Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 16 June 2014

Political and security risk updates


Africa: United States condemns Sudanese goernment attacks on ciilians!
Americas: "orld #up 2014 commences in Bra$il %it& no ma'or reported incidents
despite numerous protests!
Asia and Pacific: (alaysian coast guard &unts pirates follo%ing string of oil tanker
&i'ackings in Straits of (alacca!
Europe: )ttacks *et%een military forces and re*els intensify in Ukraine!
Middle East: +slamic State in +ra, and t&e -eant sei$es large parts of .inee&
proince and pus&es furt&er sout& to%ards Bag&dad!
Polar regions: (eeting of /ussian foreign minister and 0innis& president fuels
de*ate on .)1O mem*ers&ip!
)frica
United States condemns Sudanese goernment attacks on ciilians
On 12 June2 t&e United States condemned attacks *y t&e Sudanese goernment3s
forces on ciilians in Blue .ile and Sout& 4ordofan states t&at deli*erately targeted
sc&ools and &ospitals! 1&e US am*assador to t&e United .ations2 Samant&a Po%er2
gae a statement t&ree days after a coalition of 45 &umanitarian aid organisations
%rote to t&e U. Security #ouncil 6U.S#72 )frican Union 6)U7 and )ra* -eague 6)-7
demanding an end to ciilian targeting!
+n particular2 Po%er criticised attacks *y t&e Sudanese goernment3s /apid Support
0orces 6/S072 stating t&at surface and air attacks &ae increased since )pril2 and &ae
included t&e use of *arrel *om*s! 8oernment forces fig&ting re*els from t&e Sudan
People3s -i*eration (oement9.ort& 6SP-(9.7 &ae pressed a&ead %it& t&e
summer offensie aimed at ending t&e armed re*ellion! +ncreasing iolence &as
affected around 1!2 million people2 causing %idespread displacement2 and limiting
t&e access of aid organisation to re*el &eld areas of t&e country! 1&e coalition of aid
groups called upon t&e U.S#2 )U and )- to press for an end to Sudan3s current
military offensie and to launc& an independent inestigation into alleged &uman
rig&ts iolations *y Sudanese armed forces!

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1&e s&ort9run relief of t&is suffering %ill depend upon t&e a*ility of t&e international community to e:ert
political pressure upon t&e Sudanese goernment in order to facilitate t&e flo% of aid to affected regions!
;espite t&is possi*ility2 reports of looting and t&e destruction of food and %ater supplies suggest t&at
continued military operations are likely to generate a deficit in *asic infrastructure2 %orsening t&e
&umanitarian suffering in re*el &eld areas in t&e long run! 1&e Sudanese goernment %ill *e under
particular duress to maintain tig&ter control of its armed forces2 and to demonstrate to t&e international
community t&at any continued military operations are in compliance %it& international la% and
&umanitarian norms!
"ther deelopments
"n 1# $une% U& Secretary'(eneral )an *i'Moon warned that attacks against international and Malian
troops by insurgent groups in Mali are increasing and posing a greater threat to ciilians+ <is report
to t&e U. Security #ouncil on t&e (ultidimensional +ntegrated Sta*ilisation (ission in (ali 6(+.US()7
called for peacekeepers to counter t&e t&reat from remote areas *y e:panding furt&er into t&e country3s
olatile nort&! #urrently2 t&e U. operation is only at t&ree ,uarters of its mandated strengt& of 112200
troops and 12440 police officers2 and lacks t&e air coer and operational mo*ility necessary to e:pand
*eyond main population centres! On 11 June2 four U. peacekeepers %ere killed and ot&ers %ounded in a
suicide attack on t&eir *ase in )guel&ok2 nort&ern (ali2 as political negotiations %it& re*el groups
continue to stall!
A bombing on Tan,ania-s .ndian "cean island of /an,ibar killed one and in0ured seeral others on 1#
$une+ 1&e *om* e:ploded near a mos,ue in t&e ;ara'ani *usiness district of Stone 1o%n on t&e semi9
autonomous arc&ipelago at appro:imately 1=>15 U1#! ?an$i*ar is currently &osting a religious gat&ering of
(uslims from across @ast )frica! )ttacks targeting #&ristian leaders and c&urc&es in recent years &ae
significantly impacted t&e island3s tourism industry! 1an$anian President Jakaya 4ik%ete &as %arned t&at
religious tensions are t&reatening peace in t&e country2 %&ere many (uslims along t&e coast are feeling
marginalised *y t&e secular goernment!
