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River Cities Reader Vol. 21 No. 855 May 1-14, 2014 3 Business Politics Arts Culture Now You Know RiverCitiesReader.com
Pat Quinn barely won his last election against a
Republican candidate who had almost no field
operation. Every vote that Rauner can turn out at
the precinct level is a vote that gets him closer to
victory.
And that Rauner push could
have a significant trickle-down
effect on state-legislative races
particularly in the Illinois House,
where there are more competitive
contests.
Even so, Republicans
shouldnt expect any miracles this
November.
A study published earlier this
year by Washington University
in St. Louis took a look at
gerrymandering deliberately
partisan drawing of congressional districts and
found that examining the data in two different
ways produced the same result.
Every one-percentage-point increase in vote
share over 50 percent produced about a two-
percentage-point increase in the number of seats
the ruling party won. So winning 55 percent of
the vote will generally yield about 60 percent of
the seats.
Now compare that to the Illinois results. I
asked the Yes for Independent Maps coalition in
O
ut of power for a dozen years and hobbled
even before that by anti-patronage court
rulings, Illinois Republican-party infra-
structure has all but collapsed.
So part of GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce
Rauners task is to try to somehow rebuild a
grassroots infrastructure.
It wont be an easy job. Republicans have
never, in the modern age, been able to match
the Democrats ability to dispatch patronage
armies to the states distant corners because of the
Democrats Chicago and Cook County patronage
bases. The Republicans local organizations are
essentially hollow these days, and they have no
troops to speak of.
Before the primary, Rauners campaign had
ambitious hopes of opening as many as 50 field
offices throughout Illinois. Those plans were
scaled back as reality sank in. Finding enough
experienced people to staff those offices would be
next to impossible.
Its unknown at this time, even apparently
to the Rauner campaign, just how many offices
it plans to open and where. The candidate has
enough cash to do pretty much whatever he
wants. The problem, as noted above, is finding
people to do the job.
But if his campaign can get this project off the
ground, it could be a game-changer. Governor
GOP Fighting Uphill Battle with Gerrymandered Districts
by Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
ILLINOIS POLITICS
Rauner has
enough cash
to do whatever
he wants. The
problem is
finding people.
March to count up the number of votes that all
Democratic legislative candidates received so I
could compare that to the number of legislative
seats the Democrats won. The coalition is
attempting to place a constitutional amendment
on the ballot this November that
would try to take some of the
partisan politics out of the states
redistricting process. So while they
do have motives, the numbers are
the numbers.
The results were astonishing, as
first revealed in my Crains Chicago
Business column. They far exceed
that historic national trend.
According to the remap
coalitions count, Democrats
received 53 percent of all the votes
cast in Illinois House races. Using the WashU
study, the House Democrats should historically
hope to receive 56 percent of the seats, but they
won 60 percent in 2012.
Of course, the Democrats completely control
the map process here. Nationally, the Republicans
dont control every states remap process. So there
would be an expected bump here.
But the numbers in the Senate were even
more dramatic. Senate Democratic candidates
won a total of 52 percent of the vote. That would
translate historically into 54 percent of the seats,
but the party won 68 percent of all Senate seats.
Having President Obama at the top of the
ticket surely helped the Democrats last time
around. For example, Obama spent a kings
ransom in Iowa, which drove Democratic turnout
way up in the district of Senator Mike Jacobs
(D-East Moline) just across the Mississippi
River.
Obamas success here even helped Democrats
win a district that was drawn to benefit a
Republican. The House Dems pulled their staff
out of the Kankakee-areas 79th District after
Republican spending neared a million dollars, but
the drastically outspent Democrat Kate Cloonen
ended up pulling off a stunning upset, winning
by 91 votes.
So not all those 2012 wins can be attributed to
the map. The Republicans were fighting straight
uphill with Obama at the top shooting down.
However, Obama wont be on the ballot this
year. Voter unrest is obviously quite high yet again
in the presidents second off-year election, so
well soon see just how solidly Democratic those
district maps really are. My guess is theyll hold
up pretty well.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax (a daily
political newsletter) and CapitolFax.com.
