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vedeti : EARTH AND INTERPLANETARY CHANGES/SCHIMBARI PLANETARE
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Latest News Earth and Sun’s core reactions are triggered in the same time by the position in the galaxy((Mirahorian, March 05, 2005)
Future Maps of the World Prophecies, about possible Earth Changes
AMERICA DE NORD SI CENTRALA
Canada[Gordon-Michael Scallion] Hudson Bay and the Foxe Basin will expand to form a large inland sea. Parts of the Northwest Territory will be pushed in as much as two hundred miles. Areas in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and portions of Alberta will become the survival center of Canada during the early changes. Migrations will arrive from British Columbia and Alaska. United States Major global Earth changes will begin in the United States as the North American Plate buckles, creating the Isles of California — 150 islands in all. Eventually, through tectonic plate buckling and fractures followed by inundations, the West Coast will recede eastward to Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado. The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway will join and flow through the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico. Coastal areas from Maine to Florida will be inundated and pushed in for many miles. Mexico Coastal areas of Mexico will be inundated far inland. The California Baja will become a series of islands. Most of the Yucatan Peninsula will be lost to the sea. Volcanic and seismic activity will continue into the twenty-first century. Central America and the Caribbean Central America will be inundated and reduced to a series of islands. Elevations above 500 meters will be considered safe. A new waterway will form from the Bay of Honduras to Salinas, Ecuador. The Panama Canal will become impassable.
Europe will go through some of the quickest and most severe Earth changes. Much of Northern Europe will go beneath the sea as the tectonic plate upon which it rests collapses. Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark will be inundated, leaving hundreds of small islands. Most of the United Kingdom, from Scotland to the Channel, will go beneath the sea. A few small islands, about the size of what is now Shetland Island, will remain. London and Birmingham will be among the remaining islands. Ireland will go beneath the sea except for higher ground. Russia (the former Soviet Union) will be separated from Europe by a large new sea as the Caspian, Black, Kara, and Baltic Seas merge. The new sea, divided by the Ural Mountain range, will stretch all the way to the Jenisej River in Siberia. The region's climate will become more temperate, enabling Russia to supply much of Europe's food. The Black Sea will merge with the North Sea as well, leaving Bulgaria and Romania under water. The region from Poland to Turkey will see great turmoil. A great Holy War will be born in this region, ending with the purification of the land by fire and water. Portions of western Turkey will go under water, creating a new coastline from Istanbul to Cyprus. Much of central Europe will be inundated; most of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea will be lost. Many of the World War II battlegrounds will go beneath the sea, and small islands will be formed. Much of France will go under water, leaving an island in the Paris region. A new waterway will separate Switzerland from France, along a line from Geneva to Zurich. Italy will be divided by water. Venice, Naples, Rome and Genoa will be claimed by the sea, but the Vatican will be saved by moving to higher ground. Higher elevations will remain as islands. New land will rise from Sicily to Sardinia.
The Ring of Fire that passes through Asia is a highly seismic area, and as a result will experience the most active and severe Earth changes in this region. Land will be inundated from the Philippines to Japan, and north to the Bering Sea, including the Kuril and Sakhalin Islands. As the Pacific Plate shifts its position some nine degrees, the islands of Japan will sink, leaving a few small islands. Taiwan and most of Korea will be lost to the sea. With the shifting of the plate, the coastal region of China will be pushed inland hundreds of miles. Indonesia will break up, although some islands will remain and new land will rise. The Philippines will disappear beneath the sea. Asia will lose a significant amount of its land mass through these changes, yet new land will be born.
Australia will lose approximately twenty-five percent of its land mass due to inundation of coastal areas. The Adelaide area will become an inland sea all the way north to Lake Eyre. The Simpson and Gibson Deserts will become fertile land. Great communities based on spiritual principles will form between the Great Sandy and Simpson Deserts. Another settlement will arise in Queensland. New land will rise off the coast. New Zealand will grow in size, once again joining the land of old — Australia. The two lands will be joined by an isthmus, formed by rising land and volcanic activity. New Zealand will become the new frontier
America de Sud /South America
Central America and the Caribbean
Central America will be inundated and reduced to a series of islands. Elevations above 500 meters will be considered safe. A new waterway will form from the Bay of Honduras to Salinas, Ecuador. The Panama Canal will become impassable.
