(% vs USD

)

(bp)

change from 30/12 to 03/04

change from 30/12 to 03/04

20

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
(1)
(2)
(3)

0

(20)

(40)

CNY

IDR

Phil

KRW

Bunds

JPY

THB

AUD

UST

MYR

SGD

INR

TWD

Brazil

Thailand

Indonesia

13

12

11

10

09

08

07

06

05

04

03

02

01

00

99

98

97

96

15

Singapore

20

China

Japan

25

Gen govt

Korea

30

Households
Corporates

US

35

Indonesia
Thailand

EU

40

debt % of GDP

India

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Investment % of GDP
ASEAN avg
Philippines
Malaysia

PHP

CNY

CNH

PHP

EUR

TWD

KRW

ADXY

SGD

MYR

DXY

THB

INR

JPY

IDR
45

AUD

(60)

110

% Dependency Ratio

40

100

20

35
Japan

90

China

Indonesia

Credit % yoy

18

CPI % yoy (RHS)

16

30

80

70

14
12

25

10

60

20

8

50

6

15

40

4
10
2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

30

2

5

0
03

100

4

USD bn

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

USD/IDR (RHS)

13

14

1500

Daily Volume USD bn 1m mavg

75

3

12

50

2

11

25

1

10

0

0

1000

500

10

11

12

13

14

Dec-13

09

Jun-13

08

Dec-12

07

Jun-12

06

Dec-11

05

Jun-11

04

Dec-10

-2
03

0

Jun-10

-50

8

Dec-09

-1

Jun-09

Trade balance (RHS)
Exports % yoy
Imports % yoy

-25

9

130

45

45

120

40

110

35

100

30

90

25

FX reserves USD bn

80
70

15
11

60

7

50

Prabowo

Bakrie

Wiranto

Kalla

Megawati

Jan-14

Jokowi

40

Jan-13

0

Jan-12

3

Jan-11

4

5

Jan-10

10

Jan-09

15

Jan-08

20

Jan-07

50

% yoy 3mma

60

7day repo rate %

10
9

40

20d mvavg

8
7

20

6

0

5
4

-20

3

SEB China Construction Indicator
Completed, Sold
Land purchased, developed (6mma)
New, Current

Apr-14

Jul-13

Jul-12

Jan-14

14

Oct-13

13

Apr-13

12

Jan-13

11

Oct-12

10

Apr-12

09

Jan-12

08

Oct-11

07

Jul-11

-60

2
Apr-11

-40

bn USD 3mma

10

16

5
0

-5
-10

Trade Balance

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

ex oil

-15

16

3mma yoy %

14

2
CPI

0

WPI

0

-2

-20

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

-2
03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

200

debt % of GDP

US Korea 5 year yield spread 100bps

3.0

150

Corp Debt

2.5

Household Debt

2.0

100

1.5

50

1.0
0.5

60

Govt debt % GDP
15.2

50

9.4

ppt change sicne dec 2008 (RHS)

-0.5
05

20
15

8.4

10

40
-1.6

30

0.0

Indonesia

Philippines

India

Brazil

Thailand

Singapore

China

US

Malaysia

EU

Japan

Korea

0

-3.2
-6.8

0
-9.1

-5

Indonesia

Philippines

India

Singapore

-15

China

-10

0

Thailand

10

Korea

16

07

08

09

10

Credit growth % yoy

11

12

13

14

9

CPI % (RHS)

14

6

12

5
-3.0

20

Malaysia

06

3
10

0
8
-3

6

4

-6
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

10

12

10

CPI % yoy

8

Policy rate

6

5yr govt yield %

8

Philippines BOP % of GDP

4

2

6

0

4

-2

2

-4

Current Account

0

Portfolio Investment

FDI

-6

07

9

08

09

10

CPI % YoY

8

11

12

13

14

125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112

MAS Core CPI

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

05

12

13

14

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

SEB SGD NEER

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14

06

30

Credit% yoy 3mma

Taipei Property prices

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50

% yoy 3mma

bn USD
Trade Balance (RHS)
Exports (LHS)
Imports (LHS)

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5

(% vs USD)

(%)

change from 07/03 to 08/04

return from 07/03 to 08/04

8

4

6

3

4

2

2
0

1

20

(bp)

change from 07/03 to 08/04

15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)

