ATOS - Ascent Look Out - Telecom Media - Technology

look out
Trends 2012+
Telecom,
media
& technology
At Atos we strive to create the

firm of the future. We believe
that bringing together people,
technology and business is the way
forward.
Every day we power sustainable
progress for our clients and
partners, the wider community and
ourselves. It is our unique approach
as business technologists that
makes this possible.
Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+
Contents
Editorial
``
Welcome to Ascent Look Out 2012+........................................................................................................................................5
Introduction
``
View from the Atos Telecom, Media & Technology Global Market Leader.............................. 9
``
Why is Ascent Look Out different?..........................................................................................................................................10
Focus On
``
Social Organization.................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Innovation Radars
``
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar: Socio-Cultural............................................................................................................... 20
``
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar: Economic..........................................................................................................................24
``
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar: Political..................................................................................................................................28
``
2012+ CxO Agenda Radar................................................................................................................................................................. 32
``
2012+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar.................................................................................................38
Telecom, Media & Technology Market View
``
Telecom Business Imperatives....................................................................................................................................................46
``
Telecom Business Trends..................................................................................................................................................................49
``
Telecom Business Impact of Emerging Technologies and Solutions........................................... 52
``
Media Business Imperatives............................................................................................................................................................57
``
Media Business Trends.........................................................................................................................................................................59
``
Media Business Impact of Emerging Technologies and Solutions..................................................62
Innovation Radars in Detail
``
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Socio-Cultural..................................................................................... 68
``
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Economic.................................................................................................76
``
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Political........................................................................................................ 86
``
2012+ CxO Agenda in Detail...........................................................................................................................................................94
``
2012+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar in Detail.....................................................................108
Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................................................134
Editorial
Welcome to Ascent
Look Out 2012+
Marc BERTRAND/CHALLENGES-REA
A new IT era is beginning: the era of business technology. It is

the age of connectivity and of transparency - with ecosystems
and communities that are increasingly interdependent and
accountable. Progressive organizations have accepted that
business does not have to be about profit at the expense of
society and the environment. Organizations are reinventing their
business models to create sustainable value and master the
challenges of todays volatile world.
At the intersection of technology, people and business there are
insights and innovations that will enable you to take steps forward.
Ascent Look Out aims to raise awareness of the emerging trends,

business needs and technologies that will drive innovation; and
because innovation is about turning new ideas into real business
value, the insights within this briefing, along with our deep knowledge of our clients and their
businesses, will help you to create the Firm of the Future.
We hope you enjoy reading Ascent Look Out; we have enjoyed putting it together. As a thoughtprovoking read, we are sure it will bring you a great deal of value.
Thierry Breton
Atos, Chairman and CEO
Introduction
Introduction
View from the Atos

Telecom, Media & Technology
Global Market Leader
Previous issues tracked the world as it evolved
after the near-collapse of the global markets
back in 2008. With the impact of tightened
budgets alongside restricted commercial
capital lending now being felt, many sectors
are continuing to face immense challenges.
Organizations with vastly reduced budgets
must transform to ensure a sustainable future
business whilst, at the same time, improving
current levels of service.
These challenges are tough, but they
cannot be ignored. Organizations that are
transformed and prepared for growth will be
the winners in the almost unrecognizable
world of the future. In this future world, new
technologies, smart access to information and
universal connectivity will have empowered
the individual the citizen, the consumer,
the patient, the passenger, the customer, the
investor
We hope this issue will continue to present a
clear, independent and authoritative source
of market insight that will help you to make
key decisions about your business, keeping
you one step ahead as the world transforms
itself whilst struggling to emerge from the
downturn.
What kind of changes will we see in the still
volatile, ever more complex, world? The world,
and individuals views of it, will be increasingly
driven by what individuals (rather than brands)
share using the new digital, online, multimedia on mobile and TV. Brands will discretely
become part of this new driving force.

Empowered, informed consumers will become
ever more demanding expecting higher
service levels, access to new technologies and
services as soon as they become available,
and increased personal privacy. Telco and
media companies will strengthen their role in
the digital value chain, actively participating in
the evolution of new business models.
What will drive future growth? Technology
will certainly play its part as organizations
unlock the potential of engaging with industry
communities, individual customers and
academia in the hyper-connected, hypercollaborative marketplace. Indeed, smart
mobility providing anywhere access to
real-time, meaningful information, generated
from the vast quantities of structured and
unstructured data produced by multitude
of diverse sources, will be vital for reacting
quickly to new and promising business
opportunities.
In this context, the fourth issue of Ascent
Look Out has a special Focus On section
devoted to the Social Organization that
transforms collaboration by combining people
connections, knowledge and processes.
This transformation engages a new way of
working, and is supported by collaborative
tools enhanced with social media technology.
The result is an organization that delivers
higher performance at lower cost, and a more
content workforce.
We are already seeing early adopters already

gain competitive advantage from the many
potential opportunities that the Social
Organization has to offer.
Other highlights include our overview of the
latest trends and opportunities in SEP (Sociocultural, Economic, and Political) and on the
agenda. The second-half of the book provides
more in-depth expert analysis of these areas
and a detailed reference guide on the key
vertical market sectors and what we can
expect to see from them in the months and
years ahead.
Youll find more information, alternative
versions of Ascent Look Out for other key
market sectors (Public Sector, Energy and
Utilities, Manufacturing and Financial Services),
and have the opportunity to register for
updates on our Ascent Look Out website,
www.lookout.atos.net.
Wed love to hear your comments so that we
can make sure that the next issue of Ascent
Look Out continues to provide a valuable
overview into todays often volatile business
environment.
I hope you enjoy this issue and look forward
to hearing your views.
Bruno Fabre
Atos, Global Market Leader Telecom, Media &
Technology
Introduction
Why is Ascent Look Out

different?
A new IT era is beginning: the era of business
technology. It is the age of connectivity
and of transparency - with ecosystems
and communities that are increasingly
interdependent and accountable. Progressive
organizations have accepted that business
does not have to be about profit at the
expense of society and the environment.
Organizations are reinventing their business
models to create sustainable value and master
the challenges of todays volatile world.
There has never been a better time to see
how technologys possibilities can power
progress for your business. As business
technologists we can provide that vision
a vision that we deliver through our
commitment to innovation.
Innovation is part of our DNA. We are very
clear about what innovation truly means and
about how we enable our clients to ensure
that it becomes part of their own company
DNA, as it is part of ours. Innovation can be
seen everywhere.
Look Out supports our vision of how
technologys new possibilities can power
progress for your business. It was first
published in 2008, when it provided a panEuropean market view of the present and
the future. Since 2010, when we deployed
an open innovation platform across the
company, every single employee has had the
opportunity to contribute to this collaborative
global initiative.
10
2011 saw Siemens IT Solutions and Services

employees coming into our fold, creating
a new European IT Services market leader.
Thought leadership and bringing the insights
from business leaders to their clients was
as much a part of the culture at Siemens IT
Solutions and Services as it always has been at
Atos, as highlighted by their widely-respected
Ascent leadership events.
Atos Innovation Workshops build on Ascent

Look Out, enabling key players within your
organization to gain a new perception of what
new technologies can mean for you in terms
of how they can reduce costs and/or increase
the top line of your business. We also offer
Scenario Planning Workshops, which build on
the knowledge and insight that Ascent Look
Out provides.
Ascent began with a desire to give customers

a chance to hear from leading thinkers, to
inspire them to adopt the latest technology
and aim higher with their business. It seemed
a natural synergy to bring Look Out together
with our other publications and thought
leadership channels under the banner of
Ascent in order to bring you the broadest,
most reliable coverage of the key trends in
your industry.
Today, Ascent Look Out brings together the
knowledge and insight from subject matter
experts from across Atos - different countries,
service lines, market specialists and members
of the ninety-strong Scientific Community.
Ascent Look Out 2012+ has seen other
changes too: we have organized this years
publication by industry group, reflecting the
key Global Markets of our new company.
See what other say about Ascent Look Out:
We launched our own Ascent

Look Out radars at Total two years
ago. With assistance from Atos,
we have completed and renewed
the 40 technology overviews
and their impact on our business
priorities each year. The Ascent
Look Out radars are now available
on our intranet, enabling every Total
employee to innovate further.
Dominique Lefebvre
Director e-Novation, Total
France
If innovation and sustainability are

among your top business priorities,
Ascent Look Out is the right tool for
you. Every chapter provides you with
a complete description of the trends
that will shape the future, covering all
relevant dimensions.
Deusto Business School is proud
to use the Atos Ascent Look Out
information during our executive
masters, especially within our Master
in Business Innovation (MBI) where
our executive students are learning
and experimenting with how to use
insights and long-term foresight to
assess potential futures. This is crucial
for preparing us and our organizations
for the challenges and opportunities
ahead.
There is quite a bit of material

published nowadays about trends
and where particular industries are
supposedly heading. Ascent Look
Out briefing pack is among the best.
There is a rigor behind thinking,
which I think is missing in many other
publications, and the way that the
material is laid out is also engaging.
Richard Watson
CEO and Founder of the Whats Next trends
report, www.nowandnext.com
Dr Manuel Escudero
Managing Director of Deusto Business School
Spain
11
Focus On
12
13
Focus On
Social
Organization
Creating real business value from
the three Cs: connections, content
and collaboration
Over the last decade, as product lifecycles
have become shorter, organizations have
been encouraged to collaborate more with
partners outside their organizations sharing
the investment burden, risks and rewards.
Increasing external collaboration increases the
rate of growth: it fosters innovation, enabling
new services and products to be brought to
the market more quickly.
The need to collaborate outside the borders of
the enterprise has heightened the importance
of governance and risk management, and
introduced a new way of working.
The assumptions of the Social Organization

are then around two key principles:
``
Communication will increasingly be within
communities (which could be either grass
roots or company sponsored) and less
through hierarchical line
``
Each employee will belong to several
communities: some of them on a voluntary
basis, some of them because of his/her
function or skills
Creating the appropriate communities within
the enterprise is the prerequisite for a social
organization to happen, but the difficulty is in
choosing the right ones. Increasing levels of
collaboration requires organizations to operate
differently. As D. Bijl4 put it, This is about a
novel way of control and collaboration, to
better meet the wishes and demands of the
various stakeholders. Organizations already
operating this way share the following key
characteristics:
Some organizations have already expanded

beyond national boundaries to form
international enterprises; they are now
looking to become truly global organizations.
However, teams are separated: by time zones,
geographies and cultures. Team members
may not even be in a corporate office, but
may work from home, a hotel or a public
place.
``
From management to leadership
A new way of working
``
A personal connection with work and the
organization
A. Bradley and M. McDonald6 are proposing

an approach to prepare enterprises for mass
collaboration by addressing two key issues:
(1) how to make sure that the purpose of a
community is in line with the objectives of the
company, and (2) the level of sponsorship that
a given community needs to survive when it
is not a grass root community (for example,
is the own interest of members is enough to
keep the community alive?).
14
``
Working anytime, anywhere
``
Giving and receiving trust
``
Output-driven; not effort-driven
Most of all, this is about helping organizations

adopt a new approach to how they work
and how they deal with customers, staff
and stakeholders. The new way of working
should not be the result of the use of specific
technology it should be the result of
visionary and bold leadership.
Leadership is a key success factor in the way
and degree in which organizations adopt the
new way of working. The new way of working
focuses on the individual, and this demands
an approach based on the individual be this
the manager or the employee.
Imagine: The Firm of the Future

Over the last decade, new communication
technologies have embraced society. The new
way of working embraces the communication
mindset, tools and techniques that consumers
are already using for communication and
collaboration (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, for
instance) in the workplace. This is increasing
efficiency, fostering innovation and helping
organizations grow.
The coming together of traditional enterprise
collaboration tools, content management and
social networking will create the next wave
of disruptive technologies and innovative
business processes. These will ultimately
change the way that enterprises collaborate
both internally and externally. It may even
lead to the formation of highly connected and
borderless enterprises in the longer term.
``
Focused on effective collaboration
``
Creating room; not imposingrules
``
Tailored communication and tools
``
Dialogue; not one-way communications
``
Access to relevant information, anytime, any
place
Zero email ambition

Workplace communication has changed a
lot over the past fifty years, largely due to
the introduction of networks and electronic
communication systems. People and
information are easier to access than ever
before and organizations are now thought of
as networks of individuals as well as formal
hierarchies or location-based entities. One
of the applications that radically changed
the way people work (together) is email.
Just decades ago we were working away, in
offices with large filing cabinets and we were
getting used to email as a means to exchange
information. Today, if we look around us, the
world has dramatically changed. Everyone is
using mobile devices for communicating with
others, offices are changing into open working
environments and... were still using email.
In fact, email is no longer some program we
launch in order to check if there are any new
messages, like we used to do. Instead, email
has become a large part of our daily routine.
Ducheneaut and Watts identified three
metaphors to describe how email is being
used7:
``
A filing cabinet people manage and
access email archives as a personal
knowledge system
``
A production line people collaborate with
others to accomplish work tasks
``
A communication genre email is used in
organizational settings to carry out group
work.
On February 7th 2011 Atos CEO and Chairman,

Thierry Breton, spoke out to the world
addressing the challenges organizations face
as a result of the explosion in data, the rise of
the social web and the changing attitudes and
behavior towards work. In answer to these
challenges, and indicating that the amount of
email being sent and received has become
unsustainable, Mr. Breton explained his
ambition to eradicate all emails between Atos
employees5.
Inspired by stakeholder groups

From this perspective, the new way of working
becomes an enabler of collaboration and
transformation. This new way of working is not
technology: it is the vision and desire of the
stakeholder groups that inspire ideas on the
best working practices.
These communities will resuscitate a very
ancient practice which has been theorized
by an anthropologist as Marcel Mauss8 who
explained: The way that the exchange of
objects between groups builds relationships
between humans. In the social organization,
people are not any more exchanging objects,
but information through the cooperation
mechanism: the community can only work
if the members are giving information to
each others, expecting a reciprocal exchange
that is by definition not monetized Norbert
Alter9 inspired by Marcel Mauss explains
that cooperation is vital for companies to
make sure that people working with defined
processes can deal with local failures or
temporary objective misalignment10.
The Firm of the Future engages

all stakeholders: customers,
partners, teams, employees
Organizations are enabling a new way of
working by connecting people employees
as well as customers and partners whether
they are in the same location or across
geographies. It uses social media tools, which
help to answer some of the challenges of
the new working environment: an increase
in remote working, more virtual teams, new
expectations from the new workforce and the
need for co-creation with suppliers, partners
and even competitors.
In the new way of working, communities
are key. Unlike the traditional corporate
environment, where information flow is
ordered and information passes down the
chain from top to bottom, the Firm of the
Future allows information to flow up down and
laterally. Informal communication is accepted
and even favored. The new way of working
severs the chains that hinder collaboration
in a traditional office environment, helping to
boost productivity.
Web 2.0 introduced the technologies and
tools that resulted in the social networks
that have become exceptionally popular
in the consumer world today. Now is the
time for organizations to catch up and take
advantage of these solutions. They are vital
for connecting people in the workplace for
a given purpose. This will not only help save
costs (as people will need to travel less), it will
also improve decision making and empower
employees.
15
Organizational structures must adapt

The matrix organization is a structure that has
been used in organizations for many years.
It allows relationships between employees
and management to be described in a matrix
square. In this structure, functional leaders are
usually responsible for more than one area
of operation, and employees often report to
their immediate manager as well as a crossfunction leader. In matrix management, there
is a distinction between a solid-line manager
(typically a function manager that remains
stable) and a dotted-line manager (such as a
project manager who is coordinating different
departments for a specific project for a limited
period). This aims to make the reporting
structure easier to understand.
As the so-called knowledge era evolves
further, with focus placed more on intellectual
(social) assets, organizational structures
must adapt to keep up. This has led to the
emergence of complex structures, where
relationships are increasingly defined by
interactions among individuals and groups.
Management needs to modify its practices to
support the complex and adaptive needs of
todays organizations.
Management in the new way of working

Management in the new way of working will
take account of and respond to changes in the
marketplace and in society. Managers will be
more adept at listening to and communicating
with their employees. They must also fully
understand the companys vision and be
able to convey that vision to employees. That
vision is one where managers:
``
Understand their role in sharing information
``
Care about the career and development of
their employees, actively and appropriately
encouraging and promoting them
``
Give employees a say in decisions and how
things are done (they may well have good
ideas about how to be more effective or
efficient)
16
``
Trust employees to get their work done in
the appropriate timeframe and let them
achieve their goals in the way that suits
them best
The most important outcomes for

management in the new way of working will
be:
``
Offer real feedback (both good and bad,
not just criticism) and know how to receive
feedback (both good and bad, and take the
opportunity to change if required)
``
Create opportunities for employees to learn
and be challenged.
``
A better understanding and meeting of
(global) client needs
``
Improved people development
``
Higher levels of employee engagement and
the creation of a great place to work
``
Innovation greater than before, with new
ways of deploying existing solutions
``
Effective intercultural sensitivity
and all this whilst still managing to reach

revenue and operating margin targets.
``
Enhanced revenue and operating margin
(as a consequence of the result areas
mentioned above).

requires a shift of mindset; and therein
lays one of the greatest challenges. Whilst
revenue and operating margins remain
essential, people development, trust and
communication become crucial too.
Supporting people, organizations

and data

understands that employees want to stay
with the organizations that actively work to
reinforce their employability; Generation Y,
in particular, wants to be inspired and to be
held accountable. If they do not see individual
development opportunities in their managers
style, they become frustrated and simply give
up.
By communicating better with their workforce,
trusting them and encouraging them,
organizations will benefit from considerably
more engaged employees, who feel that
they belong. By providing the tools and
technologies that can help them collaborate
more effectively and undertake daily tasks
more efficiently, organizations can create
conviviality, communities and a collaborative
workforce that works as one no matter
where in the world they are located.
The Firm of the Future embraces two

important paradigms that will empower
organizations to make the step change:
``
A New Way of Working: The digital
company places information efficiency,
collective intelligence and preservation
at the heart of its business by adopting
an end-to-end information management
vision; this stretches from paper and
process digitalization to information sharing,
collaboration and archiving. Seen from
extended and ubiquitous perspective,
people need to access information and
collaborate anywhere, at anytime, with
anybody, whether theyre internal or
external.
``
Wellbeing at Work: Human capital
management is rethinking the workplace:
fostering and rewarding talents while
reinforcing the social link between
employees. The latent value from this shift
serves the strategic goals of organizations:
qualitative and quantitative gains in the
value chain, anticipating the data deluge
era, pointing out business process paralysis
risks.
The Firm of the Future equation
Sources
The strength of the smart organization is

the combination of connections, knowledge
and processes. Organizations will use new
collaborative tools, based on social media
technology, to make it easier to work together.
Finding the right information is accelerated if
people are able to locate the right people and
the right knowledge without delay.
The result: higher performance at lower cost,

and a more content workforce they have
an easier job with more flexibility and, most
importantly, feel they have an important role
in driving the future of the company.
New leaders for the new ways of work, Atos

Consulting, May 2010
Smart Organization publication, Atos Origin,
2011
Blueprint for management 2.0, Atos Origin

Wellbeing@work Program, March 2011
Bijl, D., Aan de slag met het nieuwewerken,

Par CC, 2010
Innovation Conference, Atos Origin, February

2011
The Social Organization: How to Use Social

Media to Tap the Collective Genius of Your
Customers and Employees, Anthony J.
Bradley and Mark P. McDonald
Ducheneaut, N. and Watts, L. A., In search

of coherence: A review of email research.,
Human Computer Interaction, Vol. 20:11--48,
2005
Marcel Mauss The Gift, 1923
Norbert Alter Give and take the cooperation

in enterprise (not yet translated in English)
the sociologist
Atos Blog - http://blog.atos.net - Hubert
Tardieu The Grail Quest for Social
Organization, Dec. 6, 2011
10
17
Innovation Radars
18
19
Innovation Radars
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar:

Socio-Cultural
The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future - keep watching), through
maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore - already driving new business needs).
Urbanization
Changing Attitudes
Towards Work(place)
Digital Connected Society
Changing Family Unit

Intensive Lifestyles
Eco-Awareness
Community Building
Ageing Population
Individualisation
Inherent Reliance
on Technology
Information Owned by Many
Multi-Ethnic Society
Emerging issues
Maturing issues
Burning issues
The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail
20
Aging population
Community building
Eco-awareness
Asia and Europe are the two regions in which

a significant number of countries face severe
population ageing in the near future. Within
twenty years, many Asian and European
countries will face a situation where the largest
population cohort will be those over 65 and
the average age will be approaching 50.
Increased personal and social mobility

decreases the likelihood of generations of the
same family living in the same geographical
area. It also leads to a rise in single person
households, with young professionals in
particular more likely to more around and live
alone, away from their traditional (family) and
geographical networks. As a consequence of
this, and possibly as a backlash against the
trend towards individualization, new ways of
community building are emerging. Much of
this activity occurs on the Internet, and Web
2.0 is an important carrier wave.
There are signs that eco-awareness or green

consumption is really taking hold. Survey
figures show a tripling of green purchasing
in 2008 compared to 2007. Generally,
consumers would like to buy more sustainable
goods if the quality of these products is seen
as higher. The 2011 Green Brands Survey
found that consumer interest in green
products continues to increase and has
expanded across categories from personal
care, food and household products to
automotive, energy and technology goods.
Changing attitude towards

work(place)
Attitudes relating to work (work-life balance)
and the workplace seem to be shifting,
especially in the advanced economies.
Basically it is about giving a person more
control over the conditions at work. It is
accomplished when people feel dually
satisfied about their personal life and their
paid occupation.
Changing family unit

Over the past couple of decades, particularly
in the West, the traditional family unit has
radically changed and new models have
arisen. There has been a decrease in the
number of children living in families that
are headed by a couple and an increase in
those living in families with a lone parent. It
is not only the family unit, but households in
general that are changing: the growing trend
is towards singularization.
Digitally-connected society
This is enabling people to share information
easily and to consult each other on
any number of issues, such as product
information, instead of relying on professional
critics. One of the reactions of companies
will be (and has already been) to offer more
customer-to-customer forums as a marketing
instrument.
Individualization
Western countries have the highest degree of
individualization, but we are also witnessing
increasing individualization in, for instance
Asia. According to experts, access to
education, media and growing affluence are
the main drivers behind this trend.
21
Information owned by many
Multi-ethnic society
Companies and individuals alike are now no

longer in control of the information written
about them on the Web, with nuggets of
information appearing within many diverse
sources. It is not easy to either seek out all the
information or influence the impression that it
is making.
Transnational migration flows shape societies

future character. This has always been the
case. Households in the West are increasingly
multi-ethnic. In big cities, their multi-cultural or
cosmopolitan nature is more accepted. In the
periphery, multi- ethnicity causes suspicion
and fear. Nonetheless, such cultural tensions
are not always consistent and might be more
about clashing value systems.
Inherent reliance on technology

The use of personal electronics has taken
off dramatically over the last twenty years.
Technology has moved from novelty to
necessity in a very short time. Some studies
show that the mobile phone is the second
object (after their keys, but before their wallet)
that users realize they have forgotten and left
at home. Day and night, it serves as a personal
assistant and as a remote control for their
world.
Intensive lifestyles
Life seems increasingly intensive, especially
with the amount of information people get
and variety of must-do private activities that
are now available. Personal lives can be very
demanding. However, this concept is not
solely about intensity of the personal lives.
The idea of intensive lifestyles relates to work
and the work-life balance of a person and
his or her control over the conditions in the
workplace. Balance is accomplished when
people feel satisfied about both their personal
life and their paid occupation. It mutually
benefits the individual, business and society
when a persons personal life is balanced with
his or her own job.
22
Urbanization
Humanity is rapidly urbanizing; the size
and number of cities will continue to grow,
particularly in the developing world. It is
estimated that up to 80% of the worlds
population will be living in urban areas by
2050. Urbanization and the development of
large cities pose massive challenges in areas
of governance and government planning,
public health, sustainability (cities create 75%
of CO2 emissions and need massive amounts
of water), crime (due to slum conditions);
infrastructure, housing and mobility and
economic development.
23
Innovation Radars

Economic
Rise of the
Entreployee
Shifting Centres of
Economic Activity
Venture
Philanthropy
Shift to Knowledge-Intensive Industries

Competition for Natural Resources
and Alternative Energy Sources
Greening Business
Back-Shoring
Ubiquitous Access
to Information
Industry Consolidaton
Cyber Threats
Economic Volatility
Stakeholder Power
Peer-to-Peer Trading
Knowledge Process
Outsourcing
Global Consumer
Markets
Micro-Segmentation
of Market Place
Global Labour &
Talent Market
Multi-Currency
Monetary
System
De-Commoditization
Burning issues
Maturing issues
Emerging issues
24
Back-shoring
De-commoditization
Global labor and talent market
Back-shoring is a countertrend for

Western companies that have off-shored
manufacturing facilities to cheap labor cost
countries. Technological advancement
makes it possible to produce goods or deliver
services with less people, so that labor costs
become less relevant. High transportation
costs have made it more economical
to back-shore production activities and
automate them, thus eliminating labor and
transportation costs.
More and more products and services

today are starting to look like commodities
because of Chinafication (copying), emerging
technologies, increasing global competition
and the increasing expectations of consumers.
Despite growing unemployment numbers,

ongoing shifts in labor and talent will be far
more profound than migration of jobs to
low-wage countries. The shift to knowledgeintensive industries continues to highlight
the importance and scarcity of well-trained
talent, mainly because of the ageing society.
Essentially, this is about moving jobs and
mobility of talent.
Competition for natural resources

and alternative energy sources
As long-term economic growth accelerates,
especially in emerging markets such as the
BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China),
and despite the current economic downturn,
we are using natural resources and energy
sources at increasing rates. This is leading to
increasing competition over needed resources
such as oil, water, energy, grain and raw
materials.
Cyber threats
Potential targets in internet sabotage include
all aspects of the Internet, from the backbones
of the Web to the Internet Service Providers,
to the varying types of data communication
mediums and network equipment of
companies and individuals. Electrical grids and
telecommunication systems are also deemed
vulnerable, especially because of the current
trends in automation.
Economic volatility
The world was slowly recovering, led by the
emerging markets (China), with much of the
growth in the Western economies (until this
point) stemming from massive government
stimulus packages. The wider economic
climate is now quite different, with a twospeed world likely to persist into the medium
term buoyant growth in the East and in
emerging economies whilst most of the
Western economies are projected to show
weak growth constrained by sovereign risk,
debt leveraging, the Euro crisis, volatility in the
financial markets and unemployment.
Global consumer markets

As soon as the last economic downturn
subsides, it is expected that a billion new
consumers will enter the global consumer
marketplace as revived economic growth in
emerging markets pushes them beyond the
threshold level of $3,700 in annual household
income a point when people generally begin
to spend on discretionary goods. This figure
will continue to grow.
Greening business
More and more businesses are going out
of their way to show their green face to the
public. On the other hand, the vast majority
of businesses are only doing what they
absolutely need to do in order to comply with
regulations and reporting standards. Green is
still seen as a cost and not an investment. It is
just part of the license to operate.
Industry consolidation
The near collapse of the financial system
and the ensuing economic downturn could
accelerate this process. Stock prices and
company valuations are relatively low now
so acquisitions and mergers are cheap. As
economic recovery starts, companies will feel
confident enough to start new acquisitions.
The acquisition and mergers market is already
picking up.
25
Knowledge Process Outsourcing
Rise of the entreployee
Ubiquitous access to information
The KPO industry is projected to grow to

about $17 billion in 2013-14, with India to
account for approximately 59% of the global
KPO industry. This is a slower development
than was predicted in earlier years.
Whilst self-employment is unlikely to replace

employment as the dominant logic of
exchange in the labor market, the nature
of employment will continue to evolve.
Members of the new generation (Generation
Y) are also increasingly seeing themselves
as entrepreneurs and only secondarily as
employees working for a company. This group
also demands that work is both enjoyable and
inspiring.
Information is rapidly becoming a commodity.

Knowledge is becoming the new competitive
advantage. Consumers, wherever they live,
will increasingly have information about and
access to the same products and brands.
If information, for instance in the form
of content, is ubiquitous, it will be largely
valueless. Information is no longer scarce
and therefore it is not data, but knowledge
drawn from the clutter of information that will
become valuable.
Micro-segmentation of
marketplace
The customary one size fits all packages
are losing appeal as customers increasingly
cherry-pick offerings. Enterprises need to
develop more focused value packages to
reach smaller groups of customers sharing
more specialized clusters of preference,
focusing on a few areas.
Multi-currency monetary system

As investors and multinationals increase
their exposure to fast-growing emerging
economies, international demand for
developing economy currencies will grow,
making way for a global monetary system
with more than one dominant currency.
Establishing a multi-currency international
reserve currency system is seen by some as
an inevitable outcome of shifting economic
power, and for others as a way to maintain the
stability of the international financial system.
Peer-to-peer trading
People are increasingly buying and selling
directly to and from one another using online
trading systems (platforms). These platforms
allow individual members to complete
financial transactions by using an auction-style
process that lets members offer used or new
products and services for a specific amount or
on a best offer basis. Members are typically
rated by their risk level, based on transaction
history. Members can browse for other people
based on various demographic data.
26
Shifting centers of economic

activity
Venture philanthropy
There is significant potential to augment the
corporate responsibility agenda, providing
transparency and quantification of outcome
for philanthropic investments. Business ethics,
ethical offshoring and outsourcing are also
likely to be impacted.
Centers of economic activity will continue

to shift profoundly not just regionally, but
also globally. The world has embarked on a
massive realignment of economic activity as
a consequence of economic liberalization,
technological advances, capital market
developments and demographic shifts.
Shift to knowledge-intensive
industries
Products and processes are too easily
replicated; automation of simple tasks
and transactions is widespread. There is
increasing competition from emerging (and
low-cost) countries. Organizations will need to
differentiate themselves through knowledge
relationships with partners and customers.
Stakeholder power
Firms are increasingly influenced by the views
and concerns of stakeholders anyone that
their business impacts. This includes anyone
in the wider ecosystem that is impacted by
the company: customers, anyone in the value
chain and societies local to their business sites.
27
Innovation Radars

Political
Burning issues
Maturing issues
Emerging issues
Transparency &
Accountability
Government Activism
Lean Government
E-Democracy
Hacktivism
Affordability of Social Security & Services

EU Integration
Service-Oriented
Government
Protectionism
Green Politics
Emerging
Powers
Privacy of
Information
E-Politics
28
Affordability of social security

and services
As the size of the workforce declines, funding
for healthcare and pension assistance will
shrink. Trends compounding this problem are:
an erosion of the private sectors willingness
to deliver defined healthcare and retirement
benefits to the majority of their employees,
longer life expectancy and rising healthcare
costs.
E-democracy
As technology advances, and on the basis
that its accessibility grows in line with current
trends, the conduct of democratic politics
might increasingly be dominated by online
and other technology-enabled forms of
participation. It is also a natural extension of
Web 2.0 into the democratic arena.
E-politics
Media, research agencies, NGOs, pressure/
lobby groups and the political establishment
itself all have a role to play here. With almost
no restriction on the potential for the public to
involve themselves in political processes (for
example, the public could vote in immediate
parallel with every parliamentary vote), politics
has no choice but to engage in this way.
EU integration
Government activism
Enlargement creates larger markets and

a bigger and more varied labor force.
This growth creates need for political and
organizational reform of the European Union.
The so-called EU Constitution failed to be
ratified by enough member states. The
Reform Treaty or Treaty of Lisbon (2007) has
now finally been ratified by all member states
and entered into force in 2009. The current
debt and financial crisis in the southern
region, particularly Greece, has posed serious
challenges and doubts about the cohesion
and future of European integration. Some
argue that this crisis could mean the end of
the Eurozone (or at least a single one) while
other argue that this crisis will tend to push
integration forward.
Credit crisis, economic downturn, green

issues and health and safety are some of the
issues that seem to be leading to increased
government activism. Measures taken
by governments in reaction to the credit
crunch and economic downturn have really
brought the issue of government activism
or intervention to the forefront. We have
been witness to unprecedented government
interventions such as relief packages
for financial institutions, nationalizations,
economic stimulus packages and regulatory
intentions.
Emerging powers
Globalization is driving new dimensions of
power; its definition has extended far beyond
its military connotations to include economics,
resources, and technology. In terms of size,
speed and directional flow, the transfer of
global wealth and economic power is without
precedent in modern history. Globalization is
not only causing a relative power shift among
nation-states, but also an increase in relative
power of non-state actors such as businesses,
tribes, religious organizations and criminal
networks. A multi-polar international system is
slowly emerging.
Green politics
Green politics is increasingly emerging into
the mainstream, owing to the increasing
public consensus that we are seeing more
radical environmental shocks, crises in the
field of energy and resource supply, and a
growing awareness of the cost of inaction.
Hacktivism alternative
protestation
Hacktivism is said to be at least as old as
October 1989 when several US government
machines where penetrated by the antinuclear protestation worm. In the years
following there were notable attacks, such as
DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service), network
sit-ins, defacing and rerouting web pages,
stealing and leaking information (whistle
blowing most notably WikiLeaks). Recently it
is the scale, speed and ease in which attacks
can be organized that have really changed.
29
Lean government
Protectionism
Transparency and accountability
Whereas, in the past, discussions about

the size of government were split along
ideological lines, there now seems to be broad
consensus that government must become
smaller and less costly. Ideally, it would have
fewer rules, less bureaucracy and fewer public
servants. A leaner government body must
be more effective this cannot just be about
cutbacks. Consequences of the economic and
debt crisis, however, give this term a whole
new meaning.
Throughout history, wars and economic

depressions (or recessions) have led to
increases in protectionism, while peace and
prosperity have tended to encourage free
trade. The dire straits of the current world
economy make calls for protectionism,
therefore, attractive to many. During the
G20 Summits after the start of the crisis,
the attending countries pledged to refrain
from new protectionist measures. They have
done pretty well so far; global trade is not
threatened and is still rising.
The public demand for transparency and

accountability is not confined just to politics
and government; it is also increasingly central
in discussions related to problems in the
administrative, managerial, marketing, legal,
professional, security and moral arenas. The
credit crisis and ensuing economic crisis has
increased the need for transparency and
accountability as the lack of these in financial
institutions and products are seen as one of
its causes. Despite regulation of the financial
sector being in place prior to the crisis, it was
not enough to avert the problems. Tougher
regulation is likely.
Privacy of information
Public concerns over security and terror
threats, and the increasing dominance of
e-communications, provide the ideal climate
for mass surveillance, creating ongoing
concerns over personal privacy. But it is more
than just this: there is a general expanding
volume of (potentially) sensitive personal
information held, not only in government
and business databases, but also posted by
people themselves (on Facebook for instance).
This is driving public concern about privacy
protection.
30
Service-oriented government
The rules-driven, inflexible approach
to government is on its way out. The
improvement of service delivery will help
governments to regain trust and improve the
legitimacy of government. To achieve this, a
drive towards service integration, a focus on
electronic service delivery (e-government)
and multi-channeling, the promotion of
deregulation and an increase in the power
given to street level civil servants, is required.
31
Innovation Radars
2012+ CxO
Agenda Radar
Mainstream
Early adoption
Adolescent
Emerging
SoLoMo
Green IT
Business /
IT Alignment
Big Data
IT/OT Convergence
Social Media
Downing in Information Death of E-Mail
Video
Sustainablity
Open Innovation
Emerging Markets Growth
Smart Mobility
Web Science
Carbon Footprint
Business Agility
Corporate Governance and Risk
Cloud Services
Servitization
Risk of Disruption
Consumer IT
Customer Demands
and Intimacy
Lean
Offshoring
Everywhere
Changes
Traceability
and Visibility
Finding and Retaining Talent
Ageing Workforce
Mobile Workforce
Now
32
Legacy Risk
Management
Ideas Management
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Each trend has been analyzed from three perspectives: potential size of impact on your business; likely time to impact your business and maturity.
The radar diagram provides a pictorial view of our findings, allowing you to quickly understand how disruptive each trend is likely to be and the
actions you might consider taking. Polar co-ordinates have been used to depict the likely time to impact your business along with the potential size
of the impact. Colors are used to represent the maturity of each trend
``
Now-1 year: look today at how
solutions address need.
``
2-3 years: consider potential solutions
with maybe some pilots.
``
4+ years: understand now and
consider the potential implications and
how these could be addressed.
``
Transformational: likely to require
transformational changes within
organizations.
``
Emerging (Red): mainly expressed by
academia and a very small number of
specialized markets.
``
High: it will have high impact at work
on companies (process, products and
services) and the everyday lives of
users/consumers.
``
Adolescent (Amber): expressed
more widely by analysts and thoughtleaders.
``
Medium: it will impact on people and
organizations, enhancing companys
process services or the everyday lives
of users and consumers.
``
Low: more likely to require minor
improvements rather than radical
changes.
``
Early adopter (Green): seen more
widely in the markets. Organizations
starting to look for solutions.
``
Mainstream (White): there is a clear
need and many organizations are
implementing solutions.
33
Ageing workforce
Business IT alignment
Cloud services
Baby-boomers, those born between 1946

and 1964, are starting to retire, but for
many continuation of work after the official
retirement age will be a financial necessity.
Some industries will see a surge in the
number of older workers, with their workforce
spanning four generations.
Much progress has been made over the years

but, despite the progress, the rule of thumb
persistently remains that the majority of IT
enabled business change still fails to deliver
whats needed at the expected time and cost.
Solving the problem requires management
practice to move away from methodologies
that worked in the 1950s towards new
concepts that are emerging. There is
increasing recognition that best practice
management and IT techniques do not
address the complexities and opportunities
brought about by the inter-related and interconnected world and that more powerful is a
mix of best practice and next practice.
Cloud computing as a delivered service

is essentially the next generation of utility
computing, which has been providing
processing and storage on an on demand
basis for many years. The big players in this
game build infrastructure on an industrial
scale: there are often stories in the IT press
as to how many hundreds of millions they
are investing, or how many thousands of
servers they are hosting. The scale, combined
with standardization of hardware, software
and of operational processes, gives them the
economies of scale that they need to be able
to offer the flexible use of low cost shared
services provided over the Internet.
Carbon footprint
Consumerization of IT
In future, organizations may have to include in

their annual reports the impact their business
is having on climate change, how they are
working to reduce this impact and justification
when the impact is large. For most companies,
the focus is now on gathering information to
report against the rules and regulations. In
the future the requirement will be being able
to run the business whilst minimizing carbon
footprint.
When the iPad was launched, it was greeted

with enthusiasm by individuals but not in
the same way by many IT departments.
But pressure at boardroom level has forced
organizations to adopt them for amongst
other uses paperless board meetings, and
now analysts see tablet usage growing at
the expense of time spent using laptops and
Smartphones, with laptops being used more
for longer sessions.
Big Data
We are witnessing an explosive growth of
the information that all facets of humanity
(business, government, social, personal) are
creating and processing. This increasing
demand for processing and storage has a
profound impact for ICT, both technologically
and commercially: as the world gets more
connected with more online services
and more sensors, even more data will
be produced and collected. Traditional
infrastructures and software architectures are
being superseded.
Business agility through IT

transformation
Being large and agile requires higher and
higher integration between business and IT.
The business/IT interface has to be optimized
appropriately for the business to meet the
often contradictory drivers of innovation,
resilience and value for money. The IT enabled
transformation of a business requires IT
leadership and business leadership to work
together in an increasingly strong partnership.
34
Corporate governance and risk