The 1est Africa 2ommission on 3rugs 41A235 called for minor drug offences to be decriminalised+
1&e regional commission pu*lis&ed a report on 12 June listing drug production2 consumption and
trafficking as causing a pu*lic &ealt& crisis in t&e region and &indering deelopment goals! 1&e report
claims t&at current policies are fuelling illicit trade and corruption2 adding to insta*ility in countries suc& as
8uinea9Bissau! 0ormer .igerian president and c&airman of t&e commission2 Olusegun O*asan'o2 %arned of
"est )frica3s recent transformation from *eing a transit $one for drugs to *eing a significant $one of
consumption itself2 citing t&e lack of aaila*le treatment for addicts and t&e spread of disease as ma'or
corresponding risks!
"n the radar
The South Sudanese goernment and rebel leaders are e6pected to form a unity goernment
follo%ing t&e agreement of a 609day ultimatum on 10 June!
The 2oalition for 7eform and 3emocracy 42"735 to stage a number of anti'goernment
rallies across *enya up until = July!
Protests are set to continue in South Africa oer t&e lack of access to ade,uate sanitation in t&e
country3s poorest areas!
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)mericas
1orld 2up !819 commences in )ra,il with no ma0or reported incidents despite numerous protests
On 12 June2 t&e opening ceremony of t&e "orld #up 2014 %as staged in t&e #orint&ians )rena in SAo
Paulo2 Bra$il! +n t&e run9up to t&e eent2 many feared t&at t&e festiities %ould *e marred *y a %ae of
protests and pu*lic transport strikes! ) series of marc&es %ere organised in most of t&e 12 &ost cities of
t&e "orld #up2 including a pacifist rally in /io de Janeiro and a 249&our strike in t&e cityBs airportC &o%eer2
only minor incidents %ere reported! 1&e 0+0) "orld #up in Bra$il is set to *e t&e most e:pensie "orld
#up to date2 %it& estimated costs tripling *et%een 200= and 2014 to appro:imately D11 *illion! )s suc&2
large sections of t&e Bra$ilian population *eliee t&at t&e money spent in t&e organisation of t&e
tournament &as *een detrimental to t&e improement of pu*lic serices2 suc& as education and
&ealt&care! +n addition2 a num*er of %orker unions and ot&er social moements &ae soug&t to use t&e
"orld #upBs media coerage to promote t&eir o%n agendas!
1&e fate of Bra$ilBs President ;ilma /ousseff is contingent on t&e successful management of t&e "orld
#up! S&e %ill stand for re9election in Octo*er amid a s&arp decrease in &er support *ase after t&e 201E
summer protests against rising liing costs! 1&e latest poll on oting intentions s&o%ed t&at support for
t&e president &ad slipped to EFG in June from 40G in (ay! 1&e same poll s&o%ed &er main political rial2
)Hcio .ees2 &as e:perienced an increase from 20G to 2EG! 0urt&ermore2 under /ousseffBs predecessor2
-ui$ +nIcio -ula da Sila2 %&o came to po%er for t&e first time in 200E2 t&e country made great strides in
t&e alleiation of poerty2 lifting oer E5 million Bra$ilians out of poerty and increasing in t&e num*er of
students attending uniersity *y E!5 million! Since t&en2 t&e economy &as slo%ed in line %it& a *roader
deceleration in former &ig&9gro%t& countries suc& as #&ina2 +ndia and /ussia!
1&e dramatic cost of t&e "orld #up2 in con'unction %it& a num*er of corruption scandals surrounding t&e
a%arding of construction contracts2 &as damaged t&e pu*lic image of t&e current goernment2 despite
&ard campaigning *y t&e /ousseff administration to oercome t&e perception of a mismanagement of t&e
"orld #up and a neglect of funding for essential serices! )s suc&2 t&e impact of t&e "orld #up on
/ousseffBs approal rating %ill depend to a large e:tent on &er capacity to conince t&e population of t&e
*enefits of t&e tournament for t&e countryBs economy! 0urt&er strikes are e:pected across t&e country on
an almost daily *asis2 %it& a num*er of moements announcing t&at t&ey %ill stage pu*lic protests on 162
1=2 1J2 202 212 2E2 252 26 and E0 June and 5 and 12 July across arious cities! .eert&eless2 t&e possi*ility
of a muc&9feared replication of t&e summer 201E protests appears remote due to a muc& increased
military and police presence!
"ther deelopments
"n 19'1: $une% the (;; gathered in Santa 2ru, de la Sierra% )oliia% to celebrate the fiftieth
anniersary of its founding in 1<=9+ 1&e intergoernmental organisation2 %&ic& includes 1EE states from
t&e )mericas2 )frica and )sia and Oceania2 %as esta*lis&ed to promote t&e economic interests of
deeloping countries! 1&e summit %as inaugurated *y Boliian President @o (orales and U. Secretary9
8eneral Ban 4i9moon2 and %as centred on t&e 2015 U. millennium goals! 1&e goals contain eig&t
deelopment targets to tackle poerty t&at %ere esta*lis&ed at t&e U. (illennium Summit in 2000! +n
addition2 t&e 8== declared its support for an internal resolution to t&e current political crisis in Kene$uela2
and criticised t&e United States for LmeddlingB in t&e region!
