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ValuEngine Detailed Valuation Report for CMG

ValuEngine Detailed Valuation Report for CMG

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Published by ValuEngine.com
Advanced academic research that brings you superior investment strategies in an actionable format. The most comprehensive and useful report available. ValuEngine's three models: Valuation Model, Forecast Model and Ratings Model are incorporated to give you a well-rounded analysis from three different perspectives. Consensus EPS trend and Earnings Surprise statistics provide additional insights. Also, detailed Company Profile, ValuEngine Fair Valuation; 1-3-6 month and 1-2-3 yr forecasts, ValuEngine 1-5 Engine Rating, Multi-stock comparison, Financials, Earnings Estimates, Risk Assessment, Data Summary and much more.
Advanced academic research that brings you superior investment strategies in an actionable format. The most comprehensive and useful report available. ValuEngine's three models: Valuation Model, Forecast Model and Ratings Model are incorporated to give you a well-rounded analysis from three different perspectives. Consensus EPS trend and Earnings Surprise statistics provide additional insights. Also, detailed Company Profile, ValuEngine Fair Valuation; 1-3-6 month and 1-2-3 yr forecasts, ValuEngine 1-5 Engine Rating, Multi-stock comparison, Financials, Earnings Estimates, Risk Assessment, Data Summary and much more.

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VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT Dec.45% overvalued $89. Market capitalization Only two percent of the over 4. U. We then apply the most advanced statistical/econometric techniques to ensure that our stock return forecasts are as reliable as possible. 2000 through Jan. We use a distinct forecasting model for each time horizon and for every industry. It combines the following five factors: 1. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research. 100 Overlook Center.82% -2.com 2009 125 100 5 Volume (million) 4 3 VALUENGINE RATING Price 75 50 2 1 RECOMMENDATION FACTORS Value Overall Rank Fair Value 1Yr Target Price P/E Ratio Last 1-Y Return Market Cap(bil) $89.34 $84.29 0. As such.44% 47.22% undervalued Consumer Services 5. 31. Momentum 5. Contact ValuEngine: ValuEngine.47 $81. among other things. Intermediate-term momentum continuation. 2009. 2006 of over 30% per year.000 stocks that we cover receive the highest 5 rating.com www.29.9 0.68% FORECASTED TARGET PRICES The predictive variables used in Valuengine's forecast target price models include both proprietary and well-established forecasting variables derived from credible financial research studies and publications. Top 5 rated stocks can be expected to outperform the overall market by 15% or more. Inc.Foods 0. (800) 381-5576 (T) support@ValuEngine. but UNATTRACTIVE expected EPS growth and market/book ratio.49% -5.A. The ratings are the result of the cumulative of the above factors.41 19. 2nd Floor Princeton.90% -9.65.77% overvalued.51% n/a n/a 0.91% -8.35798 24. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth.92 1.72 2.66 22.51% $1. Price/Earnings ratio 4. and correlations to the 30year Treasury bond yield of 4.96. we feel that CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. we base this on actual earnings per share (EPS) for the previous four quarters of $3.77% overvalued Retailing . 31.36 Rank top 40% top 49% top 49% top 45% top 43% top 24% 25 0 2006 Close Price 2007 Model Price 2008 Volume 2009 Sell Hold 2010 Buy VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION ValuEngine has issued a HOLD recommendation for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC on Dec. stocks with relatively poor results for any one of the five variables can still be attractive if the other four factors are strong enough.ValuEngine.06 24. FAIR MARKET VALUATION PRICE Based on available data as of Dec.69%.com Copyright © 1998 . 31.48 RATING OVERVIEW The ValuEngine Rating is an overall assessment of a stock's attractiveness. with average annualized returns from Jan.29 $81. we believe that CMG should be trading at $89. FORECAST ANALYSIS 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year Target Price $89. NJ 08540. 1 year forecasted returns 3. and Long-term price reversals.2009 ValuEngine Inc 1 .06 $82. For CMG.01 1. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE 5-year annualized return and risk.98 12/30/09 $1.92 $86. each playing a role in the valuation analysis. BASIC INFORMATION Last Trade Trade Date Market Cap(bil) Trailing P/E Forward P/E PEG Ratio P/S Ratio M/B Ratio Sharpe Ratio 5-Y Avg Ann Return Volatility EPS Growth Annual Dividend Dividend Yield LT Debt/Equity Beta VALUATION ANALYSIS CMG Industry Sector Today's Fair value: $89. 2009 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION & BASIC INFORMATION RECOMMENDATION negative SELL neutral HOLD positive BUY 1 5 0 ©ValuEngine. forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $3.64% 8. Fair market valuation 2. Return -0. several important tendencies that stock prices consistently exhibit: Short-term price reversals.S.99 0.29% -3.66 48. There are an additional 10 firm specific and interest rate related parameters. 2009. Our forecasting models capture.87 Exp.24 $87. This makes CMG 0.