Strong governance manages risks but can
also inhibit innovation, and the best balance
for both national finances and corporate
policy is continuously sought. The recent
financial crisis represented a failure of
corporate governance and risk management
-- it has produced a backlash about the need
for stronger government financial regulation,
which was previously deemphasized to allow
entrepreneurial growth.
Customer demands and intimacy
Finding and retaining talent
IT-OT convergence
Customers are increasingly looking for

personalized products and services that more
closely fulfill their requirements -- from the car
insurance of your dreams down to personal
greeting cards from Moonpig.com. More
sophisticated techniques are increasingly
used to understand customers and customer
groups, with corporate reputation managers
being hired to shoulder the burdensome
responsibility of managing online image.
Finding and retaining talent is an issue on

every CXO agenda - CFO, CIO, CTO, and
CEO - and, with the importance of emerging
markets, it is high on the agenda in every
region too. In the new economy, competition
is global, ideas are developed quickly and
cheaply, and people are willing to change
jobs often. Companies are focusing more on
Employee Engagement and wellbeing as well
as financial reward. This places factors such as
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), flexible
working, working environment, management
style, personal development, varied incentives
and total reward much higher up the agenda.
Convergence of manufacturing and office

IT, or OT and IT, is predicted to help reduce
costs and risk, and improve the quality of
decisions. The scattered application landscape
especially on the shop floor level will give way
to an integrated application landscape making
use of the strengths of PLM, MES and ERP
systems. This will happen on a global level.
The integration of the aforementioned three
value chains will decrease dramatically new
product introduction times by more than
50%, as well as reducing waste, improving
customer satisfaction, lowering risk and
improving the quality of decisions.
Green IT
Lean everywhere
Green IT has two major themes: Green

for IT where IT contributes to sustainable
development by for example a lower carbon
footprint and IT for Green where IT serves
green growth by enabling smarter, lower
consumption, greener, solutions.
Lean provides a way to make continuous

improvement through removal of waste
and synchronization of processes to provide
balanced throughput, matched to customer
demand. By applying lean techniques, the
company can optimize the use of resources
by removing barriers to efficiency that add no
value to the business, such as cumbersome
administrative procedures.
Drowning in information death

of e-mail
The level of e-mail (200 per day for some
users) causes a serious impact on the
performance of people who work less
effectively. The coming together of traditional
enterprise collaboration tools, Content
Management and social networking,
will create the next wave of disruptive
technologies and innovative business
processes that will ultimately change the
way enterprises communicate internally and
externally.
Emerging markets growth

A profound shift in global economic power
from West to East is under way with Western
economies playing a diminishing role in the
global economy over time, just as China, India
and other emerging markets, such as Brazil
and Russia, play an ever-increasing one.
Ideas management
Ideas management is key to ensuring that an
innovation program is successful. In order to
ensure that a wide range of ideas is generated,
wide publicity is required to ensure that
individuals are aware that ideas are being
sought on and that a process is in place to
ensure that all such ideas will be assessed.
As part of the open innovation trend, ideas
systems are being opened up to partners with
appropriate agreement about sharing the
benefits and risks.
Legacy risk management

Many organizations may have a hidden
time bomb ticking in the bowels of their
datacenters: aging equipment, fading
technologies with barely any knowledge left in
the organization and the market, applications
nobody really knows inside-out (possibly
without a vendor supporting them) and an
aging workforce that is still there knowing
how it all works, but will leave soon. There is
a serious risk to the businesses, if the wrong
system fails and takes too long to replace or
repair.
35
Risk management
Open innovation
Smart mobility
The recent financial crisis provides a

perfect example of what can go wrong. Its
ramifications have been far-reaching and
the lessons learned will be embedded in
risk management practices for years to
come. Companies in any industry will have
to develop and/or strengthen appropriate
mechanisms and tools for identifying,
modeling, and managing risk at all levels:
strategic, operational, and financial.
Innovation is increasingly high on the

corporate agenda, because the pressure is to
do more with less, and faster. Open innovation
addresses this problem as an innovation
model or paradigm that is not restricted to
the boundaries of an organization. Innovation
in the 21st century is increasingly open,
collaborative, multi-disciplinary and global.
The understanding of how to do this is
developing.
Smart mobility services enabled by ContextAware Computing will anticipate and react
to the needs of users, providing relevant,
useful information to allow them to make
better-informed decisions. These services
will supersede the existing smartphone
applications and revolutionize how providers
interact with consumers, organizations with
employees, governments with employees and
people with their social networks.
Mobile workforce
Risk of disruption
Social media
Increasingly, the workforce is working away

from the office, whether on the road visiting
clients and partners or simply reducing the
amount of travel and working remotely.
Mobile working on a wide range of devices
is increasingly an integral part of how IT
functionality is being opened up to workers,
and all IT functionality increasingly needs
to be accessible remotely and from mobile
devices.
In an ever-changing world, the risk of

disruption is becoming greater as we see
more threats from climate change, terrorism
and even pandemics. Organizations cannot
expect to predict these but can have plans in
place to deal with the consequences.
In business a new way of working is emerging

using new collaborative tools based on
social media technology to make it easier
to work together and speed up finding the
right information by immediately enabling
people to locate the right people and the
right knowledge. These tools enable the
organization to work not just along formal
lines, but also along the cross boundary and
informal lines, which are essential to deliver
the agility needed to meet geographic,
product and market changes. The enabling
technologies were developed in the 2000s,
and moved into general society through new
usages. They are now adopted and used in
personal lives (Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn,
for example).
Offshoring changes
The cost of offshoring to countries such as
India and China is increasing as the workforce
increases its skills and broadens its portfolio
to include delivery. This requires a skilled
workforce, particularly in the field of research.
Offshoring nearer home to an alternative,
less expensive country (sometimes called
nearshoring) gives some of the benefits of
offshoring, such as reduced costs, but without
some of the cultural and time zone barriers
that can be experienced when offshoring
further afield.
36
Servitization
The phenomenon servitization will transform
entire product industries from technologypush and product oriented to customer-pull
and service oriented. The transformation
is organization-wide on all transformation
dimensions: Business model, Key Performance
Indicators, Organization and Governance,
Processes and Services, People and Culture,
and Information Management.
SoLoMo
SoLoMo, the use of social media to market
Locally to Mobile people, is currently a strong
trend in the Silicon Valley. It usually requires a
complete revisit of the marketing strategy. Its
not merely squashing a website into a mobile,
nor is it copy/paste of all features of the
website into a native app.
Sustainability
Video
Web science
Due to a multitude of economic, social and

environmental drivers, it is now clear that the
business context is transforming quickly with
sustainability central to the agenda. Business
and IT transformation is now an imperative for
all businesses wishing to survive over the next
5 years -- sustainability is a core component of
that transformation.
Video will become the defacto means of

communication, collaboration and knowledge
dissemination. This is causing a major change
in ways of working and will have a similarly big
impact on the need for companies to have a
strategy for its use, storage and management.
For an enterprise, there will be the challenges
and opportunities of both managing and
distributing stored content and using live
video based tools such as conferencing,
telepresence and collaboration.
Making the most of the Web is evolving

into requires more than technical skill- it
also requires sociology and psychology.
Tim Berners-Lee, MIT and the University of
Southampton are running new doctorates in
what they term Web Science. They believe
web scientists will become important business
figures and entrepreneurs.
Traceability and visibility

As workers become more mobile, and
customers want to ensure the safety and
origin of products, traceability will be key for
products from constituents to consumer and
personnel movements and behaviors.
37
Innovation Radars
2012+ Enabling Information

Technologies Radar
AI Enhanced Robots
Mainstream
Early adoption
Adolescent
Nanocomputers
Context Broker
Emerging
Miniturized Power
Wireless Power
Machine-to-Machine
Semantic Data
Integration
Computer Vision
Serious Gaming
Machine Learning
Mobile Operating
Sensor Networks
Systems
4G
Natural Language
Processing
Speech Technologies
Privacy Enhancing
Semantic Web
Semantic Search
Technologies
Engines
Virtual Retinal
Network Intelligence
Displays
Mesh Networks
Mobile Payments
Distributed Social
Universal
Multi-Touch
Big Data Stacks
Networks
Translators
Data Visualization
NoSQL
Tablet
Biometrics
Physical Unclonable
Computing
Augmented
Reality
NFC
Functions
3D Printing
Plastics Transistors
Business Process
Avatars
Management Systems
Cloud Orchestration
3D LBS & GIS
Holographic
E-Paper
Data Storage
Web-Based
Open Source
Peer-to-Peer
Hardware
Open Source Software
RFID
Now
38
3D Displays
Mashups
Grid
IPv6
Computing
Graphical Codes
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Each trend has been analyzed from three perspectives: potential size of impact on your business; likely time to impact your business and maturity.
The radar diagram provides a pictorial view of our findings, allowing you to quickly understand how disruptive each trend is likely to be and the
actions you might consider taking. Polar co-ordinates have been used to depict the likely time to impact your business along with the potential size
of the impact. Colors are used to represent the maturity of each trend.
``
Now-1 year: look today at how
solutions address need.
``
2-3 years: consider potential solutions
with maybe some pilots.
``
4+ years: understand now and
consider the potential implications and
how these could be addressed.
``
Transformational: likely to require
transformation changes within
organizations.
``
Emerging (Red): mainly expressed by
academia and a very small number of
specialized markets.
``
High: it will have high impact at work
on companies (process, products and
services) and people walk of live as
user / consumer.
``
Adolescent (Amber): expressed
more widely by analysts and thoughtleaders.
``
Medium: it will impact people and
organizations, enhancing their
processes and services, or affecting
users and consumers lives.
``
Low: more likely to require minor
improvements rather than radical
changes.
``
Early adopter (Green): seen more
widely by clients markets. Clients
starting to look for solutions.
``
Mainstream (White): there is a
clear need and many clients are
implementing solutions.
39
3D location-based services
and geographical information
systems (3D LBS & GIS)
visual scene and the screen displays this view

with supplemental information computed or
retrieved by the augmented reality engine.
3D GIS and 3D LBS are the next generation

of GIS and LBS, taking the third dimension
into account. Taken separately, traditional LBS
technologies do not yet provide a sufficient
level of accuracy on the third dimension, but
their combination with 3D models (with a city
or building, for example) could bring sufficient
value to the end-user.
Avatars
3D printing
The Internet has given rise to global

companies such as Amazon, Facebook,
Google or Twitter. They need to manage data
on a massive scale and to find ways to use it
beyond its original means. Strong open source
foundations have enabled them to instigate
solutions, such as NoSQL, to manage and
process big data.
3D printing superposes layers of material,

often a melted polymer, with each layer being
built using techniques similar to inkjet printing.
The drop in price of 3D printers, the apparition
of open hardware initiatives and the general
Do It Yourself movement have popularized
this technology and spread it in the open
source communities. CAD object design
libraries are starting to appear, allowing people
to share and print their own objects at home.
4G wireless communication
A 4G wireless system will be able to provide a
comprehensive IP solution where voice, data
and streamed multimedia can be given to
users on an anytime, anywhere basis and at
higher data rates than previous generations.
It is a fully IP-based, integrated system
capable of providing high speeds indoors
and outdoors, with premium quality and high
security.
Augmented reality
A users perception of the world is
supplemented with relevant information
via a device (headset or display). The
superimposed information usually includes
graphics, but could also be audio or other
sensory information such as smell. Simpler
set-ups also exist based, for instance, on
smartphones. The camera is used to capture a
40
Avatars and virtual assistants are the

electronic equivalents of real-world reception
desk staff, designed to help users on
administrative tasks and to locate and browse
information in a friendly, yet effective, way.
Big Data processing
Business Process Management

Systems
Computer vision
Computer systems that are able to gather
information from images and become artificial
vision systems implemented in software and/
or hardware. This field is relatively young from
an industrial point of view, but its academic
background is broad and strong. There are,
however, some more mainstream applications
available where computer vision is being
applied to resolve specific problems, with
solutions available from niche suppliers.
Context broker
Context brokers collect and store context data,
deduce context and trigger context actions.
They are critical to the delivery of contextenriched services, which use information
about a person or object to proactively
anticipate the users need and serve up the
most appropriate content, product or service.
Data visualization
BPMS can be seen as the next step after

ERP. They can handle complex processes:
modeling them, changing them, then
executing them as designed. An increased
ability to model, manage and execute
business rules will bring more flexibility.
Cloud orchestration
Cloud orchestration relates to the connectivity
of IT and business process levels between
cloud environments. As cloud emerges as a
competitive sourcing strategy (in comparison
to having your own or outsourced IT
environment), a demand is clearly arising
for the integration of cloud environments to
create an end-to-end managed landscape of
cloud-based functions.
Data visualization provides meaningful

information about a dataset by creating
a graphical representation of it. It can be
interactive. Some BI products include
advanced data visualization capabilities. Opensource data visualization tools are progressing
quickly, but are often low level and much
less user-friendly. The field could evolve
significantly with other advances in humancomputer interfaces.
Distributed social networks

Social network initiatives are developing social
networking platforms that could be operated
in a federated and distributed mode. This
might disrupt integrated social network actors,
such as Facebook. In the meantime, standard
approaches for social networking are gaining
maturity.
E-paper
Multi-touch user interface
NoSQL
E-paper is a display technology that requires

no backlight and reflects light in almost the
same way as ordinary paper, generally using
an electrophotoretic approach. The first color
e-paper displays have just been announced.
Multi-touch user interfaces (MTUI) can

recognize many gestures from multiple places
on a device simultaneously, allowing several
users to interact with an application at the
same time or one user to interact at different
points with multiple inputs. Drives user
interface changes, which in turn will enable
new usages and needs: for example for faceto-face-plus-computer interactions.
NoSQL, which stands for Not Only SQL,

refers to a trend in the field of database
management systems that aims to give up
the classical relational model. Until recently,
only a handful of players had performance
requirements that relational database could
not meet. However, with the raise of Web
2.0, and possibly the internet of things and
context aware computing in a near future,
the requirement for massive data storage is
evolving and will involve a growing number of
companies and organizations.
Machine-to-Machine
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technologies
link machines to an information system,
generally to automate existing humanlyperformed operations (such as meter reading)
or to enable new services based on remote
connected devices (for instance e-health).
Billions of objects, such as smart meters or
automotive on-board units, are expected to be
connected within the next decade.
Mesh networks
A decentralized and robust model where each
node has possibly a different owner. Ad-hoc
routing increases stability in the event of node
failure or changing conditions. Mobile mesh
networks are relatively cheap to set up and
maintain.
Mobile operating systems

A mobile operating system (mobile OS) is
specifically designed to control a mobile
device, such as a smartphone or a tablet. As
mobile devices become more powerful and
start predating some usage segments of
personal computers, the operating systems
market could be disrupted and enter a period
of strong fragmentation.
Mobile payments
In the last two years there has been another
boost in investigation and development in
this area. The existing payment business is
mostly card based, but with the introduction
of powerful mobile devices it is possible
to improve the user experience and the
efficiency of the payment process; thus,
payments could move from the card-based
approach to a device-based one.
Natural-language processing
Natural-language processing (NLP) is the
automatic ability to understand text or audio
speech data and extract valuable information
from it. Early adopters are finding significant
productivity improvements in concrete
solutions: mostly in healthcare sector, where
these technologies have being used over the
last twenty years.
Near Field Communication

Near Field Communication (NFC) allows
devices such as mobile phones to
communicate wirelessly over a very short
distance and perform tag or card reading,
card emulation and device-to-device data
exchange. Smartphones significantly increase
the potential of NFC by enabling easy
development of mobile applications using
NFC whilst leveraging interactive capabilities
and network access of the phone.
Network intelligence
Network intelligence aims to address the need
for information visibility and for understanding
of real-time traffic. The explosion in volume of
data exchanged on IP networks is threatening
their technical and economical balance.
Network Intelligence provides context to the
recognized traffic by extracting metadata
(who/what/where/when) in real-time.
Privacy enhancing technologies

The career and personal life of internet users
could be severely impacted if they are not
cautious with the personal data they (or
relatives) make available -- through posts and
multimedia content sharing, for instance.
Privacy enhancing technologies (PET) aim
to address this concern by controlling the
disclosure of data. End-user awareness is
growing, mainly because of personal data
leaks relating to social media. At the same
time, attitudes are changing and there is a
decreasing level of privacy concern, illustrated
by a generational comparison between
parents and transparents.
Semantic data integration

Semantic data integration is an umbrella term
for combining heterogeneous data using
open standards and semantic technologies:
employing triplestores and graph-like data
representation (RDF), following linked data
approach and using expressive SPARQL
language for data retrieving. Existing and
legacy SQL-based solutions are already
being turned into a semantic data cloud
and numerous methods are under
development. Standardization efforts for such
transformations (RDB2RDF) are enabling the
retrieval of more valuable information out of
the existing data maze by combining it with
other data sources.
41
Semantic search engines
Speech technologies
Web-based peer-to-peer
Semantic search is based on the notion of

improving search engines by making the
system aware of the meaning (semantics) of
both the searcher query and the content of
the searchable data. Many enterprise search
engines advertise themselves as semantic
search engines. The use of semantics to
improve search efficiency, mainly through
natural language processing (NLP) techniques,
is a clear trend in the field. Some companies
are providing, to a limited extent, semantic
search engines on the Web. These engines are
also heavily based on NLP.
The concept of machines recognizing and

understanding human speech has been
a goal for many years. Applications in the
human-computer interaction field are
greatly enhanced through speech and voice
processing technologies. New applications,
such as speech analytics in contact centers,
searching, automatic translators and
automatic indexing capabilities in audio and
multimedia content, all use some basic speech
processing technologies. The technology is
now mature, robust and entering mainstream
applications.
Peer-to-peer (P2P) network technology

involves creating overlays on top of
established networks. Overlays follow
alternative metrics and addressing schemes to
adapt the search for shared resources among
the connected peers. Few applications already
take advantage of the direct communication
capabilities in the browser as many web
application developers are not familiar with
the concept of P2P communications. The use
of these technologies is expected to grow
significantly in a near future.
Sensor networks
Universal translators
A generalized term for spatially distributed

devices with at least one sensor, and able
to detect and monitor events. Each has a
transceiver, controller and power source. Data
can be passed between them, across the
wireless network and back to the monitor.
Networks need to be self-managing and able
to auto-reroute. They may include further
capabilities, such as GPS and internet access.
Although far from perfect, current universal

translators are already delivering promising
results. Statistical methods, based on huge
multi-lingual corpora and continuously
enriched by user feedback, have driven
machine translators to reasonably good
results on not too challenging cases. Results
are usually better when the domain is
specialized.
Serious gaming
Virtual retinal display
Any games that do not have entertainement,

enjoyment or fun as their primary purpose.
Serious gaming builds on simulation (to train
by practice) and gamification.
Virtual Retinal Display (VRD) entails

broadcasting images directly onto the retina
of the human eye. Lasers and LEDs are used
to project the image, with horizontal and
vertical scanners behaving in much the same
way as in televisions to selectively allow colors
through. To the user, images and information
will appear as if floating in front of the eye. So
far it has successfully been tested in standard
definition; high definition (HD) now seems
within reach.
42
Wireless power
Wireless power aims at transferring electric
energy to devices without the use of electric
cords. While most of the focus has been on
creating better batteries, some devices, such
as electric toothbrushes, smartphones and
computer mice, can already be powered
wirelessly. Induction is currently the most
used method; it is most effective over short
ranges. Far field power beaming, based on
radio, microwaves or laser, allows much longer
range, possibly over several kilometers.
43
Telecom, Media
& Technology
Market View
44
45
Telecom
Business Imperatives
Ecosystems: drive, do not be
driven
Last decades attempts by telcos to safeguard
their exclusive ownership of the customer
relationship by spanning the full services
spectrum from traditional communication,
broadband access, device sales, media
content production and gaming to payment,
banking and web communities only rarely
led to a sustainable return. The defensive
reflex of existing market players in these
domains, and telcos missing competencies
outside of their traditional footprint, led to a
first rebound.
Nonetheless, telcos need to strengthen their
intermediary role in the digital value chain in
order to actively participate in the evolution
of new business models. They need to rethink partnership models, which might give
them less control over the ultimate customer
relationship, but enable them to accelerate
demand for their core communication
services. We expect strategic alliances with
established brands in retail, media and
entertainment, information technologies,
finance and automotive to be key success
factors in ensuring a prosperous future for
todays telecom providers.
At the same time, telecom operators need
to engage more strongly in joint initiatives
themselves, such as the Wholesale Application
Community (WAC), in order to better defend
their interests in the web based economy.
Goals, such as the introduction of a payment
46
mode for the vast transport capacity provided

by telcos for the extensive transmission
of video content, for example, can only be
achieved if major telecom players manage to
bond together in a global movement.
Finally, telecom service providers should
spend a serious part of their financial reserves
on innovation work in order to explore new
business models and test the ground for value
add solutions in the marketplace. Externalized
speedboat entities, such as spin-offs and
joint ventures, will be best suited to compete
in the highly dynamic environment of open
innovation.
Business value: focus on network

excellence
In the uncertain waters of new global
competition and emerging business models
there is one fixed point on the compass of
every network operator: its basic bit pipe
carrier services. It is the one most sizable
item on the balance sheet and the core,
indisputable value a telco delivers to the rest
of world; thus, the importance of network
capacity and service quality will grow in
line with the increasing dependency that
economies, governments and our social lives
have on communication.
service differentiators. On the path to

increasing commoditization of the bit pipe,
intelligent management of the latter will be
of paramount importance for sustaining
profitability and creating competitive
advantage. Networks need to be optimized to
efficiently handle the ever growing volumes
of video and peer-to-peer streaming through
intelligent content distribution, encoding
technologies, or data offloading strategies.
Equally, network policy and service level
management needs to enable better, real-time
control over client specific service delivery
parameters. In the past, the enterprise and
wholesale customers have been the main
consumers of such service differentiation,
but consumer markets will follow with their
growing demand. Virtual reality applications,
3D and HD video, IP-TV, online games with
demanding real-time requirements, and
professional applications delivered to zeroclient desktops from the Cloud, will also create
the business case for monetizing differentiated
service levels in that market segment.
Network carriers need to explore next

generation technologies, not only to increase
capacity and reliability, but also to implement
strategies to turn technical features and
capabilities into flexibly productizable
Monetization: develop new

models for core communication
services
The challenge of the monetization of
communication services is a totally different
when you look at emerging, evolving
and saturated markets. While emerging
markets are characterized by high demand
and promising growth potential, it is the
wallet size of the average customer that
requires attention when launching products,
calculating subsidies and offering payment
schemes. On the opposite side, saturated
markets in developed geographies feature
extreme competition, high customer
expectations and consumer friendly
regulation. For the latter, we see monetization
opportunities in number of directions:
``
Tiered volume based data tariff schemes:
As data usage soars, due to rich content,
video, peer-to-peer communication
and Web-TV, and as telcos rarely
receive payments from such third party
applications, it is a natural for them to ask
for a fair price-for-service scheme. This is
nothing new to the industry, but should
be re-evaluated in order to establish a new
attitude to service value and differentiation
after a few years of all you can eat
consumer mentality.
``
Service levels match client usage
profile: Service availability, latency
and jitter, average capacity or peak
performance guarantees and security
levels are service features that matter to
customers and should be seen as niche
sources of revenues. Price elasticity and
level of adoption will differ for customer

segments and implementation costs will
need to be relative. To manage the latter,
communication providers need to enforce
their interest regarding SLA management
and drive its standardization in industry
organizations, such as TMF or GSMA.
``
Anything connected communication
services: Enhanced connectivity,
almost ubiquitous mobility, intelligent
and autonomous power supply and the
inevitable move to IPv6 are all building
the momentum for the transition into
an anything connected world. The
requirements for the underlying machineto-machine communications are going to
differ greatly: smart electricity metering
and health surveillance will have opposing
needs in terms of availability, mobility
and bandwidth. Telcos that manage to
productize adequate service types will reap
the fruits of early market entry.
``
Ubiquitous all-in digital content delivery:
A number of digital goods delivered by
content providers over third party mobile
networks place the consumer at risk of
additional charges. Flat rates are not the
only answer. Instead, sending party pays,
or subscription based pricing schemes that
include any additional charges, could be
implemented by cooperation between the
digital content provider and the network
operator. Ultimately, such models will help
secure a telcos revenue share with over the
top (OTT) services.
Privacy: strengthen your brands

trustworthiness
Our social media engagement, online
commerce, mobile payments, apps usage,
and growing number of sensors (monitoring
our location, direction, speed, time, sporting
activities, environmental temperature
and more) leave long trails in the digital
cyberspace. Our usage patterns, buying
preferences and habits are of high interest to
commerce and advertisement companies,
which turn such knowledge into better
placed, more relevant infotainment and
buying suggestions. Moreover, in an anything
connected world, personal digital assistants
will provide help in search and discovery,
co-ordination and scheduling, planning and
control in a variety of private and work life
situations.
The value of a personalized digital
environment is increasingly being appreciated
by users. As a consequence, we will see
peoples perception about data privacy very
much evolving along the lines of the value
its mere exposure creates. In the future, we
expect users to share privacy information
far beyond todays boundaries, if they obtain
corresponding value in return. At the same
time, they are going to become much
more discriminative about the brands and
institutions they trust. Their loyalty will be
significantly determined by the way their
private data is being used and protected; thus,
the sensitive management of this relationship
should be at the top of companies priority list
for the next few years.
47
Irrespective of the value that enterprises offer

in return for private data, stringent protection
against fraudulent use by third parties remains
a basic condition for a trustful brand. High
standards of data privacy and IT security
management have to be established and kept
at all times by telcos so as not to put this vital
asset at risk.
Agility: avoid inflexible BSS/OSS

slow your pace
Every telcos CIO is familiar with the easy
argument that enterprise IT is constantly
behind schedule. It is the Business and
Operations Support Systems (BSS/OSS)
which are the usual suspects. Your company
should be able to respond quickly to the latest
surprise move of the competition, and the
newest genius of corporate marketing should
not need months to bring new products to full
commercial use.
The regime of severe cost control of the last

few years has justified a reduced pace of IT
innovation at US and European telcos, but
these times are over now. The CIOs question
is not about the if, but rather about the which
first:
``
Technological refresh projects need to be
undertaken to catch-up with state of the
art IT.
``
Innovation pressures for new services,
partnership schemes and wholesale
arrangements need to be accounted for in
the BSS/OSS stack.
``
The promise of cost optimizations made
by IT virtualization, new enterprise desktop
solutions, and cloud based services cannot
be ignored.
``
Completely new domains of business, such
as e-health, smart grid, app stores, cloud
offerings, connected home, and related
partner ecosystems need to be enabled.
At current stage, IT is in cache-up mode and
needs executive attention and smart budget
allocation, combined with reliable, powerful
partners to execute it.
48
Telecom
Business Trends
Since its deep financial crisis in 2008/2009,
the world has witnessed a fragile and uneven
recovery with major developed economies
only slowly increasing their pace of growth.
The prospects for 2012 indicate a further slowdown of this trend. Nevertheless, developing
economies are expected to still hold a healthy
level of growth and offer sound business
potential for the telecommunication industry.
In a macroeconomic context, such as this,
we expect to see frontier economies (China,
India and Brazil should not be called emerging
anymore) clearly drive global telecoms market
growth. Saturated markets will continue to
struggle with the dragging average revenue
per user (ARPU) levels of a slowly increasing
customer base.
Web giants will drive the digital

evolution and help telecom
operators become stronger
Undoubtedly, the buzz around Google, Apple,
Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and the like will
continue to flood the industry headlines
over the next years. Disruptive innovators
will spark further new developments in the
digital world and expand its footprint in our
private and professional lives. New habits of
interpersonal communication, a new definition
of social competence, a growing gamization,
and the need for always being in touch, from
anywhere: all this and more creates excellent
revenue opportunities for the advertisement
and digital merchandise industry. Clearly,
companies engaged in this space are the new
age winners.
Despite telecom service providers still

struggling to place their stakes in this field of
play, such developments are excellent news to
them because the digital business and lifestyle
can only be kept alive on the back of reliable
telecom network operators. Data transport
and connectivity businesses are on their way
to becoming a utility service: commoditized,
but highly critical to the public and the global
economy. To keep their positions, telcos are
going to need to make heavy investments
into new infrastructure technologies, and seek
expansion into frontier markets. The addition
of national regulatory incentives is expected
to be a catalyst for this process.
No winner to be expected (yet) in

the race for dominance over the
connected home
select and display high quality media content

from a variety of sources in accordance with
our personal preference profile.
Broadband providers will be exploring
ways to bridge the gap between the simple
internet router and a multifunctional media
and entertainment hub: a gap that makes
the difference between a commodity bit
pipe provider and a digital lifestyle company.
Beyond that, the digital home hub has the
potential to play a key role in the future
connected home, supporting energy and
security management solutions, medical
surveillance and assisted living services. We
expect telcos to engage more intensely in
these domains, with dedicated business units
and innovative market approaches.
While mobility is being talked about on a

worldwide scale, peoples homes remain
a strategic battlefield for a share of the
consumers attention. The gaming industry
will continue to place new generation
consoles into the center of the gamers
entertainment experience and foster the
adoption of ever new human-to-machine
interfaces, like Kinetic or Wii U. Strong online
gamer communities will readily adopt new
services like video and audio calls (is Microsoft
going to include Skype into its next Xbox?),
instant messaging, blogging and voting, and
also video-on-demand, catch-up TV, HD and
3D TV on their games consoles. Equally, PayTV companies are going to offer new set-topboxes with the connectivity and intelligence to
49
The mobile revolution continues

Peoples increasing mobility has been one of
the main trends over the past decades and
consequently is nothing new; however, the
way that intelligent devices will further ease
and drive our mobility is still in its infancy. Ever
smarter phones and easier computers are
going to further converge to a new device
category: the smart mobile. Telephony is
just one of many functions that it provides;
with number crunching not one of its main
features either.
Today smart mobiles already encompass
a voice and video phone, text messenger,
camera, music and multimedia player, games
console, navigation system, video beamer,
remote control, personal information manager,
social communities and enterprise application
clients, plus a few more features, all under
one umbrella. Although specialized devices
provide higher performance, one simple
argument makes the case for the smart
mobile: the best camera is the one that you
are carrying with you whenever it is needed!
Next we expect to see increasing integration
and automation of all these features, into a
more intelligent personal assistant concept.
Further, new sensors are going to enrich
the context-awareness of the smart mobile.
With an enhanced ability to set personal
preferences and define simple work
instructions (content filters, alarms for friends
in the neighborhood, blacklisting of certain
brands advertisements, automatic searches
for product offers, to name a few) and a tighter
coupling with our work environment, we are
going to increase the spectrum of tasks our
digital assistant will be able to execute on our
behalf.
The convenience factor is going to further
drive demand for lighter, more flexible and
durable mobiles, so that in a few years
mobile device sales will have outpaced
50
stationary PCs. Substantial efforts will be

spent on the development of high-capacity
batteries, the standardization of inductionbased, wireless charging solutions and the
active energy management of the mobile
device. Apps revenues will continue to soar
irrespective of the technology they are
implemented in. Tablets, extended by an
optional keyboard, placed into a virtualized,
zero-client IT environment and guarded by
maturing security appliances, will enable the
proliferation of the Bring Your Own Device
(BYOD) concept into the business context.
Ultimately, smart mobiles are going to
transform into a personalized user interface
for future smart clouds.
and priorities in the Web. The adoption of

social media marketing and monitoring, as
well as community based sales and service,
will accelerate substantially with private
businesses leading the way. Furthermore,
non-profit and governmental organizations
are going to join the trend to improve their
dialogue with their primary target groups.
Telcos will become more serious

about their cloud ambitions
Social competence is being

newly defined
Do statements like As of today I have 1322
friends! or My influence rating has increased
by 37% since last month. sound familiar to
you? These are not taken from a status call of
a politicians pre-election campaign, but are
rather usual and accepted measures of the
web natives new social competence. Always
in touch, informed of the latest community
news in real-time, following brands and friends
on Twitter, writing blogs and producing own
videos on YouTube: this is what millions
associate today with the term social
competence. The new Social is not confined
by geographical boundaries, is always on, nondiscriminative and easy to use. It offers quick
paths to self-exploration and provides a great
stage for self-expression. Without any doubt,
social communities will continue to thrive.
We expect to see telecom service providers

adopt the Cloud business as a market
expansion priority. Big market players like
AT&T, NTT Communications, Deutsche
Telekom, BT and France Telecom-Orange,
along with smaller enterprise solutions
providers, have built up a critical mass of IT
related business over the last decade. The
convergence of mobile, fixed and internet
providers operations and the ever growing
IT-zation of telecom technologies as a whole,
strengthen the case for telcos strategic
expansion into IT related business.
At present, telcos offer a portfolio of enterprise
and corporate services ranging from desktop
services to managed storage and data centers
operations. For the next step they will need to
respond to the fast march of Google, Amazon,
Dropbox and the like, who are conquering the
consumer customer base with sticky cloud
based services that are easy to use, globally
accessible, highly available and beyond all -inexpensive. This is why we expect to witness
some acquisitions of mid-sized IT players by
telecom companies in the near future.
As a new quality, communication in the digital

space has two important characteristics:
Firstly, it provides easy access to huge
audiences all over the world; and secondly,
it is being constantly documented in lasting,
digital formats. By means of semantic search
and data mining, valuable knowledge is
being derived about sentiments, trends
Verticalized businesses will

mature and grow
Cost optimization strategies to

enter the next level
Following this line of thought, telcos will

continue to deepen their competence in
selected industries too. Over that past years,
they have been developing communicationcentric solutions, which (in one way or the
other) can be considered adapted for the
industry-specific needs of their customers.
In particular, enormous corporations and
multi-national enterprises with their huge
communication budgets and very own
requirements have kept telcos motivation
for investment in more complex, customized
offerings alive. Dedicated business units for
in-car machine-to-machine communication
(automotive), field force mobility solutions
(insurance, transport, service industries), smart
networks (utilities) and more, have gained
the momentum that is needed to make the
next step into verticalization: the enablement
and support of industry specific business
transactions, applications and, ultimately,
processes.
Before significant network investments and

the need for favorable negotiation positions
with their technology vendors, Network
Operators will increasingly look for joint
initiatives to derive synergies by sourcing on a
bigger scale. Beyond significant cost savings
in the procurement of technological solutions,
operators will have a stronger influence on the
standardization and innovation developments
being undertaken by the infrastructure
vendors camp. First steps made by Deutsche
Telekom and France Telecom-Orange with
EverythingEverywhere in the UK, and their
announced procurement joint venture for
procurement of customer and network
equipment, service platforms and IT, will be
followed by other players in the industry.
Further down the road we expect to see telcos
also join existing industrial alliances for the
procurement of non-technology goods and
services.
We will see telco providers more actively

shape the way communications are being
integrated into businesses. They will engage
in strategic partnerships with industry giants,
sign cooperation agreements with service
companies and pilot projects with R&D or
academic participation in order to ease the
adoption of communication services by
better serving the specific demands of the
corresponding businesses. At the top of the
agenda we will see themes, such as Assisted
Living, The Connected Home, Smart Cities and
Mobile Learning. Telcos with a strong IT arm
will be tempted to offer cloud based industry
solutions, as along with related support and
service and to allow them to step into this new
field of competition.
We expect mobile carriers to lobby against

the regulation of network neutrality in order
to protect running revenues as long as
possible, but at the same time gear up for
better differentiation on network excellence,
service levels implementation and dynamic
bandwidth management.
Net neutrality regulation to put

