You are on page 1of 216

. HUG.

100-461 PT. 2

GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HEARING

BEFORE THE

COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES UNITED STATES SENATE

ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS

FIRST SESSION

ON THE

GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

JUNE 23, 1988

PART 2

Printed for the use of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources

89-339

U.S.

GOVERNMENT

PRINTING

WASHINGTON

: 1988

OFFICE

For sale by Qie Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office

U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402

.5 61 7-

COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES

J. BENNETT JOHNSTON, Louisiana, Chairman

DALE BUMPERS, Arkansas

WENDELL H. FORD, Kentucky HOWARD M. METZENBAUM, Ohio JOHN MELCHER, Montana BILL BRADLEY, New Jersey JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, Colorado WYCHE FOWLER, JR., Georgia KENT CONRAD, North Dakota

DARYL H. OWEN,

JAMES A. McCLURE, Idaho MARK 0. HATFIELD, Oregon LOWELL P. WEICKER, JR., Connecticut PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico MALCOLM WALLOP, Wyoming FRANK H. MURKOWSKI, Alaska - DON NICKLES, Oklahoma CHIC HECHT, Nevada DANIEL J. EVANS, Washington

Staff Director

D. MICHAEL HARVEY, Chief Counsel

FRANK M. CUSHING, GARY G. ELLSWORTH,

Staff,Director for the Minority Chief Counsel for the Minority

(II)

CONTENTS

STATEMENTS

Baucus, Hon. Max, U.S. Senator from Montana Bumpers, Hon. Dale, U.S. Senator from Arkansas Chafee, Hon. John H., U.S. Senator from Rhode Island Conrad, Hon. Kent, U.S. Senator from North Dakota Dudek, Dr. Daniel J., senior economist, Environmental Defense Fund

Hansen, Dr. James, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Johnston, Hon. J. Bennett, U.S. Senator from Louisiana

Manabe, Dr. Syukuro, Geophysical Fluid

Dynamics Laboratory, National

Moomaw, Dr. William R., director, Climate, Energy and Pollution Program, World Resources Institute

Murkowski, Hon. Frank H., U.S. Senator from Alaska

Oceanic and Atmospheric

Adm inistration

Oppenheimer, Dr. Michael, senior scientist, Environmental Defense Fund

Wirth, Hon. Timothy E., U.S. Senator from Colorado Woodwell, Dr. George M., director, Woods Hole Research Center

APPENDIXES

APPENDIX I

Responses to additional questions

APPENDIX

II

Additional material submitted for the record

(III)

Page

31

38

99

31

117

39

1

105

142

104

80

5

91

161

188

GREENHOUSE

EFFECT AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

THURSDAY, JUNE 23, 1988

U.S. SENATE,

COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES,

Washington, DC.

The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:10 p.m., in room SD-

366, Dirksen

chairman, presiding.

Senate

Office Building,

Hon.

J.

Bennett Johnston,

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. J. BENNETT JOHNSTON, U.S. SENATOR FROM LOUISIANA The CHAIRMAN. The hearing will come to order.

hearings on the question of

with mix-

tures of disbelief and concern as Dr. Manabe told us that the ex- pected result of the greenhouse effect was going to be a drying of the southeast and midwest. Today as we experience 1010 tempera- tures in Washington, _DCand the soil moisture across the midwest is ruining the soybean crops, the corn crops, -thecotfion -crops,-whep

we're having emergency

in order to figure out how to

words of Dr. Manabe and other witnesses who told us about the

greenhouse effect are becoming not just concern, but alarm.

