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NATIONAL RESEARCH INC

Memorandum

TO: MACARTHUR CAMPAIGN TEAM
FROM: ADAM GELLER, NATIONAL RESEARCH INC.
RE: STATE OF THE RACE
DATE: OCTOBER 3, 2014

The following is a summary of our telephone survey of 400 likely voters in NJs 3
rd
congressional
district. Dialing was conducted September 30-October2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the
95% confidence interval. Thirty percent (30%) of the surveys were conducted with cell phone only
respondents. By registration, the survey sample is 35% Republican, 36% Democrat and 29%
Independent, unaffiliated or other.

The State of the Race
There are two main reasons why Tom has shown impressive, linear growth in the polling. The first has
to do with overall political dynamics and atmospherics improving for Republicans generically. The
second has to do with the fact that we are prosecuting a strong case against Aimee Belgard and voters
are determining their vote based on Toms comparative strength. Some specifics:

In the head to head ballot, MacArthur leads Belgard 44%-37%.
President Obamas job approval stands at 43%. His disapproval is 53%.
In the generic ballot, the Republican leads 41%-38%.
Tom MacArthur has a virtual 2:1 image ratio 33% are favorable and 17% are unfavorable.
Aimee Belgard has an upside-down image 26% are favorable and 29% are unfavorable.

DCCC/Belgard Attacks
The DCCC/Belgard attacks against Tom have proven ineffective, given this data point from the survey:

Only 15% of respondents believe Tom MacArthur is a greedy Insurance Company CEO who got rich
from cheating hurricane and wildfire victims out of their rightful insurance claims.

The Bottom Line
While the overall political environment has shifted in the Republicans favor, this district requires two
things in order for Republicans to succeed: An environment that is not lousy for the GOP (think 2008)
and a strong candidate with a good message. We have both of these lined up and should continue to
prosecute a compelling narrative in favor of Tom MacArthur and against Aimee Belgard.