Avo|d|ng the M|dd|e-Income 1rap

20S0 Growth Scenar|os

Asia Will Account for 70% of Worlds
Added Cap|ta| Stock between 2030-20S0
Asias march to prosperity will
be led by 7 economles, 2
already developed and 6 fasL
growlng mlddle lncome
converglng economles.
8eLween 2010 and 2030, Lhese
7 economles would accounL for
nearly 90 of LoLal Cu growLh
ln Asla more Lhan half of global
Cu growLh.
Lng|nes of the As|an Century are the As|a-7 econom|es
As|a w||| account for SS of g|oba| output |n 20S0
Avo|d|ng & Avert|ng 1raps
Large and lncreaslng lnequlLles wlLhln counLrles could undermlne
soclal coheslon and pollLlcal sLablllLy.
lndlvldual counLrles rlsk falllng lnLo Mlddle lncome 1rap due Lo a
hosL of domesLlc economlc, soclal and pollLlcal challenges.
Intense compet|t|on for f|n|te natura| resources (energy, water and
fert||e |and) un|eashed by th|s growth, as the new|y aff|uent
As|ans asp|re to h|gher standards of ||v|ng.
8lslng dlsparlLles across counLrles and sub-reglons could desLablllze
Lhe reglon and halL lLs growLh momenLum.
C||mate Destab|||zat|on w|th |ncreased natura| d|saster), as we|| as
assoc|ated water shortages, cou|d threaten agr|cu|tura|
product|on, coasta| popu|at|ons and ma[or urban areas.
AlmosL all counLrles face Lhe overarchlng challenge of governance
and lnsLlLuLlonal capaclLy.
Cutcome fraught w|th mu|t|p|e r|sks & cha||enges
Asias urban population will double by 2050
This youth bulge wraps itself around the center of the globe,
with nearly 90 % of todays young people growing up in developing
countr|es where barr|ers to opportun|ty rema|n h|gh.
The worlds current youth cohort 1.2 b||||on young
peop|e ages 1S to 2S |s the |argest |n human h|story
G1
As|a w||| |ead g|oba| energy demand
And energy-re|ated
CC2 em|ss|ons
ro[ect|on As|a Lnergy Supp|y & Demand
Get used to r|d|ng
erfect Storms
our Iuture 8us|ness as Usua|
k|d|ng perfect storms for peop|e, prof|t & p|anet
k|d|ng perfect storms for equ|ty, eco|ogy & econom|cs
Why success a|ways starts w|th fa||ure
k|d|ng the erfect Storm meets Cn|y the arano|d Surv|ve
Gett|ng to es!! k|d|ng the erfect Storm w|th tr|p|e strength
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Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate
08.02.2012 23
Source: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB
Indonesia India Brazil
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20 million
Ecosystem services
dependency
Ecosystem services
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% of classical GDP
Ecosystem services as a
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55 million years since oceans as acidic
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine life food web
8ernle eL al. 2010. lnfluence of mlLlgaLlon pollcy on ocean acldlflcaLlon, C8L
G|oba| C|rcu|at|on Mode|s (GCM)
5*+6*&7 '$8& )6" 5$$' 9":
More frequent, severe, and pro|onged droughts
More frequent, severe, and pro|onged w||df|res
More frequent, severe, and pro|onged f|oods
Carl lolke, A sa !ansson, !ohan 8ocksLrom, er Clsson, SLephen 8. CarpenLer, l. SLuarL Chapln lll, Anne-Sophle Crepln, CreLchen ually, k[ell uanell, !onas Lbbesson, 1homas LlmqvlsL, vlcLor
Calaz, lredrlk Moberg, Mans nllsson, Penrlk C sLerblom, Lllnor CsLrom, A sa ersson, Carry eLerson, SLephen olasky, Wlll SLeffen, 8rlan Walker, lrances WesLley, 8econnecLlng Lo Lhe
8losphere, AM8lC (2011) 40:719738, uCl 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y, 8oyal Swedlsh Academy of Sclences
Resource
Wars &
Conflicts
A uecade of lmmense llnanclal Loss,
Puman 1ragedy & 1lme Squandered
Whats Left?
MMn, Muller, Mendelsohn and nordhaus, LnvlronmenLal AccounLlng for olluLlon ln Lhe uSA, Amerlcan Lconomlcs8evlew, 2011, LpsLeln eL al, new
?ork Academy of Sclences, 2010
LINFEN, CHINA
the most polluted city on
earth. Where, if one puts
laundry out to dry, it will
turn black before finishing
drying. Spending one day
in Linfen is equivalent to
smoking 3 packs of
cigarettes
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2
Past planetary mass extinctions
triggered by high CO
2
>550ppm
T00AY: 387PPH
Where we will be by 2100
1op 1S nat|on popu|at|ons exposed today & 2070
kanked |n terms of CULA1ICN exposed to coasta| f|ood|ng |n the
2070s (|nc|ud|ng both c||mate change and soc|oeconom|c change)
and show|ng present-day exposure
1op 20 C|t|es exposed sea |eve| r|se (pop)
kanked |n terms of ASSL1S exposed to coasta| f|ood|ng |n the 2070s
(|nc|ud|ng both c||mate change and soc|oeconom|c change) and
show|ng present-day exposure
1op 20 C|t|es exposed sea |eve| r|se (assets)
Ml1 1emperaLure SLudy
uanger
2009 Ml1 SLudy:
95% chance that Business-
as-usual temperature
lncrease wlll exceed 3.3C ln
2093, and a !"# %&'(%)
LemperaLure wlll !"#!!$ 3C!
Negative Tipping Points
Source: 1lmoLhy M. LenLonny , Permann Peld , Llmar krlegler , !lm W. Pall , Wolfgang
LuchL , SLefan 8ahmsLorf and Pans !oachlm Schellnhuber, 2007. 1lpplng elemenLs ln
Lhe LarLh's cllmaLe sysLem, roceedlngs of Lhe naLlonal Academy of Sclences uSA,
www.pnas.org/.
Cost-Benefit AnaIysis (CBA) MisIeading
"rough comparlsons could perhaps be made wlLh
Lhe poLenLlally-huge payoffs, small probablllLles,
and slgnlflcanL cosLs lnvolved ln counLerlng
Lerrorlsm, bulldlng anLl-balllsLlc mlsslle shlelds, or
neuLrallzlng hosLlle dlcLaLorshlps posslbly
harborlng weapons of mass desLrucLlon
HART|N wE|TZHAN. 2008. 0n Hode||ng and |nterpret|ng the Econom|cs of 6atastroph|c 6||mate 6hange. RE8tat F|NAL
Vers|on Ju|y 7, 2008, http:||www.econom|cs.harvard.edu|facu|ty|we|tzman|f||es|RE8tatF|NAL.pdf.
A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
envlronmenLal lnsurance pollcles mlghL be LhaL Lhe u.S. already spends
approxlmaLely 3 [~$400 bllllon ln 2010] of naLlonal lncome on Lhe cosL
of a clean envlronmenL."
a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
Lhe level of "caLasLrophe lnsurance" needed:
!"#$%& ()%$*+"&
robablllLy of house burnlng
down? Less Lhan 1
?L1
>80 homeowners buy
hazard lnsurance
robab|||ty of catastroph|c
c||mate d|sasters? Cver S0
L1
>na|f of USA essent|a||y says
cannot afford c||mate |nsurance
Insurance |s the response to the des|re
to avo|d or contro| worse-case scenar|os
GAIN Sc|ence, 1echno|ogy, Lng|neer|ng
GLNL1ICS
INICkMA1ICS
NANC1LCn
AU1CkC8C1ICS
CLIMA1L |n 4
Bumper Stickers
Your grandchildrens
||ves are |mportant
We need to buy
|nsurance for the p|anet
C||mate damages are too
va|uab|e to have pr|ces
Some costs are better
than others
lrank Ackerman, Can We Afford Lhe luLure?
Your grandchildrens
||ves are |mportant
lrank Ackerman, Can We Afford Lhe luLure?
C||mate Change |s a |ong-term prob|em over many centur|es, w|th
a non-zero probab|||ty of catastroph|c , |rrevers|b|e events and
cred|b|e worst cases |nvo|v|ng the end of much of human and
other ||fe on the p|anet.
Us|ng the r|ght D|scount kate
D|scount rates based on market |nterest rates ,or rate of return on
f|nanc|a| |nvestments, are more appropr|ate for shorter term
|nvestments w|th an average pattern of market r|sks.
Investments |n c||mate protect|on, however, bear a c|oser
resemb|ance to |nsurance, because |t |s a r|sk-reduc|ng |nvestment.
C||mate damages are too
va|uab|e to have pr|ces
lrank Ackerman, Can We Afford Lhe luLure?
Among the most |mportant |mpacts of unchecked c||mate change
are |ncreased |osses of human ||ves. Many cost-benef|t ana|yses
ass|gn an |ncome-based va|ue of a ||fe.
