling huge chunks of US aid alongwith CIA sleuths,Afghan so called Mujahideen etc. The party ended in 1989 when the Soviets withdrew,not because the Afghans were more martial or the ISI subtle but because the USSR had its own very personal Russian internal problems.Note that while 60,000 Americans died in Vietnam only 14,000 Soviets about one third Muslim died in Afghanistan.One may give 100 marks to the agency that removed the Zia regime from the scene by the grand strategic crash of the metal Lockheed bird carrying the Pakistani military junta straight down to the Hindu Shamshan Ghat (where the Hindus burn their dead) near the bank of the Sutlej River on that grand glorious very hot summer day of 17 August 1988.Mangoes Zia was fond of and that may have been a link to that final solution " Man Goes" ! Anyhow it was a great achievement ! I would say far greater than 9/11, with far lesser human casualties ! One valuable casualty was the US Ambassador , probably Jewish , but in Grand Strategy there are sacrifices and Raphel no doubt was a martyr ! Where is Jihad without Stingers ! Where are the Mujahideen ? The Talibans are motivated but they can snipe against USA without any success for next 100 years unless they find a good foreign patron.Pakistan is a puppy.Taliban need a larger donor.They should borrow a leaf from Afghan NGOs.Find a good donor and then buy a cruising and a nice house in Wazir Akbar Khan ! The Khalqis and Parchamis had an ideology what is the ideology of the Afghan Interim Govt ? The gist of the strategic-political situation is as following :--The Taliban or all anti US forces are not a Pakistan specific phenomena but have links with the whole Islamic world. The present Afghan regime is as potent as Shah Shuja,Karmal or any puppet regime. The Pakistani military junta is undergoing a crisis of rediscovery and rethinking. It is not possible to seal the PakAfghan border. The USA is in Afghanistan for at least three to five decades with a precise tangible strategic agenda.Like any regime it will not withdraw until it has made its investment cost effective or unless its strategy leads it to a Clausewitzian culminating point. Plots like Zalmay assasination attempt etc are just one part of the psy ops war being waged to reduce Pakistan to size.Fair enough since USA has legitimate strategic concerns. The USA has failed to hit the real centre of gravity of anti US forces which is psychological not physical i.e not Helmand,or Pakistani tribal area etc but ideological.

The USA has so far failed to pump in enough muscle or grey matter in the Afghan Interim regime.It is not even as much as 10 % potent compared to the Najib or even Karmal regime. The real US targets are not Taliban or Islamists but far larger actors.Central Asia ,China and the Middle East while the Pakistani military junta with its old fashioned nukes is a smaller puppy which can be fixed with one well planned strike from Bagram.No big deal . The real danger to the USA is a possible combination of anti US forces aided by China and Russia.In Russia the problem is political and Russia needs a new Lenin or a Trotsky to reorganise,otherwise it has the strategic muscle.China is also gearing up but will take another ten years to match USA.This ten year is the critical time span and USA has to fix China by 2015.That is one main reason why it is in Afghanistan.

FEDERAL STATE TO CONFEDERATION 16 November 2005 History does not move in straight lines.It is manipulated by the privileged classes and by personalities in key positions of political or institutional strength.Movements and policies are justified in the name of race or ideology while ulterior motives are at work.Countries are created not because of solid ideological or national reasons but because of clash of egos ! Some states are created or owe their existence to clash of two great powers like Afghanistan and Nepal or Luxemburg or Finland . Some were created because of inadvertent affects of policies of Imperialist powers like " Divide and Rule". India and the regions that include Pakistan and Bangladesh was never a country but it was united several times by invaders.Similarly Afghanistan was the highway of conquest and the modern state of Afghanistan was created only in 1747. It is time now to revise the concept of the strong federal state led by an Iron man and to recognize the nationality principle . Pakistan was created not because the Muslim elite loved Islam but because they feared Hindu and Sikh economic , political and institutional domination.Initially Muslim separatism as Francis Robinsons classical research proves originated from the British Indian province of UP (United Province).The key issue was not ideological but social i.e inability to compete with the more educated and financially stronger Hindus.This separatism later spread to Muslim majority provinces where the Muslim landlords and Pirs under heavy debt to Hindu money lenders joined the Muslim League in order to drive out their Hindu debtors. Pakistan was created in 1947 and soon the Pakistani generals in league with British trained civil servants and feudals started a joint Jihad to destroy Pakistan's democracy which finally succeeded in 1958.Since 1958 Pakistani military junta has ruled the country and used the Kashmir Dispute as a reason for gobbling up Pakistan's 70 % budget.In the process Pakistani military miserably failed in 1965 War despite significant superiority over Indians in number and quality of equipment.The matter is discussed in great detail in my book The Pakistan Army till 1965 held at US Army Staff College and

War College Libraries and also at Air War College Karachi Library.The Staff College Quetta had refused to accept it in their library. All along Pakistani military junta used various pretexts to solicit Western military and financial aid,the ulterior motive being to consolidate its own position in the Pakistani power politics.First it used the Soviet threat to get US aid.Later it used Afghan war as an excuse for getting aid and now it is using the Islamist Threat as an excuse for getting aid.Even this eqrthquake is a golden opportunity for this avaricious and corrupt military junta. Recently General Musharraf has started another jugglery show claiming that he is the man of peace.A good move since Kashmir and USSR are no longer in vogue.Musharraf states that he wants friendship with India and Israel.We do not question his good intentions but taken in depth this signals Musharraf's acceptance that 1947 partition of India was a faux pas.If so many Muslims were killed in 1947 , 1965 and 1971 then what was the use of the whole exercise in futility.If Israel is now being engaged by Pakistan's military junta now why was it not done earlier ? Why this whole game ? Seen in depth Pakistan's military junta has an institutional interest in peace now.It wanted war when it suited its institutional interests and it wants peace when it suits Musharraf ! Seen in this context Pakistani military junta may be initiating a process similar to the one initiated by Gorbachev that led to disintegration of USSR. Surely if India is not a threat , why have such a large army ? Why not undo the federal structure and let Balochistan and Sindh and NWFP be states as initially hinted in the Pakistan Resolution of 1940.Why should Pakistan Army be building cantonments in Balochistan ? What Musharraf is indirectly signaling is that partition was a blunder . That war is good when it is good for Pakistani military junta and bad when it does not suit the Pakistani military junta. Three wars fought for no reason.Afghanistan destroyed by pursuing an adventurist and a genocidal foreign policy by all starting from Ayub,Zia down to Naseerullah Babar and even Musharraf as he stood before 9/11. The West must not forget that Musharraf may prove to be a liability rather than an asset for the world in the long run.What must be understood is the fact that Musharrafs appeasement of the West will lead to a massive Islamist backlash.Musharraf is far more fragile now than than anyone can imagine.Cheap adventurism as well as cheap appaeasement are equally dangerous.The Pakistan Army was a laughing stock when they bogged down at Khem Karan .Now Musharraf has proved that all was a grand strategic fraud.If peace with India was good why did not the Pakistani generals did it earlier.Why , so that they could gobble 70 to 80 % of Pakistans budget every year since 1958 ! This is a serious question which no Pakistani politician is asking.Why one million Bengalis butchered by the army in 1971 and at least 50,000 Baloch killed since 1947 ? Why this aimless genocide.Why were 1 million Afghans killed from 1978 till to date just because the military usurper Zia wanted US money and Stingers to sell in the black market ! Why is everyone silent !

Musharraf's short term theatrics need to be reviewed seriously.If all that he states is right then Pakistan will have to re-think its ideology .If Pakistan leaves its ideology then it is a state comprising nationalities , a multi ethnic state.The Pakistani military junta must not forget that since 1958 Pakistan was an army with a state rather than a state with an army.If now Pakistani military junta makes grand claims of peace in order to please USA , Pakistani is on the road to Balkanisation. What Musharraf has initiated is a dangerous game.Paying in the short run but self destructive for the Pakistani military junta in the long run.Possibly good for the region if a self serving military machine is reduced to size.Possibly dangerous for the region if a backlash starts and Islamic extremism is the main beneficiary.Musharaffs policies need to be questioned not only by the Pakistani people but by the whole world. In the Pakistani context following may be the implications :-•

• •

Pakistan's smaller provinces may question the rationale for Pakistan .If India is not a threat and Afghanistan is a friend why not have an idependent Baloch ,Pashtun or Sindhi state .Why have a large army which has been involved in a dangerous foreign policy and in aggression against Pakistan's neighbours.The Durand Line may have significance for the Pakistani junta but for the Baloch and Pashtun it is a Berlin Wall which will become meaningless one day. Why should Pakistan have a nuclear programme and a large standing army .Why should not the US insist that Pakistan reduce its army and dismantle its nuclear warheads. Conversely if the Pakistan Army is reduced why should the smaller provinces stay with the Pakistani Federal state.It is only the coercive force of the army that has kept the Pakistani confederation together. Why should not Pakistan's neighbours demand a redrawing of boundaries.

Musharraf's policies and his petty opportunism is a grave danger for the region.It is possible that in the end his policies may prove to be seriously counterproductive for world peace.The Pakistani military junta needs to stop playing games which it has been playing since 1954 when it entered Pakistani politics as a subversive force and since 192 when it entered regional politics as a subversive adventurist force.The USA must understand that they are not dealing with rational good natured men but with crafty opportunists who may prove to be a serious strategic liability. Who has given the Pakistani military junta to decide what is good and what is bad for Pakistan.If their claims are to be believed as now Musharraf states Pakistan was a faux pas ! Or is it possible that Musharraf is USA's Trojan Horse to deal with the " Final Solution" of the Pakistani WMDs. Ex Editor Globe , Ex Assistant Editor Defence Journal,PUBLICATIONS:-- Pakistan Army till 1965,Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-59 Reinterpreted,Indo Pak Wars from 1947-71-A Strategic and Operational Analysis,The Essential Clausewitz, held at Library of Congress,Combined Arms Research Library US Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth,US Army War College Library Carlisle,US Army Armor School Fort Knox Library,Columbia University LibraryUS Military Academy West Point ,columnist

PRAVDA,NATION,DAWN,FRIDAY TIMES,SOUTH ASIATRIBUNE,STATESMAN PESHAWAR,CITADEL MAGAZINE OF COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE QUETTA,PAKISTAN ARMY JOURNAL,INDIAN STRATEGIC REVIEW, WWW.ORBAT.COM,FRONTIER POST,THE NEWS,BALOCH OSTOMAN,BALOCH.COM,MILITARY AND SECURITY REVIEW.

Published in Afghanistan Times August 2006 Afghanistan - A Strategic Analysis A.H Amin Kabul 2006 August

The present war in Afghanistan has many dimensions, many shades and many players, known as well as hidden. Most of the analysis fail to assess this subtle war and thus arrive at conclusions which are superficial. Salient aspects of this war are as following:- A Proxy War - A combination of State and non State Actors - Known and hidden actors - A case of hunting with the hounds and running with the foxes - Ethnic Factors - The Great Myth of 80,000 Troops - A case of large spaces and insufficient force ratios - A case of inconclusive civil war - A case of Long Term US Strategic Interests and its clash with regional actors - A case of an undeclared Indo Pak War being fought in Afghanistan. - US-Pakistan relationship is complex. - Pakistan at cross roads of choice of direction. We will discuss the above listed aspects in the succeeding paragraphs. A Proxy WarThe Afghan War was not war of Afghans against Afghans but a combination of Super Powers and Regional Powers backing local Afghan factions to achieve their selfish political ends. The first phase saw USSR backing its PDPA subsidiaries and USA backing the so called Mujahideen with Pakistan and Iran as regional players backing various factions of so called Mujahideen. This face lasted from 1978 to 1992. The second phase saw a relative withdrawal of USA and another series of Proxy Wars with Russia , Iran and India generally backing some groups and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and possibly China backing some other groups.

This phase lasted from 1992 till 2001. The third phase which continues saw entry of USA and its NATO allies and camp followers physically occupying Afghanistan and opposed by the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Hizb e Islami with non State actors backing them, while Pakistan pursuing a double game strategy of being US ally as well as having a ulterior strategy of secret relationship with the anti US forces. In this face the USA and its coalition allies have as their proxies the de facto and de jure Afghan Government while the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Hizb e Islami are Pakistani proxies. USA has a long term strategic agenda in the region which could include, final reduction of Iran, denuclearising Pakistan and domination of Central Asia and a possible long term confrontation with China. To take Taliban or Al Qaeda as isolated actors is a fallacy. Similarly the USA and its allies have long term strategic goals in Afghanistan. A combination of State and non State Actors9/11 was a decisive moment in history of warfare. It saw the triumph of non state actors over state actors. The US mainland which was never attacked in two world wars and throughout the Cold War was successfully attacked. If it was done by the Israeli Mossad as Pakistan's General Hameed Gul thinks it was a miscalculated conspiracy since in the long run it undermined USA's reputation as an impregnable country. If it was done by non State actors like Al Qaeda then they deserve 100 marks for an unparalleled military feat. The most significant feature of the Soviet Afghan War of 1978-1992 was a fusion of non State and State actors. State actors like USA and Pakistan used non State actors like the so called Mujahideen as proxies to inflict attrition on State actors i. e the USSR and the PDPA regime and their armed forces. As a result the non State actors acquired technology and skills that in the long run would threaten State actors. There was a transition to Fourth Generation Warfare in which the state was no longer the stronger player. Non State actors challenged the supremacy of the very idea of state by using ingenious expedients, which were cost effective in the sense that devices of sabotage worth a small amount could destroy property or installations a 100, 000 times their small value. Trade and business which was the real foundation of the supremacy of the West over the east or the North over the South came under threat. The Al Qaeda or the Islamists threatened the very basis of Western civilisation since the invasion of Rome by barbarians or the destruction of Byzantine and Persian Empires by the Arab Muslims. 9/11 was the start of an undeclared Third World War which has no fixed battlefields and is non linear. It can see an attack in New York and in Madrid or in Tokyo. It has no centre of gravity. The two most affected countries in this war are Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both are under threat of destabilisation and possible Balkanisation by non State actors. The non State actors in both the countries have a certain power base small or big in the populace of both the countries. While the de facto/de jure Afghan Government is supported by the USA and its allies, Pakistan has support of China and a large number of non State actors i. e a bunch of parties like the Taliban, Al Qaeda and local Pakistani religious parties. The US aim seems to be long term and not mere short term neutralisation of Taleban. However in Afghanistan the USA lacks freedom of manoeuvre because it is bogged down in Iraq and seems no clear cut strategy to deal with Iran and Pakistan. In this complicated strategic situation the non State actors are in a position to attack USA and its allies at a time and place of their own chosing and USA and its allies are strategically overstretched. Known and hidden actorsThe ongoing Afghan war has known and hidden actors. The known actors are Pakistan, India, Iran, USA and its allies. The hidden actors could be Russia, China and Russian Central Asian satellites. For the

opponents of USA Afghanistan and Iraq are two great strategic opportunities to bleed USA and its allies white. Russia has been reasserting its muscle in Central Asian Republics. USA was thus booted out of Uzbekistan only recently. China is strategically dominant in Pakistan with the Gwadar Port possibly becoming an important Chinese naval base in the near future. Both China and Russia would not like to see USA dominating their soft underbelly. Who is financing the Taliban , Al Qaeda and other anti US forces remains a big mystery. Since all this happens very secretly it is difficult to identify all the actors. If the Taliban's are Pakistan's proxy , whose proxy is Pakistan ? Is Iran alone in the arena against USA or has it got secret backers. Who is backing the anti US forces in Iraq. Why is the north of Afghanistan unduly quiet. Is it total serenity or a calm before the storm ? If ISI and CIA are the major intelligence actors in Afghanistan , what is the role of the Russian FSB, Iran's Itlaat and India's RAW ? Undoubtedly Afghanistan is the Casablanca of all Intelligence agencies of the world. What is Israel's role and what is the Chinese factor ? Is the Russian FSB alone or is it using its Central Asian Satellite republics diplomats in the intelligence game in Afghanistan ? How much of the Al Qaeda's secret money transfers are coming from Dubai and how much from Hong Kong. In Intelligence wars it is the rule to take everyone as a bastard till he proves to be otherwise. A case of hunting with the hounds and running with the foxes In the aftermath of 9/11 while under US pressure the Pakistani military junta adopted the policy of "hunting with the hounds and running with the foxes". The hounds being USA and its camp followers and the foxes being foxes. The Pakistani military junta assessed that it was politically expedient to be USA's good dog catcher while covertly retaining the option of a secret alliance with the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The Pakistani military junta clearly saw the writing on the wall that USA in the final reckoning is a Christian power having the ultimate aim of denuclearising Pakistan and reducing the Islamic world to the status of a petty subsidiary menial vassal. Right or wrong , this was the Pakistani military junta's assessment about USA. Only history will prove if this is right or wrong. Already US General Abizaid has confirmed US intentions when he said that the war with Islamists may start a Third World War. The Third World War had however already started since 9/11. May be much before that , around 1990 or 1992. Meanwhile while at least outwardly acting as USA's dog catcher, selling Al Qaeda operatives to USA, as Pakistan's General Musharraf admitted in his autobiography, the Pakistani military junta started losing credibility in the eyes of the Pakistani populace. The Waziristan military action launched by the Pakistani military junta is end 2003, further reduced its credibility in the eyes of the Pakistani populace and specially the proud tribal Pashtuns who had defied central power since long, whether it was the Mughal Muslim king, the Sikh Maharaja or the British Viceroy. For the first time in Pakistan's history a serving corps commander was attacked in Karachi in end of June 2004. These factors led to a subtle change of course in Pakistani military junta. The high point of this change of course was the Waziristan accord of September 2006. Later under US pressure however the Pakistani military junta was once again forced to change the policy and a fresh operation was commenced in Waziristan in mid 2007. It appears that hunting with the hounds and running with the foxes has now been generally abandoned. With Presidential election scheduled to be held in 2008 General Musharraf needs to have a more positive image of a good Muslim. He is a great follower of the adage " Keep up appearances;there lies the test. The world would give thee credit for the rest.

Outwards be fair, however foul within;sin if thou wilt, but then in secret sin". In 2001 Pakistan was under heavy US pressure but by 2006 the Pakistani military leadership saw light of the day, that blindly following the USA would seriously reduce their credibility in the eyes of the populace and major gains both financially and strategically had been made by appeasing the USA between 2001 and 2005. Now was the time for a change of posture. As the Holy Bible says " a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing……a time to keep and a time to cast away". Ethnic FactorsEthnic factors are very central in the Afghan War. During the Soviet Afghan war one very significant political change took place in Afghanistan. The Pakistani intelligence agencies were successful in producing a divide between the official Mohammadzai line of confrontation with Pakistan among the Pashtuns of Afghanistan. Pashtuns of Afghanistan thus started viewing Pakistan in a more positive light. Moreover the Pashtun leadership was transformed and changed hands from a previously more dynastic one to a more ideological one with previously unknown characters in the lead rather than the traditional Durrani Pashtuns in the lead. Linguistically also the more dominant Pashtun leaders were now the chaste Pashto speaking Islamists rather than the traditional sophisticated and refined Persianised Durrani Pashtuns, who talked about Pashtunistan but could hardly speak Pashto. When Pakistan at least outwardly sided with the USA in the aftermath of 9/11, it alienated a sizeable proportion of its Pashtun population. The Pashtuns are politically speaking the most significant ethnic group in Pakistan after the Punjabis. They have a sizeable representation in the armed forces and civil service ranging from 30 to 35 % . Politically they are the junior partners of Punjabis. In various insurgencies in Pakistan starting from the Baloch insurgency of 1948 till the Sindh Insurgency of 1983 and the Karachi Insurgency of 1986-96 the Pashtuns have been solid partners of the Punjabis. Pashtun separatist parties like the Awami National Party of Asfandyar Wali Khan and Afrasiab Khattak do good business outside Afghanistan but have very limited political clout in Pakistani Pashtuns. Long time Pashtun activist Juma Khan Sufi who stayed for many years in Kabul and married PDPA minister Sulaiman Laiq's daughter has been highly critical of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan in his book on Bacha Khan published in 2005. When Pakistani military junta sided with USA in 2001 and launched the Waziristan operation in 2003-6 , it lost all the credibility in Pashtuns that it had earned in 54 years since Pakistan was created in 1947. The Punjabi dominated army was visibly upset. Without Pashtuns Pakistan's integrity was in danger. When the Taliban state was overrun although not conquered by the USA in 2001, the Pashtun perception in Pakistan was that a Pashtun state had been overrun. The Pakistani military junta consciously sought to change the perception and the various Waziristan accords were a step in this direction. With Balochistan already in revolt and the Sindhis feeling deprived the Punjabis could not afford to lose the Pashtuns. In Afghanistan also the politics has now changed at least in the south from being tribal centred to ideology centred. This change took place in the period 1980-1990 and various attempts by the PDPA regime to mobilise the Achakzais and Afridis made many of these tribal leaders richer , but failed to significantly alter the military situation in strategic or even tactical terms. The Great Myth of 80, 000 TroopsAfghanistan is full of overpaid Western journalists who have a few pet themes but hardly anyone of these have researched into the Pakistani claim of 80, 000 troops being deployed on the Afghan Pakistan Border to cordon and interdict the Taliban and Al Qaeda. As per the

research of this scribe, Pakistani regular troops in the apparent Anti Islamist role in NWFP and Balochistan provinces bordering Afghanistan do not exceed10, 000 actual fighting men. Waziristan having two brigades not exceeding 5, 000 fighting strength and Balochistan having a weak infantry brigade in Chaman and Zhob. The other troops are the 100 % Pashtun FC (Frontier Corps) not exceeding 20, 000 actual fighting men along the most affected areas. The FC is highly unreliable in interdicting the Taliban since it is 100 % Pashtun . The vast length of the Pakistani border between Spina Theeza in Chaman sub district and Taftan on the Iranian border , a vast tract about 620 kilometres long has no Pakistan Army regular troops. Major Taliban interdiction takes place from this tract into Kandahar, Helmand and Nimroz. Zhob the rear base of the Taliban for Zabul, Paktika and parts of Kandahar has a undersized infantry brigade at Zhob city and no regular troops guarding the 580 kilometre border opposite Zabul, Paktika and Kandahar. The Pakistani military perception is that any military deployment in this area in large numbers will weaken its main Eastern border with India and alienate the Pashtun population in Baluchistan and NWFP. The FC is a highly corrupt force, in full league with all the crooks and smugglers on the 2, 400 Km long Afghan Pakistan border. A case of large spaces and insufficient force ratios The US and NATO military strength in Afghanistan is a case of of large spaces and insufficient force ratios. The 30, 000 US and NATO forces in Afghanistan can hardly produce 10, 000 troops for actual fighting and all these are highly dispersed. Further these troops are highly expensive in terms of salaries and logistics. A large part of NATO forces simply lack the fire to see the baptism of fire in the volatile Afghan south. Further Islamists or the so called Taliban have a good propaganda theme that the ongoing Low Intensity War in Afghanistan is a Jihad against Christian occupiers. It is fine to theorise in a well furnished office in Kabul that USA and NATO are not occupiers but came for " Komak and Hamkari" but human perception is more absurd. Thus propaganda is successful. The coalition has no strategic plan but is conducting the war in a highly tactical manner with force commanders acting like section or platoon commanders. Perhaps the irony is that they hardly have anything larger than a platoon or company to put in action. With half the money spent on NATO forces, much better Afghan forces could have been raised. NATO forces in Afghanistan are not fighting against Taliban but against space logistics and mechanics. A case of inconclusive civil warThe Afghan Civil War which started in 1978 has still not reached a conclusive end. Hence various Afghan groups have various foreign patrons which are using them as proxies to achieve their own particular national objectives. Disarmament has miserably failed although it has been good for many UN officials getting fat salaries. Disbandment will also fail because the UN or the concerned parties do not have sufficient muscle to enforce it. The result would be instability or potential instability as long as the illegal armed groups retain their political , military and financial clout. A case of Long Term US Strategic Interests and its clash with regional actors Being the centre of the global strategic game Afghanistan in strategic terms is just a stage and not an ultimate end of US strategic thrusts launched in the aftermath of 9/11. The US strategy seems to be to acquire air bases in Afghanistan which can enable to have strategic freedom of manoeuvre in any future contingency, rather than relying on Pakistan for air bases. Thus the emergence of Bagram and Kandahar as two Subic Bay replicas. This US strategic interest is in

clash with the regional powers in neighbourhood of Afghanistan i. e China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and even India in the long run. Pakistan is nly tip of the iceberg of opponents of US presence in Afghanistan. This scribe in a an article published in NATION in Pakistan had identified Afghanistan as USA's strategic opportunity. If USA had a debt of honour to vindicate or avenge Vietnam in Afghanistan , Russia has one to settle in Afghanistan. The Russians have become more subtle but no less ruthless. Half the journalists murdered in Russia since 1991 were murdered in President Putin's tenure from 2000 till 2006. Being the historic highway of conquest Afghanistan provides USA with a Strategic heartland for future operations in geopolitical terms of Mackinder and Mahan. The next decade appears to be a decade of manoeuvre and getting into position by China, USA, Russia and even India. Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian Republics being junior players and tactical garbage collectors of USA, China and Russia. The USA will have multiple vulnerable areas to deal with starting from the very US so called homeland to a wide range of areas including Middle East, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc. There may be temporary stability in some regions but peace will be an illusion. The USA till to date is clueless about how to deal with Iran. By its Iraq faux pas it has already created a vast Shia bloc stretching from Iraq to Lebanon and has made Iran strategically stronger. Pakistan may be less easier to tackle with presidential elections of 2007 approaching and the Pakistani military junta fearful of losing more credibility in the eyes of US populace by being perceived as a doig catcher for USA. A case of an undeclared Indo Pak War being fought in AfghanistanTragically Afghanistan has remained a scene of Indo Pak conflict right from 1947. Both the countries have their proxy groups in Afghanistan. Unless the USA and allies can restrain these two countries in a significant manner Afghanistan would remain unstable for many decades. US-Pakistan relationship is complex US Pakistan relation is complex. This fact was discussed in secret meeting of Pakistani formation commanders from 2001 till 2006 every year. On one side US is a Pakistan ally. On the other side it is an enemy. A Christian power all set to destroy Pakistan's nuclear programme. What is DYNCORP dong in Afghanistan, it has how many Israeli agents dealing with Pakistan. These were hot on the Pakistani formation commanders conference list ?Pakistan at cross roads of choice of direction Pakistan is at cross roads of direction with a highly corrupt military junta and a bunch of crook politicians in alliance with this junta. Elections of 2007 may decide which direction this state will take. For many decades it would remain a strategic threat for USA and the USA would have to bear with it because it has no strategy or if it has one US strategic freedom of manoeuvre would become more and more constricted with China, Russia and India gaining greater strength in the years to come. India will rival China as a power in the next two decades. CONCLUSIONThe centre of gravity of the trouble in Afghanistan is not in Helmand but in the neighbouring countries. The infamous proxy war started in 1978 continues and various regional powers continue to patronise their proxies. The USA has two broad options i. e retain the airbases and intensify the proxy war so that all proxies are bled white, because DDR or DIAG or any kind of ABCDXYZ cannot reduce the proxies to size. The second option is to deal more effectively with the regional actors which may be far more costly. Happy the country that had no history. Afghanistan remains haunted and plagued by its violent history and its neighbours continue to enjoy the fruits of war and crisis in Afghanistan.

With Professor Rasul Amin first Education Minister in Karzai regime.A Mamoond Pashtun from Wattapur in Kunnar Province-Kabul November 2007

TALIBAN WAR IN AFGHANISTAN AS ASSESSED IN OCTOBER 2007

I had written the below article in October 2007. Copies were sent to various defence attaches of USA,UK,NATO countries,NATO HQ,US Central Command Headquarters,various think tanks but not a single feedback or even acknowledgement was received. After having seen both NATO/US troops and Taliban and Afghan National Army and Police closely my assessment is that NATO/US forces do not have that burning fire to fight which a winning army needs.US/NATO forces main motivations are the high salary packages that they get in Afghanistan and to go back in one piece.Most US troops are latinos/blacks/green card soldiers who are there just to pass time.This way wars are not won.I also saw the Britishers in Helmand and they were simply holed up in Camp Bastion ,hardly ever patrolling.I saw this closely while doing a survey for USACE in between Nad i Ali and Camp Bastion and also as a Louis Burger subcontractor in Helmand in 20042005. The Ongoing Taliban War in Afghanistan- A Brief Assessment A.H Amin Published in Defence Journal October 2007 Issue

The Taliban War in Afghanistan has its origins in the Afghan Revolution of 1978.At that time Khalq and Parcham were the two key groups of the Afghan Leftists.The Khalq was the more rigid as well as extremist while the Parcham was more flexible, opportunistic and urbanized.The Khalq in turn had two groups the Pro Tarraki Khalqis and the Pro Hafizullah Amin Khalqis. As the Afghan War intensified after the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979 just like the USA intervened in November 2001 the war became very complicated.The new Afghan Intelligence initially known as AGSA headed by the indomitable Sarwari was later reorganized by Dr Najeeb and was known as the KHAD.When Dr Najeeb became the Afghan President in 1986 the KHAD was headed by Ghulam Farooq Yaqubi from 1986 till his sad suicide in 1992.During this time the KHAD succeeded in having various secret protocols with various Afghan leaders from various factions of the so called Afghan Mujahideen.Most of these protocols were with non Pashtun Mujahid groups.Thus as a result the non Pashtun Mujahid groups were brought closer to the leftist regime and since they were seen as moderates the USSR saw them as future allies in Afghanistan.As a result the non Pashtun areas of the north were relatively undestroyed while the brunt of destruction was borne by Pashtun areas of Afghanistan. General Yaqubi a great intelligence professional knew that if the Mujahids occupied Kabul he was a dead man.He destroyed many secret documents and killed himself when the Mujahids occupied Kabul abandoned by the Khalqis and Parchamis to them for the sake of peace. When Kabul was abandoned by the Khalqis and Parchamis in April 1992 following the last minute betrayal of General Dostum a diehard Parchami till then the Afghan leftists dissolved the party and the Pashtuns joined Hekmatyar's Hizb e Islami while the non Pashtuns joined Ahmad Shah Massouds group of Jamiat I Islami. The ensuing civil war which started after the Mujahid (so called) occupation of Kabul in April 1992 continued till November 2001 when the USA launched Operation Enduring Freedom.During this period a new power alignment took place.The Russians,Iranians and Indian Governments became patrons of the Non Pashtun Groups later known as the Northern Alliance while the Pashtun Groups initially Hikmatyar and later Taliban were supported by Pakistan as well as Saudi Arabia. In a crude way the struggle drifted from ideological lines to ethnic lines with Parchamis who were mostly non Pashtuns joining the Jamiat of Massoud later known as Northern Alliance while the Khalqis who were Pahtuns joined Hekmatyar and later the Taliban. The US invasion of Afghanistan was launched with internal collaboration of the Northern Alliance a largely Non Pashtun dominated alliance against the Taliban who were largely Pashtun.True that the Northern Alliance had some lightweight Pashtuns like Abdul Haq , Abdul Qadeer and Siaf , it was a largely non Pashtun group.This led to an ethnic war in Afghanistan in which the Pashtun majority was pitched against the non Pashtun minority which was a US ally.It became immaterial whether a man was a so called Mujahid or a Khalqi or a Parchami.The dividing line became language i.e whether you were a Pashtun or a non Pashtun.The US tried to change this impression first by introducing Abdul Haq and later Hamid Karzai but the popular perception remains that Afghanistan is no longer a Pashtun dominated country. Operation Enduring Freedom the US operation to invade and occupy Afghanistan in late 2001 was hailed as a new kind of war in the US press.Till to date there is no tangible proof that this operation has succeeded.

According to US claims (Refers - Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war- Carl Conetta-2002-PDA Monograph # 6 , 30 January 2002) following was achieved :-1. A reasonable estimate is that 3,000 to 4,000 Taliban coalition troops died, including those killed in battle, captivity, and by strategic bombardment.(Refers- Kirk Spitzer, "Green Berets outfought, out thought Taliban," USA Today, 7 January 2002, p.1) Among these dead may be 600-800 "Afghan Arabs" affiliated with Al Qaeda (out of an original total of 2,000-3,000). Notably, only a fraction of Al Qaeda fighters -- perhaps 25 percent -- are pledged members of the organization; the remainder are foreign volunteers brought to Afghanistan to fight in the civil war under Al Qaeda auspices. 2. Approximately 7,000 Taliban and foreign troops were prisoners as of 15 January; less than 500 of these had been transferred to US custody. A disproportionate number of the prisoners held by the Northern Alliance militias were foreign fighters, especially Uzbek and Pakistani. 3. Most of the top Taliban leadership has survived the war and eluded capture; many are in Pakistan and seeking to re-integrate into Afghanistan . Of more than three dozen Taliban leaders on the Pentagon's "wanted list," more than 12 have been killed, injured or have defected. 4. At least eight of the 20 top Al Qaeda leaders and aides pursued by the Pentagon in Afghanistan are believed dead. However, only two had been reported captured as of 15 January. Eleven training camps affiliated with Al Qaeda, and many other Al Qaeda facilities in Afghanistan, have been destroyed or overrun. The same US observer analysed US success or failure as following :-1. The Alliance victory and Taliban collapse profoundly altered the national and regional strategic situation in several ways -- none of them auspicious in terms of long-term stability: 2. First, the rapid victory of the Alliance and collapse of the Taliban released centrifugal tendencies throughout Afghanistan , giving warlordism, banditry, and opium production a new lease on life. This essentially erased the one positive feature of the Taliban period. An immediate effect was the aggravation of the country's humanitarian crisis. A longer-term effect will be greater difficulty in building a unified polity and resilient civilian authority. 3. Second, the advance of the Alliance and defeat of the Taliban altered the principal lines of opposition in Afghan society. Rather than following a "Taliban versus anti-Taliban" axis, conflict reoriented along purely ethnic, tribal, and sect lines. Within this, the position of Tajik and Uzbek minority interests advanced disproportionately. This will likely lead to a new bipolar configuration in the country: Pashtun versus non-Pashtun. The ethnic reframing of the Afghan struggle altered the political implications of US military operations in the country, which had focused almost exclusively on Pashtun areas since late-November. 4. Third, the increased salience of ethnic, tribal, and sect lines of division also increased the centrifugal pressures on the international coalition supporting the operation. Notably, the Alliance victory had substantially increased Russian influence in Afghanistan , contrary to US interests and to the dismay of both Pakistan and Iran. Indian interests (tied to the Tajik militias) also advanced substantially. These developments increased the prospects for intensified regional contention over Afghanistan. This is not a brief written by an ISI general but the expert analysis of a US scholar.

The Afghan mission, NATO's first deployment outside of Europe or the US, is the alliance's biggest ground operation in its history with 35,000 soldiers currently in the country. The majority of these troops hail from the US and the UK. The ISAF currently has five regional commands in Afghanistan: north, south, east, west and Kabul . The ISAF's headquarters are at Camp Warehouse , 16 kilometers east of Kabul. According to Brigadier General Patrick de Villiers of France, the ISAF's mission in Kabul is to hold Taliban insurgents in check while winning the hearts and minds of the local population by pursing small development projects in conjunction with local leaders to improve living standards while respecting local religion and culture.The same generally is the stated NATO/ISAF mission in Afghanistan. The Turkish Armed Forces will lead the Kabul Regional Command mission until 6 December, when Italy takes the helm until August 2008. Some Facts and Figures NATO troops breakdown in Afghanistan as of early 2007 (based on interviews with various ISAF officers and authors own estimates) United States, 12,000Britain, 5,200Germany, 2,750Netherlands, 2,100Canada 2,200 Italy, 1,800 France, 1,000Romania, 750Spain, 625Turkey, 475Norway, 350Denmark, 325Belgium, 300Hungary, 200Portugal, 180Greece, 180Bulgaria, 150Lithuania, 135Czech Republic, 100Estonia, 90Slovakia, 60Slovenia, 50Latvia, 35Iceland, 15Luxembourg, 10Poland, 10Non-NATOSweden, 350Australia, 200Croatia, 120Macedonia, 120New Zealand, 100Finland, 100Albania, 30Azerbaijan, 20Ireland, 10Austria, 5Switzerland, 5

The present situation is that the Taliban are controlling large parts of the following provinces :-1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Ghazni (Andar District,Muqur) At least 30 % of the province by day and 60 % after sunset till dawn) Zabul (At least 75 % of the province) Uruzgan ( At least 55 % of the province) Helmand (At least 80 % of the province) Paktika (At least 20 % of the province) Khost (At least 20 % of the province) Paktia (At least 10 % of the province) Farah (At least 55 % of the province)

9. Kunar (At least 20 % of the province) 10. Laghman (At least 20 % of the province) 11. Kapisa (Tagab district) 12. Kandahar ( at least 45 % )

Communications :--1. Kabul –Torkham Highway is 90 % safe but there have been incidents of attacks on oil tankers.Many of these are however insurance frauds done by owners of oil tankers coming from Pakistan or by their crew who first sell the fuel and then put the tankers on fire. 2. Kabul-Kandahar Heart Highway :-- It is unsafe for any kind of civilian traffic between Muqur in Ghazni till Shahr e Safa in Kandahar and from Maiwand in Kandahar Province till Farah Rud and Adraskan in Herat Province in between 1600 in the evening till dawn.

3. Kandahar-Spin Boldak Highway :-- Safe during daytime but unsafe after 1600 till dawn. 4. Kabul-Mazar-Hairatan Highway :-- Safe 24 hours except odd cases of robberies. 5. Kabul-Kunduz-Bandar Sher Khan Highway :-- Safe 24 hours except odd cases of robberies.

Suicide Bombings :-My personal study indicates that 70 % of suicide attacks against US/NATO/Afghan National Army/Afghan National Police occurred in Kandahar and Helmand Provinces ,15 % occurred in Kabul Province and 15 % in Khost,Ningrahar,Ghazni and Kunar.This scribe personally witnessed three suicide attacks and did manage to capture one on the camera in September 2006.According to some statistics compiled by Century Foundation New York the approximate casualties were as following :--

According to the Associated Press the USA has suffered as of Friday, Sept. 28, 2007, at least 375 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan as a result of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, according to the Defense Department. The department last updated its figures Sept. 22, 2007.Of those, the military reports 249 were killed by hostile action. According to US Think Tank Century Foundations updated report of September 2007 casualty breakdown in Afghanistan was as follows:--September 07, 2006 By the numbers: Casualties, Sept 2006 Here are the latest casualty figures I could find (Sept 7, 2006): Violence related deaths in past four months: 1600 Source: AP Coalition deaths since 2001: 466 Source: CNN Non-US coaltion deaths: 137 US wounded in action since 2001: 893 Source: CNN Breakdown of NATO/ISAF Casualties (Source Century Foundation/CNN) US: 329 UK: 39 Canada: 32 Germany: 18 Spain: 18 France: 9 Italy: 6 Romania: 4 Denmark: 3 Holland: 3 Sweden: 2 Norway: 1 Portugal: 1 Australia: 1

AN ASSESSMENT OF EVENTS The Taliban and USA had no conventional match so it was logical that the Taliban disintegrated initially in face of the US bombing offensive and later ground attacks of Northern Alliance as well as the US forces. The Taliban's started re-grouping after mid 2002 having realized that the USA and its NATO allies had sparse ground forces.Initially they targeted NGOs and construction companies but by 2004 they started applying the tactics learnt in Iraq in Afghanistan.

By 2005 they were generally organized as regional battle groups under a command and control system.An assessment of this is shown on the map.Each regional group comprised a hard core of 150 to 350 and a total mobilized armed strength of 1000 to 2000 fighters. According to a study done by this scribe for an international client IEDs were initially imported from Datta Khel and Pishin but later each regional group started manufacturing their own IEDs.Weapons and munitions were bought from Iranian Baloch and Kurd smugglers or from groups in Central Asian Republics.Most of the weapons were smuggled via Iran.

Taliban control over Helmand and South Nimroz ensured that they controlled the main drug transit routes hence this enabled them to maintain a strong leverage with Pakistani and Iranian Baloch tribes.

The USA and its NATO allies appear to have the following strategy :--Control the key airfields of Afghanistan with minimum strength. Hold Kabul in strength.

Show piece patrolling in Southern Provinces giving the impression that the ISAF/NATO is active but in reality avoiding pitched battles or any heavy troop copmmitment. Rebuild the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police.This may take many dccades.Actual fighting indicates that both the ANA and ANP have extremely limited value while operating independently.Thanks to US insistence the Afghan Army was destroyed effectively in the period 198992 and building a effective army may take many decades. It appears that the long term strategic purpose of Afghanistan was to dominate the regional states as well the resources by occupying airbases which would enable the USA to attack targets of its choosing , may they be WMDs or other installations.Effective countermeasures by President Putin of Russia however severely limited US influence in the Central Asian Republics. Pressurise/armtwist Pakistani into destroying the main Taliban bases in Waziristan and North Balochistan. The Taliban strategy is as following :--Harass Kabul Herat Road disturbing container movements. Cause attrition on British-Canadian troops in Helmand and Kandahar the Pashtun heartland thus demonstrating to all Pashtuns in Afghanistan that the Talibans are a major player. Dominate the major drug production areas in the south and the main drug export routes thus financially sustaining the ongoing war. Carry out continuous suicide and IED\bombings in Kabul and surrounding area sapping morale Of anti Taliban forces and demoralising civilians. Carry out selective IED/Suicide Attacks against US Forces and US Civilans Targeting the Afghan National Police which was not completely disintegrated in 1988-92.The Taliban know that the hard core of the Afghan Government is the ANP trained by the indomitable Sayyid Gulabozai.The Afghan National Police has at least 25 % officers trained in ex USSR and is very professional as well as patriotic.Thus the attacks on Afghan National Police by the suicide bombers as well as IEDs. ANALYSIS

The strategic challenges that the USA confronts are complex and challenging and the present US leadership lacks the strategic talent to find a solution.Just sitting in Afghanistan and Iraq is not the solution.If not a reverse it is certainly not a success for USA and its allies.And every day spent in Iraq and Afghanistan without striking at the real centre of gravity is a strategic failure of USA.

Using the Northern Alliance as main Allies The USA was seen as friends of Non Pashtuns in 2001.This created an alienation and feeling of betrayal in Pashtuns both in Afghanistan and Pakistan .This fact was admitted even by US

scholars.Professor Rasul Amin who is this scribe's personal friend offered a very interesting explanation of this US failure.According to Prof Rasul Amin who was also Afghanistan's first Education Minister the main US advisor who according to US decision makers possessed Solomon's wisdom about Afghanistan,Zalmay Khalilzad was a non Pashtun.Rasul Amin stated in various discussions that Zalmay was a Changharay ( of Hindu/Indian origin) and not a Pashtun.He thus carried a conscious as well as unconscious bias against Pashtuns.This led to his advocating a course in US policy as a result of which US position became very partisan and negative in the eyes of the Pashtun population. The USA achieved little by this favour ironically.The Northern Alliance's real allies and saviours were the Russians,Indians and Iranians and this remains the present position.To rub salt in the wound today the Northern Alliance propagates that they singlehandedly removed the Taliban understating and under emphasizing the impact of US aerial bombardment on Taliban.Thus although without USA intervention the Taliban would still have been ruling Afghanistan,the USA failed to gained the goodwill that they deserved from the Northern Alliance.The Northern Alliance knows that their permanent allies are Russia,India and Iran while USA is a dangerous ally which can change its policy at any times.Thus US policy laid the foundation of a possible division of Afghanistan into Pashtun and non Pashtun parts.This may take a decade or more but a foundation has been laid. US strategy is not aimed at pacifying Afghanistan The force ratio of USA and its major NATO allies is so low that it is not designed to pacify or control whole of Afghanistan.The major US targets its appears were the airbases and those they occupied.These airbases will go a long way in enabling the USA to strike at a multiple number of targets in the region.This has already led to China and Russia becoming better allies and has not served US policy. Material motivation of various major participants exposed One good result of the war is the fact that materialistic motivation of many majopr participants has been exposed.When the USSR intervened in Afghanistan in 1979 the then Pakistani military regime adopted a policy of aiding Afghan rebel groups on the slogan of Jihad.Today with more than 20 Christian countries occupying Afghanistan and with Pakistan facing a more grave threat on its Western borders there is no talk of Jihad now.The motivation in 1979 was to get foreign aid and this has remained the motivation in 2001.The same is true for the so called Mujahids of 1979-1989.They fought a Jihad against a non Christian USSR and are now major vassals of more than 20 Christian countries occupying Afghanistan. Taliban a force to stay on the scene In pure military as well as political terms the Taliban are a force that will stay on the scene unless there is a major change in US strategy.This would not lead to US withdrawal but it would certainly make Afghanistan's Pashtun and non Pashtun divide deeper.The USA would be the loser as the Northern Alliance regards Russia as a more solid and reliable friend and ally.The Taliban will dominate the south and the drug trade and there dominance would ensure that the Pashtuns remain relatively

uneducated.Thus fundamentalism would be strengthened in the Afghan South and the regional threat will remain functional. Taliban's Ability to acquire SAM capability will be a serious challenge to USA/NATO Presently the Taliban have no SAM capability but if they acquire this the whole balance in Afghanistan would seriously tilt against the Americans/NATO.Presently the NATO is the master of the land battlefield because of dominance of the skies.This has enabled it to occupy Afghanistan with minimum forces and to economise on the war expenditure.A few SAMs can however change the whole situation. IED and Suicide Attacks Main Strength of Taliban The Taliban have mastered the use of IEDs and have a large reservoir of suicide bombers.These are two formidable weapons that they possess against which the USA/NATO has no countermeasure or remedy.

Conclusion The Afghan battlefield will see few decisive battles and would continue to be a slow war of attrition in which the NATO/ISAF will rarely see the faces of their enemies.Time is on the side of Taliban.The NATO/USA has to decide on a definite strategy unless their aim is just to control the strategic Afghan airfields as jump off points for attacks on other regional countries in the next decade.Pakistan lost the good will it should have had in Afghanistan because its foreign policy was controlled by non Professionals.This failure started from removal of Agha Shahi from the Foreign Office.Shahi was not in favour of doing everything that the Americans told the Pakistanis.He was a seasoned diplomat.After his exit the Foreign Office passed into hands of soldiers turned diplomats with an over ride gear from General Zia and the so called Silent Soldier. Seen in retrospect Pakistan's Afghan policy was a failure and the threat in 2007 to Pakistan's integrity is far more grave than in 1979.In this scenario the Taliban are a major contender.They have acquired a fearsome reputation not only as warriors in the Pashtun areas but also in the eyes of their NATO opponents.However the talk of engaging them is impractical.The battle that they are fighting is to the bitter end and this fact has to be digested by all decision makers on all sides.The Taliban have succeeded in destabilisng the region and herein lies their nuisance value. -- http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/

Comments on Ongoing Debate about ISI in the Afghan War

www.chowk.com December 2007 http://www.chowk.com/Views/Politics/Comments-on-Ongoing-Debate-about-ISI-in-the-Afghan-War

Text of Complete Letter Sent to Defence Journal This refers to Dr Hamid Hussain's article on "ISI and Afghanistan" published in the Defence Journal , Karachi. Dr Hamid's criticism of the ISI bosses and the Pakistani generals is generally valid although I must add that he has been too polite. I published his article on Afghan War when I was at Journal of Afghanistan Studies in Kabul in 2004. The same was later reproduced in Defence Journal. The article made many in the Pakistani establishment and Afghan establishment very unhappy and angry as I was told so by Professor Rasul Amin the head of the Think Tank that publishes that journal. It is good that Dr Hamid Hussain is in USA while he writes these articles. General Akhtar Abdul Rahman's main coup in getting promotion from the usurper Zia was while he was General Officer Commanding the 12 Division is Murree in 1977.He regularly spied on Mr Z.A Bhutto then under arrest in Murree and played on Zia's fears.This good reporting paid Akhtar dividends when Zia promoted him to head the ISI. One of the reasons why Zia removed him from ISI was the intermarriages between the generals sons and daughters of then Generals Zahid Ali Akbar and General Rahimuddin ( the one late Maj Gen Iftikhar wanted to court martial in 1971 for disaappearinf from his brigade in Chamb). Zia rightly calculated that Akhtar by intermarriages was getting too powerful. Old fox and seasoned player that Zia was. In Afghanistan the ISI had little strategy as agreed by many ISI hands who worked with Akhtar. All that Akhtar was saying in the conferences was that Kabul must burn ! There was little work north of Hindu Kush and North of Hindu Kush the ISI was not effective as clearly proved by later events from 1989 till todate. One had to be living in the Pakistan of 1979 to understand the true motivations of the then Pakistani tinpot military junta to launch the so called Afghan Jihad. Neither it was purely Afghan nor a Jihad since it was manipulated by non Afghans and the main motivation was not to support the Afghans but to ensure that a military dictator who had usurped power in Pakistan in July 1977 survived. Pakistan was isolated in 1977. Roads were such that one could not travel between two main towns like Lahore and Multan without breaking the cars shock absorbers.