Fair Value Historical Average P/S P/S-Based Fair Value n/a $0. CASY. CMG's average P/S is n/a. JACK and RDK. The analyst consensus estimate is $3.41 0. we apply the PEG to give a fair value assessment if both its trailing 4 quarter EPS and forecasted EPS growth rate are positive.VgluEngine OPTIMAL BUY-SELL TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) DATA SUMMARY & MARKET RATIO BASED VALUATION MARKET RATIO BASED VALUATION Portfolio managers and professionals traditionally rely on market ratios to gauge whether a stock is fair valued or overvalued.77% 48.92. the best time to buy would be below $64. Valuation Based on Comparables' P/S CMG's comparables are CAKE. CMG earned $3.29 (or valuation below 28.99 24.00%). The following assessment is based on multiplying the historical P/S with recent 4 quarter sales per share for CMG.46 0. If its forecasted EPS growth is negative but its forward 4 quarter EPS is positive.66 Rank 52 58 94 58 30 77 92 60 34 56 EVALUATION & RANKINGS SUMMARY Just as important as the percentages shown for our ten predictive variables for each stock is the way they are ranked against the 7000 plus stocks in our database. The best time to sell would be above $143.00 2.12 Copyright © 1998 .96 for its 4 quarter forward EPS.49. In other words a high rank is always better.45 0. we use both (i) the average historical market ratio of the stock over the past 10 years (or however long there is data available for the stock). EVALUATION & RANKINGS Valuation 12-Month Return 5-Y Avg Ann Rtn Volatility EPS Growth Market Cap(bill) Sharpe Ratio P/S Ratio M/B Ratio P/E Ratio Value 0. Based solely on the Historical Mispricing of CMG. P/E (price to forward 4 quarter earnings ratio). These two alternative perspectives should give you a good idea about where this stock's valuation stands today. EAT. CMG earned $3.2009 ValuEngine Inc 2 . while P/E is better than P/S. Comparables' P/S Comparables CAKE CASY EAT JACK RDK Current P/S 0. Let's take them one by one: • Valuation rank 52: 48% of stocks are more undervalued • Momentum rank 58: 42% of stocks have higher momentum • Sharpe Ratio rank 92: 8% of stocks have a higher Sharpe Ratio • 5-Year Average Annual Return 94: 6% of stocks have higher average annual return • Volatility rank 58: 42% of stocks have less volatility • EPS growth rank 30: 70% of stocks have greater projected EPS growth • Size rank 77: 23% of companies have higher market capitalization • P/E rank 56: 44% of stocks have lower P/E ratios • Price/Sales rank 60: 40% of stocks have lower price/sales ratios • Market/Book rank 34: 66% of stocks have lower market/book value ratios 1. The following assessment is based on multiplying comparable stocks' average P/S today with CMG's recent 4 quarter sales per share .76 (or valuation above 61.00%). Among the three. Valuation Based on CMG's Past P/S Over the past 5 years. This is sometimes confusing to newcomers to ValuEngine. On this page. For each given stock.92 1. and P/S ratio (price to trailing 4 quarter sales).65 per share in its recent 4 quarters. Generally the higher the ranking. CMG's current price sales ratio is 0. we present such a valuation based on one of three market ratios: PEG (price to trailing 4 quarter earnings ratio. The analyst consensus estimate is $3.96 for its 4-quarterforward EPS.65 per share in its recent 4 quarters. CMG's current price sales ratio is 0. To establish a valuation standard. PEG is the most informative as it reflects both the price/earnings ratio and expected future EPS growth. the more positive the influence each measurement has on the overall attractiveness of the stock. Otherwise. we resort to the P/S to assess its fair value. and (ii) the average market ratio today of five comparable stocks in the same sector and from companies of similar size. The current P/S average of these comparables is 0.64% 8.44% 47.51% 19. divided by the consensus analyst forecasted next year EPS growth).83 0. Each of these quantitative measurements is ranked on a scale of 1 to 100.36 0.92.4 0.49 $48.31 Fair Value Comparable Stocks' Avg P/S Comparable P/S-Based Fair Value 0. we apply the P/E to give a fair value for the stock as of today.51% 1.

burritos. with the majority prepared in its restaurants while some is prepared with the same fresh ingredients in commissaries. Copyright © 1998 . In addition to sodas and fruit drinks. Inc. cheese and lettuce. was founded in 1993. Customers can choose from four different meats. The company also provides various extras such as guacamole. Canada as of December 31. The company’s restaurants serve a focused menu of tacos. and Toronto. 2008. Inc. burrito bowls. It serves burritos. All of its food is prepared from scratch. develops and operates Mexican food restaurants in the United States and in the District of Columbia. salsas and tortilla chips seasoned with fresh lime and kosher salt. two types of beans and various extras such as salsas. most of its restaurants also offer a selection of beer and margaritas. guacamole. salads and burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla). The company operates 837 restaurants in 33 states throughout the United States.VgluEngine COMPANY ANALYSIS TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill.2009 ValuEngine Inc 3 . tacos and salads. made using fresh ingredients. History Chipotle Mexican Grill. the District of Columbia.

