North Dakota Statewide Survey, October 2014 #785-AJND

Prepared by DFM Research

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Methodology

The survey results presented in this report are based on a stratified random sample of 430 North
Dakotans that indicated that they are certain or very likely to vote in the 2014 general election.
The sample was stratified by region to ensure a representative sample of the North Dakota
electorate; the stratified sample was comprised of five distinct regions:

26% - Eastern Cities (Fargo, West Fargo, Grand Forks)
20% - Western Cities (Bismarck, Mandan, Minot)
18% - Eastern North Dakota
19% - Central North Dakota
17% - Western North Dakota

The percentages allocated for each region was based on voter turnout in the 53 counties from the
2010 and 2012 general election, coupled with the most recent Census Bureau state population
estimates.

After the numbers were stratified into the appropriate region, telephone numbers were then selected
by random using a skip pattern to guarantee that the interviews were distributed throughout the
region. Each number in the stratified sample had the same non-zero chance of being selected for an
interview.

Telephone interviews were conducted by trained staff of Stone Research Services of Indianapolis,
Indiana, using a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) system for landline phones. Cell
phone interviews are dialed manually to comply with the Telemarketing Consumer Protection Act
of 1991. To ensure everyone in the household would have an equal chance of being selected; callers
would ask to interview the resident over the age of 18 who had the most recent birthday.

Final results are weighted based on gender, age, and education to conform to the approximate
voting population based on U.S. Census Bureau demographic data and election statistics. Below are
the final demographic percentage used to weight the survey.

Gender Age Education
Male 49% 18-39 30% High School/Less 29%
Female 51% 40-64 46% Some College/AA 38%
65+ 24% Bachelor/Graduate 33%

The final results presented are subject to sampling error, which is the difference between results
obtained from the survey, and those if everyone in the target population were interviewed. The
sampling error, commonly known as the margin of error, is + 4.7 percentage points with a 95
percent confidence level; meaning that in 19 out of 20 times, the individual responses would be
within the margin of error (confidence interval). If final results of a question resulted in a tabulated
answer of 50 percent, the confidence interval would between 45.3 to 54.7 percent. Where
appropriate, question and answer choices are randomized to reduce order bias; due to rounding,
numbers may not equal 100 percent.

Project management and final analysis of the data was completed by Dean Mitchell of DFM
Research based in Saint Paul, Minnesota. In addition to his 22 years of political experience, Dean
has completed course work in survey techniques and statistics as part of his Master in Public Policy
(MPP) degree from the University of Minnesotas Humphrey School of Public Affairs.

North Dakota Statewide Survey, October 2014 #785-AJND
Prepared by DFM Research
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Q12: In addition to candidates on the ballot, North Dakotans will also be voting on several
constitutional measures to enact new sections of the State Constitution. The first on the
ballot is Measure #1, which states that,

The inalienable right to every human being at any state of development must be recognized
and protected.

If the election was held today, would you vote Yes or No. Yes means you approve the
measure, No means you reject the measure.

Yes, Approve the Measure ............................................................... 39%
No, Reject the Measure .................................................................... 45
(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 16


Gender Yes No Unsure

Men 43% 42 15
Women 36 48 16

Age Yes No Unsure

18-39 39 44 17
40-64 40 47 13
Over 65 39 41 20

Education Yes No Unsure

High School/Less 36 40 24
Some College/AA Degree 42 43 15
Bachelor/Graduate Degree 40 52 9

Region Yes No Unsure

East City 31 58 11
West City 35 52 13
East Rural 42 42 16
Central Rural 42 37 20
West Rural 51 28 22

Party Identification Yes No Unsure

Democrat 27 62 11
Independent 33 46 21
Republican 55 32 13

North Dakota Statewide Survey, October 2014 #785-AJND
Prepared by DFM Research
15 | P a g e

Q13: I now want to read you the text of another constitutional measure that will be on the ballot,
Measure #5.

Should the state constitution be amended to create a Clean Water, Wildlife and Park trust
fund to be financed by 5 percent of the states share of oil extraction taxes; this fund would
then make grants to aid water quality, natural flood control, fish and wildlife habitats, parks
and outdoor recreation areas, and access for hunting and fishing.

If the election was held today, would you vote Yes or No. Yes means you approve the
measure, No means you reject the measure.

Yes, Approve the Measure ............................................................... 34%
No, Reject the Measure .................................................................... 55
(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 11


Gender Yes No Unsure

Men 30% 61 9
Women 37 50 13

Age Yes No Unsure

18-39 44 43 13
40-64 30 60 10
Over 65 28 61 11

Education Yes No Unsure

High School/Less 36 45 19
Some College/AA Degree 36 54 9
Bachelor/Graduate Degree 28 65 7

Region Yes No Unsure

East City 39 51 10
West City 34 56 10
East Rural 36 57 8
Central Rural 29 58 13
West Rural 29 56 15

Party Identification Yes No Unsure

Democrat 50 44 7
Independent 32 51 16
Republican 25 67 8