The Afghan War started a grand party for Pakistan's ruling elite and even Pakistan. Afghan refugees were cleverly and criminally used to solicit US and Saudi aid. All glorified as Jihad. False are the claims of todays Pakistani Government that Pakistan gave refuge to Afghans for free. All was done for money and politics.The greatest vindication of this fact is the fact is that now that the US forces are in Afghanistan no Paskistani tinpot dictator talks about Jihad.If the USA came to aid the Afghans in 2001 so did the USSR do so in 1979 but today this is being distorted. The indiscriminate bombing/rocketing of Kabul was the most cowardly act. Many including wives of senior ministers like Gulabozai died in these rockets. Residential areas were rocketed including the apartments of Makroyan Kunha and Shahr e Nau. This policy was sanctioned and approved at the highest level by Akhtar. No Afghan Government in exile was created in Peshawar as it would have checked Akhtar's hold on ISI funds. The loss that the so called Mujahideen inflicted on the Red Army was peanuts , just 14,000 killed with so much of foreign aid and advanced munitions. Most of the Stingers were sold and resold and this was good business. Actually my ongoing research proves that the standard of living of the so called Mujahids and many Pakistani generals improved during and after the so called Jihad. Today the so called Mujahideen are sitting in ministries with USA and 26 countries occupying Afghanistan. At least the Soviets were not Christians ! Thank God ! Today there is no Jihad although a foreign power is occupying Afghanistan ! It was all about money and staying in power when the Soviets occupied Afghanistan and all about money and staying in power when the USA occupied Afghanistan in 2001. The faces have changed but the modus operandi is the same ! The so called Mujahid leaders that Akhtar backed were non entities and they were backed because they were good yes men. This is proved by the fact that they immediately forgot their old patrons when the USA occupied Afghanistan and changed loyalties. The so called Afghan Jihad was a failure as Zia and Akhtar were US pawns.When they did not dance to the tune they were removed with immaculate perfection ! About General Baig however I would slightly differ with Dr Hamid ! Baig had a better intellect but when he became the army chief the environment geopolitically speaking had changed. There is one last phenomenon which occurs recurrently.Once Pakistani generals are rejected by the Americans they do start criticising the Americans. However it must be understood that the USA has a far more long term agenda in Afghanistan than USSR ! The USSR played a major role in freeing many Afro-Asian nations by militarily supporting guerrillas ! They

helped the Arabs in fighting Israel and now that they are not there Muslims are being kicked everywhere in Iraq and even dear Afghanistan where Akhtar fought the so called bear. One last thing which must be remembered that Jihad has a link with technology and Talibans are being mauled in Afghanistan because they have no SAM missiles. The Afghan War was a failure not only for the Pakistanis but the Afghans also and the threat remains. If Afghanistan was fragmented as a state, many other states face the same fate in its neighbouring region. While the Vietnam Communist Jihad was a success the Afghan Jihad was an undoubted failure. The threat that Pakistan and even Afghanistan faces today are far more grave than in 1979 as time will prove.The US Presidential candidates are issuing far more deadly statements than Brezhnev or any Soviet leader. The USSR kept its cool during the Afghan War while today the US politicians are talking about attacking Mecca and Waziristan and the latter may actually happen. It is worthwhile to compare the standard of living of the Afghans who were in key positions in 1979 and 1988 and those in Pakistan . This is my first hand observation in Kabul and confirmed by many of my friends who were in Al Zulfiqar and ANP in Kabul while struggling against the military usurper Zia. Dr Najib who was President of Afghanistan from 1986 to 1992 lived in a common apartment in Makroyan.T ill his death he had no house. Sayed Gulabozai the Interior Minister from 1978 till 1992 till to date does not have a car cor even a house in Kabul.He is so popular in Khost from where he hails that he got the highest number of votes from Khost in Afghan Parliamentary Elections of 2005. While General Akhtar hardly ever left his HQ in Islamabad to expose himself to fire , Gulabozai fought from the front and was a fearless military commander as minister of Interior leading the Sarandoy troops. The indomitable Aslam Watanjar who planned and executed the Saur Revolution Coup of April 1978 and who I met in Russia in 1995 and 1996 and became a good friend was penniless and died in sad circumstances in 2000 and is buried in Oddessa. Bariyali the close relative of President Karmal died penniless in Germany in early 2007 and money was collected by Afghan refugees to finance his body's transportation to Kabul. No PDPA leader who served in the Afghan regime from 1978 to 1992 has a house in Wazir Akbar Khan , Kabul's most posh locality while most of the houses in that area are owned by former so called Mujahid commanders. General Ulumi who was PDPA Corps Commander in Kandahar in 1986-89 and fighting against the so called Mujahids is still so popular that he got the second highest number of votes from Kandahar in 2005 Elections.

Now compare the above with life style of General Zia's son . Zia was from humble background.So was the case of General Akhtar who led the so called Afghan Jihad and now his sons are multi millionaires and sitting ministers in the present Pakistani Government. The so called Afghan Jihad was a success for many Pakistani and Afghans in personal terms.But these were a small minority.For the vast majority of Afghans it was a failure.Afghanistan lost the flower of its leadership,intellectuals and infrastructure ! kind regards Agha

New US Strategy Needed in Afghanistan and Pakistan A.H Amin March 2008 Published in www.chowk.com USA occupied Afghanistan in November 2001 and its almost more than 6 years since then and yet the United States has failed to win the hearts and minds of a substantial part of Afghan populace. The reason lies in abject failure of USA's economic policy. This in turn has led to a counterproductivesituation. There is nothing inevitable in history but those who cannot identify the critical time span in any crisis and who fail to seize it by the horns are bound to fail. Such unfortunately has been the case with US strategy in Afghanistan. The US president failed to find the right strategic talent for Afghanistan and thus thrust mediocre US policy makers on Afghanistan who know , nor recognise anything higher than their shallow mediocrity !The main thrust of USA's policy was to construct roads and schools and clinics. These were important but no substantial class of stakeholders which had a vested interest in success of US policy inside Afghanistan was created. No major employment opportunities were created. No major effort was made to encourage private enterprise. No major attempt was made to privatise Afghanistan's main economic potential i.e its massive custom revenues most of which do not land in government coffers and are skimmed away by corrupt custom officials as bribes and by smugglers as profits once Afghan imports are re-exported i.e smuggled to Pakistan.US approach in short was bureaucratic, conservative and in final summing up timid ! Bearing Point a large US firm got the major contract for economic reform. It hired Americans and expatriates who would not have got any decent job in USA or even a medium level country. In addition they hired some Afghan Americans who came to Afghanistan for a short term period , to make a quick buck and go back to their relatively far more comfortable permanent places on the California coast.The magnum bonum achievement of US advisors was creation of AISA a German aid agency funded and initially administered by some European donors to regulate licensing and setting up of industrial parks. Again since little private enterprise was involved with Bearing Point being in the

background and making a good buck hiring Afghans with US or Canadian passports at relatively low salaries and some local Afghans.The main industrial project of AISA industrial parks in Jalalabad , Kabul ,Kandahar ,Herat and Mazar took six years to be awarded and will take another one year to complete. Having said that it is good if AISA has licensing/registration alone and Industrial Parks are handled by a highly professional international company with full support of the US Government and with zero percent interference from the Afghan Government.A better approach could have been to award the contract to a private firm on turnkey basis with a profit incentive instead of hiring Afghans on fixed salary in AISA. This combined with a 30 or 50 year incentive to industries to export quota free to USA , combined with a buy back guarantee with USA with the condition that all quality standards were met would have let to creation of industrial parks in Afghanistan by mid 2004 and by mid 2005 or late 2005 many hundreds of industrial units would have been functioning in Afghanistan. Thus at least permanent long term employment could have been created for 200,000 to 500,000 Afghans.Instead the main thrust of US economic policy was on roads ,schools and clinics which benefitted a coupe of construction companies of foreign companies and created a low income short term employment for an Afghan labour which could not have exceeded 300,000 at any time.Schools and clinics awarded to LBGI were in turn sub contracted by LBGI to Afghan contractors , many being US and European passport holders at about 25 % to 30 % of the total cost. These contractors in turn sub contracted these to local Afghan petty contractors at low rates.Thus hardly 10 % of the total amount earmarked for these schools and clinics were actually spent resulting in leaking and collapsing roofs and highly sub standard construction. This faux pas was well covered by the Washington Post in late 2005.It has been estimated that the contraband non drug mafia in Afghanistan is larger than the drug mafia of Afghanistan.In turn both the mafias have overlapping key figures involved in both the trades.It has been estimated that some 80 % of Afghanistan's imports are smuggled back to neighbouring Pakistan where custom duties are very high. The United States made a somewhat lukewarm effort to re-structure the low paid and highly corrupt and inefficient Afghan customs . Another approach could have been to award the custom collection and enforcement task to an international private firm like Cotecna or SGS.This way Afghan custom revenues could have been multiplied by 400 % to 600 % and Afghan Government could have been made financially far stronger, while also reducing its overwhelming dependence on foreign aid. It is significant to note that many key Afghan governors on the bordering provinces as well as some ministers are known to have a close link with the non drug contraband mafia.During the past six years many Afghans and many Pashtuns saw daisy cutters , Chinooks and armoured cars but no one saw the benefits of USA's advent in Afghanistan. Both the countries got a lot of hot lead and shrapnels but no Marshall Plan other than a Marshal being created in Afghanistan ! In Afghanistan this was a case of lack of vision on part of US Government. In Pakistan which got more than 10 Billion USD in aid , the corrupt non Pashtun dominated government spent a very nominal part of this aid on the Pashtun areas despite the fact that this aid was meant to basically pacify the Pashtun areas of Pakistan which are definitely the centre of gravity of Al Qaeda/Taliban. No special export zone with the right to quota free guaranteed export reinforced by buy back guarantees was created in the NWFP and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan.These zones could have gone a long way in creating employment and prosperity in the Pashtun areas and vastly reduce the sense of alienation in the Pashtuns. The reasons for this were more ethnic than anything and the USA made no effort to arm twist the tinpot Musharraf regime into spending this money on the Pashtun areas of Pakistan.The only investment that Pakistan's non Pashtun dominated government made on the Pashtun areas was in form of Cobra helicopter

munitions,7.62 mm bullets,155 mm artillery etc in pounding the Pashtun areas indiscriminately, targeting mostly non combatants women and children.In addition no major effort was made to create a stock exchange or float investment bonds giving good interest which could have created a substantial class in Afghanistan whose success and prosperity was linked to US policies in Afghanistan.It was just a matter of a little imagination and printing bonds with the backing and sovereign guarantee of US government for payment of interest in USD for a period of 10 to 20 years. Unfortunately there was no brilliant man like Nixon in the US leadership who could think of a coup like delinking of goald standard in the early 70s. A condition could have been imposed that in order to buy these Afghanistan Fund Bons all companies had to register in Afghanistan thus bringing money to Afghanistan as well as a long term class of stake holders in Afghanistan.I developed friendship with a US official in Kabul in 2005.We discussed many aspects of US policy in Afghanistan. In the end the US officer pessimistically concluded that his superiors were a bunch of wet pussies . Similar ideas were expressed by many US military officers I met in Afghanistan in the course of military contracting in course of 4 years.It may be added that the same policy should have been followed in Pakistan , particularly its tribal areas creating industrial zones guaranteeing 10 to 20 years quota free exports to USA with buy back guarantee instead of doling out many billion US Dollars to Pakistans highly corrupt military junta. This way employment would have been created and potential recruits of Al Qaeda and Taliban given decent risk free long term jobs in the industrial units established as part of this policy. No major effort was made to regulate the visa regime. A Work Permit was issued by the Ministry of Labour for visa extension but this permit was not honoured by the Ministry of Interior when AISA issued them visa extension letters for multiple visa in many cases thus restricting in country and out country movement of expatriates. The Afghan Embassies particularly those in Pakistan followed yet another highly absurd practice of granting a 15 day single entry visa to all applicants with the condition that after they had visited Afghanistan once and exited they could not apply for another Afghan visa till the three month period of the visa expired. Thus an expatriate with a valid Afghan Work Permit was told that work permit had no legal value in eyes of Afghan Embassy Staff and that they could not apply for another visa till the three months visa validity period expired.Afghanistan and even Pakistan may be compared to a sort of West Germany and South Korea for USA. Any withdrawal from Afghanistan would straight away lead to re-occupation of the country by Taliban with an active re-entry of Russia,Iran and India on side of non Taliban forces. The Afghan Army needs at least 10 to 15 years to recover its military effectiveness. Thus all this would be a 100 percent diasaster for USA. The only viable strategy for USA in Afghanistan is to settle in for next two decades.Introduce a Marshall Plan which creates employment and prosperity .Introduce public bonds with good interest that make US presence in Afghanistan a cause of progress and prosperity for many.Keep a watchful eye on the region.Build up the capacity of the Afghan National Army and Police. Any withdrawal by USA would be a cardinal strategic blunder. Something which the USA cannot afford and an event which would constitute a Clausewitzian culminating point of USA.Further the USA has to reinforce the democratic forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan while making use of Pakistan's mercenary army which is still far more cheaper than any Western force even if their pay is tripled by US aid. At the same time the Pakistani forces being more than 60 % non Pashtuns have to be restrained from causing collateral damage.The USA has invested

many billions in Afghanistan but its priorities are not clear. Vaccillation , procractination and supreme indecision remain the hallmarks of US policy in Afghanistan.

THE FRENCH AMBUSHED AT SAROBI 2008

MAJOR ZAKIR KHAN A SAFI PASHTUN FROM TAGAB . A COMMITTED LEFTIST AND A PARCHAMI.TRAINED IN OLD AND GREAT USSR AT RIGA POLICE ACADEMY.HERE WE ARE CHILLING OUT IN THE BAR OF FOOD COURT RESTAURANT IN SHAHR E NAU KABUL IN MARCH 2007

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The French Ambushed at Sarobi

Agha H Amin

According to a press report " The French soldiers were on a reconnaissance mission when they were ambushed by a force of about 100 militants in the mountains of Sarobi. France's top military official, Gen. Jean-Louis Georgelin, said most of the French casualties came in the minutes after the soldiers ascended a mountain pass. Al Jazeera reported the Taliban movement had confirmed attacking an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) patrol in the district, blowing up several vehicles. According to French Defense Minister, Herve Morin, 30 militants were killed and 30 wounded. (Refers Weiterführende links).

The funny albeit ironic part was Sarkozy telling the soldiers that military procedures would be altered to prevent similar losses in the future. "Even though the toll is so high, you should be proud of what

you are doing. The work that you're doing here is indispensable," the president told the troops, "we're gong to make sure that the means are put in place to ensure that this doesn't happen again."

According to AFP Ten French NATO soldiers were killed in a Taliban ambush in Afghanistan, officials said Tuesday, the deadliest ground attack on foreign troops here since the US-led war was launched in 2001.The shock ambush also left 21 French troops wounded, and prompted French President Nicolas Sarkozy to announce he would immediately head to the country, where recent monthly death tolls for foreign forces have topped those for Iraq.

"In its struggle against terrorism, France has just been hit hard." That actually was the aim of the group which attacked the French in Sarobi region after all !

According to the same AFP report "The initial patrol was reinforced with quick reaction forces, close air support and mobile medical teams. During the engagement a large number of insurgents were killed," ISAF said."There was fierce fighting throughout the night," said Afghan defence ministry spokesman General Mohammad Zahir Azimi, who said at least 13 Taliban fighters had been killed in the clashes.The extremist Taliban said it had attacked ISAF troops in Sarobi and blown up several vehicles. "We have inflicted heavy casualties," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed told AFP.

The above is routine press gimmicks which can be written sitting in the comfort of the AFP press residence in Kabul's posh Wazir Akbar Khan district . As a regular traveler on this road the ambush struck me as unique and deliberate.Having traveled on this road at least 15 times in a month at all times , day and night , my first conclusion was that this was an unusual occurrence.Since I have employed guards who hail from one of the most notorious side valleys of the main Kabul River i.e the Tagab Valley my mind immediately traveled to Alasay district of Tagab region in Kapisa Province.I had frequently been in that area in the last few months in the process of confirm or disregarding my hypotheses of recommending the CASA 1000 transmission line route from Jabal us Siraj to Sarobi via Nijrab and Tagab.What I saw in the survey was horrifying.Tagab was the hub of insurgents.Traditionally Safi , a very important Pashtun tribe of Afghanistan have led many major tribal revolts in Afghanistan for many 100 years.They produced die hard Khalqi leftists, and that includes my guards and staff,they produced diehard Hizb e Islami Hikmatyarites and they produced die hard Talibs.My respect for Safis led to my decision to have only Safis with me on all my consultancy tasks in Afghanistan.They were good in work,in smoking joints, in drinking Tuborg beer or Grants Whiskey and any major or minor voice,you name it.As good Muslims they prayed regularly

although maintaining regularity in being my booze companions.They were solid as steel under fire and cool as ice in face of the direst straits.My gut feeling after reading press reports was the conclusion that this was the work of the Safis of Tagab and more particularly those of Alasay district.Masters in minor tactics , classic guerrilla warriors the Safis were the backbone of the pre 1978 and post 1978 Afghan Army and particularly prominent in special forces.Many defected to the hireling Mujahids but with conviction , while many contributed to Afghanistan's revolution by participation in the army and in various key ambassadorial posts like Moscow had a Safi Afghan Ambassador in the leftist regime period in Afghanistan.I must add that my bootlegger the indomitable Barroo , a diehard Khalqi and ex Afghan Khad Intelligence , trained at Kiev and Tashkent , is also a Safi.I can never repay his generosity in giving me many cases of good stuff on loan when my bills were stuck up for many months. It may be noted that Tagab and Alasay the two Safi districts of Kapisa Province have a strong Talib as well as Hekmatyars Hizb e Islami presence . So who did it is 50-50 and the two could have even combined to do it.After all there is no love between Taliban and Hekmatyar and the French.The Taliban cannot forgive the French for Daisy cutting themn withn over four tons of meat slicer bombs operating from Manas Airbase in 2001 and 2002.Hikmatyar will never forgive the French for loving Ahmad Shah Massoud his nemesis. There is one thing about France and Frenchman in Afghanistan which makes their presence in Pashtun areas particularly vulnerable.Its their fame or infamy in having been very close to the late and great Ahmad Shah Massoud.In Taliban propaganda particularly the French were regarded as allies of Non Pashtun against Pashtuns.Although important to my mind this was not the main cause of the French faux pas at Sarobi !

Having worked on USAID projects in Helmand and Ghazni I studied many ambushes but this ambush was unique.It had that immaculate tactical perfection which only a Safi can execute.A coup de clat as the French may like to admit it.Tagab provided the best approach to Sarobi . Logar's Azra area being the second best route and Lataband route being the southern entry point.

I came to know the French while visiting Camp Escerito as a sub contractor.Compared to Italians and Greeks my first impression was that they carried themselves with an air of arrogance and superiority.I could be wrong but this was the impression.This made me decide to avoid the French . My friend the Pakistani liasion officer with the Americans at Bagram also agreed that the French were a little arrogant although not bad company when you came to know them.Although my military history hero was Napoleon.But then again he was an Italian Corsican more than a French.It was Frances luck that Napoleon was French or came to be a Frenchman despite having been initially Paoli the Corsican separatists disciple.

In March 2008 I received an engineer visitor from Pakistan.He told me that he had been searched in a very crude and aggressive way by French troops at the Pul I Charkhi checkpoint on Sarobi Kabul road near Kabul.He also lamenIt was at that time that I discovered that the French were patrolling this stretch of the country.As all who have lived in Afghanistan know all NATO countries have different armoured cars .Thats how they are recognized.Plus they have a flag also painted on the armoured cars.The locals of Sarobi Kabul must have noticed the fact that the Americans have been replaced by French with change in type of armoured cars.The French were targeted on this road.There are no coincidences in history.The Americans got a bloody nose in Tagab many times but never on the main Kabul Sarobi Road.

The incident is significant because foreign security forces have been targeted on the main economic lifeline of Afghanistan and the NATO/US forces.This makes this incident appear very deliberate.A message was intended and delivered with the crack of hot lead.Thats why the French mini Waterloo at Sarobi is a watershed.As an ex soldier I am terribly hurt when a civilian politician tries to wet nurse soldiers and that too about tactics ! The French fought well , my Afghan sources tell me ! The Safis once again proved their tactical brilliance ! But its not Sarkozy's business to rub salt in the wounds of his soldiers.It is my conviction that this remark must have hurt the French soldiers more than all bullets fired by the indomitable Safis in anger ! US COMMANDO ATTACK IN SOUTH WAZIRISTAN A.H AMIN 03 SEPTEMBER 2008 The US military was accused today of having sent a force of commandos across the border from Afghanistan into Pakistan on a raid in which 20 people were reportedly killed, including women and children. Both Nato and the separate US-led coalition in Afghanistan denied any knowledge of the pre-dawn attack, which local residents said involved both American and Afghan troops backed by helicopter gunships. But it was immediately seen as both undermining sovereignty and presenting a challenge to the coalition government led by Yousuf Raza Gilani, the object of an unsuccessful assassination in Rawalpindi this morning. "It is outrageous," Owais Ahmed Ghani, the governor of North West Frontier province, said in a statement on the incursion. "This is a direct assault on the sovereignty of Pakistan and the people of Pakistan expect that the armed forces of Pakistan would rise to defend the sovereignty of the country and give a befitting reply."

This comes from a total amateur who has already by his incompetent handling taken Baluchistan to the brink of secession.Now the same man is in NWFP province in governors seat. All set to create chaos in the NWFP also. The US air mounted raid, there are no coalition forces in this area was mounted from a forward airbase in Paktika province of Afghanistan near Sharan. There could be multiple aims of this raid. To psychologically harass the Pakistani state.To tell the tribals that the USA can strike at will anywhere in the tribal areas. To spread panic in the area so that any major anti US figure in the area leaves his hideout and changes location and is in the process discovered. The US attack was logical and natural.They have decided that the centre of gravity of all the trouble is Pakistan.Right or wrong this appears to be the central US perception now. Seen in this context a major US operation aimed at reducing Pakistan in effectiveness of a small or large dimension may commence in end 2008 and be finalised by mid 2009. This could involve selective surgical strikes, a black and white ultimatum , physical invasion assisted by India, outbreak of war of secession in any of Pakistan's smaller provinces, assassination of key leaders or a leader and finally manipulating things in such a way that martial law is imposed in Pakistan. The Americans are no longer dealing with the Old Fox Musharraf. The army it is dealing with now is a semi defeated force. Besieged in its own country's western provinces. At war with its people, or at least a substantial albeit effective minority. In dealing with the Americans I discovered in 1996 and this idea was successively reinforced that at state level they never act at random. Every action, smallest in size has a grand strategic idea. Its time that soldiers and politicians realise this fact and start preparing for the worst to come. PAKISTAN GETS THE FEELER OF WHAT IT HAS BEEN PROMOTING IN AFGHANISTAN SINCE 2008

KOHAT TUNNEL BLOCKED DUE TO SABOTAGE AUGUST 2008

MY CAT SHARIF IN SAFE HANDS-KABUL MARCH 2007

Taverna Du Liban Lebanese Restaurant Kabul October 2006

Visiting my friend Lieutenant Colonel Tariq Aslam at Bagram Air Base where he was Pakistan Army Liasion Officer with US forces in Afghanistan , March 2008

IT WAS A PATHETIC SIGHT TO SEE THE STILL UNCOMPLETE TOMB.A REFLECTION AT THE CALLOUSNESS OF THE PRESEN LEADERS OF NORTHERN ALLIANCE. MASSOUD WAS GREAT BECAUSE HE ENTERED INTO A SECRET PROTOCOL WITH GREAT GENERAL YAQUBI OF AFGHAN INTELLIGENCE TO SAVE HIS COUNTRY FROM DESTRUCTION IN 1983.YAQUBI PAID WITH HIS LIFE IN 1992.HE WAS SHOT BY THE MUJAHIDS AFTER KABUL WAS HANDED OVER TO MUJAHIDS AS PART OF A SECRET PLAN.YAQUBI WAS SHOT DEAD BECAUSE HE KNEW ALL ABOUT SECRET PROTOCOLS WITH ALL MUJAHID GROUPS.HOWEVER YAQUBI TRIUMPHED IN HIS DEATH IN THE SENSE THAT HE LAID FOUNDATION OF NORTHERN ALLIANCE.

Kabul Nowroz 21 March 2008 with Major Zakir amd a retired Afghan Officer from the leftist regime at the house

Kabul Spring 2008

A SMALL NOTE ON THE SECRET WAR IN AFGHANISTAN THE SECRET WAR IN AFGHANISTAN BEGAN IN 1953 WHEN SARDAR DAUD KHAN BECAME THE PRIME MINISTER.ON ONE SIDE WAS THE KGB AND ON THE OTHER THE CIA WITH PAKISTANI AND IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES AS SUBSIDIARY VASSALS.THE HIGH POINT OF THIS WAR WAS 1973 WHEN SARDAR DAUD KHAN STAGED A COUP WITH THE HELP OF GREAT ASLAM WATANJAR.THE CLIMAX CAME IN 1976 WHEN DAUD KHAN IN HIS OLD AGE THOUGHT THAT HE MUST STAB AFGHANISTANS GREATEST BENEFACTOR THE USSR IN THE BACK.

THE MOST MYSTERIOUS INCIDENT IN THIS SAGA WAS THE ASSASINATION OF MIR AKBAR KHAIBAR WHICH ACTED AS THE CATALYST FOR THE SAUR REVOLUTION LAUNCHED AGAIN BY THE INDOMITABLE ASLAM WATANJAR.ONLY A PASHTUN COULD DO IT ! AND THAT TOO A PAKTIAWAL. IN 1978 THE USA UNDER CARTER AND BREZINSKI STARTED ANOTHER CHAPTER OF THE WAR BY AIDING THE BASTARD CHILD MILITARY JUNTA OF PAKISTANS ZIA TO ACT AS A BASE TO DESTABILISE THE DE FACTO PDPA REGIME OF AFGHANISTAN.CHINA ALSO ENTERED THIS GAME.THIS LED TO INCREASED GUERRILLA SABOTEUR ACTIVITY FORCING THE USSR TO INVADE. THE GREATEST ASSET OF THE USSR IN AFGHANISTAN WAS THE AFGHAN INTELLIGENCE HEADED INITIALY BY DR NAJIB AND LATER BY THE INDOMITABLE GENERAL YAQUBI FROM 1986.THE GREATEST TRIUMPH CAME IN 1982 WHEN KHAD STARTED CONCLUDING SECRET PROTOCOLS WITH VARIOUS GROUPS NOTABLY AHMAD SHAH MASSOUD.MASSOUD HAD REALISED THAT DESTROYING HIS OWN COUNTRY FOR DOLLARS WAS NO HOLY WAR.THAT WAS THE TURNING POINT.FROM 1982 TILL 1992 TH AFGHAN INTELLIGENCE SUCCEEDED IN WHOLLY CONVERTING MANY GROUPS TO THEIR CAUSE.THUS WHEN DR NAJIB VOLUNTARILY GAVE UP POWER AND SURRENDERED KABUL THE SO CALLED MUJAHIDS WERE ALREADY HALF PARCHAMIS THANKS TO YAQUBI.TRAGICALLY THIS LED TO YAQUBIS MURDER IN 1992 BY THE SO CALLED MUJAHIDS IN APRIL 1992.HE KNEW TOO MANY SECRETS. THE SAME STRANGE MIX CONTINUED TILL TO DATE.TODAY THE RUSSIANS ARE MUCH STRONGER IN AFGHANISTAN THAN IN 1978.TODAY THE SO CALLED TALIBANS FIGHTING AGAINST THE USA ARE GETTING AID FROM STRANGE PARTNERS ! UNKNOWN EVEN TO THE TALIBAN ! THE STRANGE WAR GOES ON !

THE BLAST AND THE FLASH AS WE SAW FROM OUR CAR TRAVELLING TOWARDS THE BLAST,PEOPLE RUNNING IN SHOCK AND PANIC (PICTURES TAKEN BY A.H AMIN -COPYRIGHT RESERVED) CLICK TO ENLARGE ON TOP OF EACH PICTURE

THE BLAST AND THE SMOKE AND THE DUST A LITTLE CLOSER FROM OUR CAR

THE REMAINS OF THE SUICIDE BLAST COROLLA AND US HUMVEE WHICH ARRIVED AFTER THE SCENE,JUST ABOUT 5 MINUTES AFTER THE BLAST

AS WE DROVE BACK TO KABUL FROM HARBI PONTOON AFTER A CONTRACT MEETING THIS TRAUMATIC EVENT TOOK PLACE ON THE EVENING OF 20 SEPTEMBER 2006 AT VOODKHEL NEAR KABUL AN AMERICAN WHOSE THOUGHTS I REALLY LIKED:-Monday, May 12, 2008 The Reality of It All We as a nation have lost sight of the realities. What was, what was suppose to be, and what is, are not the same. We are fighting wars in places we have no place being, and giving billions of dollars in aid to countries that are becoming rich, while our country becomes poor. We have lost sight of what America was supposed to be. We can't heal the world, while our own country lays dying in sickness and poverty, nor should we be expected to. At the same time, we shouldn't be trying to influence the whole world with our political and religious beliefs.

I quit the church because they kept wanting money for the "missions, and building fund," while they were letting people in our own community who were disabled and down on their luck suffer. My grandmother always said, "Clean up your own backyard, before you start trying to clean up others," and I am a firm believer in that. As an American citizen, and a Vietnam veteran I am ashamed at what our country has become over the last century. All of this talk about a world economy, and the New World Order is going to be our down fall. We have allowed the left wing-liberals, and the right-wing fascist, to take over our government. Americans puts more money in other countries through government aid, and "Sunday School donations," than can be imagined, while the suffering in our own cities and villages never ends. We have allowed foreign powers, and illegal immigrants to come into our country and steal our very soul, and break our own economy. All of this as part of our desire to dominate the world through politics and religion, Sure I sympathize with the plight of people in other countries, but I believe that we have an obligation and a responsibility to take care of our own citizen first and foremost. We have become a country that is on the one hand afraid of our own shadow; i.e the "war on terror," and on the other, a fascist regime set on an attempt at world domination. In the process we are becoming a third world country, and a welfare state. We have allowed what were once American driven companies to become world power conglomerations, who have take good jobs, that were once America's life's force, and allowed them to be sent overseas with no penalty, and at the expense of the American citizenry. We have allowed them in their greed to form monopolies and conglomerations that that make a few men and women wealthy beyond reason in the name of capitalism, and in the process we have become no better off than our forefathers who were ruled by feudalism, where a few rich elite held sway over the masses. We have allowed our leaders to send our children and grandchildren into foreign lands to fight, and for some to die while others become hopelessly maimed, not for prevailing threats against our life, liberty, or happiness, but for the enrichment of greedy millionaires, billionaires, and the multinational conglomerations they own. We have invaded sovereign nations, influenced elections, and overthrown freely elected governments at the expense of millions of lives, all perpetrated by lies and deceit, for the benefit of nothing but greedy capitalist who desire to control the world and make peasants of all of us, while they become rich and maintain powers no man deserves. Are there solutions to these problems? Yes, there are, but it's going to take a whole new revolution and mindset to ever do it. Why is it so unreasonable to believe that there should not be limits on the amount of wealth that any one individual or family should be allowed to accumulate? Why is it unreasonable to believe that companies and corporations should be limited on the amount of holding they can have? I am not advocating that the government should own and control everything as in communism, instead I believe that there should be equal and fair limitations set to insure that there is a fair and equal distribution of wealth in this country. I mean how many homes and cars can and do one family use and deserve? Why should one family be allowed to own ten homes across the world, while another American can't even afford to own one?

I am afraid that our forefathers and we have been sold a "pig-in-the-poke." Even our constitution was set-up and written by wealthy men, who were not willing to part with the wealth that they had accumulated at the expense of slaves, poor tradesman, and theft from the Native Americans. Many may be surprised to know that at the end of the Revolutionary War, George Washington was the richest man in America, and that men like John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson were all millionaires by todays standards. When they wrote all about freedom and liberty, it was about their freedom and liberty. Freedom and justice for all was a blatant lie. They never freed the slaves, they never gave the poor who didn't own property, and had fought alongside them in the war the right to vote, they never gave women equal rights, and they never made the Native Americans equal partners in the new venture we now call the United States of America. Only George Washington in later years was willing to free his slaves. They didn't, because they knew if they did, that they would have to relinquish part of the power and wealth that they had accumulated by their crooked dealings and at the expense of everyone they had trampled on, stole from and held in slavery. My friends and fellow Americans you have been sold a cheap facsimile, of what could have been a great nation, and received no more than a "pig-in-the-poke" in return. Everyone owes it to their children, and their coming generations to educate themselves to what really is, and what really has been in this country, and what lies have been told, and realize what fools we have been made out to be. We as Americans owe it to ourselves and our generations to stand, and fight by whatever means are necessary to insure that what has happened is no longer allowed to continue. We must put it all on the line, and realize that in order for our country to be ever be truly great, all men and women must be able to live in a country, devoid of petty prejudice's, with respect and dignity and a true possibility to live in prosperity and freedom unabated with the shackles that now bind us. Then and only then can we rest assured that our children and their generations will have a future that is filled with hope and justice for all. http://themanumitterpapers.blogspot.com/ USA MUST RECONSIDER ITS STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ 04 November 2008 http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2008/11/usa-must-reconsider-its-strategy-in.html In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical level has became a laughing stock for the world.Starting from the premise that both USA's total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.

The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle.This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan.If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh. Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s , taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources,Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia's reassertion and regeneration. The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents.They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned.The Russians contained US influence in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and countered it in Kirgizistan with a rival Soviet base.The Iranians did not budge or blink.US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan presented a golden target for Islamists in getting a really swift short cut to paradise.The USA did not make use of the smaller ethnicities like Baloch or Kurd.They continued to rely on the multi ethnic larger states and were decieved and robbed of many billion US dollars.Iraq was not pacified and its situation to date is unstable and unpredictable.Iran was strengthened in the process with a Shia regime in Iraq.Another Shia regime in Syria,unchallenged and dealt with by the USA and the Hezbollah in Lebanon.In short the USA landed into a long term strategic stalemate.A sitting duck target which can be attacked by guerrila forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.Its a matter of time that the anti US forces acquire SAM missiles.And once this happens the USA would have to rely on greater troop levels which would be costly and financially very very draining. In case of Pakistan the USA again failed to achieve any of its objectives.If there were any.Pakistan was not denuclearised.Its non state actors were not pacified.And above all the team which the USA had handpicked in Pakistan failed to deliver.China remains healthy and growing.Russia is now riposting the USA in Georgia and Uktaiine and covertly at many places.In short in seven years of war and with heavy expenses the USA achieved little.Afghanistan was not reconstructed but the seeds of its Balkanistaion firmly planted.All US money went to US contractors or smaller contractors from Turkey,Lebanon,South Korea and Afghanistan. Instead of shifting troops to Afghanistan or enlarge the war to Iran or Pakistan the USA needs to rethink its entire strategy. Some key features of a new strategy may be :-1-Withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining bases in the Gulf/Pakistan/Saudi Arabia. 2-Instead of fighting the Al Qaeda or Taliban directly,let them give a chance to once again become state actors and present both Russia and China a serious threat. 3-Retain international goodwill by acting as a power which stands for peace.

4-Make th regional actors do the job of making the world a safer place.These include Russia,China,India,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Iraq,UAE etc. 5-Concentrate on the USA mainland and on intelligence assets rather than actual physical combat. 6-Create new client states dependent wholly on US support in the region. 7-Cease wasting a cent in states like Afghanistan,Pakistan and Iraq.Afghanistan will be managed by Russia,China,India,Iran and Pakistan who will countercheck each other and the area would have a permanent stalemate with no victors.Simlarly India and Pakistan will balance each other.Indians fear Pakistani nuclear devices more than USA and its Quixotic to think that Pakistani nuclear devices would ever be used against USA. The most important feature of the new strategy would be withdrawal from both Iraq and Afghanistan.This would immediately lead to a new power struggle with Iraq and Afghanistans neighbour also involved deeply rather than being silent spectators as now.Any Taliban victory in Afghanistan and any Al Qaeda victory or a Shia victory in Iraq would restart the old Arab Iran struggle in Iraq.Fat oil rich Arab states would be spending all the money instead of the USA.In Afghanistan also any Taliban resurgence would force Russia ,China,India and Iran to step in and the Taliban would still be contained without a single US cent wasted. The best strategy to make others fight and if fight , fight with minimum expense ! Do the American decision makers have grey matter ! Thats the billion dollar question !

IN SEPTEMBER 2004 THE KABUL TIMES THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT NEWSPAPER PUBLISHED THE BIOGRAPHY OF AHMAD SHAH MASSOUD IN WHICH THEY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HE HAD RECIEVED HIS MILTARY TRAINING IN PAKISTAN.THE USTAAD THEN WAS AN INSTRUCTOR AT THE COMMANDO SCHOOL (SSG SCHOOL IN CHERAT) IN 1974 WHERE MASSOUD HEKMATYAR RABBANI ETC RECIEVED TRAINING IN VARIOUS ASPECTS OF GUERRILLA WARFARE.THE FIRST PRACTICE OF THIS TRAINING THAT THEY DID IN PANJSHER VALLEY WAS A TOTAL FAILURE. FROM AN EMINENT FAMILY OF SHIEKHS WHO CAME WITH BABAR TO INDIA,TOPPED THE SSG COURSE OF 1968,COMMISSIONED IN 1 EAST BENGAL,HIS BOTHER DIED FIGHTING AGAINST SAUDI FORCES IN THE KABA IN 1979,HE TRAINED ALL AFGHANS FROM 1974,I DONT AGREE WITH HIS IDEOLOGY,BUT HE IS GREAT IN HIS OWN RIGHT,HERE IN INTERCONTINENTAL WITH LIEUT GEN SAJJAD AKRAMS BROTHER AND GENERAL MUSHARRAF ( WHO BETRAYED ALL OUR IDEALS DESPITE GREAT INITIAL EXPECTATIONS).A GRADUATE OF US ARMY INFANTRY SCHOOL FORT BENNING.HE TRAINED EVERYONE INCLUDING MULLA UMAR AND KARZAI.AN INSTITUTION .A GREAT MAN.ONE WHO SHUNS PUBLICITY.MY DISTANT RELATIVE.A MAN I HAVE ADMIRED FOR HIS PROFESSIONALISM.RESPECTED BY ALL AFGHANS INCLUDING KARZAI,NORTHERN

ALLIANCE,MUJAHIDS,TALIBS,AL QAEDA,MY LEFTIST BROTHERS,HE IS A MAN OF CHARACTER,HE WAS NOT FOR MONEY,NOR WAS HIS BROTHER WHO ATTAINED MARTYRDOM IN THE KAABBAA IN 1979 AGAINST SAUDI FORCES,MY PRAYERS FOR MY DISTANT COUSIN WITH BROTHER IN LAW OF MULLAH IZZAT,THE MUJAHID COMMANDER TURNED BUSINESS MAN WHO HAS DEVELOPED QARGAH AS AN EXCELLENT RESORT

THE FUTURE OF INDO PAK CONFLICT 30 November 2008 http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2008/11/future-of-indo-pak-conflict-ahamin_30.html A.H AMIN Only fools think that peace can be established in between Pakistan and India. The roots of this conflict are deep.Roots which go back 1300 years in history. Broad stages of this process are as following:-1-Initial Arab Muslim Attacks and the Carmathian Kingdom of Multan -711-1005 2-Turkish Muslim Attacks from what is now modern Afghanistan -1005-1206 3-Establishment of Muslim Dynasty in India and rules of various dynasties-1206-1526 4-Mughal Empire 1526-1707 5-Fragmentation of Mughal Empire and Hindu Sikh and Jat Revolts -1707-1748 6-Consolidation of Hindu and Sikh States in India -1748-1803 5-Sikhs and Hindu States Challenged and Muslims Rescued by English East India Company 18031849. 6-Complete British Control on India 1849-1947 7-Partition of India and Establishment of Pakistan and Bharat 8-Re start of the Hindu Muslim struggle and its continuation -1947-todate including three wars and a series of multiple undeclared wars. The partition of India did not end the Hindu Muslim confrontation because of the genocide during transfer of population and the Kashmir Dispute. Both states were suspicious of each other which led to three wars.Both states launched various undeclared proxy wars against each other. The major trends were :-1-Militarisation and an arms race between the two states from 1947 till todate. 2-Resort to military means to achieve ends in 1947,1965 and 1971. 3-Acquisition of nuclear power by India and in turn Pakistani nuclear acquisitions -1973-1998. 4-The 1971 war which created Bangladesh another Muslim state and the deep psychological trauma of defeat in Pakistan. 5-The Afghan war which militarised Pakistan and introduced a new militant Islam consisting of many non state actors-1978-2008 and the trend is intensifying.

6-The Afghan guerrilla war and its repitition in Kashmir 7-Another homegrown religious militancy in shape of Shia Sunni rivalry following Iranian revolution of 1979. 8-US occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 which further complicated the issue. Centre of gravity/strength/weaknesses of Pakistan:-1-Pakistani nuclear programme. 2-Pakistans Army 3-Pakistans ideology.Disturb this as against ethnicity and the country is balkanised. 4-With conventional forces Indians can defeat Pakistan but the nuclear deterrent of Pakistan is a major hurdle. 5-Its multi ethnic structure is a weakness. Centre of gravity/strength/weaknesses of India:-1-Militarily it has depth and difficult to defeat. 2-Its political system which has so far successfully stood the challenges of time. 3-Pakistan does not have the military potential to defeat India. 4-Its economy which so far is vibrant. 5-Its multi ethnic structure is a weakness.Particularly its huge Muslim minority. The major features of the situation are:-1-Continuous increase in conventional forces since 1947 on both sides. 2-Acquisition of nuclear weapons and missile technology by both sides. 3-An ever increasing intelligence operations waged by both sides right from 1947 , notably ficussing on ethnic wars,sectarian wars,terrorist acts with both sides using neighbouring states like Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Nepal,Sri Lanka,UAE,Tajikisatn,Iran,Burma,Azerbaijan,Uzbekistan and various other countries as launching pads. 4-Increase in population and rapid decrease in resources on both sides notably the water and power issues. 5-Both countries are multi ethnic while India has a large Muslim minority.Both countries have a nationalities problem. 6-Various third parties want to use both Pakistan and India against each other or against China , notably this includes both USA and China,so this further complicates the issue. 7-Non state actors have become a serious contender on both sides i the last ten years.These actors can be manipulated by third parties to create teror in India or Pakistan. 8-In Pakistan the military is a direct beneficiary of any armed conflict and is against any long term peace settlement.Further in Pakistan policy making is manipulated and dominated by the military whereas in India the civilian decision makers are in control. Seen in this context the future trends would be :--

1-The intelligence wars will continue in Indian,Balochistan,Karachi,Pashtun areas and Afghanistan and both sides will try their best to undermine each other. 2-Conventional wars will not be fought because of the nuclear deterrent but wars will be fought by economic warfare,low intensity warfare etc. 3-Islamic extremism will remain a rising and expanding phenomenon and would have the potential of seriously destroying Pakistan. 4-A superpower intervention to denuclearise Pakistan is a distinct possibility in the next ten years if superpower efforts to bring change through covert means and through cultivated elements fails in Pakistan.This is a distinct possibility . The conflict will continue unless :-1- A major armed conflict decides the issue- 50 % 2- Unless both India and Pakistan are Balkanised or one of them is Balkanised - 50 % 3-Both the states are denuclearised and settle their disputes- 10 % 4-The statlemate continues with the silent intelligence wars going on for the next 50 years --- 60 % chance Having said that I must add one incident that my father narrated when he visited West Germany in 1988 .He asked the hosts " Can the Germanies unite? " .....not in our lifetime came the reply " ......and it happened in 1991.So prophecy in history is not easy.Sometimes all that we assess proves wrong.So lets hope for the best. http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/

12 December, 2008 A BRIEF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF US PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN MADE IN SEPTEMBER 2005-USA CHINA STRATEGY-USA AND CHINESE MUSLIMS-KURDISTANBALOCHISTAN

A BRIEF STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF US PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN MADE IN SEPTEMBER 2005 BY AGHA AMIN http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2008/12/brief-strategic-assessment-of-us.html The distinction between Islamist and non Islamists is being fast transformed into US versus Anti US Forces. Afghanistan may prove to be an area of strategic convergence for Islamists,China,Russia and even Pakistan and Iran which are logically phase two US targets. It is naieve to think that the USA came to Afghanistan to deal with the Talibs. USA's choices

Deal with Afghanistan alone and consolidate.This would not be cost effective for USA.The investment it has made is too big. Widen the front to phase two.Pakistan and Iran.Phase three may be Chinese Singkiang and Phase Four Central Asian Republics. Withdraw from Afghanistan while retaining a central position to strike at any target in the area.Possibly an independent Baloch state carved out of Iran and Pakistan or Iran alone at first and Pakistani Baluchistan later.

China and Russia's Choices

Allow USA an uncontested stay and risk a Muslim rising in Singkiang in the next ten years and US domination of Central Asian republics. Aid anti US forces using non state actors in Pakistan and state actors in other areas. Strengthen alliances with Iranian and Pakistani states.

Pakistan and Iran's choices
• • •

Accept US domination and scrap WMD programmes. Strengthen alliances with China and Russia. Aid anti US forces in Afghanistan with Chinese and Russian blessings.

Major Actors
• • •

The anti US forces are divided in two parts , state and non state actors. Main bases of non state actors are in Pakistan,Iran and Middle East. The Pakistani and Iranian states are the forward states having direct borders with Afghanistan and are involved in the Afghan game via state and non state actors.

Key Strategic trends

Realisation in Pakistan that Pakistani WMD apparatus is a future target of USA with Afghanistan as base. Realisation in both China and Russia that the strategic salvation of both lies in aiding anti US groups , particularly in Afghanistan. Pakistan as the best base area of anti US groups operating in Afghanistan more because of non state actors. In order to deal with non state actors USA at some stage will have to deal with both Pakistan and Iran. USA seems strategically clueless and is playing a waiting game. Time is the key , anti US forces can wait for ten years but every second USA is losing money . USA has to achieve a tangible strat objective. Both China and Russia will use the Islamic card like USA used it in Afghanistyan from 1979 till 1989. Militarily an anti US war in Afghanistan aided by China and Russia can prove to be USA's Spanish ulcer. Anti US forces in Afghanistan Pakistan and Iran are intact and can change the strat balance.US hold in Afghanistan is confined to key cities. The drug mafia is a major US opponent and can sustain anti US forces in Afghanistan. Islamists have realised that they must have China and Russia as allies. The same realisation is taking place in China and Rusia. Thus the convergence of interest.

