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TRIP GENERATION

HOW MANY??
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
FROM WHERE??
MODAL CHOICE
WHAT??
HOW MANY??
TRIP ASSIGNMENT
WHICH??
MODAL CHOICE/SPLIT
• ESTIMATE HOW MANY PEOPLE WILL USE PUBLIC TRANSIT AND HOW MANY WILL USE PRIVATE
AUTOMOBILES
• ESTIMATE THE CHOICES INDIVIDUALS MAKE GIVEN THE MODE ALTERNATIVES AVAILABLE TO THEM
• IT IS THE TRIP MAKER’S BEHAVIOR IN SELECTING A TRAVEL MODE TO MAKE AN INTERZONAL TRIP FROM
ZONE I TO ZONE J

REASONS FOR CHOICE
VARIES FORM INDIVIDUALS
• AGE
• SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS
CHARACTERISTIC OF TRIP MAKER
• PARKING FEES
• CONGESTION
• COMFORT
• CAR AVAILABILITY OR OWNERSHIP
• POSSESSION OF DRIVER’S LICENCE
• HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE
• INCOME
• RESIDENTIAL DENSITY
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE JOURNEY
• TRIP PURPOSE
• TIME OF THE DAY WHEN THE JOURNEY IS UNDERTAKEN
• LATE TRIPS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACCOMMODATE BY PUBLIC TRANSPORT
CHARACTERISTIC OF THE TRANSPORT
FACILITY
• RELATIVE TIME TRAVEL
• RELATIVE MONETARY COST
• AVAILABILITY AND COST OF PARKING
CHOICE RIDER AND TRANSIT CAPTIVE
CHOICE RIDER
• CHOOSES BETWEEN THE USE OF PRIVATE AUTOS AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT
TRANSIT CAPTIVE
• HAVE NO CHOICE BUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT
MODAL CHOICE MODELS
• ARE CLASSIFIED AS PREDISTRIBUTION (TRIP-END) OR AS POSTDISTRIBUTION (TRIP-INTERCHANGE)
MODELS
• COMMON MODAL CHOICE MODELS ARE PROBABILISTIC MODELS
PROBABILISTIC MODELS
• COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT
• BASED ON HUMAN CHOICE WHICH EXPLAINS HOW PEOPLE SELECT BETWEEN COMPETING ALTERNATIVES
• DESCRIBED AS UTILITY OR DISUTILITY FUNCTIONS
UTILITY AND DISUTILITY FUNCTIONS
• MEASURES THE DEGREE OF SATISFACTION (COMFORT, ACCESS, UBIQUITY, PRIVACY) OF THE CHOICE
DISUTILITY FUNCTION
• MEASURES THE GENERALIZED COST (TRAVEL TIME, WAITING TIME, COST) ASSOCIATED WITH THE COST

UTILITY AND DISUTILITY FUNCTIONS
UTILITY (DISUTILITY) FUNCTION
=
0
+
1

1
+
2

2
+ …………. +

WHERE:
1
,
2
,

= ATTRIBUTES


0,

1,

2,

= PARAMETER
EXAMPLE:
1
= ACCESS PLUS EGRESS TIME (MIN)

2
= WAITING TIME (MIN)

3
= LINE-HAUL TIME (MIN)

4
= OUT OF POCKET COST (RUPEES)
CALIBRATION OF UTILITY FUNCTION

=

+
1

1
+
2

2
+ …………. +

WHERE: K = MODE SPECIFIC CONSTANT OF A GIVEN CHOICE
EXAMPLE: K = 1; PERSONAL CAR
K = 2; LOCAL BUS
K = 3; EXPRESS BUS
LOGIT MODEL
• CALCULATES THE PROPORTION OF TRIPS THAT WILL SELECT THAT WILL SELECT A SPECIFIC TRAVEL MODE
=

• THIS MODEL SATISFIES THE TRIP BALANCE EQUATION,

=


• THE NUMBER OF TRIPS BY EACH MODE IS GIVEN BY,

= ∗

SAMPLE PROBLEM 1
A CALIBRATION STUDY RESULTED IN THE FOLLOWING UTILITY EQUATION:

=

−0.025
1
−0.032
2
−0.015
3
− 0.002
4

WHERE:
1
,
2
,
3
,
4
= ATTRIBUTES

1
= ACCESS PLUS EGRESS TIME (MIN)

2
= WAITING TIME (MIN)

3
= LINE HAUL TIME (MIN)

4
= OUT OF POCKET COST (RUPEES)

CONTINUATION
THE TRIP DISTRIBUTION FORECAST FOR A PARTICULAR INTERCHANGE WAS A TARGET YEAR VOLUME

= 5000 AVERAGE PERSON TRIPS PER DAY. DURING THE TARGET YEAR, TRIP MAKERS ON THIS
INTERCHANGE WILL HAVE A CHOICE BETWEEN PERSONAL CAR (

