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Ipsos post debate poll

Ipsos post debate poll

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Published by CityNewsToronto
Ipsos released a poll on how the Ontario leaders performed immediately after their Tuesday night debate.
Ipsos released a poll on how the Ontario leaders performed immediately after their Tuesday night debate.

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Published by: CityNewsToronto on Jun 04, 2014
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved


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Election Debate Viewers Say Hudak Wins, Gets Knock Out

Punch While Horwath Imresses, Wynne !alters
Hudak Named as Leader with Best Policies & Ideas (36%, up 6 points), head
o! Horwath (3"%, up # points) and $%nne (&'%, down 3points)
Public "elease Date# $uesday, %une &
, '()*, ))#&( P+ ED$
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country’s leading provider of public
opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 3 research
professionals and support staff in Canada. !he company has the biggest net"ork of telephone
call centres in Canada, as "ell as the largest pre#recruited household and on#line panels. Ipsos
Reid’s Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed "ith seasoned
research consultants "ith e$tensive industry#specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of
research vehicles in Canada%including the Ipsos !rend Report, the leading source of public
opinion in the country%all of "hich provide clients "ith actionable and relevant information.
Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey#based market research group. !o learn
more, visit """.ipsos.ca
For copies of other news releases, please visit
© Ipsos Reid
$ashin(ton  New )ork  *hica(o  +inneapolis  ,eattle  ,an -rancisco
.ancou/er  0dmonton  *al(ar%  $innipe(  1oronto  2ttawa  +ontreal
Election Debate Viewers Say Hudak Wins, Gets Knock Out Punch
While Horwath Imresses, Wynne !alters
Hudak Named as Leader with Best Policies & Ideas (36%, up 6 points), head o!
Horwath (3"%, up # points) and $%nne (&'%, down 3points)
$oronto, O, - A flash poll of debate viewers in Ontario conducted on behalf of CTV News and CP24
iediatel! followin" the #eader$s %ebate has revealed that viewers believe PC #eader Ti &uda'
won the debate and landed the 'noc'out punch( &is success coes at the e)pense of Preier *athleen
+!nne who perfored below e)pectations( The poll also revealed that N%P #eader Andrea &orwath
ipresses but fails to earn a victor!(
A pre,debate surve! was conducted on %ebate %a! aon" 2-./0 Ontarians who intended to watch the
debate and vote on 1lection %a!2 the post,debate surve! was conducted aon" a "roup of 3-4/5
Ontario adults who actuall! viewed the televised debate and intend to vote on 1lection %a!(
The results show that nearl! four in ten 67/89 viewers thin' that PC #eader Ti &uda' won the
debate- up fro the 248 of viewers who thou"ht he would win the debate- showin" that he perfored
well above e)pectations( In contrast- :ust 248 believe #iberal Part! #eader and Preier *athleen
+!nne won the debate- down fro the 728 who thou"ht she would win the debate and fallin" short of
e)pectations( N%P #eader Andrea &orwath also e)ceeded e)pectations- with 2/8 believin" she won
the debate- up fro the 348 who thou"ht she would win( One in ten 63.89 viewers isn$t sure who won
the debate 6248 were unsure of who would win out the outset9(
Nearl! three in ten 62/89 viewers sa! that Ti &uda' had a 'noc',out punch ; an ar"uent or
