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probability

# probability

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05/11/2014

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#  The

concept of probability developed in a very strange manner .In 1654,a gambler chevalier de mere ,approached the well – known 17th century French philosopher & mathematician Blaise Pascal regarding certain dice problems . Pascal became interested in these problems , studied them and discussed them with another French mathematician , Pierre de Fermat . Both Pascal & Fermat solved the problems independently . This work was the beginning of probability Theory

 Probability

theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

BLAISE PASCAL

PIERRE DE FERMAT

Blaise Pascal (French pronunciation: (b. 162306-19 in Clermont-Ferrand, France, d. 1662-08-19 in Paris) was a French mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher. He was a child prodigy who was educated by his father, a civil servant. Pascal's earliest work was in the natural and applied sciences where he made important contributions to the construction of mechanical calculators, the probability the study of fluids, and clarified the concepts of pressure and vacuum by generalizing the work of Evangelista Torricelli. Pascal also wrote in defense of the scientific method.

Pierre de Fermat 17 August 1601 or 1607/8 – 12 January 1665) was a French lawyer at the Parliament of Toulouse, France, and an amateur mathematician who is given credit for early developments that led to modern calculus. In particular, he is recognized for his discovery of an original method of finding the greatest and the smallest ordinates of curved lines, which is analogous to that of the then unknown differential calculus, as well as his research into the theory of numbers. He made notable contributions to analytic geometry, probability, and optics. He is best known for Fermat's Last Theorem, which he described in a note at the margin of a copy of Diaphanous' Arithmetical.

 1.

The probability of an event A occurring is the number of outcomes that result in A divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
2. The probability of an event occurring plus the probability of the event not occurring equals 1. 3. The probability of event A AND event B occurring is the probability of event A times the probability of event B given that event A has already occurred.

 4.

The probability of event A OR event B occurring is the probability of event A occurring plus the probability of event B occurring minus the probability of both events occurring.  The probability of an event A occurring is the number of outcomes that result in A divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

Example: Tom rolls a fair die. What is the probability that the die will roll an even number?
Probability of even number = [2, 4, 6]/[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] Probability of even number = 3/6 Probability of even number = ½

The probability of an event occurring plus the probability of the event not occurring equals 1.
In other words, we can say with 100% certainty that an event will either occur or not occur. For instance, the probability of a fair, six-sided die rolling a 4 is 1/6. The probability of the die not landing on 4 is (1 - 1/6) or 5/6. 1/6 + 5/6 = 1.
This concept can be very helpful on the GMAT. Sometimes it is easier to determine the probability of an event not occurring than determining the probability of an event occurring. Once your know the probability of an event not occurring, you can subtract the probability from 1 to find the probability of an event occurring.

The probability of event A AND event B occurring is the probability of event A times the probability of event B given that event A has already occurred. Example: Joseph rolls two fair, six-sided die. What is the probability that both die will roll a 6? Probability of 1st die coming up 6: 1/6 Probability of 2nd die coming up 6: 1/6 Probability of both die coming up 6: (1/6) * (1/6) Probability of both die coming up 6: 1/36

The probability of event A OR event B occurring is the probability of event A occurring plus the probability of event B occurring minus the probability of both events occurring. Example: Charles rolls a fair, six-sided die. What is the probability of Charles rolling a 2 or a 4? Probability of 2: 1/6 Probability of 4: 1/6 Probability of a 2 or 4: 1/6 + 1/6 Probability of a 2 or 4: 2/6 Probability of a 2 or 4: 1/3

A certain deck of cards contains 2 blue cards, 2 red cards, 2 yellow cards, and 2 green cards. If two cards are randomly drawn from the deck, what is the probability that they will both are not blue? A. 15/28 B. 1/4 C. 9/16 D. 1/32 E. 1/16 ANS B 1/4

      

Which of these numbers cannot be a probability? 1. 0.5 2.1.001 3.0 4. 1 ANS 2 1.001

A

probability is always greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1, hence 2) above cannot represent probabilities 1.001 is greater than 1.

Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is a) equal to 1 b) equal to 4

c) less than 13 Solution to Question 4: a) The sample space S of two dice is shown below. S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6) (2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6) (3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6) (4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6) (5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6) (6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }

Let E be the event "sum equal to 1". There are no outcomes which correspond to a sum equal to 1, hence P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0

b) Three possible ouctcomes give a sum equal to 4: E = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}, hence.
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12

c) All possible ouctcomes, E = S, give a sum less than 13, hence. P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1

 

A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is obtained. Solution to Question 1: Let us first write the sample space S of the experiment. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Let E be the event "an even number is obtained" and write it down. E = {2,4,6}

We now use the formula of the classical probability. P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2 ans

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