• • • •

• • • •

US strategic options are:-•

To create alternate drug mafia which is non Pahtun and create new states which are US allies like Balochistan,Kurdistan . And possibly a non Pashtun state in North Afghanistan.

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2008/12/how-fourth-indo-pak-war-will-befought.html

23 December, 2008 HOW THE FOURTH INDO PAK WAR WILL BE FOUGHT

HOW THE FOURTH INDO PAK WAR WILL BE FOUGHT by A.H Amin 24 December 2008

THE FOURTH INDO PAK WAR WILL BE FOUGHT ON THE SIDE LINES.IN THE SHADOWS AND IN THE BACKWATERS.A DIRTY WAR WITH NO LINEAR BOUNDARIES. THE SCENARIO HAS VARIOUS ACTORS:-1-THE DIRECT PARTICIPANTS - PAKISTAN AND INDIA 2-THE MAIN THIRD PARTIES- USA AND CHINA

PAKISTANI MILITARY MINDSET AND ATTITUDE 1- THE PAKISTANI MILITARY SEES NON STATE ACTORS AS USEFUL AUXILLARIES SINCE 1979 AFGHAN WAR.USE OF PROXIES WAS ACTUALLY FIRST PRACTISED BY INDIA IN 1971 BY THE CREATION OF MUKTI BAHINI IN BENGAL.THESE WERE HOWEVER PERFECTED BY PAKISTAN IN THE AFGHAN WAR AND LATER IN KASHMIR. 2- THE PAKISTANI MILITARY HOLDS THE VIEW THAT SINCE NUCLEARISATION INDIA WILL NOT RESORT TO CONVENTIONAL WAR.

3- THE PAKISTANI MILTARY VIEWS INDIA AS A THREAT TO PAKISTANS EXISTENCE AND ALSO A REASON WHY THE MILITARY PRIMACY IN PAKISTAN IS INSURED FOR PERPETUITY. 4- THE NON STATE ACTORS IN PAKISTAN HAVE ALSO BEEN INFILTRATED BY USA AND INDIA.THIS HAS HAPPENED IN REACTION TO PAKISTANI MILITARY ADVENTURES IN USING PROXIES AS THEIR TOOLS AND ALSO AN INDEPENDENT ACTION IN CASE OF USA TO FORCE THE PAKISTANI MILITARY TO FIGHT AGAINST NON STATE ACTORS. 5- US PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN IS ALSO REGARDED AS A THREAT BY THE PAKISTANI MILITARY. US POLICY TOWARDS PAKISTAN:-1-DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS USING INTERNAL AGENTS AND ALSO BY USING EXTERNAL THREATS. 2-THE USA SEES INDIA AS AN EFFECTIVE EXTERNAL AGENT IN REDUCING PAKISTAN TO SIZE. 3-REDUCING PAKISTAN TO SIZE IN US EYES MEANS :-a . DENUCLEARISING PAKISTAN b. RETAINING THE PAKISTANI MILITARY AS A USEFUL AND CHEAP MERCENARY FORCE TO COMBAT EXTREMIST FORCES IN THE REGION. c. HAVING A WEAK CENTRE IN PAKISTAN AND STRONG PROVINCES WITH GRADUAL CREATION OF INDEPENDENT STATES IN KARACHI,BALOCHISTAN,NORTHERN AREAS,KASHMIR ETC.

d. DEALING THE PASHTUN QUESTION BY UNITING ALL PASHTU AREAS IN ONE STATE SO THAT THE ISSUE OF CROSS BORDER PURUSIT IS PUT AT REST AND PASHTUNS CAN BE BOMBED WITHOUT MERCY INTO SUBMISSION.PRESENTLY THIS BOMBING IS BEING DONE BY MANIPULATING THE PAKISTANI MILITARY. THE USA SEES THE PASHTUN AREAS OF PAKISTAN AS BASES OF AL QAEDA AND TALIBAN AND THESE HAVE TO BE NEUTRALISED AND SEPARATED FROM NUCLEAR ARMED PAKISTAN. 4-THE LIKELY POSSIBILITIES:--a. USE OF NON STATE ACTORS TO INTENSIFY THE INDIAN PAKISTANI CONFRONTATION. b. USE OF ETHNIC CARD TO REDUCE THE RESOLUTION OF THE PAKISTANI MILITARY. c. LIMITED AIR STRIKES ON PAKISTANI INFRA STRUCTURE CREATING A POST 1990 TO 2003 TYPE IRAQ. 5-DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS-A POSSIBLE SCENARIO:-a. US WITHDRAWAL FROM SOUTH AFGHANISTAN ALLOWING THE CREATION OF A PASHTUN STATE WHILE RETAINING US BASES IN KABUL,HERAT,NIMROZ AND NORTH AFGHANISTAN. b. DEPLOYMENT OF AN INDIAN CORPS,LATER ENLARGED TO TWO CORPS IN KABUL AND SHUMALI PLAINS WITH JALALABAD AND TORKHAM KABUL ROAD HELD BY THE AFGHAN NATIONAL AIRMY WITH HEAVY

US AIR SUPPORT FROM JALALABAD BASE. THE INDIAN CORPS WOULD BE NECESSARY IN KABUL TO CHECK THE TALIBANS ALLOWED AS A POLICY TO LIBERATE SOUTH AFGHANISTAN BE HALTED SOUTH OF KABUL AND NOT TO CROSS THE LINE ZARANJ SHINDAND GHOR AJRISTAN WARAS KABUL AZRA DUR BABA.THIS HAS TO BE AN ESSENTIAL PART OF THE DESIGN BECAUSE THE TALIBAN RESURGENCE WOULD NOT EFFECT US DESIGNS AS LONG AS THEY STAY SOUTH OF KABUL.AN INDIAN CORPS AT KABUL AND ANOTHER AT BAGRAM SHUMALI BOWL CAN HOLD TALIBAN FOR ETERNITY BECAUSE THE LOCAL POPULATION IN THESE AREAS IS ANTI TALIB LESS THE PASHTUN SUB URBS OF KARTE NAU AND LOGAR ROAD CHECK POINT. c. DEVELOPMENT OF ANARCHY IN PAKISTANS TRIBAL AREAS AND THEIR MERGER IN THE SOUTH AFGHAN TALIB RULED PASHTUN STATE. d. DEVELOPMENT OF INSURGENCY IN PAKISTANI BALOCHISTAN WITH US AND INDIAN ASSISTANCE.INDIANS CAN ALWAYS JUSTIFY DOING SO BY LINKING IT WITH BOMBAY ATTACKS.THE SAME CAN BE EXPANDED INTO IRANIAN BALOCHISTAN. e. ECONOMIC BLOCKADE OF PAKISTAN LEADING TO AN IRAQ 1990-2003 LIKE SITUATION. 6- PAKISTANI MILITARYS REACTION AND POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:--

a. NUCLEAR MOBILISATION AGAINST INDIA. b. NEGOTIATED DENUCLEARISATION AGREEMENT WITH USA. c. CONTINUATION OF THE STALEMATE WHICH MAY LAST FOR A

DECADE. d. FACTOR X -- ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACK ON USA e. A RUSSIAN US CONFRONTATION f. A MAJOR NATURAL DIASASTER 7- ANALYSIS:-a. ANY MAJOR US SUCCESS IN PAKISTAN WOULD BE A DEATHBLOW TO CHINA WHICH WILL BE FIGHTING A GUERRILLA WAR IN SINGKIANG OR EVEN TIBET IN NEXT TEN YEARS. b. ANY MAJOR US CONSIOLIDATION IN NORTH AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN WOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR US DOMINATION OF CENTRAL ASIA WHICH WOULD BE FATAL FOR RUSSIA. c. IF THE USA FAILS IN AFGHANISTAN , CHINA AND RUSSIA WILL BE THE MAJOR GAINERS BUT IT APPEARS THAT CHINESE LEADERSHIP HAS ZERO IQ.RUSSIA IS BETTER LED AND PUTIN IS THE ONLY MAN WHO CAN CHANGE THE COURSE OF HISTORY. SEEN IN THIS CONTEXT THE REGION WOULD SEE A MAJOR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGE IN THE PERIOD 2009-2014.THE USA IS ALL SET TO FIGHT A NEW KIND OF WAR .A DANGEROUS WAR. ONE THING IS GOOD ABOUT WAR . ITS COURSE IS UNPREDICTABLE AND THOSE WHO START IT OR MANIPULATE IT CANNOT MANIPULATE WHAT HAPPENS IN ACTUAL WAR.SO ONE THING IS CLEAR . THE AMERICANS WANT TO CHANGE THE MAPS,THE BOUNDARIES , BUT WHERE THE WAR WILL LEAD TO WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.EVEN FOR THE AMERICANS.PAKISTAN WILL BE THE MAJOR LOSER AND INDIA ALSO IN CASE A NUCLEAR

WAR STARTS. THE SERIES OF EVENTS WHICH BEGAN WITH THE INDIAN EMBASSY ATTACK IN KABUL AND ENDED AT BOMBAY IS FAR MORE COMPLEX THAN LASHKAR I TAYYABA OR AL QAEDA.THIS IS A CASE OF INDIA BEING MANIPULATED TO FIGHT A WAR . A WAR WHICH NEITHER INDIA NOR PAKISTAN WOULD WIN . http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2008/12/ongoing-war-in-iranian-balochistan.html

31 December, 2008 INSURGENCY IN IRANIAN BALOCHISTAN-DECEMBER 2008 ASSESSMENT INSURGENCY IN IRANIAN BALOCHISTAN-DECEMBER 2008 ASSESSMENT

AGHA.H.AMIN

STATELESS MAN AND CITIZEN OF WILDERNESS

CLICK ON MAP TO ENLARGE.

ALSO NOTE THAT THIS MAP IS NOT COPY AND PASTE STUFF BUT BASED ON MANY YEARS OF RESEARCH BY A.H AMIN IN IRANIAN , PAKISTANI AND AFGHANISTANI BALOCHISTAN

THE ONGOING WAR IN IRANIAN BALOCHISTAN HAS NOT RECIEVED MUCH MEDIA ATTENTION. THIS BRIEF WRITE UP IS BASED ON PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE BASED ON TERRAIN PHYSICALLY TRAVERSED. SALIENT FEATURES:--1-FOCUS OF THE WAR IS THE CHAH BAHAR PISHIN ZAHIDAN ZABUL HIGHWAY 2-SOURCES OF FUNDS ARE (1) DRUG TRAFFICKING (2)DONATIONS FROM EXPATRIATE BALOCH.

3-IT HAS BEEN ASSERTED THAT SOME PART OF THE RESISTANCE IS HAVING AMERICAN BACKING. MOST SALIENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A SUICIDE ATTACK BY A YOUNG BALOCH YOUTH. On 29 December 2008, Abdul Ghafoor Rekki Baloch smashed his vehicle (DoHazar Toyota Pickup) in the morning parade of Iranian soldiers and detonated 2000 kilogram of C4 explosives in the town of Sarawan Iranian-occupied Balochistan. Confirm reports say 150 Iranian soldiers died in the attack. Many more Iranians have died but Iranians are not giving the true figure of casualties. MORE IN DUE COURSE AS I AM DRAWING THE MAPS

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/01/usas-future-strategic-options-in.html 03 January, 2009 USA's FUTURE STRATEGIC OPTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN-A.H AMIN USA's FUTURE STRATEGIC OPTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN

By A.H Amin The USA is struck in the Afghan quagmire with no end in sight since 2001.

The cenral and governing summing up of the Afghan war is as following:-1-The non Pashtu population of Afghanistan will not accept Taliban rule over entire Afghanistan. 2-The neighbours of Afghanistan will not accept an uncontrolled and un checked Taliban regime in Afghanistan. 3-It is possible that the Taliban are allowed a state in south Afghanistan which can be militarily and politically kept within bounds of international law.

2009 should be the year when the USA must decide on a clear cut future strategy for Afghanistan.Broadly the USA has four major policy options in Afghanistan. FIRST OPTION:-The first is to continue with the status quo,reinforce the south.This would achieve no clear cut result as US forces are expensive to deploy and US public opinion is against larger committment of US forces. SECOND OPTION:-The second option is to negotiate with the Taliban and withdraw to the line Kabul -Dilaram Nimroz where the population is generally anti Taliban and would support US/NATO forces.This could be followed by a capacity building of Afghan National Army and gradual US/NATO forces in a 15 year period with Bagram retained as a permanent base. THIRD OPTION The third option is to conclude an agreement with regional actors including India,Russia,Iran and Pakistan under which an international peace keeping force is stationed in Afghanistans centre and

north and the Taliban are allowed to create their own state in the south. FOURTH OPTION The fourth option is to announce a withdrawal from Afghanistan and allow an uncontrolled situation to develop.Once this happens Russia,India and Iran would in any case be forced to deploy their forces in Afghanistan in support of the anti Taliban forces of Tajiks,Uzbeks and Hazaras. The first three options are possible alternatives and the fourth is a dangerous risk which the USA may not like to take.

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/01/usas-future-strategic-targets-in-west.html

14 January, 2009 USA's FUTURE STRATEGIC TARGETS IN WEST ASIA IN CASE USA DECIDES TO PURSUE AN AGGRESSIVE POLICY-CLICK ON MAPS TO ENLARGE

17 January, 2009 SCENARIO BATTLE OF KABUL 2010

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/01/scenario-battle-of-kabul2010.html

THE TALIBAN ATTACK KABUL BUT ARE REPULSED AFTER SEVERE LOSSES

US SUPPLY ROUTES TO AFGHANISTAN-BRIEF ANALYSIS 20 JANUARY 2009 AGHA H AMIN ANALYSIS:-1-LONGER ROUTE WITH MORE THREATS TILL BASE LENGTHWISE SPECIALLY TORGHUNDI -KANDAHAR ROUTE. 2-GREATER DEPENDANCE ON TURKMENISTAN WHICH CAN BE INFLUENCED BY RUSSIA. 3-INCREASE IN ALIENATION OF PASHTUN TRANSPORTERS NOW DEALING WITH TRANSPORTATION ON KARACHI BOLDAK AND KARACHI TORKHAM ROUTES. 4-PRACTICALLY THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO ANYTHING MILITARY IN AFGHANISTAN EXCEPT GREATER COMMITTMENT OF TROOPS TO CONVOY DUTIES.GREATER REQUIREMENT OF TROOPS FOR ESCORT DUTIES ON TORGHUNDI KANDAHAR ROAD WILL INCREASE THE MILITARY BURDEN ON AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY AND POLICE.SINCE MOST OF FUEL IS COMING VIA UZBEKISTAN TERMEZ ROUTE RUSSIAN ABILITY TO INFLUENCE EVENTS WOULD BE INCREASED. ALL SAID AND DONE WITHOUT RUSSIAN AND INDIAN ASSISTANCE US WILL BE UNABLE TO CONTROL AFGHANISTAN IN THE LONG RUN. THE KEY WEAKNESS IS EXPENSIVE US MANPOWER,WHILE RUSSIAN IS CHEAPER AND INDIAN TROOPS ARE DIRT CHEAP. AGHA

BELOW ARE THE MAPS THAT I DREW TO EXPLAIN THE SITUATION ON GROUND:--US SYPPLY ROUTES TO AFGHANISTAN-THREATS TO COMMUNICATION MARKED IN YELLOW ON THE MAP

MAP DRAWN BY AGHA H AMIN- 20 JANUARY 2009

A Journalist wrote the following heralding the new great route for Afghanistan:---

"The 218-km road connecting Delaram (on the Kandahar-Herat highway) to Zaranj, on the border with Iran has been completed. It will provide landlocked Afghanistan an alternative access to the sea, the Iranian port of Chahbahar, allowing it to break free from Pakistan’s traditional stranglehold. it remains to be seen if Iran will prove to be a better neighbour than Pakistan. For Afghanistan, this is an opportunity to regain better access to the Indian market that it lost in 1947. For India, it is an opportunity to regain better access to Central Asia that it too lost in 1947." The same writer then produces the below twit of a map to support his highly utopian assertions:--

Unfortunately its not as simple as that .The new route passes through some 218 km of ideal ambush country in Afghanistan and some 600 km of ideal ambush country in Iran. Convoys would require heavy escorts and above all increase Irans clout in case the route is successful. The route will expose ten times more vehicles carrying supplies as compared to the Pakistan route. The threat to NATO communications in Pakistan is actually temporary and its possible that its a veiled protest with Pakistani governments involvement against US drone attacks which have made more enemies for USA without eliminating any of its real foes. The USA needs to understand that Taliban are no longer internationally isolated.Its in the interest of all regional countries to ensure that the USA fails in Afghanistan.So the Taliban is no longer a fatherless child.They have many resourceful fathers now.The developing Chinese and Russian perceptions that if USA suceeds in Afghanistan it would be a fatal blow to both. I drew the attached map below to illustrate the point:--

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/01/usas-strange-logic-about-talibans.html THE USAs STRANGE LOGIC ABPUT TALIBANS CENTRE OF GRAVITY 25 JANUARY 2009

25 January, 2009 THE USA's STRANGE LOGIC ABOUT TALIBANS CENTRE OF GRAVITY-A.H AMIN USA in Afghanistan-A Long Term Strategic View

Agha H Amin

While it is still debatable that 9/11 was a deliberate conspiracy to justify a US occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq or an act of Al Qaeda,the United States of America inherited a historical situation in shape of 9/11 and made use of it to justify launching of a major Neo Operation Barbarossa to occupy the fertile the east !

This article is based on my experiences of 13 years service in the army , 34 years of study of military history including three stints as editor of three journals in Afghanistan and Pakistan and three years of continuous and many more years of interrupted stay in Afghanistan.During the course of my last continuous stay in Afghanistan from 2004 till 2008 I worked as sub contractor with many donor agencies and repeatedly came into contact with many NATO and US military officials.My projects were located in the heart of Taliban country i.e Kandahar,Ghazni,Helmand,Farah,Zabul and Kunar.

With the stated experience my perceptions of Afghanistan may be different in finer aspects from many other views,which may be outwardly neat and logical but lack the solid conviction and finnesse stemming out of an exhaustive study of military history and an on ground experience not depending on what you may read or hear from the print or the live media.

There is one similarity in US and USSR invasion of Afghanistan.Both happened because of an apparently third party action which were used by policy makers in both countries to justify an

attack.Here the similarity ends.The USSR entered Afghanistan in a bipolar world where major powers decided to oppose the USSR tooth and nail and with equal and subsequently greater might.The USA entered Afghanistan in a unipolar world when no major power supported anti US insurgents.Further the USA entered Afghanistan with long term strategic plans while the USSR entered Afghanistan to support a leftist regime with whom it had a treaty of cooperation.The USSR did not enlarge its offensive after Afghanistan but the USA is continuously enlarging its offensive with the major Phase Two being the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the ongoing 2007-9 mysterious upsurge in Pakistan.Mysterious I maintain because of what I saw in Afghanistan from 2004 till 2008 and till to date.

The USA was lucky to have in Pakistan on the eve of its arrival a military tinpot dictator who was ready to sell his soul to even the devil to preserve his illegitimately won seat of power.

In retrospect as I analsyse now the US Afghan war followed the following distinct phases :--

1-An initial arm twisting manoeuvre of Pakistans illegitimate military regime to secure ground,aerial and logistic passage.This happened from October 2001 and continues till to date. 2-Pressurising the illegitimate Pakitsani military regime into launching operation in Waziristan when there was no insurgency in Waziristan from 2002 till 2006 thus destablising a most strategically sensitive region of Pakistan and internally dividing Pakistan. 3-Strengthening US military presence in Afghanistan in terms of constructing permanent air bases for possible future long term use to dominate the region including Pakistan,Iran,Central Asia,Chinese

Singkiang and India. 4-Creation of an intelligence operation base from where third party penetration operations could be mounted to infiltrate any extremist or ethnic group in conflict with its parent countrys federal government.The prime immediate target being Pakistan,while Iran,China,Central Asian States may possibly be later phase targets.This phase started from November 2001 and continues till to date. 5-Forcing the illegitimate Musharraf military regime to mount another military operation in Mohmand and Bajaur thus destabilisng another strategically sensitive region of Pakistan and to discredit the Pakistani armed forces.This started from 2005 and continues till to date.

A dispassionate reader may form his own conclusions from the following observations that I have:--

1-At no stage from 2001 till to date did the US or NATO forces mount any major military operation inside Afghanistan against Taliban.Actually the force ratios of US and NATO forces does not allow this in any case. 2-All major US Army and USAID and NATO construction contracts sub contracted at third and fourth tiers to contractors who were Taliban after sunset and contractors after sun rise.All this happened with US military officials in full knowledge. 3-While major Taliban infiltration from Pakistan to Afghanistan takes place in the 1400 km tract in between Gomal River and Chaghai Hills the US Government at no stage pressurised the Pakistani illegitimate military regime of Musharraf to interdict this influx ! 4-All the US pressure on Pakistan was to take military action in Waziristan from where hardly 10 % of influx into Afghanistan was taking place ! Later the US pressure also expanded to include Bajaur and

Mohmand who have a very short less than 300 km border with Pakistan. 5-Thus while major Taliban attacks were taking place on US and NATO forces in Helmand,Kandahar and Zabul who have no border with Waziristan , all along the US Government was pressusrizing the Pakistani Government to attack the Taliban in Waziristan which accounts for less than 5 % damage to any US or NATO forces in Afghanistan in terms of length of border contagious with provinces where maximum US and NATO casualties took place !

6-Till 2007 I could travel from Kabul on one end to Herat on the far end via Kandahar in a private car without any weapon safely.But not after 2007.Suddenly everything changed and USA and NATO forces took no action from 2007 till to date to secure this area ! 7-Despite the fact that no major US casualties took place in Khost and Paktika provinces adjacent to Wazisristan and Kunar and Nigrahar Provinces adjacent to Khyber Agency,Bajaur and Mohmand and Dir/Swat the USA spent a fortune on bases and infrastructure building in these provinces.Construction profits were made by the very tribes fighting the Pakistan Army in Waziristan,Khyber,Bajaur and Mohmand. 8-No container taking supplies to NATO at the height of Taliban operations in Afghanistan was attacked in any area of Pakistan in bewteen 2001 and 2008 but in 2008 mysterious attacks started ! The deductions are as following :--

1-The USA did not come to Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban.

2-The USA by design destabilised Waziristan ,Khyber ,Bajaur and Mohmand to create a war like situation to justify international action to denuclearise Pakistan. 3-The USA forced the Pakistan Army to enter Waziristan,Bajaur and Mohmand because of the close proximity of these areas to Pakistans strategic heartland of North Punjab NWFP Islamabad containing the vast bulk of Pakistans political military and nuclear outfits.This was a logical continuation of the fact that because of having large military and inteligence setups in Khost Jalalabad Kunar and Sharan it was logistically and operational ideal for US intelligence to act as bases of these intelligence games.Bajaur and Mohmand thus served as a catalyst to militarise and destabilise Swat because of close proximity and creation of large number of refugees who partly migrated or fled to Swat. 3-Pakistan needs to drastically revise itsforeign policy making a clean break with USA and NATO and making peace with India,alliance with Russia and China and Iran while preserving its nuclear deterrent.Lastly its worthwile to quote a US statesman.To be a friend of USA is one thing but to be its friend is deadly ! All these assertions are not a sudden revelation for this scribe.The same theme was harped on in various articles of mine that were published in daily Nation,Statesman,PRAVDA and www.orbat.com since September 2001.In 2003 when my article on use of Waziristan as a pedestal to destabilise Pakistan was published in daily Statesman Peshawar,the editor e mailed me that he would not publish any more articles as my article “ The Gathering Storm” on Waziristan had caused an uproar in the Pakistani Army Headquarters (October 2003).I have published this e mail on www.chowk.com and on my blog also. E MAIL FROM EDITOR THE STATESMAN PESHAWAR ADMITTING THAT MY ARTICLE ON WAZIRISTAN CAUSED A FUROR IN THE TINPOT MUSHARRAF REGIME HIERARCHY:--

The USA is part of Pakistans problems.Friendship with USA is not the solution.But who will bell the cat.Who will make the resolute decision ! No peace in sight till Pakistans statesmen and generals stop sleeping with the devil ! Pakistans history is a convincing proof that wrong forever is on the throne and truth forever is on the scaffold ! Its a proof that Imam Hussain died in vain at Karbala while the true path was him to have an NRO with Yazeed.Musharrafs prosperity is a proof that Yazid if he was alive now would have delivered lectures at Yale and Brookings.Pakistans history is a proof that those who sell their souls are the winners.In black magic terminology they say that in order to pass the final black magic test the

practitioner has to kill his own children and use their blood for the final test.Pakistans leaders are a living proof of this !

Tailpiece-- Instead of signing a transit trade treaty involving India in India ,Pakistans president signed it in USA , thus robbing the event of all its significance.Telling the whole world that Pakistan has done it after being arm twisted by USA.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN 7 FEBRUARY 2009 http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/02/what-will-happen-if-usa-withdrawsfrom.html

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWSFROM AFGHANISTAN A.H AMIN What will happen if he USA withdraws from Afghanistan? This question haunts the minds of many key decision makersworldwide. Having stayed in Afghanistan from 2003 till 2009 and having travelledthe entire length and breadth of the country , following are mytwo cents :-1-A new Afghan civil war would recommence with immense ferocity. 2-Since the population of Afghanistan's Northern half does not like the Taliban , the would welcome with open arms any foreign power which intervenes in Afghanistan against Taliban. 3-These could include Russia,Iran,India,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,Turkmenistan,Turkey etc. 4-Taliban would immediately within four weeks control south Afghanistanbut would be unable to capture Kabul. 5-Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may be the only countries which would support Taliban.

6-USA would lose all credibility that it has gained in Afghanistan till todate and Russians,Indians and Iranians would control North Afghanistan. 7-Groundwork will be done and Afghanistan would be partitioned into a Pashtun and Non Pashtun state. 8-This in turn would lead to Pashtun resurgence in the region and a new Pashtun state may be created. 9-The Taliban would stay isolated internationally. 10-South Afghanistan would be a haven of all anti US groups. 11-The region would remain unstable the instability can spread to Iran , Pakistan,India and China. 12-The next Indo Pak war would be fought by proxy in Afghanistan. 13-The war in Afghanistan has the potential to trigger an Indo Pakistan nuclear trigger off. A POLISH CITIZENS LIFE HAS NO VALUE IN WAR ON TERROR-EVEN TALIBANS ARE RACISTS 08 February, 2009 Piotr Stanczak--Polish Engineer Murdered because he was a Polish Citizen and not an American citizen

in the end the taliban wanted the pakistani governmemt to release just 4 taliban but the pakistani government refused. had it been a US citizen the Americans would have kicked the pakistani goverbnment and the American would have been rescued. the same had happened in PIA hijacking of 1981 when the Pakistani government had accepted all AZO demands when they had threatened to kill a US citizen on board. The Americans know how to kick the pakistani government ! Life goes on ! Life of a Pole is far cheaper in the eyes of the Pakistani government than a US citizen !

INDIAN ARMY OFFICER AND AFGHAN LAND MINE

09 February, 2009 Indian Major Becomes Muslim to Enjoy Marriage for 15 days with now posibly bitter consequences

Indian Major Becomes Muslim to Enjoy Marriage for 15 days 12 February, 2009 How Far will USA fail and succeed-How far can Obama or Holbrooke go-A.H Amin How Far will USA fail and succeed http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-far-will-usa-fail-and-succeedhow.html Agha H Amin

While Obama in personal terms did well and became the first mixed origin man to become US president it is unfair to expect many changes that Obama or his team can bring. Holbrooke may be giant of a man but his stature has to be judged in correlation to the various complicated and often overwhelming forces of history. Three major foreign policy issues confront USA.The Arab Israel Issue,the Afghanistan issue and the India Pakistan issue.In the background is the more formidable albeit more intangible issue of Islamic extremism. The first and last issues above listed include state actors and the Afghan issue is a combination of non state and state actors. It appears that Obama can only have a semblance of success in the Arab Israel Issue.That is if he can just pursue the brilliant plan put forward by Rabbi Michael Lerner,pushing into the garbage all nonsense that the state department pen pusher clerk type burueaucrats or the crafty think tanks may try to put forward. Described as wet p_____s by an American Doug Scherer who I respect , little of any consequence is expected from these smart social climber middle class kids who think in personal terms rather than country or honour.These are not the Americans of the calibre of Lee Stonewall Jackson or Macarthur. In Afghanistan no amount of Holbrookes can succeed.Here the issue is a complex one.With more than 11 states having extreme outlooks about whether the Talibans should be or should not be allowed to rule Afghanistan.The issue is highly complex.In Bosnia the issue was far simpler with Russia far away and Europe extremely divided.Nor were the mild Bosnian Muslims a threat to Europe.In Afghanistan we have Russia,Iran,India,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,Kirgizistan,Turkmenistan,Kazakhastan,China,whole of NATO as well as USA against Taliban whose only possible vallies are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.Where will Holbrooke fit in in this omplex game as the magician who had achieved a

miracle at Dayton ? Afghanistan is and will remain for many decades a catch 22 for the USA.It is not like a Vietnam from which the USA can withdraw.The Vietnamese were a race using an ideology to survive.In Afghanistan its an ideology with multiple races that the USA is fighting.In Vietnam withdrawal was an option.In Afghanistan withdrawal will not lead to a solution but to another more bitter and deadly phase of the war.If the USA withdraws it will lose and if it stays it will continue to suffer with no end in sight for many decades.This is the tragedy of USA's situation in Afghanistan.Even if thve USA withdraws the Afghan civil war would continue and other state actors would intervene,while the USA would lose all allies that it had created in Afghanistan.So if we have to grade USA in Afghanistan the solution is not in sight.Holbrooke will fail. Now we come to Kashmir.The Pakistani establishment ,and I will not call it a state because Pakistan is controlled by a small clique of about 1000 families and a pathetic equation of highly corrupt politicians and respectably corrupt generals .Now these 1000 families which constitute the Pakistani establishment are trying to sell the idea to the USA is that Kashmir issue is solved the threat to world peace in shape of nuclear war can be avoided.As an ex soldier I do not think that Kashmir would solve the issue.Kashmir resolved or not resolved the Indo Pak conflict will continue till one party is defeated or both or one of the two disintegrate.Seen in this context what would poor Holbrooke do.He will in the end emerge as a shattered ,immensely weakened and totally confused man.In any case in terms of international law Pakistan and India by agreed terms of Simla Accord of 1973 cannot allow a third party to decide Kashmir Issue. So good luck to Holbrooke , a man of substance , from whom too much should not be expected.What he is expected to do is what no single man can achieve.The Pakistani state should forget about any hope of getting Kashmir through Holbrooke .If Pakistans politicians and generals can preserve what is left of Pakistan , posterity will remember them as

heroes.From the type of strategy or more correctly apology of strategy that the Pakistani state is purusing in Frontier and Balochistan , even preserving what is left of Pakistan would be a great achievement. Lastly with economic depression engulfing USA and the West little should be hoped from USA or Obama or Holbrooke.All would be at a loss and all should be commended if they can retain what they have rather than doing what no one could do. At the strategic level the USA must assess its role.Either isolation or acceptance of constant strife in a complex and imperfect world. Little good should be accepted.In this age the guiding precept should be Neither Hope Nor Fear.

12 February, 2009 TALIBAN CONTROLLED AREA OVER STATED IN LONG WARS JOURNALS MAP

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/02/taliban-controlled-area-overstated-in.html

dear ravi

cc- Long Wars Journal

this refers to the map in long wars journal,link given on http://www.orbat.com/ which i find factually incorrect and not based on ground realities. i am shocked that roggio has placed a very mild district chitral as taliban.even dir is placed under taliban control which is fallacious. intellectual honesty demands that you place my corrections link on your orbat.com i hope that such distortions will be avoided in future attached are my markings on roggios maps.

attached is my recent picture in an area which is claimed in the map to be under talib control.

kind regards

agha

12 February, 2009 THE NWFP INSURGENCY SUMMED UP IN FEW WORDS-A.H AMIN THE NWFP INSURGENCY SUMMED UP IN FEW WORDS A.H AMIN

This is an indigenous movement .

A result of general dissatisfaction based on economy expressed in religious terms.the supply route is long and that itself proves that the movement is indigenous.the army may crack up in next 6 months. All movements have various elements,indigenous,external, international,this one too has them The crux is that since troops were hesitant in closing in with the insurgents, so excessive reliance was placed on artillery,tanks and air power. That in turn created unacceptable collateral damage. This in turn set up a train of events slow but irresistiblE and irrevocably against the army. This is a situation of possible impending breakdown which happened in 1917 to russian army and to iranian army in 1917 and Iranian Army in 1979. The USA should not push the Pakistan Army too much ......that is unless the USA's aim is that the Pakistan Army breaks down and this is a justtification for USA and its allies to reduce Pakistan to size ? The situation can spin badly out of control .

18 February, 2009 KOHAT TUNNEL-STRATEGIC BOTTLENECK SERIES

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/02/kohat-tunnel-strategicbottleneck.html

stranded container trucks south of Kohat Tunnel when it was closed die to Taliaban Attack

Friendship tunnel(also called Kohat tunnel) is Pakistan’s longest road tunnel and the second longest tunnel in the country over all. It is located between Kohat and Peshawar on 1264 kilometer long highway N55 (also called the Indus Highway). N55 provides a 410 kilometer shorter and an alternate route between Karachi and Peshawar as compared to N 5 Highway linking Karachi with Peshawar via Lahore. The tunnel has been dug in the hills consisting of lime stone dating as far back as Jurassic era. It is estimated that Kohat tunnel reduces the travel time between Peshawar and Kohat by 40 minutes. The distance between Peshawar and Kohat is also reduced by approximately 25 kilometers.

Kohat tunnel is built by the monetary and technical assistance from Japan therefore it was offically renamed as Pakistan-Japan Friendship Tunnel. Technical assistance for the tunnel also came from Malaysia. 100% funding for the tunnel was provided by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). Vital Statistics:--Length of Kohat Tunnel: 1.885 kilometer.Width of Pavement: 7.3 meters - There is one lane in each direction.Pavement Type: ConcreteVentilation System: 11 Jet fansSafety Facilities:--Emergency Phones, Fire Extinguishers and Emergency bays.Vehicle Weight Limit: 10 tons per axleHeight of Vehicle: 5.1 mWidth of Vehicle: 2.5 m Approach Road Length: 7.79 km (north) and 20.955 km (south)Approach Road Pavement Type: AsphaltWidth of Approach Roads: 7.3 mWidth of Shoulders: 3.0 m

The approach roads to Kohat Tunnel also include construction of seven bridges and four under passes. The largest bridge is constructed over Toi River, South of Kohat town. Speed Limit: 90 kmph on level pavement, 80 kmph on hilly pavement and 40 kmph inside the tunnel.

kohat Tunnel is a major bottle neck on the Indus Highway ,the shortest route from Karachi Port to Peshawar.In case it is closed bypassing involves a 150 km plus detour via Attock.

18 February, 2009 WHAT WOULD 16,000 US TROOPS DO -A JOKE

WITH US AND NATO TROOPS CONFINED TO MAIN CITIES AND GARRISONS DESPATCH OF 16,000 US TROOPS IS A JOKE.WHERE WILL THESE POOR 16,000 FELLOWS GO.WHAT WOULD BE THEIR EFFECTIVENESS. ONLY CIVILIAN CONTRACTORS WOULD MAKE MONEY CONSTRUCTING THEIR CAMPS AND MANNING THEIR LOGISTICS.

THE MAPS ABOVE THAT I HAVE DRAWN TO ILLUSTRATE THE POINT .

22 February, 2009 High Mountains,Vast Tracts,Difficult Terrain and a few thousand NATO Soldiers-Is the NATO Command Crazy or its a game -Agha H Amin

23 February, 2009 Reflections on the PATH TO 1000 PERCENT GUARANTEED DIASASTER IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN-THANKS TO NAIEVE US POLICIES-A.H AMIN Secret US unit trains Pakistani commandos ! What a total discrediting of the Pakistan Army ! I cannot imagine why Americans are such naieve idiots ! Or is it their real intention to discredit the Pakistan Army ! The Americans have discovered that the Punjabi Muslims and particularly those from the rain irrigated areas of Pindi Division and some Pashtun tribes like Khattaks and Yusufzais are excellent collaborators against any armed insurrection by the Pashtuns ! There is a striking similarity in Punjabi Muslim troops fighting as British mercenaries in Waziristan in 1920s or 1930s and today ! But for Gods sake , naieve Americans why are you publishing such news items.Why are you discrediting an army already severely discredited in many parts of Pakistan ! Such news and all the training that the Americans are imparting is all a waste. I am really shocked at how the US policy is being run and how the Pakistan Army has been discredited with press reports that Pakistan Army is being trained by US advisors in the art of killing Muslims.Even if the USA is doing it it must tell the NYT etc to keep their dirty mouth shut. One thing is certain ! All that the USA will hear will be bad news in Pakistan and Afghanistan ! In the final reckoning Russia,India and China will gain and billions of dollars of US taxpayers money squandered in Afghanistan would yet still remain a trickle in a gutter where opportunist politicians , generals and Americans and other businessmen made their money.

And then we have conspiracy theorists like Hameed Gul linking the Pashtun war in NWFP with Mossad and CIA and some obscure Madrassa in Badakhshan.I have traversed the region on foot and did not find any such place.And why go to Badakhshan when the supposed insurgents can be trained at the Commando School in Rishkor near Kabul ! One must pity Pakistans present leaders,both politicians and generals ! Where they are heading is certainly a very diasastorous place.And the Americans .They have no grey matter ! Agha.H Amin

24 Feb 2009

23 February, 2009 Comments on General Begs Article on Islamic Revival and US Policy and US Military Objectives against Pakistan-A.H Amin COMMENTS

1-While some parts of General Begs analysis are reasonable I would differ with him on the following aspects:---

a. While it is true that a kind of Muslim resurgence took place as a result of the Afghan war , the motives of the then Zia junta were not Islamist but pure political survival and lust for US and Saudi dollars. b. As a result the Afghan war of 1979-89 in many ways divided the Afghan society and laid the foundations of division of Afghanistan. c. An old ISI hand very closely linked to the Afghan war from 1974, a distant relative and a close friend Colonel Salman told me in a talk in 2001 that the ISI had no north of Hindu Kush strategy because Akhtar Abdul Rahman had picked a phrase from Churchill and modified it as “ Kabul must burn”. d. As a direct result of this imbalance in Pakistans policy in conspiring to remove the de facto government of Afghanistan with dirty US and Saudi dollars , the Afghan Intelligence under the indomitable General Faruq Yaqubi was able to open direct negotiations with more moderate Afghan resistance groups,who were more Afghan oriented and less Peshawar/Quetta/Washington/Riyadh oriented.The idea of Yaqubi was to achieve a rapproachment while reducing the process of total destruction of Afghanistans physical,moral and spiritual destruction under taken by the Mujahids.Thus the first negotiations were opened through Dastagir Panjsheris cousins with Ahmad Shah Massoud in 1981.As a result a ceasefire was achieved in 1983 and the area north of Hindu Kush saved from gangs of desperadoes who were charging 100 USD per electric pylons for destroying electric pylons.As a final part of this strategy many secret protocols were concluded and by 1988 a secret decision was taken to handover power to the more moderate Jamiat I Islami.Thus the occupation of Kabul in 1992 by Massoud forces was no miracle but a planned operation.Unfortunately the same very Mujahids who were groomed by General Yaqubi murdered Yaqubi and later circulated the story that Yaqubi killed himself. e. The Pashtuns during this whole process were militarized and became totally dependent on the Pakistani military apparatus.This situation prevailed from 1989 till 2001.

f. During the civil war of 1992 to 2001 the Pakistani governments policies make more and more partisan and one sided and heavily tilted in favour of Afghanistans Pashtuns while ignoring the non Pashtuns who had also become a politically significant group as a result of both US/US subsidiaries like Pakistan/Saudi Arabia as well as USSR aid. g. After 9/11 the U turn by Pakistani military junta severely damaged Pakistani prestige in Afghanistans Pashtuns as a result of which a new Pashtun resistance less dependent on Pakistani states aid emerged in Afghanistan and also spread in Pakistans tribal areas. h. American strategy appears to be based on consolidating military bases and targeting Pakistan,thus reducing its nuclear potential after which Pakistan is to be reduced to size with Indian assistance.This approach has however been half heartedly purusued by the USA.This is so because denuclearizing Pakistan is a dangerous risk which USA is half hearted about taking.US strategy sees Pakistan as centre of gravity of the Islamist problem and sees denuclearization and Balkanisation of Pakistan while retaining a reliable,cheap,infantry oriented army of Barrani area Punjabis and some useful Khattak Pashtuns as junior partners for the dirty job of tactical garbage collection. i. On the other hand US pressure on Pakistani army to carry out operations in tribal areas has severely affected the credibility of the Pakistan army and the situation in Pashtun areas may be compared to Pashtun alienation after the various tribal revolts of 1600 to 1700 against the Mughals. j. US withdrawal on the other hand would not lead to peace in Afghanistan but another civil war in Afghanistan with a final division of Afghanistan in a Pashtun and Non Pashtun state with Russia.India,Iran,Central Asian Republics supporting the north and Pakistan and Saudi Arabia supporting the Pashtuns. k. Indian intelligence is active but so is Iranian intelligence,Pakistani intelligence,Russian Intelligence etc.

l. The Pashtun alienation in Pakistan is however indigenous and a result of Musharraf juntas Don Quixotic military faux pas in FATA etc. m. It may be a bit rash to see 2009 as Islamic revival.2009 actually may start an age of strategic anarchy which may last about 50 years or so. n. Sectarian and ethnic divisions are so serious in Islamic states that unity may remain a mirage for many years to come.

A.H Amin

24 February, 2009 NATO AND US COMMUNICATIONS TO AFGHANISTAN AND TALIBAN AREA

27 February, 2009 Which Honour Does Obama Talks About-Agha Amin

Which Honour Does Obama Talks About

Agha Amin

At Camp Lejeuene in the Carolinas PresideNT Obama while talking to US soldiers talked about honour. One may ask a simple question " which honour is Obama talking about " or " where is the honour" ? You attack a country with no airforce and air defence with overwhelming forces.So there is hardly any danger to your soldiers which is well proven by your extremely low casualties ! So where is the honour without the dignity of danger for which the soldiers profession is honourable ? You waste US tax payers trillions US Dollars to fight a war with no objective so where is your sanity.Was the Iraq war fought so that some private US companies can make money in construction and reconstruction contracts ? You did not go for Iraqs oil as you say.If so why you wasted trillions in Iraq ? If USA had gone for the Oil in Iraq we could say , " OK there is an objective". What USA did in Iraq neither has honour nor sanity nor logic.Its beyond logic. And no US military or civilian leader dissented ! A fine indicator of lack of intellectual honesty ! You attack a pen of chickens with overwhelming superiority so its not correct to talk about honour ! What is the lesson that Bush and USA have taught the world.If a small country like Iraq does not have

WMDs it will attacked with that strange kind of honour that Obama talks about and destroyed. And then you have totally shameless bulky Arab kings of Saudi Arabia,UAE,Gulf,Egypt etc who buy billions of munitions for killing and controlling their own people ! What a disgrace ! So there is logic in North Korea and Pakistan and even India having nukes !

01 March, 2009 EXPORT ROUTES DRUGS AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN ARABIAN SEA

05 March, 2009 THE LAHORE ATTACK-You Reap What You Sow-USA SHOULD LEARN FROM HISTORY THE LAHORE ATTACK-You Reap What You Sow-USA SHOULD LEARN FROM HISTORY AGHA AMIN

The Lahore attack is the turning of the wheel full 360 degrees. Attacking civilians and policemen in urban areas was perfected by the tinpot Pakistani Zia junta with dirty US and Saudi aid in Afghanistan in 1978-92. In this period :-1-More than 10,000 Afghan policemen known as Sarandoy were killed by so called Mujahids trained in Pakistan by the then Pakistani state.Most were on duty in cities and were simple patriotic Afghans.As good or bad as policemen anywhere in the world. 2-Civilian targets like Macroyan apartments in Kabul and Karte Char were attacked by Pakistan trained so called Mujahideen and families of various Afghan officials were killed. 3-Even student cafeteria of Kabul University was targeted. All this continued continuously for 14 years with full US and Saudi blessings. Now ironically the USA is in a position far worse than the USSR was in 1979-88. Ironically now the same Pakistani government which was the base of all operations against Afghanistans de facto leftist government in order to get US dollars from USA and Saudi Arabia is now supporting US occupation of Afghanistan to get US dollars.So this proves that there was no Jihad.It was just dirty mercenary work for dollars. The Lahore incident has to be viewed as a logical continuation of this process. In history nothing happens at random.

The war that destroyed the only Pashtun leftist state in the world is now being fought in non Pashtun areas. The Lahore attack is one such small incident. Many thousand Afghans were killed by paid agents in 1978-92 and remain un sung and unmourned.While death of 6 policemen in Lahore seems to be shocking.Were Afghan or Pashtun lives cheaper. Food for thought.

06 March, 2009 THREE GREAT TRANSMISSION LINES FOR WHICH WE DID SURVEYS IN AFGHANISTAN

24 March, 2009 COMMENTS ON DE BORCHGRAVE'S GEOPOLITICAL PSYCHIATRY IN BOLD BLACK http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/23/geopolitical-psychiatry/

DE BORCHGRAVE: Geopolitical psychiatry

Arnaud de Borchgrave Monday, March 23, 2009

COMMENTARY: Few know more about Afghanistan than Marin Strmecki. He has been involved with bloody events there for the last 20 years. He was a policy coordinator and special adviser on Afghanistan with the defense secretary and is a member of the Defense Policy Board, the defense secretary's think tank. Critically important, his recent congressional testimony was overlooked by mainstream media. Director of Programs at the Smith Richardson Foundation, a private foundation that supports public policy research and analysis, Mr. Strmecki sees Afghanistan as both opportunity and challenge at a time when experts begin seeking ways to exit from what a growing number see as a Vietnamlike quagmire. For Mr. Strmecki, the vast majority of 30 million Afghans oppose Taliban as they experienced their pseudo-religious excesses for four years in the late 1990s. Afghans have also known nothing but war for the last 30 years. But local communities cannot defend themselves from Taliban intimidation and attacks. ---------------------------------------------------------------------THIS IS GENERALLY RUE IN NON PASHTUN NORTH AND GENERALLY LESS TRUE IN THE SOUTH. Mr. Strmecki says reversing these negative trends will require:

(1) Rededicated U.S. leadership. -------------------------------------------------------------------------HOW TO DO THIS WHEN THE US RANK AND FILE LACKS THAT MOTIVATION WHICH WON CHANCELLORSVILLE AND CHATANOOGA.THE ALTERNATIVE IS BETTER STRATEGY,DIVIDE AND RULE,MAKE THE OTHERS DO THIS DIRTY JOB.KEY ELEMENT IS US MONEY AND US MATERIAL AID WHERE IT MATTERS. (2) Greater resources, including more troops. ---------------------------------------------------WHAT WOULD BE PROPOSED CENTRE OF GRAVITY.GUERRILLA WAR HAS NO CENTRE OF GRAVITY OTHER THAN THE STATES WHERE STATES AND NON STATE ACTORS HARBOUR THE GUERRILLAS. (3) Improved strategy and tactics. ------------------------------------------------------------WHAT WOULD THIS BE.ITS A BIG BRUSH SWEEP IN THE DARK?