River Cities Reader Vol. 21 No. 855 May 1-14, 2014 4 Business Politics Arts Culture Now You Know RiverCitiesReader.com
it had broad support in the Senate, and the
current House version of the amendment
has 38 sponsors including Quad Cities-
area representatives Mike Smiddy and Pat
Verschoore.
But on April 29, it was declared all but
dead. Lacking the 71 votes necessary for
passage in the House, the constitutional
amendment wasnt even called for a vote in
the Senate as its sponsor had planned.
In a sense, the legislative debate has died
before it even began. The constitutional-
amendment referendum is merely the
foundation for the substance of the
proposal the actual rates that would
be imposed in a graduated-income-tax
system.
Proponents of the Fair Tax proposal
correctly believe that companion legislation
setting income-tax rates is essential; its
unrealistic to expect citizens to approve the
constitutional change without knowing its
exact effect on their pocketbooks.
As Kelly Steele, communications director
for A Better Illinois, said: Voters are
going to know in November what theyre
voting on, in terms of This will be my tax
rate. (A Better Illinois a large coalition
encompassing organized labor, faith
organizations, liberal advocacy groups, and
social services has spearheaded the push
for the Fair Tax.)
Illinois Fair Tax Plan Could and Should Have Been an Easier Sell
Creating a New Monster
H
ow would you like a cut in your
income taxes while protecting fund-
ing for education and public safety?
Or how would you like the Illinois
General Assembly to stick it to you by
making permanent the income-tax increase
of 2011 that is supposed to (mostly) expire
next year?
Lucky you: In a bizarre set of
circumstances, a Fair Tax proposal would
give you both! Ninety-four percent of
Illinois taxpayers would see their income
taxes drop in 2015, while lawmakers
wouldnt have to make the tough budgetary
choices they promised to. Win-win!
Sound confusing? It is. Sound
impossible? It isnt.
Bear with me, and Ill explain how the
legislature specifically Democrats faced
with two highly unattractive options in
an election year devised a third way
thats not really a third way at all. Its
merely a variation on one of those highly
unattractive options, but its been cleverly
packaged on the assumption that voters
have short memories.
This gambit is technically still in play,
but on Tuesday it looked nearly certain
that it lacked the legislative votes to move
forward to a November referendum. If
it has indeed died for 2014, let this be a
cautionary tale about the perils of broken
pledges and attempts at marketing them
as something positive.
And if the plan finds new life in the next
few days, its essential that lawmakers and
voters understand what it really is.
Fundamentally, the Fair Tax proposal
would make permanent the revenue from
the temporary income-tax increase of
2011 while using a graduated-rate structure
to shift more of the burden to higher
incomes. Whether it represents a tax cut is
less a matter of debate than definitions and
assumptions.
Think of it like this: Elected
representatives would take a bigger chunk
of your paycheck than they promised they
would, and then they would give a portion
of that amount back and ask you to thank
them for the tax cut.
A Trap of Their Own Making
The Fair Tax is admittedly a smart play,
yet its also full of hubris which I expect
will be the source of its ultimate downfall.
Instead of trying to find some compromise
on revenue, the Fair Tax is an attempt by
Democrats to extract themselves from a
trap of their own making without paying a
price at the ballot box.
First, they positioned the debate on
taxation as a false binary choice: Allow the
income-tax rate to drop to its scheduled
3.75 percent next year and face deep budget
cuts, or continue the current 5-percent rate
and avoid the budget doomsday. Then they
disingenuously promoted the graduated-
tax-rate Fair Tax proposal as a painless
alternative: Nearly everybody gets tax
cuts (but dont look too closely), while the
General Assembly avoids difficult decisions
on state spending.
This is a critical week for the proposal.
A constitutional amendment faces a
May 4 deadline to get a referendum on
the November ballot, and the General
Assemblys schedule gives it an effective
deadline of May 1.
The constitutional amendment would,
by itself, have no effect on the income
taxes citizens and businesses pay. Rather,
it would eliminate the constitutions
requirement of a flat tax applied to income
and instead allow graduated rates in
other words, higher income-tax rates on
people and businesses with more income.
