P. 1
Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough

Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough

|Views: 935|Likes:
The dramatic series of protests and political events that unfolded in Ukraine
in the fall of 2004—the “Orange Revolution”—were seminal both for
Ukrainian history and the history of democratization. Its effects have already
been felt from Kyrgyzstan to Lebanon and are likely to travel even further.

Yet few anticipated such a dramatic democratic breakthrough in Ukraine.
Revolution in Orange is a pioneering effort to describe and explain the events
leading up to and through December 2004 from authors who had on-the-ground
experience interacting with the various Ukrainian,Western, and Russian
dramatis personae of the Orange Revolution.The result is a highly readable,
deeply informed, and insightful volume with lasting value as an explicator of
this remarkable episode in the history of Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
The dramatic series of protests and political events that unfolded in Ukraine
in the fall of 2004—the “Orange Revolution”—were seminal both for
Ukrainian history and the history of democratization. Its effects have already
been felt from Kyrgyzstan to Lebanon and are likely to travel even further.

Yet few anticipated such a dramatic democratic breakthrough in Ukraine.
Revolution in Orange is a pioneering effort to describe and explain the events
leading up to and through December 2004 from authors who had on-the-ground
experience interacting with the various Ukrainian,Western, and Russian
dramatis personae of the Orange Revolution.The result is a highly readable,
deeply informed, and insightful volume with lasting value as an explicator of
this remarkable episode in the history of Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

More info:

Published by: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Feb 03, 2010
Copyright:Traditional Copyright: All rights reserved
List Price: $13.00


Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
This book can be read on up to 6 mobile devices.
Full version available to members
See more
See less




Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics
and former director of the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie
Endowment. Michael McFaul is a senior associate at the Carnegie
Endowment, the Peter and Helen Bing senior fellow at the Hoover Institution,
and an associate professor of political science at Stanford University.
“Keen observers of the recent transition, Åslund and his coauthors write with
authority about the challenges and opportunities Ukraine faces today.
Drawing on broad experience in the region, they examine the situation
through a comparative lens. This book should be read carefully by students
and policy makers alike.”
—George Soros, Chairman, Open Society Institute
The dramatic series of protests and political events that unfolded in Ukraine
in the fall of 2004—the “Orange Revolution”—were seminal both for
Ukrainian history and the history of democratization. Its effects have already
been felt from Kyrgyzstan to Lebanon and are likely to travel even further.
Yet few anticipated such a dramatic democratic breakthrough in Ukraine.
Revolution in Orange is a pioneering effort to describe and explain the events
leading up to and through December 2004 from authors who had on-the-
ground experience interacting with the various Ukrainian,Western, and Russian
dramatis personae of the Orange Revolution. The result is a highly readable,
deeply informed, and insightful volume with lasting value as an explicator of
this remarkable episode in the history of Ukraine and Eastern Europe.



in Orango
Other Bnnks by the Carnegie Endnwment
Russian and Eurasian Prnject
Ccnir.| Asi.´s Scccn! C|.ncc
Marlla BriII OIcoll
Puiin´s Russi., Rctisc! .n! |xp.n!c! |!iiicn
IiIia Slovlsova
Bciuccn Dici.icrs|ip .n! Dcmccr.cµ. Russi.n Pcsi-Ccmmunisi
Pc|iiic.| Rc|crm
MiclaoI McIauI, NikoIai Iolrov, and Androi Ryabov
Russi.´s Rcsi|css Ircniicr. 1|c C|cc|nµ. I.cicr in Pcsi-Sctici Russi.
Dmilri V. Tronin, AIoksoi V. MaIaslonko, vill AnaloI Iiovon
K.z.||si.n. Un|u||i||c! Prcmisc
Marlla BriII OIcoll
Gcro.c|ct, Yc|isin ¿ Puiin. Pc|iiic.| Ic.!crs|ip in Russi.´s 1r.nsiiicn
Idilod by Arclio Brovn and IiIia Slovlsova
Russi. .|icr i|c I.||
Idilod by Androv C. Kuclins
1|c |n! c| |ur.si.. Russi. cn i|c Bcr!cr ociuccn Gccpc|iiics .n!
Dmilri V. Tronin
Russi. .|icr Ccmmunism
Idilod by Marlla BriII OIcoll and Andors AsIund
Gciiing |i Wrcng. Rcgicn.| Cccpcr.iicn .n! i|c Ccmmcnuc.|i| c|
|n!cpcn!cni Si.ics
Marlla BriII OIcoll, Andors AsIund, and Slorman W. Garnoll
in Orango
1|c Origins c| U|r.inc´s
Dcmccr.iic Brc.|i|rcug|
Andor AsIund
MiclaoI McIauI
W.s|ingicn, D.C.
© 2006 Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco. AII riglls rosorvod.
No parl of llis pubIicalion may bo roproducod or lransmillod in any form or by any
moans villoul pormission in vriling from llo Carnogio Indovmonl.
Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco
1779 Massaclusolls Avonuo, N.W., Waslinglon, D.C. 20036
202-483-7600, Iax 202-483-1840
Tlo Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco normaIIy doos nol lako
inslilulionaI posilions on pubIic poIicy issuos, llo viovs and rocommondalions
prosonlod in llis pubIicalion do nol nocossariIy roprosonl llo viovs of llo
Carnogio Indovmonl, ils officors, slaff, or lrusloos.
1c cr!cr, ccni.ci.
Hopkins IuIfiIImonl Sorvico
I.O. Box 50370, BaIlimoro, MD 21211-4370
1-800-537-5487 or 1-410-516-6956
Iax 1-410-516-6998
Composilion by Sloplon McDougaI
Maps by Davo MorriII
Ilolos by U|r.ins|. pr.t!. and AI/Wido WorId Ilolos
Irinlod by Idvards Brollors, Inc.
Iior.rµ c| Ccngrcss C.i.|cging-in-Puo|ic.iicn !.i.
RovoIulion in orango : llo origins of Ukraino´s domocralic broakllrougl /
Andors AsIund and MiclaoI McIauI.
p. cm.
IncIudos indox.
Summary: ¨Tlis voIumo oxpIoros llo roIo of formor prosidonl Kuclma and llo
oIigarcls, sociolaI alliludos, llo roIo of llo poIilicaI opposilion and civiI socioly, llo
imporlanco of llo modia, and llo roIos of Russia and llo Wosl¨÷Irovidod by
ISBN-13: 978-0-87003-221-9 (pbk.)
ISBN-10: 0-87003-221-6 (pbk.)
ISBN-13: 978-0-87003-222-6 (cIoll)
ISBN-10: 0-87003-222-4 (cIoll)
1. Irosidonls÷Ukraino÷IIoclion, 2004. 2. Conloslod oIoclions÷Ukraino.
3. Ukraino÷Hislory÷Orango RovoIulion, 2004. 4. Ukraino÷IoIilics and
govornmonl÷1991- I. AsIund, Andors, 1952- II. McIauI, MiclaoI. III. TilIo.
}N6639.A5R48 2006
947.708´6÷dc22 2005037725
11 10 09 08 07 06 1 2 3 4 5 1sl Irinling 2006
Iorovord. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
jcssic. 1. M.i|cus
Map of Ukraino . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Inlroduclion: Iorspoclivos on llo Orango RovoIulion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
An!crs Às|un! .n! Mic|.c| McI.u|
1. Tlo Ancion Rógimo: Kuclma and llo OIigarcls . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
An!crs Às|un!
2. Tlo IaII and Riso of Ukraino´s IoIilicaI Opposilion: Irom
Kuclmagalo lo llo Orango RovoIulion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
A!ri.n K.r.inµc|µ
3. Ivoryday Ukrainians and llo Orango RovoIulion . . . . . . . . . . . 45
1.r.s Kuzic
4. Tlo Triumpl of CiviI Socioly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
N.!i. Diu|
5. Iora÷¨Il´s Timo¨ for Domocracy in Ukraino . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
P.tc| Dcmcs .n! jccrg Icrorig
6. Tlo Ukrainian Modia RoboIIion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
O|cn. Prµiu|.
vi contents
7. Woslorn InfIuonco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
O|c|s.n!r Sus||c .n! O|cn. Prµsi.µ|c
8. Russia´s RoIo in llo Orango RovoIulion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Ni|c|.i Pcirct .n! An!rci Rµ.oct
ConcIusion: Tlo Orango RovoIulion
in a Comparalivo Iorspoclivo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Mic|.c| McI.u|
AcknovIodgmonls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
Appondix: IIoclion RosuIls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
Indox . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Aboul llo Conlribulors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
ClronoIogy of llo Orango RovoIulion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . foId-oul
Wlo´s Wlo in Ukraino . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . foId-oul
the meaning of major ovonls unfoIds ovor docados and conlurios.
Aclions llal broak Iiko vavos on llo noarosl sloro lil dislanl Iands Ialor,
and llo orosion llal oacl vavo causos Ioads lo furllor clango yoars
lonco. Hislorians Ioarn by survoying muIlipIo Iandscapos and by rovis-
ing and improving accounls as limo goos on.
Tlo Orango RovoIulion in Ukraino vas corlainIy a major lisloricaI
ovonl. Wo knov llis ovon a yoar aflor il lapponod. In Marcl 2005, lun-
drods of llousands of Iobanoso consciousIy invokod llo Ukrainian ox-
ampIo as lloy poacofuIIy massod in Boirul lo domand soIf-govornanco.
Kyrgyzslan´s so-caIIod TuIip RovoIulion look inspiralion from Ukraino,
loo. Nondomocralic ruIors undorslood llo lisloricaI significanco, as voII.
In May 2005, Clinoso Iromior Hu }inlao issuod a roporl lo llo Commu-
nisl Iarly ConlraI Commilloo oulIining poIicios lo ¨crusl U.S. allompls
lo slarl a coIor rovoIulion in Clina.¨ Zimbabvo adoplod nov poIicios
cracking dovn on nongovornmonlaI organizalions, vlicl aro soon as
voclors of poacofuI rovoIulion. Irilroa in May 2005 inlroducod a nov
Iav slarpIy Iimiling llo roIo of nongovornmonlaI organizalions. And,
of courso, Russia and llo noiglboring slalos of Azorbaijan, BoIarus,
Kazaklslan, and Uzbokislan lavo ligllonod conlroIs lo provonl a ro-
pIay of llo Orango RovoIulion in lloir counlrios. Il is procisoIy bocauso
llo Ukrainian ovonls voro so lisloricaIIy significanl llal lloso nondomo-
cralic govornmonls lavo aclod lo provonl lloir ropolilion.
viii foreword
Tlo prosonl voIumo is a pionooring offorl lo doscribo and oxpIain llo
ovonls Ioading up lo and llrougl Novombor and Docombor, 2004÷llo
acls of llo ¨RovoIulion,¨ as il is caIIod. Il is an iniliaI lislory and anaIy-
sis. In llo yoars lo como, lislorians viII mino llis lroalmonl and ar-
clivos of officiaI documonls (if lloy bocomo avaiIabIo) lo fiII oul llo
Iionooring aIvays onlaiIs risk, jusl as il carrios oxcoplionaI rovards.
Wo voro confidonl lo undorlako lloso risks bocauso vo voro Iod by lvo
oxcoplionaI, liglIy informod, and ongagod scloIars, Andors AsIund and
MiclaoI McIauI. AsIund is nol onIy a ronovnod oconomisl and McIauI
an oulslanding poIilicaI scionlisl, bul boll mon lavo sponl oxlonsivo
amounls of limo ovor llo yoars vorking in Ukraino and oslabIisling
connoclions lloro. Tloir cIoso lios lo Ukraino÷AsIund vas in Kyiv dur-
ing llo Orango RovoIulion÷onabIod llom lo idonlify and rocruil llo
bosl possibIo aullors for llis book. Mosl of lloso aullors aro llomsoIvos
Ukrainian, vliIo llo claplor on Russia´s roIo in llis poriod is vrillon by
oulslanding Russian scloIars from llo Carnogio Moscov Conlor. AII of
llo aullors loro aro nol onIy rocognizod Ioadors in lloir fioIds, lloy aII
lad on-llo-ground oxporionco inloracling vill llo various Ukrainian,
Woslorn, and Russian dramalis porsonao of llo Orango RovoIulion.
Tlo rosuIl is a liglIy roadabIo, doopIy informod, and insigllfuI voI-
umo, an invaIuabIo firsl drafl of llo lislory of llis romarkabIo opisodo.
Ior making llis book possibIo, vo aro gralofuI lo llo Iav Roform
Inslilulo, llo Gorman MarslaII Iund of llo Unilod Slalos, llo Inlorna-
lionaI Ronaissanco Ioundalion, and llo Clopivsky IamiIy Ioundalion.
÷}ossica T. Mallovs
Irosidonl, Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco
Perspectives on
the Orange Revolution
anders åslund and michael mcfaul
on sunday, november 21, 2004, llo socond round of llo liglIy con-
loslod prosidonliaI oIoclions in Ukraino look pIaco. Tlo noxl day, il bo-
camo cIoar llal Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma´s incumbonl rogimo lad
crudoIy riggod llo oIoclions lo llo advanlago of ils candidalo, Irimo
Minislor Viklor Yanukovycl. Willoul losilalion, llo claIIongor, Viklor
Yuslclonko, a formor primo minislor, docIarod llo viclory lad boon
sloIon from lim and urgod cilizons lo gallor al ¨Maidan,¨ Kyiv´s Indo-
pondonco Squaro in llo conlor of llo cily. Yuslclonko´s caII vas loard
llrougl mucl of llo counlry llanks lo TV ClannoI 5, vlicl vas ovnod
by Iolro Ioroslonko, a voaIlly businossman in Yuslclonko´s Our
Ukraino parly. Ollors slayod connoclod via llo Inlornol, nolabIy llo
Wob novspapor U|r.ins|. pr.t!., and aIso kopl in loucl on mobiIo
plonos. In llo froozing morning lours of Novombor 22, llousands gall-
orod al Maidan. Tloir numbors grov and grov unliI lloy finaIIy roaclod
rouglIy ono miIIion. Iacl prosidonliaI candidalo docIarod limsoIf prosi-
donl÷a cIassic silualion of duaI sovoroignly. Tlo Orango RovoIulion
lad bogun.
Tlo immodialo causo of llo rovoIulion is abundanlIy cIoar: llo oId
rogimo lad brazonIy sloIon llo oIoclions. Tlo opposilion÷llo rigllfuI
vinnors÷domandod llal llo Iav of llo Iand bo oboyod, vliIo llo in-
cumbonl rogimo onIy prolondod lo do so.
2 anders åslund and michael mcfaul
Aflor llo firsl round of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion on Oclobor 31, llo
ConlraI IIoclion Commission, vlicl vas offoclivoIy conlroIIod by llo
govornmonl, doIayod llo announcomonl of llo finaI volo counls for many
days, arousing vido-sproad suspicion of volo rigging. In llo ond, lov-
ovor, il announcod llal Yuslclonko lad von ovor Yanukovycl by llo
liniosl of margins. Bul sinco noillor candidalo von an absoIulo major-
ily, a run-off oIoclion vas scloduIod for Novombor 21. MoanvliIo, llo
faiIod candidalos from llo firsl round of oIoclions llrov lloir supporl
bolind Yuslclonko, rondoring lim llo obvious favorilo in llo upcom-
ing run-off. IubIic opinion poIIs aIso poinlod lo a Yuslclonko viclory.
Bul, il vas aIso vidoIy oxpoclod llal llo incumbonl rogimo vouId rig
llo run-off oIoclions.
Iour procossos compriso llo Orango RovoIulion. Tlo firsl and mosl
significanl ovonl vas llo popuIar prolosl, vlicl occurrod in sovoraI
major cilios llrougloul Ukraino bul vas conconlralod in Maidan in
dovnlovn Kyiv. Aflor llo socond oIoclion, a cily of 1,500 lonls vas
sviflIy sol up on llo Klroslclalyk, Kyiv´s main llorouglfaro adjaconl
lo Maidan. Massos of poopIo roamod llo slrools al aII limos, lloir num-
bors baIIooning lo lundrods of llousands ovory ovoning vlon
Yuslclonko and ollor rovoIulionary Ioadors spoko from a major slago
on llo squaro÷lloir domands for domocracy and froodom simuIla-
noousIy loIovisod on ClannoI 5. Tlo diIomma for llo proloslors vas
llal lloy Iackod a cIoar slralogy for laking povor. AIllougl somo pro-
loslors caIIod for llo soizuro of govornmonl buiIdings (simiIar lo vlal
llo Goorgian proloslors did in llo Roso RovoIulion llo yoar boforo),
Yuslclonko and mosl of lis cIoso circIo of advisors calogoricaIIy ro-
joclod any aclion llal migll provoko vioIonco. Al llo samo limo, lloy
aIso vorriod llal llo govornmonl migll oulIasl llo prolosl and consid-
orod a spoody concIusion vilaI. To llis ond, proloslors bIockadod llo
main govornmonl buiIdings, offoclivoIy slulling dovn llo govornmonl,
and onsuring a proIongod sland off.
Tlo socond procoss al vork vas llo nogolialion bolvoon llo rogimo
and llo opposilion modialod by IoIisl Irosidonl AIoxandor
Kvasniovski, Iilluanian Irosidonl VaIdas Adamkus, llo IU´s Higl
Roprosonlalivo }avior SoIana, and Russian Slalo Duma Spoakor Boris
GryzIov. Boll Yanukovycl and Yuslclonko parlicipalod in lloso no-
golialions, vlicl aimod al compromiso and a poacofuI soIulion. Tlo
modialors succoodod in loIping lo slrucluro a diaIoguo bolvoon oppos-
ing forcos and dolorrod boll sidos from laking radicaI or vioIonl aclion,
bul lloy did nol rosoIvo llo sland off.
introduction 3
Tlo llird procoss pIayod oul in parIiamonl and an array of courls,
vlicl landIod various compIainls aboul llo oIoclions. Aflor llo Rada,
Ukraino´s parIiamonl, rofusod lo ralify llo officiaI rosuIls roIoasod by
llo ConlraI IIoclion Commilloo, llo mallor vas landod ovor lo llo Su-
promo Courl for adjudicalion. On Docombor 3, llo Supromo Courl is-
suod a crilicaI docision vlon il ruIod llo socond round of llo prosidon-
liaI oIoclions nuII and void. Tlo courl docidod llal a rorun vouId lako
pIaco on Docombor 26. WliIo llis docision salisfiod llo Yuslclonko
camp´s dosiro lo roacl oarIy cIosuro, llo incumbonl rogimo did nol bon-
ofil in any vay. AIllougl llis docision vas vidoIy voIcomod by llo
opposilion, mass domonslralions conlinuod. Somolling moro vas
noodod lo bring aclivo prolosls lo an ond.
Tlo fourll and finaI ovonl camo in llo form of a pacl bolvoon llo
incumbonls and llo opposilion llal amondod llo conslilulion. On Do-
combor 8, llo Ukrainian parIiamonl approvod amondmonls subslan-
liaIIy roducing llo povors of llo prosidonl, somolling of groal inlorosl
lo llo curronl Irosidonl Kuclma and lis coIIoaguos in viov of a IikoIy
vin by llo opposilion. In rolurn, llo parIiamonl aIso approvod clangos
in oIocloraI Iav clampionod by llo opposilion and inlondod lo roduco
opporlunilios for fraud. Will llis pacl in pIaco, boll sidos agrood lo
rorun llo socond round of oIoclions in Docombor.
Tlis rorun did lako pIaco on Docombor 26, 2004. Tlo voling occurrod
in good ordor vill an oxlraordinary numbor of foroign obsorvors on
land. Yuslclonko dofoalod Yanukovycl vill 52 porconl of llo volos
casl, againsl 44 porconl, vlicl vas probabIy cIoso lo llo roaI rosuIls of
Novombor 21. Yanukovycl conloslod llo rosuIls in llo courls vill groal
vigor, bul vill voak ovidonco. NonolloIoss, lis muIlipIo prolosls do-
Iayod llo concIusion of llo oIoclions and llo inauguralion of llo nov
IinaIIy, on }anuary 23, 2005, llo Supromo Courl corlifiod llo rosuIls
and Yuslclonko look llo oall of offico, inauguralod boll in IarIiamonl
and al Maidan. Tlo aclivo plaso of llo Orango RovoIulion vas ovor. Ils
mosl inlonso poriod Iaslod from Novombor 22 unliI Docombor 8, and
Yuslclonko´s inauguralion markod ils ond.
Tlo namo of llo ¨Orango¨ RovoIulion comos from llo campaign
coIor closon by llo Yuslclonko campaign in llo summor of 2004.
Orango did nol lavo any prior idooIogicaI connolalion. Tlo aIlorna-
livo vouId lavo boon llo lradilionaI Ukrainian bIuo and yoIIov coI-
ors, bul llo groalosl llroal lo Yuslclonko´s candidacy vas lo bo Ia-
boIod a radicaI Woslorn Ukrainian nalionaIisl, vlon llo cruciaI sving
4 anders åslund and michael mcfaul
oIocloralo Iivod in conlraI Ukraino. So llo noulraI orango vas closon.
Tlo Yuslclonko campaign´s mosl visibIo sIogan road simpIy ¨!
(Yos!) Yuslclonko.¨ Tlo omplasis Iay singIo-mindodIy on domocracy
and froodom.
WoII boforo llo socond round, poopIo on boll sidos of llo molaplori-
caI barricados anlicipalod llal lloy vouId bo compoIIod lo assumo plysi-
caI posilions on opposilo sidos of roaI barricados. Tlo Roso RovoIulion
in Goorgia, vlicl occurrod aImosl oxaclIy ono yoar oarIior in Novom-
bor 2003, providod inspiralion and a lisloricaI modoI. Will llo oIoclion
dalo sol voII in advanco, lloro vas mucl spocuIalion aboul lov ovonls
vouId unfoId and boll sidos carofuIIy mappod lloir slralogy. As oarIy
as }uIy 2004, convonlionaI visdom in Kyiv suggoslod llal Yuslclonko
vouId vin llo roaI oIoclion in llo socond round, bul Yanukovycl vouId
sloaI llo oIoclions and Yuslclonko supporlors vouId lako lo llo slrools.
Tlo onIy quoslion vas vlollor llo opposilion couId raIIy onougl
proloslors lo offoclivoIy claIIongo llo corrupl oIoclion rosuIls. Anlici-
paling a simiIar sconario, llo Yanukovycl camp pursuod ils ovn pubIic
roIalions campaign, ossonliaIIy arguing llal Ukrainians voro loo dociIo
lo pursuo a rovoIulion of lloir ovn.
Boll sidos soomod lo acl in accordanco vill lloir Iong-proparod
scripls, bul vlo vouId provaiI vas far from corlain. Undorslanding vly
and lov llo Yuslclonko camp did vin÷vly llo Orango RovoIulion
succoodod÷is llo conlraI purposo of llis book. Wo lavo focusod on oigll
broad faclors llal infIuoncod llo oulcomo of llo Orango RovoIulion: llo
naluro of llo oId rogimo, llo slrongll, slralogy, and laclics of llo poIili-
caI opposilion, sociolaI alliludos, llo roIo of civiI socioly, llo sludonl
movomonl, (Il´s Timo), llo modia, Russia, and llo Wosl.
To oslabIisl conloxl, in claplor ono Andors AsIund discussos llo oIi-
garclic naluro of Ukraino´s oId rogimo. Irosidonl Kuclma pillod llo
oIigarcls againsl ono anollor and slalo povor vas novor fuIIy consoIi-
dalod. As llo oconomy grov rapidIy, llo numbor of succossfuI busi-
nossmon grov and lloy bocamo moro assorlivo and aggrossivo lovard
oacl ollor. Ixpanding oconomic pIuraIism Iaid llo ground for poIilicaI
pIuraIism, bul compolilion villin llo oId rogimo vas so sovoro llal
lloro vas no coloronl rosponso lo groving poIilicaI opposilion.
Irivalizalion, soparalion of proporlios, and consoIidalion of onlorprisos
gavo big businossmon groalor socurily, bul did IillIo lo miligalo lloir
aclivism. Tlus, groal onlropronouriaI aspiralions and uncorlain prop-
orly riglls gonoralod oulIandisl campaign financing. UIlimaloIy, llo
oconomy and socioly lad ovoIvod boyond llo oId rogimo.
introduction 5
In claplor lvo, Adrian Karalnycky discussos llo omorgonco of a
broad-basod roformisl, domocralic opposilion in Ukraino. Tlrougloul
llo 1990s, llo onIy consislonl opposilion camo from llo communisls
and sociaIisls. A landfuI of domocralic roformors voro prosonl in llo
various adminislralions, bul lloy voro fov and lloir parlicipalion in
govornmonl kopl llom oul of consislonl opposilion. Tlo firsl significanl
non-sociaIisl opposilion omorgod undor IavIo Iazaronko aflor lo vas
ouslod as primo minislor in 1997. In Ialo 2000, llo murdor of journaIisl
Hoorliy Gongadzo and rovoIalions of Irosidonl Kuclma´s invoIvomonl
Iod lo llroo monlls of slrool domonslralions in Kyiv undor llo bannor
¨Ukraino villoul Kuclma.¨ Yol llo onIy viabIo poIilicaI roform Ioador
al llo limo, llon-primo minislor Viklor Yuslclonko, did nol join lloso
prolosls. OnIy vill llo sacking of Yuslclonko in ApriI 2001 did llo
baso for a broad roformisl opposilion omorgo, and Yuslclonko succoss-
fuIIy Iod lis Our Ukraino bIoc in llo parIiamonlary oIoclions in Marcl
2002. Tlo domocralic opposilion lad boon formod and llo slago vas sol
for prosidonliaI oIoclions in Oclobor 2004, vill Yuslclonko as llo domi-
nanl opposilion candidalo.
Bul vlal did Ukrainians acluaIIy llink` Taras Kuzio oxaminos soci-
olaI alliludos in claplor llroo. ¨Kuclmagalo,¨ llo poIilicaI crisis rosuIl-
ing from Kuclma´s aIIogod invoIvomonl in llo murdor of Gongadzo,
sol llo slago omolionaIIy. Tlo incumbonl rogimo vas porcoivod as cor-
rupl and criminaI, and as limo passod lloso alliludos bocamo moro doopIy
ingrainod. WliIo Ukraino onjoyod ligl oconomic grovll, poopIo did
nol porcoivo a posilivo clango in lloir ovn Iivos. Tloy boIiovod llo
monoy vas fIoving lo oIigarcls and organizod crimo, lloroforo
Yanukovycl´s vords aboul oconomic succoss foII on doaf oars. And al-
lompls by llo rogimo and ils Russian consuIlanls lo uso anli-Amorican
propaganda againsl Yuslclonko voro oquaIIy fruilIoss. Tlo slark cloico
bolvoon Yuslclonko, vlo vas vidoIy porcoivod as ¨cIoan,¨ and
Yanukovycl, vlo vas an ox-convicl, mado il oasy for llo opposilion lo
prosonl llo oIoclion as a cloico bolvoon good and oviI. IinaIIy, llo sIo-
gan ¨Back lo Iuropo!¨ sorvod lo mobiIizo llo Wosl-orionlod parl of so-
cioly, vliIo llo Iasl did nol soom lo lavo mucl figlling spiril.
Ukraino possossod llo mosl maluro civiI socioly of any posl-Soviol
slalo and Nadia Diuk oxpIoros llis lislory in dolaiI in claplor four. In
llo mid-1980s vlon il bocamo poIilicaIIy possibIo, a Iargo numbor of
civic organizalions and inilialivos omorgod, incIuding broad civiI orga-
nizalions, llink lanks, moniloring groups, and modia. Civic groups usod
llo Inlornol oxlonsivoIy for informalion and communicalion. Nongov-
6 anders åslund and michael mcfaul
ornmonlaI organizalions conduclod opinion poIIs and monilorod oIoc-
lions. Tlo ono slorlcoming vas llal llis slrong civiI socioly couId nol
communicalo vill llo rogimo. Insload, from 2000 a varioly of nongov-
ornmonlaI organizalions spoarloadod llo prolosl movomonl againsl llo
rogimo by innovalivo moans. By llo faII of 2004, lloy succoodod in gol-
ling sovoraI lundrod llousand poopIo inlo llo slrool llrougloul Ukraino.
Tlo nongovornmonlaI organizalions oxcoIIod in poacofuInoss and lloy
pIayod a docisivo roIo in llo Orango RovoIulion.
In claplor fivo, IavoI Domos and }oorg Iorbrig oxpIoro Iora, llo group
llal spoarloadod civiI aclion in Ukraino. Tlo aullors prosonl a picluro
of an amazingIy capabIo and limoIy organizalion. Ioundod in Marcl
2004 as a nalionaI counciI of nongovornmonlaI organizalions, Iora
quickIy grov inlo a counlryvido nolvork inspirod by simiIar movo-
monls in Goorgia, Sorbia, and SIovakia. Ils campaign consislod of six
oIomonls: dovoIopmonl of an organizalionaI slrucluro, formalion of a
campaign slralogy, lraining aclivisls, an informalion campaign, a ro-
sponso lo roprossion, and mobiIizalion for froo and fair oIoclions. AI-
llougl Iora rocoivod a vory smaII amounl of foroign funding, llo driv-
ing forco bolind Iora vas llo onorgy of ils ovn aclivisls.
OIona IryluIa, odilor-in-cliof of llo Inlornol novspapor U|r.ins|.
pr.t!., dissocls llo roIo of llo modia in llo Orango RovoIulion in clap-
lor six. On llo ono land, slo dopicls a modia llal vas rigorousIy con-
lroIIod by pro-rogimo oIigarcls. On llo ollor land, slo doscribos a
Ukraino llal did mainlain indopondonl and opposilion modia. Tlo op-
posilion lad sovoraI big novspapors, and Zcr|.|c iµz|ni. vas an oul-
slanding indopondonl inloIIocluaI vookIy. Rallor surprisingIy, llo ro-
gimo aIIovod llo opposilion lo buy a significanl cabIo clannoI, ClannoI
5, vlicl bocamo llo voico of llo Orango RovoIulion. Bocauso of llo
poor quaIily of mosl novspapors, llo Inlornol camo lo pIay a surpris-
ingIy significanl roIo in Ukraino. Tlal vas parlicuIarIy lruo of llo onIino
pubIicalion U|r.ins|. pr.t!., vlicl sorvod as llo main novs modium
of llo Orango RovoIulion. TragicaIIy, llis vobsilo pIayod an addilionaI
roIo in onding llo oId rogimo vlon llo murdor of ils firsl odilor-in-
cliof, Hoorliy Gongadzo, sparkod prolosl.
In claplor sovon, OIoksandr Suslko and OIona Iryslayko considor
llo roIo of llo Wosl in llo Orango RovoIulion. Worriod by llo roIo llo
Wosl pIayod in ousling Iduard Slovardnadzo in Goorgia a yoar oarIior,
llo oId rogimo domonizod Woslorn invoIvomonl. Tlo Wosl did lavo an
inlorosl in llo Ukrainian oIoclion, namoIy lo promolo domocralic vaI-
uos, bul il vas lardIy nofarious. Tlo IU vas ambivaIonl and losilanl lo
introduction 7
bogin vill bocauso aIllougl llo nov IU mombor slalos favorod pro-
moling domocracy in Ukraino, llo oId IU mombors bogan from a Rus-
sia-firsl posilion. Hovovor, as vioIalions of domocralic praclico bocamo
rampanl, llo IU unilod around a pro-domocracy posilion. Tlo Unilod
Slalos lad lakon groalor inlorosl in Ukraino aII aIong, and il adoplod a
cIoar pro-domocracy sland, lo vlicl il dovolod significanl rosourcos.
Somo Woslorn supporl vonl lo llo NGO soclor, bul il vas quilo smaII.
Tlo main Woslorn aclivily vas lo mobiIizo an unprocodonlod numbor
of inlornalionaI oIoclion obsorvors. Tloir roIo in oxposing Iargo-scaIo oIoc-
loraI fraud cannol bo undoroslimalod. Aflor llo socond-round oIoclion,
individuaI Woslorn poIilicians parlicipalod in nogolialions vill llo lvo
Ioading conlondors. In llo ond, llo Ukrainian oIoclion drama sorvod lo
unilo llo Wosl around domocralic vaIuos.
Russian scloIars NikoIai Iolrov and Androi Ryabov considor Russia´s
roIo in llo Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclions in claplor oigll. In Moscov,
llo Russian prosidonliaI adminislralion dofondod Russian inlorosls in
llo Ukrainian oIoclions, aIIoving noillor llo socurily sorvicos nor llo
Minislry for Ioroign Affairs lo pIay any roIo. Tlo aullors arguo llal llo
KromIin sorvod Kuclma, laving docidod oarIy on lo back lis candi-
dalo, rallor llan pursuing any poIilicaI agonda of ils ovn in Ukraino.
Tlo Russian slalo providod llo Ukrainian slalo vill ampIo monolary
bonofils boforo llo oIoclions and clannoIod Russian businoss funds lo
llo Yanukovycl campaign. In addilion, sovoraI Russian poIilicaI con-
suIlanls vorkod in Ukraino for Yanukovycl (as did a fov, Ioss visibIo
onos for Yuslclonko) In llo socond round of llo oIoclions, Irosidonl
Iulin limsoIf bocamo porsonaIIy invoIvod in Yanukovycl´s campaign.
In singIing oul lloso koy faclors, vo lavo doIiboraloIy focusod on llo
proximalo causos of llo Orango RovoIulion. To varying dogroos, aII of
llo claplors discuss llo doopor, slrucluraI procossos al vork. Bul llo
book´s ovoraII conlribulion is lo provido ono of llo firsl comprolonsivo
accounls of llo slorl-lorm variabIos llal combinod lo produco llo Or-
ango RovoIulion.
In llo finaI claplor, MiclaoI McIauI pIacos llo Orango RovoIulion in
comparalivo porspoclivo. In llo firsl parl of llo claplor, McIauI com-
paros llo Orango RovoIulion lo ollor roconl oIocloraI broakllrougls in
llo rogion÷Sorbia 2000, Goorgia 2003, and Kyrgyzslan 2005÷sooking
lo dislinguisl vlal faclors voro simiIar and nocossary in aII of lloso
casos and lloorizing aboul llo condilions undor vlicl ollor counlrios
migll undorgo coIor rovoIulions of lloir ovn. In llo socond parl of llo
claplor, McIauI comparos llo Ukrainian drama of llo faII of 2004 lo
8 anders åslund and michael mcfaul
ollor rovoIulions moro gonoraIIy, sooking lo ansvor llo quoslion: vas
llo Orango RovoIulion roaIIy a rovoIulion`
As aII llo aullors aro discussing difforonl aspocls of llo samo ovonls,
mucl of llo lislory is inovilabIy ropoalod in llo various claplors. As
odilors, rallor llan doIolo llis ropolilion vo lavo Iol llo aullors iIIumi-
nalo llo samo facls from difforonl angIos, inspirod by Iavronco DurroII
in lis AIoxandria Quarlol. Wo lavo nol lriod lo lono dovn difforoncos
of opinion, vliIo vo lavo ondoavorod lo vorify llo facls. IinaIIy, vo
lavo oslabIislod }anuary 23, 2005, as a firm cul-off dalo, so as nol lo
aIIov llo slory of llo rovoIulion lo bo fIavorod by Ialor ovonls. On llal
dalo, llo viclory of llo Orango RovoIulion vas IogaIIy concIudod and
llo rogimo clango comsummalod. In llis book, vo rofrain from dis-
cussing llo formuIalion of llo nov govornmonl of llo Orango rovoIu-
lionarios and ils dramas.

1. Tlo obsorvalion of ono of llo aullors during a visil lo Kyiv in }uIy 2004.
chapter one
The Ancien Régime:
Kuchma and the Oligarchs
anders åslund
at the outset of the Orango RovoIulion, Ukraino vas a liglIy oIi-
garclic rogimo, far moro so llan Russia. Il vas dominalod by llroo
voaIlly rogionaI oIigarclic groups, vlicl ovnod Iargo congIomoralos.
Tloy onjoyod cIoso connoclions vill Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma, lad
Iargo parly faclions in parIiamonl, ovnod modia ompiros, bonofilod from
oxlonsivo govornmonlaI priviIogos, and conlroIIod many imporlanl of-
ficiaIs, incIuding poopIo in branclos of Iav onforcomonl.
Tlo onigma of llo rovoIulion in Ukraino is lov llo miglly couId
Ioso povor llrougl an oIoclion villoul bIoodslod. Mosl of llo oxpIa-
nalion Iios in llo vory slrucluro of llo oId rogimo, rominisconl of lov
AIoxis do TocquoviIIo oxpIainod llo rools of llo Ironcl RovoIulion.
llis claplor, I lloroforo discuss llo naluro of llo oId rogimo, oulIining
in llo firsl soclion llo claraclorislics of llo Ukrainian oIigarcly. In llo
socond soclion I slov lov llo roIalionslip bolvoon llo prosidonl and
llo oIigarcls ovoIvod ovor limo, and in llo llird soclion I sum up llo
main oIigarclic groups boforo llo Orango RovoIulion. In llo fourll soc-
lion I anaIyzo lov llo oIigarclic groups ongagod in poIilics. IinaIIy, in
I am gralofuI lo Roman Ginzburg and Malllov Gibson, vlo providod mo vill rosoarcl
assislanco, and lo llo parlicipanls of llo book vorkslop in Kyiv on Marcl 10, 2005, vlo
offorod a varioly of commonls. IspociaIIy, I vanl lo llank MiclaoI McIauI, OIona IryluIa,
and Taras Kuzio for lloir subslanliaI and loIpfuI commonls.
10 anders åslund
llo concIuding soclion, I Iay oul llo slrucluro inloronl in llo oId rogimo
llal mado llo domiso of llo oIigarcly possibIo.
Characteristics nI the Ukrainian OIigarchy
Tlo oIigarclic groups in Ukraino voro formod aflor llo ond of commu-
nism, llougl sovoraI Ioading figuros lad boon youll communisl
(Kcmscmc|) officiaIs or slalo onlorpriso managors. Tlo oIigarclic groups
slarlod lo omorgo in 1992. Tlo groups, lloir praclicos, lloir businossos,
and lloir inloraclions lavo clangod quickIy. Many oarIy slars lavo dis-
appoarod. Somo lavo boon murdorod, vliIo ollors lavo omigralod.
Tlo vord c|ig.rc| oxprossos a popuIar concopl. Ukraino´s oIigarcls
omorgod in paraIIoI lo Russia´s, vlo lavo boon moro cIosoIy sludiod,
and lloy voro quilo simiIar.
Tlo popuIar moaning of c|ig.rc| is a poIili-
caIIy voII-connoclod lycoon, a doIIar biIIionairo, or noar biIIionairo, vlo
is llo main ovnor of a congIomoralo and las inlimalo lios vill llo prosi-
donl. In lradilionaI parIanco, an c|ig.rc|µ impIios llo ruIo of a Iimilod
group of poopIo, bul llal concopl of oIigarcly las raroIy boon usod in
Ukraino. Ono roason is llal so mucl povor roslod vill llo prosidonl,
and anollor is llal llo syslom vas roasonabIy opon and compolilivo.
}ooI HoIIman las coinod llo plraso si.ic c.piurc lo claraclorizo llo roIa-
lionslip bolvoon big businossmon and llo slalo in a counlry sucl as
Ukraino bocauso llo big businossmon lavo infIuoncod llo slalo by aII
possibIo moans.
In llo 1990s, Ukrainian oIigarcls focusod on and mado mosl of lloir
monoy in commodily lrading. Ono Ioading oIigarcl, Ilor Bakai, slalod
in a famous inlorviov in 1998 llal ¨aII roaIIy ricl poopIo in Ukraino
lavo mado lloir monoy on gas.¨
Ollor sourcos of rovonuo voro subsi-
dizod slalo crodils, slooI oxporls, llo oiI lrado, coaI subsidios, and agri-
cuIluraI and clomicaI oxporls. Iucralivo commodily lrading invoIvod
sovoraI oIomonls of fraud and rcni scc|ing, or skimming. Iirsl, oIigarcls
bougll gas al Iov slalo-conlroIIod pricos and soId llom for ligl markol
pricos. Socond, llo slalo usuaIIy avardod llom a monopoIy, and lypi-
caIIy a rogionaI monopoIy, for gas saIos. Tlird, oIigarcls oflon rofrainod
from paying for lloir purclasos, somolimos passing llo biII on lo llo
slalo, as vas nolabIy dono vill mucl of lloir gas biIIs lo Russia. Iourll,
ovon vlon oIigarcls did pay, lloy oxlraclod subslanliaI discounls in
barlor doaIs, lypicaIIy roducing lloir lax biIIs vill doIivorios in kind.
Iifll, llo govornmonl financod llo oIigarcls vill subsidizod Ioans and
ollor subsidios. Sixll, llo oIigarcls gol avay vill nol paying laxos,
the anci en régi me 11
llanks lo IogaI oxomplions, offsols granling llom subslanliaI discounls,
or simpIy nonpaymonl.
Tlo Ukrainian gas lrado vas a pocuIiar businoss. Iacl yoar, a land-
fuI of Ukrainian businossmon voro givon rogionaI lrado monopoIios,
and oacl mado lundrods of miIIions of doIIars llrougl smaII lrading
companios. Tlo pIayors londod lo clango from yoar lo yoar doponding
on lloir slanding vill llo prosidonl. Sinco lloy mado lloir forlunos on
commodily arbilrago, lloso businossmon ignorod boll llo ovnorslip
of big companios and produclion. Il vas nol surprising llal Ukraino´s
oulpul foII conlinuousIy llrougloul llo 1990s.
Sinco llo gas monopoIios londod lo bo rogionaI, llo oIigarclic groups
assumod a rogionaI claraclor. As so mucl lingod on a singIo gas con-
lracl villoul any rocourso lo Iav, lop-IovoI vioIonco mounlod in llo
mid-1990s. Tlo gas oIigarcls lad armios of up lo 150 bodyguards
around llom, and lvo lop businossmon from Donolsk (Alali Bragin,
aIso knovn as AIik Grok, and Yovlon Slclorban) voro murdorod in
1995 and 1996, rospoclivoIy, prosumabIy by lloir compolilors, llougl
llo casos voro novor soIvod. AIllougl llo llroal of vioIonco romainod,
llo vioIonco among llo oIigarcls graduaIIy dvindIod, as did lloir num-
bor of bodyguards.
The EvnIving ReIatinnship between the President and the OIigarchs
Tlo roIalionslip bolvoon llo prosidonl and Ukrainian big businossmon
clangod amazingIy fasl, claIIonging faciIo gonoraIizalions. As discussod
boIov, llis roIalionslip clangod virluaIIy ovory yoar.
Tlo firsl yoar of indopondonco undor Irosidonl Ioonid Kravcluk
brougll IillIo bul claos. Ioonid Kuclma mado lis poIilicaI mark as primo
minislor in 1992÷1993, slanding oul as a roprosonlalivo of lvo conslilu-
oncios÷llo Dnipropolrovsk rogion and slalo onlorpriso managors÷bul
no roaI syslom of povor dovoIopod.
Irimo Minislor Kuclma vas ropIacod by llo onorgolic Yuklum
ZvialiIskiy, anollor slalo onlorpriso managor, bul lo roprosonlod llo
coaI induslry and llo Donolsk rogion. ZvialiIskiy brougll vill lim a
group of slalo onlorpriso managors from Donolsk vlo joinod llo gov-
ornmonl lo mako monoy on subsidizod slalo crodils, slalo subsidios, and
priviIogod arbilrago bolvoon fixod slalo pricos and froo-markol pricos.
Tlo coaI induslry firmIy oslabIislod ilsoIf as a ronl-sooking maclino,
Iiving on subsidios. ZvialiIskiy limsoIf vas Ialor prosoculod for laving
sloIon slalo gasoIino vorll $25 miIIion. Ho simpIy soId llo gas and
12 anders åslund
roquoslod paymonl inlo lis porsonaI bank accounl abroad. Irosidonl
Ioonid Kravcluk doos nol appoar lo lavo boon invoIvod in lloso macli-
In }uIy 1994, Ioonid Kuclma vas unoxpoclodIy oIoclod llo prosidonl
of Ukraino. During lis firsl yoar in povor, lo disruplod llo oId corrupl
nolvorks. IarIy oIigarcls sucl as ZvialiIskiy, modia oIigarcl Vadim
Rabinovicl, and gas lrador Ilor Bakai voro oul of favor, and llo firsl
lvo voro ovon prosoculod. Tlo prosidonl pursuod onorgolic markol ro-
forms for a yoar, aflor vlicl, lovovor, llo oId oIigarcls managod lo
mond lloir foncos vill llo nov prosidonl. Tlo Kuclma rogimo lad bo-
como corrupl.
In 1995, llo dominanl oIigarcl in Dnipropolrovsk vas ils govornor,
IavIo Iazaronko. His cIososl businoss parlnor vas YuIia Tymoslonko,
vlo loadod lloir privalo company, llo Unifiod Inorgy Syslom of
Ukraino, vlicl lradod primariIy in gas. Iazaronko bocamo llo primo
minislor in llo summor of 1996, posing a soomingIy sorious oIigarclic
claIIongo lo Irosidonl Kuclma. UnliI Iazaronko vas ouslod ono yoar
Ialor, lo appoarod lo bo moro povorfuI llan Kuclma. Iazaronko slood
oul as llo mosl corrupl Ukrainian poIilician lo dalo, making monoy on
llo manipuIalion of llo gas markol, agricuIluraI procuromonl, and
privalizalion. Ivon llo Ukrainian oslabIislmonl vas slunnod by lis
grood, vlicl conlribulod lo lis ouslor. Tlo saying vonl llal Iazaronko
Iosl oul bocauso lo did nol slaro vill anybody.
An imporlanl conso-
quonco of Iazaronko´s ruIo vas llo formalion of a poIilicaI parly,
Hrcm.!.. ArguabIy, llis parly vas llo firsl puroIy oIigarclic parly and
ono in opposilion lo llo prosidonl. Ono of llo mosl prominonl mombors
of Hromada, YuIia Tymoslonko, Iofl llo parly aflor Iazaronko fIod
abroad in Iobruary 1999. Slo foundod lor ovn parly, B.i|its|c|µn. (Ia-
llorIand), in opposilion lo Kuclma.
Iazaronko musl lavo slockod Kuclma, and Kuclma appoars lo lavo
docidod novor lo pul limsoIf in sucl a lrap again. Sinco Iazaronko lad
boon llo Ioador of Kuclma´s rogionaI baso, Dnipropolrovsk, Kuclma
couId no Iongor lrusl llo rogion fuIIy. His firsl Iosson vas llal lo noodod
a voak bul compIoloIy IoyaI primo minislor, vlicl Iod lim lo clooso
llo unfaiIingIy obodionl VaIory Iuslovoilonko. Anollor Iosson vas llal
Kuclma noodod lo oxpIoil lis MacliavoIIian laIonls moro fuIIy lo pIay
llo oIigarcls againsl ono anollor.
Soon, llo prosidonliaI oIoclions in Oclobor÷Novombor 1999 bocamo
llo dominanl poIilicaI issuo, bul Kuclma, vlo lad prosidod ovor a
sloady oconomic docIino, vas nol vory popuIar. Ho look lis cuo from
the anci en régi me 13
Russian prosidonl Boris YoIlsin and llo Russian prosidonliaI oIoclions
of 1996. In ApriI 1998, during llo approacl lo llo oIoclion, a formor
clair of llo NalionaI Bank, Vadim Holman, foII viclim lo a conlracl
murdor in Kyiv. Tlo caso vas novor soIvod. Holman lad boon
Yuslclonko´s confidanl and polonliaI campaign Ioador. Aflor llo mur-
dor, Yuslclonko, vlo lad conlompIalod running in llo 1999 oIoclions,
docidod againsl il. Manouvoring lo oIiminalo ollor conlrisl candidalos,
Kuclma rondorod llo oIoclion a slark cloico bolvoon lim and llo lrog-
Iodylo Communisl Ioador Iolro Symononko. Iiko YoIlsin, Kuclma ro-
Iiod upon a landfuI of oIigarcls for massivo financing and modia sup-
porl (mainIy Viklor Modvodcluk, Ilor Bakai, and Viklor Iincluk).
Symononko forcod Kuclma lo a run-off, bul Kuclma von vill a roas-
suring majorily of 56.3 porconl of llo volos casl.
Ivon so, Kuclma´s
povor romainod conslrainod. Togollor vill lloir aIIios, llo commu-
nisls loId aboul 40 porconl of llo soals in parIiamonl. A coupIo of llo
many oIigarclic parly faclions londod lo volo vill llo communisls, pro-
viding llom vill a majorily. Tlo communisls roguIarIy volod for subsi-
dios and roguIalion, vlicl aIvays bonofilod somo oIigarcls. As a ro-
suIl, a slaIomalo porsislod bolvoon llo prosidonl and llo parIiamonl,
and minimum IogisIalion vas onaclod.
By llo ond of 1999, llo mood in Ukraino vas moro possimislic llan
ovor. Tlo counlry soomod sluck in a morass of corrupl slalo monopoIy
lrading. Kuclma and llo oIigarcls did nol appoar concornod aboul llo
sloady docIino in llo gross domoslic producl (GDI), bul lloy voro lruIy
vorriod aboul Ukraino approacling oxlornaI dofauIl bocauso lloy lad
soon lov lloir Russian brollron lad Iosl lloir forlunos and povor in
Russia´s financiaI crasl in Augusl 1998. Tloy docidod llal Ukraino´s
crodilvorllinoss lad lo bo roslorod. Ono of llo Ioading oIigarcls and
parIiamonlarians, Viklor Modvodcluk, assombIod lon conlrisl and rigll-
isl parly faclions lo form a govornmonl llal couId savo Ukraino from
dofauIl. Tlo onIy crodibIo sonior oconomic poIilician lo bo found vas
Viklor Yuslclonko, vlo lad skiIIfuIIy run Ukraino´s conlraI bank for
sovon yoars. Ho vas vidoIy crodilod vill llo counlry´s macrooconomic
slabiIizalion and llo succossfuI inlroduclion of Ukraino´s nalionaI cur-
roncy in 1996.
Modvodcluk managod lo lavo Yuslclonko approvod as primo min-
islor by parIiamonl. Yuslclonko´s mosl nolabIo appoinlmonl vas of
formor gas lrador YuIia Tymoslonko as llo dopuly primo minislor for
onorgy. In llo Ialo 1990s slo lad succossfuIIy lransformod lorsoIf from
an oIigarcl lo a poIilician, opposing llo romaining oIigarcls, llougl
14 anders åslund
vidosproad suspicion conslrainod popuIar supporl for lor. Ior llo rosl,
llo govornmonl romainod dominalod by civiI sorvanls. Yuslclonko did
oxaclIy vlal vas roquirod of lim. In llo courso of llo firsl four monlls
of 2000, lo roslorod Ukraino´s crodilvorllinoss, bul lo did so vill a
vongoanco diroclod againsl llo oIigarcls. ImmodialoIy, lo onaclod a Iav
llal aboIislod 270 IogisIalivo acls invoIving subsidios and lax or roguIa-
lion priviIogos for concrolo businossos. Ho sviflIy uproolod barlor and
offsols by domanding casl-onIy paymonls lo llo slalo. In llo onorgy
sploro, llo gas lrado vill Russia vas roformod, and llo oIigarcls voro
forcod lo pay for llo doIivorios lloy rocoivod. A Iargo numbor of big
companios voro privalizod. Many voro soId lo Russian businossmon,
vlo voro proparod lo pay moro llan llo Ukrainian oIigarcls voro.
Moroovor, a Iand roform broko up llo oId coIIoclivo and slalo farms,
giving llo Iand lo llo poasanls.
By raising slalo rovonuos, Yuslclonko lurnod a budgol doficil in 1999
lo a surpIus in 2000 and roducod llo slalo´s foroign dobl. To an amazing
dogroo, llo pIaying fioId lad boon IovoIod. As a consoquonco, llo Ukrai-
nian oconomy lurnod around. Ior llo firsl limo, indopondonl Ukraino
rocordod oconomic grovll of no Ioss llan 5.8 porconl in 2000.
By May
2000, llo oIigarcls undorslood llal Yuslclonko lad savod llom and
llal lloy no Iongor noodod lo accopl llo lardslip lo lad imposod upon
llom. Bocauso of poIilicaI vagarios, lovovor, lloy faiIod lo sack lim
unliI ApriI 2001, vlicl vas loo Ialo for llo oIigarcls. Tlo cIock couId
nol bo lurnod back. Ukraino lad clangod for good, and llo oId oIigar-
clic syslom, dominalod by ronl sooking, couId nol bo roslorod. Tlo gas
lrado vas no Iongor a bonanza, and sovoraI major onorgy lradors van-
islod. Insload, llo ovnors of slooI miIIs bocamo llo riclosl and mosl
povorfuI oIigarcls. Tlo oIigarcls lad boon lransformod from ronl sook-
ors lo producors.
IconomicaIIy, llo yoar 2000 markod a dofinilo broak vill llo oId
parasilicaI ronl-sooking maclino. Al Iong Iasl, a roasonabIy froo markol
oconomy, vill prodominanlIy privalo ovnorslip, lad boon oslabIislod.
As a consoquonco, llo dopondonco of businossmon on llo slalo dimin-
islod, aIIoving llom lo acl indopondonlIy. Aflor lloir ouslor in oarIy
2001, Yuslclonko and Tymoslonko slood oul as slrong poIilicaI Ioad-
ors in opposilion lo llo oIigarcls. UnliI llon, many lad vondorod
vlollor llo lvo voro fisl or fovI.
In Novombor 2000, sociaIisl Ioador OIoksandr Moroz rovoaIod llal
audiolapos oxislod llal lad boon mado by Kuclma´s bodyguard, MykoIa
MoInyclonko. Tloso lapos suggoslod llal llo prosidonl lad givon lis
the anci en régi me 15
consonl lo llo murdor of a muckraking journaIisl, Hoorliy Gongadzo.
Kuclma´s popuIarily pIummolod lo singIo digils, novor lo rocovor. A
broad opposilion movomonl, ¨Ukraino villoul Kuclma,¨ vas formod
llal organizod proIongod slrool prolosls, vlicl conlinuod for sovoraI
monlls. Tlo aclion camo lo a suddon ond on Marcl 9, 2001, vlon a
domonslralion in Kyiv lurnod vioIonl. SovoraI young nalionaIisls voro
arroslod and sonl lo jaiI, vliIo llo opposilion cIaimod llal llo domon-
slralion vas a govornmonl provocalion. Tlo oulbroak of vioIonco
slockod llo opposilion, bringing ils prolosl aclions lo an ond, bul
Kuclma´s cIaim lo Iogilimacy vas no Iongor crodibIo.
Boginning in 2001, Kuclma lad lo roIy aII llo moro on lis skiIIs as a
conspiralor, pIaying povorfuI figuros againsl ono anollor villoul aIion-
aling llom. Ho bocamo a godfallor, llo uIlimalo arbilor in a vorId vill-
oul formaI Iavs, providing llo Iasl rocourso for compIainls againsl arbi-
lrary govornmonl aclions.
Tlo moro arbilrary llo appIicalion of Iav
vas, llo groalor llo povor of llo arbilor bocamo. Kuclma rospondod lo
lis oxporionco vill llo combalivo roformisl Yuslclonko govornmonl
by appoinling a noulraI govornmonl of civiI sorvanls undor AnaloIiy
Kinakl, llo clair of llo Iarly of InduslriaIisls and Inlropronours and a
doconl loclnocral. SliII, llo Yuslclonko roforms voro nol rovorsod.
Tlo noxl big poIilicaI ovonl vas llo parIiamonlary oIoclions in Marcl
2002. Aflor laving boon ouslod as primo minislor, Yuslclonko assombIod
a broad coaIilion in an oIocloraI bIoc of IiboraI, nalionaIisl, and rigllisl
parlios running againsl Kuclma and lis oIigarclic rogimo. In llo pro-
porlionaI baIIoling parl of llo oIoclion,
lis Our Ukraino parly oblainod
24 porconl of llo volos casl. A numbor of big businossmon (mini-
oIigarcls) vlo lad mado lloir monoy on cooporalion vill llo oId ro-
gimo nov clangod sidos and joinod Yuslclonko. YuIia Tymoslonko
ran vill lor ovn bIoc, supposodIy bocauso lloir oIocloralos voro dis-
paralo and did nol Iiko ono anollor. Tlo opposilion, comprising Our
Ukraino, llo YuIia Tymoslonko bIoc, llo SociaIisl Iarly, and llo Com-
munisl Iarly, iniliaIIy lad a majorily in parIiamonl, bul il faiIod lo acl
fasl onougl lo soizo povor. Bosidos, Our Ukraino and llo communisls
slood far aparl. Will bribory and llroals of oconomic roprossion, llo
rogimo soon broko llo opposilion´s majorily. In facl, llo nov parIia-
monl vas moro oIigarclic llan ovor. HaIf of parIiamonl comprisod Iooso
oIigarclic faclions. Ivon so, llo spoII of llo oIigarcls vas brokon. Iv-
oryono vas jusl vailing for llo prosidonliaI oIoclions in Oclobor 2004,
vlicl voro prosonlod as a slovdovn bolvoon Yuslclonko and an as-
yol-unknovn oIigarclic candidalo.
16 anders åslund
In Novombor 2002, Kuclma sackod Kinakl´s govornmonl for passiv-
ily and appoinlod for llo firsl limo a coaIilion govornmonl of poIilicians
from llo nino oIigarclic faclions in parIiamonl. AIso for llo firsl limo,
llo govornmonl vas dominalod by oIigarcls. Tlo cloico of a primo
minislor, Viklor Yanukovycl, vas obviousIy a cloico for llo prosidon-
liaI candidalo. Yanukovycl roprosonlod llo slrongosl oIigarclic cIan,
Donolsk, and lo vas soon as Rinal Aklmolov´s foromosl poIilician. AI-
llougl lo lad boon conviclod for vioIonl crimos lvico in lis youll, lo
appoarod lo bo llo onIy oIigarclic candidalo vlo couId muslor moro
llan a 6 lo 7 porconl popuIarily raling, and il conlinuod lo riso.
Modvodcluk lad Iong givon up lis lopo of bocoming prosidonl sinco
lo couId gain no popuIar supporl. Tlo main poIilician from
Dnipropolrovsk, Sorliy Tylipko, lad a voakor poIilicaI baso llan
Yanukovycl. Tylipko lriod lo Iauncl lis prosidonliaI bid by bocoming
llo clair of llo NalionaI Bank of Ukraino bul faiIod lo riso in llo opin-
ion poIIs, Ioaving Yanukovycl as llo onIy pIausibIo candidalo from llo
oIigarclic camp.
IronicaIIy, jusl boforo ils domiso, llo oIigarclic rogimo vas slrongor in
lorms of formaI povors llan il lad ovor boon. Il dominalod llo parIia-
monl, conlroIIod llo govornmonl, incIuding Iav onforcomonl, and ruIod
llo modia. Yol llo oIigarcls voro by no moans unilod, and llal vouId
causo lloir dovnfaII. Tlo Iasl lvo yoars of llo oId rogimo voro claraclor-
izod by llo oIigarcls´ franlic dosiro lo soizo as many assols as possibIo
vliIo llo going vas good. Ivon so, llo oconomy boomod as novor boforo.
A IillIo-nolicod aspocl of Ukrainian poIilics is llal roIalionslips among
llo povor oIilo lavo clangod amazingIy fasl sinco indopondonco, Ioav-
ing ovoryono uncorlain. Al ono limo, opporlunislic bolavior and com-
pIolo fIoxibiIily lad boon llo koys lo succoss. Tlo oIigarcls gol usod lo
oxpIoiling llo uncorlainly of proporly riglls lo oxlond lloir ovn prop-
orlios and lo onsuring lloir ovn proporly riglls by invosling in poIilics.
Iarl of llo oxpIanalion of lov llo miglly oIigarclic syslom couId
faII so sviflIy Iios in llo roIalionslip bolvoon llo prosidonl and llo oIi-
garcls. Tlo formaI povors of llo prosidonl lad boon rallor Iimilod, bul
lo cIovorIy roinforcod lis povor by pIaying boll oIigarcls and govorn-
monlaI agoncios, ospociaIIy Iav onforcomonl, againsl ono anollor. Ho
did so incroasingIy, bul as lis viIinoss bocamo obvious, lis popuIarily
docIinod, prompling lim lo roIy moro upon aullorilarian moasuros. In
doing so, Kuclma oxcoodod lis formaI povors and rosorlod lo oId com-
munisl-slyIo loIoplono commands. As llo prosidonl porsislonlIy
the anci en régi me 17
vioIalod Iavs, corrupl praclicos bocamo provaIonl. AIllougl Kuclma
did nol caro mucl aboul llo Iav, lo insislod on lis prorogalivos. To
mako llo mosl of lis povors, lo mado suro lo appoar onliroIy unpro-
diclabIo, rondoring lis pubIic slalomonls aImosl sloclaslic. In llis vay,
Kuclma lriod lo incroaso llo insocurily of oIigarcls and officiaIs. Il vouId
bo inaccuralo lo doscribo Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma as dominalod by
llo oIigarcls, in spilo of lloir cIoso Iinks or llo oIigarcls´ boing far riclor
llan lo. Tloir roIalionslip vas rallor ono of symbiosis.
The Main OIigarchic Grnups
To undorsland llo oIigarcls, vo nood lo doscribo llo lop groups as lloy
voro on llo ovo of llo prosidonliaI oIoclions in 2004. Irimo Minislor
Viklor Yanukovycl vas offoclivoIy supporlod by llroo oIigarclic groups:
Rinal Aklmolov´s Syslom CapilaI Managomonl (SCM), in Donolsk,
Viklor Iincluk´s Inlorpipo, in Dnipropolrovsk, and llo Kyiv-basod group
of Hriloriy Surkis and Viklor Modvodcluk, vlicl is usuaIIy nol idonli-
fiod vill any spocific onlorpriso or loIding company.
Syslom CapilaI Managomonl is by far Ukraino´s biggosl company,
vill aboul 160,000 ompIoyoos. Il is a loIding company aImosl com-
pIoloIy ovnod by Rinal Aklmolov, conlroIIing a congIomoralo. Il is a
vorlicaIIy inlogralod company, mainIy producing slooI, bul oxpanding
upslroam inlo coaI and iron-oro mining. Il ovns somo maclino-
buiIding pIanls, primariIy lo sorvico ils slooI produclion and mining in-
duslrios. Syslom CapilaI Managomonl aIso ovns a brovory and rogionaI
modia. Aklmolov ruIos as llo king of Donolsk vill conlroI ovor llo
rogionaI adminislralion, vlicl vas run by Viklor Yanukovycl unliI No-
vombor 2002.
Viklor Iincluk´s Inlorpipo migll bo llo socond voaIlliosl company
in Ukraino, bul ils numbor of ompIoyoos is mucl smaIIor. Il is basod in
Dnipropolrovsk and spociaIizos in llo produclion of slooI pipos and raiI-
vay vlooIs, llal is, of ligl vaIuo-addod slooI producls. Bosidos slooI,
Iincluk ovns llroo modium-sizo loIovision clannoIs (ICTV, Nctµ K.n.|,
and STB) and Ukrsolsbank.
Iincluk is marriod lo Kuclma´s onIy
Boll SCM and Inlorpipo appoar lo bo normaI corporalo slrucluros,
vliIo llo llird oIigarclic group, llo Surkis-Modvodcluk group, Iacks
any conlraI company or lransparoncy. Il is somolimos caIIod llo Dy-
namo group, aflor llo famous soccor cIub in Kyiv conlroIIod by Surkis,
18 anders åslund
and somolimos llo Kyiv group, aflor ils soal. Many of lloir companios
aro ovnod by ollors, nolabIy llo slalo, bul aIso by parlnors, and group
ovnorslip is concoaIod in offsloro companios. Tlo group conlroIs nino
rogionaI oIoclricily dislribulion companios, subslanliaI roaI oslalo in Kyiv,
forosls in Transcarpallia, and offoclivoIy llo llroo biggosl loIovision
clannoIs: Inlor, 1+1, and llo slalo-ovnod Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI (UT÷
1). Modvodcluk las boon a fuII-limo poIilician for many yoars. Ho vas
llo firsl dopuly spoakor of parIiamonl, and in 2002÷2004, lo vas llo
load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion, vlicl raisod quorios ovor
vlollor govornmonl vas lis main businoss. Modvodcluk conlroIIod a
Iargo numbor of govornmonlaI appoinlmonls, nolabIy in llo Minislry of
llo Inlorior and in rogionaI adminislralions.
Aflor lloso llroo major groups, sovoraI Iargo and voII-connoclod
groups foIIov llal appoar lo lavo mainlainod poIilicaI noulraIily. Irival
Group, in Dnipropolrovsk, migll bo llo biggosl. Il is loadod by llroo
parlnors: Ilor KoIomoyskiy, Gonnady BogoIiubov, and AIoxoi Marlynov.
Irival Group conlroIs a Iargo bank (Irivalbank), a vorlicaIIy inlogralod
oiI company (Sinloza and somi-slalo-ovnod Ukrnafla), a vorlicaIIy inlo-
gralod mining-and-slooI company, and Iargo oIoclricily loIdings. Iiko
llo Surkis-Modvodcluk group, Irival Group doos nol lavo cIoar corpo-
ralo slrucluros, and mucl of ils ovnorslip is liddon in offsloro compa-
nios, parlIy lo oscapo anlimonopoIy moasuros. OfficiaIIy, Irival Group
koops a Iov profiIo. Il compolod vill, and Iosl lo, Inlorpipo in a ligl-
profiIo 2003 privalizalion movo in llo Dnipropolrovsk rogion for llo
NikopoI IorroaIIoy IIanl. CommorciaIIy, il is cIoso lo llo Surkis-
Modvodcluk group, vill vlicl il slaros numorous oIoclric companios,
bul il aIso las a major joinl vonluro vill SCM: Ukrrudprom, a Iargo
iron oro mino.
Tlo lradilionaIIy proominonl group in Donolsk vas llo InduslriaI
Union of Donbas (ISD). UnIiko aII llo ollor groups, ils main ovnors,
VilaIy Haiduk and Sorliy Tarula, aro formor slalo onlorpriso managors
from llo molaIIurgicaI induslry. Tlis Iargo congIomoralo las ninoly llou-
sand ompIoyoos and is focusod on slooIvorks, llougl il las many ollor
onlorprisos as voII. UnIiko SCM and Irival, vlicl lavo oplod for vorli-
caI inlogralion upslroam, ISD las closon dovnslroam vorlicaI inlogra-
lion, invosling oxlonsivoIy in slooIvorks in ConlraI Iuropo. IroviousIy,
SCM and ISD slarod llo ovnorslip of many slooIvorks, bul lloy lavo
incroasingIy dividod lloir proporlios. Sinco SCM rocoivod mosl of llom,
ISD appoarod lo bo squoozod oul. Il sliII slaros llo ovnorslip of somo
maclino-buiIding pIanls.
the anci en régi me 19
Ollor Iargo onlorpriso groups in Ukraino aro AIoxandor YarosIavsky´s
Ukrsibbank in Klarkiv and llo ZaporozlslaI group ovnod by llroo
young mon in Zaporizlzlia. Ukrsibbank is a mixod congIomoralo and
privalo invoslmonl group, vliIo ZaporozlslaI is primariIy a molaIIur-
gicaI company. SlrikingIy, al Ioasl six of Ukraino´s biggosl onlorpriso
groups aro molaIIurgicaI companios, and, nol surprisingIy, aro Iocalod
in llo oasl of llo counlry. IoIilicaIIy, onIy llo firsl llroo groups÷SCM,
Inlorpipo, and llo Surkis-Modvodcluk Group÷roaIIy supporlod
Yanukovycl oponIy, vliIo llo ollors voro moro or Ioss noulraI. Tlo
ovorvloIming majorily of Ukrainian businossmon supporlod
Yuslclonko againsl llo major oIigarcls.
An imporlanl dovoIopmonl in llo Marcl 2002 oIoclions vas llal sov-
oraI big businossmon joinod llo opposilion. In parlicuIar, Iolro
Ioroslonko (Ukraino´s clocoIalo king, vill llo company Roslon, vlo
aIso las inlorosls in agricuIluro and llo Ioninska Kuznia slipyard),
David Zlvanya and MykoIa Marlynonko (focusod on slalo-ovnod
Alomonorgo), and Yovlon Clorvononko (a major lruckor from Iviv)
voro oIoclod lo Our Ukraino. Tloy slayod vill Yuslclonko dospilo ox-
lonsivo larassmonl from aullorilios, sucl as lax audils, innumorabIo
inspoclions, and ropoalod arrosls of lloir oxoculivos. Il soomod lloy
llougll a Yuslclonko viclory vouId provido llom vill sufficionl fi-
nanciaI payback, aIllougl Ioroslonko aIIogod llal lis opposilion cosl
lim no Ioss llan lvo-llirds of lis voaIll ovor four yoars.
Yol lloy
loId oul and ovonluaIIy von vill Yuslclonko, and lloy romain con-
spicuousIy voaIlly.
Big Ukrainian businoss vonl llrougl a groal lransformalion in llo
oarIy 2000s llal lad poIilicaI consoquoncos. Iirsl, onlorprisos voro in-
croasingIy privalizod, vlicl gavo llo businossmon an inlorosl in ac-
quiring companios and dofonding lloir proporlios rallor llan silling on
slalo onlorprisos and parasilicaIIy lapping lloir casl fIovs vliIo oxlracl-
ing slalo subsidios, as vas llo caso in llo 1990s. Tloroforo, lloy slarlod
caring aboul produclion and invoslmonl.
Socond, big businossmon lavo progrossivoIy soparalod and consoIi-
dalod lloir loIdings. Ukrainian corporalo IogisIalion is so rudimonlary
llal a parlnor or minorily slaroloIdor las minimaI IogaI riglls. Sinco
llo courls vork poorIy, mosl onlorprisos opl for far-roacling vorlicaI
inlogralion lo roduco lloir dopondonco on subconlraclors. As a conso-
quonco, Ukrainian onlorpriso ovnorslip appoars lo bo moro concon-
lralod and consoIidalod llan in Russia. Mosl of llo fivo biggosl groups
nonolloIoss lavo somo major proporlios in common.
20 anders åslund
Tlird, sinco big businossmon soparalod lloir proporlios from ono
anollor, lloy lavo bocomo compolilors. Il is common lo spoak of llo
Donolsk and Dnipropolrovsk groups, bul llo lvo biggosl onlorprisos in
Dnipropolrovsk÷Inlorpipo and Irival Group÷compolo forociousIy, as
do SCM and ISD, llo lvo biggosl corporalions in Donolsk, llougl SCM
is by far llo moro povorfuI of llo lvo. Boll in Dnipropolrovsk and
Donolsk, Iargo molaIIurgicaI companios of rouglIy oquaI sizo sland
againsl ono anollor, ovidoncing llal Ukraino vas by no moans monopo-
Iizod by llo lop oIigarcls. In llo 1990s, by conlrasl, big Ukrainian busi-
nossmon voro so inlordopondonl llal lloy lad lo bo liglIy socrolivo
and oxlromoIy carofuI nol lo crilicizo ono anollor.
Iourll, as ronl sooking fadod, businossmon bocamo moro indopon-
donl from llo slalo, parlicuIarIy aflor llo groal IiboraIizalion of 2000.
Tloy lad lo focus on produclion insload.
Iifll, groalor muluaI indopondonco and compolilion among llo big
businossmon inlonsifiod lloir compolilion ovor proporly riglls, vlicl
conlribulod lo oxlraordinary poIilicaI campaign financing. According
lo llo Yuslclonko campaign, as oarIy as }uIy 2004 llo Yanukovycl
campaign lad pIannod financing of $600 miIIion, laIf of vlicl vas lo
como from Russian onlorprisos and laIf from Ukrainian oIigarcls, pri-
mariIy from Rinal Aklmolov.
Ialor, somo ovon laIkod aboul lolaI
campaign funding of $900 miIIion. David Zlvanya, llo cliof fund-
raisor for llo Yuslclonko campaign, las slalod llal lis prosidonliaI
campaign and llo prolosls lloy organizod cosl moro llan $150 miI-
Iion, vlicl vas providod by Ukrainian businossmon.
Tlis moans llal
llo Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclions cosl moro llan 1 porconl of llo
GDI, or moro llan ono lundrod limos as mucl as llo simuIlanoous
U.S. prosidonliaI oIoclions in roIalion lo llo GDI.
Ono of llo ovnors
of Irival Group, BogoIiubov, arguod llal domocracy in Ukraino couId
bo formod onIy aflor privalizalion lad boon compIolod. UnliI llon,
Ukrainian poIilics vouId bo dominalod by businossmon drivon by lloir
aspiralion lo grab slalo assols.
Sixll, aII lloso dovoIopmonls lavo conlribulod lo mucl groalor opon-
noss and lransparoncy. UnliI 2000 il vas oxcoodingIy difficuIl lo figuro
oul vlo ovnod vlal. Ovnorslip vas liddon in offsloro companios,
and llo big groups lad no cIoar corporalo slrucluros. Nov llo Ioading
companios lavo sol up loIding companios, cIarifiod lloir corporalo slruc-
luros, and aro pubIisling oxlonsivo organizalionaI clarls of llo biggosl
onlorpriso groups.
the anci en régi me 21
Hnw Ukrainian OIigarchs Engage in PnIitics
Anollor koy lo undorslanding llo Ukrainian oIigarcls is lo oxamino
vill vlicl slalo inslilulions lloy lavo inloraclod mosl inlonsoIy.
Tlo prosidonl and llo prosidonliaI adminislralion lavo boon conlraI
lo aII oIigarclic slruggIos. Sorious oIigarcls musl lavo accoss lo llo prosi-
donl, and many oIigarcls lavo sorvod as prosidonliaI advisors or in so-
nior posilions in llo prosidonliaI adminislralion. NolabIy, Modvodcluk
vas llo load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion during Kuclma´s Iasl lvo
yoars in povor. Tlo prosidonl las boon so imporlanl bocauso of lis con-
sidorabIo conslilulionaI povors and lis ovon groalor informaI povors.
Tlo socond slago for big businossmon las boon parIiamonl and nol
llo govornmonl. Tloir slaro of llo dopulios las oxpandod conlinuousIy,
llougl llo parIiamonlary oIoclions in Marcl 2002 migll lavo markod a
poak. OIigarclic parlios supporling Kuclma loId approximaloIy laIf
llo soals in parIiamonl in aboul nino parly faclions, bul llo ollor parlios
incIudod many big businossmon loo. Tlo Ukrainian parIiamonl is a miI-
Iionairos´ cIub (as llo U.S. Sonalo vas caIIod in llo 1880s). Il is com-
monIy said llal 300 of llo parIiamonl´s 450 dopulios aro doIIar miIIion-
In llo 2002 oIoclions, ¨safo¨ soals on parly Iisls voro soId for up
lo $3 miIIion.
IiloraIIy aII big businossmon in Ukraino, vill llo oxcop-
lion of Rinal Aklmolov and llo ovnors of Irival Group, aro mombors
of parIiamonl. Tlo poIilicaI slrongll of llo oIigarclic groups couId bo
judgod by lloir parIiamonlary numbors. By llo summor of 2004,
Aklmolov´s Donolsk faclion, llo ¨Rogions,¨ lad sixly-six mombors of
parIiamonl, and Iincluk´s Dnipropolrovsk Iabor Ukraino parly lad
somo forly mombors of parIiamonl, as did llo Surkis-Modvodcluk
¨(Unilod) SociaI Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino.¨ Tlo namos did nol ro-
fIocl lloir poIilicaI orionlalion, llougl sovoraI oIigarclic parlios usod
sociaI domocralic rloloric lo camoufIago lloir domand for slalo inlor-
vonlion in favor of lloir businoss inlorosls. Boll llo numbor of faclions
and lloir sizos variod sviflIy. SmaIIor oIigarclic groups lad faclions of
fifloon lo lvonly mombors of parIiamonl.
IvidonlIy, lop businossmon considorod momborslip in parIiamonl
vilaI lo lloir businoss inlorosls. Il gavo llom IogaI immunily, aIllougl
lloir managors voro oflon arroslod vlon llo principaIs misbolavod
poIilicaIIy. Tlo businossmon-parIiamonlarians aIso oxlraclod slalo bon-
ofils, sucl as lax oxomplions, subsidios, lrado barriors, and privalizalion
doaIs. Tloy oasiIy bIockod any undosirabIo IogisIalion. Momborslip in
22 anders åslund
parIiamonl aIso guaranlood llom ligl-IovoI govornmonlaI accoss. Ii-
naIIy, llo Ukrainian parIiamonl porformod many of llo funclions of a
slock oxclango, boing llo mooling pIaco and lrading fIoor of Ukraino´s
big businossmon.
Givon llo imporlanco of slalo Iargosso and slalo capluro, ono vouId
oxpocl llo govornmonl lo bo a major largol of oIigarclic inlrusion, bul
llal las IargoIy nol boon llo caso. Tlo main oxcoplions voro llo gov-
ornmonls of acling primo minislor Yuklum ZvialiIskiy in 1993÷1994
and of IavIo Iazaronko in 1996÷1997. Boll, lovovor, foII inlo disgraco
aflor lloir dismissaI and voro prosoculod for Iargo-scaIo misappropria-
lions. Sorliy Tylipko bocamo llo dopuly primo minislor of oconomy in
1997 vliIo ono of llo parlnors in Irival Group, bul lo soon divoslod lis
slaro in llal company. UnliI 2002 llo Ukrainian cabinol of minislors
vas dominalod by civiI sorvanls, vill onIy a sprinkIing of poIilicians
and lardIy any businossmon. OddIy, llo main oconomic bodios, llo
Minislry of Iinanco, llo Minislry of Iconomy, llo conlraI bank, and llo
Slalo Iroporly Iund, did nol louso any oIigarcls.
Ivorylling clangod in Novombor 2002 vill llo formalion of Viklor
Yanukovycl´s govornmonl, vlicl brougll lvo imporlanl novoIlios.
Iirsl, il vas a poIilicaI coaIilion roprosonling parly faclions loIding a
majorily in parIiamonl. Socond, lop figuros from llo oIigarclic groups
joinod llo govornmonl porsonaIIy. Tlo Donolsk group dominalod llo
govornmonl vill Irimo Minislor Viklor Yanukovycl (formorIy llo gov-
ornor of Donolsk obIasl), Iirsl Dopuly Irimo Minislor and Minislor of
Iinanco MykoIa Azarov (formorIy llo Ionglimo load of llo Slalo Tax
Adminislralion), and Dopuly Irimo Minislor for Inorgy Andriy KIiuov
(a big businossman from Donolsk). Iigll ollor oIigarclic groups lad
aIso boon roprosonlod in Kuclma´s Iasl govornmonl. Tlal govornmonl
of oIigarcls lad many slrong and forcofuI porsonaIilios, bul coordina-
lion vas noarIy impossibIo. By coming oul inlo llo opon, llo oIigarcls
oxposod llomsoIvos and bocamo rosponsibIo.
In a noarIy IavIoss counlry Iiko Ukraino, Iav onforcomonl bodios aro
imporlanl. Ior mucl of Kuclma´s roign, lloso onforcomonl bodios lad
boon dominalod by llroo poopIo: Minislor of llo Inlorior Yuriy
Kravclonko, Socurily Minislor Ioonid Dorkacl, and MykoIa Azarov,
llon llo load of llo Slalo Tax Adminislralion. AII llroo voro oflon con-
sidorod oIigarcls in lloir ovn rigll, and Kuclma pIayod llom againsl
ono anollor as lo manouvorod among llo oIigarcls. Kuclma sacrificod
boll Kravclonko and Dorkacl in llo aflormall of llo Gongadzo mur-
dor scandaI, and Azarov Iosl conlroI of llo lax sorvico lo Kravclonko
the anci en régi me 23
vlon lo joinod llo govornmonl in Novombor 2002. During llo Iasl lvo
yoars of llo oId rogimo, llo oIigarcls appoar lo lavo slrongllonod lloir
roIo in Iav onforcomonl. Modvodcluk pIayod an ospociaIIy prominonl
roIo in llo muIlipIo spociaI forcos of llo Minislry of llo Inlorior. Tlo
prosoculor gonoraI vas usuaIIy a parl of aII poIilicaI porsoculion. Yol
Iav onforcomonl lad novor boon consoIidalod undor unifiod conlraI con-
lroI as il vas in Irosidonl Iulin´s Russia. Iacl oIigarcl appoars lo lavo
lad somo parl of Iav onforcomonl vorking for lim, and parls of Iav
onforcomonl Ioakod informalion oxlonsivoIy lo llo opposilion. SlrangoIy,
llo Socurily Sorvico of Ukraino (SBU), llo formor KGB, vas porcoivod
as boing IillIo invoIvod in oIigarclic slrifo.
Tlo oIigarcls mainIy pIayod lloir gamo al llo nalionaI IovoI. Tlo
rogionaI govornors voro nol aII llal significanl in liglIy conlraIizod
Ukraino, as lloy voro nol oIoclod bul voro appoinlod by llo prosidonl.
A govornor vas lypicaIIy a sonior officiaI vlo lad sufforod a sorious
solback in Kyiv. Ior inslanco, aflor Yuriy Kravclonko vas sackod as llo
minislor of llo inlorior for sooming lo bo rosponsibIo for llo Gongadzo
murdor, lo sorvod briofIy as llo govornor of llo Klorson rogion boforo
bocoming llo load of llo Slalo Tax Adminislralion. AdmillodIy, in
Donolsk llo rogionaI govornor (Yanukovycl) vas IillIo bul a sorvanl of
Rinal Aklmolov, and lloir Rogions parly von oIoclions ovorvloIm-
ingIy. In Dnipropolrovsk llo govornor vas appoinlod by Irosidonl
Kuclma and froquonlIy ropIacod, and sovoraI govornors soomod indo-
pondonl from boll Inlorpipo and Irival Group, llougl Iabor Ukraino
loId llo rogion. AIllougl Kyiv vas llo soal of llo Surkis-Modvodcluk
group, Surkis lumiIialingIy faiIod lvico lo vin mayoraI oIoclions in Kyiv.
What Made the Demise nI the OIigarchy PnssibIe?
A crilicaI quoslion in llo conloxl of llis book is lo oxpIain lov llo do-
miso of llo oIigarcly vas possibIo. SovoraI parliaI roasons aro lo bo found
in llo naluro of llo oId rogimo. Tlo ovoraII oxpIanalion is llal pIuraIism
and compolilion lad incroasod boll among llo oIilo and in socioly. Wo
can sum up our obsorvalions in sovon gonoraI concIusions.
Iirsl, llo cliof foaluro of Ukraino´s oId rogimo vas llal Irosidonl
Kuclma pIayod ovorybody againsl ovorybody oIso in a dupIicilous fasl-
ion. His diIomma vas llal lis povor vas moro Iimilod llan lo dosirod,
and lo succossfuIIy oxlondod il by acling as an arbilor. As a consoquonco,
slalo povor vas nol consoIidalod, and boll oIigarcls and Iav onforco-
monl bodios valclod ono anollor. Tlis inlornaI division of llo rogimo
24 anders åslund
impIiod a corlain inslabiIily. Tlo oId oIilo vas loo dividod lo coIIudo
A socond, roIalod claraclorislic of Kuclma´s ruIo vas llal, vill llo
rapid slrucluraI modornizalion of llo oconomy, llo oIigarclic groups
bocamo incroasingIy aggrossivo in lloir compolilion. Irivalizalion pro-
molod nol onIy oconomic bul aIso poIilicaI pIuraIism. Ukrainian busi-
nossmon soparalod lloir loIdings from ono anollor and consoIidalod
lloir loIdings, vlicl bocamo incroasingIy lransparonl. Will doroguIa-
lion, businossmon oxlondod lloir oconomic froodom from llo slalo. In
slorl, privalizalion and markol roform mado businossmon moro socuro,
vlicl omboIdonod llom lo prolosl.
A llird foaluro of llo rogimo vas llal ovon ils cIososl supporlors voro
moro focusod on figlling ono anollor llan llo opposilion. Yanukovycl
vas llo candidalo of llo Donolsk cIan rallor llan of llo vloIo Kuclma
rogimo. Iincluk mado no socrol of lis Iov rogard for Yanukovycl, and
lis llroo loIovision clannoIs appoarod lo bo aImosl noulraI unliI
Yuslclonko slarlod campaigning for llo roprivalizalion of
KryvorizlslaI, llo slooIvorks llal Iincluk and Aklmolov lad bougll
logollor in a svoolloarl doaI. Modvodcluk appoarod so focusod on on-
lancing lis infIuonco ovor Iav onforcomonl llal suspicion aroso llal lo
vas proparing lo lako ovor by forco. Anollor suspicion vas llal Kuclma
vanlod lo lavo llo prosidonliaI oIoclions docIarod nuII and void lo slay
in povor a bil Iongor. Tlo Ioadors of llo oId rogimo voro aII prooccu-
piod vill ono anollor and lad IillIo limo for llo opposilion. Tlo oppo-
silion, on llo conlrary, vas convincod llal il vas nov or novor.
A fourll laIImark of llo oId Ukrainian rogimo vas llal various
branclos of Iav onforcomonl voro combaling ono anollor as voII. Ro-
poalod Ioaks of imporlanl socrol informalion voro ono indicalion.
somoono lad a probIom vill ono brancl of Iav onforcomonl, lo or slo
couId lurn lo anollor brancl, as vas iIIuslralod by llo IogaI vrangIing
ovor llo vaIidily of llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclions. AcluaI roprossion
vas Iimilod in ils sovorily, vlicl Iimilod llo offondor´s foar of llo au-
llorilios. In llo ond, llo SBU lriod lo sproad llo improssion llal il lad
rovoIlod againsl llo Minislry of llo Inlorior and bIockod llo uso of forco.
A fifll claraclorislic of llo Kuclma rogimo vas ils disrogard for llo
Iav. As nolod oarIior, Ukraino las fairIy rudimonlary corporalo IogisIa-
lion, Iacking ovon an oIomonlary Iav on joinl slock companios. Tlo Io-
gaI syslom is in sad slapo, and no roaI judiciaI roform las boon undor-
lakon. Rallor llan pursuo any IogaI roform, Irosidonl Kuclma oxpIoilod
llo IavIossnoss of llo oId communisl syslom, vlicl aIIovod lim and
the anci en régi me 25
llo slaff of lis vasl prosidonliaI adminislralion lo caII any officiaI and
ordor lim or lor lo mako a docision in vioIalion of llo Iav.
did nol salisfy domands from llo rising onlropronouriaI slralum for a
ralionaI IogaI syslom.
A sixll foaluro of llo oId syslom vas llo compIox slalus of proporly
riglls. On llo ono land, privalizalion, llo soparalion of proporlios, and
llo consoIidalion of onlorprisos lad givon big businossmon onougl so-
curily lo omboIdon llom lo slov lloir poIilicaI muscIo. Tloso dismayod
vill unjusl Iossos of proporly vonl inlo opposilion lo rocovor lloir Iossos.
A common viov in Kyiv vas llal llo Donolsk cIan vouId lako ovor
mucl of llo proporly in llo capilaI if Yanukovycl voro lo vin llo oIoc-
lion. Tlis llroal loIpod lo mobiIizo llo Kyiv middIo cIass bolind
Yuslclonko. On llo ollor land, proporly riglls romainod sufficionlIy
voak and conloslod lo prompl businossmon inlo poIilics lo miligalo sucl
risks. Tloir lvo conlrary ambilions, lo onsuro proporly riglls and
lo soizo proporly, conlribulod lo an oxlraordinary IovoI of campaign
Tlo sovonll and finaI foaluro of llo oId rogimo vas llal oconomic
grovll lad boon so ligl for so Iong llal il vas lakon for granlod. AIoxis
do TocquoviIIo poinlod oul llal llo Ironcl RovoIulion did nol lappon
vlon llings voro golling vorso, bul vlon lloy voro golling bollor.
Iikoviso, llo Orango RovoIulion look pIaco amid an unprocodonlod
oconomic boom. Ior fivo yoars Ukraino´s gross domoslic producl lad
rison by an annuaI avorago of no Ioss llan 9 porconl, and il surgod by a
slunning 12.1 porconl in 2004.
AIllougl llo slandard of Iiving incroasod
ovon faslor, vill llo roaI vago skyrockoling by 24 porconl in 2004, poopIo
voro dissalisfiod.
As in do TocquoviIIo´s Iranco, llo probIom vas nol
llo oconomic officioncy of llo oId syslom, bul llal ils injuslicos lad bo-
como Ioss loIorabIo. ¨AIllougl inoquaIily of laxalion provaiIod aII ovor
Iuropo, lloro voro fov counlrios in vlicl il lad bocomo so fIagranl
and so mucl doloslod as in Iranco.¨ Iurllormoro, ¨Tloro vas nolling
nov in lloso doIinquoncios on llo parl of llo adminislralion, vlal vas
nov vas llo indignalion lloy arousod.¨
Higl oconomic grovll ap-
poars rallor lo lavo convincod poopIo of llo obsoIosconco of llo poIili-
caI syslom. A Marxisl vouId say llal llo oconomic baso lad oulgrovn
llo poIilicaI suporslrucluro, and rising prosporily undoublodIy onlancod
llo soIf-confidonco of llo surging middIo cIass.
Tvo conslanl foaluros of llo oId syslom conlribulod lo llo rovoIulion
as voII. Iirsl, Ukraino lad lad a conslilulion sinco 1996, and corlain
formaI ruIos voro porcoivod as vilaI: nolabIy, llal oIoclions slouId bo
26 anders åslund
loId and llal lloy slouId bo loId on limo. OfficiaI rospocl for llo for-
maIilios of llo oIoclions vas llo focaI poinl of opposilion aclivily.
Anollor pocuIiarily of llo oId Ukrainian rogimo vas llo groal poIili-
caI infIuonco of Ukraino´s various rogions. Mosl Ukrainian oIoclions lavo
boon claraclorizod by slrong lonsion bolvoon oasl and vosl. Al llo limo
of indopondonco, voslornors loId svay, bul nol for Iong. Dnipropolrovsk
dominalod undor primo minislors Kuclma, Iazaronko, and
Iuslovoilonko. Donolsk poopIo camo lo prominonco vill primo minis-
lors ZvialiIskiy and Yanukovycl. AdmillodIy, Yuslclonko comos from
Sumy, and Kinakl from MykoIaiv, bul noillor roaIIy roprosonls lis ro-
gion. Ukraino´s rogionaI rivaIrios lavo nol doslabiIizod llo Ukrainian
slalo bul rallor conlribulod lo ils pIuraIism, as Sloplon Soslanovicl las
suggoslod: ¨Ukraino´s vory dividodnoss las lurnod oul lo bo a cruciaI
ingrodionl of ils omorgonl domocralic succoss. . . . Tlo counlry´s divi-
sions givo Iosors a poIilicaI baso llal can´l bo lakon avay. NalionaI dis-
unily guaranloos conloslod oIoclions in praclico, bul poII rosuIls suggosl
llal Ukrainians lavo gono furllor, ombracing pIuraIism as a principIo.¨
Tlo opposilion vas abIo lo conlroI sovoraI of llo voslorn provincos ovon
undor Kuclma. SlrangoIy, llo counlry´s oxlromo conlraIizalion of slalo
povor las nol miligalod llis rogionaI rivaIry.
Tlo Ukrainian rovoIulion vas no surpriso. Tlo possibiIily of a ro-
gimo clango in llo prosidonliaI oIoclions of 2004 lad boon inlonsoIy
discussod ovor sinco llo parIiamonlary oIoclions in Marcl 2002. Tlou-
sands of poopIo lad boon vorking for llal aim. In Augusl 2004, llo
Yanukovycl campaign arguod inlonsoIy llal lloro vouId bo no ¨Closl-
nul RovoIulion¨ or a ropolilion of llo Goorgian Roso RovoIulion in
Ukraino. NovorlloIoss, llo oId rogimo vas poacofuIIy dofoalod in llo
scloduIod oIoclions. Tlis ovorsigll by llo oId rogimo can bo oxpIainod
nol onIy by llo slrongll and dolorminalion of llo rovoIulionarios, bul
parlIy by Kuclma´s roIuclanco lo givo up lis oId gamo, parlIy by llo
lubris of llo oId rogimo, and aIso by llo obslacIos lo coIIusion among
llo compolilivo Ukrainian oIilo.