In South America great Earth changes will occur, including earthquake and volcanic activity. The land will be affected like a blanket shaken severely from one end to the other. Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil will be greatly inundated. The Amazon Basin area will become a great inland sea. Peru and Bolivia will be inundated.
Antarctica will be reborn, becoming fertile land again. The land once known as Lumania will be uncovered, and great cities and temple sites will be rediscovered. Land will rise from the Antarctic Peninsula to Tierra del Fuego, and eastward to South Georgia Island.
Perioade critice pentru cutremure declansate de maree magmatice in 2005-2009
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vedeti celelalte ferestre de risc seismic pe linurile de mai sus
2. Study Suggests Giant Space Clouds Iced Earth(March 04, 2005)
Eons ago, giant clouds in space may have led to global extinctions, according to two recent technical papers supported by NASA's Astrobiology Institute. One paper outlines a rare scenario in which Earth iced over during snowball glaciations, after the solar system passed through dense space clouds. In a more likely scenario, less dense giant molecular clouds may have enabled charged particles to enter Earth's atmosphere, leading to destruction of much of the planet's protective ozone layer. This resulted in global extinctions, according to the second paper. Both recently appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters. Computer models show dramatic climate change can be caused by interstellar dust accumulating in Earth's atmosphere during the solar system's immersion into a dense space cloud," said Alex Pavlov, principal author of the two papers. He is a scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder. The resulting dust layer hovering over the Earth would absorb and scatter solar radiation, yet allow heat to escape from the planet into space, causing runaway ice buildup and snowball glaciations. "There are indications from 600 to 800 million years ago; at least two of four glaciations were snowball glaciations. The big mystery revolves around how they are triggered," Pavlov said. He concluded the snowball glaciations covered the entire Earth. Pavlov said this hypothesis has to be tested by geologists. They would look at Earth's rocks to find layers that relate to the snowball glaciations to assess whether uranium 235 is present in higher amounts. It cannot be produced naturally on Earth or in the solar system, but it is constantly produced in space clouds by exploding stars called supernovae. Sudden, small changes in the uranium 235/238-ratio in rock layers would be proof interstellar material is present that originated from supernovae. Collisions of the solar system with dense space clouds are rare, but according to Pavlov’s research, more frequent solar system collisions, with moderately dense space clouds, can be devastating. He outlined a complex series of events that would result in loss of much of Earth's protective ozone layer, if the solar system collided with a moderately dense space cloud. The research outlined a scenario that begins as Earth passes through a moderately dense space cloud that cannot compress the outer edge of the sun's heliosphere into a region within the Earth's orbit. The heliosphere is the expanse that begins at the sun's surface and usually reaches far past the orbits of the planets. Because it remains beyond Earth's orbit, the heliosphere continues to deflect dust particles away from the planet. However, because of the large flow of hydrogen from space clouds into the sun's heliosphere, the sun greatly increases its production of electrically charged cosmic rays from the hydrogen particles. This also increases the flow of cosmic rays towards Earth. Normally, Earth's magnetic field and ozone layer protect life from cosmic rays and the sun's dangerous ultraviolet
radiation. Moderately dense space clouds are huge, and the solar system could take as long as 500,000 years to cross one of them. Once in such a cloud, the Earth would be expected to undergo at least one magnetic reversal. During a reversal, electrically charged cosmic rays can enter Earth's atmosphere instead of being deflected by the planet's magnetic field. Cosmic rays can fly into the atmosphere and break up nitrogen molecules to form nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxide catalysts would set off the destruction of as much as 40 percent of the protective ozone in the planet's upper atmosphere across the globe and destruction of about 80 percent of the ozone over the polar regions according to Pavlov.
3.MELTING ICE CAPS WILL TRIGGER BIG EARHQUAKES Topirea rapida a ghetarilor duce la formarea de cutremure(05.08.2004).
