U.S.

Economic Dashboard

11/02/21 Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

 National Output & Inventories
USA GDP

20% $16,000
USA Nom inal and Real GDP
15% $14,000
$13,316.5
$12,000

GDP in Billions of USD

10%

2.64%
$10,000
Annual %∆

5%

0.44%
$8,000
0%
'29 '34 '39 '44 '49 '54 '59 '64 '69 '74 '79 '84 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 $6,000

-2.54%
-5%
$4,000

-10% $2,000

-15% $0

Annual Real GDP %∆ Nominal GDP Real GDP

Quarterly
Date %∆
10.0% 6.0%
Real GDP Grow th
03/31/07 0.30%
8.0% 06/30/07 0.79%
4.0%
09/30/07 0.89%
6.0%
12/31/07 0.53%
4.0% 2.0% 03/31/08 -0.18%
Annualized Q.%Δ

Annual %Δ
2.0% 06/30/08 0.36%
0.0% 09/30/08 -0.68%
0.0%
12/31/08 -1.37%
Mar-00

Mar-04

Mar-06
Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-05

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-01

Sep-04

Sep-06

Sep-08

Sep-10
Sep-00

Sep-02

Sep-03

Sep-05

Sep-07

Sep-09

-2.0% -2.0% 03/31/09 -1.65%

-4.0%
06/30/09 -0.18%
-4.0% 09/30/09 0.69%
-6.0%
12/31/09 0.69%
Annualized Q. %∆ Annual %∆
-8.0% -6.0% 03/31/10 0.74%
06/30/10 0.64%
09/30/10 0.74%
12/31/10 0.79%

11/02/21 Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

 National Output & Inventories
ISM and PMI Indices

70% 1.6% 70%

ISM Reports - Manuf. and Business Activity Indices
ISM Index, Chicago PMI and Monthly ∆% LEI
65% 65%
1.2%
60% 60%
55% 0.8%
55%
50%
0.4% 50%
45%
45%
40% 0.0%

Jul-07
40%

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-08

Jul-09
Oct-04
Jan-05

Oct-05

Oct-06
Jan-07

Oct-09
Jan-04

Jan-06

Oct-07
Jan-08

Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-05
Apr-04

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
35%
-0.4% Monthly ∆% LEI ISM PMI Index Chicago PMI 35%
30%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -0.8% 30%
ISM PMI Index Biz Act. Index

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11/02/21
Mo %∆
Mo %∆

-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%

-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
Jan-04 Jan-04

Apr-04 Apr-04

Jul-04 Jul-04

Oct-04 Oct-04

Jan-05
Jan-05
Apr-05
Apr-05 Yr %∆
Jul-05
Jul-05

Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF
Oct-05
Oct-05

-26%
-22%
-18%
-14%
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
18%

Jan-06

Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF
Jan-06
Apr-06 Jan-04
Apr-06
Jul-06
Jul-06 Apr-04
Oct-06
Oct-06 Jan-07
Jul-04
Jan-07 Apr-07

Yr% ∆ of NOA_MNF

Mo% ∆ of NOA_MNF Ex-Trans

New Orders for All Manufacturing
Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-04
Jul-07 Oct-07

Oct-07 Jan-08 Jan-05

Jan-08 Apr-08

Jul-08
Apr-05
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jul-08 Jul-05
Jan-09
Oct-08
Apr-09

NO for All Manufacturing and All Manufacturing Ex-Transportation

Oct-05
New Orders

Jan-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-06
0%
5%

Jul-09
-5%
10%
15%
20%

-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%

Apr-06
Yr %∆
Shipments

Jul-06

Oct-06
Mo %∆
Mo %∆
Jan-07
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%

0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%

-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
Jan-04 Jan-04 Apr-07
Mar-04 Apr-04
May-04
Jul-04 Jul-07
Jul-04
Sep-04 Oct-04
No v-04
Oct-07
Jan-05
Jan-0 5
Mar-05 Apr-05 Jan-08
May-05 Jul-05
Jul-05 Apr-08
Oct-05
Sep-05
Nov-05 Jan-06
Jul-08
Jan-0 6
Apr-06
National Output & Inventories

Mar-06
Factory Orders and Shipments

Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF Jul-06 Oct-08

Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF

May-06
Jul-06 Oct-06
Sep-06 Jan-09
Jan-07

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

Manufacturing: New Orders and Shipment

No v-0 6
Jan-07 Apr-07
Apr-09
Mar-07 Jul-07
May-07
Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-09
Yr% ∆ of SHA_MNF

Sep-07 Jan-08
Nov-0 7 Oct-09
Mo% ∆ of SHA_MNF Ex-Trans

Apr-08
Jan-0 8
Mar-08 Jul-08
Shipments for All Manufacturing

May-08
Oct-08
Jul-08
SH for All Manufacturing and All Manufacturing Ex-Transportation