Last November, we had introductory global warming and the greenhouse

effect. We listened

meetings of the Members of the Congres

deal with this emergency, then the

else

to go. The possibility,

and putting too much CO 2 in the

atmosphere and thereby causing this greenhouse effect is now a major concern of Members of the Congress and of people every-

where in this country.

by burning too much fossil fuels

We have only one planet. If we screw

it up, we have no place

indeed, the fact of our mistreating this planet

The question is

what do you do about it. Well, the first thing you

do about it is learn about it, what is happening, why is

it happen-

address

this very serious problem. The leader in this problem on this com-

mittee has been Senator Tim Wirth

ing, how serious is the problem. Then we must begin to

from Colorado. Working

with

him, we have included some $3 million in the energy and water ap- propriation bill to begin our studies, and it is in this committee

where the lead investigations and hearings will be held. It is safe to say that this problem is not going to go away. It is not like a stock market crash which corrects itself in a matter of

weeks

to find the solu-

tions, we know

going to be easily correctable,

or months. The problem is going to only get worse. It is not

and once we begin

those solutions are going to be both expensive as we

(1)

2

find alternate fuels and are going to involve massive international efforts.

we begin today, we are doing so with a consciousness that

study of little interest to the ordinary citi-

on some-

body's theory. The

now. We know it is fact. What we don't know is how quickly it will

come upon us as an emergency fact, how quickly it will ripen from

concern to a matter of severe emer-

gency. And what we don't know about it is how we're going to deal

with it and how we're going to get the American people to under-

stand that perhaps this drought which we have today is not just an accidental drought, not just the kind of periodic drought which we

the result of what man is

greenhouse effect has ripened beyond theory

So, as

this is not some esoteric

zen of the United States. This is not some economic study

just simply a matter of deep

have from time to time but is, in fact, doing to this planet.

So, with that, I would like to turn the Chair over to Senator

our commit-

tee on the subject of global warming. And I turn the Chair over to

him with our thanks for his leadership

Wirth who will be chairing these hearings and leading

in this area.

[The prepared statement of Senator Johnston follows:]

STATEMENT

OF

THE

HONORABLE

J.

JUNE

23,

1988

BENNETT

JOHNSTON

I am pleased to welcome you to this afternoon's hearing on the

Greenhouse Effect and policies for controlling global climate change.

Testimony presented last November, in hearings befor tHi6 Committee, contained sobering predictions regarding the degree and pace of global warming. Today's Greenhouse hearings will elaborate on two particularly striking facts; the first is the rapidity with which the problem of global climate chazqe is entering the public and politic" consciousness; and the second is the dramatic decrease in projected time before the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and habitat degradation begin to be felt.

,_,,.

The current drought situation teaches us how important climate is to the nation's social, economic, and physical well being. The United States is currently mobilizing its political and financial resources to grapple with the enormous agricultural devastation of the present dry spell over the midwest and southeast portions of the United States. The present drought graphically illustrates only a small portion of the scenario which could transpire if global warming and climate change predictions are accurate.

Taking the proper steps to control the degree and pace of global

warming will not be easy. The policy choices that

involve critical political and economic decisions. These hearings

will need to be made

4

should spur us to once again examine the strong links between energy policy and the greenhouse effect. The burning of fossil fuels is a major contributor to the greenhouse effect. However, no one believes that we can end our dependence on these fuels overnight.

Nevertheless, the United States must make a concerted effort to increase its use of energy sources that emit relatively less qarbon dioxide and other trace gases. We must revive our nuclear industry by developing a new generation of passively safe, economical nuclear reactors. We must push even harder to adopt commercially available energy efficiency measures and we must generously'-fund more research and development efforts in this area. We must also proceed with research that can lead to cost breakthroughs in fusion, solar, and other renewable energy sources.

We must remember also, that the greenhouse effect is implicitly linked to resource and environmental policy. The Montreal Protocol 0 CFC emissions is an encouraging sign that we are working in the right direction -- we must take all possible measures to ensure that this unprecedented agreement is a success. Steps are already underway in :the Senate to encourage the United State to work toward strengthening the Protocol's phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons. Some have called for a similar Protocol to address the potentially more serious issue of global climate change and warming. However, it is clear that an internatio I agreement to rontrol C02 and trace gas emissions will be even more problematic.

I

am

looking

forward to today's hearings to provide some insight

into

face.

a

options.

the formidable

I

hope

to

use

agenda

task

the Committee

testimony

today's

that

Congressional

addresses

and,

as

in

focus

fact,

the nation,

must

a

for the discussion

change policy

near-term

global

of

5

STATEMENT OF HON. TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, U.S. SENATOR FROM COLORADO

Senator WIRTH [presiding].