Un nou studiu al datelor obtinute de sateliti sugereaza ca topirea rapida a ghetarilor in Alaska poate determina literalmente inaltarea pamantului, generand astfel puternice cutremure. Multi duintre ghetarii din sudul Alaskai s-au micsorat sau chiar au disparut in decursul ultimului secol. Una dintre marile falii tectonice trece chiar prin zona de coasta a Alaskai, formand aici un lant muntos. Cum greutatea ghetii scade cu zi ce trece, pamantul se poate inalta mult mai usor, lucru ce duce la cutremure de mare magnitudine. Conform studiului, cutremurul de 7,2 grade din 1979 din sudul Alaskai ,a fost pornit de topirea ghetarilor. S-a ajuns la aceasta concluzie dupa ce s-a analizat cata gheata s-a topit de la ultimul mare cutremur din zona si instabilitatea pe care a provocat-o masa redusa a solului. "In viitor, in zone ca Alaska unde cutremurele sunt frecvente si ghetarii sufera modificari importante, relatia dintre acestea poate fi folosita pentru o mai buna intelegere a ambelor fenomene si un mai bun management in caz de dezastru. Datele furnizate de sateliti ne permit sa facem acest lucru prin monitorizarea schimbarilor formei si volumului ghetarilor, respectiv miscarilor scoartei terestre", mentioneaza cercetatori din cadrul NASA.
4.Strong Earth tides can trigger earthquakes, UCLA scientists report
October 22, 2004 Earthquakes can be triggered by the Earth's tides, UCLA scientists confirmed Oct. 21 in Science Express, the online journal of Science. Earth tides are produced by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun on the Earth, causing the ocean's waters to slosh, which in turn raise and lower stress on faults roughly twice a day. Scientists have wondered about the effects of Earth tides for more than 100 years. (The research will be published in the print version of Science in November.) "Large tides have a significant effect in triggering earthquakes," said Elizabeth Cochran, a UCLA graduate student in Earth and space sciences and lead author of the Science paper. "The earthquakes would have happened anyway, but they can be pushed sooner or later by the stress fluctuations of the tides." "Scientists have long suspected the tides played a role, but no one has been able to prove that for earthquakes worldwide until now," said John Vidale, UCLA professor of Earth and space sciences, interim director of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, and co-author of the paper. "Earthquakes have shown such clear correlations in only a few special settings, such as just below the sea-floor or near volcanoes." "There are many mysteries about how earthquakes occur, and this clears up one of them," Vidale said. "We find that it takes about the force arising from changing the sea level by a couple of meters of water to noticeably affect the rate of
earthquakes. This is a concrete step in understanding what it takes to set off an earthquake." Cochran, Vidale and co-author Sachiko Tanaka are the first researchers to factor in both the phase of the tides and the size of the tides, and are using calculations of the effects of the tides more accurate than were available just three years ago. Tanaka is a seismologist with Japan's National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention. Cochran and Vidale analyzed more than 2,000 earthquakes worldwide, magnitude 5.5 and higher, which struck from 1977 to 2000. They studied earthquakes in "subduction zones" where one tectonic plate dives under another, such as near the coasts of Alaska, Japan, New Zealand and western South America. "These earthquakes show a correlation with tides because along continent edges ocean tides are strong," Vidale said, "and the orientation of the fault plane is better known than for faults elsewhere." Cochran conducted a statistical analysis of the earthquakes and tidal stress data, using state-of-the-science tide calculations from Tanaka and the best global earthquake data, which came from Harvard seismologists. This research follows up on a 2002 study by Tanaka. The current research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the Laurence Livermore National Laboratory. Cochran and Vidale found a strong correlation between when earthquakes strike and when tidal stress on fault planes is high, and the likelihood of these results occurring by chance is less than one in 10,000, Cochran said. They found that strong tides impose enough stress on shallow faults to trigger earthquakes. If the tides are very large, more than two meters, three?quarters of the earthquakes occur when tidal stress acts to encourage triggering, she found. Fewer earthquakes are triggered when the tides are smaller. In California, and in fact in most places in the world, the correlation between earthquakes and tides is considerably smaller, Vidale said. In California, tides may vary the rate of earthquakes at most one or two percent; the overall effect of the tides is smaller, he said, because the faults studied are many miles inland from the coast and the tides are not particularly large University of California - Los Angeles
Printed from: http://www.brightsurf.com/news/oct_04/EDU_news_102204_c.php
Dec 23, 2004 A great earthquake occurred at 14:59:04 (UTC) on Thursday, December 23, 2004. The magnitude 8.1 event has been located North of MacQuarie Island. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)
Magnitude 8.1 Date-Time Thursday, December 23, 2004 at 14:59:04 (UTC) = Coordinated Universal Time Friday, December 24, 2004 at 1:59:04 AM = local time at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones Location 50.240°S, 160.133°E Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program Region NORTH OF MACQUARIE ISLAND Distances 420 km (260 miles) W of Auckland Island, New Zealand 495 km (305 miles) N of Macquarie Island, Australia 1515 km (940 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand 1890 km (1170 miles) SSE of CANBERRA, A.C.T., Australia Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.4 km (7.7 miles); depth fixed by location program Parameters Nst=125, Nph=125, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.33 sec, Gp= 25°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8 Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID ussjal Felt Reports Felt throughout Tasmania, Australia and felt in Southland, West Coast and other parts of the South Island, New Zealand. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/ussjal/
Perioade critice pentru cutremure declansate de maree magmatice in 2005-2012
Diagram of time intervals between consecutive New Moons (duration of the lunation) for 2004, January to 2025, September.
