Wlnnlng Lhe Campalgn

!"#$%&" ($)*$+#,+,#
-"./01 2+3$4+5
Clvlc lnnovauon lncubaLor
!uly 7, 2014
I
inkubator
Anyone can become angry
" that is easy# but to be angry
with the right person at the
right time# and for the right
purpose and in the right way
" that is not within everyone's
power and that is not easy$

Aristotle " Nicomachean Ethics

Book II# &&'($a)*
A
c
t
i
v
i
s
t
s

V
i
d
e
o

I
n
d
e
x

Negative Campaigning

Introduction
Objectives
How it works
Your O+ense Plan
Your Defense Plan
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

a
d
s

The Wesleyan Media Project

N
e
g
a
t
i
v
i
t
y

Negative
Contrast
Positive
)''' )'',
)''-
)'&)
)'.
,'.
/'.
-'.
&''.
)'.
&(.
O
b
a
m
a

M
c
C
a
i
n

Primary
Election
June"November
/-.
/).
&-.
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
i
t
y

Obama 0' min

Hope
Change
Fear
Professor William Benoit# Ohio University
Negative Campaign Ads
A
d

T
y
p
e
s

Negative
Opponent
Weaknesses
Positive
You
Strengths
Benets Costs
W
h
o
l
e

S
t
o
r
y

Opponents
Positive
Campaign
Your
Negative
Campaign
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

A
d
s

Negative
Opponent
Weaknesses

Comparative
Attack
C
o
m
p
a
r
e

Negative
Opponent
Weaknesses

Compare
Contrast
Attack
You 1
Them "
All about
opponent
I
n
f
o
r
m

Debate
Character
Intellect
B
u
s
i
n
e
s
s

Negative
Opponent
Weaknesses

Compare
Contrast
Attack
Fear
Uncertainty
Doubt
S
h
o
c
k
v
e
r
t
i
s
i
n
g

Bacteria
are lurking
everywhere!
S
h
o
c
k
v
e
r
t
i
s
i
n
g

P
o
l
i
t
i
c
s

Negative
Opponent
Weaknesses

Compare
Contrast
Attack
Fear
(Anxiety)
Anger

Disgust
argumentum ad metum
T
h
e
m
e
s

!
!
!
"
Person Policy
P
a
s
t

F
u
t
u
r
e

Message
T
i
m
e

Compare and
contrast is good

Democracy
requires negativity
Accountability
Criticize problems
Better Options
Fully informed
What will happen

Costs
Consequences
Full Story

Willing to pay price?

T
h
e
m
e
s

Person Policy
P
a
s
t

F
u
t
u
r
e

Message
T
i
m
e

But tell the

T
h
e
m
e
s

Person Policy
P
a
s
t

F
u
t
u
r
e

Message
T
i
m
e

What happened

Accomplishments
Failures

Opponent Failed
T
h
e
m
e
s

Person Policy
P
a
s
t

F
u
t
u
r
e

Message
T
i
m
e

Credibility

Unt
Not Capable

Opponent Will Fail

T
h
e
m
e
s

Person Policy
P
a
s
t

F
u
t
u
r
e

Message
T
i
m
e

Character

Morals
Trust

Oooops
T
h
e
m
e
s

Person Policy
P
a
s
t

F
u
t
u
r
e

Message
T
i
m
e

W
a
r
n
i
n
g

argumentum ad hominem
is not valid debate tactic
When the
debate is lost,
slander
becomes the
tool of the loser.
- Socrates
W
i
n
n
i
n
g

"
2'.
of voters
1&
W
i
n
n
i
n
g

#
2'.
of votes
1&
Critical bit
Total
Voters
Total
Votes
&'. might not vote
0'. already decided
)'. persuadable
,'. will not vote
O
b
j
e
c
t
i
v
e

Independent
Undecided
)

P
a
r
t
y

Democrat
Republican
Mobilize
your
supporters
Suppress
their
supporters
Independent
Undecided
)

P
a
r
t
y

Democrat
Republican
Suppress
the middle
Center
M
u
l
t
i

P
a
r
t
y

Progressive
Conservative
Conservative
Party
Liberal
Party
New
Democrat
Party
Undecided
Center
M
u
l
t
i

P
a
r
t
y

Progressive
Conservative
Undecided
Party 0
Party )
Party &
Party ,
S
w
i
n
g

S
t
a
t
e
s

-''#''' independent voters

in &) swing states
O
p
i
n
i
o
n

I do not agree w
ith
voter suppression
because I see it as a m
anipulative
strategy to prevent people from

exercising their dem
ocratic
rights and obligations#
How i
C
a
v
e
m
a
n

P
o
l
i
t
i
c
s

negauve 8las = Survlval

L
o
s
s

A
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

ls everyone dolng Lhelr parL?