Open Briefing | 9
A series of student protests were staged across seeral cities in 2hile on 18 $une+ Organised *y t&e
#onfederation of #&ilean Students 6#O.0@#<72 t&e marc&es attracted seeral t&ousand people2 most
nota*ly in t&e capital2 Santiago! Seeral clas&es %it& t&e security forces %ere reported! 1&e marc&es
represented t&e second round of student protests organised *y #O.0@#< since #&ilean President
(ic&elle Bac&elet took office promising t&e proision of *etter and free education funded *y a rise in
ta:es! 1&e student union criticises t&e president for not going far enoug& %it& &er proposed education
reforms2 %&ic& t&ey perceie as superficial! +n response2 Bac&elet &as tried to reassure t&e students t&at
more am*itious reforms are currently *eing arranged! Students demand t&e elimination of sc&ool fees2
t&e end of profit9making uniersities2 and a reduction in t&e &ig& cost of college education!
Tensions mount as Argentina criticises Uruguay for failing to comply with an .nternational 2ourt of
$ustice 4.2$5 ruling oer a pulp mill dispute+ On 1E June2 t&e )rgentine foreign minister2 <Hctor
1imerman2 t&reatened &is Uruguayan counterpart %it& an appeal to t&e +#J! )ccording to 1imerman2
Uruguay &as failed to comply %it& a 2010 +#J ruling t&at set a clear limit to t&e production capacity of its
pulp mill on t&e /Mo de la Plata2 a rier t&at is s&ared *y *ot& countries! +n 20062 t&e construction of t&e
pulp mill engendered a diplomatic and economic conflict *et%een countries t&at %as su*se,uently
resoled *y t&e 2010 +#J ruling t&at limited t&e factoryBs production capacity and esta*lis&ed a *ilateral
sureillance commission!
"n the radar
The heads of state of Me6ico% Peru% 2olombia and 2hile will meet in Me6ico on 1<'!8 $une at
t&e nint& summit of t&e Pacific )lliance!
US Supreme 2ourt will announce its capacity to rule upon the Argentine defaulted bonds
case this week+
>A72 e6pected to continue ceasefire until #8 $une% during #olom*iaBs presidential election
campaigns!
>ifth )7.2S summit to take place in >ortale,a% )ra,il% on 15 July!
>urther clashes between local residents and security forces are likely in 2ap?cuaro% Me6ico+
)sia and t&e Pacific
Malaysian coast guard hunts pirates following string of oil tanker hi0ackings in Straits of Malacca
) ma'or searc& for a group of pirates &as *een launc&ed follo%ing at least fie separate &i'ackings in t&e
Straits of (alacca in recent %eeks! 1&e searc& for a group of 10 mac&ete9%ielding pirates *egan on J June
follo%ing a raid on a 609metre long oil *arge off t&e coast of Bintulu in Sara%ak state2 (alaysian Borneo!
1&e pirates reportedly tied up t&e esselBs 22 cre% mem*ers2 sip&oned oer a million litres of oil2 and
ro**ed t&e s&ip of its communication e,uipment and ot&er alua*les! 1&e tanker is currently *eing &eld
*y aut&orities at -a*uan Port! 1&e (alaysian penal code states t&at acts of piracy2 classified as gang
ro**ery in (alaysia2 are su*'ect to 20 years in prison and %&ipping! 1&e (alaysian (aritime @nforcement
)gency 6t&e (alaysian coast guard7 is leading t&e inestigation!

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+n )pril 20142 pirates attacked a 1&ai diesel tanker off t&e coast of eastern (alaysia2 resulting in t&e in'ury
of t&e esselBs captain! +n t&e same mont&2 a Singaporean tanker %as raided in t&e Strait of (alacca2
resulting in t&e kidnap of t&ree +ndonesian cre% mem*ers and t&e t&eft of in e:cess of t&ree million litres
of diesel! )lt&oug& t&e fre,uency of attacks &as decreased in recent years as a result of increased patrols
and international anti9piracy cooperation2 attacks on oil tankers are still common in t&is region!