The mean value of 269 lunations is 29.5295 days. The mean value for a long time is 29.530589 days = 29 days 12 hours 44 minutes 03 seconds (synodic month). Extreme lunations: New Moon 1973, Dec 24, 15:08 UT to 1974, Jan 23, 11:04 UT 2035, Jun 06, 03:22 UT to 2035, Jul 05, 10:02 UT Duration of the lunation Moon, Earth
29 d 19 h 56 m = 29.8306 Moon apogee Dec 25, Jan d 28 = 29 d 12 h 44 m + 7 h 12 Earth perihelion Jan 04 m 29 d 06 h 40 m = 29.2778 Moon perigee Jun 06, Jul d 04 = 29 d 12 h 44 m - 6 h 04 Earth aphelion Jul 05 m
The variation is due to the excentricity of the Earth's orbit. The lunation will have its greatest possible duration when, at the instant of New Moon, the Moon is near its apogee and the Earth is near its perihelion. The shortest possible lunation will take place about six months earlier or later, when at New Moon the Moon is near perigee and the Earth near aphelion. There is a period 8.85 years. A detailed discussion: Jean Meeus: More mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willman-Bell, 2002, ISBN 0943396-74-3
Earth-Moon and Sun-Earth distances There is a periodicity of 19 years (Metonic Cycle): 19 tropical years = 19 * 365.24219 days = 6 939.602 days 235 lunations = 235 * 29.530589 days = 6 939.688 days with an error of 0.086 days (2 h 4 min). The 19-year cycle is also close (to somewhat more than half a day) to 255 draconic months, so it also is an eclipse cycle. Diagram of time intervals between consecutive Full Moons (duration of the lunation) for 2004, January to 2025, September (computed by Planet Applet)
Diagram of time intervals between consecutive ascending node passages (draconic month) for 2004, January to 2024, December (computed by Planet Applet)
The mean value of 284 ascending node passages is 27.2133 days. The Saros Cycle: Synodic Month (New Moon to New Moon) Draconic Month (node to node) 223 Synodic Months 242 Draconic Months 29.53059 days = 29d 12h 44m 27.21222 days = 27d 05h 06m 223 * 29.53059 d = 6585.32 d ‰ 18 years 10 or 11 d8h 242 * 27.21222 d = 6585.35 d ‰ 18 years 10 or 11 d8h
Any two eclipses separated by one Saros Cycle share very similar geometries. Diagram of time intervals between consecutive perigees (anomalistic month) for 2004, January to 2025, September (computed by Planet Applet)
The mean duration of 284 anomalistic months is 27.555 days. Perigee distances:
The mean perigee distance of 284 anomalistic months is 362562.4 km. A Blue Moon is the second full moon in a calendar month. Usually months have only one full moon, but occasionally a second one sneaks in. Full moons are separated by 29 days, while most months are 30 or 31 days long; so it is possible to fit two full moons in a single month. This happens every two and a half years, on average.