confines on mobile carriers
monetization options
By mid-2011 only two countries worldwide had
passed net neutrality protection laws, but we
expect the public debate to accelerate and
lead to the regulation of a number of further
markets. While a non-discriminative regime
for data being transported over the carriers
mobile broadband highways seems a natural
choice, it reduces the options of a telco for
tariff differentiation on content types. Instant
messengers and social networks featuring
voice and video communication are going to
increasingly cannibalize the mobile carriers
voice and SMS traffic at the price of further
data volumes growth.
51
Telecom
Business Impact of Emerging
Technologies and Solutions
TRANSFO
RMA
TIO
NA
L
Nanocomputers
Sensor Networks
Wireless Power
Privacy Enhancing
Technologies
Bring Your Own Device
4G Wireless
Communication
Tablet Computing
Social Networks
Web-Based Peer-to-Peer
Now
52
Mesh Networks
Cloud Orchestration
Grid Computing
EIM Platforms
Biometrics
IPv6
Multi-Touch Interfaces
3D Location-Based Services
and Geographical
Information Systems
Year 1
Year 2
LOW
Mobile Payments
Emerging
Natural Language
Speech and Voice
Processing Technologies Processing
Social Network Analysis (SNA)
Near Field
Communications
In-App Payments
Adolescent
IG BU
H
Machine-to-Machine
Mobile Operating
Systems
Early adoption
AL
IUM
CT
PA MED
IM
SS
NE
SI
Highly Miniaturized
Power Generators
Mainstream
SE
RV
IC
H E
Year 3
Year 4
Smart mobile
New mobile devices, such as Tablet
Computers, are providing more user-interface
experiences through enhanced technologies,
such as multi-touch interfaces and highdefinition virtual retina displays (VRD).
Tablets take advantage of the gap between
smartphones and laptops that was not really
filled by netbooks.
Second Screens change the media
consumption experience and even the
workplace. Any mobile device with wireless
connectivity can be used by a worker in
addition to the corporate device. Bring Your
Own Device (BYOD) will potentially change
the workplace substantially. Wireless Power
concepts will certainly push the usage of
mobile devices. Wireless power aims at
transferring electric energy to devices without
the use of electric cords. Induction is currently
the most used method.
This new market is expected to move quickly,
with strong innovative competition, similar to
that of the smartphone market. Multi-Touch
User Interfaces (MTUI) can recognize many
gestures from multiple places on a device
simultaneously, allowing several users to
interact with an application at the same time,
or one user to interact at different points with
multiple inputs. This in turn will enable new
usages and needs, for example for face-toface-plus-computer interactions.
The flow of data from tablets will be extremely

challenging (the video usage is much bigger
than on smartphones). Videoconferencing,
chatting and social networking on the move
will create a data traffic that will be challenging
for mobile infrastructures. On the other
hand, the new user experience also creates
a significant market for mobile apps. Mobile
apps are becoming an inherent part of many
software solutions today. Telcos must look
how to address the demands these pose and
how to use apps to create better value. Today
we are in a situation where mobile apps and
their associated app stores potentially leave
operators out of the content value chain. A
large proportion of the revenue today goes to
the app store owner.
Tablets are already starting to generate their
own business models (newsstands, book
stores ) and to reinforce emerging ones
(music streaming, In-App Payments, personal
data in the Cloud ). The main triggers are the
overall increase in competition and rivalry and
the overlap of the partly merging telco and
media markets.
A Mobile Operating System (mobile
OS) is specifically designed to control a
mobile device, such as a smartphone or
a tablet. As mobile devices become more
powerful and start predating some usage
segments of personal computers, the mobile
OS market could be disrupted and enter
a period of strong fragmentation. At this

time of increasing usage and importance
of mobile devices, communication service
providers need to make sure that they are
on the platforms with the highest demand. In
addition they have to differentiate themselves
through unique mobile devices.
3D Location-Based Services and
Geographical Information Systems in
combination will increasingly enhance
location based services. Geographical
information systems (GIS) are systems
capable of capturing, storing, analyzing and
displaying information referenced according
to its geographical location. Location-based
services (LBS) take advantage of a users
geographical position to deliver contextualized
information or services. 3D GIS and 3D LBS
are the next generation of GIS and LBS, taking
the third dimension into account. For example,
3D urban mapping and fleet management
will combine 3D visualization with GeoICT
technologies. In combination with new
broadband and Wi-Fi technologies, telcos will
see a variety of new services in the market
that can be delivered by over the top (OTT)
providers, or by telco operators themselves.
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New services
generally to automate existing humanlyperformed operations, such as meter reading,
connected devices, such as e-health. M2M
represents a huge business opportunity for the
telecoms industry in application areas such
as automotive, asset management, energy
management, home and business security and
telehealth since they own the communication
infrastructure which connects the dots.
Highly Miniaturized Power Generators,
which are energy-harvesting devices
based on highly miniaturized structures
capable of converting ambient energy,
such as kinetic energy, into electric energy,
and Nanocomputers, which could be
evolutionary, scaled-down versions of todays
computers, or they may be revolutionary,
based on some new device or molecular
structure not yet developed, will enable
more and more business models in the M2M
arena. This will have a huge impact on the
core business of telecom operators as this
can extend their enterprise business beyond
established domains.
Sensor Networks are also impacting new
services in the telecom space. Sensor
networks is a generalized term for spatially
distributed devices, with at least one sensor,
that are able to detect and monitor events.
Each has a transceiver, controller and power
source. It can also include mobile devices
with sensors, such as smartphones or vehicle
on-board units. The underlying concepts are
the foundation of the internet of things (IoT),
which is an evolution of M2M technologies.
Business opportunities for telcos can be
found in various scenarios: detection of
environmental changes (for instance pressure/
temperature), warning of impending disasters,
vehicle traffic monitoring, surveillance and
security, to name but a few.
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To address the need for information visibility

and understanding of real-time traffic,
Network Intelligence is an emerging
category of technology that can be leveraged
by telcos to offer and enhance new and
existing services. Being able to analyze
data flows in real-time will enable telecom
operators to act. For example, data flows
originated by certain applications (VoIP,
video...) can be billed differently. Certain users
will have different access rights or different
quality levels. Network intelligence is the
concept that will help telecom operators to
move from the dumb pipe model to the
smart pipe model. Billing and CRM systems
will need to be upgraded as a consequence.
Security solutions will be enhanced; controls
can be exerted not only onto users access to
networks, but also while networks are being
used.
Near Field Communication (NFC) does
not need an introduction in the telco world
anymore; meanwhile, a great number of
vendors have included NFC as a standard
feature of their mid and upper range handsets.
It is not new to the financial world. Neither
credit card companies nor major banks have
discovered the technology as a means to offer
payment convenience and by that increase
adoption of electronic payments in general
with or without a hosting mobile handset.
There have been many pilots and trials in
the past few years. Some explored easy
micropayment schemes, others tested
ticketing solutions, and a few tried out loyalty
cards, coupons and deal vouchers. These
proved two things: first, a decent level of
adoption by end users has been achieved;
and second, some of the competitive attitude
between the banks and telcos performing the
trials has not been resolved yet.
Mobile Payments have already been a topic

of interest for some time now; however, in the
last two years there has been another boost
in investigation and development in this area
due some new market trends. Firstly, and as
the major driver, the intensified competition
in the mobile telco market has forced the
mobile network operators (MNOs) to look
for new revenue streams and value-added
services that would differentiate them from
competitors. Open Wholesale Interfaces,
for example, will become a key measure for
telecom operators for integrating third party
players, who increase the customer base, and
provide target group specific innovation.
A second trend is the mass roll-out of mobile
smartphones during the last year. These
devices are capable of offering enhanced
services with additional security around
payment transactions, leading to a much
higher user acceptance. Furthermore, the
moderate price range of these new devices
allows the device manufacturer to integrate
the necessary mobile payment technologies,
such as the above mentioned NFC.
Thirdly, there is increasing demand from the
retail (to increase the speed of the paymentonly process in their shops), the transport
(public transportation, taxis, public parking)
and entertainment markets (cinemas,
restaurants). Alternatives to cash-based
payments could reduce the payment cycle
considerably and would reduce both fraud
risk and merchants cash handling costs.
Smartphones, which are the main enabler
for mobile payments, are quickly penetrating
the market, with worldwide quarterly sales of
around 100 million units and double-digit sales
volume growth.
Speech and Voice Processing Technology

and Natural-Language Processing (NLP)
promise various services opportunities that
could be developed by telcos. NLP is the
speech data, and extract valuable information
from it, while voice processing refers to all
the treatments of voice or audio once it has
been digitalized. Speech and voice processing
technologies include basic capabilities, such as
automatic speech recognition (ASR), voice and
speaker verification, speech synthesis (text-tospeech or TTS) and speech-to-text conversion
(STT) techniques. New applications, such as
speech analytics in contact centers, searching,
automatic translators and automatic indexing
capabilities of audio and multimedia content,
all use some basic speech processing
technologies.
The technology is now mature, robust and
entering mainstream applications: enhanced
access control and security applications with
voice and speaker verification (for instance,
a password reset application), hands-free
operation of multiple devices, biometric
security, speech-to-speech translation, speechenabled web and many others. In particular,
Biometrics could be an interesting field to
step into for telco operators weaving strong
authentication techniques into their services.
Biometrics is the automated use of unique
and straightforward to measure characteristics
of a person that can be physiological
(for instance fingerprints, iris or veins) or
behavioral (for instance typing rhythm or
voice), to determine and verify identity.
As cloud emerges as a competitive sourcing
strategy (in comparison to having your own or
outsourced IT environment), a clear demand
rises to integrate cloud environments to
create an end-to-end managed landscape of
cloud-based functions. That so called Cloud
Orchestration is about the connectivity of IT
and business process levels between different
cloud environments.
Telco operators could act as a broker of

services, complementing their own ones, or
being a full provider of various third party
services out of one hand. Orchestration needs
between clouds will force cloud providers,
like telco operators, to collaborate on open
standards for communication across and
integration within, cloud environments.
Current providers are creating a lock-in model
that inhibits widespread cloud acceptance.
This is not the only inhibitor. Open standards
that allow changing clouds and integration
of cloud functions across many clouds, will
speed the adoption of cloud computing
dramatically. It is similar to the standardization
of the Windows programming model.
Broadband data technologies

4G Wireless Communication is the next
step in wireless communications. A 4G
wireless system will be able to provide a
comprehensive IP solution where voice, data
and streamed multimedia can be given to
users on an anytime, anywhere basis and at
higher data rates than previous generations.
security.
The rollout of the fourth generation
technology LTE (Long Term Evolution) will lack
behind expectations and may only happen in
six countries. Updates on the third generation
technology UMTS will provide a cheap interim
mobile broadband extension. In addition, Wi-Fi
and in-store Wi-Fi will complement the UMTS/
LTE based mobile broadband communication
with annual data growth rates of between 25
and 50 percent: mainly video streaming. A
quarter of North American big box retailers
will start to offer free in-store Wi-Fi access to
their customers. On the other side, Fiber-to-the
home technology (FTTH), which simply uses
light instead of electricity to send information,
and DOCSIS 3.0, which increases the internet
download speed over existing cable TV

lines are coming up with up to 20 Gbit/s in
congested areas.
Meshed Networks also step into this gap
and could offer a relatively cheap to setup and maintain mobile mash network.
Mesh networks are decentralized, local area
networks formed by meshes of peer nodes.
Full-mesh has each node connected to every
other node, while partial-mesh has each node
connected only to some nodes.
The acceptance of LTE as a comprehensive
basic service will be driven by the services
that are delivered through the mobile network.
FTTH is competing against DOCSIS 3.0 and
we can see major service providers, such
as AT&T or Verizon, rolling out fiber optic
networks. As consumers are increasingly
using technologies that require high speed
connections to use video-chatting, streaming
videos, and others, speed is a massive trigger
point. Mobile operators spend a lot of money
on providing mobile broadband for the benefit
of the over the top (OTT) providers, such as
Facebook and Google. Mobile operators do
not profit from the increase in broadband
usage. Through policy management, the
quality of service and smart capping of
services, such as video, mail, FTP, and HTTP,
will help telcos to restrict network load and
better monetize their core assets.
4G will be the first generation of mobile data
networks to support IPv6. This will lead to
the next level of being always connected, and
is an important milestone for the internet of
things. IPv6 as a new internet protocol simply
enables more devices to access the Internet.
With increasing mobile traffic and new online
business models, this simply means more
traffic for telco operators. The question is how
they can deliver more value from the various
upcoming channels to the consumer and
enterprises.
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Web-based Peer-to-Peer (P2P) network

technology involves creating overlays on
top of established networks. Overlays follow
alternative metrics and addressing schemes
to adapt to the search for shared resources
among the connected peers. Popularized
by file sharing for music and video, webbased peer-to-peer enables a wide range of
applications, including real-time multimedia
communication, as with Skype.
Web-based peer-to-peer can apply to most
traffic-intensive services, such as video
distribution and streaming, or real-time
communication. In some cases, it can be used
as an alternative to content delivery networks
(CDN). It is particularly useful in cases when
a small amount of data is sent to a large
number of peers.
Although the impact on telcos may not
be dramatic in general changes could be
very important on some specific uses.
Communication and collaboration services
accessible via the Web, via mobile devices, will
be impacted first. Some impact is also expected
on traffic-intensive content distribution platforms.
Data privacy
Career and personal life of internet users can
be severely impacted if they are not cautious
enough about the personal data that they
(or relatives) make available through posts,
multimedia content sharing, and other means.
Privacy Enhancing Technologies (PET), and
other privacy mechanisms for the controlled
disclosure of data such as anonymization,
pseudonyms and privacy-aware identity
management, can help address these concerns.
Loss of privacy can be considered the most
important emerging risk with future IT systems.
User privacy is an asset to protect within
a given system or community and
becomes a protection goal in itself. Trust
building measures, including non-technical
mechanisms, such as legal norms and
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insurances, and trust supporting institutions,

such as Data Protection Acts, can help to
reduce the risk level on all risk layers. Telco
operators must put customer privacy on
top of the agenda to build trust and give
confidence in using new services.
in terms of relational concepts, or processes.

Telco operators, with their huge amounts of
existing fragmented customer data, need
to be aware of the new social dimension to
develop predictions, and learn about customer
behavior in terms of churn rates, for example.
Social networks and data

analytics
Efficient IT
Social Networking in business is a new way

of working using new collaborative tools based
on social media technology. It makes it easier to
work together and speeds up finding the right
information by immediately enabling people to
locate the right people, and the right knowledge.
These tools enable the organization to work, not
just along formal lines, but also along the cross
boundary and informal lines that are essential
for delivering the agility needed to meet
geographic, product and market changes.
Social context already plays a crucial role in
shaping how things actually get done in any
organization. Managers and individual workers
rely on their personal knowledge of the
workplace, or professional social context, and
use informal communication channels, such
as e-mail, the telephone, private conversations
and, increasingly, social networking services, to
carry out their work. Social network platforms
are used increasing over mobile devices, such
as tablets. This also has to be recognized by
telco operators they have the opportunity to
enhance their services accordingly.
Social Network Analysis (SNA) is one of
these opportunities. SNA is the mapping and
measuring of relationships and flows between
people, groups, organizations, competitors,
URLs, and other connected information/
knowledge entities. The nodes in the network
are the people and groups, while the links
show relationships or flow between the nodes.
SNA provide both a visual and a mathematical
analysis of human relationships. The social
network analysis perspective includes theories,
models, and applications that are expressed
Telcos have to be very keen on streamlining

their internal capabilities in order to
deliver efficient services into the market.
Grid Computing aims to deliver high
computational power for resource-intensive
applications, by loosely coupling a high
number of distributed resources, or nodes.
Typically, one application is distributed over
many nodes. This is different from cloud
computing, where the goal is to provide
scalable and cheap IT resources to many
different users and applications.
Grid computing involves the sharing of
heterogeneous resources and data across a
network, and can operate across disparate
platforms and architectures, possibly located
in different administrative domains. It requires
a specific middleware to assign work to nodes,
and deal with networking issues. Telcos, like
any other IT driven companies, urgently need
to optimize their computing capability and
with that their capital investment. This leads to
lower costs, such as with the removal of overprovisioning of hardware and resources.
Enterprise Information Management (EIM)
is the practice of managing the growing
amounts of information at an enterprise level,
both structured and unstructured, is crucial
for ensuring that an organization maximizes
the benefit of the information it has available,
whilst ensuring its security. It tackles the issues
of information silos, and is one key element
in combating inefficiencies. Telcos operate
at the heart of customer information and
should master the handling of crucial internal
information like no other industry. They need
to be fast in a rapidly changing market.
Media
Business Imperatives
Lead in business transformation
From old to new media, from analog to digital,
from off-line to online, from single media
to multi media: media and entertainment
companies who understand the impact of
technology and swiftly adapt their business
will achieve competitive advantage. The
new landscape is a mix of print, (IP)TV,
events, online and mobile, and is constantly
changings its balance.
Consumers today are well-informed,
connected and already have many alternative
ways for reaching content. Media companies
are no longer the only gateway to it.
Consumers will look for branded content
through search, their social networks, and
specific media brands. They also generate
content, and as such become a separate
channel that enhances formal/branded
content. There is a unique opportunity for
media companies to moderate and integrate
these channels to enhance their brand
recognition.
New technologies can enable profitable
growth in multiple niche markets, such as the
long tail, since niche consumers are more
emotionally involved, have a higher value add
perception, and are increasing willingness to
pay for content.
Equally, media companies need to explore
innovative revenue streams, and develop
existing schemes: from subscriptions and
micropayments, through advertisementrelated revenues, to e-commerce and betting.
All options need to be considered as there is

no single answer yet to the question Who
will pay for content? New competitors, such
as Spotify and Netflix, will shake up usual
payment behaviors with their price aggressive
all-you-can-watch models and force traditional
media companies to react.
During 2012, a large number of consumers
will become used to the new form factors
of tablets and smartphones as a preferred
media interface. These are neither early
adopters nor tech-oriented yuppies, but the
very mass market. After an initial phase of
experimenting, consumers will soon settle
down into a behavior that will be stable for the
coming years. It is now that they are selecting
their preferred media sources for these new
devices. Media companies need to make
sure they are part of this new mass-market
behavior.
Enable business agility

The ability to make quick changes to current
business models and to swiftly roll-out
new services will be critical in this phase
of industry transformation. Modern media
asset management, publishing systems,
and workflows are architected to allow the
rapid additions of new linear and nonlinear
platforms, serving an increasing number
of devices and distribution channels. True
Service-Oriented Architectures (SOA) with
an agnostic plug and play capability are
increasingly being deployed within media
organizations to enable such agility. This is
also an enabler for organizational change:
separate teams are no longer required to

manage the different versions of the same
content for different platforms.
Create once, repurpose many

The technological changes in the market are
very disruptive. A multimedia company is best
positioned to survive these challenges with
a complete coverage of the media channels
perimeter. A broad portfolio magazines,
digital, events, broadcast that delivers
content in a relevant context will provide
an interesting and sustainable platform
for commercial companies to reach their
audience. Consumers are demanding access
to its content of choice through all its key
outlets.
Historically, the addition of new channels
and devices to the media delivery chain has
led to a rich zoo of platforms to be serviced.
Often, the linear and online teams in media
organizations have, through operational and
technical necessity, been separate silos. New
production and publishing technologies mean
that this no longer needs to be the case:
an item of content can be published in the
appropriate format to multiple platforms at the
touch of a button. However, the practicalities
of transforming the organization along such
lines are often daunting. Therefore, media
companies should focus on creating great
content and a viewing experience (the things
they do best) and approach the challenges of
the technological transformation in close cooperation with experienced and agile partners.
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The use and movement of media assets in a

simple and cost effective way is essential to
the successful production and distribution
of content and, ultimately, to supporting
marketing and sales objectives. The move
to digital production and distribution is now
well advanced in many organizations. This is
combined with the rapid increase in the need
to reuse, reformat and repurpose content for
different outlets. The ability to do this quickly
and cheaply is central to being able to offer
the market appropriate content in a cost
effective way. Most organizations are able to
find and reformat content, but speed and cost
make the substantial difference to the bottom
line.
Catch-up in shaping customer

intimacy
Grow audience penetration and market
share: this has always been an imperative
for businesses. But Media is late to the
game and in catch-up mode. Personalized
web delivery and consumption of media
provides numerous opportunities for highly
tuned advertising, and related cross- and
up-sell. Knowing the customer and being
able to tag content appropriately and relate
to other materials and adverts (for not only
products, but also programs and downloads),
such as books or apps, is vital. More content
will become available for consumption off
the Web and the ability to optimize the
commercial opportunities that this provides
is critical to ensuring that user expectations
are correctly set for the availability and cost of
content.
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Mind personal data privacy

Network architecture, data encryption, tight
security controls, data leakage protection,
intrusion detection: these are all things not
typically considered a top priority at most
media companies (pay-TV providers are an
exception here). However, with the growth of
cloud services, mobile computing and social
media, plus the continued improvements in
processing capabilities, traditional security
models will not suffice.
As we have seen recently, large media
organizations, such as Sony, Facebook
and Google, have experienced security
breaches and significant data leakage.
Information security is imperative for todays
media enterprises on their journey from an
impersonal broadcast content distributor to
a trusted brand offering personalized media
experience and exchange.
Media
Business Trends
Service virtualization on a path to
rapid adoption
The Cloud is the perfect enabler for new
media. It represents a transformation from
ownership to utilization. What is a vault of
broadcast assets value, if you are not making
profitable use of them across all delivery
channels? The Cloud is also a social trend
that implies shared creativity and ongoing
change -- a perfect picture of media today.
Cloud allows you to close the gap that keeps
opening up between technology landscapes
and business opportunities with speed, scale
and synergy. Cloud is non-linear, user-driven
and happening whether you like it or not. It
might threaten your current media operations
and revenue sources, but it can also radically
transform your operational excellence and
audience outcomes.
Cloud based ... as a service models will
continue to grow in consumer and business
contexts alike. Improvements in security,
content encoding and encryption techniques
will provide a greater level of confidence in
these services. For example, ActiveVideo
Networks has developed new capabilities for
its cloud-based app platform called CloudTV
that helps cable operators reduce churn while
also offering subscribers the ability to watch
video-on-demand (VOD) titles on one screen
and then seamlessly move to another within a
predetermined access window.
On the opposite side of the equation, iCloud,
Chromebooks, Office 365, catch-up TV,
Netflix, and the likes, consume enormous
amounts of bandwidth. Bandwidth of online
and mobile is reaching its limits; therefore

the cloud trend will collide with the available
bandwidth. Bandwidth will improve over the
years, and with smart solutions, this collision
can be postponed to create a responsive user
experience.
Smart devices to enter

media workers professional
environment
The proliferation of smart devices (particularly
smartphones and tablets) has been huge.
Coupled with a wide range of applications
addressing linear, non-linear and social
media, these devices have become, in many
cases, the preferred means of interacting
with broadcast, print and online media. This
technology is finding its way into traditional
media devices, for example Panasonic smart
TV sets now allow simultaneous TV channel
viewing and internet access.
Increasingly, media employees (including
freelancers, contractors and trusted third
parties) are using their own devices on
corporate networks and are working with
standard consumer tools, such as Skype,
Facebook and Yammer, to interact with each
other. So when previously we have talked
about the martini moment for viewers,
we should perhaps also refer to anytime,
anyplace, anywhere (and on any device)
working for media company employees and
the organizations they work with to make
and distribute their content. The user, not
the service provider, is defining the types of
device and services that need to be provided.
Brands will engage more in social

interactive media
Social communities, both online and
otherwise, can gravitate around content and
brands, as well as in a general sense, such as
in Facebook and MySpace. Content providers
can exploit the interest in their content
brands by enabling fan based communities
and providing targeted content/advertising
to cross/up-sell related products. In addition,
these communities can be engaged with web
chats and by providing behind the scenes
type content that can build on the quality of
the consumer engagement.
There are many examples of additional
content being made available for high profile
media brands. Enabling a greater level of
engagement with the user community can
improve the quality of this interaction with
the consumer and strengthen brand loyalty.
The nature of the brand will allow different
exploitation models to be adopted. Traditional
media publishers have adopted a number
of different approaches, some newspaper
titles have provided subscription models with
limited free access to their content online and
the remainder behind a paywall, along with
additional content. Others have adopted a
different style of content presentation (with
subtly different feel/voice to the newsprint
versions) along with advertising features to
exploit the content.
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In all cases, the sense of community is

engendered by brand associations, comments
on articles/features, opinion sharing, and such
like, as well as targeted advertising based
on brand values and specific topic based
relationships.
Personalized infotainment and

advertisement will go multiscreen
The rise of social media along with mobile
internet devices is changing the TV
experience. Through the networked effect
of social media services, such as Twitter, a
new dimension has been added to television
viewing. In the past you had a family sat
around their TV and private conversations
regarding what was being viewed. Now,
with the widening adoption of smart mobile
devices, the opportunity is there to increase
content consumption from different providers
on different devices in the same physical area,
such as the familys living room. Particularly
with live events and broadcasts, the modern
spectators are using mobile screens (besides
the TV or event) to enhance their experience.
Some examples of mobile apps are NBA
Courtside, Masters Golf, Formula1, Rabo
Cycling, NOS Second Screen and Tour de
France.
More importantly for media companies, this
has become a two-way relationship with the
service providers: an aspiration that finally
becomes true after years and years of a
number of technological trials. The future
of television is not just social and solo, but
will be interactive and participative. The best
of it is that current statistics suggest that
Social TV or Web TV (meaning embedded
in the TV device) will not reduce the use of
second screens. As real-time knowledge of
the audience is readily available, the relevant
consumer engagement along with targeted
advertising becomes a reality.
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Relevance of mobile games is

growing
Green is here to stay

Broadcasters are generally high profile
organizations, often spreading the green
message as part of their output; consequently
they are in the spotlight themselves. But
there are practical considerations: many
broadcasters reside in old inefficient premises
that are no longer fit for purpose and are
causing a huge financial overhead. New or
renovated premises can deliver a working
environment that aids productivity, enables
relevant processes and workflows, positions
the broadcaster for the future and saves
money in the long term. This also presents a
great opportunity to positively transform the
operational and technical landscape.
The mobile gaming market continues to

be a key area of growth. During the year
innovations will emerge in production and
distribution of games. We can expect to see
further advances in mobile sales channels,
following the US examples of AT&T and
Zynga. Phones tailored for interactive mobile
gamers have already hit the market, but have
not joined the mainstream yet. The promise
of mobile gaming to the media industry is
very much related to the license business,
but also in-game purchasing and advertising.
The latter is seen as being more effective
than TV marketing in todays world and gives
game developers a new source of revenue,
allowing them to offset the increasing costs
of development as gamers expectations
continue to grow.
Alternative content
There has, however, been a backlash from

some gamers who see this advertising as
simply greedy. In-game purchases of digital
goods, from additional game levels, new
characters and cheats up to real world
merchandising, have proven to be in line with
gamers interests and, together with easy
payment modalities, will increase popularity.
Gamization, the introduction of competitive
elements, rewards and infotainment into social
apps of various natures, is already building on
the entertainment element as a successful
means to engage with users.
The desire to be informed in a different

manner and collaborative media is an
opportunity for citizens to regain control of
the information they consume and publish.
The number of citizen journalists is on the
rise, providing many points of view to inform
debate.
61
Media
Business Impact of Emerging
Technologies and Solutions
TRANSFO
RMA
TIO
NA
L
Mainstream
SE
RV
IC
H E
Early adoption
Adolescent
Emerging
AL
IUM
CT
PA MED
IM
SS
NE
SI
IG BU
H
Intelligent CrossEnterprise Integration
Browser Apps
Virtual World and 3D
IP Connected TV
Mesh Networks
3D Media
Business Process
Automation
Mobile
Advertising
IPv6
Near Field Communications

Online and Mobile
New Compression
Micropayments
Techniques
Windows 8
SOA
Cybernetics
LOW
Online and Mobile

Payments
Cost-Effective Workflow
Management
Multicast Streams
Multi-Media in Social Networks
Social Gaming
Now
62
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Connected TV
One unit to provide TV, PC, Web, and phone
opens the potential to increase penetration
of IPTV/VOD offerings to traditional TV
consumers. The installed base of IP
Connected TV sets is slowly but steadily
picking up, with speed of adoption determined
by the typical replacement life cycle.
Connected TVs will become mainstream
though, and will open the door for internet
enabled services, either via a channel on
the TV or an over the top solution. This will
broaden and deepen the experience using
TV as a media device, for example app
store for connected TV. To date there is no
real standard and different industries are
competing: telecom, consumer electronics
and IT industries.
Multicast
Internet centric media distribution, such as
Google TV, Apple TV and Netflix, is growing
exponentially and competing with the
consumption of conventionally broadcasted
contents. Under the umbrella of a traditional
broadcaster brand, it also creates a huge
opportunity to enhance the addressable
market space and engage consumers in a
social and interactive way.
Industry agreement on how best to provide

Multicast Streams will be needed to
ensure that the increased consumption of
content does not swamp the Web. IPv6 is
expected to help traffic management and
consumer tracking, and advanced streaming
technologies will allow for easier content
distribution to a variety of client devices: from
large TV screens to smartphones. H.264 codes
will substitute MPEG2 technologies in all
domains and allow for efficient distribution of
next generation quality content.
Virtual worlds and 3D

Enhancing content through Virtual World
and 3D technologies will move into new
applications. Clearly, movies and advertising
are in the forerunners, but we can expect to
see a lot of activity in this area by the major
technology companies. Telecom operators,
such as Orange, and broadcasters, such as
Sky, have already diversified into 3D Media.
It is likely that new businesses, products and
services will emerge around this technology.
Apps or browser?
Consumers love the speed and feel of apps
on their tablets. Media companies have mixed
emotions. Apps offer great navigation and
design possibilities and people are willing to
pay for them. But apps can come with a high
cost: in the case of Apples App Store, 30% of
the revenue goes to Apple; there is no direct
relationship with the audience and you need
to develop and maintain apps for different
platforms.
Web-app technology and HTML5 are
developing rapidly, and new Browser Apps
will be able to achieve the same look-and-feel
as native tablet apps. Once these exist, media
companies will move to the Web in a massive
way in order to really engage with their
audiences. This will be driven by publishers
and supported by low-cost tablets with only a
single feature: a browser.
There may be a market opportunity for a 3D

compromise though: a 2.5D solution that
provides higher depth perception than current
High Definition, but not as high as a full 3D.
The main advantage is that there would be no
need for specialized eye-ware to experience
3D.
63
X-Payments
Online and Mobile Payment methods are still
too difficult and diverse for the mass-market
especially in the micro-payments domain.
Apple was the first to make payment easy and
fully integrated in the complete service.
2012 will see the start of new mass-market
mature payment methodologies that will
increase the adoption of Online and Mobile
Micropayments. This will be based on Near
Field Communications (NFC) technology, but
more importantly -- insanely easy to use.
Mobile advertising
With the upcoming IPv4, fast development
of mobile devices and the leverage of Wi-Fi
technology, we will see new varieties of
Mobile Advertising and marketing. The
demand for IP addresses in emerging markets,
such as China or India, is exploding and the
enabler for that is IPv4. The result is a more
online world than ever with multiple access
points for the consumer and enterprises. As
a result, we will see more complex marketing
strategies that have to include reaching out
to the customers on more channels, and in
different environments and communities.
Asset management solutions

Linked with the business-to-business
integration concept above, we believe the
media industry should develop interfaces,
or a Mesh Network with client adaptors, to
provide integration across their respective
archives. The objective would be that from
within an organization you could search not
only the internal but also partner libraries,
which will need to include cross-organization
searching, charging and collaboration.
64
This does not only apply to the media sector,

but we believe it is something that will
grow across all sectors in the future: more
Intelligent Cross-Enterprise Integration.
For example, if you logged into your banks
website, and looked at the direct debits on
your current account, currently it would
simply say British Gas, a reference number
and the last charged amount. In the future
this would be a hyperlink where you would
click on the direct debit and be presented
with details of your gas consumption, usage
history, price history, and other information
-- direct from the suppliers site.
This will require development of a trusted
services mesh, where vendors can each
link into each others data, within extensive
security controls.
Back to digital media asset management
better management of content repositories
will reduce current data-volumes and file-size
growth rates. Further, higher and higher
definition of content capture will drive
innovation for better handling of large files
and Compression Techniques.
Workflow management tools

Business Process Automation has become
a major topic, either due to need to save
cost and time, or to standardize operations.
Automatic quality control and transcoding
are demanded in an all-file domain. The cost
of the enabling technologies has not reduced
significantly compared with, say, five years
ago, but the range of operations available is
increasing year on year., Media organizations
can now see definite financial benefits arising
from the associated investment.
Automating processes also demand that

the organization takes a look at its current
operations in detail, possibly identifying
process efficiencies that dont require
substantial investment for example P7S1.
Most recent large-scale tenders from
broadcasters have centered on such tools and
their deployment. This technology can drive
significant savings, though a large proportion
of the projected savings are at the expense
of jobs. This is not a good message to be
putting out during an economic downturn,
and maybe a non-starter in certain emerging
economies where the cost of employing
armies of operational staff is still less than the
investment in tools.
Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is the
current buzzword in broadcast engineering
circles. Its not always the most appropriate
solution, but we need to be clear on the
advantages of this, and have the right
relationships in place. We also need to be
looking at more Cost-Effective Workflow
Management: enterprise-class applications
come with a hefty price tag and, as we have
seen in the digital processing world, new
entrants are taking a sizeable share of the
market and forcing the big boys to cut their
cloth accordingly.
IPv6
Multi-media in social networks
The new internet protocol simply enables

more devices to access the Internet. The
availability of more addresses will help drive
different types of net communities and
content delivery innovations. IPv6 makes it
possible to use unimaginable sextillions (3.4
* 10 to the power of 4) of IP addresses IPv4
enables only 4.2 billion. When you think
about connected households with connected
home appliances, and watching TV over the
Internet or VoIP (which is already a reality
today), more room means more freedom of
design.
Multi-Media in Social Networks is a fusion

of audio-visual content with social networks,
where communication is through audio and
video instead of simple text. It leverages the
new digital world, the growth of on-demand
services and the fragmentation that has
occurred in artists and repertoire (A&R).
Windows 8
In 2012 you will see an enormous push from
Microsoft to gain a position in the tablet
market. Judging by the first views on Windows
8, this is going to be a major competitor to
Apple and Android. Key drivers will be the
vast market share that Microsoft has in the PC
market, and the ability to leverage this share
with synchronization tools and collaboration
tools for the tablet. A second driver will be
Microsofts development environment that
is much more extensive than the Apple
development tooling.
Cybernetics
Cybernetics is eroding the boundaries
between man and machine. Brain pacemakers
to control mood and artificial nervous systems
are being implanted in people today. Artificial
eyes that are video cameras have been in
use for years. The entertainment uses of
such technology are only now starting to be
explored.
As multimedia takes off in social networks,

value will migrate from traditional media
players to the new online media players.
Already for the online news portal, particularly
YouTube, a fair share of hits are coming from
the traditional media business.
Social networks can also provide insight that
is useful for personalization and advertising.
Social network analysis technologies enable
useful information from the vast quantities of
social networking data to be extracted and
analyzed.
Gamization
Adding Social Gaming and entertainment
interface to applications will establish itself as
a universal means to attract users attention.
In the context of a social games and ever
expanding user communities, the volume of
digital goods purchased and advertisements
placed will grow substantially.
65
Innovation Radars
in Detail
66
67
2012+ SEP Innovation Radar

in Detail: Socio-Cultural
Urbanization
Changing Attitudes
Towards Work(place)
Digital Connected Society
Changing Family Unit

Intensive Lifestyles
Eco-Awareness
Community Building
Ageing Population
Individualisation
Inherent Reliance
on Technology
Information Owned by Many
Multi-Ethnic Society
Emerging issues
68
Maturing issues
Burning issues
Aging population
Concept
consume; and those who are dependent

owing to poor health or general infirmity.
The ageing population constitutes a shift

in the distribution of a countrys population
towards a higher average age. Population
ageing arises from two (possibly related)
demographic effects: increasing longevity and
declining fertility.
As they become more dominant is society,

older people are also likely to demand goods
and services tailored to their specific needs
a reversal of the current trend whereby
stores generally seek to attract the younger
shoppers.
Asia and Europe are the two regions in which

a significant number of countries face severe
population ageing in the near future. Within
twenty years, many Asian and European
countries will face a situation where the largest
population cohort will be those over 65 and
the average age will be approaching 50.
Some Japanese economists see advantages

in this scenario, notably because it encourages
and makes possible further automation and
technological development without the
usual social efforts and consequences of
reducing the wages of the labor force and
unemployment.
Trajectory
Social welfare and health systems have

begun to experience problems. Pay-as-yougo pension systems are unsustainable. The
largest area of expenditure now is healthcare,
and the cost will increase dramatically as
the population ages. Many governments will
face hard choices between higher taxes, a
change in tax systems (such as from labor
to consumption) or a reduced government
role in providing healthcare. Chances are,
socio-economic disparities will become
more pronounced in ageing societies and
thus frictions may arise if not dealt with
appropriately.
Until recently, there were no more than

five percent of people over 65 in any given
country, but greater longevity, combined with
a 59% decrease in world fertility between
1950 and 2050, has led to this demographic
changing significantly.
In 2000, the number of people aged 60 and
over was 650 million. By 2025 this number
will grow to 1.2 billion, and by 2050 to 2 billion.
Significantly, there is also a sharp increase in
the proportion of elderly in less developed
countries. In 1950, 4% of the population of less
developed countries was aged over sixty-five.
Today, that proportion has risen to nearly 6%,
and is projected to reach nearly 15% by 2050.
There are two subsets of ageing population:
retired people, who can still be active (working
or volunteering, for instance), travel and
An aging population also means an aging

workforce. The first wave of Baby Boomers
turned 65 in 2011. In OECD (Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development)
countries there will be twenty million fewer
people of working age in 2020 than there are
today. Employers will therefore have to get

smarter about how they attract and retain
good people. The war for talent will mean
companies keeping workers on the payroll for
longer, and recruiting older people (especially
those aged over 50). There might even be
a significant effect on global migration; as
workforce levels decline in high-income
countries, the vacuum might to be filled by
immigrants from low-income countries.
Changing attitude towards

work(place)
Concept
Attitudes relating to work (work-life balance)
and the workplace seem to be shifting,
especially in the advanced economies.
Basically it is about giving a person more
control over the conditions at work. It is
accomplished when people feel dually
satisfied about their personal life and their
paid occupation.
A phrase that brings the idea of work-life
balance into focus is Work to live, dont live to
work. It is also related to the physical location
where work would need to be performed
(home, office, someplace else) and the way
people are (or want to be) managed.
Several developments underpin the growing
strength of this trend: growing number of
women at the workplace, the entrance of
Millennials (or Generation Y) into the world of
work, environmental concerns, cost reduction
motives and the general transformation to
knowledge intensive economies.
69
Trajectory
Women are making serious inroads in the
labor force. The number of highly educated
women is steadily rising. Currently around
57% of women are employed and by 2025
it is estimated that gainful employment for
women will be 65% in the EU. This changes
to work(place) requirements, and to society
in general, as the classic gender related role
patterns are further eroded.
Companies will increasingly face demands
from employees (male and female) for a
better work-life (and career) balance, and more
flexibility in location (remote) and time.
In 2015, Millennials (or Generation Y) will
constitute the majority of the workforce.
They are motivated by flat hierarchies, virtual
teams, flexible working conditions and
fascinating tasks. They are motivated less by
material incentives. Millennials also have high
expectations about the workspace technology
provided by their employers. This will
challenge many of the conventional wisdoms
of current management, organization, process
and IT and security.
Recently, working from home has been
discussed a lot again, perhaps boosted by
the need to cut costs during the recession
and environmental concerns. Employers
are increasingly seeing this approach as a
business necessity that yields great savings.
Money is saved on travel, overheads and
subsistence, with the added bonus of creating
carbon-free jobs. These discussions are now
quite often held under the theme of Newways-of-working.
For employees, individuals who are seeking
to improve their own work-life balance may
Downshift. Individuals who downshift might:
choose to work fewer hours so they can
spend more time with their family; Take on
a different job role or title, typically with less
70
pressure or responsibility and often for less

remuneration; decide to give up working
entirely, possibly becoming a stay-at-home
parent; work less and at the same time make
lifestyle choices, such as adopting a less
consumerist approach that requires less
substantial outgoings.
increase in lone parents is mainly attributed to

a growth in the proportion of births outside of
marriage.
Will traditional offices be extinct in 2021? Well,

things will probably be different; people will
not commute to the office daily. However,
some research suggests that only a small
proportion of people today would like to work
from home.
Changing family unit