= −0.12) AND LOCAL BUS SYSTEM
(

= −0.56).
THE TARGET YEAR SERVICE ATTRIBUTES OF THE TWO MODES ARE:


ESTIMATE THE TARGET YEAR MARKET SHARE OF THE TWO MODES. CALCULATE THE FARE REVENUE OF THE
BUS SYSTEM. ASSUME FIXED BUS SYSTEM ON THE INTERCHANGE.
Attribute
1

2

3

4

Personal Car 5 0 20 100
Local 10 15 40 50
SOLUTION
SOLUTION

= −0.12 −0.025 5 −0.032 0 −0.015 20 −0.002 100 = −0.745

= 0.4747

= −0.56 − 0.025 10 −0.032 15 −0.015 40 − 0.002 50 = −1.990

= 0.1367
SOLUTION

=

+

=
0.4747
0.4747 +0.1367
= 0.776

=

+

=
0.1367
0.4747 +0.1367
= 0.224

= 0.776 5000 = 3880 /

() = 0.224 5000 = 1120 /
= 1120 50 = 56000 /
SAMPLE PROBLEM 2
A NEW EXPRESS BUS (RT) SYSTEM IS TO BE INTRODUCED AND THE ESTIMATED

= −0.41. THE
PROJECTED ATTRIBUTES FOR THE RT SYSTEM ARE:



ASSUMING OF THE EXISTING MODES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE INTRODUCTION OF THE RT SYSTEM,
CALCULATE THE EXPECTED PATRONAGE OF THE THREE MODES AND THE REVENUE OF THE BUS AND THE RT
SYSTEM.
Attribute
1

2

3

4

Personal Car 5 0 20 100
Local 10 15 40 50
RT 10 5 30 75
SOLUTION

= −0.745

= −1.990

= −0.41 −0.025 10 −0.032 5 −0.015 30 −0.002 75 = −1.420

= 0.2417

=

+

+

=
0.4747
0.4747 +0.1367 + 0.2417
= 0.556

SOLUTION

=

+

+

=
0.1367
0.4747 +0.1367 + 0.2417
= 0.160

=

+

+

=
0.2417
0.4747 +0.1367 +0.2417
= 0.283

= 0.556 5000 = 2780 /

() = 0.160 5000 = 800 /

= 0.283 5000 = 1420 /
SOLUTION
= 800 50 = 40000
= 1420 75 = 106500
+ = 146500
RT SYSTEM IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CAR AND BUS. IT HAS ATTRACTED 1100 CAR TRIPS AND 320 BUS
TRIPS. IF THE LOCAL BUS AND EXPRESS BUS SYSTEM ARE OPERATED BY THE SAME OPERATOR, THE
OPERATORS FARE COLLECTION IS INCREASED BY 90,500.
SAMPLE PROBLEM 3
THE OPERATOR IS PLANNING TO CHANGE THE RAPID TRANSIT FARE FROM RS 75 TO 90 RS. WHAT IS THE
EFFECT OF THIS PLAN ON THE UTILIZATION OF THE THREE MODES AND ON THE OPERATOR’S REVENUE?
SOLUTION

4
= 90

= −0.41 −0.025 10 −0.032 5 −0.015 30 −0.002 75 = −1.420

= 0.556

= 0.160

= 0.283

= 0.556 5000 = 2780

= 0.160 5000 = 800

= 0.283 5000 = 1420
SOLUTION
BY THIS ACTION THE CAR TRIPS HAVE INCREASED BY 26, THE BUS TRIPS BY 8, AND RT TRIPS HAVE
REDUCED BY 34. BUT THE OPERATORS FARE COLLECTION HAS INCREASED BY RS 18700AS FOLLOWS:
= 808 50 = 40400
= 1386 90 = 124800
= 165200
= 146500
= 18700
INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL
• AN EXTENSION OF LOGIT MODEL
• IT IS USEFUL WHEN CALCULATING THE PROBABILITY OF PATRONAGE WHEN A CHANGE IN ONE OR A FEW
OF THE ATTRIBUTES IN THE UTILITY FUNCTION TAKES PLACE.
DERIVATION OF INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL
=

WHEN EACH UTILITY HAS CHANGED BY ∆


=

+ ∆

+ ∆

DERIVATION OF INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL


=


(


)

NOW DIVIDING THE NUMERATOR AND DENOMINATOR BY

, WE HAVE


=


(


)

DERIVATION OF INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL
BUT =



=

(()∗

)

EXAMPLE
CALCULATE THE NEW PATRONAGE OF CAR, LOCAL BUS, AND RT OF THE PREVIOUS EXAMPLE USING THE
INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL

= 0.556

= 0.160

= 0.283
THE ONLY CHANGE IS IN THE RT BY ∆

= −0.002 15 = −0.03
APPLICATION
APPLYING INCREMENTAL LOGIT MODEL WE HAVE,


=
0.556(
0
)
0.556
0
+0.160
0
+0.283(
−0.03
)
= 0.561


=
0.160(
0
)
0.556
0
+0.160
0
+0.283(
−0.03
)
= 0.162


=
0.283(
−0.03
)
0.556
0
+0.160
0
+0.283(
−0.03
)
= 0.277


MULTINOMINAL LOGIT (MNL) MODEL
• CALCULATES THE PROBABILITY OF CHOOSING MODE K IF DISAGGREGATE OR PROPORTION OF THE
TRAVELLERS IN THE AGGREGATE CASE THAT WILL SELECT A SPECIFIC MODE K ACCORDING TO THE
FOLLOWING RELATIONSHIP:
=

• GENERAL FORM OF THIS EQUATION RESEMBLES THE FRACTIONAL TERM OF THE GRAVITY MODEL OF THE
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
INDEPENDENCE OF IRRELEVANT
ALTERNATIVES (IIA) PROPERTY
• CONSIDER AN MNL MODEL THAT INCLUDES ALTERNATIVES A AND B IN THE CHOICE SET
• APPLYING THE MNL EQUATION TO COMPUTE THE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHOICE A AND B AND
COMPUTING THEIR RATIO:


=

=

• RATIO OF THE TWO PROBABILITY IS A FUNCTION OF THE DIFFERENCE IN UTILITIES OF TWO ALTERNATIVES AND
IS NOT AFFECTED THE UTILITY OF ANY OTHER ALTERNATIVE IN THE CHOICE SET
THIS RATIO IS NOT INFLUENCED BY ANY CHANGE IN UTILITY OF A THIRD (IRRELEVANT) ALTERNATIVE
ANY CHANGE IN UTILITY OF THE THIRD ALTERNATIVE WILL AFFECT THE SHARES OF A AND B BY THE SAME PROPORTION
BLUE BUS/RED BUS EXAMPLE (MAYBERRY,
1973)
• SUPPOSE THAT 2 MODES, CAR AND BUS SERVICE USING BLUE BUS SERVE A CITY
• ASSUME THAT UTILITIES OF THE TWO MODES ARE IDENTICAL
• THEREFORE, THE MNL MODEL WILL YIELD EQUAL SHARES FOR THE TWO MODES:
50% OF THE TRAVELLERS CHOOSE CAR (C) AND 50% CHOOSE BUS (B)
• ASSUME THAT THE MANAGER OF THE BUS COMPANY, DECIDES TO PAINT HALF OF THE BUSES RED BUT
MANAGES TO MAINTAIN THE SAME LEVEL OF SERVICE AS BEFORE (SAME UTILITY)
• WITH THREE EQUAL UTILITY MODES, THE MNL EQUATION WILL YIELD EQUAL SHARES, WHERE EACH MODE WILL
ATTRACT ONE THIRD (33.3%) OF THE TRAVELLERS
• IN REALITY, HOWEVER, THE CAR WOULD RETAIN ITS 50% SHARE AND REMAINING 50% WOULD BE SPLIT
EQUALLY BETWEEN THE BLUE AND RED BUSES
THIS IS DUE TO THE IIA PROPERTY WHICH ENSURES THAT THE RATIO OF PROBABILITIES OF THE ORIGINAL “MODES”
REMAINS THE SAME
A NESTED LOGIT STRUCTURE CAN REDUCE THIS PROBLEM

NESTED LOGIT MODEL
• BEST PRACTICE APPROACH TO MINIMIZE THE COUNTERINTUITIVE IMPLICATION OF THE IIA PROPERTY OF
THE MNL MODEL => NESTED (HIERARCHICAL) STRUCTURE
HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE – SIMILAR ALTERNATIVES ARE CLUSTERED TOGETHER
MNL Structure for a 3 mode choice
Rail Local Bus Automobile
CHOICE
Composite Transit Automobile
Rail Local Bus
CHOICE
Nested Logit Structure
NESTED LOGIT MODEL
• THE STRUCTURE PERMITS A CHANGE IN THE UTILITY OF ONE OF THE TRANSIT MODES TO AFFECT THE SHARE OF THE OTHER
TRANSIT MODE TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN A MODE WHICH DOES NOT BELONG TO THE TRANSIT NEST
• GREATER DEGREE OF CHOICE SUBSTITUTION IS ALLOWED WITHIN NESTS THAN BETWEEN NESTS
=

+

; =

+

WHERE COMPOSITE TRANSIT UTILITY

=

,

• AT THE LOWER TRANSIT LEVEL, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF:
CHOOSING BUS (B) GIVEN THE DECISION TO TRAVEL BY TRANSIT

=

+

CHOOSING RAIL (R) GIVEN THE DECISION TO TRAVEL BY TRANSIT

=

+