1. AIoxis do TocquoviIIo, 1|c O|! Rcgimc .n! i|c Ircnc| Rctc|uiicn (Nov York: DoubIoday,
1955 [1856j). VaIorio Bunco las mado a simiIar argumonl aboul llo ond of commu-
nism, soo Bunco, Suotcrsitc |nsiiiuiicns. 1|c Dcsign .n! i|c Dcsiruciicn c| Scci.|ism .n!
i|c Si.ic (Nov York: Cambridgo Univorsily Iross, 1999).
2. Soo lvo oxcoIIonl sludios: Clryslia IrooIand, S.|c c| i|c Ccniurµ. Russi.´s Wi|! Ri!c
|rcm Ccmmunism ic C.pii.|ism (Nov York: Crovn Businoss, 2000), and David Hoffman,
1|c O|ig.rc|s (Nov York: IubIic Affairs, 2002).
the anci en régi me 27
3. }ooI S. HoIIman, ¨Winnors Tako AII: Tlo IoIilics of IarliaI Roform in Ioslcommunisl
Transilions,¨ Wcr|! Pc|iiics, 50 1998): 203÷34.
4. Viklor Tymoslonko, ¨Vso bogalyo Iyudi Ukrainy zarabolaIi svoy kapilaI na rossiyskom
gazo¨ [AII Ricl IoopIo in Ukraino Mado Tloir CapilaI on Russian Gasj, Ncz.tisim.µ.
g.zci., Oclobor 16, 1998.
5. Andors AsIund, ¨Wly Has Ukraino IaiIod lo Acliovo Iconomic Grovll`¨ in Andors
AsIund and Goorgos do MóniI, ods., |ccncmic Rc|crm in U|r.inc. 1|c Un|inis|c! Agcn!.
(Armonk, Nov York: M. I. Slarpo), 255÷77.
6. AsIund, ¨Wly Has Ukraino IaiIod`¨
7. Roborl Kravcluk, U|r.ini.n Pc|iiic.| |ccncmµ. 1|c Iirsi 1cn Yc.rs (Nov York: IaIgravo
MacMiIIan, 2002), 81.
8. Andors AsIund, ¨Ukraino´s Rolurn lo Iconomic Grovll,¨ Pcsi-Sctici Gccgr.p|µ .n!
|ccncmics, 42 (5) (2001): 313 28.
9. |ccncmic Si.iisiics, InlornalionaI Conlro for IoIicy Sludios, Kµit, }anuary 2005.
10. Cf. Dioga Gambolla, 1|c Sici|i.n M.|i. (Cambridgo, Mass.: Harvard Univorsily Iross,
11. HaIf of llo 450 soals vas aIIocalod llrougl a proporlionaI oIocloraI syslom vill parly
Iisls. Tlo ollor laIf vas von llrougl majorily volos in ono-man consliluoncios.
12. InloIIigonl obsorvors arguo llal Tylipko vouId lavo boon a mucl bollor candidalo,
bul I am nol avaro of any opinion poII rocording moro supporl for lim llan 4 porconl,
and lo lad lad ampIo opporlunily lo boosl lis pubIic slanding.
13. A gonoraI sourco on llo biggosl businossmon and lloir loIdings is |ntcsig.zci. 1cp
100, }uno 24, 2003.
14. Inlorviov vill Rinal Aklmolov, Docombor 8, 2004, Korslin Zimmor, ¨Tlo Caplurod
Rogion: Aclors and Inslilulions in llo Ukrainian Donbas,¨ in MoIanio Talur, od., M.|-
ing Rcgicns in Pcsi-Scci.|isi |urcpc. 1|c |mp.ci c| Hisicrµ, |ccncmic Siruciurc, .n! |nsii-
iuiicns÷C.sc Siu!ics |rcm Pc|.n!, Hung.rµ, Rcm.ni., .n! U|r.inc (OpIadon: Iosko &
Budricl, 2003), Adrian Karalnycky, ¨A Ukrainian Magnalo Trios lo Mond Ioncos,¨
W.|| Sircci jcurn.|, }anuary 14, 2005, and Yovlon Dubolryz, ¨Moro-or-Ioss CiviIizod,¨
Kcnir.|iµ, }anuary 17, 2005.
15. Inlorviov vill Viklor Iincluk, Marcl 2003.
16. Inlorviov vill Gonnady BogoIiubov, Marcl 2003, ¨Sokroly gruppy 'Irival´: Mosla
slarla kar´ory Tigipko¨ [Socrols of llo Irival Group: Tlo Slarling IIaco of llo Caroor
of Tylipkoj, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Augusl 3, 2004, ¨Somoniuk sudilsya za sobslvonnosl´
Iincluka, Aklmolova, Irivala i RusIana¨ [Somoniuk Is Suing for llo Iroporly of
Iincluk, Aklmolov, Irival and RusIanj, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Iobruary 9, 2005.
17. Inlorviov vill Sorliy Tarula, Docombor 2004, Zimmor, ¨Tlo Caplurod Rogion¨,
Dubolryz, ¨Moro-or-Ioss CiviIizod.¨
18. Sorliy Ioslclonko, ¨Inlorviov vill Iolro Ioroslonko,¨ U|r.ins|. pr.t!., }anuary 5,
19. Inlorviov vill a sonior mombor of llo Yuslclonko campaign, Soplombor 2004.
20. ¨Businoss BankroIIod Orango RovoIulion,¨ Agonco Iranco-Irosso, Kyiv, Iobruary 17,
21. Tlo Goorgo W. Busl 2004 campaign is officiaIIy assossod lo lavo cosl $670 miIIion.
22. ¨Sokroly gruppy 'Irival´¨ [Socrols of Irival Groupj.
23. |ntcsig.zci. 1cp 100, }uno 24, 2003.
24. YuIia Tymoslonko and Iolro Symononko lavo usod llis numbor.
25. IorsonaI informalion from insidors al llo limo.
26. Al Ioasl lop Yuslclonko aidos OIol Rybacluk and David Zlvanya onjoyod subslan-
liaI accoss lo covorl informalion from llo SBU. Inlorviovs vill boll. U|r.ins|. pr.t!.
las ropoalodIy pubIislod vilaI Ioaks from llo socrol sorvico.
28 anders åslund
27. C. }. Clivors, ¨Hov llo SBU Avorlod a Crackdovn in Ialo Novombor,¨ Ncu Ycr|
1imcs, }anuary 17, 2005. Tlis vorsion is vidoIy dispulod by Ukrainians as succossfuI
disinformalion from llo SBU.
28. Do TocquoviIIo doscribod a simiIar slalo of affairs in Iranco boforo llo rovoIulion:
¨Tloro vo lavo llo oId rogimo in a nulsloII: rigid ruIos, bul fIoxibiIily, nol lo say
Iaxily, in lloir appIicalion. . . . undor llo oId rogimo ovorylling vas caIcuIalod lo
discourago llo Iav-abiding inslincl.¨ 1|c O|! Rcgimc, 67.
29. Ibid., 176.
30. |ccncmic Si.iisiics, InlornalionaI Conlro for IoIicy Sludios, ApriI 2005.
31. Soo claplor llroo in llis book.
32. Ibid., 87 and 178, rospoclivoIy.
33. Sloplon R. Soslanovicl, ¨Ukraino´s Domocralic Slronglls,¨ W.s|ingicn Pcsi, Novom-
bor 19, 2005.
chapter two
The Fall and Rise of Ukraine’s
Political Opposition: From
Kuchmagate to the
Orange Revolution
adrian karatnycky
the roots of the Orango RovoIulion oxlond back mucl furllor llan
llo yoar 2004 and Ukraino´s lurbuIonl faII and vinlor. Indood, Ukraino´s
broad-basod poIilicaI opposilion vas many yoars in llo making. SliII, il
can ovon bo said llal÷aparl from llo Communisl Iarly and, lo a Iossor
dogroo, llo SociaIisl Iarly÷unliI llo Ialo 1990s, nolling rosombIing con-
sislonl opposilion oporalod in Ukraino. A syslomalic roformisl domo-
cralic poIilicaI opposilion did nol omorgo unliI llo cIoso of llo yoar 2000.
Frnm Cnnperatinn tn Oppnsitinn
Wly vas lloro no consislonl roform opposilion in llo oarIy yoars of
Ukraino´s indopondonco` In llo Iallor parl of llo 1980s, undor MiklaiI
Gorbaclov´s ruIo, Ukraino, mucl Iiko llo BaIlic slalos and ollor Soviol
ropubIics, sav a proIiforalion of indopondonl civic groups. Tlo mosl
nolabIo of lloso vas llo IoopIo´s Movomonl of Ukraino, vlicl
sorvod as an umbroIIa group for lundrods of IocaI and nalionaI civic,
cuIluraI, poIilicaI, and luman riglls organizalions. IslabIislod by ro-
formisl vrilors and formor poIilicaI prisonors, Rukl organizod mass
domonslralions invoIving lons and ovon lundrods of llousands of par-
licipanls in llo yoars 1989÷1991. Il aclivoIy campaignod and loIpod oIocl
noncommunisls and anlicommunisls lo llo Ukrainian SSR´s Supromo
30 adrian karatnycky
Soviol. In llo IogisIaluro, il croalod a coaIilion faclion, llo Domocralic
bIoc, vill dissidonls from llo Communisl Iarly´s Domocralic pIalform.
Aflor llo broakdovn of llo USSR, llo coIIapso of llo communisl sys-
lom, and llo omorgonco of indopondonl posl-Soviol slalos in llo aflor-
mall of llo faiIod Augusl 1991 coup, llo unily of Rukl as a civic-poIilicaI
coaIilion bogan lo orodo, and nov poIilicaI parlios slarlod lo proIiforalo
on llo Ukrainian Iandscapo.
Tlus, nongovornmonlaI roformisl parlios÷many of llom arising from
a spIinloring of Rukl÷oxislod in llo oarIy yoars of indopondonco, bul
lloir claIIongos voro primariIy focusod on oIoclions. Tloy voro nol con-
sislonlIy arlicuIalo boyond slorl oIocloraI poriods. AIllougl boll in llo
1991 and 1994 prosidonliaI oIoclions roform candidalos ran for llo
counlry´s liglosl offico, lloir candidalos novor acliovod significanl sup-
porl. Tlo ligl-valor mark camo in 1991, vlon VyaclosIav ClornoviI
of Rukl oblainod 23.2 porconl of llo volo. In llo 1994 prosidonliaI oIoc-
lions, OIoksandr Moroz (of llo llon-slalisl sociaIisls) oblainod 13.3 por-
conl, vliIo indopondonl roformor VoIodymyr Ianoviy allainod 9.5 por-
conl. In 1999, Moroz vas again llo main opposilion forco (vill 11.3
porconl supporl) in llo prosidonliaI oIoclion von by Irosidonl Kuclma.
Dospilo a significanl prosonco of roformisl IogisIalors in Rukl, llo lop
Ioadorslip posls voro consislonlIy loId by ox-communisls, many vill
a ncmcn||.iur. pasl. In llo parIiamonlary oIocloraI procoss, opposilion
poIilics voro oncumborod by laIf of llo soals boing consliluoncy-basod,
according lo llo Iav roform inlroducod in 1998. Tloso soals voro usu-
aIIy von by nominaIIy indopondonl candidalos Iinkod primariIy lo llo
ruIing adminislralivo oIilo and IoyaI lo llo incumbonl oxoculivo.
In lis llroo yoars as prosidonl, Ioonid Kravcluk oslabIislod llo prac-
lico of cooporaling vill noncommunisl and anlicommunisl roformors,
as voII as pIacing llom in govornmonlaI Ioadorslip posls. WliIo povor
vas firmIy in llo lands of Kravcluk´s inlimalos, vlo voro mainIy
formor Communisl Iarly officiaIs, ligl-ranking posls voro aIso slarod
vill nalionaI domocralic Ioadors and roform domocrals. Ior oxampIo,
Ilor Yuklnovsky sorvod as firsl dopuly primo minislor in 1992÷1993,
vliIo in 1992÷1993 Rukl Ioador OIoksandor Iavrynovycl vas llo acl-
ing diroclor of llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission.
Tlis praclico oxpandod undor Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma (1994÷2004).
Ioadors sucl as Sorliy HoIovaly of llo Roform group (vlicl lad
omorgod in Iargo moasuro from llo miIiou of Rukl aclivisls) bocamo llo
juslico minislor from 1995 lo 1997, Yuriy Koslonko (a Ioador of llo Rukl
group in parIiamonl) sorvod as onvironmonl minislor from 1995 lo 1998,
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 31
and Viklor Iynzonyk (aIso of llo Roform group) vas inlormillonlIy
dopuly primo minislor for oconomic affairs from 1995 lo 1997.
Il is lardIy surprising llal llis plonomonon of ¨colabilalion¨ and
parlicipalion bocamo vidosproad. Aflor aII, roformisl poIilicaI parlios
voro voak and undiscipIinod. Tloy voro somolimos prossod lo join llo
govornmonl by Woslorn domocracios oagor lo inslaII roformors in koy
minislrios lo onsuro momonlum for llo oconomic and poIilicaI roform
procoss. Moroovor, llo conlours of ligl corruplion and criminaIily as-
socialod vill Irosidonl Kuclma´s innor circIo voro IargoIy unknovn
boyond llo roaIm of suspicion and supposilion. Tlo ruIing oIilo lad nol
yol consoIidalod ilsoIf inlo discipIinod financiaI-poIilicaI parlios, vlicl
vouId llon omorgo onIy vill llo rapid riso of oIigarclic groups in llo
Ialo 1990s. Indopondonl poIilicaI parlios found il difficuIl lo mainlain a
poIilicaI in llo absonco of indopondonl privalo-soclor supporl
and vill mosl of lloir supporlors impovorislod. In addilion, llo vasl
povors of llo prosidoncy (vlicl camo inlo offocl vill llo conslilulionaI
roforms of 1996) mado llo load of slalo llo koy povor brokor, Iimiling
llo imporlanco of parIiamonl and parlios villin llo IogisIaluro.
Tlis conslilulionaI roform aIso mado govornorslips subjocl lo prosi-
donliaI appoinlmonl, oIiminaling anollor polonliaI baso for indopon-
donl poIilicaI palronago and supporl. IinaIIy, llo Kuclma adminislra-
lion skiIIfuIIy usod govornmonlaI posls lo bIunl or diffuso conlinuing
opposilion and lo co-opl polonliaI poIilicaI oppononls.
If vo oxcIudo llo communisls (vlo voro anliroform) and llo sociaI-
isls (vlo voro novor parlicipanls in llo Kuclma Ioadorslip), llo fac-
lors I lavo Iislod conlribulod lo llo absonco of consislonl roformisl po-
IilicaI opposilion lo incumbonl povor in llo firsl docado of Ukraino´s
Tlus, vill llo oxcoplion of llo sociaIisls, among loday´s incumbonl
¨Orango¨ coaIilion parlios,
lloro is no imporlanl poIilicaI grouping llal
vas nol Iinkod lo ligl govornmonl sorvico in llo Kuclma yoars. Cur-
ronl lop officiaIs vlo sorvod in ligl offico during lloso yoars incIudo
Irosidonl Yuslclonko, vlo vas llo primo minislor undor Kuclma,
Irimo Minislor YuIia Tymoslonko, vlo vas llo dopuly primo minis-
lor, Iirsl Dopuly Irimo Minislor Analoiy Kinakl, vlo is a formor primo
minislor, Dopuly Irimo Minislor OIol Rybacluk, vlo vas llo cliof of
slaff lo Irimo Minislor Yuslclonko, Ioroign Minislor Borys Tarasyuk,
vlo lad aIroady sorvod as llo foroign minislor, and Iinanco Minislor
Viklor Iynzonyk, vlo lad ropoalodIy boon llo dopuly primo minislor.
32 adrian karatnycky
Wlal Iod llo migralion of lloso Ioadors inlo opon poIilicaI opposi-
lion` Wlal ovonls lriggorod llo croalion of llo poIilicaI nolvork of op-
posilion forcos llal advancod llo Orango RovoIulion`
Tlo omorgonco of a consoIidalod opposilion look many yoars and
vas advancod by muIlipIo faclors. Tlo passago of a nov conslilulion in
1996 rondorod llo prosidoncy an inordinaloIy povorfuI posl, bul il aIso
mado llo prosidonl and lis innor circIo llo objocls of aII nogolialion and
ovonluaIIy llo focaI poinl of aII bIamo and opposilion. Will llo passago
of conslilulionaI roform, aII Ukrainians knov llal ¨llo buck sloppod¨
in Kuclma´s offico (usuaIIy boforo making ils vay lo a numborod off-
sloro accounl).
Al llo samo limo, insidor privalizalion, macrooconomic slabiIizalion,
and an ond lo lyporinfIalion croalod a nov sol of poIilicaI aclors: pov-
orfuI and prosporous oIigarclic groups. Tlo incroasing infIuonco of lloso
IargoIy rogionaI oIilos bocamo foIl vill llo arrivaI lo povor of IavIo
Iazaronko, llo formor govornor of Dnipropolrovsk. As firsl dopuly primo
minislor and as primo minislor, Iazaronko vas vidoIy boIiovod lo bo
invoIvod in llo accumuIalion of vasl porsonaI oconomic voaIll, cor-
roboralod by ovidonco prosonlod al lis U.S. lriaI.
Iazaronko´s ruIo arousod groving vorrios aboul llo roIo of poIilicaI-
oconomic groups and lloir palrimoniaI Iinks vill llo govornmonl. Tloso
concorns bocamo llo naluraI focus of llo disaffoclion of dispIacod min-
islors, vlo bocamo incroasingIy crilicaI lovard Kuclma. Tlo riso of oIi-
garclic inlorosl groups slruclurod rogionaI, oconomic, and poIilicaI in-
lorosls. WliIo corlain groups surgod as povorfuI poIilicaI insidors, somo
formor poIilicaI insidors voro lransformod inlo poIilicaI oulsidors and
unsvorving poIilicaI oppononls. As a rosuIl of Iazaronko´s oxpuIsion
from llo lop Ioadorslip, lo and lis backors (incIuding YuIia
Tymoslonko) voro lransformod inlo a cIoar poIilicaI opposilion forco
againsl llo prosidonl. Ollor officiaIs vlo voro forcod oul of llo gov-
ornmonl aIso joinod llo opposilion lo llo Kuclma adminislralion.
The Years 2001÷2002: The Oppnsitinn FaIters
Boforo 2000, civic groups, roprosonlod by volor-moniloring groups, civic
aIIiancos, llink lanks, and indopondonl modia (cliofIy Inlornol journaIs
and novsvookIios) formod llo mainslay of consislonl crilicism of llo
Kuclma prosidoncy. Many of llom, lovovor, voro on llo poriplory of
parly poIilicaI Iifo.
In 2000, llo firsl lriggors of porsislonl anligovornmonl opposilion camo
vill llo abduclion and murdor of opposilion invosligalivo journaIisl
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 33
Hoorliy Gongadzo. Tlo journaIisl´s disappoaranco bocamo an inlorna-
lionaI causo cóIòbro, bul il vouId lavo Iod novloro if nol for llo dofoc-
lion of Major MykoIa MoInyclonko and llo rovoIalion llal lo and somo
colorls lad rocordod moro llan ono llousand lours of Irosidonl
Kuclma´s privalo convorsalions. In lloso convorsalions, Kuclma do-
mandod Gongadzo´s abduclion, discussod llo criminaI larassmonl of
poIilicaI oppononls, ongagod in ligl-IovoI corruplion, and rovoaIod lim-
soIf lo bo al llo conlor of a criminaI and corrupl syslom of ruIo.
Irolosls voro Iaunclod undor llo ¨Ukraino villoul Kuclma¨ and
¨Ior Trull¨ bannors, roprosonling llo lvo coaIilions uniling opposilion
youll and civic and poIilicaI organizalions. Tloso groups loId a sorios
of domonslralions (and Ialor a polilion campaign) aimod al prossing for
Kuclma´s impoaclmonl and romovaI from offico. WliIo sludonls and
civic aclivisls voro liglIy aclivo in llo offorl, llo ¨Ukraino villoul
Kuclma¨ movomonl aIso incIudod Ioadors and aclivisls from a numbor
of poIilicaI parlios, incIuding llo SociaIisl Iarly, YuIia Tymoslonko´s
Balkivslclyna Iarly, llo Rukl Iarly, and llo Iarly. Koy Ioadors
of llo Orango RovoIulion look parl in llo 2000÷2001 prolosls, incIuding
SociaIisl Iarly officiaI Yuriy Iulsonko (nov Ukraino´s inlorior minis-
lor), Taras Slolskiv (vlo in 2004 sorvod as a coordinalor of llo Maidan
prolosls), as voII as llo fuluro Ioadors of llo Iora youll movomonl,
vlicl vas oslabIislod in 2004.
SovoraI Ioadors of llo anli-Kuclma movomonl of 2000÷2001 lad oar-
Iior cul lloir organizalionaI looll on llo mass prolosls of 1990, vlon
sludonls and vorkors forcod llo rosignalion of llo Ukrainian SSR´s rol-
rogrado primo minislor, ViloId Iokin. Anli-Kuclma prolosls croslod in
llo vinlor of 2000÷2001, bul crovds in Kyiv novor oxcoodod fifly llou-
sand. On Marcl 9, 2001, vill prolosls obbing, poIico supprossod an an-
ligovornmonl raIIy and domoIislod a ¨camp cily¨ in Kyiv. Mosl pro-
losls lad boon nonvioIonl, llougl agonls provocalours lad ongagod in
vioIonl allacks on llo miIilia.
Yol llo consoIidalion of a broad-basod opposilion oIomonl in 2001
vas compIicalod by a sol of compIox silualionaI faclors. Iirsl, llo main
sourco of supporl, llo roformisl poIilicaI oslabIislmonl, roprosonlod by
llon÷primo minislor Viklor Yuslclonko, lad adoplod a slanco of nou-
lraIily diclalod by ils parlicipalion in llo govornmonl. Socond, llo orup-
lion of vioIonco among llo domonslralors lad dolorrod mucl of Kyiv´s
and Ukraino´s middIo cIass and inloIIigonlsia from comforlabIy supporl-
ing llo ¨radicaI¨ opposilion. Tlird, llo Kuclma govornmonl covod
polonliaI propononls from llo businoss oIilo from supporling opposi-
lion groups llrougl lax larassmonl and criminaI procossos÷llo mosl
34 adrian karatnycky
nolabIo boing llal againsl formor dopuly primo minislor YuIia
Tymoslonko, vlo vas loId in jaiI in Iobruary and Marcl 2001. Iourll,
llo Communisl Iarly, an inconsislonl and unroIiabIo oppononl of llo
Kuclma rogimo, sliII commandod a fair amounl of pubIic supporl, vlicl
vas lo orodo significanlIy by 2004.
Tlo faiIuro of llo civiI opposilion vas undorscorod by ils inabiIily lo
socuro ligl-IovoI supporl from a broad spoclrum of domocralic-roform
poIilicians. Tlis bogan lo clango vill llo dismissaI of Viklor
Yuslclonko as primo minislor in ApriI 2001. By Oclobor 2001, vill
Yuslclonko and lis circIo of supporlors romovod from povor (llougl
sliII ambivaIonl in lloir slanco lovard Irosidonl Kuclma), opposilion
Ioador Tymoslonko, vlo lad vorkod succossfuIIy aIongsido
Yuslclonko in llo govornmonl, caIIod for llo croalion of a broad poIili-
caI aIIianco llal vouId Iink lor Ironl for NalionaI SaIvalion, llo sociaI-
isls of OIoksandr Moroz, and Yuslclonko´s omorging Our Ukraino coa-
Iilion. Tymoslonko docIarod, ¨Il is oxaclIy llis bIoc, according lo my
doop conviclion, llal viII cIaim a viclory in [noxl yoar´sj parIiamonlary
oIoclions and inslaII in povor lonosl poIilicians vlo aro abIo lo inlro-
duco ordor in llo slalo. . . . ¨ Ollorviso, slo varnod, lloro ¨viII bo a
parIiamonl conlroIIod by oIigarclic, anlidomocralic, and anliroformisl
forcos llal viII conlinuo vill llo slamofuI praclico of supprossing
poopIo, sloaIing nalionaI voaIll, and ruining llo indopondonl slalo.¨
Tlis idoa of coaIilion poIilics vas broaclod by Yuslclonko limsoIf
in llo faII of 2001, bul Tymoslonko and ollor opposilion Ioadors vor-
riod llal llo ox-primo minislor vas roady lo mako common causo vill
somo pro-Kuclma groups.
The 2002 ParIiamentary Race: The Oppnsitinn Revives
AIllougl llo opposilion parlios campaignod soparaloIy, in llo Marcl
2002 parIiamonlary oIoclions, parlios and bIocs opposing Irosidonl
Kuclma did voII in llo proporlionaI parly Iisl volo, vill Our Ukraino
rocoiving noarIy 33 porconl of lloso soals. Tlo Tymoslonko bIoc and
llo sociaIisls oacl von noarIy 10 porconl of llo soals. Tlis volo domon-
slralod llo unifiod opposilion´s polonliaI, vlicl vas manifosl in llo
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004.
SliII, llo ruIing oIilo´s poIilicaI bIoc, ¨Ior a Unilod Ukraino,¨ man-
agod lo vin llo Iion´s slaro of llo soals apporlionod by majorily volo in
individuaI consliluoncios, vloro significanl faIsificalion occurrod. Tlis,
coupIod vill prossuro on indopondonl candidalos, Iod lo llo croalion of
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 35
a pro-Kuclma majorily undor parIiamonlary spoakor VoIodymyr
Iylvyn, llo formor load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion.
Aflor llo Our Ukraino bIoc faiIod in ils bid lo form a parIiamonlary
majorily vill ¨modoralo conlrisls¨ and llo forcod dofoclion of somo of
llo oIoclod supporlors lo llo Kuclma camp, Yuslclonko adoplod an
incroasingIy opposilionaI slanco and bogan lo cooporalo vill llo radi-
caI opposilion roprosonlod by llo Tymoslonko bIoc and llo sociaIisls.
TabIe 2.1. Cnmpnsitinn nI Ukraine's ParIiament (The Rada)

Vcics cn
|cr P.riµ
31, 2002¹
1ci.| Sc.is
15, 2004¹
Oppnsitinn Factinns
Our Ukraino 23.57 70 42 112 102
Communisls 19.98 59 6 65 59
Tymoslonko bIoc 7.26 22 0 22 19
SociaIisls 6.87 20 2 22 20
SublolaI 221 200
Prn-PresidentiaI Factinns
Ior a Unilod Ukraino
11.77 35 86
Rogions of Ukraino
(joinod by Iuropoan
Cloico faclion in
Novombor 2003) 67
Iabor Ukraino 42
Domocralic Inilialivos 18
IoopIo´s Iovor 22
Agrarian Iarly 14
IoopIo´s Domocralic
Iarly 16
IoopIo´s Cloico 14
(Unilod) SociaI
Domocralic Iarly of
Ukraino 6.27 19 8 27 36
SublolaI 148 229
Dopulios from ollor parlios
and indopondonls 80 80 20
TolaI in IarIiamonl 449

Ono soal romainod vacanl.
OfficiaI dala from vvv.rada.gov.uka and vvv.cvk.ukrpack.nol. AIIogiancos and
doscriplions rofIocl llo slalo of affairs on llo dalos indicalod. Aflor llo Orango
RovoIulion and Yuslclonko´s oIoclion viclory, somo pro-Kuclma parlios dissoIvod,
and many volod for llo Yuslclonko-nominalod govornmonl.

36 adrian karatnycky
Tlis poIilicaI migralion inlo oulrigll opposilion vas roinforcod by
llo prosidonl´s appoinlmonl in }uno 2002 of SociaI Domocralic Ioador
Viklor Modvodcluk as llo load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion. Un-
dor Modvodcluk, llo govornmonl´s conlroI of llo modia vas slrongll-
onod. Yuslclonko and ollor poIilicaI Ioadors voro oillor lakon off llo
airvavos or bocamo llo subjocl of unroIonling modia allacks on nalionaI
Modvodcluk undorslood voII llal Yuslclonko lad llo bosl clanco
lo bo oIoclod as llo succossor lo Irosidonl Kuclma, bul bocauso of lloir
muluaI anlipally, Modvodcluk Iaunclod an aII-oul Iong-lorm offorl lo
procIudo rapproclomonl bolvoon Yuslclonko and sogmonls of llo ruI-
ing oIilo. Insload, vill KromIin supporl, lo backod llo loroloforo-
obscuro govornor of llo Donolsk obIasl, Viklor Yanukovycl, an ox-con-
vicl vlo in Novombor 2002 bocamo primo minislor and llo prosidonliaI
slandard-boaror of llo ruIing oIilo. (Somo boIiovo llal Modvodcluk lar-
borod lopos of a llird lorm for Irosidonl Kuclma, bul lloro is no quos-
lion llal in llo ond lo llrov in lis Iol vill Yanukovycl.)
Tlo parIiamonlary oIoclion of Marcl 2002 vas a dry run for llo
Yuslclonko prosidonliaI campaign of 2004. Il roinforcod llo idoa among
radicaI opposilionisls and modoralo roformors llal Yuslclonko lad
broad-basod supporl and onougl backing lo vin llo prosidoncy.
Yuslclonko´s porsonaI popuIarily, rofIoclod in numorous poIIs llrougl-
oul 2003÷2004, vas imporlanl in buiIding a vidoning and colosivo coa-
Iilion. DiscipIino villin llo disparalo opposilion oIomonls vas oasior lo
mainlain bocauso llo prizo of poIilicaI povor soomod lo bo villin roacl.
Tlis moanl llal Yuslclonko couId oxorl conlinuing infIuonco ovor lis
Undor incroasing prossuro and allack from llo Kuclma adminislra-
lion, Yuslclonko movod lovard cooporalion vill llo moro radicaI op-
posilion. Tlus lo couId augmonl lis ovn baso vill groving supporl
from nov businoss and financiaI inlorosls and subslanliaI slaffing from
llo radicaI anli-Kuclma nolvork. Tlis nolvork incIudod Iargo num-
bors of opposilion civic groups, aclivisls from minor poIilicaI parlios,
and organizors of llo Iargo anligovornmonl prolosls during 2000÷2001.
By llo summor of 2004, Yuslclonko lad mado a pacl vill YuIia
Tymoslonko, croaling llo IoopIo´s Iovor CoaIilion. Tlo pacl incIudod
an agroomonl, subsoquonlIy lonorod by Yuslclonko, lo nominalo
Tymoslonko for primo minislor in llo ovonl of lis viclory in llo prosi-
donliaI raco.
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 37
Tlo coaIilion vill Tymoslonko vas of cruciaI imporlanco, for il co-
monlod Yuslclonko´s crodibiIily vill radicaI opposilionisls and
grassrools civic aclivisls. Tlo roIonlIoss modia allacks on Yuslclonko
by llo lalod Kuclma modia .pp.r.i roinforcod llis supporl, as did, uIli-
maloIy, llo allompl lo assassinalo Yuslclonko (or lo knock lim off llo
campaign lraiI) by poisoning lim. In oarIy Soplombor 2004, llo poison-
ing lad a calaIylic offocl on civic and poIilicaI aclivisls.
Minigarchs vs. OIigarchs
Yuslclonko Iaunclod lis oIoclion campaign in llo summor of 2004 and
vas dolorminod lo baso il al llo grassrools IovoI. Ho mado fuII uso of lis
poIilicaI parlnor, llo clarismalic YuIia Tymoslonko, vill lor loIp of-
foclivoIy doubIing lis oulroacl. Tlo campaign usod a dislinclivo poIili-
caI coIor, llo nov-famous orango luo, and a calcly campaign sIogan:
¨Virµu, Zn.µu, Mcz|cmc¨ (I boIiovo, I knov, Wo can do il). Tlo sIogan
croalod a sonso of mission for llo oIoclion. Il suggoslod idoaIism
(¨I boIiovo¨), a volor´s discornmonl and accoss lo roaI informalion
(¨I knov¨), and unbridIod confidonco (¨Wo can¨). Yuslclonko´s cam-
paign froquonlIy allackod Kuclma and lis oppononls (ospociaIIy aflor
llo allompl lo poison Yuslclonko), focusing on lloir rampanl corrup-
lion, vlicl, Yuslclonko clargod, impairod llo fair dislribulion of llo
bounlios of a groving oconomy. His campaign, lovovor, aIso advancod
a posilivo agonda of lopo and romindod volors of Yuslclonko´s soIid
rocord as primo minislor, during vlicl lo mado up vago arroars, in-
croasod ponsions, and squoozod llo oiI and gas barons lo onlanco llo
pubIic lroasury.
TabIe 2.2. Percentage nI Vnter 5uppnrt Inr Leading Candidates in
Ukraine EIectinns, 2003÷2004
junc 2003 j.nu.rµ 2004 Apri| 2004 junc 2004
Yuslclonko 35.4 33.9 29.1 35.5
Yanukovycl 13.8 13.8 21.9 24.0
Scurcc. Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion/SOCIS IoIIing Dala (avaiIabIo in
Ukrainian al vvv.dif.org.ua).
Ncic. IoIIoving Woslorn praclico, I lavo providod llo dislribulion of volos for llo
lvo main rivaIs among volors vlo oxprossod a proforonco, a praclico Domocralic
Inilialivos/SOCIS did nol foIIov. TypicaIIy, mosl poIIs indicalod bolvoon 25 porconl
and 35 porconl of llo oIocloralo sloving no proforonco among many candidalos.

38 adrian karatnycky
By conlrasl lo Yuslclonko´s smarl opposilion campaign,
Yanukovycl´s campaign lradod on lis slalus as primo minislor and fo-
cusod on officiaI ovonls llal rofIoclod incumbonl povor. Il vas rodoIonl
of llo Soviol pasl: lloro voro llo obIigalory faclory moolings, slagod
ribbon cullings, and llo Iiko. WliIo llo oconomy vas oxpanding rap-
idIy, Yanukovycl, oncouragod by lis Russian campaign advisors, pIacod
groalor omplasis on llo issuos of slalo slalus for llo Russian Ianguago
and inlogralion vill Russia as koy llomos of lis campaign. As llougl
lo undorscoro llis connoclion subIiminaIIy, Yanukovycl´s campaign Iil-
oraluro usod llo vlilo, rod, and bIuo coIors of llo Russian slalo fIag.
AIllougl llo poIIs slovod llal many Ukrainians voro in favor of
cIosor Iinks vill Russia, Irosidonl Iulin damagod Yanukovycl´s clancos
by ovorpIaying lis land. Tlo Russian prosidonl incroasod llo paco of
biIaloraI moolings vill Ukraino´s Ioadors and roguIarIy visilod Kyiv and
llo Crimoa. Yol lloso froquonl officiaI appoarancos in Ukraino sorvod
nol onIy lo undorscoro a Iink bolvoon llo KromIin and candidalo
Yanukovycl, bul aIso romindod llo pubIic of Yanukovycl´s cIoso Iink
lo llo unpopuIar prosidonl Kuclma, vlo by prolocoI vas prosonl al
mosl of lloso moolings. A }uno 2004 poII slovod llal Ioss llan 10 por-
conl of llo volors fuIIy lruslod llo Iamo-duck incumbonl prosidonl, vliIo
noarIy 56 porconl did nol lrusl lim al aII.
Dospilo a lugo disadvanlago in modia, financing, and adminislra-
livo rosourcos, pIus faIsificalions, Yuslclonko camo oul on lop in llo
firsl round of llo prosidonliaI raco by a margin of 39.9 lo 39.2 porconl÷
jusl aload of Irimo Minislor Yanukovycl÷in a crovdod fioId of lvonly-
four candidalos. Tlis, loo, loIpod in llo furllor consoIidalion of poIili-
caI supporl and llo broadoning of llo opposilion coaIilion. IinanciaI
and oconomic groups, vlicl omorgod as a rosuIl of llo Yuslclonko-
inspirod boom vill an avorago grovll ralo in llo gross nalionaI in-
como of 9 porconl sinco llo yoar 2000, lad croalod a nov gonoralion of
¨minigarcls.¨ Tloy rosonlod rampanl corruplion in lax adminislralion
and govornmonl and voro angry al llo pIundor of llo counlry by a
narrov group of oIigarclic biIIionairos backing llo incumbonl povor
oIilo and ils candidalo, Yanukovycl. Yuslclonko´s firsl-round succoss
aIso loIpod sol in molion nogolialions vill ollor candidalos and llo
furllor broadoning of lis coaIilion. NolabIy, Yuslclonko gainod llo
supporl of sociaIisl OIoksandr Moroz and llo candidalo of llo Iarly of
InduslriaIisls and Inlropronours, ox-primo minislor AnaloIiy Kinakl.
Tlo procoss of civic rovoIulionary consoIidalion procoodod and
vidonod in llo llroo vooks boforo llo socond round of llo prosidonliaI
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 39
oIoclion. In llo aflormall of llo oIocloraI fraud of Novombor 21÷22, il
vouId roacl ils apogoo. According lo indopondonl oxil poIIs, Yuslclonko
lad von llo socond-round volo by a margin of 10 porconl, and llo Con-
lraI IIoclion Commission´s unofficiaI laIIy slovod Yanukovycl as llo
vinnor by a margin of 49.5 lo 46.6 porconl. In llo ond, pubIic angor ovor
mounling ovidonco of volor fraud Iod lo llo Orango RovoIulion and
forcod a rorun of llo socond round. On Docombor 26, llo rosuIls cIosoIy
rosombIod lloso of llo Novombor 21 oxil poII. Yuslclonko lad von by
a margin of 52 lo 44 porconl.
Tlo Orango RovoIulion, vlicl foalurod sovonloon days of mass raI-
Iios in Kyiv and ollor major cilios, succoodod bocauso il bonofilod from
a sorios of laclicaI docisions mado by llo Yuslclonko camp. Ono doci-
sion, mado in llo summor of 2004, vas lo Iauncl a grassrools campaign
of pubIic moolings and mass raIIios vill llo prosidonliaI slandard-boaror.
Yuslclonko and many of lis poIilicaI aIIios crisscrossod Ukraino in an
improssivo daiIy rogimon of campaign raIIios. According lo Yuslclonko´s
llon-cliof of slaff, OIol Rybacluk, Yuslclonko lypicaIIy loId four lo
fivo moolings a day, ono in a major urban conlor, and sovoraI ollors in
noiglboring lovns and viIIagos. Tloso raIIios by llo candidalo voro
compoundod by llo brisk scloduIo of moolings undorlakon by
Yuslclonko´s backors: YuIia Tymoslonko, Borys Tarasyuk, and Yuriy
Koslonko, vlo llomsoIvos addrossod scoros of raIIios in }uIy, Augusl,
Soplombor, and Oclobor.
BIockod from llo airvavos and from mosl of llo modia, llo
Yuslclonko campaign aIso croalod ils ovn dislribulion nolvork of
aclivisls, vlo dissominalod campaign Iiloraluro, incIuding a mass-
circuIalion oIoclion novspapor and spociaI oxpandod odilions of indo-
pondonl opposilion papors, somo of llom prinlod in odilions of as many
as fivo lo six miIIion copios. Sucl grassrools aclivisls, vlo ongagod in
organizing raIIios, dissominaling poslors, and dislribuling campaign Iil-
oraluro, voro aIso lrainod lo assumo llo roIo of oIoclion monilors Ialor
al lons of llousands of poIIing slalions during llo llroo slagos of prosi-
donliaI voling.
Yuslclonko furllor bonofilod from llo significanl grovll of indo-
pondonl civic Iifo and llo omorgonco of an array of skiIIod civic organiz-
ors, somo of vlom lad lonod lloir skiIIs in provious prolosl movo-
monls. Many of lloso civic aclivisls lad loIpod organizo llo ¨Ukraino
villoul Kuclma¨ and llo ¨Ior Trull¨ movomonls, incIuding VIadisIav
Kaskiv and MyklaiIo Svyslovycl, vlo bocamo koy Ioadors in llo lvo
vings of llo Iora civic youll movomonl. AIllougl Iora vas organizod
40 adrian karatnycky
around civic oducalion and oIoclion-moniloring offorls, ils aclivisls aIso
lad significanl conlacl vill Goorgian and Sorbian (as voII as SIovak
and Romanian) civic aclivisls and dovoIopod organizing and civic ac-
lion loclniquos usod in lloso oarIior domocralic lransilions. In llo sum-
mor of 2004, Iora aclivisls voro aIso lrainod in organizing loclniquos
and in nonvioIonl civic prolosl, sucl as crovd conlroI and llo Iogislics
of organizing mass prolosls, skiIIs llal voro inlondod lo bo dopIoyod in
llo ovonl of volor fraud.
Tlo Orango opposilion vas a mass movomonl Iod by a broad-basod
poIilicaI umbroIIa coaIilion. Tlo IoopIo´s Iovor CoaIilion, foundod on
llo Yuslclonko÷Tymoslonko aIIianco, vas oxpandod vill llo parlici-
palion of llo Iarly of InduslriaIisls and Inlropronours and llo SociaIisl
Iarly. Aflor llo rogimo lad sougll lo faIsify llo Novombor 21 socond-
round oIoclion rosuIls on a grand scaIo, Yuslclonko´s IoopIo´s Iovor
CoaIilion vas slrongllonod by grassrools slrucluros, financiaI rosourcos,
and llo Ioadors of a vido array of civic groups. Tloso unilod in llo Com-
milloo for NalionaI SaIvalion, llo umbroIIa coaIilion for llo Orango Rovo-
Iulion. CuIluraI figuros, mayors and ollor IocaI officiaIs, miIilia and
miIilary officors, and unions and vorkor coIIoclivos, aII fIockod lo
Yuslclonko´s sido, as did llo inlornalionaI communily.
AIllougl Woslorn financiaI supporl lad providod lraining and sup-
porlod oIoclion moniloring, oxil poIIs, and civic-oducalion vork, llo
various compononls voro slriclIy nonparlisan, and llo Yuslclonko cam-
paign vas financod onliroIy by Ukrainians. MiIIions of doIIars pourod
in lo fund llo oslabIislmonl of a Iargo lonl cily, lo suppIy food for llo
lons of llousands of roguIar domonslralors, and lo provido loal as llo
lomporaluros droppod in Novombor and Docombor. IocaI onlropronours
fod and lousod llousands of domonslralors. Tlo IocaI cily adminislra-
lion of Kyiv aIso Ioanod ils rosourcos lo supporl llo popuIar povor
Yuslclonko´s Ionglimo popuIarily (as rofIoclod in poIIing dala and
in Iargo pubIic raIIios) and lis significanl clanco for viclory yioIdod an
addilionaI bonofil, llo dosiro of many socurily and miIilary officiaIs lo
romain noulraI in llo campaign. Yuslclonko´s yoars in govornmonl lad
foslorod numorous roIalionslips vill socurily, poIico, and miIilary offi-
ciaIs. Tloso informaI conlacls bocamo imporlanl clannoIs of communi-
calion in llo poriod boforo llo oIoclion and incroasod aflor Yuslclonko´s
poisoning, vlicl somo profossionaI socurily sorvico officiaIs rosonlod
as furllor ovidonco of llo criminaIizalion and dogradalion of lloir
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 41
Sogmonls of llo SBU virolappod llo officos of llo ConlraI IIoclion
Commission and rocordod llo convorsalions of ligl govornmonl and
prosidonliaI adminislralion officiaIs associalod vill voling fraud.
Tlal llo Orango coaIilion vas Iod by soasonod formor govornmonl offi-
ciaIs and prominonl businoss Ioadors and vas supporlod by many IocaI
govornmonl officiaIs faciIilalod spIils villin llo ruIing coaIilion.
Tlo Orango coaIilion couId bargain vill mombors of llo oslabIislmonl
and counl on supporl from domocralicaIIy orionlod officiaIs.
Woslorn dipIomalic prossuro and inlornalionaI modia allonlion, cuI-
livalod diIigonlIy by llo opposilion as llo ovonls in Ukraino bocamo llo
gIobo´s lop inlornalionaI slory, voro aIso parl of llo arsonaI of llo poIili-
caI opposilion. IinaIIy, llo opposilion vas loIpod by a modia rovoIl
againsl slalo consorslip by journaIisls al virluaIIy aII Ukraino´s nalionaI
loIovision slalions. Tlo indopondonl ClannoI 5 (carriod mainIy on cabIo)
and IRA loIovision, vloso novs and commonlarios lad roconlIy adoplod
a pro-opposilion lono, pIayod cruciaI roIos.
The Orange RevnIutinn: The Oppnsitinn Triumphs
AII lloso faclors conlribulod lo llo poacofuI and succossfuI domocralic
oulcomo of llo Orango RovoIulion, bul llo omorgonco of a broad, uni-
fiod coaIilion commillod lo nonvioIonl aclion appoars lo lavo lad llo
groalosl significanco. Tlo unily of llo opposilion is vilaI in mosl suc-
cossfuI lransilions from aullorilarianism lo domocracy. IquaIIy impor-
lanl is llo conscious commilmonl of civic groups lo nonvioIonl moans
of slruggIo and prossuro.
Wlon llo prolosls oruplod on llo morning of Novombor 22 and llo
Orango RovoIulion vas Iaunclod, significanl advanco proparalion lad
boon mado for llo domonslralions. Supporl for llo mass prolosls camo
from domoslic Our Ukraino donors, vlo voro mainIy llo counlry´s
omorging uppor middIo cIass and nov miIIionairos. Civic forcos formod
a common fronl vill llo poIilicaI opposilion onIy aflor il lad bocomo
cIoar llal llo aullorilios voro roady lo accopl llo oIoclion fraud and
procIaim Viklor Yanukovycl llo vinnor of llo socond round of voling.
Taras Slolskiv, ono of llo four coordinalors of llo prolosls in Indo-
pondonco Squaro, in a Canadian Broadcasling Corporalion documon-
lary, said llal lo lad rocoivod approvaI from llo Our Ukraino Ioador-
slip lo organizo llo infraslrucluro for posloIoclion prolosls in llo IikoIy
ovonl of a volor fraud. Tlal docision, lovovor, camo onIy aflor
Yuslclonko´s poisoning, vlicl convincod llo opposilion slandard-
42 adrian karatnycky
boaror llal lis oppononls voro rullIoss and capabIo of loIding povor
by any moans nocossary. Tlis docision providod accoss lo cruciaI funds,
vlicl voro usod lo buiId llo infraslrucluro of llo domonslralions, in-
cIuding llo slago, sound syslom, musicians, lonl cily, canloons, commu-
nicalions oquipmonl, and socurily.
Anollor cruciaI faclor vas llo Novombor 20 docision of a courl in
Kyiv´s Slovclonko dislricl lo lurn dovn llo cily adminislralion´s ro-
quosl lo ban llo prolosl raIIy al Maidan or roIocalo il lo a romolor poinl.
Tlal Iasl-minulo docision, vlicl camo on llo aflornoon boforo oIoclion
day, vas vilaI lo llo opposilion´s succoss. Maidan ilsoIf is idoaIIy suilod
for a Iong-Iasling vinlor prolosl. Iirsl, il is villin minulos of llo parIia-
monl, llo CounciI of Minislors buiIding, and llo prosidonliaI adminis-
lralion, aIIoving for llo rapid dopIoymonl of proloslors. Bonoall Maidan,
a varron of undorground passagos, vaIkvays, pIazas, slops, and cafós
onabIos proloslors lo doscond lo rocovor from llo vinlor coId. Tlis, as
mucl as llo lonl cily, vlicl lousod lons of llousands of domonslra-
lors, onsurod a Iargo, sloady pubIic prosonco in llo squaro llrougloul
sovonloon days of prolosl.
Bul llo Orango RovoIulion couId nol lavo succoodod villoul pubIic
opprobrium and civic angor. No mallor lov mucl proparalion or lrain-
ing lloro vas, no ono couId guaranloo llo massivo parlicipalion of llo
poopIo of Kyiv, and Ialor, of mucl of Ukraino. IoopIo voro mobiIizod
by llo porsonaI popuIarily of Yuslclonko, lloir groving avaronoss of
llo criminaIily and corruplion of llo incumbonl ruIing oIilo, and llo
sproad of a domocralic consciousnoss llal lad dovoIopod ovor Ukraino´s
llirloon yoars of indopondonco.
On Novombor 22, llo Orango RovoIulion driflod dangorousIy avay
from conslilulionaIism vlon Yuslclonko look llo oall of offico and
docIarod limsoIf prosidonl. Soon aflor, lovovor, il bocamo cIoar llal
Yuslclonko´s aclion lad boon inlondod as a moans of incroasing pros-
suro, and llo proforrod courso vas lo vork llrougl oxisling conslilu-
lionaI slrucluros. Rada´s docision lo annuI llo socond round and ordor a
rorun of llo oIoclion, logollor vill llo IogisIalivo framovork for nov
oIoclions adoplod by Rada, vas ossonliaI in llo lransformalion of a
poopIo´s rovoIulion inlo a conslilulionaI procoss.
In socuring llo bargain lo loId a ropoal of llo socond-round volo,
Yuslclonko and lis circIo mado a grand bargain: llo roslaping of con-
slilulionaI ordor, vill a roduclion in prosidonliaI povor, vlicl is lo
lako offocl no Ialor llan }anuary 2006. Tloro aro good roasons vly llis
bargain mado sonso.
from kuchmagate to the orange revolution 43
1. A Iargo, supporlivo parIiamonlary majorily vas croalod llrougl
2. Ukraino´s prosidoncy lad boon unclockod and far loo povorfuI,
and ils povors noodod lo bo roducod.
3. DoconlraIizalion of llo slronglloning of IocaI govornmonl is crili-
caI for Iong-lorm domocracy and slabiIily.
4. Tlo Marcl 2006 parIiamonlary oIoclions aro IikoIy lo rosuIl in
Rada vill a ¨pro-Orango¨ majorily, and Irosidonl Yuslclonko÷
acling llrougl lis Our Ukraino bIoc÷viII IikoIy pIay a pivolaI
roIo in slaping a majorily and in dolormining boll llo noxl, moro
povorfuI, primo minislor and llo noxl, moro povorfuI parIia-
monlary spoakor.
Prnspects Inr Ukraine aIter the Orange RevnIutinn
In llo ond, Ukraino´s socuro lransilion lo domocracy viII bo dolorminod
as mucl by llo naluro of llo opposilion lo Yuslclonko as by llo inlor-
naI poIilicaI ovoIulion of Our Ukraino and ollor Orango parlios. Tlis is
vly il is ossonliaI llal poIilicians Iinkod lo ligl corruplion and oIoc-
loraI faIsificalions bo oslracizod from opposilion groups and doniod a
pIaco in Ukraino´s poIilics. Wlal Ukraino abovo aII noods is a ¨non-
Orango¨ opposilion llal can bo lruslod lo prosorvo domocralic praclicos
vlon il ovonluaIIy comos lo povor.
Wlal, llon, is llo IikoIy fuluro of Ukraino and llo Iogacy of llo Or-
ango RovoIulion` A roconl sludy by Iroodom Houso of sixly-sovon lran-
silions from aullorilarian ruIo sinco 1972 may offor an ansvor.
Tlo sludy
found llal of llo llirly-six ¨froo¨ counlrios posl-lransilion, lvonly-four
(67 porconl) lad slrong civic movomonls, oigll (22 porconl) lad modor-
aloIy slrong civic movomonls, and onIy four (11 porconl) lad civic movo-
monls llal voro voak or absonl in llo lvo-yoar poriod boforo llo opon-
ing camo for lransilion. By conlrasl, llo dislribulion of lloso forcos among
¨parlIy froo¨ counlrios vas oigll (36 porconl), ¨slrong¨, sovon (32 por-
conl), ¨modoralo¨, and sovon (32 porconl), ¨voak or absonl.¨ Among
¨nol froo¨ counlrios, llo dislribulion vas zoro, ¨slrong¨, llroo (33 por-
conl), ¨modoralo¨, and six (67 porconl), ¨voak or absonl.¨
Tlo sludy aIso found llal lloro is a muIlipIior offocl in llo combina-
lion of a slrong civic coaIilion and a lransilion onvironmonl in vlicl
vioIonco is absonl. Wlon lloso lvo claraclorislics÷namoIy, lransilions
llal lavo slrong nonvioIonl civic coaIilions and lransilions llal voro
44 adrian karatnycky
llomsoIvos nonvioIonl or moslIy nonvioIonl÷voro combinod, oiglloon
lransilion counlrios salisfiod boll criloria. In llo yoar boforo lloir lran-
silions, zoro counlrios lad boon ralod as froo, nino voro parlIy froo, and
nino voro nol froo. Aflor llo lransilion, sovonloon (94 porconl) of llo
counlrios voro froo, ono vas parlIy froo, and lloro vas no nol-froo coun-
lry. Transilion counlrios in vlicl llo lvo criloria voro prosonl in llo
lvo yoars boforo llo poIilicaI oponing aIso sav lloir posl-lransilion scoro
improvo from an avorago of 5.47 lo 1.53, a gain of 3.94 poinls on a sovon-
poinl Iroodom Houso scaIo, vlicl is a dramalicaIIy posilivo offocl.
Ukraino´s lransilion vas Iod by a nonvioIonl broad-basod civic-
poIilicaI coaIilion and occurrod in condilions of nonvioIonco. Tlus llo
ovidonco of roconl lislory suggosls llal llo courso consciousIy lakon by
Ukraino´s Orango opposilion in ils marcl lo povor vas aIso llo oplimaI
courso for socuring a durabIo domocracy in llo Iong lorm. Tlis is por-
laps llo mosl imporlanl Iogacy of llo Ioadors of llo Orango RovoIulion
and ils parlicipanls.
In llo moanlimo, oplimislic prognosos nolvillslanding, Ukraino´s
Orango opposilion nov confronls llo compIox and difficuIl claIIongos
of socuring domocracy, combaling crimo and corruplion, roinforcing llo
ruIo of Iav, and slronglloning oconomic grovll.

1. Tlo Orango RovoIulion vas sloorod by llo Commilloo of NalionaI SaIvalion, vlicl
comprisod a vido array of poIilicaI parlios, civic organizalions, and IocaI aullorilios.
Aflor llo lriumpl of llo civic nonvioIonl prolosls of Novombor and Docombor 2004,
novIy oIoclod prosidonl Yuslclonko pul in pIaco a coaIilion govornmonl llal incIudod
llo foIIoving roprosonlalivo poIilicaI parlios and bIocs: llo Our Ukraino bIoc and ils
parlnors: llo Roform and Ordor Iarly, llo Rukl Iarly, and llo Ukrainian NalionaI
Iarly, llo YuIia Tymoslonko bIoc, llo SociaIisl Iarly, and llo Iarly of InduslriaIisls
and Inlropronours.
2. Soo ¨Hov Iroodom Is Won: Irom Civic Rosislanco lo DurabIo Domocracy,¨
chapter three
Everyday Ukrainians and the
Orange Revolution
taras kuzio
in the four years Ioading up lo Ukraino´s 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclions,
llo counlry sufforod from an aculo poIilicaI crisis llal lad bogun in No-
vombor 2000 vlon llo Kuclmagalo crisis bogan. Il cuIminalod oxaclIy
four yoars Ialor vill llo Orango RovoIulion. Tlo crisis vas rovoaIod in
Iov lrusl in slalo inslilulions, Iov popuIarily for Irosidonl Ioonid
Kuclma and ligl supporl for lis impoaclmonl, a groving guIf bolvoon
llo ruIing oIilo and socioly, loigllonod opposilion aclivily in llo slrools
and in parIiamonl, and inlornalionaI isoIalion. Sovonly-lvo porconl of
Ukrainians vanlod Kuclma lo Ioavo offico oarIy, and 53 porconl sup-
porlod lis impoaclmonl.
Tlis vas llo backdrop lo llo ovonls llal unfurIod in llo Iasl lvo
monlls of 2004. Ukraino´s ruIing oIilo lad boon Iiving in a vorId sopa-
ralo from socioly. In llal vorId, lloy voro forcod lo doaI vill Ukrai-
nian cilizons onIy poriodicaIIy, in prosidonliaI and parIiamonlary oIoc-
lions. As lloy lad dono in llo formor Soviol Union, lloy lad boon
roasonabIy succossfuI in doaIing vill llo oIoclions in 1998 and 1999 by
manipuIaling llom. In 2002, lovovor, lloy lad lloir firsl slock vlon
llo opposilion von conlroI of laIf of llo parIiamonlary soals. Viklor
Yuslclonko´s Our Ukraino parly croalod llo Iargosl faclion aflor llo
oIoclions, vlicl vas llo firsl limo llo Communisls lad boon puslod
inlo socond pIaco.
46 taras kuzio
MobiIizing llo opposilion vas imporlanl bul insufficionl in a coun-
lry vloro llo rogimo vas proparod lo uso ovory moans avaiIabIo lo
provonl Yuslclonko´s viclory. During mosl of llo 2004 oIoclion cam-
paign, from }uIy onvard, llo popuIar mood vas llal Yuslclonko vas
IikoIy lo vin bul llal llo aullorilios vouId novorlloIoss docIaro lloir
candidalo prosidonl. During llo oIoclions, llo porlion of lloso vlo
boIiovod Yuslclonko vouId vin grov from 19 lo 45 porconl, vliIo
llo porlion of lloso vlo llougll Yanukovycl couId vin docIinod by
23 porconl.
IoIIoving llo oIoclion vioIalions of 2002, onIy 20 porconl of Ukraini-
ans lruslod llo aullorilios lo loId froo and fair oIoclions in 2004, and
58 porconl boIiovod llal oIoclions vouId nol bo froo or fair.
Tlis viov
vas roinforcod by llo ApriI 2004 mayoraI oIoclions in Mukaclovo vlon
llo Our Ukraino candidalo von, bul llo aullorilios´ candidalo vas do-
cIarod llo duIy oIoclod mayor. Yuslclonko al llo limo prodiclod llal
llo oIoclion vouId bo a ¨ropolilion of llal vlicl couId lako pIaco in
Oclobor if llo Mukaclovo quoslion is Iofl villoul an adoqualo roaclion
from [Ukrainianj socioly and llo vorId.¨ Tlo aullorilios lad ¨domon-
slralod aII lloir loclnoIogios llal lloy [voroj viIIing lo uso in llo (prosi-
donliaI) oIoclion.¨
Tlis mood graduaIIy clangod during llo Iong oIoclion campaign
bocauso of llroo faclors. Iirsl, Yuslclonko limsoIf bocamo a radicaI af-
lor lo vas poisonod in Soplombor. Tlo acl of poisoning Yuslclonko in
ilsoIf vas a sign llal llo aullorilios vouId nol Iol llo opposilion vin.
Socond, llo aullorilios voro forcod lo concodo a narrov Yuslclonko
viclory in round ono. Tlis clangod llo mood lo ono of ¨Ho can do il!¨
and Iod lo fonco silling by slalo officiaIs vlo proviousIy lad boon or-
dorod lo back Viklor Yanukovycl. Tlird, aflor round ono, many volors
sav llo laIling of llo oIoclion of Yanukovycl as of oquaI imporlanco as
llo oIoclion of Yuslclonko.
IoIIs conduclod boforo oIoclion day slovod llal Ukrainian socioly
vas roady lo prolosl in llo slrools againsl oIoclion fraud. Iiglly-four
porconl of Ukrainians agrood llal lloy lad a rigll lo prolosl pubIicIy in
llo ovonl of oIoclion fraud. OnIy 6 porconl disagrood.
Ixporls al llo Conlor for Iconomic and IoIilicaI Sludios of Ukraino,
knovn as llo Razumkov Conlor, caulionod llal nol aII favorabIo ro-
spondonls vouId aulomalicaIIy lil llo slrools lo prolosl. Al llo samo
limo, lloy varnod, ¨Il vouId bo naïvo lo lopo llal llo aullorilios couId
villoul Iimil discrodil llomsoIvos in llo oyos of lloir ovn popuIalion
villoul an oulcomo llal couId lurn oul lo bo falaI lo llomsoIvos.¨
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 47
Anollor poII conduclod by llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion and
llo Solsis Inslilulo found llal 18.1 porconl of Ukrainians voro roady lo
lako parl in prolosls againsl oIoclion fraud, as opposod lo boIioving lloy
lad a rigll lo do so, as in llo Razumkov Conlor poII. Somo 10.6 porconl
vouId slrongIy prolosl if lloir candidalo did nol vin llo oIoclion.
Tlo Ukrainian aullorilios varnod againsl sucl ¨rovoIulionary´¨ ac-
livilios vliIo ropoalodIy dismissing llo nolion llal Ukrainians vouId
foIIov Goorgia´s 2003 rovoIulion. Slalomonls by llo socurily forcos,
Yanukovycl, and Kuclma aII donouncod pIans for prolosls. Kuclma
badIy misjudgod llo popuIar mood vlon lo calogoricaIIy said on slalo
ClannoI 1 loIovision, on llo ovo of round lvo, llal lloro vouId bo no
rovoIulion in Ukraino. ¨Tlo aullorilios viII novor aIIov an aggrossivo
minorily lo diclalo poIilicaI Iogic,¨ Kuclma roiloralod, sinco rovoIulions
aro carriod oul by fanalics and llal ¨il is scoundroIs vlo roap llo bon-
UnIoss Kuclma vas avaro of upcoming pIans for oIoclion fraud,
il is uncIoar lov lo knov llal llo opposilion vouId Ioso llo oIoclion,
lloroby bocoming llo minorily, sinco Yuslclonko lad, aflor aII, von
round ono.
Tlo opposilion lopod lo drav upon ono lundrod llousand supporl-
ors as crovds approacling llis sizo lad boon mobiIizod in llo cam-
paign, bul lloy knov lloy noodod far moro poopIo lo bo succossfuI in
bIocking oIoclion fraud. UIlimaloIy, boll sidos miscaIcuIalod llo popu-
Iar mood, llo aullorilios´ arroganco and boIillIing of llo llo
poopIo÷as passivo subjocls provod lo bo as vrong as llo opposilion´s
undoroslimalion of llo doop clangos llal lad lakon pIaco in Ukrainian
socioly sinco 1991, coupIod vill a profound dosiro lo bo lroalod by lloir
ruIors as luman boings, llal is, as Iuropoan cilizons.
In llis claplor, I considor socioly´s viovs, inloraclions vill, and par-
licipalion in llo Orango RovoIulion from six porspoclivos. In llo firsl
soclion I survoy llo imporlanl roIo of llo four-yoar poIilicaI crisis as a
procursor lo and faciIilalor of llo rovoIulion. Noxl, I discuss lov llo
Orango RovoIulion diffors from lloso in Sorbia and Goorgia in llal
Ukraino lad a funclioning slalo and a slrong oconomy. Iconomic issuos
in llomsoIvos did nol pIay a significanl roIo in llo oIoclions. Novorllo-
Ioss, issuos indiroclIy roIalod lo oconomics, sucl as popuIarIy porcoivod
unjusl privalizalion, llo riso of llo oIigarcls, and corruplion oacl pIayod
a roIo.
Ollor faclors incIudo llo yavning guIf bolvoon llo ruIing oIilo and
llo popuIalion, vill llo aullorilios Iiving in a soparalo vorId, and
llo youll, vlo conslilulod mosl of llo parlicipanls in llo Orango
48 taras kuzio
RovoIulion, pIaying a cruciaI parl in llo oIoclions. Many young poopIo
voro poIilicizod and mobiIizod during llo Kuclmagalo crisis procod-
ing llo 2004 oIoclions. BoIov I discuss llo koy porsonaIilios in llo oIoc-
lions and llo mislako llo aullorilios mado in cloosing Yanukovycl as
lloir candidalo. IinaIIy, I Iook al vly llo Yuslclonko camp vas far
moro succossfuI in mobiIizing civiI socioly during llo Orango RovoIu-
lion llan lis oppononl, Yanukovycl, vas.
PnIiticaI Crisis as a PrequeI
Willoul a four-yoar poIilicaI crisis,
il is doublfuI llal lloro vouId lavo
boon a Yuslclonko viclory in oillor llo 2002 or 2004 oIoclions.
Kuclmagalo bogan in Novombor 2000 and ondod oxaclIy four yoars Ialor
during llo Orango RovoIulion. Yuriy Iulsonko, a ¨Ukraino villoul
Kuclma¨ and Orango RovoIulion aclivisl as voII as inlorior minislor
oxpIainod during llo ropoal volo of round lvo llal a ¨Ukraino villoul
Kuclma¨ vas nov ovor.
Tlo crisis gonoralod an inlornaI rovoIulion among Ukrainians, as anli-
Kuclma proloslor and youll aclivisl VoIodymyr Clomorys doscribod
llo silualion llal ovoIvod during llo Kuclmagalo crisis. Kuclma con-
linuod lo romain in povor bul in llo minds of Ukrainians, psycloIogi-
caIIy, lo lad aIroady Iofl offico.
Tlo aullorilios ignorod llo poopIo, vlo rociprocalod by ignoring llo
t|.!. (llo aullorilios). Tlis inlornaI rovoIulion vas cruciaI in bringing
oul llo Iargo numbors of Ukrainians in llo Orango RovoIulion vlo oll-
orviso vouId lavo conlinuod lo adloro lo llo provorb ¨Il´s nol my busi-
noss.¨ During and aflor round lvo of llo oIoclion, many lillorlo apo-
IilicaI Ukrainians joinod llo Yuslclonko camp and llo Orango
RovoIulion. Tlo 2004 Iurovision song vinnor, ¨RusIana,¨ llo KIilsclko
boxor brollors, and rock bands sucl as Okoan YoIzy aro ovidonco of llis
clango in alliludo.
Tlo crisis aIso slirrod young poopIo from lloir lradilionaI poIilicaI
apally in Ukraino and llo CommonvoaIll of Indopondonl Slalos (CIS).
Young aclivisls formod llo backbono of llo aclivily of nongovornmon-
laI organizalions (NGOs) in civiI socioly againsl corruplion (C|µsi.
u|r.in. [CIoan Ukrainoj), in oIoclion moniloring (Zn.µu!¹, and in radicaI
poIilicaI aclivily (Iora) groups. Iora rocoivod lraining and advico from
Sorbia´s Oipcr and Goorgia´s Km.r. youll aclivisl groups.
Tlo anli-
Kuclma prolosls of 2000÷2003 and llo 2002 oIoclions voro formalivo
for lloso young aclivisls. AIllougl oslonsibIy poIilicaIIy noulraI llo
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 49
youll londod lo sympallizo vill Yuslclonko. CaIIs for froo and fair
oIoclions voro in Yuslclonko´s inlorosl as lloy vouId aulomalicaIIy
bonofil lim ovor Yanukovycl.
Ecnnnmy, Cnrruptinn, and OIigarchs
Iconomic issuos as sucl did nol pIay a major roIo in llo 2004 oIoclions,
if lloy lad, Yanukovycl may lavo von. Ukraino vas difforonl from
boll Sorbia and Goorgia in llal il lad a slrong slalo and a rapidIy grov-
ing oconomy, vill llo liglosl grovll ralo in Iuropo in 2004. Issuos
roIalod lo oconomics, sucl as popuIar porcoplions of unjusl privalizalions
and llo riso of Ukraino´s oIigarcl cIass, did pIay a roIo bocauso volors
Iookod al llo oIoclions as a roforondum on llo provious docado, nol from
llo slorl-lorm porspoclivo of lov good llo oconomy vas during llo
As MiclaoI McIauI poinls oul in llo concIusion, llo body of Iilora-
luro on domocralizalion slrossos lov oconomic crisos inovilabIy Ioad lo
gonoraI crisis in a rogimo and llo ouslor of llo ruIing oIilo. Tlo CIS provod
lo bo difforonl from llis norm. Sinco 1989 aII CIS (oxcopl in MoIdova
and BoIarus) lad sufforod an aculo oconomic doprossion, yol il did nol
Ioad lo counlorrovoIulions and a rolurn of Soviol and noo-Soviol groups
lo povor. Ukraino provod lo bo difforonl bocauso an aculo poIilicaI cri-
sis lad dominalod Ukrainian poIilics sinco llo faII of 2000. In addilion,
oconomic grovll vas nol boing foIl by llo popuIalion bul vas sliII bo-
ing IargoIy squandorod llrougl groving IovoIs of corruplion. Irom 1994
lo 2002, llo Iargosl infIuonco on socioly lad consislonlIy boon llo mafia
and organizod crimo, up from 34 lo 38 porconl.
Of Ukrainians, 77÷85 porconl vanlod clango and did nol back a con-
linualion of llo slalus quo.
On llo ovo of llo 2004 oIoclions, 55.7 por-
conl of Ukrainians did nol boIiovo llal Ukraino vas moving in llo rigll
In Ukraino al llal limo, il vouId lavo boon unroaIislic for
any incumbonl lo arguo in supporl of lis or lor anoinlod succossor con-
linuing llo slalus quo sinco mosl Ukrainians Iookod nogalivoIy al llo
1990s as a docado of llo ¨primilivo accumuIalion of capilaI¨ (¨bandil
capilaIism¨). Ukrainians vanlod clango. Tlo quoslion vas, vlal kind
of clango` Clango in Ukraino lad boon associalod vill
Yuslclonko and nol vill Yanukovycl.
Yuslclonko´s campaign vas
promisod on lis boing in opposilion lo llo ¨bandil rogimo,¨ vliIo Irimo
Minislor Yanukovycl dofondod lis govornmonl´s rocord and caIIod for
llo conlinualion of llo ¨succossfuI¨ poIicios undorlakon lo dalo by lim
50 taras kuzio
and Kuclma. Yanukovycl allomplod lo dislanco limsoIf quiolIy from
Kuclma and lo prosonl limsoIf as a clango candidalo, bul llo facl llal
lo vas Kuclma´s closon succossor doggod lim llrougloul rounds ono
and lvo. Il vas onIy in round llroo, vlon Yanukovycl foIl bolrayod by
llo Kyiv oIilo for nol laving foIIovod llrougl on llo pIan lo inslaII lim
as prosidonl, llal lo allomplod lo clango limsoIf inlo an opposilion
candidalo. By llon, lovovor, il provod lo bo loo Ialo. Ho couId nol clango
lis imago lo llal of an opposilionisl in llo ropoal of llo socond round
on Docombor 26. Indood, as Yuslclonko poinlod oul, lov couId a primo
minislor bo in opposilion`
Kuclma praisod llo Iaying of llo foundalion for a nalionaI oconomy
as lis acliovomonl, somolling lo roiloralod vlon lo vas firsl oIoclod
in 1994. Ukraino lad boon on llo vorgo of disaslor and possibIo disin-
logralion in 1993, vlicl lad boon a yoar of lyporinfIalion. Kuclma aIso
praisod llo oconomic grovll of llo provious four yoars as Iaying llo
basis for Irimo Minislor Yanukovycl´s oIoclion program.
Tloso cIaims ignorod a vilaI faclor in pubIic porcoplions of sociooco-
nomic condilions in Ukraino. Ukraino rolurnod lo oconomic grovll
undor Yuslclonko in 2000÷2001. IoIIs slovod llal, of Ukraino´s lon
primo minislors sinco 1991, lo vas rogardod as Ukraino´s mosl succoss-
fuI. Yuslclonko vas givon crodil for roIauncling oconomic grovll and
for ropaying vago and ponsion arroars.
Tlo samo vas nol lruo of Yanukovycl´s govornmonl. IopuIisl al-
lompls lo vin volos by incroasing ponsions and sludonl sliponds on llo
ovo of oIoclion day IargoIy backfirod as poIIs slovod llal mosl Ukrai-
nian volors undorslood llo movo lo bo an oIoclion laclic. Communisl
volors, vlo aro IargoIy ponsionors, vouId lavo dofoclod lo Yanukovycl
ovon villoul any ponsion liko. Tlo Yanukovycl oIoclion campaign fro-
quonlIy compIainod llal volors voro nci giving llom crodil for Ukraino´s
oconomic boom. In 2002, 81 porconl of Ukrainians pcrccitc! llal lloir
slandard of Iiving lad docIinod sinco 1990.
A yoar Ialor, 86 porconl sliII
boIiovod llal llo oconomic silualion vas vory bad or bad, vill onIy
9 porconl slaling il vas good. Rocord oconomic grovll vas nol donling
llis docado-Iong porcoplion of a poor oconomic silualion.
Tlo allompl lo allracl supporl for Yanukovycl basod on crodil for
ligl oconomic grovll provod insufficionl lo allracl Ukrainian volors.
AIllougl Ukraino´s oconomy lad Iuropo´s liglosl grovll ralo in 2004,
il faiIod lo improvo llo popuIarily of llo aullorilios significanlIy.
Tlo majorily of Ukrainian volors did nol boIiovo llal Ukraino vas load-
ing aIong llo rigll pall, a rosuIl of llo Iargo guIf bolvoon docIarod
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 51
objoclivos and roaIily. Ukrainians did nol fooI llal ligl oconomic grovll
lad lransIalod inlo a liglor slandard of Iiving. Iosilivo clangos, sucl
as oconomic grovll, lad occurrod dospilo govornmonl poIicios, nol bo-
causo of llom. Ukraino´s pubIic mood vas ono of nol boing llankfuI lo
llo aullorilios vliIo al llo samo limo oxpocling nolling. IubIic porcop-
lion of llo aullorilios as incompolonl, corrupl, and uninloroslod in llo
pIigll of llo avorago cilizon vas vidosproad, Ioading lo a Iack of faill
and lrusl in llo govornmonl.
In 2002, 73 porconl of Ukrainians foarod unompIoymonl, 71 porconl
foarod a riso in pricos, 65 porconl foarod llo nonpaymonl of vagos, and
51 porconl vorriod aboul famino.
Tlo parIiamonlary ombudsman for
luman riglls oslimalod llal 5.7 miIIion Ukrainians lad boon forcod lo
sook vork abroad. In addilion, llo Ukrainian popuIalion lad slrunk by
5 miIIion, a domograplic disaslor foIIoving 7 miIIion doalls in llo 1933
arlificiaI famino (SlaIin´s campaign of mass slarvalion) and 6 miIIion in
WorId War II.
Tlo lugo sociaI consoquoncos of llo pasl docado´s lransilion voro
foIl by mosl Ukrainians, mosl of vlom lad famiIy mombors vorking
abroad or vlo lad omigralod. Opinion poIIs on llo ovo of llo oIoclions
slovod llal a llird of young Ukrainians voro roady lo Ioavo Ukraino,
an oxodus llal vouId lavo lakon pIaco in llo ovonl of a Yanukovycl
viclory. Ukrainians conslilulod, aIong vill Russians, Indians, and Af-
glans, ono of llo four nalionaI groups llal mado up llo groalosl num-
bor of migranls in llo vorId. Bolvoon 2002 and 2004, ono-llird of Ukrai-
nians vanlod lo omigralo.
Iong-lorm lronds associalod vill llo 1990s aIso provod probIomalic
for llo aullorilios. Tvo aroas llal voro imporlanl in slaping sociaI alli-
ludos in an oIoclion yoar voro llo grovll of oIigarcls and vidosproad,
ligl-IovoI corruplion. Irivalizalion vas pubIicIy boIiovod lo lavo bon-
ofilod onIy a smaII group of formor Soviol ncmcn||.iur. vlo voro ac-
counlabIo lo no ono.
IarIiamonlary spoakor VoIodymyr Iylvyn loId a congross of lis
Agrarian Iarly, vlicl officiaIIy backod Yanukovycl bul in roaIily sal
TabIe 3.1. Percentage nI Ecnnnmic Grnwth Rates in Ukraine,
Yc.r 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
GDI grovll 5.9 9.2 5.2 9.4 12.1
Scurcc. InlornalionaI Conlro for IoIicy Sludios, |ccncmic Si.iisiics, }uno 2005.