Proponents said last week that they were
cautiously optimistic about the prospects
of getting the required super-majorities
in both chambers of the legislature for the
constitutional amendment. They claimed
So the constitutional amendment needs
to be evaluated in conjunction with the
current rate-structure proposal by Senator
Don Harmon which is the basis of claims
that 94 percent of taxpayers would see their
income-tax bills drop in 2015.
Regardless of what happens in the
legislature, the Fair Tax proposal both
the constitutional amendment and
the proposed rate structure is worth
exploring.
If both the amendment and rate-
structure bills somehow pass the General
Assembly, voters of course will need
to be able to cut through the spin and
understand whats at stake before voting in
November.
If, on the other hand, the constitutional
amendment doesnt make the November
ballot, the idea of a graduated income-tax
system in Illinois could certainly return.
But more importantly, its instructive to
see how a lack of imagination or perhaps
a refusal to find middle ground on revenue
that would have required significant
budget-tightening made the Fair Tax a
tougher choice than it needed to be. If the
5-percent and 3.75-percent tax options
are monsters lurking behind the doors,
the current Fair Tax plan represents yet
another scary beast.
Put simply, the third way should and
could have been far less terrifying to both
legislators and voters.
Avoiding Armageddon
In January 2011, the Illinois General
Assembly passed an income-tax hike that
raised the rate from 3 percent to 5 percent
retroactive to the first of the year. On
January 1, 2015, its scheduled to drop to
3.75 percent. The 5-percent rate was, they
promised, temporary. (Skeptics of this
pledge were plentiful.)
Now doomsday has arrived, and
Democrats didnt plan well for it even
though they knew it was coming the
moment they approved the tax hike.
If the income-tax rate is allowed to
drop to 3.75 percent, its Armageddon
for the Illinois budget. The change would
take effect at the midpoint of Fiscal Year
2015, and it would necessitate serious
budget cuts. In February, the House passed
revenue estimates for Fiscal Year 2015
showing a $2.2-billion hole compared to
the current fiscal years $36.7 billion in
revenue. In future fiscal years, of course,
the budget shortfall compared to the
current fiscal year would be even larger.
COVER STORY
Net income Pre-2011
3% Rate
Scheduled 2015
3.75% Rate
Fair Tax Current
5% Rate
$10,000 $300 $375 $290 $500
$20,000 $600 $750 $730 $1,000
$30,000 $900 $1,125 $1,220 $1,500
$40,000 $1,200 $1,500 $1,710 $2,000
$50,000 $1,500 $1,875 $2,200 $2,500
$100,000 $3,000 $3,750 $4,650 $5,000
$150,000 $4,500 $5,625 $7,100 $7,500
$200,000 $6,000 $7,500 $9,950 $10,000
$300,000 $9,000 $11,250 $16,850 $15,000
$400,000 $12,000 $15,000 $23,750 $20,000
$500,000 $15,000 $18,750 $30,650 $25,000
$1,000,000 $30,000 $37,500 $65,150 $50,000
Understanding the Fair Tax Proposal
Senator Don Harmons Fair Tax rate structure is being promoted as a tax cut
for 94 percent of Illinois taxpayers. But thats only true compared to the current
5-percent income-tax rate which is scheduled to drop to 3.75 percent on
January 1. Comparing the proposal to the current rate results in a tax cut for all
net-income levels below $202,632. However, comparing the proposal to the
scheduled rate results in a tax cut for only net-income levels below $21,739.
River Cities Reader Vol. 21 No. 855 May 1-14, 2014 5 Business Politics Arts Culture Now You Know RiverCitiesReader.com
by Jeff Ignatius
jeff@rcreader.com
So if, as promised, the income-tax rate
drops, Democrats will have to make hard
budget choices, and then explain cuts
to state spending and services to their
constituents. Take this projected scenario
with a large grain of salt, but A Better
Illinois is warning voters that cuts could
include laying off 13,400 teachers from
the classroom; taking 95,000 kids out of
early-childhood education; saying no to
30,000 college students wishing to get a
MAP grant; closing 11 correctional centers
and releasing 15,000 inmates; laying off
3,000 correctional officers; and cutting
state police by 30 percent. Proponents of
the Fair Tax also argue that property taxes
would likely increase across the state.
