Trading Through Technical Analysis

A PROJECT REPORT ON TRADING THROUGH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

UNDERTAKEN AT A SOUTH GUJARAT SHARES & SHAREBROKERS LTD.

SUBMITTED BY NARENDRA N. PATEL ID NO: - O8MBA36

GUIDED BY: MR. NIRAV MAJMUDAR

MBA PROGRAMME 2008-10

SUBMITTED TO SRIMAD RAJCHANDRA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AND COMPUTER APPLICATION

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

ACKNOWLEGEMENT

I give my thanks to the officers & executives and all the staff members of the SOUTH GUJARAT SHARES & SHARE BROKERS LTD. for their valuable assistance and excellent co-operation in preparation of this Project Report.

My thanks goes to Veer Narmad South Gujarat University that gave me a chance to brighten my academic qualification that provide that opportunity to have practical knowledge about the relevant field.

I would like to thanks Mr. Nirav Majmudar, permanent faculty & finance teacher for making available all facilities in fulfilling the requirement for my project report and has provided me complete guidance during my project report.

The project would have been possible throughout the experience, guidance and supervision of Mr. Rajesh Patel has potentially and critically gone through the subject matter.

Finally, I would like to thank to all these people who are directly or indirectly contributed to my project work.

Narendra N. Patel

Signature 2
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Trading Through Technical Analysis

DECLARATION

I, Narendra N. Patel., here by declare that the project report entitled “TRADING THROUGH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS” under the guidance of Mr. Nirav Majmudar, submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for degree of Master of Business Administration to Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat is my original work – research study – carried out during 25th May, 2009 to 25th July, 2009. Hereby I declare that this report will not submitted for the award of any other degree/diploma/ fellowship of other similar titles of price to any other institution/ organization of university by any other person or for copying.

Place:

Date: / /

Signature

(Narendra N. Patel.) F.Y.M.B.A. (Sem-2) ID No:08MBA36

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY India's economy is on the fulcrum of an ever increasing growth curve. With positive indicators such as a stable 8-9 per cent annual growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, a booming capital market and a rapid rise in FDI in the last year, India has emerged as the second fastest growing major economy in the world. The economy has been growing at around 9 percent in the past two years recording a growth rate of 9.4 per cent and 8 per cent in 2006-07 and 2007-08 respectively and 6.5 percentage in 2008-09. significantly, the industrial and service sectors have been contributing a major part of this growth, suggesting the structural transformation underway in the Indian economy. Investment in the equity market is very risky compare to the other instruments like mutual fund and insurance. So it needs in depth analysis of the scripts. The study of the stock market has become divided in to two kinds of thought: Fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on the economic forces of supply and demand that cause prices to move higher and lower as to stay the same. Technical analysis is the study of market action primarily through the use of charts for the purpose of forecasting future price trends. The term “market action” includes the two principle sources of information available to the technicians-price and volume. I have chosen the technical analysis for the purpose of analyzing the scripts. I have studied basic theories of technical analysis which are applicable to this analysis which includes various indicators and oscillators. I have used MACD oscillator and RSI indicator for analyzing scripts and to obtain buy and sell signals.

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From my research, I found that it is really a nice approach to estimate the future. It really helps to catch the small moves and gives the opportunity to investor to get returns in the small and long run also. The selection of the company:Here companies have been selected on the basis of market

capitalization. Those companies are highest at market capitalization have been selected. Here it is to be noted that BHARTI AIRTEL and SBI has not been selected because historical data of the share prices is not available on NSE. From my research of historical data which yields profit and losses has been calculated on the basis of MACD and RSI which has yield profits which is resulted from the frequent buy-sell. The procedure has been well explained in the report. The all result which has been obtained after analysis of these signals. These all result is said to be obtained by adopting active trading strategy. These result of active trading strategy has been obtained are compared with the passive trading strategy which referred to the buying the stocks at the starting of year and selling the security after particular time interval (at the end of the year in this report). So these analysis and interpretation of the data has been done and all the results and findings obtained. It is found from the research that active trading strategy is more useful then the passive trading strategy.

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CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the Summer Project report entitled “Trading Through Technical Analysis” has been carried at out by Narendra Patel & (08MBA36) South Gujarat Shares

Sharebroker Ltd.as a partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Business Administration (M.B.A.) during academic year 200810.

Nirav Majmudar Patel FACULTY GUIDE

Dr. Bankim

DIRECTOR

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TABLE OF CONTENTS SR. NO. 01 TRADING THROUGH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
About the Company 1.1 Introduction about company 1.2 Profile of the company 1.3 Ideology

PAGE NO.

02 03

About the Topic & Literature Review RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Research Objectives 3.2 Research Design 3.3 Limitation to the study

04 05 06

DATA ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS RECOMMENDATIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX

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INTRODUCTION ABOUT SGSSL
The South Gujarat Shares and Share brokers Ltd. (SGSSL) was started with authorized share capital of Rs. 3 crores and it’s paid up capital 1.27 crores under the company Act 1956. In 1992, The Company started its activities as association of person as sub broker giving service for buying and selling of securities to investors in Surat. Mr. Anil Choksy, Mr. Ashok Maheta, Mr. Jagdish Patel, Mr.Paresh jarivala Who took initiative to forming a limited company, So as become member of NSE India .In this way SGSSL was registered under company Act on the 5th January 1995, and conducted it’s trading business as member of National Stock Exchange. 31st march 1995 which was first financial year completed by the company after its registration & in this year the company suffered a loss of Rs.80000 due to heavy expenses like assets purchase, maintenance, establishment of building, furniture etc. The company had also faced loss in next financial year (1995) of RS.118000 because of prevailing poor market condition. During the year ended 31st march, 1997 the company has turned the table. On the total income of Rs. 4,5,80,000, the company made a net profit of Rs.3,70,000 and after adjusting the losses of Rs. 1,98,000, the Net Profit shown to the Balance Sheet was Rs. 1,78,000. On the 27th February 1996, the company obtained SEBI registration broker. Originally the operation was started at Baroda because at that time National Stock Exchange not providing connectivity in Surat. When connectivity was started, it shifted in Surat at 23rd July 1996 at Belgium Chambers. At Belgium Chambers the company 2700sq.ft. In the next year 1998 the company has taken approval from National Security Depository Ltd. (NSDL) to work as Depository Participant (DP). In the beginning only 8 scrip were available which is only for FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) and Mutual Funds. Then 9
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after trading of equity on NSE’s scrip were started. There are more than 12,500 holders which having demated a/c in SGSSL. The company is second largest in demate a/c in Surat city. In present condition company try to register its sub-broker in SEBI. But now in present, company has 35 registered sub-brokers and other members. Company has a Computer-to-Computer Link (CTCL) network, which are connected with LAN and WAN. In Surat City Company has given many register sub-broker CTCL. Company also provides its services outside in Surat like, Navsari, Bilimora and Hazira. In company there are 28 people working. Company has also connect with 5 servers in this server one server connect with NSE CTCL and second with disaster management. In NSDL also there is one main server. The company provide 3 different rooms for online trading to its clients and sub-broker with Satellite dish, Modem and Iqara cable. The trading business of the company is rapidly expanding and its daily trading volumes have now crossed Rs.4 crores. The company expects the trading volume will increase in future. Mr. Anil Choksy (Chairman & MD) of the company leads the operation of the company. He along with other Whole-time Directors maintains a close hand on the operation. The company has its own internal trading and settlement regulation, which are in conformity with the NSE and SEBI regulation. These regulations ensure that the activities of the company are managed on the Co-operative basis and in the high interest of the investors and the shareholders of the company. 1.2 Profile of Company 1. Name of the company “South Gujarat Shares and Share brokers Limited” 2. Registered Office 3rd Floor, Belgium Square, Opp.Linear bus stop, Ring Road, 10
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Surat-395 003. 3. Boards of Directors Mr.Anil J. Choksy Mr.Bhadresh G. Kapadia Mr.Shashikant R. Yadav Mr.Aiyush M. Yacoobali Mr.Bipinchandra Lineswala Mr.Chetan T. Halvawala 4. Bankers Bank of Baroda  Canara Bank  HDFC Bank Prime Co-operative Bank 5. Internal Auditor Anvish Sanghavi & Company Chartered Accountant Surat. 1.3 IDEOLOGY The emphasis in SGSSL is the ‘Client’. We are committed to service our clients employing a personalized and human approach, understanding their need and customizing solutions to fulfill their need. It is an approach that is inculcated and ingrained in all the employees and is followed from the top to bottom in the organization. We cater to our clients by offering them insights in to the markets, advising them and providing them with our best services. CRM (Customer Relationship Management) Approach is follows  Speed & Quality in Delivery System  Consistency of service quality  Professional Approach  Fulfilling the Client’s need (Chairman and MD) (Whole-time Director) (Whole-time Director) (Whole-time Director) (Whole-time Director) (Director)