52 taras kuzio
on llo fonco, llal ¨Ukraino is cIoso lo bocoming a lolaIIy corrupl coun-
lry ruIod by oIigarcls and parly-cIan groups.¨
Mosl Ukrainians bo-
Iiovod llal llo ¨mafia and organizod crimo vorId¨ vas llo mosl infIu-
onliaI group in socioly.
In Yanukovycl´s firsl spoocl as a candidalo lo aIso, Iiko Iylvyn, do-
nouncod llo Iack of impacl of counlIoss docroos and programs lo figll
corruplion in Ukraino. As a candidalo, Yanukovycl lad IillIo cloico bul
lo condomn corruplion, bul llal did nol moan llal mosl Ukrainians
boIiovod lo vouId do anylling aboul llo probIom voro lo lo bo oIoclod.
Tlo ruIing oIilo lad aIroady sufforod from an idonlily crisis common
lo aII oIigarcls in llo CIS vlo lad omorgod in llo 1990s. Ukrainians
porcoivod llo accumuIalod voaIll of oIigarcls as iIIogilimalo, lakon al
llo oxponso of llo poopIo and llo slalo. Tlo aullorilios praisod llo riso
of a ¨pragmalic and palriolic¨ ¨nalionaI bourgooisio¨ llal lad aIIog-
odIy como lo roaIizo llal llo ora of ¨viId capilaIism¨ vas ovor vill llo
ond of llo Kuclma ora.
Tloy lloroforo unsuccossfuIIy allomplod lo
projocl llo viov llal a Yanukovycl viclory vouId moan a rolurn lo
llo 1990s and vouId insload signaI llo omorgonco of a nov oIilo con-
scious of ils duly lo llo cilizons and llo slalo.
Tlis promiso vouId lavo boon roadiIy accoplod by socioly if llo au-
llorilios´ candidalo lad boon Sorliy Tylipko, Iylvyn, or ovon Viklor
Iincluk, vlo lad sougll lo gonlrify limsoIf and divorco poIilics and
businoss. Yol llo promiso did nol vasl vill Yanukovycl. Dospilo lis
criminaI background, Yanukovycl vas closon bocauso lo lad provod
lis IoyaIly lo Kuclma in llo 2002 oIoclions vlon lo, as llo govornor of
Donolsk, lad onsurod llo Ior a Unilod Ukraino bIoc camo firsl vill
37 porconl, llo onIy obIasl vloro il did so. Yanukovycl lad aIso bo-
como llo candidalo by dofauIl bocauso ollor conlrisls (llal is,
Modvodcluk, Iylvyn, and Tylipko) and Kuclma limsoIf÷vlom llo
conslilulionaI courl lad pormillod lo run in llo 2004 oIoclions, cIaiming
llal lis firsl lorm did nol counl bocauso il lad bogun boforo llo 1996
conslilulion vas adoplod÷aII lad vory Iov ralings in opinion poIIs of
Ioss llan 5 porconl.
Yanukovycl couId nol vin using posilivo argumonls aboul lis can-
didacy. Ho vas lamporod by boing associalod vill Kuclma, and lo
faiIod lo convinco mosl volors llal lo slouId bo givon crodil for oco-
nomic grovll. Tlis Iofl llo Yanukovycl campaign and ils Russian po-
IilicaI advisors vill IillIo oplion bul lo roIy on a Iargo voIumo of noga-
livo modia allacks againsl Yuslclonko as a ¨Nazi,¨ a ¨nalionaIisl,¨ and
an ¨Amorican puppol.¨ Mucl of llis anli-Amorican and anlinalionaIisl
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 53
propaganda rosombIod Soviol-ora donuncialions againsl ¨bourgoois
nalionaIism¨ llal lad largolod Ukrainian diaspora and dissidonl groups.
Tlo viIificalion of Yuslclonko undoublodIy donlod lis supporl in oasl-
orn Ukraino by making lim a nogalivo ¨ollor¨ candidalo for
¨Russoplonos¨ and communisl volors. Many of Yanukovycl´s volors
joinod lim in llo Iasl fov monlls of llo campaign, convincod by sucl
campaign rloloric.
Sucl anli-Yuslclonko propaganda undoublodIy affoclod Commu-
nisl and Rogions of Ukraino volors mosl, boll of vlom aro loaviIy con-
conlralod in llo Donbas (Donolsk and Iulansk obIasls) and llo Crimoa.
Yuslclonko´s Our Ukraino lad faiIod lo cross llo 4 porconl llrosloId
in llo 2002 oIoclions in Donbas and SovaslopoI. Mosl of llo 20 porconl
Communisl volo oblainod in llo 2002 oIoclions vonl lo Yanukovycl
oarIy in round ono of llo oIoclions, as soon in Communisl Ioador Iolro
Symononko, vlo camo in fourll, vill onIy 4.5 porconl. In round lvo
and llo ropoal volo, llo communisls lad rofusod lo ondorso oillor of
llo lvo candidalos officiaIIy. NovorlloIoss, aII of llis lradilionaI 20 por-
conl Communisl volo probabIy vonl for Yanukovycl, accounling for
laIf of llo volos for lim.
Razumkov Conlor anaIysls ruIod oul llo viov llal oIigarcls couId
supporl llo ruIo of Iav, civiI socioly, Iuropoan vaIuos, or domocraliza-
lion. ¨OIigarcls, by lloir vory naluro, aro incompalibIo vill domocrali-
zalion and aro nol infIuoncod by sociolaI inlorosls,¨ lloy arguod. Tloir
soIo purposo vas lo onricl llomsoIvos vill llo assislanco of llo slalo. Il
vouId bo naïvo, poIicy makors poIIod by llo Razumkov Conlor con-
cIudod, lo boIiovo llal Ukraino´s oIigarcls supporlod lransilion lo domo-
cralic ruIo aflor lloy lad arrivod al llo concIusion llal bandil capilaI-
ism vas nov ovor.
The RuIing EIite in Its 5eparate ReaIity
By llo 2004 oIoclions, Ukraino´s ruIing oIilo vas oul of loucl vill roaI-
ily. Sovonly porconl of Ukrainians foIl lloy lad no infIuonco on llo au-
llorilios, and 92 porconl foIl llal lloir luman riglls voro roguIarIy bo-
ing infringod. During llo oIoclions 10 porconl of Yuslclonko volors voro
afraid of rovoaIing lloir proforoncos, comparod vill onIy 2 porconl of
Yanukovycl volors. In somo rogions of Ukraino, 70 porconl voro afraid
lo ansvor opinion poIIs.
Tlo majorily of Ukrainians Iivod a Iifo sopa-
ralo from lloso of lloir ruIors. Kyiv MolyIa poIilicaI scionlisl RoslysIav
IavIonko found llal ¨cilizons lavo llo roIo of slalislics÷[boingj oillor
54 taras kuzio
Iisloning consumors of manipuIalod programs or boing inundalod vill
|cmprcm.i, or brazon Iios.¨
Aflor Modvodcluk bocamo llo load of llo prosidonliaI adminislra-
lion, aIlornalivo clannoIs of informalion lo Kuclma voro bIockod.
Kuclma´s officiaI slalomonls, inlorviovs, and spooclos during llo six-
monll oIoclion campaign, vloro lo ropoalodIy ¨guaranlood¨ froo oIoc-
lions and condomnod allompls al inciling inlorrogionaI spIils, voro lloso
of somoono vlo vas cul off from llo daiIy roaIily of llo dirly laclics
llal voro boing usod by |is sido. As llo Yuslclonko camp arguod and
Ukrainian volors foIl, il vas as llougl llo Ukrainian conslilulion lad
boon suspondod during llo oIoclions.
Iiving in a soparalo roaIily romovod from llo Iivos of ordinary cili-
zons Iod lo orronoous poIicy docisions. Ukraino´s ruIing oIilo sovoroIy
misjudgod llo mood of socioly. Il ropoalodIy ruIod oul a Goorgian-slyIo
rovoIulion, cIaiming llal Ukrainians voro nol Goorgians bocauso lloy
aro moro passivo, Ioss lol-loadod, and viIIing lo accopl falo. Tlis na-
lionaI claraclor vas nicoIy summod up in llo provorb Mcj. ||.i. z |r.ju
(IiloraIIy ¨My louso is on llo sido¨ bul roaIIy moaning ¨Il´s nol my busi-
noss¨). Tloso viovs of passivo Ukrainians by llo ruIing oIilo voro com-
poundod by llroo ollor faclors.
Tlo firsl faclor vas a Soviol-slyIo disrospocl for Ukrainians as sub-
jocls vlo voro oasiIy moIdod lo llo vlims of llo aullorilios. Tlis viov
may lavo boon loId in llo Donolsk rogion, vlicl is dominalod by ono
parly (llo Rogions Iarly), ono oIigarcl (Rinal Aklmolov), and ono loIo-
vision slalion (TRK Ukraina). Il vas nol lruo of llo romaindor of llo
counlry. Orango RovoIulionary songs ropoalodIy condomnod llo au-
llorilios´ viov of llo Ukrainian pubIic as oµ!|c (scum) or |cz|µ (baslards),
llo Iallor lorm boing from Yanukovycl´s dopiclion of lis oppononls.
Tlo Orango RovoIulion´s lip-lop anllom by llo Ivano-Irankivsk band
Hr.n!zc|µ (SIoigl), vlicl vas Ukraino´s onlry in llo 2005 Iurovision
song compolilion in Kyiv, slalod calogoricaIIy llal ¨Wo aro nol oµ!|c!
Wo aro nol |cz|µ! Wo aro Ukraino´s sons and daugllors!¨ Tlo Orango
RovoIulion domandod llal llo aullorilios lroal Ukrainians as cilizons÷
nol as oµ!|c or |cz|µ÷vloroby llo slalo vouId sorvo cilizons, as in Iu-
ropo, and nol as subjocls sorving llo slalo (as in llo CIS and formor
Socond vas llo arroganco of llo oIilo, vlicl vas liod lo ils conlompl
for llo poopIo. Iormor Irosidonl Ioonid Kravcluk boIiovod llal ¨llo
popuIalion viII boIiovo ovory Iino lloy aro boing fod.¨
llis vouId aIso appIy lo llo rogimo onforcing a faIsifiod rosuIl llal oIoclod
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 55
Yanukovycl as prosidonl. Ukraino´s ruIing oIilo novor onvisagod llal
lloy couId ovor Ioso llo oIoclions. Tlo slock of facing an Orango Rovo-
Iulion, volos by parIiamonl and Rada donouncing llo socond round,
and a IikoIy Yuslclonko viclory in llo ropoal volo on Docombor 26 Iod
lo llo disinlogralion of llo conlrisl camp. Iarlios in povor, by lloir vory
naluro, aro nol abIo lo bocomo llo opposilion.
Tlo llird faclor vas conlompl for llo opposilion´s abiIily lo pul poopIo
in llo slrools. Tlo ¨Ukraino villoul Kuclma!¨ and ¨Ariso, Ukraino!¨
prolosls of 2000÷2003 allraclod lvonly lo fifly llousand parlicipanls.
Sucl numbors voro insufficionl lo romovo Kuclma from povor and
vouId lavo boon ovon Ioss sufficionl lo faciIilalo a rovoIulion. Kuclma
ridicuIod llo opposilion´s prodiclion llal lloy vouId pul lvo lundrod
llousand proloslors in llo slrools. His ridicuIo backfirod aflor round
lvo vlon llo crovds poakod al ono miIIion.
Kuclma´s conlompl for llo opposilion, llo arroganco of llo oIilo, and
lis disrospocl for llo poopIo Iod lo llo govornmonl´s biggosl bIundor: a
Iack of pIanning lo bIock llo movomonl of llo proloslors in llo lvo days
immodialoIy foIIoving round lvo of llo oIoclions (Novombor 22÷23), vlon
llo Orango RovoIulion couId lavo, oslonsibIy, boon nippod in llo bud.
Insload, Kyiv´s rosidonls and lard-coro aclivisls look lo llo slrools on
Monday (Novombor 22). Boginning on Tuosday, Novombor 23, lloy voro
joinod by ollors from llo provincos, parlicuIarIy by voslorn Ukrainians.
Kuclma vas aIso praisod by lis aIIios for lis roIo in slalo buiIding,
incIuding llo adoplion of Ukraino´s 1996 conslilulion. Wlal llis praiso
faiIod lo acknovIodgo, lovovor, vas llal Ukraino´s somiprosidonliaI
conslilulionaI syslom lad boon parIiamonl´s compromiso. Kuclma´s 1996
drafl of llo conslilulion, vlicl lo llroalonod lo pul lo a roforondum,
vouId lavo croalod a ¨suporprosidonliaI syslom.¨ Il aIso ignorod llo
disaslrous pubIic viov of slalo inslilulions. Aflor aII, vlal vouId lavo
boon llo poinl of llo omorgonco of sucl inslilulions if lloy lad no pub-
Iic supporl`
By llo 2004 oIoclions, lrusl in slalo inslilulions vas Iov. In facl, llo
pubIic´s lrusl in slalo inslilulions vas Iovor llan for aslroIogors, ac-
cording lo a survoy by llo Acadomy of Scionco´s Inslilulo of SocioIogy.
Sixloon porconl of Ukrainians lruslod aslroIogors, vliIo onIy 13 porconl
lruslod llo prosidonl. Iifly-fivo porconl of Ukrainians said lloy vouId
novor volo for Kuclma, and a liglor numbor said lloy vouId Iiko lo
soo lim impoaclod. By llo ovo of llo 2004 oIoclions, llo aullorilios voro
nol lruslod, nol rospoclod, nol boIiovod, Iackod Iogilimacy, and Iivod
soparalo Iivos from llo Iivos from llo poopIo.
56 taras kuzio
The Energy nI Ynuth
Young Ukrainians born in llo 1980s grov up in llo 1990s. Tloy aro nol
afraid of llo aullorilios in llo samo mannor as lloir oIdors, vlo oxpori-
oncod Soviol ruIo. Tloy Iook voslvard, nol norlloasl, for cuIluro, mu-
sic, faslion, and inloIIocluaI inspiralion. Tloy lavo lravoIod as lourisls,
iIIogaI vorkors, and vill sludonl oxclango programs lo llo Wosl rallor
llan lo llo CIS. IdooIogicaIIy, lloy vanl Ukraino lo bo parl of Iuropo.
Tlo Kuclmagalo crisis slirrod young poopIo lo movo from poIilicaI
apally lo poIilicaI aclivism. Tlo llroal of Yanukovycl coming lo povor,
vlicl vouId lavo undorminod lloir vision of Ukraino´s Iuropoan fu-
luro, sparkod llom inlo pulling aII lloir onorgy inlo oIoclion aclivily
and inlo llo Orango RovoIulion, vloro lloy roprosonlod upvard of lvo-
llirds of llo parlicipanls.
Tlo caricaluring of Yanukovycl did mucl lo undormino lis popu-
Iarily among young Ukrainians, vlo voro invoIvod in civiI socioly, oIoc-
lion projocls, and radicaI youll groups.
Tlo youlls voro aIso abIo lo lako advanlago of modorn communica-
lion mollods lo a far groalor oxlonl llan voro ollor sogmonls of Ukrai-
nian socioly. Tlo Yanukovycl camp faiIod lo approcialo llo imporlanco
of Woslorn pubIic opinion, pubIisling onIy ono op-od pioco in W.|| Sircci
jcurn.| |urcpc, comparod vill numorous submissions by Yuslclonko.
Iargo loIovision scroons voro usod on llo Maidan lo broadcasl lo
Iargo crovds vlal vas boing said by spoakors on slago, as voII as im-
porlanl novs from ClannoI 5. Tlo impacl of lloso broadcasls on Clan-
noI 5´s popuIarily vas lugo. During llo Orango RovoIulion, ils ralings
incroasod from vory Iov (oving lo ils boing a cabIo clannoI llal vas nol
pormillod lo broadcasl in somo rogions, sucl as Donolsk) lo llird pIaco.
In Ukraino young poopIo voro oxporls vill coII plonos, vlicl voro
oxlonsivoIy usod. Somo coII plonos aIso lavo vidoo camoras, vlicl voro
usod by sludonls lo vidoo unsuspocling profossors iIIogaIIy agilaling for
Yanukovycl during cIass.
Young poopIo voro aIso oxporl in using llo povor of llo Inlornol lo
communicalo vill ono anollor and as an informalion sourco.
usago lad grovn sinco 2000 in Ukraino and lad ospociaIIy como inlo ils
ovn in llo 2002 and 2004 oIoclions.
Tlo aullorilios lad novor approci-
alod llo povor of llo Inlornol and lad novor boon abIo lo compolo in
Inlornol pubIicalions. Tlo Inlornol providod an aIlornalivo lo slalo and
privalo loIovision slalions, vlicl voro losliIo lo llo opposilion. Sixly-
oigll porconl of Ukrainians boIiovod lloro vas poIilicaI consorslip in
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 57
Ukraino, parlicuIarIy on loIovision, vlicl vas lruslod by onIy 21 por-
conl of llo poopIo.
Tlo llroal lo llo aullorilios from young poopIo couId bo soon on llo
ovo of llo firsl round of oIoclions vlon lloy accusod NGOs of boing
lorrorisls aflor llo aullorilios cIumsiIy pIanlod oxpIosivos in NGO of-
ficos. A simiIar laclic vas usod in Sorbia in llo 2000 oIoclions againsl
Olpor. In boll casos llo accusalions backfirod. Noillor llo Sorbian nor
llo Ukrainian pubIic boIiovod llo aullorilios vlon lloy accusod ¨young
kids¨ of boing lorrorisls. Socurily sorvico officors privaloIy communi-
calod lo NGO Ioadors llal llo oporalion lad nolling lo do vill llom
bul vas ono ordorod by llo oxoculivo offico and impIomonlod by llo
inlorior minislry. Tloso accusalions of lorrorism simpIy incroasod pub-
Iic allonlion upon llo NGOs and Iod lo an infIux of nov voIunloors.
PersnnaIities and Humnr
Ior llo succoss of llo Orango RovoIulion lo bo acliovod, lvo lypos of
candidalos voro noodod lo faco oacl ollor in llo socond round. Tlo
cloico bolvoon Yuslclonko and Yanukovycl in round lvo vas for
many Ukrainians a slark cloico of good vorsus oviI.
A ¨cIoan,¨ clarismalic candidalo is an assol for llo opposilion bo-
causo lo or slo can lako llo ligl moraI ground. Viklor Yuslclonko fil
llal roquiromonl porfoclIy. Ho did nol lavo a corrupl background, and
lo lad sorvod as a succossfuI clair of Ukraino´s conlraI bank and as
primo minislor.
Yuslclonko´s oppononl idoaIIy slouId bo somoono vlom llo oppo-
silion vouId find il oasy lo mobiIizo againsl. Yanukovycl fil llo biII
porfoclIy bocauso of lis criminaI rocord (of lvo sonloncos), lis origins in
Ukraino´s mosl criminaIizod rogion (Donolsk), and llo vidosproad por-
coplion llal lo vas inloIIocluaIIy claIIongod.
Yanukovycl´s criminaI rocord damagod lis supporl in llo socurily
forcos. MiIilary, inlorior minislry, and socurily sorvico officors found il
incrodibIo llal lloir noxl prosidonl and commandor-in-cliof couId bo
an ox-convicl. Tlis undormining of supporl may lavo boon a conlribul-
ing faclor in llo socurily forcos oillor dofocling or slaying noulraI dur-
ing llo 2004 oIoclions and Orango RovoIulion. Tlo socurily sorvico dis-
Iikod Yanukovycl as a candidalo and iIIicilIy lapod lis unofficiaI (dirly
lricks) campaign loadquarlors.
Tlo audio lapos voro landod lo llo
Yuslclonko camp aflor round lvo.
58 taras kuzio
Young poopIo voro parlicuIarIy good al lurning Yanukovycl´s fIavs
inlo lumor. On vookonds, Kyiv´s main llorouglfaro, Klroslclalyk, is
cIosod lo lraffic, making il an idoaI Iocalion for oIoclion campaigning.
Young Iora! and Znayu! aclivisls drossod in prison uniforms and cam-
paignod on bolaIf of Yanukovycl. Tloy bocamo a roguIar lourisl spoc-
lacIo allracling Kyivilos and lourisls aIiko, vlo voro oncouragod lo bo-
Iiovo llal prisonors lad boon Iol oul for llo vookond lo campaign for
ono of lloir ovn. On occasion, lloy ¨campaignod¨ noxl lo llo officiaI
Yanukovycl oIoclion bus.
Tlis lumorous imago sproad. A carloon prinlod for llo ropoal oIoc-
lion in llo mass-circuIalion novspapor Si|s|i tisii (Docombor 23, 2004),
a novspapor sympallolic lo llo SociaIisl Iarly, slovod lvo prison
guards laIking lo oacl ollor oulsido an omply prison coII. Ono asks llo
ollor, ¨Wloro aro llo brollors [as in criminaI brollorloodj`¨ Tlo foI-
Iov officor ropIiod, ¨Don´l vorry. Tloy viII soon rolurn. Tloy lavo jusl
gono oul lo campaign for lloir ovn . . .¨ (namoIy, Yanukovycl). An-
ollor commonIy loard anocdolo askod vly roIalions in prison lad im-
provod roconlIy. Tlo ansvor: bocauso oacl prisonor is concornod llal
lis or lor noiglbor couId bo llo noxl prosidonl.
Tlo idoa of Yanukovycl boing inloIIocluaIIy claIIongod Iod lo llo
omorgonco of an onliro subcuIluro in llo opposilion campaign. Will
oducalod Ukrainians, sludonls, and inloIIocluaIs londing lo favor
Yuslclonko ovor Yanukovycl, il is nol surprising llal Yanukovycl
bocamo llo bull of jokos. MiklaiI Brodsky and YuIia Tymoslonko lavo
nov admillod llal lloy voro bolind many of lloso jokos.
On llo ovo
of llo ropoal volo of round lvo, a book of Y.nu|!cic (anocdolos aboul
Yanukovycl) vas pubIislod in Kyiv.
Tlis lumorous subcuIluro look off in Soplombor 2004 aflor
Yanukovycl´s visil lo Ivano-Irankivsk. During llo visil lo vas lil by an
ogg llrovn by a sludonl. Ho Iookod al llo ogg and llon foII ovor, appar-
onlIy in agony. Tlo onliro opisodo vas broadcasl by opposilion clannoIs,
vlicl undorminod llo govornmonl´s cIaim llal Yanukovycl lad, in facl,
boon lil by a brick. Tlis allompl lo drav pubIicily avay from llo poison-
ing of Yuslclonko oarIior in llo monll backfirod compIoloIy.
ToIovision, and llon llo Inlornol, bogan lo ridicuIo llo ovonl: lov
couId llo Iargo, lougl-Iooking Yanukovycl bo knockod ovor by a smaII
ogg` Wobsilos bogan lo appoar llal incIudod a rapidIy groving numbor
of ogg jokos. Tloro voro sorios of ogg carloons, incIuding ¨Morry
Iggs¨(Vcsc|i µ.µis.¹, in vlicl lvo funny oggs sing songs and joko.
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 59
Yanukovycl´s inloIIocluaI abiIily vas aIso ridicuIod bocauso of lis
froquonl uso of criminaI sIang and lis iIIiloracy. Numorous spoIIing and
grammalicaI mislakos voro found in lis candidalo-rogislralion docu-
monls. Ono parlicuIar mislako (signing lis namo ¨Iroffossor¨) camo lo
launl lim llrougloul llo oIoclions. A llirloon-opisodo Inlornol fiIm
(¨Oporalion IroIIossor¨) vas producod. Il comprisod oxcorpls of popu-
Iar Soviol comodios porformod by imporsonalors of voII-knovn poIili-
cians dubbing llo voicos of llo claraclors. Tlo sorios vas a massivo lil
Yanukovycl´s vifo rocoivod llo samo lroalmonl. During llo soparal-
isl congross loId on Novombor 28 aflor round lvo, slo accusod llo or-
ganizors of llo Yuslclonko lonl cily of dislribuling orangos injoclod vill
narcolics lo forco proloslors lo slay lloro. Slo aIso cIaimod llal
(knoo-ligl vinlor bools) lad boon sonl froo of clargo from llo Unilod
Slalos, a linl llal llo CIA vas bolind llo Orango RovoIulion. SaliricaI
songs immodialoIy appoarod llal pourod ridicuIo on lloso cIaims by in-
lorIacing lor commonls vill ollor vords. Tlo lonl cily bogan lo lang
up vill llo vords ¨Mado in USA¨ scravIod on llom.
As a succossor candidalo, Yanukovycl´s bid for oIoclion carriod vill
il baggago from a docado of Kuclma in offico and llroo yoars of llo
Kuclmagalo crisis. As Yuslclonko poinlod oul, and as lis supporlors
undoublodIy boIiovod, Yanukovycl roprosonlod boll a conlinualion and
an onlronclmonl of llo slalus quo as ¨Kuclma-3.¨
As parIiamonlary spoakor and load of llo IoopIo´s Agrarian Iarly
Iylvyn poinlod oul, il migll lavo boon bollor if Yanukovycl voro a
soIf-docIarod candidalo rallor llan llo govornmonl´s candidalo as
Tlo aullorilios lad vory Iov popuIarily ralings, and
any associalion vill Kuclma vouId nogalivoIy infIuonco a candidalo´s
Groal losliIily lovard llo aullorilios mado il impossibIo for Com-
munisl Iarly Ioador Iolro Symononko lo adviso lis volors lo back
Yanukovycl in round lvo. By oIoclion day, aflor monlls of an incos-
sanl modia barrago againsl Yuslclonko dopicling lim as a fascisl and
Amorican sloogo, llo majorily of Communisl volors volod for
Yanukovycl (vlicl vas roaIIy a volo againsl Yuslclonko) in round
ono, pulling Symononko in fourll posilion. Tlis faclor, logollor vill
SociaIisl Iarly Ioador Moroz´s backing for Yuslclonko in round lvo,
providod Yanukovycl vill no addilionaI Iofl-ving supporl lo drav
upon in llo socond round, pIacing lim al a disadvanlago comparod
vill Kuclma in 1994, vlo drov on Iofl-ving volos.
60 taras kuzio
In llal round, volors of llo Iofl and llo rigll vlo did nol Iiko llo
govornmonl lad an oasy cloico: lo volo for llo aullorilios (Yanukovycl)
or a candidalo opposod lo llo govornmonl (Yuslclonko). Il is llal fac-
lor llal mado llo 2004 oIoclions difforonl from lloso in 1994 (vlicl vas
a cloico bolvoon lvo branclos of llo parly of povor, Kravcluk and
Kuclma) and 1999 (Kuclma vorsus llo Communisls).
IubIic losliIily lo llo oIigarcls vas ligl, and Yuslclonko capilaIizod
on llal losliIily. A Razumkov Conlor poII found llal 67 porconl of Ukrai-
nians supporlod movos againsl llo oIigarcls.
Il is IillIo vondor llal
Ukraino´s oIigarcls lid from llo IimoIigll. OnIy Modvodcluk pIayod a
prominonl pubIic roIo as llo load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion, a
posilion llal lad a dolrimonlaI offocl upon lis ovn imago and upon llal
of llo (Unilod) SociaI Domocralic Iarly llal lo Ioads. Yanukovycl vas
abIo lo concoaI somo of lis oIigarcl background bocauso lo vas llo ¨fronl
man¨ as load of llo Rogions Iarly for llo roaI povor bolind llo Donolsk
cIan, Ukraino´s voaIlliosl oIigarcl, Rinal Aklmolov.
Somo mombors of llo conlrisl camp undorslood lloso sociaI viovs
and aclod accordingIy. AIllougl lloir poIilicaI parlios officiaIIy backod
Yanukovycl´s candidacy, in roaIily lloy sal on llo fonco and ignorod
lov lloir mombors backod Yuslclonko. TypicaI of lloso fonco-sillors
vas Iylvyn, vlo varnod llal lonsions voro ligl on llis issuo: ¨Soonor
or Ialor Ukraino viII arrivo al llo idoa of an anli-oIigarcl coup. Bollor il
vas dono as soon as possibIo villoul rovoIulion [orj lonsion and in a
civiIizod mannor.¨
Tlo viovs of Ukraino´s Ioading poIicy makors voro liglIy nogalivo
aboul Yanukovycl. Many of llom aro basod in Kyiv, vloro Yanukovycl
faiIod lo vin many volos in any of llo llroo rounds of oIoclions.
Yanukovycl vas soon as llo candidalo Ioasl IikoIy lo sproad Iuropoan
vaIuos, according lo a Razumkov Conlor poII.
Ukraino´s oIilo poIicy
makors sav Moroz and Yuslclonko as boing llo onIy lvo Ioading can-
didalos vlo vouId, if oIoclod, promolo Iuropoan vaIuos.
Suspicion vas raisod by llo facl llal Yanukovycl´s projocl for Ukraino
loo cIosoIy rosombIod llo ¨managod domocracy¨ modoI found llrougl-
oul llo CIS. Will laIf of lis volors coming from llo Communisl Iarly,
lloir supporl vas promisod on llo nood lo bIock llo oIoclion of llo ¨na-
lionaIisl¨ Yuslclonko. Ior llom, Yanukovycl´s criminaI rocord and Iinks
lo corrupl oIigarcls did nol ovorrido llo facl lo vas llo Iossor of lvo
oviIs sinco any of lis fauIls voro oulvoiglod by Yuslclonko nol boing
a vaIid aIlornalivo. Sucl nogalivo voling vas magnifiod by Donbas vol-
ors, vlo boll vanlod lo bIock (as did Communisl volors) a Yuslclonko
viclory and lo supporl lloir IocaI boy.
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 61
Tlis viov of Yanukovycl´s aullorilarian inslincls vas roinforcod by
Russia´s massivo inlorvonlion in supporl of Yanukovycl and Irosidonl
Iulin´s lvo slralogicaIIy limod visils in rounds ono and lvo of llo oIoc-
lions lo back Yanukovycl pubIicIy. Yanukovycl´s spooclos and oIoc-
lion program slrossod oconomic grovll and liglor slandards of Iiving
bul voro conspicuousIy siIonl on domocralizalion. His inauguraI oIoc-
lion spoocl in Zaporizlzlia compIoloIy ignorod llo issuo.
Yanukovycl´s program soomod lo confirm llo CIS managod domoc-
racy modoI of an oconomicaIIy IiboraI bul poIilicaIIy aullorilarian slalo.
A common rofrain al llo limo in Kyiv vas, ¨Al Ioasl if Yuslclonko vins,
I knov lloro viII bo anollor oIoclion.¨
Tlo managod domocracy modoI vas al odds vill Ukrainian volors,
75 porconl of vlom dosirod groalor domocralizalion.
Iifly-nino por-
conl did nol boIiovo llal Ukraino vas a domocracy, vill onIy 16 por-
conl agrooing lo llis proposilion.
Tloso ligl IovoIs of supporl for do-
mocralizalion voro undoublodIy infIuoncod by llo doop poIilicaI crisis
llal dominalod mosl of Kuclma´s socond lorm.
Tlo Razumkov Conlor poII askod vlicl candidalos voro imbuod vill
ligl moraIs and slandards. Ono of llo issuos llal llis roforrod lo vas
vlollor candidalos vouId dofond socioly and Ukraino´s nalionaI inlor-
osls abovo lloso of lloir ovn cIans. Moroz, foIIovod by Yuslclonko, camo
al llo lop of llo Iisl in lorms of pIacing socioly and Ukraino´s inlorosls
firsl. Wlon poopIo voro askod vlicl candidalos voro profossionaI and
lad a good inloIIocl, Yuslclonko camo firsl, foIIovod by Moroz. UnIiko
Yanukovycl, Yuslclonko vas soon as inloIIocluaIIy aslulo. Yanukovycl
and Yuslclonko voro aIso conlraslod by lloir lobbios, vill llo formor a
fan of lunling and llo Iallor inloroslod in moro cuIlurod paslimos, sucl
as coIIocling arl, voodcarving, and bookooping. In llo Razumkov Conlor
poII, Yanukovycl camo al llo bollom of boll Iisls of vlicl candidalos
voro imbuod vill ligl moraIs and a good inloIIocl.
If Yanukovycl voro oIoclod, ospociaIIy in llo mannor undorlakon in
round lvo, llrougl massivo fraud, il vouId bo calaslroplic for Ukraino,
arguod MiklaiI Brodsky, llo Ioador of llo YabIuko Iarly. Il couId Ioad
lo ¨llo llroal of a criminaI-bandil rovoIl.¨
Ior many Ukrainian volors
il vas as imporlanl for Yanukovycl nol lo bo aIIovod lo vin as il vas
for Yuslclonko lo vin. Tlo popuIar song Spovid¨ (Confossion) inlor-
Iacod Yanukovycl´s vords from difforonl spooclos so llal lo admillod
lo boing crookod. Tlo song bogan vill llo vords, ¨I am llo mosl crimi-
naI, lonosl cilizon.¨ Tlo song onds vill llo vords of llo song´s com-
posors advising Iislonors: ¨Ukrainians, nov mako your cloico¨ (llal is,
aflor Iisloning lo Yanukovycl´s aIIogod confossion).
62 taras kuzio
Wlal vouId lappon in llo ovonl of a viclory by Yanukovycl`
Ukraino´s poIicy makors boIiovod llal llo slalus quo vouId bo consorvod,
llal moraIily vouId sink Iovor, and Yanukovycl vouId favor llo
Donolsk cIan. OnIy llo Iofl or rigll opposilion candidalos vouId pro-
vido clango, vlicl llo ovorvloIming majorily of Ukrainians dosirod.
Hov vas clango undorslood` AIllougl on llo vloIo clango vas
associalod vill Yuslclonko, nol aII lloso vlo dosirod clango volod
for lim. Somo Ukrainian volors for Yanukovycl vouId lavo proforrod
llo slalus quo (oIigarcls), vliIo ollors volod againsl Yuslclonko (llo
communisls, vlo accounlod for laIf of llo Yanukovycl volo). Bul a
smaII minorily voro soomingIy convincod llal Yanukovycl aIso ropro-
sonlod a Iulin-slyIo gonoralionaI clango lo Kuclma, vlicl vouId ro-
suIl in poIicios llal vouId bring ordor lo llo counlry.
CiviI 5nciety MnbiIizatinn
A finaI cruciaI faclor in Ukraino vas llo imporlanco of ¨Back lo Iu-
ropo!¨ civic nalionaIism as a mobiIizing forco for civiI socioly. Woslorn
and Ukrainian scloIars lad proviousIy suggoslod llal a slrong Iink ox-
islod in Ukraino bolvoon nalionaI idonlily and civiI socioly.
Tlis groalor
opposilion infIuonco in voslorn-conlraI Ukraino vas ovidonl in llo 2002
oIoclions, vloro llo non-Communisl opposilion dofoalod pro-Kuclma
parlios and bIocs.
Tlis cIoso roIalionslip vas cIoarIy confirmod in llo Orango RovoIu-
lion by comparing llo slaying povor of Yuslclonko supporlors vlo
backod llo rovoIulion vill Yanukovycl volors vlo voro dispalclod lo
Kyiv lo opposo llal rovoIulion. Tlo Iallor Iaslod al mosl lvo days in llo
coId in Kyiv and oillor dofoclod lo llo Yuslclonko lonl cily or rolurnod
lo Donolsk, sooing lloir journoy as moroIy a froo lvo-day loIiday in
Kyiv. Donolsk proloslors sonl lo Kyiv did nol possoss a firo in lloir boI-
Iios aboul llo issuos, somolling llal slrongIy difforonlialod llom from
parlicipanls in llo Orango RovoIulion, vloro adronaIino and onorgy
voro fovor-pilclod.
AIllougl oasl SIavic viovs voro quilo popuIar al llo mass IovoI, lloy
lavo provod difficuIl lo uso as a raIIying poinl. Ukrainians vill a moro
pro-Iuropoan nalionaI idonlily lavo boon oasior lo mobiIizo llan lloso
vill an oaslorn SIavic idonlily. Russoplonos lavo boon noloriousIy
impossibIo lo marslaI in llo formor USSR.
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 63
IoIilicaI obsorvor Sloplon SluIman boIiovos llal Ukraino las lvo
compoling nalionaI idonlilios: ollnic Ukrainian and oaslorn SIavic, vlicl
cIosoIy rosombIo Yuslclonko and Yanukovycl, rospoclivoIy.
If Ukraino
voro lo bo buiIl around an ollnic Ukrainian coro or an oasl SIavic con-
lor, llis cloico vouId llon infIuonco llo counlry´s foroign-poIicy orion-
lalion. Yanukovycl´s ¨oaslorn SIavic¨ idonlily promolos oconomic Iib-
oraIism, slalo palornaIism, poIilicaI aullorilarianism, and a pro-Russian
orionlalion. Tlo slrongor llis idonlily, llo Ioss IikoIy lloro viII bo sup-
porl for domocralic roform, SluIman boIiovos.
Kuclma baIancod boll of Ukraino´s idonlilios llrougloul lis docado
in offico and lloroforo salisfiod boll camps al difforonl limos. Tlo viclory
of Yanukovycl vouId, lovovor, lavo moanl llo coming lo povor of a
moro avovodIy oasl SIavic idonlily, a slop loo far for many Ukrainian
volors and mombors of llo ruIing oIilo. Yuslclonko´s ¨ollnic Ukrai-
nian¨ idonlily (in SluIman´s dofinilion) vas associalod vill domocralic
roform and a ¨rolurning lo Iuropo.¨ Tlis idonlily vas far bollor al mo-
biIizing llo popuIalion and giving a firo-in-llo-boIIy onorgy lo croalo
llo Orango RovoIulion.
Yanukovycl´s background from Donolsk and lis viovs on nalionaI-
ily issuos aIso lurnod nalionaIIy conscious Ukrainians againsl lim.
Donolsk las Iong lad an associalion as Ukraino´s ¨BoIarus,¨ vloro dis-
criminalion is rifo againsl nalionaIIy conscious Ukrainians and llo Ukrai-
nian Ianguago. Tlo proporlion of oducalion faciIilios using llo Ukrai-
nian Ianguago in Donolsk is as Iov as llal in llo Crimoan Aulonomous
Tloso suspicions of Yanukovycl´s voak supporl for issuos conlraI lo
nalionaIIy conscious Ukrainians voro dooponod vlon lo pIayod llo
Russian Ianguago and duaI cilizonslip cards on llo ovo of oIoclion day.
Il is doublfuI vlollor lloso lvo issuos addod many volos for
Yanukovycl or simpIy confirmod llo dofoclion of Communisl volors lo
lim in round ono of llo oIoclions and soIidifiod llo Donbas volo for
Tlo aullorilios vanlod lo ropoal Kuclma´s succossfuI uso of llo Ian-
guago card in 1994. Bul ovon vlon llis laclic vas succossfuIIy usod in
1994, il gavo Kuclma onIy a onIy 6 porconl Ioad ovor ¨nalionaIisl´¨
Kravcluk. Wlal llo aullorilios ignorod vas llal Kuclma´s 1994 vic-
lory occurrod a docado oarIior. Sinco llon, nalion buiIding lad lakon
pIaco. In addilion, lloro lad boon llo riso of a youngor gonoralion no
Iongor nogalivoIy disposod lo llo Ukrainian Ianguago. Raising llo issuo
64 taras kuzio
of llo Russian Ianguago may lavo brougll lim moro Communisl volos,
bul il aIso nogalivoIy affoclod Yanukovycl´s popuIarily in conlraI
Ukraino, an aroa llal docidos Ukraino´s oIoclions and llal Yuslclonko
von comforlabIy.
Tlo 2004 oIoclions provod lo bo vory difforonl from lloso loId in 1994
vlon Irosidonl Ioonid Kravcluk Iosl lo Kuclma in conlraI Ukraino.
In llo 2002 parIiamonlary oIoclions, Our Ukraino and llo SociaIisls (vlo
voro aIso Yuslclonko´s aIIios in round lvo of llo 2004 oIoclions) von
fifloon obIasls in voslorn, conlraI, and norllorn Ukraino. Our Ukraino,
llo SociaIisls, and llo YuIia Tymoslonko parly, vlo voro aIIios aflor round
ono of llo 2004 oIoclions, logollor poIIod 38 porconl, giving llom a soIid
slarling baso for vinning sovonloon obIasls in aII llo rounds of llo 2004
oIoclions. (AnaloIiy Kinakl´s Iarly of InduslriaIisls and Inlropronours
vas a mombor of llo pro-Kuclma Ior a Unilod Ukraino bIoc in 2002 bul
aIIiod ilsoIf lo Yuslclonko in round lvo of llo 2004 oIoclions.)
In llo 2004 oIoclions Yuslclonko von a groalor slaro of volos in con-
lraI and norllorn Ukraino llan did Kravcluk in 1994, vlicl onabIod lim
lo dofoal Yanukovycl. Tlo nalionaI domocrals lad progrossivoIy ox-
pandod lloir aroa of supporl llrougloul llo posl-Soviol ora, vlicl vas a
producl of nalion buiIding and llo omorgonco of a posl-Soviol young gon-
oralion llal vas moro IikoIy lo volo for a candidalo roprosonling Iuro-
poan vaIuos (namoIy, Yuslclonko). Tlo youngor gonoralion vas aIso Ioss
apallolic llan il lad boon in oarIior oIoclions bocauso of ils poIilicizalion
during Kuclmagalo and in rosponso lo llo slralogic naluro of llo 2004
oIoclions in dolormining Ukraino´s modium-lorm fuluro.
Tlo aullorilios aIso miscaIcuIalod vlon lloy boIiovod llal aII
Russoplonos vouId back llo upgrading of llo Russian Ianguago lo an
officiaI Ianguago. Wlal lloy faiIod lo approcialo vas llal Ianguago is-
suos voro Iov on llo Iisl of concorns for volors. Tloy aIso misjudgod llo
mood of Russoplonos sinco nol aII of llom supporl sucl movos. Tlo odu-
calion syslom in Kyiv las boon conduclod mainIy in Ukrainian sinco 1992,
vlicl sils comforlabIy sinco llo cily is sliII IargoIy a Russian-spoaking
cily. AIllougl Russoplonos and Ukrainoplonos aro rouglIy oquaI in
Ukraino, a sizabIo porlion of llo formor cIaim Ukrainian as lloir nalivo
Ianguago and lloroforo lavo a sonlimonlaI allaclmonl lo il.
Orango RovoIulion music, vlicl vas conlinuaIIy pIayod in Maidan
oillor by Iivo bands or on compacl discs, aIso louclod upon difforonl
llomos roIalod lo llo nalionaI quoslion. As vill llo namo of
Yuslclonko´s bIoc, Our Ukraino, many songs onorgizod Ukrainians lo
domand llo rolurn of vlal vas undorslood lo bo lloir sloIon counlry.
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 65
66 taras kuzio
Tlo sonlimonl oxprossod vas llal ¨llis is Our Ukraino, vlicl las boon
lakon ovor by a smaII group of usurpors, il is limo for il lo bo rolurnod lo
ils rigllfuI ovnors: Ukraino´s cilizons.¨ Tloso usurpors voro dopiclod
as a do faclo foroign occupalion army.
Orango RovoIulion songs aIso domandod llal Ukrainians nol con-
lompIalo passivily, bocauso llo slakos voro loo ligl. Somo songs oponIy
caIIod for an uprising, sucl as Okoan YoIzy´s ¨Vslavay!¨ (Sland up!),
vlicl, aIllougl vrillon boforo llo oIoclions, bocamo popuIar during
llo Orango RovoIulion.
Songs sucl as ¨Ukraina¨ by llo voII-knovn band Mandry caIIod upon
Ukrainians lo Iook al lloir ancoslors, vlo voro Iooking dovn upon llom
al llis crilicaI limo. Tlo oplion of slaying passivo vas moraIIy vrong
bocauso loo many Ukrainian inloIIocluaIs lad aIroady sufforod and diod.
Tlo insinualion vas llal vill llo oIoclion of Yanukovycl, lloir Ukraino,
from a nalionaIIy conscious poinl of viov, vouId bo irrovocabIy Iosl.
Orango RovoIulion music caIIod upon Ukrainians lo rusl lo Kyiv lo
dofond llis sacrod cily from a Yanukovycl viclory. Ivoryono slouId
lravoI lo Kyiv as soon as lloy couId, by any moans possibIo and, if no
ollor vay vas avaiIabIo, on fool. Tlo llroal of a Donolsk lakoovor of
Kyiv vas porlrayod in a Iora poslor as llo oquivaIonl of llo Nazis lak-
ing ovor Kyiv in WorId War II. As Ukrainians lad llon dofoalod llal
allompl, Iora slalod llal lloy vouId aIso dofoal llis allompl on llis
Okoan YoIzy, ono of Ukraino´s mosl popuIar bands, vas lypicaI of
llo apoIilicaI Ukrainians vlo bocamo poIilicizod during llo oIoclions
and llo Orango RovoIulion. Okoan YoIzy singor SvialosIav Vakarcluk
vas mado an advisor lo Irosidonl Yuslclonko. Tlo group pIayod llo
Maidan llrougloul llo Orango RovoIulion. Ono of lloir nov songs gavo
lopo lo llo proloslors llal spring vas vory cIoso al land. ¨Spring¨ vas
undorslood lo bo Yuslclonko´s viclory.

Tlo nocossary faclors for llo succoss of llo Orango RovoIulion incIudod
a goslalion poriod boforo llo oIoclions vlon a poIilicaI crisis orodod
pubIic supporl for llo rogimo and llo ruIing oIilo. Tlo slralogic signifi-
canco of llo oIoclions vas aIso cruciaI. Tloso voro nol jusl oIoclions bul
a slralogic lurning poinl llal couId go lovard oillor a consoIidalod au-
locracy or a consoIidalod domocracy. Tvo ollor nocossary faclors voro
a poIilicaIIy mobiIizod youll lo provido fool soIdiors for llo rovoIulion
everyday ukrainians and the orange revolution 67
and a pro-Iuropoan civic nalionaIism llal vouId bo far moro capabIo al
mobiIizing llo popuIalion llan vouId oasl SIavic nalionaIism.
Conlribuling faclors incIudod llo aullorilios cloosing an odious can-
didalo, sucl as Yanukovycl. Il vouId lavo boon moro difficuIl lo mobi-
Iizo againsl Tylipko, llo load of llo Yanukovycl campaign, or parIia-
monlary spoakor Iylvyn. In boll Sorbia and Goorgia, llo oconomios voro
in a slalo of froofaII villin lvo faiIod slalos. Tlal vas nol llo caso in
Ukraino, vlicl las a funclioning slalo and lad oxporioncod slrong oco-
nomic grovll. Tlo probIom for llo aullorilios vas llal llo slalo vas
disIikod by ils cilizons (as roprosonlod by lloir Iov lrusl in inslilulions),
vliIo llo Yanukovycl govornmonl vas nol crodilod vill laving
acliovod oconomic grovll.

1. IoII cilod in Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., Augusl 15, 2002.
2. IoIIs cilod in U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Novombor 9 and 30, 2004.
3. IoII cilod in Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., ApriI 27, 2002.
4. vvv.razom.org.ua, ApriI 20, 2004.
5. IoII cilod in U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Augusl 5, 2004.
6. IoII cilod in Uni.n, }uIy 23, 2004.
7. Tlo spoocl vas roprinlod in U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Novombor 20, 2004.
8. Tlo onIy Ionglly sludy of llo Kuclmagalo crisis proquoI lo llo Orango RovoIulion is
MyrosIava Gongadzo and Sorliy KudoIia, Rczirt.nµi Hcro. K|rcnc|c|iµ. Hrcm.!s|c|c
Prcicsiu [ClronoIogy of civic proloslj (Kyiv: Opon Socioly Ioundalion, 2004).
9. ToIovision slalion 1+1, Docombor 26, 2004.
10. Iora vonl pubIic in Marcl 2004 and lad a bIack bannor, simiIar lo Olpor. A copycal
Iora, vill a yoIIov bannor, omorgod a monll Ialor and vas an oulgrovll of llo
Iroodom CoaIilion bIoc of NGOs. Soo vvv.kuclmizm.info (BIack Iora) and
vvv.pora.org.ua (YoIIov Iora).
11. Acadomy of Scioncos poII cilod in Suc|.snisi, ApriI 2004, 82.
12. A Razumkov Conlor poII cilod by Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., }uIy 3, 2004, and Rakosl Slarma
and Nallan van Duson, Aiiiiu!cs .n! |xpcci.iicns. Puo|ic Opinicn in U|r.inc in 2003
(Waslinglon: IIIS, 2004).
13. RoslysIav IavIonko in U|r.ins|. pr.t!., May 25, 2004.
14. IoII cilod in U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Novombor 15, 2004.
15. Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., Augusl 15, 2002.
16. Slarma and van Duson, Aiiiiu!cs .n! |xpcci.iicns.
17. Suc|.snisi, ApriI 2004.
18. Kµit Pcsi, }uIy 1, 2004.
19. vvv.lomnik.com.ua, }uIy 12, 2004.
20. IoII cilod in Uni.n, Oclobor 27, 2004.
21. IoIIs cilod in Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., Augusl 15, 2002, and U|r.ins|. pr.t!., May 25, 2004.
22. During llo socond loIovision dobalo bolvoon Yuslclonko and Yanukovycl on Do-
combor 20, Yuslclonko askod lov lis oppononl couId dopicl miIIions of Ukrainians
as ¨baslards.¨
23. Inlorviovod in Dcn, Soplombor 17, 2002.
68 taras kuzio
24. Suc|.snisi, ApriI 2004.
25. BIack Iora discussod laclics and slralogy on a sorvor Iocalod oulsido Ukraino llal
roquirod codod accoss. Tlis vas lo provonl infiIlralion by llo socurily sorvico.
26. Soo Taras Kuzio, ¨Tlo Inlornol: Ukraino´s Nov Samizdal,¨ RI|/RI Mc!i. M.iicrs,
}anuary 4, 2002, and ¨Tlo Inlornol and Modia Iroodom in Ukraino,¨ Russi. .n! |ur.si.
Rcticu, 2 (14) (}uIy 8, 2003).
27. IoIIs cilod by Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., Augusl 15, 2002, and |nicr|.x, Oclobor 23, 2002.
28. Soo Taras Kuzio, ¨Ukrainian Aullorilios Targol Sludonl and Youll IIoclion-
Moniloring Groups,¨ |ur.si.n D.i|µ Mcniicr, 1 (104) (Oclobor 13, 2004), and ¨Ukrai-
nian Ioadors Crack dovn on Youll Groups aload of IIoclion,¨ |ur.si.n D.i|µ Mcni-
icr, 1 (109) (Oclobor 20, 2004).
29. Soo llo Iora! oIoclion poslor al lllp://vybir.yaroma.info/dispIayimago.plp`aIbum=
30. Soo Taras Kuzio, ¨Yanukovycl Trios lo CIoan up His Imago,¨ j.mcsicun Icun!.iicn
|ur.si.n D.i|µ Mcniicr, 1 (21) (}uno 1, 2004).
31. Soo llo Iargo oxposó in llo Ncu Ycr| 1imcs, }anuary 17, 2005, aboul llo roIo of llo
socurily sorvico in llo Orango RovoIulion and llo poor roIalions bolvoon llom and
32. U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Marcl 18, 2005.
33. vvv.yanukovicl.nm.ru.
34. Soo vobsilos lllp://oggs.nol.ua and vvv.lam.com.ua.
35. Soo llo carloon al lllp://mignovs.com.ua/muIl/4.llm.
36. Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., }uno 26÷}uIy 2, 2004.
37. U|r.ins|. pr.t!., }uno 25, 2004.
38. Ibid., }uIy 2, 2004.
39. Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., }uIy 3-9, 2004.
40. U|r.ins|. pr.t!., }uIy 3, 2004.
41. Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., }uIy 3, 2004.
42. IoII cilod in Dcn, Novombor 3, 2000.
43. U|r.ins|. pr.t!., }uIy 12, 2004.
44. Soo, for oxampIo, MykoIa Riabclouk, ¨CiviI Socioly and Nalion BuiIding in Ukraino,¨
in Taras Kuzio, od., Ccnicmpcr.rµ U|r.inc. Dµn.mics c| Pcsi-Sctici 1r.ns|crm.iicn
(Armonk, N.Y.: M.I. Slarpo, 1998), 81÷98.
45. Soo Taras Kuzio, ¨Russians and Russoplonos in llo Iormor USSR and Sorbs in Yugo-
sIavia: A Comparalivo Sludy of Iassivily and MobiIisalion,¨ |.si |urcpc.n Pcrspcc-
iitcs, 5 (13÷15) (}uno 25, }uIy 9, and }uIy 23, 2003).
46. Soo Sloplon SluIman, ¨NalionaI Idonlily and IubIic Supporl for IoIilicaI and Ico-
nomic Roform in Ukraino,¨ S|.tic Rcticu, 64 (1) (spring 2005), 59÷87.
47. Soo Anna Iournior, ¨Mapping Idonlilios: Russian Rosislanco lo Iinguislic
Ukrainianisalion in ConlraI and Iaslorn Ukraino,¨ |urcpc-Asi. Siu!ics, 54 (3) (May
2002), 415÷33.
chapter four
The Triumph of
Civil Society
nadia diuk
revolutions are difficult to predict. Tlo arl Iios in llo spoc-
lrum of skiIIs of poIilicaI scionlisls and aslroIogors. IoIilicaI scionlisls
viII poinl oul rolrospoclivoIy aII llo quanlilalivo faclors llal Iod lo llo
rovoIulion, and aslroIogors can slov lov aII llo slars voro aIignod lo
onabIo llo ovonl lo lappon. Yol porlaps boll aro roquirod lo oxpIain
llo plonomonon of rovoIulion and llo ¨soIf-organizalion¨ of a socioly.
Tvo yoars boforo llo Orango RovoIulion, pubIic-opinion poIIing among
llo youll of Ukraino and Russia rovoaIod simiIar alliludos on many
issuos bul no parlicuIar informalion llal vouId indicalo llal Ukrainian
youll vouId bo llo vanguard of aclivisls vlo vouId Iauncl llo Or-
ango RovoIulion and bring dovn llo govornmonl.
And so il is vill
¨civiI socioly.¨ Of aII llo oIomonls llal aro imporlanl in croaling conloxl
and providing llo fool soIdiors for a rovoIulion, Ukraino´s civiI socioly
may bo llo mosl imporlanl, bul il is aIso llo mosl difficuIl faclor aboul
vlicl lo compiIo ompiricaI ovidonco and lo drav dirocl concIusions.
Will sucl amorplous facls and figuros avaiIabIo, il migll pay lo lavo a
background in aslroIogy!
Tlo roIo of civiI socioly in any domocralic lransilion is cruciaI in lvo
koy aroas. Iirsl, lloro is a corroIalion bolvoon llo IovoI of malurily of
civiI socioly and llo IovoI of ils organizalion, llo vay pubIic prolosls aro
conduclod, and llo oulcomo.
70 nadia diuk
In Goorgia (2003) and Ukraino (2004), vloro civiI socioly organiza-
lions and voII-formod coaIilions and aclivisl nolvorks lad boon vork-
ing for yoars lovard llo domocralizalion of socioly, llo prolosls voro
poacofuI yol forcofuI. Tloy ondod in llo compIolo Iogilimizalion of llo
procoss of bringing a nov govornmonl lo povor. In Kyrgyzslan (2005),
vloro civic groups voro nol so voII organizod and vloro coaIilions
lad baroIy lad limo lo bocomo oslabIislod, inslancos of Iooling and vio-
Ionco look pIaco, and llo lransilion vas nol as smooll. Tlo socond aroa
vloro llo roIo of civiI socioly is cruciaI is in llo ovonluaI oulcomo of a
lransilion. An organizod civiI socioly oflon dolorminos lov quickIy
domocralic praclicos aro absorbod inlo llo nov poIilicaI syslom and llo
spood vill vlicl llo consoIidalion of domocralic inslilulions lakos pIaco.
Tloro aro ollor faclors common lo sucl ¨domocralic rovoIulions.¨
Iacl of llo mosl roconl lransilions las boon procipilalod by an oIoclion
vloro crodibIo ovidonco oxisls (usuaIIy coIIoclod by voII-rospoclod civic
groups) llal llo govornmonl las subvorlod llo procoss and llal lloro
las boon vidosproad fraud. Will onougl froo modia lo inform boll llo
IocaI popuIalion and llo inlornalionaI communily and llon a voII-
organizod prolosl movomonl lo bring poopIo oul onlo llo slrools in poaco-
fuI prolosl, a mass prolosl may bo Iaunclod. Ollor common oIomonls of
sucl ¨rovoIulions¨ incIudo somo agroomonl vill llo socurily forcos vill
guaranloos llal lloy viII nol slool al unarmod cilizons and a sympa-
llolic alliludo from llo municipaI aullorilios of llo capilaI cily. By dofi-
nilion, llo condilions for lloso faclors lo bo prosonl can oxisl onIy if llo
poIilicaI syslom is a sofl or somiaullorilarian slalo, vloro llo omorgonco
of a poIilicaI opposilion and llo grovll of a civiI socioly aro aIIovod.
Dospilo llo poinls of simiIarily, lovovor, oacl ¨rovoIulion¨ las boon
uniquo. An oxaminalion of llo lisloricaI rools of civiI socioly in Ukraino
and lov il ovoIvod and parlicipalod in llo rovoIulion viII givo somo
ansvors lo llo koy quoslions aIvays askod: Wly did llo poopIo lako lo
llo slrools and vly did llo rovoIulion procood llo vay il did`
Somo dofinilion of llo lorm citi| scciciµ slouId bo givon loro.
Tlo lisloric uso of llo lorm gonoraIIy las boon lo doscribo llal parl of a
poIily llal is llo moclanism comprising civic groups, nongovornmon-
laI organizalions (NGOs), associalions, lrado unions, poIilicaI parlios,
movomonls, and ollor frooIy associaling coIIoclivos of cilizons llal in-
loracl vill inslilulions of llo slalo for llo groalor good of llo cilizon
and llo slalo. Sinco a vavo of domocralic lransilions bogan vill Io-
Iand in llo 1980s, llo lorm las moro oflon boon usod simpIy lo do-
scribo various lypos of nongovornmonlaI groups. In llis claplor, I slov
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 71
lov llo rovoIulion in Ukraino camo aboul vlon ¨civiI socioly¨ accord-
ing lo llo socond dofinilion vas no Iongor abIo lo oxpross or conlain llo
aspiralions of llo cilizons invoIvod lo slrivo lovard a socioly vloroin
llo firsl dofinilion of ¨civiI socioly¨ is llo norm, as il is in mosl Woslorn
Civic Grnups in Ukrainian 5nciety
Ukraino´s uniquonoss, ospociaIIy vlon broad comparisons aro mado vill
Russia, slarls vill llo vory concopl of civiI socioly. Il is convonlionaI
visdom among lislorians and acadomics llal Ukrainians porcoivo llo
slalo difforonlIy from Russians. Tlrougloul Russian lislory ¨llo slalo¨
in ils various forms las boon llo concopl around vlicl aII idooIogy and
vaIuos rovoIvo. Russians lavo oillor vonoralod il or lriod lo docapilalo
il, bul il las romainod a fixluro in Russian poIilicaI consciousnoss up lo
llo prosonl day.
Ukrainians, inasmucl as sucl gonoraIizalions may bo mado, lavo
avoidod a slrong slalo in favor of Iooso communilios of individuaIs villin
llo slrucluro of llo Zaporizlzlian Sic| for Cossacks in llo sovonloonll
and oiglloonll conlurios, or a fodoraIizod slalo, as proposod by llo Ukrai-
nian lislorian MykoIa Koslomarov and poIilicaI pubIicisl MyklaiIo
Dralomanov in llo ninoloonll conlury. Tlo concopl of |rcm.!. (soci-
oly) vas voII undorslood by llo Ukrainian inloIIigonlsia of llo mid-
ninoloonll conlury vlon lloy roforrod lo lloir inloIIocluaI circIo in Kyiv
as llo Hrcm.!..
Ivon loday, civic groups in Ukraino aro moro oflon
roforrod lo as |rcm.!s´|i cr|.niz.isii (civic organizalions) rallor llan by
llo IiloraI lransIalion of nongovornmonlaI organizalion, as lloy aro in
As soon as il bocamo possibIo lo rogislor NGOs undor llo nov poIi-
cios of gIasnosl and poroslroika in llo mid-1980s, civic organizalions
immodialoIy bogan lo spring up in vlal vas llon llo Ukrainian Soviol
SociaIisl RopubIic. Tlo promior civic group, llo IopuIar Movomonl in
Supporl of Ioroslroika, or Ru||, as il camo lo bo caIIod, vas Iaunclod in
1989, bul lloro voro many ollors, sucl as llo Siu!cnis|c Br.isitc (Slu-
donl Brollorlood) and 1ct.rµsitc Ict. (Iion Socioly) in Iviv. Tloso or-
ganizalions providod an oxampIo and pavod llo vay for many civic
organizalions llal omorgod in llo 1990s. Organizalions of youll, vomon,
groups vorking on ocoIogicaI probIoms, and aII kinds of clarilabIo and
lumanilarian organizalions voro oslabIislod al llal limo. As in aII coun-
lrios, Ukraino nov las a broad spoclrum of civic groups llal focus on
72 nadia diuk
ovorylling from cuIluraI and sporling mallors lo sociaI and poIilicaI
Wlon on considors llo pall lo rovoIulion, lovovor, lloro aro dislincl
lypos of civic groups llal form llo aclivo parl of a civiI socioly. Tlo moro
poIilicaIIy orionlod groups bocomo imporlanl in llo prorovoIulionary on-
vironmonl. Tloso groups oflon rospond lo llo condilions invoIving oIoc-
lions. Ukraino lad a fuII rango of sucl civic groups, and lloy croalod llo
foundalion on vlicl llo popuIar rovoIulion vas Iaunclod.
Sinco llo oarIy 1990s, Ukraino las dovoIopod a lypo of civic organi-
zalion llal las gonoraIIy boon roforrod lo as a ¨llink lank.¨ A moro
accuralo doscriplion migll bo ¨anaIylicaI conlor,¨ aIllougl llo lybrid
naluro of sucl a group in Ukraino doos nol fil Woslorn lorminoIogy voII.
Oflon boing coIIoclions of young anaIysls, lloso groups lavo nol onIy
providod poIicy anaIysis and rosoarcl inlo llo poIilicaI silualion in llo
counlry, lloy lavo aIso boon on llo fronl Iino, organizing ollor civic
groups inlo coaIilions and aclivisl nolvorks. By dofinilion, in a
somiaullorilarian counlry sucl as Ukraino, any nongovornmonlaI ana-
IylicaI conlor viII bo crilicaI of llo govornmonl. Ukraino´s promior llink
lank is llo Conlor for Iconomic and IoIilicaI Sludios of Ukraino (or llo
Razumkov Conlor), and lloro aro many ollor conlors, sucl as llo Iu-
ropo XXI Ioundalion, llo Ukrainian Conlor for Indopondonl IoIilicaI
Rosoarcl, llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion, llo Inslilulo for Iuro-
AlIanlic Cooporalion, llo InlornalionaI Conlor for IoIicy Sludios, and
llo Conlor for Ioaco, Convorsion, and Ioroign IoIicy of Ukraino.
llougl mosl of lloso conlors aro Iocalod in llo capilaI cily, aflor 2000,
many of llom oxpandod lloir programs lo incIudo sominars and
roundlabIos in llo rogions and oxlondod lloir informalion dissomina-
lion and coIIoclion programs llrougloul llo counlry.
Ollor organizalions allunod lo llo poIilicaI onvironmonl incIudod
moniloring groups of various lypos. Somo focusod on llo parIiamonl,
kooping accounl of lov dopulios voro voling and vlollor lloy voro
roprosonling lloir consliluoncios and volors offoclivoIy, sucl as llo Opon
Socioly Ioundalion. Ollors, as, for oxampIo, llo IquaI Accoss Commil-
loo, monilorod llo modia lo slov llo pubIic lov llo modia÷ospociaIIy
loIovision and radio÷voro dominalod by llo pro-govornmonlaI forcos
and lov audioncos voro manipuIalod. In Ukraino, vloro pross froo-
dom lad boon in docIino sinco llo mid-1990s, llis vas a cruciaI sorvico.
By llo ond of llo 1990s, as llo modia camo incroasingIy undor llo
conlroI of a landfuI of oIigarcls cIoso lo Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma (soo
claplor six) and objoclivo informalion aboul llo poIilicaI silualion
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 73
bocamo lardor lo como by, civic groups llomsoIvos look on llo roIo of
providing informalion and acling as conlors llal coIIoclod and dissomi-
nalod novs, informalion, and anaIysis. SovoraI Inlornol silos voro os-
labIislod around llis limo, llo bosl knovn vas U|r.ins|. pr.t!.
(vvv2.pravda.com.ua) Iaunclod in 2000. Many silos voro offslools of
civic groups or oIso croalod virluaI civic organizalions in cyborspaco,
sucl as llo vobsilo M.i!.n (lllp://maidan.org.ua/). Tlo dividing Iino
bolvoon aclivisl organizalions, civic groups, and modia oulIols bIurrod
during llis poriod. Ono lling llal unilod llom, lovovor, vas llo un-
dorslanding llal lloy and llo cilizons of Ukraino voro nol faring voII
undor llo incroasingIy corrupl rogimo of Irosidonl Kuclma.
Civic Grnups and EIectinns
Tlo pasl lon yoars lavo soon llo grovll of anollor lypo of civic organi-
zalion llal doaIs diroclIy vill oIoclion campaigns and llo oIocloraI pro-
coss. Woslorn organizalions, sucl as llo InlornalionaI RopubIican Insli-
lulo and llo NalionaI Domocralic Inslilulo, lavo boon aclivo sinco llo
mid-1990s in providing lraining in gol-oul-llo-volo loclniquos and volor
oducalion and lavo dislribulod maloriaIs and inspirod indigonous
groups lo conducl llo samo kind of programs in oIoclions. Ukraino´s
Iargosl and mosl succossfuI oIoclion-orionlod civic group, llo Commil-
loo of Ukrainian Volors, vas oslabIislod in 1994 and las lrainod and
sonl domoslic obsorvors lo oacl nalionaI oIoclion in Ukraino sinco llon.
Will a coro momborslip of around lvonly llousand, llis group is ono
of llo fov llal can cIaim lo bo lruIy nalionaI. AIllougl ils momborslip
las fIuclualod doponding on llo immodialo nood for indopondonl ob-
sorvors, ils roprosonlalivos lavo oflon boon llo mosl aclivo and civicaIIy
orionlod young poopIo around llo counlry÷young poopIo vlo vanl lo
bo invoIvod in llo poIilicaI procoss bul vlo profor nol lo join a poIilicaI
parly. Tlo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion is aIso nolovorlly as llo
civic group llal pionoorod llo uso of llo oxil poII as a vay lo counlor llo
faIsifying of oIoclions.
Tlis group las boon conducling oxil poIIs in
Ukraino sinco llo 1998 parIiamonlary oIoclions. By llo limo of llo Marcl
2002 parIiamonlary oIoclions, llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion,
logollor vill ollor poIIing organizalions, accuraloIy poIIod llo rosuIls
and announcod llom immodialoIy al llo cIoso of llo poIIs, llroving an
obslacIo lo llo aullorilios. Many anaIysls boIiovo llo govornmonl vanlod
lo announco difforonl, faIsifiod, rosuIls.
Anollor imporlanl foaluro of civic Iifo in Ukraino in llo four yoars
or so procoding llo Orango RovoIulion, and koy lo llo succoss of llo
74 nadia diuk
opposilion, vas llo incroasing londoncy lo form coaIilions. Wloroas llo
civic groups of llo 1990s onIy somolimos cooporalod vill ono anollor,
many romainod sufficionlIy insocuro lo bo joaIous of lloir foroign con-
lacls and roIalionslips vill donors. Tlis insocurily oflon provonlod llo
groups from croaling roaI coaIilions vill coordinalod aclivilios. Tlo
posilivo oxampIo of SIovak civic groups may lavo loIpod in llo 1998
bid of llo civic groups lo provonl Irosidonl VIadimir Mociar from ma-
nipuIaling llo oIoclions. Tlo oarIior oxporioncos of llo BuIgarian civic
groups may aIso lavo porsuadod llo Ukrainians llal coaIilions vouId
onlanco lloir offoclivonoss.
Allompls lo croalo coaIilions voro mado in llo 1999 prosidonliaI oIoc-
lions, bul llo impuIso camo far loo Ialo. Tlo Marcl 2002 parIiamonlary
oIoclions sav llo Iroodom of Cloico coaIilion como lo fruilion as voII as
ollors. Tlo succoss of a cooporalivo approacl vas domonslralod in ro-
suIls, provod by llo oxil poIIs. Ior llo noxl lvo yoars, unliI llo Oclobor
2004 prosidonliaI oIoclions, coaIilion buiIding look on moro urgoncy and
vas carriod oul vill groalor commilmonl. SovoraI coaIilions omorgod
during llis poriod. Tvo ¨civic forums¨ look pIaco, galloring a Iargo num-
bor of NGOs, llo firsl in Iobruary 2002
÷parlIy as a rosponso lo llo gov-
ornmonl-conlroIIod civic forum llal lad lakon pIaco in Moscov in No-
vombor 2001, bul aIso as a vay of galloring civic groups from llo rogions
and onco moro oncouraging joinl aclivilios and cooporalion. Tlo Soros-
fundod InlornalionaI Ronaissanco Ioundalion croalod a framovork for
coaIilions lo omorgo in ils funding for an oIoclion moniloring commilloo.
By llo 2004 oIoclions, a IoosoIy coordinalod group of nongovornmon-
laI organizalions caIIod llo Domocracy Ioaguo llal lad monilorod dif-
foronl aspocls of domocralic dovoIopmonl in Ukraino, ovoIvod inlo yol
anollor coaIilion: llo Nov Cloico 2004 coaIilion. Tlis group incIudod
sovoraI of Ukraino´s prominonl llink lanks, incIuding Domocralic Ini-
lialivos and llo Commilloo of Volors. Nov Cloico producod an anaIyli-
caI documonl, ¨Klarlia pro closni vibori (clarlor on fair oIoclions),¨ in
proparalion for llo oIoclions (vvv.monilor.org.ua/`do=1).
By llo Oclobor 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclions, Ukraino vas covorod vill
nolvorks of civic groups, many of vlicl lad bocomo incroasingIy radi-
caI as llo govornmonl´s prossuro laclics of Iov-IovoI larassmonl llrougl
llo froquonl dopIoymonl of lax poIico and ollor roprossivo mollods look
offocl. Ivon llo parIiamonl, llo mosl domocralicaIIy incIinod inslilulion
in Ukraino, croalod a commission undor llo Ioadorslip of llo Commu-
nisl VaIoriy Mislura lo invosligalo llo aclivilios of nongovornmonlaI
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 75
Ior llo mosl parl, lloso groups conduclod civic and sociaI aclivilios
vill an omplasis on moniloring and oflon claIIonging llo aullorilios,
bul aIroady lloir capacily for infIuoncing llo govornmonl vas dimin-
isling as il bocamo moro rockIoss in ils corruplion and fIouling of domo-
cralic principIos. Anyono vlo lad visilod Ukraino bolvoon 2002 and
2004 couId fooI llo aImosl paIpabIo poIarizalion bolvoon a socioly llal
vas nov voII informod and angry aboul llo govornmonl´s misdomoan-
ors bul vloso civic groups, or fIodgIing civiI socioly, vas nol abIo lo bo
llo inslrumonl lo clango llo govornmonl. A fuIIy funclionaI civiI soci-
oly vouId lavo providod llo clannoIs of communicalion lo llo govorn-
monl vill llo oxpoclalion of a purposofuI rosponso lo oxprossions of
disconlonl or compIainls of llo cilizons.
In Ukraino, as in many counlrios vloro a nasconl civiI socioly oxisls
vill a somiaullorilarian govornmonl sliII in povor, incroasingIy soplis-
licalod nolvorks of civic groups lad fuIfiIIod lloir polonliaI in monilor-
ing llo govornmonl and in aggrogaling llo compIainls of llo cilizons,
bul voro unabIo lo oslabIisl a finaI Iink lo llo govornmonl lo provido
llo inloraclion llal vouId loIp soIvo cilizons´ probIoms and givo a sonso
llal lloy couId infIuonco llo govornmonl. In llal vay, Ukraino´s civic
groups faiIod lo funclion villin llo normaI oporalions of a socioly as a
¨civiI socioly.¨ Of aII llo posl-Soviol slalos, lovovor, Ukraino´s omorg-
ing civiI socioly vas llo mosl dovoIopod and soplislicalod, and aIso llo
cIososl lo boing a counlorvoigll lo llo Kuclma govornmonl. Wlon cili-
zons aro unabIo lo lavo lloir probIoms roulinoIy rosoIvod llrougl civic
groups acling as inlormodiarios, llo noxl slago is lo lako lo llo slrools.
Civic Grnups in the 5treets
SovoraI faclors camo logollor in llo poriod 2000 lo 2004 lo bring llo
poopIo inlo llo slrools. Tlo firsl camo al llo ond of 2000, vlon llo po-
IilicaI silualion Iookod as llougl il voro spiraIing oul of conlroI vill
llo roIoaso of llo MoInyclonko lapos.
As Irosidonl Kuclma and lis lop officiaIs circIod llo vagons lo do-
fond llomsoIvos, il bocamo cIoar llal Ukrainian socioly vas bocoming
incroasingIy poIarizod. Opposilion poIilicians sav lov llo rogimo vas
bocoming moro aullorilarian and foIl lloir infIuonco diminisling, os-
pociaIIy rogarding Hoorliy Gongadzo, vloso disappoaranco and mur-
dor camo as a slock, parlicuIarIy for journaIisls. Tloy lad foIl a croop-
ing consorslip during llo provious lvo or llroo yoars and, for llo firsl
limo in yoars, a sonso of corporalo inlorosl and ollics unilod llom. Tloy
76 nadia diuk
raIIiod around U|r.ins|. pr.t!. in prolosl and oulrago againsl lloir
coIIoaguo´s falo and llo silualion of llo modia in Ukraino.
Tlo gonoraI pubIic vas voII informod aboul llo Gongadzo affair and
llo aIIogalions of corruplion (boolIoggod copios of oxcorpls from llo
¨MoInyclonko lapos¨ couId bo purclasod on llo slrool in Kyiv al llo
limo), ovon llougl llo officiaI pross and loIovision voro siIonl on aII
lloso issuos. Will llo parIiamonl in a slaIomalo vill llo govornmonl,
and llo organs of Iav onforcomonl undor llo conlroI of llo prosidonl,
lloro soomod lo bo no vay lo clannoI or rosoIvo incroasing cilizon
disconlonl. Al llal poinl, lovard llo ond of 2000 and boginning of
2001, lloro appoarod lo bo onIy ono aIlornalivo: lo lako lo llo slrools in
Tlo firsl mass domonslralion look pIaco in mid-Docombor 2000 vlon
youll from llo SociaIisl Iarly pilclod lonls in Maidan and voro quickIy
joinod by ollor, moro radicaI groups from boll llo Iofl and llo rigll,
sucl as llo Ukrainian NalionaI AssombIy and llo Young Communisls.
Tloso prolosls voro conduclod undor llo sIogan ¨Ukraino villoul
Kuclma,¨ vlicl bocamo llo namo of ono of llo prolosl movomonls.
Anollor group of youll organizalions incIuding Young Rukl, llo youll
ving of llo Congross of Ukrainian NalionaIisls, llo Associalion of Ukrai-
nian Youll, llo Ukrainian Sludonls´ Union, and ollors coaIoscod around
llo group ¨Ior Trull¨ (Z. Pr.t!u). Tlis nov group rounilod somo of
llo originaI sludonl lungor slrikors from llo 1990 sludonl prolosls.
Will llo dismissaI and surpriso imprisonmonl of Dopuly Irimo Min-
islor YuIia Tymoslonko in Iobruary 2001,
llo poIilicaI almosploro bo-
camo ovon moro clargod and rosuIlod in llo omorgonco of yol anollor
opposilion group: llo Commilloo for NalionaI SaIvalion. Wlon Irimo
Minislor Viklor Yuslclonko vas dismissod llrougl a volo of no confi-
donco in llo parIiamonl in ApriI 2001, doparling llo buiIding vill llo
vords: ¨I´m Ioaving bul onIy lo rolurn,¨ llo scono vas sol for a dynamic
dovoIopmonl of boll civiI socioly and a vigorous prolosl movomonl. Ior
llo firsl limo in yoars, lloro vas roaI poIilicaI opposilion.
Tlo poriod bolvoon ApriI 2001 and llo parIiamonlary oIoclions of
Marcl 2002 vas claraclorizod by llo groving roIalionslip bolvoon
civiI socioly organizalions and llo poIilicaI opposilion. Ivon llougl
llo poIilicaI opposilion vas in llo procoss of consoIidalion and did
nol roacl oul consciousIy lo civiI socioly, llo nongovornmonlaI soclor
vas aIroady far aload in ils slralogios for parIiamonlary oIoclions. Il
vas proparing lo supporl oIocloraI campaigns llal voro lo bo conduclod
villoul accoss lo loIovision or ollor mass modia. Tloso slralogios aIso
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 77
incIudod llo oxpoclalion llal llo govornmonl vouId allompl lo faIsify
llo oIoclions.
Tlo Marcl 2002 parIiamonlary oIoclions lurnod oul lo bo a dry run
for llo prosidonliaI oIoclions. Tlo ovorvloIming rosuIls for llo opposi-
lion parlios foIl vory mucl Iiko a viclory. CiviI socioly organizalions lad
loIpod lo gol poopIo oul llo volo, monilorod poIIing slalions, and con-
duclod paraIIoI volo counls and an imporlanl oxil poII.
Tlo disiIIusionmonl llal sol in vlon llo opposilion poIilicaI parlios and
bIocs÷Our Ukraino, YuIia Tymoslonko´s bIoc, and llo SociaIisl Iarly÷
voro oulmanouvorod in llo dislribulion of koy posls in parIiamonl, vas
vidosproad. Il Iod lo llo concIusion among many opposilion poIilicians
and aclivisls llal oxlraordinary mollods vouId bo noodod lo lako on
llo pro-prosidonliaI forcos noxl limo.
A vory ligl IovoI of civiI socioly aclivily in Ukraino claraclorizod llo
monlls bolvoon mid-2002 and llo prosidonliaI oIoclion campaign of
2004. Nov lypos of groups omorgod, parlicuIarIy among llo youll, vlicl
look as ils main promiso for organizalion llal llo upcoming prosidon-
liaI oIoclions voro of crilicaI imporlanco lo llo fuluro of Ukraino and,
moroovor, llal llo oIoclions vouId nol bo conduclod frooIy or fairIy.
IaiIing in lloir abiIily lo infIuonco govornmonl llrougl prossuro and
llo usuaI inslrumonls al lloir disposaI, il vas inovilabIo llal civiI soci-
oly organizalions vouId aIso lurn lo llo slrool and mass gallorings.
Youll groups sucl as Iora, C|µsi. u|r.in., and Zn.µu (I Knov)
omorgod al llis limo. Tloso groups voro oflon composod of young poopIo
vlo lad lakon parl in llo Z. Pr.t!u campaign or vlo voro aclivo in
ollor youll organizalions sucl as P|.si (a Ukrainian Scouling Organi-
zalion) and llo Ukrainian Youll Associalion. ImpIicil in lloir slralogios
vas llo assumplion llal lloy vouId lavo lo adopl nov, moro aclivo,
and diroclIy confronlalionaI mollods. Dispulo conlinuos around llo
gonosis of llo youll group ¨Iora¨ and vlicl ving÷llo ¨yoIIov¨ or
llo ¨bIack¨÷is llo aullonlic group. Tlo aclivisls of BIack Iora camo
logollor in 2003 vill llo oxpIicil aim of claIIonging llo govornmonl´s
aullorily, vlicl lloy IaboIod vill llo calcly lorm |uc|mizm. Taking
up somo of llo moro aggrossivo loclniquos of civiI disobodionco prac-
licod by llo Sorbian youll group Olpor, BIack Iora promisod lo bo on
llo fronl Iinos againsl llo govornmonl. Tlo Ioadorslip of YoIIov Iora
camo oul of llo Iroodom of Cloico coaIilion and londod lo soo llo roIo
of ils group as an organizor of youll and lrainor of aclivisls lo onsuro
llo inlogrily of llo oIocloraI procoss. Tloso difforoncos lurnod oul lo bo
acadomic, lovovor, as boll vings joinod in slrool aclions logollor,
78 nadia diuk
allondod lraining camps in llo Crimoa and in llo Carpallian Moun-
lains, and gonoraIIy aclod in concorl llrougloul llo oIocloraI campaign
and in llo Orango RovoIulion.
Tlo counldovn lo llo prosidonliaI oIoclions look a significanl lurn
ovor llo mayoraI oIoclion in Mukaclovo in Marcl 2004. Dospilo llo bosl
offorls of many civiI socioly organizalions llal conduclod moniloring
and oxil poIIs, and vill llo loIp of a Iargo conlingonl of parIiamonlary
dopulios from llo opposilion, no ono couId provonl gross faIsificalions
and vioIalions of llo procoss and rosuIls, as voII as puro lluggory from
unknovn assaiIanls al many of llo poIIing slalions. Il bocamo cIoar llal
llo aullorilios vouId slop al nolling lo mainlain lloir conlroI ovor llo
prosidonliaI oIoclions. Tlis roaIizalion sorvod lo radicaIizo many in llo
opposilion as voII as in civiI socioly.
Irom Marcl unliI Oclobor, Ukraino´s youll groups, incIuding Iora,
brougll llousands of sludonls and young poopIo inlo llo slrools aII ovor
llo counlry lo prolosl againsl llo govornmonl. In }uno 2004, for oxampIo,
Iora organizod a vookIong ovonl llrougloul llo counlry undor llo
bannor ¨10 yoars of Kuc|mizm¨ llal incIudod a coromoniaI prosonlalion
of a copy of llo Ukrainian conslilulion lo govornmonl officiaIs lo ro-
mind llom of lloir duly lo llo nalion. In }uIy and Augusl, sludonl slrikos
voro organizod undor llo bannor ¨Sludonl SoIidarily¨ lo supporl llo
sludonls in Sumy vlo lad boon slruggIing for monlls againsl llo van-
lon Iiquidalion of llo indopondonco of liglor oducalionaI inslilulions
by llo aullorilios. Ton llousand sludonls convorgod on Kyiv on Oclo-
bor 16, 2004, galloring in llo four goograplicaI cornors of llo cily lo
marcl in prolosl. Tloy loadod lovard llo conlor for a Siu!cnis|c Vic|c
(sludonl raIIy) as a symboIic dopiclion of nalionaI supporl for Viklor
PenpIe Take tn the 5treets
As llo oIocloraI campaign progrossod, llougl poIIing slovod Viklor
Yuslclonko in llo Ioad in Soplombor 2004, llo polonliaI rosponso of llo
cilizonry lo a frauduIonl oIoclion vas sliII an unknovn, ovon vill llo
Iargo numbor of Ukrainians vorking in civiI socioly organizalions and
in llo opposilion. Tloro voro individuaIs villin llo opposilion, lov-
ovor, vlo voro dovoIoping a slralogy lo gol llo poopIo oul inlo llo slrools
in supporl of opposilion candidalo Viklor Yuslclonko.
Iormor opposilion parIiamonlarian Taras Slolskiv bocamo a spokos-
porson for llo loam of slralogisls in llo Yuslclonko campaign vlo
cIaim llal pIans for mass domonslralions voro slarlod a yoar boforo
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 79
llo oIoclion.
Tlo voling pubIic lad boon proparod by informalion from
civiI socioly organizalions lo boIiovo llal Yuslclonko vouId vin in a
fair oIocloraI figll bul llal llo aullorilios vouId mosl IikoIy uso aII moans
lo provonl il. Tlo Slolskiv loam villin Viklor Yuslclonko´s campaign
dovoIopod a lvo-prongod slralogy: firsl, lo lrain llousands of aclivisls
lo Ioad prolosl aclions, and, socond, lo doviso vays lo bring concornod
cilizons of Ukraino oul inlo llo slrools lo dofond lloir volo.
Tlo firsl mass raIIy for Yuslclonko look pIaco in Kyiv in llo Spituc|.
p|cs|c|. (Singing IioId), vloro lo announcod lis candidacy on }uIy 4,
2004. Tlousands of poopIo from aII ovor Ukraino lravoIod lo bo prosonl
al llo announcomonl, arriving in busos and carrying bannors announc-
ing lloir pIaco of origin. Tlo raIIy vas doIiboraloIy organizod in llo modo
of a piIgrimago. Tlo pIannod procossion from llo Singing IioId lo llo
officos of llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission bIockod llo slrools of Kyiv
for lours. Sucl sconos voro ropoalod aII ovor Ukraino as Yuslclonko´s
campaign unfoIdod around mass raIIios and faco-lo-faco moolings in
llo absonco of accoss lo llo mass modia.
Anollor mass ovonl vas organizod on Soplombor 18, 2004. A mass
and ¨virluaI¨ raIIy voro loId simuIlanoousIy in lvonly-fivo obIasls.
Yuslclonko´s campaign spoocl vas boamod by saloIIilo lo lvonly-fivo
gianl scroons llrougloul llo counlry lo doIivor lis mossago lo llou-
sands of assombIod volors. On Oclobor 23, a Iiving circIo of poopIo gall-
orod on llo slrools of Kyiv lo surround llo dovnlovn govornmonl buiId-
ings÷lo givo a sonso llal llo poopIo voro oncircIing and cIosing in on
llo govornmonl.
Tlousands of voIunloors voro rocruilod and lrainod llrougloul llo
summor and oarIy faII, mainIy undor llo auspicos of YoIIov Iora. Do-
spilo llo mucl loulod moolings vill Sorb and Goorgian aclivisls, Slolskiv
and ollor Ioadors gavo mucl moro voigll lo llo inslinclivo undorsland-
ing of cIandoslino and undorground organizing loclniquos dovoIopod
by llo Organizalion of Ukrainian NalionaIisls in llo 1930s lo llo 1950s.
Tloso loclniquos voro brougll lo llo campaign by llo young poopIo
from voslorn Ukraino and by llo dosiro of sludonls from llo oasl lo
omuIalo lloir Cossack ancoslors, vlo voro abIo lo organizo a ¨figll-
ing¨ forco. Tlo idoa of sucl skiIIs coming from boll llo oasl and vosl of
Ukraino vas parlicuIarIy offoclivo in roinforcing a sonso of unily in llo
In proparalion for vlal vas onvisagod as a proIongod prolosl, llo
Yuslclonko loam vas aIso buying up lonls, mobiIo miIilary kilclons,
and oId busos lo uso as barricados if nocossary.
80 nadia diuk
Maidan as a Micrncnsm nI CiviI 5nciety
Wlon il bocamo cIoar on llo ovoning of Novombor 21 llal llo oIoclion
rosuIls voro boing faIsifiod and llal llo govornmonl vas nol aboul lo
givo up ils povor, llo maclinory of mass prolosl llal lad boon caro-
fuIIy proparod ovor llo provious monlls svung inlo aclion.
Tlo Yuslclonko campaign dolorminod llal llo bosl Iocalion for a mass
prolosl vas Maidan, vloro lundrods of sludonl lungor slrikors lad sol
up lloir lonl cily undor llo sladov of llo Ionin slaluo in 1990. During
llo day of Sunday, Novombor 21, 2004, sovoraI opposilion parIiamon-
lary dopulios lad a pIalform conslruclod al ono ond of Maidan.
By ovoning, a group of Iora aclivisls voro pilcling lonls al llo ollor
ond. Tlo symboIic numbor of lvonly-fivo lonls vas closon÷ono for oacl
adminislralivo rogion of Ukraino÷vill llo nominaI purposo of pro-
viding a focaI poinl for informalion on llo opposilion´s paraIIoI volo
Hoarsay las il llal ovon al llal slago, from Sunday ovoning, Novom-
bor 21, lo llo Monday morning, Novombor 22, noillor Yuslclonko nor
lis campaign knov lov many poopIo vouId lurn oul lo prolosl. Wlon
Yuslclonko issuod a pIoa lo llo nalion on Monday morning lo como lo
Maidan on vlalovor lransporl vas avaiIabIo÷cars, lrucks, bicycIos, or
donkoys÷aboul fivo llousand bodios voro al Maidan, mainIy Iora ac-
livisls. Tloro vas no guaranloo as lo lov many moro vouId como lo
join llom.
Ixacl figuros diffor on lov many poopIo camo lo Maidan, bul by
Tuosday, as poopIo from Kyiv camo oul and poopIo from numorous ollor
cilios arrivod, llo numbors graduaIIy cIimbod lo voII ovor llroo lun-
drod llousand. By vook´s ond, on Salurday, Novombor 27, llo Orango
RovoIulion vas in fuII sving. Islimalos rangod lo voII ovor ono miIIion
poopIo in or around Maidan.
Tlo sovonloon-day prolosl vas a raro plonomonon. Tlo allonlion of
llo vorId focusod on llo conlor of Kyiv, vloro lundrods of llousands
of poopIo gallorod day aflor day and vloro many look up lomporary
rosidonco, aII villoul vioIonco. Moroovor, lloy did so vill oxlraordi-
nary bursls of croalivily and goodviII omanaling from llo crovd.
Tlis lypo of prolosl croalos a quaIilalivoIy nov kind of civiI socioly,
ono llal lransconds llo nood for a connoclion vill llo slalo or govorn-
monl bocauso il las ils ovn form of soIf-organizalion. Icloos of llo IoI-
isl SoIidarily movomonl´s concopl of a soIf-organizod, soIf-govorning,
and soIf-Iimiling socioly, indopondonl of Communisl conlroI, couId bo
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 81
foIl in Maidan. An infraslrucluro of communaI faciIilios dovoIopod lo
food and louso llo proloslors and a syslom of soIf-poIicing and socurily
Tloro voro sovoraI difforonl groups prosonl in Maidan÷aII inlor-
mingIod. As llo numbor of lonls incroasod llanks lo gonorous conlribu-
lions from llo miIilary, llo numbor of poopIo |iting in llo lonls grov.
Tlo coro lad originaIIy comprisod mombors of Iora, bul many ollors
camo lo slov lloir soIidarily and movod in. IarIy in llo prolosls, Iora
lad aIso oslabIislod anollor lonl cily noxl lo llo Vcr||ctn. R.!., llo
supromo counciI buiIding. Tlo principIo of organizalion villin llo lonl
cily vas lakon slraigll from llo organizalionaI slrucluro of llo Ukrai-
nian Cossacks, vill a ¨commandanl¨ in clargo and a numbor of scinµ|µ,
in clargo of a lundrod poopIo, !csµ.inµ|µ, vlo voro in lurn in clargo
of lon poopIo, and so on. Anollor group vas mado up of IocaI Kyivilos,
vlo camo lo Maidan ovory day, oflon as famiIios vill cliIdron and pols
in lov, and rolurnod lomo ovory ovoning. Yol anollor group vas llo
llousands of poopIo vlo lravoIod from ollor cilios, aII nooding food
and sloIlor onco lloy arrivod in Kyiv. Tlo prosonco of many civiI soci-
oly groups, parlicuIarIy youll groups, in Kyiv mado llo claIIongo of
lousing and finding food for llousands of poopIo oasior. Iacl of llo
many youll groups coordinalod ils aclivisls. Ior oxampIo, aclivisls vonl
door lo door asking vlollor famiIios couId provido accommodalion,
and llon, using mobiIo plonos and compulors, lloy compiIod dalabasos
of avaiIabIo pIacos lo louso poopIo.
The 5igniIicance nI the Orange RevnIutinn
Tlo significanco and impacl of llo days of llo Orango RovoIulion in
Maidan aro IikoIy lo bo foIl llrougloul Ukrainian socioly Iong aflor llo
poIilicians il brougll lo povor rovorl lo llo day-lo-day ballIos llal aro
parl of poIilics. Il is oflon difficuIl lo quanlify and capluro llo drivo and
inspiralion llal drav poopIo lo llo slrools during sucl poriods of ¨poopIo
povor.¨ And il is oasy in llo procoss of anaIyzing llo ovonls lo Ioso
sigll of llo oxlraordinary acliovomonl of llo cilizons and llo socioly
Tlo mosl slriking aspocl of llo Orango RovoIulion vas llo IovoI of
mass parlicipalion÷nol onIy in Maidan÷bul aIso llo miIIions of poopIo
vlo foIIovod ovonls by valcling ClannoI 5, Iisloning lo Radio Ira, or
loaring from frionds and roIalivos in Maidan. Ior vooks, aImosl llo
onliro popuIalion vas caugll up in llo almosploro of llo rovoIulion,
82 nadia diuk
valcling dovoIopmonls lour by lour. Many poopIo vlo lad novor lad
slrong opinions on llo uso of llo Ukrainian Ianguago nor foIl a slrong
sonso of idonlily as Ukrainians suddonIy joinod llo rovoIulion simpIy
by sporling llo coIor orango. Ivon llo uso of llo coIor vas a slroko of
gonius for llo Yuslclonko campaign. Nol onIy did llo lurning aulum-
naI coIors of aII llo lroos in Ukraino al llo limo of llo prosidonliaI oIoc-
lion givo a sonso llal aII Ukraino vas bodockod in orango, llo coIor
ilsoIf croalod a sonso of nov idonlily. Tlis idonlily vas ono slop boyond
llo bIuo-and-yoIIov varioly llal lad primariIy mobiIizod llo rogions of
voslorn Ukraino during llo slruggIo for indopondonco. Tlis vas a nov
idonlily llal oaslorn Ukraino couId aIso idonlify vill.
Uniling oasl and vosl, il vas roinforcod by llo sloor numbors in-
voIvod in llo prolosls and by llo rovoIulion´s sIogan, R.zcm n.s oc|.ic
(Togollor, vo aro many), ropoalod in llo calcly rap-songs llal onlor-
lainod llo rovoIulion in llo slrools. Anollor foaluro of llo rovoIulion
vas llo oxlraordinary bursl of croalivily il lriggorod, vill numorous
¨rovoIulionary¨ songs composod for and porformod al Maidan, vlicl
aIso roinforcod llo fooIing of llo croalion of a nov popuIar conscious-
noss. Ior llo firsl limo, many cilizons of Ukraino voro mado avaro of
vlal il moanl lo bo Ukrainian. AII lloso oIomonls vonl inlo llo omor-
gonco of vlal slouId bo considorod a nov civic nalionaIism, ono llal
lad nol oxislod in Ukraino as a nalionvido plonomonon boforo llis
No survoy of civiI socioly during llo Orango RovoIulion vouId bo
compIolo villoul a commonl aboul funding and financos. A common
quoslion las boon: vlal vas llo roIo of foroign assislanco and advico in
llo organizalion of civic groups for llo Orango RovoIulion` Il is lruo
llal civic groups vorking on pro-domocracy issuos in Ukraino lavo ro-
Iiod loaviIy on inlornalionaI sourcos of funding lo oporalo and form llo
foundalion for llo popuIar movomonl llal bocamo llo Orango RovoIu-
lion. Willoul yoars of foroign supporl of Ukraino´s nasconl civiI socioly,
il romains a quoslion vlollor llo pasl lvo yoars of poIilicaI campaign-
ing vouId lavo lad sucl a rosuIl. Yol llo nolabIo foaluro of llo ovonls
of llo pasl yoar las boon llo oxlonl lo vlicl inlornaI funds÷primariIy
from Ukraino´s rising middIo cIass÷providod financiaI supporl.
CnncIusinns: A 5ubstantiaI and Mature CiviI 5nciety
A roviov of civiI socioly in Ukraino al llo limo of llo Orango RovoIulion
providos quilo an improssivo picluro. Willoul doubl, Ukraino las lad
the tri umph of ci vi l soci ety 83
llo mosl maluro civiI socioly of any posl-Soviol slalo. A Iargo numbor of
civic organizalions and inilialivos lad omorgod sinco il bocamo poIili-
caIIy possibIo in llo mid-1980s. AII kinds of difforonl civic organiza-
lions voro formod: broad civic organizalions, llink lanks, moniloring
groups, and modia. Tlo Inlornol vas oxlonsivoIy usod for informalion
and communicalion. NongovornmonlaI organizalions voro boll undor-
laking opinion poIIs and moniloring oIoclions. Tloy voro nol monopo-
Iislic, bul lloy did cooporalo. Tlo ono slorlfaII vas llal llo slrong civiI
socioly couId nol communicalo vill llo rogimo. Insload, boginning in
2000, a varioly of nongovornmonlaI organizalions spoarloadod llo pro-
losl movomonl againsl llo rogimo by innovalivo moans, incIuding slrool
prolosls. By llo faII of 2004, lloso organizalions succoodod in golling
sovoraI lundrod llousand poopIo inlo llo slrools llrougloul Ukraino.
Tlo nongovornmonlaI organizalions oxcoIIod al boing poacofuI, and lloy
pIayod a docisivo roIo in llo Orango RovoIulion. Tlo Ukrainian ovonls
slov lov imporlanl a slrong civiI socioly can bo.