Alternatively, the Democrats who
control both chambers of the legislature
and the governors office could opt
to extend the current 5-percent rate
indefinitely or for a set period of time.
This would prevent spending cuts, but
it would also result in an uncomfortable
day of reckoning at the polls; Democratic
legislators would have some serious
explaining to do, and it would likely fall on
many deaf ears.
Enter the Fair Tax proposal and its two
core components.
First is the November referendum to
amend the state Constitution allowing the
state to levy a graduated income tax.
Steele said the issue is tax fairness:
If Illinoisans decide they want to tax
millionaires at a higher rate than they tax
minimum-wage workers, thats something
theyre allowed to do [under the proposed
amendment]. In the status quo, that
provision in the constitution prevents that.
He added that the current constitutional
mandate of a flat income tax puts an
economic straitjacket on legislators,
where theyre only able to give tax relief to
somebody who makes minimum wage or
even a middle-class family if also they give
large tax cuts equal tax cuts to someone
making a million or $50 million a year.
Thats not a taxation system thats based
on ones ability to pay. Its fundamentally
unfair.
The second element of the Fair Tax
proposal is the three-rate structure
proposed by Harmon: 2.9 percent applied
to the first $12,500 of net income, 4.9
percent applied to net income between that
and $180,000, and 6.9 percent applied to
net income over $180,000. (So a taxpayer
with $200,000 of net income would pay
2.9 percent on $12,500, 4.9 percent on
$167,500, and 6.9 percent on $20,000.)
Harmons rate structure, Steele said,
generates stable and sustainable revenue
that would prevent the draconian cuts to
vital investments in things like education,
health care, [and] public safety that will
happen if we go over a fiscal cliff and just
allow the 2011 tax rates to expire.
And therein lies the crux of the Fair Tax
problem. A key feature of Harmons rate
structure is that its essentially revenue-
neutral for the state which is a major
selling point for legislators in this cash-
strapped state but which also makes it a
bitter pill for conscientious citizens. At
heart, Harmons structure would make
permanent the revenue from the temporary
tax hike, and sly marketing promoting tax
cuts for nearly everybody cant erase that
simple fact. The income-tax burden would
be shifted to taxpayers earning north of
$200,000, but it wouldnt be lessened.
Kristina Rasmussen, executive vice
president of the conservative Illinois Policy
Institute, called it a bait and switch,
and while thats a loaded term, its also
technically true. Despite the tax-cut claims,
the Fair Tax plans core goal is to replace,
dollar for dollar, revenue from the income-
tax hike that is set to expire at the end of
this year. Theyre trying to get out of the
promise of tax relief for all Illinoisans next
year, she said.
Underlying the Fair Tax plan, then, is the
hope that voters will see the amount theyre
paying next year as a reduction from 2014
levels and forget that they were told in
2011 that theyd be paying significantly less
come 2015.
So the spin battle is between whether
the proposal should be considered in the
context of the current 5-percent rate or the
scheduled 3.75 percent. Depending on the
angle from which its viewed, its either a
modest tax cut compared to what the vast
majority of people are currently paying, or
its a tax hike for all but the lowest income
levels compared to what taxpayers were
promised theyd pay starting in 2015.
And it is a spin battle.
A May 2013 poll by A Better Illinois
showed 77-percent support for the
amendment ballot language: Allow fair
tax for individuals and corporations where
higher rates apply to higher income levels
and lower rates to lower income levels.
But that only takes into account one
element of the Fair Tax proposal. It doesnt
deal with the scheduled 2015 income-
tax-rate reduction, the possibility that the
Continued On Page 16
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River Cities Reader Vol. 21 No. 855 May 1-14, 2014 6 Business Politics Arts Culture Now You Know RiverCitiesReader.com
Vol. 21 No. 855
May 1- 14, 2014
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O
n May 4, in an event co-
sponsored by the Jewish
Federation of the Quad
Cities, the Figge Art Museum will
host the screenings of a feature-
length documentary and seven
shorter works, all of them by
award-winning Israeli filmmakers.
Yet if the you enter the Video Art
from Israel: A One-Day Sensory
Experience presentation with
preconceived notions about the
films collective subject matter
anticipating explorations of Israels
foreign policy, say, or the countrys
ongoing struggle with Palestine youre
likely to be in for a surprise or two. Or
eight.