8ut any pr|ce for ||ves, h|gh or |ow, creates the m|s|ead|ng
|mpress|on that ||ves can be traded for other th|ngs of comparab|e
va|ue. A po||cy that k|||s 100 peop|e now |n order to save 300 other
||ves 10 years from now |s not equa||y successfu|: there |s no way to
compensate the 100 peop|e who pa|d the |n|t|a| cost.
As kant put |t centur|es ago, some th|ngs have a pr|ce, or re|at|ve
worth, wh||e other th|ngs have a d|gn|ty, or |nner worth.
Some costs are better
than others
lrank Ackerman, Can We Afford Lhe luLure?
Wh||e the benef|ts of c||mate protect|on |nvo|ve the pr|ce|ess va|ues
of human ||fe, nature, and the future, the costs cons|st of produc|ng
and buy|ng goods and serv|ces, |.e., th|ngs that have pr|ces.
In the SnCk1 run, econom|c theor|es of market equ|||br|um often
deny ex|stence of cost|ess or negat|ve-cost opportun|t|es for
em|ss|ons reduct|ons,
In the MLDIUM term, the same theor|es over|ook the emp|oyment
and other benef|ts that resu|t from c||mate po||c|es,
In the LCNG term, the most |mportant effect |s the pace of
|nnovat|on |n energy techno|og|es, another sub[ect on wh|ch
convent|ona| econom|cs has ||tt|e to offer.
We need to buy
|nsurance for the p|anet
lrank Ackerman, Can We Afford Lhe luLure?, clLlng MarLln WelLzman
1he probab|||ty of a res|dent|a| f|re |s |ess than ha|f a
percent, yet mortgages requ|re f|re |nsurance.
1he worst c||mate catastrophe |s |nescapab|y unknowab|e but
current know|edge |nd|cates the 99
th
percent||e of c||mate sens|t|v|ty
parameters cou|d be 10C or h|gher.
such high temperatures have not been seen for hundreds of
millions of yearsit would effectively destroy planet Earth as we
know |t. At a m|n|mum th|s wou|d tr|gger mass spec|es
ext|nct|ons and b|osphere ecosystem d|s|ntegrat|on match|ng or
exceed|ng the |mmense p|anetary d|e-offs assoc|ated w|th a
handfu| of such prev|ous geoc||mate mega-catastrophes in Earths
history.
<3S0 ppmis Possible, But
Lssent|a| kequ|rements
1. u|ck Coa| hase-Cut Necessary
A|| coa| em|ss|ons ha|ted |n 20 years
2. No Unconvent|ona| Ioss|| Iue|s
1ar sands, C|| sha|e, Methane hydrates
3. Dont Pursue Last Drops of Oil
o|ar reg|ons, Deep ocean, r|st|ne |and
!ames Pansen, Puman-Made CllmaLe Change: A Moral, ollLlcal and Legal lssue, 8lue laneL rlze LecLure, CcLober 2010, www.columbla.edu/~[eh1
Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO
2
emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on Americas Energy Future: Su++"#, -. " !))$%&/0
("12%&/$-&3 456 7"$%-&"8 9:";)+%)1 <#)110="1); -& ;"$" .#-+ (-#8; >"&? @AAB0 (-#8; 4)C)8-D+)&$ E&;%:"$-#1 @AAB0
>5]GD]cap
SwlLchAsla, MalnsLreamlng SusLalnable ConsumpLlon ln Asla, Consumer 8ook no. 3, clLlng WWl 2006,
1he path towards susta|nab|e consumpt|on:
kespond|ng to |ncreas|ng demand w|thout |nf|at|ng eco|og|ca| footpr|nts
rugnach, H., A. 0ewu|f, 6. Pah|-wost|, and T. Ta||||eu. 2008. Toward a re|at|ona| concept of uncerta|nty: about know|ng too ||tt|e, know|ng too
d|fferent|y, and accept|ng not to know. !"#$#%& ()* +#",-.& /01234 30. [on||nej URL: http:||www.eco|ogyandsoc|ety.org|vo|13||ss2|art30|
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpred|ctab|||ty |ncomp|ete know|edge Hu|t|p|e know|edge frames
Natura| system
Techn|ca| system
8oc|a| system
7-)8 <"##, )$ "803 5"8%.-#&%" F#))& E&&-C"$%-& E&;)G @AAH3 7)G$ IA3 JJJ0&)G$IA0-#/K
W8CSu, A aLh Lo SusLalnable ConsumpLlon, 10-11
ko|es and respons|b|||t|es of actors |n dr|v|ng
susta|nab|e consumpt|on
W8CSu, A aLh Lo SusLalnable ConsumpLlon, 10-11
susta|nab|e
consumpt|on
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
L0 !"$$2)J1 )$ "803 !"# %#&'"( )* +,(&)-.3 @AAA3 JJJ0J#%0-#/K
CLOSING THE LOOP Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing
Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry
Finance
Competence
!"#$% '$(#"%)*
Governance / values
Rights / duties
+,-- '$(#"%)*
Arts
Sciences
.'"#-$/0$ '$(#"%)*
Messages
Medias
1"234$'(5%6 '$(#"%)*
Trust
Social roles
!$%*"'5- '$(#"%)*
Equipment / technology
Health / environment
7"/,-6 '$(#"%)*
8"--$2(,9$
:'($--,0$'2$
CuL1u8AL
CAl1AL
8lCP?SlCAL
CAl1AL
L1PlCAL CAl1AL
LlS1LMlC
CAl1AL
8AC1lCAL
CAl1AL
SCClAL CAl1AL
lerre Levy, 2008, 8eyond SemanLlc Web, SemanLlc Space, Wku Conference
l8M ODriscoll
nASA, 8eporL Workshop on SusLalnable urban uevelopmenL, !une 2009, hLLp://evenL.arc.nasa.gov/maln/home/reporLs/C-2009-214603.pdf
nASA, 8eporL Workshop on SusLalnable urban uevelopmenL, !une 2009, hLLp://evenL.arc.nasa.gov/maln/home/reporLs/C-2009-214603.pdf
ken Caldelra
SCUkCL
1kILL S1kLNG1n Ck1ICLIC
*+,,'-. /01(23
1he 8ole of llnance 8elaLed Lo
CllmaLe SecurlLy and Lnergy SecurlLy
Low Hanging Fruit that keeps growing back now offer a
mu|t|-tr||||on do||ar g|oba| poo| of sav|ngs for compan|es
and |nst|tut|ons, w|th h|gh kCIs, and myr|ad anc|||ary
va|ues and co-benef|ts beyond c||mate]energy secur|ty
L|ectr|c, Gas & Water Ut|||t|es |ncented to de||ver |east-
cost, |east-r|sk ut|||ty serv|ces to the po|nt of use cou|d be
source of tens of tr||||ons of do||ars of f|nance
Sourc|ng standards-based, mu|t|p|e-benef|ts conservat|on
carbon offsets (CC8) |s a key part of a cost & r|sk-
m|n|m|z|ng portfo||o for address|ng mu|t|p|e secur|t|es
(c||mate, energy, econom|c, ecosystem serv|ces, conf||cts)
4-156) * /0-270610
/)-8'318) 9(70-,'210( : ;0,,+(1%'210( 4)%&(060<1)3 =). 20 *+%%)33
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become
climate positive and revenue positive
Ambitious, Continuous
Efficiency Gains
Smart Green Power
Protecting
Ecosystem Services
Adopting Cost & Risk-Resilient Portfolio
1}8hR|NK|NC - 60NT|NU0U8 EFF|6|EN6Y
Adopt decoup||ng+ and comprehens|ve |RP for
de||ver|ng ut|||ty serv|ces to the po|nt of use at |east
cost & r|sk, fu||y |nc|ud|ng end-use eff|c|ency
|mprovements and ons|te|d|str|buted generat|on
2}8h|FT|NC CREEN|8HART ENERCY
8e|ect only verifiable green power/fuels that are
c||mate- & b|od|vers|ty-fr|end|y, acce|erate not s|ow
poverty reduct|on, & avo|d adverse |mpacts
3}80UR6|NC - E608Y8TEH 0FF8ET8
Add 5.()*(6*578(5-* 199:3 carbon m|t|gat|on
opt|ons to portfo||o that de||ver tr|p|e benef|ts
(c||mate protect|on, b|od|vers|ty preservat|on, and
promot|on of commun|ty susta|nab|e deve|opment}
Promoting Triple S Portfolio
through Innovative Policies
orLfollo arL 1
SP8lnklnC
eco|og|ca| footpr|nts
(em|ss|ons, po||utants, waste, water, energy,
|and, & cap|ta|) through aggress|ve,
amb|t|ous and cont|nuous eff|c|ency ga|ns
51.2 b||||on sav|ngs over
S years on energy, water
& chem|ca| costs.
!"#$ &'(
If the chief executive is
not tota||y comm|tted, |t
wont succeed,
asqua|e |stor|o, CLC,
S1M|cro, 1987-200S
So the f|nanc|a| |ncent|ve |s there, but as CLC
asqua|e |stor|o stressed, its not enough.