PHP

Bunds

IDR

AUD

KRW

TWD

UST

JPY

MYR

SGD

INR

THB

CNY

(20)

10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(8)
(10)
(12)

Nikkei

HSI

SPX

KLCI

Kospi

SHCOMP

TWSE

SENSEX

MSCIAxJ

STI

SET

PCOMP

(%)

CNY

IDR

THB

IDR

Bunds

AUD

TWD

KRW

JPY

CNY

UST

INR

MYR

THB

PHP

SGD

(20)

Bunds

(15)

JPY

(5)

(10)

AUD

0

TWD

5

change from 07/03 to 08/04

KRW

10

(bp)

INR

15

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)
(20)

UST

CNH

PHP

CNY

DXY

EUR

TWD

change from 07/03 to 08/04

20

PHP

(bp)

ADXY

THB

MYR

SGD

KRW

INR

JPY

IDR

AUD

(2)

MYR

(6)
JCI

(1)

SGD

(4)

HSCEI

0

Euro Stoxx

(2)

change from 07/03 to 08/04
7.2

-0.3

Nat gas

Palm oil

-2.3

-2.8

Gold

Oil brent

-9.9
Copper

8

(ppts)

(%)
8/4/2014

7/3/2014

change over the last 1mth, (rhs)

5

6

4

4

3
2

2

1

0

0
(1)

(2)

(2)

(%)
8/4/2014

12

7/3/2014

TWD

PHP

JPY

HKD

EUR

SGD

MYR

CNH

KRW

THB

CNY

AUD

IDR

(3)

INR

(4)

14

6

(ppts)
change over the last 1mth, (rhs)

2

10
8
6

0

4

2
0
(2)

1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

CNY

CNH

TWD

3.5

(%)

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
1M

2.5

SGD

PHP

EUR

THB

MYR

KRW

AUD

JPY

IDR

(2)

INR

(4)

3M

6M

9M

0.5
12M

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

(%)

2.0

0.0
Mar-13

3.0

Implied
Jun-13

Sep-13

Implied

Realized
Dec-13

Apr-14

Realized

2.5
2.0

1.5

1.5
1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.0
1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

0.0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

(%)

4.0

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

6.27

3.0

6.24

2.0

6.21

1.0

6.18

0.0

6.15

-1.0

6.12
Spot

1M

3M

7.77

6M

9M

12M

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

7.76

7.75

-2.0
1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

0.00

0.7

-0.02

Current (08-Apr )

0.6

-0.04

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

0.5

-0.06

0.4

-0.08

0.3

-0.10

0.2

-0.12

0.1

-0.14

7.74

1M

Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

12,400

Current (08-Apr )

12,200

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

11,800
11,600
11,400
11,200

11,000
1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

10.0 (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0

12

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

65

9M

12M

Realized

15
10

Current (08-Apr )

5

1-mth ago (07-Mar )
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

3M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

25
20

8

63

Implied

20

10

64

Realized

0.0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

25

1M

66

6M

12M

12,000

Spot

3M

Implied

15

6

62

10

4

Current (08-Apr )

60

2

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

59

0

61

Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

1,090
1,080
1,070
1,060

1,050
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

1,040
1,030
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

1M

12M

12M

10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6

3M

(%)

6M

9M

5

12M

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

Implied
Realized
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

16

Implied

Realized

12
8
4

1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

3.35

3.30
3.25

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

3.20
3.15

3.10
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3

(%)

12

45.0
44.8
44.6
44.4

Current (08-Apr )

44.2

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

44.0
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0

6
3

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

1.270

0.00

1.265

-0.01

1.260

-0.02

1.255

-0.03

1.250

-0.04

1.240

Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

33.0

10

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
3M

2.0

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

31.8

Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

12M

4
2
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

10
Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

Implied

Realized

8
6
4
2

3M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

Current (08-Apr )

4.0

32.4

Realized

6

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

32.8
3.0

Implied

8

1M

32.6

0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

12M

-0.06

5.0

32.0

9M

(%)

12M

33.2

32.2

6M

-0.05

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

1.245

3M

1M

12M

Realized

9

1M

45.2

Implied

1.0
0.0

1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

9
Implied
Realized
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

0.0

30.5

(%)