Concept
Over the past couple of decades, particularly
in the West, the traditional family unit has
radically changed and new models have
arisen.
There has been a decrease in the number of
children living in families that are headed by
a couple and an increase in those living in
families with a lone parent. In the UK nearly a
quarter of children live in lone-parent families,
compared with a fifth ten years ago and an
eighth in the early 1980s.
It is not only the family unit, but households in
general that are changing: the growing trend
is towards singularization. In Europe, between
20 and 25 percent of all households comprise
one person, while in the US the figure is even
higher. It is not confined to the West. In Taiwan,
for instance, the figure is also around 25%.
Trajectory
There are more people living by themselves,
or in one-parent households, in the UK
than people living as part of a traditional
nuclear family. An increase in divorce rates
in the eighties was thought to be the main
contributor to the changes seen, but today the
In 2006, 25% of homes in the UK were

single-person households. By 2021, 40% of all
British and Dutch households are forecast to
be under single occupancy. This is put down
to a variety of factors, such as people staying
single until later in life, divorce being easier,
increased social and personal mobility, and
longer lifespans, especially for women.
The trajectory has taken shape over the
last thirty years, more than the life of one
generation. The social changes to which this
trajectory is attributed are firmly embedded
within Western cultures; it would be very hard
for any government legislation or policy to
reverse the trends. We can therefore expect to
see a continued growth in families headed by
a single parent.
It is interesting that there is diversity within
political parties in terms of strategies
regarding changing family dynamics. Some
parties are trying to reverse the trend,
proposing policies that would benefit married
couples whereas others are accepting that this
trend is here to stay and looking at designing
policy that accepts these changes.
A continued increase in single person
households may further decrease housing
availability and increase debt as people
borrow to afford a decent home.
Consumer goods companies, shops and
stores still tend to cater towards the traditional
family unit and younger shoppers though
there are now retail concepts coming up that
focus on single person households and, for
instance, holidays targeted at singles is set to
grow.
Community building
Concept
Community building is directed towards the
creation or enhancement of community
between individuals within a regional area
(such as a neighborhood) or with a common
interest (that may or may not be limited to
geographical boundaries).
In the industrialized nations, the apparent
loss of community is seen as a key cause of
social disintegration and of the emergence of
antisocial behavior.
Community building is a means to increase
social justice, individual wellbeing and
reduce the negative impacts of otherwise
disconnected individuals.
Trajectory
Increased personal and social mobility
decreases the likelihood of generations of the
same family living in the same geographical
area. It also leads to a rise in single person
households, with young professionals, in
particular, more likely to more around and live
alone, away from their traditional (family) and
geographical networks.
As a consequence of this, and possibly
as a backlash against the trend towards
individualization, new ways of community
building are emerging. Much of this activity
occurs on the Internet, and Web 2.0 is an
important carrier wave.
On the Internet, this trend is rapidly maturing.
There are something like 500,000 comments
posted on Facebook every sixty seconds,
and during the Arab Spring we witnessed
the enormous impact it had on the ability
of Arab democracy movements to organize
themselves.
In real life, things are moving more slowly

in general. There is an increased emphasis
on participation in neighborhoods gated
communities in the USA being an extreme
example of this. Society might become more
inclusive.
Where people follow the Web. 2.0 credo
of share and win, focus shifts away from
the individual toward the community and
common welfare. People make use of their
collective intelligence, build networks and
organize their community activities by
themselves.
Co-operation is also an important behavior
trend for the more digitally-connected
Generation Y, as are connections and
relationships (community), social or personal
justice and authenticity. This group tends to be
more socially aware than their predecessors.
As a result of this digital connectivity, societies
can expect a greater level of social activism,
with greater outreach across cultures and
political parties.
Digitally connected society

Concept
A digitally connected society is an electronic
grouping of individuals, enabled by the Web,
characterized by common interests. It may
have a distinctive culture and institutions.
A society may refer to particular people,
such as a specific ethnic group or to a broad
cultural group. It can also refer to an organized
group of people associated together for
religious, benevolent, cultural, scientific,
political, patriotic or other purposes, sharing a
common identity.
Trajectory
The following components are common to
societies:
``
Social networks: maps of relationships
between people with proximity, frequency
of contact and type of relationship (such as
a relative or a friend) define various social
networks. Since the adoption of web- and
Web 2.0-enabled mechanisms, these
features have had an enormous impact:
members are always in close contact and
can be called upon anytime, anywhere,
using any device.
``
Social network services: web-based software
systems designed to support interaction
and collaboration over a network, such as
chat, messaging, e-mail, video, voice chat,
file sharing, blogging, discussion groups,
wikis and folksonomies (a user-generated
taxonomy used to categorize and retrieve
web content).
This is enabling people to share information
easily and consult each other on any number
of issues, such as product information, instead
of relying on professional critics.
One of the reactions of companies will be (and
has already been) to offer more customer-tocustomer forums as a marketing instrument.
Societies that are connected are enjoying
the huge benefits and opportunities brought
about by this continuing advancement in
terms of information accessibility, social
connectivity, work productivity and personal
independence. This extends well beyond
just consumer related influence and into the
realms of social events and politics.
The emergence of smartphones (such as
iPhone and Android) with integrated apps
(Instant Messaging, Twitter, Facebook, and
such like) makes this trend even stronger.
71
Not everyone in the world is connected.

According to recent figures there are 2 billion
internet subscriptions, so roughly a third of the
worlds population is connected.
In general internet penetration is highest
in the developed countries. Some analysts
believe this will even out within the next ten
years.
Another thing to keep in mind is that a single
subscription might have more than one user.
Eco-awareness
Concept
The green movement (or eco-movement)
is a political and societal movement that
advocates goals, including environmentalism,
sustainability, non-violence and social justice
concerns. Supporters of the Green movement,
called Greens, adhere to green ideology
and share many ideas with the ecology,
conservation, environmental, feminist and
peace movements.
Trajectory
Green ideology is based on three axioms:
``
It is impossible to expand forever into a
finite space
``
It is impossible to take infinitely from a finite
resource
``
Everything on the surface of the Earth is
interconnected.
There are several acronyms for this type
of consumer: LOHAS is one of them.
LOHAS stands for Lifestyles of Health
and Sustainability. It is used to describe
the personal values of these consumers.
The products they buy are based on their
personal, social or environmental values.
72
There are signs that eco-awareness or green

consumption is really taking hold. Survey
figures show a tripling of green purchasing
in 2008 compared to 2007. Generally,
consumers would like to buy more sustainable
goods if the quality of these products is seen
as higher. The 2011 Green Brands Survey
recently found that consumer interest in
green products continues to increase and has
expanded across categories from personal
care, food and household products to
automotive, energy and technology goods.
In a PWC survey for the World Economic
Forum, 64% of CEOs said they are sensing
a shift in consumer preferences towards
environmentally and socially responsible
businesses.
A central value (not just for Generation Y, but

also for Generation X) is self-reliance. This will
become a more prevalent societal value as the
Baby Boomer Generation passes. Of course,
surviving as an individual is easier in good
economic times than in bad times.
In some quarters there is a sense that the
rise of individualism corresponds with
the decline of community. This argument
sees individualism as having damaging
consequences, as it fuels selfishness and
greed or can lead to isolation and fear as
people struggle to cope and are forced to live
alone.
Technology has and is still enabling us
to increasingly leading separate lives. It is
becoming increasingly easier to isolate
ourselves physically from other people at
home or at work. At the same time, using
evolving and accelerating communications
technology, we are becoming more
connected in other ways. The many options
for self-expression that are available now and
are bringing us to an entirely new level of
individualization.
Individualization
Concept
Individualization is a term used to describe
a process towards a moral, political or social
outlook that stresses human independence
and the importance of individual self-reliance
and liberty.
Individualists promote the exercise of
individual goals and desires. They oppose
most external interference with an individuals
choices, whether by society, the state, or any
other group or institution.
There is a growing freedom of choice granted
to individuals within society.
Western countries have the highest degree of

individualization, but we are also witnessing
increasing individualization in, for instance
Asia. According to experts, access to
education, media and growing affluence are
the main drivers behind this trend.
Trajectory
Some argue that individuals are not dutybound to any socially imposed morality and
that individuals should be free to choose to be
selfish (or to choose any other lifestyle) if they
so desire. Others would argue that individualist
goals are not selfish, so long as they do not
harm others.
Information owned by many

Concept
With the first generation of the Internet,
information was provided and owned by the
few for the consumption of many. The second
generation of the Internet sees the many now
willing and able to contribute to the wealth of
knowledge and information.
Companies and individuals alike are now no
longer in control of the information written
about them on the Web, with nuggets of
information appearing within many diverse
sources. It is not easy to either seek out all the
information or influence the impression that it
is making.
Trajectory
To date, internet reputation is often overlooked
by companies and individuals. The power
of internet reputation has not yet hit home
in many instances, and its impact on brand
(positive or negative) is not fully understood.
We may see this come to a head in the
next few years: major brands could be hit
hard if they do not acknowledge that their
brands identity and the information about it
are being created in a wider context by the
many. Failing to manage the reputation of
brands on the Internet may have damaging
consequences.
If one major brand is affected in this way, there
will be an initial knee-jerk reaction from others
as the message is brought home. Initially,
other brands will fight hard to regain control of
information about them, but this is doomed to
failure as information proliferation cannot be
controlled on the Web.
In the longer term, companies and individuals
will embrace the ability of the Internet to build
or destroy their reputation, and managing
internet reputation will become a mainstream
activity.
Even governments are increasingly unable to

control the flow of information. Disconnecting
an entire country from its internet service
was in vain to keep protesters in Egypt from
organizing on Twitter, Facebook and other
social networking platforms. China already has
some of the worlds most far-reaching online
restrictions and is increasing them still further.
Inherent reliance on technology

Concept
Reliance on technology means that our
personal world, and our society, cannot
function without the use of technological
devices. This includes cell phones, debit and
credit cards, computers, the Internet and cars.
For instance, smartphones and tablets have
become an essential tool in our lives, little
technological Swiss knives that can be used
anywhere. Users are confident that with that
technology at hand anytime, they can face
any challenge that might arise in their daily
lives they do not plan their itinerary anymore
because they know that, if need be, they
can look up the map or timetable on their
smartphone.
Our trust in technology has already
profoundly changed our personal behaviors.
Trajectory
The use of personal electronics has taken
off dramatically over the last twenty years.
Technology has moved from novelty to
necessity in a very short time. People, for
instance, prefer consulting the Internet for
information than looking through a book.
We also rely on it to do more and more for us;

no need for a camera, the smartphone has
one. No need to check up on info on the Web
on the desktop before leaving house look it
up on the smartphone or tablet if and when
required. And all sorts of apps cover all sorts of
needs that could pop up during the day.
In the near future, the wallet will not be
necessary either the mobile will be the
means of payment, as well as the transport
ticket. It may even be a key (already tested in
Japan).
Things are developing in a direction that
everyone might have Primary Digital
Device (PDD). It is this PDD that keeps users
connected 24 hours a day at home, in
transit and at work. It is used to download
and record music, video and other content,
and to keep in touch with family, friends
and acquaintances. It will, in the future, also
be context sensitive, understanding what
information needs to be downloaded.
While new technologies can enhance lives
and streamline the way we do business,
unfortunately there are individuals and entities
who will attempt to exploit them to do harm.
This is not the only danger; just think of
what would happen if we had no electricity
to power our devices. It would not only
impact our personal lives, but society and the
economy as a whole (stock exchanges rely on
computers, which rely on electric power).
Some studies show that the mobile phone

is the second object (after their keys, but
before their wallet) that users realize they have
forgotten and left at home. Day and night, it
serves as a personal assistant and as a remote
control for their world.
73
Intensive lifestyles
Concept
Life seems increasingly intensive, especially
with the amount of information people get
and variety of must-do private activities that
are now available. Personal lives can be very
demanding.
However, this concept is not solely about
intensity of the personal lives. The idea of
intensive lifestyles relates to work and the
work-life balance of a person and his or her
control over the conditions in the workplace.
Balance is accomplished when people feel
satisfied about both their personal life and
their paid occupation. It mutually benefits
the individual, business and society when a
persons personal life is balanced with his or
her own job.
Trajectory
The obsession with being busy can be seen in
the way the work ethic has invaded childhood:
children must be kept busy at all times is the
prevailing wisdom.
Researchers in Scotland have recently
identified a syndrome that has been called
Busy Lifestyle Syndrome. This syndrome is
triggered by our busy lifestyles, where we
are bombarded with too much information,
causing information overload. The
consequences are that attention spans and
concentration levels are going down and
memory loss is getting common and affecting
younger people.
A busy lifestyle also affects peoples diets.
Research shows that consumers are moving
away from traditional meals toward quick,
convenient foods helping to fuel healthy
growth in the global snack foods market.
74
A fairly recent trend is Downshifting.

Downshifting is a behavior or trend in which
individuals seek to simplify their lives in order
to escape from the rat race and obsessive
materialism. It reduces the stress, overtime
and psychological expense and emphasizes
an improved balance between leisure and
work by focusing life goals on personal
fulfillment and relationship building instead
of the all-consuming pursuit of economic
success.
Transnational migration flows shape societies

future character. This has always been the
case. Households in the West are increasingly
multi-ethnic. In big cities, their multi-cultural or
cosmopolitan nature is more accepted. In the
periphery, multi- ethnicity causes suspicion
and fear. Nonetheless, such cultural tensions
are not always consistent and might be more
about clashing value systems; there has been
almost no problem with the introduction
of Islamic banking systems into European
countries, but there is widespread aversion to
the Islamic practice of arranged marriages.
Multi-ethnic society
Concept
Forced mixture or co-existence of ethnically

different populations might be the reason
for the outbreak of nationalistic and racist
tendencies, which, over the years, can grow
strong enough to seriously threaten or even
destroy a multi-ethnicity society. Debate in
several European countries has recently
culminated in, governments declaring the
multi-cultural society dead and that a new
approach was needed.
Multi-ethnic societies, in contrast to monoethnic societies, integrate different ethnic

groups, irrespective of differences in culture,
race and history, under a common social
identity larger than one nation in the
conventional sense.
All cities and most towns can be regarded as
multi-ethnic societies.
Many nations that today are considered
ethnically homogeneous, such as Japan, have
their origins in a complex process of ethnic
integration.
Trajectory
However, as the populations age in the in

high-income countries, their workforce levels
will decline and the vacuum will need to be
filled by immigrants. Tightening of immigration
flows challenges growth prospects in Europe
and the US.
A precondition to the success of a multiethnic society is a common (or overlapping)

language. Even in the European Union, English
is the lingua franca for business and scientific
exchange.
Even more important than a common
language is an atmosphere of tolerance and
understanding.
Urbanization
Concept
Urbanization is the physical growth of urban
areas as a result of global change.
Urbanization is also defined by the United
Nations as movement of people from rural
to urban areas with population growth
equating to urban migration. The United
Nations projected that half of the worlds
population would live in urban areas at the
end of 2008. Urbanization is closely linked
to modernization, industrialization and the
sociological process of rationalization.
Urbanization occurs naturally from individual
and corporate efforts to reduce time and
expense in commuting and transportation,
while improving opportunities for jobs,
education, housing and transportation.
People move into cities to seek economic
opportunities.
A major contributing factor is known as
rural flight. In rural areas, often on small
family farms, it is difficult to improve ones
standard of living beyond basic sustenance.
Industrialization of agriculture has reduced the
size of the rural labor market.
Currently there are around 400 cities with

more than 1 million citizens. Globally the
number of people living in large cities will
increase.
The number of megacities, cities with more
than 10 million inhabitants, is also increasing.
There were only two megacities in the world
in 1950. By 1975, the number of such cities
had grown to four; by 2000 to eighteen. The
United Nations expects twenty-two megacities
worldwide by 2015, of which sixteen will be
in developing countries, including the cities
around the Pearl River Delta home to
Chinas manufacturing center and currently
accounting for 10% of the Chinese economy.
There are plans for massive infrastructural
projects to connect these cities, thus creating
a new city would encompass a country the
size of Switzerland.
Urbanization and the development of large
cities pose massive challenges in areas of
governance and government planning, public
health, sustainability (cities create 75% of
CO2 emissions and need massive amounts
of water), crime (due to slum conditions);
infrastructure, housing and mobility and
economic development.
There are also many social-cultural impacts

of urbanization: cities have a big impact on
their surrounding rural areas; the mass media
depict city life as superior; it dominates what
is deemed to be the standard language;
better services are received in the city due
to its wealth; the fertility rates in cities are
usually lower than in rural areas due the cost
of children, food and living space; as a city
grows, the cost of housing and infrastructure
also grows, combined with the fact that the
number of people competing for jobs is more
than jobs available, unemployment, drug
abuse, crime and homelessness also increase.
In the developed world there is a special
consequence for the rural areas, they are
becoming leisure centers. Second residences
are becoming more popular, either in the
home country or abroad. In countries such
as Greece, Italy, France and Spain, between 10
and 15 percent of housing stock is comprised
of second homes.
In cities, social mobility is possible. People,

especially the elderly, are often forced to move
to cities where there are doctors and hospitals
that can cater for their health needs.
Trajectory
Humanity is rapidly urbanizing; the size
and number of cities will continue to grow,
particularly in the developing world. It is
estimated that up to 80% of the worlds
population will be living in urban areas by
2050.
75

in Detail: Economic
Rise of the
Entreployee
Shifting Centres of
Economic Activity
Venture
Philanthropy
Shift to Knowledge-Intensive Industries

Competition for Natural Resources
and Alternative Energy Sources
Greening Business
Back-Shoring
Ubiquitous Access
to Information
Industry Consolidaton
Cyber Threats
Economic Volatility
Stakeholder Power
Peer-to-Peer Trading
Knowledge Process
Outsourcing
Global Consumer
Markets
Micro-Segmentation
of Market Place
Global Labour &
Talent Market
Multi-Currency
Monetary
System
De-Commoditization
Burning issues
76
Maturing issues
Emerging issues
Back-shoring
Trajectory
Concept
Global trade may slow down and become

local trade as transportation costs of
resources, workers and goods increases.
Global resources, notably energy, may
become the object of increasing resource
nationalism. The shape of conflict around
trade may take the form of protectionism on
the basis of regional blocs.
Back-shoring is a countertrend for

Western companies that have off-shored
manufacturing facilities to cheap labor cost
countries. Technological advancement
makes it possible to produce goods or deliver
services with less people, so that labor costs
become less relevant. High transportation
costs have made it more economical
to back-shore production activities and
automate them, thus eliminating labor and
transportation costs.
There is also movement in terms of deoffshoring of manufacturing towards the
USA. As the purchase power parity of the US
dollar falls, and unemployment is large in the
USA, the economic balance in terms of Total
Cost of Ownership between manufacturing
in Southeast Asia and manufacturing close
to home is tilting towards bringing some
production back to the USA.
The high costs associated with quality control
over production in China, the difficult response
times for replacing a defective production
lot and the extended management attention
needed to offshore manufacturing are already
making some companies return to local
production.
On a political level, the things that make
a country, or region, special need to be
identified and preserved for electoral
purposes. This inevitably spills over in to the
economic outlook of counties and regions.
In a world of commodities and

homogenization, companies are increasingly
called upon to produce items closer to
individual customer specifications, and
producers look for ways to differentiate their
products in mature, saturated markets. In
the West, developed manufacturing could
therefore shift to a model of distributed
manufacturing based on smaller, localized
plants affording greater product customization
of products. Manufacturing production would
take place in modules that are put together in
small, fully automated assembly lines close to
the consumer. Details can be adapted to meet
individual tastes, and no expensive and time
consuming transportation is needed.
Competition for natural resources

and alternative energy sources
Concept
As long-term economic growth accelerates,
especially in emerging markets such as
the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and
China), and despite the current economic
downturn, we are using natural resources
and energy sources at increasing rates. This
leads to increasing competition over needed

resources such as oil, water, energy, grain and
raw materials.
What is the best way to cope with the
strong volatility of demand and related price
fluctuations? How can economic growth and
sustainable environmental demands co-exist
in the longer term?
Trajectory
Demand for oil is projected to grow by 50%
in the next two decades. Without significant
new discoveries or radical innovations,
supply is unlikely to keep up. There are similar
surges in demand across a broad range of
commodities. In China, for example, demands
for copper, steel, aluminum, wood and coal
have increased in the past decade.
The worlds resources are increasingly
strained. Water shortages, in particular, will
be the key constraint to growth in many
countries. Fights for water, and more conflicts
over valuable territory, then religion, will
dominate. The worlds atmosphere will require
dramatic shifts in human behavior to keep it
from being depleted.
Recent climate change conferences and new
legislation from the European Commission
have reasserted environmental issues on the
economic agenda. Reactions to the economic
crisis also lean to alternative sources, amongst
others, to reduce oil dependency.
77
Chinese and other Asian investments in

Australia, Latin America and Africa can be
seen against the backdrop of competition
for natural resources, as part of a strategy of
securing direct access to these resources.
Prices for raw materials may have been
relatively low recently, due to the economic
downturn, but as the economy of the world
recovers, prices in critical resources such as oil
are already rising rapidly.
The intensification of the usage of alternative
energy schemes may alter the power balance
between stakeholders on the planet. For
example, the usage of lithium may go up
exponentially with the advent of electric cars,
making other countries rich and powerful: the
new Middle East. The same rationale is true
for solar and wind energy for countries with
large sun-bathed areas or topologies favoring
wind usage.
Cyber threats
Concept
Computer hacking represents an increasing
threat, especially for large organizations.
Attacks can come from amateur hackers,
terrorist organizations, government agencies
and competitors (industrial espionage).
Exposition is difficult to measure and countermeasures are difficult to partner with business
imperatives such as agility and openness.
According to McAfee, an internet security
company, corporations around the world
face millions of cyber-attacks a day. Most
attacked sectors include industry, academia,
government, financial institutions, power grids,
physical infrastructures as well as the military
in the air, land, maritime and space domains.
Classified information that is not handled
securely can be intercepted and even
modified, making espionage possible from
any side of the world.
78
Trajectory
Potential targets in internet sabotage include
all aspects of the Internet, from the backbones
of the Web to the Internet Service Providers,
to the varying types of data communication
mediums and network equipment of
companies and individuals. Most vulnerable
are enterprise information systems and
databases. Not long ago Sony announced a
significant security breach of its PlayStation
Network, used by 75 million players the world
over. e-mails, logins, possibly credit card details
may all have been compromised.
Electrical grids and telecommunication
systems are also deemed vulnerable,
especially due to current trends in automation.
The United States Department of Homeland
Security works with industry to identify
vulnerabilities and to help industry enhance
the security of control system networks,
ensuring that security is built in as the next
generation of smart grid networks are
developed.
Military activities that use computers
and satellites for coordination are at risk
of equipment disruption. Orders and
communications can be intercepted or
replaced. Also transportation infrastructures
are vulnerable to disruption.
De-commoditization
Concept
Commoditization is a process that transforms
the market for a unique, branded product
into a market based on undifferentiated
price competition. In economic terms, the
market changes from one of monopolistic
competition to one of perfect competition.
Consumers usually benefit from
commoditization, since perfect competition
usually leads to lower prices.
Branded producers often suffer under
commoditization, since the value of the brand
(and ability to command price premiums) can
be weakened. This is why branded producers
are keen to de-commoditize their offerings.
Trajectory
More and more products and services
today are starting to look like commodities
because of Chinafication (copying), emerging
technologies, increasing global competition
and the increasing expectations of consumers.
Products can be placed on a continuum of
evolution, classified thus:
Financial institutions are also at risk: security

breaches have already gone beyond stolen
credit card numbers and fraud transactions on
the stock markets.
How that kind of scenario will unfold is not
clear yet: there are at least three possibilities
according to the World Bank. However, there
is also broad consensus (but not universal
agreement) that a multiple reserve system
could be more unstable. The reason is quite
clear: if the authorities managing reserves
believe one currency will weaken, they
will shift out of that currency, fulfilling their

expectation. This also applies to private
speculation.
``
Commodity: charge for undifferentiated,
look-alike (raw) materials.
``
Goods: charge for distinctive tangible items
(packaged products, final goods).
``
Services: charge for the activities you
perform (on top of the delivery of products).
``
Experience: charge for the feeling
customers get because of engaging you
(on top of delivery of services).
``
Transformation: charge for the benefit
customers (or guests) receive as a result of
spending that time.
Economic volatility
Concept
An economic downturn relates to a period
of reduced economic activity, also known as
a business cycle contraction. In economics,
the term recession describes the reduction
of a countrys GDP for at least two successive
quarters of a year. The last downturn began
with a slowdown in the US housing market
in 2006. Homeowners, many of whom could
only barely afford their mortgage payments
when interest rates were low, began to default
on their mortgages. Default rates on subprime high-risk loans to clients with poor or
no credit histories rose to record levels. The
impact of these defaults was felt across the
financial system, resulting in the collapse of
financial institutions all over the world and
the general widespread economic crisis, from
which some say we are slowly recovering,
while others forecast a new second dip in
economic terms.
Volatility is about the swings from boom to
bust. Before the last recession economic
volatility seemed to have been greatly
reduced. In the past year we have seen
massive swings in the stock markets, going up
and down in magnitudes that seemed hardly
thinkable before.
Trajectory
Although no completely reliable predictors
exist, a significant stock market drop often
precedes the beginning of a recession.
Dramatic changes in unemployment rates
also often indicate a recession. This has
certainly been true of the current economic
crisis. Strategies for moving an economy
out of a recession vary depending on which
economic school policymakers follow. While
Keynesian economists may advocate deficit
spending by governments to spark economic
growth, supply-side economists may suggest
tax cuts to promote business.
Capital investment. Laissez-faire economists

may simply recommend that governments
let natural market forces play themselves out.
Greater controls and international regulation is
a possible outcome of the current economic
crisis.
The world was slowly recovering, led by the
emerging markets (China), with much of the
growth in the Western economies (until this
point) stemming from massive government
stimulus packages.
The wider economic climate is now quite
different, with a two-speed world likely to
persist into the medium term buoyant
growth in the East and in emerging
economies whilst most of the Western
economies are projected to show weak
growth constrained by sovereign risk, debt
leveraging, the Euro crisis, volatility in the
financial markets and unemployment.
Whatever the case, the effects of the last crisis
are likely to be felt for a decade.
Global consumer markets

Concept
As soon as the last economic downturn
subsides, it is expected that a billion new
consumers will enter the global consumer
marketplace as revived economic growth in
emerging markets pushes them beyond the
threshold level of $3,700 in annual household
income a point when people generally begin
to spend on discretionary goods. This figure
will continue to grow.
Trajectory
For the first time since the industrial age
began the 5.4 billion people living in emerging
economies today account for more than half
of global GDP, on a purchasing power parity
basis. This share of the global economy is set
only to grow in the future. The IMF expects
developing markets to grow by an average
rate of 5.3% through to 2014, dwarfing the
1.3% growth rate expected for the advanced
economies. Also, the developing economies
of today often have lower debt levels, higher
foreign exchange reserves and they make
up over 82% of the worlds population
representing around 5.4 billion potential
consumers with an estimated combined
purchasing power of over $18 trillion.
Over the next several decades, the number
of people considered to be in the global
middle class is projected to swell from 440
million to 1.2 billion, or from 7.6% of the worlds
population to 16.1%, according to the World
Bank. Most of the new entrants will come from
China and India.
Consumers, wherever they live, will
increasingly have information about and
Chinas growing consumer class will continue
to compete more intensively with Western
consumers for needed resources such as oil,
water, energy, wood, grain, manufacturing
raw materials and luxury good items such as
expensive German automobiles. Although
there are some protectionist measures being
taken, which focus on boosting internal
consumption, it is expected that this is just
temporary.
79
Global labor and talent market

Concept
Despite growing unemployment numbers,
ongoing shifts in labor and talent will be far
more profound than migration of jobs to
low-wage countries. The shift to knowledgeintensive industries continues to highlight
the importance and scarcity of well-trained
talent, mainly because of the ageing society.
Essentially, this is about moving jobs and
mobility of talent.
Trajectory
The increasing integration of global labor
markets is opening up vast new talent
sources. The number of university-educated
young professionals in developing countries
(33 million) is more than double the number in
developed ones. At the same time, geography
will become irrelevant as highly skilled workers
become more mobile.
This means that companies will hire globally
and workers will move internationally to follow
opportunities. It also means that jobs can
exist in one location while the worker is in
another. Global labor and talent strategies will
become as important as global sourcing and
manufacturing strategies.
Greening business
Concept
The concept of, and discussion on, the carbon
footprint originates from the green movement
and has been on the political agenda for
some time. It has recently been picked up by
economists as well, and not just because of
rising energy costs.
A carbon footprint is the total set of GHG
(greenhouse gas) emissions caused directly
and indirectly by an individual, organization,
event or product. The carbon footprint of
an individual, a nation or an organization is
measured by undertaking a GHG emissions
80
Industry consolidation
assessment. Once the size of a carbon

footprint is known, a strategy can be devised
to reduce it.
Concept
Trajectory
The mitigation of carbon emissions through
the development of alternative energy
sources, such as solar or wind energy,
represents one way of managing the problem.
A carbon footprint can be efficiently and
effectively reduced by undertaking a number
of measures:
``
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to accurately
determine the current carbon footprint.
Industry consolidation refers to the mergers

or acquisitions of many smaller companies
into much larger ones within specific sectors.
An acquisition, also known as a takeover, is
the buying of one company (the target) by
another. A merger is similar, but with two
companies coming together with equal status.
Such actions are commonly voluntary and
involve stock-swap or cash payment to the
target.
Trajectory
``
Identification of hotspots in terms of
energy consumption and associated CO2
emissions.
Economies of scale: reducing duplication of

departments or operations, thus lowering cost.
``
Where possible, changing to another
(renewable) energy source such as wind
turbines, solar panels, or even nuclear
power, however controversial this might be.
Increased revenue/market share: absorbing

a major competitor increases power to set
prices.
``
Optimizations of energy efficiency and, thus,
reduction of CO2 emissions and reduction
of other GHG emissions contributed from
production processes.
Cross-selling: for example, a bank buying

a stock broker could then sell its banking
products to the stockbrokers customers.
``
Identification of solutions to neutralize the
CO2 emissions that cannot be eliminated
by energy-saving measures.
Whatever the case, more and more
businesses are going out of their way to
show their green face to the public. On the
other hand, the vast majority of businesses
are only doing what they absolutely need to
do in order to comply with regulations and
reporting standards. Green is still seen as a
cost and not an investment. It is just part of
the license to operate.
However, in a recent survey for the World
Economic Forum, 64% of CEOs said they
are sensing a shift in consumer preferences
towards environmentally and socially
responsible businesses, underscoring that
consumers perceive value in a companys
reputation.
Synergy: better use of complementary

resources.
Geographical or other diversification:
smoothing earnings results, which, over the
long-term, smooths the stock price of an
organization.
Vertical integration: companies acquire part of
a supply chain and benefit from the resources.
The near collapse of the financial system
and the ensuing economic downturn could
accelerate this process. Stock prices and
company valuations are relatively low now
so acquisitions and mergers are cheap. As
economic recovery starts, companies will feel
confident enough to start new acquisitions.
The acquisition and mergers market is already
picking up.
On the other hand it is also something of a

mixed bag in the financial sector one could
say there is de-consolidation looming. As
failed banks are broken up, discussion is taking
place on the subject of prohibiting particular
services taking place within a single company.
As many financial institutions have proven
to be too complex, and are judged too big to
fail, even outright splitting up of the corporate
giants is on the table.
Knowledge Process Outsourcing

Concept
Unlike traditional business process
outsourcing initiatives, Knowledge Process
Outsourcing (KPO) involves knowledgeintensive business processes that require
significant domain expertise, analytic
skills, and judgment and decision-making
capabilities.
The goal is to deliver value by providing
superior enterprise decision-making as
opposed to cost-saving alone.
Trajectory
The KPO industry is projected to grow to
about $17 billion in 2013-14, with India to
account for approximately 59% of the global
KPO industry. This is a slower development
than was predicted in earlier years.
Banking, finance, securities, and insurance
(BFSI) research and analytics services; legal,
paralegal and Intellectual Property (LPO)
services and publishing are more than
average growth areas.
Data management, search and analytics
services; translation and localization services
and architectural services are laggards.
Process transparency is a major barrier to
using KPO services. Many organizations dont
track which decisions are made by whom
carefully, relying extensively on informal

social processes and soft skills. It is unclear
how much using KPO would disrupt existing
operations in these cases.
However, requirements such as SarbanesOxley, and radical transparency movements
like full-cost accounting, shareholder activism,
eco-labels and moral purchasing, have tended
to require organizations to be more explicit
about when decisions are made and by
whom.
A fully developed service economy enables
KPO by treating all functions as services, as
do more technical trends such as Service
Oriented Architecture, enterprise application
integration and teleworking: it is easier to
outsource a job if it is already being performed
outside the head office.
Across the spectrum, KPOs are emphasizing
value addition and value creation rather than
lower costs and labor arbitrage opportunities.
The emphasis will shift from I can save
you money because of cheaper labor to
I can save money by doing it smarter and
increasing productivity. This trend will take
offshoring and outsourcing from the discrete
provision of varied services at a lower cost to
a more holistic delivery of integrated services
that create value for the buyer.
Customers are becoming ever more

differentiated in their lifestyles and interests,
with smaller and more specialized groups
responding to more narrowly-targeted
commercial messages, often through
social media. Discussion forums or blogs,
for example, are spaces where people can
communicate and socialize in ways that
cannot be replicated either off-line or by any
other interactive means.
Trajectory
Enterprises that traditionally offered a broad
range of products or services now face
specialized competitors who provide more
specific, targeted solutions, often in new
ways and at lower prices. The customary
one size fits all packages are losing appeal as
customers increasingly cherry-pick offerings.
Enterprises need to develop more focused
value packages to reach smaller groups of
customers sharing more specialized clusters
of preference, focusing on a few areas.
Web sources are threatening the one-stop
shopping premise of information and
knowledge enterprises such as educational
institutions, publishers, associations and
advisory services. Customer loyalty is less of a
priority as they compete for customers on an
item-by-item basis.
Micro-segmentation of the
marketplace
Businesses are losing the power to dictate the

communications agenda because:
Concept
``
The fragmentation of media and audiences,
and the accompanying reduction
of audience size, have reduced the
effectiveness of the traditional top-down,
mass interrupt and repeat advertising
model.
Micro-segmentation of the marketplace refers

to how companies engage with customers,
and customers with companies, a brand or
with one another.
Micro-segmentation means that monolithic
markets, customer segments and product
categories are continually breaking up into
smaller clusters of demand and preference.
``
Consumers are increasingly speaking their
minds. With the power for circulation and
permanence, businesses lose power.
81
``
Brand loyalty is decreasing. Thanks to
the Web, lower entry barriers and the
geographical widening of markets have
increased competition. With lower switching
costs, easier access to information,
increased choice and commoditization,
customer loyalty is hard to maintain.
Multi-currency monetary system