8etween 1998-2010 S1M|cro
p|anted 10 m||||on trees |n
reforestat|on programs |n
Morocco, Austra||a, USA, Irance
and Ita|y (9,000 ha tota|).
179,000 tons of CC
2
sequestered.
SCUkCL:
Compensate the rema|n|ng d|rect CC
2
em|ss|ons through reforestat|on or other
carbon sequestrat|on methods, to reach
CC
2
d|rect em|ss|ons neutra||ty by 201S.
SnkINk:
keduce tota| em|ss|ons of CC
2
due to our
energy consumpt|on (tons of CC
2
per
product|on un|t) by S per year:
S1M|cro Carbon os|t|ve
& kevenue os|t|ve
SnII1:
Adopt whenever poss|b|e renewab|e
energy sources of w|nd, hydroe|ectr|c,
geotherm|c, photovo|ta|c, and therma|
so|ar.
Source: S1MlcroelecLronlcs, SusLalnablllLy 8eporL 2010, Cur culLure of SusLalnable Lxcellence ln racLlce,
www.sL.com/lnLerneL/com/CC8C8A1L_8LSCu8CLS/llnAnClAL/llnAnClAL_8LC81/S1_2010_susLalnablllLy_reporL.pdf
Dow s|ashed energy |ntens|ty by ~40
between 1990-200S.
59.4 b||||on sav|ngs between 1994-2010
940 kCI
CC
2
reduct|ons at
negat|ve cost
Zero net cost count|ng eff|c|ency sav|ngs. Not count|ng the eff|c|ency sav|ngs the
|ncrementa| cost of ach|ev|ng a 450 ppm path |s 55-80 b||||on per year between 20102020 for
deve|op|ng countr|es and 4050 b||||on for deve|oped countr|es, or about ha|f the 215
b||||on per year current|y spent subs|d|z|ng foss|| fue|s.
CO
2
Abatement potential & cost for 2020
reakdown by abatement type
9 Ct terrestr|a| carbon (forestry|agr|cu|ture}
6 Ct energy eff|c|ency
4 Ct |ow-carbon energy supp|y
kob Wa|ton, Cha|rman, Wa|mart M|ke Duke CLC, Wa|mart
2004 in the Bulls eye
138 m||||on customers every week
100,000 product ||nes 60,000 supp||ers |n 70 countr|es
8,S00-p|us stores
and c|ubs
1.7 m||||on assoc|ates
Walmarts Wor|d
70 Wa|mart Imports from Ch|na 2008
2S from 14 other nat|ons ( )
Most of Walmarts |mpact & cost |s |mbedded |n products
ackaglng
AgrlculLure
WaLer
Marlne
lacLorles
Ind|rect Impact =
92
We are |ook|ng at |nnovat|ve ways to reduce our GnG em|ss|ons. 1h|s used to
be controvers|a|, but the sc|ence |s |n and |t |s overwhe|m|ng.
Lee ScoLL, CLC
21
sL
CenLury Leadershlp
resentat|on Nov. 24, 200S
') *+,-./0 *1.)20 34/,5)
We believe every company
has a respons|b|||ty to reduce
GnG as qu|ck|y as |t can.
Wa|-Mart can he|p restore
ba|ance to c||mate systems,
reduce greenhouse gases,
save money for our
customers, and reduce
dependence on oil.
') *+,-./0 *1.)20 34/,5)
We are comm|tted to aggress|ve|y |nvest|ng 5S00 m||||on annua||y |n
techno|og|es and |nnovat|on to do the fo||ow|ng:
keduc|ng GnG at our ex|st|ng store, c|ub and
D|str|but|on Center base around the wor|d by
20 percent w]|n 7 years.
Des|gn|ng and open|ng prototype stores 2S-30
more eff|c|ent and 30 fewer GnG em|ss|ons
w|th|n the next 4 years.
Increas|ng f|eet eff|c|ency 2S |n 3 years, and
doub||ng eff|c|ency |n the next 10 years.
Shar|ng a|| |earn|ng |n techno|ogy w|th the wor|d,
|nc|ud|ng our compet|tors (the more peop|e who
can ut|||ze th|s type of techno|ogy the |arger the
market and more we can save our customers)
') *+,-./0 *1.)20 34/,5)
We are comm|tted to the fo||ow|ng:
Ass|st|ng |n the des|gn and
support of a green company
program |n Ch|na, where
Wa|mart wou|d show preference
to those supp||ers and the|r
factor|es |nvo|ved |n such a
program.
In|t|at|ng a program |n the U.S.
that shows preference to
supp||ers who set the|r own goa|s
and aggress|ve|y reduce the|r
own em|ss|ons.
Lee Scott, then-
pres|dent and CLC of
Wa|mart , speak|ng to
1000 Supp||ers |n Ch|na,
Cctober 2008
') *+,-./0 *1.)20 34/,5)
Lee ScoLL, CLC
21
sL
CenLury Leadershlp
resentat|on Nov. 24, 200S
You cant just keep doing what works one time. Everything
around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.
Sam Wa|ton, founder
2010 SusLalnablllLy reporL 2011 SusLalnablllLy reporL
These commitments are a first
step. 1o address c||mate change
we need to cut em|ss|ons
wor|dw|de.
We know that these
commitments wont even
ma|nta|n our fast grow|ng
companys overall emissions at
current |eve|s.
1here |s more to do, we are
committed to doing our part.
ln 2006, WalmarL seL a goal of
reduclng energy consumpLlon
& CC
2
emlsslons ln Lhe uSA by
selllng 100 m||||on compact
f|uorescent ||ght bu|bs (CILs)
by the end of 2007.
WalmarL exceeded LhaL goal by
selllng 137 mllllon.
8y Lhe end of 2010, WalmarL
had sold more Lhan 460
m||||on CILs.
You cant just keep doing what works one time. Everything
around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.
Sam WalLon, founder
+,21/9
0-,//,)2
:,5:0;
New Goal to Supersede CFLs with LEDs
Augment|ng natura| day||ght|ng w|th u|tra-eff|c|ent LE0s offer cap|ta| and
operat|ng sav|ngs, as we|| as dramat|c reduct|ons |n Hercury em|ss|ons
LLD ||ght|ng cou|d d|sp|ace 100s GWs
Walmarts 8|ggest Compet|tor
n|gh C|| & Ut|||ty r|ces
Aggress|ve|y pursu|ng regu|atory and po||cy changes that w|||
create |ncent|ves for ut|||t|es to |nvest |n energy eff|c|ency and
|ow or no GnG sources of e|ectr|c|ty, and to reduce barr|ers to
|ntegrat|ng these sources |nto the power gr|d.
Amory Lov|ns & |mran 8he|kh, The Nuc|ear |||us|on, Hay 2008, www.rm|.org
nuc|ear coa| 66 gas w|nd farm
66 |nd
cogen
b|dg sca|e
cogen
recyc|ed
|nd cogen
end-use
efficiency
CCS
Cost of new delivered electricity (US/kWh)
US current
average
1]kWh
2 47
93 kg
Amory Lov|ns & |mran 8he|kh, The Nuc|ear |||us|on, Hay 2008, www.rm|.org
Coal-fired CO
2
emissions displaced
per dollar spent on
electrical services
g|oba| cumu|at|ve e|ectr|c ut|||ty
|nfrastructure |nvestment needed
between 2007 and 2030.
US526.3 tr||||on
Source: lLA, ln 2007 uS$, CLl & Clobal SmarL Lnergy. 2008. 1he LlecLrlclLy Lconomy,
hLLp://www.globalenvlronmenLfund.com/daLa/uploads/1he20LlecLrlclLy20Lconomy.pdf
12.7 tr||||on kWh
Add|t|ona| generat|on by 2030
New York
6a||forn|a
U8A m|nus 6A & NY
Per CapitaI
EIectricity
Consumption
15 Cw
6oa|
Power
P|ants
Californians have
net sav|ngs of
$1,000 per fam||y
[EPPsj
Ior de||ver|ng |east-cost & r|sk e|ectr|c|ty, natura| gas & water serv|ces
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting
lower cost efficiency over new power plants or
hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
now use 1/2 global power
30-30 efflclency savlngs achlevable w/ hlgh 8Cl
LLLC18lC MC1C8 S?S1LMS
Industr|a| e|ectr|c motor systems
consume 40 of e|ectr|c|ty
wor|dw|de, S0 |n USA, 60 |n Ch|na
08)- > 2-16610( ?@& 5)- .)'-.
ketrof|t sav|ngs of 30, New sav|ngs
of S0 -- Q 1 ]kWh.
A 2-16610( ?@& 5)- .)'- 3'81(<3 equa| to
1]4
th
a|| coa| p|ants to be bu||t through
2030 wor|dw|de.
BAC" D16610( 3'81(<3 per decade.
