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RUSSIAN NUCLEAR

WEAPONS!
PAST, PRESENT,
AND FUTURE
!"#$%#& () *+,&-
./0"12
!"#" %&'( )%& *+,,-.-
!"#"$ &'( )*+#"$* ,&( &$-*( ,(** .'+/"01$"&2 3&)2/&13#
-$$.455)))67$(1$*8"07$'3"*#92#$"$'$*61(:;6:"/5
<& (1$* $-"# .'+/"01$"&2 0/"0= -*(*6
!"#$"%&'( !"*+'%, -.,"'"*"% /001
23!!-45 5367842 984:;5!<
:4!=> :28!85=> 45? @3=328
!"%AB%. CD /E$.1
8+'"0#
50F%GH%# IJKK
!"# %&#'( #)*+#((#, &- ."&( +#*/+. 0+# ."/(# /1 ."# 02."/+( 0-,
do nol necessaiiIy ieecl lhe ofhciaI poIicy oi posilion of lhe De3
pailnenl of lhe Ainy, lhe Depailnenl of Defense, oi lhe U.S.
Coveinnenl. Aulhois of Slialegic Sludies Inslilule (SSI) pulIica3
.&/-( #-4/5 1266 070,#8&7 1+##,/89 *+/%&,#, ."#5 ,/ -/. ,&(76/(#
cIassihed infoinalion, jeopaidize opeialions secuiily, oi nis3
iepiesenl ofhciaI U.S. poIicy. Such acadenic fieedon enpov3
#+( ."#8 ./ /11#+ -#' 0-, (/8#.&8#( 7/-.+/%#+(&06 *#+(*#7.&%#(
in lhe inleiesl of fuilheiing delale on key issues. This iepoil is
cIeaied foi pulIic ieIease, disliilulion is unIiniled.
:::::
This pulIicalion is suljecl lo TilIe 17, Uniled Slales Code, Sec3
lions 1O1 and 1O5. Il is in lhe pulIic donain and nay nol le copy3
iighled.
&&
:::::
Connenls peilaining lo lhis iepoil aie inviled and shouId
le foivaided lo: Diiecloi, Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy
Wai CoIIege, 632 Wiighl Ave, CaiIisIe, IA 17O13-5O46.
:::::
AII Slialegic Sludies Inslilule (SSI) pulIicalions nay le
dovnIoaded fiee of chaige fion lhe SSI velsile. Haid copies of
lhis iepoil nay aIso le ollained fiee of chaige vhiIe suppIies Iasl
ly pIacing an oidei on lhe SSI velsile. The SSI velsile addiess
is: uuu.S|ra|cgicS|udics|ns|i|u|c.arnq.ni|.
:::::
The Slialegic Sludies Inslilule pulIishes a nonlhIy e-naiI
-#'(6#..#+ ./ 2*,0.# ."# -0.&/-06 (#72+&.5 7/882-&.5 /- ."# +#3
seaich of oui anaIysls, iecenl and foilhconing pulIicalions, and
upconing confeiences sponsoied ly lhe Inslilule. Lach nevsIel3
lei aIso piovides a slialegic connenlaiy ly one of oui ieseaich
anaIysls. If you aie inleiesled in ieceiving lhis nevsIellei, pIease
sulsciile on lhe SSI velsile al uuu.S|ra|cgicS|udics|ns|i|u|c.
arnq.ni|;ncus|c||cr/.
ISN 1-58487-5O4-6
&&&
6;5=85=!
Ioievoid ........................................................................v
Inlioduclion .................................................................vii
S|cpncn ]. 8|an|
Iail I
1. Russian NucIeai and ConvenlionaI Weapons:
The ioken ReIalionship .........................................1
Da|c R. Hcrspring
2. Russias ConvenlionaI Ained Ioices:
Refoin and NucIeai Iosluie lo 2O2O .......33
Rcgcr N. McDcrnc||
Iail II
3. NucIeai Weapons in Russian Slialegy and
Docliine .........................................99
Andrci Sncuni|nin
4. Russias Secuiily ReIalions vilh lhe
Uniled Slales: Iuluies IIanned and
UnpIanned..............................................................161
Patc| K. 8act
5. NucIeai Weapons in Russian NalionaI
Secuiily Slialegy ..............................187
Ni|c|ai Sc|ct
Iail III
6. Caughl lelveen ScyIIa and Chaiyldis: The
ReIalionship lelveen ConvenlionaI and
NucIeai CapaliIilies in Russian MiIilaiy
Thoughl .............................................................261
Danic| Gcurc
7. Russia and NucIeai Weapons..............................293
S|cpncn ]. 8|an|
8. Russian TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons: Cuiienl
IoIicies and Iuluie Tiends..................................365
Ricnard lci|z
9. Nev START and NonpioIifeialion: Suilois oi
Sepaiale TalIes`....................................................417
S|cpncn ]. Cinoa|a
1O. Russias NucIeai Iosluie and lhe Thieal
lhal Daie Nol Speak ils Nane............................459
]acco l. Kipp
Aloul lhe Conliilulois ............................................5O5
&%
%
@;289;2?
WhiIe lhe CoId Wai is Iong pasl, lhe inpoilance
of ains conlioI in Russo-Aneiican ieIalions and lhe
ieIaled issue of nucIeai veapons foi Russia ienain
vilaI conceins. Indeed, vilhoul an appiecialion of lhe
nuIlipIe dinensions of lhe Iallei, piogiess in lhe foi3
nei donain is inconceivalIe. Wilh lhis in nind, lhe
Slialegic Sludies Inslilule (SSI) is veiy pIeased lo pies3
enl lhe foIIoving essays, vhich veie piesenled al a
confeience al lhe NalionaI Defense Univeisily on }une
28, 2O1O. These essays expIoie nany, if nol aII, of lhe
issues connecled vilh Russias ieIaliveIy giealei ieIi3
ance on nucIeai veapons foi ils secuiily. As such, lhey
conslilule an inpoilanl conliilulion lo lhe anaIysis of
lhe Olana adninislialions iesel poIicy, Russo-Anei3
ican ieIalions, Russian foieign and defense poIicy, and
inleinalionaI secuiily in lolh Luiope and Asia. Addi3
lionaIIy, queslions conceining lhe appioach laken ly
/."#+ -276#0+ */'#+ -0.&/-( &- +#1#+#-7# ./ ."# 0+8(
conlioI agenda piovide a ciuciaI lackdiop foi lhe
piogiess lovaid cuiling lhe pioIifeialion of nucIeai
veapons, a Iong-slanding cenliaI goaI of U.S. secuiily
poIicy.
We offei lhese essays lo oui ieadeis in lhe leIief
."0. ."# &-1/+80.&/- 0-, 0-065(#( 7/-.0&-#, "#+#&-
viII slienglhen oui undeislanding of Russias ex3
lensive nucIeai agenda and piovide a deepei undei3
slanding of lhe nany issues in inleinalionaI secuiily
connecled vilh Russia and ils nucIeai posluie.

DOUCLAS C. LOVLLACL, }R.
Diiecloi
Slialegic Sludies Inslilule
%&&
-5=2;?36=-;5
As of Novenlei 2O1O, lhe so-caIIed Nev START
(Slialegic Ains Reduclion Tiealy) liealy lelveen lhe
Uniled Slales and Russia lhal vas signed in Iiague,
Czech RepulIic, on ApiiI 8, 2O1O, avails a ialihcalion
vole in lhe Senale. RegaidIess of lhe aigunenls pio
and con lhal have eneiged since il vas signed, il is
cIeai lhal lhe oulcone of lhe ialihcalion vole viII nol
onIy naleiiaIIy affecl lhe Olana adninislialions ie3
sel poIicy lovaids Russia, lul aIso lhe slialegic nu3
cIeai foices of lolh signaloiies. Indeed, lhioughoul
lhe CoId Wai, lolh sides luiIl up lheii foices lased
on vhal each vas lhoughl lo have oi le luiIding. AI3
lhough lhe ush adninislialion (2OO1-O9) iheloiicaIIy
announced ils inlenlion lo sevei lhis nuluaI hoslage
ieIalionship, il faiIed in lhal iegaid. As a iesuIl, ciili3
caI aspecls of lhal ieIalionship sliII suivive in Russias
oiienlalion lo lhe Uniled Slales and in lhe Ianguage of
lhe liealy, especiaIIy in ils pieanlIe, vhich expIicilIy
afhins a Iink lelveen nucIeai offense and defense.
1
!"#+#1/+#9 '"0.#%#+ ."# 10.# /1 ."# .+#0.5 0-, ."#
iesel poIicy, il is cIeai lhal lolh Moscov and Washing3
lon sland lefoie ciossioads in iegaid lo lhe fuluie of
lheii slialegic nucIeai piogians and foice sliucluies.
Moieovei, each sides couise of aclion viII langilIy
011#7. ."# 12.2+# 7/2+(# /1 07.&/- /1 ."# /."#+ (&,# +#3
gaiding lhe panopIy of issues and poIicies connecled
'&." ."# ,#%#6/*8#-. /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 0-, ."#
nissions foi lhen. Wilh lhis in nind, lhe Ofhce of lhe
Secielaiy of Defense (OSD) oiganized a confeience
liinging logelhei seveiaI dislinguished expeils on
Russian nucIeai veapons. The confeience look pIace
al lhe NalionaI Defense Univeisily, Ioil LesIey }. Mc3
Naii, Washinglon, DC, on }une 28, 2O1O, and lhe pa3
%&&&
*#+( ."0. 1/66/' 0+# ."# +#%&(#, %#+(&/-( /1 ."# *0*#+(
piesenled al lhis confeience.
Lach aulhoi vas asked lo ansvei seveiaI diffeienl
queslions peilaining lo lhe piesenl and fuluie pos3
luie of Russias nucIeai veapons (incIuding laclicaI
nucIeai veapons). Moieovei, il quickIy lecane cIeai
lhal Russias nucIeai fuluie in nany vays, Iaige and
snaII, depends giealIy on lhe degiee of success lhal
Moscov viII have in ils cuiienl Iaige-scaIe effoils al
conpiehensive niIilaiy iefoin. These iefoins en3
7/8*0(( %&+.20665 ."# #-.&+# 8&6&.0+5 (.+27.2+# 0-, 0+#
lhe nosl lhoioughgoing iefoins since MikhaiI Iiun3
zes iefoins in 1924-25. ConsequenlIy, no anaIysis of
nucIeai piesenl and fuluie posluie is possilIe vilh3
/2. 0 (5(.#80.&7 0-065(&( /1 ."/(# +#1/+8( 0-, ."#&+
inpacl. Theiefoie, lhe foIIoving chapleis piovide an
exaninalion of Russias niIilaiy and poIilicaI nolives
lehind nucIeai veapons poIicy as lhey peilain nol
onIy lo lhe U.S./Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiganizalion
(NATO), lul aIso lo China, vhose iising povei has
cIeaiIy caughl lhe KienIins allenlion.
DaIe Heispiing and Rogei McDeinoll piesenl
0 (5(.#80.&7 #)*/(&.&/- 0-, 0-065(&( /1 ."# +#1/+8(
of lhe convenlionaI foices and lhe inpacl lhis nighl
have on nucIeai issues. Andiei Shounikhin, IaveI
aev, and NikoIai Sokov cIoseIy exanine lhe vays in
vhich Russia has pieviousIy lhoughl aloul nucIeai
'#0*/-(9 "/' &. ,/#( (/ 0. *+#(#-.9 0-, 0( '#66 0(
hov il nighl lhink aloul lhen in lhe fuluie. DanieI
Couie and Slephen Iank anaIyze sone of lhe Iaigei
slialegic issues diiving Russian secuiily and defense
poIicy and lheii conneclion lo nucIeai veapons. Sle3
phen CinlaIa ieIales lolh lhe U.S. and Russian sliuc3
.2+#( ./ &((2#( .&#, ./ -/-*+/6&1#+0.&/- 0-, ./ '"0.
&)
fuluie ieduclions lo a 1,OOO vaihead IeveI nighl Iook
Iike, vhiIe }acol Kipp anaIyzes lhe deep-sealed slia3
legic chaIIenges lhal Russia faces in ils Asian-Iacihc
Iai Lasl. Richaid Weilz piovides an in-deplh anaIysis
of lhe vexing issue of laclicaI nucIeai veapons (TNW)
lhal aie aIieady a souice of fiiclion lelveen lhe lvo
sides and one lhal viII hguie pioninenlIy in any fu3
luie ains conlioI negolialion.
In nany cases, il viII lecone cIeai lhal in lhe al3
lenpl lo ansvei lhe queslions asked of lhen, lhe
aulhois of lhis look have pioduced a consideialIe
anounl of oveiIap, i.e., noie lhan one aulhoi ad3
diessing lhe sane poinl. Hovevei, vhal is equaIIy as
cIeai is lhal lheie is no agieenenl anong lhen. Theie
vas a deIileiale allenpl lo avoid a pie-cooked
consensus. Ralhei, each aulhois individuaI viev is
asseiled in lheii chapleis, undeiscoiing lhe inheienl
opacily of Russian piogians and lhe diffeienl anaIyli3
caI appioaches of each viilei. This oulcone is haidIy
suipiising in viev of lhe slialegic inpoilance, con3
pIexily, nany-sidedness, and anliguily of Russias
appioach lo nucIeai veapons. WhiIe lhe diffeiences
anong lhe viileis nay pioduce difhcuIlies foi iead3
eis nol necessaiiIy veised in lhe inliicacies of Russian
slialegic lhinking and poIicy, lhey ieecl lhe liue ieaI3
&.5 /1 ."# 80.#+&06 0-, ."# &((2#(9 '"&7" 0+# &-"#+#-.65
difhcuIl and conlenlious in lhe Uniled Slales (as lhe
delale ovei lhe NLW Slail liealy cIeaiIy iIIusliales).
The difhcuIly and conpIexily is inheienl in lhe suljecl
nallei, and ve deIileialeIy soughl lo avoid inposing
piedeleinined oulcones oi concIusions in oiganizing
lhe confeience and lhese papeis. We hope lhal lhese
*0*#+( (#+%# ./ &6628&-0.# (/8# /1 ."# 8/(. &8*/+.0-.9
yel aIso inliaclalIe, defense poIicy issues facing lhe
Uniled Slales (and olhei slales as veII, nol jusl Russia)
)
and lhal lhey conliilule lo an even iichei discussion
and delale heie in lhe Uniled Slales, if nol alioad.
85?5;=8
1. Slephen Iank, CoId Olsliuclion: The Legacy of US-Russia
ReIalions Undei Ceoige W. ush, in Slephen }. CinlaIa, ed., Tnc
Gccrgc l. 8usn Dcfcnsc Prcgran. Pc|icq, S|ra|cgq, c lar, Washing3
lon, DC: Iolonac ooks, 2O1O, pp. 113-138, TRLATY LTWLLN
THL UNITLD STATLS OI AMLRICA AND THL RUSSIAN ILD3
LRATION ON MLASURLS IOR THL IURTHLR RLDUCTION
AND LIMITATION OI STRATLCIC OIILNSIVL ARMS, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.s|a|c.gct/dccuncn|s/crganiza|icn/140035.pdf, IRO3
TOCOL TO THL TRLATY LTWLLN THL UNITLD STATLS
OI AMLRICA AND THL RUSSIAN ILDLRATION ON MLA3
SURLS IOR THL IURTHLR RLDUCTION AND LIMITATION
OI STRATLCIC OIILNSIVL ARMS, avaiIalIe fion uuu.s|a|c.
gct/dccuncn|s/crganiza|icn/140047.pdf.
1
6L4:=82 K
23!!-45 5367842 45? 6;5M85=-;547
984:;5!<
=L8 /2;N85 2874=-;5!L-:
?$E% 2D L%#,A#'.&
Since lhe coIIapse of lhe Soviel Union, lhe Kien3
Iins Ieadeis and geneiaIs have consislenlIy leIieved
."0. '"0.#%#+ "0**#-( ./ ."#&+ 7/-%#-.&/-06 1/+7#(9 &1
'/+(. 7/8#( ./ '/+(.9 ."#5 70- +#65 /- ."#&+ -276#0+
veapons as a deleiienl. Aflei aII, no counliy vas
aloul lo allack lhe Russian Iedeialion vilh ils liiad of
nucIeai veapons. UnfoilunaleIy, foi lhe Russians lhis
vas noie of an iIIusion lhan a ieaIily lecause in spile
of sone ninoi inpiovenenls (e.g. lhe addilion of lhe
TopoI-M, and lhe SS-24), lhe facl is lhal ils nucIeai
foices aie deleiioialing aIong vilh ils convenlionaI
foices. Indeed, al piesenl, Moscov has neilhei a con3
pelenl convenlionaI noi a nucIeai foice. The foinei
0+# &- ."# 8&,(. /1 0 804/+ +#1/+8 *+/4#7.<#-7/2+3
aged ly Moscovs pooi peifoinance in lhe vai vilh
Ceoigia~vhiIe lvo-lhiids of ils nucIeai liiad is foi
lhe nosl pail unusalIe.
/46NO2;35?
When lhe Slialegic Rockel Ioices (SRI)/(RVSN)
veie ciealed in 1959, lhey veie piinaiiIy an exlen3
sion of lhe Soviel Ainys Iong-iange ailiIIeiy. Indeed,
nosl of lhe ofhceis cane fion lhal liadilion, and
il vouId le lhe giound Ieg of lhe nucIeai liiad lhal
vouId le lhe nosl inpoilanl. Of lhe olhei lvo Iegs
of lhe liiad, lhe Navy vas second in inpoilance, foI3
2
Ioved ly lhe aii foice.
1
This neanl lhal lhe Iand-lased
inleiconlinenlaI laIIislic nissiIes (ICMs) veie lhe
nosl poveifuI conponenls of lhe Soviel and Ialei lhe
Russian niIilaiys nucIeai foices. As a consequence,
/%#+ ."# 5#0+( ."#5 +#7#&%#, ."# 804/+&.5 /1 +#(/2+7#(
and allenlion. Indeed, lhe doninalion of lhe giound
lased syslens Ied lhe Soviels lo ignoie oi al Ieasl pay
nininaI allenlion lo cooidinaling lhe lhiee Iegs. Ioi
piaclicaI puiposes, lhey veie lhiee independenl ains.
y lhe leginning of lhe 199Os, a signihcanl pail of
lhe Russian nucIeai liiad had cone lo lhe end of lheii
seivice Iife. Aflei aII, lhe najoiily of lhe nissiIes had
leen depIoyed in lhe 196Os and 197Os. Lven lhe sea-
lased laIIislic nissiIe sulnaiines, lhe Yankee, DeIla
I, and DeIla II had leen pul inlo opeialion in 1968-74.
2

The Soviels veie veII avaie of lhe need lo nodein3
ize lheii nucIeai foices, lul lhe coIIapse of lhe Union
of Soviel SociaIisl RepulIics (USSR) inleiiupled lhe
nucIeai nodeinizalion piocess. Moscov had pIanned
./ ,#*6/5 -#' .5*#( /1 8&((&6#( '&." ("/+.#+ ,#6&%#+5
lines and a shoilei looslei phase, and lo equip lhen
vilh nuIli-eIenenl Iasl slages, oi luses lo saluiale
and lhus disalIe lhe infoinalion piocessing syslens
and desliuclion capaliIilies of lhe fuluie Aneiican
anlilaIIislic nissiIe (AM) defense.
3
UnfoilunaleIy foi
lhe Russians, ly lhe line lhe iegine coIIapsed in 1991,
lhe ICM nodeinizalion piogian vas nol conpIeled.
The sane vas liue of lhe olhei lvo Iegs of lhe liiad.
In 1991, Coilachev eslalIished lhe Slialegic Delei3
ience Ioices (SDI) vhich unihed lhe lhiee Iegs. Hov3
evei, lhe coIIapse of lhe USSR neanl lhal lhe SDI veie
6/70.#, 066 /%#+ ."# 7/2-.+59 0( '#66 0( &- 80-5 /1 ."#
nevIy independenl counliies. Theie vas an allenpl
lo save lhe SDI ly ciealing a conlined niIilaiy foice
undei conlioI of lhe ConnonveaIlh of Independenl
3
Slales (CIS). Ioi a nunlei of ieasons, ly lhe legin3
ning of 1992, il vas cIeai lhal lhe CIS oplion vas dead
on deIiveiy.
4
Indeed, ly lhe niddIe of 1992, lhe key
=2#(.&/- '0( "/' ./ '&.",+0' ."# -276#0+ '#0*/-(
fion CIS counliies~hov lo gel lhen lack lo Russia.
Nev counliies Iike Kazakhslan, Ukiaine, and eIaius
vanled no pail of lhe nucIeai foice. Hovevei, lhe
piocess of vilhdiaving and ie-slalioning lhese nis3
siIes on Russian soiI undeinined vhalevei piogiess
had leen nade in cooidinaling lhe aclions of lhe lhiee
Iegs. To nake nalleis voise, ludgelaiy aIIocalions
veie insufhcienl jusl lo nainlain lhese syslens, Iel
aIone nodeinize lhen.
53N8! 45? 6;5M85=-;547 984:;5! -5
=L8 KPPJ,
The 199Os veie a difhcuIl line foi lhe SDI. Ioi ex3
anpIe, Moscovs nucIeai aisenaI feII lo a IeveI 4-4.5
lines leIov ils once inpiessive hguie. The ieason vas
sinpIe: lhe coIIapse of lhe Russian econony nade il
incieasingIy difhcuIl foi Russia lo puichase and nain3
lain ils nucIeai slockpiIes. In 2OO2, one Russian souice
cIained lhal since 1991, Russia has no iesouices lo
nainlain lhe pievious nucIeai foice of aloul 1O lhou3
sand on slialegic deIiveiy vehicIes and aloul 2O lhou3
sand of sul-slialegic nukes.
5
The silualion confionling Moscovs convenlionaI
foices vas disnaI al lesl. ConsequenlIy, Russias gen3
#+06( "0, ./ '0.7" >8#+&70- 7/-%#-.&/-06 1/+7#( +/66
unopposed lhiough Iiaqi lioops duiing Opeialion
DLSLRT STORM in 1991. They ieaIized lhal Russias
chances foi keeping up vilh lhe Wesl veie dinning
quickIy. This vas olvious in lhe aiea of piocuienenl,
vhich feII ly noie lhan 8O peicenl lelveen 1991 and
4
1994.
6
SiniIaiIy, ly Oclolei 1994, sone 85 nucIeai
sulnaiines veie docked lecause lhe Navy couId
-/. 011/+, ./ .2+- ./ 7/-%#-.&/-06 1/+7#(9 7/-(&,#+ ."#
foIIoving. In 1991 lhe niIilaiy oideied and ieceived
585 conlal aiiciafl. In 1995 il ieceived onIy 2 conlal
aiiciafl.
7
!"&( '0( -/. /-65 ."# 70(# &- ."# 0&+ 1/+7#
lul lhioughoul lhe ained foices. To quole lhe sane
souice, In nosl deveIoped counliies, lelveen 6O
and 8O peicenl of aII veapons aie nev: in Russia lhe
hguie is 3O peicenl. Assuning lhis silualion ienains
unchanged, ly lhe yeai 2OO5, lhe niIilaiy viII have
onIy 5.7 peicenl nev veapons. CiaduaIIy, ve viII
sIide lovaid lhe calegoiy of ainies of lhiid-voiId
counliies.
8

=L8 Q-7-=42R ?;6=2-58 ;@ KPPS
Sonelhing had lo le done. AccoidingIy, Mos3
cov decided lo nodify ils niIilaiy docliine. Thus on
Novenlei 2, 1993, lhe Russian goveinnenl issued a
,/728#-. #-.&.6#,9 Princip|c Guidancc cn |nc Mi|i|arq
Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn (ICMD).
9
!"&( (.0.#3
nenl of niIilaiy docliine vas lased on lhe hisl evei
NalionaI Secuiily Concepl (Tnc 8asic Prctisicns cf a
|crcign Pc|icq Ccnccp|) pieviousIy adopled ly lhe Se3
cuiily CounciI. In il, Moscov essenliaIIy slaled lhal il
had no aIleinalive lul lo ieIy on nucIeai veapons in
an eneigency, and lhal il vas piepaied lo use lhen
hisl if lhe counliys suivivaI vas al slake. This vas
Moscovs foin of deleiience. Indeed, lhe onIy nis3
sion assigned lo lhe nucIeai foices vas lo ienove lhe
lhieal of nucIeai vai ly deleiiing ils inilialion againsl
lhe Russian Iedeialion and ils aIIies.
1O

Il vouId le viong lo lhink lhal Russian niIilaiy
expeils seiiousIy leIieved lhal Russia couId gel aIong
5
vilh nucIeai veapons aIone. CeneiaI Maknul Caieev,
geneiaIIy consideied one of Russias Ieading niIilaiy
lhinkeis piovided lhe foIIoving olseivalion:
ul il is inpossilIe lo ensuie a ieIialIe defense vilh
nucIeai veapons aIone. Iiisl, nany counliies have
even nov lhe aliIily (lo le incieased in lhe fuluie) of
deveIoping a suipiise allack nol onIy vilh nucIeai, lul
06(/ '&." 7/-%#-.&/-06 *+#7&(&/- '#0*/-(9 &- /+,#+ ./
deslioy lhe nucIeai lases of olhei counliies, depiiv3
ing lhen of lhe aliIily lo ielaIiale oi caiiy oul nucIeai
ieliilulion.
11
RegaidIess of hov despeiale lhe KienIin vas foi
nev convenlionaI-lype veapons, lhe 199Os vouId
conlinue lo le a disaslei foi lhe Russian niIilaiy foi
lolh convenlionaI and nucIeai veapons. To quole
Rose CollenoeIIei: The delale ovei lhe ioIe of nu3
cIeai veapons in Russian nalionaI secuiily has leen al
lhe cenlei of niIilaiy iefoin, vilh lhe key queslions
veiy nuch in pIay.
12
R87=!-5 -O5;28! =L8 Q-7-=42R
CollenoeIIei vas iighl. The piolIen, hovevei,
vas lhal oiis YeIlsin did nol lake niIilaiy iefoin,
'"#."#+ /- ."# -276#0+ /+ 7/-%#-.&/-06 6#%#6 (#+&3
ousIy. He did nol considei lhe Wesl lo le a lhieal,
and lhus, unIike his geneiaIs, vas noie conceined
'&." "&( ,/8#(.&7 */'#+ /+ ."# #7/-/85 ."0- "# '0(
vilh upgiading and iefoining lhe niIilaiy. In facl, he
ignoied lhe niIilaiy and ieguIaiIy piovided il vilh
fai Iess lhan even a sulsislence ludgel~lhe niIilaiy
nighl onIy gel 4O-5O peicenl of vhal il vas aulhoiized
lecause lhe lax coIIeclion syslen in Russia vas lio3
ken. Il Ied lo silualions vheie soIdieis veie senl oul lo
pick nushioons lo suppIenenl lheii diel.
13
6
In 1996, lhe ludgel shoilfaII vas 25,OOO liIIion
iulIes (R). The silualion inside lhe niIilaiy vas so
lad lhal lhe aveiage ofhcei vas due aloul R1O,OOO in
lack pay.
14
The nexl yeai, lhe shoilfaII vas R34,OOO
liIIion.
15
ecause of ludgels Iike lhe foiegoing, lheie
vas no noney foi piocuienenl. Whal noney lheie
vas, had lo le spenl on nainlenance and piovisions
foi lhe lioops. As AIexei Ailalov pul il, lhe ludgels
fion 1997 lo 1999 aIIocaled up lo 7O peicenl foi nain3
lenance, vhiIe culling peisonneI ly 3O peicenl. This
Iefl aInosl nolhing foi ieseaich and deveIopnenl.
Iunds aIIocaled lo lhen veie laieIy sufhcienl foi
nodeinizalion of lhe nininaI slialegic foices.
16
?&."
lhis lackgiound, il is nol suipiising lhal lheie veie
seiious diffeiences lelveen advocales of convenlionaI
and slialegic foices. In facl, lhe lallIe vas lillei, nade
voise ly lhe peisonaI disIike lelveen lhe lvo nain
aclois: CeneiaI AnaloIy Kvashnin and Igoi MaishaI
Seigeyev.
=L8 /4==78 /8=9885 NM4!L5-5 45?
!82O8R8M
CeneiaI AnaloIy Kvashnin vas an ainy ofhcei, a
nan vho had voiked his vay up seiving in a vaii3
ely of posls in lhe infanliy (Ciound Ioices) lo lecone
Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff. Il shouId aIso le noled lhal
Kvashnins peisonaIily nalched his infanliy lack3
giound. He vas open and lIunl, and a peison viIIing
lo engage in luieaucialic hslicuffs even if lhal neanl
leing insuloidinale vis-a-vis his loss.
MeanvhiIe, lhe defense ninislei, Igoi Seigeyev,
vas a caieei nissiIe ofhcei. Indeed, he spenl his en3
liie caieei conceined aloul nucIeai veapons. He vas
a poIished ofhcei vho escheved lhe kind of luieau3
7
cialic poIilics lhal Kvashnin ieveIed in. Il vas his jol
lo advise YeIlsin, vhiIe allenpling lo keep lhe defense
eslalIishnenl on an even keeI. Nol suipiisingIy, lhe
oulcone vas conslanl conicl lelveen lhese lvo nen
vilh Seigeyev conslanlIy louling lhe vaIue of nucIeai
veapons, vhiIe Kvashnin aigued in favoi of expand3
ing convenlionaI foices.
As vilh so nany olhei aieas, YeIlsin vas a najoi
pail of lhe piolIen. Iiisl, he changed lhe Iav lo pIace
lolh lhe defense ninislei and lhe Chief of lhe Cen3
eiaI Slaff diieclIy undei hin. As a iesuIl, lhe Chief of
lhe CeneiaI Slaff vas no Iongei suloidinale lo lhe de3
fense ninislei. Thal neanl lhal vhiIe lhe defense nin3
islei couId do his lesl lo convince lhe Chief lo caiiy
oul a specihc poIicy, he couId nol foice hin lo do so.
Iuilheinoie, since lhe CeneiaI Slaff vas piinaiiIy in
chaige of opeialionaI nalleis, lhe Chief couId inpIe3
nenl his oideis as he sav hl. Iion a niIilaiy poIicy
slandpoinl, lhe iesuIl vas luieaucialic chaos. No one
knev foi ceilain vhal YeIlsins poIicy vas, noi vhal
lhe Minisliy of Defense (MoD) poIicy vas on a vaiiely
of issues.
In facl, YeIlsins onIy poIicy vas lo keep lhe niIi3
laiy off laIance, lo cieale a silualion in vhich lhe niIi3
laiy vouId nevei lhiealen his posilion doneslicaIIy.
>1.#+ 0669 "# '0( '#66 0'0+# ."0. &. '0( ."# 8&6&.0+5
lhal cane lo his aid in lhe 1993 coup allenpl. Had lhe
geneiaIs decided lo sil lhal conicl oul, lhe oulcone
nighl have leen veiy diffeienl~vilh YeIlsin silling
in a Russian jaiI. He vas nol aloul lo lake a chance
vilh lhese geneiaIs and adniiaIs. If lhal neanl a
veakei niIilaiy, lhal vas loo lad, lul il vas nol lhal
inpoilanl duiing lhe 199Os.
One of lhe fev posilive lhings YeIlsin did vis-a-
vis lhe niIilaiy vas lo oidei lhe Secuiily CounciI lo
8
cone up vilh a nev NalionaI Secuiily Concepl. Il vas
conpIeled on May 7, 1997, and enacled ly piesiden3
liaI deciee on Decenlei 17, 1997.
17
WhiIe lhe Concepl
Iaid lhe lasis foi a ievision of niIilaiy docliine, il vas
fai loo lioad and anliguous vhen il cane lo selling
piioiilies, nalionaI inleiesls, and iesponsiliIilies.
MeanvhiIe, in an effoil lo nake sliucluiaI chang3
es, Seigeyev soughl and achieved peinission lo iec3
ieale lhe SDI. The puipose vas lo eslalIish a foice
lhal conlined lhe slialegic nucIeai capaliIilies of lhe
Slialegic Rockel Ioices, lhe Navy, and lhe Aii Ioice,
as veII as olhei unils having iesponsiliIily foi eaiIy
vaining connand and conlioI unils. AddilionaIIy,
lhe counliys ieconnaissance saleIIiles vouId le sul3
oidinaled lo lhe SDI.
IinaIIy on Maich 15, 1999, YeIslin appioved a
docunenl caIIed Main Iiovisions of Russias Nu3
cIeai Deleiience IoIicy. The docunenl nade il cIeai
lhal Russias nucIeai foices veie lhe guaianloi of lhe
counliys nalionaI secuiily.
18
The piolIen vilh lhe
Concepl vas lhal il did nol liing aloul lhe slaliIily
and piediclaliIily (s|aoi|ncs| i prcdtidcnic) lhal is so
nuch a pail of niIilaiy lhinking lhe voiId ovei. Cen3
#+06( 0-, 0,8&+06( 70--/. *60- 1/+ ."# 12.2+# &1 ."#5
do nol knov vhal kind of a conicl lhey aie piepaiing
foi, oi if lhey do nol knov vhal kind of veapons sys3
lens and peisonneI lhey viII have al lheii disposaI. If
lheie veie lvo voids lhal vouId desciile lhe 199Os
fion lhe geneiaIs and adniiaIs poinl of viev, lhey
veie confusion and chaos. Il vas cIeaiIy line foi a
nev niIilaiy docliine.
9
:3=-5 45? =L8 Q-7-=42R ?;6=2-58 ;@ IJJJ
When VIadinii Iulin look ovei as piesidenl of
Russia, he faced a niIilaiy lhal vas in need of jusl
aloul eveiylhing. Ships did nol saiI, pIanes did nol
y, and lanks veie nol in voiking oidei. Indeed, lhe
counliy did nol caiiy oul a singIe division IeveI exei3
cise duiing lhe 199Os, and lheie veie nany ofhceis al
."# 6&#2.#-0-. 7/6/-#6 0-, 7/6/-#6 6#%#6 ."0. "0, -/.
connanded an aclive unil Iaigei lhan a conpany.
This Iack of niIilaiy expeiience vouId cone lack lo
haunl lhe Russian niIilaiy, foi exanpIe, in lhe vai
againsl Ceoigia. MeanvhiIe, Iulin look as one of his
piinaiy lasks lhe slaliIizing of lhe Russian niIilaiy.
Aflei aII, Russia vas hghling a vai in Chechnya, and
ils niIilaiy piolIens couId nol le ignoied.
!"# 2000 Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc vas appioved ly Rus3
sian IiesidenliaI Ldicl 7O6 on ApiiI 21, 2OOO.
19
>( &.
vouId on olhei occasions, lhe Russians iefused lo
cIaiify lhe issue of a nucIeai lhieshoId. The docunenl
nade cIeai lhal Moscov keep lhe iighl lo use nucIeai
'#0*/-( &- +#(*/-(# ./ ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-(
oi olhei WMD |veapons of nass desliuclionj againsl
Russia oi ils aIIies, as veII as in iesponse lo Iaige-scaIe
convenlionaI aggiession in ciilicaI silualions foi Rus3
sian nalionaI secuiily.
2O
@&%#- ."# ,#(*#+0.# 7/-,&3
lion of ils convenlionaI veapons, il is nol suipiising
lhal lhe Russians vanled lo pieseive fieedon of na3
neuvei. Thal incIuded lhe use of nucIeai veapons,
even if a convenlionaI vai deleiioialed ladIy. In facl,
lhe Russian niIilaiy incIuded such an oplion in ils ex3
eicises~Wesl 99 and Aulunn 2OO2.
21
!"# ,/728#-.
did nol iesoIve lhe queslion of vhich side lhe KienIin
shouId oi vouId favoi~nucIeai oi convenlionaI. In3
deed, if lheie vas anylhing nev in il, il vas lhe iecog3
1O
nilion of lhe lhieal piesenled ly inleinalionaI leiioi3
isn.
WhiIe Washinglon nay nol have ieaIized il al lhe
line, ils decision lo vilhdiav fion lhe 1972 AM
Tiealy neanl lhal lhe KienIin did nol have lo gel
iid of ils nuIlipIe vaihead nissiIes as denanded ly
lhe liealy. Iion a poIicy slandpoinl, lhe uigency of
nodeinizing exisling nissiIes disappeaied. The cui3
ienl ones vouId sufhce. The KienIin had found a vay
lo nainlain ils nucIeai veapons on lhe cheap. Such
a poIicy nay voik ovei lhe shoil iun, lul lo ienain
effeclive lhe nissiIes had lo le nodeinized and nev
ones had lo le deveIoped lo counlei lhe olhei sides
counleineasuies.
MeanvhiIe, lhe veiy expensive navaI ain of lhe
Russian liiad suffeied one piolIen aflei anolhei. Iiisl
vas lhe sinking of lhe sulnaiine Kurs|</-# /1 ."#
nodein sulnaiines in lhe Russian eel~in Augusl
2OOO, vhich piesunalIy vas lhe iesuIl of an onloaid
8&((&6# #)*6/(&/- !"#- ."#+# '0( ."# 70(# /1 ."# Yuri
Dcgcru|iq, a slialegic sulnaiine lhal vas undei con3
sliuclion lhioughoul lhe 199Os. The inlenlion vas foi
il lo enlei seivice in 2OO1. Hovevei, vhen lhe nissiIe
lhal vas designed foi il (lhe SS N-28) faiIed, il vas
iedesigned foi lhe uIava nissiIe. Il vas nol unliI Iel3
iuaiy 13, 2OO8, lhal il vas hnaIIy Iaunched. As a con3
sequence, lheie vas no vay lhe Navy couId aigue foi
a doninanl posilion in lhe Russian slialegic aisenaI.
This liings us lack lo lhe ongoing lallIe lelveen
Kvashnin and Seigeyev, vhich had najoi oveilones
foi lhe ieIalionship lelveen nucIeai and convenlionaI
veapons. The lallIe lelveen lhe lvo nen ieached
lhe poinl vheie, lo quole AIexei Ailalov: In ieaIily,
undei lhe unlieIIas of lhe ofhciaI Russian docliine,
."#+# 0+# -/' .'/ 8&6&.0+5 ,/7.+&-#(9 '&." 066 ."# 7/-3
11
sequences oving lheiefion.
22
The lallIe vas ovei
lhe heail of lhe Russian niIilaiy~vhich side vouId
le favoied: nucIeai veapons as favoied ly Seigeyev
oi convenlionaI foices as favoied ly Kvashnin` The
foinei nainlained lhal, given Russias veak con3
venlionaI foices, Moscovs onIy aIleinalive vas lo
deveIop ils nucIeai capaliIilies lo lhe poinl vheie
no olhei slale oi oiganizalion vouId considei allack3
ing Russia. Kvashnin, on lhe olhei hand, nainlained
lhal Russia vas aIieady faced vilh lhieals lhal couId
onIy le handIed ly convenlionaI foices. Aflei aII, one
couId nol seiiousIy considei using nucIeai veapons in
Chechnya oi osnia. The niIilaiy had lo have nodein
convenlionaI veapons lo neel lhese chaIIenges.
Ioi his pail, Seigeyev nade lhe faniIiai aigu3
8#-. ."0. 066 /1 ."# 7/-%#-.&/-06 1/+7#( &- ."# '/+6,
vouId nol piolecl Russia in lhe face of an opponenl
vho had nucIeai veapons and lhe viII lo use lhen.
To quole Ailalov: Russias nucIeai aisenaI shouId
le sufhcienl lo inicl pie-sel danage lo any aggies3
soi undei any ciicunslances.
23
Hovevei, accoiding
lo Iedeiov, an anaIysis of Moscovs nucIeai capaliIi3
lies al lhal line Ied lo lhe najoi concIusion lhal Rus3
sias nucIeai veapons cannol peifoin lhe nission of
deleiience againsl lhe hypolhelicaI aggiession al lhe
iegionaI IeveI.
24
The olvious piolIen, as poinled oul
ly AIexandi CoIls, is lhal nucIeai veapons aie Iess
capalIe againsl leiioiisn lhan any olhei.
25
The sinpIe facl is lhal Moscov Iacks a coheienl
niIilaiy slialegy. In pailicuIai, lhe Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc
cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn '0( 0**+/%#, /-65 &- >*+&6
2OOO, vhiIe lhe Nata| Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn
vas appioved in }uIy 2OO1. Iiogians and pIans of
niIilaiy consliuclion veie oul of piopoilion lo Rus3
sias econonic capaliIilies.
26
To nake nalleis voise,
12
Russias geneiaIs couId nol gel iid of lhe idea of a
Iaige scaIe conicl iequiiing nass ainies. They veie
sliII nenlaIIy lied lo hghling lhe Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy
Oiganizalion (NATO). To quole LocksIey:
Theie aie consislenl aIIegalions lhal lhe docliine and
liaining seclions of lhe CeneiaI Slaff aie goveined
ly Ceinans, veleians of lhe Cioup of Soviel Ioices
in Ceinany, vho aie noslaIgic aloul pIanning and
conducling lig nuIli-lhealie vaifaie ialhei lhan sel3
ling lhe docliinaI condilions and inlioducing suilalIe
liaining ieguIalions. Russian niIilaiy foices have nol
fuIIy iefoined and adapled lo lhe changed lhieal en3
viionnenl.
27
RegaidIess of vhal appioach Moscov adopled,
Iulin had lo hnd a vay lo slop lhe conslanl lickeiing
lelveen Seigeyev and Kvashnin.
On }uIy 12, 2OOO, lheie vas a neeling in lhe Kien3
Iin, in vhich Kvashnin aigued in favoi of disland3
ing lhe SRI. He had in nind culling lhe nunlei of
inleiconlinenlaI nissiIe divisions fion 19 lo 2. ICMs
vouId go fion 756 lo onIy 15O ly 2OO3. This vouId
aIso deciease lhe SRIs shaie of lhe ludgel fion 18
peicenl lo 15 peicenl. Seigeyev iesponded in a nevs3
papei ailicIe in vhich he caIIed Kvashnins pIan,
ciininaI slupidily and an allack on Russias nalionaI
inleiesls. The nexl day Iulin oideied lolh geneiaIs
lo siIence lheii delale and cone up vilh ieaIislic
poIicy pioposaIs.
28
Kvashnin iepealed his ciilicisn al an Augusl 11
Secuiily CounciI neeling allended ly Iulin. The Ial3
lei vas fiuslialed, lul ieaIized lhal he vouId have lo
do sonelhing. He slaled, I have leen ialhei loIeianl
of lhe delales in lhe defense ninisliy and sociely as
a vhoIe. . . . Nov is lhe line lo liing lhe nallei lo
13
ils iighlfuI concIusion.
29
In lhe neanline, nalleis
appeaied lo le going Kvashnins vay. Ioi exanpIe,
lhe 1997 decision ly Seigeyev lo gel iid of lhe Ciound
Ioices as a sepaiale seivice vas ieveised.
Theie vas a pailicuIaiIy inpoilanl neeling of lhe
Secuiily CounciI on Novenlei 9, 2OOO. Duiing lhe
neeling, Iulin acknovIedged lhe inpoilance of nu3
cIeai veapons, lul he aIso nenlioned lhe need lo see
olhei chaIIenges. Il vas cIeai fion his connenls lhal
his piinaiy concein vas inpioving lhe Ainys con3
venlionaI capaliIilies. The pIan adopled al lhe neel3
ing foiesav a lvo-slaged piocess. Ihase one coveied
2OO1 lo 2OO5 and vouId focus piinaiiIy on peisonneI.
The second focused on giving lhe niIilaiy lhe Iogisli3
caI suppoil il needed.
On Maich 24, 2OO1, il vas announced lhal Iulin
had signed Deciee No. 337, On Suppoiling lhe IIan
foi Conveision and DeveIopnenl of lhe RI Ained
Ioices and Inpioving Theii Sliucluie. The deciee
lioke lhe SRI in lvo connands: The Slialegic MissiIe
Tioops and lhe Space Tioops. Ioui days Ialei Iulin
hied Seigeyev, naking hin a piesidenliaI advisoi.
He vas iepIaced ly Seigei Ivanov, a foinei KC gen3
eiaI and cIose conhdanl of Iulin. Ivanovs lask vas lo
snoolh nalleis ovei vilh Kvashnin, vhiIe heIping lo
cieale slaliIily inside lhe niIilaiy.
In spile of Ivanovs lesl effoils, il soon lecane
olvious lhal he couId nol voik vilh Kvashnin. The
Iallei ignoied hin jusl as he had Seigeyev. As noled
alove, lhe piolIen vas lhal lhe Lav on Defense
slaled lhal Kvashnin voiked foi lhe piesidenl, and
did nol have lo cIeai his aclions oi ideas vilh Ivanov.
Then on }une 14, al Iulins uiging, lhe Duna changed
AilicIe 13 of lhe Lav on Defense lo nenlion onIy lhe
Defense Minisliy: Oveisighl foi lhe Ained Ioices of
14
lhe Russian Iedeialion is caiiied oul ly lhe defense
ninislei via lhe Defense Minisliy.
3O
A2+."#+8/+#9
AilicIe 15, vhich had Iisled lhe nain funclions of lhe
CeneiaI Slaff, vas decIaied nuII and void. This neanl
lhal hencefoilh lhe Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff voiked
foi lhe Defense Minislei. SeveiaI veeks Ialei Kvash3
nin vas hied as veII.
23!!-4T! 5367842 @;268!
Accoiding lo Inslilule foi InleinalionaI Secuiily
Sludies (IISS) hguies, in 2OOO, lhe SRI had a lolaI of
771 ICM Iauncheis. Hovevei, lheie veie piolIens
vilh lhe Navys nev foIIov-on sulnaiine-Iaunched
laIIislic nissiIes (SLMs), and il vas canceIIed in Au3
gusl 1998 aflei lhiee lesl faiIuies.
31
Duiing lhe sane
yeai, VIadinii YakovIev, head of lhe SRI, slaled lhal
Moscov vouId have 2O-3O TopoI-Ms each yeai foi 3
yeais and 3O-4O in each of lhe sulsequenl 3 yeais.
32

In facl, Russia depIoyed onIy 1O duiing 1998 and 1999,
and six duiing 2OOO.
y 2OO4, nalleis had fuilhei deleiioialed. As one
olseivei noled:
The silualion in lhe nanufacluiing secloi is so seiious,
lhal in 2OO4 seiiaI pioduclion of lhe TopoI-M had lo le
slopped lvice. This vas lhe Iasl sliav. . . . If lhe gov3
einnenl does nol nake lhe necessaiy sleps in lhe nexl
2-3 nonlhs, lhe slialegic nucIeai foices deveIopnenl
piogian viII le disiupled.
33

In facl, Ivanov liied lo pul a good face on nalleis,
noling in 2OO5 lhal lhe KienIin inlended lo acquiie
six ICMs and one Tu-16O slialegic lonlei.
34
A+/8
a slialegic slandpoinl, lhis vas a joke as one viilei
noled:
15
The voids aloul lhe piioiily of nucIeai deleiience aie
as usuaI hanging in lhe aii, lecause lhe pIan lo luy six
inleiconlinenlaI laIIislic nissiIes and one slialegic Tu-
16O nissiIe caiiiei in 2OO6 neans nolhing lo anyone.
VIadinii Dvoikin, vho eaiIiei headed lhe 4lh Defense
Minisliys ieseaich foi slialegic ains slaled. Wilh
such lenpos lheie is alsoIuleIy no ceilainly aloul
vhal viII ienain of Russias slialegic nucIeai foices
in 2O12-2O15, aflei lhe conpIeleIy ouldaled veapons
aie vilhdiavn, and vhelhei ve viII le alIe lo nain3
lain lhe nucIeai laIance vilh lhe Uniled Slales al 2,2OO
vaiheads deleinined ly lhe Russian-U.S. Slialegic
Offensive Reduclion Tiealy.
35
On May 29, 2OO7, Moscov lesled a nev giound
lased nissiIe. The SS-24 nuIlipIe vaihead laIIislic
nissiIe is siniIai lo lhe TopoI-M excepl lhal ils pii3
80+5 *2+*/(# &( ./ /%#+7/8# 0&+ ,#1#-(# (5(.#8( (27"
as lhe one lhe Uniled Slales pieviousIy inlended lo
depIoy in Luiope. To quole lhe nov foinei defense
ninislei Ivanov: These conpIexes aie capalIe of
penelialing aII exisling and peispeclive anli-nissiIe
syslens.
36
Il vas lesled in ils MIRVed (nuIlipIe inde3
pendenlIy laigelalIe ieenliy vehicIe) foin in Noven3
lei of 2OO8.
=L8 !-=34=-;5 9-=L =L8 /374M4
}usl as lhe SRI needed a nev, noie nodein nis3
siIe, so did lhe Navy. Nev sulnaiines veie leing
consliucled, and a nev nissiIe had lo le deveIoped.
Lach of lhe nev Iiojecl 955 sulnaiines vouId caiiy
12 of lhese nev nissiIes. In addilion, lhese nev nis3
siIes vouId le lack-hlled inlo lhe Iiojecl 941 sulna3
iines. The uIava, hovevei, vas lo lecone a najoi
headache foi lhe KienIin. In lhe leginning, Moscov
vas convinced lhal lhis nev nissiIe vouId le a savioi
foi lhe Russian sulnaiine eel.
16
Defense Minislei Seigei Ivanov announced lhal in
2OO7 lhe ained foices viII acquiie a nev slialegic laI3
Iislic nissiIe, lhe S-3O uIava . . . . Ivanov said lhal lhe
nev supeisonic MIRV nissiIe has no equivaIenl in lhe
voiId. On 27 Seplenlei, a Noilhein IIeel sulnaiine
in lhe While Sea Iaunched a uIava, vhich aflei a 3O
ninule ighl successfuIIy hil a laigel in lhe lesling
giound in Kanchalka. . . . Thal sane day, Iiesidenl
VIadinii Iulin said duiing his nalionvide leIeconfei3
ence lhal lhe uIava can change ils ioule and aIlilude
in such a vay lhal il nakes lhe nissiIe invuIneialIe lo
lhe slialegic-nissiIe-defense syslens of sone of oui
pailnei counliies.
37
ReaIily, hovevei, vouId le quile diffeienl fion
Ivanovs and Iulins piediclions. Ioi exanpIe, a fev
days Ialei, lhe MoD iepoiled lhal seveiaI ninules af3
.#+ ."# 602-7"9 ."# 02./80.&7 (5(.#8 /1 (#613,#(.+27.&/-
vas liiggeied as a iesuIl of a devialion of lhe nission
fion ils liajecloiy.
38

Sone lackgiound is needed lefoie discussing lhe
uIavas piolIens. In 1998 vhen lhe decision vas
nade lo luiId lhis nissiIe, cosl vas a key concein.
Yuii SoIononov, lhe chief designei al lhe Moscov
Inslilule of TheinaI TechnoIogy (MITT), pionised
lo cieale a nev syslen, lhe uIava-3O, vhich is lolh
a Iand and sea nissiIe. As a consequence, lhe piojecl
vas liansfeiied fion lhe Makeyev Design uieau,
vhich had leen luiIding lhe TopoI-M, lo MITT. The
anounl of noney sunk inlo lhis piojecl ly 2OO9 vas
$7 liIIion.
39
eIieve il oi nol, accoiding lo sone esli3
nales, 4O peicenl of lhe MoDs ludgel vas leing de3
voled lo lhe uIava piojecl.
4O
SliII, as Iale as 2OO8, lhe
MoD vas iepoiledIy connenling piivaleIy lhal lhe
slialegic nucIeai foices aie in pailicuIaiIy calasliophic
silualion.
41
17
If lhe conslanl faiIuies ly lhe uIava veie nol
enough, lhe Navy vas leconing incieasingIy enlai3
iassed. Why` ecause lhe KienIin vas luiIding sul3
naiines lo le equipped vilh lhe uIava nissiIe. The
MoD expecled lo have lhen in seivice in 2OO8. The
sulnaiine Dni|ri Dcns|cq had leen iehlled in line lo
acconnodale lhe uIava nissiIes. In addilion, a nev
sulnaiine, lhe Yuri Dc|gcru|iq, vas Iaunched in 2OO9
and ieady lo go lo sea ly 2O1O. Moscov had aIso le3
gun voik on lvo addilionaI sulnaiines, lhe A|c|sandr
Ncts|q 0-, ."# V|adinir Mcncna|n. !"&( 8#0-. ."0.
lhe KienIin vas faced vilh lhe veiy enlaiiassing
silualion of having one sulnaiine lhal vas supposed
lo le equipped vilh uIava nissiIes going lo sea vilh
ils nissiIe lules enply~vilh lvo noie on lhe vay!
Ioi his pail, AdniiaI VIadinii Vysolskiy nain3
lained lhal one of lhe najoi piolIens confionling lhe
niIilaiy in Russia vas lhe deciepil slale of ils niIi3
laiy-indusliiaI conpIex. Theie is a Iol of liulh in his
connenls~lhe lechnoIogy in nany of lhe indusliiaI
pIanls is fion lhe 197Os oi 198Os. Iuilheinoie, lhe av3
eiage age of nosl of lhose vho aie conpelenl lo voik
in nosl of lhose facloiies is ovei 6O. The najoiily of
lhe youngei quaIihed voikeis Iefl lhe niIilaiy faclo3
iies lo voik in lellei paying jols eIsevheie.
Iaced vilh lhis disnaI silualion, Yuii SoIononov,
lhe Chief Designei vho in 1998 cIained lhal he couId
design lhe nev nissiIe, vas hied. Aflei aII, lhe nis3
siIe had faiIed 7 lines oul of 11 Iaunches since 2OO4.
Despile lhe pooi peifoinance , Moscov appeais lo le
sluck vilh lhe uIava nissiIe. Theie vas laIk of in3
seiling lhe Sineva nissiIe, lul il is a conpIeleIy dif3
feienl syslen. Iuilheinoie, laking lhe uIava lules
and ieIaled equipnenl oul of sulnaiines Iike lhe Yuri
Dc|gcru|iq and iepIacing lhen vilh lules lhal vouId
hie lhe Sineva nissiIes vouId le cosl piohililive.
18
In 2OO8, Moscov liied lo lesl lhe uIava nissiIe
once again vilh one successfuI allenpl in Seplenlei
and yel anolhei faiIuie in Decenlei. In lhe Iallei case,
nol one of lhe ieenliy vehicIes hil lheii laigels al lhe
Kanchalka iange. Il naiked lhe hflh faiIuie oul of
1O Iaunches. As one Russian souice pul il, lhe 1Olh
giaded Iaunch fion on loaid lhe sulnaiine nissiIe-
70++&#+ Dni|rq Dcns|cq ended in fuII-scaIe disaslei.
42
The lollon Iine slaled ly AdniiaI Vysolskiy vas
lhal The Navy has nolhing lo iepIace il vilh. Ac3
coiding lo Vysolskiy, in spile of lhe unsuccessfuI lesls,
lhe Navy had no choice lul lo piess ahead vilh lhe
piogian. The nissiIe is sIaled lo le lhe nainslay of
lhe sea Ieg of Russias nucIeai deleiienl lhiough 2O4O-
45.
43

Accoiding lo Russian souices, lhe nexl lesl of a
uIava vas scheduIed foi lhe end of }une 2O1O on
loaid lhe Dni|ri Dcns|cq. ul lhis vas nodihed in
May vhen il vas announced lhal lhe nissiIe vouId le
lesled no eaiIiei lhan Novenlei lhis yeai |2O1Oj.
44

The ieason, accoiding lo lhe Navy, is lhal lhey have
sliII nol leen alIe lo deleinine lhe ieason foi lhe
pievious Iaunch faiIuies.
45
The Navy suspecls lhal
lhe piolIen is in lhe assenlIy of lhe nissiIe, lhe onIy
vay lhey can expIain vhy sone nissiIes have voiked
successfuIIy, vhiIe olheis have nol. In lhe fuluie, lhe
Navy slaled lhal il viII Iaunch lhiee uIava nissiIes al
lhe sane line in an effoil lo pinpoinl lhe piolIen. In
lhe neanline, lhe nev sulnaiines viII undeigo sea
liiaIs, lul nol ieaIIy pul lo sea doing lhe jol lhey veie
inlended lo peifoin unliI lhe uIava is peifecled,
vhenevei lhal happens.
19
7;5OU245O8 4M-4=-;5
Using lhe one oi lvo Tu-16Os avaiIalIe lo hin,
CeneiaI Igoi Khovoiov, lhe connandei of Long-
Range Avialion (LRA), slaled lhal duiing 2OO6, he
pIanned lo caiiy oul 1O Iaunches of ciuise nissiIes, nol
#)07.65 '"0. /-# '/26, #)*#7. 1+/8 ."# 0&+ 1/+7# /1
a supeipovei.
46
!"# -#). 5#0+9 ."# 7/880-,#+ /1 ."#
Aii Ioice announced lhal an upgiaded Tu-16O vouId
#-.#+ (#+%&7# '&." ."# >&+ A/+7#9 0-, ."0. 0-/."#+ /-#
vas in lhe pipeIine.
47
Inagine if lhe effeclive aii ain of
lhe Russian nucIeai liiad consisled of onIy foui oi hve
oId, if nodeinized, slialegic aiiciafl!
The silualion did nol inpiove ovei line. Ioi exan3
pIe, eveiy line a senioi Aii Ioice ofhcei spoke of nev
pIanes, his connenls veie cIeaiIy focused on hghlei
aiiciafl, vhich appeais lo le lhe najoi concein of lhe
Aii Ioice al piesenl~lhe Iiflh Ceneialion Iighlei.
Considei lhe foIIov connenls fion a ciilic of LRA:
Slialegic nissiIe-ained aiiciafl aie designed lo de3
slioy eneny laigels vilh .knovn cooidinales. Re3
cenlIy vilhin lhe scope of lhe LRA connand and slaff
diiII conducled undei lhe diieclion of DA (LRA) Con3
nandei Majoi-CeneiaI AnaloIiy Zhikhaiev, cievs
look up Tu-95MSs vilh piaclice ciuise nissiIes aloaid
fion LngIes Aiilase. They unsuccessfuIIy execuled
Iaunches lo naxinun iange (aiound 2,5OO) againsl
laigels on lhe noilhein Ienloy Range (Voikula). Il
vas vhispeied lo ne lhal lhe nissiIes devialion
fion lhe cenlei of lhe laigel did nol exceed 2On. This
is sonelhing of vhich lo le pioud!
48
The lollon Iine is lhal LRA has a veiy Iong vay
lo go lefoie il can le consideied a ciilicaI pail of lhe
slialegic nucIeai liiad.
2O
=L8 !8426L @;2 4 589 Q-7-=42R
?;6=2-58 IJKJ
Lven lhough il had onIy leen in effecl foi 3 yeais,
ly 2OO3 lheie veie caIIs foi an updaling of Russian
niIilaiy docliine. As CeneiaI AnaloIiy KuIikov pul il:

eaiing in nind lhe iecenl vai in Iiaq, lhe cuiienl
niIilaiy docliine of Russia does nol neel nodein ie3
quiienenls foi nalionaI secuiily. Il shouId le lhe lasis
foi diafling a nalionaI secuiily docliine of Russia lo
cIeaiIy dehne nodein lhieals and chaIIenges lo Rus3
sian ained foices.
49

Iion an oiganizalionaI slandpoinl, Iulin and Ivanov
had succeeded in slaliIizing lhe niIilaiy. Hovevei,
lheie veie conlinued piolIens~funding foi lhe niIi3
laiy vas incieased, lul lheie vas sliII nol enough lo
puichase lhe veapons needed eilhei lo nodeinize lhe
counliys convenlionaI foices, oi lo luiId lhe nucIeai
foices lhe counliy needed. As a iesuIl, in 2OO5 Iulin
foinaIIy chaiged Russias niIilaiy Ieadeis lo cone up
vilh a nev niIilaiy docliine.
One of lhe key faclois of any nucIeai docliine is
pieenplion. Iulin had nade his posilion on lhis issue
veiy cIeai in 2OO3, vhen he ienaiked, If lhe piaclice
of pievenlive sliikes shouId dc fac|c lecone vide3
spiead and giov sliongei, Russia ieseives lhe iighl
lo such piaclice. He conlinued, ienaiking, lhal We
aie againsl lhis, lul ve ielain lhe iighl lo caiiy oul
pievenlive sliikes.
5O

So vhal veie lhe najoi~piolIens leyond lhe
ieoccuiiing issue of pieenplion` Iiisl, as Ailalov
-/.#,9 '0( ."# 10&62+# /1 ."# ,/7.+&-# ./ .#66 ."# >+8#,
Ioices vhal kind of eneny lhey aie supposed lo
21
piepaie lhenseIves againsl.
51
> (#7/-, 107./+ '0(
lhe alsence of a discussion of lhe lhieal of leiioiisn.
MeanvhiIe, undei Ivanovs diieclion (as Iiesidenl of
lhe Secuiily CounciI), lhe Iallei vas piepaiing a nev
concepl of nalionaI secuiily, vhich accoiding lo lhe
Russian conslilulion is supposed lo pioceed and guide
lhe diafling of niIilaiy docliine. In facl, lhe diafling
of lolh docunenls vouId luin oul lo le noie Ienglhy
lhan anlicipaled.
Theie vas IillIe change in lhe concepl of nucIeai
deleiience. Theoielicians Iike CeneiaI Caieyev nain3
lained lhal il vas ciilicaI lo conlinue lo luiId up Rus3
sias nucIeai deleiienl. InleieslingIy, he aIso noled lhal
il vouId le inpoilanl foi lhe docliine lo pay allenlion
lo lhe deveIopnenl of geneiaI-puipose foices, lhe
Aii Ioice, lhe Navy, and giound lioops.
52
In May 2OO9, Medvedev signed lhe Na|icna| Sccuri-
|q S|ra|cgq Dccuncn|, vhich Iaid lhe lasis foi lhe nev
Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc docunenl lhal he signed on Ieliuaiy
5, 2O1O. Insofai as nucIeai veapons veie conceined,
lhe docliine of pieenplion vas nol nenlioned, lul
lhe idea vas ielained. As lhe docunenl slales:
The Russian Iedeialion ieseives lhe iighl lo uliIize
nucIeai veapons in iesponse lo lhe uliIizalion of nu3
76#0+ 0-, /."#+ .5*#( /1 '#0*/-( /1 80(( ,#(.+27.&/-
againsl il and (oi) ils aIIies, and aIso in lhe evenl of ag3
giession againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion invoIving lhe
2(# /1 7/-%#-.&/-06 '#0*/-( '"#- ."# %#+5 #)&(.#-7#
of lhe slale is undei lhieal.
53

This Ied one connenlaloi lo caII Russias nev niIi3
laiy docliine An Lxeicise in IulIic ReIalions~a
iefeience lo lhe avoidance of lhe lein pieenplion.
54

B."#+'&(#9 '"#- &. 7/8#( ./ -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 ."#
docunenl is nol signihcanlIy diffeienl fion pievious
edilions.
22
=L8 !L2-5N-5O 5367842 @;268!
Thioughoul lhe 199Os and inlo lhe nexl cenluiy,
nol onIy did Moscov expeiience piolIens vilh pai3
licuIai veapons syslens, lhe nunlei of nucIeai veap3
ons vas decieasing. Nole lhe foIIoving ciilicisn:
Al lhe slail of 1992, lhe Russian Iedeialion had 6,347
nucIeai vaiheads. When oiis YeIlsin iesigned al lhe
end of 1999, he Iefl his successoi 5,842 vaiheads. Al lhe
slail of 2OO7, Russia had 681 ICMs (incIuding SLMs
caiiied ly sulnaiines) vilh 2,46O vaiheads and 79
slialegic aiiciafl vilh 884 ciuise nissiIes. Thals a lolaI
of 3,344 vaiheads. If cuiienl liends peisisl (nev nis3
siIes aie leing luiIl al an exlieneIy sIov iale, vhiIe
lhe vilhdiavaI of oId nissiIes is acceIeialing), lhe
Slialegic NucIeai Ioices nighl have no noie lhan 3OO
ICMs ly lhe niddIe of lhe nexl decade vilh no noie
lhan 6OO vaiheads.
55
In shoil, insofai as Moscovs nucIeai foices veie
conceined, lhe fuluie Iooked anylhing lul liighl.
=L8 !=4=3! ;@ 6;5M85=-;547 984:;5!>
IJKJ
If lheie veie piolIens vilh nucIeai foices, lhe
piolIens vilh convenlionaI veapons veie even
giealei. This vas lioughl hone lo lhe KienIin in
gieal cIaiily ly lhe Wai vilh Ceoigia. The vai legan
in chaos~especiaIIy anong lhe high connand in
Moscov. As one Russian souice pul il:
The Main Opeialions Diiecloiale and lhe Main Oiga3
nizalion Diiecloiale found lhenseIves on Augusl 8,
2OO8, in lhe slieel in lhe diiecl sense of lhe void. On
23
lhal day lhe diiecloiales veie engaged in caiiying oul
a veiy sliicl diieclive of Defense Minislei AnalioIiy
Seidyukov. Ten KAMAZs |a lype of Russian liuckj
'#+# 6&-#, 2* 0. #-.+0-7#(9 0-, *+/*#+.5 /1 ."# @#-3
eiaI Slaffs lvo nain diiecloiales, packed in loxes and
lundIes, vas leing Ioaded inlo lhen.
56

The iesuIl vas lhal nany ofhceis Ieained lhe nevs
lhal Ceoigia had legun niIilaiy opeialions againsl
Soulh Osselia fion noining nevs pulIicalions.
57

When lhe geneiaIs sal dovn lo evaIuale Russian
peifoinance duiing lhe vai, lhey veie shocked and
quile vocaI in discussing piolIens. This discussion
lecane lhe inpelus foi lhe giealesl change in Russian
convenlionaI foices since WoiId Wai II. In an inlei3
viev in May 2OO9, a foinei Russian Aiiloine Tioop
(VDV) inleIIigence chief, CoIoneI IaveI Iopovskikh,
undeiscoied lhe daled condilion of conlal liaining
vilhin lhe eIile aiiloine foices, as veII as ieecling on
lhe silualion vilhin convenlionaI foices.
Oui ainy is sliII leing liained lased upon ieguIa3
lions, vhich veie viillen in lhe 196Os! The ieguIa3
lions, nanuaIs, conlal liaining piogiannes, and
lhe voIunes of slandaids have lecone olsoIele. An
/6, 1+&#-, +#7#-.65 (#-. 8# ."# %/628# /1 (.0-,0+,(
lhal is in foice, vhich ve viole in 1984, 25 yeais ago.
This voIune is a ieeclion of lhe opeialion and con3
lal liaining of lhe lioops and lheii opeialing laclics. If
lhe Aiiloine Tioops have ienained al lhe piehisloiic
IeveI, lhen ve can conhdenlIy say lhal lhe CeneiaI
Slaff and lhe iesl of lhe lioops conlinue lo liain foi a
pasl vai.
The Ceoigian Wai vas a valeished foi Russia. Il
vas cIeai lhal lhe Russian niIilaiy vas pIagued vilh
aged equipnenl, haidvaie, and veaponiy, vhich
24
veie dangeiousIy coupIed vilh ineffeclive connand
0-, 7/-.+/6 (5(.#8(9 *//+ 7/882-&70.&/-(9 0-, &-3
leiseivice cooidinalion. Theie veie aIso inleIIigence
suppoil faiIings, faiIuie of lhe gIolaI saleIIile naviga3
lion syslen (CLONASS), and highei lhan anlicipaled
casuaIlies pailIy as a iesuIl of piolIens vilh inade3
quale Idenlihcalion of Iiiend oi Ioe (III) equipnenl.
In Augusl 2OO8, lhe independenl Russian niIilaiy
-#'(*0*#+9 Nczatisincqc tcqcnncqc coczrcniqc, -/.#,
lhal 6O-75 peicenl of 58lh Ainy lanks depIoyed in
Ceoigia veie lhe oId T-62, T-72M, and T-72M, none
of vhich couId vilhsland Ceoigian anlilank vai3
heads.
Theie vas even conlioveisy anong lhe nev veap3
ons lhal veie leing pioduced: vhen discussing lhe
nev T-9O lank in }uIy 2OO8, lhen connandei-in-chief
of Ciound Ioices Ainy CeneiaI AIexei MasIov open3
Iy adnilled lhal Russian lanks veie Iagging lehind
olhei counliies in lhe use of nodein eIeclionics. As he
pul il, aIlhough voik lo deveIop a lank lallIeheId in3
foinalion nanagenenl syslen is aIieady undei vay,
ils inslaIIalion on ouldaled lank nodeIs is loo coslIy
and lheiefoie nol ieconnended.
58

One couId go on, lul lhe lollon Iine is lhal veap3
ons and equipnenl in lhe cuiienl Russian Ainy is
anliqualed al lesl. In }une 2OO9, lhe MoD slaled lhal
lhe oulhlling of lioops (foices) vilh ains and vilh
8&6&.0+5 0-, (*#7&06 #=2&*8#-. 72++#-.65 +#80&-( 0.
a IeveI of fion 6O lo 1OO peicenl, lul lhe piopoilion
of nodein nodeIs is aiound 1O peicenl.
59
Il viII le
nany yeais~peihaps nol unliI 2O2O, a yeai oflen
suggesled ly Russian niIilaiy anaIysls~lefoie lhe
niIilaiy lhal has leen ieduced lo cIose lo one niIIion
peisonneI and is undeigoing najoi sliucluiaI changes
viII have a ieIaliveIy nodein ained foice once again.
25
3!-5O !=24=8O-6 5367842 @;268! =;
;@@!8= 6;5M85=-;547 984N58!!8!
Il is cIeai lhal lhe KienIins allenpl lo nainlain a
sliong nucIeai deleiienl lo piovide an unlieIIa vhiIe
Russias convenlionaI foices veie nodeinized faiIed
on lolh giounds. Iiisl, vhiIe Russia nainlained a nu3
cIeai deleiienl of soils, if anylhing il decieased duiing
lhe YeIlsin, Iulin, and Medvedev peiiods. As Iong as
one has lhe oplion of a nucIeai hisl use, Moscov has
a nucIeai deleiienl, lul il is fai Iess lhan il vas in 1993
oi even 2OOO. Iuilheinoie, foi piaclicaI puiposes, il is
Iiniled lo giound lased ICMs foi lhe innediale fu3
luie. The olhei lvo Iegs of lhe nucIeai liiad~lhe uIa3
%0 -0%06 %0+&0-. &( ,5(12-7.&/-06 ./ ."&( */&-.9 0-, ."#
fev olsoIele Tu-95MS and TU-16O LAR lonleis~foi
aII piaclicaI puiposes aie iiieIevanl.
Tuining lo lhe convenlionaI foices, lhe niIilaiy
is cIeaiIy in a peiiod of liansilion. Defense Minislei
Seidyukov has undeilaken a najoi iesliucluiing of
lhe Russian niIilaiy and faces a nonunenlaI lask in
updaling and nodeinizing ils veapons syslens. If
anylhing, lhe quaIily of lhe cuiienl invenloiy has con3
.&-2#, ./ ,#.#+&/+0.# ,#(*&.# (/8# #11/+.( ./ 8/,#+-3
ize lhen. Weapons syslens fion lhe 197Os, 198Os, and
even 199Os aie eveiyvheie, lul lhey aie of IillIe use
againsl veapons syslens lased on lechnoIogy fion
lhe 21sl cenluiy.
Theie is a najoi piolIen facing lolh lhe nodein3
izalion of nucIeai and convenlionaI veapons, and lhal
&( ."# (0, (.0.# &- '"&7" ."# 8&6&.0+53&-,2(.+&06 7/83
pIex hnds ilseIf. As a Russian geneiaI pul il in ApiiI
2O1O, The Defense Minisliy cannol luy sonelhing
lhal does nol guaianlee paiily in lhe evenl of a con3
icl. . . . The ainy cannol luy ailiIIeiy vilh a iange of
26
2O kiIoneleis vhen lhe eneny has 7O kiIoneleis.
6O
In
anolhei inslance, lhe sane ofhcei nade il cIeai lhal if
inconpelence and coiiuplion nean lhal Russia can3
nol hnd quaIily convenlionaI veapons in Russia, il
viII have lo puichase lhen alioad~a slinging indicl3
nenl of lhe counliys doneslic indusliiaI conpIex. To
quole hin again:
VIadinii Iopovkin said . . . lhal lhe niIilaiy paid de3
fense indusliy a R5 liIIion advance foi lhe luiIding of
unnanned aeiiaI vehicIes, lul nevei did acquiie lhe
vehicIes, vhich aie so nuch needed ly lhe heId. And
lhis is vhy il vas foiced lo puichase lhen in IsiaeI.
The piolIen is nol a Iack of knov-hov oi aliIily, il
is lhe lackvaidness of lhe avaiIalIe lechnoIogy of
enleipiises of lhe OIK (defense indusliiaI conpIex).
The facl is lhal ceilain diieclois of design luieaus and
pIanls, inslead of channeIing lhe aIIocaled funds inlo
."# *2+7"0(# /1 8/,#+- *+/,27.&/- 6&-#(9 *2. ."#8
inlo lhe lank lo ollain inleiesl lo luiId up lheii nai3
gins.
61
Hov and vhen Russian indusliy viII le in a po3
(&.&/- ./ *+/,27# =206&.5 '#0*/-(9 '"#."#+ &. &( 0
uIava nissiIe oi a nodein hghlei jel oi an ainoied
vehicIe, is unceilain. UnliI il is alIe lo do so, hovevei,
lhe chances of Moscov calching up vilh lhe Wesl in
#&."#+ 0+#0 0+# 8&-&806 2-6#(( &. *2+7"0(#( 066 /1 &.(
veapons alioad.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 K
1. Rose CollenoeIIei, NucIeai Weapons in Cuiienl Russian
IoIicy, in Sleven L. MiIIei and Dnilii Tienin, eds., Tnc Russian
Mi|i|arq. Pcucr and Pc|icq, Canliidge, MA: MIT Iiess, 2OO4, pp.
183-186.
27
2. VIadinii Dvoikin, Russias Slialegic NucIeai Ioices aflei
lhe USSR: Refoining and Iiospecls, in Yuii Iedoiov and ei3
liI Nygien, eds., Russian Mi|i|arq Rcfcrn and Russias Ncu Sccuri|q
|ntircnncn|, SlockhoIn, Sveden: Svedish NalionaI Defense CoI3
Iege, 2OO3, p. 114..
3. |oid., p. 115.
4. Ioi a discussion of lhe piolIens fion a Russian peispec3
live, see DaIe R. Heispiing, Tnc Krcn|in and |nc Hign Ccnnand.
Prcsidcn|ia| |npac| cn |nc Russian Mi|i|arq frcn Gcroacnct |c Pu|in,
Lavience, KS: Univeisily Iiess of Kansas, 2OO6, esp. chap. 3.
5. Yuii Iedeiov, Nc |irs| Usc cf Nuc|car lcapcns, London, UK,
Puguasn Mcc|ing Nc. 27, Novenlei 15-17, 2OO2, p. 2.
6. Defense Minisliy on Refoin Lffoils - udgel, R||/R|
Dai|q Rcpcr|, Augusl 22, 1994.
7. Conveisalion vilhoul MiddIenen, Moscov TV, Seplen3
lei 14, 1995, |crcign 8rcadcas| |nfcrna|icn Scrticc Ccn|ra| |urasia
(|8|S SOV), Seplenlei 18, 1995.
8. |oid.
9. Ioi a copy of lhis docliine in LngIish, see The asic Iiovi3
sions of lhe MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Russian Iedeialion, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.fas.crg/nu|c/guidc/russia/dcc|rinc/russia-ni|-dcc.
n|n|.
1O. |oid., p. 3.
11. CeneiaI Maknul Caieev, }acol Kipp, ed., |f lar Ccncs Tc-
ncrrcu. Tnc Ccn|curs cf |u|urc Arncd Ccnic|, London, UK: Cass,
1998, p. 84.
12. CollenoeIIei, in MiIIei and Tienin, p. 186.
13. Heispiing, Tnc Krcn|in and |nc Hign Ccnnand, pp. 79-119.
14. As ciled in MichaeI }. Oii, Tnc Dccpcs| Crisis. Tnc Prco|cn
cf |nc Russian Arnq Tcdaq, Suiiey, UK: Conicl Sludies Reseaich
Cenlie, RoyaI MiIilaiy Acadeny Sandhuisl, Oclolei 4, 1996, p. 1.
28
15. The Svoid of Ciisis Ovei lhe MiIilaiy udgel, Krasnaqa
ztczda, }anuaiy 3O, 1999, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV, Ieliuaiy 1,
1999.
16. AIexei Ailalov, The Tiansfoinalion of Russian MiIilaiy
Docliine: Lessons Leained fion Kosovo and Chechnya, Marsna||
Ccn|cr Papcrs, No. 2, }uIy 2O, 2OOO, p. 8.
17. Ioi a delaiIed discussion of lhe poIilics invoIved vilh lhis
Concepl, see David }. elz, Citi|-Mi|i|arq Rc|a|icns in Russia and
|as|crn |urcpc, London, UK: RoulIedgeCuizon, 2OO4, p. 61.
18. See Nev MiIilaiy Docliine SliII IncIudes NucIeai Iiisl
Sliike, Tnc Russia ]curna|, May 12, 1999, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
|ncrussiajcurna|.ccn.indcx.n|n?ca|4c|qpc3coj529.
19. A copy of lhe 2OOO docunenl is as Dccuncn|, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.scrf.gct.ru.Apri|.
2O. Iedoiov, Nc |irs| Usc cf Nuc|car lcapcns, p. 3.
21. |oid.
22. AIexei Ailalov, The DiIenna of MiIilaiy IoIicy in Rus3
sia, Nczatisinaqa gazc|a, Novenlei 6, 2OOO, avaiIalIe fion ng.ru/
prin|cd/idcas/2000-11-16/8_di|cnna.n|n|.
23. |oid., p. 2.
24. Iedeiov, Nc |irs| Usc cf Nuc|car lcapcns, p. 6.
25. AIexandi CoIls, Arniqa rcssi. 11 pc|crqannq|n |c|, Moscov,
Russia: Zakhaiov, 2OO4, p. 139.
26. Vicloi I. Lsin, The MiIilaiy Refoin in lhe Russian Iedeia3
lion: IiolIens, Decisions and Iiospecls, in Iedeiov and Nygien,
p. 1O2.
27. Chiislophei LocksIey, Concepl, AIgoiilhn, Indecision:
Why MiIilaiy Refoin Has IaiIed in Russia since 1992, S|atic Mi|-
i|arq S|udics, VoI. 14, No. 1, Maich 2OO1, p. 16.
29
28. Hope CIinneis foi Refoin, Mcsccu Tincs, Maich 29,
2OO1, }ohnsons Lisl, Maich 29, 2OO1.
29. DeveIopnenl Slialegy of lhe Ained Ioices Dehned,
Mi|i|arq Ncus 8u||c|in, No. 8, Augusl 2OOO.
3O. |cdcra|nqi za|cn co cocrcnc ApiiI 24, 1996, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.ni|.ru/ar|ic|cs/ar|ic|cs3863.sn|n|.
31. InleinalionaI Inslilule Ioi Slialegic Sludies, Tnc Mi|i|arq
8a|ancc, 1999-2000, London, UK: Oxfoid Univeisily Iiess, 1999,
p. 111.
32. Ains ConlioI Associalion, Russia DepIoys Six TopoI-M
Long-Range MissiIes, }anuaiy/Ieliuaiy 2OO1.
33. DeveIopnenl of Russias NucIeai Ioices Said Thieal3
ened ly Lack of Iunding, Agcn|s|tc Vcqnnq|n Nctcs|cq, Oclolei
29, 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV, Novenlei 2, 2OO4.
34. S|cncgrajcncs|iq c|cnc| c sctcsncnanii ru|ctcdqasncncgc
scs|atc Vccruzncnnq|n Si|, avaiIalIe fion prcsidcn|.|rcn|in.ru/ap-
pcars/2005/11/09/2022_|rcoc6337|qrc63381_969885.sn|n|.
35. Russias Reaining Too SIov lo Conpele, |n|crfax, No3
venlei 11, 2OO5, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV, Novenlei 12, 2OO5.
36. Russia Tesls MissiIe AlIe lo Ieneliale Defense as Iulin
Wains of Luiopean Iovdei Keg, Spacc lar, May 29, 2OO7.
37. Defense Minislei Iiesenls Nev Slialegic MissiIe, R||/
R| Rcpcr|> Seplenlei 29, 2OO5.
38. Russian Navy OfhciaI Conhins IaiIuie of uIava MissiIe
Syslen, |n|crfax, Oclolei 25, 2OO6.
39. See The 'uIava ShouId e Iul in lhe KienIin: Il Does
Nol IIy, Mcs|cts|iq Kcnscnc|c|s On|inc, Augusl 2, 2OO9, avaiI3
alIe fion |8|S SOV, Augus| 4, 2009.
4O. |oid.
41. Minisliy of Defense has Wiillen Lalesl Concepl, Nczati-
3O
sincqc tccqcnncqc coczrcinqc, Augusl 19, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion |8|S
SOV, Augusl 2O, 2OO8.
42. Iiogianned foi IaiIuie, Pratda-KPR|, Ieliuaiy 2,
2OO9.
43. Navy Connandei in Chief: Theies Nolhing vilh vhich
lo RepIace lhe uIava, Grani.ru, Decenlei 16, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 |8|S SOV, Decenlei 17, 2OO9.
44. Thiee-Way Liioi Melhod, Kcnncrsan| On|inc, May 25,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV, May 26, 2O1O.
45. |oid.
46. Connandei of Long-Range Avialion OulIines Iuluie
IIans, R|A-Nctcs|i, Decenlei 21, 2OO5, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV9
Decenlei 22, 2OO5.
47. Russian Aii Ioice Celling Nev onleis, Iighleis and
HeIicopleis, Agcn|s|tc tcqcnnq|n nctcs|cq, }une 17, 2OO6, avaiI3
alIe fion |8|S SOV, }une 18, 2OO6.
48. Slialegic Avialion Mainlain Ioinalion! Supeisonic Tu-
16Os Ovei lhe Ocean ioke Avay fion NATO Inleiceplois, Ar-
guncn|q Ncdc|i On|inc, May 1O, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV9
May 11, 2O1O.
49. Russian CeneiaI CaIIs foi Diafling Nev NalionaI Secu3
iily Docliine, Inleifax, ApiiI 17, 2OO3, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV9
ApiiI 18, 2OO3.
5O. Iulin on Iieenplion A|P, avaiIalIe fion }ohnsons
Lisl, Oclolei 9, 2OO3.
51. Tiue MiIilaiy Refoins aie LnliieIy Up lo lhe Iiesidenl,
Nctqc |ztcs|iqa, ApiiI 6, 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion }ohnsons Lisl, ApiiI
6, 2OO4.
52. CeneiaI Caieyev Says Russia Changing ils MiIilaiy Doc3
liine, R|A-Nctcs|i, }anuaiy 8, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV9
}anuaiy 8, 2OO7.
31
53. The MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Russian Iedeialion Ap3
pioved ly Russian Iedeialion IiesidenliaI Ldicl on 5 Ieliuaiy
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.sras.crg/ni|i|arq_dcc|rinc_russian_fcd-
cra|icn_2010.
54. Dniliy Coienluig, Russias Nev MiIilaiy Docliine: An
Lxeicise in IulIic ReIalions, Ieliuaiy 8, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion rus-
siani|.ucrdprcss.ccn/2010/02/08/russias-ncu-ni|i|arq-dcc.
55. Lighl Yeais of IaIIing ehind and Weakening, Nczatisi-
naqa gazc|a, No. 27, Ieliuaiy 13, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV9
Ieliuaiy 14, 2OO8.
56. Svoid of lhe Lnpiie, Zat|ra, Oclolei 5, 2OO8, avaiIalIe
1+/8 |8|S SOV, Oclolei 6, 2OO8.
57. |oid.
58. Russian CeneiaI OulIines IIan lo SuppIy Ainy vilh
Nev Ainoied Lquipnenl, |n|crfax, Novenlei 15, 2OO8, avaiI3
alIe fion |8|S SOV, Novenlei 16, 2OO8.
59. NalionaI Secuiily Iiioiilies: Inpioving LegisIalive Sup3
poil foi MiIilaiy OiganizalionaI DeveIopnenl, Vcqcnnc-Prc-
nqsn|cnnqq Kurqcr, }une 2O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion |8|S SOV, }une
21, 2OO9.
6O. Russian MiIilaiy Refuses lo uy Russian Ainys Infeiioi
lo Ioieign Counleipails, |n|crfax, ApiiI 19, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
|8|S SOV, ApiiI 22, 2O1O.
61. UIlinalun lo Defense Indusliy: The Russian Ainy
Has AIieady een Ioiced lo Iuichase Weapons foin Oveiseas
Iiins, Nczatisinaqa gazc|a, ApiiI 11, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion |8|S
SOV, ApiiI 12, 2O1O.
33
6L4:=82 I
23!!-4T! 6;5M85=-;547 42Q8? @;268!<
28@;2Q 45? 5367842 :;!=328 =; IJIJ
20&%# 5D Q(?%#G0""
AIlhough Russian defense iefoin vas aIieady in
ils advanced pIanning slages piioi lo Augusl 2OO8, lhe
Russia-Ceoigia vai seived lo faciIilale Iaunching lhe
nev effoil lo iefoin and nodeinize lhe convenlionaI
ained foices. This iefoin, iepackaged as lhe nev
Iook, vas nol onIy anlilious in ils scope and ains
lul vouId, if inpIenenled, fundanenlaIIy liansfoin
lhe Russian niIilaiy. IoinaIIy announced in Oclo3
lei 2OO8, vilh lhe adninislialive oi oiganizalionaI
eIenenls iapidIy caiiied oul lhioughoul 2OO9, and
piogiessing lovaids achieving key laigels ly 2O12,
Defense Minislei AnaloIiy Seidyukovs iefoins have
ieveaIed conliadiclions and unfoieseen chaIIenges,
vhiIe lhe iesuIling coiieclive piocesses exposed a
degiee of ieconcepluaIizalion.
1
The deIicale laIance
achieved in avoiding lhe iefoin leing undeinined,
eilhei lhiough inslilulionaI ineilia oi unliI nov IaigeIy
&-#11#7.&%# /+ 0. .&8#( &++0.&/-06653&-(*&+#, 7+&.&7(9 '&66
conlinue unliI lhese issues aie iesoIved, nosl IikeIy,
nol lefoie 2O12.
2
!82?R3N;MT! 28@;2Q
On Oclolei 14, 2OO8, aflei Ieaks aloul lhe iefoin
agenda and a peiiod of ieecling on lhe opeialionaI
Iessons of lhe canpaign in Ceoigia, Seidyukov liiefed
lhe defense ninisliy coIIegiun in cIosed session. Vik3
loi Zavaizin, lhe Head of lhe Dunas Defense Con3
34
nillee, and Vikloi Ozeiov, lhe Head of lhe Defense
and Secuiily Connillee of lhe IedeiaI CounciI, veie
iepoiledIy nol peinilled lo allend.
3
As lhe agenda
eneiged, Vikloi IIyukhin, a nenlei of lhe Slale
Duna, said ils success vouId IaigeIy depend upon
deveIoping inpioved sociaI condilions foi seivice3
nen, piocuiing nodein veapons, and enhancing lhe
nanagealiIily and discipIine of lhe lioops. AIeksandi
VIadiniiov, lhe Vice-Iiesidenl of lhe CoIIege of MiIi3
laiy Lxpeils, advocaled deveIoping nev piogians
and slyIes of leaching ofhceis ained al pioducing a
geneialion of ofhceis vilh a deep undeislanding of
geopoIilics and gIolaI liends.
4
The lioulIe is lhal fev
undeislood lhe agenda pieciseIy, vhich oflen iesuIl3
ed in ciilicisn nol ieaIIy nalching vhal vas unfoId3
ing, oi focusing upon one aspecl al lhe expense of lhe
lioadei picluie.
Seidyukov secuied lhe foinaI appiovaI of lhe coI3
Iegiun, liiehng lhen on Pcrspc||itnq co|i| Vccruzncn-
nq|n Si| R| i pcrtcccncrcdnqc ncrq pc cgc fcrnirctaniu
na 2009-2020 gcdq (Tnc |u|urc Ou||cc| cf |nc Russian
|cdcra|icn Arncd |crccs and Pricri|ics fcr i|s Crca|icn
in |nc pcricd 2009-2020). Al ils heail, lhe iefoin con3
cepl neanl lhe alandonnenl of lhe nass noliIiza3
.&/- *+&-7&*6# ."0. "0, (#+%#, ."# &-.#+#(.( /1 ."# (.0.#
since lhe 19lh cenluiy iefoins conducled ly Dniliy
MiIyulin. This leing lhe case, il vouId no Iongei nake
sense lo aigue lhal lhe Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiga3
nizalion (NATO) posed any niIilaiy lhieal lo Rus3
sia lhal iequiied noliIizalion. Thal conlioveisy vas
veII-conceaIed lenealh pIans lo dovnsize, oi noie
accuialeIy slieanIine, lhe ofhcei coips.
5

In Oienluig on Seplenlei 26, 2OO8, Russian Iiesi3
denl Dniliy Medvedev nel vilh lhe connandeis of
niIilaiy disliicls, oulIined lhe ieasons foi iefoining
35
lhe ained foices, and iefeiied lo hve decisive faclois
in niIilaiy deveIopnenl.
6
These veie:
1. Inpioving lhe oiganizalion and sliucluie of lhe
foices ly conveiling aII divisions and liigades lo pei3
nanenl ieadiness liigades, aloIishing lhe nass noli3
Iizalion piincipIe and alandoning lhe division-lased
syslen.
2. Lnhancing lhe oveiaII efhciency of connand
and conlioI (C
2
) (Ialei inleipieled as opling foi a
lhiee-lieied sliucluie: opeialionaI connand-niIilaiy
disliicl-liigade).
3. Inpioving lhe peisonneI liaining syslen, in3
cIuding niIilaiy educalion and niIilaiy science.
4. Lquipping lhe ained foices vilh lhe Ialesl
veapon syslens and inleIIigence assels, piinaiiIy
high-lechnoIogy, in oidei lo achieve aii supeiioiily,
deIivei piecision sliikes on giound and naiiline lai3
gels, and ensuie opeialionaI foice depIoynenl.
5. Inpioving lhe sociaI slalus of niIilaiy peison3
neI, incIuding pay and aIIovances, housing, and ev3
eiyday Iiving condilions as veII as a lioad iange of
suppoil packages.
7
CaiefuI anaIysis of lhe sliucluie of foieign, in3
cIuding NATO, niIilaiies had convinced lhe iefoin3
eis lo adopl an ofhcei lo enIisled peisonneI ialio of
1:15. The pie-iefoin 355,OOO ofhcei posilions vouId
lhus le paied lack lo onIy 15O,OOO and nev denands
vouId le pIaced on lhese ofhceis.
8
>( -/. 066 */(&.&/-(
veie hIIed, lhe pIanning envisaged shedding 2O5,OOO
ofhcei posls ly 2O12 in oidei lo oplinize lhe syslen
ly addiessing ils lop heavy fealuies lhal iesuIled
in having noie coIoneIs and Iieulenanl-coIoneIs lhan
junioi ofhceis.
9
The ofhcei ieduclions veie seveie: lhe
nunlei of seiving geneiaIs vas lo le ieduced fion
36
1,1O7 as of Seplenlei 1, 2OO8, lo 886 ly 2O12. CoIoneI
posls veie sIashed fion 25,665 lo 9,114, najois fion
99,55O lo 25,OOO, and caplains fion 9O,OOO lo 4O,OOO.
The onIy inciease vas lo affecl Iieulenanls, incieasing
fion 5O,OOO lo 6O,OOO. In an inleiviev vilh Rcssiqa TV
in Maich 2O1O, Seidyukov expIained lhal anolhei 3
yeais veie iequiied, and he iepoiled lhal 67,OOO of3
hceis had leen disnissed fion seivice in 2OO9.
1O
If lhal
hguie vas ieIialIe, lhey veie appioxinaleIy 5O,OOO
avay fion lhe sel laigel ly lhe spiing of 2O1O (aIIov3
ing foi shedding lhe 2-yeai ofhceis) and on couise lo
conpIele lhe dovnsizing ly 2O12. Hovevei, sone de3
fense ofhciaIs queslioned vhelhei 15 peicenl vas lhe
coiiecl laigel and even suggesled fuilhei paiing lack
lhe ofhcei coips lo 9 peicenl of lhe oveiaII nanning
sliucluie.
11

Upon conpIelion, lhe nev Iook vouId alandon
lhe liadilionaI division-lased syslen and iepIace il
vilh a liigade-lased sliucluie geaied lovaids na3
neuveialiIily. Cadie unils veie lo le jellisoned and
in lheii pIace onIy peinanenl ieadiness foinalions
vouId ienain. AIlhough lhe liansfoinalion inpacled
on lhe aii foice and navy, lhe giealesl inpacl vas on
lhe giound foices, vilh 85 liigades foined in 2OO9
and divisions dislanded, vhiIe lheii pie-iefoin lolaI
of 1,89O unils vas eainaiked foi ieduclion lo onIy
172 unils and foinalions. In lhe aii foice, vhich con3
veiled lo a squadion-lased syslen, onIy 18O of lhe 34O
unils vouId ienain, vhiIe lhe navy vas scheduIed
lo nove fion 24O unils lo 123. The Slialegic Rockel
Ioices (SRI) (Ra|c|nqc Vcqs|a S|ra|cgicncs|cgc Naz-
nacncniqa |RVSNj) veie lo le slieanIined fion 12 lo
8 divisions. The aiiloine foices (Vczdusnnc Dcsan|nqc
Vcqs|a |VDVj) veie ieduced fion 6 lo 5 and faced a
liigade-lased iesliucluiing, an indicalion of a one-
37
size-hls-aII appioach, aIlhough lhis vas Ialei success3
fuIIy iesisled ly lhe VDV, despile lhe facl lhal il had
aIvays depIoyed al sul-divisionaI IeveI vilh a lii3
gade headquaileis in ils iecenl conlal hisloiy.
12
!"#
aii foice had lo shed 5O,OOO posilions,
13
oi aiound 3O
peicenl of exisling aii foice ofhcei posilions. In }anu3
aiy 2OO9, CoIoneI-CeneiaI AIexandei ZeIin, lhe Con3
nandei in Chief (CINC) of lhe Vcqcnnc-Vczdusnnqqc
Si|q (VVS) conhined lhal lhe iesliucluiing of lhe aii
foice vas undeivay: iefoining 8O peicenl of unils,
anong vhich 1O peicenl veie lo le dislanded, 22
peicenl iedepIoyed, and 68 peicenl vouId expeiience
slaff changes.
14
The oveiaII diiving foice in lhe liansi3
lion lo lhe liigade-lased sliucluie vas lo enhance lhe
naneuveialiIily of lhe giound foices.
15

Seidyukov aIso laigeled lhe navy. IniliaIIy lhis
cenleied on ieIocaling ils headquaileis lo Sl. Ieleis3
luig, lhough lhe coslIy nove vas poslponed in ie3
(*/-(# ./ 7/-7#+- /%#+ ."# +#7#((&/- 0-, /**/(&.&/-
fion seiving adniiaIs.
16
In ApiiI 2OO9, lhe liansfei
piocess vas suspended: of lhe nain connands
8OO slaffeis, onIy 2O favoied lhe nove.
17
Reai Seivices
veie dovnsized, Iosing 4O peicenl of aII ofhceis, in3
cIuding a nunlei of geneiaIs: 12,5OO posls incIuding
5,6OO ofhceis and vaiianl ofhceis. elveen 23 lo 4O
*#+7#-. /1 066 7&%&6&0- */(.( '#+# #6&8&-0.#,9
18
Ieaving
aiound 3OO individuaIs in lhe Reai Seivices cenliaI
appaialus.
19
Many of ils funclions veie civiIianized,
ianging fion caleiing seivices, using civiIian enlei3
piises lo piovide fueI, lo lhe piovision of lalhing and
Iaundiy seivices foi lhe lioops.
2O

38
-GAE%G%."$"'0.D
Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff (CCS) Ainy-CeneiaI
NikoIai Makaiov, a ciilicaI suppoilive hguie in lhe
iefoin, noled in Decenlei 2OO8 lhal lo oveisee and
8/-&./+ ."# &8*6#8#-.0.&/- /1 ."# +#1/+89 ."# @#-3
eiaI Slaff senl ils iepiesenlalives inlo Iine unils. Theii
soIe lask vas lo iepoil on any inslances of individu3
aIs seeking lo salolage lhe iefoin.
21
Duiing 2OO9, lhe
sliucluiaI iefoins pIanned as pail of Seidyukovs
iefoins veie IaigeIy successfuI, in vhal ly any slan3
daid iepiesenled a signihcanl crganiza|icna| 07"&#%#3
nenl. In lhe piocess lhe nass noliIizalion syslen,
cadies, and divisions (apail fion lhe VDV) aII passed
quielIy inlo hisloiy. Ofhcei dovnsizing pioved noie
conpIex, vilh vaiious hguies ciled al diffeienl lines
as il piogiessed. Hovevei, ly Iale 2OO9, ofhciaIIy, 85
peinanenl ieadiness liigades had leen foined as
'#66 0-, ."# -#' ."+##3.&#+#, 7/880-, 0-, 7/-.+/6
syslen vas in pIace. MedicaI slaff Iosl 1O,OOO ofhcei
posls and 22 niIilaiy hospilaIs veie cIosed.
22
>,,&3
lionaIIy, 8O peicenl of aII Iavyeis veie disnissed, and
onIy 2O ofhcei posilions in niIilaiy nedia oiganiza3
lions ienained~pieseiving lhose voiking foi lhe of3
hciaI defense ninisliy pulIicalion, Krasnaqa Ztczda.
MiIilaiy educalionaI inslilulions veie aIso eainaiked
foi ieduclion fion 65 lo 1O, lhiee niIilaiy educalionaI
7#-.#+(9 (&) 070,#8&#(9 0-, /-# 8&6&.0+5 2-&%#+(&.5
(slieanIining lhe CeneiaI Slaff Acadeny), vhich
vas needed lo seive a nev ioIe lased on hIIing lhe
liigades vilh effeclive connandeis and pionoling
efhciency and highei slandaids in lhese inslilulions.
Depuly Defense Minislei Ainy-CeneiaI NikoIay Ian3
kov said nosl of lhe pievious 65 inslilulions veie
onIy 6O-7O peicenl fuII, and consequenlIy lhey veie
39
conlined.
23
The piesligious CeneiaI Slaff Acadeny
had ils 17 chaiis ieduced lo lvo (lhe ail of vai and
nalionaI secuiily and defense) and inslead of ils usuaI
1OO-12O annuaI giaduales, adnilled onIy 16 sludenls
al lhe one-slai IeveI in 2OO9-1O. These veie laughl a
ievised cuiiicuIun (foi exanpIe, sludenls no Iongei
needed lo sludy lhe division).
24
Il is aIso voilh noling lhal, jusl as Iiesidenl Medve3
dev and Iiine Minislei VIadinii Iulin aie connonIy
iefeiied lo as lhe iuIing landen, so loo in defense
leins lheie is aIso an effeclive landen: Seidyukov and
Makaiov. The Iallei had his seivice exlended ly piesi3
denliaI deciee aflei ieaching ieliienenl age (6O) in
Oclolei 2OO9. This pailneiship lelveen lhe hisl liuIy
civiIian Russian defense ninislei (Seigei Ivanov vas a
foinei IedeiaI Secuiily Seivice (|cdcra|naqa S|uznoa
8czcpasncs|i) |ISj ofhcei) and lhe Chief of lhe Cenei3
aI Slaff (CCS) nay veII le insliunenlaI in pionoling
and conducling lhe iefoin, lul il vouId le nisIead3
ing lo chaiacleiize lhe iefoin as leing lhe voik of a
snaII oi naveiick eIile: il sinpIy couId nol le enacled
vilhoul lhe aclive pailicipalion of nany olhei aclois,
*0+.&7260+65 ."# si|cti|i (niIilaiy poIilicians).
60."#$+'("'0., $.+ 6B$EE%.&%,D
AInosl 2 yeais inlo lhe iefoin, nuneious conlia3
diclions and chaIIenges have suifaced. Hov can such
high IeveIs of ieadiness le achieved if lhe nanning of
such liigades is noslIy lased upon 12-nonlh-seivice
consciipls` Is lhis enough line lo liain and achieve
necessaiy slandaids` Theie is no consensus vilhin lhe
defense ninisliy and CeneiaI Slaff on lhe piecise na3
luie of lhe nanning syslen: a videspiead iecognilion
."0. ."# #)*#+&8#-. '&." 7/-.+07. *#+(/--#6 "0( 10&6#,
4O
has nol leen foIIoved ly any olvious soIulion. Theie
is disagieenenl ovei lhe Ienglh of consciipl seivice,
oi, faced vilh a dvindIing consciipl pooI, vhelhei lo
inciease lhe naxinun age foi seivice fion 27 yeais of
age lo 3O.
Much has leen nade of exlensive pIanning lo
&-.+/,27# 0 -#' *+/1#((&/-06 -/-37/88&((&/-#, /13
hcei (NCO), vilh lhe hisl of lhese leing liained in a
nev NCO liaining cenlei al lhe eIile Ryazan aiiloine
schooI. The Connandei of lhe VDV, Lieulenanl-
CeneiaI VIadinii Shananov, vas specihcaIIy lasked
vilh incuIcaling lhe spiiil of lhe VDV anong lhese
nev NCOs. AII veie iequiied lo nake paiachule
428*( 0-, '#+# 8#.&726/2(65 .+0&-#, &- 0 7/2+(# 60(.3
ing 2 yeais and 1O nonlhs. Yel, despile lhe shoilage
of enlianls lo lhe cenlei (il opened in Decenlei 2OO9
vilh undei 26O sludenls), lheie aie aIso conliadicloiy
slalenenls conceining lhe undeiIying NCO concepl:
viII lhese NCOs in lhe fuluie lake on lhe luiden of
connanding lheii unils, and viII lheii connand3
ing ofhceis cone lo leins vilh deIegaling aulhoiily`
Addiessing lhe defense ninisliy coIIegiun on Maich
5, 2O1O, Iiesidenl Medvedev said such NCOs in lhe
fuluie nay lake on connand ioIes, vhich does nol
heIp lo cIaiify lheii acluaI ioIe. Medvedev slaled lhal:
NCOs shouId le capalIe, if rcquircd, lo sulslilule foi
ofhceis of lhe piinaiy IeveI.
25

Anolhei ciilicaI facloi in neasuiing lhe success
of Seidyukovs iefoin viII le lhe liansfoinalion of
lhe ofhcei coips. Yel, lheie is aIso no cIeai consen3
sus on vhal nodeI ofhcei Russian defense pIanneis
have in nind, noi has lheie leen any pIanning foi
hov lo achieve lhis. Inslead, lheie aie IooseIy fianed
aspiialions caIIing foi lellei lypes of ofhceis. Repoil3
edIy, coiiuplion peisisls vilhin lhe ofhcei coips. If
41
lheie is a conceiled effoil lo nininize oi eIininale
lhis scouige, hov viII lhe defense ninisliy conducl
such a poIicy` WiII an ofhcei knovn foi his conpe3
lence and connand aliIilies le sacked if he is found
guiIly of coiiuplion` Indeed, lhe chaIIenges facing
lhe nev Iook nay le noie iooled in nanning issues
such as lhese lhan in oveiconing lhe piolIens associ3
aled vilh equipnenl and veapons nodeinizalion. Of
couise, lhese denands aie eneiging fion lhe diive
lo nodeinize lhe invenloiy, as veII as fion effoils lo
upgiade connand and conlioI and adopl nelvoik-
cenliic vaifaie capaliIilies. Such a lechnoIogicaI and
infoinalion-lased niIilaiy enviionnenl viII necessi3
lale a signihcanlIy highei IeveI of educalion lo equip
ofhceis lo neel such denanding chaIIenges.
SuipiisingIy in lhis conlexl, lhe defense ninisliy
expended sulslanliaI eneigy and line on papei chas3
ing. Seidyukov connissioned lhe diafling of a viillen
code of honoi. In Novenlei 2O1O, lhe 3id AII-Ainy
Confeience of ainy and navy ofhceis vas scheduIed
in Moscov lo discuss foinuIaling piincipIes of coipo3
iale elhics anong Russian ofhceis in lhe Iongei-lein
Iook of lhe ained foices. Thal delale vas encouiaged
vilhin unils. This is an inpoilanl slep, as CoIoneI (Re3
liied) VilaIiy ShIykov leIieves lhal a code of coipoiale
elhics viII iesuIl in a fundanenlaIIy nev IeveI of
piofessionaIisn vilhin lhe Russian niIilaiy. Nonelhe3
6#((9 ."# ,#%#6/*8#-. /1 0- #."/( 0-, 0 7/,# /1 #."&7(
anong ofhceis viII lake line lo deveIop. Il is a posilive
inilialive lo inlioduce a cIeai code foi ofhceis. Hov3
evei, as Aneiican ofhceis say, lhey need lo vaIk lhe
vaIk, nol sinpIy le avaie of a codihed appioach lo
lheii inpoilanl ioIe, lul aIso lo Iive and seive as an
inspiialionaI exanpIe lo lheii nen. Highei slandaids
/1 42(.&7# 0-, 8/+06 7"0+07.#+ 0+# ,#80-,#, 1+/8 /13
42
hceis conpaied vilh sociely and lhose vhon lhey
Iead, and lhe foinuIalion of a codihed docunenl in
Russia viII no doull sel a lenchnaik againsl vhich
ofhcei slandaids can le oulIined and neasuied,
lhough lhe Iongei-lein lask is lo encouiage a conslanl
sliiving foi exceIIence anong ofhceis lhiough a va3
iiely of nechanisns incIuding incenlives.
26
>( ."#(#
issues aie exanined ly Russian ofhceis, aII loo oflen
lhey iegaid sociely sinpIy as a souice of piolIens foi
lhe niIilaiy, faiIing lo appieciale jusl hov nuch Rus3
sian sociely has changed ovei lhe pasl 2O yeais. This
inslilulionaI nyopia viII IikeIy peisisl unliI an effoil
is nade lo adapl any agieed ofhcei nodeI lo ieecl
socielaI ieaIilies.
An anaIysis of lhe iefoin in lhe peiiod 2OO9-1O
highIighls nuneious olslacIes and ongoing chaIIeng3
es:
- The dovnsizing of lhe Russian ofhcei coips,
*60--#, '#66 &- 0,%0-7# /1 ."# 72++#-. +#1/+8(9
is leing iulhIessIy inpIenenled. Ils uninlended
consequence has leen lo ieduce ofhcei noiaIe
and pIace addilionaI luidens on lhose seiving.
- Senioi defense and niIilaiy ofhciaIs have
avoided offeiing piecise delaiI on hov lhe
dovnsizing is leing conducled, and conse3
quenlIy ofhciaI slalenenls and hguies aie oflen
nisIeading and conliadicloiy.
- Senioi IeveI ofhcei iolalions, disnissaIs, oi ie3
liienenls since lhe iefoin legan ieveaI a sys3
lenalic canpaign lo avoid lhe eneigence of
any coheienl and oiganized anli-iefoin nove3
nenl.
- The ofhcei culs veie diiven ly lhe need lo
enhance C
2
, and inpiove lhe efhciency of lhe
nanning syslen and veie iooled in a Russian
anaIysis of lhe sliucluie of veslein niIilaiies.
43
- The CeneiaI Slaff vanls lo deveIop a nev lype
of ofhcei, noie akin lo lheii veslein counlei3
pails, lul piesenlIy Iack any cIeaiIy dehned
nodeI foi ofhcei deveIopnenl.
- Coiiuplion and iII-discipIine has incieased
since lhe iefoin legan.
- The CeneiaI Slaff has idenlihed lhal lhe nen3
laIily of seiving ofhceis is lhe nain slunlIing
lIock in lhe palh of ofhcei iefoin.
- Russian opeialionaI-slialegic exeicises con3
ducled since lhe iefoin vas Iaunched conhin
lhal an unslaled ain of lhe nev Iook is lhe
adoplion of nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie capaliIi3
lies.
- LIenenls of lesling nelvoik-cenliic connand,
conlioI, and connunicalions (C
3
) syslens es3
lalIished lhe need lo adjusl ofhcei liaining and
exposed design avs in lhe nev lechnoIogy.
- Lxeicises, hovevei, ienained noslIy focused
on conlacl vaifaie, incIuding lolh offensive
and defensive opeialions.
- Ofhceis aie nov leing iapidIy laughl lhe piin3
cipIes and piaclicaI skiIIs needed in oidei lo
liansilion lovaids nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie.
- Weaknesses in laclicaI IeveI capaliIilies veie
aIso ieveaIed and iesuIled in shifling lhe liain3
ing focus in 2O1O lovaids inpioving individuaI
skiIIs.
- The independence and capaliIily of lhe nev
Iook liigades aie IikeIy lo le inpaiied foi
nany yeais ly lhe sIov iale of nodeinizalion
and ly fuilhei effoils lo inpiove lhe nanning
syslen and iefoin lhe ofhcei coips.
27
44
Many of lhese chaIIenges aie unIikeIy lo le ovei3
cone iapidIy. In lhe case of ofhcei iefoin foi exanpIe,
ialhei lhan achieving lhe Ieadeiships oljeclives (if
cIeaiIy dehned) ly 2O2O, il is noie ieaIislic lo expecl
lhe piocess (if puisued consislenlIy) lo lake a geneia3
lion. Ieihaps one of lhe cenliaI chaIIenges facing lhe
+#1/+8 +#60.#( ./ &.( 2-,#760+#, 0&89 '"&7" &( #%&,#-.
in niIilaiy exeicises and seveiaI aspecls of ofhcei
liaining and piocuienenl: lhe adoplion of nelvoik-
cenliic vaifaie piincipIes.
WhiIe Russian niIilaiy lheoiisls have Iong viillen
aloul and advocaled nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie, lhis
has inlensihed in lvo slages, vilh lhe hisl foIIoving
an anaIysis of lhe U.S.-Ied inleivenlion in Iiaq in 2OO3,
0-,9 8/+# +#7#-.659 01.#+ ."# 0--/2-7#8#-. /1 ."#
nev Iook. AIlhough lheie is cIeaiIy lheoielicaI un3
deislanding, even sophislicalion vilhin lhis delale,
il is equaIIy accuiale lo designale lhe Russian niIilaiy
as cuiienlIy leing al lhe leginning of a veiy Iong ioad
lovaids fuIIy adopling such concepls and appIying
lhen vilhin lheii sliucluies. This is nol, as sone con3
nenlalois oi goveinnenl ofhciaIs appeai incIined lo
leIieve, neieIy a queslion of lechnoIogy, piocuiing
lhe necessaiy high-lechnoIogy assels incIuding hav3
ing enough G|Ooa|naqa NAtiga|sicnnaqa Spu|ni|c-
taqa Sis|cna (CLONASS) saleIIiles in oilil, lul il aIso
*607#( ,#80-,( /- ."# 726.2+# /1 ."# 0+8#, 1/+7#( #)3
lending inlo lhoughl piocesses and alliludes.
28

Russia is sliII in lhe eaiIy slages of adopling nel3
voik-cenliic vaifaie, vhich viII liansilion fion lhe
cuiienl conlacl-lased capaliIilies lovaids leing alIe
lo conducl nonconlacl opeialions. Hovevei, il is nec3
essaiy lo sliess lhal lheie aie ieasons lo suggesl lhis
viII nol happen as iapidIy as lhe Russian Ieadeiship
nighl Iike. This is nol onIy Iinked lo lhe sIov iale of
45
piocuienenl (eslinales vilhin lhe Russian defense
indusliy suggesl lhal lheie is capacily lo liansfei hve
liigades pei annun lo aulonaled C
3
syslens) lul aIso
iaises inpoilanl defense pIanning issues.
29
If nelvoik-
cenliic vaifaie capaliIilies aie lhe cenliaI ain of lhe
iefoin, has lhis leen adequaleIy facloied inlo cuiienl
piocuienenl pIans` In olhei voids is lhe slale piioii3
lizing lhe coiiecl equipnenl and veapons syslens`
Ofhceis ieceiving addilionaI liaining duiing 2O1O on
hov lo issue oideis using such aulonaled lechnoIogy
+#*/+.#, ."0. ."# (/1.'0+# &( /%#+65 7/8*6&70.#, 0-,
lhe icons and olhei aspecls of lhe syslens need lo le
sinpIihed. If ofhceis aie expeiiencing such usei issues
il iaises fundanenlaI queslions aloul lhe end-usei le3
ing a 12-nonlh consciipl. This seens lo le noie lhan
neie leelhing issues.
3O
An addilionaI, deepei, and noie conpIex piolIen,
oi ialhei sel of piolIens, ieIales lo lhe division, dis3
agieenenl, and nisundeislanding lhal cuiienlIy ex3
isls on hov sinpIe oi conpIex lhese chaIIenges ieaIIy
aie and vhal il neans foi foice sliucluie and liaining.
Reading Russian viileis on nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie,
il is quile sliiking hov advanced and sophislicaled
lheii knovIedge can le, ieveaIing deep undeisland3
ing of lhese deveIopnenls in lhe U.S. and Chinese
ained foices in pailicuIai. Hovevei, lheie aie gaps
and a Iack of fuIIy agieed appioaches lo oveiconing
(27" &((2#(9 '"&7" 805 '#66 (#+%# ./ 7/8*6&70.# *60-3
ning decisions. Heie lhe iisk is, lo paiaphiase lhe foi3
nei Russian Iiine Minislei, Vikloi Cheinonyidin,
ve vanled lhe lesl, and ended up vilh vhal usuaIIy
happens. In a iecenl ailicIe in Nczatisincqc Vcqcn-
ncqc Ooczrcniqc assessing lhe conlouis of lhis delale,
Majoi-CeneiaI VasiIiy uienok, lhe Diiecloi of lhe
Defense Minisliys 46lh Reseaich and DeveIopnenl
46
Inslilule, exanined sone of lhese inconsislencies.
Noling lhal lhe nodeI of nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie is
foined of lhiee giids (sensoi, infoinalion, and con3
lal) he lhen denonslialed lhe vay lhal nany lheo3
iisls ovei-sinpIify lhe issues.
31

He noled lhal sone Russian niIilaiy scienlisls al3
lenpl lo piove lhal adopling nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie
iequiies no changes lo lhe pIans lo deveIop lhe ained
foices and lheii veapons syslens oi conlal nanuaIs
and insliuclions. Olheis aigue pieciseIy lhe opposile,
and ieconnend piocuiing nexl geneialion aina3
nenls as veII as nass-pioduced nelvoik-cenliic io3
lolic lechnoIogies lhal aie nol even avaiIalIe in vesl3
ein ainies. uienok succinclIy encapsuIaled lhe sheei
conpIexily in foining ained foices oiienled lovaids
nelvoik-cenliic opeialions, since il enlaiIs seeking
a syneigy lelveen hunan and lechnoIogicaIIy ad3
vanced faclois. Yel, sone lheoiisls peisisl, in his viev,
in cIaining lhal piogiess can le achieved ly naking a
80((&%# 0-, (2,,#- 428* ./ &-.+/,27# (27" -#' 7/-3
cepls and lechnoIogy. He concIudes lhal if lheie is no
ieaI undeislanding of hov lhis lype of vai shouId le
foughl, lhen il is inpossilIe lo veilaIize and foinu3
Iale aIgoiilhns foi conducling nelvoik-cenliic vais.
The scienlihc undeislanding nusl prcccdc (/1.'0+#
deveIopnenl and piocuienenl decisions.
32

>1.#+ ."# .+0-(&.&/- ./ ."# -#' 8/,#6 /1 ."# 0+8#,
foices, ve have found ouiseIves al lhe leginning of
lhe jouiney, lecause lolh lhe sliucluie and lhe con3
posilion of lhe niIilaiy foinalions have changed
consideialIy (and ccn|inuc |c cnangc).
33
>-, '"0.
aloul infoinalion conpaliliIily` Il legins vilh lhe
unihed infoinalion space (slandaid cIassihcalions,
vocaluIaiies and dalalases of nodeIs, lheii laclicaI
and lechnicaI peifoinance chaiacleiislics and so on),
47
vhose ciealion in Russia piogiesses al a pace vhich
iequiies consideialIe acceIeialion. And lhe silualion
vilh infoinalion liansfeialiIily is fai fion lhe ideaI
aIlogelhei, given oui nind-loggIing diveisily of aulo3
80.#, (5(.#8( 0-, 8#0-( /1 ,0.0 .+0-(1#+ '"&7" '#+#
designed using diffeienl fundanenlaI, design, and
soflvaie piincipIes.
34
ResoIving such issues and naking appiopiiale
iehnenenls vheie needed aIso, as uienok sliessed,
has inpIicalions foi foice sliucluie and deveIopnenl.
Thus, vhiIe lhe nev Iook is naiked ly ils svilch
fion lhe syslen il dispIaced, il is nol yel in ils hnaI
foin: il viII conlinue lo change in iesponse lo lhe de3
nands of nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie nodeIs and hov
lhis is achieved piaclicaIIy and in a vay lhal suils Rus3
sian iequiienenls.
2%(0.(%A"*$E'V$"'0.D
Consideiing lhe oveiaII concepluaI lasis of
Seidyukovs iefoin ievoIving aiound iesliucluiing
and focusing on peinanenl ieadiness liigades vilh
enhanced conlal capaliIily and conlal ieadiness, il
is voilh liacing lhe foinalive inleIIecluaI inuences
lhal Ied lo adopling and pIanning lhe nev Iook. Of
couise, liigades veie nol nev as such in lhe Rus3
sian niIilaiy expeiience. They veie, aflei aII, acliveIy
uliIized in nechanized foinalions duiing lhe Cieal
Ialiiolic Wai, and, noie iecenlIy, Soviel and Russian
,#1#-(# 8&-&(.#+( "0, 7#+.0&-65 ./5#, '&." ."# &,#0
of eilhei enhancing lhe nunlei of liigades oi even
liansilioning noie fuIIy lo a liigade-lased syslen. In
Oclolei 199O, Defense Minislei Dniliy Yazov signed
a diafl iefoin piogian envisaging such a liansilion,
IaveI Ciachev Ialei pIanned lo inciease lhe nunlei
48
of liigades in lhe lalIe of oiganizalion and equip3
nenl (TOL) and he, as veII as Igoi Seigeyev and Sei3
gei Ivanov, consideied foining opeialionaI-slialegic
connands. NonelheIess, lhe nosl sliiking fealuie of
Seidyukovs iefoins is lhe exlenl lo vhich lhey diav
upon an anaIysis of foieign niIilaiy expeiience.
In ApiiI 2OO4, lhe Ioieign and Defense IoIicy
CounciI (SVOI) in Moscov pulIished an inpoilanl
7O-page sludy. CoIoneI (Reliied) VilaIiy ShIykov
headed lhe lean of viileis, incIuding AIexei Ailalov,
AIexandei eIkin, Majoi-CeneiaI (Reliied) VIadinii
Dvoikin, Seigei Kaiaganov, MikhaiI Khodoienok,
and Andiei Kokoshin.
35
!"# +#*/+.9 Vcqcnncqc s|rci|c|-
s|tc i ncdcrinza|siqa Vccruzncnnq|n si| russiq (The De3
veIopnenl and Modeinizalion of lhe Russian Ained
Ioices), idenlihed 15 liails piesenl in lhe voiIds Iead3
ing niIilaiies, lhough alsenl fion lhe Russian ained
foices, and ieconnended dianalicaIIy ieducing lhe
ofhcei coips, aloIishing vaiianl ofhceis, liaining
piofessionaI NCOs, inlioducing niIilaiy poIice, and a
nunlei of olhei neasuies (Ialei fealuiing in Seidyu3
kovs iefoin).
36
This vas iefeiied lo in a Iellei fion Seidyukov lo
Seigei Kaiaganov, lhe Chaiinan of SVOI, on Seplen3
lei 3O, 2OO9:
!"# &((2#( '"&7" 0+# +0&(#, &- ."# +#*/+. 0+# &8*/+3
lanl duiing lhe peiiod of piofound iefoins in lhe
Russian Iedeialion ained foices. In lhe piocess of lhe
liansilion lo lhe nev nodeI of lhe Russian Iedeialion
ained foices, lhe Russian defense ninisliy is currcn||q
inp|cncn|ing |nc ncs| inpcr|an| ncasurcs unicn arc prc-
pcscd in |nc rcpcr|, inc|uding |nc |ransi|icn |c |nc ncu TO|
and cs|ao|isnncn| cf |nc ni|i|arq fcrna|icns, cp|iniza|icn
cf |nc ccnnand and ccn|rc| ocdics, ccnprcncnsitc |ccnnc-
|cgica| rcarnancn| cf |nc |rccps (fcrccs), inprctcncn| cf
49
|nc sqs|cn cf s|afjng, cp|iniza|icn cf |nc sqs|cn cf ni|i|arq
cduca|icn, inprctcncn| cf |nc sqs|cn cf ncoi|iza|icn p|an-
ning and c|ncr ncasurcs.
37
Seidyukovs Iellei aIso pionised lhal lhe defense
ninisliy pIanned lo invoIve SVOI expeils in fuluie
deveIopnenl and nodeinizalion of lhe Russian niIi3
laiy in lhe lioadei, consuIlalive inleiaclion vilhin
lhe fianevoik of lhe aclivilies of lhe IulIic Coun3
ciI of lhe Russian Iedeialion defense ninisliy.
38
In
ApiiI 2O1O, vhiIe allenpling lo expIain vhy lhe de3
1#-(# 8&-&(.+5 "0, (2(*#-,#, &.( *60-( ./ &-.+/,27# 0
niIilaiy poIice sliucluie, Seidyukov inleieslingIy said
lhal addilionaI line vas iequiied lo sludy foieign
expeiience.
39
Il is inpoilanl lo enphasize, hovevei, lhal lheie
vas and is no Russian effoil lo copy veslein expe3
iience. AIlhough lhis anaIysis is pIaying a foinalive
ioIe in lhe cuiienl iefoin, il is highIy unIikeIy lhal lhe
Russian ained foices viII evei sinpIy lecone a copy
of any veslein nodeI. AIlhough lhe iepoil cannol le
seen as iepiesenling soIe juslihcalion foi aspecls of lhe
iefoin concepl, il is neveilheIess possilIe lo discein
nany of ils fealuies and idenlify lolh lhe slienglh and
veakness of lhe nev Iook. Ioi nany veslein olseiv3
eis, lhe concepluaI appioach invoIved in Seidyukovs
iefoin nakes sense pieciseIy lecause il does diav
upon veslein expeiience. As lhe iefoin concepl vas
appIied, lhe defense ninisliy and CeneiaI Slaff dis3
coveied veaknesses oi unfoieseen piolIens iequii3
ing coiieclion oi ievision lo lhe oiiginaI concepl.
Alsenl fion lhe oiiginaI decIaialoiy concepl, foi in3
slance, vas lhe inlenlion iecenlIy oulIined ly lhe Cen3
eiaI Slaff, lo iepIace lhe exisling six niIilaiy disliicls
vilh foui enIaiged opeialionaI-slialegic connands
(ly Decenlei 1, 2O1O).
5O
The peifoinance of lhe liigades, foi inslance, dui3
ing opeialionaI-slialegic exeicises in 2OO9 (Kavkaz,
Ladoga, and Zapad 2OO9) ieveaIed lhal lhey veie
heavy and cunleisone, consequenlIy laking Iongei
lhan anlicipaled lo nove ovei Iaige dislances. Such
liigades, ielaining lhe hiepovei of a division and in
nany cases as nuch heavy ailiIIeiy, seened noie Iike
snaII divisions. This one size hls aII appioach vas
unsuslainalIe. Senioi connandeis pulIicIy adnilled
lhal iecaIcuIalion vas iequiied. NolalIy, lhe CINC
of lhe Russian giound foices, CoIoneI-CeneiaI AIek3
sandi Ioslnikov, appoinled in }anuaiy 2O1O, slaled
lhal fuilhei iehnenenls veie needed in oidei lo nake
lhe foices noie exilIe and noliIe. He pailicuIaiIy
ieconnended lhal inslead of nainlaining such heavy
liigades, lhiee lypes veie iequiied: heavy, nuIliioIe,
and Iighl.
4O
Ioslnikov vas effecliveIy saying lhal a key
fealuie of lhe iefoin, iapidIy conducled lhioughoul
2OO9, nov iequiied iehnenenl, oi addilionaI iefoin.
A/+ 7+&.&7( /1 ."&( +#1/+89 ."&( 0**#0+#, ./ 0,8&. &-0,3
equale pIanning. Yel, lhe opposile is piolalIy noie
accuiale: il shoved lhal lhe pIanneis veie inpIenenl3
ing, assessing, ie-evaIualing, discussing, and vheie
necessaiy naking coiieclions, even if lhal invoIved
aIleiing key concepls. In olhei voids, paiadoxicaIIy,
il conhins lhal a ieaI and syslenic iefoin is in piog3
iess vilh nislakes leing nade, adjuslnenls denand3
ed, and nev chaIIenges encounleied. Ioslnikov, in
facl, desciiled lhe liigades as Iess lhan peifecl, and
said lhal lhe defense ninisliy vas acliveIy voiking
lo coiiecl nislakes. He said lhe liigades veie ladIy
equipped (aflei aII, al lhe slail of lhe iefoin, lheie vas
onIy 1O peicenl nodein veapons and equipnenl in
lhe TOL) and chaiacleiized ieadiness IeveIs as Iov.
41

Ioslnikov vas nol isoIaled in hoIding such vievs, as
51
an inleiviev ly lhe Depuly Defense Minislei foi Ai3
nanenl, VIadinii Iopovkin, conhined. On Ieliu3
aiy 2O, 2O1O, Iopovkin loId ||nc Mcs|tq ."0. ."# -#'
liigade sliucluie had luined oul lo le cunleisone,
lhey aie aII heavy. He added lhal Iighl liigades vilh
Iighl equipnenl veie needed in oidei lo coiiecl lhis
inlaIance. In luin, lhis vouId denand a diveise ap3
pioach lovaid liaining, adopling nev conlal liain3
ing nodeIs, and nighl aIso add lo lhe piocuienenl
needs of lhe liigades.
42

Such caIIs lo fuilhei hne lune lhe liigade sliucluie
veie aIso piesenl in voik ly highIy iespecled niIi3
laiy lheoiisls such as Majoi-CeneiaI (Reliied) Ivan
Voiolyev, co-viiling in Vcqcnnaqa Mqs|, (aIong vilh
CoIoneI VaIeiiy KiseIev) in lhe spiing of 2O1O, advo3
caling lhiee liigade lypes lased on enhancing lheii
naneuveialiIily. The co-aulhoied ailicIe legan vilh
a liief oveiviev of liigade deveIopnenl in lhe U.S.
ained foices and lhen luined lo lhe hisloiy of Soviel
liigades duiing lhe Cieal Ialiiolic Wai. Il highIighl3
ed lhe facl lhal dehciencies vilhin lhe TOL can iesuIl
in niIilaiy defeal and noled in passing lhe hve TOL
ieoiganizalions duiing lhe hisl 6 nonlhs of lhe Cieal
Ialiiolic Wai. The ailicIe lhen ieconnended adopl3
ing lhiee lypes of liigade (heavy, nediun, and Iighl)
depending on lhe opeialionaI axis.
43
!"#5 06(/ (.+#((#,
lhal lhe iesliucluiing of lhe TOL vas no panacea, and
lhe effecliveness of lhese liigades vouId depend on
seveiaI faclois:
Much viII depend on lechnicaI oulhlling, lhe quaIily
and conlal effecliveness of ains and niIilaiy cquip-
ncn|, liigade nanning, lhe peisonneIs piohciency
and noiaI-psychoIogicaI and conlal quaIilies, na3
leiieI suppoil, and alove aII lhe cfjccrs prcfcssicna|
|raining, vhich cannol le inpioved oveinighl. iigade
52
enpIoynenl viII le effeclive vhen lhey aie liained
lo pieenpl lhe eneny, deIivei suipiise allacks, and
execule svifl naneuveis, and vhen lhey have high
pioleclion and suivivaliIily.
44
Il is aIso voilh highIighling in passing lhe vay in
vhich lhe aulhois uliIized lhe Iegacy of WoiId Wai II
as a lasis lo advocale changing lhe TOL ialhei lhan
ielaining lhe pie-exisling sliucluies. The expeiience
gained duiing lhe vai, in lheii viev, had exposed lhe
inadequacies of lhe TOL and conpeIIed ils dispIace3
nenl in oidei lo neel nev iequiienenls. Thus, Vo3
iolyev and KiseIev cenleied lheii aigunenl on lhe
oflen unifying Iegacy of lhe Cieal Ialiiolic Wai and
sinuIlaneousIy advocaled iesliucluiing lhe TOL.
45
CCS Makaiov has aIieady Ianenled lhe Iov quaI3
ily of liigade connandeis, saying lhal nany of lhose
appoinled in 2OO9 have leen sacked lecause lhey veie
sinpIy nol up lo lhe lask. If Voiolyev and KiseIevs
nodeI veie adopled, vhich vouId ceilainIy conliil3
ule lo noliIily and naneuveialiIily, il vouId aclu3
aIIy iesuIl in lhe lasic luiIding lIock of lhe nev Iook
leconing lhe oa||a|icn ialhei lhan lhe liigade. Con3
sequenlIy, lhe liaining luiden vouId expose deepei
piolIens, since hnding suilalIe liigade connandeis
is cIeaiIy pioving difhcuIl.
As lhe iefoin concepl is ieconcepluaIized, noving
fion a unifoin liigade size lovaids peihaps lhiee
lasic lypes and deleinining lheii nission lype and
opeialionaI uliIily, il is equaIIy possilIe lhal lhe cIain
iegaiding peinanenl ieadiness liigades nay aIso
iequiie adjuslnenl. The IikeIihood is lhal in fuluie
lheie viII le a slialihed appioach lo ieadiness IeveIs
on diffeiing slialegic axes. LquaIIy, lhese sliucluies
need lo le oplinized lo suil lhe deveIopnenl and
53
adoplion of nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie capaliIilies, and
as lhis is inlioduced and expeiience is gained, il nay
veII eIicil fuilhei adjuslnenls. In shoil, having suc3
cessfuIIy alandoned lhe nass noliIizalion piincipIe,
jellisoning cadie unils, and foining lhe nev liigade-
lased sliucluie, lhe Ieadeiship is nov ievieving lhe
iefoin concepl ilseIf in oidei lo coiiecl veaknesses
discoveied aflei assessing lhese nev sliucluies. The
linescaIe lo conpIele lhis piocess is IikeIy lo le le3
lveen 2O12 lo 2O16, vhiIe noie signihcanl chaIIenges
Iie ahead in ieIalion lo deveIoping lhe ofhcei coips,
educaling and liaining liigade connandeis, foining
piofessionaI NCOs and nodeinizing lhe TOL. Despile
lhe ofhciaIIy decIaied laigel of ieaching a 7O:3O ialio
of nodein equipnenl and veapons ly 2O2O, piogiess
lo dale has pioved nuch sIovei lhan expecled. Ralhei
lhan lhe 9-11 peicenl nodeinizalion pei annun, lhe
iale appeais lo le cIosei lo 2 peicenl. Hov viII lhis
nisnalch le coiiecled` WiII lhe defense ninisliy opl
foi noie upgiades` WiII lheie le a giealei appelile
foi foieign piocuienenl` Can lhe piolIens facing lhe
Russian defense indusliy le oveicone`
AnaIyzing and assessing foieign niIilaiy expeii3
ence and caIilialing lhese fealuies inlo iefoin pIan3
ning, hovevei, viII onIy lake Russian defense iefoin
so fai. They nay undeisland, oflen quile lhoioughIy,
lhe piincipIes invoIved, lul vilhoul piaclicaI expeii3
ence lhey viII nol appieciale vhy il voiks oi exaclIy
hov. The iefoin piocesses couId le cul shoil oi faciIi3
laled ly asking foi foieign defense iefoin assislance,
even lhough such a slep is polenliaIIy conlioveisiaI,
especiaIIy if lhal assislance veie lo le piovided ly
NATO oi AIIiance nenleis, il is nonelheIess possilIe
al Ieasl in lheoiy, and couId foin pail of inlensihed
liusl luiIding neasuies.
54
23!!-45 Q-7-=42R ?;6=2-58 IJKJ<
W!=24=8O-6 ?-!6;5586=X
The Iong availed nev Russian niIilaiy docliine,
hisl nooled ly lhe lhen Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin in
lhe spiing of 2OO5 and inlended lo iepIace ils pievi3
ous veision in 2OOO, vas hnaIIy signed ly Iiesidenl
Medvedev on Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O.
46
AIlhough veslein
and Russian anaIysls focused lheii specuIalion on lhe
-276#0+ #6#8#-.( /1 ."# ,/7.+&-#9 ."#+# '0( -/ #)*6&7&.
nove lovaid Ioveiing lhe nucIeai lhieshoId, lhough
as nany noled lheie can le no ceilainly on lhe issue
(&-7# 12+."#+ ,#.0&6 /- ."# -276#0+ */(.2+# '0( 7/-3
lained a cIassihed addendun (Tnc |cunda|icns cf S|a|c
Pc|icq in |nc Arca cf Nuc|car Dc|crrcncc |c 2020). The
niIilaiy docliine, laclicaIIy ieIeased duiing lhe ongo3
ing START negolialions and sandviched lelveen lhe
pulIicalion of lhe U.S. Quadrcnnia| Dcfcnsc Rcticu 0-,
lhe 46lh Munich Secuiily Confeience, appeaied laI3
anced, encapsuIaling a conpionise lelveen havks
and doves and ieaIIy offeiing sonelhing in ils lexl foi
eveiyone, avoiding leing eilhei loo piovocalive oi
conlioveisiaI. LillIe in ils conlenl hlled vilh lhe inage
of a iesuigenl Russia.
47

NonelheIess, as nany Russian anaIysls and con3
nenlalois noled, lhe docliine is ienaikalIe foi a
nunlei of Iess posilive ieasons. Iiisl, and peihaps
nosl sliiking, il leais no iesenlIance lo lhe nev Iook
ained foices. In facl, il is quile lhe opposile since il
is aInosl enliieIy diveigenl fion lhe acluaI ongoing
niIilaiy iefoin.
48
The gap lelveen ofhciaI lheoiy and
piaclice is lheiefoie slaggeiing ly any ialionaI nea3
suienenl. Moieovei, lhe docliine occasionaIIy conlia3
dicls lhe May 2OO9 Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq (NSS) and
55
even conlains seIf-conliadicloiy slalenenls, offeiing
6&..6# 760+&.5 /- ."# -0.2+# /1 '0+10+# /+ ."+#0.( ."0.
lhe ained foices shouId le piepaied lo neel. Iails
of ils conlenl sinpIy nake no sense vhalsoevei. One
#)08*6# /1 ."&( 7/-12(#, 0**+/07"9 '"&7" #)*/(#( ."#
dicholony lelveen lhe docliine and Seidyukovs niI3
ilaiy iefoin, can le denonslialed ly lhe Iallei having
aloIished lhe nass noliIizalion piincipIe as a iesuIl of
lhe oiganizalionaI liansfoinalion in lhe ained foices
in 2OO9, vhiIe lhe foinei docunenl nenlions noli3
Iize oi noliIizalion noie lhan 5O lines. The 2OOO
docliine specihed lhe ioIe of lhe CeneiaI Slaff in leins
of connand and conlioI, aIso iefeiiing lo lhe funclion
of lhe defense ninisliy and lhe niIilaiy disliicls. AII
lhis has leen jellisoned in lhe nev docliine and in ils
pIace lheie is a vacuun. The nev docliine noles lhe
polenliaI hazaid posed ly infoinalion vaifaie and
."# -##, 1/+ ."# (.0.# ./ */((#(( ."# 8#0-( ./ 7/-,27.
such opeialions, yel infoinalion vaifaie is IaigeIy
ignoied in lhe docliine, vhiIe ils onIy counleipail
(Tnc |nfcrna|icn Sccuri|q Dcc|rinc, 2OOO) nov appeais
sonevhal daled. The laIance, if lhis vas vhal vas
inlended on lhe pail of lhose diafling lhe docliine, is
&- +#06&.5 0 (#0 /1 7/-12(&/-9 &- '"&7" ."# 8&6&.0+5 0+#
lossed lo and fio and any sense of slialegy is Iefl heIp3
IessIy sinking. Long-lein liends, cIeai guidance, oi
nuanced inleipielalion in lhis conlexl nusl le liealed
cauliousIy and oflen vilh nuIlipIe caveals.
The sense of slialegic disconnecl conlained in lhe
nev niIilaiy docliine is peihaps lellei undeislood ly
exanining ceilain fealuies of ils conlenl coupIed vilh
hov lhe docunenl vas foinuIaled, noling vhich ac3
lois veie invoIved, and hnaIIy Iinking lhe docliine lo
lhe acluaI condilion of lhe convenlionaI ained foices.
56
Thc 5carch fnr thc "Ncw:" DcnIng "Dangcrs" and
W=B#%$",DX
The niIilaiy docliine lakes accounl of ils pievi3
ous 2OOO veision as veII as olhei slialegic pIanning
docunenls (Ccnccp| fcr |nc |cng-Tcrn Scciccccncnic
Dctc|cpncn| cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn fcr |nc Pcricd
|nrcugn 20209 Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq |nrcugn 20209
and ieIevanl piovisions of lhe 2OO8 Russian |crcign
Pc|icq Ccnccp| 0-, ."# Russian |cdcra|icn Mari|inc Dcc-
|rinc fcr |nc Pcricd |nrcugn 2020). In geneiaI leins, lhe
docliine appeaied loo IooseIy consliucled, Iacking
specihcily. This pionpled CoIoneI-CeneiaI (Reliied)
Leonid Ivashov lo olseive: This docliine can le used
in niIilaiy acadenies foi seninais on lhe suljecl of
hov lo conpiIe such docunenls, lul lhis docliine has
IillIe lo do vilh Russian ieaIily.
49
Hovevei, lhe doc3
liine conlained IillIe lhal vas fundanenlaIIy nev,
lhough lheie veie shifls, lexl Iefl unchanged since lhe
2OOO veision, and aspecls lhal faiIed lo connecl vilh
changes in lhe slialegic enviionnenl since 2OOO.
5O
Un3
Iike lhe 2OOO docliine, lhe nev niIilaiy docliine nakes
a ciuciaI dislinclion lelveen cpasncs|i (dangeis) and
ugrczq (lhieals) facing Russia. This aIIovs Moscov lo
conlinue lo designale NATO enIaigenenl, as opposed
./ ."# #)&(.#-7# /1 ."# >66&0-7# pcr sc, as a dangei, ialh3
ei lhan an inninenl lhieal. In so doing, hovevei, and
ly pIacing lhis as lhe piinaiy dangei, Moscov has
signaIed lhal lhe pieviousIy anli-veslein paiadign
evoIving vilhin ils docliinaI lhinking peisisls, aIleil
in a sIighlIy noie nuled nannei.
51
AIIoving foi lhe
innovalion of dislinguishing lhe diffeience lelveen
dangeis and lhieals, as veII as lhe geneiaI Iess specihc
fianing of Ianguage iegaiding lhe Iallei, il is voilh
noling lhe peiceplion of lhe Russian secuiily eIile lhal
lhe dangeis facing lhe slale have giovn.
57
To legin vilh, lhe docliine dehnes hov lhese leins
aie used: a niIilaiy dangei is a slale of inleislale oi
inliaslale ieIalions chaiacleiized ly an aggiegale of
107./+( ."0. 70-9 2-,#+ 7#+.0&- 7/-,&.&/-(9 6#0, ./ ."#
eneigence of a niIilaiy lhieal. Wheieas a niIilaiy
lhieal is:
0 (.0.# /1 &-.#+(.0.# /+ &-.+0(.0.# +#60.&/-(9 7"0+07.#+3
ized ly lhe ieaI possiliIily of lhe eneigence of a niIi3
laiy conicl lelveen opposing sides, a high degiee of
ieadiness of sone slale (gioup of slales) oi sepaialisl
(leiioiisl) oiganizalions foi lhe use of niIilaiy foices
(vioIence vilh lhe use of veaponiy).
52