Thank you very

much. We greatly

ap-

preciate your farsighted direction of the committee dating back a

long way when we first began to think about this, the hearings

that were held, and also

funding in this current appropriations cycle that I think will do a

lot to not only

your great help in assisting in getting

help the research

that is going

on, the collection of

of communities

the data that has to be done, the standardization of that data, and

beginning to get

in the country.

tunity.

We thank you very much for giving me this oppor-

seeing firsthand the ef-

that information out to a variety

of us have been

In the last week many

heart of The coun-

this as the worst drought

we have experienced since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930's. The

rivers on earth are

up. Let me cite just a few examples. Already more

than 50 percent of the northern plains' wheat,

have been destroyed, and the situation could get

Tuesday, the Mississippi River sank to its lowest point since at

measurements. And in

my home State of Colorado, peak flows are

record, and reservoir levels are also

among the lowest on

fects of the drought that is occurring across the

try. Meteorologists

are already recording

most productive

literally drying

soils and some of the mightiest

barley

much

and oats

worse. On

least 1872 when the U.S. Navy first began

We must begin to

alarmingly low.

ask is this a harbinger

of things to come. Is

on our frag- will provide

this the

ile global environment?

first greenhouse

stamp to leave its impression I understand that Dr. Hansen

the scientific evidence

testimony this afternoon

has done an outstanding job of compil-

ing and

is compelling. The

global climate is changing as the earth's atmosphere gets warmer.

Now the Congress

or halt that warming

changes

the

ence to

to consider how we are going to slow

trend, and how we're going to cope with the

global climate

that points clearly in that direction.

of evidence

about

The scientific community

analyzing

As

I read

mountains

it,

change.

must begin

that may already be inevitable.

In essence,

this is an issue that has moved from the world of sci-'

arena in the United States, and

throughout

of the greenhouse

gases, we're

anything

experienced

more closely

of such a world

clearly

policy

the policy

world. All of us must begin to face up to the fact that if we contin-

ue emitting

face

the

for public

onstrated,

spectrum.

prospects

dem-

and the

in

going to

human

vast quantities temperature

of today's

a global

rise larger than

hearings

history.

The purpose

is to examine

implications

across

of a warmer

The Energy

policy

world

policy. And as

those

the drought conditions

stretch

have

considerations

energy

the public

Committee must move aggressively has contributed to the greenhouse

in

to exam-

effect and

ine

the kinds

verse the trend of increased

product of the burning of fossil fuels.

how energy

of changes

policy that

may be

needed to re-

dioxide, a key by-

emissions

of carbon

6

outstanding witnesses will join the committee

in this process, and I know that we can count on your counsel in

the future.

issue of climatic

my colleagues if they

make. [The prepared statement of Senator Wirth follows:]

I hope that today's

Today we have some of the finest researchers on the

change, but

before introducing

them, let me ask

have Opening remarks

that they might like to

7

Senator Tii W

NFIS RELEASE

U.S. Sena ic

Washington, D.C. • 20510

STATEMENT

OF

THE HONORABLE

TIMOTHY

JUNE

23,

1988

irth.

FOR RELASE:

'nURDAL JUNE S22g. 1988 (202) 224-5852

E.

WIRTH

I want to begin by thanking the Chairman of the Energy and

Natural Resources Committee, Senator Johnston, for his leadership on the

issue before the Committee today, global warming and the so-called

"greenhouse effect." Senator Johnston's assistance in convening this

hearing, and the two days of hearings I chaired last fall, has been

instrumental in focusing this Committee's attention on these profoundly

important issues. I also would like to welcome Senator Chafee and

Senator Baucus, who have consistently demonstrated their leadership in

the effort to protect the global environment.

In the past week, many of us have been seeing

first-hand the

effects of

the drought

that. is occurring

across

the heart

of

this

country.

Meterologists

already

are

recoding

this as

the

worst drought

this nation has experienced since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. The

most productive soils and some of the mightiest rivers on earth are

literally drying up. Let me just cite several examples. Already, more

than

been destroyed and the situation could get much worse. On Tuesday, the

50

per cent

of

the Northern

Plains'

wheat,

barley,

and oats

have

Mississippi

River

sank

to

its

lowest

point since

at

least

1872,

when tht

U.S.