Mr.Paresh H. Zaveri Director (Director)

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LITERATURE REVIEW: For this study, I have collected lot of data from the different sources of data. Mainly I have used two methods for data collection. A) Primary Data:  Personal consultation with broker as well as mentor: In which I have consulted with the mentor about how to get the data which help me in analysis. How to get that data from which sources and also how to obtain graphs from the various sites and broker has help me out in obtaining that data. Mentor has also given me knowledge about various techniques to use in the technical analysis. B) Secondary Data:  Internet In which various information and data supporting to the topic has been referred and it has help me out in understanding various techniques and graphs explained in the theory used in analyzing the data.  Data has been collected for the understanding purpose has Data of Market capitalization has been obtained through been collected through www.investopedia.com.  www.Moneycontrol.com

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What is Technical Analysis? We can define Technical Analysis as a study of the stock market considering factors related to the supply and demand of stocks. Technical Analysis doesn’t look at underlying earnings potential of a company while evaluating stocks {unlike fundamental Analysis}. It uses charts and computer programs to study the stock’s trading volume and price movements in the hope of identifying a trend. In fact the decision made on the basis of technical analysis is done only after inferring a trend and judging the future movement of the stock on the basis of the trend. Technical Analysis assumes that the market is efficient and the price has already taken into consideration the other factors related to the company and the industry. It is because of this assumption that many think technical analysis is a tool, which is effective for short-term investing. History of Technical Analysis: Technical Analysis as a tool of investment for the average investor thrived in the late nineteenth century when Charles Dow, then editor of the Wall Street Journal, proposed the Dow theory. He recognized that the movement is caused by the action/reaction of the people dealing in stocks rather than the news in itself. Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. Just as there are many investment styles on the fundamental side, there are also many different types of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns, others use technical indicators and oscillators, and most use some combination of the two. In any case, technical analysts' exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysts, technical analysts don't care whether a stock is undervalued 13
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the only thing that matters is a security's past trading data and what information this data can provide about where the Security might move in the future. 1. The Market Discount Everything A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, a stock's price reflects everything that has or could affect the company including fundamental factors. Technical analysts believe that the company's fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of the supply and demand for a particular stock in the market. 2. Price Moves in Trends In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption. 3. History Tends to Repeat Itself Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves. 14
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How is Technical Analysis done? Technical Analysis is done by identifying the trend from past movements and then using it as a tool to predict future price movements of the stock. It can be done by using any of the following methods: a) Moving Averages— This method is used to predict the trend and specify various support and resistance levels in the short and long term period. Most commonly used moving averages are 30 DMAs and 200 DMAs. Where DMA means Days Moving Average. b) Charts & Patterns— Some analysts’ uses charts and patterns to decide on the trend and then judge the future movement. The tool used by such analyst is converting the chart in one of the many form of many shapes commonly formed by stocks. Some of such patterns are:

Reversal Patterns: 1. Bump and Run 2. Double Top 3. Double Top 4. Double Bottom 5. Head And Shoulders Top 6. Head And Shoulders Bottom 7. Falling Wedge 8. Rising Wedge 9. Rounding Bottom 10. Triple Top 11. Triple Bottom

Continuation Patterns: 1.Cup with Handle 2. Flag Pennant 3. Symmetric Triangle 4.Ascending Triangle 5. Descending Triangle 6. Price Channel 7. Rectangle 8. Measured {Bear} Move

Who uses Technical Analysis?

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Investors for their short-term trading decisions use Technical Analysis. This short-term may be further divided in day trading, shortterm investment and for hedging purposes. The role played by Technical Analysis in each case is as follows: 1) Day Traders: A day trader is one who takes and squares off his position both on the same day. Mostly a day trader counts on turnover rather than margin. A day trader will interpret the market movement in the manner stated below. Suppose Mr. X is a day trader who deals in S&P CNX Nifty. The movement of Nifty during a particular day is stated below, if Mr. X follows the recommendations made by Technical Analysis he should sell the Nifty at 1904-1908 levels and again at 1890 level. It can be clearly seen that buying is coming at the level of 1870-1875; it is better He Squares off and can even become a net buyer at this range.

2) Short term investors: These people form the biggest clientele base of both the brokers and the Technical Analyst. To explain the working lets take the price movement curve of Infosys Technologies on NSE for the period 1st January 2003 to 9th April 2003. On closely analyzing the chart you will notice that a sustained buying is coming at the level of around Rs.4000. Another aspect, which should be noted, is the declining trend in terms of short term ‘High’ created by the stock. We can clearly deduce that each short-term rally is creating a lower high over the 16
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given term. In such a situation it is recommended by analyst to buy at the resistance level but sell it off immediately if it breaks the level by a margin of 2-3%. This is just an illustrative example and the level of analysis varies with each case.

3.Hedgers: These are generally big investors, who have lot of money at stake and hence they look to have some hedging of their risk. The strategy followed by this section of investors is that they compare the stock in consideration with the index and on the basis of the result of this comparison they take their position in the stock. This can be explained by comparing the movement of nifty on the graph with Infosys movement as we have done in the figure given below.If we look at both the charts of nifty movement with Infosys movement we find that although both have fallen over the period but Infosys has witnessed some rallies and hence we can clearly say that a hedger will benefit by using technical Analysis and getting out at the periods when Infosys has given an upward rally.

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Is Technical Analysis Helpful? If we use only technical analysis in itself and do not consider other aspects it is very unlikely that we will have much success in the long run, particularly in case of short-term investments. But if we use Technical analysis along with fundamental analysis or discount the industry and company related news while considering the valuation, our chances of minimizing the risk brightens. One thing that we must realize is that technical analysis provides us only with the trend and judge future on that basis, it can be far from actual in few cases, one of them was the day Infosys crashed by 30% on a single day. By no imagination and no analysis one could have guessed the same or rather have come closed to it. Therefore the best use of technical analysis is to realize the trend and levels at which it will break the trend so that one is prepared to take positions when such trend breaks. It is because of this disadvantage that Technical analysis more useful only for short-term investing…

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES:Primary Objective: To find out appropriate time to buy and sell securities based on selected indicator and oscillator. Secondary Objectives: Understanding the technical analysis theories and methods to analyze charts of the 5 companies using technical analysis. To help suggest investment decision by suggesting buying and selling signals. To compare active trading strategy with passive trading strategy to measure this is more beneficial and profitable one. RESEACH DESIGN A research design specifies the methods and procedures for conducting survey .Research design is the plan and structure of investigation so conceived as to obtain answer to research questions. The plan is overall scheme of the research. ♦ RESEARCH DESIGN: Descriptive Research Design. ♦ DATA COLLECTION METHOD: Secondary data (1 year) ♦ SAMPLING TECHNIQUE: Sample of 5 companies has been selected on the basis of market capitalization from NSE. ♦ Reliance ♦ ONGC ♦ NTPC ♦ NMDC ♦ BHEL 19
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NSE Rank Company Name 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Reliance ONGC NTPC Bharti Airtel NMDC SBI BHEL 330.05 2,034.05 0.43 0.58 474.40 2,039.70 2,400.00 Last Price % Chg 1,838.00 -0.83 980.00 -1.84 192.30 -0.95 786.45 -1.16 52 wk High 2,535.00 1,220.00 233.00 1,036.00 Low

