Society for American Archaeology

Simulating Success or Failure: Another Look at Small-Population Dynamics

Author(s): Sylvia W. Gaines and Warren M. Gaines
Source: American Antiquity, Vol. 62, No. 4 (Oct., 1997), pp. 683-697
Published by: Society for American Archaeology
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SIMULATING SUCCESS OR FAILURE:
ANOTHER LOOK AT SMALL-POPULATION DYNAMICS
Sylvia
W. Gaines and Warren M. Gaines
Simulation can be an effective toolfor investigating the demography of small, prehistoric
Southwest Pueblo communities. The
model presented here incorporates biological and physiological, cultural, and behavioral characteristics and tracks each
individual as the simulation of a small population is carried forward through
70 years of annual iterations. Sensitivity analy-
ses are
performed for a suite of critical parameter values. Many of parameters and functions are probabilistic, and Monte
Carlo techniques are used to obtain statistically significant results. Simulation results are collected on numerous variables
that profile the individual and group characteristics such as mortality, immigration to emigration ratio, nuclear family for-
mination, and distribution of population size and mix. Initial success is dependent on the attributes of the founding population
and its gender mix. The long-term survival of a small population is extremely sensitive to the mortality schedule, attributes
of the founding population, and marriage-residence rules. Small shifts
in the age-specific mortality statistics dramatically
affect the population growth and the
frequency of site collapse. The consequences of inaccuracies in mortality statistics are
highlighted.
El tema de este articulo es la simulacion comprensiva
de una
pequena
comunidad prehistorica Pueblo del suroeste norteamer-
icano que incluye un modulo del ciclo de vida de la
poblacion.
El modulo del ciclo de vida de la poblacion incorpora
carac-
teristicas biologicas, culturales y conductuales y sigue la trayectoria de cada individuo al llevar la simulacion de esta
pequeina
poblacion a lo largo de 70 anios de repeticiones
anuales. Los pardmetros y lasfunciones empleadas
son fdcilmente ajustables y
pueden ser examinadas en una amplia escala de condiciones. Se utilizan las tecnicas Monte Carlo y se presentan
los resultados
para
un
grupo de valores de pardmetros
criticos. La supervivencia de una pequenia poblacion demuestra ser extremadamente
sensible al calendario de supervivencia y a las reglas de residencia marital. El exito inicial es dependiente de la esperanza de
vida de la poblacion fundadora y de la mezcla de sexos de sus descendientes. Los resultados de la simulacion se tomaron de
numerosas variables las cuales perfilan las caracteristicas individuales y grupales tales como record de mortalidad, tendencias
en la proporcion inmigracion/emigracion, organizacion de la familia nuclear y mezcla poblacional. Cambios pequeniios
en las
estadisticas de edad
especifica
de sobrevivencia demuestran que estos influyen dramaticamente en el
potencial de crecimiento
de la poblacion y en la frecuencia de su colapso. Se destacan las consecuencias de las inexactitudes en las estadisticas de mor-
talidad.
A model can be more accurate than the data
used to build it because it
amplifies
hidden
pat-
terns and discards unwanted noise.-Gauch
(1993:468)
As
archaeologists
have become more
sophisticated
in the use of
modeling sys-
tems, the
scope
has broadened from sim-
ple
models
illustrating
a set of events to one of
analyzing
the
impact
of
underlying
causes.
Numerical simulation forces the transformation of
conjecture
into formal models, which allow
explo-
ration of a multitude of
approaches
and ideas.
Hypothesized explanations
can be evaluated in the
context of alternates, and this "virtual archaeol-
ogy" permits
extraction of schema from data that
may
not be evident from more conventional
approaches.
This
expanded
theoretical arsenal for
treating
phenomena
not
directly
observable
permits analysis
of cultural and
physiological
influences addressed
in this
paper.
The
impetus
of the research stemmed
from
questions concerning
the
great
number of
small habitation sites in the American Southwest.
While
many
sites were seasonal or used for limited
activities, a
significant
number have been identified
as
permanent
habitations (Hantman 1989). It is this
Sylvia W. Gaines *
Department
of
Anthropology, Arizona State University, Tempe,
AZ 85287-2402
Warren M. Gaines * CSD&A, 3602 North 49th Street, Phoenix, AZ 85018
American
Antiquity, 62(4), 1997, pp.
683-697.
Copyright
?
by the Society for American Archaeology
683
AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
-Annual Iteration
Cultural Behavior:
-Marriage
of eligible females; age randomly
selected
-New husband given attributes,
added to role
-Departure of males of marriagable age
-Widowers remarried or placed
in marriage pool
-Departure of widowers not remarried after suitable period
Behavioral Rules and Survival Schedule
ConceDtion:
If married female,
check for
a) Steriity; b)
Post partum infertility
-Conception randomly determined from fertility probability
schedule
Fertility Schedule
Birth Results (if preQnant):
>\ 0
~~-Probability
of birth-crisis or infant-death checked
-Child's life
span randomly
selected from survival schedule
/r4 shdl
-Other attributes randomly assigned: sex, year marries, etc.
-Child added to role
Sural schedule
Summary;
-Individual, family,
and population
statistics
-Inivdua, um__v
Figure
1.
Sequence
of
operations
in the Life
Cycle
Model. "RND" is
input
from a
pseudorandom
number
generator.
group
that is considered here. Quite frequently,
these sites were abandoned after a short
occupation
of 20 to 30
years
or less; however, some small
pop-
ulations managed
to survive and to prosper.
Undoubtedly, many complex
factors contributed to
survival or
early
site abandonment, including
envi-
ronmental conditions, availability
of resources, and
competitive pressures.
How human factors con-
Founding Porulation
Attributes preset gender, age
at death, date of marriage, fertility
; i
Uodate Individual Records:
-Delete deaths and emigrants from active list
-Update age classification: infant, chdd,
juvenile,
adult, non-productive
RND
RND
RND
[Vol. 62,
No.