L
o
s
s

A
v
e
r
s
i
o
n

The pain of loss

is almost twice as
strong as the reward
felt from a gain
P
l
e
a
s
u
r
e

P
a
i
n

Loss
Gain
Small
Pleasure
Big
Pain
Counter$balanced by
Optimism bias
Conrmation bias
Negativity bias
In"group bias
Gamblers fallacy
Observational selection bias
Status"quo bias
Bandwagon e+ect
Projection bias
Current moment bias
Anchoring e+ect
C
o
g
n
i
t
i
v
e

B
i
a
s
e
s

D
e
f
e
n
s
e

S
y
s
t
e
m

l
o
r
c
e

e
l
d

Fear
Anger
Humor Positive
Promise
Hope
P
r
o
c
e
s
s

lear
Anger
ulsgusL
!"#$
Emotion
Reason
Adoration
Attraction
Affection
Fondness
Compassion
Passion
Caring
Liking
Longing
Tenderness
61&" 718 9$3,"::
;,#"4 <"$4
Pleasure
Enthusiasm
Happiness
Satisfaction
Eagerness
Cheerfulness
Optimism
Contentment
Relief
Pride
Zest
Grief
Sorrow
Misery
Disappointment
Hopelessness
Depression
Despair
Unhappiness
Loneliness
Shame
Regret
Remorse
Frustration
Irritation
Exasperation
Resentment
Torment
Rage
Disgust
Agitation
Envy
Jealousy
Bitterness
Hate
Anxiety
Worry
Distress
Horror
Dread
Shock
Terror
Fright
Panic
Hysteria
Apprehension
E
m
o
t
i
o
n
s

F

A

D

Flight Fight Avoid

F
e
a
r

Flight

Fear is a response to a
stimulus perceived as a threat
either now or in future$

Rapid decisions
Black or white thinking
Herd mentality
A
n
g
e
r

Fight

Anger is a response related to

psychological interpretation
of having been threatened$

Powerful tool
Catalyst for action
Optimism 1 control
Respected response
D
i
s
g
u
s
t

Avoid

Disgust is a feeling of
revulsion to the unhealthy$

Risk minimization
Preventative response
Withdraw 1 avoid
Long tem imprint

Contempt 3 Anger 1 Disgust

D
i
s
g
u
s
t
i
n
g
?

Mylie Cyrus
D
i
s
g
u
s
t
i
n
g
?

Good role model

for our daughters?
D
i
s
g
u
s
t

1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
u
l
s
g
u
s
L

S
e
n
s
l
u
v
l
L
y

Conservauves are more easlly
dlsgusLed Lhan Llberals
Inbar, Pizarro, Iyer & Haidt (2012) Disgust sensitivity, political conservatism and voting
n = 29,623 ln uSA
Neuroscientist
Paul D$ MacLean# &(/'s
T
h
e

B
r
a
i
n

0
=> ?"*%.+$,
lLA8
llghL or lllghL

@> 6+)A+B
Lmouons + values
amygdala hl[acklng

C> !"1B14D"E
8auonal 1houghL
)
&
System )
D
u
a
l

P
r
o
c
e
s
s

Fast and easy

Slow and di4cult
System &
D
u
a
l

P
r
o
c
e
s
s

&-(' William James Associative True Reason

&(-/ Petty & Cacioppo Peripheral Central
&((/ Steven Sloman Associative Rule Based
)''' Stanovich & West System & System )
)''0 Daniel Kahneman Intuitive Reasoning
)'', Strack & Deutch Impulsive Reective
)'&& Daniel Kahneman Fast Slow
F
a
s
t

o
r

S
l
o
w

F
a
s
t

o
r

S
l
o
w

Cumulative Resources
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e

V
a
l
u
e

C
r
e
a
t
e
d

-'.
(-.
X
)X
Fast
System &
Slow
System )
F
a
s
t

A
N
D

S
l
o
w

Slow You
System )
Fast You
System &
G
o
a
l
s

Negative ads that

work arent negative$

They are hard"hitting
issue ads about our
opponents record of
shame!