1&e Strait of (alacca &as &istorically *een a &ot*ed for piracy2 as it is a ital maritime s&ipping route
connecting @urope and t&e (iddle @ast %it& )sia! +t is t&e s&ortest transport route for suppliers in t&e
Persian 8ulf seeking to capitalise upon *ooming )sian energy demands! )ppro:imately 40G of all glo*al
trade utilises t&is naal transport route2 t&e ast ma'ority of %&ic& is attri*uta*le to petroleum! )mong
t&e t&ree countries t&at *order t&e Strait of (alacca2 Singapore &as traditionally faoured international
assistance in maritime security2 %&ile +ndonesia and (alaysia &ae resisted suc& assistance2 creating a
nota*le element of political tension! +n 20062 t&e +ndian .ay and #oast 8uard *egan participating in
antipiracy patrols in t&e region2 leading to a significant decrease in t&e num*er of attacksC &o%eer2 as
recent eents &ae illustrated2 piracy remains a significant concern in t&e Strait of (alacca!
"ther deelopments
The 2hinese Ministry of &ational 3efence released ideo footage of $apanese >'1:s tailing 2hinese
aircraft aboe the East 2hina Sea+ #&inese (inistry of .ational ;efence spokesman 8eng Nans&eng
accused t&e Japanese aircraft of illegally entering t&e #&inese @ast #&ina Sea )ir ;efence +dentification
?one! Japan does not recognise t&is $one2 %&ic& %as esta*lis&ed unilaterally *y #&ina! 1&e ideo
reportedly depicted Japanese aircraft carrying missiles2 and %as descri*ed *y Nans&eng as Lo*iously
proocatieB! On 24 (ay2 Japan alleged t&at #&inese aircrafts &ad approac&ed t&eir planes in a similar
manner! #&ina re*uffed t&ese claims2 arguing t&at Japan %as interfering %it& a Sino9/ussian 'oint naal
e:ercise! #&inese officials also reported t&at on 11 June an OP9E# sureillance aircraft and a NS911@B
intelligence aircraft conducted reconnaissance in #&inaBs )ir ;efence +dentification ?one!
Seeral hundred demonstrators gathered on 1! $une in the >ilipino capital% Manila% to protest against
2hinese territorial e6pansion+ Protestors2 consisting primarily of 0ilipino citi$ens and Kietnamese e:9
patriots2 gat&ered outside t&e #&inese consular office! @arlier t&is mont&2 #&ina engaged in Leart&9moingB
actiities on (a*ini /eef and else%&ere near t&e Spratly +slands! 1&ese actions %ere seen *y t&e
P&ilippines as reclamation of contested territory currently *eing reie%ed *y an international tri*unal!
#&ina &as refused to participate in any international mediation of territorial disputes! 1&ese protests in
(anila resonate %it& protests in Kietnam last mont&2 %&ic& turned iolent2 leading to t&e deat&s of at
least t%o #&inese citi$ens and significant property damage! )s #&ina continues to engage in %&at
neig&*ouring states ie% as reclamation of disputed territory2 t&e likeli&ood t&at domestic opposition in
t&e P&ilippines2 Kietnam and else%&ere %ill escalate to iolence continues to rise!

Open Briefing | =
A delegation from Thailand@s military 0unta began meetings with 2hinese military officials on 11
$une+ On 22 (ay2 1&ailandBs military sei$ed po%er from t&e P&eu 1&ai Party2 formerly led *y Prime
(inister Ningluck S&ina%atra! <istorically2 1&ailand &as proen to *e a relia*le ally of t&e United States!
.eert&eless2 US officials &ae e:pressed opposition to t&e military rule in 1&ailand! )t a meeting in
Nangon2 (yanmar2 1&ailandBs secretary of t&e foreign ministry met %it& US )ssistant Secretary of State for
@ast )sian and Pacific )ffairs! /epresentaties from /ussia2 .e% ?ealand2 )ustralia2 Japan2 +ndia2 Sout&
4orea and #&ina %ere also present at t&e meeting2 &eld to prepare for t&is yearBs @ast )sian Summit! -ast
%eek2 1&ai 8eneral Prayt& #&an9oc&a conened a meeting %it& a group of #&inese *usiness leaders!
KietnamBs am*assador &as also met %it& coup leaders and declared recognition of t&e 'untaBs rule! )s t&e
military seeks to strengt&en its domestic legitimacy2 &aing cancelled and delayed national elections for at
least 15 mont&s2 it is eidently no% attempting to deepen its regional and international legitimacy!
"n the radar
$apanese Prime Minister Shin,o Abe is e6pected to uneil a series of economic policy
proposals on or around 2= June!
>urther unrest is likely in the Mirpur area of 3haka% )angladesh% follo%ing recent clas&es
*et%een mem*ers of t&e Ju*o -eague and residents of 4als&i camp!
Taiwanese President Ma Aing'0eou will isit Panama and El Salador *eginning 2J June!
Malaysia@s defence minister will isit representaties of the military 0unta in Thailand this
week!
