Russia and China: An Approaching Conflict?
Volume 34, Number 2, Summer 2009
other articles, Asia is replete with potential crises over land and resources,many of which could erupt into regional conflagration
.In the 1960s, when Chinese “Communists” dissolved their “fraternalrelations” with the USSR and resorted to the old ethnic rivalries, American journalist Harrison Salisbury wrote a prophetic book on geopolitics
TheComing War Between Russia & China
Salisbury’s predictions seem to havebeen proven wrong in recent years with the new Sino-Russian accord, yetdevelopments now indicate that his predictions are unfolding, and precisely atthe time he foretold they would – the 21
Century. Now another book,although not subscribing to the expectation of a war, is being published thatnonetheless shows the rising tensions. It is
Russia and China; Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics
, by diplomat BoboLo.
The present writer has long held that a Russo-Chinese accord would nothold, but rather there would be conflict with the possibility of war. I wrote in1983:
The split between Russia and China over Communist ideology is a merefaçade, and practically irrelevant. The real split is historically and raciallybased. We can trace the Russo-Chinese split back to 1229 when theMongol ‘Golden Horde’ of Genghis Khan invaded Russia. The Mongolsruled Russia for 250 years. Even as late as the 18
C. Mongols still ruledthe Lower Volga and the Crimea. This centuries- long Mongol rule hasresulted in an ingrained… fear of Eastern conquest.
Harrison Salisbury says that Russians don’t differentiate among Asians,considering the Mongol invaders of six centuries ago the same as thehundreds of millions of Chinese whom the Russian sees as poised to strikeagain. Hatred for the Chinese is ubiquitous among the Russians. The phrase
Appendix: I The Coming War in Asia..
Salisbury Harrison E., The Coming War Between Russia & China, Pan Books,London, 1969. Salisbury was assistant managing editor of The New York Times, and a veteran journalist in Russia and Asia. He was the first American journalist to visit Hanoiduring the Vietnam War.
Bobo Lo was second-in-charge at the Australian embassy in Moscow in the late 1990sand is now director of the China and Russia programs at London's Centre for EuropeanReform.
Bolton K. R., The Washington-Peking-Tokyo Axis: Threat to NZ’s Survival, RealistPublications, NZ, 1983.