Concept
As the 21st century unfolds and the world
is recovering from the financial crisis, the
growing power of emerging markets is
clearing the way for a world economy that is
more multipolar.
As investors and multinationals increase
their exposure to fast-growing emerging
economies, international demand for
developing economy currencies will grow,
making way for a global monetary system
with more than one dominant currency.
Establishing a multi-currency international
reserve currency system is seen by some as
an inevitable outcome of shifting economic
power, and for others as a way to maintain the
stability of the international financial system.
Such a global multi-currency reserve system
could include the US Dollar, Euro, Renminbi,
Yen, Pound Sterling and other currencies.
Trajectory
Throughout history, paradigms of economic
and financial power have been drawn and
redrawn according to the rise and fall of
states with the greatest capability to drive
global growth and provide stimulus to other
countries.
Over the past decades, the world has
witnessed emerging economies rise to
become a powerful force in international
production, trade and finance. Developing
countries share of international trade flows
has risen from 30% in 1995 to an estimated
45% in 2010, and it is projected to rise even
82
more. Much of this rise has been due to

an expansion of trade among developing
countries.
famous C2C marketplaces and classified

platforms.
More than one-third of foreign direct

investment in developing countries originates
in other developing countries. Emerging
economies have also increased their
financial holdings and wealth. Emerging and
developing countries now hold two-thirds of
all official foreign exchange reserves. This is a
reversal in the pattern of the previous decade
when the developed economies held twothirds of all reserves.
Peer-to-peer trading
Concept
People are increasingly buying and selling
directly to and from one another using online
trading systems (platforms). These platforms
allow individual members to complete
financial transactions by using an auction-style
process that lets members offer used or new
products and services for a specific amount or
on a best offer basis. Members are typically
rated by their risk level, based on transaction
history. Members can browse for other people
based on various demographic data.
Peer-to-peer (P2P) trading does not use thirdparty banking institution intermediaries and
members are not always looking for great
margins. This means that selling prices, rates
and terms are often much more favorable for
the buyer.
P2P trading has also moved into financial

services. A good example of this is the growth
of money lending sites where individuals lend
each other money and set their own rates.
The fast development of this market is due to
a combination of the following trends:
``
Networking infrastructure and highbandwidth penetration are reaching a
level that allows social networks and C2C
marketplaces.
``
Limited physical storage space in the
dense urban environment is preventing
consumers from keeping goods they only
occasionally use.
``
Eco-awareness and increasing
environmental concerns of consumers
is leading to less wasted resources and
overconsumption.
``
Consumers are more and more becoming
users (renters), rather than owners, of
goods.
``
A knock-on effect of the economic
downturn is that people are more disposed
to selling items, and/or buying second-hand
goods.
Some are even arguing that we are
witnessing the rise of a sharing economy
or collaborative consumption. The concept
is simple: access to goods and skills is more
important than ownership of them.
Trajectory
Rise of the entreployee
P2P marketplaces are an evolution of the

traditional business-to-business (B2B) and
business-to-consumer (B2C) marketplaces.
B2B or B2C marketplaces have been in
operation since 2000.
Concept
P2P trading platforms are often referred to as

eBay-like mechanisms for goods, or Craigslist
for rentals, as these two services are the most
Entreployee is the term used to describe a

new type of employee who markets his or her
working abilities on his or her own initiative
and who, although formally a dependent
employee, bears the risks that have
traditionally been those of entrepreneurs.
On the one hand this can be said to stem from

corporate management being increasingly
forced to reduce costs and increase flexibility
and innovation. On the other, it can be seen as
the increased promiscuity of employees that
do not want to be tied down to one employer
for life, and an increasing amount of selfemployed workers.
Trajectory
Whilst self-employment is unlikely to replace
employment as the dominant logic of
exchange in the labor market, the nature
of employment will continue to evolve.
Increasing dependence on technology could
stimulate further specialization and the
requirement for complex skills in the labor
market.
The costs to employers of recruiting skilled
workers may decline as the presence of
internet recruitment tools continues to
grow, speeding up search and selection.
Some companies are starting to unbundle
work in radical ways, using technology to
crowdsource labor and divvy it up into microjobs, which can be farmed out to unaffiliated
masses of remote workers.
standard working patterns is likely to increase

(flexible hours, multiple jobs and working
from home) within the scope of employment
contracts.
Shifting centers of economic

activity
Concept
Centers of economic activity will continue
to shift profoundly not just regionally, but
also globally. The world has embarked on a
massive realignment of economic activity as
a consequence of economic liberalization,
technological advances, capital market
developments and demographic shifts.
Trajectory
Although there will undoubtedly be shocks
and setbacks, this realignment will persist.
Today, Asia (excluding Japan) accounts for 13%
of world GDP, while Western Europe accounts
for more than 30%. Within the next 20 years,
the two will nearly converge.
The United States will still account for the

largest share of absolute economic growth for
the next few years. The whole world has been
hit hard by the economic downturn and so,
relatively speaking, things will largely stay the
same.
Shift to knowledge-intensive
industries
Concept
Products and processes are too easily
replicated; automation of simple tasks
and transactions is widespread. There is
increasing competition from emerging (and
low-cost) countries. Organizations will need to
differentiate themselves through knowledge
relationships with partners and customers.
Trajectory
Knowledge production itself is growing:
worldwide patent applications, for example,
rose between 1990 and 2004 at a rate of 20%
annually.
Some industries and functions (manufacturing

and IT services, for example) will shift even
more dramatically.
The hunt for competitive advantage will focus

increasingly on improving the productivity
and performance of knowledge workers.
Training and retaining workers, on the other

hand, may become increasingly difficult
and costly. There is a growing freelance
workforce, which is made up of people who
see themselves not as having a single job so
much as having several at once.
There will also come a point where emerging

markets like China and India are no longer
just sources of cheap supply and demand.
They will increasingly become global hubs
for capital and important centers of upstream
innovation.
Members of the new generation (Generation

Y) are also increasingly seeing themselves
as entrepreneurs and only secondarily as
employees working for a company. This group
also demands that work is both enjoyable and
inspiring.
This shift derives from two key sources:

sustained increases in oil and commodity
prices have generated windfall profits for the
Gulf States and Russia; and relatively low labor
costs combined with certain government
policies have generated high profits in Asia,
particularly in China and India.
One of the new battle grounds seems to

be the struggle to keep the knowledge
advantage in connection with clean or lowcarbon energy technologies. The developed
countries are taking measures ensure
supremacy in clean technology; they do not
want the technology that will transform the
way we use energy to be invented abroad.
(Barack Obama, 2010).
The decline in loyalty to a single employer

could continue as a result of both flexibility in
the labor market and changing attitudes and
preferences amongst workers. Uptake of non-
This is, however, not just the story of the rise

of Asia. The shifts that we are seeing within
regions are as significant as those that we are
seeing between regions.
Competitive struggles between knowledgeintensive enterprises are being fought

increasingly on two fronts (the legal battlefield
and in the marketplace) as the creators,
producers, publishers, distributors and
consumers of intellectual property-based
products pursue their interests. High-profile
lawsuits and legislation have highlighted this.
83
Stakeholder power
Concept
Firms are increasingly influenced by the views
and concerns of stakeholders anyone that
their business impacts. This includes anyone
in the wider ecosystem that is impacted by
the company: customers, anyone in the value
chain and societies local to their business sites.
With the connectivity and tools of the
Internet enabling individuals to express
their viewpoints, and a growing trend of
individuals listening to their peers rather than
marketing messages, firms must be wary
of their reputation on the Internet and that
this reputation is largely in the hands of their
stakeholders.
Trajectory
Connectivity and participation will only grow
and brand reputation will be influenced more
and more by individual stakeholders. People
expect to be listened to. If they feel ignored,
they now have a medium through which to
express their views.
Further, this is a growing opportunity for firms
to better understand the needs and wants
of their stakeholders. In doing so they can
increase market share by building a strong
and wholesome reputation of trust and
openness.
Ubiquitous access to information

Concept
Information is increasingly available. The most
obvious manifestation of this trend is the
rise of search engines such as Google, which
make an almost infinite amount of information
available instantaneously. The increasing
adoption of 3G smartphones (such as Apples
iPhone, Android) is making access to anytime/
anywhere information a reality. Access to
information has therefore become almost
universal.
84
Also, the recent US decision to make far more

information available, so that smallcos can
offer services based on it, is a real change.
instruments), and a desire for donors and

recipients to maximize quantifiable social
returns on investment.
Trajectory
Trajectory
Information is rapidly becoming a commodity.

Knowledge is becoming the new competitive
advantage. Consumers, wherever they live,
will increasingly have information about and
Climate change and public perception of the

causes and the economic downturn have
raised corporate responsibility and ethical
operations high on the agenda of corporate
decision-makers. Companies are cognizant
of their local and global responsibilities. This
awareness and motivation is rising within the
workforce, as is social activism.
Information-based enterprises will find

themselves increasingly challenged to move
beyond commoditized products and service
experiences to new levels of added value and
life enrichment through knowledge.
If information, for instance in the form
of content, is ubiquitous, it will be largely
valueless. Information is no longer scarce
and therefore it is not data, but knowledge
drawn from the clutter of information that will
become valuable.
Venture philanthropy
Concept
Venture philanthropy (also termed
philanthrocapitalism) is a system that bases
its approach to fulfilling philanthropic goals
on tried and tested concepts and techniques
from venture capital and traditional financial
investment. It typically focuses on mid- to
long-term partnerships, and investments
comprising financial, intellectual and human
capital.
The philosophy is the application of financial
investment techniques motivated by the
maximization of return on social investment.
This is not (necessarily) a monetary return:
the motivation for the investment being of a
principally philanthropic nature.
Mobilization and management of financial,

intellectual and human capital investment
requires increasingly sophisticated techniques.
Businesses seeking to maximize their positive
societal impact will require similar advisory
and management services as would be
expected with any venture capital investment.
There is significant potential to augment the
corporate responsibility agenda, providing
transparency and quantification of outcome
for philanthropic investments. Business
ethics, ethical offshoring and outsourcing
are also likely to be impacted. For example,
through creation of improved healthcare
and education schemes in areas of regional
development, to benefit and retain employees
through improved services.
Formation of partnerships, philanthropic
matchmaking, management and
measurement of investment, are all services
for which demand will rise.
Venture philanthropy is characterized by

partnership engagements, varying financing
techniques (grants, loans, structured financial
85

in Detail: Political
Burning issues
Maturing issues
Emerging issues
Transparency &
Accountability
Government Activism
Lean Government
E-Democracy
Hacktivism
Affordability of Social Security & Services

EU Integration
Service-Oriented
Government
Protectionism
Green Politics
Emerging
Powers
Privacy of
Information
E-Politics
86
Affordability of social security

and services
Concept
As the size of the workforce declines, funding
for healthcare and pension assistance will
shrink. Trends compounding this problem are:
an erosion of the private sectors willingness
to deliver defined healthcare and retirement
benefits to the majority of their employees,
longer life expectancy and rising healthcare
costs.
Trajectory
Governments will wrestle with various options,
from higher retirement ages to tax-free
income beyond the minimum retirement age,
but the fundamental choice is between higher
taxes and lower benefits.
The debt burden and large budget deficits
from financial and economic rescue packages
will have a major impact on public sector
spending in general. This has now turned
into a debt crisis. In some countries austerity
measures have to be taken immediately to
prevent financial collapse. Others will have to
take drastic measures in the near future. This
further compounds the affordability issue. In
several countries, debate is already under way
on the subject of raising the retirement age. As
a result of the slow recovery from economic
downturn, a lot people are still drawing on
unemployment benefits, putting further stress
on the fiscal position of many countries.
The problem is not confined to developed

economies. Many emerging- economy
governments must decide what level of social
services to provide to citizens in terms of
healthcare and retirement security, among
other services. Changing demographics of
a world where populations are constantly
shifting will make decisions of this kind even
more complex.
The adoption of private sector approaches is
likely to permeate into the provision of social
services.
E-democracy
Concept
E-democracy consists of (online)
communication media that give citizens some
limited ability for making leaders/politicians
responsible for their actions in the public
sphere.
It is about the adoption of electronic
technology in the existing or improved
democratic process.
E-democracy can focus on: an increase in
political process transparency; an extension of
citizens direct involvement and participation;
improving information and discussion that will
enhance forming of opinions.
There are of course strong links with e-politics
and hacktivism.
The use of online communication enables this

to operate at various levels: local communities,
nations and even internationally.
Trajectory
Throughout recent history citizens have used
the technological means at their disposal.
Just think of what print, the telegraph
and telephone did for transparency and
information provision.
that its accessibility grows in line with current
trends, the conduct of democratic politics
might increasingly be dominated by online
and other technology-enabled forms of
participation. It is also a natural extension of
Web 2.0 into the democratic arena.
With increased ease of access, citizens
may start to interact with their political
representatives (either in person at mass
deliberative events, or through mass online
referenda using computers and smart
phones) on a daily basis. Large numbers
would be able to register their opinions almost
instantaneously with very little effort.
It may revive the democratic process, but
also prompt debate about the nature of
democracy itself increasing pressure for
constitutional reform and the creation of new
outlets for participation in public life. Just think
of the role of Facebook and Twitter in recent
democratic movements in the Middle East.
87
During the 2011 G8 summit in the French

town of Deauville, amongst other things,
support was declared for the Internets role in
democratic movements:
The Internet has become the public arena for
our time, a lever of economic development
and an instrument for political liberty and
emancipation. Freedom of opinion, expression,
information, assembly and association must
be safeguarded on the Internet as elsewhere.
We commit to encourage the use of the
Internet as a tool to advance human rights
and democratic participation throughout the
world.
E-politics
Concept
E-politics is a form of direct democracy
that uses information and communication
technologies and strategies for political and
governance processes, and also cause-related
fundraising, community building, lobbying and
organizing. It can be used for governance of
local communities, nations and even function
internationally.
Democratic actors and sectors in this context
include governments, elected officials, the
media, political organizations and citizens/
voters.
no restriction on the potential for the public to

involve themselves in political processes (for
example, the public could vote in immediate
parallel with every parliamentary vote), politics
has no choice but to engage in this way.
It may revive the democratic process, but
also prompt debate about the nature of
democracy itself, increasing pressure for
constitutional reform and the creation of new
outlets for participation in public life.
Media, research agencies, NGOs, pressure/

lobby groups and the political establishment
itself all have a role to play here. With almost
88
A single market (or common market) is a

customs union with common policies on
product regulation and freedom of movement.
A union of all three factors of production (land,
capital and labor) and of enterprise (removing
the physical, technical and fiscal barriers) is
needed.
For both business and consumers, a single
market is a very competitive environment,
making the existence of monopolies more
difficult.
Principals of e-politics were successfully used

in, and formed a central part of, the Obama
presidential campaign. In other countries
governments and political parties are
following suit. The Dutch Prime Minister, for
instance, experimented with a special Twitter
hash tag that enabled citizens to directly
ask him questions about budgetary matters.
These question where then answered by
him personally in true Web 2.0 fashion: in
an internet video message addressing the
questions and the people who asked them.
Enlargement creates larger markets and

a bigger and more varied labor force.
This growth creates need for political and
organizational reform of the European Union.
The so-called EU Constitution failed to be
ratified by enough member states. The
Reform Treaty or Treaty of Lisbon (2007) has
now finally been ratified by all member states
and entered into force in 2009.
EU integration
Concept
The European Union is a single market with a
common trade policy, a common agricultural/
fisheries policy and a regional policy to assist
under-developed regions. Creating a single
market is the cornerstone of its introduction of
the Euro, adopted by sixteen member states.
Trajectory
that its accessibility grows in line with
current trends, the conduct of politics could
increasingly be dominated by online and
other technology-enabled forms of politics. It is
a natural extension of consumer Web 2.0 into
the political arena.
Trajectory
The current debt and financial crisis in

the southern region, particularly Greece,
has posed serious challenges and doubts
about the cohesion and future of European
integration. Some argue that this crisis could
mean the end of the Eurozone (or at least a
single one) while other argue that this crisis
will tend to push integration forward.
Emerging powers
Concept
EU integration is the process of political,

economic and, in some cases, social and
cultural integration of European states.
Integration is needed to truly operate as a
single market.
Since the end of the Cold War, states in Middle
and Eastern Europe have been applying for
membership. There are now 27 member
states.
Globalization is driving new dimensions of

power; its definition has extended far beyond
its military connotations to include economics,
resources, and technology. In terms of size,
speed and directional flow, the transfer of
global wealth and economic power is without
precedent in modern history.
Globalization is not only causing a relative

power shift among nation-states, but also
an increase in relative power of non-state
actors such as businesses, tribes, religious
organizations and criminal networks. A multipolar international system is slowly emerging.
This new global landscape is inherently
unstable; risks such as nationalism and
protectionism are rising. Historically, emerging
multi-polar systems are more unstable then
bi-polar or uni-polar systems.
Trajectory
Geopolitical instability is increasing as trust
in international institutions and the US is
decreasing. There are existing tensions
between old and new powers (for example,
between Japan and China, the US and
Russia, Brazil, India), as well as new countries
emerging as the global economy shifts East.
The current recovery from global economic
crisis will not stop the shift eastwards in fact,
the world is depending on China to be the
powerhouse of global economic recovery.
In the medium term, the US will stay the single
most powerful actor. Because of their growing
political and economic power, the emerging
powers will increasingly claim a high degree
of freedom in shaping their own political and
economic policies, instead of fully conforming
to Western norms. China has been creating
inroads and investing in new low-wage
countries in Africa and Latin America,
amongst other things, to secure direct access
to raw materials and energy.
The international agenda is also shaped by
issues such as the financial and economic
crisis, and global warming, which can only be
addressed by a multilateral approach. This
is a good example of the power shift that is
taking place: it was not the G7 or G8 countries
that came together to discuss measures
concerning the credit and economic crisis,
it was the G20. On September 25, 2009
its leaders announced that the group will
replace the G8 as the main economic council.

The Western supremacy in international
institutions such as the IMF is also being
challenged so as to reflect the growing role of
developing countries in the world economy.
There is also the realization in the US
government that the US cant go it alone.
China and the US are even being forced to
work together to combat the financial and
economic crisis; neither can afford a US debt
default.
There was concern that the economic crisis
would be an opportunity for Sovereign Wealth
Funds (SWF) to buy up many businesses in
the West. This is not materializing for most
of the emerging powers, except for China. It
has increased its spending, buying mining
interests from Australia to Canada and
looking for acquisitions that may give them
technology, big brands or market access. In
addition, Chinese companies have moved
into Europe and the US. Luxury textiles and
vineyards in Italy, electronics makers in France,
engineering in Germany and car makers in
Britain are only some of Chinas purchases.
Government activism
Concept
Government activism or intervention is any
action taken by a government, beyond the
basic regulation of its economy or society.
Intervention or activism can be aimed at
a variety of political, societal or economic
objectives, such as promoting economic
growth, increasing employment, raising
wages, raising or reducing prices, promoting
equality, or addressing market failures.
There is always some government activism
or intervention. Discussion mostly centers on
the balance between state and market forces.
It ranges from a laissez faire doctrine on the
one side, to a communist-planned economy
on the other.
Trajectory
Credit crisis, economic downturn, green
issues and health and safety are some of the
issues that seem to be leading to increased
government activism. Measures taken
by governments in reaction to the credit
crunch and economic downturn have really
brought the issue of government activism
or intervention to the forefront. We have
been witness to unprecedented government
interventions such as relief packages
for financial institutions, nationalizations,
economic stimulus packages and regulatory
intentions.
In discussions about the causes of the credit
crisis and ensuing economic downturn, it
is often argued that governments were not
active enough to start with, and that had they
been more active in regulating the markets
instead of relying too much on self-regulation,
the crisis would not have occurred or could
have been managed better. Governments
and states as a whole are taking a look at the
balance between the state and the market.
Radical plans to restructure the banking sector
itself have been discussed. Debate seems to
have tapered off somewhat, but is certainly
not gone. The existence of banks deemed
too big to fail (that required the intervention
of the state to save) is leading to the concept
of a new system in which these largest banks
either do not exist, or have their commercial
and merchant bank activities completely
separated. This debate in the financial sector
may be extended to other sectors where
players may at present be too big to fail.
According to a World Economic Forum report,
policy-makers must consider the unintended
consequences arising from regulation and
government interventions. The report argues
that the growth of unregulated and highly-
89
leveraged investment vehicles was in part

due to market participants activities being
designed to avoid regulations. In addition,
fears of impending overregulation that will
hinder growth. Allen Greenspan recently
argued that government activism is even
hampering economic recovery; it induces
a degree of uncertainty and crowds out
investments.
Green politics
Concept
Green politics or green ideology is the political
principle that places a great importance on
ecological and environmental goals, and on
achieving these goals through broad-based,
participatory democracy and consensual
decision-making. Greens claim their ideology
represents a fundamentally new way of
addressing societal and political problems. In
addition to ecological issues, green politics is
concerned with issues such as social justice,
civil rights and non-violence.
Trajectory
Green politics is increasingly emerging into
the mainstream, owing to the increasing
public consensus that we are seeing more
radical environmental shocks, crises in the
field of energy and resource supply, and a
growing awareness of the cost of inaction.
It might be possible to envisage Green
Government as being a government
based on a central ideology of resource
management, environmental protection and
sustainability.
Legislation and new (sustainability) reporting
and accounting requirements government
and companies is sure to follow. Large
companies in Europe have urged the
European Parliament to set more ambitious
targets: CO2 reductions greater than the origin
20% that was agreed.
90
Green Government seems to have been

boosted by the global economic downturn,
with the EU agreeing upon new tougher CO2
emission standards. It is often linked to plans
to combat the economic downturn, with many
of the economic rescue packages containing
investments in sustainable and clean projects
and technologies.
However, even though there is broad
consensus that action must be taken globally,
the UN climate summit in Copenhagen in
December 2009 and Cancun in 2010 closed
with a deal that many countries admit, falls
far short of the action needed to tackle
global warming. At the heart of this lack of
agreement lies a fundamental conflict of
interest between developed and developing
nations. In December 2011 (Durban) another
attempt will be made to come to global legally
binding climate change regime.
Investments in sustainable energy can also be
seen as the background to energy security,
ensuring that countries are not able to be held
to ransom by threats of energy supplies being
cut off. Putting in place carbon tariffs and
taxes (on goods that are produced in highcarbon countries or factories) is becoming a
reality.
Climate policy is increasingly, therefore, not
solely about the environment and ethical
responsibilities: it is becoming focused on
economics and competition around new
energy technologies owing to the importance
of keeping the technological lead in this area.
Nuclear power is a low-carbon source and for
that reason it was getting back in the picture
as a viable energy resource. The Fukushima
nuclear crisis has caused a varied response
overseas. While nations like Switzerland
and Germany have announced that they
will phase out their nuclear power plants,
other nations, such as China, India, South
Korea, France and the United States, remain
committed to nuclear power.
Hacktivism alternative
protestation
Concept
While NGO, political movements and lobbies
used to resort to traditional means of protest,
such as marches, political lobbying and
classical communication campaigns, new
forms of protestation are appearing. These
embrace new technologies and have adapted
to the evolution of society towards a culture
based on images, motos and emotions, rather
than on calm, argumented discussions. It is a
form of online protest. A hacktivist uses the
same tools and techniques as a hacker, but
does so in order to disrupt services and bring
attention to a political or social cause.
Those new movements use mediatized flash
mobs, electronic protests, powerful media
actions or techniques coming from hacking
to carry their messages in a very efficient
way. While used by rather small movements,
these techniques are gaining popularity in
the ecological movement (Greenpeace, Sea
Shepherds) and are used in particular in the
fight for more privacy or demands for more
transparency.
Whether hacktivism is a crime may be
debated. Opponents argue that hacktivism
causes damage, is very disruptive and should
be considered cybercrime. Others insist that
such an act is the equivalent of a protest and
is therefore protected as a form of free speech.
Trajectory
Hacktivism is said to be at least as old as
October 1989 when several US government
machines where penetrated by the antinuclear protestation worm. In the years
following there were notable attacks, such as
DDoS (Distributed Denial-of-Service), network
sit-ins, defacing and rerouting web pages,
stealing and leaking information (whistle
blowing most notably WikiLeaks).
Recently it is the scale, speed and ease in

which attacks can be organized that have
really changed. It is, for instance, the scale of
the WikiLeaks information release, the scale
and speed of the Denial-of-Service attacks by
supporters on organizations such as Visa and
PayPal and actions by the Anonymous group
that indicates governments and companies
are working in a new reality.
Documents and secret information are much
more accessible, transportable and sellable
than before. Growing connectedness and
automation will mean increased vulnerability
for anyone, everyone and all organizations.
Moreover, changes to politics and the
economy (such as the growth of single
issue politics, the escalation of rhetoric in
mainstream politics and the media, the
continued economic uncertainty and an
increasing willingness to resort to violent
protest) are indicators that this trend might
grow even further.
Organizations and governments will need
to review data security in new ways: both
from the hacktivism perspective and also the
criminal threat. There is a delicate balance
for organizations: they need to ensure that
their own responses to increased data
security needs do not hinder the exchange
and sharing of information in such a way as
to reduce their ability to compete and work
effectively.
Lean government
Concept
Whereas, in the past, discussions about
the size of government were split along
ideological lines, there now seems to be broad
consensus that government must become
smaller and less costly. Ideally, it would have
fewer rules, less bureaucracy and fewer public
servants.
A leaner government body must be more
effective this cannot just be about cutbacks.
Consequences of the economic and debt

crisis, however, give this term a whole new
meaning.
Trajectory
With the rising costs of pensions and
healthcare, it is imperative that government
expenditure is checked. Decreasing the
size of government is an obvious potential
contributor to this.
European Union fiscal policies (for example
the Euro) were meant to contribute to this,
with budget deficits being limited by member
states. However, to promote a speedy
economic recovery, restrictions have been
loosened temporarily.
Some countries started to take austerity
measures a couple of years ago, whereas
others, Greece in particular, are only taking
far-reaching actions now.
In addition to cutbacks, privatization and
outsourcing of non-core processes contribute
to limiting the size of government.
There are, however, signals that political
ambitions are somewhat contrary since
there is also more discussion and legislation
promoting government intervention in the
private sector. Massive economic stimulus
packages entail large-scale public programs
that will need to be administered, generating
more government activities. Shrinking of the
size of government under these conditions is
challenging.
Nevertheless, massive budget deficits
require equally massive cutbacks. In the past,
countries, such as the US and European
Union members, have kept expenditure up
to stimulate the economy, but today they are
being forced to implement drastic cutbacks
and immediate hard choices. All in all it
will take another ten years to get budgets
balanced back to where they were a couple
of years ago.
Privacy of information
Concept
Public concerns over security and terror
threats, and the increasing dominance of
e-communications, provide the ideal climate
for mass surveillance, creating ongoing
concerns over personal privacy.
But it is more than just this: there is a general
expanding volume of (potentially)sensitive
personal information held, not only in
government and business databases, but also
posted by people themselves (on Facebook
for instance). This is driving public concern
about privacy protection.
Trajectory
Information and images captured on CCTV,
loyalty cards, transactions (on the Internet
or face-to-face): Information about every
individual is stored on databases. These
databases are becoming more prevalent and
information more readily shared. Furthermore,
personal details are more readily shared
among government departments and there
may be a network of databases shared
between public and private bodies.
Mass surveillance is probably going to
increase. The introduction of national ID card
systems with biometric details, CCTV, behavior
tracking and license plate recognition systems
are likely.
There is tremendous public debate, both
within countries and between countries, when
it comes to privacy of information and the
fight against terror. A failed terrorist attack
in Detroit led to the introduction of body
scanners in airports bringing the debate into
the domain of really personal privacy.
The public is concerned about how much
is recorded about them in relation to their
financial and taxation affairs, their family and
medical history, employment records and
transactions with government agencies. They
91
are worried about the inconvenience and

damage that may result from information
being incorrect or out of date, and the danger
that their personal information will be misused,
wrongly disclosed, merged inappropriately
with other personal data or revived at a time
when it would be better buried or destroyed.
Privacy of information is not limited to official
data stores of personal information. Internet
identity theft continues to rise, as well as
the use of the Internet for organized crime.
Facebook users, for instance, are in many
cases rethinking how much information they
should provide when creating a page. There
are numerous examples of students being
refused University places after lecturers
scrutinized Facebook posts and pictures
about them. Will the next generation be
haunted in their adult lives by all the material
they are posting online today?
A recent survey showed that web surfers are
growing increasingly unconcerned about
a lack of online privacy. Instead focus has
shifted from interest with online privacy to
preoccupation with online reputation.
Protectionism
Concept
Protectionism is a policy of protecting
domestic industries and workers against
foreign competition by means of tariffs,
subsidies, import quotas and other such
restrictions or handicaps placed on the
imports of foreign competitors or, put
another way, the seeking of measures that
favor domestic industries and workers.
Protectionist policies have been implemented
by many countries despite the fact that
virtually all mainstream economists agree that
the world economy generally benefits from
free trade.
92
cement and other products, and imposed

a special tax on some foreigners who win
government procurement contracts.
There are two main types of protectionist

measures: tariff and non-tariff measures.
During the passage of GATT (General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), from the
post Second World War era until the early
1990s, many protectionist trade barriers fell.
In 1995, such trade protection was formalized
with the creation of the World Trade
Organization (WTO).
Protectionist measures can also be taken in

the financial arena. This includes pressure
on banks that have received government
investment to reduce foreign activities and
direct their funds to investments in their own
countries.
Trajectory
Finally, there is competitive currency

depreciation that makes a countrys exports
cheaper. This is as the basis of disagreements
with China, as the West believes it should
revalue the Renminbi (or Yuan). The complaint
is that Chinese exports are now artificially
competitive.
Throughout history, wars and economic

depressions (or recessions) have led to
increases in protectionism, while peace and
prosperity have tended to encourage free
trade. The dire straits of the current world
economy make calls for protectionism,
therefore, attractive to many. During the
G20 Summits after the start of the crisis,
the attending countries pledged to refrain
from new protectionist measures. They have
done pretty well so far; global trade is not
threatened and is still rising.
Environmental (or sustainability) protectionism

may also be seen as a trend in the future. We
might see it as a tariff imposed on products
that are not produced in a sustainable
fashion and are thus unfairly cheap, or as
stimulus packages for the development of
clean technologies that favor only certain
big companies. In an indirect way, therefore,
the development of electric cars may lead to
some form of protectionism.
This, however, does not mean that no

protectionist measures have been taken. The
WTO found that between October 2010 and
April 2011, the twenty G20 countries imposed
122 new restrictions (tariffs and antidumping
investigations), and the trend is rising
although these only impact 0.5% of imports.
However, it is unclear how this will develop

in the near future. There is an upward trend
with a slow recovery and the end of fiscal
stimulus packages is leaving communities and
industries foundering. It is not surprising that
there is a great deal of pressure on politicians
and government to do something.
There are also other more subtle kinds of

protection. As governments prop up failing
firms, they are subsidizing failing industries
to the detriment of competitors elsewhere.
They are also discriminating against foreign
companies since their subsidies are typically
just for national champions.
Related to this kind of protectionism is the
policy of buy national provisions within
the economic stimulus plans. The stimulus
package in America mandated that new
spending goes to domestic producers of steel,
It is also said that the current progression of

globalization and embedding of liberalization
in national laws and regional trade
agreements will defuse a lot of protectionist
pressures. Nowadays, many companies have
cross-border ownership and supply chains
that span the globe. Therefore, stopping trade
will not help as much as it did before and
possibly even hurt companies and citizens.
Service-oriented government
Transparency and accountability
Concept
Concept
Public organizations are struggling with

fundamental challenges. These are worsened
by budget constraints and rising citizen
demands, leaving public services in a position
where they are expected to do more with less.
In politics, accountability is an important

factor in securing good governance and,
thus, the legitimacy of public power. This also
increasingly holds true for private enterprise.
A couple of events have underpinned

(new) dimensions of transparency and
accountability:
Accountability differs from transparency in

that it only enables negative feedback after a
decision or action, whereas transparency also
enables negative feedback before or during a
decision or action.
``
WikiLeaks is shifting the boundaries of
government transparency.
Government services will be designed to meet

the needs of citizens and business.
Trajectory
Consumers of government services are
increasingly intolerant of both poor service
and higher taxes. The need to address this
issue will increase given that massive budget
deficits will require equally massive cutbacks.
The rules-driven, inflexible approach to
government is on its way out: 80% of
respondents in an American survey believe
that, in fifteen years time, their customers
(citizens and businesses) will place a higher
premium on personalization of service.
However, there are some differences between
countries on the level of urgency.
Trajectory
``
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill changed
the dialogue about government-company
accountability.
``
The popular uprisings in Arab countries
show the rising demand for accountability
based on increased information.
Accountability and transparency are used

synonymously with such concepts as
enforcement, responsibility, liability and other
terms associated with the expectation of
account-giving.
The public demand for transparency and
accountability is not confined just to politics
and government. It is also increasingly central
in discussions related to problems in the
administrative, managerial, marketing, legal,
professional, security and moral arenas.
The improvement of service delivery will help

governments to regain trust and improve the
legitimacy of government. To achieve this, a
drive towards service integration, a focus on
electronic service delivery (e-government)
and multi-channeling, the promotion of
deregulation and an increase in the power
given to street level civil servants, is required.
The credit crisis and ensuing economic crisis

has increased the need for transparency and
accountability as the lack of these in financial
institutions and products are seen as one of
its causes. Despite regulation of the financial
sector being in place prior to the crisis, it was
not enough to avert the problems. Tougher
regulation is likely.
On 28 December 2009, a new European

Union directive came into force for the
services industry. This directive obliges
government to serve these companies
electronically with one single point of contact.
Measures to increase transparency on an

international level are much debated, at least
for the financial system, and new rules on
transparency and accounting with regard
to Corporate Social Responsibility are not
unimaginable. Companies will eventually
be forced to give detailed account for all
environmental and social inputs in their
products. This means that systems must
As this e-government spreads and simple

processing tasks decrease, there will be
consequences for the type of employees and
skills public services need.
support tracking and auditing of new

regulations of all kinds.
93
CxO Agenda
in Detail
Mainstream
Early adoption
Adolescent
Emerging
SoLoMo
Green IT
Business /
IT Alignment
Big Data
IT/OT Convergence
Social Media
Downing in Information Death of E-Mail
Video
Sustainablity
Open Innovation
Emerging Markets Growth
Smart Mobility
Web Science
Carbon Footprint
Business Agility
Corporate Governance and Risk
Cloud Services
Servitization
Risk of Disruption
Consumer IT
Customer Demands
and Intimacy
Lean
Offshoring
Everywhere
Changes
Traceability
and Visibility
Finding and Retaining Talent
Ageing Workforce
Mobile Workforce
Now
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Legacy Risk
Management
Ideas Management
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Ageing workforce
Big Data
Concept
Concept
Baby-boomers, those born between 1946

and 1964, are starting to retire, but for
many continuation of work after the official
retirement age will be a financial necessity.
Bid Data describes how you get competitive

advantage from managing the new volumes
of data which will become a concern for every
knowledge company.
Impact
Data is no longer an asset in itself. We have

and we produce more data than we can
manage. The problem is the ability to get the
right data or to extract the right information
from the data.
A disproportionate percentage of senior

workers will be leaving their current positions
in the coming years, taking with them their
knowledge unless their company attempts to
elicit it to prevent increasing corporate risk.
Some industries will see a surge in the
number of older workers, with their workforce
spanning four generations. Managing older
workers who have historically tended to get
less training and performance management
presents challenges as they stay longer, and
their learning styles need to be considered
when introducing new technology if they too
are to adapt well.
We are witnessing an explosive growth of

the information that all facets of humanity
(business, government, social, personal) are
creating and processing. Recent reports
(How much information? by UC San
Diego) posts a figure of a global volume of
9,570,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes per
year, or in shorter form, 9.57 zettabytes, in
2008. Impressive a number as it is, it may well
seem trivial in the near future.
The increase in life expectancy is also causing

a huge impact on pension fund costs: In
the Netherlands, an increase in average life
expectancy of up to half a year added about
11 billion to the costs of the four biggest
pension funds in 2010.
This increasing demand for processing and

storage has a profound impact for ICT, both
technologically and commercially: as the
world gets more connected with more online
services and more sensors, even more data
will be produced and collected.
Traditional infrastructures and software

architectures are being overwhelmed, so new
approaches are being defined for the capture,
processing, storage and analysis of vast
quantities of information. Internet giants, such
as Amazon, Google and Facebook, are at the
forefront of this evolution, having developed
with their own proprietary platforms, tools
and techniques, which are now becoming
mainstream in other sectors/industries.
Impact
Big Data can be a nightmare for companies
to manage (Data Overload) but can also be
used to get valuable insights if that, frequently
unstructured, data can be processed into
meaningful information. This gives rise to the
concept of the Data-driven Organization,
which can take advantage of all the data
it holds as an asset, not only for internal
improvement, but to offer new products and
services to their customers. To do this they
need to overcome the technical challenges
inherent in the large volumes, and adapt to
the impending data deluge.
95
This also means adopting new skills and

processes to adapt to it. The data explosion
is evolving ICT in enterprises, with a wave of
change that encompasses:
``
New infrastructures and architectures to
manage the data lifecycle in unprecedented
volumes
``
New tools and techniques to extract value
from that data
``
Most importantly, the new mindset for a
Data-driven organization, which derives
value from data for new products and
services.
The result will be huge changes in
organizations, at strategic and operational
levels, and even in Human Resources. Hal
Varian, Googles Chief Economist has said I
keep saying the sexy job in the next ten years
will be statisticians. Those that manage to
access and effectively exploit big data will
wipe out those who dont.
Trajectory
This concept originated with data driving
offers to customers through, for instance,
loyalty cards. It has evolved to the
current position where social networking
recommendations from people are having
more impact than auto-recommended cookie
based ones. It will evolve into making the most
of others data, and open government data
may or may not spur the private sector to
release more data.
Business agility through IT

transformation
Concept
Being large and agile requires higher and
higher integration between business and IT.
The business/IT interface has to be optimized
appropriately for the business to meet the
often contradictory drivers of innovation,
resilience and value for money.
96
The agile business is a vision in which all of

this comes together to allow, say, the process
control of an ERP system with the flexibility of
a smartphone app.
This vision, and the enabling change, has been
very hard to deliver partly because of IT cost
and operational limitations, partly because
of the expectations and reputation of the IT
department.
``
People and culture
``
Information content
``
Business process
``
Technology and infrastructure.
Cloud computing is one of the technology
enablers for business agility: the dynamic
ecosystem of suppliers, partners and
customers, forming and reforming as the
business reacts to its changing environment,
can be effectively mirrored by an ecosystem
of Clouds. Cloud orchestration is the glue that
holds it all together across different service
providers.
However, drivers for the change, such as the

increasingly digitized nature of business and
the competition, are getting stronger. At the
same time, lower cost IT models, including
cloud, can free up cash for IT to make the
transformation.
Despite this, the complexity for larger
organizations is substantial, because
of technological, people, cultural and
organizational issues.
Business IT alignment
Concept
Much progress has been made over the years
but, despite the progress, the rule of thumb
persistently remains that the majority of IT
enabled business change still fails to deliver
whats needed at the expected time and cost.
Thats not to say there are not significant
successes, or indeed that the issues are
not overcome in the end, but where major
business change or cost reduction is needed,
the chances of failure still tends to outweigh,
by some margin, the chances of success.
The incentive is very large though: an MIT

