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Economic Dashboard
20% $16,000
USA Nom inal and Real GDP
15% $14,000
$13,316.5
$12,000
2.64%
$10,000
Annual %∆
5%
0.44%
$8,000
0%
'29 '34 '39 '44 '49 '54 '59 '64 '69 '74 '79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 $6,000
-2.54%
-5%
$4,000
-10% $2,000
-15% $0
Quarterly
Date %∆
10.0% 6.0%
Real GDP Grow th
03/31/07 0.30%
8.0% 06/30/07 0.79%
4.0%
09/30/07 0.89%
6.0%
12/31/07 0.53%
4.0% 2.0% 03/31/08 -0.18%
Annualized Q.%Δ
Annual %Δ
2.0% 06/30/08 0.36%
0.0% 09/30/08 -0.68%
0.0%
12/31/08 -1.37%
Mar-00
Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-05
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Sep-01
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-00
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-07
Sep-09
Jul-07
40%
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jul-09
Oct-04
Jan-05
Oct-05
Oct-06
Jan-07
Oct-09
Jan-04
Jan-06
Oct-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-05
Apr-04
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
35%
-0.4% Monthly ∆% LEI ISM PMI Index Chicago PMI 35%
30%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -0.8% 30%
ISM PMI Index Biz Act. Index
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
Jan-04 Jan-04
Apr-04 Apr-04
Jul-04 Jul-04
Oct-04 Oct-04
Jan-05
Jan-05
Apr-05
Apr-05 Yr %∆
Jul-05
Jul-05
Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF
Oct-05
Oct-05
-26%
-22%
-18%
-14%
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
18%
Jan-06
Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF
Jan-06
Apr-06 Jan-04
Apr-06
Jul-06
Jul-06 Apr-04
Oct-06
Oct-06 Jan-07
Jul-04
Jan-07 Apr-07
Yr% ∆ of NOA_MNF
Jan-08 Apr-08
Jul-08
Apr-05
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jul-08 Jul-05
Jan-09
Oct-08
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-06
0%
5%
Jul-09
-5%
10%
15%
20%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
Apr-06
Yr %∆
Shipments
Jul-06
Oct-06
Mo %∆
Mo %∆
Jan-07
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
Jan-04 Jan-04 Apr-07
Mar-04 Apr-04
May-04
Jul-04 Jul-07
Jul-04
Sep-04 Oct-04
No v-04
Oct-07
Jan-05
Jan-0 5
Mar-05 Apr-05 Jan-08
May-05 Jul-05
Jul-05 Apr-08
Oct-05
Sep-05
Nov-05 Jan-06
Jul-08
Jan-0 6
Apr-06
National Output & Inventories
Mar-06
Factory Orders and Shipments
May-06
Jul-06 Oct-06
Sep-06 Jan-09
Jan-07
No v-0 6
Jan-07 Apr-07
Apr-09
Mar-07 Jul-07
May-07
Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-09
Yr% ∆ of SHA_MNF
Sep-07 Jan-08
Nov-0 7 Oct-09
Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF Ex-Trans
Apr-08
Jan-0 8
Mar-08 Jul-08
Shipments for All Manufacturing
May-08
Oct-08
Jul-08
SH for All Manufacturing and All Manufacturing Ex-Transportation
Sep-08 Jan-09
Nov-08 Apr-09
Jan-0 9
Jul-09
Mar-09
May-09
0%
5%
Jul-09
-5%
10%
15%
20%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
Sep-09
Yr %∆
National Output & Inventories
Durable Goods Orders
10% New Orders for Durable Goods 20% 4% Shipments for Durable Goods 15%
15% 10%
7%
0.8%
2%
10% 5%
4% 5%
0% 0%
1% 0%
Mo %∆
-5%
Mo %∆
Yr %∆
Yr %∆
-5%
-2% -10%
-2% -1.1% -10%
-15% -15%
-5% -4%
-20% -20%
-8%
-25% -6% -25%
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jul-09
Apr-06
Apr-05
Oct-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-05
Oct-07
Oct-09
-11% -30%
Jul-05
Jul-09
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-07
New Orders and Shipments for Non-defense Capital Goods Ex-Air (NO proxy for business investments and SH proxy for GDP
6% business equipment component) 25%
4% 20%
2% 15%
10%
0%
5%
-2%
0%
Yr %∆
Mo %∆
-4%
-5%
-6%
-10%
-8%
-15%
-10% -20%
-12% -25%
-14% -30%
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-09
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Mo% ∆ of NO_NDFCG Ex-Air Mo% ∆ of SH_NDFCG Ex-Air
Yr% ∆ of NO_NDFCG Ex-Air Yr% ∆ of SH_NDFCG Ex-Air
I.C. 4-
800,000 700,000 Week
L-T Initial Claims S.A Initial Claims S.A. I.C. 4-Week MA Week
Ending
650,000 MA
700,000
600,000 5/30/2009 632,250
6/6/2009 622,750
600,000 550,000
6/13/2009 616,750
500,000 6/20/2009 618,000
500,000
450,000 6/27/2009 616,000
400,000 400,000 7/4/2009 607,000
7/11/2009 585,000