>ollowing a controersial isit to 2hina% the Sao Tome and Principe@s president will lead a
delegation to Taiwan+
@urope
Attacks between military forces and rebels intensify in Ukraine
On 1E June2 t&e Ukrainian goernment announced t&at t&eir forces &ad reclaimed (ariupol2 a port city in
t&e ;onetsk region2 after a si:9&our offensie t&at resulted in t&e deat&s of fie re*els! 0ig&ting
intensified on 14 June %it& t&e launc& of airstrikes *y t&e Ukrainian )ir 0orce against pro9/ussian
strong&olds2 %&ile ground forces conducted operations in -u&ansk! 1&e military retaliated after
separatists s&ot do%n an +lyus&in9=6 aircraft %it& +gla &and&eld surface9to9air missiles and a &eay cali*re
mac&ine gun during landing2 killing 4J personnel! Ukrainian President Petro Poros&enko called t&e attack
terrorism!
-ast %eek2 4ie gained t&e upper &and against t&e re*els in t&e anti9separatist offensie t&at %as
launc&ed in )pril! 1&e taking *ack of (ariupol is a significant ictory for t&e pro9@uropean Ukrainian
goernment2 as t&e city is located on ma'or roads t&at link UkraineBs sout&eastern *order %it& /ussia and
t&e countryBs ot&er regions! 1&e city is also important for its port2 from %&ic& Ukraine e:ports steel2 one of
t&e country most significant commodities! Ukrainian military also regained control of a 120 kilometre
stretc& of t&e *order *et%een /ussia and UkraineC &o%eer2 local media speculate t&at parts of t&e
remaining 22000 kilometre *order are still under t&e control of pro9/ussian separatists!

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/ussia *acked calls *y t&e Organisation for Security and #ooperation in @urope 6OS#@7 for an immediate
ceasefire and engaged dialogue *et%een t&e Ukrainian goernment and pro9/ussian separatists!
<o%eer2 t&e perception of a nota*le c&ange in t&e /ussian position to%ards t&e political crisis in Ukraine
%as nullified follo%ing a report from 4ie on 12 June suggesting t&at /ussian military e&icles2 including
t&ree tanks2 &ad crossed t&e *order into Ukraine! On 14 June2 .)1O released satellite images t&at appear
to corro*orate t&is assertion2 and it is likely t&at suc& instances %ill increase as 4ie *rings furt&er regions
of eastern Ukraine *ack under goernmental control! 8= countries %ill likely respond to any continued
/ussian complicity in separatist actiities *y imposing targeted sectorial sanctions upon /ussia2 as outlined
during t&e Brussels summit on 495 June!
"ther deelopments
A small homemade bomb e6ploded outside the offices of the ruling 3emocratic Party 4P35 in
>lorence% .taly% on 18 $une+ 1&e facade of t&e *uilding and %indo%s %ere damaged2 *ut t&ere %ere no
in'uries! -ocal aut&orities &ae reealed t&at t&e deice consisted of a plastic container containing t&ree
gas cans dipped in flamma*le li,uid! 1&e attack came days after t&e ictory of Prime (inister (atteo
/en$iBs ;emocratic Party at t&e @uropean elections2 %inning 40!FG of t&e ote! )s /en$i rose to po%er in
0e*ruary t&roug& a political arrangement rat&er t&an *y popular ote2 &is partyBs success in t&e @uropean
elections &as *een ie%ed as a alidation of /en$iBs leaders&ip! <o%eer2 t&is success &as *een
oers&ado%ed *y a series of recent corruption scandals!
"n < $une% a court in Moscow sentenced two men to life in prison for the murder of 7ussian
inestigatie 0ournalist% Anna Politkoskaya+ 1&e 'udge agreed to t&e prosecutorBs re,uest t&at /ustam
(ak&mudo *e gien a life sentence after *eing found guilty of s&ooting t&e 'ournalist in 2006!
(ak&mudoBs uncle -om9)li 8aitukaye %as also sentenced to life in prison for organising t&e killing!
)not&er t&ree men %ere gien sentences of up to 20 years in prison! Politkoskaya2 an outspoken critic of
t&e Putin administration2 %as s&ot in t&e eleator of &er (osco% apartment *lock! <er murder prooked
an international outcry oer t&e safety of 'ournalists in /ussia and t&e risks faced *y t&ose %&o criticise
t&e Putin goernment! #oncerns %ere also raised regarding t&e transparency and fairness of t&e /ussian
'ustice system2 after t&e suspects %ere ac,uitted in 200JC &o%eer2 t&e /ussian Supreme #ourt later
ordered a retrial!