BA"" 20 BC"" D16610( benef|ts per decade
|n avo|ded em|ss|ons of GnGs, SC
2
and
NC
x
.
Lff|c|ency Cutcomes Demand Iacts
MNDD-#$ MLLL!
O+.()*(6*5 ;#6 !)-6%&
!;;,",-)"& #; !$-".6,"
<#.#6 +&5.-=5P
8EEEH (www.seeem.org|} |s a comprehens|ve market
transformat|on strategy to promote eff|c|ent
|ndustr|a| e|ectr|c motor systems wor|dw|de
E020- E'-?)2 4-'(370-,'210(
/'2& 20 E+621F 4-16610( G066'- *'81(<3
Less 6oa| Power P|ants
Less 6oa| Ra|| 6ars
Less 6oa| H|nes
More Retail Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs
Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
Wa|mart |s on the path to tr|p||ng
|ts truck f|eet eff|c|ency.
Cver the past 2 years Wa|mart
rep|aced ~2]3
rd
of the|r f|eet w|th
more eff|c|ent tractors.
Ach|eved 6S reduct|on |n fue| per ton km over
past S years.
In 2010, Wa|mart de||vered S7 m||||on more
cases, wh||e dr|v|ng 79 m||||on fewer km.
Avo|d|ng ~40,000 t]CC
2
-- equ|va|ent to tak|ng
7,600 U.S. cars off the road.
Source, 8ulldlng Lhe nexL CeneraLlon WalmarLResponsibility,
2011 Clobal 8esponslblllLy reporL
2.7 km]|
S29 m||||on ||ters
[6.4 mpg
140 m||||on ga|]
<=<>### 104/.?0;
Land requ|red |f
Wa|-Mart C|ass 8
|arge truck f|eet
Sw|tched from
Ioss|| D|ese| to
8|oD|ese| from
C|| a|m
|antat|ons
2.7 km|| 529 m||||on ||ters
5.5 km|| 25 m||||on ||ters
8 km|| 17 m||||on ||ters
@#>### 104/.?0;
When the truck f|eet ach|eves tr|p|e fue| eff|c|ency
2004 2011
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
biodiesel truck efficiency
$65
$15
p
e
r

b
a
r
r
e
l

c
o
s
t
Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency
6.):9 A B./0?9*5);0?C,)2> ',+9&0:D4,)2>
7-,;;,5)9E?0C0)/,)2 .): F5)0G H.C,)2
Space Cooling
60%
Ventilation
5%
Lighting
18%
Lift/Escalator
5%
Equipment
8%
Others
4%
1rop|ca| C||mate
(Coo||ng A|| ear kound)
PCW LnL8C? LlllClLn1 A8L ?Cu8 8ulLulnCs?
1yplcal Lnergy usage Commerclal 8ulldlng
uaLa ls for bulldlngs ln hoL and humld cllmaLe llke Slngapore, !akarLa, kuala Lumpur, eLc
ASnkAL--Ch|||er |ant Lff|c|ency
0.5
(7.0)
0.6
(5.9)
0.7
(5.0)
0.8
(4.4)
0.9
(3.9)
1.0
(3.5)
1.1
(3.2)
1.2
(2.9)
NEEDS IMPROVEMENT FAIR GOOD EXCELLENT
AVERAGE ANNUAL CHILLER PLANT EFFICIENCY IN KW/TON (C.O.P.)
(Input energy includes chillers, condenser pumps, tower fans and chilled water pumping)
New Technology
All-Variable Speed
Chiller Plants
High-efficiency
Optimized
Chiller Plants
Conventional
Code Based
Chiller Plants
Older Chiller
Plants
Chiller Plants with
Correctable Design or
Operational Problems
Based on electrically driven centrifugal chiller plants in comfort conditioning applications with
42F (5.6C) nominal chilled water supply temperature and open cooling towers sized for 85F
(29.4C) maximum entering condenser water temperature and 20% excess capacity.
Local Climate adjustment for North American climates is +/- 0.05 kW/ton
kW/ton
C.O.P.
0.S9 typ|ca| 1rane Guaranty
Source: LLL Lng Lock, Slngapore
Source: LLL Lng Lock, Slngapore
1yp|ca| Ch|||er |ant -- Needs Improvement
(1.2 kW per ton)
Source: LLL Lng Lock, Slngapore
n|gh erformance Ch|||er |ant (0.S6 kW]t)
Source: LLL Lng Lock, Slngapore
nCW? 8|gger p|pes, 4S ang|es, Sma||er ch|||ers
I|nanc|a| 8enef|ts

Before After
Cooling TonHr/Week 80,000 80,000
System kWH/Week 152,000 47,200
kWh/TonH 1.90 0.59
Energy Savings in %
Energy Savings in kWH / Year
Energy Savings in $/Year @ $0.20/KWH
Water usage per year (M3) 0 34,682
Water Charge per year (New Water @ $1.0/M3)
Estimated Total $ Savings per Year
Annual Reduction in Carbon Emission per year (Tones)
$34,682
$1,055,238
2,724,800
68.95%
5,449,600
$1,089,920
kCI = 29. Lnergy Sav|ngs over 1S years = S51SM
Da||y System keport August 2009
kea| t|me mon|tor|ng w|th ca||brated smart sensors
Source: LLL Lng Lock, Slngapore
1. Ask for 0.60 kW/81 or beLLer for chlller planL.
2. Ask for performance guaranLee backed by clear
flnanclal penalLles ln evenL of performance shorLfall.
3. Ask for accuraLe MeasuremenL & verlflcaLlon sysLem
of aL leasL +-3 accuracy ln accordance Lo
lnLernaLlonal sLandards of A8l-330 & ASP8AL guldes
14 & 22.
4. Ask for onllne lnLerneL access Lo monlLor Lhe planL
performance.
3. Ask for Lrack record.
Source: LLL Lng Lock, Slngapore
S|mp|e Gu|de to retrof|t success
II Coo||ng Load |n kW per ton:
1yp|ca|: ~1.2 kW]ton or 114 more
8est: ~0.S6 kW]ton
Cost of overbu||d|ng &
poor eff|c|ency |eve|
A|rcon equ|pment ~54k]ton
Coo||ng demand ~ 0.02S ton]m
2
of
a|rcon space
Average over-s|z|ng |s 2x
Wasted cap|ta| stock = 0.02S x 1m
m
2
x 54k = US5100 m||||on
Avg eff|c|ency ex|st|ng a|rcon 1.2
kW]t
Lxcess a|rcon energy (1.2 0.S6), &
cost: 0.02S x 1m m
2
x S000 hrs]a x
50.20]kWh = US517 m||||on]yr
ILLUS1kA1IVL LkAMLL
Coo||ng Load |n kW per ton?
Code: ~0.8S kW]ton or S0 more
8est: ~0.S6 kW]ton
Cost of overbu||d|ng &
Code eff|c|ency |eve|
A|rcon equ|pment ~54k]ton
Coo||ng demand ~ 0.02S ton]m
2
of
a|r-cond|t|oned space
Above average overs|z|ng |s 1.Sx
Wasted cap|ta| stock = 0.02S*S0 x
1m m
2
x 54k = US5S0 m||||on
Code eff|c|ency ex|st|ng a|rcon 0.8S
kW]t
Lxcess a|rcon energy (0.8S 0.S6),
& cost: 0.012S x 1mm
2
x S000 hrs]a
x 50.20]kWh= US512.S m||||on]yr
ILLUS1kA1IVL LkAMLL
orLfollo arL 2
SPll1lnC
1o green power and fue| opt|ons that are both
c||mate & b|od|vers|ty pos|t|ve, and have the
sma||est comb|ned eco|og|ca| |mpacts
Cver 4000 Wa|mart stores w|th
wh|te roofs, and standard
pract|ce s|nce 1990
kef|ects away 80 of so|ar heat
*HIJK KLMIL;4HK*
Q"12)+9?="#% 9#$2N# R-1)&.)8; "&; MN#"=% !)&-&3 F8-="8 5--8%&/6 E&:#)"1%&/ (-#8;SJ%;) T#="& 98=);-1 $- U..1)$ 5U@3 V
$2
9&&N"8 5"8%.-#&%" 58%+"$) 52"&/)
5-&.)#)&:)3 M":#"+)&$-3 593 M)D$)+=)# H3 @AAB3 2$$D6KKJJJ0:8%+"$):2"&/)0:"0/-CK)C)&$1K@AABW:-&.)#)&:)KD#)1)&$"$%-&1K%&;)G02$+8
Wor|d of So|ar kef|ect|ng C|t|es
52+ 1r||||on G|oba| Sav|ngs otent|a|, S9 Gt CC
2
keduct|on
100 m
2
1. Lconom|ca||y affordab|e
2. Safe
3. C|ean
4. k|sk |s |ow and manageab|e
S. kes|||ent and f|ex|b|e
6. Lco|og|ca||y susta|nab|e
7. Lnv|ronmenta||y ben|gn
8. Ia||s gracefu||y, not catastroph|ca||y
9. kebounds eas||y and sw|ft|y from fa||ures
10. Lndogenous |earn|ng capac|ty
11. kobust exper|ence curve for reduc|ng negat|ve
externa||t|es & amp||fy|ng pos|t|ve externa||t|es
12. Un|nterest|ng target for ma||c|ous d|srupt|on
Dozen DesirabIe Criteria
Attributes of Green Energy Services
|nc|ud|ng poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
through the ent|re ||fe cyc|e?
through the ent|re ||fespan?
from f|nanc|a| and pr|ce vo|at|||ty?
to vo|at|||ty, surpr|ses, m|sca|cu|at|ons, human error?
no adverse |mpacts on b|od|vers|ty?
ma|nta|ns a|r, water, so|| qua||ty?
adaptab|e to abrupt surpr|ses or cr|ses?
|ow recovery cost and |ost t|me?