69 74 assigned a rank of 100 while stocks with the highest P/S ratio are Sector 1.17 44 slightly lower than the industry rank of 45.69 52 77.36 77 market capitalization. The higher the Valuation Industry -0. and S&P 500 averages.22% 57 rank. CMG has a Volatility Rank of 58. which S&P 500 -1.79 23. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- M/B Ratio Rank The Market/Book Rank is a measure of a stock's market to book ratio CMG 1. With a Valuation Rank of 52. CMG has a Market/Book rank of 34. CMG is in line with the industry's S&P 500 26. On a scale of 1 to Industry 56. CMG is significantly higher than the industry. a higher 12-Month Return rank indicates a stronger performance. S&P 500 19.This is in line with the industry rank of Sector 42. S&P 500 n/a n/a -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Cap(bill) Rank The ValuEngine Size rank signifies the company's size in terms of CMG 1.14% 51 100. in comparison with the Industry -6.99 34 relative to the stock universe. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sharpe Ratio Rank The ValuEngine Sharpe Ratio Rank measures the risk return tradeoff CMG 0. A higher rank denotes a larger market Industry 2. CMG is significantly higher than the S&P 500 -0.36% 59 has a rank of 51.92 60 company based on its P/S ratio.77% 52 company's stock price and its Fair Value.41 92 offered by a stock.41% 54 stocks.8 54 capitalization within ValuEngine's stock universe. Sector -11.91 Rank 56 63 51 56 The ValuEngine P/E Rank signifies the relative standing of a company on its P/E ratio. CMG is in line with the industry P/E rank of 63. CMG is moderately higher than the industry.51% 30 growth rate.11 51 (over the last five years) divided by its annualized volatility over the Sector -0.02 22.45% 51 CMG is in line with the average of its industry group.28% 51 coverage universe. which is Sector 3. which has a rank of S&P 500 n/a n/a 54. the more undervalued the stock. At a Price/Sales rank of 60.56% 55 With a 12-Month Return Rank of 58. which has a rank of 51. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Volatility Rank The ValuEngine Volatility Rank reflects the volatility associated with the CMG 47. The below data points show how the rank for each data point for CMG relates to the overall industry. With a rank of 92. CMG is slightly lower than the S&P 500 n/a n/a industry rank of 74. A higher rank indicates a better return performance. sector.37 45 market book value.06% 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EPS Growth Rank The ValuEngine EPS Growth Rank indicates a stock's expected EPS CMG 8.65% 49 39. Generally the higher the ranking. A higher rank corresponds to a lower Industry 2. S&P 500 n/a n/a -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P/E Ratio CMG Industry Sector S&P 500 24. Stocks in the top P/E percentile are each assigned a rank of 1(highest P/E stocks) while those in the bottom P/E percentile are assigned a rank of 100 (traditional value stocks).17 48 same 5 years. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Valuation Rank The ValuEngine Valuation Rank measures the relationship between a CMG 0.51% 58 performance of a stock over the recent 12 months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12-Month Return Rank The ValuEngine 12-Month Return Rank reflects the relative stock CMG 48. Stocks with the lowest P/S ratio are Industry 0. the more positive the influence each measurement has on the overall attractiveness of the stock. With a P/E rank of 56. With a Size rank of Sector 2. which is in line with the Sector 65. which carries a S&P 500 n/a n/a Valuation Rank of 57.43% 46 industry Rank of 54.64% 58 stock. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P/S Ratio Rank The ValuEngine Price/Sales rank signifies the relative position of the CMG 0. Sector 5.44% 94 average annual return over the last 5 years. 4 Copyright © 1998 .31% 47 With a rank of 94. In other words a high rank is always better. Sharpe ratio is the stock's average annual return Industry -0. A higher Volatility Rank indicates a lower volatile percentile of Industry 53.47% 42 rank score of 51. A high rank indicates a high growth rate expectation.87% 39 has an EPS Growth Rank of 30.07 55 industry. Each of these quantitative measurements is ranked on a scale of 1 to 100. CMG Industry 32. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5-Y Avg Ann Rtn Rank The ValuEngine 5-Years Average Return Rank reflects a stock's CMG 19.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) VALUENGINE RANKINGS Just as important as the percentages shown for our ten predictive variables for each stock is the way they are ranked against the 7000 plus stocks in our database. relative to the universe. Sector 68.2009 ValuEngine Inc .89 64 ranked 1.66 20.