4, 1997] 684
REPORTS
tributed to site
collapse
has received less attention.
Preliminary
work (Gaines and Gaines 1994, 1996)
found
significant
differences between
predictions
based on
"average
characteristics"
representing
cul-
tural behavior and simulation results
reflecting
indi-
vidual attributes.
Expanding
on these earlier
studies, we have focused on the influence of bio-
logical
characteristics on
small-population demog-
raphy
when constrained
by
cultural rules of
marriage
and
residency.
The results offer
promise
of
a better
understanding
of small-site abandonment.
The attributes of the individuals who
comprise
the initial
population
of small sites define the char-
acter of
early occupation,
while the inherent mor-
tality
defines
longer
term survival of the
community.
Within this framework, success
depends
on several factors:
reproductive
life
span
(opportunity
to
produce
more children), fraction
of time married
(greater
realization of
reproduc-
tive
potential), and, in a matrilocal
society,
a
pre-
dominance of female births
(girls marry, adding
to
population growth,
while
boys emigrate).
These
observations are
intuitively
obvious. What is not
so obvious is the relative
importance
of
physio-
logical
and cultural factors on these trends. Our
objective
was to
quantify
these interactions
through
the use of simulation.
Specifically,
the simulation was
targeted
at
three areas:
1.
Exploring
the
impact
of variations in the
underlying biological
and
physiological
character-
istics on the
vitality
of small
populations.
In
par-
ticular, we focus on
sensitivity
to differences in
mortality
and factors
influencing
effective birth
rate observed in the
prehistoric
American
Southwest, as well as the
biological
attributes of
the initial
group
that
populates
the site.
2.
Assessing implications
of strict adherence to
cultural rules on the
viability
of the
population;
in
particular,
the
impact
of
monogamous
relation-
ships
and constraints on
remarriage.
3.
Investigating
correlation between
population
size and nuclear
family
formation.
Methodology
Computer
simulations
representing prehistoric
activities are
prevalent
in current literature (see
e.g.,
Biskowski 1992; Black 1978; Dyke
and
MacCluer 1973; Gilbert and Doran 1994; Hegmon
1989; Hodder 1978; Horvitz et al. 1971; Kohler et
al. 1996; McArthur et al. 1973; MacCluer 1967,
1973; Mithen 1990; Roth 1981; Sabloff 1981;
Skolnick and
Cannings 1973; Ward et al. 1973).
Any
model is an abstraction of the world it emu-
lates; depending
on the researcher's interest, dif-
ferent models are created to
represent
the
complex
and varied
phenomena
with which the archaeolo-
gist
is concerned. Our Life
Cycle
Model (LCM)
emphasizes
the interaction of cultural and
biolog-
ical-physiological
factors and
provides
a fine-
grained, microdemographic perspective. Many
parameters
are
probabilistic
and the LCM is for-
mulated to
explore
the
spectrum
of
consequences
as the stochastic nature of the variables is allowed
to
operate.'
Approach
The
questions posed
are treated in the context of a
single,
small matrilocal
group
with
exogamous
marriage patterns.
Diachronic simulation is car-
ried forward, year by year,
from the
founding
to 70
years
or to site abandonment.2 Quantification for
the simulation is based on
empirical
evidence
from
archaeology, ethnography,
and
early
historic
reports.
Where this was not
possible,
values are
drawn from standard
physiological
characteristics
and
contemporary
Native American customs.
Structure
of
Model
The short-term
occupancy
of a site demands con-
sideration of the
specific
attributes of the initial,
what we label
"founding," population
in
Figure
1.
For
consistency,
the studies discussed involve
three families (10 individuals) in the
founding
group.
Each individual is tracked
through
his or her
life-from birth to death. The
trajectory
of a
par-
ticular individual's life is
dependent
on the attrib-
utes
assigned
and the
varying
constraints of the
cultural environment. Because of the
probabilistic
nature, every
individual's life is
unique
and will be
different if the simulation is
repeated.
Cultural customs and rules
relating
to
marriage,
remarriage, polygyny,
birth
spacing, age
of last
birth, and widowers' and
locally
born males' resi-
dencies are addressed.
Marriage
occurs within
defined
age ranges.
An
immigrant spouse's age
is
based on the
marriage rules, his
age
at death is cal-
culated from the
age-specific
survival schedule
using
conditional
probability,
and an ID is
685
AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
assigned
to him.
Locally
born males leave the
community
at
marriage age (subject
to certain
family responsibility constraints).
Each married female's
fertility
status is
checked
annually.
If no birth
spacing
constraints
apply (either biological
or cultural), whether con-
ception
occurs is determined
by
use of an
age-spe-
cific
fertility probability
function.
The
probability
of fetal death or infant mortal-
ity
is checked. If a birth crisis or infant death does
not occur, age
at death is
assigned using
an
age-
specific
survival schedule with a
pseudorandom
number
generator.
The child is
assigned
the other
random attributes (sex, fertility, marriage age, etc.)
and is
given
an ID in the
population pool.
No
social status is
assigned.
The entire
process
is iterated
annually. Regional
issues are not addressed; however, the
migration
of
males who leave and those who enter for
marriage
with
locally
born females is considered. While
inclusion of
regional
or site interaction
(fissioning
or mutual intersite
support)
is
beyond
the
scope
of
the immediate research, the results of the simula-
tion allow identification of factors that
may
lead to
success or failure on a broader scale.
Marriage, family association, life
expectancy,
and 22 other variables are monitored on each indi-
vidual.
Model
Qualifications
Most
assumptions
related to
quantification
are
noted in the
"Implementation"
section. Those with
broader
implication
for the
conceptual
framework
include:
* The autonomous nature of the LCM restricts
regional relationships
and
aggregation.