Intr|ns|c transformat|ve |nnovat|on opportun|t|es?
sca|ab|e product|on poss|b|||t|es?
off radar of terror|sts or m|||tary p|anners?
A Defensible Green
Energy Criteria Scoring
L..%:%)&:,
>E<X <X (%&; 5M< 5Q< >%-J"1$)
D-J)#
F)-S
$2)#+"8
7"$
/"1
>%-S
.N)81
U%8
%+D-#$1
5-"8
55M
&N:8)"# Y"#
1"&;
U%8
12"8)
5-"8 $-
8%ZN%;1
5-"8
&-
55M
romoLe
/01 2
3&)4,.(#.
L:-&-+%:"88, 9..-#;"=8)
M".)
58)"&
M):N#)
R)1%8%)&$ [ .8)G%=8)
L:-8-/%:"88, 1N1$"%&"=8)
L&C%#-&+)&$"88, =)&%/&
\"%81 /#":).N88,3 &-$ :"$"1$#-
R)=-N&;1 )"1%8, .#-+ ."%8N#)1
L&;-/)&-N1 8)"#&%&/ :"D":%$,
R-=N1$ )GD)#%)&:) :N#C)1
T&%&$)#)1$%&/ +%8%$"#, $"#/)$
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
SoIar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients
1336 Watts per m
2
from the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving
economic activity
M-N#:)6 E&$)#&"$%-&"8 L&)#/, 9/)&:,3 L&)#/, Y):2&-8-/, <)#1D):$%C)13 @AAB3 D0 ]^^0 Y2) .%/N#) %1 ="1); -& 7"$%-&"8
<)$#-8)N+ 5-N&:%83 @AA_ ".$)# 5#"%/3 5N&&%&/2"+ "&; M"%/-0
Oil
Gas
Uranium
Coal
ANNUAL Wind
Hydro
Photosynthesis
ANNUAL Solar Energy
Annual global energy consumption by humans
SCLAk nC1CNS
ACCkULD IN A MCN1n
EXCEED THE EARTHS
ICSSIL IULL kLSLkVLS
orLfollo arL 3
SCu8ClnC CllSL1S
rema|n|ng footpr|nts by prevent|on of threatened
trop|ca| forests (kLDD+) and other |ntact ecosystems
(e.g., mangroves, peat |ands, grass |ands) through
standards-based conservat|on carbon offsets
rotect|ng Cr|t|ca|
W||derness to Cffset
Cperat|on Iootpr|nts
In 200S, Wa|-Mart adopted the
goa| to permanent|y offset the
|and footpr|nt of a|| the|r USA
stores and d|str|but|on centers by
protect|ng cr|t|ca| w||d||fe hab|tat
|n the USA.
Walmarts 53S m||||on donat|on
over 10 years enab|es purchas|ng
enough |and to account for |ts
stores current |and-use, as we|| as
the companys development
throughout the 10-year per|od --
rough|y 60,000 hectares.
High Quality Multi-Benefit
$4 million to protect the Tayna and
Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in
eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation
area in Peru.
Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of
CO
2
from being released into the
atmosphere.
Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Carbon Standards.
Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
8llllon Lons CC
2
14 miIIion hectares burned each
year emitting 5 to 8 biIIion tons
CO
2
per year. More emissions
than worId transport system of
cars, trucks, trains, pIanes, ships
GHG
IeveIs
Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
8llllon Lons CC
2
5 to 8 biIIion tons CO2 per year
in mitigation services avaiIabIe in
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by biIIions of doIIars
annuaIIy ; and saving better-off
nations biIIions of doIIars.
GHG
IeveIs
Outsourcing CO
2
reductions to become Climate Positive
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
CCS REDD
Geo|og|ca| storage (CCS) vs
Lco|og|ca| storage (kLDD)
Carbon M|t|gat|on Cost
U.S. foss|| L|ectr|c|ty CC
2
m|t|gat|on cost annua||y
(2.4 GtCC
2
|n 2007)
~5N"" b||||on
~3 per kWh
~518 b||||on
~0.S per kWh
5 per ton CC
2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
keduced Lm|ss|ons Deforestat|on
& Degradat|on (kLDD)
M-N#:)6 !%:2")8 Y-$$)&3 RL44 %1 55M 7U(3 4):)+=)# @AAB
0
U.S. foss|| L|ectr|c|ty |n 2007
2.4 b||||on tons CC
2
em|ss|ons
1rop|ca| Deforestat|on 2007
13 m||||on hectares burned
7 b||||on tons CC2 em|ss|ons
57.S0 per ton CC2
1]2 cent per kWh
518 b||||on]yr kLDD trade
overty reduct|on
revent Spec|es |oss
A w|n-w|n-w|n
outcome
A w|n-w|n-w|n
outcome
SCUkCL
1kILL S1kLNG1n Ck1ICLIC
Amory Lov|ns, se|ect pub||cat|ons 1976 to 2012
vehlcle-Lo-Crld
Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
Convergences & Lmergences
www.youLube.com/waLch?v=l1kC0C3f3?&feaLure=relaLed
www.youLube.com/waLch?v=u_LkZvb7gc8
hwww.Lechonomy.com/#Le10
8u||d|ngs
Commerc|a| bu||d|ng energy eff|c|ency supp|y curve
by end use, 20S0
Lnergy sav|ngs for |ntegrat|ve des|gn cases
(new res|dent|a|)
Shannon SmlLh, ln Cermany, house powers car, SmarLlaneL, uecember 30, 2011, www.smarLplaneL.com/
Zero Lmlsslons Pome and LlecLrlc Car
Ut|||t|es
20S0 |nsta||ed capac|ty by case
`R)&)J"=8) :-1$1 )G:8N;) $"G :#);%$1 [ 1%+%8"# 1N=1%;%)1a &-&#)&)J"=8) :-1$1 %+D8%:%$8, %&:8N;) +"&, :-+D8)G 1N=1%;%)10
1echno|ogy cap|ta| cost* pro[ect|ons, 2010-20S0
U.S. w|nd & so|ar V cap|ta| cost trends 1976-2010
Near-term cost reduct|ons for ground-mounted V System
resent va|ue costs of the U.S. e|ectr|c|ty system 2010-2060
n|stor|c & pro[ected CC2 em|ss|ons from the
U.S. e|ectr|c|ty sector, 1990-20S0
Industry
1ransport
Lightweight autos neednt cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleeL
shows llLLle or no correlaLlon beLween llghLer welghL and hlgher prlces.
M
a
n
u
f
a
c
t
u
r
e
r

s

S
u
g
g
e
s
t
e
d

R
e
t
a
i
l

P
r
i
c
e
Crash-safeLy rlsk wlLh llghLwelghL maLerlals ln auLomoLlve
appllcaLlons ls only percelved, noL supporLed by evldence. LlghLer
auLos are acLually safer Lhan heavler ones Lhe same slze.
1raff|c fata||t|es, veh|c|e we|ght changes, and veh|c|e s|ze
based on 1999 U.S. f|eet on the road
Automot|ve manufactur|ng costs can be cut by 80 w|th carbon f|ber-based autos vs. stee|-
based ones due to great|y reduced too||ng and s|mp|er assemb|y and [o|n|ng. nowever, such
cost sav|ngs are current|y overshadowed w|th carbon f|ber mater|a| pr|ces ~516]|b.
Compar|son of carbon f|ber vs. stee| manufactur|ng costs
U.S. motor gaso||ne consumpt|on w|th & w|thout
po||cy change and acce|erated retoo||ng, 2010-20S0
Cost reduct|on potent|a| of powertra|ns
Cumu|at|ve vo|ume-based |earn|ng curves
for battery packs and fue| ce|| systems
U.S. |nsta||ed w|nd & so|ar power capac|t|es
and pro[ect|ons, 1990-20S0
nour|y operab|||ty |n a h|gh-penetrat|on renewab|es scenar|o
nour|y operab|||ty on a m|crogr|d
Var|ab|e renewab|e output (hour|y)
!acobson, M. & M. ueluchl, A lan for a SusLalnable luLure by
2030, SclenLlflc Amerlcan, nov 2009
!acobson, M. & M. ueluchl, A lan for a SusLalnable
luLure by 2030, SclenLlflc Amerlcan, nov 2009
Market share of d|fferent V techno|og|es
1999-2010
1he Clobal markeL for solar cells,
WashlngLon osL, uecember 16,
2011, Sources: hoLon
lnLernaLlonal, LarLh ollcy
lnsLlLuLe, Wlley 8eln.