Navy

first

began

measurements.

And

in

my

home

state

of

Colorado,

peak

flows

ore

among

the

lowest

on

record and

reservoir

levels are

alarmingly low.

MORE

8

We must begin to ask: is this a harbinger of things to come?

Is

this the first greenhouse stamp to leave its impression on our fragile

global environment? I understand that Dr. Hansen will provide testimony

today that points clearly in that direction.

The scientific community has done an outstanding job of compiling

and

analyzing

mountains

of evidence about

global

climate change.

As

I

read

it,

the

scientific

evidence

is

compelling:

the global

climate is

changing as the Earth's atmosphere gets warmer. Now, the Congress must begin to consider how we are going to slow or halt that warming trend,

and how we are going to cope with the changes that may already be

inevitable.

In essence, this is an issue that has moved from the world of

science to the policy arena.

All of us must begin to face up to the

fact that if we continue emitting vast quantities of the greenhouse gases, we are going to face a global temperature rise larger than

anything experienced

in

human history.

The purpose of today's hearing is to examine more closely the

prospects of a warmer world and the implications of such a world for

public policy. And as the drought conditions have clearly demonstrated, those considerations stretch across the public policy spectrum. The ",

Energy Committee must move aggressively to examine how energy policy has contributed to the the greenhouse effect, and the kinds of changes in

energy policy that may be needed.to reverse the trend of increased emissions of carbon dioxide, a by product to the burning of fossil

fuels, and 50 percent of the greenhouse problem.

PAE TREE

9

I hope that today's outstanding witnesses will join the committee

in this process and that we can count on their counsel again in the future. Today, we have with us some of the nation's finest researchers

on the issue of climatic change. Michael Oppenheimer, Senior Scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund and George Wooduell, Director of the

Wood's Hole Research Institute, two of the three Amer!can participants and major contributors to the report we are examining today from the

Beijer Institute.

James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose climate data have shown that four of the warmest years on

record have occurred during this decade. Dr. Syukuro Manabe from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Daniel Dudek of the Environmental Defense Fund, both of whom have done extensive work on the

implications

of climate change for agricultural patterns.

And Bill

Moomaw of the World Resources Institute, who has done extensive work on

the public policy responses that should be considered to address this problem. We thank you all for coming.

N

N

N

10

.AIo1, the newi for iuly 4. 2030

* The second t lI icade oft/ie year haj

17te15-oo sea-

wol huh to piotet BBaltimlore. Phila-

,d'lphia. New VOtA atd Boston held

4.tilUln 12-foot tides, hut a 25-foot

t, ti/cl

the Fjvt Coast

toi n ,ige

swept over the eastern tip o1

260 residents

haid tefsed to leave their homes

ihtlitt- ti ,iloil ei'actiontllorder Tire to/i of dead on Afa/rth Vitieyard. 'itimci t td Cope Cod is estimated atSO T/ii Ji0fatalhites are stillfurfew-

ethit sihe5.600 people who drowited tit

I it mouth t lint i iatne itl south Florida

* T euti'ito inches of rain front the

Iiiiitlne lOOled Washigton. DC.

ton

iho

Itland. drowning

had

,.tetplid the city for 62 straight days of

short of

90.pliistepetuttes This fell

tile itcoid lit eight reats ago whens72

coilleiiitive 90.plus days caused the

tlOi9*of the

let

A'i

the

heat

%ae

that

italtin

csapital to the cooler

enllott of ?latqlitette.Afich

* In

meted (ilt eihti/

I/l, healleld tie had been secretly wa-

epulhedu. Calif. neighbors ham-

Kidow to death %hen

tetlilA' 0 pot o Ket atit Pts

thit grlni, stop s

A fotnote to

The .oman's husband

11

had ihed of tihirst dimtti the California

di ought of ; 998

o /'Fnl riots

i,.o e out in France. whet e

 

IiICti

l/i,

ot11

fh'tiii

titttlid

hio

,

tt

tiled

itlli

1lli1d lilt' Ptiwlll

0

[)io it

hot / ( oIlld

I t

lilll i'

pt"

llllllltie

Iti

tie

Ri*ORDI,

1

PRI VIOL S (I

IMA|I(" CIIA\GIS SUGGISr

IIIAi I

VI

\

I\Il

I

Plaint

 

till

I/l'

I. S

/tit1 Otih't"

 
 

ititllt

 

om t1

lip

Ill

,italI(hetaitl

 

Ilo

dwtelo

.