*
Cognitive-based
corrective actions
(decision
processes)
are not
operative;
rules
relating
rela-
tionships
are set at initialization and remain fixed
for each case.3
* Subsistence
deficiency
and other
physiologi-
cal stresses are innate to the
mortality
data and are
not
explicitly
defined.
* The model is structured with
assumptions
rel-
evant to small
populations,
and some can be chal-
lenged
as
group
size increases; e.g.,
no intrasite
marriage
between those born
locally.
*
Matrilocality
and
exogamous marriage pat-
terns with the associated
implications
on male
migration
are central to the model structure.
Implications
of these restrictions are examined
further in
"Interpretation
and Discussion."
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis
is used to
generate
the results.
A set of default values and functions defines a "ref-
erence case." Extensive
testing
of the model for
validity
has
provided insight to the more critical
parameters.
Our
approach
was to define a set of
relevant incremental
changes
from the reference
case for each of these
parameters.
This combina-
tion of
parameter changes composes
the suite of
variations
explored
in detail
during
the
sensitivity
studies. The
magnitude
of the
perturbations
in
pop-
ulation
vitality resulting
from a
change suggests
the
sensitivity
to that
particular parameter.
These
parameters
are detailed in
"Implementation."
Primarily,
first order
sensitivity analyses
were
performed, i.e., only
one
parameter
is varied at a
time.
Implementation
In
quantifying
the LCM, we drew
heavily
from
data
reflecting
the Colorado Plateau of the
American Southwest. Therefore, the model most
realistically
emulates a small Puebloan commu-
nity
in the A.D. 1050-1350 time frame. The model
is not
representative
of
any particular
site. Since a
wide
range
of
parameter
values is
investigated,
ascribing
these to a
particular
site could be misin-
terpreted.
Characterizing Biological/Physiological
Aspects
Fifty-one parameters
and
age-specific
survival
and
fertility
functions are
employed
in establish-
ing
the character of a
particular
individual.
Only
key demographic parameters
of
mortality (sur-
vival schedules),
infant
mortality,
and
fertility
will
be discussed.
Survival Schedules. To assure a
range
of sur-
vival characteristics for the
sensitivity study,
sev-
eral different
mortality
data sets are used to
develop
the five survival schedules
employed
in
the
analyses. Many reports
derive life tables
(or
abridged
life
tables)
from skeletal records in the
Southwest (see e.g.,
Bennett 1973, Point of Pines;
Berry 1985, Grasshopper; Hayes 1981, Gran
Quivira;
Martin et al. 1991, Black Mesa;
Mobley
1980, Pecos; Palkovich 1980, 1983, Arroyo
686
[Vol. 62, No.
4, 1997]
REPORTS
j 0.6
?0.4--
\
^.
L -
REFERENCE
0.2
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
AGE AT DEATH
Figure 2.
Comparison of alternate survival schedules. The
"REV-P," "WEST-5," and "REFERENCE" survival sched-
ules are identical at
age
20 and
younger.
The derivation of the
Long-Life
survival schedule results in
slightly higher
survival at
age 20. All schedules shown are based on survivors at
age
two.
Hondo; Stodder 1990, Hawikki). Unfortunately,
most Southwest
prehistoric
skeletal series are
faulted as not
representing
the
mortality
statistics
of the
population.
Methods of
constructing
life
tables under these
circumstances, as well as the
skepticism
of
using
skeletal data at all, have been
discussed
extensively
in the literature
(Boquet-
Appel
and Masset
1982, 1985; Buikstra and
Konigsberg 1985; Buikstra and Mielke 1985;
Holland 1989; Howell 1976; Martin et al. 1991;
Moore et al. 1975; Swedlund 1975; Weiss 1973,
1975). Our interest is not to debate these issues but
to use
representative
skeletal records and
generic
life tables to
explore
the
impact
of variations in
mortality.
Alternate Survival Schedules
The survival schedules that follow were all
derived from
published data; however, each
schedule deviates from the
original
data for
appli-
cation in our model. In
particular,
all are based on
survivors at
age two; all assume
equal mortality
rates for male and female; all terminate at
age
60
or before; and the data are smoothed. The rationale
for these conditions are discussed later.
* The Point of Pines skeletal record
(Bennett
1973) was selected for
constructing
the "reference
case" survival schedule. While not
representing
an
extreme
(e.g.,
see the Hawikki data in Stodder
[1990]),
the Point of Pines data set reflects rela-
tively
short adult life
expectancies.
As such, it
formed a lower bound for the
sensitivity
studies.
. The
composite
Pecos data, as
analyzed by
Mobley (1980), were used to construct an alter-
nate site-based survival schedule.
Although
the
Pecos data set suffers from
problems
of
sampling
and
preservation
bias
(also, recent
analysis
has
questioned the
age
classifications
[Ruff
1981]),
this data set
typifies
several skeletal series at
ages
above 20
years
that have
higher survivorship
than
Point of Pines data. Since it was modified exten-
sively
for
adaptation
to our
model, the term
"Pecos" would be
inappropriate;
so the revised
schedule is referred to as the "Rev-P" schedule.
* Consistent error in
age
classification is a con-
tinuing
concern with
empirically
based
mortality
data. To assess the
importance,
a schedule was
synthesized
from the reference schedule
assuming
a 20
percent older classification for each
age, e.g.,
the fraction
surviving
at
age
20 was then at
age 24,
30 was 36, etc. As the simulations
progressed,
finer resolution was needed and a second
synthe-
sized schedule
using
a 10
percent upgrade
was
created. These are called the
"Long-Life" and
"Long-Life
10" schedules, respectively.
* Inclusion of a
theoretically
based schedule
was
necessary
to assure a full
spectrum
of mortal-
ity
variation at older
ages.
A survival schedule
687
AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
L 0.8
-J
< 0.6
m
t 0.4
0.2
0 10 20 30 40 50
AGE, YEARS
Figure 3. Age-specific survival and fertility probability
schedules used in the reference case. The survival curve
relates to survivors after age two. Infant death before age
two is determined by the setting of the infant mortality
parameter. The fertility curve is normalized to 1.0 at the
highest value.
based on the Coale and
Demeny (1983:Table
XIV) West-Male-5 table, referred to in the
sequel
as the "West-5" schedule, was added.
