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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s stock market

The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s stock market

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s stock market during 2006-2008

by Dinh Duy Chuong

Course Lecturer

: :

Financial Bubbles and Crashes Nathan Nguyen

November 2009

The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Abbreviations............................................................................................................ iii Exchange rate................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures...................................................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction....................................................................................................................... 1 2. The bursting of Vietnam’s stock market ............................................................................ 2 2.1 Stealth Phase ............................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Awareness Phase ......................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Mania phase ................................................................................................................ 5 2.4. Blow off phase ........................................................................................................... 6 3. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 8 List of References .................................................................................................................. I Appendix 1: Scale of Stock market in 2006-2008..................................................................II Appendix 2: Stock market - Top 10 richest people (2006-2009) ............................................II

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

List of Abbreviations
HoSTC P/E SBV USD VN Index WTO Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center Price/Earnings Ratio State Bank of Vietnam United States currency Hochiminh City Stock Exchange indicator World Trade Organization

Exchange rate 2006: USD 1 = VND 15,700 2007: USD 1 = VND 16,000 2008: USD 1 = VND 17,000

List of Figures
Figures
Figure 1: VN Index ............................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: Stage 1 - Stealth Phase ........................................................................................... 3 Figure 3: Stage 2 - Awareness Phase ..................................................................................... 4 Figure 4: Stage 3 - Mania phase ............................................................................................ 5 Figure 5: Outstanding stocks - Price increasing ..................................................................... 6 Figure 6: Stage 4 - Blow off phase ........................................................................................ 7

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

1. Introduction
Shortly after Vietnam became an official WTO member, the stock market has been one of the first areas in developing excitingly with mutant increasing of many share prices. In 2008 Vietnam’s stock market experienced a bubble bursting which has been still an unforgettable pain of so many investors. The report is intended to have a look back to this bubble and analysis its causes as well as consequences based on four keys driven: monetary policy, global economy, inflation and perception of investors. A stock market boom can be described as a bubble if there is high probability of a large scale fall in share prices. At the stage the price free-falls then a bubble breaking will happen as an indispensable result. In Vietnam, though one more crash in stock is hardly to occur in the coming time, a potential collapse might come in future as a part of an economy. Nobody knows when this bursting will be; however, as an ambition of the study, the last bubble of Vietnam stock market is going to be analyzed to find out major signals for the next one that may be coming. How to prevent or limit the harmful effects of the bubble are thorny policy issues. These interesting will not be mentioned to in this study scope.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

2. The bursting of Vietnam’s stock market
Started in July 2000, Vietnam’s stock market made a giant jump in the period 2006-2008, reached the peak of VN-Index at 1,171 points in March 2007. This time was also witnessed the forming, developing and exploding of the biggest boom of the stock market. None has suffered as roughly as Ho Chi Minh City's market, which dropped to below 300 points at the end 2008.

Figure 1: VN Index

(Source: www.sbsc.com.vn)

The bubble & crash can be divided into 4 stages: . Phase 1 – Stealth phase: With the increasing of speculation, the trend moves from an unrecognized status to a recognized tendency . Phase 2 – Awareness phase: People get notice the uptrend more clearly and a test period can happen to interfere in the price drop. . Phase 3 – Mania phase: Expectation is pushed strongly together with the exaggeration. It moves to the period of dusk when people continue playing, although they no longer believe in it. . Phase 4 – Blow off phase: The trend of decline and people abandon hope. Everyone recognizes and agrees that the bubble has burst, and life will never be the same. The study will identify these stages of VN Index through the period 2006 – 2008.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

2.1 Stealth Phase
5 years after launching, the stock market in 2006 started a new stage of acceleration, more powerful, with larger scale. This was expressed through a series of important decisions from the Government, such as Decision 528 for approving the list of State enterprises being on the way of listing, and doing transactions on stock market; Decision 189 for establishing an independent securities depository or Decision 238 for raising percentage of ownership of foreign investment - up to 49%.