Jhft14 the ololov)A101

1 '+Id

 
 

Ut

The first of (he'e thge.tls is thellu

 

*

Ill

Sr1ovi,

 

Ivt

bottlnists attiOllcd

horl

Satllmli t il

\10'iit

I it-'

it

lion caused

b

the rclease of.

hhorollu

 

thv 'lh of the li it ted spruce The spe-

isiI

this rejst

ta, 1 tilatcd Ciilll

has been ,\-

on

,:1refull%

111IISKIt',IIKI \',WASASI

sldercd forecast. f(o our

plan-

or'.'atons into the atliIphCle T hese

mn-lm-t+tade chemli.al collpojt lds

mole coiionl called ( F( s ar

clie% dttill

i1011 of

e

i li'i

t%

lttd

i

acid

t a cottlitilla

ftm"

globtil

 

l

lltlA

1 /

de,iIt

iler

/t

litdlillt

 

et by a "I& arle> ofSlen-

used as refrtigerattrs

and ci.iltis

 

and

a Is

huiehiil

the

4ichotage

ravi

IIstsas %AC",pil toiard ihe 21st c ntUlI

in the manufacture of eerthl',g

 

(fom

 

beat the .e)%

oi k

ifets

5 3

/I

Los

Pollutants

are saturatlng our atlll

pillhtws

to poly:y:rere

twttes fot

 

fast

4'

,eiei.

Ih

l)tolet

gattie ai'ainstthe

sphere

AIld rain. \huch

aiead% has

foW

Eer

since

their

It~eilltito

not

C51al,s

Gtmielar

 

scheduledfin tit; usual

had a desastatlig Illltt1

oil

prts of

 

S30 itn1

 

illtI poitpoted because

eastern

North

America

central

1 u-

quite 60 )eats ago (UCs ha\e been rising into the slratophere \hen the

ofthist

t011111

rope and oulhern Siandtna-.ia is one

hit the protects\ comer kittl n ats the

t

4'd t11i ll,,

 

tarlltet'ret

leasing a

otllle la

t

-

IO to

20 iiles up-

 

theN

ith

i'deti

tictlion il its/tke' along

mttanuifestation of this 1ittllutitn but i't clTe'ts tend it he regional Tlo smiila

raist hell because their chlorine coi-

potnent devours the molecules that

 

theI

it

Coitt Iltimicane Bruce is e-

and interrelated pillutant thrtats lt iii e\sen larger, and the\ ma% soon tff ti

peted

 

to

ttli

e

)

to

sea

dtuiting

the

mhr

Ill

tht

%hieIt, Sot/htest and

life on a global scale lth ha\e the

form the thin t/one shell As that layer is depleted. stronger and stronger

 

14 'tit

cottdittill

temttitl

'tilal

sear-

,tug hear thoiit (told dangetois levels ofl t avltvet tmdiatioti

so

potential of breaking

on the

on life

change

,atastrophit.

.tnd

earth s cinate

dt¢s

of

ultr,.|iolet

IUVI

raditllton

from the sun are able it) penetrate it

Skin diseases atid

the earth's surface

4P.10

liI',t

12

t\

(it

t1lt1t

I! MPI RAIWRI'i ('0)

II)

If \V1 I iil(Itll

', Ill

P i

I1 'NiVl\

Ip lani

'lie

f

iriihtoubl

des.li-1

ll11011.IlV

sthaie C\i'rls

011.\

file'

I .gili

etLAieti

iraduiion :aii cause

t

he tither major threat i\

xiui td lis

the t.utltirtuilig buildup ,tof lr'itindioii- ide nitri's uisgdcand trajc g ses il-

,

the

1t'ltlt0n

tlding

150 lit

Il(

s

ii

the atiorisphere

Iin

A) >ears sln{e the industr

lit

mani s

cti

Iles hase Cmrii-

iiuuu'iIs increased the atm sphertl

'illcetrati tons of these gas The rap-

fuels and

fir-

e\s hi\s nibiniiied t, creait a great ettusioini of these so-called greenhouse

idlt espindilig use i

flssil

ihe sast ticlsuii'o n if the edrth

tises

The% are

griern

that name tie.