10 Jul 11:04 52 wk Market Cap (Rs. cr) 930.00 289,264.12 538.15 209,609.51 113.00 158,560.28 483.00 149,293.78 119.00 130,855.45 891.50 100,809.46 981.00 99,570.82

1,587.85 -1.01

Here in my project I have used descriptive research design. This research Design helps to find out (explore) meaning out of the secondary data. My research is totally dependent on the secondary database collected from the different relevant sources mentioned at the end in bibliography. Here I have not taken the data of the NSE site. LIMITATIONS TO THIS STUDY (a) (b) (c) (d) COST: - Various field works and visit to training centers, analyzing data with software may be costly. TIME: - The scope of study is vast and thus time constraint so I can’t do the all industry analysis and company analysis. Resistance to reveal the real investment information by the broker. Technical analysis software was not possible as it was available with main broker only so by analyzing the indicator and oscillator value. We can easily find out the position of the scripts but can not predict the exact values. Bharti airtel and SBI because the historical data of the stocks were not available on

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Here two techniques has been used for the analysis purpose which gives the buying and selling signals at the time when market gives opportunity to earn profit within short time span and techniques are as follows. 1)Moving Average Convergence Divergence - MACD A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.

Explanation of Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD There are three common methods used to interpret the MACD: 1. Crossovers - As shown in the chart above, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before entering into a position to avoid getting getting "faked out" or entering position too early, as Shown by the first arrow. 2. Divergence - When the security price diverges from the MACD. It signals the end of the current trend. 3. Dramatic rise - When the MACD rises dramatically - that is, the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer-term moving average - it is a signal that the security is overbought and will soon return to normal levels. Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line 22
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Trading Through Technical Analysis

because this signals the position of the short-term average relative to the long-term average. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the long-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below zero. As you can see from the chart above, the zero line often acts as an area of support and resistance for the indicator. 2)Relative Strength Index - RSI A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula: RSI= 100- 100 1+RS RS = Average of x days' up closes Average of x days' down closes

From the chart below, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. Explanation of Relative Strength Index – RSI A trader using RSI should be aware that large surges and drops in the price of an asset will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to other stockpicking tools.

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Signal Generating Procedure 1) MACD: MACD is an oscillator that measures the convergence and divergence between two exponential moving averages. A short term exponential moving average and a long term exponential moving average are calculated with the help of closing price data. A12 days and 48 days exponential moving averages constitute a popular combination. The difference between the short term EMA and long term EMA represents MACD. The MACD values for different days are derived by deducting the long term EMA for each day from the corresponding short term EMA for the day. These MACD values are plotted on an XY graph with MACD values on the Y axis and time period on the X axis. The MACD line would oscillate across the zero line. If the MACD line crosses the zero line from above the trend can be considered to have turned bearish, signaling a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the MACD line moves above the zero line from below, the trend can be said to have turned bullish and indicates buying opportunity. 2) RSI: The RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued. RSI values above 70 are considered to denote overbought condition and values below 30 are considered to denote oversold condition. When the RSI has crossed the 30 line from below to above 24
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and is rising, a buying opportunity is indicated. When it has crossed 70 line from above to below and is falling, a sell signal is indicated.

Here the analysis has been done using the signal generating procedure explained above. Now in this graph when MACD line(Red line) has crossed zero line from the above to below on the 15th then sell signal has been generated and on the other hand when MACD has

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crossed zero line from below to above on 24th the buy signal has been generated. This is all about the generating signals using MACD. Let us see that how RSI is used in generating the signals which help in buying and selling stocks. In the above graph we can see that when RSI has crossed the 70 line from above to below on 9th and then selling opportunity exist and sell signal has been generated. When we go ahead in the same month on 17th then buying opportunity exist and buy signal is generated. On the 25th also RSI line cross from above to below so that at that time also sell signal is generated. Investors are advised to follow the signals given by technical analyst and he can maximize the return following the advice. Now we are moving toward the return calculation on the basis of the calculation done using MACD and RSI. For more charts log on to www.icharts.in

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HOW BUY AND SELL SIGNALS WILL GENERATE THE PROFIT:
In the very beginning itself, buying and selling generating procedure has been explained but here issue is “how to generate profit using these signals?” So let us see that how these signals will generate the profit. It is also important for the investor that when and how many positions will be squared-off to earn the maximum return on the stock held. So it is explained as follows: First of all there is need to analyses the opportunity of buying and selling will be converted in to the actual transaction by the investor. Here it is assumed that all buy signals are converted in to actual transaction and it will get squared off at sell signal. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD.
Close Signal Signal Price (MACD) (RSI) 2667.25 Sell 2528.4 2553.85 2501.1 2530.75 Buy 2622.95 2635.7 Sell 2602.95 2667.7 Sell P&L (MACD) P&L (%) (RSI) (%) 12.07%

Date 8-May-08 9-May-08 12-May-08 13-May-08 14-May-08 15-May-08 16-May-08 20-May-08 21-May-08

3.98%

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22-May-08 23-May-08 26-May-08 27-May-08 28-May-08 29-May-08 30-May-08 2-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 4-Jun-08

2626.05 2556.2 2515.6 2495.1 2522.5 2462.7 2403.5 2358.8 Buy 2406.65 2307 Sell

Buy

-2.245%

Here in the above table, there are many buy and sell signals has been generated. So in this table we can see that on the 8 th of May there is one sell signal at which buy position has been squared off by the investor (MACD). So the profit/loss (12.07%) according to that signal has been shown in the MACD P&L column. But when it came to the RSI Signal column there are one buy signal and one sell signal is shown. But thereafter one sell signal and after buy signal is shown. So in this case buy position will be squared off at the sell signal, but sell signal will not be considered because there is no stock to sell as all the buy position has been squared off when sell signal arrived. Now, let us see that what happens to multiple buy signals and only alone sell signal.
Signal (MACD ) P&L (MACD) (%) P&L (RSI) (%)

Date 29-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 1-Oct-08 3-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 7-Oct-08 8-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 13-Oct-08 14-Oct-08

Close Price 1932.85 1949.35 1906.7 1761.45 1641.6 1674.65 1648.55 1527.6 1571.4 1621.05

Signal (RSI) Buy

Buy

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15-Oct-08 16-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 20-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 22-Oct-08 23-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 27-Oct-08 28-Oct-08 29-Oct-08 31-Oct-08

1520.2 1391.95 1306.05 1320.9 1394.95 1316.8 1217.65 1019.5 1077 1153 1201.75 1375.45

Buy

Buy

Sell

-7.28%

Now in this case, (RSI column) all the buy signals on the dates (29-Sep-08, 13-Oct-08, 20-Oct-08, 27-Oct-08) has been squared
off on the selling opportunity existed on 31-Oct-08.in this method all the buy signals has been averaged and the price obtaind is the average of all the buy signals. So this strategy has been adopted in all the companies selected for the technical analysis. Above multiple buy signals has been squared off at the sell signal generated thereafter. So here loss has been generated which is -7.28 %( in the RSI P&L column). Now in this section we will see that is it technical analysis really helpful in generating more revenue compare to that of investing it once and forget it for a long time. In short long term investment generates more profit or this frequent buy sell of the security will yield more profit to investor. So here comparison has been made between the active trading strategies (frequent Buy-sell) or passive trading strategy (invests for a long period and do not sell in between). For more information about the tables explained above. Detailed analysis has been found in the APPENDIX.