(4) Geopolitical therapy for Pakistani generals who hedge their bets with Taliban out of fear the Vietnam syndrome may return and collapse the U.S. commitment. THE PAKISTANI ARMY THANKS TO US POLICIES IS ALREADY BADLY INTERNALLY DIVIDED.

None of this will be possible until Pakistan has eliminated Taliban's safe havens in FATA (the Federal Administered Tribal Areas). So the focus of U.S. policy should be to defeat a real and growing threat arising from a set of violent extremist groups based in Pakistan's tribal areas and their supporters in Pakistan. This also means "strengthening elements in Pakistan opposed to extremism and finding ways

progressively to narrow the areas in Pakistan in which the extremists can operate until these organizations have in effect been smothered." ----------------------------------------------------------THIS WOULD PAVE THE WAY FoR DIVISION OF PAKISTAN INTO A PASHTUN AND NON PASHTUN STATE AND START BALKANISTION OF PAKISTAN , A GREAT DANGER IN TURN.

A key task, Mr. Strmecki adds, is "to induce elements of the Pakistani government that have historic ties to the Taliban and other groups to make a strategic choice to cooperate fully in eliminating extremist sanctuaries." Both President Pervez Musharraf, a military dictator, and his successor Asif Zardari, who now is trying to play by democratic rules, pledged to do just that. ------------------------------------ALREADY THE ARMY HAS FAILED TO DO THIS AND THE NEXT PHASE WHICH IS MORE DANGEROUS I.E SPILLING OF TALIBS INTO NON PASHTUN AREAS HAS NOW COMMENCED. Pakistan, "a major non-NATO ally" of the United States and one of the world's eight nuclear powers, has been unable to cope with nationwide terrorist actions against the government, let alone wipe out the privileged sanctuaries enjoyed by the Afghan insurgency in the border tribal areas. Taliban guerrillas have grown steadily stronger since late 2005. At the same time, a corrupt Karzai government has lost popular support. ------------------------------THE PRESENCE OF US AND NATO TROOPS IN THE AREA IS THE GREATEST STIMULUS TO JIHAD.THIS PRESENCE SHOULD BE REDUCED.THE USA WILL HAVE TO INCORPORATE RUSSIA,IRAN,INDIA AND CHINA AND OFF COURSE PAKISTAN IN THE OVERALL

ARRANGEMENT.

Violent extremists operating out of Pakistan and eroding Afghan legitimacy at home produced today's Pentagon view that we are losing by not winning. VICTORY IN GUERRILLA WARFARE IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE OF MIND. Mr. Strmecki believes this grave situation can be reversed even though former Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell heard from a Pakistani general that the Pakistani military was supporting Taliban. A subsequent U.S. intelligence report said Pakistan "regularly gave the Taliban 'weapons and support to go into Afghanistan to attack Afghan and coalition forces.' " -----------------------------------------IF THIS IS SO US POLICY IS FAILING.IN ANY CASE THE USA NEEDS TO HONESTLY REFLECT,HOW MANY WEAPONS ARE COMING TNTO AFGHANISTAN FROM CENTRAL ASIA,IRAN AND CHINA APART FROM PAKISTAN ? "The starting point in trying to change [the alleged] orientation of [elements in Pakistan's military and intelligence establishment] is to understand the reasons for their actions. Mr. Strmecki says there are five: (1) Fear that Pakistan's regional rivals - particularly India - will secure undue influence in the Afghan government. Among Pakistani complaints are President Karzai's close ties to India and accusations that anti-Pakistani intelligence and political activities are orchestrated from Indian consulates and road building companies in eastern and southern Afghanistan. --------------------------------------------------------

THE INDIANS ARE IMPORTANT PLAYERS IN AFGHANISTAN.SOONER OR LATER THEY WILL MILITARILY ENTER THE SCENE. IT IS NO SECRET THAT TALIBAN GOVERNMENT BEFORE 2001 WAS RUN BY PAKISTANS ISI.HOWEVER SINCE 2001 THE TALIBAN HAVE BECOME MORE AUTONOMOUS AND HAVE MANY SECRET STATE BACKERS. (2) A belief the United States, as well as NATO, lacks staying power and will abandon Afghanistan. This, in turn, will lead to the failure of the Karzai government and a reprise of the proxy competition among regional rivals of the 1990s. Ergo, now's the time to field proxy forces to gain positional advantage in the fight to come. ------------------------------------------AT SOME STAGE THE USA WILL LEAVE AFGHANISTAN HOWEVER IT CAN ALWAYS RETAIN SOME 5 TO 10 KEY BASES FOR NEXT 200 YEARS.THIS MAY BE NECESSARY TO CONVINCE ALL THAT USA IS HERE TO STAY.

(3) Fear that a successful Afghanistan will exert a dangerous political appeal to ethnic Pashtuns who live in Pakistan. The unresolved legal status of the Durand Line (that marks the frontier) and the history of tensions with Afghanistan over the Pushtunistan issue exacerbate this concern. --------------------------------THE DIVISION OF AFGHANISTAN ON ETHNIC LINES IS NOT FAR AWAY IN ANY CASE. (4) The strategic aspiration of some in Islamabad to project Pakistani influence into Central Asia through Afghanistan. ------------------------------------

AN OLD THEORY WITH NO RELEVANCE TO GROUND REALITIES.THE CENTRAL ASIANS WILL REMAIN A RUSSIAN COLONY.THE RUSSIANS HAVE TAUGHT THEOR FEMALES GOOD EUROPEAN LOVE MAKING TECHNIQUES.

(5) The belief that the United States will only remain engaged with Pakistan - and provide military and economic assistance - if security threats draw us into the region. This leads to the view that Pakistan's interests lie in acting as a "strategic rentier state, perpetuating a degree of insecurity in order to be paid to reduce it." ----------------------------TO SOME EXTENT TRUE BUT NOT WHOLLY.THE PAKISTAN ARMY DISINTEGRATES AND PAKISTAN IS FINISHED.THE USA IS DEALING WITH AN ARMY WITH A STATE AND NOT VICE VERSA.

It would seem Pakistan, elevated to "major non-NATO ally" by President Bush, needs a geopolitical psychiatrist, a role now assigned to Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke. Meanwhile, Mr. Strmecki says a key objective should be to draw out from Pakistani military and intelligence leaders what are their strategic concerns and to advance discussion between the two sides about how these might be addressed in a manner consistent with a strong and stable Afghanistan. His five-part psychotherapy: ---------------------------------------------------NOT MUCH SHOULD BE EXEPECTED FROM HOLBROOK.HE IS A MEAN MORTAL.

(1) Create a system of red lines governing the activities in Afghanistan of all regional powers, including both Pakistan and India, to allay concerns that one rival is gaining unilateral advantage and

to provide a transparent system for monitoring compliance. REASONABLE IDEA BUT REQUIRES A KISSINGER.A HILARY OR HOLBROOK CANT DO IT. (2) Craft credible commitments on the part of the United States to remain the principal external power engaged in state-building in Afghanistan, particularly regarding security institutions, and to take Pakistani security concerns into account in formulating its policies. THEORETICALLY NEAT BUT UTOPIAN HOPE.FROM WHAT I KNOW OF QUALITY OF US DECISION MAKING. (3) Mediate discussions between Afghan and Pakistani leaders to arrive at a common understanding of the border regime and use relations between the Pushtun communities in both countries to foster constructive social and economic ties. A UTOPIAN IDEAL STRAIGHT FROM THOMAS MOORES UTOPIA (4) Make commitments to plan, jointly with Kabul and Islamabad and to finance the construction of the infrastructure to connect Central Asia through Afghanistan and Pakistan, thus enabling expansion of trade, cultural and political ties. THE RUSSIANS WILL NEVER ALLOW IT .

(5) Develop a major package - on the order of U.S. assistance to Egypt - to support the economic and social development in Pakistan, including support to improve the educational system, to stimulate growth of private enterprise - all to demonstrate the U.S. values a long-term relationship with Pakistan for its own sake, not just as a tactical necessity in the war on terror.

---------------------------------------------ALL EGYPT HAS DONE IS PRODUCE GOOD PROSTITUTES AND EGYPT REMAINS A BORDER LINE AL QAEDA AND CHAOS CASE. -----------------------------------------------------Geopolitical psychiatry is not America's diplomatic strong suit.

ALL I CAN DO IS ONCE AGAIN QUOTE US SECOND SECRETARY DOUG SCHERERS CONCLUSION ON US DECISION MAKERS " A BUNCH OF WET PUSSIES HIDING BEHIND E MAILS" Arnaud de Borchgrave, is editor at large for The Washington Times and for United Press International. 27 March, 2009 DOES THE FUTURE BELONG TO THE SNIPER ?

“In early April 2004, in Ramadi Iraq, a Muslim sniper wiped out a squad of United States Marines using a Sovietdesigned Draganov SVD sniper rifle: "12 shots, 12 kills," a Marine officer reported. The marksmanship indicated either imported jihadist talent or a member of the old regime's military elite. Twelve dead is too many. The marines panicked! Muslim snipers are killing more and more American troops? Bravo Company's Corporal Romulo Jimenez, age 21 from Bellington, West Virginia died because of poor training. On Wednesday, Nov. 10, around 2 p.m., Corporal Jimenez was shot in the neck by a Muslim sniper as he advanced with his platoon through the northern end of Fallujah, just near the green-domed Muhammadia Mosque. He died instantly. Where are the marine’s counter snipers? The US Marines were deployed to the Middle East in 2003-2005. According to the marines, marine snipers include some of the most ineffective snipers ever fielded by the military of a major world power. The evidence? Wednesday, August 3, 2005, six U.S. Marine snipers were ambushed and killed by terrorists. Five of the marine snipers died Monday during a Muslim attack on their patrol outside Haditha, according to a Marine Corps news release. The body of the sixth marine sniper was discovered later a few miles away. All were killed by small-arms fire, the Marines said. How were they killed? By 22 caliber sniper rifles or a Draganov SVD sniper rifle? “

EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK " COMBAT SNIPERS" The USA in Afghanistan-A Long Term Strategic View Published the Nation Lahore 12 May 2009 http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/12May-2009/USA-in-Afghanistan-a-longterm-strategic-view

USA in Afghanistan: a long-term strategic view Published: May 12, 2009 AGHA H. AMIN While it is still debatable that 9/11 was a deliberate conspiracy to justify a US occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq or an act of Al-Qaeda, the United States of America inherited a historical situation in shape of 9/11 and made use of it to justify launching of a major Neo Operation Barbarossa to occupy the fertile east! This article is based on my experiences of 13 years service in the army, 34 years of study of military history including three stints as editor of three journals in Afghanistan and Pakistan and three years of continuous and many more years of interrupted stay in Afghanistan. During the course of my last continuous stay in Afghanistan from 2004 till 2008 I worked as sub contractor with many donor agencies and repeatedly came into contact with many NATO and US military officials. My projects were located in the heart of Taliban country i.e. Kandahar, Ghazni, Helmand, Farah, Zabul and Kunar. With the stated experience my perceptions of Afghanistan may be different in finer aspects from many other views, which may be outwardly neat and logical but lack the solid conviction

and finesse stemming out of an exhaustive study of military history and an on ground experience not depending on what you may read or hear from the print or the live media. There is one similarity in US and USSR invasion of Afghanistan. Both happened because of an apparently third party action, which were used by policy makers in both countries to justify an attack. Here the similarity ends. The USSR entered Afghanistan in a bipolar world where major powers decided to oppose the USSR tooth and nail and with equal and subsequently greater might. The USA entered Afghanistan in a unipolar world when no major power supported anti-US insurgents. Further the USA entered Afghanistan with long-term strategic plans while the USSR entered Afghanistan to support a leftist regime with whom it had a treaty of cooperation. The USSR did not enlarge its offensive after Afghanistan but the USA is continuously enlarging its offensive with the major Phase Two being the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the ongoing 2007-09 mysterious upsurge in Pakistan. Mysterious, because of what I saw in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2008 and till to date. The USA was lucky to have in Pakistan on the eve of its arrival a military tin pot dictator who was ready to sell his soul to even the devil to preserve his illegitimately won seat of power. In retrospect as I analyse now, the US-Afghan war followed the following distinct phases:An initial arm-twisting manoeuvre of Pakistan's illegitimate military regime to secure ground, aerial and logistic passage. This happened from October 2001 and continues till to date. Pressurising the illegitimate Pakistani military regime into launching operation in Waziristan when there was no insurgency in Waziristan from 2002 till 2006, thus destabilising a most strategically sensitive region of Pakistan and internally dividing Pakistan. Strengthening US military presence in Afghanistan in terms of constructing permanent air bases for possible future long-term use to dominate the region including Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, Chinese Singkiang and India. Creation of an intelligence operation base from where third party penetration operations could be mounted to infiltrate any extremist or ethnic group in conflict with its parent country's federal government. The prime immediate target being Pakistan, while Iran, China, Central

Asian States may possibly be later phase targets. This phase started from November 2001 and continues till to date. Forcing the illegitimate Musharraf military regime to mount another military operation in Mohmand and Bajaur, thus destabilising another strategically sensitive region of Pakistan and to discredit the Pakistani armed forces. This started in 2005 and continues till to date. A dispassionate reader may form his own conclusions but I have the following observations: At no stage from 2001 till to date did the US or NATO forces mount any major military operation inside Afghanistan against Taliban. Actually the force ratios of US and NATO forces does not allow this in any case. All major US Army and USAID and NATO construction contracts were sub contracted at third and fourth tiers to contractors who were Taliban after sunset and contractors after sunrise. All this happened with US military officials in full knowledge. While major Taliban infiltration from Pakistan to Afghanistan takes place in the 1400km tract in between Gomal River and Chaghai Hills the US government at no stage pressurised the Pakistani illegitimate military regime of Musharraf to interdict this influx! All the US pressure on Pakistan was to take military action in Waziristan from where hardly 10 percent of influx into Afghanistan was taking place! Later the US pressure also expanded to include Bajaur and Mohmand who have a very short less than 300km border with Pakistan. Thus while major Taliban attacks were taking place on US and NATO forces in Helmand, Kandahar and Zabul who have no border with Waziristan, all along the US government was pressurising the Pakistani government to attack the Taliban in Waziristan which accounts for less than 5 percent damage to any US or NATO forces in Afghanistan in terms of length of border contiguous with provinces where maximum US and NATO casualties took place! Till 2007 I could travel from Kabul on one end to Herat on the far end via Kandahar in a private car without any weapon safely. But not after 2007. Suddenly everything changed and USA and NATO forces took no action from 2007 till to date to secure this area! Despite the fact that no major US casualties took place in Khost and Paktika provinces adjacent to Wazisristan and Kunar and Nangarahar provinces adjacent to Khyber Agency, Bajaur and Mohmand and Dir/Swat the USA spent a fortune on bases and infrastructure

building in these provinces. Construction profits were made by the very tribes fighting the Pakistan Army in Waziristan, Khyber, Bajaur and Mohmand. No container taking supplies to NATO at the height of Taliban operations in Afghanistan was attacked in any area of Pakistan in between 2001 and 2008 but in 2008 mysterious attacks started! The deductions that can be drawn from the above are: The USA did not come to Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban. The USA by design destabilised Waziristan, Khyber, Bajaur and Mohmand to create a war-like situation to justify international action to denuclearise Pakistan. Pakistan needs to drastically revise its foreign policy making a clean break with USA and NATO and making peace with India and an alliance with Russia, China and Iran while preserving its nuclear deterrent. It is worthwhile quoting Henry Kissinger who said: It is one thing to have the USA as an enemy but to its friend is deadly! The USA is part of Pakistan's problems. Friendship with the United States of America is not the solution. But who will bell the cat. Who will make the resolute decision? No peace in sight until Pakistan's leaders and top military brass stop sleeping with the devil! The writer is a freelance columnist based in Kabul, Afghanistan

20 May, 2009 Pashtuns and ideological bugs pashtuns and ideological bugs agha h amin

there is nothing new in this . swat has seen Ambeyla (Bunner) expedition of 1863 in which the brits suffered maximum casualties in frontier history .launched against hindustani fanatics of syed ahmed shahid( parallel of modern al qaeda/talibs) , malakand expedition of 1890s etc. the pashtuns have a strong religious bug which if triggered gets very explosive. pashtun society is a struggle of class all along as any other.the imperialists used the khans against the mullah starting from mughals sikhs brits pakis but the american saudi dirty war made the priest the supremo.for destroying the leftist khalqi a more dangerous demon was created. traditionally the mughals used pashtuns and the same was done by the pakistani state. now its going out of control.the time is not far when a pashtun heavy movement may dominate the region. the pashtun armed with any ideology is formidable.may it be khalqi talib or any damn thing.

21 May, 2009 If Pakistan is Balkanised Punjab :-A Punjabi state with a strong army and nuclear weapons and a good confederal relation with a sindhi state.this Punjabi state would retain the strategic Sui gas fields with a strong force and a changed demography of balochistan with the areas Bellpat Naseerabad resettled with Punjabi farmers. the state would have good relations with the Pashtun state and Sindh.

Pashtuns:-The tribal pashtuns are the real force of pashtuns.the settled area pashtuns were more punjabised or i should say urbanised.however as the tribals and settled area pashtuns interact politically they will become a formidable force. the pashtuns may dominate a large part of afghanistan and pakistan in next ten years. the pashtuns will use the Indus Highway to transit to Karachi. Sindh:-A Sindhi state with a capital at Hyderabad and good relations with Punjab. Balochistan:-A Baloch state with capital at Khuzdar stripped of many mineral areas .A loose confederation of Sardars of various regions.A semi independent maritime region in south with the Chinese base at Gwadar. Northern Areas:-A peaceful state dependent on Chinese aid. Kashmir:-A peaceful state with close political and military ties with Punjab .

one may see :-1- a pashtun dominance of parts of pakistan.with 2 million displaced pashtuns,karachi will be the ideal choice,demography will change and pashtuns would dominate karachi in a worst case scenario and rule karachi in a best case scenario. 2-the pashtuns and the baloch and the might be fighting soon.here again the pashtuns because of numbers and unity will emerge victorious.quetta will be a pashtun city and the pashtuns would expand south to control the quetta khuzdar karachi highway.already whole balochistan has an organised pashtun presence in shape of the FC scouts which is 100 % pashtun. traditionally the pashtun expansion areas would be south and east.central asia has a strong russian father.main dangers to pashtun expansion are iranians and the pakistani extablishment. Agha Amin US Plan to Destabilise Pakistan http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/05/us-plan-to-destabilise-anddenuclearise.html

22 May, 2009 US PLAN TO DESTABILISE AND DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN FROM TINPOT MUSHARRAF TO 2009 IN STRATEGY EVERYTHING MOVES VERY SLOWLY SO THE GREATNESS OF A GENERAL OR A STATESMAN IS TO SEE THESE SLOW BUT CERTAIN MOVEMENTS.IT HAS BEEN MY STRATEGIC CONVICTION SINCE 2001 THAT USA CAME TO AFGHANISTAN TO DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN AND TO START A PHASE TWO AND THREE AGAINST CHINA AND RUSSIA.THESE IDEAS WERE ADVANCED IN MY ARTCLES IN PRAVDA,NATION,ORBAT.COM ETC SINCE 2001.UNFORTUNATELY PAKISTAN WAS BETRAYED FROM INSIDE BY TINPOT MUSHARRAF.

Posted by Agha H Amin at 1:08 AM

US strategic plan Published: Daily Nation Lahore May 28, 2009 A.H. Amin

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/28-May2009/US-strategic-plan Every movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war Carl Von Clausewitz everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly. The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements. The USA inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11.At this point in time it was not making history if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al Qaeda for which so far the USA has failed to furnish any solid evidence. After 9/11 when the USA attacked Afghanistan ,US leaders and key military commanders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plan were the elimination of Al Qaeda. The unstated objective was the de-nuclearisation of Pakistan. This scribe has continuously held this position held consistently in articles published in Nation from September 2001,all through 2002,2003,2004,2005 and till 2009. The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases: * An initial manoeuvre occupying Afghanistan in 2001. * Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. Some military bases like Dasht I Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised. Even in case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government owned Shaw Inc and the CIA proxy operated Dyncorps Corporation. Patriotic Afghans trained in USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA's dirty game in between 2001 and 2007.Similarly many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment. * Cultivating various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.

* Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the FATA tribes thus destabilising Pakistan's North West area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan's political and military nucleus is located. * Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies erupted in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Balochistan. * Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies. Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grace to Pakistan. These may be assessed as following :-* US military buildup in Afghanistan and launching of an offensive against Taliban with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan. * Simultaneously pressurising the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus Pakistan Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistans NWFP and Balochistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement. * Since 2001 the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan's strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009 it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation. * The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan's non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan's strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan. Once this type of attack is done the USA with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go the UN and manoeuvre an international resolution demanding denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan's government may capitulate. * Once Pakistan is de-nuclearisaed the USA would encourage Pakistan's Balkanisation into a Baloch US satellite , a city state of MQM in Karachi, a Pakhtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential , kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic which is a US lackey unless China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area. What is the answer to this:

* An immediate clean break with USA/NATO and closing all NATO/US supply lines to Afghanistan. * Mining and barbed wiring the Afghan Pakistan Border. * Allowing the FATA agencies to import goods for Afghanistan duty free and scrapping the old Afghan Transit Trade Accord thus economically boosting the FATA. * A military alliance with China with a Chinese Naval base at Gwadar. * A rapprochement with Russia and offering the Russians free port facilities at Gwadar. * Creation of a maritime province in Gwadar and Lasbela districts insulating these areas from the Baloch Sardars on payroll of US intelligence. * Creation of a Pashtun Province in the Pashtun districts of Balochistan with Quetta as its capital. * Cancelling all mineral concessions to all European/Australian/American companies in Balochistan and grant all mineral concessions to Chinese companies. Everything is not inevitable in history. The ablest navigators can defeat the worst sea storms. Pakistan needs strategic and political vision. It may be necessary to have a military government to do all this in case the civilians prove inept.

01 June, 2009 Pakistan-Short Strategic summing up Pakistan-Short Strategic summing up

Agha H Amin

A state created by manipulation of religion for egoistic purposes by secular leaders with non secular slogans.These include all from Syed Ahmad to all leaders to date . The prime movers of the idea were Hindustani Muslims from UP who fathered the idea of Muslim separatism.Francis Robinsons classic book Muslim Separatism in UP brilliantly sums it up.The motivation was guarading the unfair position of a minority which could not compete with the majority. The Punjabi and Sindhi feudals major objective was retaining their unfair monopoly while removing a Hindu and Sikh minority who presented a threat to their unfair domination. The middle classes wanted jobs they could not get because of the tough competition of Hindus and Sikhs.

When the country was created,the Pashtuns were mobilised repeatedly in name of religion and money to fight in Kashmir and later in Afghanistan and Kashmir all along. The majority Bengali Muslims were sidelined and constitutionally prevented from being the politically dominant class.At last they were forced to seek help from the Hindus they actually hated to save their political identity in 1971. Everything was rthnically manipulated to an extent that when a Punjabi element attacked a Sindi Chief Justice there was no outrage.There was no Aitizaz Ahsan ! While when a Punjabi Chief Justice was sacked ,this was a case of attack on civil society. While religion was manipulated and used to perpetrate outrages in Afghanistan and Kashmir this was good.But when the same trend came to Waziristan and Swat it was bad.

Small crooks were hanged and killed in poiice encounters and hanged and big crooks became Pakistans presidents and prime minister and chief ministers. Finally the forces of religion and extremism which the clever feudals,generals and middle class used to get personal benefits is out of control. One may assess the future as following:-1-A Punjabi army dominated by rain irrigated area kinships with some junior pashtun khattak ,yusufzai and urdu speaking junior partners. 2-A resurgent Pashtun Islamist movement. 3-Separatist movements in Sindh and Balochistan with US and Indian support. 4-Two decade chaos till there is a major change. Major change may mean Balkanistion,denuclearisation and a major war fought in low intensity shades.

A state based on manipulation of religion for personal ends cannot endure. One major factor in the survival of Muslim elites pre 1947 was collaboration with the British and post 1947 collaboration with USA. The US factor is now working against the Pakistani elite. The choices are Islamisation,Balkanisation or total chaos.Denuclearisation is the prelude to all the three.All this may take from two to twenty years.

12 June, 2009 Pakistan Crisis of 2009 is logical Pakistan Crisis of 2009 is logical Ideology,Ethnicity,Opportunism and substance-Indo Pak Muslim History Summed up Agha H Amin The history of Indo Pak Muslims is a story of manipulation of the

populace by a select elite to achieve their narrow class interests. The manipulation started right after 1857 and continued right till 2001 when the manipulated scenario,till then a controlled scenario became an uncontrolled scenario with no predictability. All that happened had a logic if one tries to analyse dispassionately.There was no conspiracy of substance although foreign elements made and continue to make ample use of the situation that they saw. The Indo Pak Muslims were saved by the English East India Company in 1803 when General Lake captured Maratha held Delhi and in 1849 when General Hugh Gough captured Sikh held Punjab and parts of NWFP. There were two reactions.The elite and a class which became the elite collaborated with the British right from 1857 till 2001.One class of rebels fought the British and were forced to leave India or were incarcerated or fought the British with bombs and bullets.While the

present Pakistani FATA was the heartland of this resistance,many educated classes specially the Bengali Hindus like Rash Behari Bose and the Hindustani Muslims like Sayyad Ahmad Shahid also produced great rebels. The army was the foremost collaborator of the British.It later found American masters after 1947.The political elite of the Muslims was also 99 % collaborators and the tradition continues to date. From 1979 to 1992 the the then Pakistani state led by the usurper Zia by design participated in the destruction of Afghanistan.What happened in Afghanistan in this period was far worse than what is happening in Pakistan now.One could not travel from any major city to another or from any village to a city without being attacked.All infrastructure was destroyed.All institutions were destroyed.All in name of Jihad ! When Musharraf took the 9/11 u turn the whole hypocrisy of the Muslim

political and military elite from 1857 till 2001 became stark naked.The elite both political and military lost all credibility. What is happening now in Pakistan is a result of this loss of credibility. All blasts , all acts of terror , however outwardly senseless,have a logic ! The logic of outrage against political and military opportunism. If Kabul and Herat were destroyed in name of an ideological farce,then why not Islamabad and Karachi. The sins of Muslim elite for which they must pay now:-1-Collaboration with British in 1857. 2-Collaboration with British against Ottoman Turkey in 1914-18. 3-Collaboration with British in all expeditions launched against tribal Pashtuns from 1849 till 1947. 4-The 1947 mass genocide and transfer of population. 5-All military actions in Balochistan and Bengal from 1948 till 2001. 6-The destruction of Afghanistan in name of Jihad from 1978 till 2001 so that a bastard child military regime could survive. 7-Galvanising and sacrifing thousands of Muslims in Kashmir in name of Jihad from 1947 till 2001 . 8-Imposing civil war on Afghanistan by design from 1992 till 2001. All that happens in history has a logic.What is happening in Pakistan has a logic.But only if one tries to understand it.One harvests what one reaps.

16 June, 2009 Waziristan Operation is a Faux Pas-A.H Amin Waziristan Operation is a Faux Pas-A.H Amin A.H Amin 17 June 2009 There is too much bragging and boasting about Waziristan being occupied and pacified by the Pakistani state. The notion or belief is utopian , Quixotic and oversimplistic. The Pashtuns politically speaking were kept disunited and weak by all governments that ruled this part of the world from 1526 till to date.The only five exceptions were as following :--1-Overthrow of the Mughals by Sher Shah Suri in 1540.This period lasted till 1555. 2-The epic Ghilzai Rebellion of Mirwais Hotak and his successors against the hated Persians in 1709,when the Pashtuns liberated Afghanistan and overran Iran.This lasted from 1709 to 1729. 3-The Golden period of the Durranis which lasted from 1747 till 1978. 4-The radical Pashtun dominated leftist period which lasted from 1978 till 1992. 5-The ongoing Pashtun rebellion in Pakistan and Afghanistan from 2001 till to date. I have not included the Taliban period from 1996 till 2001 because Taliban were Pakistani stooges.However after 2001 when the Musharraf military junta of Pakistan stabbed Taliban in the back the Taliban were

transformed from puppets into true freedom fighters. Traditionally the Pashtuns were used as cannon fodder by all Muslim rulers of this region from around 1000 AD till 2001 , barring the above five periods. The Turks and others used them from around 994 till 1451 as cannon fodder. The Mughals used the Pashtuns from 1526 to around 1657.However after 1657 the Mughal Pashtun relations deteriorated and this remained a constant factor till the demise of the Mughals from the Pashtun areas till 1739. The Pakistani state adopted a conciliatory attitude towards the Pashuns under Mr Jinnah who withdrew the army from the tribal areas in 1947.The Pashtuns were manipulated and used as warriors in the Kashmir war of 1947-48. In the Afghan war of 1978-1992 and the civil war of 1992-2001 again the Pakistani state successfully used Pashtuns against Pashtuns as well as in Indian occupied Kashmir.Ironically the Pashtuns were duped into destroying the only Pashtun dominated state in the world in 1978-1992 and from 1992 till 2001.Simultaneously the Pashtuns were used as cheap cannon fodder in Indian occupied Kashmir. 2001 was the watershed in Pashtun as well as Muslim history. General Musharraf the illegitimate tinpot Pakistani dictator drove three nails in Pakistans coffin when he :-1-Stabbed the Pashtun Taliban in the back by agreeing,albeit under coercion and greed to be a US vassal in October 2001.The resultant US occupation of Afghanistan and Pakistani states collaboration totally destroyed the credibility of the Pakistani state in Pashtun eyes.It is this writ of the government which was destroyed in 2001,so why talk about writ of Pakistani government anywhere after 9/11.Morally Pakistani state

lost all its legitimacy after 9/11 u turn of tinpot Musharraf. 2-Made rapproachment with India over Kashmir in 2001-2 thus halting Pashtun infiltration in Indian occupied Kashmir.Many hundred thousand highly trained Pashtuns were left free to channelise their urges for thrill and action as soldiers of Allah in gthe FATA and Afghanistan. 3-Launching the Pakistan Army without provocation into Waziristan in 2003 and later in Bajaur,Mohmand etc. Such was the hatred against Pakistan as a result of these actions that in 2005,when there was a riot in Jalalabad,while Indian and Pakistani consulates were close to each other,the Pakistani consulate was attacked and the Indian consulate remained untouched. The Pashtuns at the intellectual level realised that they had been made fools since 1947.All along from 1978 till to date major infrastructure as well as institutions were damaged in Pashtun populated areas.The main losers in the US occupation of Afghanistan were Pashtuns. Thus the advent of characters like Nek Mohammad and Baitullah Mehsud.The leftist Khalqi element in Afghans also originate from Paktiya and Paktika adjacent to the tribal areas.These Khalqis grew beards over the passage of times while trimming their moustaches.These also joined hands with their tribal brothers.Russian aid if any came via these Khalqis. Baitullah Mahsud whether aided or not aided by USA or India or Russia is an indigenous product.He is unique because he is intellectually superior to all Pashtuns in the region,in realising that the Pashtuns were manipulated by the Pakistani establishment from 1947 till 2001.When he attacked the Punjab province he was vindicating the destruction meted out to Afghanistan ,Kabul,Kandahar and FATA from 1978 till to date. Keeping in context this background the Waziristan operation will not succeed:-1-The terrain in Waziristan is far more difficult than Swat.Waziristan

because of the terrain is a logisticians nightmare. 2-Long border with Afghanistan allows the tribal insurgents to withdraw into Afghanistan at will.On Afghan side there is hardly any border force to stop them and if there is any,their hearts are with the insurgents. 3-Population on both sides of border belongs to the same tribes.Thus sanctuary is not an issue. 4-The issue of foreign support is also in favour of tribesmen since India and Russia thanks to Afghanistan and Kashmir have a debt to settle. In brief:-1-The Pashtuns and Punjabis were divided because a non Punjabi Musharraf blundered criminally,thus alienating the Pashtuns.No fault of the Punjabis. 2-The backbone of Pakistan was Pashtun -Punjabi cooperation.But this ended in 2001 because of Musharrafs criminal policies of adventurism and opportunism.The people of Punjab have no enmity with Pashtuns but Pashtuns were alienated with Punjab because of criminally opportunistic policies of a non Punjabi opportunist par excellence known as Pervez Musharraf and as Pervez Besharaf in Afghanistan. 3-Instead of launching the army into Waziristan the Pakistani state needs to politically engage the Pashtuns.Give incentives.Rebuild infrastructure.Announce a visa free regime for Pakistan and Afghanistan.Declare the tribal areas duty free zones and allow the tribals to import and export for Afghanistan. Nothing in history is inevitable.If Pakistan is to be preserved the Punjabis and Pashtuns have to be friends.Its time that mistakes of the criminally opportunistic Musharraf are not repeated.

30 June, 2009 Some thoughts on Insurgency Warfare in Afghanistan Some thoughts on Insurgency Warfare in Afghanistan A.H Amin

The US invasion of Afghanistan under the umbrella of a UN resolution as part of an international invasion force was a watershed in the history of modern warfare.While the 1990 Gulf war was a limited conventional war followed by a quick withdrawal the US invasion of Afghanistan was a far more complicated affair. As an ex officer of the Pakistan Army from 1981 to 1993 and as a civilian contractor from 1993 till to date following are my observations about the US counter insurgency operations in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance The main US partner Northern Alliance was essentially a Russian creation.From 1986 the Soviet Afghan intelligence had started concluding secret agreement known as protocolas with various Afghan Mujahideen groups.Thus by 1989 when the Soviets withdrew some 60 % of Mujahideen groups had some sort of protocol with the Afghan leftist government.This meant that Mujahids were overt recipients of US aid and covert recipients of some Soviet aid or beneficiaries of a mutually concluded secret ceasefire.Also then unknown to many the Soviets had decided in principle to accept a take over of Kabul by parties which later came to be known as Northern Alliance keeping in view the fact that they were considered more moderate and politically acceptable.Thus Kabul was literally handed over to the Jamiat of Ahmad Shah Masud.Most leftist Parchamis and some Khalqis switched over their loyalty and became Mujahids overnight.Later the same party was regrouped as what we now know as the Northern Alliance.The USA realised that Massoud was their best bet but politically the Russians

were thev winners.Thus Russia became the main supporter of the Northern Alliance while the USA also gave some lollipops to Massoud.Politically Russians were paramount. Interestingly most Khalqis who were Pashtuns mostly joined Hekmatyars Hizbe Islami and later the more famous or notorious Taliban.Thus both the Northern Alliance and the Taliban had a Russian connection. The Taliban The Taliban who emeged in 1994 and captured Kabul in 1996 were a Pashtun heavy party whose midwife was Pakistans ISI.This test tube baby of the ISI ironically became more and more independent and by 2001 was asserting itself.The US invasion of 2001 and the Pakistani turn around , known as betrayal in Taliban circles transformed the Taliban from a foreign sponsored party into a more indigenous Afghan political entity. After 2001 by an irony of history the Taliban found many other regional partners like the Iranians,Russians,Gulf Arab states,Saudi Arabia and some assert even the Chinese.All this happened because all regional playsrs saw the Taliban as a force whose manipulation was in their particular national interest. Though officially the Pakistani military was now a US ally , some contact was maintained with Taliban tacitly,however the Pakistani turn around,did introduce a major loss of credibility for the Pakistani military in the eyes of the Taliban. No tangible military objective The US forces had no tangible military objectives.They were dispersed in east and south Afghanistan with a strong presence at Kabul,Bagram and Kandahar.Their numbers were so low that when the Taliban started resurging after the initial shock and awe of the US bombing offensive in 2002-3 there

was little US ground troop strength to counter them.While the initial US campaign had tangible objectives,after 2001 there were little tangible objectives.From 2002 the US developed a fixation with Waziristan as the centre of gravity of Al Qaeda little concrete objectives were achieved.The USA pressurised the Pakistan Army into a ground offensive in Waziristan and later in Bajaur,Mohmand etc however little was achieved other than more destabilisation of Pakistan and greater Taliban control of Afghanistan. Open Borders Afghanistans 90 % border is open with no border force of any minimum acceptable military effectiveness.Some border outposts exist but these are of symbolic value only.This makes infiltration of weapons and personnel an easy affair.As a result from 2004 particularly heavy influx of weapons and money started .By 2007 the Taliban became so strong that one could not travel from Kabul to Ghazni or from Kabul to Kandahar.While Waziristan was pounded by drones bo effort was made to seal the borders or to interdict inflow of weapons and men. US counter insurgency effectiveness The US force levels were so low that the US or NATO for that matter did not mount any major ground offensive to hitb the Taliban areas of strength in Helmand or Kandahar.While Waziristan was pounded Taliban infiltration continued un abated from Pakistani Balochistan.Since ground forces were less the US relied on aerial bombing which did not break the Talibans military effectiveness and killed many non combatants. An unwilling NATO NATO marked time less British,Dutch and to some extent French although more cosmetically.The Turks,Germans,Italians were the worst malingerers and dodgers.The puny British force at Camo Bastion was an apology of a counter insurgency force.The Canadians and Dutch although well

motivated were also crippled because of low fiorce levels. A fallacious belief that covert operations could destroy the Taliban/Al Qaeda Drone attacks,special operations cannot decide the outcome of an insurgency.They may have an effect but in Afghanistan and tribal areas a limited one. Afghanistan as Casablanca of the region Many regional powers established themselves in Afghanistan with their own agendas.These included Indians,Israelis,Russians,Chinese,French etc.The USA could not control or check their activities.This made the US military task a failure and also created many suspicions in Pakistan. Ambiguous position of Pakistan,Russia and Iran All these powers have their own interests and their role in the war has been ambiguous. Conclusion 1-The USA has to devise a strategy to seal the Afghan borders and create an effective border force in Afghanistan. 2-The USA has to devise a concrete strategy to reduce role of regional actors in Afghanistan. 3-While retaining key bases the USA has to build the Afghan national forces.This would be economical and cost effective. 4-At some stage the USA has to withdraw while retaining some key basis and make the Russians,Indians,Chinese and Pakistanis fight each other.With a US sword of Damocles at BAGRAM,JALALABAD,KANDAHAR,HERAT AND MAZAR the Taliban will think twice before embarking on any major adventure.

02 July, 2009 joy ride on taliban humvee in FATA-Ticket Nil

08 July, 2009 US OPERATION PUNY PIN PRICKS

THE ONGOING US OPERATIONS IN AFGHANISTAN ARE AT BEST A POLITICAL STUNT. KEEPING IN VIEW THE PUNY US FORCE RATIOS NOTHING WILL BE ACHIEVED. ONLY PRIVATE CONTRACTORS WILL MAKE MONEY CONSTRUCTION ACCOMODATION AND SUPPLYING US FORCES. THE MAIN LOSER WOULD BE THE US TAX PAYER. BUT WHO CARES.

14 July, 2009 NEW US STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND CAMP LEATHERNECK A.H AMIN JULY 2009 Camp Leatherneck is the new US imperial outpost in the so called war against terror in Afghanistan. Some experts think that Camp Leathernecks significance is strategic .This article is an analysis of the new US strategy in Afghanistan in the context of establishment of Camp Leatherneck, and its impact on the ongoing operations at the strategic, operational and tactical plane.Camp Leatherneck located near Khanishin in Helmand Province has been described by observers who visited it as following :-concrete blast walls and semi-cylinder sand-colored tents. Would house most of the 8000 marines being flown in to AFGHANISTAN. 443-acre secure facility. If placed end to end in the United States, the sand walls at Leatherneck and eight other sites being built for the troop influx in southern Afghanistan would stretch for a distance of 175 km (110 miles). The marines at Camp Leatherneck are also building a giant parking area for helicopters and airplanes by laying down a mat of metal alloy on the desert floor. With a length of 4,860 feet a width of 318 feet, the mat will be the second largest of its kind in the world and the biggest in a combat zone, said Marine Lieutenant Colonel David Jones, commander of the Marine Wing Support Squadron 371, based in Yuma, Arizona. The camp would house the 2ND Marine Expeditionary Brigade also known as Task Force Leatherneck.This would be a force of some 11 to 13 thousan troops including support troops.Actual fighting troops keeping in view the US teeth to tail ratio that I have seen in Afghanistan may be as low as 5 thousand to 6 thousand troops. While little information is available about ongoing operations in the area the following is an assessment based on an on ground stay in Afghanistan in the period 2004-2009. ANALYSIS

Personal Memories When I arrived in Afghanistan in early 2004 my first assignment was as sub contractor of a very famous US company Louis Burger.RDA whose General Manager I was , was an Afghan American NGO ,which had a contract of constructing some 5 clinics in Helmand,one being in Khanisihin which now houses Camp Leatherneck.I visited Khanishin in August 2004.

At that time it was an open drug market and there was no NATO or US forces in the area.Our movement was at the mercy of Taliban,who happened to be our sub contractors also.No American from Louis Burger visited this project at least till June 2005 when I resigned from RDA to establish my own company. My second exposure to the area came in September 2006 when I received a frantic call from

Rock Chlela a Lebanese from Pro Sima Intenational,a favourite sub contractor of US Army.Rock wanted to do an initial survey of the area from Nad I Ali to Camp Bastion and could find no Afghan or foreign sub contractor willing to do the survey.We did this short 22 km survey in two days.There were no NATO or Afghan forces in the area and I was lucky to get support of some old Afghan contacts of mine who I had helped in getting released in a drug trafficking case in Pakistani Balochistan back in 1983.These contacts for survival had now grown long beards and had become what many ,erroneously call Taliban.

Camp Bastion was a British camp established in the area.The Taliban contemptuously referred to them as contractor soldiers because of their being patrolling shy without overwhelming air support.In my survey I saw these Britishers only once and that too on the main Kandahar-Herat Road near Girishk early morning 0600 hours.Another British patrol that I met was relaxing on a ridge just next to their camp comprising of Fiji Gurkhas. (Fiji has an old Gurkha settlement).They were afraid when I approached them but became relaxed when I told them that I am a sub contractor. The third exposure to the area was when we got a contract for a drug trafficking survey from an international client in October 2006.The fourth exposure came when we were asked by Pro Sima International to make a bid for a border police battalion headquarters at Qala I Afzal in Nimroz in February-March 2007. My last major visit in the area was in 2007 when I had been invited by the US Army Center of Military History to a seminar in Fort Mc Nair dealing with role of non state actors in the ongoing low intensity war in Afghanistan in August 2007.My research at that time helped in

understanding many more subtle aspects of the issue.

Camp Leatherneck as an operational screen Located in south Helmand Camp Bastion is an operational screen against Taliban infiltration from Chaghai district in Pakistani Balochistan.The Taliban are strong in this area and used to commute openly during all times from all directions.Establishment of this camp with its heavy air power complement may restrict Taliban movement. Camp Leatherneck as an anti narcotic strategic outpost Located on the main east west drug corridor the force in the camp can effectively interdict east to west flow of narcotics.Here the Pashtun drug mafia comprising the Barakzai and Nurzai tribes generally carries the drugs till Char Burjak from where they are picked by the Baloch drug mafia comprising Rind,Sanjarani,Reki and Notezai tribes.These Baloch carry the drugs to Iranian and Pakistani Balochistan.

Camp Leatherneck as an initiative to capacity building of Afghan National Army and Afghan Border Police in the Shorawak Chaghai and Chaghai Koh I Malik Siah Corridor Presently there is hardly any Afghan presence on the border west of Shorawak right till the Iranian border post on Koh I Malik Siah.Camp Leatherneck is a first step in the capacity building of Afghan forces in this area.However one brigade group will not be enough for a 450 km length border comprising the harshest terrain in the world.If the USA wants to do this it would require at least four similar brigade groups in the Helmand and Nimroz provinces.This is the weak link.The USA has to fight its own war.Pakistanis ,Afghans etc are not US allies but cheap US mercenaries with limited military effectiveness against the well motivated Taliban.

Camp Leatherneck as a flanking block to Taliban movement from south to north in Kandahar Province The Taliban generally used to move at leisure from the Shorawak-Chaghai corridor to Kandahar in the north.The forces at Camp Leatherneck can attack these forces now aerially as well as with a ground component.

Camp Leatherneck as a political offensive Camp Leatherneck may be viewed as an offensive posture by Iran vis a vis the Jundullah group that operates from Pakistani Balochistan against Iranian government in Irani Balochistan.The camp is near the dividing line of Baloch and Pashtun population from north to south and east to west.It has great potential to serve as a forward staging section for human intelligence gathering.Seen in this context the camp may be viewed with great apprehension in Iran.

Below are two maps , entirely my own imagination conceived in December 2005.When I showed them to my friend Doug Scherer ,a spirited young man serving as second secretary in US Embassy,he remarked that the State Department is so shit scared of Iran that they would have a heart attack if they see this imaginary depiction.Wet pussies he told me ,his seniors in state department were,hiding behind e mails abd taking no decisions !

Strategic Value Helmand is the largest province of Afghanistan with an area of 59,720 square kilometer as per the Afghan Cartographic Instiute in Kabul.The southern half comprises some 30,000 square kilometers.It is doubtful if one US brigade group comprising some 5,000 to 6000 actual fighting troops can make much difference to the outcome of the war in Afghanistan.Seen in this context the camp is a puny pin prick rather a strategic thrust.A thin crow bar rather than a strategic dagger.Logistically it is difficult and expensive to maintain.Fuel supplies and logistic convoys supplying the camp would be ideal Taliban ambush targets.In the final reckoning the major gainers would be the private contractors

who have constructed the camp at very high rates and private contractors who are and will supply it.To my knowledge the huge job of constructing this camp was not advertised in the US Army Corps of Engineers website.

CONCLUSION Camp Leatherneck though pivotal in the new US strategy in Afghanistan is a significant step in the right direction.However at the strategic level its value is limited unless the broader US policy is more effective and far greater military resources are pumped in.It appears that the grand resolve to win is missing in the new US strategy.What is being done is a stop gap arrangement.This is not the way wars are fought to be won.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WHAT SHOULD BE THE US STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN

MAJOR AGHA H AMIN (RETIRED)

AUGUST 2008

In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical level has became a laughing stock for the world.

Starting from the premise that both USA’s total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.

Absurdities surround this war which need to be addressed ? Expensive bombs,munitions, ammunition and logistics are being consumed in killing men who do not deserve so much expense, while some 75 % munitions in any case miss the intended target ? Who is benefitting from all this other than the military defence complex , US and non US military sub contractors and worst of all the vast bulk of logistics sub contractors who are actually Taliban disguised as contractors.

All expenses being paid by the US taxpayer who has nothing to gain and all the profit being made by the military industrial complex and the dirty and greedy defence contractors !

There is a a better way of dealing with Afghanistan and Iraq than spending dollars, every cent of which are a waste and to add insult to injury when the US and NATO forces withdraw one day these guys would chant ” Islam has won ” or more absurd ” Afghanistan is a graveyard of Empires” , pure and unadulterated nonsense ! They would forget the billions of US taxpayersmoney wasted in a country with near zero infra structure and all the profits that Afghan and Iraqi middle men , sub contractors made !

The gist of the problem is that USA is making all the efforts fiscal and material.Russia and China are secretly rejoicong and seeing US resources and morale being drained and soldiers dying for an ungrateful lot .

Oil rich Arab states are relaxing with Saddam eliminated and a reduced Iranian threat.

The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle. This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan. If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh.

Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s, taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources, Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia’s reassertion and regeneration.

The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents. They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.

When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.

Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned. The Russians contained US influence in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and countered it in Kirgizistan with a rival Soviet base.The Iranians did not budge or blink.

US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan presented a golden target for Islamists in getting a really swift short cut to paradise. The USA did not make use of the smaller ethnicities like Baloch or Kurd.

They continued to rely on the multi ethnic larger states and were decieved and robbed of many billion US dollars.Iraq was not pacified and its situation to date is unstable and unpredictable.

Iran was strengthened in the process with a Shia regime in Iraq.Another Shia regime in Syria,unchallenged and dealt with by the USA and the Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In short the USA landed into a long term strategic stalemate.

A sitting duck target which can be attacked by guerrila forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Its a matter of time that the anti US forces acquire SAM missiles.And once this happens the USA would have to rely on greater troop levels which would be costly and financially very very draining.

In case of Pakistan the USA again failed to achieve any of its objectives.If there were any.Pakistan was not denuclearised.Its non state actors were not pacified.And above all the team which the USA had handpicked in Pakistan failed to deliver.China remains healthy and growing.

Russia is now riposting the USA in Georgia and Ukraine and covertly at many places.

In short in seven years of war and with heavy expenses the USA achieved little.

Afghanistan was not reconstructed but the seeds of its Balkanistaion firmly planted.All US money went to US contractors or smaller contractors from Turkey,Lebanon,South Korea and Afghanistan.Most of the major sub contractors were war lords or to add insult to injury Taliban linked contractors in the south.

Instead of shifting troops to Afghanistan or enlarge the war to Iran or Pakistan the USA needs to re-think its entire strategy.

Some key features of a new strategy may be :–

1-Withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining bases in the Gulf/Pakistan/Saudi Arabia.

2-Instead of fighting the Al Qaeda or Taliban directly, let them have a chance to once again become state actors and present both Russia and China a serious threat.

3-Retain international goodwill by acting as a power which stands for peace.

4-Make the regional actors do the job of making the world a safer place.These include Russia,China,India,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Iraq,UAE etc.

5-Concentrate on the USA mainland and on intelligence assets rather than actual physical combat.

6-Create new client states dependent wholly on US support in the region.

7-Cease wasting a cent in states like Afghanistan,Pakistan and Iraq. Afghanistan should be managed by Russia,China,India,Iran and Pakistan who will countercheck each other and the area would have a permanent stalemate with no victors.Simlarly India and Pakistan will balance each other.Indians fear Pakistani nuclear devices more than USA and its quixotic to think that Pakistani nuclear devices would ever be used against USA.

The most important feature of the new strategy would be withdrawal from both Iraq and Afghanistan. This would immediately lead to a new power struggle with Iraq and Afghanistans neighbour also involved deeply rather than being silent spectators as now.

Any Taliban victory in Afghanistan and any Al Qaeda victory or a Shia victory in Iraq would restart the old Arab Iran struggle in Iraq.Fat oil rich Arab states would be spending all the money instead of the USA.

In Afghanistan also any Taliban resurgence would force Russia ,China,India and Iran to step in and the Taliban would still be contained without a single US cent wasted.

This is a pointless war with no tangible centre of gravity which what to talk of USA , no one

can win.So the USA must make the dragons fight the dragons.Regardless of the fact that the dragons are Islamists,Russians,Iranians,Arabs,Indians or Pakistanis. The USA needs to adopt a strategy which makes the Russians , Iranians,Pakistanis,Arabs and Indians stand on their toes. The best strategy is to make others fight and if you do fight , fight with minimal expense ! Do the American decision makers have grey matter?! Thats the billion dollar question ?

24 August, 2009 MAJOR TALIBAN BATTLE GROUPS IN AFGHANISTAN-CLICK ON MAP TO ENLARGE

A BATTLE GROUP COMPRISES IN BETWEEN 500 TO 3000 FIGHTERS DEPENDING ON THE AREA.GENERALLY ONE THIRD IS HARD CORE AND TWO THIRDS ARE MOBILISED IN CRISIS. MARKED IN YELLOW THIS IS AN ASSESSMENT UPDATED TILL JULY 2009. EACH GROUP HAS DEFINED TARGETS MOSTLY FOBS AND STATIC LOCATION. EACH GROUP HAS TECHNICAL AND LOGISTIC CADRES.THE TECHNICAL GROUP DEALS WITH IEDS,COMMUNICATIONS AND INTELLIGENCE.LOGISTIC GROUP DEALS WITH LOGISTICS AS WELL AS FINANCES.

26 August, 2009 MOST MISERABLE US FAILURE failure to interdict the money and logistic supplyline of all anti US forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the most miserable failure of USA. the main reason is lack of the burning desire to destroy the enemy.the US officials are basically middle class boys making a good living.for them being in afghanistan is for getting a better pay cheque.who wins or who loses is not their concern ! HA HA HA Agha Amin

26 August, 2009 ONGOING BALOCHISTAN WAR IN PAKISTAN AND IRAN

WITH THE PAKISTANI STATE NOW PITCHED AGAINST THE BALOCH AND REAL PASHTUNS (FATA) THE CHANCES OF THEIR WINNING THE WAR ARE DIM.UNLESS THE PAKISTANI STATES EXERCISES JUSTICE AND FAIRPLAY ? ITS GOOD LUCK OF PAKISTAN THAT THE AMERICANS HAVE NEAR ZERO IQ AND THE INDIANS ARE AS HOPELESS AND AS MEDIOCREA AS THE PAKISTANIS ! HA HA HA 28 August, 2009 Discussion with an American on Afghan war that age when USA had great men at the helm of affairs is gone.its not a question of defeat being inevitable but absence of that burning fire and zeal in the US bureaucracy and leadership.a better way

of dealing with afghanistan could have been to give afghanistan an infrastructure project which could give a guaranteed income.a simple project could have beenb relaying the pipeline from shibirgan to uzbekistan and shibirgan to kabul.both were entirely feasible and through safe area.no thought was given. an ideal strategy would be to keep some bases and make the taliban fight the indians/iranians/russians combined.instead USA is doing all the fighting protecting soft under5belly of Russia and China

the Russians made sure that the talibans get all the weapons and ammo to make the TAPI area insecure.above all the USA lacks that political and military will to destroy the taliban.the taliban are not invincible nor their victory inevitable.militarily the USA could have easily secured a corridor for the TAPI.Its a question of perceptions.Just think if the TAPI pipeline is ready Russia Iran and even China would lose in the energy war in Turkmenistan and the region .Worse was the US failure to make the Shibirgan line which would have run through entirely safe area.instead USA was building camps which would one day be abandoned.Yes US companies made money.Main loser is US taxpayer but who cares.

13 September, 2009 An Alternate Afghan Strategy What Will Happen if the USA Withdraws From Afghanistan

www.chowk.com

http://www.chowk.com/Views/What-Will-Happen-if-the-USA-Withdraws-From-Afghanistan

A.H Amin

While it is theoretically neat and cosmetically nice to advance the view point that the USA should withdraw from Afghanistan.The idea is far complicated at the strategic and operational level. While it is true that the Pakistan and US sponsored so called Mujahideen

did not follow the USSR into Russia,their successors the Taliban were allied with parties with a Pan Islamist outlook.Parties which wanted to carry Jihad into Europe,America and Africa. The USSR withdrawal from Afghanistan was not a military defeat but a political act of withdrawal covered by the creation of the Northern Alliance which was half leftist and pro Russian.The fact of the matter remains that USSR withdrawal was fallaciously interpreted as a great victory of Islam,while actually it was not so.This interpretation led to creation of many dreams of glory and carrying on of the Islamic Jihad into India,Bosnia,Chechniya etc. Any US withdrawal from Afghanistan would create another delusion.A false conclusion that Islam has won and USA lost.It would boost morale in the Islamists and would lead to far greater chaos and confusion than ever witnessed before in modern history. In brief the implications of a US withdrawal would be :-1-Collapse of the moderate Afghan regime created after billions of dollars of US and European/G 8 aid within a matter of months. 2-Creation of an unemployed and uncommitted reserve of Islamic extremists who are well trained in military art and would represent a greater threat to the Pakistani state as it presently exists and to all neighbours of Afghanistan. 3-A renewed civil war in Afghanistan with Taliban backed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and the Northern Alliance backed by Russia,Iran,Central Asian Republics and possibly USA and China. The key to the Afghan disorder lies in Afghanistans neighbours and not in Afghanistan itself :-1-Pakistan and Saudi Arabian states regard Afghanistan as a battle ground in between an Iran/Indian/Russian backed Northern Alliance and a Sunni puritan Talibans.

2-Russia ,India,Central Asian Republics and G 8 in general regard Taliban as a threat to their countries and to the region. A possible solution may be in the following :-1-Continued US presence retaining key military bases in North Afghanistan and in Baloch majority Nimroz as sword of Damocles for the Taliban .Withdrawal of US forces from South Afghanistan while retaining the Kabul Torkham Corridor which is safe in any case. 2-Integrating Russia,India and Pakistan in a regional solution while creating an Independent North Afghanistan which is Non Pashtun majority,South Afghanistan which is Pashtun majority ,and a Baloch Autonomous Region in the south west Afghanistan. 3-Initiation of dialogue with the Taliban offering them South Afghanistan while withdrawing US/NATO forces north of the line Dilaram-Uruzgan-Ghazni-Paktiya-Paktika while retaining Baloch majority Nimroz. Rationale of the Partition Plan 1-Allow areas whose populace is anti Taliban to have a separate state.Let the Taliban enjoy the peculiarly Pashtun gravy of their narrow Saudi Deobandi flavour of Islam. 2-Create a cordon sanitaire in the west separating Baloch majority areas from Taliban area and also have a corridor the Turkmen Afghanistan pipeline. 3-Retain US/NATO air bases where the population genuinely needs their protection against Taliban. 4-Withdraw US/NATO forces from an area where their presence is costly and strategically in any case ineffective. Nothing in history is inevitable.Afghanistan was a province of Mughal,Saffavid and the Bokharan Uzbeks till 1747.It was controlled by a subsidy of 13 lakh per month by British from 1857 to 1919 and it was a neutral country with no threat to world peace from 1919 to 1978. It is a misconception that Taliban control 90 % of Afghanistan or all

population of Afghanistan is with Taliban unless you believe the Pakistani or Saudi establishment.The Saudi establishment fears the Shias and Iran far more than USA or Israel.Thus the deep Saudi interest in a Taliban dominated Afghanistan.The fact is that Taliban control some 50 % of Afghanistan while some 60 % of Afghanistans population is against them . If the USA withdraws what will happen to the 60 % who are against the Taliban ? These include Tajiks,Uzbeks,Turkmens,Hazaras and many educated Pashtuns .This would be a great political and strategic failure of USA and NATO ? The main winners in this case would be Russia,India and Iran in Afghamistans north and Pakistans generals and Saudis in the south. A solution of Afghan war must be based on a combination of B-52 bombers,US Dollars,Divide and Rule and regional guarantees.

17 September, 2009 How the Afghan War is being financed-The Grand Party going on in Afghanistan

The Afghan war contrary to commonly believed myths is a grand affair in terms of money being made by drug mafia,taliban and all groups fightng it. Money from all major US logistics contracts is going to contractors who are taliban after sunset and contractors before sunset ! Every US soldier killed is financed by money coming from Saudi Arabia/UAE/Iran/Russia and with explosives and bullets smuggled from CIS and Iran/Iraq. Attached is a map to encapsulate this ocean of information in a single map .

20 September, 2009 three men most hated and cursed in balochistan

for double dealing with sardar nauroz khan , gaining his surrender by giving false assurances and then executing his sons with a kangaroo court martial.

for imposing one unit on balochistan so that all its revenues are spent on building the capital of hazara potohar , a stinking symbol known as islamabad ,which had nothing to do with islam.

cheap social climber for murdering nawab akbar bugti and for carrying out genocide in balochistan in which more than 5000 non combatants have been killed to date. the pakistani generals are past masters in disintegrating pakistan.pakistan lost its territory or beacme vulnerable to losing its territory when the country was ruled by tinpot usurpers.here are three men most hated and cursed in balochistan.they will go in history as fathers of independent balochistan.posterity must know that pakistans generals through faux pas made pakistan lose territory. 21 September, 2009 Iranian Strategic Rationale in supporting anti US insurgents in Afghanistan As I see it iranian position is simple ---

1- one sunni afghan insurgent killed or one US soldier killed , both are of strategic benefit to iran.one sunni less contributes to a weaker taliban threat to post US afghanistan---one US soldier killed again benefits iran.one has to see Iranians closely and only then one can understand how much the hate the Sunnis.Perhaps as much as the Saudis hate Shias.Now this is a very serious basis of this whole argument.

2-in the same light iranian intelligence seeks greater conflict in pakistani balochistan so that pakistani security forces kill more baloch and the baloch secessionist threat inside iran is reduced.seen in this light i would not even rule out complicity of iranian intelligence in turbat murders of three baloch leaders blamed on pakistani intelligence. 01 October, 2009 Memories of the leftist regime in Afghanistan

01 October, 2009 Yaqubi Plan

General Ghulam Farooq Yaqubi , a great human being and a committed leftist,head of KHAD from 1986 to 1992 made a brilliant plan in 1986.To infiltrate the so called Mujahids with leftists slowly and gradually.The Northern Alliance parties who were handed over Kabul by the leftists were and are run by old leftists. When Kabul was handed over to Mujahids they headed for the Ministry of National Security (KHAD) and shot General Yaqubi dead.Later they falsely proclaimed that he had committed suicide.The Mujahids destroy many secret documents but an Afghan intelligence colonel disclosed that many documents were shifted to the USSR in 1989.

05 October, 2009 KAMDESH AMBUSH-8 US TROOPS LOST If I was an insurgent group commander I would have done the logistics for the attack as following :---

IN SEPTEMBER 2009 I had plotted Taliban groups on my blog as following and the area where the attack took place was one of them.

It was 2004 when I visited this valley for sake of curiousity.My Nuristani friends insisted not to go beyond one point which was about 5 or 6 km from the site of the ambush.

My assessment of the ambush which I also gave to Nafeesa Hoodhbhoy from VOICE OF AMERICA RADIO on 04 October 2009

1-Nuristans thick forests have a very special monster.The locals talk about it in subdued voices even in the safety of their houses.They say its a very dangerous group.This may all be hearsay. 2-However the area is known to be one of the most inaccessible in Eastern Afghanistan.

3-The work is :--

That of a state actor with possibly regular troops disguised as irregulars.

Logistically the area can be supported in priority from Chitral in Pakistan.Second best would be Tajikistan via Badakhshan with dumping done two or three months in advance.GRU trained Uzbeks or irregular trained by any state actor or major non state actor based in Pakistan cannot be ruled out. The Americans have been attacked in Nuristan in 2004,2005 ,2006,2008 and now.Every time with a special ferocity.

The attack was aimed at US public opinion and specifically aimed at causing maximum attrition designed to discourage the idea of pumping in more troops.Again a sign of a state actor. GHQ Attack-Serious Questions http://www.chowk.com/Views/GHQ-Attack-Serious-Questions GHQ Attack-Serious Questions 13 October 2009 The attack on Pakistani GHQ raises more serious questions about Pakistan Army's military effectiveness and potency than answers. The most crucial and grave question is that the Pakistani military seems to have lost in a great degree its coercive value amd moral deterrence. Something which is the foundation of any political system and on which all agree starting from Freud, Aristotle, Plato down to Marx Lenin Mao and Khomeni. Once General Musharraf decided to make a U turn under coercion by USA the army lost its moral credibility in the eyes of a large section of Pakistani populace, not the majority but a sizeable minority far more effective in tangible potency than a far larger minority.

The first most serious question is not from where the threat originated but how did a small minority of a few handpicked young men developed the resolution to attack the citadel of Pakistani military,the GHQ ? Its an intangible question but far more serious than whether these men had their organisational centre in Wazirstan or Afghanistan. The second serious question is the response to the attack. Or one may say the lack of response! If ten or so armed men can terrorise and paralyse a half a million plus armys headquarter for 22 plus hours the issue is strategic rather than tactical! If ten civilians trained by irrational mullahs can penetrate a citadel hitherto considered impregnable and unpenetrable and 1600 officers inside it are like chicken in a babr wired coup at mercy of ten armed and highly motivated men then the situation is grave,not routine. In a nutshell the serious aspects of the issue are :-The most serious threat to Pakistan is internal and not external. The military has lost its strategic and coercive deterrent value. That ten armed civilians penetrated a military headquarters guarded by an infantry battalion and a similar number of DSG soldiers is a serious strategic imbalance. That 6 plus armed men were roaming the GHQ for many hours and had the opportunity to kill many generals,an opportunity that they for some mysterious reasons chose not to exercise is a cause of grave strategic concern. The fact that the perimeter guarding battalion 10 Punjab although it killed some four intruders failed to hold the few attackers from penetrating the GHQ is a grave matter. The fact that the battalion plus DSG soldiers although armed with G 3 and SMG rifles just bolted away is a grave matter. The fact that it took more than 18 hours and the fact that SSG troops had to be brought from some 70 miles away to redeem the situation is ironic par excellence. The fact that Pakistan's enemies both state and non state are so ineffective still is the only consoling part of the issue.

Here is a case of a military machine :-Fighting a civil war with serious internal fractures. A military machine which has lost a great degree of its coercive value. Lack of initiative in the officer rank and lack of forethought in not allowing the some 1600 officers in GHQ not to carry weapons. The primacy of non state actors in Pakistan. Sad is the story. Hilarious are the praises being heaped on the military's response. Where is the honour and dignity of danger in overcoming six well motivated irregulars by a commando force outnumbering them by 100 to 1. This is not a criticism. I am not a paid journalist. This is a call for reflection. Serious reflection and serious inner thinking that may be the spur to serious reorganisation in the Pakistani military. The enemy is not in Waziristan or Afghanistan. The enemy is our own damn inefficiency and complacency. It merits serious thinking at all plains, tactical,operational and strategic.

18 October, 2009 Waziristan Operation

Waziristan Operation http://www.chowk.com/Views/Waziristan-Operation 19 October 2009

Agha Amin

With much bragging and swagger the Waziristan Operation also glorified as mother of all battles has been launched from 17 October 2009. While it is important for military morale to spread the word that God or Allah is on side of the Pakistan Army , wars are not fought by propaganda or media alone.It all bottom down to superior strategy,superior operational strategy and superior tactics by a military machine which is well supplied,has the right firepower at the right time,good intelligence,high morale and finally the physical endurance to climb the highest and steepest rocky pinnacles and traverse mountain gorges under the deadliest threats of ambuscades and annihilation. What are the key elements of the situation one may ask without fear of forfeiture of rank or military or worldly advancement.A journalist who does not have the motive to please anyone and who writes not for money can or may do it. Here are my two cents or half cent :-1. The Waziristan Talibans centre of gravity is no longer the Mehsud inhabited area of South Waziristan.They have spread into Orakzai Agency,into DI Khan,into Bannu District,into Khyber Agency ,Kurram Agency,South Punjab and most notably Karachi,which is a monster city of some 18 million souls some one third Pashtun or lets say one fourth Pashtun.Any tangible military operation in Waziristan will not destroy the Taliban.The Taliban require a broader strategy. 2. The Talibans are not an ethnic movement.They are an ideological movement and have some support,in all parts of Pakistan.Seen in this context the Mehsud tribe although the core leadership of Taliban is a diverse set up in which leadership may not be destroyed even if the Mehsuds are destroyed or suffer serious casualties. 3. Security and power they say is more psychological than physical.15,000 British soldiers held all India in the First World War ! Today 50,000 Pakistani troops cannot control FATA 1 % of size of British India ! Have things changed oe we changed ! The Pakistani security forces have fast lost this moral deterrence since 2004 with reverses in Waziristan,attack on corps commander and army chief and

finally the GHQ attack.While apologist may brush them aside as of no consequence the intangible trends are dangerous.A state cannot go on with an army that is no longer respected or feared may it be China,USA or Pakistan.This is Pakistans most grave strategic imbalance or vulnerability. 4. The Taliban are supported by non state actors in Pakistan,have silent supporters in the state actors,have foreign state and non state supporters who support them for various agendas.By merely launching the army in South Waziristan they cannot be destroyed. 5. The Taliban inflicting major damage on USA are in Kandahar or Helmand but these are being rewarded with rich construction and logistic sub contracts by US aid agencies since 2001.They carry on drug and weapons trade day and night and are not interdicted by any US forces as I have repeatedly seen as a contractor based in South Afghanistan since 2004.Are they being prepared for Iran or at some stage China.Its a question that only history will answer.These Talban have their centre in Pakistani Balochistan but have never been attacked by the US. 6. So much propaganda and rhetoric has preceeded the Waziristan Operation that the Waziristan Taliban have had ample time to relocate to Birmal in Afghanistan and to other tribal agencies adjoining South Waziristan and even to Punjab,settled NWFP area and to Karachi which is the largest Mehsud city in the world ! The key to the issue may be in the following :-1. Economically empowering Pakistans tribal areas with export duty exempt industrial zones to USA and EU.The naieve US senate and congress have not addressed this core issue.What a waste of time this Kerry Lugar Bill. 2. Serious reorganization of Pakistan Army with heavy reliance on technology and on non human military assets like dogs so well used by many armies fighting counterinsurgency.So far the Al Qaeda hs failed to infiltrate in dogs.A dog of a good breed will be a better anti terrorist asset than any human asset in soldiers attire. 3. Serious economic re-structuring of Pakistan with emphasis on power projects and incentives for small business. 4. A rapproachment with India so that the primacy of Pakistani military in politics is reduced. 5. A gradual dis-engagement with USA other than export free zones so that the demeaning impression

of the Pakistani state and armed forces as petty vassals and mercenaries of USA is reduced in the eyes of the Pakistani populace. If military operation could pacify any country there would have been no Vietnam or Afghanistan or even 50 plus expeditions into Waziristan since 1890s till to date.The issue is nor military alone but much larger.Seen in this context the abject surrender of Pakistans political leadership to the Pakistani military to find a Waziristan solution is pathetic at best and shameful at the worst.As they say war is too serious a business to be left to the generals. THE MOST HATED MAN IN PAKISTANI BALOCHISTAN PAKISTANI PRESIDENT AYUB KHAN THE FATHER OF BALOCH GENOCIDE

THE MOST HATED MAN IN PAKISTANI BALOCHISTAN MUSHARRAF

BALOCH NATIONALISTS ALLEGEDLY KILLED BY IRANIAN OR PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT NEAR TURBAT

THE MECHANICS OF THE BALOCH INSURGENCY IN MAND PISHIN AREA

THE MOST HATED MAN IN IRANIAN BALOCHISTAN KILLED IN THE SUICIDE ATTACK

A suicide bomber killed five senior commanders of the elite Revolutionary Guard and at least 26 others in an area of southeastern Iran that has been at the center of a simmering Sunni insurgency, state media reported. The official IRNA news agency said the dead included the deputy commander of the Guard's ground force, Gen. Noor Ali Shooshtari, as well as a chief provincial Guard commander for the area, Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh. The other dead were Guard members or local tribal leaders. More than two dozen others were wounded, state radio reported. The commanders were on their way to a meeting with local tribal leaders in the Pishin district near Iran's border with Pakistan when an attacker with explosives around his waist blew himself up, IRNA said. The explosion occurred at the entrance of a sports complex where the meeting was to be held. Top provincial prosecutor Mohammad Marzieh was quoted by the semi-official ISNA news agency as saying that a militant group from Iran's Sunni Muslim minority called Jundallah, or Soldiers of God,

claimed responsibility. The region in Iran's southeast has been the focus of violent attacks by Jundallah, which has waged a low-level insurgency in recent years. The group accuses Iran's Shiite-dominated government of persecution and has carried out attacks against the Revolutionary Guard and Shiite targets in the southeast. That campaign is one of several ethnic and religious small-scale insurgencies in Iran that have fueled sporadic and sometimes deadly attacks in recent years -- though none have amounted to a serious threat to the government. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed to strike back at those behind Sunday's attack, the official IRNA news agency reported. "The criminals will soon get the response for their anti-human crimes," IRNA quoted him as saying. Ahmadinejad also accused unspecified foreigners of involvement. Iranian officials have often raised concerns that the United States might try to incite members of Iran's many ethnic and religious minorities against the Shiite-led government, which is dominated by ethnic Persians. The Guard commanders targeted Sunday were heading to a meeting with local tribal leaders to promote unity between the Shiite and Sunni Muslim communities. In April, Iran increased security in Sistan-Baluchistan Province, at the center of the tension, by placing it under the command of the Guard, which took over from local police forces.

20 October, 2009 Thoughts on Taliban and ongoing Waziristan Military Operation 2009-A.H Amin i am based in afghanistan since 2004.The USA has hardly troops to seal any border.They have no troops sealing the border of Helmand and Kandahar from where maximum Talib infiltration is taking place.Pakistan Army has no troops sealing Afghan border to support USA on Kandahar and Helmand border either other than the FC who cheer Taliban crossing into Afghanistan. having said that fghan taliban depend on pakistani balochistan for logistics, traffic drugs through pakistani balochistan , and heavily dependent on pakistan hence their cooperation with TTP , or the very thought of it is absurd.Interestingly they are being groomed both by USA and Pakistan and are getting lucrative logistic and construction contracts from US Army.It appears that Pakistan and USA sees them as good future auxillaries for China (USA) Iran (USA) and India (Pakistan).Their existence and activities in Pakistani Balochistan are well known but not a single drone attack there. taliban have various categories (1) Drug Mafia Taliban (2) Tribal Taliban sponsored by a particular tribe in an area (3) Criminal Taliban (by profession mixing religion with business (4)Pk sponsored Taliban (5) US sponsored Taliban (6) Iran sponsored Taliban (7)Indian sponsored (through third or fourth party) Taliban (7)Al Qaeda sponsored Taliban and so many.The USA has nothing against Pk sponsored Taliban.The operation in Waziristan is against Taliban who may fall in category other than category (5) and category (4).The Taliban are not a single group but a mosaic.This suits them operationally because if one piece is destroyed another continues. At one fine moment of history or a horrible moment as one may view it all these particles may unite and become a mountain and a storm which will destroy all that comes in its path.This is my interpretation of history. The taliban signify an ideolgy which has the potential at some stage to overwhelm Pakistan,if not fought with immense skill and determination..What the USA is doing is busying time and adjusting its position to destroy Pakistans nuclear assets at the right time.The Pakistan Army and the Pakistani

establishment are USA's tactical and operational tools to do that.There will be a moment in history when the USA will be forced to go for the kill.The nuclear assets.We live in turbulent times.Already if you study the Taliban grand propaganda orchrestrated and masterminded by Al Qaeda portrays Pakistan Armys generals as Dr Najib and others , i.e tools of non Muslim powers.Its a subtle battle and by using Islam the Al Qaeda and Taliban have divided all pillars of Pakistani society there is nothing inevitable in history.The Waziristan Taliban are the odd man in the game.They attack Pakistan Army and targets in Afghanistan ( debatable).Hence the Pakistani operation.The USA has no problem with other Taliban.They do business while allowing USA to stay in Afghanistan.I would say that the USA has nothing against anti Indian Taliban sponsored by Pakistan also.USA is happy with Pakistan Army as a useful subsidiary vassal doing the tactical garbage collecting.At some stage however the USA may attempt denuclearisation of Pakistan.Once that is done the irregularities in the sculpture would be removed and USA would be happy.At the pentagon level USA and Pakistani generals are one.Only the congress and the senate has to be fooled. About Taliban fighting in the south I would say having seen them as sub contractors that some one who depends on pakistani largesse will not bite the hand that feeds it.in baluchistan main US auxillaries are the baloch militants.if trouble starts in balochistan it would be from baloch side.traditionally the pashtuns in balochistan and kandahar/helmand have been strategic vassals of pakistani establishment.only a man who has lived in quetta can understand this. the US troop induction in helmand and kandahar is in order to have a strong upper hand in case pakistani or irani balochistan is destabilised.it appears that the USA has realised the usefulness of Iranian and Pakistani Balochistan.

24 October, 2009

Afghanistan -Taliban Groups plotted on map by Agha.H.Amin--NOTE THAT THIS MAP IS BASED ON MANY YEARS RESEARCH

This article is an attempt to understand the Taliban phenomenin in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban have various categories (1) Drug Mafia Taliban (2) Tribal Taliban sponsored by a particular tribe in an area CONTRACTOR TALIBAN (3) Criminal Taliban (by profession mixing religion with business (4)Pk sponsored Taliban or GOOD TALIBAN (5) US sponsored Taliban CONTRACTOR TALIBAN (6) Iran sponsored Taliban (7)Indian sponsored (through third or fourth party) Taliban or ANTI PAKISTANI STATE TALIBAN OR RUSSIA/CIS LINKED TALIBAN (7)Al Qaeda sponsored Taliban and so many.The USA has nothing against Pk sponsored Taliban.The operation in Waziristan is against Taliban who may fall in category other than category (5) and category (4). The Taliban are not a single group but a mosaic.It appears that this is not by design but for various complex socio political reasons. Drug mafia Taliban are the old drug mafia in Afghanistans south and east who have joined the Taliban fold in order to carry on their drug business. Every province and district has taliban centering around the major tribe in that particular area.In Afghanistans south the taliban are sub tribes of Durranis i.e Nurzais,Popalzais,Barakzais etc.In the east they have a Zadran heavy component centering around Jalaluddin Haqqani a Zadran.In Pakistan the Mehsuds and the Wazirs are the leading Taliban components. Criminal elements have also joined the Taliban in significant number.In some areas criminal elements pose as Taliban while in some areas they have actively joined the Taliban.This suits both parties operationally as well as economically.Guerrilla warfare and crime overlap. The USA has also sponsored or supported many Taliban groups.In south Afghanistan major US sub contractors are Taliban.A small example would illustrate the point.You may take a 40 foot container truck from Karachi to Peshawar for 120,000 Rs, some 2000 Km.You have to take a container from Quetta to Camp Dwyer some 500 Km and you pay between 500,000 Rs to 800,000 Rs. Then there are the so called GOOD TALIBAN.These are the ones who have their base in Pakistani Balochistan or the Pakistan Afghan border,do not attack Pakistan Army and also have links with US/NATO as CONTRACTOR TALIBANS. There are third party sponsored Taliban possibly penetrated by Iranian,Russian/CIS,Indian or any other state intelligence.They have a client state specific agenda.Iranian linked and Russian linked would attack NATO/US.Indian sponsored or third party linked may attack Pakistan Army and so on.

AL QAEDA linked Taliban attack US/NATO as well as Pakistan Army. The USA has hardly troops to seal any border.They have no troops sealing the border of Helmand and Kandahar from where maximum Talib infiltration is taking place.Pakistan Army has no troops sealing Afghan border to support USA on Kandahar and Helmand border either other than the FC who cheer Taliban crossing into Afghanistan. The taliban operating in Helmand ,Kandahar ,Nimroz,Farah and Zabul to a significant extent depend on pakistani balochistan for logistics, traffic drugs through pakistani balochistan , and heavily dependent on pakistan hence their cooperation with TTP , or the very thought of it is absurd.Interestingly they are being groomed both by USA and Pakistan and are getting lucrative logistic and construction contracts from US Army.It appears that Pakistan and USA sees them as good future auxillaries for China (USA) Iran (USA) and India (Pakistan).Their existence and activities in Pakistani Balochistan are well known but not a single drone attack there. About Taliban fighting in the south I would say having seen them as sub contractors that some one who depends on pakistani largesse will not bite the hand that feeds it.in baluchistan main US auxillaries are the baloch militants.if trouble starts in balochistan it would be from baloch side.traditionally the pashtuns in balochistan and kandahar/helmand have been strategic vassals of pakistani establishment.only a man who has lived in quetta can understand this. The taliban signify an ideolgy which has the potential at some stage to overwhelm Pakistan,if not fought with immense skill and determination.. What the USA is doing is busying time and adjusting its position to destroy Pakistans nuclear assets at the right time.Pakistani nuclear weapons are a serious strategic (one pint of view regarding it as a valid concern) concern for USA.However the Pakistan Army and the Pakistani establishment are USA's tactical and operational tools to do that.There will be a moment in history when the USA will be forced to go for the kill.The nuclear assets.We live in turbulent times.Already if you study the Taliban grand propaganda orchrestrated and masterminded by Al Qaeda portrays Pakistan Armys generals as Dr

Najib and others , i.e tools of non Muslim powers.Its a subtle battle and by using Islam the Al Qaeda and Taliban have divided all pillars of Pakistani society There is nothing inevitable in history.The Waziristan Taliban are the odd man in the game.They attack Pakistan Army and targets in Afghanistan ( debatable).Hence the Pakistani operation.The USA has no problem with other Taliban.They do business while allowing USA to stay in Afghanistan.I would say that the USA has nothing against anti Indian Taliban sponsored by Pakistan also.USA is happy with Pakistan Army as a useful subsidiary vassal doing the tactical garbage collecting.At some stage however the USA may attempt denuclearisation of Pakistan.Once that is done the irregularities in the sculpture would be removed and USA would be happy.At the pentagon level USA and Pakistani generals are one.Only the congress and the senate has to be fooled. A word about the US troop induction in helmand and kandahar is in order to have a strong upper hand in case pakistani or irani balochistan is destabilised.it appears that the USA has realised the usefulness of Iranian and Pakistani Balochistan.From what I have observed the USA rhetoric aside does not regard the Kandahar/Helmand/Farah Taliban as a serious threat.There has not been much fighting in this area other than IED attacks,possibly linked to Iranian sponsored or criminal Taliban. To conclude its a complicated mosaic and each group has to be dealt with , using a specific strategy and tactics.The key idea being not to let any or all of them unite at some stage.A temporary union perhaps like KMT and Red Army in pre 1945 against Japan.Each type can be countered by sponsoring similar groups and above all by introducing confusion of principle as a strategy.The central issue in this war is intelligence and assasination (covert operations) and not firepower or pitched battles.These are professional assasins and cut throats and indoctrinated fanatics.They only understand the language of violence or money.Let there be no doubt about it.Seen in this context Mc Crystal is an ideal choice to deal with them.PROVIDED HE IS GIVEN WHAT HE WANTS. RESIGNATION OF US OFFICIAL IN AFGHANISTAN-2009

01 November, 2009 Prof. Rasul Amin-Obituary-By-Agha Amin

A great friend of mine , more than a father , more than a teacher,guide,mentor,confidant died in

Australia yesterday.Rasul Amin was not a man but an instiution and his death is a loss not only for his friends , family and relatives but for Afghanistan,Pakistan and the entire West and Central Asian region. A renowned Afghan political thinker and at a later stage of his life ,politician , a word that he did not like ,Rasoul Amin breathed his last yesterday morning in Australia. He was 72. Born on May 10 1939 at Watapur in Kunar Province ,Rasul Amin was son of a prominent Khan and his mother was from Chitral.He got his primary education from Kabul and joined the Islamia College Peshawar in 1956.He did his B.A. from Islamia College, Peshawar, was elected as a General-Secretary of the students union, named Khyber Union,a unique , unprecedented honour for an Afghan student and got the colour of best debater in 1963. He completed his MA in political science from Peshawar University in 1966 and then pursued an illustrious career in teaching at the Kabul University where he rose to the post of chairman of department of philosophy and social sciences in May 1976.His illustrious academic career was interrupted in 1979 when he sought refuge in Pakistan.Many of his close relatives were Khalqi leftists and he also is said to have leftist sympathies but all this changed when he was placed under arrest by Hafeezullah Amin regime in May 1979 for a short time.He crossed into Pakistan from a remote mountain pass on foot on 4th January 1980 alongwith his family members , he told me in June 2004.

In Peshawar his political affiliation was Professor Gillanis National Islamic Front of Afghanistan.He initially worked with renowned Afghan intellectual Professor Majrooh in the Afghanistan Information Centre.

He founded WUFA , writers union of free Afghanistan on 21 March 1985.The idea was intellectual warfare against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Konard Adenauer Foundation (Germany), USIS, Asia Foundation (USA) Royal Ministry for foreign Affairs, Denmark financed all the WUFA and ASC activities. Director of Afghanistan Study Centre. In order to meet the requirements of new circumstances the Executive Body of Former Writers Union of Free Afghanistan (WUFA) drastically changed the wartime manifesto of the WUFA and replaced it by Afghanistan Study Centre (ASC) with a new Charter. Minister of Education in Interim Administration of Afghanistan, representing the Rome process initiated by H.M the Former King of Afghanistan.

His blunt views were not liked by many in the Afghan Government and his President Karzai was no exception to this.In 2002 he resigned his post of minister of education and decided to devote himself fully to the intellectual regeneration of Afghanistan and to Afghan Pak friendship. Every evening and many times after lunch we met without a day of absence from 29 June 2004 till 15th April 2008 unless he was out of Kabul or in Australia.I saw in him a combination of Jamaluddin Afghani ,Francis Bacon and Mirza Ghalib .As the evening transformed into darkness Rasul Amin became somber and somewhat gloomy and the discussion always centred around the epic tragedy of Afghanistan.One day he told me he wanted to be buried next to Jamaluddin Afghanis grave in Kabul University.We differed over the Soviet and American invasions of Afghanistan.I thought that the American sabotage of Afghanistan sponsored by tinpot Zia and later Pakistani regimes was the real cause of the tragedy of Afghanistan and he differed.His first cousin Professor Dr Qasim Jamdar was a

diehard Khalqi and so was his brother ,an accomplished Mig 21 pilot of the DRA.Finally when all was concluded with last drops of Stlichnaya or Grants drowned in we departed as immortal and eternal friends. I state with immense pride that he selected me as editor of Journal Of Afghanistan Studies in June 2004. Rasul Amin saw Afghanistan and Pakistan as conjoined twins and realised that friendship was the only way out of the Afghan Pak quagmire.His views were not liked by many at the highest position .However it appears that after many years now Afghan politicians realise that Afghan Pakistan friendship is the only way out of the present crisis.Let this be a vindication of his views and all he stood for. Rasul Amins mortal soul has gone but his ideas are immortal and a source of inspiration for all who knew him or read him.May Allah bless his soul.

21 November, 2009 THE FUTURE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN THE FUTURE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN A.H AMIN Afghanistan will remain the greatest challenge for the strategist and statesman alike for the next ten years and more.It is not so because Afghans are more martial or Islam a great religion.But because Afghanistan has too many crafty neighbours hell bent on destroying this once most peaceful neutral state.

Key trends are as following :-1. The south having a Pakistani vassal enclave known as good Taliban in Pakistan and as the Quetta Shura in Afghanistan. 2. The North strongly anti any Talib with a strong Russian/Indian supported populace , solidly anti Talib ,comprising both Pashtuns , although in minority and a majaority non Pashtun element.This area is by and large peaceful and has government control. 3. The major Talib weapon are IEDs , Iranian manufactured well tried in Iraq, or Russian origin well tried in Russian Special Forces trials or local versions well tested in the sandy wastes of Posti Camp or Shorawak. 4. The USA views the Taliban in the south , the so called good Taliban as a useful future ally against Iran and possibly China at some stage.It sees this as a Pakistani linked force which is safe as long as removed from the more internationalistic elements like Al Qaeda etc.Saudi Arabia sees them as good killers of Shias in Pakistan and possibly Iran. 5. The very idea of USA talking to Taliban is naieve at best and Quixotic at worst.The Taliban do not represent whole Afghanistan.If any settlement has to be negotiated with them Afghanistan would have to be divided.What the Taliban signify is not acceptable to at least 50 % of Afghans.So how can USA or NATO comprmise with a barbarian force that does not represent all Afghans. 6. Any US withdrawal from Afghanistan in totality would be a great US strategic failure.Even if the USA withdraws it must retain bases because the Afghans respect B 52 s and fear Allah although I doubt the second assertion somewhat. 7. US or NATO withdrawal would lead to a renewed war between Northern Alliance supported by Russia ,India and Iran and the good Taliban supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.There would be no Taliban occupation of Kabul or Mazar.Although the Taliban may practice their brand of Islam at Kandahar and Ghazni.

8. Afghan war would continue as long as the Indian Pakistani issue is not decided militarily.A final round has to be fought as all forces of history are moving in this direction.The military in Pakistan is not an army of a state but an army with a state. 9. At some stage the Pakistani military will have to decide for a defined course and all indicators are that the final course will be confrontation with India. 10. In history nothing is simple like many in Pakistan think that the USA will withdraw and Islam would prevai.A rather extremely naieve view of history.What actually happens is different from what many think or imagine.It is so because there are so many forces , tangible and intangible that define history.And long ago Machiavelli discovered that God was neither with us nor with them. To sum up the Afghan war would be fought as a war between USA and Russia and China and Saudi Arabia and India and Pakistan and Iran till either the Russian-Indian-Iranian side prevails or PakistanUSA-Saudi Arabia prevails.USAs role remains ambiguous and variable.All said and done Afghans will be the main losers and India or Pakistan or both may be seriously devastated.Freud long ago discovered that man is not sane.At least not the populace and the soldiers or politicians who lead them.

27 November, 2009 Pakistans Real Position in war on terror

Pakistani political and military elites real position in the so called war on terror is that of a subsidiary vassal.There can be no second thoughts about it. It is another thing that they try themselves to be something else inside Pakistan.

How they reconcile this is the most fragile and vulnerable part of the internal equation in Pakistan. As inflation grows and poverty increases Pakistan is seeing a daily growth in extremism. This is a hydra monster which will destroy everything.

27 November, 2009 ANY SAUDI SPONSORED US AFGHANISTAN SOLUTION WILL BE USA's GREATEST STRATEGIC FAILURE

Afghanistans Tajiks Uzbeks Turkmen Baloch Hazaras and all anti Taliban Pashuns and all Shias are not stray dogs or sub humans who can be left at The mercy of the so called Good Taliban.If USA and NATO carry out a cowardly Withdrawal with dirty Saudi Support Iran,Russia and other Regional countries will intervene to support Afghanistans people.This time when the Russians come they will be welcomed with open arms and USA and NATO will be remembered as the worst scoundrels and cowards in Afghanistans history.

IS US POLICY IN AFGHANISTAN AMBIGUOUS

A.H Amin

Afghanistan will remain the greatest challenge for the strategist and statesman alike for the next ten years and more.It is not so because Afghans are more martial or Islam a great religion.But because Afghanistan has too many crafty neighbours hell bent on destroying this once most peaceful neutral state. Key trends are as following :The south having a Pakistani vassal enclave known as good Taliban in Pakistan and as the Quetta Shura in Afghanistan.These are regarded by US Army also except few groups suported by Iran which supplies IEDs to them to attack US Army.These good boys have most of the lucrative US LOGISTICS AND CONSTRUCTION SUB CONTRACTS. AT SOME STAGE WHEN US WITHDRAWS A DEAL WOULD BE STRUCK WITH THEM AND HERALDED AS A TRIUMPH OF US STATESMANSHIP.ALL IS ON THE CARDS.ONLY AT THE RIGHT TIME.THIS WAY THE TALIBS WILL HAVE THE BEST OF BOTH THE WORLDS .THE ISLAMIC AND THE CHRISTIAN. THE US LOVES THEM FROM INSIDE BECAUSE THEY ARE ANTI IRAN.THE PAKISTANI MILITARY LOVES THEM BECAUSE THEY ARE GOOD CANNON FODDER AGAINST INDIA. I AM SURPRISED THAT NO US JOURNALIST HAS NOTICED THAT USA HAS NOT CARRIED OUT ANY DRONE ATTACK ON PAKISTANI BALOCHISTAN FROM WHERE TALIBS CAUSING MAXIMUM CASUALTIES ON US FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN IN HELMAND,KANDAHAR AND ZABUL OPERATE.ALSO THE USA HAS NEVER PRESSURISED PAKISTAN INTO LAUNCHING ANY OPERATION AGAINST THESE TALIBAN IN BALOCHISTAN.

THE SIMPLE DEDUCTION IS THAT USA , PAKISTAN AND SAUDI ARABIA REGARD THESE AS GOOD TALIBAN. HOWEVER THE SITUATION GETS COMPLICATED WHEN THE RUSSIAN,IRANIAN AND INDIAN FACTOR ENTERS.ALL THREE DO NOT AGREE WIT THE US ,PAKISTAN AND SAUDI VIEWS ABOUT GOOD TALIBAN. The North strongly anti any Talib with a strong Russian/Indian supported populace , solidly anti Talib ,comprising both Pashtuns , although in minority and a majaority non Pashtun element.This area is by and large peaceful and has government control. The major Talib weapon are IEDs , Iranian manufactured well tried in Iraq, or Russian origin well tried in Russian Special Forces trials or local versions well tested in the sandy wastes of Posti Camp or Shorawak. The USA views the Taliban in the south , the so called good Taliban as a useful future ally against Iran and possibly China at some stage.It sees this as a Pakistani linked force which is safe as long as removed from the more internationalistic elements like Al Qaeda etc.Saudi Arabia sees them as good killers of Shias in Pakistan and possibly Iran. The very idea of USA talking to Taliban is naieve at best and Quixotic at worst.The Taliban do not represent whole Afghanistan.If any settlement has to be negotiated with them Afghanistan would have to be divided.What the Taliban signify is not acceptable to at least 50 % of Afghans.So how can USA or NATO comprmise with a barbarian force that does not represent all Afghans. Any US withdrawal from Afghanistan in totality would be a great US strategic failure.Even if the USA withdraws it must retain bases because the Afghans respect B 52 s and fear Allah although I doubt the second assertion somewhat. US or NATO withdrawal would lead to a renewed war between Northern Alliance supported by Russia ,India and Iran and the good Taliban supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.There would be no Taliban occupation of Kabul or Mazar.Although the Taliban may practice their brand of Islam at Kandahar and Ghazni. Afghan war would continue as long as the Indian Pakistani issue is not decided militarily.

A final round has to be fought as all forces of history are moving in this direction.The military in Pakistan is not an army of a state but an army with a state. At some stage the Pakistani military will have to decide for a defined course and all indicators are that the final course will be confrontation with India.

The issue is simple.Musharrafs political game led to a conflict between the Punjabi military and Pashtuns and Baloch over Islam and political autonomy.Both have to be fooled again and re-located in the cannon fodder pool in name of Islam and Pakistan.Thus the renewed support to the good Taliban and re-starting of supporting the Kashmiris and other insurgents in India.The Pakistani generals find their old friends useful allies. All serves the forces in Pakistan who want to use confrontation with Pakistans neighbours as a card for their personal ambitions .Use Islam to rule Pakistan. The issue is simple.The Pakistani generals have decided once again to reintroduce their primacy by intensifying the conflict with India.It suits the generals and the Pakistani military establishment .Thus Zardari has to be removed.

In history nothing is simple like many in Pakistan think that the USA will withdraw and Islam would prevai.A rather extremely naieve view of history. What actually happens is different from what many think or imagine.It is so because there are so many forces , tangible and intangible that define history.And long ago Machiavelli discovered that God was neither with us nor with them. To sum up the Afghan war would be fought as a war between USA and Russia and China and Saudi Arabia and India and Pakistan and Iran till either the Russian-IndianIranian side prevails or PakistanUSA-Saudi Arabia prevails.USAs role remains ambiguous and variable. All said and done Afghans will be the main losers and India or Pakistan or both may be seriously devastated.Freud long ago discovered that man is not sane.At least not the populace and the soldiers or politicians who lead them.