2006 study from 649 firms compared
Staid with Agile firms and found the latter
introduced more new products, grew faster,
and had higher profit growth. In addition,
agile companies have lower IT costs. (The
Agility Paradox presented to the CIO Summit,
June 22 2006, Peter Weill, based on research
projects with Jeanne Ross and George
Westerman).
Impact
The IT enabled transformation of a business
requires IT leadership and business leadership
to work together in an increasingly strong
partnership.
This results from real improvements to
the business enabled by IT, which provide
the basis for growing confidence and an
increasingly strategic focus by the CIO and IT
department.
There are four aspects to take in account to

complete a successful IT Transformation, and
you need to consider all of them at the same
time, because all of them are interdependent.
Whats more, the world is getting more

complex, and CIO and IT functions are
becoming increasingly hard to understand for
the CEO, at the very time that IT is becoming
increasingly critical to business success. The
IT of the Web (IT version 2) is different to
the IT before the Web (IT version 1). Many
businesses are continuing to apply IT version
1 in an IT version 2 world, with harming
effects. Despite attempt after attempt, many
of the old issues about IT in business issues
persist, including IT seriously constraining
business change and still costing too much.
If things werent challenging enough, a new

set of external issues is emerging, some
cyclical, but others structural. These issues add
further to the plates of business management,
with several of them recurring across private
and public sectors.
Impact
Solving the problem requires management
practice to move away from methodologies
that worked in the 1950s towards new
concepts that are emerging. There is
increasing recognition that best practice
management and IT techniques do not
address the complexities and opportunities
brought about by the inter-related and interconnected world.
The new CIO is aided by emerging
management techniques founded in
Systems Thinking such as Leverage Points,
Cynefin and VPEC-T. These illuminate the
solution of complex problems in a way that
recognizes their complexity and avoids the
oversimplification needed previously. The New
CIO doesnt throw away the best practices, but
rather uses the next practices to inform their
use.
New CIOs also report that the next practice
approaches they adopt help in starting to
finally tackle some of the oldest problems with
IT in the business, often passed on from one
CIO to the next.
At the same time, new IT models such as
cloud are making it financially possible for IT
to break out of past constraints.
Carbon footprint
Concept
In future, organizations may have to include in
their annual reports the impact their business
is having on climate change, how they are
working to reduce this impact and justification
when the impact is large.
Today, legislation is still emerging and there
are disparate international approaches.
Attempts to bring in a carbon tax are being
pursued for the second time in Australia,
resulting in two thirds of the electorate
wanting a snap election on this issue. In the
UK, the CRC energy efficiency scheme has
registered nearly 3000 participants. Canada
was an early adopter of Carbon trading.
Impact
For most companies, the focus is now on
gathering information to report against the
rules and regulations. In the future it will
be being able to run the business whilst
minimizing carbon footprint. This requires a
faster feedback on the impact of decisions
and a better understanding of which activities
generate a higher carbon footprint.
In the future, carbon emissions will be seen as
a potential asset and are tradable under some
schemes. High emissions may be taxed, but
low emissions enable emission allocations
to be sold on as carbon credits on a carbontrading platform.
Organizations will need to look to carbon
emissions more in this way, monetizing them
as carbon credits and including them in their
managerial and financial reports. Disclosure of
emissions will become a standard reporting
item for many businesses and effective
carbon management will be required.
Key areas for improvement need to be

identified with a planned course of action.
Regular reassessment should be carried out
to ensure that targets are being met and to
identify new opportunities for improvement
Cloud services
Cloud computing as a delivered service
is essentially the next generation of utility
computing, which has been providing
processing and storage on an on demand
basis for many years. The big players in this
game build infrastructure on an industrial
scale: there are often stories in the IT press
as to how many hundreds of millions they
are investing, or how many thousands of
servers they are hosting. The scale, combined
with standardization of hardware, software
and of operational processes, gives them the
economies of scale that they need to be able
to offer the flexible use of low cost shared
services provided over the Internet.
The essential characteristics of cloud
computing are:
``
The deliverable is on-demand self-services,
rather than physical components
``
Broad network access, usually via the
Internet
``
A shared or pooled environment, used by
multiple customers
``
Easily scaled up or down in response to
demand
``
Pay for what you use, rather than a fixed
amount.
For example, Amazons Simple Storage
Service provides a simple web services
interface that can be used to store and
retrieve any amount of data, at any time, from
anywhere on the Web for cents per Gb. As
of Q2 2011, it claims to store over 449 billion
objects.
97
There are currently three main categories of

these services:
Adopting cloud services can bring significant

benefits:
``
Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS):
a user of IaaS can provision processing,
storage, networks and other fundamental
computing resources, and can deploy and
run software-like operating systems and
applications. The user does not manage or
control the underlying cloud infrastructure,
but does have control over the operating
system, storage and deployed applications.
Additionally, there may be limited control of
a select set of networking components (for
example host firewalls).
``
Lower application service costs currently
as low as a few dollars per month for entry
level web applications
``
Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS): a
user of SaaS can access the providers
applications running on a cloud
infrastructure. The applications are
accessible from various client devices
through a thin client interface, such as a
web browser (such as a web-based e-mail),
or by other applications via SOA calls using
web services. The user does not manage or
control the underlying cloud infrastructure,
including network, servers, operating
systems, storage or even individual
application capabilities, with the possible
exception of limited user-specific application
configuration settings.
``
Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS): a user
of PaaS can deploy self-created or acquired
applications, created using programming
languages and tools supported by the
PaaS provider, onto a cloud infrastructure.
The user does not manage or control the
underlying cloud infrastructure including
network, servers, operating systems or
storage, but has control over the deployed
applications and possibly application
hosting environment configurations.
98
Consumerization of IT
Concept
When the iPad was launched, it was greeted
with enthusiasm by individuals but not in
the same way by many IT departments.
But pressure at boardroom level has forced
organizations to adopt them for amongst
other uses paperless board meetings, and
now analysts see tablet usage growing at
the expense of time spent using laptops and
Smartphones, with laptops being used more
for longer sessions.
``
Dramatically reduced capital expenditure
funding because services are charged
mainly by usage
``
Improved business agility because IT
services can be quickly introduced, with
flexibility to scale up or down capacity in
minutes.
Impact
Cloud services will see increasing adoption,
particularly for companies who do not handle
a lot of personal data, whose IT costs are
under pressure and who need to be able
to quickly ramp up and down the level of
services.
This is just one example of why

consumerization of IT in the enterprise is one
of the most hotly debated points today. People
increasingly expect tools as work which are
as good and intuitive as those they have at
home, and also to bring those tools to work.
Impact
Even where connectivity to the enterprise
network has been forbidden (using
administrative or technical controls), people
are still using personal devices to store notes
and to do lists, some of which could be
considered confidential from the enterprises
perspective.
Revenues from IaaS, PaaS and SaaS business

models are projected to be up to 30% of IT
providers income in the next 5 years. New
entrants such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft
and Apple will make their presence felt.
Analysts feel the PaaS market will consolidate
and most IaaS will be consumed as part of
PaaS or SaaS offerings in a few years time.
PaaS is a highly strategic layer in the Cloud
stack as providers can exert pressure on
lower level suppliers (IaaS) and higher level
consumers (SaaS and BPaaS), Players in the
Cloud market must either develop an in-house
PaaS capability or partner with PaaS providers.
Trajectory
This process is at the beginning. Whilst the
position for IaaS is clear, PaaS definitions and
decisions are made right now. Significant SaaS
market share is projected to occur in 3-5 years.
More business professionals are buying their

own software as they believe IT departments
were too slow to respond to their queries.
To take advantage of consumerization, CIOs
must ask two questions: why shouldnt
we and why do employees have access
to better, faster, newer technology at home
than at work? Consumerization can deliver
significant benefits to an organization and
many are looking to adopt a consumer or a
bring/buy-your-own (BYO) scheme. Todays
BYO discussions are limited to device choice,
but BYO may soon extend further into other
aspects of the corporate infrastructure.
Resulting benefits range from cost reduction,

creation of an infrastructure ready to meet
the demands of the future mobile workforce
and a focus on securing and providing the
services that really matter to the business.
The pressure for change from both the
current and future employee is higher than
ever before and this is only going to increase
as the pace of innovation in cool consumer
technology continues. Once a consumer
approach has been established, it means one
less thing for the CIO to think about, enabling
a shift in focus to the added-value services
that really matter to the business. The main
challenges are security related.
Corporate governance and risk

Concept
Strong governance manages risks but can
also inhibit innovation, and the best balance
for both national finances and corporate
policy is continuously sought.
The recent financial crisis represented a
failure of corporate governance and risk
management it has produced a backlash
about the need for stronger government
financial regulation, which was previously
deemphasized to allow entrepreneurial
growth.
Some CEOs feel that uncertainty about
the level of financial regulation is a major
uncertainty for their business.
The sovereign debt crisis has similarly resulted
in a demand for stronger accountability and
regulation within the Eurozone.
Impact
The perception of poor corporate governance
can hugely impact public perception Pattern
based strategies aim to improve the ability
to foresee the unexpected, and improve risk
management in the future.
Corporate governance shapes all aspects of

how corporations interact within the society
that they are a part of. Companies with
comprehensive corporate governance have
a significant competitive advantage over the
long term.
Customer demands and intimacy

Concept
Customers are increasingly looking for
personalized products and services that more
closely fulfill their requirements from the car
insurance of your dreams down to personal
greeting cards from Moonpig.com.
The Internet gives customers more access
to information, more choice and a louder
voice. Retaining customers becomes an
increasingly complex task requiring intimacy
and transparency to ensure their demands
are met.
More sophisticated techniques are
increasingly used to understand customers
and customer groups, with corporate
reputation managers being hired to shoulder
the burdensome responsibility of managing
online image.
Impact
Organizations need to understand what it is
that customers want, where they are looking
for low-cost goods and services, and where
they are looking for personalized ones.
For personalized goods, organizations need
to put in place models that allow them to
deliver on the customers new specialized
demands. To do this will require an intimacy
with customers, perhaps identifying safe
customers with whom they can work closely
to bounce ideas off.
adaptable to new bespoke customer solutions

or niche sub- market solutions as they
emerge.
At the other end of the scale, organizations
need to understand where customers are
looking for low-cost, basic, value products and
services, to ensure that they can profitably
meet customer demands.
Drowning in information death

of e-mail
Concept
There is a tremendous explosion of data: in
2011 the world will create 1.8 zettabytes; the
volume of business data doubles every year.
Managers spend 25% of their time searching
for information and a typical knowledge
worker spends 20 hours a week reading and
sending e-mails.
E-mail has three main uses a filing cabinet
for personal knowledge, a production line for
collaborating on tasks, and a communications
genre. E-mail is used to work in because it is
the only tool you can assume people have.
The level of e-mail (200 per day for some
users) causes a serious impact on the
performance of people who work less
effectively.
The coming together of traditional enterprise
collaboration tools, Content Management and
social networking, will create the next wave
of disruptive technologies and innovative
business processes that will ultimately change
the way enterprises communicate internally
and externally.
Services and products will need to be

developed in such a way as to be easily
99
Impact
Impact
Organizations will progressively integrate

collaboration into business processes to
ensure access to the right content when
required, both within and outside the
organization. It comprises the implementation
of social technologies to facilitate collaboration
and information exchange between people.
Most CEOS have developed a new very

different strategy to align with the above in the
last few years.
This facilitates control of information overload,

offering ubiquity and hyper-connectivity
to enable new services and increase the
effectiveness of collaboration between clients,
partners and suppliers, to generate real value.
Companies based in emerging markets see

other such countries as the most important
export targets, rather than the mature
economies.
This represents a new cultural way of working

with a positive effect on employee wellbeing.
Increasing numbers of organizations are
seeing a future with more collaboration to
improve business performance and the
progressive death of e-mail.
Emerging markets growth

Concept
A profound shift in global economic power
from West to East is under way with Western
economies playing a diminishing role in the
global economy over time, just as China, India
and other emerging markets, such as Brazil
and Russia, play an ever-increasing one.
Emerging economies are typically growing
at 6% (China, India, and Indonesia) whereas
mature economies are lucky to be growing
at half that rate. Almost all European CEOs
expect growth in emerging markets this year,
whereas only about half expect growth at
home.
China is likely to overtake the USA as the
worlds largest economy within the next
quarter of a century.
Industrial companies recognize that being a

global leader means having a real presence in
emerging markets.
Many emerging economies are investing

aggressively in research and development
and in their skills base. The focus of global
R&D is shifting from the West to India and
China. As a result, highly skilled sectors in
the Western labor market are likely to face
increasing competition from the East causing
further pressure on public spending in the old
world.
Concept
Finding and retaining talent is an issue on
every CXO agenda - CFO, CIO, CTO, and
CEO - and, with the importance of emerging
markets; it is high on the agenda in every
region too.
Organizations rely on talented individuals
in order to stay ahead of competitors by
bringing fresh ideas to the business. As
employees have much less expectations of a
lifetime career it becomes more important to
keep and attract the best.
Those graduates now entering the

employment market are no longer looking
for that job for life, nor are they necessarily
motivated by pay alone. Many for example
ask specifically about the companys
environmental policy.
Impact
Although growth is strong in emerging

markets, competition is pushing margins
down and the business model has to be
rigorous to withstand the pressure.
Finding and retaining talent
In the new economy, competition is global,

capital is abundant, ideas are developed
quickly and cheaply, and people are willing to
change jobs often.
Companies are focusing more on Employee

Engagement and wellbeing as well as financial
reward. This places factors such as Corporate
Social Responsibility (CSR), flexible working,
working environment, management style,
personal development, varied incentives and
total reward much higher up the agenda.
A Gallup study* on earnings per share in
89 organizations found that growth rates of
those units with engagement scores in the
top quartile were 2.6 times those of units
with below average engagement scores. In
organizations with engaged employees profits
grew as much as three times faster than their
competition.
For a cost cutting organization, engagement
allows you to lower workforce costs by
addressing absenteeism and attrition.
For a surviving organization, employee
engagement allows you to maintain
productivity and service levels whilst working
with an already reduced headcount, or grow
your outputs with a recruitment cap in place.
For a recovering organization, employee
engagement allows you to unlock innovation
and agility to get ahead of the competition.
* Quoted in Engaging for success: enhancing performance through employee engagement a report to government David MacLeod, Nita Clarke.
100
Green IT
Impact
Impact
Green IT has two major themes:
Ideas management is key to ensuring that an

innovation program is successful. In order to
ensure that a wide range of ideas is generated,
wide publicity is required to ensure that
individuals are aware that ideas are being
sought on and that a process is in place to
ensure that all such ideas will be assessed.
Convergence is predicted to help reduce

costs and risk, and improve the quality of
decisions. The scattered application landscape
especially on the shop floor level will give way
to an integrated application landscape making
use of the strengths of PLM, MES and ERP
systems. This will happen on a global level.
A framework is required to take all ideas

from conception to a point where they are
delivering value or, if an idea is a no-go, on to
an exit point.
The integration of the aforementioned three

value chains will decrease dramatically new
product introduction times by more than
50%, as well as reducing waste, improving
customer satisfaction, lowering risk and
improving the quality of decisions.
``
Green for IT: IT contributes to sustainable
development by for example a lower
carbon footprint.
``
IT for Green: IT serves green growth by
enabling smarter, lower consumption,
greener, solutions.
Impact
Green for IT:
``
IT accounted for 2% of total CO2 emissions
in the EU in 2009.
``
Of up to 70% comes from data centers.
``
This can be reduced by virtualization, low
consumption equipment and changing
from always on to always available.
IT for Green:
``
Information technologies can contribute
to reducing CO2 emissions by up to 15%
by 2020, through use of technologies like
smart grid.
``
Strategy of using decarbonized (renewable)
energy supplies.
``
It is generally agreed that effect of IT for
green will be five times more important
than effect of the related ICT consumption.
``
There is considerable public and political
debate and are legally covered by different
regulations around the world.
Ideas management
Concept
It is one thing encouraging your talented
workforce to come up with new ideas to help
your business innovate and gain competitive
advantage. But organizations require a
framework in place to gather those ideas and
allow them to deliver their full potential.
Idea management tools guide an organization

through the publicity, concept gathering,
assessing, and nurturing processes to ensure
that maximum value is achieved.
As part of the open innovation trend, ideas
systems are being opened up to partners with
appropriate agreement about sharing the
benefits and risks.
IT-OT convergence
According to Gartners website An

independent world of operational technology
(OT) is developing separately from IT groups.
If IT organizations do not engage with OT
environments to assess convergence, create
alignment and seek potential integration, they
may be side-lined from major technology
decisions - and place OT systems at risk.
Concept
Lean everywhere
Traditionally, enterprises have optimized

the use of their IT-systems in different, still
isolated business areas of value creation,
putting barriers in place of significant business
improvement.
Concept
Reducing enterprise costs and improving
business processes were both high on
the CEO agenda in 2011, with many CEOs
investing in IT for these reasons.
IT-OT convergence in manufacturing involves

integrated architecture of Product Lifecycle
Management, Manufacturing Execution and
ERP Systems.
Lean provides a way to make continuous

improvement through removal of waste
and synchronization of processes to provide
balanced throughput, matched to customer
demand.
Looking along at the vertical data flow of

a company, from shop-floor to top-floor,
there is still a struggle in getting the Process
Automation layer (PLC/DCS/SCADA), the
Production Automation layer (MES) and
Business Automation layer (ERP) really
integrated interfacing is not the solution.
101
The focus is on five principles:
Legacy risk management
Risk management
1. Process efficiency: focus on maximum

customer impact, delivering to customers
what they want, when they want it, at
the quality level they want overall
standardization in processes with no waste.
Concept
Concept
When a US regional airlines reservation

system crashed on Christmas Eve, no-one
in IT knew that the old reservation system,
written in Fortran, had a limit to the number of
bookings. As a result, they could not resume
full operations until after Christmas.
The recent financial crisis provides a

perfect example of what can go wrong. Its
ramifications have been far-reaching and
the lessons learned will be embedded in risk
management practices for years to come.
2. Performance management: delivering

on customer outcomes is continuously
monitored along cost, quality and efficiency
in a structured and consistent approach.
3. Organization and skills: individuals within
the organization have the skills and
knowledge to always deliver on their
accountabilities.
4. Mindsets and behaviors: people and teams
putting the customer at the heart of the
business.
5. Clients: focusing on the most significant
satisfaction factors for clients.
Impact
By applying lean techniques, the company
can optimize the use of resources by
removing barriers to efficiency that add no
value to the business, such as cumbersome
administrative procedures.
Many organizations may have a similar

hidden time bomb ticking in the bowels of
their datacenters: aging equipment, fading
technologies with barely any knowledge left in
the organization and the market, applications
nobody really knows inside-out (possibly
without a vendor supporting them) and an
aging workforce that is still there knowing how
it all works, but will leave soon.
Impact
There is a serious risk to the businesses, if
the wrong system fails and takes too long to
replace or repair.
Impact
IT departments will want to conduct audits to

assess the risk and auditors will focus more on
these business continuity risks.
The lean approach is designed to assess

company processes to better identify sources
of waste, variability, and lack of flexibility in the
way we work.
It may be a challenge to improve risk

management which could cost a lot and focus
attention away from innovation and towards
survival.
The manufacturing advisory service in the UK

notes these benefits from its improvement
projects, many done with Lean methodology:
A 26% improvement in delivery performance,
33% improvement in stock turns, 25% increase
in productivity, 26% reduction in scrap and
33% reduction in space.
Trajectory
To ensure that a lean approach does not

remove major innovations, some companies
use a structured innovation approach such as
TRIZ to compliment it.
102
Companies in any industry will have to

develop and/or strengthen appropriate
mechanisms and tools for identifying,
modeling, and managing risk at all levels:
``
Strategic risks: competition, social trend, and
capital availability.
``
Operational (and hazard) risks: customer
satisfaction, product failure, integrity,
reputation risk, property damage, and
natural catastrophe.
``
Financial risks: pricing risk, asset risk,
currency risk and liquidity risk.
Most organizations are blissfully unaware of

the risks, some have been hit in some way
and then tried to ignore the bigger problem.
As examples get into the public domain, there
will become greater awareness particularly if
failures take place in critical industries.
This concept will emerge forcefully in
the coming years, especially in larger
organizations that have been around in one
form or another for at least two decades.
Much discussion of the crisis has reflected

on the perceived failure of enterprise risk
management. Some experts have suggested
that existing risk management processes and
tools may not have been up to the task since
many of the standard quantitative models and
users of these models underestimated the
systematic nature of risks. Many others have
argued that the crisis is not a result of a failure
of the enterprise risk management process
per se, but rather a failure to implement
enterprise risk management processes
effectively.
Strategic risk management techniques

will help companies devise and deploy a
systematic approach to managing strategic
risk, defined as the array of external events
and trends that can devastate a companys
growth trajectory and shareholder value.
Mobile workforce
Concept
Increasingly, the workforce is working away
from the office, whether on the road visiting
clients and partners or simply reducing the
amount of travel and working remotely.
Mobile working on a wide range of devices
is increasingly an integral part of how IT
functionality is being opened up to workers,
and all IT functionality increasingly needs
to be accessible remotely and from mobile
devices.
Impact
Mobile workers are demanding real-time
access to information along with access to
functionality available in the office to ensure
they do not become the bottleneck within
business processes.
With increasing functionality available in the
consumer space, such as mobile Internet,
mobile TV, mobile VoIP, and even mobile eBay,
it is hardly surprising that these workers are
looking for solutions that deliver similar levels
of capability to assist them in their working
lives.
The desire of senior managers to buy cool
devices such as iPads and suddenly move to a
paperless board meeting is surprisingly strong
in even relatively conservative organizations
Offshoring changes
Concept
Many Western production institutions have
de-localized parts of their business to the East,
in particular China. There is a concern around
the profitability of these investments as profit
from the sale of these goods is far lower than
if they were sold in the West.
However, offshoring is not just about India or

China. Many more locations worldwide are
now being tapped into as potential new sites,
with key countries being Brazil and Russia. In
manufacturing, Vietnam and Cambodia are of
growing importance.
The cost of offshoring to countries such as
India and China is increasing as the workforce
increases its skills and broadens its portfolio
to include delivery. This requires a skilled
workforce, particularly in the field of research.
Offshoring nearer home to an alternative,
less expensive country (sometimes called
nearshoring) gives some of the benefits of
offshoring, such as reduced costs, but without
some of the cultural and time zone barriers
that can be experienced when offshoring
further afield.
Impact
Organizations may need to evaluate potential
new locations to ensure that their objectives
for offshoring are still being met and that they
are maximizing its benefits.
In addition to increased skills, there have
recently been some big changes in legislation
that have given workers more rights. This
is driving up costs on the one hand, but is
being balanced by products and services that
have a higher degree of social responsibility:
something that Western consumers are
becoming more aware of and are more likely
to base at least some of their purchasing
decisions around.
The degree of change can be seen with some
outsourcing services companies in India now
offshoring to other parts of the globe.
There is an emerging trend reported including

Ford, GE, NCR and Caterpillar to bring some
production back onshore. Issues driving this
include the increase in costs and salaries
outside the USA in recent years, whereas
in the USA they have remained fairly flat or
actually decreased.
The trend previously has been to use
culturally close and politically stable regions
first. These may be partially exhausted and
companies will have to consider options
including reshoring (see offshoring section)
or becoming more adventurous and taking
more risks over time to maintain profit. There
is a need for local agents/fixers and hedging
against geo-political instability will become
increasing important.
By offshoring nearer to home, many of the
frustrations caused by language barriers
and/or cultural misunderstandings can be
eliminated. This enables better discussions
and understanding around project issues such
as requirements and pitfalls.
Open innovation
Concept
Innovation is increasingly high on the
corporate agenda, because the pressure is to
do more with less, and faster.
Open innovation addresses this problem
as an innovation model or paradigm that
is not restricted to the boundaries of an
organization.
Open innovation encourages organizations
to seek inspiration from a wider ecosystem
that includes partners, suppliers, customers,
competitors, universities, consumers, and the
many sources of knowledge in todays widely
connected world.
103
With an open innovation mindset,

organizations understand that they dont have
to invent something themselves to get value
from it. Also, commercialization of internally
generated ideas by third parties might
generate the highest value.
The term open innovation was first formalized
by Professor Henry Chesbrough at University
California, Berkley in 2003
Trajectory
Innovation in the 21st century is increasingly
open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary and
global.
There are erosion factors which are providing
increasing challenges for traditional R&D
functions to retain knowledge.
Of these mobility of people, loss of
technological hegemony, increasing
sophistication of university research schemes,
knowledge leak, pervasive communities of
users practicing their own innovation and
availability of venture capital are key factors.
The understanding of how to do this is
developing.
Impact
Open innovation will be adopted more and
more.
Companies will develop and embed
meaningful guidelines which work effectively
to get the right balance between innovation
and risk.
IP will become progressively more important.
Individuals will have to work with guidelines
on what to share formally and informally.
The cost of innovation will decrease and the
pace will increase
104
Risk of disruption
This process, where services make up a

larger part of a product company, is known as
servitization.
Concept
In an ever-changing world, the risk of
disruption is becoming greater as we see
more threats from climate change, terrorism
and even pandemics.
An early example was the change in the

aircraft engine industry when manufacturers
such as Rolls-Royce, who coined the term
Power by the Hour, started to sell air power
as a service rather than engines, maintenance
and spares.
Organizations cannot expect to predict these

but can have plans in place to deal with the
consequences.
Impact
Over recent years, there have been a number
of instances where unexpected events caused
by extremes of climate have caused massive
disruption to individuals and organizations
alike.
The Japanese Tsunami, the tornados in the
American Midwest and the Volcanic Ash crisis
have shown the potential for major disruption
that already exists in the post-9/11 world with
its background danger of terrorist activities
and the threats from global pandemics such
as avian flu.
As part of Next Generation Business
Continuity, organizations may wish to have
continuity plans in place to ensure the smooth
running of their business with a continuing
provision of services in the event of an
unexpected catastrophe.
Servitisation
A highly visible example of selling goods by

the amount of functionality that they are
able to deliver often on a timeframe basis is
Software as a Service (SaaS).
Impact
Because the services can be best developed,
sold and delivered by the product supplier,
there is a lock-in effect resulting in relatively
high profit margins. And because services are
related to the (large) installed base they suffer
less from cyclical economic cycles than the
core product business
The phenomenon servitization will transform
entire product industries from technologypush and product oriented to customer-pull
and service oriented. The transformation
is organization-wide on all transformation
dimensions: Business model, Key Performance
Indicators, Organization and Governance,
Processes and Services, People and Culture,
and Information Management.
Concept
Services are increasingly being employed
as profitable and stable revenue streams to
enhance commoditizing product businesses.
Some leading firms are adopting a solutions
business model, offering customized solutions
to clients, where manufacturing no longer is a
differentiating process.
Trajectory
Many product companies (B2B and B2C alike)
are developing services as a way to grow their
commoditizing business. Services are broadly
seen as attractive business:
``
Services provide additional revenues on top
of the product business
``
Services represent - when well organized - a
high margin business
``
Services represent a relatively stable
business, which can act as a damper
against volatile product business.
Developing a product business towards
a service business typically involves four
maturity stages:
``
Product manufacturer: sell products and
charge for basic break-fix services
``
Value Added Manufacturer: sell products
and service to enhance the product
performance
``
Full Service Provider: replace products
by (managed) services and enhance
customers operational performance
``
Integrated Solution Provider: take over
(parts of) customers operations.
Smart mobility
Concept
A shopper spots a product they like, and scans
the barcode with a phone. This instantly tells
them of nearby shops which stock the same
product and at what cost, displays a map of
how to get there, and lets them network with
their friends to get their views of the product.
This is an example of smart mobility, which
turns context sensitive information on a
mobile device into direct and sustainable
business advantage. The root of this
advantage lies in the ability to identify
what contextual data is owned, and then to
capitalize on it.
Real examples will create value so that

customers will pay, third parties/partners will
pay, and operations become more efficient,
distinctive and cost-effective. Smart mobility is
a powerful concept which will result in major
changes to our everyday lives, driven by the
fact that people are no longer chained to
desks.
Four aspects of context stand out: where
people are; when they are there; what they are
doing there and who they are (and who they
connect with).
The challenge is to exploiting these four
context streams in new ways to enable people
to do things they have never done before
things that will generate direct and sustainable
revenue.
To push mobility to smart mobility, a Context
Broker Platform (CBP) is needed. This platform
gathers the contextual information associated
with a persons actual situation in real time.
The CBP parses a mass of machine-tomachine data through a context rule engine.
Total automation allows mass data to be sliced
and combined for action in innovative mobile
applications. Most importantly, it manages the
allocation and feeds the transaction managed
for continuous monetization.
Impact
Smart mobility services enabled by ContextAware Computing will anticipate and react
to the needs of users, providing relevant,
useful information to allow them to make
better-informed decisions. These services
will supersede the existing smartphone
applications and revolutionize how providers
interact with consumers, organizations with
employees, governments with employees and
people with their social networks.
In all smart mobility scenarios, clients increase

revenues and efficiency by delivering value
and by monetizing user-experience not just by
selling apps alone. The end result must be that
more people spend more money on more
products and services as a result of the smart
mobility context.
The existing internet business models will
have to evolve to keep pace with a new wave
of intelligent services and may not even be
fit for purpose at all. They may have to be
replaced with new approaches. With any
new business paradigm, there will be winners
and losers and the me-too players may well
find the market moving faster than they can
react with more commercially innovative
competitors taking their market share.
Trajectory
Around one third of all mobile digital
communication devices in Europe are now
smartphones.
Social media
Concept
In business a new way of working is emerging
using new collaborative tools based on
social media technology to make it easier
to work together and speed up finding the
right information by immediately enabling
people to locate the right people and the right
knowledge.
These tools enable the organization to work
not just along formal lines, but also along the
cross boundary and informal lines, which are
essential to deliver the agility needed to meet
geographic, product and market changes.
105
Social context already plays a crucial role

in shaping how things actually get done in
any organization. Managers and individual
workers rely on their personal knowledge of
workplace or professional social context and
use informal communication channels such
as e-mail, the telephone, private conversations
and, increasingly, social networking services to
carry out their work.
Impact
The tools will be especially valuable in
organizations with high intensity of knowledge
workers with non-standard processes and
virtual teams, because it eases their job, give
them more flexibility and makes them feel an
important part of the company. At the same
time this enables the extended enterprise by
facilitating collaboration with customers and
partners. The social business dimension is
about the reputation of individuals as well as
the nature and strength of the relationships
between people.
Benefits to organizations are cited as: higher
employee engagement, resulting in both
improved organizational performance and
lower churn and costs of replacement; higher
personal effectiveness and a potential increase
in sales.
As the learning from Enterprise Content
Management and previous collaboration
tools shows, the adoption of these more
powerful and intuitive tools still requires major
change of behavior and culture throughout
the organization, and those who will get
maximum benefit are those who are able to
lead and manage such a significant transition.
Trajectory
The enabling technologies were developed in
the 2000s, and moved into general society
through new usages. They are now adopted
and used in personal lives (Facebook, Twitter
or LinkedIn, for example). They will be coming
106
back to corporates and organizations as a

must have, with transformational impact.
SoLoMo
Concept
Social, Local, Mobile.
This is currently a strong trend in the Silicon
Valley. Venture Capital maven John Doerr of
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers coined the
acronym SoLoMo to sum up this convergence
of 3 major powers and acknowledges they are
affecting all aspects of business faster than
most managers have realized:
``
Social: leverage social behaviors to expand
the reach and popularity of your service
or application and to collect content
(crowdsourcing)
Due to a multitude of economic, social and

environmental drivers, it is now clear that the
business context is transforming quickly with
sustainability central to the agenda. Business
and IT transformation is now an imperative
for all businesses wishing to survive over
the next five years sustainability is a core
component of that transformation. Any
business and IT transformation that does not
have sustainability embedded into it shall not
succeed. Hence sustainability is a household
business component; like productivity, it is
new hence CxOs are still getting their head
round the implications, but it is here to stay
and has far reaching, transformative impacts
on all aspects of the business model.
Impact
``
Local: leverage location information (using
GPS, Wi-Fi or Cell-ID, for instance) to increase
proximity and relevance of the content to
the user
``
Mobile: use mobile as the primary vector
of your service (mobile internet, native app
referenced in app stores), enabling instant
contribution and use.
Impact
Usually requires a complete revisit of the
strategy. Its not merely squashing a website
into a mobile, nor is it copy/paste of all features
of the website into a native app.
Sustainability
Concept
On March 20, 1987 the Brundtland
Commission of the United Nations defined
sustainable development as development
that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs.
New ways of working, operating and

being for the people, process and product
aspects is now a critical success factor
for those organizations able to succeed
and evolve over the next few years
ahead. Embedding sustainability into the
DNA (the values, behaviors, measures,
KPIs, processes, approaches to work and
delivery mechanisms) is a key part of the
transformation towards a Firm of The
Future that can adapt and evolve in these
transformative times. There are three
elements to this
``
Strategy to a sustainable business model
``
Operations sustainable operational
excellence: Optimizing business processes
to save costs, increase efficiency and
flexibility, stimulate knowledge sharing and
enable collaboration across the supply
chain (cradle to cradle).
``
Infrastructure ensuring a sustainable
IT infrastructure: carbon neutral hosting
facilities and services produce a sustainable
infrastructure.
Traceability and visibility
Trajectory
Web science
Concept
``
Internet video is projected to surpass 50%
of consumer Internet traffic in a few years
time.
Concept
As workers become more mobile, and

customers want to ensure the safety and
origin of products, traceability will be key for
products from constituents to consumer
and for personnel movements and behaviors.
Impact
Being able to effectively and efficiently recall
a product will benefit both the consumer, by
ensuring that any potential safety issues are
dealt with swiftly and the manufacturer and by
ensuring that necessary batches are recalled.
Consumer confidence will be higher with any
manufacturer who is able to act swiftly in the
event of an emergency.
Even competitors may work together to
prevent counterfeit goods, using RFID parts
identification.
``
Video on demand traffic is expected to
triple in three years.
Impact
Video will have a major impact on the
workplace:
``
More of the content that workers see in a
day will be dominated by pictures, video or
audio, with usage expected to grow at 50%
per annum.
``
Companies will have to have a strategy for
video content management delivery and
communications.
``
Video will increasingly become part of office
collaboration systems.
``
More high quality interactions will be
possible without physical travel, potentially
reducing the demand for long distance air
and flight services.
Organizations will need to know where their

mobile workers are in order to ensure that
they are doing their job efficiently and also so
that they can ensure that they are safe in the
event of an emergency.
``
It will become increasingly important for
organizations to store, index, search and
retrieve video.
Video
``
Video skills will become more generally
important in the workforce.
Concept
Video will become the defacto means of
communication, collaboration and knowledge
dissemination. This is causing a major change
in ways of working and will have a similarly
big impact on the need for companies to have
a strategy its use, storage and management.
There are now 8 billion hits a day on YouTube,
with 48 hours being uploaded every minute.
For an enterprise, there will be the challenges
and opportunities of both managing and
distributing stored content and using live
video based tools such as conferencing,
telepresence and collaboration.
``
There will be increased demand on
enterprise bandwidth and storage capacity.
``
IPR is important for distribution of video
and tends to be based on geography
and distribution channels. Digital Rights
Management is used to protect rights over
copyrighted content and to facilitate the
collection of revenues.
``
Technologies such as audio to text, facial
recognition, pattern recognition, and image
comparisons and semantic search will
progressively impact on the problem of
searching for and retrieving the right video.
Making the most of the Web is evolving

into requires more than technical skill- it
also requires sociology and psychology.
Tim Berners-Lee, MIT and the University of
Southampton are running new doctorates in
what they term Web Science. They believe
web scientists will become important business
figures and entrepreneurs. The Web Science
Trust brings together academics, business
leaders, entrepreneurs and policy makers
from around the world. Its goal is to foster
multidisciplinary research to study the World
Wide Web and describe the issues and
challenges that will shape its future use and
design.
Other schools of thinking are predicting
the death of the Web and the rise of Apps
and it remains to be seen how this will
develop. Whichever takes precedence, the
social aspects of digital adoption will play a
critical part in maximizing the opportunities
presented by these changes.
Impact
There are many parallels between web
science and information science, but it also
included behavioral elements. We might see
web scientists changing the web landscape.
Initial areas of interest are social networks and
trust and privacy.
Trajectory
The Web has changed and has become
more about the way people use it than the
technical limitations or dictations. Making the
most of the Web is critical for most businesses
and turning it into a science might raise the
credibility.
``
The use of video in the workplace is likely to
even further drive a distributed workforce
and globalization.
107
2012+ Enabling Information