09% 48.36% -16.24% 23.03% 12-Month Return Rank CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 48.97% 41.01% 36.45 0.99% 47.44% -7.54% JACK 52.64% 48.82% -0. Sharpe Ratio CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 0.47% -10.33 1.34% 36.18% -14.46% JACK 47.36 2.55% -6.42% 30.08% 50.96% 39.90% -9.50% 55.31% 58.15 0.57% -12.47% 44.85% 54.54 1.60% 58.95% CMG -0.28 1.06 Rank 30 33 27 19 14 Market Cap(bill) CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 1.66 22.03% RDK 54.60% 58.65% -6.68% EAT -0.2009 ValuEngine Inc 5 .03% 58.92% 41.69% 41.83% 54.41% -5.62% 46.63% TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) COMPARISON OF SIMILAR STOCKS* & RISk ASSESSMENT Rank 52 45 54 74 76 FORECAST COMPARISONS RETURN FORECAST: EXPECTED RETURN CAKE One-Month Three-Month Six-Month One-Year Two-Year Three-Year -1.98% 58 86 22 64 19 RISK ASSESSMENT: CHANCE OF GAIN 5-Y Avg Ann Rtn Rank CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 19.40% 41.15% 45.60% -16.99% -9.91% -8.18 Rank 34 24 43 28 30 P/E Ratio CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 24.97% RDK 45.99 2.11 0.02 Rank 92 46 78 47 64 P/S Ratio CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 0.99% -9.66% 63.73% -1.65% -1.83% 45.17% 54.38% 55.59% 0.58% 69.83 0.92 Rank 56 58 77 85 89 Copyright © 1998 .66% 57.50% 44.29% -3.76% 44.16 0.49% -5.41 -0.85% 37.99% 63.31 0.89% -8.71% 3.74% RDK -0.09 0.92 0.63% -5.34% 42.07 -0 -0.76% 71.38% JACK -0.94% 57.6 1.68% -2.82% -2.19% Volatility CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 47.86% 2.77% 5.38% 53.94% Rank 58 57 94 42 71 RISK ASSESSMENT: CHANCE OF LOSS CAKE One-Month Three-Month Six-Month One-Year Two-Year Three-Year 52.91% 51.17% 45.01% 48.52% -3.84% 53.61% 94 45 72 43 63 One-Month Three-Month Six-Month One-Year Two-Year Three-Year CAKE 47.01% 52.17 -0.66 13.08% 58.75% EAT 51.45% 44.22% -18.24% 55.15% 62.49% -8.62% 44.42% 58.53% 55.58 2.9 10.51% 131.40% 41.91 8.16% 46.37% -0.46 Rank 60 64 85 79 79 M/B Ratio CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 1.92% 49.36 1.41% CMG 47.15 Rank 77 76 76 78 75 * Comparables are companies in the same Sector and Industry and of approximately similar market capitalization value.24% 28.78% -2.81% EPS Growth CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 0.59% CMG 52.39% -13.55% 55.25% EAT 48.99% 51.73% -2.00% -2.VgluEngine Valuation CMG CAKE RDK EAT JACK 0.30% -19.

3 17.2 -3.9 202.7 2003-12 ---2. Curr TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS Gross Property Plant and Equip.9 91.2 0.2 2005-12 0.7 392.6 2.6 404.6 2.7 4.7 3.1 249 10 14 12.9 -6.7 --28.3 489.9 -2.9 29.8 2. Goodwill Deferred Tax Assets.2 25.2 19.9 21.2 0.4 ---3.1 777.8 11.2 5.7 11.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) ANNUAL FINANCIALS .1 0.5 310.1 --46 262.3 130.6 1.8 --8 -76.3 72.4 67.2 4 18.4 --5.8 645.3 --0.1 722.6 3.2 0.8 -7.9 4.9 604.9 44.5 7 1.5 38.4 340.7 --1.5 249 Copyright © 1998 .2009 ValuEngine Inc 6 . PLANT AND EQUIP.5 2004-12 ---2.7 -2.7 17. LT Other Long Term Assets TOTAL ASSETS Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Short-term Borrowings Current Income Taxes Payable Unearned Revenue.5 3.1 0.3 375.3 350.9 -151 494.6 0.2 2.7 3 -0 474 474 604.4 262.4 309.9 178.1 1.2 -82.1 --0.7 13.4 722.9 4.2 61.9 21.6 211.9 -76.3 502 150.4 --0.1 2006-12 153.4 -191.9 -10.4 392.4 -39.8 251.3 -3.7 -30.1 -86.4 -117.1 -0.7 17.6 211.8 16.4 -60.3 9 2.2 20 171. Accumulated Depreciation NET PROPERTY.3 4 16.6 31.2 329.3 470.9 8.5 --28.7 83.8 -1.6 8.5 --562.5 66.5 -0.3 4.9 26.6 --2.3 160 --0.5 0.2 309.1 825 23.5 -37.5 289.6 4. Convertible TOTAL PREFERRED EQUITY Common Stock Additional Paid In Capital Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Comprehensive Income and Other TOTAL COMMON EQUITY TOTAL EQUITY TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 88 100 188 3.1 191.2 2.6 383.5 7.5 585.2 0.3 --37.3 --19.3 42 3.9 26.2 622.6 825 2007-12 151.3 --9 -73.8 -13.8 522.6 622.2 -3.4 9.3 191.7 -38.5 13.8 3.2 57.5 -14.9 -3.BALANCE SHEET (millions) 2008-12 Cash and Equivalents Short Term Investments TOTAL CASH & SHORT TERM INVEST Accounts Receivable Other Receivables Notes Receivable TOTAL RECEIVABLES INVENTORIES Prepaid Expenses Deferred Tax Assets.7 46.9 44.1 562.8 427. Current Other Current Liabilities TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES Long Term Debt Deferred Tax Liability Non-Current Other Non-Current Liabilities TOTAL LIABILITIES Preferred Stock.4 201.1 19.2 -0.7 38.6 329.2 4.6 -153.