E-LETTER Earth Planets Space, 54, e9–e12, 2002
Small electric and magnetic signals observed before the arrival of seismic wave
Y. Honkura1, M. Matsushima1, N. Oshiman2, M. K. Tunc¸er3, S¸ . Baris¸3, A. Ito4, Y. Iio2, and A. M. Is¸ikara3
of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8551, Japan Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan 3Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bo˘gazic¸i University, Istanbul 81220, Turkey 4Faculty of Education, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya 321-8505, Japan (Received September 10, 2002; Revised November 14, 2002; Accepted December 6, 2002)
Electric and magnetic data were obtained above the focal area in association with the 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake. The acquired data are extremely important for studies of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes, which have attracted much attention even without clear physical understanding of their characteristics. We have already reported that large electric and magnetic variations observed during the earthquake were simply due to seismic waves through the mechanism of seismic dynamo effect, because they appeared neither before nor simultaneously with the origin time of the earthquake but a few seconds later, with the arrival of seismic wave. In this letter we show the result of our further analyses. Our detailed examination of the electric and magnetic data disclosed small signals appearing less than one second before the large signals associated with the seismic waves. It is not yet solved whether this observational fact is simply one aspect of the seismic dynamo effect or requires a new mechanism. Key words: Izmit earthquake, seismic dynamo effect, seismic wave, electric and magnetic changes
Observations of changes in the electromagnetic field before earthquake occurrences have been supposed as one of the possible methods in earthquake prediction (e.g. Honkura, 1981). However, no firm observational evidence with a clear physical mechanism has been obtained, although some likely mechanisms have been proposed to account for ambiguous observational results; the electrokinetic effect (Mizutani et al., 1976; Ishido and Mizutani, 1981; Gershenzon et al., 1993; Haartsen and Pride, 1997), the piezoelectric effect (Gershenzon et al., 1993), the piezomagnetic effect (Stacey and Johnston, 1972; Sasai, 1980), and the electromagnetic induction effect (Gershenzon et al., 1993; Iyemori et al., 1996; Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima et al., 2002). Recent examples of unambiguous electric field changes indicate that the arrival of electric signals is synchronized with the arrival of seismic waves (Yamada and Murakami, 1982; Mogi et al., 2000; Nagao et al., 2000), but the possibility was pointed out that the magnetic field started to change before seismic wave arrival in the case of the 1995 Kobe earthquake (Iyemori et al., 1996). In the meantime, we could obtain a set of electromagnetic data in the focal area of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima et al., 2002), which is extremely valuable for studies of electromagnetic field changes associated with earthquakes. Some overall characteristics of electric and magnetic field changes were already shown (Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima et al., 2002), and in this letter we focus our attention on the new finding.
Copy right c _ The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences (SGEPSS); The Seismological Society of Japan; The Volcanological Society of Japan; The Geodetic Society of Japan; The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences.
The data were obtained at four sites, denoted by 118, 120, 121 and 122 in Fig. 1, among many sites temporarily established for magnetotelluric (MT) observations across two fault zones; the northern one was in fact ruptured at the time of the Izmit earthquake. Also at the reference site, denoted by 001 in Fig. 1, MT signals were measured for remote reference processing of MT data. Hence the simultaneous electric (two components) and magnetic (three components) data at five sites are available.
3. On the Arrival Time of Electric and Magnetic Signals
We first try to identify the arrival time of electric and magnetic signals in the raw time series data at four sites located above the focal area. The electric and magnetic signals seem to have arrived about three seconds after the origin time of the Izmit earthquake as shown in Fig. 2, and no significant changes can be seen before and during a few seconds after the origin time. The arrival time of these electric and magnetic signals seems to correspond to the arrival time of seismic waves, but we cannot confirm this because no seismic
records are available at the MT sites. In this respect, we can use another set of electromagnetic and seismic velocity records simultaneously acquired at sites 121 and 122 during aftershock activity. In this case, however, the electromagnetic signals for small aftershocks are so small that they are obscured by naturally occurring MT variations, which obviously have nothing to do with earthquakes. Hence it is not straightforward to identify the arrival time of electromagnetic signals.
e9 e10 Y. HONKURA et al.: ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC SIGNALS BEFORE THE SEISMIC WAVE
4. Removal of Known MT Signals
Natural MT signals consist of external and internal origins, the latter resulting from electromagnetic induction in the conducting Earth. The scale length of MT signals of external origin is so long that they can be regarded as uniform over the region shown in Fig. 1. Also the electromagnetic induction is governed by a set of linear equations. Hence, each component of MT fields at sites 118, 120, 121 and 122 should be correlated with the horizontal magnetic field at the reference site 001; in fact, this is the basis for remote refer29° 30' 29° 30' 30° 00' 30° 00' 30° 30' 30° 30' 40° 30' 40° 30' 41° 00' 41° 00' Main shock UCG Marmara Iznik L. Sapanca L.