8

Implied

Realized

-1.0
30.0

6

-2.0
-3.0

29.5

4

-4.0
Current (08-Apr )

29.0

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

-5.0

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

-6.0
-7.0

28.5
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

1M

12M

0.03

1.388

3M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

2
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

12

0.03

1.385

9

0.02

1.383

0.02

6

0.01

1.380

0.01

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

1.377
1.374
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

-0.01
1M

0.0

103.0

-0.1

102.5

-0.1

102.0

-0.2

101.5
101.0

Current (08-Apr )

-0.2

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

-0.3

3M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )

100.5
Spot 1M

3M

6M

9M 12M

-0.3
1M

3.0

0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.88
0.87
0.86
0.85

Implied

Realized

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

12M

103.5

3

Current (08-Apr )

0.00

3M

6M

9M

12M

(%)

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Implied
Realized
2
0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

15

Current (08-Apr )

2.5

0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

12

1-mth ago (07-Mar )

2.0

9

1.5

6

1.0

Current (08-Apr )
1-mth ago (07-Mar )
Spot

1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

0.5

3

0.0

0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Apr-14

1M

3M

6M

9M

12M

Implied

Realized

FX
USD/CNY
USD/CNH
USD/HKD
USD/IDR
USD/INR
USD/KRW
USD/MYR
USD/PHP
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/TWD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
EUR/SEK
EUR/NOK
AUD/USD

Spot
6.21
6.21
7.75
11,356
60.3
1038
3.23
44.5
1.25
32.2
30.0
1.38
102
8.99
8.22
0.94

2Q
6.15
6.15
7.80
11,600
60.0
1050
3.30
45.5
1.26
33.2
30.3
1.35
106
8.70
8.45
0.95

3Q
6.00
6.00
7.80
11,500
60.0
1040
3.20
44.0
1.24
33.0
29.4
1.30
110
8.60
8.50
0.91

4Q2014
5.90
5.90
7.80
11,400
59.0
1020
3.17
43.5
1.21
32.5
29.0
1.28
112
8.50
8.50
0.90

1Q2015
6.00
6.00
7.80
11,200
59.0
1020
3.17
43.5
1.21
32.5
29.0
1.28
112
8.50
8.50
0.85

Policy Rates
CH lending
CH deposit
Korea
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Taiwan

Current
6.00
3.00
2.50
8.00
7.50
3.00
3.50
2.00
1.88

2Q
6.00
3.00
2.50
8.25
7.50
3.00
3.50
1.75
1.88

3Q
5.75
3.25
2.50
8.25
8.00
3.25
4.00
1.75
1.88

4Q2014
5.75
3.25
2.75
8.25
8.00
3.50
4.00
1.75
1.88

1Q2015
5.50
3.50
2.75
8.00
8.00
3.75
4.00
1.75
2.00

US
EU
SW
NO
AU

0.25
0.25
0.75
1.50
2.50

0.25
0.25
0.75
1.50
2.50

0.25
0.25
1.00
1.50
2.50

0.25
0.25
1.00
1.75
2.50

0.25
0.25
1.00
1.75
2.50

Real GDP % yoy
China
India
Indonesia
Korea
Singapore

2011
9.3
7.5
6.5
3.6
5.3

2012
7.7
5.4
6.2
2.0
1.3

2013
7.7
4.7
5.6
2.8
3.2

2014
7.2
5.0
5.3
3.6
4.0

2015
7.0
5.4
5.5
3.5
3.8

US
Euro zone
Sweden
Norway

1.8
1.6
3.7
1.2

2.8
-0.7
1.0
3.1

1.7
-0.4
0.7
0.9

3.1
0.8
2.5
2.4

3.7
1.6
3.2
2.1

CPI % yoy
China
India WPI
Indonesia
Korea
Singapore

2011
3.3
9.5
5.1
4.2
2.8

2012
3.5
6.5
4.3
1.4
4.5

2013
2.7
6.2
7.2
1.3
2.4

2014
3.1
5.6
6.8
2.2
2.9

2015
3.2
5.2
5.5
2.3
2.6

US
Euro zone
Sweden
Norway

3.1
2.7
3.0
1.2

2.1
2.5
0.9
0.8

1.6
1.3
0.0
2.2

1.6
0.6
0.6
2.0

2.2
0.6
1.9
2.1