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Technical analysis has been done on the basis of this strategy has generated the following result: Reliance Particulars Buy signals Sell signals Total number of Active Trading MACD RSI 9 20 8 17 17 37 Passive Trading MACD RSI 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 38.80% 0 38.80%

total 29 25 54

signal Number of times profit 2 8 10 1 Number of times loss 5 3 8 0 Average profit 10.05% 10.68% 20.73% 46.55% Average loss 2.03% 3.25% 0.0528 0 Total profit 9.95% 3 75.69% 85.64% 46.55%

ONGC: Particulars Buy signals Sell signals Total number of signal Number of times profit

Active Trading MACD RSI 10 12 9 19 19 31 3 11

Total 22 28 50 14

Passive Trading MACD RSI 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 30

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Number of times loss Average profit Average loss Total profit

5 10.41% 4.86% 6.93%

1 8.38%

6 18.79

0 35.46% 0 35.46%

0 6.58% 0 6.58%

% 3.40% 8.26% 88.78% 95.71 %

NTPC Particulars Buy signals Sell signals Total number of

Active Trading MACD RSI 11 18 12 19 23 37

Total 29 31 60

Passive Trading MACD RSI 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 7.65% 0 7.65% 1 0 3.02% 0 3.02%

signal Number of times profit 4 Number of times loss 6 Average profit 5.55% Average loss 2.37% Total profit 7.98%

7 11 1 7 15.58% 21.13% 2.74% 5.11% 106% 114.30 %

NMDC Particulars Buy signals Sell signals Total number of signal Number of times profit Number of times loss Average profit Average loss Total profit

Active Trading MACD 6 10 16 2 5 28.21% 8.94% RSI 16 9 25 3 2 13.01% Total 22 19 41 5 7 41.22% 172.11%

Passive Trading MACD 1 1 2 1 0 44.45% 0 44.45% RSI 1 1 2 1 0 29.04% 0 29.04%

111.44% 120.38%

11.74% -183.85%

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BHEL Particulars Buy signals Sell signals Total number of signal Number of times profit Number of times loss Average profit Average loss Total profit

Active Trading MACD 8 7 15 2 3 5.35% 4.96% 4.18% RSI 20 16 36 9 1 6.94% 12.55% 49.91% total 28 23 51 11 4 12.29 % 17.51 % 54.09 %

Passive Trading MACD 1 1 2 1 0 27.96% 0 27.96% RSI 1 1 2 1 0 9.59% 0 9.59%

Where, Average profit = gross profit/number of times profit generated Average loss = loss generated/ number of times loss generated Total profit = gross profit -- total loss generated

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

Findings:
 I found that 166 RSI signals and 90 MACD signals have been generated in a year and total are 256 signals.  NTPC has 23 MACD signals and Reliance & NTPC has 37 RSI signals generated in a year which are highest.  NTPC has highest total number of signal generated that is 60 signals in a year.  ONGC has reasonable profit margin in both MACD and RSI i.e. 6.93% and 88.78% respectively where as NTPC has 7.98% & 106% respectively.  NMDC has more average profit for both MACD and RSI 28.21% &13.01% respectively.  All companies have high profit for MACD except NTPC.  NTPC has lowest average loss for MACD and RSI i.e. 2.37% &2.74% respectively.  NMDC has highest profit in MACD i.e. 44.45% and reliance has highest profit in RSI i.e. 44.45%  NMDC is making losses in using RSI i.e. -183.85%  Active trading strategy is more useful and gives more return compare to passive trading strategy.

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

RECOMMENDATIONS:  It is recommended that one should use RSI because it is more effective then MACD as it has more accuracy and generate more signals then MACD and provide more clear guidelines for entry and exit from the market.  One should go for active trading strategy because it is more profitable then passive trading strategy.

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

BIBLIOGRAPHY: Books:  Kevin S. (2007). “Portfolio Management”. Second edition, Prentice-Hall of India Pvt. Ltd.  Donald R.C., & Pamela S.S.(2003). Business Research Methods, Eighth Edition, Tata McGraw-Hill Edition. Sites:  www.investopedia.com  www.icharts.in  www.nseindia.com  www.Moneycontrol.com

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

APPENDIX Tables showing analysis of buy and sell signals & profit
BHEL

Date 1-Apr-08 2-Apr-08 3-Apr-08 4-Apr-08 7-Apr-08 8-Apr-08 9-Apr-08 10-Apr-08 11-Apr-08 15-Apr-08 16-Apr-08 17-Apr-08 21-Apr-08 22-Apr-08 23-Apr-08 24-Apr-08 25-Apr-08 28-Apr-08 29-Apr-08 30-Apr-08 2-May-08 5-May-08 6-May-08 7-May-08

Close Price 1892.2 1853.5 1752.75 1633.4 1636 1714.25 1775.8 1768.35 1828 1833.2 1780.7 1785.1 1771.15 1872.45 1827.35 1850.7 1870 1866.3 1891.7 1902.15 1910.2 1910.6 1859.15 1785.4

Signal (MACD) sell

Signal (RSI)

P&L P&L (MACD)() (RSI)(%) -9.94%%

buy

sell

8.45

buy

sell

-0.38 36

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

8-May-08 9-May-08 12-May-08 13-May-08 14-May-08 15-May-08 16-May-08 20-May-08 21-May-08 22-May-08 23-May-08 26-May-08 27-May-08 28-May-08 29-May-08 30-May-08 2-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 4-Jun-08 5-Jun-08 6-Jun-08 9-Jun-08 10-Jun-08 11-Jun-08 12-Jun-08 13-Jun-08 16-Jun-08 17-Jun-08 18-Jun-08 19-Jun-08 20-Jun-08 23-Jun-08 24-Jun-08 25-Jun-08 26-Jun-08 27-Jun-08 30-Jun-08 1-Jul-08 2-Jul-08 3-Jul-08 4-Jul-08 7-Jul-08 8-Jul-08 9-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 11-Jul-08

1761.5 1724.8 1745.75 1734.5 1744.6 1801.4 1798.85 1735.7 1771.6 1748.45 1745.1 1655.65 1659.7 1612.5 1597.65 1663.05 1594.15 sell 1550.15 1475.05 1444.65 1423.3 1375.25 1383.5 1481.85 1510.2 1557.55 1526.8 1540.4 1501.4 1423.85 1405.15 1359.65 1398.4 1436.2 1436.75 1381.25 1379.45 1356.1 Buy 1423 1402.05 1500.2 1467.9 1498.7 1572.05 1563.4 1521.6

buy

buy

buy

buy

Sell

1.64%

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

14-Jul-08 15-Jul-08 16-Jul-08 17-Jul-08 18-Jul-08 21-Jul-08 22-Jul-08 23-Jul-08 24-Jul-08 25-Jul-08 28-Jul-08 29-Jul-08 30-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 1-Aug-08 4-Aug-08 5-Aug-08 6-Aug-08 7-Aug-08 8-Aug-08 11-Aug-08 12-Aug-08 13-Aug-08 14-Aug-08 18-Aug-08 19-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 21-Aug-08 22-Aug-08 25-Aug-08 26-Aug-08 27-Aug-08 28-Aug-08 29-Aug-08 1-Sep-08 2-Sep-08 4-Sep-08 5-Sep-08 8-Sep-08 9-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 12-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 16-Sep-08 17-Sep-08

1467.25 1368.85 1378.6 1452.2 1531.8 1506.3 1597.4 1773.35 1727.6 1654 1649.7 1593.8 1667.15 1682 1754.9 1716.25 Buy 1769.9 1828.45 1771.8 1783.35 1830.95 1808.45 1786.4 1707.8 Sell 1693.85 1677.95 1734.6 1671 1716.4 1688.85 1721.9 1682.05 1629.55 1707.85 1722.35 1785.9 1766.2 1732.25 1791.7 1750.75 1711.8 1665.3 Sell 1698.5 1627.6 1646 1604.25