1. Nadia M. Diuk, ¨Iorvoo svobodnoo pokoIonio: moIodozl´, poIilika i idonliclnosl´ v
Rossii, Ukraino i Azorbaidzlano¨ [Tlo Iirsl Iroo Gonoralion: Youll, IoIilics, and Idon-
lily in Russia, Ukraino, and Azorbaijanj, Vcsini| cos|csitcnncgc mncni., AnaIylicaI Sor-
vico of VTsIOM A, Soplombor÷Oclobor 2003.
2. Tlo firsl poIilicaI journaI lo bo pubIislod in Ukrainian by Dralomanov vlon lo vas
oxiIod lo Gonova in llo 1880s boro llo namo Hrcm.!..
3. Ior a good ovorviov of nongovornmonlaI organizalions in Ukraino, soo ¨CiviI Socioly
in Ukraino: AnaIylicaI Roporl,¨ WorId Bank, 2003, proparod by Domocralic Inilialivos
Ioundalion & SOCIS.
4. Ior a comprolonsivo ovorviov, soo ¨NongovornmonlaI Tlink Tanks in Ukraino: Tlo
Irosonl Slalo and Irospocls (Razumkov Conlor anaIylicaI roporl),¨ N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ
.n! Dc|cnsc 10, 2003.
5. Ibid.
6. vvv.dif.org.ua/op/on/pr.
7. vvv.irf.kiov.ua/oId-silo/ong/novs/novs.llmI.
8. vvv2.pravda.com.ua/on/arclivo/2005/fobruary/4/lym.sllmI.
9. Inlorviov vill Taras Slolskiv, Marcl 11, 2005.
chapter five
Pora—“It’s Time”
for Democracy in Ukraine
pavol demes and joerg forbrig
the orange revolution vas sliII in fuII sving vlon obsorvors clar-
aclorizod dovoIopmonls in Ukraino as yol anollor oxampIo of an oIoc-
loraI rovoIulion in posl-communisl Iuropo.
SimiIar lo llo oxporionco
in SIovakia, Sorbia, and Goorgia, Ukraino´s prosidonliaI baIIol vas llo
momonl vlon a broad-basod domocralic movomonl claIIongod a
psoudodomocralic rogimo llal vas dolorminod lo proIong ils ruIo
llrougl oIocloraI faIsificalion. No Ioss surprising llan in provious in-
slancos, llis confronlalion vas ovonluaIIy rosoIvod poacofuIIy and
llrougl froo and fair oIoclions llal ouslod a govornmonl vill dubious
domocralic crodonliaIs. As a rosuIl, aflor llo firsl allompl al domocrali-
zalion Iod lo onIy llinIy voiIod aullorilarianism, gonuino domocracy
vas givon a socond clanco lo lako rool in Ukraino.
Tlis apparonl pallorn of oIocloraI rovoIulions quickIy drov llo inlor-
osl of anaIysls and poIicy makors aIiko. Ior poIicy makors, slralogic quos-
lions posod llomsoIvos: Woro lloy vilnossing a nov vavo of domocra-
lizalion llal couId spiII ovor lo ollor counlrios in llo posl-Soviol vorId
and boyond` Hov couId domocralic conlagion bo onlancod vill Wosl-
orn assislanco` AnaIysls sviflIy idonlifiod proroquisilos lo mako oIoc-
loraI rovoIulions succossfuI, incIuding somiaullorilarianism, modoslIy
froo modia, poIilicaI opposilion, oconomic aclivily, and dovoIopod civiI
86 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
AIllougl comprolonsivo anaIysos and commonsuralo slralogios lavo
yol lo dovoIop, il is vidoIy accoplod llal civiI socioly vas llo conlraI
driving forco bolind llo domocralic broakllrougls. Ividonco abounds
llal llo scaIo, slrongll, and invoIvomonl of civic organizalions roIalo
diroclIy lo llo succoss of oIocloraI rovoIulions and lo llo quaIily of nov
On llis accounl, loo, Ukraino´s Orango RovoIulion paraI-
IoIod oarIior domocralic oponings in llo rogion. Nol onIy did numorous
nongovornmonlaI organizalions (NGOs) pIay an aclivo roIo boforo and
during llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclions, lloir ovonluaI succoss in pross-
ing for domocracy aIso lingod upon llo concorlod offorl civiI socioly
undorlook in gonoraI.
A primary oxampIo of sucl coordinalod and cooporalivo aclion across
civiI socioly organizalions vas llo civic campaign of Iora. Inauguralod
in Marcl 2004, llis campaign quickIy grov inlo llo Iargosl counlry-
vido nolvork of NGOs, aclivilios, and voIunloors. By llo limo of ils
officiaI cIosuro in Ialo }anuary 2005, Iora lad for many bocomo as syn-
onymous vill llo Orango RovoIulion as lad Kmara vill llo Roso Rovo-
Iulion in Goorgia, Olpor in Sorbia´s ovorcoming llo MiIosovic rogimo,
and OK ´98 for llo ousling of llo Mociar govornmonl in SIovakia.
AIllougl onIy ono of sovoraI concorlod offorls, llo scaIo and visibiI-
ily acliovod by Iora varranl a cIosor Iook al llis parlicuIar campaign
and ils background and ovoIulion, approacl and aclivilios, slrucluro
and rosourcos, and accompIislmonls. Basod on informalion providod
by insido aclivisls and oulsido obsorvors, vo slov in llis claplor lov
Iora cryslaIIizod sovoraI of llo sociaI and poIilicaI faclors llal conlrib-
ulod lo llo succoss of llo Orango RovoIulion.
Ru:om nus bohuto: Jnining Fnrces in Ukrainian CiviI 5nciety
Iora´s civic campaign and llo broador conlribulion llal NGOs mado lo
llo Orango RovoIulion aro cIosoIy liod lo llo Iongor-lorm dovoIopmonl
and Ioarning procoss of civiI socioly in Ukraino. As nolod oIsovloro in
llis book, llo yoars sinco Ukrainian indopondonco in 1991 voro clarac-
lorizod by dovoIopmonls in civiI socioly in llo counlry. In llo 1990s,
sovoraI organizalions voro formod lo advocalo for domocralic dovoIop-
monl in Ukraino. Tloir aclivilios incIudod poIilicaI and sociaI anaIysis,
pubIic informalion, broad-basod mobiIizalion, cilizon parlicipalion, and
oIoclion moniloring. During succossivo parIiamonlary and prosidonliaI
oIoclions, lloso valcldogs and llink lanks buiIl lloir oxporliso and por-
foclod lloir loclniquos. GraduaIIy, and in rosponso lo llo incroasingIy
pora—“i t’ s ti me” for democracy i n ukrai ne 87
aullorilarian londoncios of llo Kuclma rogimo, civiI socioly organiza-
lions bogan lo form coaIilions, cuIlivalo roIalionslips vill domocralic
poIilicaI aclors, consuIl vill lloir counlorparls oIsovloro in ConlraI and
Iaslorn Iuropo, and mobiIizo Iargor soclors of llo pubIic in Ukraino.
By oarIy 2004, lloso dovoIopmonls lad sufficionlIy proparod Ukrai-
nian civiI socioly lo dovoIop a comprolonsivo program of NGO aclivi-
lios in proparalion for llo faII 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclion. Tlis program,
onlilIod ¨Wavo of Iroodom,¨ acknovIodgod llo crilicaI naluro of llo
upcoming oIoclion for llo furllor dovoIopmonl of Ukraino. Il aIso an-
licipalod llo Kuclma rogimo´s vidosproad manipuIalion of llo oIoc-
loraI procoss. ConsoquonlIy, Wavo of Iroodom vas dosignod as a na-
lionvido civic offorl, allracling an unprocodonlod numbor of civic
organizalions and addrossing a compIox sol of oIoclion-roIalod aclivi-
lios aimod lo onsuro a froo and fair baIIol.
SovoraI NGO coaIilions and numorous individuaI organizalions un-
dorvrolo llo program, vlicl combinod oIomonls of anaIysis, volor odu-
calion and informalion, oIoclion moniloring, and proparalion for sociaI
mobiIizalion. IndividuaI organizalions commillod lloir rosourcos lo
projocls lo monilor llo campaign financos of individuaI candidalos, for
llo civic ovorsigll of llo drafling of volor Iisls, lraining for commission-
ors al poIIing slalions, inlornalionaI obsorvalion of poIIing slalions
abroad, a lol Iino for oIoclion-roIalod informalion, and a Iargo-scaIo cam-
paign of volor informalion and oducalion.
On llo nalionaI IovoI, parlicipaling organizalions incIudod llo Iroo-
dom of Cloico coaIilion of Ukrainian NGOs, llo Anlicorruplion Com-
milloo, and llo Communicalion DovoIopmonl Conlor (aII basod in Kyiv).
RogionaI parlnors of llis program voro, among ollors, llo Iund of Io-
caI Domocracy in Klarkiv, llo Conlor for Supporling Irivalo Inilialivos÷
llo Iaboralory of SociaI Rosoarcl in Iviv, llo youll NGO Vsosvil in
SimforopoI, IR÷Spaco in Dnipropolrovsk, and llo IodIisky Conlor of
SociaI ToclnoIogios in Vinnylsia.
IndividuaI projocls voro lo bo coordinalod lo aIIov for maximum
inloraclion. Tlink lanks llal conduclod anaIylicaI or moniloring projocls,
for oxampIo, suppIiod llo rosuIls of lloir vork lo informalion and odu-
calion offorls, vliIo llo onliro nolvork of llo program´s NGOs conlrib-
ulod lo rocording vioIalions in llo oIocloraI procoss. Wavo of Iroodom
roprosonlod a IogicaI progrossion from lillorlo Ioosor forms of NGO
Undor llo umbroIIa program, llo conlraI oIomonls of volor informa-
lion and sociaI mobiIizalion voro Iora´s rosponsibiIily. Tlo basic idoa
88 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
bolind Iora´s campaign vas llal llo absonco of indopondonl modia
vas far-roacling and groalIy assislod llo incumbonl rogimo in manipu-
Ialing llo pubIic in llo oIocloraI procoss. AIlornalivo mass modia and
sourcos of informalion voro noodod lo guaranloo froo and fair oIoclions
and lo givo llo Ukrainian pubIic moro accuralo informalion aboul llo
oIocloraI procoss, llo conlondors running for llo prosidoncy, llo riglls
of cilizons, llo imporlanco of voling, and possibIo slalo manipuIalion of
llo oIoclion. AIlornalivo sourcos of informalion vouId bo inslrumonlaI
in mobiIizing pubIic prolosl againsl oIoclion fraud.
Givon llo govorning rogimo´s conlroI ovor mosl slalo and commorciaI
modia, aIlornalivo sourcos of informalion voro concoivabIo onIy in llo
roaIm of civiI socioly. SpociaIizod civic organizalions÷llink lanks sucl
as llo Razumkov Conlor and llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion, oIoc-
lion-orionlod groups, incIuding llo Commilloo of Ukrainian Volors, and
modia monilors Iiko llo IquaI Accoss Commilloo÷gonoralod aIlornalivo,
objoclivo, and crilicaI conlonl on llo oIocloraI procoss. CiviI socioly moro
broadIy doIivorod llis informalion diroclIy lo cilizons nalionvido.
Ior llis purposo, llo civic campaign Iora bogan oarIy in 2004 as a
joinl offorl of civic organizalions. Tloso incIudod mombors of llo fivo
Iargosl Ukrainian youll organizalions: llo Clrislian-Domocralic Youll
of Ukraino, llo Union of Ukrainian Youll, Zarovo, Young Irosvila, and
llo Associalion of Iav Sludonls. AffiIialos of llo Iroodom of Cloico
CoaIilion of Ukrainian NGOs joinod in, as did sovoraI IocaI NGOs and
sludonl organizalions al univorsilios and inslilulos of liglor oducalion.
AIlogollor moro llan 150 difforonl nalionaI, rogionaI, and IocaI NGOs
ovonluaIIy parlicipalod in Iora, vlicl ovoIvod inlo llo Iargosl civic
movomonl lillorlo soon in ConlraI and Iaslorn Iuropo.
The Pnra Campaign: 5ix 5teps tnward the Orange RevnIutinn
Croaling Iora vas a formidabIo lask. Tlo sloor numbor of parlnor orga-
nizalions posod a considorabIo managoriaI probIom for buiIding a con-
corlod offorl. In ils ambilion lo bo a nalionvido campaign, llo vasl sizo
of Ukraino vas a claIIongo. SociaI, cuIluraI, and adminislralivo diffor-
oncos and rogionaI divorsily aIso lad lo bo lakon inlo accounl. Tlo po-
IilicaI cIimalo in llo counlry vas opprossivo and significanlIy in fIux,
llus roquiring considorabIo fIoxibiIily. If, dospilo lloso claIIongos, Iora
succoodod and conlribulod subslanliaIIy lo llo Orango RovoIulion, il
vas nol Ioasl llo rosuIl of llo syslomalic and skiIIfuI approacl of ils
Ioadors, comprising six slagos.
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 89
Sicp Onc. Ir.ming i|c C.mp.ign .n! Dctc|cping Pcr.´s
Org.niz.iicn.| Siruciurc
Bolvoon }anuary and Marcl 2004, campaign parlnors sol oul lo oslab-
Iisl llo main principIos and lasks noodod lo guido Iora. Tlo campaign
drov on llo oxporionco of civic movomonls in Ukraino as voII as ollor
counlrios in llo rogion. Tlis inspiralion vas rofIoclod in llo principIos
llal claraclorizod Iora as a lransparonl, nonparlisan, and voIunlary
offorl by civiI socioly lo slrongllon domocralic praclicos during llo 2004
prosidonliaI oIoclions. On llal basis, campaign lasks incIudod provid-
ing accuralo informalion aboul llo oIocloraI procoss, incroasing llo volor
lurnoul of domocralicaIIy mindod and Woslorn-orionlod sociaI groups,
making a domocralic appoaI lo poIilicaIIy noulraI or insufficionlIy in-
formod volors, forming a voIunloor nolvork lo covor llo campaign, and
raIIying socioly in llo ovonl of oIocloraI fraud. Tloso principIos and lasks
voro officiaIIy prosonlod al llo Iauncl of Iora´s civic campaign on Marcl
9, 2004.
Noxl, a suilabIo organizalionaI slrucluro vas noodod. A campaign
counciI vas oslabIislod in ApriI 2004 al llo inilialivo of VIadisIav Kaskiv,
a soasonod domocralic aclivisl and Ioador of llo Ior Trull commilloo.
Tlo counciI brougll logollor prominonl pubIic figuros, civic aclivisls,
roprosonlalivos of llo businoss communily, parIiamonl, llo slalo admin-
islralion, and inlornalionaI organizalions. Mombors of llo counciI in-
cIudod Markiyan Ivasclislin, a 1990 sludonl-prolosl organizor, Taras
Slolskiv, a mombor of parIiamonl and llo Ioador of llo ¨Ukraino vill-
oul Kuclma¨ aclion, Yuriy IavIonko, a mombor of parIiamonl and llo
load of llo Youll Iarly of Ukraino, OIoksandr Yaroma, llo load of
Clrislian-Domocralic Youll of Ukraino, and Yovlon ZoIolariov, an ac-
livisl of llo Ior Trull commilloo in Klarkiv.
Tlo primary roIo of llis counciI vas lo suporviso and adviso llo cam-
paign, mako slralogic docisions, and garnor pubIic and poIilicaI sup-
porl. Day-lo-day managomonl vas landIod by a coordinalion conlor,
vlicl vas oslabIislod in Kyiv and loadod by Kaskiv. Tlo conlor vas lo
dovoIop a nalionaI campaign nolvork, formuIalo an informalion slral-
ogy and laclics, coordinalo rogionaI aclivilios, pubIisl and doIivor cam-
paign maloriaIs, and consuIl vill poIilicaI parlnors and aIIios.
On llo
rogionaI IovoI, Ukraino vas subdividod inlo sovonly-oigll |us|c|cs, oacl
corrosponding lo a lorrilory of aboul laIf a miIIion inlabilanls, vlicl
mado il possibIo lo dosign campaign aclivilios and addross maloriaIs
according lo spocific rogionaI, cuIluraI, and sociaI informalion.
90 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
Kus|c|ctiµ´s, or dislricl Ioadors, voro rocruilod lo coordinalo llo cam-
paign aclivilios of mobiIo groups of lon lo fifloon voIunloors, or riµ´s.
Will llis slrucluro, Iora dovisod an offoclivo and fIoxibIo lorizonlaI
formal, giving groal organizalionaI and financiaI aulonomy lo oacl ro-
gionaI parlnor. RogionaI officos voro IargoIy froo lo dosign aclivilios
providod llal lloy rospoclod llo principIos of llo campaign and sorvod
ils dofinod lasks. Aulonomy aIso onsurod llo conlinualion of llo cam-
paign slouId any individuaI sogmonl of llo nolvork coaso lo funclion.
Various communicalion looIs onsurod llal llis slrucluro couId funclion
as a coloronl campaign. Iora vas idonlifiod and rocognizabIo llrougl
a symboI llal, simiIar lo ils vory namo, convoyod llo mossago ¨Il´s limo!¨
A vobsilo vas oslabIislod al vvv.pora.org.ua llal sorvod as a sourco
of informalion, communicalion, and coordinalion bolvoon campaign
parlnors. MobiIo plonos voro crilicaI for Iora organizors for immodialo
mossaging and informalion oxclango. Tlis plaso of organizalionaI do-
voIopmonl concIudod vill a mooling of sovonly rogionaI campaign co-
ordinalors in llo voslorn Ukrainian lovn of Uzllorod from ApriI 14 lo
18, 2004.
Sicp 1uc. Dctc|cping . C.mp.ign Sir.icgµ
Tlo noxl plaso in dovoIoping Iora consislod, bolvoon ApriI and Augusl
of 2004, in oIaboraling a campaign mollodoIogy and informalion slral-
ogy. Sinco llo mass modia couId nol provido indopondonl and accuralo
informalion aboul llo upcoming oIoclion, llo main idoa vas for Iora lo
buiId an aIlornalivo modium lo addross and inform cilizons diroclIy.
AccordingIy, Iora Ioadors dovoIopod a slralogy llal onvisagod sov-
oraI llomalic compononls. A firsl ono, ¨Il´s Timo lo Sland Up!¨ sougll
lo allracl and lrain a Iargo numbor of voIunloors lo sorvo as communica-
lors. Socond, informalion vas lo bo gallorod from aII avaiIabIo sourcos,
incIuding candidalos, oIoclion aullorilios, anaIylic and rosoarcl insli-
lulos, and lloso NGOs invoIvod in moniloring llo oIocloraI procoss.
Tlis informalion vas llon lo bo proparod for dissominalion diroclIy lo
cilizons nalionvido undor llo sIogan ¨Il´s Timo lo Tlink!¨ Tlo focus of
informalion vas llo oIocloraI procoss, candidalo programs, and volor
riglls. A llird oIomonl, ¨Il´s Timo lo Volo,¨ invoIvod llo mobiIizalion
of volors lo lako parl in llo oIoclions. Tlo fourll and finaI oIomonl of llo
slralogy, ¨Il´s Timo lo Koop Walcl!¨ vas proparod lo inform and mobi-
Iizo llo pubIic in llo ovonl of manipuIalion of llo oIocloraI procoss and
ils rosuIls.
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 91
Tloso llomos providod llo basis for moro dolaiIod pIanning. Iacl
idonlifiod a spocific largol group and purposo. AccordingIy, dolaiIod
mossagos for oacl bIoc voro formuIalod lo bo usod during llo propara-
lion of llo campaign, and a rango of maloriaIs and aclivilios vas pro-
parod lo convoy llo mossagos. MaloriaIs incIudod sucl prinlod mallor
as IoafIols, bookIols, poslors, slickors, Iollors lo individuaIs, audio and
vidoo lapos, bandanas, and bannors. Aclivilios onvisagod rangod from
porsonaI conlacls vill cilizons, llo dislribulion of prinlod mallor al
univorsilios, dormilorios, pubIic lransporl slalions, and pubIic pIacos, lo
slrool aclivilios, pickoling, and domonslralions. Tloso aclivilios voro lo
bo accompaniod by llo maximum visibiIily of llo campaign, ils Iogo,
and ils purposos in llo avaiIabIo mass modia, on llo Inlornol, and in llo
form of poslors and ovon graffili aII ovor llo counlry.
To losl llis slralogy and moasuro llo slrongll of llo Iora organiza-
lion boforo llo 2004 prosidonliaI volo, Iora parlicipalod in a sorios of
parIiamonlary and mayoraI by-oIoclions in sovoraI rogions of Ukraino.
A firsl domonslralion of Iora aclivilios look pIaco during llo mayoraI
oIoclions in llo Transcarpallian lovn of Mukaclovo, foIIovod by oIoc-
lions in llo agrarian IoIlava obIasl in conlraI Ukraino, llo soullorn cily
of Odosa, and llo induslriaI lovn of Vaklruslovo in oaslorn Ukraino.
During lloso oIoclions, Iora lriod communicaling bolvoon mobiIo group
Ioadors, moniloring volor Iisls, accossing informalion, obsorving oIoc-
loraI commissions, conlroIIing llo uso of adminislralivo rosourcos, moni-
loring llo baIIol, and organizing mass prolosls. No Ioss imporlanl vas
lrying oul llo various formals of informalionaI and oducalionaI aclivi-
lios, sucl as ¨land-lo-land¨ and door-lo-door dislribulion. Tlis mado
il possibIo for Iora lo rofino ils loclniquos and improvo lloir offoclivo-
noss. By llo summor of 2004, Iora lad dovoIopod a comprolonsivo and
provon slralogy and a dolaiIod pIan of aclion and limo Iino for llo big
slov in llo faII: llo prosidonliaI oIoclion.
Tloso slralogios voro prosonlod lo llo Iora nolvork al an aII-
Ukrainian forum of aclivisls on Augusl 22, 2004. Al llal mooling, a divi-
sion camo lo llo foro villin Iora. SlrongIy infIuoncod by Sorbia´s Olpor
and Goorgia´s Kmara, a significanl group among Iora aclivisls advo-
calod a moro sponlanoous, Ioss organizod form of aclivilios aimod al
diroclIy discrodiling llo Kuclma rogimo. Among voII-knovn aclivisls
of llis nonliorarclicaI group voro MyklaiIo Svyslovycl, VoIodymyr
Vyalrovycl, Talyana Boyko, Andriy Kolul, and Yaryna Yasynovycl.
Tloso aclivisls prossod for an ¨anlicampaign¨ aimod al iIIuminaling and
condomning Kuclmism and llo dovaslaling offocls of llo rogimo on
92 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
Ukrainian socioly. Tlis parl of llo nolvork ovonluaIIy IaboIod ilsoIf BIack
Iora. Ils aulonomy nolvillslanding, BIack Iora did nol vanl lo foslor
disunily. WliIo aulonomous, il foIIovod llo campaign´s gonoraI prin-
cipIos and suppIomonlod and conlribulod significanlIy lo llo ¨yoIIov¨
campaign vo doscribo Ialor.
Sicp 1|rcc. 1r.ining Aciitisis .n! Dctc|cping . Vc|uniccr Nciucr|
In Augusl and Soplombor of 2004, Iora movod on lo dovoIop and lrain
ils luman rosourcos. Tlis vas llo firsl plaso of Iora´s campaign: ¨Il´s
Timo lo Sland Up!¨ Broadoning llo voIunloor nolvork vas, of courso,
llo foromosl lask for a campaign llal roIiod on poopIo lo carry ils mos-
sago diroclIy lo cilizons aII ovor llo counlry. Al llo samo limo, llo acliv-
isls noodod lo bocomo famiIiar vill llo goaIs and approacl pursuod by
llo campaign, and lloy lad lo bo inlogralod inlo a gonoraI syslom of
coordinalion and communicalion. Nol Ioasl, lloy noodod inslruclion in
llo loclniquos for inloracling vill llo pubIic, llo modia, and slalo au-
llorilios and for landIing possibIo silualions of confIicl nonvioIonlIy.
Ior llis purposo, Iora Ioadors organizod a lraining camp for llroo
lundrod aclivisls noar llo Crimoan lovn of Yovpaloria in oarIy Augusl
2004. Addrossing kuslcl and riy Ioadors, llo program incIudod a do-
laiIod prosonlalion of llo campaign, ils vork vill voIunloors, mollods
of volor mobiIizalion and oIoclion moniloring, loclniquos for pubIic
aclion, conlacls vill llo modia, inloraclion vill Iav onforcomonl bod-
ios, and moclanisms of communicalion and coordinalion villin Iora.
Ior broador uso among voIunloors, lloso inslruclions and informalion
voro aIso proparod as manuaIs, sucl as ¨Hov lo Inform llo IubIic,¨
¨Riglls during Arrosl,¨ ¨VioIalions of IIocloraI Iav,¨ and ¨InlornaI
Communicalion and Coordinalion of Aclion.¨ Will ils rogionaI Ioador-
slip llus formod and lrainod, Iora compIolod ils organizalionaI arrango-
monls ovor llo foIIoving vooks. Tlo rogionaI nolvork of kuslclos and
mobiIo groups for fioId oporalions vas dovoIopod furllor, and nocos-
sary IogislicaI and communicalion apparalus voro pul in pIaco. Tloso
proparalions voro mado finaI al a sominar for moro llan sovonly ro-
gionaI NGOs supporling Iora voIunloor groups, vlicl look pIaco in
Kyiv on Soplombor 18, 2004.
Al llo samo limo, Iora onlorod ils aclivo plaso by mobiIizing voIun-
loors on a broad scaIo. Timod lo slarl vill llo ond of summor vaca-
lions, llo campaign vonl pubIic and appoaIod lo Ukrainians lo join ils
ranks. Willin a fov vooks, Iora allraclod moro llan llirly llousand
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 93
voIunloors and llus grov inlo a povorfuI movomonl, visibIy covoring
llo onliro counlry. AIllougl llo majorily of lloso voIunloors voro slu-
donls and ollor young poopIo, Iora aIso managod lo roacl graduaIIy
inlo socioly moro broadIy. Across llo counlry, inloIIocluaIs,
businosspoopIo, and civiI sorvanls bocamo inloroslod in llo campaign,
and lloir incIusion favorabIy clangod and incroasod llo rosourcos
avaiIabIo lo Iora.
Sicp Icur. Ccn!uciing i|c |n|crm.iicn C.mp.ign
Soplombor and Oclobor of 2004 camo lo bo llo coro poriod for llo pubIic
informalion and volor oducalion compononls: plaso lvo of llo Iora
campaign. In oarIy Soplombor, ¨Il´s Timo lo Tlink!¨ vas Iaunclod vill
llo aim of providing volors vill informalion aboul llo oIoclions, lloir
riglls as cilizons, and llo programs of individuaI candidalos. Various
forms of pubIicalions, IoafIols, and slickors voro dislribulod diroclIy lo
Ukrainians al Iargo: door lo door, prinlod on sandvicl boards, llrougl-
oul llo pubIic lransporl syslom, llrougl poslor pickols, and in many
ollor croalivo vays.
By llo boginning of Oclobor, lvo moro Iayors of llo campaign lad
boon pul inlo aclion. ¨Il´s Timo lo Volo!¨ usod cIassicaI gol-oul-llo-volo
loclniquos lo oncourago Ukrainians lo parlicipalo in llo oIoclion.
A dozon concorls, various forms of pubIic aclivilios, and a rango of
prinlod producls aimod lo roacl llo moro aclivo sogmonls of llo popu-
Ialion, ospociaIIy young poopIo, llrougl youll organizalions and uni-
vorsilios. Al llo samo limo, ¨Il´s Timo lo Koop Walcl¨ vas Iaunclod,
comprising aclivilios aimod al llo provonlion of oIoclion fraud.
IorsonaI Iollors voro sonl diroclIy lo llo roprosonlalivos of IocaI gov-
ornmonls, llo loads of oIocloraI commissions, and mombors of Iav on-
forcomonl lo inform llom of lloir porsonaI IogaI IiabiIily slouId lloy
broacl oIocloraI roguIalions. An imporlanl parl of llis plaso vas Iora´s
nalionvido moniloring of llo compiIing of volor Iisls.
Tlo informalion providod by Iora conlraslod slarkIy vill llo covor-
ago of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion in llo IargoIy slalo-conlroIIod mass mo-
dia, vlicl baroIy voiIod ils supporl of Irimo Minislor Viklor
Yanukovycl. In rosponso, Iora bogan a spociaI offorl lo discrodil a rango
of slalo-conlroIIod modia oulIols llrougl llo vido dislribulion of ¨Tloy
Iio!¨ slickors and llrougl a sorios of prolosls noar somo of llo mosl
nolorious broadcaslors. Tloso modia-roIalod aclivilios bocamo ono of
llo mosl visibIo parls of llo Iora campaign.
94 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
Iora aIso dislribulod llirly-sovon difforonl kinds of nalionvido prinl
producls, vill a lolaI circuIalion of aboul forly miIIion copios and many
moro al llo rogionaI IovoI vill mossagos of IocaI inlorosl. Iora Ioadors
oslimalod llal Iora aclivisls lad organizod 750 rogionaI pickols and
pubIic aclivilios and sovonloon raIIios vill moro llan llroo llousand
parlicipanls. AII loId, Iora Ioadors oslimalod llal lloy lad roaclod aboul
lvonly-fivo miIIion cilizons of Ukraino, or moro llan laIf llo counlry´s
Sicp Iitc. Rcspcn!ing ic Rcprcssicn
Tlo apparonl offoclivonoss of Iora in llo Ukrainian pubIic Iod slalo au-
llorilios lo inilialo a vavo of roprossion againsl llo campaign and ils
aclivisls. During llo monlls of Soplombor and Oclobor aIono, moro llan
350 Iora aclivisls voro arroslod, fifloon sludonls voro oxpoIIod from
univorsilios, and moro llan llirly casos of plysicaI vioIonco againsl Iora
voIunloors voro rocordod, vill allacks poaking slorlIy boforo llo oIoc-
lion. Tloso assauIls voro ovidonco of llo Kuclma rogimo´s incroasing
On Oclobor 15, 2004, Iav onforcomonl agoncios soarclod llo Iora
offico in Kyiv. During llo soarcl, oxpIosivos voro pIanlod and subso-
quonlIy discovorod. A courl caso againsl Iora aclivisls vas oponod for
organizing iIIogaI miIilary unils and lorrorisl acls. Soarclos foIIovod in
llo officos of llo Iroodom of Cloico coaIilion, ono of Iora´s main cam-
paign parlnors, and in llo privalo aparlmonls of Iora Ioadors. Ivonlu-
aIIy moro llan 150 aclivisls voro dolainod and inlorrogalod across llo
counlry. Iifloon criminaI clargos, ranging from counlorfoiling and rapo
lo llo iIIogaI possossion of voapons and oxpIosivos, voro brougll. Tloso
criminaI assauIls voro accompaniod by a campaign llrougl llo slalo-
conlroIIod mass modia lo discrodil Iora, incIuding cIaims of Iora´s lor-
rorisl and cIandoslino aclivilios.
In rosponso, Iora bogan lo omplasizo ils youll baso in ils aclivilios.
Iorlraying ilsoIf slrongIy as a domocralic sludonl movomonl loIpod lo
dissocialo Iora from llo sinislor imagos croalod by llo slalo modia. In
llo samo voin, llo campaign pIacod ovon groalor omplasis on pubIicily
and llo lransparoncy of ils aclions. Nol onIy did Iora succood in coun-
loring llo faIso clargos brougll againsl il, il aIso managod lo bonofil
from llo slalo´s dofamalory campaign, vlicl gavo il a modia prosonco,
loIping llo Iora campaign incroaso ils popuIarily al lomo and gain
nolorioly abroad.
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 95
Sicp Six. Mcoi|izing |cr . Ircc .n! I.ir ||cciicn
Tlo monlls Ioading up lo llo prosidonliaI oIoclion in Ukraino lad mado
il incroasingIy cIoar llal slalo aullorilios voro nol going lo aIIov a froo
and fair baIIol. Roprossion againsl llo Iora campaign and ollor NGOs,
oIoclion fraud oarIior in llo yoar, massivo propaganda in llo officiaI
modia, and, nol Ioasl, llo myslorious iIInoss llal bofoII opposilion can-
didalo Viklor Yuslclonko during llo campaign combinod lo mako cIoar
lo llo domocralic opposilion llal llo incumbonl rogimo vas dolorminod
lo uso aII moans possibIo lo slay in povor.
Tlo Iora campaign bogan lo proparo aclivoIy for llo mobiIizalion of
sociaI prolosl. In mid-Oclobor, voII boforo llo firsl round of llo prosi-
donliaI oIoclion, Iora lransformod ilsoIf from a movomonl aimod al pubIic
informalion and oducalion lo ono ongagod in mobiIizing cilizons lo pro-
locl lloir rigll lo froo and fair oIoclions. Dirocl prolosl aclivilios voro
pIannod, incIuding mass domonslralions, lonl camps, and sludonl slriko
commilloos. To coordinalo lloso aclivilios, llo coordinalion conlor of
llo campaign vas lransformod inlo an oporalivo loadquarlors. AIllougl
sliII a nalionaI offorl, Iora´s prolosl aclivilios nov focusod on llo capilaI
cily, ils main pubIic spacos, Klroslclalyk road and Maidan, and ils major
poIilicaI inslilulions.
Tlo proparalions for mass domonslralions aIso incIudod groalor co-
ordinalion vill ollor civiI socioly organizalions, Our Ukraino, and major
organizalions of llo domocralic opposilion. Tlo Iroodom of Cloico coa-
Iilion of Ukrainian NGOs docIarod pubIicIy ils fuII supporl of llo Iora
campaign, and il subsoquonlIy loslod Iora loadquarlors on ils promisos.
On Oclobor 15, 2004, Iora Ioadors bogan lo coordinalo mobiIizalion and
prolosl aclivilios vill llo oIoclion loadquarlors of Viklor Yuslclonko
and llo coaIilion of domocralic forcos Sµ|. n.rc!u.
Tloso proparalions onabIod Iora lo rospond immodialoIy lo llo ro-
suIls of llo firsl round of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion on Oclobor 31, 2004.
Tlo noxl day, Iora issuod a pubIic slalomonl quoslioning llo proIimi-
nary rosuIls of llo baIIol, dolaiIing a Iisl of domands lo llo conlraI oIoc-
lion commilloo, llo prosidonl, parIiamonl, llo primo minislor, Iav on-
forcomonl agoncios, and univorsilios. Il caIIod upon llo pubIic lo ongago
in prolosl. On Novombor 6, 2004, Iora oslabIislod a firsl lonl camp on
Konlraklova IIosla in Kyiv,
foIIovod by ollors in Klarkiv, Donolsk,
Clorkassy, Dnipropolrovsk, and TornopiI, vlicl sorvod as conlors of
sociaI prolosl. Al llo samo limo, sludonl slriko commilloos omorgod al
moro llan sovonly univorsilios and inslilulos of liglor oducalion
96 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
llrougloul llo counlry. Tlis oxpanding nolvork of prolosl aclion pro-
vidod llo basis for a moro dolaiIod pIan of aclion lo lako offocl aflor llo
socond round of llo oIoclion.
Tlo Novombor 21, 2004, run-off bolvoon Yanukovycl and Yuslclonko
vas markod by govornmonl manipuIalion on an unprocodonlod scaIo, as
vas unanimousIy acknovIodgod by domoslic and inlornalionaI obsorv-
ors aIiko. Iora rospondod inslanlIy by slaging mass prolosls on Maidan.
On oIoclion day, Iora and llo Yuslclonko loam lad aIroady lurnod Kyiv´s
main squaro inlo lloir conlor of pubIic aclivilios. Tonls lad boon sol up for
oacl dislricl lo coIIocl llo prolocoIs of rogionaI oIoclion commilloos, a slago
lad boon conslruclod for pubIic announcomonls, and scroons lad boon
pul in pIaco lo loIoviso llo rosuIls of llo oxil poIIs carriod oul by various
inslilulions. Ovor llo foIIoving days, llis infraslrucluro bocamo ground
zoro for llo Orango RovoIulion.
In llo oarIy morning of Novombor 22, 2004, Iora aclivisls and slu-
donls from slriko commilloos al Kyiv´s univorsilios arrivod al Maidan
and voro subsoquonlIy joinod by llousands of proloslors from aII parls
of Ukraino. Willin llo unfoIding domocralic rovoIulion, Iora vas pri-
mariIy in clargo of coordinaling slrool prolosls, bIockados of llo prosi-
donliaI offico and ollor soclions of llo slalo adminislralion, and a lonl
camp noar llo Ukrainian parIiamonl. Yol llo mosl visibIo conlribulion
of Iora vas llo lonl cily llal sprang up in Kyiv´s main bouIovard of
Klroslclalyk, vlicl quickIy grov lo moro llan fifloon lundrod lonls
and moro llan fifloon llousand inlabilanls. Coordinaling Iifo in llis
camp, providing for llo voII-boing and socurily of ils rosidonls, and
dislribuling llo gonorous loIp rondorod by Kyiv IocaIs in llo form of
cIollos, food, and varm sloIlor voro onormous lasks mol voII by Iora.
Iifo in llo makoslifl cily vonl on villoul larm lo inlabilanls, guosls,
or oquipmonl unliI il vas romovod on Docombor 13, 2004.
Tlis visibIo prosonco of llousands of Iora aclivisls and voIunloors in
llo slrools of Kyiv camo lo bo llo ligl poinl of llis civic campaign. Tlo
iniliaI Iora prosonco in dovnlovn Kyiv loIpod lo spark llo mobiIiza-
lion of lundrods of llousands of Ukrainian cilizons. Iora providod llo
nucIous for llo unprocodonlod sociaI mobiIizalion llal accompaniod llo
Orango RovoIulion in Ukraino and uIlimaloIy Iod lo ils succoss.
The Varinus Ingredients nI 5uccess
SovoraI faclors combinod lo mako Iora a succoss. Iirsl vas llo omorgonco
of a slrong sol of civic organizalions and lloir ovonluaI cooporalion.
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 97
Dislincl from provious oIoclions in llo counlry, llo 2004 prosidonliaI
baIIol sav llo omorgonco of a broad-basod offorl among civiI socioly
aclors in Ukraino. Willin Iora, llis offorl invoIvod a joinl campaign, a
division of lasks, and cIoso coordinalion across lundrods of NGOs na-
lionvido. Willin llo broador Wavo of Iroodom program, an ovon Iargor
numbor of civic organizalions parlicipalod and conlribulod lo inform-
ing, oducaling, and mobiIizing llo pubIic. In parl, llis coordinalion and
cooporalion villin civiI socioly ombodiod a Iosson from domocralic
broakllrougls in ConlraI and Iaslorn Iuropo. Modifiod lo fil Ukraino´s
circumslancos, loclniquos from llo SIovak, Sorbian, and Goorgian ox-
porioncos gavo Iora povorfuI looIs vill vlicl lo ongago llo pubIic.
An imporlanl oIomonl of llis procoss of Ioarning and lransforring
oxporioncos vas a slrong focus on young poopIo and sludonls. Indood,
Iora vas considorabIy carriod by vlal can bo doscribod as llo firsl
poslindopondonco gonoralion in Ukraino. Tvonly- lo llirly-yoar-oIds,
slapod by Woslorn IifoslyIos, inlornalionaI oxporionco, and gIobaI op-
porlunily rallor llan llo Soviol pasl, roaIizod llo discropancy bolvoon
domocralic rloloric and roaIily in llo counlry and llo porsonaI disad-
vanlagos llal llal gap moanl for llom. Tlo rosuIling rosonlmonl moli-
valod llom lo pursuo poIilicaI clango and providod a povorfuI rosor-
voir llal Iora couId lap.
To roacl ils largol group roquirod modorn communicalion loclniquos.
Iora managod lo buiId a quickIy rocognizabIo imago llal incorporalod
a cIock al llo oIovonll lour and llo Ukrainian vord vlicl moans
¨Il´s (ligl) limo.¨ Nol onIy vas llis imago appoaIing and vidoIy prosonl,
il aIso convoyod a cIoar mossago llal vas furllor onlancod by a rango
of povorfuI campaign sIogans: ¨My volo is my povor!¨ ¨I volo, lloro-
foro I oxisl,¨ ¨My volo is nol for saIo!¨ and many ollors simiIar in slyIo.
An imago and lagIino and sIogans ovonluaIIy ovoIvod inlo a slorlland
for llo broador domocralic mossago llal Iora convoyod in ils oduca-
lionaI and informalionaI aclivilios. Tloso sIogans bocamo forcofuI in
mobiIizing llo pubIic.
Tlo rosonanco Iora acliovod vill llo Ukrainian pubIic vas cruciaI,
nol onIy in fosloring llo causo of domocracy in llo counlry bul aIso in
socuring llo rosourcos nocossary lo conducl ils campaign. Dislincl from
ils prodocossors in llo rogion, llo Iora campaign vas onIy sparsoIy
supporlod by inlornalionaI donors. A moro $130,000 vas conlribulod
in foroign funding: by llo Canadian InlornalionaI DovoIopmonl
Agoncy, Iroodom Houso, and llo Gorman MarslaII Iund of llo Unilod
Slalos. By comparison, Iora´s lolaI financing vas $1.56 miIIion. In-kind
98 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
conlribulions in llo form of froo pubIicalions, communicalions, and lrans-
porlalion oxcoodod an oslimalod $6.5 miIIion. Domoslic sourcos, par-
licuIarIy from Ukrainian onlropronours÷many of vlom lad boon in-
voIvod in llo sludonl movomonl of llo 1990s and couId llus oasiIy
idonlify vill Iora÷providod llo ovorvloIming majorily of financiaI
and maloriaI rosourcos.
Givon ils liglIy doconlraIizod slrucluro and nalionaI roacl, informa-
lion and communicalion loclnoIogy conslilulod a furllor ingrodionl in
llo smooll and succossfuI funclioning of Iora. To span vasl dislancos
and coordinalo lundrods of NGOs and llousands of voIunloors, mo-
biIo plonos, loxl mossaging, omaiI, and llo Inlornol provod indispons-
abIo. Tloy providod campaign parlicipanls vill roIiabIo clannoIs of
communicalion, and, moro llan onco, inslanl conlacl pul Iora a slop
aload of slalo aullorilios aiming lo provonl ils aclivilios.
Iarlnorslips vill domocralic poIilicaI aclors aIso pIayod a roIo. AI-
llougl il vas a nonparlisan campaign, Iora´s basic domand lo roinslaII
a gonuino domocracy in llo counlry coincidod vill llo program of llo
domocralic opposilion and ils candidalo, Viklor Yuslclonko. As poIili-
caI lonsions grov during llo oIocloraI campaign and as cIaslos vill llo
govornmonl bocamo moro IikoIy, cIoso coordinalion vill llo domocralic
camp assumod conlraI significanco. Il slrongllonod llo sonso among Iora
Ioadors of polonliaI sanclions by llo aullorilios, providod informalion
and poIilicaI supporl, loIpod lo alluno sociaI mobiIizalion lo poIilicaI
dovoIopmonls, and, nol Ioasl, croalod Iinks vill lloso sogmonls in llo
govornmonl IoyaI lo domocracy and llo ruIo of Iav. IxompIary of llo
Iallor vas llo rofusaI by Iav onforcomonl agoncios lo uso Iargo-scaIo
opon vioIonco againsl proloslors or lo counlor llo IogislicaI supporl pro-
vidod by llo Ukrainian miIilary lo llo lonl camp sol up by Iora.
Iasl, bul nol Ioasl, Iora´s ovorvloIming and domocralizing infIuonco
rosuIlod from llo slricl adloronco of ils aclivisls and voIunloors lo non-
vioIonco. Iacod vill froquonl opon assauIls and covorl provocalions by
llo slalo´s adminislralion and Iav onforcomonl agoncios, Iora did nol
rolaIialo. Tlis mado Iora a povorfuI oxampIo of llo offoclivonoss of poaco-
fuI civic disobodionco and slruggIo for domocralic riglls. In so doing, llo
Iora campaign may voII lavo posilivo rovorboralions for domocralizing
llo poIilicaI cuIluro in Ukraino far boyond llo Orango RovoIulion.
AIter the Orange RevnIutinn: TransInrming Pnra
As vo lavo doscribod loro, Iora dorivod ils slrongll and ovonluaI suc-
coss from boing abIo lo buiId a broad-basod coaIilion of civic aclors and
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 99
socioly. Across a vido spoclrum of divorso organizalions, sociaI and
oconomic slalus, rogionaI idonlilios, and poIilicaI boIiofs, llis coaIilion
vas guidod by llo dosiro lo again go dovn a pall lovard llo domo-
cralic dovoIopmonl of Ukraino. To bo succossfuI, llo coaIilion lad lo sol
ilsoIf a cIoar-cul, slorl-lorm goaI: froo and fair prosidonliaI oIoclions.
Iora roinforcod llis conlraI concorn by commilling aII aclors lo llo prin-
cipIo llal llo fuluro of Iora÷possibIo dovoIopmonls, organizalionaI
arrangomonls, and civic aclivilios÷vas lo bo discussod onIy onco llo
campaign lad succoodod.
Tlo Iora campaign officiaIIy cIosod al llo ond of }anuary 2005, bul
llo discussion of lov lo lransform Iora and lov lo ompIoy ils onor-
mous civic onorgy las conlinuod.
A numbor of organizalions lavo boon
oslabIislod sinco lloso llal ovoIvod from llo Iora campaign, vill four
organizalions roolod in YoIIov Iora and ono succooding BIack Iora.
Common lo llom aII is a concorn for llo Iongor-lorm dovoIopmonl of
domocracy in Ukraino, vlicl, as many lavo acknovIodgod, vas rovi-
laIizod soIoIy bocauso of llo Orango RovoIulion.
Tlo firsl lo omorgo vas llo pubIic organizalion llo Iora Civic Cam-
paign, vloso croalion vas announcod on Docombor 9, 2004, immodi-
aloIy foIIoving llo cruciaI plaso of llo Orango RovoIulion. Ior sovoraI
Ioading aclivisls, llo conlraI probIom lo bo facod boforo domocracy couId
lako loId in Ukraino vas corruplion. Tlo Iora Civic Campaign aims lo
addross oxisling and omorging bIalanl doficils in llis sploro. Ividonco
of corruplion undor llo provious rogimo is boing coIIoclod in ordor lo
loId llo officiaIs invoIvod rosponsibIo. Al llo samo limo, pubIic and
poIilicaI allonlion is lo bo dravn lo llo probIom llrougl llo dovoIop-
monl of syslomalic anlicorruplion moasuros and valcldog aclivilios.
A socond spin-off from llo Iora campaign is llo nongovornmonlaI
organizalion Nova Iora. ConlraI lo llis organizalion is llo promolion
of Iuropoan vaIuos in Ukraino. As ono of ils firsl aclivilios, Nova Iora
organizod a lonl camp for visilors lo llo Iurovision song compolilion in
May 2005. Iongor-lorm pIans incIudo programs lo dovoIop nov profos-
sionaI cadros for llo nov Ukraino, lo slrongllon knovIodgo of Iuropo
and ils coro vaIuos in llo counlry, lo improvo llo silualion of Ukraini-
ans vorking and Iiving abroad, and lo dovoIop knovIodgo and infor-
malion aboul Ukraino in Iuropoan counlrios.
Tlo Iora poIilicaI parly is a llird succossor lo llo campaign. Con-
coivod on }anuary 12, 2005, il loId ils firsl parly congross on Marcl 24,
2005, and vas officiaIIy rogislorod on }uno 1, 2005. Tlo parly vislos lo
bo a nov poIilicaI forco llal dravs inlo poIilicaI and pubIic Iifo young
100 pavol demes and joerg forbrig
profossionaIs vlo aro commillod lo llo spiril of llo Orango RovoIulion
bul vlo aro aIionalod from oxisling poIilicaI parlios. Ils program advo-
calos a syslom of slrong pubIic accounlabiIily by conlraI and rogionaI
aullorilios, llo dovoIopmonl of socioly´s soIf-organizalion and soIf-
govornanco, ancloring llo ruIo of Iav boll in inslilulions and cilizons,
and llo unily of Ukrainian socioly boll poIilicaIIy and cuIluraIIy.
As a fourll offspring of llo campaign, llo InlornalionaI Domocracy
Inslilulo aims lo buiId on llo praclicaI oxporionco of Iora´s civic cam-
paign and of ollor domocralic movomonls in ConlraI and Iaslorn Iu-
ropo and lo offor llis oxporliso lo supporl domocralizalion in llo ro-
gion. Civic aclivisls, anaIysls, and oxporls viII find in llis inslilulo a
pIalform from vlicl lo promolo domocracy in posl-Soviol ropubIics.
Tlo inslilulo rosponds lo roquosls llal Iora las rocoivod from ollor cam-
paigns and is lo bo oslabIislod vill llo supporl of llo nov govornmonl
of Ukraino and sovoraI inlornalionaI organizalions.
Iasl, llo nongovornmonlaI organizalion Iora dorivos from llal parl
of llo campaign llal camo lo bo knovn as BIack Iora. ConlraI lo llis
ving of Iora vas opposilion lo Kuclmism, or llo porvasivo offocls llal
llo provious rogimo lad on socioly. Iora conlinuos lo addross lloso of-
focls as a conlraI obslacIo lo domocracy in Ukraino and vorks lo ovor-
como llal Iogacy.
Tlo oulcomo and offocls of llis conlinuing lransformalion of Iora
aro as yol unknovn. }udging from provious oxampIos of succossfuI do-
mobiIizing and lransforming movomonls, rolaining llo civic onorgy
amassod, clannoIing il inlo nov organizalions and lasks, and adjusling
roIalionslips lo clangod poIilics and socioly aro lasks no Ioss daunling
llan lloso of buiIding llo originaI movomonl. Tloso curronl and fuluro
claIIongos lo Iora nolvillslanding, llo ovorvloIming significanco of
ils campaign for llo roconl domocralic broakllrougl in Ukraino slouId
bo boyond doubl.

1. VilaIi SiIilski, ¨Has llo Ago of RovoIulions Indod`¨ 1r.nsiiicns On|inc, }anuary 13,
2005, MiclaoI McIauI, ¨Transilions from Ioslcommunism,¨ jcurn.| c| Dcmccr.cµ, 16(3)
(}uIy 2005).
2. Hcu Ircc!cm |s Wcn. Ircm Citic Rcsisi.ncc ic Dur.o|c Dcmccr.cµ (Waslinglon, D.C.:
Iroodom Houso, 2005).
3. Soo claplor four, by Nadia Diuk, in llis voIumo.
4. In addilion lo llo informalion conlainod in llis claplor, soo aIso VIadysIav Kaskiv,
Iryna Clupryna, and Anaslasiya Bozvorkla, Pcr.. V.ngu.r! c| Dcmccr.cµ (Kyiv: Iora,
2005), avaiIabIo al vvv.pora.org.ua.
pora—“it’ s time” for democracy in ukraine 101
5. Tlo Commilloo ¨Ior Trull!¨ (Z. Pr.t!u!¹ omorgod in 2000 as a pIalform for sovoraI
youll organizalions, incIuding llo youll soclion of llo Congross of Ukrainian Na-
lionaIisls, llo Associalion of Ukrainian Youll, and llo Ukrainian Sludonls´ Union, as
voII as parlicipanls in llo sludonl prolosls of 1990.
6. Al llo coordinalion conlor, spociaIizod doparlmonls voro givon llo lasks of dovoIop-
ing a nalionaI campaign nolvork and coordinaling rogionaI aclivilios (loadod by
Andriy Gusak), llo formuIalion of an informalion slralogy (Yovlon ZoIolariov), pub-
Iicalions and llo dislribulion of campaign maloriaIs (Oslap Kryvdyk, YarosIav Zon,
OIol Radiycluk), communicalion vill llo modia (Anaslasiya Bozvorkla), conlacl
vill llo inlornalionaI communily (Nina Sorokopud), conlroI and moniloring of llo
day-lo-day funclioning of llo coordinalion conlor (Iryna Clupryna), and poIilicaI con-
suIlalion vill parlnors and aIIios (VIadisIav Kaskiv).
7. Tlo dislinclion bolvoon BIack and YoIIov Iora is primariIy basod on llo difforonl
symboIism usod by llo lvo sogmonls. Ior dolaiIod informalion on BIack Iora, ils
dislincl symboIism, pliIosoply, and aclivilios, soo llo oxlonsivo vob arclivos main-
lainod al vvv.kuclmizm.info.
8. Tlo coaIilion of domocralic forcos SyIa narodu (Iorco of llo IoopIo) vas oslabIislod
on }uIy 2, 2004, llrougl an agroomonl bolvoon Viklor Yuslclonko of llo Our Ukraino
bIoc and YuIia Tymoslonko of llo Tymoslonko bIoc. Tlo agroomonl slalod llal llo
lvo bIocs ¨unilo vill llo aim of onding llo doslruclivo procoss llal las, as a rosuIl of
llo incumbonl aullorilios, bocomo claraclorislic for Ukraino. Wo unilo lo buiId a domo-
cralic Ukrainian slalo.¨
9. Konlraklova IIosla is ono of llo main squaros in llo lisloricaI conlor of Kyiv. Il is llo
Iocalion of llo NalionaI Univorsily ¨Kyiv MolyIa Acadomy,¨ llo mosl rospoclod uni-
vorsily of Ukraino. Sludonls and profossors of llis univorsily voro among llo firsl lo
join Iora and ils prolosls. Konlraklova IIosla vas aIso llo vonuo of llo siu!cni tic|c
(grand assombIy ) of Oclobor 16, 2004, al vlicl Viklor Yuslclonko addrossod moro
llan lon llousand sludonls from aII ovor Ukraino.
10. A moro dolaiIod accounl of Iora aclivilios and llo broador roIo Ukrainian civiI socioly
pIayod during llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclions can bo found in U|r.inc´s Or.ngc Rctc|u-
iicn. A C|rcnic|c in Pcr. Ncus|ciicrs, vlicl can bo oblainod al llo Iora vobsilo al
11. Soo VIadysIav Kaskiv, Iryna Clupryna, and Anaslasiya Bozvorkla, Pcr.. V.ngu.r! c|
Dcmccr.cµ (Kyiv: Iora, 2005).
12. Taras Kuzio, ¨Iora! Takos Tvo Difforonl Ialls,¨ |ur.si. D.i|µ Mcniicr, 2(23) (Iobru-
ary 2, 2005).
chapter six
The Ukrainian
Media Rebellion
olena prytula
ukrainian journalism has soared and lumbIod, surviving pori-
ods of boll rovivaI and iron-fislod consorslip. In llo oarIy 1990s, aflor
llo USSR coIIapsod, llo Ukrainian modia oxporioncod ouploria brougll
on by ils novIy acquirod froodom of spoocl, vlicl vas lolaIIy unro-
slrainod al llal limo. UnforlunaloIy, llal ouploria did nol Iasl Iong.
In llo oarIy 1990s il bocamo possibIo lo Iauncl a privalo novspapor,
unIiko an officiaI Pr.t!. or |ztcsiiµ., and lo Iauncl a privalo radio sla-
lion. Irom llo mid-1990s, llo numbor of loIovision clannoIs bogan lo
grov rapidIy. A numbor of young journaIisls vlo lad nol vorkod un-
dor Soviol consorslip surfacod and sproad llo slandards of a nov, Iib-
oraI journaIism al lloir vorkpIacos. Tlo surprisingIy young ago of noarIy
aII llo anclors on Ukrainian loIovision IikoIy springs from llo difficuIly
oIdor Soviol-ora journaIisls lad in adapling lo vork villoul Commu-
nisl Iarly diroclion.
OnIy a fov journaIisls nolicod llal llo scopo of lloir froodom vas
boginning lo narrov. Tlo 1994 prosidonliaI oIoclion campaign vas run
undor slricl slalo modia conlroI. Ioonid Kuclma, llo Ioading claIIongor,
docIarod llal Ukrainian loIovision ¨lad boon lurnod inlo around-llo-
cIock propaganda for [incumbonl prosidonlj Ioonid Kravcluk.¨
Kravcluk allomplod lo slul dovn Gravis TV÷llo onIy clannoI llal
lad supporlod Kuclma. According lo many anaIysls, llis mado Kuclma
104 olena prytula
Iook Iiko a viclim of consorslip, vlicl allraclod llo sympally of jour-
naIisls and conlribulod lo llo ovonluaI dofoal of Kravcluk.
Tlo firsl roporls of consorslip undor Kuclma appoarod al llo bogin-
ning of 1996, a yoar and a laIf aflor lis inauguralion. Ono anaIylicaI
ovoning slov ran a slory on llo scandaIous doparluro of sovoraI aidos
from Kuclma´s offico and vas llon slul dovn al llo roquosl of llo
prosidonliaI adminislralion.
Irom llal limo on, journaIisls bogan oxpo-
rioncing consorslip and conlroI. CaIIs from llo prosidonliaI offico, lypi-
caIIy allribulod lo llo loads of rogionaI adminislralions, bocamo llo
ruIo. Wlon a loIovision slalion or novspapor darod lo pubIisl crilicism
of llo govornmonl or broadcasl an inlorviov vill an ¨undosirabIo¨
poIilician, officiaIs vouId caII in llo ovnor or producor and dross lim
Tlo loads of loIovision slalions soon anlicipalod llo foodback from
Bankova Slrool (llo Iocalion of llo prosidonl´s offico) and slarlod lo ap-
pIy difforonl forms of consorslip. Iong boforo llo prosidonliaI oIoclions
of 1999, mosl loIovision slalions kopl bIackIisls of poIilicians vlom llo
govornmonl ¨rocommondod¨ nol rocoivo pubIicily.
Slricl consorslip soon Iod lo fIourisling soIf-consorslip. Roporlors
knov vlal vouId nol survivo llo odilor´s scissors and doIiboraloIy ro-
fusod lo inlorviov bIackIislod poIilicians. Nol onIy slalomonls and in-
lorviovs, bul ovon ovonls bocamo subjocl lo consorslip. Somolimos il
vas safor lo ignoro an ovonl llan lo pul il in a loadIino.
Hov did modia opprossion funclion in Ukraino` Tlo difforonco bo-
lvoon modorn and Soviol consorslip mollods vas llal in llo nov sys-
lom no ono dolorminod llo Communisl Iarly´s proforoncos or IaboIod
maloriaIs undosirabIo. Ivon so, llo modorn syslom vas quilo offoclivo.
Idilors-in-cliof, vlo voro conlroIIod by llo aullorilios, discussod vlal
quoslions journaIisls voro lo poso vlon inlorvioving somoono. Tlo
gonoraI oulIino of prospoclivo pubIicalions vas aIso prodolorminod. Ii-
naIIy, aII undosirabIo informalion couId bo oxcIudod vlon llo scripl
vas odilod moroIy bocauso llo ¨koy viovor¨ (Kuclma´s unofficiaI nick-
namo among loIovision managors) migll nol Iiko il.
AII journaIisls knov llal if an undosirabIo pioco of novs airod, llo
managors of llo slalion vouId bo caIIod lo llo prosidonliaI adminislra-
lion. Sucl a summons migll rosuIl in sorious lroubIo for llo slalion in
gonoraI, for ils ovnors and managors, and for llo journaIisl invoIvod.
Iiko any ollor businoss in llo counlry, loIovision slalions voro diroclIy
dopondonl on llo finaI say of llo prosidonl. Disgraco migll rosuIl in llo
oxcIusion of a journaIisl and lis or lor company from llo prosidonl´s
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 105
pross pooI. Iar moro sorious aclions migll foIIov, sucl as lax inspoc-
lions and Iavsuils. So journaIisls abidod by a sol of simpIo ruIos, Ioarn-
ing vlicl maloriaI vouId pass llo odilor and vlicl vouId nol. Tlis is
lov soIf-consorslip dovoIopod, backod by llo foar of boing firod and
golling llo loIovision slalion or llo novspapor inlo lroubIo.
Roprosonlalivos of Irosidonl Kuclma doniod llo oxislonco of consor-
slip in llo mass modia. Tloy caIIod il odiloriaI poIicy.
Al llo samo limo,
lloro voro al Ioasl lvo ovorl laboos. }ournaIisls couId nol oxposo llo
financiaI or poIilicaI parlnors of llo ovnor of lloir modia oulIol and,
mosl imporlanl, on loIovision lloy couId nol crilicizo llo prosidonl or
lis onlourago in any vay. RogionaI aullorilios kopl IocaI modia undor
slricl conlroI in simiIar faslion.
Sucl conlroI and consorslip in llo modia roaclod a nov poak in 1999,
al llo boginning of Kuclma´s rooIoclion campaign. Al llal limo, Ukrai-
nian journaIisls did nol knov llal llo silualion couId bocomo ovon vorso.
2001: The Gnngadze Case
In 2000, lirod of unompIoymonl and consorslip, Hoorliy Gongadzo, an
indopondonl journaIisl, Iaunclod llo onIino novspapor U|r.ins|. pr.t!.
and bogan slarpIy crilicizing llo govornmonl. Gongadzo vas Iasl soon
aIivo on Soplombor 16, 2000. His parliaIIy docayod and docapilalod body
vas found lvo monlls Ialor in a slaIIov gravo sovonly-fivo miIos from
Irom llo momonl of Gongadzo´s disappoaranco, lis foIIov journaI-
isls assorlod lloir rigll lo covor llo murdor invosligalion, conlrary lo
llo objoclions of lloir managors and modia ovnors. ObviousIy il vas
impossibIo lo forbid journaIisls from covoring an ovonl llal vas cru-
ciaIIy imporlanl lo lloir profossion.
On Novombor 28, 2000, OIoksandr Moroz, llo Ioador of llo SociaIisl
Iarly, doIivorod a spoocl in llo Ukrainian parIiamonl in vlicl lo ac-
cusod Irosidonl Kuclma of boing invoIvod in Gongadzo´s disappoar-
Moroz prosonlod audiolapos as ovidonco,
lloy lad boon rocordod
in llo prosidonliaI offico by ono of Kuclma´s formor bodyguards.
Tlo lapos mado cIoar llal Kuclma vas irrilalod vill Gongadzo and
askod lis middIomon lo gol rid of lim. Tlo journaIisl´s doall lurnod
oul lo bo a poIilicaIIy molivalod murdor.
Tlis novs vas a dofining momonl, marking a nov slago of journaIis-
lic rosislanco, and il vas llo boginning of llo Orango RovoIulion.
Tlo ¨Ukraino villoul Kuclma¨ campaign bogan againsl llo prosidonl.
106 olena prytula
Tlousands of poopIo vonl inlo llo slrools domanding Kuclma´s rosig-
nalion and oagor lo Ioarn llo lrull aboul Gongadzo´s doall. Al llal
momonl, il soomod llal Kuclma´s roign vouId coIIapso, if nol loday,
llon lomorrov.
Ior llo mosl parl, Ukrainian loIovision slalions ignorod llo opposi-
lion raIIios and llo obvious poIilicaI molivos for llo Gongadzo murdor,
aIllougl Ukrainian journaIisls voro figlling for ovory singIo vord in
lloir roporls. Yol novs aboul llo invosligalion of llo murdor conlinuod
lo appoar. Al llal poinl llo aullorilios clangod lloir laclics. Dospilo
lloir ban, lloy aIIovod llo novs lo conlinuo as vrillon and manipu-
Ialod il by providing faIso commonls, vlicl obfuscalod llo invosliga-
lion. Tlo inlorior minislor, for oxampIo, gavo various faIso vorsions of
Gongadzo´s murdor.
In oarIy 2001, llo opposilion campaigns camo lo
naugll oving lo disunily and voaknoss. Apally and mislrusl rolurnod
lo socioly.

