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Scotland on the Eve of the Independence Referendum

Washington, 03/09/2014



Dr J an Eichhorn
Chancellors Fellow | University of Edinburgh

J an.Eichhorn@ed.ac.uk


*several figures reproduced from ScotCen, AQMeN and d|part materials
Background and study details



The situation at the beginning of September 2014



What counts for the voters?



Who votes on 18 September?



Was it a good idea to reduce the voting age to 16?
Structure
The background
Should Scotland be an independent country?
18 September 2014
Study background
SSA since 1999 (post devolution)

Face-to-face survey (CAPI)

Representative sample with 1200-1500 participants

Extensive pilot phase and cognitive interviewing

Multiple weighting procedures

2012: 40 questions
2013: 80 questions
2014: 30 questions (May J uly)

Partners: J ohn Curtice, Lindsay Paterson, Rachel Ormston

www.whatscotlandthinks.org


Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSA)
Target survey of 14-17 year olds (April/May 2013 and 2014)

Reason: reduction of the voting age

Questions based on SSA for comparison

Pilot with 110 school students adjustment of 1/3 of questions

Consultation with MRUK to optimise telephone survey

Random-Digit-Dialling (RDD) with 1000 participants

Approval by one parent

Weighting by educational attainment of parents


Development of teaching materials: https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/Resources/IndyRef/TeachingMaterials


Attitudes of young people
The situation at the beginning of
September 2014
Should Scotland be an independent country?
The state of the polls
As of: 01/09/2014 80 polls
Should Scotland be an independent country?
The state of the polls
As of: 01/09/2014 80 polls
38%
39%
39%
42%
43%
44%
62%
61%
61%
58%
57%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-May 2013 Jul-Sep 2013 Oct-Dec 2013 Jan-Mar 2014 Apr-Jun 2014 Jul-Aug 2014
YES
NO
Should Scotland be an independent country?
The state of August polls
As of: 29/08/2014 9 polls
47%
43% 43%
39%
42%
44%
48%
43%
47%
53%
57% 57%
61%
58%
56%
52%
57%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Yes
No
Constitutional preferences since devolution
The long-term perspective (SSA)
Independent of UK and outside the EU
Independence
Independent of the UK, but inside the EU
Part of the United Kingdom, with an elected parliament with some
tax raising powers
Devolution
Part of the United Kingdom, with an elected parliament without
tax raising powers
Part of the United Kingdom, without an elected parliament No Devolution
Constitutional preferences since devolution
The long-term perspective (SSA)
29%
31%
28%
31%
27%
34%
37%
33%
25%
30%
25%
33%
25%
31%
36%
61%
56%
63%
55%
59%
48% 48%
58%
66%
61%
64%
61%
64%
59%
56%
10%
12%
9%
14% 14%
18%
15%
10%
9% 9%
11%
6%
11%
10%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Independence Devolution No devolution
Scotlands share of public spending
59
48
47
49
36
38
38
42 42
40
43
27
36
34
32
37
39
41
39
39
42
37
10 10
11
10
16
14 14
11
13
12 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
00 01 03 05 07 09 10 11 12 13 14
Less than fair Pretty much fair More than fair
The long-term perspective (SSA)
38
42
38
30
36
27
28
23
29
28
32
33
22
16
18
24 24 25 24
26
22 22
20
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
99 00 01 03 05 07 09 10 11 12 13 14
England's Scotland's
Who benefits more from the union?
The long-term perspective (SSA)
What counts for the voters?
I ts the economy, stupid
Expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
92
83
39
10
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
%

"
Y
E
S
"

v
o
t
e
s

I ts the economy, stupid
Expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
78
46
32
10
4
73
45
20
4
3
88
62
23
7
5
88
81
35
11
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
%

s
u
p
p
o
r
t
i
n
g

i
n
d
e
p
e
n
d
e
n
c
e

2011
2012
2013
2014
The ideal
Preferred option for the governance of Scotland
2013 2014
The Scottish Parliament should decide everything for Scotland 31 41
The UK government should decide about foreign affairs and defence; the
Scottish Parliament about everything else
32 29
The UK government should decide about foreign affairs and defence,
taxation and welfare; the Scottish Parliament about everything else
25 22
The UK government should make all decisions for Scotland 8 6
Dont know/Refused 4 3
The ideal is not always acted upon
Voting intention of independence-sympathisers
55
56
11
12
34
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014
Undecided
No
Yes
17% of all respondents
The ideal has to be considered realistic
Voting intention of independence-sympathisers by expectations about the
economy in an independent Scotland
35
4
40
20
12
21
4
22
0
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
YES NO/Unentschlossen
A lot better
A little better
No difference
A little worse
A lot worse
Success for Yes Focus in social inequality
Expectations of about inequality after independence
46
37
22
20
11
74
53
27
23
17
78
79
35
13
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
2012
2013
2014
Scotlands role in the world
Expectations about Scotlands Voice in the World
64
37
18
9
8
64
31
17
8
1
74
47
19
12
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
A lot stronger A little stronger No difference A little weaker A lot weaker
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Expectations about the development of the economy
2. Expectations about Scotlands voice in the world
3. Expectations about the pride of Scots
4. Expectations about the development of inequality in Scotland