Buy Sell 11.11%

Sell

Sell

Sell

10.04% Buy

Buy

Sell

6.78%

Buy 38

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

18-Sep-08 19-Sep-08 22-Sep-08 23-Sep-08 24-Sep-08 25-Sep-08 26-Sep-08 29-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 1-Oct-08 3-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 7-Oct-08 8-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 13-Oct-08 14-Oct-08 15-Oct-08 16-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 20-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 22-Oct-08 23-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 27-Oct-08 28-Oct-08 29-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 3-Nov-08 4-Nov-08 5-Nov-08 6-Nov-08 7-Nov-08 10-Nov-08 11-Nov-08 12-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 17-Nov-08 18-Nov-08 19-Nov-08 20-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 24-Nov-08 25-Nov-08 26-Nov-08

1613.55 1708.85 1685.85 1626.05 1663.8 1633.9 1550.55 1512.6 1591.25 1591.55 1569.75 1448.6 1496.85 1468.75 1350.5 1499.8 1495.65 1397.55 1312.7 1191.55 1097.75 1142.15 1138.25 1172.55 1099.85 1079.85 1146.45 1176.35 1291.7 1341.7 Buy 1412.6 1378 1389.2 1402.85 1515.95 1369.3 1336 1280.5 Sell 1292.15 1267.95 1230.85 1191.5 1279.3 1302 1283.6 1298.1

Sell

4.87%

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

Sell

12.55%

-4.56%

Buy

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

28-Nov-08 1-Dec-08 2-Dec-08 3-Dec-08 4-Dec-08 5-Dec-08 8-Dec-08 10-Dec-08 11-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 15-Dec-08 16-Dec-08 17-Dec-08 18-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 22-Dec-08 23-Dec-08 24-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 29-Dec-08 30-Dec-08 31-Dec-08 1-Jan-09 2-Jan-09 5-Jan-09 6-Jan-09 7-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 12-Jan-09 13-Jan-09 14-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 19-Jan-09 20-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 27-Jan-09 28-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 2-Feb-09 3-Feb-09 4-Feb-09 5-Feb-09

1359.6 1270.1 1274.75 1268.85 1357.7 1338.05 1361.5 1413.35 1374.15 1362.5 1374.55 1403.45 1337.35 1433.85 1442.2 1401.25 1364.35 1351.7 1300.6 1346.25 1376.15 1362.6 1402.2 1412.05 1438.4 1467.25 1441.8 1417.2 1344.35 1358.05 1385.95 1350.9 1403.85 1417.05 1401.7 1349 1368.45 1320.75 1378.75 1398.45 1358.25 1320.8 1306.4 1341.35 1357.25 1346.85

Buy

Sell

6.90%

Sell

Buy

Buy

Sell Sell Buy 0.66%

9.79%

Buy Buy

Buy

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

6-Feb-09 9-Feb-09 10-Feb-09 11-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 18-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 24-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 2-Mar-09 3-Mar-09 4-Mar-09 5-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 9-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 16-Mar-09 17-Mar-09 18-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 23-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 25-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 31-Mar-09

1365.55 1391 1452.4 1447.9 1410.7 1467.4 1400.15 1381.25 1398.35 1383.2 1364.1 1361.6 1380.15 1405.45 1403.85 1383.8 1364.55 1333.1 1283 1311.15 1301.05 1342.05 1371.35 1404.85 1401.65 Buy 1459.25 1411.65 1378.05 1410.3 1443.7 1482.05 1565.9 1549.8 1472.5 1510.55

Sell Sell

7.27%

Buy

Buy

Sell

5.69%

Sell

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

NMDC P&L P&L Signal(RSI) (MACD)(%) (RSI) (%) -7.87%

Date 1-Apr-08 2-Apr-08 3-Apr-08 4-Apr-08 7-Apr-08 8-Apr-08 9-Apr-08 10-Apr-08 11-Apr-08 15-Apr-08 16-Apr-08 17-Apr-08 21-Apr-08 22-Apr-08 23-Apr-08 24-Apr-08 25-Apr-08 28-Apr-08 29-Apr-08 30-Apr-08 2-May-08 5-May-08 6-May-08 7-May-08 8-May-08 9-May-08 12-May-08 13-May-08 14-May-08 15-May-08 16-May-08 20-May-08 21-May-08 22-May-08 23-May-08

Close Price 10941.4 10814.7 10354.1 10188 11206.8 12327.5 13560.25 1423.85 1495.05 1420.3 1349.3 1302.9 1310.65 1255.65 1211.45 1226.6 1287.95 1352.35 1346.45 1413.8 1484.5 1529.3 1476.65 1418.9 1489.85 1441.95 1481.75 1458.65 1487.4 1486.55 1448.65 1405.7 492 512.05 486.45

Signal (MACD) sell

sell

buy

sell

buy

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26-May-08 27-May-08 28-May-08 29-May-08 30-May-08 2-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 4-Jun-08 5-Jun-08 6-Jun-08 9-Jun-08 10-Jun-08 11-Jun-08 12-Jun-08 13-Jun-08 16-Jun-08 17-Jun-08 18-Jun-08 19-Jun-08 20-Jun-08 23-Jun-08 24-Jun-08 25-Jun-08 26-Jun-08 27-Jun-08 30-Jun-08 1-Jul-08 2-Jul-08 3-Jul-08 4-Jul-08 7-Jul-08 8-Jul-08 9-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 11-Jul-08 14-Jul-08 15-Jul-08 16-Jul-08 17-Jul-08 18-Jul-08 21-Jul-08 22-Jul-08 23-Jul-08 24-Jul-08

462.15 439.05 428.45 430.2 413.3 392.65 sell 379.6 360.65 359.55 373.25 379.75 378 380.95 381.9 375.2 379.35 377.75 380.55 372.15 353.6 335.95 319.15 305.95 302.1 287 272.65 259.05 Sell 255.85 243.1 230.95 219.4 230.4 241.95 251.7 241.4 250.9 238.35 226.45 218.8 229.75 223.2 234.2 245.95 258.25

buy

Buy

Sell

-218.81

Buy

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

25-Jul-08 28-Jul-08 29-Jul-08 30-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 1-Aug-08 4-Aug-08 5-Aug-08 6-Aug-08 7-Aug-08 8-Aug-08 11-Aug-08 12-Aug-08 13-Aug-08 14-Aug-08 18-Aug-08 19-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 21-Aug-08 22-Aug-08 25-Aug-08 26-Aug-08 27-Aug-08 28-Aug-08 29-Aug-08 1-Sep-08 2-Sep-08 4-Sep-08 5-Sep-08 8-Sep-08 9-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 12-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 16-Sep-08 17-Sep-08 18-Sep-08 19-Sep-08 22-Sep-08 23-Sep-08 24-Sep-08 25-Sep-08 26-Sep-08

271.2 284.8 299.05 314 329.7 346.2 362.95 362.1 344 327.45 343.85 361.05 359.95 359.1 352 346.45 332.95 349.6 332.85 326.6 313.75 307.9 303.45 289.5 304 310.85 312.05 313.35 298.35 296.45 298.2 284.45 282.4 279.2 252.8 231.5 222.95 206.5 216.85 227.7 238.25 238 242.25 233.4

Buy

Sell Buy Buy Sell

21.16

24.12

Sell

Buy

-8.44

Buy

Buy

Sell

-15.49

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

29-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 1-Oct-08 3-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 7-Oct-08 8-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 13-Oct-08 14-Oct-08 15-Oct-08 16-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 20-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 22-Oct-08 23-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 27-Oct-08 28-Oct-08 29-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 3-Nov-08 4-Nov-08 5-Nov-08 6-Nov-08 7-Nov-08 10-Nov-08 11-Nov-08 12-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 17-Nov-08 18-Nov-08 19-Nov-08 20-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 24-Nov-08 25-Nov-08 26-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 1-Dec-08 2-Dec-08 3-Dec-08 4-Dec-08