Pindi Mosque Attack Agha Amin 9 December 2009 www.chowk.com http://www.chowk.com/Views/Pindi-Mosque-Attack A keen observer of history must not be satisfied with appearances. He must pierce through the layers of what appears to arrive at what is actual. To a keen reader of history no action or event is ridiculous or senseless. Every action and event in history has a background and motives which propel actors of history to carry out that particular action. History does not move in straight lines as one great thinker Plekhanov said. It is virile, it is unsentimental and it is ruthless in its flow. Seen outwardly the Pindi Mosque attacks seems senseless if you have a heart to feel. Seen in historical context it appears as a consequence of opportunistic policies adopted by General Pervez Musharraf when he sent Pakistan Army into Waziristan in 2003 without sufficient provocation and unwarned by precedent. I do remember saying Friday prayers in this mosque in 1972-73 when my father was a colonel in the army and we live just three streets away from this mosque. But that was a different time. Perhaps less modern but more peaceful certainly. An officer who was in the mosque states that the attackers spoke in particular Mehsud dialect of Pashto and repeatedly cursed and shot the prayers young and old with immense venom and precision. Taunting them repeatedly that there own children were killed. Notable was the role of General Yousuf ex Vice Chief of Army Staff in evacuating some twenty plus children by using the mosques first floor. A process in which Yousuf suffered a dislocated bone and other injuries. Eyewitnesses state that out of seven attackers four were killed some half an hour after they fired the first shot while three escaped. The purpose of writing this little piece is not to defend the attackers but to analyse a grave fracture in Pakistani society. A fracture which if not healed can destroy this country. The real lesson of history is not to dream, not to get intoxicated, not to get provoked.

A real historian is happy even he is branded as a cynic as long as he writes about things as they are even if all around him think that his vision is faulty. Decisions civil and military must be made without succumbing to American pressure which Pakistan's leaders have been repeatedly and shamelessly doing since 2001. Decisions must not be based on primitive emotions of revenge or obstinacy. This is the time that Pakistan's leaders political and military need to do as that great philosopher Spinoza said "Neither to laugh nor to cry but to understand."

12 December, 2009 US War in Afghanistan-Reliability of Afghan soldier is naturally ambiguous as this symbolic photo shows

13 December, 2009 Pakistans Political Future-Agha H Amin PAKISTANS POLITICAL FUTURE AGHA H AMIN The concrete solution of Pakistans problems is social justice and end of corruption of politicians and military.a vain hope.if that does not happen countless military operations will fail.Already the waziristan operation has failed.Now who will do it? not the politicians? A violent coup by a minority political or military (not the army chief) may be the solution. Meanwhile things are moving too fast and with complex factors pakistans balkanisation if the present political and military culture continues is not far off.Pakistans political system has failed.Its army has failed in reforming the political system. The solution is radical reform.if that is done there is a hope, but who will do it is a big question.The situation has parallels to the later mughals: -(1) Failure in dealing with sikh and maratha insurgents (failure in FATA and Balochistan) (2) Foreign invasion of nadir shah (possible invasion by India). (3) Pashtun re-assertion under Ahmad Shah 1748-1773 (4) Arrival of east india compapany (USA and Private Contractors) (5) Extreme corruption of mughal nobility and factions, Turani and

Irani parties (shi sunni strife)

The result: - Balkanisation of Mughal Empire followed by its reunification and conquest by English East India Company There are new Factors however: -1-Islamic Extremism of an international type 2-Nuclear weapons 3-Institutionalised political and military corruption Seen in a nutshell Pakistans centre of gravity is its army with its nuclear weapons which are the real deterrence contributing paradoxically to Pakistans survival and also seen as a threat by Pakistans neighbours. The Pakistani judiciary alone does not have the intututional coercive force to purge Pakistan of all the maladies that afflict Pakistan. You remove the nuclear weapons and Pakistans army will lose its deterrent value against India and Pakistan will be Balkanised. Broadly speaking five scenarios: -1 - Scenario one may be a military takeover with an aim to clean the mess.The chances of this are 60% in the next two to five years.If this fails it will be most likely followed by an external war and denuclearisation and Balkanisation.

2 - Scenario two may be continued political instability and manipulation of politicians by the Pakistani military in an effort to act as best guardiansof Pakistans territorial and ideological frontiers.Chances of this happening are 75% in next five years. 3 - Scenario Three may be major breakdown because of insurgency and external war followed by denuclearisation and Balkanisation.Chances 60% in next ten years. 4 - Scenario Four may be violent military coup by lower or mid ranking officers and radiacal policy changes and bloody political killings.Chances are 25% but can grow to 75% if scenarios 1, 2 and 3 above listed occur in a direction detrimental for Pakistan and things deteriorate. This scenario four may be Pakistans only salvation. 5 - Scenario Five is election of a political leader who is brilliant and has the resolve and ability to carry out reform and succeed.The probability of this happening is 25% unless successively linked to Scenario two or Scenario Four.It is more likely that this brilliant and resolute leader is an army brigadier or major or lieutenant general. If a solution is not found successfully in next five years Pakistans destruction and disappearance may not be far away. 02 January, 2010 Pakistani Militarys Non State Islamist Proxies Policy-By-Agha H Amin Pakistani Militarys Non State Islamist Proxies Policy After 9/11 the Pakistani military and Pakistani policy run by by the Pakistani military faced a really tough test. Pakistan led by General Musharraf its military ruler who was mix of a liberal and a commando steered

what outwardly seemed a U turn. As one analyses the move was more complicated.An Indian military analyst in his book states that Musharraf snatched victory out of jaws of defeat. While the policy of Musharraf after 9/11 was a dual policy to keep the military proxies of Pakistan , the Taliban , a variety of groups centering on both sides of Pakistan Afghanistan border provinces inside the Pakistani military system and also get tremendous leverage in terms of being a US ally and get valuable monetary and military aid from USA.Keeping one feet each in two boats seriously tested the equilibrium of Pakistani military system of proxy wars.It brought serious cracks in the system notably the Mehsud led civil war against the Pakistani military from 2003 till todate. Three factors were at play.One was US pressure on Musharraf to act against the tribal region FATA tribes sheltering the Afghan Taliban and other groups like Al Qaeda,Sipaha i Sahaba,Lashkra i Jhangvi,Hikmatyars Hizb e Islami,Haqqanis group etc.Notable was US raid on a Madrassa in Waziristan in 2002 which was a primer in this civil war.The raid set the Mehsuds and Wazirs against the Pakistani military.If not as a whole , then at least a large part.The incident finally led to an assasination attempt on Musharraf originating from the tribal areas of Waziristan.Such was the internal division that at the same time another assasination attempt against Musharraf was planned by Musharrafs own Pakistan Army commandos and some airforce lower ranks.In playing the game of Dr Jekyl and Mr Hyde Musharraf started appearing more of a villain to many in Pakistan and Afghanistan.My research reveals that Musharraf attempted a difficult balancing act and to some extent succeeded in pleasing both sides but ultimately lost balance and the bluff was called.Ironically by both the USA and Pakistans military proxies the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Socially and temperamentally the Wazirs and Mehsuds are fiercely independent and extremely difficult to manipulate.The Pakistani military in the name of Islam and monetary rewards succeeded in manipulating them from 1947 to 2002.In 2002 this manipulation ended. Another complicating factor in the drama was the fact that the Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban were linked to the FATA tribals by intermarriages.The Al Qaeda also provided significant military and monetary aid to the FATA tribals with large donations by wealthy Arabs. Nevertheless the US Commando strikes and later drone attacks provoked the tribals and forced the

Pakistan Army into operations against them.The unnecessary killings of tribals by US drones and by Lieutenant General Safdar in 2004-6 led the Mehsuds ,Wazirs,Mohmands and Safis into turning against the Pakistani military.The Bhittanis remained weak as always and the Afridis brilliantly executed the balancing act keeping both the Pakistani military and Talibans happy. Significantly the majority of the Taliban/Islamist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, a direct result of Musharrafs covert support to them remained within the Pakistani non state military proxies system.These included Mulla Omar,Haqqani,Hikmatyar,Kunnar Bajaur Wahhabis etc. Three truces that Pakistani military negotiated with Taliban were broken by Pakistani military under US Pressure.To some extent US policy succeeded in making the Pakistani balancing act being counter checked.At least in Waziristan Bajaur and Mohmand.In a large part it failed as majority of Taliban/Islamist groups stayed within Pakistani military proxy non state system like Mulla Omar,Hikmatyar,Haqqani and the Kunnar Bajaur Wahhabis. The assasination of 8 US CIA officials in Khost by a Haqqani group suicide bomber in Khost is a landmark.The Haqqani Group is based in North Waziristan.In large parts of Afghanistans south US policy is a failure.It has failed in driving a wedge in between Pakistani military and its non state Islamist proxies called good Taliban.The Haqqani groups Zadran tribe it may be noted has a strong presence in North Waziristan and Khost Province of Afghanistan. Notable is the Pashtun tradition of Badal.Revenge has a central place in Pashun psyche.Too many killings by USA ,a large part unnecessary have stoked the heat of flames of Pashtun desire for revenge. While travelling in Khost Afghanistan a few kilometres from North Waziristan I asked my tribal host,a Zadran from North Waziristan, How bad was Musharraf ? To my astonisgment he replied , Sir in his time bombs rarely hit us,I mean the Pakistani bombs.This was by design he continued.Now he said , most bombs hit us ! This is stregthening oue r resolve thus so many attacks in Punjab and the Mosque attack in Pindi he said.He said while Pashtuns have a large heart they want to be treated equally.You can obtain our trust by fairplay and fortrightness as Jinnah and all Pakistani governments did till 2001.But sir not by killing us. Jokingly he concluded , a woman cannot have two husbands ! He concluded that dual policies can be

dangerous.At some stage he said the Pakistani state has to decide.Select either Islam or US Dollars ! Such wisdom one may not find at RAND or FPRI ! 08 January, 2010 THE CIA IS LEAKING FROM ALL SIDES

Edward Gibbon who foresaw it all

In October 2006 an Afghan Intelligence Colonel approached US military with crucial information about the Haqqani Drone Factory at Datta Khel ! His motive was a typically Pashtun blood feud ! The Americans immense bravado and swagger brushed this offer aside and jeered " THE AFGHAN INTELLIGENCE IS LEAKING FROM ALL SIDES " TODAY WE CAN STATE WITH CONFIDENCE AND CHRISTIAN HUMILITY THAT "THE CIA IS LEAKING FROM ALL SIDES"

HA HA HA The real war is how to destroy the resolution of the Islamists.Seen in that context US Drone Attacks are a miserable failure.

There is nothing that any Drone technology can do against Drone 786 fuelled by the inatngible fuel of faith.

Though US mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself it is at a loss to discover the breach of security.

The breach sir is in your very American arrogance !

Borrow a leaf from the Holy Bible ! HA HA HA !

The race is not to the swift , nor the battle to the Strong !

This is the Drone that Edward Gibbon had warned about in his monumental Decline and Fall of Roman Empire more than 200 years ago,

Though nothing is inevitable in history the USA needs to realise that its much propagated CIA is not infallible.

British Scotch Officer Major Brown served at North Waziristan in 1940s and his tomb stone has the word DATTA KHEL , inscribed in memory of his affection and respect for the Wazirs and Zadrans

A leading American policy maker had asked me in 2002 how the Muslims would react to the war on terror.

My reply was in my article published in daily NATION on 22 June 2002.This was summer solstice ; the shortest night in the year.The US Dilemma would last for 100 Winter solstices !

Article I wrote for Daily Nation Lahore 21 June 2002.The Nation published it again in AUGUST 2002 .Also published onhttp://www.orbat.com/ the article drew some very outraged responses from US readers:---

WHAT USA SEEKS TO DESTROY

A.H Amin

The three cardinal attributes of today's geopolitics are "globalisation", "non ideological international themes" and "emphasis on economics" rather than "ideological conflict" as the key theme in international relations. It is another thing that below the surface "ideology remains a key issue", "the desire to enslave smaller or weaker states by larger or stronger states" remains the key issue and

"globalisation" is but another name of capitalism practiced at a global scale.

The so called unipolar system also has limitations and is being repeatedly challenged, if not conventionally, then unconventionally as proved by events of 9/11. The famous philosopher Toffler may have re-defined power but human nature remains the same as it was 2,500 years ago. US Think Tanks and so called experts may advance subtle theses but the underlying conflict is the same i.e. a West which adopted Eastern Christianity and refashioned it as per Barbarian ideals versus an East with a different mindset and a different set of values.

The international capitalist order was challenged by French Revolution and the Communist Revolution in Russia but the power of the imperialistic exploiters could not be broken. Nonetheless without USSR military aid the Arabs could not have survived Israeli hegemonism. This is an irrefutable historical reality.

Long ago the West's present dilemma was summed up by one of its greatest historian Gibbon in the following words "Yet this apparent security should not tempt us to forget that new enemies and unknown dangers may possibly arise from some obscure people, scarcely visible in the map of the world". In the same paragraph Gibbon cited the example of the Arabs who had "languished in poverty and contempt" till the advent of Islam when in Gibbon's words Islam" breathed into those same bodies the soul of enthusiasm".

When modern US thinkers with links with US State decision making and analytical bodies state with confidence that "ideology is no longer fashionable" and that "international terrorism" is the key issue who are they fooling. If this line of thinking is to be followed, whenever any White Man or a Jewish man dies it is terrorism while whenever any non White or Muslim dies this is casualty inflicted in sheer self defence in the war against terrorism. A stooge is a man who was protected by USSR and a King or Emir or a president protected by US Forces or US aid is a perfect patriot.

Take the "Firebombing of Tokyo" on the fateful night of 9/10 March 1945. On that night the US Airforce in the proud words of an American writer "conducted the most destructive air raid in history". Sixteen square miles of Tokyo were destroyed and some 83,793 Japanese civilian were killed mostly by third degree burns while some 40,918 were injured. A US General proudly exclaimed "It made a lot of sense to kill skilled workers". Compare this with US position on 9/11. If for a moment we accept that 9/11 was a great outrage in which some 3,000 were killed not all of them skilled, what was Tokyo Raid of March 1945?

There is a subtle motivation here. An ulterior geopolitical agenda. The West still fears ideology which it abandoned after 1945 in favour of shameless materialism. It fears men who cannot be bought, who have no fear for the tomorrow, who cannot be stopped by a NATO or the wide Atlantic or wider Pacific. USSR may have been a more synthetic state but the men motivated to die without motivated by the CIA pumped dollar via Silent Soldiers is a more dangerous specie. Enters the Asian and African

Collaborator Regimes. Liberal Presidents, subtle Emirs, Egalitarian Kings, all mustered like Sepoy Jahan Khan in the First World War to fight the War against Terror. The Soviets were more naïve if less morally defective than the American decision makers. The Americans seek to accomplish enslavement through more sophisticated methods. Thus one of their intellectuals states in an article that "unlike centuries past, when war was the great arbiter, today the most interesting type of power do not come out of the barrel of the gun".

Today this man says "there is a much bigger pay off in getting others to want what you want". And there is no shortage of collaborators, ambitious men who usurped power whether it was after the downfall of Ottoman Empire with British or French money or in Egypt or Pakistan or in Indonesia.

Somewhere deep inside the US decision makers are at a loss to admit as to how with a 30 Billion USD intelligence budget, 13 Federal Organisations dealing with Intelligence and some 30,000 eavesdroppers

employed by USA's National Security Agency was the Al Qaeda able to strike. Compare 30 Billion USD per year spent since two decades with may be 4 Billion USD lost in 9/11. If the East or the Islamic World has any edge over the West it is in willingness to sacrifice rather than materialism and selfishness.

What the West and particularly the USA fears is not nuclear weapons but men motivated by ideology. Men who cannot be bought like the so many Emirs, Kings and Military Presidents from Morocco till Pakistan.

The world has not changed from Gibbons' times. The New Barbarians as the USA sees the Muslim radicals are more dangerous because they cannot be bought. Because they have operational talent and strategic acumen. Because they do not beg like Sadat for a Camp David but fight with their limbs rather than Stingers. What the US seeks is destruction of ideology which as per one theme presently floated in the so called prestigious National Defence College at Islamabad is no longer fashionable.

This is the Clash of Civilisation and will continue till this world exists or till the USA discovers a new planet where human beings can survive and to which the Americans will migrate after all the mineral resources of this world are exhausted and we are left to die without water or fuel.

If this is so and if low intensity war is the only way in which the conventionally weaker forces can defeat the conventionally stronger forces then so be it. If extremism in thought or ideology is out of fashion and out of favour with USA and its camp followers, so be it. If we are in any case condemned to be sub humans in a world order dominated by the G-7 and have no other recourse but to fight with bomb, dagger or suicide explosive pack then so be it.

Jala kay Mashal-i-Jaan, Hum Junoon-Sifaat Chalay. Jo Ghar ko aag lagaay, hamarey saath chalay.

Agha Amin

Khost suicide bomber's wife 'proud' of husband's mission

Friday, 08 Jan, 2010 ISTANBUL /ANKARA, Jan 7: Turkish police will question the Turkish wife of the Jordanian suicide bomber who killed seven CIA agents at a US base in Afghanistan last month, Anatolia news agency reported on Thursday.

Defne Bayrak will be invited to the city's anti-terror department to answer questions, unnamed police officials told the agency.

Bayrak's husband Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal Al Balawi, said to have been a double agent, blew himself up at a US military base in Khost near the Pakistani border on Dec 30, the deadliest attack against the CIA since 1983.

The couple married in 2001 in Istanbul, where Balawi had been studying medicine since 1995, and moved to Jordan the following year after Balawi graduated, Anatolia said.

Neither of them had criminal record in Turkey, it added.

Bayrak, based in Istanbul with her two daughters since October, said on Wednesday she did not believe her husband worked for any intelligence agency, describing him as "a man who would not even leave the house."

She said that Balawi went to Pakistan to pursue medical studies and told his family he was planning to join them in Turkey.

She said on Thursday her husband regarded the United States as an enemy and she was proud of his mission.

"I am proud of my husband. He has carried out a very important mission in such a war," Bayrak told reporters.

"I think it's impossible that he was an American agent. He was too adversary to work for America. He only could have used America and Jordan to reach his goals."

Bayrak, who holds a degree in journalism, has written and translated books and penned articles for Islamic publications. One of her books entitled "Osama bin Laden: Che Guevara of the East".

Bayrak said she believed her husband was in Afghanistan to pursue his medical studies and she was shocked at news of his death.

Wearing a black chador, she said she learned in a phone call from one of her husband's friends in Pakistan that he had blown himself up at a US base in Afghanistan on Dec 30.

The friend also told her he would send her husband's will and last letter, she said.

"Our last phone call took place about four to six weeks ago and we made contact through the Internet 10 days ago. He told me he would come back to Turkey and would even apply for Turkish citizenship. He would continue his medical studies here," she said.

Meanwhile, Al Qaeda's Afghan wing on Thursday claimed responsibility for the Khost suicide bombing, saying it was revenge for the deaths of their leaders. Earlier, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan also claimed responsibility for the attack.

"He's a very strong character. If he did it, he must have done it on his own will. Nobody can make him do things," Bayrak said.

Balawi had associated with Islamists in the past, but US and Jordanian spy agencies believed he had been successfully 'de-radicalised'.

"I am not the one to decide whether he is a martyr or not. I pray to Allah to accept his martyrdom," Bayrak said. —Agencies Khost suicide bomber's wife 'proud' of husband's mission

Friday, 08 Jan, 2010 09 February, 2010 What Should be Pakistans Afghan Policy What Should be Pakistans Afghan Policy A.H Amin 1. i am based in afghanistan since 2003 and have travelled to all 35 provinces. 2. whatever the USA or NATO may desire, may it be not inviting India or ignoring India , Russia,India and Iran as well as all five central asian republics, as well as Turkey (Uzbek/Turkmen solidarity) regard taliban as a threat and have known as well as secret protocols with non Pashtun population as well as some Pashtun groups about the contingency of US withdrawal from Afghanistan.From what I have assessed there is a general consensus in the above group not to allow a resurgent post US withdrawal Taliban to advance beyond the line SHINDAND-DAIKUNDI-BAMIYANKABUL so as to safeguard interests of non Pashtun/moderate Pashtun/Shia population of Afghanistan. 3. it is a fallacy thus to think that Taliban will get a clean run in case of US withdrawal right till Oxus River.

4. Presently 90 % of Taliban are Pakistan linked/Pro Pakistan as they depend for logistics on Quetta/Pakistani Balochistan.Only some 10 % are in conflict with Pakistani state in FATA and under US drone attacks.However there is a danger that in post US withdrawal situation these good and bad taliban can unite and impose their extremist life view on pakistans western provinces. 5. since the non pashtun and shia population is solidly against taliban the bloc referred to above will always have supporters in afghanistan.this means some 45 % non of total population of non pashtuns and some 15 to 20 % non pashtuns who are moderate. 6. Hard core taliban do not exceed 15 % of afghanistans population with a 30 to 35 % silent majority who they can manipulate. 7. instead of beating the indian drum pakistan should seek trade concessions from afghanistan allowing pakistani trucks free movement to all borders of afghanistan with central asia and iran and a visa free regime while allowing afghan trucks similar concessions and also allow indian trucks free transit through pakistan on the condition that india allows pakistani trucks free transit through india to bangladesh,nepal,burma and sri lanka. 8. in addition pakistan should prevail on the taliban under pakistani influence to respect/guarantee rights of non pashtuns/shias/ismailis.All regarded as sub humans by taliban. agha Death of Idealism Agha Amin 14 February 2010 How Pakistan was destroyed spiritually

www.chowk.com http://www.chowk.com/Views/History/Death-of-Idealism

When we were young our hopes were high and our imagination knew no bounds. Lahore was the centre of brilliant liberal free thinkers and Government College, Islamia College and Forman Christian College had some brilliant professors and similarly outstanding students. Discussion was of international level and the best philosophers in history were quoted and counter quoted. There was Pakistan Times that citadel of intellectual honesty led by the brilliant team of Mian Iftikharuddin and Nawabzada Mazhar Ali Khan. There were indomitable and heavenly poets like Faiz, Jalib and Faraz. The list is long, Safdar Mir, Burney, Tariq Ali, Idris and many more. Karachi had impregnable and priceless political activists like Mairaj Mohammad Khan. Pakistan had students like Tariq Ali who worsted and spiked heavy weight US politicians on the BBC. The NWFP had its own group of intellectuals mostly in Peshawar, Charasadda and Kohat and when the Pashtun combines Pashtun individualism with the ideals of French Revolution and Russian revolution he is simply invincible. Balochistan had indomitable and priceless jewels like Ataullah Mengal, Khair Baksh Marri, Bizenjo, Nawab Akbar Bugti and Gul Khan Naseer. Sindh had ZAB who was matchless and GM Syed who was factional but nevertheless brilliant. It was a galaxy of giants. And then a dark age began in 1958. With sycophants and darbaris like Qudratullah Shahab and Altaf Gauhar. Talent and individualism was destroyed. The civil servants were stripped of their immunity from arbitrary dismissal by Ayub Khan. Pakistan's generals and their darbari civil servants destroyed talent. The process was accelerated in 1977 and refined in 1999 to the highest pitch. Punjab was the worst hit. Being the major province it became a prime target for intellectual castration, intellectual slavery and economic manipulation. Today it is a sorry example of a paid press, leaders

whose only distinction is that they are dirty rich and eat payas and all similar nonsense, court with the generals and talk about democracy after throwing their workers in blast furnaces. Balochistan is a war zone and no Baloch worth his salt wants to have anything to do with the thekedars of Pakistan sitting in Islamabad and Pindi in civvies and uniform. Sindh is divided and factionalised with a sharp urban rural divide, multiplying poverty and the danger of Talibanisation. The NWFP is in shatters with corrupt politicians, with or without beards, and moving towards a new geopolitical arrangement with two choices of being in a Chinese sphere of influence or a US base for a future guerrilla war against China. Kashmir is condemned to be destroyed either by natural calamities or by a final Indo Pak war. All roads lead to chaos and doom. Idealism started dying in 1958 and its death was geared up between 1977 and 1988 and perfected by a cheap social climber in between 1999 and 2008. 13 February, 2010 THE DEVELOPMENT OF TALIBAN FACTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

08 March, 2010 The Next Indo Pak Conflict-Agha H Amin

The Next Indo Pak Conflict Agha H Amin A brother human being Mr Giani 240 was a catalyst for this reflection on an Indo Pak conflict. At some stage historical forces , greater than main or key decision makers take over and take states to war . this has already happened ! no one can reverse the tide ! how it happens and how many major cities may be destroyed is the question ? Mad men on both sides ! Extreme suspicion and paranoia ! Situation compounded by fear and ambiguity ! The pakistani military an army with a state versus india a state with an army makes the role of indian army more limited than the pakistani military who also control foreign policy and internal politics ! The Pakistani military is not really qualified foreign policy nor are they statesman ! But they think that they are both ! This makes it far more dangerous ! The Indian state is at a loss to decipher Pakistani intentions ! Ambiguity leads to confusion and as the adage goes " Fear made men believe in the worst " ! The use of non state actors initiated by the Pakistani military and now in full use by both countries has already gone out of control ! Non state actors now have many masters, both state and non state and this complicates apportioning of blame in any incident !

Above all population,limited resources,a human psyche deforming rapidly into collective neurosis as well as psychosis is complicating the situation. With man basically irrational , decisions military and political are not made with rational reasons.This was discovered by Freud long ago and discussed in detail in his classic " The Future of an Illusion" . As a historian with a unique insight based on personal contact with many key decision makers on the Pakistani side and some interaction with Indians as a contractor in Afghanistan convinces me that a major Indo Pak conflict is not far away. Now the process is in hands of a remote and unknown pilot.Even the major and the key decision makers on both sides cannot reverse it .Although they may decide on the time and space and choice of targets. Why states go to war ? A detailed study of history proves that it is for reasons more irrational than rational but nevertheless compelling reason. All is understood if we start from the premise that man is irrational ! One thing I know .The Indian and Pakistani nukes will not be wasted and rusted in secret storages ! God help us all ! -Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." -Albert Einstein !!! http://www.scribd.com/doc/22151765/History-of-Pakistan-Army-from-1757-to-1971 http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONALANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN

http://www.scribd.com/doc/21686885/TALIBAN-WAR-IN-AFGHANISTAN http://www.scribd.com/doc/22455178/Letters-to-Command-and-Staff-College-Quetta-Citadel-Journal http://www.scribd.com/doc/23150027/Pakistan-Army-through-eyes-of-Pakistani-Generals http://www.scribd.com/doc/23701412/War-of-Independence-of-1857 http://www.scribd.com/doc/22457862/Pakistan-Army-Journal-The-Citadel http://www.scribd.com/doc/21952758/1971-India-Pakistan-War http://www.scribd.com/doc/25171703/BOOK-REVIEWS-BY-AGHA-H-AMIN

18 March, 2010 Pakistans Flawed Afghanistan Outlook

COMMENTS ON VIEW: Pakistan's new Afghanistan outlook —Syed Talat Hussain By Major Agha H Amin (Retired) Comments in BOLD BLACK UNDERLINED-THIS WAS ALSO LATER PUBLISHED BY DAILY TIMES AS AN ARTICLE TITLED PAKISTANS AFGHAN OUTLOOK

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C03%5C25%5Cstory_25-3-2010_pg3_6

AUTHOR HISTORY OF PAKISTAN ARMY FROM 1757 TILL 1971,SEPOY REBELLION OF 1857-59 REINTERPRETED,DEVELOPMENT OF TALIBAN FACTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN-A GEOGRAPHICAL ACCOUNT (ALONG WITH OSINSKI AND DEGEORGES) The upcoming visit to the US by Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani — only partly related to the strategic dialogue process that the Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi is heading — will afford him the opportunity to most comprehensively detail Pakistan's security interests before the entire spectrum of the US leadership. The army chief will have one-of-akind bilateral engagement that would cover not just operation plans in Afghanistan but also the peace regime in South Asia. TALAT HUSSAIN WHILE PAKISTANS FOREIGN MINISTER DOES NOT CONTROL A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF PAKISTANS FOREIGN POLICY,I.E THE AFGHANISTAN AND INDIA POLICY ,THUS THE VISIT OF PAKISTANS ARMY CHIEF TO USA FOR THE STRATEGIC DIALOGUE. AGHA H AMIN STRATEGIC WOULD BE A BIT INFLATED SINCE IN REALITY PAKISTAN DOES THE TACTICAL GARBAGE COLLECTING FOR USA AGHA H AMIN,MAJOR ® (BOLD BLACK UNDERLINED) Specifically on Afghanistan, it should not surprise anyone if General Kayani and his military assistants speak their minds about the situation in a manner that is jarring to some ears in Washington. Pakistan's security establishment is sensing a widening opportunity in Afghanistan to have a greater, louder voice. It is far more confident and clear about the centrality of role in its vast backyard than ever before, and is likely to use this important forum in Washington to state its case.

PAKISTANS MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT HAS SURVIVED AND THRIVED BECAUSE OF AFGHANISTANS WARS.FIRST FROM 1979 WHEN THE PAKISTANI MILITARY JUNTA OF GENERAL ZIA WAS AN UNDOUBTED POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC ORPHAN AND SECOND AFTER 9/11 WHEN THE MUSHARRAF MILITARY JUNTA WAS AGAIN AN ILLEGITIMATE JUNTA RULING A BANANA REPUBLIC OR LETS SAY A WALNUT OR A KADOO REPUBLIC HOW CAN TALAT HUSSAIN LABEL AN INDEPENDENT STATE WITH A GREAT HISTORY AS PAKISTANS BACKYARD ! SEEN IN THIS CONTEXT INDIA MAY CALL PAKISTAN ITS BACKYARD ! HOW CAN PAKISTAN OR FOR THAT MATTER ANY COUNTRY BE ALLOWED TO HAVE A LOUDER VOICE IN AFGHANISTAN.ONE MAY SUGGEST THAT THE AUTHOR IS HINTING TOWARDS HEGEMONISM. ONE MAY STATE THAT AFGHANISTAN CAN PROVE TO BE PAKISTANS ACHILLES HEEL RATHER THAN ANY OPPORTUNITY. AGHA H AMIN

This case is shaped by the new realities informing Pakistan's Afghan policy, which, in more ways than one, is different from the policy of physical and proxy engagement of the 1980s and the 90s. The first and most visible change can be illustrated by recalling two terms from the days of the British Raj in the Subcontinent: the 'forward policy' and its opposite, the 'closed border policy'. TALAT HUSSAIN After 1872, the British administration, fearing that instability in Afghanistan might cause the Russian influence to spread into the realm of their influence, became hands-on in dealing with the affairs of the lands that now form Balochistan and NWFP. They were involved in pretty much everything that happened there: from the feuds among the sardars to their resolution, from the goodwill of the Khan of Kalat to its relations with the local population; and from building alliances and dispensing patronage in the borderlands to the favourites while punishing those who resisted control.

THE BRITISH FORWARD POLICY WAS MAINTAINED RIGHT FROM 1850S RATHER THAN 1872 AS ASSERTED BY SOME ANALYSTS.NOTABLE BEING BRINGING KALAT IN BRITISH SPHERE OF INFLUENCE IN 1854-56 AND THE TREATY OF 1857 WITH AFGHANISTAN. Pakistan treaded the 'forward policy' path in the 1980s and the 90s and the result was a border with Afghanistan that, aside from historical reasons, became a complete thoroughfare for militant activity and covert operations. This has now changed, and effectively Pakistan is now pursuing the equivalent of the 'closed border policy' of the British, which had argued for softer control through more deliberate interaction, but never leaning too much towards the northwest. THE PAKISTANI MILITARY JUNTA OF ZIA WITH THE STATED AIM OF JIHAD AND THE ACTUAL AIM OF POLITICAL SURVIVAL CHOSE TO FOLLOW A POLICY OF ACTIVE INTERFERENCE IN AFGHANISTANS INTERNAL AFFAIRS AS A US AND SAUDI PROXY. For Pakistan, the Pak-Afghan border has acquired a new and added sanctity and strategic significance. While Islamabad continues to wield influence, it is doing so from the baseline of a well-demarcated and tightly controlled border, marked by miles-long ditches, hundreds of check-posts and regular patrolling with the help of horse-mounted sentries and gun-ready vehicle-borne paramilitary troops. This is a huge shift from the days when a deliberate attempt was made to erode the borderlines and allow the monitoring along this long stretch in the northwest to become non-operative. PAKISTANI STATE REDISCOVERED THE SANCTITY OF AFGHAN BORDER AFTER IT WAS BADLY SHAKEN BY A TRIBAL WAR IN ITS FATA AND BLAMED INDIA AND ISRAEL AND EVEN USA AND NATO FOR DOING WHAT PAKISTANI MILITARY JUNTA AND ITS CIVILIAN REMOTE CONTROLLED REGIMES WERE DOING IN AFGHANISTAN FROM 1978 TO 2001 I.E AIDING PROXIES CALLED MUJAHIDEEN IN ORDER TO DESTABILISE AFGHANISTANS DE FACTO GOVERNMENT. The present comprehensive border planning, whose implementation is going to speed up in the coming months, would not have been possible without the Pakistani state's practical writ getting extended to these areas. FATA operations have allowed the Pakistan Army to physically occupy this

strip of Pakistan's land. The US surge in the south of Afghanistan has forced the Pakistani military establishment to enhance its border footprint in Balochistan. ONE IS AT A LOSS TO UNDERSTANDING WHICH COMPREHENSIVE BORDER PLANNING DO SOME PAKISTANI ANALYSTS TALK ABOUT REFERRING TO THE AFGHAN PAKISTAN BORDER WHEN THE ENTIRE PAKISTAN AFGHANISTAN BORDER OF SOME 800 KM PLUS FROM ZHOB TILL KOH I TAFTAN IN BALOCHISTAN HAS NO PAKISTANI TROOPS AND TALIBAN FREELY MOVE BACK AND FRO FROM AFGHANISTAN.PRACTICALLY PAKISTANI MILITARY HAS NO FOOT PRINT IN NORTH BALOCHISTAN AS FAR AS PASHTUN AREAS ARE CONCERNED ND QUETTA HAS BEEN REFERRED TO AS BACKYARD OF KANDAHAR AND HELMAND TALIBANS, ALSO KNOWN AS GOOD TALIBAN IN SOME QUARTERS IN PAKISTAN. THE FATA OPERATION OF PAKISTAN ARMY HAS IN NO WAY ATTACKED THE VAST BULK OF TALIBAN FIGHTING THE US AND NATO FORCES IN KANDAHAR HELMAND ZABUL AND FARAH , EXCEPT POUNDING LOCAL PAKISTAI TALIBAN FIGHTING ONLY AGAINST PAKISTAN ARMY. The impact of these two factors on Pakistan's Afghan policy needs to be properly understood. For the first time in 62 years of our history, Pakistan's security policy makers are in a position to plan and execute strategies in the northwest from a position of actual strength and real life presence on the border. This changes almost entirely the previously available range of options open to them. In the past, the absence of a functioning force in control of the contours of the border required the establishment to extensively rely on shady interlocutors. Religious parties, their madrassa affiliates, local khans, thugs and fixers for rent became strategically relevant. IT IS DEBATABLE TO STATE THAT PAKISTANS MILITARY PRESENCE IN FATA IS A POSITION OF STRENGTH WHEN ALL ALONG FROM OPERATION CURZON IN 1948 TILL 2001 PAKISTANS TRIBAL AREA WAS A VIRTUAL BACKYARD OF THE PAKISTANI STATE AND WAS USED OR MISUSED AS A MAJOR LOGISTIC AND OPERATIONAL BASE TO SUPPORT PAKISTANI PROXIES KNOWN AS MUJAHIDEEN FIGHTING IN AFGHANISTAN FROM 1978 TO 2001.

THE PRESENT PAKISTANI MILITARY PRESENCE IN FATA IS A RETROGRESSIVE STEP WITH NO VICTORY IN SIGHT FOR PAKISTAN AND A LOGISTICIANS NIGHTMARE FOR PAKISTANI MILITARY. AS A MATTER OF FACT THE PAKISTANI STATE HAS BEEN BOGGED DOWN IN TWO MAJOR INSURGENCIES IN ITS FATA AND BALOCHISTAN SINCE 2003.TWO INSURGENCIES WHICH HAVE LITTLE CONNECTION WITH THE VAST BULK OF TALIBAN ACTUALLY FIGHTING THE US AND NATO FORCES IN AFGHANISTANS SOUTH. Also, intelligence officials, whose covert presence and influence was used as a substitute for actual control of the border situation, became policy drivers, whose agendas sometimes second-guessed and surpassed those of their bosses sitting in Islamabad. And, finally, the Taliban had a free run in carving out their zones of influence in and across this entire region. Because Pakistan was not in control of its border, dealing with militarily strong Taliban commanders was not possible. These black holes of the past have increasingly disappeared ever since Pakistan's forces have advanced to the country's northwestern borders, hoisting the national flag that previously flew only in name. The Pakistani establishment is increasingly confident of its ability to make policies that are purely its own and are not derailed by interlocutors or hijacked by intelligence operatives who think themselves super patriots and pretend to know the world better than anybody else. IT'S A FALLACIOUS ASSERTION WHEN SOMEONE STATES THAT PAKISTAN IS IN CONTROL OF ITS ENTIRE WESTERN BORDER WHEN PAKISTANS PARA MILITARY FC HAS A LESS THAN RUDIMENTARY PRESENCE ON PKISTANS 800 KM BORDER WITH AFGHANISTAN FROM ZHOB TO KOH I MALIK SIAH AND PAKISTANS REGULAR ARMY HAS A NEAR ZERO PRESENCE ON THIS BORDER.

It is this determination that actual control of a situation brings which is informing the new confidence General Kayani and his military assistants have as they set out for Washington. They think they can make things happen and can prevent things from happening far more directly and decisively than before in the northwest of Pakistan. But still they will have a lot of talking to do in the US. The country's media elite is caught in a time warp. Farid Zakaria of Newsweek and CNN fame proved last

week that the best selling is not always factually the most compelling. In his opening remarks to the interview of Richard Holbrooke, US's ageing czar on Afghanistan and Pakistan, he admitted that there is a "shift in the approach of the Pakistani military". But he levelled the admission to the ground with the second part of his sentence. "How big a shift, we don't know, but it is a shift..." THE ROLE OF PAKISTAN IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN MAY NOT BE CENTRAL OR DECISIVE AS THE PERCEPTION IN AFGHANISTAN REMAINS THAT PAKISTAN SUPPORTS A CERTAIN PART OF AFGHANISTANS SOCIETY REFERRED AS GOOD TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN.THESE REGARD THE NON PASHTUNS , SHIAS AND ISMAILIS AS SECOND RATE CITIZENS.SEEN IN THIS CONTEXT HOW CAN PAKISTAN ALONE CALL THE SHOTS WHEN IRAN,RUSSIA,CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS AND INDIA SEES PAKISTANI PROXIES IN AFGHANISTAN AS PART OF THE PROBLEM RATHER THAN A SOLUTION.PAKISTAN AND SAUDI ARABIA MAY BE IMPORTANT PLAYERS BUT THEY ARE NOT THE GODS OF AFGHANISTANS GEOPOLITICS. Unfortunately, analysts like him who sit thousands of miles away from the subjects and areas they build their expertise and fame on, are still determining the discourse in the US about Pakistan's policy in this region, which, in essence and in form, has changed much more than the world realises. THIS IS NOT THE VIEWPOINT OF AN ANALYST SITTING THOUSANDS OF MILES AWAY BUT ONE WHO IS BASED IN AFGHANISTAN SINCE 2003 AND HAS TRAVELLED ALL 36 PROVINCES OF AFGHANISTAN AND HAVE WORKED AS A CONTRACTOR AND SECURITY ANALYST WITH MORE THAN 11 COUNTRIES IN AFGHANISTAN AND HAS USED TALIBAN AS SUB CONTRACTORS ON PROJECTS FINANCED BY THE NATO AND US MILITARY. Thursday, March 25, 2010

VIEW: Pak-Afghan relations —Agha H Amin I fail to understand how some of the country’s leading analysts can dub Afghanistan as being Pakistan’s backyard. Afghanistan is an independent state that boasts a great history. Seen in this context, how would Pakistanis feel if India tried to coin Pakistan as its backyard? Since Pakistan’s foreign minister does not control a substantial part of Pakistan’s foreign policy — the part that concerns

Afghanistan and India — Pakistan’s army chief, General Kayani is also visiting Washington for a PakUS strategic dialogue. Pakistan’s military establishment has survived and thrived because of Afghanistan’s ongoing wars since 1979. The first of these wars started in December 1979 and then entered a new phase after 9/11. In both cases, the Pakistani military juntas of Zia and Musharraf who were internationally, as well as domestically, isolated orphans, found godfathers in the US. Pakistan was thus, if not a banana republic, a pistachio republic. The Pakistani military junta of General Zia, with the stated aim of jihad and the real aim of political survival, had chosen to follow a policy of active interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs as a Saudi or US proxy back in 1979-88. One of the country’s leading analysts, Syed Talat Hussain, dubs Afghanistan as Pakistan’s backyard (‘Pakistan’s new Afghanistan outlook’, Daily Times, March 18, 2010). Afghanistan is an independent state that boasts a great history. Seen in this context, how would Pakistanis feel if India tried to coin Pakistan as its backyard? How can Pakistan or, for that matter, any of Afghanistan’s neighbours be allowed to have a louder voice in Afghanistan than the country itself? One may suggest that any analyst who says so is hinting towards crude and anachronistic concepts like ‘strategic depth’. One could hypothesise that Afghanistan might just prove to be Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel if Pakistan continues to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs through proxy disturbances and wars. This may not happen in the immediate future, but when the US withdraws from Afghanistan or if the US decides to embark on another Afghan strategy that views Pakistan as part of the problem rather than a solution. As they say, history does not move in straight lines. Lately, Pakistan’s establishment rediscovered the sanctity of the Afghan border, badly shaken by a tribal war in FATA and blamed India, Israel and even the US and NATO for aiding anti-Pakistan groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). These are all acts that Pakistan itself has actually been doing all along in Afghanistan, right from 1978. One is at a loss to understand which comprehensive border planning Mr Talat Hussain is talking about when referring to the Pak-Afghan border? The entire 800 km Pak-Afghan border in the Pakistani Balochistan province has sparse Pakistani military presence and the Taliban from Kandahar, Helmand and Kabul — where the vast bulk of the US forces are stationed — move freely, back and forth. Here I am referring to the so-called ‘good’ Taliban. The ongoing FATA operation by the Pakistan Army has, in no way, attacked the vast bulk of the Taliban based in Afghanistan, the FATA Taliban being a mere five to six percent of the total mass of the Taliban. Even the US, despite much trumpeting and bravado, has hardly touched any of the Taliban based in south Afghanistan, apart from a few symbolic media efforts like in Marjah. The US policy in Afghanistan seems ambiguous. Does the US see the Taliban in south Afghanistan as future proxies against Iran, Russia, Central Asian Republics and even China? It is again debatable to state that the Pakistani military presence in FATA is a position of strength when all along, from Operation Curzon in 1948, to regular army withdrawals from FATA till the 2003

Musharraf quixotic FATA faux pas, FATA was controlled by the Pakistani state without a single regular soldier. And, above all, this area called FATA was Pakistan’s major logistic and military base in aiding insurgents called the mujahideen who fought against the de facto government in Afghanistan from 1978 to 1992. The hard reality that the Pakistani establishment needs to understand is that the role of Pakistan may not be decisive or even central in Afghanistan’s future. Pakistan needs to concentrate seriously on its internal issues, which are social justice and equality. Not much should be expected from the forthcoming US-Pakistan strategic dialogue. Pakistan needs an internal dialogue, which is sadly non-existent. The writer has authored several books and can be reached at pavocavalry@gmail.com DAILY TIMES WAS WARNED AFTER THIS ARTICLE NOT TO PUBLISH MY ARTICLES BY THE PAKISTANI ESTABLISHMENT

22 March, 2010 What Strategic Dialogue What Strategic Dialogue An army officer gets promoted not by mere ability but by a complicated hole punching process involving some military examinations,a few courses and above all by getting good chits from 12 to 20 different seniors who he encounters in the course of the journey from a subaltern to generalship. Such being generalship summarized , it would not be an exaggeration to state that Pakistans political system was brought to its knees by its generals constantly conspiring to destroy democracy in Pakistan. Much fun is being made of Pakistans political system worldwide by citing the personality of the army chief overriding Pakistans political system in the forthcoming so called strategic dialogue with USA.

This is nothing unusual .USA traditionally likes to do one window solutions with Banana states like Pakistan and it suits the Americans to handpick Pakistans military chief. It is no secret that the USA has played a negative and dirty role in undermining democracy and popular rule in Pakistan by traditionally aiding Pakistans dictators right from 1958. While the Americans are forced to deal with slow moving bulky democracies like India because of fear of China , in case of midgets like Pakistan the Americans are happy dealing with Pakistans military .The real allies of US.Pakistan is only some state but its military rulers or military chiefs have been traditionally USA's best bet. Initially the Americans started with Ayub Khan who was their best collaborator in South Asia.But he fell out of favour and after 1965 found him deserted by his spiritual father called USA.He made false professions that he wanted friends not masters after his master had fired him . He was removed by a grand student agitation in 1968-69 and Pakistans second military ruler Yahya Khan became USA's darling albeit for a short time.His holding of general elections on population basis made Pakistans civil military and political elites worst nightmare a reality i.e holding elections on direct adult franchise, one man one vote.The hated Bengalis would lead Pakistan ! The result was war and secession and the 1971 defeat for Pakistan Army. Mr ZA Bhutto was regarded as a dangerous adventurer by the Americans.They never forgave him for advising the Arabs to impose the Oil Embargo.He was removed with a US financed agitation centering in Karachi and Lahore with a military chief handpicked by USA much earlier while he was on course in USA in mid 1950s. After 1977 all Pakistani governments were puppets of Pakistans military , sometimes known as

Troika , sometimes corps commanders and sometimes National Security Council. Nawaz Sharif made a heroic attempt in 1997-99 to reduce Pakistans militaty to size.He proved successfully to be a naval mine in destroying Admiral Mansur and a successful anti tank mine in removing the tankman Jahangir Karamat but his third mine layin attack was pre-empted by the clever and resolute gunner Mahmud who ensured that gunner chief Musharraf becomes Pakistans chief executive in 1999. Musharraf was USA's darling after 9/11 and his loyalty to his master was phenomenal although later research proves that his U turn in reality was a double U turn and he successfully hunted with the US hound and ran with the Islamist wolves. Rash as a man Musharraf played too many times with his luck and was not caught but he blundered when he ordered the political and possibly physical elimination of Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006. Now overconfident Musharraf drove his handpicked chief justice in such a corner that the chief justice had no choice but to fight back for his very own survival.This gesture of desperate self defence was glorified in Pakistan as lawyers movement and Musharrafs luck finally ran out. Somewhere unwittingly in removing his hand picked CJ Musharraf gave his opponents a reason to rally.Had the Chief Justice been a Sindhi , no civil movement would have taken place.Where after all was Pakistans civil society when Sajjad Ali Shah was removed ? Fate forced Musharraf to negotiate with the PPP and events forced Musharraf and his generals to negotiate the controversial NRO.In signing the NRO the Pakistani generals and Musharraf was not alone in NRO , lost all credibility as a force against financial corruption in Pakistans political system. By a gory chain of events Benazir was removed , some say for not honouring her secret agreement with powers that control Pakistan external and internal.