4 -0 0.8 133.6 2002-12 204. and Amortization OPERATING INCOME Interest Expense Interest and Invest.2 6.7 394.4 70.3 -68.6 2.4 1.9 77.4 2004-12 470.8 30.1 76.5 2005-12 627.8 843.2 -127.4 2.3 1.2 49 78.4 1.1 -6.5 37.2 127.3 3.4 1.5 15.6 6.3 26.1 5.1 52 -2 28 34.2 -7.8 11.6 70.7 -7.3 1.8 2.5 3.1 2006-12 822.2 21.7 2.2 2.9 -0.7 -7.2 0.3 68.3 -17.9 650.8 -2.2 78.3 65.1 -0.7 21.3 -16.6 116.2 78. Income NET INTEREST EXP.1 6.5 315.3 1.3 6.9 25.2 0.6 204.2009 ValuEngine Inc 7 .1 33. Stock-Based Compensation Pre-Opening Costs Depr.4 2.2 242.6 43.4 26.6 70.3 -1.7 172.5 2003-12 315.2 25. Extra Items Weighted Avg.9 822.6 -0.8 9.8 1085.2 -1.1 5.3 32.5 0.1 2.1 2007-12 1085.8 1.5 -0.3 -1.8 0 -0.5 34.1 -0.1 -3.1 6.8 -1 11.1 -6.4 41.2 32.3 -17.4 -0.5 268 47.3 --17.2 114 43. UNUSUAL ITEMS Legal Settlements EBT INCL.7 --7.7 470. EBT EXCL.6 44.6 68.7 627.5 15.7 37.4 0. Diluted Shares Out.2 -30.1 Copyright © 1998 .4 11.1 0.6 15.1 -1.8 7.7 -0. 1332 1332 1045 286.3 -1.2 60.7 --7.8 41.4 33.3 32. Basic Shares Out.2 0 6.7 37.3 -17.1 0.2 25.INCOME STATEMENT (millions) 2008-12 Revenues TOTAL REVENUES Cost Of Goods Sold GROSS PROFIT Selling General and Admin Exp.7 1. UNUSUAL ITEMS Income Tax Expense EARNINGS FROM CONTINUING NET INCOME NI TO COMMON INCL EXTRA ITEMS Basic EPS Basic EPS Excl.8 34.5 -0.7 511. Diluted EPS Diluted EPS Excl Extra Items Weighted Avg.6 113.2 0.2 0.4 26.1 1.2 -7.3 6.3 13.4 32.8 -0.3 13.6 182.2 2.4 7.3 --17.6 52.4 41.1 -0.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) ANNUAL FINANCIALS .8 112.

and Write-off of Bad debts Other Operating Activities Change In Accounts Receivable Change In Inventories Change In Accounts Payable Change In Income Taxes Change In Deferred Taxes Change In Other Working Capital CASH FROM OPERATIONS Capital Expenditure Cash Acquisitions Invest.5 29.6 ---12.9 0.9 77.2 0.6 198.9 6 -48.1 21.3 -11.6 6.2 -0 -43.5 -5.9 22.5 -63.6 26.8 1.4 -0.2 Copyright © 1998 .1 -0.2 --36.7 8.7 15.1 13 16.3 34.3 -62.4 -83 ---83 37.1 8.1 -1.6 57 -57 -66 --66 -55.9 39.1 -0.8 2005-12 37.8 -0.4 34.3 2.5 -0.1 --80 -232.3 11.8 52.5 -0.6 ---48.6 -97.7 28 28 3.3 11.4 5.1 -----0.5 0.2 7.8 2.6 9.3 11.4 147.8 21.7 -20 -166.1 2002-12 -17.5 41.7 -0.8 -0 -0.3 -1.1 2.5 -152.2 2.2009 ValuEngine Inc 8 .6 44.9 3.2 -64 --26.1 -0.7 0.2 -0. in Marketable and Eqty Securties CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING Short-Term Debt Issued Long-Term Debt Issued TOTAL DEBT ISSUED Short-Term Debt Repaid Long-Term Debt Repaid TOTAL DEBT REPAID Other Financing Activities CASH FROM FINANCING NET CHANGE IN CASH Cash Taxes Paid Net Debt Issued 78.3 ---97.2 -1.3 153.3 -29.6 43.2 13..5 48.5 12.2 -56.8 -2.6 --2.1 -86.1 -3.9 -140.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) ANNUAL FINANCIALS .7 146.5 -0.4 -5.3 4 5.3 1.1 15.5 ---3.3 -0.9 2.6 ---95.1 0.5 3.9 --0.2 7.4 -42.9 -0.1 --1.2 -44.3 -0.1 62.2 0.8 -11.7 0.9 -0.3 2.5 -0.9 ---9 2003-12 -7.4 103.1 1.1 37.4 5 -8 7.5 ---8.7 -3.2 -----0.8 22.1 -0.1 2006-12 41.2 52.1 ---86.6 43.4 5. TOTAL (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Asset Stock-Based Compensation Prov.8 -2.5 8.9 -0.5 -43.6 -0.1 -2.8 9.1 -56.7 2004-12 6.3 -36.6 2.1 2007-12 70.7 -95.1 -8.4 0.CASH FLOW STATEMENT (millions) 2008-12 Net Income Depreciation and Amortization DEPRECIATION AND AMORT.1 4.2 19.