"n < $une% )ulgarian Prime Minister Plamen "resharski announced that the goernment would
suspend work on South Stream pipeline for the foreseeable future! Ores&arski also announced t&at
t&e future construction %ould *e contingent on consultations %it& t&e @uropean #ommission! 1&e ne%s
came after a isit to Bulgaria *y t&ree US Senators> Jo&n (c#ain2 /on Jo&nson and #&ristop&er (urp&y!
;uring t&e isit2 (c#ain remarked t&at t&e United States %ould prefer less /ussian inolement in issues
concerning t&e Sout& Stream! 1&e /ussian gas company 8a$prom initiated t&e pro'ect in Octo*er 201E!
1&e pipelines %ere due to transport /ussian gas to Sout&ern and #entral @urope ia t&e Black Sea to
Bulgaria O t&us2 *ypassing t&e traditional pipelines in Ukraine!

Open Briefing | B
"n the radar
European Union agriculture ministers to meet with US agriculture ministers to discuss
e6panding trade opportunities+
>rench rail strike likely to continue this week+
>innish Prime Minister $yrki *atainen to step down on 1= $une+ )le:andrt Stu**2 t&e current
0innis& @urope minister2 is e:pected to succeed &im!
7ussia e6pected to cut the gas supply to the Ukraine this week+
Potential risk of opposition protests in A,erbai0an@s capital% )aku% on != $une% during )rmed
0orces ;ay!
(iddle @ast
.slamic State in .raC and the Deant sei,es large parts of &ineeh proince and pushes further south
towards )aghdad
(ilitants from t&e +slamic State in +ra, and t&e -eant 6+S+-72 also kno%n as t&e +slamic State in +ra, and
Syria 6+S+S72 captured (osul2 +ra,Bs second largest city2 on 10 June2 and *y 12 June &ad also sei$ed 1ikrit!
<eay fig&ting *et%een +S+- re*els and +ra,i troops also *roke out around t&e to%ns of Bai'i2 4irkuk and
Samarra2 'ust 6F miles nort& of Bag&dad! /e*els in (osul stormed t&e 1urkis& consulate and sei$ed 25
staff2 including t&e &ead of t&e countryBs diplomatic mission! 1&e +nternational Organisation for (igration
estimates t&at some 5002000 people &ae fled t&e city of (osul since t&e militant takeoer! +ra,i 4urdis&
Pes&merga fig&ters took control of military installations in t&e ma'or oil9producing city of 4irkuk follo%ing
t&e a*andonment of many of t&e facilities *y t&e central goernmentBs forces! +S+- no% control s%at&es of
nort&ern +ra,2 follo%ing adances in 0allu'a&2 /amadi2 parts of )n*ar proince and nort&ern Syria oer t&e
past year!
+S+- &ae controlled areas of )n*ar proince and t&e city of 0allu'a& since 0e*ruary t&is year! Under t&e
leaders&ip of )*u Bakr al9Bag&dadi2 t&e group &as esta*lis&ed itself as an ideological alternatie to al9
Paeda and &as *ecome increasingly transnational! Originally an +ra,i affiliate of al9Paeda2 t&e group &as
e:panded its operations into Syria as t&e ciil %ar %orsened and rial re*el factions *egan to fig&t among
t&emseles! +f t&e group is a*le to &old on to (osul and muc& of .inee& proince2 it %ill *e a*le to link up
%it& territory it controls in neig&*ouring )n*ar proince and Syria O moing funds2 %eapons and fig&ters
*et%een t&e arious *attlefronts! +S+- &ae e:ploited popular anti9S&ia goernment sentiment in t&e
nort& of t&e country to t&eir adantage2 and t&eir presence in Sunni areas %ill likely proide t&em %it&
furt&er opportunity for recruitment!
"idespread damage and ciilian casualties are &ig&ly likely if t&e +ra,i goernment responds to t&e sei$ure
of (osul in t&e same %ay as it &as in ot&er cities!! Bagdad2 in particular2 &as *een plagued *y a long9
running *om*ing campaign designed to polarise t&e Sunni and S&ia communities! S&ould +S+- manage to
launc& a more conentional attack on &ig& profile S&ia interests in t&e sout& of +ra,2 a retaliatory S&ia
uprising %ould *e &ig&ly likely! 1&e success of t&e operation %ill likely encourage adances else%&ere in
t&e country and em*olden ot&ers to carry out attacksC &o%eer2 is unlikely t&at +S+- currently &as t&e
capacity to gain and su*se,uently &old control of t&e oil9ric& 4urdis& region or Bag&dad!