oent that was the definin" oent of the debate ; copared with si"nificantl! fewer who believe
© Ipsos Reid
, 3 ,
$ashin(ton  New )ork  *hica(o  +inneapolis  ,eattle  ,an -rancisco
.ancou/er  0dmonton  *al(ar%  $innipe(  1oronto  2ttawa  +ontreal
the 'noc',out punch belon"ed to &orwath 63589 or +!nne 63289( Nearl! half 64489 of viewers-
thou"h- believe that no 'noc',out punch was delivered b! an! of the part! leaders(
+hile &uda' a! have won the debate- it was Andrea &orwath who ade the bi""est ipression on
viewers as 548 sa! the! have an iproved ipression of her as a result of the debate- while :ust 358
sa! their ipressions worsened- representin" a net score of <7=( >! coparison- in 2.33- &orwath$s
net ipact was <54- but it onl! provided a sli"ht bounce to the N%P$s popular support followin" the
?our in ten 64.89 have an iproved ipression of Ti &uda'- copared to one in three 67489 who
have a worsened ipression- representin" a net score of </( >ut the loser is Preier *athleen +!nne@
onl! 248 sa! their ipression of her iproved as a result of the debate- while 478 had a worsenin"
opinion of her- representin" a net score of ,3=(
Viewers were as'ed to rate the leaders on various leadership attributes( The data are copared to the
pre,poll e)pectations to "au"e the ipact that the debate had on viewers$ opinions of the leaders@
• ?our in ten 67/8- </9 believe that Ti &uda' o..ered the best ideas and olicies in the
debate- while &orwath 6738- <49 is in second position and +!nne trails 6208- ,79 in third(
?our percent 648- ,339 don$t 'now(
• ?our in ten 6748- < =9 believe that Ti &uda' sounded and acted the most like a Premier-
tied with *athleen +!nne 6748- ,59 but well ahead of Andrea &orwath 6228- <49( ?our
percent 658- ,/9 don$t 'now(
• Andrea &orwath 6478- <49 cae across as most likeable- while +!nne 62/8- ,29 and &uda'
6258- <59 were far behind( One in twent! 658- ,49 don$t 'now who the! li'ed ost(
© Ipsos Reid
, 2 ,
$ashin(ton  New )ork  *hica(o  +inneapolis  ,eattle  ,an -rancisco
.ancou/er  0dmonton  *al(ar%  $innipe(  1oronto  2ttawa  +ontreal
• Andrea &orwath wins 6548- </9 as the leader who is most /isually attracti/e- with Ti
&uda' 6348- <29 and *athleen +!nne 6328- unchan"ed9 trailin" in that departent( One in
ten 6348- ,09 don$t 'now(
#ast wee' an Ipsos poll revealed that rou"hl! one in ten 63789 Ontarians were li'el! to a'e their
ballot bo) decision based on the outcoe of Tuesda!$s debate( The post,debate data show that one in
ten 63789 viewers sa! the! chan"ed their ind about who the! were "oin" to vote for as a result of
what the! saw toni"ht- su""estin" that there could be soe shiftin" oentu in the da!s ahead(
In the post,debate poll of viewers- the econo! solidified its position as the priar! issue in the
capai"n 6728- <29 while other issues are of less iportance to Ontarians- includin"@ debtAdeficit
reduction 63.8- <29- "overnent accountabilit! 6=8- down 3 point9- healthcare 608- ,29- ta)es 608-
<39- social services 608- no chan"e9- ener"!Aelectricit! 608- <39- education 658- up 39- public transit
648- ,39- povert! 678- ,39- environent 628- no chan"e9- public services 638- ,39- crieA:ustice 638-
unchan"ed9- and soe other issue 6.8- ,39(
?ocusin" on specific issues- and who is best to lead on each- reveals that on an! topics Ti &uda'
and Andrea &orwath ade "ains while *athleen +!nne lost "round@
• Economy ; Ti &uda' 6708- <59- *athleen +!nne 6738- <79- Andrea &orwath 6238- <79-
don$t 'now 63.8- ,3.9(
• Healthcare ; Andrea &orwath 6748- <09- *athleen +!nne 6248- ,79- Ti &uda' 63=8- ,39-
don$t 'now 6238- ,49(