Sep-08 Jan-09
Nov-08 Apr-09
Jan-0 9
Jul-09
Mar-09
May-09
0%
5%

Jul-09
-5%
10%
15%
20%

-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%

Sep-09
Yr %∆
 National Output & Inventories
Durable Goods Orders
10% New Orders for Durable Goods 20% 4% Shipments for Durable Goods 15%

15% 10%
7%

0.8%
2%
10% 5%
4% 5%
0% 0%
1% 0%

Mo %∆
-5%
Mo %∆

Yr %∆

Yr %∆
-5%
-2% -10%
-2% -1.1% -10%
-15% -15%
-5% -4%
-20% -20%
-8%
-25% -6% -25%

Jan-07

Jan-09
Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jul-09
Apr-06
Apr-05

Oct-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09
Oct-05

Oct-07

Oct-09
-11% -30%
Jul-05

Jul-09
Jan-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09
Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09
Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-08

Apr-09
Apr-07

Mo% ∆ of SHDG Yr% ∆ of SHDG

Mo% ∆ of NODG Yr% ∆ of NODG

New Orders and Shipments for Non-defense Capital Goods Ex-Air (NO proxy for business investments and SH proxy for GDP
6% business equipment component) 25%

4% 20%

2% 15%

10%
0%
5%
-2%
0%

Yr %∆
Mo %∆

-4%
-5%
-6%
-10%
-8%
-15%

-10% -20%

-12% -25%

-14% -30%
Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jul-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-09
Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09
Mo% ∆ of NO_NDFCG Ex-Air Mo% ∆ of SH_NDFCG Ex-Air
Yr% ∆ of NO_NDFCG Ex-Air Yr% ∆ of SH_NDFCG Ex-Air

11/02/21 Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

 Employment Indicators

I.C. 4-
800,000 700,000 Week
L-T Initial Claims S.A Initial Claims S.A. I.C. 4-Week MA Week
Ending
650,000 MA
700,000
600,000 5/30/2009 632,250
6/6/2009 622,750
600,000 550,000
6/13/2009 616,750
500,000 6/20/2009 618,000
500,000
450,000 6/27/2009 616,000
400,000 400,000 7/4/2009 607,000
7/11/2009 585,000
350,000 7/18/2009 567,250
300,000
300,000 7/25/2009 560,250
200,000 250,000 8/1/2009 556,500
8/8/2009 565,750

1/6/2007
3/6/2007

9/6/2007

5/6/2008
7/6/2008
9/6/2008

1/6/2009
3/6/2009

9/6/2009
5/6/2007
7/6/2007

1/6/2008
3/6/2008

5/6/2009
7/6/2009
11/6/2007

11/6/2008
100,000 8/15/2009 571,000
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 8/22/2009 567,250
8/29/2009 572,750
9/5/2009 571,750
9/12/2009 564,500
9/19/2009 554,500
9/26/2009 548,250
11.0% 10-yr U.S. Unemployment Rate
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-05

Jan-08
Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-09

11/02/21 Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

 Employment Indicators

1,000 Monthly Change in Number of People Employed

500

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
Apr-06
Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09
(500)

(1,000)

(1,500)

ABS ∆ in Pop. Employed 12 per. Mov. Avg. (ABS ∆ in Pop. Employed)

1,000 Monthly Change in # of People Employed and Unemployment Rate 10%

34.2 Workweek and Hourly Earnings Data 0.65%
9% 34.0
500 0.55%
In thousands of people

8% 33.8

Avg.Hourly Earnings - Mo % ∆
33.6 0.45%
0 7%
33.4
0.35%

Avg. Workweek Level - # of

(500) 6% 33.2
0.25%
5% 33.0

hours
(1,000) 32.8 0.15%
4%
32.6
0.05%
(1,500) 3% 32.4
Jul-06

Jul-07
Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jan-06

Jan-09
Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-08

Apr-09
Apr-04

Apr-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

32.2 -0.05%

Jul-06

Jul-08
Jan-04

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jul-09
Jan-05

Jan-07
Apr-04

Oct-05

Apr-06

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09
Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07
ABS ∆ in Pop. Employed Unemployment rate Avg. Weekly Hours - Total Private Hourly Earnings Mo. %∆

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 Consumer Spending, Confidence & Sentiment

4% 11% Consum er Confidence, Sentim ent and Retail Sales 120

Retail Sales 9%
9% 110
3% 7%
7%
5% 100
2% 5%
3%

Y/Y Retalil Sales %∆

3% 90
M onthly %∆

1% 1%

Y early %∆

Indices Value
1% 80
-1%

Jan-05

Jan-06

Oct-06
Jan-07

Oct-07

Oct-08
Jan-09

Oct-09
Oct-05

Jan-08

Jul-09
Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08
-1%

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
0%
-3% 70
-3%
-1% -5% 60
-5%
-2% -7% -7% 50
-9% -9%
-3% 40
-11% -11%
M/M %∆ Y/Y %∆ 30
-4% -13% -13%
J an-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