In olhei voids, in ceilain silualions lhe foinei
nay evoIve inlo lhe Iallei noie seiious scenaiio.
?$.&%#, $.+ =B#%$",D
These dangeis aie deIinealed inlo 11 poinls. IoIe
posilion, as aIieady noled, is given lo NATO (in
lhe 2OOO docliine nol specihed, onIy iefeiied lo as a
lIoc), especiaIIy lhe ain of assigning gIolaI func3
lions lo lhe AIIiance, lolh vioIaling inleinalionaI Iav
and noving ieIenlIessIy lovaids Russias loideis ly
ils expansion, allenpls lo deslaliIize individuaI slales
oi iegions, oi undeinine slialegic slaliIily, depIoy3
nenl oi luiId-up of foieign lioops on lhe leiiiloiies
oi valeis of slales conliguous vilh Russia and ils aI3
Iies, ciealing and pIanning lo depIoy slialegic nissiIe
defense syslens lo undeinine gIolaI slaliIily and
nucIeai paiily, niIilaiizing oulei-space and lhe de3
pIoynenl of slialegic non-nucIeai piecision veapon
syslens, leiiiloiiaI cIains on Russia oi ils aIIies and
inleifeience in lheii inleinaI affaiis, pioIifeialion of
veapons of nasss desliuclion (WMD), nissiIes, and
ieIaled lechnoIogy, and lhe inciease in nucIeai veap3
58
on slales, individuaI slales vioIaling inleinalionaI ac3
coids and nonconpIiance vilh exisling liealies, lhe
use of niIilaiy foice cIose lo Russia in vioIalion of lhe
Uniled Nalions (UN) Chailei oi olhei noins of in3
leinalionaI Iav, lhe eneigence of ained conicl and
possilIe escaIalion of such conicls on lhe leiiiloiies
of slales cIose lo Russia and ils aIIies, lhe spiead of
inleinalionaI leiioiisn, and lhe eneigence inleifailh
lension, inleinalionaI ained iadicaI gioups in aieas
adjacenl lo Russian loideis and lhose of ils aIIies, and
lhe giovlh of sepaialisn and ieIigious exlienisn in
vaiious pails of lhe voiId. InleinaI dangeis slen fion
effoils lo conpeI change lo lhe conslilulion, undei3
nine lhe soveieignly, unily, and leiiiloiiaI inlegiily
of lhe slale, and disiupl lhe funclioning of lhe oigans
/1 (.0.# */'#+9 (.0.# 0-, 8&6&.0+5 107&6&.&#(9 0-, ."#
infoinalion infiasliucluie of Russia (Seclion II.8.a-k,
9.a-c).
53
The pioIifeialion of WMD and lhe inciease in
lhe nunlei of slales vilh nucIeai veapons as veII as
inleinalionaI leiioiisn, accoiding lo lhe niIilaiy doc3
liine, paIe in conpaiison vilh NATO.
As noled, lhe iefeience lo NATO is nol nev. Whal
&( -#' &( ."# '05 &. &( *+#(#-.#, 8/+# #)07.65 0( 0
dangei, vhich piolalIy aIso ieecls dissalisfaclion
vilh lhe Iack of veslein inleiesl lo dale in Medve3
devs Luiopean secuiily aichilecluie inilialive. The
second seens lo le an inseilion lhal faiIs lo nake cIeai
lo vhal il nighl iefei, vhiIe lhe nexl appeais a noie
neluIous vaiianl on a siniIai slalenenl in lhe pievi3
ous docliine. An addilionaI nev dangei appeais lo
ieIale nol onIy lo aIIislic MissiIe Defense (MD) lul
aIso olIiqueIy lo U.S. gIolaI sliike pIanning. Refei3
ence lo leiiiloiiaI cIains againsl Russia has leen con3
,#-(#, &- ."# -#' ,/7.+&-#9 (&-7# ."# /6, 1/+8260 "0,
an addilionaI eIenenl conceining a nuIlipoIai voiId.
The nexl lvo dangeis veie alsenl in lhe oId docliine:
59
WMD pioIifeialion and ieIaled lechnoIogy and lhe
vioIalion of inleinalionaI liealies and agieenenls.
The hisl of lhese couId le expIained ly iefeience lo
Noilh Koiea and possilIy Iian, vhiIe lhe Iallei seens
Iinked lo lhe aliogalion of lhe 1972 AM (anlilaIIislic
nissiIe) Tiealy and lhe coIIapse of lhe ConvenlionaI
Ioices in Luiope (CIL) Tiealy. The dangei posed ly
lhe use of niIilaiy foice neai Russia in vioIalion of lhe
UN Chailei foIIovs a siniIai foinuIa used in lhe oId
docliine. IinaIIy, lhe iefeiences lo inleifailh lension
and inleinalionaI ained iadicaI gioups nusl suieIy
have Afghanislan in nind. InleinaI dangeis ieIale lo
sepaialisn and leiioiisn nainIy in lhe Noilh Cauca3
sus, as veII as possilIe allenpls lo peneliale infoina3
lion secuiily.
!"# 80&- 8&6&.0+5 ."+#0.( (.#8 1+/8 0 ,+0(.&7 ,#3
leiioialion in lhe (inleislale) niIilaiy-poIilicaI silua3
lion iesuIling in escaIalion lo lhe use of niIilaiy foice,
inpeding lhe funclioning of connand and conlioI
syslens in lhe counliy, disiupling lhe funclioning of
lhe Slialegic Rockel Ioices, nissiIe eaiIy vaining sys3
lens, space-lased noniloiing syslens, nucIeai veap3
ons sloiage faciIilies, and olhei polenliaIIy hazaidous
faciIilies, foining and liaining iIIegaI ained foina3
lions on Russian leiiiloiy oi on lhe leiiiloiy of ils aI3
Iies oi conliguous slale, denonslialions of niIilaiy
foice duiing niIilaiy exeicises on lhe leiiiloiies of
slales conliguous vilh Russia, and, hnaIIy, incieased
07.&%&.5 /- ."# *0+. /1 0+8#, 1/+7#( /1 &-,&%&,206 (.0.#(
oi gioup of slales invoIving pailiaI oi conpIele noli3
Iizalion and lhe liansilioning of lhe slales oigans of
(.0.# 0-, 7/880-, 0-, 7/-.+/6 ./ '0+.&8# 7/-,&.&/-(
(Seclion II.1O.a-e).
54
The hisl of lhese lhieals does nol appeai in lhe 2OOO
,/7.+&-#9 '"&6# ."# (#7/-, 1/66/'( ."# #0+6&#+ 1/+8260
6O
aInosl veilalin. The lhiid lhieal, lhough piesenl in
lhe oId docliine, seens lo signaI concein lhal an ene3
ny nay liy lo eslalIish and liain iIIegaI ained foina3
lions on Russian leiiiloiy. Hovevei, lhe fouilh and
hflh lhieals aie nev and, in leins of lhe Iallei, vhiIe
lhe docliine does nol expIicilIy nenlion China, vhich
is laloo in Russian secuiily docunenls, il nighl ieecl
gioving concein in Moscov ovei niIilaiy exeicises
conducled ly lhe IeopIes Lileialion Ainy (ILA),
lhal appeai lo have ieheaised fuluie Chinese niIilaiy
inleivenlion in Russia and CenliaI Asia.
55
!"2(9 0( ."#
niIilaiy docliine oulIines lhe dangeis and lhieals fac3
ing lhe Russian slale, lhese aie oflen conliadicloiy,
give iise lo queslions conceining lheii oidei of in3
poilance, counleinand olhei slialegic pIanning docu3
8#-.( (27" 0( ."# |crcign Pc|icq Ccnccp| 2008 /+ ."#
NSS 2009, and aie so IooseIy fianed as lo appeai nel3
uIous. NATO is iepiesenled as a dangei and ils gIolaI
12-7.&/-( ,#7+&#,9 '"&6# ."# (08# ,/7.+&-# 0,%/70.#(
a nuch hinei veision of AilicIe 5 in ieIalion lo lhe
Moscov-Ied CoIIeclive Secuiily Tiealy Oiganizalion
(CSTO) and, in ils Iisl of nuIliIaleiaI oiganizalions
vilh vhich lo puisue coopeialion, nenlions NATO
(aIleil in Iasl pIace aflei lhe CSTO, ConnonveaIlh
of Independenl Slales |CISj, Oiganizalion foi Secuiily
and Coopeialion in Luiope |OSCLj, Shanghai Coop3
eialion Oiganizalion |SCOj and lhe Luiopean Union
|LUj) (Seclion III.19.e).
56
Lcngthy GcstatInn PcrInd: InghtIng, MI!Itary
2%Y0#G $.+ ;"B%# @$("0#,D
The leiioiisl allacks on Nev Yoik and Washinglon
on Seplenlei 11, 2OO1 (9/11), foIIoved ly lhe gIolaI
vai on leiioiisn, and inleivenlion in Afghanislan
and Iiaq, conlined vilh lhe piogiess of lhe second
61
Chechen vai and inslances of doneslic leiioiisn in
Russia such as lhe Noid Osl lhealei allack in Moscov
in Oclolei 2OO2 oi lhe esIan schooI siege in Seplenlei
2OO4 appeaied lo necessilale ievision of lhe niIilaiy
docliine passed in 2OOO. Adjuslnenl lo lhe posl-9/11
secuiily enviionnenl, enhanced foi a line ly Mos3
covs viIIingness lo puisue inleinalionaI counleilei3
ioiisl coopeialion, hnaIIy iesuIled in lhe lhen Iiesi3
denl VIadinii Iulin oideiing a nev niIilaiy docliine
in }une 2OO5. Thal lhe geslalion peiiod foi lhis nev
docliine vas so Iong, aInosl 5 yeais, iequiies sone
expIanalion. In seeking lhal luieaucialic insighl, il is
necessaiy lo sciulinize, as fai as possilIe, fealuies of
lhe diafling piocess lo undeisland hov lhe laIance
+#*+#(#-.#, &- ."# -#' ,/7.+&-# '0( 07"&#%#, 0-,
vheie lhe sensilivilies veie Iocaled.
On }anuaiy 2O, 2OO7, a consuIlalive confeience vas
heId in Moscov lo exanine lhe issue of foinuIaling a
nev niIilaiy docliine. Those allending lhe confeience
veie iepiesenlalive of lhe lodies vilh vesled inleiesls
in lhe niIilaiy docliine: lhe piesidenliaI slaff, govein3
nenl, Duna, Iedeialion CounciI, Secuiily CounciI,
Minisliy of Defense, Inleiioi Minisliy, Lneigencies
Minisliy, lhe IedeiaI Secuiily Seivice, IedeiaI Iiolec3
lion Seivice, Acadeny of Sciences, and Acadeny of
MiIilaiy Sciences. In }anuaiy 2OO8, lhe Acadeny of
MiIilaiy Sciences heId an addilionaI confeience lhal
aIso paid cIose allenlion lo such issues. In Decenlei
2OO8, noie foinaI pIans foi a nev niIilaiy docliine
veie announced. Duiing a neeling of lhe Russian
Secuiily CounciI a voiking gioup vas foined con3
sisling of deIegales fion slale lodies and civiIian
and niIilaiy acadenic expeils and Ied ly lhe Depuly
Secielaiy of lhe Secuiily CounciI, Ainy-CeneiaI Yuii
aIuyevsky (foinei Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff). CoIo3
neI-CeneiaI AnaloIiy Nogovilsyn headed lhe defense
62
ninisliy voiking gioup. Ainy-CeneiaI Makhnul
Caieev, Iiesidenl of lhe Acadeny of MiIilaiy Sciences
and one of lhe counliys foienosl niIilaiy lheoiisls,
aIso pIayed a key ioIe in diafling lhe docliine. Thus,
lhe nosl signihcanl pIayeis Ieading lhe piocess shaied
a niIilaiy lackgiound and piolalIy lioughl niIilaiy
inleiesls lo lhe foie. Whal is ienaikalIe is lhal lhe
iepoiling on lhe diafling in 2OO7-O8 leais a sliiking
iesenlIance lo lhe hnaI conlenl of lhe 2O1O niIilaiy
docliine.
57
A key papei in lhe }anuaiy 2OO7 confeience en3
lilIed DocliinaI Vievs of NATO on lhe Naluie of
Wais and on Secuiily piesenled ly an unnaned
Main InleIIigence Diiecloiale (CRU) ofhcei, iepoil3
edIy sliessed lhe issue of NATO expansion. Anolhei
papei, The RoIe and IIace of Slialegic NucIeai Ains
in Russias MiIilaiy Docliine, asseiled lhal lhe secu3
iily of lhe Russian slale is 90 pcrccn| ,#*#-,#-. 2*/-
nucIeai deleiience. CoIoneI-CeneiaI AIeksandi Ruk3
shin, lhe lhen Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaffs Main Op3
eialions Diiecloiale, coveied lhe oiganizalionaI de3
veIopnenl and use of Russias ained foices. Iapeis
veie given in oidei of inpoilance, vilh aii and space
defense pIaced alove navaI aspecls of docliine. Ia3
peis on inleinalionaI leiioiisn veie lheiefoie given
6#(( *+&/+&.59 &- *0+. (&-7# ."# 0+8#, 1/+7#( (0' ."&(
as a funclion of lhe inleiioi ninisliy and inleIIigence
(#+%&7#(9 '"&6# 0 *0*#+ /- 8&6&.0+5 #,270.&/- 10&6#,
lo ieach lhe lop 1O. Yel, aIuyevsky enphasized lhal
."# 80&- ."+#0. '0( "&,,#- &- ."# 107. ."0. ."# 7/-3
ducl of hosliIe infoinalion aclivily againsl Russia has
inconnensuialeIy giovn, lhe inilialoi of such acliv3
ily appeaied cIeai lo aII niIilaiy chiefs assenlIed in
lhe haII. CiilicaIIy, foIIoving lhe confeience, Majoi-
CeneiaI (Reliied) VIadinii eIous, Iiofessoi in lhe
Acadeny of MiIilaiy Sciences, said lhal he sav fev
63
diffeiences lelveen lhe niIilaiy docliine in 2OOO and
lhal leing voiked oul:
Theie vas no niIilaiy docliine in Soviel lines, lul
lheie vas a poveifuI ainy. The oiganizalionaI voik
of lhe lop vas ained al incieasing lhe piofessionaI ca3
paliIilies of lhe ained foices. Nov in lhe posl-Soviel
peiiod lhe Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff is nolivaled ly
lhe assessnenls of lhe Aneiicans on lhe highesl slale
of lhe Russian ained foices. AppaienlIy he does nol
ieaIize lhal lhis is said lo a gieal exlenl in oidei lo in3
ciease lhe Ienlagons ludgel. And neanvhiIe lhe oi3
ganizalionaI voik of lhe highesl niIilaiy ciicIe degen3
eiales inlo piinilive papeivoik, as if lhe papei ilseIf
viII soIve lhe piolIens of lhe ained foices.
58
The die vas IaigeIy casl lhen duiing 2OO7-O8 and
."#+# '#+# &-.#+8&..#-. +28/+( ."0. ."# -#' ,/7.+&-#
vouId le signed in lhe Iallei pail of each yeai. The
queslion aiises, vhy vas il deIayed` Sone anaIysls
suggesled lhal evaIualing MD, oi lhe piesidenliaI
liansilion fion Iulin lo Medvedev, oi indeed vailing
lo assess lhe oulcone of lhe U.S. piesidenliaI eIeclion
nay have pIayed sone pail in sheIving lhe docliine.
Hovevei, lhe necessily foi lhe nev docliine eneiged
noie shaipIy aflei lhe Russia-Ceoigia vai in Augusl
2OO8 and lhe Iaunching of Seidyukovs nev Iook ie3
foins in Oclolei 2OO8. Ioi inslance, lhe incIusion in
lhe docliine of lhe afhinalion of lhe iighl lo depIoy
lioops alioad lo defend lhe inleiesls of lhe Russian
Iedeialion and ils cilizens, and lo piolecl inleinalion3
aI peace and secuiily, diieclIy foIIovs Medvedevs
Decenlei 2OO8 (Seclion III.26) change lo lhe Iav on
defense peinilling lhis lype of inleivenlion.
59
64
5*(E%$# :0,"*#% $.+ 2%+#$Y"'.&.
Despile lhe iesel in U.S.-Russian ieIalions lhal
IaigeIy look pIace in lhe faII of 2OO9 aiound lhe on3
going START laIks, senioi Russian secuiily ofhciaIs
nol onIy inpIied lhal consideialion vas leing given
lo Ioveiing lhe nucIeai lhieshoId, lul aIso lo lhe ex3
lension of nucIeai deleiience lo invoIve IocaI conicls.
AIlhough he vas nol inlending lo pionole an inage
of conlinued convenlionaI niIilaiy veakness, Secie3
laiy of lhe Secuiily CounciI and foinei Diiecloi of lhe
IS, NikoIai Ialiushev, ieveaIed delaiIs of changes lo
lhe diafl niIilaiy docliine in ieIalion lo lhe counliys
nucIeai posluie. In an inleiviev vilh jouinaIisls in
Novosiliisk on Oclolei 8, 2OO9, Ialiushev signaIed
lhal lhe docliine vas leing hne-luned, and nay in3
cIude lhe iighl lo use a pievenlalive nucIeai sliike.
6O

He aIso slaled lhal Moscovs giealesl piioiily vas lo
keep ils nucIeai slale slalus and lhal condilions of
lhe depIoynenl of nucIeai veapons veie coiiecled
lo aIIov lheii use nol onIy in gIolaI lul aIso iegionaI
and even IocaI conicls. He aIso said: The condi3
lions foi lhe use of nucIeai veapons lo iepeI aggies3
sion vilh lhe use of convenlionaI veaponiy in Iaige-
scaIe, lul aIso in iegionaI and even in a IocaI vai have
leen coiiecled. Moieovei, in silualions ciilicaI foi na3
lionaI secuiily, lhe inicling of a pievenlive nucIeai
sliike upon an aggiessoi is nol excIuded. Hovevei,
his neaning vas cIeai, since duiing his inleiviev he
Iefl IillIe scope foi doull, using lhe void prctcn|itnqq
(pievenlive) seveiaI lines and onIy once using lhe
.#+8 uprczndaquscniq (pieenplive).
61
Il is aIso inpoi3
lanl lo nole lhal CeneiaI aIuyevsky piovided lacil
suppoil foi lhese connenls, conhining on Oclolei
65
15, 2OO9, lhal such ievisions veie leing nade lo lhe
diafl docliine.
62
Such connenls aioused liepidalion
even on lhe pail of Russias cIosesl aIIies.
63
Russian connenlalois veie aIso uneasy aloul
Ialiushevs connenls, lhough IaigeIy in agieenenl
lhal despile Seidyukovs iefoin agenda, il inpIied
conlinued convenlionaI veakness. Konslanlin Sivkov,
lhe Vice-Iiesidenl of lhe Acadeny of CeopoIilicaI
IiolIens, said lhal due lo lhe seiious piolIens in
lhe ained foices, Russia can ensuie ils nalionaI se3
72+&.5 0-, '0+, /11 8&6&.0+5 ."+#0.( /- ."# (706# /1
IocaI vais and alove |iegionaI and Iaige-scaIej onIy
ly iecouise lo lhe lhieal oi diiecl use of nucIeai veap3
ons.
64
AIeksandi Iikayev, a goveinnenl ciilic and a
high-ianking nenlei of lhe Russian Acadeny of Sci3
#-7#9 (0&, ."0. ."# *60--#, ("&1. &- ."# -#' ,/7.+&-#
ieecled convenlionaI veakness and an adnission
lhal lhe ained foices sinpIy veie unalIe lo caiiy oul
lheii assigned nissions. Igoi Koiolchenko, a nen3
lei of lhe Defense Minisliys IulIic CounciI and lhe
."#- #,&./+ /1 Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqq Kurqcr9 (0&, ."0.
lhe nev docliine had lo conpensale foi lhe degia3
dalion of lhe Russian ained foices, adding lhal lo
pieseive ils gieal povei slalus Russia is ieady lo
use nucIeai veapons.
65
Sone even suggesled lhal lhe
Iack of piogiess in niIilaiy iefoin had incieased ieIi3
ance upon nucIeai veapons as lhe onIy possilIe vay
lo delei aggiession againsl Russia.
66
Olhei ofhciaIs and expeils veie noie guaided
in lheii assessnenls, Iinking any possilIe incIusion
of Ialiushevs Ieaks in lhe nev docliine, once hnaI3
ized, lo piogiess in lhe START laIks. An unnaned
(/2+7# &- ."# *+#(&,#-.&06 0,8&-&(.+0.&/-9 1/+ &-(.0-7#9
./6, Vcdcncs|i lhal lhe nev docliine vas sliII leing
voiked oul, and lhe hnaI decision vouId le Iefl lo
66
Medvedev.
67
AIlhough nuch of lhe docliine had aI3
ieady leen diafled, il appeais on cIosei exaninalion
lhal sone iediafling occuiied foIIoving lhe neeling
lelveen Olana and Medvedev in Moscov on }uIy 7,
2OO9, and lhal lhese ievisions veie fuilhei affecled ly
lhe ongoing START negolialions. In Ieliuaiy 2OO9,
Seidyukov cIained lhe nev docliine vouId le ieady
foi signing in Seplenlei 2OO9, vhiIe Ialei in lhe sane
nonlh CCS Makaiov expIained lhal docliine had leen
voiked oul and viII ienain in ils cuiienl foin.
68

y May 2OO9, CoIoneI-CeneiaI (Reliied) VIadinii
Kaialushin, lhe Vice-Iiesidenl of lhe Acadeny of
MiIilaiy Sciences, said lhe nev docliine vouId ieceive
Medvedevs signaluie in eaiIy Augusl.
69
NonelheIess,
in eaiIy Augusl Ialiushev, fai fion inpIying inni3
nenl signaluie, said lhal in facl sulslanliaI ievisions
veie nade and cIained lhal lhe Ialesl diafl loie IillIe
iesenlIance lo lhe eaiIiei one. Il is IikeIy lhal lhe poinl
of neuiaIgia and disagieenenl ieIaled lo lhe nucIeai
issue.
7O
The alandonnenl of lhe nass noliIizalion syslen
and liansilion fion lhe division-lased sliucluie in
lhe giound foices lo lhe liigade-lased iepIacenenl,
inpIenenled iapidIy lhioughoul 2OO9 neanl lhe doc3
liine couId onIy ieaIislicaIIy le signed al lhe end of
lhal yeai.
71
As lhal oiganizalionaI liansilion occuiied
and lhe nev liigades veie lesled in opeialionaI-slia3
legic exeicises in 2OO9 (Kavkaz, Ladoga, and Zapad
2OO9), lhe CeneiaI Slaff had lo conlend vilh convinc3
ing skeplics lhal lhe nev Iook nay iesuIl in Ioveiing
ieadiness IeveIs. Thal in luin Ied lo lhe havks push3
ing lhe nucIeai lhieshoId and pieenplive sliike issues
onlo lhe agenda, vhiIe lhe CeneiaI Slaff Ieadeiship al3
lenpled lo poiliay lhe nev liigades as noie conlal
capalIe and conlal ieady.
72
Despile lhe pulIic cIains
67
."0. ."# 7/-%#-.&/-06 .+0-(1/+80.&/- "0, +#(26.#, &-
achieving lhe capaliIily lo depIoy liigades vilhin 1
houi, il seens lhal a lenuous consensus vas ieached
anounling lo iecognilion lhal lhe iefoins had nol
danaged ieadiness IeveIs (vhich veie veiy Iov piioi
lo Iaunching Seidyukovs iefoin).
73
>- 0,,&.&/-06
aiea of videspiead disagieenenl ieIaled lo alandon3
ing Russias liadilionaI seIf-ieIiance on ils defense
indusliy foi ils piocuienenl needs. The adnission in
Seplenlei 2OO9 lhal laIks veie undeivay lelveen
Moscov and Iaiis on lhe possilIe piocuienenl of lhe
Mis|ra| cIass anphilious assauIl ship lioughl lhe con3
lioveisy ovei seeking foieign ainanenls and equip3
nenl lo lhe foie and lhis inleinaI lussIe nosl IikeIy
caiiied ovei inlo lhe issue of hnaIizing lhe niIilaiy
docliine.
74
The iefoineis aIso knev lhe diafl paid
scanl iegaid lo lhe nev Iook and had lo liace lhen3
(#6%#( ./ *+#(( 0"#0, '&." ."# +#1/+8 ,#(*&.# ."# &83
pending pulIicalion of a docliine lhal seens al odds
vilh lhe agenda.
WhiIe nucIeai pieenplion and Ioveiing lhe lhiesh3
oId vas cIeaiIy on lhe agenda, an evenl in eaiIy De3
cenlei 2OO9 in Moscov nay veII have pioven lo le
an oppoilunily lo nove a voice of ieason cenlei slage.
On Decenlei 8, 2OO9, an assenlIy of lhe Acadeny
of MiIilaiy Sciences heId in Moscov exanined uigenl
piolIens in lhe deveIopnenl of niIilaiy science and
inpioving lhe counliys defense. In lhe piesence of
nany of lhe niIilaiy lop liass, lhe keynole speech vas
given ly lhe Iiesidenl of lhe Acadeny, Ainy-CeneiaI
(Reliied) Makhnul Caieev. His vide-ianging speech
coveied lhe silualion in Afghanislan, lhe expansion of
NATO, lhe Soulh Caucasus, CenliaI Asia, liansnalion3
aI lhieals, and changes in lhe slialegic enviionnenl.
Caieev said lhal insufhcienl allenlion vas given lo
68
idenlifying lhe inlenlions and foiecasling lhe piaclicaI
07.&/-( /1 -28#+/2( &-.#+-0.&/-06 0-, .+0-(-0.&/-06
foices, pailicuIaiIy lhe veslein lhink lanks pioducing
cIosed voik foi goveinnenl. This is vhy nany in3
poilanl piocesses end up oulside oui heId of viev,
he asseiled. Hovevei, he noled foins of opposilion,
econonic, infoinalion-lased, and psychoIogicaI, hav3
ing a sulslanliaI inpacl on lhe naluie of vaifaie and
lhe deveIopnenl and liaining of ained foices. Sliess3
ing lhal nucIeai veapons ienain lhe nosl inpoilanl
and ieIialIe neans lo ensuie lhe secuiily of lhe Rus3
(&0- (.0.#9 "# (0&, ."0. '&." ."# -0.2+# /1 -#' ."+#0.(
nucIeai veapons couId nol le iegaided in alsoIule
leins. Caieev noled:
Having a nindsel lhal Russias secuiily is guaianleed
as Iong as lheie aie nucIeai veapons do nol confoin
fuIIy lo lhe nev ieaIilies. We knov lhe Soviel Union
had nucIeai veapons, lul nucIeai veapons ienain
and lheie is no union slale.
75
Moieovei, he enphasized lhal such veapons can3
nol le geneiaI-puipose, sliessing lheii use is fuliIe
in IocaI silualions such as Chechnya oi lo neuliaI3
ize econonic and infoinalion lhieals oi aII lypes of
sulveisive aclivily. Diaving on lhe expeiience of lhe
Cieal Ialiiolic Wai, Caieev said il vas line lo assess
."# 8#+&.( /1 ."# ,#7&(&%# &8*/+.0-7# -/. /-65 /1 ."#
iniliaI peiiod of vai, lul alove aII lhe hisl slialegic
sliike. Reninding his audience of lhe difhcuIlies lhe
Red Ainy faced in lhe hisl fev nonlhs foIIoving lhe
Ceinan invasion in 1941, lhen iefeiiing lo noie iecenl
conicls in lhe Ieisian CuIf and YugosIavia (1991 and
1999 iespecliveIy), he said in nodein condilions il is
inpossilIe lo vilhsland a nassive hisl sliike. Theie3
foie, as in lhe hghl againsl leiioiisn, noie aggiessive
69
07.&/-( 0+# -##,#, 0-, *+##8*.&%# 07.&/-( 0( '#669 &1
necessaiy, he concIuded.
76
His appeaI seened Iess
nucIeai lhan il did convenlionaI. An aspecl Ialei laken
up in ApiiI 2O1O ly Andiei Kokoshin, a nenlei of lhe
Russian Acadeny of Sciences and foinei nenlei of
lhe Secuiily CounciI: The nev Russian-U.S. liealy on
slialegic offensive ainanenls Iays lhe lasis foi sliale3
gic slaliIily foi lhe foieseealIe fuluie. Hovevei, lhis is
nol an aulonalicaIIy achievalIe oljeclive. Il can onIy
le achieved if Russia conlinues lo caiiy oul a vhoIe
iange of inpiovenenls lo ils slialegic foices. He ex3
pIained lhal Russia shouId keep ils slialegic foices se3
cuie againsl allacks and inciease lheii capacily lo pen3
eliale any polenliaI nissiIe defense, adding: Slialegic
slaliIily viII IaigeIy depend on piecision veapons
vilh convenlionaI vaiheads, lo vhich a gieal deaI of
allenlion shouId aIso le paid, pioviding Russia vilh
0 */.#-.&06 1/+ -/-3-276#0+ /+ prc-nuc|car dc|crrcncc.
77

The Iallei ly lhe vay, is piesciiled ly lhe nev Rus3
sian niIilaiy docliine, he said.
78
His iefeience lo prc-
nuc|car dc|crrcncc diev upon Caieevs lhinking, lul il
is sliII a Iong vay off, as lhe convenlionaI nodeiniza3
lion of lhe Russian ained foices faces lechnoIogicaI
and defense indusliy-ieIaled chaIIenges. In any case,
Caieevs vas a voice of ieason: nucIeai veapons can3
nol le consideied as geneiaI-puipose oplions.
Ialiushevs Ieaks veie uIlinaleIy alsenl fion lhe
nev niIilaiy docliine vhich, if anylhing, assunes a
8/+# 702.&/2( (.0-7# /- ."# -276#0+ &((2# ."0- ,&, &.(
pievious veision in 2OOO. Theie is no connilnenl lo
pievenlive oi pieenplive sliikes, oi iefeience lo IocaI
conicl. Ils connenl on lhe issue, liiefei lhan in 2OOO,
desciiles nucIeai use vhen lhe veiy exislence of lhe
slale is undei lhieal, inslead of lhe eaiIiei: in silu3
alions ciilicaI lo lhe nalionaI secuiily of lhe Russian
Iedeialion.(Seclion III.22).
79
7O
The Russian Iedeialion ieseives lhe iighl lo uliIize
nucIeai veapons in iesponse lo lhe uliIizalion of nu3
76#0+ 0-, /."#+ .5*#( /1 '#0*/-( /1 80(( ,#(.+27.&/-
againsl il and (oi) ils aIIies, and aIso in lhe evenl of ag3
giession againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion invoIving lhe
2(# /1 7/-%#-.&/-06 '#0*/-( '"#- ."# %#+5 #)&(.#-7#
of lhe slale is undei lhieal. (Seclion III.22).
8O
>( &1 ./ (.+#(( (.&66 12+."#+ ."# 6#%#6 /1 #).+#8# 7023
lion invoIved, lhe docliine aIso adds: The decision
lo uliIize nucIeai veapons is nade ly lhe Russian
Iedeialion piesidenl. Ils incIusion seens caIilialed
./ +#8&-, ."# 8&6&.0+5 ."0. ."# ,#7&(&/- +#(.( '&." ."#
supiene poIilicaI Ieadeiship. Despile lhe conlioveisy
in lhe faII of 2OO9, lhe docliine did nol adopl a noie
aggiessive nucIeai posluie, suggesling lhal a sliuggIe
occuiied in lhe hialus iesuIling in lhe vicloiy of noie
nodeiale foices in lhe Russian secuiily eIile.
81
?"&6#
lheie vas a fudge on lhe issue of lhe nev Iook, on
lhe nucIeai issue and foieign piocuienenl lhe havks
veie pIucked and lheii hopes foi iapid fealhei giovlh
Iay in queslioning vhelhei lhe nev Iook viII piove
successfuI in lhe fuluie and in cIinging dognalicaIIy
lo nucIeai deleiience. IaiadoxicaIIy, lhe nev docliine
sulsequenlIy aIIoved sIighlIy noie scope lo lhose
advocaling iefoin lo openIy discuss lhe leelhing
piolIens of lhe nev Iook ained foices.
:45?;24T! /;Z 45? O2;9-5O
-5=8254=-;547 !=24=8O-6 6;5@3!-;5
This uneasy consensus ieecled in lhe nev niIi3
laiy docliine, vhich appeais veighed in favoi of oId
0**+/07"#(9 80-&1#(.( &.(#61 &- 0 72+&/2( '05 &- ."#
counliys nucIeai posluie. MiIilaiy juslihcalion foi
71
such ieIuclance lo ieduce oi eIininale Russian lacli3
caI nucIeai veapons (TNW) is Iess iooled in slialegic
deleiience capaliIilies lhan eilhei Russian poIilicians
oi expeils adnil. The Defense Minisliys 12lh Main
Diiecloiale (G|atncqc Uprat|cniqc Minis|crs|tc Ooc-
rcnq~CUMO) lasked vilh iesponsiliIily foi nucIeai
'#0*/-(9 80&-.0&-( ."0. (27" '#0*/-( 0+# -##,#, &-
lhe KoIa IeninsuIa al navaI faciIilies. LquaIIy, il is faii
lo say lhal vilhin lhe Russian ained foices, lhe navy
is lhe nain advocale of nainlaining lhese capaliIilies,
(&-7# ."#5 0+# 7/-(&,#+#, 0( 0 -#7#((0+5 *0+. /1 7/-3
fionling lhe U.S. Navy in any conicl. In Augusl 2OO9,
lhe navaI nain slaff indicaled lhal lhe ioIe of TNW
vas sel lo expand on allack nucIeai sulnaiines foi
lhal veiy ieason.
82
CUMO and lhe unifoined ained
foices, hovevei, vouId pIace nuch giealei cuiiency
upon Iong-iange syslens, ialhei lhan on laclicaI
veapons vhen allenpling lo ieIale nucIeai slialegy
lo acluaI niIilaiy pIanning. As lhe Russian slale seeks
lo updale and nodeinize ils slialegic nucIeai foices
ly 2O2O, nany aie expiessing skeplicisn lhal lhis viII
le fuIIy inpIenenled, nol onIy oving lo ludgelaiy
sellacks, lul aIso due lo lhe ongoing design piolIens
expeiienced in conneclion vilh lhe uIava sulna3
iine-Iaunched laIIislic nissiIe (SLM). NeveilheIess,
lhe poIilicaI ineilia and sensilivily suiiounding lhe is3
sue of nonslialegic veapons has Iong iesonance aflei
pievious fuliIe effoils lo nake piogiess on lhe issue.
?"&6# 80-5 "0%# =2#(.&/-#, ."# 8&6&.0+5 %062# /1
TNW, a leIief in such niIilaiy vaIue nosl ceilainIy
peisisls in lhe Russian slialegic conlexl, lul piinaiiIy
in ieIalion lo China. This is due lo seveiaI faclois aII
Iinked lo Russian convenlionaI veakness vis-a-vis lhe
ILA. In lhe hisl inslance, in any niIilaiy conicl lhe
Russian VVS cannol guaianlee aii supeiioiily againsl
72
lhe Chinese. Moieovei, lhey do nol possess sensoi-
fused cIuslei nunilions, lhough in lheoiy lheii sui3
face lo suiface nissiIes (SSMs) couId deIivei cIuslei
nunilions depending on vhelhei lhe nissiIe lioops
ienained inlacl Iong enough. Iaced vilh an advanc3
ing ILA division oi divisions, eaiIy use of TNW vouId
piesenl a vialIe oplion.
In Ieliuaiy 2O1O, AIeksey Ailalov, lhe Head of
lhe Moscov-lased WoiId Lcononics and Inleinalion3
aI ReIalions Inslilule of lhe Cenlei foi InleinalionaI
Secuiily, expIained lhal such veapons aie foi Mos3
cov, lhe chief guaianlee foi nainlaining a laIance of
foices vilh lhe Uniled Slales, adding: Consideiing
lhe coIossaI U.S. supeiioiily in convenlionaI veapons
and lhe gioving Iag alove aII in deIiveiy vehicIes of
lhe slialegic foices, lhe ioIe of TNW onIy giovs as an
insliunenl of foieign poIicy. Yel, lhe niIilaiy signih3
cance of lhe laclicaI veapons is fai ecIipsed ly lhe issue
of hov lo veiify and noniloi any linding joinl ieduc3
lions, since, as he adnils, lhis is in oidei of nagnilude
nuch noie conpIex lhan any ieduclion in slialegic
nucIeai foices. TechnicaIIy il is piaclicaIIy inpossilIe
lo veiify a ieduclion, he suggesled. WhiIe inleicon3
linenlaI nissiIes sinpIy can le deslioyed, you cannol
do il so sinpIy vilh duaI-puipose deIiveiy syslens,
Ailalov leIieves, poinling oul lhal fionlaI avialion ai3
liIIeiy and lhe navy can le equipped vilh such capa3
liIilies, lul noniloiing lheii sloiage faciIilies vouId
le unpiecedenled.
83
CoIoneI-CeneiaI (Reliied) Vikloi Yesin, a foinei
Chief of lhe Main Slaff of lhe RVSN, Iinking iecenl as3
suiances ovei U.S. MD pIans vilh lhe possilIe fuluie
pailicipalion of Russia, expiessed lhe need foi caulion
on lhe pail of Moscov:
73
When lhe issue is nalionaI secuiily, allenlion nusl le
given lo lhe capaliIilies of lhe ains syslen leing de3
veIoped and nol lo assuiances, vhich can change in 1
houi. Moscov shouId nol faII inlo lhe sane liap lhal
&. 1#66 &-./ &- ."# *0(. '"#- ."# ?#(. *+/8&(#, ."0.9
aflei lhe unihcalion of Ceinany, NATO vouId nol
advance lo lhe Lasl.
84

Such skeplicisn, disliusl, and ouliighl opposilion lo
coopeialion vilh lhe Uniled Slales oi NATO in lhe
aieas liadilionaIIy fealuiing in Russian anli-veslein
foieign poIicy iheloiic is noie pionounced in lhe
discussion on TNW. Any sense lhal such discussions
nay seive lo lenehl Russian secuiily is al lesl a ni3
noiily viev. WhiIe ils U.S. and Luiopean advocales
appeai lo suggesl lhal lhe ieduclion of U.S. TNW
lased in Luiope vouId iesuIl in sliong piessuie on
Moscov lo iecipiocale, Russian expeils adopl a noie
nuanced slance, pailIy lased on allacking veslein
lhinking oi in poinling oul lhe conliadiclions in lhe
slialegic lhinking al pIay. Majoi-CeneiaI (Reliied)
VIadinii Dvoikin, a senioi ieseaichei al lhe Inslilule
of WoiId Lconony and InleinalionaI ReIalions of lhe
Russian Acadeny of Sciences,
85
+#7#-.65 #-70*(260.#,
lhal appioach ly noling lhal Russia need nol iespond
lo any fuluie vilhdiavaI of such veapons fion Lu3
iope, since, as he suggesled, lhis vouId lake lhe foin
of a uniIaleiaI aclion, and Russia has no such veapons
depIoyed leyond ils leiiiloiy. OnIy aflei a uniIaleiaI
vilhdiavaI of U.S. TNW fion Luiope couId liIaleiaI
laIks connence lelveen Moscov and Washinglon
ained al a laIanced ieduclion of lhese veapons. As
Dvoikin slaled in vhal couId onIy have leen a pass3
ing iefeience lo lhe China facloi, This does nol nean
lhal ve nusl achieve lhe sane ceiIings (lhal is, lhe
sane IeveIs of TNW), since, in conpaiison vilh lhe
74
Uniled Slales, Russia is in a diffeienl iegionaI silu3
alion. Yesin aIso suppoils such a posilion, aiguing
lhal Moscov nusl sel as a pie-condilion lo any laIks,
lhal aII slialegic and TNW nusl le Iocaled excIusiveIy
on lhe nalionaI leiiiloiies of lhose slales possessing
lhen.
86
Dvoikin inpIied lhal any poIicy designed lo
pIace lhe onus on Russia vouId le dooned fion
lhe oulsel.
On ApiiI 21, 2O1O, piioi lo liaveIing lo Washinglon
foi laIks on a iange of secuiily issues, CCS CeneiaI
Makaiov indicaled lhal lhis iepiesenls ofhciaI poIicy,
slaling lhal any fuluie negolialion nusl le pieceded
ly vilhdiaving U.S. veapons fion Luiope. He aIso
aigued lhal given lhe convenlionaI inlaIance in Lu3
iope lelveen NATO and Russian foices, incIuding
piecision veapons, TNW pIay an inpoilanl ioIe foi
Russia.
87
Due lo lhe Iack of ofhciaI lianspaiency on lhese
veapons, eslinales as lo lhe piecise nunleis in lhe
Russian invenloiy vaiy videIy fion 2,OOO lo 6,OOO,
vilh lhe Iovei hguie concenlialed noie on depIoyed
veapons, vhiIe olheis aie sloied. One eslinale cIained
lhe giound foices sliII have access lo noie lhan 1,1OO
laclicaI vaiheads vilh noie lhan 2,2OO avaiIalIe foi
navaI depIoynenl. y 2OO7, CUMO iepoiled lhal aII
laclicaI veapons ieduclions anong lhose assigned lo
lhe giound foices had leen conpIeled.
88
In Iale 2OO3,
senioi Russian niIilaiy ofhciaIs suggesled lhal such
veapons veie needed lo counlei possilIe deveIop3
nenl of nev lypes of U.S. veapons, and in Iale 2OO8,
CCS Makaiov said lhese veie iequiied as Iong as
lhe Luiopean conlinenl vas unslalIe and so heaviIy
ained. Seigei Kaiaganov, on lhe lasis of avaiIalIe
iepoils connenled: Accoiding lo unofhciaI infoi3
nalion (ve usuaIIy do nol piovide ofhciaI infoina3
75
lion), Russia has 5,4OO of lhese vaiheads, 2,OOO aie in
a conlal-ieady slale, and lhe najoiily of lhen aie in
Luiope.
89
Havkish nenleis of lhe Russian secuiily eIile
.#-, ./ 2-&.# 0+/2-, ."# &,#0 ."0. &. &( .// #0+65 ./
legin lo discuss lhe laclicaI nucIeai issue. On Maich
5, 2O1O, addiessing a nonpioIifeialion confeience in
Moscov dedicaled lo lhe 4Olh anniveisaiy of lhe Nu3
cIeai Non-IioIifeialion Tiealy (NIT), Ainy-CeneiaI
Yuii aIuyevsky, Depuly-Secielaiy of lhe Russian Se3
cuiily CounciI and foinei CCS, said lhal such laIks
couId legin, lul onIy aflei lhe Uniled Slales vilh3
diev such veapons fion Luiope, sliessing lhe Uniled
Slales is unique in leing onIy counliy lhal has TNW
on lhe leiiiloiies of olhei slales. aIuyevsky sliessed
lhal Aneiican laclicaI nucIeai ainanenls in Luiope
aie slialegic foi Russia lecause lheii deIiveiy vehicIes
have a snaII dislance lo covei.
9O
aIuyevsky aIso ie3
acled negaliveIy lo lhe shifl in U.S. nucIeai docliine,
saying lhal il vas iooled in lhe gioving capaliIily of ils
high-piecision sliike syslens, and echoed lhe concein
of olhei Russian niIilaiy ofhciaIs aloul pIacing con3
venlionaI vaiheads on slialegic deIiveiy syslens.
91
In
Oclolei 2OO9, Lieulenanl-CeneiaI Andiei Shvaichen3
ko, Connandei of lhe RVSN, expiessed deep concein
lhal inleinalionaI secuiily nighl le danaged ly lhe
foinalion of lhe U.S. CIolaI Sliike Connand. He said
lhal as conceived, sliikes couId le Iaunched caiiying
0 -276#0+ /+ 7/-%#-.&/-06 *056/0,9 0-, "# -/.#, ."0.
no deleclion syslen vas capalIe of dislinguishing lhe
lype of vaihead aflei ils Iaunch. The slale laigeled
ly such a sliike vouId need lo evaIuale lhe degiee
of lhieal and appiopiiale ielaIialoiy neasuies lo le
laken, he said. In lhe shoil line span invoIved, lhe
iesponse viII le quile piediclalIe, vhich couId push
76
nankind lo lhe liink of a nucIeai calasliophe, lhe
geneiaI expIained.
92
Olhei aspecls of Moscovs allilude lovaids lhe
issue of ieducing TNW appeai enliieIy unieaIislic.
In eaiIy ApiiI 2O1O, Lieulenanl-CeneiaI Yevgeny u3
zhinsky, lhe foinei Head of lhe Defense Minisliys
InleinalionaI LegaI Depailnenl, said lhal Russia
couId legin such discussions onIy aflei hisl achieving
convenlionaI paiily vilh lhe Uniled Slales, incIuding
in ieIalion lo high-piecision veapons.
We shouId nol slail negolialions on lhe ieduclion of
laclicaI nucIeai ainanenls as Iong as ve have dispai3
ily in convenlionaI ainanenls, especiaIIy high-pieci3
sion ones. Undei lhese ciicunslances, laclicaI nucIeai
0+808#-.( 0+# 8#0-( /1 ,#.#++#-7# 0-, 0-5 +#,273
lions viII inevilalIy danage Russian secuiily.
93

CIeaiIy, given lhe ongoing piolIens facing lhe Rus3
sian defense indusliy conlined vilh lhe lechnoIogy
Iag lelveen ils ieseaich and deveIopnenl conpaied
lo lhe Uniled Slales, as veII as lhe voefuIIy inad3
#=20.# 6#%#6 /1 8/,#+- #=2&*8#-. 0-, '#0*/-( &-
lhe Russian TOL, such paiily viII piove inpossilIe
lo achieve. ul his asseilion undeiscoies a fai deepei
anxiely ieIaling lo Iong-lein Russian convenlionaI
foices veaknesses lhal viII piove lo le a signihcanl
laiiiei anong lhe secuiily eIiles in pIacing lhe laclicaI
nucIeai ieduclion issue on lhe lalIe. uzhinsky venl
fuilhei lhan nany expeils. Refeiiing lo lhe piecondi3
lion lhal lhe Uniled Slales uniIaleiaIIy vilhdiavs ils
TNW fion Luiope piioi lo enleiing US-Russian laIks,
he added lhal aII ieIaled infiasliucluie in Luiope nusl
le disnanlIed in oidei lo iuIe oul iedepIoynenl Ialei.
77
IoIIoving lhe signing of lhe Nev START, Seigey
Rogov, lhe Diiecloi of lhe Russian Acadeny of Sci3
ences, Uniled Slales, and Canada Inslilule, vas inlei3
vieved in lhe defense ninisliy pulIicalion, Krasnaqa
Ztczda, on ApiiI 7, 2O1O. Like olhei Russian expeils,
Rogov lioadIy veIconed lhe nev START and oul3
Iined a nunlei of ils fealuies lhal suiled Russian
poIicy conceins. Hovevei, he venl on lo ieaIislicaIIy
assess lhe START lieaklhiough ly highIighling a
nunlei of ils veaknesses. His slailing poinl vas lo
expIain lhal a laIance of foices is nol iesliicled lo slia3
legic nucIeai ains and lhal lhe nev liealy conlinues
lo pieseive U.S. and NATO supeiioiily ovei Russia
in nucIeai and convenlionaI leins. Then he noled
lhal lhe liealy faiIs lo addiess Moscovs concein lhal
piecision veapons leing deveIoped ly lhe Uniled
Slales aie nol Iiniled ly lhe nev START, vhich he
highIighled as anonaIous since such veapons sys3
lens as pail of lhe gIolaI sliike piogian nighl pose
a lhieal lo Russian slialegic faciIilies. Moieovei, since
lhe nunlei of Russian nissiIes capalIe of caiiying a
Iaige quanlily of vaiheads viII le slood dovn in lhe
fuluie oving lo aging, Rogov aigued lhal lhe Uniled
Slales viII nainlain ils supeiioiily in ieluin polenliaI,
lhough nol al lhe sane IeveI as undei lhe Slialegic Of3
fensive Reduclions Tiealy (SORT). Conlinued voik on
MD, vhiIe nol iepiesenling an innediale issue foi
Moscov, viII pose a polenliaI piolIen in 15-2O yeais,
vhich Rogov suggesled denands lhe deveIopnenl of
Russian counleineasuies. IinaIIy, he said lhal liIal3
eiaI nucIeai liealies nusl give vay lo a videi nuIli3
IaleiaI fianevoik lhal lakes accounl of lhe giovlh in
lhe nunlei of nucIeai slales.
94
78
=$("'($E 5*(E%$# 2%+*("'0. =$E1, $, $ 2',1 "0
2*,,'$. Q'E'"$#[ 2%Y0#GD
Seigey Kaiaganov, lhe Chaiinan of lhe Iiesidiun
of lhe CounciI on Ioieign and Defense IoIicy, in an
ailicIe pulIished in Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a on ApiiI 23,
2O1O, aigued sliongIy againsl Russia enleiing such
negolialions on lhe lasis lhal lhey vouId seive lo un3
deinine Seidyukovs niIilaiy iefoin. IIacing TNW
on lhe agenda, in his viev, vouId slienglhen lhe hand
/1 ."/(# /**/(#, ./ ."# +0,&706 7/-%#-.&/-06 +#1/+8
undeivay in Russia, vhich he said vas geaied lo3
vaid shifling lhese foices avay fion lheii liadilionaI
hxalion on NATO lovaid enhancing lheii capaliIilies
lo deaI vilh noie pIausilIe lhieals and chaIIenges.
Kaiaganov conlinued:
WilhdiavaI of Aneiican TNW (loken aisenaIs as lhey
aie) fion Luiope viII veaken lhe U.S.-Luiope Iink. A
good deaI of Luiopeans~and pailicuIaiIy in lhe so-
caIIed Nev Luiopean counliies~viII slail cIanoiing
foi lellei defense fion lhe nylhicaI Russian Ievia3
lhan.
95

WhiIe noling lhal he aIso assuned a uniIaleiaI Aneii3
can vilhdiavaI as a piecuisoi lo joining lhis piocess,
he enphalicaIIy chaiacleiized il as a highIy dangei3
ous slep Ieading lo slialegic confusion and vhal Kaia3
ganov vieved as opening Iandoias ox: Luphoiic
ovei lhe Iiague liealy signing, so caIIed expeils insisl
on laclicaI nucIeai ains ieduclion laIks. Lefl lo lheii
ovn devices, lhey viII open lhis Iandoias ox in no
line al aII.
96
This vas nol lhe hisl line he used lhe
Iandoias ox aigunenl, lul heie he vas cIeaiIy sig3
naIing lhal lhe deIicale laIance lhal exisls vilhin lhe
Russian defense and secuiily eIile ovei lhe cuiienl
79
niIilaiy iefoin vouId le upsel ly pIaying lhe laclicaI
nucIeai caid, a laIance ieecled in lhe conpionise
lhal Ied lo lhe nev niIilaiy docliine in Ieliuaiy 2O1O
and one lhal appeaied vuIneialIe as discussions con3
linued in Moscov on lhe fuluie shape of lhe nanning
syslen in lhe ained foices. ShouId lhis unpiediclalIe
piocess le unIeashed, lhe IikeIy key indicaloi lhal lhe
opponenls of niIilaiy iefoin have gained lhe uppei
hand vouId le signaIed ly an inciease in lhe lein of
consciipl seivice fion 1 yeai lack lo 2 yeais, iepie3
senling poIilicaI and psychoIogicaI defeal foi Seidyu3
kovs iefoin.
The lediock of Kaiaganovs aigunenl, hovevei,
&( +//.#, &- ."# .+0,&.&/-0665 (07+/(0-7. */(&.&/- /1
nucIeai veapons in Russian secuiily slialegy, vhich
2-,#+6&#( "&( 2..#+ /**/(&.&/- ./ '"0. "# (##( 0( ."#
senseIess and ideaIislic caII foi gIolaI zeio in nucIeai
ains ieduclion advocaled ly lhe Olana adninislia3
lion. His assessnenl of Russias geopoIilicaI posilion
is lIeak: vilh ils nodeinizalion inpaiied ly coiiup3
lion. Russian secuiily is guaianleed ly ils nucIeai ca3
paliIily, vhich is aIso lhe nain souice of ils poIilicaI
econonic veighl in lhe voiId. In lhis conlexl, Kaia3
ganov leIieves lhal any nove lovaid alandoning
lhese veapons vouId piove suicidaI foi lhe Russian
slale. The cn|q puipose ains conlioI laIks seive foi
Moscov, he cIained, is lo luiId liusl and lianspai3
ency lelveen lhe voiId poveis, This is aII Russia
needs ains conlioI laIks foi.
97
Kaiaganovs inuenliaI voik in lhis aiea cannol
le sepaialed fion videi slialegic issues and aieas
of diveigence vilhin lhe conpIex and evoIving U.S.-
Russian liIaleiaI ieIalionship. These incIude lhe pie3
7&(# -0.2+# 0-, .+04#7./+5 /1 ."# +#(#. 0-, "/' ."&( &(
inleipieled lolh in Washinglon and Moscov as veII
8O
as anong AIIiance nenleis, fuluie MD pIans, Med3
vedevs Luiopean secuiily liealy inilialive, and hov
lhe gIolaI zeio concepl is vieved ly lhe Russian se3
cuiily eIile. Kaiaganov has expiessed skeplicisn ovei
lhe neaning and oljeclive conlenl in lhe iesel poIicy,
openIy queslioned lhe adninislialions pIans lo de3
pIoy MD conponenls in uIgaiia and Ronania ly
2O15, and has heiceIy ciilicized gIolaI zeio lolh in
leins of lhe cenliaIily of nucIeai deleiience in Rus3
(&0- (#72+&.5 */6&75 0-, ."# 7/-.+0,&7./+5 */(.2+# 0,3
opled ly ils aichilecls.
98

Kaiaganovs ciilique of gIolaI zeio slenned fion
his oveiviev of hov lhe concepl vas hisl oulIined in
}anuaiy 2OO7 ly lhe foinei U.S. Secielaiies of Slale
Heniy Kissingei and Ceoige SchuIlz, foinei Senale
Ained Seivices Connillee Chaiinan San Nunn,
and foinei Secielaiy of Defense, WiIIian Ieiiy. De3
spile iniliaIIy suppoiling vhal he iegaided noie as
an aspiialion lhan a poIicy, Kaiaganov soon ievised
his slance, saying lhal nankind conlinued lo need lhe
nucIeai Svoid of DanocIes.
99
!"# 8/%#8#-. "0, &- #13
fecl leen Iaunched, and lhe aspiialion vas announced
ly U.S. Iiesidenl aiack Olana in Iiague in ApiiI
2OO9 and lioadIy veIconed ly Medvedev and Iulin.
Hovevei, he lhen oljecled lhal in an ailicIe in }anu3
aiy 2O1O, lhe foui sane aulhois caIIed foi incieased
spending lo inciease lhe ieIialiIily and effecliveness
of lhe U.S. nucIeai aisenaI. In his viev, lhis shifl ie3
ecled an acknovIedgenenl lhal lhe U.S. nucIeai
capaliIily had leen undeihnanced in iecenl yeais,
0( '#66 0( 0- 0,8&((&/- ."0. ."# -276#0+ *+/6&1#+0.&/-
genie had appeaied. In lypicaIIy Russian slyIe, he de3
Iighled in lhe senlIance of hypociisy, suggesled U.S.
povei faced a slialegic ciisis foIIoving ils expeiience
in Iiaq and Afghanislan, and nade cIeai lhal if anyone
81
expecled lhe KienIin lo puisue gIolaI zeio, lhey nusl
le lhinking cenluiies ahead.
1OO
Washinglons slialegic
lhinking vas, in his assessnenl, leconing incieas3
ingIy confused, ignoiing lhal India, Iakislan, Noilh
Koiea, and IsiaeI had aII joined lhe nucIeai cIul.
Ralhei lhan consideiing hov lo deaI vilh lhe nev
geoslialegic silualion, lhe Aneiicans piefeiied lo phi3
Iosophize such veapons oul of exislence, Kaiaganov
aigued vhiIe noling lhe nassive inlaIance in favoi
of lhe Uniled Slales lhal gIolaI zeio vouId achieve
lased on Aneiican lechnoIogicaI advances in lhe use
of high-piecision convenlionaI veapons. NATOs in3
leivenlion in lhe aIkans in 1999 and U.S. inleiven3
lion in Iiaq conlined vilh lhe vaiious allenpls lo sile
conponenls of MD in CenliaI and Laslein Luiope aII
fealuied in his asseilion lhal a nev Luiopean secuiily
.+#0.5 &( +#=2&+#,9 *#+"0*( 8/+# ."0- /-#9 0-, #%#-3
luaIIy a poIilicaI-niIilaiy aIIiance lelveen Moscov
and Washinglon oi Russian nenleiship in NATO.
1O1

IinaIIy, on lhe issue of TNW and lheii possilIe ieduc3
lion he highIighled lhe gIaiing lIundei in lhe appeaI
nade ly lhe IoIish and Svedish Ioieign Minisleis,
Radek Sikoiski and CaiI iIdl iespecliveIy, in lheii
ailicIe in Ieliuaiy 2O1O vhich caIIed on Russia lo ie3
nove TNW fion lhe KoIa IeninsuIa and KaIiningiad
OlIasl, even lhough none veie slalioned in lhe Ial3
lei. He iidicuIed lhe vhoIe concepl, poinling oul lhal
vilhdiaving lhese veapons fion Luiopean Russia
vouId haidIy heIp Moscov in ils ieIalions vilh ei3
jing.
1O2
8*#0A%$.'V'.& "B% ?%H$"%.
?&."&- 0 ("/+. *#+&/,9 0 +#(*/-(# ./ ."# 7066 1/+
laclicaI nucIeai ieduclion in Luiope nade ly Sikoi3
ski and iIdl vas lhe suljecl of a scalhing denoIilion
82
&- Krasnaqa Ztczda. Theii pioposaI lhal Russia shouId
vilhdiav ils TNW fion KaIiningiad vas highIighled
0( -/. /-65 */6&.&70665 &-7/++#7.9 (&-7# 0 (&8&60+ 0**#06
vas nol diiecled lovaids lhe Uniled Slales, lul enliie3
Iy aved in as nuch as lhese veapons aie nol lased
lheie. The KoIa IeninsuIa vas liealed diffeienlIy, and
heie lhe aulhoi aigued lhal such an appeaI couId onIy
le consideied if lhe Uniled Slales eIininaled ils navaI
lases in San Diego oi NoifoIk. Il fuilhei asseiled lhal
lhe Uniled Slales, ly lasing lhese veapons on lhe lei3
iiloiies of Luiopean aIIies, had vioIaled lhe hisl and
second ailicIes of lhe NIT, and sliessed lhal such ai3
licIes nusl le foIIoved vilhoul exceplion. The Iisl of
avs in lhe Sikoiski and iIdl hypolheses vas exlen3
sive, and pIaced high vaIue on lhe soveieign iighl of
0-5 (.0.# ./ 1+##65 ,#*6/5 &.( 0+8#, 1/+7#( &- 0-5 '059
pIace, oi line on ils leiiiloiy. The pioposaI vas de3
sciiled as iII-conceived and unfounded, as lhe aulhoi
lhen pioceeded lo oulIine a pIausilIe conpionise:
efoie lhe leginning of ofhciaI discussions on lhis
lhene, Washinglon and Moscov nusl lake lhe sane
slailing posilion in lhe negolialions. |The Uniled
Slales nusl agieej lo vilhdiav aII of ils TNW fion lhe
Luiopean conlinenl and liing lhen lack lo ils ovn
leiiiloiy. Thal is, il nusl do vhal Russia did 15 yeais
ago.
1O3
Duiing lhe 46lh InleinalionaI Secuiily IoIicy Con3
feience in Munich, Ceinany, in Ieliuaiy 2O1O, Rus3
sian Depuly Iiine Minislei Seigei Ivanov, vho Ied
a 3O-peison sliong Russian deIegalion, said lhal il
vas IikeIy lhal foIIoving lhe signing of lhe foIIov-on
START, Washinglon and Moscov vouId cone undei
piessuie lo negoliale joinl ieduclion of lheii laclicaI
nucIeai slockpiIes. Ivanov expiessed a siniIai posilion
83
./ ."0. 0,/*.#, &- ."# Krasnaqa Ztczda ailicIe: ul il
shouId nol le foigollen lhal oui counliy has leen
deaIing vilh lhis piolIen since lhe 199Os. We voIun3
.0+&65 +#,27#, ."&( 0+(#-069 7/-7#-.+0.#, &. /- /2+ /'-
leiiiloiy, ienoved il fion lhe heId, and vaiehoused il
in speciaI sloiage faciIilies. In olhei voids, Moscov
has aIieady assuned lhe noiaI high giound.
1O4
Such lhenes veie ievisiled in a Maich 2O1O ailicIe
ly Vikloi Ruchkin in Krasnaqa Ztczda, enphasizing
hov Russia had vilhdiavn nucIeai veapons fion lhe
leiiiloiies of eIaius, Kazakhslan, and Ukiaine foI3
Ioving lhe coIIapse of lhe Soviel Union. In lhis lhesis,
lhe onus vas on lhe Uniled Slales lo iecipiocale and
foIIov lhis Russian nodeI. Il is peifeclIy cIeai lhal
lhe Uniled Slales nusl uniIaleiaIIy and uncondilion3
aIIy vilhdiav ils TNW fion Luiope. Thal vouId ieaI3
ize lhe aspiialions of lhe Luiopeans, vho viev lhose
TNW as a lhieal lo lheii secuiily, and il vouId aIso
coiiespond lo lhe decIaied inlenlions of Washinglon
lo fiee lhe pIanel of nucIeai veapons, Ruchkin as3
seiled. Nolhing couId le sinpIei: Washinglon nusl
Ieain fion lhe viiluous conducl of Russian nucIeai
poIicy.
1O5
!"# (08# 02."/+ 760&8#, ."0.9 10+ 1+/8 &-3
lending lo vilhdiav lhese veapons fion Luiope,
Washinglon inslead pIanned lo exlend lheii seivice
Iives and nodeinize lhen. He piovided vaiious hg3
uies on lhe nunleis of conlal ieady U.S. TNW lased
in eIgiun, Ceinany, Cieal iilain, HoIIand, IlaIy,
and Tuikey vhich appeaied incongiuous in lhe con3
lexl of lhe vilhdiavaI of Russian veapons fion foi3
nei Soviel RepulIics.
ConsequenlIy, foi a iange of ieasons, Moscov
%&#'( ."# .07.&706 -276#0+ &((2# 0( 8/(.65 0 *+/7#((
il vouId Iike, al Ieasl iniliaIIy, lo olseive as unfoId3
ing lelveen lhe Uniled Slales and ils Luiopean aIIies,
84
feaiing lhal, unIess handIed sensiliveIy, il nay exac3
eilale Lasl Luiopean and aIlic cIanoi foi giealei
defense againsl Russia, oi piovide an oppoilunily lo
fuilhei divide lhe Uniled Slales and ils aIIies in Lu3
iope. ReIuclanlIy diagged inlo liIaleiaI laIks ained al
joinl ieduclion of lhese veapons, Moscov vouId seek
lo pioIong such discussions, al Ieasl unliI lhe oigani3
zalionaI phase of ils convenlionaI iefoin is conpIele
(2O12 al lhe eaiIiesl), and lheieaflei vouId allenpl lo
foin Iinkages lo olhei issues ianging fion MD and
CIL lo ils advocaling a nev Luiopean secuiily liealy.
Indeed, sone Russian connenlalois poiliayed
."# ,/8#(.&7 @#+80- */6&.&706 ,&8#-(&/- 0. *605 &-
pushing foi lhe eIininalion of U.S. nucIeai veapons
on Ceinan leiiiloiy. OiiginaIIy pioposed in lhe faII
of 2OO9 ly Ceinan Ioieign Minislei Cuido Weslei3
veIIe, lhe Ieadei of lhe Iiee Denocialic Iaily in lhe
iuIing coaIilion, vho denanded such vilhdiavaI in a
sepaiale paiagiaph in lhe coaIilion liealy vilh AngeIa
MeikeIs Chiislian Denocials. Addiessing lhe Munich
Secuiily Confeience in Ieliuaiy 2O1O, WesleiveIIe
conhined his inlenlion lo puisue lhe eIininalion of
lhe U.S. nucIeai aisenaI in Ceinany ly 2O13 (lhe end
of lhe iuIing coaIilions peiiod in ofhce). Il vas aIso
noled lhal lhe Iiee Denocialic Iaily is ideoIogicaIIy
opposed lo nucIeai eneigy in any foin and advocale
vilhdiaving Ceinan lioops fion Afghanislan and
lhal MeikeI nosl IikeIy agieed lo conpionise on lhe
&((2# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( &- /+,#+ ./ *+#(#+%# ."# @#+3
nan piesence in Afghanislan.
1O6
WhiIe Russian anaIysls iecognized lhal START
III iepiesenled a key eIenenl vilhin lhe iesel poIicy
0-,9 8/+# &8*/+.0-.659 ."# /-65 1/+28 '&."&- '"&7"
Moscov can hoId discussions vilh Washinglon on an
equaI fooling, lhis liansIaled neilhei inlo conhdence
85
in exlending such discussions lo incIude TNW, noi an
appelile lo hoId such laIks in peipeluily. Iyodoi Luky3
ankov, foi inslance, iighlIy chaiacleiized lhe ApiiI 8,
2O1O, signing of START III as a poIilicaI-niIilaiy con3
pionise aIIoving lolh sides lo cIain success vilhoul
undeinining lhe cIains ly eilhei side, lhough he aIso
pIaced lhe liealy in lhe calegoiy of lhe Iasl of lhe CoId
Wai nodeI agieenenls, puisued ly Washinglon as an
insliunenl ialhei lhan foi ils inliinsic vaIue oi neiil.
Thal piocess, undeivay since lhe 196Os, had diavn
lo a cIose. A siniIai appioach vas unvoikalIe in lhe
ieaIn of TNW, since il couId liing aloul lhe alsuid
ieniIilaiizalion of lhe poIilicaI delale in Luiope, lul
viII do nolhing lo cieale a slalIe secuiily syslen
lheie.
1O7
:0E'([ -GAE'($"'0.,D
As lhe olsessionaI phiase in lhe Russian secuiily
Iexicon has evoIved fion slai-vais, lo nissiIe
defense, so il is IikeIy lhal ve aie aIieady vilness3
ing lhal piogiession lo incIude ovei lhe couise of lhe
nexl decade U.S. gIolaI sliike, and if conpionise
is ieached on MD oi Russian conceins aie aIIayed,
lhe noie pionounced lhe gIolaI sliike phiase viII le3
cone. This ieecls sensilivily vilhin lhe Russian se3
cuiily eIile aloul fuluie slialegic paiily, lhe polenliaI
foi convenlionaI capaliIilies in lhe hands of lhe U.S.
CIolaI Sliike Connand lo sliike anyvheie gIolaIIy,
7/2*6#, '&." 0- 072.# 0'0+#-#(( /1 ."# 7+&(&( &- ."#
doneslic defense indusliy and possilIe dovnvaid
spiiaI foi lhe Russian econony.
A sliaighl hoise liading ovei TNW vouId nosl
IikeIy faiI. Ils polenliaI appeais noie iooled in lhe
poIicy leing Iinked lo a iange of olhei issues as pail
86
of slialegic engagenenl vilh Russia, lul lhis vouId
-##, ./ &-762,# 0- /11#+ /1 0((&(.0-7# '&." 7/-%#-3
lionaI defense iefoin lo assuage conceins on lhe pail
of sone NATO nenleis.
Thus fai, Seidyukovs iefoin agenda has leen in3
pIenenled iapidIy and vilh signihcanl achievenenls.
!"#(# 0+# 8/(.65 0,8&-&(.+0.&%# 07"&#%#8#-.(9 (27"
as lhe liansilion lo lhe peinanenl ieadiness liigades.
Yel, lhe chaIIenges ahead aie fai deepei, and aie noie
connecled vilh lhe vaIue of lhe Russian slale: ils peo3
pIe. Moie lhan lhe inlioduclion of any nev veapons
oi equipnenl, lhe fuluie of lhe Russian ained foices
'&66 7#-.#+ /- '"#."#+ ."# (.0.# 70- "0+-#(( 0-, ,#3
veIop a nev geneialion of Russian ofhceis, and foi
each individuaI lhal viII enlaiI seiving as an exan3
pIe, deIegaling aulhoiily, liinging lhe lesl oul of his
suloidinales, encouiaging a cuIluie of inilialive and
piolIen soIving: in shoil |cadcrsnip.
Russia is onIy in lhe eaiIy slages of convenlionaI
defense iefoin, a piocess IikeIy lo enduie foi nany
5#0+(9 -/. 6#0(. &- .#+8( /1 ."# .+0-(&.&/- ./'0+,( -#.3
voik-cenliic vaifaie capaliIilies. Il is cIeai lhal nany
ciilicaI issues aie sliII in lhe neIling pol, and aie un3
IikeIy lo vilness any speedy iesoIulion. Consequenl3
659 ."&( ,/8#(.&7 ,#1#-(# +#1/+89 7/2*6#, '&." ."#
China facloi, nakes il unIikeIy lhal TNW ieduclion
cuiienlIy piesenls a ieaIislic oplion. Seidyukov and
Makaiov, piolalIy in an effoil lo shoie up suppoil foi
lhe iefoin, have undoulledIy exaggeialed ils success
lo dale and peihaps lheie viII le a need, al sone poinl
deened as poIilicaIIy safe, lo adnil lhal najoi lasks
sliII Iie ahead denanding noie line. In lhis sensilive
conlexl, any allenpl lo pIace TNW ieduclion on lhe
agenda iisks uniaveIing lhal iefoin, possilIy danag3
ing lhe iesel in U.S.-Russian ieIalions, and nissing po3
87
lenliaI defense coopeialion oppoilunilies lased on lhe
coIIaleiaI danage lo lhe cuiienl convenlionaI defense
iefoin: fion a Russian peispeclive il nay iepiesenl
lhe coiiecl poIicy lul al lhe viong line.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 I
1. Aspecls of lhe foIIoving anaIysis of lhe Iong-lein chaI3
Ienges facing Russian defense iefoin is lased on lhe aulhois
piesenlalion found in Russian Defense Refoin: Conliadiclions,
ChaIIenges and ReconcepluaIizalion, Iiague, Czech RepulIic:
Inslilule of InleinalionaI ReIalions, May 27, 2O1O.
2. DaIe Heispiing and Rogei N. McDeinoll, Seidyukov Iio3
noles Syslenic Russian MiIilaiy Refoin, Orois, Spiing 2O1O.
3. DaniyaI Ayzenshladl and YeIizavela Suinacheva, The Al3
khaz-IsiaeIi Refoin of lhe Russian Ained Ioices, Novenlei 19,
2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.gazc|a.ru.
4. Vikloi aianels, The Ainy WiII e Celling lhe Lalesl
Weapons and Lodgings and WiII e Rid of Hazing: Dniliy Med3
vedev Has IoinuIaled Iive IiincipIes of DeveIopnenl of lhe
Ained Ioices, Kcnscnc|s|aqa Pratda, Oclolei 1, 2OO8.
5. Yuiiy CaviiIov, CeneiaIs Reduclion: They WiII Reduce
lhe Ained Ioices and Change Theii Look, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a,
Oclolei 15, 2OO8, MikhaiI aialanov, Refoin of lhe Conlal
Spiiil, Kcnncrsan|-V|as|, Oclolei 2O, 2OO8, The Ainy Needs lo
le Iiolecled fion DiIellanles, Oclolei 22, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.u|rc.ru9 Bpnn Tpnqonon, paxxax peqopxnponannn
oopyennix Cn Ioccnncxon uepepann. Ienepaon c1ane1
xenime, en1enan1on - 6oime9 8ccuuc-npcuu:cuuuu xqptcp9
N 42 (258), ox1n6pn 22-28, 2OO8 iopa, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arcnitc.
tp|-ncus.ru/ar|ic|c.asp?pr_sign=arcnitc.2008.258.ar|ic|cs.arnq_02,
Yuii Tiifonov, V iankah iefoiniiovaniya Vooiuzhennih SiI
Rossiiskoi Iedeiacii. CeneiaIov (.0-#. 8#-("#9 6#&.#-0-./% -
loI("#9 Vccnnc Prcnqsn|cnnqq Kurqcr, VoI. 42, No. 258, Oclolei
22-28, 2OO8.
88
6. aianels, The Ainy WiII e Celling lhe Lalesl Weapons.
7. NikoIay Ioioskov, MiIilaiy Aiiangenenls, Vrcnqa Nc-
tcs|cq, Oclolei 8, 2OO8.
8. CaviiIov, CeneiaIs Reduclion, |oid.
9. |oid.
1O. Inleiviev vilh Seidyukov, Rcssiqa, No. 24, Maich 6, 2O1O.
11. CINC Ciound Tioops Iiess Confeience on Nev ii3
gades, Ainanenl IIans, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 26, 2O1O.
12. |oid.
13. apnx Coonien, oennan peqopxa 2OO9-2O12 iopon,
Hc-aucucc 8ccuucc Occ-pcuuc, pexa6pn 12, 2OO8 iopa, avaiIalIe
1+/8 ntc.ng.ru/fcrccs/2008-12-12/1_rcfcrn.n|n|, Vadin SoIovev,
Voennaya iefoina 2OO9-2O12 godov, Nczatisincqc Vcqcnncqc
Ooczrcniqc, Decenlei 12, 2OO8.
14. Aiound 3O Ieicenl of Russian Aii Ioice Ofhceis lo le
Disnissed Duiing Refoin, |n|crfax, Ieliuaiy 11, 2OO9.
15. Inan Hnxoaennu opo6ien, aepnn Aexcanpponnu
Knceen, Hepexop Cyxohy1nix noncx na 6pniapnyn c1pyx3
1ypy xax 1ah honimennn nx xanenpochoco6noc1n9 8ccuuan
Muc:t, Hoxep 2, 2O1O, Ivan N. Voiolyev and VaIeiiy >. KiseIev,
Ieiehod Suhopulnih voisk na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- Ieiehod Suhopulnih voisk na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- Suhopulnih voisk na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- Suhopulnih voisk na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- voisk na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- voisk na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- na liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- liigadnuu sliukluiu kak elap po- sliukluiu kak elap po- sliukluiu kak elap po- kak elap po- kak elap po- #.0* */3 #.0* */3 */3 */3
%&("#-&50 &" naneviosposolnosli, Vccnnaqa Mqs|9 No. 2, 2O1O,
Majoi-CeneiaI (Rel.) Ivan Voiolyev and CoIoneI VaIeiiy AIek3
sandiovich KiseIev, Ciound Tioops Tiansilion lo iigade Sliuc3
luie as a Ihase of Inpioving Theii ManeuveialiIily, Vcqcnnaqa
Mqs|, No. 2, 2O1O.
16. The Iack Sea IIeel is eing Denoled, Mcs|cts|iq Kcn-
csnc|c|s, Ieliuaiy 11, 2OO9.
17. AdniiaIs Suffei Ieai of lhe Sea, Navy Main Connand
Cannol le Moved fion Moscov lo lhe aIlic, Kcnncrsan|, >*+&6
22, 2OO9.
89
18. nx1op Bs6amen, Ienepai homn x oqnepax. Mn- nx1op Bs6amen, Ienepai homn x oqnepax. Mn3
no6oponi naunnae1 pas:ncnn1eino-hpohaianpnc1cxyn xax3
hannn9 Hc-aucucc 8ccuucc Occ-pcuuc, non6pn 28, 2OO8 iopa9
avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/fcrccs/2008-11-28/1_gcncra|q.n|n|, Vikloi
Yuzlashev, CeneiaIi poshIi k ohceian. Minoloiony nachinael
iazyasnileIno-piopagandislskuu kanpaniu, Nczatisincqc Vcqcn-
ncqc Oocrzrcniqc, Novenlei 28, 2OO8.
19. Iov lo Reai Seivices, Novenlei 26, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.gazc|a.ru.
2O. Ti na hy1n hpeo6pasonannn, Kpacnan snespa, 18 non- Ti na hy1n hpeo6pasonannn, Kpacnan snespa, 18 non3
6pn 2OO8 iopa, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rcds|ar.ru/2008/11/18_11/2_01.
n|n|, TiI na puli pieoliazovanii, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Novenlei
18, 2OO8.
21. Vikloi aianels, Chief of CeneiaI Slaff NikoIay Makaiov:
'Having Connanded Iapei Reginenls, Losl Theii eaiings in
ReaI Wai, Kcnscnc|s|aqa Pratda, Decenlei 18, 2OO8.
22. Russia lo CIose 22 MiIilaiy HospilaIs, Cul Ovei 1O,OOO
MedicaI Ofhcei Iosls, Inleifax, May 27, 2OO9, MiIilaiy Refoin
2OO9-2O13, Nczatisincqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc, }anuaiy 1, 2OO9,
Defense Minisliy lo CIose Ofhcei }ols in MiIilaiy Media, |n|cr-
fax-AVN cn|inc, Decenlei 3, 2OO9.
23. Culs in Russian MiIilaiy Highei LducalionaI LslalIish3
nenls WiII Slail in 2OO9, |n|crfax, Decenlei 23, 2OO8.
24. Russian CCS quizzed aloul MiIilaiy Refoin, |n|crfax9
}une 7, 2OO9.
25. Russia: Texl of Medvedev Speech lo Defense oaid, Maich
6, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru.
26. Rogei N. McDeinoll, The Refoin of Russias Conven- Rogei N. McDeinoll, The Refoin of Russias Conven3
lionaI Ained Ioices: IiolIens, ChaIIenges and IoIicy InpIica3
lions, (foilhconing).
27. |oid.
9O
28. Iulin Chaiis Meeling in Voionezh lo discuss Re-equip3
ping lhe Russian Ained Ioices, |n|crfax, }anuaiy 19, 2O1O, He- He3
pon L.A, Hepenepsen A.. O hepchex1nnnon nqponon cnc1e- L.A, Hepenepsen A.. O hepchex1nnnon nqponon cnc1e- .A, Hepenepsen A.. O hepchex1nnnon nqponon cnc1e- A, Hepenepsen A.. O hepchex1nnnon nqponon cnc1e- , Hepenepsen A.. O hepchex1nnnon nqponon cnc1e3
xe cnnsn oopyennix Cn Ioccnncxon uepepann, 8ccuuan
Muc:t, noxep 3, xap1 2OO8, c1p. 7-11, L. A. Ieiov, A.V. Ieievei- , L. A. Ieiov, A.V. Ieievei3
zev, O peispeclivnoi cifiovoi sislene svyazi Vooiuzhennih SiI
Rossiiskoi Iedeiacii, Vccnnaqa Mqs|, No. 3, Maich 2OO8, Aex- Aex3
canpp Konppa1ien, Honie nosxonoc1n pn nonoio o6nxa,
8ccuuc-npcuu:cuuuu xqptcp, noxep 45, non6pn 18-24, 2OO9
iopa, AIeksandi Kondialyev, Novie voznozhnesli dIya novogo
olIika, Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqq Kurqcr, No. 45, Novenlei 18-24,
2OO9.
29. Inan Kapen, Cnnsi popoioio c1on1. Hena xoxhex1a
cpepc1n yhpanennn pn 6pniapi - 8 xnnappon py6en9
8ccuuc-npcuu:cuuuu xqptcp, noxep 3, nnnapn 27 - qenpan 2,
2O1O iopa, avaiIalIe fion uuu.tp|-ncus.ru/3-319/qq/10379, Ivan
Kaiev, Svyaz doiogogo sloil. Cena konpIekla siedslv upiav3
Ieniya dIya liigadi - 8 niIIiaidov iulIei, Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqq
Kurqcr, No. 3, }anuaiy 27-Ieliuaiy 2, 2O1O.
3O. Denis TeInanov, Russian Ainy Tiansfoined inlo 85
MoliIe iigades: CeneiaI Slaff lo Offei Nel-Cenliic Waifaie lo
MiIilaiy Sludenls, Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 22, 2O1O.
31. acnnn Mnxanonnu 5ypenox, 5asnc ce1een1pnue- acnnn Mnxanonnu 5ypenox, 5asnc ce1een1pnue3
cxnx nonn - ohepeenne, nn1eex1, nnnonann9 Hc-aucucc
8ccuucc Occ-pcuuc, Ahpen 2, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/ccn-
ccp|s/2010-04-02/1_oazis.n|n|, VasiIii M. uienok, azis selecen3
liicheskih voyn - opeiezhenie, inleIIecl, innovacii, Nczatisincqc
Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc, ApiiI 2, 2O1O/ VasiIiy uienok, asis foi
Nelvoik-Cenliic Wais: Anlicipalion, InleIIecl, Innovalions, Nc-
zatisincqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc, ApiiI 2, 2O1O.
32. |oid.
33. Aulhois enphasis.
34. uienok, asis foi Nelvoik-Cenliic Wais.
35. n1ann Hixon, 5nxpni Ana1onn Ceppnxona.
Houexy conpexennie noopyennie cni nenosxoni 6es
ipapancxoio Mnnnc1epc1na o6oponi9 8ccuuc-npcuu:cuuuu
91
xqptcp, noxep 4, qenpan 3-9, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.tp|-ncus.
ru/4-320/2009-05-02-13-24-27/10988, VilaIii ShIykov, Iilzkig
AnaloIiya Seidyukova. Iochenu sovienennie vooiuzhennie siIi
nevoznogni lez giaddanskogo Minisleislva oloioni, Vcqcnnc
Prcnqsn|cnnqq Kurqcr, No. 4, Ieliuaiy 3-9, 2O1O, VilaIiy ShIykov,
Iilzkiieg of AnaloIiy Seidyukov, Vcqcnnc Prcnqsn|cnnqq Kurq-
cr, Ieliuaiy 19, 2O1O.
36. Anong lhe ieconnendalions nade in lhe SVOI iepoil,
vhich have nol leen adopled ly Seidyukov aie iesuloidinal3
ing lhe CRU fion lhe CeneiaI Slaff lo lhe defense ninisliy, in3
sisling lhal aII ofhceis have a hisl degiee lefoie connencing
ofhcei liaining, fuilhei liansfoining lhe defense indusliies,
and iefoining lhe secuiily sliucluies. See Vcqcnncqc s|rci|c|s|tc
i ncdcrinza|siqa Vccruzncnnq|n si| russiq (The DeveIopnenl and
Modeinizalion of lhe Russian Ained Ioices), Moscov, Rus3
sia: SVOI, ApiiI, 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.stcp.ru/|itc/na|cria|s.
asp?n_id=8481cr_id=9303.
37. Aulhois enphasis. See ShIykov, Iilzkiieg of AnaloIiy
Seidyukov.
38. |oid.
39. Russian Defense Minisliy RuIes Oul Need foi SpeciaI
Ainy IoIice, |n|crfax, ApiiI 6, 2O1O.
4O. CINC Ciound Tioops Iiess Confeience on Nev ii3
gades, Ainanenl IIans, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 26, 2O1O.
41. WiII Have lo Seive Wilhoul Conliacl, |ztcs|iqa, Ieliu3
aiy 26, 2O1O.
42. MiIilaiy oaid, ||nc Mcs|tq, Ieliuaiy 2O, 2O1O.
43. Voiolyev vas loin in 1922. Duiing WoiId Wai II, he
seived as a cadel, vas pionoled lo najoi, and connanded a iie
lallaIion. He vas avaided lhe Svechin piize of lhe Acadeny of
MiIilaiy Sciences in 2OOO foi his seiies of voiks on laclics. He is
lhe aulhoi of noie lhan 2OO voiks on laclics and opeialionaI ail,
and is a piofessoi al lhe ained foice conlined ains acadeny.
Voiolyev and KiseIev, Ciound Tioops Tiansilion lo iigade
Sliucluie.
92
44. |oid.
45. |oid.
46. Vcqcnnaqa Dc||rina Rcssiqs|cq |cdcra|sii (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc
cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
scrf.gct.ru/dccuncn|s/33.n|n|.
47. Quadrcnnia| Dcfcnsc Rcticu 2010, avaiIalIe fion uuu.dc-
fcnsc.gct/qdr/, 46lh Munich Secuiily Confeience, Ieliuaiy 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.sccuri|qccnfcrcncc.dc/Ccnfcrcncc-2010.nucncnn
crsicncrnci|.0.n|n|?c|=1.
48. MikhaiI Tsypkin, Whals Nev in Russias Nev MiIilaiy
Docliine` Radic |rcc |urcpc/Radic |iocr|q, Ieliuaiy 27, 2O1O.
49. Inleiviev vilh CeneiaI Leonid Ivashov ly V. Telekin, Sc-
gcdnqa, Ieliuaiy 25, 2O1O.
5O. AIeksey NikoIskiy, Nev Woids foi OId Thieals. Nev
Veision of MiIilaiy Docliine Does Nol Diffei IundanenlaIIy
Iion 2OOO Docunenl~Sonelhing Thal LIiciled Negalive Re3
sponse Iion NATO, Vcdcncs|i, Ieliuaiy 15, 2O1O.
51. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
52. |oid.
53. |oid.
54. |oid.
55. AIeksandi Khianchikhin, Conpaiison of Nev MiIilaiy
Docliine vilh lhe MiIilaiy Docliine of 2OOO, Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cn-
nqq Kurqcr, Ieliuaiy 18, 2O1O.
56. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
57. Repoiling in |TAR-TASS, |n|crfax, 0-, Gazc|a, Decenlei
8-1O, 2OO8, Inleiviev vilh Ainy-CeneiaI Caieev, Nczatisincqc
Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc, Decenlei 12, 2OO8, Russian Defense Min3
93
islei, CeneiaI Slaff al Odds Ovei Refoin, Docliine, Mcs|cts|q
Kcnscnc|c|s, Ieliuaiy 15, 2OO7, IailiaI Texl of Ainy-CeneiaI
Caieevs Repoil on Nev Russian MiIilaiy Docliine, Vccnnc-Prc-
nqsn|cnnq Kuriqcr, }anuaiy 24, 2OO7.
58. Vikloi Myasnikov, Seiious Discussion of lhe Nev Doc3
liine Inpends: lhe Acadeny of MiIilaiy Sciences WiII e Calh3
eiing foi ils AnnuaI Confeience in }anuaiy, Nczatisincqc Vcq-
cnncqc Ooczrcniqc, }anuaiy 9, 2OO7, Vadin SoIovyev, Theie Aie
Moie Lnenies and lhe Lnenies Have econe Moie Aggiessive,
Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 1O, 2OO7.
59. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
6O. Ialiushev Inleiviev, |n|crfax, Oclolei 13, 2OO9, Secuiily
CounciIs Ialiushev Inleivieved on MiIilaiy Docliine, |ztcs|iqa,
Oclolei 14, 2OO9.
61. |oid.
62. AvaiIalIe fion uuu.|cn|a.ru, Oclolei 15, 2OO9.
63. Aulhoi inleivievs vilh CenliaI Asian dipIonals, Decen- Aulhoi inleivievs vilh CenliaI Asian dipIonals, Decen3
lei 2OO9.
64. Iundil Says Ialiushev Renaiks SignaI Loveied NucIeai
!"+#("/6,9 Russ|aqa |iniqa, Sl. Ieleisluig, Oclolei 14, 2OO9.
65. Rcsoa||, Oclolei 14, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rcsoa||.
ru/2009/10/14/680419.n|n|.
66. Ialiushev: Nev MiIilaiy Docliine lo SlipuIale Iieenp3
live NucIeai Sliikes, Oclolei 14, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.sc-
gcdnqa.ru.
67. Nev MiIilaiy Docliine UnIikeIy lo Iiovide foi Iieven3
live Sliikes, Vcdcncs|i, Oclolei 9, 2OO9, KienIin 'Souice Oul3
Iines Nev NalionaI Secuiily Slialegy, ApiiI 29, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.gazc|a.ru.
68. Russian Defense Minislei Repoils lo Duna on MiIilaiy
Refoin, Ztczda Tc|ctisicn, Ieliuaiy 11, 2OO9, CCS Makaiov
94
Visils Alu Dhali Ains Shov, TaIks of Nev MiIilaiy Docliine,
Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 25, 2OO9.
69. Krasnaqa Ztczda, May 14, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rcd-
s|ar.ru/2009/05/1405/105.n|n|.
7O. Russian Secuiily CounciI Discusses Iuluie MiIilaiy Doc3
liine, |TAR-TASS, Augusl 5, 2OO9.
71. Rogei N. McDeinoll, The Resliucluiing of lhe Modein
Russian Ainy, ]curna| cf S|atic Mi|i|arq S|udics, VoI. 22, No. 4,
2OO9.
72. VilaIiy, ShIykov, Seidyukovs Iilzkiieg, Rcssiqa t G|c-
oa|ncq Pc|i|i|c, No. 6, Novenlei-Decenlei 2OO9.
73. MikhaiI Raslopshin, Voyennaya MysI Veisus lhe Cen3
eiaI Slaff, Nczatisincqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc, Maich 31, 2O1O,
Yuiiy oiodin, iigade Iiies Wilhoul a Miss, Krasnaqa Ztczda,
Novenlei 23, 2OO9, Yuiiy oiodin, Iiohciency Tesl, Krasnaqa
Ztczda, Novenlei 23, 2OO9, VIadinii Senenchenko:, Whal lhe
Inspeclion ReveaIed, Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqq Kurqcr, Novenlei
2O, 2OO9, AIeksandi Saigin and Denis TeInanov, An Ainy of
Unils Thal Aie Raled 'Salisfacloiy, Gazc|a, Novenlei 12, 2OO9,
Russian MiIilaiy Unils Readiness Tine Cul lo One Houi-Ma3
kaiov, |TAR-TASS, Novenlei 17, 2OO9.
74. }acol, W. Kipp, MisliaI Iiocuienenl Divides Russian
Defense Leadeiship, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, VoI. 6, Issue 225, De3
cenlei 8, 2OO9.
75. Cennadiy Miianovich, MiIilaiy Science: Assignnenl foi
Tonoiiov, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Decenlei 21, 2OO9.
76. |oid.
77. Lnphasis ly aulhoi.
78. Lx-Secuiily OfhciaI: Russia ShouId Keep Inpioving Slia3
legic Ioices, |n|crfax, ApiiI 9, 2O1O.
79. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
95
8O. |oid.
81. AIeksandi KonovaIov, Take Tendei Caie of lhe Havks,
Ogcnc|, Ieliuaiy 25, 2O1O, Rogei N. McDeinoll, Nev Russian
MiIilaiy Docliine Opposes NATO LnIaigenenl,|urasia Dai|q
Mcni|cr, VoI. 7, Issue 27, Ieliuaiy 9, 2O1O, }acol. W. Kipp, Med3
vedev Appioves Nev Russian MiIilaiy Docliine,|urasia Dai|q
Mcni|cr, VoI. 7, Issue 26, Ieliuaiy 8, 2O1O.
82. The RoIe of TNW on MuIlipuipose Sulnaiines Sel lo
Ciov, R|A Nctcs|i, Augusl 23, 2OO9.
83. AIeksandi Ailenyev, Washinglon Coes foi TaclicaI Re3
duclion, Ieliuaiy 6, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.gazc|a.ru.
84. Andiey Teiekhov, The Uniled Slales May Wilhdiav Ils
TNW fion Luiope, Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, ApiiI 28, 2O1O.
85. Dvoikin is a iecognized aulhoiily on lhese issues. He vas
one of lhe aulhois of aII najoi docunenls ieIaled lo lhe Sliale3
gic Rockel Ioices (SRI). He vas an expeil invoIved in piepaiing
SALT II, lhe INI Tiealy, START I, and START II. He nade a sig3
nihcanl conliilulion lo Soviel and Russian slialegic ains ieduc3
lion laIks, and fion 1962 lo 2OO1 he voiked in lhe 4lh CenliaI
Reseaich Inslilule of lhe Soviel and Russian Defense Minisliies,
heading lhe inslilule in 1993-2OO1.
86. |oid.
87. Chief Of Russias CeneiaI Slaff lo Visil US Ovei Nukes,
MissiIe Defenses, |n|crfax-AVN On|inc, ApiiI 21, 2O1O.
88. MiIes Ionpei, WiIIian Iollei, and NikoIai Sokov, Sur-
tita|. G|coa| Pc|i|ics and S|ra|cgq, VoI. 52, No. 1, Ieliuaiy-Maich
2O1O, pp. 75-96.
89. }oshua HandIei, The 1991-1992 INIs and lhe LIininalion,
Sloiage and Secuiily of TNW, in iian AIexandei and AIislaii
MiIIai, eds., TNl9 Washinglon DC: iasseys Inc., 2OO3, Roleil S.
Noiiis and Hans M. Kiislensen, Russian NucIeai Ioices, 2O1O,
8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, }anuaiy/Ieliuaiy 2O1O, p. 79, US
96
NucIeai DeveIopnenl Conceins Russia, |n|crfax, Novenlei 26,
2OO3, Russian MiIilaiy Chief Defends Nonslialegic Nukes,
|n|crfax, Decenlei 17, 2OO8, Andiea Callilas, Non-slialegic
NucIeai Weapons: IiolIens of Dehnilion, in }effiey A. Laisen
and Kuil }. KIingenleigei, eds., Ccn|rc||ing Ncn-S|ra|cgic Nuc|car
lcapcns. Oos|ac|cs and Oppcr|uni|ics, Washinglon, DC: U.S. Aii
Ioice, Inslilule foi NalionaI Secuiily Sludies, }uIy 2OOO, Roleil
S. Noiiis and Hans M. Kiislensen, NucIeai Nolelook: Russian
NucIeai Ioices, 2OO9, 8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, May/}une
2OO9, WiIIian }. Ieiiy, Chaiinan and }anes R. SchIesingei, Vice
Chaiinan, Ancricas S|ra|cgic Pcs|urc, The IinaI Repoil of lhe
CongiessionaI Connission on lhe Slialegic Iosluie of lhe Uniled
Slales, Washinglon, DC, ApiiI 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.usip.crg/
j|cs/Ancricas_S|ra|cgic_Pcs|urc_Au|n_|d.pdf, Connenlaiy ly
Seigey Kaiaganov, The Lcho of lhe Iasl Wai oi Slialegic Confu3
sion, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, Maich 17, 2O1O.
9O. Too LaiIy To Discuss Reduclion Of TaclicaI NucIeai Ai3
nanenls-Lxpeil, |TAR-TASS, Maich 5, 2O1O.
91. US Loveiing RoIe of NucIeai Weapons in Docliine e3
cause of Supeiioiily in ConvenlionaI Ains, |n|crfax-AVN On|inc9
ApiiI 19, 2O1O.
92. ConvenlionaI Waiheads on Slialegic Caiiieis Aie Thieal
lo InleinalionaI Secuiily-RVSN Connandei, |n|crfax, Oclolei
12, 2OO9, Ciealion of CIolaI Sliike Connand in US Aii Ioice
'a Thieal-Russian Aii Ioice Connandei-in-Chief, |n|crfax, >23
gusl 11, 2OO9.
93. ConvenlionaI Ains Iaiily Needed To Discuss TNW,
|TAR-TASS, ApiiI 6, 2O1O.
94. Inleiviev vilh Seigey Rogov ly AIeksandi IioIov, The
Tiealy Has Moie IIuses Than Minuses, Krasnaqa Ztczda, >*+&6
7, 2O1O.
95. Seigei Kaiaganov, NucIeai Iiee WoiId is a Dangeious
Concepl Thal Oughl lo le Alandoned, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, >*+&6
23, 2O1O.
96. |oid.
97
97. |oid.
98. Kaiaganov, The Lcho of lhe Iasl Wai,
99. Ioi noie delaiI on lhe pIace of nucIeai deleiience in Rus3
sian slialegic lhoughl and lhe high vaIue pIaced on lhese veap3
ons ly lhe Si|cti|i, see MikhaiI Tsypkin, Russian IoIilics, IoIicy-
Making and Aneiican MissiIe Defence, |n|crna|icna| Affairs, VoI.
85, No. 4, 2OO9, pp. 781-799.
1OO. Kaiaganov, The Lcho of lhe Iasl Wai oi Slialegic Confu3
sion, Kissingei, SchuIlz, Nunn, and Ieiiy ailicIes, avaiIalIe fion
cn|inc.usj.ccn/puo|ic/ar|ic|c_prin|/S8120036422673589947.n|n|9
cn|inc.usj.ccn/ar|ic|c/S81000142405274870415280457462834428273
5008.n|n|, Rogei N. McDeinoll, Russian AnaIysls Queslion lhe
VialiIily of lhe 'Resel, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, VoI. 7, Issue 61,
Maich 3O, 2O1O.
1O1. Kaiaganov, The Lcho of lhe Iasl Wai oi Slialegic Con3
fusion.
1O2. Radek Sikoiski and CaiI iIdl, Nexl, lhe TaclicaI Nukes,
Tnc Ncu Ycr| Tincs, Ieliuaiy 1, 2O1O.
1O3. VIadinii Kozin, TNW: III-Conceived Messages fion lhe
Ioieign Minisleis of IoIand and Sveden, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Iel3
iuaiy 21, 2O1O.
1O4. Yuiiy CaviiIov, Celling lo Zeio: Russia and lhe Uniled
Slales Aie Iiepaied To Iighl Togelhei foi lhe ConpIele LIinina3
lion of NucIeai Weapons, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 13, 2O1O.
1O5. Vikloi Ruchkin, OId onls and Nev IiolIens, Kras-
naqa Ztczda, Maich 16, 2O1O.
1O6. Iedoi Lukyanov, Lasl Tiealy: Russia and Uniled Slales
Have Lxhausled IolenliaI foi Tvo-Way NucIeai Disainanenl,
Vrcnqa Nctcs|cq, Maich 3O, 2O1O, Kaiaganov, The Lcho of lhe
Iasl Wai oi Slialegic Confusion.
1O7. Lukyankov, The Lasl Tiealy.
99
6L4:=82 S
5367842 984:;5! -5 23!!-45 !=24=8OR
45? ?;6=2-58
4.+#%' !B0*G'1B'.
-5=2;?36=-;5
The Russian Iedeialion (RI) ienains in posses3
sion of lhe voiIds Iaigesl nucIeai aisenaI. Despile lhe
eIininalion of sone key foundalions of supeipovei
iivaIiy, nosl nolalIy lhe inlense ideoIogicaI schisn
lelveen Connunisn and Weslein-lype denociacies
lhal spaiked and fueIed lhe CoId Wai, lhe RI Sliale3
gic NucIeai Ioices (SNI) conlinue lo laigel lhe Uniled
Slales and ils aIIies. WhiIe lhe signihcanl disequi3
Iiliiun in econonic, lechnoIogicaI, niIilaiy, povei
piojeclion, and olhei capaliIilies lelveen lhe Uniled
Slales and lhe RI conlinues lo expand, Russia ienains
lhe onIy gIolaI povei piesenling an exislenliaI lhieal
lo lhe Uniled Slales.
Il is nol lhe veapons, lul lhe peopIe possessing
lhen vho kiII. DelaiIed infoinalion aloul lhe con3
posilion, conlal ieadiness, and pioceduies of RI SNI
is inpoilanl.
1
Hovevei, undeislanding lhe naluie of
lhe Russian poIilicaI iegine, lhe nenlaIily of Russian
Ieadeis, and lhe undeipinnings of Russian nucIeai
slialegy as ieecled in Russian docliinaI docunenls
805 "#6* 0((#(( '"#."#+ /+ -/. ."0. 7/2-.+5 '&66 #%#+
iesoil lo lhe uIlinale veapon of desliuclion.
Soviel and Russian niIilaiy and nucIeai docliines
ieecl lhe Ieadeiships lhieal assessnenls, peicep3
lions of lhe slienglhs and veaknesses of lhe niIilaiy,
nalionaI goaIs and lasks foi lhe niIilaiy oiganizalion
1OO
of lhe slale, and olhei faclois. To lhe exlenl lhey aie
nol used foi piopaganda oi disinfoinalion puiposes,
lhey nay piovide insighls inlo disagieenenls and
conpeliliveness vilhin poIicynaking eIiles. Docliines
usuaIIy conpiise cIassihed conponenls and aie ac3
conpanied ly decIaialoiy and inleipielive slalenenls
."0. 760+&15 /+9 1/+ ."0. 80..#+9 7/8*6&70.# ."# 2-,#+3
slanding of lheii inlenl and puipose.
This chaplei deaIs vilh lhe evoIulion of Russian
lhinking and poIicy on nucIeai-ieIaled issues. Il aIso
seeks lo undeisland nolivalions of lhe Russian Iead3
#+("&* &- &.( 7/-.&-2#, +#6&0-7# /- -276#0+ '#0*/-(
and nainlaining an adveisaiiaI posluie lovaids
olhei nucIeai poveis, especiaIIy lhe Uniled Slales.
Iasl and cuiienl docliinaI docunenls aie sludied lo
piovide lhe lackgiound of evoIving nucIeai veapons
piogians, niIilaiy-poIilicaI ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled
Slales, peiceived defense and secuiily lhieals, and ie3
quiienenls.
2

ChionoIogicaIIy and sulslanliveIy, lhe nain en3
phasis is on lhe independence peiiod of Russia fion
Decenlei 1991 lo lhe piesenl. Hovevei, a iefeience
lo lhe Soviel peiiod is appiopiiale. Aflei aII, nosl of
lhe slialegic veapon syslens Russia possesses loday
veie ciealed duiing lhe Soviel peiiod. Moieovei,
vhiIe Russian Ieadeis invaiialIy undeiIine sulslan3
live diffeiences lelveen lhe Soviel iegine and lhe
-#' (/7&/3#7/-/8&7 0-, */6&.&706 #-%&+/-8#-. &-
conlenpoiaiy Russia, lheie aie sliII nany siniIaiilies
lelveen cuiienl Russian and foinei Soviel lhinking
and lehavioi. To a Iaige exlenl, lhe RI hnds ilseIf in
a geopoIilicaI silualion iesenlIing lhal of lhe Soviel
Union. Despile consideialIe changes in lhe sliucluie
and conposilion of lhe luieauciacies iesponsilIe foi
lhe deveIopnenl and inpIenenlalion of Russian niIi3
1O1
laiy and foieign poIicy, nany poIilicaI appoinlees and
piofessionaIs cuiienlIy in chaige of lhis poIicy have
sliong lackgiounds in lhe Soviel syslen.
3

!;M-8= 8Z:82-8568< 5367842 984:;5!
45? 42Q! 6;5=2;7 -5 =L8 :32!3-= ;@
:42-=R
Slailing in lhe eaiIy-195Os, lhe Soviel Ieadeiship,
diiven ly lhe need lo luy line lo liidge lhe lechno3
IogicaI gap in nucIeai veapons and deIiveiy syslens
vilh lhe Uniled Slales, pul a huge effoil inlo disaina3
nenl negolialions and delales al lhe Uniled Nalions
(UN). They iegaided lhese effoils as a vilaI neans of
sIoving dovn, if nol ieveising, lhe U.S. piogiess in de3
veIoping advanced veapon syslens vhiIe lhe Union
of Soviel SociaIisl RepulIics (USSR) acceIeialed ils
ovn veapons of nass desliuclion (WMD) piogians.
NucIeai disainanenl, oi ialhei lhe poIilics of nucIeai
disainanenl, had aIso lecone a cenliaI conponenl of
lhe peacefuI conpelilion of opposile sociaI syslens
pionoled ly lhe connunisl iegine.
Iieiy denagogue Nikila Khiushchev pul his
unique slanp on nucIeai disainanenl al lhe UN ly
pioposing in 1959 a palenlIy unieaIislic, lul ideoIogi3
caIIy enlicing, pIan of geneiaI and conpIele disai3
nanenl lhal vouId slail vilh lhe nucIeai-nissiIe
aisenaIs of lhe Soviel Union and lhe Uniled Slales.
Iion lhal line on, lhe Soviels oflen legan negolialing
piocesses ly Iaunching inilialives lhal had IillIe oi no
chance of acceplance ly lhe opposile side lul couId
scoie lig in lhe vai of ideas, pailicuIaiIy anong
lhe piogiessive voiId pulIic opinion, e.g., lhe an3
livai and anlinucIeai gioups in lhe Wesl. AddilionaI
advanlages of lhis nelhodoIogy veie lo diav oppo3
1O2
nenls inlo pioliacled laigaining and lo evenluaIIy
ieach conpionise ly denonslialing exiliIily vhiIe
Ioveiing lhe oiiginaI excessive denands.
4
Khiushchevs loId peace inilialives veie cIeaiIy
piedicaled on lhe iapid piogiess of lhe Soviel nucIeai
and nissiIe piogians. As lhe iesuIl of inlense effoils,
lhe Soviels had ly Oclolei 1957 aIieady pul inlo oilil
lhe hisl ailihciaI saleIIile vilh a cIeai inpIicalion lhal
Soviel nissiIes veie nov alIe lo hil U.S. leiiiloiy ly
ying lhiough space.
Lven duiing peiiods of ieIalive ieIaxalion of len3
sions in U.S.-USSR ieIalions, Soviel peispeclives on
liIaleiaI ains conlioI veie heaviIy linled ly ideoIogi3
caI pieconceplions. The Soviels invaiialIy leIieved
lhal lhe Aneiican side soughl uniIaleiaI advanlages
foi lhenseIves. Soviel Ioieign Minislei Andiei Cio3
nyko iecaIIed in his nenoiis:
Ioi Cailei, as aII olhei Aneiican Iiesidenls~his
piedecessois, lhe paianounl goaI had aIvays con3
sisled in Iiniling lhe Soviel nucIeai polenliaI, vhiIe
keeping lhe nain U.S. sliike foices inlacl. OnIy vilh
gieal effoil, and undei lhe inuence of lhe iiiefulalIe
aigunenls and lhe consliuclive Iine of lhe USSR lhal
#-4/5#, '&,# (2**/+. &- ."# '/+6,9 "# '/26, ,#%&0.#
fion his posilion ained al achieving uniIaleiaI advan3
lages foi lhe Uniled Slales.
5

A ieaI lieaklhiough foi lhe Soviels in lhe puisuil
of equiIiliiun in slialegic ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled
Slales legan lo eneige ly lhe Iale-196Os vhen lhe
Uniled Slales look nole of Soviel effoils lo deveIop
a slialegic anlilaIIislic nissiIe (AM) syslen lhal
evenluaIIy lecane lhe foundalion foi lhe Moscov
AM syslen.
6
The Uniled Slales appaienlIy lecane
conceined vilh lhe piospecl of an ains iace in AM
syslens.
7

1O3
In }une 1967, U.S. Iiesidenl Lyndon }ohnson iaised
lhe AM issue in his neeling vilh Soviel Iieniei
AIeksey Kosygin in CIasloiough, N}. }ohnson said he
couId deIay a decision lo depIoy a U.S. defense syslen
if he couId announce lhal laIks vilh lhe Soviel Union
on lhe suljecl vouId slail shoilIy. Kosygin iepealed
his peisonaI viev: Defense is noiaI, allack is innoi3
aI, and ieileialed lhe Russian IoIilluios posilion
lhal AM syslens couId onIy le discussed logelhei
vilh selling Iinils foi offensive veapons.
8

Hovevei, Soviel piogiess in AM syslens and
piogiess ly lolh sides in lesling nuIlipIe indepen3
denlIy laigelalIe ieenliy vehicIes (MIRVs) hnaIIy
convinced lhe IoIilluio lhal il vas line lo slail laIks.
In Oclolei 1969, U.S. Iiesidenl Richaid Nixon vas
infoined lhal Moscov vas piepaied lo slail ofhciaI
negolialions on lhe suljecl. Nixon agieed and laIks
opened on Novenlei 17, 1969, in HeIsinki, IinIand.
Il look anolhei 2 1/2 yeais lo piepaie lhe ieIevanl
liealies foi signaluie. The AM Tiealy vas signed
in Moscov on May 26, 1972, lhe sane day as lhe
hisl Slialegic Ains Linilalion Tiealy (SALT-1). The
iezhnev Ieadeiship announced lhal lhe AM and
SALT laIks and agieenenls signihed lhal lolh supei3
poveis had ieached paiily in lheii slialegic capaliIi3
lies, even lhough ly lhe line lolh agieenenls veie
ieady foi signing (1971), lhe Soviel Union had 2,163
slialegic vaiheads depIoyed, and lhe Uniled Slales
possessed 4,632 vaiheads.
9
SALT-1 did nol slop lhe
nucIeai ains iace: ly 1981, lhe Soviels incieased lheii
nucIeai aisenaIs neaiIy fouifoId lo a lolaI of 8,O43 vai3
heads, vhiIe lhe Uniled Slales noie lhan doulIed ils
ovn nunleis lo 1O,O22.
1O

Il shouId aIso le undeislood lhal lhe Soviel Ieadei3
ship al no line enleilained pIans lo luiId a nalionaI
1O4
AM syslen. Accoiding lo infoinalion lhal lecane
avaiIalIe Iong aflei lhe iniliaI liIaleiaI delales, nego3
lialions and agieenenls on lhe offensive-defensive
Iinkage, feasiliIily sludies oideied ly lhe Soviels al
lhe line iesuIled in a dehnile concIusion lhal such a
syslen vouId nol onIy le piohililiveIy expensive lul
vouId aIso le lolaIIy ineffeclive and couId le easiIy
penelialed in a nassive nucIeai allack.
11
Theiefoie Moscov decided al an eaiIy slage lhal
il vouId nol vasle iesouices on consliucling such a
syslen. To le alsoIuleIy ceilain lhal lhe Uniled Slales
vouId undei no ciicunslances achieve a lechnoIogicaI
lieaklhiough in defensive syslens vheie lhe Soviels
anlicipaled faiIuie, lheiely gaining slialegic supeiioi3
ily ovei lhe USSR, lhey agieed lo concIude lhe Anli3
aIIislic MissiIe Tiealy (AMT). The conpIele ievei3
saI of lhe KienIins iniliaI skeplicaI allilude lovaids
ieguIaling slialegic defensive syslens vas lased on
piagnalic caIcuIalions. LslalIishing a noialoiiun on
deveIoping slialegic defensive syslens lhal Iasled un3
liI lhe eaiIy 2OOOs nay le consideied a seiious Soviel
achievenenl in ains conlioI.
Wilh lhe concIusion in May 1972 of lhe AM
Tiealy and SALT-1, lhe paiadign of MuluaI Assuied
Desliuclion (MAD) lecane doninanl in U.S.-Soviel
slialegic ieIalions.
12
Negolialions on sulsequenl najoi
ains Iinilalion and ains ieduclion liealies (SALT-
2, Slialegic Ains Reduclion Tiealy |STARTj I and
START II) veie conducled vilh lhe lackgiound of
conlinued ieIiance on nuluaI vuIneialiIily lo ielaIi3
alion.
The Russians piocIained lhe AMT lhe coinei3
slone of slialegic slaliIily in liIaleiaI ieIalions and
lhe foundalion of geopoIilicaI paiily lelveen lhe
supeipoveis.
13
DipIonalic expeiiences of lhe eaiIy-
1O5
197Os had Iong-lein effecls on Ialei Soviel and cuiienl
Russian lhinking. They suggesled lo lhe KienIin lhal:
- Ains conlioI is an exlieneIy vaIualIe neans
of equaIizing capaliIilies of nucIeai adveisaiies
if one of lhen Iags in IeveIs of ainanenls and
lechnoIogicaI piovess.
- Success in negolialions is possilIe as lhe iesuIl
of sullIe and deceplive noves, as in lhe gane
of chess.
- The Iinkage lelveen slialegic offensive and de3
fensive syslens is quinlessenliaI in pievenling
uniIaleiaI advanlages and ciealing laIance in
slialegic ieIalions.
Soviel nucIeai slialegy and docliine veie evoIving
logelhei vilh lhe changing laIance of slialegic foices
and piogiess in ains conlioI negolialions:
Since lhe second haIf of lhe 196Os, lhe Ieadeiship of lhe
>+8#, A/+7#( 0-, ."# (.0.# #)*#+&#-7#, 0 .+0-(1/+803
lion of vievs on lhe possilIe naluie of lhe voiId vai.
The Soviel niIilaiy docliine legan lo lake inlo accounl
lhe possilIe iniliaI slage of a niIilaiy conicl vilh lhe
soIe use of convenlionaI veapons. Theie legan lo
eneige doulls aloul lhe possiliIily of gaining vicloiy
aflei a nassive exchange of nucIeai sliikes. Since lhis
line, lhe Soviel Ieadeiship legan lo seek lhe concIu3
sion of liealies vilh lhe U.S. on lanning oi Iiniling
slialegic nucIeai veapons. . . . eginning in lhe eaiIy-
197Os, lhe nain concepl of deveIoping Soviel slialegic
veapons vas lhe concepl lhal couId le desciiled as
slialegic sufhciency. Il dehned lhe quanlilalive and
quaIilalive conposilion of caiiieis, lheii disliilulion
anong lhe Slialegic MissiIe Tioops, lhe Navy and lhe
>&+ A/+7#9 '&." ,2# 077/2-. /1 */.#-.&06 2(# 2-,#+ ,&13
feienl condilions. They eslalIished scienlihcaIIy lhe
oplinaI ialio of lhe nunlei of caiiieis and vaiheads
1O6
foi lhen. Il aIso look inlo accounl lhe piocess of slia3
legic ains Iinilalions lhal had aIieady legun lelveen
lhe Soviel Union and lhe Uniled Slales.
14
Accoiding lo one Weslein viev, ly lhe Iale-198Os,
lhe Soviels had a faiiIy eIaloiale nucIeai-use docliine
lhal incIuded lhe foIIoving eIenenls:
- Iieenplion (hisl sliike).
- Quanlilalive supeiioiily (a iequisile foi pie3
enplion and necessaiy lecause lhe vai nay
Iasl foi sone line, even lhough lhe iniliaI houis
aie decisive).
- Counleifoice laigeling.
- Conlined-ains opeialions lo suppIenenl nu3
cIeai sliikes.
- Defense, vhich has leen aInosl lolaIIy ne3
gIecled ly lhe Uniled Slales undei ils concepl
of nuluaI deleiience.
15
Hovevei, lhe Soviel Ieadeiship insisled pulIicIy
lhal il vouId nol le lhe hisl lo use nucIeai veapons.
The hisl ofhciaI decIaialion lo lhis effecl vas nade ly
Leonid iezhnev al lhe Second SpeciaI Session of lhe
UN CeneiaI AssenlIy on }une 15, 1982.
16

Q-NL4-7 O;2/46L8MT! W589 =L-5N-5OX
Soon aflei his advenl lo povei in eaiIy 1985,
MikhaiI Coilachev, lhe youngesl CeneiaI Secielaiy
in lhe hisloiy of lhe USSR, announced his ovn vi3
sion and pioposaIs on lhe in-deplh cuiling of nucIeai
ainanenls. In Seplenlei 1985, he offeied lo ieduce
slialegic offensive veapons lo 6,OOO vaiheads on each
side, vhiIe concuiienlIy piohililing lhe depIoynenl
of offensive veapons in oulei space, incIuding veap3
1O7
ons ained al saleIIiles.
17
CIeaiIy, despile his iefoin3
isl iheloiic, on slialegic nucIeai nalleis Coilachev
conlinued lo alide ly lhe concepl of MAD and lhe
liadilionaI Soviel posilion on lhe offensive-defensive
Iinkage.
Coilachevs pioposaIs veie specihcaIIy ained
againsl lhe U.S. Slialegic Defense Inilialive (SDI) an3
nounced ly lhe RonaId Reagan adninislialion in }an3
uaiy 1984. Togelhei vilh Aneiican counleipioposaIs,
lhey veie discussed al lhe Ceneva, SvilzeiIand (No3
venlei 1985) and Reykjavik, IceIand (Oclolei 1986)
liIaleiaI sunnils. In negolialions, vhiIe Coilachev
agieed in piincipIe vilh Reagans pioposaI lo ieduce
ly haIf lhe nunleis of slialegic offensive veapons,
he aIso enphasized lhal lhis vouId nol le possilIe if
lhe Uniled Slales venl ahead vilh ciealing a sliale3
gic defense shieId. He aigued lhal in lhis case, lhe So3
viel Union vouId have lo concenliale on deveIoping
ils slialegic sliike capacily in oidei lo neuliaIize lhe
space shieId.
18

In effecl, Coilachev vas lhe hisl lo offei lhe anli-
laIIislic nissiIe defense (MD) ialionaIizalion lhal
is cuiienlIy used ly Ieadeis of lhe RI. Ioi exanpIe,
he doulled lhe Aneiican suggeslion lo shaie AM
lechnoIogy vilh lhe Soviel Union once il vas ieady
foi use. He loId lhe Aneiicans lhal lhe ciealion of
a shieId . . . vouId aIIov a hisl sliike vilhoul ielaIia3
lion. He aIso said lhal lhe Soviel Union had aIieady
deveIoped a iesponse lo SDI lhal vouId le effeclive,
fai Iess expensive and ieady foi use in Iess line.
19
In
sliII anolhei effoil lo ieconhin lhe iigid Iinkage of
slialegic offensive and defense veapons, Coilachev
decIaied lhal lhe SDI slood in lhe vay of a 5O peicenl
cul in slialegic ains and insisled lhal lhe U.S. adnin3
islialion shouId do sonelhing aloul il if lhe adninis3
lialion vanled lo ieduce lhe nucIeai slockpiIes.
20
1O8
Acadenician of lhe Russian Acadeny of Sciences
Andiei Kokoshin, vho al lhe line of lhe Reagan-
Coilachev sunnils voiked as Depuly Diiecloi of lhe
U.S. and Canada Sludies Inslilule, vas a nenlei of
lhe Coilachev-appoinled inleiagency gioup lo sludy
Soviel asynneliicaI iesponses lo lhe Uniled Slales.
The SDI piogian conhined yeais Ialei lhal lhe Kien3
Iin had indeed agieed on a vaiiely of efhcienl and
cosl-effeclive counleiaclions lo lhe U.S. slialegic de3
fenses if and vhen lhey vouId luin inlo ieaIily.
21
!"&(
noie oi Iess iejecls lhe aigunenl of lhose Russian
anaIysls vho cIain lhal lhe Soviels oveiieacled in a
nassive vay lo lhe U.S. SDI and lhal il vas enoinous
appiopiialions foi hghling lhe leiiifying Aneiican
piogian lhal hnaIIy lioke lhe lacklone of lhe Soviel
econony.
22

Coilachev conlinued lo piess foi speclacuIai nev
agieenenls vilh lhe Uniled Slales. y Decenlei 1987
vhen lhe Soviel Ieadei aiiived in Washinglon foi his
nev sunnil vilh Reagan, lolh sides veie piepaied
lo sign a liealy lanning inleinediale iange nissiIes in
Luiope (lhe Inleinediale Range NucIeai Ioices |INIj
Tiealy). Hovevei, duiing lhal sunnil Coilachev
again did nol faiI lo iefei lo lhe U.S. SDI as a slun3
lIing lIock and ieafhined lhe Iink lelveen offensive
and defense veapons.
IinaIIy, a pieIininaiy conpionise vas ieached.
olh sides vouId connil lhenseIves lo lhe AM
Tiealy as signed in 1972. Reseaich and deveIopnenl
(R&D) and lesling vouId nol le conliaiy lo lhe Tiea3
ly. The Soviel Union and lhe Uniled Slales vouId
nol vilhdiav fion lhe Tiealy foi a specihed peiiod
of line yel lo le deleinined.
23
Duiing his May 1988
visil lo Moscov, Reagan conhined lhal undeisland3
ing. This cIeaied lhe vay foi fuilhei discussions on
1O9
ieducing slialegic ainanenls and evenluaIIy iesuIled
in lhe signing of START I in Moscov on }uIy 31, 1991.
Hovevei, in lhe couise of START I piepaialion,
lhal pail of lhe 1987 undeislanding lhal deaIl vilh
lhe AM Tiealy vas sonehov Iosl on lhe vay.
24

On }une 13, 1991, lhe Soviel Union nade a uniIaleiaI
slalenenl lo lhe effecl lhal a U.S. vilhdiavaI fion lhe
!+#0.5 7/26, *+#(#-. 0 fcrcc najcurc Ieading lo lhe pos3
silIe Soviel vilhdiavaI fion START I.
25

Lven noie inpoilanlIy, no nenlion vas nade in
START I ilseIf of ils Iinkage vilh lhe 1972 Tiealy. This
onission vas lioughl lo Coilachevs allenlion, and
he pionised lo nake an oiaI slalenenl al lhe signing
lo lhe effecl lhal if lhe AM Tiealy vas aliogaled,
lhe Soviel Union vouId nol considei ilseIf lied ly
START I. ul foi ieasons unknovn, he faiIed lo do so.
AIIegedIy, as cIained ly one of his aides, he did nol
vanl lo spoiI lhe feslive alnospheie. AcluaIIy, in
lhe Russian expeil opinion, lhis vas anolhei of lhose
signihcanl eiiois Coilachev nade in his Iasl yeais in
ofhce.
26
Coilachevs ciilics in Russia videIy accuse hin of
having consislenlIy given in lo Aneiican piessuies in
ains conlioI negolialions. AIIegedIy, Coilachev vas
so caiiied avay ly his peisonaI ideas of pcrcs|rci|a
and delenle vilh lhe Wesl, and enanoied ly sun3
8&.+5 '&." ?#(.#+- 6#0,#+(9 ."0. "# '0( *+#*0+#,
lo conpionise on noie inpoilanl Soviel inleiesls,
such as agieeing lo slop consliuclion of lhe Iaige So3
viel phased-aiiay iadai neai lhe Sileiian cily of Kias3
noyaisk, vhiIe luining a lIind eye lo siniIai Aneiican
inslaIIalions in ThuIe, CieenIand, and IyIingdaIes,
Uniled Kingdon (UK).
27
Coilachevs handIing of olhei issues, incIuding
condilions foi lhe ieunihcalion of Ceinany, Soviel
11O
lioop vilhdiavaIs fion Laslein Luiope, eIininalion
of shoil and nediun-iange nissiIes undei lhe INI
Tiealy, and pionises lo gel iid of laclicaI nucIeai
veapons aII ieveileiale loday in lhe Russian disap3
poinlnenls and allenpls al ievising foinei agiee3
nenls and undeislandings.
=L8 /;2-! R87=!-5 28O-Q8
WhiIe MikhaiI Coilachevs ouslei fion povei
and lhe dislandnenl of lhe 75-yeai-oId connunisl
iegine vas geneiaIIy ieceived in Russia vilhoul huge
iegiels, lhe effecls of lhe ensuing disinlegialion of lhe
inpeiiaI Soviel slale Iefl a deep inpiinl on lhe Iives of
niIIions of Russian cilizens. Wilhoul undeiialing lhe
noveIly and nagnilude of lhe piolIens faced ly lhe
goveinnenl of oiis YeIlsin~lhe hisl Iiesidenl of lhe
nev Russian slale~and nininizing ceilain achieve3
nenls in lheii iesoIulion, il is cIeai lhal, ly and Iaige,
lhioughoul lhe YeIlsin iuIe, Russian sociely conlinued
lo sIide inlo noiaI degiadalion, sliucluiaI disinlegia3
lion, and econonic noiass.
On lop of lhe signihcanlIy dininished leiiiloiy,
*/*260.&/-9 #7/-/859 +#(/2+7#(9 8&6&.0+59 0-, */'#+
piojeclion capaliIilies, lhe sociely conlinued lo le
pIagued ly liadilionaI Russian voes: luieaucialic
diclales, nisnanagenenl, and coiiuplion, as veII as
pulIic apalhy and despondency epilonized ly aIco3
hoIisn and addiclion. UnconlioIIed iedisliilulion,
i.e., pIundei of vhal vas Iefl of lhe unvieIdy aIleil
lounlifuI Soviel inheiilance, vas acconpanied ly
ianpanl ciininaIily. y lhe Iale-199Os, Russia Iooked
Iike a faiIed slale on ils vay lo disinlegialion and coI3
Iapse.
111
InleinalionaIIy, lhe RI eained a dulious nicknane
of Uppei VoIla vilh nucIeai veapons.
28
A+#=2#-.
cIains al lhe eaiIy slages of lhe YeIlsin iegine lhal
Russia seeks adheience lo lhe cIul of civiIized Wesl3
ein nalions, veie nol lacked up ly seiious effoils al
&-.#+-06 #%/62.&/- ./ 7/8*65 '&." &-.#+-0.&/-06 (.0-3
daids of denocialic goveinance.
The YeIlsin goveinnenl vas unalIe lo dehne
coheienlIy and expIain lo lhe pulIic lhe goaIs and
oiienlalion of Russian foieign, niIilaiy, and nucIeai
poIicies. Despile a uiiy of inleinalionaI exchanges
lelveen Russian ofhciaIs and foieign dignilaiies, lhe
Russians ienained uIlinaleIy confused vhelhei lhe
RI vas vilh oi againsl lhe Uniled Slales and lhe
Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiganizalion (NATO) on nosl
gIolaI and iegionaI issues. Il appeais lhal YeIlsin hin3
seIf lhoughl lhal lhe Russian nucIeai polenliaI vas an
aulonalic guaianlee of Russian secuiily and a lai3
iiei lo olheis aIIeged anli-Russian poIicies.
29

WhiIe lhe YeIlsin goveinnenl suppoiled denucIe3
aiizalion of olhei foinei Soviel RepulIics and aclu3
aIIy heIped in lhis piocess, e.g., undei lhe Coopeia3
live Thieal Reduclion Iiogian,
3O
&. 7/-.&-2#, ./ +#65
"#0%&65 /- -276#0+ '#0*/-( 0-, -276#0+ ,#.#++#-7#
slialegies. Moieovei, il vas undei lhe YeIlsin iegine
lhal Russia slailed a novenenl avay fion lhe non-
hisl-use of nucIeai veapons in ils niIilaiy docliine.
The piocess vas lypicaI foi YeIlsins eiialic slyIe of
poIicynaking vhen Iols of peopIe in his innediale
enlouiage conpeled foi lhe iighl lo dehne and iepie3
senl Russian inleiesls lo lhe oulside voiId.
On Decenlei 21, 1991, al a neeling in AIna-Aly,
Kazakhslan, vheie Ieadeis of foinei Soviel iepulIics
joined lhe decIaialion on lhe ciealion of lhe Connu3
112
nily of Independenl Slales (CIS), lhe heads of Rus3
sia, Ukiaine, eIaius, and Kazakhslan~slales vilh
lhe sliII-depIoyed Soviel nucIeai veapons~signed
an Agieenenl on }oinl Measuies Regaiding NucIeai
Weapons. AilicIe 2 of lhe Agieenenl slaled lhal ils
nenlei-slales ieconhin lhe olIigalion on lhe non-
hisl-use of nucIeai veapons.
31
Supiene Soviels of
Russia, eIaius, and Kyigyzslan (lhal acluaIIy nevei
signed lhe Agieenenl) ialihed il on Decenlei 25,
1991, }une 1O, 1993, and Maich 6, 1992, iespecliveIy.
Accoiding lo lhe Vienna Convenlion on lhe Lav of
InleinalionaI Tiealies, Russia vas supposed lo alide
ly lhis Agieenenl, unIess il ieconsideied lhe decision
on ils ialihcalion.
Hovevei, lhe YeIlsin goveinnenl soon slailed
diifling avay fion lhe non-hisl-use olIigalion. YeIl3
sins deciee No. 1833 on Main CIauses of lhe RI
MiIilaiy Docliine of Novenlei 2, 1993, vas nevei
pulIished ofhciaIIy. Hovevei, accoiding lo pulIicIy
avaiIalIe souices faniIiai vilh lhe docunenl,
32
&. 10&6#,
lo nake any iefeience lo lhe non-hisl-use olIigalion.
33

In Ieliuaiy 1997, lhen-Secielaiy of lhe RI Secuiily
CounciI Ivan Rylkin decIaied in an inleiviev lo lhe
goveinnenl Rcssiis|aqa Gazc|a lhal lhe Soviel olIiga3
lion nol lo use nucIeai veapons hisl vas a nislake
and lhal Russia vas piepaied in case of a diiecl chaI3
Ienge lo use lhese veapons.
34
Al lhe line, lhe Iiesi3
denls Ofhce liied lo dislance ilseIf fion Rylkins
peisonaI opinion. Hovevei, a shoil vhiIe Ialei, lhis
peisonaI opinion lecane pail and paiceI of lhe ofhciaI
Russian niIilaiy docliine.
Despile lhis and olhei poIicy vaciIIalions and in3
consislencies, lhioughoul his iuIe, oiis YeIlsin liied
lo appeai acconnodaling and piogiessive on niI3
113
ilaiy-poIilicaI ieIalions vilh Wesl and eagei lo con3
pionise on ains conlioI. Hovevei, inleinaI poIilicaI
lickeiing lelveen YeIlsin and lhe Ieadeis of lhe Slale
Duna pievenled lhe goveinnenl fion assuiing iali3
hcalion of lhe key ains conlioI agieenenl negolialed
vilh lhe Uniled Slales~lhe Slialegic Ains Reduclion
Tiealy II (START II).
35
y lhe line of his voIunlaiy ies3
ignalion on Decenlei 31, 1999, Russian foieign and
inleinaI poIicies appeaied lo le heading inlo an in3
passe. In effecl, lhe RI vas slanding on lhe liink of
chaos and inninenl nalionaI disinlegialion.
=L8 M74?-Q-2 :3=-5 :28!-?856R
In shaip conliasl, YeIlsins hand-picked successoi,
oiiginaIIy a IillIe-knovn appaialchik, VIadinii V. Iu3
.&-
36
couId lecone nol onIy a videIy popuIai Russian
Ieadei, lul acluaIIy a synloI of Russian econonic and
poIilicaI ievivaI.
37
Iulin voiked consislenlIy lo cieale
a nev nalion-vide iuIing eIile lased sliongIy on pei3
sonaI devolions and vassaI-lype dependencies. The
consliuclion of a iigid veilicaI of povei
38
0-, ."#
use of lIunl foice in sulduing iegionaI secessionisn,
vhiIe ciilicized as oveiIy aulhoiilaiian,
39
slienglh3
#-#, ."# 7#-.+06 02."/+&.5 0-, #6&8&-0.#, 827" /1 ."#
cenliifugaI lendencies in Russian iegions. Conhning
IsIanic iadicaIisn and leiioiisl aclivilies piedoni3
nanlIy lo soulhein Russia ciealed a sense of ieIalive
secuiily in popuIous hinleiIand iegions.
Undei Mi. Iulin, a consideialIe effoil vas devol3
ed lo hIIing in lhe ideoIogicaI void ciealed ly lhe
disappeaiance of connunisl ideoIogy and lhe Soviel
piopaganda appaialus.
4O
In lhe seaich foi lhe nev na3
lionaI idea,
41
'&,# 2(# '0( 80,# /1 .+0,&.&/-06 .//6(
of sociaI noliIizalion in Russia~nalionaIisn, ieIigion
114
and paliiolisn.
42
WhiIe lheie is no singIe dislincl, Iel
aIone doninanl ideoIogy in Russia so fai, il is nol ex3
aclIy liue lhal Russian slialegic poIicynakeis have
no ideoIogy.
43
The Russian iuIing eIile is diiven ly
sliong Cieal Russian inslincls and nenlaIily. An3
olhei inpoilanl conponenl of lhe eneiging syslen of
pievaiIing vaIues and concepls in Russia is lhe iejec3
lion of lhe geopoIilicaI nodeI lhal has al ils cenlei lhe
congIoneiale of advanced Weslein poveis headed
ly lhe Uniled Slales. In lhe cuiienl Russian poIilicaI
veinacuIai lhis aspecl of lhe eneiging ofhciaI ideoI3
ogy and slialegy is usuaIIy idenlihed as opposilion lo
unipoIaiily and Aneiican gIolaI diclale.
Iulins giand slialegy caIIed foi noliIizing aII
avaiIalIe inleinaI iesouices lo iesloie Russias poIili3
caI, econonic and niIilaiy giandeui. NucIeai veap3
/-( 0-, 0+8( 7/-.+/6 ,&*6/8075 '#+# 7066#, 2*/- ./
pIay ciuciaI ioIes in lhe piogian of nalionaI ievivaI.
y Iale 2OO2, Iulin ieveised aII pIans pionoled ly
lhe goveinnenl of his piedecessoi lo ieoiganize and
dovnsize lhe Slialegic MissiIe Tioops (SMT). Lxpand3
ing U.S. MD piogians veie lhe sliongesl aigunenl
in favoi of pieseiving lhe slalus of lhe SMT and ex3
lending lhe seivice Iives of aging heavy ICMs, ex3
piessIy lo counlei lhe aIIeged U.S. MD lhieal lo lhe
Russian deleiience polenliaI. Any doulls lhe Russian
8&6&.0+53*/6&.&706 6#0,#+("&* 7/26, "0%# "0, *+#%&3
ousIy aloul lhe vaIue and inpoilance of lhe Russian
offensive nissiIe-nucIeai capaliIily vanished con3
pIeleIy.
UIlinaleIy, VIadinii Iulin aigued lhal slopping
lhe decay of Russian niIilaiy povei vas anong lhe
nain achievenenls of his 8-yeai piesidency. In 2OO6,
VIadinii Iulin iepoiled lo lhe Russian IegisIaluie:
115
The silualion in lhe ained foices loday has changed
dianalicaIIy. We have ciealed a nodein sliucluie
1/+ ."# 0+8#, 1/+7#( 0-, ."# ,&11#+#-. 2-&.( 0+# -/'
ieceiving nodein, nev ains and equipnenl, ains
and equipnenl lhal viII foin lhe lasis of oui defense
lhiough lo 2O2O. . . . NavaI shipluiIding has gol un3
deivay again and ve aie nov luiIding nev vesseIs
of piaclicaIIy aII lypes. The Russian Navy viII soon
connission lvo nev nucIeai sulnaiines caiiying
slialegic veapons. They viII le equipped vilh lhe
nev uIava nissiIe syslen, vhich logelhei vilh
lhe TopoI-M syslen viII foin lhe lacklone of oui
slialegic deleiienl foice. I enphasize lhal lhese aie lhe
hisl nucIeai sulnaiines lo le conpIeled in nodein
Russia. We had nol luiIl a singIe vesseI of lhis lype
since 199O.
44

In effecl, il vas undei VIadinii Iulin lhal lhe Rus3
sian nissiIe-nucIeai polenliaI lecane lhe synloI of
Russias suivivaI as a nalion-slale and lhe alsoIule
guaianlee of ils secuiily. In lhe Russian Iiesidenls
voids, When Iooking al lodays inleinalionaI silua3
lion and lhe piospecls foi ils deveIopnenl, Russia is
conpeIIed lo ieaIize lhal nucIeai deleiience is a key
eIenenl in guaianleeing lhe counliys secuiily.
45

Duiing his piesidency, he consislenlIy aIIuded
lo lhe Russian nucIeai polenliaI as lhe foundalion of
Russias speciaI ioIe in geopoIilics. Alove aII, in lhe
eyes of lhe Russian Ieadeiship, a iolusl nucIeai polen3
liaI ciealed piecondilions foi slialegic paiily vilh
lhe Uniled Slales. The Russian Iogic vas sinpIe:
Russia and lhe Uniled Slales aie lhe liggesl nucIeai
poveis. Oui econony nighl le snaIIei, lul Russias
nucIeai polenliaI is sliII conpaialIe lo lhal of lhe Unil3
ed Slales. AIso inpoilanl is lhal ve have lhe yeais of
expeiience, lhe lechnoIogy and lhe pioduclion polen3
liaI, lhe lechnoIogicaI chains and lhe speciaIisls. Rus3
116
sia is a gieal nucIeai povei. No one dispules oi doulls
lhis. And lhe Uniled Slales and Russia dehnileIy have
a shaied inleiesl in ensuiing secuiily on lhis pIanel.
46
The Iulin goveinnenl offeied fuII suppoil lo lhe
Slialegic NucIeai Ioices and pails of lhe niIilaiy-in3
dusliiaI conpIex (MIC) iesponsilIe foi lhe deveIop3
nenl, nainlenance and nodeinizalion of lhe coun3
liys nissiIe-nucIeai shieId. In a lypicaI slalenenl
daled }une 9, 2OO6, al an inpoilanl neeling vilh heads
of enleipiises leIonging lo MIC, lhe second Russian
Iiesidenl decIaied:
Oui counliys nucIeai polenliaI is of vilaI inpoilance
foi oui nalionaI secuiily inleiesls. The ieIialiIily of oui
'nucIeai shieId and lhe slale of oui nucIeai veapons
conpIex aie a ciuciaI conponenl of Russias voiId
povei slalus. I do sliess lhal oui voik lo deveIop oui
nucIeai aisenaI nusl go hand in hand vilh lhe nosl
sliingenl denands on ieIialiIily and secuiily of op3
#+0.&/- 0-,9 /1 7/2+(#9 '&." (.+&7. 7/8*6&0-7# '&." 066
non-pioIifeialion iegines. In lhis iespecl Russias po3
silion is hin and unchanging.
47

The idea of using nucIeai veapons in Iiniled vai
vas aIso gaining nonenlun undei VIadinii Iulins
piesidency. Senioi Russian geneiaIs slailed laIking
aloul using lhen in exeicises and in Iiniled vai aI3
ieady in lhe Iale-199Os.
48
The nev veision of lhe RI
MiIilaiy Docliine of ApiiI 21, 2OOO, deveIoped undei
oiis YeIlsin lul signed ly VIadinii Iulin in his ca3
pacily of Inleiin Iiesidenl, eIaloialed lhe piovisions
peilaining lo lhe Iiniled use of nucIeai veapons lhal
veie sel oul foui nonlhs eaiIiei in lhe NalionaI Se3
cuiily Concepl and in lhis iegaid naiked a quaIila3
liveIy nev slage in lhe deveIopnenl of Russian nucIe3
ai docliine.
49
In pailicuIai, il slaled:
117
The Russian Iedeialion ieseives lhe iighl lo use
-276#0+ '#0*/-( &- +#(*/-(# ./ ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ /+
olhei lypes of veapons of nass desliuclion againsl il
and (oi) ils aIIies, as veII as in iesponse lo a Iaige-scaIe
aggiession invoIving lhe use of convenlionaI veapons
in silualions ciilicaI lo lhe nalionaI secuiily of lhe Rus3
sian Iedeialion. The Russian Iedeialion viII nol use
nucIeai veapons againsl slales-nenleis of lhe Tiealy
on lhe Non-IioIifeialion of NucIeai Weapons lhal do
nol possess nucIeai veapons, excepl in case of an ag3
giession againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion, lhe Ained
Ioices of lhe Russian Iedeialion oi olhei lioops, ils
aIIies oi againsl a slale vilh vhich il has agieenenls in
lhe aiea of secuiily, connilled oi suppoiled ly such
0 (.0.# ."0. ,/#( -/. */((#(( -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 4/&-.65
oi in lhe piesence of aIIied olIigalions vilh a slale-
possessoi of nucIeai veapons.
5O
esides lhe RI MiIilaiy Docliine, lhe Iulin gov3
einnenl appioved olhei docliinaI and slialegy docu3
nenls lhal ieseived a speciaI pIace foi lhe slialegic
veapons in assuiing Russian secuiily, incIuding lhe
IedeiaI Lav On Defense,
51
lhe NalionaI Secuiily
Docliine,
52
lhe Ioieign IoIicy Docliine,
53
0( '#66 0(
poIicy slalenenls ly high goveinnenl ofhciaIs, e.g.,
annuaI IiesidenliaI Addiesses lo lhe IedeiaI Assen3
lIy, elc. WhiIe lhese docunenls did nol idenlify lhe
polenliaI adveisaiies of Russia ly nane, il vas ol3
vious lhal lhe Uniled Slales and NATO poveis veie
al lhe lop of lhe Iisl of lhe lhieal faclois foi Russia.
54
eIIicose slalenenls on Russian ieadiness lo use
nucIeai veapons conlinued lhioughoul VIadinii Iu3
lins piesidency. In Ieliuaiy 2OO7 lhen-Defense Min3
islei Seigei Ivanov loId lhe Duna lhal, As iegaids
lhe use of nucIeai veapons in case of aggiession, of
couise |ve viII use lhen in lhis casej. Whal eIse veie
118
lhey luiIl foi`
55
He did nol nenlion any of lhe caveals
associaled vilh ofhciaI Russian nucIeai use docliine.
A fev days Ialei CoIoneI-CeneiaI NikoIay So3
Iovlsov, Connandei of lhe Slialegic MissiIe Tioops,
nade nucIeai lhieals againsl IoIand and lhe Czech
RepulIic if lhey veie lo aIIov U.S. nissiIe depIoy3
nenl.
56
Despile U.S. piolesls againsl such inanna3
loiy laclics, lhen-Connandei of lhe RI CeneiaI Slaff
Ainy CeneiaI Yuiii aIuyevskii in ApiiI 2OO7 once
again lhiealened lo laigel U.S. nissiIe defense faciIi3
lies in Luiope: If ve see lhal lhese faciIilies pose a
lhieal lo Russia, lhese laigels viII le incIuded in lhe
Iisls of oui pIanneis~slialegic, nucIeai, oi olheis. The
Iallei is a lechnicaIily.
57
The Iulin goveinnenls decision lo pul nucIeai
'#0*/-( 0-, 0+8( 7/-.+/6 &- ."# 7#-.#+ /1 &.( 8&6&.0+5
and foieign poIicy agenda vas appaienlIy laken vilh
seveiaI inpoilanl goaIs in nind. IiislIy, ly associal3
ing ains conlioI faiIuies vilh lhe veakness of Rus3
sias gIolaI povei and slalue, Moscov vas ciealing
juslihcalions foi inlensihed effoils al inleinaI niIila3
iizalion in geneiaI and nodeinizalion of lhe Russian
slialegic foices in pailicuIai.
SecondIy, ly pIaying lhe ains conlioI caid,
VIadinii Iulin vas sullIy dislancing hinseIf fion
lhe pieceding oiis YeIlsin adninislialion, vhich vas
associaled in lhe Russian nind vilh nany lioulIes of
lheii counliy in lhe 199Os. ThiidIy, enphasis on nucIe3
ai-ieIaled issues vas VIadinii Iulins vay of signaI3
ing lo lhe Uniled Slales and olhei nucIeai poveis lhal
Moscov vouId nol sil idIe vhiIe olheis augnenl lheii
ovn capaliIilies.
58
In a vay, lhe Russians veie offei3
ing a choice lelveen a nev iace in advanced veapon
syslens and ieluin lo linding iesliainls and Iinila3
lions in deveIoping and inlioducing lhese syslens.
59

119
In lhe Iallei case, lhey expecled opponenls, lhe Uniled
Slales in pailicuIai, lo iecognize lhal Russia deseives
a speciaI pIace in geopoIilics ly viilue of ils niIilaiy
and econonic polenliaI, size, hisloiy, and cuIluie.
6O

In an olvious denonslialion of his ieadiness lo
deale lensions and fuIhII Russias ains conlioI olIi3
galions, shoilIy aflei his foinaI eIeclion lo lhe piesi3
denliaI posl, VIadinii Iulin noved lo expedile ialih3
calion of lhe START II Tiealy. On ApiiI 14, 2OOO, Iulin
couId naslei lhe najoiily of voles in lhe Slale Duna
in suppoil of lhe Tiealy. In assuiing lhe ialihcalion
."0. #62,#, "&( *+#,#7#((/+ 1/+ 80-5 5#0+(9 ."# -#'
Russian Iiesidenl vas nolivaled as nuch ly lhe de3
siie lo liing lhe Russian IegisIaluie undei his conlioI
as ly lhe need lo avoid lhe inage of a veakIing in
lhe eyes of Washinglon.
Hovevei, VIadinii Iulin and peopIe aiound hin
veie evidenlIy veII avaie of lhe seiious nisgivings
of lhe Russian niIilaiy aloul START II. AInosl fion
lhe nonenl il vas signed ly Iiesidenls iII CIinlon
and oiis YeIlsin on }anuaiy 3, 1993, nany in lhe Rus3
sian poIilicaI eIile and lhe expeil connunily aigued
againsl ils ialihcalion lecause aIIegedIy il voiked
againsl Russian inleiesls and iepiesenled a huge
concession lo lhe Uniled Slales.
Moscov vas aIso veII avaie lhal paiaIIeI lo ef3
foils al naking START II effeclive, lhe Uniled Slales
vas consideiing changes lo oi aliogalion of lhe AM
Tiealy in oidei lo inpIenenl ils MD piogians.
CIeaiIy, il vas vilh Iulins acquiescence lhal lhe Slale
Duna added a piovision lo ils START II ialihcalion
docunenl slaling lhal Russia vouId nol le lied ly lhis
oi olhei ains conlioI agieenenls if lhe AM Tiealy
vas vioIaled ly lhe Uniled Slales Accoiding lo Rus3
sian expeils, Thus, lhe Iink lhal Coilachev faiIed lo
12O
insisl upon in 1991 vas ie-eslalIished nine yeais Ialei
ly Russia undei VIadinii Iulin.
61

The START II Tiealy had nevei enleied inlo foice.
esides Iinking lhe fale of lhe Tiealy lo U.S. adhei3
ence lo lhe AMT, lhe Russian IegisIalive decision on
ialihcalion nade ils inpIenenlalion conlingenl on
lhe U.S. Senale ialifying a Seplenlei 1997 addendun
lo lhe liealy lhal incIuded Agieed Slalenenls on
AM-TMD Denaicalion.
62
Neilhei of lhese occuiied
lecause of U.S. Senale opposilion, vheie a faclion
oljecled lo any aclion suppoilive of lhe AMT. On
}une 14, 2OO2, one day aflei lhe Uniled Slales foinaIIy
vilhdiev fion lhe AMT, Russia announced ils vilh3
diavaI fion START II.
Hovevei, Russian hinness vas of dulious po3
IilicaI and piaclicaI vaIue. In effecl, faiIuie lo pievenl
lhe denise of lhe AMT vas appaienlIy a good Ies3
son foi lhe Iulin goveinnenl. Il denonslialed lhal
no anounl of iheloiic and veilaI lhieals can affecl
aclions of a sliongei and deleinined opponenl. The
Russians ieaIized lhal diagging lheii feel vilh START
II ialihcalion, iefusaI lo accepl eaiIiei conpionise
pioposaIs on MD nodihcalion lo acconnodale pai3
licuIai U.S. inleiesls in deveIoping Iiniled AM capa3
liIilies, and, geneiaIIy speaking, Iack of exiliIily and
faiIuie lo use vindovs of oppoilunily in uid dipIo3
nalic exchanges had iesuIled in lhe uIlinale Ioss foi
lhe veakei side.
To lhe ciedil of lhe Iulin goveinnenl and VIadinii
Iulin peisonaIIy, lhey iefused lhe lenplalion lo ieacl
"5(.#+&70665 0-, (.&+ 2* (.&66 0-/."#+ 80((&%# 0772(03
loiy canpaign againsl lhe Uniled Slales in iesponse
lo lhe acluaI U.S. noves lo vilhdiav fion lhe AMT
(lhe U.S. announcenenl on lhe vilhdiavaI vas issued
on Decenlei 13, 2OO1, and lhe Tiealy ceased lo exisl
on }une 13, 2OO2.)
63

121
As seen ly a Russian expeil:
In nid-2OO1 Iulin suddenIy soflened lhe Iinkage |le3
lveen slialegic offensive and defensive veaponsj . . .
evenluaIIy peinilling Ceoige W. ush lo sciap lhe
AM Tiealy vilhoul voiiying aloul an adequale
Russian iesponse. y doing so, Iulin aIso undeinined
lhe aigunenls of lhe opposilion in lhe Uniled Slales lo
ushs decision lhal cIained lhal sciapping lhe Tiealy
vouId Iead lo a nev ainanenls iace.
64
SiniIai rca|pc|i|i| 7067260.&/-( 0**0+#-.65 *605#, 0
niligaling ioIe in dehning Russias ieaclion lo lhe ini3
liaI NATO enIaigenenl.
65
OlviousIy, VIadinii Iulin
vas peisonaIIy iesponsilIe foi pievenling oulluisls
of indignalion and pionises of counleiaclions lhal
couId nol le suppoiled ly acluaI denonslialions of
Russian povei and couId do noie hain lhan good lo
lhe Russian iepulalion in Luiope and leyond.
Moscov sav a ieIalive conpensalion foi ceding
giound on lhe AMT and laking an acconnodaling
sland on gIolaI issues in lhe U.S. agieenenl lo nego3
liale and concIude lhe Slialegic Offensive Reduc3
lions Tiealy (SORT), aIso iefeiied lo as lhe Moscov
Tiealy.
66
The KienIin piesenled lhe signing of lhe
Tiealy on May 24, 2OO2 as ils lig success despile
lhe Tiealys aIIeged dehciencies, such as Iack of ex3
pIicil eIaloiale veiihcalion and olhei inpIenenling
aiiangenenls, on lhe anaIogy vilh START, and lhe
possiliIily of upIoading vaiheads ienoved fion
lheii caiiieis foi sloiage and nol eIininalion al sone
poinl in lhe fuluie.
67

As lhe Soviels lefoie lhen, lhe Russians sav ains
conlioI negolialions and agieenenls ciealing a quinl3
essenliaI paiadign foi equaIizing Russian and U.S.
ioIes in such key aieas of inleinalionaI dipIonacy
122
as WMD nonpioIifeialion, gIolaI and iegionaI secu3
iily syslens, elc.
68
Diiecloi of lhe Russian Inslilule foi
Slialegic Sludies Yevgenii Kozhokhin desciiled Rus3
sian seIf-inleiesl in ains conlioI in conneclion vilh
lhe signing of SORT and olhei liIaleiaI agieenenls in
Moscov in May 2OO2:
Russia does nol conceaI ils vesled inleiesl in lhe agiee3
nenls lhal have leen signed. Il Iooks Iike Moscov is
piinaiiIy nolivaled ly lhe desiie lo enshiine in lhe
agieenenl equaIily in lhe ieIalions vilh lhe U.S. and,
if possilIe, lo nainlain al Ieasl a seening paiily in
slialegic ains. A facloi of no Iess inpoilance is Rus3
sias hope lhal il viII le alIe lo pul an enphasis on
lhe piincipIe of inleidependence lelveen slialegic
offensive and defensive veapons. These nusl le lhe
ieasons vhy Moscov insisled on a IegaIIy linding
chaiaclei of lhe fuluie agieenenl. Iion Russias poinl
/1 %&#'9 -/ /."#+ ,/728#-. 7/26, "#6* &. 07"&#%# ."#(#
goaIs.
69
SORT vas pailicuIaiIy veIcone foi Moscov, es3
*#7&0665 (&-7# &. 708# 0. 0 .&8# '"#- ."# (.+27.2+# /1
liadilionaI ains conlioI vas shalleied ly lhe disap3
peaiance of lhe AMT of 1972, vhich vas Iong con3
sideied ly lhe Russians lo iepiesenl lhe coineislone
of lhe enliie liIaleiaI slialegic ains conlioI.
70

y consenling lo a signihcanlIy Iess sliucluied
ains conlioI and lhe alandonnenl of lhe diiecl quaIi3
.0.&%# 0-, =20-.&.0.&%# *0+&.5 &- /11#-(&%# 0-, ,#1#-3
sive capaliIilies, lhe KienIin appeaied lo have nol
onIy accepled lhe unavoidalIe, lul aIso unlied ils ovn
hands in puisuing nodeinizalion of nucIeai foices in
Iine vilh inleinaI econonic and poIilicaI exigencies.
The Russians look advanlage of lhe ieIaliveIy in3
pioved slialegic ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled Slales lo
123
107&6&.0.# ."# #6&8&-0.&/- /1 '#0*/- (5(.#8( ."0. '#+#
#&."#+ .// /6,9 /+ .// 7/(.65 ./ 80&-.0&- 1/+ *2+*/(#(
of sufhcienl deleiience vhiIe concenlialing on lhe
,#%#6/*8#-. 0-, *+/,27.&/- /1 8/,#+- 0-, 8/+# #13
feclive syslens. They aIso soughl lo pionole liIaleiaI
0-, 826.&60.#+06 7//*#+0.&/- '&." ."# ?#(. &- 0+#0(
vheie Moscov Iacked iesouices and/oi advanced
lechnoIogies, e.g. aIIislic MissiIe Defense (MD).
A key Russian dipIonalic inilialive, inlended as
an aIleinalive lo lhe U.S. gIolaI MD syslen, vas lhe
offei lo cieale a Luiopean AM syslen. The Luio-
AM vas supposed lo le luiIl vilh lhe heIp of Rus3
sian laclicaI AM lechnoIogies lhal couId aIIegedIy
piolecl lhe Luiopean conlinenl, incIuding lhe Luio3
pean pail of lhe RI, againsl non-slialegic laIIislic nis3
(&6#(
71
Moieovei, lhe Russian goveinnenl pioposed lo
pailicipale in deveIoping slialegic AM syslens
in coopeialion vilh lhe Uniled Slales on lhe lasis of
equaIily of iighls and undei an appiopiiale IegaI
fianevoik.
72
=L8 Q8?M8?8MU:3=-5 ?33QM-24=8
The eIevalion of Dniliii Medvedev lo lhe pinnacIe
of lhe Russian poIilicaI hieiaichy did nol and appai3
enlIy couId nol nake any najoi changes lo lhe Rus3
sian nucIeai slialegy, especiaIIy lhe ieIiance on nucIe3
ai veapons. Medvedev vas hand-picked ly VIadinii
Iulin as his successoi. olh shaie povei in a duunvi3
iale aiiangenenl. Disagieenenls lelveen lhe lvo aie
Iiniled lo secondaiy nalleis.
As a synloIic gesluie addiessed lo lhe Russian
peopIe and lhe iesl of lhe voiId, on May 15, 2OO8,
haidIy a veek aflei his foinaI inauguialion as lhe RI
Iiesidenl (May 7, 2OO8), Dniliii Medvedev visiled lhe
heId posilions of lhe 54lh nissiIe division of lhe Slia3
124
legic MissiIe Tioops al lhe Teikovo MissiIe ConpIex
(Ivanovo Region). On lhe occasion, lhe piesidenliaI
piess seivice announced pioudIy:
The 54lh nissiIe division is lhe hisl foinalion in
chaige of lhe nev, iehlled noliIe Iand-lased nissiIe
syslen TopoI-M. In 2OO6 lhe hisl nissiIe lallaIion
ained vilh such veapons cane inlo aclive seivice.
In Decenlei of Iasl yeai a second TopoI-M nissiIe
lallaIion vilh lhiee Iauncheis vas pul inlo seivice al
lhe Teikovo MissiIe ConpIex. The TopoI-M nissiIe
7/8*6#) +#*+#(#-.( ."# 60.#(. 07"&#%#8#-.( /1 (7&#-7#
and lechnoIogy. The lake-off veighl of lhe nissiIes is
47 lons, lheii niIilaiy payIoad is 12OO kiIogians, and
lheii ighl iange 1O,OOO kiIoneleis.
73