BBs successor Mr Asif Zardari was a man with limited credibility.This suited Pakistans generals ideally in regaining their lost credibility. A secret but well coordinated campaign was started by known journalists notorious for links with the military and the military intelligence.The Pakistani judiciary historically a conservative group in league with Pakistans military and civil service also joined the attack on Zardari , using the right reasons but motivated by the wrong motivation. All Pakistans so called civil rights movement came to a zero end.Note that Pakistans so called civil society did not launch any movement when Nawab Akbar Bugti was murdered.But when a judge with the name Chaudhri came under fire this civil society was vibrant ? Now once again Pakistans political system is a laughing stock of the world.The Americans are a party to it , be it placing Pakistans army chief in the American Jewish ranking of top 100 people in the world or be it the favourite man of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates. The dangerous part of the issue is that the more Pakistan tilts in direction of being an army with a state,the greater would be the chances of Pakistans Balkanisation.Because the army is only one province while Pakistan is a multi ethnic state. If this trend continues Pakistans Army may be just confined to Punjab alone.Yes with all the nukes but little else.Perhaps this suits the USA also and perhaps this is USAs game plan. One is at a loss to understand what the so called strategic dialogue is all about . A strategic dialogue in which the whole world makes fun of Pakistans puppet democracy and glorifies Pakistans army chief. A strategic dialogue in which no Pakistani politician is in the lead.

It is time that the USA openly declare that they regard Pakistan as an army with a state rather than a state with an army. What would be achieved in this strategic dialogue.The USA will not be able to nominate Pakistans as its heir in Afghanistan.How can the Americans do it when they have nominal control over Afghanistan. The hard fact is that Pakistan is deeply divided b ethnicity , by ideology and by classes.War with India is being made more and more imminent by USA by playing on Pakistans fears. The final button and override is now with a pilot called history and Pakistans generals and politicians or even Indias general and politicians mere pawns in the game. The USA sees a coming Indo Pak conflict as a good opportunity to dominate the region with both India and Pakistan exhausted and on their knees. The US Pakistan strategic dialogue is a grand mockery of Pakistans political system and must be accepted as such. When Pakistans history is written many years after its demise the historians would agree on one point at least hopefully .That Pakistan was destroyed by its generals !

24 March, 2010 MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT AFGHANISTAN

MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT AFGHANISTAN

A.H Amin

Afghanistan has been the subject of misconceptions par excellence as far as Pakistani analysts and Pakistani policy makers are concerened. First it is a misconception to state that Pakistan has all the cards to dictate the future policy in Afghanistan. While it is true that a large number of Taliban in South Afghanistan , depend on Pakistani states largesse in relying on Quetta and South Balochistan as a logistic base.True that Pakistan is the main trading partner of Afghanistan. However there are counter arguments to these facts. Afghanistans north and this means some 50 % of the country has a population which feels that Taliban are Pakistani proxies.This north does not depend on Pakistan for trade.If Pakistani cement is the main commodity in Jalalabad ,Russian Iranian and Uzbek Cement is the main construction commodity in Mazar ,Kunduz and Herat. The involvement of Pakistan inside Afghanistan has been rather heavy since 1978.Pakistan became the base of Afghan insurgents from mid 1978 some one and half years before the Soviet invasion in December 1979.Since then Pakistan and particularly its military have used Afghanistan and Afghan war to get economic and military aid from USA,Saudi Arabia and many other NATO states. Pakistani analysts are attaching too much hope to US cold shouldering India.The USA itself has limited leverage and influence in Afghanistan.The countrys south is overflowing with Pakistan biased Taliban , also known as good Taliban in Pakistan.Taliban who have never

been attacked by the Pakistani military.The countrys west contains Iran related groups ever keen to IEDise US military vehicles.The countrys north contains Russian linked groups. Afghanistans plus 60 % bureaucracy civil and military was trained in USSR and is formly anti US and anti Pakistani military.These are the decision makers at the final level as policy decisions finally go in their hands. Pakistani analysts have floated another impossible theory that Pakistans ISI has won over the Northern Alliance.Nothing can be farther from the truth.The Northern Alliance understands the Pakistani security establishment better than any one.They know how Pakistani security institutions went to the last extent in destroying the Northern Alliance militarily and even politically from 1994 to 2001.How Ahmad Shah Massoud was fighting cornered in Khoja Bahauddin and only with Russian,Tajik and Iranian help. The Northern Alliance understands that Pakistani policy in Aghanistan has to be Pashtun centric and Fundamentalist centric as these are the policy dynamics that Pakistan cannot alter because of political as well as geopolitical reasons.Only Islam would sell in the South Afghanistan Pashtuns and Pashtuns are the ethnic group which the Pakistani establishment cannot afford to ignore , at the peril of Pakistans Balkanisation. There is another geographical misconception in Pakistani analysts that the Chah Bahar Nimroz route is "much closer to the major Afghan cities than Karachi" as fallaciously stated by Manzur Ejaz in his article in Daily Times and published without conformation by Daily Times. Even a child can plot on a basic atlas and find out that the Nimroz route is longer than the Karachi Kandahar route for any major Afghan city including Heart,Kandahar,Kabul,Mazar except Zaranj which is a village like Afghan town on the border.Further this route is heavily dominated by Pakistan biased Taliban and heavy armed escorts are required even during day time.Geographys dictate which even the mighty Americans cannot change is that unless

plate movements severely alter the earths map the route Karachi Kandahar will remain Afghanistans shortest route to the sea. Pakistani analysts are phenomenally ignorant about Afghanistans transit trade.The main issue in Afghanistans transit trade with Pakistan is not distance from ports,which makes Pakistan Afghanistans best preference for eternity but Pakistani bureaucracy which delays by design Afghan goods at Karachi and all the way to the border. Thus since 20 years Afghans have preferred the 1200 Km plus longer Bandar Abbas Islam Qila Herat route for their transit trade. Afghanistan will survive and prosper as an independent state provided its neighbours i.e Iran,Pakistan,Central Asian Republics and above all Russia leave it alone.Geopolitical relatities dictate that this will not be the case.Afghanistan has remained the battle ground between USA and Russia,between USA and Iran,between Pakistan and India and so on. The differences between the Taliban and Northern Alliance are not only ideological but ethnic and sectarian when we include the Shias and Ismailis of Northern Alliance (a minority though). The Russians ,Indians and Iranians will not accept any US imposed solution on Afghanistan,civil war will recommence and Taliban will not get a clean run till Oxus River. US largesse,inviting Pakistan to strategic dialogue,ignoring Indians or the bulky Saudis would not solve this issue. Two options are possible .One that the neighbours stop interfering.Utopian and unlikely.Second that Afghanistan is divided with a North with Northern Alliance and Pashtuns allied to Northern Alliance,a Taliban South and a Baloch Autonomous region in the west all along the Iran Afghanistan border to act as a cordon sanitaire for stopping Iranian

interference in Afghanistan and basic rights to Afghanistans Baloch regarded as Dravidians by Pashtuns,Iranians and Uzbeks.

02 April, 2010

GRAND LIES AND CONTRADICTIONS ABOUT AFGHANISTAN

01 June, 2010

TEN PHASE HISTORY OF INDO PAK MUSLIMS

TEN PHASE HISTORY OF INDO PAK MUSLIMS BY

MAJOR AGHA H AMIN (RETIRED) I find analysis of the Indo Muslim history by singling out extremism or Ahmadis or Mullahs as superficial and a classic case of losing oneslf in trees rather than seeing the whole wood or mosaic of many woods from a classic vantage point. I hold the view that much of responsibility of the present ongoing Muslim extremism with the so called educated and feudal classes of Indo Pak Muslims.

PHASE ONE MUSLIMS ATTACK INDIA AND FINALLY SUBJUGATE MOST OF IT 711 AD TO 1600 Muslims attacks on India start in 711 by Arabs.A foothold is established in Sindh and South Punjab then known as Multan. Muslim attacks under Turks start from around 1000 AD first major attacker being Mahmud of Ghazni and a Muslim kingdom being established in Lahore and later at Delhi by Ghauri general Aibak in 1206. Expansion and conquest of India by Tughlaqs ,various Delhi Sultans and Mughals till 1605 by Akbar. Consolidation of Mughal Empire by Jahangir and Shahjahan. PHASE TWO Muslim Primacy is challenged 1670-1737 The first serious challenge to Muslim primacy came in person of Sivaji in 1670.Sivaji established a successful blue print of military success against Muslim military power long before Indira Gandhis so

called epic triumph in 1971 in a situation in which the odds were far higher against him than in 1971. Without doubt the real reason of the decline of Mughal Empire was Sivajis and his successors guerrilla wars from 1670 to 1737 when the Marathas raided suburbs of Delhi. Between 1737 and 1761 the Marathas dominated the Muslim political centre of Delhi and after 1770 till 1803 it was the Marathas who controlled Delhi and the Muslim primacy in India after 1770 had ceased to exist. The Muslims of Delhi were however saved by the private army of English East India Company in 1803 , as were the Muslims of Punjab and Frontier in 1845 and 1849. PHASE THREE The Muslims re-discover Islam 1761 to 1857 as their supremacy is challenged and India is conquered by English East India Company While Aurangzebs enforcement of Islam was act of a monarch , Maratha occupation of Delhi and Sikh occupation of Punjab and Frontier did produce a significant Islamic political reaction in intellectual terms as signified by Shah Waliullah and Syed Ahmad Barelvis Jihad Movement. Although Syed Ahmad failed in mortal terms he established a blue print of Holy War , since then replicated in various forms. PHASE FOUR The Muslim centred 1857 Rebellion is defeated and Muslim Elites are faced with the European system of democracy and competitive examinations and their re-discovery of Islam as a political weapon -1858-1940

Faced with a system of European education , and competitive examinations the Indo Pak Muslim elite under Syed Ahmad Khan re-discovered Islam.They lobbied for job quotas successfully on communal basis although Syed Ahmad dismissed many Islamic concepts like Miraj etc. Using Islam as a tool of class interests the Muslim elite lobbied for a separate political entity which came to be known as separate electorate based on votes according to religious divisions,Muslims voting for Muslims and Hindus voting for Hindus. The British found the Muslims a useful tool in their Roman policy of Divide et Impera. PHASE FIVE The Muslim Elite devise a geographical slogan known as Pakistan to achieve a position of unfair advantage in which division of India would eliminate non Muslims from a new Muslim state Till 1940 the Muslims had no clear slogan although the British top bureaucrats notably O Dwyer had already given the concept of an autonomous Pakistan like Muslim province in North west India in 1930s. At Lahore in 1940 the Muslim solution to the Indian British Hindu political problem was devised as Pakistan. The Congress had already annoyed the British with non cooperation in the war effort in 1939 and was punished by the British by adopting a favourable view towards a possible division of India. PHASE FIVE PAKISTAN IS CREATED AND THE WEST WING MUSLIM ELITE STRUGGLES TO SIDELINE THE MAJORITY EAST WING MUSLIMS FROM POLITICAL SUPREMACY BY VIRTUE OF HAVING A PREPONDERANT POSISTION IN THE ARMY ,INDUSTRY AND CIVIL SERVICE-1947-56

The Muslim elite thanks to division of India gained an unfair advantage in Industry by occupying the business vacuum created by departure of Hindus , Memons and other Gujrati castes and Chinioti Punjabis in the forefront. These in league with the majority West wing bureaucrats manoeuvred to create unfair monopolies known as 21 families etc. The West Pakistani politicians used the mili.tary and civil service and threats of dissolution of provincial assembly into making the East Pakistani Bengalis their 55 % majority into surrender to a 50 % parity level in 1956 PHASE SIX PAKISTAN REDUCED TO A WEST WING DOMINATED STATE AND A PUNJAB DOMINATED STATE BY ONE UNIT AND 1956 CONSTITUTION WITH THE SAME STATUS CARRIED FORWARD BY IMPOSTION OF MARTIAL LAW IN 1958 LASTING TILL 1969 The West Wing politicians used an unfair majority in military and civil service into making the Bengalis surrender their majority in poulation into a parity.This was not seen as sufficient and still fearing a progressive government the West Wing majority army imposed martial law in 1958.After 1958 the East Wing was literally reduced to a colony by the West Wing. PHASE SEVEN THE BENGALIS DISCOVER THAT THEY WERE FOOLED BY THE UP AND PUNJAB DOMINATED MUSLIM ELITE IN NAME OF RELIGION FROM 1906 TILL 1969 AND DECIDE TO SECEDE The East Pakistani Bengalis realised soon after 1947 that they would not be allowed a political voice.This feeling intensified after 1969 Martial law was parity in votes was replaced by actual representation as per population.

The result was the 1971 Crisis as a result of which the country called Pakistan was divided into Pakistan and Bangladesh. PHASE EIGHT AN ATTEMPT TO REFORM THE SOCIETY WITH MIXING SOCIALISM AND POPULISM WITH ISLAM ZA Bhutto a great leader attempted reform by nationalisation of industry and land reforms. He was misled by characters like Hafeez Pirzada who influenced him into declaring Ahmadis non Muslims. His progressive regime was sabotaged by an unwilling military and civil service class from within and international sabotage by US who was angryb with him because of his role in the oil embargo of Arabs and his attempts to pursue a military nuclear programme PHASE NINE ISLAM IS RE-DISCOVERED AS A POLITICAL TOOL 1977-2001 As a reaction of ZA Bhuttos political reforms the urban classes in Lahore,Karachi and Pakistan reacted to create a psuedo religious centrist alliance known as PNA demanding an Islamic system known as Nizam e Mustafa. The US aided this political movement. The Afghan leftist coup of 1978 brought in the USSR and the USA also picked Islam as a useful tool of politics and state craft. Pakistan was Islamised to suit the military junta of Zia then acting as a political vassal of USA and Saudi Arabia in the Soviet Afghan war.

The school syllabus was reformed and Islamic ideas of Jihad projected a propaganda tool. After the USSR withdrawal the same Islamic card was used like a chewing gum by Pakistans military in Kashmir and post 1989 Afghan civil war. PHASE TEN Islam is no longer fashionable and Pakistan needs to be more secular- September 2001 till todate Kicked by USA and also given carrots of US Dollars Pakistans shameless rulers abandoned Islam as a political tool.As shamelessly as they had picked it in 1977 ! After 9/11 Pakistans military rulers decided to abandon ideology at least outwardly. The result was Pakistani civil war between Islamic Extremists and the Pakistani state which continues till to date. CONCLUSIONS Islam was used as a political tool by Muslim elites to achieve their class interests all along from 1858b till 1901. This inadvertently and without a design created Islamic extremism in Pakistan.While Muslim elites were fooling Muslim masses in order to achieve class advantages the Muslim common man actually started believing that Pakistan is an Islamic ideological state.This however was not the aim of the Muslim elite. Jihad was picked as a useful tool by the Pakistani military for institutional aims.When under US pressure this contradiction was exposed Pakistan became witness of a civil war.

Islamic Extremism as witnessed today is result of misuse of Islam as a political tool by Muslim elite and educated classes.The Islamic extremists did not produce this situation but were produced as a result of this promiscuous mixing of political opportunism with religion. The Pakistani elite classes including the so called secular PPP used religion as a tool to get political mileage , most notorious of this effort being the constitutional second ammendment declaring Ahmadis as non Muslims in 1974.The direct result of this is the present Ahmadi massacres in Lahore. The Pakistani military and all politicians shamelessly used Islam as a political tool by embarking on a full timer so called Jihad in Afghanistan,Kashmir ect.This includes all Pakistani political and military regimes from 1977 till 2001 including Benazir Bhutto. The present political and military crisis in Pakistan is a direct result of misuse of religion as a cheap political slogan by Pakistans so called most educated Military and Political Classes. The hard reality is that so called Islamic extremists have a large number of sympathisers in Pakistan and are not a small minority as many in Pakistan would like the world to believe. The final result of this ongoing crisis may be Pakistans Balkanisation in the next few years.

06 June, 2010

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE US STRATEGIC PLAN IN AFPAK---TIME LINE OF US PLAN FOR AF PAK WAR

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE US STRATEGIC PLAN IN AFPAK BY AGHA H AMIN US STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES SET UP BY THE DOD/PENTAGON/STATE DEPARTMENT/CIA/DIA NOTE THAT OBAMA IS JUST A CLEVER SOCIAL CLIMBER MIXED BREED KICKED UPWARDS WITH NO CONTROL OVER ANYTHING 1. THE OBJECTIVE IS NOT AL QAEDA , TALIBAN OR BIN LADEN. 2. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO ATTACK IRAN , RUSSIAS SOFT CENTRAL ASIAN STATE OIL RICH BELLY 3. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO DESTANBILISE CHINESE SINGKIANG WITH AN ISLAMIST INSURRECTION 4. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN 5. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO CONSOLIDATE THE US INDIA BASE AGAINST CHINA AFTER PAKISTAN IS BALKANISED ON GROUND SITUATION

1. THE OBJECTIVE IS NOT AL QAEDA , TALIBAN OR BIN LADEN----DRONING OF RANDOM TARGETS

GOES ON TO CONVINCE PUBLIC OPINION AND TO GIVE RICH FRIENDS IN DEFENCE INDUSTRY MORE AMMUNITION AND EQUIPMENT CONTRACTS,US TROOPS CONSOLIDATE THE OIL TRANMISSION ROUTE ON HERAT KANDAHAR ROAD---NO REAL OFFENSIVE IS LAUNCHED AGAINST ANY TALIBAN,THEY ARE THE GOOD REASON WHY THE USA IS IN AFGHANISTAN SO WHY ELIMINATE THEM.US THIRD PARTY LOGISTICS CONTRACT IS A MAJOR STEP IN CONSOLIDATING US PROXIES INPAKISTAN.US POLICY IN PRESSURISING PAKISTAN BY DRONE ATTACKS AND FORCING PAKISTAN TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION IN FATA IS DESIGNED TO DESTABILISE PAKISTAN

SO THAT FINAL GROUNDS FOR PAKISTANS DENUCLEARISTAION ARE SET IN PLACE.US TOOLS IN THIS EXERCISE ARE US CONTRACTORS IN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN,US BRITISH SECURITY COMPANIES IN PAKISTAN,US OR EX US BANKERS AND CORPORATE EXECUTIVES IN PAKISTAN SUBVERTING THE PAKISTANI CIVIL AND MILITARY BRASS.
2. THROUGH THE 2008 ELECTIONS THE US HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED A POLITICAL REGIME CHANGE

IN PAKISTAN WHILE THE PAKISTANI MILITARY SAFEGUARDING PAKISTAANS NUCLEAR ASSETS IS NEXT US TARGET.
3. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO ATTACK IRAN , RUSSIAS SOFT CENTRAL ASIAN STATE OIL RICH BELLY---SO FAR

A MISERABLE FAILURE WITH US PROXIES BEING CHECKED IN CENTRAL ASIA , IRAN AND CHINA . HOWEVER SECRET TRAINING OF PROXIES GOES IN US BASES IN AFGHANISTAN
4. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO DESTANBILISE CHINESE SINGKIANG WITH AN ISLAMIST INSURRECTION---A

LOGICAL OBJECTIVE BUT THEN THERE IS THE INDEPENDENT WILL OF THE ENEMY BACKED WITH WMDS,CHINA IS NO IRAQ
5. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO DENUCLEARISE PAKISTAN---PROCEEDING AT GOOD PACE ALTHOGH NO

MAJOR SUCCESS HAS BEEN ACHIEVED--THE PAKISTANI CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT IS FULLY ON US PAYROLL WHILE THE PAKISTANI MILITARY MAY TAKE 2 TO 5 YEARS TO BECOME A FULL TIME US CHATTEL
6. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO CONSOLIDATE THE US INDIA BASE AGAINST CHINA AFTER PAKISTAN IS

BALKANISED-----THE PROGRAM IS BALKANISE PAKISTAN WITH AN INDEPENDENT BALOCH STATE , PASHTUNISTAN,CITY STATE OF KARACHI , SINDHU DESH , A DENUCLEARISED PAKISTAN WITH ONLY PUNJAB , A NORTHERN AREAS CONTROLLED BY CHINA ---THIS IS TO TAKE FIVE TO TEN YEARS----WITH PAKISTAN BALKANISED US AND INDIA WILL HAVE COMPLETE CONTIGUOUS BASE AGAINST CHINA AND RUSSIA. ANALYSIS

1. PRESENT US STRATEGIC POSITION IS SILENT REGISTRATION OF TARGETS IN PAKISTAN , IRAN,

CHINESE SINGKIANG AND RUSSIAN DOMINATED CENTRAL ASIA.BY TRYING TO BASE ITS LOGISTICS ON RUSSIAN EX SOVIET CENTRAL ASIAN STATES THE USA IS TRYING TO BRING ECONOMIC

BENEFITS TO CENTRAL ASIA SO THAT RUSSIAN HOLD CAN BE WEAKENED.HOWEVER RUSSIA IS CONVINCED THAT US MUST FAIL IN AFGHANISTAN AND HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE EFFORTS TO AID ANTI US FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN THROUGH IRAN AND THROUGH CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS.
2. US FORCES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO CONTROL AFGHANISTAN UNLESS PAKISTAN IS BALKANISED

AND THIS WOULD TAKE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 YEARS.THE FIRST STATE TO SECEDE WITH US SUPPORT WOULD BE BALOCHISTAN.THIS IS SO BECAUSE THE BASE OF ANTI US FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN IS PAKISTANI BALOCHISTAN AND RUSSIA , IRAN AND CHINA HAVE A COMBINED INTEREST IN MAKING THE USA BLEED IN AFGHANISTAN THROUGH PAKISTANI PROXIES KNOWN AS TALIBAN.WHEN PAKISTAN AIDS TALIBAN IN AFGHANISTAN IT IS ACTUALLY DEFENDING PAKISTAN
3. THE FIXING MANOEUVRE WOULD BE A US MANIPULATED INDIA PAKISTAN WAR LEAVING PAKISTAN

SEVERELY DAMAGED AND AN INDIA LESS DAMAGED FOLLOWED BY PAKISTANS DENUCLEARISATION.
4. CHINA RUSSIA AND IRAN ARE THE US OPPONENTS .THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO THROW A

SPANNER IN US PLANS.
5. THEN THERE IS THE UNFORESEEN FACTOR X .

12 June, 2010

Pakistans Grand Political Contradictions
Pakistans Grand Political Contradictions Agha H Amin

basic aim of pakistan was to eliminate the hindus or sikhs who did not let the UP and Punjabi Muslims compete in ICS and other examinations. first a man called syed ahmad afraid of benaglis wanted quotas in the exam.a hindu pandit from UP first led the delegation to viceroy to ask for job quotas. the muslim landlords who were heavily in debt also wanted the hindu money lenders dominated the muslim industrialists and business men like adamji etc also wanted a position of unfair advantage. it was all about class interests but the common man was mobilised by a slogan pakistan ka matlab kia La Ilaha Illalah , very clever. Hundreds of thousands died in Punjab and Bengal migrations and Hafeez Jullundhuri was forced to say QAFLAY LUT GAYAY , BARBAD HO GAYYAY TO KIA HUA MUTAMAIN HAIN QAAFLA SALAAR APNAY KAAM SAY On partitions eve Islam was dumped and regarded as a personal matter whereas in 1946 Election Campaign it was the central matter. Only 5 % of Indias population voted in 1946 and partition was done. After partition Islam was again forgotten with short outbursts in 1953 , 1965,1971 and 1977. In 1977 the reactionary classes led by urbanites of Karachi and Lahore combined in name of Nizam i Mustafa.

In july 1977 the Pakistani military discovered Islam as it wanted Saudi aid and after 1979 US aid , all in name of Islam. Islamabad which was a modest wilderness with old cars suddenly became prosperous after 1979 with money in name of Islam and Jihad. Islam was dropped again after 1988, picked after sanctions were imposed again in 1990s and dropped again after 9/11.

The National Defence College Islamabad actually studied a theme in 2002 that ideology was no longer fashionable. Today we have our armies fighting a contradiction just like the Red Army was fighting the so called Mujahids. Farce par excellence ! All shall come to a grand diasaster ! Pakistan is a joke and all because its higher and middle classes shamelessly used Islam to get class advantages. How to sum up Pakistans history ? Opportunism par excellence And where are Pakistans liberals ? How many Mullahs were in Pakistans National Assembly that declared the Ahmadis non Muslims in 1974 ? Hardly any ! All done by Pakistans most educated and brightest sons ? What a farce !

07 July, 2010

Pakistan-The State with Dual Controls

Understanding Pakistan's Strategic Chaos UNDERSTANDING WHAT REALLY HAPPENED AFTER 5TH JULY 1977 AGHA H AMIN 5TH JULY 2010 This article written with great conviction was sent to all major Pakistani newspapers ! But afraid of the army no one published it ! Even the so called liberal Salman Taseer who also played a policy of playing safe ! Yet this could not save that clever man from being gunned down !

There is no doubt that Pakistan will be destroyed ! It only a question

of how many more years !

Also below this article is a strategic analysis carried out later but now its part two. It was 4th July 1977, Lieutenant General Iqbal Khan told his headquarters staff that at last Mr Z.A. Bhutto and the opposition alliance PNA had reached an amicable peace settlement. My father, a newly promoted brigadier, was one of his staff. On 5th July 1977 General Zia, the army chief, handpicked by PM Z.A. Bhutto (against the very advice of the Military Secretary's Branch) delivered the fatal blow; not only to democracy but to Pakistan's future. Martial Law was imposed on 5th July 1977. While Ayub Khan, although a usurper, had separated the military from politics, Zia's system of things imposed the military over politics. That system unfortunately carries on until today. Zia's worst action was turning Pakistan into a US-Saudi military base against the USSR. This he did not because the USSR was a threat to Pakistan but because Zia's military dictatorship was under threat from Pakistan's masses and political forces. The use of non state actors as state proxies was firmly adopted by Zia as a cheap tool of foreign policy and this policy was reversed by no one, including the so-called very secular Benazir or the not so liberal Nawaz Sharif.

Foreign policy - at least the India and Afghanistan policy became an exclusive affair of Pakistan's military establishment. No civilian has reversed this policy to date. The political fabric of the country was deeply and fatally infiltrated, and all politicians became tools of blackmail by the state security apparatus. Benazir Bhutto, although a popular leader, was compromised in such a way that when she came into power in 1988 and 1993 she dared not interfere with the military establishment regarding Pakistan's India or Afghanistan policies. A military relationship with the USA and Saudi Arabia was established which bypassed Pakistan's political organs as well as the US Congress or Senate and the Department of Defense. CIA and State Department bureaucrats established a direct hotline with Pakistan's military establishment. This relationship survived despite Clinton and remains to this day. Sectarian and ethnic divisions were encouraged, thus the creation of Sipah I Sahaba, MQM, the baradari culture in Punjab thanks to the 1985 non party elections etc. The judiciary was successfully coerced into submission and dissenting judges removed by blackmail and persecution. This has remained a fact despite the Iftikhar Chaudhry phenomena - which was a case of a clash of egos rather than a clash of principles - as the valiant judge took a stand when pushed against the wall over a matter of personal survival, having earlier supported the same dictator in distorting Pakistan's constitution.

Religious intolerance was fine tuned and Ahmadis and Shias targeted. A strict bar on promotion of Ahmadi officers beyond colonel level was imposed in the military which continued from 1977 to 1992. Hadood laws were introduced and done in words of a direct participant IG Ch Sardar Ali so that Saudis could be pleased and milked into giving Pakistan financial aid. The sad part is that most of Zia's actions were not reversed. Benazir came into power in 1988 and 1993 under a secret agreement and abdicated control over a major part of Pakistan's foreign and security policy to the Pakistani military establishment. In 2008 also the PPP was allowed into power by NRO under a shady secret deal and, to date, the PPP has no control over Pakistan's foreign or security policy despite being the de jure ruling party of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif came near ZAB in being a strong political leader when he sacked a naval and a military chief, but was chastised with years in exile and a compromised return to Pakistan under a secret protocol. The new Nawaz Sharif is a weaker Nawaz Sharif represented by a more pragmatic Shahbaz Sharif in power, whose first rule of business is to ask the military before doing anything. Thus while Zia's mortal remains were burnt over the Hindu Shamshan Ghat over Basti Lal Kamal on that historic 17th August 1988, his system remains in force with a Pakistan ruled by politicians in name and a foreign and security policy firmly in the hands of Pakistan's military establishment. This ideally suits the USA, the Saudis and Pakistan's military establishment.

The gist of the problem is that Pakistan's civilian political leadership has no clue or control over what Pakistan is doing in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Baluchistan, or the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). This explains why the USA has secret agreements with Pakistan's military establishment. It's safe, it's practical and it's a one window operation! The weak link in this whole chain is the misuse of Islam by Pakistan's civil and military elite since 1947. The bluff was called in 2001 and Pakistan is now in the grip of a civil war (since 2003) with no end in sight. A war which has the potential of destroying Pakistan unless good captains can deal successfully with the immensely adverse wind and waves. The fatal question is can such an anachronistic arrangement last despite being supported by so called demi-gods like the USA and Saudi Arabia? The answer is no, as proven by Pakistan's ongoing civil war in the killing fields of Afghanistan, FATA,the GHQ attack etc ! Pakistans generals and their apologists can give a million excuses but the hard fact is that Pakistan Army is a master in destroying Pakistan as they brilliantly did under Ayub in East Pakistan and under Musharraf in Balochistan !

5 July 2010
27 July, 2010

GRAND STRATEGIC CONTRADICTIONS IN US MILITARY STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN-BY AGHA H AMIN

01 August, 2010

Pakistans Role in war on Terror-Myth and Reality

Pakistans Role in War on Terror

Pakistans role the Afghan War being waged post 9/11 has been ambiguous all along. While Pakistans military establishment which has controlled Pakistans Afghan and India foreign policy since 1977 saw Afghanistanas its backyard and a training ground for Pakistani non state proxies,Pakistans military junta was forced to be a US ally at gunpoint in the post 9/11 period.

It is funny hearing about claims of Pakistani state about war on terror and losses it has suffered ! A brief examination of claims :--We supported the USA and lost as a result many billions Pakistan agreed to support USA when forced with an ultimatum . From 2001 to 2008 Pakistani economoy witnessed record growth and no losses as claimed. The losses that Pakistani economy suffered came after 2008 as a result of internal failures like failure to have a workable energy policy dating from 1970s , political infighting etc. Pakistan gained a major economic advantage out of it and the post 9/11 Pakistan saw a major economic growth all along thans to US aid and Afghan war from November 2001 till as late as early 2008.

An article by Pakistans leading economist Dr Ashfaque thus stated “Pakistan positioned itself as one of the four fastest growing economies in the Asian region during 2000-07 with its growth averaging 7.0 per cent per year for most of this period. As a result of strong economic growth, Pakistan succeeded in reducing poverty by one-half, creating almost 13 million jobs, halving the country's debt burden, raising foreign exchange reserves to a comfortable position and propping the country's exchange rate, restoring investors' confidence and most importantly, taking Pakistan out of the IMF Program.”

Note that before becoming an ambiguous US ally in post 9/11 , Pakistan was under sanctions before 9/11 and its economy was near collapse. Real reason why Pakistani economy is bankrupt 1. Tax evasion by rich . Tax as part of GDP has declined in last 20 years from 18 %to 9 % of GDP. 2. Massive exploitation and monopolies where 2 % own 80 % of wealth and pay nominal taxes while the 98 % population with 20 % wealth is taxed by taxes on fuel electric and utilities to raise 91 % of GDP. 3. Massive corruption by government officials who as per admission of ex Finance Minister Tareen are involved in corruption of 50 Billion Rs per year.

Why should we (Pakistani Establishment) be supporting Taliban against whom our troops have suffered 5000 casualties and our civilians more than 10,000 ? This is because Taliban groups attacking Pakistan Army are attacking Pakistani military and civilians as revenge against their non combatants and combatants killed by Pakistani military in 2003-9 and these Taliban groups have little or nominal connection with vast bulk of Taliban grouos fighting US/NATO in Afghanistan. We deployed 80,000 Troops to support USA in war on terror ? The Pakistani troop deployment in FATA was done after General Musharraf became angry with an assassination attempt which was linked to FATA militants. From 2001 till 2010 no regular Pakistani troops were deployed on some 1500 Km border with Afghanistan where some 80 % of Afghan Taliban were opposing US/NATO and some 70 % of US forces were deployed.

Pakistan contrary to common held beliefs did not deploy any of its regular forces against Taliban fighting against US forces in Afghanistan.All along the 1500 Km border opposite Kandahar,Paktika , Helmand and Nimroz !

Contrary to prevalent myths Pakistan did not send its forces into FATA and Waziristan to aid US forces in Afghanistan but out of retaliation against the 2003-4 assasination attempt on Musharraf linked to FATA militants. The militant backlash against Pakistani military had little link with US military actions in Afghanistan but a major link with excessive use of force by Pakistani military in FATA resulting inmajor collateraldamage. The Swat Rebellion of 2008-9 also did not have any major link with US operations in Afghanistan but was a result of excessiveuse of military force in Lal Masjid in Islamabad which was avoidable and unnecessary. Similarly the Balochistan war also had little connection with US presence in Afghanistan or Indian conspiracies but the major reason was excessive use of force by the usurper Musharraf against the Baloch and an attempt to change the demography of Balochistan by projects of ulterior motivation like Gwadar Port,Greater Kachi Canal and Mirani Dam. The major crisis of Pakistan is internal while the Pakistani establishment seeks to externalise it . The major reason of growth of religious militancy in Pakistan is misuse of religion by Pakistani establishment and conveniently abandoning it when it suits them. The major reason of Pakistans economic problems post 2008 was the fallout of excessive use of military force by Musharraf and the resultant political instability.

Pakistans civilians have failed but they failed because of the mess that they inherited from a usurper military regime. But the important fact is that Pakistans civilians do not control Pakistans Afghan or India policy , so failure if any will be squarely the failure of Pakistans security establishment in the final summing up. It is time that the Pakistani establishment does some inner thinking and the Pakistani media stop blaming Blackwater,USA,Israel and India for sabotage carried out by Pakistans vested interests to achieve their narrow class agendas.

09 September, 2010

FC in Balochistan
It was a surprise and a shock to hear that now Balochistan operation would be conducted by the Frontier Corps. When I retired from the army in 1993 it was said that in Balochistan the people either feared the FC (Frontier Corps) or Allah ! Jokes aside this meant that the FC being a force governed by law of jungle fired without restraint , killed without remorse and operated above all laws.It was common that the FC killed civilians and buried them unreported, as many other government functionaries do in Balochistan ! I asked an outstanding Sindhi Pashtun then serving in Intelligence Bureau as to what the Intelligence Bureaus role ? He replied to make one tribe fight another or one ethnic group fear or distrust another and similarly in case of sects so that the state rules with ease ! The Frontier Corps (FC ) was basically a cheap colonial force to control the difficult natives in NWFP and Balochistan Agency ! Almost

wholly Pashtun this force was deployed against rebellious Pashtun tribes as well as the Baloch and some international Islamic revolutionaries then known as Hindustani fanatics and Wahabis ! FC is divided into two types of corps i.e Internal Security (IS) and Anti Smuggling . Altghough initially a border force in Balochistan , FC Corps were raised in all parts of Balochistans interior and borders after 1947 and by 1985 nearly district of Balochistan had an FC Corps ! The FC was nearly 90 % if not 95 % Pashtun although Punjabi recruitment has been reportedly increased lately ! It was traditionally more active in border areas while its IS corps were not employed in active policing ! Broadly following can or may be the implications of employment of FC in Balochistan :-1. Politically a Machiavellian act letting loose a wholly Pashtun force on Baloch tribes or parties involved in fighting a political war of liberation against a successor state of British Empire. Seen in this context the exercise can very quickly deteriorate into ethnic cleansing ! 2. Rendering the political government of Balochistan (although not truly representative thanks to boycott of elections by mainstream Baloch parties) nearly hundred percent powerless in matters of policing and internal security.This will happen because the FC is officered by the Pakistani military and nominally functions under Ministry of Interior while in reality it is controlled by the corps commander in Quetta !

3. While the military is to some extent multi ethnic the FC is a wholly or near wholly Pashtun force organized on tribal and sub tribal lines ! This when enforced would be a very dangerous combination politically as well as ethnically ! 4. This exercise would be the first step in imposing military rule in Balochistan alone ! The spineless chief minister already despised by all ethnic groups will either become a figure head or will resign or a situation may arise where Balochistans assembly is dissolved leading to governors rule ! 5. Escalation of the ongoing Balochistan war from a disorganized war into a full fledged war of Baloch with federal government thus leading to eventual induction of regular military and a full fledged military counter insurgency operation in Balochistan. 6. There is a school of thought in Pakistani establishment which thinks that physical elimination and disappearance should be the only strategy in Balochistan and is confident that because of less population the Baloch can be eliminated like Australias aboriginals and USAs Red Indians.This is the Musharraf school of thought which actually initiated this genocide in Balochistan as early as 2002 further mixed with strategy of demographic change like Gwadar and Greater Kacchi Canal which would turn balochistan into a Punjabi and Pashtun majority province ! 7. The Balochistan strategy is being implemented in consonance with Afghanistan where the Paskistani establishments military and civilian bureaucrats think that a Taliban victory is imminent in Afghanistan ! How to get out of this quagmire :--1. This is a regional issue and not a Pakistan alone issue ! In Indo Pak unless there is a solution of the big state or the smaller states

issue this conflict will go on ! Plebiscite in Kashmir would lead to plebiscites in Balochistan and in many parts of India and Pakistan ! The wholre conflict is interlinked ! All major insurgents whether Afghan Taliban , Kashmiris,Maoists,Naxalites or Baloch have genuine grievances as well as state sponsors ! 2. The final issue if not decided politically will be decided by a final Indo Pak war which now seems imminent by 2012 or 2013 . History will not forgive nations which use genocide as a political weapon ! What I see ahead is more and more disorder and anarchy ! We salute the age of perpetual strategic anarchy in Pakistan ! Perhaps the whole edifice will come down !

11 September, 2010

POINT 3040 PICQUET AND CEMETRY KHYBER PASS 1942
IN ORDER TO SEE ENLARGED PICTURE CLICK ON TOP OF EACH PICTURE

PICQUET 4030 AS SEEN FROM PAKISTAN SIDE AT TORKHAM PAKISTAN AFGHAN BORDER

PICQUET 4030 FROM AFGHAN SIDE.SEE HOW IT DOMINATES THE AFGHAN SIDE.

A most dominating picquet at the Torkham end of Khyber Pass built by the British as seen from Pakistan side

8 September, 2010

Pakistan-A Unique State
How to define a pathetic state :-1-Survived in 1971 because Nixon warned Indira Gandhi not to overrun West Pakistan.This point discussed in detail by Nixon and Kissinger in his memoirs. 2-Survived being totally isolated and from economic breakdown because of crumbs thrown by USA because of Soviet Afghan War of 1979-88 and Afghan war of 2001-till to date.

3-All major political and military leaders including army chief , president and prime minister appointed by USA and whose tenures are guaranteed by US government. 4-Civil officials mostly middle class or lower middle class are so corrupt that Pakistans financial minister admitted that some 750 Billion Rupees are misappropriated every year. 5-Main export is terrorism to neighbouring countries while constantly moans and cribs that it is victim of terrorism.Has to its credit completely destroying Afghanistans infra structure from 1978 till 2010 and is now lead figure in attempting to broker peace between extremists and USA ! 6-Parliament consists of Guiness book level crooks and swindlers and tax evaders ! 7-Military famous for breaking the country from 1958 to 1971 and possibly again in between 2010 and 2013 and also famous for having largest business and real estate value in the country ! -Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." -Albert Einstein !!!

28 September, 2010

PAKISTANS AFGHAN WAR WAS FOR US DOLLARS

Dr Najeebullah Shaheed murdered cowardly by hirelings of foreign powers in September 1996 will be remembered on 30th September 2010. Pakhtun Democratic Council, National Party, PAM and Leekwal are holding a conference regarding death anniversary of Shaheed Dr. Najibullah Khan former President Islamic Republic of Afghanistan on Thursday, Sep. 30, 2010 at 1:45 pm in Peshawar Press Club. All lovers, well wishers and friends of Shaheed are invited to participate. A collective prayers will be offered for the departed soul at the end of the conference

Regards Zar ali khan musazai Chairman Pashtun Democratic Council Peshawar

-Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." -Albert Einstein !!! http://www.scribd.com/doc/22151765/History-of-Pakistan-Army-from-1757-to-1971 http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONALANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN http://www.scribd.com/doc/21686885/TALIBAN-WAR-IN-AFGHANISTAN http://www.scribd.com/doc/22455178/Letters-to-Command-and-Staff-College-Quetta-Citadel-Journal http://www.scribd.com/doc/23150027/Pakistan-Army-through-eyes-of-Pakistani-Generals http://www.scribd.com/doc/23701412/War-of-Independence-of-1857 http://www.scribd.com/doc/22457862/Pakistan-Army-Journal-The-Citadel http://www.scribd.com/doc/21952758/1971-India-Pakistan-War http://www.scribd.com/doc/25171703/BOOK-REVIEWS-BY-AGHA-H-AMIN

The Saur Revolution of April 1978 was an inspiring event in history !

My hero in this was off course the man who made it all possible ! Major Aslam Watanjar the indomitable tankist who played hell with Daud Khans presidential palace !

It was Aslam Watanjars bold action of April 1978 that inspired me to join Pakistan Armys tank corps in 1981 !

We all saw the illegitimate usurper Zia as an illegitimate man who had no business to be there ! We are human beings and just because a man was the army chief we did not have to regard him as onewhen he was in reality an illegitimate usurper ! Watanjar may have been an Afghan by birth but he was greater than that ! He was a hero who transformed a country and removed

an arbitrary president ! We identified with his actions of April 1978 ! From where he was was not material or relevant !

We saw Aslam Watanjar as a revolutionary and a hero !

As Pakistans illegitimate military junta of that time was isolated and a pariah state it invented Jihad to get US Dollars ! What is propagated as Jihad was all about US Dollars !

I had the great honour of meeting my hero Jagran Watanjar in 1995-96. He died in 2000 and is buried in Oddessa ! May God Bless his soul ! Later I met many Khalqis and Parchamis in Afghanistan .

A Parchami Colonel who was a dare devil pilot of Mig 21 and Sukhoi 5

A BROAD VIEW OF STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL AND TACTICAL POSSIBILITIES

Major Agha H Amin (Retired)

24/10/10

This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization of various strategic,operational and tactical possibilities in the Af Pak Region .

Broad Strategic Scenario

BROAD ORIENTATION OF TALIBAN GROUPS

A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN AND US POSSIBLE STRATEGY

US Strategy appears to be neutralization and annihilation of the more radical Haqqani Company for strategic operational and face saving and a possible compromise with the less radical Mulla Omar and Hikmatyar Companies.

Another major objective is to drive a wedge in between Pakistani state and Haqqani and Company by focing Pakistan to take military action against Haqqani.

General Hameed Gul in various interviews recently has presented a twin power failure theory spread over 2 to five years :---

1. Failure and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan. 2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together with Chinese assistance and Indian withdrawal from Kashmir. 3. Maoists start a grand offensive with Chinese and Pakistani support and India is weakened and destabilized. 4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and Middle East. 5. General Gul also warned Islamists against any confrontation with China.

6. On the other hand US covert policy seems to be to provoke a major Islamist Insurrection in China which Gul says should be avoided at all costs.

US Options

1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any major strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan and avoid a nuclear conflict which is likely if an attempt is made to denuclearize Pakistan with Indian assistance.Will straight lead to realization of Hameed Gul Theory. 2. There is a possibility that US unilateral withdrawal can lead to another war of interventions in Afghanistan with Russia and Iran in the lead:--

3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and partition it .A least risk and pragmatic approach strategically balanced and entirely feasible.

4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the war . May be beyond US potential if not materially then at least in terms of

resolution.A US state department official Doug Scherer termed US leadership as irresolute in case of Iran. 5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the region , keep a permanent force in Af Pak .A dangerous possibility which can lead to a major conflict possibly nuclear with China stepping in.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY By Major Agha H Amin (Retired) 06 November 2010 POSSIBILITY ALPHA 1. The US/NATO/CIS/International Community retain a buffer peace keeping zone in Kabul Torkham Corridor. 2. This would act as a damper for Taliban and enable US/NATO/International forces to act as a strategic fire brigade in case of any major upset in Afghanistan. 3. A Russian/CIS force acts as peace keeping force in North Afghanistan in cooperation with Northern Alliance which enjoys support of majority of North Afghanistan population. 4. An Iranian peace keeping force in west Afghanistan. 5. A most balanced and rational solution 6.The only weak link is will the Taliban respect the arrangement ? No because they only fear Allah and have some respect for the B 52 !

POSIBILITY BRAVO 1. US Withdrawal while retaining the Kabul Torkham Corridor and a free for all international intervention. 2. The US/NATO lets the events take their own course with no formal agreement with regional parties. 3. India escalates against Pakistan to reduce pressure on Northern Alliance.

POSSIBILITY CHARLIE 1. THE US/NATO WITHDRAW TOTALLY NOT RETAINING ANY PRESENCE WHILE RUSSIA/CIS/IRAN/INDIA INTERVENE. 2. TALIBAN WILL OCCUPY GREATER PART OF AFGHANISTAN THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA OR CHARLIE BUT CIVIL WAR CONTINUES. 3. INDIA ESCALATES AGAINST PAKISTAN TO SUPPORT NORTHERN ALLIANCE .

POSSIBILITY DELTA 1. THE US/NATO TOTALLY WITHDRAWS WHILE ONLY RUSSIA/CIS/INDIA INTERVENE. 2. TALIBAN OCCUPY GREATER AREA THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA BRAVO AND CHARLIE BUT THE CIVIL WAR CONTINUES. 3. INDIA PAKISTAN CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AS AN INDIAN RESPONSE TO REDRESS THE BALANCE IN AFGHANISTAN BY ESCALATING AGAINST PAKISTAN. 4. A CONVENTIONAL INDO PAK WAR STARTS INVOLVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

USA -NATO -DRUGS TRAFFICKING-AFGHANISTAN-CENTCOM-DEAANTI NARCOTICS STRATEGY-WAR ON TERROR 15 NOVEMBER 2010

MY ASSESSMENT OF DRUGS TRAFFICKING CARRIED OUT FOR A NON STATE CLIENT IN 2006 AS A CONSULTANT

MY ASSESSMENT OF DRUGS TRAFFICKING CARRIED OUT FOR A NON STATE CLIENT IN 2006 AS A CONSULTANT

IT IS NINE YEARS THAT THE USA/NATO OCCUPIED AFGHANISTAN .

ONE UNIQUE ACHIEVEMENT OF US/NATO FORCES IS THAT IN THESE NINE YEARS AFGHANISTAN BECAME THE SUPPLIER OF SOME 75 % OF WORLDS HARD CORE DRUGS LIKE HEROIN , MORPHIA PASTE OPIUM AND HASHISH !

DRUGS ARE BEING MANUFACTURED RIGHT IN THE AREA WHERE SOME 80 % OF NATO FORCES DOING THE ACTUAL FIGHTING IN AFGHANISTAN ARE LOCATED , I.E HELMAND AND KANDAHAR. A GREAT COMPLIMENT TO THE EFFICIENCY OF US FORCES ! IF THE ANTIQUATED TALIBANS COULD BRING THE DRUG PRODUCTION IN AFGHANISTAN TO NEAR ZERO WHY CANNOT THE MACHO SOLDIERS IN FANCY CAMOUFLAGE JACKETS ARMED WITH THE MOST SOPHISTICATED EQUIPMENT IN THE WORLD ! AND THE USA HAS A SECRETARY OF STATE WHO IS MORE FIT TO BE ON THE BOARD OF WALMART THAN ANYTHING TO DO WITH WAR ! IN 2005 AFGHANISTANS INTERIOR MINISTER ALI JALALI WAS FORCED TO RESIGN BECAUSE THE US COULD DO WITHOUT JALALI BUT NOT WITHOUT THE DRUG MAFIA THAT JALALI WAS TRYING TO TARGET ! IN THE COURSE OF MY RESEARCH I MET MANY ANTI DRUG OFFICIALS IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN BUT NONE SEEM TO BE MUCH CONCERNED WITH DRUG TRAFFICKING !