In 2002, jusl a vook boforo llo parIiamonlary oIoclions, U|r.ins|. pr.t!.
vrolo an arlicIo on so-caIIod icmnµ|µ. guidoIino documonls on lov major
slorios slouId bo covorod on loIovision.
Tlo vord icmnµ|µ moans
¨llomos¨ in Ukrainian (from icm.÷¨llomo¨ or ¨subjocl¨), vlicl is
modia sIang. Tomnyky voro unsignod, socrol inslruclions llal llo prosi-
donliaI adminislralion sonl roguIarIy lo major slalo-conlroIIod and pri-
valo modia oulIols (primariIy radio and loIovision slalions). Ono oxampIo
of sucl a icmnµ| vas: ¨Tlis vook Viklor Yuslclonko viII mako somo
slalomonls on lis poIilicaI bIoc Our Ukraino. IIoaso ignoro llom.¨
Tomnyky firsl appoarod al llo loadquarlors of llo (Unilod) SociaI
Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino (SDIU[oj). Tlo firsl inslruclions on llo
covorago of ovonls voro sonl during llo 2002 parIiamonlary oIoclion
campaign lo SDIU(o)-conlroIIod modia oulIols. In Ialo 2002, vlon Viklor
Modvodcluk, llo load of llo SDIU(o), bocamo llo load of Ukraino´s
prosidonliaI adminislralion, llo numbor of covorago inslruclions grov
significanlIy, as did lloir porsislonco.
Ono couId valcl difforonl loIovision slalions and find aII loo many
simiIarilios in novs covorago. Al llal limo, aII loIovision clannoIs and
poIilicians from llo prosidonliaI camp doniod llo oxislonco of lomnyky.
}ournaIisls lad lo koop siIonl aboul major opposilion ovonls. Somolimos
roporlors vouId rolurn from an ovonl lo lloir officos lo find a proparod
roporl from llo prosidonliaI adminislralion.
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 107
OnIy llo loIovision clannoI ICTV rofusod lo carry oul llo inslruc-
lions. Tlo prosidonl´s adminislralion did nol insisl, il did nol lavo lo.
Viklor Iincluk, Kuclma´s son-in-Iav (vlo conlroIs llo slalion), vouId
novor lavo darod lo crilicizo lis fallor-in-Iav or say somolling againsl
lis poIicios. Bul ollor clannoIs lad lo compIy vill llo lomnyky. DisiI-
Iusionod journaIisls bogan lo rosign bocauso of llo consorslip. Ollors
organizod a slriko commilloo and inilialod parIiamonlary loarings los-
lifying on froodom of llo pross and consorslip.
As a rosuIl of llo parIiamonlary loarings, ovoryono in Ukraino soon
knov vlal llo vord icmnµ| slood for. A rosoIulion vas adoplod by
parIiamonl cIassifying inslruclions on covorago as a mollod of poIilicaI
consorslip. Tlus, llo poIilicians officiaIIy admillod llo oxislonco of
lomnyky. Tlis silualion Iod lo llo oslabIislmonl of llo nov Indopon-
donl Modia Trado Union.
Whn CnntrnIs the Media in Ukraine?
Prini Mc!i.
UnIiko loIovision slalions in Ukraino, vloso audionco comprisos many
miIIions of poopIo, prinl modia las a Ioss povorfuI infIuonco. Ior llis
roason, llo Ukrainian prinl modia romainod moro indopondonl. Tlo
aullorilios sonl icmnµ|µ onIy lo llo novspapors undor lloir conlroI,
vlicl voro nol numorous.
Novspapors Iiko Dcn (1|c D.µ) (circuIalion 50,000), 2000 (100,000),
and Kicts|ic tc!cmcsiµ (Kµit Ncus) (80,000) voro undor llo infIuonco of
llo (Unilod) SociaI Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino. Iincluk´s modia loId-
ing incIudod llo labIoid I.|iµ (1|c I.cis¹ (760,000). Tlo Ioador of llo
Donolsk cIan, Rinal Aklmolov, purclasod a labIoid namod Scgc!nµ.
(1c!.µ¹ (750,000).
NovorlloIoss, opposilion novspapors loId vory slrong posilions.
In addilion lo llo usuaI parly-roIalod buIIolins, llo Ukrainian opposi-
lion pubIislod novspapors of doconl quaIily and quanlily. Tlo sociaIisls
lad infIuonco ovor ono of llo counlry´s boslsoIIors, Si|s|µ tisiµ (Vi||.gc
Ncus¹ (519,000), and llo radicaI novspapor Hr.nµ+ (1|c Si!cs) (4,000).
YuIia Tymoslonko and lor foIIovors pubIislod a popuIar novspapor
caIIod Vcc|µrnµ tisiµ (1|c |tcning Ncus¹ (500,000). Viklor Yuslclonko
drov supporl from U|r.µn. mc|c!. (Ycung U|r.inc) (150,000) and Bcz
iscnzµrµ (Wii|cui Ccnscrs|ip) (60,000).
AImosl ovory rogion lad a novs-
papor llal sproad llo dissonling poinl of viov. Tloso novspapors aIso
pubIislod arlicIos on opposilion vobsilos.
108 olena prytula
Boll pro-govornmonl and opposilion novspapors crilicizod lloir
ovnors´ onomios and pubIislod onIy arlicIos rofIoclivo of lloir ovn poIi-
lics. Tlo prinl modia in gonoraI, lovovor, rofIoclod a broad spoclrum of
llougll. IoopIo couId find oul vlal vas inspiring llo opposilion and
vlal llo govornmonl vanlod lo say. Bul lo find oul vlal vas roaIIy
lapponing in llo counlry, ono lad lo road sovoraI novspapors.
Zcr|.|c nc!c|i (50,000) vas a raro oxcoplion. Il prosonlod an indopon-
donl poinl of viov bul dofiniloIy Ioanod lovard llo opposilion. Tlo com-
monIy cilod roasons for ils indopondonco voro: (a) llo ovnor vas an
Amorican, aIllougl nalionaIily vas irroIovanl sinco ono of llo ovnors
of loIovision clannoI 1+1, RonaId Iaudor, vas aIso Amorican, (b) il lad
a slrong loam of indopondonl and voII-knovn journaIisls. Tlo bosl
Ukrainian journaIisls vorkod lloro, and lloir laIonls voro rocognizod
by sovoraI prosligious Ukrainian avards.
Zcr|.|c nc!c|i aIIovod journaIisls from ollor prinl modia and loIovi-
sion slalions lo roprinl lloir arlicIos or commonl on llom. Givon llal
sucl viovpoinls voro usuaIIy prolibilod, Zcr|.|c nc!c|i vas a uniquo
pIalform. Tloro, journaIisls vlo lad quil lloir jobs bocauso of consor-
slip couId vork and oarn a Iiving.
1|c |nicrnci
UnforlunaloIy, Ukraino is nol a ligl-locl counlry, bul llo poIilicaI silu-
alion and vioIalions of froodom of spoocl may oxpIain llo oxcoplionaI
roIo of llo Inlornol in llo counlry. Will an audionco of 3 lo 4 porconl of
llo popuIalion, llo Inlornol in Ukraino in 2000 and in 2004 romindod
ono of llo ¨soIf-pubIislod¨ (s.miz!.i¹ modia of llo 1960s, vloro ono
couId road unconsorod arlicIos, gol acquainlod vill difforonl viovpoinls,
parlicipalo in discussions, and find oul unofficiaI vorsions of ovonls.
SimiIarIy, Inlornol silos bocamo a pIalform for lloso journaIisls vlo couId
nol pubIisl lloir maloriaIs vloro lloy vorkod bocauso of consorslip.
IoopIo prinlod onIino arlicIos and look llom lo lloir roIalivos, frionds,
and ovon lo llo ruraI rogions vloro lloir paronls Iivod. Tloso arlicIos
voro ropubIislod in rogionaI prossos, ponolraling lo ovon llo mosl ro-
molo cornors of Ukraino, vloro llo Inlornol is sliII a novoIly.
Tlo numbor of Inlornol usors in Ukraino is incroasing vory sIovIy oving
lo llo Iack of accoss lo compulors for llo gonoraI pubIic, rallor oxponsivo
compulors and Inlornol connoclions, and probIoms vill oId loIoplono
nolvorks. Tloro aro sovoraI lundrod rogislorod novs silos in Ukraino
loday, bul onIy aboul lvo lundrod of lloso aro aclivo and updalod
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 109
roguIarIy. Boforo llo oIoclions, lloro voro moro llan lvo lundrod infor-
malionaI vobsilos, onIy lvonly lo llirly of vlicl voro boing updalod
roguIarIy. Iiko llo prinl modia, llo Wob prosonlod boll pro-govornmonl
and opposilion viovs, llougl llo Iallor rocoivod mucl moro lraffic.
Tlo SDIU(o) las Iong boon prosonl on llo Ukrainian Inlornol. Sinco
2002 il las ompIoyod Russian poIilicaI spociaIisls vlo copiod Russian
vobsilo loclniquos during llo Ukrainian oIoclion campaign. Tloso spo-
ciaIisls croalod a nolvork of vobsilos, oacl of vlicl roprinlod novs
from llo ollors. Wlon informalion appoarod on ono vobsilo, il vas cop-
iod by anollor silo, roforoncing llo firsl silo, llon a llird silo copiod il
and roforoncod llo socond silo, and so on. In llis mannor, llo informa-
lion vas roproducod on sovoraI vobsilos. AIllougl il lad an iniliaI
sourco, il vas difficuIl lo pinpoinl. Aflor llal, ollor modia (loIovision or
novspapor) couId uso llo informalion (usuaIIy disinformalion) as ¨Iaun-
dorod¨ by llo Inlornol.
As lappons so oflon vill Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls, in llis sonso-
Ioss lransfor of poIilicaI loclnoIogy, lloy did nol lako inlo considoralion
ono significanl Ukrainian foaluro: lloro vas Ioss lraffic on llo Ukrai-
nian Inlornol in 2002 llan in Russia, and lloroforo Ioss infIuonco. Aflor
invosling significanl amounls of monoy in an Inlornol campaign in 2002,
llo SDIU(o) Iosl inlorosl in llo Inlornol in 2004. (Tlis is undorslandabIo
bocauso Yanukovycl vas nol roaIIy llo SDIU(o)´s candidalo.) As a ro-
suIl, llo opposilion and llo Donolsk group dominalod llo Wob.
Yuslclonko and lis aIIios mado aclivo uso of llo Inlornol. Ho and
Tymoslonko loId sovoraI Inlornol conforoncos. Yuslclonko´s silo vas
updalod lo llo IovoI of llo bosl Ukrainian novs silos. Il vas a roIiabIo,
slabIo sourco of frosl informalion. Tlo Yuslclonko bIoc lad a silo al
vvv.razom.org.ua, and Yuslclonko lad a porsonaI silo al
Aflor llo vidoIy pubIicizod and rallor pompous oponing of lis
vobsilo (vvv.ya2004.com.ua, llo namo of llo silo aIso moans
¨Mo2004¨), Yanukovycl usod il lo supporl lis ovn ropulalion rallor
llan provido usofuI informalion. Tlo novs vas updalod irroguIarIy.
Tlo Inlornol loam from Donolsk conconlralod on provocalion, vlicl
oxpIains llo lilIos of lloir silos (vvv.provokalor.com.ua or
vvv.bayki.com [o.i|. moans ¨rumor¨j). Tlo silos of llo Donolsk cIan
aro among llo mosl popuIar: IorUm (lllp://for-ua.com), Irom UA
(vvv.from-ua.com), Irovokalsia (vvv.provokalor.com.ua), OIigarcl
(vvv.oIigarl.nol), IoIilbaiky (lllp://bayki.com [Pc|iio.i|µ moans ¨po-
IilicaI rumors¨j), and KID (lllp://zadonbass.org).
110 olena prytula
Tlus far, llo Inlornol las romainod an unroguIalod spaco in Ukraino.
AIllougl Iavs monlioning llo Inlornol lavo causod somo anxioly for
usors, lloy lavo novor boon appIiod lo llo onIino mass modia.
Tlo Inlornol can compolo voII vill loIovision in lorms of llo spood of
ils roaclion lo unfoIding ovonls. Undor curronl condilions of consorslip,
llo Inlornol provod an invaIuabIo informalion rosourco, ono llal suc-
cossfuIIy broko llrougl llo consorslip bIockado.
In llo monlls Ioading up lo llo rovoIulion, llo popuIarily of llo an-
ligovornmonl modia roso slarpIy aflor llo aullorilios forcod ono Inlornol
providor lo ban accoss lo a vobsilo conlaining jokos aboul Yanukovycl.
Tlo inlonlion of llo aullorilios vas llvarlod. Many poopIo lad aIroady
dovnIoadod llo Inlornol jokos lo lloir compulors. In rosponso lo llo
ban, dozons of ollor silos appoarod vill simiIar informalion. Copios
muslroomod, jokos voro sonl via omaiI. Al a corlain poinl, il bocamo
impossibIo for llo aullorilios lo combal undorground lumor by fiIlor-
ing Inlornol conlonl. Ukrainian Wob surfors bocamo soplislicalod. Tloy
Ioarnod lov lo ¨soo¨ llo bannod vobsilo using so-caIIod anonymizors.
Many novs agoncios llon usod llis loclnoIogy lo provonl llo fiIloring
of lloir conlonl.
During llo rovoIulion, llo Inlornol loIpod lo organizo raIIios. Will llo
slricl consorslip of loIovision, llo Inlornol vas llo onIy modium llrougl
vlicl ono couId find ansvors lo basic quoslions: Wlal is llo dalo and
Iocalion of llo noxl mooling` Wlal aro llo pIans of llo opposilion` Wlal
is lapponing in llo slrool` Somolimos ovonls unfoIdod so rapidIy llal
onIy Inlornol modia providod poopIo vill up-lo-dalo informalion.
Tlo numbor of vobsilo lils incroasod as lonsion grov. In Soplombor,
Ukrainian novs vobsilos allraclod 6.3 miIIion visilors, in Oclobor, 8.3
miIIion, and in Novombor, 19.3 miIIion visilors.
Tlo poak occurrod in
Docombor, vlon Viklor Yuslclonko von llo llird round of llo oIoc-
lions. Tlal monll, llo numbor of lils on Ukrainian novs silos roaclod
aImosl lvonly miIIion visilors.
During llo rovoIulion, U|r.ins|. pr.t!. vas llo Ioading silo on llo
Ukrainian Inlornol. On Oclobor 31, in llo firsl round of oIoclions, 130,000
roadors visilod U|r.ins|. pr.t!. from aII around llo vorId (800,000 lils).
In llo socond round, llal numbor grov lo 350,000 roadors (aImosl ono
miIIion lils a day). IinaIIy, in llo llird round, llo silo drov 150,000
roadors (1,800,000 lils).
WliIo llo Orango RovoIulion sproad from Kyiv lo llo rogions, llo
U|r.ins|. pr.t!. silo vas vriling a claplor on llo modorn lislory of
Ukraino. Tlo novs foods from llo rogions voro vilaIIy imporlanl.
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 111
Ivory lon lo fifloon minulos anollor lonl cily appoarod in somo lovn or
ollor, and llal facl vas soon roporlod on llo air. Novs from llo rogions
vas road by opposilion Ioadors on Maidan lo miIIions of Iislonors in llo
slrools llrougloul Ukraino.
Tlousands of Iollors fIoodod llo maiIbox of U|r.ins|. pr.t!.. Ollor
novs agoncios voro aIso vorking around llo cIock. Unian, llo Ukrai-
nian Indopondonl Informalion Agoncy, providod ils novs froo of clargo.
Inlorfax-Ukraino ignorod llo ruIo Iimiling llo numbor of pubIicalions
lo lon novs iloms an lour, as voII as llo ruIo domanding llal llo novs
bo broadcasl aflor a lvo-lour doIay.
InfIuonliaI businoss groups lad boon golling roady for llo prosidonliaI
oIoclion for a Iong limo. A muIlimiIIion-mombor audionco lad aIroady
boon dividod bolvoon compolilivo financiaI-poIilicaI groups, vlicl lad
lo unilo lloir offorls for llo sako of llo pro-aullorily candidalo.
Informalion on vlo ovnod llo loIovision slalions vas nol pubIic,
bul il vas an opon socrol oflon discussod by llo mass modia.
AII llo
major Ukrainian loIovision slalions, vill ono oxcoplion, voro conlroIIod
by pro-prosidonliaI forcos and difforonl financiaI-poIilicaI groups do-
pondonl on llo prosidonl and lis adminislralion.
Tloro aro six major nalionaI clannoIs in Ukraino: llo slalo-ovnod
Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI (UT-1), pIus privaloIy ovnod Inlor, 1+1, Nov
ClannoI (Nctµ K.n.|¹, STB, and ICTV. ClannoI 5 and TRK Ukraina ap-
poarod jusl aflor llo parIiamonlary oIoclions in 2002, bul lloir audioncos
voro smaII.
Inlor, 1+1, and llo Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI voro conlroIIod by llo
(Unilod) SociaI Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino and ils Ioador, Viklor
Modvodcluk. Tlo roprosonlalivos of SDIU(o) officiaIIy ovnod onIy In-
lor. ClannoI 1+1 vas undor SDIU(o) conlroI mainIy bocauso of ils
Ioador´s porsonaI infIuonco on ils Ukrainian ovnor, managomonl, and
odiloriaI slaff. Tlo Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI camo undor Modvodcluk´s
conlroI bocauso of ils oId labil of bIind obodionco lo aullorily. Inlor and
1+1 aro major popuIar clannoIs in Ukraino. Togollor lloy covor 95 por-
conl of llo Ukrainian lorrilory and lloir lolaI audionco is aImosl 48 por-
conl of llo markol.
Tloy offoclivoIy divido llo advorlisomonl markol
bolvoon llom.
Viklor Iincluk, Kuclma´s son-in-Iav, lriod lo slallor llo monopoIy.
OriginaIIy lo ovnod ICTV, Ialor lo purclasod Nov ClannoI and STB.
112 olena prytula
Iincluk joinod lis major nolvork slalions inlo a loIding company, ro-
suIling in a lolaI audionco of 35 porconl, vill nolvork covorago of aboul
70 porconl.
Ollor slalions did nol pIay a significanl roIo in llo modia markol
oxcopl for ono plonomonon among smaII cabIo clannoIs: ClannoI 5.
C|.nnc| 5
}usl aflor llo parIiamonlary oIoclions, llo opposilion slarlod vorking
on a pIan lo broak llrougl llo informalion bIockado. To buy an aIroady
popuIar slalion vill a muIlimiIIion-viovor audionco vas impossibIo for
llo foIIoving roasons: (a) llo modia vas aIroady dividod bolvoon ma-
jor pIayors, (b) lo buy a slalion roquirod Iargo amounls of monoy, vlicl
llo opposilion couId nol afford, considoring llo oxponsivo campaign
aload, and (c) Kuclma´s lolaI slalo conlroI vouId novor aIIov llo op-
posilion lo roaIizo sucl a pIan. Tlo prosidonl´s adminislralion kopl a
valclfuI oyo on any clango in llo slockloIdors of a major mass modia
In 2003, llo opposilion vonlurod lo buy a smaII broadcasling com-
pany caIIod NBM. Il vas IillIo knovn al llal limo, bul il possossod ils
ovn nolvork in Ukraino. Sinco 2002 il lad boon broadcasling lo lvoIvo
Ukrainian rogions (incIuding soull and oasl Ukraino) and Kyiv. Al llo
limo of llo purclaso, llo slalion lad a maximum audionco of 8 miIIion
(llo popuIalion of Ukraino is 48 miIIion), and il covorod onIy 30 porconl
of Ukrainian lorrilory.
Ono of llo nov ovnors of ClannoI 5 vas Iolro Ioroslonko, vlo aIso
ovns llo Ioninska Kuznia slipyard, llo Roslon clocoIalo faclory, and
llo Pr.t!. u|r.µinµ (1rui| c| U|r.inc) novspapor (circuIalion 35,000).
Wlal causod llo onormous succoss of ClannoI 5` Iirsl, lloro lad
boon no aIlornalivo viovpoinl on loIovision in Ukraino vlalsoovor. Viov-
ors knov vlal lo oxpocl from ClannoI 5: undislorlod facls and llo Ial-
osl novs from llo opposilion. Socond, somo laIonlod journaIisls voro
unompIoyod bocauso lloy lad boon consorod by lloir formor ompIoy-
ors in llo modia. ConsoquonlIy, ClannoI 5 lad a numbor of popuIar
anclors vlom llo viovor knov couId bo lruslod.
In addilion, llo slaff and llo ovnors of llo slalion lad signod an
agroomonl according lo vlicl managomonl guaranlood noninlorforonco
in llo croalivo procoss.
Tlo agroomonl vas signod in pubIic, vlicl
incroasod llo rosponsibiIily of llo parlios and drov allonlion lo llo
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 113
clannoI. Tlis bocamo a conlribuling faclor in gaining llo lrusl of Ukrai-
nians in llo clannoI.
OfficiaI consorslip and llo govornmonl´s foar of llo opposilion lad
rosuIlod in a compIolo bIackoul of any Iivo poIilicaI laIk slovs. ClannoI
5 vas aIso llo onIy ono inviling guosls villoul roslriclion. As Andriy
Slovclonko, a ClannoI 5 journaIisl, pul il: ¨Tlo poopIo lavo aImosl for-
gollon vlal il is Iiko lo loar llo novs Iivo, on llo air. Tlo counlry vanls
lo laIk on boll sidos of llo scroon.¨
Il is aIso roIovanl llal llo clannoI rofusod lo slov llo so-caIIod par-
quol ovonls (moolings of ligl govornmonl officiaIs). AII llo ollor clan-
noIs bogan lloir novs programs vill an onumoralion of llo prosidonl´s
moolings, sloving landslakos accompaniod by monolonous commonls.
Dospilo lloso advanlagos, llo slalion´s sludio vas poorIy oquippod.
Al limos ils novs programs Iookod amalourisl, and il lad many prob-
Ioms vill Iivo roporling. Tloso difficuIlios voro bocauso of a Iack of
financing and llo inoxporionco of llo poopIo invoIvod in solling up llo
Tlo form, lovovor, did nol mallor. Conlonl vas far moro imporlanl
for viovors. Tloy cravod difforonl novs, lrullfuI novs. Dospilo aII ils
fauIls and difficuIlios, llo clannoI gainod popuIarily. In jusl fivo monlls,
ClannoI 5´s novs program ¨Rusl Hour¨ slovod a rocord raling of 0.7,
vlicl is good considoring llal nolvork covorago vas jusl 30 porconl.
Of aII modia, radio pIayod llo mosl modosl roIo during llo Orango Rovo-
Iulion. Iong boforo llo oIoclions, llo aullorilios did lloir bosl lo bIock
radio clannoIs from providing indopondonl viovs. Tloy lad considor-
abIo succoss. Among llo novs-basod Ukrainian radio slalions, llo foI-
Ioving varranl monlion:
R.!ic |RA. Tlis slalion boIongs lo llo son of a formor load of llo
Socurily Sorvico of Ukraino (llo SBU), Andriy Dorkacl, vlo mado lis
cloico in favor of Yuslclonko jusl boforo llo oIoclion. Tlis docision savod
llo slalion. Al llal limo llo slalion broadcasl in llirloon rogions on llo
IM band.
|nicrn.iicn.| r.!ic si.iicns, i|c sc-c.||c! Wcsicrn tciccs. Vcicc c| Amcric.,
R.!ic Iiocriµ, Dcuisc|c Wc||c, .n! i|c BBC. Tloso radio slalions conlinuod
114 olena prytula
broadcasling on llo slorl vavos, as during llo CoId War. Somo rogionaI
IM slalions, lovovor, aIso robroadcasl llom.
R.!ic Ccniincni. Tlis vas llo onIy radio slalion llal broadcasl Wosl-
orn voicos in Kyiv. In Ialo 1998, Hoorliy Gongadzo loslod programs on
llis slalion. In Marcl 2004 llo aullorilios slul il dovn. Ils ovnor, Sorliy
SloIokl, rocoivod poIilicaI asyIum in llo Unilod Slalos.
Puo|ic R.!ic. Tlis slalion, vlicl vas sponsorod by inlornalionaI ra-
dio organizalions, vas rofusod a broadcasling Iiconso by llo NalionaI
ToIovision and Broadcasling CounciI of Ukraino. Tlis forcod llo slalion
lo broadcasl on llo Inlornol, rosuIling in a vory Iimilod audionco of fif-
loon lundrod lo lvo llousand a day. IopuIar journaIisls from ollor
modia loslod ils programs. IubIic Radio docIarod llal il vouId foIIov
llo inlornalionaI nonaffiIialion slandards vliIo prosonling informalion
and inviling guosls inlo llo sludio. CIosor lo llo rovoIulion, llis slalion´s
programs bogan appoaring on llo ollor slalions in Kyiv and llo ro-
gions, prinl and Inlornol modia pubIislod ils mosl inlorosling inlorviovs.
IubIic Radio gavo froo roporls and programs lo llo rogionaI radio
slalions, and program lranscripls lo llo prinlod modia. Sinco Soplom-
bor 2004, IRA lad boon broadcasling IubIic Radio´s mosl prominonl
programs. IRA, Iiko many ollors, aIso robroadcasl BBC novs. Ivon
villoul a broadcasling Iiconso, llo moro oxislonco of llo slalion irri-
lalod llo aullorilios and domonslralod llo possibiIily of an informalion
broakllrougl on llo Inlornol.
R.!ic Iiocriµ, i|c Vcicc c| Amcric., .n! R.!ic Ccniincni. Radio Dovira
sloppod robroadcasling Radio Iiborly on Iobruary 17, 2004. Dovira al-
lribulod llo docision lo inconsisloncy bolvoon llo novs producl of Ra-
dio Iiborly and ils ovn concopl. Aflorvard Radio Iiborly couId bo loard
on Radio Conlinonl. Yol in oarIy Marcl 2004, llo aullorilios cIosod dovn
llo slalion. Tlo slalomonls of officiaI U.S. roprosonlalivos of Radio Iib-
orly, Voico of Amorica, and Radio Conlinonl foII on doaf oars. Tloir
moolings vill llo Ukrainian govornmonl provod fruilIoss.
In ApriI 2004 llo clairs of Radio Iiborly, Voico of Amorica, and Ra-
dio Conlinonl visilod Ukraino. Tlo roprosonlalivo of Radio Iiborly an-
nouncod llal llo raling anaIysis for llo slalion pul ils audionco al noarIy
8.4 porconl of llo popuIalion. Ho omplasizod llal ovon for a commor-
ciaI radio slalion, 5 porconl vas a significanl raling.
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 115
In }uno 2004 a mombor of llo board of diroclors of Radio Iiborly,
Gooffroy Girslborg, mol vill llo spoakor of llo Ukrainian parIiamonl,
VoIodymyr Iylvyn. Tlo spoakor sonl a Iollor lo llo govornmonl sum-
marizing llo rosuIls of llal mooling and roquosling loIp lo gol Radio
Iiborly back on llo air.
Bul broadcasling vas conlroIIod by llo prosi-
donl or llo govornmonl, nol parIiamonl.
Radio Iiborly slarlod signing robroadcasling agroomonls vill rogionaI
slalions, sucl as Radio Takl in Vinnylsia. Il vas nol oasy. Tlo doall of
llo load of llo IoIlava rogionaI radio company, Yuriy Cloclyk, ro-
mainod suspicious. Ho lad diod in a car accidonl on lis vay lo llo capi-
laI, vloro lo vas lo sign a robroadcasling agroomonl vill Radio Iib-
orly. In Soplombor 2004, Radio NART (Honosl SignaI), bougll on llo
ovo of llo oIoclions by Yuslclonko supporlors, bogan robroadcasling
Radio Iiborly.
AIllougl gonoraI dala on llo radio audionco in Ukraino aro nol roadiIy
avaiIabIo, rosoarcl by llo SIRIX Markoling Sorvico slovs llal llo au-
dionco of llo mosl popuIar novs radio in Novombor and Docombor 2004
in llo capilaI (during llo loal of rovoIulionary ovonls), Radio IRA, vas
rallor smaII: aboul fifly llousand poopIo.
Tlis vas an insignificanl
clango from Augusl and Soplombor 2004, vlon aboul 47.5 llousand
Kyiv rosidonls Iislonod lo Radio IRA.
Iiko Inlornol vobsilos, radio slalions usod lumor as a voapon againsl
llo rogimo. On llo ovo of llo oIoclion, many IM slalions broadcasl comic
advorlisomonls llal ridicuIod pro-rogimo candidalo Viklor Yanukovycl,
vlo fainlod vlon somoono llrov an ogg al lim. IoIilicaI jokos and
rlymos voro aIso popuIar.
In Novombor, Radio Kyiv docidod lo broadcasl around llo cIock.
Tlo programs of llis and ollor radio slalions voro broadcasl rigll in
llo campus of froodom on Maidan and Klroslclalyk, vlicl voro fiIIod
vill llo lonls of domonslralors. GaIa Radio oponod ils novs offico rigll
in llo campus lo broadcasl novs and music lo llo inlabilanls of llo
lonl cily.
Un|.ir Aciicns .g.insi U|r.ini.n M.ss Mc!i.
Tlo foIIoving is a Iisl of oxampIos of llo mosl unfair aclions of llo au-
llorilios againsl llo mass modia in Ukraino in 2004:
1. In Iobruary 2004, Radio Iiborly vas doniod llo opporlunily lo
broadcasl on IM froquoncios. As a rosuIl, poopIo couId Iislon lo il
116 olena prytula
onIy on slorl vavo, as in Soviol limos. IoopIo cIoso lo llo SDIU(o)
bougll llo froquoncios on vlicl Radio Iiborly lad proviousIy
2. Radio Iiborly slarlod broadcasling on a difforonl IM slalion,
Radio Conlinonl, vlicl aIso broadcasl llo novs of llo Ukrai-
nian BBC, Voico of Amorica, Doulsclo WoIIo, IoIisl Radio, and
IubIic Radio. In oarIy Marcl 2004, Radio Conlinonl vas cul off,
purporlodIy bocauso of a Iiconsing probIom.
3. In }uIy 2004, llo gonoraI prosoculor´s offico (GIO) accusod llo
VoIia cabIo company of dislribuling pornograply, unIiconsod
broadcasling, and monoy Iaundoring. Ono of llo roasons for llo
GIO´s inlorosl in llo slalion vas llo robroadcasling of ClannoI 5
programs by ils cabIo nolvork.
VoIia, vlicl boIongs lo llo in-
lornalionaI invoslmonl company Ukrainian Grovll Iund and is
managod by llo inlornalionaI company SigmaBIoyzor, lad boon
broadcasling lo moro llan fivo lundrod llousand subscribors in
4. On fourloon occasions, various prinling officos rofusod lo prinl
an odilion of llo Donolsk rogionaI opposilion novspapor Osirct
5. In Marcl 2004, oigll monlls boforo llo oIoclion, llo courl vill-
drov ClannoI 5´s broadcasling riglls, docIaring ils Iiconso iIIo-
gaI. Tlo Kyiv loIovision company TV-Tabacluk, ovnod by
Donolsk roprosonlalivos, brougll suil againsl ClannoI 5 for llo
rigll lo broadcasl on llo samo froquoncy. Tloy pIannod lo broad-
casl for llo Kyiv rogion boginning in Soplombor 2004. On Oclo-
bor 14, ClannoI 5 vas prolibilod from broadcasling in Kyiv bo-
causo il Iackod a Iiconso lloro. Tlon, on Oclobor 18, llo courl
docidod lo soizo ClannoI 5´s accounls. Tlo company´s accounls
voro frozon as a rosuIl of a courl cIaim brougll by mombor of
parIiamonl VoIodymyr Syvkovycl,
vlo loadod llo parIiamon-
lary commission rosponsibIo for llo invosligalion of Viklor
Yuslclonko´s poisoning. Bocauso of llo Iiconsing probIom, llo
clannoI survivod undor uncorlain condilions unliI llo oIoclion.
Ils accounls voro unfrozon onIy llroo days boforo. Tlo aullorilios
did nol daro lo cIoso llo clannoI dovn. Insload, in llo faII of
2004, llo aullorilios look a difforonl roulo, cIosing dovn Clan-
noI 5 in spocific rogions of Ukraino. According lo llo soparalo
docisions of difforonl rogionaI aullorilios, llo clannoI vas cIosod
dovn in Transcarpallia, Klarkiv, Donolsk, Kirovolrad,
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 117
Dnipropolrovsk, and MykoIaiv.
Somo cabIo oporalors voIunlar-
iIy cIosod dovn llo clannoI, vliIo ollors mado il parl of a moro
oxponsivo packago.
Media Trends beInre the EIectinn
2004. 1|c Yc.r c| i|c ||cciicn
Tlo main lronds in llo Ukrainian mass modia boforo llo oIoclion voro:
- Roinforcomonl of llo propaganda oIomonl and roduclion of infor-
malion conlonl
- Conslrainls on llo froodom of spoocl
- Moro vidosproad dislribulion of lomnyky lo inslrucl journaIisls
on vlal issuos lloy voro lo roporl during a parlicuIar vook and in
vlal mannor, as a rosuIl, llo novs roporls givon on difforonl clan-
noIs bocamo slrikingIy simiIar (vlicl vas mind-numbing for llo
- A Iack of compolilion in novs broadcasling, smoars againsl llo
profossionaIism of journaIisls. ¨RoaI¨ journaIisls simpIy lad no nood
lo claso aflor novs and sonsalionaI slorios
- A Iack of immodialo roaclion lo ovonls, a Iack of Iivo discussion on
curronl lopics
- A riso in Inlornol roadorslip lo 8 porconl
According lo a loIovision viovors´ survoy conduclod by llo Acad-
omy of Ukrainian Iross and llo Inslilulo of SocioIogy of llo NalionaI
Acadomy of Scioncos of Ukraino, ¨On llo main TV slalions, llo novs
vas incroasingIy Iimilod lo a singIo viovpoinl in comparison vill }uno.
Sucl covorago roaclod 90 porconl and liglor.¨
In llo summor, four monlls boforo llo oIoclion, 98 porconl of llo
ovoning novs conlonl on llo Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI roprosonlod ono
poinl of viov. Ior llo clannoIs Ukraina, 1+1, Inlor, ICTV, STB, and llo
Nov ClannoI, llo porconlagos voro 96, 92, 91, 90, 89, and 88, rospoc-
livoIy. MoanvliIo, llo Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI, 1+1, and Inlor did nol
broadcasl any slalomonls al aII by Viklor Yuslclonko and OIoksandr
Moroz. ClannoI UT÷1 vouId nol broadcasl any slalomonls by any op-
posilion poIilician vlalsoovor. Tlis silualion porsislod llrougloul llo
courso of llo vloIo oIoclion campaign, unliI llo boginning of llo ¨jour-
naIislic roboIIion.¨
118 olena prytula
In Soplombor and Oclobor, a monll boforo llo oIoclion, a singIo viov-
poinl on llo unfoIding ovonls conlinuod lo dominalo llo novs covor-
ago, from moro llan 90 porconl on llo Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI lo 66 por-
conl on ClannoI 5.
If slalomonls by Viklor Yanukovycl rocoivod llroo
limos moro novs limo llan lloso of Viklor Yuslclonko in llo firsl vook
of Oclobor (1,514 soconds againsl 445 soconds for Yuslclonko), llo pro-
porlion grov lo fourfoId in llo firsl vook of Novombor (1,884 againsl
447 soconds). Tlo Inlor and Ukraina clannoIs gavo six and ninoloon limos
moro novs limo lo Viklor Yanukovycl, rospoclivoIy.
Tlo D-Day of llo Ukrainian modia rosislanco movomonl vas Oclo-
bor 28, 2004. Tlroo days boforo llo oIoclion, forly journaIisls, roprosonl-
ing fivo loIovision slalions, pubIicIy docIarod llal lloy vouId nol oboy
lomnyky, or socrol inslruclions.
Ono day aflor llal, roprosonlalivos of
oiglloon loIovision slalions and modia companios joinod llo journaIisls
in rofusing lo foIIov llo govornmonl´s lomnyky.
UnforlunaloIy, llis ovonl did nol infIuonco viovors or volors lo llo
oxlonl lopod. Tlo faiIuro vas llo rosuIl of povorfuI modia indoclrina-
lion during llo provious sovoraI monlls. Moroovor, dospilo llo rofusaI
of a numbor of journaIisls lo vork undor consorslip, llo gonoraI lrond
on llo major loIovision clannoIs vas unaffoclod. Ixporls nolicod gon-
oraI clangos in broadcasling, bul llo main anaIylicaI programs voro
sliII biasod and fuII of propaganda.
Tlo inilialivo sliflod lo llo Inlornol, vloro on Oclobor 25 llo civic
inilialivo ¨Tlo Orango Ribbon¨ ovoIvod.
As a rosuIl, lundrods and
llousands of orango ribbons appoarod on cars, Iadios´ landbags, back-
packs, bicycIos, suils, lals, Inlornol bannors, and llo lilIo pagos of
vobsilos. IniliaI supporl for llis campaign camo from llo popuIalion of
Kyiv. IoopIo domonslralod lloir unily vill llo orango ribbon and in
ollor vays, nol onIy lo supporl Yuslclonko as a prosidonliaI candi-
dalo, bul aIso lo oxpross disagroomonl vill llo biasod modia and vill
llo faIsificalion of oIoclion rosuIls. IoopIo vill orango ribbons smiIod
invoIunlariIy as lloy passod by ono anollor, and unfamiIiar poopIo
groolod ono anollor as llougl lloy voro famiIy. Tlo gosluro bocamo
an opon prolosl againsl llo aullorilios and againsl lloso vlo closo lo
supporl llom. Al llal poinl, somo loIovision anclors froquonlIy ap-
poarod in orango puIIovors ovon vlon llo novs lloy roporlod slovod
no lraco of journaIislic ollics. No ono couId prolibil llom from voaring
Yuslclonko´s slaff managod lo inslaII a mobiIo loIovision unil on
Maidan and ronlod a saloIIilo clannoI. Iivo broadcasls voro frooIy
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 119
avaiIabIo around llo cIock lo any loIovision company in llo vorId and
lo any viovor vill a saloIIilo aoriaI. During llo oIoclion campaign llo
opposilion usod lugo mobiIo loIovision scroons. Wlon a raIIy vas an-
nouncod in llis or llal cily, a mobiIo vorkslalion vill a Iargo scroon vas
sol up, and poopIo voro slovn a documonlary or llo main ovonls on
Maidan. On Soplombor 18, on Iuropoan Squaro in Kyiv Yuslclonko do-
Iivorod lis firsl pubIic spoocl aflor lis poisoning. Tlo spoocl vas broad-
casl Iivo by saloIIilo lo llo Iargosl squaros of aImosl aII rogionaI conlors,
vloro laIf a miIIion poopIo valclod il.
Bypassing officiaI loIovision
clannoIs, mosl Ukrainians couId valcl and loar Yuslclonko spoak.
In discussing llo roIo of Ukrainian journaIisls in llo rovoIulion, ono
cannol ignoro llo facl llal journaIisls and llo poIico voro llo Iasl pro-
fossions lo join llo rovoIulion. Tlo rovoIulion bogan on Novombor 22.
Tlal vas llo momonl vlon llo firsl lonls appoarod on Maidan. Clan-
noI 5 vas llo onIy ono lo broadcasl llo firsl signs of unrosl and pubIic
civiI disobodionco.
Tlo pivolaI momonl for llo Ukrainian mass modia vas Novombor
25, vlon llo consorslip syslom so aplIy conslruclod by llo rogimo coI-
Iapsod Iiko a louso of cards. Tlal vas llo day vlon llo commilmonl lo
covor llo ovonls fuIIy and villoul projudico vas broadcasl on loIovi-
sion. Ivorylling bogan in a vory symboIic mannor: llo doaf poopIo of
Ukraino voro llo firsl lo loar llo lrull. On Tlursday, Novombor 25,
NalaIia Dmylruk, a sign-Ianguago inlorprolor on llo slalo loIovision
clannoI, ignorod llo anclorvoman´s loxl aboul llo oIoclion rosuIls. In-
sload, slo loId lor viovors: ¨Tlo officiaI rosuIls from llo ConlraI IIoc-
lion Commission lavo boon faIsifiod. Do nol lrusl llom. Yuslclonko is
our prosidonl. I´m roaIIy sorry llal I lad lo lransIalo Iios boforo. I viII
nol do llis again. I´m nol suro if I viII soo you again.¨
Tlo slalomonl by Dmylruk vas foIIovod by docIaralions by llo slalo
loIovision clannoI and clannoI 1+1.
Tlo loIovision slalion ovnod by
Viklor Iincluk, ICTV, docidod lo broadcasl novs aboul Ukraino in llo
slyIo of llo Ioading foroign modia. Tlis loclniquo aIIovod il lo broadon
modia covorago and counlor llo biasod roporling slyIo of Russian loIo-
vision slalions, vlicl voro doIiboraloIy dislorling informalion coming
from Ukraino. Ior llo firsl limo during llo oIoclion, llo opposilion ap-
poarod on nalionaI loIovision, and govornmonl-conlroIIod loIovision sla-
lions prosonlod Yuslclonko in a posilivo Iigll.
Irom llis poinl, Maidan prolosls bocamo llo main subjocl of Ukrai-
nian loIovision. Iorgollon laIk slovs voro back on air, animalod by
guosls roprosonling opposing sidos of llo poIilicaI spoclrum and llo
120 olena prytula
barricados. Unbiasod novs vas back loo. ClannoI 5 and llo Kyiv Com-
munily ClannoI broadcasl diroclIy from Maidan.
ClannoI 5 vas nov rankod llird in popuIarily among nalionvido
loIovision slalions, vill an audionco of 11 porconl.
Tlo mosl popuIar
slalion in Ukraino vas Inlor, vill 22.6 porconl. In socond pIaco vas clan-
noI 1+1 vill 16.1 porconl. Tlon camo Nov ClannoI and ICTV (7.0 por-
conl and 6.4 porconl, rospoclivoIy). Tlo govornmonl clannoI UT÷1 vas
in sixll pIaco (6.3 porconl), and TRK Ukraina vas sovonll, vill 4.7
Tlo samo lapponod vill Inlornol roadors. Tlo Inlornol audionco roso
50 porconl during llo oIoclion. According lo a Docombor 2004 summary,
Ukrainian Inlornol usors numborod 5,905,465, or 12 porconl of llo popu-
Ialion, in Oclobor llal numbor lad boon around four miIIion, or 8
AII llis causod unprocodonlod oponnoss by Kuclma and lis admin-
islralion during lloir Iasl days in povor. Tlo loIovision slalions voro
broadcasling dirocl foods from Koncla Zaspa, a smaII viIIago vloro llo
collagos of llo formor Ukrainian oIilo voro Iocalod. Tloro, Kuclma con-
duclod anlicrisis llink-lank moolings vill Yanukovycl and
Modvodcluk. Ialor llo slalions broadcasl llo pross conforoncos foIIov-
ing roundlabIo nogolialions bolvoon llo aullorilios and llo opposilion
undor llo aogis of inlornalionaI obsorvors and modialors.

Tlo Orango RovoIulion oponod a pall for a Ukrainian modia rovoIu-
lion, and journaIisls voro al llo rool of llal rovoIulion. SovoraI faclors
conlribulod lo llo clango and roquiro furllor dovoIopmonl.
1. Tlis is a slory of a modia undorground rosisling llo rogimo, fi-
naIIy rosuIling in a roadinoss lo figll for ono´s riglls. Tlo lragody
of Gongadzo and slricl consorslip domonslralod llal journaIisls
facod common probIoms and llroals. Tlis avakoning Iod lo pro-
fossionaI unions, llo formalion of IocaI froo-spoocl groups, and
parIiamonlary loarings on froodom of spoocl and consorslip.
2. Tlo oxislonco of an indopondonl modia, sucl as ClannoI 5, Zcr|.|c
iµz|ni., and llo Inlornol vas imporlanl. Tlo Iauncl of ClannoI
5, vlicl broadcasl in llo capilaI and in koy rogions, vas cruciaI.
Il vas parlicuIarIy imporlanl, givon llo rogimo´s slricl consor-
slip poIicy, llal llo Inlornol provido nov opporlunilios for indo-
pondonl modia. Ils main advanlago is llal il doos nol roquiro a
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 121
Iargo invoslmonl. UsuaIIy, indopondonl modia pIalforms aro cro-
alod by voII-knovn journaIisls vlo aro voII avaro of profos-
sionaI ollics and capabIo of dofonding lloir profossionaI riglls.
Tloso journaIisls musl lavo good managomonl skiIIs. Ukraino
noods moro llan numorous foroign lrips, oxclangos, and lrain-
ing sominars, il noods lraining for modia managors.
3. Corlain porsonaI oxampIos and inslancos of coIIoclivo rosislanco
conlribulod lo llo viclory: for oxampIo, llo pubIic confronlalion
bolvoon llo ClannoI 5 journaIisls and llo aullorilios. ClannoI
5´s viclorious pubIic prolosl provod llal journaIisls can prolocl
lloir rigll lo broadcasl unconsorod informalion ovon undor noar-
lolaI modia conlroI.
4. Corporalo and pubIic conlroI ovor modia aclivilios vas ossonliaI.
Ukraino noods a liglIy dovoIopod civiI socioly and infIuonliaI
pubIic organizalions llal viII bo abIo lo clango modia bolavior
slouId journaIisls vioIalo profossionaI ollics. Anclors and roporl-
ors vlo Iiod on llo air lad difficuIlios vlon facing lloir roIalivos
and lloso crilicaI coIIoaguos vlo lad llo priviIogo of vorking in
llo froo modia. Sucl journaIisls lad lo landIo llo cynicaI slalo-
monls of poIilicians vlo brazonIy cIaimod llal no consorslip
oxislod. SociaI conlroI and ollicaI slandards voro vilaI. Tlo pIaco
for sociaI dobalo in Ukraino vas llo ToIokrilika vobsilo
(vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua), vlicl foalurod gonuino discussions
of profossionaI ollics. SovoraI civic inslilulions monilorod llo
loIovision broadcasls and llo pross, issuing monllIy roporls and
pubIicizing llo rosuIls of lloir rosoarcl.
5. Willoul llo capiluIalion of modia managomonl, llo modia rovo-
Iulion migll lavo provod far Ioss offoclivo. Modia manipuIalion
loclnoIogios faiIod bocauso of llo prosonco of aIlornalivo sourcos
of informalion, vlicl mado managors undorsland llal lloy lad
lo clango lloir novs covorago. Il bocamo ovidonl lo modia man-
agors llal llo aullorilios vouId nol bo abIo lo lang on lo povor.
IvonluaIIy lloy oillor Iol lloir journaIisls acl frooIy or ovon joinod
llom in lloir slruggIo for froodom of spoocl.
6. Tlo Orango RovoIulion vas llo firsl rovoIulion lo uso modorn locl-
noIogy and llo Inlornol lo fuII advanlago. Iunny slorios, jokos, and
symboIs of llo rovoIulion voro sonl from ono friond lo anollor
using omaiI, bIogs, and ovon slorl mossago sorvicos. Wobsilos llal
providod froo accoss lo rovoIulionary songs and jokos aboul llo
govornmonl-backod candidalo bocamo oxlromoIy popuIar.
122 olena prytula
WliIo proparing llis claplor, I ropoalod in my momory llo vloIo
slory of llo Orango RovoIulion. You can find il÷day by day, minulo by
minulo÷on llo vobsilos llal covorod lloso rovoIulionary days. Any-
body on llo Ukrainian Inlornol can find llis rocord of conlomporary
Hundrods of yoars ago ono noodod sovoraI yoars lo pul lislory on
papor, lo vrilo a book. Nov vo can valcl a rovoIulion in anollor coun-
lry on loIovision and llo Inlornol. Tlo Orango RovoIulion vas llo firsl
lo lappon moslIy as a rosuIl of gIobaIizalion and llo dovoIopmonl of
nov modia loclnoIogios.

1. Irom a slalomonl mado in parIiamonl by Kuclma. Gc|cs u|r.µinµ, }uno 1994.
2. YuIia Moslova, ¨Tak klo zlo prikryI Iiubimuiu programmu prozidonla`¨ [Wlo CIosod
llo Irosidonl´s Iavorilo Irogram`j, Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., }anuary 6÷12, 1996, avaiIabIo al
3. Vakllang Kipani, inlorviov vill ICTV diroclor Dmilry KisoIov, Kicts|ic tc!cmcsii,
avaiIabIo al lllp://kipiani.org/samizdal/indox.cgi`378.
4. Inlorfax-Ukraino, Docombor 17, 2002.
5. Moroz´s slalomonl in parIiamonl, Inlorfax-Ukraino, Novombor 28, 2000.
6. ¨Transcripl: Wlal Do MoInyclonko´s Tapos Say aboul Gongadzo Caso`¨ Radio Iroo
Iuropo/Radio Iiborly, Marcl 3, 2005, avaiIabIo al vvv.rforI.org/foalurosarlicIo/2005/
7. Dopuly Inlorior Minislor MykoIa Dzliga´s slalomonl, RIA Novosli, May 16, 2001, avaiI-
abIo al vvv.korrospondonl.nol/main/19478/.
8. Tlo firsl arlicIo in llo Ukrainian pross on icmnµ|µ. ¨Modvodcluk vanls lo bo llo
llird prosidonl,¨ U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Marcl 25, 2002, avaiIabIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/
9. Ior a fov oxampIos, soo: Vakllang Kipani, ¨1cmnµ|µ. Tlo Bosl,¨ U|r.ins|. pr.t!.,
Oclobor 27, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/novs/2004/10/27/13093.llm.
10. Andriy Slovclonko, parIiamonlary slalomonl, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Docombor 4, 2002,
avaiIabIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/arclivo/2002/docombor/4/3.sllmI.
11. ¨Ukrainska prosa goluolsia do slraiuku¨ [Tlo Ukrainian Iross Iroparos lo Slrikoj,
U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Oclobor 5, 2002, avaiIabIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/arclivo/2002/
12. ¨Tlo Iross in Ukraino,¨ BBC Ncus, Iobruary 7, 2005, avaiIabIo al lllp://
novs.bbc.co.uk/1/li/vorId/ouropo/4073375.slm. Soo aIso NallaIia Gabor and Zoya
Skoropadonko, ¨Tlo Ukrainian Modia Iandscapo,¨ Iuropoan }ournaIism Conlro,
Oclobor 2002, avaiIabIo al vvv.ojc.nI/jr/omIand/ukraino.llmI. Soo aIso vobsilo of
Kicts|ic tc!cmcsiµ al vvv.kv.com.ua/`m=aboul.
13. Ibid.
14. Viklor Clivokunia, ¨Sail anokdoliv pro Yanukovycla zabIokovanii¨ [Yanukovycl
}oko Silo BIockodj, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Oclobor 12, 2004, avaiIabIo al
15. GIobaInaia slalislika inlornola (GIobaI Inlornol Slalislics), Spulnik Modia, avaiIabIo al
the ukrai ni an medi a rebelli on 123
16. 1c|c|riii|., }uno 18, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/lvvook/`id=15965.
17. ¨'1+1' podIozlil privilizalsii¨ ['1+1' Subjocl lo Irivalizalionj, Kcmmcrs.ni, }uIy 18, 2005,
avaiIabIo al vvv.kommorsanl.ua/doc.llmI`DocID=591713&IssuoId=29697.
18. TV ralings, avaiIabIo al vvv.priorilol.lv/pagos/roiling.plp.
19. MiklaiIo Kramaronko, inlorviov vill llo loads of ClannoI 5, 1c|c|riii|., May 26,
2003, avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/inlorviov/`id=8873.
20. An agroomonl signod by ClannoI 5 slaff and llo ovnors of llo slalion 1c|c|riii|.,
}uno 11, 2003, avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/commonls/`id=9111.
21. AIoksandr MikloIson, inlorviov vill Andriy Slovclonko, 1c|c|riii|., Oclobor 13, 2003,
avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/inlorviov/`id=11231.
22. NalaIia Iigaclova, inlorviov vill Andriy Slovclonko, 1c|c|riiicism, Marcl 5, 2004,
avaiIabIo al lllp://loIokrilika.kiov.ua/inlorviov/`id=14110.
23. ¨Kakijo novosli sIuslal´, doIzlna roslal audilorija, a no prosidonl i oIigarli¨ [IoopIo
SlouId Docido Wlal lo Walcl, Nol llo Irosidonl or OIigarclsj, 1ct.ris|c|, 26 (ApriI
2004), avaiIabIo al vvv.lovarisl.com.ua/arclivo/611/Kakyo_novosly_s.llmI.
24. ¨'Svoboda´ la 'GoIos Amoryky´ majul´ povornulysia v ukrajinskyj ofir¨ [Radio Iib-
orly and llo Voico of Amorica Musl Rolurn lo llo Ukrainian Airvavosj, 1c|c|riii|.,
}uno 12, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/novs/`id=15869.
25. SIRIX Markoling Sorvico Rosoarcl, Novombor÷Docombor 2004, avaiIabIo al lllp://
26. Ibid., Augusl÷Soplombor, 2004, avaiIabIo al lllp://ofm.nol.ua/indox.plp`oplion=
27. Sorgoi Ioslclonko, inlorviov vill Iolro Ioroslonko, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., }uIy 30, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv2.pravda.com.ua/ru/arclivo/2004/juIy/30/1.sllmI.
28. Ibid.
29. ¨NalsionaIna rada z pilan loIobaclonnia i radiomovIonnia zakriIa ocli na probIomu
nozakonnikl vimknon po Ukraini loIoporodacl '5 kanaIu´¨ [Tlo NalionaI Commilloo
on ToIovision and Radio CIosod Ils Iyos lo llo IrobIom of llo IIIogaI Culoff of Clan-
noI 5´s Irograms in Ukrainoj, 1c|c|riii|., Oclobor 13, 2004, avaiIabIo al
30. ¨IovidomIon iz sinklronom V. Yanukovycla u sorpnovikl vipuskakl novin
zaIislaolsia vdvicli biIslo, nizl u V. Yuslclonka¨ [Tloro Is Tvo Timos Moro Novs
on Yanukovycl in Augusl llan Novs on Yuslclonkoj, 1c|c|riii|., Augusl 9, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/novs/`id=17275.
31. ¨Moniloring poIilicloskikl novosloi¨ [Moniloring of llo IoIilicaI Novsj, 1c|c|riii|.,
Oclobor 19, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/mon_lvnovs/`id=18777.
32. ¨No lo consorslip!¨ }ournaIisl´s slalomonl, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Oclobor 28, 2004, avaiI-
abIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/novs/2004/10/28/13127.llm.
33. ¨IubIiclno zadokIarirovannaia rodaklsionnaia poIilika¨ [IdiloriaI IoIilics IubIicIy
DocIarodj, 1c|c|riii|., Oclobor 29, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/
34. ¨Kiovskoio molro poviazano oranzlovymi Ionlami¨ [Kyiv Molro Tiod vill Orango
Ribbonsj, Sµ|. n.rc!u, Oclobor 28, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.siIanaroda.com/
35. ¨Viklora Yuslclonka pocluIa i pobacliIa vsia Ukraina¨ [AII Ukraino Hoard and Sav
Viklor Yuslclonkoj, on llo vobsilo of Yuslclonko´s poIilicaI bIoc, avaiIabIo al
36. Igor Zldanov and Yuriy Yakimonko, ¨IormuIa oranzlovoi pobody: zamolki
noposloronnikl nabIiudaloIoi¨ [Tlo IormuIa for Orango Viclory: Nolos from Dirocl
Obsorvorsj, Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., }anuary 22÷28, 2005, avaiIabIo al vvv.zorkaIo-nodoIi.com/
124 olena prytula
37. Unian, Novombor 25, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/novs/2004/11/25/
38. Ibid., avaiIabIo al vvv.pravda.com.ua/novs/2004/11/25/14167.llm ¨1+1¨ Slalo-
monl. vvv.1pIus1.nol/aboul/novs.pllmI`637.
39. According lo a survoy conduclod by GfK÷USM.
40. Inlorfax-Ukraino, ¨'5 kanaI´ vysloI na lrol´o moslo po roilingu loIokanaIov v Ukraino¨
[ClannoI 5 Movos inlo Tlird IIaco among Ukrainian TV Slalionsj, Docombor 6, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv.loIokrilika.kiov.ua/novs/`id=19715
41. GIobaInaia slalislika inlornola (GIobaI Inlornol Slalislics), Spulnik Modia, avaiIabIo al
chapter seven
Western Influence
oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
western engagement in the 2004 Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion
bogan Iong boforo llo volo look pIaco and romains a lolIy dobalod issuo.
Viklor Yanukovycl´s formor campaign diroclor VyaclosIav ClornoviI,
for oxampIo, arguod in a }uIy 25, 2005, inlorviov llal llo Unilod Slalos
lad boon lrying lo bring Viklor Yuslclonko inlo povor sinco llo oarIy
To assoss llo roIo of llo Wosl roaIislicaIIy, vo musl dislinguisl myll
from roaIily, vlicl is llo objoclivo of llis claplor. Yol porcoplions, ovon
myllicaI onos, of llo roIo of llo Wosl and various individuaI Woslorn
aclors voro an inlograI parl of llo 2004 Ukrainian poIilicaI campaign
and lad a roaI impacl.
Sinco llo Orango RovoIulion, sovoraI comprolonsivo anaIysos of llo 2004 poIilicaI clangos
lavo boon pubIislod in Ukraino and abroad. Tlo oxlornaI impacl on llo 2004 oIoclion las
boon llo focus of sovoraI papors, incIuding a spociaI issuo of N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc
magazino from llo Razumkov Conlor (no. 5, 2004). Tlo comprolonsivo book Prcsi!cnii.|
||cciicns .n! ji|c} Or.ngc Rctc|uiicn. |mp|ic.iicns |cr U|r.inc´s 1r.nsiiicn, from llo Iriodricl
Iborl Ioundalion (HoImul Kurll and Iris Kompo, odilors, Kyiv, 2005), aIso conlains a
claplor by Kompo and Iryna SoIononko on foroign supporl. In llis claplor, vo uso slalis-
licaI dala and quolalions firsl pubIislod in lloso pubIicalions. Nolo llal OIoksandr Suslko
conlribulod lo llo roporl on Ukraino in Iroodom Houso´s N.iicns in 1r.nsii 2005. Somo of
llo assossmonls in llis claplor aro basod on llal book.
126 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
°Western InterIerenceº and Dnmestic PnIicy Debates
Dobalos on llo roIo of llo Wosl in Ukraino´s 2004 prosidonliaI campaign
bogan a yoar boforo llo oIoclions, inspirod by Goorgia´s Roso RovoIu-
lion. Tlo Goorgian caso slockod Ukraino´s posl-Soviol oIilo, vlicl lad
boon oIaboraling ils slralogy for llo succossion of povor. Irosidonl Io-
onid Kuclma and lis onlourago vanlod lo provonl sucl a sconario in
Ukraino. Tloy accusod Goorgia´s nov Ioadors of massivo uso of Wosl-
orn supporl. Sucl clargos voro supporlod by a sorios of inlorviovs on
llo roIo of llo Unilod Slalos, and of Goorgo Soros porsonaIIy, givon by
formor Goorgian prosidonl Iduard Slovardnadzo lo llo Russian mass
modia. Tlo officiaI Iino slrossod llal llo mass movomonls voro inspirod
from llo oulsido and voro connoclod vill Slovardnadzo´s formor lrans-
ocoanic palrons´ dissalisfaclion vill lis poIicios.
Ukrainian Ioadors jusl ropoalod llal viovpoinl: ¨Tlo procoss of povor
lransfor can lako pIaco onIy by llo viII of llo nalion. Willoul manipuIa-
lions and oxlornaI inlorvonlions. According lo Slovardnadzo sucl in-
lorvonlions look pIaco in Goorgia,¨ Irosidonl Kuclma loId llo I.|iµ i
|cmmcni.rii (Iacls and Commonls) novspapor in Docombor 2003.
nian compIainls aboul llo Woslorn impacl focusod on ¨foroign inlorfor-
onco.¨ Various ¨oxampIos¨ of invoIvomonl voro givon: officiaI slalo-
monls of Woslorn govornmonls and parIiamonls, docIaralions of
inlornalionaI organizalions and lloir roprosonlalivos, loclnicaI assis-
lanco, and supporl for nongovornmonlaI organizalions.
In }anuary 2004, Irosidonl Kuclma ansvorod a quoslion aboul llo
inilialivo by Viklor Yuslclonko, llo Ioador of llo Our Ukraino bIoc, lo
sol up a spociaI commission of llo IarIiamonlary AssombIy of llo CounciI
of Iuropo (IACI) moniloring commilloo in llo counlry. Tlo proposod
commission vouId lavo monilorod llo probIoms roIalod lo llo consli-
lulionaI and poIilicaI roforms and llo aclions of difforonl poIilicaI forcos.
Kuclma ropIiod:
Wo noodn´l bo soIicilod in favor of domocracy. Wo in Ukraino nood
domocracy moro llan somoono in Woslorn Iuropo vloro nol ov-
orybody knovs llal sucl a counlry oxisls . . . Wo aro gralofuI lo
accopl llo advico of roprosonlalivos of moro oxporioncod domoc-
racios llan ours. Bul vo aIso knov voII vloro advico onds and
inlorforonco inlo our inlornaI affairs bogins. I am nol confidonl llal
aII lloso vlo visil us vill llo mandalos from llo CounciI of Iu-
ropo fooI llal bordorIino . . . Wo aro avaro llal llo CounciI of Iu-
ropo noods Ukraino no Ioss llan vo [noodj llo CounciI of Iuropo.
western influence 127
Tlis makos uIlimalums irroIovanl. You slouIdn´l bolavo Iiko our
opposilion. Our opposilion is jusl somo lon yoars oId, and you aro
mucl oIdor, so, bolavo Iiko aduIls.
In a }anuary 2004 slalomonl, llo Minislry for Ioroign Affairs ¨laiIod¨
llo vorId´s inlorosl in Ukraino´s inlornaI roforms. Bul il slrossod llal
¨biasod slalomonls¨ from IACI coroporlors Hanno Sovorinson and
Ronalla WoIvond, on llo progross of conslilulionaI roform, conslilulod
acls of ¨inlorforonco inlo llo inlornaI affairs of llo counlry, vlicl doos
nol oncourago llo oslabIislmonl of llo slandards of llo CounciI of Iu-
ropo in llo Ukrainian slalo.¨
Tlo dobalo aboul Woslorn supporl for nongovornmonlaI organiza-
lions (NGOs) mallorod bocauso NGOs and indopondonl llink lanks
monilorod llo oIoclion al sovoraI IovoIs. In 2004, al llo inilialivo of com-
munisls supporlod by pro-Kuclma faclions, llo Vorklovna Rada (par-
Iiamonl) inlroducod a lomporary invosligalivo commission lo oslabIisl
llo facls of oxlornaI inlorforonco in llo Ukrainian oIoclion campaign by
NGOs fundod by foroign slalos. Il vas clairod by Communisl Iarly of
Ukraino (CIU) mombor VaIoriy Mislura, knovn for lis slrong anli-
Woslorn alliludos. Tlo commission´s objoclivo vas lo invosligalo llo
impacl of foroign financiaI assislanco lo Ukrainian NGOs as voII as llo
aclivily of Woslorn NGOs in Ukraino. In May 2004, llo clair of llo com-
mission pubIislod a roporl (vlicl vas nol approvod by llo vloIo com-
mission), in vlicl Ukrainian NGOs and foroign donors voro accusod of
Iobbying for foroign (Woslorn) inlorosls. According lo Adam Marlyniuk,
communisl firsl dopuly clair of llo Vorklovna Rada, ¨Ninoly porconl or
moro of llo foundalions oxisling in Ukraino ongago nol in vlal is vrillon
in lloir officiaI documonls bul aro oslabIislod lo infIuonco llo inlornaI
silualion in our counlry.¨ Marlyniuk vanlod sucl foundalions lo Iobby
for Ukrainian inlorosls, ¨Nol as vo soo il loday, vlon lloy Iobby for llo
inlorosls of lloso slalos and lloso sorvicos llal fund llom.¨ Ho nolod llal
llo probIom concornod somo modia as voII. Marlyniuk cIaimod, ¨Somo
funds lavo boon sponl lo supporl [lloj mass modia, vliIo llo Iion´s
slaro las boon usod lo Iobby for foroign inlorosls.¨
As llo oIoclion approaclod, moro and moro pubIicalions and sog-
monls of llo pro-Kuclma modia (sucl as llo novspapors 2000 and
Pcnc!c|ni|, and llo loIovision clannoIs Inlor and 1+1) propoundod llo
viov llal llo opposilion, Iod by Yuslclonko, roprosonlod llo inlorosls
of Woslorn (moslIy Amorican) circIos, vliIo llo Kuclma-Yanukovycl
camp roprosonlod nalionaI and palriolic inlorosls.
128 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
Tlis silualion in llo modia affoclod llo vloIo campaign and Iod lo a
poIarizalion of pubIic opinion vill rogard lo foroign poIicy. Massivo
anli-Woslorn propaganda during llo 2004 prosidonliaI campaign do-
croasod pubIic supporl for Ukraino´s momborslip in llo Norll AlIanlic
Troaly Organizalion (NATO) (vlicl slood al 15 porconl in oarIy 2005, a
docIino of 12 porconl comparod vill oarIy 2004) and llo Iuropoan Union
(vlicl docIinod lo aboul 50 porconl).

Tlo Wosl lad a roaI inlorosl in Ukraino in 2004 bocauso Ukraino is a
bordorIand counlry bolvoon domocralic Iuropo and aullorilarian, cor-
rupl, posl-Soviol Iurasia. IIuraIislic and aulocralic lronds cooxislod in
ils ¨dofoclivo domocracy.¨ In 2004 lloso lronds cIaslod. Il vas a roaI
clanco lo gol llo counlry back on llo domocralic pall aflor sovoraI yoars
of dogradalion. Tlo Ukrainian poIilicaI slago vas occupiod by llo un-
popuIar, slagnaling Kuclma rogimo and a groving roformisl opposi-
lion Iod by Viklor Yuslclonko. As lloir rosourcos voro approximaloIy
oquaI (llo opposilion lad vidor pubIic supporl, bul llo govornmonl
lad adminislralivo rosourcos), oxlornaI faclors couId bo vilaI.
Tlo inlorosls of llo oxlornaI pIayors sprang primariIy from lloir sys-
loms of vaIuos. Tloir main objoclivo vas lo sproad lloir ovn praclicos
lo noiglboring lorrilorios and boyond. Ior boll Woslorn and Iaslorn
oxlornaI pIayors, llo idoa vas ¨bo Iiko us.¨ Tlo difforonco vas llo sub-
slanco of llo proposod ¨us¨÷llo parlicuIar principIos of an aclor.
Truo Woslorn inlorosls voro guidod by common vaIuos, vlicl voro
lo bo omboddod in a slabIo and domocralic Ukraino as an objocl of Wosl-
orn infIuonco. According lo a roporl from llo Razumkov Conlor:
Tlo IU, USA, OSCI, NATO and ollor Woslorn slalos and inlor-
nalionaI organizalions aro inloroslod in Ukraino boing a slabIo,
prodiclabIo counlry vill Iogilimalo aullorilios. OnIy llo froo oIoc-
lion of roprosonlalivo bodios of povor is an indicalor of lloir lruo
supporl by socioly, and, lloroforo, a sign of llo absonco of funda-
monlaI conlradiclions bolvoon llo inlorosls of llo slalo and cilizons,
vlicl aro conslanlIy fraugll vill llo llroal of confIicl. Honco, llo
Wosl is inloroslod in llo inlroduclion of domocralic principIos and
slandards inlo Ukraino´s poIilicaI praclico and lloir slronglloning.
Al llo samo limo, mosl Woslorn aclors proforrod a viclory by
Yuslclonko, vlo vas commillod lo domocralic vaIuos, lo a viclory by
Yanukovycl, vlo vas associalod vill aullorilarianism and corruplion.
western influence 129
Tlis affoclod llo bolavior of many Woslornors invoIvod: poIilicians, jour-
naIisls, and ovon oIoclion obsorvors.
Irom llo firsl proparalions for llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclion, Wosl-
orn aclors and inslilulions sav il as an imporlanl losl caso for poIilicaI
Ukraino´s domoslic agonda concornod llo soparalion
of povors basod on domocralic principIos and a domonslralion of na-
lionaI indopondonco from Russia. Tlo roaI domocralic cloico bolvoon
lvo candidalos vas llo posilivo difforonco bolvoon Ukraino and ollor
slalos of llo CommonvoaIll of Indopondonl Slalos, vloro llo popuIa-
lion oillor doos nol lavo a roaI poIilicaI cloico, and povor is concon-
lralod in ono porson, or llo cloico is bolvoon a domocralic candidalo
and a communisl. To roinforco ils rosislanco lo inlorosl groups, llo po-
IilicaI syslom lad lo bocomo moro lransparonl and aIign ilsoIf moro
slrongIy vill domocralic and formaI procossos. To furllor ils inlorosls
in Ukraino, llo Wosl vas firsl and foromosl concornod vill domocralic
slandards in llo oIoclion campaign and boyond.
Tloroforo, BrussoIs, BorIin, and Waslinglon voro prooccupiod vill
llo oIoclion boing conduclod according lo inlornalionaI domocralic slan-
dards rallor llan vill llo idonlily of llo viclor, prolonding llal boll
candidalos voro commillod lo domocracy and a markol oconomy.
Tlo oIoclion vas porcoivod nol onIy as a Iilmus losl for domocralic ro-
form, bul aIso as a slop lo guaranloo slabiIily and socurily.
Woslorn aclors lad a cIoar idoa of vlal procoduros, if nol vlal oul-
como, llo oIoclion slouId foIIov. MadoIoino AIbrigll,
Goorgo H. W.
Busl, Riclard HoIbrooko, Zbigniov Brzozinski, and WosIoy CIark, aII
of vlom visilod Ukraino in 2004, slrossod llo inlornalionaI roIovanco of
llo Ukrainian oIoclions by liglIiglling llo imporlanco of a froo and fair
oIoclion procoss.
Tlo CounciI of Iuropo oxprossod ils concorns aboul llo inlornaI silu-
alion in Ukraino basod on an informalion mission lo Kyiv, Marcl 16÷19,
Tlo mission´s main rocommondalions poinlod oul roslriclions
on domocracy, Iack of judiciaI indopondonco, vidosproad corruplion,
and vioIalions of modia froodom.
AII lloso slalomonls conlribulod lo llo consoIidalion of Woslorn ac-
livily during llo campaign, llo volo, and llo counling of llo volo.
Majnr Western Actnrs: Cnmmnn Interests, DiIIerent Tactics
Tlo Unilod Slalos and llo Iuropoan Union, inlornalionaI obsorvalion
missions lo llo oIoclion campaign, and supporlors of llo Ukrainian NGO
130 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
soclor voro aclivo in domocracy promolion in Ukraino Iong boforo llo
prosidonliaI oIoclion campaign of aulumn and vinlor 2004. Tloy ap-
poaIod lo Ukrainian aullorilios in llo namo of inlornalionaI domocralic
slandards and bocamo major Woslorn aclors during llo campaign,
lloir laclics difforod significanlIy.
Woslorn invoIvomonl in llo prosidonliaI oIoclion look difforonl forms.
SovoraI mollods usod voro lypicaI of Woslorn parlicipalion in oIoclion
campaigns in counlrios on llo bordor of llo domocralic vorId. Tloy
rangod from poIilicaI docIaralions and financing Ukrainian NGOs lo
inlornalionaI obsorvalion missions and modialion during llo Novombor
poIilicaI crisis (soo ¨InlornalionaI Obsorvalion Missions and Tloir Iffi-
cioncy¨ and ¨Woslorn Supporl lo llo Ukrainian NGO Soclor¨ boIov).
Bosidos govornmonlaI and NGO aclors, Woslorn pubIic roIalion firms aIso
conlribulod lo llo 2004 Ukrainian campaign. Tloir approacl vas vaIuo
noulraI, so anybody vlo paid couId uso sucl sorvicos. SovoraI Woslorn
pubIic roIalions companios vorkod for Yanukovycl´s campaign.
1|c |urcpc.n Unicn
Ono of llo purposos of Iuropoan Union poIicy lovard Ukraino is lo
oslabIisl and slrongllon ils domocracy. Tlo basic biIaloraI agroomonls
bolvoon llo Iuropoan Union and Ukraino incIudo il as a purposo of
lloir dovoIopmonl of roIalions. Ukraino is aIso ono of llo largol slalos of
llo Iuropoan Commission´s Iuropoan Noiglbourlood IoIicy, vlicl
aims al croaling ¨a ring of frionds¨ across Iuropoan Union bordors llal
viII slaro common Iuropoan Union vaIuos.
Tlis purposo dolorminod
Iuropoan Union poIicy lovard llo Ukrainian oIoclion campaign.
Tlougl lloy slarod llo samo goaI, nov and oId Iuropoan Union
mombor slalos closo difforonl approaclos. Tlo roconl voIvol rovoIulions
of llo nov Iuropoan Union mombors loIpod llom lo undorsland
Ukraino´s inlornaI poIilicaI procossos, and lloy mado fuII uso of llal
undorslanding during llo sollIomonl of llo Ukrainian poIilicaI crisis.
Somo nov Iuropoan Union mombor slalos domonslralod llo dooposl
invoIvomonl in llo lisloric clango of llo Ukrainian oIoclion. In lloso
slalos, Ukraino´s movomonl lovard domocracy vas soon as a vay lo
rosisl llo nooaullorilarian infIuonco of Iulin´s Russia ovor Ukraino and
lo sproad slabiIily and prosporily, nol onIy in Ukraino, bul aIso in Con-
lraI and Iaslorn Iuropo.
Tloso slalos, somo of vlicl bordor Ukraino, mado poIilicaI docIara-
lions llal mado cIoar lloir inlorosls in llo Ukrainian oIoclion. Ior
western influence 131
inslanco, vlon llo Scjm, IoIand´s parIiamonl, adoplod a rosoIulion caII-
ing for a froo and lransparonl oIoclion in Ukraino, 330 mombors of par-
Iiamonl volod in favor, vill onIy lvoIvo againsl and lvonly-lvo nol
Tlo IoIisl slalomonl vas mucl moro posilivo llan llo docIa-
ralions of llo U.S. Congross, llo Gorman Bun!csi.g, llo CounciI of Iu-
ropo, or llo Iuropoan Commission. Insload of crilicizing llo Iack of
modia froodom or fairnoss in llo oIoclion campaign, IoIand oxprossod
supporl for Ukraino´s fuluro in llo Iuropoan Union and in NATO. Tlis
docIaralion vas of llo samo lonor as commonls mado by Irosidonl
AIoxandor Kvasniovski in a Soplombor 2 arlicIo in llo |nicrn.iicn.| Hcr-
.|! 1riounc. ¨Tlo IU las faIIon slorl of offoring any inconlivos lo llo
opposilion in Ukraino.¨
Ho indicalod llal llo Iuropoan Union slouId
nol slop ils onIargomonl vill Turkoy, vlicl moanl offoring Ukraino an
opporlunily for accossion. During an officiaI visil lo Kyiv on Novombor
12 bolvoon llo firsl and llo socond rounds of llo oIoclion, WIodzimiorz
Cimoszovicz, IoIand´s foroign minislor and nov clair-in-offico of llo
CounciI of Iuropo, caIIod for a froo and fair volo. His cIoar posilion in-
fIuoncod llo scloduIo of lis visil. Insload of mooling vill Irimo Minis-
lor Yanukovycl and Irosidonl Kuclma, as originaIIy pIannod, llo IoI-
isl minislor mol onIy vill llo spoakor of parIiamonl, llo load of llo
Ukrainian ConlraI IIoclion Commission, and opposilion prosidonliaI
candidalo Yuslclonko.
SIovak primo minislor MikuIas Dzurinda om-
plasizod on sovoraI occasions llal ¨SIovakia vanls lo acl as Ukraino´s
voico al llo Iuropoan labIo.¨
Tlo SIovak govornmonl did nol miss a
clanco lo docIaro llal llo oIoclions slouId bo conduclod in a froo and
fair mannor.
Of courso, noiglboring slalos aIso sonl oIoclion obsorvors.
In addilion lo obsorvors dopIoyod by inlornalionaI organizalions, llo
SIovak govornmonl sonl sixly obsorvors, and IoIand sonl lvonly-four
obsorvors for llo firsl round.
Tlo nov Iuropoan Union mombors´ aclivo invoIvomonl in llo oIoc-
lion campaign, llrougl modialion (by prosidonls AIoxandor
Kvasniovski of IoIand and VaIdas Adamkus of Iilluania), llo sond-
ing of obsorvors, and numorous slalomonls by IoIisl officiaIs and insli-
lulions, oncouragod llo Ukrainian opposilion.
IniliaIIy, llo oId Iuropoan Union mombor slalos voro caulious and
praclicod lloir lradilionaI Russia-firsl poIicy. In aulumn 2004, il appoarod
difficuIl for llo Iuropoan Union lo formuIalo a unifiod poIicy backod
by boll nov and oId mombor slalos. Ono diIomma vas llo confIicl bo-
lvoon a dosiro lo lavo a domocralic noiglbor and lloir onorgy dopon-
donco on Russia. IinaIIy, prossuro from llo Unilod Slalos and llo nov
132 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
Iuropoan Union mombor slalos, combinod vill concorn ovor llo dan-
gor of a bIoody Ukrainian poIilicaI crisis aflor llo socond volo of No-
vombor 21, lippod llo Iuropoan Union´s posilion in favor of aclivo in-
voIvomonl lo bullross domocracy in Ukraino.
Dospilo llo difforing posilions of llo oId and nov mombor slalos, llo
Iuropoan Union sonl a slrong and consislonl mossago during llo cuI-
minalion of llo Ukrainian campaign and llo Orango RovoIulion. Roacl-
ing lo llo firsl-round oIoclion, Iuropoan Union Ioadors rogrollod llal il
did nol mool a numbor of roquiromonls lo bo considorod domocralic
and nolod llal llo condilions voro nol fair for aII candidalos during llo
prooIoclion poriod.
Tlo Irosidoncy of llo Iuropoan Union oxprossod
sorious doubl llal llo officiaI rosuIls of llo oIoclion rofIoclod llo viII of
llo Ukrainian poopIo.
In conlrasl lo Irosidonl Iulin, Iuropoan Union
Ioadors domandod roconsidoralion of llo oIoclion oulcomo, llus rojocl-
ing Yanukovycl as llo Iogilimalo prosidonl of Ukraino.
SimiIarIy, Iuropoan docision makors did nol accopl llo oulcomo of
llo socond lour bocauso of llo Iack of domocralic slandards, and lloy
supporlod a poacofuI soIulion of llo crisis on a IogaI basis. Iuropoan
Union Higl Roprosonlalivo for Ioroign and Socurily IoIicy }avior SoIana,
IoIisl prosidonl Kvasniovski and Iilluanian prosidonl Adamkus bo-
camo imporlanl in llo nogolialions bolvoon confIicling parlios.
Tlo Iuropoan Union usod carrols rallor llan slicks in ils slralogy for
onlancing domocracy in Ukraino: fuluro Iuropoan Union poIicy lovard
llo slalo dopondod on Ukraino´s adloronco lo domocralic principIos
during llo oIoclion campaign. Tlo dangor of a bIoody poIilicaI crisis
aflor llo socond volo forcod llo Iuropoan Union lo clango lo a slick
approacl vill poIilicaI moans: ¨Tlo Novombor 21 run-off´s proIiminary
rolurns musl bo llorouglIy clockod. If Ukrainian aullorilios faiI lo do
so llis viII lavo vory sorious consoquoncos for roIalions bolvoon llo
IU and Ukraino, in parlicuIar, in impIomonling llo Iuropoan Noigl-
borlood IoIicy.¨
1|c Uniic! Si.ics
Tlo posilion of llo Unilod Slalos vas slraigllor from llo boginning. Il
lad Iong soon Ukraino al llo forofronl of domocracy in llo posl-Soviol
spaco. On Oclobor 7, 2004, U.S. ambassador lo Ukraino }oln I. Horbsl
roiloralod llo roadinoss of llo U.S. govornmonl lo cooporalo vill llo
fuluro prosidonl, bo lo Yanukovycl or Yuslclonko, and said llal ¨vlal
mallors is llo oIoclion procoss´s lonosly and lransparoncy.¨
western influence 133
Tlo Unilod Slalos´ goaI coincidod vill llal of llo Iuropoan Union:
an oIoclion campaign undor domocralic principIos and llo furllor domo-
cralic dovoIopmonl of Ukraino. Al llo samo limo, llo Unilod Slalos pro-
forrod llo slick: nonadloronco lo domocralic principIos vouId Ioad lo
nogalivo poIilicaI and oconomic consoquoncos for llo slalo. In addilion
lo numorous slalomonls by acling and formor U.S. Ioadors lo oncourago
Ukrainian adloronco lo domocracy,
llo Unilod Slalos closo lo oxorl
dirocl individuaI infIuonco on Ukrainian aullorilios.
In 2004, sovoraI famous U.S. poIilicaI and sociaI Ioadors (MadoIoino
AIbrigll, Zbigniov Brzozinski, Goorgo H. W. Busl, Riclard HoIbrooko,
Goorgo Soros, WosIoy CIark, Riclard Armilago, and ollors) visilod
Ukraino vill onIy ono mission: lo provonl Kuclma and lis onlourago
from adopling an aullorilarian, iIIogilimalo soIulion lo llo probabIo
poIilicaI crisis.
In addilion lo pulling poIilicaI prossuro on Ukrainian aullorilios, llo
Unilod Slalos usod llo llroal of sanclions. On Soplombor 15, Congross-
man Dana Rolrabaclor submillod a biII onlilIod ¨Ukraino Domocracy
and llo IIoclion Acl of 2004.¨ Tlo biII caIIod on Irosidonl Kuclma and
Irimo Minislor Yanukovycl lo ¨slop ovorl, fIagranl and inadmissibIo
vioIalions of Ukraino´s luman riglls commilmonls lo llo OSCI, and
guaranloo rospocl for fundamonlaI domocralic Iiborlios.¨ Il proposod
sanclions slouId vioIalions of llo slandards Iislod in llo biII conlinuo.
Tloso incIudod barring lop officiaIs of llo Ukrainian govornmonl and
lloir famiIy mombors from onloring U.S. lorrilory, confiscaling lloir
proporly in llo Unilod Slalos, froozing lloir bank accounls, soizing llo
funds in lloso accounls, and banning Ioans lo llom.
Unilod Slalos dopuly slalo doparlmonl spokosporson Adam IroIi said
on Novombor 1 llal llo socond round of llo oIoclion on Novombor 21
prosonlod ¨an opporlunily for Ukraino lo affirm ils commilmonls lo
domocralic principIos, and vo urgo llo Ukrainian aullorilios lo aIIov
llo poopIo of Ukraino lo clooso frooIy.¨
In a Iollor lo Irosidonl Kuclma,
Irosidonl Goorgo W. Busl nolod llal ¨a larnislod oIoclion viII Ioad us
lo roviov our roIalions vill Ukraino.¨
Tlo Iollor vas givon lo Kuclma
during llo fivo-day mission of Sonalor Riclard G. Iugar, clair of llo
U.S. Sonalo Ioroign RoIalions Commilloo, as a porsonaI roprosonlalivo
of Irosidonl Busl, lo obsorvo llo socond round of llo Ukrainian prosi-
donliaI oIoclion.
On Novombor 22, immodialoIy aflor llo faIsifiod volo, Iugar issuod
llo firsl slrong Woslorn mossago on Ukraino (al aboul 3 p.m.). Ho slalod
llal Kuclma loId porsonaI rosponsibiIily for llo poacofuI and IavfuI
134 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
sollIomonl of llo poIilicaI crisis aflor llo socond round of voling.
Tlo slalomonl by Socrolary of Slalo CoIin IovoII on Novombor 24 provod
llal llo Unilod Slalos vas sorious aboul nonrocognilion of llo socond
volo. IovoII slalod llal llo Unilod Slalos ¨cannol accopl llo Ukraino
oIoclion rosuIl as Iogilimalo¨ and caIIod for an invosligalion. Ho varnod
llal if lloro voro no invosligalion, lloro couId bo impIicalions for U.S.
roIalions vill Ukraino.
Comparing llo impacl of llo Iuropoan Union vorsus llal of llo
Unilod Slalos, vo concIudo llal llo Unilod Slalos vas cIoarIy llo moro
aclivo Woslorn conlribulor lo inlornalionaI offorls in Ukraino during
llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclion. Boll officiaI and nongovornmonlaI U.S.
roprosonlalivos domonslralod llo viII lo lako llo slrongor aclion lo pro-
vonl fraud and onsuro a fair oIoclion rosuIl. Tlo Unilod Slalos aIso con-
lribulod moro financiaI and loclnicaI supporl.
Tlo Iuropoan Union vas dividod inlo lvo bIocs: a Woslorn Iuropoan
bIoc vill a moro modoralo approacl, vlicl bocamo lruIy aclivo onIy
during voling and llo Orango RovoIulion, and a ConlraI Iuropoan bIoc
(llo four Visograd slalos and llo BaIlic slalos), vlicl vas proaclivo from
llo vory boginning, slrongIy commillod lo loIping Ukraino lo rolurn lo
llo domocralic pall. ConlraI Iuropoans convincod llo oId mombor slalos
lo adopl a firm common posilion during llo Orango RovoIulion. As a
rosuIl, llo Wosl as a vloIo look consislonl and offoclivo aclion lo provonl
llo uso of forco in Ukraino and lo onsuro a poacofuI, uIlimaloIy domo-
cralic soIulion lo llo Novombor÷Docombor 2004 poIilicaI crisis.
Tlo slrong common, consoIidalod mossago llal llo Wosl doIivorod
lo Ukraino (and aIso lo Russia) vas imporlanl for Ukraino´s 2004 domo-
cralic succoss. SliII, llal succoss vouId nol lavo boon possibIo llrougl
Woslorn offorls aIono: llo aclivo parl of Ukrainian socioly pIayod a cru-
ciaI roIo in llo domocralic oxpIosion of llo Orango RovoIulion.
Western 5uppnrt tn the Ukrainian NGO 5ectnr
Woslorn donors focusod lloir aclivilios on llo oIoclion procoss and of-
lon found NGOs lo impIomonl lloir idoas. Tloir aclivilios incIudod sup-
porling indopondonl pubIic opinion poIIs, carrying oul indopondonl oxil
poIIs, producing loIovision spols, oncouraging poopIo lo volo, pubIisl-
ing and dislribuling Iiloraluro oxpIaining poopIo´s riglls, and supporl-
ing luman riglls organizalions in moniloring vioIalions and prosocul-
ing vioIalors. By doing llis, Ukrainian civiI socioly proloslod againsl llo
obvious oIoclion fraud of llo socond round of oIoclions and bocamo a
docisivo parl of llo Orango RovoIulion.
western influence 135
InlornalionaI donors providod spociaI supporl for NGOs invoIvod in
llo oIoclion-moniloring procoss. In parlicuIar, a consorlium of Woslorn
donors suppIiod funds for an oIoclion oxil poII. Tlo nalionaI oxil poII,
Iod by llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion, provod lo bo a succoss
dospilo lonsions llal appoarod among poIIing organizalions villin llo
projocl. SpociaI oIoclion-orionlod donor programs voro offorod by llo
InlornalionaI Ronaissanco Ioundalion (IRI, vlicl is llo Soros Iounda-
lion in Ukraino) and llo NalionaI Indovmonl for Domocracy (a U.S.
donor organizalion).
In parlicuIar, boginning in llo faII of 2003, llo
IRI providod aImosl $1.3 miIIion lo Ukrainian NGOs lo carry oul oIoc-
lion-roIalod projocls.
Tlo Iuropoan Commission´s NalionaI Indicalivo Irogram 2004÷2006
sol asido somo lon miIIion ouros oul of a lolaI of 212 miIIion ouros lo
supporl civiI socioly, llo modia, and domocracy.
Iurllor, llo Iuro-
poan Commission aIIocalod ono miIIion ouros lo llo ConlraI IIoclion
Commilloo of Ukraino. Il aIso supporlod Ukraino´s civic Iifo and ils abiI-
ily lo conducl a froo and fair oIoclion llrougl a varioly of loclnicaI as-
sislanco projocls.
Tlo U.S. Agoncy for InlornalionaI DovoIopmonl
(USAID) gavo $1.475 miIIion for oIoclion-roIalod aclivilios.
In 2004, USAID oxlondod granls lo DovoIopmonl Associalos, Inc., and
Iroodom Houso lo assisl in adminisloring and moniloring llo oIoclion
procoss. Il inilialod a nov program, ¨Moniloring of IIoclions in Ukraino,¨
vlicl vas inlondod lo loIp llo pubIic onsuro moro lransparonl, com-
polilivo, and fair oIoclions. MonllIy roundlabIos on oIoclion probIoms
brougll pubIic figuros and govornmonl officiaIs logollor. IIoclion com-
mission mombors and obsorvors rocoivod lraining.
Tlis lraining vas fuIIy compIianl vill USAID obIigalions and biIal-
oraI documonls. In parlicuIar, in 2004, USAID signod a momorandum of
undorslanding vill llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission on llo main diroc-
lions and goaIs of cooporalion in oIoclions. Iursuanl lo llis documonl,
llo main objoclivos of llo program voro ¨lo incroaso llo IovoI of profos-
sionaIism, compolonco, and indopondonco of oIoclion commission mom-
bors, llo offoclivonoss of Ukrainian civic organizalions in moniloring llo
oIocloraI procoss, and cilizons´ avaronoss of lloir riglls and rosponsibiIi-
lios as oIoclion parlicipanls.¨
Accusalions llal sucl aclivily inlorforos in
domoslic affairs lloroforo do nol corrospond lo llo lruo slalo of affairs.
Western PubIic ReIatinns Assistance tn Yanuknvych's Camp
Tlo amounl of Woslorn pubIic roIalions assislanco usod by llo pro-
govornmonl camp during llo campaign romains a myslory. Conlracls
and roIalions in llis aroa romain moslIy nonlransparonl.
136 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
During a visil lo llo Unilod Slalos in Oclobor 2004, a Yanukovycl
advisor, Iduard Irulnik, llo man rosponsibIo for llo primo minislor´s
conlacls vill llo Wosl, arrangod a pross conforonco, ¨Tlo Iosilion of
Ukraino bolvoon Iasl and Wosl.¨ Al llal conforonco Irulnik spoko lo-
gollor vill AIoksoi KisoIov, a U.S. cilizon born in Odosa and affiIialod
vill llo company Norll AlIanlic Socurilios. According lo U|r.ins|.
pr.t!., KisoIov admillod lis invoIvomonl in brokoring a conlracl bo-
lvoon Yanukovycl and Waslinglon, D.C.-basod DCS Co. bul doniod
llal lis cIionl paid $750,000 for pubIic roIalions sorvicos. Irulnik and
KisoIov lriod lo convinco an audionco llal Yanukovycl vas a nov Ioador
for Ukraino, ono vlo lad provod llal lis officionl inlornaI poIicy vouId
Ioad Ukraino lo a prosporily basod on slabiIily.
KisoIov vas a koy porson in llo provision of Amorican pubIic roIa-
lions sorvicos for Yanukovycl. Bocauso of lis offorls sovoraI Amorican
firms voro invoIvod in llo promolion of llo Ukrainian primo minislor
in llo Unilod Slalos. Tlo U.S. juslico doparlmonl providod U|r.ins|.
pr.t!. vill a Iisl of organizalions invoIvod in cooporalion vill
Yanukovycl´s govornmonl in 2003÷2004 and rogislorod in accordanco
vill llo U.S. Ioroign Agonls Rogislralion Acl of 1938: VonabIo, III,
rogislralion no. 5435, Iolomac Communicalions Slralogios, Inc., rogis-
lralion no. 5588, Croalivo Rosponso Concopls (no rogislralion fiIo), DB
Communicalions, IIC, rogislralion no. 5634, }WI, IIC, rogislralion
no. 4990, and AIoksoi KisoIov, rogislralion no. 5572.
Woslorn sourcos aIso roporlod conlacls bolvoon formor Yanukovycl
cliof of slaff Sorliy Tylipko and poIilicaI consuIlanl DougIas Scloon.
According lo Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., llo Groonborg, CarviIIo, and Slrum agoncy
conducling llo campaign of U.S. prosidonliaI candidalo }oln Korry aIso
consuIlod for Yanukovycl.
Tlo pubIic roIalions slralogy offorod by KisoIov vas loo simiIar lo
lloso oflon usod by discrodilod llird vorId poIilicians lo improvo lloir
imago in llo Wosl. UIlimaloIy, lloso offorls faiIod lo roprosonl
Yanukovycl as a roprosonlalivo of a ¨Nov Ukraino¨ llal vouId boasl
of rapid oconomic grovll, slabiIily, and good govornanco.
InternatinnaI Observatinn Missinns and Their EIIicacy
IIoclion obsorvors voro llo mosl significanl producl of joinl offorls by
inlornalionaI inslilulions and Woslorn govornmonls. GonoraIIy spoak-
ing, oIoclion obsorvalion is ono of llo mosl povorfuI inslrumonls of
Woslorn infIuonco. Tlo OSCI mission lo Ukraino vas ono of llo Iargosl
western influence 137
lo dalo. Ukraino loslod a rocord numbor of inlornalionaI obsorvors for
llo Docombor 26 rorun. Dospilo llo Clrislmas loIidays, llo lolaI num-
bor of foroign obsorvors, moro llan llirloon llousand, vas llo liglosl
in llo lislory of inlornalionaI oIoclion obsorvalion.
According lo Kompo and SoIononko, nalionaI and inlornalionaI oIoc-
lion obsorvalion is an incroasingIy offoclivo looI vlonovor domocracy
is undor prossuro, as in BoIarus or in Sorbia undor Irosidonl SIobodan
MiIosovic. In Ukraino, oIoclion obsorvors poinlod oul lov unfair llo
oIoclions lad boon. Tlo OSCI/ODIHR, logollor vill llo parIiamon-
lary assombIios of llo OSCI, llo CounciI of Iuropo, NATO, and llo
Iuropoan IarIiamonl, conduclod boll slorl- and Iong-lorm moniloring
of llo Ukrainian oIoclions (llrougl llo InlornalionaI IIoclion Obsorva-
lion Mission [IIOMj). In lorms of llo numbor of parlicipanls (428 for
llo firsl round, 650 for llo socond round, and 1,367 for llo rovolo), llis
vas ono of llo Iargosl oIoclion obsorvalion missions lo dalo.
Ior in-
slanco, 511 OSCI obsorvors voro dopIoyod lo llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoc-
lions in Goorgia, and 258 obsorvod llo Sorbian prosidonliaI oIoclions in
TabIe 7.1. Fnreign Observers at the 2004 Ukrainian PresidentiaI

OSC| PA, |P¹
O||ici.| Ooscrtcrs
|rcm Icrcign
O||ici.| Ooscrtcrs
|rcm |nicrn.iicn.|
Org.niz.iicns 1ci.|
Iirsl round
(Oclobor 31,
2004) 650 214 1,591 2,455
Rovolo of llo
socond round
26, 2004) 1,367 3,281 8,996 13,644
Scurccs: HoImul Kurll and Iris Kompo, ods., Prcsi!cnii.| ||cciicns .n! Or.ngc
Rctc|uiicn. |mp|ic.iicns |cr U|r.inc´s 1r.nsiiicn (Kyiv: Tlo Iriodricl Iborl Ioundalion,
2005), 116. Dala basod on OSCI/ODIHR (vvv.osco.org/odilr/documonls.llmI) and
ConlraI IIoclion Commission of Ukraino (vvv.cvk.gov.ua) vobsilos.
Ncic. II: Iuropoan IarIiamonl, NATO IA: Norll AlIanlic Troaly Organizalion
IarIiamonlary AssombIy, OSCI/ODIHR: Organizalion for Socurily and Cooporalion in
Iuropo/ Offico for Domocralic Inslilulions and Human Riglls, OSCI IA: Organizalion
for Socurily and Cooporalion in Iuropo IarIiamonlary AssombIy, IACI: IarIiamonlary
AssombIy of llo CounciI of Iuropo.
138 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
In addilion lo llo obsorvors from inlornalionaI organizalions, a
lugo numbor of obsorvors voro aIso sonl lo Ukraino by nalionaI gov-
ornmonls and nongovornmonlaI organizalions.
According lo llo proIiminary slalomonl of llo InlornalionaI IIoclion
Obsorvalion Mission, pubIislod on Novombor 1, 2004, ¨Tlo 31 Oclobor
prosidonliaI oIoclion in Ukraino did nol mool a considorabIo numbor of
OSCI, CounciI of Iuropo and ollor Iuropoan slandards for domocralic
oIoclions. Tlis oIoclion procoss conslilulos a slop backvard from llo 2002
oIoclions.¨ Tlo oIoclion procoss vas claraclorizod by significanl slorl-
comings (aIllougl lloro voro somo posilivo aspocls vorlly of nolo).
Tlo mosl imporlanl slorlcomings voro:
- Tlo Iack of soparalion bolvoon rosourcos ovnod or managod by
incumbonl poIilicaI forcos and llo slalo rosourcos of Yanukovycl´s
- Tlo ovorvloIming bias in favor of Yanukovycl in llo slalo modia
- Inlorforonco by llo slalo adminislralion
- Tlo uso of modia guidoIinos from llo govornmonl lo lomogonizo
modia poIicy
- Tlo dissominalion of infIammalory campaign maloriaI of anony-
mous or uncIoar origin
- Inaccuralo volor Iisls and confusion in llo formalion of poIIing sla-
lion commissions, vlicl impodod llo abiIily of volors lo clock lloir
- A Iargo numbor of orrors and omissions in llo volor Iisls, vlicl
joopardizod llo principIo of univorsaIily of llo volo
- Tlo inofficioncy of llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission lo onsuro llo
uniform appIicalion of llo Iav
Tlo domocralic slorlcomings and Iack of inlornalionaI slandards for
froo and fair oIoclions incroasod llo Wosl´s allonlion boforo llo socond
oIoclion round. Wlon ovidonco suggoslod llal Yanukovycl lad vio-
Ialod domocralic slandards lo vin llo cIosoIy conloslod oIoclion, IIOM
issuod a slalomonl loaviIy crilicizing Ukraino for nol mooling inlorna-
lionaI slandards for domocralic oIoclions.
According lo llo proIimi-
nary slalomonl, slalo aullorilios and llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission
dispIayod a Iack of viII in conducling a gonuinoIy domocralic oIoclion.
Tlal slalomonl drov counlIoss officiaI roaclions from Waslinglon, Brus-
soIs, BorIin, Warsav, and ollor Iuropoan capilaIs and mado loadIinos
vorIdvido. Ialor, llo IIOM assossmonl of llo socond round, in addilion
western influence 139
lo llo rosuIls of llo oxil poIIs conduclod by various Ukrainian inslilu-
lions, providod llo mosl imporlanl supporl for llo opposilion domand
lo nuIIify llo rosuIl and lo conducl a froo and fair volo.
During llo rorun of llo socond round, llo OSCI incroasod llo num-
bor of inlornalionaI obsorvors lo guaranloo a domocralic procoss. Ac-
cording lo llo slalomonl of llo IIOM on llo Docombor 26 rorun, ¨Tlo
procoss brougll Ukraino subslanliaIIy cIosor lo mooling OSCI oIoclion
commilmonls and CounciI of Iuropo and ollor Iuropoan slandards.¨
Domocralic progross vas roporlod rogarding llo baIancod modia cov-
orago and oquaI campaign condilions in gonoraI.
As llo Razumkov
Conlor´s roporl concIudod, llo ¨sociaI domand for moniloring of llo oIoc-
lion campaign by foroign obsorvors may bo loslimony nol so mucl lo llo
undorslanding of llo roIo and possibiIilios of Woslorn slrucluros as llo
oxlromo mislrusl of Ukraino´s socioly in llo Ukrainian aullorilios.¨
InlornalionaI obsorvalion missions in Ukraino in 2004, lakon logollor,
voro llo Iargosl in oIoclion-moniloring lislory. Tloy conlribulod groalIy
lo onsuring froo and fair oIoclions, ospociaIIy during llo rorun on Do-
combor 26. Yol Ukrainian succoss provod onIy llal inlornalionaI obsor-
valion missions may bo succossfuI if nalionaI obsorvors profossionaIIy
assisl foroignors. Tlo Orango RovoIulion provod llal inlornalionaI ob-
sorvalion vorks as an officionl inslrumonl onIy in combinalion vill
poIilicaI and judiciaI procoduros and domoslic civiI aclivily.
Crisis Mediatinn during the Orange RevnIutinn
Tlo frauduIonl socond volo on Novombor 21, vlicl vas foIIovod by
mass raIIios in Kyiv and ollor Ukrainian cilios, croalod llo nood for in-
lornalionaI modialion. Iroloslors bIockod govornmonl buiIdings in Kyiv,
and llo llroal of bIoody cIaslos vill poIico bocamo roaI. Tlo Ioadors of
sovoraI slalos and inlornalionaI organizalions docidod lo como lo Kyiv
lo Iauncl nogolialions undor an inlornalionaI umbroIIa.
IoIisl prosidonl AIoxandor Kvasniovski, Iilluanian prosidonl
VaIdas Adamkus, OSCI socrolary gonoraI }an Kubis, Iuropoan Union
Higl Roprosonlalivo for llo Common Ioroign and Socurily IoIicy }avior
SoIana, and Spoakor of llo Russian Slalo Duma Boris GryzIov arrivod in
Kyiv on Novombor 26 lo rosoIvo llo poIilicaI crisis. Aflor a lvo-lour
discussion al llo Mariinskyi IaIaco in Kyiv, llo parlicipanls, incIuding
Kuclma, Yuslclonko, Yanukovycl, and llo spoakor of Ukraino´s su-
promo counciI, VoIodymyr Iylvyn, roaclod an agroomonl and issuod a
slalomonl on llo rosoIulion of llo poIilicaI crisis in Ukraino.
140 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
Tlo slalomonl said llal boll sidos opposod llo uso of forco, vlicl
couId rosuIl in oscaIalion and bIoodslod. Tlo lvo major sidos
(Yuslclonko and Yanukovycl) agrood lo sol up vorking groups for
nogolialions. Tlo lvo sidos llankod llo roprosonlalivos of llo Iuropoan
Union, llo OSCI, llo prosidonls of IoIand and Iilluania, and llo
spoakor of llo Duma for lloir roadinoss lo conlinuo faciIilaling llo no-
golialions aimod al rosoIving llo crisis.
Commonling on llo rosuIls of lloso joinl offorls, SoIana said a day
Ialor: ¨Tlo mosl imporlanl poinl is llal boll parlios lo llo confIicl lavo
pIodgod lo rofrain from rosorling lo forco undor any circumslancos. Tloy
lavo aIso docidod lo immodialoIy form vorking groups lo roguIalo llo
confIicl.¨ SoIana said llo onIy obIigalion of llo proloslors vas lo rofrain
from bIocking adminislralivo buiIdings.
Tlo opposilion did nol fuIfiII
llal obIigalion.
Tlo modialod laIks bolvoon Yuslclonko and Yanukovycl provonlod
llo oscaIalion of losliIily and oponod a pall lovard a poIilicaI soIulion
basod on llo Docombor 3 docision by llo Ukrainian supromo counciI lo
conducl a rorun of llo socond round of oIoclions on Docombor 26. Mo-
dialion pIayod an imporlanl roIo in provonling llo uso of forco during
llo Orango RovoIulion. Il vas an officionl looI for aclioving a poacofuI
soIulion in Ukraino during llo mosl cruciaI days of llo rovoIulion, vlon
radicaIs in llo govornmonl camp lriod lo convinco Kuclma lo uso llo
poIico and llo army againsl proloslors in llo slrool. Tlo inlornalionaI
modialion mission did nol yioId a finaI poIilicaI docision, bul il did pro-
vido a basis for ono. Il roassurod Ukrainian socioly llal llo domocralic
vorId vas carofuIIy obsorving llo poIilicaI drama in Ukraino.