221.75 215.5 220.55 216.25 205.45 195.7 190.3 183 184.05 191.05 184.5 184 175 169.55 173.05 165.55 157.4 149.6 142.15 144.95 142.5 143.7 150.9 Buy 158.45 158.7 153.2 155.6 180.55 185.45 176.85 173 159.55 150.4 150.5 141.3 142.9 Sell 140.6 139.45 129.65 126.85 128.5 123.85 Buy 133.3 137.5

Buy

Sell

-4.07

-5.60

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

5-Dec-08 8-Dec-08 10-Dec-08 11-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 15-Dec-08 16-Dec-08 17-Dec-08 18-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 22-Dec-08 23-Dec-08 24-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 29-Dec-08 30-Dec-08 31-Dec-08 1-Jan-09 2-Jan-09 5-Jan-09 6-Jan-09 7-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 12-Jan-09 13-Jan-09 14-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 19-Jan-09 20-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 27-Jan-09 28-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 2-Feb-09 3-Feb-09 4-Feb-09 5-Feb-09 6-Feb-09 9-Feb-09 10-Feb-09

131.9 138.05 139.25 141 141.8 157.2 181.2 170.05 174 171.85 167.65 162.75 163.9 156.35 162.05 165.5 165.75 191.3 Sell 188.75 187.75 184.65 160.15 147.95 147 145.45 149.35 145.75 151.2 153.3 150.75 148.05 147.15 145.6 147.45 170.4 165.8 166.3 164.7 164.1 165.1 159.95 159.2 171.6 Buy 170.3

Sell

Buy

35.26

Buy

Buy

Buy Sell 10.91 46

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

11-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 18-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 24-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 2-Mar-09 3-Mar-09 4-Mar-09 5-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 9-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 16-Mar-09 17-Mar-09 18-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 23-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 25-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 31-Mar-09

168.85 167.8 168.4 166 161.75 159.95 Sell 158.65 152.65 152.85 150.05 147.65 151.7 150.65 Sell 145.6 146.2 146.8 143.4 142.45 143.3 143.5 150 150.1 152.4 151.65 150.8 162.5 Buy 155.65 156.65 155.1 159.85 155.65 155.8

-7.28

Buy

Buy

Sell

4.01

Sell

NTPC Signal Date Close Price (MACD) 1-Apr-08 195.15 Sell 2-Apr-08 193.8 3-Apr-08 193.95 Signal (RSI) P&L P&L (MACD)% (RSI)% 1.05%

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4-Apr-08 7-Apr-08 8-Apr-08 9-Apr-08 10-Apr-08 11-Apr-08 15-Apr-08 16-Apr-08 17-Apr-08 21-Apr-08 22-Apr-08 23-Apr-08 24-Apr-08 25-Apr-08 28-Apr-08 29-Apr-08 30-Apr-08 2-May-08 5-May-08 6-May-08 7-May-08 8-May-08 9-May-08 12-May-08 13-May-08 14-May-08 15-May-08 16-May-08 20-May-08 21-May-08 22-May-08 23-May-08 26-May-08 27-May-08 28-May-08 29-May-08 30-May-08 2-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 4-Jun-08 5-Jun-08 6-Jun-08 9-Jun-08 10-Jun-08 11-Jun-08

189.3 190.2 186.65 187.55 186 186.85 191.4 187.35 189.4 194.2 195.9 195.9 190.3 192.65 193 194.75 196.75 200.75 198.3 196.1 194.9 192.75 191.95 192.1 191.55 190.05 191.35 191 186 182 178.75 176.8 175.55 177.45 176.8 171.25 172.35 161.4 159.9 157.85 166.9 165.6 163.3 161.55 165.7

Buy sell

2.38

sell

Buy sell 3.00%

Buy

Buy sell

buy

sell

-8.95%

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

12-Jun-08 13-Jun-08 16-Jun-08 17-Jun-08 18-Jun-08 19-Jun-08 20-Jun-08 23-Jun-08 24-Jun-08 25-Jun-08 26-Jun-08 27-Jun-08 30-Jun-08 1-Jul-08 2-Jul-08 3-Jul-08 4-Jul-08 7-Jul-08 8-Jul-08 9-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 11-Jul-08 16-Jul-08 17-Jul-08 18-Jul-08 21-Jul-08 22-Jul-08 23-Jul-08 24-Jul-08 25-Jul-08 28-Jul-08 29-Jul-08 30-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 1-Aug-08 4-Aug-08 5-Aug-08 6-Aug-08 7-Aug-08 8-Aug-08 11-Aug-08 12-Aug-08 13-Aug-08 14-Aug-08 18-Aug-08

163.15 161.25 166.05 168.2 167.3 165.8 162.9 162.15 155.6 sell 156.75 155.2 150.8 151.9 153.15 Buy 158.9 152.55 153.9 155.6 161.3 168.45 166.95 162 162.35 165.3 173.8 181.5 184.95 190.45 185.55 187.7 184.75 178.5 170.9 170.35 176.8 Buy 174.75 182.8 180.6 183.6 184.95 185.8 185.15 186.4 181.5 180.35

sell

-6.68%

Sell

Sell

Sell Buy 49

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Trading Through Technical Analysis

19-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 21-Aug-08 22-Aug-08 25-Aug-08 26-Aug-08 27-Aug-08 28-Aug-08 29-Aug-08 1-Sep-08 2-Sep-08 4-Sep-08 5-Sep-08 8-Sep-08 9-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 12-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 16-Sep-08 17-Sep-08 18-Sep-08 19-Sep-08 22-Sep-08 23-Sep-08 24-Sep-08 25-Sep-08 26-Sep-08 29-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 1-Oct-08 3-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 7-Oct-08 8-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 14-Oct-08 15-Oct-08 16-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 20-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 22-Oct-08 23-Oct-08 24-Oct-08

181.75 183.9 173.5 170.55 171 172.1 171.3 169.7 174.9 173.2 177.15 174.1 173.5 181.55 179.5 178.1 173.25 173.95 170.4 170.4 169.1 174.05 182.95 181.75 179.55 177.95 179.05 174.35 166.25 171.9 173.95 171.85 168.45 176.45 175.75 165.25 174.7 167.3 165.9 150.25 151.5 152.45 144.3 143.2 130.45

Sell Buy Buy Buy

3.27%

Sell

3.04%

Sell Buy Buy Sell

-1.64%

6.96%

Sell

Buy

-4.69%

Buy

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50

Trading Through Technical Analysis

27-Oct-08 28-Oct-08 29-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 3-Nov-08 4-Nov-08 5-Nov-08 6-Nov-08 7-Nov-08 10-Nov-08 11-Nov-08 12-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 17-Nov-08 18-Nov-08 19-Nov-08 20-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 24-Nov-08 25-Nov-08 26-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 1-Dec-08 2-Dec-08 3-Dec-08 4-Dec-08 8-Dec-08 10-Dec-08 11-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 15-Dec-08 16-Dec-08 17-Dec-08 18-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 22-Dec-08 23-Dec-08 24-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 29-Dec-08 30-Dec-08 31-Dec-08 1-Jan-09 2-Jan-09 5-Jan-09

125.75 132.55 134 141.1 150.95 151.9 147.5 144.4 151.4 162.85 151.05 150.2 149.35 150.65 139.3 136 138.55 150.55 153.5 153.9 164.5 159.45 156.45 160.15 158.95 165.05 166.25 168.9 167.1 164.9 168.55 174.65 173.8 183 182.2 181.7 179.7 177.9 176.8 177.05 181.55 180.6 182.5 184.15 180.8

Buy

Sell Buy Buy Sell 6.60%

Sell

-0.27%

Buy

Buy Sell 13.11%

Sell

Sell

Sell

Sell

Sell

14.88% 51

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

Trading Through Technical Analysis

6-Jan-09 7-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 12-Jan-09 13-Jan-09 14-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 19-Jan-09 20-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 27-Jan-09 28-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 2-Feb-09 3-Feb-09 4-Feb-09 5-Feb-09 6-Feb-09 9-Feb-09 10-Feb-09 11-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 18-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 24-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 2-Mar-09 3-Mar-09 4-Mar-09 5-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 9-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 16-Mar-09