You wont, for example, be expecting
Ben Hagaris Invert, a visually ravishing
short involving a man and his parrot in
which all of the films colors are replaced
with their complementary equivalents
black for white, red for green, et
cetera and all of the dialogue is spoken
backwards. Or Yael Efratis and Ayelet
Ben Dors Double Conspiracies Outside
My Doorstep, an entertaining black-
and-white piece employing animation
and stop-motion photography on the
proliferation of stray cats in Tel Aviv.
Or program curator Keren Shavits
Oryctolagus Cuniculus, which provides
a detailed look at the pressures and
prodding experienced by contestants in
a beauty pageant a beauty pageant for
rabbits.
I knew from the start, said Shavit via
e-mail earlier this week, that I wanted
to present works that deal with reality in
Israel in its various aspects, even if it is
an imagined reality. However, my intent
was to select works that dont necessarily
carry a political statement or deal with
the ongoing conflicts we see and read
about in the news, as these are mostly the
types of works that receive international
exposure. I wanted people to get a new
and fresh experience in regards to Israeli
art.
A 2002 graduate of the Bezalel
Academy of Arts & Design Jerusalem,
and a current faculty member at New
Parrots and Cats and a Pageant for Bunnies
by Mike Schulz
mike@rcreader.com
Yorks School of Visual Arts, mixed-
media artist and Brooklyn resident Shavit
has had her own video art screened
at film festivals in countries including
Iceland, Norway, Germany, Canada,
and China, and one of her experimental
works was a 2013 prize winner at the
Jerusalem Film Festival.
Consequently, she said, after several
visits abroad, I decided I would like to
curate programs of Israeli artists, as well
as organize international art programs
of collaboration and exchange between
different countries and cultures. The
responses [to my work] in other countries
always intrigued me, especially where
there seemed to be little knowledge, or no
knowledge at all, about Israeli art.
If Shavits name and field of interest
seem familiar to local video-art
aficionados, it might be because one of
those programs, titled Pizza Face Eating
Falafel, was screened at Rock Islands
Rozz-Tox venue last April.
Said Shavit of the presentation:
It was a traveling program created
collaboratively with the production
manager of Haifa Museum of Art in
Israel, Michal Ribinstein. The two of us
curated an eclectic selection of video
works by several contemporary Israeli
artists, and the works we selected dealt
with ideas and forms of familiar domestic
environments, the alienation of daily
routine, conflicts of urbanism, and the
deconstruction of personal and collective
ideals. (Adding a smiley-face emoticon
to the sentences end, Shavit added, The
works were also full of dark humor.)
During Shavits area visit as
curator of Pizza Face Eating Falafel,
she said, I became curious about
the Jewish community in the Quad
Cities, and together with my host,
Benjamin Fawks, we went to the
Jewish Federation, where I met
[executive director] Allan G. Ross.
It really moved me to learn of the
Jewish community there, and I
was hoping to design a program of
Israeli art and bring it to the Quad
Cities.
With Ross and the Jewish
Federations support, Shavit was
consequently asked to curate another
film presentation for the area, and she
said, I was very happy and honored
when the Figge Museum agreed to host
the program. She was also somewhat
intimidated, adding, Curating is always
a complex job. The process of putting
together a collection of Israeli video art
and experimental films required a lot of
collecting and filtering.
The centerpiece for Shavits Video
Art from Israel program wound up
being director Ran Tals 70-minute
documentary Children of the Sun, which
Variety magazine called a crowd-pleaser
and a fascinating collage of archival
materials. An exploration of the first
generation of kibbutz children separated
from their parents and raised under
the Israeli communal child-rearing
education program that prevailed
through the 1980s, Tals film was the
winner of Best Israeli Documentary
and Best Editing citations at the 2007
Jerusalem Film Festival, and received
Best Documentary laurels at the 2008
Ophir Awards (generally referred to as
the Israeli Oscars).
Yet the incredible diversity of Video
Art from Israel is best exemplified within
the programs selection of short films.