Alex Castellanos
Republican strategist
A
l
l

P
o
s
i
t
i
v
e

)'',
No Negative Campaign

It doesnt pay to
be a Boy scout$
P
r
o
c
e
s
s

E
+
o
r
t

&

E
x
p
e
n
s
e

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

Election
Campaign
Positive Campaign
Educate

Negative
Feel
Negative
Positive
P
r
o
c
e
s
s

Duration
E
+
o
r
t

&

E
x
p
e
n
s
e

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

Election
Campaign
Prepare
Negative
Prepared
P
r
e
c
o
n
d
i
t
i
o
n

r
e
p
o
r
t
e
r
s

E
d
u
c
a
t
e

v
o
t
e
r
s

P
r
e
p
a
r
a
t
i
o
n

Its not the will to win that matters

" everyone has that$
Its the will to prepare to win that matter$
" Paul Bear Bryant
R
e
s
e
a
r
c
h

trengths eaknesses
pportunities hreats
I
n
t
e
r
n
a
l

E
x
t
e
r
n
a
l

S
t
a
r
t

T
i
m
e

E"Day
C"start
?
?
?
When to start?
" The sooner the better# but $
Resources
Broke
T
o
o
e
a
rly
?

T
o
o
la
te
?

A
d

B
u
d
g
e
t

The Wesleyan Media Project

u
a
l
l
y

n
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

A
d
s

8
e
p
u
b
l
l
c
a
n

u
e
m
o
c
r
a
L

3
,
0
0
0

3
,
0
0
0

-140
-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
uays Lo Llecuon
2008 ually uemocrauc and 8epubllcan Ads
L
l
e
c
u
o
n

u
a
y

N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

T
i
m
i
n
g

Duration
A
S

.

o
f

t
o
t
a
l

a
d
s

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

&''.
2'.
Scenario B
Scenario C
Negative Campaign Expenses
Scenario A
T
a
r
g
e
t
s

Media
Voters
Opponent
Put opponent on defensive
Inuence them to investigate
" get earned media
Inuence
suppress the undecided
force voters to reassess
mobilize your support base$
I
n

u
e
n
c
e

R
i
p
p
l
e
s

David Armano
1
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
x
3
4
4
2
4
You
0
rd
Party
You cant make the
campaign about something
people dont want the
campaign to be about$
Independent
Undecided
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

Progressive
Conservative
Motivate and
Mobilize your core
Demotivate and
Suppress their core
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

Progressive
Conservative
Motivate and
Mobilize your core
Anger
Fight
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

Progressive
Conservative
Demotivate and
Suppress their core
Fear
Flight
Independent
Undecided
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

Progressive
Conservative
Suppress
the middle
P
o
s
i
t
i
v
e

Optimism
Happiness
)'&/: Obama's America

)'&) documentary by
conservative author |
and commentator
Dinesh D'Souza$

July &0# )'&) (limited)

August ),# )'&) (wide

Run Time -( minutes

Budget5)$2 million
N
e
g
a
t
i
v
e

v
)
$
'

V
a
l
i
d
a
t
e

Test before you attack!

K
n
o
w


O
p
p
o
n
e
n
t

If you know your enemies and know yourself#

you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles$
Sun Tzu# The Art of War
H
o
n
e
s
t
y

i
n

A
d
s

eople wanL ads LhaL are:

More abouL lssues Lhan LralLs
lssues LhaL relaLe Lo governlng
8e more speclc Lhan vague
rove lL Lhrough documenLauon

&$'()*$ (+, (-$ ."-$ (/"01
-$(2 3,,0$, 14(5 (-$ #",3)*$ (+,
!ohn C. Creer, ln uefense of negauvlLy
T
o
p
i
c
s

Attack your opponent where you are strongest

" make opponent part of your story

&$ About the public record and issues

)$ What the costs of their policies will be
&$ Past policies
)$ Future Policies
0$ Qualications of your opponent
&$ Experience: Have they been in o4ce before?
)$ Traits: Do they ip"op?
0$ Out of touch?
T
o
p
i
c
s

&$ Be Fair: Make sure you throw clean mud!

