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variable.

Find the mean, variance, standard deviation, and expected value

for a discrete random variable.

Find the exact probability for X successes in n trials of a binomial

experiement.

Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the variable

of a binomial distribution.

Find the probabilities for outcomes of variables, using the

poisson, hypergeometric, and multinominal distributions .

Homework Problems:

5-1) pg 258: #1-5, #6, #8, #12-14, #19, #21, #27, #28

DUE___MONDAY, FEB 2____

5-2) pg 267: #1-3, #7-9, #11-12, #18-19.

DUE_____________________

5-3) pg 277: #2(a, c, e, g, i), #3(a, c, e,), #5-8, #12, #14 (a, c, e,

g), #16-18, #23-25, #28.

DUE_____________________

5-4) pg 290: #1(a, c, e), #3-5, #7(a, c, e), #9(b, c, d), #10, #14,

#17-20.

DUE_____________________

Distribution

each outcome of a statistical experiment with its probability of

occurrence.

A random variable is a variable whose

__________________________________.

the two dice.

Sample Space= {

,

,

, }

Whats P(X=3)=

P(X=7)=

P(X=12)=

___________________ can assume and the _______________

probabilities of the values.

Discrete probability distribution can be shown by using a

___________ or a ___________.

Number of heads X

Probability P(X)

Make a Graph:

The baseball World Series is played by the winner of the National

League and the American League. The first team to win four

games wins the World Series. The series will consist of four to

seven games, depending on the individual victories. The data

played in each series is represented by the variable X.

X

16

40

distribution, and draw a graph of the data.

Number of games X

Probability P(X)

Make a graph:

The sum of the probabilities of all events in the sample space must equal _____.

2. The probability of each even in the sample space must be between (or equal) to __________________. That is

distribution.

a) X

P(X)

b) X

P(X)

c) X

P(X)

d) X

P(X)

4

-0.6

8

2/3

1

1/4

1

0.3

6

0.2

9

1/6

2

1/4

3

0.1

8

10

0.7 1.5

12

1/2

3

4

1/4 1/4

5

7

9

0.2 0.4 -0.7

Deviation, and Expectation.

MEAN

Sample Mean

Population Mean

Probability Distribution

Mean

(Expected Value)

Expected Value:

In a family with two children, find the mean of the number of children who

will be girls.

Number of girls X

Probability P(X)

1/4

= X

1/2

1/4

P(X) =

The probability distribution shown represents the number of trips of

five nights or more that American adults take per year. Find the mean.

Number of trips X

Probability P(X)

= X

P(X) =

VARIANCE

Sample Variance

Population Variance

0.06

0.70

0.20

0.03

0.04

Probability Distribution

Variance

Find the Variance for the probability distribution. The mean ( ) is 3.5.

Outcome X

Probability

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

2 = Var(X) = [ X 2

P(X)] -

In a recent little league softball game, each player went to bat 4 times. The

number of hits made by each player is described by the following probability

distribution.

Number of hits X

Probability P(X)

0.25 0.15

= X

P(X) =

2 = Var(X) = [ X 2

P(X)] -

=

Var ( X )

Bi mean ________

Therefore, a binomial distribution has _____ outcomes.

following 4 requirements:

1. There must be

2. Each trial can have only

3. The outcomes of reach trial

4. The probability of a success

Now before we go over the equation, lets define some more abbreviations:

HINT: The letter p comes before q in the alphabet race so p is the winner (success) and q is the loser (failure).

P(S)

P(F)

P(S) = ____

A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.

OLD WAY:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Each trial only has TWO outcomes?

Outcomes of the trials are independent?

Probability of SUCCESS remains the same for each trial?

P(X) =

n!

( nX ) ! X !

P(2 heads) =

pX

q nX

n=

)(

X=

p=

q=

iss Edwards,

do we really

need to use

this equatio

n for all the

problems? I

understand

how to use

it, but its su

ch a long eq

uation to wri

te out.

)(

A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited a

doctor in any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the

probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

1.

2.

3.

4.

Each trial only has TWO outcomes?

Outcomes of the trials are independent?

Probability of SUCCESS remains the same for each trial?

P(X) =

P( )=

n!

( nX ) ! X !

nX

n=

X=

p=

q=

Bu

Look back at the COIN TOSS example. Lets solve the problem by using Table

B.