,.ti'ie

tsheii

the>

rise

Into

the artio-

pheie

the)

foirm a kind of blanket it)

the skt

\uts heat filtin escaping the earth s

Ih.at let%ii

stlat he

t biut pie

tlliitli dt ft

ji1s

sRRIsk

t/1)

im lt

i

ite

t'il

I

fi

'l

.1 r-.11,!

Ill

<t>¢iOf

ltel

oftf ti

ill

It'

iet

liill'

t,ie

iin'

ill

hli-i

i

tte

I~iitit

tole

ti.i'

1

*illiii

inot

eithet

the

Io

the

ttilT

I

eriC'AIal

Li

oIf.iiii.'C

It'

mljllionl

hin-i

peril tlet'

,cltC

I lit

11)(0

)h1,kc.

Ipl-iwa iii

-\iritliuc

tn Io/oe

\%hent a

!tesel tl

ithewie

I.iei

il

lteit

eitfi.ar slnliti lit

il

tilit

Ieoiitdelh

ItAliii

tirmI

tire ii.

in

the u/te

197t

seli.atullis

i

ihr

i

didit

ll dll ia

paI\

iiui(hIttelllti

t'at"

I1 ilie

hil

thii

I. ltie the iitie hiole the .ieeiihouitu

fi'ne'eeii the ikisiltt

if silt, ti

elect %%.isouiethin solimlsis h.d .ii

tioillilwd bill it I" tetels llng fult'l

thai eut'ietd

Iii fa,.t

I)

Jtlies I1lju

Wit

iflheN A\SA (itdlid

lii'iluilt IoI

St id: Studies Ill \%etiN

lkIii

11ut'Ii.

that

sithui

10 ti

I

Ne'

,

tie

ortiih

l/

tdl 'A.ii

IhI

tI'et' Ilis

it

I I

i

c

i%.lcI

al

t'lt

.I i

l htll'

i

tdc oct

l$(,

ti I

,l

I

I

'

Ol

[

ill

O l

IJil

h

liohlI

I

t' ll

,,ii L.Il

,lil

le"

I

'le'\

mi

tch(

 

(it'.(

Altl

[lit:

I

ith

'l.lit' 11Nii l ll ,II

 

lr'il

.il

111Jl011i'lt hol tlec itjscd Ill Ic'~li't1C .It

N11 0,tlli .t~ktc

il

tls'o\t'lt

%"I'I'l

)to I

+i

'cd' l

1

I"l\t< ,lIilllb'lll

t lid ,I N.ilt

It

%hl'OM

I IlIl,

dv'lc\ ,

(ticilt" I+l

kti

I1

 

tkan qtllic k

hllI

 

j,

jitlll+c

 

.

pI,lld! ,ill't

 

ll[i

,in

,H

l"

+t+

 

,flldt~lli~l,tll~

< ,li

 

i

c"Il' lkt

+'

till, '

I'

It

I'l

i

mlll

l

fil

It S

 

,Itilt'k

 

'

I

.I1h-le Is

foamily

.11- lilt'

 

W"l

11

td]

,111 ,'

 

c l

t

ll

l

t

I It *ic

,

l

'

,;

1 1.

l

 

dlb~iii.t''.

 

\ i

 

',l

h,',

 

lladtct

 

I

,il

"

Itii.i~i '

i11t,i

 

%l

'

 

ti

iO ,t

Ill

tlet

I

N

'In

'

l

.lk'H Io

 

.l'w

"'li

"',

iljl

'

Ill

Itilt'

l

lolt'

'

l

l

I

l

,it 'ld

,w"

11

fl

llt lll

11'

11'

ltil ll

I bc,

 

,!11

t '

'js,

t'd

'll'ol~l

 

tkomldt

 

'lodl

.ovt

mI\c'I

"Itt!'

te

ill

llc

 

*l

i

"

ploI

,

o'l

.

