TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Andrew Maxfield
DATE: July 29, 2014
RE: Pryor Leads in Arkansas

Mark Pryor has opened up a lead in the Arkansas Senate race, according to our recent survey.
Senator Pryor has the support of 45% of likely 2014 voters versus 39% for Congressman Tom
Cotton, 3% for Libertarian candidate Nathan LaFrance, and 2% for Green Party candidate
Mark Swaney.

The race up to this point has been close, but Pryor has not trailed Cotton in any poll we’ve
conducted this year.

The results further suggest that the vote ceiling for Senator Pryor is higher than Tom Cotton’s.
Besides the 45% now supporting Pryor, an additional 8% of voters say there is “a fair chance”
they might support Pryor – for a total prospective vote of 53%. This is compared to a vote
ceiling for Tom Cotton that is under 50%. Added to Cotton’s current vote share of 39% are an
additional 9% of voters who say there is “a fair chance” they might support Cotton. This
provides Congressman Cotton with a total prospective vote of only 48%.

The election is far from over, but Mark Pryor has to be considered the favorite to win in
Arkansas.

The Arkansas survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research for the Pryor for Senate
campaign among a cross-section of 807 likely voters by telephone from July 7-10, 2014. The
survey was conducted using live interviewers reaching landlines and cell phones. The results
are subject to a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 3.5%.

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