A US DRUG OFFICIAL OF INDIAN ORIGIN I MET WAS MORE CONCERNED WITH MOVING BACK TO THE STATES WITH HERE JEWISH FIANCEE RATHER THAN ANYTHING TO DO WITH DRUGS AND WAS CONFIDENT THAT DRUGS HAD BEEN NEARLY ELIMINATED FROM AFGHANISTAN IN 2005. US EMBASSY SECOND SECRETARY DOUG SCHERER BRILLIANTLY SUMMED UP THESE SENIOR OFFICIALS AS WET PUSSIES INCAPABLE OF ANY DECISION MAKING HIDING BEHIND E MAILS. THE BILLION DOLLAR OR THE TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW ARE THE DRUGS BEING PRODUCED AND EXPORTED RIGHT UNDER THE NOSE OF THE MOST HIGHLY PAID AND WELL EQUIPPED ARMY IN THE WORLD ! BADAKHSHAN AND TAKHAR THE CENTRE OF TAJIK DRUG MAFIA HAVE HARDLY ANY NATO FORCES ! AT LEAST 60 TO 70 % OF AFGHAN DRUGS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED VIA PAKISTAN WHOSE BORDER IS CLOSELY MONITORED BY US AND NATO FORCES !

PAKISTANS ANTI NARCOTICS TASK FORCE ALSO TARGETS SMALL PEDDLERS WHILE THE MAJOR SHIPPERS ARE VIPS ? IT OCCASIONALLY TARGETS HEAVY WEIGHTS BUT WITH A POLITICAL AGENDA LIKE RAHMAT SHAH AFRIDI WHO WAS TARGETED FOR BEING AN INTELLECTUALLY HONEST MAN AND WRITING THE TRUTH IN FRONTIER POST. THE QUESTION IS NOT THAT US FORCES ARE CORRUPT BUT POLICY MAKES ALL STATE ACTORS PART OF THE DRUG MAFIA WITH A STATED POLICY OF STATE INTEREST MIXED PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE PERSONAL INTEREST ! IF THERE WAS A CONTRA SCANDAL EARLIER AND IF A GOLDEN TRIANGLE WAS CREATED TO FINANCE VIETNAM WHY NOT A NEW GOLDEN CRESCENT IN AF PAK ! NO DOUBT THAT MANY EX ANTI DRUG OFFICIALS BECAME OWNERS OF BIG BUSINESSES IN UAE AND SO MANY OTHER PLACES ! SOME OWN TEXTILE MILLS AND CEMENT FACTORIES !

EVERYTHING GOES IN US OCCUPIED AFGHANISTAN AND ITS TACTICAL GARBAGE COLLECTOR , SUBSIDIARY VASSAL PAKISTAN ! IF YOU WANT TO INVEST IN DRUGS COME TO AFGHANISTAN FOR PRODUCTION AND TO PAKISTAN FOR TRANSPORTATION AND UAE OFF COURSE FOR HIGHER STRATEGY ! THE TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MANY PERCENT ARE BEING TRANSPORTED BY AIR VIA KABUL , KANDAHAR , KUNDUZ , BAGRAM AND HERAT ? The money and valuables found in this one house alone in Mexico just next to USA , would be enough to pay for health insurance for every man woman and child in the U.S.A. for 12 years! There are believed to be approximately 27 more of these houses in Mexico alone not to mention the ones in other countries who are enriching themselves in the drug trade. These people have so much money, they make the Arab oil sheiks look like welfare recipients.

Their money can buy the best politicians, the best cops, and the best judges. Whatever they need, they just throw down stacks of cash and it is theirs! This is why the drug problem is so difficult to fight. -- http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONAL-ANALYSISBY-A-H-AMIN Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." -Albert Einstein !!!

Pakistans Strategic Mess is USAs Strategic Mess too 1978 Revolution ,Pakistan and Strategic Anarchy--Pakistans uncertain future Agha H Amin 26 December 2010 The April 1978 Saur Revolution was a historic event in modern history.

While the revolution merits a whole book or many volumes , we will just very briefly discuss its salient parts. Afghanistan status as a buffer state was irrevocably transformed into a state where super powers fought
proxy wars.Thus some 98 years of Afghan history of being a buffer state was changed.

Power shifted in Afghanistan from a Durrani-Persianised feudal elite into a more broad based multi ethnic state.The new leftist regime had Tajiks ,Hazaras and Uzbeks previously regarded as second and third rate citizens ! Although the coups major leaders were Pashtuns from Paktia and Khost like the indomitable Aslam Watanjar the PDPA was essentially a mix of Persian speaking urbanised intellectuals organised as Parchamis and a more radiacal Pashtun section from Paghman Khost and Paktia known as Parchamis.The Khalqis were rash , bold , impetuous and radiacal , while the Parchamis were more moderate. The Saur revolution proved a gold mine for Pakistans illegitimate military junta of Zia which till April 1978 was politically an illegitimate bastard child regime.This

regime used the Afghan revolution as a pretext to get dollars from USA and Saudi Arabia.Power shifted in Pakistan from a more progressive PPP regime to a more Punjabised regime dominated by refugees from Jullundhur and Batala etc .

Since this new clique was fatherless and illegitimate it used religion as well as caste as a political tool.Thus it outlawed political parties and Pakistani politics became more ethnic andsub ethnic with Punjab divided into castes as political forces and Sindh divided into urban and rural ! The division of Sindh into urban and rural was a planned reaction by the Pakistani illegal military regime as a counter to the MRD Movement of 1983 which had its roots in rural Sindh ! Pashtuns were used as cannon fodder by the military junta as proxies in Afghan war and thus the seeds of religious extremism were planted in Pakistan . Foreign policy and all security and defence matters in Pakistan became the preserve of Pakistani military which continues till to date !

All civilian governments which came into power after 1988 elections in Pakistan were remote controlled by the Pakistani military and when Nawaz Sharif tried to assert civilian control in 1997-99 he was removed by a military coup. It would not be wrong to call Pakistan an army with a country and not a country with an army since 5th July 1977, with a short stint of full civilian control by the second PML N Government from February 1997 to October 1999 !

There is no doubt that Pakistan is a state with dual controls since 5th July 1977 with a civilian co pilot who in reality is a flight steward and a hidden real piolt who controls major financial and security issues ! The imbalance in this situation are three new factors i.e (1) religious extremism which is now on a reverse boomerang course against the Pakistani elite (2) regional centrifugal forces in Balochistan (3) an increased foreign interest in Pakistan where foreign powers led by USA see Pakistan as an anachroninistic and adventurist state .

Five cardinal fact stand out in this scenario , (1) The USA severely lacks long term strategic insight and US policy is run on short term objectives which is well proven from how it behaved after USSR withdrew from Afghanistan and till 9/11 (2) Pakistan alone will not be able to restore strategic stability in Afghanistan or even Pakistan itself .Its military which controls major part of Pakistans financial and security policy is not intellectually capable of understanding the immense complexity of strategy andgeopolitics (3) The Pakistani state will not be able to control Islamic extremism (4) The multiplicity of state and non state actors can lead to severe strategic stability culminating in an India Pakistan nuclear stand off.

The Islamists are far more powerful than they seem ! The Pakistani military is not as clever as it thinks it is ! The Americans are strategically pathetic ! Thus the issue will be decided by random and unforeseeable forces ! Certainly what mean mortals who are in charge of affairs in this whole complex drama want may not happen ! Thus the relative less visible forces will take over ! The scene is thus set for strategic anarchy ! The real danger is that Pakistan cannot afford it but it is heading straight into a diasaster course because it has no able navigator at the highest level !

03 January, 2011

ASSORTED PEARLS OF NONSENSE FROM A US ARMY OFFICER JEFFREY SOUTER

90 % TALIBAN ARE SEEN BY PAKISTANI MILITARY AS GOOD TALIBAN. IF PAKISTANI ARMY HAS SUFFERED CASUALTIES IT IS AGAINST 10 PERCENT TALIBAN WHO ARE ANTI PAKISTAN BECAUSE OF STUPIDITIES OF THE ILLEGITIMATE MILITARY USURPER MUSHARRAF IN KILLING INNOCENT PASHTUNS LIKE PARTRIDGES IN FATA IN 2003-2007..................AND HAVE NO LINK WITH TALIBAN FIGHTING WITH US FORCES.

MAJOR JEFFREY SOUTER IS A CLUELESS WRITER WHO HAS NOT STUDIED AFGHANISTANS MAP PROPERLY ! HAS NO IDEA WHERE THEVAST BULK OF US ARMY IS FIGHTING AND THE FORCE RATIOS ! MAY BE HE WILL IMPROVE HIS KNOWLEDGE AT LEAVENWORTH , ALTHOUGH THAT ALSO IS EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL ! GOD HELP USA AND US ARMY THOUGH ! I AM SURPRISED THAT JEFFREY SOUTER HAS SUCH OVERSIMPLISTIC AND NAIEVE IDEAS ! AGHA AMIN AGHA AMIN

05 January, 2011

US Army 172 Infantry Brigade Commander removed for not having command qualities or ulterior reasons
What exactly is command potential ?

Major Agha H Amin (Retired)

Having served in the army this could have been a case of personality clash also ! Many a times a man of conviction is sacked and labelled as not having command qualities ! This is quite common in the military ! Exactly what is command potential ! Being a goodyes man with general Batschelet !

I have seen the US soldier in Afghanistan and I sympathise with him because he is led by hole punchers well described in Crisis in Command!

The same process in Pakistan Army as I saw it , a conspiracy against originality and boldness , i have described in detail with concrete historical evidence in my article which may be read by clicking on the link below:--

http://pakistan-armyinterviews.blogspot.com/2010/12/assessmentmilitary-training-and.html

Terms like command potential etc are twistable and pliable ! After all Colonel T.N Dupuy in his book Genius for war did prove that one German soldier was equal to three US soldiers because the German organisation was better ! They had a healthy tradition of Auftragsatkiks and a more vibrant officer corps .

Lawrence of Arabia and Napoleon were called mad men by their superiors in rank and appointment ! The use of intangible words like command potential has always an ulterior motive !

Martin Van Creveld a professor teaching at an Israeli university also reached the same conclusion as Dupuy when he wrote Fighting Power !

In Crisis in Command two US officers Gabriel and Savage reached the conclusion that US Army was plagued by a serious disease of apple polishing , sycophancy and hole punching ! I dont think it has come out of

it since Crisis in Command was written !

The authors thus agreed that the real fighting material in Vietnam were

sidelined while the staff types who hole punched came up.

Certainly US Army today is far inferior to the US Army in Vietnam in intangible military virtues thanks to characters like Rumsfeld who were proponents of privatising defense !

Rather reliance on private contractors has severely eroded the Clausewitzian military virtue of the US Army ! Thus we have a US Ambassador in Afghanistan who is a lobbyist for 27,000 over paid private American and British security guards ! The whole US Congress appears to have been bought by the private security companies !

One thing is clear ! The US Army needs some Christian values ! It lacks that burning ideological nationalism of theWehrmacht and the Red Army though !

An army will not fight if its political leadership is lobbying for the wall street or for KBR or Global Security guarding US installations in Afghanistan !

In 1994 my commanding officer an outstanding man was retired prematurely with the same label that he lacked command qualities

because he had defied his seniors over a matter of principle !

Agha H Amin
22 March, 2011

The Pashtuns in History-Agha.H.Amin

The Pashtuns

Agha.H.Amin

Let the pictures speak as the first part of this summing up of a sad chapter of history !

When I started preparing for my first major bid in Afghanistan " Naghlu-Kabul" Electric transmission line I went for pre bid survey on Kabul Lataband Road.The locals all Pashtuns told us that they were paid 100 USD per tower for destroying a pylon in Soviet Afghan War !

Extremism is a very Pakistani export to all neighbouring countries.

Off course the US was also a monster in this situation as were the Pakistanis who were the US vassals.In course of my 8 years in Afghanistan I discovered that major damage of Afghan war was in Pashtun belt as it was closer to Pakistan and it was easier to logistically support the characters destroying pylons.

As I travelled north I discovered that the north was literally undamaged as it was farther away from Pakistan ! I leave it for experts in Pashtun history to judge whether Pashtun area was damaged in order to keep Pashtuns backward or it was a coincidence ! It would be wrong to brand a Pashtun as a born lunatic !

The greatest poets in the sub continent starting from Nawab Shefta Khan Bangash ,Josh Malihabadi Afridi Akhtar Sheerani and Ahmad Faraz were Pashtuns ! Indeed the most progressive Afghans and Pakistanis have been Pashtuns ! Without Aslam Watanjar the indomitable Paktiawal or without Said Gulabozai the Saur Revolution may have totally failed in Afghanistan ! My dear Zazi lady friend from Khost smoke the maximum joints and drank more vodka than any man that I met in Afghanistan and preferred being intimate with the curtains open ! It would be correct to term Pashtuns as victims of geography , of being divided in two states , being regarded as a political threat by non Pashtuns in both Pakistan and Afghanistan ! Being more

adventurous and brave than any race in the region , thanks to geography , historical circumstances and I hate to say some racial factors ! The Pashtuns were thus regarded as cannon fodder by Iranians, Mughals,Turks ,Sikhs ,British and Pakistanis and a useful reason to remain in Afghyanistan by the USA ! When the German Kaiser wanted a revolt against British in India the only ones who cameto rise in revolt were thetribal Pashtuns ! A Pashtun tribe Afridi is the only tribe in history where the British Emperor awarded a Victoria Cross to one cousin and the German Kaiser the Iron Cross to the other cousin ! Both fighting in the same area ! The Mughals imported Iranians against Pashtuns and were ultimately betrayed by the Irianians when the Marathas and Nadir Shah attackedthe Mughals. The backbone of Nadir Shahs armys were the Abdali Pashtuns ! The best Mughal army soldiers apart from Uzbeks were Pashtuns ! Yet this race was regarded by fear and apprehension and throughout history used to fight proxy wars ! Just because it was though politically dangerous that they remained free and grew politically and economically !

There is no denying that a Pashtun is formidable in any role ,be it a leftist Khalqi or a Taliban ! This is so because he is brought up to be totally committed to an idea that he believes in ! This may be an anthropological or sociological explanation !

A Safi or a Zadran or a Kharoti is formidable reagrdless of the fact that he is Rahmatullah Safi with the ISI or a Watanjar who was a die hard leftist or a Gulabozai who was Afghanistans best Interior Minister and yet polled the highest number of votes from Khost in 2005 Elections. My friend a pro Pakistan Pashtun to the core heading an ISI sector confessed that even the best dogs used in dog fight are bred in Pashtun areas ! It may be ironically symbolic but true. My personal observations indicate that the Pashtuns were regarded as cannon fodder to be used in Kashmir and Afghanistan by the Pakistani establishment . Thus ironically while the most progressive section in Afghan socoety were Pashtun Khalqis without whom there would have been no leftist coup in Afghanistan ,the Pashtuns suffered the most in Afghan war and the non Pashtuns gained the most , politically and economically ! Demography is cruel ! It is devastating and Pakistans demography is changing ! Karachi is the largest Pashtun city in the world and we are at a watershed when Pashtuns may not be manipulated any longer the way they have been manipulated in the past ! As they say the wheel turns in history !

-A.H Amin http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-ANDOPERATIONAL-ANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN

31 March, 2011

THE PAKISTANI TRADITION OF APPEASEMENT ,OPPORTUNISM , DOCILITY AND SYCOPHANCY
THE PAKISTANI TRADITION OF APPEASEMENT ,OPPORTUNISM , DOCILITY AND SYCOPHANCY

IT WOULD NOT BE WRONG TO DESCRIBE PAKISTAN AS THE CITADEL OF APPEASEMENT ,OPPORTUNISM , DOCILITY AND SYCOPHANCY. THIS IS PAKISTANS UNIQUE CHARACTER !

ITS GENERALS CANNOT ACHIEVE A BREAKTHROUGH AT KHEM KARAN EVEN WHEN THEY HAVE A SUPERIORITY OVER SEVEN TO ONE IN TANKS ! ITS MILITARY INTELLIGENCE FAILS TO LOCATE AN INDIAN TANK DIVISION WHICH HAS A HEAD TO TAIL LENGTH OF AT LEAST A 100 MILES WHEN MOVING ON A SINGLE ROAD ! ITS JUDGES HAVESHAMELESSLY VALIDATED ILLEGITIMATE MILITARY TAKE OVERS REPEATEDLY AND THIS INCLUDES ITS PRESENT SUPREME COURT WHO SHAMELESSLY COLLABORATED WITH PAKISTANI MILITARY AND GAVE A CLEAN CHIT TO THE ILLEGITIMATE MILITARY USURPER MUSHARRAF IN 1999-2000. NOW THOSE WHO TRIED TO KILL MUSHARRAF WERE ACTUALLY TRYING TO KILL A TRAITOR WHO HAD USURPED POWER ! A MAN WHO HAD COMMITTED HIGH TREASON ! AND INSTEAD OF APPRECIATING THESE HEROES WHO HAD MORE GUTS AND WERE MORE INTELLECTUALLY HONEST THAN ANY PAKISTANI JUDGE THE SUPREME COURTS DISMISSES THEIR PEOPLE ! I DONT THINK A COUNTRY WHERE COURTS COLLABORATE WITH THOSE WHO HAVE POWER AND SENTENCE THOSE WHO FOUGHT AGAINST TYRANNY DESERVE TO EXIST ! PAKISTANS JUDGE ARE SHIT SCARED OF THE MILITARY ! PAKISTAN HAS A STONE AGE LAW DENYING BASIC RIGHTS TO MILITARY PERSONNEL AND UNLIKE INDIA WHERE MILITARY PERSONNEL HAVE RIGHTS TO GO TO CIVIL COURT WHILE STILL IN UNIFORM ,PAKISTAN HAS NO SUCH RIGHTS ! ITS A STONE AGE COUNTRY NO DOUBT ! A COUNTRY WHERE INTELLECTUAL DISHONESTY IS REWARDED AND THOSE WHO DEFY USUPERS SENTENCED TO DEATH ! WHAT AN ABSOLUTE SHAME ! AGHA.H.AMIN

0 April, 2011

A Hole Puncher Called General Petraeus
CRISIS IN COMMAND-US ARMY Major Agha H Amin (Retired)

'It was observed by two outstanding US military historians and social psychologists Gabriel and Savage the authors of "Crisis in Command" both former Army officers assessed the U.S. Army as an army in deep moral crisis.

We did bring out the ambiguous US role in Afghan war in our book published by Edwin Mellen Press New York.

They found the US Army career officers plagued with civilian "managerial" values and devoid of traditional military virtues .

From what I saw of US Army in Afghanistan as a sub contractor of USAID in Helmand ,Ghazni and Kunduz provinces the assessment of Gabriel and Savage still seems valid.I refer to the mid level and higher commanders.

As one Canadian military analyst Dr Geoff Shaw put it "But any great power so enamored with false-hood can not stand for long ".

Here we have the same hole punching , the same tail heavy and teeth weak , whiz kid army that Gabriel and Savage found Vietnam.

The US Army has no strategy to fight the war ! The question is that having no strategy actually a part of a strategy to remain in Afghanistan and to dominate the region on pretext of fighting so called terrorists ! A costly strategy and all at cost of US tax payer ! A strategy tailor made to satisfy the military industrial complex and defence contractors.

Hole punchers dominate the US military ! The US Army has no strategic plan although it sells its military effectiveness with flashy

publicity campaigns. Drug trafficking continues right in the area hemmed with three largest US military bases in Afghanistan i.e Camps Leatherneck ,Dwyer and Bastion (British-US) . Now is is a part of a deliberate strategy or is it sheer complacency ! Or is it capacity building by the US for the major Afghan export to Europe ? Drugs !

The Talibans move with liberty back and forth through most of the 1900 Km of the total 2400 Km Afghan Pakistan Border.

All this hints at the fact that US position is ambiguous and it sees Taliban as a good future asset against Iran ,Russia and even China as far as Chinese Singkiang which US thinkers like to call Chinese Turkestan !

The entire US strategy is a classic collection of contradictions ! They are droning some groups in Pakistans FATA but doing little against Afghan Taliban ! The differences between pakistani military and US are not over war on terror but on protecting each others proxies ! It is no secret that the Afghan Taliban are Pakistani strategic assets while some groups in Pakistan fighting the Pakistan Army are US/NATO strategic assets . The only difference between USA and Pakistan is as to who is the target ! The Pakistani military sees their Taliban assets as proxies against India while the US wants the Taliban to be future US assets against Iran ,Russia,Russian Central Asian sattellite states and above all China ! Nothing in the last ten years hints that the USA came to defeat the Taliban or Al Qaeda. The Al Qaeda has significantly consolidated its bases in North East Afghanistan .But General Petraeus who claims he can run five

miles with journalists in the safety of Kabul or Bagram thinks other wise ! Is allowing Al Qaeda to consolidate an innocent strategic lapse or part of Petraeus grand strategy ! And is the Petraeus strategy to defeat Al Qaeda or to become the CIA boss !

This is the classic Gabriel and Savage US Army general flying high in his command plane ! Miles away from danger while Gabriel and Savage sadly compared US Army with German Army where both

noted that 33 % general officers died in battle leading from the front ! Here we have this great captain of war who is all set to lead the CIA ! Certainly one is inclined to agree with Weiners book on CIA " The Ashes" . It is certain that US politics as most politics is about self serving characters who see international events and war as pegs to climb up the winding road to power !

Can Petraeus take a walk with a normal US Army patrol in Pech Valley or Kamdesh for five miles !

Generalship is not running Five Miles General Petraeus

What are his tangible strategic or even operational achievements as US military commander in Afghanistan rather than a zig zag hop step and jump to be the next DCI ! I have immense respect for the US soldier and juniour leaders but not the hole punching generals !

Yet Petraeus claims that all is well ! What could be an inch away from what Gabriel and Savage pointed out in Crisis in Command.

The great danger in US strategic ambiguity is that it can trigger a major global conflict at best with China and Russia stepping in with a nuclear exchange or keeping the whole region unstable at best ! Confusion of principle , strategic ambiguity , mixing of friend and foes at the strategic level is a dangerous modus operandi ! A dangerous game which can go out of hand at any time and which even Petraeus whose main qualification seems to be running five miles at 6000 feet may not be able to control at all !

This is not just the military only . A spirited and highly motivated US State Department officer Doug Scherer described his superiors in State Department in May 2006 as "W___t P__u____s___s hiding behinde mails and taking no decisions".He then symbolically decided that we should watch Gettysburg (Doug regarded Lee as his hero ,as most Americans would) ! God Save mankind and USA and US Army !

The USA needs men like Petraeus certainly !

PAKISTANS GREATEST MILITARY , AIR AND INTELLIGENCE FAILURE-US RAID ON KAKUL 1. TOTAL MILITARY FAILURE 2. TOTAL AIRFORCE FAILURE 3. TOTAL INYELLIGENCE FAILURE

WHAT IS THE WORTH AND USE OF AN ARMY WHICH TAKES 70 PERCENT OF PAKISTANS BUDGET, AN AIRFORCE WHO CONSTANTLY SQUEAKS ABOUT F 16 AIRCRAFTS , BUYS EXPENSIVE PHENOM JETS WHICH HAVE NO MILITARY USE FOR ITS MILITARY ROLE AND A MILITARY INTELLIGENCE WHO CONSTANTLY PROCLAIM THAT THEY ARE THE BEST IN THE WORLD

While the US had a legitimate national mission to kill Osama Bin Laden, their Pakistani informers had a petty personal agenda to make money.

This is unless we accept the more possible source report that Pakistani military and intelligence collaborated with USA for an operation designed to boost president obamas electoral victory in the 2012 elections and pakistani protests are just a mutually agreed game
07 May, 2011

A JOINT CIA ISI RAID ON OSAMA FOR OBAMAS 2012 ELECTION WIN

PAKISTANS DAILY NATION A NEWSPAPER KNOWN FOR BEING CLOSE TO THE ARMY AND A PARTICULARY RIGHT WING PAPER ACKNOWLEDGED PAKISTANI MILITARY NVOLVEMENT IN THE KAKUL RAID THIS SHOULD DISMISS ALL PAKISTANI OFFICIAL LIES THAT PAKISTANI MILITARY OR PAKISTANI STATE WAS AN INNOCENT SPINSTER WHO KNEW NOTHING ABOUT THIS WICKED US RAID !!!!! HA HA HA AGHA.H AMIN

12 May, 2011

US Attack Route to Kakul-Osama Bib Laden Raid
CLICK ON MAPS AND PICTURES TO ENLARGE

These are approximate plottings. A.H Amin

15 May, 2011

Shamsi Drone Base--Operational Concept of Employment of US Drones in Helmand

Concept of Employment of US Drones in Helmand by

Agha.H.Amin

Shamsi Airbase was the first major US airbase operated by CIA and Defense Contractors to attack the main Taliban bastion of power in Afghanistans Helmamd Province. Shamsi was initially built as a hunting base by the UAE Royal family in 1994. It is possible that the CIA was usng it for other covert operations.The frequent transport aircrafts flying as well as the huge warehoues complex were mysterious. Transport aircrafts frequently landed flying from Afghanistan at Shamsi.What they were carrying is anybodys guess. A Pakistani infantry battalion minus provided perimeter security to the base. The concept of acquiring Shamsi was as following:--

1. Safe and secure from any Taliban ground attack as located more than 300 km from

Afghanistan.
2. Located in the heart of a desert in Baloch territory.Baloch being hosstile tothe pre dominantly

Pashtun Taliban.
3. Being in a desert it was not easy to attack Shamsi by Taliban ground attack. 4. The US Human Intelligence forward collection set up was located at Lashkargah and Kandahar

and at Zaranj.
5. In 2006 another forward human intelligence cell was set up at Qala i Afzal in Nimroz province.

6. Wholly under CIA control thus no military interference. 7. The drone base was operational from October 2001 as late as April 2011. 8. Its importance reduced after establishment of Camp Leatherneck in Khanishin in Helmand in

2008-9. The statement made by the Pakistani airforce in the joint session of Pakistans national assembly on 13 May 2011 that Shamsi was being used by the UAE government has no connection with reality.

19 May, 2011

Intelligence Failure at Kakul

Failure at Kakul A.H Amin

The US raid on Osama Bin Ladens compound has exposed many chinks in Pakistans intelligence set up . Our foremost concern is not Osama nor the Al Qaeda but the fact that Paistani intelligence failed to locate Osama and failed to counter US intelligence penetration in Pakistan which led to the Kakul raid. The Pakistani military with its countless paid operatives in the media has launched a cover up campaign to hide this intelligence failure.It is important to analyse this failure and arrive at conclusions which may halt the rot. Pakistans list of intelligence failures is long .In 1965 Pakistani military intelligence failed to locate the Indian tank division which had a head to tail convoy length of more than a 110 miles while on the move to its final war launch location.This was an analytical failure despite clear physical evidence which proved that Indian tank division was in Kashmir.It so happened that a Pakistani commando ambush on Jammu Pathankot road had captured an Indian despatch riders mail box proving that Indian tank division was in Kashmir. The mail box was flown post haste in an L 19 aircraft to the Pakistani Director Military Intelligence Brigadier Irshaad ! Irshaad dismissed it as an Indian deception plan ! It was only a miracle that the Indians were incompetent enough on 8th September 1965 in mistaking a lone Pakistani tank regiment 25 Cavalry for a tank division and failed to achieve a breakthrough which would have straight led to a Pakistani defeat ! What happened to Brigadier Irshaad ! He was as they say a soldiers soldier ! He got promoted to two star and later three star rank and led Pakistans 1 Corps in 1971 with most diasastorous results culminating in the most miserable Pakistani failure in Shakargarh Bulge and at Battle of Bara Pind !

In 1983-84 the Indians infiltrated some 35 miles inside Siachen unknown to Pakistans so called know all omnipotent ISI and MI . Those who are exonerating the Pakisani intelligence failure have either no clue about how Pakistani intelligence operates or are doing it for pleasing some one . The Pakistani intelligence set up is based on the old British system of geographical manning down to sub district level.Each district headquarter in Pakistan has regular intelligence detachments from each of Pakistans intelligence agencies both civilian and military.Abbottabad where this failure occurred was a district headquaters. Such is the depth of information held by the Pakistani intelligence that they literally know which officer is lay_____g which military nurse.Non commissioned officer operatives are roving all over the city on their motor cycles reporting on every petty matter like pilferage of fuel , pilferage of rations and the sex life of all officers and military nurses. Seen in this context the failure to detect Osama Bin Laden for five years is mind boggling . Something which was not beyond the control of Pakistani military as well as civilian intelligence and by this I mean the Intelligence Bureau. This required no stealth technology , no sattellites and no drones ! Now comparing this with 9/11 or Bombay Attacks is also fallacious.9/11 , 11/26 AND 7/7 were intelligence failures but flash failures spread over hours and not years as was the Kakul failure. To compare these with the Kakul failure is fallacious and illogical. Now the second major failure i.e failure to contain US intelligence from penetrating

Pakistan.This too was not beyond the control of Pakistani intelligence.

Here again there was failure of Pakistani intelligence in Kakul and the NWFP at ISI sector level , on part of the military intelligence at corps intelligence battalion level and by the military intelligence at the provincial level.All these set ups are manned by brigadiers and colonels . In assessing a failure the level of failure has to be ascertained.In 1965 the Pakistani intelligence failure was at top Military intelligence level .Similar was 1983-84 Siachen failure. In Kakul the failure was at sector and battalion level . The airforce failure ,the military reaction to the raid failure all happened because of the intelligence failure. Whlle Pakistans ambassadors actions of issuing visas without intelligence clearance was a disgraceful act Pakistani intelligences failure to trail and interdict US intelligence operatives inside Pakistan was a clear failure of counter intelligence.There can be no second opinion about it. Having said that it is a foregone conclusion that no one will be held accountable because Pakistan is not a state with an army but an army with a state . Pakistan will only pay the price of these failures with defeat in war and final disintegration which may not be far away !

US Strategy in Afghanistan Revisited-Why the USA Loves Haqqani by Agha.H.Amin

With friend and co author Colonel David Osinski (Retired) at Kabul

It is common to hear in the news that the USA wants Pakistan to eliminate the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Highest level US officials from CIA ,JCS,State Department and US House of representatives claim that the Haqqani network is the principal threat to peace in Afghanistan and to US forces in Afghanistan. Two hard facts disprove the above assertions widely held as the

Gospel truths by US administration . First a map of Afghanistan which will enable a man to do a quick logistic appreciation and second and most important US casualties being suffered in Afghanistan. The US is attacking by drone North and South Waziristan Agencies of Pakistans FATA region since 2005 or may be earlier. Both the areas have no connection with the areas of Afghanistan where the maximum fighting has taken place in Afghanistan since 2001 and where maximum number of US as well as NATO fatal casualties have occurred. Click on these maps to enlarge

These above maps are self explanatory.

The table above shows that just 7 US personnel died in Khost and Paktika provinces opposite North Waziristan in 2011 . Even if we calculate all US and NATO casualties suffered in Afghanistan since 2001 just 138 US personnel died out of a total of 1533 in Afghanistan.

Maximum US/NATO fatal casualties were in Helmand and Kandahar which have no connection with Haqqani .Helmand being 722 and Kandahar 369. Why this US misconception or misjudgement or paradoxical policy ? There are three main reasons for this Haqqani obessed Haqqania mindset of the US !

Reason Number One I discovered the talent of Haqqani networks in explosive when a loud bang on the evening of 30th August 2004 shook the house where I lived in sometimes in the evening !

I had just taken two small singles of scotch and was preparing to have more with my dear friend Professor Abdul Rasul Amin who had sometimes before been sacked by Karzai from the post of education minister. On the way we discovered that Dyncorps a supposed security

company had been attacked in Shahr e Nau with a truck bomb which had killed three or more Americans and three or more Nepali Gurkha guards. Dyncorps we discovered was largely manned by ex CIA staff and was regarded as a threat by not only the Haqqani network but by some state intelligence agencies also. Dyncorps it was alleged was one of the US DOD contractors dealing with Human Intellience (Humint) in Pakistans tribal areas and possibly against Pakistan as a whole.This was a Pakistani perception.It was hypothesised by Pakistani analysts that Dyncorps had Israeli Americans in large numbers and was a threat to Pakistan. While I did not subscribe to all these views this was the general Pakistani perception . This is when the US war with Haqqani started in the real sense.Since the US decision making set up was CIA dominated Haqqani was blown out of proportion ,while in reality he was the third largest Taliban group commander , the largest being Mullah Omar and the second largest being Hikmatyars Hizbe e Islami an its allies.

The CIA picked Waziristan as its main drone target in Pakistan and some 90 to 95 % of all drone attacks were carried out in South and North Waziristan.

In retaliation of these CIA drone strikes the Haqqani linked Taliban carried out the December 2009 Khost suicide attack which was the single highest fatal casualties suffered by the CIA in its officer cadre since its creation. Second A part of the US strategy is to force the Pakistani military to conduct operations against Pakistani tribals of North and South Waziristan. These are the toughest fighters in Pakistan since they have traditionally been so ! In addition the most trained and hardline extremists from all parts of the world are settled in this area. The US view is that forcing the Pakistani military to fight here would reduce its credibility in the eyes of the Taliban and would weaken the Taliban rear in Pakistan as far as North Afghanistan is concerned.The US is more concerned about North Afghanistan because this includes Kabul the area where Haqqani can most easily carry out an attack.Not many US personnel have died in Kabul since 2001 but Kabul being the capital stands out when attacked while who bothers about Kandahar or Helmand !

However the real fighting is in South Afghanistan in Helmand and Kandahar which have no organisational or logistical link with Haqqani. Third Forcing Pakistan to attack North Waziristan is a US arm twisting tactic to continuously embarass the Pakistani state and to divert the US public attention to North Waziristan as the source of all troubles thereby hiding US military failure in South Afghanistan. Militarily Haqqani is smaller than Mullah Omar and Hekmatyar Group and thus a relatively easier target. Since he is mostly in Pakistan only the Pakistani military regarded as cheaper in value will suffer casualties while the US peacefully engages the much larger Mulla Omar Group which in any case the USA has failed to militarily defeat or even contain. In a larger strategic context the US wants that Pakistan should remain unstable so that the Chinese plan for using Gwadar as its main sea outlet as well as oil import inlet is not successful.

This includes Pakistani Balochistan which is being destabilised just to ensure that the Chinese sponsored Gwadar port fails . Since South Afghanistan Taliban are in Afghanistan the US cannot ask the Pakistanis to deal with them. SOME HARD INTELLIGENCE FACTS 1. In 2006 while doing a survey on IEDs and suicide bombings an Afghan intelligence colonel became my friend based on my old contacts with dissidents who had migrated to Kabul in 1973-80.The colonel who was on duty in Wazeer Akbar Khan stated that US Intelligence was constantly in touch with Haqqanis brother and nephew living in the house behind Indira Gandhi Hospital and near the office of Turkish company Cukurova. 2. He stated that he had a personal enmity with Haqqani as he was from Khost and had offered US intelligence 8 figure coordinates of Haqqani for a certain sum but US Intelligence showed no interest in eliminating Haqqani.
19 May, 2011

AL QAEDA STRATEGY -USA-PAKISTAN-SAUDI ARABIA AND SAIF AL ADEL

Saif al-Adel-An Unorthodox and Unconventional Leader By Agha.H.Amin

Saif al-Adel is an experienced low intensity conflict man who has seen his apprenticeship in the Soviet Afghan War. He had a stint with the US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. He is known to be a master of the unorthodox and appears to have read Sun Tzu as well as Sun Pin and Ho Chi Minh.His favourite method of attack are explosives. He left Egypt shortly after the assasination of Sadaat a man most despised by Egyptians in 1981 . After 9/11 he fled to Iran also .And after eating iranian caviar and palao al qaeda and many other sunni extremist groups have discovered that the shias are not as bad as brought out in the much paid by Saudi Arabian propaganda.The way Iran as a state received many Al Qaeda

and Afghan commanders after 9/11 has improved the Iranian perception,while prevalent propaganda mostly saudi sponsored and financed was deadly anti shia.similarly the way in which the pakistani state abandoned them for US dollars significantly diminished the respect for pakistani state in al qaeda eyes (although non state actors wholeheartedly supported and sheltered al qaeda after 9/11 in Pakistan).The post 9/11 Al Qaeda is thus more anti Pakistan and anti Saudi and both states are their logical targets.Any one of these go down (as is the aimed AQ strategy) and all US efforts and money wasted in GWOT can be straight multiplied by zero. He is regarded as close to Iranians as he was in Iran for a long time after 9/11 enjoying official Iranian patronage , a good safe house with ample stocks of Iranian caviar and tuna fish.this makes him more anti saudi and more any anti state.he may bring an ovopen change in al qaeda strategy and intensify the attacks on saudi installations as well as pakistani installations.a younger man who is more into technology and known to have some most unorthodox and unconventional ideas about the ongoing great low intensity war.he will give the corporation a new technical dmension. Demise of Bin Laden has actually given Al Qaeda a new life with a new leader who has no qualms or reservations about attacking Saudi Arabia as well as the Pakistani states.With both states now on the sharp path to decline and both viewed as most despicable and dubious by their own masses , Al Qaeda may now resurge as never before. They have already redeployed in force in Nuristan,Laghman,Kunnar and Kapisa provinces. So we are all set for grand strategic anarchy ! HA HA HA All this was not inevitable but has many links with US faux pas and the most inefficient Saudi and Pakistani states both of which are deeply divided in the war against Al Qaeda. I have had nothing to do with conventional religion all my life but I can say with conviction that both Pakistani and Saudi states are not just equipped or have the capability to fight Al Qaeda ! The question is not whether it will happen or not but only how many more years they will take in collapsing !

My fear is that Pakistan will not be able to turn around and the same is Saudi Arabias fate ! Pakistan is actually almost a suicide bombers factory with ten thousand potential suicide bombers being produced every day , just because of sheer disgust with exorbitant official corruption ,unemployment , inflation and hunger ! The key stone in any war against extremists has to be good governance in countries which are the major areas of operations.This is seriously missing in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan where some 2 % own 80 percent of the wealth and pay just 15 to 20 % of all taxes ! The issue why extremism is growing is not Islam but poverty and lack of equal opportunity ! The reason thus is simply mega corruption and total moral breakdown in both states ! This includes the Pakistani and Saudi armies , intelligence , politicians ,police,para military forces as well as the civil services.

22 June, 2011

Women in Intelligence Operations
Women in Intelligence Operations and Harold Robbins
Agha.H.Amin

I first started reading the adventurers at the age of 15. It is a fascinating book interlaced with a lot of sex which enables a young person to keep reading it. More than that it is a fascinating account of how US diplomacy worked in South America.Here Robbins is a fierce critic of US policy in South and Central America as practised in 1920s , 1930s and as late as 1980s.

The book as far as I can understand is set in Central America.Lakes in that country take me to Nicaragua . Dax whose full name is Diogenes Alexanderos Xenos the hero is something of a Casanova . His sexual adventures with Sue Ann a very lusty young woman are the spice of Robbins.More important is Robbins portrayal of how Machiavellian intrigue , duplicity , mixed or divided loyalties work in low intensity conflicts.In that age in mid 1970s we called it guerrilla warfare. When you end this most powerful novel you become something of a Noam Chomsky in criticising US policies in the Latin America. Robbins takes us into the real , harsh , brutal and ruthless world of guerrilla warfare where no quarter is given or accepted.He does it brilliantly by mixing it with more sensuous accounts of Dax's encounters with Sue Ann and many other tigresses. Harold Robbins can stir you into the highest levels of passion not only at the sexual level but also at the political level. Despised by some detractors as vulgar , Harrold Robbins in reality was a far greater man who had an excellent knowledge of history as well as human nature. My other favourites are his novels on the prohibition years , Stone for Danny Fisher , Stilletto and 79 park Avenue.

This is in the memory of a man who taught us about history and human nature mixed with Sue Ann ! But that is what life is ! Everything in the life of a young man my instructor in the School of Infantry and Tactics Quetta in OctoberDecember 1983 , Captain Zareen Khattak stated revolved around a c____t ! I would say around the life of all men of all ages ! The old being more enthusiastic and eager ! My commander officer in the 11 Cavalry Colonel Mian Liaquat Shah in November 1984 remembered his instructor in the tank gunnery wing at the School of Armour in Nowshera Captain Ejaz Alam (killed in action at Battle of Bara Pind Jarpal in 1971) using some playboy pinups on sliding blackboards before the beginning of each lecture in tank gunnery to arouse the attention level of his gunnery students !

The role of sensual instincts in history is a much neglected subject ! The employment of women has done miracles otherwise impossible ! Thus ISI Brigadier Tirmizi recollected in his book Profiles of Intelligence how the Soviets used a fat ugly looking Slav blond and a few bottles of vodka to buy sensitive state secrets from a Pakistani naval officer who was later court martialled !

As recent as 2004-10 I saw closely how women worked espionage wonders in the Afghan war ! Kabul was oveflooded with Chinese and Central Asian prostitutes and the US Army finally actually started physically raiding Chinese restaurants in kabul which in reality were 200 percent whorehouses. The most lethal were Tajik,Uzbek and Kirgiz women ! I think the Russians had given them good sex education in a 100 or 200 years of occupation ! The Afghans were equally effective although not as sophisticated and advanced as the central asians !

An Afghan friend one day brought a maid for employment ! A stunning looking lady ! On inquiry we found that she was getting 1100 USD in a top 100 US company in Kabul where she worked as a cleaner ! The power of crude sexual instincts I discovered in Kabul when an Afghan high class prostitute got four Afghan passports made in record time , just because she was catering for the tastes of a senior Afghan intelligence colonel who had limited effectiveness , just by fantasising on a cell fone in sessions which lasted for long hours ! She was charging a hefty 700 USD per passport from her clients !

She was ugly looking but she knew the art of fooling men ! The hits in her list of trophies included professors , generals , ambassadors , EU senior most officials,NATO ,JICA,CIDA,SIDA and you name it ! She could get anything done by almost any embassy in Kabul !

An Afghan intelligence colonel recollected over some hard drinks that use of women was an important subject in the Soviet Intelligence School at Tashkent which he attended in early 1980s. Thats what history is ! After all Monica Lewinsky brought a US president real close to being impeached ! Agha.H.Amin -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE ADVENTURERS BY HAROLD ROBBINS

REVIEWED By R. L. MILLER (FT LAUDERDALE FL USA)

Anybody who's read Robbins' recent work like "The Raiders" and "The Predators" would write him off as tawdry, degrading sex and that's about it. But not when you get this far back, gang. In those days, a Robbins book had a story--one you could sink your teeth into. And this one is one of the best. Nothing depresses me more than a book where the protagonist is the least disgusting of a number of slimeballs, and Robbins makes you like this one. Robbins was always best at stories that covered most of his main character's life. "Adventurers" is the epic story of the rise of a Latin American generalissimo from an embattled childhood through a playboy young manhood to the rule of his country. It's a great story, but one word of warning--Robbins has slight deficiencies in portraying nationalities not his own. In the early stages of the story when it's largely set in rural areas of the ficticious South American nation "Corteguay", characters tend to sound like a cross between Speedy Gonzales and Baba Looey. Dax's caretaker/ mentor Gato Gordo ("Fat Cat"), before he was played by Ernest Borgnine in the movie, made me think of the comical Sergeant Garcia from the Disney Zorro series. You almost expect policemen to declare that they don't need no steenkin' badges. In my opinion, once you tune that out, you've got a story on your hands of a magnitude that Robbins himself can't seem to manage anymore.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Harold Robbins (1916-1997) was an American author. He is considered one of the most popular novelists of all time.

Anthologies: Victory (2003) Novels: Never Love a Stranger (1948)

Dream Merchants, the (1949) Stone For Danny Fisher, a (1952) Never Leave Me (1954) 79 Park Avenue (1956) Stiletto (1960) Carpetbaggers, the (1961) Where Love Has Gone (1962) Adventurers, the (1966) Inheritors, the (1969) Betsy, the (1971) Pirate, the (1974) Lonely Lady, the (1976) Dreams Die First (1977) Memories of Another Day (1979) Goodbye, Janette (1981) Spellbinder (1982) Descent From Xanadu (1984) Storyteller, the (1985) Piranhas, the (1986) Raiders, the (1994) Stallion, the (1996) Tycoon (1997) Predators, the (1998) Secret, the (2000) Never Enough (2001) Sin City (2002) Heat of Passion (2003) Betrayers, the (2004) Blood Royal (2005)

Devil to Pay, the (2006) Series: Carpetbaggers Betsy, the Predators Victory

27 July, 2011

The ISI: AN EXCEPTIONAL SECRET SERVICE
I dont think that the ISI is exceptional but let General Asad Durrani be happy if he thinks that. Now the feathers in this outstanding organisations cap---

1. Failed to locate location of Indian Armoured Division in Kashmir. 2. Failed to assess strength of Bengali nationalism and its implications in 1970 elections. 3. Failed to find out 35 miles Indian infiltration in Siachen in 1983-84. 4. Lop sided conduct of Afghan war with no strategy and no vision for areas north of Hindu Kush. 5. Rigged 2002 elections by admission of its own director political Major General Ehtesham Zamir and thus could possibly have rigged 1990 and 1997 elections also. 6. Has failed to correctly assess the Balochistan situation presently. 7. Has emerged out of Osama US raid with shaken credentials and Asad Durrani has confessed that Pakistani military was involved in Osama raid.

Agha

20 August, 2011

A US Army Road Block at Sarobi-Afghanistan

CLICK ON PICTURES TO ENLARGE

Click on photo to enlarge

THE NEXT MORNING

A second roadblock established to pre-empt possible attack on NATO pil tankers-Morning 30 January 2011

OLD RUSSIAN LARGE SCALE MAP OF THE GREAT BEND ON KABUL ROAD THAT WE USED IN CASA 1000 TAJIKISTAN AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION LINE SURVEY IN MAY 2008

03 September, 2011

RUSSIAN MILITARY ROLE IN POST AMERICAN AFGHANISTAN
The Russians already firmly boots on ground are established at Kulyab ,Kurgan Teppe and Dushanbe with air regiments both fixed wing and fixed wing including long range bombers etc as well as two infantry divisions.In any post US Afghan war they will effectively use air power to provide close and strategic air support to the Northern Alliance.They will acquire greater ranges by forward move to Dehdadi and Kunduz as well as Shindand Airbases and possibly also use Bagram and Kabul Air Bases. One key lesson of present Afghan war has been supremacy of air power.All will go well unless the Taliban acquire advanced SAMS like Stingers which only a state actor can supply them. Agha.H.Amin

For a detailed assessment of what may happen in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal see-http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2009/07/new-us-strategy-in-afghanistan-andcamp.html

On the Oxus River at the Tajikistan Afghanistan Border at Bandar Sherkhan with Jagran Zakir a Pashtun from Tagab who was trained at Riga Police Academy,USSR for five years and is also a class ALPHA interpreter in Russian language.His uncle was Afghan Ambassador to USSR in 1980s during the leftist regime.

At the Bearing Point Guest House in Kabul with Ex USSR Diplomat and Afghan specialist Begjan and American friend Greg Polk ,2004 September.Photo taken by Oliver Dziggel Bearing Point,Now Deloite Consulting.Begjan also served in the Field Artillery of the Red Army and was Kazakhastan First Secretary in Kabul Embassy in 2005-6.

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