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MS Sen Runoff Memo June 15th

MS Sen Runoff Memo June 15th

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Published by The Hill Newspaper
Survey conducted June 13 among likely GOP primary runoff voters, w/MOE of +/-3.3%.
Survey conducted June 13 among likely GOP primary runoff voters, w/MOE of +/-3.3%.

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Published by: The Hill Newspaper on Jun 16, 2014
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06/16/2014

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www.chismstrategies.com !

"#$%&'$"'(#


)*+ lnLeresLed ÞarLles
-.*/+ 8rad Chlsm
0123+ !une 13, 2014
43+ uS SenaLe MS CCÞ Þrlmary 8unoff

lrlday evenlng (!une 13
Lh
) we conducLed a sLaLewlde survey of llkely Mlsslsslppl CCÞ prlmary runoff
voLers$ We surveyed only voLers who parLlclpaLed ln Lhe !une 3rd CCÞ prlmary. 1he sample ls 821
households wlLh a MCL of +/-3.3°

5 4163 )** 78*93 2* 7188
5 :3;<=23> 6186?812;*@ *A 9?.B3C .39?829 9=*:9 2=3 .163 ;9 3993@2;188C 3B3@$ )=3 7*6=.1@ 831> *A #D ;9
:;2=;@ 2=3 /1.<;@ *A 3..*.$

EF93.B12;*@9
 Mlsslsslppl law allows anyone who didn’t voLe ln Lhe !une 3
rd
uemocraLlc Þrlmary Lo voLe ln Lhe CCÞ
Þrlmary runoff. Powever, Lhe Cochran plan Lo expand Lhe elecLoraLe wlLh uemocraLs ls a hard llfL—
Lhe mosL llkely uemocraLlc voLers are lnellglble Lo parLlclpaLe ln Lhe runoff.
 1he real quesLlon ls: !"# #%&& Cochran’s new “'%( )“ )*+",-./%, +*00.(* /1./ /1*-* %0 .2 *00*2/%.&
-"&* 3"- /1* 3*4*-.& ("5*-2+*2/ %2 /1* 6%00%00%77% *,"2"+8 .24 0",%*/8 %+7.,/ /9-2"9/:
! Wlll LradlLlonal “general elecLlon 8epubllcans” ln unlverslLy Lowns, Lhe shlpyards and
mlllLary base communlLles where Cochran underperformed ln Lhe prlmary adequaLely
respond Lo Lhls appeal?
! Wlll Lhe remlnders abouL Cochran’s longevlLy and power ln WashlngLon energlze Mcuanlel
supporLers even more?

E2=3. G*239+
1. 1hese surveys lnclude only landllne phones.
2. 1hese surveys have a Lhree-parL screen for parLlclpaLlon. We surveyed only phone households wlLh a
voLer parLlclpaLlng ln all Lhree of Lhe 2008, 2010 and 2012 CCÞ prlmarles. We asked each parLlclpanL lf
(s) he voLed ln Lhe recenL CCÞ Þrlmary. We asked each parLlclpanL lf (s) he planned Lo voLe ln Lhe runoff.
3. 1he sample ls 93° Caucaslan, 3° Afrlcan Amerlcan and 2° oLher eLhnlclLy. 1he raw survey daLa over
represenLs women and older voLers.
4. ulfferenL assumpLlons abouL gender and age mlx of Lhe !une 23
rd
LurnouL wlll alLer Lhese resulLs. 1he
candldaLe supporL LoLals noLed above are made from a welghLed sample LhaL assumes LurnouL aL 33°
women, 36° ages 63 and older, ages 18 Lo 64 aL 64°. 1hese are Lhe same assumpLlons as ln prevlous
surveys.
1had Cochran 48°
Chrls Mcuanlel 47°
undeclded 3°
H=;6= 61@>;>123 >* C*? I81@ 2*
9?II*.2 ;@ 2=3 J?@3 'K2= .?@*AAL
www.chismstrategies.com !"#$%&'$"'(#


The charts below are unweighted responses. We caution against drawing
sweeping conclusions from demographic groups with a small subsample
number. (Minority voters and all voters under age 45).
Unweighted Toplines


M# N.;/1.C O D MP Q2=@;6;2C O D
1 ?es 821 100° 1 Afrlcan Amerlcan 24 3°
R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D 2 Caucaslan or WhlLe 782 93°
3 CLher 13 2°
R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D
M' S*2;@< 4?@*AA O D
1 ueflnlLely voLlng 797 97°
2 Þrobably voLe 24 3° M! T?II*.2 O D
R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D 1 1had Cochran 392 48°
2 Chrls Mcuanlel 363 44°
3 undeclded 64 8°
M( R3@>3. O D R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D
1 Male 316 38°
2 lemale 303 62°
R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D 70 O D
001 169 21°
002 121 13°
MK 5<3 O D 003 264 32°
1 18 Lo 33 12 1° 004 267 33°
2 36 Lo 43 16 2° R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D
3 46 Lo 34 63 8°
4 33 Lo 64 140 17°
3 63 or older 390 72°
R.1@> )*218 &'# #""D
Cu
Whlch candldaLe do you plan Lo supporL ln
uld you voLe ln Lhe 8epubllcan Þrlmary
for uS SenaLe?
Wlll you be voLlng ln Lhe runoff?
Þlease Lell us your gender
Þlease Lell us your age range
Þlease Lell us your eLhnlclLy
www.chismstrategies.com !"#$%&'$"'(#
Unweighted Crosstabs


Whlch candldaLe do you plan Lo supporL ln Lhe !une
24Lh runoff?