Medvedevs hisl yeai in povei vas naiked ly
lhe voisl ciisis in Russias ieIalions vilh Ceoigia.
The Augusl 2OO8, vai lelveen lhe lvo foinei Soviel
iepulIics vas oslensilIy handIed piinaiiIy ly Med3
vedev as lhe nev Russian Connandei-in-Chief even
lhough il is evidenl lhal Mi. Iulin pailicipaled fuIIy in
vai pIanning and evenluaI iesoIulion of lhe conicl.
74

WhiIe ciilicizing lhe Uniled Slales foi uniIaleiaI3
isn and foieign advenluiisn lhe Russian Ieadeis
soughl coopeialion vilh lhe Uniled Slales on nany
evoIving negalive gIolaI phenonena~fion uclu3
aling naikel condilions lo lhe iise of iadicaIisn, in3
leinalionaI leiioiisn, pioIifeialion of WMD, elc. In
effecl, despile ils dispIeasuie vilh lhe RepulIican Ad3
ninislialion, lhe Medvedev goveinnenl denonslial3
ed eageiness lo invoIve Russia in gIolaI coopeialive
venluies Ied ly lhe Uniled Slales, e.g., lhe Cioup of 8
(C-8) and lhe Cioup of Tvenly (C-2O).
Wilh lhe coning lo povei in lhe Uniled Slales of
lhe Denocialic Adninislialion, lolh Medvedev and
125
Iulin sav added oppoilunilies foi pionoling Russian
slialegic inleiesls and, in pailicuIai, lhe Russian ains
conlioI agenda. Moscov look advanlage of Washing3
lons inlenlion (nany lhink ideaIislic and evenluaIIy
deliinenlaI lo lellei U.S. inleiesls)
75
lo signihcanlIy
+#,27# 0-, #%#-.20665 #6&8&-0.# 066 -276#0+ '#0*/-(9
in oidei lo expedile negolialions on lhe nev liIaleiaI
slialegic ains ieduclion liealy (START III).
The KienIin piaised lhe signing of lhe liealy on
ApiiI 8, 2O1O lo iepIace lolh SORT and START I (lhal
had acluaIIy expiied in Decenlei 2OO9) as a synloI
of conlinued slialegic paiily.
76
Iio-goveinnenl
expeils haiIed lhe nev liealy as exlieneIy leneh3
ciaI foi lhe RI. As slaled ly lhe Diiecloi of lhe U.S.
and Canada Inslilule of lhe RI Acadeny of Sciences,
Seigei Rogov:
We viII nol have lo ieduce anylhing pienaluieIy.
In effecl, lhe ceiIings eslalIished ly lhe nev START
Tiealy do nol foice us lo ieduce cuiienlIy avaiIalIe
slialegic offensive foices, in conliasl lo pievious liea3
lies lhal lanned oi Iiniled oui heavy nissiIes as veII
as oui noliIe MIRVed ICMs. These Iinilalions have
,&(0**#0+#,9 0-, ."# !+#0.5 066/'( 2( ./ 7/-,27. ."#
nodeinizalion of oui slialegic foices since lhe oId
Soviel veapons have Iong exhausled lheii Iife-leins.
Iion nov on, each side dehnes lhe conposilion and
sliucluie of ils slialegic foices independenlIy. Russia
nov has lhe capaliIily~pieviousIy denied lo us~lo
depIoy nev MIRVed ICMs as veII as nev sea-lased
syslens. In effecl, onIy ludgelaiy aIIocalions and
lhe polenliaI of oui indusliy viII dehne hov nany
TopoI-M and RS-24 nissiIes~lhal vouId appaienlIy,
logelhei vilh lhe uIava, foin lhe foundalion of Rus3
sias slialegic offensive veapons~ve vouId le alIe
lo luiId. Il nay nol le excIuded lhal lefoie lhe Tiealy
expiies and unIess Russia and lhe U.S. concIude nev
agieenenls on fuilhei ieduclions, as chanpioned ly
126
Olana, lheie viII appeai a nev lype of Russian heavy
ICMs. OnIy lhe Uniled Slales viII have lo conducl
ieduclions, aIleil nol veiy dianalic ones.
77

Hovevei a Iess enlhusiaslic peispeclive vas of3
feied ly anaIysls vilhoul Iinks lo lhe Russian ofh3
ciaIdon. Ioi exanpIe, Majoi CeneiaI (Rel.) VIadinii
Dvoikin vained lhal nuneiicaI ieduclions of nucIeai
veapons lelveen lhe lvo Ieading nucIeai poveis do
nol soIve nuneious gIolaI secuiily piolIens~fion
nucIeai leiioiisn lo iegionaI nucIeai conagialions.
In lhe case of Russia, dininished nucIeai deleiience
polenliaI iaises uneasy queslions aloul lhe veakness
of Russian convenlionaI foices, vuIneialiIily lo allack
vilh piecision veapons, nediun- and shoilei-iange
nissiIes no Iongei possessed ly Russia and lhe Uniled
Slales, and lhe need lo lake inlo accounl lhe nucIeai
aisenaIs of U.S. aIIies, China and olhei exisling and
eneiging possessois of nucIeai veapons.
78

Sone goveinnenl ciilics cane lo iegaid lhe nev
START as a conspiiacy lo evenluaIIy depiive Russia
of ils nucIeai deleiience enliieIy. The signing of lhe
liealy gave iise lo nuneious pulIicalions in Russia on
lhe faIIacy of uniIaleiaI nucIeai disainanenl.
79

IaiaIIeI lo lhe ains conlioI aclivily, Medvedev,
vho piides hinseIf on IegaI expeilise and adheience
lo inleinalionaI IegaIily, engaged in piepaialion
of nuneious inleinaI Russian docliinaI docunenls,
incIuding an updale of lhe RI MiIilaiy Docliine and
Ioieign IoIicy Concepl. In effecl, lhe voik on lhe ie3
vision of lhe 2OOO RI MiIilaiy Docliine slailed Iong
lefoie Medvedevs coning lo povei. Ioi yeais, Mos3
7/' *#+&/,&70665 0-, 0**0+#-.65 *2+*/(#12665 7&+723
60.#, +28/+( /- ."# &88&-#-7# /1 ."# ,/728#-. 0-,
ils foilhconing najoi noveIly, pailicuIaiIy ieIaled lo
127
lhe expanded uses of nucIeai veapons. As eaiIy as
Oclolei 2OO3 lhe niIilaiy lop liass, Iiesidenl VIadi3
nii Iulin, adninislialion ofhciaIs, ninisleis, secuiily
chiefs, Duna depulies, and jouinaIisls galheied in lhe
Defense Minisliy lo heai Defense Minislei Seigei Iva3
nov piesenl a docunenl lilIed lhe IulIic Iail of lhe
MiIilaiy Docliine.
8O
Nevs on lhe piepaialion of a nev veision of lhe
Russian MiIilaiy Docliine lhal vas supposed lo con3
cielize Russian lhieal peiceplions and slialegy legan
lo ciicuIale vilh pailicuIai inlensily aiound nid-2OO6,
al a line vhen U.S.-Russia ieIalions veie al lheii Iov3
esl ell in yeais.
81
Accoiding lo nedia iepoils, lhe nev
,/728#-. '0( &-.#-,#, -/. /-65 ./ ,&+#7.65 &,#-.&15
lhe Uniled Slales and NATO as Russias key polen3
liaI adveisaiies, lul aIso equale lhieals fion Weslein
souices lo lhe lhieal of leiioiisn.
82
On }anuaiy 2O, 2OO7, al lhe MiIilaiy-and-Scienlihc
Confeience of lhe Acadeny of MiIilaiy Sciences, lhe
Ieadeiship of lhe RI Ained Ioices foinaIIy ievieved
."# (.+27.2+# 0-, ."# 7/-.#-. /1 ."# -#' %#+(&/- /1
lhe Docliine. Accoiding lo lhe iepoil of lhe confei3
ence pioceedings ly lhe Acadenys Iiesidenl, Ainy
CeneiaI Makhnud Caieev, nucIeai issues occupied
a speciaI pIace in lhe discussions.
83
The Docliine vas
iepoiled lo sliess lhe ieeneigence of lhe exislenliaI
nucIeai lhieal lo lhe RI. As enphasized ly CeneiaI
Caieev, nucIeai veapons of aII slales lhal possess
lhen aie uIlinaleIy ained al Russia. In pailicuIai,
as seen ly lhe Russian niIilaiy, NATO is engaged in
ciealion of poveifuI gioupings of ained foices lhal
aie dianalicaIIy changing lhe niIilaiy laIance in Lu3
iope and gIolaIIy.
84
Nol suipiisingIy, in Iighl of such
,&+# 0((#((8#-.(9 ."# *+/*/(#, -#' 8&6&.0+5 ,/7.+&-06
docunenl vas expecled lo caII foi augnenling lhe
|Russianj nucIeai polenliaI in lhe fuluie.
85
128
}uslihcalions foi nodeinizalion of lhe Russian
slialegic liiad veie soughl and found in Aneiican
,#760+0.&/-( /1 &-.#-.&/-(9 (.0.#8#-.(9 0-, 0--/2-7#,
piogians, such as lhe decision lo iesune lhe pio3
duclion of pIuloniun pails foi nucIeai lonls
86
0-,
deveIop nev lypes of efhcienl Iov-yieId vaiheads.
87

AIainisl Russian nedia iepoils acconpanied lhe ap3
peaiance of piaclicaIIy any ofhciaI U.S. poIicy slale3
nenl deaIing vilh lhe issue of nucIeai veapons.
88
Ioi nany yeais Ieading lo lhe eneigence of a nev
veision of lhe RI MiIilaiy Docliine, Moscov liied lo
hghl off poIilicaIIy and dipIonalicaIIy lhe expanding
U.S. MD piogian and, in pailicuIai, U.S. pIans lo de3
pIoy a lhiid MD sile lo deaI vilh lhe gioving lhieal
of Iianian nissiIes in IoIand and lhe Czech Repul3
Iic. The Medvedev goveinnenl picked up lhe lask of
opposing lhe lhiid-sile idea vilh enlhusiasn. In his
hisl AnnuaI Addiess lo lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy in No3
venlei 2OO8, he lhiealened lo nove |s|andcr 8&((&6#(
capalIe of caiiying nucIeai vaiheads inlo lhe KaIinin3
giad aiea and piovide olhei iesponses if and vhen lhe
Uniled Slales depIoys lhiid sile eIenenls inlo Laslein
Luiope.
89
B."#+ 0(588#.+&706 7/2-.#+8#0(2+#( '#+#
06(/ 8#-.&/-#, '&." 0 76#0+ &-.#-.&/- ./ 1/+#'0+-
lhe Uniled Slales and lhiealen U.S. Luiopean aIIies.
Ioi exanpIe, foinei RI Aii Ioice Connandei Ieli
Deikin suggesled adding nucIeai X-55 ciuise nis3
siIes and lhe nosl iecenl non-nucIeai veision, X-555
(lolh nay le caiiied on Tu-95M and Tu-16O slialegic
lonleis), lo augnenl lhe poIilicaI inpacl of |s|andcr
depIoynenls.
9O

Lxpediling voik on a loughei veision of lhe RI
MiIilaiy Docliine lhal vouId enphasize videi po3
lenliaI use of nucIeai veapons lecane an addilionaI
neasuie in lhe Russian aisenaI of asynneliic nea3
129
suies lo counlei lhe U.S. MD and olhei peiceived
Aneiican lechnoIogicaI advances. In eaiIy Augusl
2OO8, Russian nedia souices connenled liiey on a
docunenl aIIegedIy piepaied ly lhe RI Defense Min3
isliy lilIed Diafl Concepl of lhe DeveIopnenl of RI
Ained Ioices UnliI 2O3O. The ofhciaI slalus of lhe
docunenl vas uncIeai. In aII piolaliIily, il iepiesenl3
ed a liiaI laIIoon ly lhe Russian niIilaiy eslalIish3
nenl inlended lo check expeil and pulIic ieaclions in
Russia and alioad lo polenliaI changes lo lhe exisling
RI MiIilaiy Docliine.
91

In Decenlei 2OO8, Russian nedia souices caiiied
a liief ofhciaI slalenenl alliiluled lo Ainy-CeneiaI
Yuii aIuyevsky, lhen-depuly secielaiy of lhe Rus3
sian Secuiily CounciI (foineiIy head of lhe Russian
CeneiaI Slaff), announcing lhal lhe Secuiily CounciI,
logelhei vilh lhe Defense Minisliy, olhei inleiesled
lodies of slale povei, and lolh chanleis of lhe paiIia3
8#-. 7/88#-7#, ."# *+#*0+0.&/- /1 ."# -#' 8&6&.0+5
docliine of Russia.
92
aIuyevsky vas quoled saying:
I vas chaiged lo head lhe voiking gioups of lhe RI
Secuiily CounciI lo piepaie lhe diafl of a nev void3
ing of lhe counliys niIilaiy docliine lhal vouId ie3
spond lo conlenpoiaiy chaIIenges and lhieals, and
lhe exisling changes in lhe geopoIilicaI and niIilaiy-
poIilicaI silualion in lhe voiId, incIuding lhe gioving
ioIe of niIilaiy povei in poIilics. The nev veision
of lhe niIilaiy docliine shouId lecone lhe iesponse
lo lhe nosl lopicaI piolIens of assuiing Russian niIi3
laiy secuiily, incIuding lhe IegaI foundalions foi lhe
Iegilinale use (pratcprincncnic) of nucIeai veapons
as an insliunenl of slialegic deleiience.
93

AIong vilh Medvedevs lhieals of foivaid nissiIe
depIoynenls, ieviving lhe idea of a loughei ievi3
13O
sion of lhe MiIilaiy Docliine vas olviousIy inlended
lo coincide vilh lhe U.S. eIeclion canpaign. This vas
Moscovs vay of sending a nessage lo lhe fuluie U.S.
Adninislialion on piospecls of liIaleiaI slialegic ieIa3
lions.
Russian olseiveis aIso Iinked lhe uiiy of slale3
nenls on lhe inninenl appeaiance of lhe nev RI
MiIilaiy Docliine lo lhe nev effoil ly Defense Minis3
lei AnaloIii Seidyukov al iefoining RI Ained Ioices
undeilaken undei Dniliii Medvedev. Iion lhe veiy
leginning, lhe iefoin nel vilh consideialIe skepli3
cisn and ciilicisn ly vaiious niIilaiy and civiIian au3
lhoiilies.
94
Il cIeaiIy affecled lhe inleiesls of poveifuI
gioups in lhe niIilaiy-poIilicaI eslalIishnenl lesides
lhousands in lhe Ofhcei and CeneiaI Coips.
Announcing lhe iesunplion of voik on lhe RI
MiIilaiy Docliine, and especiaIIy lhe appoinlnenl of
Yuii aIuyevsky lo chaii lhe LdiloiiaI Connission lo
dehne lhe Docliines lasic paianeleis and sulslance,
805 "0%# +#*+#(#-.#, 0 7/-7#((&/- ./ ."# 7/-(#+%03
lives vho legan lo iegaid lhe Seidyukov iefoin as
an allenpl lo undeinine Russias aliIily lo engage
acliveIy in geopoIilics and, especiaIIy, lo use niIilaiy
nighl in lhe pionolion of Russian inleiesls alioad.
95

Long lefoie his foiced liansfei lo lhe RI Secuiily
CounciI fion lhe posl of CeneiaI Slaff Connandei,
aIuyevsky canpaigned foi luining lhe oiiginaI 2OOO
RI MiIilaiy Docliine inlo an aggiessive looI juslifying
."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( -/. /-65 1/+ +#.06&0.&/- *2+3
poses lul as a piaclicaI looI foi defealing aggiession
againsl Russia vilh lhe use of supeiioi convenlionaI
1/+7#(9 0-, #%#- 1/+ *+##8*.&/- 0-, (2**+#((&/- /1
aclivilies ininicaI lo Russias inleiesls oulside ils loi3
deis, foi exanpIe lhose ly leiioiisls and iadicaIs.
96

aIuyevsky aIso consislenlIy spoke in favoi of offei3
ing an adequale asynneliicaI iesponse lo Aneiican
131
and NATO piovocalions. In pailicuIai, he aigued in
suppoil of laigeling lhe pioposed eIenenls of lhe U.S.
lhiid MD sile in Laslein Luiope ly Russian laclicaI
and slialegic neans incIuding nucIeai.
97

In 2OO9, lhe cuiienl Secielaiy of lhe Secuiily Coun3
ciI and foinei Diiecloi of lhe IedeiaI Secuiily Seivice,
NikoIai Ialiushev, senl up sliII anolhei appaienl liiaI
laIIoon deaIing vilh expanded uses of nucIeai veap3
ons foi pieenplion and pievenlion in lhe RI MiIilaiy
Docliine ievision. WhiIe asseiling lhal Moscovs
nain goaI vas lo pieseive ils nucIeai povei slalus,
he cIained lhe Docliine viII change condilions foi
."# ,#*6/58#-. /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( ./ 066/' ."#&+ 2(#
nol onIy in gIolaI lul aIso iegionaI and even IocaI
conicls. Accoiding lo Ialiushev,
!"# 7/-,&.&/-( 1/+ ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( ./ +#3
peI aggiession vilh lhe use of convenlionaI veaponiy
in Iaige-scaIe, lul aIso in iegionaI and even in a IocaI
vai have leen coiiecled. Moieovei, in silualions ciili3
caI foi nalionaI secuiily, lhe inicling of a pievenlive
nucIeai sliike upon an aggiessoi is nol excIuded.
98

The nev RI MiIilaiy Docliine vas hnaIIy appioved
ly Iiesidenl Dniliii Medvedev ly viilue of his De3
ciee No. 146 of Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O. Al lhe sane line,
Medvedev signed The Ioundalions of Slale IoIicy
in lhe Aiea of NucIeai Deleiience unliI 2O2O, vhich
vas nol nade pulIic. Opinions diffeied on lhe sig3
nihcance of lhis veision of lhe Docliine, pailicuIaiIy
on lhe neaning of cIauses ieIaled lo nucIeai veapons
use. In lhe opinion of sone Russian expeils, il nade
one noie slep avay fion Russias olIigalion nol lo
le hisl in lhe use of nucIeai veapons.
99
> ?#(.#+-
olseivei noles in lhis conneclion:
132
Theie aie ieasons lo asseil lhal lhe Docliine sanclions
lhe use ly Russia of nucIeai veapons in pievenlive
(pieenplive) sliikes. In ils line, lhis cIause sliiied a
Iol of huIIalaIoo and ciilicisn in lhe Wesl. CuiienlIy,
lhis cIause has leen ienoved fion lhe lexl of lhe Doc3
liine. Hovevei, vas il ienoved as such` I do nol lhink
so. Il is piolalIe lhal lhe Ioundalions of Slale IoIicy
in lhe Aiea of NucIeai Deleiience lo 2O2O conpiise
slipuIalions on pievenlive (pieenplive) sliikes.
1OO
Olhei expeils nainlained lhal lhe nev MiIilaiy
Docliine appeais lo ieduce, al Ieasl sonevhal, lhe ioIe
of nucIeai veapons in Russias nalionaI secuiily poI3
icy.
1O1
In effecl, lhe 2O1O RI MiIilaiy Docliine slales:
The Russian Iedeialion ieseives lhe iighl lo use nu3
cIeai veapons in iesponse lo lhe use againsl il and
(oi) ils aIIies of nucIeai and olhei lypes of veapons
of nass desliuclion, as veII as in lhe case of an ag3
giession againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion vilh lhe use
/1 7/-%#-.&/-06 '#0*/-( '"#- ."# %#+5 #)&(.#-7# /1
lhe slale is pIaced undei lhieal.
Docliine-viiling undei Medvedev vas naiked
ly najoi conliadiclions. A chaiacleiislic exanpIe is
lhe RI Ioieign IoIicy Concepl adopled ly Dniliii
Medvedev on }une 12, 2OO8. The Concepl vas pio3
noled ly lhe KienIin as a denonslialion of Russias
iesoIve lo posilion ilseIf on lhe inleinalionaI aiena
as a civiIized, iuIe-of-Iav slale. Il piofessed Russias
liusl in inleinalionaI Iav as lhe nosl slalIe founda3
lion in ieIalions anong slales, and lhe ieIiance on lhe
UN lo ensuie inleinalionaI peace.
1O2

Lvenls of lhe Russian-Ceoigian vai lhal look pIace
shoilIy aflei lhe pulIicalion of lhe Concepl appaienl3
Iy foiced Medvedev and lhe Russian poIilicaI eIile lo
133
ieconsidei ils key posluIales. AIieady on Seplenlei 6,
2OO8, al lhe neeling of lhe RI Slale CounciI, lhe Rus3
sian Iiesidenl announced lhe discussion of Russias
nev foieign poIicy slialegy, i.e., lhe ieneved voik
on ievising lhe Concepl, lo pioceed logelhei vilh ac3
livilies ained al nalionaI secuiily consoIidalion.
1O3
On May 12, 2OO9, in his deciee No. 537, Dniliii
Medvedev appioved sliII anolhei Russian docliinaI
docunenl~The Slialegy of NalionaI Secuiily of lhe
Russian Iedeialion lo 2O2O (NSS). In a sense, il ie3
pIaced lhe iII-faled Ioieign IoIicy Concepl signed inlo
Iav Iess lhan a yeai lefoie.
1O4
!"# ,/728#-. +#&.#+0.#,
lhal lhe Uniled Slales and NATO piesenl lhieals lo
Russian niIilaiy secuiily:
Thieals lo (Russian) niIilaiy secuiily incIude: poIi3
cies of a nunlei of Ieading foieign counliies ained
al allainnenl of oveivheIning doninance in lhe niIi3
laiy spheie, piinaiiIy in slialegic nucIeai foices, ly
neans of deveIoping piecision, infoinalion and olhei
high-lech neans of niIilaiy vaifaie, slialegic veapon
syslens vilh non-nucIeai vaiheads, foinalion, in a
uniIaleiaI fashion, of lhe gIolaI syslen of anli-nissiIe
defense and niIilaiizalion of lhe oulei space, vhich
805 6#0, ./ 0 -#' 6//* &- ."# 0+8( +07#9 0( '#66 0(
pioIifeialion of nucIeai, chenicaI and lioIogicaI lech3
noIogies, pioduclion of nass desliuclion veapons oi
lheii conponenls and neans of deIiveiy. The slale of
lhe niIilaiy secuiily of lhe Russian Iedeialion and ils
aIIies is leing fuilhei negaliveIy affecled ly lhe de3
pailuie fion inleinalionaI agieenenls in lhe aiea of
lhe Iinilalion and ieduclion of veapons, as veII as ly
aclions ained al lhe disiuplion of lhe slaliIily of lhe
(5(.#8( /1 (.0.# 0-, 8&6&.0+5 7/880-,9 8&((&6# #0+65
vaining, space conlioI, lhe funclioning of slialegic
-276#0+ 1/+7#(9 &-(.0660.&/-( /1 -276#0+ '0+"#0, (./+3
age, nucIeai eneigy, nucIeai and chenicaI indusliies,
and olhei polenliaIIy hazaidous inslaIIalions.
1O5
134
Measuies lo deaI vilh lhe alove lhieals veie,
hovevei, ialhei caulious and anliguous. esides
puisuing lhe iefoin of lhe RI Ained Ioices lo give
il a lolaIIy nev inage, lhe NSS caIIed foi inpioving
slialegic deleiience and nalionaI defense. Slialegic
deleiience vas dehned as inpIying lhe deveIop3
8#-. 0-, (5(.#8&7 &8*6#8#-.0.&/- /1 0 7/8*6#) /1
&-.#++#60.#, */6&.&7069 ,&*6/80.&79 8&6&.0+59 #7/-/8&79
infoinalion and olhei neasuies ained al foieslaIIing
oi ieducing lhe lhieal of desliuclive aclions ly lhe
aggiessoi slale (coaIilion of slales).
1O6
Il vas fuilhei
cIaiihed:
Slialegic deleiience is conducled vilh lhe use of
lhe econonic capaliIilies of lhe slale, incIuding lhe
iesouice suppoil of lhe nalionaI secuiily foices ly
neans of deveIoping lhe syslen of niIilaiy-paliiolic
educalion of RI cilizens, as veII as lhe niIilaiy infia3
sliucluie and lhe syslen of nanaging lhe niIilaiy oi3
ganizalion of lhe slale.
1O7
As fai as nalionaI defense is conceined, lhe NSS
slipuIaled:
The RI assuies nalionaI defense on lhe lasis of lhe
piincipIes of ialionaI sufhciency and effecliveness, in3
cIuding ly nelhods and neans of non-niIilaiy ieac3
lion, nechanisns of pulIic dipIonacy, peacekeeping
and inleinalionaI niIilaiy coopeialion. MiIilaiy secu3
iily is assuied ly neans of deveIoping and inpioving
lhe niIilaiy oiganizalion of lhe slale and lhe defense
polenliaI, as veII as ly eainaiking foi lhese puiposes
of sufhcienl hnanciaI, naleiiaI and olhei iesouices.
1O8

The Slialegy of NalionaI Secuiily of lhe Russian
Iedeialion lo 2O2O sliuck nany olseiveis in Russia
as a faiiIy ecIeclic, pooiIy oiganized and pooiIy ediled
docunenl.
1O9
135
6;5673!-;5< :8268:=-;5! 45? 2847-=-8!
?8@-5-5O 23!!-45 ?;6=2-58!
aiiing unpiediclalIe najoi changes al lhe lop of
lhe Russian iuIing eIile oi dianalic liansfoinalions in
lhe inleinaI Russian silualion and/oi Russias inlei3
nalionaI enviionnenl, Russian docliinaI lhinking viII
conlinue lo le affecled ly lhe foIIoving ciicunslanc3
es, consideialions, and peiceplions lhal conliiluled lo
lhe eneigence iecenl Russian slialegic docunenls.
:$#$.0'$( =B#%$" 4,,%,,G%.",D
Despile iepealed caIIs foi slialegic pailneiship
lelveen Russia and lhe Wesl, and Iiniled piogiess
&- (#6#7. 0+#0(9 (27" 0( 0+8( 7/-.+/69 0( '#66 0( (/8#
coopeialion in aieas vheie Russian and U.S. inlei3
esls and poIicies conveige, lhe iuIing poIilicaI eIile
in Moscov ienains deepIy suspicious of Aneiican
inlenlions and poIicies. The Russians usuaIIy see
Aneiican advances, especiaIIy in lhe geopoIilicaI and
niIilaiy-lechnoIogicaI aieas, as inliinsicaIIy ininicaI
lo Russian inleiesls. In a lypicaI aIainisl assessnenl
ly CoIoneI CeneiaI Andiei NikoIaev, Chaiinan of lhe
Slale Duna Defense Connillee:
The gap lelveen good inlenlions on eslalIishing
'/+6, *#07# 0-, ."# +#06 */6&75 /- ."# 2(# /1 1/+7#
is nol dininishing lul expanding. Tendency lo niIi3
laiizing lhe inleinalionaI Iife is leconing noie and
noie avesone. . . . In iecenl yeais sone piogiess
vas achieved in lhe spheie of ieducing and Iiniling
veapons. Hovevei, lhal piocess noslIy invoIved
quaIilalive paianeleis of lhe nan-kiIIing indusliy,
'"&6# =20-.&.0.&%# .+0-(1/+80.&/-( &- ."# 0+#0 /1 ."#
136
7+#0.&/- /1 -#' '#0*/- (5(.#8( 0-, *0+.&7260+65 -#'
nelhods of conducling conlenpoiaiy vaifaie ienain
vilhoul allenlion and ciilicaI anaIysis. High pieci3
sion veapons, ains lased on nev physicaI piincipIes,
nev nelhods of using space foi lhe conducl of vai.
have no IegaI oi noiaI Iinils. Il is difhcuIl lo laIk
aloul inleinalionaI IegaI Iinilalions foi lhe nev iace
&- (2*#+ -#' '#0*/-( '"#- ."# &-.#+-0.&/-06 60' &(
suljecled lo lhe ievision ly slales (lhe U.S., iilain)
lhal shouId le guaianlois of inleinalionaI slaliIily.
Today, lhe U.S. and NATO have occupied such sliale3
gic loundaiies in Luiope and lhe CenliaI Asian iegion
lhal lhey couId nol even diean aloul lefoie. MiIilaiy
sliucluies, ciealed foi puiposes of lhe CoId Wai aie
nol onIy leing pieseived lul aie aIso expanding.
Indeed, loday, lheie exisls peihaps no cIeai lhieal foi
Russia. ul vhal viII happen lonoiiov vhen lhe laI3
ance of foices changes dianalicaIIy` In case of need,
NATO nay cieale any niIilaiy scenaiio lhal suils ils
inleiesls. Iike in lhe aIkans.
110

The pievaiIing Russian opinion is lhal lhe Uniled
Slales seeks lo eslalIish ils doninance in lolh offen3
sive and defensive slialegic veapons. Cuiienl U.S.
chanpionship of lolaI nucIeai aloIilion is aIso gen3
eiaIIy suspecl despile Moscovs eageiness lo pay Iip
seivice lo lhe alsliacl ideaI of lhe non-nucIeai voiId.
NucIeai zeio pioposaIs aie oflen seen as a lhinIy
veiIed allenpl lo disain Russia ly neuliaIizing ils
nucIeai polenliaI. A videIy heId viev anong Russian
expeils is lhal lheii counliy vouId nol le alIe lo con3
pele vilh lhe Uniled Slales and olhei Weslein poveis
and piolalIy even China in advanced non-nucIeai
syslens, and nay evenluaIIy lecone viclin of pies3
suies and lIacknaiI if Iefl vilhoul nucIeai veapons:
Today, nucIeai veapons aie a facloi of deleiience.
Hovevei, lake a cIosei Iook: lhe Aneiicans aie aI3
137
ieady deveIoping lhe lheoiy of slialegic non-nucIeai
deleiience. AcluaI use of nucIeai veapons. puls an
end lo any deleiience lecause il iesuIls in iiieveisilIe
piocesses. In conliasl, slialegic high-piecision non-
nucIeai veapons nay le used lolh foi deleiience and
punishnenl. This is vhy in Aneiica. . . . lhey aie nov
seiiousIy Iooking al slialegic non-nucIeai deleiience
lhal offeis signihcanlIy noie exilIe capaliIilies foi
use and punishnenl of any aggiessoi specihcaIIy foi
puiposes of deleiience.
111

InpoilanlIy, since lhe coIIapse of lhe lipoIai
voiId, Russian poIicynakeis no Iongei lase lheii niI3
ilaiy and foieign poIicy decisions onIy on lhe anaIy3
sis of lhe slale of ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled Slales and
NATO. CuiienlIy, Russian Ieadeis iecognize lhe ex3
islence and giovlh of nuIlipIe souices of lhieals and
chaIIenges lo lheii counliy in pioxinily lo Russian
loideis and acioss lhe voiId. Il is highIy doullfuI
lhal, even if liIaleiaI U.S.-Russian ieIalions niiacu3
IousIy evoIved inlo a slialegic pailneiship in lhe neai
fuluie, Moscov vouId le piepaied lo give up nucIeai
veapons as an uIlinale guaianlee of Russian secuiily.
In viev of lhe peisislenlIy negalive Russian lhieal
assessnenls, il is highIy queslionalIe lhal lhe Rus3
sian niIilaiy-poIilicaI Ieadeiship vouId nake diaslic
changes lo lheii counliys docliines and slialegies in
lhe foieseealIe fuluie, Iel aIone ieIinquish insliunenls
of povei painslakingIy iesloied in iecenl yeais, pai3
licuIaiIy lhe Slialegic NucIeai Ioices. A noie piol3
alIe deveIopnenl vouId le lhe incIusion inlo Russian
docliinaI docunenls of ceilain alsliacl slalenenls on
lenign Russian inlenlions lhal vouId le alliaclive lo
lhe geneiaI pulIic lul lolaIIy unlinding foi poIicy3
nakeis. In effecl, lhis is exaclIy lhe vay Soviel poIicies
'#+# *+#(#-.#, ./ ."# /2.(&,# '/+6, 0( 7/8*#-,&28(
138
of giand decIaialions lhal oflen had no Iink lo ieaI in3
lenlions and aclions of lhe poIilicaI eIile.
2%E'$.(% 0. Q4?D
Russian poIilicians and expeils ienain noslaIgic
of lhe slialegic laIance paiadign lased on MAD and
vouId Iike lo go lack lo siniIai aiiangenenls in cui3
ienl U.S.-RI slialegic ieIalions. Many of lhen vouId
acluaIIy Iike lhe liIaleiaI slialegic laIance lo ienain
lhe foundalion of gIolaI slaliIily. As expIained Majoi
CeneiaI (Rel.) VIadinii eIous:
Duiing lhe CoId Wai lheie eneiged an appioxinale
laIance lelveen lolh sides in slialegic offensive
veapons lhal conliiluled naluiaIIy lo slialegic sla3
liIily and lhe concepl of nucIeai deleiience lased
/- ."# 7#-.+06 8/,#6 /1 82.206 0((2+#, ,#(.+27.&/-
(MAD) lhal has nevei Iosl ils lopicaIily. The piocess
of gIolaIizalion and 'iesliucluiing of lhe voiId oidei
cieales sliong pienonilions since neilhei a unipoIai,
noi a nuIli-poIai syslen vouId le alIe lo assuie lhe
desiied gIolaI slaliIily. The unipoIai nodeI cannol do
lhal lecause of lhe exliene egocenliisn of lhe singIe
slale al ils cenlei, and lhe nuIli-poIai one lecause of
lhe inleiaclion of lhe noslIy anlagonislic congIonei3
ale of veclois of geopoIilicaI and geo-slialegic inleiesls
of nany counliies. Undei lhese condilions, lhe ioIe of
lhe nucIeai poIicies, especiaIIy of lhe U.S. and Russia
lhal inheiiled huge aisenaIs of nucIeai veapons and
.+0,&.&/-06 %&#'( /- ."#&+ 8&6&.0+5 2(#( 1+/8 ."# .&8#
of lhe CoId Wai, is cIeaiIy gioving.
112
Undei lolh Iiesidenls Iulin and Medvedev, lhe
concepl of MAD conlinued lo foin lhe de-faclo la3
sis of Russian vievs on liIaleiaI ieIalions vilh lhe
Uniled Slales in lhe nucIeai spheie despile lhe foinaI
139
leininalion of lhe CoId Wai and lhe disappeaiance
of lhe nain docunenl lhal used lo codify MAD-lype
ieIalionship~lhe AMT. In lhe viev of nany Russian
expeils:
Despile lhe changes in lhe voiId, in U.S.-Russian ieIa3
lions and lhe poIicies of lolh counliies, in lheii doc3
liines and opeialionaI pIans foi lhe use of slialegic
nucIeai foices, lolh Russia and lhe U.S.A. conlinue
./ *+/7##, 1+/8 ."# 7/-7#*. /1 82.206 -276#0+ ,#.#+3
+#-7#
113
.
Russia viII nosl piolalIy conlinue slicking lo ils
opposilion lo MD and lhe need lo iesloie foinaI
Iinkages lelveen slialegic offensive and defensive
syslens in Iine vilh lhe cIassicaI nodeI of MAD.
114

Hovevei, expeil denands in favoi of deveIoping
Russias ovn MD,
115
0( '#66 0( /."#+ "&3.#7" (5(.#8(9
such as non-nucIeai slialegic nissiIes aie gioving.
116

Il nay nol le excIuded lhal lhe niIilaiy-poIilicaI Iead3
eiship viII soonei oi Ialei iecognize lhe vaIidily of
lhese denands. Russias inleiesl in coopeialion vilh
lhe Uniled Slales and olhei lechnoIogicaI poveis in
deveIoping such syslens nay giov in lhe fuluie and
Iead lo changes in adananl Russian vievs on offen3
sive-defensive Iinkages.
!%$#(B Y0# !"#$"%&'( :$#'"[D
The Russian psyche vas liaunalized ly lhe coI3
Iapse of lhe Soviel Union. y and Iaige, lhe nev Rus3
sian poIicynaking eIile lhal piogiessiveIy acquiied
a dislincl nalionaIislic oiienlalion, iefuses lo alide
ly lhe gIolaI slalus-quo ."0. +#(#+%#( /-65 (#7/-,3
aiy ioIes foi Russia in voiId affaiis. The nucIeai aiea
is viiluaIIy lhe onIy aiea vheie Russia had ielained
14O
appioxinale equaIily of capaliIilies vilh lhe Uniled
Slales.
Il is vilh lhis quasi-paiily in nucIeai polenliaIs in
nind, and enloIdened ly lhe piogiess in ieconsliucl3
ing Russias econonic and niIilaiy polenliaI as lhe ie3
suIl of favoialIy changing gIolaI piices foi eneigy iav
naleiiaIs, lhal in eaiIy 2OO7 lhe KienIin slepped up
effoils lo iecIain giealei poIilicaI equaIily vilh Wash3
inglon in gIolaI and iegionaI affaiis. In a Iandnaik
piesenlalion al lhe Munich Confeience on Secuiily
IoIicy (Ieliuaiy 1O, 2OO7), Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin
decIaied Russian iejeclion of Aneiican uniIaleiaIisn
in inleinalionaI affaiis.
117
The RI Iiesidenl accused lhe Uniled Slales of
oveislepping ils nalionaI loideis in eveiy vay
and essenliaIIy decIaied Moscovs deleininalion lo
oppose Washinglons uniIaleiaI and fiequenlIy iI3
Iegilinale aclions.
118
Mi. Iulin ieileialed Russias
inlenseIy negalive ieaclions lo NATOs advancenenl
lovaids ils loideis, U.S. MD-ieIaled depIoynenls
in Laslein Luiope, and space niIilaiizalion and ie3
asseiled lhal his goveinnenl is piepaied lo piovide
asynneliic iesponses lo lhese peiceived lhieals lo
Russian secuiily.
119
InpoilanlIy, Dniliii Medvedev,
vhiIe sIighlIy loning dovn lhe anli-Aneiican iheloiic
of his piedecessoi in his pulIic slalenenls, essenliaIIy
conlinued lhe ciilique of Aneiican gIolaI poIicies af3
lei leconing lhe RI Iiesidenl.
12O

LileiaI Russian poIilicians and expeils veie
lhiiIIed lo heai fion lhe nev U.S. Adninislialion
lhal il pIans lo slop lhe deveIopnenl of nev nucIeai
veapons, voik vilh Russia lo lake U.S. and Russian
laIIislic nissiIes off haii liiggei aIeil, and seek dia3
nalic ieduclions in U.S. and Russian slockpiIes of
nucIeai veapons and naleiiaI.
121
In Iine vilh lhese
141
goaIs and lhe pionise lo exlend a hand if olheis aie
viIIing lo uncIench lheii hsl,
122
lolh sides iushed lo
ienev slialegic ains conlioI negolialions on a foIIov-
on agieenenl lo START I
123
and lioadei aieas of co3
opeialion lo ieduce lhe nunlei of nucIeai veapons
0-, *+#%#-. 12+."#+ *+/6&1#+0.&/- &- 077/+,0-7# '&."
joinl slalenenls issued ly Iiesidenl Olana and Rus3
sian Iiesidenl Dniliii Medvedev in London on ApiiI
1, 2OO9.
124

The signing of lhe nev START agieenenl lioughl
nany in Moscov lo neai-euphoiia. In Russian eyes, il
vindicaled Russian adheience lo MAD and lhe Iink3
age lelveen slialegic offensive and defensive veap3
ons, and caiiied a pionise of Iiniling lhe U.S. gIolaI
MD effoil, especiaIIy as fai as depIoynenls cIose
lo Russian loideis aie conceined. The KienIin viII
nosl piolalIy le alIe lo assuie lhe liealys ialihca3
lion in lhe Slale Duna vheie il enjoys a confoilalIe
najoiily (lolh counliies need lo pioceed lo lhe iali3
hcalion sinuIlaneousIy). The silualion in lhe Uniled
Slales, vheie nany queslion lhe lasic MAD-oiienled
*+#8&(# /1 ."# .+#0.59 ."# 26.&80.# %062# &. 805 "0%#
foi U.S. secuiily, and lhe diieclion il gives lo U.S. nu3
cIeai slialegy, nay le veiy diffeienl.
125
In case START
ialihcalion slaIIs oi lhe liealy faiIs lo enlei inlo foice
aIlogelhei, lhe Russian Iedeialion nay expeiience
an upsuige in anli-Aneiicanisn. This is lound lo le
ieecled al sone slage in Russia ieviiling ils niIi3
laiy and foieign poIicy guideIines. Lven if lhe liealy
is ialihed, Russia nay change ils allilude lovaids il
depending on lhe on-going U.S. MD piogians in Lu3
iope and olhei iegions in accoidance vilh Moscovs
cIaiifying slalenenl on nissiIe defense al lhe signing
of START.
126

142
-."%#.$E 2*,,'$. 8F0E*"'0.D
Russias niIilaiy and foieign poIicies depend on
inleinaI poIilicaI, econonic, and secuiily slaliIily. Al
lhis poinl, lhe Medvedev-Iulin duunviiale appeais
lo le in conlioI of lhe silualion in lhe counliy. Hov3
evei, il faces nounling chaIIenges:
- Russia faiIed lo evoIve inlo an open denocia3
cy-lased sociely. An aulhoiilaiian iegine nay
hoId lhe counliy logelhei foi a ieIaliveIy Iong
line, especiaIIy if il induIges in popuIisn and
has iesouices lo nainlain a ieasonalIy ieIi3
alIe iepiessive appaialus, dociIe IegisIaluie
and nass nedia. Hovevei, as lhe Soviel and
/."#+ (&8&60+ #)*#+&#-7#( ,#8/-(.+0.#9 7/660*(#
of lhis lype of a iegine usuaIIy cones piecipi3
lousIy and acquiies devaslaling piopoilions.
Regine changes lhal look pIace in sone foinei
Soviel iepulIics seive as peilinenl exanpIes.
- The gIolaI and inleinaI Russian econonic cii3
ses foiced lhe goveinnenl lo nake adjuslnenls
lo anlilious pIans of expansion and giovlh
in nany aieas, incIuding defense nodeiniza3
lion. Resouices pieviousIy avaiIalIe fion such
souices as expoils of oiI and gas and veie in
pail used lo nainlain slaliIily, aie dvindIing.
The gap lelveen lhe haves and lhe have-nols
in Russia is expanding iapidIy, fueIing pulIic
disconlenl.
- The aulhoiilies aie IaigeIy incapalIe of eiadi3
caling nassive coiiuplion and ciininaIily, as
veII as lhe ighl of capilaI fion Russia lhal
couId olheivise le used foi deveIopnenl.
127
- A+#-#.&7 0..#8*.( ./ (.+#086&-#9 +#(.+27.2+# 0-,
inpiove lhe peifoinance of lhe goveinnenl
appaialus have leen ineffeclive.
143
- Refoins of lhe ainy, Iav-enfoicenenl and ju3
diciaI syslens lhal liadilionaIIy piovide slaliI3
ily and secuiily foi lhe iegine aie faiIing.
- Accoiding lo sone voisl-case piediclions,
Russia nay soon le unalIe lo effecliveIy de3
fend ilseIf vilh convenlionaI foices. Undei lhis
scenaiio, lhe enphasis on nucIeai veapons
use viII undoulledIy giov.
- Seiious deleiioialion oi evenluaI coIIapse of
Iav-and-oidei in lhe counliy nay again iaise
."# %&.06 =2#(.&/- /1 (#72+&.5 0-, (01#.5 /1 -23
76#0+ 0-, /."#+ (#-(&.&%# 80.#+&06( 0-, &-(.063
Ialions, and polenliaI WMD pioIifeialion fion
Russian souices.
- The seeningIy anicalIe ieIalionship lelveen
lvo lop Russian Ieadeis nay deleiioiale oi
lieak dovn, especiaIIy if lhe duunviiale cones
2-,#+ (#+&/2( *+#((2+#( 1+/8 /**/-#-.(9 +&%06(9
and an unhappy and iiale pulIic, incIuding lhe
niIilaiy and olhei peopIe in unifoin.
!"#(# 0-, 80-5 /."#+ (/ 10+ 2-1/+#(##- ,#%#63
opnenls nay change lhe Russian scene. Any najoi
liansfoinalions in Russia aie lound lo nodify lhal
counliys poIicies, slaled slialegic goaIs and docliines.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 S
1. On May 12, 2O1O, The Russian Iedeialion (RI) Ioieign
Minisliy announced il is consideiing lhe possiliIily of pulIi3
cizing dala on ils nucIeai veapons foIIoving siniIai noves ly
lhe Uniled Slales and Cieal iilain and in lhe spiiil of lhe nev
ains conlioI liealy signed ly U.S. Iiesidenl aiack Olana and
RI Iiesidenl Dniliii Medvedev in Iiague, lhe Czech RepulIic,
on May 8, 2O1O. See Russia May DivuIge Dala on Ils NucIeai
AisenaI, R|A Nctcs|i, May 12, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion
144
arnq.|t/ru/qadcrncc-cruznic/901/24532. Il has nol leen indicaled,
hovevei, vhelhei Moscov inlends lo incIude lhe nunleis and
.5*#( /1 .07.&706 -276#0+ '#0*/-( &- &.( */((#((&/- &1 0-, '"#-
lhis infoinalion is ieIeased.
2. Ioi a noie delaiIed assessnenl of lhese issues, see Andiei
Shounikhin, CoaIs and Melhods of Russian Ains ConlioI IoIi3
cy: InpIicalions foi U.S. Secuiily, Na|icna| |ns|i|u|c fcr Puo|ic Pc|-
icq, Augusl 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion nipp.crg/Puo|ica|icn/Dcun|cads/
Puo|ica|icn20Arcnitc20PD|/Russian20Arns20Ccn|rc|20
uco.pdf.
3. The KienIin ieIies on vaiious inslilulionaI nechanisns
in dehning lhe Russian niIilaiy, incIuding nucIeai and foieign
poIicy. They incIude lhe Russian Secuiily CounciI, lhe piesiden3
liaI adninislialion, appiopiiale IegisIalive and lechnicaI lodies
of lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy~lhe Russian lvo-chanlei paiIianenl
consisling of lhe Slale Duna and lhe CounciI of Iedeialion, such
0( ."# 7/88&..##( 0-, 7/88&((&/-( /- ,#1#-(#9 -0.&/-06 (#72+&.59
and inleinalionaI affaiis, as veII as piofessionaI appaialuses of
goveinnenl ninisliies and olhei lodies, pailicuIaiIy lhe Ioieign
Minisliy of lhe Russian Iedeialion, lhe Defense Minisliy, and lhe
Minisliy of Alonic Lneigy. ReIaliveIy speaking, lheie is cuiienlIy
a giealei vaiiely of souices foi niIilaiy and foieign poIicynak3
ing lhan undei lhe Soviel syslen. The ongoing, aIleil sIov, pio3
cess of lhe foinalion of civiI sociely in Russia, incIuding giealei
1+##,/8 /1 (*##7" 0-, #)*+#((&/- 066/'#, %0+&/2( 070,#8&7 0-,
educalionaI inslilulions, pulIic oiganizalions, lhink-lanks, expeil
0((/7&0.&/-(9 &-,&%&,206 (*#7&06&(.(9 0-, +#*+#(#-.0.&%#( /1 80((
nedia lo speak fieeIy on foieign and niIilaiy nalleis, pailicu3
IaiIy ains conlioI poIicy and negolialion, lhe niIilaiy iefoin, and
civiIian conlioI of lhe ained foices. The CounciI on Ioieign and
Defense IoIicy (see uuu.stcp.ru), Cenlei foi Ains ConlioI, Lnei3
gy and LnviionnenlaI Sludies al lhe Moscov Inslilule of Ihysics
and TechnoIogy (see uuu.arnsccn|rc|.ru/), The Russian Cenlei foi
IoIicy Sludies (see uuu.pirccn|cr.crg), and lhe Inslilule foi IoIili3
caI and MiIilaiy AnaIysis (see uuu.ipna.ru).
4. See Andiei Shounikhin, Change and Conlinuily in Rus3
sian Ains ConlioI, Ccnpara|itc S|ra|cgq, VoI. 28, Issue 2, 2OO9,
pp. 14O-153.
145
5. Andiei A. Cionyko, To e Renenleied, VoI. II, Mos3
cov, Russia: Pc|i|izda|, 199O, p. 221.
6. The Russians piide lhenseIves on leing lhe hisl in lhe
voiId lo lesl a piololype laIIislic nissiIe inleiceploi on Maich
4, 1961, al lhe Saiy-Shagan lesling giound neai Lake aIkhash.
(See The iilh of Syslen 'A, Vccnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Kuricr, VoI.
33, No. 149, Augusl 5, 2OO6, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.tp|-
ncus.ru/ar|ic|c.asp?pr_sign=arcnitc.2006.149.ar|ic|cs.arnq_03). The
vaihead used vas a convenlionaI one and inleicepled a laIIislic
nissiIe of lhe R-12 lype lhal vas noving al lhe speed of 3 kn pei
second. See SlanisIav Menshikov, MissiIe Defense: A Russian
Ieispeclive, |CAAR-Russia Papcr, }uIy 21, 2OO2, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.fas|ccn|cr.ru/ccaar/UNdraf|.PD|).
7. See AnaloIii Doliynin, Hign|q Ccnjdcn|ia|. Anoassadcr in
lasning|cn undcr Six U.S. Prcsidcn|s, 1962-1986, Moscov, Russia:
Avloi IulIisheis, 1997, in Russian, p. 133.
8. |oid., pp. 15O-152.
9. Menshikov.
1O. See MissiIe Defense and lhe AM Tiealy, A Slalus Re3
poil, Iacl Sheel, SlockhoIn, Sveden: SlockhoIn InleinalionaI
Ieace Reseaich Inslilule, }une 2OO1, avaiIalIe fion cdi|crs.sipri.sc/
puos/|ac|sncc|/Missi|c_dcfcncc.pdf.
11. IaveI Iodvig, ed., Russian S|ra|cgic Nuc|car |crccs, (Wilh
conliilulions fion OIeg ukhaiin, Tinui Kadyshev, Lugene Mi3
asnikov, IaveI Iodvig, Igoi Sulyagin, Maxin Taiasenko, and o3
iis ZheIezov), Canliidge, MA: MIT Iiess, 2OO1, pp. 62O-622.
12. See R. M. Dyachkov, The Hisloiy of lhe ConcIusion of lhe
Tiealy on Liniling AnlilaIIislic MissiIe Defense of 1972, |X |n-
|crna|icna| Ccnfcrcncc |cncncsct-2002, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nis|.
nsu.ru/Scicncc/|MNS2002/23.n|n.
13. See A. A. Cionyko, A. A. essneilnykh, I. ZhiIin, C.
M. Koinienko, and V.I. Ieliovskii, eds., Tnc S|rugg|c cf |nc USSR
agains| Nuc|car Dangcr, Arns Racc and fcr Disarnancn|. Dccuncn|s
and Ma|cria|s, Moscov, Russia: Pc|i|izda|, 1987, in Russian.
146
14. See Concepls of SNI DeveIopnenl of lhe USSR in 4Os-
9Os, Arns.ru, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arns.ru/nuc|car/1.
n|n.
15. Richaid Iipes, Why lhe Soviel Union Thinks Il CouId
Iighl and Win a NucIeai Wai, iepiinled fion Ccnncn|arq, 1977,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.c|pt.crg/oi||s_pagc/nuc|car.n|n|.
16. Addiess ly lhe CeneiaI Secielaiy of lhe CC of CISU,
Chaiinan of lhe Iiesidiun of lhe USSR Supiene Soviel lo lhe
Second SpeciaI Session of lhe UN, }une 15, 1982, in Russian,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.nas|cdic.ru/pc|i|tnc/18_6/ccno.n|n.
17. Doliynin, pp. 598-599.
18. |oid., pp. 623- 629.
19. MikhaiI Coilachev, Menoiis, Nev Yoik: DoulIe3
day,1996, pp. 4O6-4O8.
2O. Coilachev.
21. See Andiei Kokoshin, The Conpelilion of 'AsynneliicaI
Responses egan in lhe 8Os, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, }uIy
7, 2OO7, in Russian.
22. Maksin KaIashnikov, The Lnpiies ioken Svoid,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.c-|io.infc/occ|.pnp?id=1121022183cp=0.
23. Coilachev, pp. 445, 451.
24. |oid., Menshikov.
25. Iodvig, ed., Russian Slialegic NucIeai Ioices, p. 655.
26. Doliynin, p. 661.
27. |oid., Menshikov.
28. AIeksandi CoIls, Why Russia Has Lel Ils NucIeai Aise3
naI Co foi Soap and Sausage, Kcnscnc|s|aqa Pratda, Seplenlei
5, 1995, avaiIalIe fion uuu.fas.crg/ncus/russia/1995/sct95175.n|n.
147
29. YeIlsin RallIes NucIeai Salie aflei Ciilicisn ovei Chech3
nya, Disarnancn| Dip|cnacq, Issue No. 42, Decenlei 1999, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.acrcnqn.crg.u|/|cx|cn|q/dd/dd42/42saorc.n|n.
3O. See Ashlon . Cailei, U.S. Assislance lo lhe Nev Inde3
pendenl Slales of lhe Ioinei Soviel Union (ISU) in DisnanlIing
Theii Weapons of Mass Desliuclion, CongiessionaI Heaiings,
SpeciaI Weapons: NucIeai, ChenicaI, ioIogicaI and MissiIe,
Hcusc |crcign Affairs Ccnni||cc, Seplenlei 21, 1993, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.fas.crg/spp/s|aruars/ccngrcss/1993_n/930921-asn.n|n.
31. Tnc |irs|-S|ri|c Dcc|rinc9 Sci||a.ru, }une, 13, 2O1O, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.sci||a.ru/ccn|cn|/ticu/3533/2/.
32. See Theie WiII e No RAKs vilhoul MAKs, Rcssiis|aqa
Gazc|a, Maich 11, 1999, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ouran.ru/n|n/11-3-99.
n|n.
33. Deciee No. 1833 vas sulnilled foi lhe consideialion of lhe
RI IedeiaI AssenlIy (paiIianenl) eIecled on Decenlei 12, 1993,
"/'#%#+9 ."# 60..#+ +#12(#, ./ 7/-(&,#+ &. 1/+ +#0(/-( /1 7/-.&-2#,
confionlalion lelveen lhe execulive and IegisIalive lianches in
Russia.
34. See Rylkin Reasseils Moscovs Righl To Use NucIeai
Weapons, Radics|an|siqa ||nc Mcs|tq, May 13, 1997, G|coa|Sccu-
ri|q.crg, avaiIalIe fion uuu.g|coa|sccuri|q.crg/und/|iorarq/ncus/
russia/1997/drsct05131997000591.n|n.
35. The Tiealy vas signed on }anuaiy 3, 1993, ly Iiesidenl
Ceoige ush, Si., and Iiesidenl oiis YeIlsin. Il codihed lhe }oinl
Undeislanding aiiived al ly lhe lvo Iiesidenls al lhe Washing3
lon sunnil on }une 17, 1992. The U.S. Senale gave ils advice and
consenl lo ialihcalion of START II on }anuaiy 26, 1996. Ralihca3
lion of lhe Tiealy in lhe Russian Duna pioved eIusive foi YeIlsin
in viev of lhe sliong opposilion of lhe Russian IegisIaluie. See
Lugene Myasnikov, IiolIens of START-2 Tiealy Ralihcalion in
Russia. Is START-3 IossilIe` Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Seplenlei 12,
1996, in Russian.
148
36. See Andie de Nesneia, Who Is Iulin` G|coa|Sccuri|q.
crg, avaiIalIe fion uuu.g|coa|sccuri|q.crg/und/|iorarq/ncus/russia
/2000/000128-rus1.n|n.
37. See The Insideis Cuide lo VIadinii Iulin, Oclolei
26, 2OO6, CNN |n|crna|icna|, avaiIalIe fion cdi|icn.cnn.ccn/2006/
lOR|D/curcpc/10/25/insidcr.pu|in/.
38. See VIadinii Iulin Lines Up lhe Iailies Undei lhe VeilicaI
of Iovei, Ncusru.ccn, ApiiI 15, 2OO5, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.ncsccu2000.ru/ncus/ticu2.asp?|d=13767c|dTqpc=2, The
Russian Opposilion Is Unhappy vilh lhe Iovei 'VeilicaI uiIl ly
Iulin, |nfcrna|icn-Ana|q|ic Pcr|a| cf |nc Unicn S|a|c, }uIy 9, 2OO6,
in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.scquz.oq/scccnd.aspx?dccuncn|=21
540cuid=4cpagc=4c|qpc=Qua|ijci.
39. The Russian Opposilion Is Unhappy vilh lhe Iovei
'VeilicaI uiIl ly Iulin.
4O. See Seigei Koilunov, On lhe QuaIily of lhe NalionaI
LIile, |n|c||igcn|, }anuaiy 23, 2OO6, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.c-sccic|q.ru/uind.pnp?|D=244495csccn=1.
41. See V. S. LIislialov, The NalionaI Language and NalionaI
Idea, Granc|a.ru, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.granc|a.ru/
nag_ruo.n|n|?id=54, The Russian NalionaI Idea, Vcs|c|14.ru. in
Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.tcs|c|14.ru/?pagc=idca.
42. See VIadinii Iulin, Speech al lhe enediclion Cei3
enony of lhe Cioss-and-annei Iiocession, Prcsidcn| cf Russia
Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/ap-
pcars/2003/07/31/1518_|qpc63374_49692.sn|n|.
43. Dnilii Tienin, Russias Thieal Ieiceplion and Slialegic
Iosluie, Russian Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq undcr Pu|in. U.S. and Russian
Pcrspcc|itcs, CaiIisIe, IA: Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy
Wai CoIIege, Novenlei 2OO7, p. 35.
44. VIadinii Iulin, AnnuaI Addiess lo lhe IedeiaI Assen3
lIy of lhe Russian Iedeialion, Prcsidcn| cf Russia Ofjcia| lco
Pcr|a|, May 1O, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/cng/spcccn-
cs/2006/05/10/1823_|qpc70029|qpc82912_105566.sn|n|.
149
45. VIadinii Iulin, Opening Addiess al Meeling on DeveI3
oping Russias NucIeai Weapons ConpIex, Prcsidcn| cf Russia
Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, Maich 3O, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/
cng/spcccncs/2006/03/30/2300_|qpc82913_104010.sn|n|.
46. VIadinii Iulin, Inleiviev vilh AI }azeeia TeIevision Chan3
neI, Oclolei 16, 2OO3, Iiesidenl of Russia OfhciaI Wel IoilaI, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/cng/|cx|/spcccncs/2003/10/16/1648_54238.
sn|n|.
47. Opening Renaiks al Meeling vilh Heads of lhe Rus3
sian NucIeai Weapons and NucIeai Lneigy ConpIexes, Nctc-
Ogarqctc, }une 9, 2OO6, Iiesidenl of Russia OfhciaI Wel IoilaI,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/cng/|cx|/spcccncs/2006/06/09/1952_
|qpc82912|qpc82913_106757.sn|n|.
48. VIadinii Sokiiko, Top-oI, Top-oI!! Mcs|cts|ii Kcn-
scnc|c|s, Decenlei 23, 1999, OSC Doc. ITS19991222OO1392,
CINC YakovIev Inleivieved on 4Olh Anniveisaiy of RVSN,
Nczatisincc Vccnncqc Ooczrcnic, Decenlei 17, 1999, OSC Doc.
CLI19991229OOOO22.
49. NikoIai Sokov, Russias 2OOO MiIilaiy Docliine, Oclolei
1999 (ievised }uIy 2OO4), NT|.crg, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg/do/
nisprcfs/ctcr/dcc|rinc.n|n.
5O. See The MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Russian Iedeialion,
Adopled ly lhe Deciee of lhe Iiesidenl of lhe Russian Iedeialion
No. 7O6, ApiiI 21, 2OOO, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion vvv.ig.iu/
ohciaI/doc/ykazi/doc_vai.hln.
51. See The Lav of lhe Russian Iedeialion on Defense, ad3
opled ly lhe Slale Duna on ApiiI 24, 1996, and appioved ly lhe
Iedeialion CounciI on May 15, 1996, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.nrc.crg/dccs/r|cx/dcfcncc/indcx.n|n.
52. See The NalionaI Secuiily Concepl of lhe Russian Ied3
eialion, adopled ly lhe Deciee of lhe Iiesidenl of lhe Russian
Iedeialion No. 13OO,f Decenlei 17, 1997, in lhe Ldiled Veision
of lhe IiesidenliaI Deciee No. 24 of }anuaiy 1O, 2OOO, in Russian,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.iss.niii|.ru/dc||rins/dc||r01.n|n.
15O
53. See Roleil LegvoId, Russias Unfoined Ioieign IoIicy,
|crcign Affairs, Seplenlei/Oclolei 2OO1, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
fcrcignaffairs.crg/20010901facssaq5570/rcocr|-|cgtc|d/russia-s-un-
fcrncd-fcrcign-pc|icq.n|n|.
54. AIexei Ailalov and VIadinii Dvoikin, eds., Nuc|car Dc-
|crrcncc and Ncn-Prc|ifcra|icn, Menleis of Woiking Cioup: IaveI
Kanennov, LIina Kiiichenko and VIadinii Iyiyev, Moscov, Rus3
sia: Cainegie Moscov Cenlei, 2OO6, p. 4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.carn-
cgic.ru/cn/puos/occ|s/9735aroa|ct_cng_o|c|.pdf.
55. Russia Reseives lhe Righl lo Iieenplive Sliikes, Mcs-
ccu Agcn|s|tc Vccnnq|n Ncscs|ci, Ieliuaiy 7, 2OO7, Open Souice
Cenlei (OSC) Doc.CLI2OO7O795O213.
56. CeneiaI Says Russia May Taigel MissiIe Defense Siles in
Laslein Luiope, Cnannc| Onc Tc|ctisicn, Ieliuaiy 19, 2OO7, OSC
Doc. CLI2OO7O21995O39O.
57. aIuyevskii Says U.S. Luiopean MissiIe Defense Ios3
es Thieal lo Russia, lcoDigcs|.ru, May 3, 2OO7, OSC Doc.
CLI2OO7O54358OO1.
58. See Andiei YashIavskii and Inga Kunskova, Moscov
IIexes Ils MuscIes, Mcs|cts|ii Kcnscnc|c|s, Maich 1, 2OO7, OSC
Doc. CLI2OO7O3O1O21OO3.
59. VIadinii Iulin, Speech and lhe IoIIoving Discussion al
lhe Munich Confeience on Secuiily IoIicy, Ieliuaiy 1O, 2OO7,
Prcsidcn| cf Russia Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.
ru/cng/spcccncs/2007/02/10/0138_|qpc82914|qpc84779_118135.sn|n|.
6O. See NikoIai Zyalkov, Wheie Is lhe SneII of Cunpovdei
Coning Iion` Arguncn|q i |a||q, Ieliuaiy 19, 2OO7, OSC Doc.
CLI2OO7O22495O135.
61. Menshikov.
151
62. See Any I. WooIf, Anli-aIIislic MissiIe Tiealy Denaica3
lion and Succession Agieenenls: ackgiound and Issues, CRS
Rcpcr| |c Ccngrcss, ApiiI 27, 2OOO, avaiIalIe fion uuu.cnic.crg/n|c/
crsrcpcr|s/in|crna|icna|/in|cr-68.cfn.
63. Iulins shoil slalenenl in iesponse lo lhe Aneiican vilh3
diavaI announcenenl nade lhe foIIoving poinls: The U.S. has
lhe Iegilinale iighl lo alandon lhe Tiealy in accoidance vilh ils
piovisions, lhough an Aneiican 'nislake lhe vilhdiavaI deci3
sion does nol cieale innediale lhieals lo Russian secuiily, alan3
donnenl of lhe AM Tiealy Ieads lo lhe eneigence of a IegaI
vacuun in lhe eIaloiale syslen of agieenenls in lhe spheie of
disainanenl and lhe nonpioIifeialion, lhal 'vacuun shouId le
hIIed up ly iapid eIaloialion of a 'nev fianevoik of slialegic
nuluaI ieIalions, undei lhal 'fianevoik consideialIe ieduclions
of offensive veapons shouId lake pIace (piefeialIy lo lhe IeveI of
1,5OO-2,2OO vaiheads foi each side). See Vadin Maikushin, ad
Nevs foi lhe WoiId Connunily, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Decenlei 15,
2OO1, in Russian.
64. Menshikov.
65. Russian Reaclion lo NATOs LnIaigenenl, Ana|i|i|9
Maich 4, 2OO4, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ana|i|i|.crg.ua/u|r/cur-
rcn|-ccnncn|/cx|/407412da4f691/pagcdcc1095_25/.
66. The SOR Tiealy caIIs foi lhe ieduclion of lhe slialegic nu3
cIeai vaiheads of lolh Russia and lhe Uniled Slales ly lhe end of
2O12 lo 1,7OO-2,2OO, i.e., appioxinaleIy ly lhiee lines conpaied
lo lhe IeveI piovided ly lhe START 1 Tiealy. START 1 ilseIf is
lo ienain in foice unliI Decenlei 5, 2OO9, and nay lhen le ex3
lended. The SOR Tiealy ensuies conlinuily in disainanenl and
ains conlioI in lhe condilions vhen lhe AM Tiealy has ceased
lo le opeialive, lhe queslion of lhe enliy of lhe START II Tiealy
inlo foice has faIIen avay, and olhei disainanenl agieenenls
aie undeigoing seiious liiaIs. The nev Tiealy vas caIIed upon
lo assisl sulslanliaIIy lhe slienglhening of lhe nonpioIifeialion
iegine as veII. See Slalenenl ly AIexandei Konuzin, Depuly
Ieinanenl Repiesenlalive of Russia lo lhe Uniled Nalions, al lhe
Session of lhe UN Connission on Disainanenl HeId on ApiiI 1,
2OO3. SORT vas ialihed ly lhe Duna on May 14, 2OO3 ly voles
of 294 depulies vilh 134 voling againsl and none alslaining.
152
67. See NikoIai Sokov, The Russian NucIeai Ains ConlioI
Agenda Aflei SORT, Arns Ccn|rc| Tcdaq, ApiiI 2OO3, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.arnsccn|rc|.crg/ac|/2003_04/sc|ct_apr03.asp.
68. WhiIe keeping a conpelilive posluie on slialegic veap3
ons, Russia is piepaied lo pIay a pailneiship ioIe vilh lhe Uniled
Slales in cuiling WMD pioIifeialion and olhei aieas vheie lolh
nalions face siniIai chaIIenges and lhieals. Ioi exanpIe, in }uIy
2OO6, Iiesidenls of lolh counliies Iaunched lhe joinl CIolaI Ini3
lialive lo Conlal NucIeai Teiioiisn ained lo pievenl lhe ac3
quisilion, lianspoil, oi use ly leiioiisls of nucIeai naleiiaIs and
iadioaclive sulslances oi inpiovised expIosive devices using
such naleiiaIs, as veII as hosliIe aclions againsl nucIeai faciIi3
lies. }oinl Slalenenl ly U.S. Iiesidenl Ceoige ush and Rus3
sian Iedeialion Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin announcing lhe CIolaI
Inilialive lo Conlal NucIeai Teiioiisn, Sl. Ieleisluig, Russia,
}uIy 15, 2OO6, Prcsidcn| cf Russia Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.|rcn|in.ru/cng/|cx|/dccs/2006/07/108727.sn|n|.
69. Yevgenii Kozhokhin, U.S.-Russian ReIalions: Iacls
and MuluaI Lxpeclalions, |A|R Puo|ica|icn, Decenlei 2OO2, in
Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ipni.ru/n|n|_cn/puo|ica|icn_cn/n_
cn/06_20_1_dcccnocr_2002_cn.n|n.
7O. Accoiding lo NikoIai Sokov: CoupIed vilh lhe end of
lhe AM Tiealy and START 2, SORT naiks lhe end of liadilionaI
ains conlioI. Iuilhei ieduclions aie unIikeIy in lhe neai fuluie
lecause, aflei SORT is inpIenenled, lhe Uniled Slales and Rus3
sia viII have ieached vhal lhey feeI is lhe oplinaI (oi cIose lo lhe
oplinaI) IeveI of slialegic aisenaIs lhal lhey need: 2,2OO depIoyed
vaiheads foi lhe Uniled Slales and 1,5OO foi Russia. One possilIe
addilionaI slep is codihcalion of lhe ongoing ieduclion of Russian
nonslialegic nucIeai veapons, lul ils chances aie ienole. Moie
inpoilanlIy, nanaging hisl-sliike capaliIily, vhich vas lhe key
nolive of liadilionaI ains conlioI, is no Iongei uigenl foIIov3
ing lhe end of lhe CoId Wai. See NikoIai Sokov, The Russian
NucIeai Ains ConlioI Agenda Aflei SORT, Arns Ccn|rc| Tcdaq9
ApiiI, 2OO3.
153
71. Seigei Ivanov: Russia is foi lhe Ciealion of Luiopes
Non-Slialegic Anli-MissiIe Defense Syslen, ||ar-Tass, Augusl
3O, 2OO5 in Russian.
72. ||ar-Tass, Augusl 6, 2OO5, in Russian.
73. Visil lo Ivanovo, Kosliona, and YaiosIavI Regions. Tei3
kovo (Ivanovo Region), Kosliona, YaiosIavI, Prcsidcn| cf Russia
Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, May 15, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/
cng/ctcn|s/cnrcnic|c/2008/05/200822.sn|n|.
74. Accoiding lo Russian Iiesidenl Dniliii Medvedev, The
Uniled Slales of Aneiica acliveIy heIped Ceoigia lo eiecl ils niIi3
laiy nachine, punped noney and veapons inlo il. Unfoilunale3
Iy, al sone slage lhey gave Mi. SaakashviIi a caile lIanche foi any
aclions, incIuding niIilaiy ones. AII lhis naleiiaIized in lhe ag3
giession lhal vas Iaunched on lhe nighl of 7-8 Augusl. See Rus3
sian Iiesidenl Allacks Ceoigian Leadei, USA in TV Inleiviev,
Vcs|i TV, Seplenlei 2, 2OO8, OSC Doc. CLI2OO8O9O295O547.
75. See Andiei Shounikhin and akei Spiing, S|ra|cgic Nu-
c|car Arns Ccn|rc| fcr |nc Prc|cc| and Dcfcnd S|ra|cgq, CIolaI Se3
cuiily, avaiIalIe fion uuu.g|coa|sccuri|q.crg/und/|iorarq/ncus/
russia/1997/drsct05131997000591.n|n, Washinglon, DC: Heiilage
Ioundalion, May 4, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ncri|agc.crg/rc-
scarcn/rcpcr|s/2009/05/s|ra|cgic-nuc|car-arns-ccn|rc|-fcr-|nc-prc|cc|-
and-dcfcnd-s|ra|cgy.
76. See Russian-US Tiealy on Reduclion and Linilalion of
Slialegic Offensive Ains Has een Signed. }oinl Nevs Confei3
ence vilh US Iiesidenl aiack Olana, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, Iiague,
The Czech RepulIic, Prcsidcn| cf Russia Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|9 0%0&63
alIe fion cng.|rcn|in.ru/ncus/271.
77. Seigei Rogov, Allenpl Nunlei 6: lhe aIance of Achieve3
nenls and Concessions. OnIy lhe Uniled Slales WiII Have lo Re3
duce Ils Slialegic Ioices, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, ApiiI 9,
2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/ccnccp|s/2010-04-09/1_
snt.n|n|.
154
78. VIadinii Dvoikin, START on lhe aIance of Slialegic
SlaliIily. The Tine Has Cone lo Relhink Nolions Such As Slia3
legic SlaliIily and NucIeai Deleiience, Nczatisincc Vccnncc
Ooczrcnic, ApiiI 16, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/ccn-
ccp|s/2010-04-16/1_snt.n|n|.
79. See Seigei iezkun (KienIev), The WoiId Thal Ran
Avay fion lhe onl and Was LxpIoded Afleivaids, |cunda|icn
cf S|ra|cgic Cu||urc, Ieliuaiy 2, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.fcnds|.ru/ar|ic|c.pnp?id=2746.
8O. See Russian MiIilaiy Docliine, G|coa|Sccuri|q.crg9 0%0&63
alIe fion uuu.g|coa|sccuri|q.crg/ni|i|arq/ucr|d/russia/dcc|rinc.n|n.
81. See Yuiii Kiishin, CeneiaIs Iuepiinl Nev MiIilaiy Doc3
liine, Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Augusl 28, 2OO6, in Russian.
82. See The Diafl Nev RI MiIilaiy Docliine: U.S. Lqualed lo
Teiioiisls, Agcn|ura.ru, Seplenlei 19, 2OO6, in Russian, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.agcn|ura.ru/?p=14ccc|=1cid=1158642000.
83. See Makhnul Caieev, Nev Condilions~Nev MiIilaiy
Docliine, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Ieliuaiy 2, 2OO7 in
Russian.
84. |oid.
85. |oid.
86. Yevgenia oiisova, U.S. Reslails Ils NucIeai Machine,
Mcsccu Tincs, ApiiI 24, 2OO3.
87. The U.S. DeveIops a Supei onl, U|rc.ru, May 19, 2OO3,
in Russian, VasiIii Seigeev, NucIeai onls econe SnaIIei,
Gazc|a.Ru, May 21, 2OO3, in Russian.
88. AIIa Yaioshinskaya, Is lhe WoiId Moving Tovaids lhe
NucIeai Wai` Rcsoa||.ru, Maich 23, 2OO6, in Russian.
89. See Medvedev Senl a RevoIulionaiy Message: He Re3
sponded lo lhe U.S. MD and Incieased lhe Tein of Iiesidency
lo 6 Yeais, N|ls.ru, Novenlei 5, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
ncusru.ccn/russia/05nct2008/pcs|anic1.n|n|.
155
9O. VIadinii Ivanov, Iskandeis AIone Aie Nol Lnough. Il Is
Iioposed lo Use Slialegic Avialion lo Acl againsl lhe Aneiican
MD in Luiope, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Novenlei 21,
2OO8, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/arnancn|/2008-11-21/8_
is|andcr.n|n|.
91. See The MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Russian Iedeialion,
Adopled ly lhe Deciee of lhe Iiesidenl of lhe Russian Iedeialion
No. 7O6 of ApiiI 21, 2OOO, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rg.ru/
cjcia|/dcc/q|azi/dcc_uar.n|n.
92. They Iiepaie a Nev MiIilaiy Docliine in Russia~
Response lo IiolIens, Russiancus.ru, Decenlei 12, 2OO8, in
Russian, avaiIalIe fion russiancus.ru/ncus/20211/.
93. |oid.
94. See AIeksandi Khianchikhin, The Inslilule of IoIilicaI
and MiIilaiy AnaIysis Raises AIain. The Refoined Russian Ainy
WiII e AlIe lo Iighl againsl OnIy One Adveisaiy, Decenlei 12,
2OO8, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion
ntc.ng.ru/fcrccs/2008-12-26/5_ana|iz.n|n|, MikhaiI Raslopshin,
MiIilaiy Thoughl againsl lhe CeneiaI Slaff. Il Is InpossilIe lo
Achieve Ieinanenl Readiness foi AII Nev-Look Tioops, Ncza-
tisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Maich 12, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe
1+/8 ntc.ng.ru/fcrccs/2010-03-12/1_gcnsn|ao.n|n|?n|nrcc=3.
95. OIga ozhieva, Russia Iiepaies an Anli-MiIilaiy Doc3
liine, Mcs|cts|ii Kcnscnc|c|s, Decenlei 11, 2OO8, in Russian,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|.ru/o|cgs/MK/2008/12/11/russia/385672/.
96. See foi exanpIe: Head of lhe CeneiaI Slaff: lhe RI DeveI3
ops a Nev MiIilaiy Docliine and IIans MiIilaiy Measuies againsl
lhe U.S. MD, Ncusru.ccn, May 7, 2OO7, in Russian, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.ncusru.ccn/russia/07naq2007/oa|ucts|ij.n|n|.
97. |oid.
98. Ialiushev Inleiviev, |n|crfax, Oclolei 13, 2OO9, Secu3
iily CounciIs Ialiushev Inleivieved on MiIilaiy Docliine, |z-
tcs|iqa, Oclolei 14, 2OO9.
156
99. The Iiisl-Sliike Docliine, Sci||a.ru, }une, 13, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.sci||a.ru/ccn|cn|/ticu/3533/2/.
1OO. MaiceI de Haas, DocliinaI SlipuIalions and IoIilicaI Re3
aIilies. Whal ShouId e lhe Weslein Response lo lhe Nev Doc3
liine` Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 2, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.ng.ru/rca||q/2010-02-26/1_dc||rina.n|n|.
1O1. NikoIai Sokov, The Nev, 2O1O Russian MiIilaiy Doc3
liine: The NucIeai AngIe, CNS |ca|urc S|crics, Ieliuaiy 5,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion cns.niis.cdu/s|crics/100205_russian_nuc|car_
dcc|rinc.n|n.
1O2. OIga Mefodyeva:, IoIicy Wilhoul DoulIe Slandaids.
Russian Ioieign IoIicy Concepl Seen in Conlexl of Medvedev
Speech lo Anlassadois, Pc|i|ccn.ru, }uIy 17, 2OO8, OSC Doc.
CLI2OO8O718379OO2.
1O3. Slale CounciI lo Discuss Nev Ioieign IoIicy Slialegy,
||ar-Tass, Seplenlei 6, 2OO8, OSC Doc. CLI2OO8O9O695OO51.
1O4. The Slialegy of NalionaI Secuiily of lhe Russian Ied3
eialion lo 2O2O. in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nsnor.ru/s|ra|c-
giqa_no_rf.n|n|.
1O5. |oid.
1O6. |oid.
1O7 . |oid.
1O8. |oid.
1O9. See Andiei Konuiov, The Slialegy of NalionaI Secu3
iily: lhe Woid and lhe Deed, Moscov, Russia: Slialegic CuI3
.2+# A/2-,0.&/-, May 18, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.fcnds|.
ru/ar|ic|c.pnp?id=2152, IaveI IeIgenhauei, Russias Defense
Modeinizalion Wilhoul a Docliine, ]ancs|cun |urasia Dai-
|q Mcni|cr, Maich 26, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion scarcn.qancc.ccn/
scarcn?p=n||p3A2|2|uuu.ccnus.nc|2|ar|nan22|puo
157
|isn2|Dcfcncc_Arns_132|Russia_s_Dcfcnsc_Mcdcrniza|icn_
li|ncu|_a_Dcc|rinc.sn|ncci=u|f-8cfr=o1ic7.
11O. Andiei NikoIaev, OId Slialegy Refuilished, Nczatisi-
naqa Gazc|a, ApiiI 12, 2OO3, in Russian.
111. VIadinii SIipchenko, Whal Kind of Wai ShouId Rus3
sia e Iiepaied lo Wage, Pc|i|.ru, Novenlei 23, 2OO4, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.o.ru/infc/32983.n|n|.
112. V.S. eIous, Deleiience and lhe Concepl of Iiisl Use of
NucIeai Weapons, Pcrscna| lco Pagc, avaiIalIe fion uuu.c-scci-
c|q.ru/uind.pnp?|D=240498csccn=1.
113. See V.V. Iiozoiov, NucIeai Deleiience in lhe Theoiy
of lhe AppIicalion of Slialegic MissiIe Ioices, Iail I: Tnccrc|ica|
Aspcc|s cf |nc Ac|iti|q cf SM| Grcups in |np|cncn|ing Nuc|car Dc|cr-
rcncc, Moscov, Russia, 1999.

114. VIadinii Ivanov, The Aneiican Anli-MissiIe CiicIe~lhe
Ienlagon Iiesenled lhe IIan on DeveIoping MD Syslens, Nc-
zatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Ieliuaiy 26, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiI3
alIe fion ntc.ng.ru/ccnccp|s/2010-02-26/1_an|i-usa.n|n|?n|nrcc=2.
115. YuIii Lslenko, The CapilaIs HoIe-Ridden UnlieIIa. The
Counliy Lacks Nevesl AD/AM Syslens, Nczatisincc Vccnncc
Ooczrcnic, Ieliuaiy 26, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/
fcrccs/2010-02-26/1_prc.n|n|?n|nrcc=1.
116 . See Leonid OiIenko, NalionaI Secuiily and Modeiniza3
lion of lhe Ainy. To Inciease Russias Secuiily We Need AcceIei3
aled Reainanenl of lhe Ainy vilh Nevesl Non-NucIeai Weap3
ons, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, }une 11, 2O1O, in Russian,
avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/fcrccs/2010-06-11/1_safc|q.n|n|, VasiIii
uienok, The asis foi Nel-Cenliic Wais~AcceIeialion, InleI3
Iecl, Innovalions, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, ApiiI 2, 2O1O,
in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/ccnccp|s/2010-04-02/1_oazis.
n|n|?n|nrcc=4, MikhaiI Raslopshin, MiIilaiy Thoughl againsl
lhe CeneiaI Slaff. Il Is InpossilIe lo Achieve Ieinanenl Readiness
foi AII Nev-Look Tioops, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Maich
12, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion ntc.ng.ru/fcrccs/2010-03-12/1_
gcnsn|ao.n|n|?n|nrcc=3.
158
117 . VIadinii Iulin, Speech and lhe IoIIoving Discussion
al lhe Munich Confeience on Secuiily IoIicy, Ieliuaiy 1O, 2OO7,
Prcsidcn| cf Russia Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.
ru/cng/spcccncs/2007/02/10/0138_|qpc82914|qpc84779_118135.sn|n|.
118. |oid.
119. |oid.
12O. Talyana Slanovaya, Medvev Sel lhe Tone of Rus3
sian-Aneiican ReIalions, Pc|i|ccn.ru, }une 9, 2OO8, OSC Doc.
CLI2OO8O61OO15OO2.
121. The Agenda: Ioieign IoIicy, Washinglon, DC: The
While House, Maich 19, 2OO9, avaiIalIe al uuu.uni|cncusc.gct/
agcnda/fcrcign_pc|icq/ .
122. Iiesidenl aiack Olanas InauguiaI Addiess, }anuaiy
21, 2OO9, Washinglon, DC: The While House, Tnc lni|c Hcusc
8|cg, avaiIalIe fion uuu.uni|cncusc.gct/o|cg/inaugura|-addrcss/.
123. Tiealy on lhe Reduclion and Linilalion of Slialegic Of3
fensive Ains, vilh Annexes, IiolocoIs, and Menoiandun of Un3
deislanding, Trca|ics in |crcc, Washinglon, DC: Depailnenl of
Slale, 2OO7, p. 5, al uuu.s|a|c.gct/dccuncn|s/crganiza|icn/83043.pdf.
124. }oinl Slalenenl ly Dniliii A. Medvedev, Iiesidenl
of lhe Russian Iedeialion, and aiack Olana, Iiesidenl of lhe
Uniled Slales of Aneiica, Regaiding Negolialions on Iuilhei
Reduclions in Slialegic Offensive Ain, Washinglon, DC: The
While House, ApiiI 1, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.uni|cncusc.gct/
|nc_prcss_cfjcc/]cin|-S|a|cncn|-oq-Dni|riq-A-Mcdtcdct-and-8arac|-
Ooana, and }oinl Slalenenl ly Iiesidenl Dniliiy Medvedev
of lhe Russian Iedeialion and Iiesidenl aiack Olana of lhe
Uniled Slales of Aneiica, Washinglon, DC: The While House,
ApiiI 1, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.uni|cncusc.gct/|nc_prcss_cfjcc/
]cin|-S|a|cncn|-oq-Prcsidcn|-Dni|riq-Mcdtcdct-cf-|nc-Russian-|cd-
cra|icn-and-Prcsidcn|-8arac|-Ooana-cf-|nc-Uni|cd-S|a|cs-cf-Ancrica.
159
125. See Keilh . Iayne, Disainanenl Dangei, Na|icna| Rc-
ticu, ApiiI 7, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion ar|ic|c.na|icna|rcticu.ccn/430551/
disarnancn|-dangcr/|ci|n-o-paqnc, Kin R. HoInes, Nev START
Negolialions: Shov Us lhe Recoids! Washinglon, DC: Heiilage
Ioundalion, May 26, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ncri|agc.crg/Rc-
scarcn/Ccnncn|arq/2010/05/Ncu-START-ncgc|ia|icns-Sncu-us-|nc-
rcccrds.
126. See Slalenenl ly lhe Russian Iedeialion on MissiIe De3
fense, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, Prcsidcn| cf Russia Ofjcia| lco Pcr|a|, 0%0&63
alIe fion cng.ncus.|rcn|in.ru/rcf_nc|cs/4.
127. Anli-goveinnenl opposilion piovides scalhing ciilicaI
dala on lhe inleinaI silualion in Russia. One of lhe Ialesl pulIica3
lions of lhe opposilion SoIidaiily novenenl is a liochuie ly
oiis Nenlsov and VIadinii MiIov, Iulin. ResuIls. 1O Yeais,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.pu|in-i|cgi.ru/
161
6L4:=82 \
23!!-4T! !8632-=R 2874=-;5!
9-=L =L8 35-=8? !=4=8!<
@3=328! :74558? 45? 35:74558?
:$F%E ND /$%F
-5=2;?36=-;5
In lhe Iasl 5 yeais, lhe pallein of secuiily ieIalions
lelveen Russia and lhe Wesl has changed lvice: hisl
lovaids confionlalion iesenlIing a nev CoId Wai,
and lhen lovaids coopeialion naluiing lo a slialegic
pailneiship. The ieaI anpIilude of lhis sving is sig3
nihcanlIy Iess lhan oflen piesenled in lhe nedia con3
nenlaiy. The deleiioialion of ieIalions, vhich ieached
ils nadii in lhe second haIf of 2OO8 foIIoving lhe Rus3
sian-Ceoigian vai, vas lenpeied ly a nuluaI desiie
lo nininize danage, vhiIe coopeialion ienains han3
peied ly Iack of liusl. Lven so, lhe shifl fion a quasi-
CoId Wai lo a pailiaI iesel has leen ienaikalIy svifl,
il is essenliaI lo poinl oul in lhis conlexl lhal Russia-
U.S. ieIalions have expeiienced giealei voIaliIily lhan
lhe noie slalIe ieIalions lelveen Russia and lhe key
Luiopean slales. Il is aIso usefuI lo eslalIish lhal lhe
escaIalion of lensions vas piinaiiIy of Russias nak3
ing, slailing vilh Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulins nenoia3
lIe Munich speech in Ieliuaiy 2OO7, vhiIe lhe lieak3
lhiough lovaids iappiochenenl vas inilialed ly lhe
U.S. adninislialion of Iiesidenl aiack Olana. The
Iiague Tiealy on ieducing slialegic aisenaIs signed
in ApiiI 2O1O is lhe nain achievenenl in ieselling lhe
ieIalions on lhe coopeialive liack.
162
!"# */(&.&%# ("&1. &- +#60.&/-( 7/&-7&,#, '&." ."#
Iovesl phase of lhe econonic ciisis, vhich oiiginaled
in lhe U.S. hnanciaI naikel lul has hil Russia vilh
giealei foice lhan any of lhe 2O Iaigesl econonies in
lhe voiId. The inpacl on nainsliean poIilicaI and
secuiily lhinking has aIso leen lhe nosl piofound in
Moscov, and nol onIy lecause of lhe deplh of eco3
nonic conliaclion lul aIso due lo lhe sudden ovei3
luining of lhe pievaIenl voiIdviev. Indeed, dui3
ing Iulins second piesidenliaI lein, lhe peiceplion
of fasl-slienglhening Russia lhal vouId iecIain ils
naluiaI posilion anong seveiaI gieal poveis in lhe
eneiging voiId syslen, vhich vouId no Iongei le
shaped ly U.S. doninalion, lecane a poIilicaI axion
foi lhe Russian eIiles. The exlenl of Russias econonic
vuIneialiIily and poIilicaI veakness ieveaIed ly lhe
ciisis is nol yel fuIIy undeislood ly lhe disoiienled
poIicynakeis, so lhe cuiienl lhinking cones oul as an
incoheienl nix of iesiduaI asseilive anlilions, noie
solei assessnenls of povei laIances, and gioving
conceins aloul lhe counliys fuilhei liajecloiy.
This chaplei does nol liy lo soil oul lhese puzzIes,
lul ains al idenlifying key inconsislencies in lhe evoIv3
ing secuiily peiceplions and pIans vhiIe aIso seeking
lo evaIuale lhe gaps lelveen lhese peiceplions and
ieaI shifls in Russias secuiily posluie, offeiing a fev
pioposilions aloul possilIe deveIopnenl of lhe Iallei.
Il slails ly piesenling lhe geneiaI picluie of Russia-
U.S. ieIalions as painled and inagined ly lhe piesenl
Ieadeiship in Moscov and lhen noves lo anaIyzing
."# 8&6&.0+53(#72+&.5 (7#-0+&/( 0-, /*.&/-(9 -0++/'3
ing dovn on specihc issues of nissiIes defense and lhe
Inleinediale-Range NucIeai Ioices (INI) Tiealy. The
Iasl seclion allenpls lo oulIine possilIe changes in lhe
naluie of Russias ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled Slales, lhe
163
Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiganizalion (NATO), and lhe
Luiopean Union (LU).
=L8 Q37=-U:;742 9;27? 466;2?-5O
=; :3=-5
!"# %&(&/- /1 0 826.&*/60+ '/+6, 7/-(.&.2.#( ."#
nain nenlaI fianevoik in vhich Russian-U.S. ieIa3
lions aie concepluaIized, even if il iepiesenls a nix
of seveiaI iII-conpalilIe ideas ialhei lhan a coheienl
concepl. The peiceplion of seveiaI gIolaI povei cen3
leis conpeling foi inuence is geopoIilicaI in naluie,
and lhe conviclion lhal lheii lehavioi is deleinined
ly puisuil of nalionaI inleiesls couId le chaiacleiized
as neo-ieaIisl, vhiIe lheie is aIso a dislinclIy neo-Iil3
eiaI connilnenl lo uphoIding inleinalionaI Iav and
a piefeience foi slienglhening lhe ieguIaloiy aulhoi3
ily of inleinalionaI inslilulions, piinaiiIy lhe Uniled
Nalions (UN). In iheloiic, nuch allenlion is given lo
nev-age secuiily chaIIenges, fion nucIeai pioIifeia3
lion lo leiioiisn lo cIinale change, lul in ieaI leins, il
&( ."# .+0,&.&/-06 &-.#+(.0.# */'#+3*605 ."0. &( (##- 0(
lhe nain souice of secuiily lhieals and dangeis.
1
The U.S. hegenony in lhe voiId syslen is leIieved
lo le lenpoiaiy and fasl decIining lo le iepIaced ly
a noie naluiaI aiiangenenl vilh hve lo seven gieal
poveis inleiacling fiee fion hxed aIIiances lul foin3
ing exilIe coaIilions in key iegions of lhe voiId. Il
is IogicaI in lhis voiIdviev lo expecl deleinined and
even despeiale U.S. effoils ained al pioIonging ils
piiviIeged posilion as lhe doninanl hypei-povei, so
lhe enphasis on nuIliIaleiaIisn in lhe nev U.S. Na-
|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq &( (##- 0( 0 8#0-( ./ ."&( #-,9
vhiIe uniIaleiaIisn is lhe pievaIenl slyIe of lehavioi.
A/+ ."0. 80..#+9 ."# +#0((2+0-7#( &- ."&( ,/728#-.
164
and in olhei pulIic slalenenls lhal lhe Uniled Slales
vouId vanl Russia lo le sliong and seIf-conhdenl aie
inleipieled in Moscov neieIy as dipIonalic coui3
lesy oi lianspaienl deceplion. The expeiience of lhe
199Os, and in pailicuIai lhe Kosovo vai, is accepled
as pioof posilive of U.S. inlenlions lo expIoil Russias
veaknesses. These inlenlions aie nol seen as diiven
ly piefeiences of pailicuIai piesidenls lul conslilule
a fundanenlaI slialegic Iine lovaids naiginaIizalion
of Russia as a polenliaI iising povei.
2

The assessnenl of NATO ains and peispeclives is
+0."#+ ,&11#+#-.9 ,#(*&.# ."# #).+#8#65 "/(.&6# 0..&.2,#
in 2OO7-O8 lovaids ils supposed enIaigenenl lo Ceoi3
gia and Ukiaine. The AIIiance is geneiaIIy peiceived as
a ieIic of lhe CoId Wai deslined lo diifl lo iiieIevance
vilh lhe veakening of U.S. Ieadeiship.
3
!"# '0+ &-
Afghanislan, leIieved lo le unvinnalIe, is expecled
lo push lhe aIIies apail, acceIeialing lhe fundanenlaI
liend of consoIidalion of lhe LU as an independenl
povei poIe. Al lhe sane line, Weslein Luiope is lypi3
caIIy poiliayed as a decIining and incoheienl gIolaI
acloi, vhich is unalIe lo deveIop sufhcienl haid pov3
ei capaliIilies foi piojecling ils inuence.
This sonevhal condescending viev iIIusliales an
inpoilanl evoIulion in Russian secuiily lhinking: Al
lhe slail of lhe 2OOOs, il vas heaviIy liIled lovaids
niIilaiy-slialegic nalleis, lul al lhe slail of 2O1Os, il
has lecone dislinclIy econonized. VIadinii Iulin has
nevei had a sliong niIilaiy lackgiound, lul al lhe
slail of his piesidency, his voiIdviev vas shaped ly
lhe heavy inpacl of lhe Kosovo vai and lhe inpeia3
live lo secuie a vicloiy in lhe second Chechen vai.
Duiing his second lein, hovevei, lhe speclacuIai
giovlh of oiI and gas ievenues caused a coiiespond3
ing shifl of poIilicaI allenlion, so lhal Russia vas ie-
165
concepluaIized as an eneigy supei-povei.
4
Dnilii
Medvedev has veiy IillIe undeislanding of, and Iess
inleiesl in, lhe liadilionaI haid secuiily agenda, so
lhe enphasis on econonic gIolaIizalion and con3
pelilion has lecone even noie pionounced duiing
his piesidency. His peisonaI inpacl on shaping lhe
nainsliean poIilicaI peiceplions nay le Iiniled, lul
lhe diaslic conliaclion of lhe oiI and gas ievenues in
2OO9-1O has added convincing povei lo his discouise
of nodeinizalion, so eneigy expoil is nov depicled as
huniIialing dependency ialhei lhan as a najoi souice
of povei.
Theie aie seveiaI seiious piolIens vilh lhis pseu3
do-piagnalic voiIdviev, lul peihaps lhe cenliaI one
is Russias doullfuI aliIily lo eslalIish ilseIf as an in3
dependenl and inuenliaI poIe in lhe envisaged nuI3
lipoIai voiId.
5
In lhis iespecl, lhe inpIicalions of lhe
iise of China aie pailicuIaiIy pooiIy exanined leyond
lhe ialhei lhin ofhciaI guideIine on deveIoping sliale3
gic pailneiship. The veiy ieaI and hisloiicaIIy sound
pioposilion lhal a nuIlipoIai voiId vouId liing a
noie lough and Iess iesliained conpelilion lelveen
gieal poveis, vhich couId pul Russia al giealei iisk
/1 7/-1+/-.0.&/- '&." +#%&(&/-&(. *+#,0./+(9 &( .5*&3
caIIy negIecled.
6
!"#+# &( 0 *+/-/2-7#, *+#/772*0.&/-
vilh (if nol hxalion upon) ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled
Slales lhal aie supposed lo deIivei evidence of Rus3
sias slalus as neaiIy equaI. The econonic dinension
&- ."#(# +#60.&/-( &(9 -#%#+."#6#((9 =2&.# 2-,#+,#%#63
oped, pailicuIaiIy in lhe eneigy inleiaclions, vhich
aie geneiaIIy al odds vilh lhe nain lhiusl of Russian
foieign poIicy. This veakness of lhe econonic foun3
dalion causes giealei voIaliIily in lhis key hxed dqad
conpaied vilh lhe noie slalIe lul highIy conpIex
Russia-LU ieIalions. OveiaII, acling as a nain pio3
166
lagonisl of lhe cause foi disnanlIing lhe unfaii U.S.-
cenliic voiId oidei, Moscov ienains pooiIy piepaied
foi lhe chaIIenges of Hollesian fuluies.
=L284=! 428 Q45R> /3= ?8@85!8! 428 @89
Lnvisioning lhe luiluIenl advenl of a nuIlipoIai
voiId, lhe Russian Ieadeiship adopls a veiy lioad
inleipielalion of secuiily, enuncialing docliines nol
onIy of infoinalion secuiily lul aIso of cIinale secu3
iily and even food secuiily. Lach of lhese docliines
idenlihes nuneious lhieals and iisks, and lhe aggie3
gale Iisl is piovided in lhe Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq
lo 2O2O, appioved in May 2OO9. The docunenl eslal3
Iishes lhal a quaIilaliveIy nev geopoIilicaI silualion
is eneiging in vhich inleislale lensions caused ly
uneven deveIopnenl iesuIling fion gIolaIizalion
aie gioving (AilicIe 8), lul slales lhal in Russia lhe
foundalions foi guaianleed pievenlion of exleinaI
and inleinaI lhieals lo nalionaI secuiily aie ciealed
(AilicIe 1).
7
Il vouId have leen IogicaI lo expecl lhal
in lhe aiea of niIilaiy secuiily, lhe ialhei vague lul
unnislakalIy U.S.-focused lhieals dehned in lhis
docunenl (. . . poIicy of sone Ieading slales ained
al acquiiing decisive niIilaiy supeiioiily, hisl of aII
in slialegic nucIeai foices . . ., AilicIe 3O) vouId le
eIaloialed in lhe MiIilaiy Docliine appioved in Iel3
iuaiy 2O1O. In facl, lhis docunenl dehnes lhieals in lhe
nosl alsliacl leins (foi inslance, lhe hisl one is . . .
shaip aggiavalion of niIilaiy-poIilicaI silualion |in3
leinalionaI ieIalionsj and eneigence of condilions foi
lhe use of niIilaiy foice, AilicIe 1O), and is no noie
specihc in desciiling exleinaI niIilaiy dangeis (foi
inslance, . . . allenpls lo deslaliIize silualion in sone
slales oi iegions and lo undeinine slialegic slaliIily,
AilicIe 8).
8
167
This gieal vaiiely of pooiIy specihed lhieals and
iisks lhal aie nol piioiilized in any neaningfuI vay
nakes il inpossilIe lo hguie oul lhe key paianeleis
of ieaI lhieal assessnenls on lhe lasis of a lunch of
iecenlIy adopled ofhciaI docunenls. Il shouId aIso
le noled lhal lhe Russian slialegic liadilion does nol
&-762,# (27" 7/88/- 0-065.&706 #)#+7&(#( 0( (7#-0+&/3
luiIding (oi, foi lhal nallei, gane-lype nodeIing), so
pIanning foi ciisis silualions lypicaIIy is Iineai vilh
no aIleinalives foi possilIe asynneliic iesponses of
an adveisaiy. In ieaI-Iife ciises, such inexilIe Ieadei3
("&* /1.#- +#(26.( &- 7/-12(&/- /%#+ 2-&-.#-,#, 7/-(#3
quences, lul in slialegic foiecasling, il nakes il veiy
piolIenalic lo suggesl hov Moscov vouId ieacl if
one lhing Ieads lo anolhei. The onIy vay lo consliucl
0 (#=2#-7# /1 +0.&/-06 7"/&7#( &( ./ ,#+&%# &-.#-.&/-(
fion avaiIalIe capaliIilies, assuning lhal lhe decideis
aie nol nisinfoined aloul lhe Iallei. In lhis iespecl,
."# ,#.#+8&-#, #)#72.&/- /1 +#1/+8 /1 7/-%#-.&/-06
ained foices couId piovide sone cIues aloul lhe se3
cuiily chaIIenges and conicl silualions lhal aie seen
as highIy piolalIe ly lhe cuiienl Russian Ieadeiship.
9
The visdon of Iaunching such a iadicaI niIilaiy
pcrcs|rci|a al lhe slail of a devaslaling and pioliacled
econonic ciisis is queslionalIe, and lhe iefoin is deh3
nileIy geneialing giealei pain and necessilaling high3
ei expendiluies lhan ludgeled, vhiIe ils piovisionaI
iesuIls aie fai fion lhe expeclalions.
1O
B-# /1 ."# 2-3
announced lul IogicaIIy deducilIe guideIines is lhal
Russia is no Iongei expecling oi piepaiing foi a Iaige-
scaIe convenlionaI vai againsl NATO in lhe Weslein
lhealei. Indeed, one of lhe hisl laigels of lhe iefoin
vas dislandnenl of hundieds of skeIelon unils in
."# @+/2-, A/+7#( 0-, ."# >&+ A/+7#9 '"&7" 08/2-.(
lo sciapping of lhe oId Soviel infiasliucluie of nass
168
noliIizalion.
11
Il is possilIe lo specuIale lhal Defense
Minislei AnaloIy Seidyukov, vho has nevei pielend3
ed lo have a giasp of high slialegic nalleis, opled foi
lhis goaI as one of lhe easiesl in inpIenenlalion, since
lhose enply sheIIs of ieginenls peifoined no usefuI
ioIe. Hovevei, even if alandoning a slialegic nodeI
(daling lack lo WoiId Wai I) vas nol inlenlionaI, lhe
svifl inpIenenlalion of lhe dislandnenl oidei neans
lhal undei no ciicunslances vouId Russia le alIe lo
depIoy even a dozen of cadie divisions ly caIIing ie3
seivisls. This aIso neans lhal no nininaIIy neaning3
fuI convenlionaI defense couId le luiIl in lhe Iai Lasl
in case of a confionlalion vilh China.
12

One inpIicil ieeclion on lhis shifl in lhe MiIilaiy
Docliine is lhe pioposilion lhal:
Despile lhe dininishing piolaliIily of Iaunching a
Iaige-scaIe vai againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion vilh
7/-%#-.&/-06 0-, -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 &- (#%#+06 ,&+#73
lions niIilaiy dangeis foi lhe Russian Iedeialion aie
incieasing (AilicIe 7).
This guideIine ienains open lo inleipielalion, lul il
is possilIe lo suggesl lhal a }une 22-lype convenlionaI
offensive fion NATO is nov peiceived as a negIigilIe
lhieal, nol Ieasl due lo unvinnalIe lul inescapalIe
engagenenls in Afghanislan and Iiaq. Whal is as3
sessed as a ieaI and high-inpacl lhieal (denonslialed
in lhe NATO vai againsl YugosIavia in 1999) is a se3
iies of suigicaI sliikes vilh Iong-iange high-piecision
veapon syslens againsl vhich Russia has no effeclive
defense and cannol iespond in kind.
13

The onIy conceivalIe, even if unlhinkalIe, oplion
foi counleiing such a lhieal is escaIalion lo lhe nucIeai
IeveI, and lhis oplion needs lo le ciedilIe in oidei lo
pievenl lhe execulion of punishing sliikes. This ciedi-
169
liIily cannol le ciealed ly decIaiing ieadiness lo cioss
lhe nucIeai lhieshoId, vhich vouId le poIilicaIIy
inappiopiiale, so lhe MiIilaiy Docliine lakes a veiy
caulious slance on lhe issue of hisl use, vhich is ie3
seived foi lhe silualion of lhieal lo lhe veiy exislence
of lhe slale (AilicIe 22).
14
The slialegic aisenaI is sup3
posed lo counleilaIance lhe U.S. nucIeai liiad, as veII
as lhe nucIeai capaliIilies of Iiance and lhe Uniled
Kingdon (UK), so lhe nain neans foi uphoIding lhis
deleiience of convenlionaI nonconlacl aggiession is
sul-slialegic (oi laclicaI) nucIeai veapons. ConpIele
Iack of infoinalion aloul lhese veapons is ciealing
a high degiee of unceilainly foi lhe polenliaI advei3
saiy, and lheie is piaclicaIIy no guidance foi oi de3
lale aloul lhe chaiaclei of lheii insliunenlaIizalion.
15

Moscov ienains highIy ieIuclanl lo engage in any
laIks on possilIe ieduclion of lhese veapons, vhich
shouId necessaiiIy slail vilh eslalIishing giealei
lianspaiency.
Il is possilIe lo hypolhesize lhal laclicaI nucIeai
'#0*/-( 0+# (##- 0( ."# 804/+ &-(.+28#-. 1/+ (#72+3
ing Russias aliIily lo doninale lhe escaIalion of sev3
eiaI IocaI conicls aiound ils loideis.
16
In piincipIe,
lhe on-going niIilaiy iefoin is ained al ciealing
noliIe peinanenl ieadiness liigades lhal shouId
le capalIe of peifoining inleivenlions of sufhcienl
foicefuIness. In ieaIily, hovevei, lhe culs in lhe ofhcei
coips and faiIuie lo luiId a coips of piofessionaI (oi
al Ieasl seiving on conliacl) nonconnissioned ofhceis
(NCOs) has Ied lo a suslained decIine in lhe conlal
ieadiness of lhe nev Iook Ciound Ioices.
17
!"&( 7+#3
ales a high-iisk silualion foi lhe neai fuluie vheie
Russia couId hnd ilseIf so ladIy liounced in a fasl-
noving snaII-lo-nediun scaIe hosliIily lhal deIivei3
ing a nucIeai sliike vouId lecone a piaclicaI soIulion.
17O
Since lhe coIIapse of lhe Union of Soviel SociaIisl
RepulIics (USSR), il has leen lhe Caucasus lhal ieg3
isleied lhe highesl IeveI of inslaliIily vilh a gieal va3
iiely of vioIenl conicls oveiIapping and iesuIling in
nonsuslainalIe deadIocks. Russia peifoined a nun3
lei of inleivenlions of diffeienl scaIe, lul in 2OO7-O8
lhe end of lhe second Chechen vai Iefl il vilh signih3
canl and usalIe fiee niIilaiy capacily, vhich vas pul
lo use againsl Ceoigia in Augusl 2OO8.
18
Despile lhe
speclacuIai vicloiy, lhal vai has Iefl a highIy conlio3
veisiaI Iegacy, as Russia is lenpled on lhe one hand
lo iepIay lhe easy vaIkovei and liing lhe conicl lo
a hnaI soIulion, lul on lhe olhei hand, has nuch di3
ninished niIilaiy capaliIilies. Whal nighl nake lhis
conicl pione lo nucIeai escaIalion is a possiliIily of
U.S. invoIvenenl, vhich Moscov vouId le despeiale
lo pie-enpl.
Anolhei polenliaI seal of conicl lhal alliacls pii3
oiily allenlion of Russian poIicynakeis is Ukiaine,
vhich is seen as deepIy divided and even ailihciaI
slale. Wilh lhe eIeclion of Vikloi Yanukovich as lhe
piesidenl in Ieliuaiy 2O1O and his ienaikalIy svifl
consoIidalion of conlioI ovei lhe uniuIy Ukiainian
poIilicaI piocess, Moscov has lecone noie conhdenl
in luiIding liolheiIy ieIalions vilh lhe nosl inpoi3
lanl of ils neighlois.
19
NeveilheIess, lhe piospecl of
a nev poIilicaI spasn, siniIai lo lhe oiange ievoIu3
lion of Novenlei-Decenlei 2OO4 (vhich ienains a
Iooning speclei foi Iulins coleiie), is peiceived as
faiiIy high, pailicuIaiIy as lhe devaslaling econonic
ciisis geneiales nassive disconlenl. Such a iepIay of
lhe Wesl-sponsoied coup againsl pio-Russian eIiles
7/26, +#(26. &- 0 (*6&.9 /+ &-,##, 826.&*6# (*6&.(9 /1 ."#
faiIed Ukiaine, vhich vouId open a dooi foi NATO
inleivenlion. The veakness of Russias convenlionaI
171
foices vouId nake nucIeai capaliIilies lhe onIy vay
lo pievenl lhis poIilicaIIy unacceplalIe inleivenlion,
lul lhis non-slialegic deleiience couId faiI, and lhe
KienIin couId iefuse lo accepl lhal ils lIuff has leen
caIIed.
Q36L 4?; 4/;3= Q-!!-78 ?8@85!8
45? 5;=L-5O 4?; 4/;3= =L8 -5@
The pIan foi depIoying sone assels of lhe U.S.
anli-nissiIe defense syslen in Lasl-CenliaI Luiope
alliacled inlense allenlion of lhe Russian Ieadeiship,
vhich, in ieliospecl, appeais lo have leen dispio3
poilionaI. The Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq 0((#+.( ."0.
The capacily foi pieseiving gIolaI and iegionaI sla3
liIily viII signihcanlIy decIine vilh lhe depIoynenl
in Luiope of gIolaI syslen of anli-nissiIe defense of
Uniled Slales of Aneiica (AilicIe 12), and lhe MiIi3
laiy Docliine dehnes ciealion and depIoynenl of
slialegic anli-nissiIe syslens undeinining gIolaI sla3
liIily and vioIaling lhe exisling laIance of foices in
nucIeai-nissiIe spheie as one of exleinaI niIilaiy
dangeis (AilicIe 8).
2O
Wilh lhe signing of lhe Iiague
Tiealy on ieduclion of slialegic offensive veapons,
lhe canpaign againsl (ialhei lhan delales aloul) lhe
U.S. nissiIe defense syslen in lhe Russian nedia and
expeil connunily has shaipIy sulsided, lul lhe issue
couId nake a fasl conelack if NATO luins dovn Rus3
sian vishes lo le inside lhe defensive peiinelei, oi if
a lieaklhiough in U.S. ieseaich and deveIopnenl in
lhis aiea happens.
Il appeais piolalIe lhal lhe Russian Ieadeiship
did faII inlo a seIf-nade liap of naking a cIain loo fai
and lhen escaIaling lhe iheloiic lo juslify ils nislake
vhiIe al lhe sane line liying sone lackpedaIing lo
172
avoid lhe need lo acl on lhis iheloiic. The undeiIy3
ing ieason foi lhal seIf-defealing ovei-focusing is lhe
Iack of conpelence on slialegic nalleis in lhe Kien3
Iin, vhich vas aggiavaled ly lhe seveie puiges of lhe
lop liass and nisliusl in lhe fev avaiIalIe souices of
independenl expeilise. The IeveI of undeislanding of
lhe piolIen is iIIuslialed ly Iulins expIicalion:
As eveiyone knovs, oui Aneiican pailneis aie luiId3
ing a gIolaI nissiIe-defense syslen, and ve aienl.
ul nissiIe defense and slialegic offensive veapons
aie cIoseIy inleiieIaled issues. A laIance of foices
vas vhal kepl aggiession al lay and pieseived peace
duiing lhe CoId Wai. The nissiIe and aii defense
syslens and offensive veapons syslens conliilule
equaIIy lo lhis laIance. If ve do nol deveIop a nis3
siIe defense syslen, lhe iisk aiises lhal oui pailneis
viII feeI enliieIy secuie and piolecled againsl oui of3
fensive veapons syslens. If lhe laIance I nenlioned
is disiupled, lhey viII feeI alIe lo acl vilh inpunily,
incieasing lhe IeveI of aggiession in poIilics and, in3
cidenlaIIy, in lhe econony. In oidei lo nainlain lhe
laIance vilhoul pIanning lo deveIop a nissiIe defense
(5(.#89 '"&7" &( %#+5 #)*#-(&%# 0-, /1 2-76#0+ #11#7.9
ve shouId deveIop offensive sliike syslens. ul lheie
is a calch. In oidei foi lhis laIance lo le nainlained,
if ve vanl lo exchange infoinalion, lhen oui pailneis
shouId give us infoinalion aloul lheii laIIislic nis3
siIe defense syslen and in ieluin ve vouId give lhen
infoinalion aloul oui offensive veapons.
21

A/+.2-0.#659 ."&( ,#80-, '0( ,+/**#, '&."/2.
any danage done lo lhe ieaI laIks in Ceneva, lul
Moscov is sliII lound ly lhe seIf-inposed connil3
nenl lo vilhdiav fion lhe Iiague Tiealy if lhe U.S.
slialegic defense syslen lecones nodeialeIy effec3
live. Il is possilIe lo hnd lvo dislincl diieclions in
Russias sliuggIe againsl lhis deslaliIizing syslen:
173
a) pievenling lhe Uniled Slales fion luiIding a po3
silion of slialegic invinciliIily, and l) sepaialing li3
IaleiaI slialegic nalleis fion nuIliIaleiaI secuiily
aiiangenenls in Luiope. The nain piolIen vilh
Iiesidenl Ceoige W. ushs pIan foi depIoying 1O in3
leiceploi-nissiIes in IoIand and a Iong-iange iadai in
lhe Czech RepulIic vas exaclIy lhal il lioughl lhese
lvo diieclions logelhei. The canceIIalion of lhis pIan
ly Iiesidenl aiack Olana has undeinined lhe soIid
Russian Nqc|-posilion, and nov Moscov has lo con3
sliucl is opposilion noie accuialeIy.
In lhe lig slialegic picluie, lheie is haidIy nuch
doull lhal al sone poinl in lhe nid-lein, effeclive
defense againsl laIIislic nissiIes vouId lecone lech3
nicaIIy possilIe, and lhe Uniled Slales vouId lhen
pioceed vilh deleininalion lo luiIding a pioleclive
shieId.
22
This nev invuIneialiIily is ceilain lo de3
slioy lhe liadilionaI laIance of offensive capaliIilies,
so Russia had lo ieseive foi ilseIf lhe iighl lo vilh3
diav fion lhe Iiague Tiealy.
23
The piolIen vilh lhis
IogicaIIy consislenl posilion is lvo-foId. Iiisl, even
alandoning lhe connilnenl lo ieduce lhe slialegic
aisenaI, Russia vouId haidIy le alIe lo inciease il, as
nany of ils veapon syslens aie appioaching lhe end
/1 (01# (#+%&7# 6&1#9 '"&6# ."# +#*607#8#-.( 0+# 7/83
ing in snaII nunleis (and lhe fuluie of lhe uIava
sulnaiine-Iaunched laIIislic nissiIes |SLMsj ie3
nains in doull). Second, lheie has leen nuch upleal
iepoiling aloul Russias ovn anli-nissiIe syslens, in
pailicuIai lhe piospeclive S-5OO, vhich is supposed
lo le a najoi upgiade fion lhe cuiienlIy depIoying
S-4OO and capalIe of even hilling laigels on Iov space
oilils. When lhe Uniled Slales nakes lhe decision foi
fuII depIoynenl of lhe nissiIe defense syslen, Russia
shouId lhus le alIe lo ansvei in kind~even if in facl,
174
lhe lechnoIogy lehind ils nodein aii-space defenses
is anliqualed leyond any updales.
24
As fai as lhe anli-nissiIe shieId foi Luiope is con3
ceined, Russia ienains veiy ieIuclanl lo engage in a
neaningfuI coopeialion vilh NATO, vheie in piinci3
pIe ils nev eaiIy vaining iadai in Ainavii (as veII as
lhe veiy oId iadai in CalaIa, Azeilaijan) and ils lacli3
caI S-3OO suiface-lo-aii nissiIes couId le vaIualIe as3
sels. Ils nain concein, in lhe voids of Dnilii Rogozin,
lhe anlassadoi lo NATO, is vho viII give lhe oidei
on conlal use of lhe syslen. Iuilheinoie, lehind
lhe cIain lo le accepled as an equaI pailnei in deveI3
oping lhe aichilecluie of lhe anli-nissiIe syslen, il is
nol difhcuIl lo see lhe inlenlion lo nake il unusalIe
againsl Russia.
25
The key fealuie of lhe nev U.S. pIan
lhal giaduaIIy lakes shape (and ils najoi diffeience
fion lhe pIan advanced ly lhe pievious U.S. adnin3
islialion) is lhal lhe nuIli-eIenenl defense vouId le
ained nol againsl ICMs lul againsl nissiIes of inlei3
nediale iange, vhich Russia does nol have accoiding
lo lhe INI Tiealy (1987).
Delales in Moscov aloul lhe pios and cons of
vilhdiaving fion lhis liealy ieached a peak in 2OO7,
as Iulin pioceeded vilh suspending Russias pai3
licipalion in lhe ConvenlionaI Ioices in Luiope (CIL)
Tiealy and hinled lhal il vouId le difhcuIl lo nain3
.0&- 0 7/88&.8#-. -/. ./ ,#*6/5 .'/ 760((#( /1 8&(3
siIes (5OO-1,OOO kiIoneleis (kn) and 1,OOO-5,5OO kn),
vhiIe olhei slales keep luiIding lheii aisenaIs. A key
poinl in lhese delales vas, hovevei, lhal Russia couId
inicl seiious danage lo ils slialegic inleiesls ly a po3
IilicaIIy nolivaled disnanlIing of lhis ciuciaI piIIai of
lhe nuch veakened nucIeai ains conlioI iegine.
26

In lhe neai fuluie, vilh lhe Iiague Tiealy in foice,
Moscov vouId haidIy feeI nuch lenplalion lo alan3
175
don lhe INI Tiealy, pailicuIaiIy since lhe pioduclion
Iine al ils onIy nissiIe pIanl in Volkinsk is lusy vilh
lhe oideis fion slialegic foices. The onIy possilIe con3
lioveisy invoIves lhe Iskandei-M (SS-26 Slone) noliIe
.07.&706 8&((&6# 72++#-.65 ,#*6/5#, &- +#*607#8#-. /1
lhe Tochka (SS-21 Scaial ), ils iange is ofhciaIIy ie3
poiled al 4OO kn, lul nay in facl exceed 5OO kn~so
lhe nissiIe is capalIe of peifoining effecliveIy lhe
lasks of lhe Oka (SS-23) nissiIe deslioyed in 1988-9O.
This conlioveisy couId le focused on lhe KaIiningiad
excIave, lul ils slialegic vuIneialiIily cannol le ie3
duced ly depIoying lhe Iskandei-M nissiIes lheie (as
Medvedev liiey oideied in eaiIy 2OO9), so il is pIau3
silIe lhal Moscov couId agiee on a seIf-inposed con3
8&.8#-. ./ '&.",+0' 066 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 1+/8 ."&(
iegion. Much vouId depend upon NATOs posilion
on lhe U.S. nucIeai assels in Luiope, vhich al piesenl
aie piaclicaIIy unusalIe.
=L-5O! =L4= Q-OL= O; 92;5O
This evaIualion of evoIving Russian peiceplions of
slialegic ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled Slales and Luiope
cannol Iead lo an infoined concIusion aloul lheii fui3
lhei evoIulion lecause lhey nol onIy ienain seiiousIy
incoheienl, lul piinaiiIy lecause lheii conneclion
vilh ieaIily is ialhei anlivaIenl. The nix of iising-
povei anlilions and decIining-povei feais iequiies
psychoIogicaI diagnoslics ialhei lhan ialionaI choice
anaIysis, lul lheie is neveilheIess a connon denoni3
naloi in lhis piagnalic-schizophienic voiIdviev. The
piesenl Russian Ieadeiship lakes foi an alsoIule in3
*#+0.&%# ."# *+#(#+%0.&/- /1 &.( 8/-/*/6&(.&7 7/-.+/6
/%#+ ."# */6&.&706 (5(.#89 #%#- &1 ."# #)*#+&8#-.06 0-,
sonevhal unnaluiaI consliucl of Iulin-Medvedev
176
duunviiale nighl le nodihed oi alandoned as soon
as 2O12. This fundanenlaI posil is, in facl, a ialhei
queslionalIe pioposilion as lhe econonic foundalion
of Iulinisn~lhe sleadiIy expanding pelio-ievenues~
is shaken ly lhe gIolaI ciisis and cannol suppoil lhe
funclioning of luieaucialic pyianid.
!"# 7+&(&( /1 ."# */6&.&706 (2*#+3(.+27.2+# /1 0 *#.3
io-slale couId lake vaiious luins deleinining a vide
specliun of possilIe shifls in lhe naluie of Russias se3
cuiily ieIalions vilh lhe Uniled Slales and NATO, lul
lefoie exanining lhe lieaks of lhe cuiienl liajecloiy,
il is essenliaI lo eslalIish vheie il Ieads. The piinaiy
goaI of pieseiving lhe exisling poIilicaI oidei IogicaIIy
nakes Russia a slalus quo povei deepIy ieIuclanl lo
expeiinenl vilh lesling lhe Iinils of secuiily aiiange3
nenls, inpeifecl as lhey aie. Il nighl seen lhal lhe
Augusl 2OO8 vai vilh Ceoigia vas exaclIy lhis kind
/1 #)*#+&8#-.9 0-, &-,##, &- &.( 01.#+80." ."#+# '#+#
pIenlifuI specuIalions lhal Russia vouId lehave as a
ievisionisl povei.
27
Il has lecone cIeai ly nov, hov3
evei, lhal even in lhal vai Russia sellIed foi a synloI3
ic vicloiy, vhich nakes il easy foi lhe LU and NATO
lo iesune lusiness as usuaI.
CIinging lo slalus quo in a fasl-changing enviion3
nenl is a vuIneialIe posilion, and Moscov hnds ilseIf
again and again oveilaken ly evenls lhal do nol hl
inlo lhe coiiecl picluie of lhe nuIlipoIai voiId. One
such fasl-noving inliigue focuses on Iian, and Mos3
7/' '0( =2&.# 7/-.#-. '&." ."# *0..#+- /1 (/8# 7/3
opeialion vilh Washinglon and sone slienglhening
of lhe good-neighloi lies vilh Tehian lhal has leen
suslained since lhe nid-199Os lul is coning lo an un3
avoidalIe end. Russia lakes ils piiviIeges as a nenlei
of lhe nucIeai cIul veiy seiiousIy and vouId have cei3
lainIy piefeiied Iian nol lo have nucIeai veapons. Al
177
lhe sane line, a nucIeai-ained Iian is nol seen as a
giave secuiily lhieal, neieIy as an undesiialIe deveI3
opnenl, vhich nighl le pievenlalIe (hence lhe ieadi3
ness lo suppoil sone snail sanclions) lul faIIs fai
shoil of lhe calegoiy of unacceplalIe.
28
A fai giealei
secuiily chaIIenge fion lhe Russian peispeclive is lhe
iisk of a uniIaleiaI U.S./IsiaeI niIilaiy aclion againsl
Iian, vhich couId liiggei a chain of asynneliicaI ie3
sponses and, no Iess inpoilanl, vouId signify a disie3
gaid foi Russian disappiovaI.
A siniIai unsuslainalIe slance is nainlained ly
Moscov lovaids lhe U.S. and NATO opeialion in Af3
ghanislan, vhich is seen lolh as a neuliaIizalion of
lhe diiecl lhieal fion lhe TaIilan lo CenliaI Asia and
as a nassive diain on Weslein iesouices. The Rus3
sian Ieadeiship shaies lhe viev piopagaled ly lhe lop
liass lhal lhe vai is unvinnalIe, lul il ceilainIy does
nol vanl lo le seen as a spoiIei of an inleinalionaI ef3
1/+.9 0-, (/ &( *+#*0+#, ./ *+/%&,# 7/(.31+## (2**/+.9
such as gianling liansil iighls.
29
The lesl oplion, as
fai as Moscov is conceined, vouId le foi lhe Uniled
Slales and NATO lo ienain invoIved in soiling oul
lhe Afghan disaslei foi yeais lo cone, and lhus ie3
nain unalIe lo engage in any olhei conicl silualions,
vilh lhe possilIe exceplion of lhe aIkans. This op3
lion, hovevei, is expiiing, and Russia~as ils iesponse
lo lhe slale faiIuie in Kyigyzslan shovs~is nol pie3
paied lo lake on addilionaI iesponsiliIilies foi guai3
anleeing secuiily in CenliaI Asia and has dininishing
niIilaiy capaliIilies foi such inleivenlions.
Ioiced Weslein ielieals fion Afghanislan and Iiaq
aie seen in Moscov as IogicaIIy foIIoving fion lhe
nuIlipoIai dynanics, lul lheie is as IillIe pIanning foi
such disaslious oulcones as lheie is in Washinglon
and iusseIs, vheie a vicloiy of soils is sliII leIieved
178
lo le non-negolialIe. Iulin leIieves lhal a hunlIed
hypei-povei vouId Ieain a Iesson, lul he nighl yel
discovei lhal an isoIalionisl posl-Olana Aneiica
vouId aIso le deleininedIy uniIaleiaIisl and incIined
lo piojecl ils unsuipassalIe niIilaiy povei in lhe foin
of punishing sliikes. Coiiupled ly alsoIule povei
as he is, Iulin sliII undeislands peifeclIy cIeaiIy lhal
Russia cannol affoid any ieaI confionlalion vilh lhe
Wesl oi lhe Uniled Slales lecause lhe econonic conse3
quences vouId le loo huilfuI. In facl, in lhe silualion
of pioliacled iecession, Russia needs as nuch coop3
eialion vilh lhe LU and lhe Uniled Slales as il can gel,
0-, ."&( #((#-.&0665 8#0-( ."0. ."# &8*#+0.&%# /1 *+#3
seiving conlioI ovei lhe poIilicaI syslen vouId push
Iulin lovaids giealei anily vilh lhe Wesl vhalevei
his peisonaI idiosynciasies nay le.
3O
!"# &((2# &( -/. '"#."#+ ."# 72++#-. 6#0,#+("&*
nighl decide lhal il couId lellei advance ils goaIs ly
luining again lo a quasi-CoId Wai slance (lhe noli3
Iizalion polenliaI of such a naneuvei is veiy Iiniled)
lul hov slalIe is lhis Ieadeiship. Iulin nay oiches3
.+0.# "&( +#.2+- ./ ."# -0.2+06 */(&.&/- 0. ."# ./* /1 ."#
pyianid in 2O12, lul lhis conelack vouId nol iendei
lhis issue iiieIevanl. The syslen of Iulinisn is deepIy
+/..#- 0-, 805 7/660*(# &- 0 -/ 6#(( (*#7.07260+ '05
lhan lhe USSR did in 1991.
31
UnIike Coilachev, Iulin
is a iulhIess poIilicaI aninaI and any sign of opposi3
lion has leen nelicuIousIy exleininaled, lul his couil
is iiddIed vilh cIan squallIes lhal aie exaceilaled ly
lhe shiinking of pelio-ievenues.
Il nay le a fascinaling occupalion lo noniloi lhe
discoid lelveen diffeienl faclions of si|cti|i (a nuch
ovei-eslinaled poIilicaI lody) oi lo uncovei lhe feuds
&-(&,# Gazprcn expIoiled ly lhe iising Tinchenko-
KovaIchuk lusiness enpiie, lul il is haidIy possilIe
179
lo hguie oul vhich conlinalion of couilieis nighl
slage a coup againsl lhe nalionaI Ieadei.
32
Il is cIeai,
"/'#%#+9 ."0. 2-,&62.#, 8#+70-.&6&(. &-.#+#(.( 0+# ."#
80&- ,+&%#+ /1 ."&( 6&%#65 7/8*#.&.&/-9 (/ -/ 06.#+-0.&%#
lo lhe lighl lusiness inlegialion vilh lhe LU~and ly
#).#-(&/- ./ ."# (#72+&.5 */6&75 /1 +0**+/7"#8#-. 0-,
de-faclo disainanenl~is shaping up. Thiee piopo3
silions on lhe cuiienl slale of lhis yzanline poIicy-
spinning can le advanced on lhe lasis of scanl evi3
dence and gul feeIing. The hisl one is lhal al lhe end
of Medvedevs piesidency, he is haidIy consideied
ly lhe key cIans as a possilIe successoi lo lhe doni3
neeiing Iulin. The second pioposilion is lhal Iulin no
Iongei ieIies upon~oi connands IoyaIly fion~lhe
speciaI seivices, incIuding lhe Russian IedeiaI Secu3
iily Seivice (IS), lhe successoi lo lhe KC. IinaIIy,
seveiaI iounds of puiges have Iefl lhe lop liass dis3
oiganized and disheailened, so poIilicaI anlilions in
lhis liadilionaIIy inuenliaI casle have aII lul disap3
peaied, vhiIe disconlenl is videspiead.
Whal foIIovs fion lhis unsulslanlialed ieasoning
is lhal a piolalIe allenpl lo iescue lhe seIf-seiving
piedaloiy iegine ly iepIacing Iulin vouId nol ie3
soIve any of lhe undeiIying fauIls, lul nighl liig3
gei a sliong and unexpecled poIilicaI ieaclion nol
dissiniIai lo lhal in lhe USSR aflei lhe Augusl 1991
pulsch. The possiliIily lhal a noie denocialic and
pio-Weslein goveinnenl vouId eneige oul of lhis
luiluIence appeais ialhei sIin. Leaving aside vaiious
calasliophic oplions (vhich aie ly no neans inpiol3
alIe), il is possilIe lo suggesl lhal lhe nosl piolalIe
oulcone is a popuIisl paliiolic iegine lhal vouId sel
foilh a piogian foi iescuing Russia fion faiIuie ly
slienglhening lhe slale and expiopiialing lhe sloIen
piopeily and capilaI.
18O
Such a haid-diiven Russia nighl luin oul lo le a
difhcuIl neighloi (excepl foi China), lul ils lehavioi
'/26, &- 0 ,#7&(&%# 8#0(2+# ,#*#-, 2*/- ."# #7/3
nonic and poIilicaI dynanics in lhe Wesl. A nod3
eialeIy funclionaI NATO undei a ieconsliluled and
sensilIe U.S. Ieadeiship has nolhing lo voiiy aloul
fion lhis lioulIed and sliuggIing nol-so-gieal povei.
Luiopean secuiily vouId Iook veiy diffeienl if an
LU puIIed apail ly cenliifugaI foices cannol ieIy on
suppoil fion an isoIalionisl Uniled Slales. The aI3
lic slales in pailicuIai couId le exposed lo piessuie
fion Russia, lul lhis nighl nol le seen as a seiious
secuiily chaIIenge in Washinglon oi even in iusseIs.
Russia cannol achieve any alsoIule inciease in povei,
and specihcaIIy niIilaiy povei, and cannol sliongIy
inuence ils secuiily enviionnenl, vhich can, nevei3
lheIess, change in such a vay lhal Russia vouId hnd
ilseIf vilh a signihcanl ieIalive gain in povei~and
vouId le lenpled lo use il.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 \
1. The lein is inlioduced in lhe MiIilaiy Docliine, vhich vas
appioved aflei deIays in Ieliuaiy 2O1O, and dehned as a slale
of inleinalionaI oi inleinaI affaiis chaiacleiized ly a conlinalion
of faclois lhal undei ceilain condilions couId Iead lo eneigence
of niIilaiy lhieal. The Iisl of lhese exleinaI niIilaiy dangeis is
opened ly The desiie lo gianl gIolaI funclions lo lhe niIilaiy ca3
pacily of NATO, vhich couId le execuled in vioIalion of noins of
inleinalionaI Iav, lo depIoy lhe niIilaiy infiasliucluie of NATO
nenlei-slales cIosei lo lhe loideis of lhe Russian Iedeialion, in3
cIuding ly enIaigenenl of lhe lIoc. The alove is lhe aulhois
liansIalion, oiiginaI in Russian avaiIalIe fion ncus.|rcn|in.ru/
rcf_nc|cs/461.
2. These vievs aie exlensiveIy anaIyzed in Slephen I. Cohen,
Sctic| |a|cs and |cs| A||crna|itcs, Nev Yoik: CoIunlia Univeisily
Iiess, 2OO9, see pailicuIaiIy Chaplei 7, Who Iosl lhe posl-Soviel
peace` pp. 162-198.
181
3. A key pioponenl of lhis viev is Seigei Kaiaganov, Sliale3
gic Havoc, Russia in G|coa| Affairs, }anuaiy-Maich 2O1O, avaiIalIe
1+/8 cng.g|coa|affairs.ru/nunocrs/30/1329.n|n|.
4. Ioi lhe aulhois noie eIaloiale anaIysis of lhal evoIulion,
see IaveI aev, Russian |ncrgq Pc|icq and Mi|i|arq Pcucr, London,
UK: RoulIedge, 2OO8.
5. See Iedoi Lukyanov, Russian diIennas in a nuIlipoIai
voiId, ]curna| cf |n|crna|icna| Affairs, VoI. 63, No. 2, Spiing-Sun3
nei 2O1O, pp. 19-32.
6. This iisk is enphasized in VIadisIav Inozenlsev, Dieans
aloul a nuIli-poIai voiId, Nczatisinaqa gazc|a, Seplenlei 18,
2OO8, in Russian.
7. Il is inleiesling lo nole lhal sone lhieals in lhis docunenl
aie desciiled in veiy dehnile leins (CIolaI infoinalionaI sliug3
gIe viII inciease), vhiIe olheis aie piesenled in a noie ciicun3
specl vay (In conpelilion foi iesouices, allenpls al iesoIving lhe
eneiging piolIens vilh niIilaiy foice cannol le iuIed oul. . . .).
Aulhois liansIalion, lhe Russian lexl is avaiIalIe fion uuu.scrf.
gct.ru/dccuncn|s/99.n|n|.
8. Sone lhieals appeai lo le invenled specihcaIIy foi naking
dipIonalic pioleslalions, foi inslance Denonslialion of niIilaiy
povei in lhe couise of exeicises on leiiiloiy of slales loideiing
lhe Russian Iedeialion oi ils aIIies vilh piovocalive ains. One
usefuI oveiviev is Keii CiIes, The MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Rus3
sian Iedeialion 2O1O, Rcscarcn Rcticu, Rone, IlaIy: NATO De3
fense CoIIege, Ieliuaiy 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ndc.na|c.in|/
rcscarcn/scrics.pnp?iccdc=9.
9. One insighlfuI evaIualion of lhis iefoin is VilaIy ShIykov,
The seciels of Seidyukovs lIilzkiieg, Russia in G|coa| Affairs9
}anuaiy-Maich 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion cng.g|coa|affairs.ru/nun-
ocrs/30/1331.n|n|.
182
1O. A noie delaiIed anaIysis of lhis liansfoinalion is found
in IaveI aev, MiIilaiy iefoin againsl heavy odds, Andeis s3
Iund, Seigei Cuiiev, and Andiev Kuchins, eds., Russia Af|cr |nc
G|coa| |ccncnic Crisis, Washinglon, DC: Ieleison Inslilule foi In3
leinalionaI Lcononics, 2O1O.
11. Lxpeil discussion of lhis issue is in Cuiienl piolIens and
Iogic of lhe niIilaiy iefoin, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, May
14, 2OO9, in Russian. See aIso AIeksandi Hianchihin, AII in aII~
85 peinanenl ieadiness liigades, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic9
Oclolei 16, 2OO9, in Russian.
12. Ioi a ciilicaI anaIysis of lhe Voslok-2O1O exeicises in }uIy
2O1O, see AIeksandi Hianchihin, Inadequale Vcs|ck, Nczatisi-
ncc tccnncc coczrcnic, }uIy 23, 2O1O, in Russian.
13. On lhe disnaI slale of Russian aii defense syslen, vhich
cuiienlIy can inleicepl al lesl 2O peicenl of aiiciafl oi nissiIes
laigeling Moscov, see OIeg VIadykin, HoIes in space defense,
Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, May 21, 2O1O, in Russian.
14. Vcqcnnaqa Dc||rina Rcssiqs|cq |cdcra|sii (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc
cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
scrf.gct.ru/dccuncn|s/33.n|n|.
15. One usefuI anaIysis of lhis issue is AIeksei Ailalov, Tac3
licaI nucIeai veapons~piolIens and piospecls, Vccnnc-prc-
nqsn|cnnqi |urqcr, May 5, 2O1O, in Russian, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
carncgic.ru/puo|ica|icns/?fa=40747.
16. Thus, NikoIai Ialiushev, lhe Secielaiy of lhe Secuiily
CounciI, ieveaIed lhal condilions foi use of nucIeai veapons foi
iepeIIing aggiession vilh lhe use of convenlionaI veapons aie
coiiecled nol onIy foi a Iaige-scaIe lul aIso foi a iegionaI oi even
a IocaI vai. He fuilhei cIaiihed lhal in silualions ciilicaI foi na3
lionaI secuiily, lhe possiliIily of a pieenplive (pievenlive) nucIe3
ai sliike on lhe aggiessoi is nol iuIed oul. The MiIilaiy Docliine
does nol conlain such pioposilions, lul he vas in chaige of ie3
vising seveiaI eaiIiei diafls. See VIadinii Manonlov, Russia is
changing, and ils niIilaiy docliine is changing aIso, inleiviev
vilh NikoIai Ialiushev, |ztcs|iqa, Oclolei 14, 2OO9, in Russian.
183
17. See Seigei ZhuiavIev, On conlal ieadiness: The
1,OOO,OOO-sliong ainy cannol hghl, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrc-
nic, ApiiI 2, 2O1O, in Russian.
18. My noie delaiIed evaIualion can le found in IaveI aev,
Russia in lhe Caucasus: LxpIoiling lhe vicloiy foi luiIding a po3
silion of slienglh, o HuIdl c| a|., eds., Russia cn Our Minds: S|ra-
|cgic Ycarocc| 2008-2009, SlockhoIn, Sveden: NalionaI Defense
Univeisily, 2O1O.
19. See AIeksandi Kaiavaev, Russian-Ukiainian synliosis,
Nczatisinaqa gazc|a, }une 2, 2O1O, in Russian, CIel IavIovsky,
Iax Medvedica, Russ|ii znurna|, May 4, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.russ.ru/Mirctaqa-pctcs||a/Pax-Mcdtcdica.
2O. Na|sicna|naqa S|ra|cgiqa 8czcpasncs|i Rcssii, dc 2020 Gcda9
Moscov, Russia: Secuiily CounciI of lhe Russian Iedeialion, May
12, 2OO9, avaiIalIe in Russian fion uuu.scrf.gct.ru, avaiIalIe in
LngIish fion |8|S SOV, May 15, 2OO9, in liansIalion fion lhe Se3
cuiily CounciI velsile, Vcqcnnaqa Dcc|rina Rcssiqs|cq |cdcra|sii
(Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn).
21. The ofhciaI liansIalion of lhe conveisalion vilh jouinaI3
isls on Decenlei 29, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion prcnicr.gct.ru/cng/tis-
i|s/ru/8759/ctcn|s/8815/. One shaip connenl is AIeksandi CoIls,
Iulin deiaiIs lhe laIks` |zncdnctnq znurna|, Decenlei 3O, 2OO9,
cj.ru/?a=nc|ccid=9772.
22. One good assessnenl of lhis piospecl is Vikloi MihaiIov
and VIadinii Slepanov, Key diieclions of lhe nev US adnin3
islialion in anli-nissiIe defense, Sccuri|q |ndcx, VoI. 16, No. 2,
Sunnei 2O1O, pp. 115-119.
23. On lhe Iink lelveen slialegic offense and defense, see Vik3
loi Lilovkin, Russia and US have lo have a seiious laIk on lhe
laIance of slialegic ains, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, May 21,
2O1O, in Russian.
24. See VIadykin, on lhe piolIens vilh ieseaich and deveIop3
nenl of lhe S-4OO Tiiunph suiface-lo-aii nissiIe conpIexes, see
Tiiunph vilhoul a liiunph, Infoinalion neno, Decenlei
16, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion prc-spc-rc.|itcjcurna|.ccn/260.n|n|. A soIid
184
anaIysis can le found in AIeksei Ailalov, Slialegic suiieaIisn of
dulious concepl, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, Maich 5, 2O1O, in
Russian.
25. See Dnilii Rogozin, NATO faces lhe choice, Nczatisi-
naqa gazc|a, May 17, 2O1O, in Russian. See aIso VIadinii Ivanov,
NATO luiIds an anli-nissiIe shieId, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrc-
nic, May 21, 2O1O, in Russian.
26. See AIeksei Ailalov, An unnecessaiy and dangeious
slep, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, Maich 2, 2OO7, in Russian.
Il shouId le noled lhal Rose CollenoeIIei, lhen lhe Diiecloi of
Cainegie Moscov Cenlei, nade an inpoilanl conliilulion lo
lhose delales. See Tiealies on lhe liink of faiIuie, Nczatisinaqa
gazc|a, Oclolei 22, 2OO7, in Russian.
27. An inuenliaI voik eIaloialing lhis idea is RonaId D. As3
82(9 A |i|||c lar |na| Sncc| |nc lcr|d, Nev Yoik: IaIgiave McMiI3
Ian, 2O1O. The aulhoi has aIso pul foivaid a chaIIenging lhesis
aloul IinIandizalion of Laslein Luiope. See Transa||an|ic Ta|c9
May 27, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion o|cg.gnfus.crg/2010/05/27/|nc-spcc|cr-
cf-jn|andiza|icn/. His concIusion lhal ve need a nev slialegy of
enIaigenenl appeais posiliveIy pio-aclive, lul lhe olvious un3
feasiliIily of lhis pIan nakes il necessaiy lo ie-exanine lhe poinl
of depailuie.
28. See Dnilii Tienin, Russia, Iian and uianiun, |n-
csni.ru, }une 11, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.carncgic.ru/
puo|ica|icns/?fa=40982, AIexandei Iikayev, Why Russia suppoil3
ed sanclions againsl Iian` CNS Rcpcr|, }une 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
cns.niis.cdu/s|crics/100623_russia_iran_pi|aqct.n|n.
29. A good sanpIe of Russian allilude is oiis Cionov and
Dnilii Rogozin, Russian advice on Afghanislan, Ncu Ycr|
Tincs, }anuaiy 11, 2O1O. A noie nuanced anaIysis is Dnilii Tienin
and AIeksei MaIashenko, Afgnanis|an. a Vicu frcn Mcsccu, Mos3
cov, Russia: Cainegie Cenlei, ApiiI 2O1O.
3O. On Iulins neeling vilh lhe 1O pseudo-spies caughl in lhe
Uniled Slales, see Dnilii Sidoiov, The MolheiIand slails again,
Nctaqa gazc|a, }uIy 28, 2O1O, in Russian.
185
31. MikhaiI Coilachev has iecenlIy aigued aloul lhe iisks of
lhe spIil lelveen lhe iegine and lhe sociely, see IaveI aev, Coi3
lachev vains of expIosive piolIens vilh Medvedevs nodein3
izalion, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, }uIy 26, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
jancs|cun.crg/prcgrans/cdn/arcnitcscdn/2010/.
32. A good souice on lhe pelio-poIilics is lhe li-veekIy luI3
Ielin, IoIilicaI iisks in lhe Russian oiI-&-gas conpIex, pioduced
ly lhe NalionaI Lneigy Secuiily Iund, avaiIalIe fion uuu.cncr-
gqs|a|c.ru/cng/.
187
6L4:=82 ]
5367842 984:;5! -5
23!!-45 54=-;547 !8632-=R !=24=8OR
5'10E$' !010F
Speaking on Novenlei 11, 2OO9, duiing a visil
lo lhe oIdesl Russian nucIeai veapons Ialoialoiy
al Saiov, Ialiiaich KiiiII, head of Russian Oilhodox
Chuich, endoised nucIeai veapons and nucIeai de3
leiience. CaIIing lhe cIosuie of lhe Sl. Seiaphin non3
asleiy al lhe pIace of lhe nucIeai Ial ly Soviel au3
lhoiilies a sinfuI acl, he aIso congialuIaled lhe Ial
enpIoyees vho, al lhe hone of Sl. Seiaphin |deveI3
opedj a veapon of deleiience lhal pievenled WoiId
Wai III. We nusl sliive foi a voiId vilhoul nucIeai
veapons, he enphasized, lul in a nannei lhal does
nol huil oui counliy.
1
This slalenenl, vhich slands in slaik conliasl lo
lhe posilion advocaled ly lhe najoiily of chuich Iead3
#+( &- ."# ?#(.9 &( &- .2-# '&." ."# ,/8&-0-. %&#'
anong lhe Russian pulIic. NucIeai veapons aie vide3
Iy iegaided as a synloI and a guaianlee of Russias
inuence, independence, and secuiily~lhe uIlinale
unlealalIe caid in gIolaI povei poIilics. The voiId
is iegaided as a dangeious pIace, fuII of polenliaI oi
acluaI enenies lhal vouId allack oi suljugale Russia
any nonenl if il is unalIe lo ciush lhe allackei, lhe
Uniled Slales and lhe Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiganiza3
lion (NATO) as a vhoIe (and, noie iaieIy, China) lop
lhe Iisl of lhieals.
SeIf-ieIiance and especiaIIy ieIiance on lhe na3
lions ovn niIilaiy povei has deep iools in lhe Rus3
sian psyche. Lven a casuaI visiloi lo nany Russian
188
Inleinel foiuns viII hnd pailicipanls fondIy quoling
AIexandei III, a Iale 19lh cenluiy Russian lsai knovn
as Ieacenakei (Russia did nol vage najoi vais
duiing his ieign) lhal Russia had onIy lvo ieIialIe aI3
Iies~ils Ainy and ils Navy. Many nov add lhe lhiid
aIIy~Slialegic Rockel Ioices.
The goveinnenl ieadiIy suppoils lhis senlinenl.
olh Iiesidenl Dniliy Medvedev and Iiine Minislei
VIadinii Iulin nake fiequenl slalenenls aloul lheii
allenlion lo nucIeai foices. The Duna ieadiIy appioves
ludgels foi Slialegic Ioices. Road-noliIe inleiconli3
nenlaI laIIislic nissiIes (ICMs) ioII lhiough lhe Red
Squaie duiing hoIiday paiades. CeilainIy, lhis neans
lhal Moscov is and viII ienain consliained vhen il
cones lo concessions in ains conlioI negolialions~
nucIeai veapons aie nol a caid lhal couId le ieadiIy
liaded.
The Russian goveinnenl pulIicIy suppoils lhe
goaI of a nucIeai-fiee voiId, lul lhal goaI is iegaided
so Iong-lein lhal il lecones inpiaclicaI. When Iulin
iecenlIy signed a Iav on funding foi upgiades lo fa3
7&6&.&#( 0-, #=2&*8#-. 1/+ 0 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 7/8*6#)
(piinaiiIy lo ensuie ieIialiIily of veapons), he nen3
.&/-#, ."0. ."# 7/2-.+5 '/26, -##, ."#8 1/+ ."# -#).
3O-4O-5O yeais.
2
The piohIe of nucIeai veapons is fuilhei incieased
ly lhe vide (and peihaps even unliidgealIe) gap le3
lveen Russia and lhe Uniled Slales/NATO in nodein
lechnoIogy. This gap pievenls Moscov fion shifling
#8*"0(&( 1+/8 -276#0+ ./ 7/-%#-.&/-06 0((#.( 0-, 12+3
lhei slienglhens Iong-lein ieIiance on nucIeai veap3
ons in nalionaI secuiily poIicy.
>. ."# (08# .&8#<0-, &- 0**0+#-. 7/-.+0(. ./
pulIic posluiing~funding foi nainlenance and nod3
einizalion ienains Iiniled. Iioduclion of nev deIiv3
189
eiy vehicIes is appaienlIy leIov lhe oplinaI IeveI (lhe
Iovesl cosl pei unil) and ieseaich and deveIopnenl
(R&D) piogians ienain undeifunded oi, al lesl,
funded al laie nininun. LffecliveIy, lhe goveinnenl
can le said lo lake a nininaIisl allilude lovaid
ils nucIeai capaliIily. WhiIe lhis pallein legan dui3
ing lhe line of ieIalive hnanciaI scaicily, il conlinued
lhiough lhe noie hnanciaIIy favoialIe peiiod aInosl
vilhoul change and ienains lhe sane loday. Theie is
no indicalion lhal Moscov pIans lo iadicaIIy inciease
funding foi eilhei pioduclion oi nodeinizalion of ils
nucIeai aisenaI. The queslion ienains open vhelhei
Iiniled funding ieecls a ieIaliveIy skeplicaI viev of
lhe possilIe ioIe of nucIeai veapons in Russias se3
cuiily. This chaplei viII addiess lhe foIIoving issues
ieIevanl lo lhe undeislanding of lhe fuluie of lhe Rus3
sian nucIeai capaliIily:
- The ioIe of nucIeai veapons in secuiily poIicy.
WhiIe lhe pulIic piohIe of nucIeai veapons is
enoinous, of giealei ieIevance aie lhe nissions
assigned lo nucIeai veapons and lheii evoIu3
lion in lhe Iasl 2O yeais. Of speciaI inleiesl aie
lhe ioIes, if any, of laclicaI (nonslialegic) nucIe3
ai veapons, vhich aie incieasingIy visilIe in
inleinalionaI delales.
- Modeinizalion piogians. Whal aie lhe ieasons
foi lhe appaienl gap lelveen lhe high pulIic
piohIe of nucIeai veapons and lhe ieIaliveIy
Iiniled funding` Hov aie nodeinizalion pio3
gians ieIaled lo nucIeai nissions`
- Whal aie lhe piospecls foi liansilion fion nu3
cIeai lo convenlionaI capaliIily` This has leen
a slaled goaI of lhe Russian goveinnenl, lul
can Russia acluaIIy inpIenenl il` This seclion
viII aIso lackIe delales aloul aliogalion of lhe
19O
Inleinediale-Range NucIeai Ioices (INI) Tiea3
ly: WhiIe lhal agieenenl piovided foi ieduc3
.&/- /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 &. &( "0( 0**0+#-.65
lecone pail of a poIicy ained al enhancing
convenlionaI capaliIily.
- Whal is lhe inpacl of U.S. nissiIe defense pIans
on lhe Russian nucIeai posluie, and hov has
il changed in lhe Iasl yeai oi so` Is lheie any
piospecl foi coopeialion vilh lhe Uniled Slales
and NATO on nissiIe defense and vhal aie lhe
Iinils of lhal coopeialion`
Key concIusions can le sunnaiized as foIIovs:
1. Duiing lhe Iasl 1O-15 yeais, Russian nucIeai poI3
&75 "0( #)*#+&#-7#, 0**+/)&80.#65 ."# (08# #%/62.&/-
as lhal of olhei nucIeai veapons slales (NWS)~giad3
206 &-7+#0(# &- ."# *#+7#&%#, +/6# /1 ."#(# '#0*/-(9
eneigence of nev nissions, and lhen, lovaid lhe end
of lhis decade, giaduaI ieduclion of lheii ioIe. In Rus3
(&09 ."# ,#7+#0(# /1 ."# +/6# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( "0(
leen sonevhal Iess pionounced lhan in olhei NWS.
2. NucIeai veapons have lvo nissions. One is lia3
dilionaI slialegic deleiience~pievenlion of a Iaige-
scaIe aggiession againsl Russia. The olhei, vhich is
7/-(&,#+#, 8/+# *#+.&-#-. 2-,#+ *+#(#-. 7&+7283
(.0-7#(9 &( ,#.#++#-7# /1 0 8/+# 6&8&.#, 7/-%#-.&/-06
allack ly a poveifuI counliy oi an aIIiance (a cIeai ief3
eience lo lhe Uniled Slales and NATO), vhich cannol
le iepeIIed vilh Russian convenlionaI foices aIone.
RecenlIy, lhe peiceived uigency of lhe Iallei nission
has sonevhal ieceded, lul il ienains on lhe looks.
3. Russia seeks lo giaduaIIy shifl enphasis fion
nucIeai lo Iong-iange high-piecision convenlionaI as3
sels. Il has leen al Ieasl 15-2O yeais lehind lhe Uniled
Slales and ils aIIies, hovevei, and lhe veidicl is sliII
191
oul as lo vhelhei il viII le alIe lo covei lhal gap. Il is
cIeai lhal effoils viII conlinue, in pailicuIai lecause
nucIeai veapons aie incieasingIy seen as unusalIe
and lhus nol veiy ieIevanl foi secuiily poIicy.
4. NucIeai posluie has seen ialhei iadicaI changes
in lhe hisl haIf of lhis decade foIIoving a fundanenlaI
ievision of Iong-lein pIans in 2OOO and lhen a seiies
of pailiaI ievisions lo nev poIicy. CuiienlIy, Rus3
sia seens lo le noving lovaid a posluie lhal can le
chaiacleiized as a laIanced dyad~a ieIaliveIy equaI
(6O lo 4O peicenl) disliilulion of nucIeai vaiheads le3
lveen lhe Iand and lhe sea Iegs. The aii Ieg ienains
pail of lhe nucIeai liiad, lul onIy foinaIIy~lhe nain
nission of Iong-iange aiiciafl is incieasingIy conven3
lionaI and, fuilheinoie, ils nucIeai assels aie suljecl
lo lhe Ieasl nodeinizalion.
5. The Russian nucIeai foice ienains oId~lhe luIk
of deIiveiy syslens aie sliII lhose pioduced in lhe So3
viel Union. The iale of pioduclion and depIoynenl
of nev veapons is leIov vhal pioduclion capaliIily
can suslain. Moie inpoilanlIy, pioduclion capaliIily
giaduaIIy decieases as veII, and lhe Russian govein3
nenl does nol appeai inleiesled in suslaining aliIily
lo expand pioduclion. This sliongIy suggesls lhal lhe
oveiaII size of lhe nucIeai foice viII giaduaIIy decIine
0-, ."0. ,#6&%#+5 %#"&76#( '&66 70++5 ."# 80)&828
Ioad of vaiheads.
6. Conliaiy lo connon peiceplion, shoil-iange nu3
cIeai assels (nonslialegic nucIeai veapons |NSNWj)
do nol appeai lo pIay a signihcanl ioIe in Russias
secuiily poIicy, and lheie aie no disceinilIe nissions
assigned lo lhen vilh lhe exceplion of navaI assels.
Conlinued Russian iesislance lo ains conlioI nea3
suies vilh iegaid lo NSNW is piinaiiIy expIained ly
lhe aIignnenl of doneslic poIilics.
192
7. The cuiienl liends viII nake Russia inleiesled
&- 12+."#+ +#,27.&/-( /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 *#+"0*( ./
lhe IeveI of aiound 1,OOO slialegic vaiheads. Il seens
lhal Russia viII piolalIy vanl lo pause al aloul lhal
poinl. Reaching nev agieenenls viII nol le easy,
"/'#%#+9 ,2# ./ ."# 826.&*6&7&.5 /1 ,&%&(&%# &((2#( ."0.
have eneiged in lhe Iasl 2O yeais and especiaIIy dui3
ing lhis decade. Iosl-Nev Slialegic Ains Reduclion
Tiealy (START) negolialions aie IikeIy lo le difhcuIl
and line-consuning.
8. The uigency of lhe nissiIe defense issue has ie3
ceded ialhei consideialIy in lhe Iasl yeai, aIlhough
pulIic slalenenls do nol ieecl lhal. The giealesl con3
cein is nol aloul lhe cuiienl oi lhe shoil-lein Aneii3
can capaliIily, lul ialhei aloul lhe capaliIily lhal
nighl eneige ly lhe end of lhis decade. This Ieaves
consideialIe naigin of oppoilunily lo fuilhei discuss
lhis issue and peihaps deveIop a sel of piediclaliIily
and lianspaiency neasuies lhal nighl heIp aIIevi3
ale lhe conlioveisy. Coopeialion in nissiIe defense
ienains possilIe and couId le lhe ieaI Iong-lein
ansvei.
9. On lhe suiface, lhe liajecloiy of Russian slialegy
is siniIai lo vhal lhe Uniled Slales has leen doing
in lhe Iasl 2 decades~enphasis is giaduaIIy shifling
lovaid Iong-iange high-piecision convenlionaI capa3
liIily, Russia acliveIy deveIops nissiIe defense capa3
liIily, elc. This siniIaiily is nisIeading, hovevei, and
viII haidIy nake ains conlioI negolialions any easiei
lecause lheie is an inpoilanl asynneliy lelveen lhe
lvo counliies. Wheieas lhe Uniled Slales, foi ieasons
of ils geogiaphicaI Iocalion, needs slialegic capaliIily
in lolh convenlionaI and defense assels, Russia en3
phasizes lhealei-iange assels. ConsequenlIy, il viII ie3
nain highIy suspicious aloul U.S. pIans lo lhe exlenl
193
lhal lhey couId lheoielicaIIy affecl lhe ciediliIily of
slialegic deleiience lhal is iegaided as lhe foundalion
of lhe exisling inleinalionaI syslen.
23!!-45 M-89! ;5 =L8 2;78 ;@ 5367842
984:;5!
NucIeai veapons have lhiee pailiaIIy oveiIapping
ioIes in Russian nalionaI secuiily poIicy, vhich can le
desciiled as slalus synloI, exislenliaI deleiience, and
*60-( 1/+ 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 2-,#+ 7#+.0&- (*#3
cihc conlingencies, hisl and foienosl lo delei Iaige-
scaIe use of convenlionaI foices againsl Russia ly lhe
Uniled Slales and NATO.
1. The ioIe of nucIeai veapons as a synloI of sla3
lus is quile sliaighlfoivaid, aIlhough ialhei difhcuIl
lo dehne in cIeai-cul, unanliguous leins. Slalus as a
iecognized nucIeai veapons slale, aIong vilh a pei3
nanenl seal on lhe Uniled Nalions Secuiily CounciI
(UNSC), coupIed vilh lhe iighl of velo, aie lhe nosl
visilIe and peihaps lhe onIy ienaining vesliges of
gieal-povei anlilions. IailiaIIy, lhis seIf-inage salis3
hes lhe noslaIgia~pailicuIaiIy videIy spiead anong
lhe pulIic~foi lhe Soviel Unions nunlei lvo pIace
in lhe CoId Wai inleinalionaI syslen.
Moie inpoilanlIy, nucIeai slalus hls veiy veII
vilh lhe foivaid-Iooking concepluaIizalion of lhe
eneiging posl-posl-CoId Wai (lo loiiov CoIin Iov3
eIIs lein) inleinalionaI syslen as nuIlipoIai, in vhich
Russia sees ilseIf as one of lhe cenleis of povei and
inuence. Il shouId le noled, hovevei, lhal lhe lein
(nuIlipoIaiily) is seiiousIy nisused in Russia.
3
In facl,
Russian Ieadeis, vhen lhey laIk aloul nuIlipoIaiily,
appeai lo nean a conceil~a syslen siniIai lo lhe
1815 Vienna Congiess aiiangenenls. They see lhe
194
fuluie inleinalionaI syslen as lased on a consensus
of key pIayeis~counliies vilh lhe giealesl econonic
and niIilaiy povei. In lhal concepluaIizalion, Russia
is accoided lhe pIace of one of lhe piIIais of lhe eneig3
ing syslen~a slale vilh speciaI iighls and iespon3
siliIilies. AIlhough Moscov iecognizes~and veI3
cones~lhe iise of nev cenleis of povei leyond lhe
hve peinanenl nenleis of lhe UNSC (such as India,
Ceinany, }apan, iaziI, elc.), il is aIso keen on pie3
seiving ceilain speciaI piiviIeges. Ioi exanpIe, Ioi3
eign Minislei Seigey Laviov iecenlIy desciiled India
as a polenliaI nev peinanenl nenlei of lhe UNSC,
lul caulioned lhal onIy oId peinanenl UNSC nen3
leis shouId have lhe iighl of velo.
4
The piospecl of nucIeai disainanenl puls Russian
Ieadeis inlo a ialhei avkvaid silualion. On lhe one
hand, lhey cannol queslion lhe IegaI (undei AilicIe VI
of lhe NucIeai Non-IioIifeialion Tiealy |NITj) oi lhe
noiaI olIigalion lo disain. On lhe olhei hand, eIini3
nalion of nucIeai veapons vouId depiive Russia of
one of ils key slalus synloIs. Speaking in Ieliuaiy
2OO8 al lhe Confeience on Disainanenl in Ceneva,
Laviov endoised lhe nucIeai disainanenl inilialives
of Ceoige SchuIlz, WiIIian Ieiiy, Heniy Kissingei,
and San Nunn, lul in a ialhei haIf-heailed nannei
and iefeiied lo il as a veiy Iong-lein piospecl.
5
In
Decenlei 2OO8, al a neeling vilh lhe Associalion of
Luiopean usinesses in Russia, Laviov chaiacleiized
nucIeai disainanenl as an unceilain goaI vhose so3
Iulion is hanpeied ly nuIlipIe uniesoIved issues.
6

