ABSTRACT

Considerable research has been conducted on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation
facilities. Many crash prediction models have been developed using Poisson or Negative Binomial
(NB) distributions; however very few of them focused solely on hydroplaning events due their
complexity. Hydroplaning is a phenomenon that depends on many localized parameters such as
rainfall intensity, pavement cross slope and tire-pavement interaction. In this research, a
methodology has been developed to filter hydroplaning crashes from a Florida crash database from
2006 to 2011. Since this extracted set of hydroplaning events excludes the zero counts (i.e. no
crash rate events), a zero truncated NB model was used to account for the missing zeros. From
the database, invariant parameters such as pavement properties, roadway geometry, and posted
travel speed have been used to develop a hydroplaning crash prediction model. In addition, a set
of dynamic and derived parameters such as water film thickness on the pavement, driver behavior
and traveling speed were used to develop a second hydroplaning crash prediction model which
had showed significant improvements.
The model developed in this paper may have application such as predictions of crash rates when
comparing different design options, the estimation of the crash reduction due to infrastructure,
pavement improvements and to provide a warning system on high tech vehicles. Thus this research
may represent a point of reference for practioners to design a safer roads.

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