1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

PMS
Ventas N=2
350
345
335
355
400
390
380
410
412
420
425
426
430
433
434
440
441
443
447
450
456
460

MED
ES

ERROR

347.5
340
345
377.5
395
385
395
411
416
422.5
425.5
428
431.5
433.5
437
440.5
442
445
448.5
453
458

156.25
225
3025
156.25
225
625
289
81
81
12.25
20.25
25
6.25
42.25
16
6.25
25
25
56.25
49

257.35
16.042132

N=4

ERROR

346.25
358.75
370
381.25
395
398
405.5
416.75
420.75
425.25
428.5
430.75
434.25
437
439.5
442.75
445.25
449
453.25

2889.0625
976.5625
100
826.5625
289
484
380.25
85.5625
85.5625
60.0625
30.25
85.5625
45.5625
36
56.25
52.5625
115.5625
121

373.298611
19.3209371

N=6

362.5
367.5
378.333333
391.166667
402
406.166667
412.166667
420.5
424.333333
428
431.333333
434
436.833333
439.666667
442.5
446.166667
449.5

ERROR

306.25
1806.25
1133.44444
831.361111
529
393.361111
318.027778
156.25
93.4444444
144
93.4444444
81
103.361111
106.777778
182.25
191.361111

404.348958
20.10843

N=8

370.625
378.375
387.75
399
407.875
411.625
417
423.75
427.5
431.125
434
436.75
439.75
443
446.375

ERROR

1711.89063
1732.64063
1387.5625
729
489.515625
456.890625
289
264.0625
182.25
141.015625
169
175.5625
264.0625
289

591.532366
24.3214384

N=10

ERROR

379.7
387.2
395.3
404.8
412.6
416
421
427.1
430.4
433.9
436.9
440
443.4

2052.09
1505.44
1204.09
795.24
457.96
576
400
252.81
275.56
259.21
364.81
400

711.934167
26.6820945

N=12

387.333333
394
401.333333
409.583333
416.666667
420.083333
424.5
430.083333
433.416667
437.083333
440.416667

ERROR

1820.44444
1521
1067.11111
925.173611
592.111111
525.173611
506.25
396.673611
510.006944
525.173611

838.911806
28.9639743

SES
ALFA =0.2
350
350
349
346.2
347.96
358.368
364.6944
367.75552
376.204416
383.363533
390.690826
397.552661
403.242129
408.593703
413.474962
417.57997
422.063976
425.851181
429.280945
432.824756
436.259805
440.207844
444.166275

ERROR
0
25
196
77.44
2708.1616
1000.58342
234.261391
1784.59609
1281.32383
1342.23073
1177.1194
809.251097
715.983671
595.667332
421.277167
502.657748
358.573007
294.082001
313.964924
294.989017
389.675316
391.729453

710.217486
26.6499059

ALFA=0.4
350
350
348
342.8
347.68
368.608
377.1648
378.29888
390.979328
399.387597
407.632558
414.579535
419.147721
423.488633
427.29318
429.975908
433.985545
436.791327
439.274796
442.364878
445.418927
449.651356
453.790814

ERROR

ALFA=0.6

ERROR

350
25
350
169
347
148.84
339.8
2737.3824
348.92
457.617664
379.568
8.03835904
385.8272
1004.96101
382.33088
441.868651 398.932352
424.871166 406.772941
301.628039 414.709176
130.427024 420.883671
117.771961 423.953468
90.4661109 427.581387
44.9814409 430.832555
100.482426 432.733022
49.2025841 437.093209
38.5476232 439.437284
59.6787758 441.574913
58.2950935 444.829965
111.959115 447.931986
107.094434 452.772794
457.109118

25
144
231.04
2609.1664
108.826624
33.9562598
765.580202
170.763424
174.955095
105.901052
26.1768273
36.5605467
29.3613638
10.0327084
52.8089698
15.2630176
12.6929488
29.4315646
26.7292582
65.0928476
52.2324999

315.62447
17.7658231

225.027219
15.0009073

ALFA=0.8
350
350
346
337.2
351.44
390.288
390.0576
382.01152
404.402304
410.480461
418.096092
423.619218
425.523844
429.104769
432.220954
433.644191
438.728838
440.545768
442.509154
446.101831
449.220366
454.644073
458.928815