Technologies Radar in Detail
AI Enhanced Robots
Mainstream
Early adoption
Adolescent
Nanocomputers
Context Broker
Emerging
Miniturized Power
Wireless Power
Machine-to-Machine
Semantic Data
Integration
Computer Vision
Serious Gaming
Machine Learning
Mobile Operating
Sensor Networks
Systems
4G
Natural Language
Processing
Speech Technologies
Privacy Enhancing
Semantic Web
Semantic Search
Technologies
Engines
Virtual Retinal
Displays
Mesh Networks
Mobile Payments
Distributed Social
Universal
Multi-Touch
Big Data Stacks
Networks
Translators
Data Visualization
NoSQL
Tablet
Biometrics
Physical Unclonable
Computing
Augmented
Reality
NFC
Functions
3D Printing
Plastics Transistors
Business Process
Avatars
Management Systems
Cloud Orchestration
3D LBS & GIS
Holographic
E-Paper
Data Storage
Web-Based
Open Source
Peer-to-Peer
Hardware
Open Source Software
RFID
Now
108
3D Displays
Mashups
Grid
IPv6
Computing
Graphical Codes
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
3D display
Concept
Any display device that creates the perception
of depth to the viewer can be described as a
3D display.
3D perception can be brought about by
rendering a real volume in the air with light
dots (volumetric display).
It can also be artificially created by using
optical interferences (holographic display)
or by using the principle of stereopsis: each
eye sees the image of an object from a
slightly different angle. The viewer either
wears glasses (stereoscopic display) or not
(autostereoscopic display). This latter 3D
display is the most common today.
Applications
``
Entertainment: the movie industry has
massively invested in stereoscopic display
in the past years. TV set manufacturers
are also in the race as 3D content starts to
appear (sports, concerts and movies, for
instance).
``
Health: 3D displays have been used
for years by surgeons and radiologist.
This natural rendering can ease remote
operations.
``
Maintenance: whether it is cars or washing
machines, 3D displays can help technicians
in their diagnosis by providing a natural
feeling of the object.
``
Marketing: the demonstrative effect of
the technology makes it a must have for
marketers.
``
GUI: 3D displays are affordable now,
allowing developers of applications and
websites to take 3D content a step further,
creating more immersive experiences.
Issues
``
(Auto)stereoscopic displays are not yet
mass market. Holographic and volumetric
displays are still very costly.
``
Glasses, compulsory for most 3D TVs and in
movie theatres, are not much appreciated
by viewers.
``
Because of the physiological effect of faking
3D (despite the natural feeling, eyes cannot
change focus), many people suffer from
headache after a movie.
3D location-based services
and geographical information
systems (3D LBS & GIS)
Concept
Geographical information systems (GIS)
are systems capable of capturing, storing,
analyzing and displaying information
referenced according to its geographical
location.
Location-based services (LBS) take advantage
of a users geographical position to deliver
contextualized information or services.
3D GIS and 3D LBS are the next generation of
GIS and LBS, taking the third dimension into
account.
Taken separately, traditional LBS technologies

do not yet provide a sufficient level of
accuracy on the third dimension, but their
combination with 3D models (with a city or
building, for example) could bring sufficient
value to the end-user.
Benefits
``
3D representation enables much more
realistic representation of the world.
``
There are any new kinds of applications that
were difficult, or not possible, with 2D maps
only: studying sound propagation, lighting
(shades) or rain flow and managing dense
pipe networks, for instance.
Issues
``
It is heavy on computing resources.
3D printing
Concept
3D printing is a manufacturing technology
that is used to build 3D objects.
It superposes layers of material, often a melted
polymer, with each layer being built using
techniques similar to inkjet printing.
It can be used to materialize objects that have
been designed using CAD systems.
Trajectory
This technology was first dedicated to
prototyping for the manufacturing industry
in the early stages of a product development
process.
109
The drop in price of 3D printers, the apparition

of open hardware initiatives and the general
Do It Yourself movement have popularized
this technology and spread it in the open
source communities.
CAD object design libraries are starting to
appear, allowing people to share and print
their own objects at home.
Benefits
``
Can be used by individuals to create and
share physical objects in the same way that
they share contents within the Creative
Commons movement or software pieces in
the open source movement.
``
Lowers the investment barrier for people
aiming at manufacturing small series of
objects.
Impact
``
Still an emerging trend, but gaining
attention amongst the DIY community.
``
Accompanying the open source hardware
and software movement.
``
Once mature, may have the same impact as
factories at the beginning of the industrial
era.
Issues
``
While the price of 3D printers has dropped,
they are still only usable by skilled
specialists.
``
3D printing is limited to relatively small
objects
``
Problems may appear related to the
intellectual property of models and CAD
designs.
4G wireless communication
AI enhanced robots
Concept
Concept
The fourth-generation communications

system (4G) is the next step in wireless
communications. A 4G wireless system will be
able to provide a comprehensive IP solution
where voice, data and streamed multimedia
can be given to users on an anytime,
anywhere basis and at higher data rates than
previous generations.
Coupled with robotics, Artificial Intelligence

(AI) enables the creation of realistic autonomic
simulations of physical systems.

security.
To date a number of intelligent robots have

been made for a diverse array of applications.
AI enhanced robots are not necessarily
humanoid. Most of them look like machines.
Benefits
``
Data rates are able to support smooth video
transmission with peak transmission rates
of 100 Mbps (wide area) and 1 Gbps (fixed/
low mobility).
``
Globally mobile and full-service portability.
``
Low cost.
``
Full scalability of mobile networks.
``
Tight network security, all network elements
being digital.
``
IP transport for voice, video, multimedia
and data services, as well as call control/
signaling.
``
First generation of mobile data networks to
support IPv6.
``
Next level of being always connected; an
important milestone for the internet of
things.
Applications
``
Video streaming to mobile devices.
The underlying technology is built around

advanced machine learning algorithms,
including artificial neural networks, genetic
algorithms and agent systems.
Impact
``
This is a rapidly developing technology,
allowing facilitation and automation of
innumerable business processes.
``
Smart machines will use private and public
clouds as a backbone for sharing data
with their robotic fellows and for accessing
information or services -- with growing
impact on the cloud business.
Applications
``
Already employed in a diverse range of
tasks across all industry sectors including
surveillance, fire prevention (detecting
and extinguishing), industrial inspection
(such as for repair of networked systems),
cleaning, sorting, and delivery (for example
of mail), robotic doctors (allowing doctors
to diagnose, and even operate on, patients
from a remote location), care of elderly
people in an ageing population, planetary
navigation, sheep-shearing and more.
``
TV on mobile phones.
``
Video conferencing.
``
Video streaming.
``
Wireless internet.
110
Benefits
Trajectory
Avatars
``
Cost reduction: replacing human workers
with robots is highly cost effective -costing only the initial purchase price and
subsequent maintenance. Humans require
ongoing wages, holidays and sick days.
In the typical set-up, text and/or graphics

are superimposed on the users view using
specially-made glass.
Concept
``
Increased efficiency: AI systems operate
by recognizing, learning and optimizing
otherwise imperceptible mathematical
patterns in their respective tasks, ensuring
maximum efficiency for minimum cost.
``
Increased productivity: robots do not tire
and can, therefore, maintain a consistent
level of performance indefinitely.
``
Customizability and flexibility: they can
rapidly adapt to deal with a variety of
constantly changing work environments
and can have a form factor suited to the job.
Issues
``
Staff resistance: the role could move from
facilitating human labor to supplanting it,
with the consequence of staff redundancy.
``
Over-hyped mythology: the media portrayal
of robots often presents a distorted view
of the truth.
``
Extreme scenario: the fear that robots may
self-reprogram to dangerous consequence
is obviously exaggerated, but dysfunctions
of badly designed smart machines may be
harmful.
Augmented reality
Concept
A users perception of the world is
supplemented with relevant information via a
device (headset or display). The superimposed
information usually includes graphics,
but could also be audio or other sensory
information such as smell.
Simpler set-ups also exist based, for instance,

on smartphones. The camera is used to
capture a visual scene and the screen displays
this view with supplemental information
computed or retrieved by the augmented
reality engine. The engine can use artificial
vision techniques to analyze the scene and
take advantage of on-board sensors such as
GPS, compass and accelerometer to collect
additional input on the context.
Applications
``
Maintenance and repair: technical
documentation, reference material and
measurement.
``
Health: where scan results and models of
internal organs can be overlaid on patients.
An avatar is defined as an iconic

representation, usually with human shape,
of an entity that could be as diverse as
an individual, a system user or even a
corporation.
Avatars simplify human-machine
communication in electronic media through
the extensive and coordinated exploitation
of virtual reality, 2D and 3D graphical design,
voice synthesis, automatic speech recognition,
natural language processing technologies and
emotional intelligence techniques.
Avatars and virtual assistants are the
electronic equivalents of real-world reception
desk staff, designed to help users on
administrative tasks and to locate and browse
information in a friendly, yet effective, way.
Benefits
``
Driving: navigation information, highlighted
obstacles or dangers.
``
Uninterrupted 24x7 service.
``
Consumer location-based services
``
Simpler, more natural and appealing
human-machine interactions.
``
Tourist information
``
Social interaction
``
Gaming
``
Military
Benefits
``
Hands-free and real-time access to contextbased information.
``
Information highly tailored to the users
perspective, particularly in that it will be able
to track the users visual image.
``
Continuous refresh as the user moves.
``
Unified corporate image, available on
different channels.
``
Cost reduction strategies and savings on
customer service activities.
``
Enhances application usability by providing
interactive assistance and improving
information access tasks.
Issues
``
Natural language interaction is still limited.
``
To go beyond eye-candy, additional data is
required, such as user profile, context and,
of course, business knowledge elements.
The user can interact with the information

displayed, for example, to trigger an action or
access additional details.
111
Big Data processing

Concept
The Internet has given rise to global
companies such as Amazon, Facebook,
Google or Twitter. They need to manage data
on a massive scale and to find ways to use it
beyond its original means. Strong open source
foundations have enabled them to instigate
solutions, such as NoSQL, to manage and
process big data.
The most widely used frameworks for big data
processing are MapReduce, developed by
Google, and its open source implementation
from Yahoo, Hadoop. Based on Java, it offers
a complete infrastructure for reliable, scalable
and distributed computing.
In the MapReduce framework, a computing
task can be executing on an arbitrarily large
set of nodes, as long as it has been expressed
as a sequence of Maps (independent
computations on subsets of the input data)
and Reduce (merge of Map results).
The MapReduce framework allows also
efficient querying of massive datasets, through
specialized, high level querying languages,
which are compiled into MapReduce
processes.
Trajectory
The MapReduce framework has aligned
High Performance Computing (HPC) with
the processing of massive datasets. The
popularity of its most famous implementation,
Hadoop, is driving the emergence of a full
ecosystem, which includes query tools, such
as Pig and Hive, Zookeeper control libraries,
Sqoop data loader, log management (Flume,
Scribe) and integration with other NoSQL
databases, such as Cassandra.
112
MapReduce implementations basically work in

batch mode. Real-time processing of datasets
is, at best, a makeshift job. Initiatives, such as
Googles Percolator or Yahoos S4 Distributed
Steam Computer Platform, are alternatives
towards a real time approach. Their evolution,
and possible convergence with the evolution
of Hadoop, should be followed closely as they
will form the basic platform for advanced realtime data intensive solutions.
Issues
Benefits
``
Enabler of strong authentication through its
uniqueness and difficulty to reproduce by
other means.
``
Enhances access control and security
systems.
``
Unlike a password, does not require any
memorization.
``
Keen interest in the government and
defense sectors.
Issues
``
Expressing computations as MapReduce
processes requires a new way of thinking
about computational-intensive algorithms
for developers, with a steep learning curve.
``
Requires the deployment of appropriate
equipment to capture the biometric
characteristics.
``
MapReduce is not suitable for real-time
computation and open-source real-time
alternatives to Hadoop are still immature.
``
Performance on large populations makes
it relevant only as a complement of
conventional authentication methods.
Biometrics
``
A small proportion of users face recurrent
difficulties with biometrics systems.
Concept
``
Possible user acceptance or regulatory
issues because of privacy concerns.
Automated use of unique and easy to

measure characteristics of a person to
determine and verify identity.
Can be physiological (such as fingerprints, iris
or veins) or behavioral (such as typing rhythm
or voice).
Trajectory
Multimodal biometrics combines several
recognizers to improve the reliability of the
system.
Biometric systems are characterized by their
false acceptation rate (FAR) and their false
rejection rate (FRR). Typically, when the FAR is
reduced, the FRR increases, and conversely.
Adaptive systems will be able to take
progressive evolution (voice or morphology
changes, for instance) into account.
Business Process Management

Systems
Concept
Enterprises increasingly look for business
agility, transparency and business process
control.
Business Process Management Systems
(BPMS) enable management of all the stages
of business process lifecycle: design, modeling,
execution, monitoring and optimization.
As such, they bring a next step in business
process automation: dealing with current
demands for business agility, cost reduction
and cost flexibility.
BPMS are tightly related to Business Process
Modeling (BPM), for the design and modeling
of business process, and to Service-Oriented
Architecture (SOA), as architectural patterns
and principles used to build the system.
Trajectory
Issues
BPMS can be seen as the next step after

ERP. They can handle complex processes:
modeling them, changing them, then
executing them as designed.
``
Implementing a BPMS using traditional
approaches for IT implementations may
bring fewer benefits than expected. A
change of mindset is required.
An increased ability to model, manage

and execute business rules will bring more
flexibility.
Cloud orchestration
Applications
``
Optimization and automation of complex
business processes with a high information
density or a repetitive character.
Concept
Cloud orchestration relates to the connectivity
of IT and business process levels between
cloud environments.
``
It also allows shopping for the best service
(for example the cheapest or best e-mail
provider) and, as such, it is fundamental to
the concept of cloud brokering.
Impact
``
Orchestration needs between clouds will
force cloud providers to collaborate on
open standard for communication across
and integration within cloud environments.
``
Current providers are creating a lockin model which inhibits large cloud
acceptance (this is not the only inhibitor).
Open standards that make changing clouds
and integrate cloud functions across many
clouds will speed the adoption of cloud
computing dramatically.
``
Cost reduction, by increasing the benefits of
a Lean implementation, for example.
As cloud emerges as a competitive sourcing

strategy (in comparison to having your own
or outsourced IT environment), a demand
is clearly arising for the integration of cloud
environments to create an end-to-end
managed landscape of cloud-based functions.
Benefits
Trajectory
Issues
``
Business agility.
``
Flexibility.
Expected to follow directly after the adoption

of cloud computing for business functions.
``
Cost reduction and flexibility.
This is foreseen as in the next 3 years.
``
Process transparency, with regard to
governance, risk management and
compliance (GRC), for example.
``
There is mistrust between cloud providers
and most orchestration attempts look at
supporting the multitude of APIs from
different providers.
Applications
``
Reaching significantly higher levels of
straight through processing (STP).
``
High quality process outputs.
Impact
``
Replacement of legacy applications in
information intense processes.
``
More direct influence of business workers
on how IT applications will work (model-toexecution).
``
Introduction of BPMSs may have a massive
impact on both the number of resources
needed to run a business process and on
the number of IT resources required to
maintain the legacy applications.
``
From simple API capabilities now available
from Google, Microsoft, SalesForce and
others, it will evolve into a service-based
architecture on a global scale in which
services are available to other services.
``
It solves the problem of non-connected
and non-integrated functional pillars and
in that way supports business process that
typically traverse IT domains.
Benefits
``
Ability to create a best of breed servicebased environment in which a change
of provider does not break the business
process.
``
It is similar to the standardization of the
Windows programming model.
``
Additionally, large investments are needed
from IT integrators, who are at the same
time see current cloud providers as there
future competition.
Computer Vision
Concept
Computer systems that are able to gather
information from images and become artificial
vision systems implemented in software and/
or hardware.
Trajectory
This field is relatively young from an industrial
point of view, but its academic background is
broad and strong.
113
There are, however, some more mainstream

applications available where computer vision
is being applied to resolve specific problems,
with solutions available from niche suppliers.
Applications
Issues
``
Acquiring context-related information from
many sources.
``
User context determination: users may
have different needs in a similar situation
according to their state of mind.
``
Storing information and enable queries on
it.
``
User acceptance, in particular with push.
``
Robots or autonomous vehicles used for
industrial process control, space exploration
or military purposes.
``
Context analysis: reasoning about events
and stored information.
``
Difficulty in associating potentially
correlated events.
``
Actions according to the reasoning.
``
Real time aggregation and filtering.
``
Surveillance systems counting people or
detecting events.
``
Administrative functions, such as privacy
and user preference management.
``
Data formatting, structuring and adaptation.
``
Indexing of image databases or
organization of image sequences.
``
Business support: transaction, metering and
payment, for instance.
Data visualization
``
Inspection of industrial assets, analysis of
medical images, modeling of surfaces or
shapes.
Benefits
Data visualization provides meaningful

information about a dataset by creating
a graphical representation of it. It can be
interactive.
Applications
``
Input device to a computer system.
``
Obstacle warning system in cars.
``
Autonomous aircraft landing or car driving.
Context broker
Concept
Context brokers collect and store context data,
deduce context and trigger context actions.
They are critical to the delivery of contextenriched services, which use information
about a person or object to proactively
anticipate the users need and serve up the
most appropriate content, product or service.
Trajectory
Context brokers are expected to hold a key
position in the future mobile landscape. They
will provide needed capabilities for enterprises
looking to enter the mobility space; in
particular, they will be an answer to the
complexity of sourcing and federating context
information.
114
``
Unleashed potential of context-enriched
services: exploitation of opportunities to
suggest action, activation of potential value
connections, monetization of actions and
contribution to cumulative and timely
business intelligence.
``
Mobile application designers can focus on
managing communications, applications
and user experience.
``
Revenue generation or enhanced user
experience: subscriptions, advertising and
increased customer loyalty.
Impact
``
The introduction of context-enriched
services, notably in mobility where
information push must be favored versus
pull, is the next frontier. The ability to
automate the processing of context
information will serve users by increasing
the agility, relevance and precision of IT
services.
Concept
Business intelligence tools, as well as

spreadsheets, feature traditional data
visualization capabilities, such as the ability
to generate curves, histograms or scatterplot
from vectorial data; data visualization covers
much more complex problems.
Data is often structured as a graph (typically,
social networks). Data visualization enables
these graphs to be represented and navigate
efficiently.
Numeric data is suitable for data visualization.
Basic visualization can help to find interesting
features in bi-dimensional or tri-dimensional
data.
Specialized, sophisticated data tools aim to
give answers to advanced data visualization
problems such as, visualization of text and of
data spaces with many dimensions.
Trajectory
Some Business Intelligence products include
advanced data visualization capabilities.
Open-source data visualization tools are
progressing quickly, but are often low level
and much less user-friendly.
The field could evolve significantly with other
advances in human-computer interfaces. For
example, immersive systems, which could
include advanced 3D graphics, are already
being employed in the astronomy and health
science fields, and also for the analysis of
complex economic data, such as the stock
market.
are evolutions of established standards that

exist in the digital identity, instant messaging,
telecommunications and Web worlds.
Trajectory
Recently gained popularity: the Facebook
privacy model debate and benefitting from
the popularity of the Diaspora initiative.
Might disrupt integrated social network actors,
such as Facebook. In the meantime standard
approaches for social networking are gaining
maturity.
E-paper
Concept
E-paper is a display technology that requires
no backlight and reflects light in almost the
same way as ordinary paper, generally using
an electrophotoretic approach.
Energy is only used to set the image. Once
done, no further charge is required to hold
the image indefinitely -- though another
application of charge allows more editing.
``
Allows enterprises and individuals to avoid
being locked into an integrated solution.
Image stability, wide viewing angle and high

contrast ratio make e-paper significantly more
comfortable to read than traditional electronic
displays -- its readability is much better under
direct sunlight.
``
A key tool for data understanding.
``
Better control on the data exposed through
social networks.
Trajectory
``
Can be used by data analysts as an
extension of their data analysis tools.
``
Better management of data security and
privacy.
The first color e-paper displays have just been

announced.
``
Provides inputs for decision makers.
``
May push established actors towards data
exchange and interconnection initiatives.
Benefits
Issues
``
Visualization of massive datasets, typically
stored in NoSQL databases or distributed
file systems, is still an open problem.
Distributed social networks
Benefits
Impact
``
Digital signage.
``
Emerging standards may have the same
impact as the standardization of e-mail
platforms in the late 90s.
``
Displays on smartcards.
Concept
Issues
Social network initiatives are developing social

networking platforms that could be operated
in a federated and distributed mode. Many
projects are federated under the federated
social web banner.
``
Lots of initiatives are popping out, with no
clear leader.
There is a strong emphasis on privacy and

control of personal data.
Open standards and protocols are emerging
to ensure several critical functions of social
networks: personal information sharing,
messaging, relationship management and
content sharing. These emerging technologies
Applications
``
Electronic book readers.
``
Standards are still heavily inspired by the
background they come from.
``
Distributed social networking platform still
lack maturity.
``
Integrated social network players have
attracted large communities; migrating from
those networks to distributed platforms
may be a long process.
``
Indication of charge, available balance,
contextual information on various objects
or devices.
Benefits
``
Low power use.
``
Very thin and possibly flexible.
``
Usable under natural light.
``
Very comfortable reading, with a contrast
ratio slightly above that of a newspaper.
Issues
``
E-papers poor refresh rate makes it
relatively unsuitable for highly interactive
applications.
115
Graphical codes
Concept
A graphical code is a symbol whose
shape and arrangement are designed to
be readable by a machine. More than a
pictogram, graphical codes are genuine digital
communication systems. They are as cheap
as they are simple to use.
Barcodes (or 1D codes) are graphical codes
involving intermittent black and white bars
whose width (or pattern) encodes 1s and 0s.
(Dolby Digital and Sony Dynamic Digital

Sound technologies).
``
Ticketing, couponing and even payments,
turning this niche identification technology
into a mass market service enabler.
``
Robust and efficient: the intrinsic data of
graphical codes damages robustness, but
improvements in reading software have
made on-the-fly reading possible.
Trajectory
The standards battle of the past few years
have scrambled the offer. However, users are
moving towards open standards and readers
are becoming multi-format.
Grid computing aims at delivering high

computational power for resource-intensive
applications (such as extensive simulations),
by loosely coupling a high number of
distributed resources or nodes; typically, one
application is distributed over many nodes.
Recently a subset of 2D codes emerged, AR

Tags, dedicated to augmented reality. They are
different from common 2D codes in that they
encode less data and are usually mixed with
logos or a pictogram.
Different from cloud computing, where

the goal is to provide scalable and cheap
IT resources to many different users and
applications.
Advanced image recognition techniques now

enable, with restrictions, direct recognition of
items such as objects, buildings or documents
without any dedicated graphical code.
Involves the sharing of heterogeneous

resources and data across a network, and
can operate across disparate platforms and
architectures even if they are located in
different administrative domains.
``
2D codes on goods or parcels in logistics
bearing URLs or additional information.
``
In the movie industry, 2D codes printed on
the sides of the 35mm film to encode sound
116
``
Optimized computing capability and capital
investment; lower costs, such as with the
removal of over-provisioning of hardware
and resources.
``
Cheap and pervasive: the real world
becomes clickable.
``
Ergonomics and awareness: people are
getting used to snapping codes; its almost
natural for any smartphone user.
``
Barcodes printed on manufactured goods
carrying a numerical sequence, which is an
entry key in a database.
``
Flexible operational grid computing
infrastructure can sense and respond to
fluctuations in customer processing needs.
Benefits
Two-dimensional codes (or 2D codes), such

as QR codes, DataMatrix or the Microsoft Tag,
consist of a fixed shape (for instance square,
rectangle or circle filled with modules in two or
more colors. They offer a higher information
spatial density.
Applications
spread over about 450 000 active

machines.
Holographic data storage

Concept
Holography records data through the full
3D volume of thick photosensitive storage
medium.
In addition, holography allows a million bits
of data to be written and read in parallel with
a single flash of light, rather than one bit at a
time. This enables significantly higher transfer
rates than current optical storage devices.
Grid computing
Concept
Applications
``
Combining high storage densities and fast
transfer rates with durable, reliable, low-cost
media, holography is poised to become
a compelling choice for next-generation
storage and content distribution needs. The
write once, read many (WORM) aspect,
coupled to a better longevity compared to
usual techniques, could be useful for safe
data archiving.
``
The flexibility of the technology allows
for the development of a wide variety of
holographic storage products that range
from hand-held devices for consumers to
enterprise storage products.
Requires a specific middleware to assign work

to nodes and deal with networking issues.
Benefits
``
Current storage capacities are seen to be
around 30 GB on a credit card or 1 TB on
a disk -- with a vision of 10 TB or more per
disk in the future.
``
Possibility of massive computing power: a
project such as Folding@Home develops a
computing power of more than 5 petaflops
IPv6
Issues
Concept
``
Migration from IPv4 to IPv6 is just starting,
even with the exhaustion of the IPv4
address space. As of mid-2011, less than 1%
of the Internet uses IPv6.
IPv6 was designed in the 90s to address

several deficiencies of IPv4.
Trajectory
The main reason for IPv6 development was
the expected exhaustion of the IPv4 address
space (encoded on 32 bits, thus limited to a
few billion addresses).
This exhaustion is now a reality; the last IPv4
address blocks were assigned by IANA to
regional internet registries in February 2011.
Several tunneling mechanisms or gateways
have been standardized by the IETF in order
to bypass IPv4 limitations. Until now, they
allowed to deal with the IP address shortage.
Migration has started nevertheless, mainly on
central infrastructures.
Benefits
``
Although the support for IPv6 in major
operating systems facilitates this transition,
many legacy devices cannot be updated
to support IPv6 and will not be replaced
overnight.
Machine learning
Concept
Machine learning is a subfield of artificial
intelligence concerned with the conception
and design of algorithms that allow computer
systems to learn (to acquire abilities and
improve with experience) without being
explicitly programmed.
The experience from which the system
is learning is usually given as a set of
observations or as a feedback from its
environment using sensors.
``
Simpler than IPv4.
``
Address space is much larger: encoded on
128 bits.
``
Includes adjacent features, such as address
assignment, network renumbering and auto
configuration.
``
Addresses some remarkable issues of IPv4:
support of multicast, need for embedded
security and efficient management of
mobile data traffic.
``
Guarantee of the continuity and growth of
the Internet.
``
Major enabler for the increase of the
number of peers connected to the Internet:
mobile internet. The internet of things will
also benefit from it.
The main concept behind machine learning

systems is generalization: the ability to infer
general principles from specific observations.
Practically, machine learning systems are
designed to solve one specific problem and
trained on a set of examples. For example, a
character recognition system will be designed
to associate the correct image with the
corresponding character and trained from
this set of image/character pairs. A wide range
of algorithms are used, including Bayesian
algorithms, decision tree learners, neural
networks and support vector machines.
Attempts to eliminate the need for human

intuition in data analysis, while other
approaches adopt a collaborative approach
between human and machine. It is used to
extract the relationship that is hidden among
large masses of data (data mining) and can be
used for on-the-job improvement of existing
machine designs.
Benefits
``
Aims at eliminating the need for human
intuition in data analysis while other
approaches adopt a collaborative approach
between human and machine.
``
Used to solve artificial intelligence tasks
or tasks for which humans naturally
outperform computers.
Applications
``
On-the-job improvement of existing
machine designs.
``
Pattern recognition: automatic reading,
biometric systems and voice recognition.
``
Natural language processing: automatic
translator, question answering and
conversational agents.
``
Robotics: computer vision, map-building
and self-learning walking bots.
``
Automatic diagnosis: medical and system
failure diagnosis.
``
Text classification: spam filtering and
automatic text database organization.
``
Data mining: extraction of knowledge
hidden among large masses of data, in
domains such as business intelligence or
customer relationship management.
``
Specific applications, such as astronomical
data analysis, market segmentation,
search engines, bioinformatics, chemical
informatics, brain-machine interfaces,
detecting credit card fraud, stock market
analysis, classifying DNA sequences, social
network analysis and game playing.
117
Machine-to-Machine
Issues
Concept
``
Fragmentation of the market.

generally to automate existing humanlyperformed operations (such as meter reading)
connected devices (for instance e-health).
Network (wired, wireless or mobile) and
middleware aspects of such a system are
managed by a M2M platform.
Trajectory
Billions of objects, such as smart meters or
automotive on-board units, are expected to be
connected within the next decade.
The market is composed of verticals
relying on the M2M platform: to ensure
communications with machines (in terms
of QoS, cost and security) and to be the
foundation of specific applications by
abstracting the communications and
management of the machines.
Applications
``
Utilities, retail, industries, telcos, health and
transportation.
``
Optimization of operations by automating
operations previously done by humans.
Benefits
``
The limited capabilities of connected
devices are compensated by the flexibility
and sophistication of the M2M platform.
``
Manageability, asset tracking, billing and
network cost optimization.
``
Lower environmental impact.
``
Improved services for end-users: accurate
billing, information and tools to optimize use
and new usages (such as e-health).
118
Current trend goes towards Service-Oriented

Architectures (SOA) over web services using
representational state transfer (REST) style,
and a growing role of JavaScript-based
processing on the client-side, with libraries
such as jQuery.
``
Lack of standardization.
``
Business model and ecosystem to be
created.
Mashups
Benefits
Concept
``
For application developers: easy leverage
of existing data and services to create new
ones, shorter time-to-market and flexibility.
Mashups are web applications that take

advantage of web services and fast integration
to combine data, elements or functions from
several sources in order to offer original
services.
For example, the website of a community
could include a map from Google Maps to
locate members, a photo album from Flickr to
share pictures of latest events and a donation
button from PayPal to collect some funding.
Some consumer mashup platforms aim at
allowing non-technical users to create their
own mashups with visual tools.
``
For data and services providers: new market
segments and focus on core business.
Issues
``
Quality of service management in a multilayered context.
``
Operational dependency from a number of
external suppliers.
``
To get the most from combined sources,
some orchestration is required.
Mesh networks
Concept
On the business side, mashups are closely

related to cloud computing and software
as a service (SaaS). Because of enterprise
operational requirements, usually some
emphasis is put on access control, security,
quality of service and governance.
Mesh networks are decentralized, local area

networks, formed by meshes of peer nodes.
Full-mesh has each node connected to every
other node, while partial-mesh has each node
connected only to some nodes.
Trajectory
The concept was popularized with Web
2.0. There is no specific standard to
create mashups, but a collection of open
technologies such as AJAX, REST or SOAP,
and formats such as XML or JSON (JavaScript
Object Notation). From an architectural point
of view, mashups are divided in three layers:
data, web services and presentation. There
are two main kinds of mashups: web-based
(where the assembly is done at web page level
in users browser) and server-based (where
the aggregation occurs on the server, which in
turns delivers the result to the browser).
A mobile mesh uses wireless technology to

connect the nodes.
It can be static, with devices always plugged
in, or dynamic, with devices free to attach to,
detach from and move around the network.
In the later situation, mesh networks can be
referred to as ad hoc networks.
Benefits
Miniaturized power
Mobile operating systems
``
A decentralized and robust model where
each node has possibly a different owner.
Concept
Concept
Nanogenerators are energy-harvesting

devices based on highly miniaturized
structures capable of converting ambient
energy, such as kinetic energy, into electric
energy.
A mobile operating system (mobile OS) is

specifically designed to control a mobile
device, such as a smartphone or a tablet.
``
Ad hoc routing increases stability in
the event of node failure or changing
conditions.
``
Mobile mesh networks are relatively cheap
to set up and maintain.
``
Channel reuse allows for higher capacity.
``
Since only the nearest node needs to be
reached, the power requirement may be
lower.
Applications
``
General applications: low-cost and zero
management networking and resilient
networking.
``
Mobile-static applications: internet
access for disadvantaged communities,
metropolitan meshed Wi-Fi coverage,
building automation, low-cost industrial
sensing and networking.
``
Mobile-dynamic applications: military
sensing, emergency networking, product
tagging, driver warning systems and mobile
networks in public places connectible by
any device.
``
Mobile-with-VoIP applications: flexible, lowcost telephony.
Issues
``
The weakest link in a mesh network can
prevent it from being fully connected.
``
Adoption of meshed networks could
be harnessed by traditional network
incumbents who have been disrupted by
this new approach.
Kinetic energy harvesting is usually based

on piezoelectric material, such as zinc-oxide
nanowires.
Although its fundamental role is similar to that

of a personal computer OS (such as Windows),
there are significant differences: notably in
terms of user interface, usage model and
power efficiency.
Kinetic energy can be taken from muscles

(heartbeat, respiration, shoulder move) or any
periodic movement.
Because of this, all attempts to squash a

general-purpose OS into a mobile device have
failed until now.
The power output being still small

(microwatts), it must be seen as a complement
to a battery.
Mobile OS are often enriched by app stores,

enabling the user to easily find and install
applications.
Other energy-harvesting devices such as

photovoltaic cells can also be used.
Trajectory
Thin film batteries are lithium-ion batteries

composed of thin materials, allowing the
battery to be just millimeters thick.
3D batteries are a kind of lithium-ion batteries
that exploit 3D nanowire structures to ensure
high energy and power densities.
Applications
``
Self-powered devices.
``
Smart wearable systems.
``
Body-implantable devices.
The first generations of mobile phones, called

feature phones, were usually built upon an
embedded operating system, with fixed and
limited features.
Then Personal digital assistants (PDA) and
early smartphones, which were much more
powerful, open to custom applications and
controlled by a prefiguration of the concept of
mobile OS.
The introduction of the iPhone by Apple and
the launch of Android by Google have fully
popularized the concept.
Although strongly dominated by Apple iOS
and Google Android, the mobile OS realm
is still fragmented, quickly moving and very
innovative -- in a race towards even more
powerful and user-friendly devices.
119
Benefits
``
Ease of use.
``
Leverage of device capabilities (touch
screen, natural connectivity and embedded
sensors, for instance).
``
Power-efficiency (battery life).
``
Driver of the development of cloud-enabled
applications and web computing.
Impact
``
As mobile devices become more powerful
and start predating some usage segments
of personal computers, the operating
systems market could be disrupted and
enter a period of strong fragmentation.
Mobile payments
Concept
Payments for products or services between
two parties, with a mobile device, such as a
mobile phone, to facilitate the act of paying.
Fully personal, carrying users data, always
accessible and connected to the Cloud, the
mobile can drastically improve the payment
process, bringing more simplicity, cost
reduction and contextual services, for both
buyers and merchants.
Trajectory
Mobile payments have been a topic of interest
for some time now. However, in the last
two years there has been another boost in
investigation and development in this area,
driven by some new market trends:
``
Firstly and as the major driver, the
intensified competition in the mobile
telecom market has forced the mobile
network operators (MNOs) to look for
new revenue streams and value-added
services that would differentiate them from
competitors.
120
``
A second trend is the mass roll-out of
mobile smartphones in the last year. Those
devices are capable of offering enhanced
services with additional security around
payment transactions leading to a much
higher user acceptance; furthermore, the
moderate price range of those new devices
is allowing the device manufacturer to
integrate the required mobile payment
technologies, such as NFC (Near Field
Communication).
``
Thirdly, there are an increasing number of
requirements from the retail (to increase the
speed of the payment-only process in their
shops), the transport (public transportation,
taxis, public parking) and the entertainment
(cinemas, restaurants) markets. In
particular, alternatives to the cash-based
payments could reduce the payment
cycle considerably; furthermore, it would
reduce both fraud risk and merchants cash
handling costs.
Applications
``
The existing payment business is mostly
card based, but with the introduction of
powerful mobile devices it is possible
to improve the user experience and the
efficiency of the payment process; thus,
payments could move from the card-based
approach to a device-based one.
Benefits
``
A secured container (for instance, the
secure element of a NFC-enabled phone)
for one or several dematerialized payment
cards; the mobile acts as a contactless card
and the buyer merely swipes it to pay.
``
A new way of accessing a cloud-based
payment solution with simple and
secured authentication. This opens new
opportunities, as the payment can be done
anywhere and various payment means can
be used.
``
Easy access to contextual information
on the payment, enabling better fraud
detection.
``
An opportunity for additional services,
taking advantage of the interactive
capabilities of the device, such as optional
insurance, linked offers, loyalty, credit and
self-care functionalities.
``
For the merchant: faster payment
processing, less processing costs for cash
payments and new customer segments.
``
For mobile network operators: incremental
revenue owing to additional value-added
services offered to the customer base
across the different markets.
``
For payment service providers: new
customer segments and new business
partners (new merchants). They also
can share some profit from the included
acquiring business.
Impact
``
Smartphones, which are the main
enabler for mobile payments, are quickly
penetrating the market with worldwide
quarterly sales around 100 million units and
a double-digit growth of sales volumes.
Issues
``
Additional technology, such as NFC and
secure elements, is required to ensure
comfortable and secured transactions; this
technology must also be deployed on the
merchant side, on point of sale terminals.
``
Trusted Service Management is required
to deal with the complexity of deploying
and managing secure applications and
credentials on diverse devices and across
various networks.
Multi-touch user interface
Nanocomputers
Concept
Concept
Multi-touch user interfaces (MTUI) can

recognize many gestures from multiple places
on a device simultaneously, allowing several
users to interact with an application at the
same time or one user to interact at different
points with multiple inputs.
Literally, denotes computing hardware with

fundamental components that measure in the
realm of nanometers.
Trajectory
Nanocomputers involve nanodevices that can

be combined to create nanocircuits, which are
the base of extended nanosystems, including
nanoprocessors and nanomemories.
Multi-touch screens have been widely

popularized by smartphones and tablets.
Trajectory
Most interfaces are using capacitive effect

to detect fingers close to the surface of the
screen. Some interfaces can also recognize
differences in touch, for example, with heat or
pressure.
Impact
``
Drives user interface changes, which in
turn will enable new usages and needs:
for example for face-to-face-plus-computer
interactions.
Benefits
``
Multi-touch user interfaces provide users
with richer, more immediate interaction,
including swiping, pinching and rotations.
Applications
``
Now commonplace on devices such as
smartphones and tablets. It is also being
included in the Microsoft Surface product
group and other interactive terminals.
``
Usable in multimedia collaboration tools
such as interactive whiteboards.
Issues
``
Most multi-touch screens are based
on capacitive technology, which is less
accurate than its resistive counterpart.
Future nanocomputers could be evolutionary,

scaled-down versions of todays computers
or they may be revolutionary, based on some
new device or molecular structure not yet
developed.
Benefits
``
Massive increases in memory capacity
and processing power, leading to the cost
of computing hardware being significantly
reduced.
``
Each function would require less power,
increasing battery life and reducing cooling
needs.
``
Unlimited possibilities for networking
swarms of cheap nanocomputers to create
massively networked architectures that are
far more powerful than anything available
today.
``
Nanoagents.
``
Building block of ubiquitous computing.
There are different research lines inside

this wide field: information extraction,
spoken language recognition, automatic
summarization, question answering and
machine translation.
Trajectory
Progressed quite slowly compared to its initial
promises.
Early adopters are nevertheless finding
significant productivity improvements in
concrete solutions: mostly in healthcare sector,
where these technologies have being used
over the last 20 years.
Applications
``
Many applications follow from NLP: from
automatic summarization to text analysis,
including question answering or sentiment
analysis.
``
NLP is now widely used to allow dialogue
between users and interactive voice
response (IVR) systems.
``
Websites are increasingly using
conversational agents (chatterbots) to
dialog with users. These agents are using
NLP to understand user queries and answer
in natural languages.
``
With a much lower ambition, pseudonatural language processing is using a
classifier to determine what a naturallanguage query is about and direct the user
towards the relevant person or service.
Natural-language processing
Issues
Concept
``
True understanding of human languages
would require human level artificial
intelligence; therefore, performances of NLP
are necessarily limited to restricted cases
and fields.
Natural-language processing (NLP) is the

speech data and extract valuable information
from it.
121
Near Field Communication