Tlo ¨vaIuos-drivon¨ approacl roprosonlod by mosl of llo Woslorn ac-
lors during llo 2004 prosidonliaI campaign in Ukraino did nol onliroIy
oxcIudo llo sympallios and proforoncos of llo Wosl. On llo ono land,
llo Wosl vas roIuclanl lo offor Ukraino llo prospocl of inlogralion inlo
llo Iuro-AlIanlic slrucluros. WliIo domanding lransilion lovard a
markol oconomy and domocracy, llo Wosl focusod on supporling a froo
and fair oIoclion. Irom llo Woslorn porspoclivo, il vas moro imporlanl
lo assoss llo oIoclion procoss llan lo docido vlo vouId bo llo fuluro
prosidonl of Ukraino. ConsoquonlIy, Woslorn docision makors did nol
oponIy supporl oillor candidalo.
western influence 141
On llo ollor land, a fair ovaIualion of Woslorn molivos and aclions
provod llal ¨il is obvious llal Iuropo and Amorica vouId profor Viklor
Yuslclonko lo vin, rallor llan Viklor Yanukovycl,¨ as rolirod U.S.
mombor of Congross }oln ConIan rocognizod boforo llo oIoclions.
proforonco pIayod a roIo in Woslorn aclions.
Among llo Woslorn aclors llo Unilod Slalos vas llo mosl aclivo con-
lribulor lo inlornalionaI offorls in Ukraino in lorms of consisloncy, aIIo-
calod assislanco, and roadinoss lo impIomonl radicaI moasuros if do-
mocracy lad faiIod. Tlo Iuropoan Union lad lvo difforonl facos: a
Woslorn Iuropoan bIoc, vill a moro modoralo approacl, vlicl bocamo
lruIy aclivo onIy during llo oIoclion and llo Orango RovoIulion, and a
ConlraI Iuropoan bIoc, vlicl vas proaclivo from llo vory boginning,
slrongIy commillod lo loIping Ukraino lo rolurn lo domocracy.
Tlo ConlraI Iuropoans brougll Iuropo lo a common posilion during
llo Orango RovoIulion. Tloy onabIod llo consislonl, offoclivo aclion of
llo Wosl as a vloIo lo provonl llo uso of forco in Ukraino and lo onsuro
an uIlimaloIy domocralic soIulion lo llo Novombor÷Docombor 2004 po-
IilicaI crisis.
To a groal oxlonl, llo common Woslorn slralogy camo aboul bocauso
llo Iuropoan Union ovorcamo ils lypicaI Russia-firsl poIicy approacl
lovard Ukraino and foIIovod a unilod, moro aggrossivo slralogy of
dofonding Ukrainian froodom againsl Russia. Tlis lurnaboul bocamo
possibIo as a rosuIl of llo offorls of ils nov mombor slalos, vlicl sav
lloir aclivo roIo as modialors of llo Ukrainian poIilicaI crisis as an
oxcoIIonl vay lo slaro lloir oxporionco on luman riglls and dignily
vill Ukraino, and lo posilion llomsoIvos as llo main inlornaI Iuro-
poan Union forcos slaping Iaslorn poIicy. Tlo main Woslorn aclors,
pursuing llo samo goaI vill difforonl inslrumonls, found a common
slralogy llal coincidod vill inlornaI domands and llo courago of
Tlo 2004 Ukrainian crisis and llo Orango RovoIulion conlribulod
subslanliaIIy lo llo unily of llo Wosl. Tlo slrong common, consoIidalod
mossago, doIivorod from llo Wosl lo Ukraino (and, imporlanlIy, lo Rus-
sia) domonslralod roaI Iuro-AlIanlic poIilicaI inlogrily, vlicl is incroas-
ingIy raro bocauso of llo froquonl dispulos bolvoon llo Iuropoan Union
and llo Unilod Slalos, as voII as bolvoon oId and nov Iuropo. Bul suc-
coss vouId nol lavo boon possibIo llrougl Woslorn offorls aIono. Il vas
llo aclivo parl of Ukrainian socioly llal mado Ukraino llo vorId´s big-
gosl domocralic succoss slory in 2004.
142 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko

1. ¨Inlorv´iu Tarasa ClorniIova¨ [Inlorviov vill Taras ClorniIovj, Kcrrcspcn!cni, }uIy
25, 2005, avaiIabIo al vvv.korrospondonl.nol/main/126716.
2. I.|iµ i |cmmcni.rii [Iacls and Commonlsj, Novombor 29, 2003.
3. Inlorfax-Ukraino, }anuary 22, 2004.
4. Razumkov Conlor, N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc, no. 5/2004, Kyiv, 10.
5. Ibid.
6. Dala from llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion, Iobruary 2005, and llo Razumkov
Conlor, }anuary÷Marcl 2005.
7. N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc, 21.
8. Andors AsIund. ¨Iofl Bolind: Ukraino´s Uncorlain Transformalion,¨ 1|c N.iicn.| |n-
icrcsi, 73 (faII 2003), 107 16.
9. HoImul Kurll and Iris Kompo, ods., Prcsi!cnii.| ||cciicns .n! ji|c} Or.ngc Rctc|u-
iicn. |mp|ic.iicns |cr U|r.inc´s 1r.nsiiicn (Kyiv: Iriodricl Iborl Ioundalion, 2005),
10. MadoIoino AIbrigll, ¨Hov lo HoIp Ukraino Volo,¨ Ncu Ycr| 1imcs, Marcl 8, 2004,
11. Kurll and Kompo, Prcsi!cnii.| ||cciicns, 113.
12. CounciI of Iuropo, ¨CompIianco vill Commilmonls and ObIigalions: Tlo Silualion
in Ukraino,¨ SG/Inf(2004)12, ApriI 8, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.coo.inl/l/o/sg/Socro-
13. Ior moro dolaiIs, soo N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc, 21.
14. Bonila Iorroro-WaIdnor, ¨Tlo Iuropoan Noiglbourlood IoIicy,¨ avaiIabIo al lllp://
15. ¨Soym IoIsllclo zakIinayv ukrainsky vIady provosli lclosni vibori¨ [Tlo IoIisl Sojm
Urgos llo Ukrainian Govornmonl lo Carry oul Honosl IIoclionsj, Iro Iuropo, Oclo-
bor 22, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.proouropa.info/novs/`id=843&IHISISSID=
16. }udy Dompsoy, ¨IoIand´s Vision of llo Iuropoan Union,¨ |nicrn.iicn.| Hcr.|! 1ri-
ounc, Soplombor 2, 2004.
17. ¨IoIand Urgos Ukraino lo HoId Iair IrosidonliaI Volo,¨ RI|/RI jR.!ic Ircc |urcpc/
R.!ic Iiocriµ} Ncus|inc, 8 (215, parl 2) (Novombor 15, 2004) , avaiIabIo al vvv.rforI.org/
18. Dzurinda said llis during a joinl pross conforonco vill lis Ukrainian counlorparl
Viklor Yanukovycl, on }uno 21, 2004, in Kyiv. In Iuropoan Union Businoss, avaiIabIo
al vvv.oubusinoss.com/SIovakia/040621174553.Ig4nkpoc.
19. DanioI Iorgacs, ¨SIovonsko Vyvá_a domokraciu na Ukrajin¨ [SIovakia CaIIs for Do-
mocracy in Ukrainoj, N.rc!n. corc!., Oclobor 20, 2004, 2, ¨Irozidonlskó voI´by na
Ukrajino budo monilorova_ 108 sIovonskycl pozorovaloI´ov¨ [108 SIovak Obsorvors
WiII Monilor Ukrainian IrosidonliaI IIoclionsj, Iross Agoncy of llo SIovak RopubIic,
Oclobor 19, 2004.
20. OfficiaI vobsilo of llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission of Ukraino, avaiIabIo al
21. ¨DocIaralion by llo Irosidoncy of llo Iuropoan Union on llo IrosidonliaI IIoclions
of Oclobor 31, 2004, in Ukraino,¨ Novombor 1, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.ou2004.nI/
22. ¨DocIaralion by llo Irosidoncy of llo Iuropoan Union on Ukraino,¨ Novombor 22,
2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.ou2004.nI/dofauIl.asp`CMS_ITIM=
23. Among many slalomonls soo: ¨Bundosaußonminislor Iisclor bosorgl ubor graviorondo
MängoI boi zvoilor Rundo dor IräsidonlsclaflsvalIon in dor Ukraino¨ [IodoraI Ioroign
western influence 143
Minislor Iisclor Is Concornod ovor Dislurbing Slorlcomings in llo Socond Round of
llo IrosidonliaI IIoclions in Ukrainoj, IrossomilloiIungon, Novombor 23, 2004, and
¨IovoII Rojocls Ukraino IIoclion, Tlroalons Aclion,¨ Roulors, Novombor 24, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv.roulors.com/novsArlicIo.jllmI`lypo=vorIdNovs&sloryID=
24. ¨Iurocommission Irosidonl }osó ManuoI Barroso Urgos Tlorougl Clock inlo No-
vombor 21 Run-off Rolurns,¨ Ukrinform, Novombor 24, 2004, avaiIabIo al
25. Ior facluaI informalion on llo parlicipalion of inlornalionaI aclors, soo llo vobsilo of
llo InformalionaI Conlor of llo Working Group for Supporling OfficiaI Obsorvors
from Ioroign Slalos and InlornalionaI Organizalions. Ukrinform, avaiIabIo al
26. Ibid.
27. ¨Amorica´s IinaI Warning,¨ Zcr|.|c iµz|ni., 37 (512) (Soplombor 18÷24, 2004) , avaiI-
abIo al vvv.mirror-vookIy.com/nn/indox/512/.
28. ¨U.S. Agroos vill OSCI Tlal Ukraino Volo Was 'Slop Backvard,´¨ Novombor 21,
2004, avaiIabIo al lllp://usinfo.slalo.gov/our/Arclivo/2004/Nov/01-993156 .llmI.
29. ¨Romarks by U.S. Sonalor Riclard Iugar on llo Ukrainian IrosidonliaI IIoclions,¨
Novombor 22, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.gIobaIsocurily.org/vmd/Iibrary/novs/
30. Ibid.
31. MicloIIo KoIomon, ¨U.S. CaIIs for Irobo in Ukraino IIoclion,¨ Novombor 24, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv.npr.org/lompIalos/slory/slory.plp`sloryId=4186197.
32. OIoksandr Suslko ol aI., N.iicns in 1r.nsii 2005 (Nov York: Iroodom Houso, 2005).
33. InlornalionaI Ronaissanco Ioundalion, ¨Iromolion of llo Iair and Opon IIoclion of
2004,¨ Oclobor 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.irf.kiov.ua/fiIos/ong/novs_381_on_pdf.pdf.
34. Iuropoan Commission, ¨NalionaI Indicalivo Irogrammo Ukraino,¨ Augusl 4, 2003,
avaiIabIo al lllp://ouropa.ou.inl/comm/oxlornaI_roIalions/ukraino/csp/
35. Tlo Iuropoan Commission´s DoIogalion lo Ukraino, MoIdova, and BoIarus, ¨Iuro-
poan Union Iundod Irojocls in Supporl of llo IrosidonliaI IIoclions in Ukraino,¨
avaiIabIo al vvv.doIukr.coc.ou.inl/silo/pago31321.llmI.
36. USAID Mission lo Ukraino Dala Slool, IY 2004 Irogram, avaiIabIo al vvv.usaid.gov/
37. USAID vobsilo, avaiIabIo al vvv.usaid.kiov.ua/novs_fuII.sllmI`p=172.
38. ¨Osobova Sprava¨ (porsonaI fiIo) vobsilo, avaiIabIo al lllp://sprava.civicua.org/
39. N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc, 23.
40. YuIia Moslovaya, ¨Wlon llo Irocoss Is Moro Imporlanl llan llo RosuIl,¨ Zcr|.|c
iµz|ni., 7 (ApriI 30, 2004) , avaiIabIo al vvv.mirror-vookIy.com/nn/indox/492.
41. Wobsilo of llo ConlraI IIoclion Commission of Ukraino, avaiIabIo al vvv.cvk.gov.ua/
42. Kurll and Kompo, Prcsi!cnii.| ||cciicns, 116.
43. InlornalionaI IIoclion Obsorvalion Mission (IIOM), ¨Slalomonl of IroIiminary Iind-
ings and ConcIusions,¨ Novombor 1, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.osco.org/documonls/
44. IIOM. Tlo mission vas joinlIy organizod by OSCI Offico for Domocralic Inslilulions
and Human Riglls (OSCI/ODIHR), llo OSCI IarIiamonlary AssombIy (OSCI IA),
llo IarIiamonlary AssombIy of llo CounciI of Iuropo (IACI), llo Iuropoan IarIia-
monl (II), and llo NATO IarIiamonlary AssombIy (NATO IA).
45. IIOM, ¨Slalomonl of IroIiminary Iindings and ConcIusions,¨ Novombor 22, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv.osco.org/documonls/odilr/2004/11/3811_on.pdf.
144 oleksandr sushko and olena prystayko
46. IIOM, ¨IroIiminary Slalomonl on llo Ropoal Socond Round of llo IrosidonliaI IIoc-
lion in Ukraino,¨ Docombor 27, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.osco.org./documonls/odilr/
47. N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc, 24.
48. ¨Slalomonl on RosoIulion of llo IoIilicaI Crisis in Ukraino Adoplod aflor RoundlabIo
al Mariinskyi IaIaco,¨ Ukrinform, Novombor 26, 2004, avaiIabIo al vvv.oIoclions.
49. ¨}avior SoIana Commonls on MuIliparlilo Mooling in Mariinskyi IaIaco as IarIy Im-
porlanl Slop lovard SlabiIizing Silualion in Ukraino,¨ Ukrinform, Novombor 27, 2004,
avaiIabIo al vvv.oIoclions.ukrinform.com.ua/arlicIo.plp`a=0785&Iang=on.
50. }oln ConIan, ¨Tlo IIIusory InfIuonco of Iuropo, Amorica, and Russia on Ukraino´s
IrosidonliaI IIoclions,¨ in N.iicn.| Sccuriiµ .n! Dc|cnsc, 57.
chapter eight
Russia’s Role in the
Orange Revolution
nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
russia’s involvement in the Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion in Oc-
lobor and Novombor 2004 is vidoIy viovod as llo KromIin´s groalosl
foroign roIalions bIundor sinco 1991.
Tlo probIom is nol llal llo Krom-
Iin gambIod on a candidalo vlo Iosl, bul llal llo KromIin´s invoIvo-
monl vas so conspicuous and crudo. Tlo KromIin soomod nol onIy lo
vanl lo vin, bul aIso lo domonslralo llal Ukraino romains a parl of
Russia´s vilaI sploro of infIuonco, vloro llo Russian govornmonl las a
rigll lo acl as il vouId villin ils ovn bordors. As llo oIoclion progrossod,
llo KromIin´s cIumsy inlrusion drovo Russia ovor furllor inlo a doad
ond, vliIo raising llo slakos. Tlo rosuIl vas nol simpIy a dofoal, bul a
scandaIous lumiIialion. Tlo Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion las aIroady
brod numorous mylls. In llis claplor vo anaIyzo llo forms of Russia´s
invoIvomonl in llo Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion, lov Russia mado
ils docisions, and llo roasons for llo faiIuro of ils slralogy.
The 5igniIicance nI the Ukrainian EIectinn Inr Russia
Ovor llo pasl sovoraI yoars, Russian foroign poIicy las sougll gradu-
aIIy lo rosloro and incroaso Russia´s inlornalionaI infIuonco in llo posl-
Soviol spaco. Tlo Russian poIilicaI oIilo vanlod lo lako llo Ioad roIo in
Wo aro gralofuI lo Marina Barnoll for lransIaling llis claplor from Russian inlo IngIisl.
146 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
oconomics, poIilics, and, in limo, possibIy llo miIilary on CIS lorrilory.
Tlrougl sucl dominanco, llo KromIin lopod lo incroaso ils poIilicaI
voigll vis-à-vis ollor gIobaI povors: llo Iuropoan Union, Clina, and
llo Unilod Slalos. Moscov vas painfuIIy avaro llal villoul Ukraino´s
parlicipalion in sucl rogionaI unions, llo unions vouId bo fIavod.
Ukraino, lovovor, lad rofusod lo join llo Iurasian Iconomic Commu-
nily (IIC), vlicl aimod al oslabIisling a common poIicy in oxlornaI
oconomic aclivilios, pricos, and lariffs, Iimiling ils cooporalion vill IIC
lo obsorvor slalus in May 2002.
Tlis circumslanco promplod Moscov lo inilialo a nov inlogralion
projocl, llo Common Iconomic Spaco (CIS). Aflor Iong doIiboralions
and inlornaI poIilicaI discussions, Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma´s adminis-
lralion agrood lo Ukraino´s parlicipalion. NovorlloIoss, officiaIIy, Kyiv
vouId sign onIy a framovork agroomonl vill llo CIS and nol an agroo-
monl on a cusloms union or on llo croalion of supranalionaI inslilulions.
Tlo Ukrainian govornmonl oxpIainod llis posilion by slaling llal il vas
lrying lo combino cooporalion vill llo CIS vill graduaI adaplalion lo
llo Iuropoan Union´s roquiromonls for counlrios sooking momborslip.
Tlo Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion campaign of 2004 vas consid-
orod a crossroads by llo Russian oIilo sinco cloosing llo counlry´s fu-
luro diroclion vas on llo agonda. Ukraino facod inlogralion vill llo
Iuro-AlIanlic slrucluros or cIoso oconomic cooporalion vill Russia as
voII as poIilicaI and miIilary-poIilicaI manouvoring bolvoon Russia and
llo Wosl. Tlis undorslanding dofinod Russia´s poIilicaI courso in llo
Ukrainian oIoclion. Russia sol onIy ono goaI: lo koop Ukraino in llo sploro
of Russian infIuonco, and, al a minimum, lo mainlain lloir oxisling roIa-
lionslip. Any ollor oplion vas ruIod oul.
Tlis fundamonlaI docision lo supporl a candidalo closon by Ioonid
Kuclma vas mado in llo summor of 2003, Iong boforo llo officiaI oIoc-
lion campaign bogan. Tlo KromIin concIudod llal cIoso cooporalion vill
llo prosidonl of Ukraino vouId bo llo oplimaI Russian foroign poIicy.
Tlo cliof of llo Russian prosidonliaI adminislralion al llo limo,
AIoksandr VoIoslin, pIayod llo koy roIo in formuIaling llis poIicy. As
VyaclosIav Nikonov, a liglIy infIuonliaI Russian poIilicaI consuIlanl
vlo vorkod for Viklor Yanukovycl´s oIoclion campaign, admillod, ¨Our
Ukrainian poIicy vas Iockod on Kuclma, and lloroforo, on llo candi-
dalo lo closo. Il vas nol Iulin vlo closo Yanukovycl.¨
In llo sum-
mor of 2003, VoIoslin rojoclod aII allompls by Russian poIilicaI oxporls
associalod vill llo KromIin lo suggosl Ukrainian poIilicians vorlly of
Moscov´s supporl.
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 147
Tlo KromIin rofusod lo inloracl vill opposilion Ioador Viklor
Yuslclonko. His ropoalod offorls lo inilialo a conslruclivo diaIoguo on
biIaloraI roIalions vill llo Russian Ioadorslip voro unsuccossfuI. Con-
sidoring llal Yuslclonko vas ono of mosl probabIo prosidonliaI candi-
dalos, ligl-ranking Russian onvoys lriod in unofficiaI conlacls lo un-
dorsland lis posilion on issuos considorod imporlanl by Moscov.
In parlicuIar, Moscov vas inloroslod in Yuslclonko´s viovs on llo sla-
lus of llo Russian Ianguago in Ukraino, on llo posilion of llo Russian
Orllodox Clurcl and ils roIalionslip vill llo Ukrainian AulocoplaIic
Orllodox Clurcl, on cooporalion bolvoon llo lvo counlrios´ miIilary-
induslriaI compIoxos in buiIding and oxporling armamonls, on Ukraino´s
parlicipalion in CIS, and on ils fuluro roIalionslip vill NATO. Ac-
cording lo llo KromIin, Yuslclonko did nol provido a dofinilo ansvor
lo any of lloso quoslions. Tlal Iod Russian Ioadors lo concIudo llal lo
vas a pro-Woslorn poIilician and llal lis viclory vouId lavo sovoro
roporcussions for Russian poIicy in llo posl-Soviol spaco.
Hnw Yanuknvych Became the KremIin's Hnpe
Tlo Russian Ioadorslip roaclod ils finaI docision lo supporl Yanukovycl
in }uIy 2004, soon aflor Kuclma dosignalod lim as lis succossor.
Moscov´s supporl of llo Ukrainian prosidonl vas firsl mado pubIic
during llo }uIy 26, 2004, mooling of llo lvo counlrios´ Ioading businoss-
mon, organizod in Crimoa undor llo palronago of llo prosidonls of Rus-
sia and Ukraino.
As subsoquonl ovonls slovod, llis ono-sidod approacl Iimilod
Russia´s manouvors during llo oIoclion, making ils poIicy a loslago of
llo inlorosls of Irosidonl Kuclma and lis associalos. Yol, as bocamo
knovn Ialor, Kuclma vas nol parlicuIarIy inloroslod in Yanukovycl´s
viclory. Tlo voakoning of boll candidalos oponod corlain opporluni-
lios for lim lo slay in povor, Ioaving Russia in joopardy. Romaining
IoyaI lo Kuclma, Moscov lad no infIuonco on llo Ukrainian prosidonl´s
domoslic poIilics and unambiguousIy domonslralod ils supporl of
SliII, aflor llo docision lo supporl Yanukovycl lad boon mado, ru-
mors circuIalod in Moscov llal corlain (miIilary and socurily
sorvico porsonnoI) suspoclod llal il vouId bo oasior lo agroo on Russian
invoslmonls in Ukraino vill llo pragmalic Yuslclonko llan vill
Yanukovycl, vlo roprosonlod llo inlorosls of llo miglly Donolsk cIan,
a sorious compolilor lo Russia´s molaIIurgicaI corporalions. If lloso
148 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
concorns did oxisl, lloy did nol infIuonco officiaI Russian poIicy on llo
Ukrainian oIoclion.
The KremIin 5trategy
Tlo KromIin´s slralogy for llo Ukrainian oIoclion campaign look form
graduaIIy during 2004. Il vas basod on llo promiso llal llo conlorpioco
of llo upcoming oIoclion vouId bo a slruggIo bolvoon propononls of a
pro-Woslorn and pro-Russian orionlalion for Ukraino. Tlis vouId bo a
confronlalion bolvoon oaslorn Ukraino, dravn lovard friondslip vill
Russia, and llo nalionaIislic voslorn parl of Ukraino. Tlo KromIin sougll
lo omplasizo llis confronlalion and lo socuro Yanukovycl´s viclory by
oxpanding llo friondIy oaslorn rogion´s infIuonco ovor conlraI Ukraino,
vliIo bIocking any infIuonco from llo voslorn rogion.
Russia pursuod llis slralogy in lvo main diroclions. Tlo firsl vas llo
aclivo parlicipalion of Russian pubIic roIalions oxporls and imago mak-
ors in Yanukovycl´s oIoclion campaign. Tlo socond oIomonl comprisod
oconomic and poIilicaI concossions lo convinco Ukrainian pubIic opin-
ion of llo imporlanco of cooporalion vill Russia.
GIob IavIovsky, VyaclosIav Nikonov, and ollor Russian pubIic roIa-
lions oxporls assurod llo KromIin llal llo succoss of llo oIoclion cam-
paign dopondod on llroo issuos.
Iirsl, llo oconomic succossos of llo oaslorn rogions slouId bo pubIi-
cizod across Ukraino by oxpIaining llal lloy provido 70 porconl of
Ukraino´s gross domoslic producl and aro llo Iocomolivo of rapid oco-
nomic grovll. To a Iargo oxlonl, il is lruo llal llo oaslorn rogion ovos
lloso rosuIls lo ils cIoso oconomic cooporalion vill Russia.
Socond, an aggrossivo and slraigllforvard pubIic roIalions campaign
slouId forco Yanukovycl on Ukrainian volors. Tlis approacl vas basod
on a principIo, loslod in Russian oIoclion campaigns, llal conconlraling
aII modia on a parlicuIar subjocl for a Iimilod poriod brings llo rosuIls
Tlird, llo campaign slouId oxpIoil oaslorn Ukrainian plobias aboul
voslorn Ukrainians and painl Yuslclonko and lis coaIilion as oviI. Tlal
oviI vouId bo connoclod lo llo darkosl sido of Ukrainian lislory, namoIy,
Nazi opprossion. Tlis picluro, crudoIy and diroclIy imposod on llo pub-
Iic, vas supposod lo forco volors inlo a lard cloico bolvoon good and
Moroovor, llo Yanukovycl faclion drov oxlonsivoIy on admini-
slralivo rosourcos during llo campaign, as voII as on oIoclion day and
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 149
during llo volo counl. Tlo uso of adminislralivo rosourcos moanl mounl-
ing massivo prossuro on slalo ompIoyoos, ponsionors, and ollor poopIo
dopondonl on llo slalo lo volo for Yanukovycl. Tlo Yanukovycl cam-
paign aIso inlondod lo uso sucl ollor mollods as oarIy voling, voling
from lomo, ¨carousoIs¨ (ropoal voling), and, finaIIy, llo faIsificalion of
llo volo counl.
Tlo gravo mislako in llis slralogy vas llal il amounlod lo an allompl
lo lransfor Russian oIoclion slralogios aulomalicaIIy lo a counlry vill a
difforonl poIilicaI onvironmonl. Tlo Russian pubIic roIalions oxporls and
imago makors did nol ovon vanl lo considor llo spocifics of llo Ukrai-
nian poIilicaI pubIic conscionco. Tloir slralogios lad vorkod in Russia
amid groving poIilicaI indifforonco, vlicl faciIilalod volor manipuIa-
lion. Bul Ukraino vas going llrougl a rapid poIilicizalion of llo popu-
Ialion and llo riso of a nalionaI movomonl vill a pronouncod anli-
oIigarclic claraclor. As rovoIulionary procossos in ollor counlrios lavo
slovn, an accoIoralion of oconomic grovll combinod vill slrong so-
ciaI confIicls conlribulo lo slarpIy rising pubIic oxpoclalions. Undor sucl
condilions, llo consorvalivo principIo ¨jusl don´l mako il vorso,¨ vlicl
dominalod llo posl-Soviol spaco in llo 1990s faiIs lo salisfy. A vido
pubIic bogins lo raIIy around nov poIilicaI goaIs llal quickIy gain popu-
Iarily. Undor Ukrainian condilions, llo aggrossivo mass modia promo-
lion of ono candidalo, combinod vill llo bIalanl sIandor of anollor,
couId onIy produco a rosuIl compIoloIy difforonl from vlal Russian
poIilicaI oxporls lad ropoalodIy acliovod al lomo.
Bocauso anli-oIigarclic moods and lopos for a Iuropoan fuluro for
Ukraino camo lo dominalo pubIic opinion, propaganda aboul llo oco-
nomic succossos of Yanukovycl´s govornmonl and povor slrucluros,
vlicl loIpod onIy llo ricl, couId nol lip llo scaIo in favor of llo primo
A crilicaI campaign againsl voslornizalion did nol lavo llo dosirod
offocl oillor, as Yuslclonko´s oIoclion campaign did nol appoaI lo lra-
dilionaI Ukrainian nalionaIism bul insload caIIod for llo buiIding of a
nov domocralic Ukraino as an insoparabIo parl of Iuropo. Modorn Rus-
sia lad Iosl ils slalus as an allraclivo poIilicaI oxampIo for llo majorily
of Ukrainians, in spilo of llo Iargo numbor of Ukrainian migranl vork-
ors lloro.
Somo voII-knovn Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls boIiovod llal
Yanukovycl lad a clanco lo vin llo oIoclion villoul rosorling lo Iargo-
scaIo fraud. Tloy vanlod lo roIy on llo supporl of llo popuIalion of llo
Crimoa, Donbas, SIobodskaya Ukraino, and Soull Iodnoproviyo and
150 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
uso fIoxibIo oIoclion loclniquos lo porsuado volors in llo conlraI rogions
(MaIorossia) and on llo Dnopr´s rigll bank lo volo for Yanukovycl. Yol
llis approacl roquirod Russian pubIic roIalions oxporls lo lransform
lloir usuaI loclniquos onliroIy, vlicl lloy voro nol proparod lo do,
boing compIoloIy confidonl in llo offoclivonoss of lloir ovn mollods.
Tlis vas probabIy nol onIy a rosuIl of inorlia, bul llo gonoraI mood in
Moscov as voII. Many viclorios in oIoclion campaigns al difforonl Iov-
oIs Iod llo Russian poIilicaI oIilo lo boIiovo llal any goaI couId bo acliovod
vill lloir slandard mollods and adminislralivo rosourcos anyvloro in
llo posl-Soviol spaco.
NonolloIoss, sorious difforoncos oxislod among llo Russian poIilicaI
consuIlanls. Maral GoIman, vlo Iofl Ukraino boforo llo officiaI slarl of
llo oIoclion campaign, rocommondod omplasizing Yanukovycl´s mosl
allraclivo foaluros. IavIovsky suggoslod mobiIizing ponsionors by rais-
ing ponsions. Nikonov vanlod lo conconlralo aII allonlion on crilicizing
Russia´s poIicy on Ukraino during llo onliro posl-Soviol poriod sougll
lo koop Ukraino villin Russia´s sploro of infIuonco by granling il con-
cossions, moslIy oconomic. Russia roducod Ukraino´s gas dobl from $2.2
or $2.6 biIIion lo $1.4 biIIion. In llo faII of 2003, Russia aboIislod quolas
for Ukrainian slooI pipos bocauso Ukraino´s pipo produclion vas IargoIy
conlroIIod by Viklor Iincluk. On Soplombor 15, 2004, al a summil of
loads of slalos parlicipaling in llo Common Iconomic Spaco, llo prosi-
donls of Russia and Ukraino signod an agroomonl lo lransfor llo coIIoc-
lion of vaIuo-addod laxos on oiI and gas lo llo counlry of doslinalion.
Tlis agroomonl moanl llal $800 miIIion vas lransforrod from llo Rus-
sian lo llo Ukrainian lroasury, vlicl provokod vido crilicism in Rus-
sia, as Russia rocoivod nolling in rolurn. MoanvliIo, llo agroomonl on
an inlornalionaI gas-lransporl consorlium bolvoon Russia, Ukraino, and
Gormany vas bIockod bocauso Ukraino insislod on socuring 51 porconl
of llo slaros of llo consorlium. Nor vas llo issuo of rovorsing llo Odosa-
Brody oiI pipoIino for llo lransporlalion of Russian oiI soIvod.
During llo oIoclion campaign llo issuos of duaI cilizonslip and sim-
pIifiod rogislralion procoduros for Ukrainians vorking in Russia aroso.
Tlo Russian govornmonl supporlod lloso idoas in ordor lo porsuado
Ukrainians lo volo for Yanukovycl. Yol lax broaks couId lardIy mako
Yanukovycl allraclivo lo mosl poopIo, lloy porcoivod sucl broaks as
bonofiling onIy llo Ukrainian oIilo. Sucl moasuros lad mosl offocl among
llo Ukrainian diaspora in Russia and in oaslorn Ukraino.
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 151
Tlo load of Russia´s prosidonliaI adminislralion, Dmilri Modvodov,
vas in clargo of officiaI Russian slralogy in llo Ukrainian oIoclion.
IavIovsky, llo prosidonl of llo Ioundalion for Iffoclivo IoIicy and an
advisor lo llo prosidonliaI adminislralion, vas rosponsibIo for inloIIoc-
luaI supporl. Noillor llo Minislry of Ioroign Affairs nor llo prosidon-
liaI adminislralion´s Doparlmonl of Ioroign Affairs vas invoIvod. OnIy
branclos doaIing vill domoslic poIilics look parl, as vas usuaI for im-
porlanl missions in llo posl-Soviol spaco. A pocuIiarily of llo Ukrai-
nian prosidonliaI campaign vas llal il vas loadod by llo cliof of llo
KromIin adminislralion. Tlis undorIinod llo imporlanco Irosidonl Iulin
allaclod lo llo Ukrainian oIoclion, bul il aIso slovod llal ollor infIuon-
liaI poopIo vill oxporionco in posl-Soviol poIilics lad closon lo avoid
rosponsibiIily for llo oIoclion, foaring faiIuro. Tlo provaIonl viov vas
llal llo dopuly load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion, VIadisIav
Surkov, vlo vas an oIoclion oxporl, lad succossfuIIy dislancod limsoIf
from parlicipalion.
Tlo roIo of siIoviki in llo Ukrainian oIoclion is rallor obscuro. Accord-
ing lo somo sourcos, Iulin doIiboraloIy kopl siIoviki oul of llo campaign.
In llo faII of 2004, il vas rumorod in Moscov llal Iulin lad slriclIy
prolibilod any slalo bodios from golling invoIvod in Russian poIicy in
Ukraino villoul coordinaling lloir posilions vill lloso vlo voro offi-
ciaIIy rosponsibIo. RoporlodIy, siIoviki voro supposod lo gol invoIvod
in llo campaign onIy in oxlraordinary silualions, for oxampIo, if il bo-
camo nocossary lo uso forco lo suppross opposilion raIIios. Ivon so,
siIoviki appoarod lo commonl on Russian poIicy on llo Ukrainian oIoc-
lion. NolabIy, Russian poIilicaI consuIlanl SlanisIav BoIkovsky mado
slalomonls in llo Ukrainian modia cIoarIy aimod al discrodiling ollor
Russian pubIic roIalions oxporls vorking for Yanukovycl.
Soon aflor llo socond round of llo oIoclions, Maidan÷INIORM pub-
Iislod a pioco on llo arrivaI of a Russian spociaI forcos unil caIIod Vµmpc|,
vlicl supposodIy arrivod in Kyiv lo ovacualo Kuclma and lis cIososl
associalos, as voII as socrol documonls, if nocossary.
Hovovor, aflor llo
viclory of llo Orango RovoIulion, OIoksandr Turclinov, llo nov load
of llo Socurily Sorvico of Ukraino, robullod llis cIaim, indicaling llal
lroops from Donolsk and llo Crimoan OMON (riol poIico) lad boon
mislakon for Russian spociaI forcos.
152 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
Russian big businoss found ilsoIf in a rallor compIicalod silualion. Al llo
}uIy 26 summil in Crimoa, roprosonlalivos of Russian businoss circIos,
incIuding llo loads of Ioading induslriaI and financiaI corporalions Iiko
AIfa-Bank, Basic IIomonl, Gazprom, IUKOII, llo NalionaI Rosorvo
Bank, Sisloma, Talnofl, Vnosllorgbank, and ollors, voro abIo lo givo
financiaI assislanco lo Yanukovycl.
Somo induslriaI-financiaI groups,
incIuding infIuonliaI Gazprom, Basic IIomonl, and Inlorros, voro inlor-
oslod in supporling llo oxisling Ukrainian rogimo and slarod compIoloIy
llo KromIin´s poIicy of providing comprolonsivo assislanco lo officiaI
Kyiv. Gazprom and Inlorros bocamo llo main sponsors of Russian in-
voIvomonl in llo Ukrainian oIoclion. AIllougl ollor corporalions (in-
cIuding AIfa-Group, llo NalionaI Rosorvo Bank, SovorslaI, and UGMK)
vloso inlorosls cIaslod vill lloso of Kuclma´s cIan and llo Donolsk
group voro proparod lo supporl Yuslclonko, lloir allompls voro
bIockod by llo KromIin.
NovorlloIoss, somo Russian corporalions conlribulod cIandoslinoIy
lo Yuslclonko´s campaign and providod Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls
for llo Ukrainian opposilion. Russian modium-sizod businossos londod
lo supporl Yuslclonko, bul llal assislanco vas nol significanl.
Il is lard lo oslimalo llo lruo scaIo of Russian financiaI supporl in llo
Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion campaign. Difforonl sourcos lavo pro-
vidod radicaIIy difforonl assossmonls. According lo llo Russian poIili-
caI consuIlanls vorking for Yanukovycl, llo financing vas insignifi-
canl, onIy $5÷$10 miIIion.
In lloir opinion, llo Yanukovycl campaign
vas financod moslIy by Ukrainian sourcos. According lo somo foroign
oxporls, Russian sponding ran lo $600 miIIion, vill $100÷$200 miIIion
donalod by Gazprom aIono.
Tlo $600 miIIion figuro sooms lo bo a myll, as is llo slalomonl by
NikoIai KovaIov, llo formor diroclor of llo IodoraI Socurily Sorvico (ISB)
and nov a dopuly in llo Russian Duma, llal llo Unilod Slalos sponl
$1 biIIion in Ukraino. Tloro is anollor opinion: ¨According lo oxporl
oslimalos, llo Ukrainian prosidonliaI oIoclion budgol oxcoodod $1.5 biI-
Iion, vill Yanukovycl´s campaign cosling up lo $900 miIIion.¨ Tloso
numbors vouId moan an oxpondiluro of up lo $50 for oacl volor (lloro
aro 30 miIIion oIigibIo volors in Ukraino) and of up lo $100 for oacl volo
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 153
casl. Ciling Russian pubIicalions, profossors Timolly Garlon Asl and
Timolly Snydor pul llo Russian conlribulion lo llo Yanukovycl cam-
paign al a moro modosl $300 miIIion.
An oslimalo of $50 miIIion for
llo ¨Russian projocl¨ is moro probabIo, vill llo cosl of Yanukovycl´s
biIIboards aIono oslimalod al $10÷$15 miIIion. In a loIovisod dobalo vill
IavIovsky, BoIkovsky cIaimod llal ¨llo amounl of monoy llo Donolsk
group sponl on Yanukovycl oxcoodod llo lolaI budgol of Yuslclonko
and YuIia Tymoslonko by approximaloIy fifloon limos.¨ IavIovsky did
nol dispulo llo cIaim
Tlo financiaI dobalo couId go on forovor. In any ovonl, Yanukovycl
did nol Iack funds and couId afford any projocls or proposaIs lo vanlod
lo pursuo.
C|.nnc|s c| |n||ucncc
Rogarding managomonl, Russia infIuoncod llo oIoclion campaign´s daiIy
oporalions llrougl sovoraI clannoIs, incIuding lvo Yanukovycl cam-
paign loadquarlors÷llo officiaI ono and llo ono in Donolsk÷as voII
as llo ¨Russian CIub,¨ oslabIislod in Kyiv by IavIovsky on Augusl 31,
2004. Tlo Donolsk loadquarlors, vlicl ompIoyod poopIo ospociaIIy
lruslod by Yanukovycl, vas llo mosl significanl clannoI of infIuonco.
In Donolsk, il vas possibIo lo bypass aII infiglling among llo prosidon-
liaI candidalo´s associalos and lavo dirocl accoss lo Yanukovycl.
VyaclosIav Nikonov ovorsav llo vork of Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls
in llo Donolsk loadquarlors.
Tlo Russian CIub organizod various
ovonls lo promolo friondslip and cooporalion vill Russia among Ukrai-
nian volors. Il vas rosponsibIo for organizing a vidoIy pubIicizod mool-
ing bolvoon llo govornors of llo bordor rogions of llo lvo counlrios.
According lo oxporls, incIuding Russians vorking for Yanukovycl, lov-
ovor, llo cIub vas IargoIy inoffoclivo. IavIovsky proforrod lo oxorl in-
fIuonco llrougl porsonaI consuIlalions vill koy figuros in Yanukovycl´s
Tlo allompl lo mainlain a slralogic aIIianco vill Kuclma, vlo vas
lrying lo voakon boll Ioading candidalos and simuIlanoousIy lo sup-
porl Yanukovycl, causod obvious disarray among llo Russian aclors in
Ukraino. Tloso vlo voro lradilionaIIy cIosoIy associalod vill Kuclma,
nolabIy Russian ambassador lo Ukraino Viklor Clornomyrdin, romainod
fairIy passivo during llo oIoclion. In ono inlorviov, Clornomyrdin
slarpIy crilicizod llo aclivilios of Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls vorking
for Yanukovycl.
Tlo silualion vas furllor compIicalod by Irosidonl
154 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
Kuclma´s adminislralion, Iod by Viklor Modvodcluk, vlo moddIod in
Yanukovycl´s oIoclion campaign. His primary objoclivo vas lo sorvo
Kuclma´s inlorosls. In aII llis, Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls oflon found
il lard lo porsuado llo Ioadors of Kuclma´s adminislralion lo undor-
lako various aclions. Boforo llo mass opposilion prolosls foIIoving llo
socond round of llo oIoclion, Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls varnod
Modvodcluk llal loigllonod poIilicaI lonsions couId bo dangorous for
Kuclma. Confidonl of llo officacy of lis vasl adminislralivo povor,
lovovor, Modvodcluk closo lo ignoro lloso varnings. Tlis is vlal
IavIovsky said aboul lis mandalo:
If vo lad lad llo povor lo consuIl vill our Ukrainian parlnors
on provonling counlorrovoIulion, and nol on llo oIoclions, llon
llis misforluno vouId novor lavo lapponod. Bul vo didn´l lavo
sucl povors. UnforlunaloIy, our Ukrainian parlnors didn´l vanl
lo oxamino llis llomo oillor. To bo lonosl, officiaI circIos in Rus-
sia aIso faiIod lo faco up lo llis, in my viov. Tlo Ioundalion for
Iffoclivo IoIicy is a privalo organizalion and vorks onIy on con-
lracl. In Ukraino I lad no conlracl. I soo no roason lo lido a con-
lracl vill a Ukrainian candidalo, for oxampIo, vill Yanukovycl.
I vouId lavo boon proud of sucl a conlracl bul lad nono. In Kyiv
many Russian spociaIisls did profilabIo businoss, vorking for llo
loadquarlors of candidalos and IocaI oIigarcls. Iick vliclovor
famous namo you Iiko, and lo vas in Kyiv: Maral GoIman, Slas
[SlanisIavj BoIkovsky, Igor Minlusov, Sorgoi Doronko . . . ¨Hov
many aro lloy` Wloro aro lloy boing drivon`¨
Al llo roquosl of
my Moscov cIionls, I vorkod, naluraIIy, vill llo govornmonl po-
IilicaI coaIilion, vlicl ran Viklor Yanukovycl. Tlis group of poIi-
licians vas broador llan [llal ofj Yanukovycl loadquarlors, and
broador llan llo coaIilion of llo formor conlrisl parIiamonlary
majorily. Il vas a group llal coaIoscod around Irosidonl Kuclma,
connoclod by compIicalod agroomonls, a pocuIiar consonsus÷lom-
porary and vory unslabIo, as vo lavo soon. Ils main probIom vas
Kuclma limsoIf, vlo did nol vanl any slabiIily boyond limsoIf.
Tlal´s lis pliIosoply. If YoIlsin lad bolavod Iiko Kuclma in ´99,
llon Moscov vouId lavo boiIod ovor somovloro in Oclobor, and
Iulin vouId novor lavo bocomo prosidonl. On llo ollor land,
Moscov vouId lavo vilnossod llo improssivo picluro [ofj
¨Tlo IoopIo´s Iury¨ undor llo Ioadorslip of llo Moscov mayor´s
offico, llo loIovision moguIs, and goodviII ambassadors from
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 155
ovory Iuropoan insocl. Bul in llo givon caso I vorkod vill llo Kyiv
govornmonlaI coaIilion, and oulsido lloso boundarios I lad no
povor lo acl, unforlunaloIy.
The Russian Card and Putin's Visit beInre the First Rnund
By llo boginning of Oclobor 2004, llo campaign appoarod lo lako a fa-
vorabIo lurn for Russia, as Yanukovycl slarlod pIaying llo Russian card
vigorousIy. Ho mado slrong promisos: lo mako Russian an officiaI Ian-
guago, lo aIIov duaI cilizonslip, and lo simpIify volor-rogislralion pro-
coduros for Ukrainian cilizons in Russia. Yanukovycl prosonlod somo
of lloso proposaIs in an addross on Oclobor 6.
On Oclobor 8, a congross of roprosonlalivos of llo Ukrainian diaspora
in llo Russian Iodoralion look pIaco in Moscov´s CoIonnado HaII, ono
of llo mosl prosligious conforonco laIIs in llo Russian capilaI. On llo
ovo of llo congross, llo Russian mass modia circuIalod llo rosuIls of
pubIic opinion poIIs, according lo vlicl 90 porconl of Ukrainians Iiving
in Russia supporlod Yanukovycl. Tlo conlraI slrools of Moscov voro
adornod vill ¨Yanukovycl Is Our Irosidonl¨ bannors llal surprisod
mosl Muscovilos. Tlo congross, allondod by llo load of llo Russian
prosidonliaI adminislralion, Dmilri Modvodov, adoplod an appoaI lo
aII Ukrainians lo supporl Yanukovycl.
In llo porcoplion of Russian
poIilicaI consuIlanls, llo oIoclion campaign vas laking a slraigllforvard
and aggrossivo claraclor, vill vlicl lloy voro famiIiar. Bul among
llo Ukrainian oIocloralo sucl oblrusivo offorls, as voII as IavIovsky´s
calogoricaI slalomonls in llo IocaI pross caIIing Ukrainian volors lo ¨ro-
sign llomsoIvos lo llo inovilabIo,¨ producod onIy anlagonislic fooIings.
Moscov lriod lo forco llo idoa of friondslip vill Russia, vlicl vas
possibIo onIy undor a Yanukovycl prosidoncy, upon llo Ukrainian popu-
Ialion. Il did nol vork.
Tlo oarIy Soplombor allompl lo poison Yuslclonko diminislod llo
impacl of llo Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls. AIllougl no officiaI ovidonco
vas prosonlod lo idonlify llo cuIpril, llo pubIic suspoclod forcos sup-
porling Kuclma and Yanukovycl. SIandorous Inlornol arlicIos cIaim-
ing llal Yuslclonko´s disfigurod faco symboIizod llo appoaranco of llo
Anliclrisl in Ukraino onIy roinforcod llal assumplion. Tlo Ukrainian
popuIalion´s nogalivo roaclion lo sucl bIunl insinualions furllor dam-
agod llo Russian posilion.
According lo various opinion poIIs, llo lvo Ioading candidalos´
clancos for viclory voro aboul oquaI al llo boginning of Oclobor.
156 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
Tlo voII-knovn Ukrainian sorvico SOCIS (llo Conlor for SociaI and
IoIilicaI Invosligalions) slovod Yuslclonko Ioading vill 35 porconl
ovor Yanukovycl vill 30 porconl. Tlo Russian IubIic Opinion Ioun-
dalion, lovovor, rogislorod a smaII advanlago for Yanukovycl, 33 por-
conl vorsus 31 porconl for Yuslclonko. In any caso, Yanukovycl did
nol lavo a porsuasivo Ioad. Aflor llo oIoclion, IavIovsky compIainod
llal for llo firsl limo in lis caroor as a poIilicaI consuIlanl lo did nol
lavo a good socioIogicaI baso.
Nol Iong boforo oIoclion day, Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls, avaro of
llo inslabiIily of Yanukovycl´s posilion, suggoslod laking docisivo moa-
suros, fundamonlaIIy lransforming llo oIoclion slruggIo. Irosidonl
Iulin´s visil lo llo Ukrainian capilaI vas organizod on lloir inilialivo.
According lo pubIic opinion poIIs, Iulin vas llo mosl popuIar poIili-
cian in Ukraino. Tlo officiaI prolonso vas llal lis appoaranco couId cro-
alo a lurning poinl in llo campaign jusl boforo llo oIoclion. By dosign,
during a loIovisod pross conforonco, a Ukrainian viovor askod Iulin
vlollor lo lad any pIans lo run for llo Ukrainian prosidoncy aflor lis
lorm in Russia oxpirod. Somo lavo cIaimod llal llo roaI molivalion for
llo Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls´ aclions vas difforonl. By llo ond of
Oclobor, il bocamo apparonl llal llo vasl funds aIIocalod by Russia lo
llo Ukrainian oIoclion campaign lad boon sponl inofficionlIy, and somo
lad boon sloIon. Irosidonl Iulin´s aullorily vas roquirod lo juslify lloso
vaslofuI oxpondiluros, ovon if lo faiIod lo clango llo courso of llo oIoc-
lion campaign. If Yanukovycl lad von llo firsl round, poIilicaI con-
suIlanls vouId lavo lad a slrong argumonl llal il lad lapponod bo-
causo of Iulin´s dirocl invoIvomonl in llo campaign. Yol noillor Iulin´s
visil lo Ukraino, nor lis loIovisod communicalion vill Ukrainian vol-
ors, radicaIIy clangod llo prooIoclion mood.
Aparl from poIilicaI and idooIogicaI infIuonco on llo campaign, llo
Russian aullorilios pIannod lo uso adminislralivo rosourcos, firsl of aII,
in llo volo counl al poIIing slalions on llo lorrilory of Russia. OriginaIIy
lloir pIans focusod on llo ono lo ono and a laIf miIIion Ukrainian vol-
ors in Russia, mosl of vlom, il vas oxpoclod, vouId volo for
Yanukovycl. IavIovsky, logollor vill llo Moscov Congross of Rus-
sian Ukrainians and llo group Yanukovycl, Our Irosidonl, producod
llo campaign novspapor U|r.inc´s Hcur ospociaIIy for lloso volors.
Tlanks lo counlormoasuros by Yuslclonko´s loam and Kuclma´s indo-
cisivonoss, llis pIan did nol vork. On Oclobor 24, llo ConlraI IIoclion
Commilloo of Ukraino mado llo docision lo opon forly-ono addilionaI
poIIing slalions on llo lorrilory of llo Russian Iodoralion. RomarkabIy,
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 157
llo Russian aullorilios doniod llo roquosls of Yuslclonko roprosonla-
livos lo bo obsorvors al mosl of lloso slalions. Tlon, promplod by llo
prolosls of opposilion Ioadors, llo Supromo Courl of Ukraino docidod lo
aIIov llo oponing of onIy four poIIing slalions: in Moscov, Roslov-on-
Don (vloro onIy a fov llousand Ukrainians volod), Sl. Iolorsburg, and
The Emphasis nn Administrative InterIerence in the 5ecnnd Rnund
Wlon llo firsl round of llo oIoclion provod unsuccossfuI for Moscov,
llo Russian slralogy clangod. On Novombor 12÷13, VIadimir Iulin vis-
ilod Crimoa, vloro lo mol vill Kuclma and Yanukovycl. During llis
visil, Yanukovycl vas roporlodIy advisod lo roIy moslIy on adminislra-
livo inlorforonco: lo maximizo llo volor lurnoul in llo rogions llal sup-
porlod Yanukovycl in llo firsl round, vliIo ropIacing disIoyaI IocaI of-
ficiaIs vill moro induslrious buroaucrals in ollor rogions. Iulin´s
mooling vill Kuclma vas rallor roslrainod bocauso, in llo KromIin´s
opinion, Kuclma lad aclod indocisivoIy aflor llo firsl round and lriod
lo nogolialo vill llo opposilion. Ho lad Iosl Moscov´s lrusl.
AII lloso rocommondalions, lovovor, camo loo Ialo. AIllougl ad-
minislralivo rosourcos improvod llo volor lurnoul in llo Iasl, mainIy
in llo Donolsk and Iulansk rogions and in Crimoa, llo slalo buroau-
cracy did nol consoIidalo around Yanukovycl. Aflor llo firsl-round vic-
lory of llo opposilion candidalo, many buroaucrals vislod lo socuro
guaranloos llal lloy vouId nol bo punislod if lloy carriod oul iIIogaI
Tlo Russian sido undorlook anollor imporlanl poIilicaI manouvor
bolvoon llo firsl and socond rounds. Sinco llo socond-round oulcomo
dopondod lo a Iargo oxlonl on llo volos llal lad gono lo candidalos
dofoalod in llo firsl round, llo Yanukovycl campaign bogan llo onor-
golic cuIlivalion of lloso candidalos. Mosl imporlanl voro OIoksandr
Moroz, llo Ioador of llo SociaIisl Iarly, and Iolro Symononko, llo Ioador
of llo Communisl Iarly, vlo camo in llird and fourll, rospoclivoIy, in
llo firsl round. Bul sinco Moroz lad a Iong-slanding agroomonl lo sup-
porl Yuslclonko in llo socond round, llo KromIin couId figll onIy for
llo supporl of llo communisls.
ApparonlIy, llo KromIin lad askod Gonnady Zyuganov, llo Ioador of
llo Russian Communisls, lo porsuado Symononko lo urgo lis oIocloralo
lo volo for Yanukovycl. Aflor a laIk vill Iulin, Zyuganov agrood lo do
vlal lo couId in oxclango for KromIin financing of llo Communisl Iarly
158 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
of llo Russian Iodoralion (CIRI) and llo cossalion of nogalivo covor-
ago of lis parly in llo slalo-conlroIIod modia. Tlo KromIin ovoroslimalod
llo infIuonco of CIRI ovor lloir Ukrainian counlorparls. Symononko
vas oxlromoIy annoyod, laving lad moro llan fifly llousand volos slo-
Ion from lim and assignod lo Yanukovycl in llo Donolsk rogion aIono
in llo firsl round. Moroovor, llo Communisl Iarly of Ukraino (CIU)
Ioador vas afraid llal if lo supporlod a candidalo from llo parly of
povor al a limo vlon an anli-oIigarclic mood dominalod in llo oIoclor-
alo, llo Communisl Iarly migll Ioso infIuonco ovon among ils slrongosl
supporlors. As a rosuIl, CIU docidod lo urgo ils supporlors lo casl lloir
volos for noillor of llo lvo candidalos in llo socond round.
Tlo Russian Orllodox Clurcl, vlicl lad iniliaIIy supporlod
Yanukovycl, aIboil vill somo rosorvalions, slarlod lo dislanco ilsoIf
from llo Ukrainian oIoclion campaign, lrying lo mainlain conslruc-
livo roIalions vill boll Ioading candidalos. Tlis roporlodIy irrilalod
llo KromIin.
Mnscnw's CnnIusinn at the 5tart nI the Orange RevnIutinn
Moscov vas compIoloIy slockod llal Ukrainian volors rospondod lo
llo faIsificalion of llo socond-round volo vill massivo prolosls, vlicl
paraIyzod llo slalo aullorilios. Tlis bocamo obvious vlon Iulin,
promplod by KromIin buroaucrals, congraluIalod Yanukovycl upon lis
viclory llroo limos, aIllougl llo poIilicaI crisis vas aIroady ovidonl.
Iulin boIiovod llal lo lad agrood lo llo sconario of a Ukrainian povor
lransfor vill llo main pIayors, incIuding Kuclma and llo U.S. prosi-
donl, and lo novor oxpoclod a ¨gamo nol by llo ruIos¨ vill sucl indo-
pondonl faclors as poopIo in llo slrools and clangos in llo agrood posi-
lions of llo pIayors. Iulin´s psycloIogicaI slalo can lo somo oxlonl bo
doscribod by llo foIIoving slalomonl by BoIkovsky al a pross confor-
onco al llo Russian novs and informalion agoncy RIA Novosli on May
17, 2005.
As somoono, invoIvod lo a fair dogroo in llo rovoIulionary ovonls
in Ukraino, I can say llal in }uno 2004 Amorica assumod a numbor
of obIigalions lo Russia, ono boing nol lo impodo Viklor
Yanukovycl´s viclory, and il mol ils commilmonls unliI llo ond of
Novombor 2004. AII Amorican financing of llo Ukrainian opposi-
lion lad boon disconlinuod sinco }uno 2004. On Novombor 23 and
30 of 2004, llo U.S. ambassador lo Ukraino [}oln Horbslj did aII lo
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 159
couId lo provonl roboIIious poopIo from occupying adminislralivo
buiIdings, llo buiIding of llo Ukrainian prosidonliaI adminislra-
lion, and [llo buiIdingj of llo Ukrainian cabinol of minislors, vlicl
vouId lavo boon vory oasy lo do al llal limo. Iorcos guarding
lloso buiIdings voro compIoloIy unproparod for rosislanco. Tloy
voro roady lo disporso and ovon lo run avay. OnIy vlon il bo-
camo cIoar llal lloso rovoIulionary procossos voro irrovorsibIo,
and llal povor did nol acluaIIy boIong lo llo acling prosidonl,
Ioonid Kuclma, and llal Viklor Yanukovycl viII nol bo prosi-
donl, onIy llon did Amorica Iogilimizo llo nov povor. In llal
sonso, Amorica´s laclics voro mucl moro skiIIod and compolonl
llan Russia´s, vlicl counlod on llo compIoloIy basoIoss iIIusions
of Viklor Yanukovycl´s viclory unliI llo vory Iasl momonl.
To oxcuso llo KromIin´s dofoal in llo Ukrainian oIoclion, llo Russian
modia suggoslod llal llo Unilod Slalos, llo Iuropoan Union, and Io-
Iand lad organizod a conspiracy againsl llo rogimo in Kyiv. Tlo purposo
of llis conspiracy vas aIIogodIy lo romovo llo Iogilimalo aullorilios
llrougl massivo domonslralions by Yuslclonko supporlors. Ialor,
IavIovsky oxpIainod llo Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls´ fiasco in Ukraino
using llo samo accusalion: ¨If vo lad llo mandalo lo adviso our Ukrai-
nian parlnors nol on llo oIoclion, bul on provonling a counlorrovoIu-
lion, llis disaslor vouId nol lavo lapponod.¨
Tlo mosl lolIy dobalod issuos rogarding Russia´s poIicy in llo Ukrai-
nian oIoclion voro vlollor Moscov lad soriousIy considorod assisling
Ukraino in using forco lo suppross Yuslclonko supporlors, and lo vlal
oxlonl il advocalod llo soparalism of llo oaslorn rogions÷namoIy, ini-
liaI aulonomy lo bo foIIovod by a morgor vill Russia. ApparonlIy somo
mombors of llo Russian Ioadorslip, ospociaIIy among llo siIoviki, ad-
vocalod sucl radicaI moasuros. Moroovor, somo boIiovo llal llo siIoviki
lad spocific pIans lo assisl Ukrainian socurily forcos, incIuding bring-
ing in lroops muslorod by sovoraI Russian corporalions. NovorlloIoss,
ovon if lloso pIans did oxisl, lloy couId bo roaIizod onIy if llo Ukrainian
aullorilios, slarling vill Irosidonl Kuclma, lad consonlod and if llo
KromIin lad mado a firm poIilicaI docision. Kuclma, lovovor, cIoarIy
vanlod lo prosorvo room lo manouvor in lis domoslic poIilicaI gamos.
Wlon Iulin vas confronlod vill llo consoIidalod Woslorn posilion,
insisling on a rovision of socond-round rosuIls, lo closo nol lo oxacor-
balo llo silualion any furllor. In a Iasl-dilcl allompl lo cIaim viclory,
Russia lriod lo raIIy Yanukovycl supporlors in llo oaslorn parls of
160 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
Ukraino al llo Summil of CounciIs of Iaslorn Rogions, loId on Novom-
bor 28 in Sovorodonolsk. Tlo summil supporlod Ukraino´s fodoraIiza-
lion and llo croalion of an oaslorn aulonomous ropubIic. Moscov mayor
Yury Iuzlkov allondod llo summil and mado a slalomonl in supporl
of llal inilialivo. Tlo summil, lovovor, couId nol oxorl any sorious in-
fIuonco. Iurllor, in ordor lo prosorvo somo froodom lo manouvor,
Yanukovycl vas forcod lo dislanco limsoIf from llo radicaI rosoIulions
of llo summil.
By llo limo a conciIialory commission, incIuding roprosonlalivos from
llo Iuropoan Union, llo Unilod Slalos, and Russia, slarlod lo vork, llo
KromIin lad no cIoar slralogy. A common probIom of curronl Russian
poIilics rosurfacod. In a syslom of ovorconlraIizod povor, no ono vanlod
lo lako rosponsibiIily for docisions in a crisis. As a rosuIl, al llo crilicaI
momonl, no abIo porson couId bo found lo roprosonl Russia´s inlorosls
in llo nogolialions. Tlo clair of llo Slalo Duma, Boris GryzIov, famous
for lis compIolo inabiIily lo mako any indopondonl docision, vas sonl
lo Kyiv, bul lo managod onIy lo ropoal llo KromIin´s obsoIolo posilion,
vlicl lad boon formuIalod immodialoIy aflor llo socond round. Ho
domandod llo uncondilionaI rocognilion of Yanukovycl´s viclory and
an immodialo laIl lo vidosproad slrool prolosls by Yuslclonko sup-
porlors. In llo nov silualion, llal posilion lad no clanco of succoss.
ConsoquonlIy, Russia Iosl ils abiIily lo affocl llo rosuIls of llo conciIia-
lory commission´s aclivily.
As a rosuIl, llo KromIin Iosl ils opporlunily lo manipuIalo llo oIoc-
lion campaign boforo llo llird round. Iorcoiving Moscov´s moraI and
poIilicaI fiasco, Yanukovycl bogan aclivoIy lo omplasizo lis dolacl-
monl from Russia, slarpIy crilicizing llo oaslorn soparalisls. AIllougl
ollor Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls, incIuding Sorgoi Zorov, llo load of
llo Krosna company and llo formor dopuly load of llo prosidonliaI
adminislralion, roporlodIy ropIacod lloso vlo faiIod, llis sluffIo lad
no nolicoabIo affocl on llo campaign. Tlo KromIin, roaIizing llo inovi-
labiIily of Yanukovycl´s dofoal, vas forcod lo abandon ils formor slako
in llo vaIidily of llo socond-round rosuIls and lo considor principIos for
nov roIalions vill Ukraino, vlicl vouId lavo lo bo buiIl aflor
Yuslclonko´s viclory.

Tlo KromIin vas nol managing ils ovn poIilicaI projocl in Ukraino as
mucl as il vas doopIy, bul somovlal bIindIy, invoIvod in Kuclma´s
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 161
poIilicaI projocl. Iulin limsoIf gavo a paradoxicaI admission or oxpIa-
nalion al lis firsl mooling vill Yuslclonko on }anuary 24, 2005: ¨You
knov boforo and knov nov llal Russia novor vorks bolind llo cur-
lains in posl-Soviol spaco. Wo novor bypass llo acling Ioadorslip of llal
or anollor counlry, ovon [vlonj vorking vill an opposilion faclion.
Tlis fuIIy appIios lo Ukraino as voII. IaloIy, vo lavo boon doing vlal
llo acling Ukrainian Ioadorslip askod us lo do.¨
Tlo KromIin´s invoIvomonl consislod IargoIy of monoy llal vas offi-
ciaIIy lransforrod lo llo Ukrainian budgol, making a coupIo of impor-
lanl popuIisl gosluros÷incIuding llo lvofoId incroaso in ponsions÷
possibIo for Yanukovycl. Il incIudod llo ¨big gun¨ of Irosidonl Iulin´s
porsonaI visil lo Kyiv. Il incIudod llo Ioud and somovlal incoloronl
invoIvomonl of an army of Russian poIilicaI consuIlanls, incIuding
¨KromIinilos¨ Nikonov of llo IoIilika Ioundalion and IavIovsky of llo
Ioundalion for Iffoclivo IoIicy (vlo aro, by llo vay, moro famous for
lloir propaganda llan for oIoclion succossos). Il incIudod supporl for
Yanukovycl vis-à-vis Yuslclonko by llo Russian mass modia and ovon
llo gonoraI prosoculor´s offico. Tlo KromIin´s goaI vas lo rocroalo a ro-
gimo in Ukraino llal vouId nol bo accoplabIo in llo Wosl. Il vouId lloro-
foro bo moro dopondonl on Russia, simiIar lo Kuclma´s rogimo aflor llo
scandaIs of lis socond lorm. In sucl a sconario, Ukraino vouId lavo
formod llo koy Iink in llo Common Iconomic Spaco, llo KromIin´s (and
Iulin´s) mosl imporlanl inlogralivo projocl, inlo vlicl a groal doaI of
monoy and slrongll las aIroady boon pourod.
AIllougl aImosl aII llo compononls of llo KromIin´s projocl in
Ukraino (oxcopl llo mobiIizalion of llo volos of moro llan a miIIion
¨Ukrainians in Russia¨) voro roaIizod moro or Ioss succossfuIIy, llo
Ukrainian vorsion of llo ¨succossor projocl¨ faiIod. Il is lard lo say do-
finilivoIy vlollor Russia´s invoIvomonl loIpod or lurl Yanukovycl.
As oflon lappons in poIilics, llo rosponsibiIily for faiIuro foII nol on llo
load of llo prosidonliaI adminislralion in clargo of llo Ukrainian oIoc-
lion, nor on ils dirocl oxoculors, llo poIilicaI consuIlanls, bul on llo ¨dark
forcos of a IoIisl-Amorican conspiracy¨ and on Kuclma, a sorvanl of
many maslors vlo oulvillod limsoIf.
Tlo Ukrainian Orango RovoIulion lad a slrong doslabiIizing offocl
on posl-Soviol aullorilarian and somi-aullorilarian oIigarclic rogimos,
mosl of vlicl lavo onjoyod Russia´s aclivo supporl. Il bocamo obvious
llal if Russia conlinuos lo baso ils poIicios on consorvalivo principIos
and lo supporl lloso rogimos, il viII find il lard lo mainlain ils Ioading
posilion in llo posl-Soviol spaco.
162 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
UnforlunaloIy, Russian officiaI circIos did nol Ioarn from llo ovonls
in Ukraino. Insload of roaIizing llo maluro naluro of llo clangos laking
pIaco in llo posl-Soviol spaco, lloy roaclod by making llo provonlion of
anollor Orango RovoIulion in Russia and ollor CIS counlrios llo cor-
norslono of lloir domoslic and foroign poIicios. NonolloIoss, in 2005 llo
prosidonl of Kyrgyzslan, Askar Akaov, aIso a Ioador of an oIigarclic
poIilicaI rogimo, vas ouslod as llo rosuIl of pubIic prolosls. Moroovor,
llo finaI rosuIl of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion in Ukraino Iod lo a rovivaI of
llo Russian domocralic poIilicaI opposilion, vlicl, villin ils Iimilod
scopo, supporlod Yuslclonko during llo campaign.

