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DCF for Dabur (Scott Model)

Scenario 1
Income Statement (Rs. Cr)
Sales
Expenses
D&A
PBT
PAT
Balance Sheet (Rs. Cr)
Cash
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Net Fixed Assets
Accumulated Dep
Fixed assets
NWC*
Change in NWC*
Capital Expenditures
Excess cash
FCF
PV
Total PV
Value of equity
Value per share
Forecast assumptions
Sales growth
Expenses (% of sales)
Accumulated dep (% beg net PPE)
Taxes
NWC required (% of sales)
Net Fixed Assets
No. of outstanding shares (Cr.)
Share price (13 Oct 2014)
Long term growth rate
r

2014(a)
4,979.65
4,117.60
53.89
861.33
672.10

2015
5,477.62
3,450.90
57.02
1,969.69
1,536.36

2014(a)
297.47
323.12
558.20
670.38
388.54
1,058.92
833.17

2015

821.64
445.56
1,267.21
931.19
98.02
208.29

143.36
143.36
99,927.67
63,129.27
361.98

10%
63%
8.51%
22%
17%
15%
174.4
211
7%
9%

1,287.07
1,180.80

2016
6,025.38
3,795.99
69.89
2,159.50
2,159.50

2017
6,627.91
4,175.59
76.88
2,375.45
2,375.45

2018
7,290.71
4,593.14
84.57
2,612.99
2,612.99

2019
8,019.78
5,052.46
93.03
2,874.29
2,874.29

2016

2017

2018

2019

903.81
515.46
1,419.26
1,024.31
93.12
152.06

994.19
592.34
1,586.52
1,126.75
102.43
167.26

1,093.61
676.90
1,770.51
1,239.42
112.67
183.99

1,202.97
769.93
1,972.90
1,363.36
123.94
202.39

1,984.21
1,670.07

2,182.64
1,685.40

2,400.90
1,700.86

2,640.99
1,716.46

Terminal Value

141,292.94
91,830.71