While not
embodying
the extremes, these
schedules
span
the
range
of most of the
published
Southwest skeletal series. The differences in these
schedules in the critical
20-to-60-age range
are
shown in
Figure
2. Identical values are used for
ages younger
than 20 for Rev-P, West-5, and the
reference survival schedules.
Infant Mortality.
Considerable variation exists
in
projections
for infant
mortality (Skolnick and
Canning 1973).
It is believed to be
high
and esti-
mates
range
from 20
percent
to as
high
as 50
per-
cent
by age
five (Aberle 1932; Berry 1985; Ford
1992). Rather than
accept
the reconciliation or
reconstruction
employed by
other researchers to
compensate
for the
persistent problems
of under-
enumeration (Palkovich 1980; Weiss 1973),
we
introduced a
paradigm
for
representing
infant mor-
tality;
"birth crisis" (intrauterine
death or stillborn)
and "infant
mortality" (mortality
from birth to two
years)
are defined as
separate parameters
in the
model. Each of the survival schedules was modi-
fied to allow use of the birth-crisis and infant-mor-
tality probabilities.
Values of infant
mortality
from
20 to 40
percent
were
investigated. (Infanticide,
if
it occurs, is included in infant
mortality.)
Fertility.
An
age-specific "fertility
function"
based on Weiss
(1973:Figure 3)
is used. The
gen-
eral form of this curve
agrees
well with data
gath-
ered
by
Kunitz (1973)
on
Navajo
and
Hopi
women. Cultural influences, subsistence stress
Table 1. Founding Population Attributes.
Age at
Name Sex Mate Age Death
lAXIa M 2A1 20 32
2A1 F lAXI 18 35
3BX 1 M 4B1 22 35
4B 1 F 3BX1 20 40
5B2 M 1 39
6CX1 M 7C1 34 45
7C1 F 6CX1 32 50
8C2 M 2 22
9C2 F 12 50
10C2 F 9 34
aElements of name IAX1 are interpreted as 1
=
ID number; A
=
family by
birth or first marriage; X =
exogamous male; 1 =
first generation.
(Frisch 1978, 1990), and
pregnancy complications
are treated
separately
from "inherent"
congenital
fecundity
to allow for
independent
treatment of
these factors. This
change
invalidates the use of
"gross
birth rate" or similar mechanisms to scale
the
fertility
curve (Weiss 1975). To overcome this
problem,
it is assumed that a married woman in
her mid-twenties, if not inhibited
by
cultural
restrictions or
physiological stress, would con-
ceive within a
year.
Older and
younger
females
experience
a
diminishing probability
of
fertility.
The
age-specific fertility
and survival schedules
used in the reference case are shown in
Figure
3.
Characterizing
the
Founding Population
A
configuration
of three families (10 individuals:
six adults, four
children)
is used in all cases.
Individual attributes of the
founding population
are listed in Table 1. A
larger founding group
of
five families was simulated but did not show suf-
ficient differences in
vitality
from the
three-family
unit to warrant further discussion here.
Initial
gender
mix and
age
were at our discre-
tion, and
younger
married
couples
were selected.
Our rationale was that small
groups budding
off
from ancestral
populations
would contain a mix of
younger,
more
vigorous
adults. Children of
vary-
ing ages
were included and sex of the children was
established
randomly.
The children's
ages require
couple 6CX1/7C1, Table 1, to be older for consis-
tency. Age
at death of the
founding population
was
determined
using
the reference case survival
schedule and a random number table. The random
selection of life
span
for the
founding population
resulted in a
group
with
above-average
robustness.
688
[Vol. 62,
No.
4, 1997]
REPORTS
Average
life
span
of adults in the
founding popu-
lation is 39.7 and, for the children, 27
years.
Life
expectancy
derived from the reference case sur-
vival schedule is 21
years
at birth (30 percent
infant
mortality)
and is 14
years
at
age
20
(age 34).
For assessment of
sensitivity,
a less robust,
"Short-Life," alterative is
provided by reducing
the life
spans
of all the
founding
members
by
20
percent.
This
yields
an
average age
of death for the
founding
children of 21.6
years
and for the found-
ing
adults 31.6
years. Founding
attributes are fixed
for all runs within a case.
Characterizing
Cultural Rules
We relied
heavily
on
ethnographic
data to estab-
lish the cultural rules.
Quantification
is often
obscure in the literature (for a few
exceptions,
see
Gutierrez 1991; Levy 1992; Martin 1994; Parsons
1925). Although appropriateness
of
any
choice
can be
questioned,
a set of rational, consistent
rules was selected from available information.
Marriage
Rules. A
monogamous,
matrilocal
residence
pattern (common in some areas of the
Southwest) was selected for the reference case
cultural model. The exact
age
for a
particular
indi-
vidual to
marry
is chosen
randomly
from within
the
acceptable age range.4
It is assumed that
exog-
amous males are
always
available for first mar-
riages
but are not
necessarily
available for the
remarriage
of widows. The
remarriage
of widows
is constrained to ensure a reasonable, long-term
average
balance of males
entering
and
leaving
the
group.
If there are no
eligible widowers, remar-
riage may
be
postponed.
Two alternatives are considered:
allowing
100
percent
immediate
remarriage
and
polygyny
(Gutierrez 1991). Polygyny
is restricted: widows
must be at least 25
years old; there must be multi-
ple surviving
married
couples
in the
group; only
two wives are
permitted.
Birth
Spacing.
Birth
spacing
includes both bio-
logical
and cultural factors. For convenience, con-
ception delays, pregnancy term, and
postpartum
infertility
are
grouped
and the total
period
is
termed "birth
spacing."