Example: Survey on

Fear of Being Home

Alone at Night.

Public Opinion reported that 5% of Americans are afraid of being home alone

at night. If a random sample of 20 Americans is selected, find each

probability.

a) There are exactly 5 people in the sample who are afraid of being

alone

b) There are at most 3 people in the sample who are afraid of being

alone:

c) There are at least 3 people in the sample who are afraid of being

alone:

Binomial Distribution

Mean

=n

=n

Variance

Standard

Deviation

n p q

A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of

the number of heads that will be obtained.

n=

p=

q=

Mean:

Variance:

Standard Deviation:

The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported

that 2% of all American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000

births is taken, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the

number of births that would result in twins.

n=

p=

q=

Mean:

Variance:

Standard Deviation:

QUICK

REVIEW

Binomial Distribution

1.

2.

3.

4.

Probability

n!

( nX ) ! X !

P(X) =

q nX

Mean

=n

Variance

Standard

Deviation

=n

n p q

1.

2.

3.

4.

Each trial _______________ than _____ outcomes.

Trials are independent of each other.

Probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.

P(X) =

n!

X1! X2 ! X3! Xk !

px1 p2x p xk

k

X1 ,

p1 ,

X2 ,

p2 ,

X3

p3

In a large city, 50% of the people choose a movie, 30% choose

dinner and a play, and 20% choose shopping as a leisure activity.

If a sample of 5 people is randomly selected, find the probability

that 3 are planning to go to a movie, 1 to a play, and 1 to go

shopping.

1.

2.

3.

4.

More than 2 outcomes?

Trials are independent?

Probability of a success must remain the same?

n=

X1 =

X2 =

X3 =

p1 =

p2 =

p3 =

P(X)=

)(

)(

) =

A small coffee shop manager found that the probabilities a

customer buys 0, 1, 2, or 3 cups of coffee are 0.3, 0.5, 0.15, and

0.05. If 8 costumers enter the shop, find the probability that 2

costumers will purchase something other than coffee, 4 will

purchase 1 cup of coffee, 1 will purchase 2 cups of coffee, and 1

will purchase 2 cups.

n=

p2 =

X1 =

X2 =

p3 =

X3 =

X4 =

p1 =

p4 =

P(X)=

)(

)(

)(

)=

Suppose we have a bowl with 10 marbles - 2 red marbles, 3 green marbles,

and 5 blue marbles. We randomly select 4 marbles from the bowl, with

replacement. What is the probability of selecting 2 green marbles and 2 blue

marbles?

1. Useful when ____ is large and ____ is small.

2. _________________ variables occur over a ______________ of time.

3. Used when a __________ of items is distributed over a given

_______ or _______________.

4. On average

5.

P(X; ) =

X

(Greek

letter

e X

X!

where X= 0, 1, 2.

lambda)

e

Example: Typographical Errors

If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a

500-page manuscript, find the probability that a given page

contains exactly 3 error.

1. n is large and p is small?

2. Independent variables occur over a period of time?

Step 1) Define all variables:

e =

X=

Step 2) Find :

(average) =

Can w

e

h

a

v

e a tab

le for

t

h

is

d

istribu

tion?

P(X; ) =

e

X!

A sales firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free

number. For any given hour, find the probability that it will receive

the following.

a) At most 3 calls.

b) At least 3 calls.

c) 5 or more calls.

The Poisson distribution can also be used to approximate the

_______________ __________________ when the expected value = n

p

If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are

left-handed, find the probability that exactly 5 people there are

left-handed.

1. n is large and p is small?

2. Independent variables occur over a period of time?

e =

P(X; ) =

n=

e X

X!

p=

X=

_____________ ________________ cannot be used because the

trials are not ________________.

Only _____ number of outcomes.

a

b

a+b

n

X

Ten people apply for job as assistant manager of a restaurant.

Five have completed college and five have not. If the manager

selects 3 applicants at random, find the probability that all 3 are

college graduates.

1. Only two outcomes?

2. Without replacement?

3. Dependent variables?

a=

x=

b=

n=

n-x=

A lot of 12 compressor tanks is checked to see whether there are

any defective tanks. Three thanks are checked for leaks. If 1 or

more of the 3 is defective, the lot is rejected. Find the probability

that the lot will be rejected if there are actually 3 defected tanks

in the lot.

a=

b=

n=

X=

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