THE DES MOI NES REGI STER/BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2104

426 Democratic likely caucusgoers October 1-7, 2014
Compared to 425 Republican likely caucusgoers 3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

BASED ON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSGOERS

Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?


100 Yes
- No

- Not sure

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the
Republican caucus?


Rep
CG
DEM
CG

- 39 Definitely attend Democratic caucus

- 61 Probably attend Democratic caucus
39 - Definitely attend Republican caucus
61 - Probably attend Republican caucus
- - Probably not attend a caucus
- - Dont know which caucus will attend
- - Not sure

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican
caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


72 12 Attended Republican caucus in the past
2 63 Attended Democratic caucus in the past
11 12 Attended both
14 12 First caucus
1 1 Not sure

Which of the following do you see as the most important issue for the next president to address? (Read list. Rotate.)


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


11 8 Immigration
11 18 Health care
23 9 The federal deficit
16 9 Terrorism
9 4 Taxes

11 21 Unemployment and jobs
- 12 Climate change

12 9 Foreign policy
3 2 Other (VOL) (specify:)
1 1 None of these (VOL)
3 7 Not sure

In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong
track?


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


8 51 Right direction
90 42 Wrong track
2 7 Not sure

What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on
the wrong track?


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


75 49 Right direction
18 44 Wrong track
7 7 Not sure

Turning now to the conflict in Iraq and Syria involving ISIS, the Islamic State: President Obama has begun military
operations with air force bombings. He has been very clear he is ruling out any U.S. troops to engage in a ground war.
Some want to leave that option open. What is your thought? Do you think the U.S. should or should not rule out
having American boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria?


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


23 45 Should rule out boots on the ground
67 46 Should not rule out boots on the ground
10 9 Not sure

Which of the following better reflects your thinking about U.S. involvement in other countries to combat serious
terrorism threats: (Rotate options.)


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


65 40 As a global military leader, the U.S. must take the lead in combating terrorism, even if it
means acting alone, because it is dangerous for the U.S. to let terror groups grow
23 49 The U.S. is overextended from military actions over the last 13 years that have not turned out
well. It is dangerous to the U.S. economy to enter new conflicts
12 11 Not sure

Compared to five years ago, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about the same?


Rep
CG
DEM
CG


25 40 Better off
30 16 Worse off
45 43 About the same
- 1 Not sure



Now, Im going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for
president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very
unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list.)


Fav Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure

Joe Biden, vice president of the United States 60 34 15 45 19 15 6
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state 76 19 43 33 8 11 5
Martin OMalley, governor of Maryland 13 9 2 11 7 2 78
Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont 29 13 10 19 8 5 58
Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana 9 12 1 8 8 4 79
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from
Massachusetts 44 11 23 21 6 5 45
Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from Virginia 16 12 1 15 8 4 72
Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York 24 34 2 22 22 12 42
John Kerry, secretary of state and former
Democratic nominee for president 60 31 13 47 18 13 9

Which one of the following Democratic candidates would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice, record as no first choice and do not ask second
choice. Read list only if necessary.)


Q.18a
First
Choice
Q.18b
Second
Choice
First or second choice
Combined*

Joe Biden 9 19 28
Hillary Clinton 53 15 68
Andrew Cuomo 1 2 3
John Kerry 7 21 28
Martin OMalley - 1 1
Bernie Sanders 3 4 7
Brian Schweitzer 1 1 2
Elizabeth Warren 10 15 25
Jim Webb 1 2 3
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
3 N/A
Not sure 12 5
No first choice N/A 15

*Combines answers from first choice and second choice, so total may exceed 100%.

Im going to mention the names of some Democratic leaders. For each, please tell me how important their opinion is to
you in deciding which candidate to supportvery important, fairly important, just somewhat important, or not
important. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate
list.)


Very
Important
Fairly
Important
Just
somewhat
Important
Not
Important
Not
Sure

Barack Obama, president of the United States 49 15 14 20 2
Bill Clinton, former president of the United States 47 20 16 15 2
Tom Harkin, U.S. senator from Iowa 40 18 22 16 4
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts 25 11 12 22 30



Im going to mention some stands on specific issues a candidate might take. For each, please tell me if you favor or
oppose the position. (Rotate list.)

Which one or two issues are most important to you? (Accept up to two answers. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed
100%.)


Favor Oppose Not sure
Most
important

Supports keeping abortion legal 72 23 5 21
Supports making same-sex marriages legal as national policy 72 22 6 17
Supports legalizing marijuana 53 34 13 9
Opposes U.S. military action to degrade and destroy the Islamic
State 45 42 13 14
Supports raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans 79 16 5 25
Supports keeping the Affordable Care Act, also known as
Obamacare, largely the way it is 64 29 7 35
Supports immigration reform that would create a path to citizenship 77 18 5 26
None of these/not sure 6

If Hillary Clinton were to become president, do you think her choices would more closely resemble the Barack Obama
presidency or the Bill Clinton presidency?

13 Obama presidency
61 Bill Clinton presidency
7 Neither (VOL)
19 Not sure

Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political beliefs, Hillary
Clinton or Elizabeth Warren?

52 Hillary Clinton
26 Elizabeth Warren
4 Neither (VOL)
18 Not sure

Do you think it is an advantage or a disadvantage for Hillary Clinton to have close ties to Wall Street?

36 Advantage
44 Disadvantage
20 Not sure

Hillary Clinton supported intervention in Libya, thinks the U.S. should have been more aggressive with Syria three years
ago, and initially supported the Iraq War. Would these stands on using military force make her better suited to be
president or do you worry she is too much of an interventionist?

51 Make her better suited to be president
28 Too much of an interventionist
21 Not sure

Do you think it would help or hurt the Democratic Party to place greater emphasis on Christian religious beliefs?

Help Hurt
Not
sure
30 57 13



About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 1-7 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines,
is based on telephone interviews with 426 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses and 425 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican
caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,677 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 426 likely Democratic caucus attendees and 425 likely Republican caucus
attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.