The duration of
postpar-
tum
infertility
can
vary
with the condition of the
mother's health and lactation
pattern (Aberle
1931; Ellison 1990; Howell 1976; Population
Information
Program 1981). The default birth
spacing
is set at one
year following
a birth crisis,
40
z
30
0
i
20
CL
0
0
0 10 20 30 40
YEAR
50 60 70
Figure 4. Population profiles after 1,000 runs with the ref-
erence case conditions. Population profiles below 53
per-
cent terminate before 70 years. The data are
plotted at
five-year intervals; the connecting lines are for ease of
association and do not represent percentages between
intervals.
two
years
if the infant dies before the second
year,
and an
average
of 30 months if the child lives
longer
than two
years (Ward and Weiss 1976). A
24-month
spacing
is also
investigated.
Residency.
For
modeling purposes,
we assume
a widower
may
leave the
community
in two
years
if there is no
eligible
female to
marry.
A
locally
born male
reaching marriage age
leaves.
Departure
in either situation will be
delayed
if
there are no other adult males.
Results
A
computer
run can be envisioned as the demo-
graphic
record of a
single
"virtual site." However,
runs
vary greatly
because of the stochastic nature
of the model, and a
single
run is not useful in com-
paring
the
impact
of
changing parameter
values.
Monte Carlo
techniques
are used to
provide
rea-
sonably
stable results,5 and the outcome of each
case is a set of 1,000 statistically independent
computer
runs. The
process
is
nonstationary,
and
classical statistics are not an effective
representa-
tion. We use two
graphic
forms to
portray
the
results:
"population profiles"
and "consolidated
values."
Biological/Physiological
Factors
Since
population
size derives from a number of
random effects, there is not a
single
value for
pop-
ulation. Rather, there is a
probability
associate
with a
range
of
population
sizes
occurring,
as will
be seen in the
figures
that follow.
689
AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
Table 2. Comparison of Average Consolidated Values.
Ref. Rev-P Long-Life Long-Life West-5
Variable Case Case Case 10 Case Case
Initial pop. 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Livinga 8.8 23.4 23.6 15.9 30.9
Totalb 67.6 94.1 94.4 80.7 103.4
Births 46.2 69.5 69.0 57.2 77.8
Deaths 45.0 56.1 55.3 50.3 57.2
Immigrants
11.4 14.6 15.5 13.5 15.4
Emigrants
10.7 14.3 14.7 12.9 15.6
Life
Expc
13.8 20.7 19.7 16.8 27.7
Note: Row values are consolidated values divided by 1,000
(except
for Life
Exp).
aLiving
is the number of individuals resident at the end of 70
Tears
(average
consolidated
population).
Total is the
average number of individuals tracked/run, i.e.,
all individuals that had involvement with the
community.
CLife
Exp
is the life
expectancy (years)
at 20
years
for that
survival schedule.
Population
Distribution. The distribution of the
population
size
generated by 1,000 repetitions
of
the reference case is
plotted
in
Figure
4. These
curves, or
population profiles,6
can be
interpreted
as the fraction of the sites
reaching
or
exceeding
a
particular population
size. For
example,
the 1
per-
cent curve shows that 10 of the 1,000 runs had 31
or more individuals after 55
years.
These
profiles
provide
a
picture
of the
probability
of site
growth,
under these
particular
initial conditions and
para-
meter values.
The
hump
in the
profiles
at 10
years
is a result
of
using
the same robust
founding population
attributes for
every
run.
70 --
Long
Life
60 -
z
50
0
H
40
30
?20
-
10
0
Alternate Survival Schedules. The variation
between the five survival schedules is
depicted
in
Table 2 where
average
consolidated values are com-
pared
with the reference case. Consolidated value is
the sum of a
particular
variable from all 1,000 runs
a
particular year.
For
example,
consolidated
popu-
lation can be envisioned as
placing 1,000
autonomous sites on a "virtual"
landscape (10,000
individuals) and
returning
later to count noses.
There is a net decrease in
regional
consolidated
population
for the reference case of 12
percent,7
while all the other cases show a net
growth.
Figure
5 is
typical
of the shifts in the
popula-
tion
profiles
for the
Long-Life
and Rev-P cases.
The West-5 case shows a similar trend with
larger
population
levels.
Other Trends and
Impacts
on the
Reference
Case
The
impact
of the
founding population
with dif-
ferent survival schedules can be observed in Table
3 where consolidated
population growth
trends are
isolated for the last 40
years. Figure
6
graphically
presents
similar information for other
parameter
change cases, which
employ
the reference survival
schedule. These results lead to the
following
observations.
Founding Population Life Expectancy.
Reducing
life
expectancy
of the
founding popula-
tion
(Short-Life case) reduces initial
growth
and
further exacerbates
vitality.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
YEARS
Figure
5.
Comparison
of the 1
percent
and 50
percent population profiles
of the
Long-Life
survival schedule with the
reference case that shows the impact of a 20
percent improvement
in survival.
[Vol. 62,
No.
4, 1997]
690
REPORTS
Table 3. Net
Consolidated-Population Changes.
1-70 years 31-70 years
Case Increase
Change/yr Increase Change/yr
Reference case -12% -.17% -57% -1.42%
Long-Life 10 59% .84% -3% -.07%
Rev-P 134% 1.91% +56% +1.40%
Long-Life 136% 1.94% +55% +1.38%
West-5 209% 2.99% 119% +2.98%
Note: Increase =
percent change during
the
period,
relative to
the
founding population; Change/yr
= Increase divided by
the number of years in the period.
Founding Population
Gender Mix.
Only
female children in the
founding population pro-
vide more
vigorous growth initially but, again,
do
not reverse the downward trend in the later
years.
Infant Mortality. Reducing
infant
mortality
from 30 to 20
percent
in the reference case
pro-
vides better consolidated
population growth
but
does not reverse the
long-term
decline.
Marriage
Rules.