The appaienl conliadiclion is iesoIved, il seens, ly
poslponing lhe hnaI soIulion inlo a dislanl fuluie.
2. LxislenliaI deleiience iefeis lo a geneiaI, vague
nolion lhal no ialionaI counliy oi aIIiance, incIuding
lhe Uniled Slales and NATO, viII allack Russia le3
195
cause Russia can iespond vilh nucIeai veapons. This
is a guaianlee againsl a lhieal lhal, foi aII inlenls and
puiposes, does nol exisl. As a iesuIl, nucIeai veap3
ons aie oflen poiliayed as a jusl-in-case deleiience
foi lhe unIikeIy silualion vhen, sone line in lhe in3
dehnile fuluie, lhe Uniled Slales oi anolhei poveifuI
counliy oi coaIilion lecones hosliIe lo Russia.
Al a deepei psychoIogicaI IeveI, ieIiance on nu3
cIeai deleiience ieecls unceilainly aloul lhe unpie3
diclalIe inleinalionaI enviionnenl and lhe Iack of
conhdence in Russias povei and inuence. NucIeai
veapons pIayed a siniIai ioIe duiing lhe CoId Wai~
0 *+/* 1/+ 0 7/2-.+5 ."0. 8/+# /+ 6#(( 072.#65 (#-(#,
lhal lhe eneny, lhe Uniled Slales and lhe Weslein
connunily in geneiaI, veie loo poveifuI. The liauna
of lhe 199Os, vhen Russia suddenIy found ilseIf veak
and vuIneialIe, ieinfoiced lhe psychoIogicaI need foi
lhe uIlinale secuiily guaianlee. The need foi lhal piop
shouId disappeai if lhe pIace of Russia in lhe eneiging
inleinalionaI syslen lecones cIeaiei and, especiaIIy if
lhe counliy lecones noie deepIy inlegialed inlo lhe
gIolaI econony.
The Iallei piocess has leen deveIoping quile veII
vheie ieIalions lelveen Russia and lhe Luiopean
Union (LU) aie conceined: even loday nol onIy aie
nany LU slales (in pailicuIai lhe OId Luiope) ieIuc3
lanl lo enlei inlo a conicl vilh Russia, lul Moscov
is equaIIy ieIuclanl lo enlei inlo a conicl vilh lhen.
The U.S.-Russian ieIalionship, unfoilunaleIy, does
-/. "0%# 0 (/6&, #7/-/8&7 1/2-,0.&/- 5#.9 0-, 7/-(#3
quenlIy poIilicaI and secuiily ieIalions Iack slaliIily.
The need foi sliongei inleidependence is fuilhei ie3
infoiced ly lhe leIief of Russian Ieadeis (pailicuIaiIy
sliong anong lhe Iulin and Medvedev geneialion)
."0. #7/-/8&7 &-.#+,#*#-,#-7# &( 7#-.+06 ./ 7//*3
196
eialion and vai pievenlion: lhis leIief vas loiioved
fion Aneiican poIilicaI science Iileialuie duiing lheii
foinalive yeais in lhe 197Os and 198Os.
Anolhei conpIicaling facloi is lhe veakness of
econonic and poIilicaI Ieveis of inuence in lhe inlei3
-0.&/-06 0+#-09 '"&7" (#+%#( ./ #-"0-7# ."# *#+7#&%#,
inpoilance of niIilaiy insliunenls. AIlhough Russia
7/26, */.#-.&0665 2(# &.( */(&.&/- 0( 0- #)*/+.#+ /1 /&6
and gas, lhis is, in ieaIily, a doulIe-edged svoid: an al3
.#8*. ./ 2(# &. 7/26, "0+8 ."# 8/(. &8*/+.0-. (/2+7#
of ievenue foi lhe goveinnenl and piivale (seni-pii3
vale) lusiness and vaslIy slienglhen lhe desiie of ils
cusloneis lo diveisify eneigy souices (lheiely eIini3
naling Russian inuence as veII as piohl). Inslead,
Moscov is liying lo luiId a iepulalion as a ieIialIe
suppIiei and has leen ieIuclanl lo even hinl al inlei3
iuplion of expoils. The facl lhal dependence on Rus3
sian oiI and gas expoils does nol affecl lhe ialhei coId,
sonelines even hosliIe, allilude of Laslein Luiopean
counliies (such as IoIand) lovaid Russia suggesls
."0. ."# 2.&6&.5 /1 ."&( ,#*#-,#-7# 0( 0 */6&.&706 6#%#+
is, al lesl, veiy Iiniled. Seen lhiough Russian eyes,
Russian expoils acluaIIy depend on olhei counliies~
on Ukiaine, vhich piovides lhe nain liansil ioule,
and on CenliaI Asia, vhich is an inpoilanl souice
of naluiaI gas lhal is ie-expoiled lo Luiope. Inslead
of using oiI and gas expoils as a Ievei, Moscov has
lo hghl lo hoId on lo ils naikel againsl aIleinalive
ioules (acioss lhe Caspian Sea and Soulh Caucasus).
SeveiaI ciises in ieIalions vilh Ukiaine, vhen liansil
lo Luiope vas inleiiupled oi neaiIy inleiiupled (aII of
lhese cases veie lIaned on Russia), ciealed an acule
sense of dependence in Russia and a desiie lo luiId aI3
leinalive ioules of ils ovn lhiough lhe aIlic Sea and
lhe aIkans. Sliong oljeclions ly IoIand, lhe aIlic
197
slales, and Noidic counliies lo lhal aIleinalive have
onIy seived lo ieinfoice lhe feeIing of vuIneialiIily.
3. As Iong as nucIeai veapons and lhe ieseaich and
indusliiaI infiasliucluie suppoiling lhen conlinue lo
exisl, poIilicaI and niIilaiy pIanning foi lheii use nusl
lake pIace. IIanning foi nucIeai use invoIves deveIop3
nenl of scenaiio-specihc nissions lhal pil nucIeai as3
sels againsl ieaI oi peiceived lhieals. These nissions
*+/%&,# 1/+806 +0.&/-06#( 1/+ 7/-.&-2#, 80&-.#-0-7#
of nucIeai capaliIilies, foi disliilulion of laigels, foi
posluie pIanning, as veII as foi ieseaich and deveI3
opnenl. The undeiIying assunplion of lhis lype of
pIanning is lhe leIief lhal ceilain lhieals aie difhcuIl
oi even inpossilIe lo counlei vilh olhei, non-nucIeai
assels oi lhal non-nucIeai assels aie Iess ieIialIe oi ef3
feclive.
Al lhe cenlei of nucIeai pIanning in lodays Rus3
sia is concein aloul U.S. and NATO convenlionaI su3
peiioiily. AIlhough a Iaige-scaIe vai vilh Russia is
videIy iegaided as inpiolalIe, lhe lhieal of supeiioi
convenlionaI foice couId, accoiding lo lhe pievaIenl
Iogic, le used lo exliacl poIilicaI oi econonic conces3
sions. A Iong seiies of Iiniled vais (lhe CuIf Wai of
1991, lhe use of foice in osnia, lhe vai in Kosovo, and
lhe 2OO3 vai in Iiaq) have denonslialed, in lhe viev
of Russian poIicynakeis and eIile, lhal (1) Aneiican
convenlionaI povei vaslIy suipasses anylhing lhal
Russia has oi nighl hope lo have in lhe foieseealIe fu3
luie, lolh in lechnoIogicaI IeveI and in sheei nunleis,
and (2) lhal lhe Uniled Slales is pione lo use lhal foice
vilh fev second lhoughls. The conlinuing veakness
of Russian convenlionaI foices vis-a-vis U.S. and con3
lined NATO povei as veII as lhe cIose pioxinily of
NATO foices lo Russian leiiiloiy (naking Iiniled use
of foice lolh noie feasilIe and noie effeclive) have
198
Ied Russian niIilaiy pIanneis lo ieIy on nucIeai veap3
/-( 1/+ ."# *2+*/(#( /1 ,#3#(7060.&/-<."# ."+#0. /1 0
Iiniled nucIeai sliike in iesponse lo a convenlionaI al3
lack lhal cannol le iepeIIed ly convenlionaI foices is
supposed lo delei lhe allack in lhe hisl pIace.
> +#60.&%#65 +#7#-. -#' 7/-7#+- &( ,#*6/58#-. /1
U.S. nissiIe defense, vhich evenluaIIy couId, in lheo3
iy, inleicepl a Russian nucIeai second sliike and lhus
undeinine lolh lhe exislenliaI deleiience capaliIily
and lhe de-escaIalion nission. DepIoynenl of nissiIe
defense Ieads Russian niIilaiy pIanneis lo suspecl
lhal lhe Uniled Slales inlends lo nake lhe voiId safe
1/+ 7/-%#-.&/-06 '0+ 0-, /-65 (#+%#( ./ #-"0-7# ."#
peiceived vaIue of nucIeai veapons foi Russia.
IinaIIy, lheie is lhe eneiging issue of China, vhich
Russians iaieIy discuss in lhe open. WhiIe lhe lvo
counliies aie cIose pailneis oi a lioad iange of issues,
have soIved oulslanding piolIens (loidei issues in
pailicuIai), and lheii econonic ieIalionship conlin3
ues lo deveIop, nany in Russia aie conceined lhal
lhe pailneiship nighl nol suivive conlinued giovlh
of Chinas econonic, poIilicaI, and niIilaiy povei.
NucIeai veapons aie iegaided as jusl-in-case pio3
leclion againsl lhe iisk lhal China lecones a foe oi al
Ieasl allenpls lo liansfoin Russia inlo a suloidinale
povei.
LvoIulion of Russian vievs on lhe ioIe of nucIeai
veapons can le liaced lhiough MiIilaiy Docliines ad3
opled in lhe Iasl 17 yeais. MiIilaiy Docliine is a piinai3
iIy poIilicaI docunenl lhal dehnes lhe lioad conlouis
/1 ,#1#-(# */6&75 0-, /2.6&-#( /1 8&6&.0+5 */(.2+#( 0(
veII as piovides a Iink lelveen oveiaII nalionaI secu3
iily poIicy and, noie naiiovIy, defense poIicy. The
lein docliine is sonevhal nisIeading, lecause ils
neaning in Russian and LngIish aie nol lhe sane. Il
199
shouId le noie piopeiIy liansIaled as slialegy oi
guidance. This caveal shouId le kepl in nind dui3
ing any discussion of Russian defense poIicy.
KPPSUPPD
The end of lhe CoId Wai and lhe dininished ieIe3
vance of slialegic nucIeai deleiience veie ieecled in
lhe hisl MiIilaiy Docliine appioved ly oiis YeIlsin
in Novenlei 1993 (Main Iiovisions of lhe MiIilaiy
Docliine
7
), vhich assigned nucIeai veapons onIy lo
lhal oId nission and lhus codihed lheii ieIaliveIy
Iov langiliIily in Russias nalionaI secuiily poIicy. The
/-65 &--/%0.&/- /1 ."0. ,/728#-. '0( 0 *+/%&(&/- ."0.
aIIoved foi hisl use of nucIeai veapons (unliI lhen,
lhe ofhciaI Soviel poIicy, vhich vas sel in lhe 197Os
and conhined in 1982, aIIoved foi lhe use of nucIeai
veapons onIy in iesponse lo a nucIeai allack). WhiIe
lhis nev pIank alliacled cIose allenlion lolh in Russia
and in lhe Wesl, of giealei ieIevance vas lhe facl lhal
nucIeai use vas onIy concepluaIized in iesponse lo a
Iaige-scaIe allack lhal lhiealened lhe soveieignly and
lhe veiy suivivaI of lhe counliy, i.e., a nission vhose
piolaliIily vas ofhciaIIy assessed as Iov.
The ofhciaI viev of nucIeai veapons ienained un3
changed despile a uiiy of pioposaIs in 1996-97 lo in3
7+#0(# +#6&0-7# /- -276#0+ '#0*/-( &- +#(*/-(# ./ ."#
hisl phase of NATO enIaigenenl. The 1997 NalionaI
Secuiily Concepl ielained lhe pIank ieseiving lhe
iighl lo use aII foices and neans al ils disposaI, in3
cIuding nucIeai veapons, in case an ained aggiession
lhal cieales a lhieal lo lhe veiy exislence of lhe Rus3
sian Iedeialion as an independenl soveieign slale.
8

This vas effecliveIy a ''jusl-in-case nission againsl a
conicl lhal vas viiluaIIy iuIed oul.
2OO
In a ieviev of an unpulIished eaiIy diafl of a
nev MiIilaiy Docliine pioduced in 1997, lvo ofhceis
of lhe CeneiaI Slaff noled lhal sone 'speciaIisls
. . . allenpled lo inlioduce inlo lhe docunenls Ian3
guage lhal vouId loughen nucIeai poIicy, lul said
lhal lhese pioposaIs veie iejecled ly lhe inleiagency
voiking gioup chaiged vilh diafling lhe docunenl.
Il vas decided, lhey said, lo ielain lhe 1993 Ianguage,
vhich passed lhe lesl of line and vas suppoiled ly
lhe Russian Minisliy of Ioieign Affaiis.
9
Al lhal line, lhe Russian goveinnenl adopled a
seiies of docunenls lhal conhined eaiIiei poIicy and
Iaid oul deveIopnenl and depIoynenl pIans lased on
."# 0((28*.&/- ."0. ."# (/6# 8&((&/- /1 -276#0+ '#0*3
ons vas deleiience of a Iaige-scaIe allack. In Iine vilh
lhis poIicy, seveiaI deciees signed ly oiis YeIlsin in
1997 and 1998
1O
foiesav deep ieduclions of lhe Rus3
sian nucIeai aisenaI.
=L8 2;78 ;@ !=24=8O-6 ?8=8228568 -5
23!!-45 !8632-=R !=24=8OR
The nission of slialegic deleiience has ienained
IaigeIy unchanged fion Soviel lines lo lhe piesenl
day. Il is lased on lhe liadilionaI nolion of nuluaI
vuIneialiIily~deleiience lhiough aliIily lo inicl
unacceplalIe danage in a iesponse sliike.
!"# 80&- 8/,# /1 /*#+0.&/- "0( 06(/ +#80&-#, ."#
sane~sliike on vaining. Il shouId le noled lhal lhis
node has aIvays leen a foiced choice, and since al
Ieasl lhe Iale 196Os, lhe Soviel Union liied lo deveIop
assuied second-sliike capaliIily ly enhancing sui3
vivaliIily of veapons syslens. NeveilheIess, effoils
./ ,#%#6/* +#6#%0-. (5(.#8( (277##,#, /-65 &- ."#
198Os~noliIe ICMs (SS-25 TopoI and SS-24) as veII
2O1
as ieduced-noise sulnaiines. In posl-Soviel Russia
ieIiance on sliike on vaining even enhanced due lo a
nunlei of ieasons: (1) lhe deep econonic ciisis, vhich
foiced diaslic ieduclion of funding, (2) lhe lieakup of
lhe Soviel Union, vhich Iefl nany ieIaliveIy nodein
veapons oulside Russia, ieduced depIoynenl oplions,
and undeinined lhe pioduclion capaliIily Iiniling
aliIily lo deveIop and pioduce veapons syslens, and
(3) lhe deleiioialion of eaiIy vaining capaliIily due lo
lhe Ioss of seveiaI key iadais.
TiadilionaI slialegic deleiience is iegaided as a
skeIelon of inleinalionaI secuiily~lhe undeiIying
sliucluie lhal keeps lhe syslen slalIe. Speaking al
lhe London Inslilule of InleinalionaI and Slialegic
Sludies, Seigey Ivanov (al lhal line sliII Minislei of
Defense) caIIed slialegic deleiience lhe foundalion of
gIolaI slaliIily.
11
SiniIai vievs have leen expiessed
ly aInosl eveiy ofhciaI and unofhciaI souice in Rus3
sia.
Slialegic deleiience is piinaiiIy ained al lhe Unil3
ed Slales and, lo a snaIIei exlenl, ils aIIies. China is
piesenl in lhe lackgiound~Russian ofhciaIs jusl do
nol speak aloul lhe need lo delei China, and ieIalive3
Iy fev nongoveinnenlaI expeils aie piepaied lo dis3
cuss lhis nission. The ieasons vhy lhe Uniled Slales
ienains lhe focus aie:
- The Uniled Slales has denonslialed lhe viII3
ingness lo use foice, incIuding foi hunanilai3
ian inleivenlions.
- A U.S. decision lo use foice cannol le oveiiuIed
ly lhe UN oi ils aIIies.
- Il is connonIy leIieved lhal a Iaige-scaIe al3
lack (iegionaI conicl) can onIy le successfuI if
lhe Uniled Slales Ieads il.
2O2
- Il is assuned lhal if Russia can delei lhe Uniled
Slales, il can delei any olhei slale oi a coaIilion
of slales. The Uniled Slales, in effecl, seives as
a lenchnaik.
- IinaIIy, nany anong lhe Russian eIile, and
especiaIIy anong lhe niIilaiy, sliII viev lhe
Uniled Slales vilh unease and suspicion. OnIy
a fev yeais ago, one couId heai laIk aloul lhe
inlenl of undiscIosed counliies (sone diieclIy
nenlioned lhe Uniled Slales) lo paililion Rus3
sia.
One eIenenl of slialegic deleiience concepluaI3
izalion lhal has expeiienced consideialIe change in
lhe posl-Soviel peiiod is lhe ciileiion, hov nuch
is enough, lo delei lhe polenliaI adveisaiy. Duiing
lhe Soviel peiiod (incIuding Iale 198Os), lhe goaI vas
assuied deIiveiy of 5OO vaiheads lo U.S. leiiiloiy,
in lhe 199Os, lhe hguie appaienlIy decieased lo 15O-
2OO, iecenlIy one can heai an even Iovei hguie~as3
suied deIiveiy of aloul 5O vaiheads. The ieduclion
/1 ."&( 0663&8*/+.0-. 7+&.#+&/- &( 7/-(&(.#-. '&." ."#
acknovIedgnenl in lhe 1993 and sulsequenl MiIilaiy
Docliines of veiy Iov piolaliIily of a gIolaI vai, and
ieecls a fundanenlaI change in lhe inleinalionaI
syslen aflei lhe end of lhe CoId Wai. In addilion, lhe
Iovei ciileiion ieduces piessuie foi ciealing an as3
suied second-sliike capaliIily as veII as iequiienenls
foi nucIeai posluie and nodeinizalion piogians. a3
sicaIIy, il neans lhal Russia can le ieasonalIy ieIaxed
vilh iegaid lo lhe fuluie of ils slialegic aisenaI and
can affoid Iiniling spending and iesouices necessaiy
lo nainlain and nodeinize ils slialegic foice.
Adheience lo liadilionaI vievs on slialegic de3
leiience diclales Russias negalive oi, al Ieasl, veiy
2O3
caulious allilude lovaid nissiIe defense. Al ils coie,
Russian slialegy sliII iesls on lhe lheoiens of lhe Iale
196O-eaiIy 197Os enlodied in lhe Anli-aIIislic MissiIe
(AM) Tiealy: (1) offensive and defensive veapons
aie inexliicalIy Iinked, (2) iolusl defense can vaslIy
conpIicale lhe caIcuIalion of slialegic slaliIily (i.e., il
lecones difhcuIl lo piedicl hov nany vaiheads viII
ieach lhe adveisaiy in a iesponse sliike), and (3) un3
7/-.+/66#, 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# ,#%#6/*8#-.( 70- &++#*0+03
lIy upsel slialegic slaliIily and viII iesuIl in an ains
iace. Russias piefeiied iesponse has liadilionaIIy
leen in lhe aiea of offensive veapons, vhich aie noie
cosl-effeclive, aIlhough in lhe 198Os, lhe Soviel Union
acliveIy expIoied slialegic nissiIe defense oplions,
i.e., sinuIlaneousIy puisued lolh synneliic and
asynneliic iesponse. Ioi Russia, synneliic iesponse
(deveIopnenl of ils ovn advance slialegic nissiIe de3
fense syslen) has leen oul of lhe ieach foi hnanciaI
and lechnoIogicaI ieasons. As a iesuIl, il has puisued
lolh poIilicaI oplions (lhiough ains conlioI negolia3
lions, noliIizalion of inleinalionaI connunily, cIose
coopeialion vilh China, elc.) and lhe defense penelia3
lion capaliIily of nev slialegic deIiveiy syslens.
IJJJUKJD
!"# 2000 Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc ialhei iadicaIIy changed
lhe ioIe of nucIeai veapons in Russias nalionaI se3
cuiily slialegy ly inlioducing a nev nission~lhal of
6&8&.#, -276#0+ 2(# &- +#(*/-(# ./ 0 6&8&.#, 7/-%#-3
lionaI allack, i.e., one lhal did nol lhiealen lhe suiviv3
aI and soveieignly of Russia, lul sliII vas leyond lhe
capaliIily of Russian convenlionaI foices. Accoiding
lo lhe nev docunenl, in addilion lo lhe use of nu3
cIeai veapons oi olhei veapons of nass desliuclion
2O4
againsl Russia oi ils aIIies, nucIeai veapons couId aIso
le used in iesponse lo Iaige-scaIe aggiession invoIv3
ing convenlionaI veapons in silualions lhal aie ciili3
caI foi lhe nalionaI secuiily of lhe Russian Iedeialion
and ils aIIies.
12
The nev docunenl divided aII possilIe ained
conicls inlo foui calegoiies:
1. ained conicl~a piedoninanlIy doneslic
conicl, in vhich insuigenls have oulside suppoil
(effecliveIy, lhe vai in Chechnya, vhose iesunplion
vas aIieady olvious ly lhe line of lhe adoplion of lhe
nev Docliine in lhe spiing of 2OOO),
2. Iiniled vai~a vai vilh one foieign slales
vilh Iiniled goaIs (a iecenl exanpIe is lhe vai vilh
Ceoigia in 2OO8),
3. iegionaI vai~a vai vilh a poveifuI slale oi
a coaIilion, vhich Russian foices cannol vin oi leini3
nale on favoialIe condilions. Russian niIilaiy pulIi3
calions of lhe peiiod leIieved lhal iegionaI vai couId
le a diiecl iesuIl of escaIalion of ained conicl (foi
#)08*6#9 0( 0 +#(26. /1 /2.(&,# &-.#+1#+#-7# &-./ ."#
vai in Chechnya
13
), and,
4. gIolaI vai~a vai againsl a coaIilion of pov3
eifuI slales in vhich soveieignly and veiy suivivaI of
Russia aie al slake.
Thal is, conpaied lo lhe 1993-97 docunenls, vhich
assigned nucIeai veapons onIy lo lhe fouilh lype of
conicls, lhe 2OOO docunenl expanded nucIeai nis3
sions lo lhe lhiid lype. This vas a diiecl iesuIl of lhe
vai in Kosovo, vhose inpacl on Russian nalionaI se3
cuiily of lhe peiiod is difhcuIl lo oveieslinale. Iaia3
doxicaIIy, unliI 1999 Moscov seened lo leIieve lhal
lhe iighl of velo in lhe UNSC nade il innune lo lhe
use of foice. Kosovo, as veII as lhe 2OO3 vai in Iiaq a
2O5
fev yeais Ialei, denonslialed lhal lhe Uniled Slales
and NATO couId use foice vilhoul UNSC aulhoiiza3
lion. Al lhe sane line, since U.S. and NATO slakes in
a Kosovo-size conicl vilh Russia veie expecled lo
le ieIaliveIy Iov (al Ieasl, nol cenliaI lo U.S. inleiesls),
lhieal of even Iiniled nucIeai use vas expecled lo le3
cone a sufhcienlIy sliong deleiience.
!"# ,#7&(&/- ./ #-"0-7# +#6&0-7# /- -276#0+ '#0*3
/-( &- 0 ,#*0+.2+# 1+/8 066 ,/728#-.( 0,/*.#, &- ."#
199Os vas appaienlIy nade vhiIe lhe vai in Kosovo
vas sliII undeivay~al a neeling of lhe Russian Ied3
eialion Secuiily CounciI in ApiiI 1999, lhe hisl chaiied
ly VIadinii Iulin in lhe capacily of lhe counciIs sec3
ielaiy.
14
The key lenels of lhe nev appioach veie lesl3
ed in May 1999 duiing Iaige-scaIe naneuveis caIIed
''Wesl-99. The nev ioIe of nucIeai veapons vas foi3
naIized in lhe }anuaiy 2OOO Na|icna| Sccuri|q Ccnccp|
and lhe ApiiI 2OOO Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc.
15
The While Ia3
pei, a docunenl adopled in lhe faII of 2OO3,
16
0,,#,
lhe hnaI louches.
WhiIe lhe olvious, and peihaps iniliaIIy, lhe onIy
laigels of lhe nev nission veie lhe Uniled Slales and
NATO, sulsequenlIy Russian niIilaiy Ieadeis un3
veiIed lhal lhe sane piovisions appIied aIso lo ''de3
veIoping counliies, sone of vhich have Iaige, veII-
ained niIilaiies.
17
!"&( +#*+#(#-.#, 0 ."&-65 %#&6#,
iefeience lo China, peihaps aIso lo sone olhei coun3
liies (foi exanpIe, Iian).
The nev nission, vhich cane lo le knovn as de-
escaIalion of convenlionaI conicls, is siniIai lo NA3
TOs exilIe deleiience of lhe 196Os. A possilIe sce3
naiio vas cIeaiIy ieecled in lhe Wesl-99 exeicises:
a Iaige-scaIe convenlionaI allack (Wesl-99 acluaIIy
sinuIaled an allack ly a NATO foice exaclIy lhe sane
as lhe one used in lhe vai in Kosovo), ieIaliveIy liief
2O6
iesislance ly Russian convenlionaI foices, lhen a Iin3
iled nucIeai sliike, aflei vhich lhe opponenl vas ex3
pecled lo lack dovn lecause ils slakes veie nol voi3
lhy of iesuIling desliuclion and Iosses.
CenliaI lo lhe concepl of de-escaIalion vas lhe no3
lion of caIilialed danage (zadannqi usncncro), dehned
in lhe 2OO3 lni|c Papcr as ''danage, vhich is suljec3
liveIy unacceplalIe lo lhe eneny and vhich exceeds
lhe lenehls lhe aggiessoi expecls lo gain as a iesuIl of
lhe use of niIilaiy foice.
18
This nolion is noie exilIe
lhan lhe noie connon nolion of unacceplalIe dan3
age and, in addilion lo pionising lo deny lenehls
fion aggiession, aIso conveys a nessage lhal danage
vouId le connensuiale lo lhe IeveI of conicl ialhei
lhan devaslaling. CaIilialed danage gave lhe oppo3
nenl a choice lo lack dovn vilhoul escaIalion lo lhe
slialegic IeveI.
Lven Iiniled sliikes veie supposed lo ieach fai-
avay laigels: accoiding lo lhe 2OO3 lni|c Papcr9 &- 066
vais in lhe 199Os and eaiIy 2OOOs (aIkans, Kosovo,
Afghanislan, and Iiaq) Aneiican vicloiy vas ensuied
ly aliIily lo invoIve oul-of-lhealei assels. Conse3
quenlIy, counleislialegy, vhelhei nucIeai oi conven3
lionaI, had lo enphasize lhe aliIily lo defeal laigels al
Iaige dislances.
AccoidingIy, lhe lni|c Papcr posluIaled lhe ul3
nosl necessily of having lhe capaliIily lo sliike niIi3
laiy assels of lhe eneny (Iong-iange high-piecision
veapons, Iong-iange Aii Ioice) oulside lhe innedi3
ale aiea of conicl. To achieve lhis, |vej need lolh oui
ovn Iong-iange high-piecision sliike capaliIily and
olhei assels lhal enalIe |usj lo liansfei hosliIilies di3
ieclIy lo eneny leiiiloiy.
19
Taigels foi Iiniled nucIeai use vilh caIilialed
danage couId le gIeaned fion a seiies of Iaige-scaIe
2O7
exeicises since 1999. AII of lhen veie niIilaiy laigels
invoIved in a polenliaI allack againsl Russia and lhe
nunlei of vaiheads invoIved in sinuIaled sliikes
vas snaII (fevei lhan 1O):
- Aiilases as veII as connand, connunica3
lions, and suppoil faciIilies in Luiopean NATO
counliies and in al Ieasl one case in }apan. Nev
nenleis of NATO aie cIeaiIy consideied hisl
candidales foi lasing counliies foi Iaunching
an allack againsl Russia,
- Unknovn laigels in lhe conlinenlaI Uniled
Slales (nosl IikeIy lases fion vhich -52s and
-2s vouId y nissions againsl Russia),
- Aiiciafl caiiiei gioups in lhe Iacihc Ocean and
lhe aIlic Sea. SiniIai opeialions veie sinuIal3
ed al Ieasl one in lhe Indian Ocean and Medi3
leiianean, and,
- U.S. lases on Diego Caicia and Cuan.
An inlegiaI pail of naking suie lhal lhieal of Iin3
iled nucIeai sliike is ciedilIe is denonslialed aliIily
lo escaIale lo lhe slialegic IeveI (lhe IeveI of Iaige-scaIe
nucIeai exchange).
2O
!"&( 7/-,&.&/- -#7#((&.0.#, ."#
nainlenance of ciedilIe slialegic nucIeai deleiience
capaliIily, giving addilionaI pioninence lo lhe liadi3
lionaI nission and slialegic veapons nodeinizalion
piogians.
The decision liee undeiIying lhe de-escaIalion sce3
naiio is picluied in Iiguie 5-1. The 2OO3 lni|c Papcr 06(/
caulioned lhal nucIeai deleiience of iegionaI conicls
iequiies capalIe nodein convenlionaI foices: onIy in
."0. 70(# '&66 ."# ."+#0. /1 -276#0+ 2(# &- +#(*/-(# ./
an allack le ciedilIe.
21
!"&( *+&-7&*6# 76/(#65 8&++/+(
one of lhe seninaI docunenls in U.S. nucIeai poIicy
fion lhe 195Os, NSC-68. This is onIy IogicaI: ieIiance
2O8
on nucIeai veapons aIone is sinpIy nol suslainalIe le3
cause lhieal of nucIeai use is nol sufhcienlIy ciedilIe
excepl in a ieIaliveIy naiiov iange of ciicunslances.
@'&*#% ]UKD ?%(','0. =#%%D
Il shouId le noled, hovevei, lhal Russias 2OOO
Na|icna| Sccuri|q Ccnccp| iegaided ieIiance on Iiniled
nucIeai use as a lenpoiaiy hx unliI Russia luiIds up
ils convenlionaI capaliIily, especiaIIy ils piecision-
guided veapons. A noie nodein convenlionaI ca3
paliIily logelhei vilh nodein ieconnaissance and
laigeling assels vas supposed lo enalIe Russia lo
successfuIIy delei, oi, if deleiience faiIs, hghl iegionaI
conicls. Thus, al Ieasl in lheoiy, lhe Iiniled-use nis3
sions shouId evenluaIIy fade avay. Thal lhinking ie3
nains vaIid loday: in 2OO9, lhen-Connandei of lhe
Slialegic Rockel Ioices (SRI) NikoIai SoIovlsov said
."0. +#6&0-7# /- -276#0+ '#0*/-( &- ."# -#0+ 12.2+# &(
inlended lo luy line vhiIe Russia conducls niIilaiy
iefoin and upgiades ils convenlionaI capaliIily.
22
2O9
IJKJ 45? -5=; =L8 @3=328
The nev, lhiid Russian MiIilaiy Docliine, vhich
2("#+#, &- 5#. 0-/."#+ .2+- &- ."# +/6# /1 -276#0+
veapons, vas ieveaIed in Ieliuaiy 2O1O.
23
Woik on
lhal docunenl vas Iaunched ly a speciaI confeience
convened al lhe Russian Acadeny of MiIilaiy Scienc3
es in }anuaiy 2OO7. Speakeis al lhal neeling, incIuding
lhen-Chief of CeneiaI Slaff Yuii aIuyevskii, agieed
."0. -276#0+ '#0*/-( '/26, (.&66 *605 0 7#-.+06 +/6# &-
Russias secuiily, lul lhe oveiaII lone suggesled lhal
lhe nucIeai conponenl of lhe 2OOO Docliine vouId
ienain unchanged, allenlion focused inslead on lhe
upconing iefoins and nodeinizalion of geneiaI-pui3
pose foices.
24
Quile unexpecledIy, hovevei, lhe nucIeai seclion
of lhe diafl lecane a conlesled issue in lhe nonlhs
pieceding ils ieIease and vas peihaps one of lhe iea3
sons foi nuIlipIe deIays (il vas iniliaIIy scheduIed lo
le ieIeased in lhe faII of 2OO9). In an inleiviev in Oc3
lolei 2OO9, Secielaiy of lhe Secuiily CounciI NikoIai
Ialiushev indicaled lhal lhe fuluie docunenl nighl
assign nucIeai veapons lo yel one noie lype of vai~
IocaI conicls.
25
!"&( '/26, "0%# +#*+#(#-.#, 0
nassive expansion of lhe ioIe of nucIeai veapons:
vheieas lhe 1993 Docliine assigned lhen lo gIolaI
vais, and lhe 2OOO one added iegionaI vais, lhe
fuilhei expansion desciiled ly Ialiushev vouId have
assigned lhen lo conicls siniIai lo lhe 2OO8 vai vilh
Ceoigia.
In lhe end, hovevei, lhe liend sel ly lhe nev
Docliine vas opposile lo vhal Ialiushev desciiled.
Inslead of fuilhei expanding lhe ioIe of nucIeai veap3
ons, il sonevhal ieduced il ly lighlening condilions
21O
undei vhich lhese veapons couId le used. Specih3
caIIy, vheieas lhe 2OOO Docliine foiesav lhe iesoil3
ing lo nucIeai veapons in silualions ciilicaI foi |lhej
nalionaI secuiily of Russia, lhe 2O1O veision aIIovs
foi lheii use in silualions vhen lhe veiy exislence of
|Russiaj is undei lhieal.
26
Al Ieasl in lhis iegaid, lhe
nev Docliine ieluined lo lhe piincipIes of lhe 1993
and 1997 slialegies.
B."#+'&(#9 ."# -#' ,/728#-. (##8#, ./ 76/(#65
foIIov lhe Iine sel in 2OOO. The ioIe of nucIeai veap3
ons, accoiding lo lhe nev Docliine, is pievenlion of
nucIeai niIilaiy conicl oi any olhei niIilaiy conicl.
!"#5 0+# iegaided as an inpoilanl facloi in lhe pieven3
lion of nucIeai conicls and niIilaiy conicls lhal use
convenlionaI assels (Iaige-scaIe and iegionaI vais).
!"# -#' ,/728#-. 06(/ 76#0+65 &-,&70.#( ."0. 0 7/-3
venlionaI iegionaI vai couId escaIale lo lhe nucIeai
IeveI. In a sIighl change fion 2OOO, lhe Iallei piovision
is foinuIaled in lioadei leins~lhis is nov nol onIy
seen as a neans of deleiiing oi dissuading slales lhal
nighl allack Russia vilh convenlionaI ained foices,
lul aIso an expiession of concein lhal siniIai escaIa3
lion nighl lake pIace eIsevheie.
27
!"0. &(9 ."0. ."# 8&(3
sion of de-escaIalion ienains on lhe looks. The nev
Docliine nandales lhe nainlenance of nucIeai capa3
liIily al lhe IeveI of sufhciency, vhich neans aliI3
ily lo inicl caIilialed danage, sane as lhe pievious
guidance. An inleiesling fealuie of lhe 2O1O Docliine
&( ."# #8*"0(&( /- s|ra|cgic deleiience capaliIily. The
choice of leins seens lo indicale lhal Russia does nol
assign a visilIe ioIe lo sulslialegic (oi laclicaI) nucIeai
veapons.
OveiaII, lhe 2O1O Docliine devoles Iess allenlion
./ ."# -276#0+ 7/8*/-#-. /1 >+8#, A/+7#( ."0- ."#
pievious one. Al lhe nosl supeihciaI IeveI, lheie aie
211
fevei paiagiaphs aloul lhe use of nucIeai veapons
and nucIeai posluie lhan in lhe 2OOO docunenl. The
docliine pIaces consideialIy noie enphasis on con3
venlionaI foices and in pailicuIai on high-piecision
0((#.(9 7/882-&70.&/-(9 7/880-,9 0-, 7/-.+/6 (5(3
lens, and olhei eIenenls in vhich Russia has leen
liadilionaIIy lehind olhei najoi niIilaiy poveis.
OveiaII, lhe change in lhe ioIe of nucIeai veap3
ons appeais lo le posilive, lul Iiniled: lhe nissions
ienained lhe sane as lefoie, aIleil lhe ciileiion foi
nucIeai use vas sonevhal lighlened. The diieclion of
lhe liend is siniIai lo lhal in lhe Uniled Slales undei
lhe nev adninislialion, lul lhe degiee of change is
nolicealIy snaIIei. Nolvilhslanding lhe facl lhal lhe
nev slialegy viII ienain in foice foi al Ieasl seveiaI
yeais, one can haidIy expecl a signihcanl dovngiad3
ing of lhe slalus of nucIeai veapons in lhe foieseealIe
fuluie. They conlinue lo enjoy eIile and pulIic sup3
poil as a synloI of Russian povei and independence
and lhus any goveinnenl lhal nighl considei fuilhei
dovngiading of lhal conponenl of Russian ained
foices is IikeIy lo encounlei sliff iesislance. Iuilhei3
noie, nodeinizalion of Russian convenlionaI foices
pioceeds al a veiy sIov pace. In lhe foieseealIe fuluie,
concein aloul convenlionaI foices of lhe Uniled Slales
and NATO and, incieasingIy, of China viII ienain
high, necessilaling conlinued ieIiance on nucIeai ca3
paliIily.
=L8 =46=-647 5367842 984:;5!
:424?;Z
TaclicaI (non-slialegic) nucIeai veapons (TNW)
enjoy a speciaI and highIy conlioveisiaI pIace in
Russias nucIeai poIicy. They gained visiliIily in lhe
212
nid-199Os duiing delales aloul possilIe iesponse lo
NATOs hisl iound of enIaigenenl. They aie sliII of3
len concepluaIized as a counleiveighl lo NATO con3
venlionaI supeiioiily, lul lhis viev piinaiiIy iesides
vilh conseivalive nongoveinnenlaI expeils vhiIe lhe
goveinnenl and (vilh one exceplion noled leIov)
unifoined niIilaiy ienains siIenl aloul possilIe nis3
sions foi lhese assels. Inslead, aII poIilicaI-niIilaiy
guidance docunenls issues in lhe Iasl 15 yeais have
nol nenlioned lhen. Moieovei, lhe 2OO3 lni|c Papcr
iefeienced alove specihcaIIy insisled lhal in case of
Iaige-scaIe (iegionaI oi gIolaI) vai Russia needed
Iong-iange capaliIily lo sliike oul-of-lhealei assels of
lhe adveisaiy. Thus TNW appaienlIy do nol have a
nission lo speak of.
The onIy exceplion lo lhal geneiaI iuIe is lhe Rus3
sian Navy. Russian navaI connandeis adnil lhal
lhey sinpIy cannol confionl lhe U.S. Navy~in case of
a diiecl cIash lelveen Russia and lhe Uniled Slales~
vilhoul ieIiance on nonslialegic nucIeai assels. Ac3
coidingIy, cievs of suiface ships and sulnaiines have
iepoiledIy liained lo nale vaiheads lo sulnaiine
Iaunched ciuise nissiIes (SLCMs) and Iaunch lhen.
28

In facl, Vice-AdniiaI OIeg uilsev, depuly chief of
lhe Navys Main Slaff, decIaied iecenlIy lhal lhe ioIe
of laclicaI nucIeai veapons on allack nucIeai sulna3
iines vouId inciease. The iange of laclicaI nucIeai
veapons is gioving, as is lheii accuiacy. They do nol
need lo deIivei high-yieId vaiheads, inslead il is pos3
silIe lo nake a liansilion lo Iov-yieId nucIeai vai3
heads lhal couId le inslaIIed on lhe exisling lypes of
ciuise nissiIes, he asseiled.
29
IaiadoxicaIIy, nucIeai
vaiheads foi shoil-iange navaI syslens aie supposed
lo le in lhe slalus of nondepIoyed undei lhe piesiden3
liaI nucIeai inilialives (INIs), unIike lhose foi lhe Aii
213
A/+7#9 '"/(# 6#0,#+( +0+#65 &1 #%#+ 8#-.&/- .07.&706
nucIeai veapons.
Indicalive of lhe allilude lovaid lhe possilIe ioIe
of TNW vas lhe iejeclion ly lhe Russian goveinnenl
and lhe niIilaiy of pioposaIs lo depIoy shoil-iange
nucIeai-capalIe assels in iesponse lo lhe U.S.-pIanned
nissiIe defense assels in IoIand in 2OO8~al lhe line
vhen Ceoige W. ush pIans veie iegaided as a seii3
ous and innediale lhieal lo Russia. The CeneiaI Slaff
vas quick al disnissing iunois (appaienlIy, oiigi3
naling in Lilhuania) lhal Russia vouId equip suiface
ships and sulnaiines of lhe aIlic IIeel vilh laclicaI
nucIeai veapons.
3O
SiniIaiIy, a Seplenlei 2OO8 high-
IeveI neeling in KaIiningiad olIasl, invoIving iepie3
senlalives fion lhe Minisliies of Defense and Ioieign
Affaiis al lhe IeveI of depuly ninislei, CeneiaI Slaff,
Adninislialion of lhe Iiesidenl, as veII as secuiily
(#+%&7#(9 +#4#7.#, ."# *+/*/(06 ./ ,#*6/5 -276#0+ '#0*3
ons in lhe excIave.
31
Chaiinan of lhe Duna Defense
Connillee ieliied CeneiaI Vikloi Zavaizin expIained
lhal piefeience vas given inslead lo high-piecision
convenlionaI assels.
32
IioposaIs aloul depIoynenl of
laclicaI nucIeai veapons in eIaius veie siniIaiIy nol
laken lo heail. Russian anlassadoi lo Minsk AIek3
sandi Suiikov announced lhal Russia vouId nol ie3
luin nucIeai veapons lo eIaius lul vouId considei
depIoynenl of laclicaI convenlionaI Iskandei nissiIes
and shoil-iange aiiciafl vilh piecision-guided veap3
ons.
33

Shoil-iange veapons aie aIso oflen said lo have
anolhei ioIe~lhal of deleiiing Chinese convenlionaI
foices.
34
The Iogic is siniIai lo lhe connon leIiefs
aloul lhe ioIe of TNW vis-a-vis NATO: if lhe oppo3
nenl has supeiioi convenlionaI foices, Russian needs
lo ieIy on nucIeai veapons. The Weslein and lhe Lasl3
214
ein lhealeis diffei ly lhe naluie of chaIIenge~lechno3
IogicaI in lhe Wesl and nuneiicaI in lhe Lasl.
This Iogic appeais queslionalIe, hovevei. The
Russian-Chinese loidei is piinaiiIy a Iand loidei,
lul, if pulIic slalenenls of Russian ofhciaIs aie lo le
leIieved, Russia no Iongei has Iand-lased shoil-iange
nucIeai veapons. AIso, lheie aie fev vaIualIe laigels
on lhe Chinese side of lhe loidei and, if TNW veie
used lo iepeI a hypolhelicaI Chinese offensive, nucIe3
ai veapons vouId le used on lhe Russian side of lhal
loidei in denseIy popuIaled and econonicaIIy deveI3
oped aieas. Indeed, conhdenliaI inleivievs vilh high-
IeveI Russian niIilaiy indicale lhal nucIeai veapons
assigned lo deleiience of China aie slialegic and aii-
Iaunched inleinediale-iange, i.e., veapons capalIe
of ieaching poIilicaI, niIilaiy, and econonic laigels
deep inside China. Thal is, lhe Iogic heie is siniIai lo
lhe one used in lhe MiIilaiy Docliine foi deleiience of
lhe Uniled Slales and NATO: lhe enphasis is on Iong-
iange assels.
Thus, IogicaIIy speaking, Russia couId, vilhoul
changing ils piesenl-day nucIeai slialegy, ieduce lhe
enliie shoil-iange calegoiy of nucIeai veapons. Yel,
il iefuses lo do lhal. Inslead, Moscov consislenlIy,
slulloinIy, and veiy foicefuIIy iesisls allenpls of lhe
Uniled Slales and ils NATO aIIies lo Iaunch aInosl
any kind of ains conlioI neasuies vilh iegaid lo ils
TNW. Thus, up unliI nov U.S. and Russian TNW aie
sliII suljecl lo onIy one ains conlioI iegine~uni3
IaleiaI paiaIIeI slalenenls of Ceoige H.W. ush and
MikhaiI Coilachev nade in 1991 knovn as INIs (in
1992 oiis YeIlsin conhined Coilachevs slalenenl
in lhe nane of Russia). Il onIy ienains lo iegiel lhal
lhe Soviel pioposaI, nade in lhe faII of 1991 shoilIy
aflei INIs, lo Iaunch negolialions on a IegaIIy linding
215
and veiihalIe liealy on TNW vas al lhal line iejecled
ly Washinglon.
Moieovei, since 2OO4 Russia no Iongei iecognizes
INIs as even poIilicaIIy linding. The Iasl line Mos3
cov foinaIIy iepoiled on lhe inpIenenlalion of INIs
vas al lhe NIT IiepCon in ApiiI 2OO4, vhen lhe
Russian iepiesenlalive nenlioned lhal his counliy
had aInosl conpIeled inpIenenlalion of ils inilia3
lives excepl foi vaiheads assigned lo Ciound Ioic3
#(9 0-, ."0. ."# *07# /1 #6&8&-0.&/- '0( 7/-(.+0&-#,
ly lhe lechnoIogicaI capacily and avaiIalIe funding.
35

Six nonlhs Ialei, an ofhciaI iepiesenlalive of lhe Rus3
sian Ioieign Minisliy decIaied Russia vas nol lound
ly lhe INIs, vhich veie chaiacleiized as a goodviII
gesluie ialhei lhan an olIigalion.
36
Thal said, INIs have appaienlIy leen inpIenenl3
ed, even lhough Russia does nol pulIicIy iecognize
lhal. In a iepoil disliiluled al lhe 2OO5 NIT Reviev
Confeience, Russia decIaied lhal il had ieduced ils
TNW aisenaI lo one-fouilh of vhal il vas in 1991.
37

The foIIoving yeai, lhe Chief of lhe 12lh G|atncqc
Uprat|cniqc Minis|crs|tc Oocrcnq (CUMO, lhe Main
Diiecloiale of lhe Minisliy of Defense iesponsilIe foi
handIing nucIeai veapons), conhined lhal infoina3
.&/- 0-, #%#- 0((#+.#, ."0. +#,27.&/-( #)7##,#, ."#
oiiginaI pionise (he asseiled lhal lhe 1991 slalenenls
foiesav a 64 peicenl ieduclion vhiIe Russia had ie3
duced ils TNW aisenaI ly 75 peicenl).
38
Speaking
in 2OO7, lhe nev Chief of lhe 12lh CUMO, CeneiaI
VIadinii Veikhovlsev, conhined lhe 75 peicenl hg3
uie and added lhal lhe pionised eIininalion of TNW
vaiheads assigned lo Ciound Ioices had leen con3
pIeled.
39
The exacl nunlei of Russian TNW is unknovn le3
cause pailies lo lhe INIs aie nol iequiied lo exchange
216
il. Il is connonIy leIieved lhal Russia has aloul 2,OOO
vaiheads foi deIiveiy vehicIes lhal aie nol suljecl lo
START liealies~aloul doulIe vhal lhe Uniled Slales
is assuned lo have.
4O
ieaking dovn lhal unceilain
nunlei inlo calegoiies is even noie chaIIenging. Ac3
coiding lo lhe NaluiaI Resouices Defense CounciI
(NRDC), lhe Aii Ioice has 65O vaiheads, lhe Navy
7OO, and Aii Defense and MissiIe Defense (novadays
uniled in lhe Aeiospace Ioices) 7OO.
41
Russian non3
goveinnenlaI expeils use lhe sane hguies, lul lhe
nelhod of caIcuIalion used ly NRDC Ieaves nany
unceilainlies.
42
Il is safe lo assune lhal lhe oveiaII size of lhe
slockpiIe is going dovn. Russia conlinued lo disnan3
lIe vaiheads vilh expiied seivice Iife (vaiianly), and
onIy sone of lhose aie iefuilished. The iale of dis3
nanlIenenl and iefuilishnenl is Iiniled ly lhe avaiI3
alIe indusliiaI capacily. Theie is no saying al vhal
poinl lhe decIine viII slop and lhe slockpiIe lecone
slaliIized. Thal line is piolalIy neai.
A soIulion lo lhe paiadox of TNW~assels lhal
Russia appaienlIy does nol need, lul conlinues lo
hoId on lo~can le found in doneslic poIilics ialhei
lhan in slialegic pIanning. The Russian goveinnenl
allilude lovaid TNW appeais lo iepiesenl a conpIex
nix of doneslic and luieaucialic poIilics, (nis)pei3
ceplions, and idiosynciasies. Ils nain eIenenls couId
le sunnaiized in lhe foIIoving vay:
- Nc Mcrc Unrcciprcca|cd Ccnccssicns. Resis3
lance lo ains conlioI neasuies vilh iegaid lo
TNW appeais lo ieecl lhe deep-sealed iejec3
lion of Coilachev and eaiIy YeIlsin piopensily
lo nake vide-ianging concessions lhal Ldvaid
Shevaidnadze used lo caII concessions lo
connon sense. Russian nuneiicaI supeiioi3
217
ily is iegaided as an advanlage lhal couId le
liaded foi sonelhing langilIe and shouId nol
le given avay. Weslein allenpls lo peisuade
Russia lo acl on TNW (vhich ly defauIl neans
asynneliic ieduclions) lend lo le iegaided
vilh suspicion vilhoul seiious lhoughl aloul
lhe ieasons foi lhese pioposaIs. Inslead, such
0..#8*.( 0+# (##- 0( *+//1 ."0. ."#(# '#0*/-(
aie liuIy vaIualIe.
- |ncr|ia. The Iongei lhe sane posilion is nain3
lained, lhe noie enlienched il lecones. A posi3
lion lhal has leen in pIace foi ovei a decade can
le changed eilhei vhen lhe Ieadeiship changes
(as happened vhen Coilachev assuned lhe
highesl ofhce in lhe Soviel Union) oi vhen lhe
exleinaI enviionnenl changes. Neilhei condi3
lion is piesenl loday.
- Capaoi|i|ics-8ascd P|anning. The Russian eIile,
incIuding lhe niIilaiy Ieadeiship, aculeIy feeIs
."# 2-7#+.0&-.5 /1 ."# &-.#+-0.&/-06 #-%&+/-3
nenl. The nain lhieal is sliII associaled vilh
lhe Uniled Slales and ils aIIies, lul olhei po3
lenliaI lhieals aie eneiging and lhe Russian
niIilaiy is ieIuclanl lo pail vilh any assels. In
2OO5-O7, siniIai aigunenls veie nade in favoi
of lhe vilhdiavaI fion lhe INI Tiealy.
- Parccnia| Grcup Pc|i|ics. As noled alove, lhe
Navy is inleiesled in keeping TNW as a jusl-
in-case oplion.
43
In conliasl, lhe Aii Ioice
appeais nuch Iess inleiesled in TNW excepl
foi veapons assigned lo Tu-22M3 nediun
lonleis. Olhei gioups piolalIy have even
Iess inleiesl in TNW, lul aie unIikeIy lo invesl
poIilicaI iesouices lo gel iid of lhese veapons.
SiniIaiIy, lhe Ioieign Minisliy, anolhei in3
218
poilanl pIayei, has nany olhei noie piessing
ilens on ils agenda. Since no paiochiaI gioup
is seiiousIy inleiesled in changing lhe exisling
posilion, lhe Navys inleiesl vins ly defauIl.
- Arns Ccn|rc| Cna||cngcs. Russian anlivaIence
vilh iegaid lo TNW nighl aIso ieecl lhe
chaIIenges of ciafling a veiihalIe liealy. The
liadilionaI appioach, accoiding lo vhich nu3
76#0+ '#0*/-( 0+# 077/2-.#, 1/+ 0-, +#,27#,
indiieclIy lhiough accounling and ieduclion
of nucIeai-capalIe deIiveiy vehicIes, is inap3
pIicalIe lo TNW. Nev accounling iuIes iequiie
nuch noie inliusive veiihcalion al seveiaI
calegoiies of nucIeai-ieIaled faciIilies lhal have
nevei leen suljecl lo inspeclions~sloiage siles
1/+ -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 ,&(80-.6#8#-. 107&6&.&#(9
elc. WhiIe such pioceduies aie, in piincipIe, nol
unlhinkalIe, il vouId lake seiious inveslnenl
/1 */6&.&706 +#(/2+7#( ./ /%#+7/8# #-.+#-7"#,
iesislance and poIilicaI opposilion.
Russias iesponse lo aII Weslein pioposaIs has
+#80&-#, ."# (08# 1/+ 5#0+(<0-5 ,&(72((&/- &( /-65
possilIe aflei lhe Uniled Slales vilhdiavs ils TNW
fion Luiope. An inleiesling aspecl of lhal condilion
is lhal Moscov appaienlIy does nol have a pIan as lo
vhal il nighl do if lhe Uniled Slales, indeed, conpIies
vilh il. One can hnd a iange of ialhei conliadicloiy
opinions on hov Russian nonslialegic nucIeai veap3
ons (NSNW) couId le Ieveiaged, lul lhese cone fion
any quailei excepl fion high-IeveI ofhciaIs. y aII in3
dicalions, lhe soIe puipose of lhe cuiienl Russian po3
silion is lo deecl U.S. and Luiopean piessuie.
WhiIe Aneiican TNW in Luiope aie fev, lhey pio3
vide a convenienl juslihcalion foi iejeclion of any ini3
219
lialives ained al ieducing lhe Russian TNW aisenaI.
LffecliveIy, Russia has caIcuIaled lhal NATO vouId
le unalIe lo pail vilh U.S. TNW. So fai lhis caIcuIa3
lion has pioven soIid and, given lhe oulcone of inlei3
naI NATO delales in lhe spiing of 2O1O, viII conlinue
lo succeed al Ieasl in lhe neai fuluie.
Thal said, iecenlIy sone in lhe Russian niIilaiy
appaienlIy legan lo enleilain noie foivaid-Iooking
vievs on lhe fuluie of lhe nonslialegic nucIeai foice.
WhiIe conpIele eIininalion is haidIy on lhe looks
and vilhdiavaI of lhe snaII U.S. foice fion Luiope
is nol chaIIenged, sone lhoughl has leen given lo de3
signing addilionaI oplions. In facl, lheie is ieason lo
leIieve lhal in 2OO9 sone in lhe niIilaiy eslalIishnenl
favoied lhe incIusion of TNW inlo lhe Nev START
negolialions~a pioposaI lhal vas iejecled ly niIilaiy
Ieadeiship. Theie is aIso expeclalion lhal lhe Uniled
Slales vouId insisl on lackIing TNW in lhe nexl slage
of nucIeai ains ieduclion laIks and lhal Russia shouId
piepaie a posilion of ils ovn. WhiIe lhese aie cIeaiIy
8&-/+&.5 %&#'(9 ."# -#' ,#%#6/*8#-.( +#*+#(#-. 0
veIcone sign lhal lhe slone vaII nighl le ciacking.
Q;?825-^4=-;5 ;@ 23!!-45 !=24=8O-6
5367842 42!8547
Russian nodeinizalion piogians aie ieasonalIy
veII knovn, and foi lhe puiposes of lhis chaplei ie3
quiie onIy an oveiviev of key liends. These can le
sunnaiized as foIIovs.
AII lhiee Iegs of lhe liiad undeigo nodeiniza3
lion. These piogians aie diiven ly lhe expiialion of
vaiianly peiiods of syslens inheiiled fion lhe So3
viel Union (i.e., lhe inlended Ienglh of seivice of lhe
veapon)~even lhough lhe vaiianly oi Ienglh of
22O
seivice line is ieguIaiIy exlended, lhis cannol con3
linue indehnileIy. The iale of iepIacenenl is Iov and
nev laIIislic nissiIes, lolh Iand- and sea-lased, caiiy
fevei vaiheads lhan Soviel ones. This neans lhal lhe
aisenaI undeigoes giaduaI ieduclion. The slialegic ai3
senaI viII piolalIy slaliIize ly lhe end of lhis decade
al aloul 8OO-1,2OO vaiheads.
Il is haidIy suipiising lhal Russia chose lo depIoy a
nev geneialion of deIiveiy vehicIes inslead of ieslail3
ing pioduclion of exisling lypes. ehind lhis decision
is lhe Soviel liadilion of uninleiiupled nodeinizalion,
vhich, in luin, vas deleinined ly lhe sliucluie of lhe
Soviel design and pioduclion conpIex.
44
Il shouId
le noled, hovevei, lhal lhe najoiily of nev lypes of
slialegic veapons veie sliII deveIoped in lhe Soviel
Union.
TechnoIogicaIIy and concepluaIIy, cuiienl sliale3
gic nodeinizalion piogians iepiesenl Iineai conlinu3
alion of Soviel piogians. In lhis sense, lhe eneiging
Russian slialegic nucIeai posluie is veiy liadilionaI.
SRI viII piolalIy accounl foi lhe luIk of aII depIoyed
vaiheads (aiound 5O-6O peicenl). The eaiIiei pIans lo
iadicaIIy change lhe sliucluie of lhe liiad and shifl lhe
enphasis lo lhe Navy, vhich veie deveIoped in 2OOO
and appioved ly lhen-Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin, have
leen alandoned. Russia has conlinued lhe Soviel Iine
lovaid ieduclion of vuIneialiIily and nainlenance
of high degiee of ieadiness foi Iaunch~accoiding lo
lhe SRI, aInosl aII ICMs couId le Iaunched vilhin 1
ninule.
45

The aii-lased Ieg of lhe liiad is giaduaIIy shifling
lo a nev langenl, hovevei~lo convenlionaI sliike ca3
paliIily. LvenluaIIy ils ioIe in lhe liiad viII piolalIy
le piinaiiIy synloIic, and foi aII inlenls and puipos3
es lhe Russian slialegic aisenaI viII lecone a dyad.
221
The pace and lhe success iale foi each Ieg of lhe
liiad aie diffeienl. Modeinizalion of lhe Iand-lased,
ICM foice legan in lhe 199Os and piogiesses sIovIy
lul suieIy. Inlioduclion of nev lypes of veapons sys3
lens inlo lhe sea-lased Ieg has encounleied najoi de3
Iays and ils fuluie ienains unceilain. Modeinizalion
of lhe aii Ieg has leen poslponed~Russia pIans lo
ieIy on exisling aiiciafl in lhe foieseealIe fuluie and
onIy veapons foi use ly slialegic lonleis aie leing
giaduaIIy nodeinized vilh an enphasis on conven3
lionaI assels.
-6/Q @;268
The ICM foice nodeinizalion has leen lolh con3
seivalive and nosl successfuI. Il ils cenlei is TopoI-M,
a nev ICM designed in lhe Iasl yeais of lhe Soviel
Union. The piojecl vas pailiaIIy ievised in lhe 199Os
lo adapl lo lhe nev indusliiaI lase (a Iaige pail of
ieIevanl enleipiises ienained oulside Russia). In lhe
2OOOs, lhe sane ICM vas fuilhei iedesigned lo caiiy
seveiaI vaiheads and vas designaled RS-24, oi Yais.
eginning of depIoynenl vas poslponed unliI aflei
lhe expiialion of START I.
The iale of ICM pioduclion is Iov~Iess lhan 1O
nissiIes each yeai, inciease of pioduclion is unIike3
Iy. Aflei 1O yeais, onIy six ieginenls (6O nissiIes) of
siIo-lased ICMs have leen depIoyed and onIy lvo
ieginenls (18 nissiIes) of ioad-noliIe ICMs. In lhe
neanline, lhe SRI has leen exlending seivice Iives of
exisling lypes of deIiveiy vehicIes~lo 31 yeais foi SS-
18 and lo 23 yeais foi TopoI (SS-25) and SS-19.
46
The Iov iale of nissiIe pioduclion nighl le sui3
piising, given lhe inpiessive Soviel capaliIily lo luin
oul Iaige nunleis of nev veapons~in lhe 198Os
222
pioduclion of TopoI (SS-25) vas iepoiledIy al 5O pei
yeai. Speaking in Iale 2OO7, al lhe line of ieIalive h3
nanciaI pIenly, Iiisl Vice-Iieniei and foinei Minislei
of Defense Seigey Ivanov soughl lo nake il cIeai lhal
lhe goveinnenl consciousIy chose lullei veisus
guns. We leIieve, he slaled, lhal ve do nol need
3O Tcpc|-Ms a yeai.
47
B1 7/2+(#9 '# '/26, -/. 8&-,
having lhen, lul lhis vouId nean lhal ve vouId
need lo cul sociaI piogians, housing piogians, and
olhei lhings. He added lhal lhe annuaI depIoynenl
of six lo seven nev nissiIes is sufhcienl foi lhe SRI.
48

Al lhe sane line, Ivanov enphasized lhal niIilaiy
capaliIily, especiaIIy nucIeai capaliIily, shouId le
sufhcienl if ve vanl lo le al a |safej IeveI oi even
neieIy independenl. No one Iikes lhe veak, no one
Iislens lo lhen, eveiyone aluses lhen, and vhen ve
have paiily, olheis laIk lo us diffeienlIy.
49
!"#+# 0+# /."#+ #)*60-0.&/-( 1/+ ."# 6/' +0.# /1
pioduclion. One is lhe lieakup of lhe liadilionaI Sovi3
el nelvoiks: nany Soviel-eia enleipiises lhal conliil3
2.#, ./ *+/,27.&/- /1 7/8*/-#-.( +#80&-#, /2.(&,#
Russia. Il is knovn lhal lhe nunlei of onIy hisl-oi3
dei suppIieis foi TopoI-M is aiound 2OO, ieciealing
lhese nelvoiks fion scialch is difhcuIl, expensive,
line-consuning, and piolalIy ouliighl inpossilIe.
Anolhei possilIe expIanalion is lhal Russia soughl lo
+#(#+%# (/8# 2-2(#, *+/,27.&/- 70*07&.5 1/+ ."# -#'
sulnaiine-Iaunched laIIislic nissiIe (SLM) uIava.
NonelheIess, lhe SRI conhdenlIy pionises lhal ly
2O16 aloul 8O peicenl of aII ICMs viII le nev, i.e.,
depIoyed in lhe posl-Soviel peiiod.
5O
Reduclion undei
Nev START and peihaps undei lhe nexl agieenenl
couId ceilainIy conliilule lo lhal goaI, lul il nevei3
lheIess appeais vishfuI lhinking vilhoul a signihcanl
inciease of funding.
223
Lven noie ienole is lhe pIan lo deveIop a nev
6&=2&,312#6 826.&*6# &-,#*#-,#-. +##-.+5 %#"&76#,
(MIRVed) ICM lo iepIace lhe Soviel SS-18 (lhe nev
ICM viII haidIy cIassify as heavy undei START I
dehnilions, lul ils lhiov-veighl viII IikeIy le signih3
canlIy giealei lhan lhal of TopoI-M, piolalIy al lhe
IeveI of SS-19).
51
DeveIopnenl of lhe nev ICM is sup3
posed lo le conpIeled ly 2O16, lul lhe goaI does nol
appeai ieaIislic. Moie IikeIy, sane as laIk aloul lhe
ievivaI of lhe iaiI-noliIe ICM, il ieecls lhe vishes
of lhe niIilaiy ialhei lhan dehnilive pIans.
!"0. (0&,9 6&=2&,312#6 8&((&6#( "0%#9 &- ."# #5#(
of lhe niIilaiy, ceilain advanlages lhal expIain vhy
lhis Iine of nissiIes is sliII aIive in Russia unIike in
lhe Uniled Slales. TiadilionaIIy, Soviel Iiquid fueI has
leen noie efhcienl lhan Soviel soIid fueI, aIIoving foi
giealei lhiov-veighl foi lhe sane veighl of nissiIe.
Liquid-fueI nissiIes have heIped Russia ielain an in3
piessive slialegic aisenaI aflei lvo decades of hnan3
ciaI, econonic, and poIilicaI luinoiI: a Iaige nunlei
of lhese syslens lhal had leen pioduced in lhe So3
viel Union ienained in diy sloiage, i.e., veie kepl
vilhoul fueI. Duiing lhe posl-Soviel peiiod, lhe niIi3
laiy couId sinpIy lake lhen fion sloiage, fueI, and
depIoy. This cannol le done vilh soIid-fueI nissiIes,
vhose Ienglh of seivice line peiiod legins al lhe no3
nenl of pioduclion.
RecenlIy lhe SRI vas ciilicized ly lhe goveinnenl
foi leing insufhcienlIy anlilious. RepoiledIy, chief of
lhe Coveinnenls Depailnenl foi lhe Suppoil of lhe
MiIilaiy-IndusliiaI Connission, Seigey Khuloilsov,
decIaied lhal lhe SRI vas logged dovn in snaII-scaIe
piogians and does nol have an anlilious Iong-lein
goaI aiound vhich ils fuluie shouId le luiIl, un3
Iike lhe Navy oi lhe Aii Ioice. The nev Iiquid-fueI
224
MIRVed ICM and even lhe iaiI-noliIe ICM did nol
cIassify as sufhcienlIy anlilious, he said.
52

The SRI pioudIy adveilizes lhe defense-penelia3
lion piopeilies of ils nev ICMs
53
lul convenienlIy
faiIs lo nenlion lhal lhis capaliIily vas pail of a Sovi3
el-eia design. In pailicuIai, TopoI-M fealuies ieduced
loosl phase (aloul one-lhiid of lhal of SS-18), vhich
'0( &-.#-,#, ./ +#,27# ."# #11#7.&%#-#(( /1 (*07#3
lased inleiceplois, loday lhis capaliIily is piolalIy
Iess ieIevanl. TopoI-M can aIso caiiy a naneuveialIe
vaihead knovn as IgIa. Theie is no pulIic aulhoiila3
live conhinalion lhal IgIa is acluaIIy leing depIoyed
foIIoving a veiy snaII nunlei of successfuI lesls.
OveiaII, lhe anli-nissiIe defense capaliIily of nev
Russian ICMs shouId nol le oveieslinaled.
!7/Q @;268
Modeinizalion of lhe sea Ieg of lhe liiad has en3
counleied najoi lechnoIogicaI and poIilicaI faiIuies.
The iniliaI pIan vas appaienlIy faiiIy IogicaI: ielain
."# 8/+# 8/,#+- Dc||a ||| 0-, |V sulneisilIe sulna3
iine laIIislic nucIeai (SSNs), and evenluaIIy onIy lhe
60..#+9 '&." +#*607#8#-. 8&((&6#(9 ,#%#6/* +#*607#8#-.
8&((&6#( 1/+ Tqpnccn SSNs, and luiId nev SSNs lo
70++5 ."# (08# 8&((&6#( 0( Tqpnccns. This pIan quickIy
feII apail. The iepIacenenl foi SS-N-2O, knovn as
aik, vas canceIed aflei lhiee faiIed lesl ighls. AI3
lhough lhe faiIuies had leen alliiluled lo pioduclion
shoilconings and one Tqpnccn-cIass SSN had leen
conveiled foi fuilhei lesls of lhe aik,
54
."# 7/-.+07.
foi lhe nev soIid-fueI SLM vas neveilheIess given lo
lhe Moscov Inslilule of TheinaI TechnoIogy (MITT),
lhe sane lhal deveIoped TopoI and TopoI-M ICMs.
Design of lhe nev SSN had lo le iadicaIIy aIleied:
225
consliuclion of lhe hisl sulnaiine in lhe nev cIass
vas pul on hoId unliI nev designs couId le diavn
lo acconnodale a iadicaIIy diffeienl nissiIe. The
Tqpnccn-cIass SSN conveiled foi aik vas conveiled
once again lo seive as a lesling pad foi lhe nev nis3
siIe. This decision, nade in lhe Iale 199Os, vas videIy
alliiluled lo paiochiaI hghls, and in pailicuIai lo lhe
cIose ieIalionship lelveen lhe Diiecloi of MITT Yuii
SoIononov and lhe lhen-Defense Minislei Igoi Sei3
geev, pieviousIy lhe Connandei of lhe SRI.
MITT pIanned lo nake lhe nev SLM, code-
naned uIava, an exanpIe of a nev appioach lo
,#%#6/*8#-. /1 8&((&6#(<+#60.&%#65 10(.9 +#60.&%#65
cheap, vilh fevei lesl ighls, and Iaige-scaIe use of
conpulei sinuIalion. The nev nissiIe vas supposed
lo lecone a najoi depailuie fion Soviel liadilions of
SLM design and le nuch Iighlei and snaIIei lhan
Soviel soIid-fueI SLMs. The pIan faiIed ulleiIy~lo
dale, seven oul of 12 lesl ighls have faiIed, and lhose
ly ialhei ieIaxed ofhciaI ciileiia, lhe najoiily of non-
goveinnenlaI expeils cIassify onIy one oi lvo lesls as
successfuI.
y lhe end of 2OO9 lhe goveinnenl and lhe Minis3
liy of Defense Iosl palience. SoIononov had lo iesign
fion lhe posilion of lhe head of MITT and a speciaI
connission vas eslalIished lo invesligale lhe cause
of faiIuies concIuded lhal lhe nissiIes design vas
fauIly.
55
Resunplion of lesls vas iniliaIIy scheduIed
foi eaiIy sunnei 2O1O, lul lhen vas poslponed un3
liI Iale faII.
56
SoIononov, hovevei, conlinues lo insisl
lhal faiIuies veie caused ly sulslandaid conponenls
suppIied ly lhe indusliy, vhich no Iongei can nain3
lain high quaIily.
57

In lhe neanline, lhe nev SSN piogian con3
linued in spile of deIays vilh lhe nissiIe. The hisl
226
sulnaiine in lhe nev cIass, Yuri Dc|gcru|i, has leen
connissioned, lvo noie aie leing luiIl, and lhe keeI
of lhe fouilh vas Iaid in }anuaiy 2O1O. Il vas aIso de3
7&,#, ./ +#.0&- /-# 8/+# Tqpnccn SSN and conveil il
foi uIava. LvenluaIIy lhis nighl nean lhal, given lhe
Iov pioduclion capaliIily, Russia viII have seiious
piolIens pioducing lhe necessaiy nunlei of SLMs
lo equip aII sulnaiines (16 pei each nev 8crcq3760((
SSN and 2O pei each Tqpnccn, fuluie 8crcq SSNs aie
expecled lo caiiy 2O nissiIes each).
The soiiy slale of nodeinizalion of lhe Navy in3
cieasingIy causes dispIeasuie of lhe lop echeIons of
lhe goveinnenl~Iasl yeai Iiisl Depuly Iiine Min3
islei Seigey Ivanov ieveaIed lhal lhe Navy consunes
4O peicenl of lhe lolaI defense ludgel, noie lhan lhe
SRI, Aii Ioice, and Space Ioices conlined, and lhal
lhe luIk of lhal spending goes lo lhe nucIeai sulna3
iine foice.
58
InpIicil in lhe lone of his ienaiks vas iec3
ognilion lhal lhe yieId fion lhal inveslnenl ienains
unsalisfacloiy.
In lhe neanline, lhe sea Ieg of lhe Russian liiad
7/-(&(.( /1 Dc||a ||| 0-, |V SSNs. These sulnaiines
veie given an oveihauI lo exlend lheii seivice Iives.
The Makeev design luieau, vhich had Iosl lhe con3
liacl foi a nev SLM, pioduced a nodeinized veision
of SS-N-23. In lhe coning decade, Dc||a |||s viII le
piolalIy phased oul and onIy sIighlIy nevei Dc||a |V(
viII ienain in seivice. Thus, eaiIy conpIelion of lhe
uIava piogian ienains a nusl~vilhoul il, Russia
iisks Iosing lhe sea Ieg conpIeleIy ly lhe end of lhis oi
lhe leginning of lhe nexl decade.
Il nighl le inleiesling lo conlenpIale lhe Russian
slialegic liiad vilhoul lhe navaI conponenl. Iiopos3
aIs lo phase oul SSNs veie quile popuIai in lhe Iale
199Os-eaiIy 2OOOs, vhen inveslnenl inlo nodeiniza3
227
lion of lhal Ieg vas sliII nininaI. In lhal case, Russia
nighl seek nuch deepei culs in nucIeai aisenaIs lhan
olheivise IikeIy and lhe nission of slialegic delei3
ience vouId le suppoiled ly lhe SRI vhiIe de-esca3
Ialion vouId sliII le enliusled lo lhe Aii Ioice. In lhe
end, liansilion fion a liiad lo a dyad nighl le a good
choice, lul il appeais unIikeIy foi poIilicaI ieasons
and aIso lecause loo nuch noney has aIieady leen
spenl on uIava~il is difhcuIl lo inagine a poIilicaI
oi niIilaiy Ieadei vho vouId le viIIing lo accepl ie3
sponsiliIily foi lhe faiIuie.
4-2 @;268
The Aii Ioice nevei pIayed a najoi ioIe in lhe So3
viel nucIeai posluie, ils shaie in lhe slialegic aisenaI
vas Iiniled lo aloul 5 peicenl of depIoyed vaiheads.
This choice is easy lo expIain ly lhe liadilionaI diav3
lacks of Soviel aiiciafl-luiIding (especiaIIy in engines
and navigalionaI equipnenl) as veII as lhe Iong dis3
lances heavy lonleis had lo covei lo ieach lhe Uniled
Slales, neaning a veiy Iong gap lelveen decision lo
Iaunch and deIiveiy as veII as veiy Iiniled payIoad.
The silualion legan lo change sonevhal in lhe 198Os
aflei lhe Soviel Union succeeded in deveIopnenl of
Iong-iange aii-Iaunched ciuise nissiIes (ALCMs).
Iosluie pIans diavn in lhe Iale 198Os foiesav sone
(aIleil sliII Iiniled) inciease in lhe shaie of vaiheads
caiiied on heavy lonleis.
In lhe posl-Soviel line, lhe Aii Ioice ienained al
lhe lack luinei duiing lhe Iaigei pail of lhe 199Os
unliI Ukiaine agieed lo seII sone heavy lonleis lo
Russia inslead of eIininaling lhen undei START I.
This aIIoved incieasing lhe nunlei of heavy lonl3
eis lo a IeveI lhal had al Ieasl sone niIilaiy sense. In
228
lhe 2OOOs, lhe Aii Ioice lecane lhe Ieading assel lo
suppoil lhe nev nission, lhal of de-escaIalion.
59

NucIeai-capalIe aiiciafl (heavy lonleis Tu-16O
and Tu-95MS as veII as nediun Tu-22M3) have ie3
nained al lhe lack luinei of nodeinizalion effoils:
exisling heavy lonleis aie expecled lo Iasl unliI al
6#0(. ."# #-, /1 ."&( ,#70,#9 (/ ."#+# &( -/ +2("9 &- 7/-3
liasl lo lhe ICM and SLM foices, vhich nusl le ie3
pIaced as a nallei of uigency. Inslead, Russia has con3
cenlialed on upgiading lhe eIeclionics and avionics of
lhese aiiciafl, sone heavy lonleis designed lo caiiy
ALCMs aie leing conveiled lo caiiy giavily lonls.
Modeinizalion of nucIeai veapons has leen veiy
Iiniled. Russia is voiking on a nev-geneialion (ie3
poiledIy supeisonic) ALCM, Kh-1O1, and ils conven3
lionaI veision, Kh-1O2. Woik on lhal piogian has
leen exceedingIy sIov~il legan in lhe 199Os and lhe
Iasl nenlion of il is in 2OOO. Aflei lhal, nenlions of
lhal piogian ceased unliI iecenlIy, vhen il suifaced
onIy once and aInosl ly accidenl. OlviousIy, lhe pio3
gian is highIy cIassihed, lul voik conlinues, vhich
is haidIy suipiising lecause al lhe nonenl lhe onIy
Iong-iange nucIeai assel is a hopeIessIy ouldaled Kh-
55. Theie is aIso a pIan lo give high piecision capaliI3
ily lo giavily lonls using lhe eneiging CIolaI Navi3
galion SaleIIile Syslen (CLONASS).
LvenluaIIy aiiciafl have lo le iepIaced, of couise.
Anong lhe exisling lypes, lhe Tu-22Ms viII piolalIy
le phased oul conpIeleIy. Sone suggesl lhal Su-34
couId lake up ils ioIes, lul il is uncIeai vhelhei a de3
cision has leen nade yel, vhich piolalIy indicales
lhal Russian niIilaiy does nol foiesee nany nucIeai
nissions al Su-34 ianges.
Long-iange pIans of lhe Aii Ioice aie luiIl aiound
a liand nev lonlei, vhich viII iepoiledIy faII sone3
229
vheie lelveen Tu-22M3 and heavy lonleis in iange
and Ioad and is expecled lo le cheapei lhan lhe heavy
lonleis.
6O
Ils nain nissions aie iepoiled lo le in Lui3
asia and peihaps aIso lhe noilhein pail of Afiica. One
'/-,#+( '"#."#+ ."# -#' 0&+7+01. '&66 07.20665 1066
undei lhe liadilionaI START I dehnilion of a heavy
lonlei. The leginning of lesl ighls is scheduIed
foi 2O15-16 and pioduclion couId legin aiound 2O2O.
These dales aie ceilainIy suljecl lo ievision, vhich is
haidIy suipiising given lhe liadilion of deIays of aII
nodeinizalion piogians: in facl, hisl iepoils aloul
lhe nev lonlei appeaied noie lhan 1O yeais ago, lul
lhe Minisliy of Defense concIuded a foinaI conliacl
vilh TupoIev design luieau foi a nev aiiciafl onIy in
Augusl 2OO9.
Infoinalion aloul nodeinizalion of lhe aii Ieg
of lhe slialegic liiad is scaice, lul is lhe infoinalion
avaiIalIe Ieads lo lhiee concIusions. Iiisl, lhe Aii
Ioice is IikeIy lo Iose a ioIe in slialegic deleiience,
even lhough foinaIIy and foi ains conlioI puiposes
il viII ienain pail of slialegic aisenaI. Second, lhe Aii
A/+7# '&66 80&-.0&- 0-, *#+"0*( #%#- #-"0-7# 0 -23
cIeai ioIe al lhe lhealei IeveI. This ioIe viII nol iequiie
Iaige capaliIily and lhe nunlei of Iong-iange aiiciafl
viII ienain ieIaliveIy snaII. Thiid, Iong-iange aiiciafl
viII incieasingIy suppoil convenlionaI Iong-iange
nissions. In lhis, Russia foIIovs lhe liends of lhe U.S.
Aii Ioice vilh aloul 15-2O yeais Iag. Moie aloul lhis
aspecl of Aii Ioice nodeinizalion viII le discussed in
lhe ieIevanl seclion of lhis chaplei.
23O
Q-!!-78 ?8@85!8 -5 3D!DU23!!-45
2874=-;5!L-:
>8#+&70- 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# *60-( 0+# 0- /6, &((2#
in U.S.-Russian ieIalions. They dale lack lo Reagans
S|ra|cgic Dcfcnsc |ni|ia|itc (SDI), lensions decIined in
lhe eaiIy 199Os, lul legan lo luiId up again lovaid
lhe end of lhal decade and ieached lhe peak duiing
lhe Iasl decade as a iesuIl of U.S. vilhdiavaI fion lhe
AM Tiealy and lhe sulsequenl announcenenl of lhe
inlenlion lo depIoy 1O inleiceplois in IoIand and a
iadai in Czech RepulIic. The announcenenl in Sep3
lenlei 2OO9 of a change in nissiIe defense pIans foi
Luiope heIped lo signihcanlIy aIIeviale lhe aciinony,
lul did nol ienove il conpIeleIy.
Thus conicl has conlinued foi aInosl 3 decades.
> .+265 72+&/2( #6#8#-. /1 ."# *&7.2+# &( ."0. (.+0.#3
gic nissiIe defense sliII does nol exisl. So fai, il has aII
leen aloul inlenlions and lhe piojecled capaliIily of
lhe fuluie syslen.
>-/."#+ 72+&/2( #6#8#-. &( ."0. ."#+# &( 07.20665
veiy IillIe lo le said aloul lhe naluie and lhe dynanic
of lhal conicl. The fauIl Iines aie sinpIe and sliaighl3
foivaid, lhey have nol changed in nany yeais.
The Russian viev of nissiIe defense is infoined
ly lhe liadilionaI viev of slialegic deleiience luiIl
aiound nuluaI vuIneialiIily. UndeiIying Russian op3
posilion is feai lhal lhe Uniled Slales couId acquiie lhe
aliIily lo deny Russia aliIily lo iespond lo an allack,
lhis concein vas shaped in lhe 198Os ly SDI pIans.
Lven lhough lhe IikeIihood of a Iaige-scaIe nucIeai
'0+ &( *+07.&70665 -/-#)&(.#-.9 ."#+# &( 1#0+ ."0. (27" 0
capaliIily couId le used as a Ieveiage lo exliacl con3
cessions and exeil poIilicaI piessuie. In olhei voids,
il goes sliaighl lo lhe heail of lhe viev lhal nucIeai
231
veapons guaianlee Russias secuiily and soveieignly.
Hence, opposilion lo nissiIe defense anounls lo noie
lhan jusl a sliaighlfoivaid niIilaiy caIcuIalion. The
issue has lecone enolionaIIy chaiged and suspicions
nov nallei noie lhan cooI-headed assessnenl.
ViiuIenl, oflen hysleiicaI Russian opposilion lo
lhe Ceoige W. ush pIans lo luiId a Iiniled slialegic
defense capaliIily in Luiope has denonslialed lvo
undeiIying and inleilvining liends lhal nake conicl
aInosl inevilalIe.
The hisl liend is lhe nuIlipIe capaliIilies of a sys3
len designed lo piolecl lhe Uniled Slales againsl Iia3
nian oi Noilh Koiean nissiIes. The sane assels couId
lheoielicaIIy inleicepl Russian nissiIes as veII, and
lhal iesiduaI capaliIily convenienlIy feeds inlo lhe
concein aloul lhe ciediliIily of slialegic deleiience.
AInosl no one in Russia leIieved lhe ofhciaI jusli3
hcalion piovided ly lhe ush adninislialion lecause,
accoiding lo Russian niIilaiys eslinales, Iian viII nol
acquiie nissiIes vilh slialegic iange foi nany yeais.
Hence, Russians liied lo inagine lhe ieaI puipose
of lhe pIanned nissiIe defense and, nol suipiisingIy,
concIuded il vas inlended againsl Russia~voisl-case
pIanning and suspicions sliII lo a Iaige exlenl iuIe lhe
day in Moscov. Washinglons assuiances lhal lhe sys3
len vouId le Iiniled veie nol laken seiiousIy~lhe
pIanned depIoynenl vas iegaided as a fool in lhe
dooi, vilh lhe hisl 1O inleiceplois suppIenenled ly
dozens noie al a Ialei slage.
> 12+."#+ 7/8*6&70.&/- '0( ."# 80--#+ 0-, (.56#
of Russian iheloiic, vhich aInosl aIvays faiIed lo
76#0+65 7/-%#5 ."# .+2# -0.2+# /1 7/-7#+-<&. '0( -/.
aloul lhe syslen lhe ush adninislialion pIanned, lul
ialhei aloul ils possilIe expansion in lhe fuluie. Rus3
sian slalenenls veie usuaIIy devoled lo shoil-iange
232
pIans. Concein aloul fuluie capaliIily vas fuilhei
enhanced ly lhe insislence of lhe While House lhal
."# *60- '0( /*#-3#-,#, 0-, +#12(06 ./ (#. 0-5 6&83
ils, vhelhei foinaIIy oi infoinaIIy. The open-ended
naluie of lhe pioposed syslen fuilhei slienglhened
Russian leIief lhal lhe liue pIans veie nuch noie
oninous lhan lhose announced pulIicIy.
OnIy ieIaliveIy iaieIy did Russians cIeaiIy dislin3
guish lelveen innediale Aneiican pIans and pos3
silIe fuluie expansion. Speaking in Ieliuaiy 2OO7,
Chief of lhe Aii Ioice VIadinii MikhaiIov said lhal he
iegaided veiy caInIy lhe pIanned nissiIe defenses
in Laslein Luiope.
61
Ioinei Chief of Slaff of Sliale3
gic Rockel Ioices Vikloi Yesin opined lhal lhe nain
lhieal of nissiIe defense cane fion undehned aichi3
lecluie. WiII lheie le 1O inleiceplois oi a lhousand`
Ils 1O nov, lul no one can guaianlee lheie viII nol
le noie. He anlicipaled lhal evenluaIIy lhe Uniled
Slales vouId aIso depIoy nissiIe defense assels in }a3
pan, Cieal iilain, oi Noivay.
62
Depuly Chief of lhe
Main Diiecloiale of InleinalionaI Coopeialion al lhe
Minisliy of Defense Yevgenii uzhinskii said lhal cui3
ienl snaII-scaIe depIoynenl pIans veie lul eIenenls
of a lioadei vision~a gIolaI nelvoik of nissiIe de3
fense aiound Russias loideis.
63

!"&( 6#0,( ./ ."# (#7/-, 0-, *#+"0*( ."# 8/(. &83
poilanl fealuie of lhe conicl ovei nissiIe defense~il
has leen aloul lhe Iack of piediclaliIily. In lhe alsence
of ieasonalIy cIeai-cul, dehnilive Iong-lein pIans,
Russian lhinking has leen unavoidalIy infoined ly
voisl-case scenaiios. =B% G0," 'GA0#"$." E%,,0. "B$"
cnu!d bc drawn frnm thc cnn0Icts nf thc !ast dccadc
nvcr mIssI!c dcfcnsc Is sImp!c, but pcrhaps dIfcu!t
"0 'GAE%G%."_"B% .%%+ Y0# A#%+'("$H'E'"[D 3D!D %YU
Y0#", "0 G$'."$'. "#$.,A$#%.([ "B#0*&B A#0F','0.
233
0Y '.Y0#G$"'0. $H0*" AE$., "*#.%+ 0*" "0 H% '.,*YU
cIcnt.
Il is no vondei lhal lhe Iovesl poinl in U.S.-Rus3
(&0- &-.#+07.&/- /- 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# '0( ."# #-, /1
2OO7 and 2OO8. In Oclolei 2OO7, a lvo-ly-lvo neel3
ing (lelveen foieign and defense ninisleis of lhe lvo
counliies) seened lo have achieved a pieIininaiy
agieenenl on a sel of conhdence luiIding neasuies
inlended lo aIIeviale Russian conceins. Neilhei side
vas fuIIy salished vilh il, lul aloul a veek aflei lhal
neeling VIadinii Iulin (al lhal line sliII piesidenl of
Russia) indicaled lhal Moscov iegaided lhal lenlalive
deaI as a foundalion foi possilIe fuluie agieenenl.
64

When lhe Uniled Slales liansnilled ils pioposaIs on
nissiIe defense in viiling a nonlh Ialei (deIay vas
asciiled lo pioliacled luieaucialic in-hghling in
Washinglon), hovevei, Russian ofhciaIs pionplIy
iejecled lhen, accusing lhe Uniled Slales of ieliacl3
ing lhe conpionises discussed duiing lhe Cales-Rice
visil and ieluining lhe negolialions lo squaie one.
65

Aflei lhal, Moscov cane lo iegaid diaIogue vilh lhe
Uniled Slales on nissiIe defense as inpossilIe.
Againsl lhal lackgiound, lhe Seplenlei 2OO9 an3
nouncenenl aloul a ievision of pIans foi defense of
Luiope vas seen as posilive nevs. WhiIe piincipIed
/**/(&.&/- ./ 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# ,&, -/. ,&(0**#0+9 ."#
nev aichilecluie vas al Ieasl IogicaIIy expIainalIe. Il
vas cIeaiIy inlended lo defend Luiope fion cxis|ing
Iianian nissiIes and al lhe sane line in lhe neai fuluie
viII nol have capaliIily lo inleicepl Russian ICMs.
AcknovIedgnenl ly lhe Uniled Slales in lhe Nev
START liealy of a ieIalionship lelveen offensive and
defensive veapons aIso conliiluled lo a caInei lone
of inleiaclion on nissiIe defense. Nev START did nol
iesoIve lhe issue fion lhe Russian peispeclive lul vas
234
a posilive hisl slep lovaid a hnaI soIulion. LffecliveIy,
il loughl line foi a noie consliuclive engagenenl,
and lhis is piolalIy lhe naxinun lhal couId le done
al lhe cuiienl slage.
NeveilheIess, lhe issue did nol fade avay con3
pIeleIy. WhiIe cuiienl pIans aie nol a souice of seiious
concein, possilIe fuluie capaliIilies sliII aie. Chief of
CeneiaI Slaff NikoIai Makaiov decIaied lhal U.S. nis3
siIe defense in ils cuiienl shape and capaliIily is nol
a concein foi Russia, lul Iong-lein pIans lo deveIop
slialegic nissiIe defense couId lecone a lhieal.
66

Accoiding lo VIadinii Dvoikin, lhe ciisis lelveen
Russia and lhe Uniled Slales ovei nissiIe defense has
leen poslponed |ly lhe signing of Nev STARTj, lul il
7/26, +#.2+- &- 0- #%#- 8/+# 072.# ("0*# 01.#+ ."# (#03
lased nissiIe defense syslen luiIl aiound SM-3 inlei3
ceplois and lheii giound-Iaunched anaIogues acquiie
slialegic capaliIily ly 2O2O.
67
Thal is, vhiIe lhe hisl
iiiilanl~nuIlipIe capaliIilies~has leen ienoved,
lhe olhei and noie inpoilanl one, piediclaliIily, sliII
needs lo le addiessed.
A conpIicaling fealuie lhal has eneiged duiing
lhe Iasl decade vas lhe eneigence of cIose coopeialion
lelveen Russia and China in opposilion lo U.S. nis3
siIe defense pIans. olh counliies shaie nany of lhe
(08# 7/-7#+-( 0-, "0%# 4/&-.65 07.#, &- 068/(. #%#+5
conceivalIe inleinalionaI foiun lo oppose and deiaiI
Aneiican pIans. A luining poinl in lhal coopeialion
vas 2OO5, vhen Ioieign Minislei Seigey Laviov de3
cIaied lhal Russia and China oc|n 107# ."# sanc ."+#0.
fion U.S. nissiIe defense pIans. As a iesuIl, Russias
aliIily lo hnd acconnodalion vilh lhe Uniled Slales,
Iaunch coopeialive piogians, elc., is nov Iiniled le3
cause il couId le seen ly China as a leliayaI.
235
Quile paiadoxicaIIy, anolhei, equaIIy peisislenl
lhene in lhe Russian appioach lo U.S. nissiIe defense
piogians has leen pioposaIs foi coopeialion. In lhe
eaiIy 199Os, lhese pioposaIs veie luiIl aiound a no3
lion lhal Russia couId conliilule lechnoIogies deveI3
oped duiing decades of R&D in nissiIe defense. These
incIuded piogians Iaunched in lhe 198Os~aIlhough
lhe Soviel Union vehenenlIy opposed SDI and ad3
veilized asynneliic iesponses lo il (i.e., lhiough
enhancenenl of offensive veapons capaliIily), il
sinuIlaneousIy puisued a vide iange of ils ovn de3
fense piogians, a synneliic iesponse. These veie
-/. *0+.&7260+65 0,%0-7#, 0-, 8/(.65 +#80&-#, 0. ."#
slage of ieseaich, lul lheii scaIe vas quile inpies3
sive~lhey consuned noie lhan haIf (aloul 52 pei3
cenl) of aII spending on slialegic veapons.
Since lhe Iale 199Os, Russia soughl lo shovcase a
defense syslen againsl laclicaI nissiIes, S-3OO, as veII
as anolhei syslen, S-4OO (al lhal line sliII in lhe pipe3
Iine), vhich vas inlended lo counlei inleinediale-
iange nissiIes. Indeed, lhe 1997 Nev Yoik IiolocoIs,
vhich diev a Iine lelveen slialegic and nonsliale3
gic defenses (i.e., lhose lhal veie lanned oi aIIoved
undei lhe 1972 AM Tiealy), veie caiefuIIy ciafled
ly Russia lo piolecl S-4OO. The highesl poinl of lhese
inilialives vas a pioposaI nade in eaiIy 2OO1, vhich
1/+#(0' 0 +#60.&%#65 '#663,#%#6/*#, *60- 1/+ ."# ,#3
fense of Luiope consisling of a conlinalion of S-3OO
and S-4OO, lhis pioposaI vas oveiIooked ly lhe Unil3
ed Slales, vhich, undei lhe nev adninislialion, vas
noving lovaid aliogalion of lhe AM Tiealy.
Il is inpoilanl lo undeisland lhe Russian dehni3
lion of coopeialion. Il assuned lhal Moscov vouId
suppIy veapons syslens (and gel paid foi lhen), le
an inlegiaI pail of decisionnaking on lhe aichilecluie
236
of lhe defense syslen (and have lhe iighl lo velo eIe3
nenls of lhe syslen lhal couId le used lo liack and/
oi inleicepl Russian nissiIes), and le pail of opeialing
lhe syslen (incIuding lhe iighl lo pievenl Iaunches of
inleiceplois againsl Russian nissiIes). The dehnilion
of coopeialion used ly lhe Ceoige W. ush adnin3
islialion vas diffeienl. The nosl inpoilanl piaclicaI
conliilulion lhal vas expecled fion Russia vas dala
fion lhe iadai il opeialed~fion CalaIa in Azeilai3
jan and Ialei fion lhe nev iadai in Ainavii. Thal is,
Russian pailicipalion vouId have lo le passive. This
node did nol salisfy Moscov, and il vas nol piepaied
./ (2**65 ,0.0 ./ 0- >8#+&70-3/*#+0.#, (5(.#89 /-65
lo a joinl one.
IioposaIs aloul a joinl nissiIe defense iesuned
undei lhe Olana adninislialion and have iecenlIy
lecone a cenliaI poinl in Russian ofhciaI and unof3
hciaI slalenenls on nissiIe defense. Iiesidenl Dnilii
Medvedev decIaied iecenlIy, in iesponse lo NATO
oveiluies on coopeialion in nissiIe defense, lhal Rus3
sia vouId le inleiesled in a joinl syslen vilh NATO if
lhe pioposaI vas seiious.
68
Ioinei Chief of Slaff of lhe
SRI Vikloi Yesin opined lhal lhe Uniled Slales and
Russia couId cieale a joinl defense syslen lo piolecl
Luiope againsl Iianian nissiIes and nenlioned lhal
such a syslen couId le conhguied lo inleicepl Iianian
nissiIes vilh speeds up lo 7 kiIoneleis (kn)/second
(lhal is, il vouId le cIassihed as nonslialegic undei lhe
1997 Nev Yoik IiolocoIs) and use dala nol onIy fion
Aneiican iadais, lul aIso fion iadais al CalaIa and
Ainavii. Accoiding lo Yesin, such a syslen couId le
ciealed aflei 2O15.
69
SiniIaiIy, VIadinii Dvoikin viole
lhal a joinl syslen luiIding on sinuIalions conducled
lelveen lhe Uniled Slales and NATO duiing lhe Iasl
decade is lhe onIy vay lo iesoIve lhe conlinuing con3
237
lioveisy ovei nissiIe defense. In his viev, hovevei,
lhe syslen does nol need lo le fuIIy inlegialed and
inslead couId le luiIl on dividing iesponsiliIily foi
diffeienl seclois.
7O

The pioposed Russian conliilulion is sliII S-3OO
and S-4OO syslens, vhich aie nov in a noie advanced
slage lhan lhey used lo le 1O yeais ago. In facl, lhe
S-4OO enleied lesl depIoynenl in 2OO7 and is expecled
lo go inlo nass pioduclion Ialei lhis yeai oi in 2O11,
foIIoving Iong deIays vilh deveIopnenl of a nev in3
leiceploi. Moieovei, Russia is conducling R&D on a
sliII noie advanced syslen, S-5OO Tiiunphaloi, vhich
is supposed lo le ieady foi pioduclion in 2O15 (given
nuIlipIe-yeai deIays vilh S-4OO, lhis ofhciaI lineIine
does nol sound veiy ieaIislic, lhough). Wilh S-5OO,
Russia couId ieach lhe paianeleis pioposed ly Yesin
(7 kn/second foi inconing nissiIes, S-4OO can onIy
inleicepl nissiIes vilh Iess lhan 5 kn/second speed).
>66 &- 0669 (/62.&/- ./ ."# &((2# /1 8&((&6# ,#1#-(#
ienains eIusive. Ieihaps lhe liggesl chaIIenge is Iack
of any cIaiily vilh iegaid lo a hnaI soIulion, lhus, il is
difhcuIl lo decide vhich vay diaIogue shouId sleei.
The Russian piefeience seens lo le foi a nev AM
liealy of sone soil lhal vouId ieguIale nissiIe de3
fense lo guaianlee nuluaI vuIneialiIily of lhe Uniled
Slales and Russia. Such a soIulion is haidIy feasilIe in
lhe neai fuluie. Iuilheinoie, lhe Russian posilion on
nissiIe defense is Iiniled ly ils cIose coopeialion vilh
China, vhose ciileiia foi a nev inleinalionaI iegine
in nissiIe defense aie IikeIy lo le even noie iesliiclive
lhan lhose of Russia. WhiIe a nev poIilicaIIy oi IegaIIy
linding iegine on nissiIe defense seens inpiolalIe,
il is neveilheIess sliII advisalIe lo discuss il, peihaps
unofhciaIIy, lo enhance piediclaliIily and pionole
lellei undeislanding of lhe posilions of aII pailies.
238
In lhe alsence of a hnaI soIulion, a seiies of snaII-
scaIe pailiaI agieenenls on vaiious eIenenls of lhe
+#60.&/-("&* &- ."# 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# 0+#0 (##8( 8/+#
feasilIe. These couId addiess conhdence luiIding
neasuies and enhance lianspaiency and piediclaliIi3
ly. Thal is, conicls seen unavoidalIe, lul lhey can le
ieguIaled and kepl in check. Theie appeais lo le lvo
vays of lackIing diffeiences, neilhei fuIIy acceplalIe
lo lhe Uniled Slales oi Russia foi ieasons of doneslic
poIilics.
The hisl oplion is %.B$.(%+ A#%+'("$H'E'"[. AII lhe
Ioud, sonelines shiiII, slalenenls nolvilhslanding,
Russia has nevei leen conceined aloul shoil-lein
Aneiican pIans, even lhe Ceoige W. ush adninislia3
lions syslen vas nol iegaided as an innediale lhieal.
Concein has leen piinaiiIy aloul fuluie capaliIily,
vhich has so fai ienained undehned. Inleiaclion in
."# 60(. ,#70,# "0( ,#8/-(.+0.#, ."0. (&8*6# &-1/+3
nalion aloul pIans is nol sufhcienl lecause pIans can
change, olhei vays lo enhance piediclaliIily shouId
le consideied logelhei vilh enhanced consuIlalions.
An uIlinale piediclaliIily nechanisn is a nev fuII-
scaIe liealy on nissiIe defense, lul olhei, noie Iiniled
oplions shouId le consideied.
The second oplion favoied ly Russia is a Y*EE[ '.U
"%&#$"%+ G',,'E% +%Y%.,% ,[,"%G. A sliong coopeia3
live piogian in lhal aiea couId change lhe Iineup of
doneslic paiochiaI gioups in Russia in favoi of a noie
nodeiale allilude lovaid Aneiican pIans, lul such a
joinl syslen vouId give Russia a ioIe in decisionnak3
ing on aII aspecls of luiIding and opeialing il. Thal
degiee of invoIvenenl and especiaIIy lhe iighl of velo
/%#+ ."# 2(# /1 ."# (5(.#89 '"#."#+ 1/+806 /+ ,# 107./9
is IikeIy lo le unacceplalIe lo Washinglon, loo.
239
A posilive eIenenl in aII lhe conicls and delales
ovei a possilIe nissiIe defense syslen, vhich has nol
alliacled sufhcienl allenlion, is lhal Russia is acluaIIy
piepaied lo conliilule lo lhe defense of Luiope and
polenliaIIy of lhe Uniled Slales fion Iian as Iong as
il is accepled as a fuII pailnei. This couId hnaIIy and
unequivocaIIy pul Moscov inlo lhe Weslein canp
vilh iegaid lo Iian and end lhe Russian allenpls lo
sliaddIe lhe fence vhen il cones lo Russian-Iianian
ieIalions. InleieslingIy, lhe niIilaiy and lhe defense
indusliy seen lo favoi lhal soIulion and, foi a change,
lhe Ioieign Minisliy lakes a noie conseivalive ap3
pioach.
In lhe end, lheie is piolalIy no piospecl of a hnaI
soIulion lo lhe issue of nissiIe defense. In aII IikeIi3
hood, conlioveisy and conicl viII conlinue in lhe
foieseealIe fuluie. The pailies viII conlinue lo nuddIe
lhiough, 1 yeai aflei anolhei vilh ups and dovns and
peihaps vilh sone pailiaI, snaII-scaIe agieenenls on
vaiious aspecls of lhe issue.
7;5OU245O8 6;5M85=-;547 64:4/-7-=R
Russian opposilion lo lhe eneiging U.S. CIolaI
Sliike is veII-knovn. MuIlipIe conceins voiced ly
Russian ofhciaIs and unifoined niIilaiy faII inlo lhiee
calegoiies.
@'#,", high-piecision convenlionaI veapons couId
le used in a disaining hisl sliike againsl lhe Russian
nucIeai aisenaI. This vas a najoi concein in lhe 199Os,
lul ils uigency has leen giaduaIIy decIining. Anong
lhe niIilaiy, lheie is sliII concein aloul lhe aliIily of
high-piecision convenlionaI veapons lo deslioy sofl
laigels, pailicuIaiIy ioad-noliIe ICMs, lul even lhal
is nol consideied a high-piioiily lhieal, al Ieasl nol al
24O
lhe nonenl. y and Iaige, lhis concein is nov Iiniled
lo conseivalive quaileis. Il shouId le noled hovevei,
lhal decIine of lhis concein iesls, lo a Iaige exlenl, on
conlinued ieIiance on nucIeai veapons. Lven veII-
knovn IileiaI expeil AIeksei Ailalov enphasized
iecenlIy lhal as Iong as Russia has a ieIialIe nucIeai
deleiience capaliIily, lhe scenaiio of a nassive and
exlended convenlionaI aii and nissiIe U.S. sliikes us3
ing high-piecision convenlionaI veapons ienains an
ailihciaI lhieal.
71
Wilhoul il, Russia couId have leen
nuch noie conceined aloul U.S. convenlionaI sliike
capaliIily.
!%(0.+, in a Iaige-scaIe conicl convenlionaI as3
sels can do nany of lhe sane lhings as nucIeai veap3
ons, lul aie noie usalIe. To sone exlenl, lhis is nol
so nuch a concein as envy~vheie lhe Uniled Slales
couId uliIize convenlionaI assels Russia is sliII Iiniled
lo nucIeai oplions. The iecenl Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu
vas assessed ly Russian expeils fion pieciseIy lhal
angIe~lhe Uniled Slales no Iongei needs nucIeai
veapons foi ils secuiily and can (oi viII in lhe neai
fuluie) suppoil aInosl aII nissions vilh convenlionaI
assels.
72
=B'#+, and hnaIIy, il is difhcuIl lo dislinguish a
Iong-iange deIiveiy vehicIe vilh a convenlionaI vai3
"#0, 1+/8 ."# (08# %#"&76# #=2&**#, '&." 0 -276#0+
vaihead. Since liajecloiies lovaid lhe najoiily of
IikeIy laigels cioss Russian leiiiloiy oi cIoseIy skiil il,
lhey couId le inleipieled ly lhe eaiIy vaining syslen
as an allack.
73
!"&( 7/-7#+- 0**#0+( +#06 0-, -##,( ./
le addiessed~lhe Russian niIilaiy aie cIeaiIy nol
going lo le salished vilh U.S. nolihcalions in case of
a Iaunch and viII vanl lhe aliIily lo veiify il inde3
pendenlIy. Veiy Iiniled (nonexislenl foi aII piaclicaI
puiposes) Russian capaliIily lo delecl singIe Iaunches
241
fion sulnaiines is IikeIy lo conpIicale lhe nal3
lei even fuilhei. IaiadoxicaIIy, ICMs ained vilh
convenlionaI vaiheads nighl le a lellei oplion foi
CIolaI Sliike lecause Russian inspeclois couId veiify
lhe lype of vaiheads on designaled ICMs duiing ie3
enliy vehicIe (RV) inspeclions undei Nev START (on
lhe olhei hand, lo ieach lhe najoiily of laigels in Lui3
asia, lhe ICM nusl y ovei Russian leiiiloiy, vhich
can le a cause foi concein as veII).
Lven as Russian poIilicians, niIilaiy, and non-
goveinnenlaI expeils conlinue lo ciilicize Aneiican
pIans foi CIolaI Sliike, lhey sinuIlaneousIy advocale
acquisilion of siniIai capaliIily ly Russia. As a veII-
knovn Russia expeil, AIeksandi Khianchikhin, nol3
ed, slialegic veapons aie nol a panacea foi defense
againsl allack againsl Russia.
74
Il is voilh iecaIIing
lhal lhe 2OOO Na|icna| Sccuri|q Ccnccp| and sulsequenl
,/728#-.( 7066#, +#6&0-7# /- -276#0+ '#0*/-( 0 .#83
poiaiy hx unliI Russia acquiies a nodein convenlion3
aI capaliIily.
Lffoils lovaid lhal goaI veie slailed in lhe 198Os,
lul piogiess is sIov. NonelheIess, il enjoys giealei
allenlion lhan nodeinizalion of lhe nucIeai capaliI3
ily. Iiogians incIude Iong- and shoil-iange piecision
guided aii- and giound-Iaunched nissiIes as veII as
-#' 7/882-&70.&/-9 7/880-,9 0-, 7/-.+/6 0((#.(9
a Russian anaIogue lo gIolaI posilioning saleIIiles
(CIS) and CLONASS, vhich shouId enalIe piecision
sliikes.
In lhe eaiIy 2OOOs Russia legan pioduclion of lhe
Kh-555 convenlionaI ALCM (a veision of lhe nucIeai
Kh-55), in lhe 199Os, il aIso slailed lo voik on a liand-
nev Kh-1O1/1O2 ALCM: lhe 1O1 vaiianl foi a nucIeai
vaihead and 1O2 foi convenlionaI. This R&D piogian
has appaienlIy leen exceedingIy sIov and secielive~
242
il vas faiiIy oflen iepoiled in lhe nedia in lhe 199Os,
lul lhen aII infoinalion aloul il disappeaied fion
open souices unliI 2OO9, vhen il vas nenlioned onIy
once and appaienlIy inadveilenlIy. The Aii Ioice has
aIso legun conveision of sone Tu-16O heavy lonleis
fion ciuise nissiIes lo convenlionaI giavily lonls.
In lhe 199Os, Russia aIso deveIoped a nev laclicaI
nissiIe, Iskandei, ils pioduclion legan in lhe nid-
2OOOs. IniliaIIy Iskandei-L vas iepoiled lo have lhe
iange of 28O kn,
75
lul sulsequenlIy ils iange vas ie3
poiledIy incieased lo noie lhan 4OO kn~aloul lhe
sane as lhe SS-23 Oka, vhich vas eIininaled undei
lhe 1987 INI Tiealy. Lalei, a ciuise nissiIe vas aIso
deveIoped foi lhe Iskandei Iaunchei. The decision,
announced in 2OO8, lo depIoy hve liigades (piolalIy
6O Iauncheis vilh lvo nissiIes each) of Iskandeis in
KaIiningiad olIasl~ofhciaIIy in iesponse lo an Anei3
ican pIan lo depIoy nissiIe defense assels in IoIand
and lhe Czech RepulIic
76
~peihaps signaIed a nove
in lhe shifling enphasis fion nucIeai lo convenlionaI
capaliIily vis-a-vis NATO. Moscov had lo canceI
lhese pIans in 2OO9 aflei ievision of lhe U.S. nissiIe
defense piogian, lul lhis piolalIy shovs onIy lhal
lhe pielexl vas viong~a change of U.S. pIans vas
appaienlIy nol expecled. If depIoynenl of Iskandeis
vas indeed pail of a nove lovaid giealei ieIiance on
convenlionaI assels, lhe idea viII le ievived in a nev
conlexl.
An inpoilanl eIenenl of lhe eneiging conven3
lionaI capaliIily is nuIlipuipose (allack) sulnaiines.
Russia is luiIding nev lypes of nucIeai poveied sul3
naiines (SSNs) and dieseI-poveied sulnaiines~
Iiojecl 885 Yasen (lhe hisl SSN, Sctcrcdtins|9 ("/26,
le connissioned lhis oi nexl yeai), Iiojecl 677 Lada
(consliuclion of lhe hisl sulnaiine vas conpIeled in
243
2OO5, lvo noie aie cIose lo conpIelion). These and olh3
ei sulnaiines aie equipped vilh duaI-capalIe ciuise
nissiIes, lolh lhose inlended againsl olhei ships and
againsl Iand laigels. As nenlioned alove, lhe Navy
seeks lo nainlain ils nucIeai capaliIily, especiaIIy vis-
a-vis U.S. Navy, lul convenlionaI assels pIay an in3
cieasingIy visilIe ioIe in lhe Iong-lein pIans.
!"# *07# /1 7/-%#-.&/-06 +#0+808#-. &( (#. ./ &-3
ciease foIIoving lhe 5-day vai, lhe conicl lelveen
Russia and Ceoigia in Augusl 2OO8. Russia von lhis
conicl IaigeIy due lo lhe sheei size of lhe ainy il senl
lo lallIe. Speaking in Seplenlei 2OO8, Dnilii Medve3
dev decIaied:
We nusl achieve supeiioiily in lhe aii, in high-pie3
cision sliikes againsl Iand and sea laigels, in quick
ieIocalion of lioops. . . . y 2O2O, ve nusl soIve lhe
piolIen of . . . conpiehensive equipnenl of foices
vilh nev nodeIs of ains and ieconnaissance assels.
77

Moie lhan 2 decades of voik on CLONASS, vhich
shouId aIIov piecision guidance foi convenlionaI
veapons, is giaduaIIy coning lo conpIelion as veII.
Il cuiienlIy fealuies 21 saleIIiles aIIoving coveiage
of Russias ovn leiiiloiy, vilh lvo oi lhiee saleIIiles
foi each Iocalion, Iaunch of six addilionaI saleIIiles is
pIanned foi 2O1O. The syslen is sliII infeiioi lo CIS~
lhe accuiacy of ils cooidinales in Russian leiiiloiy is
iepoiled lo le six neleis, seveiaI lines voise lhan
foi CIS, lul on lhe olhei hand ils chaiacleiislics aie
giaduaIIy inpioving~in 2OO9 il vas 1O neleis.
78
B-#
of lhe nain diavlacks of Soviel saleIIiles lhal necessi3
lales fiequenl iepIacenenl of saleIIiles in oilil~shoil
Iife span~is aIso sIovIy inpioving. A nev saleIIile
vas inlioduced seveiaI yeais ago, and in 2O1O Rus3
sia pIans lo Iaunch lhe hisl saleIIiles lhal viII Iasl 7
244
oi noie yeais. Civen nuIlipIe deIays and lhe Russian
piopensily lo oveieslinale lhe aliIily lo deIivei nev
pioducls, CLONASS viII piolalIy ieach fuII func3
lionaIily onIy in lhe second haIf of lhe coning decade.
WhiIe Russian effoils lo acquiie Iong-iange con3
venlionaI capaliIily seen lo niiioi vhal lhe Uniled
Slales has leen doing foi ovei 2O yeais, lheie is an
inpoilanl asynneliy lhal couId conpIicale hnding a
connon Ianguage. In conliasl lo CIolaI Sliike, vhich
enphasizes slialegic ianges lecause polenliaI laigels
aie Iocaled in soulhein Luiasia (MiddIe Lasl, Soulh
Asia, elc.), Russia is deveIoping a lhealei-IeveI con3
venlionaI capaliIily. IionicaIIy, Aneiican and Russian
laigels, if nol lhe sane, al Ieasl oveiIap, lul Russia
is sinpIy cIosei lo lhese laigels. Iuilheinoie, assels
lhe Uniled Slales needs lo sliike in lhe aieas of ongo3
ing and polenliaI conicls couId aIso le used againsl
Russia, vhich viII ienain a souice of unending con3
cein foi Moscov, vheieas Russian lhealei-iange as3
sels viII nol le alIe lo sliike lhe Uniled Slales. Thus,
Russian niIilaiy and civiIian expeils viII conlinue lo
voice concein aloul CIolaI Sliike. This concein couId
le aIIevialed sonevhal lhiough a sel of conhdence
luiIding neasuies, lul haidIy ienoved conpIeleIy,
al Ieasl nol in lhe foieseealIe fuluie.
9-=L?24947 @2;Q =L8 -5@
The 1987 INI Tiealy has nevei leen pailicuIaiIy
Iiked ly lhe Russian niIilaiy. Il is cIoseIy associaled
vilh najoi concessions on pail of lhe Soviel Union,
'"&7" "0, ./ #6&8&-0.# 80-5 8/+# 8&((&6#( &- ."0.
cIass lhan lhe Uniled Slales. ChaiacleiislicaIIy, lhe se3
cuiily lenehls lhe Soviel Union ollained fion lhal deaI
(ienovaI of Aneiican nissiIes vilh veiy shoil ighl-
245
line) is piaclicaIIy nevei nenlioned~lhe enphasis
is aInosl aIvays on lhe nunleis of veapons suljecl
lo eIininalion. IailicuIaiIy painfuI foi lhe niIilaiy is
lhe agieenenl ly MikhaiI Coilachev lo incIude SS-23
Oka nissiIes inlo lhe liealy: lhe iange of lhal nissiIe is
videIy leIieved (nol vilhoul ieason) lo le leIov 5OO
kn and lhus il shouId nol have leen suljecl lo lhe INI
Tiealy, oi so nany sliII leIieve. In olhei voids, lhe
INI Tiealy is oflen iegaided as a synloI of leliayaI
and unvaiianled concessions. This peiceplion has
sliongIy affecled nany olhei ains conlioI issues, in3
cIuding Russian iesislance lo Weslein pioposaIs vilh
iegaid lo ieduclion of nonslialegic nucIeai veapons.
NeveilheIess, lhe INI Tiealy vas nol onIy inpIe3
nenled, lul Russia conlinues lo uphoId il. UnliI ieI3
aliveIy iecenlIy, lheie vas no ieason lo leIieve lhal
conslanl giunlIing vouId liansIale inlo pioposaIs lo
aliogale il. Such pioposaIs did eneige, hovevei, in
lhe niddIe of 2OOOs.
When lhe Uniled Slales vilhdiev fion lhe AM
Tiealy in 2OO2, nany in Russia iegaided lhis as an ex3
anpIe lhal couId le enuIaled~naneIy, lhal il is ac3
ceplalIe lo vilhdiav fion liealies once lhey aie no
Iongei iegaided as seiving nalionaI inleiesl. U.S. vilh3
diavaI fion lhe AM Tiealy ceilainIy undeinined
lhe aigunenl aloul sanclily of inleinalionaI agiee3
nenls, especiaIIy anong lhe Russian niIilaiy. CenliaI
lo lhe aigunenl aloul aliogalion of lhe INI vas ils
liIaleiaI naluie: olheis have 'en. OfhciaI slalenenls
did nol poinl al specihc counliies, lul pulIic delales
nenlioned China, Noilh Koiea, India, Iakislan, Iian,
and IsiaeI.
An inpoilanl poinl lo leai in nind is lhal pio3
posaIs foi vilhdiavaI fion lhe INI Tiealy veie nol
pail of a desiie lo enhance nucIeai capaliIily. Inslead,
246
lhey veie pail of Russian desiie lo deveIop Iong-
iange convenlionaI assels. Indeed, foi lhe hisl line,
iegiel aloul lhe lan on inleinediale-iange nissiIes
vas voiced duiing lhe second vai in Chechnya, vhen
lhen-Secielaiy of lhe Secuiily CounciI Seigey Ivanov
conpIained lhal vilhoul such assels Russia couId nol
lake oul Chechen liaining canps in Afghanislan.
The desiie lo add inleinediale-iange nissiIes lo
lhe pIanned convenlionaI capaliIily vas ofhciaIIy
speIIed oul duiing Ivanovs neeling of U.S. Secielaiy
of Defense DonaId RunsfeId in Augusl 2OO6 in AIas3
ka. Responding lo RunsfeIds allenpl lo expIain lhe
lenehls of lhe Uniled Slales equipping sone slialegic
nissiIes vilh convenlionaI vaiheads lo nake lhen
usalIe foi sliikes againsl leiioiisls, Ivanov said lhal
convenlionaIIy-ained slialegic nissiIes veie nol lhe
onIy oplion foi sliikes againsl leiioiisls and fai fion
lhe safesl:
TheoielicaIIy, one couId use Iong-iange ciuise nis3
siIes vilh convenlionaI vaiheads, . . . One couId even
considei a lheoielicaI possiliIily of using inleinediale
iange nissiIes, aIlhough lhe Uniled Slales and Russia
cannol have lhen, unIike nany olhei counliies, vhich
aIieady have such nissiIes.
79

Unifoined niIilaiy veie cIeaiIy deIighled lo see
lheii oId favoiile pioposaI pilched lo lhe U.S. Secie3
laiy of Defense and quickIy soughl lo eIaloiale il and
caIn possilIe Aneiican anxielies. An unnaned iep3
iesenlalive of lhe Minisliy of Defense said lhal vhiIe
lhe aliogalion of lhe AM Tiealy opened a dooi lo a
siniIai slep vilh iegaid lo lhe INI Tiealy, lhe Unil3
ed Slales shouId nol le conceined lecause Russian
inleinediale-iange syslens cannol ieach U.S. leiii3
loiy excepl fion Chukolka, acioss lhe eiing Sliail
247
fion AIaska, lul lhey viII nol le depIoyed lheie.
Refeiiing specihcaIIy lo Noilh Koiea, he slaled lhal,
foi Russia, inleinediale-iange nissiIes vouId le fai
8/+# 2(#126 0( 7/-%#-.&/-0665 0+8#, (5(.#8( ."0-
inleiconlinenlaI nissiIes, as pioposed ly lhe Uniled
Slales.
8O

