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Chapter 5 Learning Targets

Construct a probability distribution for a random


variable.
Find the mean, variance, standard deviation, and expected value
for a discrete random variable.
Find the exact probability for X successes in n trials of a binomial
experiement.
Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the variable
of a binomial distribution.
Find the probabilities for outcomes of variables, using the
poisson, hypergeometric, and multinominal distributions .

Homework Problems:
5-1) pg 258: #1-5, #6, #8, #12-14, #19, #21, #27, #28
DUE___MONDAY, FEB 2____
5-2) pg 267: #1-3, #7-9, #11-12, #18-19.
DUE_____________________
5-3) pg 277: #2(a, c, e, g, i), #3(a, c, e,), #5-8, #12, #14 (a, c, e,
g), #16-18, #23-25, #28.
DUE_____________________
5-4) pg 290: #1(a, c, e), #3-5, #7(a, c, e), #9(b, c, d), #10, #14,
#17-20.
DUE_____________________

Chapter 5, Section 1: Probability


Distribution

A probability distribution is a table or an equation that links


each outcome of a statistical experiment with its probability of
occurrence.
A random variable is a variable whose
__________________________________.

Example: The random variable is X= The sum of the scores on


the two dice.
Sample Space= {
,
,
, }

2 occurs just once, so P(X=2) = 1/36


Whats P(X=3)=
P(X=7)=
P(X=12)=

A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a


___________________ can assume and the _______________
probabilities of the values.
Discrete probability distribution can be shown by using a
___________ or a ___________.

Example: Tossing a coin


Number of heads X

Probability P(X)

Make a Graph:

Example: Baseball World Series


The baseball World Series is played by the winner of the National
League and the American League. The first team to win four
games wins the World Series. The series will consist of four to
seven games, depending on the individual victories. The data

below consists of 40 World Series events. The number of games


played in each series is represented by the variable X.
X

Number of Games Played

16
40

Find the probability P(X) for each X, construct a probability


distribution, and draw a graph of the data.
Number of games X

Probability P(X)
Make a graph:

Two Requirements for a Probability Distribution


The sum of the probabilities of all events in the sample space must equal _____.

2. The probability of each even in the sample space must be between (or equal) to __________________. That is

Example: Determine whether each distribution is a probability


distribution.

a) X
P(X)
b) X
P(X)
c) X
P(X)
d) X
P(X)

4
-0.6
8
2/3
1
1/4
1
0.3

6
0.2
9
1/6
2
1/4
3
0.1

8
10
0.7 1.5
12
1/2
3
4
1/4 1/4
5
7
9
0.2 0.4 -0.7

Chapter 5.2: Mean, Variance, Standard


Deviation, and Expectation.
MEAN
Sample Mean
Population Mean
Probability Distribution
Mean
(Expected Value)

Expected Value:

Example: Children in a Family


In a family with two children, find the mean of the number of children who
will be girls.
Number of girls X

Probability P(X)

1/4

= X

1/2

1/4

P(X) =

Example: Number of Trips of Five Nights or More


The probability distribution shown represents the number of trips of
five nights or more that American adults take per year. Find the mean.
Number of trips X
Probability P(X)
= X

P(X) =

VARIANCE
Sample Variance
Population Variance

0.06

0.70

0.20

0.03

0.04

Probability Distribution
Variance

Example: Rolling a Die


Find the Variance for the probability distribution. The mean ( ) is 3.5.
Outcome X

Probability

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

2 = Var(X) = [ X 2

P(X)] -

Example: Softball Game


In a recent little league softball game, each player went to bat 4 times. The
number of hits made by each player is described by the following probability
distribution.
Number of hits X
Probability P(X)

0.10 0.20 0.30

0.25 0.15

STEP 1: Find the Mean/ Expected number of hits


= X

P(X) =

STEP 2: Find the Variance


2 = Var(X) = [ X 2

P(X)] -

STEP 3: Find the Standard Deviation


=

Var ( X )

Chapter 5.3: The Binomial Distribution


Bi mean ________
Therefore, a binomial distribution has _____ outcomes.

A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the


following 4 requirements:
1. There must be
2. Each trial can have only
3. The outcomes of reach trial
4. The probability of a success

Now before we go over the equation, lets define some more abbreviations:
HINT: The letter p comes before q in the alphabet race so p is the winner (success) and q is the loser (failure).

The numerical probability of a success

The numerical probability of a failure

The number of trial

The number of successes in n trials

P(S)

The symbol for the probability of success

P(F)

The symbol for the probability of failure


P(S) = ____

and P(F) = ________________

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in n trials is

Example: Tossing a Coin


A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
OLD WAY:

NEW WAY: Must check to see if it fits our 4 requirements


1.
2.
3.
4.

Fixed number of trials?


Each trial only has TWO outcomes?
Outcomes of the trials are independent?
Probability of SUCCESS remains the same for each trial?

P(X) =

n!
( nX ) ! X !

P(2 heads) =

pX

q nX

n=

)(

X=

p=

q=

iss Edwards,
do we really
need to use
this equatio
n for all the
problems? I
understand
how to use
it, but its su
ch a long eq
uation to wri
te out.

)(

Example: Survey on Doctor Visits


A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited a
doctor in any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the
probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.
1.
2.
3.
4.

Fixed number of trials?


Each trial only has TWO outcomes?
Outcomes of the trials are independent?
Probability of SUCCESS remains the same for each trial?