D
M(
R3@>3.



M! T?II*.2 # U183 ' -3/183
R.1@>
)*218

1 1had Cochran 46° 49° 48°

2 Chrls Mcuanlel 48° 42° 44°

3 undeclded 6° 9° 8°

R.1@> )*218 #""D #""D #""D


Whlch candldaLe do you plan Lo supporL ln Lhe !une 24Lh runoff?
D MK 5<3


M! T?II*.2 # #& 2* (P
' (! 2*
KP ( K! 2* PK K PP 2* !K
P !P *.
*8>3.
R.1@>
)*218
1 1had Cochran 38° 36° 37° 30° 48° 48°
2 Chrls Mcuanlel 42° 44° 60° 44° 43° 44°
3 undeclded 0° 0° 3° 6° 9° 8°
R.1@> )*218 #""D #""D #""D #""D #""D #""D


Whlch candldaLe do you plan Lo supporL ln Lhe !une 24Lh runoff?

D 70



M! T?II*.2 ""# ""' ""( ""K
R.1@>
)*218

1 1had Cochran 47° 38° 36° 33° 48°

2 Chrls Mcuanlel 42° 33° 38° 37° 44°

3 undeclded 11° 7° 6° 8° 8°

R.1@> )*218 #""D #""D #""D #""D #""D





www.chismstrategies.com !"#$%&'$"'(#

HQVRW)VGR 5TTXUN)VEGT U183 -3/183
47° 33°
#& 2* KP 21° 9.9° 11.1°
K! 2* PK 20° 9.4° 10.6°
PP 2* !K 23° 10.8° 12.2°
!P *. *8>3. 36° 16.9° 19.1°
M( R3@>3. 5<37*8 S18?39
# U183 # U183 O # U183 D ' -3/183 ' -3/183 O' -3/183 D)*218 O )*218 D
#& 2* KP K! 2* PK PP 2* !K !P *. *8>3. #& 2* KP K! 2* PK PP 2* !K !P *. *8>3.
M! T?II*.2 O D O D O D O D O D O D O D O D
1 1had Cochran 7 38° 8 40° 23 46° 108 46° 146 46° 9 36° 13 33° 47 32° 173 49° 246 49° 392 48°
2 Chrl s Mcuanl el 3 42° 12 60° 24 48° 111 47° 132 48° 7 44° 26 60° 37 41° 143 40° 213 42° 363 44°
3 undecl ded 0° 0° 3 6° 13 6° 18 6° 0° 2 3° 6 7° 38 11° 46 9° 64 8°
R.1@> )*218 #' #""D '" #""D P" #""D '(K #""D (#! #""D #! #""D K( #""D %" #""D (P! #""D P"P #""D &'# #""D
MP R3@>3. 5<37*8 S18?39
# U183 # U183 O # U183 D ' -3/183 ' -3/183 O' -3/183 D)*218 O )*218 D
#& 2* KP K! 2* PK PP 2* !K !P *. *8>3. #& 2* KP K! 2* PK PP 2* !K !P *. *8>3.
M& 4?@*AA O D O D O D O D O D O D O D O D
1 1had Cochran 47.27 38.3° 30.87 40.0° 40.83 46.0° 64.11 46.2° 183.08 47.4° 31.40 36.3° 30.36 34.9° 32.26 32.2° 77.00 49.2° 211.02 48.3° 394.10 48.0°
2 Chrl s Mcuanl el 33.76 41.7° 46.30 60.0° 42.60 48.0° 63.89 47.4° 188.36 48.9° 39.98 43.8° 32.62 60.3° 41.14 41.1° 62.92 40.2° 196.66 43.2° 383.23 46.9°
3 undecl ded 0.00 0.0° 0.00 0.0° 3.33 6.0° 8.90 6.4° 14.23 3.7° 0.00 0.0° 4.03 4.7° 6.67 6.7° 16.72 10.7° 27.44 6.3° 41.67 3.1°
Whl ch candl daLe do you pl an Lo supporL l n Lhe !une 24Lh runoff? 8AW uA1A
Whl ch candl daLe do you pl an Lo supporL?: WLl CP1Lu 8LSuL1S
www.chismstrategies.com !"#$%&'$"'(#
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