1he pr|ce of so|ar pane|s fe|| stead||y for 40 years.
S|nce Ianuary 2008 German so|ar modu|es pr|ces dropped from 3 to 1 per peak
watt (Wp). Dur|ng that same t|me product|on capac|ty grew S0 per annum.
Ch|na market share rose from 8 |n 2008 to over SS by end of 2010.
Modu|e pr|ces have dropped to US51.21.S]Wp (crysta|||ne).
8lv (mccabe)
IINANCING
Innovative Solar Financing Options
Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all
personal motorized transportation in China.
120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh
twice as expensive as solar PV electricity
M-N#:)6 b-&"$2"& ()%&)#$3 52"?$"& !"3 52#%1 52)##,3 Y2) Y#"&1%$%-& $- L8):$#%: >%?)1 %& 52%&"6 Q%1$-#, "&; c), R)"1-&1
.-# R"D%; F#-J$2a 98"& 4N#&%&/3 Y2#)) Y#)&;1 $2"$ ."C-# )8):$#%: =%?)13 I@S@ASIA3 JJJ0/#%1$0-#/K"#$%:8)K:2"#/%&/SND
F)#+"&,d1 MT7S9RL9 R)1)"#:2 <#-e):$ T1)1 9#:FEM to ca|cu|ate the poss|b|e so|ar y|e|d per bu||d|ng for c|ty of 0snabroeck.
GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,
WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS Achievable this Century
Cata|yz|ng so|ar smart po|y-gr|ds
6ont|nuous a|gor|thm measures |ncom|ng so|ar rad|at|on, converts to usab|e energy
prov|ded by so|ar photovo|ta|c (PV} power systems, ca|cu|ates revenue stream based
on rea|-t|me dynam|c power market pr|ce po|nts, cross |ntegrates data w|th
adm|n|strat|ve and f|nanc|a| programs for |nsta|||ng and ma|nta|n|ng so|ar PV systems.
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously
calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of
urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.
www.youtube.com]watch?v=kvm|0I9LA
www.youtube.com]watch?v=kvm|0I9LA
Women 8arefoot So|ar Lng|neers Wor|dw|de
1he Afrlcan markeL for off-grld llghLlng producLs ls pro[ecLed Lo achleve
40 Lo 30 annual sales growLh, wlLh 3-6 mllllon Afrlcan households
ownlng quallLy porLable llghLs (prlmarlly solar) by 2013.
LlghLlng Afrlca conLrlbuLed Lo Lhls markeL acceleraLlon: ln 2010 alone,
the sales of solar portable lanterns that have passed Lighting Africas
quallLy LesLs grew by 70 ln Afrlca.
1hls resulLed ln more Lhan 672,000 people on Lhe conLlnenL wlLh
cleaner, safer, rellable llghLlng and lmproved energy access.
LC"& !%8813 FRU55 4)+-&1$#"$%-& <#-e):$6 9..-#;"=8)3 Q%/2S<)#.-#+"&:) M-8"# fL4 f%/2$%&/ <%8-$ C%" $2) !%88)&&%N+ X%88"/)1 <#-e):$3 2$$D6KK))$;08=80/-CK)+%881
lor cells ln producLlon now Lhe
energy payback ls beLween 6
monLhs and 3 years!
MyLh 1:
v use more energy Lo make Lhan Lhey
produce over Lhelr llfeLlme
Sl - 2
nd
mosL abundanL elemenL
in Earths crust
1he amorphous slllcon cells
manufacLured from one Lon
of sand could produce as
much elecLrlclLy as burnlng
300,000 Lons of coal
MyLh 2:
We do noL have Lnough 8aw MaLerlals
!obs creaLed wlLh every
mllllon dollars spenL
on:
oll and gas exploraLlon:
1.3
on coal mlnlng: 4.4
on produclng solar
waLer heaLers: 14
on photovo|ta|c pane|s:
17
MyLh 3:
Solar Doesnt Create Many Jobs
In the USA, c|t|es and res|dences cover S6 m||||on hectares.
Lvery kWh of current U.S. energy requ|rements can be met s|mp|y by
'556.1(< 5&0208062'1%3 O/PQ 20 ># 07 )R1321(< +-D'( '-)'
on roofs, park|ng |ots, a|ong h|ghway wa||s, on s|des of bu||d|ngs, and
|n dua|-uses. [ Also requlres 93 less waLer Lhan fossll fuels.]
Experts say we wouldnt have to appropriate a single acre of new
|and to make V our pr|mary energy source!
MyLh 3:
Solar requlres Loo much land area
90% of Americas current
electricity could be supplied with
PV systems built in the brown-
fieldsthe estimated 2+ million
hectares of abandoned industrial
sites that exist in our nations
cities.
f"##, c"*+)#1?%3 4%1D)88%&/ $2) _ !,$21 -. M-8"# L8):$#%:%$,3 @AAI3 7"$%-&"8 R)&)J"=8) L&)#/, f"=3 JJJ0&#)80/-CKa
CIeaning Up
BrownfieId
Sites w/
PV soIar
SoIar PhotovoItaics (PV) satisfying 90%
totaI US eIectricity from brownfieIds
8un8|ate u||d|ng-|ntegrated
Photovo|ta|cs (|PV} commerc|a|
bu||d|ng |n 8w|tzer|and
Hater|a|
Rep|aced
Econom|c
Heasure
e|j|ng 8hangha|
Po||shed
8tone
NPV ($}
6R
PP (yrs}
+$18,58
2.33
1
+$14,237
2.14
1
A|um|num
NPV ($}
6R
PP (yrs}
+$15,373
1.89
2
+$11,024
1.70
2
Net Present Va|ues (NPV}, enef|t-6ost Rat|os (6R}
& Payback Per|ods (PP} for Architectural BIPV
(Th|n F||m, wa||-Hounted PV} |n e|j|ng and
8hangha| (assum|ng a 157 |nvestment Tax 6red|t}
>,#&) )$ "83 56)-)7&6. )* 89&:;&-' <-(#'=,(#; 1> &- /"&-,3 bN8, @AAI3 T&%C0 -. 4)8"J"#)3 5)&$)# .-# L&)#/, "&; L&C%#-&+)&$"8 <-8%:,3 YJJJ0N;)80);NK:))DKYg
China Economics of CommerciaI BIPV
BuiIding-Integrated PhotovoItaics
Reference costs of facade-c|add|ng mater|a|s
|PV |s so econom|ca||y attract|ve because |t
captures both energy sav|ngs and sav|ngs from
d|sp|ac|ng other expens|ve bu||d|ng mater|a|s.
L%..)#$3 <03 FN%;)8%&)1 .-# $2) L:-&-+%: LC"8N"$%-& -. >N%8;%&/SE&$)/#"$); <2-$-C-8$"%: <-J)# M,1$)+13 E&$)#&"$%-&"8 L&)#/, 9/)&:, <X<M Y"1? _6
<2-$-C-8$"%: <-J)# M,1$)+1 %& $2) >N%8$ L&C%#-&+)&$3 b"&0 @AA]3 7"$%-&"8 R)&)J"=8) L&)#/, f"=3 7RLfKY<SVVAS]IH__3 JJJ0&#)80/-CK
Economics of CommerciaI BIPV
China Economics of CommerciaI BIPV
DayIighting couId dispIace 100s GWs
L|ght|ng, & A6 to remove heat em|tted by ||ghts,
consume ha|f of a commerc|a| bu||d|ng
e|ectr|c|ty.
0ay||ght|ng can prov|de up to 1007 of day-t|me
||ght|ng, e||m|nat|ng mass|ve amount of power
p|ants and sav|ng tens of b||||ons of do||ars |n
avo|ded costs.
8ome day||ght des|gns |ntegrate PV so|ar ce||s.
High-E Windows dispIacing pipeIines
Fu|| use of h|gh performance w|ndows |n the
U.8. cou|d save the equ|va|ent of an A|askan
p|pe||ne (2 m||||on barre|s of o|| per day}, as
we|| as accrue #>-6 ?/@ 8,$$,#) A-6 &-(6 of
sav|ngs on energy b|||s.