177.05 171.45 178.25 170.9 168 171.6 166.7 179.85 178.4 185.95 179.95 178.55 179.85 190.1 191.25 190.25 189.65 181.2 176.9 176.85 176.85 180.35 182.95 180.3 180.45 179.85 182.95 178.05 174.15 176.4 179.1 177.75 178.2 180.2 184.75 185 178.85 178.8 179.85 172.8 177.65 176.65 174.05 170.25 171.15

Buy Buy

Sell

6.89%

Buy

Sell Sell -4.91%

Buy

Buy

Buy

Sell Buy

-2.72%

Buy 52

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

Trading Through Technical Analysis

17-Mar-09 18-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 23-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 25-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 31-Mar-09

173.85 175.1 178.6 177.55 183.7 Buy 181.2 177 181.3 182.1 183.5 179.85

Sell

2.73%

Sell

ONGC Close Signal Date Price (MACD) 2-Apr-08 1012.7 Buy 3-Apr-08 1018.65 4-Apr-08 1005.2 7-Apr-08 1018.6 8-Apr-08 1012 9-Apr-08 1014 10-Apr-08 1003.15 Sell 11-Apr-08 1002.85 15-Apr-08 1026.05 Buy 16-Apr-08 1017.55 Signal(RSI) P&L (MACD)% P&L (RSI)%

-0.952001 sell 7.21 53

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

Trading Through Technical Analysis

17-Apr-08 21-Apr-08 22-Apr-08 23-Apr-08 24-Apr-08 25-Apr-08 28-Apr-08 29-Apr-08 30-Apr-08 2-May-08 5-May-08 6-May-08 7-May-08 8-May-08 9-May-08 12-May-08 13-May-08 14-May-08 15-May-08 20-May-08 21-May-08 22-May-08 23-May-08 26-May-08 27-May-08 28-May-08 29-May-08 30-May-08 2-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 4-Jun-08 5-Jun-08 6-Jun-08 9-Jun-08 10-Jun-08 11-Jun-08 12-Jun-08 13-Jun-08 16-Jun-08 17-Jun-08 18-Jun-08 19-Jun-08 20-Jun-08 23-Jun-08 24-Jun-08 25-Jun-08 26-Jun-08 27-Jun-08

1017.3 1031.5 1051.95 1043.6 1032.4 1055.15 1048.5 1051.65 1033.05 1039.95 1039.85 1043.5 1038.7 1029.95 sell 1031.6 1029.5 1000.3 939.3 951.35 936.8 941.55 926.1 900.15 894.9 884.45 873.85 853.25 865.2 833.1 839.3 Buy 886.2 957.1 938.95 879.95 829.55 831.4 832.4 841.95 845.05 883.25 881.95 855.7 867.65 884.8 853.85 865.4 871.75 832.5

sell sell

0.38%

Buy

sell

7.85%

Buy

Sell

5.62%

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

54

Trading Through Technical Analysis

30-Jun-08 1-Jul-08 2-Jul-08 3-Jul-08 4-Jul-08 7-Jul-08 8-Jul-08 9-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 11-Jul-08 16-Jul-08 17-Jul-08 18-Jul-08 21-Jul-08 22-Jul-08 23-Jul-08 24-Jul-08 25-Jul-08 28-Jul-08 29-Jul-08 30-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 1-Aug-08 4-Aug-08 5-Aug-08 6-Aug-08 7-Aug-08 8-Aug-08 11-Aug-08 12-Aug-08 13-Aug-08 14-Aug-08 18-Aug-08 19-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 21-Aug-08 22-Aug-08 25-Aug-08 26-Aug-08 27-Aug-08 28-Aug-08 29-Aug-08 1-Sep-08 2-Sep-08 4-Sep-08 5-Sep-08 8-Sep-08 9-Sep-08

815.05 793.8 859.35 859.4 876.5 882.55 867.7 877.3 882.7 849.5 864.1 902.55 944 955.25 964.15 994.55 1027.05 983.6 1011.6 983.45 990.5 996.25 997.55 982.15 1003.05 1016.9 1024.35 1063.9 1105.4 1088.3 1083.9 1066.3 1074.4 1063.15 1035.7 1010.3 1019.2 1014.55 1015.9 1006.65 999.25 1023.25 1031.15 1102.45 1068.35 1071.95 1099.7 1102.4

sell Buy

-2.98%

Sell

Sell

Sell

20.43%

Sell

Buy Buy

Sell

9.36% 55

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

Trading Through Technical Analysis

10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 12-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 16-Sep-08 17-Sep-08 18-Sep-08 19-Sep-08 22-Sep-08 23-Sep-08 24-Sep-08 25-Sep-08 26-Sep-08 29-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 1-Oct-08 3-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 7-Oct-08 8-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 13-Oct-08 14-Oct-08 15-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 20-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 22-Oct-08 23-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 27-Oct-08 28-Oct-08 29-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 3-Nov-08 4-Nov-08 5-Nov-08 6-Nov-08 7-Nov-08 10-Nov-08 11-Nov-08 12-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 17-Nov-08 18-Nov-08 19-Nov-08 20-Nov-08 21-Nov-08

1077.95 1035.9 1023.4 961.35 952.5 978.75 1001.75 1071.25 1059.7 1054.9 1061.8 1071.05 1035.4 1021.55 1034.2 1040.75 1020.05 981.3 987.4 963.5 916.3 917 881.55 838.7 776.1 779.45 789.45 761.2 776.35 658 611.8 644.25 648.35 669.1 710.6 760.3 755.15 743.7 740 805.45 735.85 711.8 693 700.45 667.6 652.5 651.1 687.65

Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell

-7.26%

7.64%

-1.35%

Buy Buy

Sell

-3.40%

Sell Buy

-6.44%

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

56

Trading Through Technical Analysis

24-Nov-08 25-Nov-08 26-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 1-Dec-08 2-Dec-08 3-Dec-08 4-Dec-08 5-Dec-08 10-Dec-08 11-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 15-Dec-08 16-Dec-08 17-Dec-08 18-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 22-Dec-08 23-Dec-08 24-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 29-Dec-08 30-Dec-08 31-Dec-08 1-Jan-09 2-Jan-09 5-Jan-09 6-Jan-09 7-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 12-Jan-09 13-Jan-09 14-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 19-Jan-09 20-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 27-Jan-09 28-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 2-Feb-09 3-Feb-09 4-Feb-09 5-Feb-09

678.5 685.85 700.25 693.8 681 661.85 651.75 674.5 655.45 677 664.95 646.35 673.85 713.35 717.6 732.4 710.95 710.65 688.6 670.65 642.95 656.25 671.9 667.1 684.8 680.3 725.25 718.9 690.6 669.1 653.5 630.6 648.6 625.35 648.7 670.25 664.15 650.05 649.5 646.5 621.15 641.25 639.1 654.95 639.5 651.4 665.5 663.6

Sell

7.02%

Buy Buy Sell 11.74%

Sell Buy

-10.95%

Buy Sell Sell Buy -4.10% 8.71%

Buy

Buy

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

57

Trading Through Technical Analysis

6-Feb-09 9-Feb-09 10-Feb-09 11-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 18-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 24-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 2-Mar-09 3-Mar-09 4-Mar-09 5-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 9-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 16-Mar-09 17-Mar-09 18-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 23-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 25-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 31-Mar-09 RELIANCE

683.25 724.4 717.45 706.75 693.6 704.8 687.5 677.4 670.8 679.85 672.9 679.8 700.35 719.75 691 664.45 648.45 663.85 650.05 673.35 666.4 682.55 706.4 715.6 715.9 723.85 731.2 755 794.2 779.2 763.7 807.6 808.25 782.45 780.2