Open Briefing | <
"ther deelopments
*arachi airport came under attack on 18 $une% less than two days after militants lay siege to the
facility+ 8unmen on motorcycles opened fire on Jinna& +nternational )irportBs security force academy
6)S072 t&oug& no casualties %ere reported! 0lig&ts in and out of t&e airport %ere su*se,uently grounded
follo%ing t&at attack! 1&e 1ali*an claimed responsi*ility for t&e earlier attack t&at left some E6 people
dead2 including 10 of t&e gunmen! 1&e attack %as carried out in reenge for drone strikes2 and seres to
&ig&lig&t t&e difficulties facing t&e Pakistani security forces! )ttacks on infrastructure in t&e s&ort term
are ery likely!
.n the week following the swearing in of former army chief Abdel >atah al'Sisi% the Egyptian military
took control of al'Arish port in the Sinai Peninsula on < $une+ #ontrol of t&e port %as transferred from
a ciilian9run agency to t&e military due to security concerns in Sinai2 %&ere militant actiities &ae
increased in recent years! 1&e decision underscores concerns t&at t&e country may once again *e
dominated *y a military presence in *ot& t&e economic and political sp&eres!
A car bomb in the Syrian city of Eoms killed at least seen people and in0ured !: others on 1! $une+
1&e *last occurred in t&e pro9goernment district of "adi ;a&a*! -ast mont&2 t&e Syrian goernment took
control of t&e central Syrian city as part of a negotiated eacuation and amnesty follo%ing t%o years of
re*el occupation! <o%eer2 anti9goernment re*els still &ae control of t&e surrounding areas2 %it& car
*om*s occasionally targeting goernment areas! 8oernment9controlled areas of ;amascus and <oms
also remain at risk of attack!
"n the radar
&ewly'elected Egyptian President Abdel >attah al'Sisi will isit Saudi Arabia this %eek to
t&ank t&e 4ingdom for its support!
Preliminary results from the second round run'off in Afghanistan@s presidential election will
indicate President Eamid *ar,ai@s successor on ! $uly+
1ashington is e6pected to announce its military stance on the adance of .S.D in .raC% %it&
t&e possi*ility of airstrikes on re*el targets!
19 $uly marks 7epublic 3ay in .raC+
Pro' and anti'goernment protests possible in Egypt on /eolution ;ay on 2E July!
Polar /egions
Meeting of 7ussian foreign minister and >innish president fuels debate on &AT" membership
0innis& President Sauli .iinistQ met /ussian 0oreign (inister Sergei -aro at t&e presidentBs summer
residence2 4ultaranta2 on 10 June! 1&e meeting focused firstly on t&e crisis in Ukraine2 %it& a frank
interc&ange of ie%s on &o% t&e security dilemma can *e resoled! +n a closely related discussion2 .iinistQ
and -aro de*ated t&e future of 0innis& and /ussian relations2 including t&e formerBs role as an ar*iter
*et%een t&e @U and /ussia and2 most crucially for security concerns on *ot& sides of t&e *order2 its
potential accession to .)1O! 1&e ,uestion of .)1O mem*ers&ip follo%s stark %arnings from (osco%
oer t&e likely political fallout from suc& a decision2 %it& one of /ussian President Kladimir PutinBs closet
aides2 Sergei (arko2 *randing 0inland L/ussop&o*icB and t&e call for .)1O mem*ers&ip as a step Lon t&e
road to "orld "ar +++B!
Open Briefing | 18
)rgua*ly2 /ussiaBs %ariness of a potential 0innis& accession to .)1O is %ell 'ustified! )s &as *een often
repeated in t&e /ussian press2 %ere 0inland to *ecome a mem*er of .)1O2 t&e allianceBs *orders %it&
/ussia %ould dou*le! 1&is %ould undou*tedly lead to /ussia positioning greater troop num*ers along its
%estern *orders2 furt&er increasing already tense relations not only %it& .)1O *ut also along a num*er of
related dimensions already fraug&t %it& suspicion and misunderstanding2 suc& as /ussian relations %it&
0inland2 t&e Baltic States and t&e @U! On t&e ot&er &and2 t&ere are t&ose in 0inland2 particularly %it&in its
military esta*lis&ment2 %&o argue t&at /ussiaBs allegedly legitimate concerns amount to not&ing more
t&an intimidation! )ccording to t&is ie%2 .)1O mem*ers&ip for 0inland is a necessary counter to /ussiaBs
increasingly *elligerent stance not only in Ukraine2 *ut also in t&e BalticC (osco% &as reopened a num*er
of military *ases close to t&e 0innis& *order2 and fle% numerous *om*ing simulations last year oer
0inland and S%eden! .)1O mem*ers&ip %ould afford 0inland protection under )rticle 5 of t&e
organisationBs c&arter2 %&ic& specifies t&at an attack on one alliance mem*er is an attack on all!