Iznik Golcuk Izmit Adapazari
001 118 120 121 122
Fig. 1. Locations of magnetotelluric (MT) observation sites along a north-south profile crossing the focal area of the 1999 Izmit earthquake (Honkura et al., 2000). At the sites denoted by 118, 120, 121 and 122, MT measurements were in operation during the Izmit earthquake in addition to the reference site denoted by 001 near the southern fault. A large star symbol shows the epicenter of the Izmit earthquake (Honkura et al., 2000). A small star symbol located near Izmit City indicates the epicenter of a small aftershock for which the electromagnetic and seismic records are shown in Fig. 3. UCG is the closest seismic station operated by T ¨ UBITAK ( ¨ Ozalaybey et al., 2002).
01:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43
2 0 2
(b) Site 120
01:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43
2 0 2
(a) Site 118
01:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43
1 0 1
(d) Site 122 Ex Ey Hx Hy Hz
01:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43
1 0 1
(c) Site 121 Main shock EM signal
Fig. 2. Electric and magnetic field variations at (a) site 118, (b) site 120, (c) site 121 and (d) site 122. Ex and Ey are the northward and the eastward electric fields, respectively. Hx, Hy and Hz are the northward, the eastward and the downward magnetic fields. The amplitudes are adjusted so that the noise level before the onset of changes indicated by a black arrow becomes nearly the same for all the components at each site. The origin of the abscissa corresponds to 00h01m38s (UTC), August 17, 1999. The origin time of the Izmit earthquake is 00h01m38.37s (Honkura et al., 2000) as indicated by another arrow. The arrival of electromagnetic field signals has been interpreted as corresponding to the first arrival of seismic wave, before which no changes exceeding the noise level can be seen in the figure.
ence processing in MT. We can therefore predict MT signals at sites 118, 120, 121 and 122 from the northward and the eastward magnetic field variations at the reference site 001, which are regarded as inputs to a kind of linear system. In the present case, we used the multi-channel Wiener filtering technique (Davis et al., 1981), and found that it is effective, particularly for the magnetic field, in removing the known,
predictable MT signals from the observed data at four sites.
5. Electric and Magnetic Signals Associated with an Aftershock
One example for an aftershock located beneath Izmit City (see Fig. 1) is shown in Fig. 3. At site 121, small yet clear signals can be distinguished from the background noise after the prediction operation. In this case, the onset of electric and magnetic field changes seems to be simultaneous with the P-wave arrival within the accuracy of 1/24 second (MT data sampling interval). At site 122, only magnetic signals can be identified within the time interval shown in the figure, and the onset in the northward (Hx) and eastward (Hy) components of the magnetic field is slightly later than the P-wave arrival. As for the mechanism of such electric and magnetic signals, we have proposed the generation of electric and magnetic fields by seismic waves (Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima et al., 2002). It is well known that motion of a conductor in the magnetic field gives rise to an electromotive force within the conductor. Seismic waves are obviously regarded as oscillations of the elastic and conducting Earth, and the Earth’s magnetic field of core origin prevails everywhere in the Earth. We have called this mechanism the ‘seismic dynamo effect’, referring to the core dynamo originating
Y. HONKURA et al.: ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC SIGNALS BEFORE THE SEISMIC WAVE e11
0 1 1
(b) Magnetic field at site 121
0 1 1
(a) Electric field at site 121
0 1 1
(d) Magnetic field at site 122 Hx Hy Hz UD NS EW
0 1 1
(c) Electric field at site 122 Ex Ey UD NS EW E P P P HH P
Fig. 3. Electric and magnetic field variations associated with the aftershock shown in Fig. 1. Ex and Ey are the northward and the eastward electric fields, respectively. UD, NS and EW are the vertical, the north-south and the east-west components of ground velocity. Hx, Hy and Hz are the northward, the eastward and the downward magnetic fields. The amplitude is normalized for each component with respect to its maximum range in a later main portion showing larger variations. As in Fig. 2, the noise level before the onset of changes associated with seismic waves is nearly the same for all the components at each site. The origin of the abscissa corresponds to 22h13m31.25s (UTC), September 18, 1999. The arrows with E and H indicate the estimated arrival time of electric and magnetic signals, respectively. The arrow with P denotes the arrival time of seismic P-wave as clearly identified by the vertical component. The sampling frequency is 24 Hz and hence the time resolution is 1/24 second as indicated by ticks on the abscissa. In this example, the arrival of electromagnetic fields can be regarded as simultaneous with the P-wave arrival.
00:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42
2 0 2
(b) Site 120
00:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42
2 0 2
(a) Site 118
00:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42
4 0 4
Adjusted amplitude (d) Site 122
Hx Hy Hz
00:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42
4 0 4
(c) Site 121
Fig. 4. Close-up view of Fig. 2; variations are made two orders of magnitude larger. The origin of the abscissa corresponds to 00h01m40s (UTC), August 17, 1999. The scale of this figure is nearly the same as that of Fig. 3, as understood by the noise levels before the signals appear. The arrival of electromagnetic signals corresponding to the first arrival of seismic wave is indicated by a vertical dotted line. We can recognize slow rises in some components before the dotted lines, but the arrival times, as indicated by arrows, of these slow signals are earlier only by a fraction of second at all the sites. Nonetheless, these signals exceed the noise levels and hence they are significant.
from the term v × B where v is the velocity of conducting fluid in the Earth’s core and B is the magnetic field. The only difference is that in the seismic dynamo effect v is the motion of elastic medium, instead of fluid motion. For quantitative analyses we must certainly take into account the effect of vibrations of the MT equipment.
e12 Y. HONKURA et al.: ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC SIGNALS BEFORE THE SEISMIC WAVE
6. Electric and Magnetic Signals Associated with the Main Shock
In the case of a small aftershock as shown in Fig. 3, the electromagnetic signals are slightly larger than the noise level, but the signals for the main shock shown in Fig. 2 are much larger and we can examine the signals in more detail. Here we focus our attention on the portions near the arrival of electromagnetic signals. Surprisingly, as shown in Fig. 4, gradual changes in some components (Ex, Hy, Hz at site 118; Hx, Hy, Hz at site 120; Hx, Hy at site 121; Hx, Hy at site 122) can be seen before the expected arrival of seismic waves. Duration of such changes is only a fraction of one second and their arrival is well after the origin time of the Izmit earthquake.
The reason why such earlier arrival of electromagnetic signals could not be detected in the case of the small aftershock shown in Fig. 3 is simply because the signals themselves are much smaller, as explained in more detail below. In Figs. 2 and 4, the ordinate scales are adjusted, respectively, so that the signals under consideration are well recognized. In fact, the scale of the ordinate of Fig. 4 is magnified by two orders of magnitude, compared with Fig. 2, and it is now comparable with that of Fig. 3, in which the amplitude of electric field variation is the order of 10-6-10-7 V/m. For the magnetic field, we must make corrections of the frequency-dependent sensor response to the output data and in the case of Fig. 3, the amplitude of magnetic field variation turned out to be of the order of 10-12 T. The signals for the main shock (Ms = 7.4) are at least two orders of magnitude larger than those for the aftershock (ML = 2.8). Theoretically, one may claim that electromagnetic signals should propagate in the Earth with the electromagnetic-wave speed and hence they should be observed much earlier than the arrival of seismic waves, nearly simultaneously with the origin time of the main shock. We have clearly shown that this is not the case, observationally. The pieces of evidence shown in this letter impose firm constraints on the mechanism of propagation of electromagnetic signals, including attenuation of the high-frequency signals in the conducting Earth (Honkura and Kuwata, 1993). In particular, this letter stimulates us to a challenging theoretical work on the seismic dynamo effect; electromagnetic induction in the conducting Earth by a traveling electromotive source due to seismic waves radiated from the earthquake source area. Alternatively, such an earlier signal may be related to a possible initial slow slip immediately before the main fault rupture (e.g. Iio, 1995). However, as pointed out by Johnston and Linde (2002), such a slow slip is at least three orders of magnitude smaller than the slip during the main shock. Our results show that the slow electromagnetic variations are only two orders of magnitude smaller than those during the
main shock and hence they are unlikely to be associated with a slow slip. The seismic record at UCG (see Fig. 1) also shows no event corresponding to the slow electromagnetic variations.
Acknowledgments. The precious set of data could be acquired during a difficult condition after the Izmit earthquake with the help of many colleagues at Bo˘gazic¸i University. We thank them for their great contribution to the hard work in the field. We also thank Serdar ¨ Ozalaybey for the seismic data at UCG and the referees for useful comments. This work was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports of Japan under grant-in-aid for scientific research Nos. 11694063 and 13373002, and also by the research fund of Bo˘gazic¸i University.
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