Se|f-||m|ted p|asmon|c we|d|ng
of s||ver nanow|re [unct|ons
Lrlk C. CarneLL, Wenshan Cal, !udy !. Cha, lakhruddln Mahmood, SLephen 1. Connor, M. Creyson ChrlsLoforo, ?l Cul, Mlchael u. McCehee &
Mark L. 8rongersma, Self-llmlLed plasmonlc weldlng of sllver nanowlre [uncLlons, naLure MaLerlals, lebruary 03, 2012
When Lwo nanowlres lay crlsscrossed llghL wlll generaLe plasmon waves aL
Lhe place where Lhe Lwo nanowlres meeL, creaLlng a hoL spoL. 1he beauLy ls
LhaL Lhe hoL spoLs exlsL only when Lhe nanowlres Louch, noL afLer Lhey have
fused. 1he weldlng sLops lLself. lL's self-llmlLlng. 1hls ablllLy Lo heaL wlLh
preclslon greaLly lncreases Lhe conLrol, speed and energy efflclency of
nanoscale weldlng.
Nanoshe|| wh|sper|ng ga||er|es |mprove th|n so|ar pane|s
?an ?ao, !le ?ao, vl[ay krls naraslmhan, Zhlchao 8uan, Chong xle, Shanhul lan & ?l Cul, 8roadband llghL managemenL uslng low-C whlsperlng
gallery modes ln spherlcal nanoshells, naLure CommunlcaLlons, 3, dol:10.1038/ncomms1664, leb 7, 2012
uslng spherlcal nanoshell sLrucLures achleved absorpLlon comparable Lo mlcron-Lhlck layers wlLh 30-nm-
Lhlck shells, reduclng Lhe fllm deposlLlon Llme necessary Lo achleve sLrong absorpLlon from hours Lo mlnuLes.
CuanLum doL solar cells use quanLum doLs as Lhe phoLovolLalc maLerlal, as opposed
Lo bulk maLerlals such as slllcon, copper lndlum galllum selenlde (ClCS) or Cadmlum
1ellurlde (Cd1e). CuanLum doLs have bandgaps LhaL are Lunable across a wlde range of
energy levels by changlng Lhe quanLum doL slze, ln conLrasL Lo bulk maLerlals where
Lhe bandgap ls flxed by Lhe cholce of maLerlal composlLlon. 1hls properLy makes
quanLum doLs aLLracLlve for mulLl-[uncLlon solar cells, where a varleLy of dlfferenL
energy levels are used Lo exLracL more power from Lhe solar specLrum.
CuanLum-doL solar v cells
Collodlal-quanLum-doL vs uslng aLomlc-llgand passlvaLlon
16 of Lhe lnorganlc CCu devlces
CuanLum doLs are nanoscale semlconducLors LhaL capLure llghL and converL lL
lnLo an energy source. 1he doLs can be sprayed on Lo flexlble surfaces,
lncludlng plasLlcs. Lnables producLlon of solar cells less expenslve and more
durable Lhan Lhe more wldely-known slllcon-based verslon.
1|tan|a w|th|n the so|ar ce|| |s |mpr|nted |nto a honeycomb pattern by the s|||con
nanodomes ||ke a waff|e |mpr|nted by the |ron. A th|n |ayer of batter |s spread on a
transparent, e|ectr|ca||y conduct|ve base. 1h|s batter |s most|y t|tan|a, a sem|-porous meta|
that |s a|so transparent to ||ght.
Next, they use the|r nano waff|e |ron to |mpr|nt the d|mp|es |nto the batter. 1hen |ayer on
some butter a ||ght-sens|t|ve dye wh|ch oozes |nto the d|mp|es and pores of the waff|e.
Last|y, some syrup |s added a |ayer of s||ver, wh|ch hardens a|most |mmed|ate|y.
When a|| those nanod|mp|es f||| up, the resu|t |s a pattern of nanodomes on the ||ght-ward
s|de of the s||ver. 1he s||ver acts as a m|rror, scatter|ng unabsorbed ||ght back |nto the dye
for another shot at co||ect|on, p|us, the ||ght |nteracts w|th the s||ver nanodomes to
produce p|asmon|c effects.
So|ar ce|| nanodomes and p|asmon|cs
Nanoshe|| wh|sper|ng ga||er|es
Cpt|ca| s|mu|at|ons of S|||con spher|ca| nanoshe||s
?an ?ao, !le ?ao, vl[ay krls naraslmhan, Zhlchao 8uan, Chong xle, Shanhul lan & ?l Cul, 8roadband llghL managemenL uslng low-C whlsperlng
gallery modes ln spherlcal nanoshells, naLure CommunlcaLlons, 3, dol:10.1038/ncomms1664, leb 7, 2012
Graphene
Craphene ls an alloLrope of carbon, whose
sLrucLure ls one-aLom-Lhlck planar sheeLs of sp
2
-
bonded carbon aLoms LhaL are densely packed ln
an aLom-scale honeycomb crysLal laLLlce.
So|ar ce||
nano cones
1he n-Lype nanoncones are made of
zlnc oxlde and serve as Lhe [uncLlon
framework and Lhe elecLron
conducLor.
1he p-Lype maLrlx ls made of
polycrysLalllne cadmlum Lellurlde
and serves as Lhe prlmary phoLon
absorber medlum and hole
conducLor.
key feaLures of Lhe solar maLerlal lnclude lLs unlque elecLrlc fleld dlsLrlbuLlon
LhaL achleves efflclenL charge LransporL, Lhe synLhesls of nanocones uslng
lnexpenslve proprleLary meLhods, and Lhe mlnlmlzaLlon of defecLs and volds ln
semlconducLors.
8ecause of efflclenL charge LransporL, Lhe new solar cell can LoleraLe defecLlve
maLerlals and reduce cosL ln fabrlcaLlng nexL-generaLlon solar cells.
nano plllar solar cell arrays
Cerlum Solar reacLor (Palle calLech)
Solar roll 30 sq meLers(AscenL)
Urban So|ar Canop|es
So|ar Ivy
1ens||e So|ar Structures
Chlna wlll consLrucL 3 CW of offshore wlnd
pro[ecLs by 2013 and 30 CW by 2030.
vesLa 7 MW wlnd Lurblne Chlna Clngdao 3 MW wlnd Lurblne
6orn ethano|
6e||u|os|c ethano|
w|nd-battery
turb|ne spac|ng
w|nd turb|nes
ground footpr|nt
8o|ar-battery
!"#? h0 b":-=1-&3 (%&; X)#1N1 >%-.N)81 .-# 9;;#)11%&/ 58%+"$)3 Q)"8$23 "&; L&)#/,3 9$+-1D2)#)KL&)#/, <#-/#"+3 4)D$0 -. 5%C%8 [ L&C%#-&+)&$"8 L&/%&))#%&/3 M$"&.-#; T&%C)#1%$,3 !"#:2 V3
@AA_3 2$$D6KKJJJ01$"&.-#;0);NK/#-NDK).+2Ke":-=1-&KLBVC(%&;M-8
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
llgures of MerlL
CreaL lalns area
1,200,000 ml2
rovlde 100 u.S. elecLrlclLy
400,000 2MW wlnd Lurblnes
laLform fooLprlnL
6 ml2
Large Wyomlng SLrlp Mlne
>6 ml2
1oLal Wlnd spaclng area
37,300 ml2
SLlll avallable for farmlng
and pralrle resLoraLlon
90+ (34,000 ml2)
CC
2
u.S. elecLrlclLy secLor
40
93 of u.S. LerresLrlal wlnd resources ln CreaL lalns
Y2) $2#)) 1N=S#)/%-&1 -. $2) F#)"$ <8"%&1 "#)6 7-#$2)#& F#)"$ <8"%&1 i !-&$"&"3 7-#$2 4"?-$"3 M-N$2
4"?-$"a 5)&$#"8 F#)"$ <8"%&1 i (,-+%&/3 7)=#"1?"3 5-8-#";-3 c"&1"1a M-N$2)#& F#)"$ <8"%&1 i
U?8"2-+"3 7)J !)G%:-3 "&; Y)G"10 OM-N#:)6 T0M0 >N#)"N -. L:-&-+%: 9&"8,1%1 IHHB3 TM49 IHH_ 5)&1N1 -. 9/#%:N8$N#)P
AlLhough agrlculLure conLrols abouL 70 of
CreaL lalns land area, lL conLrlbuLes 4 Lo
8 of Lhe Cross 8eglonal roducL.
Wlnd farms could enable one of Lhe
greaLesL economlc booms ln Amerlcan
hlsLory for CreaL lalns rural communlLles,
while also enabling one of worlds largest
resLoraLlons of naLlve pralrle ecosysLems
I5JK
Wind Farm RoyaIties CouId DoubIe
farm/ranch income with 30x Iess Iand area
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy
$0 $60
windpower royalty
$200 $0
farm commodity revenues
$50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
(%88%"+13 R-=)#$3 +96:#,= ,-; ?:(#=-,(&@# 5-#='A B9CC:A DC(&)-. *)= ,- 5-@&=)-7#-(,::A /)-.(=,&-#; %)=:;3 9D#%8 H3 @AAI3 2$$D6KKJJJ0&:%0-#/K
Wind RoyaIties SustainabIe source of
RuraI Farm and Ranch Income
*?5L ?0C0)D0
M5C/N ;DO;,:G
B,): L?5P,/;
1) 8esLorlng Lhe deep-rooLlng, naLlve pralrle grasslands LhaL absorb and sLore soll carbon
and sLop soll eroslon (hence generaLlng a poLenLlal revenue sLream from selllng CC
2
mlLlgaLlon credlLs ln Lhe emerglng global carbon Lradlng markeL),
PotentiaI Synergisms
2) 8e-lnLroduclng free-
ranglng blson lnLo Lhese
pralrle grasslands -- whlch
naLurally co-evolved
LogeLher for mlllennla --
generaLlng a poLenLlal
revenue sLream from
markeLlng hlgh-value
organlc, free-range beef.