J an-09
Jan-05

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

J ul-08

Jul-09
Oc t-05

Oc t-06

Oc t-07
A pr-05

A pr-07

Oct-08
A pr-06

Apr-08

A pr-09
-15% 20
YonY %∆ Tot. Retail Sales CCI (Umich) Cons. Sent. Index

2,750 1,600 7,500

Residential Construction USA Residential Sales
1,400 7,000
2,250 6,500
1,200
6,000

NewHomes (K's of Units)

Existing Homes (K's of Units)

1,000
Thousands

1,750 5,500
800 5,000
1,250 4,500
600
4,000
750 400 3,500
200 3,000
250
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jul-04
Jan-00

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06
Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
New Home Sales Existing Home Sales
Auth. Building Permits Housing Units Started

11/02/21 Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

 Prices & Productivity

3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 12.0%

CPI - Monthly and Yearly ∆% PPI - Monthly and Yearly ∆%
5.0% 10.0%
2.0% 2.0%
8.0%
4.0%
6.0%
1.0% 3.0% 1.0%
4.0%
2.0%

Yearly ∆%
Yearly ∆%

Month ∆%
Month ∆%

0.0% 0.0% 2.0%

1.0%
Jul-07

Jul-09

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jul-06

Jul-08
Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09
0.0%
-1.0% 0.0% -1.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
-4.0%
-2.0% -2.0%
-2.0% -6.0%
CPI Mo%Δ Core CPI CPI Yr%Δ Core-CPI Yr%Δ PPI Mo%Δ Core-PPI Mo%Δ PPI Yr%Δ Core-PPI Yr%Δ
-3.0% -3.0% -3.0% -8.0%

12.0% Yearly Change - CPI vs. PPI

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%
2.0%

0.0%

Jul-06
Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%
CPI PPI

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11/02/21
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00

0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
1/5/1962 1/5/1962
1/5/1964 1/5/1964
1/5/1966 1/5/1966
1/5/1968 1/5/1968
1/5/1970 1/5/1970
1/5/1972 1/5/1972
1/5/1974 1/5/1974
1/5/1976 1/5/1976
1/5/1978 1/5/1978
1/5/1980 1/5/1980
1/5/1982 1/5/1982
1/5/1984 1/5/1984
1/5/1986 1/5/1986
1/5/1988 1/5/1988
1/5/1990 1/5/1990
1/5/1992 1/5/1992

Weekly 10YR UST Yield (Nominal)

Weekly 3MO UST Yield (Nominal)

1/5/1994 1/5/1994
1/5/1996 1/5/1996
1/5/1998 1/5/1998
1/5/2000 1/5/2000
1/5/2002 1/5/2002
1/5/2004 1/5/2004
1/5/2006 1/5/2006
1/5/2008 1/5/2008
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00

0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00

0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00

1/5/1962 1/5/1962

1/5/1964 1/5/1964

1/5/1966 1/5/1966
1/5/1968
1/5/1968
1/5/1970
1/5/1970
1/5/1972
1/5/1972
1/5/1974
1/5/1974
1/5/1976
1/5/1976
1/5/1978
US Treasuries Yield (Nominal)

1/5/1978
1/5/1980
1/5/1980
1/5/1982
1/5/1982

Defiance Capital Management - US Economic Dashboard - Copyright 2009.

1/5/1984
1/5/1984
1/5/1986
1/5/1986
1/5/1988
1/5/1988
1/5/1990
1/5/1990
1/5/1992
Weekly 1YR UST Yield (Nominal)

1/5/1992
Weekly 30YR UST Yield (Nominal)

1/5/1994
1/5/1994
1/5/1996
1/5/1996 1/5/1998
1/5/1998
1/5/2000
1/5/2000 1/5/2002
1/5/2002 1/5/2004
1/5/2004 1/5/2006
1/5/2006 1/5/2008
1/5/2008
 US Treasuries Yield (Nominal)

6.00
Weekly US Treasuries Yield Curve

5.00

4.00 12/4/2009
11/6/2009
6/5/2009
3.00 12/5/2008
12/7/2007
2.00 12/1/2006
12/2/2005

1.00

0.00
3MO 6MO 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 7YR 10YR 20YR 30YR

1yr/10yr spread

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
1/5/62

1/5/65

1/5/71

1/5/74

1/5/83

1/5/86

1/5/95

1/5/98

1/5/07
1/5/68

1/5/77

1/5/80

1/5/89

1/5/92

1/5/01

1/5/04
-1.00

-2.00

-3.00

-4.00

1yr/10yr spread

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