1 --622 21.3 751.8 5.4 0.2 7.9 21.9 91.6 44.9 6.4 -191.4 269.9 29.9 4.9 -100.2 5.1 562.8 2008-03 187.7 -30.9 29.3 3.9 2007-12 151.6 2008-12 88 100 188 3.9 44.9 4 831.9 -204.7 --0 632.8 100.1 5.2 4.2 4.9 21.6 22.3 -9 73.2009 ValuEngine Inc 9 .3 525 211.3 507.3 491.2 -187.3 3. Accumulated Depreciation NET PROPERTY.2 5.5 --562.3 502 150.7 2.1 238.4 3.1 177.3 160 0.7 0.1 Copyright © 1998 .7 55.4 -238.2 3.7 --515.5 78.2 0.4 -0.7 0.8 38.5 240 --566 21.1 19.9 33 96.8 220.6 54.2 89.8 -8 76.9 3.3 2009-03 204.2 622.4 2.1 649.9 44.9 9.3 498.3 9 2.9 6.8 13.3 854.7 13 3.5 114.3 24.6 199.8 25.6 170.1 -51. Curr TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS Gross Property Plant and Equip.8 41.3 494.6 222.2 --80.2 71.7 176.6 -195.7 919.3 535.BALANCE SHEET (millions) 2009-09 Cash and Equivalents Short Term Investments TOTAL CASH & SHORT TERM INVEST Accounts Receivable Other Receivables TOTAL RECEIVABLES INVENTORIES Prepaid Expenses Deferred Tax Assets.3 1.7 230.1 751.2 20 171.7 245.1 777.2 -0 681.6 5.2 239. Current TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES Long Term Debt Deferred Tax Liability Non-Current Other Non-Current Liabilities TOTAL LIABILITIES Common Stock Additional Paid In Capital Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Comprehensive Income and Other TOTAL COMMON EQUITY TOTAL EQUITY TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 238.7 632.1 825 23.2 --609 609 786.8 645.5 -87.7 --81 3.6 0.9 25.6 21.1 722.3 581.9 19.9 -88.7 681.8 --581.2 2.9 5.1 2.4 201.4 -3.5 210.9 6.2 -0.7 919.7 50.5 854.8 11.3 3.7 84.6 3.4 5.9 2008-06 195.3 489.2 21.9 6.4 9.4 --596 21.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) QUARTERLY FINANCIALS .8 32.5 632.3 -208.1 786.8 2.4 -71.1 5 8.6 825 2008-09 212.5 585.8 9 5.9 4.2 632.9 3.7 -0 649. PLANT AND EQUIP.2 51.3 5.4 3.2 --75.3 21.6 211.9 4.5 14.9 3.2 -212.9 -151 494.2 11.5 --87.4 -5.1 0.7 831.4 722.5 66.3 --539.4 5.1 873.9 13.3 72.9 3.6 622.1 0.5 873.7 224.7 133.8 2009-06 208.7 56.8 3.9 24.3 4 16.6 3.3 --605.5 12.9 1.6 11.1 106.9 29. Goodwill Other Long Term Assets TOTAL ASSETS Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Current Income Taxes Payable Unearned Revenue.3 0.9 202.1 3.

9 11.5 267.8 2.6 143 20.5 -0.5 14. UNUSUAL ITEMS EBT INCL.2 -28.1 28.5 32.6 -2.3 3.1 21.9 12.5 33.3 272.2 0.8 17.7 1.5 0.8 33.7 -0.1 1.5 64.3 76.4 -0.3 1.4 -28.4 25.8 0.1 11. and Amortization OPERATING INCOME Interest Expense Interest and Invest.3 Copyright © 1998 .3 2007-12 288.8 19.1 -44.7 39.5 0.2 39.4 25.9 1.3 0.4 19.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) QUARTERLY FINANCIALS .8 388.8 145.1 -41.9 54.1 1.9 3.7 0.5 33.2 2008-06 340.5 19.5 0.) EBT EXCL.4 57.8 0.4 12.1 31.5 1.3 1.5 100.5 0.1 28.1 31.7 24.6 387.3 15.2 2009-03 354.4 0. 387.1 32. Inc.7 18.8 3.8 32 0.2009 ValuEngine Inc 10 .9 0.5 24.6 33.9 -31.8 32.5 0.1 1.5 19. Income NET INTEREST EXP.9 20.4 20.1 1.1 0.7 -0. Other Non-Oper.5 0.5 271.6 1.5 32.6 32.1 0.5 354.8 243.7 2.4 34.1 0.8 72.8 12.5 34.9 24.3 0.8 57.1 -0.9 31.6 0.5 0.3 2008-03 305.5 0. Stock-Based Compensation Pre-Opening Costs Depr. Diluted EPS Diluted EPS Excl Extra Items Weighted Avg.4 2008-12 345.5 24.4 72.9 225 63.5 1.9 -39.5 32.2 28.9 20.5 15.3 41.9 3. Basic Shares Out.9 13.3 0.5 17.1 0.8 340.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 28.8 0.5 32.9 14.1 83.5 340.8 264.4 35.3 -28.2 0.7 43.1 54.8 2.7 2.3 345.1 -43.1 0. Extra Items Weighted Avg.3 305. (Exp.3 -0.1 31.5 -0.8 2008-09 340.6 244.5 34.1 17 17 17 0.6 15.7 33.3 17.7 32.9 2009-06 388.1 1.5 17.4 1.4 35.1 10.3 -2. UNUSUAL ITEMS Income Tax Expense EARNINGS FROM CONTINUING NET INCOME NI TO COMMON INCL EXTRA ITEMS Basic EPS Basic EPS Excl.INCOME STATEMENT (millions) 2009-09 Revenues TOTAL REVENUES Cost Of Goods Sold GROSS PROFIT Selling General and Admin Exp.9 288.5 0.9 0.5 4.4 1.1 32 -0.2 14.5 17.3 17.4 22 35. Diluted Shares Out.1 1.9 0.2 102.9 25.7 28.9 11.3 17.8 0.3 240.