P(X) =

P( )=

n!
( nX ) ! X !

nX

n=

X=

p=

q=

Bu

Im here with the solution!!


Look back at the COIN TOSS example. Lets solve the problem by using Table
B.

Example: Survey on
Fear of Being Home
Alone at Night.
Public Opinion reported that 5% of Americans are afraid of being home alone
at night. If a random sample of 20 Americans is selected, find each
probability.

a) There are exactly 5 people in the sample who are afraid of being
alone
b) There are at most 3 people in the sample who are afraid of being
alone:
c) There are at least 3 people in the sample who are afraid of being
alone:

Dont Forget About Us Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for


Binomial Distribution
Mean

=n

=n

Variance

Standard
Deviation

n p q

Example: Tossing a Coin


A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of
the number of heads that will be obtained.
n=

p=

q=

Mean:
Variance:
Standard Deviation:

Example: Likelihood of Twins


The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported
that 2% of all American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000
births is taken, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
number of births that would result in twins.
n=

p=

q=

Mean:
Variance:
Standard Deviation:

Chapter 5.4: Other Types of Distributions


QUICK
REVIEW

Binomial Distribution
1.
2.
3.
4.
Probability

n!
( nX ) ! X !

P(X) =

q nX

Mean

=n

Variance

Standard
Deviation

=n

n p q

The Multinomial Distribution


1.
2.
3.
4.

There must be a fixed number of trials.


Each trial _______________ than _____ outcomes.
Trials are independent of each other.
Probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.

Formula for the multinomial distribution:

P(X) =

n!
X1! X2 ! X3! Xk !

px1 p2x p xk

k
X1 ,

p1 ,

X2 ,

p2 ,

X3

p3

Example: Leisure Activities


In a large city, 50% of the people choose a movie, 30% choose
dinner and a play, and 20% choose shopping as a leisure activity.
If a sample of 5 people is randomly selected, find the probability
that 3 are planning to go to a movie, 1 to a play, and 1 to go
shopping.
1.
2.
3.
4.

Fixed number of trials?


More than 2 outcomes?
Trials are independent?
Probability of a success must remain the same?

n=

X1 =

X2 =

X3 =

p1 =

p2 =

p3 =

P(X)=

)(

)(

) =

Example: Coffee Shop Customers


A small coffee shop manager found that the probabilities a
customer buys 0, 1, 2, or 3 cups of coffee are 0.3, 0.5, 0.15, and
0.05. If 8 costumers enter the shop, find the probability that 2
costumers will purchase something other than coffee, 4 will
purchase 1 cup of coffee, 1 will purchase 2 cups of coffee, and 1
will purchase 2 cups.

n=
p2 =

X1 =

X2 =

p3 =

X3 =

X4 =

p1 =

p4 =

P(X)=

)(

)(

)(

)=

Examples: Picking a marble


Suppose we have a bowl with 10 marbles - 2 red marbles, 3 green marbles,
and 5 blue marbles. We randomly select 4 marbles from the bowl, with
replacement. What is the probability of selecting 2 green marbles and 2 blue
marbles?

The Poisson Distribution


1. Useful when ____ is large and ____ is small.
2. _________________ variables occur over a ______________ of time.
3. Used when a __________ of items is distributed over a given
_______ or _______________.
4. On average
5.

Formula for Poisson distribution:


P(X; ) =
X
(Greek
letter

e X
X!

where X= 0, 1, 2.

lambda)
e

ROUND THE ANSWER TO FOUR DECIMAL PLACES!!


Example: Typographical Errors
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a
500-page manuscript, find the probability that a given page
contains exactly 3 error.
1. n is large and p is small?
2. Independent variables occur over a period of time?
Step 1) Define all variables:
e =

X=

Step 2) Find :
(average) =

Can w
e
h
a
v
e a tab
le for
t
h
is
d
istribu
tion?

Step 3) Plug it in!

P(X; ) =

e
X!

Example: Toll-Free Telephone Calls


A sales firm receives, on average, 3 calls per hour on its toll-free
number. For any given hour, find the probability that it will receive
the following.
a) At most 3 calls.
b) At least 3 calls.

c) 5 or more calls.
The Poisson distribution can also be used to approximate the
_______________ __________________ when the expected value = n
p

Example: Left-Handed People


If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people are
left-handed, find the probability that exactly 5 people there are
left-handed.
1. n is large and p is small?
2. Independent variables occur over a period of time?
e =

P(X; ) =

n=
e X
X!

p=

X=

The Hypergeometric Distribution

When sampling is done _____________ replacement, the


_____________ ________________ cannot be used because the
trials are not ________________.
Only _____ number of outcomes.

Formula for the hypergeometric distribution

a
b
a+b
n
X

Example: Assistant Manager Applicants


Ten people apply for job as assistant manager of a restaurant.
Five have completed college and five have not. If the manager
selects 3 applicants at random, find the probability that all 3 are
college graduates.
1. Only two outcomes?

2. Without replacement?
3. Dependent variables?
a=
x=

b=

n=

n-x=

Example: Defective Compressor Tanks


A lot of 12 compressor tanks is checked to see whether there are
any defective tanks. Three thanks are checked for leaks. If 1 or
more of the 3 is defective, the lot is rejected. Find the probability
that the lot will be rejected if there are actually 3 defected tanks
in the lot.
a=

b=

n=

X=