Factual and documented
)$ Us substantive arguments
0$ Say something positive about your opponent
then disagree
,$ Use negative ads judiciously
Strategically timed
Use in moderation at proper intervals

2$ Graphic and audio design 3 emotion

P
l
a
y
b
o
o
k
s

Karl Rove Saul Alinsky

R
i
g
h
t

"

K
a
r
l

R
o
v
e

Rovian Counter"thrust
Take away your opponents
competitive advantage
1he 8ovlan laybook: Campalgn 1acucs

1acuc 1: 1ake Lhe oenslve
1acuc 2: Auack your opponenL's sLrengLhs
1acuc 3: Accuse your opponenL of whaL Lhey wlll accuse you of
1acuc 4: Co negauve, Lhen cry foul
1acuc 3: 1he 8lg Lle"
1acuc 6: Appeal Lo moral values
1acuc 7 Sell Lhe 8ush persona
1acuc 8: Sell an adolescenL worldvlew
1acuc 9: LxplolL Lhe medla
1acuc 10: CreaLe sLraw lssues
1acuc 11: Lmploy surrogaLes
1acuc 12: use emouonal appeals
1acuc 13: 8ely on experL Lesumonlals
1acuc 14: 8heLorlcal devlces
1acuc 13: use of language
Saul Alinsky Rules for Radicals

&$ Power is not only what you have

but what the enemy thinks you have$
)$ Never go outside the experience of your people$
0$ Go outside the experience of the enemy$
,$ Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules$
2$ Ridicule is mans most potent weapon$
/$ A good tactic is one that your people enjoy$
*$ A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag$
-$ Keep the pressure on$
($ The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself$
&'$ If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through$
&&$ The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative$
&)$ Pick the target# freeze it# personalize it# and polarize it$
L
e
6

"

S
a
u
l

A
l
i
n
s
k
y

P
l
a
y
b
o
o
k
s

Obama teaching the Alinsky Model

B
e

R
e
a
d
y

Duration
E
+
o
r
t

&

E
x
p
e
n
s
e

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

Election
Campaign
Prepare
Negative
Prepared
By failing to prepare#
you are preparing to fail$
Benjamin Franklin
S
t
a
y

o
n

C
o
u
r
s
e

O
p
p
o
n
e
n
t
s
t
o
r
y

Y
o
u
r

s
t
o
r
y

E
l
e
c
t
i
o
n

P
u
ll o
+
s
t
o
r
y

S
t
a
y

o
n

s
t
o
r
y

D
e
f
e
n
s
e

Stay on
Message
Counter attack
Add to your story
Ignore
Frivolous
Strong Rebuttal
On Core Issues
D
e
f
e
n
s
e

Admit
Deny
Deect
Stonewall
lormal fallacles
roposluonal fallacles
Cuanucauon fallacles
lormal sylloglsuc fallacles

8ed herrlng fallacles
assoclauon fallacy
appeal Lo emouon
argumenLum ad homlnum
argumenLum ad populum
argumenLum ad baculum
argumenLum ad consequenuam
lnformal fallacles
false aurlbuuon
lf-by-whlskey
moral hlgh ground
morallsuc fallacy
movlng Lhe goalposLs
onus probandl
peuuo prlnclpll
argumenLum ad nauseam
argumenLum ad Lemperanuam
argumenLum e sllenuo
cum hoc ergo propLer hoc
clrculus ln demonsLrando
L
o
g
i
c

F
a
l
l
a
c
i
e
s

O
u
t

o
f

T
o
u
c
h
?

Be the
People
B
e

P
o
s
i
t
i
v
e

Stay
Humble
B
e

P
o
s
i
t
i
v
e

Our strength does not come

from what we ght against
but from what we ght for$
C
o
n
t
a
c
t

Zel[ko Zldarlc
Clvlc lnnovauon lncubaLor

zzldarlc[gmall.com