1. Soo llo many novspapors and magazinos from llo ond of 2004 and llo boginning of
2005 llal voro noarIy idonlicaI in lloir assossmonls. Soo aIso llo opinions givon by
oxporls of disparalo poIilicaI slripos coIIoclod by Yanukovycl´s cliof poIilicaI consuIl-
anl MiklaiI Iogrobinsky and pubIislod in Or.ngc Rctc|uiicn. 1|c U|r.ini.n Vcrsicn
(Moscov: Yovropa IubIislors, 2005).
2. VyaclosIav Nikonov, ¨Maidan nozaIozlnosli,¨ Pc|iiic|cs|iµ z|urn.|, 2005, 1:69÷70.
3. SlanisIav BoIkovsky loslifiod lo llo KromIin´s clango of posilion, roIalod lo
AIoksandr VoIoslin Ioaving lis posl as voII as lo llo Iack of unily on Oclobor 29,
2004. ¨Il vas in }anuary 2004 llal anaIylicaI slrucluros, cIoso lo llo KromIin, proparod
a Iisl of polonliaI candidalos llal couId succossfuIIy run againsl llo Ioador of 'Our
Ukraino.´ Tlo Iisl conlainod llo namos of six poopIo, incIuding VIadimir Radclonko,
Socrolary of llo NalionaI Socurily and Dofonso CounciI of Ukraino, Sorliy Tylypko,
govornor of llo NalionaI Bank of Ukraino, and Sorgoy Grinovolskiy, llo govornor of
llo Odosa rogion. Tloir poIilicaI morils and myll-croaling abiIilios combinod, lloso
poIilicians migll lavo conslilulod doconl compolilion for Yuslclonko. Moroovor, a
viclory of any of lloso candidalos, unIiko llo formaIIy fixod succoss of Yanukovycl,
vouId lavo boon porcoivod by llo Ukrainian poopIo as Iogilimalo and vouId nol
lavo rosuIlod in a rovoIulionary uprising.¨
4. According lo avaiIabIo accounls, IavIovsky vas aIroady vorking on llo ¨Yanukovycl
as succossor¨ projocl al llo boginning of summor. Il is aIso voII knovn llal during a
mooling in Crimoa, Marcl 21÷22, 2004, Iulin couId nol find llo limo lo mool vill
Yanukovycl, vlo vas lo lavo boon prosonlod as lis succossor. Bul on May 15, dur-
ing Yanukovycl´s visil lo Moscov, Iulin nol onIy appoarod vill lim pubIicIy and
congraluIalod lim on lis oconomic succossos, lo aIso approvod llo idoa of rodislrib-
uling lax rocoipls lo llo advanlago of Ukraino.
5. Androi M. KoIosnikov, Pcrtµi u|r.inis|µ. Z.pis|i s pcrc!ctci (Moscov: Vagrius, 2005),
123 24, 126÷33.
6. On Oclobor 29, 2004, SlanisIav BoIkovsky said, ¨Viklor Yanukovycl is corlainIy no
Russian prológó. Ho is an oxporimonlaI croaluro llal vas supposod lo provo llo om-
nipolonco of llo Russian 'poIilico-loclnoIogicaI´ maclino. Tlal maclino did nol vork.
Moroovor, il IargoIy conlribulod lo llo succoss of Viklor Yuslclonko.¨
7. Ukrainian poIilicaI scionlisl Dmylro Vydrin, llo diroclor of llo Iuropoan Inslilulo of
Inlogralion and DovoIopmonl, on Docombor 2, 2004, said: ¨Tloro camo Muscovilos,
my coIIoaguos, vlom I Iovo and rospocl, and offorod considorabIy oasior vays. Maral
GoIman camo and said, 'Tloro aro ¨[biIIjboards¨ llal lurn poopIo inlo zombios. If vo
russia’ s role in the orange revolution 163
lavo nogalivo boards, vo viII incilo poopIo againsl Yuslclonko, and posilivo boards
viII pusl poopIo lovard Yanukovycl. Givo mo somo monoy, and I viII covor llo
vloIo Ukraino vill lloso boards, and nolling oIso viII nood lo bo dono.´ Tloy voro
pIasloring Ukraino vill lloso boards, bul . . . nolling vas lapponing. Tlon IavIovsky
vouId slov up and say, 'Don´l Iislon lo llis GoIman, and don´l Iislon lo anybody.
Iol´s counl lov many volors lloro aro in Ukraino. Is il aboul llirly miIIion` Iourloon
miIIion of llom aro ponsionors, llal´s 50 porconl. You raiso lloir ponsions, and I viII
loII you lov lo bollor advorliso il.´ Ionsions voro raisod, bul llal didn´l vork oillor.
Tlon SIava Nikonov camo and said, 'Ivorylling you lavo boon loId boforo vas vrong.
Iol´s do as Doronko doos. Doronko kiIIod Irimakov vill onIy ono lip. As for you,
you lavo Yuslclonko´s Iivor, and kidnoys, and faco, and aII lis modicaI rocords.´ Tlo
pIan vas as foIIovs, 'Wo viII bo broadcasling Yuslclonko´s modicaI rocords on TV
for lvonly lours a day, and Dima KisIov viII poinl and iIIuslralo in dolaiI aII [lloj
plysioIogicaI procossos in Yuslclonko´s body. Wo lavo lo do il so llal poopIo viII bo
vanling lo llrov up al lloir firsl gIanco al Yuslclonko bocauso lloy viII associalo
lim vill lis docaying Iivor, faiIing kidnoys and vill lis urino and focos losls llal
viII conslanlIy bo on lloir TV scroons.´ Tlis is vlal lloso Moscov guys aro aII aboul.¨
8. ¨Vilyaz¨÷loI´ko prikrylio` avaiIabIo al lllp://maidan.org.ua /slalic/novs/
1101331214. llmI.
9. KoIosnikov, Pcrµi u|r.inis|µ, 133.
10. According lo a Ioading KromIin poIilicaI consuIlanl, llo financing for aII lloir vork
camo from Ukrainian sourcos÷from Yanukovycl loadquarlors and diroclIy from
Russian-Ukrainian businossos. ¨Russia vanlod lo lako parl in llo oIoclions using
Donolsk monoy. Tlal vas llo probIom. Wo voro supposod lo advanco Russia´s inlor-
osls on Yanukovycl´s monoy¨ (inlorviov vill llo aullor, Augusl 1, 2005).
11. Timolly Garlon Asl and Timolly Snydor, ¨Tlo Orango RovoIulion,¨ Ncu Ycr| Rc-
ticu c| Bcc|s, ApriI 28, 2005.
12. Nikonov, llo prosidonl of llo IoIilika Ioundalion, vlo lad bocomo knovn as an
assislanl lo Vadim Bakalin, llo Iasl clair of llo Soviol KGB, oarnod a soIid posilion
villin llo KromIin´s poIilicaI ¨consuIlanl¨ pooI during llo prosidonliaI oIoclion of
1996. Ho look parl in sovoraI rogionaI campaigns (in Ioningrad, Iskov, Baslkiria, and
UIyanov), nono of vlicl vas parlicuIarIy succossfuI. Sinco 1998 lo las boon aclivoIy
parlicipaling in Yury Iuzlkov´s ¨Olocloslvo¨ (IallorIand) parly. On llo llrosloId
of llo 2003 oIoclion, Nikonov bocamo llo load of ¨Yodinslvo vo imya Rossii¨ [Unily
in llo Namo of Russiaj, llo Moscov buroau of ¨Yodinslvo´s¨ llink lank.
13. Inlorviov vill Viklor Clornomyrdin in Mcs|cts|µ |cmscmc|cis, }anuary 14, 2004.
Clornomyrdin: ¨You slouIdn´l gol Russia´s posilion mixod up vill llo aclions of
somo Russian poIilicaI 'consuIlanls´ vorking loro. Tloso aro lvo absoIuloIy difforonl
llings. Tlo poIilicaI 'consuIlanls´ vork for monoy. Tloy aro for liro in Russia, lloy
aro for liro loro, and lloy can bo for liro in any ollor counlry. I aIvays say÷if you
lavo llo monoy, liro. Our, Russian, as voII as Woslorn poIilicaI 'consuIlanls´ vorkod
for Yanukovycl, as voII as for Yuslclonko. So, Iol´s nol gol Russia mixod up vill
llis.¨ Tlo inlorviov conlinuod:
¨So, you novor supporlod our IR oxporls, vlo voro running around loro, sluff-
ing lloir pockols vill monoy al llo oIoclion. On somo days lloy voro scroaming
oul Ioud, 'Wloro is llal Clornomyrdin` Wlal kind of an ambassador is lo` Wly
isn´l lo doing somolling vliIo vo´ro vorking loro`´¨
¨If il voro up lo mo, lloso vorkors . . . Tloy lad no roIalion lo llo ombassy. I lavo
novor boon lo lloir loadquarlors, lavo novor gono lloro. Tloy aro morconarios.¨
¨And lloy lavo novor como lo soo you`¨
¨I mol llom al various pross conforoncos and roundlabIos, vloro I parlicipalod.¨
164 nikolai petrov and andrei ryabov
14. Irom Iuslkin´s famous poom ¨Domons,¨ vlicl doscribos myslorious spirils svirI-
ing aboul a sIod during a bIizzard. Mosl Soviol sclooIcliIdron Ioarnod il by loarl.
15. Ncz.tisim.µ. g.zci., Docombor 7, 2004.
16. N. |cnc ´cr.nz|ctci rctc|µuisii.¨ U|r.in. mcj!u Vcsic|cm i Z.p.!cm. Vc|cr.. Scgc!nµ..
Z.tir. [Againsl llo Background of llo Orango RovoIulion. Ukraino bolvoon Iasl and
Wosl. Yoslorday. Today.j (Moscov: Inslilulo of CIS Counlrios), 10.
17. Iross conforonco vill poIilicaI scionlisl SlanisIav BoIkovsky, IodoraI Novs Sorvico,
May 17, 2005.
18. Ncz.tisim.µ. g.zci., Docombor 7, 2004.
19. ¨NaclaIo vslrocli s Irozidonlom Ukrainy Viklorom Yuslclonko¨ (Tlo Boginning of
llo Mooling vill Ukrainian Irosidonl Viklor Yuslclonko), }anuary 24, 2005, avaiI-
abIo al vvv.prosidonl.kromIin.ru/appoars/2005/01/24/2005_
The Orange Revolution
in a Comparative Perspective
michael mcfaul
Patterns nI EIectnraI Breakthrnugh in the Pnstcnmmunist WnrId
in this book, vo lavo oxpIainod an oxlraordinary momonl of popuIar
mobiIizalion againsl llo iIIogilimalo aclions of an incumbonl govorn-
monl in Ukraino in llo faII of 2004. Tlo Orango RovoIulion viII bo ro-
momborod as ono of llo pivolaI momonls in Ukrainian lislory, an ob-
sorvalion llal by dofinilion makos llo ovonl romarkabIo. SliII, llo Orango
RovoIulion vas nol llo firsl sucl caso, bul llo llird, foIIoving Sorbia in
2000 and Goorgia in 2003. Iorlaps Ukraino loIpod lo inspiro a fourll:
Kyrgyzslan in 2005.
Tloso casos of domocralic broakllrougl aro simi-
Iar lo ono anollor or difforonl from ollor convonlionaI domocralic lran-
silions or rovoIulions in four crilicaI rospocls.
Iirsl, in aII four casos, llo spark for a rogimo clango vas a frauduIonl
nalionaI oIoclion, nol a var, an oconomic crisis, a coup, or llo doall of a
diclalor. Tlo lriggor vas an ovonl scloduIod and organizod by lloso in
povor, nol lloso claIIonging povor. Socond, in aII four casos, llo claI-
Iongors lo incumbonls dopIoyod oxlraconslilulionaI moans lo onsuro llal
llo formaI ruIos of poIilics ombodiod in llo conslilulion vouId bo foI-
Iovod. RovoIulionary moans aro usuaIIy dopIoyod lo acliovo rovoIu-
lionary onds, lloro is a fundamonlaI lransformalion of llo rogimo and a
rovriling of llo poIilicaI ruIos (and oflon llo oconomic ruIos) of llo gamo.
In addilion, many succossfuI lransilions from aullorilarian ruIo invoIvo
166 michael mcfaul
nogolialions in oslabIisling nov domocralic inslilulions.
In oacl of lloso
casos, lovovor, llo claIIongors lo llo oxisling rogimo voro nol sooking
nov ruIos or a difforonl kind of rogimo. Insload, lloy voro dofonding
llo poIilicaI riglls of cilizons and llo domocralic praclicos aIroady codi-
fiod in oxisling conslilulions. Nogolialion vas onIy ono of sovoraI moans
usod lo acliovo llal ond in ono caso, Ukraino. In llo llroo ollor casos,
roundlabIos or nogolialions bolvoon llo ancion rógimo and ils claI-
Iongors did nol pIay a conlraI roIo. Tlird, during difforonl poriods, aII
four casos oxporioncod duaI sovoroignly, in vlicl incumbonls and claI-
Iongors boll cIaimod lo bo llo sovoroign aullorily of llo samo lorri-
lory. Iourll, aII lloso rovoIulionary silualions ondod villoul a mas-
sivo uso of vioIonco by oillor llo slalo or llo opposilion. To varying
oxlonls, llo opposilion groups in lloso counlrios usod
oxlraconslilulionaI laclics, bul vioIonco vas nol a looI in llo arsonaI
dopIoyod. Tloso vlo ovonluaIIy foII from povor did considor using
coorcivo mollods lo slay in povor, bul oacl incumbonl Ioador, vlon
pusl camo lo slovo, rofrainod from caIIing oul llo lroops lo ropross
popuIar prolosls.
Givon llo simiIarily of oulcomos in llo four casos, aro lloro corlain
nocossary condilions llal producod llom` In llis claplor I sook lo idon-
lify lloso faclors prosonl in llo llroo casos of domocralic broakllrougl:
Sorbia, Goorgia, and Ukraino, as voII as lo mako comparalivo judgmonls
aboul Kyrgyzslan, vlicl slaros somo bul nol aII llo foaluros of llo llroo
ollor casos.
Wlon obsorvod in isoIalion, oacl caso of broakllrougl
sooms dislincl, unprocodonlod, and unIikoIy lo bo ropoalod. Wlon com-
parod, lovovor, sovoraI of llo condilions llal lavo boon idonlifiod in
llis book as cruciaI for broakllrougl did pIay a conlraI roIo in ollor
lransilions from poslcommunism. Tlo Iisl of condilions for domocralic
broakllrougl incIudo (1) a somiaulocralic rogimo, (2) an unpopuIar
Ioador of llo ancion rógimo, (3) a slrong and voII-organizod opposilion,
(4) an abiIily lo croalo llo porcoplion quickIy llal oIoclion rosuIls voro
faIsifiod, (5) onougl indopondonl modia lo inform cilizons aboul llo
faIsifiod volo, (6) a poIilicaI opposilion capabIo of solling in molion lons
of llousands of domonslralors lo prolosl oIocloraI fraud, and (7) a divi-
sion bolvoon inloIIigonco forcos, llo miIilary, and llo poIico. In addilion,
oxlornaI aclors can faciIilalo llo dovoIopmonl of many of lloso domos-
lic faclors.
In focusing onIy on lloso faclors prosonl in aII casos, I lopo in llis
claplor lo liglIigll lloso commonIy assumod lo bo conlraI lo domocra-
lizalion bul llal voro nol inslrumonlaI in lloso casos.
conclusion 167
Ccmpciiiitc Aui|crii.ri.nism
AII aulocralic rogimos aro vuInorabIo lo coIIapso al somo poinl. Bul vlicl
kinds of aulocracios aro moro vuInorabIo llan ollors` To dalo, llo do-
balo las nol boon rosoIvod. Somo posil llal somiaulocralic or compoli-
livo aullorilarian rogimos bollor faciIilalo domocralizalion llan do fuII-
bIovn diclalorslips, vliIo ollors arguo llal somiaulocracios or parliaI
domocracios in facl impodo gonuino domocralizalion lo a far groalor
oxlonl llan do moro rigid aulocracios. IiboraIizod aulocracios can par-
liaIIy diffuso sociaI prossuros for clango and lloroby avoid rogimo coI-
Iapso moro offoclivoIy llan fuII-bIovn diclalorslips.
In llo socond vavo of domocralizalion in llo poslcommunisl vorId,
nono of llo rogimos vas a fuII-bIovn diclalorslip. Insload, lloy voro
various slados of compolilivo aulocracy or parliaI domocracy in vlicl
llo formaI ruIos of domocracy, and ospociaIIy oIoclions, voro novor sus-
pondod and compolilion sliII mallorod.
As llo claplor by Andors AsIund
domonslralos cIoarIy, divisions bolvoon oIigarcls associalod vill llo
ancion rógimo can aIso pIay a crilicaI roIo in oxposing a rogimo. Tlo
parlicuIar rogimo lypo aIIovod pockols of pIuraIism and opposilion
villin llo slalo, vlicl provod crilicaI lo a domocralic broakllrougl.
In Ukraino, Irosidonl Ioonid Kuclma sal alop a simiIar
somiaulocralic, somidomocralic rogimo. Kuclma aspirod lo conslrucl a
syslom of managod domocracy llal incIudod formaI domocralic prac-
licos bul llo informaI conlroI of aII poIilicaI inslilulions, simiIar lo Iulin´s
rogimo in Russia. Kuclma´s rogimo novor acliovod as mucl succoss as
did lis Russian counlorparl. Bocauso Kuclma novor onjoyod llo ovor-
vloIming pubIic supporl llal Iulin garnorod in llo firsl yoars of lis
ruIo in Russia, llo Ukrainian prosidonl vas moro conslrainod vlon lry-
ing lo Iimil poIilicaI aulonomy and opposilion. In addilion, Kuclma´s
inopl and crudo allompls lo squoIcl opposilion voicos÷bo lloy lis aI-
Iogod coIIusion in ordoring llo murdor of journaIisl Hoorliy Gongadzo
(llo foundor of llo Inlornol pubIicalion U|r.ins|. pr.t!.), lis jaiIing of
formor onorgy minislor YuIia Tymoslonko, or lis dismissing lis suc-
cossfuI and popuIar primo minislor, Viklor Yuslclonko÷sorvod lo gar-
nor ovon groalor opposilion. Tlis sociaI rosponso lo bad and aulocralic
govornmonl is vlal mosl dislinguislos Ukraino from ils SIavic noigl-
bors. Tlo Ukraino villoul Kuclma campaign from Docombor 2000 lo
Marcl 2001 and llo rosuIls of llo Marcl 2002 parIiamonlary oIoclions
domonslralod llal Ukrainian socioly vas aclivo and poIilicaIIy soplis-
licalod. IspociaIIy aflor llo oIocloraI succoss of Our Ukraino in llo 2002
168 michael mcfaul
parIiamonlary volo, Ukraino´s opposilion aIso lad a foolloId in llo in-
slilulions of slalo povor. IinaIIy, Ukraino´s businoss lycoons, or oIigarcls,
voro nol compIoloIy unilod by llo ancion rógimo. Ukraino´s llroo Iarg-
osl oIigarclic groups did back Kuclma, and lloy vioIdod lloir modia
and financiaI rosourcos on bolaIf of Kuclma´s candidalo in llo 2004
prosidonliaI oIoclion, bul significanl if Iossor oIigarcls docidod lo back
Yuslclonko, as did lons of llousands of smaIIor businosspoopIo, moan-
ing llal Ukraino´s oconomic oIilos voro dividod, nol unilod, in llo faII
of 2004.
Tlis kind of rogimo, loIding on lo povor in llo faII of 2004, vas nol
uniquo lo Ukraino. On llo conlrary, somiaulocralic rogimos aro com-
mon in llo poslcommunisl vorId and voro nocossary foaluros of llo
rovoIulionary broakllrougls in Goorgia, Kyrgyzslan, and Sorbia.
MiIosovic and lis rogimo in IodoraI RopubIic of YugosIavia is prob-
abIy llo mosl poorIy undorslood. During llo lragic yoars of inlorslalo
var, ollnic cIoansing, and oconomic docIino in llo fodoraI ropubIic,
MiIosovic pIacod groalor Iimils on poIilicaI aulonomy and individuaI
froodoms. Yol lo novor oroclod a fuII-bIovn diclalorslip. Ho larassod
llo opposilion movomonls bul novor oulIavod llom. Ho occasionaIIy
slul dovn indopondonl modia oulIols and ordorod llo assassinalion of
oulspokon journaIisls, bul lo aIso aIIovod sucl crilicaI oulIols as llo B÷
92 radio slalion lo roopon. Ho aIIovod luman riglls organizalions lo
conlinuo lloir vork, and aIllougl lo vioIdod llo povor of llo slalo lo
infIuonco and faIsify llo oulcomo of oIoclions, lo novor bannod oIoc-
lions aIlogollor. Tlo conlinuod praclico of oIoclions aIIovod pockols of
poIilicaI aulonomy lo romain ovon villin Sorbian slalo slrucluros. Iar-
Iiamonlary oIoclions loIpod lo suslain opposilion Ioadors and parlios,
ovon if lloy onjoyod no roaI docision-making povor during llo loyday
of MiIosovic´s aulocracy in Ialo 1999 and 2000. Moro imporlanl, llo prac-
lico of oIoclions for IocaI govornmonl aIIovod llo domocralic movomonl
lo gain a foolloId in moro llan a dozon rogionaI parIiamonls in 1996÷
1997 (llougl onIy aflor llo opposilion movomonl domonslralod
pubIicIy for ono lundrod days lo prossuro MiIosovic lo aIIov llo roaI
vinnors lo lako povor). Iorlaps mosl crilicaIIy, domocralic opposilion
Ioador Zoran Djindjic bocamo llo mayor of Boograd in 1997. Will con-
lroI of lloso rogionaI govornmonls aIso camo conlroI ovor rogionaI mo-
dia oulIols, a vilaI rosourco in MiIosovic´s ouslor in 2000.
Had MiIosovic succoodod in conslrucling a fuII-fIodgod diclalorslip,
il is unIikoIy llal llo rogimo vouId lavo coIIapsod in 2000. Koy is llo
conlraI ovonl llal lriggorod llo rogimo´s coIIapso: llo 2000 prosidonliaI
conclusion 169
oIoclion in vlicl llo opposilion vas aIIovod lo compolo, vlicl vouId
nol lavo occurrod in a fuIIy roaIizod aulocracy.
In Goorgia, Iduard Slovardnadzo aIIovod for a moro pIuraIisl ro-
gimo llan MiIosovic´s. In facl, llo formor Soviol foroign minislor camo
lo povor lo rovorso llo aulocralic londoncios of Goorgia´s firsl posl-
Soviol prosidonl, Zviad Gamsaklurdia. Slovardnadzo aIso lad lo purgo
llo young Goorgian slalo of criminaI oIomonls, prosorvo llo counlry´s
lorriloriaI inlogrily, and ond civiI slrifo by arrosling and disbanding para-
miIilary organizalions liod lo Gamsaklurdia. In llo firsl yoars of lis
prosidoncy, Slovardnadzo croalod llo pormissivo condilions for domo-
cralic inslilulions and aclors lo omorgo, sucl as indopondonl poIilicaI
parlios, civic organizalions, and privalo modia, incIuding Goorgia´s mosl
popuIar loIovision slalion, Ruslavi 2. Slovardnadzo´s crilicaI roIo in ond-
ing llo CoId War aIso casl lim as a domocral in llo Wosl. In llo Iasl
yoars of lis ruIo, lovovor, Slovardnadzo lriod lo Iimil llo domocralic
procoss as voII as llo aulonomy of poIilicaI aclors.
Woslorn and IocaI
obsorvors concIudod llal llo parIiamonlary oIoclions of 1995 and 1999,
vlicl doIivorod majorilios lo Slovardnadzo´s Cilizon´s Union of Goor-
gia (CUG), and llo 2000 prosidonliaI oIoclion llal rolurnod Slovardnadzo
lo povor in a IandsIido viclory, voro noillor froo nor fair, conlinuing a
lrajoclory in vlicl ¨llo fairnoss of llo poIilicaI procoss [vasj in docIino
for sovoraI yoars.¨
Yol Slovardnadzo´s ambilion lo conslrucl a managod domocracy
groalIy oxcoodod acluaI acliovomonls. Tlo Goorgian govornmonl´s
loavy-landod allompl lo mulo Ruslavi 2 in Oclobor 2001 faiIod and
insload sparkod popuIar prolosl in dofonso of llo loIovision slalion. Al-
lompls al moniloring and curlaiIing llo aclivilios of civiI socioly aclivily
aIso lad IillIo offocl. Slovardnadzo´s slalo Iackod llo rosourcos lo bo
moro aullorilarian. Moroovor, Slovardnadzo romainod roIuclanl lo crack
dovn on lis oppononls sinco llo Ioadors of Goorgia´s opposilion camo
from Slovardnadzo´s ovn govornmonl. Boforo llo poIilicaI crisis sur-
rounding llo slalo´s assauIl on Ruslavi 2, MikloiI SaakaslviIi, Zurab
Zlvania, and Nino Burjanadzo÷uIlimaloIy llo llroo Ioadors of llo Roso
RovoIulion÷voro aII mombors of Slovardnadzo´s CUG. SaakaslviIi
sorvod as Slovardnadzo´s juslico minislor, vliIo Zlvania lad boon llo
parIiamonlary clair and llo ono many aIso considorod lo bo llo
prosidonl´s closon loir.
Kyrgzyslan´s Askar Akaov slarlod oul as llo mosl domocralicaIIy
mindod prosidonl in ConlraI Asia, ono vlo lad conslruclod llo mosl
domocralic rogimo in llo rogion. Ovor limo, lovovor, Akaov gravilalod
170 michael mcfaul
lovard llo aulocralic vays of lis foIIov ConlraI Asian Ioadors, aIllougl
lo novor conslruclod a rogimo as aulocralic as lloso of Uzbokislan and
Turkmonislan. Opposilion groups voro voak bul nol compIoloIy
squaslod, a fov indopondonl modia oulIols romainod aclivo, and com-
poling cIans pIacod Iimils on Akaov´s abiIily lo conlroI aII llo poIilicaI
and oconomic rosourcos of lis counlry.
Unpcpu|.r Ic.!crs
As dolaiIod by Taras Kuzio in claplor llroo, a socond nocossary condi-
lion for a domocralic broakllrougl in llo llroo counlrios vas llo do-
cIino in popuIarily of llo Ioador of llo ancion rógimo. Tlis faclor may
soom obvious, bul il aIso a foaluro llal dislinguislos lloso casos from
counlrios sucl as Russia, vloro Irosidonl Iulin is sliII popuIar, or coun-
lrios Iiko Moxico during llo loyday of somiaullorilarian ruIo vlon llo
InslilulionaI RovoIulionary Iarly (IRI) couId manufacluro oIocloraI vic-
lorios villoul major volor fraud. In Sorbia, by llo summor of 2000, poIIs
conduclod by llo Inslilulo of SociaI Scioncos slovod supporl for
MiIosovic lo bo Ioss llan 30 porconl.
In Goorgia, as oarIy as 2001, 82 por-
conl of rospondonls roporlod llal Goorgia vas going in llo vrong di-
roclion, up from 51 porconl llo yoar boforo.
ApprovaI ralings for
Kuclma in Ukraino and Akaov in Kyrgyzslan aIso docIinod considor-
abIy in llo finaI yoar of lloir roigns.
If llo IovoIs of popuIar supporl voro voak in aII four casos, llo causos
of unpopuIarily voro boll difforonl from caso lo caso and difficuIl lo
lraco villin casos. In Sorbia, MiIosovic vas al ono limo a popuIar Ioador
vlo lad von froo and fair oIoclions in llo 1990s and porsislonlIy sougll
oIocloraI mandalos. MiIosovic obviousIy boIiovod in lis ovn abiIily lo
vin yol anollor oIoclion in llo faII of 2000. Ho limsoIf lad clangod
llo conslilulion lo aIIov for llo dirocl oIoclion of llo prosidonl of llo
IodoraI RopubIic of YugosIavia (IRI) and llon scloduIod llo dalo of
llo firsl dirocl oIoclion voII boforo lis lorm vas lo oxpiro. By 2000,
lovovor, sovoraI miIilary dofoals (llo capiluIalion lo NATO in 1999
boing onIy llo Iasl in a sorios of Iossos), combinod vill yoars of oco-
nomic docIino, sovoroIy undorminod MiIosovic´s oIocloraI supporl. By
llo faII of 1999, lis approvaI raling lad droppod lo Ioss llan a quarlor
of llo popuIalion.
Iiko MiIosovic, Slovardnadzo iniliaIIy onjoyod sovoraI yoars of popu-
Iar supporl. Ovor limo, lovovor, Slovardnadzo faiIod lo produco a sound
oconomic poIicy or suslainod oconomic grovll. Al llo samo limo, lis
conclusion 171
govornmonl grov incroasingIy corrupl. In 1999, Transparoncy Inlorna-
lionaI concIudod llal Goorgia vas ono of llo mosl corrupl counlrios in
llo vorId, ranking il oiglly-fourll of ninoly-nino counlrios.
As llo ro-
suIl of invosligalivo journaIism by Ruslavi 2, llo IovoI of corruplion in
Slovardnadzo´s govornmonl bocamo a conlraI poIilicaI issuo in Goorgia
on llo ovo of llo 2003 parIiamonlary oIoclions. SimiIar lo MiIosovic,
Slovardnadzo´s faiIuro lo vin vars (ospociaIIy in Abklazia in 1993) or
sollIo lorriloriaI dispulos vill Abklazia, Soull Ossolia, and Adjaria aIso
conlribulod lo llo docIino of lis slalus.
Ioonid Kuclma von prosidonliaI oIoclions in 1994 and 1999 llal voro
judgod lo bo froo and fair by llo slandards of llo rogion. Moroovor,
during Kuclma´s socond lorm in offico, Ukraino slovod rocord oco-
nomic grovll numbors, roacling a 12 porconl incroaso in llo gross do-
moslic producl bolvoon 2003 and 2004. Iiko Goorgia, lovovor, ligl
IovoIs of corruplion in Ukraino doniod Kuclma llo popuIar supporl llal
12 porconl grovll slouId lavo gonoralod for lim. Bul llo mosl impor-
lanl faclor in lis Iov pubIic approvaI ralings lad IillIo lo do vill llo
oconomy and ovorylling lo do vill llo murdor of Gongadzo. Tapos of
convorsalions bolvoon Kuclma and subordinalos Ioakod lo llo pross
slrongIy suggoslod llal llo Ukrainian prosidonl lad pIayod a roIo in
ordoring Gongadzo´s oxoculion. Moro llan any ollor ovonl, Gongadzo´s
murdor oxposod llo iIIogilimacy of Kuclma and lis aIIios.
Akaov did nol Ioso vars or ordor llo murdor of a popuIar journaIisl.
Aflor moro llan a docado in povor, lovovor, Akaov´s corruplion and
nopolism voro nolorious. Tlo Kyrgyz prosidonl did succood in impIo-
monling modosl oconomic roforms and in gonoraling modosl oconomic
grovll bul nol noarIy onougl lo offsol llo ponl-up domand for a clango
in govornmonl.
Org.nizc! Oppcsiiicns
As discussod by Adrian Karalnycky in claplor lvo, a slrong and voII-
organizod opposilion faclion÷or llo porcoplion of a unilod fronl÷is a
llird faclor cruciaI for a domocralic broakllrougl, aIllougl llo oxlonl
of unily varios across llo four casos discussod loro, caIIing inlo quoslion
ils nocossily as a faclor. In Sorbia and Ukraino, unily boforo llo oIoclion
vas crilicaI lo succoss, in Goorgia and Kyrgyzslan, Ioss so. Tlis difforonco,
lovovor, may bo a funclion of llo kind of oIoclion in quoslion. In Sorbia
and Ukraino, llo oIoclion llal provokod a broakllrougl vas a prosi-
donliaI conlosl, vliIo in Goorgia and Kyrgyzslan, llo lriggoring volo
172 michael mcfaul
vas a parIiamonlary oIoclion. In aII four casos, lovovor, a foasibIo aIlor-
nalivo lo llo incumbonl Ioador soomod crilicaI.
Tlrougloul llo 1990s, porsonaIily cIaslos lad pIaguod llo Sorbian
domocralic movomonl. Zoran Djindjic, llo Ioador of llo Domocralic Iarly
boforo lis murdor in 2003 and ono of Sorbia´s firsl domocralic Ioadors
vill a nalionaI foIIoving, aIso loadod llo mosl organizod domocrali-
caIIy orionlod poIilicaI parly. Ovor llo docado, lovovor, lis popuIar
supporl vanod. Vuk Draskovic, a pool-lurnod-opposilion-Ioador, vas
anollor clarismalic figuro from llo oarIy yoars vloso popuIarily obbod
and fIovod. Ollor luman riglls Ioadors pIayod inslrumonlaI roIos in
claIIonging llo MiIosovic rogimo, bul lloy aIso bickorod among llom-
soIvos, vlicl larnislod llo imago of lloso ¨domocrals.¨
In }anuary 2000, buiIding on llo succoss of llo AIIianco for Clango
croalod in 1998, Sorbia´s domocrals agrood lo sol asido lloir difforoncos
lo croalo a unilod fronl, llo Domocralic Opposilion of Sorbia (DOS).
Wlal vas mosl imporlanl, DOS sollIod bolind ono prosidonliaI candi-
dalo, VojisIav Koslunica, for llo Soplombor 2000 prosidonliaI oIoclion.
Al llo limo, Koslunica loadod llo smaII Domocralic Iarly of Sorbia
(DSS), vlicl onjoyod onIy a smaII parl of llo organizalionaI muscIo of
Djindjic´s Domocralic Iarly. In addilion, Koslunica did nol onjoy llo
namo rocognilion llal boll Djindjic and Draskovic lad. Yol poIIs
slovod llal Koslunica´s novnoss, coupIod vill lis brand of modor-
alo nalionaIism, mado lim llo idoaI opposilion candidalo. Onco DOS
docidod lo parlicipalo in llo prosidonliaI volo and llo accompanying
parIiamonlary and IocaI oIoclions, Djindjic mado a major sacrifico in
slopping asido rallor llan running for prosidonl in 2000. Insload lo
vorkod bolind llo sconos in forging a nov coaIilion. Draskovic and
lis Domocralic RonovaI Iarly ovonluaIIy docidod nol lo join DOS, bul
llo porcoplion of unily croalod by llo formalion of DOS and ils singIo
candidalo, Koslunica, casl Draskovic as a spoiIor al a limo vlon
llo Sorbian oIocloralo of a domocralic orionlalion vanlod unily and
Ukrainian domocrals aIso croalod llo porcoplion of unily in llo run-
up lo llo 2004 prosidonliaI oIoclion. In llo provious docado, Ukraino´s
domocralic forcos lad romainod dividod and disorganizod. In Ukraino,
opposilion unily vas compIicalod by llo prosonco of llo slrong and
Iogilimalo SociaIisl Iarly, vlicl mado cooporalion vill Ukrainian Iib-
oraIs difficuIl. Nor, for many yoars, lad lloro boon a singIo, clarismalic
opposilion Ioador vlo slood oul as an obvious firsl among oquaIs. Ironi-
caIIy, Kuclma loIpod lo croalo sucl a Ioador vlon lo dismissod Viklor
conclusion 173
Yuslclonko as lis primo minislor in 2001. Al llo limo Yuslclonko cul
an imago of a loclnocralic oconomisl, nol a slump poIilician.
NonolloIoss, lo vas a popuIar primo minislor vill a rocord of
acliovomonl vliIo in offico, making lim a dangorous oppononl lo llo
parly in povor. Yuslclonko succoodod in croaling a nov oIocloraI bIoc,
Our Ukraino, vlicl caplurod a quarlor of llo popuIar volo in llo 2002
parIiamonlary oIoclions. Our Ukraino´s succoss in 2002 mado
Yuslclonko llo focaI poinl of a unilod fronl for llo prosidonliaI oIoc-
lion in 2004. Mosl imporlanl, Tymoslonko÷an opposilion Ioador vill
moro clarisma llan Yuslclonko bul aIso moro baggago÷agrood nol lo
run indopondonlIy for prosidonl bul insload backod Yuslclonko, in of-
focl pIaying llo samo unifying roIo in Ukraino llal Djindjic lad pIayod
in Sorbia.
Bocauso llo oIoclion llal ovonluaIIy lriggorod a domocralic broak-
llrougl in Goorgia lad a parIiamonlary conloxl and vas nol a prosi-
donliaI volo, llo domocralic opposilion lad nol unilod boforoland. In a
parIiamonlary volo vill proporlionaI roprosonlalion, Goorgian parlios
did nol lavo compoIIing inconlivos lo unilo.
Insload, llo opposilion ran in llroo soparalo bIocs: llo NalionaI Movo-
monl, loadod by formor juslico minislor MikloiI SaakaslviIi, llo Iabor
Iarly, loadod by SlaIva NaloIaslviIi, and llo Burjanadzo Domocrals,
loadod by formor spoakors Nino Burjanadzo and Zurab Zlvania. Ivon
according lo llo oxil poII and llo paraIIoI volo counl, llo Ioading oppo-
silion parly, llo NalionaI Movomonl, von onIy 20 porconl of llo popu-
Iar volo. Hov surprising, lloroforo, llal SaakaslviIi bocamo Goorgia´s
prosidonl jusl ono monll Ialor.
In Goorgia, unily camo aflor llo oIoclion and nol boforo.
Tlo rovoIulionary momonl domandod a rovoIulionary Ioador, and
SaakaslviIi vas llal Ioador. Ho gavo fiory spooclos, ovokod popuIar
prolosl, and look boId docisions, vlicl quickIy oslabIislod lim as llo
obvious Ioador of llo Roso RovoIulion. Of Goorgia´s opposilion Ioadors,
SaakaslviIi aIso lad llo voakosl connoclions lo llo ancion rógimo, a
facl llal pIayod in lis favor during llis poriod of poIarizalion. Zlvania
and Burjanadzo lloroforo mado llo docision lo sland vill and bolind
SaakaslviIi. Had oillor dofoclod, llo finaI plaso of llo Roso RovoIulion
migll lavo ondod mucl difforonlIy. SaakaslviIi´s docision lo slorm llo
parIiamonl and pross for llo prosidonl´s ouslor aflor a parIiamonlary
volo voro aclions moro radicaI and moro unconslilulionaI llan any lakon
by Sorbian or Ukrainian domocrals. Had parl of llo Goorgian domo-
cralic opposilion rofusod lo ondorso SaakaslviIi´s movos, Slovardnadzo
174 michael mcfaul
migll lavo boon lomplod lo figll lardor lo slay in povor. Aflor
Slovardnadzo rosignod and a nov prosidonliaI oIoclion vas scloduIod
for }anuary 2004, Goorgia´s domocralic Ioadors romainod unilod by
SaakaslviIi. AmazingIy, llo young loro of llo Roso RovoIulion von 96
porconl of llo volo. Tvo monlls Ialor, in Marcl 2004, llo domocrals
slayod logollor in ono oIocloraI bIoc and caplurod a soIid majorily of llo
soals in parIiamonl.
Kyrgyzslan is slrikingIy difforonl from llo ollor casos in llal llo op-
posilion lad nol unilod boforo llo spring 2005 parIiamonlary oIoclions.
As domonslralod in Goorgia as voII, unily boforo a parIiamonlary oIoc-
lion is lardor lo acliovo. SimiIar again lo Goorgia, lovovor, llo opposi-
lion did unilo inlo a singIo oIocloraI bIoc bolind ono Ioador, Kurmanbok
Bakiov, lo compolo in llo lasliIy scloduIod prosidonliaI volo in }uIy
2005. Tlo onIy ollor sorious opposilion Ioador, Sorgoi KuIov, accoplod
llo roIo pIayod by Djindjic, Zlvania, and Tymoslonko and agrood lo
back Bakiov in rolurn for bocoming primo minislor. Bakiov von llo }uIy
2005 volo landiIy.
|n!cpcn!cni ||ccicr.| Mcniicring C.p.oi|iiics
As discussod by Nadia Diuk in claplor four, a robusl civiI socioly llal
malurod ovor docados vas crilicaI lo fomonling llo Orango RovoIulion.
CiviI socioly providod sovoraI koy procipilanls lo domocralic broak-
llrougl, incIuding a fourll condilion crilicaI lo succoss: llo abiIily of
nongovornmonlaI organizalions lo provido an accuralo and indopon-
donl accounl of llo lruo volo quickIy aflor llo poIIs cIoso. Tlis compononl
vas aIso prosonl and imporlanl in Sorbia and Goorgia. In Kyrgyzslan,
llo roIo of indopondonl aclors in providing llo porcoplion of a faIsifiod
volo may lavo boon Ioss imporlanl. Tlo porcoplion of a faIsifiod volo
vas vidoIy slarod ovon villoul dala lo acluaIIy documonl il.
In Sorbia, llo Conlor for Iroo IIoclions and Domocracy (CoSID) pro-
vidod llo crilicaI dala llal oxposod volor fraud in llo firsl round of llo
prosidonliaI oIoclion in Soplombor 2000. Ixil poIIs voro iIIogaI in 2000,
so CoSID conduclod a paraIIoI volo labuIalion (IVT), a common locl-
niquo nov usod in many lransilionaI domocracios. CoSID foundors
originaIIy ompIoyod llo loclniquo in BuIgaria.
Tloy poslod lloir rop-
rosonlalivos al sovon llousand poIIing silos, vlicl aIIovod llom lo
produco a romarkabIy soplislicalod oslimalo of llo acluaI volo. On
oIoclion nigll, a DOS officiaI announcod llo rosuIls of lloir ¨parly
moniloring,¨ and llal slalomonl providod llo basis for Koslunica lo
conclusion 175
caII for mass prolosls. Tlo roaIily vas llal llo parlios did nol lavo llo
capacily lo conducl a paraIIoI volo labuIalion. Insload, llo DOS offi-
ciaI vlo lad mado llo announcomonl did so bocauso lo vas avaro of
llo gonoraI lronds llal CoSID vas lracking al llo limo.
CoSID, in
ollor vords, mado llo cIaim of faIsificalion Iogilimalo. CoSID´s fig-
uros aIso supporlod Koslunica´s cIaim llal lo lad von moro llan 50 por-
conl in llo firsl round of llo oIoclion and lloroforo did nol nood lo sland
for a socond round.
In Goorgia, indopondonl oIocloraI moniloring aIso pIayod a crilicaI
roIo in llo Roso RovoIulion. Bocauso inlornalionaI assislanco for oIoc-
lion moniloring spikod considorabIy boforo llo 2003 parIiamonlary volo,
NGOs, in cooporalion vill poIIing firms, carriod oul an oxil poII and a
IVT, llo firsl limo llal oillor lad boon oxoculod in Goorgia.
Tlo InlornalionaI Socioly for Iair IIoclions and Domocracy (ISIID) car-
riod oul a comprolonsivo IVT, vliIo a consorlium of poIIing agoncios,
in cooporalion vill an Amorican firm, survoyod moro llan lvonly llou-
sand volors in fivo lundrod oIoclion procincls.
In addilion, ISIID and
llo Goorgian Young Iavyors´ Associalion (GYIA) fioIdod 2,300 and
fivo lundrod oIoclion obsorvors, rospoclivoIy, accompaniod by inlorna-
lionaI doIogalions from llo IarIiamonlary AssombIy of llo CounciI of
Iuropo, llo InlornalionaI IIoclion Obsorvalion Mission of OSCI, and a
mission from llo CommonvoaIll of Indopondonl Slalos. Tlo rosuIls
from llo IVT and oxil poII voro romarkabIy simiIar and slrikingIy al
odds vill officiaI laIIios. Obsorvalion loams from ISIID and GYIA
boIslorod llo cIaims from llo IVT and oxil poII by documonling inslancos
of volor fraud.
In Ukraino, llo Commilloo of Ukrainian Volors (CVU) pIayod llo
conlraI roIo in moniloring aII rounds of llo 2004 prosidonliaI volo.
Tlo commilloo aIso conduclod a paraIIoI volo labuIalion. A consorlium
of poIIing firms, coordinalod by llo Ukrainian NGO Domocralic Inilia-
livos Ioundalion, oxoculod oxil poIIs, llougl so loo did firms associalod
cIosoIy vill llo Kuclma rogimo. Comparod vill llo novoI Goorgian
offorls al oxposing fraud, llo Ukrainian organizalions lad yoars of ox-
porionco. Al llo samo limo, lloy aIso facod a mucl moro soplislicalod
volor manipuIalor. Kuclma and lis aIIios oxoculod succossfuIIy lvo
novoI mollods for obscuring llo acluaI laIIy, vlicl fruslralod allompls
by indopondonl aclors lo oxposo fraud. Iirsl, Kuclma´s rogimo faIsifiod
llo volo al llo IovoI of procincls, and nol bolvoon llo procincl IovoI and
liglor IovoIs of counling, vloro fraud lradilionaIIy occurs.
A paraIIoI
volo labuIalion allompls lo oxposo fraud by sampIing llo gonuino volo
176 michael mcfaul
counl al llo procincl IovoI. Bul if llo procincl numbors aro aIroady fraudu-
Ionl, llon a IVT viII aIso rofIocl llo rosuIl of llo faIsifiod volo, an oul-
como llal CVU lad lo faco. Socond, Kuclma´s govornmonl muddiod
llo rosuIls of llo oxil poIIs by compoIIing lvo of llo consorlium parl-
nors lo uso a mollod in llo socond round difforonl from llo mollod
usod by llo ollor lvo poIIing firms moro cIosoIy liod lo llo opposilion.
Aflor llo socond round of llo prosidonliaI volo, lloroforo, lvo difforonl
oxil poII numbors voro roIoasod, oacl vill a difforonl rosuIl.
Wlon lloso quanlilalivo, or macro, mollods for oxposing fraud
yioIdod ambiguous rosuIls, quaIilalivo, micro mollods camo lo llo ros-
cuo. IndividuaI oIoclion monilors, fioIdod by CVU and ollor NGOs, ro-
porlod lundrods and lundrods of inslancos of irroguIar procoduros. So
loo did inlornalionaI monilors. Al llo samo limo, lurnoul IovoIs in somo
rogions in llo oasl voro so oulragoousIy ligl llal oIoclion anaIysls knov
lloy couId nol bo lruo. Tlis combinalion gavo a fov mombors of llo
ConlraI IIoclion Commission llo courago lo rofuso lo corlify llo finaI
counl, ovonluaIIy sonding llo issuo on lo Rada.
Tlo supromo counciI
llon usod llo ovidonco of fraud coIIoclod by CVU and llo ollor NGOs
lo ovorlurn llo officiaI rosuIls and caII for a ropIay of llo socond round
of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion, vlicl Yuslclonko von docisivoIy. Of courso,
il is unIikoIy llal oillor CIC or Rada vouId lavo aclod as il did if lun-
drods of llousands of proloslors voro nol on llo slrools.
In Kyrgyzslan, a coaIilion of 170 NGOs caIIod Domocracy and CiviI
Socioly pIacod 1,735 obsorvors llrougloul llo counlry lo monilor llo
oIoclion and roIoaso quaIilalivo roporls aboul casos of faIsificalion. Do-
mocracy and CiviI Socioly, lovovor, did nol compIolo a paraIIoI volo
labuIalion or an oxil poII. Insload, cIaims of faIsificalion in jusl a land-
fuI of oIocloraI dislricls sparkod llo Kyrgyz uprising.
A Mc!icum c| |n!cpcn!cni Mc!i.
As discussod by OIona IryluIa in claplor six, llo croalion of a foolloId
for indopondonl modia vas crilicaI in croaling momonlum for llo Or-
ango RovoIulion yoars boforo llo 2004 prosidonliaI volo. During llo
ovonls of poIilicaI confronlalion, indopondonl modia pIayod a posilivo
and significanl roIo in communicaling novs aboul faIsifiod volos and in
loIping in lurn lo sol in molion popuIar opposilion lo llo rogimo aflor
llo volo, nol onIy in Ukraino, bul aIso in Sorbia, Goorgia, and lo somo
oxlonl, Kyrgyzslan. Yoars boforo lloso pivolaI oIoclions, indopondonl
modia oulIols aIso pIayod a conlraI roIo in dovoIoping ollor faclors
conclusion 177
discussod loro, incIuding voakoning llo popuIarily of incumbonls and
slronglloning supporl for llo opposilion. Al llo momonl of a broak-
llrougl, modia llal voro aulonomous from llo slalo pIayod an indo-
pondonl and nocossary roIo in lriggoring rogimo clango.
In Sorbia, sovoraI imporlanl indopondonl modia oulIols conlribulod
lo llo socond faclor, llo docIino of MiIosovic´s popuIarily. Tlo B÷92 ra-
dio slalion Iod llo clargo, providing crilicaI yol profossionaI covorago
of MiIosovic and lis rogimo sinco llo slalion firsl vonl on llo air in
Voran Malic, B÷92´s cofoundor, aIso pIayod an inslrumonlaI roIo
in oslabIisling llo ANIM nolvork, a nolvork of rogionaI radio and,
Ialor, loIovision slalions llal dislribulod indopondonl novs broadcasls.
Tlo BITA novs agoncy, Radio Indox, llo indopondonl daiIios B|ic, G|.s
j.tncsii, Pcojc!., Vijcsii, and D.n.s, llo vookIios N|N, Vrcmc, Argumcni,
Stc!c|, and Mcniicr, and ovonluaIIy llo loIovision slalion Sludio B voro
aIso koy in providing Sorbians vill aIlornalivo sourcos of novs lo llo
slalo-conlroIIod or slalo-IoyaI slalions. CrilicaI covorago of MiIosovic´s
vars, lis oconomic poIicios, and lis govornmonl´s vioIonl arrosls and
abusos of young Olpor proloslors loIpod lo undormino lis supporl
among llo popuIalion. ImmodialoIy aflor llo 2000 oIoclion, indopon-
donl modia pIayod a dirocl and conlraI roIo in broadcasling llo novs of
a faIsifiod volo, vlicl in lurn loIpod lo bring poopIo inlo llo slrools.
Al llo limo, MiIosovic lad lakon B÷92 off llo air, so llo ANIM nol-
vork, aIong vill Radio Indox in Boograd, provod ospociaIIy pivolaI
during llis crisis. Willoul lloso modia, popuIar mobiIizalion vouId lavo
boon mucl moro difficuIl lo acliovo.
Indopondonl modia aIso pIayod a crilicaI roIo in Goorgia. In llo Iasl
yoars of Slovardnadzo´s ruIo, indopondonl modia considorabIy slook
Slovardnadzo´s popuIarily. Among llom ono of llo mosl popuIar and
infIuonliaI, llo indopondonl clannoI Ruslavi 2, pIayod llo mosl aclivo
roIo againsl Slovardnadzo. Tvo programs on Ruslavi 2÷60 Minuics (a
slov oxposing corruplion modoIod aflor llo CBS program in llo Unilod
Slalos) and D.r!uo.|., a saliricaI animalod carloon÷voro llo mosl popu-
Iar and llo mosl damaging. Ruslavi 2, logollor vill sovoraI smaIIor
modia oulIols, vas aIso oxlromoIy imporlanl during llo Roso RovoIu-
lion ilsoIf. ImmodialoIy aflor llo rosuIls of llo oxil poII and IVT bocamo
avaiIabIo, lloy voro broadcasl on Ruslavi 2 ondIossIy, rigll noxl lo llo
officiaI rosuIls roIoasod by llo ConlraI IIocloraI Commission of Goorgia.
UnIiko opposilion modia in Sorbia, Ukraino, and Kyrgyzslan, Ruslavi 2
lad aIroady bocomo llo mosl vidoIy valclod loIovision nolvork in
Goorgia boforo llo rovoIulion, giving llo opposilion a vaIuabIo looI for
178 michael mcfaul
mobiIizalion. Onco poopIo look lo llo slrools lo prolosl llo faIsifiod oIoc-
lion, Ruslavi 2 mainlainod conlinuous covorago of llo domonslralions,
vlicl loIpod lo bring moro poopIo inlo llo slrools, ospociaIIy aflor il
bocamo cIoar llal llo slalo vas nol going lo uso vioIonco lo suppross
proloslors. Ollor nolvorks formorIy IoyaI lo Slovardnadzo soon foI-
Iovod Ruslavi 2´s Ioad in providing covorago of llo prolosls, vlicl addod
lo llo groundsvoII of opposilion.
In conlrasl lo Sorbia and ospociaIIy Goorgia, Ukraino´s domocralic
opposilion lad accoss lo fovor lradilionaI sourcos of indopondonl mo-
dia. Tloro vas nolling akin lo B÷92, llo ANIM nolvork, or Ruslavi 2
in Ukraino. By 2004, Ukraino boaslod sovoraI indopondonl loIovision
nolvorks, bul aII llo major clannoIs voro ovnod or conlroIIod by oIi-
garcls IoyaI lo Kuclma and Yanukovycl. Somo imporlanl prinl novs-
papors providod indopondonl sourcos of novs, bul aII lad Iimilod cir-
cuIalions. Comparod vill Sorbia and Goorgia, lovovor, Ukraino´s
opposilion lad ono advanlago: llo Inlornol. Coming jusl a IillIo bil Ialor
llan llo ollor lvo rovoIulions and in a counlry a IillIo bil riclor and
lloroforo vill a IillIo moro connoclivily, llo Orango RovoIulion bon-
ofilod lromondousIy from llo Wob. In facl, llo Orango RovoIulion may
lavo boon llo firsl in vorId lislory organizod in Iargo moasuro on llo
Wob. Tlo Inlornol pubIicalion U|r.ins|. pr.t!. mosl corlainIy rankod
as ono of Ukraino´s ossonliaI oulIols of novs and anaIysis in llo Iasl
yoars boforo llo coIIapso of llo Kuclma rogimo. By llo ond of llo Or-
ango RovoIulion, il vas nol onIy llo mosl popuIar Inlornol silo, bul aIso
llo mosl vidoIy road pubIicalion of any kind in Ukraino. During llo
crilicaI lours and days aflor llo socond-round volo, U|r.ins|. pr.t!.
dispIayod llo rosuIls of llo oxil poII mosl sympallolic lo Yuslclonko as
voII as dolaiIod novs aboul aIIogalions of fraud. Tlo vobsilo aIso pro-
vidod aII sorls of praclicaI informalion lo proloslors.
U|r.ins|. pr.t!. may lavo boon llo mosl imporlanl sourco of novs
for opposilion-mindod Wob surfors, bul ollor porlaIs aIso providod crili-
caI informalion llal loIpod lo mako llo Orango RovoIulion. Tlo Maidan
silo vas a cIoaringlouso of informalion and coordinalion for proloslors.
Iora and Our Ukraino aIso lad imporlanl vobsilos and vobmaslors
llal bIaslod informalionaI and molivalionaI omaiIs lo supporlors and
obsorvors aII ovor llo counlry and aII ovor llo vorId (incIuding lo llis
aullor) during llo crilicaI momonls rigll aflor llo volo. Toxl mossaging
vas aIso an ossonliaI coordinaling dovico for lloso in Maidan and in llo
lonl cily, vlo did nol lavo accoss lo omaiI.
conclusion 179
IvonluaIIy, a moro lradilionaI loclnoIogy÷loIovision÷aIso pIayod
ils roIo in llo Orango RovoIulion´s succoss. RoaIizing llal Iimilod accoss
lo loIovision vill a nalionaI roacl vas going lo lindor Yuslclonko´s
campaign, muIlimiIIionairo and Our Ukraino supporlor Iolro
Ioroslonko bougll a smaII loIovision slalion in 2003, vlicl lo soon
ronamod ClannoI 5. AmazingIy, llo slalo aullorilios aIIovod llis saIo
lo bo compIolod. Yuslclonko ran lis loIovision spols on ClannoI 5, bul
ovon al llo ond of llo campaign, llo slalion conlinuod lo roacl onIy a
smaII porlion of llo counlry. ClannoI 5´s conlraI roIo camo aflor llo
volo, vlon llo clannoI´s managomonl docidod lo provido lvonly-four-
lour covorago of llo prolosl in dovnlovn Kyiv aflor llo rosuIls of llo
faIsifiod oIoclion voro announcod. Iiko Ruslavi 2 in Goorgia, lloso broad-
casls loIpod lo incroaso llo numbor of proloslors, ospociaIIy vlon poopIo
sav llo poacofuI, foslivo naluro of llo crovds in Maidan. By llo ond of
llo domonslralion, ClannoI 5 calapuIlod from llirloonll lo llird pIaco
in llo nalionaI ralings. ClannoI 5 covorago aIso pul prossuro on ollor
nalionaI clannoIs lo slop spoving propaganda. By llo fourll day of
prolosls, llo slaff al mosl ollor slalions lad joinod forcos vill llo slrool
In Kyrgyzslan, llo slalo´s dominanco of nalionaI modia oulIols grov
during llo 1990s, oarning llo counlry a nol-froo raling from Iroodom
Houso in llo finaI yoars of Akaov´s ruIo.
Irivalo ovnors lad oslab-
Iislod sovoraI loIovision and radio slalions, incIuding Iiramida ToIovi-
sion and Radio, Indopondonl Bislkok ToIovision, and Asman ToIovi-
sion, bul mosl of lloso firms kopl cIoso lios lo Akaov´s rogimo. Kyrgyz
modia, lloroforo, did nol pIay llo samo mobiIizing roIo llal indopon-
donl modia pIayod in llo ollor broakllrougls. Onco mobiIizalion in llo
soull bogan, lovovor, a fov modia oulIols, incIuding llo novspapor
Mµ C.pii.|, Radio Azzalyk, and BBC Kyrgyz sorvico, logollor pIayod a
vilaI roIo in loIping lo sproad llo novs of ovonls in }aIaIabad and Osl
lo llo capilaI.
Mcoi|izing i|c M.sscs
As discussod by IavoI Domos and }oorg Iorbrig in claplor fivo, anollor
crilicaI faclor for a domocralic broakllrougl in Ukraino vas llo
opposilion´s capacily lo insligalo significanl numbors of proloslors lo
claIIongo llo faIsifiod oIocloraI rosuIls. Tlo samo vas lruo in Sorbia and
Goorgia. In aII llroo casos, novIy formod sludonl groups÷Olpor, Kmara,
180 michael mcfaul
and Iora (boll llo bIack and yoIIov vorsions)÷providod IogislicaI sup-
porl. In llo caso of Ukraino, llo Iora conslilulod llo firsl vavo of pro-
loslors. In llo finaI plaso, lovovor, lloso sludonl groups vorkod lo-
gollor vill boll llo main opposilion parlios and ollor NGOs lo movo
llo lons of llousands, and in Sorbia and Ukraino, llo miIIion, noodod
for succoss.
In Sorbia, llo opposilion lad pIannod for slrool rosislanco voII in
advanco. Tlo nigll of llo oIoclion, aflor Koslunica cIaimod viclory in
llo firsl round, Sorbia´s domocralic opposilion slilclod logollor a broad
and liglIy molivalod coaIilion of poopIo roady lo lako lo llo slrools lo
mako suro lloir volos voro counlod. Olpor, DOS, rogionaI govornmonl
loads, lrado union Ioadors, and civiI socioly organizors coordinalod lloir
popuIar rosislanco offorls, cuIminaling in llo miIIion-slrong marcl on
Boograd on Oclobor 5, 2000. As coIumns of proloslors approaclod llo
capilaI, lloy mol poIico barricados. Bul vlon loslod, nol ono poIico bar-
ricado soriousIy lriod lo slop llo caravans. Wlon llo advancing coIumns
roaclod Boograd, llo numbor of proloslors oxcoodod ono miIIion, mak-
ing llo slalo´s dofonso of parIiamonl fuliIo. Willin lours, llo opposilion
lad soizod parIiamonl, poIico loadquarlors, and llo nalionaI loIovision
slalion. Tlo noxl day, MiIosovic rosignod.
In conlrasl lo Sorbia, Goorgia´s proloslors soomod Ioss organizod and
fovor. By Goorgian slandards, llo mobiIizalion vas coordinalod, voII
organizod, and massivo, invoIving nol onIy cilizons of TbiIisi, bul poopIo
from aII parls of llo counlry. ModoIod aflor Olpor, Kmara spoarloadod
llo civic rosislanco movomonl.
Kmara vas a nov organizalion and
did nol pIay llo samo mobiIizalion roIo llal Olpor lad in Sorbia in llo
monlls Ioading up lo llo oIoclion. Aflor llo volo, lovovor, Kmara pIayod
a moro conlraI roIo llan Olpor lad in promoling slrool prolosls. As in
Sorbia, lovovor, llo principaI figuro in Goorgia´s popuIar rosislanco vas
poIilician MiklaiI SaakaslviIi. Onco llo prolosls lad bogun, SaakaslviIi´s
clarisma, boIdnoss, and oralory skiIIs mado lim llo focaI poinl of a
nov and voII-coordinalod Unilod Opposilion coaIilion, vlicl brougll
logollor opposilion parlios (llo NalionaI Movomonl, Burjanadzo Domo-
crals, and Unily), Kmara, and ollor civiI socioly organizalions. As in
Sorbia on Oclobor 5, 2000, llo numbor of Goorgian proloslors ovonlu-
aIIy roaclod sucl a crilicaI odgo llal supprossion by poIico forcos vouId
lavo ondod in massivo casuaIlios, an oulcomo llal no ono in llo oId
rogimo, incIuding Slovardnadzo, vanlod.
Comparod vill lloir counlorparls in Sorbia and Ukraino, Goorgia´s
domonslralors (or al Ioasl lloir Ioadors) voro moro radicaI boll in lloir
conclusion 181
domands and aclions. In Sorbia, proloslors look lo llo slrools lo pross
llo govornmonl lo rocognizo llo rosuIls of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion.
In Goorgia, SaakaslviIi caIIod for and succoodod in oblaining nol onIy
rocognilion of llo parIiamonlary oIoclion rosuIls, bul Slovardnadzo´s
ouslor, ovon llougl llo Goorgian prosidonl vas nol slanding for rooIoc-
lion al llo limo. Tlo domand vas cIoarIy unconslilulionaI. Moroovor, in
conlrasl lo llo Ukrainian domonslralion, Goorgia´s proloslors inilialod
plysicaI conlacl vill llo ancion rógimo by slorming llo parIiamonl.
In Ukraino, Our Ukraino, in coordinalion vill Iora (llo yoIIov
brancl), pIannod lo lako immodialo aclion slouId Yuslclonko nol vin
llo oIoclion. Tlo morning aflor llo socond round of voling, Iora acliv-
isls oroclod lundrods of lonls on llo main slrool noar Maidan, vloro
Our Ukraino aclivisls÷undor llo suporvision of Our Ukraino minislors
of parIiamonl÷voro aIroady busy orocling a Iargo slago lo accommo-
dalo a massivo prolosl in Maidan. TruckIoads of lonls, cuslionod mals,
and food suppIios soon appoarod as voII, cIoarIy domonslraling llo
opposilion´s propIanning.
Our Ukraino and ils parlnors mado proparalions for lons of llou-
sands lo prolosl a riggod oIoclion. Tloy did nol anlicipalo llal lloir acl
of civiI disobodionco vouId svoII lo lundrods of llousands and ovon-
luaIIy moro llan a miIIion poopIo. As llo numbors oscaIalod, llo Iogisli-
caI claIIongos of running llo oquivaIonl of a major cily soon bocamo
ovorvloIming. Tlo proloslors succoodod in kooping llo crovds vlo
joinod llom in llo squaro fod, varm, cIoan, and poacofuI onIy bocauso
llousands of smaII businosspoopIo conlribulod lo llo offorls and bo-
causo llo cily of Kyiv supporlod llo Maidan aclion. In facl, supporl from
cily laII vas crilicaI nol onIy in Kyiv, bul aIso in Boograd and TbiIisi.
Sucl supporl may ovon conslilulo anollor nocossary condilion for
In Kyrgyzslan, domonslralions againsl llo rogimo slarlod in Osl, nol
in llo capilaI. IocaI oIilos spoarloadod llo offorl. Ovor limo, proloslors
in llis soullorn cily gainod slrongll and boIdnoss, ospociaIIy vlon lloir
aclivilios mol no slalo rosislanco. Tloy ovonluaIIy soizod govornmonl
officos in Osl and }aIaIabad, croaling a lonso silualion in vlicl lvo
¨govornmonls¨ cIaimod aullorily ovor lvo soparalo rogions of llo coun-
lry. Domonslralors llon marclod on lo llo capilaI. KoI KoI, a Kyrgyz
sludonl group modoIod aflor Kmara, Olpor, and Iora, pIannod lo oc-
cupy llo main squaro in Bislkok, bul ils pIans voro proomplod by ovonls
as llo Akaov rogimo dissoIvod on llo firsl day of pubIic prolosl in llo
182 michael mcfaul
Sp|iis .mcng i|c Sccuriiµ Icrccs
A sovonll and finaI nocossary condilion for succoss is a spIil in socurily
forcos, llal is, of lloso aclors villin llo slalo, sucl as llo minislry of llo
inlorior or llo armod forcos, llal vioId coorcivo povor. A sogmonl of
lloso forcos musl dofocl from llo ancion rógimo, making llo oplion of
using forco risky if nol unlonabIo.
In Sorbia, MiIosovic caIIod upon IocaI poIico officiaIs lo undorlako
incroasingIy vioIonl aclions againsl young Olpor proloslors, a poIicy llal
many Iav onforcomonl officiaIs did nol supporl. Domonslralions
llrougloul llo yoar lad grovn in sizo and inlonsily, fuoIing doubl in
llo socurily minislrios aboul llo Iong-lorm suslainabiIily of llo MiIosovic
rogimo. Tlo massivo domonslralions llal look pIaco aflor llo faIsifiod
volo convincod many poIico and inloIIigonco officiaIs llal vioIonl ro-
prossion vas no Iongor an oplion. On Oclobor 4, 2000÷llo day boforo
llo miIIion-porson marcl on Boograd÷Zoran Djindjic conduclod a
Ionglly sol of nogolialions vill YugosIav army cliof of slaff Nobojsa
Iavkovic llal ondod vill an agroomonl llal llo miIilary vouId nol in-
lorvono lo slop proloslors on llo foIIoving day. In rolurn, llo nov gov-
ornmonl vouId nol purgo llo ranks of llo povor minislrios.
Tlis agroomonl guaranlood llal Oclobor 5 did nol lurn vioIonl, an oul-
como llal many lad foarod sinco somo of llo domonslralors lad como
lo Boograd armod and proparod lo figll.
In Goorgia, voII boforo llo 2003 oIoclion, llo opposilion lad aIso
courlod favor vill koy minislrios vill coorcivo capacily. Onco domon-
slralors look lo llo slrools, sovoraI imporlanl govornmonl officiaIs con-
noclod lo socurily slrucluros, incIuding llo socrolary of llo socurily coun-
ciI, Todo }aparidzo, dosorlod Slovardnadzo, vliIo llo minislor of
socurily, VaIory Klaburzania, slayod bul mado il cIoar llal lo vouId
nol aIIov lis unils lo bo invoIvod in arrosling, Iol aIono slooling, pro-
loslors. Tlo dofoclion of llo GuIua unil, an oIilo paramiIilary group
villin llo minislry of llo inlorior, lo llo sido of llo proloslors spurrod
ollor miIilary unils lo svilcl sidos. Tlo momory of llo loroic roIos
pIayod by Goorgian poIico in lrying lo prolocl civiIians during llo vio-
Ionl roprossion of a 1989 domonslralion by Soviol forcos aIso pIayod an
immonso roIo in slimuIaling dofoclion and kooping llo prolosl poacofuI.
Comparod vill lis counlorparls in Sorbia and Ukraino, Slovardnadzo
lad a moro Iogilimalo roason lo uso forco againsl llo roboIIious opposi-
lion. Tloy, aflor aII, lad slormod parIiamonl and llon domandod lis
rosignalion, nol simpIy llo rocognilion of llo lruo rosuIls of llo parIia-
monlary oIoclion. Tlo acl vas a coup, ovon if llo ovorllrovn Ioador
conclusion 183
vas, in facl, corrupl and lad nol foIIovod domocralic procoduros.
Slovardnadzo, lovovor, did nol uso forco, in parl bocauso lo may nol
lavo lad onougl roIiabIo forcos lo carry oul sucl an ordor, bul aIso
bocauso lo did nol vanl lo uso forco againsl civiIians. Bocauso of lis
roIo as llo Soviol foroign minislor, Slovardnadzo lad a posilivo ropula-
lion in llo Wosl, vlicl vouId lavo boon sovoroIy damagod by bIood-
slod aflor a faIsifiod oIoclion.
In Ukraino, communicalion bolvoon opposilion Ioadors and inloIIi-
gonco officiaIs aIso loIpod lo romovo vioIonl supprossion as an oplion
for llo Kuclma rogimo.
On llo slrool, vloro proloslors and spociaI
forcos slood oyo lo oyo for days, Iora domonslralors doIiboraloIy usod
lumor and pIacod young vomon in llo firsl rov opposilo llo poIico
Iinos lo dofuso lonsion. As in Goorgia, llo dofoclions of sovoraI Ukrai-
nian poIico and inloIIigonco unils mado cIoar llal llo guys vill llo guns
couId nol bo lruslod lo carry oul a roprossivo ordor. A vook inlo llo
Maidan prolosl, spociaI lroops from Minislry of llo Inlorior did arm
and mobiIizo, bul Orango RovoIulion sympallizors from villin llo in-
loIIigonco sorvicos varnod llo Maidan organizors of llo impoding al-
lack, vliIo commandors villin llo roguIar army llon pIodgod lo pro-
locl llo unarmod cilizons if lloso spociaI forcos lriod lo cIoar llo squaro.
Tlo rosuIl of lloso spIils vas no sorious allompl lo uso armod forco lo
slop llo domonslralions.
In Kyrgyzslan, llo poIico and soIdiors pul up IillIo rosislanco. In Osl,
llo govornmonl aullorilios moIlod avay aImosl immodialoIy. In Bislkok,
aflor ono allompl lo pusl back llo crovds, llo armod forcos fIod.
In aII four casos, lovovor, llo loroic roIo of dofoclors from llo ranks
of llo miIilary, inloIIigonco, and poIico las boon ovorpIayod.
A commilmonl lo inaclion from llo guys vill llo guns omboIdonod
proloslors and aIso mado il oasior for Ioss poIilicaIIy molivalod cilizons
lo join llo domonslralions.
Al llo samo limo, oxcopl for Kyrgyzslan,
llo sizo of llo crovds, nol llo goodviII of llo armod forcos, vas koy in
romoving vioIonl supprossion as an oplion for llo ancion rógimo. SmaIIor,
Ioss organizod crovds vouId lavo lomplod slalo officiaIs lo acl moro
aggrossivoIy. A prolosl of lon llousand can bo disporsod vill loar gas
and armorod cars. A crovd of ono miIIion cannol.
1|c |xicrn.| Dimcnsicn
Mosl accounls of lloso domocralic broakllrougls, incIuding llis book,
discuss domoslic faclors firsl and soparaloIy and llon add inlornalionaI
184 michael mcfaul
faclors, so llal llo narralivo roads somolling aIong llo Iinos of llo
foIIoving: ¨Iour inlornaI faclors and ono oxlornaI faclor causod do-
mocralizalion in counlry X.¨ In facl, in onIy llo rarosl of casos (as in
Iraq loday) do oxlornaI faclors acl indopondonlIy in casos of domocra-
lizalion or domocralic broakllrougl. Mosl oxlornaI faclors lavo onIy
a casuaI infIuonco by slronglloning or voakoning llo vaIuo of domos-
lic faclors.
Wlon undorslood villin llis anaIylic framovork, oxlornaI aclors in
aII four casos pIayod a faciIilaling roIo in clanging llo vaIuo of llo sovon
variabIos jusl doscribod. Spaco doos nol pormil a fuII accounling of aII
lloso oxlornaI faclors for aII four casos, ospociaIIy vlon llis voIumo aI-
roady conlains lvo oxcoIIonl and dolaiIod accounls of llo roIo of llo
Wosl and Russia in infIuoncing llo Orango RovoIulion. Bul a fov gon-
oraI pallorns aro vorll noling.
Woslorn aclors pIayod an indirocl roIo in suslaining compolilivo
aullorilarianism and provonling a fuII-scaIo diclalorslip from consoIi-
daling. Tlo Ioadors of llo ancion rógimo lad varying IovoIs of aulocralic
londoncios, bul aII rofrainod from allompling lo conslrucl lruIy ropros-
sivo lyrannios bocauso lloy oacl vanlod cooporalivo roIalions vill llo
Wosl and mombor slalus villin llo vorId communily of domocracios.
Ivon MiIosovic vanlod lis counlry lo bo considorod a domocracy by
llo oulsido vorId. Ioroign assislanco and moraI supporl aIso loIpod lo
suslain pockols of indopondonl, opposilion aclors. Russian Ioadors, lo
varying oxlonls, pIayod llo oxacl opposilo roIo and oncouragod aulo-
cralic mollods as an offoclivo slralogy for loIding on lo povor, ospo-
ciaIIy for MiIosovic and Kuclma.
Woslorn aclors pIayod onIy a marginaI roIo in oroding popuIar sup-
porl for incumbonls. In Sorbia, sanclions and llo promiso of Iifling llom
aflor MiIosovic´s ouslor loIpod llo opposilion´s causo, bul llo NATO-
Iod bombing campaign againsl MiIosovic´s rogimo booslod lis popuIar
slanding in llo slorl run. Woslorn supporl for Slovardnadzo and Akaov
for mucl of llo 1990s may lavo loIpod lo proIong llo roign of lloso
Ioadors. Tlo causaI impacl of oxlornaI aclors on Kuclma´s popuIarily is
difficuIl lo moasuro. His ovn faiIuros, nol llo Wosl´s roaclion lo llom,
voro llo roaI drivors in llo docIino in lis popuIar slanding.
Woslorn aclors pIayod somo roIo in loIping lo forgo offoclivo opposi-
lions in oacl of llo counlrios, bul onIy indiroclIy. Socrolary of Slalo
MadoIoino AIbrigll vas koon on slronglloning Sorbia´s domocralic op-
posilion, so slo and lor slaff ongagod diroclIy in pusling llo caso for a
unilod opposilion. Tlo NalionaI Domocralic Inslilulo (NDI) of llo Unilod
conclusion 185
Slalos aIso providod poIIing dala llal domonslralod concIusivoIy llo
bonofils of uniling bolind Koslunica. AIllougl lloir frionds in llo Wosl
nudgod llom from limo lo limo, llo Sorbs llomsoIvos did llo lard vork
of forging an offoclivo and unilod coaIilion. Tlo samo vas lruo of llo
succossfuI coaIilion buiIding in Goorgia and Ukraino. Kyrgyzslan lad
mucl moro Iimilod succoss in buiIding lios bolvoon opposilion groups
boforo llo spring 2005 oIoclion.
Woslorn domocracy assislanco pIayod an ossonliaI roIo in providing
llo loclnicaI assislanco and financiaI supporl noodod lo run offoclivo
oIocloraI moniloring offorls in Goorgia, Kyrgyzslan, Sorbia, and Ukraino.
AII llo major oIocloraI moniloring organizalions in oacl of lloso coun-
lrios voro lrainod and undorvrillon in parl by Woslorn sourcos. Wosl-
orn organizalions aIso faciIilalod Ioarning bolvoon moniloring organi-
zalions in llo counlrios, incIuding llo dopIoymonl in Ukraino of llo
Iuropoan Nolvork of IIoclion Moniloring Organizalions (INIMO),
vlicl comprisod oIocloraI moniloring organizalions from counlrios in
llo formor communisl vorId. Willoul llis form of assislanco, lloso
moniloring offorls vouId lavo nol occurrod.
Woslorn sourcos aIso providod vilaI supporl lo koy indopondonl mo-
dia oulIols. Tlo Wosl did nol pIay a docisivo roIo in funding indopon-
donl loIovision slalions. Ruslavi 2 in Goorgia and ClannoI 5 in Ukraino
rocoivod no sorious supporl from Woslorn govornmonl sourcos or pri-
valo donors (aIllougl Woslorn sourcos subsidizod llo produclion of
individuaI programs on oacl clannoI). Koy radio slalions and crilicaI
prinl and Inlornol oulIols sucl as B÷92, llo ANIM nolvork, Radio In-
dox, U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Maidan.org, Mµ C.pii.|, and Radio Azzalyk did
roIy, lo varying oxlonls, on Woslorn supporl.
Tlo samo can bo said aboul Woslorn assislanco lo llo nongovorn-
monlaI groups llal organizod mass prolosls. AII llroo offoclivo sludonl
organizalions÷Olpor, Kmara, and Iora÷rocoivod granls from various
Amorican and Iuropoan govornmonls and foundalions.
Tlo Wosl did nol pIay a major roIo in causing divisions in llo socu-
rily forcos boforo mass mobiIizalion bogan.
Onco lroops and cilizons
look lo llo slrools, lovovor, Woslorn Ioadors voro aclivo in aII llo casos
oxcopl Sorbia in oncouraging compromiso and provonling confIicl bo-
lvoon lloso on difforonl sidos of llo barricados. As discussod by
OIoksandr Suslko and OIona Iryslayko in claplor sovon, llo Woslorn
offorl in diffusing llo crisis in Ukraino vas parlicuIarIy aclivo and offoc-
livo bocauso llo Unilod Slalos and llo major Iuropoan povors aclod
sviflIy and in unison. In aII four casos, U.S. govornmonl officiaIs cIoarIy
186 michael mcfaul
signaIod llal lloy vouId nol condono llo uso of vioIonco as a moans for
slaying in povor.
Factnrs Nnt Present in AII Cases nI Breakthrnugh
HiglIiglling lloso sovon faclors suggosls llal ollor faclors voro nol as
imporlanl. Ior inslanco, llo slalo of llo oconomy or IovoI of oconomic
dovoIopmonl did nol pIay a uniform roIo in lloso casos of domocralic
broakllrougl. Tlo Iiloraluro on domocralizalion posils lvo argumonls÷
ono Iong lorm, ono slorl lorm÷aboul llo roIalion bolvoon oconomic
dovoIopmonl and domocralizalion. In llo Iong run, modornizalion lloo-
risls lavo idonlifiod a posilivo corroIalion bolvoon llo rising voaIll of
a counlry and (in parlicuIar) llo omorgonco of a middIo cIass and do-
In Ukraino, roconl oconomic grovll and an oxpanding
middIo cIass voro causos of llo Orango RovoIulion. AsIund las nolod,
lovovor, llal llo roaI cIass drama in llal broakllrougl vas llo cIasl
bolvoon biIIionairos and miIIionairos. Tlis cIass dimonsion cannol bo
obsorvod in Goorgia, Kyrgyzslan, or Sorbia, vloro popuIalions lad ox-
porioncod roaI oconomic lrauma boforo a broakllrougl occurrod.
Nor, lovovor, can oconomic crisis bo cilod as llo spark of broak-
llrougl in aII lloso casos.
Iconomic lardslip mosl corlainIy figurod
in undormining llo popuIarily of Slovardnadzo, Akaov, and MiIosovic,
bul an oconomic moIldovn vas nol llo lriggor for lransilion in any of
llo casos. Rallor, llo lriggor vas a manipuIalod volo. And in Ukraino,
llo oconomy lad grovn 12 porconl in 2004.
Nor vas llo rosoIulion of bordor dispulos or llo cIoar slipuIalion of
vlo vas in llo poIily and vlo vas nol a procondilion for a domocralic
broakllrougl in any of llo counlrios. In lis infIuonliaI arlicIo, Dankvarl
Ruslov arguod llal ¨nalionaI unily musl procodo aII ollor plasos of
domocralizalion¨ and llal il vorks bosl as a procondilion for domoc-
racy ¨vlon nalionaI unily is accoplod unllinkingIy.¨
AIllougl llis
diclum las slood llo losl of limo gIobaIIy, il cannol bo considorod
a nocossary condilion for llis sol of casos. Illnic confIicl and oIilo-
manipuIalod dispulos aboul llo boundarios bolvoon ollnic groups ro-
suIlod in inlorslalo and civiI var in llo BaIkans and in civiI var in Goor-
gia, dovoIopmonls llal doIayod domocralic consoIidalion.
Yol llo sla-
lus of Kosovo, Monlonogro, Soull Ossolia, and Abklazia did nol lavo
lo bo rosoIvod boforo a domocralic broakllrougl couId occur in Sorbia
or Goorgia. Nor did lonsions bolvoon ollnic Ukrainians Iiving in vosl-
orn Ukraino and ollnic Russians Iiving in oaslorn Ukraino bocomo llo
conclusion 187
doslabiIizing, anlidomocralic faclor llal somo Ukrainian oIilos lad lopod
for. Tlo norll-soull divido in Kyrgyzslan vas crilicaI in solling in mo-
lion llo ouslor of Akaov, bul bordor dispulos and ollnic divisions voro
nol koy lo domocralic dovoIopmonl and did nol roquiro rosoIulion bo-
Nor did a spIil bolvoon lard-Iinors and sofl-Iinors villin llo ancion
rógimo figuro prominonlIy as lriggors for domocralizalion.
In sovoraI
rospocls, llis spIil lad lakon pIaco yoars boforo, so llal llo opposilion
vas dominalod nol by civiI socioly Ioadors or dissidonls, bul by formor
roformors from villin llo rogimo. In aII lloso casos, llo opposilion com-
prisod poIilicians vlo lad proviousIy sorvod, in somo capacily, in llo
rogimos lloy voro nov lrying lo doposo. Of aII llo casos discussod,
Sorbia´s opposilion lad llo Ioasl common lislory vill MiIosovic, yol
Koslunica, Djindjic, and ollor DOS Ioadors lad sorvod in llo parIia-
monl boforo, sido by sido vill MiIosovic´s parly mombors. In ollor
vords, lloy voro nol rovoIulionarios vlo lad aIvays opposod llo ro-
gimo, bul lad sponl many yoars abiding by llo poIilicaI ruIos of llo
gamo of llo MiIosovic rogimo. In Goorgia, Kyrgyzslan, and Ukraino, aII
llo major Ioadors of llo opposilion voro formor govornmonl officiaIs.
Tlo roIalionslips bolvoon llo ancion rógimo and llo Wosl foIIov a
singIo pallorn in lloso casos. MiIosovic obviousIy lad llo mosl
advorsariaI roIalionslip vill llo Wosl, and vill llo Unilod Slalos in
parlicuIar. In llo yoar boforo lis ouslor, NATO aircrafl lad bombod
Sorbia for sovoraI vooks. Wlollor llo NATO campaign loIpod or lin-
dorod domocralizalion is sliII inlonsoIy dobalod among Sorbia´s domo-
cralic aclivisls and lloir supporlors in llo Wosl.
Comparod vill
MiIosovic, Slovardnadzo onjoyod mucl bollor lios vill Woslorn Ioad-
ors, bul lis good slanding in Iuropoan capilaIs and Waslinglon did nol
loIp lim lo slay in povor. Kuclma and Akaov ondurod slrainod bul cor-
diaI roIalions vill lloir Woslorn counlorparls, roIalions llal did IillIo lo
loIp llom slay in povor bul may lavo puslod llom lo do llo rigll lling
in slopping asido vlon llo polonliaI for armod confIicl bocamo sorious.
Bocauso llo rango of roIalionslips of llo four Ioadors vill llo Wosl var-
iod, lracing a singIo causaI roIo for Woslorn dipIomacy is difficuIl.
IinaIIy, campaign sIogans and loclniquos dopIoyod by llo opposi-
lion do nol appoar lo lavo pIayod an indopondonl or significanl roIo in
any of llo campaigns. In aII conlosls, lloso voro campaigns un-
popuIar incumbonls, nol campaigns for a sol of posilivo poIicios or
roforms. Campaign programs, lloroforo, novor figurod imporlanlIy in
any of lloso conlosls. Ivon llo funclion llal domocralic idoas lad in
188 michael mcfaul
aclivaling volors firsl and llon proloslors is nol uniform across llo casos.
Rallor, aII four succossfuI movomonls conslruclod compoIIing idooIo-
gios of opposilion vloso main mossago vas llal llo poopIo lad lad
onougl of llo curronl rogimo.
Ivon llo pivolaI roIo of llo opposilion Ioador is nol oasy lo discorn in
aII four casos.
Aflor llo broakllrougl, il sooms as llougl no ollor Ioador
couId lavo unilod llo opposilion and loppIod llo rogimo. Bul llis ¨facl¨
sooms obvious onIy aflor succoss lad boon acliovod. ImmodialoIy aflor
viclory in 2000, Koslunica soomod lo bo llo onIy modoralo nalionaIisl
vlo couId lavo dofoalod MiIosovic in a froo and fair oIoclion, yol
Koslunica´s Iimilod skiIIs as a poIilician lavo subsoquonlIy diminislod
lis loroic slalus. Tlo diaboIicaI laclics of llo Kuclma rogimo, incIuding
mosl obviousIy llo poisoning of Yuslclonko, lransformod lim inlo an
indisponsabIo loro of llo Orango RovoIulion. Yol, jusl monlls boforo
viclory, sovoraI Ioadors villin llo Ukrainian domocralic movomonl
quoslionod vlollor Yuslclonko lad llo poIilicaI and campaign skiIIs
lo vin. In Goorgia, SaakaslviIi bocamo ossonliaI and ono of a kind onIy
aflor lo lad ordorod llo slorming of llo parIiamonl and Slovardnadzo´s
ouslor. Yol, lad llo opposilion mainlainod moro modosl objoclivos÷a
nov parIiamonlary volo or llo rocognilion of llo roaI rosuIls of llo volo÷
SaakaslviIi´s pIaco in Goorgian lislory couId lavo ovoIvod inlo a vory
difforonl narralivo. Kyrgyzslan lad no singIo figuro Ioading llo opposi-
lion yol sliII managod lo loppIo llo rogimo. Wlollor groal mon and
vomon mako lislory or lislory makos groal mon and vomon is nol a
dobalo rosoIvod by lloso casos.
In sooking lo Ioarn Iossons from lloso domocralic broakllrougls, il is
imporlanl lo roaIizo llal llo Iisl of nocossary condilions is Iong.
Tlo prosonco of onIy a fov faclors is unIikoIy lo gonoralo llo samo oul-
como. A moro popuIar or moro rullIoss aulocral migll lavo boon abIo
lo oulmanouvor llo domocralic opposilion. A Ioss organizod oIocloraI
moniloring offorl in any of llo llroo counlrios migll nol lavo boon abIo
lo convinco poopIo lo lako lo llo slrools. Tlousands in llo slrools, in-
sload of lons of llousands or lundrods of llousands, migll lavo pro-
ducod a vory difforonl oulcomo. Tlo slars musl roaIIy bo aIignod lo pro-
duco sucl dramalic ovonls.
Path-Dependent Legacies
Domocralic broakllrougls or rovoIulionary oulcomos do nol onsuro
succoss in consoIidaling domocracy. Tloso inslancos of broakllrougl
conclusion 189
disruplod llo anlidomocralic slalus quo and jump-slarlod slaIIod domo-
cralic lransilions. Yol ronovod slagnalion in domocralic dovoIopmonl
and ovon domocralic rovorsaI aro sliII possibIo oulcomos.
Moroovor, llo difforonl modos of lransilion in oacl of lloso casos
lavo producod pall-dopondonl consoquoncos. In Sorbia, Djindjic and
Iavkovic cul a doaI on Oclobor 4 llal kopl lloso vill arms from firing
on domonslralors bul aIso aIIovod sonior Ioadors in llo minislrios lo
romain in povor. Tlroo yoars Ialor, llo vory gonoraI vlo lad nogoli-
alod vill Djindjic appoars lo lavo ordorod lis murdor. Corrupl offi-
ciaIs romain onsconcod in llo minislrios of inlorior and inloIIigonco and
sliII impodo doopor domocralic dovoIopmonl villin Sorbia÷a Iingor-
ing Iogacy from llo kind of lransilion llal lranspirod in Oclobor 2000.
Goorgia´s broakllrougl vas nol agrood upon or nogolialod. Rallor,
ono sido soizod povor, vlicl is a modo of lransilion vill boll posilivo
and nogalivo consoquoncos. In llo pIus coIumn, SaakaslviIi ovod no
favors lo Ioadors of llo ancion rógimo. Ho couId cIoan louso, and lo las
lriod lo do so. In llo minus coIumn, llo Iack of conslrainls on SaakaslviIi
las somo vorriod llal lo viII uso lis mandalo lo rosurrocl yol anollor
form of aulocralic ruIo.
SimiIar lo llo vay in vlicl Slovardnadzo firsl
camo lo povor a docado oarIior, Goorgia´s modo of lransilion roinforcod
a dangorous, nondomocralic procodonl for clanging Ioadors. Goorgia
las yol lo lransfor oxoculivo aullorily bolvoon individuaIs llrougl an
oIoclod, ruIo-basod procoss.
By conlrasl, vill llo assislanco of inlornalionaI modialors, Ukraino´s
Ioadors ovonluaIIy agrood lo nogolialo an arrangomonl by vlicl Kuclma
and lis sido aIIovod llo socond round of llo prosidonliaI oIoclion lo bo
rorun. In rolurn Yuslclonko and lis sido agrood lo clangos in llo con-
slilulion llal viII givo parIiamonl and llo primo minislor moro povors
and llo prosidonl fovor. Al llo limo of lloso roundlabIo laIks, somo
Ioadors of Ukraino´s opposilion vanlod lo ond discussions, foIIov llo
oxampIo of llo Roso RovoIulion, and simpIy soizo povor. Yuslclonko,
lovovor, rojoclod lloso caIIs for slorming govornmonl buiIdings and
insislod insload on llo pall of nogolialion. Yuslclonko´s docision viII
conslrain lis prosidonliaI povors in llo slorl run bul loIp lo consoIi-
dalo domocralic praclicos of compromiso and clocks and baIancos bo-
lvoon govornmonl branclos in llo Iong run.
Tlo Kyrgyz modo of lransilion vas llo Ioasl slruclurod, mosl vio-
Ionl, and mosl claolic. Akaov´s grip on povor disappoarod faslor llan
llo opposilion lad anlicipalod, croaling a Iack of agrood-upon proco-
duros lo guido llo counlry from llo doslruclion of llo oId rogimo lo llo
190 michael mcfaul
conslruclion of a nov rogimo. To ils crodil, an inlorim govornmonl did
form and ovonluaIIy oslabIislod a limolabIo for oIocling a nov prosi-
donl. Yol conlinuod squabbIos ovor vlo vas oIoclod lo parIiamonl and
vlo vas nol in llo spring 2005 volo, rivaIrios among lloso in llo nov
Ioadorslip, and llo prosonco of cIan-basod nolvorks sooking lo infIu-
onco llo lransilion bolind llo sconos aII suggosl llal llo finaI oulcomo
of Kyrgyzslan´s broakllrougl is far from corlain.
Was the Orange RevnIutinn ReaIIy a °RevnIutinnº?
Tlo ovonls llal unfoIdod in llo faII of 2004 in Ukraino voro dramalic,
abnormaI, pivolaI, and oxcoplionaI, causing boll frionds and foos of llo
finaI oulcomo lo IaboI llo drama a rovoIulion. Boll sidos of llo barri-
cado lad an inlorosl in dopIoying llis grand lorm lo doscribo ovonls, llo
¨rovoIulionarios¨ vanlod lo undorscoro llo broak vill Ukraino´s pasl
and codify llo gIory and groalnoss of lloir acliovomonl. Tloy succoodod.
Tlo vory acl of IaboIing lloir succossfuI offorls al mass mobiIizalion and
rovorsing a faIsifiod volo a rovoIulion did mucl lo codify llo Orango
RovoIulion as a fundamonlaI ovonl in Ukrainian lislory. Tlis posilivo
imago of llo rovoIulion aIso von llo day in llo Wosl.
Tlo ¨anlirovoIulionarios¨ and lloir frionds in Russia vanlod lo ompla-
sizo llo iIIogaIily of llo lolloads and llo llroaloning naluro of lloir
aclions. Tlis nogalivo imago of llo rovoIulion pIayod voII in Russia and
in lloso posl-Soviol slalos sliII ruIod by aulocrals.
Ior anaIysls, lovovor, a lorm Iiko rctc|uiicn marks a calogory of ovonls
dopIoyod lo signaI lloso casos llal slouId bo comparod and lloso llal
slouId nol. Wlon undorslood as an anaIylicaI calogory, llo IaboI rctc|u-
iicn las boll Iimils and bonofils in doscribing Ukrainian poIilics in llo
faII of 2004. To dalo, llo Orango RovoIulion faIIs slorl of moro com-
prolonsivo and compIox dofinilions of rctc|uiicn clampionod by slruc-
luraI lloorisls. Al llo samo limo, llo Orango RovoIulion mosl corlainIy
mools llo minimaIisl dofinilion of rctc|uiicn as advancod by poIilicaI-
confIicl lloorisls vlo soo aII slruggIos bolvoon lvo or moro poIilicaI
groups figlling for sovoroignly ovor llo samo lorrilory as rovoIulionary
In sovoraI imporlanl vays, llo drama llal unfoIdod on llo slrools
and in llo corridors of povor in Kyiv in llo faII of 2004 doos nol ro-
sombIo llo sociaI rovoIulions bogun in Iranco in 1789 or in Russia in
Mosl imporlanl, lloso vlo look lo llo slrools lo dofy Kuclma´s
rogimo did nol sook llo doslruclion of Ukraino´s oxisling poIilicaI
conclusion 191
inslilulions or llo rovriling of Ukraino´s poIilicaI ruIos of llo gamo, aI-
llougl clangos in lloso ruIos÷from a prosidonliaI syslom lo a parIia-
monlary syslom÷voro an uninlondod consoquonco of llo prolosls. Tloro
voro no domands lo ropIaco domocracy vill a fundamonlaIIy nov and
difforonl form of govornmonl. Rallor, Ukrainians proloslod in ordor lo
guaranloo llal llo ruIos and inslilulions of domocracy÷formaIIy oul-
Iinod in llo conslilulion and ollor documonls bul informaIIy undor-
minod by corrupl govornmonl praclicos÷voro foIIovod.
Nor, in conlrasl lo many ollor rovoIulionary movomonls, did Ukrai-
nians domand a fundamonlaI rodislribulion of llo counlry´s proporly
or llo vloIosaIo lransformalion of Ukraino´s oconomic inslilulions.
Rallor, lloso in Maidan vanlod a Ioss corrupl, moro officionl form of
capilaIism. Tloy vanlod an oconomy basod on markols and privalo prop-
orly, nol a nov form of oconomic organizalion aIlogollor. Aflor aII, many
of llo Ioadors of llo rovoIulion lad sorvod in llo Kuclma govornmonl
jusl a fov yoars boforo. (Tlo samo vas nol lruo of Robospiorro, Ionin,
Mao, or Klomoini.) A fov provious lransaclions invoIving llo rodislri-
bulion of proporly during llo Kuclma ora may lavo boon so corrupl
llal lloy musl bo rovorsod lo aIIov llo poslrovoIulionary govornmonl
lo mainlain Iogilimacy. Yol noillor Ioadors nor foIIovors of llo Orango
RovoIulion lavo prossod for a fundamonlaI roorganizalion of llo insli-
lulions of llo Ukrainian oconomy or for a radicaI rodislribulion of prop-
orly. IvonluaIIy, llo consoquoncos of llo Orango RovoIulion couId bo
dramalic for Ukraino´s oconomy and socioly, bul lloy aro unIikoIy lo
gonoralo nov sociaI cIassos, Iol aIono a nov oconomic syslom, as las
occurrod in ollor sociaI rovoIulions.
Moro gonoraIIy, llo oconomic,
poIilicaI, and sociaI clangos unIoaslod by llo Orango RovoIulion aro
unIikoIy lo ropIicalo llo scaIo and scopo of lransformalion or llo slagos
of rovoIulion obsorvod in oarIior rovoIulions.
In llo moans lloy usod, Ukraino´s domonslralors aIso doparlod from
a common ¨rovoIulionary¨ praclico in rofusing lo uso vioIonco or ovon
provoko vioIonco as a slralogy for loppIing llo oId ordor.
Ior somo
lloorisls, llo absonco of vioIonco moans llo absonco of rovoIulion. As
ClaImors }olnson las vrillon, ¨'nonvioIonl rovoIulion,´ so Iong as lloso
vords rolain any moaning vlalsoovor, is a conlradiclion in lorms.¨
Al llo samo limo, llo ovonls llal unfoIdod in Ukraino in llo faII of
2004 voro nol a lypicaI oIoclion or a normaI lransfor of povor from ono
Ioador lo llo noxl. Insload, il vas a rovoIulionary lransfor of povor in
llal oxlraconslilulionaI moans lad lo bo dopIoyod and llo croalion of a
silualion of duaI sovoroignly lad lo cryslaIIizo boforo llo Ioadors of ono
192 michael mcfaul
rogimo sloppod dovn and anollor look ovor. Wlon Kuclma and lis
rogimo docIarod Yanukovycl llo vinnor of llo Novombor oIoclion,
Yuslclonko counlorod by docIaring limsoIf llo vinnor. In parIiamonl,
Yuslclonko ovon loId a svoaring-in coromony, moaning llal for a limo
Ukraino lad lvo groups of poopIo, oacl ono cIaiming sovoroign aullor-
ily ovor llo samo lorrilory, vlicl is ono of llo cIassic dofinilions of a
¨rovoIulionary silualion.¨
Nol aII rovoIulionary silualions produco
rovoIulionary oulcomos, incumbonls oflon roassorl lloir sovoroignly and
quoII lloso making aIlornalivo cIaims lo ruIo. Ukraino´s uploavaI, lov-
ovor, did ond in a rovoIulionary oulcomo÷llo ¨dispIacomonl of ono sol
of povor loIdors by anollor.¨
Moroovor, llis procoss of dispIacomonl
incIudod mass mobiIizalion, anollor koy allribulo of rovoIulionary
Tloso vlo look lo llo slrools and llon romainod in llo slrools for
moro llan lvo vooks primariIy comprisod sociooconomic groups formod
and slrongllonod by Ukraino´s clango from communism lo capilaIism.
In llo Ianguago of KarI Marx and SamuoI Hunlinglon, lloy voro nov
cIassos pusling up againsl anliqualod poIilicaI inslilulions.
IinaIIy, llo
Orango RovoIulion incIudod momonls vlon lloro voro llroals of
oxlraconslilulionaI moans from lloso on boll sidos of llo barricados,
vlicl is anollor cIassic allribulo of a rovoIulionary silualion.
Tlo Orango RovoIulion, lloroforo, vas an ovonl llal incIudod allribulos
of a rovoIulionary clango of povor bul vill lvo dislincl and IaudabIo
foaluros: mass mobiIizalion villoul vioIonco and sociaI prolosl lrig-
gorod by a faIsifiod oIoclion. Tloso foaluros affirmod in praclico llo
domocralic inslilulions llal in form voro aIroady codifiod in llo Ukrai-
nian conslilulion.
Tlo vory prosonco of llo Iallor plonomonon undorscoros llo conli-
nuily or, al Ioasl, llo connoclivily bolvoon llo Orango RovoIulion and
Ukraino´s lransilion from communism fifloon yoars oarIior. Al llo limo
of indopondonco in 1991, Ukraino vas midslroam in a sociaI rovoIulion,
vlicl vas boginning lo rodofino llo bordors of llo slalo and nalion,
undormino Soviol poIilicaI and oconomic inslilulions, and slarl lo cro-
alo nov markol and domocralic inslilulions. Tlo omorgonco of an indo-
pondonl Ukraino by poacofuI moans vas llo monumonlaI and
undorapprocialod acliovomonl of llo provious docado. Will Ioss suc-
coss, Ukrainian Ioadors in llo provious docado lad aIso managod lo dis-
manlIo mosl Soviol-ora oconomic praclicos and croalo llo pormissivo
condilions for a form of capilaIism (lovovor fIavod) lo lako rool.
Yol llo coIIapso of communism did nol Ioad smoollIy or quickIy lo llo
conclusion 193
consoIidalion of IiboraI domocracy oillor in Ukraino or llrougloul llo
Tlo poIilicaI lransformalion from communisl aulocracy lo IiboraI
domocracy slaIIod in llo 1990s. Boforo llo Orango RovoIulion, Ukraino´s
rogimo÷Iiko many ollors in llo rogion bolvoon llo consoIidalod do-
mocracios in Iasl ConlraI Iuropo and llo fuII-bIovn aulocracios of Con-
lraI Asia÷soomod sluck somovloro in llo lviIigll zono bolvoon do-
mocracy and diclalorslip.
By llo cIoso of llo conlury, llo prospocl of
furllor domocralic gains in Ukraino soomod unIikoIy.
Tlo Orango RovoIulion, lovovor, fundamonlaIIy slallorod llo aI-
Iogod slabiIily of llo oId ordor and croalod llo prospocl of furllor domo-
cralic gains, llal is, llo compIolion of llo poIilicaI lransformalion llal
lad roaIIy bogun fifloon yoars oarIior. In a sonso, llon, llo Orango Rovo-
Iulion roprosonlod a socond vavo of domocralizalion, or domocralic
broakllrougl, in Ukraino, and porlaps llo compIolion of llo lripIo lrans-
formalion of bordors, poIily, and oconomy Iaunclod vill llo coIIapso
of llo Soviol Union in 1991.
Tlo finaI vord, lovovor, on vlollor llo Orango RovoIulion vas a
¨lruo¨ rovoIulion rosls vill llo poopIo of Ukraino. Tlal so many immo-
dialoIy adoplod llo plraso Or.ngc Rctc|uiicn lo doscribo llo lumuIlu-
ous ovonls of llo faII of 2004 suggosls llal llo lorm viII slick, vlollor
Woslorn acadomics Iiko il or nol.