Figure 2: Stage 1 - Stealth Phase

(Source: www.sbsc.com.vn) There were a lot of market mechanisms of supporting the market development, creating favorable conditions to encourage enterprises to participate in the stock market. Many giant state-own enterprises fell into a racing run of going to public, created an exciting stock market. As a result, together with an increasing of the number of listed companies, the number of investor was rising as well. However it did not recorded the joining of organized investors into the market. According to an estimate by the State Securities Commission, up to 90% of investors were individuals. Almost of investing organizations were established by foreigners; nearly none of domestic security ones appeared. In this stage, the uptrend was still formed clearly though a taking off signal was able to be recognized. Q1 2008 recorded an increasing of VN Index to 400 points, launched a strong development followed. And of course, the moneys placing to the market at this time was the smart ones. The thing is “who knows”.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

2.2 Awareness Phase
Figure 3: Stage 2 - Awareness Phase

(Source: www.sbsc.com.vn) Speculation happened. While only “insiders” took part in the market at stage 1, institutional investors jumped into this attractive portion at the time. A full of optimistic report about Vietnam's market from Merrill Lynch earlier 2006, by that income from Vietnam stock market would increase at a rate of 35% per year, were inflated joy of domestic investors foreign investors rushing to come. With psychological movement, the market continued to be pushed up rapidly. The VN Index climbed from 300 points at the beginning of 2006 to 600 in April. Double increasing in four months is an amazing speed of development for any stock market over the world. Meanwhile, most foreign investors looked more conscious about the market, not so high as what Merrill-Lynch had predicted before. Therefore a test period occurred during the awareness phase, with the price dropping, to 400 points at May. However the uptrend was reformed after winners who sold off their stocks at the peak in April came back to the market together their big profits to buy in for catching new opportunities. In addition the decline of the VN-Index strengths after April was also a great chance for long-term strategy investors in collecting potential stocks.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

2.3 Mania phase
This is a boom period. Market continued breaking new records; the psychological speculation dominated completely domestic investors, attracted them to follow optimistic assessments and strategic investment activities of foreign investors. The market status was excessive excitement while still having quite loose management. People, regardless experience investors or housewives, were rushing to buy stock. They were only interested in buying without any concerning to what the respective enterprise business had been doing or how the rate P/E and income were. Figure 4: Stage 3 - Mania phase

(Source: www.sbsc.com.vn) As a result, this speculation wave made the sublimation of the VN-Index. At end 2006, there were 106 stocks, 02 fund certificates, 367 bonds with the total listed value according to fair value of USD 4.6 billion in Hochiminh City Stock Exchange. Total market capitalization in both stock exchanges was around USD 14 billion, accounted 22.7% GDP. Stock price increases each day without any specific reason. From Nov., 2006 to Mar., 2007, the market grew at a rate of 130%, from 500 to 1150 points. According to some experts, there was no precedent in the world like this.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

The crazy growing of stock price became one of hottest subjects exploited fully by internal and external medias. When the enthusiasm was delivered to everyone, the number of new buyers entering the market was increased rapidly. Whatever a stock is, penny or blue-chip share, good or bad one, they was looked for buying, causing a surge in trading volume. It was created the sentiments in investments with no fear and crowded effect. Small investors were excited to come to trading floor, eyes glued to the giant display screens as shares hit ever more extravagant highs. Profit was easy to earn through stock market produced the greed risen investor inside. Then an increasing effect of leverage occurred. Investors, small ones as well as domestic companies, borrowed to buy shares from many sources: banks, relatives, friends, savings, etc. Pressure of repayment at due day amplified the degree of the price fall. Unfortunately, investors didn’t know that they were at the end of a bear cycle.

Figure 5: Outstanding stocks - Price increasing
700 600
Price (1000 VND)

140 120
change (%)

500 400 300 200 100 0 ACB FPT REE SAM SSI STB VNM Outstanding Stocks
Price (Jan 02 2007) Price (Mar 05 2007)

100 80 60 40 20 0

% change

(Source: www.cafef.vn) Moreover, loosen monetary policy with low interest rate made a money supply adding to the economy and created the huge outstanding loans in securities investments.

2.4. Blow off phase
VN Index reached its peak at 1170.67 points on 12 March 2007. The market experienced a period of decline and “recover” in the rest of 2007. It is the moment of fear and “truth” when exaggerated expectations were not maintained actually. People continued “playing”, although they no longer believed in the uptrend of market. VN Index fell to 850 points at the end 2007. Price fluctuation may signal a dominance of noise trading, forecasting a stock market collapse.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