Sell

11.82%

Buy

Sell

6.80%

Sell Sell

Signal Date Close Price (MACD) 1-Apr-08 2345.25 Buy 2-Apr-08 2343.55 3-Apr-08 2396.05 4-Apr-08 2321.15 7-Apr-08 2404.9 8-Apr-08 2381.75 9-Apr-08 2418.25 10-Apr-08 2468.65 11-Apr-08 2551.55 15-Apr-08 2611.8

Signal (RSI)

P&L (MACD) (%)

P&L(RSI) (%)

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

58

Trading Through Technical Analysis

16-Apr-08 17-Apr-08 21-Apr-08 22-Apr-08 23-Apr-08 24-Apr-08 25-Apr-08 28-Apr-08 29-Apr-08 30-Apr-08 2-May-08 5-May-08 6-May-08 7-May-08 8-May-08 9-May-08 12-May-08 13-May-08 14-May-08 15-May-08 16-May-08 20-May-08 21-May-08 22-May-08 23-May-08 26-May-08 27-May-08 28-May-08 29-May-08 30-May-08 2-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 4-Jun-08 5-Jun-08 6-Jun-08 9-Jun-08 10-Jun-08 11-Jun-08 12-Jun-08 13-Jun-08 16-Jun-08 17-Jun-08 18-Jun-08 19-Jun-08 20-Jun-08 23-Jun-08 24-Jun-08 25-Jun-08

2642.5 2640.05 2643.6 2607.35 2577.6 2582.65 2624.5 2591.4 2659.95 2614.5 2674.75 2669.2 2650 2688.95 2667.25 Sell 2528.4 2553.85 2501.1 2530.75 2622.95 2635.7 2602.95 2667.7 2626.05 2556.2 2515.6 2495.1 2522.5 2462.7 2403.5 2358.8 Buy 2406.65 2307 Sell 2246.8 2238.5 2162.7 2197.75 2261.4 2277.3 2270.4 2282.35 2332.9 2287.1 2248.15 2099.2 2025.7 2062.7 2136

sell

Sell

12.07

Buy Sell Sell 3.98

Buy

-2.245

Buy

Sell

-0.58

Buy

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

59

Trading Through Technical Analysis

26-Jun-08 27-Jun-08 30-Jun-08 1-Jul-08 2-Jul-08 3-Jul-08 4-Jul-08 7-Jul-08 8-Jul-08 9-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 11-Jul-08 14-Jul-08 15-Jul-08 16-Jul-08 17-Jul-08 18-Jul-08 21-Jul-08 22-Jul-08 23-Jul-08 24-Jul-08 25-Jul-08 28-Jul-08 29-Jul-08 30-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 1-Aug-08 4-Aug-08 5-Aug-08 6-Aug-08 7-Aug-08 8-Aug-08 11-Aug-08 12-Aug-08 13-Aug-08 14-Aug-08 18-Aug-08 19-Aug-08 20-Aug-08 21-Aug-08 22-Aug-08 25-Aug-08 26-Aug-08 27-Aug-08 28-Aug-08 29-Aug-08 1-Sep-08 2-Sep-08

2239.55 2182.65 2095.15 2044.15 2144 2070.1 2097.9 2028.2 1979.45 2079.15 2046.65 2016.1 2043.45 1977.4 1943.5 2018.55 2113.2 2152.85 2152.15 2267.3 2308.05 2147.1 2179.9 2083.1 2165.5 2207.5 2297.6 2242.4 2276.05 2298.6 2272.6 2251.8 2325.25 2347.25 2336.85 2276.7 2224.8 2219.6 2246.35 2212.65 2244.8 2232 2179.35 2148 2070.85 2136.2 2141.65 2212.75

Sell Buy

7.90

Sell Buy Buy

-0.03%

Sell

15.79

Sell

8.03%

Buy Sell Sell Buy -2.13

Buy

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

60

Trading Through Technical Analysis

4-Sep-08 5-Sep-08 8-Sep-08 9-Sep-08 10-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 12-Sep-08 15-Sep-08 16-Sep-08 17-Sep-08 18-Sep-08 19-Sep-08 22-Sep-08 23-Sep-08 24-Sep-08 25-Sep-08 26-Sep-08 29-Sep-08 30-Sep-08 1-Oct-08 3-Oct-08 6-Oct-08 7-Oct-08 8-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 13-Oct-08 14-Oct-08 15-Oct-08 16-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 20-Oct-08 21-Oct-08 22-Oct-08 23-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 27-Oct-08 28-Oct-08 29-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 3-Nov-08 4-Nov-08 5-Nov-08 6-Nov-08 7-Nov-08 10-Nov-08 11-Nov-08 12-Nov-08 14-Nov-08

2152.25 2080.9 2133.2 2142.55 2082.65 1997.4 1932.65 1886.95 1928.05 1876.65 1938.25 2055.1 2039.1 2006.45 2046.1 2025.7 1963.2 1932.85 1949.35 1906.7 1761.45 1641.6 1674.65 1648.55 1527.6 1571.4 1621.05 1520.2 1391.95 1306.05 1320.9 1394.95 1316.8 1217.65 1019.5 1077 1153 1201.75 1375.45 1441.7 1451.6 Sell 1269.05 1170.55 1220.75 1303.1 1207.7 1162.2 1146.75

Buy Sell -1.88

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy Sell -7.28

Buy

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

61

Trading Through Technical Analysis

17-Nov-08 18-Nov-08 19-Nov-08 20-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 24-Nov-08 25-Nov-08 26-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 1-Dec-08 2-Dec-08 3-Dec-08 4-Dec-08 5-Dec-08 8-Dec-08 10-Dec-08 11-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 15-Dec-08 16-Dec-08 17-Dec-08 18-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 22-Dec-08 23-Dec-08 24-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 29-Dec-08 30-Dec-08 31-Dec-08 1-Jan-09 2-Jan-09 5-Jan-09 6-Jan-09 7-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 12-Jan-09 13-Jan-09 14-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 19-Jan-09 20-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 27-Jan-09 28-Jan-09

1141.4 1139.95 1132.45 1056.05 1124.35 1144.8 1071.8 1138.9 1134.45 1109.4 1073.95 1069.1 1159.1 Buy 1117.6 1118.55 1227.2 1259 1307.1 1340.55 1388.5 1351.4 1361 1351.3 1285.55 1259.75 1242 1210.15 1246.3 1250.5 1232.75 1254.65 Buy 1286.4 1365.85 1370.9 1200.75 1153.25 Sell 1097.9 1077.55 1179.75 1142.35 1217.35 1229.9 1183.65 1119.85 1136.3 1156.15 1225.95 1274

Buy

Sell

12.48

Buy

Sell -4.65 Buy

11.73

Sell Buy

12.39

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

62

Trading Through Technical Analysis

29-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 2-Feb-09 3-Feb-09 4-Feb-09 5-Feb-09 6-Feb-09 9-Feb-09 10-Feb-09 11-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 16-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 18-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 24-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 2-Mar-09 3-Mar-09 4-Mar-09 5-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 9-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 16-Mar-09 17-Mar-09 18-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 23-Mar-09 24-Mar-09 25-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 31-Mar-09

1270.1 1323.6 Buy 1280 1306.2 1307.5 1288.8 1344.85 1389.7 1401.95 1381.25 1351.55 1392.4 1320.2 1267.3 1295.15 1293.75 1253.4 Sell 1253.25 1266.55 1290.8 1266.05 1225.65 1196.85 1211.1 1149.8 1169.9 1153.35 1202 Buy 1284.25 1327.6 1300.2 1331.4 1345.7 1339.2 1438.45 1452.45 1532.2 1565.5 1548.75 1516.45 1524.75

Sell

15.39

Sell

Buy -5.60 Buy

Buy

Sell

5.81

Sell

Srimad Rajchandra Institute Of Management And Computer Application

63

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