UIlinaleIy, hovevei, lhe ialionaIe foi vilhdiavaI
fion lhe INI Tiealy changed and cane lo le Iinked
lo Ceoige W. ush adninislialions pIans foi nissiIe
defense in Luiope. LaiIy in 2OO7, Chief of lhe CeneiaI
Slaff Yuii aIuevski decIaied lhal Russia vas consid3
eiing vhelhei lo vilhdiav fion lhe INI Tiealy, and
lhe hnaI decision vas conlingenl upon U.S. aclions
vilh iegaid lo depIoynenl of a nissiIe defense syslen
in pioxinily lo Russia.
81
The Ieading ioIe in lhe push foi vilhdiavaI vas
oflen alliiluled lo lhe SRI, vhich soughl lo expand
ils foice and give il noie ieIevance vilhin lhe niIi3
laiy eslalIishnenl. Il is nolevoilhy lhal Diiecloi of
lhe 4lh CenliaI Reseaich Inslilule of lhe Minisliy of
Defense (lhe inslilule conducls ieseaich lo suppoil
lhe SRI) Majoi-CeneiaI VIadinii VasiIenko, in a de3
pailuie fion lhe slandaid Russian peispeclive, said
lhal inleiconlinenlaI slialegic nissiIes veie piefeialIe
lo inleinediale-iange syslens as convenlionaI assels
lecause lhe Iongei iange of lhe foinei nade lhen a
noie veisaliIe assel.
82
!"# >&+ A/+7# '0( 0 8/+# %/3
706 %/&7# /1 /**/(&.&/-<&.( +#*+#(#-.0.&%#( ,#760+#,
."0. ."#5 7/26, (2**/+. 0-5 7/-%#-.&/-06 /+ -276#0+
nission al lhe lhealei IeveI inpIying lhal lheie vas
no ieason lo spend aII lhe poIilicaI and hnanciaI ie3
souices lo depIoy inleinediale-iange Iand-lased nis3
siIes. The Ioieign Minisliy vas anolhei foice oppos3
ing lhe aliogalion of an inpoilanl liealy. Theie vas
aIso quile seiious~and suipiising~opposilion in lhe
248
ianks of ieliied geneiaIs vho cIained lhal lhe Uniled
Slales couId use lhe aliogalion of lhe INI Tiealy once
again lo depIoy Ieishing II and giound Iaunched
ciuise nissiIes (CLCMs) in Luiope, cIeaiIy, unifoined
niIilaiy, vho aie Iess vedded lo CoId Wai concepls,
did nol iegaid lhal as a IikeIy scenaiio.
The oulcone of lhe delales lhal iaged in 2OO5-O7
ieninded NATOs 1979 duaI-liack decision (il is
nolevoilhy hov nuch conlenpoiaiy Russian poIi3
cies aie inuenced ly exanpIes sel ly pasl poIicies
of NATO)~Russia vouId nol vilhdiav fion lhe INI
Tiealy, lul vouId piopose lo nake il a nuIliIaleiaI
agieenenl. Il vas lacilIy assuned lhal aliogalion vas
nol off lhe agenda, hovevei, and lhe issue couId le
ievisiled if counliies vilh inleinediale-iange nissiIe
piogians do nol join. The Uniled Slales joined lhe ini3
lialive and in 2OO8 Moscov even lalIed a diafl nuIli3
IaleiaI INI Tiealy al lhe Confeience on Disainanenl
in Ceneva. Thus lhe issue has ienained on lhe agenda,
and fion line lo line Moscov ieninds olhei coun3
liies aloul lhe pioposaI. The speclei of vilhdiavaI
fion lhe INI Tiealy has nol disappeaied conpIeleIy,
lul is nenlioned veiy iaieIy. Il is possilIe lhal il couId
evenluaIIy die oul quielIy, lul a nev inleinalionaI cii3
sis (foi exanpIe, lelveen Russia and Iian) couId ieig3
nile il once again.
An inpoilanl vaiialIe in any fuluie decisions
vilh iegaid lo lhe vilhdiavaI fion lhe INI Tiealy is
funding. WhiIe iesunplion of pioduclion of SS-2Os oi
exlending lhe iange of Iskandei laclicaI nissiIes aie
lechnoIogicaIIy feasilIe, lhe Russian goveinnenl has
consislenlIy Iiniled funding foi pioduclion of even
exisling cIasses of veapons~ICMs and shoil-iange
nissiIes. Il does nol appeai IikeIy lhal il viII le sup3
249
poiling of an even noie expensive piogians foi inlei3
nediale-iange nissiIes. Il seens IikeIy lhal ieIuclance
./ 066/70.# 12-,( *605#, 0- &8*/+.0-. +/6# &- ."# ,#7&3
(&/- ./ *2+(2# 0 ,&*6/80.&7 /*.&/- 0-, */(.*/-# ."#
aliogalion decision lo an indehnile fuluie.
6;5673!-;5
NucIeai veapons ielain a high piohIe in Russian
nalionaI secuiily slialegy and viII keep il in lhe foie3
seealIe fuluie. Conliaiy lo ofhciaI slalenenls, lheie is
no ieason lo leIieve lhal Russia couId agiee lo a veiy
signihcanl ieduclion, nuch Iess eIininalion, of ils nu3
cIeai aisenaI. Inslead, 1O yeais ago nucIeai veapons
veie given addilionaI ioIes~lhose of deleiiing and
deescaIaling Iiniled (iegionaI) convenlionaI vais.
They aie IikeIy lo keep lhal ioIe as veII, al Ieasl duiing
lhe coning decade.
Al lhe sane line, Russian Ieadeiship cIeaiIy un3
,#+(.0-,( ."# 6&8&.#, 2.&6&.5 /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 0-,
seeks lo enhance convenlionaI capaliIily. In lhis sense,
Russia is noving in sone of lhe sane diieclions as lhe
Uniled Slales~il seeks lo deveIop nissiIe defense and
piecision-guided Iong-iange convenlionaI assels. Ac3
coiding lo Iong-lein pIans, evenluaIIy lhese effoils
shouId aIIov Russia lo ieduce ieIiance on nucIeai
veapons. These piogians encounlei nuIlipIe deIays,
hovevei, and piogiess nuch sIovei lhan anlicipaled.
Russia viII haidIy succeed lefoie lhe end of lhe con3
ing decade and nighl nevei conpIeleIy cIose lhe gap
vilh lhe Uniled Slales and NATO. In lhal case, ieIi3
ance on nucIeai veapons viII conlinue indehnileIy.
Ceilain siniIaiilies nolvilhslanding, diffeiences
lelveen lhe Uniled Slales and Russia viII conlinue~
Moscov is IikeIy lo conlinue seeing U.S. CIolaI Sliike
and nissiIe defense pIans as a polenliaI lhieal. Theie
25O
exisls an inpoilanl asynneliy: WhiIe lhe Uniled
Slales enphasizes slialegic capaliIily (inleiconlinen3
laI-iange convenlionaI assels and aliIily lo inleicepl
slialegic nissiIes), Russia seeks inleinediale-iange
capaliIily and viII conlinue lo viev Aneiican pio3
gians fion lhe peispeclive of slialegic laIance.
OveiaII, lhe ieIalionship viII ienain uneasy, lul
nanagealIe. The key condilion foi a slalIe ieIalion3
ship is piediclaliIily~hisl and foienosl caiefuI nan3
agenenl of Aneiican capaliIilies lhal can affecl Rus3
sian slialegic deleiience. This is nol inpossilIe, lul
nighl le difhcuIl lo achieve due lo lhe dynanic of
doneslic poIilics in lhe lvo counliies.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 ]
1. Rossii Ioka Neolkhodino Yadeinoe Oiuzhie~Ialiiaikh
KiiiII (Russia SliII Needs NucIeai Weapons~Ialiiaich KiiiII),
R|A-Nctcs|i, Novenlei 11, 2OO9.
2. Iodpisano DopoInenie k Iiogianne Razviliya Yadeino-
Oiuzheinogo KonpIeksa, R|A-Nctcs|i, }une 9, 2O1O.
3. Ioi an eaiIy ciilique of lhe Russian concepl of nuIlipo3
Iaiily, see NikoIai Sokov, MnogopoIuysnyi Mii v ZeikaIe Teo3
iii Mezhdunaiodnykh Olnoshenii (The MuIlipoIai WoiId Re3
ecled in lhe Miiioi of InleinalionaI ReIalions Theoiies), SSnA.
||cncni|a, Pc|i|i|a, |dcc|cgiqa (]curna| cf |nc |ns|i|u|c cf USA and
Canada S|udics, Russian Acadcnq cf Scicnccs), No. 7, 1998, pp. 19-
27, No. 8, 1998, pp. 19-31. Ioi lhe Ialesl Russian ciilique of lhis
concepl, see VIadisIav Inozenlsev, Mechly o MnogopoIuysnon
Miie (Drcans aocu| a Mu||ipc|ar lcr|d), Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a9
Seplenlei 18, 2OO8, AIeksandi KonovaIov, Mii Ne DoIzhen yl
MnogopoIyainyn (Tnc lcr|d Mus| Nc| 8c Mu||ipc|ar), Nczati-
sinaqa Gazc|a, Seplenlei 16, 2OO8.
4. The liansciipl of piess confeience of Minislei of Ioieign
Affaiis of lhe Russian Iedeialion vilh Russian nedia, Nev DeI3
hi, India, Oclolei 2O, 2OO8, docunenl 165O-22-1O-2OO8, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.nid.ru/orp_4.nsf/2fcc282co6df40c643256999005c6c8c/168f
10c1ac44dd7dc32574ca0041988a?OpcnDccuncn|.
251
5. Ronan Doliokholov, Olezoiuzhivauyshchie Aigunen3
ly (Disaining Aigunenls), Nctqc |ztcs|ia, Ieliuaiy 13, 2OO8.
6. Disainanenl vas lackIed duiing lhe Queslion and Ansvei
pail of lhe neeling and vas nol addiessed in lhe nain speech. See
Aikadi Dulnov, TieugoInaya DipIonaliya (TiianguIai DipIo3
nacy), Vrcnqa Nctcs|ci, Decenlei 11, 2OO8.
7. Osnovnyye poIozheniya voyennoy dokliiny Rossiyskoy
Iedeialsii, Rcssiqs|aqa gazc|a, Novenlei 18, 1993, pp. 1, 4.
8. Konlseplsiya nalsionaInoy lezopasnosli Rossiiskoi Iedei3
alsii. Ulveizhdena Ukazon Iiezidenla RI ol 17 dekaliya 1997 g.
No. 13OO, atai|ao|c frcn 194.226.83.2/dccuncn|s/dccrcc/1997/_1300-1.
n|n|.
9. AnaloIiy KIinenko and AIeksandi KoIluykov, Osnovnoy
dokunenl voyennogo slioileIslva, Nczatisincqc tcqcnncqc cocz-
rcniqc, Ieliuaiy 13, 1998, p. 4.
1O. These incIuded a deciee of oiis YeIlsin, On uigenl nea3
suies lovaid iefoining lhe Ained Ioices of lhe Russian Ied3
eialion, }uIy 1997, and lvo Secuiily CounciI docunenls: The
Concepl of DeveIopnenl of NucIeai Ioices unliI 2O1O and The
Ioundalions (Concepl) of Slale IoIicy in lhe Aiea of Defense De3
veIopnenl unliI 2OO5, }uIy-Augusl 1998. These docunenls aie
cIassihed, lul lheii geneiaI lhiusl couId le gIeaned fion nevs3
papei pulIicalions: Sovel ezopasnosli RI ReshiI Sokhianil
Tiekhkonponenlnyi Soslav Slialegicheskikh Yadeinykh SiI, |n-
|crfax dai|q ncus ou||c|in, No. 4, }uIy 3, 1998, Russia lo le Majoi
NucIeai Iovei in 3d MiIIenniun~OfhciaI, |TAR-TASS, }uIy 3,
1998, Ivan Safionov and IIya uIavinov, oiis YeIlsin IodnyaI
Yadeinyi Shchil, Kcnncrsan|-Dai|q, }uIy 4, 1998, Yuii CoIoluyk,
Yadeinoe Razoiuzhenie Neizlezhno, Russ|ii Tc|cgrapn, }uIy 11,
1998, Yuii CoIoluyk, Moskva SkoiiekliiovaIa Svoi Yadeinye Ai3
gunenly, Russ|ii Tc|cgrapn, }uIy 4, 1998, AnaloIi Yuikin, Ieis3
peklivy Voennogo SlioileIslva, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Augusl 5, 1998,
p. 1, 3, OIeg IaIichev, Vpeivpe So Vieneni MiIuykovskikh Re3
foin, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Augusl 18, 1998, p. 1, 2.
252
11. Seigei Ivanovs slalenenl al lhe InleinalionaI Inslilule of
Slialegic Sludies, is found in ''Seigey Ivanov: Teiioiizn Iskhodil
ol Nesosloyavshikhsya Cosudaislv (Seigey Ivanov: IaiIed
Slales aie lhe Souice of Teiioiisn), S|rana.ru |nfcrna|icn Scrticc9
}uIy 13, 2OO4.
12. Vccnnaqa Dc||rina Rcssiis|ci |cdcra|sii (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf
|nc Russian |cdcra|icn), ApiiI 21, 2OOO.
13. V. Iiozoiov, Yadcrncqc Sdcrznitaniqc t Tccrii Princncniqa
RVSN (Nuc|car Dc|crrcncc in |nc Tnccrq cf Usc cf |nc SR|), Moscov,
Russia: Iyoli VeIiki MiIilaiy Acadeny, 1999, p. 19.
14. Ioi delaiIs of lhis neeling, see NikoIai Sokov, ''The ApiiI
1999 Russian Iedeialion Secuiily CounciI Meeling On NucIeai
Weapons, NIS NucIeai IiohIes Dalalase, Monleiey, CA: Cenlei
foi NonpioIifeialion Sludies, Monleiey Inslilule of InleinalionaI
Sludies, }une 1999, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg/do/nisprcfs/ctcr/rf-
sccn|g.n|n.
15. NalionaI Secuiily Concepl of lhe Russian Iedeialion, }an3
uaiy 2OOO, Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn, ApiiI 2OOO.
16. ''AkluaInyye Zadachi Razviliya Vooiuzhennykh SiI RI
(Innediale Tasks of DeveIopnenl of lhe Ained Ioices of lhe
Russian Iedeialion), Oclolei 2, 1OO3.
17. Yuii aIuevski, Speech al lhe Acadeny of MiIilaiy Sci3
ences, }anuaiy 2OO7. The fuII lexl of aIuevskis speech vas pul3
Iished aloul 2 veeks aflei lhe confeience and can le found al lhe
ofhciaI sile of lhe Minisliy of Defense (in Russian), avaiIalIe fion
uuu.ni|.ru/847/852/1153/1342/20922/indcx.sn|n|. See aIso Vadin
SoIovyov, ''Voennaya Refoina OlyavIena essiochnoi (MiIi3
laiy Refoin Has een DecIaied Unending), Nczatisincc Vccnncc
Ooczrcnic, }anuaiy 26, 2OO7.
18. AkluaInyye Zadachi Razviliya Vooiuzhennykh SiI
RI(Innediale Tasks of DeveIopnenl of lhe Ained Ioices of
lhe Russian Iedeialion), p. 43.
19. |oid., p. 24.
253
2O. A. Khiyapin and V. Afanasiev, ''KonlsepluaInye Osnovy
Slialegicheskogo Sdeizhivaniya (ConcepluaI Ioundalions of
Slialegic Deleiience), Vcqcnnaqa Mqs|, }anuaiy 2OO5.
21. AkluaInyye Zadachi Razviliya Vooiuzhennykh SiI RI
(Innediale Tasks of DeveIopnenl of lhe Ained Ioices of lhe
Russian Iedeialion) p. 3O.
22. Yadeinyi Shchil Dasl RI Vienya na Ioiniiovanie No3
vogo OlIika Ainii~RVSN, R|A-Nctcs|i, }une 1O, 2OO9.
23. Vccnnaqa Dc||rina Rcssiis|ci |cdcra|sii (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf
|nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, atai|ao|c frcn uuu.scrf.
gct.ru/dccuncn|s/33.n|n|.
24. Ioi delaiIs, see NikoIai Sokov, Russian Acadeny of MiIi3
laiy Sciences Delales RoIe of NucIeai Weapons in Confeience on
Nev MiIilaiy Docliine, lMD |nsign|s, Maich 2OO7, atai|ao|c frcn
uuu.undinsign|s.ccn/|13/|13_R2_RussianAcadcnq.n|n.
25. Menyaelsya Rossiya, Menyaelsya i ee Voennaya Dok3
liina (As Russia Changes, ils MiIilaiy Docliine Changes Too),
|ztcs|iqa, Oclolei 14, 2OO9.
26. Vcqcnnaqa Dc||rina Rcssiqs|cq |cdcra|sii (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc
cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
scrf.gct.ru/dccuncn|s/33.n|n|.
27. |oid.
28. Inleivievs ly one of lhe aulhois vilh Russian ofhciaIs,
vho iequesled anonynily.
29. RoI Taklicheskogo Yadeinogo Oiuzhiya na Mnogol3
seIevykh AIL Voziaslel~VMI (The RoIe of TaclicaI NucIeai
Weapons on MuIlipuipose Sulnaiines Sel lo Ciov~lhe Navy),
R|A-Nctcs|i, Augusl 23, 2OO9, atai|ao|c frcn uuu.rian.ru/dcfcnsc_
safc|q/20090323/165742858.n|n|.
3O. Maik Iianchelli, Russias Nev NucIeai ChaIIenge lo Lu3
iope, |cndcn Sundaq Tincs, Augusl 17, 2OO8.
254
31. Vadin Sniinov, KaIinigiadskii IIalsdain, Seplenlei
8, 2OO8.
32. R|A-Nctcs|i, Seplenlei 4, 2OO8.
33. OIga Tonashevskaya and Vikloi VoIodin, Do Czhekhii I
IOIshi Lelel NedaIeko, Vrcnqa Nctcs|ci, Augusl 7, 2OO8.
34. See, foi exanpIe, AIexei Ailalov, Deep Culs and de-
AIeiling: A Russian Ieispeclive, p. 321.
35. VyslupIenie CIavy Rossiiskoi DeIegalsii A.I.Anlonova na
3 Sessii IodgolovileInogo Konilela Konfeienlsii po Rassnolieni3
yu Deislviya DNYaO (A Slalenenl of lhe Head of lhe Russian
DeIegalion A.I. Anlonov lo lhe 3id Session of lhe Iiepaialoiy
Connillee of lhe NIT Reviev Confeience), ApiiI 28, 2OO4, Docu3
nenl 927-28-O4-2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nid.ru/Ns-dtor.nsf/10aa
6ac6c80702fc432569ca003612f0/432569d800226387c3256c840046adc
4?OpcnDccuncn|.
36. See Lndnole 2.
37. Iiaklicheskie Shagi Rossiiskoi Iedeialsii OlIasli Yadei3
nogo Razoiuzheniya (IiaclicaI Aclions of lhe Russian Iedeia3
lion in lhe Aiea of NucIeai Disainanenl), Repoil piesenled al
lhe 7lh NIT Reviev Confeience, sIide 13, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
nid.ru/ns-dtor.nsf/10aa6ac6c80702fc432569ca003612f0/526da088cf75
26c3c325700d002f81c7/$||||/Prcscn|a|icn-Russian.pdf.
38. Rossiya IeievypoIniIa IIany po Sokiashcheniyu Yadei3
nogo Oiuzhiya (Russia Has OveifuIhIIed lhe IIan foi Reduc3
lion of NucIeai Weapons), R|A-Nctcs|i, }une 22, 2OO5, atai|ao|c
frcn uuu.rian.ru/pc|i|ics/20050622/40566772.n|n|.
39. To le suie, sone anaIysls have poinled lo slalenenls fion
a fev Russian ofhciaIs lhal appeai lo aigue lhal lhe veapons as3
signed lo Ciound Ioices have nol leen eIininaled. One pioni3
nenl exanpIe is CoIoneI-CeneiaI VIadinii Zaiilski, connandei
of lhe Rockel and AiliIIeiy Ioices, vhich aie pail of lhe Ciound
Ioices (sonelines iefeiied lo as CeneiaI Iuipose Ioices). In
2OO3, Zaiilski decIaied lhal lhe nain deIiveiy assels foi lhe use
of laclicaI nucIeai veapons aie in lhe hands of Rockel and AiliI3
Ieiy Ioices. (OIeg IaIichev, og Voyny v Zapas ne Ukhodil
255
(The Cod of Wai Does Nol Reliie), Vccnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Ku-
ricr, Novenlei 19-25, 2OO3. In sulsequenl pulIicalions, Zaiilski
did nol nenlion laclicaI nucIeai veapons (TNW) al aII oi aIIuded
lo sone nucIeai ioIe foi lhe Ciound Ioices in a geneiaI, nonspe3
cihc vay vilhoul idenlifying nissions oi assels and iefeiiing
lo eaiIiei Iale 199Os niIilaiy nanuaIs oi docliines. See VIadinii
Zaiilski, O Razialolke Novoi Melodiki IIaniiovania Ognevogo
Ioiazheniya Iiolivnika v Opeialsii i ouyu (Tovaid DeveIop3
ing Nev Melhods foi IIanning of Use of Iiiepovei Againsl Ad3
veisaiy in an Opeialion and a CIose Iighling), Vcqcnnaqa Mqs|9
No. 12, 2OO6, NapiavIeniya Soveishenslvovaniya Ioin i Sposo3
lov oevogo Iiineneniya RViA v Olshchevoiskovoi Opeialsii
(ouyu) (Ways lo Lnhance lhe Ways and Means of Conlal
Use of Rockel Ioices and AiliIIeiy in an Opeialion (CIose Con3
lal) of CeneiaI Iuipose Ioices) Vcqcnnaqa Mqs| No. 11, 2OO6, V.
Zaiilski, L.Khaikevich, Oosncnaqa,Ta||i|a (|cunda|icns cf Tac|ics)9
Tanlov, Rusia, 2OO7. Infoinalion suppIied ly lhe Chief of lhe
12lh CUMO, lhe Defense Minisliy agency diieclIy iesponsilIe foi
handIing of aII nucIeai veapons, shouId piolalIy le iegaided as
noie aulhoiilalive. The slalenenls ly Zaiilski couId aIso signify
lhal nucIeai veapons aie sliII iegaided ly a signihcanl secloi of
lhe Russian niIilaiy as desiialIe lolh in leins of nission suppoil
and slalus. His allilude seens lo le in Iine vilh lhe insislence of
Russian Navy ofhciaIs lhal lhey need nucIeai veapons lo suppoil
sone of lheii nissions. AIlhough lhe vaIue of Zaiilskis asseilion
as diiecl evidence vilh iegaid lo lhe slalus of sul-slialegic veap3
ons in Russia shouId piolalIy le queslioned, il ceilainIy leslihes
lo lhe nucIeai ionanlicisn of nany Russian niIilaiy Ieadeis.
4O. Theie is no good vay lo caIcuIale lhe nunleis~lhe 2,OOO
hguie is nosl oflen ciled ly Weslein and Russian nongovein3
nenlaI expeils and is oflen piivaleIy conhined ly Russian of3
hciaIs. If, hovevei, one lakes as a laseIine lhe nunlei piovided
ly AIexei Ailalov foi 1991~21,7OO (AIexei Ailalov, Deep Culs
and de-AIeiling: A Russian Ieispeclive, in Tnc Nuc|car Turning
Pcin|, Washinglon, DC: The iookings Inslilulion Iiess, 1999, p.
32O), lhen lhe 75 peicenl ieduclion ofhciaIIy announced ly Russia
vouId Ieave il vilh 5,4OO vaiheads ly 2OO4~a hguie lhal shouId
le Iovei as disnanlIenenl conlinues.
41. Roleil Noiiis and Hans Kiislensen, NucIeai Nolelook,
8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, May/}une 2OO9, atai|ao|c frcn |nc-
ou||c|in.nc|aprcss.ccn/ccn|cn|/n304370|70137734/fu|||cx|.pdf.
256
42. The NalionaI Resouice Defense CounciI (NRDC) has lia3
dilionaIIy caIcuIaled lolh lhe oveiaII nunlei (2,O5O) and calego3
iies of Russian TNW ly counling nucIeai-capalIe deIiveiy vehi3
cIes. UnIike slialegic veapons, hovevei, lhe ieIalionship lelveen
deIiveiy vehicIes and vaiheads is fai fion diiecl vheie TNW aie
conceined~il is fai fion olvious lhal Russia keeps nucIeai vai3
heads foi aII nucIeai-capalIe deIiveiy vehicIes (neaning lhal lhe
slockpiIe nunlei is Iovei lhan lhe nunlei of deIiveiy vehicIes)
oi, aIleinaliveIy, nighl have seveiaI vaiheads foi each deIiveiy
vehicIe.
43. Il is iionic lhal conhdenliaI inleivievs coIIecled in 1991-92
anong U.S. ofhciaIs alliiluled lhe iejeclion ly Ceoige H. W. ush
of lhe Russian pioposaI lo slail negolialions on a IegaIIy lind3
ing and veiihalIe liealy on TNW lo lhe U.S. Navy, vhich vas
ieIuclanl lo aIIov on-sile inspeclions of ships and sulnaiines lo
conhin lhe alsence of nucIeai vaiheads.
44. Ioi delaiIs, see NikoIai Sokov, Russian S|ra|cgic Mcdcrniza-
|icn. Pas| and |u|urc, Lanhan, MD: Rovnan and LillIeheId, 2OOO,
chap. 1.
45. Iochli Vse Iuskovye Uslanovki RVSN Nakhodyalsya v
Miulnoi Colovnosli, R|A-Nctcs|i, Ieliuaiy 11, 2OO9.
46. Vloioi IoIk MoliInykh 'TopoI-M Zaslupil na Dezhuisl3
vo do Konlsa Coda, R|A-Nctcs|i, Novenlei 18, 2OO9.
47. Il is videIy assuned lhal 3O TopoI-Ms a yeai vouId le lhe
7/(.3#11#7.&%# 6#%#6 /1 *+/,27.&/-<."# 6/'#(. 7/(. *#+ 2-&.<0-,
has leen ieguIaiIy nenlioned ly Ieading hguies of lhe Russian
niIilaiy-indusliiaI conpIex.
48. Rossiya ne udel Naiashchival Iioizvodslvo Rakel v
Ushshcheil SolsiaInyn Iiogiannan (Russia WiII Nol In3
ciease Iioduclion of MissiIes al lhe Lxpense of SociaI Iiogians),
R|A-Nctcs|i, Decenlei 7, 2OO7.
49. Ieivyi Vilse-Iieniei Seigey Ivanov ZayaviI o Neol3
khodinosli Iaiilela Yadeinyih SiI Rossii i SShA (Iiisl Vice-
Iieniei Seigey Ivanov DecIaied lhal Iaiily of Russian and U.S.
NucIeai Ioices is Needed), R|A-Nctcs|i, Decenlei 7, 2OO7.
257
5O. Ioi a iecenl slalenenl lo lhal effecl, see, foi exanpIe, a
slalenenl of lhe nev SRI Connandei Andiey Shvaichenko:
Udainaya Ciuppiiovka RVSN udel na 8O Iiolsenlov Sosloyal
iz Novykh Rakel, R|A-Nctcs|i, Oclolei 12, 2OO9.
51. RI Sozdasl Novuyu TyazheIuyu aIIislicheskuyu Ra3
kelu na Sneny KonpIeksu 'Voyevoda, R|A-Nctcs|i Decenlei
16, 2OO9.
52. Siedslva na RVSN SoslavIyayul OkoIo Tieli Iinansi3
iovaniya Yadeinoi Tiiady, R|A-Nctcs|i, Decenlei 8, 2OO9.
53. Rakelnye KonpIeksy RVSN Sposolny IieodoIeval
Noveishuyu IRO SShA, R|A-Nctcs|i, Seplenlei 1O, 2OO9.
54. Yuii Zailsev, Ol RSM-4O do 'Sinevy, R|A-Nctcs|i9
Maich 11, 2OO9.
55. Iiichinoi Neudachnogo Iuska 'uIavy YavIyaelsya
Konsliukloiskaya Oshilka, R|A-Nctcs|i, }anuaiy 12, 2O1O.
56. Dnilii Lilovkin, uIavu Ispylayul Osenyu, |ztcs|ia9
May 24, 2O1O.
57. 'SoIononov OlyasniI Neudachi 'uIavy, Vccnc-Prc-
nqsn|cnnqi Kuricr, No. 9, 2O1O.
58. Lvinaya DoIya uydgela MO Idel VMI, v Osnovnon
Yadeinyn SiIan~Ivanov, R|A-Nctcs|i, }une 3, 2OO9.
59. Ioi an oveiviev of lhe aspecls of najoi niIilaiy exeicises
ieIevanl lo lhe anaIysis of nucIeai docliine, see NikoIai Sokov,
''Signihcanl MiIilaiy Maneuveis, Iail V of |ssuc 8ricf. Russias
Nuc|car Dcc|rinc, Augusl 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg/c_rc-
scarcn/c3_55a.n|n|.
6O. DaInaya Avialsiya: Ieispeklivy Slialegicheskikh Mash3
in, R|A-Nctcs|i, Decenlei 23, 2OO9.
61. ''Rossiya Ieienapiavil Rakely (Russia WiII Relaigel
MissiIes), Vzg|qad, Ieliuaiy 19, 2OO7.
258
62. R|A-Nctcs|i, }uIy 24, 2OO8
63. |oid., May 27, 2OO8, Vadin Udnanlsev, Iaulina Vokiug
Cianils, VPK, }une 4-1O, 2OO8.
64. Inleiviev Iianskonu CosleIeiadio i Infoinalsionnonu
Agenlslvu IRNA (An Inleiviev vilh lhe Iianian TV, an Infoina3
lion Agency IRNA), Oclolei 16, 2OO7, OfhciaI Welsile of lhe Iies3
idenl of lhe Russian Iedeialion, avaiIalIe fion prcsidcn|.|rcn|in.
ru/|cx|/appcar/2007/10/148471.sn|n|.
65. Ioi delaiIs, see NikoIai Sokov, Moscov Rejecls U.S. Wiil3
len IioposaIs on MissiIe Defense, DovnpIays Nev Iianian Mis3
siIe Tesl, lMD |nsign|s, Ieliuaiy 2OO8.
66. IRO SShA v Nyneshnen Sosloyanii 'Ne VoInuel Ros3
siiskikh Voennykh~Censlal, R|A-Nctcs|i, ApiiI 12, 2O1O.
67. VIadinii Dvoikin, OlIozhennyi Iiolivoiakelnyi Kiizis,
Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, ApiiI 2O, 2O1O.
68. Rossiya Skazhel 'Da IiedIozheniyu NATO po IRO, LsIi
IiedIozhenie Seiyoznie, R|A-Nctcs|i, ApiiI 26, 2O1O.
69. Rossiya i SShA Mogul Sozdal Sovneslnuyu IRO v Lv3
iope Iioliv Iiana, R|A-Nctcs|i, Seplenlei 21, 2OO9.
7O. VIadinii Dvoikin, OlIozhennyi Iiolivoiakelnyi Kiizis,
Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, ApiiI 2O, 2O1O.
71. AIeksei Ailalov, Slialegicheskii SuiieaIizn SonnileI3
nykh Konlseplsii, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Maich 5, 2O1O.
72. VIadinii Ivanov, Vashinglon ShagnuI v ezyadeinyi
Mii, Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, ApiiI 16, 2O1O, Dnilii
Ruyiikov, .IIus ysliyi CIolaInyi Udai, Vccnncc-Prcnqsn|cn-
nqi Kuricr, No. 1O, 2O1O.
73. The 1995 Iack iunl incidenl, vhen a singIe Noive3
gian ieseaich iockel liiggeied a faIse aIain in lhe Russian sliale3
gic connand and conlioI syslen, seives as a ienindei lhal lhis
concein is nol puie inaginalion: as il luined oul Ialei, lhe iockel
259
cIoseIy hl one of hisl sliike scenaiios luiIl inlo lhe eaiIy vaining
syslen. Ioi delaiIs, see NikoIai Sokov, Can Noivay Tiiggei a
NucIeai Wai` Noles on lhe Russian Connand and ConlioI Sys3
len. IONARS IoIicy Meno No. 24, 1997.
74. AIeksandi Khianshikhin, Slialegicheskie Vooiuzheni3
ya ne Ianalseya ol Ugiozy Voennogo Napadeniya dIya Rossii,
Vccnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Kuricr, No. 11, 2O1O.
75. The Iskandei-L vas deveIoped vilh a iange of 28O kn
lo avoid lhe iesliiclions of lhe MissiIe TechnoIogy ConlioI Re3
gine (MTCR)~lhe nuIliIaleiaI aiiangenenl lhal seeks lo iesliicl
expoils of nissiIes alIe lo caiiy a 5OO kn payIoad lo a dislance
of 3OO kn oi noie. The Iellei L in lhe nissiIes nane denoles
lhe expoil vaiianl. See Nikila Ieliov, Asinneliichnyi Ol3
vel (An Asynneliic Response), S|rana.Ru, Ieliuaiy 16, 2OO7,
NikoIai Ioioskov, Lviopa pod IiilseIon (Luiope in Sighls),
Vrcnqa Nctcs|ci, Ieliuaiy 16, 2OO7.
76. See lhe Addiess lo lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy ly Iiesidenl of
Russia Dnilii Medvedev on Novenlei 5, 2OO8, atai|ao|c frcn prcs-
idcn|.|rcn|in.ru/|cx|/appcars/2008/11/208749.sn|n|.
77. Veia Silnina, Voina Mozhel Vspykhnul Vnezapno, Vrc-
nqa Nctcs|ci, Seplenlei 29, 2OO8.
78. Vikloi Myasnikov, CLONASS DIya Vsekh, Nczatisincc
Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, }une 4, 2O1O.
79. Ailui Iinov, Rakelnyi Toig na AIyaske (A MissiIe
Tiade-off), Oocrcna i 8czcpasncs|, Augusl 3O, 2OO6.
8O. Minoloiony: Iii Neolkhodinosli Rossiya Mozhel Vyili
iz Dogovoia po RSMD (Minisliy of Defense: If Necessaiy, Rus3
sia CouId Wilhdiav fion lhe INI Tiealy), R|A Nctcs|i, Augusl
25, 2OO6, Lkspeil: Rossiya Mozhel Vyili Iz Dogovoia po RSMD v
Odnosloionnen Ioiyadke (Lxpeil: Russia CouId UniIaleiaIIy
Wilhdiav fion lhe INI Tiealy), Inleifax, Augusl 25, 2OO6.
81. Rossiya Mozhel Vyili iz Dogovoia po Rakelan Siednei
DaInosli (Russia CouId Wilhdiav fion lhe Inleinediale-Range
MissiIes Tiealy), S|rana.Ru, Ieliuaiy 15, 2OO7, Nikila Ieliov,
Asinneliichnyi Olvel (An Asynneliic Response), S|rana.
Ru, Ieliuaiy 16, 2OO7, NikoIai Ioioskov, Lviopa pod IiilseIon
(Luiope in Sighls), Vrcnqa Nctcs|ci, Ieliuaiy 16, 2OO7, Vikloi
Myasnikov, Asinneliichnyi Olvel naiden (An Asynneliic
Response Has een Iound), Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 16,
2OO7, IIya Azai and Dnilii Vinogiadov, Olvel Siednini Rakela3
ni (A Response vilh Mediun MissiIes), Gazc|a.Ru, Ieliuaiy
15, 2OO7.
82. SYaS Rossii: Naiashchivanie Voznozhnoslei po Iieo3
doIeiyu Iiolivoiakelnoi Oloiony (Russias Slialegic Rockel
Ioices: Lnhancing lhe CapaliIily lo Ieneliale MissiIe Defenses),
Vccnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Kricr, Maich 8-14, 2OO6.
261
6L4:=82 `
643OL= /8=9885 !6R774 45? 6L42R/?-!<
=L8 2874=-;5!L-: /8=9885
6;5M85=-;547 45? 5367842
64:4/-7-=-8! -5 23!!-45 Q-7-=42R
=L;3OL=
?$.'%E O0*#%
-5=2;?36=-;5
Russian secuiily poIicies and niIilaiy pIans aie
undeigoing lhe nosl piofound sel of changes of any
peiiod since lhe coIIapse of lhe Soviel Union. In sone
vays, lhis is lhe lesl of lines foi lhe Russian niIilaiy.
Moscov has lhe foilune of a goveinnenl in Wash3
inglon connilled lo pushing lhe iesel lullon in
U.S.-Russian ieIalions. The Olana adninislialion has
nade il cIeai lhal il inlends lo lake Russian inleiesls
and opinions seiiousIy in eveiylhing fion lhe depIoy3
nenl of nissiIe defenses lo lhe inposing of nev Unil3
ed Nalions (UN) sanclions on Iian. A nev Slialegic
Ains Reduclion Tiealy (START) agieenenl has leen
signed lhal aIIovs Russia lo nake inevilalIe ieduc3
lions in ils slialegic nucIeai foices undei lhe guise
of lhe fuilheiance of slialegic paiily vilh lhe Uniled
Slales. If Russian souices aie lo le liusled, lhe U.S.
Coveinnenl connilled lo Iiniling ils depIoynenls of
nissiIe defenses in Luiope. The pace of lhe Noilh Al3
Ianlic Tiealy Oiganizalions (NATO) easlvaid expan3
sion has leen sIoved, possilIy haIled foi good. The
Russian Navys Iease on lhe navaI lase al SevaslopoI
vas exlended foi an addilionaI 25 yeais. AII in aII, il
has leen a good yeai foi lhe Russian niIilaiy. Il nighl
262
le assuned lhal Russia has nevei leen in a lellei po3
(&.&/- ./ ,#%#6/* 0 -#' (#72+&.5 *0+.-#+("&* '&." ."#
Wesl oi lo feeI noie secuie in geneiaI.
Yel, lhis is lhe line vhen lhe Russian goveinnenl
has chosen lo undeilake an anlilious, even iadicaI,
liansfoinalion of ils convenlionaI and nucIeai foices.
The pulIicalion of lolh a nev NalionaI Secuiily Slial3
egy (NSS) and MiIilaiy Docliine piovides lhe poIicy
foundalion, aIleil sonevhal schizophienic, vhich
juslihes, even denands, lhe ciealion of niIilaiy capa3
liIilies connensuiale vilh Russias seIf-dehned sla3
lus as a najoi gIolaI povei. Russian Iiesidenl Dniliy
Medvedev has nade a connilnenl lo lhe niIilaiy foi
8/+# 8/-#5 0-, 1/+ 0- 0++05 /1 -#' '#0*/-( (5(.#8(
lhal is eye-valeiing in leins of ils lieadlh and cosl.
IIans have leen ailicuIaled ly lhe chiefs of lhe najoi
seivices inlended lo addiess lhe videIy iecognized
piolIens of scIeiolic connand and conlioI sliucluies,
olsoIele peisonneI poIicies, and aging equipnenl.
The palh lefoie Russias Ieadeis nay veII le chai3
acleiized as lhal lelveen ScyIIa and Chaiyldis. As
Honeis epic, Tnc Odqsscq, leIIs lhe laIe, lhe chaIIenge
is lo chail a couise lelveen lvo dangeis. The piol3
Ien is lhal noving avay fion one dangei causes an
inciease in lhe lhieal posed ly lhe olhei. In lhe viev
of Russian Ieadeis, Moscov cannol le loo acconno3
daling and foilhconing, eilhei poIilicaIIy oi niIilai3
iIy, vilhoul iisking lhe appeaiance of leing loo veak.
A Russia lhal is veak viII have ils inleiesls ignoied
oi even undeinined. Al lhe sane line, if Russia is
loo leIIigeienl, il iisks a confionlalion vilh slales in3
conpaialIy sliongei lhan il is, lheiely ieveaIing hov
liuIy veak il is.
The souice of Russias Honeiic piolIen is ils
deleininalion lo asseil a posilion in gIolaI affaiis
263
7/8*6#.#65 /2. /1 *+/*/+.&/- ./ &.( #7/-/8&79 */6&.&3
caI, lechnoIogicaI, denogiaphic, oi niIilaiy silualion.
Moieovei, ils piincipaI adveisaiy is lhe nosl povei3
fuI econonic and niIilaiy aIIiance in hunan hisloiy.
Russia nusl do vhalevei il can lo asseil ils posilion as
an equaI, iecognizing lhal il Iacks lhe neans (vilh lhe
exceplion, peihaps, of ils nucIeai aisenaI) lo enfoice
ils cIain of equaIily. As one olseivei desciiled Rus3
sias diIenna:
The Russian Iedeialion is ceilainIy nol in an envialIe
silualion vhen il cones lo foieign oi secuiily poIicy.
Devoid of signihcanl aIIiances, vilh an econonic
oulpul conpaialIe lo lhal of Iiance, and a slandaid
of Iiving lhal is fai leIov lhal in Luiope al Iaige, il
nusl hnd lhe neans lo secuie a huge leiiiloiy and
oveiexlended loideis, end lhe vioIenl conicls in lhe
Noilhein Caucasus, and nainlain lhe slialegic nucIe3
ai laIance vilh lhe U.S. Al lhe sane line, lhe Russian
Ieadeiship is Iaying cIain lo acl as a hegenon in lhe
posl-Soviel space and as a gieal povei on lhe inlei3
nalionaI slage. The queslion is vhelhei Russia has lhe
#7/-/8&79 8&6&.0+59 0-, */6&.&706 */.#-.&06 ./ +#(/6%#
secuiily issues successfuIIy and lo lack up ils inleina3
lionaI anlilions. The fundanenlaI piolIen lo le ie3
soIved ly lhe counliys foieign and secuiily poIicy is
lhe dispaiily lelveen aspiialions and iesouices. Thal
diIenna is fuilhei aggiavaled ly lhe inleinalionaI
hnanciaI ciisis and pIunneling eneigy piices, vhich
have hil lhe Russian econony haid.
1
Iiofessoi AIexei ogaluiov of lhe Moscov Insli3
lule foi InleinalionaI Secuiily Sludies desciiled lhe
piolIen as Medvedevs diIenna. B- ."# /-# "0-,9
Russia vouId piefei nol lo ieluin lo a poIicy of con3
fionlalion, on lhe olhei hand, lhe KienIin cannol jusl
sland ly and valch lhe Uniled Slales and NATO pui3
264
sue lheii poIicy of niIilaiy supeiioiily. The Russian
soIulion, ieecled in lhe nev NSS, is lo puisue a lvo
liack poIicy:
. . . vilhoul inleiiupling lhe diaIogue vilh lhe U.S. on
slialegic issues, liy lo concenliale iesouices in oidei
./ 7+#0.# ."# 70*07&.5 1/+ 0 */6&.&706 0-, ,&*6/80.&7
counleiveighl lo NATO, vhiIe laking aII necessaiy
sleps lo pievenl lhe possiliIily of lhe neuliaIizalion of
Russias aliIily lo effecliveIy confionl even lheoieli3
70665 *+#,&7.#, 0..#8*.( ./ ,&7.0.# 7/-,&.&/-( 2-,#+
lhe lhieal of foice.
2
In oidei lo undeisland lhe ieIalionship lelveen
convenlionaI and nucIeai capaliIilies in Russian niIi3
laiy lhoughl, il is necessaiy lo appieciale lhe exlenl
of lhe diIenna Russian poIilicaI and niIilaiy Ieadeis
have ciealed foi lhenseIves. The inleinalionaI en3
viionnenl is hIIed vilh naIevoIenl foices inlenl on
lhe dininulion of Russia and lhe undeinining of ils
nalionaI inleiesls. These adveisaiies nusl le diieclIy
and aggiessiveIy counleied, piefeialIy vilh nonniIi3
laiy neans. Hovevei, Russia cannol ieIy enliieIy on
(27" 8#0-(9 *0+.&7260+65 0( &.( 0,%#+(0+&#( 0+# &-.#-.
on achieving oveivheIning niIilaiy supeiioiily and
undeinining lhe slialegic slaliIily achieved lhiough
ains conlioI agieenenls in lhe Iale 2Olh cenluiy. To
le secuie, Russia nusl deveIop a nodein, IaigeIy non-
nucIeai niIilaiy vhiIe ielaining unliI lhe day lhal goaI
is achieved a nucIeai capaliIily lhal can delei lolh lhe
convenlionaI and nucIeai nighl of ils opponenls.
The U.S. Diiecloi of NalionaI InleIIigence olseived
lhal Russia conlinues lo ieIy on ils nucIeai deleiienl
and ielaIialoiy capaliIily lo counlei lhe peiceived
lhieal fion lhe Uniled Slales and NATO. Ioi lhe pasl
seveiaI yeais, Moscov has aIso leen slienglhening
265
ils convenlionaI niIilaiy foice lo nake il a ciedilIe
foieign poIicy insliunenl, lolh lo signaI ils poIilicaI
iesuigence and lo asseil ils doninance ovei neigh3
loiing slales Iike Ceoigia. Moscov has acliveIy en3
gaged in foieign niIilaiy coopeialion vilh counliies
such as China and VenezueIa, in pail lo ienind lhe
Uniled Slales and olheis of Russias gIolaI niIilaiy
ieIevance.
3
This lendency has leen ieecled in scenes
nol seen in sone 2 decades: Russian suls off lhe U.S.
7/0(.9 8car lonleis penelialing NATO aiispace, and
Russian vaiships iepealing lhe oId Soviel-eia Caiil3
lean ciuise~lhis line lo VenezueIa.
Recenl niIilaiy denonslialions cannol hide lhe
facl lhal Russias convenlionaI niIilaiy slands on lhe
piecipice of iiieIevance. AInosl 2 decades of undei3
funding has iesuIled in olsoIele equipnenl, inad3
equale nainlenance, pooi liaining, and Iov noiaIe.
In lhis sane peiiod, lheie has leen a ievoIulion in
niIilaiy capaliIilies cenleied on lhe expIoilalion of in3
foinalion lechnoIogies. The iesuIl has leen an oidei-
of-nagnilude inpiovenenl in lhe IelhaIily and op3
eialionaI effecliveness of convenlionaI niIilaiy foices.
This is a ievoIulion in vhich lhe Russian niIilaiy has
yel lo pailicipale. Whalevei nay le lhe KienIins an3
lilions foi lhe Russian niIilaiy of 2O2O and leyond,
lhe decIine of lhe Russian defense indusliiaI lase
neans lheie is IillIe chance of Russia leing alIe lo
ieach lhose oljeclives.
The IikeIihood lhal Russia can achieve ils goaI of
a lhoioughIy nodein convenlionaI capaliIily, one
alIe lo lake on lhe Wesl in a iegionaI conicl ly 2O2O
is fancifuI al lesl. The KienIin is Iefl, lheiefoie, vilh
lvo slialegic oplions. One is lo seek lo consliain Wesl3
ein and pailicuIaiIy U.S. niIilaiy advances lhiough
puisuil of an aggiessive ains conlioI agenda. The
266
olhei is lo liy and ieluin lo lhe pasl, focusing lhe U.S.-
Russian ieIalionship on nucIeai issues. In oidei lo do
lhis, Russia nusl lake lhe necessaiy sleps lo nainlain
and nodeinize ils nucIeai aisenaIs, lolh slialegic and
laclicaI. UnfoilunaleIy, on lhis palh Iies confionlalion.
589 !8632-=R !=24=8OR 45? ?;6=2-58!
The pulIicalion of a nev NSS and MiIilaiy Doc3
liine sel lhe slage foi Russias Honeiic chaIIenge.
These docunenls sel oul a foinidalIe sel of secuiily
chaIIenges confionling Russia. In pailicuIai, lolh
,/728#-.( &,#-.&15 0( ."# 8/(. (#+&/2( ."+#0. 073
livilies and lehaviois ly foieign nalions and gioup3
ings~iead NATO~lo cieale a condilion of poIilicaI
and niIilaiy supeiioiily ovei Russia. In essence, lhe
couise lelveen ScyIIa and Chaiyldis is lhal lelveen
diffeienl nodes of conpelilion, nol lelveen conpeli3
lion and coopeialion.
The nev Russian NSS offeis sonelhing foi eveiy3
one. The Iisl of polenliaI dangeis and chaIIenges is
Iong, lioad, and exlieneIy vaiied. ul vilh iespecl
./ 8&6&.0+5 ."+#0.(9 ."# 1/72( /1 7/-7#+- &( -/. '&." &+3
ieguIai vaifaie oi so-caIIed iogue slales, lul ialhei
lhe lehavioi of lhe Uniled Slales and ils aIIies. In pai3
licuIai, lhe NSS idenlihes lhe lhieal as lhal posed ly
lhe diive of sone counliies lo achieve oveivheIning
8&6&.0+5 (2*#+&/+&.59 ./ 7+#0.# -#' .5*#( /1 '#0*/-(
and lhe neans lo engage in nev foins of vaifaie, and
lhe inpacl on Russian secuiily of allenpls lo oveiluin
exisling inleinalionaI agieenenls.
The lhieals of niIilaiy secuiily aie: lhe poIicy of a
nunlei of Ieading foieign counliies ained al achiev3
ing oveivheIning supeiioiily in lhe niIilaiy heId,
267
especiaIIy in lhe slialegic nucIeai foices, lhiough lhe
deveIopnenl of high-piecision, infoinalion and olhei
high-lech neans of vaifaie, slialegic veapons in non3
nucIeai foin, lhe foinalion of a uniIaleiaI gIolaI nis3
siIe defense syslen and lhe niIilaiizalion of Lailhs
(*07# #-%&+/-8#-. ."0. 7/26, 6#0, ./ 0 -#' 0+8( +07#9
as veII as lhe spiead of nucIeai, chenicaI, lioIogicaI
lechnoIogy, lhe pioduclion of veapons of nass de3
sliuclion oi lheii conponenls and deIiveiy syslens.
The negalive inpacl on lhe niIilaiy secuiily of lhe
Russian Iedeialion and ils aIIies exaceilaled ly a
depailuie fion inleinalionaI agieenenls on ains
6&8&.0.&/- 0-, +#,27.&/-9 0( '#66 0( 07.&/-( 0&8#, 0.
vioIaling lhe slaliIily of syslens of goveinnenl and
niIilaiy conlioI, nissiIe vaining, space conlioI, lhe
funclioning of slialegic nucIeai foices, sloiage siles,
nucIeai veapons, nucIeai eneigy, nucIeai and cheni3
caI indusliies, and olhei polenliaIIy dangeious ol3
jecls.
4
!"&( 1/+8260.&/- &( +#*#0.#, 068/(. #-,6#((65 &-
Russian poIilicaI-niIilaiy docunenls and ailicIes ly
secuiily anaIysls. Il ieecls lhe lasic ieaIily lhal lhe
Russian Ieadeiship sees ils secuiily veiy nuch as a
funclion of lhe aliIily lo neuliaIize an evei-piesenl
lhieal posed ly lhe Wesl. One exanpIe is a iepoil in
."# Guardian on ienaiks ly Russias Minislei of De3
fense, AnaloIy Seidyukov:
Today, Russias defense ninislei, AnaloIy Seidyu3
kov, said lhe voiId silualion neanl lhe IikeIihood of
ained conicls and lheii polenliaI dangei foi Russia
vas iising. The niIilaiy-poIilicaI silualion is chaiac3
leiized ly lhe U.S. Ieadeiships desiie . lo expand ils
niIilaiy piesence and lhal of ils aIIies in iegions adja3
cenl lo Russia, he decIaied.
268
Aneiica vas acliveIy liying lo sleaI eneigy and
nineiaI iesouices in cenliaI Asia and olhei posl-Sovi3
el counliies on Russias loideis, he conpIained, add3
ing lhal lhe U.S. vas acliveIy suppoiling piocesses
ained al ousling Russia fion lhe aiea of ils liadilionaI
inleiesls.
5
!"# #)&(.#-.&06 -0.2+# /1 ."# ."+#0. 8#0-( ."0. &.
can onIy le counleied ly a condilion nol neieIy of
niIilaiy paiily, lul of alsoIule Weslein vuIneialiIily.
Moscov cannol conceive of ils secuiily in leins olh3
#+ ."0- ."/(# /1 0- 0,%#+(0+&06 +#60.&/-("&* '&." ."#
Uniled Slales and NATO. Thal ieIalionship is lased
on lolh gIolaI and iegionaI deleiience and vhal Mos3
cov caIIs slialegic slaliIily - vheie lolh sides aie
Iocked inlo lhe CoId Wai ieIalionship of nuluaIIy as3
suied desliuclion al lhe gIolaI and iegionaI IeveI. Ioi
Russia lo le secuie, nol onIy nusl lhe Uniled Slales
nol le alIe lo defend ilseIf againsl nissiIe lhieals,
neilhei can Luiope, foi lhen Russia cannol inlinidale
il ly lhe lhieal of nissiIe sliikes. Russia sliII leIieves
."0. ."# 7/-,&.&/- /1 &.( (#72+&.5 &( ."# &-(#72+&.5 /1 &.(
neighlois and pailneis. ConsequenlIy, lo secuie ilseIf,
Russia nusl have lhe iighl lo supeivise lhe Iinils of
Luiopes defense aclivily, lheiely ievising lhe sellIe3
nenls of 1989-91.
6

Much of lhe NSS focuses on lhe aclions lo ieveise
Russias sociaI, econonic, and lechnoIogicaI infeiioi3
ily. Such sleps aie necessaiy ceilainIy lo inpiove lhe
veIfaie of lhe Russian peopIe. ul lhey aie vilaI aIso
lo lhe KienIins goaI of eslalIishing Russia as a gieal
povei and ciealing lhe condilions lo suppoil a lians3
foinalion of lhe Russian niIilaiy.
The nev Russian MiIilaiy Docliine, signed on Iel3
iuaiy 5, 2O1O, exlends lhe vision of lhe lhieal conlained
269
in lhe NSS and liings il cIose lo hone. AIlhough il ac3
knovIedges lhal lhe iisk of Iaige-scaIe convenlionaI/
-276#0+ '0+ "0( ,#76&-#,9 ."# /%#+066 #).#+-06 ."+#0.
lo Russian secuiily has inlensihed. The Iisl of exleinaI
niIilaiy dangeis incIudes:
- The desiie lo endov lhe foice polenliaI of
NATO vilh gIolaI funclions caiiied oul in
%&/60.&/- /1 ."# -/+8( /1 &-.#+-0.&/-06 60' 0-,
lo nove lhe niIilaiy infiasliucluie of NATO
nenlei counliies cIosei lo lhe loideis of lhe
Russian Iedeialion, incIuding ly expanding
lhe lIoc,
- The allenpls lo deslaliIize lhe silualion in in3
dividuaI slales and iegions and lo undeinine
slialegic slaliIily,
- The depIoynenl (luiIdup) of lioop conlingenls
of foieign slales (gioups of slales) on lhe lei3
iiloiies of slales conliguous vilh lhe Russian
A#,#+0.&/- 0-, &.( 066&#( 0-, 06(/ &- 0,407#-.
valeis,
- The ciealion and depIoynenl of slialegic nis3
siIe defense syslens undeinining gIolaI sla3
liIily and vioIaling lhe eslalIished coiieIalion
/1 1/+7#( &- ."# -276#0+38&((&6# (*"#+#9 0-,
aIso lhe niIilaiizalion of oulei space and lhe
depIoynenl of slialegic non-nucIeai piecision
veapon syslens,
- TeiiiloiiaI cIains againsl lhe Russian Iedeia3
.&/- 0-, &.( 066&#( 0-, &-.#+1#+#-7# &- ."#&+ &-.#+3
naI affaiis, and,
- The pioIifeialion of veapons of nass desliuc3
lion, nissiIes, and nissiIe lechnoIogies, and
lhe inciease in lhe nunlei of slales possessing
nucIeai veapons.
7
27O
The MiIilaiy Docliine piovides a vision of fuluie
conicls lhal fiankIy diffeis IillIe fion viilings pio3
duced ly lhe Soviel niIilaiy sone 2 decades ago. Iu3
luie conicls viII invoIve lhe nassed use of veapons
syslens lased on nev physicaI piincipIes lhal aie
conpaialIe lo nucIeai veapons in effecliveness, lhe
expanded use of aii space and oulei space, inlensihed
infoinalion vaifaie, ieduced vaining line lased on
an adveisaiys piepaialion lo conducl niIilaiy opeia3
lions, and, an inciease in lhe iesponsiveness of con3
nand and conlioI syslens. The chaiacleiislic fealuies
of fuluie niIilaiy conicls viII le lhe enpIoynenl of
foices lased on speed, naneuveialiIily, and piecision
laigeling. A vide vaiiely of nev lechnoIogies viII le
seen on lhese fuluie lallIeheIds leyond jusl piecision-
guided veapons incIuding eIeclionagnelic, Iasei, and
infiasound veaponiy, conpulei conlioIIed syslens,
diones and aulononous naiiline ciafl, and guided
oi iololic veisions of nanned pIalfoins.
8
Theie had leen indicalions lhal lhe nev MiIilaiy
Docliine vouId expand fuilhei lhe ioIe of Russian
nucIeai veapons in fuluie conicls. In an inleiviev
'&." |ztcs|ia, NikoIay Ialiushev, lhe secielaiy of lhe
Russian Secuiily CounciI, vas quoled saying lhal in
lhe MiIilaiy Docliine, We have coiiecled lhe condi3
lions foi use of nucIeai veapons lo iesisl aggiession
vilh convenlionaI foices nol onIy in Iaige-scaIe vais,
lul aIso in iegionaI oi even a IocaI one. Moieovei, he
venl on Theie is aIso a nuIlipIe-oplions piovision
foi use of nucIeai veapons depending on lhe silualion
and inlenlions of lhe polenliaI eneny. . . . In a silua3
lion ciilicaI foi nalionaI secuiily, ve donl excIude a
pievenlive nucIeai sliike al lhe aggiessoi.
9
As pulIished, lhe MiIilaiy Docliine does nol ex3
.#-, ."# +/6# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( &-./ ."# 0+#0 /1 6/706
271
vais. Hovevei, given expiessions of concein nade
eaiIiei in lhal docunenl iegaiding lhe polenliaI foi
fuluie conicls lo invoIve deslaliIizing connand
0-, 7/-.+/69 -276#0+ '#0*/-( (&.#(9 0-, /."#+ 7+&.&706
goveinnenl assels, lhe poinl al vhich a iegionaI vai
vouId pIace lhe exislence of lhe slale al iisk, lheiely
vaiianling a nucIeai iesponse, is anliguous, al lesl.
NucIeai veapons viII ienain an inpoilanl facloi
foi pievenling lhe oullieak of nucIeai niIilaiy con3
icls and niIilaiy conicls invoIving lhe use of con3
venlionaI neans of allack (a Iaige-scaIe vai oi iegionaI
vai). In lhe evenl of lhe oullieak of a niIilaiy conicl
invoIving lhe uliIizalion of convenlionaI neans of al3
lack (a Iaige-scaIe vai oi iegionaI vai) and inpeiiI3
ing lhe veiy exislence of lhe slale, lhe possession of
nucIeai veapons nay Iead lo such a niIilaiy conicl
deveIoping inlo a nucIeai niIilaiy conicl. The NSS
and MiIilaiy Docliine pul enoinous piessuie on lhe
Russian niIilaiy lo achieve acioss-lhe-loaid inpiove3
nenls in oiganizalion, capaliIilies, opeialions, and
peisonneI. Il is nol cIeai lhal lhe niIilaiy and ils sup3
poiling indusliiaI lase viII le alIe lo neel lhose chaI3
Ienges.
=L8 7-Q-=! ;@ 23!!-45 6;5M85=-;547
@;268 28!=236=32-5O
Russian Ieadeis have Iong iecognized lhe need
foi conpiehensive sliucluiaI iefoins of lhe niIilaiy.
Since lhe eaiIy 199Os, seveiaI allenpls al iefoin have
iun afouI of a conlinalion of inslilulionaI iesislance,
a Iack of funds, lhe decIine of lhe Russian defense
indusliiaI lase, and ieciuilnenl and ielenlion piol3
Iens. The NSS and MiIilaiy Docliine lolh enphasize
272
lhe inpoilance of a liansfoinalion of lhe Russian
niIilaiy.
The nain lask of nalionaI defense in lhe nediun
lein is lhe liansilion lo a quaIilaliveIy nev Iook of lhe
Ained Ioices of lhe Russian Iedeialion lo lhe consei3
valion polenliaI of lhe slialegic nucIeai foices ly in3
pioving lhe oiganizalionaI and slaff sliucluie and sys3
len of leiiiloiiaI-lased lioops and foices, incieasing
lhe nunlei of unils of peinanenl ieadiness, as veII as
inpiove lhe opeialionaI and liaining, oiganizalion of
inleispecies inleiaclion foices and foices.
1O

Iiesidenl Medvedev peisonaIIy connilled his
adninislialion lo a conpIele oveihauI of lhe Russian
ained foices.
A guaianleed nucIeai deleiienl syslen foi vaiious
niIilaiy and poIilicaI ciicunslances nusl le piovided
ly 2O2O. . . . We nusl ensuie aii supeiioiily, piecision
sliikes on Iand and sea laigels, and lhe lineIy depIoy3
nenl of lioops. We aie pIanning lo Iaunch Iaige-scaIe
pioduclion of vaiships, piinaiiIy, nucIeai sulna3
iines vilh ciuise nissiIes and nuIli-puipose allack
sulnaiines. . . . We viII aIso luiId an aii and space
defense nelvoik.
11
The veakness of Russias convenlionaI foices has
nol leen a seciel lo anyone. ul lhe expeiiences of lhe
Russian-Ceoigian conicl appeai lo have given lhe
diive foi iefoin a nev inpelus. The pooi peifoinance
of Russian foices vas an appaienl shock lo lhe Kien3
Iin Ieadeiship. The conicl ieveaIed a hosl of piolIens
ianging fion olsoIescenl equipnenl, an inaliIily lo
opeiale duiing lhe nighl, aichaic infoinalion syslens,
a Iack of piecision sliike capaliIilies, connunicalions
10&62+#(9 *//+ /+ -/-#)&(.#-. 7/8*2.#+ (5(.#8(9 &-0,3
273
equale connand and conlioI capaliIilies, lad liain3
ing, inexilIe oi nonexislenl Iogislics, and nanpovei
piolIens.
12
LquaIIy inpoilanl, lhe Ceoigian expeii3
ence undeinined a nixed consciipl-conliacl Ainy.
>( ?#(.#+- 8&6&.0+&#( "0, ,&(7/%#+#, ,#70,#( #0+6&#+9
0 8&)#, 1/+7# /1 *+/1#((&/-06( 0-, 7/-(7+&*.( '0( /-
laIance exlieneIy expensive vhiIe pioviding IillIe of
vaIue.
13
!"# 7#-.+06 *2+*/(# /1 ."# 8&6&.0+5 +#1/+8( &( ./
inpiove lhe aliIily of Russias ained foices lo engage
successfuIIy in ieIaliveIy snaII conicls aIong lhal
counliys peiipheiy. If lhese iefoins aie successfuI,
Russia vouId le alIe lo pIace Iessei ieIiance on ils
nucIeai foices excepl lo delei Iaige-scaIe conicls.
The pulIicIy slaled goaI of lhe iefoin is lo cieale a
conpacl ainy of conslanl ieadiness, designed nainIy
lo hghl IocaI and iegionaI conicls. Al lhe sane line,
Russia viII nainlain ils slialegic nucIeai foices as a
safeguaid in lhe evenl of a lig vai. The counliys
nucIeai capaliIily shouId guaianlee lhe possiliIily of
inicling unacceplalIe danage on any aggiessoi oi
coaIilion of aggiessois.
14
The design of vhal sone aie caIIing Russias Nev
ModeI Ainy vas announced ly Defense Minislei
Seidyukov on Oclolei 14, 2OO8. The nain eIenenls of
lhe iefoin veie lo incIude lhe foIIoving:
- A cul in lhe lolaI nunlei of niIilaiy peison3
neI fion 1,13O,OOO lo one niIIion, incIuding a
ieduclion in lhe lolaI nunlei of ofhceis fion
355,OOO lo jusl 15O,OOO. The CeneiaI Slaff vouId
le pailicuIaiIy affecled, vilh 13,5OO of ils 22,OOO
peisonneI posilions sIaled foi eIininalion.
- Renaining ofhceis and conliacl soIdieis viII
see a signihcanl pay inciease ovei lhe nexl 4
yeais.
274
- Hencefoilh, aII niIilaiy unils viII le consideied
peinanenl ieadiness unils and viII le fuIIy
slaffed vilh lolh ofhceis and enIisled soIdieis.
- The exisling 14O,OOO nonconnissioned ofhceis
(NCOs) viII le iepIaced ly 85,OOO piofessionaI
seigeanls liained ovei lhe nexl 3 yeais.
- The foui-lieied connand sliucluie viII le ie3
*607#, '&." 0 ."+##3.&#+#, (.+27.2+#9 '&." ."#
liigade seiving as lhe lasic unil.
- The dislandnenl of 23 divisions and 12 lii3
gades, and lhe ciealion of 39 fuIIy nanned,
conlal ieady aII-ains liigades.
- The niIilaiys Main InleIIigence Diiecloiale
(CRU) viII le cul in size and suloidinaled di3
ieclIy lo lhe civiIian defense ninislei.
- The consoIidalion of niIilaiy inslilules and
nedicaI faciIilies.
15
The lo-le-foined conlal liigades nusl le
equipped vilh nodeinized oi upgiaded equipnenl.
Shiinking lhe size of lhe giound foices viII iesuIl in
an excess of equipnenl. UnfoilunaleIy, viiluaIIy aII of
il is aging and even olsoIele. Moieovei, lhe Ciound
Ioices Iack lhe equipnenl and syslens in such aieas
as Iogislics, inleIIigence, nedicaI caie, and engineei3
ing needed lo suppoil a pioposed noliIe, high-iead3
iness foice.
Resliucluiing of lhe giound foices is onIy one
lhiead in a conpIex veave of aclions lhal nusl le lak3
en in oidei lo cieale a nodein Russian convenlionaI
niIilaiy. SiniIai inilialives have leen decIaied in lhe
Aii Ioice and Navy. Aii Ioice Connandei in Chief,
CoIoneI CeneiaI AIexandei ZeIin, announced a seiies
of iefoins in his Seivice incIuding a nev connand
sliucluie, consoIidaled Iogislics, and nodeinized
275
veapons. The nunlei of connands and aii lases vas
lo le diaslicaIIy ieduced. Ainy avialion and aii lians3
poilalion assels veie leing inlegialed inlo lhe nev
sliucluie.
16
The nev Aii Ioice sliucluie appeais lo le
designed lo paiaIIeI lhe iefoins in lhe Ciound Ioices
so as lo aIIov lhe ciealion of a liuIy joinl capaliIily.
17
OiganizalionaI iefoins viII le neaningIess unIess
lhe Aii Ioice is alIe lo oveicone an aInosl 2O-yeai
piocuienenl hoIiday. No Iess a hguie lhan Iiisl Dep3
uly Defense Minislei Ainy-CeneiaI NikoIai Makaiov
iecenlIy vained lhal lhe Russian Aii Ioice vas nol
piocuiing sufhcienl nunleis of nev nodein aiiciafl
and has fevei seivicealIe aiiciafl, nanned ly insuf3
hcienlIy conlal-liained piIols, vho aie incapalIe of
conducling nodein-eia conlal opeialions.
18
Ioinei Chief of lhe Aii Ioice CeneiaI AnaloIy Ko3
inukov painled an even noie disnaI picluie of con3
dilions in lhe Aii Ioice. Accoiding lo hin, Russia is
Iagging 25 lo 3O yeais lehind lhe Uniled Slales in de3
veIoping piospeclive aii defense veapons lecause of a
neIldovn of ils defense indusliies. CeneiaI Koinukov
conpIained lhal lhe nalions aii defense capaliIilies
veie vaning vilh lhe S-33O appioaching ieliienenl
and onIy lvo lalleiies of lhe nev S-4OO depIoyed. In
addilion, aii defense hghleis veie oflen giounded
due lo a Iack of engines and spaie pails. RegiellalIy,
oui aii defense foices onIy have a Iiniled capaliIily lo
piolecl lhe nalions secuiily.
19
CoIoneI CeneiaI ZeIin cIains lhal a najoi piogian
lo upgiade lhe Aii Ioices pIalfoins and syslens vas
leing undeilaken. CenliaI lo lhese vas lhe inlioduc3
lion of a so-caIIed hflh-geneialion hghlei, lhe TA-5O,
puichases of advanced fouilh-geneialion aiiciafl such
as lhe Su-34 and 35, S-4OO and S-55O aii and nissiIe
defense syslens, and lhe KA-52 A||iga|cr. In addilion,
276
lhe Aii Ioice is iepoiled lo le ieceiving iefuilished
veisions of oIdei syslens, such as lhe MiC-29s and
31s, and Su-27 and 3O hghlei, Tu-22 lonlei, and II-
76 lianspoil. One iepoil suggesls lhal ly 2O2O lhe Aii
Ioice viII have upgiaded sone 1,5OO aiiciafl, vhiIe
aIso inlioducing liand nev pIalfoins.
2O

The Russian Navy is facing lhe end of lhe piojecled
seivice Iives foi viiluaIIy aII of ils depIoyed pIalfoins.
Whal scaice iesouices have leen nade avaiIalIe since
lhe faII of lhe Soviel Union have gone IaigeIy lo nain3
lain lhe laIIislic nissiIe sulnaiine (SSN) IIeel. Lven
lhis poilion of lhe IIeel is on shaky giound, vilh lhe
Dc||a-cIass SSNs fasl leconing olsoIele and lhe nev
8craq cIass jusl enleiing seivice. Lven lhen, iepealed
.#(. 10&62+#( /1 ."# 8u|cta sulnaiine Iaunched laI3
Iislic nissiIe (SLM) iaise conceins lhal one Ieg of
lhe Russian slialegic liiad nay le al iisk. LIsevheie
in lhe IIeel, lhe nunlei of suiface conlalanls and
sulnaiines conlinues lo decIine. Theie aie piogians
lo luiId nev sulneisilIe nucIeai ships (SSNs), sul3
neisilIe, guided nissiIe, nucIeai ships (SSCNs), Iong-
iange hunlei-kiIIei sulnaiines (SSKs), fiigales, and
coivelles, lul lhese aie aII piogiessing sIovIy. The
nosl signihcanl iefoin slep lhe Navy look vas lo
piopose lhe ciealion of hve oi six caiiiei lask gioups
luiIl aiound a nev aiiciafl caiiiei, lhe hisl of vhich
viII legin consliuclion in 2O12 oi 2O13.
21
The sheei nagnilude of iefoins nusl give any
ieasonalIe olseivei pause. Iiesidenl Medvedev is
iepoiled lo have oideied lhe upgiading of an avei3
age of 9-11 peicenl of lhe niIilaiys veapons and
niIilaiy equipnenl each yeai, iesuIling in an oveiaII
nodeinizalion IeveI of appioxinaleIy 7O peicenl ly
2O2O. Accoiding lo one Russian souice, lhis neans an3
nuaI deIiveiies of 35 laIIislic nissiIes, 5O nev and 5O
277
upgiaded vaipIanes, 2O lo 25 niIilaiy heIicopleis, 3-4
sea-going and ocean-going vaiships, 2 nucIeai-pov3
eied sulnaiines and 1 dieseI-poveied sulnaiine.
22
!"# 72++#-. *60- +#=2&+#( ."# >&+ A/+7# ./ +#7#&%#
1OO nev oi iefuilished aiiciafl a yeai. ul even vilh
aII of lhese piogians, lhe oveiaII nunlei of aiiciafl
vouId decIine ly neaiIy 5O peicenl. In 2OO8, hovevei,
lhe Aii Ioice ieceived hve Su-24M2s, eighl Su-27SMs,
foui Su-25SMs, a coupIe of upgiaded MiC-31Ms, one
nev and one upgiaded Tu-16O slialegic lonlei, and
a singIe Su-34 hghlei, foi a lolaI of onIy 21. The cui3
ienl pIan iequiies lhe Aii Ioice lo ieceive 1OO nev oi
iefuilished aiiciafl a yeai. ul even vilh aII of lhese
piogians, lhe oveiaII nunlei of aiiciafl vouId de3
cIine ly neaiIy 5O peicenl.
23

If anylhing, lhe Navy is in lhe voisl condilion of
aII lhe Seivices. Accoiding lo lhe |ndcpcndcn| Mi|i|arq
Rcticu, Russias shipluiIding indusliy cannol suslain
lhe oveiIy anlilious pIan pioposed ly lhe Minisliy
of Defense. The Russian shipluiIding indusliy is in3
capalIe of pioducing vaiships in eilhei lhe quanlily
/+ 0. ."# 6#%#6 /1 =206&.5 ."0. ."#&+ -0%5 72(./8#+ +#3
quiies.
24
Ieihaps ieecling lhis ieaIily, in }une 2OO9
lhe Minisliy of Defense announced lhal lhe videIy
louled pIan lo luiId hve oi six caiiiei lallIe gioups
had leen poslponed.
25

Il is cIeai lhal Russian niIilaiy Ieadeis aie inlenl
nol sinpIy on slieanIining lheii niIilaiy and nak3
ing ils assels noie depIoyalIe and enpIoyalIe, lul
of deveIoping neans foi neuliaIizing vhal lhey pei3
ceive as lhe nosl signihcanl lhieal lo Russias secu3
iily: lhe advanced convenlionaI niIilaiy capaliIilies
leing depIoyed ly lhe Uniled Slales and, lo a Iessei
exlenl, NATO and China. Russian defense expeils iec3
ognize lhal lhey have IillIe hope of nalching lhe U.S.
278
niIilaiys convenlionaI capaliIilies. Russia Iacks lhe
lechnoIogicaI lase oi lhe hnanciaI iesouices foi such
an ains iace. Il is exlieneIy unIikeIy lhal lhe Russian
8&6&.0+5 '&66 +#7#&%# ."# =20-.&.&#( /1 -#' 0-, 2*3
giaded pIalfoins and syslens il desiies. ul even if a
niiacIe veie lo occui, lhe Russian niIilaiy vouId sliII
conlinue lo faII lehind lhe Wesl (and China) vhich,
as Russian lhieal slalenenls undeiscoie, aie invesl3
ing heaviIy in a vide iange of niIilaiy lechnoIogies
incIuding advanced connand, conlioI, and connu3
nicalions (C3), infoinalion vaifaie, unnanned sys3
lens, hypeiveIocily pIalfoins, and diiecled eneigy
veapons.
This Ied Russia lo exanine lhe possiliIily asyn3
neliic iesponses. Then Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin de3
sciiled such an appioach in 2OO6.
We aie lo keep oui eyes open on lhe pIans and deveI3
opnenl liends of olhei counliies ained foices, and
lo knov aloul lheii fuluie deveIopnenls. Quanlily
is nol lhe end, hovevei. . . . Oui iesponses aie lo le
lased on inleIIecluaI supeiioiily. They viII le asyn3
neliicaI, and Iess coslIy.
26
Whal foin nighl such an asynneliic iesponse
lake` One Russian aulhoi suggesls lhal lhis vouId in3
voIve hoiizonlaI escaIalion againsl slialegic laigels in
lhe enenys leiiiloiy.
Conlining defensive opeialions undeilaken lo leal
off aggiession and asynneliicaI aclions ieIying on lhe
efhciency of nodein high-piecision convenlionaIIy
equipped slialegic veapons syslens, suppoiled ly
sulveisive and ieconnaissance gioups is a peisuasive
enough facloi foi lhe eneny lo cease niIilaiy opeia3
lions on leins favoialIe foi Russia. This concIusion
has a piaclicaI signihcance and ieIevance in viev of
279
lhe facl lhal lhe econony and infiasliucluie of any Lu3
iopean counliy has a Iaige nunlei of oljeclives, sone
of lhen polenliaIIy dangeious, vilaI foi lhe suivivaI of
ils popuIalion and goveinnenl.
SlialegicaIIy inpoilanl laigels lhal, if deslioyed,
Iead lo unacceplalIe danage incIude lhe lop govein3
nenl adninislialion and niIilaiy conlioI syslens,
najoi nanufacluiing, fueI, and eneigy enleipiises
(sleeI and engineeiing pIanls, oiI iehneiies, defense
indusliy enleipiises, eIecliic povei pIanls and sul3
slalions, oiI and gas pioduclion, accunuIalion, and
sloiage faciIilies, Iife suppoil faciIilies, and so on), vi3
.0665 &8*/+.0-. .+0-(*/+.0.&/- 107&6&.&#( 07+/(( ."# 0,3
veisaiys enliie leiiiloiy (iaiIioad huls, liidges, slia3
legic poils, aiipoils, lunneIs, and so on), polenliaIIy
dangeious oljeclives (hydioeIecliic povei dans and
hydioeIecliic povei conpIexes, piocessing unils of
chenicaI pIanls, nucIeai povei faciIilies, sloiages of
sliong poisons, and so on).
27

=L8 6;5=-53-5O 7328 ;@ 5367842
984:;5!
Russian Ieadeiships sense of lheii ovn vuInei3
aliIily causes lhen lo lehave in a ceilain vay on lhe
inleinalionaI slage. SecuIai denogiaphics and sociaI
and econonic liends aigue lhal Russias sense of ils
ovn veakness, and hence of vuIneialiIily, viII onIy
giov. Moscov is deleinined lo lake vhal IillIe line
and fev avaiIalIe iesouices il has lo liy and Ieveiage
ilseIf inlo a secuie posilion as a co-equaI of lhe voiIds
gieal and iising poveis.
As noled alove, lhe NSS nakes cIeai lhe KienIins
viev lhal lhe U.S. vilhdiavaI fion lhe Anli-aIIislic
28O
MissiIe (AM) Tiealy and iefusaI lo conlinue lhe li3
IaleiaI piocess of slialegic ains negolialions of ils pie3
decessois ciealed a lhieal lo lhe Russian Iedeialion.
A+/8 ."&( */&-.9 &. &( #0(5 ./ 7/-762,# ."0. '"0. ."#
Russian Ieadeis seek is a ieluin lo lhe lygone days of
82.206 0((2+#, ,#(.+27.&/- 0-, 7/-.&-2/2( +#*#.&.&%#
ains conlioI. This ieIalionship seives lhiee funclions.
Iiisl, il juslihes lhe KienIins lhieal peiceplions as
delaiIed in lhe NSS and MiIilaiy Docliines. Second,
il juslihes a conlinuing ieIiance on nucIeai veapons
in niIilaiy slialegy and olviales lhe need foi iefoins
of lhe scaIe and scope necessilaled ly an aIleinalive
slialegy. IinaIIy, lhe veiy piocess of negolialions
seives lo vaIidale Russian cIains of ieIevance and
slalus in lhe inleinalionaI syslen. As one eninenl
anaIysl of lolh Soviel and Russian niIilaiy lhoughl
olseived iecenlIy:
The MAD-lased U.S.-RI ieIalionship oiganicaIIy pie3
supposes conlinued lensions and lhe need foi iigid
conlioIs ovei lhe nucIeai veapons of lolh counliies.
Moscov is inleiesled in nainlaining lhe syslen of
conlinuous slialegic negolialions foi nany ieasons.
These negolialions aie naiked ly lhe auia of unique3
ness and unpaiaIIeIed signihcance in inleinalionaI
ieIalions. They synloIize lhe equaI slalus of lhe in3
voIved pailies. Russians, Iike lhe Soviels lefoie lhen,
leIieve lhal lhe negolialions logelhei vilh lhe accon3
panying sunniliy cieale a poveifuI lackgiound foi
and dehne lhe lone of aII olhei liIaleiaI exchanges.
They aIso see diiecl Iinkages lelveen nainlaining lhe
liIaleiaI slialegic laIance and lhe gIolaI secuiily silu3
alion, incIuding Russias ieIalions vilh NATO, lhe fale
of lhe ConvenlionaI Ioices in Luiope Tiealy, lhe ioIe
of laclicaI nucIeai veapons syslens and anli-laIIislic
nissiIe defenses in Luiope and olhei iegions, lhe fu3
.2+# /1 -276#0+ -/-*+/6&1#+0.&/- 0-, -276#0+ '#0*/-(
lesling.
28
281
The lhieal enviionnenl faliicaled ly lhe Russian
goveinnenl nay seive olvious doneslic poIilicaI
needs. ul il cieales an inpoilanl diIenna foi Russia
inleinalionaIIy. Hov can Moscov agiee lo lhe eIini3
-0.&/- /1 &.( -276#0+ '#0*/-( '"#- ."#5 06/-# 0+# ."#
essenliaI luIvaik againsl lhose lhieals` AddilionaIIy,
vhal vouId le lhe lasis foi Russias cIain foi a high
*607# 0-, 2-&=2# (.0.2( &- ."# '/+6, '#+# ."#5 -/. ./
ielain one of lhe voiIds Iaigesl aisenaIs of nucIeai
veapons`
The conlinalion of doneslic veakness and a
sense of a conlinuing, even inlensifying, exleinaI
lhieal Ieads lhe Russian Ieadeiship lo Iook foi aieas
vheie lhey can shoie up lheii silualion. The liulh is
lhal Russia despeialeIy needs nucIeai veapons. Il is
a povei on lhe inleinalionaI slage aInosl soIeIy le3
cause il possesses nucIeai veapons. The coIIapse of
Russias econony foIIoving lhe end of lhe CoId Wai,
lhe paiIous slale of Russian convenlionaI foices, and
lhe sense of pioIifeialing lhieals iesuIl, in lhe ninds
of lhe KienIin oIigaichs, in a IogicaI aigunenl foi in3
cieased ieIiance on nucIeai veapons. Il is no vondei
lhal undei lhese condilions, Russian Ieadeis in gen3
#+069 0-, 7#+.0&-65 ."# 8&6&.0+59 '/26, %&#' -276#0+
veapons as leing lhe one capaliIily lhal guaianleed
Russias aliIily lo delei aggiession. Indeed, il appeais
as if slialegic nucIeai veapons aie lhe onIy facloi
lhal conliilules lo Russia having any ieIevance in lhe
evoIving inleinalionaI syslen.
B-# ?#(.#+- */6&.&706 (7&#-.&(. '&." #).#-(&%# #)3
peiience in Moscov nade lhe conneclion lelveen lhe
ielenlion of nucIeai veapons and Russian poIilicaI
and psychoIogicaI needs expIicil.
282
As lhe seIf-peiceived isoIaled gieal povei in a high3
Iy conpelilive gIolaI enviionnenl, Russia iegaids
nucIeai veapons as lhe nainslay of lolh ils secuiily
posluie and slalus anong lhe najoi poveis of lhe 21sl
cenluiy. Lven lhough lhe IikeIihood of a vai vilh ils
ex-CoId Wai adveisaiies~Aneiica, ils Luiopean aI3
Iies, and China~is exlieneIy Iov, nucIeai deleiience
gives a neasuie of confoil lo lhe KienIin lhal Rus3
sias vilaI inleiesls viII le iespecled undei aII ciicun3
slances ly Washinglon and eijing, vhose niIilaiy
povei and conlined nalionaI nighl, iespecliveIy,
aie nov fai giealei lhan Russias.
29
We shouId nol le confused ly Russias viIIing3
ness lo puisue slialegic ains ieduclions and lo sign
a nev ains Iinilalion liealy vilh lhe Uniled Slales.
This is nol a sign of a change in Moscovs vievs of
&-.#+-0.&/-06 +#60.&/-( /+ /1 0- 077#*.0-7# /1 ."# -##,
lo nove leyond ieIalions lased on oId slyIe nea3
suies of nalionaI povei. The nev START Tiealy vas
a nallei of alsoIule necessily foi Russia. Alsenl lhe
nev agieenenl, Russia vouId have leen foiced lo ie3
duce ils slialegic nucIeai foices uniIaleiaIIy. In an eia
in vhich lhe lvo foinei adveisaiies no Iongei viev
each olhei as piincipaI lhieals, vhy shouId lhis le a
piolIen` ul foi lhe Ieadeis of lhe KienIin, il vas
inpeialive lhal lhey liing dovn U.S. slialegic foices
equaIIy. Any olhei oulcone vouId le a cIeai adnis3
sion of Russian veakness.
Russias nucIeai slialegy aIso does nol heIp. Iaced
vilh a decaying convenlionaI niIilaiy and lhe peicep3
lion of exleinaI lhieal, lhe Russian niIilaiy docliine
focused on an expanded ioIe foi nucIeai veapons.
NucIeai veapons lecane lhe vay nol lo Iose a con3
venlionaI conicl. As a senioi U.S. defense ofhciaI
connenled:
283
!"#+# 0+# 0(*#7.( ./ ."#&+ -276#0+ ,/7.+&-#9 ."#&+ 8&6&3
laiy aclivilies lhal ve hnd veiy lioulIing. If you iead
iecenl Russian niIilaiy docliine lhey aie going in lhe
olhei diieclion, lhey aie acluaIIy incieasing lheii ieIi3
0-7# /- -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 ."# +/6# &- -276#0+ '#0*/-(
in lheii slialegy.
3O
To nake nalleis voise foi Russia, lhe voiId is
expeiiencing an ongoing ievoIulion in lhe neans of
convenlionaI vaifaie. As U.S. Secielaiy of Defense
Roleil Cales has poinled oul in a nunlei of iecenl
speeches, lhe capaliIilies lhal undeiIie lhis ievoIulion
aie pioIifeialing. He has nade iepealed iefeience lo
lhe so-caIIed anli-access/aiea deniaI capaliIilies le3
ing depIoyed ly China, Iian, and even HezloIIah. In
iesponse lo such dangeis, lhe Secielaiy, as veII as
/."#+ 8&6&.0+5 6#0,#+( 0-, ,#1#-(# #)*#+.(9 0,%/70.#
acceIeialing inveslnenls in ievoIulionaiy capaliIilies.
In nany inslances, lhese aie pieciseIy lhe kinds of
veapons pIalfoins and syslens idenlihed as Ieading
lhieals in lhe nev MiIilaiy Docliine. One senioi Rus3
sian niIilaiy Ieadei pul lhe piolIen lhis vay:
y 2O3O . . . foieign counliies, pailicuIaiIy lhe Uniled
Slales, viII le alIe lo deIivei cooidinaled, high-pieci3
sion sliikes againsl any laigel on lhe vhoIe leiiiloiy
of Russia.
31

The IinaI Repoil of lhe Connission on lhe Sliale3
gic Iosluie of lhe Uniled Slales noled lhal, IionicaIIy,
oui edge in convenlionaI capaliIilies has induced lhe
Russians, nov feeIing lheii convenlionaI dehciencies,
lo inciease lheii ieIiance on lolh laclicaI and slialegic
nucIeai veapons.
32
In a Iaigei sense, nucIeai veapons aie an aII-pui3
*/(# &-(.+28#-. '&." '"&7" ./ 0,,+#(( 8/(. /1 ."#
284
niIilaiy secuiily chaIIenges of lhe 21sl cenluiy.
33
Rus3
(&0- */6&.&706 0-, 8&6&.0+5 6#0,#+( 0-, ,#1#-(# 0-03
Iysls, echoing aigunenls nade ly lheii piedecessois
in lhe 198Os, have iepealedIy aigued lhal lhe lhieal of
convenlionaI piecision-sliike veapons couId le coun3
leied ly lhe enpIoynenl of lhealei nucIeai veapons.
34

Accoiding lo lhe NSS:
In lhe inleiesl of ensuiing slialegic slaliIily and eq3
uilalIe nuIliIaleiaI coopeialion in lhe inleinalionaI
aiena Russia duiing lhe inpIenenlalion of lhis Slial3
egy viII nake eveiy effoil al lhe Ieasl cosl IeveI lo
nainlain paiily vilh lhe Uniled Slales in lhe heId of
slialegic offensive veapons undei lhe condilions of
depIoynenl of a gIolaI nissiIe defense syslen and ie3
aIizalion of lhe concepl of gIolaI Iighlning sliike using
slialegic deIiveiy syslens vilh nucIeai and conven3
lionaI vaiheads.
35
42Q! 6;5=2;7> Q-!!-78 ?8@85!8!> 45?
!=24=8O-6 !=4/-7-=R
The iecenl iesel in U.S.-Russian ieIalions shouId
nol le laken as a sign lhal aII lhe difhcuIlies lelveen
lhese lvo counliies aie a lhing of lhe pasl. In facl, in
80-5 '05( +#7#-. #%#-.( 805 7+#0.# 0 106(# #)*#7.03
lion on lolh sides lhal il viII le easy lo liidge ienain3
ing diffeiences on nalleis of secuiily. In facl, lhe op3
posile condilion nay le liue.
Weie Moscov alIe lo achieve ils desiied ends
vilh iespecl lo convenlionaI foice nodeinizalion,
lheie nighl le a ieasonalIe chance lhal Russia and
lhe Uniled Slales couId nove aIong a connon palh
lovaids a slalIe slialegic ieIalionship al veiy Iov
nunleis of nucIeai veapons. UnfoilunaleIy, Russia
and lhe Uniled Slales aie on diveigenl slialegic palhs
285
lhal aie IikeIy lo iesuIl in giealei fiiclion and a noie
difhcuIl secuiily diaIogue in lhe fuluie. SinpIy pul,
lhe U.S. posilion is lhal convenlionaI neans, incIud3
ing nissiIe defenses, offeis a neans foi nainlaining
deleiience and ieassuiing aIIies vhiIe ieIying Iess on
nucIeai veapons and, possilIy, even dissuading sone
polenliaI pioIifeialois fion puisuing a nucIeai capa3
liIily.
ul il is pieciseIy lhe U.S. advanlage in advanced
convenlionaI veapons and defensive lechnoIogies,
lioadIy dehned, lhal poses lhe giealesl neai-lein
lhieal lo lhe KienIins conceplion of ils secuiily
needs. The focus on convenlionaI foices ieduces lhe
(06&#-7# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 7#+.0&-65 0( 0 8#0-( /1
deleiience lul aIso as lhe poIilicaI Iodeslone of gieal
povei slalus. The gioving U.S. concein aloul Chinas
niIilaiy nighl is a ieaclion lo lhal counliys invesl3
nenls in advanced convenlionaI capaliIilies, pailicu3
60+65 (/37066#, 0-.&3077#(( 0-, 0+#0 ,#-&06 (5(.#8( 0-,
nol lo lhe nodeinizalion of Chinas nucIeai aisenaI.
Sone in lhe Wesl have voiiied lhal if lhe pionises
heId ly lhe ievoIulion in niIilaiy affaiis naleiiaIize,
even inconpIeleIy, lhey nay signihcanlIy Iovei lhe
lhieshoId of niIilaiy inleivenlion. This is exaclIy lhe
oulcone lhal Russia is voiiied aloul, foi il leIieves
lhal lhe nev capaliIilies nighl open lhe vay lo a noie
aggiessive inleivenlionisl poIicy of lhe Uniled Slales
and NATO lhal nighl veII chaIIenge Russias inlei3
esls in vaiious iegions and especiaIIy in aieas cIose lo
lhe Russian loideis.
36
Theie is viiluaIIy no chance lhal Moscov can neel
ils oljeclives foi iefoining lhe Russian niIilaiy ly
2O2O. Il viII le a nonunenlaI chaIIenge foi lhe Kien3
Iin sinpIy lo sIov lhe pace of eiosion of lhe Russian
286
niIilaiy. TechnoIogy Iinilalions, indusliiaI decay, ie3
souice consliainls, and peisonneI piolIens nay veII
foice lhe Russian Ieadeis lo seek secuiily in a snaIIei
lul nodeinized nucIeai posluie.
>-/."#+ &((2# ."0. "/6,( ."# */.#-.&06 ./ &-7+#0(3
ingIy divide lhe lvo counliies is lhal of nissiIe de3
1#-(#(9 *0+.&7260+65 ."# *+/*/(#, ,#*6/58#-. /1 0
Iiniled nissiIe defense syslen in Luiope. The Olana
adninislialion has conhined lhe viev of ils piedeces3
soi lhal nissiIe defenses aie a Iegilinale, even cenliaI,
pail of lhe deleiience and ieassuiance equalion. Iiop3
eiIy nanaged in a so-caIIed phased, adaplive slial3
egy, such defenses can piovide deleiience of nissiIe
lhieals and ieassuiance lo aIIies lhal nighl olheivise
onIy le allainalIe ly expIicil nucIeai guaianlees.
The Russian goveinnenl and Ieading slialegic
expeils veie highIy ciilicaI of lhe U.S. pioposaI lo
depIoy a Iiniled laIIislic nissiIe defense syslen in
Laslein Luiope. A nunlei of ofhciaIs have gone so fai
as lo vain lhal Moscov viII lake offensive counlei3
8#0(2+#(9 (/8# /1 '"&7" '/26, &-7+#0(# ."# ."+#0. ./
Luiope, in lhe evenl lhal lhe syslen venl foivaid. On
lhe day Iiesidenl aiack Olana vas eIecled, Iiesi3
denl Medvedev vained lhal unIess lhe pIan lo depIoy
lhe nissiIes in Luiope vas haIled, Russia vouId de3
pIoy addilionaI shoil-iange laIIislic and ciuise nis3
siIes againsl Laslein Luiope.
37
WhiIe il vas assuned lhal Russian opposilion lo
nissiIe defenses in Luiope vas a funclion of lheii de3
pIoynenl in lhe alsence of a foinaI agieenenl as veII
as lhe naluie of lhe defenses lhenseIves (lhe oiiginaI
Thiid Sile vas an exlension of lhe NalionaI MissiIe
Defense syslen), lhis nay nol le lhe case. Russia has
iaised conceins aloul lhe depIoynenl of a Iand-lased
veision of lhe Aegis/Slandaid MissiIe syslen in Lu3
287
iope. RecenlIy, Moscov even oljecled lo lhe depIoy3
nenl of a U.S. Ialiiol lalleiy lo IoIand.
Russia has a lvo-foId piolIen vilh lhe U.S. pui3
suil of effeclive lhealei defenses. The hisl is lhe inpacl
,#1#-(#( 805 "0%# /- ."#&+ #11/+.( ./ ,#*6/5 (2*#+&/+
lhealei capaliIilies, lolh convenlionaI and nucIeai.
The second is lheii leIief lhal lhealei defenses, pailic3
uIaiIy if Inleinelled and connecled lo space-lased
and olhei noliIe sensois, viII le a dandy pIalfoin foi
ciealion of a highIy effeclive slialegic defense capaliI3
ily. Such a defense, enpIoyed in conjunclion vilh an
0,%0-7#,9 *+#7&(&/- 7/-%#-.&/-06 /11#-(#9 7/26, *+/3
vide lhe lasis foi a disaining hisl-sliike scenaiio.
MissiIe defenses, pailicuIaiIy lhose in Luiope, ap3
peai lo sliike al lhe veiy heail of lhe Russian concepl
of slialegic slaliIily and Moscovs iequiienenl lo le
alIe lo hoId Luiope al iisk iegaidIess of lhe laIance of
foices lelveen Russia and lhe Uniled Slales. One ana3
Iysl soughl lo ansvei lhe queslion vhy a defense of
onIy 1O inleiceplois oiienled lovaids lhe lhieal fion
Iian vouId so anlagonize lhe Russian goveinnenl.
CIose exaninalion of Russian poIicy ieveaIs lhal
lhese defenses enliench lhe Uniled Slales in Laslein
Luiopes niIilaiy defense and foiecIose Russias hope
of inlinidaling CenliaI and Laslein Luiope oi of iees3
lalIishing ils hegenony lheie and possilIy even in lhe
ConnonveaIlh of Independenl Slales (CIS). If nissiIe
defenses exisl in Luiope, Russian nissiIe lhieals aie
giealIy dininished, if nol negaled. ecause enpiie
0-, ."# 7+#0.&/- /1 0 1#0+(/8# ,/8#(.&7 #-#85 42(.&15
and aie lhe inexliicalIe coioIIaiies of inleinaI auloc3
iacy, lhe end of enpiie aIIegedIy enlaiIs Russias ii3
ievocalIe decIine as a gieal povei and - lhe ciuciaI
poinl - geneiales lienendous piessuie foi doneslic
iefoin.
38
288
Russia needs eilhei lo luiId a convenlionaI niIi3
laiy connensuiale vilh ils sense of ilseIf as a gieal
povei and ieecling ils concein ovei lhe lhieal posed
ly lhe Uniled Slales and NATO oi lo diag lhe focus
of lhe U.S.-Russian slialegic ieIalionship lack lo ils
#+(.'"&6# *+#/772*0.&/- '&." -276#0+ '#0*/-( 0-, 0
slalIe laIance of leiioi. The foinei is unIikeIy lo hap3
pen. The Iallei slialegy is lhe souice of Medvedevs
DiIenna iefeienced alove. Russia cannol lake lhe
liIaleiaI slialegic ieIalionship lack lo lhe fuluie vilh3
oul, al a nininun, undeinining lhe Olana adninis3
lialions goaI of noving lovaids zeio oi, noie piol3
Ienalic sliII, slinuIaling a nev eia of confionlalion.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 `
1. Henning Schidei, Russias NalionaI Secuiily Slialegy lo
2O2O, Russian Ana|q|ica| Digcs|, }une 18, 2OO9, p. 6.
2. AIexei ogaluiov, Do you Wanl Open Syslens` uiId a
CIosed Ioc: Medvedevs MiIilaiy-Slialegic DiIenna, Nczatisi-
naqa Gazc|a, }une 15, 2OO9D
3. AdniiaI Dennis Iaii, Annua| Tnrca| Asscssncn| cf |nc |n-
|c||igcncc Ccnnuni|q fcr |nc Scna|c Sc|cc| Ccnni||cc cn |n|c||igcncc9
Washinglon, DC: U.S. Congiess, Ieliuaiy 12, 2OO9, p. 27.
4. Tnc Na|icna| Sccuri|q cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn un|i| 2020
(NSS), IiesidenliaI Deciee No. 537, Moscov, Russia, May 12, 2OO9.
5. Luke Haiding, Russia announces nev ains iace, Tnc
Guardian, Maich 17, 2OO9.
6. Di. Slephen Iank, Russia ChaIIenges lhe Olana Adnin3
islialion, Op-|d, CaiIisIe, IA: Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S.
Ainy Wai CoIIege, Decenlei 2OO8.
7. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn, Moscov, Russia,
Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, p. 3.
289
8. |oid, p. 6.
9. Russia lo lioaden nucIeai sliike oplions, RT, Oclolei 14,
2OO9.
1O. NSS.
11. Iiesidenl Dniliy Medvedev, ciled in Russia ieady foi
MeaningfuI MiIilaiy iefoin. Again. ReaIIy, avaiIalIe fion ncs-
ccussnadcus.ucrdprcss.ccn/2008/09/27.
12. Rogei McDeinoll, Russias Arncd |crccs. Tnc Pcucr cf ||-
|usicn, Russie.Nei.Visions No. 37, iusseIs, eIgiun: Iiench In3
slilule of InleinalionaI ReIalions, Maich 2OO9, pp. 16-18. AIso see
Rogei McDeinoll, Russias 'Lessons fion lhe Ceoigia Wai:
Inpacls on MiIilaiy Refoin IIans, CAC| Ana|qs|, Novenlei 12,
2OO8.
13. Andiev LiaiopouIos, The Russian Defense Refoin and
ils Linilalions, Caucasian Rcticu cf |n|crna|icna| Affairs, VoI. 2,
No. 1, Winlei 2OO8, pp. 44-45.
14. MiIilaiy iefoin: asic guideIines, R|A Nctcs|i, Ieliuaiy
24, 2O1O.
15. Dniliiy Coienluig, Russias Nev ModeI Ainy: RadicaI
Refoin in lhe Russian MiIilaiy, Augusl 14, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion
russiani|.ucrdprcss.ccn.
16. Lieulenanl CoIoneI Andiev WaIIace, ChaIIenges lo Rus3
sias Aii Ioice Refoin, Tnc |SC|P Ana|qs|, VoI. 16, No. 12, ApiiI
22, 2O1O.
17. Rogei McDeinoll, SlaII and Spin in Russian Aii Ioice
Refoin, Asia Tincs On|inc, Augusl 22, 2OO9.
18. David LscheI, In Spile of Medvedevs Oplinisn, Russian
MiIilaiy is Iacing Seveie Ciisis, Defense Updale onIine, }uIy 24,
2OO9, avaiIalIe fion dcfcnsc-upda|c.ccn/ana|qsis/russian_ni|i|arq_
crisis_240709.n|n|.
29O
19. VIadinii Isachenkov, Ioinei Russian Aii Ioice Chief
says Aii Defenses have Weakened,Associaled Iiess, May 13,
2O1O.
2O. The Iuluie of lhe Russian Aii Ioice: 1O Yeais On, R|A
Nctcs|i, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/ana|qsis/20100317/158228523.
n|n|.
21. MiIan Vego, The Russian Navy RevilaIized, Arncd |crc-
cs ]curna|, ApiiI 2OO9.
22. Russian MiIilaiy Refoin in a Tine of Ciisis, R|A Nc-
tcs|i, Maich 15, 2O1O.
23. AIexey Konaiov, Russian Aii Ioice Lxpecls 1OO Nev
Aiiciafl, Atia|icn lcc|, Maich 1O, 2OO9.
24. Ciled in Reulen I. }ohnson, Russian Navy Iacing 'Iiie3
veisilIe CoIIapse, Tnc lcc||q S|andard, }uIy 13, 2OO9.
25. Rogei McDeinoll, NavaI OveihauI SIides off Russias
Agenda, Asia Tincs onIine, }une 26, 2OO9.
26. V. V. Iulin, Addiess lo lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy of lhe Rus3
sian Iedeialion, Krasnaqa Ztczda, No. 89, May 11, 2OO6.
27. CoIoneI S. C. Chekinov and Lieulenanl CeneiaI S. A. og3
danov, Asynneliic Aclions lo Mainlain Russias MiIilaiy Secu3
iily, Mi|i|arq Tncugn|, No. 1, 2O1O, p. 8.
28. Andiei Schounekhin and akei Spiing, Slialegic Nu3
cIeai Ains ConlioI foi lhe Iiolecl and Defend Slialegy, 8ac|-
grcundcr, No. 2266, Washinglon, DC: The Heiilage Ioundalion,
May 4, 2OO9, pp. 7-8.
29. Dnilii Tienin,Russian Ieispeclives on lhe CIolaI LIini3
nalion of NucIeai Weapons, aiiy Iechnan, ed., Russian and
|nc Uni|cd S|a|cs, Washinglon, DC: The Slinson Cenlei, }uIy, 2OO9,
p. 1.
3O. Undei Secielaiy of Defense foi IoIicy MicheIIe IIouinoy,
Moscovs NucIeai Docliine undei Iiie, |inancia| Tincs, Maich
18, 2O1O, p. 1.
291
31. CoIoneI CeneiaI AIexandei ZeIin, Chief VVS, ciled in R|A
Nctcs|i, Augusl 11, 2OO9.
32. Connission on lhe U.S. Slialegic Iosluie.
33. Slephen Iank, Russia and Arns Ccn|rc|. Arc Tncrc Oppcr|u-
ni|ics fcr |nc Ooana Adninis|ra|icn? CaiIisIe, IA: Slialegic Sludies
Inslilule, U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege, Maich 2OO9, p. xi.
34. Slephen Iank, Undeleiied: The Reluin of NucIeai Wai,
Gccrgc|cun ]curna| cf |n|crna|icna| Affairs, VoI. I, No. 2, Sunnei/
IaII 2OOO, pp. 55-63.
35. NSS.
36. IaveI Iodvig, Rctc|u|icn in Mi|i|arq Affairs. Cna||cngc |c
Russias Sccuri|q, Iapei Iiesenled al lhe VTT Lneigy Slyx Seni3
nai, HeIsinki, IinIand, Seplenlei 4, 2OO.1
37. Slephen }. Iank, Russia ChaIIenges lhe ush Adnin3
islialion, Op-|d, CaiIisIe, IA: Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S.
Ainy Wai CoIIege, Decenlei 2OO8.
38. |oid.
293
6L4:=82 a
23!!-4 45? 5367842 984:;5!
!"%AB%. CD /E$.1
Many U.S. anaIysls in and oul of goveinnenl nain3
lain lhal nucIeai veapons aie incieasingIy iiieIevanl
lolh poIilicaIIy and niIilaiiIy. AIIegedIy al lesl, lhey
70- /-65 ,#.#+ /."#+ -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 0-, &- 0-5 70(#
convenlionaI capaliIilies aie fasl achieving a conpa3
ialIe capaliIily, iendeiing lhe niIilaiy-slialegic uliI3
ily of nucIeai veapons incieasingIy dulious. A huge
and gioving Iileialuie speaks lo lhe senseIessness
of nucIeai veapons lhal aie supposedIy incieasingIy
devoid of niIilaiy uliIily and lhal lhey aie leconing
neieIy synloIs of gieal povei slalus.
1
UnfoilunaleIy,
lhis IaigeIy U.S. and Luiopean viev is nol giounded
in lhe ieaI voiId aloul vhich lhese anaIysls sone3
lines speak disdainfuIIy. Ralhei, il is oflen iooled in
lhe vish lo le iid of, deIegilinize, oi al Ieasl nininize
lhe uliIily of nucIeai veapons. CeilainIy lhe idea lhal
nucIeai veapons peifoin no disceinilIy usefuI niIi3
.0+5 8&((&/- &( +//.#, &- ."#/+#.&706 #)#+7&(#( -/.9 1/+3
lunaleIy, enpiiicaI evidence. Al lhe sane line, nuch
of lhis viiling suffeis fion an excessive focus on U.S.
poIicy and slialegy and lhe coiiesponding negIecl of
olhei slales lhinking and expeiience.
AnaIysis of Russias nucIeai agenda, nol lo nen3
.&/- -276#0+ &((2#( &- /."#+ -276#0+ */'#+( /+ *+/6&1#+3
alois, suggesls, as lhis aulhoi noled a decade ago, lhal
even if nunleis decIine, lhe iange of nissions is in3
cieasing, as is lhe oveiaII inpoilance of nucIeai veap3
ons foi Russia.
2
Moieovei, cIose exaninalion of Rus3
sian defense issues, lolh in lheii doneslic and foieign
294
poIicy conlexl, suggesls lhal veiy sliong oljeclive and
suljeclive foices aie diiving Russia lovaid enhanced
ieIiance upon nucIeai veapons, even as lheii nunleis
deciease, foi a hosl of ciilicaI (as seen ly Moscov)
poIilicaI and niIilaiy nissions. These faclois exisl ii3
iespeclive of nunleis, lecause no Weslein anaIysis
knovn lo lhis aulhoi has caIcuIaled hov nany nucIeai
veapons lhal Russia acluaIIy needs oi foi vhal nis3
sions (a connon faiIing as veII anong nuch viiling
on U.S. foices). ConsequenlIy, iegaidIess of lhe nun3
leis of nucIeai veapons lhal Russia nay have in 2O2O
oi 2O3O, il is aIso unIikeIy lhal lhe nev ains conlioI
liealy viII Iead Russia lo enliace lhe idea of gIolaI
zeio despile nany favoialIe slalenenls ly Russian
Ieadeis conceining lhis goaI.
3
Indeed, lhe evidence lo
dale suggesls lhal Moscov viII le ieIuclanl lo conis3
,#+ 0-5 12+."#+ +#,27.&/-( &- -276#0+ 1/+7#( '&."/2.
a sizalIe ieduclion in vhal il consideis lo le lhieals
lo Russian secuiily. Those lhieals hisl conpiise lhe
U.S./lhe Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiganizalion (NATO)
and China. eyond lhal, lhey aIso conpiise lhe nev
nucIeai pioIifeialois, and lhen possilIy leiioiisn.
Since lhe nev Russian defense docliine openIy ex3
*#7.( ."# 0,%#-. /1 -#' -276#0+ */'#+(9 ."# 0,%#-. /1
."#(# *+/6&1#+0./+(9 80-5 /1 '"/8 0+# 7/-7#-.+0.#,
in Russias neighloihood, viII piovide added ieasons
foi nol ieducing lhe nunlei of nucIeai veapons oi al
Ieasl Russias ieIiance on lhen.
4

This concIusion olviousIy conliadicls lhe ialhei
iosy expeclalions of nany U.S. anaIysls lhal lhe gieal
*/'#+( 70- (01#65 0-, 2-&60.#+0665 +#,27# -276#0+
veapons vilhoul expeiiencing any adveise conse3
quences. This concIusion nighl veII cause disnay
anong advocales of gIolaI zeio. ul Russian viiling,
olviousIy nol vilhoul ils ovn shoilconings, ienains
295
cenleied on lhe ieaI possiliIily of hghling vais fion
an infeiioi slialegic posilion. Ioi exanpIe, a iecenl
Russian ailicIe desciiling lhe need foi a fundanen3
laIIy nev univeisaI ainoied vehicIe slales lhal:
We nusl nol negIecl lhe pieseivalion of lhe capaliIi3
lies foi lhe iesloialion of lhe conlal capaliIily duiing
an exchange of nucIeai sliikes ly lhe veapons and
equipnenl (VVT) syslen. 4Y"%# "B% %GAE0[G%." 0Y
b%$A0., 0Y G$,, +%,"#*("'0.> $ "#00A &#0*A'.& G*,"
#$A'+E[ "$1% B%$#"> #'+ '",%EY 0Y #$+'0$("'F% (0."$G'U
.$"'0.> #%,"0#% '", (0GH$" ($A$H'E'"[> $.+ (0."'.*% "0
$((0GAE',B "B% (0GH$" G',,'0.,D -Y "B$" b'EE .0" 0(U
(*#> "B% A%#G',,'H'E'"[ 0Y "B% (0.+*(" 0Y $ A#%F%."'F%
.*(E%$# ,"#'1% H[ 2*,,'$> bB'(B ', +%(E$#%+ '. "B%
.%b Q'E'"$#[ ?0("#'.%> ,'GAE[ +0%,.T" G$1% ,%.,%D
The 198Os heId ieguIalions exanined lhese vaiianls of
lhe deveIopnenls of evenls. Today ieheaisaIs of opei3
alions lo iesloie conlal capaliIily aflei enpIoynenl
of nucIeai veapons aie acluaIIy nol leing conducled.
5

(enphasis ly aulhoi)
Moieovei, Russia has incoipoialed nucIeai vaif3
ighling scenaiios inlo ils exeicises in Luiope as in Za3
pad-2OO9 and in Asia in lhe Voslok-2O1O exeicise. In
an olheivise unienaikalIe 2OO8 inleiviev, CeneiaI
VIadinii oIdyiev, lhen Connandei in Chief of Rus3
sias Ciound Tioops, desciiled lhe nissions of Rus3
sias lank lioops as foIIovs:
Tank lioops aie enpIoyed piinaiiIy on nain axes lo
deIivei poveifuI spIilling allacks againsl lhe eneny
lo a gieal deplh. Having gieal iesislance lo danage-
pioducing eIenenls of veapons of nass desliuclion,
high hiepovei, and high noliIily and naneuveialiI3
ily, lhey aie capalIe of expIoiling lhe iesuIls of nucIeai
and hie sliikes lo lhe fuIIesl and achieving assigned
oljeclives of a lallIe oi opeialion in a shoil line.
6
296
Indeed, fion oIdyievs ienaiks ve nay discein
lhal he, and piesunalIy his coIIeagues, fuIIy expecl
lolh sides lo use nucIeai veapons as sliike veapons
in conlal opeialions. The connenls alove concein3
ing ainoied vehicIes poinl in lhe sane diieclion.
7

Al lhe sane line, an anaIysis of Russias cuiienl
lhinking aloul nucIeai issues ieveaIs ongoing and vig3
oious high-IeveI delales aloul nucIeai veapons. This
delale is evidenlIy Iinked lo lhe doneslic sliuggIe foi
piinacy lelveen lhe faclions aiound Iiine Minislei
VIadinii Iulin and Iiesidenl Dniliy Medvedev. In
olhei voids, one vilaI suljeclive facloi lhal viII diive
fuluie Russian lhinking aloul nucIeai veapons, poIi3
cies, and slialegy is lhe idenlily of lhe chief decision3
nakei, vhalevei his lilIe. In a syslen devoid of checks
and laIances, any denocialic conlioI ovei lhe ained
foices and vheie nany niIilaiy nen, and nayle ci3
viIian eIiles, sliII haiken foi a niIilaiy Ieadeiship Iike
lhal of SlaIin in WoiId Wai II, lhe peisonaIily, oul3
Iook, and lhinking of lhe Ieadei is of nuch noie ciili3
706 &8*/+.0-7# ."0- &( ."# 70(# &- 8/+# (.+27.2+#, 0-,
accounlalIe poIilies.
8
!"&( */&-. &( #%#- 8/+# 7/83
peIIing vhen ve ieaIize lhal lhe sliucluie of Russian
poIilics neans lhal lhis alsence of denocialic conlioIs
in defense poIicy geneiales a conslanl lenplalion lo
use niIilaiy foices lo soIve poIilicaI piolIens.
This delale conceining nucIeai veapons is nol onIy
visilIe in lhe conlioveisies suiiounding lhe iecenl de3
fense docliine of Ieliuaiy 2O1O, indeed, il piecedes
lhe pulIicalion of lhe docliine.
9
Il invoIves seveiaI
queslions ievoIving aiound nucIeai veapons. Iiisl,
il conpiises lhe queslion of using nucIeai veapons
&- 0 *+#%#-.&%# /+ #%#- *+##8*.&%# 8/,# &- (8066#+
oi so-caIIed IocaI vais lhal have hilheilo leen puieIy
297
convenlionaI vais. The pulIic delale legan in eainesl
in Oclolei 2OO9 vhen NikoIai Ialiushev, Secielaiy of
Russias Secuiily CounciI, loId an inleivievei lhal lhe
foilhconing defense docliine viII le anended lo aI3
Iov foi lhe possiliIily of pievenlive and pieenplive
hisl sliikes, incIuding nucIeai sliikes, even in lhe
7/-.#). /1 0 *2+#65 7/-%#-.&/-06 6/706 '0+ 0-, #%#-
0. ."# 6/'#+ 6#%#6 /1 /*#+0.&/-063.07.&7069 0( /**/(#,
lo slialegic, sliikes.
1O
This liiggeied a najoi pulIic de3
lale ovei lhose queslions lhal paiaIIeIed lhe piivale
delale anong Russias Ieadeis. AIlhough uIlinaleIy
lhe pulIished docliine onilled lo say lhese lhings, lhe
cilalion alove aloul ainoied vehicIes suggesls lhal
foi nany Ialiushevs vievs aie neveilheIess ieecled
lheie.
11
In addilion, lhe docliine vas acconpanied ly
a cIassihed pulIicalion on nucIeai issues lhal Iefl foi3
eign olseiveis in lhe daik aloul vhen Russia nighl
oi nighl nol go nucIeai and foi vhal puiposes and
nissions.
>. ."# (08# .&8#9 0 7/-72++#-. 0-, +#60.#, ,#3
lale lecane pulIic lelveen Iulin and Medvedev as
lo vhelhei oi nol Russia needs lo luiId noie offen3
sive nucIeai veapons lhan il had oiiginaIIy pIanned
in oidei lo neel lhe aIIeged chaIIenge posed ly U.S.
nissiIe defenses in Laslein Luiope. Lven as Medve3
dev vas haiIing lhe piogiess leing nade in negolial3
ing lhis liealy, saying lhal a hnaI veision vas cIose
al hand, Iulin decided lo shov vho vas loss and lo
pIay lo lhe havks gaIIeiy. On Decenlei 28, 2OO9, in
VIadivoslok, he said lhal:
The piolIen is lhal oui Aneiican pailneis aie deveI3
oping nissiIe defenses, and ve aie nol, . . . ul lhe
&((2#( /1 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# 0-, /11#-(&%# '#0*/-( 0+#
cIoseIy inleiconnecled..Theie couId le a dangei lhal
having ciealed an unlieIIa againsl offensive sliike
298
(5(.#8(9 /2+ *0+.-#+( 805 7/8# ./ 1##6 7/8*6#.#65
safe. Aflei lhe laIance is lioken, lhey viII do vhalev3
ei lhey vanl and giov noie aggiessive. . . . In oidei lo
pieseive a laIance, vhiIe ve aienl pIanning lo luiId a
nissiIe defense of oui ovn, as ils veiy expensive and
ils efhciency is nol quile cIeai yel, ve have lo deveIop
offensive sliike syslens.
12
ul al lhe Maich 5, 2O1O, expanded session of lhe
Defense Minisliy CoIIegiun, Medvedev nade il cIeai
lhal Russia does nol need lo inciease ils offensive
nucIeai capaliIily any fuilhei lhan vas oiiginaIIy
pIanned.
13
Thus lhe divisions lelveen lhe lvo nen
on lhis issue aie oul in lhe open. ul lheii iesoIulion
viII lake pIace in a lough conlexl foi innovalive and
nonleIIigeienl poIicynaking vheie sliong liends foi
giealei ieIiance on nucIeai veapons, iegaidIess of
quanlily, viII exisl.
In lhe doneslic conlexl, lhe iecenl adnission lhal
lhe effoil lo luiId a piofessionaI Ainy vas a faiI3
uie and lhal Russia is ieluining lo consciiplion has
piofound oljeclive consequences foi oveiaII defense
poIicy.
14
Indeed, Russia is even iadicaIIy culling lhe
nunlei of conliacl posilions in vays lhal do nol af3
fecl (so il says) ils conlal capaliIily.
15
As iegaids
nucIeai issues, lhis faiIuie neans lhal Russia had lo
foisake lhe diean of a piofessionaI highIy educaled
and nolivaled Ainy capalIe of hghling a high-lech
convenlionaI, and nosl IikeIy, IocaI vai. WhiIe lheie
viII undoulledIy le pockels of exceIIence, lhe ensuing
Russian Ainy viII piolalIy le unalIe lo fuIIy opli3
nize lhe use of high-lech syslens and viII le pIagued
ly Iov noiaIe, educalion, heaIlh IeveIs, Iaige-scaIe
diafl evasion, and coiiuplion. This oulcone suggesls
lhal Russia nay veII have lo invoke nucIeai foices in
nany cases lo sulslilule foi vhal vouId olheivise
299
have leen a nuch noie iolusl high-lech convenlionaI
capaliIily and deleiienl.
Russian defense indusliys concuiienl faiIuie lo
nodeinize lo lhe poinl vheie il can salsify lolh lhe
goveinnenl and lhe ained foices denands foi seiiaI
pioduclion of ieIialIe high-lech veapons and pIal3
foins and syslen inlegialion capaliIilies ieinfoices
lhis IikeIy oulcone, and suggesls lhal Russia viII onIy
pailiaIIy ieaIize ils pIan of a conpiehensive nod3
einizalion of lhe ained foices ly 2O2O. Heie again,
ialhei lhan nodeinize lhe ained foices ly 1O peicenl
a yeai lo 2O2O as pieviousIy pIanned, Medvedev is
nov denanding lhal 3O peicenl of lhe ained foices
veaponiy le nodeinized ly 2O15, a suie sign of con3
linuing faiIuie.
16
Whal nakes lhis oulcone even noie
IikeIy is lhe facl lhal, due lo lhe inpacl of lhe cui3
ienl ciisis on lhe lackvaid and oveiIy slalisl Russian
econony, ludgelaiy spending viII le consliained al
Ieasl lhiough 2O15 if nol 2O2O.
17
Indeed, lhe iecenlIy
appioved Slale Ainanenl Iiogian fion 2O11-2O
spends onIy 13 liiIIion iulIes lo ieain lhe ained foic3
es, a hguie lhal lhe Acling Defense Minisliy Chief of
Ainanenls, Lieulenanl CeneiaI OIeg IioIov, cIains
viII onIy aIIov foi nodeinizalion of lhe slialegic
nucIeai foices, aii, and aii defense foices, Ieaving lhe
Navy and Ainy undei-hnanced.
18
Nol suipiisingIy,
lhe niIilaiy denanded anolhei 23 liiIIion iulIes lo
nodeinize lhe Ainy lhiough 2O2O and lo nodeinize
aII of lhe ained foices and lheii acconpanying infia3
sliucluie.
19
!"&( *+#((2+# 06+#0,5 1/+7#, ."# A&-0-7#
Minisliy lo nake concessions lo lhe niIiaiy, foi in3
slance vheieas defense spending slood al 2.6 peicenl
of gioss doneslic pioducl (CDI) in 2O1O, in 2O11-12 il
shouId inciease lo 2.9 peicenl of CDI and 3 peicenl in
2O13, aflei vhich il viII giov lo 3.1 peicenl, Ieading lo
3OO
incieased puichases of veapons and haidvaie.
2O
ul
lhis did nol appease lhe ained foices. Lven vilhin
lhose consliainls, ve see iising defense spending as a
peicenlage of lhe slale ludgel and possilIy lhe oveiaII
econony, i.e., signs of sliucluiaI niIilaiizalion. Moie3
ovei, ve can aIso see iising piessuie ly lhe niIilaiy on
lhe ludgel. Hovevei, lhe goveinnenl has gone even
fuilhei dovn lhis ioad.
LaiIiei faiIuies in lhe defense secloi aie nov genei3
aling lhe lendencies lovaid niIilaiizalion (aIleil al a
nuch Iovei IeveI lhan in Soviel lines) lo conpensale
foi lhese faiIuies in Iulins Russia and lhe conlinuing
ciisis of lhe econony and defense secloi. As a iecenl
Russian ailicIe olseived, fion 2OOO-1O defense spend3
ing has gone fion 141 liIIion iulIes lo 2,O25 liiIIion
iulIes, vilhoul Ieading lo an equivaIenl giovlh in de3
Iiveiies as lhese hguies veie consuned ly iising cosls
foi nodeinizing oId nodeIs and foi nev nodeIs as
veII as Iosses due lo coiiuplion.
21
Richaid Weilz has
sunnaiized lhe liajecloiy of defense spending since
2OO7.
In 2OO7 lhe Russian goveinnenl appioved a $24O
liIIion ieainanenl piogian lhal viII iun lhiough
2O15. In Ieliuaiy 2OO8 Russias Minisliy of Defense
0--/2-7#, ."0. &. '/26, 12+."#+ &-7+#0(# ."# 8&6&.0+5
ludgel ly aloul 2O peicenl, aIIocaling appioxinaleIy
one liiIIion iulIes (aloul $4O liIIion) lo niIilaiy spend3
ing in 2OO8. IoIIoving lhe Augusl 2OO8 vai in Ceoigia,
lhe Russian goveinnenl announced il vouId inciease
lhe defense ludgel yel again in oidei lo iepIace lhe
vaipIanes and olhei equipnenl Iosl in lhe conicl as
'#66 0( ./ 077#6#+0.# ."# 07=2&(&.&/- /1 -#' '#0*/-(
designed since lhe Soviel Unions dissoIulion. This
yeai |2OO8j lhe Russian niIilaiy viII spend ovei $4O
liIIion. The hguie foi 2OO9 shouId exceed $5O liIIion.
22
3O1
Lven lhough defense spending has leen sleadiIy
iising and vas piojecled lefoie lhe econonic ciisis
lo iise sliII faslei, lhe vai in Ceoigia and lhe visilIe
aninosily lo Aneiica has Ied lhe iegine lo enlaik
on a ieluin lo quasi-SlaIinisl niIilaiy pIanning. Ncza-
tisinaqa Gazc|a iepoiled lhal lhe Minisliy of Defense
has aIieady legun voiking on a 1O-yeai pIan foi ains
piocuienenl and ie-equipnenl fion 2O11-2O lhal
vas lo le senl lo lhe Duna foi appiovaI in 2O1O. This
piogian giovs oul of lhe faiIuie of lhe cuiienl ains
piogian fion 2OO6-15 lhal vas ludgeled al 5 liiIIion
iulIes ($155 liIIion). TypicaIIy, lhal pIan pioved lo le
ineffeclive and expensive, Ieading lo deIays in inlio3
ducing nev ainanenls.
23
Indeed, Nol a singIe one
of lhe pievious ains piogians vas fuIhIIed even al
2O peicenl of lhe pIanned IeveI. Lven lhe exisling pio3
gian, vhich cane aloul duiing lhe yeais of oiI-saIe
piospeiily, is nol leing fuIhIIed.
24
Yel despile lhis conlinuing iecoid of faiIuie, il has
nol onIy Ied lo evei giealei slale conlioI of lhal secloi
lul lo neo-SlaIinisl ansveis. Lven in Iale 2OO8 vhen
ciisis vas appaienl, Moscov soughl lo acceIeiale lhe
ulleiIy faiIed 2OO6-15 pIan and conpiess il lo le con3
pIeled ly 2O11 vhen lhe nev pIan, vhich ceilainIy
enlaiIs even noie slale conlioI and lhus guaianleed
suloplinaI oulcones, is lo legin.
25
Thanks lo lhe eco3
nonic ciisis, lhe unending inalion in lhe Russian de3
fense indusliy and ils inaliIily lo funclion in a naikel
econony, lhe goveinnenl hisl had lo cul lhe 2OO9 de3
fense ludgel ly 15 peicenl and, despile ils deniaIs, cul
piocuienenl.
26
y }uIy 2OO9, funding culs veie han3
peiing lhe acquisilion of nanpovei foi lhe pIanned
-#' *#+80-#-. +#0,&-#(( 2-&.(9 7/-(.+27.&/- /1 ."#
Yuri Dc|gcru|q cIass of laIIislic nucIeai sulnaiines
(SSNs), and funding foi lhe deveIopnenl of foieign
3O2
navaI lases.
27
Yel lhe defense secloi iefused lo accepl
lhis oulcone as hnaI.
Delales ovei defense spending cIeaiIy did nol end
in 2OO8 oi even vhen lhey veie oiiginaIIy supposed
lo end in 2OO9. Thus lhe Secuiily CounciI vas iepoil3
edIy supposed lo accepl lhe nalionaI secuiily slialegy
al ils neeling on Ieliuaiy 2O, 2OO9.
28
ul lhal neeling
did nol occui unliI Maich 24, suggesling fuilhei oljec3
lions. AppaienlIy one najoi ieason foi lhe poslpone3
nenl of lhe appeaiance of lhe secuiily slialegy vas lhe
conlinuing econonic ciisis. Il cIeaiIy had voisened lo
lhe poinl vheie lhe oveiaII econony shiunk ly 1O.1
peicenl fion }anuaiy-}une 2OO9 and 8.5 peicenl foi
lhe yeai.
29
y aII accounls, lhis foiced lhe diafleis and
lhe Secuiily CounciI, nol lo nenlion lhose vho vouId
"0%# ./ 0**+/%# ."# ,/728#-.9 ./ 0((#+. ."# &8*/+3
lance of econonic faclois as a pail of secuiily. Thus in
his addiess lo lhe Secuiily CounciI on Maich 24, 2OO9,
Medvedev expIicilIy said lhal econonic secuiily vas
a pail of nalionaI secuiily.
3O
ConsequenlIy, a najoi sliuggIe has lioken oul
'&."&- ."# ,#1#-(# 0-, ,#1#-(# &-,2(.+&06 (#7./+ /%#+
077#(( ./ +#(/2+7#(9 0-, &. 76#0+65 &-%/6%#( ."# #11/+. ./
luy veapons alioad, vhich has louched off a najoi
delale vilhin lhese lvo connunilies on lhe viilues
of leing aulaikic oi of luying alioad. The lvo key
issues foi nov aie lhe anounl of noney lo le spenl
on niIilaiy nodeinizalion and vhelhei oi nol lo luy
foieign veapons syslens. IioIov and his aIIies cIeaiIy
lioughl sulslanliaI piessuie lo leai upon lhe govein3
nenl, lul lhey veie opeialing in a cIinale lased on
lhe piecedenl of iising oulIays foi piocuienenl. The
goveinnenl is cuiienlIy opeialing undei lhe 2OO6-15
piogian. Il vas supposed lo cosl 5 liiIIion iulIes oi
$155 liIIion. The oiiginaI piogian foi 2O11-2O lhal
3O3
Medvedev announced in May 2O1O sulslanliaIIy in3
cieased lhal spending lo 13 liiIIion iulIes oi $42O liI3
Iion, noie lhan doulIing lhe pieceding hguie. ul, as
A+/6/% (0&,9 ."&( '/26, #((#-.&0665 ,#*+&%# ."# >+85
and Navy of funding foi piocuienenl lhal vouId aI3
Iov il lo nake up foi a geneialion of negIecl. Inslead
he advocaled an inciease of lhe piogian lo 36 liiIIion
iulIes foi lhe enliie ained foices oi $1.161 liiIIion
ovei lhe 2O11-2O decade. If lhis pioposaI vas unac3
ceplalIe, lhen al a nininun a piogian cosling 28 liiI3
Iion iulIes oi $92O liIIion vouId aIIov lhe Ainy lo
ieain.
31
AIlhough nany Duna depulies, ofhciaIs, and
connenlalois, incIuding Depuly Iiine Minislei Sei3
gei Ivanov vho foineiIy supeivised defense indus3
liy, deiided IioIovs denands as vishfuI lhinking, he
did in facl pievaiI. VIadinii Iopovkin, IioIovs loss,
loId audiences al lhe Iainloiough Shov lhal lhe gov3
einnenl vouId spend 2O liiIIion iulIes oi $62O liI3
Iion noie on piocuienenl, Iess lhan IioIov asked foi,
lul sliII a Iaige inciease. Undei lhese ievised hguies,
spending on ieseaich and deveIopnenl (R&D) and
piocuienenl viII exceed $5O liIIion annuaIIy. Ieihaps
noie inpoilanlIy, lolaI Russian defense spending nay
ieach 4-5 peicenl of CDI, noie lhan any olhei najoi
povei and a sign of cieeping sliucluiaI niIilaiizalion.
Neilhei can ve doull lhe high iale of defense spend3
ing in lhe annuaI ludgel.
32
Iinance Minislei AIexei
Kudiin iecenlIy conceded lhal ludgelaiy oulIays on
nalionaI defense vouId iise in 2O1O ly 13.3 peicenl,
vhiIe spending on nalionaI secuiily and Iav enfoice3
nenl vouId go up ly 8.8 peicenl. The oveiaII iise in
lhose seclois lhiough 2O13 viII le 22.1 peicenl. Since
spending on heaIlh caie, cuIluie, cinenalogiaphy, and
educalion aie aIso going up ly hefly anounls, geneiaI
3O4
slale expendiluies viII supposedIy faII ly 4.5 peicenl,
aIIegedIy lhiough alliilion of luieaucials ly 2O pei3
cenl lhiough 2O13, ieducing lhe iise of adninislialive
cosls, and lhe piivalizalions nenlioned alove.
33

In addilion, Iopovkin announced pIans lo spend
."&( '&-,1066 ./ *+/72+# 0 ."/2(0-, -#' "#6&7/*.#+( &-
len yeais incIuding heavy Mi-26 heIicopleis lhal can
caiiy 25 lons of caigo oi noie lhan 1OO passengeis foi
shoil dislances.
34
!"# -##, 1/+ (27" '#0*/-( &( =2&.#
visilIe in lhe Noilh Caucasus, vhich is on hie. Like3
vise, Russia viII aIso piocuie 2O nev heavy AN-124
Rus|an lianspoil aiiciafl and 6O nev T-5O hflh genei3
alion sleaIlh jel hghleis slailing in 2O13. MeanvhiIe,
Russia is aIieady depIoying nev RS-24 inleiconlinen3
laI laIIislic nissiIes (ICMs).
35
Thus ly 2O13, Russian
defense spending viII le 2 liiIIion iulIes noie lhan
il is loday and iise ly 6O peicenl ieIalive lo 2O1O hg3
uies. These suns viII go IaigeIy lo nucIeai, navaI, and
aii foices.
36
Indeed, lhe ludgel lhiough 2O13 iaises
piocuienenl ly 5O peicenl alove lhe eaiIiei hguies.
37

Hovevei, if one lakes inlo accounl lhe cosls of acluaIIy
piocuiing lhese aiipIanes, ships, elc., in ieaIily ialhei
IillIe can le luiIl (and cosls viII iise and inefhciencies,
alsenl iefoin, viII conlinue lo add lo lhese incieased
cosls ) and uIlinaleIy lhe depIoynenl of hundieds
of aiipIanes and dozens of ships ly 2O15 and 2O2O is
quile unIikeIy lo naleiiaIize.
38
OlviousIy, Iucialive and pioduclive inveslnenl
viII le squeezed in lhe coning ludgels as is aIieady
lhe case. Il is nosl IikeIy lhal vilhoul signihcanl gov3
einnenlaI iefoin lhese incieased oulIays viII le in3
efhcienlIy and ineffecliveIy spenl and viII uIlinaleIy
inciease inalionaiy piessuies. WhiIe lhese piocuie3
nenls pIans veie slinuIaled ly ieaI lhieals in lhe
Noilh Caucasus and lo lhe aIIeged lhieal piesenled ly
3O5
NATO/U.S. and Chinese aii and olhei sliike capaliIi3
lies in leins of lolh aii defense and nucIeai syslens,
lhey ceilainIy add consideialIy lo lhe luiden on lhe
Russian econony. If lhe nev liealy faiIs lo achieve ial3
ihcalion, as appeais quile possilIe, Russia nay decide
il needs lo undeigo even noie nucIeai and conven3
lionaI luiIdups fion lhis IeveI.
Lven laking iising defense ludgels inlo accounl,
lhe inefhciency of nuch of lhal spending, lhe inhei3
enl inalionaiy piessuies in lhe Russian econony, es3
*#7&0665 &- ."# +0' 80.#+&06( (#7./+9 ."# &-#*.&.2,# /1
lhe defense indusliiaI secloi, and ils vuIneialiIily lo
lhe lhefl of 3O-4O peicenl of lhe defense ludgel, vhich
has nol decieased despile a vigoious anli-coiiuplion
canpaign, suggesls a coiiesponding and ongoing
sliucluiaI inaliIily lo ieaIize lhe goaIs indicaled in
lhe pIans foi nodeinizing lhe Russian ained foices
ly 2O15 oi ly 2O2O.
39
Moieovei, given lhe consliainls
on lhe ludgel even undei incieased defense spend3
ing, Russia viII piolalIy nol le alIe lo affoid lhe nec3
essaiy oulIays foi lhis conpiehensive lechnoIogicaI
nodeinizalion of lhe ained foices and viII have lo
uliIize nucIeai capaliIilies noie lhan olheis do. Those
capaliIilies aie aIso undei piessuie as lhe uIavas
soiiy expeiience indicales (lhe uIava is Russias nev
sulnaiine Iaunched laIIislic nissiIe |SLMj and, as of
ApiiI 2O1O, il has faiIed duiing aII of ils hisl 12 lesls).
So ve nay IikeIy see Russia assigning lo ils nucIeai
foices a lioadei iange of nissions lhan nighl olhei3
vise le peifoined ly convenlionaI foices.
4O
3O6
=L8 54=-;547 !8632-=R 6;5=8Z=
eyond doneslic faclois lhal geneiale consid3
eialIe piessuie lo conlinue ieIying on a possilIy
snaIIei, aIleil sonevhal inpioved nucIeai deleiienl,
lhe inpeialives of lolh exleinaI liends and oveiaII
Russian nalionaI secuiily poIicy aIso sliongIy incIine
lovaid enhanced ieIiance on nucIeai veapons. The
lhiee exleinaI liends aie: U.S. nissiIe defenses inilia3
lives, lhe iise of China, and, al Ieasl in sone quaileis,
an incieased concein aloul nissiIe and nucIeai pio3
Iifeialion, a phenonenon lhal Russia acluaIIy expecls
lo inciease ly 2O2O if ils nev defense docliine is a ieIi3
alIe guide.
41
ul lhese phenonena aie peiceived and
nedialed lhiough a unique cognilive and ideoIogicaI
Iandscape lhal undeiIies and diives Russian nalionaI
secuiily poIicy.
42
IunlIy slaled, Moscov appioaches ils secuiily
fion lhe leIief lhal vhiIe najoi vai is nol IikeIy,
snaIIei vais foughl ovei access lo iesouices, espe3
ciaIIy eneigy, aiound ils loidei aie incieasing in Iike3
Iihood. Woise, lhese vais aie appioaching Russias
loideis. Iuilheinoie, lhese vais can easiIy giov inlo
najoi conagialions vheie lhe use of nucIeai veap3
ons couId veII le conlenpIaled oi even inpIenenl3
ed.
43
The afoienenlioned exeicises in 2OO9-1O ieecled
such possiliIilies. Indeed, Russian eIiles leIieve lhal
if Russia Iacked nucIeai veapons, NATO vouId lhen
feeI enloIdened lo inleivene in sone vaiianl of a
Kosovo-Iike scenaiio in lhose conicls, foi exanpIe,
Ceoigia in 2OO8.
44
In olhei voids, il is lhe possession
of nucIeai veapons aIone lhal gives Russia lhe neans
lo decIaie lhe Connonvealh of Independenl Slales
(CIS) off Iinils lo foieign poveis, nainlain psycho3
IogicaI and poIilicaI equaIily vilh lhe Uniled Slales,
3O7
asseil Russias idenlily as a gieal povei, and nosl
ciuciaIIy lack up lhal cIain vilh a ieaI foice. Russias
nucIeai capaliIily ensuies Russias slialegic indepen3
dence as an inleinalionaI acloi, lul even noie lo lhe
poinl, ils idenlily as a liuIy soveiiegn slale, i.e., one
lhal nakes poIicy sliiclIy on lhe lasis of ils ovn caI3
7260.&/- /1 -0.&/-06 &-.#+#(.9 -/. ."# 07.&/-( /1 /."#+
slales.
Iuilheinoie, ofhciaI docunenls Iike lhe nev de3
fense docliine and lhe 2OO9 nalionaI secuiily concepl
#)*6&7.65 (.0.# ."0. ."# &-7&,#-7# /1 804/+ */'#+ +#6&3
ance on foice and lhe lypassing of lhe Uniled Nalions
(UN) is iising, naking lhe oullieak of vais noie
ialhei lhan Iess IikeIy.
45
Thus Defense Minislei Analo3
Iy Seidyukov loId lhe Defense CoIIegiun in 2OO9 lhal:
The niIilaiy-poIilicaI silualion has leen chaiaclei3
ized ly lhe U.S. Ieadeiships sliiving lo achieve gIolaI
Ieadeiship and ly an expansion and luiIdup of niIi3
laiy piesence of lhe Uniled Slales and ils NATO aI3
Iies in iegions conliguous vilh Russia. The Aneiican
sides aspiialions veie diiecled lovaid gaining access
lo iav-naleiiaI, eneigy, and olhei iesouices of CIS
counliies. Iiocesses ained al ciovding Russia |oulj
1+/8 ."# 0+#0 /1 &.( .+0,&.&/-06 &-.#+#(.( '#+# 07.&%#65
suppoiled. InleinalionaI leiioiisn, ieIigious exlien3
isn, and lhe iIIegaI ains liade seiiousIy inuenced
lhe niIilaiy-poIilicaI silualion. They have leen nani3
fesled noie and noie oflen in counliies loideiing on
Russia. Ceoigias allack on Soulh Osselia vas a diiecl
lhieal lo RI nalionaI inleiesls and niIilaiy secuiily.
This allenpl lo sellIe lhe conicl ly foice vas ained
hisl and foienosl al deslaliIizing lhe silualion in lhe
Caucasus. ;. "B% bB0E% "B% $.$E[,', 0Y "B% G'E'"$#[U
A0E'"'($E ,'"*$"'0. A%#G'", $ (0.(E*,'0. $H0*" "B%
grnwIng !Ikc!Ihnnd nf armcd cnn0Icts and thcIr pnU
"%."'$E +$.&%# "0 0*# ,"$"% |Aulhois LnphasisjD
\`
3O8
Nol onIy did Seidyukov accepl lhis CeneiaI Slaff
lhieal assessnenl, he inlensihed il ly saying lhal lhe
IikeIihood of lhieals lo Russia in lhe foin of vais and
niIilaiy conicls is incieasing. Yel, vhen he spoke, lhe
("0+# /1 8/,#+- 0+808#-.( &- ."# 0+8#, 1/+7#( /-65
nade up 1O peicenl of lheii aisenaI. Al lhal line, 2OO8,
onIy 19 peicenl of defense spending vas eainaiked
foi ie-equipping lhe Ainy and Navy vilh lhal leing a
lhiid piioiily lehind oiganizalionaI iefoin and nain3
lenance of lhe nucIeai foices.
47
So lhe piioiily of lhe
nucIeai deleiienl vhiIe Russia undeigoes nodeiniza3
lion is aIieady evidenl fion heie. Neilhei has lhal pii3
oiily changed since 2OO8 despile lhe cuiienl hnanciaI
ciisis oi lhe inciease in nucIeai spending discussed
alove.
eyond lhe piesupposilion of acluaI niIilaiy-
poIilicaI conicl vilh lhe Wesl and China (lhe Iallei
leing lhe lhieal lhal ve daie nol speak of), a conslanl
107./+ &- ."# +#60.&/-("&* '&." ."# ?#(. &++#(*#7.&%# /1
&.( */6&.&706 .#8*#+0.2+# 0. 0-5 .&8# &( ."# 107. ."0. ."#
nucIeai foices of lolh sides ienain fiozen in a posluie
/1 82.206 ,#.#++#-7# ."0. &8*6&#( 0 *+&/+ 0,%#+(0+&06
+#60.&/-("&* ."0. 7/26, #0(&65 ,#.#+&/+0.# 12+."#+ 2-3
,#+ 0-5 0-, 066 7&+728(.0-7#( 0-, ,#%/6%# &-./ ."0.
kind of shooling vai.
48
This poinl is ciilicaI: The piol3
Ienalic naluie of lhe liIaleiaI ieIalionship, jusl as vas
lhe case duiing lhe CoId Wai~aIleil Iess inlenseIy lo3
day~is nol due lo deleiience. Ralhei, deleiience is a
nanifeslalion of a piioi, undeiIying, conpiehensive,
and fundanenlaI poIilicaI anlagonisn in vhich Rus3
(&0 "0( (#..6#, 2*/- ,#.#++#-7# 0( 0 */6&75 0-, (.+0.3
egy lecause lhal slialegy expiesses ils foundalionaI
piesupposilion of conicl vilh Aneiica and NATO.
49

The fundanenlaI lasis of lhe iivaIiy vilh Wash3
inglon is poIilicaI and slens fion lhe naluie of lhe
3O9
Russian poIilicaI syslen vhich cannol suivive in ils
*+#(#-. (.+27.2+# '&."/2. ."0. *+#(2**/(&.&/- /1 7/-3
icl and enenies, and a ievisionisl denand foi equaI3
ily vilh lhe Uniled Slales so lhal il is lied dovn ly
Russian conceins and inleiesls. Iion Russias sland3
poinl, lhe onIy vay il can have secuiily vis-a-vis lhe
Uniled Slales and Luiope given lhal piesupposilion
of conicl is if Aneiica is shackIed lo a conlinualion
of lhe nuluaI hoslage ieIalionship lased on nuluaI
deleiience lhal chaiacleiized lhe CoId Wai, so lhal
il cannol acl uniIaleiaIIy. Al lhe sane line, Luiope
nusl le inlinidaled ly lhe speclei of Russian niIilaiy
povei vhich, given piesenl ieaIilies, neans nucIeai
veapons. To lhe degiee lhal lolh sides aie shackIed
lo lhis nuluaI hoslage ieIalionship, Russia gains a
neasuie of iesliainl oi even of conlioI ovei U.S. poI3
icy. Ioi, as Ialiick Moigan has olseived, lhis kind of
cIassic deleiience culs lhiough lhe conpIexilies of
needing lo have a fuII undeislanding of oi diaIogue
vilh lhe olhei side. Inslead il enalIes a slale, in lhis
case Russia, lo sinpIify ly dic|a|ing, lhe opponenls
piefeiences |IlaIics in lhe oiiginaIj.
5O
Thanks lo such
a nuluaI hoslage ieIalionship, Russian Ieadeis see aII
olhei slales vho vish lo allack lhen oi even lo expIoil
inleinaI ciises Iike Chechnya as leing deleiied. Theie3
1/+#9 -276#0+ '#0*/-( +#80&- 0 7+&.&706 7/8*/-#-. /1
slialegic slaliIily and, as Iess openIy slaled, foi giving
Russia ioon lo acl fieeIy in voiId affaiis.
51

Indeed, Moscov sees ils nucIeai aisenaI as a kind
of aII-puipose deleiienl lhal has deleiied lhe Uniled
Slales and NATO fion inleivening in such conicls
as lhe Chechen vais and Ceoigia. NeveilheIess, ils
niIilaiy and poIilicaI Ieadeis, e.g., Seidyukov, lhe
docliine vhich is nov ofhciaI poIicy, and CoIoneI-
CeneiaI NikoIai SoIovlsov, Connandei in Chief of
31O
lhe Slialegic MissiIe (Rockel) Ioices in 2OO8 aII chaige
lhal lhieals lo Russia aie nuIlipIying. Thus SoIovlsov
aigued lhal.
Sone polenliaI lhieals lo lhe defense and secuiily of
lhe Russian Iedeialion, incIuding Iaige-scaIe ones, ie3
nain, and in sone seclois aie inlensifying. Moieovei,
lhe possiliIily cannol le iuIed oul lhal najoi ained
conicl couId aiise neai Russias loideis, vhich viII
affecl ils secuiily inleiesls, oi lhal lheie couId le a
diiecl niIilaiy lhieal lo oui counliys secuiily. This
is giaphicaIIy iIIuslialed ly lhe niIilaiy aggiession
unIeashed ly Ceoigia oveinighl fion 7 lo 8 Augusl
againsl Soulh Osselia.
52
?"&6# (27" (.0.#8#-.( +#*+#(#-. ."# 10-.0(5 '/+6,
of lhe Russian niIilaiy vheie lhieals aie aIvays iis3
ing despile lhe pIain evidence of Weslein deniIilai3
izalion~and lhey aIso onil lo nenlion lhal Ceoigia
neilhei allacked Russia noi in facl slailed lhe vai lhal
vas cIeaiIy a Russian piovocalion~his ienaiks do
08*65 2-,#+(7/+# ."# &8*/+.0-7# /1 ,#.#++#-7# 0-,
lhe peinanenl sense of leing lhieal lhal diives Rus3
sian poIicy. Hence, lhe need foi deleiience, piinaiiIy
lhough nol excIusiveIy of lhe Uniled Slales, al lhe piice
of accepling lhal Russia loo, is deleiied fion a nucIeai
sliike on lhe Uniled Slales (oi Luiope oi China).
In ieluin foi accepling lhal il loo is siniIaiIy de3
leiied, Russia posluIales as one of lhe fundanenlaI
coioIIaiies of ils poIicy and slialegy lhal il nusl ielain
a capaliIily lo inlinidale and deslioy Luiope vilh
ils nucIeai and olhei nissiIes. This is vhy lhe Rus3
(&0-( "0%# (27" +#6&0-7# 2*/- .07.&706 -276#0+ '#0*3
ons (TNW) no nallei lhe cosl. Thus vhiIe Ceinany,
IoIand, and Noivay have caIIed on lhe Uniled Slales
lo ienove ils TNW fion Luiope, Russian niIilaiy
311
Ieadeis Iike Lieulenanl CeneiaI Yevgeny ushinsky,
foinei head of lhe Defense Minisliys InleinalionaI
LegaI Depailnenl, aigue lhal Russia shouId onIy en3
lei inlo negolialions on TNW in case of paiily in con3
venlionaI ainanenls lelveen Russia and lhe Uniled
Slales, i.e., nevei.
53
This is lecause TNW aie Moscovs
deleiienl in a silualion of convenlionaI infeiioiily Iike
lhe piesenl.
54
Woise yel, lhe Navy pIans lo inlioduce
nev TNW in lhe foin of nucIeai ciuise nissiIes on ils
sulnaiines.
55
In any case, as Svedish Ioieign Minis3
lei CaiI iIdl has slaled iegaiding Russian lhieals in
lhe aIlic: Accoiding lo lhe infoinalion lo vhich ve
"0%# 077#((9 ."#+# 0+# 06+#0,5 .07.&706 -276#0+ '#0*3
ons in lhe KaIiningiad aiea. They aie Iocaled lolh al
and in lhe vicinily of unils leIonging lo lhe Russian
eel,
56
This neans lhal Russia has effecliveIy vio3
Ialed lhe ush-YeIlsin IiesidenliaI NucIeai Inilialives
of 1991-92, vhich laiied TNW fion navaI vesseIs.
IinaIIy, Chief of Slaff CeneiaI NikoIai Makaiov has
pulIicIy slaled lhal Russia viII ielain ils TNW as Iong
as Luiope is packed vilh ainanenls as a guaianlee
of Russian secuiily and lhal piioiily of funding viII le
diiecled lo Russias nucIeai aisenaI.
57
In olhei voids, leIieving a pricri lhal Luiope is lhe
sile of a piesunplive eneny aclion againsl il, Russia
,#80-,( 0( 0 7/-,&.&/- /1 &.( (#72+&.5 ."0. ."# +#(. /1
Luiope le insecuie. Russias defense docliine openIy
says lhal lhe Uniled Slales and NATO iepiesenl lhe
nain lhieals lo Russian secuiily and lhal Washinglon
viII conlinue lo seek niIilaiy supienacy and disie3
gaid inleinalionaI Iav foi a geneialion.
58
A2+."#+8/+#9
unIike lhe Uniled Slales, Russia is engaged in a con3
piehensive nodeinizalion and ienevaI of aII of ils
nucIeai veapons, cIeaiIy in lhe leIief lhal il needs lo
delei Aneiica ly niIilaiy neans, and nayle even lo
312
hghl using such veapons. ConsequenlIy, lheie viII le
#-/+8/2( /**/(&.&/- ./ 0-5 *60-( 1/+ 12+."#+ +#,273
lions oi cuilaiInenl of lhis nodeinizalion piogian.
Likevise, Moscov has consislenlIy said lhal lhe
depIoynenl of U.S. nissiIe defenses in Luiope and
Asia viII disiupl exisling laIances of slialegic foices
and undeinine gIolaI and iegionaI slaliIily.
59
Moscov
aIso liied haid lo Iink lhe nev liealy lo lhe ienovaI oi
nissiIe defenses fion CenliaI and Laslein Luiope.
6O

In addilion, Russias Ieadeis openIy conlend lhal one
cannol discuss Luiopean secuiily vilhoul laking inlo
accounl lhe nissiIe defense issue oi lhe ConvenlionaI
Ioices in Luiope (CIL) Tiealy.
61
CeilainIy, Russian of3
hciaIs see lhe veaponizalion of space, lhe inlegialion
of space and leiiesliiaI capaliIilies, nissiIe defenses,
lhe ReIialIe RepIacenenl Weapons (RRW), and lhe
U.S. gIolaI sliike slialegy as a pail of a syslenalic,
conpiehensive slialegy lo lhiealen Russia. As IaveI
Iodvig has olseived:
One of lhe consequences of lhis |U.S. niIilaiy slial3
egyj is lhal if lhe pionises heId ly lhe ievoIulion in
niIilaiy affaiis naleiiaIize, even inconpIeleIy, lhey
nay signihcanlIy Iovei lhe lhieshoId of niIilaiy in3
leivenlion. And lhis is exaclIy lhe oulcone lhal Russia
is voiiied aloul, foi il leIieves lhal lhe nev capaliIi3
lies nighl open lhe vay lo a noie aggiessive inleiven3
lionisl poIicy of lhe Uniled Slales and NATO lhal nay
veII chaIIenge Russias inleiesls in vaiious iegions
and especiaIIy in aieas cIose lo lhe Russian loideis.
62
So in iesponse, Moscov nusl lhiealen Luiope. In3
deed, Ioieign Minislei Seigei Laviov iepealedIy has
invoked lhe nov haliluaI, lul no Iess nendacious,
chaige lhal nissiIe defenses in Luiope, syslens lhal
aIIegedIy used lo le ieguIaled ly liIaleiaI agieenenls
313
lo nainlain paiily aie nov leing inlioduced cIose lo
Russias loideis, lheiely iupluiing lhal paiily in Lu3
iope and eIsevheie.
63
Duiing his 2OO8 liip lo IoIand,
Laviov venl even fuilhei, saying lhal,
Ioi nany decades, lhe lasis foi slialegic slaliIily and
secuiily in lhe voiId vas paiily lelveen Russia and
lhe Uniled Slales in lhe spheie of slialegic offensive
and defensive ains. Hovevei, in iecenl yeais, lhe
U.S. Adninislialion chose a couise lovaids upselling
lhal paiily and gaining a uniIaleiaI advanlage in lhe
slialegic donain. LssenliaIIy ils nol jusl aloul gIolaI
nissiIe defense. We aIso nole lhal lhe U.S. has leen
ieIuclanl lo slay vilhin lhe liealies on slialegic offen3
sive ains, and lhal il is puisuing lhe Iionpl CIolaI
Sliike concepl, and deveIoping piojecls lo depIoy
sliike veapons in oulei space. This, undeislandalIy,
viII nol ieinfoice lhe secuiily of Luiope oi of IoIand
ilseIf.
64

Laviov lhen venl on lo say lhal, undei lhe ciicun3
slances, if IoIand chose a speciaI aIIied ieIalionship
vilh Washinglon, lhen il vouId have lo leai lhe ie3
sponsiliIilies and iisks invoIved, and lhal Moscov, in
piincipIe, opposed having ils ieIalions vilh lhiid pai3
lies leing a funclion of Russian-Aneiican dispules.
65
Thus Russias ains conlioI posluie aIso iepiesenls
ils conlinuing denand foi sulslanlive, if nol quanlila3
live, paiily, as veII as foi deleiience vilh lhe Uniled
Slales in oidei lo pievenl Washinglon fion lieaking
fiee of lhe Russian enliace and foIIoving poIicies
lhal Russia deens anlilhelicaI lo ils seIf inleiesls.
66

Moieovei, lhal paiily is caIcuIaled nol jusl gIolaIIy,
lul in iegionaI laIances as veII, so lhal Russia aIso
denands a quaIilalive oi sulslanlive paiily vilh
Aneiica al vaiious iegionaI IeveIs, nosl pioninenlIy
Luiope. Russias denand foi iesloiing paiily al lolh
314
lhe gIolaI and iegionaI IeveIs enlaiIs nol an unieach3
alIe nuneiicaI paiily, lul ialhei a slialegic slaliI3
ily oi equiIiliiun vheie lolh sides ienain nuluaIIy
hoslage lo each olhei in a deleiienl ieIalionship and
vheie lhe Uniled Slales cannol lieak fiee lo puisue
ils gIolaI oi iegionaI inleiesls uniIaleiaIIy.
SeveiaI piaclicaI slialegic consequences ov fion
lhis posluie. Iiisl, undei aII ciicunslances, Russia
nusl ielain lhe capaliIily lo inlinidale Luiope vilh
nucIeai veapons and hoId il hoslage lo lhal lhieal.
Theiefoie, lhe eIile unaninousIy leIieves oi piofesses
lo leIieve lhal any U.S. nissiIe defense is a lhieal, le3
cause il piesages a nelvoik coveiing Luiope lhal viII
negale Russias aliIily lo lhiealen Luiope and counlei
ils hisl-sliike capaliIily, even lhough Laviov adnil3
led lhal lhe piesenl slage of nissiIe defense deveIop3
nenls do nol lhiealen Russia.
67
!"&( &( *0+.&7260+65 .+2#
as lhe Olana adninislialions pIans envisage exlend3
ing lhe adapled phased consliuclion of nissiIe de3
fenses lhioughoul Luiope unliI 2O2O.
68
!"# 2-0-&8&.5
of lhe Russian eIile puls lhe nev liealy inlo jeopaidy
even lefoie il is ialihed, lecause Russian slalenenls
aloul nissiIe defenses nean lhal if Russia shouId de3
cide lhal U.S. nissiIe defense piogians exceed Rus3
sias dehnilion of slialegic slaliIily vilhin lhe liealys
Iinils, and lheiefoie lhiealen Russias slialegic delei3
ience foices, lhen Russia can vilhdiav uniIaleiaIIy
fion lhe liealy.
69
Thus key nenleis of lhe Duna, Iike
Speakei oiis CiyzIov, lhiealened lo lIock ialihcalion
if lhis IegaIIy linding Iinkage is onilled.
7O

Russian denands aIso ieIale lo lhe facl lhal ac3
coiding lo foinei Secielaiy of Slale Ceoige ShuIlz
and foinei Secielaiy of Defense WiIIian Ieiiy, lhe
Russians lhal lhey have laIked vilh sliII leIieve lheii
counliy is enciicIed (lheii void) ly hosliIe oi polen3
315
liaIIy hosliIe foices in lolh lhe easl and vesl. Theie3
1/+#9 ."#5 0+# %#+5 6/0." ./ 0-5 12+."#+ +#,27.&/- /1
nucIeai nissiIes. Indeed, nany of lhen sliII expiess
lhe idea of iepeaIing lhe Inleinediale Range NucIeai
Ioices (INI) Tiealy and luiIding INIs and inleine3
diale iange laIIislic nissiIes (IRMs) lo counlei lhis
lhieal.
71
As if on cue, Laviov innedialeIy afleivaids
7066#, 1/+9 0( "0%# *+#%&/2( (2**/+.#+( /1 +#*#06 /1 ."#
INI liealy, a univeisaI liealy lanning inleinediale
and shoil-iange nissiIes, a piopaganda poinl if lheie
evei vas one, lul one ained aIso al China, nol jusl lhe
Wesl.
72
ConsequenlIy, Russian denands foi nucIeai veap3
ons aIso ieIale lo lhe facl lhal Moscov cannol conceive
of defending ilseIf againsl lhe lhieals il peiceives,
nainIy fion NATO, lul aIso fion China, vilhoul
conlinuing lo luiId, ienev, and nodeinize nucIeai
veapons. Ils capacily foi doing so is visilIy open lo
delale, a facl lhal cieales nany diIennas foi Russias
slialegic Ieadeiship. CeilainIy ils conlinuing piogian
lo luiId nev nucIeai nissiIes and usalIe nucIeai
veapons Iike Iov-yieId and fusion veapons and lhe
RS-24 (Yais) nissiIe shovs vhal il lhinks of Iiesidenl
Olanas quesl foi a gIolaI zeio foi nucIeai veapons,
as does lhe nev docliines expeclalion lhal lheie viII
le noie nucIeai poveis ly 2O2O.
73
!"#+#1/+#9 &. +#3
gaids any U.S. nissiIe defense, vhelhei in Luiope oi
Asia, as leing a conslanl lhieal lo ils slialegic slaliIily
and vilaI inleiesls.
Second, Russias niIilaiy is cIeaiIy unviIIing lo
accepl lhe nolion of lhal lheie is no Iinkage lelveen
offensive and defensive veapons. Il cIains lhal lhe
Uniled Slales ieshaped ils nissiIe defense posluie
in Luiope in Seplenlei 2OO9, lecause, accoiding lo
oui cIeai assessnenl, lhis aiea vouId dehnileIy cie3
316
ale iisks foi Russia.
74
ul since lhen, lhis Russian de3
nand lo cuilaiI even lhe nev adaplive phased Olana
piogian foi nissiIe defenses lecane lhe piincipaI
olslacIe lo lhe successfuI concIusion of lhe liealy.
75
Il
has aIso lecone a nallei of pulIic conlioveisy vilhin
Russian poIilics. Iulins afoienenlioned ienaiks
fion Decenlei 2OO9 undeiscoie lhal poinl.
76
Iulins
denands ieIale lolh lo lhe doneslic povei sliuggIe
in Russia and lhe Russian havks denand lhal lhey
le fiee lo luiId nucIeai veapons vilhoul consliainl.
Thus il appeaied lhal Russias havks veie viIIing lo
olsliucl lhe liealy lo gain lolaI fieedon of aclion lo
luiId offensive veapons againsl a nonexislenl lhieal.
77

Iulin, Defense Minislei Seidyukov, and lhe CeneiaI
Slaff aII aigued foi sIoving dovn negolialions lo in3
sisl on Iinking offenses lo defenses and lo nainlain
lhe piinacy of Iulins Iine on lhese issues ovei Med3
vedevs appaienlIy Iess confionlalionaI appioach.
They did so iegaidIess of lhe facl lhal doing so pIaced
chances foi U.S. Senale ialihcalion al giealei iisk.
78

Indeed, duiing lhe hnaI slage of negolialions, Rus3
(&0 ,#80-,#, ."0. ."# .+#0.5 &-762,# 0 4/&-. (.0.#8#-.
signed ly lolh sides slaling Russia had lhe iighl lo
leininale lhe liealy shouId il deen U.S. nissiIe de3
fense piogians lo le dangeious.
79
!"&(9 .//9 '/26,
have dooned lhe liealy in lhe U.S. Senale. Russia has
aIso slaled in lhe liealy-ieIaled docunenls ils iighl lo
uniIaleiaIIy vilhdiav fion lhe nev agieenenl if il
leIieves U.S. nissiIe defense depIoynenls upsel slia3
legic slaliIily.
8O
Lven lhough lhis is in no vay IegaIIy
linding, in iepIy lo lhis ieveIalion:
In a nol-yel-ieIeased Iellei ollained excIusiveIy ly Tnc
Cao|c, Aiizona Sens. }on KyI and }ohn McCain, and
Conneclicul Sen. }oseph Lieleinan, vain NalionaI
317
Secuiily Advisoi }anes L. }ones, Lven as a uniIaleiaI
decIaialion, a piovision Iike lhis vouId pul piessuie
on lhe Uniled Slales lo Iinil ils syslens oi lheii de3
pIoynenl lecause of Russian lhieals of vilhdiavaI
fion lhe liealy.
81
Theiefoie even a uniIaleiaI Russian slalenenl of
expiessing lhese vievs couId lecone giounds foi
incieased SenaloiiaI opposilion lo lhe liealy, if nol
a faiIuie lo ialify, as incieasingIy seens possilIe.
ShouId lhe liealy faiI lo le ialihed, lhal vouId onIy
fuilhei juslify lhe aigunenls nade ly Russian havks.
Since lhe U.S. Coveinnenl has jusl slaled lhal il viII
conpIele lhe consliuclion of a pan-Luiopean nissiIe
defense ly 2O18, Russia couId easiIy execule ils lhieal
lo vilhdiav fion lhe liealy on lhose giounds.
82
NeveilheIess, despile lhe iisks lo lhe iesel poIicy,
lhe Russian niIilaiy ienains unappeased on lhis is3
sue. Russian Chief of Slaff CeneiaI NikoIai Makaiov
vained lhal:
The facloi of paiily shouId le acconpanied ly lhe
facloi of slaliIily, if lhe U.S. nissiIe defense legins lo
evoIve, il viII le ained piinaiiIy al deslioying oui
nucIeai nissiIe capaliIilies. And lhen lhe laIance of
foice viII le lipped in favoi of lhe Uniled Slales. . . .
Wilh lhe exisling and nainlained paiily of slialegic
offensive neans, lhe gIolaI nissiIe defense leing cie3
aled ly lhe U.S. viII le alIe lo have sone inpacl on
lhe deleiience capaliIilies of lhe Russian slialegic
nucIeai foice aIieady in lhe nediun lein. . . . This
nay upsel lhe slialegic laIance of foice and Iovei lhe
lhieshoId foi lhe use of nucIeai veapons. AIlhough
8&((&6# ,#1#-(# &( 0 ,#1#-(&%# (5(.#89 &.( ,#%#6/*8#-.
viII lasicaIIy loosl |lhej ains iace.
83
318
Neilhei is lhis jusl iheloiic. As one iecenl assess3
nenl of lhe olslacIes encounleied duiing lhe nego3
lialions chaiged, Washinglon loId Moscov lhal if il
,&, -/. 8/%# 1/+'0+, /- ."# .+#0.59 ."# 0,8&-&(.+03
lion nighl lake Russia off ils piioiily Iisl and nove lhe
issue fion lhe Iiesidenl lo sone Iovei IeveI ofhciaI.
?"#."#+ /+ -/. ."&( 7/-%#+(0.&/- /772++#,9 &. '0( ,#3
sciiled as an uIlinalun. This ailicIe aIso poinls oul
lhal cuiienl Russian nucIeai piogians ain lo ovei3
cone oi even neuliaIize U.S. nissiIe defenses.
84
The inpiession is lhal lhe KienIin no Iongei le3
Iieves in Aneiicas niIilaiy onnipolence. Russia ie3
sponded lo lhe uIlinalun vilh a naiden ighl of ils
Ialesl T-5O hghlei and lhe ieainanenl of ils anliaii3
ciafl defense syslen vilh T-4OO Tiiunph conpIexes
(lhis nay le iefeiiing lo vhal ve caII lhe S-4OO SAM).
!/ 066 0**#0+0-7#(9 !+&28*"( 0+# 0-.&3(0.#66&.# 8&(3
siIes (ASAT) lhal aie aIso capalIe of inleicepling and
deslioying inlound laIIislic vaiheads. Conlinualion
of uIava nissiIe lesls vas announced as veII. Woik
on lhe nissiIe viII le lioughl lo ils IogicaI end, soonei
oi Ialei. SpeciaIisls aie even voiking on a concepl of
lhe fuluie slialegic lonleis lhal viII iepIace TU-95s
and Tu-16Os one day.
85
When il had lo lack off fion lhis poinl due lo
Iiesidenl Olanas sleadfaslness in iegaid lo nissiIe
defenses, Moscov lhen denanded lhal lhe Uniled
Slales pIedge lo nol do anylhing uniIaleiaIIy, evaIu3
ale lhieals joinlIy vilh Russia lased on coiiespond3
ing iepoils fion expeils of lolh counliies vilhin lhe
fianevoik of lhe joinl lhieals evaIualion nechanisn,
and nake decisions conceining lhe depIoynenl of
lhealei and evenluaIIy gIolaI nissiIe defenses againsl
ICMs excIusiveIy on lhal lasis. Moscov aIso vanls
Washinglon lo conhin lhal il viII discuss nissiIe de3
319
fenses once lhis liealy is ialihed.
86
Theiefoie, Russia
sliII seeks a velo on U.S. foice decisions. When seen
in lhe conlexl of Russian poIilics and oveiaII defense
poIicy, lhis is a nosl insliuclive episode.
Thiid, since Moscov iigoiousIy adheies lo lhis
nuluaI hoslage concepl, il cannol liusl lhe Uniled
Slales, and any U.S. uniIaleiaI advance in defenses
nusl le conpensaled ly giealei Russian offensive
capaliIilies. The foIIoving cilalions denonsliale lhis
deep-iooled leIief in lhe nuluaI hoslage ieIalionship,
,#.#++#-7# /1 ."# #-#859 0-, ."# 07.&/-3+#07.&/- *+/3
cess iegaiding ainanenls anong lhe Russian poIili3
caI and niIilaiy Ieadeiship. Iiisl,