Concept
Near Field Communication (NFC) allows
devices such as mobile phones to
communicate wirelessly over a very short
distance and perform tag or card reading,
card emulation and device-to-device data
exchange.
Smartphones significantly increase
the potential of NFC by enabling easy
development of mobile applications using
NFC whilst leveraging interactive capabilities
and network access of the phone.
Trajectory
Although hundreds of trials have been
conducted, industrial roll-out is not yet here
because of a chicken-and-egg problem
between devices, infrastructure and services.
Major influencers of the smartphone market,
such as Apple or Google, have or are known
to have strong interest in NFC.
Samsung Nexus S, the first Android NFC
smartphone, was released in 2011, pushing
other actors for a wider adoption of NFC.
Applications
``
Tag reader: the phone reads a NFC tag to
trigger an action. Access control, couponing,
ticketing: the phone acts as a (wireless)
badge, a coupon or a ticket.
``
Payment and micro-payment: simply swipe
to pay.
Benefits
``
A natural and intuitive way of interacting
with objects from the real world.
``
Dematerialization of tickets, coupons,
badges and cards into the mobile phone; no
longer a need to carry a bulging wallet.
122
``
NFC tags can be attached to many kinds of
objects or places. Reading them can trigger
new kinds of interaction, such as providing
related information, triggering an update on
social media or initiating a transaction.
Issues
``
Secure functions, such as card emulation
or access control, require an additional
component, called secure element, which
can be built-in into the phone or located on
a SIM card or in part of a specific memory
card.
``
Trusted Service Management (TSM)
is needed to properly manage secure
elements in a complex ecosystem (telcos,
banks, transport, government, cities...).
Network intelligence
Applications
``
Sophisticated (for example applicationdependent) tracking, charging and billing
of traffic.
``
Cyber security and lawful interception.
``
Service assurance (QoS and QoE), traffic
and infrastructure optimization.
``
Market research.
Benefits
``
Clearer view on the data traffic flowing in
the network, enabling the improvement
of operations, expansion of services and
tracking of rogue activities.
``
Security controls, applicable not only to
users access to networks, but also while
networks are being used.
Concept
Impact
Network intelligence aims at addressing

the need for information visibility and for
understanding of real-time traffic.
``
Network intelligence will help telecom
operators to move from the dumb pipe
model to the smart pipe model.
It uses source, content and context of data

crossing a network to correlate, interpret,
analyze and report exchanged traffic.
It is similar to Business Intelligence solutions,
which emerged to unlock information hidden
in the enterprise.
Trajectory
The explosion in volume of data exchanged
on IP networks is threatening their technical
and economical balance.
``
Billing and CRM systems will need to be
upgraded as a consequence.
Issues
``
Implementation of DPI (Deep Packet
Inspection), an essential layer of Network
Intelligence.
``
Categorization of the metadata of the
content captured.
``
The need for constant updates of the
solutions as new applications and protocols
continuously appear in the market.
``
Debates around network neutrality.
While IP network traffic was usually

treated as a single data flow, with few to
no understanding of what is exchanged,
discriminating data flows becomes critical.
Network Intelligence provides context to the
recognized traffic by extracting metadata
(who/what/where/when) in real-time.
NoSQL
some major solutions, typically HBase (an

open source Big Table clone), are currently
emerging.
Concept
NoSQL, which stands for Not Only SQL,
refers to a trend in the field of database
management systems that aims to give up
the classical relational model.
Open source hardware
Data stores are typically key-value stores,

allowing basic, low-level data access.
Open source hardware (OSH) tries to extend

the ideas and methodologies popularized
in open source software development to
hardware development.
Trajectory
Introduced by major web players facing
growth in their data storage needs that
the performance growth of their relational
databases could not handle. They internally
developed their own NoSQL solutions: Big
Table for Google, Cassandra for Facebook,
Project Voldemore for LinkedIn and Dynamo
for Amazon.
Until recently, only a handful of players had
performance requirements that relational
database could not meet. However, with the
raise of Web 2.0, and possibly the internet
of things and context aware computing in a
near future, the requirement for massive data
storage is evolving and will involve a growing
number of companies and organizations.
Applications
``
Highly distributed, fault tolerant, highly
available data storage systems that can run
on arbitrarily large number of nodes and
manage massive amount of data, typically
terabytes or petabytes.
Issues
``
Data stores do not feature most SQL
capabilities and therefore require new skills
and additional effort from the application
developers and databases administrators.
``
NoSQL is still a young and immature
field and the choice between the existing
solutions is still a tricky problem. However,
Concept
In this model, documentation, such as

schematics, diagrams, list of parts and related
specifications, are published with open source
licenses so other teams can modify and
improve them, based on specific needs.
Sometimes they are combined with more
traditional open source software, such as
operating systems, firmware or development
tools.
Applications
``
Arduino is a good example of open source
hardware. This very customizable small
microcontroller board has generated a lot
of evolutionary descendants, in various
form factors and with various uses, such as
wearable computing. Other evolutions bring
extensibility capabilities, such as wireless
network connectivity over Wi-Fi or ZigBee.
``
Arduino is supported by a grassroots
community of hobbyists that tinker with
the platform for innovative uses from art
installations to electrical metering solutions,
including internet-connected devices.
Recently, it started to get support from big
companies, such as Google and Telefonica.
``
The field of OSH is expanding over
very different industries: processors
(OpenSPARC, OpenCores), servers
(Facebooks Open Compute), 3D Printing
and prototyping (RepRap), Ambient
Information Devices (the chumby), mobile
phones (Openmoko), notebooks (VIA

OpenBook) and robotics (OpenRAVE), for
instance.
``
OSH can be a useful platform for
prototyping of new devices, such as
internet-connected sensor devices.
Combined with 3D printing devices, it
forms the basis for the popularization of the
distributed fab lab model proposed by MIT.
``
In some scenarios, OSH is closely related to
more traditional open source software. For
example, both Linux and Android operating
systems are being used in embedded
devices, replacing custom, proprietary realtime operating systems more each day.
Impact
``
Although it needs to mature, OSH can
have a high impact in several scenarios: for
example, custom-connected devices for
sensor networks can be based in extensible
OSH platforms, such as Arduino.
``
OSH is an innovation tool, enabling rapidprototyping of custom solutions -- even
more so when combined with 3D printers.
``
Some OSH projects are looking for low-cost
devices that could be adopted by emergent
economies. One example is the Global
Village Construction set of farm machines
from Open Source Ecology
``
Support by big companies, such as Google,
Facebook and Telefonica, could accelerate
adoption by enterprises.
Issues
``
For many uses, the hardware needs a quite
demanding certification processes: for
security or radio electric interference, for
instance. This is usually out of reach of the
small communities that support an OSH
project.
``
Projects are small and fabrication nowadays
is in small batches, so cost-efficiency is low
for now.
123
``
Some project communities are very
technical and sometimes a little
underground, so they clash with more
business-oriented companies.
``
As with open source software, intellectual
property issues could block some
developments: OSH licenses are not as
established as software licenses.
Open source software

Concept
Software for which the source code is made
publicly available, so that anyone can adapt
it to their needs and possibly contribute to its
improvement.
Open source software is, by essence,
developed in a collaborative manner.
Benefits
Other kinds of PUF were studied, based on

the behavior of electronic components: for
example, a standard static random-access
memory (SRAM) can behave like a PUF.
``
Source code is available, allowing users to
review it and adapt the software to their
needs (and to fix bugs).
``
Open source software is often based on
open standards, easing interoperability.
Applications
``
Security.
``
Lower cost (most often) and less risk of
vendor lock-in.
Benefits
``
Common needs are often addressed very
quickly and efficiently (including bug fixes).
``
PUF-equipped devices have an intrinsic,
unclonable signature.
Issues
Impact
``
Some vertical projects get most of their
contributions from a single player, making
their sustainability questionable.
``
Any device with a SRAM (e.g. smartphones)
could take advantage of it to address
security issues.
``
Possible governance problems sometimes
lead to forks.
Issues
``
Choosing between different open source
software options may be difficult.
``
To ensure a strong level of security, tamperresistant techniques should be used.
Physical Unclonable Functions

(PUF)
Plastic transistors
Trajectory
Concept
The open source software model is

particularly efficient in cases where there are
many contributions coming from a variety of
sources: for example, operating systems and
internet software or development tools.
Physically Unclonable Functions (PUF) can

be seen as hardware biometrics or a way to
produce a fingerprint of a physical object.
Manufacturing technologies now allow us to

create polymer-based transistors.
Not to be confused with free (of charge)

software: there are many licensing models,
with diverse constraints, which must be
considered carefully.
Major open source projects are supported by

organizations, (foundations) and get support
from business players.
In the last years, some companies have
questionably used the open source term to
describe software for which source code is
available, but cannot be legally modified or
redistributed.
The development of cloud computing raises
new licensing issues.
124
Concept
Latest advances allow semiconductors to be

printed on various substrates.
Authentication of a PUF-equipped device

is performed using a challenge-response
protocol. The server sends challenges, which
are processed through the PUF to generate
responses. Responses are checked against the
devices profile, previously recorded during an
enrollment phase. The device is authenticated
if its answers match its profile.
Computer processors and memories have

now been built on top of flexible plastic.
Applications
``
Flexible displays.
``
Printable computer circuits.
``
Transparent circuits.
Trajectory
``
Wearable computing.
The initial idea was to use physical material in

which some properties can be easily extracted
but hard to characterize and reproduce, such
as bubbles in a plastic film. However, such
early kinds of PUF required a huge amount
of effort to be integrated into a traditional
information system.
``
Smart bandage
``
RFID tags.
``
Plastic solar cells.
Privacy enhancing technologies

Concept
The career and personal life of internet users
could be severely impacted if they are not
cautious enough with the personal data they
(or relatives) make available -- through posts,
multimedia content sharing, for instance.
Privacy enhancing technologies (PET) aim
to address this concern by controlling the
disclosure of data.
Trajectory
Early work started in the mid-70s, with
concepts of anonymity and unlinkability.
Recent business focus has been on
mechanisms for digital identity management
with privacy respect.
End-user awareness is growing, mainly
because of personal data leaks related to
social media; at the same time, attitudes
are changing and there is a decreasing
level of privacy concern, illustrated by a
generational comparison between parents
and transparents.
Applications
``
Identity Management: service providers
cannot gather more information than
required on users from identity providers.
``
Electronic Cash: electronic coins ensuring
user anonymity, unless duplicated
(counterfeit).
``
Social media: privacy by design.
``
Trust-building measures, including nontechnical mechanisms such as legal norms,
insurances and trust supporting institutions
such as Data Protection Acts, can help to
reduce the risk level on all risk layers.
Issues
``
PET is being focused on data leaks during
transactions; other measures are required
to ensure usage control and transparent
processing policy compliance.
RFID
Concept
RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) uses
radio waves to exchange data between an
electronic tag and a reader.
Tags, which can be read-only or read-write,
enclose a microchip on which a unique
identification number is stored and connected
to small embedded antenna.
Passive tags are powered by the readers
electromagnetic field. Active tags are selfpowered, for instant by a battery.
Advanced tags can include further features,
such as sensing their environment or
collecting data.
Trajectory
``
Although quite well-known, this technology
is still not used to its full advantage.
``
Standardization of tags and middleware has
progressed (EPC Gen2, EPCIS).
``
Cheap printable RFID tags are available.
Impact
``
Loss of privacy can be considered the
most important emerging risk for future IT
systems. User privacy is an asset to protect
within a given system or community and
becomes a protection goal in itself.
Applications
``
Supply-chain management.
``
Logistics, asset management and location
tracking.
``
Automated person/item pairing.
``
Local log of full item history.
``
Automatic error and fault diagnosis.
Benefits
``
Unique identification and location of
individual items in a random stack.
``
Read and write of dynamic or secure data
on an individual item.
``
Automated data collection: real-time
inventory of multiple items with no required
human intervention and with fewer errors.
``
Data collection without the need for the
object to be within the line of sight of the
reader; Item-tagging can be achieved in a
polluted, tough or wet environment.
Issues
``
Privacy concerns may hinder deployment if
not considered carefully.
Semantic data integration

Concept
In environments where data plays
significant role, there is a strong movement
from software-oriented to data-oriented
architectures. Moreover data itself is turning
to be more complex: going beyond RDBMS
table-like structures and becoming more
interconnected and heterogeneous, coming
from multiple sources and not always
following fixed schemas.
Semantic data integration is an umbrella term
for combining heterogeneous data using
open standards and semantic technologies:
employing triplestores and graph-like data
representation (RDF), following linked data
approach and using expressive SPARQL
language for data retrieving.
``
Security tagging and anti-tampering.
125
Existing and legacy SQL-based solutions are

already being turned into a semantic data
cloud and numerous methods are under
development. Standardization efforts for such
transformations (RDB2RDF) are enabling the
retrieval of more valuable information out of
the existing data maze by combining it with
other data sources.
Semantic search engines
Issues
Concept
``
The semantic web is still a vision and will
not exist in the near future at the global web
scale; therefore semantic search is currently
limited in its use of publicly available
semantic information.
Applications
Two distinct technology fields exist: semantic

annotations and natural language processing
(NLP).
``
All fields where integration of diverse data
sources facilitates better decision making
and enhance analyses processes, such as:
finance (fraud detection, financial market
analyses), intelligence (market intelligence
and statistics), health and pharmacology,
genetics and the geospatial domain.
Impact
``
The Open Linked Data initiative proved
the linked data approach to be viable for
publishing government public data in a
most interoperable manner. Technological
solutions supporting this approach are
becoming mature, not only as research
tools but also for business applications,
with many companies already providing
commercial support for semantic solutions
(triplestores, reasoners) as well as using
them in production.
``
These solutions bring enterprise data
integration to the next level by integrating
heterogeneous sources and augmenting
corporate data with publicly available
databases.
Issues
``
Semantic integration is facilitated by the
definition of vocabularies, often ontologies.
When different sources use different
concept definitions, correspondences
between vocabularies must be established.
Automating this process is still an open
challenge.
126
Semantic search is based on the notion of

improving search engines by making the
system aware of the meaning (semantics) of
both the searcher query and the content of
the searchable data.
``
NLP-based extraction of semantic
information may not be reliable.
Semantic Web
Concept
``
The Semantic Web is an extension of the
Web that aims to be directly processed by
machines.
Semantic annotations consist in information

associated to data describing their semantics
in a formalized way. When semantically
enriched data is available, such as in the
semantic web initiative, a semantic search
engine can directly make queries into this
data to provide meaningful answers to the
searcher.
When no semantic information is available,
NLP techniques allow extraction of semantic
information from a raw, humanly readable text.
Benefits
``
Aims to provide the searcher with an
answer to the question he actually asked,
instead of retrieving a set of documents in
which the answer is likely to be available.
Trajectory
Many enterprise search engines advertise
themselves as semantic search engines. The
use of semantics to improve search efficiency,
mainly through NLP techniques, is a clear
trend in the field.
``
Unrelated to any kind of semantic analysis
or natural language processing, it is based
on the idea that semantic information is
explicitly provided and not inferred in any
way: semantic web content must include
machine-readable metadata associated to
humanly readable content and specifying
its semantics (i.e. meaning).
``
Ontologies are used formalize and
standardized the semantic web. An
ontology is a formal representation of the
concepts associated to a given domain,
expressed as the graph of relationships
between them. Once an ontology for a
given domain is built and recognized as a
standard, semantic information about this
domain can be exposed, shared, queried
and processed.
``
Most important standards developed by
the W3C for the semantic web are RDF
(to store semantic meta-data), OWL (to
define ontologies) and the SPARQL query
language.
Some companies are providing, to a limited

extent, semantic search engines on the Web.
These engines are also heavily based on NLP.
Trajectory
Today, the semantic web at a global scale is
still a dream. However, related ideas, concepts,
standards and technologies are used at
smaller scale to provide semantically-enriched
services.
Applications
They may include further capabilities, such as

GPS and internet access.
Serious gaming
Can also include mobile devices with sensors,

such as smartphones or vehicle on-board
units.
Any games that do not have entertainement,

enjoyment or fun as their primary purpose.
Underlying concepts are the foundation of the

internet of things (IoT).
``
Exposing machine-interpretable information
enables automation of many tasks.
Currently, designing a program to fetch
specific information, such as the price of a
given product, the weather forecast, what
is on TV the next evening or the time of the
next train to a given city, is always specific
and often complex and unreliable: all the
more, with non-obvious queries, such as
the best price of product X when sold in
packs of two with a 2-month return policy
or the list of films in which actors X and Y
played together. With the semantic web, it
would be as easy as querying a database.
``
In the military context, detection and
acquisition of information about enemy
movements and terrain parameters.
Issues
Benefits
``
Ontologies are hard to design and
their relevance can always be debated.
Consensus around the same standards is
difficult to obtain, even in very specific fields.
``
Can be embedded into many different
objects in many different environments.
Sensors vary in size, with some available on
a microscopic scale.
``
Discarding spurious information is difficult.
``
Inexpensive, but vary in price according to
their capabilities; prices are dropping.
``
Data providers may not have interest in
providing semantically-enriched information
since they usually generate revenue from
advertisements that have to be seen by
human beings.
Sensor networks
Concept
A generalized term for spatially distributed
devices with at least one sensor, and able
to detect and monitor events. Each has a
transceiver, controller and power source.
Data can be passed between them, across
the wireless network and back to the monitor.
Networks need to be self-managing and able
to auto-reroute.
Applications
``
Detection of environmental changes (such
as pressure/temperature), movement, for
instance.
``
Warning of impending disasters.
Concept
For example: a role game teaching vendors

how to behave through different situations;
a game that illustrating the philosophy
of a brand or a company; a game where
the riddles can be solved only by learning
something.
Serious gaming builds on simulation (to train
by practice) and gamification.
``
Monitoring machine health/wear.
Applications
``
Vehicle traffic monitoring.
``
Training: serious games are in use by
surgeons to make their movements perfect,
by soldiers to lower fear in combat and by
pilots to make them face the unexpected,
by children to learn to read.
``
Surveillance and security.
``
Deployable in adverse environments:
especially useful where they are required to
be deployed outside.
``
Self-managing and able to automatically
reroute data in the event of a node failure.
``
Can provide large amounts of data for
analysis, enabling businesses to make
better informed decisions.
``
Great potential for providing an early
warning system in a wide variety of
scenarios.
``
Some are even capable of detecting the
approximate location of an individual node,
based on the route a message takes, the
signal strength or packet timing.
``
Communication (advergaming, contraction
of advertisement and gaming): games are
developed to promote goods such as cars.
``
Human Resources: increasing use of serious
games to recruit and for training.
Issues
``
Development requires a specific
methodology to merge the best of
game development with more classical
applications or services.
``
Creating a serious game can be expensive.
Speech technologies
Concept
Voice processing refers to all the treatments
of voice or audio once it has been digitalized.
Speech and voice processing technologies
include basic capabilities, such as automatic
speech recognition (ASR), voice and speaker
verification, speech synthesis (text-to-speech
or TTS) and speech-to-text conversion (STT)
techniques.
127
Trajectory
Tablets
The concept of machines recognizing and

understanding human speech has been
a goal for many years. Applications in the
human-computer interaction field are
greatly enhanced through speech and voice
processing technologies.
Concept
New applications, such as speech analytics

in contact centers, searching, automatic
translators and automatic indexing capabilities
in audio and multimedia content, all use some
basic speech processing technologies.
``
Tablets may help the media industry to find
a new business model.
Built around a multi-touch screen, with no

physical keyboard, tablets are complete
mobile computers. They take advantage of a
gap between smartphones and laptops, which
was not really filled by netbooks.
Tablets usually rely on a network connection
(Wi-Fi or mobile) to get access to a wider
range of services and applications.
``
A significant market for professional apps
(field forces, sales forces and executives
alike).
``
A significant driver of cloud computing.
Issues
``
Currently consumer-oriented; professional
use may trigger specific issues (for instance,
control of apps installed by the user).
``
Fragmentation: several operating systems.
Trajectory
The technology is now mature, robust and

entering mainstream applications.
Tablets in their latest form have been

popularized by the Apple iPad.
Universal translators
Applications
This new market is expected to move

quickly, with strong innovative competition,
reminiscent of the smartphone market.
Speech recognition, machine translation and

voice synthesis have significantly progressed
and can be combined to deliver universal
translators capable of transforming text or
speech in a language to text or speech in
another one.
``
Telephony and contact center applications
for fixed transaction processing, account
enquiry and call dialing. This can free up
call center representatives to deal with high
net-worth transactions.
Applications
``
Can replace laptops in many of the use
cases where data entry is not too intensive.
``
Dictation/transcription systems (only where
it is possible to invest the effort in system
training).
``
Will enable new usages, such as standing
up face-to-face with a customer.
``
New improvements and capabilities in
spoken natural language processing.
``
At home, an interactive multimedia
magazine on the coffee table.
``
Multimedia content management.
``
Conversational and spoken avatars: using
spoken and interactive virtual assistants in
enriched web applications and for other
channels, such as mobile
Although far from perfect, current universal

translators are already delivering promising
results.
Statistical methods, based on huge multilingual corpora and continuously enriched
by user feedback, have driven machine
translators to reasonably good results on not
too challenging cases.
``
Easier to use in many cases where a fullfeatured laptop is overkill.
``
Faster and easier customer experience,
including instant on and long battery life.
``
Thanks to app stores, users can easily
access and install new applications.
``
Enhanced access control and security
applications with voice and speaker
verification (for instance, a password reset
application).
``
May disrupt the personal computing world
and challenge Windows dominance.
128
Trajectory
Benefits
``
Complex transactions: for example,
selecting and booking a hotel. This can
extend the reach of existing web-based
systems to non-web users, including mobile
phone users.
``
Hands-free operation, such as in multiple
devices, biometric security, speech-tospeech translation and speech-enabled
web.
Concept
Results are usually better when the domain is

specialized.
``
Natively network-oriented; might be a
revival of the network computer concept.
Applications
``
Automatically translated interlingual oral or
written exchanges.
Impact
``
Multilingual call centers.
``
Data traffic from tablets may be challenging
for mobile infrastructures.
Impact
``
Will lower the language barrier.
Issues
Issues
``
Dominance of some players having access
to the databases and feedback data
enabling the translation quality.
``
Cost is currently impeding the technology
in most industries, excluding the military.
However, work on miniaturization and
energy efficiency, aimed at lowering the
threshold for mass market production, is in
progress.
``
Still a lot of weaknesses that make it
unsuitable when high quality translation is
mandatory.
Virtual retinal display

Concept
Virtual Retinal Display (VRD) entails
broadcasting images directly onto the retina
of the human eye.
Lasers and LEDs are used to project the
image, with horizontal and vertical scanners
behaving in much the same way as in
televisions to selectively allow colors through.
To the user, images and information will
appear as if floating in front of the eye. So far
it has successfully been tested in standard
definition; high definition (HD) now seems
within reach.
Benefits
``
Requires only a tiny amount of power when
compared to a mini LCD screen.
``
Reduces reading time (including for some
vision-impaired users) and can act as always
present guides for many industries and
tasks.
``
Can be projected onto the retina of just
one eye, enabling the display to effectively
augment the real world with Augmented
Reality. If used on both eyes, can simulate
3D scenes.
``
Has been used in the health research sector
to allow patients with retinal damage to
identify blind spots; it may also be possible
to compensate for blind spots by projecting
onto areas of the retina through which the
patient can see.
``
Now impacting in defense.
``
In some cases, it can be used as an
alternative to content delivery networks
(CDN).
``
It is particularly useful in cases when few
data is sent to a large number of peers.
Benefits
``
In a similar way to which head up displays
are becoming commonplace in cars, we
may soon see VRD enter our daily life.
``
Wide deployment of web-based real-time
multimedia communication services, either
from person to person or within larger
groups.
Web-based peer-to-peer
``
Reduces the load on some central servers
in traffic intensive services, such as live
video streaming, while keeping a grip on
who accesses the service or content from
the Web.
Concept
Peer-to-peer (P2P) network technology
involves creating overlays on top of
established networks. Overlays follow
alternative metrics and addressing schemes to
adapt the search for shared resources among
the connected peers.
Popularized by file sharing for music
and video, it enables a wide range of
applications, including real-time multimedia
communication, as with Skype.
Latest versions of Adobe Flash, as well as
HTML5, are bringing direct connectivity
between peers in the form of a web
application, greatly easing the development
and deployment of P2P clients.
Trajectory
Few applications already take advantage of
the direct communication capabilities in the
browser as many web application developers
are not familiar with the concept of P2P
communications. However, the use of these
technologies is expected to grow significantly
in a near future.
Impact
``
Although the impact may not be dramatic
in general, changes could be very important
on some specific uses.
``
Communication and collaboration services
accessible via the Web will be impacted first.
``
Some impact is also expected on trafficintensive content distribution platforms.
Issues
``
As with many person-to-person
technologies, web peer-to-peer is facing
issues related to the variety of network
environments encountered. Most of these
issues are addressable using NAT/firewall
traversal technologies or by falling back on
a central server acting as a relay between
peers when direct connection is not
possible.
Applications
``
Web peer-to-peer can apply to most trafficintensive services, such as video distribution
and streaming or real-time communication.
129
Wireless power
Benefits
Concept
``
Lifestyle changing technology, not unlike
Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, if adapters and
chargers can be eliminated.
Wireless power aims at transferring electric

energy to devices without the use of electric
cords.
``
May apply to all the devices we use in our
daily life that need to be moved around,
from vacuum cleaners to mobile phones.
While most of the focus has been on creating

better batteries, some devices, such as electric
toothbrushes, smartphones and computer
mice, can already be powered wirelessly.
``
Getting rid of batteries would solve the
major environmental concern related to
their disposal.
RFID tags are usually powered by the readers

electromagnetic field.
``
Not having to factor in heavy or bulky
batteries would also impact industrial
design and portability of electric devices.
Trajectory
Induction is currently the most used method;
it is most effective over short ranges.
Far field power beaming, based on radio,
microwaves or laser, allows much longer
range, possibly over several kilometers.
130
Issues
``
Medical issues and the mistrust of the
public may strongly interfere with the
adoption of this technology.
``
Efficiency of the energy transfer is usually
significantly lower than with cords.
131
Acknowledgements
132
133
Acknowledgements
Ascent Look Out combines the knowledge and insight from subject matter experts across all corners of Atos -- our countries, services lines, market
groups, global functions and Scientific Community. This collaborative creation project is led by an International Editorial Board, who gratefully
acknowledge all contributors for their inspiration, experience and passion:
``
Albada Jelgersma, Paul
``
Alonso, Jesus
``
Alonso Fernandez, Almudena
``
Ariza Molina, Sandra
``
Astbury, Johnny
``
Badstbner, Olaf
``
Bajaj, Arvind
``
Barbezange, Jean-Claude
``
Barbier, Luc
``
Barr, Didier
``
Bate, Carl
``
Bele, Christophe
``
Benporath, Luca
``
Bierens, Raymond
``
Bodman, Graham
``
Bothof, Wilco
``
Boulo, Lionel
``
Bravo Gonzalez, Santiago
``
Breedijk, John
``
Bremer, Jasper
``
Brcker, Veit
``
Brun, Jerme
``
Brunet, Christophe
``
Brysbaert, Gregory
``
Buisson, Phil
``
Cabello Castillo, Ricardo
``
Calvo, Francisco
``
Carme, Julien
``
Carrillo, Jaime
``
Cauchie, Stphane
``
Charbonnier, Catherine
``
Chicheportiche, Michael
``
Chiheru, Kuldip
134
``
Claverie Belghit, Michle
``
Collette , Pierre
``
Collins, Thomas
``
Corral Hernandez, Miguel
``
Couchon, Benoit
``
Crawford, Laura
``
Criscione, Davide
``
Croisy, Pascal
``
dAnselme, Francois-Regis
``
Daubigny, Thomas
``
de Bruin, Hans
``
de Vos, Maarten
``
Delacourt, Francis
``
Delatte, Bertrand
``
Demattio De O Simoes, Fernando
``
Desi Damblemont, Vanessa
``
Desportes, Marc-Henri
``
Diebig, Johannes
``
Dijkstra, Erwin
``
Ding, Yipeng
``
Djian, Jean-Marc
``
Dom, Patrick
``
Elliot, Simon
``
Emsallem, Franck
``
Esteban Lauzan, Jose
``
Evans, Mark
``
Fabre, Bruno
``
Faivre, Denis
``
Fleming, Raoul
``
Fourny, Sylvain
``
Franco Copado, Ignacio
``
Fressancourt, Antoine
``
Fuchslocher, Markus
``
Gachard, Claire
``
Garcia Menor, Francisco
``
Garcin, Nathalie
``
Gervais, Laurent
``
Godderij, Jo
``
Ggele, Robert
``
Gonzalez Fernandez, Ana Isabel
``
Gruau, Anne Laurence
``
Guemes Seoane, Celestino
``
Guldemond, Ewoud
``
Gupta, Rajeev
``
Haguet, Jean
``
Hall, John
``
Hansmair, Uli
``
Henneberger, Matthias
``
Herault, Colombe
``
Hofmann, Peter
``
Hohner, Andre
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Hooghoudt, Kay
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Houni, Karim
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Hutchins, Giles
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Hyams, Will
``
James, Jean-Francois
``
Janeczko, Jordan
``
Jones, Louise
``
Jones, Mark
``
Juraske, Ingo
``
Kfer, Gerhard
``
Kaiser, Christian
``
Kalmijn, Peter
``
Kenny, Gavin
``
Kerganer, Rudolf
``
Khan, Cameron
``
Kleinhenz, Oliver
``
Koch-Hbel, Brbel
``
Krans, Jan
``
Kraus, Fernando
``
Kes, Bernhard
``
Kuipers, Tom
``
Lacassin, Veronique
``
Lacy, Tony
``
Le Corre, Yann Thomas
``
Legrand, Laurent
``
Lemaylleux, Annick
``
Lichtenberger, Stefan
``
Lijftogt, Bert-Jan
``
Linnenbank, Stephan
``
Longuet, Jean-Charles
``
Lopez Camacho, Francisco
``
Maglock, Alexander
``
Manders, Gijs
``
Mariette, Eric
``
Mariman, Bart
``
Marks, Frank
``
Marlard, Pierre
``
Massicard, Rgis
``
McArthur, Scott
``
Mediavilla Basabe, Fernando
``
Menant , Jean-Michel
``
Meyer, Marc
``
Mitic, Ljiljana
``
Morcuende Monforte, Miguel Angel
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Mller, Harald
``
Neuhuber, Roland
``
Neuteboom, Remco
``
Nimmons, Steve
``
Nogues, Stphanie
``
Norton, Russ
``
Nuez Pastor, Teresa
``
Oakham, Vicky
``
Oei, Albertine
``
Oosthoek, Peter Bas
``
Oppermann, Selma
``
Ort, Ralph
``
Pasic, Aljosa
``
Payan, Herv
``
Pelaez-Campomanes Jimenez, Luis
``
Pfeil, Martin
``
Pinheiro, Francisco
``
Pottecher, Diana
``
Price, Rob
``
Pruijssers, Peter
``
Ptak, Eric
``
Radzimski, Mateusz
``
Rammah, Essia
``
Reiners, Mylene
``
Rerat, Dominique
``
Rice, William
``
Ristol Jorba, Santi
``
Robet, Ccile
``
Rodriguez Lopez, Manuel
``
Rogue, Michael
``
Romainczyk, Oswald
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Ruiz Jimenez, Francisco Jose
``
Safont Guillen, Jordi
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Sanguino Gonzalez, Maria Angeles
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Saraber, Ron
``
Scharinger, Boris
``
Schwyrz, Gerhard
``
Sebastien, Michel
``
Seguineau, Dominique
``
Seneclauze, Grgoire
``
Shah, Chetan
``
Shano, Chris
``
Sinha, Rakesh
``
Smith, Mike
``
Spiegelhalder, Hans-Joachim
``
Standhartinger; Thomas
``
Stieber, Thilo
``
Stiegler, Nicolas
``
Stonelake, Colin
``
Taboada Corraliza, Juan Pablo
``
Tan, Chee
``
Tardieu, Hubert
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Te Lindert, Wildi
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Tejero Royes, Clara
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Tellert, Thomas
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Unrau, Robert
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Urbez Sanz, Patricia
``
Vaffier, Bruno
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van de Gronden, Johan
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van de Pol, Marcel
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van Delden, Leander
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van der Waaij, Michel
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van der Zee, Han
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van Gestel, Henk
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van Leuven, Frans van Leuven
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van Zijp, Gerard
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Vanhommerig, Jos
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Vlasblom, Willem
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Weissmann, Wolfgang
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Welsch, Johan
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Wergen, Reiner
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Wibbe, Martin
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Wijngaard, Peter
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Wilms, Philippe
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Wombacher, Christian
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Young, Mark
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Zimmermann, Stefan
135
A special thanks to the Ascent Look Out International Editorial

Board and its executive sponsors:
International Editorial Board
Chris Shano
Francisco Pinheiro
Luc Barbier
Editor-in-Chief
Atos Consulting
& Technology Services
The Netherlands
chris.shano@atos.net
Director Strategic Innovation

Global Innovation Business
Development & Strategy
Atos
francisco.pinheiro@atos.net
SVP Strategy & Industry Analyst

Relation
Global Innovation Business
Atos
luc.barbier@atos.net
Michle Claverie Belghit
Johannes Diebig
Denis Faivre
Director Global Communications

Atos
michele.claverie@atos.net
Global Head of Marketing

Atos
johannes.diebig@atos.net
Director of Innovation
Atos Worldline
denis.faivre@atos.net
Nathalie Garcin
Jordan Janeczko
Stphanie Nogus
Services Global Marketing

Atos
AtosConsulting & Technology
nathalie.garcin@atos.net
Strategist
Member of Atos Scientific
Community
Global Systems Integration
jordan.janeczko@atos.net
Innovation Manager
Atos
France
stephanie.nogues@atos.net
Teresa Nuez Pastor
Han van der Zee
Mark Young
Partner
Services
Spain
mteresa.nunez@atos.net
Partner
Services
The Netherlands
han.vanderzee@atos.net
Principal Consultant
Member of Atos Scientific
Community
Services
United Kingdom
mark.young@atos.net
Marc Meyer
Bruno Vaffier
Herv Payan
EVP Talents & Communication

Atos
marc.meyer@atos.net
SVP Global Innovation Business

Atos
bruno.vaffier@atos.net
EVP Sales & Marketing Support

Atos
herve.payan@atos.net
Executive Sponsors
136
p wering
pr gress
Business technologists
Working in accordance with principles

of accountability, trust, operational
competitiveness, service to clients,
innovation and social wellbeing to
achieve excellence.
137
About Atos
Atos is an international information
technology services company with annual
2011 pro forma revenues of EUR 8.5 billion
and 74,000 employees in 42 countries at the
end of December 2011. Serving a global client
base, it delivers hi-tech transactional services,
consulting and technology services, systems
integration and managed services. With its
deep technology expertise and industry
knowledge, it works with clients across the
following market sectors: Manufacturing,
Retail & Services; Public Sector, Healthcare &
Transport; Financial Services; Telecoms, Media
& Technology; Energy & Utilities.
Atos is focused on business technology that
powers progress and helps organizations
to create their firm of the future. It is the
Worldwide Information Technology Partner
for the Olympic Games and is quoted on the
Paris Eurolist Market. Atos operates under the
brands Atos, Atos Consulting and Technology
Services, Atos Worldline and Atos Worldgrid.
For more information about Ascent Look Out, please contact us:
Email: lookout@atos.net
www.lookout.atos.net
atos.net
Atos, the Atos logo, Atos Consulting, Atos Worldline, Atos Sphere, Atos Cloud and Atos Worldgrid are registered trademarks of Atos SA. January 2012
Atos, 2012. All rights reserved. The contents of Ascent Look Out is owned by Atos. You may not use or reproduce it in any type of media, unless you have been
granted prior written consent thereto by a competent person authorized to represent Atos for such purpose.

ATOS - Ascent Look Out - Telecom Media - Technology

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ATOS - Ascent Look Out - Telecom Media - Technology

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look out

At Atos we strive to create the

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

A new IT era is beginning: the era of business technology. It is

Ascent Look Out aims to raise awareness of the emerging trends,

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

View from the Atos

become part of this new driving force.

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

We are already seeing early adopters already

Why is Ascent Look Out

2011 saw Siemens IT Solutions and Services

Atos Innovation Workshops build on Ascent

Ascent began with a desire to give customers

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

See what other say about Ascent Look Out:

We launched our own Ascent

If innovation and sustainability are

There is quite a bit of material

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

The assumptions of the Social Organization

Some organizations have already expanded

A new way of working

A. Bradley and M. McDonald6 are proposing

Most of all, this is about helping organizations

Imagine: The Firm of the Future

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Zero email ambition

On February 7th 2011 Atos CEO and Chairman,

Inspired by stakeholder groups

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

The Firm of the Future engages

Organizational structures must adapt

Management in the new way of working

The most important outcomes for

and all this whilst still managing to reach

Management in the new way of working

Supporting people, organizations

Management in the new way of working

The Firm of the Future embraces two

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

The Firm of the Future equation

The strength of the smart organization is

The result: higher performance at lower cost,

New leaders for the new ways of work, Atos

Blueprint for management 2.0, Atos Origin

Bijl, D., Aan de slag met het nieuwewerken,

Innovation Conference, Atos Origin, February

The Social Organization: How to Use Social

Ducheneaut, N. and Watts, L. A., In search

Marcel Mauss The Gift, 1923

Norbert Alter Give and take the cooperation

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

Ascent Look Out Telecom, Media & Technology trends 2012+

2012+ SEP Innovation Radar:

Changing Family Unit