Permitting polygyny
improved
initial
growth
but did not reverse the
long-term
trend. One hundred
percent remarriage
by
widows of
marriageable age
reverses the
long-
term decline with the reference survival schedule.
While it is unrealistic to assume that
every
woman
is married 100
percent
of her
reproductive life, the
case
provides
a useful
upper
limit.
The
population
at different
profile
levels for
the above
parameters changes
is summarized in
Table 4.
Table 4.
Comparison
of Variations from Reference Case.
Case 1% Profile 10% Profile 50% Profile % Terma
Referenceb 39 22 6 47%
All
girlsc 41 27 12 31%
All
boysd 23 12 0 81%
Polygynye
47 32 13 35%
Remarriedf 57 41 23 8%
20%SLg 26 15 0 76%
20%IMh 49 32 13 31%
Long-Life' 63 43 23 13%
Note: All
figures are
population size at 70 years except the
last column. Reference case (default) conditions apply except
as noted.
a
Percent of runs
terminating before 70 years.
bReference case with default values.
c
Default with
only female children in founding population.
dDefault with
only male children in
founding population.
e
Default with constrained
polygyny.
f
Default with 100 percent remarriage.
g
Default with 20
percent shorter life span in
founding popu-
lation.
hDefault with 20 percent infant
mortality.
i
Long-Life survival schedule.
* 70 Year Population Change
0
1Q
30-70 Year
Population Change
0-
a. -.
0
IJ
0
0
u)
z
o-100
REF GIRLS POLYG
20%SL 20%IM REMAR
Figure 6. Short- and
long-term
differences in consolidated
population (see text for definition), with "% Net
Consolidated Population" (y axis) representing the
per-
centage change
in the consolidated population during the
period, relative to the founding population.
The solid bars
are based on the period
from
year
1 to 70 and the gray
bars are based on the period from year 31 to 70. "REF" =
reference case conditions; "20%SL" = case with 20 per-
cent shorter life span of
founding members; "GIRLS" =
case with all female children in
founding population;
"20% IM" = 20 percent infant mortality case; "POLYG" =
polygyny case; "REMAR" = 100 percent remarriage case.
Interpretation
and Discussion
In the introduction, we
targeted
three areas of
research, and this section focuses on
interpretation
of the simulation in
light
of those
objectives.
Biological/Physiological Impacts
As
anticipated,
survival schedules dominate the
long-term results, ranging
from robust, vital
popu-
lations to those that are
marginal
or
perhaps
mori-
bund. With its
shrinking
consolidated
population,
the reference case is in the latter
category.
While
the
interpretation
of this trend is
problematic,
our
view is that the decline indicates eventual site
abandonment or extinction of the
group.
The ref-
erence case is at or below a "survival
boundary."
The
boundary
is a function of several
parameters,
particularly
the
marriage
rules.
Keeping
other con-
ditions fixed, the
boundary
is
abrupt;
a 10
percent
improvement
in the survival schedule
(Long-Life
10 case) converts a 57
percent decay
in the last 40
years
to
essentially
a flat consolidated
population
trend, as seen in Table 3. (A 10
percent
difference
in skeletal classification is within the
accuracy
of
osteological methods.)
Mortality. Differences in the survival schedules
may
be more
physiological
than
biological-
691
AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
z
o -~> REFERENCE
-
LONG-LIFE
-
WEST-5 -a- LONG-LIFE10
<0
4.0 --
O
..-X"
3.0
.0
Z 10
0
0
z o.o
! i I I
,
I
r I ; ;I
D 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
YEAR
Figure 7. Consolidated-population trajectories for different survival schedules. Cases with 100 percent remarriage per-
mitted are solid lines; default marriage
rules are dashed lines. "Consolidated-Population
Ratio" (y axis) is consolidated
population divided by the founding population.
dependent
on environmental conditions and nutri-
tional stress (see Harrison and Waterlow 1990;
Pearson and Greenwell 1980; Waterlow 1988;
Wing
and Brown 1979). One can
posit
a small
shift in
mortality patterns (e.g.,
caused
by
envi-
ronmental conditions), which, together
with mar-
ginal mortality,
could contribute to the
precipitous
collapse
of sites.
Relating
these
implications
to a
broader
regional perspective,
the statistical nature
of human
physiological/biological
characteristics
will
produce
tremendous variations across a
region,
even
assuming
constant environmental and
cultural
parameters. Superimposing
a reasonable
mix of environmental conditions or micro-eco
zones, with the attendant effects on
mortality,
widens the variation further and creates the
poten-
tial for
significant
differences in
growth
between
sites. Some sites would decline, while other more
advantageously
located sites would
prosper.
Founding Population.
While the
founding pop-
ulation
may
be drawn from the
general population,
attributes can
vary greatly
from the
average.
This
was true in the reference case where a robust
founding group
was created. The first 30
years
of
site
occupancy
are
heavily
influenced
by
the
attributes of this initial
population (Figure 6, Table
3) and, indirectly,
the
marriage
rules. Because the
founding population
establishes the
early popula-
tion levels, its effects endure and influence much
of the 70
years
of the simulation. For
example,
the
fragile,
Short-Life case, which is more
typical
of a
region
with the reference case survival character-
istics, exhibits a
population
of little more than half
the size of the reference case at the "10
percent
profile" (Table 4). This is due
principally
to the
early population surge
from the robust
founding
group
of the reference case.
Survival schedules have minor effects
initially.
The five different survival schedules
explored
in
this
paper
exhibit
only
a 6
percent
difference in
consolidated
population
at 15
years.
The
impact
increases with time, and the
spread
becomes
sig-
nificant after 30
years (Table 3).
Infant Mortality
and Other
Influences.
All the
parameter changes
in cases
using
the reference
survival schedule, except
the 100
percent
remar-
riage case, show a
declining
consolidated
popula-
tion over the last 40
years (Figure 6).