ERROR
25
121
316.84
2358.0736
0.082944
101.155318
783.355013
57.7249845
90.6216266
47.6639435
5.66812087
20.0359753
15.1728266
3.16500557
40.3963112
5.15817615
6.02325653
20.1677021
15.1957239
45.9634353
28.6859516

195.578567
13.9849407

PMD
N=4

PMD

346.25
358.75
370
381.25
395
398
405.5
416.75
420.75
425.25
428.5
430.75
434.25
437
439.5
442.75
445.25
449
453.25

364.0625
376.25
386.0625
394.9375
403.8125
410.25
417.0625
422.8125
426.3125
429.6875
432.625
435.375
438.375
441.125
444.125
447.5625

398.4375
413.75
409.9375
416.0625
429.6875
431.25
433.4375
434.1875
435.1875
438.8125
441.375
443.625
447.125
449.375
453.875
458.9375

PMD

11.4583333
12.5
7.95833333
7.04166667
8.625
7
5.45833333
3.79166667
2.95833333
3.04166667
2.91666667
2.75
2.91666667
2.75
3.25
3.79166667

409.895833
426.25
417.895833
423.104167
438.3125
438.25
438.895833
437.979167
438.145833
441.854167
444.291667
446.375
450.041667
452.125
457.125
462.729167
466.520833
470.3125
474.104167
477.895833
481.6875

PMD
N=6

362.5
367.5
378.333333
391.166667
402
406.166667
412.166667
420.5
424.333333
428
431.333333
434
436.833333
439.666667
442.5
446.166667
449.5

PMD

384.611111
392.888889
401.722222
409.388889
415.527778
420.416667
425.055556
429.166667
432.361111
435.388889
438.416667
441.444444

427.722222
431.444444
439.277778
439.277778
440.472222
442.25
442.944444
444.5
446.972222
449.611111
453.916667
457.555556

PMD

8.62222222
7.71111111
7.51111111
5.97777778
4.98888889
4.36666667
3.57777778
3.06666667
2.92222222
2.84444444
3.1
3.22222222

436.344444
439.155556
446.788889
445.255556
445.461111
446.616667
446.522222
447.566667
449.894444
452.455556
457.016667
460.777778
464
467.222222
470.444444
473.666667
476.888889

PMD
N=8

PMD

370.625
378.375
387.75
399
407.875
411.625
417
423.75
427.5
431.125
434
436.75
439.75
443
446.375

399.5
406.609375
413.203125
418.984375
423.703125
427.6875
431.609375
435.28125

448
448.390625
449.046875
449.015625
449.796875
451.8125
454.390625
457.46875

6.92857143
5.96875
5.12053571
4.29017857
3.72767857
3.44642857
3.25446429
3.16964286

485.995536

PMD

454.928571
454.359375
454.167411
453.305804
453.524554
455.258929
457.645089
460.638393
463.808036
466.977679
470.147321
473.316964
476.486607
479.65625
482.825893
485.995536

SED
ALFA=0.2
350
350
349
346.2
347.96
358.368
364.6944
367.75552
376.204416
383.363533
390.690826
397.552661
403.242129
408.593703
413.474962
417.57997
422.063976
425.851181
429.280945
432.824756
436.259805
440.207844

SED
350
350
350
349.8
349.08
348.856
350.7584
353.5456
356.387584
360.35095
364.953467
370.100939
375.591283
381.121452
386.615902
391.987714
397.106166
402.097728
406.848418
411.334924
415.63289
419.758273

B
350
348
342.6
346.84
367.88
378.6304
381.96544
396.021248
406.376115
416.428186
425.004383
430.892974
436.065954
440.334022
443.172225
447.021786
449.604634
451.713471
454.314588
456.886719
460.657414

PRONOSTICO
0
-0.25
-0.9
-0.28
2.378
3.484
3.55248
4.954208
5.7531456
6.43433984
6.86293056
6.9127114
6.86806268
6.71476499
6.39806387
6.2394526
5.93836328
5.60813159
5.37245804
5.15672865
5.11239269

350
347.75
341.7
346.56
370.258
382.1144
385.51792
400.975456
412.129261
422.862525
431.867314
437.805686
442.934016
447.048787
449.570289
453.261239
455.542997
457.321603
459.687046
462.043448
465.769807
470.8822
475.994592
481.106985
486.219378
491.331771
496.444163
501.556556

SED
ALFA=0.6

SES

SED

PRONOS TICO