1 I't'

;l

lt

M A,iq

 

[I'.ill

 

q C1i11, c'

'

,'

l,,

.111':

t-A

hl!I

:ild

 

t

.1!",'

lim<

 

.1t"

l

"'i

'All,

and

I

'

l

tt

Ill 101.11,1t1ic'-

 

\

t

'lh~

i

t

alt'N ll'it

ll

l

kll

m vl~li~

:,l

'

Il lit-

 

tit.le%

Ihl

k illi,it

lll

l"

.I,

ild

 

lil'

llkc~l'

 

t Il

he

I

Ii~,it

ll

ilt

IUl 1111011l

'li~it

t

'wI'111AI[Ile

I1il.d'Icd

 

I

.

i

llltoile 1l1 .1ld

t

JINsl'l

t1"

U,x

lk

.ltild

l

ii'lel

\\i

el l

( I

I.tl

c"

'l

lic

(ilt' lililtl-lie

 

ll

"Il

l

oncl

.111d~ltl'

tefl~il "C(lthlw

it

M

ietll

,1 Ill~lltSh'sl

*l'ilntcN

ll0i)tallllllq'

t

(

I

i(

" alet

I'li

\iell

dolIt~ l

anld

tile'

hl"101 1001'i."If

 

|iN lls

cillettl h e

 

i;

lloll

el

oh tit,

Ihe'lf

dill%

\%oilk

ml

iteo

oll~it .\t'i

 
 

]lilt:

Ill"'I. Olltlpoko'l

 

".

l llII

illl

I

0/011Clt dllqt'lhol

 

Is,

,i

'C

iIIN

i1.1ilcd

Sh %llftxtl

Ro\

Iklin

Aflter

Ict%

 

tl,

I

81

82

13

I)

I

Ii

1

I

ii

It

I

L

\

5

I

it

Roklald

liolnatletll

Ph I)

(he

III

ltielsil

N)

ohll IllII

he

ltincie

if'hi.ii

slialospheic

itolllj

altIis

W

iii

.'s their I fiths Il

li1lth i

and

ilt1 1''II

nt.01on i

%hufit

IC.i',

l

\011ii,11It.I

I

Ilhell

(

974

iclli

that

tliiuul all

the

tletn

eleased sinc

tire

caliied an

dilloll

c

lll

,

chalinjn oif

iteilla

'I lllloc

I ,1.1.lstI'

stite

.

I ( s lhittllnt

1910% \.

s-i.etilt

iii

1fie

toss,

',lih

.i

and thi,

ile

lIeti

on

tillh-

the

"'io,Id Ile cllte. led 10ItieII i lite fitir. I .st MIs Rosslind

Sellte Stilt-

tllpof tie

.a pI

It% Il1

1964

thle

.

llmllll

deljlailllt ni at th

i

ii

Il

llltl

il

ll s

ill

ith.h,

I

i

 

o'fIsi'C (

,lhfoiiiit

.11 If

ifie

\\ hell

Ihotl

,llds

of

mloic .illeN

i11) lite

0,1011C

he

iiiendfed

til

Alt'im1.

I

ltris

.

,iil

Ill shi

l

Fll t lli

iitit

ainia

i

9hell, ic-

'.ii ith

 

'c,h

11 11

1loI

I ah'iedale

 

111 1972

le

Isi

i.ItIilllt! iliit

tlI

Ile"

fields to C\

1it

il

hlut

l ilhi

itiC

,.