While the
influences of these different variations are
impor-
tant, the
significance
is less than that of the bio-
logical
attributes of the
founding group,
the
survival schedules, and the
marriage
rules.
Impact of Cultural Rules
Any change
that
permits
earlier
remarriage
of wid-
ows increases the
potential
number of second
gen-
eration children, e.g., polygyny
or 100
percent
remarriage
would benefit women 2A1 and 4B 1
(Table 1).
Although
the life
expectancy
for West-5 is 40
692
[Vol. 62,
No. 4, 1997]
REPORTS
percent higher
than for
Long-Life (Table 2), a cor-
responding
difference in the number of births is
not observed for two reasons: not
enough
time has
elapsed
for inherent differences in
growth
rates to
be reflected in the size of the
reproductively
active
population,
and life
expectancies
for both sched-
ules are
beyond
the
peak reproductive years (at
that
point,
cultural influences become more
signif-
icant).
Combined variation of survival characteristics
and
marriage
rules
provides interesting insight
into these
small-population dynamics.
Consider
the
following
extreme
examples:
(a) Combined
impact
of 100
percent remarriage
and
Long-Life
survival schedule. The
compound
effect is a dramatic 75
percent greater population
growth
than with the survival schedule
change
alone. The increase stems from several
mutually
interacting
factors. The ratio of
years
married to
total
years
available for
reproduction ("marriage
index") ranges
from 65 to 75
percent
with the
default
marriage
rules.
Reproduction potential
remains. As the
marriage
index rises, the births
increase
by
50
percent,
and the number of males
entering
the
community
for
marriage
doubles.
(b) Combined
impact
of 100
percent
remar-
riage
and West-5 survival schedule. The
popula-
tion
growth
is more modest in this case. Since the
marriage
index is
already
in the
mid-eighties
with
the West-5 conditions, the
potential
is less when
the
marriage
constraint is removed.
In both
examples,
as the
growth potential
satu-
rates, the consolidated
populations converge
(Figure 7). In
general,
each set of customs (rules)
defines a different
spectrum
of
consolidated-pop-
ulation
trajectories.
For some sets (as with 100
percent remarriage),
the effects of
significantly
different survival schedules are
indistinguishable
as in
Figure
7. The
trajectories
become
asymptotic
to a
"fecundity boundary,"
and little difference in
short-term consolidated
population
can be
observed
(up
to about 50
years
for
Long-Life
and
West-5
trajectories).
The
fecundity boundary
is the antithesis of the
cases where the
population
size is sensitive to small
changes
in survival schedules, the survival bound-
ary.
These
divergent responses emphasize
the wide
variations that, with
relatively
small
changes
in
parameters,
can occur
during
the transient condi-
tions
characterizing
a small
start-up community.
12
) 10
uJ
U
- 4
Z
2
0
--50
---40 z
0
--30
--20 L
-10
-0
YEAR
Families Population
Run #630 f Run #33 --- Run #630 -- Run #33
Figure 8. Bar graph of the number of nuclear families
corresponding to the reference case
population trajecto-
ries for run #630 (largest population) and run #33 (site
with population on the 50 percent profile at 70
years). The
actual populations for the two sites are
graphed
as solid
lines. The two sites have the identical number of families
for the first 25
years.
The six individuals remaining
in run
#33 after 60 years are unmarried adults and children.
Immigration.
The
fragility
of small
populations
is ameliorated
by immigration.
Since males enter-
ing
to
marry
local women are offset
by
the exodus
of
locally
born males to
marry
outside the
group,
the ratio of
immigrants
to
emigrants
is critical.
Immediate, 100
percent remarriage
of widows in
the reference case resulted in
doubling
the male
immigrants
without a
corresponding
increase in
emigration.
The attendant increase in
population
is
a
large
factor in the beneficial
response
shown in
Figure
6 and Table 4 for 100
percent remarriage.
Marriage.
The matrilocal
marriage stipulation
is a
very
severe restriction, and adherence to a
monogamous, exogamous marriage pattern
is
doubtful in small
groups
under stress.
A deviation from
monogamous relationships
could take
many forms, and
polygyny
is one
option.
With the reference case conditions, polyg-
yny
has a
positive impact
on short-term survival
but the
long-term
trend continues to show a
nega-
tive
consolidated-population growth (Table 3).
Other variations of the
remarriage
rules that would
increase
fertility
are
possible.
Intrasite
marriage,
particularly
as the site
grows,
is a
possibility.
Relaxing
the restriction on local males
leaving
and
allowing
females to enter the
community
for mar-
riage
would minimize the dissolution of families
with
only surviving
male
offspring.
Members of
outside kin or ceremonial affiliated units could
693
AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
bolster the
group
in times of
population
decline.
Many
restrictions on
marriage
are
subjective,
and the
myriad
of
possibilities
leads to the conclu-
sion that, faced with
declining prospects,
a
group
would
logically opt
for alternatives.
Population-Nuclear Family
Correlation
The number of habitation rooms is sometimes
used as a
population
marker. To assess the
efficacy
of such a measurement, the number of nuclear
families (married couples
and children) was mon-
itored
during
the simulations. The results of two
specific
runs from the reference case are shown in
Figure
8. The number of nuclear families fluctu-
ates and often
appears out-of-phase
with
changes
in
population.
In
Figure 8, at 20
years,
a decrease in
popula-
tion is
accompanied by
an increase in the number
of nuclear families. Even run #630, which has a
consistent
population growth
over much of the 70
years,
has a
period
from 30 to 50
years
in which
the net number of families did not increase while
the
population grew
from 20 to 35 individuals.
Older families are
being
dissolved
during
this
period,
while new families in their
prime repro-
ductive
years
are
being
formed. The flat
period
is
followed
by
a
rapid
increase in the number of fam-
ilies as the female
offspring
mature and
marry.