350,000 7/18/2009 567,250
300,000
300,000 7/25/2009 560,250
200,000 250,000 8/1/2009 556,500
8/8/2009 565,750
1/6/2007
3/6/2007
9/6/2007
5/6/2008
7/6/2008
9/6/2008
1/6/2009
3/6/2009
9/6/2009
5/6/2007
7/6/2007
1/6/2008
3/6/2008
5/6/2009
7/6/2009
11/6/2007
11/6/2008
100,000 8/15/2009 571,000
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 8/22/2009 567,250
8/29/2009 572,750
9/5/2009 571,750
9/12/2009 564,500
9/19/2009 554,500
9/26/2009 548,250
11.0% 10-yr U.S. Unemployment Rate
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-08
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-09
500
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Apr-06
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
(500)
(1,000)
(1,500)
8% 33.8
Avg.Hourly Earnings - Mo % ∆
33.6 0.45%
0 7%
33.4
0.35%
hours
(1,000) 32.8 0.15%
4%
32.6
0.05%
(1,500) 3% 32.4
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jan-06
Jan-09
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-08
Apr-09
Apr-04
Apr-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
32.2 -0.05%
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-05
Jan-07
Apr-04
Oct-05
Apr-06
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
ABS ∆ in Pop. Employed Unemployment rate Avg. Weekly Hours - Total Private Hourly Earnings Mo. %∆
1% 1%
Y early %∆
Indices Value
1% 80
-1%
Jan-05
Jan-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Oct-07
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Oct-05
Jan-08
Jul-09
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
-1%
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
0%
-3% 70
-3%
-1% -5% 60
-5%
-2% -7% -7% 50
-9% -9%
-3% 40
-11% -11%
M/M %∆ Y/Y %∆ 30
-4% -13% -13%
J an-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
J an-09
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
J ul-08
Jul-09
Oc t-05
Oc t-06
Oc t-07
A pr-05
A pr-07
Oct-08
A pr-06
Apr-08
A pr-09
-15% 20
YonY %∆ Tot. Retail Sales CCI (Umich) Cons. Sent. Index
1,750 5,500
800 5,000
1,250 4,500
600
4,000
750 400 3,500
200 3,000
250
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-04
Jan-00
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
New Home Sales Existing Home Sales
Auth. Building Permits Housing Units Started
Yearly ∆%
Yearly ∆%
Month ∆%
Month ∆%
Jul-09
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
0.0%
-1.0% 0.0% -1.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
-4.0%
-2.0% -2.0%
-2.0% -6.0%
CPI Mo%Δ Core CPI CPI Yr%Δ Core-CPI Yr%Δ PPI Mo%Δ Core-PPI Mo%Δ PPI Yr%Δ Core-PPI Yr%Δ
-3.0% -3.0% -3.0% -8.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Jul-06
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
CPI PPI
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
1/5/1962 1/5/1962
1/5/1964 1/5/1964
1/5/1966 1/5/1966
1/5/1968 1/5/1968
1/5/1970 1/5/1970
1/5/1972 1/5/1972
1/5/1974 1/5/1974
1/5/1976 1/5/1976
1/5/1978 1/5/1978
1/5/1980 1/5/1980
1/5/1982 1/5/1982
1/5/1984 1/5/1984
1/5/1986 1/5/1986
1/5/1988 1/5/1988
1/5/1990 1/5/1990
1/5/1992 1/5/1992
1/5/1994 1/5/1994
1/5/1996 1/5/1996
1/5/1998 1/5/1998
1/5/2000 1/5/2000
1/5/2002 1/5/2002
1/5/2004 1/5/2004
1/5/2006 1/5/2006
1/5/2008 1/5/2008
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1/5/1962 1/5/1962
1/5/1964 1/5/1964
1/5/1966 1/5/1966
1/5/1968
1/5/1968
1/5/1970
1/5/1970
1/5/1972
1/5/1972
1/5/1974
1/5/1974
1/5/1976
1/5/1976
1/5/1978
US Treasuries Yield (Nominal)
1/5/1978
1/5/1980
1/5/1980
1/5/1982
1/5/1982
1/5/1992
Weekly 30YR UST Yield (Nominal)
1/5/1994
1/5/1994
1/5/1996
1/5/1996 1/5/1998
1/5/1998
1/5/2000
1/5/2000 1/5/2002
1/5/2002 1/5/2004
1/5/2004 1/5/2006
1/5/2006 1/5/2008
1/5/2008
US Treasuries Yield (Nominal)
6.00
Weekly US Treasuries Yield Curve
5.00
4.00 12/4/2009
11/6/2009
6/5/2009
3.00 12/5/2008
12/7/2007
2.00 12/1/2006
12/2/2005
1.00
0.00
3MO 6MO 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 7YR 10YR 20YR 30YR
1yr/10yr spread
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1/5/62
1/5/65
1/5/71
1/5/74
1/5/83
1/5/86
1/5/95
1/5/98
1/5/07
1/5/68
1/5/77
1/5/80
1/5/89
1/5/92
1/5/01
1/5/04
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
1yr/10yr spread