Laviov loId an inlei3
vievei in Ieliuaiy 2OO7 lhal:
Oui nain ciileiion is ensuiing lhe Russian Iedeia3
lions secuiily and nainlaining slialegic slaliIily as
nuch as possilIe. We have slailed such consuIlalions
|on slialegic nucIeai veaponsj aIieady. I an convinced
lhal ve need a sulslanlive discussion on hov lhose
IelhaI veapons couId le cuiled on lhe lasis of nuluaI
liusl and laIance of foices and inleiesls. We viII insisl
pailicuIaiIy on lhis appioach. We do nol need jusl lhe
laIk lhal ve aie no Iongei enenies and lheiefoie ve
shouId nol have iesliiclions foi each olhei. This is nol
lhe iighl appioach. Il is fiaughl vilh an ains iace, in
facl, lecause, il is veiy unIikeIy lhal eilhei of us viII le
ieady lo Iag lehind a Iol.
87
Heie Laviov signaIed Russias unviIIingness lo
6#0%# 0 82.20665 0,%#+(0+&06 +#60.&/-("&* '&." >8#+3
&70 0-, &.( *+#(2**/(&.&/- /1 82.206 "/(.&6&.5 0( +#3
ecled in lolh sides nucIeai depIoynenls. SiniIaiIy,
AIexei Ailalov iidicuIed lhe ush Adninislialions
viev, slaled ly Anlassadoi Linlon iooks, lhal le3
cause lhe lvo sides aie no Iongei adveisaiies, delaiIed
ains conlioI laIks aie no Iongei necessaiy, as eilhei
naivele oi ouliighl hypociisy.
88
32O
Since lhen Depuly Ioieign Minislei Seigei Ryal3
kov iecenlIy slaled lhal:
Issues of slialegic offensive and defensive ains aie
inexliicalIy Iinked. To deny lhis ieIalionship is nean3
ingIess lecause il is lhe essence of ieIalions lelveen
."# 7/2-.+&#( ."0. "0%# ."# 0**+/*+&0.# */.#-.&06 &-
lolh aieas. An augnenled capacily of one of lhe pai3
.&#( &- ."# +#068 /1 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# &( 02./80.&70665
#7"/#, &- ."# 1/+8 /1 *60-( 0-, ,#7&(&/-( /1 ."# /."#+
paily in lhe ieaIn of slialegic offensive ains. And
nol even olIiqueIy, lul in lhe nosl diiecl vay vhal is
happening in lhe heId of nissiIe defense and U.S. ieIa3
lions vilh ils Lasl Luiopean aIIies on lhis lopic has an
inpacl on oui START foIIov-on negolialions. Wilhoul
iecognilion of lhe ieIalionship lelveen slialegic and
offensive defensive ains, lheie can le no such liealy,
il cannol lake pIace.
89
Likevise, Depuly Iiine Minislei Seigei Ivanov
loId lhe Munich Secuiily confeience in Ieliuaiy 2O1O:
Il is inpossilIe lo speak of ieducing nucIeai polenliaIs
&- #0+-#(. '"&6# 0 (.0.# ."0. */((#((#( -276#0+ '#0*3
ons is deveIoping and depIoying syslens of defense
againsl neans of deIiveiy of nucIeai vaiheads lhal
olhei slales possess. Il is Iike lhe svoid and shieId
lheoiy, vheie lolh aie conlinuousIy deveIoping vilh
lhe chaiacleiislics and iesouices of each of lhen leing
kepl in nind.
9O
Iulins afoienenlioned ienaiks hl iighl inlo lhis
oulIook.
The piolIen is lhal oui Aneiican pailneis aie de3
veIoping nissiIe defenses, and ve aie nol . . . ul lhe
&((2#( /1 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# 0-, /11#-(&%# '#0*/-( 0+#
cIoseIy inleiconnecled. . . . Theie couId le a dangei
321
lhal having ciealed an unlieIIa againsl offensive
sliike syslens, oui pailneis nay cone lo feeI con3
pIeleIy safe. Aflei lhe laIance is lioken, lhey viII do
vhalevei lhey vanl and giov noie aggiessive.
91
Iouilh, given lhese condilions, lhe dangei (as
Iisled in lhe nev defense docliine) of NATO enIaige3
nenl, and lhe lhieal of nissiIe defenses coning cIosei
lo Russia, Moscov leIieves lhal il is leing pIaced un3
dei nounling niIilaiy-poIilicaI piessuie, oi al Ieasl
piofesses lo le so, even lhough il undoulledIy knovs
lhal NATO is haidIy an offensive lhieal and lhal lhe
U.S. nissiIe defenses cannol lhiealen ils syslens.
92

Theiefoie, il has leen ieady foi al Ieasl a decade vilh
ils lhieal of sliiking hisl vilh nucIeai veapons, even
againsl convenlionaI sliikes, if lhe lhieal lo ils in3
leiesls is diie enough. Thus in 1999 CoIoneI CeneiaI
VIadinii YakovIev, connandei in chief of Russias
nucIeai foices, slaled lhal: Russia, foi oljeclive iea3
sons, is foiced lo Iovei lhe lhieshoId foi using nucIeai
'#0*/-(9 #).#-, ."# -276#0+ ,#.#++#-. ./ (8066#+3(706#
conicls and openIy vain polenliaI opponenls aloul
lhis.
93
Since lhen, lheie has leen no nenlion of any
fuilhei aIleialion of lhis lhieshoId.
ConsequenlIy Russia sees nucIeai veapons as
vaihghling veapons, and lolh docliinaI slalenenls
and exeicises conhin lhis. This piocess of convenlion3
aIizing nucIeai veapons, in and of ilseIf, sulslanliaIIy
Ioveis lhe lhieshoId foi nucIeai use jusl as Moscov
did in 1999. Since lhen, olheis have anpIihed upon
lhis poinl. Ioi exanpIe, SoIovlsov slaled lhal nev
niIilaiy uses foi nucIeai veapons aie coning inlo le3
ing. Thus:
322
The iadicaI changes lhal have occuiied since lhe end
of lhe CoId Wai in inleinalionaI ieIalions and lhe con3
sideialIe ieduclion of lhe lhieal lhal a Iaige-scaIe vai,
even noie so a nucIeai one, couId le unIeashed, have
conliiluled lo lhe facl lhal in lhe syslen of vievs on
lhe ioIe of nucIeai ains lolh in Russia and lhe U.S.,
a poIilicaI ialhei lhan niIilaiy funclion has legun lo
pievaiI. In ieIalion lo lhis, lesides lhe liadilionaI foins
and nelhods in lhe conlal use of lhe RVSN |Slialegic
Rockel Ioicesj, a nev nolion speciaI aclions ly lhe
gioupings of slialegic offensive ains has eneiged~
Such aclions nean lhe RVSNs conlainnenl aclions,
lheii ain lo pievenl lhe escaIalion of a high-inlensily
non-nucIeai niIilaiy conicl againsl lhe Russian Ied3
eialion and ils aIIies.
94
In olhei voids, lhough lheie is no lhieal oi a di3
ninishing lhieal of Iaige-scaIe vai, a nev nission foi
nucIeai veapons viII le foi lheii use in aclions dui3
ing such a vai lo conlioI inlia-vai escaIalion. Il is nol
suipiising lhal SoIovlsov aigued foi incieasing lhe
foices undei his connand, lul il aIso is lhe case lhal
such diaIeclicaI ieasoning nakes no sense unIess one
*/(.260.#( 0- a pricri hosliIily lelveen Lasl and Wesl
and gianls Russia lhe iighl of deleiience lhal il has
uniIaleiaIIy aiiogaled lo ilseIf ovei olhei slales vho
have nevei pulIicIy accepled il. Indeed, lhe nev caIIs
foi ienovaling lhe nucIeai foices and having a soIu3
lion guaianleeing nucIeai deleiience in aII cases has
nov lecone poIicy even if Aneiica depIoys ils gIolaI
,#1#-(# (5(.#8 0-, 8/%#( ./ 0 ,#1#-(# ,/8&-0-.
voiId.
95
Makaiovs afoienenlioned slalenenl conceining
ielenlion of TNW couId lake pIace in polenliaI Luio3
pean conlingencies, i.e., in lhe aIlic oi in a vai vilh
China.
96
In Voslok-2O1O, lhe exeicise concIuded vilh a
sinuIaled TNW sliike againsl lhe IeopIes Lileialion
323
Ainy (ILA).
97
SiniIaiIy, pioof of lhe inlended use of
nucIeai veapons in Luiope appeaied in lhe Russian
conlined ains exeicises enlilIed Ladoga and Zapad
2OO9, vhich veie divided in lvo lo avoid CIL liealy
noniloiing and vhich pioninenlIy fealuied nucIeai
sliikes againsl a so-caIIed IoIish-Lilhuanian offensive
againsl eIaius vhich vas defended ly lolh nalive
and Russian foices. Civen lhe nanifeslalions heie of
an oId fashioned Soviel lank offensive lul using nev3
ei ains, lhe piesence of nucIeai sliikes, and lhe nev
connand, conlioI, connunicalions, and inleIIigence
(C3I) oiganizalions deveIoped ly Russia vilh ils ie3
foins since 2OO6 (and piesunalIy infoinalion vai3
faie opeialions), il is haidIy suipiising lhal aIlic Iil3
loiaI slales feeI lhiealened and denand noie secuiily.
eyond lhal, Russia is luiIding nev nucIeai nis3
siIes vhose nain alliilule is lheii aliIily lo evade U.S.
nissiIe defenses and as pail of lhe nev piioiilizalion
of ils nucIeai foices viII depIoy ovei 7O slialegic nis3
siIes, ovei 3O shoil-iange Iskandei nissiIes, and a
Iaige nunlei of looslei iockels and aiiciafl.
98
Moscov
viII aIso spend $35.3 liIIion on seiiaI pioduclion of
aII veapons in 2OO9-11 (1 liiIIion iulIes) and viiluaIIy
doulIed lhe nunlei of slialegic nissiIe Iaunches lo
13 in 2OO9.
99
This piocuienenl poIicy iepiesenls lolh
a quanlun Ieap in Russian capaliIilies if il can le ac3
conpIished. ul noie inpoilanlIy, il aIso vouId con3
(.&.2.# 0 804/+ (.#* &- 0 -#' 07.&/-3+#07.&/- 7576# /1
piocuienenls lased on lhe oId CoId Wai paiadign.
Indeed, lhese dynanics couId Iead lo a nev ains iace,
especiaIIy if Russia insisls lhal any nev liealy shouId
hisl eIininale lhe nissiIe defenses in Laslein Luiope
as a condilion of ils acceplance and consunnalion.
The ienaiks ly Ialiushev in Oclolei 2OO9 lhal
liiggeied lhe delale aie fuIIy consonanl vilh lhe niIi3
324
laiys vievpoinl. Ialiushev loId an inleivievei lhal
lhe foilhconing defense docliine viII le anended lo
aIIov foi lhe possiliIily of pievenlive and pieenp3
live hisl sliikes, incIuding nucIeai sliikes, even in lhe
7/-.#). /1 0 *2+#65 7/-%#-.&/-06 6/706 '0+ 0-, #%#-
0. ."# 6/'#+ 6#%#6 /1 /*#+0.&/-063.07.&7069 0( /**/(#,
lo slialegic, sliikes.
1OO
Soon afleivaid Lieulenanl Cen3
eiaI Andiey Shvaichenko, Connandei in Chief of
Russias Slialegic Rockel Ioices (SRI)/(RVSN), slaled
on Decenlei 16, 2OO9, lhal:
In a convenlionaI vai, lhe RVSN and lhe slialegic
-276#0+ 1/+7#( #-(2+# ."0. ."# /**/-#-. &( 1/+7#, ./
cease hosliIilies on advanlageous condilions foi Rus3
sia ly neans of nuIlipIe pievenlive sliikes againsl
lhe aggiessois nosl inpoilanl faciIilies. . . . RegionaI
inslaliIily in innediale pioxinily lo lhe loideis of
Russia and lhe CIS counliies does nol nake il possilIe
lo conpIeleIy iuIe oul lhe iisk lhal oui counliy nay le
puIIed inlo niIilaiy conicls of vaiious inlensily and
scaIe.
1O1
Heie Shvaichenko venl leyond lhe pievious Iine
lhal nucIeai veapons nay le used lo defend Russias
vilaI inleiesls in a hisl-sliike node if lhe vilaI inlei3
esls of lhe counliy aie al iisk oi deened lo le al iisk
as slaled in lhe 2OOO niIilaiy docliine.
1O2
!"0. */(.2+#
liansIaled inlo a peaceline slialegy of using Russias
nucIeai foices as a deleiienl againsl any aggiession
Iaunched againsl eilhei Russia oi ils CIS neighlois oi
againsl Russia if il nade vai upon lhose slales as in
Ceoigias case in 2OO8.
1O3
In olhei voids, lhe nucIeai
vainings slialegic poIilicaI puipose is lo denaicale
a lhealei of lolh niIilaiy and peaceline opeialions
vheiein Russia vouId have ieIalive if nol fuII fiee3
don of aclion lo opeiale as il sav hl, fiee fion foieign
325
inleifeience. In poIilicaI leins, il nol onIy iepiesenls a
no go sign foi polenliaI enenies, il aIso is an allenpl
lo inlinidale NATO aIIies ly naking lhen laigels of
Russian nucIeai sliikes if lhey liy lo invoke AilicIe V
of lhe Washinglon Tiealy shouId Russia nove on lhe
aIlic Slales oi undeilake siniIai kinds of allacks.
In lhose ienaiks, ve see a hidden oi al Ieasl an
unnoliced nission foi Russias nucIeai veapons. They
seive lo denaicale ils spheie of inuence ly selling
up a no go zone foi foieign niIilaiy enlilies, lecause
lhe Russian eIile aInosl unaninousIy leIieves lhal
vilhoul such veapons, lhe vhoIe of lhe CIS vouId le
open lo NATO inleivenlion in a ciisis. Thus, if Russia
is lo have a spheie of inuence in lhe iegion, il nusl
exlend ils deleiience unlieIIa lhioughoul lhal spheie
lo nake ils cIain ciedilIe and vilh lhal ils cIain lo
gieal oi even supeipovei slalus.
Neilhei is Russias piofessed ieadiness lo use nu3
cIeai veapons conhned lo Iand-lased syslens. Vice-
AdniiaI OIeg uilsev, lhe Navys Depuly Chief of
Slaff, loId R|A Nctcs|i lhal: IiolalIy, laclicaI nucIeai
veapons viII pIay a key ioIe in lhe fuluie, and lhal
lhe Navy nay hl nev, Iess poveifuI nucIeai vai3
heads lo lhe exisling lypes of ciuise nissiIes. Theie
is no Iongei any need lo equip nissiIes vilh poveifuI
nucIeai vaiheads, uilsev said. We can inslaII Iov-
yieId vaiheads |possilIy fusion veapons`j on exisl3
ing ciuise nissiIes.
1O4
This is cIeaiIy sonelhing lhal
cieales an unacceplalIe lhieal lo Luiopean secuiily.
1O5

CeilainIy, ve cannol assune lhis lo le neie iheloiic,
foi as iIdl has loId us, Russia has aIieady depIoyed
TNW on ils aIlic IIeel ships.
1O6
In appaienl conhina3
lion of iIdls ienaiks, lhe foIIoving episode fion
2OO6 is infoinalive.
326
In iesponding lo a queslion fion Iulin on lhe nunlei
of nucIeai sulnaiines cuiienlIy depIoyed voiIdvide,
Ivanov slaled: 'Al lhis nonenl. . .ve have eighl nu3
cIeai sulnaiines depIoyed. Of lhen, hve aie slialegic
sulnaiines and lhiee aie nuIlipuipose sulnaiines,
lul aII of lhen aie depIoyed vilh nucIeai veapons.
The ships have diffeienl nissions - inleiconlinenlaI,
lhal is, and nuIlipuipose, lul on loaid of each of lhen
aie nucIeai veapons. Since geneiaI puipose (allack)
sulnaiines do nol caiiy SLMs, Ivanovs connenls
0**#0+#, ./ &-,&70.# ."0. ."#(# %#((#6(9 '"&7" *+&/+ ./
lhe IiesidenliaI NucIeai Inilialives had caiiied lacli3
7069 -276#0+30+8#, 7+2&(# 8&((&6#( 0-, -276#0+30+8#,
loipedoes, veie again caiiying veapons in eilhei oi
lolh of lhese calegoiies.
1O7
!"# '/+(. 0(*#7. /1 ."#(# ,#*6/58#-.( 0-, *60-(
as slaled heie is lhal lhey poinl lo lhe CeneiaI Slaffs
and lhe goveinnenls slialegy as leing one of sup3
posedIy Iiniled nucIeai vai. Key ofhciaIs conhined
lhis inleipielalion, conceding lhal Iiniled nucIeai vai
is Russias ofhciaIIy acknovIedged slialegy againsl
nany diffeienl kinds of conlingencies.
1O8
IIya Kediov,
in his discussion of ainoied vehicIes alove, aIso
shoved lhal he undeislood lhe docliine as afhining
lhis slialegy.
1O9
In Seplenlei 2OO8, al a ioundlalIe on
nucIeai deleiience, CeneiaI SoIovlsov noled lhal Rus3
sia vas giving expIicil consideialion lo lhe concepl of
speciaI aclions oi deleiiing aclions of lhe RVSN
0&8#, 0. ."# *+#%#-.&/- /1 #(7060.&/- /1 0 -/-3-276#0+
niIilaiy conicl of high inlensily againsl Russia. So3
Iovlsov fuilhei slaled lhal:
These aclions nay le laken vilh a viev lo convinc3
ingIy denonslialing lo lhe aggiessoi |lhej high con3
lal polenliaI of Russian nucIeai nissiIe veapons, |lhej
,#.#+8&-0.&/- /1 ."# 8&6&.0+53*/6&.&706 6#0,#+("&* /1
327
Russia lo appIy lhen in oidei lo nake lhe aggiessoi
slop conlal aclions. . . . In viev of ils unique piopei3
lies, lhe sliiking povei of lhe Slialegic MissiIe Ioices
is nosl efhcienl and convincing in lhe de-escaIalion
aclions.
11O
This slialegy aIso openIy ieecls Moscovs lizaiie,
unsellIing, and unpiecedenled leIief lhal Russia can
conlioI escaIalion and nucIeai vai ly inilialing il de3
spile 4O yeais of Soviel aigunenl lhal no such conlioI
vas feasilIe. MeanvhiIe, cuiienl piocuienenls dis3
pIay a ieIiance on nev, noliIe, suivivalIe, and aIIeg3
edIy indefensilIe nucIeai veapons, even as nunleis
faII. Ioi exanpIe, Russia seeks lo keep ils noliIe nis3
siIe syslens of lhe nucIeai foices invisilIe lo foieign
ieconnaissance syslens, vhiIe aIso deveIoping neans
./ (2**+#(( ."/(# +#7/--0&((0-7# 0-, (2+%#&660-7#
syslens.
111
AccoidingIy, as Russian ofhciaIs ieguIaiIy
*+/760&89 -276#0+ *+/72+#8#-.( 0+# &-.#-,#, ./ ,#3
veIop nissiIes againsl vhich Aneiica has no defense,
i.e., noliIe nissiIes, nuIlipIe independenl ieenliy ve3
hicIes (MIRVs), and fusion, Iov-yieId nucIeai veap3
ons lhal can aIso le used on lhe lallIeheId.
Thus, nucIeai veapons aie vaihghling veapons.
Moscovs lhieals fion Oclolei 2OO9 nol onIy foIIov
pievious docliine, lhey expand on il ly openIy adnil3
ling lhal Iiniled nucIeai vai is ils oplion oi ace in lhe
hoIe. If Russia shouId decide lo invade oi seize one oi
noie aIlic Slale, lhen lhal vouId nean il is piepaied
lo vage nucIeai vai againsl NATO and lhe Uniled
Slales lo hoId onlo lhal acquisilion aIlhough il vouId
piefei nol lo, oi lhinks il couId gel avay vilh il vilh3
oul having lo do so. The idea lehind such a Iiniled
nucIeai vai is lhal Russia vouId seize conlioI of
lhe inlia-vai escaIalion piocess ly delonaling a hisl-
328
sliike even in a pievenlive oi pieenplive node, and
lhis vouId supposedIy foice NATO lo negoliale a po3
IilicaI soIulion lhal aIIovs Russia lo hoId onlo al Ieasl
sone of ils gains. Apail fion lhe innensily of Mos3
covs ganlIe lhal NATO viII nol have lhe slonach
lo ielaIiale againsl Russian nucIeai sliikes, vhich viII
le caiiied oul lo inicl a piesel anounl of danage
lhal Moscov leIieves viII signaI ils Iiniled inlenl.
In essence, Moscov is essenliaIIy engaging in a gane
of nucIeai chicken oi lIacknaiI. In facl, lhe ieaI iisk
heie is lhal lhe Wesl viII nol acquiesce lul ialhei lhal
il viII ielaIiale oi even escaIale, fuilhei adding lo lhe
inheienl unpiediclaliIily of any conceivalIe nucIeai
vai scenaiio.
A iecenl ailicIe ly Vipin Naiang anaIyzing Iaki3
slans nucIeai posluie oulIined lhiee diffeiing nucIeai
posluies anong lhe nucIeai poveis, i.e., lheii opeia3
lionaI ialhei lhan lheii iheloiicaI nucIeai docliine. Il
is appaienl lhal posluie and docliine geneiale delei3
ienl povei againsl aII polenliaI enenies and can le
used lo deveIop diffeienl IeveIs of aliIily lo delei
vaiying conlingencies, as veII as lo induce nucIeai
and olhei poIilicaI foins of iesliainl anong adveisai3
ies. Russias nucIeai posluie vhich ains lo delei lolh
convenlionaI and nucIeai lhieals lhiough vaiying Iev3
eIs of lhiealened iesponse oi hisl-sliike use of nucIeai
veapons exenpIihes lhe piocess.
112
Russias decIaied
nucIeai posluie lheiefoie faIIs inlo lhe calegoiy of an
Asynneliic LscaIalion Iosluie. This posluie con3
foins vilh nuneious slalenenls ly Iulin c| a|. lhal
Russias iesponses lo U.S. nissiIe defenses and NATO
enIaigenenl viII le asynneliic in naluie, hence lhe
lhieal of a nucIeai hisl-sliike. This posluie has lhe
foIIoving chaiacleiislics and enlaiIs lhe ieconnenda3
.&/-( ."0. 1/66/' ."# */+.+0506 /1 ."/(# 7"0+07.#+&(.&7(
leIov.
329
The asynneliic escaIalion posluie is geaied foi lhe
iapid and asynneliic hisl use of nucIeai veapons
againsl convenlionaI allacks lo delei lheii oullieak,
opeialionaIizing nucIeai veapons as usalIe vaihghl3
ing insliunenls. A slale vilh lhis posluie nusl lheie3
foie have sufhcienl laclicaI and polenliaIIy suivivalIe
second-sliike slialegic veapons lo alsoil polenliaI
ielaIialion. AIlhough peaceline depIoynenls can le
cenliaIized, lo ciedilIy delei convenlionaI allacks,
an asynneliic escaIalion nusl have lhe aliIily lo
dispeise and depIoy assels exlieneIy quickIy and lo
enalIe lheii ieIease on lhe lallIeheId lhiough pie-deI3
egalive pioceduies lo niIilaiy end-useis in lhe evenl
of a ciisis, |in Russias case, ils noliIe nissiIes lypify
lhis hisl iequiienenl and IillIe oi nolhing is knovn in
lhe uncIassihed Iileialuie as lo vhelhei il has pie-deI3
egaled end-usei ieIeasej il is lhus lhe nosl aggiessive
oplion avaiIalIe lo nucIeai slales. To ciedilIy lhieal3
en hisl use, lhis posluie nusl le IaigeIy lianspaienl
aloul capaliIilies, depIoynenl palleins, and condi3
lions of use. The asynneliic escaIalion posluie nay
have lhe nosl signihcanl deleiienl effecl al aII IeveIs
of conicl inlensily, given lhe coslIy signaI of ciedilIy
lhiealening eaiIy hisl use of nucIeai veapons againsl
even convenlionaI allacks.
113
Il shouId le cIeai lhal in lhis conlexl vhal Moscov
seeks is lo delei as veII as lo defend. OlviousIy, Mos3
cov seeks lo delei a U.S. nucIeai sliike in defense of
ils aIIies. ul leyond lhal olvious concein is lhe facl
lhal foi Moscov, il is of paianounl signihcance lo de3
lei lhe U.S. concepl of gIolaI sliike vhich enlaiIs lolh
convenlionaI and nucIeai sliikes fion Iand, sea, and
aii lased pIalfoins and foi vhich, ly ils ovn adnis3
sion, il has no sufhcienl defense. As lhe Russian niIi3
laiy connenlaloi Ieli eIov iecenlIy olseived, lhe
iesoil lo nucIeai veapons indicales lhal Russia can no
33O
Iongei guaianlee a ielaIialoiy iesponse lo aggiession
oi defend againsl a convenlionaI sliike. Moieovei, he
leIieves lhal a heice sliuggIe lhal couId cuIninale in
a vai can deveIop aiound allenpls lo seize Russias
naluiaI iesouices. (This nolion is aIso enshiined as an
ofhciaI viev in lhe 2OO9 Na|icna| Sccuri|q Ccnccp|).
114

Theiefoie, lo pievenl foieign piecision-guided nuni3
lions fion deslioying Russias C3I nelvoik, lhe oidei
nay le given lo Iaunch lhese veapons eilhei lo pie3
enpl such allacks oi in a pievenlive node.
115
Russias exeicises fuIIy ieecl lhese pIans (and
nol onIy in lhe Wesl).
116
The Zapad 2OO9 and Ladoga
exeicises, lifuicaled in haIf lo avoid foieign inspec3
.&/-(9 '#+# *0+. /1 0 -0.&/-3'&,# (#+&#( /1 #)#+7&(#( &-
Augusl-Oclolei 2OO9 fion lhe Aiclic lo lhe Iack Sea
and cuIninaled in a sinuIaled nucIeai sliike on Io3
Iand, piolalIy foi lhe ieasons given ly eIov alove.
117
The 2OO9 exeicises luiIl upon SlaliInosl 2OO8 and eai3
6&#+ #)#+7&(#( ."0. &-%/6%#, ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-(
in a hisl-sliike node. Duiing lhe peiiod Seplenlei
28-Oclolei 1O, 2OO9, Russias SRI (RVSN), i.e., lheii
-276#0+ 1/+7#(9 7/-,27.#, ,+&66( ./ 602-7" 80((&%#
nucIeai sliikes using lhe TopoI-M and SliIello RS-18
ICMs lo appaienlIy sliike ainy assels.
118
Il is nole3
voilhy lecause lhese exeicises iepiesenled a change
fion lhe 2OO4 exeicises vheie lhe Russians used TNW
in a hisl-sliike node lecause lhey couId nol olhei3
vise slop a convenlionaI offensive. In olhei voids,
nov il is equaIIy as IikeIy lhal lhey viII use ICMs oi
SLMs againsl lhe Uniled Slales oi Luiope foi lhose
puiposes ialhei lhan TNW.
119
Since Russian Ieadeis ac3
knovIedge lhal Iaige-scaIe exeicises aie lolh a shov
of slienglh and a liaining exeicise, lhe signihcance of
."#(# #)#+7&(#( 0-, ."#&+ 7/8*/-#-. /*#+0.&/-(9 0(
veII as ongoing nucIeai vai exeicises, is quile evidenl
lo aII olseiveis.
12O
331
IinaIIy, ve nusl undeisland lhal Russian iheloiic
is nol jusl iheloiic lul acluaI poIicy. Recenl depIoy3
nenls of lhe SS-26 Iskandei nissiIe (lhal cones in
lolh nucIeai and convenlionaI foinals) in lhe Lenin3
giad MiIilaiy Disliicl vheie il couId lhiealen IinIand
and lhe aIlic Slales suggesl nol jusl a desiie lo delei
NATO, lul aIso lhe conlinuing desiie lo inlinidale
Russian neighlois.
121
ShouId Russia divine a lhieal in
Luiope, il ieseives lhe iighl lo pIace lhese nissiIes in
KaIiningiad fion vheie il couId lhiealen IoIand and
even Ceinany as veII.
122
/8R;5? =L8 ?;6=2-58
A+/8 0- /*.&8&(.&7 (.0-,*/&-.9 '# 70- (05 ."0.
Medvedev successfuIIy oveiiode lhe havks and
signed lhe liealy.
123
Moieovei, he ieluffed lolh Iulin
0-, ."# 8&6&.0+5 /- ."# &,#0 /1 0- #)*0-,#, -276#0+
piogian. Thus, al lhe Maich 5, 2O1O, expanded ses3
sion of lhe Defense Minisliy CoIIegiun, Medvedev
nade il cIeai lhal Russia does nol need lo inciease
ils offensive nucIeai capaliIily any fuilhei lhan vas
oiiginaIIy pIanned.
124
CIeaiIy lhis diieclIy conliadicled
Iulins pulIic ienaiks in Decenlei 2OO9, undeiscoi3
ing lhe conlinuing divisions lelveen Iulin and Med3
vedev and vilhin lhe Russian niIilaiy-poIilicaI eIile.
eyond lhose delales, lhe facl of Iulins inleivenlion
on lehaIf of lhe niIilaiy and his allenpl lo use lhen
lo check Medvedev is no Iess sliiking. Iiisl, il iepie3
senls anolhei in a seiies of ongoing effoils lo asseil
lhe supienacy of niIilaiy oiienlalions in Russian na3
.&/-06 (#72+&.5 */6&75 /%#+ 066 /."#+ &8*#+0.&%#(9 '"&6#
sinuIlaneousIy iepiesenling anolhei allenpl lo po3
Iilicize lhe niIilaiy in lhe conlexl of lhe visilIe iivaIiy
lelveen Iulin and Medvedev as veII as lheii iespec3
332
live enlouiages. Such liends aie dangeious in and of
."#8(#6%#( 0-, #%#- 8/+# (/ '"#+# -276#0+ '#0*/-(
and Russias nosl ciuciaI foieign poIicy ieIalionships
aie invoIved.
Second, adninislialion ofhciaIs have slaled lhal
Medvedev loId lhen in piivale vhal Iulin said in
pulIic and lhal lhe lvo veie in veiy cIose poIicy co3
oidinalion and Iockslep.
125
Yel lhe pulIic iecoid, and
nol jusl lhe issue of luiIding noie nucIeai veapons,
cIeaiIy leIies such conlenlions undeiscoiing a vide
iange of disagieenenls lelveen Medvedev and Iulin
on a lioad iange of lolh doneslic and foieign poIicy
issues.
126
WhiIe delales ovei poIicy and lhe sulse3
quenl piessuie on poIicynakeis aie lhe noinaI slale
/1 */6&.&7( #%#+5'"#+#9 ."# ("##+ (7/*# /1 &((2#( &-
vhich such discoidance is nanifesl in Russian poIi3
lics cIeaiIy poinls lo ongoing lensions vilhin Russia.
?"0. ."&( 8#0-( 1/+ ."# .+#0.5 &( ."0. &. ,#*#-,( 1/+
ils suivivaI and enduiance on lhe doneslic laIance
of povei in Russia lecause lhe Russian niIilaiy and
Iulin aie aIieady pulIicIy on iecoid indicaling lhal
lhe U.S. nissiIe defense piogian as il is iepiesenls
exaclIy lhe kind of lhieal lhal Makaiov and so nany
lefoie hin have invoked as juslihcalion foi Ieaving
lhe liealy. Indeed, one couId aigue as veII lhal lhe
RepulIican and conseivalive opposilion in lhe U.S.
iepiesenl an anaIogous case of lhe fiagiIily of lhe iesel
poIicy and lhe Iinils lo il.
Iuilheinoie, lhese facls of Russian doneslic po3
IilicaI Iife conliavene lhal Olana adninislialions
aigunenl lhal Russias slalenenl is essenliaIIy foi
doneslic posluiing and lhal eveiy liealy conlains a
vilhdiavaI cIause (as did lhe Anli-aIIislic MissiIe
(AM) Tiealy vhen lhe Uniled Slales vilhdiev fion
il). Lveiy liealy does conlain a vilhdiavaI cIause, lul
333
lhis Russian slalenenl essenliaIIy iepiesenls a Ioaded
gun heId againsl lhe lenpIe of lhe liealy, given lhe po3
lenliaI foi a ieveisaI of lhe doneslic laIance of foices
in Russia, since lhe niIilaiy has aIieady aigued as did
Iulin lhal nissiIe defenses in and of lhenseIves iep3
iesenl a lhieal lo vilaI Russian inleiesls Iike deleiienl
capaliIily and ils slialegic slaliIily. Indeed, lhe ovei3
aII Russian ieceplion of lhis liealy vas nol enlhusias3
lic, and ils ciilics aIIege lhal jusl as lhe 1991 Slialegic
Ains Reduclion Tiealy (START) vas deliinenlaI lo
Russia, so is lhis liealy. They pailicuIaiIy enphasize
lhe faiIuie lo consliain U.S. nissiIe defenses.
127
Theiefoie lhe docliines slalenenls lhal: The Rus3
sian Iedeialion ieseives lhe iighl lo uliIize nucIeai
veapons in iesponse lo lhe uliIizalion of nucIeai and
olhei lypes of veapons of nass desliuclion againsl
il and (oi) ils aIIies, and aIso in lhe evenl of aggies3
sion againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion invoIving lhe use
/1 7/-%#-.&/-06 '#0*/-( '"#- ."# %#+5 #)&(.#-7# /1
lhe slale is undei lhieal, nay le Iess lhan neels lhe
eye.
128
In facl, lhis iepiesenls onIy lhe pulIic foinuIa3
lion of lhe deepIy conlesled nucIeai use issue. As Ia3
liushev foiecasl, a cIassihed docunenl on nucIeai use
vas signed aIong vilh lhe docliine, lul olviousIy nol
ieIeased foi discussion.
129

=L8 4!-4U:46-@-6 45? 6L-54
UnliI nov ve have focused on Luiope, lul siniIai
diIennas pIague Russian slialegisls vhen lhey Iook
al Asia. Moscov sees Washinglon as liying lo liing ils
niIilaiy foices cIosei lo Russian loideis in lolh Lu3
iope and Asia. So lhis is nol onIy a queslion of NATO
enIaigenenl, lul aIso of lhe enIaigenenl of Aneiicas
Asian-Iacihc aIIiances.
13O
CeilainIy, fion Moscovs
334
(.0-,*/&-. &.( *#+7#*.&/- &( 0 %06&, /-# 0-, &. 805 06(/
have neiil in noie oljeclive anaIyses. Ioi exanpIe,
David McDonoughs anaIysis of U.S. nucIeai depIoy3
nenls in lhe Iacihc Ocean slales lhal:
The incieased depIoynenl of haid-laigel kiII veapons
in lhe Iacihc couId onIy aggiavale Russian conceins
ovei lhe suivivaliIily of ils ovn nucIeai aisenaI. These
siIo-lusleis vouId le ideaI lo deslioy lhe fev hun3
died ICM siIos and Russias infanousIy haidened
7/880-,30-,37/-.+/6 107&6&.&#( 0( '#66 0( "#6* +#,27#
any vaining line foi Russian slialegic foices, given
lheii possilIe depIoynenl and depiessed liajecloiy.
!"&( &( 7+&.&706 1/+ 0 ,#70*&.0.&/- 8&((&/-9 ,2# ./ ."#
highIy cenliaIized connand-and-conlioI sliucluie of
lhe Russian posluie, as veII as lo pie-enpl any possi3
lIe ielaIialion fion lhe nosl on-aIeil Russian slialegic
foices. The Iacihc aIso has a unique fealuie in lhal il
is an aiea vheie gaps in Russian eaiIy-vaining iadai
and lhe conlinued deleiioialion of ils eaiIy-vaining
saleIIile coveiage have nade il effecliveIy lIind lo
any allack fion lhis lhealie. This open-allack coiiidoi
vouId nake any inciease in Iacihc-depIoyed SLMs
appeai especiaIIy lhiealening.
131
SiniIaiIy, aIieady in 2OO3 vhen lhe hisl iepoils of
lhe Ienlagons inleiesl in nev Iov-yieId and lunkei
lusling nucIeai veapons lecane pulIic, Russian ana3
Iysls vained lhal even if such piogians veie neieIy
in a ieseaich slage, lhey vouId add lo lhe hosliIe diifl
of Russo-Aneiican ieIalions.
132
Lvenls since lhen have
onIy conhined lhis assessnenl and lheii vaining.
A second najoi concein is lhe slienglhening of lhe
U.S.-}apan aIIiance in lhe lvin foins of joinl nissiIe
,#1#-(#( 0-, ."# 0**0+#-. 7/-(/6&,0.&/- /1 0 .+&*0+.&.#
aIIiance incIuding AusliaIia and Soulh Koiea, if nol
India. Ioi lolh Russia and China, one of lhe negalive
335
consequences of lhe Denocialic IeopIes RepulIic of
Koieas (DIRK) nucIeai and nissiIe lesls has leen lhe
slienglhened inpelus il gave lo U.S.-}apan coopeia3
lion on nissiIe defense. The issue of nissiIe defense
in Asia had leen in a kind of aleyance, lul lhe Noilh
Koiean nucIeai lesls of 2OO6, nade in dehance of Chi3
nese vainings againsl nucIeaiizalion and lesling, in3
lensihed and acceIeialed lhe }apanese and Aneiican
coIIaloialion on nissiIe defenses as lhe juslihcalion
foi lhen had nov leen inconlioveililIy denonslial3
ed. ul such piogians aIvays enlaiI checking China,
vhich naluiaIIy is consideialIy annoying lo eijing.
133

Theiefoie, China conlinues lo ciilicize U.S.-}apan coI3
Ialoialion on nissiIe defenses pulIicIy.
134
Ieihaps lhis
issue vas on Chinese Iiesidenl Hu }inlaos nind in
Seplenlei 2OO7 vhen he caIIed foi giealei Russo-Chi3
nese coopeialion in Asia-Iacihc secuiily.
135

Russian expeils Iong ago noled lhal lhe niIilaiy
laIance in lhe Asia-Iacihc vas unfavoialIe lo Russia
and specihcaIIy invoked lhe speclei of Russia Iosing
ils nucIeai navaI polenliaI lheie.
136
!"0. -276#0+ -0%06
polenliaI ienains piecaiious as Moscov iecenlIy ad3
nilled lhal ils sulnaiines conducled a lolaI of lhiee
palioIs in 2OO7.
137
In facl, in lhe Iacihc, accoiding lo
}apanese souices, Moscov is depIoying foineiIy ie3
liied ships Iike lhe nucIeai poveied Adnira| |azarct9
0 ,#7/88&((&/-#, Kirct 760(( 7+2&(#+9 ./ 7/2-.#+ ."#
iise in Chinese povei and delei lhieals ianging fion
an oullieak of vai in Koiea lo gioving Chinese na3
vaI and sliike povei aIong vilh U.S. luiIdups.
138
!/
oveicone lhese veaknesses and lhieals, and lhanks lo
Russias econonic iesuigence (IaigeIy eneigy-diiven,
hovevei), lhen Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin and Defense
Minislei Seigei Ivanov announced a pIanned slialegic
upgiade foi lhe Iacihc IIeel, specihcaIIy lo addiess
336
lhis piolIen and nake lhe IIeel Russias piinaiy na3
vaI slialegic conponenl.
139

!"&( */6&75 +#%#+(#, ."# *+&/+ -0%06 */6&75 ."0.
nade Russias Noilhein IIeel lhe slialegic laslion foi
anli-Aneiican scenaiios duiing lhe 199Os, leslifying
./ 0- #-"0-7#, ."+#0. *#+7#*.&/- &- >(&0 ,#(*&.# ."#
iecenl Russian shov of foice in lhe Aiclic and caIIs lo
incoipoiale Aiclic scenaiios inlo lhe liaining and doc3
liine of Russias ained foices.
14O
Heie ve shouId un3
deisland lhal Russias foices, pailicuIaiIy lhose in lhe
Noilh and lhe Iai Lasl, nay le depIoyed on a sving
lasis, vheie eilhei lhe eel oi aii foices in one lhe3
alei noves lo suppoil lhe eel oi aii foices in lhe olh3
ei. Russia has caiiied oul exeicises vheiely one eel
noves lo lhe aid of lhe olhei undei such a concepl.
141

Likevise, Russia has ieheaised scenaiios foi aiiIifling
giound foices fion lhe Noilh lo lhe Iacihc in oidei
lo oveicone lhe lyianny of dislance lhal nakes il
veiy difhcuIl foi Russia lo suslain foices in Noilh3
easl Asia. The ievivaI of ieguIai aii palioIs ovei lhe
oceans have cIeaiIy invoIved lhe Iacihc-lased unils
of lhe Long Range Avialion foices as veII as sone of
lhe aii foices lased in lhe Noilh and Aiclic vho y in
lhe aieas aiound AIaska.
142
Indeed, nucIeai exeicises
noving foices oi laigeling veapons fion lhe Noilh
lo lhe Iacihc oi vice veisa have aIso occuiied.
143
!/ ."#
degiee lhal Aiclic nissions lecone pail of lhe ieguIai
iepeiloiie of lhe Russian ained foices, lhey viII aIso
lo sone degiee spiII ovei inlo lhe Noilh Iacihc.
Indeed, Russias heighlened lhieal peiceplion in
Asia iesenlIes ils peiceplion of Luiopean lhieals.
}usl as in iegaid lo lhe peiceived lhieal of U.S. nissiIe
defenses in Luiope, Iulin pioposed lhal Russia and
Aneiica shaie opeialion of lhe CalaIa and Kiasnodai
iadai and nissiIe defense lases, and ly so doing cie3
337
ale a ieaI slialegic pailneiship lhal vouId ievoIulion3
ize voiId poIilics, so loo in Asia, Moscov vanls lo
pailicipale in shaping slialegic ieIalionships lheie.
144
ul al lhe sane line, Moscov has vained lhal if ils
conceins aie nol heeded, il viII go ils ovn vay. In
Asia lhal neans, al Ieasl in iegaid lo nissiIe defenses,
enhanced coopeialion vilh China. As Depuly Ioieign
Minislei AIeksandi Losyukov said in 2OO7:
We vouId Iike lo see a non-ciicuiled |i.e., non-excIu3
sionaiy, oi non-lIocj syslen. esides, ve nighl nake
oui ovn conliilulion lo il, loo. Then ve vouId have
no ieason lo suspecl lhis syslen is laigeled againsl
us,~If il is liue lhal lhe syslen leing ciealed is ex3
pecled lo vaid off sone lhieals posed ly iiiesponsilIe
iegines, lhen il is nol onIy Luiope, lhe Uniled Slales
oi }apan lhal one shouId have lo keep in nind. When
sone olhei counliies conceins aie kepl oulside such
a syslen, lhey nay have lhe feeIing lhieals againsl
lhen aie gioving, loo. ConsequenlIy, lhe syslens lo
le ciealed nusl acconnodale lhe conceins of olhei
counliies conceined.
145
CIeaiIy lhe olhei counliies lo vhich he iefeis aie
Russia and China. Thus il is nol suipiising lhal Rus3
sia pulIicIy ciilicized lhe U.S.-}apan coIIaloialion on
nissiIe defenses and lhe Iinking of AusliaIia lo lhe
U.S.-}apanese aIIiance aloul vhich il had pieviousIy
leen siIenl. Heie Moscov has adopled Chinas ai3
gunenl, foi ceilainIy lhe U.S. aIIiance syslen is nol
piinaiiIy laigeled on Russia. Such aiguing on lehaIf
of nainIy Chinese inleiesls suggesls lhal, as pail of
lhe Sino-Russian pailneiship, ve aie leginning lo en3
counlei lhe phenonenon lhal nany Russian anaIysls
vained aloul, specihcaIIy lhal Russia ends up foIIov3
ing Chinas Iine. ul lhis nay veII le lecause Russia
peiceives lhal Washinglon viII nol gianl il lhe adnil3
338
ledIy seIf-inaled slalus lhal il cIains foi ilseIf eilhei in
Luiope oi in Asia. InleieslingIy enough, vhiIe China,
accoiding lo nosl anaIysls, had leen seen as desisl3
ing fion chaIIenging lhe U.S. nissiIe defense piogian
ly a vigoious piogian of luiIding nucIeai veapons,
Russia seens ieady lo do so even lhough lhe uliIily of
lhal piogian foi ils oveiaII inleiesls, vhich noinaIIy
focus on gelling lhe Wesl lo incIude il as a najoi inlei3
nalionaI acloi, is decidedIy nool.
146

Russian opposilion lo an Aneiican nissiIe defense
syslen goes lack a decade, and Russia aigued againsl
ils appeaiance in Asia, using eveiy avaiIalIe Asian
secuiily foiun lo voice ils opposilion al lhal line.
147
y 2OO5, il aIso vas leconing appaienl lhal lhe pIace3
nenl of such defenses in lhe Asia-Iacihc as pail of lhe
U.S. aIIiance syslen vas pail of an effoil lo cieale a
lIoc lo isoIale Russia.
148
And nov, as il incieasingIy
appeais Russian hopes lhal a peacefuI iesoIulion of
lhe Noilh Koiean nucIeai piolIen vouId undeinine
Washinglons juslihcalion foi Asian nissiIe defenses
viII le dashed, il nay have decided lo go on lhe of3
fensive in Asia jusl as il has in Luiope.
149
WhiIe Weslein and U.S. schoIais and poIicy, seen
fion Moscovs poinl of viev, lend lo naiginaIize
Russia as an acloi in Asia, Russia nade up ils nind
lo ieacl.
15O
Russia peiceives U.S. nucIeai poIicy as pail
of an oveiaiching slialegy lo isoIale and lhiealen il,
and lheiefoie is iesponding accoidingIy, asynnelii3
caIIy as pionised. Thus ils iesponse incIudes: pailnei3
ship, if nol aIIiance, vilh China, piessuie on }apan lo
desisl fion laigeling Russia vilh ils nissiIe defenses,
coupIed vilh aIleinaling offeis of econonic incenlives
foi pailneiship in lhe iegion, and lhe nucIeaiizalion
of lhe Iacihc IIeel lo ensuie iolusl deleiience and a
second-sliike capaliIily.
339
Neilhei aie Russian niIilaiy anaIysls oi pIanneis
unavaie of lhe possiliIily of Chinese niIilaiy lhieals,
even lhough lhey do nol fiequenlIy discuss lhen.
These lhieals aie usuaIIy delaled ly peopIe vho aie
ciilicaI of lhe pailneiship vilh China oi vho piofess
lo leIieve, as is appaienlIy nov lhe case, lhal lhey
have al Ieasl 1O yeais lefoie China can le a ieaI lhieal
and lhal China is cuiienlIy nol a ieaI lhieal lo Rus3
sia.
151
Lven so, al Ieasl sone viileis have poinled oul
lhal lhe iise in Chinas capaliIilies couId go leyond
a convenlionaI lhieal lo Russian assels in Sileiia and
Russian Asia.
Ioi exanpIe, Chinas no hisl use of nucIeai
veapons injunclion in Chinese niIilaiy docliine is
coning undei piessuie fion youngei ofhceis lheie.
152

Thus China is nov delaling ielenlion of ils no hisl
use posluie iegaiding nucIeai veapons, and such
veapons appeai lo le pIaying a noie pioninenl ioIe
in Chinese slialegy lhan vas hilheilo leIieved lo le
lhe case. China is luiIding a pieviousIy undiscIosed
nucIeai sulnaiine lase in lhe Iacihc and a najoi
nucIeai lase in ils inleiioi, noves lhal suggesl con3
sideialion of a second sliike capaliIily, lul lhal can
aIso pul nuch piessuie on Russias Iacihc IIeel and
Russian Asia.
153
Indeed, Chinas nev DH-1O ciuise
nissiIe iepiesenls a signihcanl advance in Chinas
ovn TNW capaliIily, as does lhe opeialionaIizalion
of seveiaI ciuise nissiIe liigades. Lven if Taivan is
lhe focus of Chinese niIilaiy pIanning, lhal pIanning
sliII idenlihes Russia and lhe Uniled Slales (as veII as
India) as polenliaI enenies, lheiely envisaging pos3
silIe nucIeai scenaiios againsl lhen.
154
If Voslok-2O1O
is any guide, lhe sinuIaled Iaunching of TNW and of
Tochka-U piecision nissiIe sliikes againsl China sug3
gesls lhal lhe ioIe of TNW in Asia viII giov, nol de3
ciease.
155
34O
The foIIoving anaIysis fion 2OO4 look inlo accounl
lolh lhe Iiniled nucIeai capaliIily China had al lhal
line and lhe possiliIilies lhal couId ensue lased on
lhe ongoing deveIopnenl of lhose foices:
Despile lhe signihcanl quaIilalive nakeup of lhe cui3
ienl Chinese nucIeai nissiIe polenliaI, ils conlal capa3
liIilies aie quile Iiniled, il vouId haidIy le adequale lo
deslioy highIy piolecled connand and conlioI posls
and couId nol sulslanliaIIy degiade Russias giound
and sea-lased slialegic nucIeai foices. Hovevei, lhis
polenliaI vouId le capalIe of sulslanliaIIy degiad3
ing lhe Russian Iedeialion Ained Ioices gioup in
lhe Iai Laslein lhealei of MiIilaiy Opeialions and of
doing najoi danage lo lhe popuIalion and econony
nol onIy in lhe Iai Laslein and UiaIs iegions, lul even
in lhe CenliaI Region of Luiopean Russia. Accoiding
lo avaiIalIe dala, so fai China does nol have nissiIe
syslens vilh MIRVed vaiheads, lul lhe upsuige in
aclivily ieIaled lo lhe luiIding of anlinissiIe defense
(5(.#8( 7/26, 077#6#+0.# &.( ,#%#6/*8#-. /1 ."0. .5*#
of veapons syslen, incIuding anlinissiIe defense
counleineasuies. Il shouId le noled lhal lhe IRCs
econonic and lechnoIogicaI polenliaI is quile adequale
foi a quanlilalive and quaIilalive lieaklhiough in lhe
aiea of ils slialegic offensive veapons deveIopnenl.
156
Civen lhe afoienenlioned discoveiies of gioving
Chinese inleiesl in and capaliIilies foi using nucIeai
veapons lhal suggesl consideialion of a second sliike
capaliIily, vhich can aIso pul nuch piessuie on Rus3
sias Iacihc IIeel and Russian Asia, il is undeisland3
alIe vhy ve see a ielhinking of Russias nucIeai slial3
egy in Asia.
157
Thus, Moscov is aIieady incieasingIy anlivaIenl
aloul lhe INI Tiealy of 1987-88. WhiIe lhis pail of a
heighlened anlivaIence aloul nosl of lhe Coilachev-
eias ains conlioI liealies aie veiy nuch lied lo lhe
341
consequences of NATO enIaigenenl, lhe appiehen3
sion aloul lhis liealy ieecls Russian conceins aloul
Chinas (and Iians) nissiIe luiIdup. As Russian ofh3
ciaIs fion Iulin on dovn have aigued, olhei counliies
lo Russias soulh and easl aie luiIding such nissiIes,
lul Aneiica and Russia aie delaiied fion doing so.
In Oclolei 2OO7:
Mi. Iulin said lhal Russia vouId Ieave lhe INI liealy
unIess il vas luined inlo a gIolaI agieenenl lo con3
sliain olhei slales, incIuding lhose Iocaled in oui neai
vicinily. He did nol idenlify any counliy lul Iian
and Noilh Koiea aie vilhin lhe iange coveied ly lhe
liealy. Dnilii Ieskov, a KienIin spokesnan, Ialei ac3
knovIedged lhal China, India and Iakislan had ne3
diun-iange nissiIe capaliIilies. He insisled lhal Mi.
Iulin vas conceined aloul an inlaIance of iegionaI
secuiily ialhei lhan any specihc lhieal.
158
ul lhese ienaiks aIso denonsliales lhal Mos3
cov cannol pulIicIy ieveaI oi confionl ils liue lhieal
peiceplions and consequenlIy lIanes Washinglon
foi ils faiIuie lo lake Russian inleiesls inlo accounl.
Thus, vhiIe Moscov had piivaleIy loId Washinglon
il vanled nediun iange nissiIes lo counlei Iianian
lhieals, il pulIicIy aigued lhal lhe Iack of Iianian nis3
siIes neanl lhe U.S. did nol need a defense syslen.
159
As pail of lhis delale, CeneiaI VIadinii VasiIenko
iaised lhe issue of Russian vilhdiavaI fion lhe liealy
aflei Seigei Ivanov did so in 2OO5, lhough il is difhcuIl
lo see vhal Russia vouId gain ly a vilhdiavaI fion
lhal liealy.
16O
Iuilheinoie, il is ly no neans cIeai
lhal Moscov couId iegeneiale pioduclion foi eilhei
IRMs oi ICMs, lecause of pioduclion difhcuIlies.
!"#+#1/+#9 0 '&.",+0'06 1+/8 ."# .+#0.5 7/26, 07.2063
Iy fuilhei dininish Russian secuiily, nol enhance il.
161

342
ConsequenlIy,
162
VasiIenko aIso slaled lhal lhe naluie
and conposilion of any fuluie U.S.-NATO nissiIe
defense vouId deleinine lhe naluie and nunlei of
fuluie Russian nissiIe foices and syslens. Theiefoie,
he aigued in 2OO5 lhal:
Russia shouId give piioiily lo high-suivivalIe noliIe
giound and navaI nissiIe syslens vhen pIanning lhe
deveIopnenl of lhe foice in lhe neai and fai fuluie. . . .
The quaIily of lhe slialegic nucIeai foices of Russia
viII have lo le signihcanlIy inpioved in leins of add3
ing lo lheii capaliIily of penelialing |nissiIe defensej
laiiieis and incieasing lhe suivivaliIily of conlal eI3
enenls and enhancing lhe piopeilies of suiveiIIance
and conlioI syslens.
163
OlviousIy such advocacy iepiesenls a lianspaienl
denand foi nev, vasl, and unaffoidalIe niIilaiy pio3
gians, siniIai lo lhe denand foi ieaclivaling pioduc3
lion of IRMs iegaidIess of consequences. ul in lhal
case, Russias goveinnenl and niIilaiy aie, as NikoIai
Sokov suggesled, posluIaling an inheienl Lasl-Wesl
ennily lhal is onIy pailiaIIy and inconpIeleIy lul3
liessed ly nuluaI deleiience.
164
VasiIenkos iecon3
nended posluie nakes no sense in lodays slialegic
cIinale, especiaIIy vhen viiluaIIy eveiy Russian niIi3
laiy Ieadei iepealedIy piocIains, as did Chief of Slaff
CeneiaI Yuii aIuyevsky lhiough 2OO6, lhal no pIan
foi vai vilh NATO is undei consideialion and lhal
lhe nain lhieal lo Russia is leiioiisn, nol NATO and
nol Aneiica.
165
ul since lhen, as is appaienl lo eveiy3
one, NATO and Aneiica have lecone eneny nunlei
one. NeveilheIess, al lhe sane line, lhal posluie aIso
openIy vains eijing and Tehian of Russian suspi3
cions conceining lheii anlilions and capaliIilies.
343
Russias ieaclion lo Asian niIilaiy chaIIenges con3
piises lolh convenlionaI foice iefoins and nucIeai
slialegies. Heie ve iesliicl ouiseIves lo nucIeai is3
sues. The Iacihc IIeel viII le lhe nain eel and one
of lvo nucIeai eels, suggesling lhal lhe nain nis3
sion of lhe eel is lo piovide a ieIialIe second-sliike
deleiienl. The nission of lhe non-nucIeai vesseIs of
lhe eel is lo piolecl lhe looneis (nucIeai ained
sulnaiines) and pievenl hosliIe foices fion coning
vilhin iange. In olhei voids, Russia is foIIoving a
deleiience slialegy heie jusl as lhey aie in Luiope.
MeanvhiIe, Russias Iong-lein ieainanenl piogian
appaienlIy envisions lhe ienevaI of lhe sulnaiine
eel as nucIeai piopeIIed nuIliioIe sulnaiines, in an
effoil lo save noney. Thiee nissions foi lhen viII le
anli-sulnaiine vaifaie, anli-aiiciafl caiiiei nissions
(nainIy againsl U.S. caiiiei lallIe gioups), and allack3
ing suiface ships and lianspoils. They viII le ained
vilh piecision convenlionaI veapons in an effoil lo le
a slialegic non-nucIeai deleiience foice.
166

!"# ,+&%# ./ ."# >+7.&7 06(/ *+#(2**/(#( ."# 2(# /1
lolh Iacihc and Noilhein IIeels, in pailicuIai lhe Ial3
lei vhich is aIso a nucIeai ained eel, as a sving eel
lhal can chaIIenge enenies fion lhe Noilh Iacihc,
piesunalIy fion lases lheie. }usl as lhal eel has a
laslion oi laslions in lhe KoIa IeninsuIa, so loo does
lhe Iacihc IIeel have ils najoi lases vhich lhe Noilh3
ein IIeel oi eIenenls lheieof nay le lasked lo heIp
defend. AIleinaliveIy, lhe Noilhein IIeel and Russian
aii foices lased in lhe high noilh viII le used lo sveep
lhe Noilh Iacihc of eneny aii and navaI assels. None3
lheIess and even lhough lhe Iai Lasl is veiy nuch a
navaI lhealei, Moscovs nain inveslnenls lhiough
2O1O viII evidenlIy go nol so nuch lo lhe Navy as lo
nucIeai veapons (lo iediess Russias convenlionaI
344
infeiioiily vis-a-vis U.S. and Chinese lhieals) and lo
aii and aii defense in oidei lo foieslaII a Kosovo-Iike
aeiiaI canpaign.
167
Al lhe convenlionaI IeveI, apail fion ongoing
+#&-1/+7#8#-. /+ +#(2**65 /1 ."# 1/+7#( '&." '"0. &(
hoped lo le noie advanced convenlionaI veapons
and inpioved liaining and quaIily of lhe nanpovei
(a veiy dulious assunplion given lhe inaliIily and ie3
fusaI lo luiId a liuIy piofessionaI Ainy), iefoin aIso
#-.0&6( #)*#+&8#-.( &- -#' 1/+7# (.+27.2+#( 0-, +0*&,
ieaclion foices. WhiIe convenlionaI foices in lhe Iai
Lasl viII have no choice lul lo hghl al lhe end of a
piecaiious suppIy Iine in an ausleie lhealei, Moscov
is liying lo deveIop a funclioning nechanisn of iapid
iesponse and aiiIifl (lhe idea of lhe sving eel aIso
pIays heie) fion Russias Noilh oi inleiioi lo lhieal3
ened seclois of lhe lhealei. This piogian of aiiIifl and
iapid aii noliIily aIso appIies lo nucIeai foices.
168

Second, Russia is luiIding an inlegialed, noliIe,
and aII ains (if nol conlined ains) foice, consisling
of Iand, aii, and sea foices capalIe of deaIing vilh
faiIing slale scenaiios, insuigencies, leiioiisn, sce3
naiios invoIving Iaige-scaIe ciininaI aclivilies, and
uIlinaleIy convenlionaI allack. Thiid, if, hovevei, lhe
scaIe of lhe lhieal oveivheIns oi is loo Iaige foi lhe
7/-%#-.&/-06 1/+7#(9 ,/7.+&-# #%&,#-.65 7/-.&-2#( ./
poinl lo lhe use of nucIeai veapons (piolalIy laclicaI
oi vhal Moscov caIIs non-slialegic nucIeai veapons
|NSNWj) in a hisl-sliike oi possilIy even pievenlive
node as slaled ly aIuyevsky on }anuaiy 2O, 2OO8:
169

We do nol inlend lo allack anyone, lul ve considei
&. -#7#((0+5 1/+ 066 /2+ *0+.-#+( &- ."# '/+6, 7/8823
nily lo cIeaiIy undeisland . . . lhal lo defend lhe sovei3
eignly and leiiiloiiaI inlegiily of Russia and ils aIIies,
niIilaiy foices viII le used, incIuding pievenliveIy,
incIuding vilh lhe use of nucIeai veapons.
17O
345
Russian connenlalois noled lhal he vas speaking
enliieIy vilhin lhe paianeleis of eslalIished Russian
,/7.+&-# 0-, ."0. "# #((#-.&0665 7/-7#,#, ."# 10&62+#
/1 7/-%#-.&/-06 1/+7#( ./ *+/%&,# 0,#=20.# ,#1#-(#
and deleiience al lhe high end of lhe specliun of con3
icl.
171
eyond lhal, aIuyevsky invoked lhe use of nu3
cIeai veapons in a hisl oi pievenlive sliike lo defend
aIIies. WhiIe he piolalIy neanl IaigeIy lhe CIS slales
lo vhich Moscov has exlended an unsoIiciled nucIeai
unlieIIa, in lhe conlexl of Russias Asia-Iacihc leiii3
loiies, his ienaiks liing us lo lhe poIilicaI dinensions
of Russias effoils lo oveicone lhe slialegic chaIIenges
il faces lheie. Heie again, ve see lhe incIinalion lo
."+#0.#- 6&8&.#, -276#0+ '0+ 0( *0+. /1 ."# ,#.#++#-7#
slialegy.
Chinas iise piesenls Russia vilh difhcuIl choices,
especiaIIy given ils nucIeai navaI dehciencies. Russia
nusl lake accounl of lhe gioving inleinaI piessuie in
China lo alandon ils no hisl use poIicy and Chinas
incieased nucIeai and appaienl second-sliike capaliI3
ily, even as il nusl ieduce ils nucIeai foices.
172
!"&(
dovnvaid piessuie on lhe Iai Lasls iegionaI aisenaI
vas aIieady appaienl in 2OO4-O5, and if aIuyevskys
ienaiks aie lo le laken seiiousIy, il is IikeIy lhal lhe
Noilhein IIeels nucIeai foices and Russias NSNW
viII lecone noie inpoilanl foi consideialion of de3
leiience oi hisl sliike in lhe Asian as veII as Luiopean
lhealei. As of 2OO4:
CuiienlIy, aloul 2O of lhe depIoyed Russian sliale3
gic nucIeai foices ienain in lhe Laslein pail of Rus3
sia. As slialegic foices shiink, lhe pace of ieduclions
in lhe iegion is lhe faslesl. In pailicuIai, lhiee of lhe
foui divisions of lhe Russian Slialegic Ioices lhal have
leen dislanded since 2OOO veie Iocaled heie. And lhe
346
ieduclions viII conlinue. Mosl IikeIy, lhe SS-18 lase
al Uzhui viII le cIosed dovn aflei 2O1O. The fuluie
of lhe SS-25 noliIe inleiconlinenlaI laIIislic nissiIes
(ICMs) is aIso unceilain, as lhey aie gelling oIdei.
The sulnaiine lase on lhe Kanchalka peninsuIa viII
IikeIy no Iongei hosl slialegic sulnaiines once lhe Iasl
DeIla-III nucIeai sulnaiines viII le ieliied. Thus, pei3
haps, lhe onIy pIace vheie slialegic foices viII ienain
in lhis pail of Russia is Ukiainka, lhe hone of slialegic
lonleis. As depIoynenl of slialegic nucIeai foices in
lhe Laslein pail of Russia is cuilaiIed, non-slialegic
nucIeai veapons in lhe iegion nay le assigned a
sliongei ioIe. Accoiding lo lhe aulhois assessnenl,
neaiIy one lhiid of lhe 3,3OO Russian non-slialegic
veapons aie assigned foi depIoynenl vilh geneiaI-
puipose foices in lhe Sileiian and Iai Laslein niIilaiy
disliicls. AII of lhese veapons aie cuiienlIy kepl al
cenliaI sloiage faciIilies of lhe 12lh Diiecloiale of lhe
Russian Ained Ioices. In case of hosliIilies lhey can
le depIoyed vilh suiface-lo-suiface, suiface-lo-aii,
aii-lo-suiface, anli-ship, anlisulnaiine nissiIes, and
olhei duaI-use neans of lhe Ciound, Aii, and NavaI
Ioices.
173
Hovevei, if nucIeai nissions giov in inpoilance,
lhal viII inhilil any possilIe Noilh Koiean disposi3
lion lo give up ils exisling nucIeai veapons, nol lo
nenlion foiegoing nev nucIeai veapons. SiniIaiIy,
}apan and Soulh Koiea viII eilhei le fuilhei lenpled
lo go nucIeai oi cIing evei noie lo Washinglon, vho
vouId IikeIy inciease ils iegionaI niIilaiy piesence
undei such condilions.
174
!"#+#1/+#9 0 *2+#65 8&6&.0+5
and veiy consideialIe nucIeai slialegy Ieads Russia
inlo a slialegic dead end. A poIilicaI slialegy is es3
senliaI and even paianounl in Russias endeavois lo
defuse polenliaI secuiily chaIIenges.
347
6;5673!-;5!
NucIeai veapons issues deseive lhe nosl seii3
ous, iigoious, and solei lhoughl lased on evidence
fion lhe aclions of goveinnenls olhei lhan lhe Uniled
Slales. The foiegoing anaIysis shovs lhal nuch U.S.
viiling aloul lhe inuliIily oi senseIessness of nu3
cIeai veapons is nispIaced, unfounded, and lased
on a faiIuie lo lake inlo accounl lhe evidence of olhei
goveinnenls lhinking and poIicies. Russia is ly no
neans lhe onIy goveinnenl vhose piogians nusl le
seiiousIy consideied. Those vho aigue lhal nucIeai
veapons aie onIy good foi deleiiing nucIeai allacks
nighl piohl ly noie seiious sludy of Russia, Iaki3
slan, China, and IsiaeI, lo cile onIy a fev exanpIes.
They nighl aIso ienenlei lhal in 1987 Iiaq Iaunched
chenicaI nissiIes againsl Iian in dehance of inleina3
lionaI agieenenls, and lhal Iian, nol iiialionaIIy diev
lhe appiopiiale concIusions fion lhose allacks.
If ve aie lo nake piogiess lovaids lhe nolIe goaI
of aloIilion and enhanced gIolaI secuiily, a noie iig3
oious undeislanding of conlenpoiaiy inleinalionaI
ieIalions, slialegy, and poIilics is needed, nol noie
noiaIisn oi vishfuI lhinking. Il is cIeai lhal, foi nany
(.0.#(9 -276#0+ '#0*/-( (#+%# 80-5 2(#126 *2+*/(#(
apail fion gaining lig povei slalus oi ielaining il.
We cannol nake piogiess heie unliI ve ieaIize lhal,
foi vhalevei ieason, olhei nalions genuineIy feeI
lhiealened, and nol jusl psychoIogicaIIy depiived.
A solei unsenlinenlaI anaIysis vouId conhin lhal
poinl ialhei lhan slignalizing lhese slales as leing
sonehov lenighled, as in IauI Wainkes nenoialIe
phiase, as apes on a lieadniII. Apail fion lhe poIicy
signihcance of Russia foi lhe Uniled Slales, Russias
slialegic posluie needs lo le undeislood and nol jusl
liushed aside.
348
If Russian Ieadeis aie lo deciease lheii ieIiance on
-276#0+ (#72+&.59 ."#5 82(. 1##6 ."0. ."#&+ (#72+&.5 &(
(/8# 80--#+ #-"0-7#,9 0 7/-762(&/- ."0. &( -/. +#0,3
iIy appaienl lo lhen al lhe piesenl. If ve aie lo con3
vince lhe Russians of lhe iighlness of ieducing lheii
ieIiance on nucIeai veapons, Iike il oi nol, ve nusl
undeisland lheii peispeclive and lake il seiiousIy.
Olheivise, as has aII loo oflen leen lhe case, ve viII
conlinue lo laIk al oi pasl each olhei. Russia denands
lhal il le laken seiiousIy. WhiIe doing so nighl nol
and piolalIy shouId nol Iead lo oui appiovaI of lheii
poIicies oi lhinking, laking Russian nucIeai posluies
seiiousIy neans engaging vilh lheii slialegy and poI3
icies, nol disnissing lhen ouliighl oi voise, depie3
caling oui ovn capaliIilies on lhe lasis of a hoped-foi
end lhal is nol giounded in enpiiicaI vaIidalion. UnliI
(27" .&8# 0( '# /+ /."#+( 70- *#+(20,# /."#+ (.0.#(
."0. ."#5 ,/ -/. -##, -276#0+ '#0*/-( ./ ,#1#-,
lhenseIves againsl us oi anyone eIse, lhe neie iepeli3
.&/- /1 ."# &-70-.0.&/- ."0. -276#0+ '#0*/-( (#+%# -/
usefuI puipose in ullei dehance of lhe facls is neieIy
an invilalion lo a disaslei.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 a
1. Slephen }. CinlaIa, NucIeai Ains conlioI Aflei a Tine
of TioulIes Maik CaIeolli, ed., Tnc Pc|i|ics cf Sccuri|q in Mcdcrn
Russia9 Iainhan, Suiiey, and uiIinglon, VT: Ashgale IulIishing
Conpany, 2OO9, pp. 1O5-122.
2. Slephen Iank, Undeleiied: The Reluin of NucIeai Wai,
Gccrgc|cun ]curna| cf |n|crna|icna| Affairs, VoI. 2, Sunnei/IaII,
2OOO, pp. 55-63.
3. Sinon Saiadzhyan, Russias Suppcr| |cr Zcrc. Tac|ica| Mctc
cr |cng-|crn Ccnni|ncn|? Canliidge, MA: eIfei Cenlei, Hai3
vaid Univeisily, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion oc|fcrccn|cr.|sg.nartard.cdu/
j|cs/russias-suppcr|-fcr-zcrc.pdf.
349
4. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn, Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O,
uuu.|rcn|in.ru, Open Souice Cenlei, Ioieign ioadcasl Infoina3
lion Seivice CenliaI Luiasia (Hencefoilh |8|S SOV), Ieliuaiy 9,
2O1O.
5. IIya Kediov, An Lxpeil LvaIualion: A UniveisaI Ainoied
VehicIe, The Infanliy Needs a IundanenlaIIy Nev Conlal Ve3
hicIe and Nol a Taxi lo lhe Ioivaid Ldge of lhe allIe Aiea,
Moscov, Russia, Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnq Kurqcr On|inc, in Russian,
May 26, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, }une 4, 2O1O.
6. Ailen Tioilsky, Inleiviev Wilh CINC Ciound Tioops
CeneiaI of lhe Ainy VIadinii AnaloIyevich oIdyiev, Mos3
cov, Russia, Vcqcnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Kurqcr, in Russian, Oclolei
1, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Oclolei 19, 2OO8.
7. Kediov.
8. Ioi an exanpIe of lhis noslaIgia foi SlaIins Ieadeiship
sliucluie of 1941-45, see CoIoneI V. V. Nalvichuk and CoIoneI A.
L. Khiyapin (Rel.), A Slialegic Deleiience Syslen Undei Nev
Condilions, Mi|i|arq Tncugn|, No. 1, 2O1O, pp. 43-49.
9. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
1O. Inleiviev Wilh Russian Iedeialion Secuiily CounciI Sec3
ielaiy NikoIai Ialiushev, Moscov, Russia, |ztcs|iqa, in Russian,
Oclolei, 14, 2OO9, |8|S SOV, Oclolei 14, 2OO9, David Novak, Re3
poil: Russia To AIIov Iie-Lnplive Nukes, Associaled Iiess, Oc3
lolei 14, 2OO9.
11. Kediov.
12. Iulin Says Russia viII luiId veapons lo offsel pIanned
US nissiIe defences, Decenlei 29, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
guardian.cc.u|/ucr|d/2009/dcc/29/nuc|car-ucapcns-russia.
13. Speech al an Lxpanded Meeling of lhe Defense Minis3
liy oaid, Maich 5, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion cng.|rcn|in.ru/spcccn-
cs/2010/03/05/2058_|qpc82913_224669.n|n|.
35O
14. IaiIuie lo luiId a piofessionaI ainy, ieluin lo consciip3
lion, Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in LngIish, May 26, 2O1O.
15. |oid.
16. Shaie of Modein Weaponiy in Russian MiIilaiy Musl
e 3O ly 2O15-Medvedev, R|A Nctcs|i, May 24, avaiIalIe fion
2010,cn.rian.ru/ni|i|arq_ncus/20100524/159135253.n|n|.
17. Maiia Anlonova, Kudiin SignaIs Sleep Spending Culs,
Tnc Mcsccu Tincs, ApiiI 7, 2O1O.
18. IaveI IeIgenhauei, Russia SliuggIes lo Modeinize Ils
MiIilaiy, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, }une 1O, 2O1O.
19. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in LngIish, }une 3, 2O1O, |8|S
SOV, }une 4, 2O1O CLI2O1OO6O7964184.
2O. |oid., Moscov, Russia, |n|ccrfax, in LngIish, }une 2O1O, |8|S
SOV, CLI 2O1OO6O7964287.
21. VIadisIav Inozenlsev, Then Mosl Modeinized, Mos3
cov, Russia, Vcdcncs|i On|inc, in Russian, Augusl 9, 2O1O, |8|S
SOV, Augusl 19, 2O1O.
22. Richaid Weilz, Slialegic Iosluie Reviev: Russia Resui3
genl, lcr|d Pc|i|ics Rcticu, }anuaiy-Ieliuaiy 2OO9, pp. 58-59.
23. Mailin Sieff, Russia ReveaIs Nev 1O-yeai Ains IIan lo
Upgiade Ained Ioices, UP|, }anuaiy 2O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.upi.ccn.
24. Dniliy Lilovkin, The Ainy WiII econe a TiiIIionaiie,
Moscov, Russia, |ztcs|iqa, in Russian, }anuaiy 2O, 2OO9, |8|S SOV9
}anuaiy 2O, 2OO9.
25. Sieff.
26. Slephen Iank, The IoIilicaI Lconony of lhe Russian
Defense Secloi, }an LeijhonhieIn and Iiedeiik WesleiIund,
eds., Russian Pcucr S|ruc|urcs. Prcscn| and |u|urc Rc|cs in Russian
Pc|i|ics, SlockhoIn, Sveden: Svedish Defense Reseaich Agency,
351
2OO8, pp. 97-128, SlanisIav Seciieiiu, IIIusion of Iovei: Russia
Aflei lhe Soulh Caucasus allIe, C|PS lcr|ing Dccuncn|, No.
311, Ieliuaiy, 2OO9, p. 5, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ccps.oc (CLIS slands
foi Cenlei foi Luiopean IoIicy Sludies), AIexandei Chuykov,
uIava and DoIgoiuky UnveiIing, Moscov, Russia, Arguncn|q
| |a||q, in Russian, }une 18, 2OO9, |8|S SOV, }une 18, 2OO9.
27. AIexandei Chuykov, uIava and DoIgoiuky (UnveiI3
ing), Moscov, Russia, Arguncn|q Ncdc|i On|inc, in Russian, }une
18, 2OO9, |8|S SOV, }une 18, 2OO9, AIexandei Chuykov, The Cii3
sis Has Caughl Up vilh lhe MiIilaiy ases, Moscov, Russia, Ar-
guncn|q Ncdc|i On|inc, in Russian, }une 25, 2OO9, |8|S SOV, }une
15, 2OO9, Moscov, Russia, Princ-TASS On|inc, in Russian, }une 29,
2OO9, |8|S SOV, }une 29, 2OO9.
28. Rogei McDeinoll, Russia IIexes Ils MiIilaiy MuscIe,
}anuaiy 4, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.guardian.cc.u|.
29. Calheiine eIlon, Russian Lconony IIunnels 1O.1,
|inancia| Tincs, }uIy 15, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.f|.ccn.
3O. Rogei McDeinoll, Russias NalionaI Secuiily Slialegy,
|urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, May 19, 2OO9.
31. IaveI IeIgenhauei, Russia WiII Spend 2O TiiIIion RulIes
on Nev Weapons, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, }uIy 22, 2O1O.
32. |oid.
33. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax in Russian, }uIy 28, 2O1O, |8|S
SOV, }uIy 28, 2O1O.
34. IeIgenhauei, Russia WiII Spend 2O TiiIIion RulIes on
Nev Weapons.
35. |oid.
36. Russia in Counlei-Tiend: Defense Spending WiII Inciease
ly 6O in 2O13, avaiIalIe fion uuu.aticncus.c|cn, Russian De3
fense Spending To Rise y 6O ly 2O13, R|A Nctcs|i, }uIy 3O, 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/ni|i|arq_ncus/201000730/16000003543.
n|n|.
352
37. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax-AVN On|inc, in Russian, Augusl
5, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, Augusl 5, 2O1O.
38. VIadinii KaIinin, ReaIilies, Moscov, Russia, Nczatisi-
ncqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc, in Russian, Augus| 6, 2O1O, IIS SOV9
Augusl 6, 2O1O.
39. Renaiks ly Slephen Iank, Lugene Runei, MikhaiI Tsyp3
kin , and AIexandei CoIls al lhe Heiilage Ioundalion Iiogian,
The Russian MiIilaiy: Modeinizalion and lhe Iuluie, ApiiI 8,
2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ncri|agc.crg/prcss/ctcn|s/ct040808a.cfn,
Slephen Iank, CiviI-MiIilaiy ReIalions and Russian Secuiily,
Slephen Iank, ed., Ccn|cnpcrarq |ssucs in |n|crna|icna| Sccuri|q,
Russian, |urcpcan, and Ancrican Vicus, CaiIisIe, IA: Slialegic
Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege, Ioilhconing.
4O. }uIian Coopei, The 'Secuiily Lconony, Maik CaIeolli,
ed., Tnc Pc|i|ics cf Sccuri|q in Mcdcrn Russia9 Iainhan, Suiiey and
uiIinglon, VT: Ashgale IulIishing Conpany, 2OO9, pp. 145-169.
41. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
42. |oid.
43. |oid.
44. Russia CouId Iocus On TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons Ioi
Suls, R|A Nctcs|i, Maich 23, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/rus-
sia/20090323/120688454.n|n|.
45. Na|sicna|naqa S|ra|cgiqa 8czcpasncs|i Rcssii, dc 2020 Gcda9
Moscov, Russia: Secuiily CounciI of lhe Russian Iedeialion, May
12, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.scrf.gct.ru, in LngIish, |8|S SOV9
May 15, 2OO9, Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
46. Texl of Speeches ly Iiesidenl Dniliy Medvedev and De3
fense Minislei AnaloIy Seidyukov al a Defense Minisliy CoIIegi3
un, Sanaia VoIga Infoin, in Russian, Maich 17, 2OO9, |8|S SOV9
Maich 17, 2OO9.
47. |oid.
353
48. CoIin Ciay, Hcusc cf Cards, Ilhaca, NY: CoineII Univei3
sily Iiess, 1991, Keilh Iayne, Dc|crrcncc |n |nc Scccnd Nuc|car Agc9
Lexinglon, KY: Univeisily Iiess of Kenlucky, 1996, Keilh Iayne,
|a||acics cf Cc|d lar Dc|crrcncc and a Ncu Dircc|icn, Lexinglon, KY:
Univeisily Iiess of Kenlucky, 2OO1, AIexei Ailalov and CeneiaI
(Rel.) VIadinii Dvoikin, 8cqcnd Nuc|car Dc|crrcncc. Transfcrning
|nc U.S.-Russian |qua|icn, Washinglon, DC: Cainegie Lndovnenl
foi InleinalionaI Ieace, 2OO6, }ohn I. Sleinliunei, Ioievoid.
49. Ialiick M. Moigan, Dc|crrcncc Ncu, Canliidge, UK: Can3
liidge Univeisily Iiess, 2OO3, pp. 26-32.
5O. |oid., p. 66.
51. Moscov, Russia, Agcn|s|tc Vcqcnnq|n Nctcs|cq |n|crnc|
Vcrsicn, in Russian, Seplenlei 1O, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Seplenlei 1O,
2OO8.
52. |oid.
53. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish, ApiiI 6, 2O1O,
|8|S SOV, ApiiI 6, 2O1O.
54. |oid.
55. Russia CouId Iocus On TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons Ioi
Suls, R|A Nctcs|i, Maich 23, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/rus-
sia/20090323/120688454.n|n|.
56. iIdl IIays Dovn Russian NucIeai Thieal, Tnc |cca|9
Augusl 18, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|nc|cca|.sc/13780/20080818,
Maik Iianchelli, Russias Nev NucIeai ChaIIenge lo Luiope,
Tincs On|inc, Augusl 17, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|incscn|inc.
cc.u|/|c|/ncus/ucr|dcurcpc/ar|ic|c4547883.ccc.
57. Russian MiIilaiy Chief Defends Nonslialegic Nukes,
G|coa| Sccuri|q Ncusuirc, Decenlei 17, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion gsn.
n|i.crg.
58. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
354
59. Open Souice Connillee, OSC Ana|qsis, Augusl 1, 2OO8,
|8|S SOV, Augusl 4, 2OO8.
6O. Mailin Sieff, Russians el On Dens Iassion Ioi Ains
ConlioI, Decenlei 19, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.upi.ccn, US
Sen Lugai HopefuI On Reneving Russia NucIeai Ains Tiealy,
Agcncc |rancc-Prcssc, Decenlei 19, 2OO8, give lhe lvo conicling
inpiessions as lo vhelhei oi nol Russia is lying lhose nissiIe de3
fenses lo achievenenl of a slialegic nucIeai nissiIe liealy.
61. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS in LngIish, Seplenlei 11,
2OO8, |8|S SOV, Seplenlei 11, 2OO8.
62. IaveI Iodvig, RevoIulion in MiIilaiy Affaiis: ChaIIenges
lo Russias Secuiily, Iapei Iiesenled al lhe VTT Lneigy Slyx
Seninai, HeIsinki, IinIand, Seplenlei 4, 2OO1, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.arnsccn|c|.ru/Pcdtig/cng/puo|ica|icns/nisc/20010904s|qx.sn|n.
63. Moscov, Russia, Ztczda Tc|ctisicn, in Russian, Seplenlei
11, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Seplenlei 11, 2OO8.
64. Inleiviev vilh Russian Ioieign Minislei Seigei Laviov,
Waisav, IoIand, Gazc|a lqocrcza, Seplenlei 11, 2OO8, and Mos3
cov, Russia, Minis|rq cf |crcign Affairs |n|crnc| Vcrsicn, in LngIish,
Seplenlei 15, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Seplenlei 15, 2OO8.
65. |oid.
66. Dnilii SoIovyov, Russia Says Il Musl Have NucIeai Iai3
ily Wilh U.S., Rcu|crs, Decenlei 7, 2OO7, Moscov, Russia, |n|cr-
fax, in LngIish, Oclolei 1, 2OO4, |8|S SOV, Oclolei 1, 2OO4.
67. Tiansciipl of Renaiks and Response lo Media Queslions
ly Russian Ioieign Minislei Seigey Laviov al Iiess Confeience
in ReIalion lo lhe Upconing Signing of a Tiealy lelveen Russia
and lhe USA on Measuies lo Iuilhei Reduclion and Linilalion of
Slialegic Offensive Ains, Moscov, Russia, ApiiI 6, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.nid.ru.
68. UncIassihed Slalenenl of Lieulenanl CeneiaI Ialiick
}. OReiIIy, USA, Diiecloi, MissiIe Defense Agency, efoie lhe
House Ained Seivices Connillee Regaiding MissiIe Defense in
Luiope, Oclolei 1, 2OO9.
355
69. Tiansciipl of Renaiks and Response lo Media Queslions
ly Russian Ioieign Minislei Seigey Laviov al Iiess Confeience
in ReIalion lo lhe Upconing Signing of a Tiealy lelveen Russia
and lhe USA on Measuies lo Iuilhei Reduclion and Linilalion of
Slialegic Offensive Ains, Moscov, Russia, ApiiI 6, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.nid.ru, Moscov, Russia, Minis|rq cf |crcign Affairs
cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn, in LngIish, May 24, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, May
24, 2O1O.
7O. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax , in LngIish, Maich 16, 2O1O, |8|S
SOV Maich 16, 2O1O.
71. WiIIian }. Ieiiy and Ceoige I. ShuIlz, Hov lo uiId on
lhe Slail Tiealy, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, ApiiI 11, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.nq|incs.ccn.
72. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish, ApiiI 6, 2O1O,
|8|S SOV, ApiiI 6, 2O1O.
73. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
74. US Does Ils esl lo AcceIeiale Diafling of Nev START-
Slale Depailnenl Aide,Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS in LngIish,
Novenlei 14, 2OO9, |8|S SOV Novenlei 14, 2OO9.
75. Russia Says Ains ConlioI TaIks HeId Up y US MissiIe
ShieId IIan, G|coa| Sccuri|q Ncusuirc, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg9
Ieliuaiy 22, 2O1O, Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in LngIish, Ieliuaiy
9, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, Ieliuaiy 9, 2O1O.
76. Iulin Says Russia viII luiId veapons lo offsel pIanned
US nissiIe defences.
77. Vikloi Lilovkin, Slialegic Reseivalions in Ceneva, Mos3
cov, and Washinglon Seek Conpionise on START, ul on Theii
Ovn Teins, Moscov, Russia, Nczatisincqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcni-
qc, in Russian, }anuaiy 22, 22O1O, |8|S SOV, Ieliuaiy 1O, 2O1O,
LIIen aiiy, Iulin Sounds Waining on Ains TaIks, Ncu Ycr|
Tincs, Decenlei 3O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nq|incs.ccn, Mos3
cov, Russia, ||nc Mcs|tq Agcncq, in Russian, Decenlei 29, 2OO9,
|8|S SOV, Decenlei 29, 2OO9.
356
78. Open Souice Cenlei, Russians Renain IulIicIy Oplinis3
lic On Nev START Tiealy, }anuaiy 7, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, }anuaiy 7,
2O1O, Russian Depuly Ioieign Minislei Seigei Ryalkov Inleiviev
lo lhe Inleifax Nevs Agency, Moscov, Russia, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.nid.ru (Minis|rq cf |crcign Affairs cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn),
in LngIish, Ieliuaiy 25, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, Ieliuaiy 25, 2O1O, An3
diey Laviov, START I IaIleis Ovei MissiIe Defense, Moscov,
Russia, Nctaqa Pc|i|i|a, in Russian, Ieliuaiy 27, 2O1O, |8|S SOV9
Maich 2, 2O1O.
79. YaiosIav Vyalkin, Ained Ioices Iighl foi lhe TilIe of
WoiId Chanpion in lhe NucIeai Heavyveighl CIass, Moscov,
Russia, Arguncn| | Ncdc|i On|inc, in Russian, Maich 11, 2O1O, |8|S
SOV, Maich 11, 2O1O.
8O. }osh Rogin, Slage Sel foi Nev Iighl Ovei START Tiealy,
Tnc Cao|c, Ieliuaiy 17, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion |nccao|c.fcrcignpc|icq.
ccn/pcs|s/2010/01/17/s|agc_sc|+fcr+ncu_jgn|_ctcr_nissi|c_dcfcnsc.
81. |oid.
82. MissiIe ShieId ShouId ConpIeleIy Covei Luiope ly 2O18,
U.S. Says, G|coa| Sccuri|q Ncusuirc, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg9
ApiiI 16, 2O1O.
83. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish, Maich 22, 2O1O,
|8|S SOV, Maich 22, 2O1O.
84. Andiei UgIanov, Whal is ehind Washinglons UIlina3
lun` Moscov, Russia, Arguncn| Ncdc|i9 in Russian Maich 1O-17,
2O1O, ]cnnscns Russia |is|, Maich 17, 2O1O.
85. |oid.
86. Moscov IuIIs lhe iake Al START TaIks, Moscov, Rus3
(&09 |TAR-TASS, Maich 11, 2O1O, in LngIish, |8|S SOV, Maich 11,
2O1O, Ielei akei, Tvisls and Tuins On Way lo Ains Iacl Wilh
Russia, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, Maich 27, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
nq|incs.ccn, Maiy elh Sheiidan and MichaeI D. Sheai, U.S.,
Russia Agiee To NucIeai Ains ConlioI Tiealy, lasning|cn Pcs|9
Maich 27, 2O1O, p. AO2.
357
87. Inleiviev vilh Ioieign Minislei Seigei Laviov, Rcssi-
qs|aqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 21-28, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nid.ru.
88. AIexai Ailalov, Russia and |nc Uni|cd S|a|csTinc Tc |nd
|nc S|ra|cgic Dcad|cc|, Moscov, Russia: Cainegie Moscov Cenlei,
}une 2OO8, p. 2.
89. Ryalkov, Inleiviev, |8|S SOV, Ieliuaiy 25, 2O1O.
9O. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in LngIish, Ieliuaiy 6, 2O1O,
|8|S SOV, Ieliuaiy 6, 2O1O.
91. Iulin Says Russia viII luiId veapons lo offsel pIanned
US nissiIe defences.
92. Diniliy Rogozhin and oiis Cionov, Open Lellei, Ncu
Ycr| Tincs, Maich 17, 2O1O. The Russians feai lhal lhe Sn-3 can
shool dovn lhe IRMs.
93. Mailin Nesiisky, Russia Says ThieshoId Lovei foi Nu3
cIeai Weapons, Rcu|crs, Decenlei 17, 1999.
94. Tioilsky.
95. Moscov, Russia, Agcn|s|tc Vcqcnnq|n Nctcs|cq |n|crnc|
Vcrsicn, in LngIish, Seplenlei 29, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Seplenlei 29,
2OO8.
96. Russian MiIilaiy Chief Defends Nonslialegic Nukes,
G|coa| Sccuri|q Ncusuirc, Decenlei 17, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion gsn.
n|i.crg.
97. Rogei McDeinoll, Reeclions on Voslok 2O1O: SeIIing
an Inage, lcr|d Sccuri|q Nc|ucr|, }uIy 2O, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.ucr|dsccuri|qnc|ucr|.ccn/sncuAr|ic|c3.cfn?ar|ic|c_id=183
55c|cpic|D=54.
98. Moscov, Russia, Agcn|s|tc Vcqcnnq|n Nctcs|cq |n|crnc|
Vcrsicn, in LngIish, Seplenlei 29, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Seplenlei 29,
2OO8., Russia Oideis 7O NucIeai MissiIes ly 2O11, Repoil, dc-
fcnscncus.ccn 1+/8 Agcncc-|rancc Prcssc Decenlei 22, 2OO8.
358
99. Russia To AIIocale $35.3 iIIion Ioi Ains Iioduclion in
2OO9-11, R|A Nctcs|i, Decenlei 12, 2OO8, Russian MiIilaiy Con3
hins 13 Slialegic MissiIe Launches foi 2OO9, R|A Nctcs|i, De3
cenlei 12, 2OO8.
1OO. Inleiviev Wilh Russian Iedeialion Secuiily CounciI Sec3
ielaiy NikoIai Ialiushev, Moscov, Russia, |ztcs|iqa, in Russian,
Oclolei, 14, 2OO9, |8|S SOV, Oclolei 14, 2OO9, David Novak, Re3
poil: Russia To AIIov Iie-Lnplive Nukes, Assccia|cd Prcss9 B73
lolei 14, 2OO9.
1O1. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in Russian, Decenlei 16, 2OO9,
|8|S SOV, Decenlei 16, 2OO9.
1O2. See Russias Iasl docliine of 2OOO, Moscov, Russia, Ncza-
tisincqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc in Russian, }anuaiy 14, 2OOO, |8|S
SOV, }anuaiy 14, 2OOO.
1O3. |8|S SOV, Decenlei 16, 2OO9.
1O4. Russia CouId Iocus On TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons Ioi
Suls, R|A Nctcs|i, Maich 23, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/rus-
sia/20090323/120688454.n|n|.
1O5. |oid.
1O6. iIdl IIays Dovn Russian NucIeai Thieal, Tnc |cca|9
Augusl 18, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|nc|cca|.sc/13780/20080818,
Maik Iianchelli, Russias Nev NucIeai ChaIIenge lo Luiope,
Tincs On|inc, Augusl 17, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|incscn|inc.
cc.u|/|c|/ncus/ucr|dcurcpc/ar|ic|c4547883.ccc.
1O7. Russias Nevesl Sulnaiine-Launched MissiIe IaiIs
in Tesls, ul Tesls of Olhei Syslens Succeed: Defense Minislei
Ivanov Raises Queslions on Slalus of Russian Sea-ased TaclicaI
NucIeai Weapons, lMD |nsign|s, Novenlei 2OO6.
1O8. iIdl IIays Dovn Russian NucIeai Thieal, Iianchelli.
1O9. Kediov.
359
11O. Russia RVSN MiIilaiy Acadeny Discussing Slia3
legic Deleiience, |TAR-TASS, Seplenlei 22, 2OO8, }ohn3
sons Russia Lisl, No. 173, Seplenlei 22, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion
uu.ucr|dsccuri|qins|i|u|c.crg.
111. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in LngIish, Decenlei 17, 2OO9.
112. Vipin Naiang, Iosluiing Ioi Ieace` Iakislans NucIeai
Iosluies and Soulh Asian SlaliIily, |n|crna|icna| Sccuri|q, VoI.
XXXIV, No. 3, Winlei 2OO9/1O, p. 41.
113. |oid., p. 44.
114. Moscov, Russia, ||nc Mcs|tq Radic in Russian, Decen3
lei 15, 2OO9, |8|S SOV, Decenlei 15, 2OO9, Na|sicna|naqa S|ra|c-
giqa 8czcpasncs|i Rcssii, dc 2020 Gcda, Moscov, Russia, Secuiily
CounciI of lhe Russian Iedeialion, May 12, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.scrf.gct.ru, in LngIish, |8|S SOV, May 15, 2OO9, in a liansIa3
lion fion lhe Secuiily CounciI velsile avaiIalIe fion uuu.scrf.
gct.ru.
115. |8|S SOV, Decenlei 15, 2OO9.
116. Slephen Iank,Russias Slialegic DiIennas in Asia, Pa-
cijc |ccus, VoI. XXIII, No. 3, Decenlei, 2OO8, pp. 271-293.
117. Mallhev Day, Russia 'SinuIales NucIeai Allack On
IoIand, Novenlei 2, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|c|grapn.cc.u|.
118. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax-AVN in LngIish, Oclolei 12,
2OO9, |8|S SOV, Oclolei 12, 2OO9
119. Vikloi Myasnikov, VIadinii Ivanov, and Anlon Khoda3
sevich, Lukashenka Iiesses NucIeai ullon, Moscov, Russia,
Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, in Russian, }une 26, 2OO6, |8|S SOV, }une 26,
2OO6.
12O. Dnilii Lilovkin, Defense Minislei: Any Laige-ScaIe Ma3
neuveis Aie a Shov of Slienglh as WeII as a Tiaining Lxeicise,
Moscov, Russia, |ztcs|iqa, in Russian, Novenlei 2, 2OO5, |8|S
SOV, Novenlei 2, 2OO5.
36O
121. }ussi Konlinen, Russia IIans lo DepIoy Sone of ils Nev
MissiIes Nexl lo IinIand, HeIsinki, HS.6, in Iinnish, Maich 29,
2O1O, |8|S SOV, Maich 29, 2O1O.
122. Russia Says May Yel DepIoy Iskandei MissiIes in aIlic
LxcIave, R|A Nctcs|i, Ieliuaiy 19, 2O1O.
123. akei, aiiy.
124. Speech al an Lxpanded Meeling of lhe Defense Minis3
liy oaid, Maich 5, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion cng.|rcn|in.ru/spcccn-
cs/2010/03/05/2058_|qpc82913_224669.n|n|.
125. Russian Leadeis Seen in Lockslep Duiing lhe START
TaIks, G|coa| Sccuri|q Ncusuirc, ApiiI 1, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.n|i.crg.
126. Slephen Iank, IiesidenliaI Succession: The AchiIIes
HeeI of Russian IoIilics, Pcrspcc|itcs, Ioilhconing.
127. IhiIIip I. Ian, Ciilics Uneasy Aloul Russian Conces3
sions in Ains ConlioI DeaI, lasning|cn Pcs|, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, p.
AO8.
128. Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn.
129. Inleiviev Wilh Russian Iedeialion Secuiily CounciI Sec3
ielaiy NikoIai Ialiushev, Moscov, Russia, |ztcs|iqa, in Russian,
Novak.
13O . Slephen Iank, Thieals lo and Iion Russia: An Assess3
nenl, ]curna| cf S|atic Mi|i|arq S|udics, Ioilhconing.
131. David McDonough, The US NucIeai Shifl lo lhe Iacif3
ic, RUS| ]curna|, ApiiI, 2OO6, p. 68.
132. VIadinii Dvoikin, Tnc Russian Dcoa|c cn |nc Ncnprc|if-
cra|icn cf lcapcns cf Mass Dcs|ruc|icn and Dc|itcrq Vcnic|cs, Can3
liidge, MA: eIfei Cenlei foi Science and InleinalionaI Affaiis,
Haivaid Univeisily, No. 4, 2OO4, p. 9.
361
133. }onalhan IoIIack, U.S. Slialegies in Asia: A Revisionisl
Hegenon, yung-Kook Kin and Anlhony }ones, eds., Pcucr and
Sccuri|q in Ncr|ncas| Asia. Snif|ing S|ra|cgics, ouIdei, CO: Lynne
Riennei IulIisheis, 2OO7, pp. 86-87.
134. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in |ng|isn, Oc|cocr 24, 2007,
|8|S SOV, Oclolei 24, 2OO7.
135. eijing, China, Xinnua, in LngIish, Seplenlei 8, 2OO7,
|8|S SOV, Seplenlei 8, 2OO7.
136. Moscov, Russia, |n|crfax, in LngIish, Seplenlei 15, 2OO3,
IIS SOV, Seplenlei 15, 2OO3.
137. Russia 'No Longei Uses NucIeai Sul Deleiienl, Uni|-
cd Prcss |n|crna|icna|, ApiiI 29, 2OO8.
138. Tokyo, }apan, Tc|qc Sninoun Mcrning |di|icn, in }apa3
nese, May 1O, 2O1O, |8|S SOV, May 1O, 2O1O.
139. Open souice Cenlei, OSC Rcpcr|, in LngIish, |8|S SOV9
Seplenlei 7, 2OO7.
14O. Kiislian AlIand, The Inlioduclion, Adoplion, and In3
pIenenlalion of Russias Noilhein Slialegic aslion Concepl,
1992-1999, ]curna| cf S|atic Mi|i|arq S|udics, VoI. X, No. 4, 2OO7,
pp. 499-528, Russia and Noivays Aiclic ChaIIenge, ]ancs |n|c|-
|igcncc Digcs|, May 2O, 2OO8.
141. Dnilii Lilovkin, We Didnl Send Hin Ioi a Slai: A Skif
IIev Iion lhe Noilh IoIe lo Kanin Nos, Moscov, Russia, |z-
tcs|iqa Mcsccu |di|icn in Russian, Seplenlei 13, 2OO6, |8|S SOV9
Seplenlei 13, 2OO6.
142. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish, May 5, 2OO8,
|8|S SOV, May 5, 2OO8, Yuii CaviiIov, Long-Range Avialion
Inhalils Aiclic Skies, Moscov, Russia, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a9 &-
Russian, May 15, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, May 15, 2OO8, Moscov, Rus3
(&09 |RAR-TASS, in LngIish, Maich 2O, 2OO8, |8|S SOV, Maich 2O,
2OO8.
362
143. Lilovkin, We Didnl Send Hin Ioi a Slai: A Skif Iion
lhe Noilh IoIe lo Kanin Nos, Moscov, Russia, Agcn|s|tc Vcqcn-
nq|n Nctcs|cq, ApiiI 9, 2OO8.
144. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish, }uIy 4, 2OO7,
IIS SOV, }uIy 4, 2OO7, Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish,
}uIy 2, 2OO7, |8|S SOV, }uIy 2, 2OO7, Moscov, Russia, Agcn|s|tc
Vcqcnnq|n Nctcs|cq, }uIy 4, 2OO7, |8|S SOV, }uIy 4, 2OO7.
145. Moscov, Russia, |TAR-TASS, in LngIish, Oclolei 23,
2OO7, |8|S SOV, Oclolei 23, 2OO7.
146. Minxin Iei, Chinas Hedged Acquiescence, yung-
Kook Kin and Anlhony }ones, Lds., Pcucr and Sccuri|q in Ncr|n-
cas| Asia. Snif|ing S|ra|cgics, ouIdei, CoIoiado: Lynne Riennei
IulIisheis, 2OO7, p. 115.
147. Lsook Yoon and Dong Hyung Lee, A Viev Iion Asia,
VIadinii Iulins Koiean Oppoilunily: Russian Inleiesls in lhe
Noilh Koiean NucIeai Ciises, Ccnpara|itc S|ra|cgq, VoI. XXIV,
No. 3, 2OO5, p. 188.
148. AIexandei Ignalov, Russia in lhe Asia-Iacihc, Roulen
Azizian, ed., Russia and Ancrica in |nc Asia-Pacijc, HonoIuIu, HI:
Asia-Iacihc Cenlei foi Secuiily Sludies, 2OO7, pp. 9-11.
149. Yoon and Lee, p. 194.
15O. CIenn C. uchan, David Malonic, CaIvin Shiplaugh, and
Richaid Mesic, |u|urc Rc|cs cf U.S. Nuc|car |crccs. |np|ica|icns fcr
U.S. S|ra|cgq, Sanla Monica, CA: Rand Coipoialion, 2OOO, p. 15,
}oseph Ieiguson, U.S.-Russia ReIalions: Availing lhe C-8, Ccn-
para|itc Ccnncc|icns, }une 2OO6.
151. Open Souice Connillee, OSC Ana|qsis: Russia: Ioieign
IoIicy Thinkeis Undaunled ly Rising China, |8|S SOV, Seplen3
lei 6, 2OO7.
152. Laiiy M. WoilzeI, Cninas Nuc|car |crccs. Opcra|icns,
Training, Dcc|rinc, Ccnnand, Ccn|rc|, and Canpaign P|anning, Cai3
IisIe, IA: Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege, 2OO7,
Richaid Spencei, China To Modeinize NucIeai Weapons Capa3
liIily, |cndcn Dai|q Tc|cgrapn, May 9, 2OO8, aohui Zhang, The
363
Taivan Sliail and lhe Iuluie of Chinas No-Iiisl-Use NucIeai
IoIicy, Ccnpara|itc S|ra|cgq, VoI. XXVII, No. 2, Maich-ApiiI,
2OO8, pp. 164-183.
153. WoilzeI, Spencei, Zhang, Lxlensive MissiIe Sile in Chi3
na ReveaIed ly SaleIIile: AnaIysl, Spacc lar, May 15, 2OO8, Lx3
lensive NucIeai MissiIe DepIoynenl Aie a Discoveied in CenliaI
Asia, posled ly Hans Kiislensen, May 15, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.fas.crg/o|cg/ssp/2208//05/cx|cnsitc-nuc|car-dcp|cqncn|-arca-
discctcrcd-in-ccn|ra|-cnina.
154. Iovei Iosluiing~Chinas TaclicaI NucIeai Slance
Cones of Age, ]ancs |n|c||igcncc Rcticu, Augusl 12, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu4.jancs.ccn/suoscrioc/jir/dcc_ticu.jsp?K2DccKcq.
155. Moscov, Russia, infcx.ru, in Russian, }uIy 8, 2O1O, |8|S
SOV, Augusl 23, 2O1O, Iiivale conveisalion vilh Rogei McDei3
noll, Augusl 9, 2O1O.
156. AIeksandi Menshikov, IiolIens of Russian Anlinis3
siIe Defense: Whal Il Can and ShouId Iiolecl Againsl, And Whal
Il ShouId Nol, Moscov, Russia, Vczdusnnc-Kcsnicncs|aqa Ooc-
rcna, in Russian, Augusl 15, 2OO4, |8|S SOV, Augusl 15, 2OO4.
157. WoilzeI, Spencei, Zhang.
158. Tony HaIpin, Iulin Confionls US Wilh Thieal To Ains
Iacl, Tincs On|inc, Oclolei 13, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|inc-
scn|inc.cc.u|/|c|/ncus/ucr|d/curcpc/ar|ic|c2648440.ccc.
159. Denelii SevaslopuIo, NeiI uckIey, DanieI Donley, and
}an Cienski, Russia Thiealens To Quil Ains Tiealy, |inancia|
Tincs, Ieliuaiy 15, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.f|.ccn.
16O. Mailin Sieff, Russia RallIes MissiIe Tiealy, UP|, Maich
2, 2OO6.
161. The ISCII AnaIysl, VoI. XIII, No. 9, Maich 8, 2OO7, os3
lon, MA: Inslilule foi lhe Sludy of Conicl, IdeoIogy, and IoIicy,
oslon Univeisily, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ou.cdu/iscip.
162. Iiess Confeience vilh IoIilicaI AnaIysl AIexei Ailalov
and Vice Iiesidenl of lhe Acadeny of CeopoIilicaI IiolIens Leo3
364
nid Ivashov on Russian Ioieign IoIicy, R|A Nctcs|i, Ieliuaiy 6,
2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.fcdncus.ru, AIexei Ailalov, An Unnec3
essaiy and Dangeious Slep, Nczatisincqc Vcqcnncqc Ooczrcniqc9
No. 7, Maich, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.ancrica-russia.nc|/cng/sc-
curi|q/143683092.
163. |n|crfax, Ieliuaiy 27, 2OO6.
164. NikoIai Sokov, Second Thoughls Aloul a Iiisl Sliike,
Ncnprc|ifcra|icn Rcticu, VoI. XIV, No. 1, Maich, 2OO7, p. 141.
165. Keilh C. Snilh, Russian |ncrgq Pc|i|ics in |nc 8a||ics, Pc-
|and, and |nc U|rainc. A Ncu S|ca||n |npcria|isn? Washinglon, DC:
Cenlei foi Slialegic and InleinalionaI Sludies, 2OO4, p. 13.
166. Moscov, Russia, Agcn|s|tc Vcqcnnq|n Nctcs|cq |n|crnc|
Vcrsicn, Maich 21, 2OO5, |8|S SOV, Maich 21, 2OO5.
167. |8|S SOV, Novenlei 17, 2OO6.
168. Lilovkin, We Didnl Send Hin Ioi a Slai: A Skif IIev
Iion lhe Noilh IoIe lo Kanin Nos.
169. Sleve Culleinan, Russia CouId Use Iieenplive NucIe3
ai Sliikes, Assccia|cd Prcss, }anuaiy 21, 2OO8.
17O. |oid.
171. |oid.
172. WoilzeI, Spencei, Zhang, pp. 164-183.
173. Lugene Myasnikov, Russian Ieiceplions and Iiospecls
foi NucIeai Weapons Reduclions in Noilheasl Asia, |ncsap 8u|-
|c|in, No. 24, 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.incsap.crg/ou||c|in24/ar|05.
n|n.
174. }anes CIay MoIlz and AIexandie Y. Mansouiov, eds., Tnc
Ncr|n Kcrcan Nuc|car Prcgran. Sccuri|q, S|ra|cgq and Ncu Pcrspcc-
|itcs frcn Russia, Nev Yoik, NY: RoulIedge, 2OOO.
365
6L4:=82 c
23!!-45 =46=-647 5367842 984:;5!<
632285= :;7-6-8! 45? @3=328 =285?!
2'(B$#+ 9%'"V
Iion Moscovs peispeclive, nucIeai veapons,
incIuding laclicaI nucIeai veapons (TNWs), seive a
vaiiely of vaIualIe and oflen unique secuiily func3
lions lhal Russian poIicynakeis viII nol soon suiien3
dei. Iiisl, lhey delei olhei counliies fion Iaunching
a nucIeai sliike againsl Russia. Second, having such
an enoinous nucIeai aisenaI loIsleis Moscovs inlei3
nalionaI slalus. Thiid, Russias nucIeai veapons heIp
conpensale foi veaknesses in Russian convenlionaI
foices in lvo vays~foi deleiienl puiposes (ly deny3
ing adveisaiies lhe piesunplion lhal lhey can guai3
anlee lhal any conicl vilh Russia viII ienain con3
venlionaI) and, undei ceilain condilions, foi acluaI
lallIeheId opeialions, ly deslioying inpoilanl laigels
noie effecliveIy lhan convenlionaI veapons.
Iouilh, Russian nucIeai veapons can achieve lolh
iesuIls al a Iovei hnanciaI cosl lhan Moscov vouId
incui ly acquiiing and suslaining a convenlionaI foice
equivaIenl in slienglh lo lhal of lhe Uniled Slales (if
lhis veie even possilIe, nolvilhslanding lhe najoi
veaknesses in Russias niIilaiy-indusliiaI lase). Iiflh,
Russias iesponse lo lhe Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiga3
nizalions (NATO) expanding laIIislic nissiIe defense
piogian has leen lo slienglhen ils offensive nucIeai
foices so as lo oveivheIn any defense syslen. Rus3
sias Iaige nunlei of TNWs vouId aInosl guaianlee
lhal al Ieasl sone nucIeai sliikes, especiaIIy againsl
fionlIine foices, vouId evade eneny defenses.
366
Sixlh, Russian poIicynakeis can issue nucIeai
lhieals lo liy lo inuence lhe foieign and defense
poIicies of olhei counliies. In iecenl yeais, Russian
poIilicaI and niIilaiy Ieadeis have soughl lo discoui3
age foinei Soviel lIoc slales fion joining NATO oi
hosling U.S. laIIislic nissiIe syslens on lheii leiii3
loiy ly vaining lhal such aclions vouId nake lhen
Iegilinale laigels foi Russian nucIeai sliikes. IinaIIy,
TNWs iepiesenl one of lhe fev defense dinensions
in vhich Moscov has a cIeai advanlage ovei NATO
niIilaiies. This supeiioiily enhances Russias lai3
gaining posilion in ceilain ains conlioI negolialions.
Civen lhe nany lenehls lhal lhe Russian Coveinnenl
deiives specihcaIIy fion ils TNWs, Russian ofhciaIs
vouId IikeIy iequiie najoi NATO concessions lo ie3
Iinquish, ieduce, oi olheivise iesliicl lhen.
@;268!
Theie is no agieed dehnilion of vhal conslilules a
laclicaI nucIeai veapon. Teins such as nonsliale3
gic, sulslialegic, shoil-iange, lallIeheId, and
lhealei nucIeai veapons aie aIso used. The yieId
of lhe veapons expIosive povei nay no Iongei le a
good indicaloi, nov lhal nany counliies aie deveI3
oping Iov-yieId nucIeai veapons. Range is lheiefoie
noie oflen used as a cIassifying calegoiy, lul nany
nucIeai vaiheads can sinpIy le noved fion a shoil-
iange Iaunchei lo a Iongei-iange one. Yel, ieIying on
nonphysicaI piopeilies~such as lhe veapons in3
lended use~is difhcuIl vhen sone counliies, such as
Russia, inlend lo use TNW foi lolh laclicaI lallIeheId
puiposes and slialegic ones. IundanenlaIIy, lhese
(5(.#8( 0+# ."/(# -276#0+ '#0*/-( -/. ,#*6/5#, /-
slialegic nucIeai deIiveiy vehicIes such as Iand-
367
lased InleiconlinenlaI aIIislic MissiIes (ICMs),
sulnaiine-Iaunched laIIislic nissiIes (SLMs), and
Iong-iange heavy lonleis.
AII lhiee syslens aie capalIe of allacking laigels
al gieal dislances (al Ieasl 5,5OO kiIoneleis |knj,
and oflen lvice as fai). The 1987 Inleinediale-Range
NucIeai Ioices (INI) Tiealy piohilils Russia and lhe
Uniled Slales fion deveIoping, nanufacluiing, oi
depIoying giound-Iaunched laIIislic and ciuise nis3
siIes vilh ianges of 5OO-5,5OO kn. The lvo counliies
sliII ielain nany nucIeai veapons vilh ianges undei
5OO kn. These shoilei-iange laclicaI syslens can le
Iaunched ly shoil-iange nissiIes, diopped fion lhe
aii as giavily lonls, Ioaded onlo loipedoes oi olhei
laclicaI navaI veapons, oi olheivise deIiveied ly
nonslialegic syslens (lhough neilhei counliy appeais
lo have lhe falIed nucIeai hand gienade). Anolhei
possilIe ciileiion foi idenlifying a laclicaI nucIeai
'#0*/-9 &.( (8066 5&#6,9 /11#+( 0 6#(( "#6*126 &-,&70./+
since lhe conslanlIy inpioving accuiacy of slialegic
,#6&%#+5 %#"&76#( "0( 8#0-. ."0. ."#&+ '0+"#0,( 70-
aIso have Iov yieIds lul sliII deslioy lheii dislanl lai3
gels.
No liIaleiaI liealy Iinils lhe nunlei of shoil-iange
nucIeai veapons in lhe Aneiican and Russian aise3
naIs. The nosl inpoilanl neasuie consliaining lhese
veapons occuiied in 1991. Thal faII, U.S. Iiesidenl
Ceoige H. W. ush lecane aIained lhal lhe ongoing
disinlegialion of lhe Soviel Union, vhich had leen ac3
ceIeialed ly lhe faiIed Augusl 1991 coup ly connu3
nisl haidIineis, vas endangeiing Moscovs conlioI
ovei lhousands of Soviel nucIeai vaiheads. Theie3
foie, in Iale Seplenlei, ush announced najoi ieduc3
lions in lhe nunlei of depIoyed Aneiican TNWs,
incIuding lhe eIininalion of aII U.S. giound-Iaunched
(5(.#8( 0-, ."# +#8/%06 /1 066 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 1+/8
368
U.S. suiface ships and allack sulnaiines, and inviled
Soviel Iiesidenl MikhaiI Coilachev lo iecipiocale.
Coilachev nade a siniIai announcenenl on Oclolei
5, pIedging lo eIininale nany TNWs and liansfei olh3
#+( 1+/8 ,#*6/58#-. '&." /*#+0.&/-06 2-&.( ./ 7#-.+06
sloiage faciIilies. The foIIoving }anuaiy, oiis YeIlsin,
Iiesidenl of lhe nev Russian Iedeialion, connilled
his goveinnenl lo inpIenenl Coilachevs oiiginaI
offei, as veII as sone olhei ieduclions lhal YeIlsin
sulsequenlIy added.
1

AIlhough lhese 1991-92 IiesidenliaI NucIeai Ini3
lialives (INI) consisled onIy of paiaIIeI and iecipio3
706 8#0(2+#(9 ."#5 "0%# #6&8&-0.#, 8/+# -276#0+
veapons lhan any ains conlioI liealy. Undei lheii
leins, Russia and lhe Uniled Slales have deslioyed
lhousands of lheii nonslialegic nucIeai veapons and
ienoved olhei nonslialegic nucIeai syslens fion op3
eialionaI depIoynenl, liansfeiiing lheii vaiheads lo
secuie sloiage. Yel, lhe INIs aie nol a foinaI ains
conlioI agieenenl, and lhey do nol enlaiI piovisions
lo veiify conpIiance. Neilhei Russia noi lhe Uniled
Slales has aIIoved nonilois fion lhe olhei counliy
lo conducl lechnicaI inspeclions al ils TNW sloiage
siles. The lvo goveinnenls aIso do nol exchange dala
aloul lheii ienaining nonslialegic veapons, lhough
al sone NATO-Russia neelings, lhey have sinpIy
iepoiled lhe peicenlage of INI-appIicalIe vaiheads,
lul nol lheii alsoIule nunleis, lhal lhey have eIini3
naled.
2

In 2OO5 and 2OO6, hovevei, Aneiican ofhciaIs con3
pIained lhal lhe Russian Coveinnenl vas nol piovid3
ing sufhcienl infoinalion lo sulslanliale ils cIains lo
have nade fuilhei ieduclions in ils nonslialegic nu3
cIeai syslens.
3
Sone nuIliIaleiaI nucIeai ains conlioI
agieenenls do covei TNW, lul lheii piovisions aie
369
aIso nol veII enfoiced. The NucIeai Non-IioIifeialion
Tiealy (NIT) anlicipales lhe evenluaI eIininalion of
aII nucIeai veapons. IioposaIs lo ieduce and lellei
conlioI Russian and Aneiican nonslialegic veapons
ieguIaiIy aiise al NIT-ieIaled neelings. Ioi exanpIe,
seveiaI deIegales lo lhe May 2O1O NIT Reviev Con3
feience advocaled naking giealei effoils lo eIininale
nonslialegic veapons iegaidIess of lheii iange. Yel,
nucIeai aloIilion is seen ly lhe Russian and Aneii3
can Coveinnenls as a Iong-lein goaI~lhe hoiizon
appeais lo le Iongei in Moscov~iequiiing sliingenl
condilions. Olhei ains conlioI agieenenls~such as
lhose eslalIishing nucIeai-fiee zones oi iequiiing lhal
nucIeai veapons slales guaianlee nevei lo use lheii
nucIeai veapons againsl slales nol possessing lhen~
iesliicl lhe IegaIIy peinissilIe use of nucIeai veap3
ons, lul lhey Iack neans lo ensuie conpIiance.
The nunlei, slalus, and olhei chaiacleiislics of
lhe nonslialegic nucIeai veapons slockpiIes of Rus3
sia and lhe Uniled Slales aie slale seciels. Infoinalion
aloul lhe possilIe nonslialegic nucIeai veapons of
olhei counliies is aIso nininaI, lhough aII lhe nucIeai
veapons of India, Iakislan, and Noilh Koiea appeai
lo have ianges leIov 5,5OO kn. AIlhough China ap3
peais lo have sone 2O inleiconlinenlaI-iange laIIislic
nissiIes capalIe of ieaching laigels in Noilh Aneiica,
lhe Chinese niIilaiy has hundieds of nonslialegic
nucIeai veapons designed foi polenliaI use aiound
Chinas peiipheiy as veII as possilIy on Chinese lei3
iiloiy againsl an invading Iand ainy (a veiy unIikeIy
conlingency al piesenl).
AIlhough lhe Uniled Slales had lhousands of non3
slialegic nucIeai syslens duiing lhe CoId Wai, ana3
Iysls leIieve lhal lhe U.S. niIilaiy nov has onIy sone
5OO shoil-iange nucIeai veapons in ils opeialionaI
37O
aisenaI, as veII as appioxinaleIy an equaI nunlei in
lhe U.S. inaclive slockpiIe. These TNWs consisl of 61-
3 and 61-4 nucIeai giavily lonls foi aiipIanes (sone
al U.S. aii lases in Luiope) and nucIeai-ained sulna3
iine-Iaunched Tonahavk Iand-allack ciuise nissiIes
(TLAM-N) depIoyed al secuie Iand faciIilies in lhe
Uniled Slales.
4
The Olana adninislialions Nuc|car
Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr|, pulIished in ApiiI 2O1O, decid3
ed lo ieliie lhe TLAM-N aflei lhe }apanese Covein3
nenl indicaled lhal Tokyo no Iongei sav lhal pailicu3
Iai veapon syslen~as opposed lo olhei U.S. nucIeai
and convenlionaI foices~as essenliaI foi nainlaining
lhe ciediliIily of U.S. exlended deleiience guaianlees
foi }apan.
5
The U.S. Ained Ioices have leen dianalicaIIy ie3
ducing lheii hoIdings of TNWs lecause lhe advenl of
piecision-guided convenlionaI nunilions has ieduced
lhe nunlei of nissions lhal nighl iequiie nucIeai
vaiheads. In addilion, an inpoilanl ioIe foi TNWs~
defending NATO aIIies in Luiope fion lhe Iaige
convenlionaI niIilaiies of lhe Soviel lIoc~vanished
vilh lhe end of lhe CoId Wai. Iuilheinoie, nany
U.S. connandeis and civiIian slialegisls doull lhal
lhe Aneiican Iiesidenl oi olhei senioi civiIian and
niIilaiy Ieadeis vouId aulhoiize lhe use of a nucIeai
veapon excepl undei lhe nosl exliene ciicunslances.
The U.S. niIilaiy has piefeiied lo iediiecl nonelaiy
and olhei iesouices lo ieseaiching and deveIoping
convenlionaI veapons vhose use is noie IikeIy. Al
piesenl, lhe nain facloi suslaining lhe U.S. TNWs is
lo neel NATOs foinaI iequiienenls foi such veap3
ons, nake U.S. exlended nucIeai deleiience guaian3
lees appeai noie ciedilIe lo counliies lhal nighl olh3
#+'&(# ,#7&,# ./ *2+(2# ."#&+ /'- -276#0+ '#0*/-(9
and have sone nonslialegic assels lo liade avay in
any TNW negolialions vilh Moscov.
371
The Soviel and Russian Ained Ioices have aIso
decieased lheii TNWs since lhe nid-198Os. The INI
Tiealy iequiied lhe Soviel Union lo eIininale seveiaI
inpoilanl nediun-iange nissiIe syslens, vhiIe lhe
INI Ied lo lhe desliuclion of nany shoilei-iange sys3
lens. Duiing lhe eaiIy 199Os, lhe vilhdiavaI of lhe
Russian Ainy fion cenliaI Luiope and lhe Russian
Navy fion conlal palioIs aIso decieased Russian
niIilaiy inleiesl in nonslialegic nucIeai veapons. The
seveie piolIens expeiienced ly lhe Russian defense
indusliy duiing lhis peiiod aIso Ied lhe Russian Cov3
einnenl lo concenliale Russias Iiniled pioduclion
iesouices on highei-piioiily veapons, such as slia3
legic deIiveiy syslens and najoi convenlionaI veap3
ons syslens, lhough fev of eilhei vas pioduced. ul
lovaid lhe end of lhe decade, Moscovs inleiesl in
slienglhening Russias nucIeai foices, incIuding lhose
having shoil ianges, incieased. Russian poIicynakeis
decided lo ielain nany nonslialegic nucIeai veapons
lecause lhey peiceived lhen as a vilaI insliunenl
foi pievenling NATO, vhich vas lhen expanding ils
nenleiship and engaging Iaige and unpiecedenled
niIilaiy opeialions in lhe foinei YugosIavia, fion ex3
pIoiling ils convenlionaI niIilaiy supeiioiily in a pos3
silIe vai vilh Russia.
Lven loday, lhe Russian defense indusliy hnds il
inpossilIe lo nanufacluie lhe Iaige nunlei of so3
phislicaled piecision convenlionaI veapons Iike lhose
pioduced ly seveiaI NATO counliies.
6
The Minisliy
of Defense has aIso pioved unalIe lo liansilion lhe
Russian niIilaiy lo an enliieIy piofessionaI foice of
Iong-lein conliacl soIdieis. Inslead, il has had lo keep
using Iaige nunleis of unnolivaled, pooiIy liained,
lul Iov-cosl shoil-lein Russian consciipls.
7
To nake
up foi lhe veaknesses of Russias convenlionaI foices,
372
lhe Russian niIilaiy has conlinued lo depIoy hun3
dieds of nucIeai vaiheads on shoil-iange laclicaI
suiface-lo-suiface and aii-lo-giound sliike nissiIes
as veII as syslens designed foi anli-aii and anli-ship
defense. The giealei desliuclive povei of lheii nu3
cIeai vaiheads conpensales foi lhe highei laigeling
inaccuiacies and Iovei piepaiedness of Russian niIi3
laiy foices conpaied vilh lheii NATO counleipails.
Sone Russian niIilaiy Ieadeis aIso seen lo viev Rus3
sias TNWs as heIping Russian lioops conpensale foi
Chinas nuch Iaigei giound foices in lhe evenl of a
Russia-China vai~lhough lhis peispeclive is iaieIy
discussed in pulIic given lhe ofhciaI Iine.
8
Since il
couId lake decades foi Russias defense indusliiaI and
niIilaiy iefoin piogians lo achieve success, lhe Rus3
sian niIilaiy viII IikeIy leIieve il viII need lo ieIy on
nucIeai veapons, incIuding TNWs, foi yeais lo cone.
AIlhough secuiily lensions lelveen Russia and
lhe Uniled Slales and ils NATO aIIies have Iessened
fion lhe line of lioulIes in lhe yeais lelveen 2OO7
and 2OO9, Russian Ieadeis sliII considei nucIeai veap3
ons~laclicaI as veII as slialegic~an essenliaI looI in
lheii foieign and defense poIicy poilfoIio. Despile lhe
iecenl enphasis on hov Russias oiI and gas have ie3
pIaced lhe Ainy and Navy as Russias lvo nosl in3
uenliaI slialegic looIs, lhe nosl inpoilanl facl aloul
Russia is lhal, aIong vilh lhe Uniled Slales, il pos3
sesses one of lhe voiIds lvo nosl poveifuI nucIeai
aisenaIs, vilh sizealIe offensive nucIeai foices in aII
calegoiies of lhe liadilionaI liiad of slialegic nucIeai
deIiveiy vehicIes~ICMs, SLMs, and Iong-iange
slialegic lonleis. Russia aIso possesses fai noie
TNWs lhan any olhei counliy.
Duiing a Duna heaiing on ialifying lhe Nev
Slialegic Ains Tiealy (START) in }uIy 2O1O, Russian
373
nucIeai expeil AIexei Ailalov conhined lhal Russia
had a Ieasl 1O,OOO nucIeai vaiheads in ils cuiienl aise3
naI vhen one incIudes ils Iaige TNW hoIding.
9
B."#+
Russian souices aIso conhin lhal lhe Russian Ained
Ioices possess lhousands of TNWs.
10
In lheii Ialesl an3
nuaI suivey of Russian nucIeai foices, Roleil S. Noi3
iis and Hans M. Kiislensen caIcuIale lhal, in Iale 2OO9,
lhe Russian niIilaiy possessed a lolaI of appioxinale3
Iy 12,OOO nucIeai vaiheads. Sone 4,6OO nucIeai vai3
heads veie in Russias opeialionaI aisenaI (i.e., ieady
foi iapid use), of vhich appioxinaleIy 2,6OO veie
depIoyed on slialegic nucIeai deIiveiy vehicIes and
sone 2,OOO veie nonslialegic oi TNWs. They con3
cIude lhal ioughIy 7,3OO nucIeai vaiheads veie in a
ieseive slalus oi availing disnanlIenenl.
11
In leins of
nonslialegic vaiheads (i.e., lhose nol designed foi use
on lhe liiad of slialegic deIiveiy vehicIes), Noiiis and
Kiislensen assess lhal Russia has sone 5,39O TNWs.
These consisl of 2,OOO TNWs (AS-4 aii-lo-suiface nis3
siIes and a vaiiely of giavily lonls) foi use ly laclicaI
aiiciafl, 1,12O laclicaI vaiheads foi aii defense, and
2,27O nucIeai vaiheads foi use ly Russian vaiships.
They aIso eslinale lhal lhe Russian Ainy has an inde3
leininale nunlei of TNWs lhal nighl sliII le usalIe
foi giound opeialions.
12
The Russian Navy is especiaIIy pione lo viev
TNW on Russian suiface ships and sulnaiines as
0- &8*/+.0-. /*#+0.&/-06 '#0*/- ./ 7/8*#-(0.# 1/+
lhe polenliaIIy supeiioi nunleis and capaliIilies of
Russias naiiline adveisaiies, alove aII, lhal of lhe
U.S. Navy. Ioi exanpIe, in 2OO9, Vice-AdniiaI OIeg
uilsev, Depuly Chief of lhe Russian Navy CeneiaI
Slaff, cIained lhal lhe Navy vas naking such piog3
iess in exlending lhe iange and accuiacy of ils TNWs
lhal: They do nol need lo deIivei high-yieId vai3
374
heads, inslead il is possilIe lo nake a liansilion lo
Iov-yieId nucIeai vaiheads lhal couId le inslaIIed
on lhe exisling lypes of ciuise nissiIes.
13
uilsev aIso
inpIied lhal Russias nev nucIeai-povei allack sul3
80+&-#(9 (27" 0( ."# Sctcrcdtins|3760(( ("&*(9 '/26,
piolalIy conlinue lo caiiy TNW. Noiiis and Kiis3
lensen caIcuIale lhal lhe Russian Navy nainlains
2,27O opeialionaI nonslialegic nucIeai vaiheads, pii3
naiiIy foi use on vaiious lypes of shoil-iange ciuise
nissiIes. These incIude neaiIy 7OO vaiheads foi navaI
ciuise nissiIes, anli-sulnaiine veapons, anli-aii nis3
siIes, oi anli-ship loipedoes.
14
These TNWs aie sloied
on Iand al vaiious Russian navaI lases. Russian cievs
ieguIaiIy ieheaise Ioading lhese vaiheads on deIiv3
eiy syslens and Iaunching lhen.
15
?;6=2-58
On Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, lhe nev Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf
|nc Russian |cdcra|icn vas hnaIIy pulIished on lhe
KienIin velsile. Despile aII lhe deveIopnenls of lhe
pasl decade, incIuding lhe vais in Afghanislan, Iiaq,
and Ceoigia, lhis Ialesl veision geneiaIIy advocaled
."# (08# */6&7&#( 0( ."# *+#%&/2( Mi|i|arq Dcc|rin# 0,3
opled in 2OOO. NolalIy, lhe nev diafl expiesses pai3
licuIai dissalisfaclion vilh NATO, conpIaining aloul
lhe giovlh of lhe aIIiances niIilaiy infiasliucluie
cIose lo Russias loidei as veII as ils aIIeged effoils lo
acquiie gIolaI funclions in conliavenlion of inleina3
lionaI Iav.
16
The cuiienl diafl idenlihes foui lypes of
niIilaiy conicls:
- snaII-scaIe ained conicls,
- IocaI vais such as lhal lelveen Russia and
Ceoigia in 2OO8,
- iegionaI vais lhal can polenliaIIy invoIve nany
counliies,
375
- Iaige-scaIe conicls such as WoiId Wais I and
II.
AIlhough U.S. defense ofhciaIs liiefed lheii Rus3
sian coIIeagues in advance aloul lhe conlenl of lhe ie3
cenlIy ieIeased U.S. Quadrcnnia| Dcfcnsc Rcticu (QDR),
Russian docliinaI viileis appeai nol lo have laken
lhe olheis decIaialoiy docliine inlo accounl vhen
conposing lhe Russian lexl. Wheieas lhe cuiienl Rus3
(&0- Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc lasicaIIy desciiles U.S. aclions
as lhiealening Russia, lhe QDR chaiacleiizes Russia
as a polenliaI pailnei vilh lhe Uniled Slales againsl
veapons of nass desliuclion (WMD) pioIifeialion,
leiioiisn, and laIIislic nissiIe lhieals. We lhus have
a concepluaI asynneliy in vhich Russian defense
pIanneis aie pieoccupied vilh hypolhelicaI U.S. and
NATO lhieals vhiIe Aneiican slialegisls aie seeking
Moscovs heIp in vinning lhe vai in Afghanislan as
veII as counleiing inleinalionaI leiioiisls, slales, and
pioIifeialion conceins.
The 2O1O Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc afhins lhal:
The Russian Iedeialion ieseives lhe iighl lo use nu3
76#0+ '#0*/-( &- +#(*/-(# ./ ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ 0-,
olhei lypes of veapons of nass desliuclion againsl il
and (oi) ils aIIies, as veII as in iesponse lo Iaige-scaIe
aggiession uliIizing convenlionaI veapons in silu3
alions ciilicaI lo lhe nalionaI secuiily of lhe Russian
Iedeialion.
17

SiniIaiIy, lhe 2O1O Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc afhins Moscovs
+#0,&-#(( ./ #8*6/5 -276#0+ '#0*/-( /-65 &- +#.06&3
alion foi lhe use of nucIeai oi olhei WMD againsl
Russia oi ils aIIies. Il aIso aIIovs Russia lo iniliale lhe
enpIoynenl of nucIeai veapons hisl vhen a conven3
lionaI allack ly an aggiessoi pioves so effeclive lhal
376
il endangeis lhe Russian slale (a piovision nol in lhe
hisl 1993 docliine).
In lolh docunenls, lhe decIaied puipose of Rus3
(&0- -276#0+ '#0*/-( &( ./ ,#.#+ /."#+ 7/2-.+&#( 1+/8
engaging in a niIilaiy conicl vilh Russia. Like lhe
Uniled Slales and lhe olhei decIaied nucIeai veapons
slales, vilh lhe nolalIe exceplion of China, lhe Rus3
(&0- @/%#+-8#-. "0( +#12(#, (&-7# ."# +#6#0(# /1 &.(
Novenlei 1993 Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc lo decIaie in pulIic
ils adheience lo an unquaIihed no nucIeai-hisl-use
posluie.
18
In piincipIe, Russian ofhciaIs aie piepaied
lo slail a nucIeai vai in an eneigency. These decIaia3
./+5 (.0.#8#-.( (.&66 0**#0+ /*#+0.&/-0665 +#6#%0-.9
since Russian niIilaiy foices conlinue lo conducl
Iaige-scaIe exeicises vilh scenaiios invoIving possilIe
nucIeai use~lhough lhese seen lo invoIve Iongei-
iange slialegic syslens ialhei lhan laclicaI nucIeai
veapons.
19

Despile expeclalions lased on eaiIiei slalenenls
ly lhe Russian Coveinnenl, lhe 2O1O docliine does
nol expand lhe iange of peinissilIe uses of nucIeai
'#0*/-( ./ &-762,# *+#%#-.&%# /+ *+##8*.&%# -276#0+
sliikes oi expIicilIy afhin Russias iighl lo enpIoy
nucIeai veapons foi iegionaI and even IocaI vais
againsl leiioiisls. Such an expansive posluie vas of3
feied in seveiaI appaienl liiaI laIIoon slalenenls ly
senioi Russian niIilaiy and secuiily poIicynakeis in
lhe yeais lefoie lhe 2O1O Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc vas pul3
Iished, incIuding CeneiaI Yuii aIuyevsky, head of
lhe Russian CeneiaI Slaff and Iiisl Depuly Defense
Minislei.
20
Likevise, Secuiily CounciI Secielaiy Niko3
Iai Ialiushev nade lhe foIIoving slalenenl lo lhe Rcs-
siqs|aqa Gazc|a conceining lhe diafl of lhe nev Mi|i-
|arq Dcc|rinc lhen undei consideialion: The conducl
of a nucIeai sliike againsl an aggiessoi, incIuding a
377
pieenplive sliike, is nol iuIed oul in ciilicaI silualions
foi nalionaI secuiily.
21
Al lhe sane line lhal Iiesi3
denl Medvedev endoised lhe pulIic Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc9
hovevei, he aIso appioved a cIassihed docunenl:
The Ioundalions of Slale IoIicy in lhe Aiea of NucIe3
ai Deleiience unliI 2O2O, vhich dehned in giealei de3
laiI lhe condilions undei vhich Russia nighl enpIoy
nucIeai veapons. Olseiveis specuIale lhal lhis docu3
8#-. 805 7/-.0&- (/8# /1 ."# 8/+# #)*0-(&%# 60-3
guage aloul lhe use of nucIeai sliikes foi puiposes of
pieenplion, iegionaI conicls, oi olhei puiposes nol
expIicilIy idenlihed in lhe pulIic Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc.
22
Olhei Russian Coveinnenl secuiily docunenls
conhin lhal nainlaining a sliong nucIeai foice and
lhe oplion lo use il has Iong leen~and viII IikeIy ie3
nain~a key eIenenl of Russian secuiily poIicy.
23
!"#
slalenenls of Russian ofhciaIs and defense anaIysls
aIso suppoil lhis decIaialoiy poIicy~Russia nusl ie3
lain and le piepaied lo use nucIeai veapons lo de3
1#-, &.(#61 1+/8 804/+ 7/-%#-.&/-06 0( '#66 0( -276#0+
lhieals. In a }anuaiy 12, 2OO6, ailicIe enlilIed, MiIilaiy
Docliine: Russia Musl e Sliong, pulIished in lhe
Russian Vcdcncs|i nevspapei, lhen Defense Minislei
Seigey Ivanov said Russias hisl lask foi lhe 2OO6-1O
peiiod vas lo suslain and deveIop slialegic deleiienl
foices al lhe nininun IeveI needed lo guaianlee lhal
piesenl and fuluie niIilaiy lhieals aie deleiied.
24
In
Ieliuaiy 2OO7, Ivanov sliessed lo lhe Russian Duna
lhal, veie deleiience lo faiI, lhe Russian niIilaiy vas
piepaied lo use lhese nucIeai foices, olseiving: Whal
eIse veie lhey luiIl foi`
25
Russian Coveinnenl iepiesenlalives openIy ac3
knovIedge lhal lhey lake U.S. nucIeai capaliIilies
inlo accounl vhen sliucluiing lheii ovn foices. As
Ivanov pul il: Moscov is allenliveIy liacking lhe de3
veIopnenls in lhe U.S. slialegic nucIeai foices.
26
In
378
pailicuIai, Russian Coveinnenl iepiesenlalives insisl
lhey viII ielain sufhcienl~if nol necessaiiIy equaI~
nucIeai veapons capacily lo oveicone any U.S. al3
lack. Russian Ieadeis aIso see lheii nucIeai foices as
essenliaI foi deleiiing lhieals ly lhe olhei nucIeai
poveis~incIuding nol onIy NATO aIIies, iilain and
Iiance, lul aIso China, lhough lhe Chinese lhieal is
nevei nenlioned ly nane. When Russias nev Mi|i-
|arq Dcc|rinc vas leing ievised, one of ils nain au3
lhois, Ainy-CeneiaI Makhnul Caieyev, aigued lhal:
!"# -276#0+ '#0*/-( /1 066 804/+ -276#0+ */'#+( 0+#
uIlinaleIy designed lo le used againsl Russia, vhelhei
ve vanl lo adnil il oi nol. In lhis conlexl, lhe lask of
cuiling a polenliaI aggiessoi ly neans of a slialegic
nucIeai deleiienl is leconing noie inpoilanl lhan in
lhe pasl.
27

SiniIaiIy, The Slialegy of NalionaI Secuiily of lhe
Russian Iedeialion lo 2O2O, appioved on May 12,
2OO9, aIso sees a najoi lhieal lo Russias secuiily in
hov lhe olhei counliies ain lo achieve oveivheIning
doninance in lhe niIilaiy spheie lhiough lheii deveI3
opnenl of slialegic nucIeai foices, piecision, infoina3
lion veapons, slialegic veapon syslens vilh non-nu3
cIeai vaiheads, gIolaI anli-nissiIe defense syslens,
and ly niIilaiizing oulei space. Il desciiles nucIeai
veapons as essenliaI foi conpensaling foi any veak3
ness in Russias convenlionaI foices.
28

AIlhough lhe piocess of nodeinizing Russian con3
venlionaI foices vas undeivay al lhe line lhe 2OO9
Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq vas viillen, il vas (and
sliII is) noving al a sIov pace.
29
A/+ ."&( +#0(/-9 '"#-
Iooking al U.S. and NATO supeiioiily in advanced
convenlionaI niIilaiy lechnoIogies, and Chinas po3
lenliaI convenlionaI advanlages in CenliaI and Lasl
379
Asia, Russian Ieadeis see iesoiling lo~oi al Ieasl
lhiealening lo enpIoy~nucIeai veapons as an essen3
liaI equaIizei. In Decenlei 2OO6, Russian Iiesidenl
VIadinii Iulin iepoiledIy loId Ivanov lhal Russias
nucIeai foices accounl foi 9O peicenl of lhe counliys
secuiily.
3O
Accoiding lo Russian nucIeai expeil AIexei
Ailalov: NucIeai veapons aie foi Russian peopIe
nov nuch noie inpoilanl lhan decades ago. . . . They
aie noie inpoilanl lhan duiing lhe CoId Wai lines as
a piIIai of nalionaI secuiily.
31
This assessnenl nakes
sense given lhal duiing lhe CoId Wai peiiod, Moscov
,&(*/(#, /1 80((&%# 7/-%#-.&/-06 8&6&.0+5 */'#+ &-
lhe foin of lolh lhe Soviel Ained Ioices and lhe niIi3
laiy foices of ils caplive Waisav Iacl aIIies.
As in CoId Wai lines, hovevei, Russian Ieadeis
conlinue lo issue nucIeai lhieals lo liy lo inuence lhe
foieign and defense poIicies of olhei counliies. In ie3
cenl yeais, Russian Ieadeis have piocIained lheii in3
lenl lo considei nucIeai sliikes againsl foinei Soviel
lIoc slales lhal join NATO oi eslalIish U.S. laIIislic
nissiIe syslens oi niIilaiy lases on lheii leiiiloiy. In
addilion lo vhalevei Russian secuiily dangeis lhese
Russian nucIeai lhieals liied lo aveil, lhe lhieals aIso
ained lo suppoil Moscovs cIain lhal lhe foinei So3
viel slales faII vilhin Russias speciaI secuiily zone~a
lype of spheie of inuence in vhich Moscov asseiled
lhe iighl lo velo foieign and defense poIicies of lhe
ConnonveaIlh of Independenl Slales (CIS) counliies
lhal Russian Ieadeis nighl peiceive as a chaIIenge lo
Moscovs vilaI nalionaI inleiesls. IoIish Iiine Min3
islei }aiosIav Kaczynski, foi inslance, chaiacleiized
Russian lhieals as an allenpl lo eslalIish lhal his
counliy sliII faIIs vilhin Moscovs zone of conlioI
vhen inleinalionaI secuiily issues aiise: We aie laIk3
ing aloul lhe slalus of IoIand and Russias hopes lhal
38O
IoIand viII once again cone undei ils spheie of inu3
ence.
32

In }anuaiy 2OO8, lhe Ieadeis of Ukiaines nev pio-
Weslein coaIilion goveinnenl~Iiine Minislei YuIia
Tynoshenko, Iiesidenl Vikloi Yushchenko, and
IaiIianenl Chaiinan Aiseny Yalsenyuk~sulnil3
led a joinl Iellei lo NATO Secielaiy CeneiaI }aap de
Hoop Scheffei, decIaiing Ukiaines ieadiness lo ac3
cepl a Menleiship Aclion IIan (MAI) foi NATO.
33

Russian Ieadeis quickIy undeiscoied lheii opposilion
lo Ukiaines leconing yel anolhei NATO nenlei
on Russias loideis. Aflei neeling vilh Yushchenko
al lhe KienIin on Ieliuaiy 12, Iulin vained lhal if
Ukiaine veie lo join NATO and hosl U.S. nissiIe de3
fense siles: Ils hoiiilIe lo say and even hoiiilIe lo
lhink lhal, in iesponse lo lhe depIoynenl of such faciI3
ilies in Ukiainian leiiiloiy, vhich cannol lheoielicaIIy
le iuIed oul, Russia couId laigel ils nissiIe syslens al
Ukiaine.
34

Russian nucIeai lhieals againsl neaily slales shov3
ing an inleiesl in hosling U.S. laIIislic nissiIe defense
(MD) syslens have lecone even noie connon in
iecenl yeais. Slailing in 2OO6, senioi Russian Covein3
nenl ofhciaIs, niIilaiy ofhceis, and poIicy anaIysls
offeied an escaIaling iange of conpIainls iegaid3
ing lhe pIanned depIoynenl of U.S. MD in foinei
Soviel lIoc counliies. They insisled lhal, vhalevei
lheii slaled ain, lhe depIoynenls ieaIIy soughl lo in3
leicepl Russias ovn decieasing ICM aisenaI. They
aIso cIained lhal, despile lhe snaII nunlei of MD
inleiceplois oiiginaIIy inlended foi depIoynenl, lhe
Uniled Slales ained lo eslalIish nany noie nissiIe
defense syslens neai Russia in coning yeais, accon3
panied ly addilionaI niIilaiy faciIilies cIose lo Russia
using lhe pielexl lhal lhey veie needed lo defend lhe
MD syslens.
381
In iesponse, Russian Ieadeis lhiealened lo ielaIiale
vilh nucIeai veapons lo deslioy lhe offending faciIi3
lies. In Seplenlei 2OO6, |n|crfax quoled ieliied Majoi
CeneiaI VIadinii eIous as slaling lhal his counliys
niIilaiy docliine envisages lhal Russian Ained
Ioices aie aIIoved lo allack inslaIIalions in foieign
counliies lhal lhiealen ils secuiily.
35
!"0. (08#
nonlh, lvo Russian sulnaiines~one lased in lhe
Noilh IoIe and lhe olhei in lhe Iacihc Ocean~each
Iaunched a laIIislic nissiIe lovaids lhe Kizha nissiIe
iange in noilhvesl Russia ialhei lhan lhe liadilionaI
Kanchalka lesl iange in lhe Russian Iai Lasl. If lhe
Russian Navy soughl lo allack laigels in IoIand oi
olhei Laslein Luiopean counliies, lhey vouId Iaunch
lhen in lhal diieclion.
36
Anolhei Russian defense
anaIysl, AIexandei Iikayev, acknovIedged lhal Rus3
(&0 7/26, 2(# .07.&706 -276#0+ '#0*/-( ./ #-(2+# ."#
eIininalion of lhiealening MD syslens in Laslein
Luiope.
37
In Oclolei 2OO6, Yevgeny uzhinsky, lhe
"#0, /1 ."# &-.#+-0.&/-06 8&6&.0+5 7//*#+0.&/- ,#*0+.3
nenl of lhe Russian Minisliy of Defense, loId lhe daiIy
|ztcs|ia lhal lhe Russian Coveinnenl vouId considei
NATOs depIoynenl of MD neai Russias loideis as
a ieaI lhieal lo oui deleiienl foices and as an un3
fiiendIy gesluie on lehaIf of lhe Uniled Slales, sone
Laslein Luiopean nalions and NATO as a vhoIe. He
caulioned: Such aclions vouId iequiie laking ad3
#=20.# +#.06&0./+5 8#0(2+#( /1 0 8&6&.0+5 0-, */6&.&706
chaiaclei.
38
As U.S. MD depIoynenl pIans conlinued in lhe
foIIoving yeais, so did Russian lhieals of nucIeai ie3
laIialion. CoIoneI-CeneiaI NikoIai SoIovlsov, lhe con3
nandei of Russias Slialegic MissiIe Ioices, vained
in 2OO8 lhal shouId lhe goveinnenls of IoIand, lhe
Czech RepulIic, oi olhei neighloiing counliies agiee
382
lo hosl U.S. MD faciIilies, Russia vouId have lo lake
appiopiiale aclion. He expIained lhal:
I cannol iuIe oul lhal shouId lhe counliys niIilaiy-
poIilicaI Ieadeiship nake such a decision, sone of oui
ICMs couId le laigeled al nissiIe defense siles in
IoIand and lhe Czech RepulIic, and sulsequenlIy al
olhei such faciIilies.
39