1 4.7 12.9 0.6 -0 2008-06 24..9 5.1 -0 0.4 -0 -0 3 4.8 0 -0.9 0.9 -0.5 11.6 14.5 -0 Copyright © 1998 .1 100 72.7 -1.2 -23.1 -100 -142.7 5.5 15.3 4 8.8 0.5 -0 -0 3.1 2.3 4.3 -0 0.1 0.7 1.2 15.4 4.5 12.3 -4.2 2.7 -0 -0 0.7 1.5 --28.6 48.2 1.6 47.9 47.1 0.7 5 -0.6 -0.5 -16.4 3.5 13.8 13.5 0.5 3.6 -1 -0.4 -0.8 -0 0.6 5.8 2.9 -0 2008-12 17 14.8 30.8 2.1 6.4 -0 2009-03 25.2 -0 -0 --0 36 -0 2007-12 17.4 -28.7 0. and Write-off of Bad debts Other Operating Activities Change In Accounts Receivable Change In Inventories Change In Accounts Payable Change In Income Taxes Change In Deferred Taxes Change In Other Working Capital CASH FROM OPERATIONS Capital Expenditure Invest.8 -0 -0 0.1 0.2 2. in Marketable and Eqty Securties CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING Long-Term Debt Repaid TOTAL DEBT REPAID Other Financing Activities CASH FROM FINANCING NET CHANGE IN CASH Net Debt Issued 34.1 5.8 63 -27.6 3.2009 ValuEngine Inc 11 .5 1.2 20 -12.3 13.1 0.4 -20 -62.2 --1.7 51.7 14.2 -32.7 --38.5 -5.1 0.1 3.1 -0 2009-06 35.6 -19 116.4 15.1 8.1 -0 1.2 1.1 14.3 12.3 -42.9 3.2 0.7 11.6 1.1 2.7 1.2 64.4 14.1 -1.1 -0 -0 0.3 -9.7 -24.1 -29.7 -0.5 0.3 41.4 2.1 0.1 3.3 16.7 -0.1 0.6 10.2 2.7 -0.7 --24.6 -15.5 1.1 -0 2008-09 19.3 -0.5 15.4 -0.VgluEngine TM DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG) QUARTERLY FINANCIALS .8 -42.7 -0 -0 6. TOTAL (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Asset Stock-Based Compensation Prov.9 -124.4 -39 --39 -0 -0 0.2 12.1 -0.CASH FLOW STATEMENT (millions) 2009-09 Net Income Depreciation and Amortization DEPRECIATION AND AMORT.3 0.4 55 -38.2 1.5 -0 2008-03 17.