Figure 6: Stage 4 - Blow off phase

(Source: www.sbsc.com.vn) In 2008, in Vietnam as elsewhere in South-East Asia, almost everything went up in price food, fuel, housing, but shares had been heading the other way. The Ho Chi Minh City's market, the region's youngest, fell 62% over the year. Small investors experienced the stock market downside, as its first ever bubble had popped. The gloomy mood spread from investors to stockbrokers' offices. A little bit air went out of the bubble when Government started instructing banks to stop lending to people and companies borrowing to speculate on shares. Besides that banks were also ordered to stop selling shares that they had received as collateral. However, one more time crowed effect made a domino phenomenon of fear among local punters. One looked into another and they tried pulling their money out, under the fright growing. This stage also experienced an increasing number of corporate scandals, fraud and corruption. Share price rise augments the power and influence of executives. Several giant state-owned corporations which are non-financial firms were distracted from their core businesses by the temptations of dabbling in shares. It was found that far too easy to issue shares and thus, the constant stream of rights issues diluted earnings per share, contributing to the market's fall. The global turmoil in the U.S. and other European countries and the collapse of securities markets affected Vietnam’s economy and Vietnam’s stock market as well. The world fuel price increased sharply, from USD 53.4 per barrel in January 2007 to USD 89.4 per barrel in December 2007, and reached as USD 125.96 per barrel on 9 May 2008. Investor psychology was affected; stocks were not the attractive investment channel. One more key driven of the crash came from domestic inflation. A large number of money flow from stock market to real estate market as the land price could jump to double or triple in a short term, contributed on bursting the stock boom. In the other side, with the purpose of reining in roaring inflation, up to 25% in the year 2008, Government had had to re-impose lending curbs in order to reduce speculation. This added to the anguish in the stock market as well.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

3. Conclusion
A stock market bubble and its bursting cannot be provided with any tools of mathematical economics. It happens because of a drastic change in the behavior of market players rather than a certain level of share overvaluation or anything related to fundamental shares. Nevertheless there are some factors which are able to aim in recognizing a potential bubble such as increasing activity on monetary policy, more leverage effect, crowded effect, the overheated global economy and inflation. After a crash, the framework surrounding the stock market may also change, bringing about legal, regulatory and institutional evolution as a consequence of the collapse. Above all is lesson learnt which an investor can keep in his mind as a precious experience for the investment later. No one can get success without having failures before.

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

List of References
Douglas Edward French, ‘Early Speculative Bubbles and Increase in The Supply of Money’, May 1992 Gyorgy Komaromi, ‘Anatomy of Stock Market Bubbles’, 2006. The Economist print edition, ‘The fall of Ho Chi Minh City’, April 2008. Regularly visited internet source: http://cafef.vn An Online Financial News http://www.sbsc.com.vn The Sacombank Securities Company Website http://www.thanglongsc.com.vn The Thang Long Securities Company website http://vneconomy.vn The Online Vietnam Economy Website

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The Bubble and Crash of Vietnam’s Stock Market

Appendix 1: Scale of Stock market in 2006-2008

Listed company Market capitalization (billion USD) Market capitalization (GDP %) Transaction value (billion USD)

2006 2007 2008 HASTC HOSE Total HASTC HOSE Total HASTC HOSE Total 87 106 193 112 141 253 168 125 221

4.6

9.2

13.8

7.7

21.8

29.5

3.1

21.3

12.7

7.5 1.2

15 5.6

22.5 10.1

13 2.9

37 14.4

50 17.3

10 3.2

30 50.2

17 65.3

(Source: www.cafef.vn)

Appendix 2: Stock market - Top 10 richest people (2006-2009)

No
Full name Truong Gia 1 Binh Le Quang 2 Tien Bui Quang 3 Ngoc Le Van 4 Quang Chu Thi 5 Binh Hoang Minh Chau Nguyen Duy Hung Do Cao 8 Bao Nguyen Thi 9 Mai Thanh Tran Kim 10 Thanh

29-Dec-06
Value Stock USD mil Full name Dang Thanh Tam Pham Nhat FPT 95 Vuong Tran Dinh FPT 66 Long Nguyen Duy Hung

31-Dec-07
Value Stock ITA, KBC 350 USD mil Full name Doan Nguyen Duc Pham Nhat VIC 208 Vuong Dang Thanh Tam Tran Dinh 156 Long Dang Thi

31-Dec-08
Value Stock USD mil

FPT

131

HAG VIC, VPL KBC, SGT ITA

342

290

HPG SSI, VSH, PAN-HNX

193

182

MPC

64

HPG

88

MPC

64

Doan Toi Tran Kim

ANV KDC, NKD REE, STB

146

Hoang Yen Pham Thu

ITA VIC, VPL PAN, SSI, VSH, HAG KBC, SGT, ITA

75

6

FPT SSI, PAN, VSH

52

Thanh Nguyen Thi

120

Huong Nguyen Duy Hung Dang Thi Hoang

55

7

51

Mai Thanh Truong Gia

99

54

FPT REE, STB KDC, NKD

50

Binh Dang Ngoc

FPT

95

Phuong Dang Ngoc

37

49

Lan Nguyen Duc Kien

ACB

94

Lan Truong Gia

ACB

34

47

ACB

86

Binh

FPT

32

Total

669

Total

1,547

Total

1,189

(Source: www.cafef.vn)

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