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Climate Change:

A Real Threat to
Middle East
Security
Background
• About FoEME
• FoEME study region- Egypt, Israel,
Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan,
southern Lebanon
• Climate Change impacts on water security
and regional stability.
Background
• The Middle East-a politically volatile region
• Israel/Egypt Peace Treaty but cold peace
• 1994 Jordan/Israel Peace Treaty including
agreement over the sharing of common water
resources
• Interim agreements with PA and Israel but water
sharing left to final status
• No Peace Treaty or water agreements with
Lebanon and Syria
Background
• Study region characterized by water scarcity:
most of the water sources are shared between
neighboring countries
Background
• Agriculture of key economic importance to
Egypt, PA and lesser extent Jordan
Population GDP $US Water resources Surface
(% Agric- (m2 /capita year Area (sq.
ulture) km.)

Egypt 74,032,884 15 % 859 1,001,450

Israel 6,923,600 1-2 % 276 22,070

Palestinian 3,626,000 9-25 % 52 6,020


Authority

Jordan 5,473,000 3-4% 179 88,780


Security Implications of Climate Change
• Fewer Water Resources Available for Existing
Agreements
– Israel/Jordan more difficult to comply with Jordan
River water sharing arrangement - 50 mcm/pa
– Jordan/Israel more difficult to comply with Yarmouk
River water sharing arrangements – 27 mcm/pa
– Israel still to provide Jordan with additional 50
mcm/pa – never fulfilled
– Israel/PA future needs recognized 70-80 mcm/pa. In
final agreement PA demands will be higher.
Security Implications of Climate Change
• Fewer Water Resources Available for Future Agreements
– Israel/Lebanon sharing of the Jordan River tributaries
– Israel/Syria sharing of the Jordan and sources of the
Sea of Galilee
Security Implications of Climate Change
• Less rainfall impacts the economy
– PA economy heavily dependent on rain fed
agriculture for income and employment
– Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food
production and rural support backbone of
Kingdom’s political stability
– Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across
political divide
Security Implications of Climate Change
• Sea Level Rise will impact the
Israel PA coastal aquifer
– Further increase salinity of
drinking water for Gaza
– Further contaminate
Israel’s coastal aquifer
Security Implications of Climate Change
• Sea Level Rise will heavily impact Egyptian economy
Socioeconomic Impacts
• Severe water shortages
• Agricultural losses
• Migration in search of resources
• Refugees from inundated lands
• Economic crisis
Political Ramifications
• Increased tension between countries sharing
water resources
• Difficulties for governments to provide for
their country’s needs-> internal instability,
likelihood of failed states
• Exacerbated marginal living conditions-
foster extremist and radical ideologies and
conflicts – General Anthony Zinni
• CNA report conclusion - Climate change- a
threat multiplier for human security

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