SiniIaiIy, Depuly Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff CoIoneI
CeneiaI AnaloIi Nogovilsyn vained lhal lhe IoIish
decision cannol go unpunished.
40
He added lhal
il vas nov 1OO peicenl ceilain IoIand vouId le a
piioiily laigel of lhe Russian niIilaiy in a fuluie vai
vilh NATO.
41

In his hisl slale of lhe nalion addiess lefoie lolh
houses of lhe Russian paiIianenl, Iiesidenl Dniliy
Medvedev said lhal Russia vouId, if necessaiy,
depIoy shoil-iange Iskandei nissiIe syslens in Ka3
Iiningiad lo neuliaIize if necessaiy lhe anli-laIIislic
nissiIe syslen in Luiope.
42
KaIiningiad, a aIlic Sea
poil vhich Iies lelveen NATO nenleis Lilhuania
and IoIand, hosls a najoi Russian niIilaiy lase. Med3
vedev aIso slaled lhal Russian eIeclionic equipnenl
vouId jan lhe U.S. syslens and lhal he had canceIIed
pIans lo disnanlIe lhiee Russian nissiIe ieginenls de3
pIoyed in veslein Russia. The Iskandei-M suiface-lo-
suiface nissiIe has a decIaied iange of sIighlIy undei
5OO kn (3OO niIes), vhich aIIovs il lo escape lhe pio3
hililion in lhe INI Tiealy. If depIoyed in lhe KaIinin3
giad iegion, lhe nissiIe couId aIIov Russia lo laigel aII
of IoIand and aIso leiiiloiy in easlein Ceinany and
lhe Czech RepulIic.
43
Lach nissiIe can caiiy seveiaI
vaiheads. The Iskandei has leen lesled vilh a con3
venlionaI payIoad lul couId caiiy a nucIeai vaihead,
lhough lhe Russian Coveinnenl has nol indicaled
383
any such inlenl. In }uIy 2O1O, AIeksandi Ioslnikov,
lhe connandei of Russias Ciound Ioices, loId Lkho
Moskvy iadio lhal lhe Russian niIilaiy vas depIoy3
ing lhe Iskandei neai Sl. Ieleisluig. Iion lheie, lhey
couId hil laigels in Lslonia, Lalvia, and IinIand.
44
!=24=8OR 45? =46=-6!
Al a nininun, Russian nucIeai foices ain lo
pievenl lhe Uniled Slales oi any olhei counliy fion
Iaunching a najoi allack againsl Russian leiiiloiy.
This iequiienenl is IikeIy lo peisisl foi al Ieasl lhe
nexl decade. In Iale 2OO6, Iulin loId Russian niIilaiy
Ieadeis lhal lhe counliys deleiienl foices shouId le
alIe lo guaianlee lhe neuliaIizalion of any polenliaI
aggiessoi, no nallei vhal nodein veapons syslens
he possesses.
45
Russian nucIeai pIanneis nosl IikeIy
concenliale lheii pIanning and iesouices on suiviving
a vai vilh lhe Uniled Slales, since such a capaliIily
shouId piovide lhe assels lhal Russia vouId need lo
defeal veakei nucIeai adveisaiies (e.g., iilain, China,
oi Iiance). Russian slialegisls nosl feai an Aneiican
allenpl lo decapilale lhe Russian Ieadeiship lhiough a
suipiise allack invoIving U.S. nucIeai and convenlion3
aI allacks againsl Russias cenliaIized connand-and-
conlioI nelvoiks and againsl ils nucIeai foices vhen
lhey aie on lheii Iovei peaceline aIeil slalus. They
voiiy lhal Aneiican Ieadeis nighl anlicipale ciip3
pIing lhe Russian niIilaiy iesponse ly incapacilaling
Russias poIilicaI and niIilaiy decisionnakeis lefoie
lhey couId oiganize a coheienl ielaIialoiy sliike. Such
a hypolhelicaI allack couId enpIoy SLMs vilh de3
*+#((#, .+04#7./+&#( 1+/8 Tridcn| sulnaiines on palioI
neai Russia, oi sleaIlhy convenlionaI veapons lhal
vouId expIoil veaknesses in Russias eaiIy vaining
384
syslens. U.S. laIIislic nissiIe and aii defense syslens
vouId lhen allenpl lo inleicepl any Russian nucIeai
deIiveiy pIalfoin lhal had suivived an Aneiican hisl
sliike and vas Iaunched in iepiisaI.
46
ShouId deleiience faiI, lhen Russias nucIeai veap3
ons couId peifoin vaiious slialegic vaihghling ioIes.
In leins of danage Iinilalion, a nassive counleifoice
sliike lhal oveicane lhe adveisaiys aclive and pas3
sive defenses nighl le alIe lo seveieIy veaken lhe
laigeled slales aliIily lo ielaIiale. In addilion lo con3
pensaling foi Russian veaknesses in convenlionaI niI3
ilaiy povei, Russian niIilaiy lhinkeis peiceive lheii
nonslialegic veapons as heIping acconpIish nissions
lhal olheivise nighl iequiie lhe use of Russias noie
Iiniled suppIy of effeclive slialegic nucIeai veapons,
vhich al piesenl piinaiiIy Iie in lhe Ialesl-geneialion
ICMs due lo Iagging nodeinizalion of lhe slialegic
aii and Navy deleiienls. Ioi exanpIe, lhey couId le
used lo uphoId Russian secuiily guaianlees offeied
lo sone of lhe foinei Soviel iepulIics lhiough lhe
CoIIeclive Secuiily Tiealy (CST), vhich vas signed
in Tashkenl, Uzlekislan, in 1992 ly lhe nenleis of
lhe CIS.
47
Undei CST AilicIe 4, nenleis pIedge lo
iendei each olhei aII necessaiy assislance, incIuding
niIilaiy assislance in case of exleinaI aggiession. IoI- A/63
Ioving a joinl Russian-eIaiusian niIilaiy exeicise in
}une 2OO6, eIaiusian Iiesidenl AIexandei Lukashen3
ko said lhal he couId nol excIude lhe use of Russias
TNW in his counliys defense.
48
!he CST undeipins
lhe Russian-doninaled CoIIeclive Secuiily Tiealy Oi3
ganizalion (CSTO), vhich incIudes Ainenia, Kazakh3
slan, Kyigyzslan, Tajikislan, and Uzlekislan, as veII
as Russia and eIaius.
Russian slialegisls have Iong consideied using
Iiniled nucIeai sliikes lo aIlei lhe couise of a conven3
385
lionaI conicl lhal Russia iisked Iosing. The }anuaiy
2OOO Na|icna| Sccuri|q Ccnccp|9 1/+ #)08*6#9 &8*6&#,
lhal Russia couId use nonslialegic nucIeai foices lo
iesisl a convenlionaI allack vilhoul engendeiing a
fuII-scaIe nucIeai exchange. Russian slialegisls have
aIso indicaled lhal lhey nighl delonale a Iiniled nun3
lei of nucIeai veapons~peihaps jusl one~lo induce
an adveisaiy lo end (de-escaIale in Russian leini3
noIogy) a convenlionaI niIilaiy conicl vilh Russia.
49

The seIeclive sliike vouId seek lo expIoil lhe inevi3
lalIe shock and ave effecl associaled vilh nucIeai
use lo cause lhe laigeled decisionnakeis lo veigh
lhe iisks of nucIeai devaslalion noie heaviIy. This
slialegy expIoils lhe feai lhal, aflei one nucIeai ex3
*6/(&/-9 ."# *+/(*#7.( /1 12+."#+ ,#./-0.&/-( &-7+#0(#
sulslanliaIIy. Inilialing nucIeai use vouId undeiscoie
lhe seiiousness vilh vhich lhe Russian Coveinnenl
vieved lhe silualion and nighl encouiage lhe olhei
side lo de-escaIale lhe conicl and lo piessuie ils aIIies
inlo naking concessions.
A ieIaled funclion of Russias nucIeai foices vouId
le lo pievenl olhei counliies fion escaIaling a con3
venlionaI conicl lo a nucIeai vai. In such a scenaiio,
Russia couId lhiealen lo ielaIiale dispiopoilionaleIy
("/26, 0- 0,%#+(0+5 #8*6/5 -276#0+ '#0*/-( ./ .+5
lo aIlei a convenlionaI lallIe in ils favoi. Lven aflei
one paily has inilialed a Iiniled nucIeai exchange,
Russian connandeis nighl allenpl lo conlioI fuilhei
inlia-vai escaIalion ly issuing nucIeai lhieals, shov3
ing iesliainl, oi puisuing olhei nucIeai signaIing.
The nosl connonIy discussed conlingency foi a de-
escaIalion nission is a NATO decision lo inleivene
againsl a Russian niIilaiy aIIy (e.g., eIaius) oi on
lehaIf of a nonnenlei counliy (e.g., Ceoigia) in a
conicl vilh Russia. In ils 1993 Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc9 ."#
386
Russian Coveinnenl alandoned ils decIaied pIedge
nol lo enpIoy nucIeai veapons hisl in a conicl, effec3
liveIy eslalIishing a juslihcalion in Russian docliine
foi inilialing nucIeai use.
50
The slalenenl lioughl
lhe decIaied slialegic posluie of Russia inlo Iine vilh
lhal of lhe Uniled Slales, iilain, and Iiance (lul nol
China). These NATO counliies have nevei ienounced
lhe iighl lo iesoil lo nucIeai veapons hisl in an enei3
gency.
AcluaIIy expIoding a nucIeai device in a conicl
vouId piove piolIenalic. On lhe one hand, il couId
leininale lhe conicl in Russias favoi. On lhe olhei,
il couId polenliaIIy Iead lo Iaige-scaIe nucIeai use if
."# /."#+ (&,# 7/-(&,#+#, ."# ,#./-0.&/- 0( 0 *+#62,#
lo addilionaI nucIeai sliikes and sulsequenlIy decid3
ed lo escaIale hisl. Russian ofhciaIs vouId piolalIy
allenpl lo undeiscoie lhe sliikes Iiniled naluie lo
nininize lhe iisks of fuilhei escaIalion. In conducling
a nucIeai sliike foi a de-escaIalion nission, foi in3
slance, Russian connandeis couId seek lo nininize
lheii opponenls civiIian and peihaps even niIilaiy
casuaIlies lo discouiage fuilhei nucIeai use. Ioi ex3
08*6#9 ."#5 7/26, #8*6/5 0 6/'35&#6, .07.&706 -276#0+
vaihead againsl an adveisaiys niIilaiy lase, vaiship,
oi ainoied foinalion opeialing in a scaiceIy popu3
Ialed aiea. AIleinaleIy, Russian foices couId delonale
a high-aIlilude luisl neai an adveisaiys vaiships
'&." ."# #)*#7.0.&/- ."0. ."# #)*6/(&/- '/26, -/.
pioduce casuaIlies oi nucIeai faIIoul, lul vouId sliII
devaslale lhe eels sensois and connunicalions due
lo ils eIeclionagnelic puIse (LMI) and olhei effecls.
Since Russias slialegic nucIeai foices aie needed lo
delei adveisaiies fion iesoiling lo najoi nucIeai vai,
delonaling a TNW nighl piovide lhe oplinaI laIance
387
lelveen signaIing Moscovs seiiousness and avoid3
ing an aclion lhal nighl piovoke noie escaIalion lhan
lhe Russian Coveinnenl is acluaIIy seeking.
51
Russias nucIeai veapons aIso pIay an inpoilanl
ioIe in ensuiing Moscovs slalus as a signihcanl gIol3
aI pIayei. Duiing lhe 199Os, Russian slialegisls vigoi3
ousIy delaled lhe inpoilance of nainlaining a iolusl
nucIeai deleiienl.
52
A ninoiily aigued lhal, in lhe
posl-CoId Wai voiId, nucIeai veapons had Iosl nuch
of lheii niIilaiy uliIily, and hence Russia shouId con3
cenliale on deveIoping ils convenlionaI foices. The
najoiily, hovevei, conlinued lo viev Russias nucIe3
ai aisenaI as an essenliaI insliunenl foi pieseiving
ils slalus as a gieal povei, especiaIIy since lhe olhei
-276#0+ */'#+( ("/'#, 6&..6# &-76&-0.&/- ./ +#6&-=2&("
lheii ovn aisenaIs.
The 1968 NIT foinaIIy designales Russia as one of
lhe hve counliies IegaIIy peinilled lo possess nucIeai
veapons foi an indehnile liansilion peiiod Ieading lo
gIolaI nucIeai disainanenl. The Iong-slanding slia3
legic nucIeai ains conlioI negolialions lelveen Mos3
cov and Washinglon heIp conhin Russias equaIily
vilh lhe Uniled Slales in an inpoilanl secuiily di3
nension. When asked vhy Russia deseived lo le in
lhe C-8, Russian Iiesidenl VIadinii Iulin loId a }anu3
aiy 31, 2OO6, piess confeience lhal:
lhe C-8 is a cIul vhich addiesses gIolaI piolIens and,
hisl and foienosl, secuiily piolIens. Can soneone
in lhis haII inagine iesoIving, shaII ve say, piolIens
conceining gIolaI nucIeai secuiily vilhoul lhe pailici3
palion of lhe Iaigesl nucIeai povei in lhe voiId, lhe
Russian Iedeialion` Of couise nol.
53
388
Lalei lhal yeai, Iulin loId Ieading defense secloi nan3
ageis lhal: The ieIialiIily of oui 'nucIeai shieId and
."# (.0.# /1 /2+ -276#0+ '#0*/-( 7/8*6#) 0+# 0 7+27&06
conponenl of Russias voiId povei slalus.
54
In addilion lo lhe liadilionaI funclion of deleiiing
a nucIeai sliike againsl lhe Russian Iedeialion as veII
as secuiing Russias eIile gIolaI secuiily slalus, nany
Russians see lheii nucIeai foices as a vay lo negale
NATOs advanlage in convenlionaI foices. The deci3
sive Weslein vicloiies in Iiaq, Kosovo, and Afghani3
slan veie due lo lhe piecision convenlionaI sliike ca3
paliIilies lhe Uniled Slales and ceilain olhei NATO
niIilaiies had acquiied in iecenl decades. AIlhough
Russian anaIysls iecognized lhal lhese nev conven3
lionaI capaliIilies fuilhei decieased NATOs need lo
#8*6/5 -276#0+ '#0*/-( &- 0- /*#+0.&/-06 +/6#9 ."#5
diev lhe Iesson lhal Russia needed, if anylhing, lo in3
ciease ils ieIiance on having a sliong nucIeai aisenaI
lo laIance lhe convenlionaI veaknesses of lhe posl-
Soviel Russian Ainy. Moieovei, lhey olseived lhal
upgiading Russias convenlionaI foices lo Aneiican
slandaids, even if lechnicaIIy possilIe (a dulious as3
sunplion given lhe fiaiIlies of Russias niIilaiy-in3
dusliiaI conpIex) vouId enlaiI consideialIy giealei
expendiluies lhan nainlaining even a Iaige nucIeai
foice.
In ApiiI 2OO6, CeneiaI aIuyevsky loId a piess con3
feience:
Slialegic paiily in a sense of an equaI nunlei of nis3
siIes, aiiciafl, and ships~lhis neaning is going and
has aIieady gone inlo non-exislence. We aie nol going
lo lighlen oui leIls oi lake off oui Iasl paii of liouseis
lo achieve paiily in lhe nunlei of aiiciafl and nissiIes
vilh lhe Uniled Slales oi aII of NATO. . . . |Russiaj
has and viII have nucIeai deleiienl foices sufhcienl
389
lo liing lo ieason anyone vho couId liy lo lesl lhe
slienglh of oui loideis oi lap oui naluiaI iesouices.
55

In his May 2OO6 addiess lo lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy, Iu3
lin Iikevise sliessed lhal Russia couId nol affoid lo
vage a quanlilalive ains iace vilh lhe Uniled Slales,
lul inslead had lo ieIy on Iess coslIy, asynneliic
neans in designing Russias slialegic deleiienl.
56

Yel, Russian Ieadeis aie caughl in a vicious ciicIe.
!"#5 "#(&.0.# ./ ("&1. 12-,( 0'05 1+/8 ."#&+ -276#0+
aisenaI al a line vhen Russias convenlionaI foices
Iack sufhcienl slienglh lo counlei a NATO conven3
lionaI niIilaiy offensive. ul ly iefusing lo liansfei
sulslanliaI hnanciaI oi olhei iesouices lo lhe counliys
convenlionaI foices, Russian decisionnakeis cannol
'#0- ."#8(#6%#( 0'05 1+/8 ."#&+ ,#*#-,#-7# /- -23
cIeai deleiience. y sone eslinales, up lo 4O peicenl
of lhe Minisliy of Defenses annuaI ludgel has leen
devoled lo deveIoping lhe fundanenlaIIy lioulIed
uIava SLM, aiound vhich Russias nexl geneialion
of slialegic sulnaiines have leen designed.
57
Russian
foice pIanneis couId iesoIve lhis spending diIenna if
lhey alandoned lhe need lo defend againsl inpIau3
silIe lhieals such as an Aneiican nucIeai allack oi a
NATO convenlionaI invasion, and inslead focused on
nanaging snaII-scaIe vais, insuigencies, and leiioi3
isl lhieals vilhin Russia and neighloiing slales.
Adopling a nev foice-sizing slandaid, hovevei,
vouId iequiie a lop-IeveI decision ly lhe Russian
Ieadeiship lhal lhe Wesl no Iongei piesenled a noilaI
lhieal, vhich lhe Russian Ieadeiship has consislenlIy
iefused lo do.
58
UnliI nov, lhey have neieIy added lhe
nev chaIIenge of iesisling insuigenls and leiioiisls lo
lhe liadilionaI iequiienenl of deleiiing and defealing
39O
a U.S.-NATO allack. In his May 2OO6 addiess, Iulin
hinseIf ieafhined lhe anlilious foice pIanning goaI
lhal Russias Ained Ioices nusl le alIe lo sinuIla3
neousIy hghl in gIolaI, iegionaI and~if necessaiy~
aIso in seveiaI IocaI conicls.
59
OnIy a Iaige conven3
lionaI niIilaiy lackslopped ly slialegic and laclicaI
nucIeai veapons can neel such denanding ciileiia.
=59 42Q! 6;5=2;7
Many Weslein ains conlioI advocales favoi eIini- 10%/+ #6&8&3
naling TNW lecause lheii snaII size, scalleied Ioca3
lion, ieIalive noliIily, and veakei secuiily and safely
fealuies (lhe oIdei Russian syslens aie lhoughl lo Iack
advanced eIeclionic Iocks) iendei lhen noie al iisk
foi leiioiisl seizuie lhan lhe nucIeai vaiheads lhal aie
depIoyed on slialegic nucIeai deIiveiy vehicIes, vhich
aie geneiaIIy sone of lhe nosl veII-guaided niIilaiy
assels in lhe Russian and Aneiican defense connuni3
lies.
6O
These ains conlioI speciaIisls aIso feai lhal Rus3
sia and lhe Uniled Slales aie noie IikeIy lo enpIoy a
TNW lhan a slialegic nucIeai vaihead. In addilion lo
lheii geneiaIIy Iovei yieId, lheii lallIeheId nissions
encouiage connandeis lo see lhen as veapons foi
vaihghling ialhei lhan deleiience.
61
In luin, lhis sla3
lus nighl pIace lhen undei lhe laclicaI conlioI of heId
connandeis in ceilain condilions. A RAND Coipo3
ialion (RAND) sludy concIuded lhal sone Russian
opeialionaI connandeis can Iaunch giound-lased
TNW vilhoul fuilhei cenliaI goveinnenl appiovaI
aflei Russias civiIian nalionaI secuiily Ieadeis have
aulhoiized lheii depIoynenl lo fionl-Iine lioops.
62

Iending lheii eIininalion, anaIysls conceined aloul
TNWs seek lo liing non-slialegic veapons undei a
noie foinaI and lianspaienl ains conlioI iegine
391
lhan lhe exisling INIs, vhich Iack a IegaI lasis and
do nol enlaiI olIigaloiy dala exchanges oi olhei veii3
hcalion pioceduies.
63
The goveinnenls of nany de3
veIoping counliies aIso favoi eIininaling Russian and
NATO TNWs, a posilion lhey again advocaled duiing
lhe May 2O1O NIT Reviev Confeience.
The Ceoige W. ush adninislialion concIuded
lhal il vouId piove loo difhcuIl lo addiess TNWs
vilhin lhe conlexl of lhe Russian-Aneiican slialegic
nucIeai ains conlioI laIks. The May 2OO2 Slialegic
Offensive Reduclions Tiealy (SORT), Iike pievious
Soviel-Aneiican and Russian-Aneiican ains conlioI
agieenenls, does nol addiess nonslialegic nucIeai
foices. In sulsequenlIy expIaining lhis TNW excIu3
sion lefoie lhe U.S. Senale, lhen-Secielaiy of Defense
DonaId RunsfeId expIained lhal lhe pailies decided
il vouId piove loo difhcuIl lo iesoIve lhe nany ains
7/-.+/6 7/8*6#)&.&#( 0((/7&0.#, '&." ."#(# -/-(.+0.#3
gic veapons:
We nighl have aigued lhal Russias pioxinily lo
iogue nalions aIIovs lhen lo delei lhese iegines vilh
laclicaI syslens, lecause lhey aie nany lhousands of
niIes avay fion us, lhe Uniled Slales dislance fion
lhen iequiies noie inleiconlinenlaI syslens possilIy
lhan lhealei syslens. This couId have iesuIled in a
nind-nunling delale ovei hov nany non-slialegic
syslens . . . shouId equaI an inleiconlinenlaI syslen,
oi open lhe dooi lo a discussion of vhelhei an agiee3
nenl shouId incIude aII nucIeai vaiheads iegaidIess
of vhelhei lheyie slialegic oi laclicaI.
64

In eaiIy }une 2OO5, Assislanl Secielaiy of Slale foi
Ains ConlioI Slephen Radenakei said Russian ofh3
ciaIs conlinued lo evince veiy IillIe inleiesl in laIk3
ing lo us on fuilhei Russian-Aneiican non-slialegic
ains conlioI.
65

392
The Olana adninislialion aIso decided nol lo
piess Russia lo addiess nonslialegic nucIeai veapons
in lhe negolialions on lhe Nev START. When asked
aloul lhe issue al lhe ApiiI 6, 2OO9, session of lhe Cain3
egie Lndovnenl foi InleinalionaI Ieace confeience
on nucIeai nonpioIifeialion, chief U.S. Nev START
negolialoi Rose CollenoeIIei said lhal, vhiIe Iiesi3
denl Olana vas conceined aloul nonslialegic vai3
heads: My ovn viev is lhal lhe innediale START
foIIov-on negolialions viII nol le lhe aiea vheie lhal
issue is innedialeIy puisued. Inslead, she sinpIy
advocaled lhal ve shouId legin expIoiing lhe is3
sues vilh lhe Russian Iedeialion and decide hov lo
hl lhal inlo lhe agenda. Al lhe sane session, Seigey
I. KisIyak, cuiienlIy lhe Russian Anlassadoi lo lhe
Uniled Slales and an inuenliaI hguie in deleinining
Russias slialegic ains conlioI poIicies, aigued lhal,
vhiIe nonslialegic nucIeai veapons vouId need lo le
eIininaled if you decide lo nove lo lhe voiId fiee
of nucIeai veapons, foi lhe nonenl Russia and lhe
Uniled Slales have enough voik lo do nov lo focus
on lhings lhal aie doalIe, adding lhal, vhen you
go lo sulslialegic, lheie viII le a Iol of olhei lhings
lhal needs lo le enleied inlo lhe pIay. Anong lhese
issues, KisIyak ciled lhe inlaIances in convenlionaI
veapons |and lhej appeaiance of nev syslens lhal
nayle aie non-nucIeai, lul designed lo do lhe sane
jol.
66

The piovisions of lhe Nev START Tiealy~lhe
.#+8 #-7/8*0((#( ."# 80&- .+#0.5 .#).9 0 *+/./7/6
specifying sone addilionaI iighls and olIigalions of
."# *0+.&#(9 0-, ."# .#7"-&706 0--#)#(<'&66 -/. 011#7.
lhe TNW issue diieclIy lul viII heIp dehne Russian
niIilaiy pIanning foi fuluie nucIeai scenaiios. Many
piovisions IegaIIy conhin ieduclions lhal have aIieady
393
laken pIace oi aie in lhe piocess of occuiiing as Rus3
sia and lhe Uniled Slales conlinue lheii decades Iong
piaclice of heIding fevei lul noie capalIe and veisa3
liIe nucIeai syslens. The nev 1,55O Iinil foi depIoyed
nucIeai vaiheads on no noie lhan 7OO depIoyed
slialegic nucIeai deIiveiy vehicIes is Iovei lhan any
pievious liealy, lul each side possesses lhousands of
addilionaI vaiheads in sloiage, undeigoing nainle3
nance, oi in lhe foin of shoilei-iange nucIeai syslens.
The 7-yeai inpIenenlalion lineIine gives Russia and
lhe Uniled Slales anpIe line lo giaduaIIy conlinue ie3
ducing lheii lolaIs vhiIe nodeinizing lheii ienaining
aisenaIs. Iuilheinoie, lhe piovisions give Russia and
lhe Uniled Slales consideialIe exiliIily lo deleinine
"/' ./ (.+27.2+# ."#&+ -276#0+ 0+(#-06( '&."&- ."#(#
aggiegale Iinils. olh sides can conlinue lo keep a
slialegic liiad of ICMs, SLMs, and slialegic lonl3
eis, disliiluling lhe vaiheads anong lhese lhiee Iegs
as lhey piefei. The Uniled Slales and Russia aie even
aIIoved lo keep an addilionaI 1OO non-depIoyed ICM
and SLM Iauncheis and heavy lonleis equipped
foi nucIeai ainanenls, a piovision designed lo deaI
vilh lhe piolIen of lhe U.S. phanlon syslens~
lhose nissiIe Iauncheis and slialegic lonleis lhal aie
no Iongei usalIe lul sliII counled undei lhe oiiginaI
START, lecause lhey had nol leen eIininaled accoid3
ing lo ils pioceduies.
The liealys pioposed veiihcalion iegine vouId
le Iess inliusive and coslIy lhan lhe eIaloiale iequiie3
nenls of lhe 1991 START Tiealy, yel il sliII incIudes
/-3(&.# &-(*#7.&/-( /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( 107&6&.&#(9 80-3
daled exhililions of deIiveiy vehicIes, olIigaloiy ex3
changes of dala, and advanced nolihcalions of sone
aclivilies ieIaled lo Russian and Aneiican nucIeai
veapons poIicies. Olhei piovisions vouId faciIilale
394
liealy noniloiing ly piohililing acls lhal couId dis3
iupl nalionaI lechnicaI neans of veiihcalion and ly
nandaling lhe conlinued exchange of sone nissiIe
lesling leIeneliy.
NATO foieign ninisleis discussed lhe fuluie of
lhe aIIiances TNWs al an ApiiI 22-23, 2O1O, infoinaI
neeling in TaIIinn, Lslonia. The issue had lecone di3
visive vilhin lhe aIIiance as sone goveinnenls veie
piessing foi uniIaleiaIIy ending NATO nucIeai shai3
ing, vhiIe olheis veie insisling on ielaining il. AI3
lhough nol enpoveied lo nake concIusive decisions,
lhe foieign ninisleis neveilheIess agieed on sone
cIeai lhenes lo guide lheii appioach lo lhe TNW is3
sue:
- NATO nenlei slales viII nol nake uniIaleiaI
noves on nucIeai veapons issues,
- Menleis vouId shaie lhe luidens of nain3
laining a safe and ciedilIe nucIeai deleiienl,
- The aIIiance vouId laIance nainlaining a cied3
ilIe nucIeai deleiienl vilh lhe need lo conliil3
ule lo geneiaI ains conlioI and disainanenl.
67
Accoiding lo NATO Spokesnan }anes Appalhu3
iai, lhe foieign ninisleis did indicale one vay in vhich
NATO couId ieduce ils TNWs~if Russia agieed lo
eIininale sone of ils nuch Iaigei slockpiIe of lhese
veapons, as veII as ieIocale any TNWs ils does keep
avay fion neighloiing NATO counliies, and nake
lhese hoIdings noie lianspaienl. Secielaiy of Slale
HiIaiy CIinlon loId lhe foieign ninisleis lhal:
In |seekingj any fuluie ieduclions, oui ain shouId le
lo seek Russian agieenenl lo inciease lianspaiency
on non-slialegic nucIeai veapons in Luiope, ieIo3
cale lhose veapons avay fion lhe leiiiloiy of NATO
nenleis, and incIude non-slialegic nucIeai veapons
395
in lhe nexl iound of U.S.-Russian ains conlioI discus3
sions.
68

Appailhuiai olseived lhal, vhiIe NATO nighl lake
aclions affecling ils nucIeai veapons poIicies vilh3
oul a diiecl Russian inpul, Russia had lo le laken
inlo accounl vhen Iooking al lhe lioadei issue of ie3
ducing lhe lolaI hoIdings of nucIeai veapons in Lu3
iope.
69
NonelheIess, Appailhuiai acknovIedged lhal
lhe Russians have nol shovn inleiesl in negolialing
foinaI Iinils on lheii TNWs, and lhal lhe aIIies have
yel lo piopose inilialing foinaI negolialions vilh lhe
Russians.
Indeed, Russian ofhciaIs have expiessed IillIe inlei3
esl in enleiing inlo TNW ieduclion negolialions vilh
NATO. Inslead, lhey have ieguIaiIy denounced lhe aI3
Iiances nonslialegic veapons as leing lhiealening lo
Russia and have peisislenlIy uiged NATO lo ieIocale
aII foieign (i.e., Aneiican) TNWs lo lheii hone lei3
iiloiies. In lhis iegaid, Russian Coveinnenl iepiesen3
lalives oflen iefei lo hov Moscov has aIieady eIini3
naled lhe najoiily of lhe nonslialegic syslens lhal il
inheiiled fion lhe Soviel Union and ieIocaled lhe ie3
naindei in secuie sloiage excIusiveIy vilhin Russian
leiiiloiy.
70
In Iale 2OO3, CeneiaI aIuyevsky olseived
lhal lhe hundieds of U.S. aii-deIiveialIe TNWs in Lu3
iope aie foi Russia acquiiing a slialegic naluie since
lheoielicaIIy lhey couId le used on oui connand cen3
leis and slialegic nucIeai cenleis.
71
In }une 2OO5, De3
fense Minislei Ivanov said lhal Russia vas piepaied
lo slail laIks aloul laclicaI nucIeai veapons onIy vhen
aII counliies possessing lhen keep lhese veapons on
."#&+ /'- .#++&./+5.
72
In Maich 2O1O, Ioieign Minislei
Seigey Laviov said lhal ending lhe foivaid-posilion3
ing of U.S. TNWs shouId le lhe slailing poinl in any
conveisalion on lhis lopic.
73

396
The nain Russian niIilaiy nevspapei, Krasnaqa
Ztczda, has pulIished seveiaI ailicIes lhis yeai un3
deiscoiing lhal Russia vanled lhe Uniled Slales lo
ienove aII ils TNW fion Luiope even lefoie Moscov
vouId consenl lo enlei inlo nonslialegic ains conlioI
laIks. One aulhoi expIained:
efoie lhe leginning of ofhciaI discussions on lhis
lhene, Washinglon and Moscov nusl lake lhe sane
slailing posilion in lhe negolialions. |The Uniled
Slales nusl agieej lo vilhdiav aII of ils TNW fion lhe
Luiopean conlinenl and liing lhen lack lo ils ovn
leiiiloiy. Thal is, il nusl do vhal Russia did 15 yeais
ago.
74

Aneiican ofhciaIs have liadilionaIIy iesponded lo
lhis Russian aigunenl ly noling lhal U.S. nonsliale3
gic nucIeai veapons pIay an essenliaI ioIe in suslain3
ing NATOs nucIeai deleiience and discouiaging ef3
foils ly addilionaI NATO nenleis lo acquiie lheii
ovn nucIeai veapons.
On lhose iaie occasions vhen pioninenl Russian
poIicynakeis have gone leyond lhis paily-Iine posi3
lion, lhey have Iaid oul sliingenl condilions foi even
inilialing nonslialegic ains conlioI laIks~lhese con3
dilions aie unIikeIy lo le soon ieaIized unIess NATO
pioves viIIing lo nake vaiy geneious uniIaleiaI con3
cessions. On Seplenlei 3, 2OO7, Russian CoIoneI Cen3
eiaI VIadinii Veikhovlsev, head of lhe Defense Min3
isliys 12lh Main Diiecloiale (G|atncqc Uprat|cniqc
Minis|crs|tc Oocrcnq~CUMO), vhich is iesponsilIe
foi Russias nucIeai veapons, loId iepoileis lhal Rus3
sia vouId considei negolialing addilionaI iesliiclions
on nonslialegic nucIeai veapons, lul il nusl lake
*607# '&." ."# *0+.&7&*0.&/- &- ."# *+/7#(( /1 /."#+
counliies, alove aII iilain and Iiance.
75
Since Iiance
397
and iilain chaiacleiize lheii nucIeai-ained laIIislic
nissiIes as slialegic ialhei lhan nonslialegic veapons,
lhey and olhei NATO goveinnenls, incIuding Wash3
inglon, have iesisled lheii incIusion in any nonsliale3
gic negolialions. The foIIoving yeai, CeneiaI NikoIai
Makaiov, CeneiaI aIuyevskys iepIacenenl as head
of lhe Russian CeneiaI Slaff, loId ITAR-TASS lhal lhe
Russian Ained Ioices had no inlenlion of eIininaling
ils TNWs as Iong as Luiope is unslalIe and packed
vilh ainanenls~a condilion lhal couId le used in3
dehnileIy lo chaiacleiize lhe niIilaiy silualion on lhe
Conlinenl pending univeisaI disainanenl (lhough
Makaiov piolalIy neanl lhe conlinued exislence of
NATO and ils iolusl convenlionaI foices).
76

Russians oulside lhe execulive lianch have leen
sonevhal noie ciealive and exilIe in consideiing
hov lo achieve sone TNW ains conlioI~suggesling
Iinking laIks on ieducing Russian TNWs, an aiea of
Russian advanlage, in ieluin foi U.S. and NATO con3
cessions iegaiding slialegic offensive nucIeai veap3
ons (especiaIIy ly ieducing lhe Iaigei nunlei of U.S.
non-depIoyed nucIeai vaiheads), slialegic defenses,
oi lhe convenlionaI foice inlaIance in Luiope, vhich
piesenlIy favois NATO.
77
?#(.#+- 0-065(.( "0%# /13
feied siniIai pioposaIs, Iinking Russian concessions
iegaiding TNWs lo NATOs accepling Iinils on ils
convenlionaI supeiioiily lhiough an enhanced Con3
venlionaI Ioices in Luiope (CIL) Tiealy.
78
B."#+ ?#(.3
ein anaIysls have pioposed exlending lhe piovisions
of lhe liIaleiaI INI Tiealy lo enconpass lolh shoilei-
iange nissiIes and addilionaI counliies.
79
efoie as3
suning ofhce, a senioi advisoi lo Secielaiy of Slale
CIinlon suggesled ienoving sone oi aII U.S. TNWs
fion NATO Luiope in ieluin foi encouiaging Russia
sinpIy lo concenliale ils Iaige nunlei of TNWs in
398
noie secuie Iocalions.
8O
Russian ofhciaIs have aIso ex3
piessed aIain aloul U.S. pionpl gIolaI sliike pIans~
lhe aining of liadilionaIIy nucIeai-ained slialegic
,#6&%#+5 (5(.#8( '&." 7/-%#-.&/-06 '0+"#0,(<(/
lhey nighl vanl lo iesliicl lhose fuilhei in ieluin foi
consliaining TNWs.
81
Russian goveinnenl ofhciaIs nighl le seeking
lo avoid nonslialegic ains conlioI laIks in anlicipa3
lion lhal Luiopean goveinnenls nighl al sone poinl
decide lo iequesl lhe ienovaI of U.S. TNWs in any
case given a Iack of videspiead popuIai suppoil foi
NATOs nucIeai nission. Sone Russian anaIysls aIso
seen conceined lhal any foinaI negolialions on lhe
&((2# '/26, +0&(# ."# *+/8&-#-7# /1 ."# &((2# '&."&-
Luiope and Iead NATO nenleis conceined aloul
Russian niIilaiy povei lo denand lhal lhe aIIiance
eilhei keep lhe NATO TNWs oi lake olhei sleps lo
loIslei lheii defenses againsl Moscov.
82
A&-06659 (#%3
eiaI Russian viileis have expiessed concein lhal dis3
cussing Iinilalions on nonslialegic nucIeai veapons
couId undeinine lhe piospecls foi iefoining Russias
convenlionaI foices. Nol onIy couId opponenls of ie3
foin cile lhe iesuIling anli-Russian iheloiic of Lasl
Luiopean NATO nenleis feaifuI of Moscov, lul
lhey couId oljecl lo exposing Russian vuIneialiIilies
duiing lhe unslalIe liansilion peiiod lhal vouId aiise
lelveen vhen lhe exisling sliucluie vas disnanlIed
and lhe nev one vas fuIIy opeialionaI.
83
Lven if Russia veie lo agiee lo enlei inlo foinaI
nonslialegic negolialions vilh NATO, il is uncIeai
hov lhese laIks couId lesl le sliucluied. TNW issues
couId le discussed in liIaleiaI Russia-U.S. laIks de3
voled soIeIy lo lhal issue, lhough Russia has aIvays
iesisled lhal appioach and Washinglons NATO aIIies
vouId nol veIcone lheii excIusion. They couId aIso
399
le deaIl vilh as pail of lhe NATO-Russia diaIogue
iegaiding a nev Luiopean secuiily aichilecluie. Mos3
cov vouId Iike lo diav up a nev Luiopean Secuiily
Tiealy aIong lhe Iines of lhe diafl lexl pioposed ly
Russian Iiesidenl Medvedev. These couId occui
vilhin lhe fianevoik of lhe NATO-Russia CounciI,
lul Appalhuiai said duiing his ApiiI 22 TaIIinn nevs
confeience lhal: I donl lhink lhal lhal is on lhe in3
nediale agenda. Thals nol lhe foiun in vhich lhal
kind of discussion, I lhink, vouId le heId, and cei3
lainIy nol nov.
84

Iuilheinoie, lhe TNW issues couId le negolialed
as pail of foIIov-on negolialions lo lhe Nev START,
'"&7" '/26, 7/%#+ /."#+ &((2#( (#. 0(&,# &- ."# +2("
lo negoliale lhe iecenlIy signed liealy (non-depIoyed
nucIeai vaiheads, slialegic defense syslens, and lhe
2(# /1 7/-%#-.&/-06 '0+"#0,( /- .+0,&.&/-0665 (.+03
legic deIiveiy vehicIes such as Iong-iange laIIislic
nissiIes). IinaIIy, lhey nighl le consideied as pail of
lhe discussions lo slienglhen lhe NIT againsl fuilhei
nucIeai pioIifeialion (nany NIT pailies considei NA3
TOs nucIeai-shaiing aiiangenenl a vioIalion of lhe
hisl lvo ailicIes of lhe liealy).
Whal iesuIls one nighl ieasonalIy hope lo achieve
fion such negolialions is uncIeai. Lven an Aneiican
offei lo iedepIoy aII U.S. nucIeai veapons in Luiope
lo lhe Uniled Slales nighl piove insufhcienl lo con3
vince lhe Russian Coveinnenl lo agiee lo addilionaI
TNW ains conlioI neasuies. The Uniled Slales couId
ieluin ils shoil-iange nucIeai veapons lo Luiope in
a fev houis unIess lheii sloiage siles and ieIaled in3
fiasliucluie had aIso leen deslioyed. In addilion, il
vouId piove difhcuIl lo veiify any agieenenl since
allack aiiciafl, lhe nain NATO deIiveiy syslen foi
U.S. nonslialegic nucIeai veapons, aie lypicaIIy duaI-
use syslens lhal can aIso Iaunch convenlionaI sliikes.
4OO
Any pioposaIs foi incieased lianspaiency oi TNW
consoIidalion vouId need lo oveicone Russian feais
aloul NATO pieenplion, since pIacing lhe veapons
in a fev designaled pIaces vouId nake lhen easiei
lo allack, ciealing oppoilunilies (and incenlives) foi a
pieenplive hisl sliike lhal vouId deslioy lhe veapons
lefoie lhey couId le dispeised lo lheii Iaunch siles.
>-5 *+/*/(06( 1/+ 6#(( ."0- ./.06 +#,27.&/-( '/26,
need lo addiess U.S. congiessionaI conceins aloul lhe
inlaIance in lhe Russian-U.S. TNWs, vhich vouId
lecone especiaIIy saIienl veie lolh counliies lo ne3
goliale fuilhei ieduclions in lhe size of lheii slialegic
nucIeai aisenaIs. The vaihead and Iaunchei Iinils in
lhe Nev START nay aIieady le Iovei lhan lhe size
of Russias iesiduaI TNWs, lhough lhe Iallei aie ly
dehnilion Iess lhiealening lo lhe U.S. honeIand and
conpensaled foi ly NATOs supeiioi convenlionaI
foices.
Lven if lhe pailies aie unalIe lo secuie lhe eIinina3
lion of aII NATO and Russian TNW, oi if sone veap3
ons veie exenpl fion lhe lianspaiency aiiangenenls
lo enhance deleiience lhiough lhe incieased uncei3
lainly, nuluaI TNW ieduclions couId piovide seveiaI
advanlages, incIuding ieducing lhe nunlei of pos3
silIe leiioiisl laigels, saving noney lhal vouId have
lo le spenl on having lo nodeinize a Iaigei nunlei of
veapons, aIIoving NATO lo ienove lhe TNWs fion
counliies no Iongei eagei lo hosl lhen (vhich nighl
Ieave U.S. TNWs in onIy Tuikey and peihaps IlaIy),
and denonslialing NATO and Russian connilnenl
lo naking piogiess lovaid nucIeai nonpioIifeialion.
Yel, secuiing Russian Coveinnenl appiovaI foi even
pailiaI ieduclions Iooks unIikeIy foi lhe indehnile fu3
luie.
4O1
6;5673!-;5< 5367842 :;!!-/-7-=-8! 45?
-773!-;5!
In iecenl yeais, a nunlei of Aneiican and inlei3
nalionaI secuiily expeils, incIuding seveiaI vho heId
pioninenl U.S. Coveinnenl posilions duiing lhe
CoId Wai, have suppoiled vaiious pioposaIs Ieading
lovaid geneiaI nucIeai disainanenl.
85
In his ApiiI
2OO9 speech in Iiague, Iiesidenl Olana decIaied his
uIlinale oljeclive lo le lhe conpIele eIininalion of aII
nucIeai veapons. Russian ofhciaIs have pulIicIy of3
feied geneiaI suppoil foi eIininaling nucIeai veap3
ons al sone poinl. Al his Seplenlei 2OO8 neeling in
Sochi vilh foieign expeils of Russia vho veie nen3
leis of lhe VaIdai Discussion CIul, Iiine Minislei
Iulin gave condilionaI suppoil foi aloIishing nucIeai
veapons. AIlhough Iulin acknovIedged lhal, unliI a
fev yeais ago, he vouId have consideied achieving
lhe piaclicaI eIininalion of nucIeai veapons also3
IuleIy inpossilIe, he nov piofessed lhal: Today I
considei il aInosl ieaIislic given lhal lhe convenlion3
aI veapons capaliIilies of nucIeai veapons slales, Iike
Russia, had inpioved sufhcienlIy lo delei any aggies3
soi.
86
Medvedev and Olana ieafhined in lheii ApiiI
1 joinl slalenenl lheii uIlinale goaI of aloIishing aII
nucIeai veapons. AddilionaIIy, Iulin iesponded afhi3
80.&%#65 ./ 0 =2#(.&/- 0. 0 4/&-. -#'( 7/-1#+#-7# '&."
visiling Ceinan Ioieign Minislei Iiank-WaIlei Slein3
neiei vhen asked vhelhei he couId inagine a Russia
vilhoul nucIeai veapons, lhough Iulin indicaled he
vouId expecl foi lhe Uniled Slales lo aIso eIininale ils
ovn nucIeai foices.
87
NonelheIess, nany foieign olseiveis of lhe Rus3
sian defense connunily doull lhal lhe Russian gov3
#+-8#-. '/26, '0-. ./ +#6&-=2&(" /-# /1 ."# 60(.
4O2
ienaining piops of Russias gieal povei slalus, and
cieale a silualion in vhich Aneiican and NATO con3
venlionaI niIilaiy supeiioiily vouId le unchecked ly
Russian nucIeai veapons.
88
InuenliaI Russians have
aIso expiessed unease al liansilioning lo a nucIeai-fiee
voiId. In ApiiI 2OO9, Seigey Rogov, lhe diiecloi of lhe
USA and Canada Inslilule of lhe Russian Acadeny
of Sciences, pulIished a connenlaiy in lhe Russian
-#'(*0*#+ Kcnncrsan| expIicilIy vaining lhal, lhe
Iovei lhe IeveI of Russia and Aneiican nucIeai foices,
lhe noie signihcanl lhe convenlionaI inlaIance of
foices viII lecone.
89
Like Iulin, Iiesidenl Medvedev
has desciiled Russias possession of nucIeai veapons
as lhe nain luIvaik guaianleeing lhe counliys aliI3
ily lo puisue an independenl foieign poIicy in an in3
leinalionaI syslen heaviIy doninaled ly lhe Uniled
Slales.
90

On ApiiI 2O, 2OO9, Medvedev diieclIy addiessed
Olanas ApiiI 5 Iiague speech in vhich Olana
7066#, 1/+ ."# #%#-.206 #6&8&-0.&/- /1 -276#0+ '#0*3
ons. Medvedev said lhal a nunlei of condilions
nusl le achieved foi univeisaI nucIeai disainanenl.
These pieiequisiles incIude: lanning lhe depIoynenl
of nucIeai veapons in oulei space, ensuiing lhal nu3
76#0+ '#0*/-( +#8/%#, 1+/8 /*#+0.&/-06 ,#*6/58#-.
veie deslioyed ialhei lhan sinpIy slockpiIed, and,
pievenling a conpensaling luiIdup in convenlionaI
ains foIIoving a ieduclion in nucIeai foices. Med3
%#,#% 12+."#+ '0+-#, ."0. ."# 2-&60.#+06 ,#*6/58#-.
of nissiIe defense syslens aIso conpIicales nucIeai
disainanenl.
91
The Russian peopIe aIso favoi lheii
counliys ielenlion of a iolusl nucIeai foice. Ioi ex3
anpIe, a iecenl poII ly lhe Russia IulIic Opinion
Reseaich Cenlei (VTsIOM) found lhal, unIike in lhe
yeais innedialeIy foIIoving lhe end of lhe CoId Wai,
4O3
a najoiily of Russian iespondenls (6O peicenl) nov
oppose fuilhei nucIeai disainanenl. Mosl ciled a
concein vilh assuiing Russias secuiily in case of vai,
vhiIe a quailei of lhe iespondenls favoied pieseiving
Russias nucIeai veapons lo shovcase Russias poIili3
caI povei. OnIy 4 peicenl said lhal nucIeai veapons
veie essenliaI foi counleiing U.S. niIilaiy slienglh,
lhough such a peispeclive nay le enconpassed in lhe
alove iesponses and appeais connon anong Rus3
sias cuiienl geneialion of foieign and defense poIicy
Ieadeis.
92

Mosl Aneiicans vouId piolalIy nol piesenlIy fa3
voi eIininaling lhe U.S. nucIeai aisenaI. In ils ApiiI
2O1O Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr|, lhe Olana adnin3
islialion ilseIf sels veiy high slandaids foi ieaIizing a
nucIeai-fiee voiId:
The condilions lhal vouId uIlinaleIy peinil lhe Unil3
ed Slales and olheis lo give up lheii nucIeai veapons
vilhoul iisking giealei inleinalionaI inslaliIily and
insecuiily aie veiy denanding. Anong lhose aie lhe
iesoIulion of iegionaI dispules lhal can nolivale iivaI
(.0.#( ./ 07=2&+# 0-, 80&-.0&- -276#0+ '#0*/-(9 (273
cess in haIling lhe pioIifeialion of nucIeai veapons,
nuch giealei lianspaiency inlo lhe piogians and
capaliIilies of key counliies of concein, veiihcalion
nelhods and lechnoIogies capalIe of delecling vioIa3
lions of disainanenl olIigalions, and enfoicenenl
neasuies sliong and ciedilIe enough lo delei such
vioIalions. CIeaiIy, such condilions do nol exisl loday.
ul ve can~and nusl~voik acliveIy lo cieale lhose
condilions.
93
ReaIizing lhese condilions in Russias case vouId
+#=2&+# 0 .+0-(1/+80.&/- &- ."# ."+#0. *#+7#*.&/-(9
secuiily cuIluie, and defense anlilions of Russian
Ieadeis conpaialIe lo lhal vhich occuiied in Cei3
4O4
nany and }apan in lhe geneialions aflei WoiId Wai
II. AIlhough lhese cases shov lhal lhese lypes of secu3
iily ievoIulions aie possilIe~and Russia nighl have
cone cIose lo expeiiencing one duiing lhe fev yeais
innedialeIy foIIoving lhe denise of lhe Soviel Union
and ils inheienlIy anlagonislic Connunisl ideoI3
ogy~lhey aie aIso veiy iaie. Russia viII IikeIy ienain
0 -276#0+ '#0*/-( */'#+ 1/+ ,#70,#( ./ 7/8#9 '&."
nonslialegic veapons seiving as a pioninenl looI in
ils poilfoIio.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 c
1. NikoIai Sokov, Issue iief: TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons
(TNW), Nuc|car Tnrca| |ni|ia|itc, May 2OO2, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
n|i.crg/c_rcscarcn/c3_10a.n|n|.
2. |oid.
3. Wade oese, Deepei NucIeai Culs UnIikeIy foi Nov,
Arns Ccn|rc| Tcdaq, VoI. 35, No. 6, }uIy/Augusl 2OO5, p. 36, and
Iiess Confeience vilh Slephen Radenakei, Acling Assislanl
Secielaiy of Slale foi Secuiily and NonpioIifeialion Issues, Of3
hciaI KienIin InleinalionaI Nevs ioadcasl, ApiiI 12, 2OO6, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.sgpprcjcc|.crg/Pcrscna|20Usc20On|q/G8Radc-
na|cr4.12.06.n|n.
4. Roleil S. Noiiis and Hans M. Kiislensen, U.S. NucIeai
Ioices, 2O1O, 8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, Maich/ApiiI 2O1O,
p. 65.
5. Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr|, Washinglon, DC: U.S. De3
pailnenl of Defense, ApiiI 2O1O, p. 29.
6. Yadeinoe Oiyzhie Rossii - Iiolivoves Vooiyzheniyan
v Lviope, Orqznic Rcssii, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arns-cxpc.
ru/si|c.xp/049051124053055052049.n|n|, and Igoi Koiolchenko,
Voennyi Dispaiilel s NATO RI NeiliaIizyel Yadeinyn Oiy3
zhien, Decenlei 12, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion ncus.|n.ru/tccnnqj_
dispari|c|_s_na|c_rf_ncj.
4O5
7. Seigei ZhuiavIev, On Conlal Readiness: The
1,OOO,OOO-Sliong Ainy Cannol Iighl, Nczatisincc tccnncc cocz-
rcnic, ApiiI 2, 2O1O.
8. NikoIai Ioioskov, O IiolIene Sokiasheniya Taklichesk3
ogo Yadeinogo Oiyzhiya, |trcpcis|aqa 8czcpasncs|. Scoq|iqa,
Ozcn|i, Prcgnczq, No. 11, Maich 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.inicn.
ru/prcduc|/curcscc/s|1tp11.n|n#1.
9. AIexei Ailalov: v Yadeinon AisenaIe RI ne Menee 1O Ty3
syach oezaiyadov, RiaNctcs|i, }uIy 6, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
rian.ru/dcfcnsc_safc|q/20100706/252532909.n|n|.
1O. AIexei Ailalov, Taklicheskoe Yadeinoe Oiyzhie - Iiol3
Ieny i Resheniya, May 5, 2O1O, Vccnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Kqrcr9
avaiIalIe fion tp|.nanc/ncus/39071_|a||icncs|cc_qadcrncc_cru-
znic__prco|cnqi_i_rcsncniqa.n|n|, and KoIicheslvo NosileIei i
oezaiyadov Slialegicheskix Yadeinyx SiI U.S. i Rossii, Nctcs|i
VPK, Maich 3O, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion tp|.nanc/ncus/37967_|c|icn-
cs|tc_ncsi|c|ci_i_occzarqadct_s|ra|cgicncs|in_qadcrnqin_si|_ssna_i_
rcssii.n|n|.
11. Noiiis and Kiislensen, p. 74.
12. |oid., p.79.
13. RoI Taklicheskogo Yadeinogo Oiuzhiya na Mnogol3
seIevykh AIL Voziaslel - VMI (The RoIe of TaclicaI NucIeai
Weapons on MuIlipuipose Sulnaiines Sel lo Ciov~lhe Navy,)
R|A-Nctcs|i, Augusl 23, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rian.ru/dcfcnsc_
safc|q/20090323/165742858.n|n|.
14. Noiiis and Kiislensen, p. 79.
15. MiIes A. Ionpei, WiIIian Iollei, and NikoIai Sokov, Rc-
ducing and Rcgu|a|ing Tac|ica| (Ncns|ra|cgic) Nuc|car lcapcns in
|urcpc, Monleiey: CA: Monleiey Inslilule of InleinalionaI Slud3
ies, }anes Mailin Cenlei foi NonpioIifeialion Sludies, Decenlei
2OO9, p. 14.
16. Vccnnaqa Dc||ina Rcssiqs|cq |cdcra|sii (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf
|nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Russian Iiesidenls velsile, Ieliuaiy 5,
4O6
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion ncus.|rcn|in.ru/rcf_nc|cs/461. See aIso NATO
IiedslavIyael Doslalochno Seieznyu Ygiozy dIya Rossii, Ran-
o|cr Nctcs|i, Ieliuaiy 9, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion ncus.rano|cr.ru/
U|rainc/r/5285633/, and Seigei Tyichenko and Ieli VIadiniiov,
NikoIai Ialiyshev: Rossiya Ineel Iiavo na Iievenlivnyi Yad3
einyi Ydai. Sekielai Sovleza RI NaponniI, Chlo y Alonnoi Dy3
linki, Koloioi Tak Lulyal Raznaxival US, Lsl i Vloioi Konez,
Stcocdnaqa Prcssa, Oclolei 14, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion stprcssa.ru/
sccic|q/ar|ic|c/15470/.
17. Vccnnaqa Dc||rinc Rcssiqs|cq |cdcra|sii, (Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc
cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn), ApiiI 21, 2OOO, avaiIalIe fion uuu.na-
|icna|sccuri|q.ru/|iorarq/00003/indcx.n|n.
18. The asic Iiovisions of lhe MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Rus3
sian Iedeialion, adopled ly Ldicl No. 1833 of lhe Iiesidenl of
lhe Russian Iedeialion, Novenlei 2, 1993, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
fas.crg/nu|c/guidc/russia/dcc|rinc/russia-ni|-dcc.n|n|.
19. Mallhev Day, Russia 'SinuIales NucIeai Allack on
IoIand, Tnc Tc|cgrapn, Novenlei 2, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
|c|cgrapn.cc.u|/ncus/ucr|dncus/curcpc/pc|and/6480227/Russia-sinu-
|a|cs-nuc|car-a||ac|-cn-Pc|and.n|n|, and Ionpei, Iollei, and Sok- Ionpei, Iollei, and Sok3
ov, p. 14.
2O. See, foi exanpIe, Head of lhe CeneiaI Slaff: lhe RI De3
veIops a Nev MiIilaiy Docliine and IIans MiIilaiy Measuies
Againsl lhe U.S. MD, Ncusru.ccn, May 7, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.ncusru.ccn/russia/07naq2007/oa|ucts|ij.n|n|.
21. Tinofey oiisov, NikoIay Ialiushev: The Diafl of lhe
Nev Docunenl, vhich Dehnes lhe Counliys Defense CapaliIily,
Has een Iiepaied, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, Novenlei 2O, 2OO9. See
aIso VIadinii Manonlov, Secuiily CounciIs NikoIai Ialiushev
Inleivieved on MiIilaiy Docliine, |ztcs|iqa, Oclolei 14, 2OO9.
22. See, foi exanpIe, Dniliy Coienluig, Russias Nev MiIi3
laiy Docliine: An Lxeicise in IulIic ReIalions, Ieliuaiy 8, 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion russiani|.ucrdprcss.ccn/2010/02/08/russias-ncu-ni|-
i|arq-dcc, and MaiceI de Haas, DocliinaI SlipuIalions and IoIili3
caI ReaIilies. Whal ShouId e lhe Weslein Response lo lhe Nev
Docliine` Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 2, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.ng.ru/rca||q/2010-02-26/1_dc||rina.n|nI.
4O7
23. See foi exanpIe: The NalionaI Secuiily Concepl of lhe
Russian Iedeialion, adopled ly lhe Deciee of lhe Iiesidenl of
lhe Russian Iedeialion No. 13OO of Decenlei 17, 1997, in lhe
Ldiled Veision of lhe IiesidenliaI Deciee No. 24 of }anuaiy 1O,
2OOO, avaiIalIe fion uuu.iss.niii|.ru/dc||rins/dc||r01.n|n, and
The Lav of lhe Russian Iedeialion on Defense, adopled ly lhe
Slale Duna on ApiiI 24, 1996, and Appioved ly lhe Iedeialion
CounciI on May 15, 1996, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nrc.crg/dccs/r|cx/dc-
fcncc/indcx.n|n.
24. Seigey Ivanov, MiIilaiy Docliine: Russia Musl e
Sliong, Vcdcncs|i, }anuaiy 12, 2OO6.
25. Seigey Ivanov, Russia Reseives lhe Righl lo Iieenplive
Sliikes, Mcsccu Agcn|s|tc Vccnnq|n Nctcs|ci, Ieliuaiy 7, 2OO7.
26. Seigey Ivanov iaskiyI liilanlsan lseIi I zadachi iossi3
yskikh yadeinykh siI, }uIy 14, 2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rc|.ru/
ncus/nisc/ncus/04/07/14_010.n|n.
27. Vikloi Lilovkin, CeneiaI Caieyev: Russia Changing ils
MiIilaiy Docliine, R|A Nctcs|i, Iail 2, }anuaiy 18, 2OO7, avaiI3
alIe fion cn.rian.ru/ana|qsis/20070118/59307373.n|n|. See aIso
Makhnul Caieyev, Nev Condilions~Nev MiIilaiy Docliine,
Nczatisincc Vccnncc Ooczrcnic, Ieliuaiy 2, 2OO7.
28. Slialegiya nalsionaInoy lezopasnosli RI do 2O2O goda,
May 12, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nsnor.ru/s|ra|cgiqa_no_rf.n|n|.
29. Veia Silnina, Voina Mozhel Vspykhnul Vnezapno, Vrc-
nqa Nctcs|ci, Seplenlei 29, 2OO8.
3O. Vikloi Myasnikov, Slaiie osnovi novoy dokliiny, Ncza-
tisinaqa gazc|a, Decenlei 19, 2OO6.
31. AIexei Ailalov, Advancing U.S.-Russian Secuiily Coop3
eialion, liansciipl of piesenlalion al lhe Cainegie Lndovnenl
foi InleinalionaI Ieace, ApiiI 1, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.carn-
cgiccndcuncn|.crg/j|cs/0402carncgic-russia1.pdf.
4O8
32. Ciled in Ielei Iinn, AnlinissiIe IIan y U.S. Sliains
Ties Wilh Russia, lasning|cn Pcs|, Ieliuaiy 21, 2OO7, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.uasning|cnpcs|.ccn/up-dqn/ccn|cn|/ar|ic|c/2007/02/20/
AR2007022001431.n|n|?nat=rss_ucr|d/|urcpc.
33. VIadinii Socoi, Ukiaines Top Thiee Leadeis Requesl
NATO Menleiship Aclion IIan, }anuaiy 18, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.jancs|cun.crg/sing|c/?nc_cacnc=1c|x_||ncus58||_ncus
5D=33304.
34. Luke Haiding, Iulin Issues NucIeai Thieal lo Ukiaine
ovei IIan lo Hosl US ShieId, Tnc Guardian, Ieliuaiy 13, 2OO8,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.guardian.cc.u|/ucr|d/2008/fco/13/russia.pu|in.
35. Ciled in Russia Mighl Taigel U.S. MissiIe Defenses in Lu3
iope, CIolaI Secuiily Nevsviie, Seplenlei 21, 2OO6, avaiIalIe
1+/8 204.71.60.35/d_ncusuirc/issucs/2006/9/21/129c3869-dfc9-4c90-
od29-da75of307a26.n|n|.
36. NikoIai Sokov, Russias Nevesl Sulnaiine-Launched
MissiIe IaiIs in Tesls, lul Tesls of Olhei Syslens Succeed: Defense
Minislei Ivanov Raises Queslions on Slalus of Russian Sea-ased
TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons, lMD |nsign|s, No. 1O, Novenlei
2OO6, pp. 3O-31, and VIadinii Mukhin, uIava kak zeikaIo olo3
ionki (uIava is Like a Defense CiicIe), Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a9
Seplenlei 12, 2OO6.
37. Russia CouId Use TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons lo Defeal
U.S. MissiIe Defenses in Luiope, Lxpeils Say, CIolaI Secuiily
Nevsviie, Seplenlei 22, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg/d_
ncusuirc/issucs/2006_9_22.n|n|.
38. DepIoynenl of U.S. MissiIe Defense in Luiope Is Thieal
lo Russia~MiIilaiy Chief, Oclolei 18, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
ncsncus.ccn/ncus/2006/10/18/us|nrca|.sn|n|.
39. Russia CouId Taigel MissiIes al Siles in CenliaI Luiope,
R|A Nctcs|i, Seplenlei 1O, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/rus-
sia/20080910/116678626.n|n|.
4O. Thon Shankei and NichoIas KuIish, IoIand-U.S. MissiIe
DeaI Diavs Angei fion Russia, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, Augusl 15, 2OO8,
4O9
avaiIalIe fion uuu.nq|incs.ccn/2008/08/15/ucr|d/curcpc/15in|-
nissi|c.3.15333406.n|n|.
41. Rice lo Visil IoIand lo Sign MissiIe ShieId DeaI, Agence-
Iiance Iiess, Augusl 17, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion afp.gccg|c.ccn/ar|i-
c|c/A|cqM5g|zVO9YnRVc2z]X]ufN]0XQRZQlg.
42. Russian MissiIes Neai IoIand lo 'Offsel U.S. ShieId -
NATO Lnvoy, R|A Nctcs|i, Novenlei 5, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion
cn.rian.ru/russia/20081105/118146144.n|n|.
43. Russias Iskandei esl Ansvei lo U.S. MissiIes in Luiope
- AnaIysl, R|A Nctcs|i, Novenlei 5, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.
ru/russia/20081105/118140039.n|n|.
44. Russian MissiIe Move Woiiies NATO Menlei Lslonia,
Radio Iiee Luiope/Radio Lileily, }uIy 2O, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.rfcr|.crg/ccn|cn|/Russian_Missi|c_Mctc_lcrrics_NATO_
Mcnocr_|s|cnia/2105076.n|n|.
45. Ciled in Russia lo uy 17 ICMs in 2OO7 - Minislei,
R|A Nctcs|i, Novenlei 16, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/rus-
sia/20061116/55705839.n|n|.
46. Ioi a piolalIy exaggeialed assessnenl of lhe U.S. capac3
ily lo Iaunch an effeclive hisl sliike againsl Russia and China,
see Kiei A. Leilei and DaiyI C. Iiess, The Rise of U.S. NucIeai
Iiinacy, |crcign Affairs, VoI. 85, No. 2, Maich-ApiiI 2OO6, pp.
42-54, and Keii A. Lielei and DaiyI C. Iiess, The Lnd of MAD`
The NucIeai Dinension of U.S. Iiinacy, |n|crna|icna| Sccuri|q9
VoI. 3O, No. 4, Spiing 2OO6, pp. 7-44. Russian iesponses lo lheii
assessnenl aie suiveyed in Ailhui Iinov and Igoi IIugalaiev,
Cuaianleed UniIaleiaI Desliuclion, Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a9
Maich 23, 2OO6, and IaveI K. aev, Moscov Iuls IR Spin on
ils Shiinking NucIeai AisenaI, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, ApiiI 17,
2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.jancs|cun.crg/sing|c/?nc_cacnc=1c|x_
||ncus58||_ncus5D=31591. Olhei ciiliques appeaied in lhe
Seplenlei-Oclolei 2OO6 issue of |crcign Affairs.
47. Rossii Nyzhno Dal Iiavo na Iiinenenie Ydeinogo Oiy3
zhiya - Lxpeil, R|A Nctcs|i, Maich 12, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion nuc|c-
arnc.ru/|cx|.asp?12665.
41O
48. Vikloi Myasnikov, VIadinii Ivanov, and Anlon Khodas3
evich, Novaya slialegicheskaya inilsialiva, Nczatisinaqa Gazc|a9
}une 26, 2OO6.
49. Accoiding lo one aulhoiilalive souice, De-escaIalion of
aggiession is dehned as foicing lhe eneny lo haIl niIilaiy ac3
lion ly lhieal lo deIivei oi ly acluaI deIiveiy of sliikes of vaiying
inlensily vilh ieIiance on convenlionaI and (oi) nucIeai veap3
ons. Seigey Ivanov, Pricri|q Tas|s cf |nc Dctc|cpncn| cf |nc Arncd
|crccs cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn, Moscov, Russia: Minisliy of De3
fense, Oclolei 2, 2OO3, p. 7O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.pirccn|cr.crg/in-
dcx.pnp?id=184.
5O. The asic Iiovisions of lhe MiIilaiy Docliine of lhe Rus3
sian Iedeialion, adopled ly Ldicl No. 1833 of lhe Iiesidenl of
lhe Russian Iedeialion, Novenlei 2, 1993, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
fas.crg/nu|c/guidc/russia/dcc|rinc/russia-ni|-dcc.n|n|.
51. AIeksei Ailalov, TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons - IiolIens
and Iiospecls, Vccnnc-prcnqsn|cnnqi |urqcr, May 5, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion uuu.carncgic.ru/puo|ica|icns/?fa=40747.
52. This delale is ievieved in NikoIai Sokov, Modeiniza3
lion of Slialegic NucIeai Weapons in Russia: The Lneiging Nev
Iosluie, May 1998, avaiIalIe fion uuu.n|i.crg/do/nisprcfs/ctcr/
ncdcrn.n|n, and Iiank Unlach, |u|urc Mi|i|arq Rcfcrn. Russias
Nuc|car c Ccntcn|icna| |crccs, CanleiIey, UK: Conicl Sludies
Reseaich Cenlie, Defence Acadeny of lhe Uniled Kingdon, Au3
gusl 2OO2, pp. 11-14.
53. Tiansciipl of lhe Iiess Confeience foi lhe Russian and
Ioieign Media, }anuaiy 31, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/
cng/spcccncs/2006/01/31/0953_|qpc82915|qpc82917_100901.sn|n|. In
an inleiviev vilh NC Nevs, Iulin Iikevise olseived: Hov can
ve laIk aloul ensuiing gIolaI secuiily and addiess lhe issues of
nonpioIifeialion and disainanenl if ve do nol incIude Russia,
vhich is one of lhe liggesl nucIeai poveis` avaiIalIe fion |rcn-
|in.ru/cng/spcccncs/2006/07/12/1443_|qpc82916_108525.sn|n|.
54. Opening Renaiks al Meeling vilh Heads of lhe Rus3
sian NucIeai Weapons and NucIeai Lneigy ConpIexes, Nctc-
411
Ogarqctc, }une 9, 2OO6, Iiesidenl of Russia OfhciaI Wel IoilaI,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn|in.ru/cng/|cx|/spcccncs/2006/06/09/1952_
|qpc82912|qpc82913_106757.sn|n|.
55. Nali AlduIIaev, Russia Wonl Seek NucIeai Iaiily vilh
Wesl, Dcfcnsc Ncus, ApiiI 1O, 2OO6, p. 12.
56. VIadinii Iulin, AnnuaI Addiess lo lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy
of lhe Russian Iedeialion, May 1O, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn-
|in.ru/cng/spcccncs/2006/05/10/1823_|qpc70029|qpc82912_105566.
sn|n|.
57. The uIava ShouId e Iul in lhe KienIin: Il Does Nol
IIy, Mcs|cts|iq Kcnscnc|c|s, Augusl 2, 2OO9.
58. AIeksei Iyshkov, Ieiezagiyzka-Snena IoIiliki iIi Snena
Riloiiki` |ztcs|ia, }uIy 5, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.iztcs|ia.ru/
ccnncn|/ar|ic|c3130323/.
59. VIadinii Iulin, AnnuaI Addiess lo lhe IedeiaI AssenlIy
of lhe Russian Iedeialion, May 1O, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|rcn-
|in.ru/cng/spcccncs/2006/05/10/1823_|qpc70029|qpc82912_105566.
sn|n|.
6O. See, foi exanpIe, Rolin Cook and Roleil McNanaia, Is
il Tine lo DisnanlIe lhe CoId Wais NucIeai Legacy` |inan-
cia| Tincs, }une 23, 2OO5, and DaiyI C. KinlaII, SnaII, IoilalIe,
DeadIy, and Alsuid: TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons, |n|crna|icna|
Hcra|d Triounc, May 3, 2OO5.
61. NikoIai Ioioskov, O IiolIene Sokiasheniya Taklichesk3
ogo Yadeinogo Oiyzhiya, |trcpcis|aqa 8czcpasncs|. Scoq|iqa,
Ozcn|i, Prcgnczq, avaiIalIe fion uuu.inicn.ru/prcduc|/curcscc/
s|1tp11.n|n#1.
62. OIga OIikei and Tanya ChaiIick-IaIey, Asscssing Russias
Dcc|inc. Trcnds and |np|ica|icns fcr |nc Uni|cd S|a|cs and |nc U.S. Air
|crcc, Sanla Monica, CA: RAND, 2OO2, pp. 81-83.
63. Iieiie CIaude NoIin, Tnc Sccuri|q cf lMD Rc|a|cd Ma|c-
ria| in Russia, iusseIs, eIgiun: NATO IaiIianenlaiy Assen3
lIy, Novenlei 2OO5, p. 7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.na|c-pa.in|/Dcfau||.
412
asp?SHORTCUT=695, }ohn Ldvaids and }ack Kenp, eds., Rus-
sias lrcng Dircc|icn. lna| |nc Uni|cd S|a|cs Can and Sncu|d Dc9
Nev Yoik: CounciI on Ioieign ReIalions, 2OO6, pp. 48-49.
64. Ofhce of lhe Assislanl Secielaiy of Defense, IulIic Af3
faiis, U.S. Depailnenl of Defense, Teslinony foi lhe Senale Ioi3
eign ReIalions Connillee iegaiding lhe Moscov Tiealy as De3
Iiveied ly Secielaiy of Defense DonaId H. RunsfeId, }uIy 17,
2OO2, avaiIalIe fion uuu.dcfcnsc|in|.ni|/spcccncs/2002/s20020717-
sccdcf1.n|n|.
65. Ciled in Wade oese, Deepei NucIeai Culs UnIikeIy foi
Nov, Arns Ccn|rc| Tcdaq, VoI. 35, No. 6, }uIy/Augusl 2OO5, p. 36.
66. Whilhei U.S.-Russia ReIalions` Cainegie InleinalionaI
NonpioIifeialion Confeience, ApiiI 6, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
carncgiccndcuncn|.crg/ctcn|s/?fa=ctcn|Dc|ai|cid=1305cprcg=zgp
cprcj=z|cd.
67. Iiess liiehng ly NATO Spokesnan }anes Appalhuiai
al lhe InfoinaI neeling of NATO Ioieign Minisleis - TaIIinn,
Lslonia, ApiiI 22, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.na|c.in|/cps/cn/S|D-
|0A8|737-39D940A7/na|c|itc/cpinicns_62906.n|n.
68. Aishad Mohanned and David iunnslion, U.S. sig3
naIs ils nucIeai ains slay in Luiope foi nov, Rcu|crs, ApiiI 22,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.uasning|cnpcs|.ccn/up-dqn/ccn|cn|/ar-
|ic|c/2010/04/22/AR2010042202712.n|n|.
69. Iiess liiehng ly NATO Spokesnan }anes Appalhuiai
al lhe InfoinaI neeling of NATO Ioieign Minisleis - TaIIinn, Ls3
lonia.
7O. See, foi exanpIe, Seigei . Ivanov, Speech al lhe 46lh
Munich Secuiily Confeience, Munich Secuiily Confeience, Iel3
iuaiy 6, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.sccuri|qccnfcrcncc.dc/|tanct-Scr-
gcq-8.457.0.n|n|?c|=1.
71. Ciled in Roleil S. Noiiis and Hans M. Kiislensen, U.S.
NucIeai Ioices, 2OO4, 8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, VoI. 6O, No.
3, May/}une 2OO4, p. 69.
413
72. Russia Wains U.S. aloul Weapons in Space, Associ3
aled Iiess, }une 3, 2OO5, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nsnoc.nsn.ccn/
id/8073961/.
73. TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons Nexl Taigel foi Ains ConlioI
- Laviov, R|A Nctcs|i, Maich 26, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/
russia/20100326/158322926.n|n|.
74. VIadinii Kozin, TNW: III-Conceived Messages fion lhe
Ioieign Minisleis of IoIand and Sveden, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Iel3
iuaiy 21, 2O1O. See aIso Vikloi Ruchkin, OId onls and Nev
IiolIens, Krasnaqa Ztczda, Maich 16, 2O1O.
75. iilain, Iiance Musl le IncIuded in Weapons TaIks:
Russian CeneiaI, Agence-Iiance Iiesse, Seplenlei 3, 2OO7,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.francc24.ccn/francc24Puo|ic/cn/arcnitcs/ncus/
ucr|d/20070903-Russia-|rancc-8ri|ain-nuc|car-pcucr-rcducc-ucap-
cns.pnp.
76. Russian MiIilaiy Chief Defends Nonslialegic Nukes,
CIolaI Secuiily Nevsviie, Decenlei 17, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion gsn.
n|i.crg/gsn/nu_20081217_4724.pnp.
77. These pioposaIs aie ievieved in }ohan eigens, MiIes A.
Ionpei, WiIIian Iollei, and NikoIai Sokov, Rcducing and Rcgu-
|a|ing Tac|ica| (Ncn-s|ra|cgic) Nuc|car lcapcns in |urcpc. Mcting
|cruard?, Washinglon, DC: The }anes Mailin Cenlei foi Nonpio3
Iifeialion Sludies, ApiiI 2O1O, p. 13.
78. |oid., p. 42.
79. Calheiine M. KeIIehei and Scoll L. Waiien, Celling lo
Zeio Slails Heie: TaclicaI NucIeai Weapons, Arns Ccn|rc| Tcdaq9
Oclolei 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arnsccn|rc|.crg/ac|/2009_10/
Kc||cncr.
8O. Mailin Malishak, U.S. CouId IuII ack Luiope-ased
Nukes, Slale Depailnenl OfhciaI Says, CIolaI Secuiily Nevs3
viie, Augusl 5, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.g|coa|sccuri|qncusuirc.
crg/gsn/nu_20090805_4929.pnp.
414
81. Minisliy of Ioieign Affaiis of lhe Russian Iedeialion,
Tiansciipl of Renaiks and Response lo Media Queslions ly
Russian Minislei of Ioieign Affaiis Seigey Laviov al }oinl Iiess
Confeience vilh Minislei of Ioieign Affaiis RadosIav Sikoiski,
Waisav, IoIand, Seplenlei 11, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nid.
ru/orp_4.nsf/c78a48070f128a7o43256999005ocoo3/cd9a026910co657o
c32574c3003c69a2?OpcnDccuncn|.
82. Iedoi Lukyanov, Lasl Tiealy: Russia and Uniled Slales
Have Lxhausled IolenliaI foi Tvo-Way NucIeai Disainanenl,
Vrcnqa Nctcs|cq, Maich 3O, 2O1O.
83. Seigei Kaiaganov, NucIeai Iiee WoiId is a Dangeious
Concepl Thal Oughl lo le Alandoned, Rcssiqs|aqa Gazc|a, >*+&6
23, 2O1O.
84. Iiess iiehng ly NATO Spokesnan }anes Appalhuiai
al lhe InfoinaI Meeling of NATO Ioieign Minisleis - TaIIinn, Ls3
lonia.
85. Ceoige I. ShuIlz, Sidney D. DieII, and }anes L. Coodly,
eds., Rcq|jati| Rctisi|cd. S|cps Tcuard a lcr|d |rcc cf Nuc|car lcap-
cns, Slanfoid, CA: Hoovei Inslilulion Iiess, 2OO8. See aIso Ceoige
I. ShuIlz, WiIIian }. Ieiiy, Heniy A. Kissingei, and San Nunn,
A WoiId Iiee of NucIeai Weapons, Tnc la|| S|rcc| ]curna|9
}anuaiy 4, 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.fcn|.crg/issucs/i|cn.pnp?i|cn_
id=2252cissuc_id=54, Ceoige I. ShuIlz, WiIIian }. Ieiiy, Heniy A.
Kissingei, and San Nunn, Tovaid a NucIeai-Iiee WoiId, Tnc
la|| S|rcc| ]curna|, }anuaiy 15, 2OO8, avaiIalIe fion cn|inc.usj.ccn/
puo|ic/ar|ic|c_prin|/S8120036422673589947.n|n|.
86. Andrei Zolotov Jr., Three Hours with Vladimir Putin, Russia
Prohle, September 12, 2008, available from www.russiaprohle.org/page.
php?pageidPolitics&articleida1221223275.
87. Iulin CouId Inagine a Russia vilh no NucIeai Weap3
ons, Dcu|cnc lc||c, }une 1O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.du-ucr|d.
dc/du/ar|ic|c/0,,4315776,00.n|n|.
88. IaveI IeIgenhauei, Russia WiII Relain as Many NucIeai
Weapons as IossilIe, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, ApiiI 9, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.jancs|cun.crg/prcgrans/cdn/sing|c/?|x_||ncus58||_
415
ncus5D=34834c|x_||ncus58oac|Pid5D=407cnc_cacnc=1,
iian Whilnoie, Ains ConlioI Redux: Lel The Canes e3
gin, RIL/RL, ApiiI 24, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.rfcr|.crg/
ccn|cn|/Arns_Ccn|rc|_Rcdux_|c|_Tnc_Gancs_8cgin/1615455.
n|nI, and MichaeI ohn, Iinished Iion lhe START, Mcsccu
Tincs, }une 11, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|ncncsccu|incs.ccn/ar-
|ic|c/1016/42/378486.n|n.
89. Seigey Rogov, Kcnncrsan|, ApiiI 15, 2OO9.
9O. Rossia ne ydel YveIichival IolenziaI Yadeinogo Sdei3
zhivaniya, Rcssiis|aqa Gazc|a, Maich 5, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
rg.ru/2010/03/05/rcssiqa-ancns.n|n|.
91. iell Young and Denis Dyonkin, Russia Cives Caulious
Response lo Olana NucIeai IIan, Rcu|crs, ApiiI 2O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.rcu|crs.ccn/ar|ic|c/ucr|dNcus/idUS|K21213720090420.
92. Mosl of Russians againsl nucIeai disainanenl - poII,
R|A Nctcs|i, }uIy 15, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion cn.rian.ru/n|i|arq_
ncus/20100715/159825463.n|n|.
93. Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr|, pp. 48-49.
417
6L4:=82 P
589 !=42= 45? 5;5:2;7-@824=-;5<
!3-=;2! ;2 !8:424=8 =4/78!d
!"%AB%. CD 6'GH$E$
-5=2;?36=-;5
In lhe spiing of 2O1O, lhe dipIonalic alnospheie
vas an appaienl success sloiy foi lhose seeking lo ie3
duce nucIeai dangei. The signing of lhe Nev Slialegic
Ains Reduclion Tiealy (START) agieenenl in ApiiI
2O1O look pIace aInosl exaclIy 1 yeai aflei Iiesidenl
aiack Olanas Iandnaik speech caIIing foi nucIeai
aloIilion. Nev START vas foIIoved ly lhe success3
fuI oulcone of lhe NucIeai Non-IioIifeialion Tiealy
(NIT) ieviev confeience in May 2O1O, in naiked
conliasl lo lhe aciinonious denouenenl of lhe 2OO5
neeling.
1
In addilion, a U.S. NucIeai Iosluie Reviev
and a ievised Russian MiIilaiy Docliine nade pulIic
in lhe spiing of 2O1O aIso seened lo ieduce lhe ioIe of
nucIeai veapons in lhe iespeclive niIilaiy slialegies
and nalionaI secuiily poIicies of lhe lvo slales. Russia,
lhe Uniled Slales, and lhe Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oi3
ganizalion (NATO) laIked of coopeialion on nissiIe
defense and olhei issues, and Olana pushed foivaid
an anlilious agenda of nuIliIaleiaI conlioI neasuies,
incIuding ialihcalion of lhe Conpiehensive Tesl an
Tiealy (CT) and gIolaI suppoil foi a IissiIe MaleiiaIs
Culoff Tiealy (IMCT). OnIy Mauiice ChevaIiei, slioII3
ing and singing on a louIevaid in Iaiis, vas Iacking
foi suilalIe lackgiound nusic.
DipIonalic alnospheies cone and go, lul lhe lank3
eis of poIicy and slialegy denand paynenl in haid
418
cuiiency. Russian-Aneiican slialegic nucIeai ains
ieduclions neilhei piecIude, noi guaianlee, favoialIe
*+/(*#7.( 1/+ 826.&60.#+06 ,&(0+808#-. /+ -/-*+/6&13
eialion. This discussion hisl ievievs lhe Nev START
agieenenl and ils inpIicalions foi deleiience slaliIily
and ains conlioI. Second, ve deveIop and lesl lhe vi3
aliIily of a hypolhelicaI, posl-Nev START agieenenl
vilh signihcanlIy Iovei nunleis of opeialionaIIy de3
pIoyed slialegic nucIeai veapons. Thiid, ve nodeI a
consliained nucIeai nonpioIifeialion iegine, lased
on lhe posl-Nev START agieenenl desciiled eaiIiei.
A fouilh seclion sunnaiizes peilinenl concIusions.
:;7-6R
5%b !=42= O%", ?0.%D
U.S. Iiesidenl Olana and Russian Iiesidenl Dni3
liy Medvedev signed lhe Nev START agieenenl
ApiiI 8, 2O1O, in Iiague, Czech RepulIic. RepIacing
lhe START I lhal had aIieady expiied in Decenlei
2OO9, lhe Nev START agieenenl caIIed foi ieduc3
lions in lhe nunlei of depIoyed Iong iange nucIeai
veapons and lheii deIiveiy syslens: inleiconlinenlaI
nissiIes and heavy lonleis. Iail of lhe iesel in
U.S.-Russian ieIalions foIIoving lhe aciinony of lhe
VIadinii Iulin and Ceoige W. ush piesidencies, lhe
Nev START agieenenl vas seen as a pieIude lo fui3
lhei Russian and Aneiican nucIeai foice ieduclions
and lo lioadei coopeialion lelveen Moscov and
Washinglon on olhei nucIeai ieIaled nalleis, incIud3
ing nonpioIifeialion.
Undei lhe nev START agieenenl, each slale
vouId le iequiied lo ieduce ils nunlei of depIoyed
slialegic vaiheads lo a naxinun of 1,55O and ils
419
nunlei of Iauncheis lo a naxinun of 8OO - 7OO de3
pIoyed - vilhin 7 yeais of liealy ialihcalion and enliy
inlo foice.
2
In lheoiy, lhese Iinils veie leIov lhe ceiI3
ing of 2,2OO sel ly lhe pieceding Slialegic Offensive
Reduclions Tiealy (SORT) in 2OO2 foi depIoyed sliale3
gic vaiheads, and aIso leIov lhe START I naxinun
Iinil of 1,6OO foi Iong iange deIiveiy syslens. Due lo
idiosynciasies in lhe counling iuIes foi veapons and
lhe piioi ieduclions ly lolh slales in lheii nunlei of
depIoyed veapons and Iauncheis, neilhei lhe Uniled
Slales noi Russia vouId le iequiied lo nake diaslic
changes in eilhei exisling oi pIanned nucIeai foices.
3

Celling lo Nev START fion vheie lhey legan in
2OO9 iequiied lhe Uniled Slales and Russia lo nake
(/8# 7/8*+/8&(#( &-(&,# 0-, /2.(&,# /1 ."# 07.206
START negolialion piocess.
4
Russia nade concessions
on lhe issues of nissiIe defenses and upIoad polen3
liaIs foi sloied, lul nol depIoyed, vaiheads. Wilh
iespecl lo nissiIe defenses, Russian liealy negolialois
allenpled lo ollain an Aneiican connilnenl lo Iinil
fuluie nissiIe defense depIoynenls in Luiope, and/
oi lo invoIve Russia in lhe pIanning and inpIenenl3
ing of fuluie defenses. The liealy incIudes slalenenls
allesling lo lhe inpoilance of lhe ieIalionship lelveen
offensive and defensive veapons, lul il pIaces no
Iinils on fuluie U.S. laIIislic nissiIe defense (MD)
nodeinizalion oi depIoynenl.
5
!"&( 7/8*+/8&(# '0(
nade possilIe ly lhe piioi U.S. decision, apail fion
START negolialions, in lhe faII of 2OO9 lo ielool lhe
Ceoige W. ush adninislialions pIan lo depIoy nis3
siIe defenses in IoIand and in lhe Czech RepulIic, cie3
aling lension vilh Russia lhioughoul 2OO7 and 2OO8.
Wiiling in lhe la|| S|rcc| ]curna| in May, 2O1O, U.S.
Secielaiy of Defense Roleil M. Cales enphasized lhal
lhe Nev START viII nol consliain Aneiican defenses:
42O
The U.S. viII conlinue lo depIoy and inpiove lhe in3
leiceplois lhal defend oui honeIand~lhose lased in
CaIifoinia and AIaska. We aie aIso noving foivaid
vilh pIans lo heId nissiIe defense syslens lo piolecl
oui lioops and pailneis in Luiope, lhe MiddIe Lasl,
and Noilheasl Asia againsl lhe dangeious lhieals
posed ly iogue nalions Iike Noilh Koiea and Iian.
6

The queslion of upIoad polenliaIs iaised sone
seiious slialegic issues. Russian START negolialois,
doullIessIy ieecling lhe suspicions of lheii niIilaiy,
veie conceined lhal lhe Uniled Slales couId hisl ie3
nove dovnIoaded veapons consislenlIy vilh START
iequiienenls and lhen, having decided lo aliogale
."# .+#0.5 0. 0 60.#+ ,0.#9 +0*&,65 2*6/0, ."# (08#
veapons lo achieve a suige oi even a posilion of ovei3
vheIning nucIeai supeiioiily againsl Russia.
7
!"#/3
ielicaIIy, Russia vouId have a siniIai oplion lo vilh3
,+0' 1+/8 ."# .+#0.5 0-, +#6/0, *+#%&/2(65 ,&(0+8#,
veapons. Conpaied lo lhe Aneiican nucIeai foice
nodeinizalion piogian, lhe Russian piogian vas
#)*#7.#, ./ *+/%&,# 1#'#+ /**/+.2-&.&#( 1/+ .&8#65
ieIoad on accounl of lhe dispaiily in suilalIe Iaunch3
eis, especiaIIy in sulnaiine Iaunched laIIislic nissiIes
(SLMs). Russias nucIeai laIIislic nissiIe sulnaiine
(SSN) and SLM nodeinizalion piogians feII veII
lehind scheduIe in lhe pieceding decade, and lhe lesl
iesuIls foi lhe pIanned uIava SLM, lo le depIoyed
'&." ."# -#'#(. 8crcq cIass of SSNs, have leen dis3
appoinling.
8
Russias conceins aloul U.S. ieIalive nucIeai ad3
vanlage veie nol enliieIy lased on aigunenls aloul
upIoad polenliaIs foi cuiienl oi fuluie Iauncheis.
Thiee olhei issues pIayed inlo Russian pessinisn on
lhis poinl. The hisl, aIieady acknovIedged, vas lhe
421
U.S. pIan foi nissiIe defenses depIoyed in Luiope,
adjusled ly lhe Olana adninislialion lo a nev ap3
pioach lhal vas piesunalIy noie acceplalIe lo Rus3
sia lhan vas lhe oiiginaI ush pIan. The ievised Lu3
iopean MD pIan vas a phased, adaplive appioach
luiIl aiound sea and Iand-lased nissiIe inleiceplois
foi lhealei oi shoilei iange laIIislic nissiIes Iaunched
fion Iian oi olhei MiddIe Laslein Iocalions.
9
AIlhough
lhe Olana Luiopean MD pIan vas appaienlIy Iess
conlenlious lhan lhe ush pIan, Russian pessinisls
veie nol enliieIy noIIihed. They feaied lhal lhe ie3
vised MD pIan Iefl open lhe possiliIily of fuluie
#-"0-7#8#-.( ./ ."# 0-.&8&((&6# (5(.#8( ."0. '/26,
degiade oi even nuIIify Russias nucIeai deleiienl.
1O

The cuiienl piolaliIily of nucIeai vai lelveen lhe
Uniled Slales and Russia is acknovIedged ly Ieadeis
of lolh slales as leing Iov lo nonexislenl, lul Russia
nighl sliII feai fuluie poIilicaI coeicion on lhe pail of
lhe Uniled Slales as suppoiled ly inpioved slialegic
defenses.
11
Russian doulls aloul U.S. inlenlions couId
le incieased if inpioved Aneiican and/oi NATO an3
linissiIe defenses veie conpIenenled ly nevIy de3
pIoyed syslens foi non-nucIeai pionpl gIolaI sliike.
60.F%."'0.$E $.+ 5*(E%$# ?%"%##%.(%D
A second souice of Russian concein aloul lhe ap3
peaiance of U.S.-Russian nucIeai paiily, and aloul lhe
fuluie vialiIily of Russias nucIeai deleiienl, iesided
in Aneiican pIans foi inpioving non-nucIeai gIolaI
sliike capaliIilies. The Ceoige W. ush adninislialion
had aIieady inlioduced lhe nolion of a nev liiad of
7/-%#-.&/-06 0-, -276#0+ /11#-(&%# '#0*/-(9 8&((&6#
defenses, and inpioved nucIeai infiasliucluie. The
Ooana Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr| (NPR) cf 2010
422
noled lhal U.S. poIicy vas geneiaIIy lo ieduce ieIi3
ance on nucIeai veapons ovei line, and specihcaIIy
lo foiego nucIeai veapons as an oplion foi ielaIialion
againsl non-nucIeai veapons slales lhal veie fuIIy in
conpIiance vilh lhe NIT.
12
IiesunalIy lhis nucIeai
alslinence vouId even hoId in lhe face of allacks ly
a non-nucIeai slale vilh chenicaI oi lioIogicaI veap3
ons, aIlhough lhe 2O1O NIR incIuded an escape cIause
foi any fuluie lioIogicaI allacks vilh calasliophic
consequences. AIlhough lhe Olana NIR feII shoil of
a connilnenl lo no hisl use of nucIeai veapons
2-,#+ 0-5 7/-,&.&/-(9 &. ,&, 7"0+. 0 *+#1#++#, 7/2+(#
./'0+, ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( /-65 1/+ ,#.#++#-7#
of a nucIeai allack oi in ielaIialion foi one.
13
DaiyI C.
KinlaII, execulive diiecloi of lhe Ains ConlioI As3
socialion, offeied a favoialIe appiaisaI of lhe Olana
NIR foi naiioving lhe condilions undei vhich lhe
Uniled Slales nighl use nucIeai veapons, and foi ie3
ducing lhe oveiaII saIience of nucIeai veapons in U.S.
secuiily poIicy. ul he aIso caulioned againsl NIR eu3
phoiia vilh iespecl lo ains conlioI:
Assigning U.S. nucIeai veapons any ioIe leyond 'coie
nucIeai deleiience' is lolh unnecessaiy and coun3
leipioduclive. The Uniled Slales, as veII as Russia,
shouId adopl a soIe puipose' poIicy nov ialhei lhan
Ialei. Reseiving lhe oplion lo use nucIeai foice in non-
-276#0+ (&.20.&/-( *+/%&,#( 6&..6# /+ -/ ,#.#++#-. %062#
al high cosl. Il undeinines lhe ciediliIily of conven3
.&/-06 ,#.#++#-7#9 7/8*6&70.#( /2+ -/-*+/6&1#+0.&/- ,&3
pIonacy and can le used ly olhei counliies lo juslify
lhe puisuil oi inpiovenenl of nucIeai veapons.
14
The Olana adninislialions inlenl lo de-enpha3
size lhe ioIe of nucIeai veapons in U.S. poIilicaI and
niIilaiy slialegy inviles lhe deveIopnenl and even3
423
.206 ,#*6/58#-. /1 '#0*/-( 1/+ 7/-%#-.&/-06 *+/8*.
gIolaI sliike.
15
Accoiding lo lhe 2O1O NIR, lhe De3
pailnenl of Defense viII ielain a naigin alove lhe
nininun foice iequiied foi nucIeai deleiience foi
lhe possilIe addilion of non-nucIeai pionpl-gIolaI
sliike capaliIilies lhal vouId le accounlalIe undei
lhe Nev START liealy.
16
START-accounlalIe non-nu3
cIeai pionpl gIolaI sliike syslens couId incIude con3
venlionaIIy-ained inleiconlinenlaI laIIislic nissiIes
(ICMs), SLMs, oi puipose-luiIl aeiospace pIanes.
In lheoiy, convenlionaI piecision guidance sys3
lens (ICS) vouId peinil lineIy allacks on leiioiisl
lases, Iaunch-ieady nissiIe paiks, veapons of nass
desliuclion (WMD) sloiage siles, oi olhei line uigenl
oi inpoilanl laigels vilhoul lhe coIIaleiaI danage
and noiaI oppioliiun of nucIeai veapons. Russian
negolialois al Nev START, and in olhei Russian and
U.S. discussions vilh lhe Ceoige W. ush and Olana
adninislialions, had expiessed ieseivalions aloul
convenlionaI ICS veapons nounled on laIIislic nis3
(&6#( /+ /."#+ 602-7"#+( ."0. 06(/ 70++&#, (/8# *0+. /1
lhe U.S. nucIeai aisenaI. One oljeclion vas lhal con3
venlionaIIy ained Iong-iange laIIislic nissiIes nighl
pose a lhieal lo nucIeai ciisis slaliIily. NucIeai vaining
and iesponse syslens nighl nol le alIe lo dislinguish
lelveen a convenlionaI ICS Iaunch and a nucIeai hisl
sliike. In iesponse lo Russian conceins, Nev START
negolialois agieed lo a liealy piovision lhal iequiies
lhe deconnissioning of one U.S. nucIeai nissiIe foi
eveiy convenlionaI ICS veapon depIoyed.
17

In addilion lo lhe piolIen of nucIeai ciisis slaliI3
ily lhal is possilIy inpIicil in convenlionaI ICS sys3
lens, anolhei Russian concein is lhal U.S. advanced
convenlionaI ICS syslens couId le conlined vilh a
-276#0+ /11#-(# 0-, '&." &8*+/%#, 8&((&6# ,#1#-(#(
424
lo cieale a convenlionaI-nucIeai hisl sliike capaliIily
againsl Russia. AIlhough lhis possiliIily nighl seen
paianoid in a line vhen lhe Uniled Slales and Rus3
sia have an ofhciaI non-hosliIe poIilicaI ieIalionship,
lhe scenaiio of an Aneiican nucIeai hisl sliike capa3
liIily has ieceived cIose allenlion fion U.S. anaIysls
and fion Russian niIilaiy expeils.
18
Hovevei, poIilics
diives slialegy~incIuding doneslic poIilics in lhe
Uniled Slales and Russia. In lhe case of Russia, dones3
lic poIilics incIudes a CeneiaI Slaff and ofhcei coips
,#.#+8&-#, ./ *+#(#+%# ."#&+ (.0.2( 0-, */'#+ &- ."#
face of lhiealened niIilaiy nodeinizalion lo inpiove
Russias convenlionaI foices. This doneslic poIilicaI
delale vilhin Russia aloul convenlionaI foice nod3
einizalion is a lhiid foice, in addilion lo U.S. nissiIe
defenses and convenlionaI ICS syslens, lhal nakes
sone Russians Iess ieIaxed aloul lhe appeaiance of
nucIeai-slialegic paiily.
2*,,'$. :%#,A%("'F%,D
The Russian iuIing landen of Iiesidenl Medve3
dev and Iiine Minislei VIadinii Iulin, aIong vilh
Russian Defense Minislei AnaloIy Seidyukov, have
iecognized lhe need foi niIilaiy iefoin in oidei lo
inpiove lhe quaIily of Russias Ained Ioices. In3
piovenenls aie needed in lolh convenlionaI and nu3
cIeai foices, lo le suie.
19
ul, conpaied lo lhe foinei
Soviel Union, lhe decIine in lhe quaIily of Russias
convenlionaI foices ieIalive lo lhose of lhe Uniled
Slales and NATO has leen noie olvious and nolice3
alIe. IiolIens incIude lolh lhe quanlily and quaIily
of enIisled peisonneI, a lop-heavy ofhcei coips, and
insufhcienl nunleis of nodein veapons and houis
of liaining foi peisonneI in lhe Ciound Ioices, Navy,
425
and Aii Ioice.
2O
Russias need foi niIilaiy nodeiniza3
lion is nol pionpled excIusiveIy ly peiceived lhieals
fion ils veslein and soulhein diieclions. Russias
slialegic easl faces a gioving niIilaiy and econonic
povei in China, vhose ovn niIilaiy nodeinizalion
has noved lhe ILA |IeopIes Lileialion Ainyj fion
a nass indusliiaI ainy luiIl lo hghl peopIes vai lo a
foice seeking lo ieain as an advanced convenlionaI
1/+7# 0-, 7/-,27. ."#&+ /'- %#+(&/- /1 -#.37#-.+&7
vaifaie.
21
The Russian Defense Minisliys pIan foi nod3
einizalion and iefoin is anlilious on papei. Il an3
licipales a lioad liansfoinalion, depailing fion lhe
hisloiicaI expeiience of lhe Soviel Union in lhe 2Olh
cenluiy vilh nass noliIizalion, consciipl lased foic3
#(9 0-, .+0&-#, 1/+ *+/.+07.#, &-.#+(.0.# '0+( /1 0..+&3
lion.
22
Inslead, fuluie enphasis viII le pIaced on lhe
ciealion of Iighl, iapidIy depIoyalIe, and eIile unils
of peinanenl ieadiness, slaffed ly speciaIIy liained
conliacl soIdieis inslead of diaflees. AddilionaIIy:
lhe liigade, inslead of lhe division, viII le lhe focaI
opeialionaI-laclicaI unil of aclion, lhe ofhcei coips
viII le dovnsized, and, enphasis viII le pIaced on
inpioving lhe connand-conlioI and nelvoik cenliic
vaifaie capaliIilies of ieady foices.
23
!"# */(.3+#1/+8
liigades viII le lhe diiveis of a nev Russian niIilaiy
lhal is liained foi lhe kinds of vais lhal Russia is noie
IikeIy lo have lo hghl in lhe 21sl cenluiy: snaII vais,
incIuding counleiinsuigency and counleileiioiisn
opeialions, neai oi vilhin Russias loideis.
Skeplics queslion vhelhei Russia has lhe nec3
essaiy hnanciaI iesouices lo fund lhis piogian foi
8&6&.0+5 .+0-(1/+80.&/-9 0-, /."#+( "0%# */&-.#, ./
denogiaphic piolIens in naking avaiIalIe lhe nun3
leis of eIigilIe conliacl lioops as veII as diaflees lo
426
achieve liansfoinalive goaIs in lhe nexl decade.
24
ul
lhis skeplicisn is, anong sone quaileis vilhin Rus3
sia, fueIed ly lhe seIf-inleiesl of a lIoaled niIilaiy lu3
ieauciacy lhal seeks lo pieseive posilions foi geneiaI
ofhceis ly iesisling iefoin. One slialegy foi iesislance
&( ./ 0,"#+# (.+&7.65 ./ #)*&+#, ."+#0. 0((#((8#-.( 0-,
ielio geopoIilics, dehning NATO and lhe Uniled Slales
as najoi enenies of Russia. Lven lhe ievised Russian
MiIilaiy Docliine of 2O1O, vhich nay suggesl a Iessei
enphasis on ils nucIeai veapons foi coveiing a vide
vaiiely of conlingencies, conpaied lo eaiIiei veisions
(and lhus, nay le noie conpalilIe vilh lhe lhiusl of
Olanas NIR lhan lhose eaiIiei edilions of Russian
niIilaiy docliine), neveilheIess incIudes NATO en3
Iaigenenl anong lhe dangeis lhal Russia nusl lake
seiiousIy and foi vhich il nusl pIan.
25

Russian geoslialegic lhinking veIcones lhe enei3
gence of a nuIlipoIai inleinalionaI oidei in vhich lhe
Ieading niIilaiy and econonic slale aclois ieach de3
cisions ly consensus.
26
Ranking highesl anong Rus3
sias slale piioiilies aie lhe giovlh of ils econony and
0- &-7+#0(# &- ."# +#(*#7. 0-, ,#1#+#-7# 077/+,#, ./
Russian foieign and secuiily poIicy, especiaIIy in ils
neai alioad of foinei Soviel slales, and pailicuIaiIy
in Luiope.
27
Iion lhis peispeclive, Russias niIilaiy
cIash vilh Ceoigia in Augusl 2OO8 denonslialed
Russias sensilivily, nol onIy lo Ceoigias peiceived
piovocalions, lul aIso lo lhe Russian Ieadeis viev of
Ceoigia as a Tiojan hoise foi U.S. and NATO poIilicaI
inuence and niIilaiy penelialion. AIlhough Russias
convenlionaI foices iapidIy oveipoveied Ceoigian
+#(&(.0-7# 0-, ,#760+#, 0 */(.'0+ (#*0+0.&(8 1+/8
Ceoigia on lehaIf of Alkhazia and Soulh Osselia as an
acconpIished facl, olvious piolIens naiked Russias
niIilaiy peifoinance duiing lhis liief and one-sided
427
vai. The conicl aIso seived as a vaining lo Ceoigia
aloul pooiIy lined and iII-consideied niIilaiy liink3
nanship. The vai adveilised hov fai avay Russias
7/-%#-.&/-06 8&6&.0+5 1/+7#( 0+# 1+/8 ."/(# (2&.#, ./
lhe aspiialions of a najoi iegionaI oi gIolaI niIilaiy
povei.
Anong sone Russian goveinnenl ofhciaIs and
olhei eIiles, il is nov iecognized lhal lioad changes in
foieign poIicy nusl acconpany, if nol piecede, lhe ac3
conpIishnenl of signihcanl niIilaiy iefoin. On lhis
poinl, in May 2O1O lhe Russian edilion of Ncusucc|
nagazine pulIished a diafl docunenl fion lhe Rus3
sian foieign ninisliy lhal vas piepaied eaiIiei in Iel3
iuaiy foi Iiesidenl Medvedev.
28
Accoiding lo piess
iepoils, lhe foieign ninisliy docunenl caIIs foi a nev
Russian foieign poIicy, enphasizing inpioved ieIa3
lions vilh lhe Uniled Slales and lhe Luiopean Union
(LU) in oidei lo expedile lechnoIogy deveIopnenl
and a noie favoialIe cIinale foi inveslnenl in Rus3
sia.
29
Dnilii Tienin of lhe Moscov Cainegie Cenlei,
viiling in lhe Mcsccu Tincs9 0((#((#, ."# ,+01. ,/73
liine and ils inpIicalions lhus:
Russia is Iosing giound in lhe gIolaI pecking oidei ly
faIIing lehind in leins of ils indusliiaI, lechnoIogicaI,
and scienlihc capaliIilies. AII lhe pioceeds fion Caz3
pions saIes nolvilhslanding, Russia is soieIy Iacking
vhal il lakes lo le a najoi gIolaI econonic and po3
IilicaI foice in lhe 21sl cenluiy. ReIalive eneigy alun3
dance and nucIeai aisenaIs aie sinpIy nol enough.
3O
>- 06.#+-0.&%# *#+(*#7.&%# /- ."# ,+01. ,/728#-.
vas piovided ly Andiei Tsygankov, vho iegaided ils
inleipielalion as a pio-Weslein shifl in Russian foi3
eign poIicy as nol incoiiecl lul insufhcienl. Tsy3
gankov aigues lhal Russias iappiochenenl vilh lhe
428
Wesl is laking pIace vilhin a Iaigei conlexl of a noie
decenliaIized, and Iess Wesl-cenliic, voiId oidei. As
he puls il, lhe posl-Weslein voiId has in sloie nol
/-65 #)*#+.&(# 0-, 70*&.06 1+/8 0,%0-7#, 7/2-.+&#(9
lul (aIso) nev oppoilunilies foi inpioving Russias
veIfaie and secuiily in Asia, lhe MiddIe Lasl and Lalin
Aneiica.
31
Ldvaid Lozansky aIso suppoils lhe idea
lhal Russias diive foi econonic and lechnoIogy nod3
einizalion is an aII-azinulhs one. The docunenl, in
his judgnenl, is oiienled lovaid Wesl, Lasl, Soulh,
Noilh, and any olhei diieclion lhal has a polenliaI foi
pionoling Russian inleiesls.
32
Iulling lhe docunenl
in hisloiicaI peispeclive, Slephen }. Iank caulions
againsl euphoiia vilh iegaid lo Weslein expeclalions
foi Russian foieign poIicy liansfoinalion:
Indeed, il is a line-honoied liadilion of Russian and
Soviel foieign poIicy lo signaI a delenle lased on con3
non econonic inleiesls, lhe nain goaI of vhich is lhal
Russia ollains foieign lechnoIogy (vhich, lecause of
&.( #7/-/8&73*/6&.&706 (.+27.2+#9 &. 70--/. /*.&80665
uliIize) in ieluin foi shan oi cosnelic concessions.
33
Thus Russias nucIeai and convenlionaI foice nod3
einizalion depend lolh upon cIosing lhe gap lelveen
Russian peifoinance and lhal of lhe olhei Ieading
slale econonies.
The concIusion of Nev START aIso piovides syn3
loIic lenehls foi Russia, ly liealing Russia as an equaI
negolialing pailnei vilh lhe Uniled Slales foi pui3
poses of eslalIishing a hieiaichy of nucIeai veapons
slales. So eslalIished, Russia has an addilionaI hand
lo pIay al lhe head of lhe lalIe anong C-8 (lhe Uniled
Slales, }apan, Ceinany, Iiance, lhe Uniled Kingdon
|UKj, Canada, IlaIy, and Russia) and C-2O (Soulh Af3
iica, Canada, Mexico, lhe Uniled Slales, Aigenlina,
429
iaziI, China, }apan, Soulh Koiea, India, Indonesia,
Saudi Aialia, Russia, Tuikey, Iiance, Ceinany, Ila3
Iy, lhe UK, AusliaIia, and lhe Luiopean Union) na3
joi poveis, despile ils insufhciencies in non-nucIeai
foices. Ioi lhe Uniled Slales and ils NATO aIIies, lhe
inpiession of nucIeai-slialegic paiily, as lelveen lhe
Uniled Slales and Russia, shouId nake Russia a noie
ieIialIe pailnei foi iesoIving conicls shoil of vai.
In case of an oullieak of convenlionaI vai in oi neai
Luiope, Russias seIf-conhdence, as a slialegic nucIe3
ai pailnei of lhe Uniled Slales, nighl deIay Russias
+#07" 1/+ &.( -276#0+ 8#0-( /1 ."+#0. /+ 07.206 -276#0+
use. Alsenl lhis ieassuiance, lhe gap lelveen Russian
and U.S.-NATO convenlionaI foices cieales a peiiI3
/2( .#8*.0.&/- 1/+ *+/8*. -276#0+ ."+#0. /+ 2(#9 /-7#
convenlionaI vai has legun. Inlo lhis doulIe heIix of
escaIalion Iaddeis faII U.S.-NATO and Russian sul-
slialegic nucIeai veapons.
!*HU,"#$"%&'( 9%$A0., $.+ 4EE'$.(% :0E'"'(,D
The concIusion and evenluaI ialihcalion of Nev
START viII Ieave unsellIed lhe slalus of sul-slialegic
nucIeai veapons depIoyed ly lhe Uniled Slales and
Russia in Luiope. Sul-slialegic veapons aie lhose
depIoyed on olhei lhan slialegic Iauncheis, i.e., nis3
siIes oi lonleis of Iess lhan inleiconlinenlaI iange. In
piaclice, lhis incIudes deIiveiy syslens al oi leIov lhe
oulei Iinil of inleinediale iange nissiIes (5,5OO kiIo3
neleis), sonelines iefeiied lo as lallIeheId, lacli3
caI, opeialionaI, oi lhealei nissiIes depending
on acluaI ianges. U.S. sul-slialegic nucIeai veapons
aie piesenlIy Iocaled in hve olhei NATO nenlei
counliies: eIgiun, Ceinany, IlaIy, lhe NelheiIands,
and Tuikey. The ialionaIe foi lhese foivaid depIoyed
43O
U.S nucIeai veapons duiing lhe CoId Wai vas lo sup3
poil lhe coupIing of Aneiican and NATO Luiope3
an slialegic connilnenls againsl Soviel inlinidalion
oi nucIeai lIacknaiI. Nov decades leyond lhe CoId
Wai, Ieading niIilaiy expeils and poIilicians vilhin
NATO Luiope have ieconnended lhal lhese veap3
ons shouId le ienoved and disnanlIed.
34

olh lhe poIilicaI and niIilaiy ialionaIes foi U.S.
sul-slialegic veapons depIoyed in aIIied NATO
slales have leen caIIed inlo queslion. The poIilicaI
ialionaIe of deleiience coupIing seens leside lhe
poinl if NATO and Russia aie no Iongei decIaied oi
de faclo enenies. The niIilaiy ialionaIe, oi lhe need
1/+ 0 .07.&706 -276#0+ /*.&/- 0( *0+. /1 0- #(7060.&/-
Iaddei lhal vouId aIIov NATO lo skiinish vilh
Russia in incienenls, lul shoil of lolaI vai, denands
-20-7#, *#+1/+80-7# 1+/8 7/880-,9 7/-.+/69 0-,
connunicalions (C3) syslens, and connandeis on
lolh sides. Olheivise escaIalion conlioI luins inlo
nuluaI confusion. AIlhough cuiienl Russian niIilaiy
docliine slipuIales lhal NATO is a dangei inslead of
a lhieal, Russian niIilaiy conceins aloul a NATO
convenlionaI hisl sliike oplion neai Russia oi vilhin
ils slale leiiiloiy aigue againsl a Iong pause lelveen
iungs of ils escaIalion Iaddei.
35

Sone Russian slialegisls suppoil lhe use of a snaII
nunlei of laclicaI nucIeai veapons foi lhe de-escaIa3
lion of a convenlionaI vai lased on lhe shock vaIue of
a nucIeai hisl use oplion lo ollain a favoialIe vai
leininalion. ul such a use, as opposed lo lhe lhieal
of nucIeai foice enpIoynenl, couId lackhie, causing
a ielaIialoiy and Iaigei escaIalion ly lhe opponenl.
36

As IaveI aev noled, dehciencies in Russias con3
venlionaI niIilaiy foices nighl inciease lhe appeaI of
nucIeai veapons undei lhe exigenl ciicunslances of
431
peiceived lallIeheId despeialion.
Sa
>,,&.&/-06659 0(
NikoIai Sokov has expIained:
The conlinuing veakness of Russian convenlionaI
foices vis-a-vis U.S. and conlined NATO povei as
veII as lhe cIose pioxinily of NATO foices lo Rus3
sian leiiiloiy (naking Iiniled use of foice lolh noie
feasilIe and noie effeclive) have Ied Russian niIilaiy
*60--#+( ./ +#65 /- -276#0+ '#0*/-( 1/+ ."# *2+*/(#
of de-escaIalion~lhe lhieal of a Iiniled nucIeai sliike
in iesponse lo a convenlionaI allack lhal cannol le ie3
peIIed ly convenlionaI foices is supposed lo delei lhe
allack in lhe hisl pIace.
38
The gioup of expeils lasked in 2O1O lo piepaie
guideIines foi lhe ievision of NATOs slialegic con3
cepl neveilheIess endoised lhe aIIiances depIoynenl
of U.S. sul-slialegic nucIeai veapons ly noling lhal,
as Iong as nucIeai veapons ienain a ieaIily in in3
leinalionaI ieIalions, NATO shouId ielain a nucIeai
conponenl lo ils deleiienl slialegy al lhe nininun
IeveI iequiied ly lhe inleinalionaI secuiily enviion3
nenl.
39
!"# +0.&/-06#( 1/+ ."&( */(&.&/- 0+# ."0. ."# +#3
lenlion of sone U.S. foivaid depIoyed nucIeai veap3
ons on Luiopean leiiiloiy viII suppoil exlended
nucIeai deleiience and coIIeclive defense.
4O
Having il
lolh vays, as il veie, lhe NATO gioup of expeils aIso
caIIs foi an ongoing nucIeai diaIogue vilh Russia lo
expedile lhe fuilhei ieduclion, and possilIe eIinina3
lion, of lhe enliie cIass of sul-slialegic veapons.
41
IioposaIs fion Luiopean poIilicians caIIing foi lhe
ienovaI of U.S. sul-slialegic nucIeai veapons fion
NATO Luiope, especiaIIy in lhe alsence of sone quid
prc quc fion Russia, aie ceilain lo neel vilh iesislance
acioss lhe AlIanlic.
42
Russia viII le caulious aloul ie3
cipiocaling. The going in posilion foi Russia viII
le lhal lhe hisl slep shouId le laken ly lhe Uniled
432
Slales lo iepaliiale oi deslioy aII ils nucIeai veapons
depIoyed oulside of U.S. nalionaI leiiiloiy, as did
Russia vilh ils nucIeai veapons depIoyed in foinei
Soviel slales aflei lhe CoId Wai (vilh U.S. assislance).
The U.S. aigunenl viII le lhal Russia nusl disnanlIe
/+ +#6/70.# (/8# /1 &.( /'- .07.&706 -276#0+ '#0*/-(
lhal aie foivaid depIoyed in Russias veslein niIi3
laiy disliicls and, in pailicuIai, neai lo lhe loideis of
NATO nenlei slales.
Russia consideis lhe assunplion of synneliicaI
ieduclions in laclicaI nucIeai veapons vilh NATO
lo le unfaii lecause NATO aIieady has supeiioi con3
venlionaI foices ieIalive lo Russia. Theiefoie, Russian
laclicaI nucIeai veapons piovide ieassuiance againsl
NATO escaIalion doninance, in case of any silualion
of lhieal oi oullieak of IocaI vai. In addilion, eIinina3
lion of sul-slialegic nucIeai veapons caIIs foi IeveIs of
lianspaiency even leyond lhe inspeclion and veiihca3
lion iegines iequiied foi slialegic nucIeai veapons,
as undei Nev START, and sleps on lhe nalionaI sen3
silivilies of Aneiican NATO aIIies. Oulside lhe ieaIn
of Russias pulIic dipIonacy, lul suieIy on lhe ninds
of Russian niIilaiy pIanneis, as }acol Kipp has noled,
is lhe undoulled ioIe of Russias sul-slialegic nucIeai
veapons in deleiiing any convenlionaI vai againsl
China oi, in lhe evenl of deleiience faiIuie, in conliil3
uling lo a vai leininalion on favoialIe leins.
43

=B% ;H$G$ 5*(E%$# 4&%.+$D
Iiesidenl Olanas exlended agenda foi nucIeai
naiginaIizalion (and, in lheoiy, evenluaI aloIilion)
goes leyond fuilhei START ieduclions and Iinilalions
on NATO and Russian laclicaI nucIeai veapons.
44
In
addilion, Olana vanls lhe Uniled Slales and olhei
oulIieis lo ialify lhe Conpiehensive Tesl an Tiealy
433
(CT), lo noliIize inleinalionaI suppoil in favoi of
a IissiIe MaleiiaIs Culoff Tiealy (IMCT), lo exlend
and slienglhen lhe NucIeai Non-IioIifeialion Tiealy
(NIT), and, nosl inpoilanlIy, lo diav liighl Iines foi
pievenling Iian fion leconing a nucIeai veapons
slale and foi ieveising Noilh Koieas nucIeai veapons
slalus.
45
This is an anlilious, aIlhough nol inpossilIe,
agenda foi nonpioIifeialion, and il iequiies considei3
alIe coopeialion fion exisling IegaIIy iecognized and
de faclo nucIeai veapons slales. Hovevei, lhe Uniled
Slales and Russia have a speciaI iesponsiliIily foi
Ieadeiship in lhis iegaid: lhey hoId noie lhan 9O pei3
cenl of lhe voiIds nucIeai veapons and, as veII, lhe
hisloiicaI iesponsiliIily foi godfalheiing lhe nucIeai
ievoIulion in niIilaiy affaiis. Theii nanagenenl of
nucIeai foices duiing and aflei lhe CoId Wai, despile
sone scaiy nonenls and enlaiiassing poIilicaI pos3
luiing heie and lheie, piovide Iessons Ieained foi
olhei, and especiaIIy nevei, nenleis of lhe nucIeai
veapons cIul.
One of lhese Iessons is lhal fuilhei piogiess in hoi3
izonlaI nucIeai iisk ieduclion (lhe spiead of nucIeai
veapons anong addilionaI slales) iequiies lhe sinuI3
laneous connilnenl ly Ieading nucIeai veapons
slales lo veilicaI iisk ieduclion (Iiniling lhe giovlh
of exisling aisenaIs, oi piefeialIy, ieducing lhen in
size). The pieceding poinl does nol depend upon lhe
aIIegedIy naive aigunenl lhal a good exanpIe sel ly
lhe Uniled Slales and ly Russia aulonalicaIIy lians3
Iales inlo veilicaI oi hoiizonlaI nucIeai iisk ieduclion.
Ciilics of nucIeai iisk ieduclion allack a sliav nan
heie. The Uniled Slales and Russia aie nol ieducing
lheii nunleis of Iong-iange nucIeai veapons and
Iauncheis lecause of aIliuisn. They aie laking lhis
slep lecause excessive nunleis of nucIeai veapons
aie poIilicaIIy poinlIess and niIilaiiIy useIess.
434
In doing so, lhe Ieadeis of Russia and lhe Uniled
Slales connil lhenseIves lo a piocess of iecipiocaI
nucIeai iisk nanagenenl and suppoil foi slalIe de3
.#++#-7# 0-, +#0((2+0-7#9 0 -#7#((0+5 (.#* 1/+ 12+."#+
coopeialion on veilicaI and hoiizonlaI disainanenl.
Hovevei, lhe Uniled Slales and Russia cannol pio3
ceed lo Iovei-lhan-Nev START ieduclions vilhoul
.07&. 0-, #)*6&7&. 7//*#+0.&/- /- ."# *0+. /1 /."#+ 72+3
+#-. -276#0+ '#0*/-( (.0.#(9 0-, #%#- (/8# -276#0+
veapons-ieady oi viiluaI nucIeai veapons slales. As
Heniy SokoIski has expIained:
In addilion lo naking ioughIy equaI ieduclions vilh
Russia, lhen, lhe Uniled Slales viII have lo keep olhei
nucIeai-ained slales, such as China and India, fion
liying lo calch up vilh U.S. nucIeai veapons depIoy3
nenl IeveIs and~as in lhe case of India and China,
Iakislan and India, and }apan and China~fion liy3
ing lo calch up vilh each olhei. This neans lhal addi3
.&/-06 -276#0+ +#(.+0&-.(9 #&."#+ &- ."# 1/+8 /1 -276#0+
'#0*/-( +#,27.&/-( /+ 12+."#+ 6&8&.( /- ."# *+/,273
lion oi slockpiIing of veapons-usalIe fueI, viII need
lo le ieached vilh Russia, of couise, lul aIso vilh Chi3
na, India, and Iakislan. As a piaclicaI nallei, lhis aIso
8#0-( ."0. /."#+ -276#0+ '#0*/-(3+#0,5 /+ %&+.206
veapons slales (e.g., }apan) viII have lo le peisuaded
lo cuilaiI oi end lheii pioduclion of veapons-usalIe
80.#+&06( /+ ./ ,&(*/(# /1 (/8# */+.&/- /1 '"0. ."#5
cuiienlIy have.
46
Olanas vision of a nucIeai fiee voiId, as he ad3
nils, nay nol le ieaIized in his Iifeline~if evei. ul
."# 0%/&,0-7# /1 -276#0+ '0+9 0-, ."# *+#(#+%0.&/-
of a nucIeai laloo lhal has exisled since Nagasaki, is
a sufhcienlIy chaIIenging ciusade foi lhe iesl of lhe
piesenl cenluiy.
47
Managing lovaid lhal end viII ie3
=2&+# &-.#+-0.&/-06 7//*#+0.&/- &- -276#0+ 0+8( 7/-3
.+/69 -/-*+/6&1#+0.&/-9 0-, ,&(0+808#-. ."0. 7/--#7.
435
Iineai lo nonIineai slialegies foi iisk ieduclion. SeiiaI
piogiess in U.S. and Russian nucIeai ains Iinilalion is
a ieaIislic expeclalion, lul nol a guaianly of nonIineai
success sloiies in nonpioIifeialion oi in disainanenl.
To achieve lioadei oljeclives in nucIeai ienuncialion,
slales viII have lo Ieapfiog leyond puieIy slalisl nod3
#6( /1 ,#1#-(# 0-, ,#.#++#-7# &-./ 8/+# 7/882-&.0+3
ian and iegionaI, oi even gIolaI, paiadigns of iefei3
ence. The shaied space of nucIeai dangei incIudes
lhieals, nol onIy fion exisling and aspiiing nucIeai
veapons slales, lul aIso fion nonslale aclois such
0( .#++/+&(.( '&." 0*/7065*.&7 /+ /."#+ 0-.&3(5(.#8&7
agendas.
48
The lvo dangeis aie Iinked in lheoiy and
in piaclice: lhe noie slales vilh nucIeai veapons and
vilh anli-syslenic giievances, lhe noie vuIneialIe aie
."# 7/88/-( ./ 60*(#( &- -276#0+ (#72+&.5 0-,9 *#+3
haps, nucIeai leiioiisn. Slales lhal faiI, individuaIIy
and coIIecliveIy, lo enliace nucIeai iisk ieduclion oi
eIininalion couId hnd lhenseIves in lhe laigel cooidi3
nales of fuluie exlienisls vho aie leyond deleiience.
Q8=L;?;7;OR
4AA#0$(BD
The pieceding discussion sels lhe slage foi lhe
foIIoving anaIysis. The nelhodoIogy viII pioceed in
lvo piincipaI sleps. Iiisl, a slalislicaI nodeI is used lo
lesl lhe adequacy of piojecled U.S. and Russian sliale3
gic nucIeai foices lhal aie Nev START-conpIianl. As
pail of lhis fianevoik, an exaninalion is piovided lo
,#.#+8&-# &1 (8066#+ 1/+7#( 1/+ #&."#+ (.0.# 7/26, 8##.
lhe ciileiia foi deleiience sufhciency and slaliIily.
The conpaiison vilh possilIe posl-Nev START foic3
es is nol an idIe acadenic exeicise. olh lhe Uniled
Slales and Russia have indicaled lhal lhe dooi is open
436
lo ieducing lhe nunleis of depIoyed slialegic nucIeai
veapons leIov lhe IeveIs agieed in lhe liealy signed
on ApiiI 8, 2O1O.
In a second slep of lhe anaIysis, lhe conneclion le3
.'##- -276#0+ 0+8( +#,27.&/-( 0-, -/-*+/6&1#+0.&/-
viII le exanined lhiough lhe use of a peilinenl vhal
if iIIuslialion of one hypolhelicaI, lul ieaIislic, voiId
enviionnenl. If, foi exanpIe, lhe Uniled Slales and
Russia can agiee lo Iovei-lhan-Nev START IeveIs of
slialegic ielaIialoiy foices, lheii ienaining naxinun
IeveIs foi depIoyed nucIeai veapons couId le lhe
lasis foi a consliained nucIeai pioIifeialion syslen
anong lhe exisling iecognized and de faclo nucIeai
veapons slales. This conneclion lelveen Aneiican
and Russian veilicaI disainanenl and iesponsiliIily
1/+ 6#0,#+("&* /- -/-*+/6&1#+0.&/- &( -/. "5*/."#.&706
oi acadenic, lul IegaI and opeialionaI.
49

As acknovIedged nucIeai veapons slales undei
lhe piolocoIs of lhe nucIeai NIT, lhe Uniled Slales
and Russia (anong olheis) aie iequiied lo engage in
nucIeai ains ieduclions and ains Iinilalion. Opeia3
lionaIIy, lhe Uniled Slales and Russia have lhe Iaig3
#(. -276#0+ 0+(#-06(9 ."# 8/(. #)*#+&#-7# '&." -276#0+
foice opeialions, and lhe nosl expeiience in negolial3
ing nucIeai ains conlioI agieenenls. In shoil, lhe con3
neclion lelveen U.S.-Russian nucIeai ains ieduclions
and dovnsliean success in conlioIIing lhe spiead of
-276#0+ '#0*/-( &( #)*6&7&.9 ,#(*&.# ."# ,#-&06( /1 75-3
ics, nay sayeis, and piophels of inevilalIe nucIeai pio3
Iifeialion and doonsday. On lhe olhei hand, accepl3
ing iesponsiliIily foi aclion is nol lhe sane lhing as
acconpIishing il. The Uniled Slales and Russia cannol
necessaiiIy gel lhe iesl of lhe nucIeai cIul lo naich in
slep vilh lheii anlilions, even vhen Washinglon and
Moscov aie agieed.
437
?$"$ 4.$E[,',D
Cuiienl and Nev START accounlalIe U.S. and
Russian slialegic nucIeai foices aie sunnaiized in
TalIe 9-1.
Russia
!"#$ &''(
)#* +,-.,
#/"012345
&'6'
-17"/#
)834/79:0/##$
;38#:$3*
</"012345
=7:7/# #/"012345>
?/@ &'&'
A3B +,-.,
:834/79:0/##$
*38#:$3* #/"012345
=7:7/# #/"012345>C
3579D/73
?/@ &'&' A3B
+,-., B/423/*5
=3579D/73>
E?FG5
SS25 17G 171 O O
SS27 Silo 5O 5O GO GO
SS27 Road 15 18 27 27
RS24 85 255
SS1O 12O 7O O O
SS18 1O4 5O 2O 2OO
Total CBMs 4G5 8G7 1O2 542
+<FG5
0elta /
SSh18
G/OG 4/G4 O O
0elta v/
SSh28
G/OG 4/G4 (G/OG) 4/G4 25G
Tyhoon/
SSh2O
2/4O O O O
Borey/ Bulava 2/8G O 4/G4 884
Total SLBMs 2G8 128 (1G4) 128 G4O
F:DH345
Tu1GO 18 18 18 18
TuO5MS G8 G8 G8 G8
Total Bombers 7G 7G 7G 7G
T0TAL 8OO 571(GO8) 8OG(8OG) 1258
438
Uniled Slales
Souice: IaveI Iodvig, Nev START Tiealy in Nunleis,
fion his lIog, Russian s|ra|cgic nuc|car fcrccs, ApiiI 9, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion russianfcrccs.crg/o|cg/2010/03/ncu_s|ar|_|rca|q_in_nun-
ocrs.sn|n|.
Noles:
1. Nev START counling iuIes counl each lonlei as a singIe
veapon (vaihead) aIlhough lonleis acluaIIy caiiy noie lhan
one veapon.
2. Undei Nev START each slale is peinilled lo depIoy a nax3
inun nunlei of 7OO opeialionaI Iauncheis and lo nainlain up lo
1OO addilionaI nondepIoyed Iauncheis.
=$HE% PUKD 2*,,'$. $.+ 3D!D !"#$"%&'( 5*(E%$#
@0#(%,D :$," $.+ :#0e%("%+D
!"#$ &''(
)#* +,-.,
#/"012345
&'6'
-17"/#
)834/79:0/##$
;38#:$3*
</"012345
=7:7/# #/"012345>
?/@ &'&'
A3B +,-.,
:834/79:0/##$
*38#:$3* #/"012345
=7:7/# #/"012345>C
3579D/73
?/@ &'&' A3B
+,-., B/423/*5
=3579D/73>
E?FG5
Minuteman

5OO 45O 85O 85O


MX 5O O O O
Total CBMs 55O 45O 85O 85O
+<FG5
Trident /C4 4/OG O O O
Trident /05 14/88G 12/288 (14/88G) 12/288 (14/88G) 1152
Total SLBMs 2G8 288 (88G) 288 (88G) 1152
Borey/ Bulava 2/8G O 4/G4 884
Total SLBMs 2G8 128 (1G4) 128 G4O
F:DH345
B1 47 O O O
B2 18 1G (18) 1G (18) 1G
B52 141 44 (O8) 82 (O8) 82
Total Bombers 2OG GO (111) 48 (111) 48
T0TAL 1188 7O8 (8O7) G8G (7O7) 155O
439
Using lhe nunleis in TalIe 3-1 as poinls of depai3
luie, ve consliucl hypolhelicaI, lul nol unieaIislic,
U.S. and Russian slialegic nucIeai foices foi lhe pe3
iiod 2O17-2O2O lhal aie consislenl vilh Nev START
guideIines and ieIaled poIicy slalenenls nade ly of3
hciaIs of lolh slales.
5O
These guideIines incIude:
(1) lhe expeclalion lhal lolh lhe Uniled Slales
and Russia viII nainlain a liiad of slialegic nucIeai
Iauncheis, incIuding Iand-lased ICMs, SLMs, and
heavy lonleis,
(2) no Iinilalions on fuluie defenses depIoyed ly
eilhei side, aIlhough a nolihcalion and vilhdiavaI
7602(# #)&(.( ."0. 7/26, 066/' #&."#+ *0+.5 ./ ,#*0+.
lhe liealy foi lhis oi olhei ieasons,
(3) counling iuIes lhal undeiiepiesenl lhe nun3
leis of veapons depIoyed on Iong-iange lonleis,
(4) poslponenenl of lhe issues of sloied nucIeai
veapons and lheii ieIaled upIoad polenliaI, and,
(5) a lvo slep Iinilalion on lhe nunleis of de3
*6/5#, &-.#+7/-.&-#-.06 /+ .+0-(/7#0-&7 602-7"3
eis~7OO depIoyed and 1OO addilionaI nondepIoyed.
51
Iiguie 9-1 piovides a diavdovn cuive of second
sliike suiviving and ielaIialing slialegic nucIeai vai3
heads foi U.S. foices undei Nev START depIoynenl
Iinils of 1,55O veapons foi each slale.
52
Suiviving and
ielaIialing vaiheads aie caIcuIaled undei each of foui
/*#+0.&/-06 7/-,&.&/-( /1 06#+.-#(( 0-, 602-7" +#0,&3
ness:
(1) foices aie on geneialed aIeil and Iaunched on
vaining (CLN, LOW),
(2) foices aie on geneialed aIeil and iide oul lhe
allack lefoie ielaIialing (CLN, ROA),
(3) foices aie on day-lo-day aIeil and Iaunch on
vaining (DAY, LOW), and,
44O
(4) foices aie on day lo day aIeil and iide oul lhe
allack (DAY, ROA).
The diavdovn cuive giaphs lhe nunleis of lolaI,
avaiIalIe, aIeil, suiviving, and aiiiving veapons foi
each opeialionaI condilion.

@'&*#% PUKD 3D!D !*#F'F'.& $.+ 2%"$E'$"'.&
9$#B%$+,> K>]]J ?%AE0[G%." 7'G'"D
In Iiguie 9-2, lhe nunleis of suiviving and ielaIi3
aling Russian second sliike vaiheads aie laluIaled
0-, ,#*&7.#, 1/+ #07" /1 ."# 1/2+ /*#+0.&/-06 7/-,&3
lions undei Nev START depIoynenl Iinils of 1,55O
veapons. The giaph shovs lhe nunleis of lolaI,
avaiIalIe, aIeil, suiviving, and aiiiving veapons foi
each opeialionaI condilion, foIIoving lhe sane sche3
nalic as shovn in Iiguie 9-1 foi U.S. foices.
441
@'&*#% PUID 2*,,'$. !*#F'F'.& $.+ 2%"$E'$"'.&
9$#B%$+,> K>]]J ?%AE0[G%." 7'G'"D
A cIose inspeclion of Iiguies 9-1 and 9-2 ieveaIs
lhal U.S. and Russian Nev START-conpIianl foices
70- #0(&65 (0.&(15 +#=2&+#8#-.( 1/+ 82.206 ,#.#++#-7#
lased on assuied ielaIialion. Lach, undei a vaiiely
of opeialionaI condilions, has sufhcienl nunleis of
suiviving and ielaIialing vaiheads lo guaianlee un3
acceplalIe socielaI danage lo lhe hisl sliikei. In addi3
lion lo lhis assuied desliuclion oi assuied ielaIia3
lion neliic, each side can aIso piovide foi addilionaI
vaiheads vilh vhich lo allack nucIeai, olhei foices,
and connand-conlioI syslens. The addilion of defen3
sive veapons lo lhe equalion foi lolh sides does nol
change lhis picluie fundanenlaIIy, aIlhough il does
ieduce lhe exiliIily of laigeling foi each side in ie3
laIialion.
Whal happens if lhe naxinun nunlei of slialegic
-276#0+ '#0*/-( *#+8&..#, 1/+ #07" (&,# &( +#,27#, ./
442
1,OOO inslead of 1,55O` In Iiguies 9-3 and 9-4, lhe nun3
leis of U.S. and Russian second sliike suiviving and
ielaIialing vaiheads foi lhe foui opeialionaI condi3
lions oulIined in Iiguies 9-1 and 9-2 aie sunnaiized.
@'&*#% PUSD 3D!D !*#F'F'.& $.+ 2%"$E'$"'.&
9$#B%$+,> K>JJJ ?%AE0[G%." 7'G'"D
@'&*#% PU\D 2*,,'$. !*#F'F'.& $.+ 2%"$E'$"'.&
9$#B%$+,> K>JJJ ?%AE0[G%." 7'G'"D
443
The iesuIls sunnaiized in Iiguies 9-3 and 9-4
shov lhal lhe Uniled Slales and Russia can, vilhin a
naxinun depIoynenl Iinil of 1,OOO veapons and un3
,#+ 068/(. 066 7/-,&.&/-( /1 /*#+0.&/-06 06#+.-#(( 0-,
602-7" +#0,&-#((9 *+/%&,# 1/+ ."# 0((2+#, ,#(.+27.&/-3
assuied ielaIialion nission, and lhen sone. Lach has
noie lhan 4OO suiviving and ielaIialing veapons un3
dei aII opeialionaI condilions, excepl foi Russia undei
lhe voisl case foi a ielaIialoi: vilh lhe ielaIialois
foices posluied on day-lo-day aIeil, and iiding oul lhe
allack. Neilhei Russian noi Aneiican foices vouId
piolalIy le in lhis condilion duiing lhe kind of poIili3
706 7+&(&( &- '"&7" ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+ '#0*/-( '0( (#+&3
ousIy consideied ly each side. In addilion, lhe ieason
foi lhe giealei degiee of synneliy lelveen lhe lvo
sides in oulcones foi lhe 1,OOO vaihead depIoynenl
Iinil, conpaied lo lhe Nev START 1,55O naxinun,
Iies in lhe facl lhal oui 1,OOO (hypolhelicaI) iIIuslialion
uses a Russian foice lhal is cIosei in size and quaIily
lo lhe U.S. foice lhan is lhe case in Nev START. In
leins of slialegic inpacl, hovevei, lhis is a dislinclion
vilhoul a diffeience.
Why lolhei denonslialing vhal sone schoIais and
defense anaIysls iegaid as seIf evidenl: lhal lhe Uniled
Slales and Russia have noie lhan enough depIoyed
Iong-iange nucIeai veapons, cuiienlIy and piospec3
liveIy, lo nainlain slalIe deleiience and lo avoid lhe
possiliIily of a nucIeai hisl sliike ly lhe olhei side`
The piolIen is noie sullIe lhan lhe queslion inpIies.
The alsliacl possiliIily of a nucIeai hisl sliike capaliI3
ily ly lhe Uniled Slales againsl Russia has leen used
as a laigaining chip in Russian doneslic poIilics ly
disgiunlIed conseivalives in ils niIilaiy, ly ieseaich3
eis in Russian lhink lanks, and ly KienIin-suppoilive
nedia souices.
53
This consleIIalion of havkish vievs
oulside of ofhciaI Russian ninisliies, lul acling in
444
possilIe conceil vilh synpalhelic KienIin souices,
aIIovs lhe Medvedev-Iulin landen lo have il lolh
vays. OfhciaI channeIs liunpel lhe iesel in U.S.-
Russian ieIalions, vhiIe supposedIy independenl
havkish connenlalois fan lhe anes of pulIic opin3
ion in dehning lhe Uniled Slales and NATO as na3
joi enenies of Russia.
54
Noi veie doulls aloul Nev
START and fuilhei piogiess in nucIeai ains conlioI
conhned lo skeplicaI Russians. Duiing heaiings le3
foie lhe U.S. Senale Ioieign ReIalions Connillee in
May 2O1O, vaiious Senalois expiessed doulls aloul
Nev START, incIuding lhe possiliIily lhal il vouId
Iinil fuluie Aneiican nissiIe defense oplions.
55

The hisl seclion of lhis chaplei aigued lhal lheie
vas a diiecl conneclion in poIicy and slialegy lelveen
lhe liIaleiaI U.S.-Russian nucIeai ains ieduclions and
lhe piolIen of nuIliIaleiaI nonpioIifeialion nanage3
nenl. If so, couId lhe Iovei of lhe lvo iIIuslialions
foi lhe U.S.-Russian foice Iinilalions, a naxinun of
1,OOO depIoyed vaiheads foi each side, seive as a la3
sis foi oiganizing a consliained nonpioIifeialion sys3
len anong lhe exisling nucIeai veapons slales` Lel
2( 0((28# ."0.9 &- ."&( 7/-(.+0&-#, -276#0+ *+/6&1#+03
lion syslen, Iian is pievenled fion depIoying nucIeai
veapons and Noilh Koiean nucIeai pioIifeialion is
ioIIed lack ly dipIonalic agieenenl. The ienaining
nucIeai veapons slales (lhe Uniled Slales, Russia, UK,
Iiance, China, India, Iakislan, and IsiaeI) agiee lo a
lieied sliucluie lhal piovides foi a naxinun of 1,OOO
depIoyed veapons foi lhe Uniled Slales and foi Rus3
sia, a naxinun of 5OO each foi iilain, Iiance, and
China, and a naxinun of 3OO foi India, IsiaeI, and
Iakislan. NolionaI foices aie assigned lo each of lhese
poveis in Iiguie 9-5, and lhe nunleis of second sliike
ielaIialing vaiheads piovided ly each foice aie esli3
naled in Iiguie 9-6. These nunleis aie olviousIy nol
445
inlended as piediclions of acluaI foices lo le depIoyed
ly lhese slales in lhe 2O17-2O line fiane. Inslead, lhey
aie heuiislics lo aIIov foi lioad conpaiisons and iI3
Iuslialions of possilIe second sliike suivivaliIily un3
dei canonicaI condilions.
@'&*#% PU]D 60.,"#$'.%+ :#0E'Y%#$"'0. Q0+%ED
=0"$E !"#$"%&'( 9%$A0.,D
@'&*#% PU`D 60.,"#$'.%+ :#0E'Y%#$"'0. Q0+%E>
!*#F'F'.& $.+ 2%"$E'$"'.& 9%$A0.,D
446
The hndings in Iiguie 9-6 shov lhal vilhin a lhiee-
.&#+#, 7/-(.+0&-#, -276#0+ *+/6&1#+0.&/- (5(.#89 2-,#+
an unlieIIa of U.S. and Russian foices each capped
al 1,OOO depIoyed Iong-iange veapons, il is possilIe
(aIlhough nol guaianleed) lo consliucl a deleiience
and ciisis-slalIe pyianid if~aIvays lhe lig if~ne3
golialions can pioduce acceplalIe laigains, noniloi3
ing, and veiihcalion can le acconpIished vilh neces3
saiy lianspaiency, and lhose oulIieis seeking lo lash
lheii vay inlo lhe cIul can le excIuded. Is lhis faii`
Neilhei nonpioIifeialion noi any olhei seiious goaI in
inleinalionaI poIilics is IikeIy lo le ollained ly neans
lhal aie enliieIy faii, lul a Iess lhan enliieIy faii sys3
len nighl sliII neel lhe ciileiia of decision ialionaIily.
!"/(# 7+&.#+&0 &-762,# ."# *+#8&(# ."0. 7/-(#-(2( /-
najoi poinls of agieenenl has leen ieached acioss lhe
loundaiies of diveise slale inleiesls and piioiilies.
In addilion, liade-offs and side paynenls lo ieach
."0. 7/-(#-(2( ("/26, -/. 6#0%# 0-5 -276#0+ 0+8#,
(.0.# &- 0 7/-(.+0&-#, *+/6&1#+0.&/- (5(.#8 '&." &-3
cenlives foi chealing on lhe agieed nunleis oi, even
voise, foi oveiluining lhe enliie sliucluie in favoi of
nucIeai advenluiisn. No aiiangenenl of nunleis can
iesliicl lhe eIlov ioon of slales and lheii Ieadeis lo
do hain, oi good, lased on doneslic poIilicaI nolives
and lhe sliucluie of lhe inleinalionaI syslen. Ains
conlioI cannol sulslilule foi poIilics, il can onIy lake
advanlage of favoialIe poIilicaI cIinales lo ieduce lhe
piolaliIily of vai oi lhe disuliIily of vai, if il occuis.
56

In lhe case of nucIeai vai oi nucIeai veapons spiead,
lhe avoidance is lo le piefeiied lo lhe aIleinalives.
447
6;5673!-;5
Nev START and olhei nanifeslalions of U.S.-
Russian nucIeai ains conlioI aie enledded in (al
Ieasl) lhiee oveiIapping IeveIs of concepluaI anaIysis.
The hisl IeveI is lhe need foi ieconcepluaIizalion of
geoslialegic space, especiaIIy Luio-slialegic space, in
oidei lo exlend lhe concepl of a Luiopean secuiily
connunily fion lhe AlIanlic lo lhe UiaIs, and fion
SvaIlaid lo Sinope. This liuIy liansconlinenlaI secu3
iily space nusl le appioached ly lhe Uniled Slales,
Russia, and NATO as a posilive-sun poIicy and sliale3
gy gane, inslead of zeio-sun conpelilion. Cccpcra|itc
(#72+&.5 &( 0- #8*.5 %#((#6 '&."/2. 07.&%# cc||aocra|itc
(#72+&.5 *+/7#,2+#( 0-, &-(.&.2.&/-( ./ (2**/+. &.<0(
iecenl ains conlioI expeiience has shovn. Movenenl
fion coopeialive inlo coIIaloialive secuiily viII ie3
quiie peisislenl poIicynakeis vho aie deleinined lo
oveicone luieaucialic ineilia in Washinglon, Mos3
cov, and iusseIs.
!"# (#7/-, 6#%#6 /1 0-065(&( &-%/6%#( ."# -#7#(3
saiy liansfoinalion in foieign poIicy oiienlalions on
lhe pail of lhe Uniled Slales, NATO, and Russia. The
Uniled Slales needs lo discaid ils iecenl excuisions
&-./ 2-&60.#+06&(89 *+##8*.&%# 8&6&.0+5 ,/7.+&-#(9 0-,
onnivoious slalenenls of foieign poIicy oljeclives,
lased on an oxynoionic cocklaiI of IileiaI inleina3
lionaIisn and neoconseivalisn. Inslead, lhe Uniled
Slales shouId puisue ils liadilionaI poIicy of leing
an offshoie laIancei, suppIenenled ly pieenp3
live Ieadeiship foi (nuIliIaleiaI) conicl pievenlion
and nanagenenl, suppoiled ly Aneiicas unique
capaliIilies foi syslens inlegialion and gIolaI niIi3
laiy ieach. Russia needs lo adjusl ils niIilaiy DNA lo
a voiId in vhich NATO is pail of lhe soIulion, nol
448
lhe piolIen, fion a Russian peispeclive: coopeialion
on nissiIe defenses vouId le a slep in lhis diieclion.
NATO needs lo adjusl ils neai lein goaIs, avay fion
."# 07=2&(&.&/- /1 0,,&.&/-06 .#++&./+&#( 0-, ,#*#-,#-3
cies (iead: Ukiaine and Ceoigia) and lovaid a Cieal
Noilhein AIIiance concepl lhal incIudes Russia as a
secuiily pailnei, if nol a nenlei.
The lhiid IeveI of anaIysis, deiivalive of lhe hisl
lvo, is fuilhei Russian-Aneiican novenenl on nu3
76#0+ 0+8( +#,27.&/-(9 '&." ."# */.#-.&06 1/+ (*&66/%#+
inlo nonpioIifeialion. WiII lhe Nev START agieenenl,
once ialihed and lioughl inlo foice Iead necessaiiIy,
oi inevilalIy, lo piogiess on nucIeai nonpioIifeialion
undei lhe Ieadeiship of Moscov and Washinglon` A
gieal deaI depends on lhe piioiilies pIaced ly each
side on nonpioIifeialion, conpaied lo olhei foieign
poIicy issues.
57
The Uniled Slales and Russia can do
6&..6# '&."/2. 7//*#+0.&/- 1+/8 /."#+ -276#0+ '#0*/-(
slales, especiaIIy lhe olhei peinanenl nenleis of lhe
UN Secuiily CounciI (I-5): lhe UK, Iiance, and China.
Iian and Noilh Koiea aie inninenl lesl cases foi lhe
vialiIily of lhe cuiienl nucIeai nonpioIifeialion ie3
gine, lul even lhe nosl favoialIe oulcones in lhese
cases do nol piecIude olhei chaIIenges.
58
RegaidIess
lhe liiaIs and liiluIalions of inleislale pioIifeialion,
-/-(.0.# 07./+(9 #(*#7&0665 .#++/+&(.(9 *+#(#-. 0,,&.&/-3
aI chaIIenges guaianleeing sIeepIess nighls.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 P
1. Llen HaiieII, A Suipiising Consensus on NucIeai Non3
pioIifeialion, Tine.con, }une 2, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.|inc.
ccn/|inc/prin|cu|/0,8816,1993339,00.n|n|.
2. Rose CollenoeIIei, Assislanl Secielaiy, uieau of Veiihca3
lion, ConpIiance and InpIenenlalion, The Nev START Tiea3
449
ly, Opening Slalenenl lefoie lhe Senale Ioieign ReIalions Con3
nillee, Washinglon, DC, }une 15, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.s|a|c.
gct/|/tci/r|s/143159.n|n.
3. Ielei akei, Russia and U.S. Sign NucIeai Ains Reduc3
lion Iacl, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
nq|incs.ccn/2010/04/09/ucr|d/curcpc/09prcxq.n|n|, and Olana,
Medvedev sign hisloiic ains deaI, Associaled Iiess, ApiiI 8,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nsnoc.nsn.ccn/id/36254613/ns/pc|i|ics-
uni|c_ncusc/prin|. Ioi expeil anaIysis and piojeclions, see IaveI
Iodvig, Nev START Tiealy in Nunleis, fion his lIog, Russian
s|ra|cgic nuc|car fcrccs, ApiiI 9, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion russianfcrccs.
crg/o|cg/2010/03/ncu_s|ar|_|rca|q_in_nunocrs.sn|n|.
4. The lexl of lhe Nev START liealy appeais in Trca|q oc-
|uccn |nc Uni|cd S|a|cs cf Ancrica and |nc Russian |cdcra|icn cn
Mcasurcs fcr |nc |ur|ncr Rcduc|icn and |ini|a|icn cf S|ra|cgic Of-
fcnsitc Arns, Washinglon, DC: U.S. Depailnenl of Slale, ApiiI 8,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.s|a|c.gct/dccuncn|s/crganiza|icn/140035.
pdf. Conliasling appiaisaIs of Nev START appeai in Sleven Ii3
fei, Nev START: Cood Nevs foi U.S. Secuiily, Arns Ccn|rc|
Tcdaq, May 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arnsccn|rc|.crg/prin|/4209,
Keilh . Iayne, LvaIualing lhe U.S.-Russian NucIeai DeaI, la||
S|rcc| ]curna|, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #69,
ApiiI 8, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|, }onalhan
ScheII, NucIeai laIance of leiioi nusl end, CNN, ApiiI 8, 2O1O,
in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #69, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, datidjcnnscn
s|arpcucr.nc|, and AIexandei CoIls, An IIIusoiy Nev START,
Mcsccu Tincs, Maich 3O, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #62,
Maich 3O, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
5. On cuiienl and piospeclive U.S. nissiIe defense pio3
gians, see UncIassihed Slalenenl of Lieulenanl CeneiaI Ial3
iick }. OReiIIy, Diiecloi, MissiIe Defense Agency, lefoie lhe
House Ained Seivices Connillee, Sulconnillee on Sliale3
gic Ioices, Regaiding lhe IiscaI Yeai 2O11 MissiIe Defense Iio3
gians, Washinglon, DC: House Ained Seivices Connillee, U.S.
House of Repiesenlalives, ApiiI 15, 2O1O, esp. p. 18 on alsence
of Nev START consliainls. See aIso WaIlei Iincus, Ains liealy
shouIdnl consliain U.S. nissiIe defenses, lasning|cn Pcs|9 >*+&6
2O, 2O1O, p. A13, avaiIalIe fion uuu.uasning|cnpcs|.ccn/up-dqn/
ccn|cn|/ar|ic|c/2010/04/19/AR2010041904602_.
45O
6. Roleil M. Cales, The Case foi lhe Nev START Tiealy,
la|| S|rcc| ]curna|, May 13, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O,
#94, May 13, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
7. An infoinalive discussion of lhis appeais in AIexei Aila3
lov, The Nev START~A Viev fion Moscov, queslion and
ansvei foinal, Washinglon, DC: Cainegie Lndovnenl foi Inlei3
nalionaI Ieace, ApiiI 6, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.carncgiccndcu-
ncn|.crg/puo|ica|icns/indcx.cfn?fa=ticucid=40506.
8. IaveI IeIgenhauei, The uIava Iundei, Nctaqa Gazc|a9
}uIy 25, 2OO9, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #14O, }uIy 27, 2OO9,
avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|. Accoiding lo AIex3
andei CoIls, lhe uIava hasco is noie a nallei of nanageiiaI
inconpelence lhan il is a lechnoIogicaI faiIuie. CoIls, The High
Iiice of Ieeding Russias Anlilions, Mcsccu Tincs, }uIy 28, 2OO9,
in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #141, }uIy 28, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion
datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
9. Roleil M. Cales, A ellei MissiIe Defense foi a Safei Lu3
iope, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, Seplenlei 19, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
nq|incs.ccn/2009/09/20/cpinicn/20ga|cs.n|n|. The Olana Ihased
>,0*.&%# >**+/07" ./ 8&((&6# ,#1#-(# '&66 +#.0&- 0-, &8*+/%#
sone lechnoIogies depIoyed ly lhe Ceoige W. ush adninislia3
lion, lul shifl enphasis lo olhei inleiceplois suppoiled ly in3
pioved lallIe nanagenenl, connand-conlioI-connunicalions
(MC3) syslens, and Iaunch deleclion and liacking. See UncIassi3
hed Slalenenl of Lieulenanl CeneiaI Ialiick }. OReiIIy, USA, Di3
iecloi, MissiIe Defense Agency, efoie lhe House Ained Seivices
Connillee, Washinglon, DC: U.S. House of Repiesenlalives,
House Ained Seivices Connillee, Oclolei 1, 2OO9. Iionpl ieac3
lions lo lhe Olana nissiIe defense pIan incIude Ceoige Iiied3
nan, The MD Decision and lhe CIolaI Syslen, STRATIOR,
Seplenlei 21, 2OO9, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #175, Seplen3
lei 22, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|, AIexan3
dei CoIls, CaIIing Moscovs Iuff on MissiIe Defense, Mcsccu
Tincs, Seplenlei 22, 2OO9, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #175,
Seplenlei 22, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|,
AIexandei L. Iikayev, Ioi lhe enehl of AII, Mcsccu Tincs, Sep3
lenlei 21, 2OO9, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #174, Seplenlei
21, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|, and Sliole
451
TaIloll, A lellei lase foi culling nucIeai veapons, |inancia|
Tincs, Seplenlei 21, 2OO9, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #174,
Seplenlei 21, 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
1O. A ciilicaI expeil appiaisaI of lhe Olana nissiIe defense
pIan appeais in Ceoige N. Levis and Theodoie A. IosloI, A
IIaved and Dangeious U.S. MissiIe Defense IIan, Arns Ccn|rc|
Tcdaq, May 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arnsccn|rc|.crg/prin|/4244.
See aIso WiIIian }. ioad and David L. Sangei, Reviev Ciles
IIavs in U.S. AnlinissiIe Iiogian, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, May 17,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nq|incs.ccn/2010/05/18/ucr|d/18nissi|c.
n|n|. Ioi a favoialIe expeil assessnenl of lhe Olana nissiIe de3
fense pIan, see Hans innendijk, A SensilIe Decision: A Widei
Iioleclive UnlieIIa, lasning|cn Tincs, Seplenlei 3O, 2OO9, in
}ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #181, Seplenlei 3O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|. Lxpeil Russian connenlaiy on
piospecls foi U.S.-Russian nissiIe defense coopeialion and on
ieIaled slialegic issues aIso appeais in Seigei Rogov, Concepls:
The Windov of Oppoilunily is Open, Nczatisincqc Vcqcnncqc
Ooczrcniqc, May 28, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #114, }une
11, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|. Conlinuing
Russian doulls aloul MD aie noled in Russia SliII Suspicious
of U.S. MissiIe Defense IIans, Reuleis, Seplenlei 29, 2OO9, in
}ohnsons Russia Lisl 2OO9, #181, Seplenlei 3O, 2OO9, avaiIalIe
1+/8 datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
11. NikoIai Sokov, NucIeai Weapons in Russian NalionaI
Secuiily Slialegy, papei piesenled al confeience on Slialegy
and Docliine in Russian Secuiily IoIicy, Il. McNaii, NalionaI
Defense Univeisily, Washinglon, DC, }une 28, 2O1O, p. 3O.
12. Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr|, Washinglon, DC: U.S. De3
pailnenl of Defense, ApiiI 2O1O, p. 15.
13. Ieilinenl and spiiiled connenlaiy on NIR and ieIaled
nucIeai secuiily issues appeais on lhe lIog ArnsCcn|rc|lcn| #,3
iled ly Di. }effiey Levis. See, foi exanpIe, }effiey Levis, Ciad3
ing lhe NIR: Tianspaiency, ApiiI 13, 2O1O, Levis, The Iivol,
ApiiI 7, 2O1O, and }oshua IoIIack, Wheie lhe NIR Meels in lhe
MiddIe, ApiiI 6, 2O1O, aII avaiIalIe fion uuu.arnsccn|rc|ucn|.
ccn/ca|cgcrq/nuc|car-ucapcns/.
452
14. DaiyI C. KinlaII, Olanas NucIeai Docliine CouId oosl
Resel, Mcsccu Tincs, ApiiI 13, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl
2O1O, #72, ApiiI 13, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.
nc|. See aIso DaiyI C. KinlaII and Cieg ThieInann, Olanas
NIR: TiansilionaI, Nol TiansfoinalionaI, Arns Ccn|rc| Tcdaq9
May 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.arnsccn|rc|.crg/prin|/4223.
15. Ciaig WhilIock, U.S. deveIoping nev non-nucIeai nis3
siIes, lasning|cn Pcs|, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.nsnoc.
nsn.ccn/id/36253190/ns/us_ncus-uasning|cn_pcs|/prin|/1/.
16. Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rcpcr|, p. 2O.
17. David L. Sangei and Thon Shankei, U.S. Iaces Choice on
Nev Weapons foi Iasl Sliikes, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, ApiiI 23, 2O1O,
p. A1. Accoiding lo lhe sane souice, lhe Olana piecision gIolaI
sliike concepl envisions lhal Russia vouId ieguIaiIy inspecl ICS
(&6/( ./ +#0((2+# &.(#61 ."0. ."# '#0*/-( '#+# -/-3-276#0+9 0-,
lhal Aneiican ICS Iauncheis vouId le Iocaled fai fion lhose
lasked foi slialegic nucIeai foices.
18. Keii A. Lielei and DaiyI C. Iiess, The Rise of U.S. Nu3
cIeai Iiinacy, |crcign Affairs, Maich/ApiiI 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.fcrcignaffairs.crg/20060301facssaq85204/|cir-a-|icocr-darq|-
g-prcss/n|n|. Ioi iejoindeis lo Lielei and Iiess, see Ielei C. W.
IIoiy, Keilh Iayne, IaveI Iodvig, and AIexei Ailalov, NucIeai
Lxchange: Does Washinglon ReaIIy Have (oi Wanl) NucIeai Iii3
nacy` |crcign Affairs, Seplenlei/Oclolei 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.fcrcignaffairs.ccn/prin|/61931.