1wo addlLlonal poLenLlal revenue sLreams ln CreaL lalns:
%&'( *(+! ,!'-&-!./ /(
0&-12/!3/+-44!+!$
5+(647/'
Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions
Tucuru| dam, raz||
8t. Lou|s VL, Ke||y 6A, 0uchem|n E, -. ($. 2000. Reservo|r surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a g|oba| est|mate. :,#+",-)"-
50: 775,
Net Lm|ss|ons from 8raz|||an keservo|rs compared w|th
Comb|ned Cyc|e Natura| Gas
M-N#:)6 <"$#%:? !:5N88,, Y#-D%:"8 Q,;#-D-J)# %1 " M%/&%.%:"&$ M-N#:) -. F#))&2-N1) F"1 L+%11%-&16 E&$)#%+ #)1D-&1) $- $2) E&$)#&"$%-&"8
Q,;#-D-J)# 911-:%"$%-&3 E&$)#&"$%-&"8 R%C)#1 7)$J-#?3 bN&) @AAj
0AH
Reservo|r
Area
(km
2
}
Cenerat|ng
6apac|ty
(Hw}
Q-
=
R
FB
Em|ss|ons:
hydro
(Ht60
2
-
eq|yr}
Em|ss|ons:
66 Cas
(Ht60
2
-
eq|yr}
Em|ss|ons
Rat|o
hydro|Cas
Tucuru|
=@SS# 4240 ! 8.0 2.22 @
6uru-
Una
"= 40 = 0.15 0.02 "NT
a|b|na
S<T# 250 <S .91 0.12 TU
koplow, uouglas, nuclear Subsldles
koplow, uouglas, nuclear Subsldles
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
V NUCLLAk
8||||on 5 2008 constant
C|v|||an Nuc|ear ower
(1948 2009)
vs.
So|ar hotovo|ta|cs
(197S-2009)
54.2
58S
Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds
AmounL of space requlred Lo LransporL Lhe same
number of passengers by car, bus or blcycle.
MuensLer lannlng Cfflce, AugusL 2001
Mob|||ty Serv|ces & Acccess
2 b||||on peop|e |ack safe water
912-? F";/%83 F8-="8 ("$)# M-8N$%-&1 $2#-N/2 Y):2&-8-/,3 9..-#;"=8) 1".) ;#%&?%&/ J"$)# .-# D--# :-++N&%$%)1 %& $2) ;)C)8-D%&/ :-N&$#%)13 <N#;N)
5"8N+)$3 IAK@]KAB3 JJJ0DN#;N)0);NK;DK)&)#/,K)C)&$1K/#)"$W8"?)1WJ"$)#WZN"8%$,W:-&.)#)&:)K:-&$)&$KF";/%8W<N#;N)WF8-="8SJ"$)#k@A@AAB0D;.
Lvery hour 200 ch||dren under S d|e from dr|nk|ng
d|rty water. Lvery year, 60 m||||on ch||dren reach
adu|thood stunted for good.
912-? F";/%83 F8-="8 ("$)# M-8N$%-&1 $2#-N/2 Y):2&-8-/,3 9..-#;"=8) 1".) ;#%&?%&/ J"$)# .-# D--# :-++N&%$%)1 %& $2) ;)C)8-D%&/ :-N&$#%)13 <N#;N)
5"8N+)$3 IAK@]KAB3 JJJ0DN#;N)0);NK;DK)&)#/,K)C)&$1K/#)"$W8"?)1WJ"$)#WZN"8%$,W:-&.)#)&:)K:-&$)&$KF";/%8W<N#;N)WF8-="8SJ"$)#k@A@AAB0D;.
4 b||||on annua| ep|sodes of d|arrhea exhaust
phys|ca| strength to perform |abor -- cost b||||ons of
do||ars |n |ost |ncome to the poor
912-? F";/%83 F8-="8 ("$)# M-8N$%-&1 $2#-N/2 Y):2&-8-/,3 9..-#;"=8) 1".) ;#%&?%&/ J"$)# .-# D--# :-++N&%$%)1 %& $2) ;)C)8-D%&/ :-N&$#%)13 <N#;N)
5"8N+)$3 IAK@]KAB3 JJJ0DN#;N)0);NK;DK)&)#/,K)C)&$1K/#)"$W8"?)1WJ"$)#WZN"8%$,W:-&.)#)&:)K:-&$)&$KF";/%8W<N#;N)WF8-="8SJ"$)#k@A@AAB0D;.
A new water d|s|nfector for the
developing worlds poor
MeeL /exceed WPC & LA crlLerla for
dlslnfecLlon
Lnergy efflclenL: 60W uv lamp dlslnfecLs 1
Lon per hour (1000 llLers, 264 gallons, or 1
m
3
)
Low cosL: 4 dlslnfecLs 1 Lon of waLer
8ellable, MaLure componenLs
Can LreaL unpressurlzed waLer
8apld LhroughpuL: 12 seconds
Low malnLenance: 4x per year
no overdose rlsk
lall-safe
uLSlCn C8l1L8lA
Dr Ashok Gadg||, |nventor
Waternea|th Int| dev|ce
912-? F";/%83 F8-="8 ("$)# M-8N$%-&1 $2#-N/2 Y):2&-8-/,3 9..-#;"=8) 1".) ;#%&?%&/ J"$)# .-# D--# :-++N&%$%)1 %& $2) ;)C)8-D%&/ :-N&$#%)13
<N#;N) 5"8N+)$3 IAK@]KAB3 JJJ0DN#;N)0);NK;DK)&)#/,K)C)&$1K/#)"$W8"?)1WJ"$)#WZN"8%$,W:-&.)#)&:)K:-&$)&$KF";/%8W<N#;N)WF8-="8S
J"$)#k@A@AAB0D;.
WHIs Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Cther 1reatment Cpt|ons
912-? F";/%83 F8-="8 ("$)# M-8N$%-&1 $2#-N/2 Y):2&-8-/,3 9..-#;"=8) 1".) ;#%&?%&/ J"$)# .-# D--# :-++N&%$%)1 %& $2) ;)C)8-D%&/ :-N&$#%)13 <N#;N)
5"8N+)$3 IAK@]KAB3 JJJ0DN#;N)0);NK;DK)&)#/,K)C)&$1K/#)"$W8"?)1WJ"$)#WZN"8%$,W:-&.)#)&:)K:-&$)&$KF";/%8W<N#;N)WF8-="8SJ"$)#k@A@AAB0D;.
Waternea|th Internat|ona|
1he sysLem effecLlvely purlfles and dlslnfecLs waLer conLamlnaLed wlLh a broad range of
paLhogens, lncludlng pollo and roLo vlruses, oocysLs, such as CrypLosporldlum and
Clardla. 1he sLandard sysLem ls deslgned Lo provlde 20 llLers of poLable waLer per
person, per day, for a communlLy of 3,000 people.
912-? F";/%83 F8-="8 ("$)# M-8N$%-&1 $2#-N/2 Y):2&-8-/,3 9..-#;"=8) 1".) ;#%&?%&/ J"$)# .-# D--# :-++N&%$%)1 %& $2) ;)C)8-D%&/ :-N&$#%)13 <N#;N)
5"8N+)$3 IAK@]KAB3 JJJ0DN#;N)0);NK;DK)&)#/,K)C)&$1K/#)"$W8"?)1WJ"$)#WZN"8%$,W:-&.)#)&:)K:-&$)&$KF";/%8W<N#;N)WF8-="8SJ"$)#k@A@AAB0D;.
us|ness mode| reaches underserved by |nc|ud|ng f|nanc|ng for the purchase and |nsta||at|on of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay |oans and to cover the expenses of
operat|ng and ma|nta|n|ng the equ|pment and fac|||ty.
6ommun|ty members h|red to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these micro-utilities, thus
creat|ng emp|oyment and bu||d|ng capac|ty, as we|| as generat|ng entrepreneur|a| opportun|t|es
for |oca| res|dents to prov|de re|ated serv|ces, such as sa|es and d|str|but|on of the pur|f|ed water
to out|y|ng areas.
And because the fac|||t|es are owned by the commun|t|es |n wh|ch they are |nsta||ed, the user
fees become attract|ve sources of revenue for the commun|ty after |oans have been repa|d.
Waternea|th Internat|ona|
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