Bot& 0inland and S%eden are faced *y a security parado: in %&ic& increasing /ussian *elligerence makes
.)1O accession simultaneously more desira*le and more risky! S%eden2 %&ic& &as no s&ared *order %it&
/ussia2 far less economic interdependence2 a long &istory of close cooperation %it& .)1O2 and a &a%kis&
critic of /ussian policy in its foreign minister2 #arl Bildt2 seems more likely to opt for .)1O mem*ers&ip!
1&ere &as *een liely de*ate %it&in t&e S%edis& defence esta*lis&ment as to %&et&er to 'oin2 *ut many
analysts argue t&at a *id in .)1OBs upcoming Septem*er summit is unlikely2 as t&e e:istence of popular
support for .)1O mem*ers&ip among t&e %ider S%edis& population is &ig&ly ,uestiona*le! Suc& a lack of
popular support is een more pronounced in 0inland2 %&ere only one in fie support mem*ers&ip! 1&is
fact2 com*ined %it& t&e kno%ledge t&at /ussia &as far more economic and political leerage oer 0inland
t&an its ot&er .ordic neig&*ours2 e:plains t&e timid press release issued *y t&e presidentBs office after t&e
meeting %it& -aro2 %&ic& did not once mention .)1O! 1&is press release contrasts starkly %it& -aroBs
many interie%s %it& t&e /ussian press follo%ing t&e meeting2 in %&ic& &e claimed triump&antly to &ae
Lsecured 0inland from .)1O mem*ers&ipB! .eert&eless2 a significant portion of 0inlandBs defence
esta*lis&ment still supports mem*ers&ip2 a ie% s&ared *y )le:ander Stu**2 t&e man most likely to
*ecome 0inlandBs ne:t prime minister! )ssuming t&e initation remains open2 0innis& accession to .)1O
t&us remains a distant possi*ility!
"ther deelopments
The (reenpeace essel Esperan,a was used in a 1! $une protest in Flen in western &orway% %&ere
@::on(o*il is readying t&e "est )lp&a oil rig for a 'oint drilling pro'ect %it& /osneft in t&e 4ara Sea later
t&is summer! 1&e 8reenpeace protestors on *oard t&e s&ip &eld signs demanding @::on(o*il %it&dra%
from )rctic e:ploration! +n a simultaneous protest &eld at t&e Bislett Stadium in Oslo2 actiists unfurled a
large *anner %it& t&e message L.o )rctic OilB! @::on(o*il is a main sponsor of t&e Bislett 8ames2 an
annual international sporting eent &eld in t&e stadium! @::on(o*il &as seeral areas of e:ploration
interest in t&e /ussian )rctic! ) 2011 strategic cooperation agreement %it& /osneft opened up a 1252000
s,uare kilometre area in t&e 4ara Sea for 'oint e:ploration *et%een t&e energy ma'ors2 and @::on(o*il
also &as interests in t&e )rctic Sak&alin91 pro'ect!

Open Briefing | 11
>ire struck a Dukoil field near Usinsk% 7ussia% on 18 $une% the company@s second industrial accident in
the last month+ 0ire fig&ters succeeded in ,uickly putting out t&e *la$e! +n (ay2 t&ey struggled %it& a
more serious situation %&en four reseroirs %it& a total of 202000 tonnes of oil caug&t fire2 %it& t&e
operation taking more t&an t%o days to complete! Usinsk2 near t&e )rctic #ircle in /ussiaBs 4omi /epu*lic2
&as *een t&e site of numerous oil spills and fires in recent &istory2 most dramatically in a spill in 1JJ4 t&at
sa% as muc& as 2002000 tonnes of oil spill into t&e tundra!
7ussia@s newest strategic nuclear'powered submarine% Gladimir Monomakh% has begun sea trials in
the 1hite Sea+ 1&e Kladimir (onomak& is t&e t&ird su*marine to *e completed out of a total of eig&t
essels t&at are to *e completed *y 2020 in order to modernise t&e deliery of /ussiaBs nuclear deterrent!
1&e trials *egan on 11 June2 and are e:pected to last a*out t%o %eeks! +n July or )ugust2 t&e su*marine
%ill launc& t%o Bulaa intercontinental missles in a test launc&!
"n the radar
The "ur "cean conference will take place on 1='1; $une in 1ashington 32% United Sates+
)rctic enironmental and energy issues %ill *e &ig& up on t&e agenda in a conference *ringing
toget&er political2 *usiness2 enironmental and science leaders!

Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www+bradburys+co+uk

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Analysts: #&ris )**ott2 ;erek #rystal2 -aura <artmann2 1ancrRde 0euillade2 (att&e% #ouillard2 #laudia
"agner2 ;aniel 1aylor and Patrick Se%ell!