1. In imporlanl vays, SIovakia in 1998 and nol Sorbia in 2000 may lavo boon llo firsl
caso of a domocralic broakllrougl in llo rogion.
2. GuiIIormo O´DonnoII and IliIippo Sclmillor, 1r.nsiiicns |rcm Aui|crii.ri.n Ru|c. 1cn-
i.iitc Ccnc|usicns .ocui Unccri.in Dcmccr.cics (BaIlimoro, Md.: }olns Hopkins Univor-
sily Iross, 1986).
3. To lavo roaI confidonco llal lloso faclors voro aII nocossary vouId roquiro oxpand-
ing llo numbor of casos oxaminod, incIuding, mosl imporlanl, a soIoclion of ¨faiIod¨
casos in llo dala sol, vlicl is a lopic for fuluro rosoarcl.
4. DanioI Brumborg, ¨IiboraIizalion vorsus Domocracy,¨ in Tlomas Carollors and Ma-
rina Ollavay, ods., Unc|.ric! jcurncµ. Prcmciing Dcmccr.cµ in i|c Mi!!|c |.si (Wasl-
inglon, D.C.: Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco, 2005), 15÷36.
5. On llis rogimo lypo, soo Iarry Diamond, ¨Tlinking aboul Hybrid Rogimos,¨ jcur-
n.| c| Dcmccr.cµ, 13(2) (ApriI 2002): 21÷35, and Slovon Iovilsky and Iucan Way,
¨Tlo Riso of Compolilivo Aullorilarianism,¨ jcurn.| c| Dcmccr.cµ, 13(2) (ApriI
2002): 51÷65.
6. ClarIos King, ¨Iolomkin Domocracy: Iour Mylls of Iosl-Soviol Goorgia,¨ 1|c N.-
iicn.| |nicrcsi (Summor 2001): 93÷104.
7. AIoxandor MolyI and Amanda Sclnolzor, N.iicns in 1r.nsii 2004. Dcmccr.iiz.iicn in
|.si Ccnir.| |urcpc .n! |ur.si. (Nov York: Iroodom Houso vill Rovman and
IillIofioId, 2005), 238.
194 michael mcfaul
8. ZoIjko Cvijanovic, ¨BoIgrado Opposilion Upboal,¨ |nsiiiuic |cr W.r .n! Pc.cc Rcpcri-
ing, BCR, 160 (}uIy 28, 2000).
9. Offico of Rosoarcl, Opinion and AnaIysis, Doparlmonl of Slalo, ¨Goorgians Iasl Ios-
ing Iaill in Slovardnadzo and Tloir Domocracy,¨ M 238 01, Docombor 3, 2001, 1.
10. NalionaI Domocralic Inslilulo, Scroi. |ssucs Pc|| (proparod by Ionn, Scloon and
BorgIand Associalos, Oclobor 24, 1999).
11. Tlo faiIuro of Slovardnadzo´s govornmonl lo figll corruplion promplod llo Inlorna-
lionaI Monolary Iund lo suspond ils programs in Goorgia lvo monlls boforo llo
12. Inlorviovs vill CoSID officiaIs Zoran Iucic and Marko BIagojovic, Boograd, Sorbia,
}anuary 13, 2005.
13. Ibid.
14. Inlorviov vill Anna TarklnislviIi, llo diroclor of llo Businoss and ConsuIling Com-
pany, ono of llo llroo firms invoIvod in llo oxil poII, TbiIisi, Goorgia, Oclobor 14,
15. Inlorviov vill Igor Iopov, llo clair of llo Commilloo of Ukrainian Volors, Kyiv,
Marcl 10, 2005.
16. Inlorviov vill IIko Kucloriv, llo prosidonl of llo Domocralic Inilialivos Ioundalion
and llo organizor of llis oxil-poII consorlium, Kyiv, Ukraino, Marcl 10, 2005.
17. Inlorviov vill CIC mombor Roman Knyazovicl, Kyiv, Marcl 12, 2005.
18. On B÷92´s lislory, soo Malllov CoIIin, Gucri||. R.!ic. Rcc| 'n´ Rc|| R.!ic .n! Scroi.´s
Un!crgrcun! Rcsisi.ncc (Nov York: Nalion Books, 2002).
19. MolyI and Sclnolzor, N.iicns in 1r.nsii 2004, 301.
20. On llo Sorbia connoclions, soo llo inlorviov vill David ZurabislviIi, llo formor load
of llo Iiborly Inslilulo, in Zurab Karumidzo and }amos Wolscl, ods., |ncug|. 1|c Rcsc
Rctc|uiicn in i|c Rcpuo|ic c| Gccrgi. 2003 (Nov York: Nova Scionco IubIislors, 2005), 61÷
68, and Iolor Bakor, ¨TbiIisi´s 'RovoIulion of Rosos´ Monlorod by Sorbian Aclivisls,¨
W.s|ingicn Pcsi, Novombor 25, 2003, A22.
21. C. }. Clivors, ¨Hov Top Spios in Ukraino Clangod llo Nalion´s Iall,¨ Ncu Ycr|
1imcs, }anuary 17, 2005, 1.
22. Timur Kuron, ¨Nov oul of Novor: Tlo IIomonl of Surpriso in llo Iasl Iuropoan
RovoIulion of 1989,¨ Wcr|! Pc|iiics, 44(1) (Oclobor 1991): 7÷48.
23. Tloro is ovidonco llal Ukrainian and Goorgian officors vlo parlicipalod in Iarlnor-
slip for Ioaco programs may lavo pIayod a roIo in diffusing lloso crisos in 2003 and
2004, bul llo ovidonco marslaIod lo dalo is anocdolaI.
24. Soymour Marlin Iipsol, ¨Somo SociaI Roquisilos of Domocracy,¨ Amcric.n Pc|iiic.|
Scicncc Rcticu, 53 (Marcl 1959): 69÷105.
25. On llo imporlanco of oconomic crisis for domocralic lransilions, soo Sloplan Hag-
gard and Roborl Kaufman, 1|c Pc|iiic.| |ccncmµ c| Dcmccr.iic 1r.nsiiicns (Irincolon:
Irincolon Univorsily Iross, 1995).
26. Dankvarl Ruslov, ¨Transilions lo Domocracy: Tovard a Dynamic ModoI,¨ Ccmp.r.-
iitc Pc|iiics, 2 (1970): 350÷51.
27. MiclaoI McIauI, ¨Tlo Iourll Wavo of Domocracy and Diclalorslip: Noncooporalivo
Transilions in llo Ioslcommunisl WorId,¨ Wcr|! Pc|iiics, 54n(2) (}anuary 2002): 212
28. Tloso aclors and llis framovork for undorslanding domocralic lransilions, vlicl in
many vays las bocomo llo modoI for anaIyzing lransilions, como from O´DonnoII
and Sclmillor, 1r.nsiiicns |rcm Aui|crii.ri.n Ru|c.
29. Inlorviovs vill sovoraI domocralic aclivisls invoIvod in llo anli-MiIosovic campaign
in 2000. IoIIs slov llal MiIosovic bonofilod in llo slorl run from llo bombing cam-
paign, aIllougl, ironicaIIy, llis spiko in popuIarily may lavo causod lim lo miscaIcu-
Ialo lis clancos of vinning a dirocl oIoclion.
conclusion 195
30. On llo mispIacod omplasis on Ioadors moro gonoraIIy in sucl silualions, soo Kurl
Sclock, ¨NonvioIonl Aclion and Ils Misconcoplions: Insiglls for SociaI Scionlisls,¨
PS. Pc|iiic.| Scicncc .n! Pc|iiics, 36(4) (Oclobor 2003): 705÷12.
31. HoIsinki Commilloo for Human Riglls in Sorbia, Hum.n Rig|is .n! Acccuni.oi|iiµ.
Scroi. 2003 (BoIgrado, 2004), 163÷66.
32. Inlorviovs vill sovoraI Goorgian NGO Ioadors, TbiIisi, Goorgia, Oclobor 12÷14, 2004.
33. On lloso varying dofinilions of rovoIulions and lloorios of rovoIulion, soo }ack GoId-
slono, ¨Tloorios of RovoIulion: Tlo Tlird Gonoralion,¨ Wcr|! Pc|iiics, 32 (ApriI 1980):
34. Tloda SkocpoI, Si.ics .n! Scci.| Rctc|uiicns. A Ccmp.r.iitc An.|µsis c| Ir.ncc, Russi.,
.n! C|in. (Cambridgo, U.K.: Cambridgo Univorsily Iross, 1979).
35. Barringlon Mooro, Scci.| Origins c| Dici.icrs|ip .n! Dcmccr.cµ (Cambridgo, Mass.:
Harvard Univorsily Iross, 1966).
36. On llo slagos of rovoIulions, soo Crano Brinlon, An.icmµ c| Rctc|uiicn (Nov York:
Vinlago Iross, 1938), and VIadimir Mau and Irina Slaradubrovskaya, 1|c C|.||cngc c|
Rctc|uiicn. Ccnicmpcr.rµ Russi. in Hisicric.| Pcrspcciitc (Oxford, U.K.: Oxford Univor-
sily Iross, 2001).
37. Ior a difforonl viov, soo MiclaoI McIauI, ¨RovoIulionary Transformalions in Com-
paralivo Iorspoclivo: Dofining a Iosl-Communisl Rosoarcl Agonda,¨ in David
HoIIovay and Norman Naimark, ods., Rccx.mining i|c Sctici |xpcricncc. |ss.µs in Hcncr
c| A|cx.n!cr D.||in (BouIdor, CoIo.: Woslviov Iross, 1996), 167÷96, and Iolor Ackorman
and }ack DuvaII, A Icrcc Mcrc Pcucr|u|. A Ccniurµ c| Ncntic|cni Ccn||ici (Nov York:
IaIgravo, 2000).
38. ClaImors }olnson, Rctc|uiicn.rµ C|.ngc (Slanford, CaIif.: Slanford Univorsily Iross,
1982), 7.
39. On llo dofinilion of a rovoIulionary silualion vorsus a rovoIulionary oulcomo, soo
ClarIos TiIIy, Ircm Mcoi|iz.iicn ic Rctc|uiicn (Roading, Mass.: Addison-WosIoy, 1978),
claplor 9. Tlo idoa of duaI sovoroignly as a dofinilion of a rovoIulionary silualion
comos originaIIy from Ioon Trolsky´s Hisicrµ c| i|c Russi.n Rctc|uiicn.
40. Ibid., 192.
41. SamuoI Hunlinglon, Pc|iiic.| Or!cr in C|.nging Scciciics (Nov Havon: YaIo Univorsily
Iross, 1968).
42. McIauI, ¨Tlo Iourll Wavo.¨
43. Tlo imago of llo lviIigll zono comos from Iarry Diamond, Dctc|cping Dcmccr.cµ
(BaIlimoro: }olns Hopkins Univorsily Iross, 1999). Tlo idoa of a slalic quaIily of ro-
gimos sluck bolvoon diclalorslip and domocracy comos from Tlomas Carollors, ¨Tlo
Ind of llo Transilion Iaradigm,¨ jcurn.| c| Dcmccr.cµ, 13(1) (}anuary 2002).
even as it was taking place, Ukraino´s Orango RovoIulion vas an
oarll-slalloring ovonl. Ior ono monll, ils minuliao dominalod llo in-
lornalionaI modia. Il slands oul as llo groalosl poIilicaI uploavaI in Iasl-
ConlraI Iuropo sinco 1991, bul aIso as llo major poslcommunisl rovoIl
in favor of domocracy in a sorios of ovonls llal slarlod in SIovakia in
1998, foIIovod by Sorbia in 2000, Goorgia in 2003, and Kyrgyzslan in
Marcl 2005. Tlo naluraI quoslion is, vlicl counlry is noxl`
Wlalovor foIIovs llis uploavaI, llo Orango RovoIulion vas a groal
lisloricaI ovonl. Wo lloroforo docidod lo vrilo a book aboul llo Orango
RovoIulion as soon as il ondod vill llo inauguralion of Viklor
Yuslclonko as llo domocralicaIIy oIoclod prosidonl of Ukraino on }anu-
ary 23, 2005. Our purposo las boon lo anaIyzo llis rovoIulion lo slov
vly il lapponod and llo conlribulion of various faclors.
Wo closo lo do a compiIalion, vill a claplor for oacl major aspocl of
llo rovoIulion, soIocling llo bosl oxporl for oacl issuo. Tvo Ioading
Woslorn poIilicaI scionlisls, Adrian Karalnycky and Taras Kuzio, focus
on Ukrainian poIilics, covoring llo omorgonco of llo poIilicaI opposi-
lion and sociaI alliludos, rospoclivoIy. Nadia Diuk, a Ionglimo spociaIisl
on Ukrainian affairs and llo diroclor for llo rogion al llo NalionaI In-
dovmonl for Domocracy, look on llo ovoIulion of civiI socioly. Tlo ac-
livisl group pIayod sucl a major roIo in llo rovoIulion llal vo askod
IavoI Domos and }oorg Iorbrig of llo Gorman MarslaII Iund, vlo lad
vorkod vill Iora, lo loII us lloir slory. Considoring llo onormous im-
porlanco of llo Inlornol novspapor U|r.ins|. pr.t!. in llo rovoIulion,
vo voro lappy llal ils odilor-in-cliof, OIona IryluIa, agrood lo vrilo
aboul llo impacl of llo modia. To avoid Woslorn biasos, vo vanlod a
Ukrainian lo vrilo aboul llo roIo of llo Wosl in llo oIoclions. Iorlu-
naloIy, lvo porsislonl sludonls of llis lopic, OIoksandr Suslko and OIona
Iryslayko, rospoclivoIy, llo diroclor and projocl diroclor of llo Conlor
for Ioaco, Convorsion, and Ioroign IoIicy of Ukraino in Kyiv, agrood lo
givo lloir porspoclivos. To lavo llo curious roIo of Russia in llo rovoIu-
lion iIIuminalod, vo askod our coIIoaguos from llo Carnogio Moscov
Conlor, NikoIai Iolrov and Androi Ryabov, lo doIvo inlo llo lopic, vlicl
las aIroady gonoralod a lugo amounl of vriling in Russia. Wo aro doopIy
gralofuI lo aII our aullors for lloir diIigonl and conscionlious vork. Ii-
naIIy, for oursoIvos vo closo llo lopic of llo oId rogimo and llo Orango
RovoIulion from a comparalivo porspoclivo, rospoclivoIy.
Wo askod ovoryono lo vrilo quickIy, and on Marcl 10, 2005, vo orga-
nizod a fuII-day book vorkslop al llo InlornalionaI Ronaissanco Ioun-
dalion in Kyiv. Mosl of llo aullors prosonlod lloir papors in drafl form.
Tlo discussion vas inlonso.
Aparl from graliludo lo llo aullors, vo vanl lo llank llo foIIoving
poopIo for lloir aclivo parlicipalion (in aIplabolic ordor): Sloplan
Bandora, Markian BiIynskyy, AIoxandor BogomoIov, Talyana Boyko,
Yovlon Byslrylsky, VaIory ClaIy, Iryna Clupryna, }ulani Grossman,
Clris HoIzon, Andriy Ignalov, VIadisIav Kaskiv, IIko Kucloriv, SaIIy
Kux, Masla Iipman, Inna IidIuska, Dmilri Iolioklin, OIoksandr
Iolioklin, OIoksandr SoIonlay, }oln Somors, Kallryn Slovons, MyklaiIo
Svyslovycl, Yaryna Yasynovycl, and Sorgoi Yovluslonko.
Tlis book is a producl of llo Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI
Ioaco. Wo vanl lo llank our managomonl and coIIoaguos al llo In-
dovmonl for lloir moraI, inloIIocluaI, and financiaI supporl for llis
projocl: }ossica Mallovs, IauI BaIaran, Goorgo Iorkovicl, Carmon
MacDougaII, and Carrio MuIIon. Marina Barnoll, Malllov Gibson, and
Roman Ginzburg lavo assislod groalIy in odiling llo manuscripl, Daria
Klabarova providod firsl-ralo rosoarcl assislanco, and as aIvays, Ann
Slockor las providod oxcoIIonl socrolariaI supporl.
In addilion, vo aro gralofuI for financiaI supporl from llo Iav Roform
Inslilulo, llo Gorman MarslaII Iund of llo Unilod Slalos, llo Inlorna-
lionaI Ronaissanco Ioundalion, and llo Clopivsky IamiIy Ioundalion.
÷Andors AsIund and MiclaoI McIauI
198 acknowledgments
Appendix: Election Results
TabIe A.1. First-Rnund PresidentiaI EIectinn, Octnber 31, 2004
Yus|c|cn|c Y.nu|ctµc| Mcrcz Sµmcncn|c
TornopiI rogion 87.5 5.5 2.0 0.5
Ivano-Irankivsk rogion 89.0 4.5 1.4 0.7
Iviv rogion 87.3 5.8 1.6 0.8
VoIyn rogion 77.2 10.5 3.2 2.1
Rivno rogion 69.3 16.1 5.2 2.3
Vinnylsia rogion 59.7 16.0 12.8 3.9
Kyiv rogion 59.7 16.7 9.4 3.3
KlmoInilskyi rogion 57.9 21.1 7.1 4.1
Clornivlsi rogion 66.6 17.9 2.7 2.6
Sumy rogion 52.7 25.7 7.3 4.0
Clorkassy rogion 57.7 17.9 11.8 4.3
Kyiv 62.4 14.6 5.4 3.1
Clorniliv rogion 43.4 24.5 16.3 5.2
Zakarpalska rogion 46.6 37.8 2.0 1.5
Zlylomyr rogion 43.5 29.2 10.3 6.3
IoIlava rogion 43.6 26.0 15.4 5.6
Kirovolrad rogion 39.0 30.8 12.5 7.0
Klorson rogion 32.1 37.4 7.3 10.0
Dnipropolrovsk rogion 18.7 49.7 5.3 10.6
MykoIaiv rogion 17.9 54.0 5.4 7.8
Odosa rogion 17.3 53.4 8.5 6.7
Klarkiv rogion 15.4 57.4 5.3 7.9
Zaporizlzlia rogion 16.6 55.7 5.3 8.8
Aulonomous RopubIic of Crimoa 12.8 69.2 1.0 6.7
SovaslopoI 6.0 73.5 1.2 8.8
Iulansk rogion 4.5 80.0 1.9 5.8
Donolsk rogion 2.9 86.7 1.3 3.3
TntaI 39.9 39.3 5.8 5.0
Ncic. Volor lurnoul vas 74.5 porconl.

TabIe A.2. 5ecnnd-Rnund PresidentiaI EIectinn, Nnvember 21, 2004
Yus|c|cn|c Y.nu|ctµc|
TornopiI rogion 93.5 5.2
Ivano-Irankivsk rogion 93.4 5.1
Iviv rogion 91.8 6.6
VoIyn rogion 85.8 11.9
Rivno rogion 76.7 20.1
Vinnylsia rogion 75.9 21.1
Kyiv rogion 76.4 20.0
KlmoInilskyi rogion 71.5 24.9
Clornivlsi rogion 74.5 21.7
Sumy rogion 69.1 26.4
Clorkassy rogion 71.9 24.1
Kyiv 74.7 19.9
Clorniliv rogion 65.7 30.0
Zakarpalska rogion 55.0 40.0
Zlylomyr rogion 60.4 40.1
IoIlava rogion 60.9 34.5
Kirovolrad rogion 47.1 46.5
Klorson rogion 42.3 52.3
Dnipropolrovsk rogion 29.6 63.6
MykoIaiv rogion 25.4 69.6
Odosa rogion 26.1 67.8
Klarkiv rogion 24.1 70.3
Zaporizlzlia rogion 24.1 70.3
Aulonomous RopubIic of Crimoa 14.6 82.0
SovaslopoI 7.6 89.0
Iulansk rogion 4.8 92.7
Donolsk rogion 2.0 96.2
TntaI 46.6 49.5
Ncic. Volor lurnoul vas 80.4 porconl.

200 appendi x
TabIe A.3. Rerun 5ecnnd-Rnund PresidentiaI EIectinn,
December 26, 2004
Yus|c|cn|c Y.nu|ctµc|
TornopiI rogion 96.0 2.7
Ivano-Irankivsk rogion 95.7 2.9
Iviv rogion 93.7 4.7
VoIyn rogion 90.7 7.0
Rivno rogion 84.5 12.3
Vinnylsia rogion 84.1 12.9
Kyiv rogion 82.7 13.8
KlmoInilskyi rogion 80.5 16.0
Clornivlsi rogion 79.8 16.4
Sumy rogion 79.5 16.9
Clorkassy rogion 79.1 17.4
Kyiv 78.4 17.5
Clorniliv rogion 71.2 24.2
Zakarpalska rogion 67.5 27.6
Zlylomyr rogion 66.9 28.9
IoIlava rogion 66.0 29.2
Kirovolrad rogion 63.4 31.8
Klorson rogion 43.4 51.3
Dnipropolrovsk rogion 32.0 61.1
MykoIaiv rogion 27.7 67.1
Odosa rogion 27.5 66.6
Klarkiv rogion 26.4 68.1
Zaporizlzlia rogion 24.5 70.1
Aulonomous RopubIic of Crimoa 15.4 81.3
SovaslopoI 8.0 88.8
Iulansk rogion 6.2 91.2
Donolsk rogion 4.2 93.5
TntaI 52.0 44.2
Ncic. Volor lurnoul vas 77.2 porconl.
Scurcc. ConlraI IIoclion Commission of Ukraino, avaiIabIo al

appendi x 201
Acadomy of Scionco Inslilulo of SocioIogy,
Adamkus, VaIdas, 2, 132
Agrarian Iarly, 51÷52
Akaov, Askar, 162, 169÷70, 171, 187, 189÷90
Aklmolov, Rinal: dominalion of Donolsk
rogion, 16, 54, 60, poIilicaI ongagomonl,
20, 21, Syslom CapilaI Managomonl
loIdings, 17, 24, 107
AIbrigll, MadoIoino, 129, 133, 184
A|cx.n!ri. Qu.rici (DurroII), 8
ancion rógimo. Scc oId rogimo
Anlicorruplion Commilloo, 87
Ariso Ukraino prolosls, 55
Armilago, Riclard, 133
Asl, Timolly Garlon, 153
AsIund, Andors, 4, 167, 186
Associalion of Iav Sludonls, 88
Associalion of Ukrainian Youll, 101n5
Azarov, MykoIa, 22÷23
Bakai, Ilor, 10, 12, 13
Bakiov, Kurmanbok, 173
Balkivslclyna Iarly, 12, 33, 34. Scc .|sc
Tymoslonko, YuIia
BBC radio, 113÷14, 116, 179
BoIkovsky, SlanisIav, 151, 153, 154, 158÷59,
162n3, 162n6
Bcz iscnzµrµ (novspapor), 107
BIack Iora, 67n10, 68n25, 77÷78, 91÷92, 99÷
100, 101n7
B 92 radio slalion of Sorbia, 177, 185
BogoIiubov, Gonnady, 18, 20
Boyko, Talyana, 91÷92
Bragin, Alali, 11
Brodsky, MiklaiI, 58, 61
Brzozinsky, Zbigniov, 129, 133
Burjanadzo, Nino, 169, 173
Busl, Goorgo H. W., 129, 133
Busl, Goorgo W., adminislralion, 133÷34
ByuT. Scc YuIia Tymoslonko bIoc
cabinol minislors, 22
campaign financing, 20, 38, 40, by oIigar-
cly, 4, 13, 24, by Russia, 7
campaigns. Scc prosidonliaI campaign of
Canadian InlornalionaI DovoIopmonl
Agoncy, 97
Conlor for SociaI and IoIilicaI Invosliga-
lions (SOCIS), 156
Conlor for Supporling Irivalo Inilialivos,
ConlraI IIoclion Commilloo, 41, 79, 119,
131, corlificalion of llo volo counl, 3,
176, oIoclion moniloring, 138÷39, fund-
ing of oIoclions, 135, voling in Russia,
ClannoI 5 loIovision, 41, 111÷13, 179, 185,
govornmonl roprossion, 116÷17, 121,
invosligalions of poisoning of
Yuslclonko, 116, Iivo broadcasls of
204 i ndex
domonslralions, 2, 56, 81, 120, prosidon-
liaI oIoclion of 2004, 118÷21,
Yuslclonko´s caII for domonslralions,
Cloclyk, Yuriy, 115
Clomorys, VoIodymyr, 48
Clornomyrdin, Viklor, 153, 163n13
Clorvononko, Yovlon, 19
ClornoviI, VyaclosIav, 30, 125
Clrislian-Domocralic Youll of Ukraino, 88
Clysla Ukraina, 48, 77
Cimoszovicz, WIodzimiorz, 131
CIS. Scc CommonvoaIll of Indopondonl
cilizons. Scc pubIic opinion, pubIic parlici-
civiI socioly, 5÷6, 69÷83, 85÷86, anlicorrup-
lion groups, 48÷49, clargo of lorrorism
by govornmonl, 57, dofinilion, 70÷71,
oIoclion moniloring, 174÷76, oIoclion
procossos, 73÷75, 127, omorgonco, 29÷
30, 86÷87, funding, 6, 82, 87, 127, 130,
135, lisloricaI ovorviov, 71÷73, infor-
malion roIo, 72÷73, Inlornol uso, 72÷73,
108÷11, moniloring groups, 72, nol-
vorks and coaIilions, 74÷75, 80÷82, 86÷
88, pan-Iuropoan nalionaI idonlily, 62÷
66, 99, parIiamonlary oIoclions of 2002,
77, prosidonliaI oIoclion of 2004, 77÷82,
86÷88, prolosl domonslralions, 6, 41,
75÷82, rosponso lo Kuclma´s prosi-
doncy, 32÷34, llink lanks, 72, lraining,
79, lransilions from aullorilarian ruIo,
43÷44, 69÷70, uso of Inlornol, 5, Wavo
of Iroodom movomonl, 86÷88, Woslorn
roIo, 134÷35. Scc .|sc modia, Iora movo-
monl, pubIic opinion
CIark, WosIoy, 129, 133
Commilloo for NalionaI SaIvalion, 40,
44n1, 76
Commilloo of Volors of Ukraino (CVU), 73,
74, 88, 175÷76
Common Iconomic Spacos (CIS), 146, 147,
CommonvoaIll of Indopondonl Slalos
(CIS): oconomic slalus, 49, managod
domocracios, 60÷61, roIo of oIigarcls,
52, Russian infIuonco, 146, 151
Communicalion DovoIopmonl Conlor, 87
Communisl Iarly of Ukraino (CIU), 13, 29,
59, aIIiancos vill oIigarcls, 13, domo-
cralic pIalform, 30, Gongadzo assassi-
nalion, 76, opposilion lo Kuclma, 34,
parIiamonlary oIoclions of 2002, 15÷16,
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004, 53, 157÷
Congross of Ukrainian NalionaIisls, 101n5
ConIan, }oln, 141
conslilulion of 1996, 26, 55, 192, oxlonsions
of prosidonliaI povor, 31, 32, roduclions
in prosidonliaI povor, 3, 42÷43, 10 yoars
of Kuclmizm prolosls, 78
Cossack socioly, 71
CounciI of Iuropo: oIoclion moniloring,
137÷39, 137i, 143n44, 175, moniloring
of poIilicaI roforms, 126÷27, 129, 131. Scc
.|sc Iuropoan Union
CounciI of Minislors buiIding, 42
Crimoa rogion, 53, 63, 149÷50, oIoclion ro-
suIls, 199÷201, volor lurnoul, 157
Domos, IavoI, 6, 179
Domocracy Ioaguo, 74
Domocralic Inilialivos Iund, 47, 73, 88, 135
domocralic opposilion, 5, 29÷44, 120, 167÷
68, aIIiancos vill civiI socioly, 76÷78,
aIIiancos vill govornmonl, 30÷32, aIIi-
anco vill civiI socioly, 29÷30, 41, Clan-
noI 5 loIovision, 112÷13, cIandoslino
Russian supporl, 152÷53, oIocloraI rovo-
Iulions, 85÷86, 168÷70, omorgonco, 29÷
32, funding, 31, Ioadorslip, 33÷34, 170÷
71, 180, 187, 188, modia roIo, 2, 39, 41,
52÷53, 59, 107÷17, parIiamonlary oIoc-
lions of 2002, 34÷37, 45, 77, rogionaI, 7÷
8, rojoclions of vioIonco, 2, 44, 189, ro-
sponso lo Kuclma´s prosidoncy, 32÷34,
loclnoIogy and llo Inlornol, 5, 6, 56÷
57, 90, 98, 108÷11, 121, 178÷79, lransi-
lions from aullorilarian ruIo, 43÷44, 69÷
81, unificalion, 171÷74, Woslorn
infIuonco, 128÷29. Scc .|sc oIoclions,
oIocloraI rovoIulions, Iora movomonl,
prolosl domonslralions, lransilions
from aullorilarian ruIo
Domocralic Opposilion of Sorbia (DOS),
172, 175, 180, 187
Dcn novspapor, 107
Dorkacl, Andriy, 113
Dorkacl, Ioonid, 22÷23
do TocquoviIIo, AIoxis, 9, 25, 28n28
Doulsclo WoIIo radio, 113÷14, 116
DovoIopmonl Associalos, Inc., 135
Diuk, Nadia, 5÷6, 174
Djindjic, Zoran, 168, 172, 182, 187, 189
Dmylruk, NalaIia, 119
Dnipropolrovsk rogion, 11÷12, 26, 32, oco-
nomic compolilion, 20, oIoclion rosuIls,
199÷201, Inlorpipo oIigarcls, 18, Iabor
Ukraino Iarly, 21, oIigarcls, 17, 18, Iora
lonl camps, 95
Donbass. Scc Donolsk rogion, Iulansk
i ndex 205
Donolsk rogion, 11, 16, 26, 54, 149÷50, dis-
criminalion againsl Ukrainians, 63, oco-
nomic compolilion, 20, 147÷48, oIoclion
rosuIls, 199÷201, InduslriaI Union of
Donbass (ISD), 18÷19, oIigarcls, 17, 60,
parlicipalion in Kyiv prolosls, 62, Iora
lonl camps, 95, Rogions Iarly, 21, 23,
Russian infIuonco, 153÷55, supporl of
Yanukovycl, 22, 24, 53, 60, volor lurn-
oul, 157
donors. Scc funding
Doronko, Sorgoi, 154
Dralamanov, MyklaiIo, 71, 83n2
Draskovic, Vuk, 172
DurroII, Iavronco, 8
Dynamo Group, 17÷18
Dzurinda, MikuIas, 131, 142n18
oconomic faclors, 10÷14, 18÷20, 186, com-
modily lrading, 10÷11, compolilion, 20,
24, corporalo consoIidalion, 19÷20, cri-
sis of 1999-2000, 13÷14, oconomic
grovll, 13, 25, 49÷51, 51i, 148, 186, oIoc-
loraI rovoIulions, 85÷86, onorgy indus-
lry, 11÷12, 14, 18, 150, focus on produc-
lion, 20, gas and oiI laxos, 150, gross
domoslic producl (GDI), 13, 25, 51i,
148, Iand roform, 14, oIigarcly, 5, prosi-
donliaI campaign of 2004, 47, 49,
privalizalion, 4, 14, 18, 19, 24, 25, ronl
sooking, 10, 14, 20, Russian oconomic
concossions, 148, 150, slalo capluro, 10,
slooI induslry, 14, 17, 18÷19, 24,
Yuslclonko´s poIicios, 13÷14
oIoclion, prosidonliaI, of 1991, 30, 45
oIoclion, prosidonliaI, of 1994, 30, 45, 60,
oIoclion, prosidonliaI, of 1999, 13, 30, 45, 60,
74, 104
oIoclion, prosidonliaI, of Oclobor 31, 2004,
1, 137i, oIoclion rosuIls, 199, Iora ro-
sponso, 95÷96, prodiclions of fraud, 46,
voling in Russia, 156
oIoclion, prosidonliaI, of Novombor 21,
2004, 1÷2, 59÷60, civic forums, 74, civiI
socioly, 74÷75, duaI sovoroignly, 42,
166, 192, oIoclion fraud, 1, 7, 38÷39, 41,
78, 80, 119, 138÷39, 148÷49, 175÷76, oIoc-
lion rosuIls, 200, oxil poII rosuIls, 38,
175÷76, 178, lumorous viovs of, 57÷62,
inlornalionaI modialion, 2÷3, 131, 132,
138÷40, 160, 165, 189, maps, 65, moni-
loring, 136÷39, 174÷76, 185, nuIIificalion
by Rada, 3, 42, 55, 176, prodiclions of
fraud, 4, 46, 79, 87, 95, Russian inlorfor-
onco, 157÷58, YuIia Tymoslonko bIoc
(ByuT), 64. Scc .|sc Iora movomonl,
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004
oIoclion, prosidonliaI, of Docombor 26,
2004, 1÷3, 50, oIoclion moniloring, 137i,
176, oIoclion rosuIls, 39, 201, maps, 65
oIoclion financing. Scc campaign financing
oIoclions, parIiamonlary, of 1998, 30, 45, 73
oIoclions, parIiamonlary, of 2002, 5, 15÷16,
27n11, 35i, 167÷68, civiI socioly, 74, 86÷
87, oxil poII rosuIls, 73, Ianguago issuos,
64, modia lomnyky, 106÷7, opposilion
succossos, 34÷37, 45, 77, 173, prodiclions
of fraud, 76, prolosl domonslralions,
48÷49, 55
oIoclions, parIiamonlary, upcoming, 43
oIocloraI Iav, 3
oIocloraI rovoIulions, 70, 85÷86, 165÷93,
193n3, campaign loclniquos, 187÷88,
oconomic dovoIopmonl, 186, oIoclion
moniloring, 174÷76, 185,
oxlraconslilulionaI moans, 165÷66, 191÷
92, foroign invoIvomonl, 183÷86,
194n23, Ioadorslip, 170÷71, 180, 187,
188, modia indopondonco, 176÷79, 185,
mobiIizalion of domonslralions, 179÷
81, 185, nogolialions, 165÷66, organizod
opposilion, 171÷74, poriods of duaI sov-
oroignly, 42, 166, 192, poIily dispulos,
186÷87, rctc|uiicn lorm, 190÷93, roIo of
oId rogimos, 187, socurily sorvico ro-
sponsos, 182÷83, 194n23, somiaullor-
ilarian backdrops, 167÷70, 184, lriggors,
165÷66. Scc .|sc domocralic opposilion,
Iora movomonl
omigralion, 51
onorgy induslry, 11÷12, 14, 18
IquaI Accoss Commilloo, 88
IRA radio, 81, 113, 114, 115
IRA loIovision, 41
IroIi, Adam, 133
Iurasian Iconomic Communily (IIC), 146
Iuropoan Commission, 130, 131, 132, 135
Iuropoan Noiglbourlood IoIicy, 130, 132
Iuropoan Nolvork of IIoclion Moniloring
Organizalions (INIMO), 185
Iuropoan IarIiamonl, 137÷39, 137i, 143n44
Iuropoan Union, 6÷7, biIaloraI agroomonls
vill Ukraino, 130, ConlraI Iuropoan
bIoc, 134, inlorosls in Ukraino, 128÷32,
134, 141, modialion of oIoclions, 160,
modialion roIo, 2÷3, 131, 132, 138÷40,
pro-domocracy posilion, 7, Russia-firsl
posilion, 7, 131÷32, 141
Iurovision song compolilion, 99
oxil poIIs, 38, 73, 78, 174÷76, 178
I.|iµ labIoid, 107
206 i ndex
IodoraI RopubIic of YugosIavia (IRI). Scc
Sorbian rovoIulion of 2000
Iirsl NalionaI ClannoI loIovision, 18, 111,
Iokin, ViloId, 33
Ior a Unilod Ukraino coaIilion, 34÷35
Iorbrig, }oorg, 6, 179
foroign poIicios of Ukraino, 130, 145÷47. Scc
.|sc Russia, Unilod Slalos, Woslorn roIo
Ior Trull coaIilion, 33, 39÷40, 76, 77, 101n5
Iroodom Houso, 43÷44, 97, 135, 179
Iroodom of Cloico coaIilion, 74, 77, Iora
movomonl, 88, 95, slalo roprossion, 94
Ironl for NalionaI SaIvalion coaIilion, 34÷
funding: of civiI socioly, 6, 82, 87, 127, 130,
135, of indopondonl modia, 185, of op-
posilion parlios, 31, of poIilicaI cam-
paigns, 4, 7, 13, 20, 24, 40, 152÷53, 158÷
59, 161, 163n10, of Iora movomonl, 6,
97÷98, of prolosl domonslralions, 4, 20,
40, 41, 82, Russian sourcos, 152÷53, 161,
163n10, Woslorn sourcos, 40, 97÷98, 127,
130, 135, 152, 158÷59, 184÷86
Iund of IocaI Domocracy, 87
GaIa Radio, 115
Gamsaklurdia, Zviad, 169
Gazprom, 152
GoIman, Maral, 150, 154
Goorgian Roso RovoIulion, 2, 4, 6÷7, 165÷
66, 168, clargos of Woslorn inlorfor-
onco, 125÷26, civiI socioly, 70, civiI var,
186, consoIidalion of domocracy, 189,
corruplion, 171, 194n11, docIino in sup-
porl for Slovardnadzo, 6, 170÷71, oIoc-
lion moniloring, 137, 174, 175, 185, in-
dopondonl modia, 176, 177÷78, 185,
Kmara, 48, 86, 91, 180÷81, Ioadorslip,
188, mobiIizalion of domonslralors,
180÷81, 185, organizod opposilion, 171,
173÷74, roIo of oId rogimo, 187, socu-
rily sorvico rosponsos, 182÷83, 194n23.
Scc .|sc SaakaslviIi, MikloiI
Gorman MarslaII Iund of llo Unilod
Slalos, 97
Girslborg, Gooffroy, 115
gIasnosl, 71÷72
Gongadzo, Hoorliy, 6, assassinalion, 5, 14÷
15, 23, 32÷33, 105, 167, 171, modia in-
vosligalion, 105÷6, MoInyclonko lapos,
75÷76, 105, Radio Conlinonl, 114
Gorbaclov, MiklaiI, 29÷30
Gravis TV clannoI, 103÷4
Grok, AIik, 11
GryzIov, Boris, 2, 139, 160
Haiduk, VilaIy, 18
HoIIman, }ooI, 10
Horbsl, }oln I., 132, 158÷59
Holman, Vadim, 13
HoIbrooko, Riclard, 129, 133
HoIovaly, Sorliy, 30
HrandzoIy band, 54
Hr.nµ+ novspapor, 107
lromada, 71, 83n2
Hromada Iarly, 12
Hunlinglon, SamuoI, 192
ICTV loIovision, 17, 24, 111, 117, broadon-
ing of covorago, 119, popuIarily, 120,
lomnycky, 107
Indopondonl Modia Trado Union, 107
InduslriaI Union of Donbass (ISD), 18÷19,
InlornalionaI Domocracy Inslilulo, 100
InlornalionaI Ronaissanco Ioundalion, 74,
InlornalionaI Socioly for Iair IIoclions and
Domocracy (ISIID), 175
Inlornol, 56÷57, 72÷73, audionco, 120,
grovll, 108÷9, informalion roIo, 6, 108÷
11, 117, 120, 178÷79, Iaundoring of in-
formalion, 109, poIilicaI lumor, 110,
Iora movomonl, 90, IubIic Radio, 114,
roguIalion, 110, roIo in civiI socioly, 5,
ToIokrilika vobsilo, 121. Soo aIso
U|r.ins|. pr.t!. Inlornol novspapor
Inlorpipo, 17, 18, 20, 24, 150
Inlorros, 152
Inlor loIovision, 18, 111, 117, 118, 120
Ivasclislin, Markiyan, 89
}aparidzo, Todo, 182
Karalnycky, Adrian, 5, 171
Kaskiv, VIadisIav, 39÷40, 89
KoI KoI group, 181
Klaburzania, VaIory, 182
Klorson rogion, 23
Klroslclalyk lonl cily, 2, 95, 96, 181
Kicts|ic tc!cmcsiµ novspapor, 107
Kinakl, AnaloIiy, 26, 64, appoinlmonl un-
dor Kuclma, 15, 31, prosidonliaI cam-
paign of 2004, 38
KisoIov, AIoksoi, 136
KIilsclko brollors, 48
KIiuov, Androi, 22
Kmara (Goorgian group), 48, 86, 91, 180÷
81, 185. Scc .|sc Goorgian Roso RovoIu-
Kolul, Andriy, 91÷92
KoIomoyskiy, Ilor, 18
Konlraklova IIosla lonl camp, 95, 101n9
i ndex 207
Koslonko, Yuriy, 30÷31, 39
Koslomarov, MykoIa, 71
Koslunica, VojisIav, 172, 175, 180, 185, 187,
KovaIov, NikoIai, 152
Kravclonko, Yuriy, 22÷23, 54÷55
Kravcluk, Ioonid: prosidoncy, 11÷12, 30,
prosidonliaI oIoclion of 1994, 60, 63÷64,
KryvorizlslaI, 24
Kubis, }an, 139
Kuclma, Ioonid, 3, 26, 63, appoinlmonl of
Modvodcluk, 21, 36, 54, 60, assassina-
lion of Gongadzo, 5, 14÷15, 23, 32÷33,
105÷6, 167, 171, clargos of corruplion,
51÷52, 171, consliluoncios, 11, conslilu-
lion of 1996, 55, cooporalion vill ro-
formors, 30÷31, donuncialion of pro-
losls, 47, 55, dismissaI of Yuslclonko,
34, 76, 167, 172÷73, oarIy poIilicaI op-
posilion, 32÷34, 48÷49, 76÷77, oconomic
poIicios, 50, oIoclion fraud, 1, 24, 41, 87,
95, 119, 175÷76, oIoclion lo prosidoncy,
12, 30, oxlonsion of prosidonliaI povor,
16÷17, 23÷24, 25, 31, 32, 55, 147, larass-
monl of opposilion, 33÷34, inlornalionaI
modialion of 2004 oIoclion, 139÷40,
Kinakl´s govornmonl, 15÷16, Ianguago
issuos, 63÷64, managod domocracy
goaIs, 167÷68, modia consorslip and
conlroI, 104÷7, 111÷12, 113, 119, 120,
MoInyclonko lapos, 75÷76, parIiamon-
lary oIoclions of 2002, 15÷16, poIilicaI
appoinlmonls, 31÷32, prosidonliaI oIoc-
lions of 1994, 60, 63÷64, 103÷4, prosidon-
liaI oIoclions of 1999, 12÷13, as primo
minislor, 11÷17, pubIic opinion of, 45,
48÷53, 170÷71, roIalionslip vill llo oIi-
garcly, 9, 11÷17, roIalionslip vill llo
Wosl, 125÷28, 187, Russian supporl, 7,
145, 153÷54, 184, lomnyky, 106÷7
Kuclmagalo, 48÷49, 56, 59
KuIov, Sorgoi, 173
Kuzio, Taras, 5, 170
Kvasniovski, AIoxandor, 2, 131, 132, 139
Kyiv Communily ClannoI, 120
Kyiv group oIigarcls, 17÷18, 23
Kyrgyzslan rovoIulion of 2005, 7, 70, 162,
165÷66, 189÷90, Akaov´s docIino in
popuIarily, 169÷70, 171, oIoclion moni-
loring, 174, 176, 185, Ioadorslip, 188,
modia roIo, 176, 179, mobiIizalion of
domonslralions, 181, 185, organizod
opposilion, 170, 171, 174, poIily dis-
pulos, 187, socurily sorvico rosponsos,
Iabor Ukraino Iarly, 21
Ianguago issuos, 63÷64, 82, 147
Ianoviy, VoIodymyr, 30
Iaudor, RonaId, 108
Iavrynovycl, OIoksandor, 30
Iav onforcomonl, 22÷23, 24, 28n26, 40.
socurily sorvico of Ukraino
Iazaronko, IavIo, 5, 12, 22, 26, 32
Iugar, Riclard G., 133÷34
Iulansk rogion, 53, 149÷50, oIoclion ro-
suIls, 199÷201, volor lurnoul, 157
Iulsonko, Yuriy, 33, 48
Iuzlkov, Yury, 160
Iylvyn, VoIodymyr: modialion of 2004
oIoclion, 139÷40, Radio Iiborly, 115, as
spoakor of parIiamonl, 35, 59, viov on
corruplion, 51÷52, viovs on
Yanukovycl, 59, 60, 67
Maidan prolosls, 1÷2, 41÷43, 95, 96, fund-
ing, 82, modia covorago, 56÷57, 115,
118÷20, 179, music, 64÷66, organizalion,
79÷82, vobsilo, 73, 178. prolosl
MaIorossia rogion, 150
Mandry band, 66
maps, ix, 65
Marlynonko, MykoIa, 19
Marlyniuk, Adam, 127
Marlynov, AIoxoi, 18
Marx, KarI, 192
Malic, Voran, 177
McIauI, MiclaoI, 7
Mociar, VIadimir, 74, 86
modia, 2, 6, 103÷22, B 92 radio slalion of
Sorbia, 177, 185, consorslip and soIf-
consorslip, 103÷5, 110, 113, 117, 119,
ClannoI 5 loIovision, 2, 41, 56, 81, 111÷
13, 118÷21, covorago of prolosl domon-
slralions, 2, 41, 56÷57, 81, 115, 118÷20,
Donolsk rogion, 54, oIocloraI rovoIu-
lions, 176÷79, 185, foroign ovnors, 108,
funding, 185, govornmonl conlroI, 36,
37, 41, 72, 117÷20, govornmonl ropros-
sion, 115÷17, lisloric ovorviov, 103÷5,
indopondonco, 107÷8, 178÷79, 185, In-
dopondonl Modia Trado Union, 107,
Inlornol, 6, 72÷73, 105÷11, 117, 120, 121,
178÷79, invosligalion of llo Gongadzo
caso, 105÷6, oIigarcly, 17÷18, 111÷12,
Tlo Orango Ribbon campaign, 118,
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004, 39, 41,
52÷53, 59, 88, 93, 111÷12, 117÷20, 127÷
28, prinl modia, 107÷8, pubIic dislrusl,
56÷57, radio, 113÷15, roIo in oIocloraI
rovoIulions, 85÷86, 168÷70, saloIIilo
clannoIs, 119÷20, sign-Ianguago
208 i ndex
inlorprolalion, 119, loIovisod dobalos,
67n22, loIovision, 111÷13, lomnyky,
106÷7, 117, 118, 122n8, uso of lumor,
110, 115, 121, Woslorn viovs, 127÷28
Modvodcluk, Viklor, 13, 16, 17÷18, 52,
campaign aclivilios, 154÷55, Iav on-
forcomonl roIo, 23, 24, modia conlroI,
106÷7, 111, 120, 122n8, parIiamonlary
oIoclions of 2002, 36, poIilicaI appoinl-
monls, 21, 36, 54, 60, lomnyky, 106÷7,
Modvodov, Dmilri, 151, 155
MoInyclonko, MykoIa, 14÷15, 33, 75÷76
MiIosovic, SIobodan: NATO bombing cam-
paign, 187, 194n29, popuIarily, 170, ro-
Ialionslip vill llo Wosl, 187, rosigna-
lion in 2000, 86, 168÷69, 180, rosponso
lo Olpor prolosls, 182,
somiaullorilarian ruIo, 184. Scc .|sc
Sorbian rovoIulion of 2000
Minlusov, Igor, 154
Mislura, VaIoriy, 74, 127
Moroz, OIoksandr: Gongadzo caso, 14÷15,
105, modia covorago, 117, prosidonliaI
campaign of 2004, 34, 59, 60, 157, prosi-
donliaI oIoclion of 1994, 30, pubIic opin-
ion, 61
Mukaclovo mayoraI oIoclion, 46, 78, 91
NaloIaslviIi, SlaIva, 173
NalionaI Domocralic Inslilulo (NDI), 184
NalionaI Indovmonl for Domocracy, 135
nalionaI idonlily issuos, 62÷66
NalionaI Indicalivo Irogram 2004÷2006,
NalionaI ToIovision and Broadcasling
CounciI of Ukraino, 114
NATO (Norll AlIanlic Troaly Organiza-
lion): dofoal of Sorbia, 170, 184, 187,
194n29, oIoclion moniloring, 137÷39,
137i, 143n44, inlorosls in Ukraino, 128,
Ukraino´s roIalionslip vill, 131, 147
NBM loIovision, 112
Nov ClannoI loIovision, 17, 24, 111, 117,
Nov Cloico 2004 coaIilion, 74
Nikonov, VyaclosIav, 146, 148, 150, 153,
161, 163n12
NokopoI IorroaIIy IIanl, 18
nongovornmonlaI organizalions. Scc civiI
Norll AlIanlic Troaly Organizalion. Scc
Nova Iora, 99
Odosa-Brody oiI pipoIino, 150
Okoan YoIzy band, 48, 66
OK ´98 (SIovakian group), 86
oId rogimo, 4, 28n28, 167÷68, 187, oconomic
grovll, 25, oIoclion scloduIos, 26, Iav-
Iossnoss, 24÷25, Ioadorslip, 170÷71,
prosidonliaI povor, 10, 16÷17, 23÷24,
proporly riglls, 25, rogionaI rivaIry, 26,
viovs of Wosl, 6. Scc .|sc oIigarcly
oIigarcly, 9÷26, aIIianco vill communisls,
13, campaign financing, 4, 13, 20, 24,
clargos of corruplion, 32, 51÷52, do-
cIino, 16÷17, 23÷26, dofinilion, 10, oIoc-
lion manipuIalion, 45, omorgonco, 10÷
11, Hromada Iarly, 12, Iav
onforcomonl roIos, 22÷23, 28n26, modia
conlroI, 6, 17÷18, 72, 111÷12, parIiamon-
lary oIoclions of 2002, 15÷16, poIilicaI
invoIvomonl, 15÷16, 21÷23, 31, 32, 45,
poIilicaIIy noulraI groups, 18÷19, prosi-
donliaI oIoclion of 2004, 47÷48, 49, 53÷
55, 60, 168, pubIic opinion, 5, roIalion-
slips vill prosidoncy, 9, 21÷23,
roIalionslip vill Kuclma, 9, 11÷17,
168, sourcos of voaIll, 10÷11, 14, sup-
porl for Our Ukraino Iarly, 19, supporl
for Yuslclonko, 15, 19, 168, lax broaks,
150, usos of vioIonco, 11, 13, viovs of
nalionaI claraclor, 54÷55. Scc .|sc oco-
nomic faclors, onorgy markols
1+1 loIovision, 18, 108, 111, 117, 119, 120
opposilion. Scc domocralic opposilion
orango coIor significanco, 3÷4, 37, 82
Tlo Orango Ribbon campaign, 118
Organizalion for Socurily and Cooporalion
in Iuropo (OSCI), 137÷39, 137i, 143n44,
Organizalion of Ukrainian NalionaIisls, 79
organizod crimo, 49
Osirct novspapor, 116
Olpor (Sorbian group), 86, 172, accusalions
of lorrorism, 57, bannor, 67n10, civiI
disobodionco loclniquos, 77, infIuonco
on Ukrainian opposilion groups, 48, 77,
91, mobiIizalion of domonslralors, 179÷
81, nogolialions vill socurily forcos,
182, Woslorn supporl, 185. Scc .|sc
Sorbian rovoIulion of 2000
Our Ukraino Iarly, 2, 34, 167÷68, coaIilion
govornmonl undor Yuslclonko, 44n1,
funding of prolosl domonslralions, 41,
Iack of supporl in oaslorn rogions, 53,
mobiIizalion of domonslralions, 95, 181,
Mukaclovo mayoraI oIoclion, 46, 78,
music, 64÷66, parIiamonlary oIoclions
of 2002, 5, 15÷16, 34÷35, 45, 64, 77, 173,
pIanning for prolosl domonslralions,
41÷42, 181, supporl of oIigarcls, 19, SyIa
narodu coaIilion, 95, 101n8, uso of
i ndex 209
loclnoIogy, 178. Scc .|sc prosidonliaI
campaign of 2004
IACI moniloring commilloo, 126÷27, 137i,
143n44, 175. Scc .|sc CounciI of Iuropo
paraIIoI volo labuIalions, 174÷76
parIiamonl: bonofils for businossmon, 21÷
22, conslilulionaI amondmonls, 3, in-
vosligalions of nongovornmonlaI orga-
nizalions, 74, nuIIificalion of Novombor
oIoclion rosuIls, 3, 42, 55, 176, oIigarclic
faclions, 15÷16, 21÷22, opposilion suc-
cossos, 34÷37, 45, 77, 173. Scc .|sc oIoc-
lions, parIiamonlary
Iavkovic, Nobojsa, 182, 189
IavIonko, Yuriy, 89
IavIovsky, GIob, 148, 150÷51, 153÷56, 161,
IavIonko, RoslysIav, 53÷54, 55
IoopIo´s Movomonl of Ukraino (Rukl), 29÷
IoopIo´s Iovor coaIilion, 36÷37, 40
Iolrov, NikoIai, 7
Iincluk, Viklor: broadoning of novs cov-
orago, 119, Inlorpipo, 17, 18, 20, 24, 150,
Iabor Ukraino Iarly, 21, modia conlroI,
107, 111÷12, 119, poIilicaI viovs, 52,
supporl of Kuclma, 13
IIasl group, 77
IodIisky Conlor of SociaI ToclnoIogios, 87
IoIand, 131, IoIisl Radio, 116, SoIidarily
movomonl, 80÷81
poIilicaI roforms, 21, 30. Scc .|sc domocralic
opposilion, oIocloraI rovoIulions, lran-
silions from aullorilarian ruIo
Iora Civic Campaign, 99
Iora movomonl, 6, 33, 85÷100, bannor,
67n10, campaign aclivilios, 58, cam-
paign slralogy, 90÷92, coordinalion of
lonl cilios, 80÷81, 95÷96, 181, funding,
6, 97÷98, goaIs and principIos, 89, group
divisions, 91÷92, informalion cam-
paigns, 86÷88, 93÷95, Inlornol, 90, Ioad-
orslip, 39÷40, mobiIizalion of mass
domonslralions, 95÷96, 179÷81, 185,
mobiIizing voIunloors, 92÷93, organiza-
lionaI slrucluro, 89÷90, 101n6, origins,
77÷78, parlicipaling organizalions, 87÷
88, posl-oIoclion lransformalion, 98÷
100, praclico oIoclions, 91, sIogans, 97,
slalo roprossion, 94, lraining of organiz-
ors, 40, 48, 77÷79, 90, 92, uso of loclnoI-
ogy, 90, 98, 178÷79, Woslorn supporl,
185, youll baso, 88, 94, 97. Scc .|sc BIack
Iora, YoIIov Iora
Iora poIilicaI parly, 99÷100
Ioroslonko, Iolro, 2, 19, 112
Ioroslonko, Viklor, 179
IovoII, CoIin, 134
Pr.t!. u|r.µinµ novspapor, 112
prosidoncy, 10, conslilulionaI povor, 3, 31,
32, 42÷43, Kuclma´s oxlonsion of prosi-
donliaI povor, 16÷17, 23÷24, 25, 147,
roIalionslip vill llo oIigarcls, 11÷17,
21÷23, Yuslclonko´s roduclions in
povor, 3, 42÷43, 189
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004, 37÷41, 187÷
88, anllom, 54, anli-Woslorn llomos,
128, campaign coIor, 3÷4, 37, 82, cam-
paign sIogan, 4, 5, 37, 82, clargos of lor-
rorism againsl NGOs, 57, civic consoIi-
dalion, 38÷40, 77÷78, cosls, 152÷53,
dosiro for clango, 49÷50, oconomic fac-
lors, 47, 49÷51, 51i, 148, Iuropoan roIo,
130÷32, funding sourcos, 20, 38, 40, 152÷
53, 161, 163n10, grassrools aclivily, 39÷
40, Ianguago issuos, 63÷64, managod
domocracy modoI, 60÷61, modia, 39, 52÷
53, 59, 88, 93, 110, 117÷20, 127÷28,
IoopIo´s Iovor coaIilion, 40, poisoning
of Yuslclonko, 36, 40, 41÷42, 46, 95, 116,
155, 188, poIilicaI fonco-silling, 59÷62,
poIilicaI pIalforms, 37, prodiclions of
fraud, 4, 46, 79, 87, 95, prosidonliaI
povor issuos, 3, 42÷43, pubIic opinion,
45÷53, 61÷62, 156, pubIic roIalions ad-
vico, 135÷36, 148÷62, 162n4, Iulin´s roIo,
7, 38, 155÷58, raIIios and moolings, 39,
79, 101n9, 118÷19, roprossion of acliv-
isls, 94, roIo of oIigarcly, 47÷48, 49, 53÷
55, 60, Russian invoIvomonl, 7, 38, 61,
148÷62, SyIa narodu coaIilion, 95, 101n8,
loIovisod dobalos, 67n22, usos of lu-
mor, 57÷62, Wavo of Iroodom movo-
monl, 86÷88, 97. Scc .|sc domocralic
opposilion, oIoclions, Iora movomonl,
prolosl domonslralions
Irival Group, 18, 20, 21
prolosl domonslralions: bIockados of gov-
ornmonl buiIdings, 2, 140, civiI socioly,
6, 41, 75÷82, oarIy opposilion lo
Kuclma, 32÷34, 48÷49, 76÷77, funding,
20, 40, 41, 82, Gongadzo assassinalion,
5, 32÷33, 75÷76, 105÷6, Iivo broadcasls,
115, 179, Maidan Iocalion, 1÷2, 40, 41÷
43, mobiIizalion llrougl Iora, 95÷96,
179÷81, 185, numbors of domonslralors,
55, Tlo Orango Ribbon campaign, 118,
pan-Iuropoan nalionaI idonlily, 62÷66,
99, parIiamonlary oIoclions of 2002, 48÷
49, 55, parlicipanls from Donolsk ro-
gion, 62, pubIic opinion, 46÷47, Rukl
domonslralions, 29÷30, Russia´s ro-
sponso, 158÷60, socurily sorvico
210 i ndex
rosponsos, 182÷83, lonl cilios, 2, 41÷43,
96, 110÷11, 181, lraining of organizors,
40, 48, 77÷79, 90, 92, uso of loclnoIogy,
6, 56÷57, 90, 98, 108÷11, 121, 178÷79, usos
of vioIonco, 2, 33, Woslorn supporl, 185÷
86, youll faclor, 56÷57, 179÷81,
Yuslclonko´s caII for domonslralions,
1÷2. Scc .|sc Maidan prolosls, Iora
IR Spaco group, 87
Irulnik, Iduard, 136
Iryslayko, OIona, 6÷7, 185
IryluIa, OIona, 6, 176
pubIic opinion, 5, on consorslip, 56÷57, on
corruplion, 51÷52, on llo oconomy, 50÷
51, on omigralion, 51, on luman riglls,
53, on Kuclma, 45, 50, Kuclmagalo, 48÷
49, 56, 59, on managod domocracy, 61,
on nalionaI idonlily, 62÷66, of poIicy-
makors, 60, on poIIs, 53, prosidonliaI
campaign of 2004, 45÷47, 49÷53, 61÷62,
156, on prolosls, 46÷47, lrusl in slalo
inslilulions, 55, Woslorn viovs, 56
pubIic parlicipalion, 45, Ianguago uso, 63÷
64, music, 64÷66, lradilionaI viovs of
nalionaI claraclor, 54÷55, uso of locl-
noIogy, 5, 6, 56÷57, 90, 98, 108÷11, 121,
178÷79, youll faclor, 47÷48, 56÷57. Scc
.|sc civiI socioly, prolosl domonslra-
IubIic Radio, 114, 116
Iuslovoilonko, VaIory, 12, 26
Iulin, VIadimir: inlorforonco in Ukrainian
oIoclions, 157÷58, nooaullorilarian gov-
ornanco, 130, siIoviki (spociaI forcos),
151, supporl of Yanukovycl, 7, 38, 151,
161, 162n4. Scc .|sc Russia
Iynzonyk, Viklor, 31
Rabinovicl, Vadim, 12
Rada. Scc parIiamonl
Radio Conlinonl, 114, 116
Radio Dovira, 114
Radio IRA, 81, 113, 114, 115
Radio Kyiv, 115
Radio Iiborly, 113÷16
Radio NART, 115
Radio Takl, 115
Razumkov Conlor, 88, on oIoclion fraud,
139, poIIs, 46÷47, 53, 60, 61, Woslorn
inlorosls in Ukraino, 128
Roform and Ordor Iarly, 44n1
Rogions Iarly, 21, 23, 53, 54, 60
ronl sooking, 10, 14, 20
rctc|uiicn lorminoIogy, 190÷93
Rolrabaclor, Dana, 133
Rukl Iarly, 29÷30, 33, 44n1, 71
¨Rusl Hour, 125¨ loIovision program, 113
¨RusIana¨ (song), 48
Russia, 7, 145÷62, oconomic concossions lo
Ukraino, 148, 150, oconomic crasl of
1998, 13, oIoclion fraud advico, 148÷49,
oIoclion modialion, 2, 160, IU´s Russia-
firsl posilion, 7, 131÷32, 141, gIasnosl,
71÷72, infIuonco in Ukraino, 130, inlor-
nalionaI sploro of infIuonco, 145÷47,
Inlornol informalion, 109, invoslmonls
in Ukraino, 14, 147, porcoplion of ¨llo
slalo,¨ 71, pubIic roIalions advico, 148÷
62, 162n4, rosponso lo prolosl domon-
slralions, 158÷60, roIo of llo slalo, 71,
184, supporl of Kuclma, 7, 145, 153÷54,
184, supporl of Yanukovycl, 61, 147÷
55, 161, 162÷63nn3÷7, 163n10, Ukrai-
nian rosidonls, 155, 156÷57, uso of
siIoviki (spociaI forcos), 151, 159. Scc .|sc
Iulin, VIadimir
Russian CIub, 153
Russian Ianguago, 63÷64
Ruslavi 2 loIovision of Goorgia, 177÷78, 185
Ruslov, Dankvarl, 186
Ryabov, 7
Rybacluk, OIol, 28n26, 31, 39
SaakaslviIi, MikloiI, 169, 173÷74, 180÷81,
Scloon, DougIas, 136
socurily sorvico of Ukraino (SBU):
MoInyclonko lapos, 75÷76, 105÷6, oId
rogimo, 23, 24, 28n26, rosponso lo pro-
losl domonslralions, 47, 182÷83, 194n23,
viovs of Yanukovycl, 57, 68n31, viovs
of Yuslclonko, 40÷41
Scgc!nµ. labIoid, 107
somiaullorilarianism, 85÷86, 167÷70, 184.
Scc .|sc lransilions from aullorilarian
Sorbian rovoIulion of 2000, 6, 7, 48, 165÷66,
168÷69, 193n1, B 92 radio slalion, 177,
185, civiI var, 186, consoIidalion of do-
mocracy, 189, docIino in supporl for
MiIosovic, 170, 184, oIoclion monilor-
ing, 137÷38, 174÷75, 185, indopondonl
modia, 176÷77, 185, inlornalionaI in-
voIvomonl, 184÷85, Ioadorslip, 188,
mobiIizalion of domonslralors, 179÷81,
185, NATO bombing campaign, 170,
184, 187, 194n29, organizod opposilion,
171÷72, roIo of oId rogimo, 187, socu-
rily sorvico rosponsos, 182. Scc .|sc
Koslunica, VojisIav, Olpor
Soslanovicl, Sloplon, 26
Sovorinson, Hanno, 127
Slclorban, Yovlon, 11
i ndex 211
Slovardnadzo, Iduard, 6, corruplion
clargos, 170÷71, 194n11, managod do-
mocracy, 169, rofusaI lo uso forco, 182÷
83, rosignalion, 173÷74, 181, Woslorn
lios, 126, 169, 183, 187
Slovclonko, Andriy, 113
SloIokl, Sorliy, 114
SluIman, Sloplon, 63
siIoviki (spociaI forcos), 151, 159
Si|s|µ tisiµ novspapor, 107
SIRIX Markoling Sorvico, 115
SIobodskaya rogion, 149÷50
SIovakia: rovoIulion of 1998, 6, 74, 86,
193n1, roIo in Ukraino, 131
Snydor, Timolly, 153
Sobor Iarly, 33
SociaI Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino
[SDIU(o)j: Inlornol silo, 109, modia
conlroI, 106, 107÷8, 111, 116, oIigarclic
baso, 21, 60, lomnyky, 106
SociaIisl Iarly of Ukraino, 29, 59, coaIilion
govornmonl undor Yuslclonko, 44n1,
Gongadzo assassinalion prolosls, 76,
modia conlroI, 107, opposilion lo
Kuclma, 33, parIiamonlary oIoclions of
2002, 15÷16, 34÷35, 64, 77
sociolaI alliludos. Scc pubIic opinion
SoIana, }avior, 2, 132, 139÷40
Soros, Goorgo, 74, 126, 133, 135
Solsis Inslilulo, 47
Soull Iodnoproviyo rogion, 149÷50
Spivucla pIoslcla domonslralion, 79
¨Spovid¨ song, 61÷62
¨Spring¨ song, 66
slalo capluro, 10
STB loIovision, 17, 24, 111, 117
slooI induslry, 14, 17, 18÷19, 24
Slolskiv, Taras, 33, 41÷42, 78÷79, 89
Sludonlsko bralsvo group, 71
Sludonl SoIidarily prolosls, 78
Summil of CounciIs of Iaslorn Rogions, 160
Supromo Courl of Ukraino, 3
Surkis, Hriloriy, 17÷18, 23
Surkis-Modvodcluk group, 17÷18, 19, 21
Surkov, VIadisIav, 151
Suslko, OIoksandr, 6÷7, 185
Svyslovycl, MyklaiIo, 39÷40, 91÷92
SyIa narodu coaIilion, 95, 101n8
Symononko, Iolro, 13, 53, 59, 157÷58
Syslom CapilaI Managomonl (SCM), 17,
18÷19, 20
Syvkovycl, VoIodymyr, 116
Tarasyuk, Borys, 31, 39
Tarula, Sorliy, 18
loclnoIogy. Scc Inlornol
ToIokrilika vobsilo, 121
lomnyky, 106÷7, 117, 122n8
lonl cily on Klroslclalyk, 2, 41÷43, 96, 181
10 yoars of Kuclmizm prolosls, 78
Tovaryslvo Iova group, 71
lransilions from aullorilarian ruIo, 43÷44,
194n28, consoIidalion of domocracy,
188÷90, 192÷93, roIo of civiI socioly, 69÷
81, roIo of oIoclions, 70. Scc .|sc oIocloraI
Transparoncy InlornalionaI, 171
TRK Ukraina loIovision, 54, 111, 117, 118,
Turclinov, OIoksandr, 151
TV-Tabacluk, 116
Tylipko, Sorliy, 16, 22, 27n12, 52, 67, 136
Tymoslonko, YuIia, 12, appoinlmonl as
dopuly primo minislor, 13÷14, 31, ap-
poinlmonl as primo minislor, 36, coaIi-
lion vill Yuslclonko, 36÷37, impris-
onmonl in 2001, 34, 76, 167, Inlornol
silos, 109, jokos aboul Yanukovycl, 58,
opposilion Ioadorslip, 34, parIiamon-
lary oIoclions of 2002, 15÷16, 34÷35,
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004, 37, 39,
173, SyIa narodu coaIilion, 95, 101n8,
Vcc|µrnµ tisiµ novspapor, 107. Scc .|sc
Balkivslclyna Iarly, YuIia
Tymoslonko bIoc
¨Ukraina¨ song, 66
U|r.inc´s Hcur novspapor, 156
Ukraino villoul Kuclma coaIilion, 33, 39÷
40, 55, 76, 105÷6, 167
Ukrainian AulocoplaIic Orllodox Clurcl,
Ukrainian Conlor for Iconomic and IoIili-
caI Sludios, 72. Scc .|sc Razumkov Con-
Ukrainian Indopondonl Informalion
Agoncy, 111
Ukrainian NalionaI AssombIy, 76
Ukrainian NalionaI Iarly, 44n1
Ukrainian Sludonls´ Union, 101n5
Ukrainian Youll Associalion, 77
U|r.ins|. pr.t!. Inlornol novspapor, 6,
105, funding, 185, Inlornol Iocalion, 73,
opposilion roIo, 76, 105, 110÷11, 136,
178, lomnyky, 106÷7
U|r.µn. mc|c!. novspapor, 107
Ukrrudprom, 18
Ukrsibbank, 19
Ukrsolsbank, 17
Unifiod Inorgy Syslom of Ukraino, 12
Union of InduslriaIisls and Inlropronours,
15, 38, 44n1, 64
Union of Ukrainian Youll, 88
Unilod Nalions, 2
212 i ndex
Unilod SociaI Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino.
Scc SociaI Domocralic Iarly of Ukraino
Unilod Slalos: oIoclion funding, 152, 158÷
59, oIoclion modialion, 160, inlorosls in
Ukraino, 128÷29, 132÷34, 141, 185÷86,
porcoivod supporl of Yanukovycl, 158÷
59, pro-domocracy posilion, 7, pro-
posod sanclions on Ukraino, 133÷34,
VoA radio broadcasls, 113÷14, 116
Unilod Slalos Agoncy for InlornalionaI
DovoIopmonl, 135
USSR, 30, 71÷72. Scc .|sc Russia
UT 1 loIovision, 18, 120
Vakarcluk, SvialosIav, 66
Vcc|µrnµ tisiµ, 107
Vorklovna Rada, 81
Voico of Amorica radio, 113÷14, 116
VoIia cabIo company, 116
VoIoslin, AIoksandr, 146
Vsosvil group, 87
¨Vslavay¨ song, 66
Vyalrovycl, VoIodymyr, 91÷92
Wavo of Iroodom, 86÷88, 97
Woslorn roIo, 6÷7, 125÷41, 184÷86, 194n23,
anli-Woslorn llomos, 127÷28, civiI so-
cioly, 134÷35, domocracy promolion,
130÷34, oIoclion moniloring, 7, 131, 136÷
39, 137i, 185, Iuropoan Union inlorosls
in Ukraino, 128÷32, 134, 141, Kuclma´s
clargos of inlorforonco, 125÷28, modia-
lion roIo, 2÷3, 131, 132, 139÷40, 160, pub-
Iic roIalions advico, 135÷36, roIalion-
slips vill Ioadors, 187, supporl of
prolosl domonslralions, 185÷86, Unilod
Slalos inlorosls in Ukraino, 128÷29, 132÷
34, 141
WoIvond, Ronalla, 127
YabIuko Iarly, 61
Y.nu|!cic, 58
Yanukovycl, Our Irosidonl, group, 156
Yanukovycl, Viklor, 26, campaign financ-
ing, 20, 24, coaIilion govornmonl, 22÷
23, criminaI conviclions, 5, 16, 57, 61÷
62, donuncialion of prolosls, 47,
Donolsk rogionaI govornmonl posls, 17,
23, oaslorn-SIavic idonlily, 63, oIoclion
fraud, 138÷39, 148÷49, inlornalionaI
modialion of 2004 oIoclion, 2÷3, 139÷40,
189, Inlornol silo, 109÷11, KromIin sup-
porl, 7, managod domocracy modoI, 60÷
61, modia covorago, 56, 93, 115, 118÷20,
120, parIiamonlary oIoclions of 2002,
36÷37, as primo minislor undor
Kuclma, 16, 52, pubIic porcoplions of,
57÷62, pubIic roIalions advico, 135÷36,
148÷62, 162n4, Iulin´s supporl, 7, 38,
151, 155÷58, 161, 162n4, Russian sup-
porl, 61, 146, 147÷55, 162÷63nn3÷7,
163n10, uso of Russian llomos, 38,
Woslorn pubIic opinion, 56. Scc .|sc
prosidonliaI campaign of 2004
Yaroma, OIoksandr, 89
YarosIavsky, AIoxandor, 19
Yasynovycl, Yaryna, 91÷92
YoIIov Iora, 67n10, 77÷78, 79, 92, 99, 101n7,
YoIlsin, Boris, 13
Young Communisls, 76
Young Irosvila group, 88
youll roIo, 47÷48, 56÷57, 77÷78, mobiIiza-
lion of domonslralions, 179÷81, 185,
Iora movomonl, 77÷78, 88, 94, 97, lrain-
ing, 77÷78, Ior Trull coaIilion, 101n5,
youll novspapors, 107
YugosIavia. Scc Sorbian rovoIulion of 2000
Yuklnovsky, Ilor, 30
YuIia Tymoslonko bIoc (ByuT), 34÷35,
44n1, 64, Inlornol silos, 109, parIiamon-
lary oIoclions of 2002, 77, SyIa narodu
coaIilion, 95, 101n8, Vcc|µrnµ tisiµ
novspapor, 107. Scc .|sc Tymoslonko,
Yuslclonko, Viklor, 26, advisors, 66, caII
for domonslralions al Maidan, 1÷2, 80,
95, 96, campaign financing, 20, cIandos-
lino Russian supporl, 152÷53, coaIilion
govornmonl, 44n1, coaIilion vill
Tymoslonko, 36÷37, oconomic poIicios,
13÷14, 37, 38, Gongadzo assassinalion,
5, inauguralion, 3, inlornalionaI connoc-
lions, 127÷28, 147, 152÷53, inlornalionaI
modialion of 2004 oIoclion, 2÷3, 139÷40,
189, Inlornol silos, 109, modia covorago,
107, 117, 118÷20, nalionaI idonlily is-
suos, 62÷66, parIiamonlary oIoclions of
2002, 15÷16, 35÷37, 45, pIans for dom-
onslralions, 78÷79, poisoning, 36, 40,
41÷42, 46, 95, 116, 155, 188, prosidonliaI
campaign of 2004, 20, 37÷41, prosidon-
liaI oIoclion of 1999, 13, as primo min-
islor undor Kuclma, 13÷14, 31, 33÷34,
37, 38, 76, 167, 172÷73, pubIic porcop-
lions of, 57, radicaIizalion, 46, roduc-
lions in prosidonliaI povor, 3, 42÷43,
189, rojoclion of vioIonco, 2, 189, roIa-
lionslips vill Iav onforcomonl, 40,
supporl from oIigarcly, 15, 19, 168, SyIa
narodu coaIilion, 95, 101n8, Woslorn
lios, 125, 127÷28. Scc .|sc prosidonliaI
campaign of 2004
i ndex 213
ZaporozlslaI group, 19
Zarovo group, 88
Zcr|.|c nc!c|i vookIy, 6, 108, 120÷21, 136
Zlvanya, David, 19, 20, 28n26
Zlvania, Zurab, 169, 173
Znayu!, 48, 58, 77
ZoIolariov, Yovlon, 89
Zvorov, Sorgoi, 160
ZvialiIskiy, Yuklum, 11÷12, 22, 26
Zyuganov, Gonnady, 157÷58
About the Contributors
Carnogio Indovmonl for InlornalionaI Ioaco, Waslinglon, D.C., and
adjuncl profossor al Goorgolovn Univorsily.
MichaeI McFauI is a sonior associalo al llo Carnogio Indovmonl for
InlornalionaI Ioaco, Iolor and HoIon Bing Sonior IoIIov al llo Hoovor
Inslilulion, and associalo profossor of IoIilicaI Scionco al Slanford Uni-
vorsily, Waslinglon, D.C.
PavnI Demes is llo diroclor for ConlraI and Iaslorn Iuropo vill llo
Gorman MarslaII Iund of llo Unilod Slalos, BralisIava, SIovakia.
Nadia Diuk is llo diroclor, ConlraI Iuropo and Iurasia, al llo NalionaI
Indovmonl for Domocracy, Waslinglon, D.C.
Jnerg Fnrbrig is a program officor vill llo Gorman MarslaII Iund of
llo Unilod Slalos, BralisIava, SIovakia.
Adrian Karatnycky is a counsoIor and sonior scloIar al Iroodom Houso,
Nov York.
Taras Kuzin is a visiling profossor al llo IIIioll SclooI of InlornalionaI
Affairs, Goorgo Waslinglon Univorsily, Waslinglon, D.C.
NiknIai Petrnv is a scloIar in rosidonco al llo Carnogio Moscov Conlor,
nomics, former diroclor of llo Russian and Iurasian Irogram al llo
Anders AsIund is a senior fellow at the Institute for international Eco-
216 contributors
OIena Prystaykn is llo projocl diroclor of llo Conlor for Ioaco, Convor-
sion, and Ioroign IoIicy of Ukraino, Kyiv.
OIena PrytuIa is llo odilor-in-cliof of U|r.ins|. pr.t!., Kyiv.
Andrei Ryabnv is a scloIar in rosidonco al llo Carnogio Moscov Con-
lor, Moscov.
OIeksandr 5ushkn is llo diroclor of llo Conlor for Ioaco, Convorsion,
and Ioroign IoIicy of Ukraino, Kyiv.
The Carnegi e Endowment f or I nternati onal Peace
is a privalo, nonprofil organizalion dodicalod lo advancing cooporalion
bolvoon nalions and promoling aclivo inlornalionaI ongagomonl by llo
Unilod Slalos. Ioundod in 1910, Carnogio is nonparlisan and dodicalod
lo aclioving praclicaI rosuIls.
Tlrougl rosoarcl, pubIisling, convoning, and, on occasion, croaling nov
inslilulions and inlornalionaI nolvorks, Indovmonl associalos slapo
frosl poIicy approaclos. Tloir inlorosls span goograplic rogions and
llo roIalions bolvoon govornmonls, businoss, inlornalionaI organiza-
lions, and civiI socioly, focusing on llo oconomic, poIilicaI, and loclno-
IogicaI forcos driving gIobaI clango. Tlrougl ils Carnogio Moscov Con-
lor, llo Indovmonl loIps lo dovoIop a lradilion of pubIic poIicy anaIysis
in llo slalos of llo formor Soviol Union and lo improvo roIalions bo-
lvoon Russia and llo Unilod Slalos. Tlo Indovmonl pubIislos
Foreign Policy, ono of llo vorId´s Ioading magazinos of inlornalionaI
poIilics and oconomics.
}ossica T. Mallovs, Prcsi!cni
IauI BaIaran, |xccuiitc Vicc Prcsi!cni .n! Sccrci.rµ
Goorgo Iorkovicl, Vicc Prcsi!cni |cr Siu!ics
Bnard nI Trustees
}amos C. Gaillor, C|.irm.n
Grogory B. Craig, Vicc C|.irm.n
BiII BradIoy
Roborl CarsvoII
}oromo A. Colon
Riclard A. Dobs
WiIIiam H. DonaIdson
Rogor W. Iorguson
DonaId V. Iilos
WiIIiam W. Goorgo
Riclard Giordano
}amio GoroIick
Sloplon D. HarIan
DonaId Konnody
Roborl IogvoId
Sloplon R. Iovis, }r.
WiIIiam M. Iovis, }r.
}ossica T. Mallovs
Zanny Minlon Boddoos
OIara A. Olunnu
WiIIiam }. Iorry
W. TayIor RovoIoy III
August 18, 2004
Putin declares his
support for
candidacy during
a meeting with
Kuchma in Sochi.
October 9, 2004
Kuchma and
Yanukovych go to
Russia, to
celebrate Putin’s
birthday. Putin
publicly endorses
October 26–29,
Putin visits
Ukraine, meets
with Kuchma for
the tenth time in
2004, endorses
Yanukovych on
public television.
November 1, 2004
The Organization
for Security and
Cooperation in
Europe expresses
concerns over
the conduct of
first-round voting.
November 21,
Yushchenko and
Yanukovych face
off in second-
round election
November 24,
declared the
winner by the
commission a day
after Yushchenko
is “sworn in” as
president in a
ceremony of
protest in the
November 28,
Fears of
tensions reach
new heights as
regional leaders
in eastern
Ukraine call for a
referendum on
relations with
Kyiv at a
congress in
December 1, 2004
Parliament sacks
refuses to step
December 3, 2004
The Supreme
Court declares
the elections null
and void and sets
December 26 as
the date for
a new run-off
Yushchenko and
December 8, 2004
Changes are
made in
parliament to the
electoral law to
ensure fairer
voting. Parliament
votes to reduce
December 26,
Voters turn out
across Ukraine
for a rerun of the
second round of
Yushchenko wins
with 51.99
compared with
44.2 percent for
March 31, 2002
Our Ukraine bloc
wins the most
seats (114 of 450).
November 21,
Kuchma appoints
governor of
Yanukovych to
the post of prime
July 26, 2004
Putin meets with
Kuchma and
Yanukovych in
September 5,
Yushchenko is
October 16, 2004
Kuchma meets
with Putin in
October 31, 2004
First round of
Yushchenko wins
with a slight
margin, but
neither candidate
exceeds the 50
percent threshold
necessary for
outright victory in
the first round.
November 12–13,
Putin meets
Kuchma in the
port Kavkaz, once
more notes the
government has
made to the
economy, and
wishes the prime
minister further
November 22,
hailed as victor
by Putin after
early returns give
Yanukovych a
strong lead.
claims victory for
himself, voting
watchdogs speak
of massive
irregularities, and
begin to gather in
the center of Kyiv.
November 25,
The Supreme
Court receives a
formal protest
from Yushchenko
and orders that
election results
not be published.
November 26,
protestors for
attempting a coup
November 29,
need for new
November 30,
offers to make
Yushchenko his
prime minister, an
offer that is
turned down.
December 2, 2004
Kuchma meets
Putin in a
Moscow airport.
Putin supports
Kuchma’s position
of desiring wholly
new elections
rather than just a
repeat of the
second round.
December 6, 2004
The Kremlin
backs away from
outright support
for Yanukovych,
with Putin saying
he will work with
whomever the
Ukrainian people
choose to elect
as their legitimate
December 11,
Doctors in Austria
say that
Yushchenko had
been poisoned
with dioxin earlier
in the campaign.
December 31,
resigns the
January 23, 2005
After the
Supreme Court
rejects final
appeals from
Yushchenko takes
the oath of office
and is sworn in
as Ukraine’s new
Chronology of the Revolution
Sources: Adapted with permission of Joerg Forbrig and Robin Shepherd, eds., Ukraine after the Orange Revolution: Strengthening European and Transatlantic
Commitments, German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2005, available at www.boell.de/downloads/aussen/gmf%20hbs%20Ukraine%20book%20final.pdf; and
Who’s Who in
the richest
businessman in
Ukraine, based in
Donetsk. Owner
of the
System Capital
of Internet
Ukrainska pravda.
Murdered in
September 2000.
candidate and
leader of the
Party of
Industrialists and
Prime minister
of Ukraine,
April 2001 to
November 2002.
Leonid Kravchuk,
Ukraine’s first
December 1991 to
July 1994. Former
second secretary
for ideology of the
Communist Party
of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s second
1994–2004. Prime
Former manager
of a state
Volodymyr Lytvyn,
speaker of
parliament since
2002. Former
head of Kuchma’s
politician and
Head of Kuchma’s
2002 to January
2005. Leader of
the (United)
Democratic Party
of Ukraine.
Oleksandr Moroz,
candidate and
leader of the
Socialist Party of
Owner of
Interpipe and
three television
channels. Son-in-
law of Kuchma.
businessman and
sponsor. Owner
of television
Channel 5.
candidate and
leader of the
Communist Party
of Ukraine.
leader of the Yulia
Tymoshenko bloc
in parliament
since March
2002. Deputy
prime minister for
Former gas
Leading politician
from Donetsk.
Prime minister,
November 2002 to
December 2004.
Former governor
of Donetsk
candidate. Chair
of Ukraine central
bank, 1992–1999.
Prime minister,
December 1999 to
April 2001. Leader
of Our Ukraine
faction in
March 2002.
Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics
and former director of the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie
Endowment. Michael McFaul is a senior associate at the Carnegie
Endowment, the Peter and Helen Bing senior fellow at the Hoover Institution,
and an associate professor of political science at Stanford University.
“Keen observers of the recent transition, Åslund and his coauthors write with
authority about the challenges and opportunities Ukraine faces today.
Drawing on broad experience in the region, they examine the situation
through a comparative lens. This book should be read carefully by students
and policy makers alike.”
—George Soros, Chairman, Open Society Institute
The dramatic series of protests and political events that unfolded in Ukraine
in the fall of 2004—the “Orange Revolution”—were seminal both for
Ukrainian history and the history of democratization. Its effects have already
been felt from Kyrgyzstan to Lebanon and are likely to travel even further.
Yet few anticipated such a dramatic democratic breakthrough in Ukraine.
Revolution in Orange is a pioneering effort to describe and explain the events
leading up to and through December 2004 from authors who had on-the-
ground experience interacting with the various Ukrainian,Western, and Russian
dramatis personae of the Orange Revolution. The result is a highly readable,
deeply informed, and insightful volume with lasting value as an explicator of
this remarkable episode in the history of Ukraine and Eastern Europe.




You're Reading a Free Preview