While
family
size
averages
four to five individuals
over the
occupation period,
from the
perspective
of small-scale
episodes,
the formation of
family
groups
is not
proportional
to
population
size. The
substantial
swings
in the number of nuclear fami-
lies
suggest significant changes
in the
archaeolog-
ical record not related to
population
size.
Concluding
Remarks
This research has
accomplished
two
things: First,
it has underscored the
significant
role that simula-
tion can
play
in
examining
issues that are
beyond
the
capabilities
of
simple analysis. Second, it has
demonstrated, quantitatively,
the interaction of
mortality, marriage rules, and
founding popula-
tions on small-site
dynamics.
The initial
occupational stage
in small sites
(perhaps large
sites as well) is characterized
by
the
attributes of the
founding population,
while the
longer
term
trajectories
are influenced
by
the
underlying biological
factors. The
transitional,
ini-
tial
occupancy period
is difficult to
interpret and,
in small sites, this
may
be the duration of
occupa-
tion. Small
populations
are
very
sensitive to
para-
meter shifts, and there can be
significant
dissimilarities in
growth
related to small increases
in survival schedules and in variations of cultural
rules
(e.g., marriage rules). Trends can be
obscured
by idiosyncratic
behavior and, as
demonstrated, by
the random and stochastic ele-
ments in
population dynamics.
The
problem
is to
separate
the
orderly processes
from the back-
ground
"noise" in cultural
systems.
It is difficult for
any
excavation and
analysis
to
extract the actual characteristics of a
founding
population. However, an
appropriately structured,
microdemographic
simulation
provides
a
way
to
isolate
interdependent
causes and to
explore
the
potential impact
of the variation of
parameters.
Simulation does not
negate
the need for exca-
vation. The
quantification
of the model
parameters
depends
on
empirical
information. However, use
of simulation can avoid the
problem
of limited
experimental visibility.
While it
may
not be
possi-
ble to
predict
the
response
to a
specific situation,
simulation allows extraction of
statistically signif-
icant effects of a
range
of conditions that could
only
be
accomplished by
excavation of
many
tem-
porally
related sites.
We have
presented only
a small subset of the
possibilities,
but our
study
has
provided
a basis for
interpretations
that have been
previously only
qualitatively explored.
While
ecosystems
isolated
from each other (as
in the model)
do not exist in
the real world, these "virtual communities"
help
one to understand
underlying
causes of demo-
graphic
and cultural
change.
We are a
long way
from
creating
a theoretical structure that
speaks
to
the
complexity
of the
relationships affecting
small-population
survival in a
regional context,
but
clearly, biological/physiological
factors and
cultural constraints are
part
of the
pattern.
Acknowledgments.
We
gratefully acknowledge
our col-
leagues
for their
patience
and
mentoring. They generously
gave
of their time and
expertise
as we
explored
the intrica-
cies of this research focus. We would
express particular
appreciation
to George Cowgill,
John Martin, and Katherine
Spielmann
who suffered
through
earlier drafts of the
paper
and
provided
invaluable comments and direction.
Lynne
Goldstein and the reviewers offered
helpful suggestions,
and
we thank them for their assistance. However, we remain
solely responsible
for
any
errors or
fuzzy thinking.
Geraldina
Tercero kindly provided
the
Spanish
translation.
694 [Vol. 62,
No.
4, 1997]
REPORTS
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Notes
1. The LCM was
designed
to
operate
on a PC and to be eas-
ily adapted
as revisions or extensions became desirable. No
standard simulation
package
could be found that met func-
tionality and
flexibility needs, and the LCM was written in
Professional Basic. The
design
is modular
consisting
of 40-
plus procedures
in four modules. The
program requires
approximately
35 minutes/case on a 486/33 (8 MG RAM,
Win3.1), and four minutes on a Pentium/166 (32 MG RAM,
Win95).
2. The following
conditions terminate a run before 70
years:
* no
surviving adults; or
* no
surviving males; or
* no
surviving females; or
* no married couples
and the number of adults is less than
three.
3. Terminology:
"run" implies
a
single simulation; "case"
applies
to a
unique assembly
of initial conditions, parameter
values, and functions. In "Results," each case consists of
1,000 runs.
The terms "site," "region,"
and
"population"
are used
throughout
to relate the
concepts
to
physical reality.
These
are, of course, abstractions of the model and while it would
be more
precise
to
join
these with the modifier "virtual," this
has been omitted for
brevity.
In the context of this
paper,
"site" and
"region"
are synonymous
with "run" and "case"
(i.e., the virtual
landscape), respectively.
4.
Marriage
rules:
*
Age (female) at first
marriage:
16 to 22 (for discussion of
menarche, see Buikstra et al.
[1986];
Ralethford
[1990]).
696
[Vol. 62,
No.
4, 1997]
REPORTS
* Mate's age if from outside the group: 18 to 24.
* Age (female) at last remarriage: 38 (Hassan 1981).
* Age (locally born male) of emigration:
18-24.
* Age at last remarriage
of widower: 40 (Parsons 1925,
1936).
* The male is assumed to be older (a minimum of two years)
at first marriage (Gutierrez 1991).
5. The profiles are sample estimates; variations in magnitude
occur when a case is
repeated.
A
dispersion
on the order of 5
percent
or less has been observed between repeated 1,000
run cases.
6. The
percentages given on the population profile
charts
relate to the number of sites, not
population
size. The aver-
age site of the initial 1,000 sites (50 percent profile)
has a
population of only
six or less (470 have zero
population)
at
697
70 years; of the 530 sites still
existing,
the average popula-
tion is 16.6 individuals.
7. The
high failure under the conditions of the reference case
is in contrast with the site from which the survival schedule
was derived; i.e., Point of Pines. The causes are probably
related to differences in size of base population, to regional
relationships,
to diverse cultural behavior, and, quite possi-
bly, to the skeletal series not being representative of the true
mortality
at Point of Pines.
Received
July
19, 1995; accepted February 28, 1997; revised
March 20, 1997.