Two of them 2007s Mother Economy
and 2011s Black & White Rule are by
Israeli filmmaker Maya Zack and boast
the sort of crystalline visual panache one
might associate with David Fincher, or
Video Art from Israel, May 4 at the Figge
Continued On Page 16
Ben Hagari's Invert
ART
River Cities Reader Vol. 21 No. 855 May 1-14, 2014 7 Business Politics Arts Culture Now You Know RiverCitiesReader.com
W
ith the
Water
Liarss
self-titled album
the bands third
record in as many
years you could
be forgiven for
thinking that
youre in for a
jarring ride based
on the song titles and the opening tracks
bleak but majestic riff. Cannibal is fol-
lowed by War Paint and I Want Blood.
You are in for a ride, although its
less the beat-down and carnage that the
titles suggest than a careening from loud
distortion to gentle Americana and back.
Ray Charles Dream is a hooky, punk-
tinged rock song sandwiched between
the slow-footed guitar lament of Tolling
Bells and the even-slower-footed piano
lament of Vespers.
Thats always been sort of a point for
us, said singer/songwriter/guitarist Justin
Kinkel-Schuster in a phone interview
last week, promoting the trios May
14 performance at Rozz-Tox. Widely
shifting dynamics has always been an
important part of our sound ... both
live and on records. ... I just always am
intrigued by moving between those poles.
Theres something interesting about
taking a ride like that.
Its not merely a sonic roller coaster.
The title and sentiment of I Want Blood
(I want blood all the time) would seem
to lend themselves to a ravenous rock
treatment, but the song instead places
the lyrics in a warm and ethereal musical
context, making it a reverb-heavy anthem
to searching and soaring. Tension is why
art exists, Kinkel-Schuster explained of
the apparent contradiction. Without
tension, I dont think theres a whole lot to
go on. ... Without tension you dont have
a story; theres nothing to resolve.
By the light folk of the fourth song,
Swannanoa, its evident that the band
possess an unusual capacity to surprise
and confound without alienating
listeners. No matter what mode Water
Liars which also features drummer
Andrew Bryant and bassist G.R.
Robinson operates in, its able to craft
something convincing and unforced.
Part of that, surely, is because nothing
is forced. Kinkel-Schuster said the
bands debut, 2012s Phantom Limb, was
essentially an accident, the fruits of he
and Bryant getting together initially to
see what happened. Last years Wyoming
was also recorded
quickly, the result
of the duo crafting
detailed demos
before heading
into the studio.
The band spent
(relatively) more
time working
on Water Liars
but it was still
recorded in three sessions and mixed in
another. Compared to what wed done
with the records before, it was at least
twice as long, but still altogether it was
only about 10 days of work, Kinkel-
Schuster said. Both Andrew and I, thats
how we work best. We dont really like to
mess around. ... Im less cerebral about
the recording process than I think most
people are. ... Its essentially still magic to
me.
Unlike with Wyoming, Water Liars
went into the studio this time with
acoustic demos but no final arrangements
which Kinkel-Schuster and Bryant
typically work on together. We just
wanted to give ourselves more time
to think and work and see if theres
some other places we can take the
arrangements of the songs, the singer
said. I was just at a point where I wanted
us to try a few different sounds and see
what exactly we could do with them. The
process of Water Liars, he said, added an
element of discovering the songs as we
got into them.
PopMatters.com wrote that taken as
a lone release, Water Liars is the bands
strongest outing, formalizing their
distinct sound. But it added: Having
worked their sound across three albums,
this approach is bordering on the
formulaic.
Kinkel-Schuster seemed to agree,
saying that fans shouldnt expect a fourth
record to arrive early next year as Water
Liars career to this point would suggest.
Were definitely hanging back on it, he
said. Working so quickly, weve sort of
bypassed the opportunity to grow and
change the way the records sound. I think
its time to do that.
Water Liars will perform on Wednesday,
May 14, at Rozz-Tox (2108 Third Avenue,
Rock Island; RozzTox.com). The show
starts at 8 p.m. and also features White
Zephyr. Admission is $7.
For more information on Water Liars, visit
WaterLiarsMusic.com.
No Messing Around
Water Liars, May 14 at Rozz-Tox
by Jeff Ignatius
jeff@rcreader.com
MUSIC
Photo by Daniel Drinkard
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