Ail

i

l

o

plolt,

At iIle

\I

(

ioileficn

los-

 

land lef nied ilil J.lnes I o\cls. k

lile

ftoir

tC1,11\thIite

dc,

niiitsed

(

I

(

.

unitl lhido\,

h lish

Scitititst

Iest

iall d stIIso

iell" silt,"ll

 

ll

iI/Oll

klo,\sn hIs

ia\ thle fCthes of th"

(lII

thall lie

sIun il

•ItIt

I

lic

oituo c lji

iliesis

!ilS

.i%

in,,, th

ilt! tol i leh had

,is

I

ilt

but 'tic

I

Ie

ti e lo\ o\ c1s k

,i

thlitl

pii,lhIun .d

h",

s1hitih.]t

on 0I stl ieN.,d a Slligl., III, iII?!Ciii

koliIIII

lhha

alt

life

eailh

tic joul

11.1

i

laI

h

laci

ti t to,.el\

h.i

, Ila

I (

N

s

I-

ileasild ( 1 (

h

(

,iiiioiii

Sitlt.gesied

i

d ,I,, atwphei

them

vt

t

Is shit

i

if

r

i

i.,s its

' and

tdl

,i

u

it the higtlh thiiuilth,,'

i' Iho

iii\ii11ti

ici

h.s

I

h

slt.hih

Iked

is It i

Il

r110 1s if

les.t'l

i,

t

IIi-

|hils

tt1111lde

ilic it

i

eIlle.iolil Is

Its

h,0 i,,l

0li

sils

lohl

[i

t'lii

ull

II,t/jdous

Aiii

itt.lh

ITi

\V ,sIes

siall,es

titiutikls

ind

CW

lhat

.eIl

tttluls

Il

1het'

tl 120 sels

IIltle'

.hin

if

".lhou[

alit

(

int

( t

(

hifilns

I!it,;

I

(

ii,

llle ,

.iln-

I2

ihe

ults. IIII111iitie 00

imc .Stil

It

.

11(

In

a\ iage Ile

~il.iHI

iajI

rIellliis ttkli

,.'tuttsiii

.,.ii

Iset .ilitustihiliee that tIil)'e fiot1i 75

A 120.1>.cr

cs iII rhIe allilospItele

esi'ti \A1sitlit

(

I

(

.121

kn_

ftithICi

uid telesis

klsCr tile

ile,

Itu dIntall

so~eitie

\ olld

suilli

eli

HRts,.antI aiuhndkoil- i

tuinle

it

III

I0 a\l.geC

alslt

400 k111),s

airnual-

ifile

h,/ad

Ross land is

i

ilt

uUsd

lIl

the

i

i,'

Itle had dolniercsc.hi

,in

1thwilIine\slh

is one

of the

,.,inilsi

1)I IO(RI.IAI 1)\

A\I)

llt

neni,

of ,hlorolhlwol,.alills

as %%ehl

 

Ai, l tn

~

h

l.11sl

tile

.1,:l011

Of

.SI

O

IOSSti

lUIlS

IIAVI

CALMI ) A IIUGi

light on henials . and he thought iI night he intetltirng to study the esen-

tual fate of(

i ( s in the atniolphere

Vhen Ro land began his insstiga-

L( i[rieini (itobet i171 the

tion al

annual picsutnon of

FCs it

the US

sa,,

on

the

order

of

850

million

pIounds )uPont %khichsoId theim ti- der the trade nanie Freon. "as the Ina. lo doirnesti. niariufaciuret Rosslaid

did his initial research v ith .Mat

t-

t

lhna

a l'tdss.toral student iAho hall

just

ie,.eued his Ph F) front

[krkele\

By De

enlis s had completed their reseafth and in June 1974 the> published a pa

ember ofthat year the i, o si-

per in

,uinte The results of their re-

searh

sserestartling

but as Ros land

says There \ias no moment iihen I

yelled 'Eureka' I just came home one

night and told my

sife. 'The siork is

going

ser> %%ellbut it hooks like the

end of the siorld

Molina

reported that C1 Cs isere being added to the ens ironmeni in steadily increas- ing amounts that they aren't de- stro>ed in the troposphere the loser aimospheret and that the), sursise for many decades, slovly drifting sipinto the stratosphere Once CFCs reach the

"

Rosland and

Briefly

put

14

\kill thu Nlml illt't

iick.

%l

lilt'f

+ Il

iullhuliiui

.uhllniiigrelt fl

u'

uil

Ri

ali t€Lewillit.s

l|l% i

lniil tile"Illitld

li1,1n tlfjhlil"

llJit-

,i

o f

Snt'It'lill.i

the

t°lle'

slulll

l

Ii