5. National identity
6. Evaluation of having enough personnel to govern Scotland
7. Evaluation of the ability to bail out banks
8. Expectation about the development of own finances

9. Being male
10. Pensions as Scotland-only or UK-shared
11. Age (65+ No)
12. Political positioning (Left No)

The most important factors influencing voting intention
National identity
32%
36%
31%
32%
26%
27%
28%
23%
25%
23%
35%
30%
34% 32%
29%
31%
32%
30%
29%
26%
22% 24%
22%
21%
27%
26%
23%
30%
29%
32%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
4%
5% 5%
4%
5%
4%
3%
4%
5%
6% 4%
5%
6%
6%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014
Scottish, not British More Scottish than British Equally Scottish and British
More British than Scottish British, not Scottish
National identity
53%
32%
12%
11%
9%
46%
23%
11%
12%
4%
51%
34%
14%
8%
6%
60%
43%
11% 11%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Scottish, not British More Scottish than
British
Equally Scottish
and British
More British than
Scottish
British, not Scottish
2011
2012
2013
2014
Independence support by national identity
The EU debate dominated the media ...
Should/would an independent Scotland become a member of the European Union?
but is not decisive for the vote
If Scotland became independent, should it be a member of the European Union?
YES (%) NO (%)
Definitely yes 31 36
Probably yes 34 34
Probably no 13 13
Definitely no 13 13
Dont know 10 10
Scots do not love the EU
What should Great Britannia's long term strategy towards the EU be?
10%
11%
14%
17%
36%
29%
36%
41%
21%
24%
21%
23%
14%
19%
13%
7%
9%
8%
5%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2003 2005 2014
Work for the establishment of the
European Government
Remain the EU, and increase the EU's
competencies
Leave things as they are
Remain in the EU, but reduce the
EU's competencies
Leave the EU
Not a vote winner either
Nuclear weapons?
Who votes on 18 September?
High voter participation is expected
SSA
2013 2014
Certain to vote (10) 62% 74%
Likely to vote (6-10) 81% 87%
For comparison
2010 Westminster 2011 Scottish Parliament
Voter turnout 64% 50%
A small advantage for Yes
90
84
71
95
87
76
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yes No Undecided Yes No Undecided
2013 2014
0-5
6-10
Voting turnout likelihood by voting intention
Activation of voters
Voting participation in 2011 Scottish Parliament elections by age group
29
50
55
71
79
81
71
50
45
29
21
19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Did not vote
Voted
Voting participation likelihood by age group
82
78
89
85
91
90
18
22
11
15
9
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
0-5
6-10
Activation of voters
Activation of voters
Reduction in undecideds including (disproportinately for)


Persons of lower social occupational class

Persons with lower socio-economic status

Those less politically interested

Persons who do not feel close to any political party


Not completely accounting for difference in undecideds

Disadvantaging of people commonly not engaged in the political process

Who are the ones still undecided?


SSA 2014 (May-July)
33% Undecided
Of which
28% YES leaning 29% NO leaning 42% No particular leaning
12% fully undecided
Who are the undecideds?


% Undecided 2014 (2013 Value)
Sex
Women Men
33 (39) 26 (30)
Party affinity
Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP None
11 (11) 27 (36) 26 (15) 29 (35) 37 (48)
Political
interest
A great deal Quite a lot Some Not very much None at all
21 (20) 20 (30) 30 (36) 38 (39) 44 (47)
Knowledge of
referendum
A great deal Quite a lot Some Not very much None at all
2 (19) 14 (17) 29 (32) 46 (49) 39 (48)
Influence on
own life
A great deal Quite a lot Some Not very much None at all
12 (16) 22 (25) 32 (39) 41 (47) 43 (37)
Not decisive: Age, occupational social class
Was it a good idea to reduce the
voting age to 16?
Under 18-year old voters
Yes No Undecided (%)
2013 23 58 19
2014 29 52 19
2013 28 72
2014 36 64
Should Scotland be an Independent Country?
Political interest
13 13
46
23
34
32
20
8
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
14-17 18+
A lot
Quite a bit
Some
Not very much
Not at all
Voting turnout likelihood

2013 (%)
2014 (%)
(elibile voters only)
Very unlikely 7 6
Rather unlikely 6 6
Neither likely nor unlikely 19 15
Rather likely 26 21
Very likely 40 51
Dont know 2 2
The most decisive factor.

A lot better A little better No difference A little worse A lot worse
YES 92 65 33 3 1
NO 4 13 39 89 95
UNDECIDED 4 22 28 8 4
Expectations about the economy in an independent Scotland
Differences to adults?
National
identity
2014 (%)

Scottish, not British 15
More Scottish than British 38
Equally British and Scottish 39
More British than Scottish 5
British, not Scottish 2
British EU
strategy
2014 (%)

To leave the EU 5
To remain in the EU, but to reduce the EUs powers 22
To leave things as they are 44
To remain in the EU, and to increase the EUs powers 19
To work for the establishment of a European government 4
Thank you for your attention

Your questions, please.
Dr J an Eichhorn

J an.Eichhorn@ed.ac.uk | Email
@eichhorn_jan | Twitter

www.politischepartizipation.de | d|part
www.sps.ed.ac.uk/staff/social_policy/jan_eichhorn | University of Edinburgh

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