• Go/ernment 0ccountability ; Ti &uda' 6748- </9- Andrea &orwath 62=8- </9- *athleen
+!nne 63=8- unchan"ed9 and two in ten don$t 'now 6358- ,379(
• Debt1De.icit reduction ; Ti &uda' 6448- <09- Andrea &orwath 6238- <59- *athleen +!nne
62.8- ,79- don$t 'now 6358- ,3.9(
© Ipsos Reid
, 7 ,
$ashin(ton  New )ork  *hica(o  +inneapolis  ,eattle  ,an -rancisco
.ancou/er  0dmonton  *al(ar%  $innipe(  1oronto  2ttawa  +ontreal
• $a2es ; Ti &uda' 6708- <49- Andrea &orwath 6248- <79- *athleen +!nne 6248-
unchan"ed9- don$t 'now 6348- ,09(
• Social Ser/ices ; Andrea &orwath 67=8- <49- *athleen +!nne 6248- ,39- Ti &uda' 63=8-
<39- don$t 'now 6358- ,09(
• Education ; Andrea &orwath 67.8- <09- *athleen +!nne 62=8- ,59- Ti &uda' 6208- <09-
don$t 'now 6328- ,329(
• En/ironment ; Andrea &orwath 6778- <=9- *athleen +!nne 6238- ,79- Ti &uda' 6358-
unchan"ed9- don$t 'now 6738- ,/9(
On the issue that atters ost to the- personall!- one in three 67489 sa! that Ti &uda' did the best
:ob of addressin" that issue in toni"ht$s debate( This copares with one Buarter 62/89 who sa! that
*athleen +!nne did the best :ob addressin" their top concern- and sli"htl! fewer viewers 62789 who
sa! that Andrea &orwath did so( Two in ten 63089- thou"h- sa! that no leader did a "ood :ob
addressin" the issue that atters to the the ost(
Prior to the start of the debate- 7/8 of viewers believed that the +!nne "overnent has done a "ood
:ob and deserves re,election- while ost 6/489 thou"ht it was tie for another provincial part! to ta'e
over at Cueen$s Par'( At the conclusion of the debate- there was a sli"ht chan"e@ :ust one in three
67489 believe +!nne$s "overnent deserves re,election 6down 2 points9- while //8 desire chan"e
6up 2 points9(
!hese are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for C!( )e"s and C*+, on -une 3
+., from immediately before and after the !elevised /eaders debate. !he pre#debate survey "as
conducted among +,01 2ntarian adults3 the post#debate survey "as conducted among .,405
2ntarian adults. Respondents "ere selected via the Ipsos I#6ay 2nline *anel, Ipsos Reid's national
online panel. !he sample "as dra"n from a pre#recruited panel of ,,.5+ voters said they "ould vote
on 7lection 8ay and "atch the debate. Weighting "as then employed to balance demographics to
© Ipsos Reid
, 4 ,
$ashin(ton  New )ork  *hica(o  +inneapolis  ,eattle  ,an -rancisco
.ancou/er  0dmonton  *al(ar%  $innipe(  1oronto  2ttawa  +ontreal
ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data
and to provide results intended to appro$imate the sample universe. !he precision of Ipsos online
surveys are measured using a 9ayesian Credibility Interval. :or the pre#debate poll, the results are
accurate to "ithin ;'# +.5 percentage points, .< times out of +. :or the post#debate poll, the results
are accurate to "ithin ;'# +.4 percentage points, .< times out of +, of "hat the results "ould have
been had the entire population of adults in 2ntario "ho "atched the debate an intend to vote on
election day been polled. =ll sample surveys and polls may be sub>ect to other sources of error,
including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
!or more in.ormation on this news release, lease contact#
3ohn $ri(ht
,enior .ice President
Ipsos 4eid
Pu5lic !!airs
(6"6) 3&67&88&
!or .ull tabular results, lease /isit our website at """.ipsos.ca( ,ews "eleases are a/ailable at#
© Ipsos Reid
, 5 ,
$ashin(ton  New )ork  *hica(o  +inneapolis  ,eattle  ,an -rancisco
.ancou/er  0dmonton  *al(ar%  $innipe(  1oronto  2ttawa  +ontreal

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