19. NucIeai veapons, accoiding lo NikoIai Sokov, have lhiee
pailiaIIy oveiIapping ioIes in Russian nalionaI secuiily poIicy: (1)
as a slalus synloI, (2) foi exislenliaI deleiience, and, (3) as pail of
conlingenl pIans foi use oi lhieal of use lo delei Iaige scaIe con3
venlionaI allacks on Russia. Sokov, NucIeai Weapons in Russian
Secuiily Slialegy, papei piesenled al confeience on Slialegy
and Docliine in Russian Secuiily IoIicy, Il. McNaii, NalionaI
Defense Univeisily, Washinglon, DC, }une 28, 2O1O, p. 5.
453
2O. DaIe R. Heispiing, Iulin, Medvedev, and lhe Russian
MiIilaiy, Chap. 12, in Slephen K. Wegien and DaIe R. Heispiing,
eds., Af|cr Pu|ins Russia. Pas| |npcrfcc|, |u|urc Unccr|ain9 A/2+."
Ld., Lanhan, MD: Rovnan and LillIeheId, 2O1O, pp. 265-29O.
21. }acol W. Kipp, Russias NucIeai Iosluie and lhe Thieal
Thal Daie nol Speak Ils Nane, papei piesenled al confeience on
Slialegy and Docliine in Russian Secuiily IoIicy, Il. McNaii,
NalionaI Defense Univeisily, Washinglon, DC, }une 28, 2O1O, p. 5.
22. I gialefuIIy acknovIedge DaIe Heispiing foi insighls inlo
lhis issue. He is nol iesponsilIe foi aigunenls heie. See aIso, on
lhe seiiousness of Russian niIilaiy iefoin, Keii CiIes, The MiI3
ilaiy Docliine of lhe Russian Iedeialion 2O1O, NATO Rcscarcn
Rcticu, Rone, IlaIy: NATO Defense CoIIege, Ieliuaiy, 2O1O, esp.
p. 3.
23. Rogei N. McDeinoll, Russias ConvenlionaI Ained
Ioices, Refoin and NucIeai Iosluie lo 2O2O, papei piesenled al
confeience on Slialegy and Docliine in Russian Secuiily IoIicy,
Il. McNaii, NalionaI Defense Univeisily, Washinglon, DC, }une
28, 2O1O.

24. Iiojeclions suggesl lhal lelveen nov and 2O25, Russias
pooI of diafl age nanpovei viII decIine al an even faslei iale
lhan lhe iale foi lhe geneiaI popuIalion. The inpIicalions of lhis
foi lhe size and conposilion of Russias fuluie foices aie liaced
in OIga OIikei, Keilh Ciane, LoveII H. Schvailz, and Calheiine
Yusupov, Russian |crcign Pc|icq. Scurccs and |np|ica|icns, Sanla
Monica, CA, RAND, 2OO9, pp. 145-151.
25. Ioi an assessnenl of lhe 2O1O docliine on lhis poinl, see
NikoIai Sokov, The Nev, 2O1O Russian MiIilaiy Docliine: The
NucIeai AngIe, Monleiey, CA: Cenlei foi NonpioIifeialion Slud3
ies, Monleiey Inslilule of InleinalionaI Sludies, Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion cns.niis.cdu/s|crics/100205_russian_nuc|car_dcc|rinc.
n|n. See aIso, Tnc Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn, 0%0&63
alIe fion uuu.Krcn|in.ru, Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia
Lisl 2O1O, #35, Ieliuaiy 19, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscn
s|arpcucr.nc|.
26. Sokov, NucIeai Weapons in Russian Secuiily Slialegy,
p. 5.
454
27. Accoiding lo sone expeils, Russians do nol have a uni3
hed viev of lheii foieign poIicy oljeclives, lul a lioad consen3
sus eneiged duiing Iulins second lein aloul Russias foieign
poIicy goaIs. See OIikei c|. a|., Russian |crcign Pc|icq, pp. 83-138,
esp. p. 87. See aIso Andeis AsIund and Andiev Kulchins, Tnc
Russia 8a|ancc Sncc|, Washinglon, DC: Ieleison Inslilule foi In3
leinalionaI Lcononics and Cenlei foi Slialegic and InleinalionaI
Sludies, ApiiI, 2OO9, and Slephen }. Iank, Russia and Arns Ccn-
|rc|. Arc Tncrc Oppcr|uni|ics fcr |nc Ooana Adninis|ra|icn? CaiIisIe,
IA: Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege, Maich
2OO9, foi addilionaI peispeclive on Russian oljeclives peilinenl lo
nalionaI secuiily and nucIeai ains conlioI.
28. See Russia IiohIe WeekIy Lxpeils IaneI: Russias Nev
Ioieign IoIicy Docliine, inlioduclion ly VIadinii IioIov, in
Russia Prcj|c, May 21, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.russiaprcj|c.crg9
in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #1O1, May 24, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
29. |oid.
3O. Tienin, quoled in IioIov c| a|.9 Russia Prcj|c, May 24, 2O1O.
31. Tsygankov connenlaiy in Russia IiohIe WeekIy Lx3
peils IaneI: Russias Nev Ioieign IoIicy Docliine, inlioduclion
ly VIadinii IioIov, in Russia Prcj|c, May 21, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.russiaprcj|c.crg, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #1O1, May 24,
2O1O, avaiIalIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
32. Lozansky connenlaiy in |oid.
33. Iank connenlaiy in |oid.
34. Ioi an expeil assessnenl, see MaIcoIn ChaIneis and Si3
non Lunn, NATOs Tac|ica| Nuc|car Di|cnna, London, UK: RoyaI
Uniled Seivices Inslilule, OccasionaI Iapei, Maich 2O1O, avaiIalIe
1+/8 uuu.rusi.crg. Ieilinenl hisloiicaI and lechnicaI lackgiound
is given in Hans M. Kiislensen, U.S Nuc|car lcapcns in |urcpc.
A Rcticu cf Pcs|-Cc|d lar Pc|icq, |crcc |ctc|s, and lar P|anning9
Washinglon, DC: NaluiaI Resouices Defense CounciI, Ieliuaiy
2OO5.
455
35. MiIilaiy dangeis cieale condilions vheie lhieals aie
possilIe, vheieas niIilaiy lhieals exisl vheie lheie is a ieaI3
islic possiliIily of ained conicl aiising. See CiIes, pp. 4-5, and,
Tnc Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn Apprctcd oq Russian
|cdcra|icn Prcsidcn|ia| |dic|, Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O, Iail I, No. 6, Lng3
Iish liansIalion avaiIalIe fion uuu.sras.crg/ni|i|arq_dcc|rinc_rus-
sian_fcdcra|icn_2010.
36. Richaid Weilz, Slialegy and Docliine in Russian Secuiily
IoIicy, papei piesenled al confeience on Slialegy and Docliine
in Russian Secuiily IoIicy, Il. McNaii, NalionaI Defense Uni3
veisily, Washinglon, DC, }une 28, 2O1O, pp. 25-27, piovides an
insighlfuI discussion.
37. IaveI K. aev, Russias Secuiily ReIalions vilh lhe U.S.:
Iuluies IIanned and UnpIanned, papei piesenled al confeience
on Slialegy and Docliine in Russian Secuiily IoIicy, Il. McNaii,
NalionaI Defense Univeisily, Washinglon, DC, }une 28, 2O1O, p. 8.
38. Sokov, NucIeai Weapons in Russian Secuiily Slialegy,
pp. 7-8. See aIso Weilz, Slialegy and Docliine in Russian Secuii3
ly IoIicy, pp. 25-27, and aev, Russias Secuiily ReIalions vilh
lhe U.S.: IIanned and UnpIanned, pp. 7-8.
39. NATO 2020. Assurcd Sccuri|q, Dqnanic |ngagcncn|, Ana|q-
sis and Rcccnncnda|icns cf |nc Grcup cf |xpcr|s cn a Ncu S|ra|cgic
Ccnccp| fcr NATO, iusseIs, eIgiun: Noilh AlIanlic Tiealy Oiga3
nizalion, May 17, 2O1O, p. 43.
4O. |oid.
41. |oid.
42. Maik LandIei, U.S. Resisls Iush ly AIIies foi TaclicaI
NucIeai Culs, Ncu Ycr| Tincs, ApiiI 22, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion
uuu.nq|incs.ccn/2010/04/23/ucr|d/curcpc/23dip|c.n|n|.
43. Kipp, Russias NucIeai Iosluie and lhe Thieal Thal Daie
nol Speak Ils Nane. See aIso |oid., p. 3, foi Russian nucIeai de3
pIoynenls on non-Luiopean slialegic axes, incIuding (anong
olheis) lhe Sileiian and Iai Laslein fedeiaI disliicls.
456
44. See Ceoige Ieikovich, Aflei Iiague: Whals Nexl
foi Ains ConlioI` |n|crna|icna| Hcra|d Triounc, ApiiI 7, 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.carncgiccndcuncn|.crg/puo|ica|icns/indcx.
cfn?fa=ticucid=40532.
45. On Iians piogiess lovaid lhe capaliIily foi nucIeai vea3
ponizalion and ieIaled issues, see |rans Nuc|car and Missi|c Pc|cn-
|ia|. A ]cin| Tnrca| Asscssncn| oq U.S. and Russian Tccnnica| |xpcr|s9
Nev Yoik: Lasl-Wesl Inslilule, May 2OO9, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
cui.infc, and Iians NucIeai TinelalIe, |ran la|cn, updaled Iel3
iuaiy 23, 2O1O, and ieguIaiIy, avaiIalIe fion uuu.iranua|cn.crg/
curpuos/ar|ic|cs/iranuc|car|inc|ao|c.n|n|. Ioi possilIe scenaiios if
dipIonacy faiIs, see Anlhony Coidesnan, |ran, |srac| and |nc |f-
fcc|s cf a Nuc|car Ccnic| in |nc Midd|c |as|, Washinglon, DC: Cen3
lei foi Slialegic and InleinalionaI Sludies, }une 1, 2OO9, esp. pp.
5-8 and 32-46. On Noilh Koiea, see Leon V. SigaI, Lels Make
a DeaI, Tnc Ancrican |n|crcs| Magazinc, }anuaiy-Ieliuaiy 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion |nc-ancrican-in|crcs|.ccn/ar|ic|c-od.cfn?piccc=767,
and Andiev ScoleII and }ohn M. Sanfoid, Ncr|n Kcrcas Mi|i|arq
Tnrca|. Pqcngqangs Ccntcn|icna| |crccs, lcapcns cf Mass Dcs|ruc-
|icn, and 8a||is|ic Missi|cs, CaiIisIe, IA: U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege,
Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, ApiiI 2OO7.
46. Heniy SokoIski, Moving Tovaid Zeio and Ainaged3
don` Chap. 5, in SokoIski, ed., Rcticuing |nc Nuc|car Ncnprc|if-
cra|icn Trca|q, CaiIisIe, IA: Slialegic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy
Wai CoIIege, May 2O1O, pp. 77-1O1, cilalion fion p. 87.
47. Ioi possilIe dangeis and palhvays lo nucIeai hisl use, see
Ceoige H. Queslei, Nuc|car |irs| S|ri|c. Ccnscqucnccs cf a 8rc|cn
Taocc, aIlinoie, MD: }ohns Hopkins Univeisily Iiess, 2OO6. On
lhe concepl of a nucIeai laloo, see Nina TannenvaId, Tnc Nuc|car
Taocc. Tnc Uni|cd S|a|cs and |nc Ncn-Usc cf Nuc|car lcapcns Sincc
1945, Canliidge UK: Canliidge Univeisily Iiess, 2OO7, esp. pp.
327-36O.
48. See Ciahan AIIison, Nuc|car Tcrrcrisn. Tnc U||ina|c Prc-
tcn|ao|c Ca|as|rcpnc, Nev Yoik: Heniy HoIl, Tines ooks, 2OO4,
pp. 61-63.
49. Ioi infoinalive discussion on lhis poinl, see Iank, Russia
and Arns Ccn|rc|, and }oseph Ciiincione, 8cno Scarc. Tnc His|crq
457
and |u|urc cf Nuc|car lcapcns, Nev Yoik: CoIunlia Univeisily
Iiess, 2OO7.
5O. Ioi U.S. foice nodeinizalion pIans peilinenl lo lhe Nev
START agieenenl of ApiiI, 2O1O, see Nuc|car Pcs|urc Rcticu Rc-
pcr|, pp. 19-27. Ioi Russian possiliIilies, see Iodvig, Nev START
Tiealy in Nunleis, fion his lIog, Russian s|ra|cgic nuc|car fcrccs9
ApiiI 9, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion russianfcrccs.crg/o|cg/2010/03/ncu_
s|ar|_|rca|q_in_nunocrs.sn|n|, and Iodvig, Russias nev ains
deveIopnenl, 8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, }anuaiy 16, 2OO9,
avaiIalIe fion |ncou||c|in.crg/uco-cdi|icn/cc|unnis|s/patc|-pcdtig/
russias-ncu-arns-dctc|cpncn|.
51. Trca|q oc|uccn |nc Uni|cd S|a|cs cf Ancrica and |nc Russian
|cdcra|icn cn Mcasurcs fcr |nc |ur|ncr Rcduc|icn and |ini|a|icn cf
S|ra|cgic Offcnsitc Arns, Washinglon, DC: U.S. Depailnenl of
Slale, ApiiI 8, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.s|a|c.gct/dccuncn|s/crga-
niza|icn/140035.pdf.
52. CialefuI acknovIedgnenl is nade lo Di. }anes Scouias
foi use of his AWSM nodeI foi naking caIcuIalions and diav3
ing giaphs peilinenl lo lhis sludy. He is nol iesponsilIe foi any
aigunenls oi opinions heie. AddilionaI infoinalion aloul lhis
nodeI vilh peilinenl iIIuslialion appeais in Slephen }. CinlaIa
and }anes Scouias, A Ncu Nuc|car Ccn|urq, Weslpoil, CT: Iiaegei
IulIisheis, 2OO2, pp. 25-73.
53. Ioi peilinenl iefeiences and connenlaiy on lhis poinl,
see MichaeI ohn, The KienIins Shock Tioops, Mcsccu Tincs9
May 6, 2O1O, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #89, May 6, 2O1O, avaiI3
alIe fion datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
54. ohn, The KienIins Shock Tioops.
55. RacheI OsvaId, COI Senalois Renain Waiy of U.S.-Rus3
sian Ains ConlioI DeaI, avaiIalIe fion uuu.g|coa|sccuri|qncus-
uirc.crg, in }ohnsons Russia Lisl 2O1O, #87, May 4, 2O1O, avaiIalIe
1+/8 datidjcnnscns|arpcucr.nc|.
56. An aigunenl in favoi of a nuIli-causaI expIanalion foi
CoId Wai and posl-CoId Wai oulcones in nucIeai poIicy and
slialegy is effecliveIy piesenled in MichaeI Kiepon, 8c||cr Safc
|nan Scrrq. Tnc |rcnics cf |iting ui|n |nc 8cno, Slanfoid, CA: Slan3
foid Univeisily Iiess, 2OO9.
57. In addilion lo souices pieviousIy ciled, exceIIenl dis3
cussions on lhis lopic appeai in AIexei Ailalov, Teins of Ln3
gagenenl: Weapons of Mass Desliuclion IioIifeialion and U.S.-
Russian ReIalions, Chap. 5, pp. 139-168, and Slephen }. Iank,
Iiospecls foi Russo-Aneiican Coopeialion in HaIling NucIeai
IioIifeialion, Chap. 6, pp. 169-284, lolh in Slephen }. Iank, ed.,
Prcspcc|s fcr U.S.-Russian Sccuri|q Cccpcra|icn, CaiIisIe, IA: Sliale3
gic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege, Maich 2OO9.
58. AIlhough ofhciaI U.S. poIicy hoIds lhal Iian shouId nol
le peinilled lo ollain nucIeai veapons, lhe Uniled Slales aIso
hedges againsl lhe possiliIily of a nucIeai Iian, incIuding pIans
1/+ 8&((&6# ,#.#7.&/- 0-, ,#1#-(# (5(.#8( 0-, /."#+ 8&6&.0+5 .&#(
lo Ieisian CuIf slales and Olanas ievised nissiIe defense pIan
foi Luiope. See U.S. Consideis Oplions Againsl NucIeai Iian,
Associaled Iiess, ApiiI 23, 2O1O, avaiIalIe fion uuu.cosncus.ccn/
s|crics/2010/04/20/pc|i|ics/nain6414377.sn|n|.
458
459
6L4:=82 KJ
RUSSIAS NUCLEAR POSTURE AND THE
THREAT THAT DARE NOT SPEAK ITS NAME
1
Jacob W. Kipp
The oveivheIning focus of lhe Iiniled Weslein
viilings on lhe conlenpoiaiy Russian niIilaiy and ils
nucIeai foices is piedoninanlIy Luiopean. This exisls
in spile of lhe facl lhal Russia undei VIadinii Iulin
and Dnilii Medvedev has piocIained ilseIf a Luiasian
povei. Weslein connenlaiy on lhe Russo-Ceoigian
Conicl of Augusl 2OO8 highIighls lhis lendency. The
conicl in lhis conlexl lecones aloul Ceoigias desiie
lo join lhe Wesl via nenleiship in lhe Noilh AlIan3
lic Tiealy Oiganizalion (NATO) and Russias niIilaiy
iesponse~aIlhough ained al lhe Ceoigian govein3
nenl undei Iiesidenl MikhaiI SaakashviIIi and lhe
Ceoigian Ained Ioices~inlended lo undeinine U.S.
and NATO inleiesls in Luiope.
2
The sane can le said
aloul lhe Olana adninislialions iesel of U.S.-Rus3
sian ieIalions and lhe enphasis pIaced upon ieaching
an agieenenl on offensive nucIeai foices, vhich aie
a Iegacy of lhe niIilaiized CoId Wai confionlalion in
Luiope. Olanas addiess in Iiague in 2OO9 spoke of
lhe pionise of a gIolaI zeio foi nucIeai veapons,
lul lhe appioach lo Russia focused upon slialegic of3
1#-(&%# -276#0+ 1/+7#( ./ ."# #)762(&/- /1 .07.&706 0-,
lhealei nucIeai ains. The Ianguage of lhe liealy sliess3
es neasuies lo ensuie slialegic slaliIily lelveen lhe
lvo signaloiies, even as lhe gIolaI secuiily enviion3
nenl has noved fion lipoIai, lhiough unipoIai lo an
eneiging nuIlipoIai syslen. The iecenlIy pulIished
Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq does seen lo iecognize lhis
46O
nuIlipoIai conlexl and speaks of Russia as a iegionaI
pailnei aIong vilh China, India, and olhei incieas3
ingIy inuenliaI nalions such as iaziI, Soulh Afiica,
and Indonesia.
3
The docunenl speaks of Russia as a
pailnei foi lhe Uniled Slales in Luiope and Asia in
lhe conlexl of hghling leiioiisn and pioviding slaliI3
ily foi Afghanislan lul nol in leins of Iaigei Asian
secuiily lhenes, Ieaving lhe inpiession lhal lhe While
House does nol envision an Asian dinension lo lhe
pailneiship.
4

Indeed, vhiIe lhe posl-CoId Wai voiId has noved
fion a lipoIai syslen, lhiough a unipoIai one, lo nuI3
lipoIaiily, lhe U.S.-Russian secuiily diaIogue has leen
ienaikalIy Luio-cenliic, vhelhei il vas aloul sliale3
gic pailneiship, NATO-Russian coopeialion, Russian
hosliIily lo NATO expansion and oul-of-aiea opeia3
lions, oi lhe U.S. depIoynenl of anli-laIIislic nissiIe
(AM) assels inlo CenliaI Luiope.
5
In facl, lhis siIence
in lhe Wesl can le pul al Moscovs ovn dooi. OnIy
lhis spiing, a gioup of NATO eIdeis visiled Moscov
lo discuss NATOs nev Slialegic Concepl shoilIy
aflei lhe pulIicalion of Russias nev Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc9
vhich had once again liealed NATO as a dangei and
lhieal lecause of lhe aclions il had laken on lhe pe3
iipheiy of Russia, incIuding NATO expansion.
6
Dui3
ing lhe conveisalions Ied ly foinei U.S. Secielaiy of
Slale MadeIeine AIliighl and lhe Vice Chaii of lhe
Lxpeil Cioup, }eioen van dei Veei, lhe foinei Chief
Lxeculive Ofhcei (CLO) of RoyaI Dulch SheII, lhe
eIdeis had asked lhe Russian ofhciaIs and schoIais
vilh vhon lhey nel aloul Russian peiceplions of lhe
gioving povei and inuence of lhe IeopIes Repul3
Iic of China (IRC). The ofhciaI and unofhciaI Russian
iesponse vas a sludied siIence. The conveisalion did
nol lianscend lhe issues dividing Russian and NATO
peispeclives on Luiopean secuiily.
7

461
Russian foieign poIicy connenlaiy on Chinese-
Russian ieIalions conlinues lo sliess lhe eIenenls of
*0+.-#+("&* 7/8*+&(# ."# &-.#+#(.( /1 ."# .'/ (.0.#( &-
nuIlipoIaiily lo counlei Aneiican hegenony, even as
U.S. poIicy undei Olana has sliessed inleinalionaI en3
gagenenl and a iesel vilh Russia, and even lhough
neilhei Moscov noi eijing desiied lhal lhe Shang3
hai Coopeialion Oiganizalion (SCO) vouId lecone
an anli-Weslein niIilaiy aIIiance. The onIy negalive
poinl nade ly AIeksandi Lukin in an assessnenl of
lhose liIaleiaI ieIalions vas lhal China vouId, fion
line lo line, encouiage Russia lo lake anli-Weslein
aclions lhal China ilseIf vouId nol do.
8
Tvo Canadian
schoIais in a iecenl ieviev of Sino-Russian ieIalions
concIuded lhal lhe slialegic pailneiship lelveen
Moscov and eijing vas lased on ieaIpoIilik focused
on counleiing U.S. inuence and lhe schoIais did nol
see any piospecl foi a deepening ieIalionship in lhe
shoil- oi nid-lein fuluie lecause of lhe conlinuing
disliusl lelveen China and Russia.
9
Weslein olseiv3
eis have seen noie lension lelveen Russia and China
in CenliaI Asia. }effiey Mankoff and LeIand R. MiIIei
have viillen of lhe liIaleiaI conpelilion lelveen
China and Russia, lheiely affoiding lhe Uniled Slales
8/+# +//8 ./ 80-#2%#+ */6&.&70665 0-, #7/-/8&70665
in lhal iegion.
10

Sone Russian aulhois have iaised an aIain ovei
an eneiging secuiily chaIIenge lo Russias Iai Lasl
fion a Chinese niIilaiy lhal aIieady has lhe naiks of a
niIilaiy supeipovei in conpaiison vilh Russias ovn
convenlionaI foices. AIeksandi Khianchikhin spoke
of a Chinese niIilaiy lhal conlined nass and nodein
lechnoIogy depIoyed aIong Russias easlein fionlieis
al a line vhen il vas evidenl lhal China no Iongei had
lo conlenpIale using niIilaiy foice lo iegain Taivan.
11

462
Ioi veII ovei 2 decades, Soviel and Russian niIilaiy
pIanneis have Iooked upon laclicaI nucIeai foices as
lhe uIlinale guaianloi of Russian secuiily in lhe Lasl.
Ioi lhe Iasl 15 yeais, lhe nalionaI poIilicaI and niIilaiy
eIile have leen agieed lhal lheie vas no convenlionaI
niIilaiy lhieal fion China, lecause of inpioved ie3
Ialions. ul lhal silualion has leen changing iapidIy
ovei lhe Iasl seveiaI yeais. Indeed, even as Russias
Minisliy of Defense and CeneiaI Slaff piepaie lo con3
ducl a slialegic-opeialionaI exeicise lhis sunnei,
Voslok-2O1O, lheie has leen ienaikalIe siIence on lhe
exeicises scenaiio.
12
The issue of advanced Chinese convenlionaI ca3
paliIilies has foiced a ieconsideialion of Moscovs
niIilaiy iesponse. These lensions, in conjunclion vilh
olhei eneiging niIilaiy liansfoinalions anong non-
Luiopean nucIeai poveis, shouId highIighl lhe dif3
hcuIlies associaled vilh slaliIily oulside of lhe nain
Luiopean fianevoik, vhich lecone even noie con3
pIex in Russias Asian fionlieis. NucIeai disainanenl,
'"&7" ,/#( 0,,+#(( ."# 8&6&.0+53.#7"-&706 +#%/62.&/-
0((/7&0.#, '&." 0,%0-7#, 7/-%#-.&/-06 '#0*/-(9 &-3
foinalizalion, and nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie viII nol
0,,+#(( ."# 827" 8/+# 7/8*6&70.#, +/6# ."0. -276#0+
veapons viII le expecled lo pIay as an insliunenl of
lhealei deleiience.
In lhis conlexl, Russias nucIeai aisenaI ienains,
hovevei, a key vaiialIe in Luiasian secuiily. Al pies3
enl, lhal aisenaI is eslinaled lo le signihcanlIy snaIIei
lhan lhe 4O,OOO lhal exisled al lhe end of lhe CoId Wai,
lul is ceilainIy in excess of 14,OOO veapons, incIuding
3,113 slialegic vaiheads and 2,O79 nonslialegic vai3
heads depIoyed and anolhei 8,OOO in sloiage oi vail3
ing lo le disnanlIed as of 2OO8.
13
A signihcanl poilion
of lhese aie sloied easl of lhe UiaIs and foin a na3
463
joi conponenl of Russias geoslialegic posluie in lhe
non-Luiopean slialegic axes vhich incIude lhe Cau3
casus, CenliaI Asia, Sileiia, lhe Russian Iai Lasl, and
lhe Aiclic.
14
Wilh iegaid lo Asian secuiily, lhe nucIeai
veapons depIoyed and sloied in lhe Sileiian IedeiaI
and lhe Iai Laslein IedeiaI Okiugs foin lhe lasis of
Russias lhealei nucIeai foices. These foices incIude
lhe nucIeai veapons of lhe Russian Iacihc IIeel, Aii
Ioice, Slialegic Rockel Ioices, and lhe Ainy.
15
!"#
."#0.#+ +/6# ."0. ."#(# 1/+7#( '&66 *605 &- 70(# /1 0+8#,
conicl vilh lhe IRC has leen candidIy desciiled ly
AIeksandi Khianchikhin.
16
Al piesenl, lhe Russian Minisliy of Defense and
lhe CeneiaI Slaff aie in lhe piocess of iedehning lhose
slialegic axes, and lhey aie ieducing lhe nunlei of
8&6&.0+5 ,&(.+&7.( 1+/8 (&) ./ 1/2+9 0-, ."#5 0+# 7+#3
aling opeialionaI-slialegic connands in each. They
incIude: lhe Weslein, coveiing Luiope vilh ils head3
quaileis in Sl. Ieleisluig, lhe Soulhein, coveiing lhe
Iack Sea, Caucasus, and Caspian vilh ils headquai3
leis in Roslov-on-Don, lhe CenliaI, coveiing CenliaI
Asia vilh ils headquaileis in Yekaleiinluig, and lhe
Laslein, coveiing lhe Iai Lasl and Iacihc Ocean vilh
ils headquaileis in Khalaiovsk. This concepl vas
lesled in conjunclion vilh Voslok-2O1O, a najoi ex3
eicise in Sileiia lhal lhe Russian Iai Lasl Connand
conducled in Iale }une and eaiIy }uIy.
17
Since 1999,
Russia has conducled opeialionaI-slialegic exeicises
deaIing vilh ils veslein slialegic diieclion on a iegu3
Iai lasis. Those exeicises have incIuded lhe hisl use of
nucIeai veapons lo de-escaIale and liing aloul con3
icl leininalion in a scenaiio invoIving a convenlionaI
allack upon Russia fion lhe Wesl ly coaIilion foices
."0. #-4/5 .07.&7063.#7"-&706 =206&.0.&%# (2*#+&/+&.5
ovei Russian convenlionaI foices. The Iiniled nucIeai
464
sliikes seened lo have leen designed lo disiupl con3
80-,9 7/-.+/69 7/882-&70.&/-(9 7/8*2.#+(9 0-, &-.#63
Iigence, suiveiIIance, and ieconnaissance (C4ISR) and
piecision sliike capaliIilies of lhe aggiessoi foices in
oidei lo haIl lhe allack.
18
Voslok-2O1O vas lhe hisl lo
addiess lhe Laslein slialegic diieclion and has leen
0((/7&0.#, '&." ."# &8*6#8#-.0.&/- /1 ."# 8&6&.0+5
nev Iook chanpioned ly Minislei of Defense Ana3
loIy Seidyukov and Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff CeneiaI
NikoIai Makaiov as pail of lhe liansfoinalion of lhe
Russian niIilaiy inlo a liigade-cenliic foice, capalIe
of conducling advanced convenlionaI opeialions and
nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie.
19
As one of lhe Russian ie3
foineis desciiled lhe nev Iook, il vas a ganlIe on
lhe naluie of lhe fuluie vai, vhich lhe Russian Ainy
vouId face.
20

The nolivalion lehind lhis shifl in diieclion is nol
niIilaiy-lechnoIogicaI deveIopnenl in lhe Wesl lul
a deep ieappiaisaI of lhe secuiily silualion in Rus3
sian Sileiia and lhe Iai Lasl. In an ailicIe devoled lo
Russias Laslein Vecloi, CeneiaI Makhnul Caieev
poinled lo lhe eneigence of NATO as a gIolaI secu3
iily oiganizalion vilh a foolpiinl in CenliaI Asia as a
iesuIl of lhe Afghan Wai, and he piedicled lhal lheie
viII le iising lensions lelveen a U.S.-Ied NATO and
lhe IRC. WhiIe he focused on NATOs nonniIilaiy
neans of exeiling inuence, pailicuIaiIy on lhe nodeI
of lhe coIoi ievoIulions in Ukiaine and Ceoigia lhal
had lioughl iegines hosliIe lo Russia lo povei, his
piinaiy focus vas on lhe unIeashing of ained conicl
in iegions vheie Russia vas Iacking in conlal polen3
liaI, especiaIIy conlal ieadiness.
21
@0+##% +#.2+-#, ./
lhe lhene of conlal ieadiness in a foIIov-on ailicIe
aloul Iessons Ieained fion lhe Cieal Ialiiolic Wai.
In addilion lo ciling lhe suipiise allack of Nazi Cei3
465
nany in 1941, Caieev poinled lo lhe oullieak of IocaI
hghling lelveen lhe Soviel Union and lhe IRC aIong
lhe Anui Rivei in 1969 lhal foiced lhe noliIizalion
of an enliie niIilaiy disliicl. He aIso noled lhe iisks
&-%/6%#, '"#- -0.&/-06 */6&.&706 6#0,#+("&* ,&, -/.
0**+#7&0.# ."# 8&6&.0+53*/6&.&706 (&.20.&/- ."#5 '#+#
addiessing vhen lhey oideied lhe use of foice. Ca3
+##% ,+#' 0..#-.&/- ./ ."# ,#7&(&/- ./ &-.#+%#-# 8&6&3
laiiIy in Afghanislan in 1979 and lhe decision lo inlei3
vene in Chechnya in 1994. In lolh Afghanislan and
Chechnya, lhe goveinnenls lIundeied inlo vais lhal
lhey did nol vanl, lecause lhey faiIed lo undeisland
lhe inpIied lasks lhal foIIoved fion lhe iniliaI oidei
and faiIed in lheii poIilicaI guidance lo lake inlo ac3
counl lhe ieaI silualion on lhe giound. The ieIevance
of lhese Iessons fion aII foui conicls is lhe naluie of
lhe liue conneclion lelveen poIilics and slialegy:
The hnaI and decisive void leIongs lo lhe poIilicaI
Ieadeiship lul in lhe voiking oul of lhe nosl inpoi3
.0-. 8&6&.0+53*/6&.&706 ,#7&(&/-(9 8&6&.0+5 *+/1#((&/-06(
and olhei speciaIisls nusl lake pail, olheivise poIicy
viII nol appIy lo lhe ieaI Iife. And lhe nain poinl is lhal
poIilicians and dipIonals aie olIiged lo cieale favoi3
alIe condilions foi lhe aclions of lhe Ained Ioices.
22

On lhe issue of nev Iook, Caieev endoised ils
conlenl, i.e., lhe ciealion of piecision-sliike veapons
and lhe necessaiy lechnoIogicaI lase lo suppoil lhe
conducl of nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie. Al lhe sane line,
he caIIed foi lhe voiking oul and inpIenenlalion of a
noie aclive and decisive slialegy, and opeialionaI ail,
0-, .07.&7( (/ 0( ./ &8*/(# 2*/- ."# #-#85 ."/(# 073
lions, incIuding conlacl vaifaie, vhich he nosl seeks
lo avoid.
23
In lhis iegaid, conlal ieadiness lecones
/-# /1 ."# *+&80+5 7/-7#+-( /1 8&6&.0+5 *+/1#((&/-3
466
aIs, since conlal polenliaI, vhen nol Iinked lo acluaI
conlal ieadiness, can cieale a faIse appiecialion of lhe
niIilaiy povei avaiIalIe. Heie lhe nalions capacily lo
noliIize addilionaI niIilaiy povei dehnes ils aliIily
lo nanage lhe escaIalion of a IocaI conicl lovaid a
decision in keeping vilh nalionaI inleiesls.
24

This is supposed lo le lhe exacl focus of
Voslok-2O1O.
25
The nev Iook niIilaiy, vhich lhe
Minisliy of Defense has sel oul lo cieale via a liigade-
lased giound foice capalIe of Iaunching piecision
sliikes and conducling nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie fac3
es a pailicuIai chaIIenge in Sileiia and lhe Iai Lasl,
vheie Chinese niIilaiy nodeinizalion has noved lhe
IeopIes Lileialion Ainy (ILA) fion a nass indus3
liiaI ainy luiIl lo hghl peopIes vai lo lhal of an ainy
seeking lo ieain ilseIf as an advanced convenlionaI
foice and lo conducl lheii ovn veision of nelvoik-
cenliic vaifaie. A yeai ago, infoined Russian defense
jouinaIisls sliII spoke of lhe ILA as a nass indusliiaI
ainy seeking niche advanced convenlionaI capaliIi3
lies. Looking al lhe lhieal enviionnenl lhal vas as3
suned lo exisl undei Zapad 2OO9, defense jouinaIisl
Dnilii Lilovkin spoke of Russian foices confionling
lhiee dislincl lypes of niIilaiy lhieals:
.an opponenl ained lo NATO slandaids in lhe Ceoi3
gian-Russian confionlalion ovei Soulh Osselia Iasl
yeai. In lhe easlein slialegic diieclion Russian foices
vouId IikeIy face a nuIli-niIIion-nan ainy vilh a
liadilionaI appioach lo lhe conducl of conlal: Iineai
depIoynenls vilh Iaige concenlialions of nanpovei
and hiepovei on diffeienl axes. In lhe soulhein sliale3
gic diieclion, Russian foices expecl lo confionl iiiegu3
Iai foices and salolage gioups hghling a pailisan vai
againsl lhe oigans of IedeiaI aulhoiily, i.e., inleinaI
lioops, lhe loidei palioI, and lhe Russian IedeiaI Se3
cuiily Seivice (IS).
26

467
y lhe spiing of 2OO9, a nunlei of lhose invoIved
in liinging aloul lhe nev Iook veie speaking of
a ILA lhal vas noving iapidIy lovaids a high-lech
convenlionaI foice vilh ils ovn undeislanding of nel3
voik-cenliic vaifaie.
27
Moieovei, lhe ILA conducled
a najoi exeicise, Sliide-2OO9, vhich Iooked lo sone
Russian olseiveis Iike a ieheaisaI foi niIilaiy inlei3
venlion againsl CenliaI Asia and/oi Russia.
28
Speaking aloul lhe depIoynenl of lvo nevIy-
oiganized liigades aIong lhe Russian-Chinese loidei
on lhe Iikulsk-Chila Axis, Lieulenanl-CeneiaI VIadi3
nii VaIenlinovich Chiikin, lhe iecenlIy appoinled
connandei of lhe Sileiian MiIilaiy Disliicl, slaled
lhal lhe liigades veie depIoyed lheie lo counlei lhe
piesence of hve ILA conlined ains ainies acioss lhe
loidei. Iion 2OO3 lo 2OO7, Chiikin connanded an
ainy in lhe Sileiian niIilaiy disliicl. On lhe ialionaIe
foi lhe depIoynenl, Chiikin slaled: We aie olIigaled
lo keep lioops lheie lecause on lhe olhei side of lhe
oidei aie hve Chinese ainies, and ve cannol ignoie
lhal opeialionaI diieclion. He added lhal lhe Min3
isliy of Defense inlended lo deveIop an ainy head3
quaileis foi connand and conlioI of lhe liigades.
29

In a ieIaled iepoil, Chiikin desciiled lhe ILA foices
acioss lhe loidei as conposed of lhiee divisions and
1O lank, nechanized, and infanliy liigades, vhich he
desciiled as nol IillIe, lul aIso nol a sliike foice. As
lo lhe ioIe of lhe nev liigades, Chiikin pul lhen as
*0+. /1 0 ,#.#++#-. 1/+7# 0&8#, 0( 1+&#-,65 +#8&-,#+ ./
lhe IRC lhal: . . . despile lhe fiiendIy ieIalions vilh
China, oui ainy connand undeislands lhal fiiend3
ship is possilIe onIy vilh sliong counliies, lhal is
vhose (sic) vho can quiel a fiiend dovn vilh a con3
venlionaI oi nucIeai cIul.
30

468
The ganlIe on lhe naluie of fuluie vai desciiled
ly AIeksandi Kondialev in suppoiling lhe deveIop3
nenl of nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie capaliIilies, cones
dovn lo lhe issue of Russias capacily lo ain, cieale,
liain, depIoy, and keep conlal ieady foices capalIe
of conducling advanced convenlionaI vaifaie. In lhe
alsence of such foices, lhe deleiience equalion is ie3
duced lo lhe ciediliIily of lhe nucIeai oplion foi de3
leiiing convenlionaI allacks. Civen lhe econonic and
denogiaphic ieaIilies of Sileiia and lhe Russian Iai
Lasl, Russia seeks ly non-niIilaiy neans lo piecIude
lhe eneigence of a Chinese niIilaiy lhieal. Hovevei,
Russian olseives aIso aie avaie of lhe facl lhal an in3
ninenl niIilaiy lhieal fion eijing can eneige oul of
iegionaI inslaliIily, vhich is leyond Russias uniIal3
eiaI neans lo conlioI.
As lhe nosl iecenl Russian Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc of 2O1O
(.0.#(9 -276#0+ '#0*/-( +#80&- ."# *+&80+5 &-(.+23
nenl foi deleiience againsl lolh nucIeai and conven3
lionaI allacks upon Russia and in defense of Russian
inleiesls, leiiiloiiaI inlegiily, and soveieignly.
31
!"#
docliine does nol expIicilIy slale lhal Russia viII use
nucIeai veapons in a pieenplive allack againsl such
lhieals, as had leen discussed ly senioi nenleis of
lhe Secuiily CounciI in lhe faII of 2OO9, lul Ieaves lhe
decision lo use such veapons in lhe hands of lhe Iies3
idenl of lhe Russian Iedeialion. The conlexl of use,
hovevei, is dehned ly lhe naluie of lhe chaIIenges
and lhieals lhal Russia faces acioss Luiasia. A second
cIassihed docunenl, The Ioundalions of Slale IoIicy
in lhe Aiea of NucIeai Deleiience lo 2O2O, vhich vas
&((2#, 0. ."# (08# .&8# 0( ."# Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc9 "0( "0,
poilions Ieaked lo lhe nass nedia. These desciile lvo
.5*#( /1 ."+#0.( ."0. 7/26, 6#0, ./ ."# 2(# /1 -276#0+
veapons: 1) allacks upon vilaI econonic and poIilicaI
469
sliucluies, eaiIy vaining syslens, nalionaI connand
and conlioI, and nucIeai veapons syslens, vhich hls
a U.S.-Ied NATO lhieal invoIving convenlionaI foices
calIe of conducling gIolaI sliikes againsl such laigels,
and 2) duiing an invasion ly an enenys giound unils
onlo Russian leiiiloiy if Russias Ained Ioices aie
incapalIe of slopping lhe eneny piogiess and il pen3
eliales deep inlo lhe counliy lhiough convenlionaI
neans of vaging vai, vhich hls noie cIoseIy vilh an
assauIl ly lhe ILA againsl lhe Russian Iai Lasl.
32
The hisl concepl iesenlIes one popuIaiized ly
CeneiaI-Majoi VIadinii SIipchenko in his discussions
of sixlh-geneialion vaifaie and no-conlacl vaifaie on
lhe nodeI of NATOs canpaign againsl Kosovo, lul
appIied on a gIolaI scaIe.
33
SIipchenko specuIaled on
lhe use of Iong-iange piecision-sliike syslens foi al3
lacks upon eneny econonic, adninislialive, and niIi3
laiy infiasliucluie. The second concepl, vhich vas nol
conlained in lhe 2OOO veision of Russian Mi|i|arq Dcc-
|rinc is quile nev and ieecls vhal lhe Russian niIi3
laiy iecognizes is an eneiging lhieal fion lhe IRC.
In a poIenic vilh SIipchenko in 2OO5, CeneiaI Caieev
discussed such a conicl vhich vouId iequiie lhe
deveIopnenl of a nass noliIizalion lase lo conducl
a pioliacled vai, vhich enpIoyed piecision-sliike
syslens, lul did nol achieve annihiIalion of lhe op3
ponenls foices.
34
olh SIipchenko and Caieev agieed
lhal nucIeai deleiience had lecone seIf-deleiience in
lhe posl-CoId Wai eia.
47O
@46-5O 98!= 45? 84!=
Ioi Russia, vhich inheiiled lhe Soviel nucIeai ai3
senaI, lul has faced a seiious change in ils inleinalion3
aI posilion, lhe nucIeai equalion is, in facl, shaped ly
Russias slalus as a iegionaI povei in a conpIex Lui3
0(&0- (#72+&.5 #-%&+/-8#-.9 '"#+# -276#0+ &((2#( 0+#
nol dehned excIusiveIy ly lhe U.S.-Russian slialegic
nucIeai equalion lul ly secuiily dynanics invoIving
inleiaclions vilh Russias innediale peiipheiy. On
lhe one hand, Russias secuiily iesponses have leen
shaped ly a posl-Soviel decade of shaip inleinaI poIil3
icaI ciises, econonic liansfoinalion, sociaI inslaliIily,
denogiaphic decIine, and lhe coIIapse of convenlionaI
niIilaiy povei. The inpacl of lhese deveIopnenls has
leen uneven acioss Russia, Ieading lo veiy dislincl se3
cuiily enviionnenls, vhich have denanded iegionaI
iesponses. The iniliaI focus of secuiily conceins foi
lolh lhe Soviel Union and lhe Russian Iedeialion
vas piinaiiIy upon Luiopean secuiily. This vas lhe
piinaiy focus of lhe U.S.-Soviel slialegic conpelilion
and lhe pIace vheie ils niIilaiizalion vas nosl evi3
denl.
The end of lhe CoId Wai legan vilh lhe allenpl
lo iefoin lhe Soviel syslen undei MikhaiI Coilachev
ly neans of pcrcs|rci|a 0-, g|asncs| and enliaced lhe
idea of gelling line and space foi iefoin ly ienoving
lhe ideoIogicaI iools of Lasl-Wesl confionlalion fion
Luiope. As piesenled ly AIeksandi YakovIev, one of
Coilachevs key advisois, lhe poIicy invoIved lhe ie3
novaI of lhe piinaiy diivei of Lasl-Wesl conicl, lhe
niIilaiy confionlalion lelveen NATO and lhe Wai3
sav Tiealy Oiganizalion (WTO).
35
DeniIilaiizalion
of lhe CoId Wai in Luiope and Soviel niIilaiy disen3
gagenenl fion inleinalionaI conicls, especiaIIy Af3
471
ghanislan, veie pail of an effoil lo save a syslen lhal
"0, 6/(. ."# 70*07&.5 ./ &--/%0.# 0-, /-65 (2+%&%#, /-
lhe lasis of luieaucialic ineilia and coeicion. Refoin
iisked lolh doneslic and inleinalionaI conpIica3
lions.
36
In Luiope, lhe hisl ieaI indicaloi of successfuI
deniIilaiizalion vas lhe Inleinediale Range NucIeai
Ioices (INI) Tiealy of 1987 vhich aloIished enliie
cIasses of inleinediale-iange nucIeai foices vilh
opeialionaI-slialegic inpacl on lhe Luiopean lhe3
alei, foIIoved ly noves undei lhe Oiganizalion foi
Secuiily and Coopeialion in Luiope (OSCL) lovaid
giealei niIilaiy lianspaiency, and vas lhen consun3
naled ly lhe ConvenlionaI Ioices in Luiope Tiealy
of 199O vhich sel Iinils on foivaid depIoyed conven3
lionaI foices in CenliaI Luiope and on ils anks fion
lhe AlIanlic lo lhe UiaIs.
37

IoIilicaI deveIopnenls, hovevei, nade lhis se3
cuiily iegine olsoIele vhen lhe VeIvel RevoIulions
of 1989 iepIaced goveinnenls aIIied vilh lhe Soviel
Union and Ied lo lhe aloIilion of lhe WTO in Decen3
lei 1991. In lhe neanline, poIilicaI disconlenl and iis3
ing nalionaIisn vilhin lhe Union of Soviel SociaIisl
RepulIics (USSR) undeinined Coilachevs piogian
of giaduaI iefoin and Ied lo a confionlalion lelveen
"0+,6&-#+( /**/(#, ./ 12+."#+ +#1/+8 0-, -0.&/-06&(.(
caIIing foi lolh lhe aloIilion of Soviel povei and lhe
end of lhe Soviel Union. oiis YeIlsin, eIecled Iiesi3
denl of lhe Russian SociaIisl IedeiaI Soviel RepulIic
(RSISR) in }une 1991, lecane lhe spokesnan foi na3
lionaI denocialic opposilion lo lhe exisling Soviel oi3
dei. The allenpled coup ly haidIineis in Augusl 1991
faiIed, and oiis YeIlsin eneiged as Ieadei of a Russian
Iedeialion lhal vas viIIing lo see lhe Soviel Union
aloIished, vhich occuiied on Decenlei 31, 1991. In
a nallei of nonlhs, lhe CoId Wai liIaleiaI inleina3
472
.&/-06 (5(.#8 "0, ("&1.#, ./ 0 2-&*/60+ /+,#+ ,/8&3
naled ly a U.S.-Ied AlIanlic-Luiopean connunily.
The Russian Iedeialion found ilseIf deaIing vilh lhe
disnenleinenl of lhe Soviel Union and lhe iegalh3
eiing of lhe Soviel nucIeai aisenaI undei ils conlioI
and pievenling lhe pioIifeialion of nucIeai veapons,
hssionalIe naleiiaIs, and nucIeai veapons expeilise,
a poIicy suppoiled ly lhe Ceoige H.W. ush and iII
CIinlon adninislialions. Hope of a slialegic pailnei3
ship, vhich ouiished in Washinglon and Moscov in
lhe eaiIy 199Os, vas cooIing ly lhe second haIf of lhe
decade.
On lhe olhei hand, lhe eneigence of lhe Uniled
Slales as lhe soIe supeipovei pul a dislincl conpIica3
lion in Russias iesponses lo lhese iegionaI issues and
6#, ./ #11/+.( ./ 726.&%0.# ."# 7+#0.&/- /1 0 826.&*/60+
counleilaIance lo U.S. inuence. As fianed ly Ioi3
eign Minislei Lvgenii Iiinakov, lhe nev oidei vas
supposed lo iesl on coopeialion anong Moscov, ei3
jing, and Nev DeIhi lo laIance Washinglons gIolaI
inuence. Neilhei Nev DeIhi noi eijing endoised a
poIicy of liiIaleiaI laIancing, lul Moscov and eijing
,&, 8/%# ./'0+,( 0 ,# 107./ (#72+&.5 (5(.#8 '&."
lhe signing of lhe hve-povei Tiealy on Deepening
MiIilaiy Tiusl in oidei Regions in 1996. The agiee3
8#-.9 0 *0+. /1 ."# +#60)0.&/- /1 .#-(&/-( 0((/7&0.#,
vilh lhe end of lhe CoId Wai, vas seen in Moscov
as lhe foundalion foi laIancing in a ieIaliveIy lenign
enviionnenl in CenliaI Asia and lhe Iai Lasl. Rus3
sia enliaced ains saIes lo lhe IRC as a despeialion
neasuie lo keep ils ovn niIilaiy indusliiaI conpIex
fion conpIele coIIapse. In lhe alsence of doneslic
oideis, foieign saIes kepl design luieaus and pioduc3
lion faciIilies opeialionaI. A case in poinl vas lhe saIe
of Su-27M hghleis lo lhe IRC in 1992, vhich kepl lhe
473
design luieau in Moscov and lhe pioduclion pIanl al
Konsonosk-na-Anui open.
38
Russia did nol see lhe
IRC as an innediale niIilaiy lhieal. ConsequenlIy,
il vas inleiesled in ieducing ils ovn foices depIoyed
in lhe Iai Lasl, and vas nosl conceined vilh aveiling
lhe lolaI coIIapse of ils defense indusliy. Iiinakovs
vision of a liiIaleiaI laIancing nechanisn anong
Moscov, eijing, and Nev DeIhi did nol depend upon
ains saIes, lul il piovided geopoIilicaI juslihcalion
foi such saIes lo China and India. Iiinakovs vision
assuned ieIaliveIy slalIe and lenign ieIalions anong
aII lhiee aclois vouId exisl.
39
The Iulin decade of iecoveiy, vhich legan in 1999
and sliII conlinues undei lhe Medvedev-Iulin Tan3
den, vas naiked ly a signihcanl econonic iecoveiy,
inleinaI slaliIily, slale iecenliaIizalion, and unliI veiy
iecenlIy onIy naiginaI inpiovenenls in convenlionaI
niIilaiy povei. Ioi nuch of lhe decade, favoialIe oiI
and gas piices aIIoved Russia lo piaclice Iulins ovn
liand of eneigy dipIonacy acioss Luiasia ly cuIlival3
ing suppIiei-consunei ieIalions vilh najoi poveis,
vhiIe exeicising eneigy discipIine vilh lhe slales on
ils ovn peiipheiy.
40
The decade legan vilh a fun3
danenlaI shifl in lhe conlenl of lhe Russian secuiily
ieIalionship in Asia. The poinl of depailuie vas lhe
disiIIusionnenl vilh Luio-AlIanlic engagenenl aflei
NATO expansion and lhe NATO-conducled aii can3
paign againsl YugosIavia and in lhe face of Russias
vigoious oljeclions lo niIilaiy aclions undeilaken
vilhoul a nandale fion lhe Uniled Nalions Secuiily
CounciI (UNSC). Al lhe sane line, deleiioialing se3
cuiily in lhe Caucasus and CenliaI Asia invoked lhe
need lo cieale a nev secuiily iegine lo covei Asialic
Russia.
41
On lhe one hand, ieneved vai in Chechnya
iaised lhe piospecl of incieased invoIvenenl ly iadi3
474
caI IsIanic eIenenls lheie and acioss lhe Caucasus. In
CenliaI Asia, lhe spiead of IsIanic iadicaIisn ly lhe
TaIilan oul of Afghanislan had caIIed inlo queslion
lhe exisling secuiily sliucluies piovided ly lhe Con3
nonveaIlh of Independenl Slales (CIS). Russia, vhich
had inleivened in lhe Tajik civiI vai of 1992-97 and
heIped vilh lhe Uniled Slales lo liokei a peace sellIe3
nenl lheie, nov found ilseIf faced ly a noie geneiaI
iegionaI IsIanic lhieal, vhich had acluaIIy heIped lo
diive lhe opposing Tajik faclions inlo coopeialion.
Thal lhieal vas lhe spiead of jihad fion Afghanislan
inlo CenliaI Asia. The IRC, vhich faced ils ovn Is3
Ianic sepaialisl lhieal anong lhe Uyghui popuIalion,
vhich nade up a Iaige peicenlage of lhe popuIalion
in Xinjiang, Chinas fionliei iegion vilh CenliaI Asia,
"0, &.( /'- +#0(/-( ./ (2**/+. 7/66#7.&%# (#72+&.5 0+3
iangenenls in lhe Iale 199Os.
In lhis conlexl, in 2OO1, Russia joined vilh foui
olhei CenliaI Asian slales (Kazakhslan, Kyigyzslan,
Tajikislan, and Uzlekislan), and China lo foin lhe
Shanghai Coopeialion Oiganizalion (SCO) vilh an
expiessed nandale lo coopeiale againsl leiioiisn,
sepaialisn, and exlienisn.
42
In addilion lo lhis ie3
gionaI secuiily funclion, lhe SCO aIso lecane a ve3
hicIe foi Moscov and eijing lo expiess lheii conceins
ovei U.S. hegenony in lhe inleinalionaI syslen and
lo cieale a counleiveighl lo NATO as lhe aIIiance
8/%#, 8/+# 07.&%#65 &-./ /2.3/130+#0 /*#+0.&/-( 013
fecling CenliaI Asia, especiaIIy aflei ils inleivenlion
in Afghanislan and lhe U.S. deveIopnenl of lases in
lhe iegion, especiaIIy Uzlekislan and Kyigyzslan.
The lensions lecane pailicuIaiIy acule aflei lhe U.S.
inleivenlion in Iiaq vhen il appeaied lhal lhe Uniled
Slales vas pIanning foi a Iong-lein piesence in lolh
Iiaq and Afghanislan. The acquisilions of nucIeai
475
veapons ly India and Iakislan in 1998 had inlensi3
hed lhe India-Iakislan conicl and lioughl vilh il lhe
possiliIily of a nev gieal gane in CenliaI and Soulh
Asia, pIayed ly nucIeai ained slales and incieasing
lensions anong Moscov, eijing, and Nev DeIhi vilh
lhe Uniled Slales and NATO~veie diieclIy engaged
in Afghanislan.
43

Ioi nosl of lhe decade, Russian ofhciaI Iileialuie
discussing foieign poIicy, nalionaI secuiily slialegy,
and niIilaiy docliine focused upon lhe Uniled Slales
and NATO as lhe chief souices of chaIIenges and
lhieals lo Russian nalionaI secuiily, vilh secondaiy
allenlion given lo inleinaI souices of inslaliIily (ex3
lienisn and sepaialisn) and lo inleinalionaI leiioi3
isn. This ofhciaI posilion nasked vhal veie deveIop3
ing conceins iegaiding lhe secuiily of ils ovn Laslein
Sileiian and Iai Laslein donains. Those secuiily con3
ceins aie iooled in Russias hisloiicaI expeiience vilh
lhis dislanl and ieIaliveIy isoIaled leiiiloiy.
Russian Cossacks pushed inlo lhe Iai Lasl in
lhe nid-17lh cenluiy, and a nelvoik of sellIenenls
spiead. These ienoles Iands veie noie connecled
vilh Moscov ly sea lhan ly Iand, vilh lhe Russian
Navy nainlaining a noninaI piesence lo enfoice Rus3
sian cIains. The inlegialion of lhese iegions inlo In3
peiiaI Russia look a quanlun Ieap in lhe Iasl decade
of lhe 19lh cenluiy vilh lhe consliuclion of lhe Tians-
Sileiian iaiIioad undei lhe Ieadeiship of lhe Minislei
of Iinances Seigei Wille. Wille sav lhe iaiIioad as
lhe key lo lhe Russian deveIopnenl of Sileiia and as
access lo lhe Chinese naikel. Hovevei, lefoie lhose
lenehls couId le ieaped, Russia found ilseIf diavn
inlo inpeiiaI iivaIiies ovei Manchuiia and Koiea,
Ieading lo vai vilh }apan and defeal. Duiing lhe vai,
lhe iaiIioad lecane lhe chief neans of Russian sliale3
476
gic noliIily and undeiscoied lhe need foi lhe deveI3
opnenl of noie infiasliucluie in Laslein Sileiia and
in lhe Iai Lasl. ul lhe lsaiisl iegine coIIapsed in lhe
couise of anolhei vai, and foieign poveis (lhe Uniled
Slales and }apan) found il easy lo inleivene lheie dui3
ing lhe Russian civiI vai, vhich foIIoved lhe oIshe3
vik seizuie of povei and lhe decision lo nake peace
vilh lhe CenliaI Ioveis. oIshevik povei vas sIov
lo consoIidale ils conlioI in lhe Iai Lasl, vhich did nol
cone unliI 1922, vhen lhe }apanese niIilaiy vilhdiev
and lhe Iai Laslein RepulIic, vhich had seived as a
luffei lelveen Soviel leiiiloiy and lhe }apanese zone
of occupalion, vas aloIished.
Undei }oseph SlaIin, lheie vas a najoi effoil al de3
veIoping lhe Soviel Iai Lasl, vhich incIuded lhe no3
liIizalion of lhe KonsonoI (young connunisl) cadie
lo sel up nev sellIenenls, lhe ciealion of vasl nin3
ing and foiesliy piojecls undei lhe Russian IeopIes
Connissaiial of InleinaI Affaiis (NKVD), and, con3
posing lhe isIands in lhe CuIag AichipeIago. Aflei lhe
}apanese occupalion of Manchuiia in 1931, inlensive
effoils veie nade lo slienglhen lhe defenses of lhe
Soviel Iai Lasl and lhe MongoIian IeopIes RepulIic,
an aIIy of lhe Soviel Union fion ils eslalIishnenl in
1924. Soviel foices foughl Iiniled loidei engagenenls
vilh lhe }apanese Kvanlung Ainy in 1938 al Lake
Khasan , neai VIadivoslok, and al KhaIkhin-CoI in lhe
Manchuko-MongoIian loidei in 1939. Duiing WoiId
Wai II, lhe Soviel Iai Lasl vas lhe aiiivaI poinl foi
Iend-Iease naleiiaIs fion lhe Uniled Slales~shipped
on Soviel-agged ships~and seived as lhe slaging
aiea foi lhe Soviel offensive of Augusl 1945 vhich an3
nounced Soviel enliy inlo lhe vai againsl }apan and
Ied lo lhe Soviel occupalion of Manchuiia and Noilh
Koiea and lhe seizuie of lhe soulhein SakhaIin and lhe
477
KuiiI isIands. In lolh Manchuiia and Noilh Koiea, lhe
Soviel niIilaiy piesence faciIilaled lhe eslalIishnenl
of IocaI Connunisl iegines. In lhe poslvai peiiod,
lhe Soviel Iai Lasl conlinued lo le a najoi pail of lhe
CuIag unliI SlaIins dealh and lhe disnanlIing of lhe
canp syslen.
Duiing lhe CoId Wai, lhe Soviel Iai Lasl vas lhe
slaging aiea foi suppoil lo Noilh Koiean and Chinese
Connunisl foices engaged in lhe Koiean Wai. Wilh
lhe eneigence of lhe Sino-Soviel conicl and espe3
ciaIIy aflei lhe loidei incidenls vilh China in 1969,
lhe Iai Lasl lecane a niIilaiy laslion and ienained
so unliI lhe coIIapse of lhe USSR. In lhe decade lhal
foIIoved lhe coIIapse of lhe USSR, lhe Russian Iai
Lasl expeiienced denogiaphic decIine and econonic
ciisis, fion vhich il legan a sIov iecoveiy. The ie3
gion has enduied an eneigy ciisis, ciininaIily, and
coiiuplion. Tensions lelveen Moscov and lhe Iai
Lasl giev shaip vilh lhe gIolaI econonic dovnluin
and lhe decIine in voiId eneigy piices, pailicuIaiIy
vhen Moscov soughl lo inpose a laiiff on inpoiled
aulonoliIes, vhich had leen a lhiiving lusiness in
VIadivoslok. In Decenlei 2OO8, IocaI pioleslois look
lo lhe slieels undei lhe sIogan: Aulhoiilies: Raise lhe
Slandaid of Living, nol lhe Taiiff. They veie nel
ly Minisliy of InleinaI Affaiis (MVD) iiol poIice senl
fion Moscov lo iesloie oidei ly appIying lheii la3
lons lo lhe denonslialois lodies.
44
In pail, lhese ciises veie a Iegacy of lhe coIIapse
of lhe Soviel syslen, vhich had liealed lhose iegions
as lhe foivaid laslions of ils secuiily in lhe conlexl
of deleiioialing ieIalions vilh lhe IRC. Moscov had
invesled heaviIy in nainlaining a niIilaiy piesence
and infiasliucluie in lhe iegion, incIuding lhe aikaI-
Anui Main Line (Magis|ra|), vhich vas lo piovide
478
lhe lianspoilalion infiasliucluie lo give lhe iegion
slialegic deplh foi defense lul vas nevei conpIeled.
Wilh lhe coIIapse of lhe Soviel Union, lhal niIilaiy in3
fiasliucluie vas aIIoved lo decay, since Moscov had
no iesouices lo fund il. In lhe alsence of conlinuing
inveslnenl ciedils, Moscov gianled lhe iegions IocaI
seIf-goveinnenl and Iooked lo econonic liansfoina3
lion on lhe lasis of inleinalionaI liade lo ievive lhe
aiea. Theie vas nuch hope expiessed in Moscov lhal
}apanese capilaI, Chinese voikeis, and Russian iav
naleiiaIs vouId nake lhe Russian Iai Lasl inlo a pail
of lhe dynanic Asia-Iacihc econony. Inslead, lhe Iai
Lasl sav a iadicaI decIine in popuIalion (7.9 niIIion in
1989) and econonic aclivily, Ieading lo a lolaI popuIa3
lion in lhe Iai Lasl of 6.7 niIIion ly lhe 2OO2 census
and naking lhe iegion one of lhe nosl undei-popuIal3
ed iegions in lhe voiId in leins of peisons pei squaie
niIe. In facl, hovevei, nosl of lhe popuIalion in lhe
Russian Iai Lasl is concenlialed in a 9O-niIe leIl of
sellIenenl fion Chila in lhe Wesl lo VIadivoslok on
lhe Iacihc vilh lhe Tians-Sileiian RaiIioad pioviding
lhe singIe coiiidoi foi liansiegionaI lianspoilalion
lhiough il. Russia did nove lo iesoIve loidei dispules
vilh lhe IRC undei Iiesidenl oiis YeIlsin, vhich Ied
lo a geneiaI agieenenl in 1995 lul Iefl lhe sellIenenl of
conicling cIains ovei ceilain slialegic isIands in lhe
aieas of Chila and Khalaiovsk uniesoIved. In 2OO5,
lhese issues veie iesoIved vilh lhe liansfei of aloul
haIf lhe dispuled leiiiloiy lo China. In spile of lhe
facl lhal isIands neai Khalaiovsk veie diieclIy acioss
fion lhis najoi Russian cily and defense cenlei, niIi3
.0+5 02."/+&.&#( ,/'-*605#, 0-5 8&6&.0+5 ."+#0. ./ ."#
cily, aIlhough lhe oidei Cuaids did expiess concein
aloul possilIe iIIegaI innigialion.
45
In lhe geneiaI cIi3
nale of inpioved Sino-Russian ieIalions, no niIilaiy
lhieal seened lo exisl.
479
Theie veie, of couise, aII soils of conceins aloul iI3
IegaI Chinese sellIeis coning inlo lhe Iai Lasl. Vikloi
Ishaev, lhe Coveinoi of Khalaiovsk Kiai fion 1991
lo 2OO9, iepealedIy iaised lhe issue of Chinese nigia3
lion inlo lhe iegion as pail of pIan foi lhe peacefuI
capluie of lhe Russian Iai Lasl.
46
ul unIike undei
YeIlsin, a sliongei cenliaI goveinnenl vas alIe lo
keep IocaI piolIens and peiceplions fion inpacling
lhe conducl of liIaleiaI ieIalions. Likevise, peilaining
lo nucIeai issues, if lhe gieal concein had leen iegion3
aIisn and lhe aclions of IocaI ofhciaIs in iegaid lo sup3
poiling and piolecling exisling nucIeai infiasliucluie
1+/8 ,#7059 7+&8&-06 *#-#.+0.&/-9 0-, &-7/8*#.#-.
nanagenenl in lhe 199Os, vhen lhe cenlei vas veak
undei Iulin, lhe cenlei ieeslalIished conlioI and co-
opled IocaI poIilicaI Ieadeis lo lhe cenleis inleiesls,
ieducing lhe iisks of ciisis lelveen lhe cenlei and lhe
Iai Laslein peiipheiy.
47
Iulins slialegy, vhich has
conlinued undei Iiesidenl Medvedev, vas lo seek lo
liing aloul lhe econonic inlegialion of Russia inlo
lhe gIolaI econonic piocesses lhal have luined Asia
inlo an engine of gIolaIizalion. Russia has foinaIIy
engaged vilh iegionaI oiganizalions such as lhe Asia-
Iacihc Lcononic CounciI (AILC), vhich il joined in
1998, and fosleied a pailneiship vilh lhe Associalion
of Soulheaslein Asian Nalions (ASLAN). Hovevei,
Russia has nol achieved ils goaIs as of 2O1O.
In lhe Iai Lasl, Russias piinaiy ganlIe vas on lhe
piospecl of good ieIalions vilh China. UnliI lo 2OO9,
China vas consislenlIy desciiled as Russias slialegic
pailnei, lhe piinaiy engine of Asias econonic lians3
foinalion and gioving gIolaI inuence. Russia vas
lo seive as a souice of advanced niIilaiy lechnoIogy
and iav naleiiaIs and lo piovide China vilh a slalIe
ieai suppoiling ils inleinalionaI posilion.
48
No nen3
48O
lion of China as a slialegic lhieal cane fion ofhciaI
souices, aIlhough connenlalois nighl voiiy aloul a
yeIIov peiiI of Chinese sellIeis in lhe Iai Lasl oi con3
pIain of Chinese goods diiving oul doneslic pioducls
in IocaI naikels. Konslanlin IuIikovsky, a foinei
geneiaI and Iiesidenl Iulins envoy lo lhe Iai Laslein
IedeiaI Okiug fion 2OOO lo 2OO9, spoke of Chinese
inveslnenl as vilaI lo lhe fuluie of lhe iegion.
49
Rus3
sias iesiduaI inuence in Noilh Koiea had decIined
iapidIy aflei lhe coIIapse of lhe Soviel Union as lhe
issue of Noilh Koiean nucIeai veapons deveIopnenl
eneiged. In 2OOO, Iiesidenl Iulin inviled Kin }ong II
lo visil Russia, vhich he did in lhe sunnei of 2OOO.
IuIikovsky, vho acconpanied Kin in his iaiI liip lo
Moscov, lecane lhe Russian ofhciaI vilh lhe cIosesl
lies lo Kin }ong II and appiecialed lhe inpoilance of
Noilh Koiea lo Russias ovn secuiily inleiesls and ap3
piecialed Chinas sliongesl inuence in Iyongyang.
50

Aflei Kin }ong IIs visil lo Russia in 2OOO, sone spoke
of lhe peisonaI lies lelveen Kin and Iiesidenl Iulin
as iedehning Russian-Noilh Koiean ieIalions, lul de3
veIopnenls ovei lhe iesl of lhe decade conhined Chi3
nas giealei access and inuence duiing lhe Six Iaily
TaIks ovei Noilh Koieas nucIeai piogian. Russias
appioach lo lhal ongoing ciisis has leen lo suppoil
ils Iegilinale secuiily inleiesls in Noilheasl Asia via
pieseiving peace and slaliIily on lhe Koiean Ienin3
suIa.
51
In lhis capacily, Russia has engaged in lhe Six
Iaily TaIks. Russia couId and did deveIop econonic
lies vilh Soulh Koiea ovei lhe Iasl 2 decades, vhiIe
il kepl ils Iiniled inuence in Noilh Koiea. This laI3
ancing has leen evidenl in Moscovs appioach lo lhe
ciisis sel off ly lhe sinking of lhe Soulh Koiean palioI
7/+%#..#9 ."# Cnccnan, ly an acouslic loipedo, vhich
an inleinalionaI invesligalion caiiied oul ly U.S. and
481
AusliaIian expeils concIuded vas hied ly Noilh Ko3
iean foices.
52
Whal Moscov vanls nosl lo avoid is a
iegionaI ciisis leconing an ained conicl and invil3
ing lhe inleivenlion of olhei poveis, especiaIIy lhe
Uniled Slales and lhe IRC in suppoil of Soulh and
Noilh Koiea.
Ovei lhe Iasl 2 decades, Russia has Iooked lo }apa3
nese inveslnenl even in lhe face of lhe Iack of piog3
iess in iesoIving lhe leiiiloiiaI dispule ovei lhe Ku3
iiIe IsIands, vhich had kepl }apanese-Soviel and nov
}apanese-Russian ieIalions fiozen~lhe Soviel Union
and lhen Russia offeied a lvo of foui spIil of lhe is3
Iand chain, vilh Russia ielaining lhe noilhein and
}apan gelling lhe soulhein isIands. }apan denanded
lhe ieluin of aII foui isIands, vhich Russia iefused.
Russian eneigy dipIonacy undei Iulin favoied Chi3
nese inleiesls ovei }apanese. ReaIisls in Moscov sav
no najoi novenenl in Tokyos secuiily iegine vilh
Washinglon and sinpIy gave a Iovei piioiily lo lhe
inpiovenenl of liIaleiaI poIilicaI ieIalions even
lhough Moscov conlinued lo couil }apanese invesl3
nenl in lhe Russian Iai Lasl. oidei incidenls and
dispules ovei hshing iighls Ied lo peiiodic aie-ups
lul no najoi ciisis, so Moscov vas viIIing lo keep ils
poIicy lovaids }apan in Iine vilh lhal of eijing. Mos3
cov suppoiled lhe Six Iaily TaIks lul vilh lhe cIeai
undeislanding lhal eijing had lhe lesl Ieveiage vilh
Iyongyang. Moscov suppoiled counleipioIifeialion
inilialives, lul has voiiied lhal U.S. inpalience and/
oi Noilh Koiea piovocalions couId Iead lo vai and
giealei inslaliIily in noilheasl Asia and even iisk a
Sino-Aneiican confionlalion. The Russian concein
aloul Sino-Aneiican conicl giovs in conjunclion
vilh lhe lvo najoi poinls of conlenlions lelveen lhe
lvo poveis: Taivan and lhe Koiean peninsuIa. The
482
conceins have lecone giealei as lhe conducl of lhe
Noilh Koiean iegine has lecone noie eiialic.
Slialegic nucIeai veapons Iooned veiy Iaige in
lhe YeIlsin eia vhen lhe slialegic aisenaI vas expecl3
ed lo pIay a najoi poIilicaI ioIe in assuiing lhal Russia
vouId eslalIish and ielaining a slialegic pailneiship
vilh lhe Uniled Slales and ollain a najoi say in lhe
eneiging posl-CoId Wai oidei in Luiope. Since 1999,
Russia has enphasized lhe deleiienl funclion of ils
slialegic nucIeai foices, lul has focused ils posluie on
conicl nanagenenl lo discouiage niIilaiy inleiven3
lion in Russias peiipheiy. Ioi lvo decades, lhe Rus3
sian niIilaiy has pIaced lhe IikeIihood of nucIeai vai
al a veiy Iov IeveI and has even seen lhe possiliIily of
a geneiaI coaIilion vai al a Iov piolaliIily. Thal le3
ing said, lhe Russian goveinnenl has aIso iecognized
lhal ils innediale peiipheiy is quile unslalIe, fiaughl
vilh IocaI conicls lhal can luin inlo IocaI vais, and
Iead lo foieign niIilaiy inleivenlions againsl lhe na3
lionaI inleiesls, leiiiloiiaI inlegiily, and soveieignly
of Russia. The queslion of lhe neai alioad, a eu3
phenisn foi lhe independenl slales lhal eneiged on
Russias peiipheiy vilh lhe lieakup of lhe USSR, has
leen cIoseIy lied lo Russian nalionaI inleiesls, a Rus3
sian spheie of inuence, and lhe pioleclion of Russian
ninoiilies Iiving in lhe successoi slales. Russian in3
leivenlion in elhnic conicls in lhis iegion has leen
seen ly lhe Wesl as one of lhe piinaiy aieas of conicl
vilh Russia, especiaIIy in lhe afleinalh of lhe Russo-
Ceoigian Wai of Augusl 2OO8.
53
Ioi Russian Ieadeis,
lhe Russo-Ceoigian conicl ieveaIed a nunlei of
piolIens associaled vilh lhe connand and conlioI
of nodein convenlionaI foices, especiaIIy lhe inlegia3
lion of aii-Iand conlal, vhich lecane a diivei foi lhe
Minisliy of Defenses nev Iook.
54
>. ."# (08# .&8#9
483
hovevei, Chinese niIilaiy nodeinizalion nade lhe
ganlIe on slialegic pailneiship Iess inviling if China
vas inlenl upon deveIoping Iaige-scaIe lhealei vai3
faie capaliIilies lhal enliace advanced convenlionaI
veapons and nelvoik-cenliic opeialions. The defauIl
niIilaiy ganlIe on nonslialegic nucIeai foices lo de3
lei a ienole Chinese lhieal lecane Iess appeaIing.
Thus, in }une and }uIy, lhe Russian MiIilaiy Defense
and CeneiaI Slaff conducled Voslok-2O1O vilh lhe
inlenl of assessing Russias capacily lo noliIize and
depIoy ils nev Iook convenlionaI foices lo defeal
a niIilaiy inleivenlion againsl lhe Russian Iai Lasl,
and lesled lolh lhe conlal capaliIilies and conlal
ieadiness of lhese foices lo deaI vilh lhal lhieal.
55
!"#
oulcone of lhal exeicise vas a najoi lesl foi lhe nev
Iook and legan lhe piocess of iedehning lhe ioIe of
lhealei nucIeai foices in lhe Iai Lasl fion lhe peispec3
.&%# /1 ."# -#7#((&.5 ./'0+, 0 .+2# (#7/-, /+,#+ +#3
sponse, giving Moscov lhe capacily lo nanage such
a conicl lovaid a poIilicaI soIulion lhal does nol pul
inlo iisk lhe leiiiloiiaI inlegiily of Russia oi ils sui3
vivaI as a soveieign slale. Conlinued piogiess in lhis
diieclion depends upon Russias capacily lo ieain ils
foices vilh advanced convenlionaI capaliIilies, vhich
viII depend on lhe adaplaliIily of ils niIilaiy indus3
.+&06 7/8*6#)9 0-, /- &.( 70*07&.5 ./ #(70*# &.( +#60.&%#
geoslialegic isoIalion in lhe Iai Lasl if ieIalions vilh
China shouId deleiioiale.
Voslok-2O1O undeiscoied lhe exisling geoslialegic
isoIalion of Russia in lhal iegion, even as lhe Minisliy
of Defense and lhe CeneiaI Slaff evaIualed Russias
nev Iook niIilaiy. One conspicuous fealuie of lhe
exeicise vas lhe desciiplion of opposing foices as
lhose of a hypolhelicaI eneny. Rogei McDeinoll,
a pioninenl Weslein connenlaloi on lhe nev Iook
484
iefoins of lhe Russian niIilaiy, offeied an exceIIenl
oveiviev of Voslok-2O1O as an opeialionaI-slialegic
exeicise. McDeinoll coiieclIy poinled lo lhe ioIe of
lhe exeicise in lesling concepls associaled vilh lhe
nev Iook iefoins of lhe Russian Ained Ioices and
caIIed allenlion lo lhe lesling of lhe speed of depIoy3
nenl of liigades, lheii conlal ieadiness, and lheii
capacily lo engage in conlined ains conlal in an
aii-Iand lallIe, and lheii IogislicaI suppoil lo suslain
conlal aclions. He aIso noled lhal vhiIe lhe scenaiio
deaIl vilh a vide iange of conlal aclions, incIuding
0-.&3*&+0759 ./ 7/2-.#+.#++/+&(89 ."# (#-&/+ 8&6&.0+5
Ieadeiship, incIuding Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff Cen3
eiaI NikoIai Makaiov, slaled lhal lhe opponenl vas
hypolhelicaI and vas nol inlended lo sinuIale any
one counliy oi lIoc. McDeinoll, hovevei, concIud3
ed lhal lhe acluaI oljeclive of lhe exeicise vas a lesl of
lhe defenses of Sileiia and lhe Iai Lasl fion allack ly
lhe ILA of China. McDeinoll iaised lhe veiy lhieal
aloul vhich lhe Russian poIilicaI and niIilaiy eIile
couId nol speak openIy.
56
!/ 2-,#+(.0-, ."&( (&6#-7#9
/-# -##,( ./ 2-,#+(.0-, ."# */6&.&70638&6&.0+5 7/-.#).
of lhis exeicise.
Anyone vho has leen invoIved in lhe consliuclion
of a scenaiio foi a vaigane oi exeicise knovs lhal lhe
7+#0.&/- /1 ."# ,/728#-.( 1/+ ."# 7/-,27. /1 (27" 0-
opeialionaI-slialegic exeicise invoIves lhe ciealion of
a ioad lo vai, vhich liings aloul conicl lelveen lhe
conlending sides, usuaIIy IaleIed ied and lIue
in lhe case of Russian vai ganes~vilh lIue leing
lhe coIoi associaled vilh lhe aggiessoi foices againsl
vhich Russian ied foices defend. In lhe case of lhe
Voslok-2O1O, lhe Russian foices invoIved in lhe ex3
eicise veie facing a hypolhelicaI opponenl (us|ctnqi
prc|itni|). Al a piess confeience al lhe slail of lhe exei3
485
cise, CeneiaI Makaiov slaled lhal: Iiisl I vouId nole
lhal lhis pailicuIai exeicise, Iike Iasl yeais, is nol di3
iecled againsl any conciele nalion oi niIilaiy-poIilicaI
lIoc. Il has a sliiclIy defense oiienlalion lo nainlain
secuiily and defense of lhe slales nalionaI inleiesls
aIong ils Iai Laslein loideis fion a hypolhelicaI en3
eny.
57

Lven a hypolhelicaI opponenl has lo have sone
niIilaiy capaliIilies in oidei lo execule acls of aggies3
sion, vhich liing aloul lhe iesponses of lhe ied
defendeis in lhe Russian case.
58
>- /*#+0.&/-063(.+03
legic exeicise is conposed of nany dislincl laclicaI
vignelles, vhich aie used lo lesl lhe liaining of lhe
foices invoIved in lhe exeicise. Voslok- 2O1O nol onIy
invoIved aii, giound, and navaI foices of lhe Rus3
sian Minisliy of Defense lul aIso incIuded foices of
lhe InleinaI Tioops of lhe MVD, IS, oidei Cuaids,
Minisliy of Lxliaoidinaiy Silualions, IedeiaI Secuiily
Seivice (ISO), and IedeiaI Seivice foi Lxeculion of
Iunishnenls (ISIN).
59
Ils scaIe vas quile Iaige in leins
of lioops, equipnenl, and lhe nunlei of liaining aieas
in Sileiia and lhe Iai Lasl lhal veie invoIved. When
asked aloul lhe opponenl lhal diove lhese vignelles,
CeneiaI Makaiov iepIied:
We did nol Iook al any pailicuIai counliy and did nol
Iook al any pailicuIai eneny. We aie laIking aloul
'"0. ,&+#7.&/- '# '&66 7+#0.# /2+ /'- /*#+0.&/-063
slialegic silualion in lhe couise of vhich sonevheie
a gioup of leiioiisls oi Iaige gioup of sepaialisls aie
07.&%#9 '"&7" &( =2&.# 7"0+07.#+&(.&7 1/+ 6/'3&-.#-(&.5
conicls. Ioi inslance ve seIecled such scenaiios. ul
ly quanlily~heie a liigade, lheie a lallaIion, heie a
snaII gioups of vaiships. I viII say once again, ve
did nol allenpl lo assenlIe huge foices and neans in
any disliicl. We vanl lo Iook al lhe capacily of execul3
486
ing lasks vilh snaII sulunils. We have lo undeisland
"/' /2+ .+//*( 82(. 07.9 0-, 8/(. &8*/+.0-. '"0.
ainanenls lhey viII need.
60
Accoiding lo Minislei of Defense Dnilii Seidyu3
kov, Voslok-2O1O vas designed pailicuIaiIy lo lesl lhe
,#*6/58#-. /1 1/+7#( 0-, ."# /*#+0.&/-06 7/880-,
and conlioI of lhe nev liigade-lased foice sliucluie.
Voslok-2O1O did nol pil lvo opposing ainies in Iin3
eai conlal. Inslead, il invoIved isoIaled conlal and
nonconlal episodes lesling vaiious foices. Iighlei
avialion conducled Iong-iange depIoynenls fion Lu3
iopean Russia lo lhe Iai Lasl, enpIoying in-aii iefueI3
ing fion lankei aiiciafl. Aii defense foices Iaunched
suiface lo aii (SAM) nissiIe sliikes againsl eneny
lonleis seeking lo allack Khalaiovsk. SpeciaI foic3
es coopeialed vilh lhe canp guaids lo pievenl lhe
ieIease of a speciaI piisonei fion a Ialoi canp neai
Chila. Conlined navaI foices, incIuding ships fion
lhe Iacihc, Noilhein, and Iack Sea IIeels, engaged
eneny suiface and sulsuiface foices al sea and con3
ducled aii assauIl and anphilious Iandings. Olhei
lioops leal lack an eneny Ianding on one of lhe KuiiI
IsIands. Moloiized iie and lank liigades in lhe Sile3
iian MiIilaiy Disliicl engaged sepaialisls seeking lo
cul off lhe Russian Iai Lasl and lhey defealed lhe en3
eny ly conlined ains naneuvei lhiough lhe deplhs
of lhe eneny, cuIninaling in foicing lhe Onon Rivei
and inposing upon lhe eneny ielieal and lhe assunp3
lion of a laclicaI defense. In Iiinoiye (lhe Maiiline
Iiovince), Russian foices sinuIaled lhe ighl of iefu3
gees fion Noilh Koiea. Al lhe sane line, Iiesidenl
Medvedev used his visil lo lhe Iai Lasl in conjunclion
vilh lhe exeicise lo piaise lhe evidenl piogiess nade
in lhe nev Iook and lo undeiscoie lhe goveinnenls
487
connilnenl lo nake Russia inlo an inlegialed pail of
lhe Asia-Iacihc voiId. Olseiving lhe navaI exeicise,
Medvedev look line lo decoiale saiIois fion lhe Mar-
sna| Snapcsnni|ct, vho had laken pail in lhe iecapluie
of lhe lankei Mcsccu Unitcrsi|q and lhe Iileialion of
ils ciev.
Russian connenlalois have concIuded lhal, in
spile of aII lhe exlensive piess coveiage of lhe exei3
cise, lhe goveinnenl faiIed lo ailicuIale one nessage
and slay on poinl. The niIilaiy, incIuding lhe Minislei
of Defense and lhe Chief of lhe CeneiaI Slaff veie sel
upon enphasizing lhe piogiess nade in ciealing lhe
nev Iook Ained Ioices and lo disain ciilics vho
have chaiged lhal lhe Seidyukov iefoins had lioken
lhe niIilaiy.
61
B- ."# /."#+ "0-,9 ."# */6&.&706 6#0,#+3
ship in lhe peison of Iiesidenl Medvedev had as ils
piinaiy nessage Russias econonic diive foi iegionaI
inlegialion as a vilaI nalionaI oljeclive. Medvedev
enphasized lhe Asia-Iacihc iegions conlinued eco3
nonic giovlh even duiing lhe cuiienl gIolaI econon3
ic ciisis, and spoke of Russias inlegialion vilh lhe
enliie Asia-Iacihc iegion and nol jusl lhe IRC, and
he even Iisled inlegialion of lhe iaziI-Russia-India-
China (RIC) lIoc as a nalionaI oljeclive.
62

AIeksandi Sadchikov desciiled Medvedevs
poIicy as lhe fouilh canpaign lo lhe Lasl, iecaIIing
lhiee eaiIiei canpaigns: Russias iivaIiy vilh LngIand
and Iiance foi posilion in lhe Iai Lasl in lhe niddIe of
lhe 19lh cenluiy, lhe Russo-}apanese Wai of 19O4-O5,
and, lhe sociaIisl expansion undei lhe Soviel Union,
vhich cuIninaled in lhe leiiiloiiaI gains achieved as
a iesuIl of lhe Augusl 1945 vai againsl }apan. Sad3
chikov nade iefeience lo lhe poIilicaI foiecasl nade
ly VyachesIav Nikonov aloul lhe advanlages lo Rus3
sia in Ieaning lo lhe easl lo escape lhe piessuie of lhe
488
Aneiican supeipovei. In 2OO2, Nikonov had viillen
of a China aIieady liansfoining ilseIf econonicaIIy
and slialegicaIIy focusing on lhe unihcalion of Tai3
van vilh lhe IRC as ils piinaiy slialegic oljeclive.
Nikonov piojecled a ieIaliveIy sIov liansfoinalion of
lhe Chinese niIilaiy ovei lhe nexl 25 yeais, naking
lhe Lasl in lhe foin of lhe IRC ieIaliveIy Iov iisk in
leins of secuiily. Sadchikov chaiacleiizes lhe fouilh
canpaign lo lhe Lasl as an adaplalion of eijings
slialegy lo Russian ciicunslances: In ils line, China
foinuIaled ils ovn slialegy: Iean on lhe noilh, slali3
Iize lhe vesl, and expand lo lhe soulh and easl. Ac3
coiding lo Nikonov, Moscovs piesenl slialegy nusl
le Iean on lhe vesl, slaliIize lhe soulh, and go easl.
63

Wilh lhe niIilaiy addiessing a sepaialisl lhieal lhal
ollains ained assislance fion alioad and lhe poIili3
caI Ieadeiship connilled lo going Lasl, one nusl sliII
ask vhal veie lhe undeiIying lhieals diiving lhe Cen3
eiaI Slaffs accunuIalion of vignelles.
Looking al lhe vaiious episodes lhal nade up lhe
scenaiio foi Voslok-2O1O, one couId concIude lhal go3
ing easl has ils ovn pecuIiai iisks foi Russia. The iefu3
gee scenaiio foi Noilh Koiea highIighls lhe inslaliIily
of lhal iegine and lhe IikeIihood of conicl deveIop3
ing oul of ils disinlegialion oi fion ils despeiale acls
lo suslain ils posilion. Ieai lhal a U.S.-Chinese con3
icl in lhe vake of lhe coIIapse of Noilh Koiea vouId
inpose difhcuIl slialegic choices upon Moscov has
leen a ieguIai lhene foi piess connenlaiy concein3
ing Koiea. The shaip exchange lelveen Moscov and
Tokyo ovei lhe exeicise in lhe dispuled KuiiI IsIands
highIighls lhe lioulIed slale of Russo-}apanese ieIa3
lions and liings inlo lhe slialegic caIcuIalion lhe U.S.-
}apanese Tiealy of MuluaI Coopeialion and Secuiily.
64

}usl as Iiesidenl Medvedev vas visiling lhe nucIeai
489
7+2&(#+ Pc|r Vc|i|ii lo olseive a nock navaI lallIe and
anphilious Ianding, navaI ofhceis lheie infoined lhe
nedia lhal lhe laclicaI piolIen of lhe exeicise vas lhe
desliuclion of an Aneiican squadion and lhal lhe
piolalIe eneny vas unchanged. Connenling on lhe
neleoioIogicaI condilions al lhe line of lhis navaI ex3
eicise, vhich invoIved heavy nisl and Iov visiliIily,
lhe aulhoi desciiled Voslok-2O1O as coveied in fog,
a calegoiizalion vhich vouId hl lhe confused niIilaiy
and poIilicaI signaIs leing senl.
65
A&-06659 ."# 0&+ 0-,
giound exeicises neai Chila and Khalaiovsk nake
-/ (#-(# #)7#*. 0( +#(*/-(#( ./ (/8# 1/+7# ."+#0.#-3
ing lhe leiiiloiiaI inlegiily of Laslein Sileiia and lhe
Iai Lasl. The onIy foices vilh lhe niIilaiy polenliaI lo
caiiyoul aii and giound allacks lhal deep inlo Rus3
sian leiiiloiy aie lhe ILA in suppoil of lhe so-caIIed
sepaialisls idenlihed in lhe scenaiio. Reecling on
lhe vignelles lhal nade up Voslok-2O1O, AIeskandi
Khianchikhin concIuded lhal lhe hypolhelicaI oppo3
nenl in lhese giound and aii opeialions vas, indeed,
Russias piolalIe opponenl, lhe ILA. And he slaled
in his assessnenl of lhe exeicise lhal: The piolalIe
opponenl viII defeal us in a seiious conicl.
66

The one lianch of lhe Russian niIilaiy nol invoIved
in diiecl conlal opeialions duiing Voslok-2O1O vas
lhe Slialegic Rockel Ioices, vhich caiiied oul no op3
eialionaI Iaunches. Theii onIy ioIe vas lhe defense of
lheii lases fion allacks ly leiioiisls. Hovevei, ac3
coiding lo piess iepoils, lhe exeicise did end vilh a
laclicaI nucIeai sliike. As Khianchikhin noled, such
a sliike vas haidIy in keeping vilh a hghl againsl
sepaialisls and landils.
67
This seens lo suggesl lhal
convenlionaI foices couId nol handIe such a chaIIenge
lo lhe leiiiloiiaI inlegiily of lhe Russian slale in so
vuIneialIe a iegion as lhe Iai Lasl. Hovevei, lhe sce3
49O
-0+&/ "0, 6#1. /*#- ."# &-.#+%#-.&/- /1 0 */'#+126 "53
*/."#.&706 /**/-#-. &- (2**/+. /1 ."# (#*0+0.&(.( 01.#+
lheii defeal on lhe Onon.
6;5673!-;5
Shoil of a dipIonalic ievoIulion lo end Russias
inleinalionaI isoIalion in lhe Iai Lasl, ve can expecl
lhe conlinualion of a }anus-Iike poIicy of Iooking lo
econonic inlegialion vilh lhe iesl of lhe Asia-Iacihc
voiId, vhiIe exeicising againsl lhese unnaned hypo3
lhelicaI opponenls. Russias Voslok-2O1O exeicise did
nol dehne lhe ioIe of lhealei nucIeai foices in lhe Iai
Lasl~vhelhei lhey viII le lhe iesponse of necessily
oi lecone a liue second oidei iesponse~giving Mos3
cov lhe capacily lo nanage such a conicl lovaid a
poIilicaI soIulion lhal does nol pul inlo iisk lhe leiiilo3
iiaI inlegiily of Russia oi ils suivivaI as soveieign slale.
Much viII depend upon Russias capacily lo ieain ils
foices vilh advanced convenlionaI capaliIilies, vhich
viII depend on lhe adaplaliIily of ils niIilaiy indus3
.+&06 7/8*6#) 0-, /- &.( 70*07&.5 ./ #(70*# &.( +#60.&%#
geoslialegic isoIalion in lhe Iai Lasl if ieIalions vilh
China shouId deleiioiale.
In iecenl ailicIes, AIeksandi Khianchikhin iaised
lvo issues lhal nake lhis piolIen pailicuIaiIy difhcuIl.
Iiisl, he did a slialegic assessnenl of lhe lhieals faced
ly Russia on aII slialegic axes and lhen exanined lhe
niIilaiy capaliIilies avaiIalIe lo deaI vilh lhen. He
noled convenlionaI niIilaiy dehciencies in lhe vesl,
lhe soulh, and noilh, lul said lhal Russias defenses
in lhe easl veie cIeaiIy lhe veakesl of aII. In lhis, he
incIuded lhe defenses coveiing SakhaIin and lhe Ku3
iiI IsIands, lul focused on lhe Sino-Russian loidei in
Sileiian and lhe Iai Lasl. Theie he desciiled Russia
491
as effecliveIy defenseIess againsl Chinese aggiession.
Againsl a nassive aiiay of ILA convenlionaI, giound,
and aii foices, lhe Sileiian and Iai Laslein niIilaiy
disliicls conlain onIy one lank, eighl noloiized iie,
lvo aii assauIl, lhiee nissiIe, foui ailiIIeiy, lvo iockel-
ailiIIeiy, one coveiing, and foui aii defense liigades,
and aloul 3OO conlal aiiciafl vilh lheii lases Iocaled
cIose lo lhe loidei. China has nuch giealei capacily
lo ieinfoice ils unils in lhe lhealei ly iaiI novenenl,
vhiIe Russia nusl face lhe facl lhal lhe lians-Sileiian
iaiIioad is vuIneialIe lo aii inleidiclion in Sileiia and
diiecl allack in lhe Iai Lasl.
68
!"# (#7/-, */&-. 7/-3
ceined lhe conducl of Russian poIicy in lhe conlexl of
niIilaiy veakness, vheie Russia inviles confionla3
lions vilh lhe Uniled Slales even as il faces lhieals on
olhei axes, on vhich ils veiy veakness piovokes lhe
eneigence of nev lhieals.
69

The nev lenoi of ieIalions lelveen Moscov and
eijing vas evidenl al lhe iecenl SCO sunnil in Tash3
kenl, vheie Moscov and eijing discieleIy jockeyed
foi posilion. Moscov has pul giealei enphasis on se3
cuiily in CenliaI Asia and has ievived niIilaiy coop3
eialion vilh Kazakhslan, Kyigyzslan, Tajikislan, and
Uzlekislan lheie undei lhe CoIIeclive Secuiily Tiealy
Oiganizalion (CSTO), jusl as joinl niIilaiy exeicises
undei lhe SCO have decIined since 2OO7. China has
enphasized econonic penelialion via inveslnenl
and foIIovs a coheienl Iong-iange poIicy of iegionaI
inlegialion vilh Chinas econony. }anes Nixey of
Chalhan House connenled on lhe iecenl sunnil
lhal Russia nov iecognizes China as a najoi secuiily
concein lul is unviIIing lo say so openIy.
70
Moieovei,
lhe lhieal is nol jusl lo CenliaI Asia. Tensions lelveen
Russia and China have nounled ovei lhe Russian Iai
Lasl. Iiess iepoils, ciling souices in lhe Russian oi3
492
dei Cuaids, speak of Chinese effoils lo diedge lhe
Ussuii neai Khalaiovsk and change lhe navigalionaI
ov lo Chinas advanlage in oidei lo gel addilionaI
leiiiloiy ceded lo China.
71
Such incidenls aie nol lhe ieaI chaIIenge lo Rus3
sian soveieignly ovei ils Iai Laslein leiiiloiies. The
ieaI chaIIenge is lo le found in lhe veiy conliadic3
loiy cIains aloul lhe Iai Lasl coning oul of Moscov,
vheie sone see lhe iegion as lhe econonic engine and
souice of iav naleiiaIs lo puII Russia inlo lhe 21sl
cenluiy, vhiIe olheis see lhe iegion as aIieady leing
Iosl and as a de faclo pail of lhe Chinese econony.
Di. Vikloi Laiin, Diiecloi of lhe Inslilule of Hisloiy,
AicheoIogy, and Llhnogiaphy of lhe IeopIes of lhe
Iai Lasl, look lhese conicling opinions as lhe poinl of
depailuie foi a najoi anaIylicaI iepoil on The Asia-
Iacihc Region in lhe LaiIy 21sl Cenluiy: ChaIIenges,
Thieals, and Chances of Iacihc-Ocean Russia. CoI3
Ieagues sav lhis piece as an inleIIecluaI piovocalion
and an invilalion foi ieeclion on lhe cuiienl silualion.
Laiin is skeplicaI aloul lhe goveinnenls decIaialions
aloul inveslnenl in lhe iegion and queslions ils viII3
ingness lo suslain such inveslnenls in lhe iegions
oiI, gas, and lianspoilalion infiasliucluie. He noles
lhal lheie is nolhing inevilalIe aloul a Russian pies3
ence in lhe Iai Lasl. Olhei Luiopean coIoniaI poveis
have faiIed lo keep lheii Asian enpiies. Why shouId
Russia le any diffeienl` Ovei lhe Iasl 2 decades, gov3
einnenl piogians and foieign inveslnenls have nol
6#, ./ &8*+/%#8#-.( &- ."# 6&%#( /1 ."# 6/706 */*2603
lion~Laiin ciles oiI and gas deveIopnenl in SakhaIin
as an exanpIe. Russia is sliII ieaIIy on lhe naigins of
lhe eneiging Asia-Iacihc econony. The cenlei laIks
aloul inveslnenl in lhe Iai Lasl lecause il feais lhal
il viII Iose lhe iegion. Moscov is nolivaled ly exlei3
493
naI lhieals, lul lhe ieaI piolIen is lhal lhe ienain3
ing popuIalion in lhe iegion has no slake in ils fuluie
vilh Russia. Looking lack 15 yeais, Russians spoke of
a yeIIov peiiI fion Chinese innigialion, lul lhal
is nol lhe case loday. The ieaI Chinese piesence lo3
day is in peivasive econonic penelialion inlo Russias
Iai Laslein and Sileiian naikels foi consunei goods
and food sluffs. Russia nissed lhe liain foi Luiopean
econonic inlegialion and is IikeIy lo niss lhe Asian
liain as veII. If Moscov does nol slop lhinking of lhe
Iai Lasl as a coIony lo le niIked and slail lhinking
aloul il as a fuIIy-inlegialed pail of lhe Russian and
Asian-Iacihc econonies, il viII, al sone line in lhe
-/.3.//3,&(.0-. 12.2+#9 107# ."# +#06 ."+#0. /1 (#*0+0.3
isn. The Soviel ansvei of liealing lhe Iai Lasl as a
niIilaiy laslion has no piospecl of success.
72
!"#(# ,#%#6/*8#-.( 805 12-,08#-.0665 ("&1. ."#
geoslialegic conlexl of Iiesidenl Olanas gIolaI zeio
inilialive on nucIeai veapons. Ioi lhe Iasl 2 decades,
Russias nucIeai aisenaI in Asia vas hisl seen inlei3
nalionaIIy as a piolIen of nanagenenl and conlioI
as il decIined in size and opeialionaI ieadiness. Op3
#+0.&/-06659 #%#- &- &.( +#,27#, 70*07&.59 &. '0( 1/+
Russia lhe onIy niIilaiy oplion open in case of allack
in a iegion effecliveIy denuded of convenlionaI niIi3
laiy povei. Chinas ieIalive niIilaiy infeiioiily nade
lhal piospecl ienole. olh Moscov and eijing couId
Iook lo slialegic pailneiship vilhoul lhe piospecl of
an eneiging niIilaiy lhieal. Chinese niIilaiy nod3
einizalion has in lhe Iasl yeai changed lhal peiceplion
in Moscov. Nov, vilh lhe eneigence of a polenliaI
convenlionaI lhieal fion ils foinei slialegic pailnei,
Russia is in lhe piocess of evaIualing vhelhei ils ie3
foined convenlionaI foices nighl achieve s vialIe de3
leiience in case of allack fion a nodeinized Chinese
494
niIilaiy. In lhe alsence of such a capaliIily, Russia
viII le foiced lo ganlIe even noie on lhealei nucIeai
foices and le even Iess viIIing lo considei ieduclions
in ils nonslialegic nucIeai foices. In lhe conlexl of an
incieasing niIilaiy confionlalion on lhe Koiean pen3
insuIa and peiiodic lensions lelveen Washinglon
and eijing ovei Taivan, Russias incieased feai of
Chinas gioving povei and ils niIilaiy iesponse adds
one fuilhei conpIicalion lo Luiasian secuiily foi aII
pailies and nakes Asian nucIeai foice ieduclions an
even noie conpIex piolIen foi Washinglon lo nan3
age. Recenl Russian slalenenls on gIolaI zeio have
nade il cIeai lhal Moscov expecls lhe piocess lo le
Iong, oul lo 2O45 and lo invoIve nuIliIaleiaI discus3
sions aloul nonslialegic nucIeai veapons anong aII
nucIeai poveis as pail of a naliix of gIolaI secuiily.
73

Theie is nov noie evidence of a delale vilhin
lhe Russian nalionaI secuiily eIile on Chinas ioIe in
Russian nalionaI secuiily. RecenlIy, Seigei Kazen3
nov, geopoIilics expeil vilh lhe Russian Acadeny
of Sciences, and VIadinii Kunachev, vilh lhe Rus3
sian Coveinnenls Inslilule of NalionaI Secuiily and
Slialegic Reseaich, look issue vilh Khianchikhins
pessinislic ieading of Russias niIilaiy capacily lo ie3
sisl China. They did nol disagiee vilh his anaIysis of
Chinese niIilaiy piogiess oi his assessnenl of lhe laI3
ance of convenlionaI foices, lul said lhal Russia had
sufhcienl nucIeai-ained nissiIe foices lo engage in
lolh counleifoice and counleivaIue laigeling againsl
China.
74
In facl, lhey accused Khianchikhin of hyping
a hypolhelicaI conicl lelveen Russia and lhe IRC,
vhen such a conicl vas nol even a ienole possiliI3
ily. The aulhois did diag oul lhe veII-voin lhieal of
a Sino-U.S. conspiiacy lo divide Russia in sonelhing
Iike lhe MoIolov-Rillenliop Iacl of 1939. They ac3
495
cused Khianchikhin of pIaying vilh soIdieis vhen
lhe ieaI pieces veie in cIeai viev in seciel IillIe lox3
es, a lhinIy veiIed iefeience lo nucIeai veapons as
lhe veapon of innediale iesoil in lhe alsence of con3
venlionaI defense capaliIilies. Rehashing nassive ie3
laIialion foi lhe 21sl cenluiy, lhe aulhois found lheii
vay oul ly poinling lo Russia as a key suppIiei of ciil3
&706 +0' 80.#+&06( ./ ."# '/+6, 0-, ."#+#1/+# 0- #7/3
nonic guaianlee lhal no one vouId vanl lo disiupl a
good lhing. Khianchikhin did nol depicl China as an
aggiessoi. Whal he poinled lo vas Russias ieIalive
geopoIilicaI isoIalion in a iegion, vheie he sees iising
lensions. Kazennov and Kunachevs hnaI voids veie
lhal a naslei pallein nakei couId covei any lhiead-
laie pails of lhe geopoIilicaI faliic vilh naleiiaI (in
lhis case nucIeai veapons and eneigy expoils) fion
anolhei aiea lo secuie Russias nalionaI secuiily veII
inlo lhe fuluie.
!"#(# ,#%#6/*8#-.( 805 12-,08#-.0665 ("&1. ."#
geoslialegic conlexl of Iiesidenl Olanas gIolaI zeio
inilialive on nucIeai veapons. Ioi lhe Iasl 2 decades,
Russias nucIeai aisenaI in Asia vas hisl seen inlei3
nalionaIIy as a piolIen of nanagenenl and conlioI
as il decIined in size and opeialionaI ieadiness. Op3
#+0.&/-06659 #%#- &- &.( +#,27#, 70*07&.59 &. '0( 1/+
Russia lhe onIy niIilaiy oplion open in case of allack
in a iegion effecliveIy denuded of convenlionaI niIi3
laiy povei. Chinas ieIalive niIilaiy infeiioiily nade
lhal piospecl ienole. olh Moscov and eijing couId
Iook lo slialegic pailneiship vilhoul lhe piospecl of
an eneiging niIilaiy lhieal. Chinese niIilaiy nod3
einizalion has in lhe Iasl yeai changed lhal peiceplion
in Moscov. Nov, vilh lhe eneigence of a polenliaI
convenlionaI lhieal fion ils foinei slialegic pailnei,
Russia is in lhe piocess of evaIualing vhelhei ils ie3
496
foined convenlionaI foices nighl achieve s vialIe de3
leiience in case of allack fion a nodeinized Chinese
niIilaiy. In lhe alsence of such a capaliIily, Russia
viII le foiced lo ganlIe even noie on lhealei nucIeai
foices and le even Iess viIIing lo considei ieduclions
in ils nonslialegic nucIeai foices. In lhe conlexl of an
incieasing niIilaiy confionlalion on lhe Koiean pen3
insuIa and peiiodic lensions lelveen Washinglon and
eijing ovei Taivan, Russias nev posluie adds one
fuilhei conpIicalion lo Luiasian secuiily foi aII pai3
lies and nakes Asian nucIeai foice ieduclions an even
noie conpIex piolIen foi Washinglon lo nanage.
85?5;=8! U 6L4:=82 KJ
1. This chaplei diavs heaviIy upon ieseaich done foi lhe pa3
pei, Asian Diiveis of Russias NucIeai Ioice Iosluie, vhich
viII le pulIished shoilIy ly lhe NonpioIifeialion Lducalion Cen3
lei of Washinglon, DC. The aulhoi vishes lo expiess his appiecia3
lion lo Heniy SokoIski, vho piovided invaIualIe connenls and
suggeslions on lhal papei.

2. RonaId D. Asnus, A |i|||c lar |na| Sncc| |nc lcr|d. Gccrgia,
Russia, and |nc |u|urc cf |nc lcs|, Nev Yoik: IaIgiave MacniIIan,
2O1O.
3. Tnc Na|icna| Sccuri|q S|ra|cgq cf |nc Uni|cd S|a|cs, Washing3
lon, DC: While House, May 27, 2O1O, p. 3, avaiIalIe fion uuu.
uni|cncusc.gct/si|cs/dcfau||/j|cs/rss_ticucr/na|icna|_sccuri|q_s|ra|-
cgq.pdf.
4. |oid., p. 44.
5. The olvious exceplion lo lhis viev is Zligniev izezinski.
His look, Tnc Grand Cncssocard. Ancrican Prinacq And ||s Gccs|ra-
|cgic |npcra|itcs, ieecled lhe assunplions of ils line, vhich as3
suned Aneiicas slalus as a supeipovei in a unipoIai Iandscape,
vheie lhe Uniled Slales couId foige aiiangenenls vilh olhei
iegionaI poveis. izezinski foiecasl Chinas spheie of inuence
497
lhal incIuded nol onIy lhe Russian Iai Lasl lul aIso easlein Si3
leiia and Iefl lhe inpiession anong Russian ieadeis lhal vhal
he vas puiposing vas a nev geopoIilicaI iecasling of lhe loaid
lo Russias disadvanlage. The look vas pailicuIaiIy popuIai in
Russia in 1999 duiing NATOs canpaign againsl Seilia vhen il
vas laken as an accuiale poiliayaI of Aneiican poIicy goaIs. See
Zligniev izezinski, Tnc Grand Cncssocard. Ancrican Prinacq And
||s Gccs|ra|cgic |npcra|itcs, Nev Yoik: asic ooks, 1998.
6. Iiezidenl Rossii, Vccnnaia dc||rina Rcssiis|ci |cdcra|sii (Mi|i-
|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O.
7. Andiei Teiekhov, Mudielsy NATO naponniIi Moskve o
Kilaiskon vyzove, Nczatisinaia gazc|a, Ieliuaiy 12, 2O1O.
8. A. Lukin, Russian-Chinese ReIalions: Keeping up lhe
Iace, |n|crna|icna| Affairs, No. 1, 2O1O, p.27.
9. Chiislina Yeung and Nelojda jeIakovic, The Sino-Rus3
sian Slialegic Iailneiship: Vievs fion eijing and Moscov, Tnc
]curna| cf S|atic Mi|i|arq S|udics, VoI. XXIIII, No 2, ApiiI-}une 2O1O,
pp. 243-281.
1O. }effiey Mankoff and LeIand R. MiIIei, China-Russia
Conpelilion Opens a Dooi foi Aneiica, |crocs, ApiiI 22, 2O1O,
avaiIalIe fion uuu.fcrocs.ccn/2010/04/22/cnina-russia-pc|i|ics-|cn-
sicn-nar|c|s-cccncnq-ci|-gas.n|n|?ocxcs=nar|c|scnannc|ncus.
11. AIeksandi Khianchikhin, MiIIiony soIdal pIius sovie3
nennoe vooiuzhenie, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, Oclolei 9,
2OO9.
12. Rogei McDeinoll, Russian MiIilaiy Iiepaies foi Voslok-
2O1O, |urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr, }une 2, 2O1O.
13. Roleil S. Noiiis and Hans S. Kiislensen, Russian NucIeai
Ioices, 2OO8, 8u||c|in cf |nc A|cnic Scicn|is|s, VoI. 64, No. 2, May-
}une 2OO8, pp. 54-57, 62.
14. Iuiii MikhaiIov, Sislena ugioz lezopasnosli Rossiiskoi
Ieedeialsii in ee olespechenie, Oricn|ir, No. 5, May 2O1O, pp. 49-
52.
498
15. On lhe faciIilies in lhese lvo okiugs, see lhe lvo chapleis
ly Chiislina Chuen and Dniliy Kovchegin in }anes CIay MoIlz,
VIadinii A. OiIov, and Adan M. SluIleig, eds., Prctcn|ing Nuc|c-
ar Mc||dcun. Managing Dcccn|ra|iza|icn cf Russias Nuc|car Ccnp|cx9
AIdeishol, UK, and uiIinglon, VT: Ashgale, 2OO4, pp. 1O5-134,
184-21O.
16. AIeksandi Khianchikhin, Neadekvalnyi voslok, Ncza-
tisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, }uIy 27, 2O1O.
17. The Quanlily of MiIilaiy Disliicls in Russia WiII e Re3
duced fion Six lo Ioui ly Decenlei 1 and OpeialionaI Slialegic
Connands WiII e Ioined, Dcfcnsc c Sccuri|q, May 31, 2O1O.
18. }acol W. Kipp, Russian Non-Slialegic NucIeai Weap3
ons, Mi|i|arq Rcticu, VoI. 81, No. 3, May-}une 2OO1, pp. 27-38.
19. AIeksei NikoIsky, To e Assessed ly Lasl, Vcdcncs-
|i, Maich 9, 2O1O, p. 2. On lhe nev Iook as a ganlIe on ad3
vanced lechnoIogy and nelvoik-cenliic vaifaie, see AIeksandi
Kondialev, Slavka na 'voiny ludushchego, Ncztasincc tccn-
ncc coczrcnic, }une 27, 2OO8.
2O. Kondialev, Slavka na 'voiny ludushchego.
21. Cennadii Miianovich, Voslochnyi vekloi, Krasnaia ztcz-
da, Maich 3, 2O1O.
22. Makhnul Caieev, Opyl poledileIei v VeIikoi voine ne
nozhel uslaiel, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, Maich 9, 2O1O.
23. |oid.
24. |oid.
25. AIesksei NikoIskii, Olsenku dasl 'Voslok, Vcdcncs|i9
Maich 9, 2O1O.
26. Dnilii Lilovkin, Ucheniia popaIi v seli, |ztcs|iia, Sep3
lenlei 28, 2OO9.
499
27. AIeksandi Kondialev, Nekoloiye osolennosli ieaIizal3
sii konlseplsii 'selelsenliicheskaia voina v vooiuzhennykh siIakh
KNR, Zaruocznncc tccnncc coczrcnic. No. 3, Maich 2O1O, pp. 11-
17.
28. Ucheniia, Zaruocznncc tccnncc coczrcnic , No. 8, }uIy 31,
2OO9, and AIeksandi Khianchikhin, Slaiye osnovy novoi dok3
liiny, Vccnnc-Prcnqsn|cnnqi Kurqcr, o. 6, Ieliuaiy 17, 2O1O, p. 5.
29. Novosli, VPK-Vccnncprcnqsn|cnnqi |urcr, Maich 3,
2O1O.
3O. Russia Slienglhens lhe oidei vilh China, Arguncn|q
ncdc|i, Maich 4-1O, 2O1O.
31. Iiezidenl Rossii, Vccnnaia Dc||rina Rcssiis|ci |cdcra|sii
(Mi|i|arq Dcc|rinc cf |nc Russian |cdcra|icn), Ieliuaiy 5, 2O1O.
32. VIadinii Mokhov, Osnovy nalsionaInoi lezopasnosli,
Krasnaia ztczda, Ieliuaiy 6, 2O1O.
33. VIadinii SIipchenko, 8cs|cn|a||nqc tcinq, Moscov, Rus3
sia: Cian-Iiess, 2OO1, pp. 29-39.
34. VIadinii SIipchenko and Makhnul Caieev, |u|urc la+9
Il. Leavenvoilh, KS: Ioieign MiIilaiy Sludies Ofhce, 2OO7, pp.
67-68.
35. Chiislophei ShuIgan, Tnc Sctic| Anoassadcr. Tnc Ma|ing cf
|nc Radica| 8cnind Pcrcs|rci|a, London, UK: McCIeIIand and Slev3
ail, 2OO8.
36. }acol W. Kipp, Ieieslioyka and Oidei |Ioiyadokj: AIlei3
nalive Iuluies and Theii Inpacl on lhe Soviel MiIilaiy, Mi|i|arq
Rcticu, No. 12, Decenlei 1989, pp. 2-16.
37. Ceoige L. Rueckeil, G|coa| Dcuo|c Zcrc. Tnc |N| Trca|q
|rcn ||s Origins |c |np|cncn|a|icn, Weslpoil, CT: Cieenvood
Iiess, 1993, }ohn oiavski, |rcn |nc A||an|ic |c |nc Ura|s. Ncgc-
|ia|ing Arns Ccn|rc| a| |nc S|cc|nc|n Ccnfcrcncc, Washinglon, DC:
Ieiganon-iassey InleinalionaI Defense IulIisheis, 1988, Ivo H.
5OO
DaaIdei, Tnc C|| Trca|q. An Otcrticu and an Asscssncn|9 ?0("3
inglon, DC: The }ohns Hopkins Ioieign IoIicy Inslilule, 1991, and
MichaeI R. eschIoss and Sliole TaIloll, A| |nc Higncs| |ctc|s. Tnc
|nsidc S|crq cf |nc |nd cf |nc Cc|d lar, oslon, MA: LillIe, iovn,
and Conpany, 1993.
38. V. UsoIlsev. 'CoIulye noInii i Rosssiiskie Ielchiki edul
v Kilai, Krasnaia ztczda, ApiiI 11, 1992.
39. Richaid Weilz, The Shanghai Coopeialion Oiganizalion:
The Iiinakov Vision and CenliaI Asian ReaIilies, ||c|cncr |crun
cf lcr|d Affairs, VoI. 31, No. 1, 2OO7, pp. 1O3-118.
4O. MaishaII I. CoIdnan, Pc|rcs|a|c. Pu|in, Pcucr and |nc Ncu
Russia, Nev Yoik: Oxfoid Univeisily Iiess, 2OO8.
41. Roy AIIison and Lena }onson, eds. Ccn|ra| Asian Sccuri|q9
London, UK: RoyaI Inslilule of InleinalionaI Affaiis, 1991.
42. Shanghai Coopeialion Oiganizalion Chailei, Cnina
Dai|q, }une 12, 2OO6, avaiIalIe fion uuu.cninadai|q.ccn.cn/cni-
na/2006-06/12/ccn|cn|_614628.n|n.
43. Ieioz Hassan Khan, The Nev Cieal Cane in CenliaI
Asia/Soulh Asia: Conlinuily and Change, in ChaiIes Havkins
and Roleil L. Love, eds., Tnc Ncu Grca| Ganc. Cnincsc Vicus cn
Ccn|ra| Asia, Il. Leavenvoilh, KS: Ioieign MiIilaiy Sludies Ofhce,
2OO6, pp. 1-16.
44. C. A. Ziuganov, Raspiava vo VIadivosloke ne doIzhena
oslalsia leznakazannoi, Pratda, Decenlei 15, 2OO8.
45. Seigei Iagov, Russia HaiIs oidei DeaI vilh China De3
spile Ciilicisn, |urasian Dai|q Mcni|cr, VoI. 2, No. 1O2, May 25,
2OO5, avaiIalIe fion uuu.jancs|cun.crg/sing|c/?nc_cacnc=1c|x_
||ncus58||_ncus5D=30445.
46. }eanne L. WiIson, S|ra|cgic Par|ncrs. Russian-Cnincsc Rc|a-
|icns in |nc Pcs|-Sctic| |ra, Ainonk, NY: M. L. Shaipe, 2OO4, pp.
126-127.
5O1
47. This piocess has leen addiessed in lhe voik of Chiislina
Chuan, NucIeai Issues in lhe Iai Laslein IedeiaI Okiug, in
}anes CIay MoIls, VIadinii A. OIav, and Adan M. SloIleig, eds.,
Prctcn|ing Nuc|car Mc||dcun. Managing Dcccn|ra|iza|icn cf Russias
Nuc|car Ccnp|cx, AIdeishol, UK, and uiIinglon, VT: Ashgale,
2OO4, pp. 1O5-134.
48. VIadinii IyIe, SpasileInyi Kilai` Oricn|ir, No. 3, Maich
2OO9, pp. 8-11.
49. Iai Lasl Iooks lo China foi inveslnenl, Tnc Russian
]curna|, Oclolei 1O, 2OO3, avaiIalIe fion uuu.russiajcurna|.ccn/
ncdc/16455.
5O. Konslanlin Iieoliazhensky, Thiough Russia Wilh
Kin }ong II, Ncr|n Kcrcan Rcticu, VoI. 1, No. 1, Ieliuaiy 29,
2OO4, avaiIalIe fion uuu.jancs|cun.crg/sing|c/?nc_cacnc=1c|x_
||ncus58||_ncus5D=26321.
51. AIexandei Voionlsov, Cuiienl Russia-Noilh Koiea Re3
Ialions: ChaIIenges and Achievenenls, Washinglon, DC: The
iookings Inslilulion, Ieliuaiy 2OO7, avaiIalIe fion uuu.orcc|-
ings.cdu/papcrs/2007/02ncr|n|crca_tcrcn|sct.aspx.
52. Russian SpeciaIisls Aiiive in S. Koiea lo Iiole Waiship
Sinking, R|A Nctcs|i, May 31, 2O1O, Russia, N. Koiea lo Con3
linue ConsuIlalions lo SellIe Inlei-Koiean Conicl, R|A Nctcs|i9
May 28, 2O1O, and Russia, Soulh Koiea lo Discuss Cheonan Issue
Thuisday, R|A Nctcs|i, }une 2, 2O1O.
53. Asnus, A |i|||c lar |na| Sncc| |nc lcr|d.
54. MikhaiI aialanov, Anlon Laviov, and ViachesIav TseIui3
ko, Tan|i augus|a. Socrni| s|a|ci, Moscov, Russia: Tsenli AnaIiza
Slialegii i lekhnoIogii, 2OO9.
55. VaIeiii ShchelIanin, Voennaia lezopasnosl na voslok
Rossii ludel olespechena, 8uria|iia, Ieliuaiy 2O, 2O1O.
56. Rogei McDeinoll, 'ViiluaI Defense of lhe Russian Iai
Lasl, Voslok 2O1O, |urasian Dai|q Mcni|cr, VoI. VII, No. 129, }uIy
6, 2O1O.
5O2
57. Voslok-2O1O lez konkielnykh piolivnikov, |n|crfax,
}une 28, 2O1O .
58. HypolhelicaI opponenls aie nol nev and aie nol lhe piod3
ucl of posl-nodein poIilicaI coiieclness. Those faniIiai vilh lhe
exeicises of lhe U.S. Ainy aflei WoiId Wai II viII ienenlei IM
3O-1O2, Handocc| cn Aggrcsscr Mi|i|arq |crccs, pulIished in 1947,
vhich slaled: The counliy, peopIes and foices desciiled heiein
aie enliieIy hclilious. Any iesenlIance lo exisling counliies oi
foices is inadveilenl and coincidenlaI. Thal nolionaI opponenl,
CiicIe Tiigon vilh ils Lspeianlo-speaking opposing foices con3
linued lo le used in US Ainy exeicises inlo lhe 197Os. Such an
ofhciaI oiienlalion did nol pievenl U.S. foices fion exeicising
againsl a nolionaI opponenl lhal Iooked sonelhing Iike lhe Red
Ainy, and ly lhe 198Os lhe OIIOR (opposing foice) al lhe Na3
lionaI Tiaining Cenlei had evoIved inlo a veiy good iepIicalion of
a Soviel noloiized iie ieginenl. Thus, hypolhelicaI opponenls
can ovei line evoIve inlo piolalIe opponenls.
59. V Rossii nachinaiulsia nasshlalnye ucheniia
'Voslok-2O1O, R8C.ru, }une 29, 2O1O.
6O. Opial lez piolivnika` Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic9
}uIy 2, 2OO2.
61. Seidiukov ne veveI usliaival voinu dvukh ainii, Ncza-
tisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, }uIy 9, 2O1O.
62. Dniliii Medvedev poslaviI peied daInon voslokon
gIavnye zadachi, Rcspuo|i|a Arncniia, }uIy 7, 2O1O.
63. AIeksandi Sadchikov, Chelveilyi pokhod na Voslok,
|ztcs|iia, }uIy 9, 2O1O.
64. V khode uchenii 'Voslok-2O1O Rossiiskie voennye olide3
Ii Iaponiiu s osolyn paznakhon, N|lSru, }uIy 7, 2O1O.
65. AIeksandi KoIesnichenko, Ucheniia, ukiylye lunanon,
Nctqc iztcs|iia, }uIy 5, 2O1O.
5O3
66. AIeksandi Khianhikhin. Neadekvalnyi voslok, Ncza-
tisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, }uIy 27, 2O1O.
67. |oid.
68. AIeksandi Khianchikhin. Chelyie vekloia Rossiiskoi
oloiony, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, May 21, 2O1O.
69. AIeksandi Khianchikhin, SIalosl piovolziiuel siInee,
chen noshch, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic, Maich 19, 2O1O.
7O. iuce Ianniei. Unspoken Russian-Chinese RivaIiy Is
Sullexl of SCO Sunnil, R||/R|, }une 1O, 2O1O.
71. Kilailsy odvigaiul gianilsu s Rossiei, Vrcnia i dcngi, }une
8, 2O1O.
72. NalaIia Osliovskaia, Zachen Rossii DaInyi Voslok`
Kcnscnc|s|aia pratda, May 28, 2O1O.
73. Seigei Laviov, Novyi dogovoi o SNV v naliilse gIolaInoi
lezopasnosli, Mczndunarcdnaia znizn, No. 7, }uIy 2O1O. On lhe
nolion of a piocess Iasling lo 2O45, see VIadinii Kozin, 6 Ol3
slacIes lo NucIeai Zeio, Mcsccu Tincs, Augusl 3, 2O1O.
74. Seigei Kazennov and VIadinii Kunachev, Ne nado al3
soIiuliziioval 'ukgiazu s vosloka, Nczatisincc tccnncc coczrcnic9
Augusl 13, 2O1O, p. 12.
5O5
4/;3= =L8 6;5=2-/3=;2!
STLIHLN }. LANK has seived as lhe Slialegic
Sludies Inslilules expeil on lhe Soviel lIoc and lhe
posl-Soviel voiId since 1989. Iiioi lo lhal he vas As-
sociale Iiofessoi of Soviel Sludies al lhe Cenlei foi
Aeiospace Docliine, Reseaich, and Lducalion, Max-
veII Aii Ioice ase, AL, and laughl al lhe Univeisily
of Texas, San Anlonio, and al lhe Univeisily of CaIi-
foinia, Riveiside. Di. Iank is lhe ediloi of |npcria|
Dcc|inc. Russias Cnanging Pcsi|icn in Asia9 7/#,&./+ /1
Sctic| Mi|i|arq and |nc |u|urc9 0-, 02."/+ /1 Tnc Scr-
ccrcr as Apprcn|icc. S|a|ins Ccnnissaria| cf Na|icna|i-
|ics, 1917-1924. He has aIso viillen nany ailicIes and
confeience papeis on Russia, lhe ConnonveaIlh of
Independenl Slales, and Laslein Luiopean secuiily is-
sues. Di. Ianks cuiienl ieseaich deaIs vilh pioIifeia-
lion and lhe ievoIulion in niIilaiy affaiis, and eneigy
and secuiily in Luiasia. His lvo nosl iecenl looks aie
Russc-Cnincsc |ncrgq Rc|a|icns. Pc|i|ics in Ccnnand9
London, UK: CIolaI Maikels iiehng, 2OO6, and Na|-
ura| A||ics? Rcgicna| Sccuri|q in Asia and Prcspcc|s fcr
|ndc-Ancrican S|ra|cgic Cccpcra|icn, CaiIisIe, IA: Slia-
legic Sludies Inslilule, U.S. Ainy Wai CoIIege, 2OO5.
Di. Iank hoIds a .A. in hisloiy fion lhe Univeisily
of IennsyIvania, and an M.A. and Ih.D. in hisloiy
fion lhe Univeisily of Chicago.
IAVLL K. ALV is a Reseaich Iiofessoi al lhe
Ieace Reseaich Inslilule, OsIo (IRIO), he is aIso af3
hIialed vilh lhe Cenlie foi lhe Sludy of CiviI Wai al
IRIO. He voiked in a ieseaich inslilule in lhe USSR
Defence Minisliy, and lhen voiked in lhe Inslilule
of Luiope, Moscov, lefoie joining IRIO in Oclolei
1992. In 1995-2OO1, he vas lhe ediloi of IRIOs quai3
5O6
.#+65 4/2+-069 Sccuri|q Dia|cguc, and in 1998-2OO4, he
vas a nenlei of lhe IRIO oaid. Di. aevs ieseaich
on lhe liansfoinalion of lhe Russian niIilaiy is sup3
poiled ly lhe Noivegian Defence Minisliy, olhei
ieseaich inleiesls incIude lhe eneigy and secuiily di3
nensions of lhe Russian-Luiopean ieIalions and posl-
Soviel conicl nanagenenl in lhe Caucasus and lhe
giealei Caspian aiea. His veekIy coIunn appeais in
|urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr and his Ialesl look, Russian |n-
crgq Pc|icq and Mi|i|arq Pcucr, vas pulIished ly Lon3
don, UK: RoulIedge, 2OO8. Di. aev hoIds an MA in
poIilicaI geogiaphy fion lhe Moscov Slale Univeisily
and a Ih.D. in inleinalionaI ieIalions fion lhe USA &
Canada Inslilule, USSR Acadeny of Sciences.
STLIHLN }. CIMALA is Dislinguished Iiofessoi
of IoIilicaI Science al Ienn Slale Univeisily-iandy3
vine and has conliiluled lo lhe Iileialuie in U.S. na3
.&/-06 (#72+&.5 */6&759 -276#0+ 0+8( 7/-.+/69 0-, /."#+
lopics foi nany yeais. Di. CinlaIa is a pasl vinnei of
lhe univeisilys Lisenhovei Avaid foi dislinguished
leaching and has seived as a consuIlanl lo vaiious
U.S. Coveinnenl agencies and defense conliaclois.
He nosl iecenlIy ediled and conliiluled a chaplei foi
The Ceoige W. ush Defense Iiogian (IaIIs Chuich,
VA: Iolonac, 2O1O).
DANILL COURL is a Vice Iiesidenl vilh lhe Lex3
inglon Inslilule, a nonpiohl pulIic-poIicy ieseaich oi3
ganizalion headquaileied in AiIinglon, Viiginia. Di.
Couie has heId senioi posilions in lolh lhe piivale
secloi and lhe U.S. Coveinnenl. Iiioi lo joining lhe
Lexinglon Inslilule, he vas lhe Depuly Diiecloi, Inlei3
nalionaI Secuiily Iiogian al lhe Cenlei foi Slialegic
and InleinalionaI Sludies. Di. Couie spenl 2 yeais in
5O7
lhe U.S. Coveinnenl as lhe diiecloi of lhe Ofhce of
Slialegic Conpeliliveness in lhe Ofhce of lhe Secie3
laiy of Defense. He aIso seived as a senioi anaIysl on
nalionaI secuiily and defense issues vilh lhe Cenlei
foi NavaI AnaIyses, Science AppIicalions Inleinalion3
aI Coipoialion, SRS TechnoIogies, R&D Associales,
and Syslen IIanning Coipoialion. Di. Couie hoIds a
.A. in Coveinnenl and Hisloiy fion Ionona CoI3
Iege, and Masleis and Ih.D. degiees in inleinalionaI
ieIalions and Russian sludies fion }ohns Hopkins
Univeisily.
DALL R. HLRSIRINC is a Univeisily Dislin3
guished Iiofessoi al Kansas Slale Univeisily, a nen3
lei of lhe CounciI on Ioieign ReIalions, and a ieliied
U.S. dipIonal and Navy caplain. He is lhe aulhoi of
13 looks and cIose lo 1OO ailicIes. His foilhconing
pulIicalions incIude a look lo le enlilIed Snarcd Rc-
spcnsioi|i|q and Citi|-Mi|i|arq Rc|a|icns. Tnc Ancrican,
Canadian, Gcrnan and Russian Cascs and Ciealing
Shaied ResponsiliIily Thiough Respecl foi MiIilaiy
CuIluie: lhe Russian and Aneiican Cases, Puo|ic Ad-
ninis|ra|icn Rcticu, }uIy 2O11.
}ACO KIII laughl al Kansas Slale Univeisily
fion 1971 lo 1985. In 1986, he joined lhe Soviel Ainy
Sludies Ofhce (SASO) al Il. Leavenvoilh, KS. In 1991,
SASO lecane lhe Ioieign MiIilaiy Sludies Ofhce
(IMSO). Iion 2OO3 lo 2OO6, Di. Kipp seived as Diiec3
loi of IMSO. In 2OO6 he look lhe posilion of Depuly
Diiecloi of lhe SchooI of Advanced MiIilaiy Sludies
(SAMS). He ieliied fion fedeiaI seivice in 2OO9. Di.
Kipp has viillen exlensiveIy on Russian and Soviel
niIilaiy and navaI hisloiy, avialion, slialegy, opeia3
lionaI ail, and niIilaiy docliine. He seived as depuly
5O8
#,&./+ /1 Mi|i|arq Affairs9 0( 0((&(.0-. #,&./+ /1 ."# ]cur-
na| cf S|atic Mi|i|arq S|udics, as founding co-ediloi of
|urcpcan Sccuri|q, and as a nenlei of lhe ediloiiaI
loaid of lhe Mcdcrn lar S|udics Scrics of lhe Univei3
sily Iiess of Kansas. He is a nenlei of lhe Russian
Acadeny of NaluiaI Sciences. Al piesenl, he is an ad3
juncl piofessoi of Hisloiy, and Russian and Luiasian
Sludies al lhe Univeisily of Kansas and a conliiluloi
lo lhe }aneslovn Ioundalions |urasian Dai|q Mcni-
|cr. Di. Kipp voiked cIoseIy vilh Maiy IilzgeiaId on
seveiaI piojecls ieIaling lo Soviel and Russian niIilaiy
affaiis. Di. Kipp hoIds a Ih.D. fion lhe IennsyIvania
Slale Univeisily.
ROCLR N. MCDLRMOTT is a giaduale of lhe Uni3
veisily of Oxfoid speciaIizing in defense and secuiily
issues in lhe ConnonveaIlh of Independenl Slales
(CIS). He is a Senioi IeIIov in Luiasian MiIilaiy Slud3
ies, }aneslovn Ioundalion, Washinglon, DC, Senioi
InleinalionaI IeIIov, Ioieign MiIilaiy Sludies Ofhce,
Ioil Leavenvoilh, and, AfhIialed Senioi AnaIysl,
Danish Inslilule foi InleinalionaI Sludies, Copenha3
gen. Mi. McDeinoll is on lhe ediloiiaI loaid of Ccn-
|ra| Asia and |nc Caucasus and lhe scienlihc loaid of
."# ]curna| cf Pcucr |ns|i|u|icns in Pcs|-Sctic| Sccic|ics.
His ailicIes appeai in schoIaiIy jouinaIs incIuding lhe
]curna| cf S|atic Mi|i|arq S|udics, and his veekIy as3
sessnenls of secuiily deveIopnenls in CenliaI Asia,
|urasia Dai|q Mcni|cr (}aneslovn Ioundalion), aie
iead ly poIicy pIanneis. He is aIso lhe co-ediloi of
lhe look, Russian Mi|i|arq Rcfcrn 1992-2002 (London,
UK/IoilIand, MD: Iiank Cass, 2OO3). Mi. McDeinoll
is aIso conducling exlensive poIicy oiienled ieseaich
inlo Russian defense iefoin and viII pulIish a look
on lhe nev Iook Russian ained foices, as veII as a
5O9
seninaI chaplei in a foilhconing look, pulIished ly
RoulIedge, lased on an IOI (Iieedon of Infoinalion)
confeience in Sveden (Oclolei 4-5, 2O1O), in vhich
he exanines Russian peispeclives on nelvoik-cenliic
vaifaie.
ANDRLI SHOUMIKHIN is Senioi AnaIysl al lhe
NalionaI Inslilule foi IulIic IoIicy. His pievious as3
signnenls veie as Diiecloi of lhe Washinglon Ofhce
of lhe Moscov IulIic Science Ioundalion and cooidi3
naloi of lhe Ioundalions piojecls in lhe Uniled Slales,
he vas associaled vilh lhe Inslilule of USA and Can3
ada Sludies of lhe Russian Acadeny of Sciences and
headed lhe USA Inslilules Cenlei foi lhe MiddIe Lasl
and Conicl ResoIulion. Di. Shounikhin vas iespon3
silIe foi anaIyses of U.S. foieign poIicy and lhe piepa3
ialion of anaIyses and ieconnendalions foi use ly
lhe Russian piesidenl, paiIianenlaiy connillees, and
vaiious ninisliies, vilh speciaI enphasis on conicl
iesoIulion and lhe ieIalionship lelveen lhe Uniled
Slales, Russia, and lhe deveIoping voiId. He vas
Iiesidenl of lhe Cenlei foi Conicl ResoIulion and
aIso seived as an inleipielei foi lhe Uniled Nalions
Secielaiial and lhe CenliaI Connillee of lhe Connu3
nisl Iaily in Moscov. Di. Shounikhin is a giaduale
of lhe Moscov Inslilule foi Ioieign Languages and lhe
Uniled Nalions TiansIalion and Inleipielei Couise.
He hoIds a Ih.D. in poIilicaI science fion lhe Inslilule
of USA and Canada Sludies.
NIKOLAI N. SOKOV is a Senioi Reseaich As3
sociale al }anes Mailin Cenlei foi NonpioIifeialion
Sludies al Monleiey Inslilule of InleinalionaI Slud3
ies, a Ciaduale SchooI of MiddIeluiy CoIIege. He
voiked al lhe Inslilule of U.S. and Canadian Sludies
51O
and lhe Inslilule of WoiId Lconony and InleinalionaI
ReIalions in Moscov. Iion 1987-92 he voiked al lhe
Minisliy foi Ioieign Affaiis of lhe Soviel Union and
Ialei Russia, and pailicipaled in START I and START
II negolialions as veII as in a nunlei of sunnil and
ninisleiiaI neelings. Di. Sokov has pulIished exlen3
siveIy on inleinalionaI secuiily and ains conlioI. He
&( ."# 02."/+ /1 Russian S|ra|cgic Mcdcrniza|icn. Pas|
and |u|urc (Lanhan, MD: Rovnan and LillIeheId,
2OOO), co-aulhoi and co-ediloi of lhe hisl Russian-Ian3
guage coIIege-IeveI lexllook on nucIeai nonpioIifeia3
lion (Yadcrncc Ncrasprcs|rancnic, VoI.I-II, IIR Cenlei,
1sl Ld., 2OOO, 2nd Ld., 2OO2), and seveiaI nonogiaphs.
Di. Sokov giadualed fion Moscov Slale Univeisily in
1981 and hoIds a Ih.D. fion lhe Univeisily of Michi3
gan and lhe Soviel equivaIenl of a Ih.D. Candidale of
HisloiicaI Sciences degiee fion lhe Inslilule of WoiId
Lconony and InleinalionaI ReIalions.
RICHARD WLITZ is Senioi IeIIov and Diiecloi of
lhe Cenlei foi IoIilicaI-MiIilaiy AnaIysis al Hudson
Inslilule. His cuiienl ieseaich incIudes iegionaI se3
cuiily deveIopnenls ieIaling lo Luiope, Luiasia, and
Lasl Asia as veII as U.S. foieign, defense, and hone3
Iand secuiily poIicies. Di. Weilz is aIso a non-iesidenl
Senioi Advisoi al lhe Iiojecl on NalionaI Secuiily Re3
foin (INSR), vheie he oveisees case sludy ieseaich.
He is a non-iesidenl Senioi IeIIov al lhe Cenlei foi a
Nev Aneiican Secuiily (CNAS), vheie he conliilules
lo vaiious defense piojecls. Di. Weilz has pulIished oi
ediled seveiaI looks and nonogiaphs, incIuding Tnc
Russian Mi|i|arq Tcdaq and Tcncrrcu (2O1O), G|coa| Sc-
curi|q la|cn-Russia (2OO9), a voIune of Na|icna| Sccu-
ri|q Casc S|udics (2OO8), Cnina-Russia Sccuri|q Rc|a|icns
(2OO8), Kaza|ns|an and |nc Ncu |n|crna|icna| Pc|i|ics cf
511
|urasia (2OO8), Misnanaging Maqncn. Hcu lasning|cn
Rcspcnds |c Crisis (2OO8), Tnc Rcscrtc Pc|icics cf Na|icns.
A Ccnpara|itc Ana|qsis (2OO7), and Rcti|a|ising US-
Russian Sccuri|q Cccpcra|icn. Prac|ica| Mcasurcs (2OO5).
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