VgluEngine

TM

DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG)
VALUENGINE SERVICE DESCRIPTIONS
Thank you for your interest in ValuEngine! ValuEngine Detailed Valuation Report: Advanced academic research that brings you superior investment strategies in an actionable format. The most comprehensive and useful report available. ValuEngine's three models: Valuation Model, Forecast Model and Ratings Model are incorporated to give you a well-rounded analysis from three different perspectives. Consensus EPS trend and Earnings Surprise statistics provide additional insights. Also, detailed Company Profile, ValuEngine Fair Valuation; 1-3-6 month and 1-2-3 yr forecasts, ValuEngine 1-5 Engine Rating, Multi-stock comparison, Financials, Earnings Estimates, Risk Assessment, Data Summary and much more. More report information: http://www.valuengine.com/rep/mainrep To find out more about ValuEngine's many independent and objective investment products and services, please visit our website at www.ValuEngine.com, call us at 1-800-381-5576, or send us an email at support@ValuEngine.com. Below is a brief description of some of our additional products and services. ValuEngine Premium Web Site Stock Analysis Service: A subscription to our website allows access to ValuEngine's proprietary real-time quantitative analysis tools for more than 5,500 U.S., foreign, and ADR stocks which trade on U.S. Markets. You can sign up for a free 14 day no-risk trial period: http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33 The ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter: The ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter features market research, analysis, and commentary from ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier and Senior Analyst Steve Hach. The Weekly includes quantitative market and sector overviews of the entire ValuEngine U.S. stock universe as well as VE data points for hot stocks and industries. Chief Market Strategist Suttmeier provides technical levels for key commodities, indices, and U.S. Treasuries. The ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter also includes tips and tricks for getting the most out of VE's quant-based investment tools. To receive this free newsletter every Friday, sign up here: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/WeeklyNewsletter ValuEngine Premium Newsletters: ValuEngine offers a variety of premium newsletter products designed to meet every style of investment. Active traders should consider Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's ValuEngine Morning Briefing while those looking for a diversified portfolio of both long and short ideas should check out the ValuEngine Forecast 22 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter. VE also offers long-only portfolio newsletter products as well as specialized industry and sector reports. To view sample issues of our many newsletters or to subscribe, go to the Newsletter portion of our website: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl ValuEngine Institutional (VEI): VEI is a software package designed to meet the demanding requirements of Finance Professionals. VEI deploys the power of ValuEngine's quant-based valuation, forecast, portfolio creation/optimization, customization, and database capabilities to your desktop. The software provides access to our proprietary market neutral portfolio strategies and the ability to extract the entire universe database of ValuEngine model outputs each day. Full access to more than 4,000 individual stock reports--like this one--is included with every VEI subscription. VEI provides the finance professional with a fast, objective, accurate, and consistent computerized research department whenever and wherever needed. Whether you are a Fund Manager, a Research House, an Independent Financial Advisor, or an Independent Broker/Dealer with hundreds of financial advisors, VEI will dramatically increase your productivity. To download a free demo, please go to our website at http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?i=0 Consultancy Services: With ValuEngine's 10 years of experience to help you maximize your professional investment strategy, you can differentiate your firm from the competition by offering of time-proven, high-performance research to your clients. ValuEngine private-label products can be customized for funds managers, brokers, financial advisors, newsletter publishers, and web-site owners. Tell us your financial objectives and specify your universe constraints and ValuEngine can provide everything from back testing and strategy development to front and back-end automation services. ValuEngine has the research, IT, and mathematical brainpower on staff to provide Funds and Institutions with complete solutions to their research, development, and strategy-implementation needs. Please call (800) 381-5576 to speak with a sales representative or email support@valuEngine.com.

Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc

12

VgluEngine

TM

DETAILED RESEARCH REPORT

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC(CMG)
VALUENGINE'S METHODOLOGY
ValuEngine's research combines the most advanced academic concepts with real world Wall Street practice. The result is state-of-the-art fair market valuation and price forecasting technologies. ValuEngine's stock valuation employs a sophisticated, three-factor approach. Fundamental variables, such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield, are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. Together with eleven additional variables, ValuEngine paints a detailed picture of a company's fair value, represented by the model price. ValuEngine's stock forecasts examine, among other things, shortterm price reversals, intermediate-term momentum continuation, and long-term price reversals over six time horizons for every industry to ensure forecasts are established relative to a stock's proper peer groups. Advanced statistical/econometric techniques are used to run thousands of simulations estimating the probability of a double in stock price, as well as the probability of meeting and exceeding any given portfolio or stock investment target. The stock's engine rating is an assessment of its overall attractiveness. It combines valuation, risk-return trade-off, momentum, market capitalization and forecasted future returns. Only two percent of the stock universe receives the highest 5-engine rating. The lowest rating is a single engine. For more information on ValuEngine, its models and performance, go to www.ValuEngine.com

Engine Rating and Average Annual Return
(Jan 1990 - Dec 2009)

Avg Return (%)

20 15 10 5 0 -5 1 2 3 4 5

Engine Rating

DISCLOSURES
ValuEngine offers equity recommendations and related return estimates to investors and their advisors. It uses a three-class Buy-Hold-Sell rating system. This is a consolidated version of the firm's five class rating system: most favorable and favorable ratings are buys; neutral ratings are holds and the categories unfavorable and most unfavorable are sells. STOCK RATINGS: The terms below are used to rate a stock's 12-month performance: 1. Buy: Expected to outperform the SP500 producing above average returns. 2. Hold: Expected to perform in line with the SP500 with average returns. 3. Sell: Expected to underperform the SP500 producing below-average returns. ValuEngine does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. ValuEngine adheres to professional standards and abides by formal codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of their own. The following are specific disclosures made by ValuEngine with regards to this research report: 1. ValuEngine, Inc. does not make a market in this security. 2. ValuEngine, Inc. has not received compensation from the companies discussed above in the last 12 months. 3. ValuEngine has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any companies in the above report in the past twelve months. 4. None of ValuEngine's management, the analysts involved, nor a member of the research analyst's household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies discussed in this report. 5. The research analyst over this company or members of his/her household do not have a financial interest in these companies discussed in this report. 6. ValuEngine, Inc. or its affiliates do not beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject companies. 7. Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: a). all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and b). no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.

DISCLAIMERS
This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of ValuEngine at the time the report was released. The opinions of ValuEngine are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation of notification. ValuEngine does not provide investment banking or consulting services to the companies mentioned in this report. ValuEngine does not receive any compensation from companies mentioned in this report. The author, officers, or affiliates of ValuEngine do not hold positions in the securities of the companies mentioned in this report. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of ValuEngine, Inc. Any other use, distribution, or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Quotes provided by Data Transmission Network, Inc.(www.dtn.com)

Copyright © 1998 - 2009 ValuEngine Inc

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